Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 200451Z AUG 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske Axis): RF forces (elements of 98th VDV Division) maintain a confirmed foothold in the eastern Kanal microdistrict of Chasiv Yar, continuing battalion-sized mechanized assaults. UA units executed tactical withdrawal to prepared defensive positions west of the initial line of contact. Clashes persist near Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, Oleksandra-Kalynove, and Pleschiyivka. UA 93rd Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" successfully cleared and took control of Hruzke and Vesele near Dobropillya, capturing an RF prisoner, indicating localized UA counter-offensive success and stabilization in the Dobropillya area. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and towards Bondarne in the Kramatorsk direction, as well as Bila Hora and Chasiv Yar. Rybar (RF source) animated maps indicate Russian advances around Chasov Yar and Katerinovka, with pushes towards Konstantinovka and along the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal, suggesting continued RF focus on consolidating and expanding territorial gains. OSUV "Dnipro" states Russians have occupied two settlements in Donetsk Oblast (unnamed). RF MoD reports Russian artillery destroyed a mortar and a UA UAV control point, likely in Donetsk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) and Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) videos show Azov Brigade successfully repelling a powerful enemy attack and preventing consolidation in Katerynivka, Toretsk direction. This contradicts previous RF claims of gains and indicates effective UA defensive action. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts new video showing drones "clearing strongholds" and covering "our assault teams" in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. RF sources (RBC-Ukraine) report explosions in occupied Donetsk, with complaints of unknown drone attacks. ASTRA (UA source) reports explosions and a subsequent fire in Donetsk, citing local residents. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue in Donetsk Oblast. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) has posted multiple photo messages that appear to be maps or operational summaries of activity in the Siversk direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts new video showing 93rd Mechanized Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" conducting clearance operations of the village of Vesele in the Dobropillya area, supported by tanks and multiple ground robotic systems equipped with machine guns. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video footage of the 85th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (OMCBR) operating on the Soledar direction, showing drone footage of a wooded area with debris and smoke from impacts, and a destroyed trench system. Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) claims RF 36th OA forces (37th OMCBR, 336th Marine Brigade) are likely to force UA to abandon Maliyivka and are advancing from Shevchenko to Yanvarske, though with limited success. STERNENKO (UA source) posts new video showing the destruction of an enemy vehicle with ammunition in the Pokrovsk direction by "Predators of the Heights" tactical group. The video shows an aerial perspective of a vehicle targeted by a drone, resulting in explosions and a significant fire ("fire show"), confirming successful UA drone strike. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UA source) posts a photo message claiming "successfully demobilized" RF personnel. Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) posts video claiming destruction of a UA 2S1 Self-Propelled Howitzer near Konstantinovka. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Predtechyne, Oleksandro-Shultyne and Bila Hora in Kramatorsk direction. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) photo message indicates UA forces are having success in several directions in Donetsk Oblast, specifically listing Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz cleared by elements of the 1st Azov Corps. This directly contradicts prior RF claims of gains and indicates UA regaining territory. ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA (RF source) posts a strategic overview map of the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya direction. Воин DV (RF source) video shows drone footage of engagements on the South-Donetsk direction by the 57th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, depicting successful strikes on RF positions, equipment, and personnel. A photo message from "Сливочный каприз" (RF source) indicates current RF claimed positions between Dobropillya and Zolotyi Kolodyaz. Colonelcassad (RF source) has provided a photo message with no caption. TASS reports that RF forces struck UA units with FAB bombs in Myrnohrad and Ivanpillia, DNR. MoD Russia video shows aerial footage of an urban area, with multiple large explosions and plumes of smoke, indicating ongoing shelling or airstrikes in Donetsk People's Republic. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows a drone strike on a Russian motorcyclist in the Kurakhove direction. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims the assault on Konstantinovka has begun. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UA source) video, captured from a thermal imaging perspective, shows what appears to be a ground vehicle or personnel moving across an open field, with an explosion occurring in the vicinity of the target. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetropavsk and Donetsk Oblasts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video shows the 425th Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropropetropavsk and Donetsk Oblasts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video showing captured Russian soldiers providing testimony confirms UA success. An Iskander-M missile strike has been reported in Sloviansk. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a photo message claiming RF forces are advancing on the Konstantinovka direction. Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) posts a video showing a BM-21 Grad MLRS firing and subsequent aerial footage of strikes on damaged buildings, claiming it is the 238th Artillery Brigade supporting the offensive. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts photo message and a map of the Druzhkivka/Konstantinovka directions. Підрозділ Shadow (UA source) video shows drone strike on RF positions, including thermal imaging confirmation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) photo message from "Mad'yar" claims Ukraine has completely destroyed the "Druzhba" oil pipeline. DeepState (UA Source) reports map has been updated. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts photo messages of the Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports a KAB-250 strike with UMPK on AFU infrastructure near Rayskoe. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows an aerial view of a damaged building, likely in a conflict zone, with an explosion targeting the structure. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video provides an aerial view of a damaged train station building and surrounding railway infrastructure in Pokrovsk. The building shows significant signs of destruction, indicating it has been subjected to heavy shelling or bombing. The damage implies potential disruption to transportation and logistics. Colonelcassad (RF source) posted two videos of combat operations in Donbas, featuring drone footage of military targets and engagements, including armored vehicles (BTR, BBM), a communications antenna, and a dugout. This confirms ongoing high-intensity combat with diverse aerial assets employed. Colonelcassad has released new video showing "Adsky Krik" drone operators from the 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment, 5th Army, "Vostok" Group of Forces, destroying enemy armored vehicles, manpower, and drones in the South-Donetsk direction. TASS reports that Southern Grouping fighters destroyed a platoon of "Kholodnyi Yar" militants. Latest RF reporting indicates renewed strikes on Sloviansk. РБК-Україна (UA source) video shows the aftermath of an RF Iskander-M missile strike on Sloviansk, with significant damage to civilian buildings, impacting public morale and requiring immediate humanitarian response. TASS reports a robotic platform of the AFU was destroyed near Konstantinovka, DNR. МоD Russia (RF source) video shows a T-80BVM tank crew from the 'Tsentr' Group eliminating a UA stronghold in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) posts a video claiming "Annihilation of a UAV control point of the AFU in Dimitrov" (likely Dymytriv/Myrnohrad), showing drone footage of a dilapidated building complex. Операция Z (RF source) video shows combat footage from a first-person perspective, likely from a drone or vehicle-mounted camera, showing strikes on an "enemy BMP" and "enemy cover/shelter" near Pokrovsk. TASS (RF source) video shows artillery of the Southern Grouping destroying UA firing positions in Donetsk. Басурин о главном (RF source) video shows drone strike on RF positions. KABs are currently launched towards Donetsk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video shows an FPV drone strike by the 'Hartsuz' group of the 49th Separate Assault Battalion 'Carpathian Sich' on an RF soldier in a damaged house in the Toretsk direction. MoD Russia (RF source) video claims "Vostok" Group of Forces liberated Aleksandrograd in DNR. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports RF MoD's summary of the SVO for 19 AUG 25. Colonelcassad (RF source) video shows FPV-drone operators from the 80th separate reconnaissance battalion "Sparta," 51st Guards Combined Arms Army, detecting and striking a UA UAV control point near Dymytrov (Myrnohrad). This confirms RF's continued targeting of UA C2 and reconnaissance assets. TASS (RF source) video reports on Southern Group forces destroying a robotic platform ferrying ammunition to AFU, indicating RF continues to target UA logistics and automated systems. Воин DV (RF source) video shows a compilation of successful fire strikes against the 3rd Assault Brigade "Azov" of the AFU in the Pokrovsk direction by "Center" Group forces. This video shows drone footage of military operations, including an armored personnel carrier or troop transport moving along a dirt road, engaging targets, with visible explosions and smoke, as well as images of what appear to be mass graves or discarded equipment. This RF claim of significant BDA and success against a key UA assault brigade requires verification but indicates continued offensive pressure and a focus on eliminating high-value UA units. ASTRA (UA source) video shows a military Kamaz truck burning in occupied Donetsk. Cause is unknown. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF claims destruction of a UA M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzer near Myrnohrad by FPV drones from "Rubicon" Center. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovskoe Direction): RF claims a "big breakthrough" and liberation of Iskra in DNR. RF forces have reportedly broken through into Zolotyi Kolodyaz, with ongoing fighting, and advanced up to 1.5km towards Sokil from Ocheretyne, threatening a key Ukrainian GLOC. UA sources report stabilization and successful destruction of enemy elements, and Ukrainian paratroopers clearing Pokrovsk of Russian DRGs. UA forces repelled enemy near Rubizhne, Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Vesele, Vilne, Shakhove, Nykanorivka, and Sukhetske. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Poltavka, Volodymyrivka, Fedorivka, Novoekonomichne, Rodynske, Sukhetske, Promin, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Udachne, Dachne, Novoukrayinka, Lysivka, Nykanorivka and towards Filiya in the Pokrovsk direction. Main Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reports successful UA advances for the second consecutive day in Dobropillya and Pokrovsk directions, despite challenges. RF sources are consistently reporting heavy fighting and "destruction" of UA equipment/personal near Pokrovsk. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts photos and video confirming successful UA counter-DRG operations near Pokrovsk. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video of the 425th Regiment "SKALA" showing captured Russian soldiers providing testimony on their unit movements and lack of support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports an attempted assault on Pokrovsk by RF forces utilizing motorcycles. TASS reports that an officer of the press center of the RF 'Vostok' grouping, Aleksei Yakovlev, stated their units have advanced into enemy defenses in Ivankiv, Poltavka, and Zeleny Gay. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted multiple photo messages summarizing the General Staff's report. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Pokrovsk direction as of 18 AUG 25. TASS reports that the National Guard of Ukraine is relocating some units from Kharkiv Oblast to the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. TASS reports that Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi recognized the situation as difficult along the entire contact line, especially in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) posts aerial video of military activity in Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk area. РБК-Україна reports Commander Syrskyi commenting on RF forces near Dobropillya, stating "instead of 'forward, victory' - 'encirclement, end'," suggesting effective UA defense or counter-offensive actions. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) posts thermal imaging video claiming to show RF rocket artillery striking enemy strongholds in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UA source) reports liberation of Zolotyi Kolodyaz and Petrivka in Donetsk Oblast, supported by video evidence of soldiers and captured prisoners, directly countering RF claims of gains. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Poltavka, Vilne, Nove Shakhove, Zapovidne, Novoekonomichne, Myrolubivka, Novoukrayinka, Lysivka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne and towards Volodymyrivka, Rodynske, Chervone Lymanu, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Molodetske in the Pokrovsk direction. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) provides a new General Staff update confirming that UA forces, including the 1st Azov Corps (ZSOU and NGU), have cleared the settlements of Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz in Donetsk Oblast. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA Source) reports on an RF military individual having shot a civilian in the Pokrovsk direction. MoD Russia (RF source) claims flamethrowers from the Tsentr Group wiped out a UA stronghold near Krasnoarmeysk. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports an RF military individual shot a civilian in Rodynske, Pokrovsk direction. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) video claims to show "Rubicon" breaking Ukrainian defenses near Krasnoarmeysk. Филолог в засаде (RF source) posted a video requesting donations for a "night bird" (likely DJI Mavic 3T) for artillery reconnaissance on the Pokrovskoe direction. Сливочный каприз (RF source) provided a photo message of their claimed positions between Dobropillya and Kucherov Yar as of 18 Aug 25. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports intense fighting for Udachne and Pervoye Maya. TASS reports that RF forces gained high tempo advance on Donetsk front, and will soon liberate Krasnoarmeysk and Konstantinovka. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) appeals for donations for "motorized rifle units and special forces" that are "actively advancing." A large map of Ukraine was displayed in the Oval Office during the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) and STERNENKO (UA source) post photo messages of the large map of Ukraine in the Oval Office. Rybar (RF source) posts a tactical map for the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd direction as of 18 AUG 25. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video message showing intense fighting and "holding key heights" on the Dobropillya direction. The video appears to be drone footage showing engagements between opposing forces, including vehicles being targeted and destroyed (BBM, "Baba-Yaga" drone, relay station, truck). This confirms ongoing high-intensity combat. Операция Z (RF source) video shows "Otvazhnye" burning a UA stronghold near Pokrovsk using "Tosochka" (TOS-1A). Rybar (RF source) video provides tactical analysis of "pocket" near Alekseevka and fighting for Udachnoe, indicating active combat and RF analytical focus on these areas. Сливочный каприз (RF source) photo message with caption "18.08.25 Krasnoarmeysk - Poltavka" provides an RF claimed tactical map of the Pokrovsk direction, which can be cross-referenced with UA reports of the fighting. A new RF claimed tactical map for the Pokrovsk direction as of 19 AUG 25, captioned "Krasnoarmeysk - Mayak," indicates continued RF focus on this axis. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) video shows RF rocket artillery strikes in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, confirming continued RF fire support for offensive operations. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video shows Ukrainian drone operators "sending occupiers to demobilization" in the Pokrovsk direction, showing footage of enemy movement and casualties and highlighting the effectiveness of the 414th UAV Brigade "Birds of Madyar." Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Dorozhnye, Fedorivka, Nykanorivka, Mayak, Rodynske, Novoekonomichne, Chervonyy Lyman, Promin, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Molodetske, Novoukrayinka, Chunyshyne, Volodymyrivka, Dachne, Lysivka and towards Balahan. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video shows soldiers from the 1st separate assault regiment "Da Vinci" material support company near Pokrovsk, thanking donors for funds to purchase two vehicles. This indicates UA is actively resupplying and adapting for combat in this critical sector. Воин DV (RF source) video claims a compilation of successful fire strikes against the 3rd Assault Brigade "Azov" of the AFU in the Pokrovsk direction by "Center" Group forces. This claim needs further verification but aligns with RF's stated offensive focus in this area. Rybar (RF source) has posted a tactical map for Pokrovsk, with the caption "Pokrovsk: line without line," providing an RF claimed view of the combat area as of 19 AUG 25. DeepState (UA Source) reports map has been updated. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UA reports capture of an RF prisoner from 150th Division by Azov units, and significant RF losses in Azov's areas. Mandatory evacuation of families with children in Druzhkivka suggests anticipated RF advances or increased threat. Closure of Ukrposhta branches in Konstantinovka from August 19 further indicates increasing threat to this logistics hub. Clashes reported near Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, Oleksandra-Kalynove, and Pleschiyivka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Pleschiyivka, Stepanivka, Yablunivka and Rusyn Yar in the Toretsk direction. STERNENKO (UA source) reports that Phoenix UAS tactical group is "cutting Russian logistics" in the Konstantinovka direction. Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) claims RF 4th OMCBR continues to attack towards Delievka – Aleksandro-Shulgino and attempts to break through and consolidate in Belaya Hora. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Toretsk, Scherbynivka and towards Oleksandro-Shultyne, Pleschiyivka, Rusyn Yar in thetsk direction, as well as Poltavka and Berestok. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts a tactical map for the Konstantinovka direction, indicating continued RF focus on this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports that Kyiv is preparing a series of strikes on Kramatorsk, blaming Russia. This is a RF information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Luhansk Oblast (Siversk Direction): RF forces report combat operations with drone-guided artillery and ATGM teams. RF MoD claims destruction of AFU stronghold in Krasny Liman direction. RF aims to advance 2 km to close a "fire bag" for AFU in Kremensky forests. Russian forces reportedly broke through Ukrainian defense lines in the Lyman district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Serebryanka, Siversk, Vyyimka, Fedorivka, Pereyizne and towards Siversk in the Siversk direction. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Kolodezi in Donetsk People's Republic (Luhansk direction). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 63rd Brigade utilizing three FPV drones to neutralize a Russian tank threatening Ukrainian positions east of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast. RF MoD confirms liberation of Kolodezi and Voronoye. Colonelcassad reports on mobile fire groups operating in Belgorod Oblast and Luhansk People's Republic. TASS reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including foreign mercenaries, suffered 4,500 personnel losses in the past week on the Luhansk People's Republic borders, with the Southern Group of Forces inflicting the most damage. TASS claims that Kyiv has struck Lisichansk, LPR, more than 10 times in the past week, resulting in civilian casualties. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Luhansk direction as of 18 AUG 25. Сливочный каприз (RF source) posts a summary of combat operations between August 14-17, 2025, which likely includes the Luhansk direction. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Fedorivka and Vyyimka in the Siversk direction, as well as Serebrianka and Vyimka. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) has provided a photo message of a tactical map for the Siversk direction. Mash na Donbasse reports over 1000 residents of Kamyshnoye and Gerasimovka without power due to a severe fire in LPR. Сливочный каприз (RF source) photo messages with caption "19.08.25 Siversk - Vyyemka" provides RF claimed tactical map of the Siversk direction. Сливочный каприз (RF source) video demonstrates active combat operations in the Siversk direction, including drone strikes on enemy positions and personnel, confirming ongoing high-intensity engagements. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video shows 63rd Mechanized Brigade destroying RF assault groups in the Lyman direction. Colonelcassad (RF source) has posted a tactical map for the Seversk direction as of 19 AUG 25, captioned "Series of successes," which highlights RF claimed gains. New intel indicates RF video footage of military vehicle (likely truck or personnel carrier) moving through wooded area. Target is tracked and "TARGET CAPTURED" (ЦЕЛЬ ЗАХВАЧЕНА) displayed in Russian. Rybar (RF source) has posted a tactical map depicting military activity in the Severky Donets direction, dated August 19, 2025, at 19:00, showing color-coded territorial control and combat areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): Sustained RF artillery and FPV drone attacks on Nikopol and surrounding communities. RF claims control of all settlements at the junction of DNR and Dnipropetropavsk Oblast after liberation of Iskra. Extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Nikopol confirmed. Ballistic missile strike on outskirts of Dnipro confirmed with damage to civilian property. Overnight drone attack on Pokrovska community, Synelnykivskyi district, caused fires at agricultural enterprises. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Voronoye in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetropavsk Regional State Administration) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopolshchyna. A ballistic missile threat on Synelnykove and a high-speed target from the east on Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Explosions were heard in Pavlohrad. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports destruction of a UA T-72 tank by an FPV drone in Ivanivka, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected near Pavlohrad, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a drone (UAV) threat to Pavlohrad. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "powerful explosions" in Pavlohrad. TASS (RF source) claims UA forces in Iskra, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, killed an elderly female civilian. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropropetrovsk Regional State Administration) reports that RF struck Pavlohrad with a missile overnight, causing a fire. Воин DV (RF source) video footage from an aerial platform with thermal imaging, focused on a wooded area on the border of Dnipropetropavsk Oblast and DNR, targeting what appears to be personnel or equipment. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces struck Pavlohrad Repair and Mechanical Plant and Technical Equipment Plant. MoD Russia (RF source) video of servicemen from the Vostok Group of Forces describing the liberation of Iskra in Donetsk People's Republic. Mash на Донbasse (RF source) posts a UA UAV attacked a gas station in Yenakiieve, DNR. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports that UA forces inflicted a successful strike on a gas station in Yenakiieve. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports a substation hit by a "Geran" drone in Mezhove, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video of a burning power substation in Mezhove, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetropavsk Regional State Administration) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol, Marhanets, and Pokrovske communities throughout the day. Photos show damaged civilian buildings. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetropavsk and Donetsk Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of strike UAVs in eastern Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, heading towards Pavlohrad. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 1 "moped" (Shahed) heading towards Dnipro. UA Air Defense reports 7 enemy UAVs shot down over Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. ASTRA (UA source) reports one person injured after Russian attacks in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports the "SKALA" Regiment conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropropetropavsk and Donetsk Oblasts, confirming UA tactical gains. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) video claims destruction of a French "Caesar" self-propelled howitzer and an ammunition vehicle in the Dnipropetropavsk border region by "Vostok" Group of Forces, signaling continued RF focus on Western-supplied artillery. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video depicts a large building complex engulfed in flames and thick black smoke after overnight Shahed attacks in the Synelnykive district. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a photo message showing a tactical map for the Dnipropetrovsk direction. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in eastern Dnipropetropavsk. Colonelcassad (RF source) video shows a Lancet strike on a French CAESAR SPG in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, confirming the targeting and destruction of high-value Western-supplied artillery. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports aviation weapon threat for Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports an explosion in Pavlohrad. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkivskyi District): UA Air Force alerts for high-speed targets and KAB launches. RF claims improved position near Krasny Perviy, controlling ~6 km of road to Dvorechnaya. A substantial increase (estimated 40%) in Russian EW emissions has been detected in the Kharkiv sector, primarily targeting Ukrainian reconnaissance UAVs and degrading ISR capabilities. Continued RF reconnaissance UAVs in northern and eastern Kharkiv Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Khatnye and Fyholivka in the South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction, and also Hlyboke, Kamyanka, Ambarne. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 4 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes in the past day. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. РБК-Україна reports 11 casualties in Kharkiv from recent RF attack. Олег Синєгубов, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, reports 3 additional casualties, bringing total to 11. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates the 11 casualties. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration (UA source), provided multiple photo messages showing damaged civilian residential buildings. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "continuing to pound Kharkiv" with "powerful explosions." РБК-Україна reports an explosion heard in Kharkiv. Mayor Igor Terekhov confirms "Shahed" hits in Industrialnyi district. Oleg Syniehubov confirms two casualties (25-year-old male, 79-year-old female) from drone strike. Subsequent reports from Oleg Syniehubov indicate 10-year-old boy, 19-year-old girl, 46-year-old male, and 47-year-old female hospitalized. Mayor Igor Terekhov reports one fatality and five injured. Kharkiv now reports four fatalities (up from three), including a one-year-old child and a 55-year-old woman, and 17 injured (including 6 children). Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) reports 5 people are currently missing. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and РБК-УкраїНА (UA source) have released additional video footage showing the ongoing search and rescue operation. ASTRA (UA source) has released photos and a drone video showing the extensive destruction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports on the drone attack on a residential high-rise. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА reports a 16-year-old boy became the fourth victim. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports five fatalities. STERNENKO (UA source) corroborates five fatalities. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates five fatalities. Север.Реалії (UA source) reports at least four fatalities. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) reports enemy strikes on Kharkiv and 10 settlements. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports five fatalities and at least 30 injured. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) reports the number of injured has increased to 20. ASTRA (UA source) also reports 30 injured. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts video and photo messages of the aftermath. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) declares August 18 a day of mourning. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports the number of injured has increased to 20. ASTRA (UA source) reports the number of fatalities has increased to 6. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) confirms 6 fatalities. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts an informational message. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the number of fatalities has risen to 7. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates 7 fatalities. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) also confirms 7 fatalities. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts video of border guards liquidating 5 enemy targets. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and Рыбарь (RF source) both post video of a military convoy with RF and US flags. ASTRA (UA source) posts video of a Russian attack on Kharkiv from the city's mayor. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video of Kharkiv mayor showing morning Shahed strikes. РБК-УкраїНА (UA source) posts video of Kharkiv mayor showing the moment of a Russian strike. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts video of Kharkiv, claiming "Tests continue. Be good!". ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing the moment of an RF strike on a residential building. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video showing medics attempting to resuscitate a small child. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, reports an additional three people sought medical attention, bringing total to 23. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts multiple photo messages indicating effective UA drone reconnaissance by the 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade. Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) has provided a photo message warning of fire danger. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on northern Kharkiv Oblast. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 24 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes last week. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video footage of a series of impacts in Kharkiv. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports that "Khartia" drones successfully located and struck an RF camp in Kharkiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts three photo messages depicting a battle map of the Kharkiv direction. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) posts a photo message celebrating Ukrainian leadership. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video showing civilian structures being transported by trucks at night. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a video of a formal gathering of international dignitaries, including Zelenskyy and Trump. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows drone operators of the 3rd Assault Brigade dropping munitions on RF in Kharkiv Oblast. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast is under bomb strike and threat of strike UAVs. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports RF KAB strikes on Ruska Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows 3rd Assault Brigade drone operators striking RF positions in Kharkiv Oblast while peace talks are ongoing. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast under bomb strike and UAV threat. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. A high-speed target is moving through Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast, likely a cruise missile. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Another high-speed target reported in Kharkiv Oblast, same course. UA sources report 4 missiles from Kharkiv Oblast now over Poltava Oblast, heading towards Kremenchuk. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 16 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast sustained enemy strikes yesterday. TASS reports RF forces struck two UA locations in Khatnye and Chuhunivka, Kharkiv Oblast. Олексій Білошицький (UA source) video confirms ongoing rescue operations and significant damage in Kharkiv following drone strikes, highlighting continued RF attacks on civilian infrastructure. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a photo of a multi-story residential building in Kharkiv, extensively damaged, implying a successful RF strike. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports a Russian serviceman will be tried in Kharkiv Oblast for shooting Ukrainian soldiers at the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the new commander of the 13th NGU Brigade "Khartia" is Major Daniel "Cuba" Kitone. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) posts photos of humanitarian aid being delivered to military personnel on the Kharkiv direction. Colonelcassad (RF source) video shows an FPV drone strike by RF "Sever" Group on a building with AFU militants in Tsapovka, Kharkiv Oblast. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 video shows 9 direct hits by "STRIX" unit on the South-Slobozhanskyi direction, with drone footage of targeted enemy positions, a communication tower, and a vehicle, confirming ongoing successful UA strikes. STERNENKO (UA source) reports on an FPV drone strike by RF forces on an emergency medical vehicle in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, indicating a continued disregard for protected civilian assets. ASTRA (UA source) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) both confirm a Russian drone strike on an ambulance in Kupyansk, injuring two people. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts multiple photo messages of military training (obstacle course) for psychological and physical preparation. A group of UAVs from Kharkiv Oblast is now heading towards Poltava Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: UA Air Defense is working in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts, with interception measures engaged. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Chernihiv Oblast: UA Air Force alerts for enemy reconnaissance UAVs, high-speed targets, and threat of strike UAVs. "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on a forward Ukrainian command post in Birino area confirmed. Ballistic missile impact in Honcharivske reported. RF claims destruction of a foreign mercenary legion's base. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Krasnyy Khutir of Chernihiv region, and Polushkyne, Karabany. Colonelcassad reports Kinzhal strike near Desna and Geran/Gerbera strikes near Semenivka (Chernihiv Oblast). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV threat to Brovary and Boryspil districts in Kyiv Oblast and a UAV threat to Kyiv. Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy UAVs on northern Chernihiv Oblast and in the Pryluky area. НгП раZVедка (RF source) claims "Geran" drones are "drilling" Chernihiv Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports enemy UAVs attacked Kyiv Oblast overnight, damaging a hangar in Boryspil district. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Chernihiv Oblast. MoD Russia (RF source) video claiming Geran-2 UAVs hit AFU special forces units of GUR near Zhadovo, Chernihiv region, and also an AFU forward command post near Birino. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UA source) reports UAVs in central Chernihiv Oblast near Pryluky. Операция Z (RF source) posts video claiming Geran strikes hit GUR special forces in Chernihiv. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy strike UAV on northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. UA Air Force reports a UAV threat in Chernihiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces struck a training center in Chernihiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for Chernihiv Oblast has been lifted. Latest UA Air Force reports an enemy UAV on Chernihiv Oblast. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports that RF drones attacked Chernihiv Oblast this morning, causing power outages in some settlements, confirming continued RF drone activity in the area and immediate civilian impact. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) corroborates that parts of Chernihiv Oblast are without electricity after the morning UAV attack, further confirming the immediate civilian impact. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports reconnaissance UAV activity in Chernihiv Oblast with interception measures engaged. An enemy reconnaissance UAV on Chernihiv Oblast, with interception measures engaged. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Nizhyn. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Unidentified UAV activity reported in northern Chernihiv Oblast. UAV heading towards Novgorod-Siverskyi, Borzna (Chernihiv Oblast). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts, with interception measures engaged. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kherson Oblast (Left Bank Dnieper): UA reports destruction of an RF ammunition depot and four vehicles on the left bank. RF claims Lancet strike destroyed US M-777 howitzer and Ukrainian Bogdana SPG on right bank. Ukrainian Navy radio intercepts confirm loss of Russian Su-30SM fighter jet southeast of Snake Island. UA forces repelled 4-6 Russian army assaults. UA source claims reconnaissance units entered "Novaya Kakhovka" on the Kherson direction and are shelling enemy defenses. Southern Ukraine Defense Forces report continued strikes on enemy deployment areas, fire positions, and rear areas in the southern operational zone. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports strikes on Khadzhibeevka and Usatove (Odesa region), specifically targeting "marine BECs" and a 330kv power substation. TASS (RF source) claims that the "Kyiv-appointed" administration of Kherson has long since left the city and is operating remotely from Mykolaiv. TASS reports that the AFU lost a Starlink satellite communication station and 17 UAV control points in the zone of responsibility of the 'Vostok' grouping in the past 24 hours. Два майора (RF source) posts thermal imaging footage claiming to show activity in Kherson at night. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) provides operational information for the Southern Defense Forces. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Kherson direction as of 18 AUG 25. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction, and also clashes near Antonivsky bridge, Dniprovske, and near Bilohrudyy island. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of explosions and vehicle activity in the Kherson direction. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows artillerymen of the 49th Army hitting fortifications on the right bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson region. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) photo message provides operational information for the Southern Defense Forces as of 08:00 19 AUG 25, indicating continued UA monitoring and defense in the southern operational zone. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) photo message with caption "⚡️⚡️Сили оборони Півдня України продовжують уражати місця дислокації ворога, його вогневі позиції та тили." confirms ongoing UA deep strikes and counter-battery fire in the Southern operational zone. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) video shows a fire at a forestry enterprise near Chulakivka in Kherson Oblast, with plumes of smoke, confirming environmental impact from burning vegetation, likely related to conflict activity. Kotsnews (RF source) video depicts RF military medics operating in the Kherson direction, showcasing newly supplied evacuation equipment. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (UA source) video shows FPV operators of the "B.G" unit (Crimean SBU directorate) striking RF personnel on Kinburn Spit, confirming UA special operations and drone effectiveness in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Mykolaiv Oblast: РБК-Україна (UA source) reports an RF missile hit an ancient Jewish cemetery in Pervomaisk, Mykolaiv Oblast. This indicates continued RF targeting of civilian and cultural sites. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) also reports on the situation in Mykolaiv. RF activity has increased significantly in Mykolaiv Oblast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missile danger in Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts. Николаевский Ванёк reports ballistic missile (later corrected to Smerch MLRS) targeting Bilozerka, Mykolaiv Oblast. UA Air Force reports a high-speed target in Mykolaiv Oblast. Another Smerch MLRS strike reported on Bilozerka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Odesa Oblast: STERNENKO reports groups of strike UAVs in the north and near Odesa Oblast. РБК-Україна reports an alert from Odesa Oblast Military Administration calling residents to shelters due to strike UAVs. STERNENKO reports Odesa is under a massive "Shahed" drone attack, with explosions heard. Николаевский Ванёк reports reduction in drone numbers near Odesa. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports continued drone threats in Velyka Balka-Nerubaiske and Radisne-Velykyi Dalnyk (Odesa Oblast). ASTRA reports a large fire in Odesa after a massive Shahed strike. Операция Z (RF source) posts multiple photo and video messages reporting "powerful strikes on enemy objects in Odesa, fires in the city." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports that RF drones struck a Nova Poshta terminal in Odesa. Дневник Десантника (RF source) claims that their strike UAVs hit "several objects" in Odesa overnight. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна (UA source) confirm an RF drone strike on a fuel and energy infrastructure object and a two-story building in the suburbs of Odesa. ASTRA reports a fire on a fuel and energy infrastructure object in Odesa Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) reports Odesa was attacked by Shaheds all night. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video of the aftermath of strikes on an alleged SOCAR oil depot in Odesa Oblast. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims Geran drones destroyed a "giant fuel terminal" of SOCAR. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) reports 24 Shahed UAVs destroyed by Southern Defense Forces. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a map/graphic titled "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine August 17 - August 18, 2025," which likely includes Odesa. Colonelcassad also posts video of an explosion with "kurs_odessa" watermark. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video claiming a massive Shahed attack on SOCAR oil depot in Odesa Oblast. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims "Azerbaijani fuel tanks extinguished." Colonelcassad (RF source) comments that overnight strikes in Odesa targeted Nova Poshta objects and SOCAR. Два майора (RF source) posts video of significant damage to industrial or storage tanks in Odesa. Colonelcassad (RF source) also posts video showing the aftermath of attacks on SOCAR in Odesa. Операция Z (RF source) provides photos of a large fire, likely in Odesa. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows a significant fire at the SOCAR oil depot. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts photos showing a large fire at the SOCAR oil depot in Odesa. Kotsnews (RF source) posts videos confirming significant damage and fires. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) also posts video of the aftermath of the SOCAR oil depot strike. Два майора (RF source) has posted a photo message regarding Romania's desire to expand joint Black Sea patrolling with Bulgaria and Turkey. Colonelcassad (RF source) provides a summary of strikes. WarGonzo (RF source) posted videos showing the aftermath of the SOCAR strike in Odesa. STERNENKO video shows aerial footage likely from a drone, observing an area with what appear to be defensive positions or fortifications. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha reacting to the RF strike on the SOCAR oil depot. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile arrival in Dobroslav. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target on Odesa Oblast, heading northwest. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video shows multiple plumes of black smoke rising from various urban locations, likely Odesa, implying significant fires/explosions. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports the SBU uncovered an RF military intelligence agent group that coordinated shelling of Kyiv and carried out sabotage in Odesa Oblast. This indicates continued RF attempts at covert action in the region. An enemy reconnaissance UAV has been detected in the Black Sea waters near Odesa Oblast, with interception measures engaged. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF destroyed a UA radio point in Odesa Oblast using an Iskander missile. New intelligence indicates multiple ballistic missile launches towards Odesa Oblast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirms missile threat to Odesa. Explosions have been heard in Odesa. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports several groups of UAVs from Black Sea waters heading to Odesa Oblast. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports a "powerful Iskander strike" in Odesa destroyed a German IRIS-T SLM air defense system position. Николаевский Ванёк reports 17 "mopeds" (Shahed) from the sea heading towards/through Tatarbunary. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports ballistic missile arrival against a UA air defense position in Odesa. Николаевский Ванёк reports 20 "mopeds" from Tatarbunary heading to Izmailsky district, and that the first 6 "mopeds" are approaching Izmail. Powerful fire in Izmail (Odesa Oblast) after "Geran" (Shahed) activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: "Night Storm over the Danube: Strike on AFU fuel arteries in Izmail" reported by RF source. This confirms the target of the previous Shahed activity in Izmail and its impact on UA logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports overnight enemy attacks on Izmail, Odesa Oblast, and Okhtyrka, Sumy Oblast, with fires successfully contained and no casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (РБК-Україна source) reports destroying 5 Shaheds overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad (RF source) video shows a large-scale fire at night at an industrial or infrastructure facility in Izmail. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: РБК-Україна (UA source) reports rescue workers showed photos and videos of the consequences of drone attacks in Odesa Oblast, indicating ongoing damage assessment and humanitarian response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RF claims destruction of AFU ammunition depot. 578 RF strikes on 14 settlements over past day. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and also near Novoandriyivka in Orikhiv direction, and Prymorske, Novoandriyivka. A 64-year-old man was wounded in a hostile attack on Polohivskyi district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Tolstoy, Komyshuvakha, Zelene Pole, Maliyivka, Myrne, Zaporizhzhke, Olhivske in the Novopavlivka direction, and also near Kamyanske and Novoandriyivka in the Orikhiv direction, as well as Zirka, Vilne Pole, Voskresenka, Shevchenko, Novodarivka, Olhivske, Novopil, Zelene Pole, Maliyivka, Shevchenko and towards Oleksandrohrad and Komyshuvakha. Colonelcassad reports VKC and missile forces conducted strikes on targets in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Total power outage in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to UA UAV strikes on high-voltage lines. TASS reports power outage did not affect ZNPP operation. Colonelcassad reports RF's 57th Motor Rifle Brigade "Vostok" destroying UA material and technical means, including Starlink terminals. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: UA Air Defense is working in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts, with interception measures engaged. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF forces launched 583 strikes on 11 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Air raid alert lifted in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kupyansk Axis: Previous reports indicated a decisive shift of RF main effort with the capture of Ivanivka. RF continues strikes on settlements. UA reports successful tank sorties and drone operations against RF personnel and equipment. Commander of "Achilles" Regiment Fedorenko (UA source) reports RF plans to occupy Kupyansk by August 24. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports the first mechanized attack by RF on the left bank of Kupyansk in a long time. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Kupyansk direction as of 18 AUG 25. STERNENKO (UA source) reports that 905 drones has been delivered to the Defense Forces in the last two days. Николаевский Ванёк reports a new "singing" RF prisoner was taken under Muravka, Donetsk Oblast, identified as Vladimir Sergeevich from the 35th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. TASS reports the head of Kharkiv VGA Ganchev claims Russian forces are encircling Kupyansk. Воин DV (RF source) video shows aerial footage of an ongoing military engagement impacting a rural or semi-rural landscape, with multiple explosions visible, confirming continued RF operations near Novosyolovka in the Kupyansk direction. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Holubivka, Kupyansk, Petropavlivka, Moskovka and Zahryzove. TASS (RF source) reports that military expert Andrey Marochko states RF forces have started battles near Sobolevka and are advancing towards Blagodatovka near Kupyansk. Сливочный каприз (RF source) posts tactical maps for Kupyansk - Zaoskolye as of 19 AUG 25, implying active combat or planned operations in this specific area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports RF forces have entered Sobolevka in Kharkiv Oblast, and some UA forces attempted to flee. This indicates RF continues offensive actions in the Kupyansk area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports a critical situation with deserters in the 57th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade of the AFU in Kharkiv Oblast. This is an RF information operation aimed at degrading UA morale and credibility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Sumy Oblast: РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian forces actively destroying the enemy in Sumy Oblast, pushing back Russians near Oleksiivka and Yunakivka. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of a destroyed UA M577 command post vehicle in Sumy Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing an RF truck with ammunition epically destroyed by a Ukrainian drone on the way to Sumy Oblast. TASS reports that RF forces have improved their tactical position near Yunakovka, Sumy Oblast. Операция Z (RF source) thermal imagery video claims successful destruction of UA armored vehicles by Spetsnaz "Anvar" and VDV units supporting an offensive on Sumy. РБК-Україна reports a 57-year-old woman injured by a KAB strike on Novoslobidska community, Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new UAVs on northern Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports a missile strike on Sumy. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted photo messages confirming a missile strike on an educational institution. НгП раZVедка (RF source) posts a mocking caption suggesting RF strikes or activity in Shostka. RF reconnaissance UAVs are operating near Putyvl. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Sumy. РБК-Україна reports a series of explosions. Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 new RF UAVs detected east of Bilopillya. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports continued RF attacks on Sumy. Colonelcassad shares video footage from the 68th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th Army, Western Military District. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs. UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs. TASS (RF source) claims that Ukrainian Armed Forces command in Sumy Oblast has committed all resources to outflank RF forces in Yunakivka. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video showing two individuals in a wooded area with abandoned cars and a quad bike, claiming it depicts RF forces marauding in border villages of Kursk Oblast. Kotsnews (RF source) posts video with caption "Syrsky: Kursk - best result among all major operations," which is an RF information operation. MoD Russia (RF source) video claiming a BM-21 Grad MLRS crew eliminated a manpower cluster. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts video of a Lancet loitering munition preparation and strike. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, with 7 repelled assaults. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University. РБК-Україна (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University. Alex Parker Returns (RF) claims the Sumy State University was hit by a "Flamingo missile." Два майора (RF source) posts video showing an RF FPV drone strike. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy strike UAV on northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. RF activity on the Sumy direction, with an aerial view of an exploding vehicle. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) asserts that RF forces have been defeated in Sumy Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a video of drone-guided artillery or air strikes. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) amplifies Syrsky's (misquoted) statements. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts a photo message showing activity on the Eastern Direction. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports a severe injury to an RF General in Kursk Oblast from a HIMARS strike. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video from local residents showing a visual confirmation of RF "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on Sumy State University. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAV threat. TASS (RF source) claims that military expert Yan Gagin states AFU unsuccessfully counterattack. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows Uragan MLRS crews eliminating AFU armored vehicles. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows T-80BVM tanks of the Sever Group of Forces eliminating AFU hardware. RF has again attacked civilian infrastructure in Sumy. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast moving south. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of enemy UAVs on the north, east, and south of Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. An explosion was heard in Sumy. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Sumy Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UA source) video indicates UA forces are expanding their buffer zone in the Sumy region. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) video shows two individuals in a wooded area, likely RF personnel, but content is general and not highly specific to Sumy operations. STERNENKO (UA source) posts a photo message with incendiary content, implying attacks on Russian border regions, which is a PSYOP. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat from the northeast. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts a photo message showing a battlefield map for the Sumy direction, indicating active counterattacks by VSU and the use of SU-27 fighter jets for strikes on RF positions. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Hirky of Sumy region. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in central Sumy Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts photo messages claiming foreign mercenaries were destroyed in Sumy Oblast. Старше Эдды (RF source) posts photo messages claiming Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups (SRG) attempted an infiltration into Bryansk Oblast, resulting in 3 killed and 3 captured (including a Ukrainian SOF captain) by SOBR and FSB. This RF claim indicates continued UA deep strike/reconnaissance efforts into RF territory. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) and Операция Z (RF source) repost images and claims regarding the alleged Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast. This indicates a coordinated RF information operation regarding perceived Ukrainian incursions. Colonelcassad (RF source) also reposts the claim regarding the alleged Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast, confirming widespread RF dissemination of this information. Colonelcassad (RF source) video claims to show the destruction of a temporary deployment point (PVD) and an armored fighting vehicle (BBM) of the 116th Territorial Defense Brigade (TrO) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, using a "Forpost" UAV in Obody, Sumy Oblast. This indicates continued RF targeting of UA rear assets. STERNENKO (UA source) reports on PERUN Industries operating in Sumy Oblast, likely an arms or drone manufacturing facility. New intel: KAB launches by RF tactical aviation reported on Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a photo message showing a tactical map for the Sumy direction. The caption suggests ongoing combat activity in the area. STERNENKO (UA source) reports drone safety zones in multiple RF oblasts. TASS reports that law enforcement agencies claim that the occupation of part of Kursk Oblast by the Armed Forces of Ukraine was enabled by the embezzlement of funds during the construction of fortifications. This is a significant RF information operation, blaming corruption for military setbacks and indirectly acknowledging Ukrainian presence in Kursk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: New groups of UAVs reported entering Sumy Oblast, heading towards Khotyn. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports a massive enemy strike on a private sector area in Okhtyrka community, Sumy Oblast, with no casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ASTRA (UA source) reports 12 people injured in Okhtyrka, Sumy Oblast, following an RF attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: РБК-Україна (UA source) reports a massive enemy drone strike on Okhtyrka, Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports that a heavy mechanized brigade of the AFU is being withdrawn from under Sumy due to losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Poltava Oblast: Poltava and its community without electricity after massive overnight attack. RF drones attacked a gas transportation system facility and Kremenchuk oil refinery, causing extensive fires and smoke plumes. Unexploded cluster munitions found in Kremenchuk. Supply of Russian oil through "Druzhba" pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia suspended due to UA UAV attacks (now reportedly resumed). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: A UAV from Poltava Oblast is heading towards Myrhorod. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kyiv Oblast: Car explosion in Podilskyi district, Kyiv, claimed by RF as "Ukrainian partisans" blowing up a military vehicle. Enemy UAVs attacked Kyiv Oblast overnight, damaging a hangar in Boryspil district. Multiple air raid alerts due to MiG-31K takeoffs and ballistic missile threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Overall Frontline: RF continues employment of FPV drone swarms and Lancet loitering munitions, with a reported 20% increase in Lancet strikes. UA inflicted significant personnel losses (1010 RF personnel in the last 24h, total 276,300 since year start; 890 RF personnel liquidated in the last 24 hours). UA deep strikes into RF territory include the Syzran Oil Refinery (Samara Oblast), Olya seaport (Astrakhan Oblast), the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast, and a drone attack on Azot chemical plant in Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol Krai. 61 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed by UA. Prisoner exchange of 84 servicemen conducted. Tu-95MS strategic bombers are airborne, indicating potential for new missile launches. RF sources confirm Trump's phone call with Putin and the initiation of preparation for a tripartite meeting. Trump, European leaders, and Zelenskyy will hold another virtual meeting. Zelenskyy confirmed an arms deal with the US, proposing to purchase $90 billion in weapons. Zelenskyy stated he is ready for unconditional talks with Putin, leaving territorial questions to them. Security guarantees for Ukraine are planned to be formulated within 7-10 days. Macron discussed strengthening sanctions if Russia refuses to end the conflict and hopes for a trilateral meeting. NATO Secretary General Rutte stated there is an irreversible path for Ukraine into NATO, but membership is not currently discussed; arms supplies will continue through NATO countries. No discussion of Ukrainian territorial concessions at White House. Putin has spoken with nine foreign leaders in three days. Non-European countries will also participate in formulating security guarantees. ASTRA reports Ursula von der Leyen's statement on return of abducted Ukrainian children. TASS reports 23 UA UAVs shot down over RF and annexed Crimea overnight. RF MoD reports 23 UAVs shot down overnight. РФ reports 236/280 enemy targets shot down/suppressed by UA. RF intelligence claims a US M113 APC with RF and US flags is operating in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reports a large Starlink outage. Joint statement after Trump-Zelenskyy talks cancelled. Trump suggests Putin agreed to security guarantees for Ukraine and that territory exchange based on current front lines needs discussion. Trump believes RF will no longer attack Ukraine and expresses confidence in releasing over a thousand POWs soon. Macron proposes a four-way meeting. The "Druzhba" oil pipeline (Nikolske station) has resumed operations after UA drone strike. Putin reportedly proposed meeting Zelenskyy in Moscow during his call with Trump. Germany is working with partners on security guarantees for Ukraine. Politico reports US considering Hungary for a Putin-Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. TASS reports RF forces shot down 42 Ukrainian UAVs overnight over Russian regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Vologograd Airport restrictions lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Tambov Airport temporarily restricted for flights. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Nizhny Novgorod Airport temporarily restricted for flights. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports restrictions at Nizhny Novgorod airport have been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Voronezh Oblast reports at least 7 UAVs shot down/suppressed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF MoD reports 42 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Germany: RBK-Ukraine reports that four Bundeswehr vehicles were burned by unknown individuals in Germany. This is a domestic security incident and not directly related to military operations in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Bryansk Oblast, RF: AV БогомаZ reports that seven enemy UAVs of aircraft type were destroyed over Bryansk Oblast by RF Air Defense. Colonelcassad (RF source) video shows an Iskander strike, linked with ZALA UAV reconnaissance, destroying a UA long-range UAV launch site. This implies a combined RF ISR-strike capability targeting high-value UA drone assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad reports a RAM-2X UAV was shot down by Russian forces in Belgorod Oblast. This confirms continued UA drone activity into RF territory, specifically targeting Belgorod. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Crimea: RBC-Ukraine reports that Russians have intensified mass "filtration measures" in Crimea. This indicates increased RF internal security operations in occupied territories, likely aimed at suppressing dissent or identifying individuals with ties to Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kryvyi Rih: Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of the morning of 20 AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Current Conditions: No new significant weather events. Previous reports of challenging terrain (mud-covered vehicles), localized forest fires, and strong winds affecting drone operations persist. RF video shows ATVs operating in heavy mud, confirming difficult off-road conditions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Impact from Attacks: Large industrial fires from UA deep strikes (Syzran Oil Refinery, Ryazan gunpowder workshop, Azot chemical plant, Nikolske oil pumping station) and RF strikes (Kremenchuk Oil Refinery, SOCAR oil depot in Odesa, gas transportation system in Poltava Oblast) are generating significant smoke and potential environmental contamination, impacting local air quality and visibility. This also includes localized damage and power outages in Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, and occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblasts due to RF drone and missile attacks on civilian and energy infrastructure. The finding of unexploded cluster munitions in Kremenchuk poses an ongoing environmental and safety hazard. The burning of the Kremenchuk oil refinery from RF "Geranium" (Shahed) strikes is explicitly highlighted as ongoing. ASTRA and TASS report total power outage in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to UA UAV strikes, according to RF official Balitsky. Mash na Donbasse reports electricity outage in Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to UA UAV strike on a high-voltage line. Powerful fire in Izmail (Odesa Oblast) after "Geran" (Shahed) activity, confirmed to be a strike on fuel arteries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Humanitarian Impact: Confirmed fatalities and injured personnel (7 fatalities, 23 injured in Kharkiv; 3 fatalities, 34 injured in Zaporizhzhia; 12 injured in Sumy Oblast) from RF strikes on civilian residential areas underscore severe humanitarian and environmental impacts. RF missile strike on a Jewish cemetery in Pervomaisk, Mykolaiv Oblast, highlights disregard for civilian and cultural sites. Water shortages in Donetsk further highlight civilian suffering due to infrastructure damage. New civilian fatality reported in Nikopol due to RF shelling, one woman killed. Multiple ballistic missile launches towards Odesa, indicating continued RF targeting of population centers. TASS reports Ukraine evacuated over 52,000 people from Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Other Factors: RF reports of heat aiding RF forces in evading UA thermal imagers on the Zaporizhzhia front, suggesting localized environmental exploitation. Solar flares expected to intensify magnetic storms, potentially affecting satellite communications, GPS, and radio signals (C2/ISR). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Current Air Alerts: RF is attacking Ukraine with Shahed drones (Air Raid Map shows red highlights across Ukraine). KABs launched towards Donetsk Oblast. Reconnaissance UAVs reported in central Sumy Oblast, eastern Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, northern Donetsk Oblast, and Chernihiv Oblast (heading towards Nizhyn), with an enemy strike UAV from Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, and another UAV from Chernihiv Oblast moving into Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast. Aviation weapon threat declared for Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. A UAV is reported heading towards Pavlohrad. Multiple groups of UAVs reported from Dnipropetropavsk Oblast towards Donetsk Oblast. KAB launches by RF tactical aviation reported on Sumy Oblast. Ballistic missile threats to Odesa are immediate and require rapid air defense responses. Renewed explosions in Zaporizhzhia, coupled with reports of total power outage in occupied parts of the oblast, require immediate damage assessment and response. Izmail (Odesa Oblast) and Dunaisske are under attack from Shahed drones, which are now reportedly "minus." Air danger regime has been introduced in Lipetsk Oblast (yellow alert) and Yelets/surrounding areas (red alert for UAV attack threat). Air traffic restrictions implemented in Samara, Saratov, and Volgograd airports due to UAV threats. New air traffic restrictions in Tambov and Nizhny Novgorod airports due to UAV threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• NEW: RF Rospotrebnadzor names main epidemiological threats in Russia, which could indicate a potential public health concern impacting RF personnel strength or logistical focus. (LOW CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske Axis): RF (elements of 98th VDV Division) maintain a foothold in eastern Kanal microdistrict, conducting battalion-sized mechanized assaults. UA units tactically withdrew to prepared defensive positions. UA 93rd Brigade conducting clearance operations in Hruzke and Vesele (Dobropillya area) with tank and robotic support. UA Azov Brigade actively repelling RF attacks in Katerynivka. RF 85th OMCBR in Soledar direction. RF 36th OA forces (37th OMCBR, 336th Marine Brigade) pressing towards Maliyivka, Shevchenko, and Yanvarske. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF claims destruction of a UA M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzer near Myrnohrad by FPV drones from "Rubicon" Center. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovskoe Direction): RF claims "big breakthrough" and liberation of Iskra, with advances up to 1.5km towards Sokil from Ocheretyne. UA forces (1st Azov Corps) cleared Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz, directly countering RF claims. UA Commander Syrskyi reports successful UA advances in Dobropillya and Pokrovsk directions. TASS reports RF 'Vostok' grouping advanced into Ivankiv, Poltavka, and Zeleny Gay. Ukrainian National Guard relocating units from Kharkiv to Pokrovsk direction. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBR) successfully destroying a camouflaged RF tank using an FPV drone (Vidarr), after aerial reconnaissance identified the target. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UA reports capture of an RF prisoner (150th Division) and significant RF losses in Azov's areas. Mandatory evacuation in Druzhkivka and closure of Ukrposhta branches in Konstantinovka indicate anticipated RF advances. RF 4th OMCBR continues attacks towards Delievka – Aleksandro-Shulgino. Slivochny Kapriz (RF source) provides a map of RF claimed positions for the Konstantinovka - Aleksandro-Shultino direction as of 19 AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports that Kyiv is preparing a series of strikes on Kramatorsk, blaming Russia. This is a RF information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Luhansk Oblast (Siversk Direction): RF reports combat operations with drone-guided artillery and ATGM teams, aiming to close a "fire bag" for AFU in Kremensky forests. Russian forces reportedly broke through Ukrainian defense lines in the Lyman district. UA 63rd Brigade successfully utilizing FPV drones to neutralize RF tanks. Rybar (RF source) posts tactical maps for Severodonetsk area showing "series of successes," indicating continued RF offensive actions in this sector. Colonelcassad (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Seversk direction showing RF claimed "series of successes" as of 19 AUG 25. New RF video shows military vehicle movement and successful targeting ("TARGET CAPTURED") in Krasny Lyman direction, suggesting gradual expansion of RF control. Rybar (RF source) has posted a tactical map depicting military activity in the Severky Donets direction, dated August 19, 2025, at 19:00, showing color-coded territorial control and combat areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): Sustained RF artillery and FPV drone attacks on Nikopol and surrounding communities. RF claims control of all settlements at the junction of DNR and Dnipropetropavsk Oblast after liberation of Iskra. UA Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetropavsk and Donetsk Oblasts. RF targeting high-value Western-supplied artillery (French CAESAR SPG) with Lancet strikes. A UAV is reported heading towards Pavlohrad. RF shelling of Nikopol injured rescuers and killed a civilian woman. An explosion has been reported in Pavlohrad (RBC-Ukraine). TASS reports Ukraine evacuated over 52,000 people from Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetropavsk Regional State Administration) reports drone attacks on Pavlohrad overnight, causing fire and damage to a transport enterprise, with no casualties. This confirms continued RF targeting of transport infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts photos showing damaged residential buildings in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming the impact of RF shelling on civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkivskyi District): RF claims improved position near Krasny Perviy, controlling ~6 km of road to Dvorechnaya. Significant increase (40%) in RF EW emissions has been detected in the Kharkiv sector primarily targeting Ukrainian reconnaissance UAVs and degrading ISR capabilities. UA "Khartia" drones successfully located and struck an RF camp. UA 3rd Assault Brigade drone operators striking RF positions. UA ОТУ "Харків" reports 9 direct hits by "STRIX" unit on South-Slobozhanskyi direction. New commander for 13th NGU Brigade "Khartia," Major Daniel "Cuba" Kitone. RF FPV drone strike on an emergency medical vehicle in Kupyansk reported. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts multiple photo messages of military training (obstacle course) for psychological and physical preparation. New UAV activity reported near Borova. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports RF forces have entered Sobolevka in Kharkiv Oblast, and some UA forces attempted to flee. This indicates RF continues offensive actions in the Kupyansk area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts, with interception measures engaged. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports a critical situation with deserters in the 57th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade of the AFU in Kharkiv Oblast. This is an RF information operation aimed at degrading UA morale and credibility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Chernihiv Oblast: RF "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes confirmed on a forward Ukrainian command post in Birino. RF claims destruction of a foreign mercenary legion's base. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes. RF drones attacked Chernihiv Oblast, causing power outages. A RF "Forpost" UAV allegedly destroyed a UA temporary deployment point and armored vehicle in Obody, Sumy Oblast, indicating RF operations in border areas. Ongoing enemy UAV activity in northern Chernihiv Oblast, with some heading towards Novgorod-Siverskyi and Borzna. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Unidentified UAV activity reported in northern Chernihiv Oblast. UAV heading towards Novgorod-Siverskyi, Borzna (Chernihiv Oblast). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts, with interception measures engaged. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kherson Oblast (Left Bank Dnieper): UA reports destruction of an RF ammunition depot and four vehicles on the left bank. UA reconnaissance units claim entry into "Novaya Kakhovka." UA Southern Defense Forces report continued strikes on enemy deployment areas and fire positions. RF claims Lancet strike destroyed US M-777 howitzer and Ukrainian Bogdana SPG on right bank. FPV operators of "B.G" unit (Crimean SBU directorate) striking RF personnel on Kinburn Spit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Два майора (RF source) video shows multiple fiery trails in the sky, possibly missile or rocket launches, over the Black Sea, implying continued RF long-range strike capabilities or air defense activity in the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Mykolaiv Oblast: RF missile hit an ancient Jewish cemetery in Pervomaisk. IMMEDIATE THREAT: Missile danger declared for Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts. Ballistic missile (later corrected to Smerch MLRS) targeting Bilozerka, Mykolaiv Oblast. High-speed target confirmed in Mykolaiv Oblast. Another Smerch MLRS strike reported on Bilozerka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Odesa Oblast: Odesa under massive "Shahed" drone attack, with confirmed strikes on a Nova Poshta terminal and SOCAR oil depot. UA Southern Defense Forces report 24 Shahed UAVs destroyed. RF military intelligence agent group uncovered by SBU, coordinating shelling of Kyiv and sabotage in Odesa Oblast. RF claims Iskander strike destroyed a UA radio point in Odesa Oblast. STERNENKO (UA source) video claims Yokai Group destroyed 15 enemy wings, and shows drone footage of ZALA Lancet and a "MOL" target, with static/interference. Multiple ballistic missile launches towards Odesa. Explosions heard in Odesa. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports several groups of UAVs from Black Sea waters heading to Odesa Oblast. НгП раZVедка (RF source) claims an Iskander strike destroyed a German IRIS-T SLM air defense system position in Odesa. Николаевский Ванёк reports 17 "mopeds" (Shahed) from the sea heading towards/through Tatarbunary. Colonelcassad reports ballistic missile strike on a UA air defense position in Odesa. Николаевский Ванёк reports 20 "mopeds" from Tatarbunary heading to Izmailsky district, with 6 approaching Izmail. Powerful fire in Izmail (Odesa Oblast) after "Geran" (Shahed) activity, confirmed as a strike on fuel arteries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: "Night Storm over the Danube: Strike on AFU fuel arteries in Izmail" reported by RF source. This confirms the target of the previous Shahed activity in Izmail and its impact on UA logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports overnight enemy attacks on Izmail, Odesa Oblast, and Okhtyrka, Sumy Oblast, with fires successfully contained and no casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (РБК-Україна source) reports destroying 5 Shaheds overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad (RF source) video shows a large-scale fire at night at an industrial or infrastructure facility in Izmail. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: РБК-Україна (UA source) reports rescue workers showed photos and videos of the consequences of drone attacks in Odesa Oblast, indicating ongoing damage assessment and humanitarian response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad (RF source) claims a powerful Iskander strike destroyed a German IRIS-T SLM air defense system position in Odesa. This indicates RF continues to prioritize targeting high-value Western air defense systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RF claims destruction of AFU ammunition depot. 578 RF strikes on 14 settlements over past day. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and also near Novoandriyivka in Orikhiv direction, and Prymorske, Novoandriyivka. A 64-year-old man was wounded in a hostile attack on Polohivskyi district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Tolstoy, Komyshuvakha, Zelene Pole, Maliyivka, Myrne, Zaporizhzhke, Olhivske in the Novopavlivka direction, and also near Kamyanske and Novoandriyivka in the Orikhiv direction, as well as Zirka, Vilne Pole, Voskresenka, Shevchenko, Novodarivka, Olhivske, Novopil, Zelene Pole, Maliyivka, Shevchenko and towards Oleksandrohrad and Komyshuvakha. Colonelcassad reports VKC and missile forces conducted strikes on targets in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Total power outage in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to UA UAV strikes on high-voltage lines. TASS reports power outage did not affect ZNPP operation. Colonelcassad reports RF's 57th Motor Rifle Brigade "Vostok" destroying UA material and technical means, including Starlink terminals. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: UA Air Defense is working in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts, with interception measures engaged. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF forces launched 583 strikes on 11 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Air raid alert lifted in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kupyansk Axis: Previous reports indicated a decisive shift of RF main effort with the capture of Ivanivka. RF continues strikes on settlements. UA reports successful tank sorties and drone operations against RF personnel and equipment. Commander of "Achilles" Regiment Fedorenko (UA source) reports RF plans to occupy Kupyansk by August 24. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports the first mechanized attack by RF on the left bank of Kupyansk in a long time. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Kupyansk direction as of 18 AUG 25. STERNENKO (UA source) reports that 905 drones has been delivered to the Defense Forces in the last two days. Николаевский Ванёк reports a new "singing" RF prisoner was taken under Muravka, Donetsk Oblast, identified as Vladimir Sergeevich from the 35th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. TASS reports the head of Kharkiv VGA Ganchev claims Russian forces are encircling Kupyansk. Воин DV (RF source) video shows aerial footage of an ongoing military engagement impacting a rural or semi-rural landscape, with multiple explosions visible, confirming continued RF operations near Novosyolovka in the Kupyansk direction. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Holubivka, Kupyansk, Petropavlivka, Moskovka and Zahryzove. TASS (RF source) reports that military expert Andrey Marochko states RF forces have started battles near Sobolevka and are advancing towards Blagodatovka near Kupyansk. Сливочный каприз (RF source) posts tactical maps for Kupyansk - Zaoskolye as of 19 AUG 25, implying active combat or planned operations in this specific area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports RF forces have entered Sobolevka in Kharkiv Oblast, and some UA forces attempted to flee. This indicates RF continues offensive actions in the Kupyansk area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Sumy Oblast: РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian forces actively destroying the enemy in Sumy Oblast, pushing back Russians near Oleksiivka and Yunakivka. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of a destroyed UA M577 command post vehicle in Sumy Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing an RF truck with ammunition epically destroyed by a Ukrainian drone on the way to Sumy Oblast. TASS reports that RF forces have improved their tactical position near Yunakovka, Sumy Oblast. Операция Z (RF source) thermal imagery video claims successful destruction of UA armored vehicles by Spetsnaz "Anvar" and VDV units supporting an offensive on Sumy. РБК-Україна reports a 57-year-old woman injured by a KAB strike on Novoslobidska community, Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new UAVs on northern Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports a missile strike on Sumy. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted photo messages confirming a missile strike on an educational institution. НгП раZVедка (RF source) posts a mocking caption suggesting RF strikes or activity in Shostka. RF reconnaissance UAVs are operating near Putyvl. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Sumy. РБК-Україна reports a series of explosions. Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 new RF UAVs detected east of Bilopillya. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports continued RF attacks on Sumy. Colonelcassad shares video footage from the 68th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th Army, Western Military District. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs. UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs. TASS (RF source) claims that Ukrainian Armed Forces command in Sumy Oblast has committed all resources to outflank RF forces in Yunakivka. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video showing two individuals in a wooded area with abandoned cars and a quad bike, claiming it depicts RF forces marauding in border villages of Kursk Oblast. Kotsnews (RF source) posts video with caption "Syrsky: Kursk - best result among all major operations," which is an RF information operation. MoD Russia (RF source) video claiming a BM-21 Grad MLRS crew eliminated a manpower cluster. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts video of a Lancet loitering munition preparation and strike. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, with 7 repelled assaults. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University. РБК-Україна (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University. Alex Parker Returns (RF) claims the Sumy State University was hit by a "Flamingo missile." Два майора (RF source) posts video showing an RF FPV drone strike. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy strike UAV on northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. RF activity on the Sumy direction, with an aerial view of an exploding vehicle. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) asserts that RF forces have been defeated in Sumy Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a video of drone-guided artillery or air strikes. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) amplifies Syrsky's (misquoted) statements. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts a photo message showing activity on the Eastern Direction. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports a severe injury to an RF General in Kursk Oblast from a HIMARS strike. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video from local residents showing a visual confirmation of RF "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on Sumy State University. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAV threat. TASS (RF source) claims that military expert Yan Gagin states AFU unsuccessfully counterattack. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows Uragan MLRS crews eliminating AFU armored vehicles. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows T-80BVM tanks of the Sever Group of Forces eliminating AFU hardware. RF has again attacked civilian infrastructure in Sumy. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast moving south. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of enemy UAVs on the north, east, and south of Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. An explosion was heard in Sumy. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Sumy Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UA source) video indicates UA forces are expanding their buffer zone in the Sumy region. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) video shows two individuals in a wooded area, likely RF personnel, but content is general and not highly specific to Sumy operations. STERNENKO (UA source) posts a photo message with incendiary content, implying attacks on Russian border regions, which is a PSYOP. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat from the northeast. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts a photo message showing a battlefield map for the Sumy direction, indicating active counterattacks by VSU and the use of SU-27 fighter jets for strikes on RF positions. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Hirky of Sumy region. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in central Sumy Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts photo messages claiming foreign mercenaries were destroyed in Sumy Oblast. Старше Эдды (RF source) posts photo messages claiming Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups (SRG) attempted an infiltration into Bryansk Oblast, resulting in 3 killed and 3 captured (including a Ukrainian SOF captain) by SOBR and FSB. This RF claim indicates continued UA deep strike/reconnaissance efforts into RF territory. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) and Операция Z (RF source) repost images and claims regarding the alleged Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast. This indicates a coordinated RF information operation regarding perceived Ukrainian incursions. Colonelcassad (RF source) also reposts the claim regarding the alleged Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast, confirming widespread RF dissemination of this information. Colonelcassad (RF source) video claims to show the destruction of a temporary deployment point (PVD) and an armored fighting vehicle (BBM) of the 116th Territorial Defense Brigade (TrO) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, using a "Forpost" UAV in Obody, Sumy Oblast. This indicates continued RF targeting of UA rear assets. STERNENKO (UA source) reports on PERUN Industries operating in Sumy Oblast, likely an arms or drone manufacturing facility. New intel: KAB launches by RF tactical aviation reported on Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a photo message showing a tactical map for the Sumy direction. The caption suggests ongoing combat activity in the area. STERNENKO (UA source) reports drone safety zones in multiple RF oblasts. TASS reports that law enforcement agencies claim that the occupation of part of Kursk Oblast by the Armed Forces of Ukraine was enabled by the embezzlement of funds during the construction of fortifications. This is a significant RF information operation, blaming corruption for military setbacks and indirectly acknowledging Ukrainian presence in Kursk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: New groups of UAVs reported entering Sumy Oblast, heading towards Khotyn. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports a massive enemy strike on a private sector area in Okhtyrka community, Sumy Oblast, with no casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ASTRA (UA source) reports 12 people injured in Okhtyrka, Sumy Oblast, following an RF attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: РБК-Україна (UA source) reports a massive enemy drone strike on Okhtyrka, Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports that a heavy mechanized brigade of the AFU is being withdrawn from under Sumy due to losses. This is an RF information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Poltava Oblast: Poltava and its community without electricity after massive overnight attack. RF drones attacked a gas transportation system facility and Kremenchuk oil refinery, causing extensive fires and smoke plumes. Unexploded cluster munitions found in Kremenchuk. Supply of Russian oil through "Druzhba" pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia suspended due to UA UAV attacks (now reportedly resumed). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: A UAV from Poltava Oblast is heading towards Myrhorod. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kyiv Oblast: Car explosion in Podilskyi district, Kyiv, claimed by RF as "Ukrainian partisans" blowing up a military vehicle. Enemy UAVs attacked Kyiv Oblast overnight, damaging a hangar in Boryspil district. Multiple air raid alerts due to MiG-31K takeoffs and ballistic missile threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Overall Frontline: RF continues employment of FPV drone swarms and Lancet loitering munitions, with a reported 20% increase in Lancet strikes. UA inflicted significant personnel losses (1010 RF personnel in the last 24h, total 276,300 since year start; 890 RF personnel liquidated in the last 24 hours). UA deep strikes into RF territory include the Syzran Oil Refinery (Samara Oblast), Olya seaport (Astrakhan Oblast), the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast, and a drone attack on Azot chemical plant in Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol Krai. 61 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed by UA. Prisoner exchange of 84 servicemen conducted. Tu-95MS strategic bombers are airborne, indicating potential for new missile launches. RF sources confirm Trump's phone call with Putin and the initiation of preparation for a tripartite meeting. Trump, European leaders, and Zelenskyy will hold another virtual meeting. Zelenskyy confirmed an arms deal with the US, proposing to purchase $90 billion in weapons. Zelenskyy stated he is ready for unconditional talks with Putin, leaving territorial questions to them. Security guarantees for Ukraine are planned to be formulated within 7-10 days. Macron discussed strengthening sanctions if Russia refuses to end the conflict and hopes for a trilateral meeting. NATO Secretary General Rutte stated there is an irreversible path for Ukraine into NATO, but membership is not currently discussed; arms supplies will continue through NATO countries. No discussion of Ukrainian territorial concessions at White House. Putin has spoken with nine foreign leaders in three days. Non-European countries will also participate in formulating security guarantees. ASTRA reports Ursula von der Leyen's statement on return of abducted Ukrainian children. TASS reports 23 UA UAVs shot down over RF and annexed Crimea overnight. RF MoD reports 23 UAVs shot down overnight. РФ reports 236/280 enemy targets shot down/suppressed by UA. RF intelligence claims a US M113 APC with RF and US flags is operating in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reports a large Starlink outage. Joint statement after Trump-Zelenskyy talks cancelled. Trump suggests Putin agreed to security guarantees for Ukraine and that territory exchange based on current front lines needs discussion. Trump believes RF will no longer attack Ukraine and expresses confidence in releasing over a thousand POWs soon. Macron proposes a four-way meeting. The "Druzhba" oil pipeline (Nikolske station) has resumed operations after UA drone strike. Putin reportedly proposed meeting Zelenskyy in Moscow during his call with Trump. Germany is working with partners on security guarantees for Ukraine. Politico reports US considering Hungary for a Putin-Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. TASS reports RF forces shot down 42 Ukrainian UAVs overnight over Russian regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Vologograd Airport restrictions lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Tambov Airport temporarily restricted for flights. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Nizhny Novgorod Airport temporarily restricted for flights. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports restrictions at Nizhny Novgorod airport have been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Voronezh Oblast reports at least 7 UAVs shot down/suppressed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF MoD reports 42 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports that Zelenskyy will continue to play a game to prevent peace, according to former Ukrainian Prime Minister Azarov. This is a RF information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Russia has patented a combined van for delivering food to military personnel. This indicates ongoing efforts by Russia to improve logistical support for its forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RBK-Ukraine reports that Trump compared Ukrainian Crimea to American Texas. This is a propaganda piece used by UA to highlight Trump's controversial remarks on Ukrainian territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports the duration of the Alaska summit was due to progress in settlement discussions. This indicates RF framing of the diplomatic event to suggest successful dialogue from their perspective. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Russian police video shows law enforcement operation related to immigration, with focus on foreign citizens and illegal registration. Not military. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF Telegram channel (НгП раZVедка) posts video titled "An hour of fun," showing a civilian protest interacting with a political leader cutout and Turkish flags. Not military. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad posts new video titled "Новая страница в беспилотных средствах поражения!" (A new page in unmanned means of destruction!). The video shows thermal imaging footage from an aerial perspective of a wooded area, with an explosion and subsequent smaller explosions or secondary impacts, along with multiple heat signatures on the ground (personnel/vehicles). A 'T.ME/RUSICH_ARMY' watermark is present. This indicates continued development and use of advanced drone-based strike capabilities by RF, specifically by a pro-Russian military group. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports on Ukraine's national bank data, claiming that Kyiv and its allies will not be able to purchase $90 billion worth of weapons from the US. This is a RF information operation aimed at undermining confidence in UA's ability to secure Western military aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: China Daily editorial (TASS source) claims the US is pressuring Ukraine and Europe to soften their positions in negotiations. This is an information operation, likely from a pro-RF perspective, to portray US as manipulative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Igor Artamonov (RF source) reports that the yellow air danger alert in Lipetsk Oblast has been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Два майора (RF source) provides a morning summary for August 20, 2025. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports on Bloomberg's discussion of a plan for British and French troops in Ukraine as part of a peace agreement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Russia has patented a new thermobaric hand grenade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports that former Serbian Prime Minister Milos Vucevic stated that Serbia's refusal to impose sanctions against Russia increased external pressure on the country. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) video shows a Russian soldier receiving a package via drone drop. This indicates RF continued use of drones for logistical support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Басурин о главном (RF source) posts a photo message with the caption "#ДЕНЬвИСТОРИИ". This is a general historical post, not military intelligence. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
• Germany: RBK-Ukraine reports that four Bundeswehr vehicles were burned by unknown individuals in Germany. This is a domestic security incident and not directly related to military operations in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Bryansk Oblast, RF: AV БогомаZ reports that seven enemy UAVs of aircraft type were destroyed over Bryansk Oblast by RF Air Defense. Colonelcassad (RF source) video shows an Iskander strike, linked with ZALA UAV reconnaissance, destroying a UA long-range UAV launch site. This implies a combined RF ISR-strike capability targeting high-value UA drone assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad reports a RAM-2X UAV was shot down by Russian forces in Belgorod Oblast. This confirms continued UA drone activity into RF territory, specifically targeting Belgorod. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Crimea: RBC-Ukraine reports that Russians have intensified mass "filtration measures" in Crimea. This indicates increased RF internal security operations in occupied territories, likely aimed at suppressing dissent or identifying individuals with ties to Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kryvyi Rih: Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of the morning of 20 AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Air Superiority/Glide Bombs: RF retains significant air superiority in key sectors, enabling sustained, high-volume employment of FAB-500 glide bombs (e.g., Chasiv Yar). This is their primary method for suppressing UA defenses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAV Offense (FPV/Lancet): Continued and increased (20% reported increase in Lancet strikes) use of FPV drone swarms and Lancet loitering munitions across the front, highly effective against personnel, vehicles, and high-value targets (e.g., UA M109 Paladin, French CAESAR SPG). RF is developing new advanced drone-based strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Artillery and MLRS: Continued heavy use of artillery (e.g., 583 strikes on Zaporizhzhia, Grad MLRS in Toretsk) and MLRS (Smerch strikes in Mykolaiv) for suppression and attrition. RF targeting of MLRS is explicitly mentioned. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Reconnaissance & EW: RF is actively deploying reconnaissance UAVs across multiple oblasts (Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk) and has introduced advanced EW systems (Shipovnik-Aero, Pole-21) on the northern axis to degrade UA ISR/C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Assault Tactics: Continued employment of small (8-10 personnel) well-equipped assault groups, supported by intense preparatory fires, to breach defensive lines. Motorized assaults using motorcycles have been observed near Pokrovsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Long-Range Strike Capabilities: Demonstrated use of Iskander-M missiles (Sloviansk, Odesa, Bryansk), Kinzhal missiles (Chernihiv), and Shahed drones (Odesa, Poltava, Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv) to target military infrastructure, C2 nodes, energy infrastructure, and civilian areas deep within Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Security Operations: Intensified "filtration measures" in Crimea and internal security operations in occupied Luhansk Oblast, suggesting efforts to suppress dissent and uncover sabotage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Intentions:
  • Consolidate and Advance in Donbas: RF's primary objective remains the capture and consolidation of territory in Donetsk Oblast, particularly Chasiv Yar and the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka axis, aiming to establish a more defensible line or create a tactical breakthrough. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Degrade Ukrainian Combat Effectiveness: Continued targeting of UA C2 (UAV control points), logistics (ammunition depots, transport enterprises, fuel arteries), and high-value Western equipment (M109, Caesar SPG) aims to reduce UA's ability to sustain operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Deep Strike and Disrupt Ukraine's Rear: Sustained missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure (energy, logistics, industrial) aim to inflict economic damage, degrade morale, and create internal pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Fix UA Forces in Northern Sectors: Increased DRG activity and EW deployment in Sumy/Kharkiv/Chernihiv likely serve to fix UA reserves in these areas, preventing their redeployment to the more active Donbas front. There is an ongoing intelligence gap on whether this is a feint or shaping for a larger incursion. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
  • Information Warfare/PSYOPs: Actively engaged in blame-shifting (Kramatorsk strikes), discrediting UA (deserters in Kharkiv, inability to purchase weapons), and controlling narratives around diplomatic events (Trump-Zelenskyy meeting, Putin's proposals). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Courses of Action (Enemy MLCOA/MDCOA provided in Section 5).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Increased Glide Bomb Use (Chasiv Yar): Shift from intermittent to sustained FAB-500 bombardment as a preparatory measure for ground assaults. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Advanced EW Deployment (Northern Axis): First-time confirmed deployment of Shipovnik-Aero and Pole-21 systems, significantly altering the electronic battlespace for UA UAV operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Focus on Fuel Logistics: Explicit targeting of "AFU fuel arteries" in Izmail (Odesa Oblast) and resumption of Druzhba pipeline operations after UA strikes, indicating an adaptive response to UA deep strikes on RF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Combined ISR-Strike (RF): Use of ZALA UAV for reconnaissance linked with Iskander strikes to target UA long-range UAV launch sites in Bryansk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Tactical Mobility in Mud: RF forces observed using ATVs in muddy conditions, indicating adaptation to challenging terrain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Internal Security Focus: Increased "filtration measures" and intelligence operations in occupied territories to identify and neutralize perceived threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• RF Logistics:
  • Fuel: RF continues to transport fuel via rail, as evidenced by UA strikes on a fuel cistern train near Tokmak. The successful repair and resumption of oil flow through the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary suggests a rapid response capability to logistical disruptions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ammunition: Continued heavy expenditure of artillery shells and missiles, suggesting adequate supply at present. Evidence of ammunition vehicles being targeted by UA (Pokrovsk direction). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Personnel & Equipment: High claimed daily losses (UA claims 890-1010 RF personnel liquidated/day) suggest ongoing attrition. Appeals for donations for drones and Starlink from RF units (7th Airborne Division in Zaporizhzhia) indicate localized equipment and communication deficiencies. RF is patenting a combined van for delivering food to military personnel, suggesting efforts to improve frontline sustainment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UA Logistics:
  • Fuel: Ukrainian drone strikes on RF fuel infrastructure (Druzhba pipeline, fuel cistern train) demonstrate UA's intent and capability to disrupt RF logistics. RF targets UA "fuel arteries" in Izmail, indicating UA's reliance on these routes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Equipment/Resupply: UA forces in Pokrovsk are actively resupplying with purchased vehicles. UA claims significant drone deliveries (905 drones in two days). UA Ministry of Defense launched a unified platform for armament manufacturers, indicating efforts to bolster domestic production. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ammunition: Continued successful strikes (e.g., 9 direct hits by STRIX unit, artillery destroying RF equipment) suggest adequate ammunition supply for current operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• RF C2:
  • Centralized Control: RF MoD continues to issue daily summaries and claims of "liberations," indicating centralized command messaging.
  • Targeting UA C2: RF is actively targeting UA UAV control points (e.g., near Dymytrov/Myrnohrad), suggesting an understanding of UA's decentralized drone-based operations and attempts to degrade their C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Coordination: Apparent coordination between ISR assets (ZALA UAV) and strike platforms (Iskander) in deep strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UA C2:
  • Decentralized Drone Operations: UA continues to leverage tactical groups and brigades (e.g., "SKALA," "Hartsuz," "Predators of the Heights," "Khartia," "Roniny," "YOKAI GROUP") for effective drone reconnaissance and strikes, indicating decentralized C2 structures are enabling agile responses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Information Sharing: Rapid dissemination of information by UA official sources (General Staff, OVA heads, Air Force) indicating effective internal communication channels. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Counter-DRG Operations: Successful counter-DRG operations near Pokrovsk indicate effective local intelligence and rapid response capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Defensive Posture: UA maintains a defensive posture in key areas like Chasiv Yar, executing tactical withdrawals to prepared positions. Fortification efforts are ongoing (e.g., preparation of secondary defensive lines west of Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Counter-Offensive Actions: Localized counter-offensive successes reported in Dobropillya-Pokrovsk axis (UA 93rd Brigade clearing Hruzke and Vesele, 1st Azov Corps clearing multiple settlements, SKALA Regiment offensive on Dnipropetrovsk-Donetsk border). UA forces are expanding their buffer zone in the Sumy region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• High Attrition Rates: UA reports high RF personnel losses (890-1010 per day), indicating effective engagement and attrition. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Drone Integration: High level of drone integration for ISR, direct strikes, and logistical disruption. Delivery of 905 drones in two days suggests a robust supply chain and operational demand. UA Ministry of Defense launched a unified platform for armament manufacturers, indicating focus on domestic production. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Psychological and Physical Readiness: Ongoing military training, including obstacle courses for psychological and physical preparation, indicates efforts to maintain high troop readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Resilience and Adaptability: UA forces are demonstrating resilience in repelling assaults (Azov in Katerynivka) and adapting to RF tactics (e.g., motorcycle assaults near Pokrovsk). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Air Defense: Active air defense operations reported in Zaporizhzhia and Odesa. UA Southern Defense Forces claim 24 Shahed UAVs destroyed. Naval Forces of Ukraine reports destroying 5 Shaheds overnight. However, RF claims successful strikes on German IRIS-T SLM and a UA radio point in Odesa, indicating vulnerabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Long-Range Strike Capabilities: Confirmed launch of "Flamingo" cruise missile production by UA, indicating development of indigenous long-range strike capabilities. Successful drone strikes on RF oil refinery, seaport, gunpowder workshop, and oil pumping station deep in RF territory demonstrate current capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:
  • UA 93rd Brigade cleared Hruzke and Vesele (Dobropillya area), capturing RF prisoner. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA 1st Azov Corps cleared Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA Azov Brigade repelled powerful RF attack in Katerynivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA Regiment "SKALA" conducted successful offensive on administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA counter-DRG operations near Pokrovsk successful. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA drone operators inflicted significant damage on RF vehicles, personnel, and infrastructure across multiple sectors (Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Kinburn Spit). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA interdiction of RF logistics: destruction of fuel cistern train near Tokmak, temporary suspension of Druzhba oil pipeline. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA forces expanding buffer zone in Sumy region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Successful downing of 88 (UA claim) or 61 (previous UA claim) enemy UAVs by UA Air Defense. Naval Forces claim 5 Shaheds destroyed overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Setbacks:
  • Tactical withdrawal of UA units to prepared defensive positions in Chasiv Yar, conceding ground in eastern Kanal microdistrict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Loss of a UA M109 Paladin and a French CAESAR SPG to RF FPV/Lancet strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Significant casualties and infrastructure damage from RF missile/drone strikes on civilian areas (Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Odesa, Pavlohrad, Nikopol). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF claims to have entered Sobolevka in Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF claims destruction of a UA M577 command post vehicle in Sumy Oblast and a UA radio point in Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF claims to have destroyed a German IRIS-T SLM air defense system position in Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Requirements:
  • Air Defense Systems: Urgent need for mobile air defense assets to counter the pervasive glide bomb and missile threat, particularly in Chasiv Yar and major cities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Counter-EW Capabilities: Immediate deployment of specialized counter-EW teams and assets to the northern axis to mitigate the impact of new RF EW systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ISR Assets: Continued requirement for robust ISR capabilities to monitor RF force dispositions, especially on the northern border, and to support targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Western Military Aid: Zelenskyy proposed purchasing $90 billion in US weapons (aircraft, air defense systems). Continued and reliable Western military aid remains critical. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Constraints:
  • Air Defense Capacity: Despite successful interceptions, the sheer volume of RF missile and drone attacks (140 drones, 4 ballistic missiles overnight) poses a significant challenge to air defense resources. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Fatigue/Casualties: Continued high attrition rates among both sides place a strain on personnel resources. Evacuation of civilians (52,000 from Dnipropetrovsk) indicates demographic and social strain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Civilian Infrastructure Damage: Widespread damage to energy, transport, and residential infrastructure diverts resources for repair and humanitarian aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• Russian Narratives (RF Source):
  • Blame Shifting: TASS claims Kyiv is preparing strikes on Kramatorsk, blaming Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Undermining UA Morale/Credibility: Claims of critical situation with deserters in UA 57th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade in Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS claims UA will not be able to purchase $90B in weapons. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports Azarov claims Zelenskyy will prevent peace. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Legitimizing Annexed Territories: RF map presented by Colonelcassad with Trump discussing negotiations against a map showing "new Russian regions and Crimea." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Scapegoating: Law enforcement agencies claim UA occupation of parts of Kursk Oblast was due to embezzlement during fortification construction, aiming to deflect blame for military setbacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Distorting Diplomatic Outcomes: RF sources frame Trump-Zelenskyy meeting as beneficial to RF, claiming Trump believes Putin agreed to security guarantees for Ukraine and that territory exchange is necessary. RF portrays Trump as understanding Putin's demands and being open to ending the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Dehumanization of UA: Alex Parker Returns' graphic video of a "corpse" coming to life in a body exchange is a graphic and likely fabricated attempt to demonize Ukrainian forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Exaggerated RF Successes: Claims of "series of successes" in Siversk and Severodonetsk. Exaggerated claims of RF/UA killed personnel exchange (19 RF / 1000 UA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Portraying Western Weakness/Manipulation: China Daily editorial (TASS source) claims US pressures Ukraine/Europe to soften negotiating positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Glorifying RF Military/Leadership: TASS reports Putin congratulating Russian Geographical Society. Videos showing RF medics, drone operators, tank crews, and special forces operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Ukrainian Narratives (UA Source):
  • Highlighting RF Losses: General Staff reports consistent high RF personnel losses (890-1010 per day). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Showcasing UA Effectiveness: Videos of successful drone strikes, counter-DRG operations, and clearance operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Drawing Attention to Civilian Suffering: Extensive documentation of damage and casualties from RF strikes on civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Reinforcing Resilience and Unity: Messages about military training, humanitarian aid, and commemorating fallen defenders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Exposing RF Weaknesses/Atrocities: Reports of RF military shooting civilians, and RF forces marauding in border villages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Highlighting International Support: Emphasis on diplomatic meetings and proposed military aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Focus on Territorial Integrity: Zelenskyy stated impossibility of surrendering territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Showcasing Indigenous Production: Confirmation of "Flamingo" cruise missile production. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukrainian Public Sentiment:
  • Resilience and Determination: Public engagement with war content, continued calls for donations, and public commemorations (Minute of Silence in Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia) indicate a sustained level of resolve. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Impact of Strikes: Civilian casualties, mass evacuations, and infrastructure damage from RF strikes are undoubtedly impacting morale, necessitating immediate humanitarian responses and conveying the cost of war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Trust in Leadership: Official reports from Zelenskyy and regional administrations aim to maintain public trust. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Russian Public Sentiment:
  • Information Control: Heavy censorship and state propaganda shape public perception. Efforts to normalize life in occupied territories (exhibition in Donetsk) and highlight domestic improvements (polyclinic, ice palace in Bryansk) aim to boost morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Support for Military: Appeals for donations for military equipment and videos featuring soldiers' families aim to foster public support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Domestic Issues: Reports on pensions, housing, and crime are aimed at domestic audiences and may influence public sentiment on internal governance, potentially affecting mobilization efforts if poorly managed. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • External Threats: Constant reporting on UA drone attacks on Russian territory aims to galvanize public support against an external threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• US-Ukraine-Europe Diplomatic Engagement:
  • High-Level Meetings: Zelenskyy met Trump and European leaders in Washington. This signifies continued Western diplomatic engagement, though outcomes regarding concrete aid and peace terms remain complex. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Differing Views on Peace: Trump's statements on willingness to end the conflict quickly, not requiring a ceasefire, and discussions of territory exchange based on current front lines, introduce uncertainty and potential divergence from Ukraine's stated goals. His emphasis on Europe as "first line of defense" and selling weapons rather than giving them is a new variable. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Security Guarantees: Discussions ongoing about security guarantees for Ukraine, with a proposal similar to NATO Article 5 and non-European country participation. Zelenskyy expects formulation within 7-10 days. NATO Secretary General Rutte confirms an "irreversible path" to NATO but no immediate membership. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Arms Deals: Zelenskyy confirmed a proposed $90 billion arms deal with the US, including aircraft and air defense. Rutte confirmed continued US arms supplies via NATO countries. RF information operations attempting to discredit UA's ability to secure this funding are ongoing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • POW Exchange: Trump expresses confidence in releasing over a thousand POWs soon. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Future Meetings: Virtual follow-up meeting planned. Macron proposes a four-way meeting. Putin reportedly proposed a bilateral meeting with Zelenskyy in Moscow during his call with Trump. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• International Reactions to Conflict:
  • EU Sanctions: EU leaders discussed strengthening sanctions against Russia if the conflict continues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Law/Humanitarian Concerns: Ursula von der Leyen's statement on abducted children highlights international focus on war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Black Sea Security: Romania's desire to expand joint Black Sea patrolling with Bulgaria and Turkey indicates regional concerns about maritime security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Diplomatic Activity: Putin has engaged with nine foreign leaders since the Alaska summit, indicating active efforts to shape international relations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• MLCOA 1: Continued Consolidation and Incremental Advance in Donbas. RF forces will continue their focus on consolidating gains and conducting incremental, battalion-sized mechanized assaults in Chasiv Yar and along the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka axis. This will be supported by heavy and sustained FAB glide bomb usage to suppress UA defenses, and increased FPV/Lancet drone operations for tactical strikes. The objective is to secure key tactical terrain and logistics hubs in Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Indicators: Sustained high-volume of FAB-500 launches, continued localized mechanized assaults, increased RF drone activity over Donbas, RF claims of minor territorial gains.
• MLCOA 2: Sustained Deep Strike Campaign on Ukrainian Infrastructure. RF will continue its long-range missile and Shahed drone attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, transport nodes, and military-industrial facilities, particularly in Odesa, Poltava, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. These strikes aim to degrade Ukraine's economic capacity, logistical flow, and public morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Indicators: Continued air raid alerts in central and southern Ukraine, confirmed hits on energy/transport infrastructure, reports of power outages and civilian casualties in urban areas.
• MLCOA 3: Hybrid Operations on Northern Border. RF will maintain and likely intensify low-level probing, reconnaissance-in-force, and DRG activity along the Sumy-Chernihiv-Kharkiv border. The newly deployed advanced EW systems will be actively used to blind UA ISR. These operations will serve as a feint to fix UA reserves and prevent their redeployment south, while simultaneously gathering intelligence on UA defenses for potential future larger-scale incursions. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
  • Indicators: Continued reports of DRG engagements, increased EW signatures, more frequent cross-border shelling, and RF claims of "improved tactical positions" in border areas.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• MDCOA 1: Major Breakthrough in Donetsk Oblast leading to Operational Encirclement. RF could achieve a significant operational breakthrough on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka axis, potentially cutting off key Ukrainian GLOCs and threatening the operational encirclement of UA forces in that sector. This would involve committing larger, previously unobserved reserves and a coordinated multi-axis push. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
  • Indicators: Rapid RF advances (5+ km in 24-48 hours), collapse of multiple UA defensive lines, large-scale mechanized assaults with high-intensity fire support, reports of significant UA unit withdrawals.
• MDCOA 2: Full-Scale Ground Incursion on Northern Axis. RF could launch a battalion or brigade-sized ground incursion from the northern border (Sumy/Kharkiv/Chernihiv), aimed at drawing substantial UA forces away from the Donbas or seizing key border towns. This would be preceded by heavy artillery preparation and extensive EW. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • Indicators: Massing of RF ground forces near the border, significant increase in cross-border artillery/MLRS fire and large-scale EW activity, direct ground assaults involving multiple company or battalion tactical groups.
• MDCOA 3: Strategic Disruption via Targeted Infrastructure Collapse. RF could execute a highly coordinated series of strikes designed to systematically collapse key Ukrainian national infrastructure (e.g., nationwide power grid, critical transportation arteries, major C2 nodes), aiming to induce widespread societal panic and paralyze Ukraine's war effort. This would likely involve a surge in diverse missile and drone types. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • Indicators: Simultaneous, sustained, and geographically dispersed attacks on multiple, interconnected critical infrastructure targets, major disruptions to national services (power, internet, transport), and a significant escalation in RF cyber operations.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Chasiv Yar/Donetsk Axis:
  • Timeline: Next 24-72 hours. RF will likely sustain current pressure, attempting to consolidate and expand the Kanal foothold.
  • Decision Point: UA High Command decision on committing additional reserves to stabilize the Chasiv Yar defense line or preparing for deeper defensive withdrawals if the canal line is breached.
• Northern Axis (Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv):
  • Timeline: Next 48-96 hours for continued probing and EW activity. Potential for a larger raid within the next week.
  • Decision Point: UA decision on pre-positioning additional dedicated counter-EW assets and hardening defensive positions in response to observed EW and DRG activity.
• Deep Strike Operations:
  • Timeline: Ongoing, with high probability of continued strikes over the next 24-48 hours, especially in response to UA deep strikes.
  • Decision Point: UA decision on strategic deployment of mobile air defense units to mitigate drone and missile threats, prioritizing key economic and military targets.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

• Intelligence Gap 1: Definitive intent and scale of RF Northern Grouping activity. (Previous Secondary, now Primary focus for northern axis).
  • Collection Requirement 1.1: Increased HUMINT collection along RF border areas to identify troop movements, equipment staging, and unit intentions. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
  • Collection Requirement 1.2: Enhanced ISR (SIGINT, IMINT, OSINT cross-referencing) on RF EW systems' precise locations, operational ranges, and capabilities to develop effective countermeasures. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
• Intelligence Gap 2: Status and composition of RF second-echelon forces capable of exploiting a breakthrough in Donetsk Oblast. (Previous Secondary).
  • Collection Requirement 2.1: Continued IMINT and SIGINT on RF logistics hubs and training grounds in occupied territories and western Russia to identify force generation and deployment patterns. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
  • Collection Requirement 2.2: Analysis of RF social media and open-source military blogs for indications of unit readiness and deployment. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM)
• Intelligence Gap 3: Current effectiveness and resilience of UA air defense systems, especially against Iskander and Kinzhal missile variants, and layered drone attacks.
  • Collection Requirement 3.1: Post-strike BDA to accurately assess RF missile/drone effectiveness and UA air defense performance. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
  • Collection Requirement 3.2: Technical intelligence on RF missile and drone navigation and guidance systems to inform countermeasure development. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM)
• Intelligence Gap 4: Assessment of RF's ability to reconstitute fuel and ammunition stocks following recent UA deep strikes (Druzhba pipeline, Tokmak train).
  • Collection Requirement 4.1: Satellite imagery and open-source monitoring of RF oil and gas infrastructure, rail lines, and military depots. (PRIORITY: HIGH)

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

• To UA Ground Forces Command (Chasiv Yar/Donetsk Axis):
  • Action: Immediately allocate additional mobile anti-air capabilities (e.g., MANPADS, short-range AD systems) to front-line units in Chasiv Yar to counter FAB glide bomb threats. (PRIORITY: CRITICAL)
  • Action: Direct FPV and strike drone units to prioritize targeting RF assault groups and their immediate support elements (e.g., ATVs in mud) as they attempt to consolidate positions in the Kanal microdistrict. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
  • Action: Expedite and reinforce the construction of secondary defensive lines west of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal, integrating anti-tank obstacles and prepared fire positions. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
• To UA Air Force / Air Defense Command:
  • Action: Intensify efforts to detect and neutralize reconnaissance UAVs (e.g., ZALA, Forpost) in border regions and over key operational areas to deny RF ISR. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
  • Action: Implement dynamic air defense posture shifts based on predicted RF launch patterns and target priorities, particularly in Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
  • Action: Prioritize the acquisition and deployment of advanced counter-EW systems to the northern border, specifically designed to counter Shipovnik-Aero and Pole-21. (PRIORITY: CRITICAL)
• To UA Special Operations Forces (SSO) / GUR:
  • Action: Increase deep strike operations against RF logistics hubs, fuel depots, and transport infrastructure within RF territory and occupied zones, especially targeting railway lines and fuel storage facilities. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
  • Action: Conduct aggressive counter-DRG operations along the northern border, utilizing specialized reconnaissance and rapid response units. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
• To UA Logistics Command:
  • Action: Conduct rapid damage assessments of infrastructure hit by RF strikes (e.g., Pavlohrad transport enterprise, Odesa fuel arteries) and prioritize repair efforts to maintain critical supply lines. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
  • Action: Accelerate domestic drone production and procurement from international partners, prioritizing FPV and ISR platforms. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
• To UA Strategic Communications / Ministry of Defense:
  • Action: Counter RF disinformation narratives regarding UA deserters and inability to purchase weapons by immediately releasing verified casualty figures, showcasing successful equipment deliveries, and providing transparent updates on Western aid. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
  • Action: Leverage successful deep strike operations on RF territory to bolster domestic morale and demonstrate UA's reach and capabilities. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM)