OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: Russian Federation (RF) forces maintain multi-domain pressure across the front, with continued ground assaults in Kharkiv and Donetsk. RF persists with claims of "liberation" in Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) and elements entering Konstantynivka (DNR). UAF sources continue to contradict RF claims regarding Dnipropetrovsk and maintain defensive posture. Tactical counterattacks in Donetsk, including confirmed recapture of Novomykhailivka and pushing back enemy in Zelenyi Hai, demonstrate UAF's ability to contest ground. RF milbloggers are publishing daily summaries with civilian-focused videos, attempting to normalize the conflict and fundraising for military units. RF is also showcasing heavy demining equipment. UAF deep strikes against RF logistical and energy infrastructure continue. International support for Ukraine remains strong, highlighted by new aid commitments and firm statements on territorial integrity. Recent incidents include widespread power outages in Sumy Oblast due to drone attacks and new reports of ballistic missile threats. Reports indicate RF used 104 Shahed and imitator UAVs overnight, with 76 reportedly downed or suppressed by UAF air defenses. UAF has revealed a new "Long Neptune" missile with a reported range of up to 1000 km. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade reports repelling 35 enemy attacks and inflicting significant losses on the Pokrovsk direction. Sea mines have again been spotted near Odesa's coast.
UPDATES:
RF claims of advances west of Kupiansk and in Udachne. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity.)
MoD Russia claims "Liberating Filiya: artillery support, drone strikes and river crossing" with video of combat in a rural settlement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity of "liberation").
TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky, advisor to the DPR head, claims that with the "liberation" of Zaporizhzhia, UAF forces in Kamyshevakha are in a "fire bag." (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity).
RF MoD claims "Zaporozhskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) was liberated." (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity.)
RBC-Ukraine reports a street in Pishchane, Sumy Oblast, is "almost completely destroyed" due to an RF attack. Video shows burning building and scattered debris. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
STERNENKO (UAF) posts video of a "Phoenix UAV unit" operation in the Pokrovsk direction, indicating continued UAF drone activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage with RF MoD logo and "Rubikon" emblem, showing destruction of various UAF military targets (trucks, APCs, 'Baba Yaga' drone, comms equipment, strongpoint). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of destruction of UAF equipment, LOW for specific context/timeframe.)
Zelenskyy states Russia is attempting to disrupt winter preparations through energy infrastructure strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian DRG (sabotage and reconnaissance group) activity on a post deep in occupied Kherson region, resulting in two RF servicemen killed (200). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity).
МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video of "caravan of high-tech donkeys at the front on the fourth year of war," indicating logistical improvisation by RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for video, MEDIUM for "high-tech" interpretation, LOW for specific timeframe).
Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk Regional State Administration announces a new MRI scanner in operation, highlighting efforts to improve civilian medical infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Zelenskyy and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre meet in Kyiv, discussing military aid and security cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts about awarding servicemen in the 58th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade for professionalism and courage, indicating morale-boosting activities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
РБК-Україна reports Polish President vetoed bill extending social assistance to Ukrainians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
Colonelcassad posts video of two soldiers in DNR requesting a "large capacity quad bike," indicating specific equipment needs and localized fundraising efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
RBC-Ukraine reports that tomorrow (26 AUG 25) will be the coldest day in Kyiv in a long time. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
No other new weather or environmental updates specifically affecting the immediate operational picture beyond previous reports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
RF:
Offensive Pressure (Kharkiv & Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia): Continued multi-axis ground pressure in Kharkiv (Vovchansk, Lyptsi) and Donetsk (Chasiv Yar, Konstantynivka) with significant air support (glide bombs) and EW capabilities (Shipovnik-Aero). Massed drone attacks (Sumy), and widespread air threats (Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk) indicate continued efforts to degrade UAF defenses and infrastructure. Renewed UAV/artillery attacks on Sumy city, leading to power outages, and RF claims of targeting UAF artillery/transport in Sumy area. Claims of first FPV drone in Zaporizhzhia. Fire control claimed over Karantynnyi Island, Kherson. New claim of active advance in Philiia, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, now with MoD Russia video. RF also conducted 500 strikes on 13 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including KAB strikes on Kushuhumska Hromada. Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk was attacked by FPV drones and artillery. ISW maps confirm RF offensive across the entire front. UAF General Staff indicates "enemy did not conduct offensive actions" in the Dnipro direction, contradicting RF claims for Philiia. WarGonzo reports on the Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv fronts. TASS reports Pushilin claims RF groups are entering the outskirts of Konstantynivka in DNR and control the situation near Dobropillya. Воин DV claims "liberation" of Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) with video of thermal drone strike, and "Сливочный каприз" posts photos and video suggesting control in Великая Новосёлка - Запорожское. Colonelcassad and "Два майора" post photo and video claiming control over Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims an RF strike on the HQ of the 42nd Brigade in Preobrazhenka on the Dnipropetrovsk direction. TASS claims Southern Grouping of Forces destroyed a UAF ammunition depot in the Konstantynivka direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports RF forces struck gas infrastructure in Ukraine, near Dikanka (Poltava Oblast). Kotsnews posts a video with soldiers discussing fighting on the Dnipropetrovsk front, claiming difficulties in clearing areas and use of drones/artillery, with footage of explosions and a Russian flag on a damaged structure. Народная милиция ДНР posts drone footage claiming the destruction of a UAF pickup truck near Novy Ekonomycheskoye. Два майора posts a video claiming the destruction of a building with UAF personnel in Burgunka, Kherson Oblast, using FABs. Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны also claim "liberation" of Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast).
UPDATES:
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports "Russian army advanced to the west of Kupyansk and in Udachne." (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity.)
Басурин о главном claims a "Geran-2 pinpoint strike on hidden infrastructure" in Sloviansk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, MEDIUM for capability, LOW for immediate veracity).
MoD Russia claims "Liberating Filiya: artillery support, drone strikes and river crossing" with video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity of "liberation").
TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky claims that with the "liberation" of Zaporizhzhia, UAF forces in Kamyshevakha are in a "fire bag." (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity).
"Два майора" posts video from "Zaporizhzhia Front" showing a homemade drone with explosives, indicating continued use of improvised methods. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for use of such drones, MEDIUM for the depicted combat scenario as recent).
RF MoD claims "Zaporozhskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) was liberated." (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity.)
WarGonzo posts a video captioned "Xoxol, you yourself see what is happening at the front...", showing a drone launching an explosive payload. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO, MEDIUM for drone capabilities shown).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage with RF MoD logo and "Rubikon" emblem, showing destruction of various UAF military targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF combat footage/IO, MEDIUM for depicted destruction of UAF equipment).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
Logistical Support: Colonelcassad posts a video depicting the delivery of "humanitarian aid" (camouflage nets and other supplies) to "stormtroopers of the Sever brigade" via a public organization. TASS reports on a critical humanitarian and logistical situation near Kakhovka. Saldo discussing plans to restore water supply to Kherson by November. Colonelcassad also showcases a heavy demining vehicle, the MT-10 "Stalker." Colonelcassad posts a video fundraising for the "Summer Campaign 2025". Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo claiming that after attacks on the "Druzhba" oil pipeline, Ukraine may lose Slovak diesel. Басурин о главном posts a video showing military personnel inside what appears to be an armored vehicle marked with both Russian and American flags, discussing vehicle operations, possibly as a propaganda or psychological operation.
UPDATES:
Alex Parker Returns posts video of "Novoshakhtinsky Oil Refinery continuing to burn for the fifth consecutive day," indicating sustained damage to RF logistical infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for fire and duration, MEDIUM for precise location).
Народная милиция ДНР posts video showing delivery of medical equipment to a medical facility (ИНВХ им. В. Гусака), framed as humanitarian aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for actual delivery of aid).
МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video of "caravan of high-tech donkeys at the front on the fourth year of war," demonstrating logistical improvisation (use of pack animals). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for video, MEDIUM for "high-tech" interpretation, LOW for specific timeframe).
Colonelcassad posts video of two soldiers from DNR's "third combined army" requesting a "large capacity quad bike" for logistics, indicating specific equipment needs and reliance on public support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Information Operations: RF milbloggers continue to publish propaganda, including claims of UAF strikes on Belgorod with civilian casualties, footage of alleged UAF equipment destruction, cynical posts about Ukrainian Independence Day, and exploiting diplomatic tensions. TASS highlights an RF MoD narrative of a junior sergeant evacuating wounded and claims of increased UAF strikes on RF territory. Colonelcassad's post about Ukraine's Independence Day in Zaporizhzhia and Alex Parker Returns' claim of a first FPV drone in Zaporizhzhia are attempts to diminish Ukrainian sovereignty. Colonelcassad's latest video showcasing "humanitarian aid" aims to boost morale. TASS also reports RF fire control over Karantynnyi Island (Kherson). New reports from Операция Z/Военкоры Русской Весны highlight alleged Israeli airstrikes in Yemen and now show a video of Kazakh children and Indians singing a Russian hit. TASS also reports on government plans to allow voluntary restriction of access to "dangerous content" for Russians. TASS reports Saldo claims UAF is burning forests in Kherson Oblast to intimidate civilians. TASS also reports pro-Russian underground sources claim residents evacuating Kyiv-controlled Kherson face corruption and bureaucracy. The TASS video features a man discussing agricultural activities, referring to prevention of fires as a "terrorist act." Saldo claims UAF destroyed half of all ambulances in frontline Kherson Oblast. Colonelcassad's photo message "Внимание, жители Украины!" indicates a continuation of psychological operations. The TASS video showing destruction and activity in Philiia, Dnipropetrovsk, is an attempt to support the new advance claim. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны are also expanding their reach with a new channel on the MAX messenger. TASS reports China Daily opinion on Zelenskyy needing to reach consensus for productive talks with Putin. TASS video of joint RF-PLA naval patrol serves to project military cooperation and strength. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RF Human Rights Commissioner Moskalova claims negotiations with Ukraine occurred in Belarus. TASS reports pro-Russian underground sources claim residents of Kyiv-controlled Zaporizhzhia Oblast are refusing evacuation efforts by Ukrainian authorities. TASS reports Andrei Marochko claims UAF losses, including foreign mercenaries, for the week in battles near Luhansk Oblast are almost 4.4 thousand killed and wounded. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" with photos and captions about "Airborne brotherhood, family" are recruitment/morale boosting. Colonelcassad's new photo messages, captioned "Moments of the SMO. Frontline weekdays.", showing a domestic cat on wooden crates, are attempts to normalize the conflict and humanize RF forces. TASS reports an executive proceeding against singer Zemfira* was closed after debts were paid, and Trump stated he would support annulling licenses of ABC and NBC for criticizing him. "Два майора" is publishing daily summaries with civilian-focused videos. RF is also showcasing heavy demining equipment. TASS reports that Southern Group of Forces' UAV and artillery crews destroyed a UAF UAV control post and radio equipment in DNR. TASS also reports Iran's Ambassador to RF states Israel's planned operation in Gaza will be a big crime. RBC-Ukraine reports on which European countries could see anti-Ukrainian forces win. Басурин о главном posts #ДЕНЬвИСТОРИИ. ТАСС also posts about South Korea-Trump meeting and Medvedev's tennis loss. Colonelcassad posts about channel information. Архангел Спецназа posts general good morning messages. ASTRA reports one person died and nine were injured in Sumy Oblast. ASTRA and TASS report the Prosecutor General's Office recognized the Swiss NGO "International Baccalaureate" as "undesirable." "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a photo message claiming the US Vice President stated Trump needs 6 more months to convince Putin to stop the war. RF milbloggers "Сливочный каприз" and Воин DV post videos/photos claiming territorial gains in Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk. Военкор Котенок hopes for a "good rocket" to hit Zelenskyy. TASS claims a peaceful resident was wounded in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. "Операция Z" posts a photo of a Ukrainian volunteer threatening Zelenskyy. TASS reports the FSB detained a woman in Crimea. STERNENKO reports RF is indoctrinating children in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a political cartoon captioning internal healthcare issues. ARKHANGEL SPETSNZAZA posts "Ukraine is strengthening". TASS reports suppression of a large online resource for illegal personal data distribution. WarGonzo reports "Europeans do not want to die for Ukraine." Sever.Realii posts a statement from State Duma deputy Butskaya that "Russians are not genetically wired for bananas or mangoes." TASS reports Russia-Europe relations will not be the same. Старше Эдды posts a meme discussing arresting a Stalin fan. TASS reports a former Ukrainian special service officer claims Kuznetsov, suspect in Nord Stream bombing, continued working for SBU on sabotage outside Ukraine. Colonelcassad reports Lieutenant Gomenko Igor, a police officer actively mobilizing residents in Odesa, was killed. TASS reports a "neo-Nazi" from The Times is threatening Zelenskyy with murder for "leaving" Donbas. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a photo message of a mother who died on her son's grave in Zabaykalye. Рыбарь posts a graphic with text "Призыв возвращается" (Conscription Returns). Басурин о главном posts a video showing an APC with Russian and American flags, explicitly as a message to "foreign media," confirming its IO purpose. Старше Эдды advocates for amending the criminal code to judge individuals based on political beliefs as an aggravating circumstance. РБК-Україна posts a video titled "No gasoline and there won't be: on Ukraine's Independence Day, Russian TV viewers were shown the truth about the war," which is a Ukrainian counter-IO piece highlighting Russian losses and resource issues. Kotsnews posts text stating "Hungary was slapped on the cheeks again. My note for the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine," indicating continued diplomatic tensions with Hungary.
UPDATES:
TASS reports Polish President Karol Nawrocki vetoed a bill extending special status and benefits for Ukrainians who arrived after February 2022. This will be amplified by RF as a sign of eroding European support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports the Investigative Committee opened a case against a Ukrainian militant who participated in blocking the Olesnya farmstead in Kursk Oblast. This is a clear RF IO attempt to criminalize Ukrainian defenders and justify actions in Kursk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Alex Parker Returns amplifies the TASS narrative on "biological drones" in the Crocus City Hall attack, linking it to religion and nationality to sow discord and justify xenophobia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
STERNENKO (UAF) reports on a Russian official from the "temporarily occupied territory of Japan, the Kuril Islands," announcing a halt to the sale of 92-octane gasoline. This is likely UAF counter-IO aimed at highlighting RF internal issues and questionable territorial claims. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF IO).
Басурин о главном claims a "Geran-2 pinpoint strike on hidden infrastructure" in Sloviansk. This is an IO piece to demonstrate RF precision strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports on Mikhail Degtyarev heading the TASS "For Loyalty" award jury. This is domestic news that serves to normalize the situation and divert attention. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports the need to toughen punishment for disseminating Russians' personal data. This indicates continued internal information control efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video featuring a man recounting alleged mistreatment, beatings, and eventual execution by "Dudka" and "Batrak" after being captured in Ukraine, followed by claims of his own mistreatment by Ukrainian authorities for PTSD. This is likely an RF IO piece aiming to demoralize UAF and portray internal brutality. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for veracity).
Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video of a captured RF soldier (Vladislav Shildyaev) from the 60th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade, stating he signed a contract so his father wouldn't be conscripted. This is UAF counter-IO aimed at showing low RF morale and forced mobilization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF IO).
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of "a local drunkard neutralizing a Russian fiber-optic FPV with his bare hands" near Pokrovsk. This is UAF counter-IO to show local resistance and ingenuity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF IO).
TASS posts a video on four journalists killed in Israeli strikes on Nasser Hospital in Gaza, an RF IO attempt to divert attention and align with anti-Western narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
STERNENKO reports "90 MILLION OUT OF 100!" referring to a fundraising campaign, indicating ongoing UAF fundraising and resource needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports the detention of Vladimir Bazarov (acting deputy governor of Kursk Oblast) for embezzling 1 billion rubles meant for defensive fortifications in Belgorod Oblast. This is a significant internal corruption report that RF will likely try to frame as successful anti-corruption efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
MoD Russia claims "Liberating Filiya: artillery support, drone strikes and river crossing" with video. This is a significant IO push to claim territorial gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Рыбарь posts a video "Bomb in an Icon" featuring the FSB detaining a woman in Crimea for an alleged icon bomb plot, amplifying the narrative of Ukrainian sabotage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
Colonelcassad posts a graphic on "Growth of Ukraine's public debt by 2025," an RF IO attempt to highlight Ukraine's financial vulnerability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts a video claiming "Russia returned children to the Motherland through the mediation of Qatar." This is an RF IO piece aiming to portray Russia as a humanitarian actor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports Poland's President proposed stricter conditions for obtaining Polish citizenship, including denying it to those sympathizing with "Bandera ideology." This is a significant RF IO piece to amplify divisions between Poland and Ukraine and appeal to anti-Ukrainian sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Новости Москвы reports on "welders leading the rating of highest-paid professions in Russia," a domestic news item that supports the narrative of internal economic strength and normalcy. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports on new regulations for salaries and working conditions in Russia starting Sept 1st. Domestic news to show government functionality. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Vladikavkaz airport. Domestic news related to air travel, likely a weather-related or operational issue. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Russian tourists stranded in Sanya, China due to typhoon. Domestic news focusing on citizen welfare. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
ASTRA and Оперативний ЗСУ report on Polish President vetoing payments for unemployed Ukrainians. This is RF IO amplification of a real event. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, HIGH for factual event).
Kadyrov_95 posts a video on a tactical shooting championship, featuring participants from Russia and "friendly countries" (Kuwait, Bahrain, Chechnya). This is an RF IO piece to project military prowess and international alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Janus Putkonen (Finnish pro-RF source) posts about Finnish President Stubb's statements "not spreading well." This is a pro-RF IO piece aiming to highlight perceived Western disunity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
"Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" (RF source) posts a rhetorical question "What else can the military do besides kill?", possibly to provoke discussion or portray a more complex image of military personnel. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE for IO, could be interpreted in various ways).
Басурин о главном posts the same "Bomb in an Icon" video as Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны, reinforcing the narrative of Ukrainian sabotage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Олександр Вілкул (Ukrainian official) posts photos about reconstruction efforts in Kryvyi Rih, including 30,000 windows and a high-speed tram station. This is UAF counter-IO demonstrating resilience and commitment to civilian welfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF IO).
Alex Parker Returns posts an image claiming a Russian student was fined for a meme with a swastika, likely an RF IO attempt to portray internal anti-extremism efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Sever.Realii reports on Russian bookstores being warned about restrictions on "foreign agent" books, indicating continued internal information control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Старше Эдды references a discussion with Andrey Medvedev, indicating continued milblogger engagement on internal discourse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports court proceedings on Igor Talkov murder case delayed, a domestic news item. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS posts video of Putin meeting Grigorenko, discussing combating fraud, showing government functionality. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports 15 million Russians used "Gosuslugi" for self-restriction on loans, indicating internal control over financial activities. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts that "Western dominance is ending. The conflict in Ukraine changed the balance of power," a clear RF IO piece promoting a narrative of global shift. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Басурин о главном posts a video "Dark shadow over 'Druzhba': Hungary in a trap of political blackmail," an RF IO piece attempting to sow discord between Ukraine and Hungary and exploit energy security concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Воин DV states "Canada is seriously getting involved for Ukraine," likely an RF IO piece to portray Western overreach. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
ASTRA reports on journalists killed in Israeli airstrike in Gaza, an RF IO attempt to divert attention. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video with Zelenskyy discussing "Druzhba" pipeline strikes, an RF IO attempt to portray Zelenskyy's reaction negatively. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO framing, MEDIUM for actual content).
ASTRA posts VPN advertisement, showing a demand for bypassing internet restrictions in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for advertisement, MEDIUM for implied demand).
UAF:
Counteroffensive Actions: Continued successful localized counterattacks in Donetsk (Novomykhailivka, Mykhailivka, Zelenyi Hai, Volodymyrivka) demonstrate offensive capabilities. ISW maps confirm UAF successes near Pokrovsk. Оперативний ЗСУ shares drone footage from the 67th Mechanized Brigade showing attacks on enemy positions. STERNENKO reports the 3rd SSO Regiment destroyed a Russian truck with ammunition and a cannon in the Pokrovsk direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video in their "Putin's Last Kiss" segment, which typically shows Russian combat losses. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade reports repelling 35 enemy attacks, inflicting 104 personnel losses, 233 "Orlan-10" drones, 8 FPV drones, 2 artillery systems, 5 vehicles, and 2 motorcycles on the Pokrovsk direction. STERNENKO posts a video claiming the 3rd SSO Regiment destroyed an enemy motorcyclist in the Pokrovsk direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that UAF liberated Novomykhailivka and pushed back the enemy in Zelenyi Hai, Donetsk Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a photo claiming "FOUR TOOK 15 PRISONERS: FEAT OF 'ARTIST' GROUP, 78TH AIR ASSAULT BRIGADE," indicating a successful UAF small unit action. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video on the Lyman area, stating the situation has complicated, accompanied by drone footage showing explosions and troop movements.
UPDATES:
Colonelcassad posts video titled "The finale of the 'blitzkrieg': UAF buried their myths near Novomykhailivka," which, despite the RF IO title, appears to show UAF forces in combat with Ukrainian flags. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO framing, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for the accuracy of RF narrative).
"Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a video claiming UAF DRG (sabotage and reconnaissance group) entered Russian rear in Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, killing two "hired workers." (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF IO, LOW for immediate verification of details).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts video of Ukrainian DRG activity on a post deep in occupied Kherson region, claiming two RF servicemen killed (200). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. This RF IO indicates continued combat engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
High Morale: Ukraine's success in rhythmic gymnastics. HUR soldiers reciting a patriotic poem and the Eiffel Tower illumination in Ukraine's colors. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights' post on Kherson Mayor Mykolayenko's capture. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" contains a video of a Ukrainian soldier recounting a successful defensive action. Oleksandr Vilkul's report on Kryvyi Rih being controlled. STERNENKO reports starting the morning by "helping the army." Сили оборони Півдня України posts operational info with a photo of a tribute to fallen soldiers. Kyiv City Military Administration and Zaporizhzhia OVA also post minute of silence for fallen defenders. Оперативний ЗСУ's 67th Mechanized Brigade video. The "Rubizh" National Guard Brigade is collecting funds for equipment restoration. STERNENKO reports RF is indoctrinating children in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Олег Синєгубов, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, posts photos of transferring evacuation drones to 10 combat units on the Kharkiv direction.
UPDATES:
Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts video titled "Unbreakable paratroopers met Independence Day on their native land," showing soldiers with Ukrainian flags and chanting, a strong morale boost. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Zelenskiy / Official and Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація posts video of President Zelenskyy meeting with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, signifying continued international support and a morale boost. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts about awarding servicemen in the 58th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade for professionalism and courage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Information Environment: UAF channels are actively reporting on enemy air threats, highlighting UAF successes, and promoting national unity. UAF Foreign Minister reacts sharply to Hungarian FM statements. Sybiha's direct and strong response to Hungary. РБК-Україна reports that Merz is outlining security guarantees for Ukraine. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports on Moskalova's claim of negotiations in Belarus. RBC-Ukraine published ISW maps. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that German FM states Ukraine should receive security guarantees close to NATO. General Staff of UAF and OTU "Kharkiv" provide estimated RF combat losses. RBC-Ukraine reports on which European countries could see anti-Ukrainian forces win. ASTRA reports Ukrainian FM statement responding to Hungary. UAF General Staff provides a tactical analysis image of the Kup'yansk direction and indicates "enemy did not conduct offensive actions" in the Dnipro direction. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" post on Trump/Putin. РБК-Україна reports Prime Minister of Norway Jonas Gahr Støre has arrived in Kyiv. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine and Lithuania will jointly produce defense products. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine has for the first time shown a new "Long Neptune" missile. Оперативний ЗСУ reports up to 6 hits on the Tatarstan logistical complex. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports sea mines have again been spotted near the coast of Odesa. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports life imprisonment for a Kharkiv traitor. Tsaplienko reports China is not sending peacekeepers. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that UAF liberated Novomykhailivka and pushed back the enemy in Zelenyi Hai, Donetsk Oblast. РБК-Україна posts a video (mentioned above) highlighting Russian losses and resource issues, serving as a Ukrainian counter-IO piece. Kotsnews posts text indicating continued diplomatic tensions with Hungary (mentioned above).
UPDATES:
РБК-Україна reports on upcoming cold weather in Kyiv tomorrow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 confirms Ukraine has publicly demonstrated a long-range modification of the Neptune cruise missile. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video (described under RF IO above) which, while likely RF IO, details mistreatment within the RF military and captures some elements of combat, which UAF IO can reframe. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of "a local drunkard neutralizing a Russian fiber-optic FPV," a piece of UAF counter-IO highlighting resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video of a captured RF soldier (Vladislav Shildyaev), serving as UAF counter-IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
STERNENKO reports "90 MILLION OUT OF 100!" for fundraising, indicating UAF's continued reliance on public support and transparent reporting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Zelenskiy / Official and Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація posts video of President Zelenskyy meeting with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, a strong statement of international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
РБК-Україна posts a video of President Zelenskyy meeting Norwegian PM Jonas Gahr Store in Kyiv, emphasizing international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Оперативний ЗСУ reports Polish President vetoed a law on payments to unemployed Ukrainians. This is a factual report of a development that may be exploited by RF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
"Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a video compilation of Russian TV segments showing explosions at oil refineries and burials of "occupiers." This is UAF counter-IO highlighting RF losses and domestic issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
РБК-Україна posts video showing destruction in Pishchane, Sumy Oblast, from an RF attack, highlighting civilian impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
STERNENKO posts a drone video of the Phoenix UAV unit operating in Pokrovsk, implying successful UAF operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Оперативний ЗСУ reports Norway's Parliament will consider allocating $8.45 billion to Ukraine for 2025-2026, confirming strong financial support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Олександр Вілкул (Ukrainian official) posts photos about reconstruction efforts in Kryvyi Rih, demonstrating resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy's statement about Russia trying to disrupt winter preparations through energy strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy announced a meeting between Ukrainian and US teams to discuss future negotiations with Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
STERNENKO confirms Zelenskyy's announcement of US-Ukraine negotiations meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація reports air raid alert lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) announces a new MRI scanner, promoting civilian welfare and resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) post video of Zelenskyy meeting Norwegian PM, emphasizing international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts about awarding servicemen in the 58th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade, serving as a morale boost and counter-IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
РБК-Україна reports Polish President vetoed social assistance for Ukrainians, a factual report of a development that may be exploited by RF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
1.4. Relevant Dempster-Shafer Beliefs (Updated)
UPDATED BELIEF: "Military Action: Artillery Barrage by Russia on UAF in Kharkiv/Donetsk": The RF MoD video depicting Giatsint-B artillery engagement supports this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "Military Action: Drone Strike by Russia on ATV/Personnel in Undisclosed Location": Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "Internal Security: Sabotage Operation in Crimea (RF claim)": Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video of bomb in icon. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Mother died on son's grave in Zabaykalye (IO to promote sacrifice)": ASTRA photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: RF claims liberation of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast": Colonelcassad video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity, MEDIUM for visual evidence.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Casualties/Damage: 1 dead, 9 injured in Sumy Oblast shelling": ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Kazakh children singing Russian hit (IO to promote influence)": Басурин о главном video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Internal Issue: 48% of IT specialists want to leave Ukraine": Оперативний ЗСУ text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Control: Authorities want to allow Russians to voluntarily restrict access to 'dangerous content'": ASTRA text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Internal Security: Corruption in conscription/reservations for $19k": Офіс Генерального прокурора photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF-PLA Cooperation: Joint naval patrols completed in Pacific Ocean": MoD Russia video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF General Staff Reports: Clashes in Kharkiv (South Slobozhansky), Kupyansk, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Kursk, North Slobozhansky directions": Liveuamap Source text/photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF General Staff Reports: RF Aviation airstrikes at Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson regions": Liveuamap Source text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF General Staff Reports: UAF repelled 10 RF assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction": Liveuamap Source photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: RF MoD and milbloggers amplify claims of 'liberation' of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast": TASS, Военкор Котенок, Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны, Kotsnews. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Military Action: FPV Drone Strike on Alleged RF Officer in Pokrovsk Direction": Оперативний ЗСУ video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for FPV strike, MEDIUM for specific target identification).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Morale: Veteran entrepreneurship supported by Zaporizhzhia RSA": Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Morale/Counter-IO: HUR MOD special forces 'Ghosts' Independence Day greeting, drone successes": Оперативний ЗСУ video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: TASS reports on US-Ukraine diplomatic friction": TASS text message on Zaluzhny/Vance/Zelenskyy/Trump. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Fighterbomber post on Ka-52 commander": Fighterbomber photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Security: Enhanced security in Kursk Oblast schools": TASS text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Issue: Internet outage impacting retail in Pskov Oblast": Север.Реалии text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Colonelcassad 'Chronicle of strikes' on Ukraine": Colonelcassad photo/video messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Issue: Tanker explosion in Chukotka": ASTRA text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Morale: Kharkiv Oblast Administration post on return of personnel": Олег Синєгубов photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Basurin anti-Ukrainian language IO in Odesa": Басурин о главном photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Engagement with Allies: Romanian Armed Forces delegation visits Ukraine": Генеральний штаб ЗСУ photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Narodnaya Militsiya DNR highlights damage to cultural site (library) and digitization efforts": Народная милиция ДНР video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Morale: Ukrainian Marine Corps photo message": Генеральний штаб ЗСУ photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Polish President vetoes aid for Ukrainians (RF IO)": TASS photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Security: Investigative Committee opens case against Ukrainian militant in Kursk Oblast (RF IO)": TASS text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Crocus City Hall attack linked to religion/nationality (RF IO)": Alex Parker Returns photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Counter-IO: Russian official's statement on Kuril Islands gasoline halt (UAF IO)": STERNENKO photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Geran-2 strike on hidden infrastructure in Sloviansk (RF IO)": Басурин о главном photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Issue: Novoshakhtinsky Oil Refinery fire continues": Alex Parker Returns video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Disillusioned RF soldier captured, claims mistreatment (UAF IO)": БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video (RF IO frame, UAF reframing potential). (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for UAF reframe).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Counter-IO: Local neutralizes Russian FPV drone near Pokrovsk": ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Counter-IO: Captured RF soldier signed contract to protect father (UAF IO)": Оперативний ЗСУ video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Israeli strikes on Gaza hospital (RF IO to divert/align)": TASS video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Fundraising: STERNENKO reports 90 million collected out of 100 million": STERNENKO text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Security: Kursk Oblast deputy governor detained for embezzlement of fortifications funds": Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Military Action/IO: MoD Russia claims 'Liberating Filiya' with video of combat": MoD Russia video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Security/IO: FSB detains woman in Crimea for icon bomb plot (RF IO)": Рыбарь video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Morale/Diplomacy: Zelenskyy meets Norwegian PM Jonas Gahr Støre": Zelenskiy / Official and Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація videos. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Ukraine's public debt growth graphic (RF IO)": Colonelcassad photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Russia returned children with Qatar's mediation (RF IO)": Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: UAF in Kamyshevakha in 'fire bag' after Zaporizhzhia 'liberation' (RF IO)": TASS text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Military Action: Homemade drone with explosives on Zaporizhzhia Front": Два майора video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Morale: Ukrainian paratroopers meet Independence Day on native land": Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "Weather Impact: Coldest day in Kyiv expected tomorrow": РБК-Україна photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Military Action: RF army advanced west of Kupyansk and in Udachne (RF IO)": Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity.)
NEW BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Polish President proposes stricter citizenship conditions (RF IO to amplify divisions)": TASS text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
NEW BELIEF: "RF Internal Issue: Welders are highest paid profession in Russia (RF IO to show economic stability)": Новости Москвы photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
NEW BELIEF: "RF Logistical Support: Delivery of medical equipment to medical facility (RF IO for humanitarian aid)": Народная милиция ДНР video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
NEW BELIEF: "RF Internal Issue: New labor regulations in Russia starting September 1st (Domestic news)": ТАСС text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW BELIEF: "RF Territorial Claim/IO: RF MoD claims 'Zaporozhskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) was liberated'": MoD Russia text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity.)
NEW BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: WarGonzo drone video with explosive payload (RF combat footage/IO)": WarGonzo video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for drone capabilities).
NEW BELIEF: "UAF Counter-IO: Russian TV shows refinery explosions and burials (UAF counter-IO)": Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW BELIEF: "RF Internal Issue: Temporary flight restrictions at Vladikavkaz airport (Domestic news)": ASTRA text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW BELIEF: "RF Internal Issue: Russian tourists stranded in Sanya, China due to typhoon (Domestic news)": ТАСС photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW BELIEF: "UAF Casualties/Damage: Street in Pishchane, Sumy Oblast, destroyed by RF attack": РБК-Україна video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW BELIEF: "UAF Military Action: Phoenix UAV unit operating in Pokrovsk (UAF combat footage)": STERNENKO video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW BELIEF: "RF Military Action/ISR: Colonelcassad drone footage showing UAF targets destroyed (RF combat footage/IO)": Colonelcassad video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for depicted destruction).
NEW BELIEF: "RF Internal Security: Tactical shooting championship with international participants (RF IO for military prowess/alliances)": Kadyrov_95 video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
NEW BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Janus Putkonen post on Stubb's statements (Pro-RF IO for Western disunity)": Janus Putkonen photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
NEW BELIEF: "UAF Counter-IO: UAF DRG in Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, killing two (UAF counter-IO)": Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF IO, LOW for immediate verification of details).
NEW BELIEF: "RF IO/Morale: "Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" rhetorical question (RF IO, open to interpretation)": "Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" text message. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE for IO).
NEW BELIEF: "UAF Reconstruction/Resilience: Kryvyi Rih reconstruction efforts (UAF counter-IO)": Олександр Вілкул photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Student fined for meme with swastika (RF IO to show anti-extremism efforts)": Alex Parker Returns photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
NEW BELIEF: "RF Information Control: Bookstores warned about 'foreign agent' books (Internal information control)": Север.Реалии text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW BELIEF: "RF Domestic News: Court delays Igor Talkov murder case (Domestic news/distraction)": TASS text message. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW BELIEF: "UAF Military Action: Ukrainian DRG activity in Kherson, 2 RF KIA (UAF claim)": БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity).
NEW BELIEF: "RF Logistical Improvisation: Donkeys used as pack animals at front (RF tactical observation/IO)": МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for video, MEDIUM for "high-tech" interpretation, LOW for specific timeframe).
NEW BELIEF: "RF Domestic Politics: Putin meets Grigorenko on combating fraud (Domestic news/IO to show governance)": TASS video message. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW BELIEF: "UAF Civilian Welfare: New MRI scanner in Dnipropetrovsk hospital (UAF counter-IO/resilience)": 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW BELIEF: "RF Internal Security: 15 million Russians use Gosuslugi for loan self-restriction (Domestic news/control)": TASS photo message. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Western dominance ending, Ukraine conflict shifts balance (RF IO)": Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
NEW BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Hungary in trap of political blackmail over Druzhba pipeline (RF IO to sow discord)": Басурин о главном video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
NEW BELIEF: "UAF Morale: 58th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade award ceremony (UAF counter-IO/morale)": ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Canada seriously involved for Ukraine (RF IO to portray Western overreach)": Воин DV text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
NEW BELIEF: "RF Military Action/IO: 'Otvazhny' destroying militants in Krasnoarmeysk direction (RF combat footage/IO)": Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
NEW BELIEF: "RF Logistical Need: DNR soldiers requesting quad bike (RF specific equipment need/fundraising)": Colonelcassad video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW BELIEF: "UAF Diplomacy: Ukraine-US teams to discuss future negotiations with Russia (UAF diplomatic initiative)": Оперативний ЗСУ and STERNENKO text messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW BELIEF: "UAF Leadership: Zelenskyy states Russia targets energy infrastructure to disrupt winter prep (UAF strategic communication)": РБК-Україна text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Offensive Ground Operations (Kharkiv/Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia): RF demonstrates capacity to sustain multi-axis ground pressure with air and EW support. New claims of advancing in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast near Philiia, fording a river and breaking UAF defenses, supported by MoD Russia video. RF also conducted 500 strikes on 13 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including KAB strikes on Kushuhumska Hromada, and FPV drone/artillery attacks on Nikopol. ISW maps confirm RF offensive across the entire front. UAF General Staff indicates "enemy did not conduct offensive actions" in the Dnipro direction, contradicting RF claims for Philiia. Kotsnews video claims a 'Russian flag over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast,' with footage showing destruction and combat activity. TASS reports Pushilin claims RF groups are entering the outskirts of Konstantynivka in DNR and controlling the situation near Dobropillya. Воин DV claims "liberation" of Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) with video of thermal drone strike, and "Сливочный каприз" posts photos and video suggesting control in Великая Новосёлка - Запорожское. Colonelcassad and "Два майора" post photo and video claiming control over Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims an RF strike on the HQ of the 42nd Brigade in Preobrazhenka on the Dnipropetrovsk direction. TASS claims Southern Grouping of Forces destroyed a UAF ammunition depot in the Konstantynivka direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports RF forces struck gas infrastructure in Ukraine, near Dikanka (Poltava Oblast). Kotsnews posts a video with soldiers discussing fighting on the Dnipropetrovsk front, claiming difficulties in clearing areas and use of drones/artillery. Народная милиция ДНР posts drone footage claiming the destruction of a UAF pickup truck near Novy Ekonomycheskoye. Два майора posts a video claiming the destruction of a building with UAF personnel in Burgunka, Kherson Oblast, using FABs. Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны claim "Liberation of Filiya," with video showing drone footage of explosions, damaged buildings, and a Russian flag on a damaged structure. Воин DV posts video claiming destruction of 3 UAF armored vehicles in Novosiolovka area.
UPDATES:
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims "Russian army advanced to the west of Kupyansk and in Udachne," indicating continued offensive capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity.)
Басурин о главном claims a "Geran-2 pinpoint strike on hidden infrastructure" in Sloviansk, demonstrating precision strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, MEDIUM for capability, LOW for immediate veracity).
"Два майора" posts video from "Zaporizhzhia Front" showing a homemade drone with explosives, indicating continued use of improvised methods for tactical engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for use of such drones, MEDIUM for the depicted combat scenario as recent).
RF MoD claims "Zaporozhskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) was liberated." (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity.)
WarGonzo posts a video showing a drone launching an explosive, indicative of continued tactical drone strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage with RF MoD logo and "Rubikon" emblem, showing destruction of various UAF military targets, demonstrating ISR and strike capabilities against UAF equipment and positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for capability, MEDIUM for specific context/timeframe).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, indicating continued combat effectiveness in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
Air-Launched Guided Munitions & Mass Drone Production: Continued heavy use of KAB/FAB glide bombs and drone attacks. Demonstrated capability for drone-on-drone combat. Renewed and sustained multi-day drone/artillery attacks on Sumy. Два майора posts a video claiming the destruction of a building with UAF personnel in Burgunka, Kherson Oblast, using FABs. Sever.Realii reports that Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 104 Shahed and imitator drones in the night of August 25.
UPDATES:
Басурин о главном claims a "Geran-2 pinpoint strike on hidden infrastructure" in Sloviansk, suggesting continued precision strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, MEDIUM for capability).
WarGonzo posts a video showing a drone launching an explosive, reinforcing capabilities in drone-based tactical strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage showing destruction of various UAF military targets, demonstrating combined ISR and strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for capability).
Information Warfare: Capability to generate propaganda quickly, as seen with immediate claims of UAF strikes on Belgorod civilians, cynical posts about Ukrainian Independence Day, claims of UAF equipment destruction, exploiting diplomatic disputes, discrediting captured UAF personnel, showcasing public support for military efforts, diverting attention to other global conflicts, promoting cultural influence, and subtly linking China's military might to the RF narrative. Claims of increased UAF strikes on RF territory serve to justify their own actions. Claims of fire control (Karantynnyi Island) aim to project strength. New reports of UAF burning forests in Kherson and corruption regarding evacuees demonstrate capability to generate localized disinformation. NEW CAPABILITY: Demonize UAF actions by falsely claiming destruction of critical civilian infrastructure (ambulances). Colonelcassad's general warning message to Ukrainians. The TASS video accompanying the Dnipropetrovsk advance claim, and the expansion of milblogger channels to MAX messenger, shows continuous adaptation and reach. New capabilities include leveraging foreign media (China Daily) to promote RF diplomatic narratives, staging diplomatic claims (Moskalova), showcasing naval cooperation (RF-PLA joint patrol), claiming UAF civilian refusal of evacuation (Zaporizhzhia), and inflating UAF casualty figures (Luhansk). RF also demonstrates capability to use trivial domestic news and foreign political events as distractions. New posts humanizing RF forces (cat on ammo boxes, airborne brotherhood posts) show adaptive IO tactics. New capability for "Два майора" to publish daily summaries with civilian-focused videos. TASS claim of UAV control post destruction is an IO. TASS report on Iran's Ambassador is an IO to align with anti-Western narratives. RF will likely exploit RBC-Ukraine's report on anti-Ukrainian forces in Europe. Басурин о главном posts are historical IO. ТАСС posts on South Korea-Trump meeting and Medvedev's tennis loss are distraction/normalization. Colonelcassad posts about channel information. Архангел Спецназа posts general good morning messages. ASTRA reports one person died and nine were injured in Sumy Oblast. ASTRA and TASS report the Prosecutor General's Office recognized the Swiss NGO "International Baccalaureate" as "undesirable." "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a photo message claiming the US Vice President stated Trump needs 6 more months to convince Putin to stop the war. RF milbloggers "Сливочный каприз" and Воин DV post videos/photos claiming territorial gains in Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk. Военкор Котенок hopes for a "good rocket" to hit Zelenskyy. TASS claims a peaceful resident was wounded in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. "Операция Z" posts a photo of a Ukrainian volunteer threatening Zelenskyy. TASS reports the FSB detained a woman in Crimea. STERNENKO reports RF is indoctrinating children in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a political cartoon captioning internal healthcare issues. ARKHANGEL SPETSNZAZA posts "Ukraine is strengthening". TASS reports suppression of a large online resource for illegal personal data distribution. WarGonzo reports "Europeans do not want to die for Ukraine." Sever.Realii posts a statement from State Duma deputy Butskaya that "Russians are not genetically wired for bananas or mangoes." TASS reports Russia-Europe relations will not be the same. Старше Эдды posts a meme discussing arresting a Stalin fan. TASS reports a former Ukrainian special service officer claims Kuznetsov, suspect in Nord Stream bombing, continued working for SBU on sabotage outside Ukraine. Colonelcassad reports Lieutenant Gomenko Igor, a police officer actively mobilizing residents in Odesa, was killed. TASS reports a "neo-Nazi" from The Times is threatening Zelenskyy with murder for "leaving" Donbas. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a photo message of a mother who died on her son's grave in Zabaykalye. Рыбарь posts a graphic with text "Призыв возвращается" (Conscription Returns). Басурин о главном posts a video showing an APC with Russian and American flags, explicitly as a message to "foreign media," confirming its IO purpose. Старше Эдды advocates for amending the criminal code to judge individuals based on political beliefs as an aggravating circumstance. РБК-Україна posts a video titled "No gasoline and there won't be: on Ukraine's Independence Day, Russian TV viewers were shown the truth about the war," which is a Ukrainian counter-IO piece highlighting Russian losses and resource issues. Kotsnews posts text stating "Hungary was slapped on the cheeks again. My note for the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine," indicating continued diplomatic tensions with Hungary.
UPDATES:
TASS reports Polish President Karol Nawrocki vetoed a bill extending special status for Ukrainians, which RF will leverage to sow discord. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports on the Investigative Committee opening a case against a Ukrainian militant in Kursk, a clear criminalization narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Alex Parker Returns amplifies Crocus City Hall narratives, focusing on religious/ethnic angles, a continuation of divisive propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Басурин о главном claims a Geran-2 strike in Sloviansk, serving to project RF military effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video (described above) likely framed as RF IO, but can also be re-contextualized by UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for re-contextualization potential).
TASS posts on Israeli strikes on a Gaza hospital, a diversionary tactic to focus on other international conflicts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the detention of a Kursk Oblast deputy governor for embezzlement related to fortifications, a significant internal issue that RF may attempt to spin as successful anti-corruption efforts, but also highlights corruption problems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
MoD Russia posts a video "Liberating Filiya," a strong IO push for territorial gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Рыбарь posts "Bomb in an Icon" video, amplifying the narrative of Ukrainian sabotage in Crimea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
Colonelcassad posts a graphic on "Growth of Ukraine's public debt by 2025," an RF IO attempt to highlight Ukraine's financial vulnerability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video of "Russia returned children to the Motherland through the mediation of Qatar," a humanitarian IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky claims UAF in Kamyshevakha are in a "fire bag" after Zaporizhzhia "liberation," amplifying RF territorial claims. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
"Два майора" posts video of a woman with curly blonde hair and sunglasses on the steps of what appears to be a military tank, possibly a morale-boosting or humanizing IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports Poland's President proposed stricter conditions for obtaining Polish citizenship, including denying it to those sympathizing with "Bandera ideology." This is a significant RF IO piece to amplify divisions between Poland and Ukraine and appeal to anti-Ukrainian sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Новости Москвы reports on "welders leading the rating of highest-paid professions in Russia," a domestic news item that supports the narrative of internal economic strength and normalcy. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Народная милиция ДНР posts video showing delivery of medical equipment, framed as humanitarian aid, to support narrative of positive engagement in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
TASS reports on new regulations for salaries and working conditions in Russia starting Sept 1st. Domestic news to show government functionality. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Vladikavkaz airport. Domestic news related to air travel, likely a weather-related or operational issue. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Russian tourists stranded in Sanya, China due to typhoon. Domestic news focusing on citizen welfare. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kadyrov_95 posts a video on a tactical shooting championship, featuring participants from Russia and "friendly countries" (Kuwait, Bahrain, Chechnya). This is an RF IO piece to project military prowess and international alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Janus Putkonen (Finnish pro-RF source) posts about Finnish President Stubb's statements "not spreading well." This is a pro-RF IO piece aiming to highlight perceived Western disunity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
"Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" (RF source) posts a rhetorical question "What else can the military do besides kill?", possibly to provoke discussion or portray a more complex image of military personnel, potentially aimed at subtly influencing domestic and international perceptions. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE for IO, could be interpreted in various ways).
Alex Parker Returns posts an image claiming a Russian student was fined for a meme with a swastika, likely an RF IO attempt to portray internal anti-extremism efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Sever.Realii reports on Russian bookstores being warned about restrictions on "foreign agent" books, indicating continued internal information control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Старше Эдды references a discussion with Andrey Medvedev, indicating continued milblogger engagement on internal discourse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports court proceedings on Igor Talkov murder case delayed, a domestic news item used as distraction. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS posts video of Putin meeting Grigorenko, discussing combating fraud, serving as IO to show government functionality. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports 15 million Russians used "Gosuslugi" for self-restriction on loans, an IO piece to show internal control and protect citizens. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts that "Western dominance is ending. The conflict in Ukraine changed the balance of power," a clear RF IO piece promoting a narrative of global shift. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Басурин о главном posts a video "Dark shadow over 'Druzhba': Hungary in a trap of political blackmail," an RF IO piece attempting to sow discord between Ukraine and Hungary and exploit energy security concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Воин DV states "Canada is seriously getting involved for Ukraine," likely an RF IO piece to portray Western overreach. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
ASTRA reports on journalists killed in Israeli airstrike in Gaza, an RF IO attempt to divert attention. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video with Zelenskyy discussing "Druzhba" pipeline strikes, an RF IO attempt to portray Zelenskyy's reaction negatively and link UAF to infrastructure attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO framing, MEDIUM for actual content).
ASTRA posts VPN advertisement, implying a need for bypassing internet restrictions in Russia, which RF tries to counter. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for advertisement, MEDIUM for implied demand).
Intentions:
Degrade Ukrainian Military Capacity and Morale: Continue offensive pressure, inflict damage with KABs, drones, ballistic missiles, and precision artillery, and use information operations to demoralize. The sustained attack on Sumy is intended to degrade infrastructure and civilian morale. Maintain fire control over critical areas (Karantynnyi Island). Intends to discredit UAF and civilian authorities in controlled territories (Kherson forest burning, evacuee corruption claims). Aims to demonstrate capability and commitment to infrastructure in occupied territories (Kherson water supply). NEW INTENTION: Demonize UAF actions by falsely claiming destruction of civilian humanitarian assets (ambulances). Intends to demoralize UAF by exaggerating casualties (Luhansk claim). RF intends to degrade UAF C2 and equipment (UAV control post destruction claim). Ganchev's statement expresses clear intent for territorial gain in Kharkiv. Kotsnews video claiming Russian flag over Dnipropetrovsk aims to demoralize and project control. Colonelcassad's claim of HQ destruction in Kramatorsk aims to demonstrate successful targeting of UAF command. Pushilin's claims on Konstantynivka and Dobropillya indicate intent for territorial gains and control. Воин DV and "Сливочный каприз" posts suggest intent to claim recent territorial gains in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia. Военкор Котенок's statement about Zelenskyy indicates intent to eliminate UAF leadership. TASS claim of civilian injury in Belgorod is intended to demonize UAF actions. TASS claim of ammunition depot destruction is intended to demonstrate successful targeting of UAF logistics. Strikes on gas infrastructure (Poltava) and logistical complexes (Tatarstan) indicate intent to degrade Ukrainian energy and logistical support. Narodная милиция ДНР video indicates intent to highlight successful targeting of UAF equipment. Два майора video indicates intent to highlight successful destruction of UAF personnel/positions. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claim about "Druzhba" pipeline aims to highlight potential Ukrainian logistical weaknesses. TASS reports a "neo-Nazi" from The Times is threatening Zelenskyy with murder for "leaving" Donbas, intended to portray internal divisions within Ukraine. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts on mother dying on son's grave, intended to promote sacrifice or exploit grief. Рыбарь's "Conscription Returns" graphic indicates intent to promote mobilization. Операция Z Filiya claim and Воин DV Novosiolovka claim contribute to narratives of RF success. The complicated situation in Lyman (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) will likely be leveraged by RF to show UAF struggles.
UPDATES:
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims "Russian army advanced to the west of Kupyansk and in Udachne," indicating intent for territorial gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
Басурин о главном claims a Geran-2 strike in Sloviansk, demonstrating intent to degrade Ukrainian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
MoD Russia claims "Liberating Filiya" with video, a clear intent to project successful offensive operations and territorial control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky claims UAF in Kamyshevakha are in a "fire bag," indicating intent to show UAF being encircled or defeated. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
"Два майора" posts video of a homemade drone with explosives, demonstrating intent to continue using diverse means to degrade UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RF MoD claims "Zaporozhskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) was liberated," reflecting intent to claim territorial gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
WarGonzo posts drone video showing an explosive payload, reinforcing intent to use drones for tactical strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage showing destruction of various UAF military targets, demonstrating intent to degrade UAF combat capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
"Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" rhetorical question (What else can the military do besides kill?) may be intended to subtly influence perceptions of military actions. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Zelenskyy states Russia is attempting to disrupt winter preparations through energy infrastructure strikes, aligning with the intent to degrade Ukrainian capacity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian DRG activity in Kherson. RF will intend to counter such actions and use them to justify heightened security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, reinforcing intent to inflict losses and gain ground. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
Colonelcassad posts video of soldiers requesting a quad bike, indicating the intent to improve logistical support for frontline units and sustain operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Discredit Ukrainian Government and International Support: Use claims of civilian targeting (Belgorod, Moscow, Smolensk, Bryansk, other RF regions) to portray Ukraine as an aggressor. Undermine Ukrainian national holidays through cynical propaganda. Employ rhetoric (Starshaya Eddy, Alex Parker Returns on Hungary, Operatsiya Z on Germany) to portray Ukraine as a destabilizing force in Europe and Western support as weakness. Discredit UAF personnel (captured soldier video). May also seek to amplify internal Western disputes (US-France, Trump/US media, RBC-Ukraine report on anti-Ukrainian forces, Merz statement from TASS, Colonelcassad's quote of Merz) to weaken support. New intention to leverage foreign media (China Daily) to push RF-aligned diplomatic narratives and stage false diplomatic claims (Moskalova) to undermine Ukraine's international standing. Intends to portray UAF as untrustworthy by claiming refusal of evacuation in occupied territories. RF will also likely exploit RBC-Ukraine's report on anti-Ukrainian forces in Europe. Операция Z's claim about Yak-52s is intended to mock UAF's resourcefulness. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" post indicates intent to undermine Western resolve. Военкоры Русской Весны (Операция Z) post about UK mobile morgues suggests intent to create panic and suggest Western weakness. "Два майора" post on migratory policy indicates intent to link domestic issues to conflict and support hardline internal policy. TASS claim of Crimea sabotage plot is intended to demonize UAF special services. "Операция Z" post on Ukrainian volunteer threatening Zelenskyy is intended to highlight internal dissent within Ukraine. WarGonzo post on Europeans not wanting to die for Ukraine and Sever.Realii post about "genetically not wired" Russians for certain foods are intended to undermine international support and foster nationalistic sentiment. TASS Stubb statement is intended to signal a new reality for Russia-Europe relations. Старше Эдды meme is intended to highlight Western paranoia. TASS Prozorov claim is intended to frame SBU as engaged in international sabotage. Colonelcassad Gomenko claim is intended to highlight alleged corruption and brutality of Ukrainian mobilization. Басурин о главном video (APC with flags) explicitly states its purpose is to counter "foreign media" narratives, confirming intent to discredit. Kotsnews comment on Hungary indicates intent to highlight and exploit diplomatic rifts.
UPDATES:
TASS reports Polish President Karol Nawrocki vetoed a bill extending special status for Ukrainians, clearly intending to highlight weakening European support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports on the Investigative Committee opening a case against a Ukrainian militant in Kursk, intending to criminalize Ukrainian actions and legitimize RF defensive operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Alex Parker Returns amplifies Crocus City Hall narratives, focusing on religious/ethnic angles, with the intent to sow discord and justify xenophobia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video featuring a man recounting alleged mistreatment, beatings, and eventual execution by "Dudka" and "Batrak" after being captured in Ukraine, followed by claims of his own mistreatment by Ukrainian authorities for PTSD. This is likely an RF IO piece aiming to demoralize UAF and portray internal brutality. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for veracity).
TASS posts on Israeli strikes on a Gaza hospital, intending to divert attention from Ukraine and align with anti-Western sentiments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Рыбарь posts "Bomb in an Icon" video, amplifying the narrative of Ukrainian sabotage in Crimea to discredit Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
Colonelcassad posts a graphic on Ukraine's public debt, intending to highlight financial vulnerability and discredit the Ukrainian government. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video of "Russia returned children to the Motherland through the mediation of Qatar," aiming to portray Russia as a humanitarian actor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky claims UAF in Kamyshevakha are in a "fire bag," intending to amplify a narrative of Ukrainian defeat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports Poland's President proposed stricter conditions for obtaining Polish citizenship, including denying it to those sympathizing with "Bandera ideology." This is a significant RF IO piece to amplify divisions between Poland and Ukraine and appeal to anti-Ukrainian sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Janus Putkonen (Finnish pro-RF source) posts about Finnish President Stubb's statements "not spreading well." This is a pro-RF IO piece aiming to highlight perceived Western disunity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Alex Parker Returns posts an image claiming a Russian student was fined for a meme with a swastika, an RF IO attempt to portray internal anti-extremism efforts, possibly to distract or justify. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Sever.Realii reports on bookstores warned about "foreign agent" books, indicating intent to control information and suppress dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts that "Western dominance is ending, Ukraine conflict shifts balance," an IO piece to delegitimize Western influence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Басурин о главном posts a video "Dark shadow over 'Druzhba': Hungary in a trap of political blackmail," explicitly intending to sow discord between Ukraine and its allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Воин DV states "Canada is seriously getting involved for Ukraine," intending to portray Western overreach and potential negative consequences. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video with Zelenskyy discussing "Druzhba" pipeline strikes, intending to frame Ukrainian actions negatively regarding critical infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO framing, MEDIUM for actual content).
РБК-Україна reports Polish President vetoed social assistance for Ukrainians, which RF will leverage to show diminishing Western support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Address Internal Hardline Criticisms and Project Strength: Claiming successful UAV interceptions (including over Moscow, Smolensk, Bryansk and other RF regions) and blaming UAF for civilian casualties serves to rally domestic support. Showcasing precision strikes, drone combat, individual heroism (Pirozhenko, Hyacinth commander), and public support for military efforts (Colonelcassad's aid video) reinforces military effectiveness. The claim of increased UAF strikes on RF territory serves to justify RF actions. Imposing air alert regimes indicates a focus on internal security and resilience. Response to internal incidents (Moscow explosion, Bazarov detention) and recruitment drives (Khabarovsk, Airborne brotherhood posts including ceremonies) aim to maintain domestic stability and control. Promoting cultural influence (Kazakh children) and showcasing military ties with China (Beijing parade, joint naval patrol) project global standing. Normalizing conflict (cat on ammo boxes, civilian-focused videos by "Два майора") helps manage public perception. TASS suppression of illegal personal data distribution reinforces internal security. Новости Москвы reports on Russian exceptionalism (39%) to boost nationalism. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники post about their bot aims to support mobilization efforts. TASS reports Bazarov's detention details, to demonstrate effectiveness of internal anti-corruption efforts. TASS drug lab report aims to demonstrate effective law enforcement. Mash на Донбассе video of fatal car crash and Новости Москвы tram video are for domestic consumption and distraction, promoting normalcy. TASS report on solar flare is a purely factual, but diverting, piece of information. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники post on mother dying on son's grave, and Рыбарь's "Conscription Returns" graphic, are direct attempts to shape public opinion on military service and casualties. Старше Эдды's advocacy for judging based on political beliefs aims to shape internal legal frameworks to suppress dissent.
UPDATES:
TASS reports on the Investigative Committee opening a case against a Ukrainian militant in Kursk, intending to project strength in protecting RF territory and prosecuting perceived threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the detention of a Kursk Oblast deputy governor for embezzlement related to fortifications, which RF will likely use to demonstrate internal accountability and control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports on Mikhail Degtyarev heading the TASS "For Loyalty" award jury, contributing to the narrative of domestic stability and recognition. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports the need to toughen punishment for disseminating Russians' personal data, indicating intent to reinforce internal information control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Рыбарь posts "Bomb in an Icon" video, intending to justify internal security measures by highlighting alleged Ukrainian sabotage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
"Два майора" posts video of a woman with curly blonde hair and sunglasses on the steps of what appears to be a military tank, potentially intended to humanize military activity and boost morale/support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Новости Москвы reports on "welders leading the rating of highest-paid professions in Russia," demonstrating domestic economic strength. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports on new regulations for salaries and working conditions in Russia starting Sept 1st. Domestic news to show government functionality. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Vladikavkaz airport. Domestic news related to air travel, likely a weather-related or operational issue. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Russian tourists stranded in Sanya, China due to typhoon. Domestic news focusing on citizen welfare. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kadyrov_95 posts a video on a tactical shooting championship, showcasing military prowess and training, which contributes to internal security and professionalization of forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
"Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" rhetorical question (What else can the military do besides kill?) may be intended to generate discussion or portray military personnel in a more nuanced light for domestic audiences. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Alex Parker Returns posts an image claiming a Russian student was fined for a meme with a swastika, an RF IO attempt to project strength in controlling extremism. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Sever.Realii reports on bookstores warned about "foreign agent" books, indicating intent to maintain internal ideological control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS posts video of Putin meeting Grigorenko, discussing combating fraud, showing government functionality and projecting strong leadership. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports 15 million Russians used "Gosuslugi" for self-restriction on loans, showing government concern for citizens' welfare and control. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video of "caravan of high-tech donkeys," possibly intended to show ingenuity and resilience in supporting troops. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for video, MEDIUM for "high-tech" interpretation, LOW for specific timeframe).
Expand Territorial Control: Continue to press advances in Kharkiv (Vovchansk, Lyptsi) and Donetsk (Chasiv Yar, Konstantynivka). New claims of advancing in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF is also maintaining offensive pressure across the Zaporizhzhia axis. ISW maps confirm RF is advancing along the entire front. Ganchev's statement clearly indicates this intent. Kotsnews video claims Russian flag over Dnipropetrovsk, aiming to signal territorial gain. Pushilin's claims on Konstantynivka and Dobropillya clearly indicate this intent. Воин DV and "Сливочный каприз" posts about "liberating" or controlling areas in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia further reinforce this. Colonelcassad and "Два майора" post photo and video claiming control over Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), aiming to signal territorial gain. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims an RF strike on the HQ of the 42nd Brigade in Preobrazhenka, likely to demonstrate degradation of UAF command. Narodная милиция ДНР video indicates intent to target UAF equipment. Два майора video indicates intent to destroy UAF positions. Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны claim "Liberation of Filiya" and Воин DV claim destruction of 3 UAF armored vehicles are new examples of such claims and actions.
UPDATES:
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports "Russian army advanced to the west of Kupyansk and in Udachne," a direct statement of intent for territorial expansion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
MoD Russia claims "Liberating Filiya: artillery support, drone strikes and river crossing" with video, explicitly stating intent for territorial gain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky claims UAF in Kamyshevakha are in a "fire bag" after Zaporizhzhia "liberation," implying successful territorial control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
"Два майора" posts video of a homemade drone with explosives, indicating continued tactical efforts to achieve gains on the Zaporizhzhia front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RF MoD claims "Zaporozhskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) was liberated," a clear intent to claim territorial control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
WarGonzo posts drone video showing an explosive payload, used in tactical engagements to support ground advances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage showing destruction of various UAF military targets, which supports ground operations by degrading UAF defenses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, indicating continued intent to clear and secure territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
Strengthen Strategic Alliances & Bypass Sanctions: Continue high-level diplomatic engagements (e.g., China visit, joint naval patrol) and economic integration (Mir cards in Iran) to reinforce international partnerships and circumvent Western isolation efforts, potentially showcasing military alignment through joint naval patrols. Align with anti-Western sentiments globally (Iran's Ambassador's statement on Gaza). TASS reports Kazakhstan's oil transport, aiming to highlight stable economic ties with partners despite sanctions. TASS reports China's Foreign Ministry states it does not plan to send peacekeepers to Ukraine. RF diplomats preparing a request to Turkey regarding a missing Russian swimmer indicates an intention to engage in routine diplomatic processes even amidst conflict, projecting normalcy or asserting international presence.
UPDATES:
TASS posts on Israeli strikes on a Gaza hospital, which could be used to align with anti-Western sentiments globally. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video of "Russia returned children to the Motherland through the mediation of Qatar," demonstrating an intent to engage with non-Western partners (Qatar) on humanitarian issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Народная милиция ДНР posts video showing delivery of medical equipment, as part of humanitarian aid efforts, to project positive engagement in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kadyrov_95 posts a video on a tactical shooting championship, featuring participants from Russia and "friendly countries" (Kuwait, Bahrain), reinforcing international partnerships. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Divert Attention: Use external events (e.g., Israel-Yemen conflict, Gaza humanitarian situation, internal RF news like Duma proposals for tourism, Zemfira debt, Trump's media statements, search and rescue in Kyrgyzstan, power bank regulations, South Korea-Trump meeting, Medvedev tennis loss, new aviation fees, International Baccalaureate NGO, typhoon in Sanya, phishing links, bus AC) to distract from the conflict in Ukraine. Promote non-military cultural content (Kazakh children singing Russian hit, civilian life videos by "Два майора") to normalize the situation. Новости Москвы reports a new Sber app ("Assets Online") in the App Store, and that sex guides for dogs are banned in Russia, serving as domestic distractions. TASS reports Sber launched contactless payment for iPhone. Новости Москвы reports that temperatures up to +30°C may return to Moscow in the last days of summer. RBC-Ukraine reports the dollar and euro have risen against the hryvnia, a domestic economic issue that can distract. TASS drug lab report serves as a domestic distraction. Fighterbomber showcasing knives is a distraction. Mash на Донбассе video of fatal car crash and Новости Москвы tram video are for domestic consumption and distraction, promoting normalcy. TASS report on solar flare is a purely factual, but diverting, piece of information.
UPDATES:
TASS reports Polish President Karol Nawrocki vetoed a bill extending special status for Ukrainians, which while relevant to the conflict, is a diplomatic event that can also serve as a distraction from direct battlefield news. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Alex Parker Returns amplifies Crocus City Hall narratives, a significant domestic event that can serve as a distraction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports on Mikhail Degtyarev heading the TASS "For Loyalty" award jury, a domestic event used to fill information space and distract. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports on Israeli strikes on a Gaza hospital, a clear diversionary tactic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the detention of a Kursk Oblast deputy governor for embezzlement, an internal news item that serves to distract from front-line failures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Новости Москвы reports on "welders leading the rating of highest-paid professions in Russia." This is a domestic news item that serves as a distraction from the war. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports on new regulations for salaries and working conditions in Russia starting Sept 1st. Domestic news item used to divert attention. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Vladikavkaz airport. Domestic news to divert attention. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Russian tourists stranded in Sanya, China due to typhoon. Domestic news to divert attention. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports court proceedings on Igor Talkov murder case delayed, a domestic news item used as distraction. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS posts video of Putin meeting Grigorenko, discussing combating fraud, serving as IO to distract. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports 15 million Russians used "Gosuslugi" for self-restriction on loans, an IO piece to distract. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
ASTRA reports on journalists killed in Israeli airstrike in Gaza, an RF IO attempt to divert attention. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
ASTRA posts VPN advertisement, which distracts from other conflict-related news by focusing on internal Russian issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for advertisement, MEDIUM for implied demand).
Courses of Action:
MLCOA 1: Intensify Kharkiv Offensive with Multi-Directional Pressure, Enhanced EW, and Massed Glide Bomb/Artillery/Drone Support. RF will continue pressing Vovchansk and Lyptsi, using KABs and drones (Kharkiv threat, Chernihiv threat, Sumy threat moving to Poltava, Donetsk threat, Dnipropetrovsk threat, now including Pavlohradskyi district, and new threats in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, including a new group of UAVs in northern Chernihiv heading south, and two drones attacking Sumy this morning, with new KAB launches on Sumy). Expect continued localized advances near Konstantynivka and continued attention in the Siversk direction. Ganchev's statement is a strong indicator of this intent. Pushilin's claims on Konstantynivka and Dobropillya are direct indicators. The complicated situation in Lyman (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) indicates RF intent to exploit tactical opportunities for advance.
UPDATES:
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims "Russian army advanced to the west of Kupyansk and in Udachne," directly supporting this COA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity.)
Басурин о главном claims a "Geran-2 pinpoint strike on hidden infrastructure" in Sloviansk, supporting this COA with precision strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, MEDIUM for capability, LOW for immediate veracity).
WarGonzo posts a video showing a drone launching an explosive, consistent with tactical support for ground offensives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage showing destruction of various UAF military targets, indicating continued ISR and strike support for ground operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, consistent with continued offensive actions in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
MLCOA 2: Sustain Multi-Axis Ground Pressure and Tactical Engagements on Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Southern Axes, Leveraging FPV Drones, Air-Launched Guided Munitions, and Precision Artillery for Targeted Strikes and Psychological Operations. RF will maintain assaults in Chasiv Yar and other sectors, using KABs (Donetsk) and precision artillery (Krasnoarmeysk). RF will likely attempt to regain ground lost in UAF counterattacks (Novomykhailivka, Pokrovsk area). Claims of FPV drone in Zaporizhzhia, 500 strikes on 13 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (including KABs on Kushuhumska Hromada), and renewed multi-day drone/artillery attacks on Sumy (and FPV drone/artillery attacks on Nikopol) indicate persistent pressure. Maintaining claimed fire control in Kherson (Karantynnyi Island) and committing to infrastructure repair (water supply) for a narrative of effective governance. Expect Saldo and other RF officials to continue to disseminate claims of UAF targeting civilian infrastructure/assets (e.g., ambulances) in Kherson to demonize Ukrainian actions. RF may continue to propagate claims of advances, such as the new claim in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast near Philiia, regardless of veracity. Expect RF to continue fabricating and exaggerating UAF casualty figures, particularly for foreign mercenaries (Luhansk claim). Expect RF to continue to conduct strikes against UAF C2 and equipment (UAV control post destruction claim). RF will continue to engage UAF infantry, as claimed near Vovcha River. ISW maps confirm RF is advancing along the entire front and UAF success near Pokrovsk. RF may also utilize demining equipment (MT-10 "Stalker") to support advances or clear defensive areas, particularly in prepared defensive zones. Kotsnews video is an attempt to signal territorial gain in Dnipropetrovsk. Colonelcassad's claim of HQ destruction in Kramatorsk indicates continued focus on high-value targets. Воин DV and "Сливочный каприз" posts claiming territorial gains in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia indicate continued ground pressure and attempts to seize and declare new territory. Pushilin's claims on Konstantynivka and Dobropillya reinforce this. Colonelcassad and "Два майора" post photo and video claiming control over Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), reinforcing territorial claims. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims an RF strike on the HQ of the 42nd Brigade in Preobrazhenka, supporting efforts to degrade UAF command. TASS claims Southern Grouping of Forces destroyed a UAF ammunition depot in the Konstantynivka direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports RF forces struck gas infrastructure in Ukraine, near Dikanka (Poltava Oblast). Narodная милиция ДНР posts drone footage claiming the destruction of a UAF pickup truck near Novy Ekonomycheskoye. Два майора posts a video claiming the destruction of a building with UAF personnel in Burgunka, Kherson Oblast, using FABs. Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны claim "Liberation of Filiya" and Воин DV claim destruction of 3 UAF armored vehicles are new examples of such claims and actions.
UPDATES:
MoD Russia claims "Liberating Filiya: artillery support, drone strikes and river crossing" with video, a direct example of this COA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity of "liberation").
TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky claims UAF in Kamyshevakha are in a "fire bag" after Zaporizhzhia "liberation," consistent with tactical engagements and psychological operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
"Два майора" posts video of a homemade drone with explosives on "Zaporizhzhia Front," demonstrating continued tactical engagements with improvised munitions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for use of such drones, MEDIUM for the depicted combat scenario as recent).
Colonelcassad posts video titled "The finale of the 'blitzkrieg': UAF buried their myths near Novomykhailivka," indicating continued RF attempts to attack UAF defensive positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO framing, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat).
RF MoD claims "Zaporozhskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) was liberated," a clear example of claiming territorial gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
WarGonzo posts a drone video showing an explosive payload, indicative of continued tactical drone strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage showing destruction of various UAF military targets, which supports ground operations by degrading UAF defenses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian DRG activity in Kherson, which will be met with RF counter-efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity).
МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video of "caravan of high-tech donkeys," indicating logistical support for frontline operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for video, MEDIUM for "high-tech" interpretation, LOW for specific timeframe).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, consistent with maintaining pressure and attempting to gain ground. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
Colonelcassad posts video of soldiers requesting a quad bike, indicating localized efforts to enhance logistical and operational capabilities for ground engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
MLCOA 3: Intensify Information Operations Targeting Ukrainian Morale, Western Cohesion, Justifying RF Actions, and Diverting Attention. This will include exploiting alleged UAF strikes in Belgorod/Moscow/Smolensk/Bryansk/other RF regions, publishing cynical propaganda (Zaporizhzhia Independence Day), highlighting successful RF air defense (nine UAVs shot down plus two targeting Moscow, Lipetsk air alert (now lifted), seven over Smolensk, 21 overnight including 6 over Bryansk), claiming destruction of UAF equipment, portraying Ukraine as a European hegemon, exploiting diplomatic friction with allies (e.g., Hungary, Germany's welfare system, US-France diplomatic spat, Trump/US media, RBC-Ukraine report on anti-Ukrainian forces, Merz's statement from TASS, Colonelcassad's quote of Merz, Zaluzhny/Vance spat, and the Polish veto of Ukrainian aid, and new Polish citizenship conditions), discrediting captured UAF personnel, narratives of RF military heroism (Pirozhenko, Hyacinth commander, Ka-52 Commander), showcasing public support for military efforts, promoting cultural influence (Kazakh children singing Russian hit, 'Culture of DNR' video), and leveraging military ties with China (Beijing parade, joint naval patrol). RF will also continue efforts to control domestic information (e.g., "dangerous content" restrictions, Duma proposal for tourism, trivial news like Zemfira debt, search/rescue in Kyrgyzstan, power bank regulations, South Korea-Trump meeting, Medvedev tennis loss, new aviation fees, International Baccalaureate NGO, phishing, bus AC, personal data suppression) and amplify internal security responses (Moscow explosion, UAV attacks on Moscow and Smolensk), and disseminate localized disinformation campaigns to discredit UAF authorities in Kherson (forest burning, evacuee corruption, ambulances destroyed) and Zaporizhzhia (evacuation refusal) while presenting efforts to restore services (Kherson water supply) as effective governance. Expect new narratives accusing UAF of destroying civilian infrastructure/humanitarian aid (ambulances) and general psychological operations targeting the Ukrainian population, including expansion of milblogger channels to new platforms, leveraging foreign media (China Daily) and staging diplomatic claims (Moskalova). Expect normalization of conflict (cat on ammo boxes, civilian-focused videos by "Два майора", #ДЕНЬвИСТОРИИ posts, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 military personnel video, Bazarov detention, "Два майора" migratory policy post, Sber app, dog sex guides ban, Kursk school security), and recruitment/morale boosting (Airborne brotherhood posts including military ceremonies, Архангел Спецназа general messages, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники bot). Expect TASS to continue highlighting individual soldier prowess (Hyacinth commander claim). Новости Москвы on Russian exceptionalism as an IO. Операция Z claims UAF Yak-52 are trying to shoot down 'Gerans' to mock UAF. Colonelcassad claims destruction of Ukrainian battalion HQ in Kramatorsk. Expect RF to continue to attempt to undermine Western resolve (e.g., "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" post). Expect RF to use claims of UK preparing for mass deaths to suggest Western weakness. Expect RF to reinforce domestic hardline policies through milblogger platforms (e.g., "Два майора" on migratory policy). Expect Военкор Котенок to continue to vocalize threats against Zelenskyy. Expect RF to leverage internal affairs like the detention of Vladimir Bazarov as a distraction or to project internal control. Expect RF to continue to use claims of civilian injury from UAF shelling (Shebekino) to portray UAF as aggressive. Expect RF to highlight alleged internal Ukrainian dissent ("Операция Z" post) and perceived internal RF weaknesses ("Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" political cartoon) as part of their IO. Expect RF milbloggers to continue fundraising efforts (e.g., "Два майора"). Expect ARKHANGEL SPETSNZAZA posts and WarGonzo/Sever.Realii reports. Expect Ganchev to continue denying UAF counterattacks. Expect TASS to claim Russia-Europe relations will not be the same. Expect Старше Эдды to use memes for IO. Expect TASS to claim SBU involvement in Nord Stream sabotage. Expect Colonelcassad to claim UAF police brutality and subsequent death. Expect TASS to report a "neo-Nazi" from The Times is threatening Zelenskyy. Expect МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники to post on mother dying on son's grave. Expect Рыбарь to post "Conscription Returns" graphic. Expect Басурин о главном video (APC flags) to be amplified. Expect Старше Эдды to advocate for judging based on political beliefs. Операция Z Filiya claim and Воин DV Novosiolovka claim contribute to narratives of RF success. Kotsnews comments on Hungary-Ukraine tensions.
UPDATES:
TASS reports Polish President Karol Nawrocki vetoed a bill extending special status for Ukrainians, a key development for RF IO to exploit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports on the Investigative Committee opening a case against a Ukrainian militant in Kursk, directly supporting RF's criminalization and justification narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Alex Parker Returns amplifies Crocus City Hall narratives, focusing on religious/ethnic angles, serving as divisive IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Басурин о главном claims a Geran-2 strike in Sloviansk, serving to project RF military effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video (described above) likely framed as RF IO, continuing efforts to demoralize and divide. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
TASS posts on Israeli strikes on a Gaza hospital, continuing to divert attention and align with anti-Western narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the detention of a Kursk Oblast deputy governor for embezzlement, which RF will try to spin as internal accountability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
MoD Russia posts a video "Liberating Filiya," a major IO push for territorial gains and military success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Рыбарь posts "Bomb in an Icon" video, amplifying the narrative of Ukrainian sabotage in Crimea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
Colonelcassad posts a graphic on Ukraine's public debt, continuing IO to highlight financial weakness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video of "Russia returned children to the Motherland through the mediation of Qatar," an IO piece to portray Russia as a humanitarian actor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky claims UAF in Kamyshevakha are in a "fire bag," amplifying RF claims of success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
"Два майора" posts video of a woman on a tank, likely a humanizing or morale-boosting IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports on Mikhail Degtyarev heading the TASS "For Loyalty" award jury, used for domestic normalization. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports the need to toughen punishment for disseminating Russians' personal data, indicating ongoing internal information control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Poland's President proposed stricter conditions for obtaining Polish citizenship, including denying it to those sympathizing with "Bandera ideology." This is a significant RF IO piece to amplify divisions between Poland and Ukraine and appeal to anti-Ukrainian sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Новости Москвы reports on "welders leading the rating of highest-paid professions in Russia," a domestic news item that supports the narrative of internal economic strength and normalcy. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Народная милиция ДНР posts video showing delivery of medical equipment, framed as humanitarian aid, to support narrative of positive engagement in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
TASS reports on new regulations for salaries and working conditions in Russia starting Sept 1st. Domestic news to show government functionality. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Vladikavkaz airport. Domestic news related to air travel, likely a weather-related or operational issue. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Russian tourists stranded in Sanya, China due to typhoon. Domestic news focusing on citizen welfare. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kadyrov_95 posts a video on a tactical shooting championship, showcasing military prowess and international ties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Janus Putkonen (Finnish pro-RF source) posts about Finnish President Stubb's statements "not spreading well," aiming to highlight perceived Western disunity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
"Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" rhetorical question (What else can the military do besides kill?) may be intended to provoke discussion or present a more complex image of military personnel. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Alex Parker Returns posts an image claiming a Russian student was fined for a meme with a swastika, an RF IO attempt to project strength in controlling extremism and to deter similar acts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Sever.Realii reports on bookstores warned about "foreign agent" books, indicating continued efforts to control information and narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports court proceedings on Igor Talkov murder case delayed, a domestic news item used as distraction, while showing judicial system is functioning. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad posts about "people stealing" in Ukraine, an IO piece attempting to portray Ukraine negatively and highlight perceived instability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts that "Western dominance is ending, Ukraine conflict shifts balance," a clear RF IO piece promoting a narrative of global shift in power. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Басурин о главном posts a video "Dark shadow over 'Druzhba': Hungary in a trap of political blackmail," explicitly intending to sow discord between Ukraine and its allies and exploit energy security concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Воин DV states "Canada is seriously getting involved for Ukraine," intending to portray Western overreach and potential negative consequences for allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
ASTRA reports on journalists killed in Israeli airstrike in Gaza, an RF IO attempt to divert attention from Ukraine and align with anti-Western narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video with Zelenskyy discussing "Druzhba" pipeline strikes, an RF IO attempt to frame Ukrainian actions negatively regarding critical infrastructure and to highlight perceived Ukrainian leader's indifference. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO framing, MEDIUM for actual content).
РБК-Україна reports Polish President vetoed social assistance for Ukrainians, which RF will amplify to show diminishing Western support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Zelenskyy announces US-Ukraine meeting for negotiations with Russia, which RF will likely try to frame to their advantage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
MLCOA 4: Prioritize Counter-ISR and Counter-UAV Measures, while Continuing Strategic Strikes and Tactical Air Support. RF will continue to attempt to degrade UAF drone capabilities and respond to UAF deep strikes with its own air and drone attacks, including active drone-on-drone combat and the declaration of air alert regimes in border regions/internal territories (including Moscow and Lipetsk, which has now been lifted). Expect continued use of ballistic missiles from the south (now east), although the current threat has been lifted. RF will also continue to promote the effectiveness of individual soldiers against UAV threats. Операция Z's claim about UAF Yak-52s attempts to highlight RF counter-UAV capabilities. Expect RF to continue to report high numbers of UAF UAVs shot down overnight, as per "Военкор Котенок" (23 UAVs). Colonelcassad reports 21 Ukrainian UAVs of aircraft type were intercepted and destroyed overnight. Expect further strikes on logistical complexes (Tatarstan) and gas infrastructure (Poltava). Expect Narodная милиция ДНР to report on successful targeting of UAF equipment. Sever.Realii reports 104 Shahed and imitator drones launched by RF.
UPDATES:
Басурин о главном claims a "Geran-2 pinpoint strike on hidden infrastructure" in Sloviansk, consistent with strategic strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, MEDIUM for capability).
"Два майора" posts video of a homemade drone with explosives, indicating continued use of drones for tactical strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
WarGonzo posts a drone video showing an explosive payload, indicative of continued tactical drone strikes and counter-ISR efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage showing destruction of various UAF military targets (including a 'Baba Yaga' drone), indicating continued counter-UAV efforts and ISR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, showcasing the effectiveness of RF forces against Ukrainian combatants. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
MLCOA 5: Scale Up "Shahed" Drone Production and Deployment for Strategic Strikes. The continuing widespread drone activity, particularly the sustained multi-day attack on Sumy and new threats in Dnipropetrovsk and new alerts for Chernihiv and Sumy (including a new group of UAVs in northern Chernihiv heading south, and two drones attacking Sumy this morning, with new KAB launches on Sumy and Donetsk). FPV drone attacks on Nikopol also demonstrate this. New reports confirm 104 Shahed and imitator UAVs were launched overnight. Expect continued KAB launches on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. Expect Два майора to report on destruction of UAF positions using FABs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATES:
Басурин о главном claims a "Geran-2 pinpoint strike on hidden infrastructure" in Sloviansk, indicating continued use of attack drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, MEDIUM for capability).
"Два майора" posts video of a homemade drone with explosives, demonstrating continued improvised drone use. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
WarGonzo posts a drone video showing an explosive payload, indicative of continued tactical drone strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage showing destruction of various UAF military targets, which may include FPV drone capabilities against ground targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, consistent with using combined arms (implied) in offensive operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
MLCOA 6: Continue High-Level Diplomatic and Economic Engagement with Non-Western Allies to Reinforce Strategic Partnerships and Supplement Logistical Needs. RF will continue to utilize high-level diplomatic visits and economic initiatives with strategic partners like China and Iran (Mir cards) to bolster its international position and circumvent Western isolation efforts, potentially showcasing military alignment through joint naval patrols. RF will also continue to publicize supplementary logistical support from civil society organizations to frontline units. RF will likely seek to leverage existing or manufactured diplomatic friction within the West. Expect RF to highlight stable economic relations with partners, as exemplified by Kazakhstan's oil transport. Expect China to maintain its current stance of not sending peacekeepers to Ukraine, which RF can spin as supporting its non-intervention narrative. RF diplomats preparing a request to Turkey regarding a missing swimmer indicates continued engagement on routine diplomatic matters.
UPDATES:
TASS posts on Israeli strikes on a Gaza hospital, which could be used to align with anti-Western sentiments globally. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video of "Russia returned children to the Motherland through the mediation of Qatar," demonstrating engagement with non-Western partners. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Народная милиция ДНР posts video showing delivery of medical equipment, as part of humanitarian aid efforts, to project positive engagement in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kadyrov_95 posts a video on a tactical shooting championship, featuring participants from Russia and "friendly countries" (Kuwait, Bahrain), reinforcing strategic partnerships. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
MLCOA 7: Maintain Internal Security and Recruitment to Counter Domestic Threats. RF will continue to address internal security incidents (e.g., Moscow explosion, UAV attacks on Moscow, Smolensk, Bryansk and other RF regions) and conduct recruitment drives for law enforcement (Khabarovsk) and military (Airborne brotherhood posts including military ceremonies, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video of military personnel, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники bot) to maintain internal stability and security. RF may also implement legislative responses to internal security/safety (Duma proposal for tourism, power bank regulations, new aviation fees). RF will also continue efforts to control internal information by targeting NGOs like International Baccalaureate and suppressing illegal personal data distribution. Expect RF to continue internal security measures and potentially purges, as indicated by the detention of Vladimir Bazarov. Expect RF to continue to propagate narratives of Ukrainian sabotage plots (Crimea bomb plot) to justify internal security measures. Expect RF to highlight domestic issues (healthcare shortage, as per "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" political cartoon) for internal consumption or to distract. Expect intensified judicial action against alleged traitors (Kharkiv life imprisonment case). Expect continued use of domestic economic news (currency fluctuations, Sber app) and weather reports (Moscow heat) as distractions. Expect TASS to continue reporting on FSB operations against drug labs. Expect TASS to claim SBU involvement in sabotage. Expect Colonelcassad to report on incidents related to mobilization. Mash на Донnобассе video of fatal car crash, Новости Москвы tram video, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники post on mother dying on son's grave, and Рыбарь's "Conscription Returns" graphic all fall under this COA, shaping domestic narratives and recruitment. Старше Эдды's advocacy for judging based on political beliefs also reflects efforts to tighten internal control.
UPDATES:
TASS reports on the Investigative Committee opening a case against a Ukrainian militant in Kursk, reflecting internal security priorities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the detention of a Kursk Oblast deputy governor for embezzlement of fortifications funds, directly reflecting internal security and anti-corruption efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Рыбарь posts "Bomb in an Icon" video, reflecting internal security efforts and their associated IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
TASS reports the need to toughen punishment for disseminating Russians' personal data, reflecting ongoing internal information control and security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Новости Москвы reports on "welders leading the rating of highest-paid professions in Russia," a domestic news item that supports the narrative of internal economic strength and normalcy, potentially encouraging skilled labor. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports on new regulations for salaries and working conditions in Russia starting Sept 1st. Domestic news to show government functionality and maintain internal stability. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Vladikavkaz airport. Domestic news related to air travel, likely a weather-related or operational issue. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Russian tourists stranded in Sanya, China due to typhoon. Domestic news focusing on citizen welfare. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kadyrov_95 posts a video on a tactical shooting championship, showcasing military prowess and training, which contributes to internal security and professionalization of forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Alex Parker Returns posts an image claiming a Russian student was fined for a meme with a swastika, consistent with internal security efforts to control extremist content. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
Sever.Realii reports on bookstores warned about "foreign agent" books, consistent with internal security efforts to control information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS posts video of Putin meeting Grigorenko, discussing combating fraud, showing leadership's focus on internal stability. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports 15 million Russians used "Gosuslugi" for self-restriction on loans, reflecting efforts to manage internal financial security. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video of "caravan of high-tech donkeys," which, while showing improvisation, contributes to the narrative of sustained effort in the face of challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for video, MEDIUM for "high-tech" interpretation, LOW for specific timeframe).
MLCOA 8: Increase Naval Mine Deployment in Black Sea. RF will likely continue to deploy naval mines in the Black Sea, particularly near Ukrainian coastal areas, to impede maritime traffic and threaten Ukrainian ports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
MDCOA 1: Operational Breakthrough in Kharkiv, Targeting Major Ukrainian Logistical Hubs or Encirclement of UAF Elements, Combined with Mass Mobilization. A successful link-up between the Vovchansk and Lyptsi axes could lead to the encirclement of forward Ukrainian units, establish a significant salient south of the international border, and threaten major logistical hubs. This would be supported by increased use of MLRS, tactical glide bombs, and drone swarms, and potentially by the active deployment of demining equipment (MT-10 "Stalker") to breach UAF defenses. This could also involve the increased use of special forces in river crossing operations, as claimed by Воин DV.
Reasoning: The confirmed new axis of advance and high intensity of attacks in Kharkiv present the immediate conditions. The widespread drone threats across multiple oblasts indicate a potential for coordinated multi-domain pressure. The showcase of heavy demining equipment further indicates capability to overcome prepared defenses. The Воин DV claim, even if exaggerated, points to special forces capabilities for targeted ground engagements. Ganchev's explicit statement about liberating Kharkiv before a ceasefire elevates the perceived intent for a decisive breakthrough. The new RF claims on Konstantynivka and Dobropillya, and milbloggers claims on Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk) and Великая Новосёлка - Запорожское, and now also from Colonelcassad/"Два майора," indicate strong and vocal intent for territorial gains which could coalesce into an operational breakthrough. Bad weather warnings (Kharkiv Oblast) may complicate but not prevent this COA; RF may attempt to exploit reduced visibility or ground conditions if UAF is unprepared. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports further indicate the ongoing operational intensity. The most recent claims from Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны regarding "Liberation of Filiya" and Воин DV regarding destruction of UAF vehicles, if verified, would indicate a high pace of RF operations. The complicated situation in Lyman (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) indicates a potential for RF to press a breakthrough.
UPDATES:
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims "Russian army advanced to the west of Kupyansk and in Udachne," which, if true, indicates efforts to create multiple breakthroughs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity.)
MoD Russia claims "Liberating Filiya: artillery support, drone strikes and river crossing" with video. While focused on Dnipropetrovsk, a successful advance there could contribute to an operational breakthrough on a larger front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity of "liberation").
TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky claims UAF in Kamyshevakha are in a "fire bag" after Zaporizhzhia "liberation," indicating potential for encirclement in other areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
RF MoD claims "Zaporozhskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) was liberated," contributing to this narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
WarGonzo posts a drone video showing an explosive payload, indicative of tactical support for ground breakthroughs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage showing destruction of various UAF military targets, which would enable ground breakthroughs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming "Otvazhny" forces are destroying militants in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, directly supporting the potential for a breakthrough. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat, LOW for veracity).
MDCOA 2: Sustained High-Volume, Precision Strikes Against Critical UAF Command & Control (C2) Nodes, Key Air Defense Assets, and Full-Scale Attacks on Multiple Nuclear Power Plants, Preceding a Major Air Offensive. RF may commit significant resources to degrade UAF's ability to coordinate and defend, potentially using a higher volume of ballistic and hypersonic missiles and full-scale attacks on NPPs or other highly sensitive civilian infrastructure.
Reasoning: Demonstrated RF deep strike capabilities, the critical role of C2/air defense, and the stated intent for increased drone production create conditions for this. The claims of destroying UAF UAV control posts and the HQ of the 42nd Brigade reinforce this intention. The use of 104 UAVs overnight demonstrates capability for high-volume attacks. Colonelcassad's claim of HQ destruction in Kramatorsk indicates continued focus on high-value targets. Recent strikes on the Tatarstan logistical complex and Poltava gas infrastructure demonstrate RF's capability and intent to hit critical infrastructure far from the front. The new ballistic missile threat from the East further highlights this capability.
UPDATES:
Басурин о главном claims a "Geran-2 pinpoint strike on hidden infrastructure" in Sloviansk, consistent with a strategy of precision strikes against critical infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, MEDIUM for capability, LOW for immediate veracity).
Alex Parker Returns posts video of "Novoshakhtinsky Oil Refinery continuing to burn for the fifth consecutive day," while on RF territory, this demonstrates the vulnerability of energy infrastructure to deep strikes, which UAF can also exploit and RF will likely attempt to counter. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for fire and duration, MEDIUM for precise location).
РБК-Україна reports destruction in Pishchane, Sumy Oblast, from an RF attack. This highlights the vulnerability of civilian infrastructure to RF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts drone footage showing destruction of various UAF military targets, including communications equipment, which supports targeting C2 nodes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Zelenskyy states Russia is attempting to disrupt winter preparations through energy infrastructure strikes, which aligns with this MDCOA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
MDCOA 3: Escalated Covert Operations and Hybrid Tactics Targeting Critical Infrastructure within NATO Member States or Ukraine, Accompanied by Intense False-Flag Disinformation Campaigns, or State-Sponsored Terrorism, to Deter Western Support. RF may increase sabotage efforts against energy, transportation, and telecommunications infrastructure, within Ukraine and potentially in border regions of NATO member states, coupled with aggressive disinformation and attempts to sow discord among allies. This is especially pertinent given RF's attempts to exploit diplomatic rifts (Hungary, Germany, US-France, Trump/US media, RBC-Ukraine report on anti-Ukrainian forces), its continued focus on "energy security" narratives, and the new claims of negotiations (Moskalova). The Moscow explosion and UAV attacks on Moscow and Smolensk, whether an internal incident or not, highlight the vulnerability of domestic infrastructure and could serve as a pretext for RF escalation or accusations. TASS claims of civilian injury in Belgorod from UAF shelling, and the alleged Crimea sabotage plot by the SBU, may be used as pretexts for such escalation. Naval mines near Odesa also present a hybrid threat. The TASS report on Kuznetsov's alleged continued sabotage activities for SBU further fuels this narrative.
Reasoning: RF's history of hybrid warfare, its continued use of false-flag narratives (Belgorod/Moscow/Smolensk/Bryansk/other RF regions claims, Starshaya Eddy's post), the exploitation of diplomatic friction, and new claims of negotiations make this a viable escalation path, potentially leveraging the "energy security" narrative. The Moscow explosion and UAV attacks add another layer of complexity to internal and external threats, potentially used as justification for "retaliatory" measures. The accidental child fatality in Kyiv Oblast could also be exploited for such purposes by RF. RF's internal crackdown, as exemplified by the detention of Bazarov, and rhetoric like "Два майора" on migratory policy, may increase internal pressure leading to more aggressive external actions. The most recent claims of UAF shelling civilians and sabotage plots by Ukrainian special services reinforce this MDCOA. The naval mines near Odesa are a clear example of hybrid tactics affecting critical infrastructure/shipping. The TASS Prozorov claim further supports this MDCOA. The TASS "neo-Nazi" claim and Старше Эдды's advocacy for politically-motivated legal action also contribute to a climate that could justify such operations.
UPDATES:
TASS reports Polish President Karol Nawrocki vetoed a bill extending special status for Ukrainians, which RF can exploit to portray Western disunity and justify more aggressive actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
TASS reports the Investigative Committee opened a case against a Ukrainian militant in Kursk Oblast, framing Ukrainian actions as terrorism, which could serve as a pretext for "retaliatory" hybrid attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
Alex Parker Returns amplifies Crocus City Hall narratives, a significant domestic security event that could be used to justify heightened internal security or external action. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video featuring a man recounting alleged mistreatment, beatings, and eventual execution by "Dudka" and "Batrak" after being captured in Ukraine, followed by claims of his own mistreatment by Ukrainian authorities for PTSD. This is likely an RF IO piece aiming to demoralize UAF and portray internal brutality. This type of narrative could be used to justify extreme measures or hybrid operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO, LOW for veracity).
Рыбарь posts "Bomb in an Icon" video, amplifying the narrative of Ukrainian sabotage in Crimea, directly supporting this MDCOA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO).
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the detention of a Kursk Oblast deputy governor for embezzlement related to fortifications, highlighting internal vulnerabilities that could be exploited by covert actors or serve as a narrative for RF's own internal security focus. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports Poland's President proposed stricter conditions for obtaining Polish citizenship, including denying it to those sympathizing with "Bandera ideology." This RF IO piece aligns with hybrid tactics to sow discord. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
"Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a video claiming UAF DRG entered Russian rear in Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, indicating UAF's own capability for covert ops, which RF will interpret as justification for escalating its hybrid tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF IO, LOW for immediate verification).
Басурин о главном posts the same "Bomb in an Icon" video as Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны, reinforcing the narrative of Ukrainian sabotage and justifying RF internal security measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF IO).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian DRG activity in Kherson. Such activity, if verified by RF, could be used as a pretext for escalated covert operations or false-flag attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF claim as IO, LOW for immediate veracity).
Басурин о главном posts a video "Dark shadow over 'Druzhba': Hungary in a trap of political blackmail," directly attempting to use hybrid tactics to destabilize relations and apply pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO).
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
Next 24 Hours (IMMEDIATE):
RF Kharkiv Offensive (Intensified): High probability of continued, intense Russian ground assaults on Vovchansk and Lyptsi, supported by massed glide bombs, active EW, artillery shelling (Giatsint-B in Sever Group of Forces' AOR), and further drone attacks (Kharkiv threat, Chernihiv threat, Sumy threat moving to Poltava, Donetsk threat, Dnipropetrovsk threat including Pavlohradskyi district, and new threats in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, including a new group of UAVs in northern Chernihiv heading south, and two drones attacking Sumy this morning, with new KAB launches on Sumy and Donetsk). Expect continued localized advances near Konstantynivka and continued attention in the Siversk direction, including the Lyman area where the situation has complicated. Expect RF to continue claiming advances west of Kupiansk and in Udachne. (DECISION POINT: UAF operational commands to immediately reinforce defensive lines in Vovchansk and Lyptsi with additional reserves, counter-EW measures, SHORAD, and anti-armor assets. Bolster night surveillance capabilities. Monitor weather in Kharkiv Oblast for potential impact on operations and adjust accordingly. Reinforce Lyman defenses as well. Evaluate recent successes in repelling 10 assaults in Kursk/Sumy directions to apply lessons learned. Verify RF claims of advances in Kupiansk/Udachne.)
RF Diplomatic/IO Offensive (Aggressive): High probability of continued aggressive RF diplomatic statements and intensified information operations, including claims of UAF military setbacks, exploiting alleged UAF strikes on Belgorod/Moscow/Smolensk/Bryansk/other RF regions civilians, undermining national morale (Zaporizhzhia Independence Day propaganda), efforts to divide Western allies (e.g., exploiting Hungary-Ukraine diplomatic friction, Germany's welfare, US-France diplomatic spat, Trump/US media, RBC-Ukraine report on anti-Ukrainian forces, Merz's statement from TASS, Colonelcassad's quote of Merz, Zaluzhny/Vance spat, and the Polish veto of Ukrainian aid, and new Polish citizenship conditions), discrediting captured UAF personnel, narratives of RF military heroism (Pirozhenko, Hyacinth commander, Ka-52 Commander), showcasing public support for military efforts, promoting cultural influence (Kazakh children singing Russian hit, 'Culture of DNR' video), and leveraging military ties with China (Beijing parade, joint naval patrol), and diverting attention to other global conflicts (Yemen, Gaza, Israel-Gaza, Crocus City Hall narratives, search/rescue in Kyrgyzstan, power bank regulations, South Korea-Trump meeting, Medvedev tennis loss, new aviation fees, International Baccalaureate NGO, typhoon in Sanya, personal data suppression, loan payments, solar flare, domestic tram news, California wildfires). Expect continued high-level diplomatic engagement with non-Western partners (e.g. China, Iran). RF will likely control narratives around the Moscow explosion and UAV attacks and promote domestic stability measures (content restriction, police recruitment, Duma proposals for tourism, trivial news like Zemfira debt, search/rescue in Kyrgyzstan, power bank regulations, South Korea-Trump meeting, Medvedev tennis loss, new aviation fees, International Baccalaureate NGO, phishing, bus AC, personal data suppression, loan payments, solar flare, domestic tram news, California wildfires, Airborne brotherhood posts, cat on ammo boxes, "Два майора" civilian videos, #ДЕНЬвИСТОРИИ posts, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 military personnel video, Bazarov detention, "Два майора" migratory policy post, Sber app, dog sex guides ban, Kursk school security, welders leading professions, new labor regulations, Vladikavkaz flight restrictions, Sanya typhoon, Kadyrov_95 championship, Janus Putkonen on Stubb, "Триколор" Akhmat question), and disseminate new localized disinformation (Kherson forest burning, evacuee corruption, ambulances destroyed, Zaporizhzhia evacuation refusal) while presenting efforts to restore services (Kherson water supply) as effective governance (e.g., medical aid delivery by Narodnaya Militsia DNR). Expect the RF claim of advance in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast near Philiia, supported by video, to be widely propagated. Expect RF to continue fabricating and exaggerating UAF casualty figures, particularly for foreign mercenaries (Luhansk claim). Expect RF to leverage foreign media (China Daily) to promote its diplomatic narratives and use staged diplomatic claims (Moskalova). RF will also likely highlight claims of UAF UAV control post destruction and Iran Ambassador's statement. RF will also claim engagements with UAF infantry (Воин DV). RF will continue to use Новости Москвы on Russian exceptionalism, Kotsnews video, Операция Z on Yak-52, and Colonelcassad on HQ destruction as IO. Expect RF to continue using claims of civilian injury (Shebekino) and sabotage plots (Crimea) to frame UAF as aggressive/terrorist. Expect RF to highlight alleged internal Ukrainian dissent ("Операция Z" post) and perceived internal RF weaknesses ("Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" political cartoon) as part of their IO. Expect RF milbloggers to continue fundraising efforts (e.g., "Два майора"). Expect ARKHANGEL SPETSNZAZA posts and WarGonzo/Sever.Realii reports. Expect Ganchev to continue denying UAF counterattacks. Expect TASS to claim Russia-Europe relations will not be the same. Expect Старше Эдды to use memes for IO. Expect TASS to claim SBU involvement in Nord Stream sabotage. Expect Colonelcassad to claim UAF police brutality and subsequent death. Expect TASS to report a "neo-Nazi" from The Times is threatening Zelenskyy. Expect МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники to post on mother dying on son's grave. Expect Рыбарь to post "Conscription Returns" graphic. Expect Басурин о главном video (APC flags) to be amplified. Expect Старше Эдды to advocate for judging based on political beliefs. Операция Z Filiya claim and Воин DV Novosiolovka claim contribute to narratives of RF success. Kotsnews comments on Hungary-Ukraine tensions. Expect RF to amplify the arrest of a Ukrainian militant in Kursk and the detention of the Kursk Oblast deputy governor for embezzlement. (DECISION POINT: UAF public affairs and strategic communications to immediately counter RF narratives with verified information, highlight RF's destabilization attempts, and reaffirm national unity and international support. Immediately refute specific disinformation and expose RF efforts to fuel ethnic hatred and sow discord among allies, including direct refutations of RF manipulation of diplomatic exchanges, such as Sybiha's clear response to Hungary. Prepare counter-narratives for RF claims in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, including specific refutations of claims about ambulance destruction and evacuation refusals. Capitalize on reports of internal RF incidents like the Moscow explosion, UAV attacks, and the detention of Vladimir Bazarov to highlight RF vulnerabilities and internal struggles. Actively promote positive international support, such as Merz outlining security guarantees and German FM's statements, and the arrival of Norway's PM, and the Romanian delegation visit, and President Zelenskyy's meeting with Norwegian PM. Immediately refute the RF claim of advance in Dnipropetrovsk with verifiable evidence, leveraging the UAF General Staff's contradictory report, and counter milblogger claims on Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk and Великая Новосёлка - Запорожское, as well as Konstantynivka/Dobropillya. Immediately counter RF diplomatic claims (China Daily) and staged negotiations claims (Moskalova) with factual rebuttals. Immediately refute exaggerated UAF casualty claims (Luhansk). Actively leverage ISW maps for objective battlefield assessment. Publicize RF casualty figures and UAF successes in Pokrovsk. Counter claims of UAF UAV control post destruction and exaggerated individual soldier successes. Counter Iran Ambassador's statement as RF IO. Actively refute Kotsnews video, Новости Москвы on Russian exceptionalism, Операция Z on Yak-52, and Colonelcassad on HQ destruction. Counter "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" post, Военкоры Русской Весны (Операция Z) post on UK morgues, and Военкор Котенок's explicit threat against Zelenskyy. Leverage the Ukraine-Lithuania defense cooperation and "Long Neptune" missile reveal to project strength. Counter RF narratives on healthcare shortages by highlighting UAF resilience. Utilize the "Rubizh" Brigade fundraising to show public solidarity. Counter ARKHANGEL SPETSNZAZA, WarGonzo, and Sever.Realii reports as IO. Counter TASS "neo-Nazi" claim, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники post on mother's death, Рыбарь's conscription graphic, Басурин о главном APC video, Старше Эдды's political beliefs advocacy, and Kotsnews' comments on Hungary-Ukraine. Utilize Oleg Syniehubov's transfer of evacuation drones to highlight UAF care for troops. Actively counter RF narratives regarding internal divisions in Ukraine as promoted by Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition. Highlight internal RF corruption issues as reported by Офіс Генерального прокурора. Leverage the report of 48% of IT specialists wanting to leave Ukraine to highlight the human cost of the war and RF's actions. Amplify UAF recruitment efforts like КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno's UAV operator call, and the HUR MOD 'Ghosts' video. Amplify UAF morale pieces like the veteran entrepreneurship story and the Bosphorus swim. Actively highlight UAF unit identities and morale, as with the Marine Corps photo and paratrooper video. Publicize captured RF soldier videos (e.g., Vladislav Shildyaev) as UAF counter-IO. Refute RF claims of "fire bag" in Kamyshevakha and "liberation" of Zaporizhzhia with factual reporting. Counter the "Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" rhetorical question with evidence of UAF humanitarian and reconstruction efforts. Counter Alex Parker Returns' IO regarding the Russian student and swastika meme. Counter Sever.Realii's report on "foreign agent" books by emphasizing freedom of speech. Utilize Zelenskyy's statement on energy infrastructure attacks to rally support. Frame RF logistical improvisation (donkeys) as a sign of weakness. Leverage new MRI scanner in Dnipropetrovsk as a sign of resilience. Prepare for RF framing of US-Ukraine negotiations.)
Ground Engagements (Persistent, Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia/Kherson): Continued heavy defensive fighting, particularly in Chasiv Yar, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia. RF will likely attempt to regain ground lost in UAF counterattacks (Novomykhailivka, Pokrovsk area, Zelenyi Hai). RF will likely maintain claimed fire control in Kherson, potentially escalating localized engagements there. (DECISION POINT: UAF operational commands to ensure sustained fire support and necessary reserves are allocated to hold defensive lines and consolidate gains from counteroffensives. Monitor Kherson for escalation. Monitor weather in Donetsk for impact on ground operations. Continue tactical successes like the 78th Air Assault Brigade's prisoner capture. Evaluate RF claims of advances in Novopavlivka and Orikhiv and adjust defenses. Be prepared for continued RF pressure in Novomykhailivka and Pokrovsk.)
RF Tactical Drone/KAB/Artillery/Ballistic Strikes (Widespread and Sustained): Expect continued RF tactical FPV drone strikes against UAF military equipment and positions (as per Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Оперативний ЗСУ). High probability of KAB/FAB launches against Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts (including new KAB launches). Expect continued RF reconnaissance UAV activity in northern border regions (Chernihiv, Sumy) and threats in Kharkiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi and Pavlohradskyi districts, including Nikopol), with new alerts for Chernihiv and Sumy (including a new group of UAVs in northern Chernihiv heading south, and two drones attacking Sumy this morning, with new KAB launches on Sumy and Donetsk). Expect further drone attacks and artillery shelling on Sumy (leading to power outages/explosions, casualties) and other northern cities, potentially utilizing precision artillery like Krasnopol shells. The prolonged 11-hour air alert in Chernihiv and Sumy indicates continued high threat. RF will also conduct strikes on Zaporizhzhia Oblast (500 strikes reported including KABs on Kushuhumska Hromada) and FPV drone/artillery attacks on Nikopol. Expect emergency power outages in Poltava Oblast. Overnight, 104 Shahed and imitator UAVs were launched, indicating this high volume will continue. Expect strikes on logistical complexes (Tatarstan) and gas infrastructure (Poltava). Expect Narodная милиция ДНР to report on successful targeting of UAF equipment. Expect Два майора to report on destruction of UAF positions using FABs. Expect Басурин о главном to claim Geran-2 strikes in Sloviansk. (DECISION POINT: UAF frontline units to maintain high alert for FPV drone threats and implement enhanced countermeasures. Air defense commands to prioritize intercepting KAB/FABs and drones, especially in border regions and near critical infrastructure. Emphasize counter-battery fire against precision artillery platforms. Enhance protection for logistical and gas infrastructure. Be prepared for ballistic missile threats, even if alerts are lifted. Continue monitoring the impact of strikes on civilian infrastructure and casualties, as reported by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS. Prioritize defense against air attacks in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.)
RF Internal Air Alerts: Expect continued air alerts in RF border regions and possibly deeper into RF territory (e.g., Moscow, Smolensk, Bryansk) in response to UAF deep strikes. (DECISION POINT: UAF operational commands to assess the impact of these alerts on RF air defense deployment and overall resource allocation.)
Kyiv Internal Security Measures: Expect continued traffic restrictions in central Kyiv, likely related to security concerns or planned events. (DECISION POINT: UAF internal security and traffic management to ensure minimal disruption while maintaining security.)
Black Sea Mine Threat: Expect continued presence and potential new deployments of naval mines near Odesa and other coastal areas. (DECISION POINT: UAF naval forces to maintain heightened vigilance and implement active mine countermeasures; ensure safe passage for maritime traffic.)
Next 48-72 Hours (NEAR-TERM):
RF Retaliatory Strikes (Strategic Depth/Wider Geographic Spread, including "Shahed" surge): Increased probability of RF missile/UAV/aviation strikes against Ukrainian cities or military/industrial targets, potentially including critical energy infrastructure, potentially as "retaliation" for UAV attacks on Moscow/Smolensk/Bryansk/other RF regions, or for claimed civilian injury in Belgorod, or alleged Crimea sabotage plots (as per Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). Expect a wider geographic spread of KAB/FABs and MLRS/artillery/drone fire. (DECISION POINT: UAF air defense commands to maintain maximum readiness, optimize resource allocation for high-value military-industrial, logistical, and critical energy targets. Prioritize air defense for population centers and critical infrastructure against potential "Shahed" swarm attacks.)
Consolidation of UAF Gains/RF Counter-Efforts: UAF will focus on consolidating the recaptured villages in Donetsk, including Novomykhailivka and areas near Pokrovsk and Zelenyi Hai, while RF will likely launch counter-efforts to retake these positions. (DECISION POINT: UAF operational commands to fortify positions, prepare for RF counterattacks, and assess opportunities for further tactical advances.)
Escalated RF Internal Security Measures: Following the Moscow explosion and UAV attacks on Moscow/Smolensk/Bryansk/other RF regions, RF may implement heightened security protocols or initiate investigations that could lead to further internal crackdowns, potentially linked to incidents like the detention of Vladimir Bazarov. RF may also leverage domestic incidents like the Makeevka car crash for distraction. (DECISION POINT: UAF intelligence to monitor RF internal security responses for any impact on troop deployments or resource allocation to the front. Prepare counter-narratives for any RF exploitation of domestic incidents.)
Economic Stabilization Efforts: UAF economic authorities may need to address currency depreciation (RBC-Ukraine report) to maintain public confidence. (DECISION POINT: UAF economic leadership to assess causes and implement measures to stabilize the hryvnia and mitigate economic concerns. Monitor reports like Оперативний ЗСУ's on IT specialist emigration for broader economic stability.)
Legal Measures Regarding Mobilization: Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada may advance legislation regarding male citizens traveling abroad (RBC-Ukraine report). (DECISION POINT: UAF leadership to assess the potential impact of such legislation on manpower and public sentiment. Address internal corruption issues related to mobilization, as reported by Офіс Генерального прокурора.)
Continued Diplomatic Activity: International partners may continue high-level visits to Kyiv (e.g., Norway's PM, Romanian delegation) demonstrating sustained support. RF will continue diplomatic engagement with Turkey regarding the missing swimmer, which could be an opportunity for Ukrainian intelligence to observe RF's diplomatic priorities. (DECISION POINT: UAF diplomatic channels to continue leveraging international support and observing RF diplomatic actions for intelligence gathering. Continue to monitor Chinese statements regarding peacekeepers.)
UAF Long-Range Strike Deployment: With the reveal of the "Long Neptune" missile, UAF may deploy this capability to conduct further deep strikes against RF targets. (DECISION POINT: UAF operational command to assess optimal targets for the "Long Neptune" missile to maximize strategic impact and minimize collateral damage, and prepare for potential RF response.)
US-Ukraine Negotiations Meeting: The announced meeting between Ukrainian and US teams to discuss future negotiations with Russia will be a key diplomatic development. (DECISION POINT: UAF diplomatic channels to prepare negotiation positions, coordinate closely with US counterparts, and ensure public messaging on the meeting is unified and supportive of Ukrainian interests. Monitor RF reactions and IO surrounding this announcement.)
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
6.1. Intelligence Gaps
Veracity of RF Claims: Independent verification (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT) of Voenkor KOTENOK's claims regarding UAF strikes on Belgorod civilians and casualties. Independent verification of Colonelcassad's claims of RF advances near Konstantynivka. Independent verification of the claims regarding RF shooting down nine UAF UAVs over Russian regions and the specific targets/effectiveness of RF drone-on-drone combat. Independent verification of Alex Parker Returns' claim of finding a Maxim machine gun. Independent verification of Operatsiya Z's claim of an "offensive on Sumy." Independent verification of the specific details of TASS's report on RF MoD's claim of active advance in Philiia, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, where RF forces allegedly forded the Vovcha River and broke through UAF defenses. Independent verification of Воин DV's claim of "liberation" of Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Independent verification of "Сливочный каприз" claim of control in Великая Новосёлка - Запорожское. Independent verification of TASS's claim of UAF losses in Luhansk Oblast of almost 4.4 thousand killed and wounded, including foreign mercenaries. Independent verification of RF claims regarding UAF burning forests in Kherson and corruption in evacuee processes. Independent verification of Saldo's claim that UAF destroyed half of all ambulances in frontline Kherson Oblast. Independent verification of TASS's claim that residents of Kyiv-controlled Zaporizhzhia Oblast are refusing evacuation efforts. Independent verification of TASS's claim that Southern Group of Forces' UAV and artillery crews destroyed a UAF UAV control post and radio equipment in DNR. Independent verification of RF claims regarding individual heroism in shooting down UAVs (Hyacinth commander). Independent verification of Kotsnews video claims regarding Dnipropetrovsk front. Independent verification of Narodная милиция ДНР claim of UAF pickup truck destruction. Independent verification of Два майора claim of FAB destruction of building with UAF personnel in Burgunka. Independent verification of TASS claim of civilian injury in Shebekino. Independent verification of TASS claim of FSB detaining a woman in Crimea for an SBU sabotage plot. Independent verification of Colonelcassad and "Два майора" claims of control over Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Independent verification of "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claim of RF strike on HQ of 42nd Brigade in Preobrazhenka. Independent verification of TASS claim of Southern Grouping of Forces destroying UAF ammunition depot in Konstantynivka direction. Independent verification of "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claim of RF forces striking gas infrastructure near Dikanka (Poltava Oblast). Independent verification of TASS claim regarding Kuznetsov's continued sabotage activities for SBU. Independent verification of Colonelcassad's claim regarding Lieutenant Gomenko's death in Odesa. Independent verification of Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны claim "Liberation of Filiya." Independent verification of Воин DV claim destruction of 3 UAF armored vehicles in Novosiolovka. Independent verification of Басурин о главном claim about APC with US/Russian flags being real and its stated IO purpose.
NEW: Independent verification of RF MoD claims regarding Giatsint-B artillery hitting specific targets.
NEW: Independent verification of Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition's claim of FPV drone striking an ATV with a person onboard.
NEW: Independent verification of Colonelcassad's claim of "liberation of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast."
NEW: Independent verification of Оперативний ЗСУ's claim of FPV drone strike on an alleged Russian officer in the Pokrovsk direction.
NEW: Independent verification of TASS's report on Ukrainian Ambassador Zaluzhny refusing to take US VP Vance's call, and the context of the alleged spat.
NEW: Independent verification of claims and impact of internet outages in Pskov Oblast on local infrastructure and services.
NEW: Independent verification of "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine August 24 - August 25" from Colonelcassad, particularly the video content.
NEW: Independent verification of damage to the Donetsk Republican Universal Scientific Library and the attribution of HIMARS strikes.
NEW: Independent verification of RF claims of advances west of Kupiansk and in Udachne.
NEW: Independent verification of the full context and veracity of БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video regarding RF soldier's alleged mistreatment/execution.
NEW: Independent verification of the specific details and combat effectiveness shown in Colonelcassad's "The finale of the 'blitzkrieg': UAF buried their myths under Novomykhailivka" video.
NEW: Independent verification of RF MoD claim of "Zaporozhskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) was liberated."
NEW: Independent verification of WarGonzo's drone video showing an explosive payload, including location and target.
NEW: Independent verification of "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" claim of UAF DRG action in Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, including casualties.
NEW: Independent verification of the destruction in Pishchane, Sumy Oblast, reported by RBC-Ukraine, and attribution of damage.
NEW: Independent verification of the specific targets and effectiveness shown in Colonelcassad's drone footage with RF MoD logo.
NEW: Independent verification of БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video claiming Ukrainian DRG activity in Kherson and RF casualties.
NEW: Independent verification of МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники video showing donkeys used for logistics, including specific timeframe and scale.
NEW: Independent verification of Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) video claiming "Otvazhny" forces destroying militants in Krasnoarmeysk direction, including location, targets, and effectiveness.
NEW: Independent verification of Colonelcassad video of DNR soldiers requesting a "large capacity quad bike," including location and specific unit.
RF Second Echelon & Reserves (Kharkiv): Composition, strength, and disposition of RF second-echelon/reserve forces behind the Vovchansk-Lyptsi salient.
RF Night Operations Capabilities (Kharkiv): Extent to which RF assault units are equipped with modern Night Vision Equipment (NVE) to support their shift to dedicated night operations.
UAF Fortification Effectiveness (Kharkiv): Assessed effectiveness of UAF fortifications west of Vovchansk against sustained glide bomb attacks and combined arms assaults.
Shipovnik-Aero EW System: Precise location, operational range, and full electronic order of battle (EOB) of the Shipovnik-Aero EW system operating near Vovchansk.
RF Logistics and Sustainment: Detailed assessment of RF logistics for frontline units, including the overall impact of relying on civilian volunteer organizations for supplementary support, and the true state of civilian humanitarian logistics in occupied territories.
Naval Mine Laying Operations: Specifics of RF naval mine laying operations near Odesa, including types of mines, methods of deployment, and frequency.
Impact of Tatarstan/Poltava Strikes: Full assessment of the damage and operational impact of the UAF strikes on the Tatarstan logistical complex and Poltava gas infrastructure.
Impact of UAF Mobilization Incidents: Detailed analysis of the circumstances and broader impact on morale and recruitment of incidents involving the death of mobilized soldiers during transport (Cherkasy Oblast).
Impact of Proposed Legislation on Male Travel: Full assessment of the potential impact of the proposed bill allowing men under 24 to travel abroad on UAF manpower and public sentiment.
Lyman Area Situation: Detailed assessment of the specific complications in the Lyman area of Donetsk Oblast, including RF forces involved, UAF losses, and immediate threats.
Effectiveness of UAF Evacuation Drones: Assessment of the operational deployment and effectiveness of evacuation drones transferred to Kharkiv units.
UAF Internal Corruption: Full scope and impact of corruption related to conscription and reservation processes within Ukraine, as reported by Офіс Генерального прокурора.
IT Specialist Emigration: Detailed analysis of the reasons and potential long-term impact of the reported 48% of IT specialists wanting to leave Ukraine on national resilience and military support.
UAF Fundraising Effectiveness: Assess the current state of UAF fundraising efforts and the impact of reported slowdowns on critical equipment and supplies (STERNENKO).
Effectiveness of UAF Drone Units: Detailed assessment of the specific impact of Ukrainian drone operations (e.g., Achilles unit) on RF equipment and personnel losses, as claimed by Оперативний ЗСУ.
Actual Impact of RF Domestic Incidents: Full assessment of the actual impact of incidents like the Chukotka tanker explosion on RF domestic stability and capabilities.
Impact of Long Neptune Missile Deployment: Full assessment of the current state of "Long Neptune" missile development, production, and deployment, and its potential impact on RF strategic targets.
Impact of US-Ukraine Negotiations Meeting: Detailed understanding of the agenda, participants, and preliminary positions for the upcoming US-Ukraine meeting on potential negotiations with Russia.
6.2. Collection Requirements
IMINT/SAR:
URGENT: High-resolution satellite imagery (EO and SAR) of the Vovchansk-Lyptsi salient, specifically focusing on identifying new RF force concentrations, equipment staging areas, and changes in defensive/offensive posture.
URGENT: Repeat SAR imagery over areas of alleged RF advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Philiia, Zaporizhzhia), and Donetsk Oblast (Konstantynivka, Dobropillya, Великая Новосёлка - Запорожское, Novosiolovka) to confirm or deny RF territorial claims. Also, SAR imagery for Lyman area to assess changes.
PRIORITY: Imagery analysis to confirm the presence and activity of the Shipovnik-Aero EW system, including identifying its location and associated infrastructure.
PRIORITY: Imagery analysis of RF border regions (Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Smolensk, Pskov) to verify alleged UAF strikes and assess damage to infrastructure, if any, and to confirm internet outages.
PRIORITY: Imagery analysis of occupied Kherson Oblast to verify RF claims regarding UAF burning forests and the state of civilian infrastructure.
PRIORITY: Imagery analysis of Tatarstan and Poltava to assess damage to the logistical complex and gas infrastructure.
ROUTINE: Monitor Black Sea coastal areas near Odesa for visual confirmation of naval mine presence or new mine-laying activity.
NEW: Review imagery of areas where RF MoD claims Giatsint-B artillery strikes for verification of targets and effectiveness.
NEW: Analyze imagery from the Poddubnyy |Z|О|V| edition video to attempt to identify the location of the FPV drone strike and confirm target type.
NEW: Analyze imagery from Оперативний ЗСУ video of FPV drone strike on an alleged Russian officer to attempt to identify location and confirm target.
NEW: Analyze imagery from Colonelcassad's 'Chronicle of strikes' for verifiable evidence of targets and damage.
NEW: Analyze imagery of the Donetsk Republican Universal Scientific Library to assess damage and corroborate claims of HIMARS strikes.
NEW: Analyze imagery from MoD Russia video on "Liberating Filiya" for verifiable evidence of combat and territorial control.
NEW: Analyze imagery from "Два майора" video of homemade drone on Zaporizhzhia Front for location and capabilities.
NEW: Analyze imagery from Colonelcassad's video titled "The finale of the 'blitzkrieg': UAF buried their myths under Novomykhailivka" for verifiable evidence of UAF combat and losses.
NEW: Analyze imagery from WarGonzo's drone video for location, target, and effectiveness.
NEW: Analyze imagery from RBC-Ukraine video of Pishchane, Sumy Oblast, to assess damage and identify potential impact points.
NEW: Analyze imagery from STERNENKO's Phoenix UAV unit video to identify operational context and targets.
NEW: Analyze imagery from Colonelcassad's drone footage with RF MoD logo to identify specific UAF equipment destroyed and assess the scale of damage.
NEW: Analyze imagery from БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video of Ukrainian DRG activity in Kherson for evidence of combat and casualties.
NEW: Analyze imagery from МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники video of donkeys for logistics to assess scale and context.
NEW: Analyze imagery from Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) video of "Otvazhny" destroying militants in Krasnoarmeysk for locations and targets.
NEW: Analyze imagery from Colonelcassad's video of DNR soldiers requesting a quad bike for location and unit identification.
NEW: Analyze imagery from 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) photos of new MRI scanner for its operational status and location.
NEW: Analyze imagery from ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 photos of 58th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade award ceremony for unit identification and operational context.
SIGINT:
URGENT: Intercept and analyze RF communications in the Kharkiv sector for indicators of second-echelon force movements, command directives for night operations, and specific EW system operational parameters. Also, communications in Lyman area for RF intent and capabilities.
PRIORITY: Monitor RF internal and external communications for further details or justifications of the Moscow explosion and UAV attacks, and the alleged Crimea sabotage plot, to assess their impact on RF strategic decision-making.
PRIORITY: Monitor RF propaganda channels for shifts in messaging regarding UAF humanitarian actions and civilian treatment in occupied territories.
PRIORITY: Collect RF tactical and logistical communications to identify potential vulnerabilities or shifts in resupply efforts.
NEW: Monitor internal Ukrainian communications for details on the corruption cases reported by Офіс Генерального прокурора to understand the scope and implications.
NEW: Monitor communications regarding IT professionals in Ukraine to assess the severity of emigration trends.
NEW: Monitor STERNENKO and similar Ukrainian fundraising platforms for trends in funding and specific needs.
NEW: Monitor RF internal communications for any discussions or directives related to the alleged Zaluzhny/Vance phone call.
NEW: Monitor RF internal communications regarding internet outages and their impact on local services (Pskov Oblast).
NEW: Monitor RF internal communications regarding the Chukotka tanker explosion.
NEW: Monitor Romanian Armed Forces communications for details on the discussions held during their delegation visit to Ukraine.
NEW: Monitor RF communications for any indications of response or targeting in relation to the "Long Neptune" missile reveal.
NEW: Monitor RF internal communications for discussions about the Polish President's statements on Ukrainian citizenship.
NEW: Monitor RF military and milblogger communications for further details on the alleged UAF DRG operation in Oleshky.
NEW: Monitor RF communications for reactions and counter-narratives to the announced US-Ukraine meeting on negotiations.
NEW: Monitor RF communications for further details on the use of donkeys for logistics.
OSINT/HUMINT:
URGENT: Scrutinize all available open-source intelligence (social media, local news, milblogger reports) for corroboration or contradiction of RF claims, particularly those regarding civilian casualties from UAF actions in RF territory and RF territorial gains in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia, and in Lyman. New: Focus on verifying claims made by Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Crimea bomb plot), and Colonelcassad ("liberation of Zaporizhzhia"), Оперативний ЗСУ (Pokrovsk FPV strike), and MoD Russia ("Liberating Filiya"). Verify claims of advances west of Kupiansk and in Udachne. Verify RF MoD claim of "Zaporozhskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) was liberated." Verify WarGonzo's drone video. Verify "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" claim of UAF DRG action in Oleshky.
PRIORITY: Collect HUMINT from occupied territories, particularly Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, to verify RF claims regarding UAF actions, humanitarian conditions, and civilian sentiment (e.g., refusal of evacuation, ambulances destroyed).
PRIORITY: Analyze public sentiment in Ukraine regarding recent events, RF propaganda, and international support.
PRIORITY: Monitor international diplomatic statements and aid commitments to assess the strength and cohesion of support for Ukraine. Pay particular attention to the RF-Turkey diplomatic exchanges regarding the missing swimmer, and Chinese statements on peacekeepers. Monitor Polish political discussions regarding Ukrainian refugees, especially the impact of the President's veto and proposed citizenship changes.
PRIORITY: Track developments regarding the proposed Ukrainian legislation on male citizens under 24 traveling abroad, including public and political reactions.
PRIORITY: Collect HUMINT from Kharkiv units receiving evacuation drones to assess their operational impact and any required training/support.
NEW: Conduct HUMINT on internal corruption cases within Ukraine, especially concerning mobilization, to understand their impact on morale and public trust.
NEW: Gather qualitative data through HUMINT to understand the motivations of IT specialists considering leaving Ukraine and potential countermeasures.
NEW: Assess the actual needs and impact of fundraising slowdowns for UAF units through HUMINT.
NEW: Collect HUMINT from relevant Ukrainian and US diplomatic sources regarding the alleged Zaluzhny/Vance phone call and its implications.
NEW: Collect HUMINT on the ground in Pskov Oblast regarding the severity and impact of internet outages.
NEW: Collect HUMINT regarding the Chukotka tanker explosion to assess its nature and impact.
NEW: Collect HUMINT from occupied Donetsk regarding damage to the library and local sentiment.
NEW: Collect HUMINT from UAF Marine Corps units regarding morale and operational readiness.
NEW: Monitor RF internal political and social media for discussions around the detention of the Kursk Oblast deputy governor to gauge public reaction and potential impact on local governance/fortification efforts.
NEW: Monitor local Ukrainian sources (especially Sumy Oblast) for details on the destruction in Pishchane, including casualties and damage assessment.
NEW: Monitor RF milbloggers and social media for discussions on the fine for a swastika meme to gauge internal control effectiveness.
NEW: Monitor RF social media and media outlets for discussions on "foreign agent" books.
NEW: Collect HUMINT on the ground in Kherson regarding Ukrainian DRG activities and RF responses.
NEW: Gather HUMINT on local logistical challenges for RF units that might necessitate the use of improvised transport like donkeys.
NEW: Monitor international and RF media for reactions and statements regarding the US-Ukraine meeting on negotiations.
NEW: Collect HUMINT from civilian population in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast regarding the new MRI scanner and its impact on healthcare access.
NEW: Collect HUMINT from 58th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade personnel regarding morale and training.
