Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 271857Z AUG 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: Russian Federation (RF) forces continue high-intensity offensive pressure across multiple axes, particularly Avdiivka, Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), Chasiv Yar, and Filia (Pokrovsk direction), consistently employing combined arms tactics, KAB support, and TOS-1A heavy flamethrower systems. RF-aligned sources claim new territorial gains in Filia, "cleaning out" the northwestern outskirts of Chasiv Yar and advancing beyond the city limits, and destruction of a UAF stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction by a BMP-3 crew. RF MoD officially claims liberation of Pervoye Maya in DNR. RF sources also claim UAF forces have lost the entire right-bank portion of Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast. Sustained pressure continues near Klishchiivka (Bakhmut Axis), Siversk (Serebryansky forest), and in the Novopavlovsk direction, characterized by trench warfare and significant FPV drone activity. RF forces are conducting air and likely artillery strikes in the Dobropillya direction (Donetsk Oblast) and have conducted three strikes on a settlement in Polohivskyi District, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The 'Shipovnik-Aero' EW system on the Southern Front (Zaporizhzhia axis) remains a significant threat to UAF UAV operations. RF FPV drone activity is confirmed on the M-14 Kherson-Mykolaiv highway, Novopavlovsk direction, and critically, new FPV drone reconnaissance and targeting operations are confirmed in the Sumy direction, showcasing "Rubikon" assets. UAF deep strikes continue to degrade RF logistics and energy infrastructure, with confirmed strikes against railway infrastructure in occupied Crimea (Dzhankoy, Krasnogvardeyskoe), the Novatek gas condensate processing plant in Ust-Luga, and an oil refinery fire in Novoshakhtinsk (Rostov Oblast). NEW: A confirmed UAF strike on the "Ryazan — Moscow" main oil pipeline in Ryazan Oblast and a suspected sabotage incident (locomotive fire) at Sytyvkar station, Komi Republic, indicates expanding deep-strike capabilities. UAF drone activity continues over various RF oblasts, disrupting civilian air travel and causing temporary airport closures. Explosions and power outages have been reported in Sumy, Ukraine, and damage to residential buildings in Rostov Oblast from UAV debris. RF forces attacked Nikopol district communities (Marhanets, Pokrovsk, Myrove) using drones and heavy artillery, damaging a five-story building. RF has launched massive UAV strikes on Sumy and Poltava Oblasts, damaging an energy sector enterprise in Poltava and hitting a 330 kV substation in Sumy, leading to city-wide power outages and affecting water supply. RF MoD claims 26 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over various Russian regions overnight. RF's 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (35th Army, "Vostok" Group) claims high-precision strikes on UAF personnel in the Zaporizhzhia direction. RF 204th Regiment SPN AKHMAT MO RF claims drone-corrected artillery strikes against an "enemy UAV control point antenna" and personnel in a rural settlement. UAF forces of the 78th Separate Airborne Assault Regiment captured 15 RF personnel near Pokrovsk. Minenergo (Ukraine) reports that overnight, Russians attacked energy and gas transportation infrastructure facilities in six oblasts of Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Donetsk (Shchorsa St.): An apartment building on Shchorsa Street in Donetsk, damaged by an explosion in May, remains unrepaired. This highlights ongoing civilian distress and potential dissatisfaction with RF-backed administration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Dnipropetrovsk Direction: RF "Dva mayora" reports activity from the 74th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade ("Mad Dogs") using drones for reconnaissance and successful strikes. This indicates continued RF pressure in the region. UAF Air Force reports an enemy UAV from the south in the Dnipro direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Sumy Direction: UAF Air Force reports enemy tactical aviation launching KABs towards northern Sumy Oblast and an enemy UAV from the east moving towards Sumy city. RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Stara Huta of Sumy region. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF strikes on enemy objects in Sumy Oblast. STERNENKO reports UAF 35th Sumy Regiment shot down 7 enemy UAVs in Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports current threat of enemy UAVs in Sumy Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports activity in the Sumy direction, confirmed by a photo message and a video showing thermal imaging of shelling impacting personnel in a field. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Donetsk Direction: UAF Air Force reports enemy tactical aviation launching KABs towards Donetsk Oblast. TASS, citing RF MoD, claims RF forces liberated the settlement of Pervoye Maya in DNR. "Два майора" shares dynamic drone footage from the 4th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade showing multiple munitions strikes on a heavily damaged building. Z комитет + карта СВО publishes a map of the Konstantinovsky direction, indicating active operations. TASS reports RF forces destroyed an ammunition depot and UAV control point, and occupied new positions in the Konstantinovsky direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claims and observations, LOW CONFIDENCE for BDA without UAF corroboration). NEW: Mash на Донбассе claims UAF struck the center of Makeevka with a drone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim, LOW CONFIDENCE for UAF corroboration).
• South Donetsk Direction: RF MoD claims 120mm mortar crews of the Vostok Group of Forces destroyed an enemy stronghold. Военкор Котенок shares drone footage with a Russian flag and "Наши в работе" (Ours at work), showing aerial reconnaissance or operational activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claims and observations).
• Chasiv Yar: RF MoD (via TASS) reports sniper pairs from Ivanovo paratroopers are actively destroying UAF personnel, accompanied by video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim and video).
• Lyman Area: UAF 63rd Brigade conducted operations involving "special" munitions against houses occupied by RF forces, resulting in significant explosions and destruction. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes near Novomykhaylivka, Karpivka, Kolodyazi, Myrne, Torske and towards Olhivka, Shandryholove, Stavky, Dronivka and Serebryanka. Rybar publishes a map showing "Fights near Zherebets", indicating active combat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Dnipropetrovsk Direction: RF forces reportedly struck positions of the UAF 44th Brigade. Zelenskiy / Official reports Dniprovshchyna was also under attack. "Воин DV" (pro-RF) reports drone operators from the 5th Tank Guards Brigade, "Vostok" Group of Forces, destroyed a pickup truck with enemy personnel in Sosnovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF forces attempted to break through Ukrainian defenses in Zaporizhzhia Oblast with a 'turtle tank' (T-72 variant with added top armor), which was subsequently destroyed by Ukrainian anti-tank capabilities. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on continued terror in Nikopol region, with FPV drones and heavy artillery used in Nikopol, Myrove, Marhanets, Chervonohryhorivka, Pokrovsk communities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF corroboration, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE for RF claims).
• Pokrovsk Area: UAF 32nd Steel Brigade artillery is engaged in combat. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes near Nykanorivka, Novoekonomichne, Myrolubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novoukrayinka and towards Volodymyrivka, Rubizhne, Bilytske, Rodynske, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Filiya. Kotsnews claims destruction of a Leopard tank in Pokrovsk by RF drone operators. Kotsnews shares drone footage of vehicles and explosions. Colonelcassad shares drone footage of a heavily damaged Ukrainian BMP. Рыбарь publishes a map indicating "fights on the flanks of Pokrovsk". (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claims and observations, LOW CONFIDENCE for BDA without UAF corroboration).
• DTEK Enrichment Plant (Donetsk): RF forces attacked a DTEK enrichment plant. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Unspecified Location, likely Ukraine: TASS reports a severe flood event with a rapidly flowing, muddy river damaging structures and a bridge. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Novoekonomicheskoe Area: Narodnaya Militsiya DNR reports the destruction of a UAF military truck on a dirt road, evidenced by drone footage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF reporting, LOW CONFIDENCE for accurate BDA).
• Multiple Regions, Ukraine: Minenergo (Ukraine) reports that overnight, Russians attacked energy and gas transportation infrastructure facilities in six oblasts of Ukraine. Zelenskiy / Official and РБК-Україна confirm over 100,000 households lost power across Poltava, Sumy, and Chernihiv Oblasts due to RF drone attacks. РБК-Україна reports multiple groups of "Shaheds" are currently attacking Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Chernihiv Direction: UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV from the north heading towards Chernihiv and another on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv regions. РБК-Україна reports a Shahed fell and exploded in Chernihiv, causing a fire at an enterprise and two civilian injuries. ASTRA reports RF attacked Chernihiv, injuring two women. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) Area: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (pro-RF) issues a plea for assistance for soldiers of the 51st Army. MoD Russia shows video of a BMP-3 crew destroying an AFU stronghold. "Сливочный каприз" (pro-RF) posts a map showing "Krasnoarmeysk - Udachnoye" and a video showing a drone strike. "Басурин о главном" (pro-RF) amplifies the RF MoD video. Colonelcassad reports on Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a video claiming "another step towards the liberation of Krasnoarmeysk." MoD Russia shares a video of an Uragan MLRS crew destroying AFU firing positions and hardware. Сливочный каприз shares drone footage of military vehicle movement and targeted strikes. Colonelcassad shares drone footage of a heavily damaged Ukrainian BMP. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claims and observations).
• Poltava Oblast: ASTRA reports a massive RF attack on Poltava Oblast, damaging an energy enterprise. UAF Air Force reports an enemy UAV from the north heading towards Poltava city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kharkov Direction: Kadyrov_95 reports that "Canada Group" of AKHMAT Spetsnaz continues combat missions. Zelenskiy / Official and Oleh Syniehubov report a drone hit a regular lyceum (school). General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes near Hlyboke, Vovchansk, Krasne Pershe and towards Doroshivka in the South Slobozhansky direction. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes near Kupyansk and Nova Kruhlyakivka in the Kupyansk direction. OTU "Kharkiv" shares an "Exclusive from Vovchansk." Oleh Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА, reports on recent military activities. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF forces who captured Sudzha were redeployed to the Kharkov direction. TASS, citing Russian security forces, claims UAF has lost the entire right-bank portion of Vovchansk. РБК-Україна reports that Karazin Kharkiv National University will return to in-person learning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF corroboration and RF claims). NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 provides multiple photo and video messages indicating activity in the Kharkiv direction, including thermal imaging of vehicle strikes near industrial/storage structures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Rostov-on-Don: ASTRA reports the "Granit" defense plant was attacked by a UAV, causing a fire. TASS confirms 11 houses damaged in central Rostov-on-Don. Alex Parker Returns reports on law enforcement disrupting the activities of a "Chief Spiritual Directorate of Muslims." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Konstantynivka: Colonelcassad reports Konstantynivka under attack by "Geran" UAVs. "Операция Z" (военкоры Русской Весны) reports "Gerans" de-energized "Ukonazis." TASS reports RF MoD claims Southern Group UAV crew destroyed a UAF ground supply drone and personnel shelter. TASS reports RF forces destroyed an ammunition depot and UAV control point. A map published by Сливочный каприз indicates ongoing operational interest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claims and observations).
• Ryazan Oblast, Russia: РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ report an important oil pipeline exploded on the "Ryazan — Moscow" main oil pipeline. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Mykolaiv Oblast: UAF Air Force reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in southern Mykolaiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kherson Direction: Zelenskiy / Official and Oleh Syniehubov report a drone hit a multi-story building in Kherson, with casualties. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Ukrainian forces repelled 3 Russian army assaults. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of marines destroying an enemy MLRS (BM-21 Grad) in occupied Kherson Oblast. RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Antonivka of Kherson region. Colonelcassad reports RF drones continue to destroy equipment on the Kherson-Mykolaiv highway. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares an RF FPV drone video showing strikes on vehicles on the Kherson-Mykolaiv highway. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Sieversk Direction: General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes near Hryhorivka and towards Serebryanka, Vyyimka, Fedorivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kramatorsk Direction: General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes near Stupochky. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Toretsk Direction: General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes near Toretsk, Oleksandro-Kalynove and towards towns Berestok, Stepanivka, Poltavka. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares thermal drone footage. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares distressing drone footage of the heavily damaged city of Toretsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Novopavlivka Direction: General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes near Zelenyy Hay, Shevchenko, Voskresenka, Komyshuvakha, Novoheorhiyivka and towards Filiya, Iskra and Oleksandrohrad. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) Direction: General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Ukrainian forces repelled 15 Russian army assaults. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of Ukrainian aviation striking several military targets in Kursk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Voronezh (Russia): КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, citing satellite imagery analysis, confirms that an attack on 16-17 August on military unit 108th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment and "Baltimore" airfield in Voronezh likely damaged 76N6 and 30N6 radars on masts and possibly two Su-24 aircraft. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno also reports on a video showing Russian S-300PM2 air defense missile systems being deployed and operated in Voronezh Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kupyansk Direction: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Ukrainian forces of the 10th Army Corps destroyed an enemy ammunition depot. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares drone footage of Ukrainian forces destroying enemy trenches. Сливочный каприз provides a tactical map for Borova – Borovska Andriivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Carpathian Mountains (Ukrainian-Romanian Border): Оперативний ЗСУ reports the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine (ДПСУ) found remains of two people. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Katerynivka: Z комитет + карта СВО publishes tactical maps of the "Katerynivka" area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF reporting).
• Koryazhma (Arkhangelsk Oblast, Russia): Север.Реалии reports local protests against a landfill. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Krasnogvardeyskoe (Crimea): Глава Крыма Аксенов reports that air defense systems shot down an enemy UAV. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Unspecified Location, likely Ukraine: Оперативний ЗСУ reports the wreckage of a Russian military aircraft. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing a drone strike on a Russian position. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a deceased soldier. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Black Sea: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports "NATO watches the Black Sea." Fighterbomber shares video of a US Navy P-8A Poseidon. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF reporting of NATO activity).
• Zaporizhzhia Front, Orikhiv Direction: "Два майора" shares thermal imaging drone footage. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares drone footage of a Russian 'turtle tank' being destroyed. The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration issues an "ATTENTION" alert. UAF Air Force reports a UAV from the south heading towards Zaporizhzhia. Сливочный каприз provides a tactical map for "Stepanogorsk - Primorskoe". (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Sytyvkar station, Komi Republic, Russia: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video and photos claiming a locomotive of Russian Railways was set on fire in the depot. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Vladikavkaz Airport, North Ossetia, Russia: TASS reports an attempt to set fire to an aircraft was thwarted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kyiv Oblast: UAF Air Force reports an enemy UAV in Kyiv Oblast heading towards Boryspil. Kyiv City Military Administration (КМВА) announces an air raid alert in Kyiv due to the threat of enemy UAVs. РБК-Україна confirms the air raid alert. STERNENKO reports a drone threat across half of Ukraine's oblasts and Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Tula, Russia: Colonelcassad reports FSB detained a "state traitor" in Tula who was financing UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Electromagnetic Environment: The 'Shipovnik-Aero' system remains a persistent threat on the Southern Front. RF claims of developing "unjammable" UAVs suggest ongoing focus on EW countermeasures. RF is also making it harder to import "spy gadgets." "Воин DV" claims RF forces are dominating the sky of South Donbas. RF "Rubikon" assets are confirmed active in the Sumy direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Enemy UAVs (Sumy/Chernihiv/Kyiv/Dnipropetrovsk/Poltava/Zaporizhzhia): UAF Air Force reports multiple enemy UAVs across these regions, with specific alerts for Sumy, Poltava, Kyiv, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia, and engagements to shoot them down. This confirms persistent RF aerial reconnaissance and strike attempts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Drone Destroys "Enemy Platform": Colonelcassad shares drone footage of an alleged enemy radio-controlled platform with Ukrainian insignia being destroyed by a strike, indicating RF counter-UAV/UAS capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Air-Delivered Munitions: Continued use of KABs by RF tactical aviation in Northern Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and northern Sumy. RF-aligned Colonelcassad claims destruction of a UAV launch post with FAB-3000. Confirmed use of TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" heavy flamethrower system on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. Nikopol district was attacked with drones and heavy artillery. RF 204th Regiment SPN AKHMAT MO RF claims drone-corrected artillery strikes. UAF Air Force reports enemy tactical aviation activity in the eastern direction. UAF aviation conducted airstrikes at Stara Huta (Sumy region), Bilohirya, Preobrazhenka (Zaporizhzhia region), Antonivka (Kherson region). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Industrial Impact: UAF deep strikes on oil refineries and gas processing plants (Ust-Luga, Novoshakhtinsk), and the confirmed oil pipeline explosion in Ryazan Oblast, have significant economic impacts. The explosion at the Elastic gunpowder factory in Ryazan Oblast with high casualties represents a severe blow to RF military production. Sumy's critical infrastructure (power, water) has been directly impacted by RF attacks, including a 330 kV substation. Poltava Oblast also reports damage to an energy sector enterprise. RF attacking DTEK enrichment plant in Donetsk indicates targeting of industrial infrastructure. The "Granit" defense plant in Rostov-on-Don was attacked by a UAV. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Space Industry Issues: ASTRA reports the Rocket and Space Corporation "Energia" is on the verge of closure, indicating significant systemic issues in RF's high-tech industrial base. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that rumors of "Energia" being for sale are false, attempting to control the narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for TASS reporting).
• Sytyvkar Locomotive Fire (Komі Republic, RF): Оперативний ЗСУ shares video and photos claiming a locomotive of Russian Railways was set on fire in the depot of Sytyvkar station, Komi Republic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This is a confirmed act of suspected sabotage deep within RF territory.
• RF Military Plant "Typhoon" (Kaluga) - Soldier Appeal: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of an alleged RF soldier appealing to "Khokhols" (Ukrainians) to strike the "Typhoon" military plant in Kaluga due to unpaid wages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for content, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE for authenticity).
• Druzhba Oil Pipeline: TASS reports that oil supply from Russia to Hungary via the "Druzhba" pipeline will resume on August 28. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Economic Policy - Gasoline Export Ban (TASS): TASS reports the RF Government extended the full ban on gasoline exports until September 30, 2025. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Other Factors: Over a million mines on Ukrainian territory remains a critical long-term hazard. ASTRA reports a video showing a severely flooded road and damaged bridge infrastructure, with military vehicles present, in an unspecified location in Ukraine. RF claims Ukrainian lands are mined over an area larger than England. MoD Russia shares a video of mine action groups demining settlements in Belgorod region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Air Raid Alert (Lipetsk Oblast): Игорь Артамонов reports air defense and suppression systems working over Lipetsk, followed by an "All Clear" alert. He also issued a reminder not to publish photos/videos of air defense work or drone activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF:
  • Offensive Pressure: Severe, coordinated assault at Avdiivka (T-90M, "fire roller," KABs). Pressure near Klishchiivka (Bakhmut Axis), Siversk, and Novopavlovsk directions. Claims of advances in Konstantynivka direction, near Staritsa, and entry into northern Kupiansk. Active FPV drone attacks on M-14 Kherson-Mykolaiv highway and Novopavlovsk direction, and new FPV reconnaissance and targeting by "Rubikon" in Sumy. Mi-28NM and FPV drones employed in "Sumy direction" and Sumy/Chernihiv border regions. Sustained UAV reconnaissance. Claims of FAB-3000 strike on UAF UAV launch post in Dimitrov/Myrnohrad. RF MoD claims liquidation of a UAF stronghold on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction using TOS-1A. Colonelcassad posts video of a destroyed UAF T-72 tank and a UAF vehicle. RF-aligned Colonelcassad shows drones from the 16th Guards NBC Defense Brigade employing thermobaric munitions. TASS (Marochko) claims UAF attempts to retake Serebryanka positions. RF is conducting Shahed drone attacks on Sumy and Poltava Oblasts. RF forces attacked Nikopol district with drones and heavy artillery. RF 204th Regiment SPN AKHMAT MO RF claims drone-corrected artillery strikes. TASS reports UAF units (from the Sudzha 'looting' brigade) have been deployed to Kharkiv Oblast. RF MoD claims 26 UAF UAVs shot down overnight. RF forces attacked Kherson. TASS claims RF forces cleaned out the northwestern outskirts of Chasiv Yar and advanced beyond the city. Рыбарь reports "liberation of Filia" (Pokrovsk direction) by the 90th Tank Division. RF 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade claims high-precision drops on UAF personnel in Zaporizhzhia direction. RF 204th Regiment SPN AKHMAT MO RF claims drone-corrected artillery strikes. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports three enemy strikes on a settlement in Polohivskyi District. "Военкоры Русской Весны" reports RF's air defense shot down 26 Ukrainian drones overnight. RF forces attacked Kherson. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claims successful combined arms operations on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. "Два майора" posts video from Konstantynivka direction by the 33rd Motorized Rifle Berlin-Don Cossack Regiment. "Два майора" also reports on the 74th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade "Mad Dogs" operating with drones in the Dnipropetrovsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for observation, MEDIUM for attribution of destruction to RF). UAF Air Force reports KAB launches on northern Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Stara Huta (Sumy region), Bilohirya, Preobrazhenka (Zaporizhzhia region), Antonivka (Kherson region). RF MoD claims 120mm mortar crews of the Vostok Group of Forces destroyed an enemy stronghold in South Donetsk direction. TASS reports Ivanovo paratrooper sniper pairs are destroying UAF personnel near Chasiv Yar. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports RF strikes on positions of the 44th Brigade in Dnipropetrovsk direction. Narodnaya Militsiya DNR reports destruction of a UAF military truck near Novoekonomicheskoe. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (pro-RF) issues a plea for assistance for soldiers of the 51st Army operating near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). MoD Russia shares video of a BMP-3 crew destroying an AFU stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Kadyrov_95 reports that "Canada Group" of AKHMAT Spetsnaz continues combat missions in the Kharkov direction. Colonelcassad reports Rosgvardia destroyed UAF DRG in Kharkov Oblast. Colonelcassad reports Konstantynivka under attack by "Geran" UAVs. TASS reports RF MoD claims Southern Group UAV crew destroyed a UAF ground supply drone and personnel shelter near Konstantynivka. MoD Russia claims RF forces liberated the settlement of Pervoye Maya in DNR. "Два майора" drone footage of the 4th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade conducting multiple munitions strikes. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RF forces repelled 15 assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, and 3 assaults in Kherson direction. Clashes were reported in South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka directions. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition publishes a video showing new footage of FPV drone strikes on enemy equipment and personnel in three border regions by "Anvar" SpN. "Воин DV" (pro-RF) posts video of drone operators from the 5th Tank Guards Brigade, "Vostok" Group of Forces, destroying a pickup truck with enemy personnel in Sosnovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. "Басурин о главном" (pro-RF) amplifies the RF MoD video of the BMP-3 crew's "heroic feat" and reports on "concentrated artillery attack" on the South-Donetsk direction. Kotsnews reporting on "liberation of Pervoye Maya" reinforces RF claims. Аксенов (Head of Crimea) reports RF air defense shot down an enemy UAV over Krasnogvardyskoe in Crimea. "Два майора" thermal imaging footage from Orikhiv direction, Zaporizhzhia front, confirms active RF drone-led targeting capabilities. "Воин DV" claims RF forces are dominating the skies of South Donbas. Tactical maps for "Krasnoarmeyskoye Direction" indicate sustained operational planning. Putin signed decrees designating the 30th Artillery Brigade and 6th Engineer-Sapper Regiment as "Guards" units. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims destruction of a Leopard tank from Pokrovsk. "Операция Z" claims Russian Army advances under Lyman, Pokrovsk, and in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Colonelcassad shares drone footage of artillery/mortar strike on buildings. WarGonzo shares pro-RF combat footage from Malinovka, featuring a 'Somali' battalion soldier. TASS reports joint Russian-Chinese naval patrols in the Asia-Pacific region. Военкор Котенок shares aerial reconnaissance footage showing a RF T-72 variant tank. Colonelcassad reports on continuous RF drone operations destroying equipment on the Kherson-Mykolaiv highway and within Kherson city. TASS, citing Russian security forces, claims UAF has lost the entire right-bank portion of Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast. Colonelcassad's animated scheme of strikes on Ukraine from August 26-27, 2025, details UMPK strikes, Geranium drone flights, and explosions across multiple oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Combat Video: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a drone thermal imaging video of RF forces conducting reconnaissance and engaging what appear to be UAF positions. Alex Parker Returns shares video of individuals in military-style uniforms conducting training. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: MoD Russia shares a video compilation of UAV pilots, highlighting various drone models (LELEKA-100, RAM-2, Baba Yaga, Raybird) and their use in reconnaissance and strikes against UAF military vehicles and positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares drone footage of a damaged military vehicle and a pickup truck under camouflage, indicating battlefield reconnaissance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF "Rubikon" Drone Claims (TASS): TASS reports RF MoD claims "Rubikon" fighters hit UAVs, vehicles, and armored vehicles. Colonelcassad video on Sumy direction also shows 'Rubikon' logo on FPV drone footage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim and video).
  • Krasnoarmeysk Offensive (RF Claim): Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a video with a downed aircraft on fire, projectiles, and drone impacts, claiming "another step towards the liberation of Krasnoarmeysk." Сливочный каприз shares drone footage of military vehicle movement and targeted strikes in Krasnoarmeysk area. Colonelcassad shares drone footage of a heavily damaged Ukrainian BMP. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claims and observations).
  • Toretsk Direction (RF Presence): Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares thermal drone footage from the Toretsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Enemy Tactical Aviation (Eastern Direction): UAF Air Force reports enemy tactical aviation activity in the eastern direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Enemy UAVs (Sumy/Chernihiv/Kyiv): UAF Air Force reports two enemy UAVs, one on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv regions, and another north of Sumy. STERNENKO reports UAF 35th Sumy Regiment shot down 7 enemy UAVs in Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of reconnaissance UAVs in Chernihiv. UAF Air Force reports current threat of enemy UAVs in Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна provides an update on enemy drone movement. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports on movement of strike UAVs. UAF Air Force reports an enemy UAV in Kyiv Oblast heading towards Boryspil. Kyiv City Military Administration (КМВА) announces an air raid alert in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • РФ Награждение Алаудинова: Colonelcassad reports Lieutenant General Apti Alaudinov was awarded the "Hero of the Donetsk People's Republic" star. Kadyrov_95 reports Alaudinov has awarded "Hero of Chechen Republic, Konakh" to Akhmat-Chechnya servicemen. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF MLRS Strike Krasnoarmeysk: MoD Russia shares a video of an Uragan MLRS crew destroying AFU firing positions and hardware in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim and video).
  • RF Drone Destroys "Enemy Platform": Colonelcassad shares drone footage of an alleged enemy radio-controlled platform with Ukrainian insignia being destroyed by a strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim and video)
  • RF 'Turtle Tank' in Zaporizhzhia: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares drone footage of a Russian 'turtle tank' being destroyed by Ukrainian anti-tank capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Engineer Demining Operations (Belgorod): MoD Russia shares a video of mine action groups demining settlements in Belgorod region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Captured RF Drone Operators: Alex Parker Returns shares video of captured RF drone operators (prisoners of war). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad shares video of UAF UAV operators being targeted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Drone targeting Pavlohrad: The UAF Air Force reports an enemy UAV is on course for Pavlohrad. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Russian Ammunition Shipment: Филолог в засаде (pro-RF) posts a video showing 720 machine gun ammunition boxes being unloaded for the "Ghost of Novorossiya" project, reportedly for troops in Nova Kakhovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Drone Operators: Два майора shares a photo of RF drone operators. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Drone Video (Stal'naya Gvardiya): Старше Эдды shares a drone video from the "Stal'naya Gvardiya 144th MSD" showing a destroyed military vehicle. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Joint Naval Patrols (RF/China): ТАСС reports and shows video of joint patrolling in the Asia-Pacific region by Russian Navy submarines and Chinese PLA Navy. Colonelcassad also reports on this. Colonelcassad shares video of "Preparation for a parade in Beijing". (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Strike Claims (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF forces struck concentrations of equipment, personnel, armored vehicles, warehouses, and energy facilities in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF reporting/claim, LOW CONFIDENCE for specific BDA).
  • Advanced EW Warfare: Confirmed 'Shipovnik-Aero' deployment. Claims of "unjammable" UAV development. Demonstrated capability to restrict "spy gadget" imports. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition's video claims "Rubikon" specialists are destroying dozens of Ukrainian and Polish-made UAVs. "Воин DV" claims RF forces ("Far Eastern Winds") are achieving "industrial scale" annihilation of enemy aircraft in South Donbas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Force Reconstitution: Ability to rotate units, conduct long-term training, recruitment (African Corps), and strategic planning for winter sustainment. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" appeal for aid for 51st Army near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) indicates ongoing combat and sustainment needs. "Два майора" post on bureaucracy suggests intent to improve procurement processes. "Север.Реалии" report on militarization of schools indicates long-term intent to indoctrinate youth. TASS reports large-scale retraining of history teachers. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports on the deployment and modernization of Russian S-300PM2 air defense missile systems in Voronezh Oblast. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on criminals being released to war. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports RF is actively recruiting youth from Africa, Asia, and Latin America for the "Alabuga" economic zone. Alex Parker Returns shares an "open enrollment" video displaying tactical training. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for observations, MEDIUM for inferences).
  • Russian Amputees Returned to Front (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники): МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares images of a wounded Russian soldier with amputated legs, claiming he was sent back to fight. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares medical documents detailing the injuries of a mobilized soldier with Hepatitis C, claiming he was forcibly returned to the front. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники warns that electronic subpoenas have started being issued and the "eternal conscription" is approaching. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts an image with the caption "Hurry to sign a contract before a peace agreement." МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares multiple photo messages titled "Authorities continue to promote themselves on cripples". (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF reporting, MEDIUM for corroboration).
  • Information Warfare & Internal Control: Robust IO apparatus. Aggressive refutation of UAF claims, exploitation of Western political statements, promotion of RF technological advancements. Strong internal control measures. Active and explicit delegitimization of UAF. Ability to project economic resilience and battlefield success. Increased internal security measures for logistics. Demonstrated ability to implement rapid and widespread internal flight restrictions. Aggressive promotion of a narrative that "millions of Europeans" want to move to Russia. Ability to conduct internal security operations against alleged saboteurs. Claims of Polish border checks for "Nazi tattoos." RF is demonstrating capability to utilize cybercrime. RF continues to expand censorship. FSB reports of detentions for planned attacks (Engels) and SBU agents (Donetsk, Volgograd). The Lipetsk governor's program highlights efforts to manage regional sentiment. Maria Zakharova's statements exemplify RF's capability to frame UAF actions. RF is also using entertainment (iPhone giveaways). TASS reports on internal arrests. RF State Duma deputy initiatives are used to project state care. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Internal Security: Colonelcassad reports FSB detained a "state traitor" in Tula for financing UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Bryansk Oblast: AV БогомаZ (Bryansk Governor) reports on a working meeting with the Deputy Director of the Federal Bailiff Service, discussing interaction and security for employees in border regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Escalated Offensive Ground Operations: Demonstrated capability for complex, high-intensity assaults (T-90M, "fire roller," KABs) at Avdiivka, with ongoing pressure across Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and northern/eastern sectors. Enhanced FPV drone usage for interdiction and precision strikes, including new "Rubikon" assets in Sumy direction and thermobaric payloads. Claims of FAB-3000 strikes on UAF drone infrastructure. Confirmed ability to inflict losses on UAF armor. Confirmed deployment and operational use of TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" heavy flamethrower systems for area saturation on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Demonstrated capability to conduct drone-led thermobaric strikes. RF forces are capable of sustained drone and heavy artillery attacks on urban centers like Nikopol. Confirmed ability to advance and clear areas like Chasiv Yar and Filia, crossing natural obstacles (Volchya River). Demonstrated ability for drone-corrected artillery strikes against UAF targets. Demonstrated capability for combined arms assaults using BMP-3s and infantry to capture UAF strongpoints on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. "Два майора" video from Konstantynivka suggests ongoing tactical operations. RF 74th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade "Mad Dogs" demonstrating drone-led reconnaissance and strike capabilities in Dnipropetrovsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Combat Video: MoD Russia shares a video compilation of UAV pilots, highlighting various drone models and their use in reconnaissance and strikes against UAF military vehicles and positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF "Rubikon" Drone Claims (TASS): TASS reports RF MoD claims "Rubikon" fighters hit UAVs, vehicles, and armored vehicles. Colonelcassad video on Sumy direction also shows 'Rubikon' logo on FPV drone footage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim and video).
  • Force Reconstitution: Ability to rotate units, conduct long-term training, recruitment (African Corps), and strategic planning for winter sustainment. Continued reliance on volunteer support for logistics. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports on the deployment and modernization of Russian S-300PM2 air defense missile systems in Voronezh Oblast. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports RF is actively recruiting youth from Africa, Asia, and Latin America for the "Alabuga" economic zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for observations, MEDIUM for inferences).
  • Russian Amputees Returned to Front (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники): МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares images of a wounded Russian soldier with amputated legs, claiming he was sent back to fight, indicating RF's desperate measures for force generation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF reporting).
  • Information Warfare & Internal Control: Robust IO apparatus with sophisticated methods. Aggressive refutation of UAF claims, exploitation of Western political statements, and promotion of RF technological advancements. Strong internal control measures. Active and explicit delegitimization of UAF. The ability to project economic resilience and battlefield success. Increased internal security measures for logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Intentions:
  • Degrade Ukrainian Critical Infrastructure: RF will continue to target Ukrainian energy and gas transportation infrastructure to inflict maximum economic and social damage, aiming to weaken the war effort and civilian morale, especially heading into winter. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Achieve Tactical Breakthroughs in Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia: RF will sustain relentless ground pressure in key offensive sectors like Avdiivka, Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), and Chasiv Yar, using heavy firepower and combined arms tactics to achieve limited territorial gains and consolidate control over occupied areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Expand Hybrid Warfare in Border Regions: RF intends to escalate FPV drone activity and potentially other hybrid operations (e.g., small ground incursions, sabotage attempts) in northern border regions (Sumy, Kharkiv) to divert UAF resources, probe defenses, and create a perception of insecurity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Counter UAF Deep Strikes: RF will enhance its air defense posture in rear areas and continue efforts to interdict UAF long-range assets (UAVs, sabotage groups) to protect critical military and industrial infrastructure within RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Influence International Opinion and Undermine Western Support: RF will continue its multifaceted information warfare campaign, exploiting perceived divisions within Western alliances and leveraging internal issues in Ukraine to delegitimize UAF and reduce international military and financial aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.2. Recent tactical changes or adaptations

• Expanded FPV Drone Operations (RF): The confirmed FPV drone interdiction on the M-14 Kherson-Mykolaiv highway and new "Rubikon" assets in the Sumy direction represent an adaptation to directly target UAF logistics and reconnoiter new areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) MoD Russia's video compilation showcases the widespread and diversified use of various drone models for reconnaissance and strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Combined Arms Tactics with TOS-1A (RF): The deployment of TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" systems on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction indicates a tactical adaptation to overcome stubborn defenses with devastating area-effect thermobaric munitions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Persistent & Diversified Deep Strikes (UAF): UAF deep strikes have diversified to include railway infrastructure (Crimea), gas processing plants (Ust-Luga), defense plants ("Granit" in Rostov), oil refineries (Novoshakhtinsk), and now reportedly oil pipelines (Ryazan Oblast), and suspected railway sabotage (Komi Republic). This is a strategic adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF Deep Strike Response (UAF): The Ukrainian airstrike by MiG-29s against RF forces in a school building in Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast, indicates UAF's tactical adaptation to use close air support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Enhanced RF Air Defense in Rear Areas: The deployment and operation of modernized S-300PM2 air defense missile systems in Voronezh Oblast indicate an adaptation to counter UAF deep strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RF Tactical Maneuver Planning: Tactical maps for the "Krasnoarmeyskoye Direction" and "Stepanogorsk - Primorskoe" indicate ongoing detailed planning for tactical advances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RF Anti-Armor Capabilities: The claim by "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" of a Leopard tank destruction near Pokrovsk, if confirmed, highlights continued RF adaptation to counter UAF armored vehicles. The destruction of a RF 'turtle tank' by UAF in Zaporizhzhia demonstrates both RF adaptation and UAF counter-adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claims and UAF observations).
• RF/China Naval Cooperation: The joint Russian-Chinese naval patrols in the Asia-Pacific region indicate an adaptation to project combined military power. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF Diplomatic Adaptation: Zelenskyy has appointed Olga Stefanishyna as the new Ambassador to the United States, and Yermak/Umerov will discuss guarantees with the Trump team, indicating a diplomatic adaptation to engage with the potential future US administration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Internal Education Control: TASS reports large-scale retraining of history teachers for unified textbooks indicates a strategic adaptation to control national narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RF Response to Information Breaches: Belarus has detained at least 250 people due to a hack of the "Belarusian Gayun" monitoring project's bot, demonstrating a rapid adaptation in RF/Belarusian internal security to identify and suppress sources of information leaks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• New EU Sanctions (RF Reporting): TASS reports the EU intends to impose secondary sanctions on Russia's partners for the first time, citing Bloomberg. This indicates RF's awareness of an evolving EU sanctions strategy and potential counter-adaptations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF reporting).

2.3. Logistics and sustainment status

• Challenges due to UAF Deep Strikes (RF): Continued UAF deep strikes against rail, oil, and gas infrastructure (Crimea, Ust-Luga, Novoshakhtinsk, "Granit" defense plant, reported oil pipeline explosion, Voronezh airfield, Sytyvkar railway sabotage) are imposing significant logistical and economic strain on RF. Fuel shortages in the Far East suggest broader supply chain vulnerabilities. The explosion at the Elastic gunpowder factory (Ryazan Oblast) represents a severe blow to military production. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Space Industry Issues: ASTRA reports the Rocket and Space Corporation "Energia" is on the verge of closure, indicating significant systemic issues in RF's high-tech industrial base. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RF Military Plant "Typhoon" (Kaluga) - Soldier Appeal: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of an alleged RF soldier appealing for UAF to strike the "Typhoon" military plant in Kaluga due to unpaid wages, pointing to critical morale and internal financial issues within the RF MIC. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for content, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE for authenticity).
• Druzhba Oil Pipeline: TASS reports that oil supply from Russia to Hungary via the "Druzhba" pipeline will resume on August 28, indicating rapid repair capabilities or a bypass. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Economic Policy - Gasoline Export Ban (TASS): TASS reports the RF Government extended the full ban on gasoline exports until September 30, 2025. This signals internal fuel market instability or strategic resource management. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Reliance on Volunteer Support (RF): Appeals from milbloggers for public donations for units indicate ongoing gaps in official RF military supply chains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Russian Ammunition Shipment: Филолог в засаде (pro-RF) posts a video showing ammunition boxes being unloaded for the "Ghost of Novorossiya" project, reportedly for troops in Nova Kakhovka, while highlighting a demand for more ammunition. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Russian Amputees Returned to Front (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники): МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares images of a wounded Russian soldier with amputated legs, claiming he was sent back to fight, suggesting extreme measures for personnel utilization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF reporting).
• Internal Logistical and Procurement Issues (RF): "Два майора" discusses "grebanaya byurokratiya" delaying military product contracts, highlighting systemic internal inefficiencies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Coal Sector Decline: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the share of unprofitable coal companies in Russia increased to 66% in H1 2025. This indicates an economic and logistical strain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.4. Command and control effectiveness

• Centralized Decision-Making (RF): The coordinated multi-axis offensive and rapid propaganda messaging suggest centralized command and control remains effective at the operational and strategic levels. The detention of a "state traitor" in Tula by FSB indicates effective internal security C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Tactical Flexibility (RF): The deployment of specialized FPV drone units ("Rubikon") and the rapid integration of TOS-1A systems in specific offensive sectors demonstrate tactical flexibility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Internal Cohesion and Discipline (RF): High-level corruption cases and other internal security incidents indicate persistent challenges to internal cohesion and discipline, potentially impacting trust and chain of command effectiveness, though the rapid response projects strong state control. The alleged RF soldier's appeal for UAF to strike a military plant due to unpaid wages, if authentic, indicates a severe breakdown in internal cohesion and morale. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• Azerbaijani President Aliyev (Alex Parker Returns): Aliyev's public statements characterizing the "SVO" as an "invasion" represent significant diplomatic friction, which could impact RF's international standing and strategic partnerships. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Kotsnews publishing an aggressive IO campaign against Azerbaijani leadership ('Heydar Aliyev. Path of a collaborator') further indicates this friction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• China MFA Website Change: РБК-Україна reports information regarding Ukraine's administrative division has "disappeared" from China's MFA website. This is a significant diplomatic development indicating a potential shift in China's official stance, which could impact RF's strategic partnerships. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Response to Information Breaches: Belarus has detained at least 250 people due to a hack of the "Belarusian Gayun" monitoring project's bot, demonstrating a rapid and coordinated response to information security threats, highlighting close C2 between RF and Belarusian security services. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

• Ukrainian force posture and readiness: UAF maintains a robust defensive posture across multiple axes, successfully repelling numerous RF assaults in Kursk, Sumy, and Kherson directions, and maintaining active engagements in the eastern sectors. The widespread reports of clashes indicate a tenacious defense. Mobile fire groups remain on constant combat readiness. The successful destruction of an enemy ammunition depot near Kupyansk by the 10th Army Corps demonstrates offensive capabilities. UAF FPV drones continue to actively slow RF advances. UAF Air Force maintains active monitoring of RF reconnaissance UAVs. Adaptive defensive measures, such as the differentiated air raid alert system in Chernihiv, are being implemented. Training exercises continue, emphasizing preparedness. Zelenskyy has appointed Olga Stefanishyna as the new Ambassador to the United States. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video of "Predators" (Хижаків) frontline routine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Олексій Білошицький shares a video of a soldier expressing dedication to his commander, aiming to boost morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Recent tactical successes or setbacks:
  • Successes: UAF forces of the 10th Army Corps successfully destroyed an enemy ammunition depot near Kupyansk. The 63rd Brigade successfully destroyed buildings with RF occupants near Lyman. Marines destroyed an enemy MLRS (BM-21 Grad) in occupied Kherson Oblast. UAF forces of the 78th Separate Airborne Assault Regiment captured 15 RF personnel near Pokrovsk. Deep strikes on RF military assets at Voronezh (damaging radars and potentially Su-24s) demonstrate high-value targeting success. UAF continues to successfully repel numerous RF assaults across various axes. UAF FPV drones continue to actively slow RF advances. The Ukrainian heavy drone-bomber "ARES A1" is effectively striking Russian positions. Operatyvny ZSU identifies Russian aircraft wreckage. UAF aviation successfully struck RF positions in a school building in Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast. UAF General Staff shares combat footage confirming destruction of enemy trenches and equipment in Kupyansk direction. "Phoenix unit" destroyed a heavy military transport truck deep in RF rear. NEW: Confirmed successful UAF strike on the Ryazan-Moscow main oil pipeline and suspected railway sabotage in Komi Republic. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares drone footage of a Russian 'turtle tank' being destroyed. STERNENKO reports UAF 55th OABr shot down 5 "Molniya" drones in Pokrovsk direction using FPV drones. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAЇНЕ FIGHTS shares a video of Ukrainian aviation striking several military targets in Kursk Oblast. Alex Parker Returns shares video of captured RF drone operators (prisoners of war). STERNENKO reports UAF 35th Sumy Regiment shot down 7 enemy UAVs in Sumy Oblast. SSO operations in Zaporizhzhia (РБК-Україна) highlight UAF's continued defensive capability. STERNENKO reports the purchase of 2,235 FPV drones for the "Total Rusoriz" initiative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Setbacks: RF continues high-intensity pressure and claims territorial gains, including the "liberation" of Pervoye Maya. Widespread RF drone attacks on critical civilian infrastructure in Poltava, Sumy, and Chernihiv Oblasts have resulted in power outages for over 100,000 households and civilian injuries/casualties, including a school hit in Kharkiv and a multi-story building in Kherson. RF tactical aviation continues KAB launches in northern Sumy and Donetsk. The Polish government is preparing an alternative bill to limit aid to Ukrainians. Colonelcassad reports several FPV drone crews from UAF's 60th Brigade were captured near Kolodyazi in DNR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Mash on Donbas claims a UAF drone strike in Makeevka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim, LOW CONFIDENCE for UAF corroboration).
• Resource requirements and constraints: UAF continues to rely on public support for critical equipment (e.g., DJI Mavic 3 drones, NGU brigades). The widespread damage to energy and gas transportation infrastructure across six oblasts creates immediate and critical needs for repair resources and humanitarian aid. Logistics disruptions from flooding in unspecified areas of Ukraine pose an ongoing challenge. While international aid continues, the scale of RF attacks necessitates constant resource allocation. Bureaucratic issues impacting benefits for missing soldiers' families highlight a systemic constraint. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Yermak/Umerov to US: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Yermak and Umerov will travel to the US this week to meet with Whitkoff, indicating ongoing high-level diplomatic efforts to secure resources. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF Military Penalties: STERNENKO posts a graph on legislative initiatives regarding stricter penalties for military disobedience, indicating internal Ukrainian debate on military discipline. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Housing Restoration Program: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports on an expanded program "ЄВідновлення" allowing IDPs who lost housing to receive up to 2 million UAH. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Zaporizhzhia Community Support: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares a video of new municipal vehicles delivered to communities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• New Taxes (RBC-Ukraine): РБК-Україна reports the Cabinet of Ministers has approved new taxes on income from Uber, Glovo, and other platforms. This indicates a UAF effort to increase state revenue. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RBC-Ukraine supporting 153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade: РБК-Україна shares a photo message supporting a fundraising effort for a vehicle for the 153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade. This highlights ongoing resource needs and public support for UAF units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

• Propaganda and disinformation campaigns: RF continues a highly aggressive and diversified information warfare campaign, promoting military successes, economic stability, social welfare, educational reforms, and national digital platforms internally. Externally, RF exploits diplomatic friction, selectively leverages statements from Western figures, and promotes narratives of Ukraine's instability. NEW: ASTRA reports German investigators issued arrest warrants for six Ukrainians suspected in Nord Stream attack. This is a significant RF IO opportunity. Colonelcassad shares drone footage of a damaged building, attributing it to UAF drone operators from the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade, implying targeting of civilian areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO content and observations).
• Public sentiment and morale factors: UAF successes will boost morale. International support contributes positively. However, widespread civilian infrastructure attacks, power outages, and casualties will negatively impact public morale. RF IO is directly targeting Ukrainian morale. In Russia, protests indicate localized discontent, but overall public sentiment appears managed. The alleged RF soldier's appeal for UAF to strike a military plant due to unpaid wages, if authentic, signals a serious morale issue within the RF MIC. NEW: Kharkiv National University's return to in-person learning will positively impact morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• International support and diplomatic developments: International military and financial aid pledges continue. EU accession talks are progressing positively. RF is actively engaging in diplomatic initiatives with non-Western partners and attempting to leverage perceived Western divisions. Italy's statement on security guarantees for Ukraine based on NATO Article 5 indicates a high level of commitment. Germany's new military service model, while internal, signals broader European rearmament efforts. Poland's new bill on limiting aid to Ukrainians could strain relations. NEW: Zelensky's appointment of Olha Stefanishyna as the new Ambassador to the US, with a mandate to implement agreements with President Trump, underscores the critical importance of US relations for Ukraine's long-term security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• MLCOA 1: Sustained High-Intensity Offensive in Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia, with Multi-Domain Pressure on Northern/Eastern Fronts (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF forces will continue their high-tempo, combined arms assault in the Avdiivka, Konstantynivka (including "Geran" UAV attacks), Siversk, Dobropillya, and Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) sectors. Trench warfare with FPV drone activity will continue on the Novopavlovsk direction, with new "Rubikon" FPV reconnaissance and targeting in Sumy direction. RF tactical aviation will sustain KAB strikes, with new launches specifically targeting northern Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. FPV drones will continue for interdiction and precision strikes, including against UAF watercraft, UAF field fuel depots, and with thermobaric munitions at the tactical level. RF will continue coordinated strikes on Ukrainian energy and military objects, specifically targeting critical infrastructure in urban centers like Sumy with Shahed drones (hitting 330 kV substations) and energy enterprises in Poltava, causing widespread power and water outages, and civilian casualties in areas like Zaporizhzhia (Polohivskyi District, Uspenivka, Zaporizhzhia district), Nikopol (heavy artillery/drones), and Kherson. The DTEK enrichment plant in Donetsk will remain a target. A new group of Shaheds from Bryansk Oblast towards Chernihiv Oblast is currently indicative of this. RF will employ heavy flamethrower systems like the TOS-1A in key offensive sectors (e.g., Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk direction) to break through UAF strongholds and achieve tactical breakthroughs. RF will leverage battlefield footage of destroyed UAF equipment (e.g., T-72 tank, BMP-3 assault video, UAF military truck destruction, claimed Leopard tank destruction, destroyed 'turtle tank', destroyed UAF BMP, deceased soldier video) for morale and IO. RF-aligned military bloggers will continue to highlight activity in key sectors such as Zaporizhzhia and claim formation of "cauldrons" in DNR, UAF tactical failures in areas like Serebryanka, and advances southeast of Torske. RF UAV operators will continue to target UAF watercraft, as demonstrated in the Kleban-Byk reservoir, and UAF field fuel depots. RF will continue to engage UAF positions in areas like Serebryanka. RF will attempt to consolidate and exploit claimed gains in Chasiv Yar and Filia (Pokrovsk direction), and continue drone-corrected artillery strikes. RF forces will target UAF "Baba Yaga" drones, despite perceived inadequate countermeasures. RF milbloggers will highlight combined arms successes like the BMP-3 assault on the Krasnoarmeysk direction and 120mm mortar strikes in South Donetsk. RF units, such as the 33rd Motorized Rifle Berlin-Don Cossack Regiment, 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division, will continue operations in areas like Konstantynivka. RF 74th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade "Mad Dogs" will continue drone-led operations in the Dnipropetrovsk direction, and conduct strikes against UAF positions, as reported against the 44th Brigade. RF will continue to attack DTEK enrichment plants in Donetsk. RF will continue widespread attacks on energy and gas transportation infrastructure across Ukraine. RF will continue to attack military-industrial targets such as the "Granit" defense plant in Rostov-on-Don, and likely civilian energy infrastructure like oil pipelines. MoD Russia claims "liberation" of Pervoye Maya will be leveraged for propaganda and consolidated. "Два майора" video from 4th Separate Guards Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade suggests continued engagement against UAF fortified positions. RF aviation will continue airstrikes in Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. RF will continue ground assaults and clashes across South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka directions, with potential for localized gains. NEW: RF will intensify aerial reconnaissance and strikes in the Kharkiv direction as evidenced by recent photo and video messages from Дневник Десантника🇷🇺. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• MLCOA 2: Escalated Deep Strikes and Hybrid Operations Against RF Territory (HIGH CONFIDENCE): UAF will sustain and likely escalate its asymmetric deep strike campaign against high-value RF targets. This will include further UAV attacks on military-industrial facilities, energy infrastructure (oil refineries, pipelines), and transportation networks (railways, possibly road bridges). Sabotage operations deep within RF territory will continue, targeting critical logistics nodes (e.g., Sytyvkar railway). These strikes aim to degrade RF's war-fighting capacity, force resource reallocation, and create internal instability. NEW: UAF will continue to leverage intelligence regarding internal RF vulnerabilities, such as discontent at military industrial plants, to identify high-value targets for deep strikes and sabotage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• MLCOA 3: Intensified Information Warfare and Diplomatic Maneuvering (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will intensify its IO campaign to undermine Ukrainian morale, discredit UAF actions (e.g., Nord Stream accusations, accusations of targeting civilians, alleged 'Nazi' sympathies), and exploit internal Western political divisions. RF will leverage diplomatic channels with non-Western partners (China) and maintain its assertive stance on security guarantees. UAF will counter with its own IO, highlighting RF war crimes, successful defensive actions, and continued international support. Ukraine will continue high-level diplomatic engagement with key Western partners, particularly the US (Yermak/Umerov to meet Trump team), to secure long-term security guarantees and essential military and financial aid. UAF will also continue to amplify diplomatic friction between RF and former allies (e.g., Azerbaijan) to isolate Russia internationally. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• MDCOA 1: Strategic Disruption of Ukraine's Energy Grid and Logistics Ahead of Winter (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF conducts a sustained, high-intensity campaign of precision missile and UAV strikes targeting Ukraine's entire energy grid, including power generation, transmission infrastructure (e.g., 330 kV substations, as seen in Sumy), and gas transportation networks, to achieve widespread, long-duration power outages across multiple oblasts. This, combined with attacks on key logistical hubs and transportation arteries, aims to severely degrade civilian resilience and UAF operational capacity as winter approaches. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• MDCOA 2: Large-Scale Ground Offensive in Northern Border Regions (Sumy/Kharkiv) (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): Leveraging the established FPV drone reconnaissance and targeting capabilities ("Rubikon" assets), RF launches a coordinated ground offensive from its northern border regions (e.g., Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts), potentially aimed at creating a new significant front, diverting substantial UAF forces from other critical sectors, and threatening major urban centers. This would likely be supported by heavy artillery and KABs. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• MDCOA 3: Hybrid Escalation with Widespread Civilian Sabotage/Terrorism (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): RF orchestrates a widespread hybrid campaign involving state-sponsored sabotage and potential terrorist attacks against critical civilian infrastructure and public spaces within Ukraine (outside active front lines) using covert operatives and proxies. This could include further attacks on water/sewage systems, transportation nodes, and public gatherings, aiming to generate widespread panic and severely strain Ukrainian internal security and emergency services. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• MDCOA 4: Direct Interference in US Elections/Diplomacy (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF intensifies its active measures to influence the upcoming US elections, particularly by amplifying pro-Russian narratives, discrediting Ukrainian leadership, and manipulating public opinion through social media and state-controlled media. This could include targeted cyberattacks or disinformation campaigns to sow discord and weaken US support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5.3. Timeline estimates and decision points

• Next 24-48 Hours: Expect immediate follow-on RF UAV/missile strikes on critical infrastructure, particularly in Sumy, Poltava, and Chernihiv Oblasts, focusing on already damaged sites. UAF deep strikes and sabotage operations into RF territory will continue. RF ground pressure on Avdiivka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar will remain high. Decision Point: UAF must decide on immediate asset reallocation for air defense and repair crews to mitigate cascading failures from RF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Next 72 Hours - 1 Week: RF will attempt to consolidate claimed territorial gains (e.g., Pervoye Maya, Filia, Vovchansk) and continue probing attacks across the front. UAF will continue to conduct local counter-attacks and exploit intelligence from captured RF personnel. RF "Rubikon" FPV drone activity in Sumy and Kharkiv will likely increase, potentially leading to small-scale ground actions. Decision Point: UAF must assess the long-term impact of RF energy strikes and formulate a comprehensive winterization strategy for critical infrastructure protection and repair. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Next 2 Weeks - 1 Month: RF may attempt a more substantial ground offensive in a perceived vulnerable sector, potentially in the north, if UAF resources are sufficiently stretched. Diplomatic efforts will intensify, particularly regarding US security guarantees and international financial support. Decision Point: Western allies must decide on the scale and speed of additional military aid, particularly air defense systems, and the implementation of stronger sanctions (e.g., secondary sanctions) to counter RF's sustained aggression and support Ukraine's long-term defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

1. Comprehensive BDA on RF Energy Strikes: Full Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for all RF strikes on Ukrainian energy and gas transportation infrastructure, including the 330 kV substation in Sumy. Projected timelines for repair and quantitative long-term impact on grid stability and energy supply. (CRITICAL)
2. BDA on UAF Deep Strikes: Comprehensive BDA for the UAF strike on the Ryazan-Moscow main oil pipeline and the suspected railway sabotage in Sytyvkar, Komi Republic. Quantifiable impact on RF internal fuel distribution, railway logistics, and military-industrial complex output. (CRITICAL)
3. Intelligence from Captured RF Personnel: Detailed debriefing and analysis of the newly captured 15 RF personnel (UAF 78th Regiment, Pokrovsk direction). Cross-reference with previously acquired intelligence (e.g., GRU element) to understand immediate RF intentions, TTPs, C2 structures, and future operational plans in the Pokrovsk-Krasnoarmeysk sector. (CRITICAL)
4. RF "Rubikon" FPV Drone System Characterization: Technical specifications, vulnerabilities, operational range, payload capabilities, and deployment patterns of the newly identified RF "Rubikon" FPV drone system in the Sumy direction. (HIGH)
5. Impact of Azerbaijani Diplomatic Shift: Concrete political or military policy changes within Azerbaijan following President Aliyev's public statements regarding the "SVO" and support for Ukraine. Potential for this to impact RF's regional influence or resource acquisition. (MEDIUM)
6. Authenticity of Kaluga Soldier Appeal: Verification of the authenticity of the alleged RF soldier's video appeal regarding unpaid wages at the "Typhoon" military plant in Kaluga. If authentic, detailed intelligence on the plant's production, internal morale, and specific vulnerabilities. (MEDIUM)
7. RF Mobilization Effectiveness: Detailed analysis of the impact of electronic subpoenas and increased recruitment efforts within RF, including the recruitment of foreign youth for the "Alabuga" economic zone, on force generation and overall personnel quality. (HIGH)

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize Critical Infrastructure Defense and Resilience:
   • ACTION: Immediately task all available ISR assets (SIGINT, IMINT, OSINT) to identify likely RF UAV/missile launch sites, storage locations, and flight corridors. This includes tracking "Shahed" drone assembly and launch capabilities.
   • ACTION: Reallocate mobile air defense assets (e.g., Gepard, NASAMS, C-RAM equivalents) to provide layered, point defense for all critical energy nodes (especially 330 kV substations), active repair crews, and secondary substations in heavily targeted oblasts (Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv).
   • ACTION: Implement an emergency national plan for energy system blackouts, including pre-positioning mobile power generators, emergency relief supplies, and communications redundancy for affected populations. Coordinate closely with international partners for rapid delivery of specialized repair equipment.
2. Exploit New Intelligence Gains from Captured Personnel:
   • ACTION: Prioritize immediate, in-depth debriefing of the newly captured 15 RF personnel. Focus on their unit affiliations, immediate mission objectives, perceived RF weaknesses, internal morale, and detailed tactical information on enemy positions, logistics, and command structures in the Pokrovsk sector.
   • ACTION: Rapidly cross-reference this intelligence with previous captures and all-source intelligence to develop a real-time, actionable enemy Common Operating Picture (COP) for the Pokrovsk-Krasnoarmeysk axis.
3. Sustain and Diversify Asymmetric Deep Campaign Pressure:
   • ACTION: Based on the proven success against the Ryazan-Moscow pipeline and Sytyvkar railway, task special operations forces and long-range UAV assets to identify and prosecute new vulnerable nodes in RF's military-industrial complex and logistics chain. Prioritize targets that directly impact front-line resupply (e.g., railway junctions, fuel depots, ammunition factories, and high-tech component suppliers).
   • ACTION: Investigate the Kaluga "Typhoon" military plant as a potential high-value target based on reported internal discontent and financial issues. Develop a targeting package if the intelligence on its production and vulnerability is confirmed.
4. Counter Emerging "Rubikon" FPV Drone Threat:
   • ACTION: Task dedicated SIGINT/EW units to rapidly characterize the operating frequencies, command-and-control protocols, and jamming vulnerabilities of the new RF "Rubikon" FPV drone system deployed in the Sumy direction.
   • ACTION: Disseminate updated jamming TTPs and deploy specialized counter-drone (C-UAS) assets, including electronic warfare systems and anti-drone guns, to mitigate this threat to UAF forces and critical infrastructure in the northern border regions.
5. Amplify Diplomatic Friction and Counter RF IO:
   • ACTION: Task Information Operations (IO) units to immediately and widely amplify Azerbaijani President Aliyev's statements regarding the "SVO" as an "invasion" and his support for Ukraine's territorial integrity to international audiences, RF-speaking populations, and internally within Azerbaijan, to highlight Russia's international isolation.
   • ACTION: Actively counter RF's disinformation regarding the Nord Stream sabotage by highlighting credible investigative reporting and publicly refuting baseless accusations linking UAF to the incident.
   • ACTION: Proactively counter RF narratives on US internal politics, such as the Soros accusations, by providing factual information and highlighting RF's intent to sow discord.

END REPORT