Archived operational intelligence briefing
TIME: 260833Z AUG 25
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: Russian Federation (RF) forces continue high-intensity offensive pressure in the Avdiivka sector, employing T-90M tanks and "fire roller" tactics, heavily supported by tactical aviation delivering KABs in Northern Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. The deployment of the 'Shipovnik-Aero' EW system on the Southern Front (Zaporizhzhia axis) remains a significant threat to Ukrainian UAV operations. Force rotations involving the 49th CAA in Kherson persist. RF MOD claims Russian forces are actively attacking the M-14 Kherson-Mykolaiv highway. UAF Air Force issues new KAB warnings for northern Sumy Oblast and eastern Kharkiv Oblast, as well as northern Donetsk Oblast. UAF deep strikes are confirmed against railway infrastructure in occupied Crimea (Dzhankoy and Krasnogvardiyske) and a substation near Urozhayne, significantly impacting RF logistics. Additionally, an oil refinery fire in Novoshakhtinsk (Rostov Oblast) is reported, likely due to a UAF drone strike. The Novatek gas condensate processing plant in Ust-Luga port has suspended operations after a UAV strike, according to Reuters. UAF deep strikes are confirmed in occupied Makiivka and Yenakiieve, with sustained drone activity reported over Bryansk Oblast, Lipetsk Oblast (expanded to specific districts, now lifted 'red' and 'yellow' alerts), the Black Sea, Volgograd Oblast (repelled, but with damage, restrictions lifted), and Leningrad Oblast (over 10 UAVs shot down over two Leningrad districts). UAF drone activity has prompted temporary airport restrictions in Kazan (now resumed), Pskov (now lifted), Nizhny Novgorod (now lifted), and Nizhnekamsk (Tatarstan), and has led to the temporary resumption of services at Pulkovo (St. Petersburg) airport only by coordination. A significant UAF tactical success is reported near Pokrovsk with the capture of 11 RF personnel, including GRU special forces. RF claims to have dislodged UAF from Voronoye in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, advances in the Konstantynivka direction, and new claims of advances near Staritsa in Kharkiv Oblast, putting pressure on UAF flanks. RF also claims its forces have entered the northern outskirts of Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, further degrading UAF positions in the city. RF claims 8 Ukrainian combatants surrendered in Kursk Oblast. RF internal drone threats are ongoing in multiple border regions, and new airport restrictions have been implemented in Nizhny Novgorod, St. Petersburg, Pskov (now lifted for Pskov and Nizhny Novgorod), and previously in Volgograd (now lifted), indicating expanding air defense concerns deeper into RF territory. UAF has announced the next Ramstein meeting for September 9th in London and has publicly showcased a "Long Neptune" missile. Germany has pledged €9bn in annual support, and Czechia has delivered over 1.5 million artillery shells as part of a new initiative. The information environment remains highly contested, with RF leveraging Mi-28NM attack helicopter footage to demonstrate capabilities and claiming to destroy Ukrainian infantry in forested areas. UAF Air Force issued a general warning "Увага!" suggesting an active air threat, and specific warnings for aviation munition use in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF Duma Deputy Sheremet expresses a maximalist view, claiming RF advances in Donbas will lead to UAF losing control of the entire line of contact (LBS), a clear IO narrative. RF claims that air defense forces repelled an attack in five districts of Rostov Oblast. Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov discussed continued space cooperation with the US, indicating a selective diplomatic engagement strategy. RF claims to have destroyed a UAF UAV command post in the South Donetsk direction. A man was wounded in an enemy attack on Zaporizhzhia district. RF UAVs are moving south in northern Donetsk Oblast and south in Chernihiv Oblast. Drone attacks by aggressor forces targeted Pokrovska, Mykolaivska, and Mezhivska communities in Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast during the night and morning. The situation in Kryvyi Rih is reported as controlled. RF MOD reports 43 Ukrainian UAVs intercepted and destroyed over RF regions and the Black Sea. Restrictions at Nizhnekamsk airport have been lifted. Restrictions at Pulkovo airport (St. Petersburg) have been lifted, although previous restrictions had allowed resumption by coordination. Germany reports an act of sabotage on its railway infrastructure. Polish presidential aide Bogucki states that Starlink Internet will remain available in Ukraine, refuting earlier statements about a veto. However, Polish authorities (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) are now actively refuting the statement by Bogucki and claiming Starlink will be turned off in Ukraine due to a veto by Nawrocki. A new RF propaganda project, "SVO: Uninvented Stories 2," focuses on drone operators. RF is claiming to push Ukrainian forces out of Kreminni Les, with UAF controlling less than 25% of the area. RF MOD reports 8 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Crimea. RF forces claim strikes on Ukrainian energy and military objects. An RF drone attack was repelled over an industrial zone in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. Aeroflot is adjusting flight schedules due to airport restrictions. Trump has warned Russia of "very serious consequences" if it does not stop the war in Ukraine. UAF Air Force reports 47 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed, out of 59 launched. UAF 47th Mechanized Brigade claims a "fireside show" on RF targets. UAF Air Force reports a group of UAVs in northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast moving towards Zaporizhzhia. RF claims successful engagements by Buk-M2 SAM systems, including against Su-27 and ATACMS. RF states it has been forced into a protracted war. UAF reports RF reconnaissance UAVs near Sumy and in eastern/southwestern Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, warning they could be spotters. UAF Air Force reports high-speed targets to the east of Sumy Oblast. Further UAF drone strikes are reported against railway infrastructure in Krasnogvardiyske, Crimea. RF claims Serebryanskoye forest in LNR is "practically completely cleared" of UAF. RF Foreign Minister Lavrov's letter on Russia's withdrawal from the Council of Europe has been delivered. Allegations of torture of prisoners by five officials in a Kharkiv correctional colony have emerged. RF is conducting a fundraising campaign for the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment. RF claims footage of its special forces hitting UAF positions, equipment, and drones. SBU reports an agent was detained in Kyiv for spying for RF on TCCs and National Guard. UAF National Guard's "Khartiya" brigade is using FPV drones against RF forces attempting to cross the border in Kharkiv Oblast. RF claims Norway Special Operations Forces (SSO) are counteracting Russia in the Black Sea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW OBSERVATIONS (Since Last SITREP):
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
1.4. Relevant Dempster-Shafer Beliefs (Updated)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
Sustain High-Intensity Breakthrough Attempt at Avdiivka with Integrated Air and EW Support Across Other Fronts, including Continued Pressure in Northern/Eastern Sectors and Expanded Air Defense Posture: RF will maintain and intensify the coordinated "fire roller" assault at Avdiivka, committing significant resources (T-90M, concentrated artillery, KABs) to achieve a breakthrough. Concurrently, they will continue probing attacks in Zaporizhzhia (with continued KAB use) and Dnipropetrovsk (potentially expanding efforts to consolidate claimed gains in Voronoye), maintain pressure around Bakhmut with high-quality units (VDV), and conduct limited reconnaissance-in-force in Kherson as newly rotated units integrate. The 'Shipovnik-Aero' EW system will be used to suppress UAF UAV operations on the Southern Front, and RF will continue to utilize tactical aviation for KAB strikes on exposed UAF positions (Northern Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia). Civilian targeting in contested areas (e.g., Kherson, Zaporizhzhia district, Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast communities, 4 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast, Sumy region) will persist. RF FPV drones will continue interdicting UAF movements on key routes, particularly in Kherson, demonstrating increased precision in these strikes, including active attacks on the M-14 Kherson-Mykolaiv highway. Claims of advances in Konstantynivka and Voronoye will be amplified for IO purposes. RF will also likely continue aerial reconnaissance, localized drone activity, and artillery/missile strikes in northern Ukrainian oblasts, such as Sumy, to maintain intelligence on UAF dispositions and pin down UAF forces. RF will also employ Mi-28NM attack helicopters and armed drones for localized offensive operations against UAF infantry and high-value targets in the Sumy direction. RF will maintain and potentially expand internal drone safety zones and airport restrictions in border regions, now extending to deeper RF territory like multiple districts in Lipetsk Oblast (alerts now lifted), Leningrad Oblast (confirmed over 10 UAVs destroyed), Nizhny Novgorod (now lifted), St. Petersburg (restricted operations), Pskov (now lifted), Kazan (now resumed), Volgograd Oblast (with temporary restrictions now lifted), Rostov Oblast (repelled attack), Nizhnekamsk, and Crimea. Expect continued claims and potential limited advances near Staritsa in Kharkiv Oblast to pressure UAF flanks, and further claims of advances in Kupiansk. RF will also continue efforts to degrade UAF ISR and C2, as evidenced by the claimed destruction of a UAF UAV command post in South Donetsk and a UAF mortar position/UAF control point in the Konstantynivka direction. RF UAVs will continue to conduct reconnaissance in northern Donetsk Oblast and Chernihiv Oblasts, and near Sumy and in eastern/southwestern Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. RF will continue to engage and intercept Ukrainian UAVs over RF regions and the Black Sea, as evidenced by the reported 43 and 8 interceptions. TASS reports RF forces are pushing UAF out of Kreminni Les, indicating an intent to gain ground in that sector. WarGonzo reports continuous work by UAV operators of the 5th Army (Vostok Grouping) to destroy enemy manpower on the Vremivka direction. Expect RF to continue combined strikes on Ukrainian energy and military objects. RF will likely continue to target UAF EW systems with FPV drones, and maintain layered air defense with systems like Buk-M2. Expect RF to continue offensive pressure in the Serebryansky forest area. Narodnaya Militsiya DNR's special forces will continue to engage UAF positions, equipment, and drones. New KAB launches in northern Sumy Oblast and eastern Kharkiv Oblast, as well as northern Donetsk Oblast, indicate continued RF tactical aviation capabilities in these regions, which will likely be used to support ongoing or new offensive actions. Kotsnews reports RF forces will continue "dismantling" UAF positions in Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast). Kotsnews reports increased pressure near Siversk, indicating an intent to intensify offensive operations in that area. Colonelcassad's video indicates continued FPV drone strikes against UAF infantry in tactical operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
**Intensified Multi-Domain Information Warfare to Undermine Ukrainian Resolve and Western Support, with Increased Focus on US Political Figures, Diplomatic Divides, Extreme Nationalist Narratives, and Exploitation of International Crises, while managing internal dissent and
We only use optional analytics cookies if you allow them. Necessary cookies stay on for sign-in and site security.
Learn more in our Privacy Policy.
