Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 200751Z AUG 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske Axis): RF forces (elements of 98th VDV Division) maintain a confirmed foothold in the eastern Kanal microdistrict of Chasiv Yar, continuing battalion-sized mechanized assaults. UA units executed tactical withdrawal to prepared defensive positions west of the initial line of contact. Clashes persist near Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, Oleksandra-Kalynove, and Pleschiyivka. UA 93rd Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" successfully cleared and took control of Hruzke and Vesele near Dobropillya, capturing an RF prisoner, indicating localized UA counter-offensive success and stabilization in the Dobropillya area. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and towards Bondarne in the Kramatorsk direction, as well as Bila Hora and Chasiv Yar. Rybar (RF source) animated maps indicate Russian advances around Chasov Yar and Katerinovka, with pushes towards Konstantinovka and along the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal, suggesting continued RF focus on consolidating and expanding territorial gains. OSUV "Dnipro" states Russians have occupied two settlements in Donetsk Oblast (unnamed). RF MoD reports Russian artillery destroyed a mortar and a UA UAV control point, likely in Donetsk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) and Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) videos show Azov Brigade successfully repelling a powerful enemy attack and preventing consolidation in Katerynivka, Toretsk direction. This contradicts previous RF claims of gains and indicates effective UA defensive action. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts new video showing drones "clearing strongholds" and covering "our assault teams" in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. RF sources (RBC-Ukraine) report explosions in occupied Donetsk, with complaints of unknown drone attacks. ASTRA (UA source) reports explosions and a subsequent fire in Donetsk, citing local residents. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue in Donetsk Oblast. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) has posted multiple photo messages that appear to be maps or operational summaries of activity in the Siversk direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts new video showing 93rd Mechanized Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" conducting clearance operations of the village of Vesele in the Dobropillya area, supported by tanks and multiple ground robotic systems equipped with machine guns. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video footage of the 85th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (OMCBR) operating on the Soledar direction, showing drone footage of a wooded area with debris and smoke from impacts, and a destroyed trench system. Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) claims RF 36th OA forces (37th OMCBR, 336th Marine Brigade) are likely to force UA to abandon Maliyivka and are advancing from Shevchenko to Yanvarske, though with limited success. STERNENKO (UA source) posts new video showing the destruction of an enemy vehicle with ammunition in the Pokrovsk direction by "Predators of the Heights" tactical group. The video shows an aerial perspective of a vehicle targeted by a drone, resulting in explosions and a significant fire ("fire show"), confirming successful UA drone strike. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UA source) posts a photo message claiming "successfully demobilized" RF personnel. Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) posts video claiming destruction of a UA 2S1 Self-Propelled Howitzer near Konstantinovka. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Predtechyne, Oleksandro-Shultyne and Bila Hora in Kramatorsk direction. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) photo message indicates UA forces are having success in several directions in Donetsk Oblast, specifically listing Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz cleared by elements of the 1st Azov Corps. This directly contradicts prior RF claims of gains and indicates UA regaining territory. ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA (RF source) posts a strategic overview map of the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya direction. Воин DV (RF source) video shows drone footage of engagements on the South-Donetsk direction by the 57th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, depicting successful strikes on RF positions, equipment, and personnel. A photo message from "Сливочный каприз" (RF source) indicates current RF claimed positions between Dobropillya and Zolotyi Kolodyaz. Colonelcassad (RF source) has provided a photo message with no caption. TASS reports that RF forces struck UA units with FAB bombs in Myrnohrad and Ivanpillia, DNR. MoD Russia video shows aerial footage of an urban area, with multiple large explosions and plumes of smoke, indicating ongoing shelling or airstrikes in Donetsk People's Republic. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows a drone strike on a Russian motorcyclist in the Kurakhove direction. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims the assault on Konstantinovka has begun. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UA source) video, captured from a thermal imaging perspective, shows what appears to be a ground vehicle or personnel moving across an open field, with an explosion occurring in the vicinity of the target. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetropavsk and Donetsk Oblasts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video shows the 425th Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropropetropavsk and Donetsk Oblasts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video showing captured Russian soldiers providing testimony confirms UA success. An Iskander-M missile strike has been reported in Sloviansk. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a photo message claiming RF forces are advancing on the Konstantinovka direction. Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) posts a video showing a BM-21 Grad MLRS firing and subsequent aerial footage of strikes on damaged buildings, claiming it is the 238th Artillery Brigade supporting the offensive. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts photo message and a map of the Druzhkivka/Konstantinovka directions. Підрозділ Shadow (UA source) video shows drone strike on RF positions, including thermal imaging confirmation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) photo message from "Mad'yar" claims Ukraine has completely destroyed the "Druzhba" oil pipeline. DeepState (UA Source) reports map has been updated. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts photo messages of the Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports a KAB-250 strike with UMPK on AFU infrastructure near Rayskoe. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows an aerial view of a damaged building, likely in a conflict zone, with an explosion targeting the structure. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video provides an aerial view of a damaged train station building and surrounding railway infrastructure in Pokrovsk. The building shows significant signs of destruction, indicating it has been subjected to heavy shelling or bombing. The damage implies potential disruption to transportation and logistics. Colonelcassad (RF source) posted two videos of combat operations in Donbas, featuring drone footage of military targets and engagements, including armored vehicles (BTR, BBM), a communications antenna, and a dugout. This confirms ongoing high-intensity combat with diverse aerial assets employed. Colonelcassad has released new video showing "Adsky Krik" drone operators from the 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment, 5th Army, "Vostok" Group of Forces, destroying enemy armored vehicles, manpower, and drones in the South-Donetsk direction. TASS reports that Southern Grouping fighters destroyed a platoon of "Kholodnyi Yar" militants. Latest RF reporting indicates renewed strikes on Sloviansk. РБК-Україна (UA source) video shows the aftermath of an RF Iskander-M missile strike on Sloviansk, with significant damage to civilian buildings, impacting public morale and requiring immediate humanitarian response. TASS reports a robotic platform of the AFU was destroyed near Konstantinovka, DNR. МоD Russia (RF source) video shows a T-80BVM tank crew from the 'Tsentr' Group eliminating a UA stronghold in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) posts a video claiming "Annihilation of a UAV control point of the AFU in Dimitrov" (likely Dymytriv/Myrnohrad), showing drone footage of a dilapidated building complex. Операция Z (RF source) video shows combat footage from a first-person perspective, likely from a drone or vehicle-mounted camera, showing strikes on an "enemy BMP" and "enemy cover/shelter" near Pokrovsk. TASS (RF source) video shows artillery of the Southern Grouping destroying UA firing positions in Donetsk. Басурин о главном (RF source) video shows drone strike on RF positions. KABs are currently launched towards Donetsk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video shows an FPV drone strike by the 'Hartsuz' group of the 49th Separate Assault Battalion 'Carpathian Sich' on an RF soldier in a damaged house in the Toretsk direction. MoD Russia (RF source) video claims "Vostok" Group of Forces liberated Aleksandrograd in DNR. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports RF MoD's summary of the SVO for 19 AUG 25. Colonelcassad (RF source) video shows FPV-drone operators from the 80th separate reconnaissance battalion "Sparta," 51st Guards Combined Arms Army, detecting and striking a UA UAV control point near Dymytrov (Myrnohrad). This confirms RF's continued targeting of UA C2 and reconnaissance assets. TASS (RF source) video reports on Southern Group forces destroying a robotic platform ferrying ammunition to AFU, indicating RF continues to target UA logistics and automated systems. Воин DV (RF source) video shows a compilation of successful fire strikes against the 3rd Assault Brigade "Azov" of the AFU in the Pokrovsk direction by "Center" Group forces. This video shows drone footage of military operations, including an armored personnel carrier or troop transport moving along a dirt road, engaging targets, with visible explosions and smoke, as well as images of what appear to be mass graves or discarded equipment. This RF claim of significant BDA and success against a key UA assault brigade requires verification but indicates continued offensive pressure and a focus on eliminating high-value UA units. ASTRA (UA source) video shows a military Kamaz truck burning in occupied Donetsk. Cause is unknown. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF claims destruction of a UA M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzer near Myrnohrad by FPV drones from "Rubicon" Center. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Colonelcassad (RF source) video claims to show the destruction of a temporary deployment point (PVD) of the 14th NGU Separate Brigade with a FAB-3000 with UMPK near Dymytrov/Myrnohrad, and a UAV control point of the 34th UA Separate Brigade with a LMUR (Light Multipurpose Guided Missile) near Antonivka, Kherson Oblast. This indicates RF continues large-scale aerial bombing and precision strikes on high-value targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports RF forces issued a tactical update stating they "pushed the AFU out of the eastern part of Serebryanka, DPR, with about 60% of the settlement now under Russian control." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: TASS reports Russian forces have started battles on the southern approaches to Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: TASS video reports that Southern Grouping fighters destroyed two UAV control points and a dug-out of the AFU in DPR. One of the destroyed UAV C2 points is stated to be a communications antenna, indicating a broader target set. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: MoD Russia video indicates RF forces with howitzers and Orlan-10 UAVs destroyed ammunition depots and manpower of AFU units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovskoe Direction): RF claims a "big breakthrough" and liberation of Iskra in DNR. RF forces have reportedly broken through into Zolotyi Kolodyaz, with ongoing fighting, and advanced up to 1.5km towards Sokil from Ocheretyne, threatening a key Ukrainian GLOC. UA sources report stabilization and successful destruction of enemy elements, and Ukrainian paratroopers clearing Pokrovsk of Russian DRGs. UA forces repelled enemy near Rubizhne, Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Vesele, Vilne, Shakhove, Nykanorivka, and Sukhetske. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Poltavka, Volodymyrivka, Fedorivka, Novoekonomichne, Rodynske, Sukhetske, Promin, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Udachne, Dachne, Novoukrayinka, Lysivka, Nykanorivka and towards Filiya in the Pokrovsk direction. Main Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reports successful UA advances for the second consecutive day in Dobropillya and Pokrovsk directions, despite challenges. RF sources are consistently reporting heavy fighting and "destruction" of UA equipment/personal near Pokrovsk. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts photos and video confirming successful UA counter-DRG operations near Pokrovsk. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video of the 425th Regiment "SKALA" showing captured Russian soldiers providing testimony on their unit movements and lack of support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports an attempted assault on Pokrovsk by RF forces utilizing motorcycles. TASS reports that an officer of the press center of the RF 'Vostok' grouping, Aleksei Yakovlev, stated their units have advanced into enemy defenses in Ivankiv, Poltavka, and Zeleny Gay. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted multiple photo messages summarizing the General Staff's report. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Pokrovsk direction as of 18 AUG 25. TASS reports that the National Guard of Ukraine is relocating some units from Kharkiv Oblast to the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. TASS reports that Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi recognized the situation as difficult along the entire contact line, especially in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) posts aerial video of military activity in Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk area. РБК-Україна reports Commander Syrskyi commenting on RF forces near Dobropillya, stating "instead of 'forward, victory' - 'encirclement, end'," suggesting effective UA defense or counter-offensive actions. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) posts thermal imaging video claiming to show RF rocket artillery striking enemy strongholds in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UA source) reports liberation of Zolotyi Kolodyaz and Petrivka in Donetsk Oblast, supported by video evidence of soldiers and captured prisoners, directly countering RF claims of gains. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Poltavka, Vilne, Nove Shakhove, Zapovidne, Novoekonomichne, Myrolubivka, Novoukrayinka, Lysivka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne and towards Volodymyrivka, Rodynske, Chervone Lymanu, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Molodetske in the Pokrovsk direction. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) provides a new General Staff update confirming that UA forces, including the 1st Azov Corps (ZSOU and NGU), have cleared the settlements of Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz in Donetsk Oblast. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA Source) reports on an RF military individual having shot a civilian in the Pokrovsk direction. MoD Russia (RF source) claims flamethrowers from the Tsentr Group wiped out a UA stronghold near Krasnoarmeysk. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports an RF military individual shot a civilian in Rodynske, Pokrovsk direction. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) video claims to show "Rubicon" breaking Ukrainian defenses near Krasnoarmeysk. Филолог в засаде (RF source) posted a video requesting donations for a "night bird" (likely DJI Mavic 3T) for artillery reconnaissance on the Pokrovskoe direction. Сливочный каприз (RF source) provided a photo message of their claimed positions between Dobropillya and Kucherov Yar as of 18 Aug 25. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports intense fighting for Udachne and Pervoye Maya. TASS reports that RF forces gained high tempo advance on Donetsk front, and will soon liberate Krasnoarmeysk and Konstantinovka. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) appeals for donations for "motorized rifle units and special forces" that are "actively advancing." A large map of Ukraine was displayed in the Oval Office during the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) and STERNENKO (UA source) post photo messages of the large map of Ukraine in the Oval Office. Rybar (RF source) posts a tactical map for the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd direction as of 18 AUG 25. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video message showing intense fighting and "holding key heights" on the Dobropillya direction. The video appears to be drone footage showing engagements between opposing forces, including vehicles being targeted and destroyed (BBM, "Baba-Yaga" drone, relay station, truck). This confirms ongoing high-intensity combat. Операция Z (RF source) video shows "Otvazhnye" burning a UA stronghold near Pokrovsk using "Tosochka" (TOS-1A). Rybar (RF source) video provides tactical analysis of "pocket" near Alekseevka and fighting for Udachnoe, indicating active combat and RF analytical focus on these areas. Сливочный каприз (RF source) photo message with caption "18.08.25 Krasnoarmeysk - Poltavka" provides an RF claimed tactical map of the Pokrovsk direction, which can be cross-referenced with UA reports of the fighting. A new RF claimed tactical map for the Pokrovsk direction as of 19 AUG 25, captioned "Krasnoarmeysk - Mayak," indicates continued RF focus on consolidating and expanding territorial gains. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) video shows RF rocket artillery strikes in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, confirming continued RF fire support for offensive operations. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video shows Ukrainian drone operators "sending occupiers to demobilization" in the Pokrovsk direction, showing footage of enemy movement and casualties and highlighting the effectiveness of the 414th UAV Brigade "Birds of Madyar." Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Dorozhnye, Fedorivka, Nykanorivka, Mayak, Rodynske, Novoekonomichne, Chervonyy Lyman, Promin, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Molodetske, Novoukrayinka, Chunyshyne, Volodymyrivka, Dachne, Lysivka and towards Balahan. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video shows soldiers from the 1st separate assault regiment "Da Vinci" material support company near Pokrovsk, thanking donors for funds to purchase two vehicles. This indicates UA is actively resupplying and adapting for combat in this critical sector. Воин DV (RF source) video claims a compilation of successful fire strikes against the 3rd Assault Brigade "Azov" of the AFU in the Pokrovsk direction by "Center" Group forces. This claim needs further verification but aligns with RF's stated offensive focus in this area. Rybar (RF source) has posted a tactical map for Pokrovsk, with the caption "Pokrovsk: line without line," providing an RF claimed view of the combat area as of 19 AUG 25. DeepState (UA Source) reports map has been updated. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) reports "intense fighting" in the Pokrovsk direction, with RF forces having entered Rodynske from Pivnichne. This indicates continued RF offensive pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • WarGonzo (RF Source) provides a tactical map for the Donetsk front as of 19 AUG 25, indicating continuing RF offensive pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Сливочный каприз (RF source) provides a new RF claimed tactical map for the Pokrovsk direction, dated 19 AUG 25, captioned "Krasnoarmeysk - Mayak." This continues to highlight RF focus and claimed advances in this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UA reports capture of an RF prisoner from 150th Division by Azov units, and significant RF losses in Azov's areas. Mandatory evacuation of families with children in Druzhkivka suggests anticipated RF advances or increased threat. Closure of Ukrposhta branches in Konstantinovka from August 19 further indicates increasing threat to this logistics hub. Clashes reported near Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, Oleksandra-Kalynove, and Pleschiyivka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Pleschiyivka, Stepanivka, Yablunivka and Rusyn Yar in the Toretsk direction. STERNENKO (UA source) reports that Phoenix UAS tactical group is "cutting Russian logistics" in the Konstantinovka direction. Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) claims RF 4th OMCBR continues to attack towards Delievka – Aleksandro-Shulgino and attempts to break through and consolidate in Belaya Hora. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Toretsk, Scherbynivka and towards Oleksandro-Shultyne, Pleschiyivka, Rusyn Yar in thetsk direction, as well as Poltavka and Berestok. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts a tactical map for the Konstantinovka direction, indicating continued RF focus on this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports that Kyiv is preparing a series of strikes on Kramatorsk, blaming Russia. This is a RF information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled three enemy attacks near Druzhba, Chasiv Yar, and Bila Hora in the Kramatorsk direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled four enemy attacks near Pivnichne, Pivdenne, and Niu York in the Toretsk direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video shows a tank engaging a building, likely occupied by RF forces, indicating continued UA efforts to clear entrenched enemy positions. The commentary specifies RF refusal to surrender from a basement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Luhansk Oblast (Siversk Direction): RF forces report combat operations with drone-guided artillery and ATGM teams. RF MoD claims destruction of AFU stronghold in Krasny Liman direction. RF aims to advance 2 km to close a "fire bag" for AFU in Kremensky forests. Russian forces reportedly broke through Ukrainian defense lines in the Lyman district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Serebryanka, Siversk, Vyyimka, Fedorivka, Pereyizne and towards Siversk in the Siversk direction. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Kolodezi in Donetsk People's Republic (Luhansk direction). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 63rd Brigade utilizing three FPV drones to neutralize a Russian tank threatening Ukrainian positions east of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast. RF MoD confirms liberation of Kolodezi and Voronoye. Colonelcassad reports on mobile fire groups operating in Belgorod Oblast and Luhansk People's Republic. TASS reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including foreign mercenaries, suffered 4,500 personnel losses in the past week on the Luhansk People's Republic borders, with the Southern Group of Forces inflicting the most damage. TASS claims that Kyiv has struck Lisichansk, LPR, more than 10 times in the past week, resulting in civilian casualties. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Luhansk direction as of 18 AUG 25. Сливочный каприз (RF source) posts a summary of combat operations between August 14-17, 2025, which likely includes the Luhansk direction. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Fedorivka and Vyyimka in the Siversk direction, as well as Serebrianka and Vyimka. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) has provided a photo message of a tactical map for the Siversk direction. Mash na Donbasse reports over 1000 residents of Kamyshnoye and Gerasimovka without power due to a severe fire in LPR. Сливочный каприз (RF source) photo messages with caption "19.08.25 Siversk - Vyyemka" provides RF claimed tactical map of the Siversk direction. Сливочный каприз (RF source) video demonstrates active combat operations in the Siversk direction, including drone strikes on enemy positions and personnel, confirming ongoing high-intensity engagements. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video shows 63rd Mechanized Brigade destroying RF assault groups in the Lyman direction. Colonelcassad (RF source) has posted a tactical map for the Seversk direction as of 19 AUG 25, captioned "Series of successes," which highlights RF claimed gains. New intel indicates RF video footage of military vehicle (likely truck or personnel carrier) moving through wooded area. Target is tracked and "TARGET CAPTURED" (ЦЕЛЬ ЗАХВАЧЕНА) displayed in Russian. Rybar (RF source) has posted a tactical map depicting military activity in the Severky Donets direction, dated August 19, 2025, at 19:00, showing color-coded territorial control and combat areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled five enemy attacks near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Vyimka, and Rozdolivka in the Lyman direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled nine enemy attacks near Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Vyimka, and Rozdolivka in the Siversk direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) reports "intense combat" and "breakthrough attempts" in the Lyman direction, with RF forces actively regrouping and bringing additional forces, likely from the 8th Combined Arms Army. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports that RF forces "pushed the AFU out of the eastern part of Serebryanka, DPR, with about 60% of the settlement now under Russian control." This refers to Serebryanka in Luhansk Oblast (often referred to as DNR in RF sources). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • WarGonzo (RF Source) provides a tactical map for the Krasnolimanskoye (Lyman) Direction as of 19 AUG 25, indicating continuing RF offensive pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Сливочный каприз (RF source) provides a tactical map for "Krasny Liman - Kirovsk (Zarechnoye)" dated 20 AUG 25. This indicates continued RF focus and claimed activity in this specific area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: РБК-Україна reports that Ukrainian military personnel are explaining that the enemy is undertaking "dozens of attacks in one go" in the Lyman direction. This confirms the high intensity of RF pressure on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): Sustained RF artillery and FPV drone attacks on Nikopol and surrounding communities. RF claims control of all settlements at the junction of DNR and Dnipropetropavsk Oblast after liberation of Iskra. Extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Nikopol confirmed. Ballistic missile strike on outskirts of Dnipro confirmed with damage to civilian property. Overnight drone attack on Pokrovska community, Synelnykivskyi district, caused fires at agricultural enterprises. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Voronoye in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetropavsk Regional State Administration) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopolshchyna. A ballistic missile threat on Synelnykove and a high-speed target from the east on Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Explosions were heard in Pavlohrad. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports destruction of a UA T-72 tank by an FPV drone in Ivanivka, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected near Pavlohrad, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a drone (UAV) threat to Pavlohrad. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "powerful explosions" in Pavlohrad. TASS (RF source) claims UA forces in Iskra, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, killed an elderly female civilian. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropropetropavsk Regional State Administration) reports that RF struck Pavlohrad with a missile overnight, causing a fire. Воин DV (RF source) video footage from an aerial platform with thermal imaging, focused on a wooded area on the border of Dnipropetropavsk Oblast and DNR, targeting what appears to be personnel or equipment. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces struck Pavlohrad Repair and Mechanical Plant and Technical Equipment Plant. MoD Russia (RF source) video of servicemen from the Vostok Group of Forces describing the liberation of Iskra in Donetsk People's Republic. Mash на Донbasse (RF source) posts a UA UAV attacked a gas station in Yenakiieve, DNR. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports that UA forces inflicted a successful strike on a gas station in Yenakiieve. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports a substation hit by a "Geran" drone in Mezhove, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video of a burning power substation in Mezhove, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetropavsk Regional State Administration) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol, Marhanets, and Pokrovske communities throughout the day. Photos show damaged civilian buildings. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetropavsk and Donetsk Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of strike UAVs in eastern Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, heading towards Pavlohrad. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 1 "moped" (Shahed) heading towards Dnipro. UA Air Defense reports 7 enemy UAVs shot down over Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. ASTRA (UA source) reports one person injured after Russian attacks in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports the "SKALA" Regiment conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropropetropavsk and Donetsk Oblasts, confirming UA tactical gains. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) video claims destruction of a French "Caesar" self-propelled howitzer and an ammunition vehicle in the Dnipropetropavsk border region by "Vostok" Group of Forces, signaling continued RF focus on Western-supplied artillery. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video depicts a large building complex engulfed in flames and thick black smoke after overnight Shahed attacks in the Synelnykive district. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a photo message showing a tactical map for the Dnipropetrovsk direction. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in eastern Dnipropetropavsk. Colonelcassad (RF source) video shows a Lancet strike on a French CAESAR SPG in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, confirming the targeting and destruction of high-value Western-supplied artillery. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports aviation weapon threat for Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports an explosion in Pavlohrad. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetropavsk Regional State Administration) reports drone attacks on Pavlohrad overnight, causing fire and damage to a transport enterprise, with no casualties. This confirms continued RF targeting of transport infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts photos showing damaged residential buildings in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming the impact of RF shelling on civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports aviation weapon threat for Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video claims to show FPV drone operators from the "Vostok" Group of Forces actively targeting enemy personnel in the Khoroshe (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) area, indicating RF offensive actions and counter-rotation efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkivskyi District): UA Air Force alerts for high-speed targets and KAB launches. RF claims improved position near Krasny Perviy, controlling ~6 km of road to Dvorechnaya. A substantial increase (estimated 40%) in Russian EW emissions has been detected in the Kharkiv sector, primarily targeting Ukrainian reconnaissance UAVs and degrading ISR capabilities. Continued RF reconnaissance UAVs in northern and eastern Kharkiv Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Khatnye and Fyholivka in the South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction, and also Hlyboke, Kamyanka, Ambarne. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 4 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes in the past day. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. РБК-Україна reports 11 casualties in Kharkiv from recent RF attack. Олег Синєгубов, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, reports 3 additional casualties, bringing total to 11. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates the 11 casualties. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration (UA source), provided multiple photo messages showing damaged civilian residential buildings. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "continuing to pound Kharkiv" with "powerful explosions." РБК-Україна reports an explosion heard in Kharkiv. Mayor Igor Terekhov confirms "Shahed" hits in Industrialnyi district. Oleg Syniehubov confirms two casualties (25-year-old male, 79-year-old female) from drone strike. Subsequent reports from Oleg Syniehubov indicate 10-year-old boy, 19-year-old girl, 46-year-old male, and 47-year-old female hospitalized. Mayor Igor Terekhov reports one fatality and five injured. Kharkiv now reports four fatalities (up from three), including a one-year-old child and a 55-year-old woman, and 17 injured (including 6 children). Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) reports 5 people are currently missing. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and РБК-УкраїНА (UA source) have released additional video footage showing the ongoing search and rescue operation. ASTRA (UA source) has released photos and a drone video showing the extensive destruction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports on the drone attack on a residential high-rise. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА reports a 16-year-old boy became the fourth victim. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports five fatalities. STERNENKO (UA source) corroborates five fatalities. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates five fatalities. Север.Реалії (UA source) reports at least four fatalities. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) reports enemy strikes on Kharkiv and 10 settlements. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports five fatalities and at least 30 injured. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) reports the number of injured has increased to 20. ASTRA (UA source) also reports 30 injured. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts video and photo messages of the aftermath. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) declares August 18 a day of mourning. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports the number of injured has increased to 20. ASTRA (UA source) reports the number of fatalities has increased to 6. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) confirms 6 fatalities. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts an informational message. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the number of fatalities has risen to 7. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates 7 fatalities. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) also confirms 7 fatalities. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts video of border guards liquidating 5 enemy targets. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and Рыбарь (RF source) both post video of a military convoy with RF and US flags. ASTRA (UA source) posts video of a Russian attack on Kharkiv from the city's mayor. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video of Kharkiv mayor showing morning Shahed strikes. РБК-УкраїНА (UA source) posts video of Kharkiv mayor showing the moment of a Russian strike. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts video of Kharkiv, claiming "Tests continue. Be good!". ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing the moment of an RF strike on a residential building. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video showing medics attempting to resuscitate a small child. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, reports an additional three people sought medical attention, bringing total to 23. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts multiple photo messages indicating effective UA drone reconnaissance by the 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade. Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) has provided a photo message warning of fire danger. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on northern Kharkiv Oblast. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 24 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes last week. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video footage of a series of impacts in Kharkiv. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports that "Khartia" drones successfully located and struck an RF camp in Kharkiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts three photo messages depicting a battle map of the Kharkiv direction. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) posts a photo message celebrating Ukrainian leadership. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video showing civilian structures being transported by trucks at night. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a video of a formal gathering of international dignitaries, including Zelenskyy and Trump. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows drone operators of the 3rd Assault Brigade dropping munitions on RF in Kharkiv Oblast. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast is under bomb strike and threat of strike UAVs. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports RF KAB strikes on Ruska Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows 3rd Assault Brigade drone operators striking RF positions in Kharkiv Oblast while peace talks are ongoing. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast under bomb strike and UAV threat. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. A high-speed target is moving through Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast, likely a cruise missile. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Another high-speed target reported in Kharkiv Oblast, same course. UA sources report 4 missiles from Kharkiv Oblast now over Poltava Oblast, heading towards Kremenchuk. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 16 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast sustained enemy strikes yesterday. TASS reports RF forces struck two UA locations in Khatnye and Chuhunivka, Kharkiv Oblast. Олексій Білошицький (UA source) video confirms ongoing rescue operations and significant damage in Kharkiv following drone strikes, highlighting continued RF attacks on civilian infrastructure. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a photo of a multi-story residential building in Kharkiv, extensively damaged, implying a successful RF strike. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports a Russian serviceman will be tried in Kharkiv Oblast for shooting Ukrainian soldiers at the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the new commander of the 13th NGU Brigade "Khartia" is Major Daniel "Cuba" Kitone. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) posts photos of humanitarian aid being delivered to military personnel on the Kharkiv direction. Colonelcassad (RF source) video shows an FPV drone strike by RF "Sever" Group on a building with AFU militants in Tsapovka, Kharkiv Oblast. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 video shows 9 direct hits by "STRIX" unit on the South-Slobozhanskyi direction, with drone footage of targeted enemy positions, a communication tower, and a vehicle, confirming ongoing successful UA strikes. STERNENKO (UA source) reports an FPV drone strike by RF forces on an emergency medical vehicle in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, indicating a continued disregard for protected civilian assets. ASTRA (UA source) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) both confirm a Russian drone strike on an ambulance in Kupyansk, injuring two people. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts multiple photo messages of military training (obstacle course) for psychological and physical preparation. A group of UAVs from Kharkiv Oblast is now heading towards Poltava Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports RF forces have started battles for taking Hlushchenkovo, Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled five enemy attacks near Vovchansk and Kamianka in the South Slobozhansky direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • WarGonzo (RF Source) provides a tactical map for the Kharkov direction as of 19 AUG 25, indicating continuing RF offensive pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat to Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Chernihiv Oblast: UA Air Force alerts for enemy reconnaissance UAVs, high-speed targets, and threat of strike UAVs. "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on a forward Ukrainian command post in Birino area confirmed. Ballistic missile impact in Honcharivske reported. RF claims destruction of a foreign mercenary legion's base. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Krasnyy Khutir of Chernihiv region, and Polushkyne, Karabany. Colonelcassad reports Kinzhal strike near Desna and Geran/Gerbera strikes near Semenivka (Chernihiv Oblast). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV threat to Brovary and Boryspil districts in Kyiv Oblast and a UAV threat to Kyiv. Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy UAVs on northern Chernihiv Oblast and in the Pryluky area. НгП раZVедка (RF source) claims "Geran" drones are "drilling" Chernihiv Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports enemy UAVs attacked Kyiv Oblast overnight, damaging a hangar in Boryspil district. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Chernihiv Oblast. MoD Russia (RF source) video claiming Geran-2 UAVs hit AFU special forces units of GUR near Zhadovo, Chernihiv region, and also an AFU forward command post near Birino. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UA source) reports UAVs in central Chernihiv Oblast near Pryluky. Операция Z (RF source) posts video claiming Geran strikes hit GUR special forces in Chernihiv. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy strike UAV on northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. UA Air Force reports a UAV threat in Chernihiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces struck a training center in Chernihiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for Chernihiv Oblast has been lifted. Latest UA Air Force reports an enemy UAV on Chernihiv Oblast. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports that RF drones attacked Chernihiv Oblast this morning, causing power outages in some settlements, confirming continued RF drone activity in the area and immediate civilian impact. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) corroborates that parts of Chernihiv Oblast are without electricity after the morning UAV attack, further confirming the immediate civilian impact. New Intel: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a reconnaissance UAV in Chernihiv Oblast near Berezna. Interception measures are engaged. The Air Force stresses that this UAV can be a spotter for enemy fire assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Unidentified UAV activity reported in northern Chernihiv Oblast. UAV heading towards Novgorod-Siverskyi, Borzna (Chernihiv Oblast). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts, with interception measures engaged. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • A UAV from Sumy Oblast is heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kherson Oblast (Left Bank Dnieper): UA reports destruction of an RF ammunition depot and four vehicles on the left bank. RF claims Lancet strike destroyed US M-777 howitzer and Ukrainian Bogdana SPG on right bank. Ukrainian Navy radio intercepts confirm loss of Russian Su-30SM fighter jet southeast of Snake Island. UA forces repelled 4-6 Russian army assaults. UA source claims reconnaissance units entered "Novaya Kakhovka" on the Kherson direction and are shelling enemy defenses. Southern Ukraine Defense Forces report continued strikes on enemy deployment areas, fire positions, and rear areas in the southern operational zone. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports strikes on Khadzhibeevka and Usatove (Odesa region), specifically targeting "marine BECs" and a 330kv power substation. TASS (RF source) claims that the "Kyiv-appointed" administration of Kherson has long since left the city and is operating remotely from Mykolaiv. TASS reports that the AFU lost a Starlink satellite communication station and 17 UAV control points in the zone of responsibility of the 'Vostok' grouping in the past 24 hours. Два майора (RF source) posts thermal imaging footage claiming to show activity in Kherson at night. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) provides operational information for the Southern Defense Forces. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Kherson direction as of 18 AUG 25. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction, and also clashes near Antonivsky bridge, Dniprovske, and near Bilohrudyy island. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of explosions and vehicle activity in the Kherson direction. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows artillerymen of the 49th Army hitting fortifications on the right bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson region. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) photo message provides operational information for the Southern Defense Forces as of 08:00 19 AUG 25, indicating continued UA monitoring and defense in the southern operational zone. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) photo message with caption "⚡️⚡️Сили оборони Півдня України продовжують уражати місця дислокації ворога, його вогневі позиції та тили." confirms ongoing UA deep strikes and counter-battery fire in the Southern operational zone. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) video shows a fire at a forestry enterprise near Chulakivka in Kherson Oblast, with plumes of smoke, confirming environmental impact from burning vegetation, likely related to conflict activity. Kotsnews (RF source) video depicts RF military medics operating in the Kherson direction, showcasing newly supplied evacuation equipment. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (UA source) video shows FPV operators of the "B.G" unit (Crimean SBU directorate) striking RF personnel on Kinburn Spit, confirming UA special operations and drone effectiveness in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Colonelcassad (RF source) video claims destruction of a UAV control point of the 34th UA Separate Brigade with a LMUR (Light Multipurpose Guided Missile) near Antonivka, Kherson Oblast. This indicates RF precision targeting of UA C2 elements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Rybar (RF source) video analysis shows ongoing battles near Aleshki and strikes on Kherson, depicting UA attempts to establish bridgeheads and RF counter-battery/air strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled three enemy attacks near Pishchanivka, Podstepne, and Krynky in the Kherson direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ASTRA reports one woman was injured in a Russian attack in Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Воин DV (RF source) video shows RF drone operators from the 5th Army, Vostok Group of Forces, destroying enemy personnel and equipment in the Vremevskoye direction (Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia border region), not Kherson. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) provides an updated operational summary for the Southern Defense Forces, indicating continued UA efforts to target enemy locations, fire positions, and rear areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Mykolaiv Oblast: РБК-Україна (UA source) reports an RF missile hit an ancient Jewish cemetery in Pervomaisk, Mykolaiv Oblast. This indicates continued RF targeting of civilian and cultural sites. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) also reports on the situation in Mykolaiv. RF activity has increased significantly in Mykolaiv Oblast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missile danger in Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts. Николаевский Ванёк reports ballistic missile (later corrected to Smerch MLRS) targeting Bilozerka, Mykolaiv Oblast. UA Air Force reports a high-speed target in Mykolaiv Oblast. Another Smerch MLRS strike reported on Bilozerka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Odesa Oblast: STERNENKO reports groups of strike UAVs in the north and near Odesa Oblast. РБК-Україна reports an alert from Odesa Oblast Military Administration calling residents to shelters due to strike UAVs. STERNENKO reports Odesa is under a massive "Shahed" drone attack, with explosions heard. Николаевский Ванёк reports reduction in drone numbers near Odesa. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports continued drone threats in Velyka Balka-Nerubaiske and Radisne-Velykyi Dalnyk (Odesa Oblast). ASTRA reports a large fire in Odesa after a massive Shahed strike. Операция Z (RF source) posts multiple photo and video messages reporting "powerful strikes on enemy objects in Odesa, fires in the city." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports that RF drones struck a Nova Poshta terminal in Odesa. Дневник Десантника (RF source) claims that their strike UAVs hit "several objects" in Odesa overnight. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна (UA source) confirm an RF drone strike on a fuel and energy infrastructure object and a two-story building in the suburbs of Odesa. ASTRA reports a fire on a fuel and energy infrastructure object in Odesa Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) reports Odesa was attacked by Shaheds all night. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video of the aftermath of strikes on an alleged SOCAR oil depot in Odesa Oblast. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims Geran drones destroyed a "giant fuel terminal" of SOCAR. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) reports 24 Shahed UAVs destroyed by Southern Defense Forces. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a map/graphic titled "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine August 17 - August 18, 2025," which likely includes Odesa. Colonelcassad also posts video of an explosion with "kurs_odessa" watermark. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video claiming a massive Shahed attack on SOCAR oil depot in Odesa Oblast. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims "Azerbaijani fuel tanks extinguished." Colonelcassad (RF source) comments that overnight strikes in Odesa targeted Nova Poshta objects and SOCAR. Два майора (RF source) posts video of significant damage to industrial or storage tanks in Odesa. Colonelcassad (RF source) also posts video showing the aftermath of attacks on SOCAR in Odesa. Операция Z (RF source) provides photos of a large fire, likely in Odesa. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows a significant fire at the SOCAR oil depot. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts photos showing a large fire at the SOCAR oil depot in Odesa. Kotsnews (RF source) posts videos confirming significant damage and fires. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) also posts video of the aftermath of the SOCAR oil depot strike. Два майора (RF source) has posted a photo message regarding Romania's desire to expand joint Black Sea patrolling with Bulgaria and Turkey. Colonelcassad (RF source) provides a summary of strikes. WarGonzo (RF source) posted videos showing the aftermath of the SOCAR strike in Odesa. STERNENKO video shows aerial footage likely from a drone, observing an area with what appear to be defensive positions or fortifications. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha reacting to the RF strike on the SOCAR oil depot. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile arrival in Dobroslav. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target on Odesa Oblast, heading northwest. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video shows multiple plumes of black smoke rising from various urban locations, likely Odesa, implying significant fires/explosions. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports the SBU uncovered an RF military intelligence agent group that coordinated shelling of Kyiv and carried out sabotage in Odesa Oblast. This indicates continued RF attempts at covert action in the region. An enemy reconnaissance UAV has been detected in the Black Sea waters near Odesa Oblast, with interception measures engaged. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF destroyed a UA radio point in Odesa Oblast using an Iskander missile. New intelligence indicates multiple ballistic missile launches towards Odesa Oblast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirms missile threat to Odesa. Explosions have been heard in Odesa. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports several groups of UAVs from Black Sea waters heading to Odesa Oblast. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports a "powerful Iskander strike" in Odesa destroyed a German IRIS-T SLM air defense system position. Николаевский Ванёк reports 17 "mopeds" (Shahed) from the sea heading towards/through Tatarbunary. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports ballistic missile arrival against a UA air defense position in Odesa. Николаевский Ванёк reports 20 "mopeds" from Tatarbunary heading to Izmailsky district, and that the first 6 "mopeds" are approaching Izmail. Powerful fire in Izmail (Odesa Oblast) after "Geran" (Shahed) activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • "Night Storm over the Danube: Strike on AFU fuel arteries in Izmail" reported by RF source. This confirms the target of the previous Shahed activity in Izmail and its impact on UA logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports overnight enemy attacks on Izmail, Odesa Oblast, and Okhtyrka, Sumy Oblast, with fires successfully contained and no casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (РБК-Україна source) reports destroying 5 Shaheds overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • WarGonzo (RF source) video shows Russian drones destroying an oil depot near Izmail, confirming the successful strike on a fuel storage facility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports a mass UAV attack on fuel and energy infrastructure in Odesa Oblast, causing one injury. This confirms RF targeting of critical infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ASTRA (UA source) reports one person injured as a result of the attack on Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ASTRA (UA source) provides photos of infrastructure damage in Izmail after the Russian attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Военкор Котенок (RF source) confirms destruction of Triton oil depot in Izmail and damage to Excellion tanker by 30-40 drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Alex Parker Returns photo message claims 30 "Geranium" drones struck the Triton oil depot in Odesa Oblast, destroying reservoirs of Azerbaijani oil, linking it to a shift in political directives. This is likely an RF information operation with potential for operational impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Colonelcassad video shows additional footage of the burning oil depot in Izmail, corroborating the extensive damage to critical fuel infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RF claims destruction of AFU ammunition depot. 578 RF strikes on 14 settlements over past day. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and also near Novoandriyivka in Orikhiv direction, and Prymorske, Novoandriyivka. A 64-year-old man was wounded in a hostile attack on Polohivskyi district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Tolstoy, Komyshuvakha, Zelene Pole, Maliyivka, Myrne, Zaporizhzhke, Olhivske in the Novopavlivka direction, and also near Kamyanske and Novoandriyivka in the Orikhiv direction, as well as Zirka, Vilne Pole, Voskresenka, Shevchenko, Novodarivka, Olhivske, Novopil, Zelene Pole, Maliyivka, Shevchenko and towards Oleksandrohrad and Komyshuvakha. Colonelcassad reports VKC and missile forces conducted strikes on targets in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Total power outage in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to UA UAV strikes on high-voltage lines. TASS reports power outage did not affect ZNPP operation. Colonelcassad reports RF's 57th Motor Rifle Brigade "Vostok" destroying UA material and technical means, including Starlink terminals. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA Air Defense is working in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts, with interception measures engaged. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF forces launched 583 strikes on 11 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports electricity supply in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been restored, confirming previous outages due to UA UAV strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ASTRA (UA source) also reports electricity supply restored across occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled 10 enemy attacks near Novodarivka, Olhivske, Novopil, Zelene Pole, and Maliyivka in the Novopavlivka direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗS_U (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled three enemy attacks near Verbove, Novodanilivka, and Pyatykhatky in the Orikhiv direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA forces from the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade are actively destroying enemy "Molniya-2" and "Zala" UAVs and "mechanical zoo" of RF, indicating successful counter-drone and counter-vehicle operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • WarGonzo (RF Source) provides a tactical map for the Zaporizhzhia front as of 19 AUG 25, indicating continuing RF offensive pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration holds a daily minute of silence at 09:00 to honor fallen defenders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports a 65-year-old woman was wounded in a hostile attack on Polohivskyi district. This confirms continued RF shelling of civilian targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Zaporizhzhia direction, dated 20 AUG 25, implying active combat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kupyansk Axis: Previous reports indicated a decisive shift of RF main effort with the capture of Ivanivka. RF continues strikes on settlements. UA reports successful tank sorties and drone operations against RF personnel and equipment. Commander of "Achilles" Regiment Fedorenko (UA source) reports RF plans to occupy Kupyansk by August 24. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports the first mechanized attack by RF on the left bank of Kupyansk in a long time. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Kupyansk direction as of 18 AUG 25. STERNENKO (UA source) reports that 905 drones has been delivered to the Defense Forces in the last two days. Николаевский Ванёк reports a new "singing" RF prisoner was taken under Muravka, Donetsk Oblast, identified as Vladimir Sergeevich from the 35th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. TASS reports the head of Kharkiv VGA Ganchev claims Russian forces are encircling Kupyansk. Воин DV (RF source) video shows aerial footage of an ongoing military engagement impacting a rural or semi-rural landscape, with multiple explosions visible, confirming continued RF operations near Novosyolovka in the Kupyansk direction. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Holubivka, Kupyansk, Petropavlivka, Moskovka and Zahryzove. TASS (RF source) reports that military expert Andrey Marochko states RF forces have started battles near Sobolevka and are advancing towards Blagodatovka near Kupyansk. Сливочный каприз (RF source) posts tactical maps for Kupyansk - Zaoskolye as of 19 AUG 25, implying active combat or planned operations in this specific area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports RF forces have entered Sobolevka in Kharkiv Oblast, and some UA forces attempted to flee. This indicates RF continues offensive actions in the Kupyansk area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled two enemy attacks near Kupyansk and Zahryzove in the Kupyansk direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • WarGonzo (RF Source) provides a tactical map for the Kupyansk direction as of 19 AUG 25, indicating continuing RF offensive pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Sumy Oblast: РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian forces actively destroying the enemy in Sumy Oblast, pushing back Russians near Oleksiivka and Yunakivka. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of a destroyed UA M577 command post vehicle in Sumy Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing an RF truck with ammunition epically destroyed by a Ukrainian drone on the way to Sumy Oblast. TASS reports that RF forces have improved their tactical position near Yunakovka, Sumy Oblast. Операция Z (RF source) thermal imagery video claims successful destruction of UA armored vehicles by Spetsnaz "Anvar" and VDV units supporting an offensive on Sumy. РБК-Україна reports a 57-year-old woman injured by a KAB strike on Novoslobidska community, Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new UAVs on northern Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports a missile strike on Sumy. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted photo messages confirming a missile strike on an educational institution. НгП раZVедка (RF source) posts a mocking caption suggesting RF strikes or activity in Shostka. RF reconnaissance UAVs are operating near Putyvl. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Sumy. РБК-Україна reports a series of explosions. Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 new RF UAVs detected east of Bilopillya. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports continued RF attacks on Sumy. Colonelcassad shares video footage from the 68th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th Army, Western Military District. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs. UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs. TASS (RF source) claims that Ukrainian Armed Forces command in Sumy Oblast has committed all resources to outflank RF forces in Yunakivka. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video showing two individuals in a wooded area with abandoned cars and a quad bike, claiming it depicts RF forces marauding in border villages of Kursk Oblast. Kotsnews (RF source) posts video with caption "Syrsky: Kursk - best result among all major operations," which is an RF information operation. MoD Russia (RF source) video claiming a BM-21 Grad MLRS crew eliminated a manpower cluster. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts video of a Lancet loitering munition preparation and strike. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, with 7 repelled assaults. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University. РБК-Україна (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University. Alex Parker Returns (RF) claims the Sumy State University was hit by a "Flamingo missile." Два майора (RF source) posts video showing an RF FPV drone strike. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy strike UAV on northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. RF activity on the Sumy direction, with an aerial view of an exploding vehicle. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) asserts that RF forces have been defeated in Sumy Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a video of drone-guided artillery or air strikes. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) amplifies Syrsky's (misquoted) statements. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts a photo message showing activity on the Eastern Direction. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports a severe injury to an RF General in Kursk Oblast from a HIMARS strike. New Intel: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video from local residents showing a visual confirmation of RF "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on Sumy State University. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAV threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS (RF source) claims that military expert Yan Gagin states AFU unsuccessfully counterattack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) MoD Russia (RF source) video shows Uragan MLRS crews eliminating AFU armored vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) MoD Russia (RF source) video shows T-80BVM tanks of the Sever Group of Forces eliminating AFU hardware. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF has again attacked civilian infrastructure in Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast moving south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of enemy UAVs on the north, east, and south of Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) An explosion was heard in Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Sumy Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UA source) video indicates UA forces are expanding their buffer zone in the Sumy region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) video shows two individuals in a wooded area, likely RF personnel, but content is general and not highly specific to Sumy operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO (UA source) posts a photo message with incendiary content, implying attacks on Russian border regions, which is a PSYOP. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat from the northeast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts a photo message showing a battlefield map for the Sumy direction, indicating active counterattacks by VSU and the use of SU-27 fighter jets for strikes on RF positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Hirky of Sumy region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in central Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts photo messages claiming foreign mercenaries were destroyed in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Старше Эдды (RF source) posts photo messages claiming Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups (SRG) attempted an infiltration into Bryansk Oblast, resulting in 3 killed and 3 captured (including a Ukrainian SOF captain) by SOBR and FSB. This RF claim indicates continued UA deep strike/reconnaissance efforts into RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) and Операция Z (RF source) repost images and claims regarding the alleged Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast. This indicates a coordinated RF information operation regarding perceived Ukrainian incursions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad (RF source) also reposts the claim regarding the alleged Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast, confirming widespread RF dissemination of this information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad (RF source) video claims to show the destruction of a temporary deployment point (PVD) and an armored fighting vehicle (BBM) of the 116th Territorial Defense Brigade (TrO) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, using a "Forpost" UAV in Obody, Sumy Oblast. This indicates continued RF targeting of UA rear assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO (UA source) reports on PERUN Industries operating in Sumy Oblast, likely an arms or drone manufacturing facility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New intel: KAB launches by RF tactical aviation reported on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a photo message showing a tactical map for the Sumy direction. The caption suggests ongoing combat activity in the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO (UA source) reports drone safety zones in multiple RF oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports that law enforcement agencies claim that the occupation of part of Kursk Oblast by the Armed Forces of Ukraine was enabled by the embezzlement of funds during the construction of fortifications. This is a significant RF information operation, blaming corruption for military setbacks and indirectly acknowledging Ukrainian presence in Kursk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New groups of UAVs reported entering Sumy Oblast, heading towards Khotyn. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports a massive enemy strike on a private sector area in Okhtyrka community, Sumy Oblast, with no casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ASTRA (UA source) reports 12 people injured in Okhtyrka, Sumy Oblast, following an RF attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • РБК-Україна (UA source) reports a massive enemy drone strike on Okhtyrka, Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports that a heavy mechanized brigade of the AFU is being withdrawn from under Sumy due to losses. This is an RF information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports that special companies of the "Shkval" battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, recruited from prisoners with acute infectious diseases, have arrived in Sumy Oblast. This is a RF information operation intended to demoralize UA and create fear. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled nine enemy attacks near Hrabovske, Myropillya, Pokrovka, and Popivka in the Sumy direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • A UAV from Sumy Oblast is heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Север.Реалии (UA source) reports Russian forces attacked Okhtyrka in Sumy Oblast with drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ASTRA (UA source) reports 12 people injured in Sumy Oblast after a Russian attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video depicts two individuals in military uniform with a "trophy" red civilian car, which they claim to have "looted with the guys." This indicates a potential instance of RF forces engaging in looting, which can impact local civilian sentiment and highlight disciplinary issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports consequences of mass enemy UAV attacks on Sumy and Odesa regions, with photos confirming widespread damage to civilian infrastructure, including a burning building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Poltava Oblast: Poltava and its community without electricity after massive overnight attack. RF drones attacked a gas transportation system facility and Kremenchuk oil refinery, causing extensive fires and smoke plumes. Unexploded cluster munitions found in Kremenchuk. Supply of Russian oil through "Druzhba" pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia suspended due to UA UAV attacks (now reportedly resumed). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • A UAV from Poltava Oblast is heading towards Myrhorod. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Poltava OVA explains that a radiation alarm was mistakenly triggered instead of an air raid alarm. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by RF tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast, with a high-speed target moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast (likely a cruise missile). UA sources report 4 missiles from Kharkiv Oblast now over Poltava Oblast, heading towards Kremenchuk. Groups of enemy strike UAVs from northern Kharkiv Oblast are primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. This confirms Poltava and Kremenchuk remain significant targets for RF deep strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kyiv Oblast: Car explosion in Podilskyi district, Kyiv, claimed by RF as "Ukrainian partisans" blowing up a military vehicle. Enemy UAVs attacked Kyiv Oblast overnight, damaging a hangar in Boryspil district. Multiple air raid alerts due to MiG-31K takeoffs and ballistic missile threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kyiv Military Administration reports a minute of silence is held daily at 09:00 to honor fallen defenders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts photos showing construction of a dual-purpose shelter at school #186 for 1060 people, indicating continued efforts to protect civilians from attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Overall Frontline: RF continues employment of FPV drone swarms and Lancet loitering munitions, with a reported 20% increase in Lancet strikes. UA inflicted significant personnel losses (1010 RF personnel in the last 24h, total 276,300 since year start; 890 RF personnel liquidated in the last 24 hours). UA deep strikes into RF territory include the Syzran Oil Refinery (Samara Oblast), Olya seaport (Astrakhan Oblast), the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast, and a drone attack on Azot chemical plant in Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol Krai. 61 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed by UA. Prisoner exchange of 84 servicemen conducted. Tu-95MS strategic bombers are airborne, indicating potential for new missile launches. RF sources confirm Trump's phone call with Putin and the initiation of preparation for a tripartite meeting. Trump, European leaders, and Zelenskyy will hold another virtual meeting. Zelenskyy confirmed an arms deal with the US, proposing to purchase $90 billion in weapons. Zelenskyy stated he is ready for unconditional talks with Putin, leaving territorial questions to them. Security guarantees for Ukraine are planned to be formulated within 7-10 days. Macron discussed strengthening sanctions if Russia refuses to end the conflict and hopes for a trilateral meeting. NATO Secretary General Rutte stated there is an irreversible path for Ukraine into NATO, but membership is not currently discussed; arms supplies will continue through NATO countries. No discussion of Ukrainian territorial concessions at White House. Putin has spoken with nine foreign leaders in three days. Non-European countries will also participate in formulating security guarantees. ASTRA reports Ursula von der Leyen's statement on return of abducted Ukrainian children. TASS reports 23 UA UAVs shot down over RF and annexed Crimea overnight. RF MoD reports 23 UAVs shot down overnight. РФ reports 236/280 enemy targets shot down/suppressed by UA. RF intelligence claims a US M113 APC with RF and US flags is operating in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reports a large Starlink outage. Joint statement after Trump-Zelenskyy talks cancelled. Trump suggests Putin agreed to security guarantees for Ukraine and that territory exchange based on current front lines needs discussion. Trump believes RF will no longer attack Ukraine and expresses confidence in releasing over a thousand POWs soon. Macron proposes a four-way meeting. The "Druzhba" oil pipeline (Nikolske station) has resumed operations after UA drone strike. Putin reportedly proposed meeting Zelenskyy in Moscow during his call with Trump. Germany is working with partners on security guarantees for Ukraine. Politico reports US considering Hungary for a Putin-Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. TASS reports RF forces shot down 42 Ukrainian UAVs overnight over Russian regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Vologograd Airport restrictions lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Tambov Airport temporarily restricted for flights. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Nizhny Novgorod Airport temporarily restricted for flights. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports restrictions at Nizhny Novgorod airport have been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Voronezh Oblast reports at least 7 UAVs shot down/suppressed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF MoD reports 42 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight. This is corroborated by Russian telegram channels like Дневник Десантника🇷🇺. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Операция Z (RF source) reports Trump stated that a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy is "in the process of preparation." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) reports total combat losses of RF personnel for the last 24 hours are 1190. Total since Feb 24, 2022: 277,490. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) provides the full breakdown of RF combat losses: 1190 personnel, 2 tanks, 13 armored personnel vehicles, 24 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 2 air defense systems, 1 aircraft, 1 helicopter, 10 UAVs, 1 cruise missile, 23 vehicles and fuel tankers, and 3 units of special equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ASTRA (UA source) posts photos and video of a fire suppression operation in Odesa Oblast, related to the attack on fuel and energy infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Операція Z (RF source) states that a military journalist reports an attempted terrorist attack in Izhevsk by a Central Asian native. This is an internal RF security matter, not directly related to military operations in Ukraine. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video showing an FSB operation in Izhevsk, detaining a Central Asian native suspected of preparing a terrorist attack. This is an internal RF security matter. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • Bloomberg reports Europe expects the US to continue providing intelligence and equipment to Ukraine through European partners. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Fighterbomber (RF source) posts a video of two military helicopters, likely Mi-24 or Mi-35, flying low over a rural, cultivated field. This indicates RF air reconnaissance or patrol mission. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Rybar (RF source) reports a "Forpost" UAV destroyed a Ukrainian landing craft. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • STERNENKO (UA source) launches a fundraising campaign for "TOTAL RUSORIZ" (total Russian annihilation) with a goal of 100,000,000 UAH. This indicates continued UA fundraising efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO further reports that the campaign has reached 2 million UAH. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO further reports that the campaign has reached 3 million UAH. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO (UA source) reports that the fundraising campaign has now reached 5 million UAH. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • WarGonzo (RF source) reports that the "Birds of Madyar" UAV battalion is actively operating on the Dobropillya direction on 7.2 GHz frequencies. This is an RF intelligence report of a UA unit's operational frequency. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UA source) posts photos demonstrating military training as a "guarantee of confidence in battle." This indicates continued UA training and morale building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ГУР (UA source) reports Russia is using a new UAV with LTE communication and remote control capabilities, indicating enemy technological adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts photos of morning coffee in Kyiv, a morale-boosting message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Bloomberg reports "about 10 countries are ready to send troops to Ukraine as part of security guarantees." This indicates evolving discussions on security guarantees that may include troop commitments, significantly changing the dynamics of international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Macron has again stated that one of Ukraine's security guarantees should be the presence of "deterrence forces" from European militaries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade posts a photo with the caption "The enemy doesn't see you yet. But he should already be afraid." This is a morale-boosting message, likely part of a public relations campaign. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • The White House reportedly seeks to hold a Zelenskyy-Putin summit in Budapest, according to Politico. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Операция Z (RF source) confirms that Budapest is being considered as a summit location for Putin, Trump, and Zelenskyy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Russian sources (Операция Z) are leveraging a quote from Scott Bessent, former U.S. Treasury Secretary, discussing a "10% markup" on US arms sales to Europe and Ukraine. This is an RF information operation aimed at discrediting Western aid and portraying it as financially opportunistic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) acknowledges and provides context to the RF information operation regarding Scott Bessent's statements on arms sales markup. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Colonelcassad video shows a man speaking about self-organization and acting like "partisan cells," emphasizing independent action. This could be interpreted as a call for decentralized resistance or support for RF operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RBC-Ukraine reports that the National Guard of Ukraine's "Rubizh" brigade is collecting funds for the restoration of destroyed property and equipment. This indicates direct resource needs for UA units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • РБК-Україна (UA source) reports that RF launched 93 drones and attacked with two Iskander-M ballistic missiles across Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports that one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 62 UAVs were shot down overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ASTRA (UA source) reports that RF attacked Ukraine overnight with 93 drones and 2 Iskander-M missiles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) confirms one ballistic missile and 62 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ТАСС reports that the Investigative Committee has completed the investigation into former Deputy Minister of Defense of RF, Pavel Popov. This indicates internal RF legal proceedings potentially related to corruption or mismanagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ТАСС reports that the US National Intelligence has stripped 37 former and current US intelligence officers of access to secret data. This is an internal US security matter. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts a photo message that appears to be a fundraising appeal, featuring sports memorabilia. This indicates continued UA fundraising efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Два майора (RF source) reports on a Russian citizen attempting to illegally cross the administrative border into Crimea via a checkpoint. This highlights RF's ongoing border security efforts for annexed territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Rybar (RF source) posts a photo message titled "Drone-spotters," depicting an RF military operative preparing a drone for flight, emphasizing the role of UAVs in directing aviation and artillery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kotsnews (RF source) discusses "Indian US policy and Macron's mood," implying diplomatic discussions. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts a lengthy political commentary on Zelenskyy's supposed focus on PR over military victories, implying that Ukraine is preparing to concede territory due to Western influence. This is a RF information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Новости Москвы (RF source) reports that Hong Kong and swine flu will be present in Russia this year. This is a public health warning for RF domestic population. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • ТАСС reports on Trump's directive to paint the Mexico border wall black, an internal US political matter. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • Воин DV (RF source) provides "fresh news" on peace negotiations, implying ongoing diplomatic processes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Север.Реалии (UA source) reports that the "Higher School of Economics" will study how Russian students relate to "traditional values." This is an internal RF social study. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) discusses the first results of requirements for Russian language knowledge and legal residency for foreigners, implying internal migration/mobilization efforts within RF. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) states that European defense assets are falling amidst reports of a ceasefire in Ukraine, citing The Financial Times. This indicates a perceived economic impact of peace talks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Военкор Котенок (RF source) reports that 42 enemy aircraft-type drones were destroyed by RF air defense overnight, corroborating previous reports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: ТАСС (RF source) reports on a new Russian bill for free two-time meals for schoolchildren, indicating a domestic social policy focus not directly related to military operations. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: ТАСС (RF source) reports on discussions within the RF government regarding requiring telecom operators and internet providers to notify law enforcement of digital crimes. This indicates internal RF legal and security developments. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Politico (RF source) reports that Macron and Starmer are unlikely to send troops to Ukraine due to their own political weakness. This is an RF information operation aimed at influencing public perception of Western support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Операция Z (RF source) reports a German SDPG deputy statement claiming Germany cannot send troops to Ukraine due to troop shortages. This is an RF information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Europe believes Trump's peace talks will fail but supports them to reveal the Kremlin's true intentions. This reflects a nuanced international stance on ongoing diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: STERNENKO reports a fundraising campaign has reached 12 million UAH, indicating continued public support for UA military efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Germany: RBK-Ukraine reports that four Bundeswehr vehicles were burned by unknown individuals in Germany. This is a domestic security incident and not directly related to military operations in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS photo message reports that the SDPG (German Social Democratic Party) is ready to discuss sending Bundeswehr troops to Ukraine only in conjunction with American soldiers. This indicates a conditional commitment that links German deployment to US involvement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: РБК-Україна reports that the British Chief of Staff stated the UK is ready to send troops to Ukraine to protect its sky and ports. This indicates evolving and potentially escalating international commitments from key allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Bryansk Oblast, RF: AV БогомаZ reports that seven enemy UAVs of aircraft type were destroyed over Bryansk Oblast by RF Air Defense. Colonelcassad (RF source) video shows an Iskander strike, linked with ZALA UAV reconnaissance, destroying a UA long-range UAV launch site. This implies a combined RF ISR-strike capability targeting high-value UA drone assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Colonelcassad reports a RAM-2X UAV was shot down by Russian forces in Belgorod Oblast. This confirms continued UA drone activity into RF territory, specifically targeting Belgorod. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts a photo message with the caption "F-16 struck Tetkino?", implying a potential UA F-16 strike on Russian territory. This is currently unconfirmed and likely an RF information operation. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: TASS reports FSB detained Ukrainian saboteurs in Bryansk Oblast, claiming they were trained by Western special services. This is a RF information operation intended to justify RF security actions and externalize blame. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Crimea: RBC-Ukraine reports that Russians have intensified mass "filtration measures" in Crimea. This indicates increased RF internal security operations in occupied territories, likely aimed at suppressing dissent or identifying individuals with ties to Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a photo message with the caption "Crimea is close in size to Texas, Trump said. He also turns out to be a good geographer." This is an RF information operation framing geopolitical statements. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
• Kryvyi Rih: Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of the morning of 20 AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Vinnitsa Oblast: The Office of the Prosecutor General (UA source) reports that the head of the State Emergency Service in Vinnytsia Oblast is suspected of forced labor using subordinate rescuers for his private construction projects, and a human trafficking scheme has been exposed. This indicates an internal UA corruption issue. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• International: Israel's Defense Minister approved a plan to capture Gaza, named "Gideon's Chariots - 2." This is a new development in a separate conflict, but could potentially divert international attention or resources. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ASTRA (UA source) reports that the Israeli Minister of Defense has approved a plan for the IDF to establish control over Gaza, citing The Jerusalem Post. This confirms the ongoing shift in the international security environment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: WarGonzo (RF source) posts a photo message marking the three-year anniversary of Darya Dugina's death. This is an RF information operation used to reinforce anti-Ukrainian sentiment. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a video message discussing Azerbaijan and Albania, implying Trump's role in resolving historical conflicts. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Полиция Хабаровского края (RF source) posts a photo message about fraudsters deceiving people into becoming "droppers" (money mules). This is a domestic RF law enforcement alert. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: ТАСС (RF source) reports the Ministry of Education has created a list of modern patriotic works for home reading. This is an internal RF social/educational policy. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ photo message reports a working visit to Ukraine by a delegation from the Swedish Armed Forces, led by Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Karl-Johan Edström. This indicates continued bilateral military cooperation and support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Current Conditions: No new significant weather events. Previous reports of challenging terrain (mud-covered vehicles), localized forest fires, and strong winds affecting drone operations persist. RF video shows ATVs operating in heavy mud, confirming difficult off-road conditions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Impact from Attacks: Large industrial fires from UA deep strikes (Syzran Oil Refinery, Ryazan gunpowder workshop, Azot chemical plant, Nikolske oil pumping station) and RF strikes (Kremenchuk Oil Refinery, SOCAR oil depot in Odesa, Triton oil depot in Izmail, gas transportation system in Poltava Oblast) are generating significant smoke and potential environmental contamination, impacting local air quality and visibility. This also includes localized damage and power outages in Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, and occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblasts due to RF drone and missile attacks on civilian and energy infrastructure. The finding of unexploded cluster munitions in Kremenchuk poses an ongoing environmental and safety hazard. The burning of the Kremenchuk oil refinery from RF "Geranium" (Shahed) strikes is explicitly highlighted as ongoing. ASTRA and TASS report total power outage in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to UA UAV strikes, according to RF official Balitsky. Mash na Donbasse reports electricity outage in Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to UA UAV strike on a high-voltage line. Powerful fire in Izmail (Odesa Oblast) after "Geran" (Shahed) activity, confirmed to be a strike on fuel arteries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Humanitarian Impact: Confirmed fatalities and injured personnel (7 fatalities, 23 injured in Kharkiv; 3 fatalities, 34 injured in Zaporizhzhia; 12 injured in Sumy Oblast, 1 injured in Odesa Oblast; 1 injured in Kherson Oblast) from RF strikes on civilian residential areas underscore severe humanitarian and environmental impacts. RF missile strike on a Jewish cemetery in Pervomaisk, Mykolaiv Oblast, highlights disregard for civilian and cultural sites. Water shortages in Donetsk further highlight civilian suffering due to infrastructure damage, with a video from Makeevka depicting civilians queuing for water. New civilian fatality reported in Nikopol due to RF shelling, one woman killed. Multiple ballistic missile launches towards Odesa, indicating continued RF targeting of population centers. TASS reports Ukraine evacuated over 52,000 people from Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Other Factors: RF reports of heat aiding RF forces in evading UA thermal imagers on the Zaporizhzhia front, suggesting localized environmental exploitation. Solar flares expected to intensify magnetic storms, potentially affecting satellite communications, GPS, and radio signals (C2/ISR). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Current Air Alerts: RF is attacking Ukraine with Shahed drones (Air Raid Map shows red highlights across Ukraine). KABs launched towards Donetsk Oblast. Reconnaissance UAVs reported in central Sumy Oblast, eastern Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, northern Donetsk Oblast, and Chernihiv Oblast (heading towards Nizhyn), with an enemy strike UAV from Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, and another UAV from Chernihiv Oblast moving into Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast. Aviation weapon threat declared for Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. A UAV is reported heading towards Pavlohrad. Multiple groups of UAVs reported from Dnipropetropavsk Oblast towards Donetsk Oblast. KAB launches by RF tactical aviation reported on Sumy Oblast. Ballistic missile threats to Odesa are immediate and require rapid air defense responses. Renewed explosions in Zaporizhzhia, coupled with reports of total power outage in occupied parts of the oblast, require immediate damage assessment and response. Izmail (Odesa Oblast) and Dunaisske are under attack from Shahed drones, which are now reportedly "minus." Air danger regime has been introduced in Lipetsk Oblast (yellow alert) and Yelets/surrounding areas (red alert for UAV attack threat). Air traffic restrictions implemented in Samara, Saratov, and Volgograd airports due to UAV threats. New air traffic restrictions in Tambov and Nizhny Novgorod airports due to UAV threats. RF tactical aviation activity observed in northeastern and southeastern directions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Rospotrebnadzor names main epidemiological threats in Russia, which could indicate a potential public health concern impacting RF personnel strength or logistical focus. (LOW CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske Axis): RF (elements of 98th VDV Division) maintain a foothold in eastern Kanal microdistrict, conducting battalion-sized mechanized assaults. UA units executed tactical withdrawal to prepared defensive positions. UA 93rd Brigade conducting clearance operations in Hruzke and Vesele (Dobropillya area) with tank and robotic support. UA Azov Brigade actively repelling RF attacks in Katerynivka. RF 85th OMCBR in Soledar direction. RF 36th OA forces (37th OMCBR, 336th Marine Brigade) pressing towards Maliyivka, Shevchenko, and Yanvarske. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF claims destruction of a UA M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzer near Myrnohrad by FPV drones from "Rubicon" Center. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Colonelcassad (RF source) video claims to show the destruction of a temporary deployment point (PVD) of the 14th NGU Separate Brigade with a FAB-3000 with UMPK near Dymytrov/Myrnohrad, and a UAV control point of the 34th UA Separate Brigade with a LMUR (Light Multipurpose Guided Missile) near Antonivka, Kherson Oblast. This indicates RF continues large-scale aerial bombing and precision strikes on high-value targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports RF forces issued a tactical update stating they "pushed the AFU out of the eastern part of Serebryanka, DPR, with about 60% of the settlement now under Russian control." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: TASS reports Russian forces have started battles on the southern approaches to Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: TASS video reports that Southern Grouping fighters destroyed two UAV control points and a dug-out of the AFU in DPR. One of the destroyed UAV C2 points is stated to be a communications antenna, indicating a broader target set. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: MoD Russia video indicates RF forces with howitzers and Orlan-10 UAVs destroyed ammunition depots and manpower of AFU units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovskoe Direction): RF claims "big breakthrough" and liberation of Iskra, with advances up to 1.5km towards Sokil from Ocheretyne. UA forces (1st Azov Corps) cleared Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz, directly countering RF claims. UA Commander Syrskyi reports successful UA advances in Dobropillya and Pokrovsk directions. TASS reports RF 'Vostok' grouping advanced into Ivankiv, Poltavka, and Zeleny Gay. Ukrainian National Guard relocating units from Kharkiv to Pokrovsk direction. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBR) successfully destroying a camouflaged RF tank using an FPV drone (Vidarr), after aerial reconnaissance identified the target. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) reports "intense fighting" in the Pokrovsk direction, with RF forces having entered Rodynske from Pivnichne. This indicates continued RF offensive pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • WarGonzo (RF Source) provides a tactical map for the Donetsk front as of 19 AUG 25, indicating continuing RF offensive pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Сливочный каприз (RF source) provides a new RF claimed tactical map for the Pokrovsk direction, dated 19 AUG 25, captioned "Krasnoarmeysk - Mayak." This continues to highlight RF focus and claimed advances in this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UA reports capture of an RF prisoner from 150th Division by Azov units, and significant RF losses in Azov's areas. Mandatory evacuation of families with children in Druzhkivka suggests anticipated RF advances or increased threat. Closure of Ukrposhta branches in Konstantinovka from August 19 further indicates increasing threat to this logistics hub. Clashes reported near Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, Oleksandra-Kalynove, and Pleschiyivka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Pleschiyivka, Stepanivka, Yablunivka and Rusyn Yar in the Toretsk direction. STERNENKO (UA source) reports that Phoenix UAS tactical group is "cutting Russian logistics" in the Konstantinovka direction. Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) claims RF 4th OMCBR continues to attack towards Delievka – Aleksandro-Shulgino and attempts to break through and consolidate in Belaya Hora. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Toretsk, Scherbynivka and towards Oleksandro-Shultyne, Pleschiyivka, Rusyn Yar in thetsk direction, as well as Poltavka and Berestok. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts a tactical map for the Konstantinovka direction, indicating continued RF focus on this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports that Kyiv is preparing a series of strikes on Kramatorsk, blaming Russia. This is a RF information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled three enemy attacks near Druzhba, Chasiv Yar, and Bila Hora in the Kramatorsk direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled four enemy attacks near Pivnichne, Pivdenne, and Niu York in the Toretsk direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video shows a tank engaging a building, likely occupied by RF forces, indicating continued UA efforts to clear entrenched enemy positions. The commentary specifies RF refusal to surrender from a basement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Luhansk Oblast (Siversk Direction): RF forces report combat operations with drone-guided artillery and ATGM teams. RF MoD claims destruction of AFU stronghold in Krasny Liman direction. RF aims to advance 2 km to close a "fire bag" for AFU in Kremensky forests. Russian forces reportedly broke through Ukrainian defense lines in the Lyman district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Serebryanka, Siversk, Vyyimka, Fedorivka, Pereyizne and towards Siversk in the Siversk direction. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Kolodezi in Donetsk People's Republic (Luhansk direction). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 63rd Brigade utilizing three FPV drones to neutralize a Russian tank threatening Ukrainian positions east of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast. RF MoD confirms liberation of Kolodezi and Voronoye. Colonelcassad reports on mobile fire groups operating in Belgorod Oblast and Luhansk People's Republic. TASS reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including foreign mercenaries, suffered 4,500 personnel losses in the past week on the Luhansk People's Republic borders, with the Southern Group of Forces inflicting the most damage. TASS claims that Kyiv has struck Lisichansk, LPR, more than 10 times in the past week, resulting in civilian casualties. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Luhansk direction as of 18 AUG 25. Сливочный каприз (RF source) posts a summary of combat operations between August 14-17, 2025, which likely includes the Luhansk direction. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Fedorivka and Vyyimka in the Siversk direction, as well as Serebrianka and Vyimka. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) has provided a photo message of a tactical map for the Siversk direction. Mash na Donbasse reports over 1000 residents of Kamyshnoye and Gerasimovka without power due to a severe fire in LPR. Сливочный каприз (RF source) photo messages with caption "19.08.25 Siversk - Vyyemka" provides RF claimed tactical map of the Siversk direction. Сливочный каприз (RF source) video demonstrates active combat operations in the Siversk direction, including drone strikes on enemy positions and personnel, confirming ongoing high-intensity engagements. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video shows 63rd Mechanized Brigade destroying RF assault groups in the Lyman direction. Colonelcassad (RF source) has posted a tactical map for the Seversk direction as of 19 AUG 25, captioned "Series of successes," which highlights RF claimed gains. New intel indicates RF video footage of military vehicle (likely truck or personnel carrier) moving through wooded area. Target is tracked and "TARGET CAPTURED" (ЦЕЛЬ ЗАХВАЧЕНА) displayed in Russian. Rybar (RF source) has posted a tactical map depicting military activity in the Severky Donets direction, dated August 19, 2025, at 19:00, showing color-coded territorial control and combat areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled five enemy attacks near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Vyimka, and Rozdolivka in the Lyman direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled nine enemy attacks near Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Vyimka, and Rozdolivka in the Siversk direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) reports "intense combat" and "breakthrough attempts" in the Lyman direction, with RF forces actively regrouping and bringing additional forces, likely from the 8th Combined Arms Army. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports that RF forces "pushed the AFU out of the eastern part of Serebryanka, DPR, with about 60% of the settlement now under Russian control." This refers to Serebryanka in Luhansk Oblast (often referred to as DNR in RF sources). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • WarGonzo (RF Source) provides a tactical map for the Krasnolimanskoye (Lyman) Direction as of 19 AUG 25, indicating continuing RF offensive pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Сливочный каприз (RF source) provides a tactical map for "Krasny Liman - Kirovsk (Zarechnoye)" dated 20 AUG 25. This indicates continued RF focus and claimed activity in this specific area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: РБК-Україна reports that Ukrainian military personnel are explaining that the enemy is undertaking "dozens of attacks in one go" in the Lyman direction. This confirms the high intensity of RF pressure on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): Sustained RF artillery and FPV drone attacks on Nikopol and surrounding communities. RF claims control of all settlements at the junction of DNR and Dnipropetropavsk Oblast after liberation of Iskra. Extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Nikopol confirmed. Ballistic missile strike on outskirts of Dnipro confirmed with damage to civilian property. Overnight drone attack on Pokrovska community, Synelnykivskyi district, caused fires at agricultural enterprises. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Voronoye in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetropavsk Regional State Administration) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopolshchyna. A ballistic missile threat on Synelnykove and a high-speed target from the east on Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Explosions were heard in Pavlohrad. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports destruction of a UA T-72 tank by an FPV drone in Ivanivka, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected near Pavlohrad, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a drone (UAV) threat to Pavlohrad. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "powerful explosions" in Pavlohrad. TASS (RF source) claims UA forces in Iskra, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, killed an elderly female civilian. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropropetropavsk Regional State Administration) reports that RF struck Pavlohrad with a missile overnight, causing a fire. Воин DV (RF source) video footage from an aerial platform with thermal imaging, focused on a wooded area on the border of Dnipropetropavsk Oblast and DNR, targeting what appears to be personnel or equipment. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces struck Pavlohrad Repair and Mechanical Plant and Technical Equipment Plant. MoD Russia (RF source) video of servicemen from the Vostok Group of Forces describing the liberation of Iskra in Donetsk People's Republic. Mash на Донbasse (RF source) posts a UA UAV attacked a gas station in Yenakiieve, DNR. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports that UA forces inflicted a successful strike on a gas station in Yenakiieve. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports a substation hit by a "Geran" drone in Mezhove, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video of a burning power substation in Mezhove, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetropavsk Regional State Administration) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol, Marhanets, and Pokrovske communities throughout the day. Photos show damaged civilian buildings. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetropavsk and Donetsk Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of strike UAVs in eastern Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, heading towards Pavlohrad. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 1 "moped" (Shahed) heading towards Dnipro. UA Air Defense reports 7 enemy UAVs shot down over Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. ASTRA (UA source) reports one person injured after Russian attacks in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports the "SKALA" Regiment conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropropetropavsk and Donetsk Oblasts, confirming UA tactical gains. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) video claims destruction of a French "Caesar" self-propelled howitzer and an ammunition vehicle in the Dnipropetropavsk border region by "Vostok" Group of Forces, signaling continued RF focus on Western-supplied artillery. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video depicts a large building complex engulfed in flames and thick black smoke after overnight Shahed attacks in the Synelnykive district. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a photo message showing a tactical map for the Dnipropetrovsk direction. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in eastern Dnipropetropavsk. Colonelcassad (RF source) video shows a Lancet strike on a French CAESAR SPG in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, confirming the targeting and destruction of high-value Western-supplied artillery. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports aviation weapon threat for Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports an explosion in Pavlohrad. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetropavsk Regional State Administration) reports drone attacks on Pavlohrad overnight, causing fire and damage to a transport enterprise, with no casualties. This confirms continued RF targeting of transport infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts photos showing damaged residential buildings in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming the impact of RF shelling on civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports aviation weapon threat for Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video claims to show FPV drone operators from the "Vostok" Group of Forces actively targeting enemy personnel in the Khoroshe (Dnipropetropavsk Oblast) area, indicating RF offensive actions and counter-rotation efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkivskyi District): UA Air Force alerts for high-speed targets and KAB launches. RF claims improved position near Krasny Perviy, controlling ~6 km of road to Dvorechnaya. A substantial increase (estimated 40%) in Russian EW emissions has been detected in the Kharkiv sector, primarily targeting Ukrainian reconnaissance UAVs and degrading ISR capabilities. Continued RF reconnaissance UAVs in northern and eastern Kharkiv Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Khatnye and Fyholivka in the South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction, and also Hlyboke, Kamyanka, Ambarne. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 4 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes in the past day. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. РБК-Україна reports 11 casualties in Kharkiv from recent RF attack. Олег Синєгубов, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, reports 3 additional casualties, bringing total to 11. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates the 11 casualties. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration (UA source), provided multiple photo messages showing damaged civilian residential buildings. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "continuing to pound Kharkiv" with "powerful explosions." РБК-Україна reports an explosion heard in Kharkiv. Mayor Igor Terekhov confirms "Shahed" hits in Industrialnyi district. Oleg Syniehubov confirms two casualties (25-year-old male, 79-year-old female) from drone strike. Subsequent reports from Oleg Syniehubov indicate 10-year-old boy, 19-year-old girl, 46-year-old male, and 47-year-old female hospitalized. Mayor Igor Terekhov reports one fatality and five injured. Kharkiv now reports four fatalities (up from three), including a one-year-old child and a 55-year-old woman, and 17 injured (including 6 children). Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) reports 5 people are currently missing. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and РБК-УкраїНА (UA source) have released additional video footage showing the ongoing search and rescue operation. ASTRA (UA source) has released photos and a drone video showing the extensive destruction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports on the drone attack on a residential high-rise. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА reports a 16-year-old boy became the fourth victim. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports five fatalities. STERNENKO (UA source) corroborates five fatalities. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates five fatalities. Север.Реалії (UA source) reports at least four fatalities. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) reports enemy strikes on Kharkiv and 10 settlements. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports five fatalities and at least 30 injured. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) reports the number of injured has increased to 20. ASTRA (UA source) also reports 30 injured. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts video and photo messages of the aftermath. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) declares August 18 a day of mourning. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports the number of injured has increased to 20. ASTRA (UA source) reports the number of fatalities has increased to 6. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) confirms 6 fatalities. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts an informational message. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the number of fatalities has risen to 7. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates 7 fatalities. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) also confirms 7 fatalities. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts video of border guards liquidating 5 enemy targets. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and Рыбарь (RF source) both post video of a military convoy with RF and US flags. ASTRA (UA source) posts video of a Russian attack on Kharkiv from the city's mayor. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video of Kharkiv mayor showing morning Shahed strikes. РБК-УкраїНА (UA source) posts video of Kharkiv mayor showing the moment of a Russian strike. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts video of Kharkiv, claiming "Tests continue. Be good!". ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing the moment of an RF strike on a residential building. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video showing medics attempting to resuscitate a small child. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, reports an additional three people sought medical attention, bringing total to 23. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts multiple photo messages indicating effective UA drone reconnaissance by the 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade. Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) has provided a photo message warning of fire danger. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on northern Kharkiv Oblast. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 24 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes last week. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video footage of a series of impacts in Kharkiv. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports that "Khartia" drones successfully located and struck an RF camp in Kharkiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts three photo messages depicting a battle map of the Kharkiv direction. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) posts a photo message celebrating Ukrainian leadership. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video showing civilian structures being transported by trucks at night. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a video of a formal gathering of international dignitaries, including Zelenskyy and Trump. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows drone operators of the 3rd Assault Brigade dropping munitions on RF in Kharkiv Oblast. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast is under bomb strike and threat of strike UAVs. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports RF KAB strikes on Ruska Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows 3rd Assault Brigade drone operators striking RF positions in Kharkiv Oblast while peace talks are ongoing. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast under bomb strike and UAV threat. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. A high-speed target is moving through Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast, likely a cruise missile. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Another high-speed target reported in Kharkiv Oblast, same course. UA sources report 4 missiles from Kharkiv Oblast now over Poltava Oblast, heading towards Kremenchuk. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 16 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast sustained enemy strikes yesterday. TASS reports RF forces struck two UA locations in Khatnye and Chuhunivka, Kharkiv Oblast. Олексій Білошицький (UA source) video confirms ongoing rescue operations and significant damage in Kharkiv following drone strikes, highlighting continued RF attacks on civilian infrastructure. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a photo of a multi-story residential building in Kharkiv, extensively damaged, implying a successful RF strike. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports a Russian serviceman will be tried in Kharkiv Oblast for shooting Ukrainian soldiers at the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the new commander of the 13th NGU Brigade "Khartia" is Major Daniel "Cuba" Kitone. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) posts photos of humanitarian aid being delivered to military personnel on the Kharkiv direction. Colonelcassad (RF source) video shows an FPV drone strike by RF "Sever" Group on a building with AFU militants in Tsapovka, Kharkiv Oblast. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 video shows 9 direct hits by "STRIX" unit on the South-Slobozhanskyi direction, with drone footage of targeted enemy positions, a communication tower, and a vehicle, confirming ongoing successful UA strikes. STERNENKO (UA source) reports an FPV drone strike by RF forces on an emergency medical vehicle in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, indicating a continued disregard for protected civilian assets. ASTRA (UA source) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) both confirm a Russian drone strike on an ambulance in Kupyansk, injuring two people. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts multiple photo messages of military training (obstacle course) for psychological and physical preparation. A group of UAVs from Kharkiv Oblast is now heading towards Poltava Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports RF forces have started battles for taking Hlushchenkovo, Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled five enemy attacks near Vovchansk and Kamianka in the South Slobozhansky direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • WarGonzo (RF Source) provides a tactical map for the Kharkov direction as of 19 AUG 25, indicating continuing RF offensive pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat to Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Chernihiv Oblast: UA Air Force alerts for enemy reconnaissance UAVs, high-speed targets, and threat of strike UAVs. "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on a forward Ukrainian command post in Birino area confirmed. Ballistic missile impact in Honcharivske reported. RF claims destruction of a foreign mercenary legion's base. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Krasnyy Khutir of Chernihiv region, and Polushkyne, Karabany. Colonelcassad reports Kinzhal strike near Desna and Geran/Gerbera strikes near Semenivka (Chernihiv Oblast). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV threat to Brovary and Boryspil districts in Kyiv Oblast and a UAV threat to Kyiv. Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy UAVs on northern Chernihiv Oblast and in the Pryluky area. НгП раZVедка (RF source) claims "Geran" drones are "drilling" Chernihiv Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports enemy UAVs attacked Kyiv Oblast overnight, damaging a hangar in Boryspil district. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Chernihiv Oblast. MoD Russia (RF source) video claiming Geran-2 UAVs hit AFU special forces units of GUR near Zhadovo, Chernihiv region, and also an AFU forward command post near Birino. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UA source) reports UAVs in central Chernihiv Oblast near Pryluky. Операция Z (RF source) posts video claiming Geran strikes hit GUR special forces in Chernihiv. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy strike UAV on northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. UA Air Force reports a UAV threat in Chernihiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces struck a training center in Chernihiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for Chernihiv Oblast has been lifted. Latest UA Air Force reports an enemy UAV on Chernihiv Oblast. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports that RF drones attacked Chernihiv Oblast this morning, causing power outages in some settlements, confirming continued RF drone activity in the area and immediate civilian impact. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) corroborates that parts of Chernihiv Oblast are without electricity after the morning UAV attack, further confirming the immediate civilian impact. New Intel: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a reconnaissance UAV in Chernihiv Oblast near Berezna. Interception measures are engaged. The Air Force stresses that this UAV can be a spotter for enemy fire assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Unidentified UAV activity reported in northern Chernihiv Oblast. UAV heading towards Novgorod-Siverskyi, Borzna (Chernihiv Oblast). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts, with interception measures engaged. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • A UAV from Sumy Oblast is heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kherson Oblast (Left Bank Dnieper): UA reports destruction of an RF ammunition depot and four vehicles on the left bank. RF claims Lancet strike destroyed US M-777 howitzer and Ukrainian Bogdana SPG on right bank. Ukrainian Navy radio intercepts confirm loss of Russian Su-30SM fighter jet southeast of Snake Island. UA forces repelled 4-6 Russian army assaults. UA source claims reconnaissance units entered "Novaya Kakhovka" on the Kherson direction and are shelling enemy defenses. Southern Ukraine Defense Forces report continued strikes on enemy deployment areas, fire positions, and rear areas in the southern operational zone. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports strikes on Khadzhibeevka and Usatove (Odesa region), specifically targeting "marine BECs" and a 330kv power substation. TASS (RF source) claims that the "Kyiv-appointed" administration of Kherson has long since left the city and is operating remotely from Mykolaiv. TASS reports that the AFU lost a Starlink satellite communication station and 17 UAV control points in the zone of responsibility of the 'Vostok' grouping in the past 24 hours. Два майора (RF source) posts thermal imaging footage claiming to show activity in Kherson at night. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) provides operational information for the Southern Defense Forces. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Kherson direction as of 18 AUG 25. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction, and also clashes near Antonivsky bridge, Dniprovske, and near Bilohrudyy island. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of explosions and vehicle activity in the Kherson direction. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows artillerymen of the 49th Army hitting fortifications on the right bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson region. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) photo message provides operational information for the Southern Defense Forces as of 08:00 19 AUG 25, indicating continued UA monitoring and defense in the southern operational zone. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) photo message with caption "⚡️⚡️Сили оборони Півдня України продовжують уражати місця дислокації ворога, його вогневі позиції та тили." confirms ongoing UA deep strikes and counter-battery fire in the Southern operational zone. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) video shows a fire at a forestry enterprise near Chulakivka in Kherson Oblast, with plumes of smoke, confirming environmental impact from burning vegetation, likely related to conflict activity. Kotsnews (RF source) video depicts RF military medics operating in the Kherson direction, showcasing newly supplied evacuation equipment. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (UA source) video shows FPV operators of the "B.G" unit (Crimean SBU directorate) striking RF personnel on Kinburn Spit, confirming UA special operations and drone effectiveness in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Colonelcassad (RF source) video claims destruction of a UAV control point of the 34th UA Separate Brigade with a LMUR (Light Multipurpose Guided Missile) near Antonivka, Kherson Oblast. This indicates RF precision targeting of UA C2 elements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Rybar (RF source) video analysis shows ongoing battles near Aleshki and strikes on Kherson, depicting UA attempts to establish bridgeheads and RF counter-battery/air strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled three enemy attacks near Pishchanivka, Podstepne, and Krynky in the Kherson direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ASTRA reports one woman was injured in a Russian attack in Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Воин DV (RF source) video shows RF drone operators from the 5th Army, Vostok Group of Forces, destroying enemy personnel and equipment in the Vremevskoye direction (Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia border region), not Kherson. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) provides an updated operational summary for the Southern Defense Forces, indicating continued UA efforts to target enemy locations, fire positions, and rear areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Mykolaiv Oblast: РБК-Україна (UA source) reports an RF missile hit an ancient Jewish cemetery in Pervomaisk, Mykolaiv Oblast. This indicates continued RF targeting of civilian and cultural sites. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) also reports on the situation in Mykolaiv. RF activity has increased significantly in Mykolaiv Oblast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missile danger in Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts. Николаевский Ванёк reports ballistic missile (later corrected to Smerch MLRS) targeting Bilozerka, Mykolaiv Oblast. UA Air Force reports a high-speed target in Mykolaiv Oblast. Another Smerch MLRS strike reported on Bilozerka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Odesa Oblast: STERNENKO reports groups of strike UAVs in the north and near Odesa Oblast. РБК-Україна reports an alert from Odesa Oblast Military Administration calling residents to shelters due to strike UAVs. STERNENKO reports Odesa is under a massive "Shahed" drone attack, with explosions heard. Николаевский Ванёк reports reduction in drone numbers near Odesa. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports continued drone threats in Velyka Balka-Nerubaiske and Radisne-Velykyi Dalnyk (Odesa Oblast). ASTRA reports a large fire in Odesa after a massive Shahed strike. Операция Z (RF source) posts multiple photo and video messages reporting "powerful strikes on enemy objects in Odesa, fires in the city." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports that RF drones struck a Nova Poshta terminal in Odesa. Дневник Десантника (RF source) claims that their strike UAVs hit "several objects" in Odesa overnight. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна (UA source) confirm an RF drone strike on a fuel and energy infrastructure object and a two-story building in the suburbs of Odesa. ASTRA reports a fire on a fuel and energy infrastructure object in Odesa Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) reports Odesa was attacked by Shaheds all night. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video of the aftermath of strikes on an alleged SOCAR oil depot in Odesa Oblast. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims Geran drones destroyed a "giant fuel terminal" of SOCAR. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) reports 24 Shahed UAVs destroyed by Southern Defense Forces. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a map/graphic titled "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine August 17 - August 18, 2025," which likely includes Odesa. Colonelcassad also posts video of an explosion with "kurs_odessa" watermark. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video claiming a massive Shahed attack on SOCAR oil depot in Odesa Oblast. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims "Azerbaijani fuel tanks extinguished." Colonelcassad (RF source) comments that overnight strikes in Odesa targeted Nova Poshta objects and SOCAR. Два майора (RF source) posts video of significant damage to industrial or storage tanks in Odesa. Colonelcassad (RF source) also posts video showing the aftermath of attacks on SOCAR in Odesa. Операция Z (RF source) provides photos of a large fire, likely in Odesa. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows a significant fire at the SOCAR oil depot. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts photos showing a large fire at the SOCAR oil depot in Odesa. Kotsnews (RF source) posts videos confirming significant damage and fires. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) also posts video of the aftermath of the SOCAR oil depot strike. Два майора (RF source) has posted a photo message regarding Romania's desire to expand joint Black Sea patrolling with Bulgaria and Turkey. Colonelcassad (RF source) provides a summary of strikes. WarGonzo (RF source) posted videos showing the aftermath of the SOCAR strike in Odesa. STERNENKO video shows aerial footage likely from a drone, observing an area with what appear to be defensive positions or fortifications. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha reacting to the RF strike on the SOCAR oil depot. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile arrival in Dobroslav. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target on Odesa Oblast, heading northwest. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video shows multiple plumes of black smoke rising from various urban locations, likely Odesa, implying significant fires/explosions. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports the SBU uncovered an RF military intelligence agent group that coordinated shelling of Kyiv and carried out sabotage in Odesa Oblast. This indicates continued RF attempts at covert action in the region. An enemy reconnaissance UAV has been detected in the Black Sea waters near Odesa Oblast, with interception measures engaged. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF destroyed a UA radio point in Odesa Oblast using an Iskander missile. New intelligence indicates multiple ballistic missile launches towards Odesa Oblast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirms missile threat to Odesa. Explosions have been heard in Odesa. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports several groups of UAVs from Black Sea waters heading to Odesa Oblast. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports a "powerful Iskander strike" in Odesa destroyed a German IRIS-T SLM air defense system position. Николаевский Ванёк reports 17 "mopeds" (Shahed) from the sea heading towards/through Tatarbunary. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports ballistic missile arrival against a UA air defense position in Odesa. Николаевский Ванёк reports 20 "mopeds" from Tatarbunary heading to Izmailsky district, and that the first 6 "mopeds" are approaching Izmail. Powerful fire in Izmail (Odesa Oblast) after "Geran" (Shahed) activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • "Night Storm over the Danube: Strike on AFU fuel arteries in Izmail" reported by RF source. This confirms the target of the previous Shahed activity in Izmail and its impact on UA logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports overnight enemy attacks on Izmail, Odesa Oblast, and Okhtyrka, Sumy Oblast, with fires successfully contained and no casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (РБК-Україна source) reports destroying 5 Shaheds overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • WarGonzo (RF source) video shows Russian drones destroying an oil depot near Izmail, confirming the successful strike on a fuel storage facility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports a mass UAV attack on fuel and energy infrastructure in Odesa Oblast, causing one injury. This confirms RF targeting of critical infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ASTRA (UA source) reports one person injured as a result of the attack on Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ASTRA (UA source) provides photos of infrastructure damage in Izmail after the Russian attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Военкор Котенок (RF source) confirms destruction of Triton oil depot in Izmail and damage to Excellion tanker by 30-40 drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Alex Parker Returns photo message claims 30 "Geranium" drones struck the Triton oil depot in Odesa Oblast, destroying reservoirs of Azerbaijani oil, linking it to a shift in political directives. This is likely an RF information operation with potential for operational impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Colonelcassad video shows additional footage of the burning oil depot in Izmail, corroborating the extensive damage to critical fuel infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RF claims destruction of AFU ammunition depot. 578 RF strikes on 14 settlements over past day. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and also near Novoandriyivka in Orikhiv direction, and Prymorske, Novoandriyivka. A 64-year-old man was wounded in a hostile attack on Polohivskyi district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Tolstoy, Komyshuvakha, Zelene Pole, Maliyivka, Myrne, Zaporizhzhke, Olhivske in the Novopavlivka direction, and also near Kamyanske and Novoandriyivka in the Orikhiv direction, as well as Zirka, Vilne Pole, Voskresenka, Shevchenko, Novodarivka, Olhivske, Novopil, Zelene Pole, Maliyivka, Shevchenko and towards Oleksandrohrad and Komyshuvakha. Colonelcassad reports VKC and missile forces conducted strikes on targets in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Total power outage in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to UA UAV strikes on high-voltage lines. TASS reports power outage did not affect ZNPP operation. Colonelcassad reports RF's 57th Motor Rifle Brigade "Vostok" destroying UA material and technical means, including Starlink terminals. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA Air Defense is working in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts, with interception measures engaged. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF forces launched 583 strikes on 11 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports electricity supply in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been restored, confirming previous outages due to UA UAV strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ASTRA (UA source) also reports electricity supply restored across occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled 10 enemy attacks near Novodarivka, Olhivske, Novopil, Zelene Pole, and Maliyivka in the Novopavlivka direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled three enemy attacks near Verbove, Novodanilivka, and Pyatykhatky in the Orikhiv direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA forces from the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade are actively destroying enemy "Molniya-2" and "Zala" UAVs and "mechanical zoo" of RF, indicating successful counter-drone and counter-vehicle operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • WarGonzo (RF Source) provides a tactical map for the Zaporizhzhia front as of 19 AUG 25, indicating continuing RF offensive pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration holds a daily minute of silence at 09:00 to honor fallen defenders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports a 65-year-old woman was wounded in a hostile attack on Polohivskyi district. This confirms continued RF shelling of civilian targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Zaporizhzhia direction, dated 20 AUG 25, implying active combat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kupyansk Axis: Previous reports indicated a decisive shift of RF main effort with the capture of Ivanivka. RF continues strikes on settlements. UA reports successful tank sorties and drone operations against RF personnel and equipment. Commander of "Achilles" Regiment Fedorenko (UA source) reports RF plans to occupy Kupyansk by August 24. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports the first mechanized attack by RF on the left bank of Kupyansk in a long time. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Kupyansk direction as of 18 AUG 25. STERNENKO (UA source) reports that 905 drones has been delivered to the Defense Forces in the last two days. Николаевский Ванёк reports a new "singing" RF prisoner was taken under Muravka, Donetsk Oblast, identified as Vladimir Sergeevich from the 35th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. TASS reports the head of Kharkiv VGA Ganchev claims Russian forces are encircling Kupyansk. Воин DV (RF source) video shows aerial footage of an ongoing military engagement impacting a rural or semi-rural landscape, with multiple explosions visible, confirming continued RF operations near Novosyolovka in the Kupyansk direction. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Holubivka, Kupyansk, Petropavlivka, Moskovka and Zahryzove. TASS (RF source) reports that military expert Andrey Marochko states RF forces have started battles near Sobolevka and are advancing towards Blagodatovka near Kupyansk. Сливочный каприз (RF source) posts tactical maps for Kupyansk - Zaoskolye as of 19 AUG 25, implying active combat or planned operations in this specific area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports RF forces have entered Sobolevka in Kharkiv Oblast, and some UA forces attempted to flee. This indicates RF continues offensive actions in the Kupyansk area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled two enemy attacks near Kupyansk and Zahryzove in the Kupyansk direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • WarGonzo (RF Source) provides a tactical map for the Kupyansk direction as of 19 AUG 25, indicating continuing RF offensive pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Sumy Oblast: РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian forces actively destroying the enemy in Sumy Oblast, pushing back Russians near Oleksiivka and Yunakivka. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of a destroyed UA M577 command post vehicle in Sumy Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing an RF truck with ammunition epically destroyed by a Ukrainian drone on the way to Sumy Oblast. TASS reports that RF forces have improved their tactical position near Yunakovka, Sumy Oblast. Операция Z (RF source) thermal imagery video claims successful destruction of UA armored vehicles by Spetsnaz "Anvar" and VDV units supporting an offensive on Sumy. РБК-Україна reports a 57-year-old woman injured by a KAB strike on Novoslobidska community, Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new UAVs on northern Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports a missile strike on Sumy. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted photo messages confirming a missile strike on an educational institution. НгП раZVедка (RF source) posts a mocking caption suggesting RF strikes or activity in Shostka. RF reconnaissance UAVs are operating near Putyvl. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Sumy. РБК-Україна reports a series of explosions. Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 new RF UAVs detected east of Bilopillya. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports continued RF attacks on Sumy. Colonelcassad shares video footage from the 68th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th Army, Western Military District. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs. UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs. TASS (RF source) claims that Ukrainian Armed Forces command in Sumy Oblast has committed all resources to outflank RF forces in Yunakivka. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video showing two individuals in a wooded area with abandoned cars and a quad bike, claiming it depicts RF forces marauding in border villages of Kursk Oblast. Kotsnews (RF source) posts video with caption "Syrsky: Kursk - best result among all major operations," which is an RF information operation. MoD Russia (RF source) video claiming a BM-21 Grad MLRS crew eliminated a manpower cluster. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts video of a Lancet loitering munition preparation and strike. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, with 7 repelled assaults. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University. РБК-Україна (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University. Alex Parker Returns (RF) claims the Sumy State University was hit by a "Flamingo missile." Два майора (RF source) posts video showing an RF FPV drone strike. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy strike UAV on northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. RF activity on the Sumy direction, with an aerial view of an exploding vehicle. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) asserts that RF forces have been defeated in Sumy Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a video of drone-guided artillery or air strikes. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) amplifies Syrsky's (misquoted) statements. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts a photo message showing activity on the Eastern Direction. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports a severe injury to an RF General in Kursk Oblast from a HIMARS strike. New Intel: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video from local residents showing a visual confirmation of RF "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on Sumy State University. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAV threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS (RF source) claims that military expert Yan Gagin states AFU unsuccessfully counterattack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) MoD Russia (RF source) video shows Uragan MLRS crews eliminating AFU armored vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) MoD Russia (RF source) video shows T-80BVM tanks of the Sever Group of Forces eliminating AFU hardware. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF has again attacked civilian infrastructure in Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast moving south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of enemy UAVs on the north, east, and south of Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) An explosion was heard in Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Sumy Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UA source) video indicates UA forces are expanding their buffer zone in the Sumy region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) video shows two individuals in a wooded area, likely RF personnel, but content is general and not highly specific to Sumy operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO (UA source) posts a photo message with incendiary content, implying attacks on Russian border regions, which is a PSYOP. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat from the northeast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts a photo message showing a battlefield map for the Sumy direction, indicating active counterattacks by VSU and the use of SU-27 fighter jets for strikes on RF positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Hirky of Sumy region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in central Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts photo messages claiming foreign mercenaries were destroyed in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Старше Эдды (RF source) posts photo messages claiming Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups (SRG) attempted an infiltration into Bryansk Oblast, resulting in 3 killed and 3 captured (including a Ukrainian SOF captain) by SOBR and FSB. This RF claim indicates continued UA deep strike/reconnaissance efforts into RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) and Операция Z (RF source) repost images and claims regarding the alleged Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast. This indicates a coordinated RF information operation regarding perceived Ukrainian incursions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad (RF source) also reposts the claim regarding the alleged Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast, confirming widespread RF dissemination of this information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad (RF source) video claims to show the destruction of a temporary deployment point (PVD) and an armored fighting vehicle (BBM) of the 116th Territorial Defense Brigade (TrO) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, using a "Forpost" UAV in Obody, Sumy Oblast. This indicates continued RF targeting of UA rear assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO (UA source) reports on PERUN Industries operating in Sumy Oblast, likely an arms or drone manufacturing facility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New intel: KAB launches by RF tactical aviation reported on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a photo message showing a tactical map for the Sumy direction. The caption suggests ongoing combat activity in the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO (UA source) reports drone safety zones in multiple RF oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports that law enforcement agencies claim that the occupation of part of Kursk Oblast by the Armed Forces of Ukraine was enabled by the embezzlement of funds during the construction of fortifications. This is a significant RF information operation, blaming corruption for military setbacks and indirectly acknowledging Ukrainian presence in Kursk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New groups of UAVs reported entering Sumy Oblast, heading towards Khotyn. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports a massive enemy strike on a private sector area in Okhtyrka community, Sumy Oblast, with no casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ASTRA (UA source) reports 12 people injured in Okhtyrka, Sumy Oblast, following an RF attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • РБК-Україна (UA source) reports a massive enemy drone strike on Okhtyrka, Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports that a heavy mechanized brigade of the AFU is being withdrawn from under Sumy due to losses. This is an RF information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports that special companies of the "Shkval" battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, recruited from prisoners with acute infectious diseases, have arrived in Sumy Oblast. This is a RF information operation intended to demoralize UA and create fear. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled nine enemy attacks near Hrabovske, Myropillya, Pokrovka, and Popivka in the Sumy direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • A UAV from Sumy Oblast is heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Север.Реалии (UA source) reports Russian forces attacked Okhtyrka in Sumy Oblast with drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ASTRA (UA source) reports 12 people injured in Sumy Oblast after a Russian attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video depicts two individuals in military uniform with a "trophy" red civilian car, which they claim to have "looted with the guys." This indicates a potential instance of RF forces engaging in looting, which can impact local civilian sentiment and highlight disciplinary issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports consequences of mass enemy UAV attacks on Sumy and Odesa regions, with photos confirming widespread damage to civilian infrastructure, including a burning building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Poltava Oblast: Poltava and its community without electricity after massive overnight attack. RF drones attacked a gas transportation system facility and Kremenchuk oil refinery, causing extensive fires and smoke plumes. Unexploded cluster munitions found in Kremenchuk. Supply of Russian oil through "Druzhba" pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia suspended due to UA UAV attacks (now reportedly resumed). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • A UAV from Poltava Oblast is heading towards Myrhorod. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Poltava OVA explains that a radiation alarm was mistakenly triggered instead of an air raid alarm. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by RF tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast, with a high-speed target moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast (likely a cruise missile). UA sources report 4 missiles from Kharkiv Oblast now over Poltava Oblast, heading towards Kremenchuk. Groups of enemy strike UAVs from northern Kharkiv Oblast are primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. This confirms Poltava and Kremenchuk remain significant targets for RF deep strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kyiv Oblast: Car explosion in Podilskyi district, Kyiv, claimed by RF as "Ukrainian partisans" blowing up a military vehicle. Enemy UAVs attacked Kyiv Oblast overnight, damaging a hangar in Boryspil district. Multiple air raid alerts due to MiG-31K takeoffs and ballistic missile threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kyiv Military Administration reports a minute of silence is held daily at 09:00 to honor fallen defenders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts photos showing construction of a dual-purpose shelter at school #186 for 1060 people, indicating continued efforts to protect civilians from attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Overall Frontline: RF continues employment of FPV drone swarms and Lancet loitering munitions, with a reported 20% increase in Lancet strikes. UA inflicted significant personnel losses (1010 RF personnel in the last 24h, total 276,300 since year start; 890 RF personnel liquidated in the last 24 hours). UA deep strikes into RF territory include the Syzran Oil Refinery (Samara Oblast), Olya seaport (Astrakhan Oblast), the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast, and a drone attack on Azot chemical plant in Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol Krai. 61 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed by UA. Prisoner exchange of 84 servicemen conducted. Tu-95MS strategic bombers are airborne, indicating potential for new missile launches. RF sources confirm Trump's phone call with Putin and the initiation of preparation for a tripartite meeting. Trump, European leaders, and Zelenskyy will hold another virtual meeting. Zelenskyy confirmed an arms deal with the US, proposing to purchase $90 billion in weapons. Zelenskyy stated he is ready for unconditional talks with Putin, leaving territorial questions to them. Security guarantees for Ukraine are planned to be formulated within 7-10 days. Macron discussed strengthening sanctions if Russia refuses to end the conflict and hopes for a trilateral meeting. NATO Secretary General Rutte stated there is an irreversible path for Ukraine into NATO, but membership is not currently discussed; arms supplies will continue through NATO countries. No discussion of Ukrainian territorial concessions at White House. Putin has spoken with nine foreign leaders in three days. Non-European countries will also participate in formulating security guarantees. ASTRA reports Ursula von der Leyen's statement on return of abducted Ukrainian children. TASS reports 23 UA UAVs shot down over RF and annexed Crimea overnight. RF MoD reports 23 UAVs shot down overnight. РФ reports 236/280 enemy targets shot down/suppressed by UA. RF intelligence claims a US M113 APC with RF and US flags is operating in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reports a large Starlink outage. Joint statement after Trump-Zelenskyy talks cancelled. Trump suggests Putin agreed to security guarantees for Ukraine and that territory exchange based on current front lines needs discussion. Trump believes RF will no longer attack Ukraine and expresses confidence in releasing over a thousand POWs soon. Macron proposes a four-way meeting. The "Druzhba" oil pipeline (Nikolske station) has resumed operations after UA drone strike. Putin reportedly proposed meeting Zelenskyy in Moscow during his call with Trump. Germany is working with partners on security guarantees for Ukraine. Politico reports US considering Hungary for a Putin-Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. TASS reports RF forces shot down 42 Ukrainian UAVs overnight over Russian regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Vologograd Airport restrictions lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Tambov Airport temporarily restricted for flights. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Nizhny Novgorod Airport temporarily restricted for flights. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports restrictions at Nizhny Novgorod airport have been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Voronezh Oblast reports at least 7 UAVs shot down/suppressed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF MoD reports 42 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight. This is corroborated by Russian telegram channels like Дневник Десантника🇷🇺. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Операция Z (RF source) reports Trump stated that a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy is "in the process of preparation." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) reports total combat losses of RF personnel for the last 24 hours are 1190. Total since Feb 24, 2022: 277,490. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) provides the full breakdown of RF combat losses: 1190 personnel, 2 tanks, 13 armored personnel vehicles, 24 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 2 air defense systems, 1 aircraft, 1 helicopter, 10 UAVs, 1 cruise missile, 23 vehicles and fuel tankers, and 3 units of special equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ASTRA (UA source) posts photos and video of a fire suppression operation in Odesa Oblast, related to the attack on fuel and energy infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Операція Z (RF source) states that a military journalist reports an attempted terrorist attack in Izhevsk by a Central Asian native. This is an internal RF security matter, not directly related to military operations in Ukraine. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video showing an FSB operation in Izhevsk, detaining a Central Asian native suspected of preparing a terrorist attack. This is an internal RF security matter. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • Bloomberg reports Europe expects the US to continue providing intelligence and equipment to Ukraine through European partners. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Fighterbomber (RF source) posts a video of two military helicopters, likely Mi-24 or Mi-35, flying low over a rural, cultivated field. This indicates RF air reconnaissance or patrol mission. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Rybar (RF source) reports a "Forpost" UAV destroyed a Ukrainian landing craft. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • STERNENKO (UA source) launches a fundraising campaign for "TOTAL RUSORIZ" (total Russian annihilation) with a goal of 100,000,000 UAH. This indicates continued UA fundraising efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO further reports that the campaign has reached 2 million UAH. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO further reports that the campaign has reached 3 million UAH. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO (UA source) reports that the fundraising campaign has now reached 5 million UAH. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • WarGonzo (RF source) reports that the "Birds of Madyar" UAV battalion is actively operating on the Dobropillya direction on 7.2 GHz frequencies. This is an RF intelligence report of a UA unit's operational frequency. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UA source) posts photos demonstrating military training as a "guarantee of confidence in battle." This indicates continued UA training and morale building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ГУР (UA source) reports Russia is using a new UAV with LTE communication and remote control capabilities, indicating enemy technological adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts photos of morning coffee in Kyiv, a morale-boosting message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Bloomberg reports "about 10 countries are ready to send troops to Ukraine as part of security guarantees." This indicates evolving discussions on security guarantees that may include troop commitments, significantly changing the dynamics of international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Macron has again stated that one of Ukraine's security guarantees should be the presence of "deterrence forces" from European militaries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade posts a photo with the caption "The enemy doesn't see you yet. But he should already be afraid." This is a morale-boosting message, likely part of a public relations campaign. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • The White House reportedly seeks to hold a Zelenskyy-Putin summit in Budapest, according to Politico. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Операция Z (RF source) confirms that Budapest is being considered as a summit location for Putin, Trump, and Zelenskyy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Russian sources (Операция Z) are leveraging a quote from Scott Bessent, former U.S. Treasury Secretary, discussing a "10% markup" on US arms sales to Europe and Ukraine. This is an RF information operation aimed at discrediting Western aid and portraying it as financially opportunistic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) acknowledges and provides context to the RF information operation regarding Scott Bessent's statements on arms sales markup. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Colonelcassad video shows a man speaking about self-organization and acting like "partisan cells," emphasizing independent action. This could be interpreted as a call for decentralized resistance or support for RF operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RBC-Ukraine reports that the National Guard of Ukraine's "Rubizh" brigade is collecting funds for the restoration of destroyed property and equipment. This indicates direct resource needs for UA units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • РБК-Україна (UA source) reports that RF launched 93 drones and attacked with two Iskander-M ballistic missiles across Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports that one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 62 UAVs were shot down overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ASTRA (UA source) reports that RF attacked Ukraine overnight with 93 drones and 2 Iskander-M missiles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) confirms one ballistic missile and 62 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ТАСС reports that the Investigative Committee has completed the investigation into former Deputy Minister of Defense of RF, Pavel Popov. This indicates internal RF legal proceedings potentially related to corruption or mismanagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ТАСС reports that the US National Intelligence has stripped 37 former and current US intelligence officers of access to secret data. This is an internal US security matter. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts a photo message that appears to be a fundraising appeal, featuring sports memorabilia. This indicates continued UA fundraising efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Два майора (RF source) reports on a Russian citizen attempting to illegally cross the administrative border into Crimea via a checkpoint. This highlights RF's ongoing border security efforts for annexed territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Rybar (RF source) posts a photo message titled "Drone-spotters," depicting an RF military operative preparing a drone for flight, emphasizing the role of UAVs in directing aviation and artillery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kotsnews (RF source) discusses "Indian US policy and Macron's mood," implying diplomatic discussions. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts a lengthy political commentary on Zelenskyy's supposed focus on PR over military victories, implying that Ukraine is preparing to concede territory due to Western influence. This is a RF information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Новости Москвы (RF source) reports that Hong Kong and swine flu will be present in Russia this year. This is a public health warning for RF domestic population. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • ТАСС reports on Trump's directive to paint the Mexico border wall black, an internal US political matter. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • Воин DV (RF source) provides "fresh news" on peace negotiations, implying ongoing diplomatic processes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Север.Реалии (UA source) reports that the "Higher School of Economics" will study how Russian students relate to "traditional values." This is an internal RF social study. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) discusses the first results of requirements for Russian language knowledge and legal residency for foreigners, implying internal migration/mobilization efforts within RF. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) states that European defense assets are falling amidst reports of a ceasefire in Ukraine, citing The Financial Times. This indicates a perceived economic impact of peace talks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Военкор Котенок (RF source) reports that 42 enemy aircraft-type drones were destroyed by RF air defense overnight, corroborating previous reports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: ТАСС (RF source) reports on a new Russian bill for free two-time meals for schoolchildren, indicating a domestic social policy focus not directly related to military operations. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: ТАСС (RF source) reports on discussions within the RF government regarding requiring telecom operators and internet providers to notify law enforcement of digital crimes. This indicates internal RF legal and security developments. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Politico (RF source) reports that Macron and Starmer are unlikely to send troops to Ukraine due to their own political weakness. This is an RF information operation aimed at influencing public perception of Western support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Операция Z (RF source) reports a German SDPG deputy statement claiming Germany cannot send troops to Ukraine due to troop shortages. This is an RF information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Europe believes Trump's peace talks will fail but supports them to reveal the Kremlin's true intentions. This reflects a nuanced international stance on ongoing diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: STERNENKO reports a fundraising campaign has reached 12 million UAH, indicating continued public support for UA military efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Новости Москвы photo message and text indicate a "logistical collapse" at Ozon (Russian e-commerce company). This highlights potential internal economic and logistical strain within RF that could indirectly impact military sustainment if widespread. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Два майора video shows testing of "Skif" body armor in saltwater and against small arms/grenade impacts, concluding its reliability. This demonstrates RF efforts to improve soldier protection, potentially for operations in varied environments, including amphibious. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Germany: RBK-Ukraine reports that four Bundeswehr vehicles were burned by unknown individuals in Germany. This is a domestic security incident and not directly related to military operations in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS photo message reports that the SDPG (German Social Democratic Party) is ready to discuss sending Bundeswehr troops to Ukraine only in conjunction with American soldiers. This indicates a conditional commitment that links German deployment to US involvement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: РБК-Україна reports that the British Chief of Staff stated the UK is ready to send troops to Ukraine to protect its sky and ports. This indicates evolving and potentially escalating international commitments from key allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Bryansk Oblast, RF: AV БогомаZ reports that seven enemy UAVs of aircraft type were destroyed over Bryansk Oblast by RF Air Defense. Colonelcassad (RF source) video shows an Iskander strike, linked with ZALA UAV reconnaissance, destroying a UA long-range UAV launch site. This implies a combined RF ISR-strike capability targeting high-value UA drone assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Colonelcassad reports a RAM-2X UAV was shot down by Russian forces in Belgorod Oblast. This confirms continued UA drone activity into RF territory, specifically targeting Belgorod. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts a photo message with the caption "F-16 struck Tetkino?", implying a potential UA F-16 strike on Russian territory. This is currently unconfirmed and likely an RF information operation. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: TASS reports FSB detained Ukrainian saboteurs in Bryansk Oblast, claiming they were trained by Western special services. This is a RF information operation intended to justify RF security actions and externalize blame. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Crimea: RBC-Ukraine reports that Russians have intensified mass "filtration measures" in Crimea. This indicates increased RF internal security operations in occupied territories, likely aimed at suppressing dissent or identifying individuals with ties to Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a photo message with the caption "Crimea is close in size to Texas, Trump said. He also turns out to be a good geographer." This is an RF information operation framing geopolitical statements. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
• Kryvyi Rih: Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of the morning of 20 AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Vinnitsa Oblast: The Office of the Prosecutor General (UA source) reports that the head of the State Emergency Service in Vinnytsia Oblast is suspected of forced labor using subordinate rescuers for his private construction projects, and a human trafficking scheme has been exposed. This indicates an internal UA corruption issue. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• International: Israel's Defense Minister approved a plan to capture Gaza, named "Gideon's Chariots - 2." This is a new development in a separate conflict, but could potentially divert international attention or resources. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ASTRA (UA source) reports that the Israeli Minister of Defense has approved a plan for the IDF to establish control over Gaza, citing The Jerusalem Post. This confirms the ongoing shift in the international security environment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: WarGonzo (RF source) posts a photo message marking the three-year anniversary of Darya Dugina's death. This is an RF information operation used to reinforce anti-Ukrainian sentiment. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a video message discussing Azerbaijan and Albania, implying Trump's role in resolving historical conflicts. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Полиция Хабаровского края (RF source) posts a photo message about fraudsters deceiving people into becoming "droppers" (money mules). This is a domestic RF law enforcement alert. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: ТАСС (RF source) reports the Ministry of Education has created a list of modern patriotic works for home reading. This is an internal RF social/educational policy. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ photo message reports a working visit to Ukraine by a delegation from the Swedish Armed Forces, led by Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Karl-Johan Edström. This indicates continued bilateral military cooperation and support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Current Conditions: No new significant weather events. Previous reports of challenging terrain (mud-covered vehicles), localized forest fires, and strong winds affecting drone operations persist. RF video shows ATVs operating in heavy mud, confirming difficult off-road conditions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Impact from Attacks: Large industrial fires from UA deep strikes (Syzran Oil Refinery, Ryazan gunpowder workshop, Azot chemical plant, Nikolske oil pumping station) and RF strikes (Kremenchuk Oil Refinery, SOCAR oil depot in Odesa, Triton oil depot in Izmail, gas transportation system in Poltava Oblast) are generating significant smoke and potential environmental contamination, impacting local air quality and visibility. This also includes localized damage and power outages in Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, and occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblasts due to RF drone and missile attacks on civilian and energy infrastructure. The finding of unexploded cluster munitions in Kremenchuk poses an ongoing environmental and safety hazard. The burning of the Kremenchuk oil refinery from RF "Geranium" (Shahed) strikes is explicitly highlighted as ongoing. ASTRA and TASS report total power outage in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to UA UAV strikes, according to RF official Balitsky. Mash na Donbasse reports electricity outage in Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to UA UAV strike on a high-voltage line. Powerful fire in Izmail (Odesa Oblast) after "Geran" (Shahed) activity, confirmed to be a strike on fuel arteries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Humanitarian Impact: Confirmed fatalities and injured personnel (7 fatalities, 23 injured in Kharkiv; 3 fatalities, 34 injured in Zaporizhzhia; 12 injured in Sumy Oblast, 1 injured in Odesa Oblast; 1 injured in Kherson Oblast) from RF strikes on civilian residential areas underscore severe humanitarian and environmental impacts. RF missile strike on a Jewish cemetery in Pervomaisk, Mykolaiv Oblast, highlights disregard for civilian and cultural sites. Water shortages in Donetsk further highlight civilian suffering due to infrastructure damage, with a video from Makeevka depicting civilians queuing for water. New civilian fatality reported in Nikopol due to RF shelling, one woman killed. Multiple ballistic missile launches towards Odesa, indicating continued RF targeting of population centers. TASS reports Ukraine evacuated over 52,000 people from Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Other Factors: RF reports of heat aiding RF forces in evading UA thermal imagers on the Zaporizhzhia front, suggesting localized environmental exploitation. Solar flares expected to intensify magnetic storms, potentially affecting satellite communications, GPS, and radio signals (C2/ISR). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Current Air Alerts: RF is attacking Ukraine with Shahed drones (Air Raid Map shows red highlights across Ukraine). KABs launched towards Donetsk Oblast. Reconnaissance UAVs reported in central Sumy Oblast, eastern Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, northern Donetsk Oblast, and Chernihiv Oblast (heading towards Nizhyn), with an enemy strike UAV from Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, and another UAV from Chernihiv Oblast moving into Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast. Aviation weapon threat declared for Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. A UAV is reported heading towards Pavlohrad. Multiple groups of UAVs reported from Dnipropetropavsk Oblast towards Donetsk Oblast. KAB launches by RF tactical aviation reported on Sumy Oblast. Ballistic missile threats to Odesa are immediate and require rapid air defense responses. Renewed explosions in Zaporizhzhia, coupled with reports of total power outage in occupied parts of the oblast, require immediate damage assessment and response. Izmail (Odesa Oblast) and Dunaisske are under attack from Shahed drones, which are now reportedly "minus." Air danger regime has been introduced in Lipetsk Oblast (yellow alert) and Yelets/surrounding areas (red alert for UAV attack threat). Air traffic restrictions implemented in Samara, Saratov, and Volgograd airports due to UAV threats. New air traffic restrictions in Tambov and Nizhny Novgorod airports due to UAV threats. RF tactical aviation activity observed in northeastern and southeastern directions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Rospotrebnadzor names main epidemiological threats in Russia, which could indicate a potential public health concern impacting RF personnel strength or logistical focus. (LOW CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske Axis): RF (elements of 98th VDV Division) maintain a foothold in eastern Kanal microdistrict, continuing battalion-sized mechanized assaults. UA units executed tactical withdrawal to prepared defensive positions. UA 93rd Brigade conducting clearance operations in Hruzke and Vesele (Dobropillya area) with tank and robotic support. UA Azov Brigade actively repelling RF attacks in Katerynivka. RF 85th OMCBR in Soledar direction. RF 36th OA forces (37th OMCBR, 336th Marine Brigade) pressing towards Maliyivka, Shevchenko, and Yanvarske. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF claims destruction of a UA M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzer near Myrnohrad by FPV drones from "Rubicon" Center. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Colonelcassad (RF source) video claims to show the destruction of a temporary deployment point (PVD) of the 14th NGU Separate Brigade with a FAB-3000 with UMPK near Dymytrov/Myrnohrad, and a UAV control point of the 34th UA Separate Brigade with a LMUR (Light Multipurpose Guided Missile) near Antonivka, Kherson Oblast. This indicates RF continues large-scale aerial bombing and precision strikes on high-value targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports RF forces issued a tactical update stating they "pushed the AFU out of the eastern part of Serebryanka, DPR, with about 60% of the settlement now under Russian control." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: TASS reports Russian forces have started battles on the southern approaches to Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: TASS video reports that Southern Grouping fighters destroyed two UAV control points and a dug-out of the AFU in DPR. One of the destroyed UAV C2 points is stated to be a communications antenna, indicating a broader target set. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: MoD Russia video indicates RF forces with howitzers and Orlan-10 UAVs destroyed ammunition depots and manpower of AFU units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovskoe Direction): RF claims "big breakthrough" and liberation of Iskra, with advances up to 1.5km towards Sokil from Ocheretyne. UA forces (1st Azov Corps) cleared Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz, directly countering RF claims. UA Commander Syrskyi reports successful UA advances in Dobropillya and Pokrovsk directions. TASS reports RF 'Vostok' grouping advanced into Ivankiv, Poltavka, and Zeleny Gay. Ukrainian National Guard relocating units from Kharkiv to Pokrovsk direction. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBR) successfully destroying a camouflaged RF tank using an FPV drone (Vidarr), after aerial reconnaissance identified the target. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) reports "intense fighting" in the Pokrovsk direction, with RF forces having entered Rodynske from Pivnichne. This indicates continued RF offensive pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • WarGonzo (RF Source) provides a tactical map for the Donetsk front as of 19 AUG 25, indicating continuing RF offensive pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Сливочный каприз (RF source) provides a new RF claimed tactical map for the Pokrovsk direction, dated 19 AUG 25, captioned "Krasnoarmeysk - Mayak." This continues to highlight RF focus and claimed advances in this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UA reports capture of an RF prisoner from 150th Division by Azov units, and significant RF losses in Azov's areas. Mandatory evacuation of families with children in Druzhkivka suggests anticipated RF advances or increased threat. Closure of Ukrposhta branches in Konstantinovka from August 19 further indicates increasing threat to this logistics hub. Clashes reported near Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, Oleksandra-Kalynove, and Pleschiyivka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Pleschiyivka, Stepanivka, Yablunivka and Rusyn Yar in the Toretsk direction. STERNENKO (UA source) reports that Phoenix UAS tactical group is "cutting Russian logistics" in the Konstantinovka direction. Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) claims RF 4th OMCBR continues to attack towards Delievka – Aleksandro-Shulgino and attempts to break through and consolidate in Belaya Hora. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Toretsk, Scherbynivka and towards Oleksandro-Shultyne, Pleschiyivka, Rusyn Yar in thetsk direction, as well as Poltavka and Berestok. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts a tactical map for the Konstantinovka direction, indicating continued RF focus on this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports that Kyiv is preparing a series of strikes on Kramatorsk, blaming Russia. This is a RF information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled three enemy attacks near Druzhba, Chasiv Yar, and Bila Hora in the Kramatorsk direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled four enemy attacks near Pivnichne, Pivdenne, and Niu York in the Toretsk direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video shows a tank engaging a building, likely occupied by RF forces, indicating continued UA efforts to clear entrenched enemy positions. The commentary specifies RF refusal to surrender from a basement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Luhansk Oblast (Siversk Direction): RF forces report combat operations with drone-guided artillery and ATGM teams. RF MoD claims destruction of AFU stronghold in Krasny Liman direction. RF aims to advance 2 km to close a "fire bag" for AFU in Kremensky forests. Russian forces reportedly broke through Ukrainian defense lines in the Lyman district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Serebryanka, Siversk, Vyyimka, Fedorivka, Pereyizne and towards Siversk in the Siversk direction. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Kolodezi in Donetsk People's Republic (Luhansk direction). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 63rd Brigade utilizing three FPV drones to neutralize a Russian tank threatening Ukrainian positions east of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast. RF MoD confirms liberation of Kolodezi and Voronoye. Colonelcassad reports on mobile fire groups operating in Belgorod Oblast and Luhansk People's Republic. TASS reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including foreign mercenaries, suffered 4,500 personnel losses in the past week on the Luhansk People's Republic borders, with the Southern Group of Forces inflicting the most damage. TASS claims that Kyiv has struck Lisichansk, LPR, more than 10 times in the past week, resulting in civilian casualties. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Luhansk direction as of 18 AUG 25. Сливочный каприз (RF source) posts a summary of combat operations between August 14-17, 2025, which likely includes the Luhansk direction. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Fedorivka and Vyyimka in the Siversk direction, as well as Serebrianka and Vyimka. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) has provided a photo message of a tactical map for the Siversk direction. Mash na Donbasse reports over 1000 residents of Kamyshnoye and Gerasimovka without power due to a severe fire in LPR. Сливочный каприз (RF source) photo messages with caption "19.08.25 Siversk - Vyyemka" provides RF claimed tactical map of the Siversk direction. Сливочный каприз (RF source) video demonstrates active combat operations in the Siversk direction, including drone strikes on enemy positions and personnel, confirming ongoing high-intensity engagements. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video shows 63rd Mechanized Brigade destroying RF assault groups in the Lyman direction. Colonelcassad (RF source) has posted a tactical map for the Seversk direction as of 19 AUG 25, captioned "Series of successes," which highlights RF claimed gains. New intel indicates RF video footage of military vehicle (likely truck or personnel carrier) moving through wooded area. Target is tracked and "TARGET CAPTURED" (ЦЕЛЬ ЗАХВАЧЕНА) displayed in Russian. Rybar (RF source) has posted a tactical map depicting military activity in the Severky Donets direction, dated August 19, 2025, at 19:00, showing color-coded territorial control and combat areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled five enemy attacks near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Vyimka, and Rozdolivka in the Lyman direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled nine enemy attacks near Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Vyimka, and Rozdolivka in the Siversk direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) reports "intense combat" and "breakthrough attempts" in the Lyman direction, with RF forces actively regrouping and bringing additional forces, likely from the 8th Combined Arms Army. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports that RF forces "pushed the AFU out of the eastern part of Serebryanka, DPR, with about 60% of the settlement now under Russian control." This refers to Serebryanka in Luhansk Oblast (often referred to as DNR in RF sources). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • WarGonzo (RF Source) provides a tactical map for the Krasnolimanskoye (Lyman) Direction as of 19 AUG 25, indicating continuing RF offensive pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Сливочный каприз (RF source) provides a tactical map for "Krasny Liman - Kirovsk (Zarechnoye)" dated 20 AUG 25. This indicates continued RF focus and claimed activity in this specific area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: РБК-Україна reports that Ukrainian military personnel are explaining that the enemy is undertaking "dozens of attacks in one go" in the Lyman direction. This confirms the high intensity of RF pressure on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): Sustained RF artillery and FPV drone attacks on Nikopol and surrounding communities. RF claims control of all settlements at the junction of DNR and Dnipropetropavsk Oblast after liberation of Iskra. Extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Nikopol confirmed. Ballistic missile strike on outskirts of Dnipro confirmed with damage to civilian property. Overnight drone attack on Pokrovska community, Synelnykivskyi district, caused fires at agricultural enterprises. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Voronoye in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetropavsk Regional State Administration) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopolshchyna. A ballistic missile threat on Synelnykove and a high-speed target from the east on Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Explosions were heard in Pavlohrad. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports destruction of a UA T-72 tank by an FPV drone in Ivanivka, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected near Pavlohrad, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a drone (UAV) threat to Pavlohrad. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "powerful explosions" in Pavlohrad. TASS (RF source) claims UA forces in Iskra, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, killed an elderly female civilian. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropropetropavsk Regional State Administration) reports that RF struck Pavlohrad with a missile overnight, causing a fire. Воин DV (RF source) video footage from an aerial platform with thermal imaging, focused on a wooded area on the border of Dnipropetropavsk Oblast and DNR, targeting what appears to be personnel or equipment. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces struck Pavlohrad Repair and Mechanical Plant and Technical Equipment Plant. MoD Russia (RF source) video of servicemen from the Vostok Group of Forces describing the liberation of Iskra in Donetsk People's Republic. Mash на Донbasse (RF source) posts a UA UAV attacked a gas station in Yenakiieve, DNR. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports that UA forces inflicted a successful strike on a gas station in Yenakiieve. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports a substation hit by a "Geran" drone in Mezhove, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video of a burning power substation in Mezhove, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetropavsk Regional State Administration) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol, Marhanets, and Pokrovske communities throughout the day. Photos show damaged civilian buildings. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetropavsk and Donetsk Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of strike UAVs in eastern Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, heading towards Pavlohrad. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 1 "moped" (Shahed) heading towards Dnipro. UA Air Defense reports 7 enemy UAVs shot down over Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. ASTRA (UA source) reports one person injured after Russian attacks in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports the "SKALA" Regiment conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropropetropavsk and Donetsk Oblasts, confirming UA tactical gains. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) video claims destruction of a French "Caesar" self-propelled howitzer and an ammunition vehicle in the Dnipropetropavsk border region by "Vostok" Group of Forces, signaling continued RF focus on Western-supplied artillery. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video depicts a large building complex engulfed in flames and thick black smoke after overnight Shahed attacks in the Synelnykive district. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a photo message showing a tactical map for the Dnipropetrovsk direction. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in eastern Dnipropetropavsk. Colonelcassad (RF source) video shows a Lancet strike on a French CAESAR SPG in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, confirming the targeting and destruction of high-value Western-supplied artillery. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports aviation weapon threat for Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports an explosion in Pavlohrad. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetropavsk Regional State Administration) reports drone attacks on Pavlohrad overnight, causing fire and damage to a transport enterprise, with no casualties. This confirms continued RF targeting of transport infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts photos showing damaged residential buildings in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, confirming the impact of RF shelling on civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports aviation weapon threat for Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video claims to show FPV drone operators from the "Vostok" Group of Forces actively targeting enemy personnel in the Khoroshe (Dnipropetropavsk Oblast) area, indicating RF offensive actions and counter-rotation efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkivskyi District): UA Air Force alerts for high-speed targets and KAB launches. RF claims improved position near Krasny Perviy, controlling ~6 km of road to Dvorechnaya. A substantial increase (estimated 40%) in Russian EW emissions has been detected in the Kharkiv sector, primarily targeting Ukrainian reconnaissance UAVs and degrading ISR capabilities. Continued RF reconnaissance UAVs in northern and eastern Kharkiv Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Khatnye and Fyholivka in the South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction, and also Hlyboke, Kamyanka, Ambarne. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 4 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes in the past day. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. РБК-Україна reports 11 casualties in Kharkiv from recent RF attack. Олег Синєгубов, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, reports 3 additional casualties, bringing total to 11. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates the 11 casualties. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration (UA source), provided multiple photo messages showing damaged civilian residential buildings. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "continuing to pound Kharkiv" with "powerful explosions." РБК-Україна reports an explosion heard in Kharkiv. Mayor Igor Terekhov confirms "Shahed" hits in Industrialnyi district. Oleg Syniehubov confirms two casualties (25-year-old male, 79-year-old female) from drone strike. Subsequent reports from Oleg Syniehubov indicate 10-year-old boy, 19-year-old girl, 46-year-old male, and 47-year-old female hospitalized. Mayor Igor Terekhov reports one fatality and five injured. Kharkiv now reports four fatalities (up from three), including a one-year-old child and a 55-year-old woman, and 17 injured (including 6 children). Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) reports 5 people are currently missing. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and РБК-УкраїНА (UA source) have released additional video footage showing the ongoing search and rescue operation. ASTRA (UA source) has released photos and a drone video showing the extensive destruction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports on the drone attack on a residential high-rise. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА reports a 16-year-old boy became the fourth victim. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports five fatalities. STERNENKO (UA source) corroborates five fatalities. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates five fatalities. Север.Реалії (UA source) reports at least four fatalities. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) reports enemy strikes on Kharkiv and 10 settlements. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports five fatalities and at least 30 injured. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) reports the number of injured has increased to 20. ASTRA (UA source) also reports 30 injured. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts video and photo messages of the aftermath. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) declares August 18 a day of mourning. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports the number of injured has increased to 20. ASTRA (UA source) reports the number of fatalities has increased to 6. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) confirms 6 fatalities. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts an informational message. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the number of fatalities has risen to 7. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates 7 fatalities. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) also confirms 7 fatalities. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts video of border guards liquidating 5 enemy targets. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and Рыбарь (RF source) both post video of a military convoy with RF and US flags. ASTRA (UA source) posts video of a Russian attack on Kharkiv from the city's mayor. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video of Kharkiv mayor showing morning Shahed strikes. РБК-УкраїНА (UA source) posts video of Kharkiv mayor showing the moment of a Russian strike. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts video of Kharkiv, claiming "Tests continue. Be good!". ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing the moment of an RF strike on a residential building. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video showing medics attempting to resuscitate a small child. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, reports an additional three people sought medical attention, bringing total to 23. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts multiple photo messages indicating effective UA drone reconnaissance by the 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade. Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) has provided a photo message warning of fire danger. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on northern Kharkiv Oblast. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 24 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes last week. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video footage of a series of impacts in Kharkiv. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports that "Khartia" drones successfully located and struck an RF camp in Kharkiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts three photo messages depicting a battle map of the Kharkiv direction. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) posts a photo message celebrating Ukrainian leadership. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video showing civilian structures being transported by trucks at night. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a video of a formal gathering of international dignitaries, including Zelenskyy and Trump. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows drone operators of the 3rd Assault Brigade dropping munitions on RF in Kharkiv Oblast. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast is under bomb strike and threat of strike UAVs. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports RF KAB strikes on Ruska Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows 3rd Assault Brigade drone operators striking RF positions in Kharkiv Oblast while peace talks are ongoing. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast under bomb strike and UAV threat. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. A high-speed target is moving through Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast, likely a cruise missile. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Another high-speed target reported in Kharkiv Oblast, same course. UA sources report 4 missiles from Kharkiv Oblast now over Poltava Oblast, heading towards Kremenchuk. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 16 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast sustained enemy strikes yesterday. TASS reports RF forces struck two UA locations in Khatnye and Chuhunivka, Kharkiv Oblast. Олексій Білошицький (UA source) video confirms ongoing rescue operations and significant damage in Kharkiv following drone strikes, highlighting continued RF attacks on civilian infrastructure. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a photo of a multi-story residential building in Kharkiv, extensively damaged, implying a successful RF strike. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports a Russian serviceman will be tried in Kharkiv Oblast for shooting Ukrainian soldiers at the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the new commander of the 13th NGU Brigade "Khartia" is Major Daniel "Cuba" Kitone. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) posts photos of humanitarian aid being delivered to military personnel on the Kharkiv direction. Colonelcassad (RF source) video shows an FPV drone strike by RF "Sever" Group on a building with AFU militants in Tsapovka, Kharkiv Oblast. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 video shows 9 direct hits by "STRIX" unit on the South-Slobozhanskyi direction, with drone footage of targeted enemy positions, a communication tower, and a vehicle, confirming ongoing successful UA strikes. STERNENKO (UA source) reports an FPV drone strike by RF forces on an emergency medical vehicle in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, indicating a continued disregard for protected civilian assets. ASTRA (UA source) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) both confirm a Russian drone strike on an ambulance in Kupyansk, injuring two people. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts multiple photo messages of military training (obstacle course) for psychological and physical preparation. A group of UAVs from Kharkiv Oblast is now heading towards Poltava Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports RF forces have started battles for taking Hlushchenkovo, Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled five enemy attacks near Vovchansk and Kamianka in the South Slobozhansky direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • WarGonzo (RF Source) provides a tactical map for the Kharkov direction as of 19 AUG 25, indicating continuing RF offensive pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat to Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Chernihiv Oblast: UA Air Force alerts for enemy reconnaissance UAVs, high-speed targets, and threat of strike UAVs. "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on a forward Ukrainian command post in Birino area confirmed. Ballistic missile impact in Honcharivske reported. RF claims destruction of a foreign mercenary legion's base. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Krasnyy Khutir of Chernihiv region, and Polushkyne, Karabany. Colonelcassad reports Kinzhal strike near Desna and Geran/Gerbera strikes near Semenivka (Chernihiv Oblast). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV threat to Brovary and Boryspil districts in Kyiv Oblast and a UAV threat to Kyiv. Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy UAVs on northern Chernihiv Oblast and in the Pryluky area. НгП раZVедка (RF source) claims "Geran" drones are "drilling" Chernihiv Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports enemy UAVs attacked Kyiv Oblast overnight, damaging a hangar in Boryspil district. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Chernihiv Oblast. MoD Russia (RF source) video claiming Geran-2 UAVs hit AFU special forces units of GUR near Zhadovo, Chernihiv region, and also an AFU forward command post near Birino. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UA source) reports UAVs in central Chernihiv Oblast near Pryluky. Операция Z (RF source) posts video claiming Geran strikes hit GUR special forces in Chernihiv. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy strike UAV on northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. UA Air Force reports a UAV threat in Chernihiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces struck a training center in Chernihiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for Chernihiv Oblast has been lifted. Latest UA Air Force reports an enemy UAV on Chernihiv Oblast. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports that RF drones attacked Chernihiv Oblast this morning, causing power outages in some settlements, confirming continued RF drone activity in the area and immediate civilian impact. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) corroborates that parts of Chernihiv Oblast are without electricity after the morning UAV attack, further confirming the immediate civilian impact. New Intel: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a reconnaissance UAV in Chernihiv Oblast near Berezna. Interception measures are engaged. The Air Force stresses that this UAV can be a spotter for enemy fire assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Unidentified UAV activity reported in northern Chernihiv Oblast. UAV heading towards Novgorod-Siverskyi, Borzna (Chernihiv Oblast). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts, with interception measures engaged. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • A UAV from Sumy Oblast is heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kherson Oblast (Left Bank Dnieper): UA reports destruction of an RF ammunition depot and four vehicles on the left bank. RF claims Lancet strike destroyed US M-777 howitzer and Ukrainian Bogdana SPG on right bank. Ukrainian Navy radio intercepts confirm loss of Russian Su-30SM fighter jet southeast of Snake Island. UA forces repelled 4-6 Russian army assaults. UA source claims reconnaissance units entered "Novaya Kakhovka" on the Kherson direction and are shelling enemy defenses. Southern Ukraine Defense Forces report continued strikes on enemy deployment areas, fire positions, and rear areas in the southern operational zone. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports strikes on Khadzhibeevka and Usatove (Odesa region), specifically targeting "marine BECs" and a 330kv power substation. TASS (RF source) claims that the "Kyiv-appointed" administration of Kherson has long since left the city and is operating remotely from Mykolaiv. TASS reports that the AFU lost a Starlink satellite communication station and 17 UAV control points in the zone of responsibility of the 'Vostok' grouping in the past 24 hours. Два майора (RF source) posts thermal imaging footage claiming to show activity in Kherson at night. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) provides operational information for the Southern Defense Forces. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Kherson direction as of 18 AUG 25. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction, and also clashes near Antonivsky bridge, Dniprovske, and near Bilohrudyy island. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of explosions and vehicle activity in the Kherson direction. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows artillerymen of the 49th Army hitting fortifications on the right bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson region. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) photo message provides operational information for the Southern Defense Forces as of 08:00 19 AUG 25, indicating continued UA monitoring and defense in the southern operational zone. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) photo message with caption "⚡️⚡️Сили оборони Півдня України продовжують уражати місця дислокації ворога, його вогневі позиції та тили." confirms ongoing UA deep strikes and counter-battery fire in the Southern operational zone. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) video shows a fire at a forestry enterprise near Chulakivka in Kherson Oblast, with plumes of smoke, confirming environmental impact from burning vegetation, likely related to conflict activity. Kotsnews (RF source) video depicts RF military medics operating in the Kherson direction, showcasing newly supplied evacuation equipment. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (UA source) video shows FPV operators of the "B.G" unit (Crimean SBU directorate) striking RF personnel on Kinburn Spit, confirming UA special operations and drone effectiveness in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Colonelcassad (RF source) video claims destruction of a UAV control point of the 34th UA Separate Brigade with a LMUR (Light Multipurpose Guided Missile) near Antonivka, Kherson Oblast. This indicates RF precision targeting of UA C2 elements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Rybar (RF source) video analysis shows ongoing battles near Aleshki and strikes on Kherson, depicting UA attempts to establish bridgeheads and RF counter-battery/air strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled three enemy attacks near Pishchanivka, Podstepne, and Krynky in the Kherson direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ASTRA reports one woman was injured in a Russian attack in Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Воин DV (RF source) video shows RF drone operators from the 5th Army, Vostok Group of Forces, destroying enemy personnel and equipment in the Vremevskoye direction (Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia border region), not Kherson. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) provides an updated operational summary for the Southern Defense Forces, indicating continued UA efforts to target enemy locations, fire positions, and rear areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Mykolaiv Oblast: РБК-Україна (UA source) reports an RF missile hit an ancient Jewish cemetery in Pervomaisk, Mykolaiv Oblast. This indicates continued RF targeting of civilian and cultural sites. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) also reports on the situation in Mykolaiv. RF activity has increased significantly in Mykolaiv Oblast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missile danger in Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts. Николаевский Ванёк reports ballistic missile (later corrected to Smerch MLRS) targeting Bilozerka, Mykolaiv Oblast. UA Air Force reports a high-speed target in Mykolaiv Oblast. Another Smerch MLRS strike reported on Bilozerka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Odesa Oblast: STERNENKO reports groups of strike UAVs in the north and near Odesa Oblast. РБК-Україна reports an alert from Odesa Oblast Military Administration calling residents to shelters due to strike UAVs. STERNENKO reports Odesa is under a massive "Shahed" drone attack, with explosions heard. Николаевский Ванёк reports reduction in drone numbers near Odesa. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports continued drone threats in Velyka Balka-Nerubaiske and Radisne-Velykyi Dalnyk (Odesa Oblast). ASTRA reports a large fire in Odesa after a massive Shahed strike. Операция Z (RF source) posts multiple photo and video messages reporting "powerful strikes on enemy objects in Odesa, fires in the city." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports that RF drones struck a Nova Poshta terminal in Odesa. Дневник Десантника (RF source) claims that their strike UAVs hit "several objects" in Odesa overnight. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна (UA source) confirm an RF drone strike on a fuel and energy infrastructure object and a two-story building in the suburbs of Odesa. ASTRA reports a fire on a fuel and energy infrastructure object in Odesa Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) reports Odesa was attacked by Shaheds all night. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video of the aftermath of strikes on an alleged SOCAR oil depot in Odesa Oblast. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims Geran drones destroyed a "giant fuel terminal" of SOCAR. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) reports 24 Shahed UAVs destroyed by Southern Defense Forces. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a map/graphic titled "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine August 17 - August 18, 2025," which likely includes Odesa. Colonelcassad also posts video of an explosion with "kurs_odessa" watermark. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video claiming a massive Shahed attack on SOCAR oil depot in Odesa Oblast. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims "Azerbaijani fuel tanks extinguished." Colonelcassad (RF source) comments that overnight strikes in Odesa targeted Nova Poshta objects and SOCAR. Два майора (RF source) posts video of significant damage to industrial or storage tanks in Odesa. Colonelcassad (RF source) also posts video showing the aftermath of attacks on SOCAR in Odesa. Операция Z (RF source) provides photos of a large fire, likely in Odesa. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows a significant fire at the SOCAR oil depot. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts photos showing a large fire at the SOCAR oil depot in Odesa. Kotsnews (RF source) posts videos confirming significant damage and fires. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) also posts video of the aftermath of the SOCAR oil depot strike. Два майора (RF source) has posted a photo message regarding Romania's desire to expand joint Black Sea patrolling with Bulgaria and Turkey. Colonelcassad (RF source) provides a summary of strikes. WarGonzo (RF source) posted videos showing the aftermath of the SOCAR strike in Odesa. STERNENKO video shows aerial footage likely from a drone, observing an area with what appear to be defensive positions or fortifications. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha reacting to the RF strike on the SOCAR oil depot. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile arrival in Dobroslav. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target on Odesa Oblast, heading northwest. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video shows multiple plumes of black smoke rising from various urban locations, likely Odesa, implying significant fires/explosions. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports the SBU uncovered an RF military intelligence agent group that coordinated shelling of Kyiv and carried out sabotage in Odesa Oblast. This indicates continued RF attempts at covert action in the region. An enemy reconnaissance UAV has been detected in the Black Sea waters near Odesa Oblast, with interception measures engaged. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF destroyed a UA radio point in Odesa Oblast using an Iskander missile. New intelligence indicates multiple ballistic missile launches towards Odesa Oblast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirms missile threat to Odesa. Explosions have been heard in Odesa. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports several groups of UAVs from Black Sea waters heading to Odesa Oblast. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports a "powerful Iskander strike" in Odesa destroyed a German IRIS-T SLM air defense system position. Николаевский Ванёк reports 17 "mopeds" (Shahed) from the sea heading towards/through Tatarbunary. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports ballistic missile arrival against a UA air defense position in Odesa. Николаевский Ванёк reports 20 "mopeds" from Tatarbunary heading to Izmailsky district, and that the first 6 "mopeds" are approaching Izmail. Powerful fire in Izmail (Odesa Oblast) after "Geran" (Shahed) activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • "Night Storm over the Danube: Strike on AFU fuel arteries in Izmail" reported by RF source. This confirms the target of the previous Shahed activity in Izmail and its impact on UA logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports overnight enemy attacks on Izmail, Odesa Oblast, and Okhtyrka, Sumy Oblast, with fires successfully contained and no casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (РБК-Україна source) reports destroying 5 Shaheds overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • WarGonzo (RF source) video shows Russian drones destroying an oil depot near Izmail, confirming the successful strike on a fuel storage facility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports a mass UAV attack on fuel and energy infrastructure in Odesa Oblast, causing one injury. This confirms RF targeting of critical infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ASTRA (UA source) reports one person injured as a result of the attack on Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ASTRA (UA source) provides photos of infrastructure damage in Izmail after the Russian attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Военкор Котенок (RF source) confirms destruction of Triton oil depot in Izmail and damage to Excellion tanker by 30-40 drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Alex Parker Returns photo message claims 30 "Geranium" drones struck the Triton oil depot in Odesa Oblast, destroying reservoirs of Azerbaijani oil, linking it to a shift in political directives. This is likely an RF information operation with potential for operational impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Colonelcassad video shows additional footage of the burning oil depot in Izmail, corroborating the extensive damage to critical fuel infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RF claims destruction of AFU ammunition depot. 578 RF strikes on 14 settlements over past day. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and also near Novoandriyivka in Orikhiv direction, and Prymorske, Novoandriyivka. A 64-year-old man was wounded in a hostile attack on Polohivskyi district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Tolstoy, Komyshuvakha, Zelene Pole, Maliyivka, Myrne, Zaporizhzhke, Olhivske in the Novopavlivka direction, and also near Kamyanske and Novoandriyivka in the Orikhiv direction, as well as Zirka, Vilne Pole, Voskresenka, Shevchenko, Novodarivka, Olhivske, Novopil, Zelene Pole, Maliyivka, Shevchenko and towards Oleksandrohrad and Komyshuvakha. Colonelcassad reports VKC and missile forces conducted strikes on targets in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Total power outage in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to UA UAV strikes on high-voltage lines. TASS reports power outage did not affect ZNPP operation. Colonelcassad reports RF's 57th Motor Rifle Brigade "Vostok" destroying UA material and technical means, including Starlink terminals. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA Air Defense is working in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts, with interception measures engaged. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF forces launched 583 strikes on 11 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports electricity supply in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been restored, confirming previous outages due to UA UAV strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ASTRA (UA source) also reports electricity supply restored across occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled 10 enemy attacks near Novodarivka, Olhivske, Novopil, Zelene Pole, and Maliyivka in the Novopavlivka direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled three enemy attacks near Verbove, Novodanilivka, and Pyatykhatky in the Orikhiv direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA forces from the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade are actively destroying enemy "Molniya-2" and "Zala" UAVs and "mechanical zoo" of RF, indicating successful counter-drone and counter-vehicle operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • WarGonzo (RF Source) provides a tactical map for the Zaporizhzhia front as of 19 AUG 25, indicating continuing RF offensive pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration holds a daily minute of silence at 09:00 to honor fallen defenders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports a 65-year-old woman was wounded in a hostile attack on Polohivskyi district. This confirms continued RF shelling of civilian targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Zaporizhzhia direction, dated 20 AUG 25, implying active combat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kupyansk Axis: Previous reports indicated a decisive shift of RF main effort with the capture of Ivanivka. RF continues strikes on settlements. UA reports successful tank sorties and drone operations against RF personnel and equipment. Commander of "Achilles" Regiment Fedorenko (UA source) reports RF plans to occupy Kupyansk by August 24. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports the first mechanized attack by RF on the left bank of Kupyansk in a long time. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Kupyansk direction as of 18 AUG 25. STERNENKO (UA source) reports that 905 drones has been delivered to the Defense Forces in the last two days. Николаевский Ванёк reports a new "singing" RF prisoner was taken under Muravka, Donetsk Oblast, identified as Vladimir Sergeevich from the 35th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. TASS reports the head of Kharkiv VGA Ganchev claims Russian forces are encircling Kupyansk. Воин DV (RF source) video shows aerial footage of an ongoing military engagement impacting a rural or semi-rural landscape, with multiple explosions visible, confirming continued RF operations near Novosyolovka in the Kupyansk direction. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Holubivka, Kupyansk, Petropavlivka, Moskovka and Zahryzove. TASS (RF source) reports that military expert Andrey Marochko states RF forces have started battles near Sobolevka and are advancing towards Blagodatovka near Kupyansk. Сливочный каприз (RF source) posts tactical maps for Kupyansk - Zaoskolye as of 19 AUG 25, implying active combat or planned operations in this specific area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports RF forces have entered Sobolevka in Kharkiv Oblast, and some UA forces attempted to flee. This indicates RF continues offensive actions in the Kupyansk area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled two enemy attacks near Kupyansk and Zahryzove in the Kupyansk direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • WarGonzo (RF Source) provides a tactical map for the Kupyansk direction as of 19 AUG 25, indicating continuing RF offensive pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Sumy Oblast: РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian forces actively destroying the enemy in Sumy Oblast, pushing back Russians near Oleksiivka and Yunakivka. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of a destroyed UA M577 command post vehicle in Sumy Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing an RF truck with ammunition epically destroyed by a Ukrainian drone on the way to Sumy Oblast. TASS reports that RF forces have improved their tactical position near Yunakovka, Sumy Oblast. Операция Z (RF source) thermal imagery video claims successful destruction of UA armored vehicles by Spetsnaz "Anvar" and VDV units supporting an offensive on Sumy. РБК-Україна reports a 57-year-old woman injured by a KAB strike on Novoslobidska community, Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new UAVs on northern Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports a missile strike on Sumy. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted photo messages confirming a missile strike on an educational institution. НгП раZVедка (RF source) posts a mocking caption suggesting RF strikes or activity in Shostka. RF reconnaissance UAVs are operating near Putyvl. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Sumy. РБК-Україна reports a series of explosions. Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 new RF UAVs detected east of Bilopillya. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports continued RF attacks on Sumy. Colonelcassad shares video footage from the 68th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th Army, Western Military District. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs. UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs. TASS (RF source) claims that Ukrainian Armed Forces command in Sumy Oblast has committed all resources to outflank RF forces in Yunakivka. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video showing two individuals in a wooded area with abandoned cars and a quad bike, claiming it depicts RF forces marauding in border villages of Kursk Oblast. Kotsnews (RF source) posts video with caption "Syrsky: Kursk - best result among all major operations," which is an RF information operation. MoD Russia (RF source) video claiming a BM-21 Grad MLRS crew eliminated a manpower cluster. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts video of a Lancet loitering munition preparation and strike. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, with 7 repelled assaults. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University. РБК-Україна (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University. Alex Parker Returns (RF) claims the Sumy State University was hit by a "Flamingo missile." Два майора (RF source) posts video showing an RF FPV drone strike. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy strike UAV on northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. RF activity on the Sumy direction, with an aerial view of an exploding vehicle. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) asserts that RF forces have been defeated in Sumy Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a video of drone-guided artillery or air strikes. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) amplifies Syrsky's (misquoted) statements. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts a photo message showing activity on the Eastern Direction. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports a severe injury to an RF General in Kursk Oblast from a HIMARS strike. New Intel: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video from local residents showing a visual confirmation of RF "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on Sumy State University. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAV threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS (RF source) claims that military expert Yan Gagin states AFU unsuccessfully counterattack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) MoD Russia (RF source) video shows Uragan MLRS crews eliminating AFU armored vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) MoD Russia (RF source) video shows T-80BVM tanks of the Sever Group of Forces eliminating AFU hardware. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF has again attacked civilian infrastructure in Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast moving south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of enemy UAVs on the north, east, and south of Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) An explosion was heard in Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Sumy Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UA source) video indicates UA forces are expanding their buffer zone in the Sumy region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) video shows two individuals in a wooded area, likely RF personnel, but content is general and not highly specific to Sumy operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO (UA source) posts a photo message with incendiary content, implying attacks on Russian border regions, which is a PSYOP. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat from the northeast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts a photo message showing a battlefield map for the Sumy direction, indicating active counterattacks by VSU and the use of SU-27 fighter jets for strikes on RF positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Hirky of Sumy region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in central Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts photo messages claiming foreign mercenaries were destroyed in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Старше Эдды (RF source) posts photo messages claiming Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups (SRG) attempted an infiltration into Bryansk Oblast, resulting in 3 killed and 3 captured (including a Ukrainian SOF captain) by SOBR and FSB. This RF claim indicates continued UA deep strike/reconnaissance efforts into RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) and Операция Z (RF source) repost images and claims regarding the alleged Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast. This indicates a coordinated RF information operation regarding perceived Ukrainian incursions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad (RF source) also reposts the claim regarding the alleged Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast, confirming widespread RF dissemination of this information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad (RF source) video claims to show the destruction of a temporary deployment point (PVD) and an armored fighting vehicle (BBM) of the 116th Territorial Defense Brigade (TrO) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, using a "Forpost" UAV in Obody, Sumy Oblast. This indicates continued RF targeting of UA rear assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO (UA source) reports on PERUN Industries operating in Sumy Oblast, likely an arms or drone manufacturing facility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New intel: KAB launches by RF tactical aviation reported on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a photo message showing a tactical map for the Sumy direction. The caption suggests ongoing combat activity in the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO (UA source) reports drone safety zones in multiple RF oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports that law enforcement agencies claim that the occupation of part of Kursk Oblast by the Armed Forces of Ukraine was enabled by the embezzlement of funds during the construction of fortifications. This is a significant RF information operation, blaming corruption for military setbacks and indirectly acknowledging Ukrainian presence in Kursk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New groups of UAVs reported entering Sumy Oblast, heading towards Khotyn. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports a massive enemy strike on a private sector area in Okhtyrka community, Sumy Oblast, with no casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ASTRA (UA source) reports 12 people injured in Okhtyrka, Sumy Oblast, following an RF attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • РБК-Україна (UA source) reports a massive enemy drone strike on Okhtyrka, Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports that a heavy mechanized brigade of the AFU is being withdrawn from under Sumy due to losses. This is an RF information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports that special companies of the "Shkval" battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, recruited from prisoners with acute infectious diseases, have arrived in Sumy Oblast. This is a RF information operation intended to demoralize UA and create fear. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) map reports UA forces repelled nine enemy attacks near Hrabovske, Myropillya, Pokrovka, and Popivka in the Sumy direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • A UAV from Sumy Oblast is heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Север.Реалии (UA source) reports Russian forces attacked Okhtyrka in Sumy Oblast with drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ASTRA (UA source) reports 12 people injured in Sumy Oblast after a Russian attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video depicts two individuals in military uniform with a "trophy" red civilian car, which they claim to have "looted with the guys." This indicates a potential instance of RF forces engaging in looting, which can impact local civilian sentiment and highlight disciplinary issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports consequences of mass enemy UAV attacks on Sumy and Odesa regions, with photos confirming widespread damage to civilian infrastructure, including a burning building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Poltava Oblast: Poltava and its community without electricity after massive overnight attack. RF drones attacked a gas transportation system facility and Kremenchuk oil refinery, causing extensive fires and smoke plumes. Unexploded cluster munitions found in Kremenchuk. Supply of Russian oil through "Druzhba" pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia suspended due to UA UAV attacks (now reportedly resumed). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • A UAV from Poltava Oblast is heading towards Myrhorod. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Poltava OVA explains that a radiation alarm was mistakenly triggered instead of an air raid alarm. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by RF tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast, with a high-speed target moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast (likely a cruise missile). UA sources report 4 missiles from Kharkiv Oblast now over Poltava Oblast, heading towards Kremenchuk. Groups of enemy strike UAVs from northern Kharkiv Oblast are primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. This confirms Poltava and Kremenchuk remain significant targets for RF deep strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kyiv Oblast: Car explosion in Podilskyi district, Kyiv, claimed by RF as "Ukrainian partisans" blowing up a military vehicle. Enemy UAVs attacked Kyiv Oblast overnight, damaging a hangar in Boryspil district. Multiple air raid alerts due to MiG-31K takeoffs and ballistic missile threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kyiv Military Administration reports a minute of silence is held daily at 09:00 to honor fallen defenders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts photos showing construction of a dual-purpose shelter at school #186 for 1060 people, indicating continued efforts to protect civilians from attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Overall Frontline: RF continues employment of FPV drone swarms and Lancet loitering munitions, with a reported 20% increase in Lancet strikes. UA inflicted significant personnel losses (1010 RF personnel in the last 24h, total 276,300 since year start; 890 RF personnel liquidated in the last 24 hours). UA deep strikes into RF territory include the Syzran Oil Refinery (Samara Oblast), Olya seaport (Astrakhan Oblast), the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast, and a drone attack on Azot chemical plant in Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol Krai. 61 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed by UA. Prisoner exchange of 84 servicemen conducted. Tu-95MS strategic bombers are airborne, indicating potential for new missile launches. RF sources confirm Trump's phone call with Putin and the initiation of preparation for a tripartite meeting. Trump, European leaders, and Zelenskyy will hold another virtual meeting. Zelenskyy confirmed an arms deal with the US, proposing to purchase $90 billion in weapons. Zelenskyy stated he is ready for unconditional talks with Putin, leaving territorial questions to them. Security guarantees for Ukraine are planned to be formulated within 7-10 days. Macron discussed strengthening sanctions if Russia refuses to end the conflict and hopes for a trilateral meeting. NATO Secretary General Rutte stated there is an irreversible path for Ukraine into NATO, but membership is not currently discussed; arms supplies will continue through NATO countries. No discussion of Ukrainian territorial concessions at White House. Putin has spoken with nine foreign leaders in three days. Non-European countries will also participate in formulating security guarantees. ASTRA reports Ursula von der Leyen's statement on return of abducted Ukrainian children. TASS reports 23 UA UAVs shot down over RF and annexed Crimea overnight. RF MoD reports 23 UAVs shot down overnight. РФ reports 236/280 enemy targets shot down/suppressed by UA. RF intelligence claims a US M113 APC with RF and US flags is operating in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reports a large Starlink outage. Joint statement after Trump-Zelenskyy talks cancelled. Trump suggests Putin agreed to security guarantees for Ukraine and that territory exchange based on current front lines needs discussion. Trump believes RF will no longer attack Ukraine and expresses confidence in releasing over a thousand POWs soon. Macron proposes a four-way meeting. The "Druzhba" oil pipeline (Nikolske station) has resumed operations after UA drone strike. Putin reportedly proposed meeting Zelenskyy in Moscow during his call with Trump. Germany is working with partners on security guarantees for Ukraine. Politico reports US considering Hungary for a Putin-Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. TASS reports RF forces shot down 42 Ukrainian UAVs overnight over Russian regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Vologograd Airport restrictions lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Tambov Airport temporarily restricted for flights. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Nizhny Novgorod Airport temporarily restricted for flights. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS reports restrictions at Nizhny Novgorod airport have been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Voronezh Oblast reports at least 7 UAVs shot down/suppressed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF MoD reports 42 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight. This is corroborated by Russian telegram channels like Дневник Десантника🇷🇺. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Операция Z (RF source) reports Trump stated that a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy is "in the process of preparation." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) reports total combat losses of RF personnel for the last 24 hours are 1190. Total since Feb 24, 2022: 277,490. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) provides the full breakdown of RF combat losses: 1190 personnel, 2 tanks, 13 armored personnel vehicles, 24 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 2 air defense systems, 1 aircraft, 1 helicopter, 10 UAVs, 1 cruise missile, 23 vehicles and fuel tankers, and 3 units of special equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ASTRA (UA source) posts photos and video of a fire suppression operation in Odesa Oblast, related to the attack on fuel and energy infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Операція Z (RF source) states that a military journalist reports an attempted terrorist attack in Izhevsk by a Central Asian native. This is an internal RF security matter, not directly related to military operations in Ukraine. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video showing an FSB operation in Izhevsk, detaining a Central Asian native suspected of preparing a terrorist attack. This is an internal RF security matter. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • Bloomberg reports Europe expects the US to continue providing intelligence and equipment to Ukraine through European partners. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Fighterbomber (RF source) posts a video of two military helicopters, likely Mi-24 or Mi-35, flying low over a rural, cultivated field. This indicates RF air reconnaissance or patrol mission. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Rybar (RF source) reports a "Forpost" UAV destroyed a Ukrainian landing craft. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • STERNENKO (UA source) launches a fundraising campaign for "TOTAL RUSORIZ" (total Russian annihilation) with a goal of 100,000,000 UAH. This indicates continued UA fundraising efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO further reports that the campaign has reached 2 million UAH. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO further reports that the campaign has reached 3 million UAH. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO (UA source) reports that the fundraising campaign has now reached 5 million UAH. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • WarGonzo (RF source) reports that the "Birds of Madyar" UAV battalion is actively operating on the Dobropillya direction on 7.2 GHz frequencies. This is an RF intelligence report of a UA unit's operational frequency. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UA source) posts photos demonstrating military training as a "guarantee of confidence in battle." This indicates continued UA training and morale building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ГУР (UA source) reports Russia is using a new UAV with LTE communication and remote control capabilities, indicating enemy technological adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts photos of morning coffee in Kyiv, a morale-boosting message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Bloomberg reports "about 10 countries are ready to send troops to Ukraine as part of security guarantees." This indicates evolving discussions on security guarantees that may include troop commitments, significantly changing the dynamics of international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Macron has again stated that one of Ukraine's security guarantees should be the presence of "deterrence forces" from European militaries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade posts a photo with the caption "The enemy doesn't see you yet. But he should already be afraid." This is a morale-boosting message, likely part of a public relations campaign. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • The White House reportedly seeks to hold a Zelenskyy-Putin summit in Budapest, according to Politico. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Операция Z (RF source) confirms that Budapest is being considered as a summit location for Putin, Trump, and Zelenskyy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Russian sources (Операция Z) are leveraging a quote from Scott Bessent, former U.S. Treasury Secretary, discussing a "10% markup" on US arms sales to Europe and Ukraine. This is an RF information operation aimed at discrediting Western aid and portraying it as financially opportunistic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) acknowledges and provides context to the RF information operation regarding Scott Bessent's statements on arms sales markup. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Colonelcassad video shows a man speaking about self-organization and acting like "partisan cells," emphasizing independent action. This could be interpreted as a call for decentralized resistance or support for RF operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RBC-Ukraine reports that the National Guard of Ukraine's "Rubizh" brigade is collecting funds for the restoration of destroyed property and equipment. This indicates direct resource needs for UA units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • РБК-Україна (UA source) reports that RF launched 93 drones and attacked with two Iskander-M ballistic missiles across Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports that one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 62 UAVs were shot down overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ASTRA (UA source) reports that RF attacked Ukraine overnight with 93 drones and 2 Iskander-M missiles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) confirms one ballistic missile and 62 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ТАСС reports that the Investigative Committee has completed the investigation into former Deputy Minister of Defense of RF, Pavel Popov. This indicates internal RF legal proceedings potentially related to corruption or mismanagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ТАСС reports that the US National Intelligence has stripped 37 former and current US intelligence officers of access to secret data. This is an internal US security matter. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts a photo message that appears to be a fundraising appeal, featuring sports memorabilia. This indicates continued UA fundraising efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Два майора (RF source) reports on a Russian citizen attempting to illegally cross the administrative border into Crimea via a checkpoint. This highlights RF's ongoing border security efforts for annexed territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Rybar (RF source) posts a photo message titled "Drone-spotters," depicting an RF military operative preparing a drone for flight, emphasizing the role of UAVs in directing aviation and artillery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kotsnews (RF source) discusses "Indian US policy and Macron's mood," implying diplomatic discussions. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts a lengthy political commentary on Zelenskyy's supposed focus on PR over military victories, implying that Ukraine is preparing to concede territory due to Western influence. This is a RF information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Новости Москвы (RF source) reports that Hong Kong and swine flu will be present in Russia this year. This is a public health warning for RF domestic population. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • ТАСС reports on Trump's directive to paint the Mexico border wall black, an internal US political matter. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • Воин DV (RF source) provides "fresh news" on peace negotiations, implying ongoing diplomatic processes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Север.Реалии (UA source) reports that the "Higher School of Economics" will study how Russian students relate to "traditional values." This is an internal RF social study. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) discusses the first results of requirements for Russian language knowledge and legal residency for foreigners, implying internal migration/mobilization efforts within RF. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) states that European defense assets are falling amidst reports of a ceasefire in Ukraine, citing The Financial Times. This indicates a perceived economic impact of peace talks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Военкор Котенок (RF source) reports that 42 enemy aircraft-type drones were destroyed by RF air defense overnight, corroborating previous reports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: ТАСС (RF source) reports on a new Russian bill for free two-time meals for schoolchildren, indicating a domestic social policy focus not directly related to military operations. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: ТАСС (RF source) reports on discussions within the RF government regarding requiring telecom operators and internet providers to notify law enforcement of digital crimes. This indicates internal RF legal and security developments. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Politico (RF source) reports that Macron and Starmer are unlikely to send troops to Ukraine due to their own political weakness. This is an RF information operation aimed at influencing public perception of Western support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Операция Z (RF source) reports a German SDPG deputy statement claiming Germany cannot send troops to Ukraine due to troop shortages. This is an RF information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Europe believes Trump's peace talks will fail but supports them to reveal the Kremlin's true intentions. This reflects a nuanced international stance on ongoing diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: STERNENKO reports a fundraising campaign has reached 12 million UAH, indicating continued public support for UA military efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Новости Москвы photo message and text indicate a "logistical collapse" at Ozon (Russian e-commerce company). This highlights potential internal economic and logistical strain within RF that could indirectly impact military sustainment if widespread. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Два майора video shows testing of "Skif" body armor in saltwater and against small arms/grenade impacts, concluding its reliability. This demonstrates RF efforts to improve soldier protection, potentially for operations in varied environments, including amphibious. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows Ukrainian military personnel observing a Russian documentary about the assault on Mariupol, potentially for intelligence gathering or propaganda purposes. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • New Intel: Басурин о главном photo message and text indicate that the world's largest magazine paper producer is reducing capacity. This is an economic observation, not directly militarily relevant. (LOW CONFIDENCE)

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:

  • Glide Bombs: RF continues to demonstrate a strong capability for sustained, high-volume employment of FAB-500/KAB series glide bombs, particularly on the Chasiv Yar axis, to suppress and destroy UA defensive positions. This is a critical enabler for their ground assaults. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Combined Arms (Limited): RF utilizes small, well-equipped assault groups (8-10 personnel) immediately following aerial/artillery preparation, indicating a tactical adaptation for breaching forward lines. They employ a combination of drones for ISR and FPV strikes, and TOS-1A thermobaric systems for clearing strongpoints. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Electronic Warfare (EW): Demonstrated advanced EW capabilities, with confirmed deployment of Shipovnik-Aero and Pole-21 systems along the northern border. These systems are aimed at degrading UA ISR (UAVs) and C2 (Command and Control). Kotsnews video confirms RF EW unit operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Drone Warfare: Continued widespread use of FPV drones for reconnaissance, direct strikes (personnel, vehicles), and target spotting for artillery. RF is actively adapting to UA drone tactics and seeking to counter them. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Missile and UAV Strikes (Deep): RF maintains capability for mass Shahed drone attacks and ballistic missile strikes on critical infrastructure (fuel depots, transport facilities) and civilian areas far from the front lines. The overnight attack involving 93 drones and 2 Iskander-M missiles confirms this ongoing capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Artillery: Continues to use MLRS (Grad, Uragan) and tube artillery for suppressive fire and destruction of UA strongholds and equipment, as supported by MoD Russia video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Intentions:

  • Chasiv Yar Capture: RF's primary intention remains the capture of Chasiv Yar to secure a strategic high ground and facilitate further offensive operations towards Konstantinovka and Kramatorsk. Their sustained pressure and tactical adaptations indicate a high commitment to this objective. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Pokrovsk-Dobropillya Offensive: RF intends to continue offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction to gain control of key GLOCs and strategic settlements, with the ultimate goal of seizing Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Northern Border Shaping Operations: The increased DRG and EW activity in Sumy/Chernihiv Oblasts indicates an intention to fix UA forces, test defenses, and degrade ISR capabilities, potentially as a shaping operation for a future, larger offensive, or simply to create a buffer zone. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
  • Degrade UA Logistics and Infrastructure: RF consistently targets fuel and energy infrastructure (e.g., Izmail, Odesa, Poltava) to disrupt UA logistics and economic stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Demoralize Ukrainian Population: Persistent missile and drone strikes on civilian areas (Kharkiv, Sumy, Sloviansk) are intended to erode public morale and increase pressure on the Ukrainian government. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Courses of Action (Enemy MLCOA):

  • Consolidate and Expand in Chasiv Yar: RF will prioritize consolidating their foothold in the Kanal microdistrict and launch subsequent assaults to secure the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal line. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Continued Pressure on Pokrovsk Axis: RF will sustain and potentially intensify ground assaults supported by heavy artillery and airpower along the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya axis, focusing on breaking through towards key logistical hubs like Konstantinovka and Krasnoarmeysk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Increased EW and Reconnaissance in North: RF will continue to employ advanced EW systems and conduct probing attacks/DRG activities along the Sumy/Chernihiv border, aiming to identify weaknesses and degrade UA ISR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Targeted Deep Strikes: Expect continued missile and drone strikes against critical infrastructure, military facilities, and population centers across Ukraine, particularly focusing on logistics nodes and energy targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Increased Glide Bomb Reliance: RF has shifted from intermittent to sustained and high-volume use of FAB-500/KAB glide bombs, especially around Chasiv Yar. This is a significant adaptation to overcome UA fortifications and minimize RF ground force casualties in initial assaults. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• EW System Deployment: The confirmed deployment of Shipovnik-Aero and Pole-21 EW systems to the northern border marks a tactical shift, indicating a concerted effort to counter UA's drone advantage and potentially prepare the electronic battlespace for future operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Small Assault Group Tactics: RF is employing small (8-10 personnel) assault groups following heavy preparation, suggesting an adaptation to breach entrenched positions more effectively than larger, more vulnerable mechanized formations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Targeting UA C2 and Logistics: RF is demonstrating precision targeting of UA UAV control points (e.g., near Dymytrov/Myrnohrad, Antonivka) and logistics nodes (e.g., Izmail fuel depots, Nova Poshta terminals), indicating an adaptive strategy to disrupt UA operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Fuel: RF continues to suffer successful UA deep strikes on fuel infrastructure (Syzran Oil Refinery, Olya seaport, Izmail fuel depots), which likely impacts their overall fuel supply, though not yet critically limiting frontline operations. The resumption of "Druzhba" pipeline suggests some resilience. RF claims that the Triton oil depot in Izmail was destroyed by 30-40 drones, which would significantly impact UA fuel. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• Ammunition: No explicit reports of RF ammunition shortages. Their ability to sustain heavy artillery and missile barrages indicates a sufficient supply chain. MoD Russia video claims destruction of AFU ammunition depots. UA claims of destroying RF ammunition depots are localized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Equipment: RF continues to employ armored vehicles (tanks, IFVs, APCs) in assaults, but videos show losses. Their continued offensive capability suggests they maintain sufficient equipment, likely augmented by production and refurbishment. The testing of "Skif" body armor indicates efforts to improve soldier protection. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Personnel: RF is sustaining significant personnel losses (1190 in the last 24 hours, over 277,000 total), which will eventually impact their long-term offensive sustainability. Their reported use of "Shkval" battalion (prisoners with infectious diseases) indicates a concerning approach to manpower. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• Integrated Fire Support: RF demonstrates effective coordination between aerial bombardment, artillery, and ground assaults, particularly in Chasiv Yar, indicating functional C2 at the operational and tactical level. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAV Integration: RF's continued integration of FPV drones for reconnaissance and strike support, including reports of "drone-spotters" for aviation and artillery, suggests an evolving and effective C2 over their UAV assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• EW Countermeasures: The deployment of advanced EW systems indicates a structured and centrally directed effort to counter UA's ISR, implying strong C2 in the electronic domain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Overall Cohesion: Despite reported internal issues (e.g., alleged corruption in Kursk fortifications, Ozon logistical collapse), RF C2 appears generally effective in maintaining offensive momentum in key sectors. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Defensive Resilience: UA forces are demonstrating strong defensive resilience, particularly in repelling multiple RF attacks across various axes (Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Lyman, Sumy, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia). UA units are executing tactical withdrawals to prepared positions, indicating disciplined and organized defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Counter-Offensive Capability (Localized): UA is conducting localized counter-offensive operations, such as the 93rd Brigade clearing Hruzke and Vesele (Dobropillya area), and the "SKALA" Regiment's successful operation on the Dnipropetropavsk-Donetsk border. This indicates continued offensive capability at tactical levels. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAV Effectiveness: UA's FPV drone operators (e.g., "Predators of the Heights," "Hartsuz," "Birds of Madyar," "STRIX," "B.G" unit) continue to inflict significant damage on RF personnel, vehicles, and equipment, including successful destruction of a camouflaged tank by 60th OMBR. This highlights UA's continued reliance on and proficiency with drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Counter-DRG Operations: Successful counter-DRG operations near Pokrovsk demonstrate UA's vigilance and effectiveness in denying RF infiltration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Air Defense: UA air defense forces are actively engaged, shooting down a significant number of RF UAVs (62 reported overnight) and one ballistic missile, demonstrating ongoing capability, though some missiles and drones are penetrating. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Training and Morale: Continued military training (e.g., DSHV, ОТУ "Харків") and morale-boosting messages (e.g., 46th Airmobile Brigade, photos of morning coffee in Kyiv) indicate efforts to maintain force readiness and spirit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Logistic Resilience: Despite RF deep strikes, UA continues to resupply forces and manage logistics, as evidenced by the "Da Vinci" regiment's vehicle acquisitions and the Navy destroying Shaheds targeting supply routes. However, attacks on fuel infrastructure (Izmail) will strain resources. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• Civilian Defense Measures: Construction of dual-purpose shelters in Kyiv (school #186) indicates a proactive approach to protecting the civilian population. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:

  • Donetsk Oblast:
    • UA 93rd Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" cleared Hruzke and Vesele (Dobropillya area), capturing an RF prisoner. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UA 1st Azov Corps (ZSOU and NGU) cleared Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Azov Brigade successfully repelled attacks and prevented consolidation in Katerynivka, Toretsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • "SKALA" Regiment conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetropavsk and Donetsk Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • "Phoenix UAS" tactical group cutting Russian logistics in Konstantinovka direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Successful UA drone strikes on RF vehicles, ammunition, and positions in Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and South-Donetsk directions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Luhansk Oblast: 63rd Brigade utilized FPV drones to neutralize an RF tank east of Lyman. 63rd Mechanized Brigade destroying RF assault groups in Lyman direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Sumy Oblast: UA forces actively destroying enemy and pushing back Russians near Oleksiivka and Yunakivka. UA forces are expanding their buffer zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kherson Oblast: Destruction of an RF ammunition depot and four vehicles on the left bank. FPV operators of the "B.G" unit (Crimean SBU directorate) striking RF personnel on Kinburn Spit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Air Defense: Shot down one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 62 UAVs overnight across Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Intelligence: SBU uncovered an RF military intelligence agent group coordinating shelling of Kyiv and sabotage in Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Setbacks:

  • Chasiv Yar: Tactical withdrawal in eastern Kanal microdistrict and confirmed RF foothold. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: Significant civilian casualties (7 fatalities, 23 injured) and damage to residential buildings from RF drone and KAB strikes. Continued RF EW emissions degrading UA ISR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Sumy Oblast: 12 injured in Okhtyrka following RF attack. Civilian infrastructure repeatedly attacked. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Poltava Oblast: Power outages in Poltava and community after overnight attacks on energy and gas transportation infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Odesa Oblast: Major fires at fuel and energy infrastructure (SOCAR oil depot, Triton oil depot in Izmail) due to Shahed attacks, causing disruption and one injury. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Dnipro/Pavlohrad: Ballistic missile strike on outskirts of Dnipro and drone attack on transport enterprise in Pavlohrad. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 65-year-old woman wounded in Polohivskyi district. Continued RF strikes (583 in last 24h). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: Missile hit an ancient Jewish cemetery, indicating continued targeting of civilian and cultural sites. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Issues: Reports of corruption within the State Emergency Service in Vinnytsia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Air Defense: Continued high demand for air defense systems, particularly mobile units to counter glide bombs in Chasiv Yar and to protect critical infrastructure against mass drone/missile attacks. The overnight interception rate (62/93 UAVs, 1/2 ballistic missiles) indicates AD effectiveness, but the sheer volume of attacks necessitates more interceptors and platforms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Counter-EW Capabilities: Urgent need for specialized counter-EW teams and assets, especially in the northern axis, to counter newly deployed Russian systems and preserve UA ISR capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Reconnaissance Assets: Sustained need for UAVs, particularly those resilient to EW, to maintain ISR coverage of RF troop movements, artillery positions, and logistical nodes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Ammunition: While not explicitly constrained, the high intensity of fighting across multiple fronts implies a continuous and substantial demand for artillery and other munitions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Humanitarian Aid: Ongoing and increasing need for medical supplies, shelter, and basic necessities for civilians affected by RF strikes, particularly in Kharkiv, Sumy, and the Donetsk region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Reconstruction: Significant resources required for restoration of damaged energy, transport, and residential infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Funding for Equipment: UA units are actively fundraising for equipment (e.g., "Da Vinci" regiment for vehicles, STERNENKO's "TOTAL RUSORIZ" campaign, Rubizh brigade), indicating continued reliance on external and public support for resources. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Narratives:

  • "Blame Ukraine" (False Flag): TASS reports Kyiv preparing strikes on Kramatorsk, blaming Russia. This is a common RF tactic to preemptively discredit genuine UA operations or attribute civilian harm to UA forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • "Moral Degeneracy/Incompetence" (Demoralization): TASS reports on the "Shkval" battalion (prisoners with infectious diseases) to demoralize UA forces and create fear among the civilian population. Also, the claim of UA heavy mechanized brigade withdrawal due to losses under Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • "Western Exploitation": RF sources leveraging Scott Bessent's "10% markup" quote to portray Western aid as financially opportunistic and exploit divisions within allied support. UA sources are actively countering this narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • "Weakening Western Support": Politico reports that Macron and Starmer are unlikely to send troops to Ukraine due to political weakness, amplified by RF sources, aimed at sowing doubt about the steadfastness of Western allies. German SDPG deputy statement on troop shortages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • "Ukrainian Incursions into RF": RF claims of successful neutralization of UA DRGs in Bryansk Oblast and attribution of Kursk occupation to UA corruption are hybrid operations designed to justify RF actions, blame UA for domestic issues, and potentially deflect from RF military failures. RF also pushing the F-16 strike on Tetkino narrative, though unconfirmed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • "Zelenskyy PR Focus": RF military journalists are portraying Zelenskyy as prioritizing PR over military victories to undermine his leadership and suggest Ukraine is preparing to concede territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • "Territorial Gains/Liberation": Consistent RF claims of "liberating" settlements (Iskra, Kolodezi, Voronoye, Aleksandrograd) and advancing on key axes (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, Kupyansk) are aimed at demonstrating progress and maintaining domestic support. These often contradict UA reports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • "Russian Humanitarian Aid": Basurin's report on drought relief for DNR farmers is likely a propaganda effort to portray RF as a benevolent force in occupied territories. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • "Domestic Focus/Normalization": News about Ozon logistics, plush Cheburashka demand, and new patriotic reading lists indicates an attempt to project normalcy and divert attention from military realities. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

• UA Narratives:

  • "Successful Defense/Counter-Offensive": UA General Staff reports on repelled attacks and localized territorial gains (e.g., clearing Hruzke, Vesele, Zolotyi Kolodyaz) are crucial for maintaining national morale and demonstrating military effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • "Enemy Losses": Consistent reporting of significant RF personnel and equipment losses (e.g., 1190 RF personnel liquidated in 24h) aims to demonstrate attrition and encourage public support for the war effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • "RF War Crimes/Civilian Targeting": Reports of civilian casualties, attacks on residential buildings (Kharkiv, Sumy), and cultural sites (Jewish cemetery) are used to highlight RF brutality and galvanize international support, supported by photos from the General Prosecutor's Office. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • "Resilience and Unity": Messages about community cooperation (Zaporizhzhia OVA video), fundraising efforts (STERNENKO's campaign, Rubizh brigade), military training (DSHV), and civilian shelter construction (Kyiv KMVA) aim to foster national unity and demonstrate continued resistance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukraine:

  • Resilience and Determination: Public sentiment remains largely resilient, especially in response to attacks on civilian areas (Kharkiv, Sumy, Odesa). Localized community support initiatives and ongoing military training efforts contribute to morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Fatigue from Attacks: Repeated large-scale drone and missile attacks, particularly those causing significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, are likely to cause localized fatigue and psychological stress. Mandatory evacuations (Druzhkivka) and closures of services (Konstantinovka) indicate increasing pressure on civilian life. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Corruption Concerns: Reports of internal corruption (Vinnytsia SES) can erode public trust and morale if not addressed transparently. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Recruitment Challenges: The conflict between TCC and civilians in Volyn Oblast, even if isolated, highlights potential tensions and challenges in mobilization efforts. (LOW CONFIDENCE)

• Russia:

  • Domestic Focus: RF authorities are increasingly focusing on domestic issues (free school meals, digital crime alerts, public health warnings on flu, Ozon logistics issues) which could be an attempt to divert public attention from military setbacks or to project an image of normalcy. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • Blame Game: The RF narrative blaming corruption for losses in Kursk Oblast suggests internal pressure and a need to manage public discontent regarding military effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Propaganda Consumption: The widespread dissemination of information operations (Trump's statements, Western aid "markup," German troop shortages) indicates an attempt to shape public opinion and maintain support for the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Ongoing Diplomacy for Peace/Security Guarantees:

  • Continued discussions about a potential Trump-Putin-Zelenskyy summit (Budapest suggested) indicate a persistent international effort towards de-escalation or a negotiated settlement. Europe's nuanced support aims to reveal Kremlin intentions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Discussions on security guarantees for Ukraine involving multiple countries, including the possibility of "deterrence forces" from European militaries, suggest a shift in the nature of international security commitments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Germany actively working with partners on security guarantees, with conditions for troop deployment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NATO Secretary General Rutte reiterates Ukraine's "irreversible path" to NATO, but current focus on arms supplies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Sweden's military delegation visit indicates continued bilateral cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Continued Military Aid to Ukraine:

  • Zelenskyy confirmed a $90 billion arms deal with the US, indicating continued, significant military support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Bloomberg reports European expectation of continued US intelligence and equipment provision through European partners, confirming the multinational nature of military aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UK's stated readiness to send troops to protect Ukrainian skies and ports signifies a potentially stronger commitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• International Concerns/Developments:

  • Ursula von der Leyen's statement on returning abducted Ukrainian children highlights an ongoing humanitarian and legal concern on the international stage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Israel's plan to capture Gaza ("Gideon's Chariots - 2") is a new significant international conflict that could divert global attention and resources away from Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal US security matters (stripping intelligence officers of access) and RF internal political/legal matters (Popov investigation, migration requirements, FSB arrests in Bryansk) are not directly impactful on the conflict but can be distracting or indicative of domestic pressures. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • WarGonzo and Alex Parker Returns' historical/geographical remarks (Dugina, Crimea/Texas, Azerbaijan/Albania) are likely information operations aimed at framing broader geopolitical narratives for internal and external consumption. (LOW CONFIDENCE)

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• MLCOA 1: Chasiv Yar Capture with Phased Assaults (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  • Action: RF will continue to leverage heavy glide bomb and artillery strikes against Ukrainian defensive positions in Chasiv Yar, particularly west of the Kanal micro-district, followed by battalion-sized mechanized assaults using small, agile infantry groups to breach remaining strongpoints. The objective is to establish full control over Chasiv Yar and secure the line of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal.
  • Indicators: Sustained KAB launches on Chasiv Yar, continued reports of intense ground fighting and RF attempts to consolidate within the Kanal micro-district, tactical maps showing RF advances.
  • Timeline: Next 72 hours.

• MLCOA 2: Sustained Offensive on Pokrovsk Axis (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  • Action: RF will maintain high-intensity offensive pressure along the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya axis, with continued attempts to advance towards Sokil from Ocheretyne and breakthrough into settlements like Rodynske. They will aim to seize critical logistical hubs and threaten key GLOCs leading to Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and Konstantinovka.
  • Indicators: Consistent RF reporting of "intense fighting" and "breakthroughs," continued large-scale use of artillery and TOS-1A systems, RF tactical maps highlighting advances in this sector.
  • Timeline: Next 72-96 hours.

• MLCOA 3: Hybrid Operations and ISR Degradation in Northern Oblasts (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  • Action: RF will continue and potentially intensify cross-border probing attacks by DRGs in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts to fix UA forces and identify vulnerabilities. This will be complemented by aggressive employment of newly identified EW systems (Shipovnik-Aero, Pole-21) to severely degrade UA ISR (especially UAVs) and C2 capabilities in the border regions.
  • Indicators: Increased detection of RF reconnaissance UAVs, successful interception/jamming of UA drones, continued reports of DRG engagements, and KAB launches targeting border settlements.
  • Timeline: Next 24-72 hours.

• MLCOA 4: Persistent Deep Strike Campaign (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  • Action: RF will continue mass Shahed drone and ballistic missile strikes against critical Ukrainian infrastructure (energy, fuel, transport) and civilian population centers nationwide, particularly Odesa, Poltava, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with the aim of disrupting logistics, eroding morale, and causing economic damage.
  • Indicators: Ongoing air alerts, new reports of fires and explosions at industrial sites, confirmed civilian casualties from missile/drone strikes.
  • Timeline: Ongoing, daily.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• MDCOA 1: Major Breakthrough on Pokrovsk Axis (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
  • Action: Should UA defenses on the Pokrovsk axis weaken significantly, RF could commit additional forces, including second-echelon reserves, to achieve a rapid, deep breakthrough towards Krasnoarme