OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: Russian Federation (RF) forces maintain multi-domain pressure across the front, with continued ground assaults in Kharkiv and Donetsk. RF persists with claims of "liberation" in Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) and elements entering Konstantynivka (DNR). UAF sources continue to contradict RF claims regarding Dnipropetrovsk and maintain defensive posture. Tactical counterattacks in Donetsk, including confirmed recapture of Novomykhailivka and pushing back enemy in Zelenyi Hai, demonstrate UAF's ability to contest ground. RF milbloggers are publishing daily summaries with civilian-focused videos, attempting to normalize the conflict and fundraising for military units. RF is also showcasing heavy demining equipment. UAF deep strikes against RF logistical and energy infrastructure continue. International support for Ukraine remains strong, highlighted by new aid commitments and firm statements on territorial integrity. Recent incidents include widespread power outages in Sumy Oblast due to drone attacks and new reports of ballistic missile threats. Reports indicate RF used 104 Shahed and imitator UAVs overnight, with 76 reportedly downed or suppressed by UAF air defenses. UAF has revealed a new "Long Neptune" missile with a reported range of up to 1000 km. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade reports repelling 35 enemy attacks and inflicting significant losses on the Pokrovsk direction. Sea mines have again been spotted near Odesa's coast.
UPDATES:
RF claims of advances west of Kupiansk and in Udachne. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity.)
MoD Russia claims "Liberating Filiya: artillery support, drone strikes and river crossing" with video of combat in a rural settlement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity of "liberation"). Video from MoD Russia also claims to be "liberating Novogeorgiyevka in Dnepropetrovsk region," providing additional claims for this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity of "liberation").
TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky, advisor to the DPR head, claims that with the "liberation" of Zaporizhzhia, UAF forces in Kamyshevakha are in a "fire bag." (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity).
RF MoD claims "Zaporozhskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) was liberated." (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity.)
RBC-Ukraine reports a street in Pishchane, Sumy Oblast, is "almost completely destroyed" due to an RF attack. Video shows burning building and scattered debris. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
STERNENKO (UAF) posts video of a "Phoenix UAV unit" operation in the Pokrovsk direction, indicating continued UAF drone activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage with RF MoD logo and "Rubikon" emblem, showing destruction of various UAF military targets (trucks, APCs, 'Baba Yaga' drone, comms equipment, strongpoint). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of destruction of UAF equipment, LOW for specific context/timeframe.)
Zelenskyy states Russia is attempting to disrupt winter preparations through energy infrastructure strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian DRG (sabotage and reconnaissance group) activity on a post deep in occupied Kherson region, resulting in two RF servicemen killed (200). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity).
МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video of "caravan of high-tech donkeys at the front on the fourth year of war," indicating logistical improvisation by RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for video, MEDIUM for "high-tech" interpretation, LOW for specific timeframe).
Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk Regional State Administration announces a new MRI scanner in operation, highlighting efforts to improve civilian medical infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Zelenskyy and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre meet in Kyiv, discussing military aid and security cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts about awarding servicemen in the 58th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade for professionalism and courage, indicating morale-boosting activities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
РБК-Україна reports Polish President vetoed bill extending social assistance to Ukrainians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
Colonelcassad posts video of two soldiers in DNR requesting a "large capacity quad bike," indicating specific equipment needs and localized fundraising efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
"Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts photo message with caption: "Україна стала використовувати тактику Першої світової війни для полювання за російськими дронами." This indicates potential adaptation of older air defense tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF IO, MEDIUM for operational veracity.)
Рыбарь posts graphic: "Диаспора подала голос." This suggests RF is trying to frame diaspora communities as supportive or as a target for IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
РБК-Україна posts video of Kellogg speaking about morale and endurance. This reflects UAF focus on national resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Оперативний ЗСУ reports Kellogg's hope for a free and peaceful Ukraine by next Independence Day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Putin informed Pezeshkian (Iran) about US summit results. This indicates continued RF-Iran diplomatic engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS posts video of destruction in Nasser hospital, Gaza, claiming 20 dead. This is an RF IO attempt to divert attention. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація posts on "Step In Export," indicating efforts to maintain economic stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
РБК-Україна posts Kellogg's statement on working hard for security guarantees. This reflects UAF diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Zelenskyy announced contacts with the US regarding a possible meeting with Putin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering criminal influence in Odesa, indicating internal security efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Военкор Котенок claims Poles "snapped at the Ukrainians today," likely referring to the Polish veto, an RF IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Zelenskyy, Syniehubov, KMVA share a video about the battle of good vs. evil, emphasizing the need to stop Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS posts video of Putin meeting Grigorenko, discussing anti-fraud measures and AI. This is domestic news for normalcy/IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
РБК-Україна reports Kellogg discussing a letter from Melania Trump to Putin, regarding children, further engaging in diplomatic discourse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad posts photo on "Russia and Nicaragua," projecting international alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
STERNENKO reminds of ways to donate to "Total Rusoriz" (fundraising for drones), showing continued UAF resource needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Операция Z posts bar chart on Ukrainians losing trust in TCC (mobilization centers). This is RF IO exploiting internal Ukrainian challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts video of alleged fallen soldiers, indicating combat losses, likely RF losses used for UAF counter-IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for video, MEDIUM for attribution of losses).
TASS reports search for swimmer in Turkey. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
ASTRA posts video of Ukrainian MFA condemning Woody Allen's participation in Moscow Film Week, a UAF counter-IO piece against normalization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RF UAV heading to Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New launch of KABs by RF tactical aviation towards Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
TASS posts video of "liberated" Zaporozhskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, showing drone footage with explosions and flags. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity of "liberation").
Alex Parker Returns posts photo of Polish football fans with banner, likely an RF IO attempt to show pro-Russian sentiment or divisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo of Woody Allen in Moscow, criticizing him. This is UAF counter-IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts photo claiming "successfully demobilized" RF personnel, implying heavy losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF counter-IO, MEDIUM for veracity).
Север.Реалии reports on anti-abortion billboards in St. Petersburg. Domestic news, low military relevance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Polish President proposed equating "Bandera ideology" with fascism. This is a significant RF IO piece to amplify divisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports Politconsultant Paul Manafort offered his services to Zaluzhny, who refused. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming Polish President will equate Bandera symbolism with Nazism and cut aid to Ukrainians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, HIGH for factual basis of statements).
Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages on Щурово, claiming an FPV drone strike on BAPON objects at the "Lipa" recreation base. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for strike veracity/target).
Fighterbomber posts video of UMPK strikes on a "concentration area of Banderites, UAV control post, and material storage." (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of strikes). Video from Fighterbomber also shows aerial view of a rural landscape with village and water, and explosions, indicating ongoing military activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) reports a rally in Rome for Ukraine's Independence Day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS posts video of a robot walking a "robodog" in Moscow at a "Moscow-2030" forum. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
ASTRA and TASS report Adam Kadyrov, son of Chechen head, received the "Defender of the Chechen Republic" medal. Alex Parker Returns also comments on this, framing it cynically. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports air threat lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ballistic missile threat from NE lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Новости Москвы posts video about an elderly woman stuck in a bathtub, rescued by firefighters. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
"Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" posts video of Russian/Chechen soldiers in a snowy environment, showing combat preparation, movement, and damaged buildings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO/combat footage).
РБК-Україна reports Lithuanian intelligence assesses 30,000 RF and Belarusian troops will participate in "Zapad-2025" exercises. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Alex Parker Returns posts photo collage "The puzzle came together. This is who jinxed it," as a cynical/sarcastic IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
ASTRA posts videos and photos of destruction in Kushuhum and Malokaterynivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, claiming it is from today's Russian shelling. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues an alert. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Air raid alert lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a ballistic missile threat from the northeast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ballistic missile threat from the south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) announces air raid alarm for Kyiv due to ballistic missile threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
РБК-Україна reports air raid alarm in Kyiv and several oblasts due to ballistic missiles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Сливочный каприз posts photo showing "Konstantinovka - Alexandro-Shultino" as of 24.08.25. This likely refers to positional fighting or RF activity in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports high-speed target in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
STERNENKO warns of ballistic threat, urges shelter, and asks for donations to kill Russians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Sale of "new drop" (merchandise) to fund "total rusoriz." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Оперативний ЗСУ warns of ballistic threat where alarms are declared. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Polish minister reports Poland cannot pay for Starlink for Ukraine due to Nawrocki's veto. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Офіс Генерального прокурора reports illegal use of lands contaminated by Chornobyl accident, suspecting village head, company directors, and land surveyor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Олександр Вілкул (UAF Official) posts photo messages with no captions, likely indicating ongoing, possibly sensitive, activities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo messages, one with caption "Патч «Волчонок 45» — осталось совсем мало" indicating sale of military-themed patches. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Два майора posts video showing soldiers in a fortified position, with text indicating the "Konstantinovka direction" and the "33rd Motor Rifle Berlin Don Cossack Regiment 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division." Audio translates to "Thank you to the commanders of the assault detachment of the 3rd regiment of the brigade with the support of the squad. Together we are strength. The enemy will be broken." (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO, MEDIUM for specific unit and location veracity.) Polish PM Tusk states Poland will not send troops to Ukraine after the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
РБК-Україна reports "🚀ПС: Швидкісна ціль на Сумщині" (Air Force: High-speed target in Sumy Oblast). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Ambassador of USA to NATO states Trump still has many cards for peace in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Два майора reports Polish President Karol Nawrocki vetoed law extending assistance to Ukrainians, citing lack of work requirement for benefits. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
ASTRA posts photo message with caption "☮️ Сбор на зарплаты сотрудникам ASTRA в августе продолжается" (Fundraising for ASTRA employee salaries in August continues). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Colonelcassad posts photo message with caption "Производство серийных самолетов концерном "Антонов" по данным самого концерна "Антонов". В целом, тихое умирание производство даже без СВО." (Production of serial aircraft by Antonov concern according to Antonov concern data. Overall, quiet demise of production even without SMO.). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for objective assessment of Antonov's status.)
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video of a Ukrainian soldier next to a motorcycle, with text requesting a new motorcycle after the previous one was lost to a drone strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Mash на Донбассе reports "Водовод "Северский Донец — Донбасс" в ближайшее время осмотрят эксперты." (Seversky Donets-Donbas water pipeline will be inspected by experts soon). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Рыбарь posts photo message "📝Политическое украинство📝" (Political Ukrainianism), likely an IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Graphic regarding "Kyiv Flamingo" (rockets) identifies potential assembly locations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claim).
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo messages "🪂 Северское направление" showing a tactical map. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for specific operational details).
Операция Z posts video "‼️🇺🇦У «главного антикоррупционера Украины» нашли дом в США за $1 млн" (Ukraine's 'main anti-corruption activist' found to have a $1 million house in the USA), alleging corruption by Vitaliy Shabunin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for veracity). Report from "Voenkory Russkoi Vesny" also claims USA is looking for a replacement for Zelensky. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
STERNENKO reiterates Polish President's veto of aid to Ukrainian refugees due to work requirement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts photo message showing "Воїни-артилеристи 42-ї ОМБр отримали суттєву фінансову підтримку від Валерії Г., яка долучилася до збору на квадроцикли" (Artillerymen of the 42nd Separate Mechanized Brigade received significant financial support from Valeria G., who joined the quad bike fundraiser). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Video of mother of ten children, widow of "special operation" participant, appealing to Putin for help. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF civilian distress, LOW for UAF context).
Два майора states "Коллеги с канала Два майора пишут о инициативе Варшавы сократить поддержку украинцев в стране" (Colleagues from Two Majors channel write about Warsaw's initiative to reduce support for Ukrainians in the country). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Новости Москвы reports "😦 В Питере выпал СНЕГ" (Snow fell in St. Petersburg), with video of a hailstorm. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for weather event, LOW relevance to conflict).
Басурин о главном announces "Новый выпуск авторской программы "Басурин отвечает!"" (New episode of Basurin answers! program). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
ТАСС reports "Поисково-спасательные работы в районе пребывания альпинистки Наговициной завершены..." (Search and rescue operations in the area of mountaineer Nagovitsina completed...). (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Legislation proposed in State Duma to transfer migrant health data to Interior Ministry. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Оперативний ЗСУ posts video "Україна залучає для збиття ворожих БПЛА старенькі літаки Як-52 — WSJ" (Ukraine uses old Yak-52 aircraft to shoot down enemy UAVs - WSJ). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF IO, MEDIUM for operational details).
ТАСС reports "Польша не сможет платить за Starlink для Киева из-за вето Навроцкого на закон..." (Poland cannot pay for Starlink for Kyiv due to Nawrocki's veto of the law...). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, HIGH for factual basis of statements). Zakharova states UAF strikes on "Druzhba" oil pipeline are "banditry" and "terrorism". (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO). "Госключ" (Gosuslugi electronic signature) integrated into Max messenger. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE)
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 and Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report "✅ Відбій повітряної тривоги!" / "📢 Відбій загрози застосування балістичного озброєння." (Air raid alert lifted! / Ballistic missile threat lifted). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Reconstruction of cultural objects in frontline communities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports "🟢 м. Київ - відбій повітряної тривоги!" (Kyiv - air raid alert lifted!). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
ТАСС reports "Следствие ходатайствует об аресте блогера Маркаряна по делу об оскорблении памяти защитников Отечества..." (Investigation requests arrest of blogger Markaryan in case of insulting memory of defenders of the Fatherland...). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF internal security/legal action). Arrest on property of former Deputy Director of FGUP GVSU No.4 of RF MoD Smetanyuk for 143 million rubles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Два майора posts video with a man discussing geopolitical events, portraying Russian actions as justified and critical of Western media. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Два майора further discusses Warsaw's initiative to reduce support for Ukrainians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Kotsnews states "Господство Запада завершается. Конфликт на Украине изменил баланс сил." (Western dominance is ending. The conflict in Ukraine has changed the balance of power). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO). RF forces are encircling Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity)
НгП раZVедка reports "⚠️Прошедшей ночью была проведена успешная операция по ликвидации живой силы противника, были нанесены высокоточные удары по 24 объектам ВСУ, преимущественно ПВД и складам БПЛА." (Last night, a successful operation was carried out to eliminate enemy personnel, high-precision strikes were carried out on 24 AFU targets, mainly temporary deployment points and UAV warehouses). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity).
Старше Эдды reports on a woman deceived by Ukrainian fraudsters carrying a "mined icon" to the FSB building in Crimea, which was обезврежена (defused). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for veracity of "mined icon" plot).
Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) posts photo messages with caption "🗣Протягом минулого тижня ворожих ударів зазнали щонайменше 42 населені пункти Харківської області." (Over the past week, at least 42 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast suffered enemy strikes). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues "☄️ Загроза застосування балістичного озброєння з південного напрямку!" (Threat of ballistic missile use from the southern direction!). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
ТАСС posts photo message "Что известно о генеральном прокуроре РФ Игоре Краснове:" (What is known about RF Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov:). (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad comments on Polish President Nawrocki's veto, framing it as "Краник халявы для "украинских богов" продолжают прикручивать" (The tap of freebies for "Ukrainian gods" continues to be tightened), reinforcing RF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO). Photo of "Труха" and several black/blurry videos with "ТРУХА" watermark, likely IO material. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for actual content).
Операция Z posts video "‼️🇪🇺🇭🇺 Евросоюз переживает упадок и теряет влияние, — Глава МИД Венгрии" (EU is in decline and losing influence, — Hungarian Foreign Minister), amplifying anti-EU narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Воин DV posts video "💥🦇Продолжение (первая часть здесь) работы 30 роты спецназа 36 армии группировки войско "Восток" по уничтожению живой силы противника в районе Новосёловки." (Continuation of the work of the 30th special forces company of the 36th army of the "Vostok" group to destroy enemy personnel in the Novosiolovka area). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claims).
AV БогомаZ posts several empty photo messages and a statement that it "cannot provide a military intelligence analysis of this image" due to it depicting an exhibition/educational display and not military operations. This indicates a potential attempt to introduce non-military content or to obfuscate. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for content of message, LOW relevance).
✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports "Black Swan" assault battalion (225th Separate Assault Regiment) destroyed a building in Oleksiyivka where enemy personnel were concentrated, with thermal drone footage showing explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Север.Реалии reports a PE teacher from Izhevsk was sentenced to 18 years for treason and preparing sabotage for the "Freedom of Russia" legion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
RBC-Ukraine reports that tomorrow (26 AUG 25) will be the coldest day in Kyiv in a long time. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Новости Москвы reports a severe hailstorm in St. Petersburg, Russia. While not directly affecting the Ukrainian front, it indicates unusual weather patterns in the region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
No other new weather or environmental updates specifically affecting the immediate operational picture beyond previous reports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
RF:
Offensive Pressure (Kharkiv & Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia): Continued multi-axis ground pressure in Kharkiv (Vovchansk, Lyptsi) and Donetsk (Chasiv Yar, Konstantynivka) with significant air support (glide bombs) and EW capabilities (Shipovnik-Aero). Massed drone attacks (Sumy), and widespread air threats (Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk) indicate continued efforts to degrade UAF defenses and infrastructure. Renewed UAV/artillery attacks on Sumy city, leading to power outages, and RF claims of targeting UAF artillery/transport in Sumy area. Claims of first FPV drone in Zaporizhzhia. Fire control claimed over Karantynnyi Island, Kherson. New claim of active advance in Philiia, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, now with MoD Russia video. RF also conducted 500 strikes on 13 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including KAB strikes on Kushuhumska Hromada. Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk was attacked by FPV drones and artillery. ISW maps confirm RF offensive across the entire front. UAF General Staff indicates "enemy did not conduct offensive actions" in the Dnipro direction, contradicting RF claims for Philiia. WarGonzo reports on the Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv fronts. TASS reports Pushilin claims RF groups are entering the outskirts of Konstantynivka in DNR and control the situation near Dobropillya. Воин DV claims "liberation" of Zaporizhzhia (Dnepropetrovsk Oblast) with video of thermal drone strike, and "Сливочный каприз" posts photos and video suggesting control in Великая Новосёлка - Запорожское. Colonelcassad and "Два майора" post photo and video claiming control over Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims an RF strike on the HQ of the 42nd Brigade in Preobrazhenka on the Dnipropetrovsk direction. TASS claims Southern Grouping of Forces destroyed a UAF ammunition depot in the Konstantynivka direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports RF forces struck gas infrastructure in Ukraine, near Dikanka (Poltava Oblast). Kotsnews posts a video with soldiers discussing fighting on the Dnipropetrovsk front, claiming difficulties in clearing areas and use of drones/artillery, with footage of explosions and a Russian flag on a damaged structure. Народная милиция ДНР posts drone footage claiming the destruction of a UAF pickup truck near Novy Ekonomycheskoye. Два майора posts a video claiming the destruction of a building with UAF personnel in Burgunka, Kherson Oblast, using FABs. Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны also claim "liberation" of Zaporizhzhia (Dnepropetrovsk Oblast).
UPDATES:
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports "Russian army advanced to the west of Kupyansk and in Udachne." (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity.)
Басурин о главном claims a "Geran-2 pinpoint strike on hidden infrastructure" in Sloviansk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, MEDIUM for capability, LOW for immediate veracity).
MoD Russia claims "Liberating Filiya: artillery support, drone strikes and river crossing" with video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity of "liberation"). Video from MoD Russia also claims to be "liberating Novogeorgiyevka in Dnepropetrovsk region." (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity of "liberation").
TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky claims that with the "liberation" of Zaporizhzhia, UAF forces in Kamyshevakha are in a "fire bag." (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity).
"Два майора" posts video from "Zaporizhzhia Front" showing a homemade drone with explosives, indicating continued use of improvised methods. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for use of such drones, MEDIUM for the depicted combat scenario as recent).
RF MoD claims "Zaporozhskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) was liberated." (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity.)
WarGonzo posts a video captioned "Xoxol, you yourself see what is happening at the front...", showing a drone launching an explosive payload. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO, MEDIUM for drone capabilities shown).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage with RF MoD logo and "Rubikon" emblem, showing destruction of various UAF military targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO, MEDIUM for depicted destruction of UAF equipment).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RF UAV heading to Sumy. This indicates continued air threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Sumy, confirming active RF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages on Щурово, claiming an FPV drone strike on BAPON objects at the "Lipa" recreation base, indicating continued FPV drone use. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for strike veracity/target).
Fighterbomber posts video of UMPK strikes on a "concentration area of Banderites, UAV control post, and material storage." (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of strikes). Additional Fighterbomber video shows general explosions in a rural area, indicating ongoing military activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
ASTRA posts videos and photos of destruction in Kushuhum and Malokaterynivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, claiming it is from today's Russian shelling. This confirms RF strikes on civilian areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a ballistic missile threat from the northeast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ballistic missile threat from the south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) announces air raid alarm for Kyiv due to ballistic missile threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
РБК-Україна reports air raid alarm in Kyiv and several oblasts due to ballistic missiles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Сливочный каприз posts photo showing "Konstantinovka - Alexandro-Shultino" as of 24.08.25, indicating continued positional fighting in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports high-speed target in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Два майора posts video showing soldiers in a fortified position, identified with the 33rd Motor Rifle Berlin Don Cossack Regiment 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division in the Konstantinovka direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO, MEDIUM for specific unit and location veracity.)
НгП раZVедка reports successful operation overnight against 24 AFU targets (PVD and UAV warehouses), claiming elimination of enemy personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity).
Воин DV posts video from the 30th special forces company of the 36th army of the "Vostok" group, claiming destruction of enemy personnel in the Novosiolovka area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claims).
Kotsnews claims RF forces are encircling Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity)
✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports "Black Swan" assault battalion (225th Separate Assault Regiment) destroyed a building in Oleksiyivka where enemy personnel were concentrated, with thermal drone footage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Logistical Support: Colonelcassad posts a video depicting the delivery of "humanitarian aid" (camouflage nets and other supplies) to "stormtroopers of the Sever brigade" via a public organization. TASS reports on a critical humanitarian and logistical situation near Kakhovka. Saldo discussing plans to restore water supply to Kherson by November. Colonelcassad also showcases a heavy demining vehicle, the MT-10 "Stalker." Colonelcassad posts a video fundraising for the "Summer Campaign 2025". Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo claiming that after attacks on the "Druzhba" oil pipeline, Ukraine may lose Slovak diesel. Басурин о главном posts a video showing military personnel inside what appears to be an armored vehicle marked with both Russian and American flags, discussing vehicle operations, possibly as a propaganda or psychological operation.
UPDATES:
Alex Parker Returns posts video of "Novoshakhtinsky Oil Refinery continuing to burn for the fifth consecutive day," indicating sustained damage to RF logistical infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for fire and duration, MEDIUM for precise location).
Народная милиция ДНР posts video showing delivery of medical equipment to a medical facility (ИНВХ им. В. Гусака), framed as humanitarian aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for actual delivery of aid).
МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video of "caravan of high-tech donkeys at the front on the fourth year of war," demonstrating logistical improvisation (use of pack animals). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for video, MEDIUM for "high-tech" interpretation, LOW for specific timeframe).
Colonelcassad posts video of two soldiers from DNR's "third combined army" requesting a "large capacity quad bike" for logistics, indicating specific equipment needs and reliance on public support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video of a Ukrainian soldier appealing for a new motorcycle after the previous one was lost, highlighting logistical challenges and the need for new equipment for frontline transport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Mash на Донбассе reports on inspection of the "Seversky Donets-Donbas" water pipeline, indicating concerns about critical infrastructure in occupied/contested areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Information Operations: RF milbloggers continue to publish propaganda, including claims of UAF strikes on Belgorod with civilian casualties, footage of alleged UAF equipment destruction, cynical posts about Ukrainian Independence Day, and exploiting diplomatic tensions. TASS highlights an RF MoD narrative of a junior sergeant evacuating wounded and claims of increased UAF strikes on RF territory. Colonelcassad's post about Ukraine's Independence Day in Zaporizhzhia and Alex Parker Returns' claim of a first FPV drone in Zaporizhzhia are attempts to diminish Ukrainian sovereignty. Colonelcassad's latest video showcasing "humanitarian aid" aims to boost morale. TASS also reports RF fire control over Karantynnyi Island (Kherson). New reports from Операция Z/Военкоры Русской Весны highlight alleged Israeli airstrikes in Yemen and now show a video of Kazakh children and Indians singing a Russian hit. TASS also reports on government plans to allow voluntary restriction of access to "dangerous content" for Russians. TASS reports Saldo claims UAF is burning forests in Kherson Oblast to intimidate civilians. TASS also reports pro-Russian underground sources claim residents evacuating Kyiv-controlled Kherson face corruption and bureaucracy. The TASS video features a man discussing agricultural activities, referring to prevention of fires as a "terrorist act." Saldo claims UAF destroyed half of all ambulances in frontline Kherson Oblast. Colonelcassad's photo message "Внимание, жители Украины!" indicates a continuation of psychological operations. The TASS video showing destruction and activity in Philiia, Dnipropetrovsk, is an attempt to support the new advance claim. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны are also expanding their reach with a new channel on the MAX messenger. TASS reports China Daily opinion on Zelenskyy needing to reach consensus for productive talks with Putin. TASS video of joint RF-PLA naval patrol serves to project military cooperation and strength. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RF Human Rights Commissioner Moskalova claims negotiations with Ukraine occurred in Belarus. TASS reports pro-Russian underground sources claim residents of Kyiv-controlled Zaporizhzhia Oblast are refusing evacuation efforts by Ukrainian authorities. TASS reports Andrei Marochko claims UAF losses, including foreign mercenaries, for the week in battles near Luhansk Oblast are almost 4.4 thousand killed and wounded. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" with photos and captions about "Airborne brotherhood, family" are recruitment/morale boosting. Colonelcassad's new photo messages, captioned "Moments of the SMO. Frontline weekdays.", showing a domestic cat on wooden crates, are attempts to normalize the conflict and humanize RF forces. TASS reports an executive proceeding against singer Zemfira* was closed after debts were paid, and Trump stated he would support annulling licenses of ABC and NBC for criticizing him. "Два майора" is publishing daily summaries with civilian-focused videos. RF is also showcasing heavy demining equipment. TASS reports that Southern Group of Forces' UAV and artillery crews destroyed a UAF UAV control post and radio equipment in DNR. TASS also reports Iran's Ambassador to RF states Israel's planned operation in Gaza will be a big crime. RBC-Ukraine reports on which European countries could see anti-Ukrainian forces win. Басурин о главном posts #ДЕНЬвИСТОРИИ. ТАСС also posts about South Korea-Trump meeting and Medvedev's tennis loss. Colonelcassad posts about channel information. Архангел Спецназа posts general good morning messages. ASTRA reports one person died and nine were injured in Sumy Oblast. ASTRA and TASS report the Prosecutor General's Office recognized the Swiss NGO "International Baccalaureate" as "undesirable." "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a photo message claiming the US Vice President stated Trump needs 6 more months to convince Putin to stop the war. RF milbloggers "Сливочный каприз" and Воин DV post videos/photos claiming territorial gains in Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk. Военкор Котенок hopes for a "good rocket" to hit Zelenskyy. TASS claims a peaceful resident was wounded in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. "Операция Z" posts a photo of a Ukrainian volunteer threatening Zelenskyy. TASS reports the FSB detained a woman in Crimea. STERNENKO reports RF is indoctrinating children in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a political cartoon captioning internal healthcare issues. ARKHANGEL SPETSNZAZA posts "Ukraine is strengthening". TASS reports suppression of a large online resource for illegal personal data distribution. WarGonzo reports "Europeans do not want to die for Ukraine." Sever.Realii posts a statement from State Duma deputy Butskaya that "Russians are not genetically wired for bananas or mangoes." TASS reports Russia-Europe relations will not be the same. Старше Эдды posts a meme discussing arresting a Stalin fan. TASS reports a former Ukrainian special service officer claims Kuznetsov, suspect in Nord Stream bombing, continued working for SBU on sabotage outside Ukraine. Colonelcassad reports Lieutenant Gomenko Igor, a police officer actively mobilizing residents in Odesa, was killed. TASS reports a "neo-Nazi" from The Times is threatening Zelenskyy with murder for "leaving" Donbas. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a photo message of a mother who died on her son's grave in Zabaykalye. Рыбарь posts a graphic with text "Призыв возвращается" (Conscription Returns). Басурин о главном posts a video showing an APC with Russian and American flags, explicitly as a message to "foreign media," confirming its IO purpose. Старше Эдды advocates for amending the criminal code to judge individuals based on political beliefs as an aggravating circumstance. РБК-Україна posts a video titled "No gasoline and there won't be: on Ukraine's Independence Day, Russian TV viewers were shown the truth about the war," which is a Ukrainian counter-IO piece highlighting Russian losses and resource issues. Kotsnews posts text stating "Hungary was slapped on the cheeks again. My note for the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine," indicating continued diplomatic tensions with Hungary.
UPDATES:
TASS reports Polish President Karol Nawrocki vetoed a bill extending special status and benefits for Ukrainians who arrived after February 2022. This will be amplified by RF as a sign of eroding European support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports the Investigative Committee opened a case against a Ukrainian militant who participated in blocking the Olesnya farmstead in Kursk Oblast. This is a clear RF IO attempt to criminalize Ukrainian defenders and justify actions in Kursk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Alex Parker Returns amplifies the TASS narrative on "biological drones" in the Crocus City Hall attack, linking it to religion and nationality to sow discord and justify xenophobia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
STERNENKO (UAF) reports on a Russian official from the "temporarily occupied territory of Japan, the Kuril Islands," announcing a halt to the sale of 92-octane gasoline. This is likely UAF counter-IO aimed at highlighting RF internal issues and questionable territorial claims. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF IO).
Басурин о главном claims a "Geran-2 pinpoint strike on hidden infrastructure" in Sloviansk. This is an IO piece to demonstrate RF precision strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports on Mikhail Degtyarev heading the TASS "For Loyalty" award jury. This is domestic news that serves to normalize the situation and divert attention. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports the need to toughen punishment for disseminating Russians' personal data. This indicates continued internal information control efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video featuring a man recounting alleged mistreatment, beatings, and eventual execution by "Dudka" and "Batrak" after being captured in Ukraine, followed by claims of his own mistreatment by Ukrainian authorities for PTSD. This is likely an RF IO piece aiming to demoralize UAF and portray internal brutality. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for veracity). Video of mother of ten children, widow of "special operation" participant, appealing to Putin for help, used to humanize the cost of war for RF and garner sympathy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF civilian distress, LOW for UAF context).
Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video of a captured RF soldier (Vladislav Shildyaev) from the 60th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade, stating he signed a contract so his father wouldn't be conscripted. This is UAF counter-IO aimed at showing low RF morale and forced mobilization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF IO). Polish minister reports Poland cannot pay for Starlink for Ukraine due to Nawrocki's veto. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of "a local drunkard neutralizing a Russian fiber-optic FPV with his bare hands" near Pokrovsk. This is UAF counter-IO to show local resistance and ingenuity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF IO). Kit Kellogg makes statement about Russian casualties exceeding US WWII losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
TASS posts a video on four journalists killed in Israeli strikes on Nasser Hospital in Gaza, an RF IO attempt to divert attention and align with anti-Western narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Legislation proposed in State Duma to transfer migrant health data to Interior Ministry. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) "Госключ" integrated into Max messenger. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE)
STERNENKO reports "90 MILLION OUT OF 100!" referring to a fundraising campaign, indicating ongoing UAF fundraising and resource needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Sale of "new drop" (merchandise) to fund "total rusoriz." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports the detention of Vladimir Bazarov (acting deputy governor of Kursk Oblast) for embezzling 1 billion rubles meant for defensive fortifications in Belgorod Oblast. This is a significant internal corruption report that RF will likely try to frame as successful anti-corruption efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
MoD Russia claims "Liberating Filiya: artillery support, drone strikes and river crossing" with video. This is a significant IO push to claim territorial gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Claims "liberating Novogeorgiyevka in Dnepropetrovsk region," another IO push. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO)
Рыбарь posts a video "Bomb in an Icon" featuring the FSB detaining a woman in Crimea for an alleged icon bomb plot, amplifying the narrative of Ukrainian sabotage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO). Graphic regarding "Kyiv Flamingo" (rockets) identifies potential assembly locations, likely an IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claim).
Colonelcassad posts a graphic on "Growth of Ukraine's public debt by 2025," an RF IO attempt to highlight Ukraine's financial vulnerability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Photo of "Труха" and several black/blurry videos with "ТРУХА" watermark, likely IO material. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for actual content).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Russia returned children to the Motherland through the mediation of Qatar." This is an RF IO piece aiming to portray Russia as a humanitarian actor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Report from "Voenkory Russkoi Vesny" also claims USA is looking for a replacement for Zelensky. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
TASS reports Poland's President proposed stricter conditions for obtaining Polish citizenship, including denying it to those sympathizing with "Bandera ideology." This is a significant RF IO piece to amplify divisions between Poland and Ukraine and appeal to anti-Ukrainian sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Arrest on property of former Deputy Director of FGUP GVSU No.4 of RF MoD Smetanyuk for 143 million rubles, indicating a focus on internal corruption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Новости Москвы reports on "welders leading the rating of highest-paid professions in Russia," a domestic news item that supports the narrative of internal economic strength and normalcy. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Народная милиция ДНР posts video showing delivery of medical equipment to a medical facility (ИНВХ им. В. Гусака), framed as humanitarian aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for actual delivery of aid).
TASS reports on new regulations for salaries and working conditions in Russia starting Sept 1st. Domestic news to show government functionality. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Vladikavkaz airport. Domestic news related to air travel, likely a weather-related or operational issue. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Russian tourists stranded in Sanya, China due to typhoon. Domestic news focusing on citizen welfare. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kadyrov_95 posts a video on a tactical shooting championship, featuring participants from Russia and "friendly countries" (Kuwait, Bahrain, Chechnya). This is an RF IO piece to project military prowess and international alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Janus Putkonen (Finnish pro-RF source) posts about Finnish President Stubb's statements "not spreading well." This is a pro-RF IO piece aiming to highlight perceived Western disunity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
"Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" posts a rhetorical question "What else can the military do besides kill?", possibly to provoke discussion or portray a more complex image of military personnel. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE for IO, could be interpreted in various ways).
Басурин о главном posts the same "Bomb in an Icon" video as Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны, reinforcing the narrative of Ukrainian sabotage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Олександр Вілкул (Ukrainian official) posts photos about reconstruction efforts in Kryvyi Rih, including 30,000 windows and a high-speed tram station. This is UAF counter-IO demonstrating resilience and commitment to civilian welfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF IO).
Alex Parker Returns posts an image claiming a Russian student was fined for a meme with a swastika, likely an RF IO attempt to portray internal anti-extremism efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Север.Реалии reports on Russian bookstores being warned about restrictions on "foreign agent" books, indicating continued internal information control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). PE teacher from Izhevsk sentenced for treason and sabotage, indicating RF internal security efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Старше Эдды references a discussion with Andrey Medvedev, indicating continued milblogger engagement on internal discourse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports court proceedings on Igor Talkov murder case delayed, a domestic news item. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS posts video of Putin meeting Grigorenko, discussing combating fraud, showing government functionality. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports 15 million Russians used "Gosuslugi" for self-restriction on loans, indicating internal control over financial activities. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts that "Western dominance is ending. Конфликт на Украине изменил баланс сил." (Western dominance is ending. The conflict in Ukraine has changed the balance of power). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Басурин о главном posts a video "Dark shadow over 'Druzhba': Hungary in a trap of political blackmail," an RF IO piece attempting to sow discord between Ukraine and Hungary and exploit energy security concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Воин DV states "Canada is seriously getting involved for Ukraine," likely an RF IO piece to portray Western overreach. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
ASTRA reports on journalists killed in Israeli airstrike in Gaza, an RF IO attempt to divert attention. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video with Zelenskyy discussing "Druzhba" pipeline strikes, an RF IO attempt to portray Zelenskyy's reaction negatively. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO framing, MEDIUM for actual content).
ASTRA posts VPN advertisement, showing a demand for bypassing internet restrictions in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for advertisement, MEDIUM for implied demand).
TASS reports Putin informed Pezeshkian (Iran) about US summit results. This is RF IO projecting diplomatic engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Рыбарь posts graphic "Диаспора подала голос," clearly IO attempting to highlight/frame diaspora communities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Военкор Котенок claims Poles "snapped at the Ukrainians today," likely referring to the Polish veto, an RF IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
ASTRA posts video of Ukrainian MFA condemning Woody Allen's participation in Moscow Film Week, a UAF counter-IO piece against normalization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo of Woody Allen in Moscow, criticizing him. This is UAF counter-IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Polish President proposed equating "Bandera ideology" with fascism. This is a significant RF IO piece to amplify divisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports Politconsultant Paul Manafort offered his services to Zaluzhny, who refused. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming Polish President will equate Bandera symbolism with Nazism and cut aid to Ukrainians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, HIGH for factual basis of statements).
Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages on Щурово, claiming an FPV drone strike on BAPON objects at the "Lipa" recreation base. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for strike veracity/target).
Fighterbomber posts video of UMPK strikes on a "concentration area of Banderites, UAV control post, and material storage." (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of strikes). Additional Fighterbomber video shows general explosions in a rural area, indicating ongoing military activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) reports a rally in Rome for Ukraine's Independence Day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS posts video of a robot walking a "robodog" in Moscow at a "Moscow-2030" forum. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
ASTRA and TASS report Adam Kadyrov, son of Chechen head, received the "Defender of the Chechen Republic" medal. Alex Parker Returns also comments on this, framing it cynically. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports air threat lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ballistic missile threat from NE lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Новости Москвы posts video about an elderly woman stuck in a bathtub, rescued by firefighters. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
"Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" posts video of Russian/Chechen soldiers in a snowy environment, showing combat preparation, movement, and damaged buildings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO/combat footage).
РБК-Україна reports Lithuanian intelligence assesses 30,000 RF and Belarusian troops will participate in "Zapad-2025" exercises. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Alex Parker Returns posts photo collage "The puzzle came together. This is who jinxed it," as a cynical/sarcastic IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
ASTRA posts videos and photos of destruction in Kushuhum and Malokaterynivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, claiming it is from today's Russian shelling. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues an alert. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Air raid alert lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Reconstruction of cultural objects in frontline communities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a ballistic missile threat from the northeast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ballistic missile threat from the south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) announces air raid alarm for Kyiv due to ballistic missile threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
РБК-Україна reports air raid alarm in Kyiv and several oblasts due to ballistic missiles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Сливочный каприз posts photo showing "Konstantinovka - Alexandro-Shultino" as of 24.08.25. This likely refers to positional fighting or RF activity in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports high-speed target in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
STERNENKO warns of ballistic threat, urges shelter, and asks for donations to kill Russians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Sale of "new drop" (merchandise) to fund "total rusoriz." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Оперативний ЗСУ warns of ballistic threat where alarms are declared. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Polish minister reports Poland cannot pay for Starlink for Ukraine due to Nawrocki's veto. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Офіс Генерального прокурора reports illegal use of lands contaminated by Chornobyl accident, suspecting village head, company directors, and land surveyor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo messages, one specifically mentioning "Патч «Волчонок 45»" (Wolf Cub 45 patch), likely a morale-boosting or fundraising item within the special forces community. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Рыбарь posts a photo message titled "📝Политическое украинство📝" (Political Ukrainianism), which is an RF IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO)
Операция Z posts video alleging that Ukraine's "main anti-corruption activist" Vitaliy Shabunin has a $1 million house in the USA, an RF IO piece to highlight corruption in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for veracity). Report from "Voenkory Russkoi Vesny" also claims USA is looking for a replacement for Zelensky. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
STERNENKO reiterates Polish President's veto of aid to Ukrainian refugees, serving as factual reporting that RF will exploit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts photo message showing financial support for artillerymen of the 42nd Separate Mechanized Brigade for quad bike fundraising, indicating UAF resource needs and public support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Video of mother of ten children, widow of "special operation" participant, appealing to Putin for help, used to humanize the cost of war for RF and garner sympathy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF civilian distress, LOW for UAF context).
Два майора states "Коллеги с канала Два майора пишут о инициативе Варшавы сократить поддержку украинцев в стране" (Colleagues from Two Majors channel write about Warsaw's initiative to reduce support for Ukrainians in the country). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Polish PM Tusk states Poland will not send troops to Ukraine after the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Новости Москвы reports "😦 В Питере выпал СНЕГ" (Snow fell in St. Petersburg), with video of a hailstorm. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for weather event, LOW relevance to conflict).
Басурин о главном announces "Новый выпуск авторской программы "Басурин отвечает!"" (New episode of Basurin answers! program). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
ТАСС reports "Поисково-спасательные работы в районе пребывания альпинистки Наговициной завершены..." (Search and rescue operations in the area of mountaineer Nagovitsina completed...). (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Legislation proposed in State Duma to transfer migrant health data to Interior Ministry. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Arrest on property of former Deputy Director of FGUP GVSU No.4 of RF MoD Smetanyuk for 143 million rubles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Оперативний ЗСУ posts video "Україна залучає для збиття ворожих БПЛА старенькі літаки Як-52 — WSJ" (Ukraine uses old Yak-52 aircraft to shoot down enemy UAVs - WSJ). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF IO, MEDIUM for operational details).
ТАСС reports "Польша не сможет платить за Starlink для Киева из-за вето Навроцкого на закон..." (Poland cannot pay for Starlink for Kyiv due to Nawrocki's veto of the law...). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, HIGH for factual basis of statement). Zakharova states UAF strikes on "Druzhba" oil pipeline are "banditry" and "terrorism". (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO). "Госключ" integrated into Max messenger. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE)
ТАСС reports "Следствие ходатайствует об аресте блогера Маркаряна по делу об оскорблении памяти защитников Отечества..." (Investigation requests arrest of blogger Markaryan in case of insulting memory of defenders of the Fatherland...). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF internal security/legal action).
Два майора posts video with a man discussing geopolitical events, portraying Russian actions as justified and critical of Western media. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Kotsnews states "Господство Запада завершается. Конфликт на Украине изменил баланс сил." (Western dominance is ending. The conflict in Ukraine has changed the balance of power). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO). Claims RF forces are encircling Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity)
НгП раZVедка reports "⚠️Прошедшей ночью была проведена успешная операция по ликвидации живой силы противника, были нанесены высокоточные удары по 24 объектам ВСУ, преимущественно ПВД и складам БПЛА." (Last night, a successful operation was carried out to eliminate enemy personnel, high-precision strikes were carried out on 24 AFU targets, mainly temporary deployment points and UAV warehouses). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity).
Старше Эдды reports on a woman deceived by Ukrainian fraudsters carrying a "mined icon" to the FSB building in Crimea, which was обезврежена (defused). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for veracity of "mined icon" plot).
Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) posts photo messages with caption "🗣Протягом минулого тижня ворожих ударів зазнали щонайменше 42 населені пункти Харківської області." (Over the past week, at least 42 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast suffered enemy strikes). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
ТАСС posts photo message "Что известно о генеральном прокуроре РФ Игоре Краснове:" (What is known about RF Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov:). (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad comments on Polish President Nawrocki's veto, framing it as "Краник халявы для "украинских богов" продолжают прикручивать" (The tap of freebies for "Ukrainian gods" continues to be tightened), reinforcing RF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO). Photo of "Труха" and several black/blurry videos with "ТРУХА" watermark, likely IO material. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for actual content).
Операция Z posts video "‼️🇪🇺🇭🇺 Евросоюз переживает упадок и теряет влияние, — Глава МИД Венгрии" (EU is in decline and losing influence, — Hungarian Foreign Minister), amplifying anti-EU narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Воин DV posts video "💥🦇Продолжение (первая часть здесь) работы 30 роты спецназа 36 армии группировки войско "Восток" по уничтожению живой силы противника в районе Новосёловки." (Continuation of the work of the 30th special forces company of the 36th army of the "Vostok" group to destroy enemy personnel in the Novosiolovka area). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claims).
AV БогомаZ posts empty photo messages and text stating it cannot analyze images depicting historical exhibitions. This is potentially an attempt to introduce non-military content or obfuscate. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for content of message, LOW relevance).
Север.Реалии reports a PE teacher from Izhevsk was sentenced to 18 years for treason and preparing sabotage for the "Freedom of Russia" legion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UAF:
Counteroffensive Actions: Continued successful localized counterattacks in Donetsk (Novomykhailivka, Mykhailivka, Zelenyi Hai, Volodymyrivka) demonstrate offensive capabilities. ISW maps confirm UAF successes near Pokrovsk. Оперативний ЗСУ shares drone footage from the 67th Mechanized Brigade showing attacks on enemy positions. STERNENKO reports the 3rd SSO Regiment destroyed a Russian truck with ammunition and a cannon in the Pokrovsk direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video in their "Putin's Last Kiss" segment, which typically shows Russian combat losses. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade reports repelling 35 enemy attacks, inflicting 104 personnel losses, 233 "Orlan-10" drones, 8 FPV drones, 2 artillery systems, 5 vehicles, and 2 motorcycles on the Pokrovsk direction. STERNENKO posts a video claiming the 3rd SSO Regiment destroyed an enemy motorcyclist in the Pokrovsk direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that UAF liberated Novomykhailivka and pushed back the enemy in Zelenyi Hai, Donetsk Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a photo claiming "FOUR TOOK 15 PRISONERS: FEAT OF 'ARTIST' GROUP, 78TH AIR ASSAULT BRIGADE," indicating a successful UAF small unit action. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video on the Lyman area, stating the situation has complicated, accompanied by drone footage showing explosions and troop movements.
UPDATES:
Colonelcassad posts video titled "The finale of the 'blitzkrieg': UAF buried their myths near Novomykhailivka," which, despite the RF IO title, appears to show UAF forces in combat with Ukrainian flags. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO framing, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for the accuracy of RF narrative).
"Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a video claiming UAF DRG (sabotage and reconnaissance group) entered Russian rear in Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, killing two "hired workers." (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF IO, LOW for immediate verification of details).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts video of Ukrainian DRG activity on a post deep in occupied Kherson region, claiming two RF servicemen killed (200). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. This RF IO indicates continued combat engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
"Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a photo message on Ukrainian tactics using Yak-52 trainers for drone hunting. This is UAF IO about adaptive air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF IO, MEDIUM for operational veracity).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts video of alleged fallen soldiers ("пацаны наши лежат"). While framed as RF losses, it is UAF counter-IO highlighting casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF counter-IO, MEDIUM for attribution).
Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts photo claiming "successfully demobilized" RF personnel, implying heavy losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF counter-IO, MEDIUM for veracity).
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video of a Ukrainian soldier appealing for a new motorcycle after the previous one was lost, highlighting UAF logistical challenges and need for equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Оперативний ЗСУ posts video showing a Ukrainian pilot describing the use of old Yak-52 aircraft to shoot down enemy UAVs, demonstrating adaptive air defense tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF IO, MEDIUM for operational details).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts photo message detailing financial support for artillerymen of the 42nd Separate Mechanized Brigade for quad bike fundraising, indicating UAF resource needs and public support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports "Black Swan" assault battalion (225th Separate Assault Regiment) destroyed a building in Oleksiyivka where enemy personnel were concentrated, with thermal drone footage showing explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
High Morale: Ukraine's success in rhythmic gymnastics. HUR soldiers reciting a patriotic poem and the Eiffel Tower illumination in Ukraine's colors. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights' post on Kherson Mayor Mykolayenko's capture. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" contains a video of a Ukrainian soldier recounting a successful defensive action. Oleksandr Vilkul's report on Kryvyi Rih being controlled. STERNENKO reports starting the morning by "helping the army." Сили оборони Півдня України posts operational info with a photo of a tribute to fallen soldiers. Kyiv City Military Administration and Zaporizhzhia OVA also post minute of silence for fallen defenders. Оперативний ЗСУ's 67th Mechanized Brigade video. The "Rubizh" National Guard Brigade is collecting funds for equipment restoration. STERNENKO reports RF is indoctrinating children in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Олег Синєгубов, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, posts photos of transferring evacuation drones to 10 combat units on the Kharkiv direction.
UPDATES:
Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts video titled "Unbreakable paratroopers met Independence Day on their native land," showing soldiers with Ukrainian flags and chanting, a strong morale boost. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Zelenskiy / Official and Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація posts video of President Zelenskyy meeting with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, signifying continued international support and a morale boost. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts about awarding servicemen in the 58th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade for professionalism and courage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Photo of a soldier with a Ukrainian flag, captioned "Eastern direction." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
РБК-Україна posts Kellogg's speech on morale and endurance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ambassador of USA to NATO states Trump still has many cards for peace in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Оперативний ЗСУ reports Kellogg's hope for a free and peaceful Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Zelenskyy, Syniehubov, KMVA share a video about the battle of good vs. evil, emphasizing the need to stop Russia, a strong morale boost. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
РБК-Україна posts Kellogg's statement on working hard for security guarantees. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
РБК-Україна reports Kellogg discussing a letter from Melania Trump to Putin, regarding children, emphasizing the human dimension of the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) reports a rally in Rome for Ukraine's Independence Day, indicating continued international civilian support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Олександр Вілкул (UAF Official) posts photo messages, which, despite lacking captions, likely serve as morale-boosting imagery from a known Ukrainian official. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Information Environment: UAF channels are actively reporting on enemy air threats, highlighting UAF successes, and promoting national unity. UAF Foreign Minister reacts sharply to Hungarian FM statements. Sybiha's direct and strong response to Hungary. РБК-Україна reports that Merz is outlining security guarantees for Ukraine. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports on Moskalova's claim of negotiations in Belarus. RBC-Ukraine published ISW maps. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that German FM states Ukraine should receive security guarantees close to NATO. General Staff of UAF and OTU "Kharkiv" provide estimated RF combat losses. RBC-Ukraine reports on which European countries could see anti-Ukrainian forces win. ASTRA reports Ukrainian FM statement responding to Hungary. UAF General Staff provides a tactical analysis image of the Kup'yansk direction and indicates "enemy did not conduct offensive actions" in the Dnipro direction. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" post on Trump/Putin. РБК-Україна reports Prime Minister of Norway Jonas Gahr Støre has arrived in Kyiv. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine and Lithuania will jointly produce defense products. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine has for the first time shown a new "Long Neptune" missile. Оперативний ЗСУ reports up to 6 hits on the Tatarstan logistical complex. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports sea mines have again been spotted near the coast of Odesa. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports life imprisonment for a Kharkiv traitor. Tsaplienko reports China is not sending peacekeepers. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that UAF liberated Novomykhailivka and pushed back the enemy in Zelenyi Hai, Donetsk Oblast. РБК-Україна posts a video (mentioned above) highlighting Russian losses and resource issues, serving as a Ukrainian counter-IO piece. Kotsnews posts text indicating continued diplomatic tensions with Hungary (mentioned above).
UPDATES:
РБК-Україна reports on upcoming cold weather in Kyiv tomorrow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 confirms Ukraine has publicly demonstrated a long-range modification of the Neptune cruise missile. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video (described under RF IO above) which, while likely RF IO, details mistreatment within the RF military and captures some elements of combat, which UAF IO can reframe. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Video of mother of ten children appealing to Putin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF civilian distress, LOW for UAF context).
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of "a local drunkard neutralizing a Russian fiber-optic FPV," a piece of UAF counter-IO highlighting resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kit Kellogg makes statement about Russian casualties exceeding US WWII losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video of a captured RF soldier (Vladislav Shildyaev), serving as UAF counter-IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Polish minister reports Poland cannot pay for Starlink for Ukraine due to Nawrocki's veto. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
STERNENKO reports "90 MILLION OUT OF 100!" for fundraising, indicating UAF's continued reliance on public support and transparent reporting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Sale of "new drop" (merchandise) to fund "total rusoriz." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Zelenskiy / Official and Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація posts video of President Zelenskyy meeting with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, a strong statement of international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
РБК-Україна posts a video of President Zelenskyy meeting Norwegian PM Jonas Gahr Store in Kyiv, emphasizing international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ambassador of USA to NATO states Trump still has many cards for peace in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Оперативний ЗСУ reports Polish President vetoed a law on payments to unemployed Ukrainians. This is a factual report of a development that may be exploited by RF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
"Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a video compilation of Russian TV segments showing explosions at oil refineries and burials of "occupiers." This is UAF counter-IO highlighting RF losses and domestic issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
РБК-Україна posts video showing destruction in Pishchane, Sumy Oblast, from an RF attack, highlighting civilian impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
STERNENKO posts a drone video of the Phoenix UAV unit operating in Pokrovsk, implying successful UAF operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Оперативний ЗСУ reports Norway's Parliament will consider allocating $8.45 billion to Ukraine for 2025-2026, confirming strong financial support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Олександр Вілкул (Ukrainian official) posts photos about reconstruction efforts in Kryvyi Rih, demonstrating resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy's statement about Russia trying to disrupt winter preparations through energy strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy announced a meeting between Ukrainian and US teams to discuss future negotiations with Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
STERNENKO confirms Zelenskyy's announcement of US-Ukraine negotiations meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація reports air raid alert lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Reconstruction of cultural objects in frontline communities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) announces a new MRI scanner, promoting civilian welfare and resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) post video of Zelenskyy meeting Norwegian PM, emphasizing international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts about awarding servicemen in the 58th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade, serving as a morale boost and counter-IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Photo of a soldier with a Ukrainian flag, captioned "Eastern direction." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
РБК-Україна reports Polish President vetoed social assistance for Ukrainians, a factual report of a development that may be exploited by RF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Polish PM Tusk states Poland will not send troops to Ukraine after the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
"Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a photo message on Ukrainian tactics using Yak-52 trainers for drone hunting. This is UAF IO about adaptive air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF IO, MEDIUM for operational veracity).
РБК-Україна posts Kellogg's speech on morale and endurance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Оперативний ЗСУ reports Kellogg's hope for a free and peaceful Ukraine by next Independence Day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering criminal influence in Odesa, indicating ongoing internal security efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Zelenskyy, Syniehubov, KMVA share a video about the battle of good vs. evil, emphasizing the need to stop Russia. This is a strong, unified message for national unity and international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
РБК-Україна reports Kellogg discussing a letter from Melania Trump to Putin, regarding children. This highlights the humanitarian aspect of the conflict from a Ukrainian perspective. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
STERNENKO reminds of ways to donate to "Total Rusoriz" (fundraising for drones), showing continued UAF resource needs and public engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Sale of "new drop" (merchandise) to fund "total rusoriz." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
ASTRA posts video of Ukrainian MFA condemning Woody Allen's participation in Moscow Film Week, a clear UAF counter-IO against normalization of relations with Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo of Woody Allen in Moscow, criticizing him. This is UAF counter-IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kit Kellogg makes statement about Russian casualties exceeding US WWII losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts photo claiming "successfully demobilized" RF personnel, implying heavy losses, a UAF counter-IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF counter-IO, MEDIUM for veracity).
STERNENKO warns of ballistic threat, urges shelter, and asks for donations to kill Russians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Оперативний ЗСУ warns of ballistic threat where alarms are declared. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Офіс Генерального прокурора reports illegal use of lands contaminated by Chornobyl accident, highlighting internal corruption and governance issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
РБК-Україна reports "🚀ПС: Швидкісна ціль на Сумщині" (Air Force: High-speed target in Sumy Oblast), indicating UAF actively monitors air threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) posts photos indicating at least 42 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast suffered enemy strikes last week, acting as UAF counter-IO to highlight RF aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues "☄️ Загроза застосування балістичного озброєння з південного напрямку!" (Threat of ballistic missile use from the southern direction!). This demonstrates UAF's active air defense and early warning systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports "Black Swan" assault battalion (225th Separate Assault Regiment) destroyed a building in Oleksiyivka where enemy personnel were concentrated. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
1.4. Relevant Dempster-Shafer Beliefs (Updated)
UPDATED BELIEF: "Military Action: Artillery Barrage by Russia on UAF in Kharkiv/Donetsk": The RF MoD video depicting Giatsint-B artillery engagement supports this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "Military Action: Drone Strike by Russia on ATV/Personnel in Undisclosed Location": Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "Internal Security: Sabotage Operation in Crimea (RF claim)": Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video of bomb in icon. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Mother died on son's grave in Zabaykalye (IO to promote sacrifice)": ASTRA photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: RF claims liberation of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast": Colonelcassad video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity, MEDIUM for visual evidence.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Casualties/Damage: 1 dead, 9 injured in Sumy Oblast shelling": ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Kazakh children singing Russian hit (IO to promote influence)": Басурин о главном video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Internal Issue: 48% of IT specialists want to leave Ukraine": Оперативний ЗСУ text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Control: Authorities want to allow Russians to voluntarily restrict access to 'dangerous content'": ASTRA text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Internal Security: Corruption in conscription/reservations for $19k": Офіс Генерального прокурора photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF-PLA Cooperation: Joint naval patrols completed in Pacific Ocean": MoD Russia video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF General Staff Reports: Clashes in Kharkiv (South Slobozhansky), Kupyansk, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Kursk, North Slobozhansky directions": Liveuamap Source text/photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF General Staff Reports: RF Aviation airstrikes at Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson regions": Liveuamap Source text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF General Staff Reports: UAF repelled 10 RF assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction": Liveuamap Source photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: RF MoD and milbloggers amplify claims of 'liberation' of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast": TASS, Военкор Котенок, Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны, Kotsnews. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Military Action: FPV Drone Strike on Alleged RF Officer in Pokrovsk Direction": Оперативний ЗСУ video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for FPV strike, MEDIUM for specific target identification).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Morale: Veteran entrepreneurship supported by Zaporizhzhia RSA": Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Morale/Counter-IO: HUR MOD special forces 'Ghosts' Independence Day greeting, drone successes": Оперативний ЗСУ video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: TASS reports on US-Ukraine diplomatic friction": TASS text message on Zaluzhny/Vance/Zelenskyy/Trump. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Fighterbomber post on Ka-52 commander": Fighterbomber photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Security: Enhanced security in Kursk Oblast schools": TASS text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Issue: Internet outage impacting retail in Pskov Oblast": Север.Реалии text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Colonelcassad 'Chronicle of strikes' on Ukraine": Colonelcassad photo/video messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Issue: Tanker explosion in Chukotka": ASTRA text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Morale: Kharkiv Oblast Administration post on return of personnel": Олег Синєгубов photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Basurin anti-Ukrainian language IO in Odesa": Басурин о главном photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Engagement with Allies: Romanian Armed Forces delegation visits Ukraine": Генеральний штаб ЗСУ photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Narodnaya Militsiya DNR highlights damage to cultural site (library) and digitization efforts": Народная милиция ДНР video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Morale: Ukrainian Marine Corps photo message": Генеральний штаб ЗСУ photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Polish President vetoes aid for Ukrainians (RF IO)": TASS photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Security: Investigative Committee opens case against Ukrainian militant in Kursk Oblast (RF IO)": TASS text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Crocus City Hall attack linked to religion/nationality (RF IO)": Alex Parker Returns photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Counter-IO: Russian official's statement on Kuril Islands gasoline halt (UAF IO)": STERNENKO photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Geran-2 strike on hidden infrastructure in Sloviansk (RF IO)": Басурин о главном photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Issue: Novoshakhtinsky Oil Refinery fire continues": Alex Parker Returns video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Disillusioned RF soldier captured, claims mistreatment (UAF IO)": БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video (RF IO frame, UAF reframing potential). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for UAF reframe).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Counter-IO: Local neutralizes Russian FPV drone near Pokrovsk": ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Counter-IO: Captured RF soldier signed contract to protect father (UAF IO)": Оперативний ЗСУ video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Israeli strikes on Gaza hospital (RF IO to divert/align)": TASS video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Fundraising: STERNENKO reports 90 million collected out of 100 million": STERNENKO text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Security: Kursk Oblast deputy governor detained for embezzlement of fortifications funds": Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Military Action/IO: MoD Russia claims 'Liberating Filiya' with video of combat": MoD Russia video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Security/IO: FSB detains woman in Crimea for icon bomb plot (RF IO)": Рыбарь video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Morale/Diplomacy: Zelenskyy meets Norwegian PM Jonas Gahr Støre": Zelenskiy / Official and Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація videos. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Ukraine's public debt growth graphic (RF IO)": Colonelcassad photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Russia returned children with Qatar's mediation (RF IO)": Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: UAF in Kamyshevakha in 'fire bag' after Zaporizhzhia 'liberation' (RF IO)": TASS text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Military Action: Homemade drone with explosives on Zaporizhzhia Front": Два майора video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Morale: Ukrainian paratroopers meet Independence Day on native land": Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "Weather Impact: Coldest day in Kyiv expected tomorrow": РБК-Україна photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Military Action: RF army advanced west of Kupyansk and in Udachne (RF IO)": Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Polish President proposes stricter citizenship conditions (RF IO to amplify divisions)": TASS text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Issue: Welders are highest paid profession in Russia (RF IO to show economic stability)": Новости Москвы photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Logistical Support: Delivery of medical equipment to medical facility (RF IO for humanitarian aid)": Народная милиция ДНР video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Issue: New labor regulations in Russia starting September 1st (Domestic news)": ТАСС text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Territorial Claim/IO: RF MoD claims 'Zaporozhskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) was liberated'": MoD Russia text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: WarGonzo drone video with explosive payload (RF combat footage/IO)": WarGonzo video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for drone capabilities shown).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Counter-IO: Russian TV shows refinery explosions and burials (UAF counter-IO)": Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Issue: Temporary flight restrictions at Vladikavkaz airport (Domestic news)": ASTRA text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Issue: Russian tourists stranded in Sanya, China due to typhoon (Domestic news)": ТАСС photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Casualties/Damage: Street in Pishchane, Sumy Oblast, destroyed by RF attack": РБК-Україна video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Military Action: Phoenix UAV unit operating in Pokrovsk (UAF combat footage)": STERNENKO video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Military Action/ISR: Colonelcassad drone footage showing UAF targets destroyed (RF combat footage/IO)": Colonelcassad video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for depicted destruction).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Security: Tactical shooting championship with international participants (RF IO for military prowess/alliances)": Kadyrov_95 video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Janus Putkonen post on Stubb's statements (Pro-RF IO for Western disunity)": Janus Putkonen photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Counter-IO: UAF DRG in Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, killing two (UAF counter-IO)": Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF IO, LOW for immediate verification of details).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF IO/Morale: "Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" rhetorical question (RF IO, open to interpretation)": "Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" text message. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Student fined for meme with swastika (RF IO to show anti-extremism efforts)": Alex Parker Returns photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Control: Bookstores warned about 'foreign agent' books (Internal information control)": Север.Реалии text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Domestic News: Court delays Igor Talkov murder case (Domestic news/distraction)": TASS text message. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Military Action: Ukrainian DRG activity in Kherson, 2 RF KIA (UAF claim)": БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Logistical Improvisation: Donkeys used as pack animals at front (RF tactical observation/IO)": МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for video, MEDIUM for "high-tech" interpretation, LOW for specific timeframe).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Domestic Politics: Putin meets Grigorenko on combating fraud (Domestic news/IO to show governance)": TASS video message. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Security: 15 million Russians use Gosuslugi for loan self-restriction (Domestic news/control)": TASS photo message. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Western dominance ending, Ukraine conflict shifts balance (RF IO)": Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Hungary in trap of political blackmail over Druzhba pipeline (RF IO to sow discord)": Басурин о главном video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Morale: 58th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade award ceremony (UAF counter-IO/morale)": ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Canada seriously involved for Ukraine (RF IO to portray Western overreach)": Воин DV text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Military Action/IO: 'Otvazhny' destroying militants in Krasnoarmeysk direction (RF combat footage/IO)": Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Logistical Need: DNR soldiers requesting quad bike (RF specific equipment need/fundraising)": Colonelcassad video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Diplomacy: Ukraine-US teams to discuss future negotiations with Russia (UAF diplomatic initiative)": Оперативний ЗСУ and STERNENKO text messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Leadership: Zelenskyy states Russia targets energy infrastructure to disrupt winter prep (UAF strategic communication)": РБК-Україна text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Counter-IO: Ukrainian Yak-52 trainers used for drone hunting (UAF IO for adaptive tactics)": Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF IO, MEDIUM for operational veracity.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Diplomacy: Putin informs Pezeshkian on US summit results (RF IO for diplomatic engagement)": ТАСС text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Diaspora raises voice (RF IO to highlight external support/division)": Рыбарь photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Morale: Kellogg speaks on morale and endurance (UAF strategic communication)": РБК-Україна video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Diplomatic Initiative: Kellogg hopes for free and peaceful Ukraine (UAF strategic communication)": Оперативний ЗСУ text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Internal Security: Criminal influence uncovered in Odesa (UAF domestic law enforcement)": Офіс Генерального прокурора photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Leadership: Zelenskyy, Syniehubov, KMVA address battle of good vs. evil (UAF strategic communication/morale)": Zelenskiy / Official, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) video messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Diplomacy: Kellogg discusses Melania Trump letter on children (UAF strategic communication)": РБК-Україна video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Russia and Nicaragua (RF IO for international alliances)": Colonelcassad photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Fundraising: STERNENKO reminds of 'Total Rusoriz' donations (UAF resource mobilization)": STERNENKO text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Ukrainians lose trust in TCC (RF IO exploiting internal issues)": Операция Z text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Counter-IO: Alleged fallen soldiers video (UAF counter-IO highlighting RF losses)": БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF counter-IO, MEDIUM for attribution.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Domestic News: Search for missing swimmer in Turkey (Domestic news/distraction)": ТАСС text message. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Counter-IO: MFA condemns Woody Allen's Moscow participation (UAF counter-IO against normalization)": ASTRA video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Air Defense: RF UAV course on Sumy (UAF operational alert)": Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Polish football fans banner (RF IO to show division/pro-RF sentiment)": Alex Parker Returns photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Counter-IO: Woody Allen in Moscow criticized (UAF counter-IO)": ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Counter-IO: 'Successfully demobilized' RF personnel (UAF counter-IO highlighting RF losses)": Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF counter-IO, MEDIUM for veracity.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Domestic News: Anti-abortion billboards in St. Petersburg (Domestic social issue/distraction)": Север.Реалии text message. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Casualties/Damage: Explosion in Sumy (UAF report of RF strike)": РБК-Україна text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Manafort offered services to Zaluzhny, refused (RF IO to highlight US influence/UAF internal politics)": TASS text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Polish President equates Bandera to Nazism, cuts aid (RF IO amplifying divisions)": Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, HIGH for factual basis of statements).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Military Action: FPV drone strike on recreation base in Щурово (RF claim)": Colonelcassad photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for strike veracity/target).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Military Action: UMPK strikes on 'Banderite concentration, UAV control, storage' (RF claim)": Fighterbomber video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of strikes).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Morale/International Support: Ukraine Independence Day rally in Rome (UAF counter-IO)": Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Domestic News/IO: Robot walking robodog in Moscow forum (Domestic news/IO for technological advancement/distraction)": ТАСС video message. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF IO/Elite Messaging: Adam Kadyrov receives medal (RF IO for internal morale/dynastic projection)": ASTRA, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Air Threat Lifted: Air alert ended (UAF operational update)": Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Domestic News/Distraction: Elderly woman rescued from bathtub (Domestic news/distraction)": Новости Москвы video message. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Combat Footage/IO: Russian/Chechen soldiers in snowy environment (RF IO for combat effectiveness/camaraderie)": "Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO/combat footage).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Intelligence Assessment: Zapad-2025 will involve up to 30k RF/Belarusian troops (UAF/Lithuanian intelligence)": РБК-Україна text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF IO/Cynicism: Alex Parker Returns 'who jinxed it' collage (RF IO/sarcasm)": Alex Parker Returns photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Casualties/Damage: Russian shelling in Kushuhum and Malokaterynivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast (UAF report)": ASTRA video/photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Air Alert: Ballistic missile threat from northeast (UAF operational alert)": 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Forces of Ukraine, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ text messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Positional Claim: Konstantinovka - Alexandro-Shultino as of 24.08.25 (RF IO)": Сливочный каприз photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Internal Security/Corruption: Illegal use of Chornobyl-contaminated lands (UAF law enforcement report)": Офіс Генерального прокурора photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Official Communication: Photo messages posted by Oleksandr Vilkul (Ukrainian official) with no text captions": Олександр Вілкул photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Morale/Propaganda: Sale of military-themed patches ('Wolf Cub 45') by АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА": АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Combat Footage/IO: Soldiers from 33rd Motor Rifle Regiment in Konstantinovka direction, promoting morale and unity": Два майора video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO, MEDIUM for specific unit and location veracity.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Air Defense: High-speed target detected in Sumy Oblast": РБК-Україна text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Polish President vetoes aid for Ukrainians, citing work requirement": Два майора and STERNENKO text messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for factual event, HIGH for RF IO exploitation.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Colonelcassad's claim of 'quiet demise' of Antonov aircraft production": Colonelcassad photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for objective assessment of Antonov's status.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Logistical Need: Ukrainian soldier appeals for new motorcycle after loss to drone strike": Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Infrastructure Concern: Inspection of Seversky Donets-Donbas water pipeline": Mash на Донбассе text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: 'Political Ukrainianism' (RF IO piece)": Рыбарь photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Allegations of corruption against Ukrainian anti-corruption activist (Vitaliy Shabunin)": Операция Z video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for veracity).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Polish digital minister states Poland cannot pay for Starlink for Kyiv due to veto": ТАСС text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, HIGH for factual basis of statement).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Security: Request for arrest of blogger Markaryan for 'insulting memory of defenders of the Fatherland'": ТАСС text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Man discussing geopolitical events from Russian perspective, critical of Western media": Два майора video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Kotsnews claims 'Western dominance is ending,' Ukraine conflict changed balance of power": Kotsnews text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Military Action/IO: Successful high-precision strikes on 24 AFU targets, including PVD and UAV warehouses": НгП раZVедка text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Alleged Ukrainian 'mined icon' plot in Crimea, defused by FSB": Старше Эдды text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for veracity of "mined icon" plot).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Casualties/Damage: At least 42 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast suffered enemy strikes last week": Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Air Alert: Ballistic missile threat from the southern direction": Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 text messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Domestic News: Information about RF Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov": ТАСС photo message. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Colonelcassad's cynical comment on Polish aid veto for Ukrainians": Colonelcassad text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Hungarian Foreign Minister claims EU is in decline, losing influence": Операция Z video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Combat Footage/IO: 30th special forces company of 36th army (Vostok group) operating in Novosiolovka area against enemy personnel": Воин DV video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claims).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Fundraising: Financial support for 42nd Separate Mechanized Brigade artillerymen for quad bike procurement": БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "Weather Impact: Severe hailstorm in St. Petersburg, Russia": Новости Москвы video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW BELIEF: "RF Military Action/IO: MoD Russia claims 'liberating Novogeorgiyevka in Dnepropetrovsk region' with video of soldiers discussing tactics": MoD Russia video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity of 'liberation').
NEW BELIEF: "UAF Counter-IO: Kit Kellogg statement on Russian casualties exceeding US WWII losses": ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW BELIEF: "UAF Information Warfare: STERNENKO promotes sale of merchandise to fund 'total rusoriz'": STERNENKO photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW BELIEF: "RF Internal Security: Legislation proposed in State Duma to transfer migrant health data to Interior Ministry": ТАСС text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW BELIEF: "UAF Air Defense: New KAB launches by RF tactical aviation towards Sumy Oblast": Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Zakharova states UAF strikes on 'Druzhba' oil pipeline are 'banditry' and 'terrorism'": ТАСС text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO)
NEW BELIEF: "RF Domestic News: 'Госключ' (Gosuslugi electronic signature) integrated into Max messenger": ТАСС text message. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW BELIEF: "UAF Civilian Welfare: Reconstruction of cultural objects in frontline communities via selection for 'Culture in Recovery' School": 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW BELIEF: "RF Internal Security: Arrest on property of former Deputy Director of FGUP GVSU No.4 of RF MoD Smetanyuk for 143 million rubles": ТАСС text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Kotsnews claims RF forces are encircling Konstantinovka": Kotsnews text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity)
NEW BELIEF: "RF IO/Misdirection: AV БогомаZ posts empty photo messages and statements disclaiming military analysis of non-military content": AV БогомаZ messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for content of message, LOW relevance)
NEW BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoi Vesny) claims USA is looking for a replacement for Zelensky": Операция Z text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO)
NEW BELIEF: "RF Civilian Distress/IO: Video of mother of ten children, widow of 'special operation' participant, appealing to Putin for help": БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF civilian distress, LOW for UAF context).
NEW BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Rybar graphic on 'Kyiv Flamingo' rockets identifying potential assembly locations": Рыбарь photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claim).
NEW BELIEF: "UAF Diplomatic Shift: Polish PM Tusk states Poland will not send troops to Ukraine after conflict": Два майора and РБК-Україна text messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW BELIEF: "UAF Diplomatic Shift: US Ambassador to NATO states Trump still has many cards for peace in Ukraine": РБК-Україна photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW BELIEF: "UAF Combat Success: 'Black Swan' assault battalion (225th Separate Assault Regiment) destroyed building with enemy personnel in Oleksiyivka": ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW BELIEF: "RF Internal Security: PE teacher from Izhevsk sentenced to 18 years for treason and preparing sabotage for 'Freedom of Russia' legion": Север.Реалии text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Offensive Ground Operations (Kharkiv/Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia): RF demonstrates capacity to sustain multi-axis ground pressure with air and EW support. New claims of advancing in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast near Philiia and Novogeorgiyevka, fording a river and breaking UAF defenses, supported by MoD Russia video. RF also conducted 500 strikes on 13 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including KAB strikes on Kushuhumska Hromada, and FPV drone/artillery attacks on Nikopol. ISW maps confirm RF offensive across the entire front. UAF General Staff indicates "enemy did not conduct offensive actions" in the Dnipro direction, contradicting RF claims for Philiia. Kotsnews video claims a 'Russian flag over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast,' with footage showing destruction and combat activity. TASS reports Pushilin claims RF groups are entering the outskirts of Konstantynivka in DNR and controlling the situation near Dobropillya. Воин DV claims "liberation" of Zaporizhzhia (Dnepropetrovsk Oblast) with video of thermal drone strike, and "Сливочный каприз" posts photos and video suggesting control in Великая Новосёлка - Запорожское. Colonelcassad and "Два майора" post photo and video claiming control over Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims an RF strike on the HQ of the 42nd Brigade in Preobrazhenka on the Dnipropetrovsk direction. TASS claims Southern Grouping of Forces destroyed a UAF ammunition depot in the Konstantynivka direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports RF forces struck gas infrastructure in Ukraine, near Dikanka (Poltava Oblast). Kotsnews posts a video with soldiers discussing fighting on the Dnipropetrovsk front, claiming difficulties in clearing areas and use of drones/artillery. Народная милиция ДНР posts drone footage claiming the destruction of a UAF pickup truck near Novy Ekonomycheskoye. Два майора posts a video claiming the destruction of a building with UAF personnel in Burgunka, Kherson Oblast, using FABs. Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны claim "Liberation of Filiya," with video showing drone footage of explosions, damaged buildings, and a Russian flag on a damaged structure. Воин DV posts video claiming destruction of 3 UAF armored vehicles in Novosiolovka area.
UPDATES:
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims "Russian army advanced to the west of Kupyansk and in Udachne," indicating continued offensive capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity.)
Басурин о главном claims a "Geran-2 pinpoint strike on hidden infrastructure" in Sloviansk, demonstrating precision strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, MEDIUM for capability, LOW for immediate veracity).
MoD Russia claims "Liberating Filiya: artillery support, drone strikes and river crossing" with video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity of "liberation"). MoD Russia also claims "liberating Novogeorgiyevka in Dnepropetrovsk region" with video of soldiers discussing tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity of "liberation").
"Два майора" posts video from "Zaporizhzhia Front" showing a homemade drone with explosives, indicating continued use of improvised methods for tactical engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for use of such drones, MEDIUM for the depicted combat scenario as recent).
RF MoD claims "Zaporozhskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) was liberated." (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity.)
WarGonzo posts a video showing a drone launching an explosive, indicative of continued tactical drone strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage with RF MoD logo and "Rubikon" emblem, showing destruction of various UAF military targets, demonstrating ISR and strike capabilities against UAF equipment and positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for capability, MEDIUM for specific context/timeframe).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, indicating continued combat effectiveness in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RF UAV heading to Sumy, confirming continued air attack capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Sumy, confirming active RF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages on Щурово, claiming an FPV drone strike on BAPON objects at the "Lipa" recreation base, indicating continued FPV drone use for tactical engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for strike veracity/target).
Fighterbomber posts video of UMPK strikes on a "concentration area of Banderites, UAV control post, and material storage," demonstrating the capability to target UAF C2 and logistical nodes with glide bombs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of strikes). Additional Fighterbomber video shows general explosions in a rural area, indicating ongoing military activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
ASTRA posts videos and photos of destruction in Kushuhum and Malokaterynivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, claiming it is from today's Russian shelling, confirming RF capability to strike civilian areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a ballistic missile threat from the northeast, confirming RF capability for long-range ballistic strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ballistic missile threat from the south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) announces air raid alarm for Kyiv due to ballistic missile threat, further confirming strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Сливочный каприз posts photo showing "Konstantinovka - Alexandro-Shultino" as of 24.08.25, suggesting continued positional fighting and ground engagement in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, indicating continued air threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Два майора posts video showing soldiers in a fortified position, identified with the 33rd Motor Rifle Berlin Don Cossack Regiment 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division in the Konstantinovka direction, providing evidence of RF ground force deployment and morale-boosting efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO, MEDIUM for specific unit and location veracity.)
НгП раZVедка reports successful operation overnight against 24 AFU targets (PVD and UAV warehouses), claiming elimination of enemy personnel, demonstrating continued RF strike capabilities and targeting intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity).
Воин DV posts video from the 30th special forces company of the 36th army of the "Vostok" group, claiming destruction of enemy personnel in the Novosiolovka area, indicating tactical ground operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claims).
Kotsnews claims RF forces are encircling Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity)
Air-Launched Guided Munitions & Mass Drone Production: Continued heavy use of KAB/FAB glide bombs and drone attacks. Demonstrated capability for drone-on-drone combat. Renewed and sustained multi-day drone/artillery attacks on Sumy. Два майора posts a video claiming the destruction of a building with UAF personnel in Burgunka, Kherson Oblast, using FABs. Sever.Realii reports that Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 104 Shahed and imitator drones in the night of August 25.
UPDATES:
Басурин о главном claims a "Geran-2 pinpoint strike on hidden infrastructure" in Sloviansk, suggesting continued precision strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, MEDIUM for capability).
WarGonzo posts a video showing a drone launching an explosive, reinforcing capabilities in drone-based tactical strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage showing destruction of various UAF military targets, demonstrating combined ISR and strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for capability).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RF UAV heading to Sumy, confirming continued air attack capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Sumy, confirming active RF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Fighterbomber posts video of UMPK strikes, confirming continued use of glide bombs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of strikes). Additional Fighterbomber video shows general explosions in a rural area, indicating ongoing military activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
ASTRA posts videos and photos of destruction in Kushuhum and Malokaterynivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, claiming it is from today's Russian shelling, indicating continued artillery and possibly missile capabilities against civilian areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a ballistic missile threat from the northeast, confirming missile capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ballistic missile threat from the south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, indicating continued air threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
НгП раZVедка reports successful high-precision strikes on 24 AFU targets, demonstrating the use of guided munitions for targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
Information Warfare: Capability to generate propaganda quickly, as seen with immediate claims of UAF strikes on Belgorod with civilian casualties, footage of alleged UAF equipment destruction, cynical posts about Ukrainian Independence Day, and exploiting diplomatic tensions. TASS highlights an RF MoD narrative of a junior sergeant evacuating wounded and claims of increased UAF strikes on RF territory. Colonelcassad's post about Ukraine's Independence Day in Zaporizhzhia and Alex Parker Returns' claim of a first FPV drone in Zaporizhzhia are attempts to diminish Ukrainian sovereignty. Colonelcassad's latest video showcasing "humanitarian aid" aims to boost morale. TASS also reports RF fire control over Karantynnyi Island (Kherson). New reports from Операция Z/Военкоры Русской Весны highlight alleged Israeli airstrikes in Yemen and now show a video of Kazakh children and Indians singing a Russian hit. TASS also reports on government plans to allow voluntary restriction of access to "dangerous content" for Russians. TASS reports Saldo claims UAF is burning forests in Kherson Oblast to intimidate civilians. TASS also reports pro-Russian underground sources claim residents evacuating Kyiv-controlled Kherson face corruption and bureaucracy. The TASS video features a man discussing agricultural activities, referring to prevention of fires as a "terrorist act." Saldo claims UAF destroyed half of all ambulances in frontline Kherson Oblast. Colonelcassad's photo message "Внимание, жители Украины!" indicates a continuation of psychological operations. The TASS video showing destruction and activity in Philiia, Dnipropetrovsk, is an attempt to support the new advance claim. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны are also expanding their reach with a new channel on the MAX messenger. TASS reports China Daily opinion on Zelenskyy needing to reach consensus for productive talks with Putin. TASS video of joint RF-PLA naval patrol serves to project military cooperation and strength. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RF Human Rights Commissioner Moskalova claims negotiations with Ukraine occurred in Belarus. TASS reports pro-Russian underground sources claim residents of Kyiv-controlled Zaporizhzhia Oblast are refusing evacuation efforts by Ukrainian authorities. TASS reports Andrei Marochko claims UAF losses, including foreign mercenaries, for the week in battles near Luhansk Oblast are almost 4.4 thousand killed and wounded. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" with photos and captions about "Airborne brotherhood, family" are recruitment/morale boosting. Colonelcassad's new photo messages, captioned "Moments of the SMO. Frontline weekdays.", showing a domestic cat on wooden crates, are attempts to normalize the conflict and humanize RF forces. TASS reports an executive proceeding against singer Zemfira* was closed after debts were paid, and Trump stated he would support annulling licenses of ABC and NBC for criticizing him. "Два майора" is publishing daily summaries with civilian-focused videos. RF is also showcasing heavy demining equipment. TASS reports that Southern Group of Forces' UAV and artillery crews destroyed a UAF UAV control post and radio equipment in DNR. TASS also reports Iran's Ambassador to RF states Israel's planned operation in Gaza will be a big crime. RBC-Ukraine reports on which European countries could see anti-Ukrainian forces win. Басурин о главном posts #ДЕНЬвИСТОРИИ. ТАСС also posts about South Korea-Trump meeting and Medvedev's tennis loss. Colonelcassad posts about channel information. Архангел Спецназа posts general good morning messages. ASTRA reports one person died and nine were injured in Sumy Oblast. ASTRA and TASS report the Prosecutor General's Office recognized the Swiss NGO "International Baccalaureate" as "undesirable." "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a photo message claiming the US Vice President stated Trump needs 6 more months to convince Putin to stop the war. RF milbloggers "Сливочный каприз" and Воин DV post videos/photos claiming territorial gains in Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk. Военкор Котенок hopes for a "good rocket" to hit Zelenskyy. TASS claims a peaceful resident was wounded in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. "Операция Z" posts a photo of a Ukrainian volunteer threatening Zelenskyy. TASS reports the FSB detained a woman in Crimea. STERNENKO reports RF is indoctrinating children in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a political cartoon captioning internal healthcare issues. ARKHANGEL SPETSNZAZA posts "Ukraine is strengthening". TASS reports suppression of a large online resource for illegal personal data distribution. WarGonzo reports "Europeans do not want to die for Ukraine." Sever.Realii posts a statement from State Duma deputy Butskaya that "Russians are not genetically wired for bananas or mangoes." TASS reports Russia-Europe relations will not be the same. Старше Эдды posts a meme discussing arresting a Stalin fan. TASS reports a former Ukrainian special service officer claims Kuznetsov, suspect in Nord Stream bombing, continued working for SBU on sabotage outside Ukraine. Colonelcassad reports Lieutenant Gomenko Igor, a police officer actively mobilizing residents in Odesa, was killed. TASS reports a "neo-Nazi" from The Times is threatening Zelenskyy with murder for "leaving" Donbas. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a photo message of a mother who died on her son's grave in Zabaykalye. Рыбарь posts a graphic with text "Призыв возвращается" (Conscription Returns). Басурин о главном posts a video showing an APC with Russian and American flags, explicitly as a message to "foreign media," confirming its IO purpose. Старше Эдды advocates for amending the criminal code to judge individuals based on political beliefs as an aggravating circumstance. РБК-Україна posts a video titled "No gasoline and there won't be: on Ukraine's Independence Day, Russian TV viewers were shown the truth about the war," which is a Ukrainian counter-IO piece highlighting Russian losses and resource issues. Kotsnews posts text stating "Hungary was slapped on the cheeks again. My note for the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine," indicating continued diplomatic tensions with Hungary.
UPDATES:
TASS reports Polish President Karol Nawrocki vetoed a bill extending special status for Ukrainians, which RF will leverage to sow discord. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports the Investigative Committee opened a case against a Ukrainian militant in Kursk, a clear criminalization narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Alex Parker Returns amplifies Crocus City Hall narratives, focusing on religious/ethnic angles, a continuation of divisive propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Басурин о главном claims a Geran-2 strike in Sloviansk, serving to project RF military effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video (described above) likely framed as RF IO, but can also be re-contextualized by UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for re-contextualization potential). Video of mother of ten children, widow of "special operation" participant, appealing to Putin for help, used to humanize the cost of war for RF and garner sympathy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF civilian distress, LOW for UAF context).
TASS posts on Israeli strikes on a Gaza hospital, a diversionary tactic to focus on other international conflicts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Legislation proposed in State Duma to transfer migrant health data to Interior Ministry. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) "Госключ" integrated into Max messenger. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE) Arrest on property of former Deputy Director of FGUP GVSU No.4 of RF MoD Smetanyuk for 143 million rubles, indicating a focus on internal corruption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Рыбарь posts "Bomb in an Icon" video, amplifying the narrative of Ukrainian sabotage in Crimea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO). Graphic regarding "Kyiv Flamingo" (rockets) identifies potential assembly locations, likely an IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claim).
Colonelcassad posts a graphic on "Growth of Ukraine's public debt by 2025," an RF IO attempt to highlight Ukraine's financial vulnerability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Photo of "Труха" and several black/blurry videos with "ТРУХА" watermark, likely IO material. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for actual content).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video of "Russia returned children to the Motherland through the mediation of Qatar," a humanitarian IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Report from "Voenkory Russkoi Vesny" also claims USA is looking for a replacement for Zelensky. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky claims UAF in Kamyshevakha are in a "fire bag" after Zaporizhzhia "liberation," amplifying RF territorial claims. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
"Два майора" posts video of a woman with curly blonde hair and sunglasses on the steps of what appears to be a military tank, possibly a morale-boosting or humanizing IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Polish PM Tusk states Poland will not send troops to Ukraine after the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
TASS reports Poland's President proposed stricter conditions for obtaining Polish citizenship, including denying it to those sympathizing with "Bandera ideology." This is a significant RF IO piece to amplify divisions between Poland and Ukraine and appeal to anti-Ukrainian sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Новости Москвы reports on "welders leading the rating of highest-paid professions in Russia," a domestic news item that supports the narrative of internal economic strength and normalcy. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Народная милиция ДНР posts video showing delivery of medical equipment, framed as humanitarian aid, to support narrative of positive engagement in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
TASS reports on new regulations for salaries and working conditions in Russia starting Sept 1st. Domestic news to show government functionality. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Vladikavkaz airport. Domestic news related to air travel, likely a weather-related or operational issue. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Russian tourists stranded in Sanya, China due to typhoon. Domestic news focusing on citizen welfare. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kadyrov_95 posts a video on a tactical shooting championship, featuring participants from Russia and "friendly countries" (Kuwait, Bahrain, Chechnya). This is an RF IO piece to project military prowess and international alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Janus Putkonen (Finnish pro-RF source) posts about Finnish President Stubb's statements "not spreading well." This is a pro-RF IO piece aiming to highlight perceived Western disunity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
"Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" (RF source) posts a rhetorical question "What else can the military do besides kill?", possibly to provoke discussion or portray a more complex image of military personnel, potentially aimed at subtly influencing domestic and international perceptions. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE for IO, could be interpreted in various ways).
Alex Parker Returns posts an image claiming a Russian student was fined for a meme with a swastika, likely an RF IO attempt to portray internal anti-extremism efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Север.Реалии reports on Russian bookstores being warned about restrictions on "foreign agent" books, indicating continued internal information control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). PE teacher from Izhevsk sentenced for treason and sabotage, indicating RF internal security efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Старше Эдды references a discussion with Andrey Medvedev, indicating continued milblogger engagement on internal discourse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports court proceedings on Igor Talkov murder case delayed, a domestic news item used as distraction. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS posts video of Putin meeting Grigorenko, discussing combating fraud, serving as IO to show government functionality. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports 15 million Russians used "Gosuslugi" for self-restriction on loans, an IO piece to show internal control and protect citizens. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts that "Western dominance ending, Ukraine conflict shifts balance," an IO piece to delegitimize Western influence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Басурин о главном posts a video "Dark shadow over 'Druzhba': Hungary in a trap of political blackmail," an RF IO piece attempting to sow discord between Ukraine and Hungary and exploit energy security concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Воин DV states "Canada is seriously getting involved for Ukraine," likely an RF IO piece to portray Western overreach. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
ASTRA reports on journalists killed in Israeli airstrike in Gaza, an RF IO attempt to divert attention. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video with Zelenskyy discussing "Druzhba" pipeline strikes, an RF IO attempt to portray Zelenskyy's reaction negatively. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO framing, MEDIUM for actual content).
ASTRA posts VPN advertisement, implying a need for bypassing internet restrictions in Russia, which RF tries to counter. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for advertisement, MEDIUM for implied demand).
TASS reports Putin informed Pezeshkian (Iran) about US summit results. This is RF IO projecting diplomatic engagement with non-Western partners to counter Western efforts to isolate RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Рыбарь posts graphic "Диаспора подала голос," clearly IO attempting to highlight/frame diaspora communities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Военкор Котенок claims Poles "snapped at the Ukrainians today," likely referring to the Polish veto, reinforcing an RF IO narrative of diminishing support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
ASTRA posts video of Ukrainian MFA condemning Woody Allen's participation in Moscow Film Week. This is UAF counter-IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo of Woody Allen in Moscow, criticizing him. This is UAF counter-IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kit Kellogg makes statement about Russian casualties exceeding US WWII losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
TASS reports Polish President proposed equating "Bandera ideology" with fascism. This is a significant RF IO piece to amplify divisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Операция Z posts bar chart on Ukrainians losing trust in TCC (mobilization centers). This is RF IO exploiting internal Ukrainian challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO). Report from "Voenkory Russkoi Vesny" also claims USA is looking for a replacement for Zelensky. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
TASS reports Politconsultant Paul Manafort offered his services to Zaluzhny, who refused. This is an RF IO piece attempting to highlight perceived US influence on UAF leadership or internal divisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming Polish President will equate Bandera symbolism with Nazism and cut aid to Ukrainians. This is RF IO amplifying a real event and leveraging historical grievances to sow discord. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, HIGH for factual basis of statements).
Alex Parker Returns comments cynically on Adam Kadyrov receiving a medal, which, while a reaction, is a form of IO to cast doubt on RF narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS posts video of a robot walking a "robodog" in Moscow. This is domestic news serving as distraction and projecting technological advancement. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Новости Москвы posts video about an elderly woman stuck in a bathtub. This is domestic news serving as distraction/normalization. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
"Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" posts video of Russian/Chechen soldiers in a snowy environment. This is RF IO for combat effectiveness and camaraderie. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO/combat footage).
РБК-Україна reports Lithuanian intelligence assesses 30,000 RF and Belarusian troops will participate in "Zapad-2025" exercises. This highlights potential for large-scale military exercises, contributing to internal security projection. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ambassador of USA to NATO states Trump still has many cards for peace in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Alex Parker Returns posts photo collage "The puzzle came together. This is who jinxed it," as a cynical/sarcastic IO piece against RF narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Офіс Генерального прокурора reports illegal use of lands contaminated by Chornobyl accident. RF will attempt to exploit such internal Ukrainian issues to discredit the Ukrainian government. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts about military-themed patches, which acts as morale-boosting IO and community building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Два майора posts on Polish President Nawrocki's veto and its implications, aiming to highlight weakening Western support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Polish PM Tusk states Poland will not send troops to Ukraine after the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Colonelcassad posts about Antonov production, an RF IO piece to portray Ukrainian industrial decline. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO) Photo of "Труха" and several black/blurry videos with "ТРУХА" watermark, likely IO material. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for actual content).
Рыбарь posts "Political Ukrainianism," an IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO). Graphic regarding "Kyiv Flamingo" (rockets) identifies potential assembly locations, likely an IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claim).
Операция Z posts video alleging corruption by Vitaliy Shabunin, an RF IO piece targeting Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for veracity).
ТАСС reports Polish digital minister's statement on Starlink, used to amplify the negative impact of the Polish veto on Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO)
ТАСС reports on the arrest request for blogger Markaryan, an internal security measure that RF can use to demonstrate control and deter criticism. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Два майора posts a video discussing geopolitical narratives, intending to justify Russian actions and criticize Western media, a clear IO effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO)
Kotsnews states "Western dominance is ending. The conflict in Ukraine has changed the balance of power," a major RF IO narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO). Claims RF forces are encircling Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity)
НгП раZVедка reports successful high-precision strikes on 24 AFU targets, an RF IO piece to project military effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity).
Старше Эдды reports on the alleged Ukrainian "mined icon" plot in Crimea, an RF IO piece to demonize Ukraine and justify internal security measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for veracity).
ТАСС provides information on RF Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov, used for domestic normalization. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Arrest on property of former Deputy Director of FGUP GVSU No.4 of RF MoD Smetanyuk for 143 million rubles, indicating a focus on internal corruption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Colonelcassad comments cynically on Polish aid veto, reinforcing RF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Операция Z posts video of Hungarian Foreign Minister's comments on EU decline, amplifying anti-EU narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
AV БогомаZ posts empty photo messages and text stating it cannot analyze images depicting historical exhibitions. This is potentially an attempt to introduce non-military content or obfuscate. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for content of message, LOW relevance).
Intentions:
Degrade Ukrainian Military Capacity and Morale: Continue offensive pressure, inflict damage with KABs, drones, ballistic missiles, and precision artillery, and use information operations to demoralize. The sustained attack on Sumy is intended to degrade infrastructure and civilian morale. Maintain fire control over critical areas (Karantynnyi Island). Intends to discredit UAF and civilian authorities in controlled territories (Kherson forest burning, evacuee corruption claims). Aims to demonstrate capability and commitment to infrastructure in occupied territories (Kherson water supply). NEW INTENTION: Demonize UAF actions by falsely claiming destruction of civilian humanitarian assets (ambulances). Intends to demoralize UAF by exaggerating casualties (Luhansk claim). RF intends to degrade UAF C2 and equipment (UAV control post destruction claim). Ganchev's statement expresses clear intent for territorial gain in Kharkiv. Kotsnews video claiming Russian flag over Dnipropetrovsk aims to demoralize and project control. Colonelcassad's claim of HQ destruction in Kramatorsk aims to demonstrate successful targeting of UAF command. Pushilin's claims on Konstantynivka and Dobropillya indicate intent for territorial gains and control. Воин DV and "Сливочный каприз" posts suggesting intent to claim recent territorial gains in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia. Военкор Котенок's statement about Zelenskyy indicates intent to eliminate UAF leadership. TASS claim of civilian injury in Belgorod is intended to demonize UAF actions. TASS claim of ammunition depot destruction is intended to demonstrate successful targeting of UAF logistics. Strikes on gas infrastructure (Poltava) and logistical complexes (Tatarstan) indicate intent to degrade Ukrainian energy and logistical support. Narodная милиция ДНР video indicates intent to highlight successful targeting of UAF equipment. Два майора video indicates intent to highlight successful destruction of UAF personnel/positions. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claim about "Druzhba" pipeline aims to highlight potential Ukrainian logistical weaknesses. TASS reports a "neo-Nazi" from The Times is threatening Zelenskyy with murder for "leaving" Donbas, intended to portray internal divisions within Ukraine. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts on mother dying on son's grave, intended to promote sacrifice or exploit grief. Рыбарь's "Conscription Returns" graphic indicates intent to promote mobilization. Операция Z Filiya claim and Воин DV Novosiolovka claim contribute to narratives of RF success. The complicated situation in Lyman (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) will likely be leveraged by RF to show UAF struggles.
UPDATES:
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims "Russian army advanced to the west of Kupyansk and in Udachne," indicating intent for territorial gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
Басурин о главном claims a Geran-2 strike in Sloviansk, demonstrating intent to degrade Ukrainian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
MoD Russia claims "Liberating Filiya" with video, a clear intent to project successful offensive operations and territorial control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). MoD Russia also claims "liberating Novogeorgiyevka in Dnepropetrovsk region," reflecting intent for territorial gain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO)
TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky claims UAF in Kamyshevakha are in a "fire bag," indicating intent to show UAF being encircled or defeated. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
"Два майора" posts video of a homemade drone with explosives, demonstrating intent to continue using diverse means to degrade UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RF MoD claims "Zaporozhskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) was liberated," reflecting intent to claim territorial gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
WarGonzo posts drone video showing an explosive payload, used in tactical engagements to support ground advances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage showing destruction of various UAF military targets, demonstrating intent to degrade UAF combat capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
"Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" rhetorical question (What else can the military do besides kill?) may be intended to subtly influence perceptions of military actions. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Zelenskyy states Russia is attempting to disrupt winter preparations through energy infrastructure strikes, aligning with the intent to degrade Ukrainian capacity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian DRG activity in Kherson. RF will intend to counter such actions and use them to justify heightened security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, reinforcing intent to inflict losses and gain ground. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
Colonelcassad posts video of soldiers requesting a quad bike, indicating the intent to improve logistical support for frontline units and sustain operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RF UAV heading to Sumy. This indicates intent to continue striking Ukrainian targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Sumy, indicating continued intent to degrade infrastructure and cause casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages on Щурово, claiming an FPV drone strike on BAPON objects at the "Lipa" recreation base, reflecting intent to degrade UAF infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for strike veracity/target).
Fighterbomber posts video of UMPK strikes on a "concentration area of Banderites, UAV control post, and material storage," indicating intent to degrade UAF C2 and logistical capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of strikes). Additional Fighterbomber video shows general explosions in a rural area, indicating ongoing military activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
ASTRA posts videos and photos of destruction in Kushuhum and Malokaterynivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, claiming it is from today's Russian shelling, clearly demonstrating intent to inflict damage on civilian areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a ballistic missile threat from the northeast, indicating intent to conduct strategic strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ballistic missile threat from the south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Forces of Ukraine reports high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, showing intent to continue air attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Два майора posts video showing soldiers in Konstantinovka direction, promoting morale and determination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO)
НгП раZVедка reports successful high-precision strikes and elimination of enemy personnel, with intent to project military effectiveness and demoralize UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity).
Старше Эдды reports on the alleged "mined icon" plot, with intent to demonize Ukraine and justify RF internal security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for veracity of "mined icon" plot).
Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) posts photos of damage in Kharkiv, RF intent is to inflict this damage to break civilian will and degrade infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kotsnews claims RF forces are encircling Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity)
Воин DV posts video claiming destruction of enemy personnel in Novosiolovka, indicating intent to inflict casualties and gain ground. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claims).
Discredit Ukrainian Government and International Support: Use claims of civilian targeting (Belgorod, Moscow, Smolensk, Bryansk, other RF regions) to portray Ukraine as an aggressor. Undermine Ukrainian national holidays through cynical propaganda. Employ rhetoric (Starshaya Eddy, Alex Parker Returns on Hungary, Operatsiya Z on Germany) to portray Ukraine as a destabilizing force in Europe and Western support as weakness. Discredit UAF personnel (captured soldier video). May also seek to amplify internal Western disputes (US-France, Trump/US media, RBC-Ukraine report on anti-Ukrainian forces, Merz statement from TASS, Colonelcassad's quote of Merz) to weaken support. New intention to leverage foreign media (China Daily) to push RF-aligned diplomatic narratives and stage false diplomatic claims (Moskalova) to undermine Ukraine's international standing. Intends to portray UAF as untrustworthy by claiming refusal of evacuation in occupied territories. RF will also likely exploit RBC-Ukraine's report on anti-Ukrainian forces in Europe. Операция Z's claim about Yak-52s is intended to mock UAF's resourcefulness. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" post indicates intent to undermine Western resolve. Военкоры Русской Весны (Операция Z) post about UK mobile morgues suggests intent to create panic and suggest Western weakness. "Два майора" post on migratory policy indicates intent to link domestic issues to conflict and support hardline internal policy. TASS claim of Crimea sabotage plot is intended to demonize UAF special services. "Операция Z" post on Ukrainian volunteer threatening Zelenskyy is intended to highlight internal dissent within Ukraine. WarGonzo post on Europeans not wanting to die for Ukraine and Sever.Realii post about "genetically not wired" Russians for certain foods are intended to undermine international support and foster nationalistic sentiment. TASS Stubb statement is intended to signal a new reality for Russia-Europe relations. Старше Эдды meme is intended to highlight Western paranoia. TASS Prozorov claim is intended to frame SBU as engaged in international sabotage. Colonelcassad Gomenko claim is intended to highlight alleged corruption and brutality of Ukrainian mobilization. Басурин о главном video (APC with flags) explicitly states its purpose is to counter "foreign media" narratives, confirming intent to discredit. Kotsnews comment on Hungary indicates intent to highlight and exploit diplomatic rifts.
UPDATES:
TASS reports Polish President Karol Nawrocki vetoed a bill extending special status for Ukrainians, clearly intending to highlight weakening European support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports on the Investigative Committee opening a case against a Ukrainian militant in Kursk, intending to criminalize Ukrainian actions and legitimize RF defensive operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Alex Parker Returns amplifies Crocus City Hall narratives, focusing on religious/ethnic angles, with the intent to sow discord and justify xenophobia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video featuring a man recounting alleged mistreatment, beatings, and eventual execution by "Dudka" and "Batrak" after being captured in Ukraine, followed by claims of his own mistreatment by Ukrainian authorities for PTSD. This is likely an RF IO piece aiming to demoralize UAF and portray internal brutality. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for veracity). Video of mother of ten children, widow of "special operation" participant, appealing to Putin for help, used to humanize the cost of war for RF and garner sympathy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF civilian distress, LOW for UAF context).
TASS posts on Israeli strikes on a Gaza hospital, intending to divert attention from Ukraine and align with anti-Western sentiments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Рыбарь posts "Bomb in an Icon" video, amplifying the narrative of Ukrainian sabotage in Crimea to discredit Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO). Graphic regarding "Kyiv Flamingo" (rockets) identifies potential assembly locations, likely an IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claim).
Colonelcassad posts a graphic on Ukraine's public debt, intending to highlight financial vulnerability and discredit the Ukrainian government. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Photo of "Труха" and several black/blurry videos with "ТРУХА" watermark, likely IO material. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for actual content).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video of "Russia returned children to the Motherland through the mediation of Qatar," aiming to portray Russia as a humanitarian actor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Report from "Voenkory Russkoi Vesny" also claims USA is looking for a replacement for Zelensky. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky claims UAF in Kamyshevakha are in a "fire bag," intending to amplify a narrative of Ukrainian defeat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports Poland's President proposed stricter conditions for obtaining Polish citizenship, including denying it to those sympathizing with "Bandera ideology." This is a significant RF IO piece to amplify divisions between Poland and Ukraine and appeal to anti-Ukrainian sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Janus Putkonen (Finnish pro-RF source) posts about Finnish President Stubb's statements "not spreading well." This is a pro-RF IO piece aiming to highlight perceived Western disunity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Alex Parker Returns posts an image claiming a Russian student was fined for a meme with a swastika, an RF IO attempt to portray internal anti-extremism efforts, possibly to distract or justify. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Север.Реалии reports on bookstores warned about "foreign agent" books, indicating intent to control information and suppress dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). PE teacher from Izhevsk sentenced for treason and sabotage, indicating RF internal security efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts that "Western dominance ending, Ukraine conflict shifts balance," an IO piece to delegitimize Western influence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Басурин о главном posts a video "Dark shadow over 'Druzhba': Hungary in a trap of political blackmail," explicitly intending to sow discord between Ukraine and its allies and apply pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Воин DV states "Canada is seriously getting involved for Ukraine," intending to portray Western overreach and potential negative consequences. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video with Zelenskyy discussing "Druzhba" pipeline strikes, intending to frame Ukrainian actions negatively regarding critical infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO framing, MEDIUM for actual content).
РБК-Україна reports Polish President vetoed social assistance for Ukrainians, which RF will leverage to show diminishing Western support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Polish PM Tusk states Poland will not send troops to Ukraine after the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
TASS reports Putin informed Pezeshkian (Iran) about US summit results. This is RF IO projecting diplomatic engagement with non-Western partners to counter Western efforts to isolate RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Рыбарь posts graphic "Диаспора подала голос," clearly IO attempting to highlight/frame diaspora communities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Военкор Котенок claims Poles "snapped at the Ukrainians today," likely referring to the Polish veto, reinforcing an RF IO narrative of diminishing support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
ASTRA posts video of Ukrainian MFA condemning Woody Allen's participation in Moscow Film Week. This is UAF counter-IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo of Woody Allen in Moscow, criticizing him. This is UAF counter-IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kit Kellogg makes statement about Russian casualties exceeding US WWII losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
TASS reports Polish President proposed equating "Bandera ideology" with fascism. This is a significant RF IO piece to amplify divisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Операция Z posts bar chart on Ukrainians losing trust in TCC (mobilization centers). This is RF IO exploiting internal Ukrainian challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
TASS reports Politconsultant Paul Manafort offered his services to Zaluzhny, who refused. This is an RF IO piece attempting to highlight perceived US influence on UAF leadership or internal divisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming Polish President will equate Bandera symbolism with Nazism and cut aid to Ukrainians. This is RF IO amplifying a real event and leveraging historical grievances to sow discord. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, HIGH for factual basis of statements).
Alex Parker Returns comments cynically on Adam Kadyrov receiving a medal, which, while a reaction, is a form of IO to cast doubt on RF narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
РБК-Україна reports Lithuanian intelligence assesses 30,000 RF and Belarusian troops will participate in "Zapad-2025" exercises. RF will intend to use such information (if released officially by them) as a display of strength to deter further Western involvement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ambassador of USA to NATO states Trump still has many cards for peace in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Alex Parker Returns posts photo collage "The puzzle came together. This is who jinxed it," as a cynical/sarcastic IO piece against RF narratives, but RF will seek to twist these narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Офіс Генерального прокурора reports illegal use of lands contaminated by Chornobyl accident. RF will attempt to exploit such internal Ukrainian issues to discredit the Ukrainian government. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Два майора posts on Polish President Nawrocki's veto and its implications, aiming to highlight weakening Western support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Polish PM Tusk states Poland will not send troops to Ukraine after the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Colonelcassad posts about Antonov production, intending to portray Ukrainian industrial decline. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO). Photo of "Труха" and several black/blurry videos with "ТРУХА" watermark, likely IO material. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for actual content).
Рыбарь posts "Political Ukrainianism," intending to undermine Ukrainian national identity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO). Graphic regarding "Kyiv Flamingo" (rockets) identifies potential assembly locations, likely an IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claim).
Операция Z posts video alleging corruption by Vitaliy Shabunin, intending to delegitimize Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for veracity). Report from "Voenkory Russkoi Vesny" also claims USA is looking for a replacement for Zelensky. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
ТАСС reports Polish digital minister's statement on Starlink, intending to highlight the impact of the veto on Ukraine's critical infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO)
ТАСС reports on the arrest request for blogger Markaryan, an internal security measure that RF can use to demonstrate control and deter criticism. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Два майора posts a video discussing geopolitical narratives, intending to justify Russian actions and criticize Western media. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO)
Kotsnews states "Western dominance is ending," intending to promote a narrative of shifting global power dynamics in favor of Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO). Claims RF forces are encircling Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity)
Старше Эдды reports on the alleged "mined icon" plot, intending to demonize Ukraine and justify RF internal security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for veracity).
Colonelcassad's cynical comment on Polish aid veto reinforces the narrative of diminishing international support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Операция Z posts video of Hungarian Foreign Minister's comments on EU decline, intending to amplify anti-EU narratives and portray Western disunity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
AV БогомаZ posts empty photo messages and text stating it cannot analyze images depicting historical exhibitions. This is potentially an attempt to introduce non-military content or obfuscate. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for content of message, LOW relevance).
Север.Реалии reports a PE teacher from Izhevsk was sentenced to 18 years for treason and preparing sabotage for the "Freedom of Russia" legion. This RF internal security narrative will be used to justify further crackdowns and demonize opposition. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Address Internal Hardline Criticisms and Project Strength: Claiming successful UAV interceptions (including over Moscow, Smolensk, Bryansk, and other RF regions) and blaming UAF for civilian casualties serves to rally domestic support. Showcasing precision strikes, drone combat, individual heroism (Pirozhenko, Hyacinth commander), and public support for military efforts (Colonelcassad's aid video) reinforces military effectiveness. The claim of increased UAF strikes on RF territory serves to justify RF actions. Imposing air alert regimes indicates a focus on internal security and resilience. Response to internal incidents (Moscow explosion, Bazarov detention) and recruitment drives (Khabarovsk, Airborne brotherhood posts including ceremonies) aim to maintain domestic stability and control. Promoting cultural influence (Kazakh children) and showcasing military ties with China (Beijing parade, joint naval patrol) project global standing. Normalizing conflict (cat on ammo boxes, civilian-focused videos by "Два майора") helps manage public perception. TASS suppression of illegal personal data distribution reinforces internal security. Новости Москвы reports on Russian exceptionalism (39%) to boost nationalism. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники post about their bot aims to support mobilization efforts. TASS reports Bazarov's detention details, to demonstrate effectiveness of internal anti-corruption efforts. TASS drug lab report aims to demonstrate effective law enforcement. Mash на Донбассе video of fatal car crash and Новости Москвы tram video are for domestic consumption and distraction, promoting normalcy. TASS report on solar flare is a purely factual, but diverting, piece of information. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники post on mother dying on son's grave, and Рыбарь's "Conscription Returns" graphic, are direct attempts to shape public opinion on military service and casualties. Старше Эдды's advocacy for judging based on political beliefs aims to shape internal legal frameworks to suppress dissent.
UPDATES:
TASS reports on the Investigative Committee opening a case against a Ukrainian militant in Kursk, intending to project strength in protecting RF territory and prosecuting perceived threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the detention of a Kursk Oblast deputy governor for embezzlement related to fortifications, which RF will likely use to demonstrate internal accountability and control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports on Mikhail Degtyarev heading the TASS "For Loyalty" award jury, contributing to the narrative of domestic stability and recognition. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports the need to toughen punishment for disseminating Russians' personal data, indicating intent to reinforce internal information control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Рыбарь posts "Bomb in an Icon" video, intending to justify internal security measures by highlighting alleged Ukrainian sabotage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO). Graphic regarding "Kyiv Flamingo" (rockets) identifies potential assembly locations, likely an IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claim).
"Два майора" posts video of a woman with curly blonde hair and sunglasses on the steps of what appears to be a military tank, potentially intended to humanize military activity and boost morale/support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Новости Москвы reports on "welders leading the rating of highest-paid professions in Russia," demonstrating domestic economic strength. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports on new regulations for salaries and working conditions in Russia starting Sept 1st. Domestic news to show government functionality and maintain internal stability. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Vladikavkaz airport. Domestic news related to air travel, likely a weather-related or operational issue. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Russian tourists stranded in Sanya, China due to typhoon. Domestic news focusing on citizen welfare. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kadyrov_95 posts a video on a tactical shooting championship, showcasing military prowess and training, which contributes to internal security and professionalization of forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
"Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" rhetorical question (What else can the military do besides kill?) may be intended to generate discussion or portray military personnel in a more nuanced light for domestic audiences. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Alex Parker Returns posts an image claiming a Russian student was fined for a meme with a swastika, an RF IO attempt to project strength in controlling extremism. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Север.Реалии reports on bookstores warned about "foreign agent" books, indicating intent to maintain internal ideological control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). PE teacher from Izhevsk sentenced for treason and sabotage, indicating RF internal security efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
TASS posts video of Putin meeting Grigorenko, discussing combating fraud, showing leadership's focus on internal stability. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports 15 million Russians used "Gosuslugi" for self-restriction on loans, showing government concern for citizens' welfare and control. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video of "caravan of high-tech donkeys," which, while showing improvisation, contributes to the narrative of sustained effort in the face of challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for video, MEDIUM for "high-tech" interpretation, LOW for specific timeframe).
TASS posts video of Putin meeting Grigorenko, discussing anti-fraud measures and AI. This is RF IO demonstrating governmental functionality and concern for citizens. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Север.Реалии reports on anti-abortion billboards in St. Petersburg, reflecting internal social policies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
ASTRA and TASS report Adam Kadyrov received a medal. This is RF IO for internal morale boosting and dynastic projection. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Новости Москвы posts video about an elderly woman stuck in a bathtub, promoting normalcy and public service. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
"Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" posts video of Russian/Chechen soldiers in a snowy environment, projecting combat effectiveness and morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO/combat footage).
РБК-Україна reports Lithuanian intelligence assesses 30,000 RF and Belarusian troops will participate in "Zapad-2025" exercises. This highlights potential for large-scale military exercises, contributing to internal security projection. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Офіс Генерального прокурора reports illegal use of lands contaminated by Chornobyl accident. RF will exploit such internal Ukrainian issues as a distraction, or to highlight internal governance failures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
ТАСС reports on the arrest request for blogger Markaryan, demonstrating an active internal security response to perceived threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Arrest on property of former Deputy Director of FGUP GVSU No.4 of RF MoD Smetanyuk for 143 million rubles, indicating a focus on internal corruption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
AV БогомаZ posts empty photo messages and text stating it cannot analyze images depicting historical exhibitions. This is potentially an attempt to introduce non-military content or obfuscate. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for content of message, LOW relevance).
Expand Territorial Control: Continue to press advances in Kharkiv (Vovchansk, Lyptsi) and Donetsk (Chasiv Yar, Konstantynivka). New claims of advancing in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF is also maintaining offensive pressure across the Zaporizhzhia axis. ISW maps confirm RF is advancing along the entire front. Ganchev's statement clearly indicates this intent. Kotsnews video claims Russian flag over Dnipropetrovsk, aiming to signal territorial gain. Pushilin's claims on Konstantynivka and Dobropillya clearly indicate this intent. Воин DV and "Сливочный каприз" posts about "liberating" or controlling areas in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia further reinforce this. Colonelcassad and "Два майора" post photo and video claiming control over Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), aiming to signal territorial gain. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims an RF strike on the HQ of the 42nd Brigade in Preobrazhenka, likely to demonstrate degradation of UAF command. Narodная милиция ДНР video indicates intent to target UAF equipment. Два майора video indicates intent to destroy UAF positions. Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны claim "Liberation of Filiya" and Воин DV claim destruction of 3 UAF armored vehicles are new examples of such claims and actions.
UPDATES:
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports "Russian army advanced to the west of Kupyansk and in Udachne," a direct statement of intent for territorial expansion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
MoD Russia claims "Liberating Filiya: artillery support, drone strikes and river crossing" with video, explicitly stating intent for territorial gain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). MoD Russia also claims "liberating Novogeorgiyevka in Dnepropetrovsk region," another explicit statement of intent for territorial gain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO)
TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky claims UAF in Kamyshevakha are in a "fire bag" after Zaporizhzhia "liberation," implying successful territorial control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
"Два майора" posts video of a homemade drone with explosives, indicating continued tactical efforts to achieve gains on the Zaporizhzhia front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RF MoD claims "Zaporozhskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) was liberated," a clear intent to claim territorial control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
WarGonzo posts a drone video showing an explosive payload, used in tactical engagements to support ground advances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage showing destruction of various UAF military targets, which supports ground operations by degrading UAF defenses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, indicating continued intent to clear and secure territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
Сливочный каприз posts photo showing "Konstantinovka - Alexandro-Shultino" as of 24.08.25, indicating intent to claim positional gains and maintain pressure in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity).
Два майора posts video showing soldiers in Konstantinovka direction, explicitly stating they are from a motor rifle regiment, indicating intent for ground control and consolidation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO)
НгП раZVедка reports successful operation against AFU targets, intending to project effectiveness in clearing areas for territorial gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
Воин DV posts video claiming destruction of enemy personnel in Novosiolovka, indicating intent to clear and secure territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claims).
Kotsnews claims RF forces are encircling Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity)
Strengthen Strategic Alliances & Bypass Sanctions: Continue high-level diplomatic engagements (e.g., China visit, joint naval patrol) and economic integration (Mir cards in Iran) to reinforce international partnerships and circumvent Western isolation efforts, potentially showcasing military alignment through joint naval patrols. Align with anti-Western sentiments globally (Iran's Ambassador's statement on Gaza). TASS reports Kazakhstan's oil transport, aiming to highlight stable economic ties with partners despite sanctions. TASS reports China's Foreign Ministry states it does not plan to send peacekeepers to Ukraine. RF diplomats preparing a request to Turkey regarding a missing Russian swimmer indicates an intention to engage in routine diplomatic processes even amidst conflict, projecting normalcy or asserting international presence.
UPDATES:
TASS posts on Israeli strikes on a Gaza hospital, which could be used to align with anti-Western sentiments globally. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video of "Russia returned children to the Motherland through the mediation of Qatar," demonstrating an intent to engage with non-Western partners (Qatar) on humanitarian issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Народная милиция ДНР posts video showing delivery of medical equipment, as part of humanitarian aid efforts, to project positive engagement in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kadyrov_95 posts a video on a tactical shooting championship, featuring participants from Russia and "friendly countries" (Kuwait, Bahrain), reinforcing international partnerships. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports Putin informed Pezeshkian (Iran) about US summit results. This is RF IO projecting diplomatic engagement with non-Western partners to strengthen alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad posts photo on "Russia and Nicaragua," projecting international alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
TASS reports search for swimmer in Turkey. While a domestic concern, it provides an opportunity for RF to engage in routine diplomatic processes. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Операция Z posts video of Hungarian Foreign Minister claiming EU decline, which aligns with RF efforts to highlight Western disunity and promote non-Western alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Divert Attention: Use external events (e.g., Israel-Yemen conflict, Gaza humanitarian situation, internal RF news like Duma proposals for tourism, Zemfira debt, Trump's media statements, search and rescue in Kyrgyzstan, power bank regulations, South Korea-Trump meeting, Medvedev tennis loss, new aviation fees, International Baccalaureate NGO, typhoon in Sanya, phishing links, bus AC) to distract from the conflict in Ukraine. Promote non-military cultural content (Kazakh children singing Russian hit, civilian life videos by "Два майора") to normalize the situation. Новости Москвы reports a new Sber app ("Assets Online") in the App Store, and that sex guides for dogs are banned in Russia, serving as domestic distractions. TASS reports Sber launched contactless payment for iPhone. Новости Москвы reports that temperatures up to +30°C may return to Moscow in the last days of summer. RBC-Ukraine reports the dollar and euro have risen against the hryvnia, a domestic economic issue that can distract. TASS drug lab report serves as a domestic distraction. Fighterbomber showcasing knives is a distraction. Mash на Донбассе video of fatal car crash and Новости Москвы tram video are for domestic consumption and distraction, promoting normalcy. TASS report on solar flare is a purely factual, but diverting, piece of information.
UPDATES:
TASS reports Polish President Karol Nawrocki vetoed a bill extending special status for Ukrainians, which while relevant to the conflict, is a diplomatic event that can also serve as a distraction from direct battlefield news. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Alex Parker Returns amplifies Crocus City Hall narratives, a significant domestic event that can serve as a distraction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports on Mikhail Degtyarev heading the TASS "For Loyalty" award jury, a domestic event used to fill information space and distract. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports on Israeli strikes on a Gaza hospital, a clear diversionary tactic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Legislation proposed in State Duma to transfer migrant health data to Interior Ministry. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) "Госключ" integrated into Max messenger. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE) Arrest on property of former Deputy Director of FGUP GVSU No.4 of RF MoD Smetanyuk for 143 million rubles, indicating a focus on internal corruption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the detention of a Kursk Oblast deputy governor for embezzlement, an internal news item that serves to distract from front-line failures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Новости Москвы reports on "welders leading the rating of highest-paid professions in Russia." This is a domestic news item that serves as a distraction from the war. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports on new regulations for salaries and working conditions in Russia starting Sept 1st. Domestic news item used to divert attention. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Vladikavkaz airport. Domestic news to divert attention. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Russian tourists stranded in Sanya, China due to typhoon. Domestic news to divert attention. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports court proceedings on Igor Talkov murder case delayed, a domestic news item used as distraction. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS posts video of Putin meeting Grigorenko, discussing combating fraud, serving as IO to distract. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports 15 million Russians used "Gosuslugi" for self-restriction on loans, an IO piece to distract. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
ASTRA reports on journalists killed in Israeli airstrike in Gaza, an RF IO attempt to divert attention. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
ASTRA posts VPN advertisement, which distracts from other conflict-related news by focusing on internal Russian issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for advertisement, MEDIUM for implied demand).
TASS reports search for swimmer in Turkey. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Север.Реалии reports on anti-abortion billboards in St. Petersburg. Domestic news, low military relevance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). PE teacher from Izhevsk sentenced for treason and sabotage, indicating RF internal security efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
TASS posts video of a robot walking a "robodog" in Moscow, a domestic distraction. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Новости Москвы posts video about an elderly woman stuck in a bathtub, another domestic distraction. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Новости Москвы reports on a severe hailstorm in St. Petersburg, a domestic distraction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
ТАСС provides information on RF Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov, used for domestic normalization. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
AV БогомаZ posts empty photo messages and text stating it cannot analyze images depicting historical exhibitions. This is potentially an attempt to introduce non-military content or obfuscate. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for content of message, LOW relevance).
Courses of Action:
MLCOA 1: Intensify Kharkiv Offensive with Multi-Directional Pressure, Enhanced EW, and Massed Glide Bomb/Artillery/Drone Support. RF will continue pressing Vovchansk and Lyptsi, using KABs and drones (Kharkiv threat, Chernihiv threat, Sumy threat moving to Poltava, Donetsk threat, Dnipropetrovsk threat, now including Pavlohradskyi district, and new threats in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, including a new group of UAVs in northern Chernihiv heading south, and two drones attacking Sumy this morning, with new KAB launches on Sumy). Expect continued localized advances near Konstantynivka and in the Lyman area. Ganchev's statement is a strong indicator of this intent. Pushilin's claims on Konstantynivka and Dobropillya are direct indicators. The complicated situation in Lyman (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) indicates RF intent to exploit tactical opportunities for advance.
UPDATES:
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims "Russian army advanced to the west of Kupyansk and in Udachne," directly supporting this COA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity.)
Басурин о главном claims a "Geran-2 pinpoint strike on hidden infrastructure" in Sloviansk, supporting this COA with precision strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, MEDIUM for capability, LOW for immediate veracity).
WarGonzo posts a video showing a drone launching an explosive, consistent with tactical support for ground offensives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage showing destruction of various UAF military targets, indicating continued ISR and strike support for ground operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, consistent with continued offensive actions in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RF UAV heading to Sumy. This aligns with continued multi-directional pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Sumy, confirming active RF strikes in support of this COA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages on Щурово, claiming an FPV drone strike on BAPON objects at the "Lipa" recreation base, consistent with tactical offensive actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for strike veracity/target).
Fighterbomber posts video of UMPK strikes on a "concentration area of Banderites, UAV control post, and material storage," supporting ground offensives by degrading UAF defenses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of strikes). Additional Fighterbomber video shows general explosions in a rural area, indicating ongoing military activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
ASTRA posts videos and photos of destruction in Kushuhum and Malokaterynivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, claiming it is from today's Russian shelling, indicating continued aggressive actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a ballistic missile threat from the northeast, indicating a higher level of threat to strategic depth. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ballistic missile threat from the south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Сливочный каприз posts photo showing "Konstantinovka - Alexandro-Shultino" as of 24.08.25, indicating continued positional pressure in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, indicating continued air threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Два майора posts video showing soldiers in Konstantinovka direction, explicitly linked to a motor rifle regiment. This indicates ongoing ground operations aligned with this COA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO)
НгП раZVедка reports high-precision strikes on 24 AFU targets, supporting this COA by degrading UAF defenses and logistical capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) posts photos of damage in Kharkiv, confirming the ongoing intensity of this offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kotsnews claims RF forces are encircling Konstantinovka, supporting this COA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity)
Воин DV posts video claiming destruction of enemy personnel in Novosiolovka, indicating continued offensive actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claims).
MLCOA 2: Sustain Multi-Axis Ground Pressure and Tactical Engagements on Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Southern Axes, Leveraging FPV Drones, Air-Launched Guided Munitions, and Precision Artillery for Targeted Strikes and Psychological Operations. RF will maintain assaults in Chasiv Yar and other sectors, using KABs (Donetsk) and precision artillery (Krasnoarmeysk). RF will likely attempt to regain ground lost in UAF counterattacks (Novomykhailivka, Pokrovsk area). Claims of FPV drone in Zaporizhzhia, 500 strikes on 13 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (including KABs on Kushuhumska Hromada), and renewed multi-day drone/artillery attacks on Sumy (and FPV drone/artillery attacks on Nikopol) indicate persistent pressure. Maintaining claimed fire control in Kherson (Karantynnyi Island) and committing to infrastructure repair (water supply) for a narrative of effective governance. Expect Saldo and other RF officials to continue to disseminate claims of UAF targeting civilian infrastructure/assets (e.g., ambulances) in Kherson to demonize Ukrainian actions. RF may continue to propagate claims of advances, such as the new claim in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast near Philiia and Novogeorgiyevka, regardless of veracity. Expect RF to continue fabricating and exaggerating UAF casualty figures, particularly for foreign mercenaries (Luhansk claim). Expect RF to continue to conduct strikes against UAF C2 and equipment (UAV control post destruction claim). RF will continue to engage UAF infantry, as claimed near Vovcha River. ISW maps confirm RF is advancing along the entire front and UAF success near Pokrovsk. RF may also utilize demining equipment (MT-10 "Stalker") to support advances or clear defensive areas, particularly in prepared defensive zones. Kotsnews video is an attempt to signal territorial gain in Dnipropetrovsk. Colonelcassad's claim of HQ destruction in Kramatorsk indicates continued focus on high-value targets. Воин DV and "Сливочный каприз" posts claiming territorial gains in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia indicate continued ground pressure and attempts to seize and declare new territory. Pushilin's claims on Konstantynivka and Dobropillya reinforce this. Colonelcassad and "Два майора" post photo and video claiming control over Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), reinforcing territorial claims. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims an RF strike on the HQ of the 42nd Brigade in Preobrazhenka, supporting efforts to degrade UAF command. TASS claims Southern Grouping of Forces destroyed a UAF ammunition depot in the Konstantynivka direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports RF forces struck gas infrastructure in Ukraine, near Dikanka (Poltava Oblast). Narodная милиция ДНР posts drone footage claiming the destruction of a UAF pickup truck near Novy Ekonomycheskoye. Два майора posts a video claiming the destruction of a building with UAF personnel in Burgunka, Kherson Oblast, using FABs. Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны claim "Liberation of Filiya" and Воин DV claim destruction of 3 UAF armored vehicles are new examples of such claims and actions.
UPDATES:
MoD Russia claims "Liberating Filiya: artillery support, drone strikes and river crossing" with video, a direct example of this COA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity of "liberation"). MoD Russia also claims "liberating Novogeorgiyevka in Dnepropetrovsk region." (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity of "liberation").
TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky claims UAF in Kamyshevakha are in a "fire bag" after Zaporizhzhia "liberation," consistent with tactical engagements and psychological operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
"Два майора" posts video of a homemade drone with explosives on "Zaporizhzhia Front," demonstrating continued tactical engagements with improvised munitions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for use of such drones, MEDIUM for the depicted combat scenario as recent).
Colonelcassad posts video titled "The finale of the 'blitzkrieg': UAF buried their myths near Novomykhailivka," indicating continued RF attempts to attack UAF defensive positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO framing, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat).
RF MoD claims "Zaporozhskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) was liberated," a clear example of claiming territorial gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
WarGonzo posts a drone video showing an explosive payload, indicative of continued tactical drone strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage showing destruction of various UAF military targets, which supports ground operations by degrading UAF defenses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian DRG activity in Kherson, which will be met with RF counter-efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity).
МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video of "caravan of high-tech donkeys," indicating logistical support for frontline operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for video, MEDIUM for "high-tech" interpretation, LOW for specific timeframe).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, consistent with maintaining pressure and attempting to gain ground. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
Colonelcassad posts video of soldiers requesting a quad bike, indicating localized efforts to enhance logistical and operational capabilities for ground engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages on Щурово, claiming an FPV drone strike on BAPON objects at the "Lipa" recreation base, contributing to tactical engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for strike veracity/target).
Fighterbomber posts video of UMPK strikes on a "concentration area of Banderites, UAV control post, and material storage," supporting tactical operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of strikes). Additional Fighterbomber video shows general explosions in a rural area, indicating ongoing military activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
ASTRA posts videos and photos of destruction in Kushuhum and Malokaterynivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, claiming it is from today's Russian shelling, demonstrating continued ground/artillery pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Сливочный каприз posts photo showing "Konstantinovka - Alexandro-Shultino" as of 24.08.25, indicating continued positional fighting in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity).
Два майора posts video of soldiers in a fortified position, identified with the 33rd Motor Rifle Berlin Don Cossack Regiment 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division in the Konstantinovka direction, indicating active ground engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO)
Mash на Донбассе reports on inspection of the "Seversky Donets-Donbas" water pipeline, indicating continued focus on critical infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
НгП раZVедка reports successful high-precision strikes on 24 AFU targets, supporting the degradation of UAF capabilities across these axes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
Воин DV posts video claiming destruction of enemy personnel in Novosiolovka, consistent with tactical engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claims).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts photo message showing financial support for artillerymen of the 42nd Separate Mechanized Brigade for quad bike fundraising, highlighting resource needs for frontline operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Kotsnews claims RF forces are encircling Konstantinovka, supporting this COA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity)
✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports "Black Swan" assault battalion (225th Separate Assault Regiment) destroyed a building in Oleksiyivka where enemy personnel were concentrated, with thermal drone footage showing explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
MLCOA 3: Intensify Information Operations Targeting Ukrainian Morale, Western Cohesion, Justifying RF Actions, and Diverting Attention. This will include exploiting alleged UAF strikes in RF territory, publishing cynical propaganda, highlighting successful RF air defense, claiming destruction of UAF equipment, portraying Ukraine as a European hegemon, exploiting diplomatic friction with allies (e.g., Polish veto, "Bandera ideology" claims), discrediting captured UAF personnel, narratives of RF military heroism, showcasing public support for military efforts, promoting cultural influence, and leveraging military ties with non-Western partners, and diverting attention to other global conflicts and domestic RF events. Expect RF to widely propagate claims of advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Philiia, Zaporizhzhia, Novogeorgiyevka).
UPDATES:
TASS reports Polish President Karol Nawrocki vetoed a bill extending special status for Ukrainians, a key development for RF IO to exploit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports on the Investigative Committee opening a case against a Ukrainian militant in Kursk, directly supporting RF's criminalization and justification narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Alex Parker Returns amplifies Crocus City Hall narratives, focusing on religious/ethnic angles, serving as divisive IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Басурин о главном claims a Geran-2 strike in Sloviansk, serving to project RF military effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video (described above) likely framed as RF IO, continuing efforts to demoralize and divide. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO). Video of mother of ten children, widow of "special operation" participant, appealing to Putin for help, used to humanize the cost of war for RF and garner sympathy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF civilian distress, LOW for UAF context).
TASS posts on Israeli strikes on a Gaza hospital, continuing to divert attention and align with anti-Western narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Legislation proposed in State Duma to transfer migrant health data to Interior Ministry. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) "Госключ" integrated into Max messenger. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE) Arrest on property of former Deputy Director of FGUP GVSU No.4 of RF MoD Smetanyuk for 143 million rubles, indicating a focus on internal corruption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the detention of a Kursk Oblast deputy governor for embezzlement, which RF will try to spin as internal accountability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
MoD Russia posts a video "Liberating Filiya," a major IO push for territorial gains and military success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). MoD Russia also claims "liberating Novogeorgiyevka in Dnepropetrovsk region," another IO push. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO)
Рыбарь posts "Bomb in an Icon" video, amplifying the narrative of Ukrainian sabotage in Crimea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO). Graphic regarding "Kyiv Flamingo" (rockets) identifies potential assembly locations, likely an IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claim).
Colonelcassad posts a graphic on Ukraine's public debt, continuing IO to highlight financial weakness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Photo of "Труха" and several black/blurry videos with "ТРУХА" watermark, likely IO material. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for actual content).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video of "Russia returned children to the Motherland through the mediation of Qatar," an IO piece to portray Russia as a humanitarian actor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Report from "Voenkory Russkoi Vesny" also claims USA is looking for a replacement for Zelensky. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky claims UAF in Kamyshevakha are in a "fire bag," amplifying RF claims of success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
"Два майора" posts video of a woman on a tank, likely a humanizing or morale-boosting IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Polish PM Tusk states Poland will not send troops to Ukraine after the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
TASS reports on Mikhail Degtyarev heading the TASS "For Loyalty" award jury, used for domestic normalization. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports the need to toughen punishment for disseminating Russians' personal data, indicating ongoing internal information control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Poland's President proposed stricter conditions for obtaining Polish citizenship, including denying it to those sympathizing with "Bandera ideology." This is a significant RF IO piece to amplify divisions between Poland and Ukraine and appeal to anti-Ukrainian sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Новости Москвы reports on "welders leading the rating of highest-paid professions in Russia," a domestic news item that supports the narrative of internal economic strength and normalcy. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Народная милиция ДНР posts video showing delivery of medical equipment, framed as humanitarian aid, to support narrative of positive engagement in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
TASS reports on new regulations for salaries and working conditions in Russia starting Sept 1st. Domestic news to show government functionality. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Vladikavkaz airport. Domestic news related to air travel, likely a weather-related or operational issue. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Russian tourists stranded in Sanya, China due to typhoon. Domestic news focusing on citizen welfare. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kadyrov_95 posts a video on a tactical shooting championship, showcasing military prowess and international ties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Janus Putkonen (Finnish pro-RF source) posts about Finnish President Stubb's statements "not spreading well," aiming to highlight perceived Western disunity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
"Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" rhetorical question (What else can the military do besides kill?) may be intended to provoke discussion or present a more complex image of military personnel. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Alex Parker Returns posts an image claiming a Russian student was fined for a meme with a swastika, an RF IO attempt to project strength in controlling extremism and to deter similar acts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Север.Реалии reports on bookstores warned about "foreign agent" books, indicating continued efforts to control information and narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). PE teacher from Izhevsk sentenced for treason and sabotage, indicating RF internal security efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
TASS reports court proceedings on Igor Talkov murder case delayed, a domestic news item used as distraction, while showing judicial system is functioning. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad posts about "people stealing" in Ukraine, an IO piece attempting to portray Ukraine negatively and highlight perceived instability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Photo of "Труха" and several black/blurry videos with "ТРУХА" watermark, likely IO material. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for actual content).
Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts that "Western dominance is ending, Ukraine conflict shifts balance," a clear RF IO piece promoting a narrative of global shift in power. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Басурин о главном posts a video "Dark shadow over 'Druzhba': Hungary in a trap of political blackmail," explicitly intending to sow discord between Ukraine and its allies and exploit energy security concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Воин DV states "Canada is seriously getting involved for Ukraine," intending to portray Western overreach and potential negative consequences for allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
ASTRA reports on journalists killed in Israeli airstrike in Gaza, an RF IO attempt to divert attention from Ukraine and align with anti-Western narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video with Zelenskyy discussing "Druzhba" pipeline strikes, an RF IO attempt to frame Ukrainian actions negatively regarding critical infrastructure and to highlight perceived Ukrainian leader's indifference. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO framing, MEDIUM for actual content).
РБК-Україна reports Polish President vetoed social assistance for Ukrainians, which RF will amplify to show diminishing Western support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Polish PM Tusk states Poland will not send troops to Ukraine after the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Zelenskyy announces US-Ukraine meeting for negotiations with Russia, which RF will likely try to frame to their advantage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Putin informed Pezeshkian (Iran) about US summit results. This is RF IO projecting diplomatic engagement with non-Western partners to counter Western efforts to isolate RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Рыбарь posts graphic "Диаспора подала голос," clearly IO attempting to highlight/frame diaspora communities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Graphic regarding "Kyiv Flamingo" (rockets) identifies potential assembly locations, likely an IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claim).
Военкор Котенок claims Poles "snapped at the Ukrainians today," likely referring to the Polish veto, reinforcing an RF IO narrative of diminishing support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
ASTRA posts video of Ukrainian MFA condemning Woody Allen's participation in Moscow Film Week. This is UAF counter-IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo of Woody Allen in Moscow, criticizing him. This is UAF counter-IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kit Kellogg makes statement about Russian casualties exceeding US WWII losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
TASS reports Polish President proposed equating "Bandera ideology" with fascism. This is a significant RF IO piece to amplify divisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Операция Z posts bar chart on Ukrainians losing trust in TCC (mobilization centers). This is RF IO exploiting internal Ukrainian challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO). Report from "Voenkory Russkoi Vesny" also claims USA is looking for a replacement for Zelensky. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
TASS reports Politconsultant Paul Manafort offered his services to Zaluzhny, who refused. This is an RF IO piece attempting to highlight perceived US influence on UAF leadership or internal divisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming Polish President will equate Bandera symbolism with Nazism and cut aid to Ukrainians. This is RF IO amplifying a real event and leveraging historical grievances to sow discord. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, HIGH for factual basis of statements).
Alex Parker Returns comments cynically on Adam Kadyrov receiving a medal. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS posts video of a robot walking a "robodog" in Moscow. This is domestic news serving as distraction and projecting technological advancement. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Новости Москвы posts video about an elderly woman stuck in a bathtub. This is domestic news serving as distraction/normalization. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Alex Parker Returns posts photo collage "The puzzle came together. This is who jinxed it," as a cynical/sarcastic IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Офіс Генерального прокурора reports illegal use of lands contaminated by Chornobyl accident. RF will attempt to exploit such internal Ukrainian issues to discredit the Ukrainian government. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts about military-themed patches, contributing to morale-boosting IO within the special forces community. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Два майора reports on Polish President's veto, amplifying narratives of weakening Western support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Polish PM Tusk states Poland will not send troops to Ukraine after the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Colonelcassad posts about Antonov production, intending to portray Ukrainian industrial decline. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO). Photo of "Труха" and several black/blurry videos with "ТРУХА" watermark, likely IO material. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for actual content).
Рыбарь posts "Political Ukrainianism," intending to undermine Ukrainian national identity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Операция Z posts video alleging corruption by Vitaliy Shabunin, directly targeting Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts as an RF IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for veracity). Report from "Voenkory Russkoi Vesny" also claims USA is looking for a replacement for Zelensky. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
ТАСС reports Polish digital minister's statement on Starlink, used to amplify the negative impact of the Polish veto on Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO)
ТАСС reports on the arrest request for blogger Markaryan, an internal security measure that RF can use to demonstrate control and deter criticism, serving as IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Два майора posts a video discussing geopolitical narratives, intending to justify Russian actions and criticize Western media, a clear IO effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO)
Kotsnews states "Western dominance is ending," intending to promote a narrative of shifting global power dynamics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO). Claims RF forces are encircling Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity)
НгП раZVедка reports successful high-precision strikes, contributing to RF IO by projecting military effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
Старше Эдды reports on the alleged "mined icon" plot, an RF IO piece designed to demonize Ukraine and justify internal security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for veracity).
Colonelcassad's cynical comment on Polish aid veto reinforces RF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Операция Z posts video of Hungarian Foreign Minister's comments on EU decline, amplifying anti-EU narratives and portraying Western disunity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
AV БогомаZ posts empty photo messages and text stating it cannot analyze images depicting historical exhibitions. This is potentially an attempt to introduce non-military content or obfuscate. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for content of message, LOW relevance).
Север.Реалии reports a PE teacher from Izhevsk was sentenced to 18 years for treason and preparing sabotage for the "Freedom of Russia" legion. This RF internal security narrative will be used to justify further crackdowns and demonize opposition. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Expand Territorial Control: Continue to press advances in Kharkiv (Vovchansk, Lyptsi) and Donetsk (Chasiv Yar, Konstantynivka). New claims of advancing in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF is also maintaining offensive pressure across the Zaporizhzhia axis. ISW maps confirm RF is advancing along the entire front. Ganchev's statement clearly indicates this intent. Kotsnews video claims Russian flag over Dnipropetrovsk, aiming to signal territorial gain. Pushilin's claims on Konstantynivka and Dobropillya clearly indicate this intent. Воин DV and "Сливочный каприз" posts about "liberating" or controlling areas in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia further reinforce this. Colonelcassad and "Два майора" post photo and video claiming control over Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), aiming to signal territorial gain. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims an RF strike on the HQ of the 42nd Brigade in Preobrazhenka, likely to demonstrate degradation of UAF command. Narodная милиция ДНР video indicates intent to target UAF equipment. Два майора video indicates intent to destroy UAF positions. Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны claim "Liberation of Filiya" and Воин DV claim destruction of 3 UAF armored vehicles are new examples of such claims and actions.
UPDATES:
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports "Russian army advanced to the west of Kupyansk and in Udachne," a direct statement of intent for territorial expansion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
MoD Russia claims "Liberating Filiya: artillery support, drone strikes and river crossing" with video, explicitly stating intent for territorial gain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). MoD Russia also claims "liberating Novogeorgiyevka in Dnepropetrovsk region," another explicit statement of intent for territorial gain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO)
TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky claims UAF in Kamyshevakha are in a "fire bag" after Zaporizhzhia "liberation," implying successful territorial control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
"Два майора" posts video of a homemade drone with explosives, indicating continued tactical efforts to achieve gains on the Zaporizhzhia front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RF MoD claims "Zaporozhskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) was liberated," a clear intent to claim territorial control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
WarGonzo posts a drone video showing an explosive payload, used in tactical engagements to support ground advances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage showing destruction of various UAF military targets, which supports ground operations by degrading UAF defenses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, indicating continued intent to clear and secure territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
Сливочный каприз posts photo showing "Konstantinovka - Alexandro-Shultino" as of 24.08.25, indicating intent to claim positional gains and maintain pressure in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity).
Два майора posts video showing soldiers in Konstantinovka direction, explicitly stating they are from a motor rifle regiment, indicating intent for ground control and consolidation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO)
НгП раZVедка reports successful operation against AFU targets, intending to project effectiveness in clearing areas for territorial gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
Воин DV posts video claiming destruction of enemy personnel in Novosiolovka, indicating intent to clear and secure territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claims).
Kotsnews claims RF forces are encircling Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity)
Strengthen Strategic Alliances & Bypass Sanctions: Continue high-level diplomatic engagements (e.g., China visit, joint naval patrol) and economic integration (Mir cards in Iran) to reinforce international partnerships and circumvent Western isolation efforts, potentially showcasing military alignment through joint naval patrols. Align with anti-Western sentiments globally (Iran's Ambassador's statement on Gaza). TASS reports Kazakhstan's oil transport, aiming to highlight stable economic ties with partners despite sanctions. TASS reports China's Foreign Ministry states it does not plan to send peacekeepers to Ukraine. RF diplomats preparing a request to Turkey regarding a missing Russian swimmer indicates an intention to engage in routine diplomatic processes even amidst conflict, projecting normalcy or asserting international presence.
UPDATES:
TASS posts on Israeli strikes on a Gaza hospital, which could be used to align with anti-Western sentiments globally. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video of "Russia returned children to the Motherland through the mediation of Qatar," demonstrating engagement with non-Western partners. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Народная милиция ДНР posts video showing delivery of medical equipment, as part of humanitarian aid efforts, to project positive engagement in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kadyrov_95 posts a video on a tactical shooting championship, featuring participants from Russia and "friendly countries" (Kuwait, Bahrain), reinforcing strategic partnerships. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports Putin informed Pezeshkian (Iran) about US summit results. This is RF IO projecting diplomatic engagement with non-Western partners to strengthen alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad posts photo on "Russia and Nicaragua," projecting international alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
TASS reports search for swimmer in Turkey. While a domestic concern, it provides an opportunity for RF to engage in routine diplomatic processes. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Операция Z posts video of Hungarian Foreign Minister claiming EU decline, which aligns with RF efforts to highlight Western disunity and promote non-Western alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Divert Attention: Use external events (e.g., Israel-Yemen conflict, Gaza humanitarian situation, internal RF news like Duma proposals for tourism, Zemfira debt, Trump's media statements, search and rescue in Kyrgyzstan, power bank regulations, South Korea-Trump meeting, Medvedev tennis loss, new aviation fees, International Baccalaureate NGO, typhoon in Sanya, phishing links, bus AC) to distract from the conflict in Ukraine. Promote non-military cultural content (Kazakh children singing Russian hit, civilian life videos by "Два майора") to normalize the situation. Новости Москвы reports a new Sber app ("Assets Online") in the App Store, and that sex guides for dogs are banned in Russia, serving as domestic distractions. TASS reports Sber launched contactless payment for iPhone. Новости Москвы reports that temperatures up to +30°C may return to Moscow in the last days of summer. RBC-Ukraine reports the dollar and euro have risen against the hryvnia, a domestic economic issue that can distract. TASS drug lab report serves as a domestic distraction. Fighterbomber showcasing knives is a distraction. Mash на Донбассе video of fatal car crash and Новости Москвы tram video are for domestic consumption and distraction, promoting normalcy. TASS report on solar flare is a purely factual, but diverting, piece of information.
UPDATES:
TASS reports Polish President Karol Nawrocki vetoed a bill extending special status for Ukrainians, which while relevant to the conflict, is a diplomatic event that can also serve as a distraction from direct battlefield news. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Alex Parker Returns amplifies Crocus City Hall narratives, a significant domestic event that can serve as a distraction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports on Mikhail Degtyarev heading the TASS "For Loyalty" award jury, a domestic event used to fill information space and distract. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports on Israeli strikes on a Gaza hospital, a clear diversionary tactic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Legislation proposed in State Duma to transfer migrant health data to Interior Ministry. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) "Госключ" integrated into Max messenger. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE) Arrest on property of former Deputy Director of FGUP GVSU No.4 of RF MoD Smetanyuk for 143 million rubles, indicating a focus on internal corruption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the detention of a Kursk Oblast deputy governor for embezzlement, an internal news item that serves to distract from front-line failures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Новости Москвы reports on "welders leading the rating of highest-paid professions in Russia." This is a domestic news item that serves as a distraction from the war. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports on new regulations for salaries and working conditions in Russia starting Sept 1st. Domestic news item used to divert attention. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Vladikavkaz airport. Domestic news to divert attention. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Russian tourists stranded in Sanya, China due to typhoon. Domestic news to divert attention. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports court proceedings on Igor Talkov murder case delayed, a domestic news item used as distraction. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS posts video of Putin meeting Grigorenko, discussing combating fraud, serving as IO to distract. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports 15 million Russians used "Gosuslugi" for self-restriction on loans, an IO piece to distract. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
ASTRA reports on journalists killed in Israeli airstrike in Gaza, an RF IO attempt to divert attention. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
ASTRA posts VPN advertisement, which distracts from other conflict-related news by focusing on internal Russian issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for advertisement, MEDIUM for implied demand).
TASS reports search for swimmer in Turkey. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Север.Реалии reports on anti-abortion billboards in St. Petersburg. Domestic news, low military relevance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). PE teacher from Izhevsk sentenced for treason and sabotage, indicating RF internal security efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
TASS posts video of a robot walking a "robodog" in Moscow, a domestic distraction. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Новости Москвы posts video about an elderly woman stuck in a bathtub, another domestic distraction. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Новости Москвы reports on a severe hailstorm in St. Petersburg, a domestic distraction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
ТАСС provides information on RF Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov, used for domestic normalization. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
AV БогомаZ posts empty photo messages and text stating it cannot analyze images depicting historical exhibitions. This is potentially an attempt to introduce non-military content or obfuscate. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for content of message, LOW relevance).
Courses of Action:
MLCOA 1: Intensify Kharkiv Offensive with Multi-Directional Pressure, Enhanced EW, and Massed Glide Bomb/Artillery/Drone Support. RF will continue pressing Vovchansk and Lyptsi, using KABs and drones (Kharkiv threat, Chernihiv threat, Sumy threat moving to Poltava, Donetsk threat, Dnipropetrovsk threat, now including Pavlohradskyi district, and new threats in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, including a new group of UAVs in northern Chernihiv heading south, and two drones attacking Sumy this morning, with new KAB launches on Sumy). Expect continued localized advances near Konstantynivka and in the Lyman area. Expect RF to continue claiming advances west of Kupiansk and in Udachne. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATES:
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims "Russian army advanced to the west of Kupyansk and in Udachne," directly supporting this COA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity.)
Басурин о главном claims a "Geran-2 pinpoint strike on hidden infrastructure" in Sloviansk, supporting this COA with precision strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, MEDIUM for capability, LOW for immediate veracity).
WarGonzo posts a video showing a drone launching an explosive, consistent with tactical support for ground offensives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage showing destruction of various UAF military targets, indicating continued ISR and strike support for ground operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, consistent with continued offensive actions in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RF UAV heading to Sumy. This aligns with continued multi-directional pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Sumy, confirming active RF strikes in support of this COA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages on Щурово, claiming an FPV drone strike on BAPON objects at the "Lipa" recreation base, consistent with tactical offensive actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for strike veracity/target).
Fighterbomber posts video of UMPK strikes on a "concentration area of Banderites, UAV control post, and material storage," supporting ground offensives by degrading UAF defenses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of strikes). Additional Fighterbomber video shows general explosions in a rural area, indicating ongoing military activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
ASTRA posts videos and photos of destruction in Kushuhum and Malokaterynivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, claiming it is from today's Russian shelling, indicating continued aggressive actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a ballistic missile threat from the northeast, indicating a higher level of threat to strategic depth. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ballistic missile threat from the south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Сливочный каприз posts photo showing "Konstantinovka - Alexandro-Shultino" as of 24.08.25, indicating continued positional pressure in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, indicating continued air threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Два майора posts video showing soldiers in Konstantinovka direction, explicitly linked to a motor rifle regiment. This indicates ongoing ground operations aligned with this COA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO)
НгП раZVедка reports high-precision strikes on 24 AFU targets, supporting this COA by degrading UAF defenses and logistical capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) posts photos of damage in Kharkiv, confirming the ongoing intensity of this offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kotsnews claims RF forces are encircling Konstantinovka, supporting this COA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity)
Воин DV posts video claiming destruction of enemy personnel in Novosiolovka, indicating continued offensive actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claims).
MLCOA 2: Sustain Multi-Axis Ground Pressure and Tactical Engagements on Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Southern Axes, Leveraging FPV Drones, Air-Launched Guided Munitions, and Precision Artillery for Targeted Strikes and Psychological Operations. RF will maintain assaults in Chasiv Yar and other sectors, using KABs and precision artillery. RF will likely attempt to regain ground lost in UAF counterattacks (Novomykhailivka, Pokrovsk area, Zelenyi Hai). Claims of FPV drone in Zaporizhzhia, 500 strikes on 13 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (including KABs on Kushuhumska Hromada), and renewed multi-day drone/artillery attacks on Sumy (and FPV drone/artillery attacks on Nikopol) indicate persistent pressure. Maintaining claimed fire control in Kherson (Karantynnyi Island) and committing to infrastructure repair (water supply) for a narrative of effective governance. Expect Saldo and other RF officials to continue to disseminate claims of UAF targeting civilian infrastructure/assets (e.g., ambulances) in Kherson to demonize Ukrainian actions. RF may continue to propagate claims of advances, such as the new claim in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast near Philiia and Novogeorgiyevka, regardless of veracity. Expect RF to continue fabricating and exaggerating UAF casualty figures, particularly for foreign mercenaries (Luhansk claim). Expect RF to continue to conduct strikes against UAF C2 and equipment (UAV control post destruction claim). RF will continue to engage UAF infantry, as claimed near Vovcha River. ISW maps confirm RF is advancing along the entire front and UAF success near Pokrovsk. RF may also utilize demining equipment (MT-10 "Stalker") to support advances or clear defensive areas, particularly in prepared defensive zones. Kotsnews video is an attempt to signal territorial gain in Dnipropetrovsk. Colonelcassad's claim of HQ destruction in Kramatorsk indicates continued focus on high-value targets. Воин DV and "Сливочный каприз" posts claiming territorial gains in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia indicate continued ground pressure and attempts to seize and declare new territory. Pushilin's claims on Konstantynivka and Dobropillya reinforce this. Colonelcassad and "Два майора" post photo and video claiming control over Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), reinforcing territorial claims. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims an RF strike on the HQ of the 42nd Brigade in Preobrazhenka, supporting efforts to degrade UAF command. TASS claims Southern Grouping of Forces destroyed a UAF ammunition depot in the Konstantynivka direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports RF forces struck gas infrastructure in Ukraine, near Dikanka (Poltava Oblast). Narodная милиция ДНР posts drone footage claiming the destruction of a UAF pickup truck near Novy Ekonomycheskoye. Два майора posts a video claiming the destruction of a building with UAF personnel in Burgunka, Kherson Oblast, using FABs. Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны claim "Liberation of Filiya" and Воин DV claim destruction of 3 UAF armored vehicles are new examples of such claims and actions.
UPDATES:
MoD Russia claims "Liberating Filiya: artillery support, drone strikes and river crossing" with video, a direct example of this COA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity of "liberation"). MoD Russia also claims "liberating Novogeorgiyevka in Dnepropetrovsk region." (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity of "liberation").
TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky claims UAF in Kamyshevakha are in a "fire bag" after Zaporizhzhia "liberation," consistent with tactical engagements and psychological operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
"Два майора" posts video of a homemade drone with explosives on "Zaporizhzhia Front," demonstrating continued tactical engagements with improvised munitions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for use of such drones, MEDIUM for the depicted combat scenario as recent).
Colonelcassad posts video titled "The finale of the 'blitzkrieg': UAF buried their myths near Novomykhailivka," indicating continued RF attempts to attack UAF defensive positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO framing, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat).
RF MoD claims "Zaporozhskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) was liberated," a clear example of claiming territorial gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
WarGonzo posts a drone video showing an explosive payload, indicative of continued tactical drone strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage showing destruction of various UAF military targets, which supports ground operations by degrading UAF defenses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian DRG activity in Kherson, which will be met with RF counter-efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity).
МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video of "caravan of high-tech donkeys," indicating logistical support for frontline operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for video, MEDIUM for "high-tech" interpretation, LOW for specific timeframe).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, consistent with maintaining pressure and attempting to gain ground. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
Colonelcassad posts video of soldiers requesting a quad bike, indicating localized efforts to enhance logistical and operational capabilities for ground engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages on Щурово, claiming an FPV drone strike on BAPON objects at the "Lipa" recreation base, contributing to tactical engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for strike veracity/target).
Fighterbomber posts video of UMPK strikes on a "concentration area of Banderites, UAV control post, and material storage," supporting tactical operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of strikes). Additional Fighterbomber video shows general explosions in a rural area, indicating ongoing military activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
ASTRA posts videos and photos of destruction in Kushuhum and Malokaterynivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, claiming it is from today's Russian shelling, demonstrating continued ground/artillery pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Сливочный каприз posts photo showing "Konstantinovka - Alexandro-Shultino" as of 24.08.25, indicating continued positional fighting in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity).
Два майора posts video of soldiers in a fortified position, identified with the 33rd Motor Rifle Berlin Don Cossack Regiment 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division in the Konstantinovka direction, indicating active ground engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO)
Mash на Донбассе reports on inspection of the "Seversky Donets-Donbas" water pipeline, indicating continued focus on critical infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
НгП раZVедка reports successful high-precision strikes on 24 AFU targets, supporting the degradation of UAF capabilities across these axes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
Воин DV posts video claiming destruction of enemy personnel in Novosiolovka, consistent with tactical engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claims).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts photo message showing financial support for artillerymen of the 42nd Separate Mechanized Brigade for quad bike fundraising, highlighting resource needs for frontline operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Kotsnews claims RF forces are encircling Konstantinovka, supporting this COA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity)
✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports "Black Swan" assault battalion (225th Separate Assault Regiment) destroyed a building in Oleksiyivka where enemy personnel were concentrated, with thermal drone footage showing explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
MLCOA 3: Intensify Information Operations Targeting Ukrainian Morale, Western Cohesion, Justifying RF Actions, and Diverting Attention. This will include exploiting alleged UAF strikes in RF territory, publishing cynical propaganda, highlighting successful RF air defense, claiming destruction of UAF equipment, portraying Ukraine as a European hegemon, exploiting diplomatic friction with allies (e.g., Polish veto, "Bandera ideology" claims), discrediting captured UAF personnel, narratives of RF military heroism, showcasing public support for military efforts, promoting cultural influence, and leveraging military ties with non-Western partners, and diverting attention to other global conflicts and domestic RF events. Expect RF to widely propagate claims of advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Philiia, Zaporizhzhia, Novogeorgiyevka).
UPDATES:
TASS reports Polish President Karol Nawrocki vetoed a bill extending special status for Ukrainians, a key development for RF IO to exploit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports on the Investigative Committee opening a case against a Ukrainian militant in Kursk, directly supporting RF's criminalization and justification narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Alex Parker Returns amplifies Crocus City Hall narratives, focusing on religious/ethnic angles, serving as divisive IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Басурин о главном claims a Geran-2 strike in Sloviansk, serving to project RF military effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video (described above) likely framed as RF IO, continuing efforts to demoralize and divide. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO). Video of mother of ten children, widow of "special operation" participant, appealing to Putin for help, used to humanize the cost of war for RF and garner sympathy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF civilian distress, LOW for UAF context).
TASS posts on Israeli strikes on a Gaza hospital, continuing to divert attention and align with anti-Western narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Legislation proposed in State Duma to transfer migrant health data to Interior Ministry. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) "Госключ" integrated into Max messenger. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE) Arrest on property of former Deputy Director of FGUP GVSU No.4 of RF MoD Smetanyuk for 143 million rubles, indicating a focus on internal corruption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the detention of a Kursk Oblast deputy governor for embezzlement, which RF will try to spin as internal accountability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
MoD Russia posts a video "Liberating Filiya," a major IO push for territorial gains and military success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). MoD Russia also claims "liberating Novogeorgiyevka in Dnepropetrovsk region," another IO push. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO)
Рыбарь posts "Bomb in an Icon" video, amplifying the narrative of Ukrainian sabotage in Crimea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO). Graphic regarding "Kyiv Flamingo" (rockets) identifies potential assembly locations, likely an IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claim).
Colonelcassad posts a graphic on Ukraine's public debt, continuing IO to highlight financial weakness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Photo of "Труха" and several black/blurry videos with "ТРУХА" watermark, likely IO material. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for actual content).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video of "Russia returned children to the Motherland through the mediation of Qatar," an IO piece to portray Russia as a humanitarian actor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Report from "Voenkory Russkoi Vesny" also claims USA is looking for a replacement for Zelensky. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky claims UAF in Kamyshevakha are in a "fire bag," amplifying RF claims of success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
"Два майора" posts video of a woman on a tank, likely a humanizing or morale-boosting IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Polish PM Tusk states Poland will not send troops to Ukraine after the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
TASS reports on Mikhail Degtyarev heading the TASS "For Loyalty" award jury, used for domestic normalization. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports the need to toughen punishment for disseminating Russians' personal data, indicating ongoing internal information control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Poland's President proposed stricter conditions for obtaining Polish citizenship, including denying it to those sympathizing with "Bandera ideology." This is a significant RF IO piece to amplify divisions between Poland and Ukraine and appeal to anti-Ukrainian sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Новости Москвы reports on "welders leading the rating of highest-paid professions in Russia," a domestic news item that supports the narrative of internal economic strength and normalcy. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Народная милиция ДНР posts video showing delivery of medical equipment, framed as humanitarian aid, to support narrative of positive engagement in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
TASS reports on new regulations for salaries and working conditions in Russia starting Sept 1st. Domestic news to show government functionality. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Vladikavkaz airport. Domestic news related to air travel, likely a weather-related or operational issue. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Russian tourists stranded in Sanya, China due to typhoon. Domestic news focusing on citizen welfare. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kadyrov_95 posts a video on a tactical shooting championship, showcasing military prowess and international ties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Janus Putkonen (Finnish pro-RF source) posts about Finnish President Stubb's statements "not spreading well," aiming to highlight perceived Western disunity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
"Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" rhetorical question (What else can the military do besides kill?) may be intended to provoke discussion or present a more complex image of military personnel. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Alex Parker Returns posts an image claiming a Russian student was fined for a meme with a swastika, an RF IO attempt to project strength in controlling extremism and to deter similar acts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Север.Реалии reports on bookstores warned about "foreign agent" books, indicating continued efforts to control information and narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). PE teacher from Izhevsk sentenced for treason and sabotage, indicating RF internal security efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
TASS reports court proceedings on Igor Talkov murder case delayed, a domestic news item used as distraction, while showing judicial system is functioning. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad posts about "people stealing" in Ukraine, an IO piece attempting to portray Ukraine negatively and highlight perceived instability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Photo of "Труха" and several black/blurry videos with "ТРУХА" watermark, likely IO material. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for actual content).
Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts that "Western dominance is ending, Ukraine conflict shifts balance," a clear RF IO piece promoting a narrative of global shift in power. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Басурин о главном posts a video "Dark shadow over 'Druzhba': Hungary in a trap of political blackmail," explicitly intending to sow discord between Ukraine and its allies and exploit energy security concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Воин DV states "Canada is seriously getting involved for Ukraine," intending to portray Western overreach and potential negative consequences for allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
ASTRA reports on journalists killed in Israeli airstrike in Gaza, an RF IO attempt to divert attention from Ukraine and align with anti-Western narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video with Zelenskyy discussing "Druzhba" pipeline strikes, an RF IO attempt to frame Ukrainian actions negatively regarding critical infrastructure and to highlight perceived Ukrainian leader's indifference. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO framing, MEDIUM for actual content).
РБК-Україна reports Polish President vetoed social assistance for Ukrainians, which RF will amplify to show diminishing Western support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Polish PM Tusk states Poland will not send troops to Ukraine after the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Zelenskyy announces US-Ukraine meeting for negotiations with Russia, which RF will likely try to frame to their advantage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Putin informed Pezeshkian (Iran) about US summit results. This is RF IO projecting diplomatic engagement with non-Western partners to counter Western efforts to isolate RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Рыбарь posts graphic "Диаспора подала голос," clearly IO attempting to highlight/frame diaspora communities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO). Graphic regarding "Kyiv Flamingo" (rockets) identifies potential assembly locations, likely an IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claim).
Военкор Котенок claims Poles "snapped at the Ukrainians today," likely referring to the Polish veto, reinforcing an RF IO narrative of diminishing support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
ASTRA posts video of Ukrainian MFA condemning Woody Allen's participation in Moscow Film Week. This is UAF counter-IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo of Woody Allen in Moscow, criticizing him. This is UAF counter-IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kit Kellogg makes statement about Russian casualties exceeding US WWII losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
TASS reports Polish President proposed equating "Bandera ideology" with fascism. This is a significant RF IO piece to amplify divisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Операция Z posts bar chart on Ukrainians losing trust in TCC (mobilization centers). This is RF IO exploiting internal Ukrainian challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO). Report from "Voenkory Russkoi Vesny" also claims USA is looking for a replacement for Zelensky. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
TASS reports Politconsultant Paul Manafort offered his services to Zaluzhny, who refused. This is an RF IO piece attempting to highlight perceived US influence on UAF leadership or internal divisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming Polish President will equate Bandera symbolism with Nazism and cut aid to Ukrainians. This is RF IO amplifying a real event and leveraging historical grievances to sow discord. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, HIGH for factual basis of statements).
Alex Parker Returns comments cynically on Adam Kadyrov receiving a medal. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS posts video of a robot walking a "robodog" in Moscow. This is domestic news serving as distraction and projecting technological advancement. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Новости Москвы posts video about an elderly woman stuck in a bathtub. This is domestic news serving as distraction/normalization. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Alex Parker Returns posts photo collage "The puzzle came together. This is who jinxed it," as a cynical/sarcastic IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Офіс Генерального прокурора reports illegal use of lands contaminated by Chornobyl accident. RF will attempt to exploit such internal Ukrainian issues to discredit the Ukrainian government. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts about military-themed patches, contributing to morale-boosting IO within the special forces community. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Два майора reports on Polish President's veto, amplifying narratives of weakening Western support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Polish PM Tusk states Poland will not send troops to Ukraine after the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Colonelcassad posts about Antonov production, intending to portray Ukrainian industrial decline. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO). Photo of "Труха" and several black/blurry videos with "ТРУХА" watermark, likely IO material. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for actual content).
Рыбарь posts "Political Ukrainianism," intending to undermine Ukrainian national identity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Операция Z posts video alleging corruption by Vitaliy Shabunin, directly targeting Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts as an RF IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for veracity). Report from "Voenkory Russkoi Vesny" also claims USA is looking for a replacement for Zelensky. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
ТАСС reports Polish digital minister's statement on Starlink, used to amplify the negative impact of the Polish veto on Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO)
ТАСС reports on the arrest request for blogger Markaryan, an internal security measure that RF can use to demonstrate control and deter criticism, serving as IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Два майора posts a video discussing geopolitical narratives, intending to justify Russian actions and criticize Western media, a clear IO effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO)
Kotsnews states "Western dominance is ending," intending to promote a narrative of shifting global power dynamics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO). Claims RF forces are encircling Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity)
НгП раZVедка reports successful high-precision strikes, contributing to RF IO by projecting military effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
Старше Эдды reports on the alleged "mined icon" plot, an RF IO piece designed to demonize Ukraine and justify internal security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for veracity).
Colonelcassad's cynical comment on Polish aid veto reinforces RF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Операция Z posts video of Hungarian Foreign Minister's comments on EU decline, amplifying anti-EU narratives and portraying Western disunity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
AV БогомаZ posts empty photo messages and text stating it cannot analyze images depicting historical exhibitions. This is potentially an attempt to introduce non-military content or obfuscate. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for content of message, LOW relevance).
Север.Реалии reports a PE teacher from Izhevsk was sentenced to 18 years for treason and preparing sabotage for the "Freedom of Russia" legion. This RF internal security narrative will be used to justify further crackdowns and demonize opposition. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
MLCOA 4: Prioritize Counter-ISR and Counter-UAV Measures, while Continuing Strategic Strikes and Tactical Air Support. RF will continue to attempt to degrade UAF drone capabilities and respond to UAF deep strikes with its own air and drone attacks, including active drone-on-drone combat and the declaration of air alert regimes in border regions/internal territories (including Moscow and Lipetsk, which has now been lifted). Expect continued use of ballistic missiles from the south (now east and south), although the current threat has been lifted. RF will also continue to promote the effectiveness of individual soldiers against UAV threats. Операция Z's claim about UAF Yak-52s attempts to highlight RF counter-UAV capabilities. Expect RF to continue to report high numbers of UAF UAVs shot down overnight, as per "Военкор Котенок" (23 UAVs). Colonelcassad reports 21 Ukrainian UAVs of aircraft type were intercepted and destroyed overnight. Expect further strikes on logistical complexes (Tatarstan) and gas infrastructure (Poltava). Expect Narodная милиция ДНР to report on successful targeting of UAF equipment. Sever.Realii reports 104 Shahed and imitator drones launched by RF.
UPDATES:
Басурин о главном claims a "Geran-2 pinpoint strike on hidden infrastructure" in Sloviansk, consistent with strategic strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, MEDIUM for capability).
"Два майора" posts video of a homemade drone with explosives, indicating continued use of drones for tactical strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
WarGonzo posts a drone video showing an explosive payload, indicative of continued tactical drone strikes and counter-ISR efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage showing destruction of various UAF military targets (including a 'Baba Yaga' drone), indicating continued counter-UAV efforts and ISR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Photo of "Труха" and several black/blurry videos with "ТРУХА" watermark, likely IO material. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for actual content).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, showcasing the effectiveness of RF forces against Ukrainian combatants. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RF UAV heading to Sumy. This aligns with continued strategic strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Sumy, confirming active RF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages on Щурово, claiming an FPV drone strike on BAPON objects. This shows continued counter-UAV/ISR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for strike veracity/target).
Fighterbomber posts video of UMPK strikes on a "UAV control post," demonstrating direct counter-UAV operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of strikes). Additional Fighterbomber video shows general explosions in a rural area, indicating ongoing military activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a ballistic missile threat from the northeast, indicating continued strategic strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ballistic missile threat from the south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, indicating continued air threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
РБК-Україна reports "🚀ПС: Швидкісна ціль на Сумщині" (Air Force: High-speed target in Sumy Oblast), confirming active RF air threats and UAF ISR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
НгП раZVедка reports high-precision strikes on 24 AFU targets, specifically mentioning UAV warehouses, indicating a focus on counter-UAV measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
MLCOA 5: Scale Up "Shahed" Drone Production and Deployment for Strategic Strikes. The continuing widespread drone activity, particularly the sustained multi-day attack on Sumy and new threats in Dnipropetrovsk and new alerts for Chernihiv and Sumy (including a new group of UAVs in northern Chernihiv heading south, and two drones attacking Sumy this morning, with new KAB launches on Sumy and Donetsk). FPV drone attacks on Nikopol also demonstrate this. New reports confirm 104 Shahed and imitator UAVs were launched overnight. Expect continued KAB launches on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. Expect Два майора to report on destruction of UAF positions using FABs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATES:
Басурин о главном claims a "Geran-2 pinpoint strike on hidden infrastructure" in Sloviansk, indicating continued use of attack drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, MEDIUM for capability).
"Два майора" posts video of a homemade drone with explosives, demonstrating continued improvised drone use. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
WarGonzo posts a drone video showing an explosive payload, indicative of continued tactical drone strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage showing destruction of various UAF military targets, which may include FPV drone capabilities against ground targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Photo of "Труха" and several black/blurry videos with "ТРУХА" watermark, likely IO material. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for actual content).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, consistent with using combined arms (implied) in offensive operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RF UAV heading to Sumy, indicating continued drone deployment for strategic strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Sumy, confirming active RF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages on Щурово, claiming an FPV drone strike on BAPON objects. This demonstrates continued FPV drone deployment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for strike veracity/target).
Fighterbomber posts video of UMPK strikes on a "UAV control post," supporting strategic strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of strikes). Additional Fighterbomber video shows general explosions in a rural area, indicating ongoing military activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
ASTRA posts videos and photos of destruction in Kushuhum and Malokaterynivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, from Russian shelling, consistent with strategic strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a ballistic missile threat from the northeast, indicating continued use of strategic assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ballistic missile threat from the south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, indicating continued drone/missile threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
MLCOA 6: Continue High-Level Diplomatic and Economic Engagement with Non-Western Allies to Reinforce Strategic Partnerships and Supplement Logistical Needs. RF will continue to utilize high-level diplomatic visits and economic initiatives with strategic partners like China and Iran (Mir cards) to bolster its international position and circumvent Western isolation efforts, potentially showcasing military alignment through joint naval patrols. RF will likely seek to leverage existing or manufactured diplomatic friction within the West. Expect RF to highlight stable economic relations with partners, as exemplified by Kazakhstan's oil transport. Expect China to maintain its current stance of not sending peacekeepers to Ukraine, which RF can spin as supporting its non-intervention narrative. RF diplomats preparing a request to Turkey regarding a missing Russian swimmer indicates continued engagement on routine diplomatic matters.
UPDATES:
TASS posts on Israeli strikes on a Gaza hospital, which could be used to align with anti-Western sentiments globally. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video of "Russia returned children to the Motherland through the mediation of Qatar," demonstrating engagement with non-Western partners. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Народная милиция ДНР posts video showing delivery of medical equipment, as part of humanitarian aid efforts, to project positive engagement in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kadyrov_95 posts a video on a tactical shooting championship, featuring participants from Russia and "friendly countries" (Kuwait, Bahrain), reinforcing strategic partnerships. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports Putin informed Pezeshkian (Iran) about US summit results. This is RF IO projecting diplomatic engagement with non-Western partners to strengthen alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad posts photo on "Russia and Nicaragua," projecting international alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
TASS reports search for swimmer in Turkey. While a domestic concern, it provides an opportunity for RF to engage in routine diplomatic processes. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Операция Z posts video of Hungarian Foreign Minister claiming EU decline, which aligns with RF efforts to highlight Western disunity and promote non-Western alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
MLCOA 7: Maintain Internal Security and Recruitment to Counter Domestic Threats. RF will continue to address internal security incidents and conduct recruitment drives to maintain internal stability and security. RF may also implement legislative responses to internal security/safety. RF will also continue efforts to control internal information. Expect RF to continue internal security measures and potentially purges, as indicated by the detention of Vladimir Bazarov. Expect RF to continue to propagate narratives of Ukrainian sabotage plots to justify internal security measures.
UPDATES:
TASS reports on the Investigative Committee opening a case against a Ukrainian militant in Kursk, reflecting internal security priorities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the detention of a Kursk Oblast deputy governor for embezzlement of fortifications funds, directly reflecting internal security and anti-corruption efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Рыбарь posts "Bomb in an Icon" video, reflecting internal security efforts and their associated IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO). Graphic regarding "Kyiv Flamingo" (rockets) identifies potential assembly locations, likely an IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claim).
TASS reports the need to toughen punishment for disseminating Russians' personal data, reflecting ongoing internal information control and security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Legislation proposed in State Duma to transfer migrant health data to Interior Ministry. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) "Госключ" integrated into Max messenger. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE) Arrest on property of former Deputy Director of FGUP GVSU No.4 of RF MoD Smetanyuk for 143 million rubles, indicating a focus on internal corruption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Новости Москвы reports on "welders leading the rating of highest-paid professions in Russia," a domestic news item that supports the narrative of internal economic strength and normalcy, potentially encouraging skilled labor. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports on new regulations for salaries and working conditions in Russia starting Sept 1st. Domestic news to show government functionality and maintain internal stability. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Vladikavkaz airport. Domestic news related to air travel, likely a weather-related or operational issue. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Russian tourists stranded in Sanya, China due to typhoon. Domestic news focusing on citizen welfare. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kadyrov_95 posts a video on a tactical shooting championship, showcasing military prowess and training, which contributes to internal security and professionalization of forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Alex Parker Returns posts an image claiming a Russian student was fined for a meme with a swastika, consistent with internal security efforts to control extremist content. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Север.Реалии reports on bookstores warned about "foreign agent" books, consistent with internal security efforts to control information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). PE teacher from Izhevsk sentenced for treason and sabotage, indicating RF internal security efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
TASS posts video of Putin meeting Grigorenko, discussing combating fraud, showing leadership's focus on internal stability. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports 15 million Russians used "Gosuslugi" for self-restriction on loans, reflecting efforts to manage internal financial security. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video of "caravan of high-tech donkeys," which, while showing improvisation, contributes to the narrative of sustained effort in the face of challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for video, MEDIUM for "high-tech" interpretation, LOW for specific timeframe).
TASS posts video of Putin meeting Grigorenko, discussing anti-fraud measures and AI. This is RF IO demonstrating governmental functionality and concern for citizens. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Север.Реалии reports on anti-abortion billboards in St. Petersburg, reflecting internal social policies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
ASTRA and TASS report Adam Kadyrov received a medal. This is RF IO for internal morale boosting and dynastic projection. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Новости Москвы posts video about an elderly woman stuck in a bathtub, promoting normalcy and public service. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
"Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" posts video of Russian/Chechen soldiers in a snowy environment, projecting combat effectiveness and morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO/combat footage).
РБК-Україна reports Lithuanian intelligence assesses 30,000 RF and Belarusian troops will participate in "Zapad-2025" exercises. This highlights potential for large-scale military exercises, contributing to internal security projection. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Офіс Генерального прокурора reports illegal use of lands contaminated by Chornobyl accident. RF will exploit such internal Ukrainian issues as a distraction, or to highlight internal governance failures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
ТАСС reports on the arrest request for blogger Markaryan, demonstrating an active internal security response to perceived threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
AV БогомаZ posts empty photo messages and text stating it cannot analyze images depicting historical exhibitions. This is potentially an attempt to introduce non-military content or obfuscate. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for content of message, LOW relevance).
MLCOA 8: Increase Naval Mine Deployment in Black Sea. RF will likely continue to deploy naval mines in the Black Sea, particularly near Ukrainian coastal areas, to impede maritime traffic and threaten Ukrainian ports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
MDCOA 1: Operational Breakthrough in Kharkiv, Targeting Major Ukrainian Logistical Hubs or Encirclement of UAF Elements, Combined with Mass Mobilization. A successful link-up between the Vovchansk and Lyptsi axes could lead to the encirclement of forward Ukrainian units, establish a significant salient south of the international border, and threaten major logistical hubs. This would be supported by increased use of MLRS, tactical glide bombs, and drone swarms, and potentially by the active deployment of demining equipment (MT-10 "Stalker") to breach UAF defenses. This could also involve the increased use of special forces in river crossing operations, as claimed by Воин DV.
Reasoning: The confirmed new axis of advance and high intensity of attacks in Kharkiv present the immediate conditions. The widespread drone threats across multiple oblasts indicate a potential for coordinated multi-domain pressure. The showcase of heavy demining equipment further indicates capability to overcome prepared defenses. The Воин DV claim, even if exaggerated, points to special forces capabilities for targeted ground engagements. Ganchev's explicit statement about liberating Kharkiv before a ceasefire elevates the perceived intent for a decisive breakthrough. The new RF claims on Konstantynivka and Dobropillya, and milbloggers claims on Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk) and Великая Новосёлка - Запорожское, and now also from Colonelcassad/"Два майора," indicate strong and vocal intent for territorial gains which could coalesce into an operational breakthrough. Bad weather warnings (Kharkiv Oblast) may complicate but not prevent this COA; RF may attempt to exploit reduced visibility or ground conditions if UAF is unprepared. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports further indicate the ongoing operational intensity. The most recent claims from Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны regarding "Liberation of Filiya" and Воин DV regarding destruction of UAF vehicles, if verified, would indicate a high pace of RF operations. The complicated situation in Lyman (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) indicates a potential for RF to press a breakthrough.
UPDATES:
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims "Russian army advanced to the west of Kupyansk and in Udachne," which, if true, indicates efforts to create multiple breakthroughs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity.)
MoD Russia claims "Liberating Filiya: artillery support, drone strikes and river crossing" with video. While focused on Dnipropetrovsk, a successful advance there could contribute to an operational breakthrough on a larger front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity of "liberation"). MoD Russia also claims "liberating Novogeorgiyevka in Dnepropetrovsk region," which could contribute to a larger breakthrough. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO)
TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky claims UAF in Kamyshevakha are in a "fire bag" after Zaporizhzhia "liberation," indicating potential for encirclement in other areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
RF MoD claims "Zaporozhskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) was liberated," contributing to this narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
WarGonzo posts a drone video showing an explosive payload, indicative of tactical support for ground breakthroughs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage showing destruction of various UAF military targets, which would enable ground breakthroughs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, directly supporting the potential for a breakthrough. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RF UAV heading to Sumy, indicating continued multi-directional pressure, aligning with this MDCOA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Sumy, confirming active RF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Fighterbomber posts video of UMPK strikes, which directly support potential breakthroughs by clearing UAF defenses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of strikes). Additional Fighterbomber video shows general explosions in a rural area, indicating ongoing military activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a ballistic missile threat from the northeast. While the threat is primarily to deep targets, a significant ballistic strike can soften defenses for a ground breakthrough. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ballistic missile threat from the south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Два майора posts video showing soldiers in Konstantinovka direction, indicating a sustained effort at a potential breakthrough. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO)
НгП раZVедка reports high-precision strikes on 24 AFU targets, supporting degradation of UAF defenses prior to a breakthrough. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
Воин DV posts video claiming destruction of enemy personnel in Novosiolovka, indicating ongoing efforts to clear and seize territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claims).
Kotsnews claims RF forces are encircling Konstantinovka, directly supporting this MDCOA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity)
MDCOA 2: Sustained High-Volume, Precision Strikes Against Critical UAF Command & Control (C2) Nodes, Key Air Defense Assets, and Full-Scale Attacks on Multiple Nuclear Power Plants, Preceding a Major Air Offensive. RF may commit significant resources to degrade UAF's ability to coordinate and defend, potentially using a higher volume of ballistic and hypersonic missiles and full-scale attacks on NPPs or other highly sensitive civilian infrastructure.
Reasoning: Demonstrated RF deep strike capabilities, the critical role of C2/air defense, and the stated intent for increased drone production create conditions for this. The claims of destroying UAF UAV control posts and the HQ of the 42nd Brigade reinforce this intention. The use of 104 UAVs overnight demonstrates capability for high-volume attacks. Colonelcassad's claim of HQ destruction in Kramatorsk indicates continued focus on high-value targets. Recent strikes on the Tatarstan logistical complex and Poltava gas infrastructure demonstrate RF's capability and intent to hit critical infrastructure far from the front. The new ballistic missile threat from the East and South further highlights this capability.
UPDATES:
Басурин о главном claims a "Geran-2 pinpoint strike on hidden infrastructure" in Sloviansk, consistent with a strategy of precision strikes against critical infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, MEDIUM for capability, LOW for immediate veracity).
Alex Parker Returns posts video of "Novoshakhtinsky Oil Refinery continuing to burn for the fifth consecutive day," while on RF territory, this demonstrates the vulnerability of energy infrastructure to deep strikes, which UAF can also exploit and RF will likely attempt to counter. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for fire and duration, MEDIUM for precise location).
РБК-Україна reports destruction in Pishchane, Sumy Oblast, from an RF attack. This highlights the vulnerability of civilian infrastructure to RF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage showing destruction of various UAF military targets, including communications equipment, which supports targeting C2 nodes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Photo of "Труха" and several black/blurry videos with "ТРУХА" watermark, likely IO material. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for actual content).
Zelenskyy states Russia is attempting to disrupt winter preparations through energy infrastructure strikes, which aligns with this MDCOA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RF UAV heading to Sumy. This aligns with continued strategic strikes against critical infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Sumy, confirming active RF strikes on critical infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Fighterbomber posts video of UMPK strikes on a "UAV control post," directly supporting this MDCOA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of strikes). Additional Fighterbomber video shows general explosions in a rural area, indicating ongoing military activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
ASTRA posts videos and photos of destruction in Kushuhum and Malokaterynivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, from Russian shelling, consistent with high-volume strikes against civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a ballistic missile threat from the northeast, indicating immediate threat of high-volume precision strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ballistic missile threat from the south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, indicating continued targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
НгП раZVедка reports successful high-precision strikes on 24 AFU targets, including UAV warehouses, indicating a focus on degrading UAF C2 and air assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
MDCOA 3: Escalated Covert Operations and Hybrid Tactics Targeting Critical Infrastructure within NATO Member States or Ukraine, Accompanied by Intense False-Flag Disinformation Campaigns, or State-Sponsored Terrorism, to Deter Western Support. RF may increase sabotage efforts against energy, transportation, and telecommunications infrastructure, within Ukraine and potentially in border regions of NATO member states, coupled with aggressive disinformation and attempts to sow discord among allies. This is especially pertinent given RF's attempts to exploit diplomatic rifts (Hungary, Poland), its continued focus on "energy security" narratives, and the new claims of negotiations (Moskalova). The Moscow explosion and UAV attacks on Moscow and Smolensk, whether an internal incident or not, highlight the vulnerability of domestic infrastructure and could serve as a pretext for RF escalation or accusations. TASS claims of civilian injury in Belgorod from UAF shelling, and the alleged Crimea sabotage plot by the SBU, may be used as pretexts for such escalation. Naval mines near Odesa also present a hybrid threat. The TASS report on Kuznetsov's alleged continued sabotage activities for SBU further fuels this narrative.
Reasoning: RF's history of hybrid warfare, its continued use of false-flag narratives (Belgorod/Moscow/Smolensk/Bryansk/other RF regions claims, Starshaya Eddy's post), the exploitation of diplomatic friction, and new claims of negotiations make this a viable escalation path, potentially leveraging the "energy security" narrative. The Moscow explosion and UAV attacks add another layer of complexity to internal and external threats, potentially used as justification for "retaliatory" measures. RF's internal crackdown, as exemplified by the detention of Bazarov, and rhetoric like "Два майора" on migratory policy, may increase internal pressure leading to more aggressive external actions. The most recent claims of UAF shelling civilians and sabotage plots by Ukrainian special services reinforce this MDCOA. The naval mines near Odesa are a clear example of hybrid tactics affecting critical infrastructure/shipping. The TASS Prozorov claim further supports this MDCOA. The TASS "neo-Nazi" claim and Старше Эдды's advocacy for politically-motivated legal action also contribute to a climate that could justify such operations.
UPDATES:
TASS reports Polish President Karol Nawrocki vetoed a bill extending special status for Ukrainians, which RF can exploit to portray Western disunity and justify more aggressive actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports the Investigative Committee opened a case against a Ukrainian militant in Kursk Oblast, framing Ukrainian actions as terrorism, which could serve as a pretext for "retaliatory" hybrid attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Alex Parker Returns amplifies Crocus City Hall narratives, a significant domestic security event that could be used to justify heightened internal security or external action. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video featuring a man recounting alleged mistreatment, beatings, and eventual execution by "Dudka" and "Batrak" after being captured in Ukraine, followed by claims of his own mistreatment by Ukrainian authorities for PTSD. This is likely an RF IO piece aiming to demoralize UAF and portray internal brutality. This type of narrative could be used to justify extreme measures or hybrid operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for veracity).
Рыбарь posts "Bomb in an Icon" video, amplifying the narrative of Ukrainian sabotage in Crimea, directly supporting this MDCOA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO). Graphic regarding "Kyiv Flamingo" (rockets) identifies potential assembly locations, likely an IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity of claim).
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the detention of a Kursk Oblast deputy governor for embezzlement related to fortifications, highlighting internal vulnerabilities that could be exploited by covert actors or serve as a narrative for RF's own internal security focus. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Poland's President proposed stricter conditions for obtaining Polish citizenship, including denying it to those sympathizing with "Bandera ideology." This RF IO piece aligns with hybrid tactics to sow discord. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
"Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a video claiming UAF DRG entered Russian rear in Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, indicating UAF's own capability for covert ops, which RF will interpret as justification for escalating its hybrid tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF IO, LOW for immediate verification).
Басурин о главном posts the same "Bomb in an Icon" video as Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны, reinforcing the narrative of Ukrainian sabotage and justifying RF internal security measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian DRG activity in Kherson. Such activity, if verified by RF, could be used as a pretext for escalated covert operations or false-flag attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity).
Басурин о главном posts a video "Dark shadow over 'Druzhba': Hungary in a trap of political blackmail," directly attempting to use hybrid tactics to destabilize relations and apply pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering criminal influence in Odesa. RF will attempt to exploit such internal security issues in Ukraine to justify its own actions or escalate hybrid tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Politconsultant Paul Manafort offered his services to Zaluzhny, who refused. This RF IO could be leveraged to suggest external influence and instability, potentially contributing to narratives used to justify hybrid operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming Polish President will equate Bandera symbolism with Nazism and cut aid to Ukrainians. This amplified narrative directly seeks to destabilize political relations and can be a precursor to increased hybrid activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO
