OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: Russian Federation (RF) forces maintain multi-domain pressure across the front, with intensified ground assaults in Kharkiv and Donetsk. RF claims of "liberation" of Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) and RF groups entering the outskirts of Konstantynivka (DNR) persist, though UAF sources contradict the Dnipropetrovsk claim. RF also claims control of the situation near Dobropillya. UAF deep strikes against Russian logistical and energy infrastructure continue, with up to 6 hits reported on the Tatarstan logistical complex. Tactical counterattacks in Donetsk, including the confirmed recapture of Novomykhailivka and pushing back enemy in Zelenyi Hai (DNR), demonstrate UAF's ability to contest ground. RF continues to focus on information operations to control the diplomatic narrative, manage internal discontent, and promote militarization. International support for Ukraine remains strong, with new aid commitments and firm statements on territorial integrity, notably the arrival of the Norwegian Prime Minister in Kyiv. Recent incidents include widespread power outages in Sumy Oblast due to drone attacks and new reports of a ballistic missile threat from the East. RF milbloggers are publishing daily summaries with civilian-focused videos, attempting to normalize the conflict and fundraising for military units. RF is also showcasing heavy demining equipment. New reports confirm RF used 104 Shahed and imitator UAVs overnight, with 76 reportedly downed or suppressed by UAF air defenses. UAF has revealed a new "Long Neptune" missile with a reported range of up to 1000 km. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade reports repelling 35 enemy attacks and inflicting significant losses on the Pokrovsk direction. Sea mines have again been spotted near Odesa's coast.
NEW REPORT: Air Force of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat from the East. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW REPORT: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the situation in the Lyman area of Donetsk Oblast has complicated. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW REPORT: Operatsiya Z / Военкоры Русской Весны claim "Liberation of Filiya," with video showing drone footage of explosions, damaged buildings, and a Russian flag on a damaged structure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat and flag display.)
NEW REPORT: Воин DV posts video claiming operators of 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, 36th Army, "Vostok" grouping, jointly with a UAV unit, destroyed 3 UAF armored vehicles in Novosiolovka area within a day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of vehicle destruction.)
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, issued a warning about bad weather in Kharkiv Oblast previously.
Heavy rainfall was reported in occupied Donetsk, with water infiltrating buildings.
NEW REPORT: Colonelcassad's video related to the Crimea terror plot shows clear weather conditions. (LOW RELEVANCE for battlefield, HIGH CONFIDENCE for observation.)
No other new weather or environmental updates specifically affecting the immediate operational picture beyond previous reports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
RF:
Offensive Pressure (Kharkiv & Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia): Continued multi-axis ground pressure in Kharkiv (Vovchansk, Lyptsi) and Donetsk (Chasiv Yar, Konstantynivka) with significant air support (glide bombs) and EW capabilities (Shipovnik-Aero). Massed drone attacks (Sumy), and widespread air threats (Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk) indicate continued efforts to degrade UAF defenses and infrastructure. Renewed UAV/artillery attacks on Sumy city, leading to power outages, and RF claims of targeting UAF artillery/transport in Sumy area. Claims of first FPV drone in Zaporizhzhia. Fire control claimed over Karantynnyi Island, Kherson. New claim of active advance in Philiia, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF also conducted 500 strikes on 13 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including KAB strikes on Kushuhumska Hromada. Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk was attacked by FPV drones and artillery. ISW maps confirm RF offensive across the entire front. UAF General Staff indicates "enemy did not conduct offensive actions" in the Dnipro direction, contradicting RF claims for Philiia. WarGonzo reports on the Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv fronts. TASS reports Pushilin claims RF groups are entering the outskirts of Konstantynivka in DNR and control the situation near Dobropillya. Воин DV claims "liberation" of Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). "Сливочный каприз" posts photos and video suggesting control in Великая Новосёлка - Запорожское. Colonelcassad and "Два майора" post photo and video claiming control over Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims an RF strike on the HQ of the 42nd Brigade in Preobrazhenka on the Dnipropetrovsk direction. TASS claims Southern Grouping of Forces destroyed a UAF ammunition depot in the Konstantynivka direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports RF forces struck gas infrastructure in Ukraine, near Dikanka (Poltava Oblast). Kotsnews posts a video with soldiers discussing fighting on the Dnipropetrovsk front, claiming difficulties in clearing areas and use of drones/artillery, with footage of explosions and a Russian flag on a damaged structure. Народная милиция ДНР posts drone footage claiming the destruction of a UAF pickup truck near Novy Ekonomycheskoye. Два майора posts a video claiming the destruction of a building with UAF personnel in Burgunka, Kherson Oblast, using FABs.
NEW REPORT: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW REPORT: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны claim "Liberation of Filiya," with video showing drone footage of explosions, damaged buildings, and a Russian flag on a damaged structure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity, MEDIUM for visual evidence of combat and flag display.)
NEW REPORT: Воин DV posts video claiming destruction of 3 UAF armored vehicles in Novosiolovka area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence of vehicle destruction.)
Air Defense Response: RF is actively engaging UAF UAVs over its territory, as evidenced by previous claims of 9 interceptions (7 + 2) in three hours over Russian regions, two more targeting Moscow, and 7 over Smolensk. Latest claims from RF MoD state 21 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down overnight over Russian regions, including 6 over Bryansk Oblast. RF also claims drone-on-drone combat effectiveness. Claims of increased UAF strikes on RF territory. An air alert has been declared over Lipetsk Oblast, which has now been lifted. "Военкор Котенок" reports 23 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down overnight. Colonelcassad reports 21 Ukrainian UAVs of aircraft type were intercepted and destroyed overnight (2300Z AUG 24 to 0700Z AUG 25).
NEW REPORT: Sever.Realii reports that Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 104 Shahed and imitator drones in the night of August 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Logistical Support: Colonelcassad posts a video depicting the delivery of "humanitarian aid" (camouflage nets and other supplies) to "stormtroopers of the Sever brigade" via a public organization. TASS reports on a critical humanitarian and logistical situation near Kakhovka. Saldo discussing plans to restore water supply to Kherson by November. Colonelcassad also showcases a heavy demining vehicle, the MT-10 "Stalker." Colonelcassad posts a video fundraising for the "Summer Campaign 2025". Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo claiming that after attacks on the "Druzhba" oil pipeline, Ukraine may lose Slovak diesel.
NEW REPORT: Басурин о главном posts a video showing military personnel inside what appears to be an armored vehicle marked with both Russian and American flags, discussing vehicle operations, possibly as a propaganda or psychological operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO, LOW for veracity of narrative.)
Information Operations: RF milbloggers continue to publish propaganda, including claims of UAF strikes on Belgorod with civilian casualties, footage of alleged UAF equipment destruction, cynical posts about Ukrainian Independence Day, and exploiting diplomatic tensions. TASS highlights an RF MoD narrative of a junior sergeant evacuating wounded and claims of increased UAF strikes on RF territory. Colonelcassad's post about Ukraine's Independence Day in Zaporizhzhia and Alex Parker Returns' claim of a first FPV drone in Zaporizhzhia are attempts to diminish Ukrainian sovereignty. Colonelcassad's latest video showcasing "humanitarian aid" aims to boost morale. TASS also reports RF fire control over Karantynnyi Island (Kherson). New reports from Операция Z/Военкоры Русской Весны highlight alleged Israeli airstrikes in Yemen and now show a video of Kazakh children and Indians singing a Russian hit. TASS also reports on government plans to allow voluntary restriction of access to "dangerous content" for Russians. TASS reports Saldo claims UAF is burning forests in Kherson Oblast to intimidate civilians. TASS also reports pro-Russian underground sources claim residents evacuating Kyiv-controlled Kherson face corruption and bureaucracy. The TASS video features a man discussing agricultural activities, referring to prevention of fires as a "terrorist act." Saldo claims UAF destroyed half of all ambulances in frontline Kherson Oblast. Colonelcassad's photo message "Внимание, жители Украины!" indicates a continuation of psychological operations. The TASS video showing destruction and activity in Philiia, Dnipropetrovsk, is an attempt to support the new advance claim. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны are also expanding their reach with a new channel on the MAX messenger. TASS reports China Daily opinion on Zelenskyy needing to reach consensus for productive talks with Putin. TASS video of joint RF-PLA naval patrol serves to project military cooperation and strength. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RF Human Rights Commissioner Moskalova claims negotiations with Ukraine occurred in Belarus. TASS reports pro-Russian underground sources claim residents of Kyiv-controlled Zaporizhzhia Oblast are refusing evacuation efforts by Ukrainian authorities. TASS reports Andrei Marochko claims UAF losses, including foreign mercenaries, for the week in battles near Luhansk Oblast are almost 4.4 thousand killed and wounded. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" with photos and captions about "Airborne brotherhood, family" are recruitment/morale boosting. Colonelcassad's new photo messages, captioned "Moments of the SMO. Frontline weekdays.", showing a domestic cat on wooden crates, are attempts to normalize the conflict and humanize RF forces. TASS reports an executive proceeding against singer Zemfira* was closed after debts were paid, and Trump stated he would support annulling licenses of ABC and NBC for criticizing him. "Два майора" is publishing daily summaries with civilian-focused videos. RF is also showcasing heavy demining equipment. TASS reports that Southern Group of Forces' UAV and artillery crews destroyed a UAF UAV control post and radio equipment in DNR. TASS also reports Iran's Ambassador to RF states Israel's planned operation in Gaza will be a big crime. RBC-Ukraine reports on which European countries could see anti-Ukrainian forces win. Басурин о главном posts #ДЕНЬвИСТОРИИ. ТАСС also posts about South Korea-Trump meeting and Medvedev's tennis loss. Colonelcassad posts about channel information. Архангел Спецназа posts general good morning messages. ASTRA reports one person died and nine were injured in Sumy Oblast. ASTRA and TASS report the Prosecutor General's Office recognized the Swiss NGO "International Baccalaureate" as "undesirable." "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a photo message claiming the US Vice President stated Trump needs 6 more months to convince Putin to stop the war. RF milbloggers "Сливочный каприз" and Воин DV post videos/photos claiming territorial gains in Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk. Военкор Котенок hopes for a "good rocket" to hit Zelenskyy. TASS claims a peaceful resident was wounded in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. "Операция Z" posts a photo of a Ukrainian volunteer threatening Zelenskyy. TASS reports the FSB detained a woman in Crimea. STERNENKO reports RF is indoctrinating children in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a political cartoon captioning internal healthcare issues. ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA posts "Ukraine is strengthening". TASS reports suppression of a large online resource for illegal personal data distribution. WarGonzo reports "Europeans do not want to die for Ukraine." Sever.Realii posts a statement from State Duma deputy Butskaya that "Russians are not genetically wired for bananas or mangoes." TASS reports Russia-Europe relations will not be the same. Старше Эдды posts a meme discussing arresting a Stalin fan. TASS reports a former Ukrainian special service officer claims Kuznetsov, suspect in Nord Stream bombing, continued working for SBU on sabotage outside Ukraine. Colonelcassad reports Lieutenant Gomenko Igor, a police officer actively mobilizing residents in Odesa, was killed.
NEW REPORT: TASS reports a "neo-Nazi" from The Times is threatening Zelenskyy with murder for "leaving" Donbas, which is an IO attempt to portray internal divisions within Ukraine and discredit Ukrainian nationalistic figures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO.)
NEW REPORT: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a photo message of a mother who died on her son's grave in Zabaykalye, likely a morale-boosting or grief-exploiting IO to promote sacrifice or lament losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO.)
NEW REPORT: Рыбарь posts a graphic with text "Призыв возвращается" (Conscription Returns), signaling renewed or ongoing mobilization efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO/recruitment.)
NEW REPORT: Басурин о главном posts a video (already mentioned above) showing an APC with Russian and American flags, explicitly as a message to "foreign media," confirming its IO purpose. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW REPORT: Старше Эдды advocates for amending the criminal code to judge individuals based on political beliefs as an aggravating circumstance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO/internal policy shaping.)
NEW REPORT: РБК-Україна posts a video titled "No gasoline and there won't be: on Ukraine's Independence Day, Russian TV viewers were shown the truth about the war," which is a Ukrainian counter-IO piece highlighting Russian losses and resource issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF counter-IO.)
Strategic Economic Moves: TASS reports Iran's ambassador to RF on hopes for Russian gas supplies via Azerbaijan. TASS reports payment with "Mir" cards will be possible across Iran by the end of the year. TASS reports Kazakhstan's oil is being transported via Ust-Luga port as normal.
Diplomatic Engagement: TASS reports Volodin, head of RF parliamentary delegation, arrived in China for an official visit. Colonelcassad posts photos of new military equipment rehearsing for a parade in Beijing. TASS also reports France summoned the US Ambassador over criticism of its anti-Semitism efforts. TASS video of joint RF-PLA naval patrol further underscores high-level diplomatic and military engagement. РБК-Україна reports Prime Minister of Norway Jonas Gahr Støre has arrived in Kyiv. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine and Lithuania will jointly produce defense products. TASS reports China's Foreign Ministry states it does not plan to send peacekeepers to Ukraine.
NEW REPORT: TASS reports RF diplomats are preparing a request to Turkey regarding a missing Russian swimmer in the Bosphorus, indicating a diplomatic incident. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW REPORT: Kotsnews posts text stating "Hungary was slapped on the cheeks again. My note for the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine," indicating continued diplomatic tensions with Hungary. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO/diplomatic commentary.)
Internal Security/Recruitment: РБК-Україна reports an explosion in a toy store near the FSB headquarters in Moscow. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin states that two UAVs targeting Moscow were shot down. TASS also reports this. TASS reports seven UAF UAVs were suppressed and shot down over Smolensk Oblast. The Police of Khabarovsk Krai have released a recruitment video for law enforcement. TASS also reports a proposal in the Duma to ban tourist ascents above 4-5k meters without professional guides. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts also include video of a military ceremony. TASS reports that rules for carrying power banks on planes are not yet being tightened. Новости Москвы reports new aviation fees for passengers in 2026. TASS and ASTRA report the detention of Vladimir Bazarov, acting deputy governor of Kursk Oblast. TASS claims a peaceful resident was wounded in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. "Военкор Котенок" reports 23 Ukrainian UAVs of aircraft type were shot down overnight. TASS reports the FSB detained a woman in Crimea. TASS reports Bazarov was detained in connection with the theft of 1 billion rubles during the construction of fortifications near Belgorod. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a political cartoon captioning that from September 1st, Russians will be treated by medical personnel without higher education. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports a peaceful resident was injured in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. TASS reports suppression of a large online resource for illegal personal data distribution. TASS reports Bazarov (acting deputy governor of Kursk Oblast) is being transferred to Moscow. TASS reports an FSB operation closed a drug lab in Kemerovo Oblast. TASS reports a former SBU officer claims Kuznetsov, suspect in Nord Stream bombing, continued working for SBU on sabotage outside Ukraine. Colonelcassad reports Lieutenant Gomenko Igor, a police officer actively mobilizing residents in Odesa, was killed.
NEW REPORT: Mash на Донбассе posts a video showing the aftermath of a severe car crash in Makeevka, resulting in two fatalities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for domestic incident, LOW for direct military relevance, but RF IO may exploit such incidents.)
NEW REPORT: Новости Москвы posts a photo of a new test tram on Trifonovskaya Street, which is a domestic infrastructural development report. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for domestic news, LOW for direct military relevance.)
Solar Activity: TASS reports a solar flare, the largest in two months. (LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UAF:
Counteroffensive Actions: Continued successful localized counterattacks in Donetsk (Novomykhailivka, Mykhailivka, Zelenyi Hai, Volodymyrivka) demonstrate offensive capabilities. ISW maps confirm UAF successes near Pokrovsk. Оперативний ЗСУ shares drone footage from the 67th Mechanized Brigade showing attacks on enemy positions. STERNENKO reports the 3rd SSO Regiment destroyed a Russian truck with ammunition and a cannon in the Pokrovsk direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video in their "Putin's Last Kiss" segment, which typically shows Russian combat losses. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade reports repelling 35 enemy attacks, inflicting 104 personnel losses, 233 "Orlan-10" drones, 8 FPV drones, 2 artillery systems, 5 vehicles, and 2 motorcycles on the Pokrovsk direction. STERNENKO posts a video claiming the 3rd SSO Regiment destroyed an enemy motorcyclist in the Pokrovsk direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that UAF liberated Novomykhailivka and pushed back the enemy in Zelenyi Hai, Donetsk Oblast.
NEW REPORT: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a photo claiming "FOUR TOOK 15 PRISONERS: FEAT OF 'ARTIST' GROUP, 78TH AIR ASSAULT BRIGADE," indicating a successful UAF small unit action. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF claim.)
NEW REPORT: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video on the Lyman area, stating the situation has complicated, accompanied by drone footage showing explosions and troop movements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF reporting of complicated situation, MEDIUM for visual evidence.)
Active Air Defense and ISR: UAF is actively detecting and reporting incoming RF UAVs and KABs in multiple oblasts (Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk (both districts)), indicating active air defense and ISR. Sumy city is actively responding to renewed UAV and artillery attacks. РБК-Україна reports the air alert in Chernihiv and some areas of Sumy has been ongoing for 11 hours. РБК-Україна reports air alert over Chernihiv Oblast has been lifted. Air Force of Ukraine continues to issue warnings for Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts regarding attack UAVs. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has declared an 'All Clear' for air alert, but a new ballistic missile threat from the south has been declared, now lifted. Air Force of Ukraine claims 76 enemy UAVs were shot down or suppressed out of 104 launched. Air Force of Ukraine reports a new group of UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast, heading south. РБК-Україна reports RF attacked Sumy with two drones this morning. ASTRA reports one person died and nine were injured in Sumy Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts an intelligence message on the situation in its area of responsibility.
NEW REPORT: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat from the East. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW REPORT: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast, with assets engaged for downing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
High Morale: Ukraine's success in rhythmic gymnastics. HUR soldiers reciting a patriotic poem and the Eiffel Tower illumination in Ukraine's colors. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights' post on Kherson Mayor Mykolayenko's capture. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" contains a video of a Ukrainian soldier recounting a successful defensive action. Oleksandr Vilkul's report on Kryvyi Rih being controlled. STERNENKO reports starting the morning by "helping the army." Сили оборони Півдня України posts operational info with a photo of a tribute to fallen soldiers. Kyiv City Military Administration and Zaporizhzhia OVA also post minute of silence for fallen defenders. Оперативний ЗСУ's 67th Mechanized Brigade video. The "Rubizh" National Guard Brigade is collecting funds for equipment restoration. STERNENKO reports RF is indoctrinating children in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
NEW REPORT: Олег Синєгубов, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, posts photos of transferring evacuation drones to 10 combat units on the Kharkiv direction, indicating ongoing support for frontline operations and troop welfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Information Environment: UAF channels are actively reporting on enemy air threats, highlighting UAF successes, and promoting national unity. UAF Foreign Minister reacts sharply to Hungarian FM statements. Sybiha's direct and strong response to Hungary. РБК-Україна reports that Merz is outlining security guarantees for Ukraine. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports on Moskalova's claim of negotiations in Belarus. RBC-Ukraine published ISW maps. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that German FM states Ukraine should receive security guarantees close to NATO. General Staff of UAF and OTU "Kharkiv" provide estimated RF combat losses. RBC-Ukraine reports on which European countries could see anti-Ukrainian forces win. ASTRA reports Ukrainian FM statement responding to Hungary. UAF General Staff provides a tactical analysis image of the Kup'yansk direction and indicates "enemy did not conduct offensive actions" in the Dnipro direction. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" post on Trump/Putin. РБК-Україна reports Prime Minister of Norway Jonas Gahr Støre has arrived in Kyiv. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine and Lithuania will jointly produce defense products. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine has for the first time shown a new "Long Neptune" missile. Оперативний ЗСУ reports up to 6 hits on the Tatarstan logistical complex. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports sea mines have again been spotted near the coast of Odesa. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports life imprisonment for a Kharkiv traitor. Tsaplienko reports China is not sending peacekeepers. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that UAF liberated Novomykhailivka and pushed back the enemy in Zelenyi Hai, Donetsk Oblast.
NEW REPORT: РБК-Україна posts a video (mentioned above) highlighting Russian losses and resource issues, serving as a Ukrainian counter-IO piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW REPORT: Kotsnews posts text indicating continued diplomatic tensions with Hungary (mentioned above). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Border Control: РБК-Україна reports over 13,000 citizens detained attempting illegal border crossings in 2025. РБК-Україна reports a bill on allowing men under 24 to travel abroad has appeared on the Verkhovna Rada website.
Internal Security: РБК-Україна reports traffic restrictions in Kyiv center today. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports life imprisonment for a Kharkiv traitor. РБК-Україна reports a mobilized soldier died in Smila, Cherkasy Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports a mobilized soldier died in Smila, Cherkasy Oblast.
New Capabilities: РБК-Україна reports Ukraine has for the first time shown a new "Long Neptune" missile, according to Defense Express, with a reported range of up to 1000 km. (HIGH CONFIDENCE.)
1.4. Relevant Dempster-Shafer Beliefs (Updated)
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Air Defense Action: 76 of 104 Enemy UAVs Shot Down/Suppressed Overnight": HIGHLY RELEVANT. Север.Реалии text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF ISR/Air Defense: Ballistic Missile Threat from the East": HIGHLY RELEVANT. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: TASS reports neo-Nazi from The Times threatening Zelenskyy": HIGHLY RELEVANT. ТАСС text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Affairs: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts on mother dying on son's grave in Zabaykalye": HIGHLY RELEVANT. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Affairs: Mash на Донбассе video of fatal car crash in Makeevka": LOW RELEVANCE. Mash на Донбассе video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for domestic incident.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Information Warfare: Басурин о главном video showing APC with Russian and American flags as IO against foreign media": HIGHLY RELEVANT. Басурин о главном video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Battlefield Assessment: Situation in Lyman area (Donetsk) complicated": HIGHLY RELEVANT. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Policy/IO: Старше Эдды advocates judging by political beliefs as aggravating circumstance": HIGHLY RELEVANT. Старше Эдды text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO/internal policy shaping.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Diplomatic Incident: RF diplomats preparing request to Turkey on missing swimmer in Bosphorus": RELEVANT. ТАСС text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Counter-IO: РБК-Україна video on 'No gasoline' shows truth about war to Russian viewers": HIGHLY RELEVANT. РБК-Україна video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF counter-IO.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Force Support: Oleg Syniehubov transfers evacuation drones to 10 combat units on Kharkiv direction": HIGHLY RELEVANT. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF Military Action: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС claims 'FOUR TOOK 15 PRISONERS' feat by 78th Air Assault Brigade": HIGHLY RELEVANT. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for UAF claim.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Military Action/IO: Операция Z claims 'Liberation of Filiya' with video": HIGHLY RELEVANT. Операция Z video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, LOW for veracity, MEDIUM for visual evidence.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Military Action/IO: Воин DV claims destruction of 3 UAF armored vehicles in Novosiolovka": HIGHLY RELEVANT. Воин DV video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Diplomatic/IO: Kotsnews comments on Hungary-Ukraine diplomatic tensions": HIGHLY RELEVANT. Kotsnews text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO/diplomatic commentary.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF ISR/Air Defense: Enemy reconnaissance UAVs in northern Sumy Oblast towards Chernihiv Oblast, assets engaged": HIGHLY RELEVANT. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Affairs: Новости Москвы reports new test tram in Moscow": LOW RELEVANCE. Новости Москвы photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Military Action: KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast": HIGHLY RELEVANT. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Air Defense Action: 76 of 104 Enemy UAVs Shot Down/Suppressed Overnight": HIGHLY RELEVANT. Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) (Re-evaluated with Sever.Realii's specific reporting on the 104 drones.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "UAF ISR/Air Defense: Ballistic Missile Threat from the South": HIGHLY RELEVANT. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine text message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) (Now updated to "East" based on new information.)
UPDATED BELIEF: "RF Internal Security: FSB prevents SBU terror attack in Crimea (icon bomb)": HIGHLY RELEVANT. Colonelcassad video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RF claim as IO.) (Now with video evidence from Colonelcassad.)
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Offensive Ground Operations (Kharkiv/Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia): RF demonstrates capacity to sustain multi-axis ground pressure with air and EW support. New claims of advancing in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast near Philiia, fording a river and breaking UAF defenses, supported by drone footage (though specifics unverified). RF also conducted 500 strikes on 13 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including KAB strikes on Kushuhumska Hromada, and FPV drone/artillery attacks on Nikopol. ISW maps confirm RF offensive across the entire front. UAF General Staff indicates "enemy did not conduct offensive actions" in the Dnipro direction, contradicting RF claims for Philiia. Kotsnews video claims a 'Russian flag over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast,' with footage showing destruction and combat activity. TASS reports Pushilin claims RF groups are entering the outskirts of Konstantynivka in DNR and controlling the situation near Dobropillya. Воин DV claims "liberation" of Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), with drone footage. "Сливочный каприз" posts photos and video suggesting control in Великая Новосёлка - Запорожское. Colonelcassad and "Два майора" post photo and video claiming control over Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims an RF strike on the HQ of the 42nd Brigade in Preobrazhenka on the Dnipropetrovsk direction. TASS claims Southern Grouping of Forces destroyed a UAF ammunition depot in the Konstantynivka direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports RF forces struck gas infrastructure in Ukraine, near Dikanka (Poltava Oblast). Kotsnews posts a video with soldiers discussing fighting on the Dnipropetrovsk front, claiming difficulties in clearing areas and use of drones/artillery. Народная милиция ДНР posts drone footage claiming the destruction of a UAF pickup truck near Novy Ekonomycheskoye. Два майора posts a video claiming the destruction of a building with UAF personnel in Burgunka, Kherson Oblast, using FABs.
NEW CAPABILITIES/CLAIMS: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны claim "Liberation of Filiya," with video showing drone footage of explosions, damaged buildings, and a Russian flag on a damaged structure. Воин DV posts video claiming destruction of 3 UAF armored vehicles in Novosiolovka area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for Kharkiv/Donetsk, LOW for veracity of claims in Dnipropetrovsk/Konstantynivka/Dobropillya, MEDIUM for drone footage showing combat. HIGH for Zaporizhzhia strike reports and Nikopol attacks. HIGH for ISW reports. HIGH for UAF General Staff contradictory report. HIGH for Kotsnews IO claim, MEDIUM for veracity. HIGH for Pushilin's claims as IO. HIGH for Воин DV claim as IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence. HIGH for "Сливочный каприз" claim as IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence. HIGH for new Colonelcassad/Два майора posts as IO, LOW for veracity, MEDIUM for video content. HIGH for "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claim of HQ strike as IO, LOW for veracity. HIGH for TASS claim of ammunition depot destruction as IO. HIGH for Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 gas infrastructure strike. HIGH for Kotsnews video as IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence. HIGH for Народная милиция ДНР video as IO, MEDIUM for visual evidence. HIGH for Два майора video as IO. HIGH for Операция Z Filiya claim as IO, MEDIUM for visual. HIGH for Воин DV Novosiolovka claim as IO, MEDIUM for visual.)**
Air-Launched Guided Munitions & Mass Drone Production: Continued heavy use of KAB/FAB glide bombs and drone attacks. Demonstrated capability for drone-on-drone combat. Renewed and sustained multi-day drone/artillery attacks on Sumy. Два майора posts a video claiming the destruction of a building with UAF personnel in Burgunka, Kherson Oblast, using FABs.
NEW CAPABILITIES: Sever.Realii reports that Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 104 Shahed and imitator drones in the night of August 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Ballistic Missile Capability: Demonstrated capability to launch ballistic missiles, as indicated by the initial threat from the south (now east), though this alert has been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)**
Air Defense: RF demonstrates capability to detect and intercept UAVs over its territory (9 claimed interceptions plus 2 targeting Moscow, 7 over Smolensk, and 21 overnight over Russian regions including 6 over Bryansk) and has implemented air alert regimes (Lipetsk Oblast, now lifted, and Moscow). New RF claim of Hyacinth artillery commander shooting down 12 "Baba Yaga" and 6 FPV drones with small arms. "Военкор Котенок" reports 23 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down overnight. Colonelcassad reports 21 Ukrainian UAVs of aircraft type were intercepted and destroyed overnight.
NEW CAPABILITY: Sever.Realii reports that Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 104 Shahed and imitator drones in the night of August 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on launch numbers, HIGH on RF air defense claims for previous UAV waves.)
Precision Guided Munitions (Krasnopol): Demonstrated capability for precision artillery strikes using Krasnopol shells. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)**
Mine Warfare/Demining Equipment: Demonstrated capability to deploy and showcase heavy demining equipment (MT-10 "Stalker"), indicating a focus on breaching or clearing minefields. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)**
Logistical Support (Supplementary): Capability to leverage civil society organizations for supplementary material support to frontline units. Demonstrated capability to plan and execute civilian infrastructure restoration in occupied territories (Kherson water supply). "Два майора" posts a video calling for donations for the 33rd Motor Rifle Regiment. Colonelcassad posts a video fundraising for the "Summer Campaign 2025".
NEW CAPABILITY: Басурин о главном posts a video showing military personnel in an APC marked with both Russian and American flags. This indicates capability for psychological operations using captured or repurposed equipment, and also a potential for RF to operate equipment with varied markings for deception or propaganda purposes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for IO, MEDIUM for operational implications.)
Information Warfare: Capability to generate propaganda quickly, as seen with immediate claims of UAF strikes on Belgorod civilians, cynical posts about Ukrainian Independence Day, claims of UAF equipment destruction, exploiting diplomatic disputes, discrediting captured UAF personnel, showcasing public support for military efforts, diverting attention to other global conflicts, promoting cultural influence, and subtly linking China's military might to the RF narrative. Claims of increased UAF strikes on RF territory serve to justify their own actions. Claims of fire control (Karantynnyi Island) aim to project strength. New reports of UAF burning forests in Kherson and corruption regarding evacuees demonstrate capability to generate localized disinformation. NEW CAPABILITY: Generating claims of UAF destroying critical civilian infrastructure (ambulances in Kherson). Colonelcassad's general warning message to Ukrainians. The TASS video accompanying the Dnipropetrovsk advance claim, and the expansion of milblogger channels to MAX messenger, shows continuous adaptation and reach. New capabilities include leveraging foreign media (China Daily) to promote RF diplomatic narratives, staging diplomatic claims (Moskalova), showcasing naval cooperation (RF-PLA joint patrol), claiming UAF civilian refusal of evacuation (Zaporizhzhia), and inflating UAF casualty figures (Luhansk). RF also demonstrates capability to use trivial domestic news and foreign political events as distractions. New posts humanizing RF forces (cat on ammo boxes, airborne brotherhood) show adaptive IO tactics. New capability for "Два майора" to publish daily summaries with civilian-focused videos. TASS claim of UAV control post destruction is an IO. TASS report on Iran's Ambassador is an IO to align with anti-Western narratives. RF will likely exploit RBC-Ukraine's report on anti-Ukrainian forces in Europe. Басурин о главном posts are historical IO. ТАСС posts on South Korea-Trump meeting and Medvedev's tennis loss are distraction/normalization. Colonelcassad and Архангел Спецназа post about channel/morale. Воин DV claims engagement with UAF infantry. Ganchev's statement expresses RF intent for Kharkiv. Colonelcassad's quote of Merz is an attempt to undermine Western financial support. WarGonzo provides its own frontline summaries. TASS claims suppression of illegal personal data distribution. Fighterbomber posts new media content. Kotsnews video is a new IO claiming control over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Новости Москвы reports on Russian exceptionalism (39%) as an IO. TASS reports Merz's statement on German welfare, aiming to undermine Western support. Операция Z claims Ukrainian pilots on Yak-52 are trying to shoot down 'Gerans' to mock UAF resourcefulness. Colonelcassad claims destruction of Ukrainian battalion HQ in Kramatorsk, an IO to demonstrate successful strikes. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a photo message claiming the US Vice President stated Trump needs 6 more months to convince Putin to stop the war. Военкоры Русской Весны (Операция Z) claim UK preparing for mass deaths, purchasing mobile morgues. RF milbloggers "Сливочный каприз" and Воин DV post videos/photos claiming territorial gains in Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk. Военкор Котенок hopes for a "good rocket" to hit Zelenskyy. TASS claims a peaceful resident was wounded in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. "Операция Z" posts a photo of a Ukrainian volunteer threatening Zelenskyy. TASS reports the FSB detained a woman in Crimea who allegedly planned to use a bomb in an icon. STERNENKO reports RF is indoctrinating children in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a political cartoon captioning that from September 1st, Russians will be treated by medical personnel without higher education. ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA posts "Ukraine is strengthening". WarGonzo reports "Europeans do not want to die for Ukraine." Sever.Realii posts a statement from State Duma deputy Butskaya that "Russians are not genetically wired for bananas and mangoes." TASS reports Russia-Europe relations will not be the same. Старше Эдды posts a meme discussing arresting a Stalin fan. TASS reports a former Ukrainian special service officer claims Kuznetsov, suspect in Nord Stream bombing, continued working for SBU on sabotage outside Ukraine. Colonelcassad reports Lieutenant Gomenko Igor, a police officer actively mobilizing residents in Odesa, was killed.
NEW CAPABILITIES/CLAIMS: TASS reports a "neo-Nazi" from The Times is threatening Zelenskyy with murder for "leaving" Donbas. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a photo message of a mother who died on her son's grave in Zabaykalye, likely a morale-boosting or grief-exploiting IO. Рыбарь posts a graphic with text "Призыв возвращается" (Conscription Returns). Старше Эдды advocates for amending the criminal code to judge individuals based on political beliefs as an aggravating circumstance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)**
Information Control (Domestic): RF government can implement measures to restrict access to information for its citizens. Discussions regarding power bank transportation rules also indicate an ongoing focus on security and internal control. New aviation fees are also a domestic policy change. Prosecution of International Baccalaureate NGO shows further internal control. TASS claims suppression of illegal personal data distribution. Detention of a regional acting deputy governor (Bazarov) linked to "murky dealings." Новости Москвы reports a new Sber app ("Assets Online") in the App Store, and that sex guides for dogs are banned in Russia. TASS reports Sber launched contactless payment for iPhone. TASS reports an FSB operation closing a drug lab in Kemerovo Oblast.
NEW CAPABILITY: Mash на Донбассе posts a video showing the aftermath of a severe car crash in Makeevka. This demonstrates capability to report on domestic incidents that may be used to distract or normalize. Новости Москвы posts a photo of a new test tram on Trifonovskaya Street, demonstrating ability to showcase domestic infrastructural developments for normalization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)**
Diplomatic Engagement: RF maintains capability for high-level diplomatic engagements with strategic partners (e.g., China visit, showcasing military ties, joint naval patrols) and economic expansion (Mir cards in Iran) and may seek to exploit friction between Western allies (e.g., US-France). TASS reports Kazakhstan's oil is being transported via Ust-Luga port as normal. TASS reports China's Foreign Ministry states it does not plan to send peacekeepers to Ukraine.
NEW CAPABILITY: TASS reports RF diplomats are preparing a request to Turkey regarding a missing Russian swimmer in the Bosphorus. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Internal Security/Recruitment: РБК-Україна reports an explosion in a toy store near the FSB headquarters in Moscow. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin and TASS report two UAVs targeting Moscow were shot down. TASS reports seven UAF UAVs were suppressed and shot down over Smolensk Oblast. The Police of Khabarovsk Krai have released a recruitment video for law enforcement. TASS also reports a proposal in the Duma to ban tourist ascents above 4-5k meters without professional guides. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts also include video of a military ceremony. TASS reports that rules for carrying power banks on planes are not yet being tightened. Новости Москвы reports new aviation fees for passengers in 2026. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts about their bot. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of military personnel. Detention of Vladimir Bazarov, acting deputy governor of Kursk Oblast. TASS claims a peaceful resident was wounded in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. "Военкор Котенок" reports 23 Ukrainian UAVs of aircraft type were shot down overnight. TASS reports the FSB detained a woman in Crimea. TASS reports Bazarov was detained in connection with the theft of 1 billion rubles during the construction of fortifications near Belgorod. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a political cartoon captioning that from September 1st, Russians will be treated by medical personnel without higher education. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports a peaceful resident was injured in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. TASS reports Bazarov (acting deputy governor of Kursk Oblast) is being transferred to Moscow. TASS reports an FSB operation closed a drug lab in Kemerovo Oblast. TASS reports a former Ukrainian special service officer claims Kuznetsov, suspect in Nord Stream bombing, continued working for SBU on sabotage outside Ukraine. Colonelcassad reports Lieutenant Gomenko Igor, a police officer actively mobilizing residents in Odesa, was killed.
NEW CAPABILITY: Mash на Донбассе posts a video showing the aftermath of a severe car crash in Makeevka, indicating capability to report on domestic incidents. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW CAPABILITY: Новости Москвы posts a photo of a new test tram on Trifonovskaya Street. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Naval Warfare: RF continues to deploy naval mines, as indicated by the report of sea mines near Odesa's coast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Logistical Strikes: RF has demonstrated the capability to strike logistical complexes deep within Ukrainian territory, as evidenced by up to 6 hits on the Tatarstan logistical complex named after Den Xiaoping. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Gas Infrastructure Strikes: RF has demonstrated the capability to strike gas infrastructure, as reported near Dikanka (Poltava Oblast). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Judicial/Internal Control: RF's judicial system can prosecute individuals accused of treason, as evidenced by the Office of the Prosecutor General reporting life imprisonment for a Kharkiv traitor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Economic Manipulation: RF currency reports (RBC-Ukraine) can be leveraged for economic information operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Political Interference: Statements from Russian State Duma deputies (Sever.Realii, ASTRA) can be used to generate internal propaganda (e.g., "Russians are not genetically wired for bananas or mangoes"). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Intentions:
Degrade Ukrainian Military Capacity and Morale: Continue offensive pressure, inflict damage with KABs, drones, ballistic missiles, and precision artillery, and use information operations to demoralize. The sustained attack on Sumy is intended to degrade infrastructure and civilian morale. Maintain fire control over critical areas (Karantynnyi Island). Intends to discredit UAF and civilian authorities in controlled territories (Kherson forest burning, evacuee corruption claims). Aims to demonstrate capability and commitment to infrastructure in occupied territories (Kherson water supply). NEW INTENTION: Demonize UAF actions by falsely claiming destruction of civilian humanitarian assets (ambulances). Intends to demoralize UAF by exaggerating casualties (Luhansk claim). RF intends to degrade UAF C2 and equipment (UAV control post destruction claim). Ganchev's statement expresses clear intent for territorial gain in Kharkiv. Kotsnews video claiming Russian flag over Dnipropetrovsk aims to demoralize and project control. Colonelcassad's claim of HQ destruction in Kramatorsk aims to demonstrate successful targeting of UAF command. Pushilin's claims on Konstantynivka and Dobropillya indicate intent for territorial gains and control. Воин DV and "Сливочный каприз" posts suggest intent to claim recent territorial gains in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia. Военкор Котенок's statement about Zelenskyy indicates intent to eliminate UAF leadership. TASS claim of civilian injury in Belgorod is intended to demonize UAF actions. TASS claim of ammunition depot destruction is intended to demonstrate successful targeting of UAF logistics. Strikes on gas infrastructure (Poltava) and logistical complexes (Tatarstan) indicate intent to degrade Ukrainian energy and logistical support. Narodная милиция ДНР video indicates intent to highlight successful targeting of UAF equipment. Два майора video indicates intent to highlight successful destruction of UAF personnel/positions. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claim about "Druzhba" pipeline aims to highlight potential Ukrainian logistical weaknesses.
NEW INTENTION: TASS reports a "neo-Nazi" from The Times is threatening Zelenskyy with murder for "leaving" Donbas, intended to portray internal divisions within Ukraine. Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны claim "Liberation of Filiya" and Воин DV claim destruction of 3 UAF armored vehicles are intended to signal successful territorial gains and UAF degradation. The complicated situation in Lyman (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) will likely be leveraged by RF to show UAF struggles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)**
Discredit Ukrainian Government and International Support: Use claims of civilian targeting (Belgorod, Moscow, Smolensk, Bryansk, other RF regions) to portray Ukraine as an aggressor. Undermine Ukrainian national holidays through cynical propaganda. Employ rhetoric (Starshaya Eddy, Alex Parker Returns on Hungary, Operatsiya Z on Germany) to portray Ukraine as a destabilizing force in Europe and Western support as weakness. Discredit UAF personnel (captured soldier video). May also seek to amplify internal Western disputes (US-France, Trump/US media, RBC-Ukraine report on anti-Ukrainian forces, Merz statement from TASS, Colonelcassad's quote of Merz) to weaken support. New intention to leverage foreign media (China Daily) to push RF-aligned diplomatic narratives and stage false diplomatic claims (Moskalova) to undermine Ukraine's international standing. Intends to portray UAF as untrustworthy by claiming refusal of evacuation in occupied territories. RF will also likely exploit RBC-Ukraine's report on anti-Ukrainian forces in Europe. Операция Z's claim about Yak-52s is intended to mock UAF's resourcefulness. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" post indicates intent to undermine Western resolve. Военкоры Русской Весны (Операция Z) post about UK mobile morgues suggests intent to create panic and suggest Western weakness. "Два майора" post on migratory policy indicates intent to link domestic issues to conflict and support hardline internal policy. TASS claim of Crimea sabotage plot is intended to demonize UAF special services. "Операция Z" post on Ukrainian volunteer threatening Zelenskyy is intended to highlight internal dissent within Ukraine. WarGonzo post on Europeans not wanting to die for Ukraine and Sever.Realii post about "genetically not wired" Russians for certain foods are intended to undermine international support and foster nationalistic sentiment. TASS Stubb statement is intended to signal a new reality for Russia-Europe relations. Старше Эдды meme is intended to highlight Western paranoia. TASS Prozorov claim is intended to frame SBU as engaged in international sabotage. Colonelcassad Gomenko claim is intended to highlight alleged corruption and brutality of Ukrainian mobilization.
NEW INTENTION: Басурин о главном video (APC with flags) explicitly states its purpose is to counter "foreign media" narratives, confirming intent to discredit. Kotsnews comment on Hungary indicates intent to highlight and exploit diplomatic rifts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)**
Address Internal Hardline Criticisms and Project Strength: Claiming successful UAV interceptions (including over Moscow, Smolensk, Bryansk and other RF regions) and blaming UAF for civilian casualties serves to rally domestic support. Showcasing precision strikes, drone combat, individual heroism (Pirozhenko, Hyacinth commander), and public support for military efforts (Colonelcassad's aid video) reinforces military effectiveness. The claim of increased UAF strikes on RF territory serves to justify RF actions. Imposing air alert regimes indicates a focus on internal security and resilience. Response to internal incidents (Moscow explosion, Bazarov detention) and recruitment drives (Khabarovsk, Airborne brotherhood posts including ceremonies) aim to maintain domestic stability and control. Promoting cultural influence (Kazakh children) and showcasing military ties with China (Beijing parade, joint naval patrol) project global standing. Normalizing conflict (cat on ammo boxes, civilian-focused videos by "Два майора") helps manage public perception. TASS suppression of illegal personal data distribution reinforces internal security. Новости Москвы reports on Russian exceptionalism (39%) to boost nationalism. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники post about their bot aims to support mobilization efforts. TASS reports Bazarov's detention details, to demonstrate effectiveness of internal anti-corruption efforts. TASS drug lab report aims to demonstrate effective law enforcement.
NEW INTENTION: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники post on mother dying on son's grave, and Рыбарь's "Conscription Returns" graphic, are direct attempts to shape public opinion on military service and casualties. Старше Эдды's advocacy for judging based on political beliefs aims to shape internal legal frameworks to suppress dissent. Новости Москвы tram video is for domestic normalization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)**
Expand Territorial Control: Continue to press advances in Kharkiv (Vovchansk, Lyptsi) and Donetsk (Chasiv Yar, Konstantynivka). New claims of advancing in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF is also maintaining offensive pressure across the Zaporizhzhia axis. ISW maps confirm RF is advancing along the entire front. Ganchev's statement clearly indicates this intent. Kotsnews video claims Russian flag over Dnipropetrovsk, aiming to signal territorial gain. Pushilin's claims on Konstantynivka and Dobropillya clearly indicate this intent. Воин DV and "Сливочный каприз" posts about "liberating" or controlling areas in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia further reinforce this. Colonelcassad and "Два майора" post photo and video claiming control over Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), aiming to signal territorial gain. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims an RF strike on the HQ of the 42nd Brigade in Preobrazhenka, likely to demonstrate degradation of UAF command. Narodная милиция ДНР video indicates intent to target UAF equipment. Два майора video indicates intent to destroy UAF positions.
NEW INTENTION: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны claim "Liberation of Filiya" and Воин DV claim destruction of 3 UAF armored vehicles are intended to signal successful territorial gains and UAF degradation. The complicated situation in Lyman (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) indicates RF intent to exploit tactical opportunities for advance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for Kharkiv/Donetsk, LOW for veracity of claims in Dnipropetrovsk. HIGH for Zaporizhzhia strikes. HIGH for ISW map reports. HIGH for new RF claims on Konstantynivka, Dobropillya, Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk) and Великая Новосёлка - Запорожское. HIGH for new Colonelcassad/Два майора posts. HIGH for "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claim of HQ strike. HIGH for Народная милиция ДНР video. HIGH for Два майора video. HIGH for Операция Z Filiya claim, HIGH for Воин DV Novosiolovka claim.)**
Strengthen Strategic Alliances & Bypass Sanctions: Continue high-level diplomatic engagements (e.g., China visit, joint naval patrol) and economic integration (Mir cards in Iran) to reinforce international partnerships and circumvent Western isolation efforts. Align with anti-Western sentiments globally (Iran's Ambassador's statement on Gaza). TASS reports Kazakhstan's oil transport, aiming to highlight stable economic ties with partners despite sanctions. TASS reports China's Foreign Ministry states it does not plan to send peacekeepers to Ukraine.
NEW INTENTION: RF diplomats preparing a request to Turkey regarding a missing swimmer indicates an intention to engage in routine diplomatic processes even amidst conflict, projecting normalcy or asserting international presence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)**
Divert Attention: Use external events (e.g., Israel-Yemen conflict, Gaza humanitarian situation, internal RF news like Duma proposals for tourism, Zemfira debt, Trump's media statements, search and rescue in Kyrgyzstan, power bank regulations, South Korea-Trump meeting, Medvedev tennis loss, new aviation fees, International Baccalaureate NGO, typhoon in Sanya, phishing links, bus AC) to distract from the conflict in Ukraine. Promote non-military cultural content (Kazakh children singing Russian hit, civilian life videos by "Два майора") to normalize the situation. Новости Москвы reports a new Sber app ("Assets Online") in the App Store, and that sex guides for dogs are banned in Russia, serving as domestic distractions. TASS reports Sber launched contactless payment for iPhone. Новости Москвы reports that temperatures up to +30°C may return to Moscow in the last days of summer. RBC-Ukraine reports the dollar and euro have risen against the hryvnia, a domestic economic issue that can distract. TASS drug lab report serves as a domestic distraction. Fighterbomber showcasing knives is a distraction.
NEW INTENTION: Mash на Донбассе video of fatal car crash and Новости Москвы tram video are for domestic consumption and distraction, promoting normalcy. TASS report on solar flare is a purely factual, but diverting, piece of information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)**
Naval Threats: RF intends to create naval threats to maritime traffic, as indicated by the reported sea mines near Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Internal Control: The Office of the Prosecutor General reporting life imprisonment for a Kharkiv traitor indicates RF's intent to deter collaboration with Ukraine and enforce its control in occupied territories or suppress dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Courses of Action:
MLCOA 1: Intensify Kharkiv Offensive with Multi-Directional Pressure, Enhanced EW, and Massed Glide Bomb/Artillery/Drone Support. RF will continue pressing Vovchansk and Lyptsi, using KABs and drones (Kharkiv threat, Chernihiv threat, Sumy threat moving to Poltava, Donetsk threat, Dnipropetrovsk threat, now including Pavlohradskyi district, and new threats in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, including a new group of UAVs in northern Chernihiv heading south, and two drones attacking Sumy this morning, with new KAB launches on Sumy). Expect continued localized advances near Konstantynivka and continued attention in the Siversk direction. Ganchev's statement is a strong indicator of this intent. Pushilin's claims on Konstantynivka and Dobropillya are direct indicators. The complicated situation in Lyman (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) indicates RF intent to exploit tactical opportunities for advance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Reasoning: Confirmed new axis of advance, foothold in Vovchansk, increased glide bomb usage, widespread new UAV threats across eastern and northern oblasts, confirmed explosions in Kharkiv and Sumy, and renewed multi-day drone/artillery attacks on Sumy city indicate a persistent and intensifying COA. Prolonged air alerts in Chernihiv/Sumy are further indicators, along with new specific alerts. ISW maps confirm RF offensive across the entire front. WarGonzo reporting also confirms active fronts. New UAV activity in Chernihiv and Sumy further reinforces this. New KAB launches in Sumy and Donetsk specifically point to this continuation. Oleg Syniehubov's weather warning for Kharkiv may influence tactical timing but not the overall COA. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts further indicate continued operational activity. The complicated situation in Lyman, reported by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, suggests RF will press any advantage here.
MLCOA 2: Sustain Multi-Axis Ground Pressure and Tactical Engagements on Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Southern Axes, Leveraging FPV Drones, Air-Launched Guided Munitions, and Precision Artillery for Targeted Strikes and Psychological Operations. RF will maintain assaults in Chasiv Yar and other sectors, using KABs (Donetsk) and precision artillery (Krasnoarmeysk). RF will likely attempt to regain ground lost in UAF counterattacks (Novomykhailivka, Pokrovsk area). Claims of FPV drone in Zaporizhzhia, 500 strikes on 13 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (including KABs on Kushuhumska Hromada), and renewed multi-day drone/artillery attacks on Sumy (and FPV drone/artillery attacks on Nikopol) indicate persistent pressure. Maintaining claimed fire control in Kherson (Karantynnyi Island) and committing to infrastructure repair (water supply) for a narrative of effective governance. Expect Saldo and other RF officials to continue to disseminate claims of UAF targeting civilian infrastructure/assets (e.g., ambulances) in Kherson to demonize Ukrainian actions. RF may continue to propagate claims of advances, such as the new claim in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast near Philiia, regardless of veracity. Expect RF to continue fabricating and exaggerating UAF casualty figures, particularly for foreign mercenaries (Luhansk claim). RF will also continue to conduct strikes against UAF C2 and equipment (UAV control post destruction claim). RF will continue to engage UAF infantry, as claimed near Vovcha River. ISW maps confirm RF is advancing along the entire front and UAF success near Pokrovsk. RF may also utilize demining equipment (MT-10 "Stalker") to support advances or clear defensive areas, particularly in prepared defensive zones. Kotsnews video is an attempt to signal territorial gain in Dnipropetrovsk. Colonelcassad's claim of HQ destruction in Kramatorsk indicates continued focus on high-value targets. Воин DV and "Сливочный каприз" posts claiming territorial gains in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia indicate continued ground pressure and attempts to seize and declare new territory. Pushilin's claims on Konstantynivka and Dobropillya reinforce this. Colonelcassad and "Два майора" post photo and video claiming control over Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), reinforcing territorial claims. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims an RF strike on the HQ of the 42nd Brigade in Preobrazhenka, supporting efforts to degrade UAF command. TASS claims Southern Grouping of Forces destroyed a UAF ammunition depot in the Konstantynivka direction, indicating continued targeting of UAF logistics. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports RF forces struck gas infrastructure in Ukraine, near Dikanka (Poltava Oblast). Narodная милиция ДНР posts drone footage claiming the destruction of a UAF pickup truck near Novy Ekonomycheskoye. Два майора posts a video claiming the destruction of a building with UAF personnel in Burgunka, Kherson Oblast, using FABs.
NEW ADDITION: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны claim "Liberation of Filiya" and Воин DV claim destruction of 3 UAF armored vehicles are new examples of such claims and actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for previous, LOW for veracity of Dnipropetrovsk claims and Luhansk casualty claims. HIGH for Zaporizhzhia and Nikopol strikes. HIGH for ISW reports. HIGH for potential demining equipment use. MEDIUM for veracity of Воин DV claim. HIGH for Воин DV and "Сливочный каприз" claims as IO. HIGH for new Colonelcassad/Два майора posts as IO. HIGH for "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claim of HQ strike as IO. HIGH for TASS claim of ammunition depot destruction as IO. HIGH for Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 gas infrastructure strike. HIGH for Narodная милиция ДНР video as IO. HIGH for Два майора video as IO. HIGH for Операция Z Filiya claim as IO, HIGH for Воин DV Novosiolovka claim as IO.)**
Reasoning: Continued heavy fighting in Chasiv Yar, reports of KABs on Donetsk, confirmed use of precision artillery, claims of FPV drone deployment in Zaporizhzhia, 500 strikes on 13 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, KAB strikes on Kushuhumska Hromada, FPV drone/artillery attacks on Nikopol, RF claims on Kherson, new RF IO regarding UAF actions in Kherson, Saldo's public commitment to water restoration, and new claims regarding UAF destroying ambulances. The new RF claim in Dnipropetrovsk fits a pattern of exaggerated or unverified claims for propaganda purposes, with accompanying video to bolster it. The new Luhansk casualty claim aligns with RF's ongoing IO. The showcase of demining equipment indicates readiness for such operations. The TASS claim of UAV control post destruction indicates continued targeting of UAF C2. Воин DV's claim indicates continued small-unit ground engagements. WarGonzo reports also indicate ongoing activity on these fronts. Kotsnews video and Colonelcassad claim support this COA. New claims by Pushilin and by milbloggers Воин DV and "Сливочный каприз" about territorial control strongly reinforce this. The most recent claims from Colonelcassad/"Два майора," "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺," and TASS further solidify this pattern of continued ground pressure and IO. The strike on gas infrastructure adds another dimension to RF's targeting of Ukrainian critical infrastructure. The Narodная милиция ДНР and Два майора videos further illustrate this. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS update on Novomykhailivka and Zelenyi Hai indicates ongoing UAF counteractions. Операция Z Filiya claim and Воин DV Novosiolovka claim are direct evidence of this COA.
MLCOA 3: Intensify Information Operations Targeting Ukrainian Morale, Western Cohesion, Justifying RF Actions, and Diverting Attention. This will include exploiting alleged UAF strikes in Belgorod/Moscow/Smolensk/Bryansk/other RF regions, publishing cynical propaganda (Zaporizhzhia Independence Day), highlighting successful RF air defense (nine UAVs shot down plus two targeting Moscow, Lipetsk air alert (now lifted), seven over Smolensk, 21 overnight including 6 over Bryansk), claiming destruction of UAF equipment, portraying Ukraine as a European hegemon, exploiting diplomatic friction with allies (e.g., Hungary, Germany's welfare system, US-France diplomatic spat, Trump/US media, RBC-Ukraine report on anti-Ukrainian forces, Merz statement from TASS, Colonelcassad's quote of Merz), discrediting captured UAF personnel, narratives of RF military heroism (Pirozhenko, Hyacinth commander), showcasing public support for military efforts, promoting cultural influence (Kazakh children singing Russian hit), and leveraging military ties with China (Beijing parade, joint naval patrol). RF will also continue efforts to control domestic information (e.g., "dangerous content" restrictions, Duma proposal for tourism, trivial news like Zemfira debt, search/rescue in Kyrgyzstan, power bank regulations, South Korea-Trump meeting, Medvedev tennis loss, new aviation fees, International Baccalaureate NGO, phishing, bus AC, personal data suppression) and amplify internal security responses (Moscow explosion, UAVs targeting Moscow and Smolensk), and disseminate localized disinformation campaigns to discredit UAF authorities in Kherson (forest burning, evacuee corruption, ambulances destroyed) and Zaporizhzhia (evacuation refusal) while presenting efforts to restore services (Kherson water supply) as effective governance. Expect new narratives accusing UAF of destroying civilian infrastructure/humanitarian aid (ambulances) and general psychological operations targeting the Ukrainian population, including expansion of milblogger channels to new platforms, leveraging foreign media (China Daily) and staging diplomatic claims (Moskalova). Expect normalization of conflict (cat on ammo boxes, civilian-focused videos by "Два майора", #ДЕНЬвИСТОРИИ posts, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 military personnel video, Bazarov detention, "Два майора" migratory policy post), and recruitment/morale boosting (Airborne brotherhood posts including military ceremonies, Архангел Спецназа general messages, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники bot). Expect TASS to continue highlighting individual soldier prowess (Hyacinth commander claim). Новости Москвы reports on Russian exceptionalism (39%) as an IO. Операция Z claims UAF Yak-52 are trying to shoot down 'Gerans' to mock UAF. Colonelcassad claims destruction of Ukrainian battalion HQ in Kramatorsk. Expect RF to continue to attempt to undermine Western resolve (e.g., "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" post). Expect RF to use claims of UK preparing for mass deaths to suggest Western weakness. Expect RF to reinforce domestic hardline policies through milblogger platforms (e.g., "Два майора" on migratory policy). Expect Военкор Котенок to continue to vocalize threats against Zelenskyy. Expect RF to leverage internal affairs like the detention of Vladimir Bazarov as a distraction or to project internal control. Expect RF to continue to use claims of civilian injury from UAF shelling (Shebekino) to portray UAF as aggressive. Expect RF to highlight alleged internal Ukrainian dissent ("Операция Z" post). Expect RF to continue narratives of Ukrainian special services planning sabotage (Crimea bomb plot). Expect RF to exploit internal issues in Ukraine (e.g., "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" political cartoon on doctor shortage). Expect RF to use domestic news (Sber app, dog sex guides ban) as distractions/normalization. Expect ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA posts and WarGonzo/Sever.Realii reports. Expect Ganchev to continue denying UAF counterattack information. Expect TASS to claim Russia-Europe relations will not be the same. Expect Старше Эдды to use memes for IO. Expect TASS to claim SBU involvement in Nord Stream sabotage. Expect Colonelcassad to claim UAF police brutality and subsequent death.
NEW ADDITION: TASS reports a "neo-Nazi" from The Times is threatening Zelenskyy with murder. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts on mother dying on son's grave. Рыбарь posts "Conscription Returns" graphic. Басурин о главном video explicitly targets "foreign media." Старше Эдды advocates for judging based on political beliefs. Операция Z Filiya claim and Воин DV Novosiolovka claim contribute to narratives of RF success. Kotsnews comments on Hungary-Ukraine tensions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)**
Reasoning: Immediate publication of claims of UAF strikes on Belgorod/Moscow/Smolensk/Bryansk/other RF regions with civilian casualties, cynical Independence Day propaganda, claims of UAF equipment destruction, the Старше Эдды post, Alex Parker Returns' exploitation of diplomatic tension, Operatsiya Z's exploitation of German welfare, Colonelcassad's video of a captured UAF soldier, TASS's hero story, Colonelcassad's latest video showcasing "humanitarian aid," diversion to Israel-Yemen conflict/Gaza/Israel-Gaza, the cultural IO (Kazakh children), and the military parade photos (China) demonstrate this as an ongoing, high-priority COA. The reporting of multiple UAV interceptions, Lipetsk air alert (now lifted), and increased UAF strikes on RF territory is also for this purpose. TASS's focus on domestic issues and US-France spat, plus voluntary content restrictions, also supports this. The Moscow explosion and UAV attacks will be used to reinforce narratives of internal vigilance. New Kherson-related RF IO (forest burning, evacuee corruption, ambulances destroyed) confirms this direction. The Colonelcassad warning message further supports this, as does milblogger expansion. New IO via China Daily and Moskalova's claims are direct extensions of this. New claims about Zaporizhzhia civilian refusals and Luhansk casualties are further extensions. Normalization posts (including "Два майора" videos) and recruitment efforts continue this. TASS claims of UAV control post destruction, Iran Ambassador's statement, and exploitation of RBC-Ukraine report all fall under this COA. Басурин о главном, TASS (South Korea, Medvedev), and Новости Москвы (aviation fees) are also contributing to this pattern of distraction and normalization. TASS claim about Hyacinth commander is a specific IO. Ganchev's statement and Colonelcassad's quote of Merz are consistent with this COA. WarGonzo summaries also contribute to this. Kotsnews video, Новости Москвы on Russian exceptionalism, Операция Z on Yak-52, and Colonelcassad on HQ destruction also support this COA. New milblogger posts from "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦," Военкоры Русской Весны (Операция Z), "Два майора," Военкор Котенок, and the internal detention of Bazarov further reinforce this COA. Most recent claims of civilian injury, sabotage plots, internal dissent, and healthcare issues are direct extensions of these established IO patterns. The ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA posts and WarGonzo/Sever.Realii reports align perfectly with this COA. Ganchev's consistent denial of UAF counterattacks further reinforces RF's control of information. TASS Stubb statement, Старше Эдды meme, TASS Prozorov claim, and Colonelcassad Gomenko claim are all recent examples. The new reports from TASS ("neo-Nazi"), МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (mother's death), Рыбарь (conscription), Басурин о главном (APC flags), Старше Эдды (political beliefs), and Kotsnews (Hungary) are all direct examples of this ongoing COA.
MLCOA 4: Prioritize Counter-ISR and Counter-UAV Measures, while Continuing Strategic Strikes and Tactical Air Support. RF will continue to attempt to degrade UAF drone capabilities and respond to UAF deep strikes with its own air and drone attacks, including active drone-on-drone combat and the declaration of air alert regimes in border regions/internal territories (including Moscow and Lipetsk, which has now been lifted). Expect continued use of ballistic missiles from the south (now east), although the current threat has been lifted. RF will also continue to promote the effectiveness of individual soldiers against UAV threats. Операция Z's claim about UAF Yak-52s attempts to highlight RF counter-UAV capabilities. Expect RF to continue to report high numbers of UAF UAVs shot down overnight, as per "Военкор Котенок" (23 UAVs). Colonelcassad reports 21 Ukrainian UAVs of aircraft type were intercepted and destroyed overnight. Expect further strikes on logistical complexes (Tatarstan) and gas infrastructure (Poltava). Expect Narodная милиция ДНР to report on successful targeting of UAF equipment.
NEW ADDITION: Sever.Realii reports 104 Shahed and imitator drones launched by RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)**
Reasoning: Continued high volume of UAV activity from UAF (nine shot down plus two targeting Moscow, seven over Smolensk, and 21 overnight including 6 over Bryansk) and active RF air defense response, including demonstrated drone combat and the Lipetsk air alert (now lifted). The initial ballistic missile threat further supported this. RF claims about Hyacinth commander indicate a continued focus on counter-UAV measures. Операция Z's post on Yak-52s further reinforces this focus. "Военкор Котенок's" report of 23 UAVs downed overnight provides the most recent evidence of sustained counter-UAV operations. Colonelcassad's report of 21 UAVs downed further reinforces this. Strikes on the Tatarstan logistical complex and Poltava gas infrastructure demonstrate an ongoing intent to target critical Ukrainian logistical and energy assets. Narodная милиция ДНР video further supports this. The reporting of 104 Shahed and imitator drones launched by RF further highlights the scale of this COA, with UAF claiming 76 downed/suppressed.
MLCOA 5: Scale Up "Shahed" Drone Production and Deployment for Strategic Strikes. The continuing widespread drone activity, particularly the sustained multi-day attack on Sumy and new threats in Dnipropetrovsk and new alerts for Chernihiv and Sumy (including a new group of UAVs in northern Chernihiv heading south, and two drones attacking Sumy this morning). FPV drone attacks on Nikopol also demonstrate this. New reports confirm 104 Shahed and imitator UAVs were launched overnight. Expect continued KAB launches on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. Expect Два майора to report on destruction of UAF positions using FABs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)**
Reasoning: The continuing widespread drone threats and confirmed impacts (Sumy power outages/explosions, Nikopol power line damage, Poltava power outage, casualties in Sumy Oblast) reinforce this likelihood. The high volume of Shahed and imitator UAVs launched overnight supports this COA. The latest report of KAB launches in Sumy and Donetsk reinforces this pattern. Два майора video provides further evidence of FAB usage.
MLCOA 6: Continue High-Level Diplomatic and Economic Engagement with Non-Western Allies to Reinforce Strategic Partnerships and Supplement Logistical Needs. RF will continue to utilize high-level diplomatic visits and economic initiatives with strategic partners like China and Iran (Mir cards) to bolster its international position and circumvent Western isolation efforts, potentially showcasing military alignment through joint naval patrols. RF will also continue to utilize and publicize supplementary logistical support from civil society organizations to frontline units. RF will likely seek to leverage existing or manufactured diplomatic friction within the West. Expect RF to highlight stable economic relations with partners, as exemplified by Kazakhstan's oil transport. Expect China to maintain its current stance of not sending peacekeepers to Ukraine, which RF can spin as supporting its non-intervention narrative.
NEW ADDITION: RF diplomats preparing a request to Turkey regarding a missing swimmer indicates continued engagement on routine diplomatic matters. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)**
Reasoning: Volodin's visit to China, the continued focus on Iran-RF energy deals and Mir card integration, Colonelcassad's video on "humanitarian aid," TASS reporting on US-France diplomatic friction and Trump/US media, the Beijing parade photos, and the joint RF-PLA naval patrol video demonstrate this as an ongoing, high-priority COA. Iran Ambassador's statement aligns with this. The latest report on Kazakhstan oil transport stability reinforces this COA. China's explicit statement about not sending peacekeepers aligns with its established position and provides a stable diplomatic backdrop for RF. The diplomatic incident with Turkey, even if minor, reflects an ongoing commitment to international engagement.
MLCOA 7: Maintain Internal Security and Recruitment to Counter Domestic Threats. RF will continue to address internal security incidents (e.g., Moscow explosion, UAV attacks on Moscow, Smolensk, Bryansk and other RF regions) and conduct recruitment drives for law enforcement (Khabarovsk) and military (Airborne brotherhood posts including military ceremonies, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video of military personnel, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники bot) to maintain internal stability and security. RF may also implement legislative responses to internal security/safety (Duma proposal for tourism, power bank regulations, new aviation fees). RF will also continue efforts to control internal information by targeting NGOs like International Baccalaureate and suppressing illegal personal data distribution. Expect RF to continue internal security measures and potentially purges, as indicated by the detention of Vladimir Bazarov. Expect RF to continue to propagate narratives of Ukrainian sabotage plots (Crimea bomb plot) to justify internal security measures. Expect RF to highlight domestic issues (healthcare shortage, as per "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" political cartoon) for internal consumption or to distract. Expect intensified judicial action against alleged traitors (Kharkiv life imprisonment case). Expect continued use of domestic economic news (currency fluctuations, Sber app) and weather reports (Moscow heat) as distractions. Expect TASS to continue reporting on FSB operations against drug labs. Expect TASS to claim SBU involvement in sabotage. Expect Colonelcassad to report on incidents related to mobilization.
NEW ADDITION: Mash на Донбассе video of fatal car crash, Новости Москвы tram video, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники post on mother dying on son's grave, and Рыбарь's "Conscription Returns" graphic all fall under this COA, shaping domestic narratives and recruitment. Старше Эдды's advocacy for judging based on political beliefs also reflects efforts to tighten internal control. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)**
Reasoning: The Moscow explosion, UAV attacks on Moscow, Smolensk, Bryansk and other RF regions, Khabarovsk police recruitment drive, Airborne brotherhood posts, Duma proposal, and discussions on power bank regulations indicate these are ongoing priorities. New aviation fees also indicate internal policy changes. The targeting of International Baccalaureate NGO reinforces internal control. TASS suppression of illegal personal data distribution, and МОБИБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники post, and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video also support this COA. The detention of Vladimir Bazarov directly supports this, signaling an an active internal security apparatus. The latest claims of Crimea sabotage plot and healthcare shortage reinforce this COA. The life imprisonment for a Kharkiv traitor indicates an ongoing pattern of judicial enforcement against perceived internal threats. Domestic economic and weather reports serve as routine distractions. TASS drug lab report, TASS Prozorov claim, and Colonelcassad Gomenko claim all support this COA. The new reports on the fatal car crash, the tram, the mother's death, conscription, and political beliefs are further illustrations of this COA.
MLCOA 8: Increase Naval Mine Deployment in Black Sea. RF will likely continue to deploy naval mines in the Black Sea, particularly near Ukrainian coastal areas, to impede maritime traffic and threaten Ukrainian ports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)**
Reasoning: The report of sea mines near Odesa's coast directly supports this COA.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
MDCOA 1: Operational Breakthrough in Kharkiv, Targeting Major Ukrainian Logistical Hubs or Encirclement of UAF Elements, Combined with Mass Mobilization. A successful link-up between the Vovchansk and Lyptsi axes could lead to the encirclement of forward Ukrainian units, establish a significant salient south of the international border, and threaten major logistical hubs. This would be supported by increased use of MLRS, tactical glide bombs, and drone swarms, and potentially by the active deployment of demining equipment (MT-10 "Stalker") to breach UAF defenses. This could also involve the increased use of special forces in river crossing operations, as claimed by Воин DV. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Reasoning: The confirmed new axis of advance and high intensity of attacks in Kharkiv present the immediate conditions. The widespread drone threats across multiple oblasts indicate a potential for coordinated multi-domain pressure. The showcase of heavy demining equipment further indicates capability to overcome prepared defenses. The Воин DV claim, even if exaggerated, points to special forces capabilities for targeted ground engagements. Ganchev's explicit statement about liberating Kharkiv before a ceasefire elevates the perceived intent for a decisive breakthrough. The new RF claims on Konstantynivka and Dobropillya, and milbloggers claims on Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk) and Великая Новосёлка - Запороzhское, and now also from Colonelcassad/"Два майора," indicate strong and vocal intent for territorial gains which could coalesce into an operational breakthrough. Bad weather warnings (Kharkiv Oblast) may complicate but not prevent this COA; RF may attempt to exploit reduced visibility or ground conditions if UAF is unprepared. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports further indicate the ongoing operational intensity. The most recent claims from Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны regarding "Liberation of Filiya" and Воин DV regarding destruction of UAF vehicles, if verified, would indicate a high pace of RF operations. The complicated situation in Lyman (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) indicates a potential for RF to press a breakthrough.
MDCOA 2: Sustained High-Volume, Precision Strikes Against Critical UAF Command & Control (C2) Nodes, Key Air Defense Assets, and Full-Scale Attacks on Multiple Nuclear Power Plants, Preceding a Major Air Offensive. RF may commit significant resources to degrade UAF's ability to coordinate and defend, potentially using a higher volume of ballistic and hypersonic missiles and full-scale attacks on NPPs or other highly sensitive civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Reasoning: Demonstrated RF deep strike capabilities, the critical role of C2/air defense, and the stated intent for increased drone production create conditions for this. The claims of destroying UAF UAV control posts and the HQ of the 42nd Brigade reinforce this intention. The use of 104 UAVs overnight demonstrates capability for high-volume attacks. Colonelcassad's claim of HQ destruction in Kramatorsk indicates continued focus on high-value targets. Recent strikes on the Tatarstan logistical complex and Poltava gas infrastructure demonstrate RF's capability and intent to hit critical infrastructure far from the front. The new ballistic missile threat from the East further highlights this capability.
MDCOA 3: Escalated Covert Operations and Hybrid Tactics Targeting Critical Infrastructure within NATO Member States or Ukraine, Accompanied by Intense False-Flag Disinformation Campaigns, or State-Sponsored Terrorism, to Deter Western Support. RF may increase sabotage efforts against energy, transportation, and telecommunications infrastructure, within Ukraine and potentially in border regions of NATO member states, coupled with aggressive disinformation and attempts to sow discord among allies. This is especially pertinent given RF's attempts to exploit diplomatic rifts (Hungary, Germany, US-France, Trump/US media, RBC-Ukraine report on anti-Ukrainian forces), its continued focus on "energy security" narratives, and the new claims of negotiations (Moskalova). The Moscow explosion and UAV attacks on Moscow and Smolensk, whether an internal incident or not, highlight the vulnerability of domestic infrastructure and could serve as a pretext for RF escalation or accusations. TASS claims of civilian injury in Belgorod from UAF shelling, and the alleged Crimea sabotage plot by the SBU, may be used as pretexts for such escalation. Naval mines near Odesa also present a hybrid threat. The TASS report on Kuznetsov's alleged continued sabotage activities for SBU further fuels this narrative. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
Reasoning: RF's history of hybrid warfare, its continued use of false-flag narratives (Belgorod/Moscow/Smolensk/Bryansk/other RF regions claims, Starshaya Eddy's post), the exploitation of diplomatic friction, and new claims of negotiations make this a viable escalation path, potentially leveraging the "energy security" narrative. The Moscow explosion and UAV attacks add another layer of complexity to internal and external threats, potentially used as justification for "retaliatory" measures. The accidental child fatality in Kyiv Oblast could also be exploited for such purposes by RF. RF's internal crackdown, as exemplified by the detention of Bazarov, and rhetoric like "Два майора" on migratory policy, may increase internal pressure leading to more aggressive external actions. The most recent claims of UAF shelling civilians and sabotage plots by Ukrainian special services reinforce this MDCOA. The naval mines near Odesa are a clear example of hybrid tactics affecting critical infrastructure/shipping. The TASS Prozorov claim further supports this MDCOA. The TASS "neo-Nazi" claim and Старше Эдды's advocacy for politically-motivated legal action also contribute to a climate that could justify such operations.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
Next 24 Hours (IMMEDIATE):
RF Kharkiv Offensive (Intensified): High probability of continued, intense Russian ground assaults on Vovchansk and Lyptsi, supported by massed glide bombs, active EW, artillery shelling, and further drone attacks (Kharkiv threat, Chernihiv threat, Sumy threat moving to Poltava, Donetsk threat, Dnipropetrovsk threat including Pavlohradskyi district, and new threats in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, including a new group of UAVs in northern Chernihiv heading south, and two drones attacking Sumy this morning, with new KAB launches on Sumy and Donetsk). Expect continued localized advances near Konstantynivka and continued attention in the Siversk direction, including the Lyman area where the situation has complicated. (DECISION POINT: UAF operational commands to immediately reinforce defensive lines in Vovchansk and Lyptsi with additional reserves, counter-EW measures, SHORAD, and anti-armor assets. Bolster night surveillance capabilities. Monitor weather in Kharkiv Oblast for potential impact on operations and adjust accordingly. Reinforce Lyman defenses as well.)
RF Diplomatic/IO Offensive (Aggressive): High probability of continued aggressive RF diplomatic statements and intensified information operations, including claims of UAF military setbacks, exploiting alleged UAF strikes on Belgorod/Moscow/Smolensk/Bryansk/other RF regions civilians, undermining national morale (Zaporizhzhia Independence Day propaganda), efforts to divide Western allies (e.g., exploiting Hungary-Ukraine diplomatic friction, Germany's welfare, US-France diplomatic spat, Trump/US media, RBC-Ukraine report on anti-Ukrainian forces, Merz's statement from TASS, Colonelcassad's quote of Merz), discrediting captured UAF personnel, narratives of RF military heroism (Pirozhenko, Hyacinth commander), showcasing public support for military efforts, promoting cultural influence (Kazakh children singing Russian hit), leveraging military ties with China (Beijing parade, joint naval patrol), and diverting attention to other global conflicts (Yemen, Gaza, Israel-Gaza, search/rescue in Kyrgyzstan, power bank regulations, South Korea-Trump meeting, Medvedev tennis loss, new aviation fees, International Baccalaureate NGO, typhoon in Sanya, personal data suppression, loan payments, solar flare, domestic tram news). Expect continued high-level diplomatic engagement with non-Western partners (e.g. China, Iran). RF will likely control narratives around the Moscow explosion and UAV attacks and promote domestic stability measures (content restriction, police recruitment, Duma proposals for tourism, trivial news like Zemfira debt, Airborne brotherhood posts, cat on ammo boxes, "Два майора" civilian videos, #ДЕНЬвИСТОРИИ posts, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 military personnel video, Bazarov detention, "Два майора" migratory policy post, Sber app, dog sex guides ban), and disseminate new localized disinformation (Kherson forest burning, evacuee corruption, ambulances destroyed, Zaporizhzhia evacuation refusal) while presenting efforts to restore services (Kherson water supply) as effective governance. Expect the RF claim of advance in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast near Philiia, supported by video, to be widely propagated. Expect RF to continue fabricating and exaggerating UAF casualty figures, particularly for foreign mercenaries (Luhansk claim). Expect RF to leverage foreign media (China Daily) to promote its diplomatic narratives and use staged diplomatic claims (Moskalova) for leverage. RF will also likely highlight claims of UAF UAV control post destruction and Iran Ambassador's statement. RF will also claim engagements with UAF infantry (Воин DV). RF will continue to use Новости Москвы on Russian exceptionalism, Kotsnews video, Операция Z on Yak-52, and Colonelcassad on HQ destruction as IO. Expect RF to continue using claims of civilian injury (Shebekino) and sabotage plots (Crimea) to frame UAF as aggressive/terrorist. Expect RF to highlight alleged internal dissent in Ukraine ("Операция Z" post) and perceived internal RF weaknesses ("Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" political cartoon) as part of their IO. Expect RF milbloggers to continue fundraising efforts (e.g., "Два майора"). Expect ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA posts and WarGonzo/Sever.Realii reports. Expect Ganchev to continue denying UAF counterattacks. Expect TASS to claim Russia-Europe relations will not be the same. Expect Старше Эдды to use memes for IO. Expect TASS to claim SBU involvement in Nord Stream sabotage. Expect Colonelcassad to claim UAF police brutality and subsequent death. Expect TASS to report a "neo-Nazi" from The Times is threatening Zelenskyy. Expect МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники to post on mother dying on son's grave. Expect Рыбарь to post "Conscription Returns" graphic. Expect Басурин о главном video (APC flags) to be amplified. Expect Старше Эдды to advocate for judging based on political beliefs. Expect TASS to report on missing swimmer. (DECISION POINT: UAF public affairs and strategic communications to immediately counter RF narratives with verified information, highlight RF's destabilization attempts, and reaffirm national unity and international support. Immediately refute specific disinformation and expose RF efforts to fuel ethnic hatred and sow discord among allies, including direct refutations of RF manipulation of diplomatic exchanges, such as Sybiha's clear response to Hungary. Prepare counter-narratives for RF claims in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, including specific refutations of claims about ambulance destruction and evacuation refusals. Capitalize on reports of internal RF incidents like the Moscow explosion, UAV attacks, and the detention of Vladimir Bazarov to highlight RF vulnerabilities and internal struggles. Actively promote positive international support, such as Merz outlining security guarantees and German FM's statements, and the arrival of Norway's PM. Immediately refute the RF claim of advance in Dnipropetrovsk with verifiable evidence, leveraging the UAF General Staff's contradictory report, and counter milblogger claims on Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk and Великая Новосёлка - Запорожское, as well as Konstantynivka/Dobropillya. Immediately counter RF diplomatic claims (China Daily) and staged negotiations claims (Moskalova) with factual rebuttals. Immediately refute exaggerated UAF casualty claims (Luhansk). Actively leverage ISW maps for objective battlefield assessment. Publicize RF casualty figures and UAF successes in Pokrovsk. Counter claims of UAF UAV control post destruction and exaggerated individual soldier successes. Counter Iran Ambassador's statement as RF IO. Actively refute Kotsnews video, Новости Москвы on Russian exceptionalism, Операция Z on Yak-52, and Colonelcassad on HQ destruction. Counter "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" post, Военкоры Русской Весны (Операция Z) post on UK morgues, and Военкор Котенок's explicit threat against Zelenskyy. Leverage the Ukraine-Lithuania defense cooperation and "Long Neptune" missile reveal to project strength. Counter RF narratives on healthcare shortages by highlighting UAF resilience. Utilize the "Rubizh" Brigade fundraising to show public solidarity. Counter ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA, WarGonzo, and Sever.Realii reports as IO. Counter TASS "neo-Nazi" claim, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники post on mother's death, Рыбарь's conscription graphic, Басурин о главном APC video, Старше Эдды's political beliefs advocacy, and Kotsnews' comments on Hungary-Ukraine. Utilize Oleg Syniehubov's transfer of evacuation drones to highlight UAF care for troops.)
Ground Engagements (Persistent, Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia/Kherson): Continued heavy defensive fighting, particularly in Chasiv Yar, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia. RF will likely attempt to regain ground lost in UAF counterattacks (Novomykhailivka, Pokrovsk area, Zelenyi Hai). RF will likely maintain claimed fire control in Kherson, potentially escalating localized engagements there. (DECISION POINT: UAF operational commands to ensure sustained fire support and necessary reserves are allocated to hold defensive lines and consolidate gains from counteroffensives. Monitor Kherson for escalation. Monitor weather in Donetsk for impact on ground operations. Continue tactical successes like the 78th Air Assault Brigade's prisoner capture.)
RF Tactical Drone/KAB/Artillery/Ballistic Strikes (Widespread and Sustained): Expect continued RF tactical FPV drone strikes against UAF military equipment and positions. High probability of KAB/FAB launches against Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts (including new KAB launches). Expect continued RF reconnaissance UAV activity in northern border regions (Chernihiv, Sumy) and threats in Kharkiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi and Pavlohradskyi districts, including Nikopol), with new alerts for Chernihiv and Sumy (including a new group of UAVs in northern Chernihiv heading south, and two drones attacking Sumy this morning, with new KAB launches on Sumy and Donetsk). Expect further drone attacks and artillery shelling on Sumy (leading to power outages/explosions, casualties) and other northern cities, potentially utilizing precision artillery like Krasnopol shells. The prolonged 11-hour air alert in Chernihiv and Sumy indicates continued high threat. RF will also conduct strikes on Zaporizhzhia Oblast (500 strikes reported including KABs on Kushuhumska Hromada) and FPV drone/artillery attacks on Nikopol. Expect emergency power outages in Poltava Oblast. Overnight, 104 Shahed and imitator UAVs were launched, indicating this high volume will continue. Expect strikes on logistical complexes (Tatarstan) and gas infrastructure (Poltava). Expect Narodная милиция ДНР to report on successful targeting of UAF equipment. Expect Два майора to report on destruction of UAF positions using FABs. (DECISION POINT: UAF frontline units to maintain high alert for FPV drone threats and implement enhanced countermeasures. Air defense commands to prioritize intercepting KAB/FABs and drones, especially in border regions and near critical infrastructure. Emphasize counter-battery fire against precision artillery platforms. Enhance protection for logistical and gas infrastructure. Be prepared for ballistic missile threats from the East.)
RF Internal Air Alerts: Expect continued air alerts in RF border regions and possibly deeper into RF territory (e.g., Moscow, Smolensk, Bryansk) in response to UAF deep strikes. (DECISION POINT: UAF operational commands to assess the impact of these alerts on RF air defense deployment and overall resource allocation.)
Kyiv Internal Security Measures: Expect continued traffic restrictions in central Kyiv, likely related to security concerns or planned events. (DECISION POINT: UAF internal security and traffic management to ensure minimal disruption while maintaining security.)
Black Sea Mine Threat: Expect continued presence and potential new deployments of naval mines near Odesa and other coastal areas. (DECISION POINT: UAF naval forces to maintain heightened vigilance and implement active mine countermeasures; ensure safe passage for maritime traffic.)
Next 48-72 Hours (NEAR-TERM):
RF Retaliatory Strikes (Strategic Depth/Wider Geographic Spread, including "Shahed" surge): Increased probability of RF missile/UAV/aviation strikes against Ukrainian cities or military/industrial targets, potentially including critical energy infrastructure, potentially as "retaliation" for UAV attacks on Moscow/Smolensk/Bryansk/other RF regions, or for claimed civilian injury in Belgorod, or alleged Crimea sabotage plots. Expect a wider geographic spread of KAB/FABs and MLRS/artillery/drone fire. (DECISION POINT: UAF air defense commands to maintain maximum readiness, optimize resource allocation for high-value military-industrial, logistical, and critical energy targets. Prioritize air defense for population centers and critical infrastructure against potential "Shahed" swarm attacks.)
Consolidation of UAF Gains/RF Counter-Efforts: UAF will focus on consolidating the recaptured villages in Donetsk, including Novomykhailivka and areas near Pokrovsk and Zelenyi Hai, while RF will likely launch counter-efforts to retake these positions. (DECISION POINT: UAF operational commands to fortify positions, prepare for RF counterattacks, and assess opportunities for further tactical advances.)
Escalated RF Internal Security Measures: Following the Moscow explosion and UAV attacks on Moscow/Smolensk/Bryansk/other RF regions, RF may implement heightened security protocols or initiate investigations that could lead to further internal crackdowns, potentially linked to incidents like the detention of Vladimir Bazarov. RF may also leverage domestic incidents like the Makeevka car crash for distraction. (DECISION POINT: UAF intelligence to monitor RF internal security responses for any impact on troop deployments or resource allocation to the front. Prepare counter-narratives for any RF exploitation of domestic incidents.)
Economic Stabilization Efforts: UAF economic authorities may need to address currency depreciation (RBC-Ukraine report) to maintain public confidence. (DECISION POINT: UAF economic leadership to assess causes and implement measures to stabilize the hryvnia and mitigate economic concerns.)
Legal Measures Regarding Mobilization: Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada may advance legislation regarding male citizens traveling abroad (RBC-Ukraine report). (DECISION POINT: UAF leadership to assess the potential impact of such legislation on manpower and public sentiment.)
Continued Diplomatic Activity: International partners may continue high-level visits to Kyiv (e.g., Norway's PM) demonstrating sustained support. RF will continue diplomatic engagement with Turkey regarding the missing swimmer, which could be an opportunity for Ukrainian intelligence to observe RF's diplomatic priorities. (DECISION POINT: UAF diplomatic channels to continue leveraging international support and observing RF diplomatic actions for intelligence gathering.)
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
6.1. Intelligence Gaps
Veracity of RF Claims: Independent verification (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT) of Voenkor KOTENOK's claims regarding UAF strikes on Belgorod civilians and casualties. Independent verification of Colonelcassad's claims of RF advances near Konstantynivka. Independent verification of the claims regarding RF shooting down nine UAF UAVs over Russian regions and the specific targets/effectiveness of RF drone-on-drone combat. Independent verification of Alex Parker Returns' claim of finding a Maxim machine gun. Independent verification of Operatsiya Z's claim of an "offensive on Sumy." Independent verification of the specific details of TASS's report on RF MoD's claim of active advance in Philiia, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, where RF forces allegedly forded the Vovcha River and broke through UAF defenses. Independent verification of Воин DV's claim of "liberation" of Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Independent verification of "Сливочный каприз" claim of control in Великая Новосёлка - Запорожское. Independent verification of TASS's claim of UAF losses in Luhansk Oblast of almost 4.4 thousand killed and wounded, including foreign mercenaries. Independent verification of RF claims regarding UAF burning forests in Kherson and corruption in evacuee processes. Independent verification of Saldo's claim that UAF destroyed half of all ambulances in frontline Kherson Oblast. Independent verification of TASS's claim that residents of Kyiv-controlled Zaporizhzhia Oblast are refusing evacuation efforts. Independent verification of TASS's claim that Southern Group of Forces' UAV and artillery crews destroyed a UAF UAV control post and radio equipment in DNR. Independent verification of RF claims regarding individual heroism in shooting down UAVs (Hyacinth commander). Independent verification of Kotsnews video claims regarding Dnipropetrovsk front. Independent verification of Narodная милиция ДНР claim of UAF pickup truck destruction. Independent verification of Два майора claim of FAB destruction of building with UAF personnel in Burgunka. Independent verification of TASS claim of civilian injury in Shebekino. Independent verification of TASS claim of FSB detaining a woman in Crimea for an SBU sabotage plot. Independent verification of Colonelcassad and "Два майора" claims of control over Zaporizhzhia (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Independent verification of "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claim of RF strike on HQ of 42nd Brigade in Preobrazhenka. Independent verification of TASS claim of Southern Grouping of Forces destroying UAF ammunition depot in Konstantynivka direction. Independent verification of "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claim of RF forces striking gas infrastructure near Dikanka (Poltava Oblast). Independent verification of TASS claim regarding Kuznetsov's continued sabotage activities for SBU. Independent verification of Colonelcassad's claim regarding Lieutenant Gomenko's death in Odesa. New: Independent verification of Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны claim "Liberation of Filiya." Independent verification of Воин DV claim destruction of 3 UAF armored vehicles in Novosiolovka. Independent verification of Басурин о главном claim about APC with US/Russian flags being real and its stated IO purpose.
RF Second Echelon & Reserves (Kharkiv): Composition, strength, and disposition of RF second-echelon/reserve forces behind the Vovchansk-Lyptsi salient.
RF Night Operations Capabilities (Kharkiv): Extent to which RF assault units are equipped with modern Night Vision Equipment (NVE) to support their shift to dedicated night operations.
UAF Fortification Effectiveness (Kharkiv): Assessed effectiveness of UAF fortifications west of Vovchansk against sustained glide bomb attacks and combined arms assaults.
Shipovnik-Aero EW System: Precise location, operational range, and full electronic order of battle (EOB) of the Shipovnik-Aero EW system operating near Vovchansk.
RF Logistics and Sustainment: Detailed assessment of RF logistics for frontline units, including the overall impact of relying on civilian volunteer organizations for supplementary support, and the true state of civilian humanitarian logistics in occupied territories.
Naval Mine Laying Operations: Specifics of RF naval mine laying operations near Odesa, including types of mines, methods of deployment, and frequency.
Impact of Tatarstan/Poltava Strikes: Full assessment of the damage and operational impact of the UAF strikes on the Tatarstan logistical complex and Poltava gas infrastructure.
Impact of UAF Mobilization Incidents: Detailed analysis of the circumstances and broader impact on morale and recruitment of incidents involving the death of mobilized soldiers during transport (Cherkasy Oblast).
Impact of Proposed Legislation on Male Travel: Full assessment of the potential impact of the proposed bill allowing men under 24 to travel abroad on UAF manpower and public sentiment.
Lyman Area Situation: Detailed assessment of the specific complications in the Lyman area of Donetsk Oblast, including RF forces involved, UAF losses, and immediate threats.
Effectiveness of UAF Evacuation Drones: Assessment of the operational deployment and effectiveness of evacuation drones transferred to Kharkiv units.
6.2. Collection Requirements
IMINT/SAR:
URGENT: High-resolution satellite imagery (EO and SAR) of the Vovchansk-Lyptsi salient, specifically focusing on identifying new RF force concentrations, equipment staging areas, and changes in defensive/offensive posture.
URGENT: Repeat SAR imagery over areas of alleged RF advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Philiia, Zaporizhzhia), and Donetsk Oblast (Konstantynivka, Dobropillya, Великая Новосёлка - Запорожское, Novosiolovka) to confirm or deny RF territorial claims. Also, SAR imagery for Lyman area to assess changes.
PRIORITY: Imagery analysis to confirm the presence and activity of the Shipovnik-Aero EW system, including identifying its location and associated infrastructure.
PRIORITY: Imagery analysis of RF border regions (Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Smolensk) to verify alleged UAF strikes and assess damage to infrastructure, if any.
PRIORITY: Imagery analysis of occupied Kherson Oblast to verify RF claims regarding UAF burning forests and the state of civilian infrastructure.
PRIORITY: Imagery analysis of Tatarstan and Poltava to assess damage to the logistical complex and gas infrastructure.
ROUTINE: Monitor Black Sea coastal areas near Odesa for visual confirmation of naval mine presence or new mine-laying activity.
SIGINT:
URGENT: Intercept and analyze RF communications in the Kharkiv sector for indicators of second-echelon force movements, command directives for night operations, and specific EW system operational parameters. Also, communications in Lyman area for RF intent and capabilities.
PRIORITY: Monitor RF internal and external communications for further details or justifications of the Moscow explosion and UAV attacks, and the alleged Crimea sabotage plot, to assess their impact on RF strategic decision-making.
PRIORITY: Monitor RF propaganda channels for shifts in messaging regarding UAF humanitarian actions and civilian treatment in occupied territories.
PRIORITY: Collect RF tactical and logistical communications to identify potential vulnerabilities or shifts in resupply efforts.
OSINT/HUMINT:
URGENT: Scrutinize all available open-source intelligence (social media, local news, milblogger reports) for corroboration or contradiction of RF claims, particularly those regarding civilian casualties from UAF actions in RF territory and RF territorial gains in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia, and in Lyman.
PRIORITY: Collect HUMINT from occupied territories, particularly Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, to verify RF claims regarding UAF actions, humanitarian conditions, and civilian sentiment (e.g., refusal of evacuation, ambulances destroyed).
PRIORITY: Analyze public sentiment in Ukraine regarding recent events, RF propaganda, and international support.
PRIORITY: Monitor international diplomatic statements and aid commitments to assess the strength and cohesion of support for Ukraine. Pay particular attention to the RF-Turkey diplomatic exchanges regarding the missing swimmer.
PRIORITY: Track developments regarding the proposed Ukrainian legislation on male citizens under 24 traveling abroad, including public and political reactions.
PRIORITY: Collect HUMINT from Kharkiv units receiving evacuation drones to assess their operational impact and any required training/support.
