Archived operational intelligence briefing
TIME: 260933Z AUG 25
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: Russian Federation (RF) forces continue high-intensity offensive pressure in the Avdiivka sector, employing T-90M tanks and "fire roller" tactics, heavily supported by tactical aviation delivering KABs in Northern Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. The deployment of the 'Shipovnik-Aero' EW system on the Southern Front (Zaporizhzhia axis) remains a significant threat to Ukrainian UAV operations. Force rotations involving the 49th CAA in Kherson persist. RF MOD claims Russian forces are actively attacking the M-14 Kherson-Mykolaiv highway. UAF Air Force issues new KAB warnings for northern Sumy Oblast and eastern Kharkiv Oblast, as well as northern Donetsk Oblast. UAF deep strikes are confirmed against railway infrastructure in occupied Crimea (Dzhankoy and Krasnogvardiyske) and a substation near Urozhayne, significantly impacting RF logistics. Additionally, an oil refinery fire in Novoshakhtinsk (Rostov Oblast) is reported, likely due to a UAF drone strike. The Novatek gas condensate processing plant in Ust-Luga port has suspended operations after a UAV strike, according to Reuters. UAF deep strikes are confirmed in occupied Makiivka and Yenakiieve, with sustained drone activity reported over Bryansk Oblast, Lipetsk Oblast (expanded to specific districts, now lifted 'red' and 'yellow' alerts), the Black Sea, Volgograd Oblast (repelled, but with damage, restrictions lifted), and Leningrad Oblast (over 10 UAVs shot down over two Leningrad districts). UAF drone activity has prompted temporary airport restrictions in Kazan (now resumed), Pskov (now lifted), Nizhny Novgorod (now lifted), and Nizhnekamsk (Tatarstan), and has led to the temporary resumption of services at Pulkovo (St. Petersburg) airport only by coordination. A significant UAF tactical success is reported near Pokrovsk with the capture of 11 RF personnel, including GRU special forces. RF claims to have dislodged UAF from Voronoye in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, advances in the Konstantynivka direction, and new claims of advances near Staritsa in Kharkiv Oblast, putting pressure on UAF flanks. RF also claims its forces have entered the northern outskirts of Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, further degrading UAF positions in the city. RF claims 8 Ukrainian combatants surrendered in Kursk Oblast. RF internal drone threats are ongoing in multiple border regions, and new airport restrictions have been implemented in Nizhny Novgorod, St. Petersburg, Pskov (now lifted for Pskov and Nizhny Novgorod), and previously in Volgograd (now lifted), indicating expanding air defense concerns deeper into RF territory. UAF has announced the next Ramstein meeting for September 9th in London and has publicly showcased a "Long Neptune" missile. Germany has pledged €9bn in annual support, and Czechia has delivered over 1.5 million artillery shells as part of a new initiative. The information environment remains highly contested, with RF leveraging Mi-28NM attack helicopter footage to demonstrate capabilities and claiming to destroy Ukrainian infantry in forested areas. UAF Air Force issued a general warning "Увага!" suggesting an active air threat, and specific warnings for aviation munition use in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF Duma Deputy Sheremet expresses a maximalist view, claiming RF advances in Donbas will lead to UAF losing control of the entire line of contact (LBS), a clear IO narrative. RF claims that air defense forces repelled an attack in five districts of Rostov Oblast. Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov discussed continued space cooperation with the US, indicating a selective diplomatic engagement strategy. RF claims to have destroyed a UAF UAV command post in the South Donetsk direction. A man was wounded in an enemy attack on Zaporizhzhia district. RF UAVs are moving south in northern Donetsk Oblast and south in Chernihiv Oblast. Drone attacks by aggressor forces targeted Pokrovska, Mykolaivska, and Mezhivska communities in Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast during the night and morning. The situation in Kryvyi Rih is reported as controlled. RF MOD reports 43 Ukrainian UAVs intercepted and destroyed over RF regions and the Black Sea. Restrictions at Nizhnekamsk airport have been lifted. Restrictions at Pulkovo airport (St. Petersburg) have been lifted, although previous restrictions had allowed resumption by coordination. Germany reports an act of sabotage on its railway infrastructure. Polish presidential aide Bogucki states that Starlink Internet will remain available in Ukraine, refuting earlier statements about a veto. However, Polish authorities (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) are now actively refuting the statement by Bogucki and claiming Starlink will be turned off in Ukraine due to a veto by Nawrocki. A new RF propaganda project, "SVO: Uninvented Stories 2," focuses on drone operators. RF is claiming to push Ukrainian forces out of Kreminni Les, with UAF controlling less than 25% of the area. RF MOD reports 8 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Crimea. RF forces claim strikes on Ukrainian energy and military objects. An RF drone attack was repelled over an industrial zone in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. Aeroflot is adjusting flight schedules due to airport restrictions. Trump has warned Russia of "very serious consequences" if it does not stop the war in Ukraine. UAF Air Force reports 47 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed, out of 59 launched. UAF 47th Mechanized Brigade claims a "fireside show" on RF targets. UAF Air Force reports a group of UAVs in northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast moving towards Zaporizhzhia. RF claims successful engagements by Buk-M2 SAM systems, including against Su-27 and ATACMS. RF states it has been forced into a protracted war. UAF reports RF reconnaissance UAVs near Sumy and in eastern/southwestern Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, warning they could be spotters. UAF Air Force reports high-speed targets to the east of Sumy Oblast. Further UAF drone strikes are reported against railway infrastructure in Krasnogvardiyske, Crimea. RF claims Serebryanskoye forest in LNR is "practically completely cleared" of UAF. RF Foreign Minister Lavrov's letter on Russia's withdrawal from the Council of Europe has been delivered. Allegations of torture of prisoners by five officials in a Kharkiv correctional colony have emerged. RF is conducting a fundraising campaign for the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment. RF claims footage of its special forces hitting UAF positions, equipment, and drones. SBU reports an agent was detained in Kyiv for spying for RF on TCCs and National Guard. UAF National Guard's "Khartiya" brigade is using FPV drones against RF forces attempting to cross the border in Kharkiv Oblast. RF claims Norway Special Operations Forces (SSO) are counteracting Russia in the Black Sea.
NEW OBSERVATIONS (Since Last SITREP):
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
Offensive Pressure: RF forces are conducting a severe, coordinated assault at Avdiivka using T-90M tanks and "fire roller" tactics, supported by KABs. Pressure is maintained near Klishchiivka (Bakhmut Axis) with VDV elements. Continued probing and potential reconstitution for offensive action are noted in Kherson, with destroyed RF vehicles on the left bank suggesting UAF counter-action. RF MOD claims Russian forces are actively attacking the M-14 Kherson-Mykolaiv highway. RF claims advances in the Konstantynivka direction and has claimed to dislodge UAF from Voronoye (Dnipropetrovsk). Explosions in Sumy indicate RF operations potentially disregarding civilian safety, which can contribute to the humanitarian environmental factor. RF MOD claims Mi-28NM 'Night Hunter' helicopters destroyed UAF infantry in forested areas in the "special operation zone," specifically highlighting the "Sumy direction" in associated videos. One video from Colonelcassad shows a drone strike on a camouflaged wheeled vehicle, with AN/TPQ-36 targeting data, implying a high-value UAF counter-battery radar system was targeted/hit by RF. RF claims advances near Staritsa in Kharkiv Oblast, pressing on UAF flanks. RF reports repelling an attack in five districts of Rostov Oblast. RF also claims its forces have entered the northern outskirts of Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, further degrading UAF positions in the city. Colonelcassad reports RF scouts from the 37th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (Eastern Grouping) destroyed a UAF UAV command post in the South Donetsk direction. RF forces (Southern Grouping) claim to have deprived units of the 100th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the AFU of fire support in the Konstantynivka direction, Donetsk People's Republic (DPR). TASS reports the destruction of a UAF mortar position and a UAV control point/antenna amplifier in the video. RF UAVs are observed moving south in northern Donetsk Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast, indicating active reconnaissance or potential strike missions. TASS reports RF forces are pushing UAF out of Kreminni Les, claiming UAF controls less than 25% of the area. WarGonzo reports continuous work by UAV operators of the 5th Army (Vostok Grouping) to destroy enemy manpower on the Vremivka direction. RF claims strikes on Ukrainian energy and military objects. Rybar confirms this, stating Russian forces conducted a series of combined strikes overnight on military infrastructure, energy facilities, and locations of Ukrainian formations in the central and southern regions of Ukraine. Операция Z reports that UAF are losing the Serebryansky forest and positions near Seversk. Narodnaya Militsiya DNR reports its special forces hitting UAF positions, equipment, and drones. UAF Air Force reports new KAB launches in northern Sumy Oblast and eastern Kharkiv Oblast, indicating renewed air-supported offensive pressure in these areas. Басурин о главном shares a video claiming RF forces are continuing to "dismantle" UAF positions "to molecules" in the Vovchansk direction (Kharkiv Oblast). This suggests continued localized offensive pressure in that area.
NEW OBSERVATIONS (Since Last SITREP):
EW Capability: Significant enhancement of EW capabilities on the Southern Front with the 'Shipovnik-Aero' system, posing a direct threat to UAF UAVs. Воин DV video shows FPV drones destroying what appears to be a Ukrainian EW system. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Air Defense: Targeted deployment of Pantsir-S1 systems to protect rear-area C2 and logistics hubs. Widespread drone safety measures and "red level" warnings in Lipetsk Oblast, now expanded to specific districts, Leningrad Oblast, and now including temporary restrictions at Nizhny Novgorod, St. Petersburg, Pskov (now lifted for Pskov and Nizhny Novgorod), Kazan (now resumed), and Nizhnekamsk airports. RF reports the destruction of 37 Ukrainian UAVs over RF regions and the Black Sea, including 9 over Bryansk, demonstrating an active air defense response to deep strikes. RF claims to have repelled a "massed UAV attack" over Volgograd Oblast, further indicating active air defense engagement and internal security concerns. Airport restrictions in Volgograd have now been lifted. Over 10 UAVs were destroyed over two districts of Leningrad Oblast, indicating active AD response in a deeper, new location. Lipetsk Oblast's "red" and "yellow" drone threat alerts have also been lifted. Rosaviatsiya reports Pulkovo (St. Petersburg) airport has resumed flights, but arrivals/departures are by coordination. Rosaviatsiya also reports Kazan airport has resumed operations. RF MOD reports that 43 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted and destroyed over RF regions and the Black Sea overnight, demonstrating continued active air defense engagement against persistent UAF drone incursions. Restrictions at Nizhnekamsk airport have been lifted. Restrictions at Pulkovo airport (St. Petersburg) have been lifted, implying a return to normal (or near-normal) operations after previous restrictions. TASS and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 report 8 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Crimea. Операция Z reports over 50 drones shot down over RF territory overnight. The Governor of Nizhny Novgorod Oblast reports a drone attack over an industrial zone was repelled with no casualties, indicating active and functional local air defense. Colonelcassad posts a video showcasing Buk-M2 SAM systems effectively covering forward units from aerial threats, including successful engagements against Su-27 and ATACMS missiles, highlighting RF's continued reliance and perceived effectiveness of layered air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Logistics & Sustainment: Fuel price gouging and FAS investigations (TASS) indicate ongoing internal logistical challenges, likely exacerbated by UAF deep strikes. The increased casualties at the Elastic plant could impact industrial/military production or be a result of UAF long-range targeting. Continued calls for public donations for "Frontline Armor" suggest persistent, decentralized logistical requirements. Destroyed vehicles in Kherson suggest a loss of logistical assets or combat vehicles. Propaganda showcasing captured M113 implies a narrative of enemy equipment being rendered ineffective or utilized. RF FPV drone operations on the Kherson-Mykolaiv highway, targeting UAF vehicles, indicate an effort to interdict UAF logistics and movement in that area. Coordination on strategically important medicines (TASS) indicates a governmental focus on medical sustainment. Allegations of embezzlement in MoD medical equipment procurement (TASS) could indicate internal vulnerabilities in sustainment. Allegations of embezzlement in fortifications near Belgorod (TASS) indicate potential issues with military construction and border defense infrastructure. An arrest of the head of DOSAAF RF in Krasnodar Krai for abuse of power indicates a broader issue with logistical integrity within civilian-military support organizations. The potential shutdown of escalators and travelators in RF shopping centers due to new technical certification rules, as reported by Новости Москвы, points to broader infrastructure maintenance issues, potentially affecting civilian movement and morale. Mash на Донбассе provides a list of locations in Donetsk where technical water can be obtained, indicating ongoing utility infrastructure challenges and the need for alternative water sources in occupied territories. A Russian paratrooper is requesting a Mavic 3 drone for reconnaissance, artillery correction, and group control, highlighting persistent, localized equipment and logistical gaps that rely on public support. The Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery fire will have a direct impact on fuel logistics. Strikes on railway infrastructure in Crimea will directly disrupt military logistics and resupply to the peninsula. The suspension of operations at the Novatek gas condensate plant in Ust-Luga will significantly impact RF energy logistics. Два майора has launched a fundraising campaign for the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment. STERNENKO (UAF-aligned) reports RF continues to use donkeys for transporting ammunition and provisions due to transport deficit, indicating potential logistical challenges for RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF logistical challenges and adaptation)
NEW OBSERVATIONS (Since Last SITREP):
Internal Security: TASS reports 8 Ukrainian combatants surrendered in Kursk Oblast. This, if verified, could indicate UAF tactical activity or incursions into RF territory, or a localized RF operation, though further details are required. The death of businessman Sergey Belyuskin in Moscow (TASS) is an internal security incident, though currently assessed as non-militarily significant. TASS reports that "mercenaries from Colombia" have admitted guilt for participating in combat operations against RF. This suggests RF legal proceedings against foreign combatants are ongoing and leveraged for IO. RF organs may gain the right to restrict IT services if threats arise, indicating a move towards increased digital control and internal security measures to counter cyber threats. The "massed UAV attack" over Volgograd Oblast also highlights internal security concerns. Rosaviatsiya lifted restrictions at Volgograd airport, indicating that the immediate internal security threat there has been assessed as resolved. Over 10 UAVs were destroyed over two districts of Leningrad Oblast, signaling continued internal security vigilance against deep incursions. Repelled drone attack in five districts of Rostov Oblast indicates persistent internal security threats across regions. Airport restrictions in Kazan (now resumed), Pskov (now lifted), Nizhny Novgorod (now lifted), Nizhnekamsk (Tatarstan), along with restricted operations at Pulkovo (St. Petersburg), further underscore internal security concerns, particularly regarding air space. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin stated approximately 90,000 Muscovites are currently in the special operation zone, indicating a significant mobilization effort with direct impact on the capital's population. The lifting of restrictions at Nizhnekamsk and Pulkovo airports by Rosaviatsiya indicates the resolution of immediate internal security threats in those specific airspaces. The reported interception of 43 Ukrainian UAVs over RF territory and the Black Sea is a direct indicator of ongoing internal security challenges from aerial incursions. The additional 8 UAVs intercepted over Crimea further solidify this trend. Operatsiya Z reports over 50 drones shot down over RF territory. TASS reports video cameras will be installed at SIM card sales points from Sep 1, indicating increased internal surveillance measures. The Governor of Nizhny Novgorod Oblast reports a drone attack over an industrial zone was repelled with no casualties, indicating active and functional local air defense. Sever.Realii reports the detention of activist Pavel Krysevich in Moscow for disobeying police, indicating continued internal crackdowns on dissent. Aeroflot is adjusting flight schedules due to airport restrictions, directly impacting civilian travel within RF due to security concerns. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that FSB General Aleksey Titov was seriously wounded in an explosion at a Moscow children's store on August 24th, potentially indicating internal sabotage or UAF deep strike. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports the death of a stylist's nephew in the "SVO zone," indicating sustained casualties. Sever.Realii reports a student arrested in Syktyvkar for attempted sabotage. TASS reports that MinTsifry (Ministry of Digital Development) has developed a second package of measures to counter fraudsters, aimed at strengthening citizen protection, indicating ongoing cybercrime concerns and efforts to enhance internal digital security. TASS reports that Major General of Medical Service Konstantin Kuvshinov has been placed under arrest for large-scale fraud, indicating internal corruption within the RF military. TASS reports that teenagers in three regions of Russia have been convicted of terrorist crimes, indicating ongoing internal security issues with radicalized youth. TASS reports the interim deputy governor of Kursk Oblast, Bazarov, has been transferred to Moscow, indicating a high-level corruption investigation or internal political maneuvering. TASS reports one of the Crocus terrorists hid in a tree. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW OBSERVATIONS (Since Last SITREP):
Information Operations (IO):
Tactical Adaptation: Studying captured Western weapons (C7NLD by Воин DV, M113 by Colonelcassad) indicates an attempt to understand and potentially counter UAF equipment. Claims of success in Kharkiv direction by Akhmat SpN. Observed advancements in Konstantynivka and Voronoye. RF is adapting by increasingly deploying FPV drones for interdiction on critical UAF routes (e.g., Kherson-Mykolaiv highway), and demonstrating increased precision in FPV drone strikes against vehicles. The claimed operations of Mi-28NM helicopters and drone strikes in the Sumy direction, if verified, indicate an adaptation to use rotary-wing assets and potentially armed drones for localized offensive operations against UAF infantry and high-value targets in northern Ukraine. RF's response to the "massed UAV attack" in Volgograd Oblast indicates an adaptation to persistent deep strikes by UAF, engaging its air defense assets in more geographically dispersed areas. The potential for RF authorities to restrict IT services is an adaptation to perceived cyber threats, strengthening digital control measures. The destruction of over 10 UAVs in Leningrad Oblast demonstrates RF's continued adaptation and expansion of air defense coverage to deter or intercept deep UAF drone incursions. Repelling drone attacks in Rostov Oblast demonstrate continued adaptation of air defense to internal threats. RF claims of advancing near Staritsa in Kharkiv Oblast and entering the northern outskirts of Kupiansk indicate a tactical adaptation to create new areas of pressure on UAF flanks, potentially to stretch UAF resources or achieve local breakthroughs. The reported destruction of a UAF UAV command post in the South Donetsk direction indicates an adaptation in counter-UAV and reconnaissance-strike operations. The claimed successful destruction of a UAF mortar position and UAV control point in the Konstantynivka direction indicates an adaptation for targeting UAF C2 and fire support assets with reconnaissance-strike complexes. Continued observation of RF UAVs in northern Donetsk and Chernihiv Oblasts shows an adaptation to maintain persistent ISR in various sectors. The reported interception of 43 Ukrainian UAVs across RF and the Black Sea indicates continuous adaptation of RF air defense to persistent drone threats. The deployment of UAV units to CBRN defense forces indicates an adaptation to expand drone usage into specialized military branches. The confirmed strikes on Ukrainian energy and military objects indicate an adaptation to conduct combined, synchronized attacks against strategic targets. Операция Z reports UAF losing Serebryansky forest, indicating successful RF tactical adaptation in forested terrain. Воин DV video showing FPV drones adapted for targeting and destroying Ukrainian EW system demonstrates adaptation in targeting and destroying key UAF assets. Colonelcassad's video on Buk-M2 SAM systems highlights adaptation in layered air defense and counter-drone tactics. Narodnaya Militsiya DNR reports its special forces hitting UAF positions, equipment, and drones. Басурин о главном shares videos of claimed RF strikes in Vovchansk, demonstrating adaptation to localized offensive pressure in the Kharkiv direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of an individual examining a downed drone in Krasnoarmeysk, which could be part of RF's adaptation to analyze captured or downed UAF technology. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW OBSERVATIONS (Since Last SITREP):
Command and Control: The coordinated Avdiivka assault, KAB deployment, and targeted EW/AD assets indicate functional C2. However, the Sberbank app removal indicates a vulnerability in digital infrastructure. Internal incidents (Rostov Oblast serviceman death) and Lipetsk drone warnings suggest localized discipline and internal security issues, and an inability to prevent deep strikes. The rapid reporting of destroyed UAVs across multiple RF channels indicates a coordinated C2 for public information management on internal threats. The new integration of electronic signatures into the "Max" messenger suggests an effort to streamline secure internal communication/administration. The capture of Ukrainian combatants in Kursk Oblast, if verified, could indicate effective localized RF C2 for border security. The proposed draft deferment for cybersecurity specialists suggests RF C2 is attempting to address strategic workforce needs. The GRU's explicit launch of an IO project (Операция Z) demonstrates centralized, institutionalized C2 over this domain. The allegations of embezzlement in the MoD (TASS) and the new allegations of corruption in Belgorod fortifications (TASS) highlight potential C2 weaknesses in oversight and accountability for procurement/construction. The reporting on the Gaza hospital strike and Colombian mercenaries indicates centralized C2 over opportunistic information operations designed to shape global narratives. The move to denounce the anti-torture convention indicates a centralized C2 decision to further isolate RF from international legal frameworks, likely to provide operational flexibility for harsh treatment of PoWs. The immediate reporting of Mi-28NM operations and drone strikes in the Sumy direction, coupled with airport restrictions in deep RF territory, demonstrates a responsive and coordinated C2 for both military operations and public information management in response to internal threats. The rapid public reporting of the "massed UAV attack" over Volgograd Oblast indicates responsive C2 for internal threat management and public messaging. The plan for RF organs to restrict IT services suggests a centralized C2 decision to enhance digital control. The lifting of airport restrictions in Volgograd by Rosaviatsiya indicates a functional C2 for managing temporary airspace closures and public communication during internal security incidents. The destruction of over 10 UAVs over Leningrad Oblast, promptly reported by the governor, also indicates effective localized C2 for air defense response and public information. The temporary closure of Kazan airport (now resumed) and subsequent lifting of restrictions in Pskov and Nizhny Novgorod demonstrates functional C2 for managing airspace during perceived threats. Repelled attacks in Rostov Oblast further indicate responsive C2 for air defense. The arrest of the DOSAAF Krasnodar Krai head indicates C2 is addressing internal corruption within military support structures. The promotion of "Max" messenger channels (Операция Z) demonstrates centralized C2 for expanding digital information control. Manturov's comments on space cooperation indicate C2 for strategic diplomatic engagement. The temporary restriction at Nizhnekamsk airport indicates responsive C2 for managing airspace during perceived threats. Rosaviatsiya's report on Pulkovo (St. Petersburg) airport resuming flights by coordination further shows adaptive C2 for maintaining air traffic control during security incidents. The claimed destruction of a UAF mortar position and UAV control point in the Konstantynivka direction suggests effective reconnaissance-strike C2 for targeting UAF fire support and C2 assets. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin's statements on Muscovites in the "special operation zone" and reconstruction efforts in Donetsk indicate centralized C2 over public messaging and resource allocation regarding the conflict and occupied territories. The lifting of restrictions at Nizhnekamsk and Pulkovo airports by Rosaviatsiya indicates a functional C2 for managing temporary airspace closures and public communication during internal security incidents. The reported 43 UAV interceptions demonstrates continued C2 for air defense operations. The successful destruction of 8 UAVs over Crimea indicates functional C2 for air defense in occupied territories. Operatsiya Z reports over 50 drones shot down, indicating significant internal security challenges. The deployment of UAV units to CBRN defense forces indicates C2 for specialized unit integration. The reported wounding of FSB General Titov in a Moscow explosion, if confirmed as a deliberate act, would indicate a significant internal security C2 failure. The Aeroflot flight adjustments due to airport restrictions indicate C2 for managing civilian air traffic in response to security incidents. The Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery fire and Crimea railway strikes indicate a C2 failure in preventing UAF deep strikes against critical infrastructure, but the response of Narodnaya Militsiya DNR with special forces demonstrates localized C2 effectiveness. The arrest of a student for attempted sabotage in Syktyvkar indicates C2 for internal security. Alex Parker Returns' report on Lavrov's letter being delivered signifies centralized C2 for diplomatic actions. Rosaviatsiya reports the unplanned landing of an Air China flight at Nizhnevartovsk due to engine malfunction, indicating C2 for managing civilian air emergencies. Rosaviatsiya also reports a reserve aircraft will transport passengers. TASS reports the arrest of Major General Konstantin Kuvshinov for large-scale fraud, indicating C2's ongoing efforts to address corruption within the RF military. TASS reports the conviction of teenagers for terrorist crimes, indicating C2 for internal security and counter-terrorism. The transfer of Kursk Oblast interim deputy governor Bazarov to Moscow suggests C2 for managing high-profile corruption or political cases. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for military C2, MEDIUM for overall digital resilience/internal discipline/internal security/procurement oversight).
NEW OBSERVATIONS (Since Last SITREP):
1.4. Relevant Dempster-Shafer Beliefs (Updated)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
Sustained High-Intensity Offensive in Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia, with Expanded Air Operations in Northern/Eastern Sectors (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will continue the coordinated "fire roller" assault at Avdiivka, committing T-90M tanks, concentrated artillery, and KABs. This will be mirrored by persistent probing and localized offensive actions in the Konstantynivka, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Novopavlivka, Toretsk, Kramatorsk, Sieversk, Lyman, Kupyansk, and South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) directions, as indicated by UAF General Staff reports of yesterday's clashes. The 'Shipovnik-Aero' EW system will be fully utilized on the Southern Front to suppress UAF UAVs. RF tactical aviation will continue KAB strikes in Northern Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and critically, will increase their use in northern Sumy Oblast and eastern Kharkiv Oblast. Mi-28NM attack helicopters and armed drones will conduct localized offensive operations against UAF infantry and high-value targets (e.g., AN/TPQ-36 radar) in the Sumy direction. RF FPV drones will continue to interdict UAF movements and logistics, particularly on the M-14 Kherson-Mykolaiv highway. RF will continue to attempt to consolidate gains in areas like Plavni (near Stepnohirsk).
Intensified, Multi-faceted Information Warfare Campaign (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will escalate its multi-domain IO, explicitly leveraging AI for propaganda. This will include amplified dehumanization of Ukrainians, discrediting UAF mobilization efforts with false narratives (e.g., mass flight to Belarus), and justifying RF actions (e.g., withdrawal from torture convention). RF IO will continue to sow discord within Western alliances by exploiting diplomatic friction with Poland and Hungary (Druzhba pipeline, Bandera symbolism), and selectively amplifying US political figures (Trump) to question Western support for Ukraine. RF will promote narratives of its military successes (Avdiivka, claimed advances, drone effectiveness, Buk-M2 SAMs) and internal stability (Moscow Mayor Sobyanin's statements, cultural festivals), while deflecting internal discontent regarding resource shortages and corruption (drone procurement complaints). Expect fabricated narratives (e.g., North Korean volunteers) to continue to be used to project international support. RF will continue to manage public anxiety over deep strikes by rapidly reporting UAV shoot-downs (Volgograd, Leningrad, Rostov, Crimea, Nizhny Novgorod) while justifying internal security measures (airport restrictions, IT service limitations) as necessary responses to UAF aggression.
Reinforced Border Security and Counter-Infiltration Operations with Increased Internal Controls (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): RF will maintain a heightened alert posture along its border regions, including Kursk and Sumy Oblasts, to counter UAF cross-border infiltration and reconnaissance, as evidenced by continued UAF reports of repelling RF assaults. Internal security measures, such as drone restrictions around airports in deeper RF territory, video cameras at SIM card sales points, and counter-fraud measures, will be enforced to mitigate internal threats from deep UAF strikes or sabotage. RF will continue to pursue investigations into corruption related to defense infrastructure and internal security, likely resulting in further arrests or transfers of officials.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
Successful Breakthrough and Encirclement at Avdiivka, Exploiting Weakened UAF Logistics/C2 (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF achieves a decisive tactical breakthrough at Avdiivka, rapidly advancing to encircle UAF forces. This success is amplified by the 'Shipovnik-Aero' system effectively neutralizing UAF UAV ISR and fire support capabilities, and simultaneous, successful RF communication disruption (as claimed in Konstantynivka). This could be coupled with a significant RF advance in Kharkiv Oblast (Staritsa/Kupiansk) or Siversk, forcing UAF to divert critical reserves from other fronts and severely compromising defensive posture.
Strategic Deep Strike on Critical UAF Command/Logistics Hubs Coupled with Major Cyberattack and Sustained EW Offensive (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): RF conducts a coordinated series of deep precision strikes (missiles, KABs, long-range drones) against critical UAF military command centers, logistics nodes, and air defense assets (perhaps identified via intensified ISR from Mi-28NM/UAVs) simultaneously with a large-scale, disruptive cyberattack targeting UAF C2 and communication networks. This is sustained by the widespread and effective deployment of advanced EW (e.g., 'Shipovnik-Aero') to degrade UAF's ability to respond, allowing localized ground offensives to exploit the resulting confusion and disarray. This could also involve the effective use of a captured 'Zemledelie' mining system, if indeed such a system was targeted.
Exploitation of European Disunity and Weaponization of Human Rights (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF successfully isolates Ukraine
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