Archived operational intelligence briefing
TIME: 262027Z AUG 25
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
1.4. Relevant Dempster-Shafer Beliefs (Updated)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Intentions:
Courses of Action:
MLCOA 3: Limited Reconnaissance-in-Force and Force Generation in Kherson, Preparing for Future Operations (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) The 49th CAA and other RF units in Kherson will continue to conduct limited reconnaissance-in-force, probing attacks along the Dnipro, and active FPV drone operations on the M-14 Kherson-Mykolaiv highway. These actions will focus on gathering intelligence, testing UAF defensive lines, and interdicting UAF logistics, including civilian transport. The primary intent is to conserve combat power, conduct force generation, and prepare the ground for either a renewed large-scale offensive or a robust defensive posture in the future, depending on the broader strategic situation. Continued investment in socio-economic development in Kherson will underscore the long-term intent to hold and integrate the region. Mash на Донбассе's aid appeal for Kherson highlights the ongoing RF focus on this region. Putin's meeting with Saldo further confirms this focus on developing and integrating Kherson. RF drone attack on a Kherson multi-story residential building is consistent with maintaining pressure and terrorizing the civilian population.
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations
RF:
UAF:
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
MLCOA 1: Sustained High-Intensity Offensive in Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia with Multi-Domain Pressure on Northern/Eastern Fronts (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will continue their high-intensity, attritional assaults, particularly in the Avdiivka, Konstantynivka, Siversk, and Dobropillya sectors, employing a combination of advanced armor (T-90M), massed infantry assaults ("fire roller"), and overwhelming air support (KABs). RF will sustain efforts to consolidate gains around Stepnohirsk and Plavni in Zaporizhzhia, and push into the northern outskirts of Kupiansk and Staritsa in Kharkiv Oblast. RF claims of "liberating" Alexandro-Shultino in Donetsk Oblast (Colonelcassad) indicate a continued, if localized, drive for territorial gains. Colonelcassad reports FAB-250 strikes on UAF logistical infrastructure in Dobropillya, indicating targeted air support. Colonelcassad's video claims destruction of a Western-produced BMP in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting anti-armor operations. Операция Z claims mass destruction of UAF equipment and infantry near Pokrovsk, indicating sustained, high-intensity engagements. This will occur despite UAF General Staff and OSUV "Skhid" explicitly refuting claims of occupation of Zaporizhzhya and Novogeorgievka villages and UAF successful defense in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast against over four dozen attacks. The 'Shipovnik-Aero' EW system will remain active on the Southern Front. RF tactical aviation will sustain and potentially increase KAB strikes in northern Sumy Oblast and eastern Kharkiv Oblast, coupled with localized Mi-28NM attack helicopter and FPV drone operations targeting UAF infantry and high-value targets (e.g., HIMARS bases, C2 HQs in Trostianets). FPV drones will continue to be a primary tool for interdiction on critical UAF logistics routes, especially the M-14 Kherson-Mykolaiv highway, impacting both military and civilian targets, and actively against logistics in border regions like Kursk Oblast, Pokrovsk direction, and the Krasnoarmeysk direction. RF will seek to consolidate any local gains, including near Orikhiv. RF will continue coordinated strikes on Ukrainian energy and military objects, as demonstrated by recent actions, including civilian water infrastructure (Trostianets) and multi-story residential buildings (Kherson). The newly announced recruitment for a UAV company indicates an intention to sustain and potentially expand drone warfare capabilities. The Ryazan gunpowder factory explosion, while a setback, will likely spur efforts to compensate for lost production, possibly through increased imports or accelerated alternative production. RF reconnaissance UAVs will increase activity near Odesa coast, northern Chernihiv, and eastern Sumy Oblasts to identify targets and cue strike assets. RF will continue to observe UAF logistics and troop movements, including those using watercraft in areas like Konstantinovka direction, to inform future targeting. Despite this sustained offensive, RF units will likely continue to experience localized logistical and medical deficiencies, as indicated by frontline appeals for supplies. RF drone strikes by the 42nd Guards Division near Orikhiv suggest continued tactical focus in Zaporizhzhia. RF will likely continue to intercept UAF communications for tactical and IO purposes. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's claim of destroying UAF logistical/medical points in Sloviansk indicates a continued intent to degrade UAF support systems. RF-aligned sources share video of airstrikes targeting industrial/military facilities in Kharkiv direction. Rybar's map on Sumy border activity, RF 16th Guards Special Forces drone strikes, and UAF Air Force reports of enemy UAVs in Chernihiv/Sumy indicate continued pressure on the northern border. Colonelcassad's video claims of RF infantry infiltration into Krasnoarmeysk and UAF Leopard 2A4 engaging DRG in Pokrovsk highlight ongoing urban combat in Donetsk. RF D-30 122mm howitzer activity indicates continued artillery fire support for offensive actions. RF-aligned sources reporting urban combat in Kupiansk indicates continued RF efforts to seize urban areas. NEW: The new group of Shaheds from Kursk Oblast towards Sumy Oblast signals continued aerial pressure on the northern front. RF military training in Crimea (Два майора) indicates sustained efforts to maintain and generate combat-ready forces for these operations. UAF Air Force reports KABs towards Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration air alert. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
MLCOA 2: Escalated and Diversified Information Warfare Campaign with Focus on Internal Control and Undermining Ukrainian Morale (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will intensify its multi-faceted information warfare, prioritizing internal cohesion and control while actively undermining Ukrainian morale and Western support. Domestically, this will involve continued promotion of military successes (e.g., destroyed BMPs, captured personnel, official awards, military traffic police activities, prevention of drone attacks in Makeevka, Zala drone strikes in Pokrovsk direction, alleged Iskander-M strike in Trostianets, RF 16th Guards Special Forces drone strikes, RF MoD video of UAF equipment destruction, Alexandro-Shultino "liberation", destruction of Western-produced BMPs, mass destruction of UAF equipment near Pokrovsk), social welfare initiatives (including advocating for increased veteran payments, Slutsky's education funding proposal), and national digital platforms (Max messenger), coupled with suppression of dissent through legal actions (Yandex employee, financial mules, billionaire Shtengelov, nuclear physicist Ozharovsky, administrative arrests for social media posts, blogger's wife appeal, Igor Butman firm fine) and increased surveillance (SIM card cameras, Google app restrictions). RF MoD's public messaging on readiness for the heating period and local infrastructure projects (Suzemka school repair, Seletnya church restoration, Kherson road projects) will be a part of this effort to project stability and competence. RF will leverage cultural events to project care for its citizens (Putin's condolences for Uskov, meeting with Saldo). Externally, RF will continue to exploit perceived diplomatic friction (Poland/Starlink, Hungary/energy supplies, Poland vetoing social aid, Polish border checks for "Bandera symbols," Poland on Volyn genocide, Belgium on frozen assets), selectively leverage statements from Western figures (Trump, Merz, Brazilian President Lula da Silva), and promote narratives of Ukraine's instability, corruption, and the illegitimacy of its statehood (e.g., "tomb raider" nurse, torture allegations, SBU agent claims, Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra narratives, death of Vitaly Sakharuk in TCC, UAF sergeant facing charges, claims of wedding rings cut from dead UAF soldiers, Ukrainian MP Bezuhla's alleged criticism of UAF General Staff). RF will actively deny or counter UAF deep strike successes (Ryazan gunpowder factory, Ust-Luga, Rostov-on-Don drone activity) while justifying its internal security measures (airport restrictions) as necessary responses to "terrorist attacks." The formal withdrawal from the Council of Europe will be framed as a necessary step to protect national interests, further signaling a disregard for international legal norms. RF IO will likely amplify Xi Jinping's congratulatory message to Ukraine to project a nuanced Chinese stance, while also leveraging China's anti-drone capabilities to highlight global drone threats. RF will attempt to dismiss UAF innovation and capabilities. RF will frame UAF deep strikes as provocations for Western aid (e.g., Estonia drone fragments) and amplify any reports of Western nations discussing troop deployment to Ukraine post-conflict, or offers of post-conflict support (US air support, radars, intelligence). RF will continue to use discovered UAF military IDs for IO. Maria Zakharova's aggressive diplomatic rhetoric against EU diplomats and the Putin mural in Vladivostok reinforce this. Internal reports like Kadyrov's nephew's impunity will likely be downplayed or ignored in official messaging. Alex Parker Returns using derogatory language is a clear indicator of this. Colonelcassad's video on "new generation bot farms" shows sophisticated IO methods. RF "Почта России" suspending parcels to USA due to tariffs will be used to frame RF as resisting external economic pressure. TASS reporting on solar flares will be used for domestic science/tech IO, promoting RF competence. RF IO will try to exploit the captured POW's statements. "Donbas Youth Forum" will continue youth indoctrination. TASS reporting on falling red caviar prices will aim to project economic stability. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition will amplify German Merz's statements. TASS will amplify RF envoy's statements about Putin-Trump dialogue and Tbilisi mayor's claims of Western offers for "second front." RF will also use psychological operations against captured personnel. RF will actively spread disinformation about large-scale UAF desertion to undermine UAF morale and internal cohesion. RF will continue direct and explicit refutation of UAF General Staff claims to challenge their credibility. RF will also utilize state media to report on domestic administrative events and conduct internal polls to project normalcy and confidence. RF will leverage comments on reported US security guarantees to Ukraine to reinforce their narrative of Western aggression. RF IO will continue to use the MAX messenger issue to assert administrative control over occupied territories. RF IO will highlight US tariffs on India to support narratives of Western economic aggression. The "Russian shelf" law will be presented as a measure to strengthen domestic economy. RF IO will also amplify Financial Times reports on "freezing" conflict options, and TASS reports on US hopes for conflict resolution, to sow doubt about sustained Western support for Ukraine. RF IO will extensively leverage Donald Trump's recent statements regarding peace in Ukraine, potential US sanctions on Ukraine, and questioning Zelensky's legitimacy, to create a wedge between Ukraine and its Western allies, and undermine UAF morale. RF IO via Igor Dodon will continue to frame Ukraine as a threat to EU countries. RF IO will exploit a Ukrainian refugee's murder in the US to sow distrust and racism. Colonelcassad's derogatory imagery ("Fit for beating") and exploitation of a UAF soldier's dismissal will aim to undermine UAF morale and cohesion. NEW: Alex Parker Returns, НгП раZVедка, and Операция Z (RF-aligned) will continue to extensively amplify Donald Trump's statements, framing his critical assessment of diplomatic efforts for peace, his view that Ukraine "thought it would win," and the potential for US sanctions/tariffs on Ukraine, as evidence of Western disunity and Ukrainian overconfidence. Colonelcassad's use of Hamas combat footage will be amplified to demonstrate successful resistance against Western-backed forces and divert attention. Russia's dissatisfaction with the Nord Stream investigation, reported by TASS, will be used to control the international narrative around critical infrastructure. The Moscow River "dragon" video (Новости Москвы) will be used as a public distraction. The basketball player extradition case (TASS) will be leveraged for nationalist sentiment. Два майора's "Frontline Armor" fundraising appeal will be used to promote patriotic public support. TASS reports RF Post-mission to UN stated Zelensky and his supporters are trying to make any peace talks impossible, aiming to blame Ukraine. TASS also reports Trump stated Zelensky's legitimacy is irrelevant for conflict resolution, attempting to delegitimize UAF leadership. Alex Parker Returns amplifies Brazilian President Lula da Silva's statement about the war ending, aiming to demoralize UAF. Alex Parker Returns' "Смеялся" video will be used for subtle social/cultural IO. TASS reports UN's non-comment on Nord Stream, which RF will use to control the narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). * Indicators: Increased volume and coordination of RF propaganda across all channels. More frequent and explicit accusations against Ukraine and Western partners. Enhanced state control over Russian media and digital platforms. Continued prosecution of "dissidents" within RF. Amplified reports of Western "failures" or "divisions." Rapid response to and spin on UAF deep strikes. Continued diplomatic posturing, including with non-Western partners. Legal actions against foreign tech companies and increased internal crackdowns. Maria Zakharova's statements. Kotsnews on Estonian drone fragments. Putin mural. Reports on internet outages. Further administrative arrests for dissent. WarGonzo continuing youth indoctrination programs in occupied territories. TASS reports on economic stability (e.g., caviar prices). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition amplifying Western statements. Continued state-level cultural and social IO. Propaganda reinforcing external threats and internal stability. Videos showing destroyed Ukrainian equipment and captured personnel. Maps showing RF territorial claims. Promotional material for online gambling. News of "Почta России" suspension of parcels to USA. IO surrounding internal security events. Official military awards and ceremonies in RF-controlled territories. Widespread disinformation regarding UAF desertion. Direct and real-time refutation of UAF official statements. State media reports on domestic administrative events and internal polls. RF media commentary on US security guarantee reports. Операция Z amplifying Trump's statement and Alex Parker Returns' criticism of Zelensky's policy are immediate indicators of this MLCOA. Alex Parker Returns' negative reaction to Xi Jinping's congratulation is also an immediate indicator of attempts to control the geopolitical narrative. The БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video of a wounded Russian soldier, if disseminated by RF, could become a significant morale-boosting IO piece, aligning with this MLCOA. Colonelcassad's collection for vehicle convoys, framed as a community effort, can be used for internal IO to foster a sense of collective purpose. The АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video about protection equipment will also be used for internal morale. Colonelcassad's video with political commentary might be part of this broader IO to manage internal political discourse. RF FSB claims of prevented drone attack in Makeevka. RF-aligned Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims of wedding rings being cut from dead UAF soldiers. RF-aligned "Операция Z" amplifies Ukrainian MP Bezuhla's alleged criticism. RF-aligned Военкор Котенок amplifies Financial Times report on "freezing" conflict options. TASS reports US hopes for conflict resolution. Kadyrov_95's video and accompanying text are immediate indicators of IO for internal engagement in occupied territories. Colonelcassad's video with the caption about Leopard 2A4s shelling residential buildings is an immediate IO indicator. TASS reports on Ukraine as a threat to EU. TASS, Операция Z, Alex Parker Returns amplifying Trump's statements about sanctions on Ukraine/RF and Zelensky's culpability. RF IO claiming Putin views Zelensky as "illegitimate." Alex Parker Returns exploiting refugee murder for IO. Colonelcassad's derogatory IO and exploitation of UAF soldier's dismissal. NEW: Continued amplification of Trump's statements by RF-aligned channels. Colonelcassad's Hamas combat footage posts. TASS statements on Nord Stream investigation. Moscow River "dragon" video. TASS on basketball player extradition case. Два майора's "Frontline Armor" fundraising appeal. TASS statements from RF Post-mission to UN. TASS statements on Trump and Zelensky's legitimacy. Alex Parker Returns amplifying Lula da Silva. Alex Parker Returns' "Смеялся" video. TASS statements on UN and Nord Stream. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
MLCOA 3: Limited Reconnaissance-in-Force and Force Generation in Kherson, Preparing for Future Operations (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) The 49th CAA and other RF units in Kherson will continue to conduct limited reconnaissance-in-force, probing attacks along the Dnipro, and active FPV drone operations on the M-14 Kherson-Mykolaiv highway. These actions will focus on gathering intelligence, testing UAF defensive lines, and interdicting UAF logistics, including civilian transport. The primary intent is to conserve combat power, conduct force generation, and prepare the ground for either a renewed large-scale offensive or a robust defensive posture in the future, depending on the broader strategic situation. Continued investment in socio-economic development in Kherson will underscore the long-term intent to hold and integrate the region. Mash на Донбассе's aid appeal for Kherson highlights the ongoing RF focus on this region. Putin's meeting with Saldo further confirms this focus on developing and integrating Kherson. RF drone attack on a Kherson multi-story residential building is consistent with maintaining pressure and terrorizing the civilian population.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
INTELLIGENCE GAPS:
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