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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-08-19 10:45:31Z
6 months ago
Previous (2025-08-19 10:15:20Z)

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 191041Z AUG 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

  • Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske Axis): RF forces maintain a confirmed foothold in the eastern Kanal microdistrict of Chasiv Yar, continuing battalion-sized mechanized assaults. UA units executed tactical withdrawal to prepared defensive positions west of the initial line of contact. Clashes persist near Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, Oleksandra-Kalynove, and Pleschiyivka. UA 93rd Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" successfully cleared and took control of Hruzke and Vesele near Dobropillya, capturing an RF prisoner, indicating localized UA counter-offensive success and stabilization in the Dobropillya area. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and towards Bondarne in the Kramatorsk direction, as well as Bila Hora and Chasiv Yar. Rybar (RF source) animated maps indicate Russian advances around Chasov Yar and Katerinovka, with pushes towards Konstantinovka and along the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal, suggesting continued RF focus on consolidating and expanding territorial gains. OSUV "Dnipro" states Russians have occupied two settlements in Donetsk Oblast (unnamed). RF MoD reports Russian artillery destroyed a mortar and a UA UAV control point, likely in Donetsk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) and Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) videos show Azov Brigade successfully repelling a powerful enemy attack and preventing consolidation in Katerynivka, Toretsk direction. This contradicts previous RF claims of gains and indicates effective UA defensive action. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts new video showing drones "clearing strongholds" and covering "our assault teams" in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. RF sources (RBC-Ukraine) report explosions in occupied Donetsk, with complaints of unknown drone attacks. ASTRA (UA source) reports explosions and a subsequent fire in Donetsk, citing local residents. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue in Donetsk Oblast. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) has posted multiple photo messages that appear to be maps or operational summaries of activity in the Siversk direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts new video showing 93rd Mechanized Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" conducting clearance operations of the village of Vesele in the Dobropillya area, supported by tanks and multiple ground robotic systems equipped with machine guns. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video footage of the 85th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (OMCBR) operating on the Soledar direction, showing drone footage of a wooded area with debris and smoke from impacts, and a destroyed trench system. Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) claims RF 36th OA forces (37th OMCBR, 336th Marine Brigade) are likely to force UA to abandon Maliyivka and are advancing from Shevchenko to Yanvarske, though with limited success. STERNENKO (UA source) posts new video showing the destruction of an enemy vehicle with ammunition in the Pokrovsk direction by "Predators of the Heights" tactical group. The video shows an aerial perspective of a vehicle targeted by a drone, resulting in explosions and a significant fire ("fire show"), confirming successful UA drone strike. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UA source) posts a photo message claiming "successfully demobilized" RF personnel. Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) posts video claiming destruction of a UA 2S1 Self-Propelled Howitzer near Konstantinovka. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Predtechyne, Oleksandro-Shultyne and Bila Hora in Kramatorsk direction. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) photo message indicates UA forces are having success in several directions in Donetsk Oblast, specifically listing Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz cleared by elements of the 1st Azov Corps. This directly contradicts prior RF claims of gains and confirms UA regaining territory. ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA (RF source) posts a strategic overview map of the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya direction. Воин DV (RF source) video shows drone footage of engagements on the South-Donetsk direction by the 57th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, depicting successful strikes on RF positions, equipment, and personnel. A photo message from "Сливочный каприз" (RF source) indicates current RF claimed positions between Dobropillya and Zolotyi Kolodyaz. Colonelcassad (RF source) has provided a photo message with no caption. TASS reports that RF forces struck UA units with FAB bombs in Myrnohrad and Ivanpillia, DNR. MoD Russia video shows aerial footage of an urban area, with multiple large explosions and plumes of smoke, indicating ongoing shelling or airstrikes in Donetsk People's Republic. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows a drone strike on a Russian motorcyclist in the Kurakhove direction. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims the assault on Konstantinovka has begun. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UA source) video, captured from a thermal imaging perspective, shows what appears to be a ground vehicle or personnel moving across an open field, with an explosion occurring in the vicinity of the target. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetropavsk and Donetsk Oblasts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video shows the 425th Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video showing captured Russian soldiers providing testimony confirms UA success. An Iskander-M missile strike has been reported in Sloviansk. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a photo message claiming RF forces are advancing on the Konstantinovka direction. Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) posts a video showing a BM-21 Grad MLRS firing and subsequent aerial footage of strikes on damaged buildings, claiming it is the 238th Artillery Brigade supporting the offensive. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts photo message and a map of the Druzhkivka/Konstantinovka directions. Підрозділ Shadow (UA source) video shows drone strike on RF positions, including thermal imaging confirmation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) photo message from "Mad'yar" claims Ukraine has completely destroyed the "Druzhba" oil pipeline. DeepState (UA Source) reports map has been updated. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts photo messages of the Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports a KAB-250 strike with UMPK on AFU infrastructure near Rayskoe. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows an aerial view of a damaged building, likely in a conflict zone, with an explosion targeting the structure. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video provides an aerial view of a damaged train station building and surrounding railway infrastructure in Pokrovsk. The building shows significant signs of destruction, indicating it has been subjected to heavy shelling or bombing. The damage implies potential disruption to transportation and logistics. Colonelcassad (RF source) posted two videos of combat operations in Donbas, featuring drone footage of military targets and engagements, including armored vehicles (BTR, BBM), a communications antenna, and a dugout. This confirms ongoing high-intensity combat with diverse aerial assets employed. Colonelcassad has released new video showing "Adsky Krik" drone operators from the 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment, 5th Army, "Vostok" Group of Forces, destroying enemy armored vehicles, manpower, and drones in the South-Donetsk direction. TASS reports that RF MoD claims Southern Grouping fighters destroyed a platoon of "Kholodnyi Yar" militants. Latest RF reporting indicates renewed strikes on Sloviansk. РБК-Україна (UA source) video shows the aftermath of an RF Iskander-M missile strike on Sloviansk, with significant damage to civilian buildings, impacting public morale and requiring immediate humanitarian response. TASS reports a robotic platform of the AFU was destroyed near Konstantinovka, DNR. МоD Russia (RF source) video shows a T-80BVM tank crew from the 'Tsentr' Group eliminating a UA stronghold in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) posts a video claiming "Annihilation of a UAV control point of the AFU in Dimitrov" (likely Dymytriv/Myrnohrad), showing drone footage of a dilapidated building complex. Операция Z (RF source) video shows combat footage from a first-person perspective, likely from a drone or vehicle-mounted camera, showing strikes on an "enemy BMP" and "enemy cover/shelter" near Pokrovsk. TASS (RF source) video shows artillery of the Southern Grouping destroying UA firing positions in Donetsk. Басурин о главном (RF source) video shows drone strike on RF positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovskoe Direction): UA sources report a critical "lack of infantry." RF claims a "big breakthrough" and liberation of Iskra in DNR. RF forces have reportedly broken through into Zolotyi Kolodyaz, with ongoing fighting, and advanced up to 1.5km towards Sokil from Ocheretyne, threatening a key Ukrainian GLOC. UA sources report stabilization and successful destruction of enemy elements, and Ukrainian paratroopers clearing Pokrovsk of Russian DRGs. UA forces repelled enemy near Rubizhne, Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Vesele, Vilne, Shakhove, Nykanorivka, and Sukhetske. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Poltavka, Volodymyrivka, Fedorivka, Novoekonomichne, Rodynske, Sukhetske, Promin, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Udachne, Dachne, Novoukrayinka, Lysivka, Nykanorivka and towards Filiya in the Pokrovsk direction. Main Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reports successful UA advances for the second consecutive day in Dobropillya and Pokrovsk directions, despite challenges. RF sources are consistently reporting heavy fighting and "destruction" of UA equipment/personal near Pokrovsk. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts photos and video confirming successful UA counter-DRG operations near Pokrovsk. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video of the 425th Regiment "SKALA" showing captured Russian soldiers providing testimony on their unit movements and lack of support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports an attempted assault on Pokrovsk by RF forces utilizing motorcycles. TASS reports that an officer of the press center of the RF 'Vostok' grouping, Aleksei Yakovlev, stated their units have advanced into enemy defenses in Ivankiv, Poltavka, and Zeleny Gay. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted multiple photo messages summarizing the General Staff's report. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Pokrovsk direction as of 18 AUG 25. TASS reports that the National Guard of Ukraine is relocating some units from Kharkiv Oblast to the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. TASS reports that Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi recognized the situation as difficult along the entire contact line, especially in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) posts aerial video of military activity in Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk area. РБК-Україна reports Commander Syrskyi commenting on RF forces near Dobropillya, stating "instead of 'forward, victory' - 'encirclement, end'," suggesting effective UA defense or counter-offensive actions. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) posts thermal imaging video claiming to show RF rocket artillery striking enemy strongholds in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UA source) reports liberation of Zolotyi Kolodyaz and Petrivka in Donetsk Oblast, supported by video evidence of soldiers and captured prisoners, directly countering RF claims of gains. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Poltavka, Vilne, Nove Shakhove, Zapovidne, Novoekonomichne, Myrolubivka, Novoukrayinka, Lysivka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne and towards Volodymyrivka, Rodynske, Chervone Lymanu, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Molodetske in the Pokrovsk direction. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) provides a new General Staff update confirming that UA forces, including the 1st Azov Corps (ZSOU and NGU), have cleared the settlements of Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz in Donetsk Oblast. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA Source) reports on an RF military individual having shot a civilian in the Pokrovsk direction. MoD Russia (RF source) claims flamethrowers from the Tsentr Group wiped out a UA stronghold near Krasnoarmeysk. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports an RF military individual shot a civilian in Rodynske, Pokrovsk direction. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) video claims to show "Rubicon" breaking Ukrainian defenses near Krasnoarmeysk. Филолог в засаде (RF source) posted a video requesting donations for a "night bird" (likely DJI Mavic 3T) for artillery reconnaissance on the Pokrovskoe direction. Сливочный каприз (RF source) provided a photo message of their claimed positions between Dobropillya and Kucherov Yar as of 18 Aug 25. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports intense fighting for Udachne and Pervoye Maya. TASS reports that RF forces gained high tempo advance on Donetsk front, and will soon liberate Krasnoarmeysk and Konstantinovka. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) appeals for donations for "motorized rifle units and special forces" that are "actively advancing." Multiple sources confirm a large map of Ukraine was displayed in the Oval Office during the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) and STERNENKO (UA source) post photo messages of the large map of Ukraine in the Oval Office. Rybar (RF source) posts a tactical map for the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd direction as of 18 AUG 25. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video message showing intense fighting and "holding key heights" on the Dobropillya direction. The video appears to be drone footage showing engagements between opposing forces, including vehicles being targeted and destroyed (BBM, "Baba-Yaga" drone, relay station, truck). This confirms ongoing high-intensity combat. Операция Z (RF source) video shows "Otvazhnye" burning a UA stronghold near Pokrovsk using "Tosochka" (TOS-1A). Rybar (RF source) video provides tactical analysis of "pocket" near Alekseevka and fighting for Udachnoe, indicating active combat and RF analytical focus on these areas. Сливочный каприз (RF source) photo message with caption "18.08.25 Krasnoarmeysk - Poltavka" provides an RF claimed tactical map of the Pokrovsk direction, which can be cross-referenced with UA reports of the fighting. A new RF claimed tactical map for the Pokrovsk direction as of 19 AUG 25, captioned "Krasnoarmeysk - Mayak," indicates continued RF focus on this axis. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) video shows RF rocket artillery strikes in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, confirming continued RF fire support for offensive operations. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video shows Ukrainian drone operators "sending occupiers to demobilization" in the Pokrovsk direction, showing footage of enemy movement and casualties and highlighting the effectiveness of the 414th UAV Brigade "Birds of Madyar." Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Dorozhnye, Fedorivka, Nykanorivka, Mayak, Rodynske, Novoekonomichne, Chervonyy Lyman, Promin, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Molodetske, Novoukrayinka, Chunyshyne, Volodymyrivka, Dachne, Lysivka and towards Balahan. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UA reports capture of an RF prisoner from 150th Division by Azov units, and significant RF losses in Azov's areas. Mandatory evacuation of families with children in Druzhkivka suggests anticipated RF advances or increased threat. Closure of Ukrposhta branches in Konstantinovka from August 19 further indicates increasing threat to this logistics hub. Clashes reported near Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, Oleksandra-Kalynove, and Pleschiyivka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Pleschiyivka, Stepanivka, Yablunivka and Rusyn Yar in the Toretsk direction. STERNENKO (UA source) reports that Phoenix UAS tactical group is "cutting Russian logistics" in the Konstantinovka direction. Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) claims RF 4th OMCBR continues to attack towards Delievka – Aleksandro-Shulgino and attempts to break through and consolidate in Belaya Gora. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Toretsk, Scherbynivka and towards Oleksandro-Shultyne, Pleschiyivka, Rusyn Yar in thetsk direction, as well as Poltavka and Berestok. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Luhansk Oblast (Siversk Direction): RF forces report combat operations with drone-guided artillery and ATGM teams. RF MoD claims destruction of AFU stronghold in Krasny Liman direction. RF aims to advance 2 km to close a "fire bag" for AFU in Kremensky forests. Russian forces reportedly broke through Ukrainian defense lines in the Lyman district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Serebryanka, Siversk, Vyyimka, Fedorivka, Pereyizne and towards Siversk in the Siversk direction. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Kolodezi in Donetsk People's Republic (Luhansk direction). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 63rd Brigade utilizing three FPV drones to neutralize a Russian tank threatening Ukrainian positions east of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast. RF MoD confirms liberation of Kolodezi and Voronoye. Colonelcassad reports on mobile fire groups operating in Belgorod Oblast and Luhansk People's Republic. TASS reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including foreign mercenaries, suffered 4,500 personnel losses in the past week on the Luhansk People's Republic borders, with the Southern Group of Forces inflicting the most damage. TASS claims that Kyiv has struck Lisichansk, LPR, more than 10 times in the past week, resulting in civilian casualties. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Luhansk direction as of 18 AUG 25. Сливочный каприз (RF source) posts a summary of combat operations between August 14-17, 2025, which likely includes the Luhansk direction. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Fedorivka and Vyyimka in the Siversk direction, as well as Serebrianka and Vyimka. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) has provided a photo message of a tactical map for the Siversk direction. Mash na Donbasse reports over 1000 residents of Kamyshnoye and Gerasimovka without power due to a severe fire in LPR. Сливочный каприз (RF source) photo messages with caption "19.08.25 Siversk - Vyyemka" provides RF claimed tactical map of the Siversk direction. Сливочный каприз (RF source) video demonstrates active combat operations in the Siversk direction, including drone strikes on enemy positions and personnel, confirming ongoing high-intensity engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): Sustained RF artillery and FPV drone attacks on Nikopol and surrounding communities. RF claims control of all settlements at the junction of DNR and Dnipropetropavsk Oblast after liberation of Iskra. Extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Nikopol confirmed. Ballistic missile strike on outskirts of Dnipro confirmed with damage to civilian property. Overnight drone attack on Pokrovska community, Synelnykivskyi district, caused fires at agricultural enterprises. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Voronoye in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetropavsk Regional State Administration) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopolshchyna. A ballistic missile threat on Synelnykove and a high-speed target from the east on Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Explosions were heard in Pavlohrad. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports destruction of a UA T-72 tank by an FPV drone in Ivanivka, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected near Pavlohrad, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a drone (UAV) threat to Pavlohrad. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "powerful explosions" in Pavlohrad. TASS (RF source) claims UA forces in Iskra, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, killed an elderly female civilian. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropropetrovsk Regional State Administration) reports that RF struck Pavlohrad with a missile overnight, causing a fire. Воин DV (RF source) video footage from an aerial platform with thermal imaging, focused on a wooded area on the border of Dnipropetropavsk Oblast and DNR, targeting what appears to be personnel or equipment. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces struck Pavlohrad Repair and Mechanical Plant and Technical Equipment Plant. MoD Russia (RF source) video of servicemen from the Vostok Group of Forces describing the liberation of Iskra in Donetsk People's Republic. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) posts a UA UAV attacked a gas station in Yenakiieve, DNR. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports that UA forces inflicted a successful strike on a gas station in Yenakiieve. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports a substation hit by a "Geran" drone in Mezhove, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video of a burning power substation in Mezhove, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetropavsk Regional State Administration) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol, Marhanets, and Pokrovske communities throughout the day. Photos show damaged civilian buildings. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetropavsk and Donetsk Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of strike UAVs in eastern Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, heading towards Pavlohrad. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 1 "moped" (Shahed) heading towards Dnipro. UA Air Defense reports 7 enemy UAVs shot down over Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. ASTRA (UA source) reports one person injured after Russian attacks in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports the "SKALA" Regiment conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetropavsk and Donetsk Oblasts, confirming UA tactical gains. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) video claims destruction of a French "Caesar" self-propelled howitzer and an ammunition vehicle in the Dnipropetropavsk border region by "Vostok" Group of Forces, signaling continued RF focus on Western-supplied artillery. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video depicts a large building complex engulfed in flames and thick black smoke after overnight Shahed attacks in the Synelnykove district. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a photo message showing a tactical map for the Dnipropetrovsk direction. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in eastern Dnipropetrovsk. Colonelcassad (RF source) video shows a Lancet strike on a French CAESAR SPG in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkivskyi District): UA Air Force alerts for high-speed targets and KAB launches. RF claims improved position near Krasny Perviy, controlling ~6 km of road to Dvorechnaya. A substantial increase (estimated 40%) in Russian EW emissions has been detected in the Kharkiv sector, primarily targeting Ukrainian reconnaissance UAVs and degrading ISR capabilities. Continued RF reconnaissance UAVs in northern and eastern Kharkiv Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Khatnye and Fyholivka in the South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction, and also Hlyboke, Kamyanka, Ambarne. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 4 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes in the past day. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. РБК-Україна reports 11 casualties in Kharkiv from recent RF attack. Олег Синєгубов, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, reports 3 additional casualties, bringing total to 11. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates the 11 casualties. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration (UA source), provided multiple photo messages showing damaged civilian residential buildings. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "continuing to pound Kharkiv" with "powerful explosions." РБК-Україна reports an explosion heard in Kharkiv. Mayor Igor Terekhov confirms "Shahed" hits in Industrialnyi district. Oleg Syniehubov confirms two casualties (25-year-old male, 79-year-old female) from drone strike. Subsequent reports from Oleg Syniehubov indicate 10-year-old boy, 19-year-old girl, 46-year-old male, and 47-year-old female hospitalized. Mayor Igor Terekhov reports one fatality and five injured. Kharkiv now reports four fatalities (up from three), including a one-year-old child and a 55-year-old woman, and 17 injured (including 6 children). Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) reports 5 people are currently missing. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and РБК-УкраїНА (UA source) have released additional video footage showing the ongoing search and rescue operation. ASTRA (UA source) has released photos and a drone video showing the extensive destruction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports on the drone attack on a residential high-rise. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА reports a 16-year-old boy became the fourth victim. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports five fatalities. STERNENKO (UA source) corroborates five fatalities. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates five fatalities. Север.Реалії (UA source) reports at least four fatalities. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) reports enemy strikes on Kharkiv and 10 settlements. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports five fatalities and at least 30 injured. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) reports the number of injured has increased to 20. ASTRA (UA source) also reports 30 injured. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts video and photo messages of the aftermath. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) declares August 18 a day of mourning. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports the number of injured has increased to 20. ASTRA (UA source) reports the number of fatalities has increased to 6. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) confirms 6 fatalities. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts an informational message. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the number of fatalities has risen to 7. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates 7 fatalities. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) also confirms 7 fatalities. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts video of border guards liquidating 5 enemy targets. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and Рыбарь (RF source) both post video of a military convoy with RF and US flags. ASTRA (UA source) posts video of a Russian attack on Kharkiv from the city's mayor. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video of Kharkiv mayor showing morning Shahed strikes. РБК-УкраїНА (UA source) posts video of Kharkiv mayor showing the moment of a Russian strike. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts video of Kharkiv, claiming "Tests continue. Be good!". ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing the moment of an RF strike on a residential building. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video showing medics attempting to resuscitate a small child. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, reports an additional three people sought medical attention, bringing total to 23. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts multiple photo messages indicating effective UA drone reconnaissance by the 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade. Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) has provided a photo message warning of fire danger. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on northern Kharkiv Oblast. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 24 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes last week. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video footage of a series of impacts in Kharkiv. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports that "Khartia" drones successfully located and struck an RF camp in Kharkiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts three photo messages depicting a battle map of the Kharkiv direction. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) posts a photo message celebrating Ukrainian leadership. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video showing civilian structures being transported by trucks at night. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a video of a formal gathering of international dignitaries, including Zelenskyy and Trump. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows drone operators of the 3rd Assault Brigade dropping munitions on RF in Kharkiv Oblast. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast is under bomb strike and threat of strike UAVs. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports RF KAB strikes on Ruska Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows 3rd Assault Brigade drone operators striking RF positions in Kharkiv Oblast while peace talks are ongoing. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast under bomb strike and UAV threat. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. A high-speed target is moving through Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast, likely a cruise missile. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Another high-speed target reported in Kharkiv Oblast, same course. UA sources report 4 missiles from Kharkiv Oblast now over Poltava Oblast, heading towards Kremenchuk. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 16 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast sustained enemy strikes yesterday. TASS reports RF forces struck two UA locations in Khatnye and Chuhunivka, Kharkiv Oblast. Олексій Білошицький (UA source) video confirms ongoing rescue operations and significant damage in Kharkiv following drone strikes, highlighting continued RF attacks on civilian infrastructure. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a photo of a multi-story residential building in Kharkiv, extensively damaged, implying a successful RF strike. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports a Russian serviceman will be tried in Kharkiv Oblast for shooting Ukrainian soldiers at the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the new commander of the 13th NGU Brigade "Khartia" is Major Daniel "Cuba" Kitone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Chernihiv Oblast: UA Air Force alerts for enemy reconnaissance UAVs, high-speed targets, and threat of strike UAVs. "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on a forward Ukrainian command post in Birino area confirmed. Ballistic missile impact in Honcharivske reported. RF claims destruction of a foreign mercenary legion's base. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Krasnyy Khutir of Chernihiv region, and Polushkyne, Karabany. Colonelcassad reports Kinzhal strike near Desna and Geran/Gerbera strikes near Semenivka (Chernihiv Oblast). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV threat to Brovary and Boryspil districts in Kyiv Oblast and a UAV threat to Kyiv. Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy UAVs on northern Chernihiv Oblast and in the Pryluky area. НгП раZVедка (RF source) claims "Geran" drones are "drilling" Chernihiv Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports enemy UAVs attacked Kyiv Oblast overnight, damaging a hangar in Boryspil district. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Chernihiv Oblast. MoD Russia (RF source) video claiming Geran-2 UAVs hit AFU special forces units of GUR near Zhadovo, Chernihiv region, and also an AFU forward command post near Birino. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UA source) reports UAVs in central Chernihiv Oblast near Pryluky. Операция Z (RF source) posts video claiming Geran strikes hit GUR special forces in Chernihiv. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy strike UAV on northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. UA Air Force reports a UAV threat in Chernihiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces struck a training center in Chernihiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for Chernihiv Oblast has been lifted. Latest UA Air Force reports an enemy UAV on Chernihiv Oblast. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports that RF drones attacked Chernihiv Oblast this morning, causing power outages in some settlements, confirming continued RF drone activity in the area and immediate civilian impact. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) corroborates that parts of Chernihiv Oblast are without electricity after the morning UAV attack, further confirming the immediate civilian impact. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports reconnaissance UAV activity in Chernihiv Oblast with interception measures engaged. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kherson Oblast (Left Bank Dnieper): UA reports destruction of an RF ammunition depot and four vehicles on the left bank. RF claims Lancet strike destroyed US M-777 howitzer and Ukrainian Bogdana SPG on right bank. Ukrainian Navy radio intercepts confirm loss of Russian Su-30SM fighter jet southeast of Snake Island. UA forces repelled 4-6 Russian army assaults. UA source claims reconnaissance units entered "Novaya Kakhovka" on the Kherson direction and are shelling enemy defenses. Southern Ukraine Defense Forces report continued strikes on enemy deployment areas, fire positions, and rear areas in the southern operational zone. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports strikes on Khadzhibeevka and Usatove (Odesa region), specifically targeting "marine BECs" and a 330kv power substation. TASS (RF source) claims that the "Kyiv-appointed" administration of Kherson has long since left the city and is operating remotely from Mykolaiv. TASS reports that the AFU lost a Starlink satellite communication station and 17 UAV control points in the zone of responsibility of the 'Vostok' grouping in the past 24 hours. Два майора (RF source) posts thermal imaging footage claiming to show activity in Kherson at night. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) provides operational information for the Southern Defense Forces. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Kherson direction as of 18 AUG 25. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction, and also clashes near Antonivsky bridge, Dniprovske, and near Bilohrudyy island. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of explosions and vehicle activity in the Kherson direction. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows artillerymen of the 49th Army hitting fortifications on the right bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson region. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) photo message provides operational information for the Southern Defense Forces as of 08:00 19 AUG 25, indicating continued UA monitoring and defense in the southern operational zone. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) photo message with caption "⚡️⚡️Сили оборони Півдня України продовжують уражати місця дислокації ворога, його вогневі позиції та тили." confirms ongoing UA deep strikes and counter-battery fire in the Southern operational zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Odesa Oblast: STERNENKO reports groups of strike UAVs in the north and near Odesa Oblast. РБК-Україна reports an alert from Odesa Oblast Military Administration calling residents to shelters due to strike UAVs. STERNENKO reports Odesa is under a massive "Shahed" drone attack, with explosions heard. Николаевский Ванёк reports reduction in drone numbers near Odesa. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports continued drone threats in Velyka Balka-Nerubaiske and Radisne-Velykyi Dalnyk (Odesa Oblast). ASTRA reports a large fire in Odesa after a massive Shahed strike. Операция Z (RF source) posts multiple photo and video messages reporting "powerful strikes on enemy objects in Odesa, fires in the city." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports that RF drones struck a Nova Poshta terminal in Odesa. Дневник Десантника (RF source) claims that their strike UAVs hit "several objects" in Odesa overnight. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна (UA source) confirm an RF drone strike on a fuel and energy infrastructure object and a two-story building in the suburbs of Odesa. ASTRA reports a fire on a fuel and energy infrastructure object in Odesa Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) reports Odesa was attacked by Shaheds all night. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video of the aftermath of strikes on an alleged SOCAR oil depot in Odesa Oblast. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims Geran drones destroyed a "giant fuel terminal" of SOCAR. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) reports 24 Shahed UAVs destroyed by Southern Defense Forces. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a map/graphic titled "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine August 17 - August 18, 2025," which likely includes Odesa. Colonelcassad also posts video of an explosion with "kurs_odessa" watermark. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video claiming a massive Shahed attack on SOCAR oil depot in Odesa Oblast. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims "Azerbaijani fuel tanks extinguished." Colonelcassad (RF source) comments that overnight strikes in Odesa targeted Nova Poshta objects and SOCAR. Два майора (RF source) posts video of significant damage to industrial or storage tanks in Odesa. Colonelcassad (RF source) also posts video showing the aftermath of attacks on SOCAR in Odesa. Операция Z (RF source) provides photos of a large fire, likely in Odesa. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows a significant fire at the SOCAR oil depot. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts photos showing a large fire at the SOCAR oil depot in Odesa. Kotsnews (RF source) posts videos confirming significant damage and fires. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) also posts video of the aftermath of the SOCAR oil depot strike. Два майора (RF source) has posted a photo message regarding Romania's desire to expand joint Black Sea patrolling with Bulgaria and Turkey. Colonelcassad (RF source) provides a summary of strikes. WarGonzo (RF source) posted videos showing the aftermath of the SOCAR strike in Odesa. STERNENKO video shows aerial footage likely from a drone, observing an area with what appear to be defensive positions or fortifications. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha reacting to the RF strike on the SOCAR oil depot. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile arrival in Dobroslav. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target on Odesa Oblast, heading northwest. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video shows multiple plumes of black smoke rising from various urban locations, likely Odesa, implying significant fires/explosions. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports the SBU uncovered an RF military intelligence agent group that coordinated shelling of Kyiv and carried out sabotage in Odesa Oblast. This indicates continued RF attempts at covert action in the region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RF claims destruction of AFU ammunition depot. 578 RF strikes on 14 settlements over past day. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and also near Novoandriyivka in Orikhiv direction, and Prymorske, Novoandriyivka. A 64-year-old man was wounded in a hostile attack on Polohivskyi district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Tolstoy, Komyshuvakha, Zelene Pole, Maliyivka, Myrne, Zaporizhzhke, Olhivske in the Novopavlivka direction, and also near Kamyanske and Novoandriyivka in the Orikhiv direction, as well as Zirka, Vilne Pole, Voskresenka, Shevchenko, Novodarivka, Olhivske, Novopil, Zelene Pole, Maliyivka, Shevchenko and towards Oleksandrohrad and Komyshuvakha. Colonelcassad reports VKC and missile forces conducted strikes on targets in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація reports air raid alert over. An air raid alert has been declared in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and has since been lifted. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) has re-declared an air raid alert. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of aviation weapons use. UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia district. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports the air raid alert has been lifted. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) has re-declared an air raid alert. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports ballistic missile activity towards Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target towards Zaporizhzhia. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports an explosion in Zaporizhzhia. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Zaporizhzhia is under ballistic missile attack. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports a second ballistic missile. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports a third explosion. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports repeated explosions. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports RF is attempting to strike critical infrastructure. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) corroborates RF attempts to strike critical infrastructure. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) confirms RF strikes on Zaporizhzhia, with two impacts and an increase in injured persons to four. РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborates two strikes. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the ballistic missile threat has been lifted. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports four injured. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) also reports four injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports that 6 people, two in serious condition, have been hospitalized. ASTRA (UA source) also reports 6 injured. РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborates increasing casualties. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts photos from the State Emergency Service. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports 7 injured. ASTRA (UA source) reports 17 injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) confirms 17 injured. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) also reports 17 injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) posts photos showing damage. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Syrskyi stating Russia is concentrating troops and planning a large-scale offensive. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) posts video showing firefighters and emergency personnel clearing debris. STERNENKO (UA source) posts video of significant damage. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Zelenyy Hay, Tolstoy, Oleksandrohrad, Voskresenka, Maliyivka, Vilne Pole and Temyrivka in the Novopavlivka direction. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Novoandriyivka in the Orikhiv direction. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA) reports a man rescued from debris has died. РБК-Україна (UA) corroborates the death. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA) reports air raid alert lifted. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports 3 dead and 18 injured from the morning attack. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports 23 people, injured by the enemy attack, are receiving medical assistance. РБК-Україна (UA) corroborates 23 injured. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) corroborates 23 injured. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates 23 injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) posts video showing the aftermath of the missile strike. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a video appealing for donations for drones and Starlink. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) posts photos showing the 44th Separate Artillery Brigade "Bogdana" successfully destroying enemy equipment. ASTRA (UA source) reports on an RF M113 APC with RF and US flags operating in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Два майора (RF source) posted a video claimed to be a tank strike in the Lukyanovskoe area of Zaporizhzhia. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports an increase in the number of injured persons to 27. РБК-Україна (UA) reports the number of injured has risen to 24. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) states that the Commander-in-Chief's statement about enemy intent to break through the Zaporizhzhia front and advance deep into Ukrainian territory was not new to them. Два майора (RF source) posted a drone video from the Zaporizhzhia front. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the number of injured in Zaporizhzhia increased to 30. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports 30 injured. ASTRA (UA source) reports 30 injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports Zaporizhzhia Oblast is a leader in drone procurement. ASTRA (UA source) reports up to 30 injured. Photos confirm significant damage to residential buildings. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports an air raid alert declared. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of ballistic weapons. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports the number of injured has increased to 33. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) declares an air raid alert. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UA source) reports a threat of ballistic weapons use. Два майора (RF source) reports on current combat activity on the Zaporizhzhia front. The air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a video appealing for donations. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video showing RF forces striking a UA tank in a wooded area near Lukyanovskoe, Zaporizhzhia direction. The video appears to be FPV drone footage, showing the drone's telemetry and a Russian watermark, indicating RF drone activity. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 3 dead and 33 injured in Zaporizhzhia from yesterday's enemy attack. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a "Minute of Silence" video, signifying continued mourning for casualties in Zaporizhzhia. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) video shows two RF servicemen from the 7th Airborne Division appealing for donations for drones and Starlink, suggesting ongoing logistical needs in the Zaporizhzhia direction. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has released a video confirming significant damage to civilian infrastructure, including residential and private buildings, and updated casualty figures to 3 fatalities and 34 injured after a Russian missile strike around 0900Z. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 video features officials discussing fire safety measures and environmental conditions in the Zaporizhzhia region, confirming increased fire risk and air quality issues due to ongoing conflict. A ballistic missile threat has been declared for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Воин DV (RF source) video shows 57th Motorized Rifle Brigade "Vostok" destroying enemy material and technical means, including Starlink terminals, in Zaporizhzhia. This confirms RF targeting of UA communication infrastructure and continued operations by this unit. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and РБК-Україна (UA source) report that a train with cisterns was blown up between Urozhaine and Tokmak in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, impacting RF logistics. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video and photos confirm a successful drone strike by the "Roniny" battalion of the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade's unmanned systems battalion on an RF train with fuel cisterns and military ordnance near Molochansk (Tokmak direction). This confirms continued UA interdiction of RF logistics. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) photos corroborate the destruction of a railway depot with fuel near Tokmak, indicating a successful UA strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kupyansk Axis: Previous reports indicated a decisive shift of RF main effort with the capture of Ivanivka. RF continues strikes on settlements. UA reports successful tank sorties and drone operations against RF personnel and equipment. Commander of "Achilles" Regiment Fedorenko (UA source) reports RF plans to occupy Kupyansk by August 24. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports the first mechanized attack by RF on the left bank of Kupyansk in a long time. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Kupyansk direction as of 18 AUG 25. STERNENKO (UA source) reports that 905 drones has been delivered to the Defense Forces in the last two days. Николаевский Ванёк reports a new "singing" RF prisoner was taken under Muravka, Donetsk Oblast, identified as Vladimir Sergeevich from the 35th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. TASS reports the head of Kharkiv VGA Ganchev claims Russian forces are encircling Kupyansk. Воин DV (RF source) video shows aerial footage of an ongoing military engagement impacting a rural or semi-rural landscape, with multiple explosions visible, confirming continued RF operations near Novosyolovka in the Kupyansk direction. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Holubivka, Kupyansk, Petropavlivka, Moskovka and Zahryzove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Sumy Oblast: РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian forces actively destroying the enemy in Sumy Oblast, pushing back Russians near Oleksiivka and Yunakivka. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of a destroyed UA M577 command post vehicle in Sumy Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing an RF truck with ammunition epically destroyed by a Ukrainian drone on the way to Sumy Oblast. TASS reports that RF forces have improved their tactical position near Yunakovka, Sumy Oblast. Операция Z (RF source) thermal imagery video claims successful destruction of UA armored vehicles by Spetsnaz "Anvar" and VDV units supporting an offensive on Sumy. РБК-Україна reports a 57-year-old woman injured by a KAB strike on Novoslobidska community, Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new UAVs on northern Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports a missile strike on Sumy. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted photo messages confirming a missile strike on an educational institution. НгП раZVедка (RF source) posts a mocking caption suggesting RF strikes or activity in Shostka. RF reconnaissance UAVs are operating near Putyvl. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Sumy. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports a series of explosions. Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 new RF UAVs detected east of Bilopillya. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports continued RF attacks on Sumy. Colonelcassad shares video footage from the 68th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th Army, Western Military District. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs. UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs. TASS (RF source) claims that Ukrainian Armed Forces command in Sumy Oblast has committed all resources to outflank RF forces in Yunakivka. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video showing two individuals in a wooded area with abandoned cars and a quad bike, claiming it depicts RF forces marauding in border villages of Kursk Oblast. Kotsnews (RF source) posts video with caption "Syrsky: Kursk - best result among all major operations," which is an RF information operation. MoD Russia (RF source) video claiming a BM-21 Grad MLRS crew eliminated a manpower cluster. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts video of a Lancet loitering munition preparation and strike. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, with 7 repelled assaults. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University. РБК-Україна (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University. Alex Parker Returns (RF) claims the Sumy State University was hit by a "Flamingo missile." Два майора (RF source) posts video showing an RF FPV drone strike. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy strike UAV on northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. RF activity on the Sumy direction, with an aerial view of an exploding vehicle. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) asserts that RF forces have been defeated in Sumy Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a video of drone-guided artillery or air strikes. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) amplifies Syrsky's (misquoted) statements. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts a photo message showing activity on the Eastern Direction. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports a severe injury to an RF General in Kursk Oblast from a HIMARS strike. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video from local residents showing a visual confirmation of RF "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on Sumy State University. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAV threat. TASS (RF source) reports RF military expert Yan Gagin claiming AFU unsuccessfully counterattack. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows Uragan MLRS crews eliminating AFU armored vehicles. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows T-80BVM tanks of the Sever Group of Forces eliminating AFU hardware. RF has again attacked civilian infrastructure in Sumy. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast moving south. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of enemy UAVs on the north, east, and south of Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. An explosion was heard in Sumy. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Sumy Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UA source) video indicates UA forces are expanding their buffer zone in the Sumy region. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) video shows two individuals in a wooded area, likely RF personnel, but content is general and not highly specific to Sumy operations. STERNENKO (UA source) posts a photo message with incendiary content, implying attacks on Russian border regions, which is a PSYOP. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat from the northeast. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts a photo message showing a battlefield map for the Sumy direction, indicating active counterattacks by VSU and the use of SU-27 fighter jets for strikes on RF positions. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Hirky of Sumy region. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in central Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Poltava Oblast: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Poltava Oblast moving towards Myrhorod. An enemy UAV is heading south from northern Sumy Oblast towards Poltava Oblast. РБК-Україна reports Poltava and its community are without electricity. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of enemy UAVs on the north, east, and south of Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. Groups of strike UAVs reported moving towards Kremenchuk from east and north. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in Poltava Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. Explosions reported in Lubny. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports approximately 12 "mopeds" (Shahed drones) heading towards/through Kremenchuk, with two waves. Nikolaevskiy Vanek confirms 7 "mopeds" (Shahed drones) from the first and second waves are currently heading towards Kremenchuk. ASTRA reports a large number of explosions in Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast, following attacks on Lubny. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 ballistic missiles targeting Kremenchuk, aimed at energy infrastructure. Николаевский Ванёк reports that "mopeds" heading to Kremenchuk are currently "minus," indicating successful interception or re-routing. UA Air Force confirms cruise missiles heading for Kremenchuk. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 5 missiles are approaching Kremenchuk. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports "minus" on the missiles for Kremenchuk, indicating successful interception or re-routing. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that RF forces attacked Poltava Oblast overnight, and provides a photo of fire aftermath at the Kremenchuk oil refinery. Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA sources) report a massive overnight attack on Poltava Oblast by the enemy, as stated by the OVA. ASTRA (UA source) reports Russia massively attacked Poltava Oblast, causing power problems, citing local authorities. WarGonzo (RF source) photo messages confirm RF attacks on energy objects in Kremenchuk. РБК-Україна (UA source) photo message shows dense black smoke from Kremenchuk. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video confirms burning Azerbaijani oil tanks in Kremenchuk. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) video claims dozens of "Geraniums" struck targets in Poltava Oblast, including gas transportation system facilities and the local oil refinery, confirming the attack's scope. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows the aftermath of a "terrorist attack" on Kremenchuk, with a large plume of dark smoke, confirming significant damage and ongoing civilian impact. ASTRA (UA source) videos and photos confirm extensive smoke over Kremenchuk after a "massive Russian attack," substantiating the environmental and infrastructure damage. Два майора (RF source) photo messages and text confirm the aftermath of overnight strikes on Kremenchuk, including a large smoke plume, confirming successful RF targeting from their perspective. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video and photo messages confirm significant smoke over Kremenchuk in the morning, further verifying the scale of the attack and its impact. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports on unexploded cluster munitions from Russian missiles found in Kremenchuk after the attack, indicating a severe civilian threat. Север.Реалии (UA source) photo and video messages confirm RF strikes on Kremenchuk and a fire at the local oil refinery. Военкор Котенок (RF source) videos confirm significant smoke plumes over Kremenchuk oil refinery, confirming the attack. STERNENKO (UA source) photo message confirms unexploded cluster munitions were found in Kremenchuk. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports that multiple RF drones attacked a gas transportation system facility in Poltava Oblast overnight, citing the Ministry of Energy. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video titled "Night of fear in Kremenchuk" depicts a large explosion and subsequent fire with a significant smoke plume, confirming substantial damage. Kotsnews (RF source) reports that the supply of Russian oil through the "Druzhba" pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia was suspended due to Ukrainian UAV attacks. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) video confirms RF forces destroyed Kremenchuk Oil Refinery. Два майора (RF source) video also confirms strike on Kremenchuk Oil Refinery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kyiv Oblast: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports a car explosion in Podilskyi district, Kyiv. STERNENKO (UA source) posts photos of the car explosion. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) provides multiple photo messages of a fire incident. Операция Z (RF source) posts video claiming "Ukrainian partisans" blew up a military vehicle. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports on a scheme to launder over 160 million UAH. Multiple photos and videos from KMVA show a large fire at a multi-story building. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports enemy UAVs attacked Kyiv Oblast overnight, damaging a hangar in Boryspil district. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV threat to Brovary and Boryspil districts in Kyiv Oblast and a UAV threat to Kyiv. Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy UAVs on northern Chernihiv Oblast and in the Pryluky area. НгП раZVедка (RF source) claims "Geran" drones are "drilling" Chernihiv Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports enemy UAVs attacked Kyiv Oblast overnight, damaging a hangar in Boryspil district. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts photo messages featuring soldiers from the 21st separate mechanized brigade. Николаевский Ванёк reports on a preliminary meeting regarding a terrorist act in Mykolaiv. The Presidential Brigade of Ukraine (UA source) posted a video showing a successful drone strike on two Russian soldiers and their motorcycle. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts a video of a Ukrainian soldier sitting amongst destroyed buildings. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports an air raid alert in Kyiv due to the takeoff of a Russian MiG-31K. РБК-Україна (UA source) confirms the air raid alert. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) confirms the air raid alert. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) confirms the MiG-31K in the air. РБК-Україна (UA source) provides a map. STERNENKO (UA source) also confirms the MiG-31K takeoff. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat of MiG-31K has been lifted. An enemy strike UAV in Kyiv Oblast heading towards Brovary. KMVA reports an air raid alert in Kyiv due to the threat of ballistic weapons. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat of ballistic weapons has been lifted. The air raid alert in Kyiv has been lifted. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) and Оперативний ЗСУ (UA sources) posts a "Minute of Silence" photo message, indicating continued solemn commemoration in Kyiv for fallen defenders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Volgograd Oblast (RF): ASTRA reports a large fire in Volgograd after a UAV attack, with the roof of a hospital on the territory of an oil refinery on fire. TASS confirms that air defense forces are repelling a massive UAV attack on Volgograd Oblast and that the roof of a hospital building was on fire due to falling UAV debris, with no casualties reported. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russians complain about an attack of unknown drones in Volgograd, and the regional governor stated that there is a fire on the territory of the oil refinery. TASS reports that temporary restrictions at Volgograd airport have been lifted. Оперативний ЗСУ posts photos showing the aftermath of a UAV attack in Volgograd, specifically mentioning the oil refinery and hospital roof being on fire. Два майора (RF source) confirms drones attacked Volgograd Oblast, with a hospital and an oil refinery territory on fire. STERNENKO (UA source) confirms drones attacked Volgograd Oil Refinery overnight, providing photos. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) photo message confirms "night heating" of Volgograd Oil Refinery. Север.Реалии (UA source) reports a large fire in Volgograd with a hospital and oil refinery territory on fire after a drone attack, confirming significant damage in RF territory. ASTRA reports that the fire in Volgograd at the oil refinery has been extinguished. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Overall Frontline: RF continues employment of FPV drone swarms and Lancet loitering munitions, with a reported 20% increase in Lancet strikes. UA inflicted significant personnel losses (1010 RF personnel in the last 24h, total 276,300 since year start; 890 RF personnel liquidated in the last 24 hours). UA deep strikes into RF territory include the Syzran Oil Refinery (Samara Oblast), Olya seaport (Astrakhan Oblast), the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast, and a drone attack on Azot chemical plant in Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol Krai. 61 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed by UA. Prisoner exchange of 84 servicemen conducted. TASS reports Putin congratulated the Russian Geographical Society on its 180th anniversary. Rybar (RF source) posts a photo message which is likely an analytical overview. TASS reports on cyber activity against Russian organizations. TASS also reports Mikhail Ulyanov stating that the West should provide Russia with the same reliable security guarantees as Ukraine. Операция Z reports that Ukraine fears a verbal altercation between Zelenskyy and Trump. Igor Artamonov (RF source) reports a yellow alert "air danger regime" declared for all of Lipetsk Oblast. TASS quotes a Serbian sniper, Dejan Beric, stating that sniper scouts no longer conduct foot reconnaissance behind enemy lines. ТАСС (RF source) reports a "Carpet" plan has been introduced in Penza Oblast. The "Carpet" plan in Penza Oblast has been canceled. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video message from Sumy Oblast, showing military vehicle movement. TASS reports Polyansky's statement that the settlement process in Ukraine must consider the opinion of 7 million Ukrainians who sought refuge in Russia. Trump claims Zelenskyy can end the conflict by renouncing Crimea and NATO membership. Zelenskiy / Official reports arrival in Washington for meeting with President Trump and European leaders. Rybar (RF source) has posted an analytical overview. Два майора (RF source) also posted a summary of events. TASS reports that the Tambov airport has lifted restrictions. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) and Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) report estimated general combat losses of enemy personnel (+940 in the last 24h) and equipment. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts images of new Chinese anti-ship hypersonic missiles. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy is scheduled for 20:15 Kyiv time. RF MoD claims 23 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF and annexed Crimea overnight. TASS (RF source) and ASTRA (UA source, citing Kremlin media) report that the FSB prevented a second terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge. Kotsnews (RF source) also reports on the thwarted Crimean Bridge attacks. TASS (RF source) reports 20 fatalities at an incident at the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast. Igor Artamonov (RF source) reports a red level UAV attack threat declared for Lipetsk. TASS (RF source) reports the Russian government plans to increase demand for housing. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video footage of sniper pairs of the 299th Yaroslavl Regiment. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) and Два майора (RF source) are amplifying the FSB claims. TASS reports that Zelenskyy is ready to make concessions. WarGonzo and Kotsnews confirm the FSB reports. Басурин о главном (RF source) also amplifies the FSB claim. РБК-Україна reports an explosion of a car painted to look like a military vehicle in Kyiv. Два майора (RF source) posts a video of an APC moving across open terrain. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) posts a photo message advertising a bot. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a series of tactical maps. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts a photo message promoting his channel. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a technical diagram/illustration. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» (UA source) posts a photo message of their brigade emblem. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a video appeal for donations. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Siversk direction. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Southern (Robotyne) direction. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Kherson direction. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Kharkiv direction. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video claiming FSB prevented a second terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge. Рыбарь (RF source) comments on the Crimean Bridge incident. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a photo message of the 210th Assault Regiment pilots at work. Colonelcassad (RF source) comments on the Crimean Bridge incident. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a general warning. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 88 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) also reports 88/140 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed, and 0/4 Iskander-M missiles. РБК-Україна reports RF launched 4 ballistic missiles and 140 drones overnight. ТАСС (RF source) reports the Investigative Committee has qualified Ukraine's attempt to attack the Smolensk NPP as a terrorist act. Север.Реалии (UA source) reports the General Prosecutor's Office recognized a German foundation aiding fascism victims as "undesirable." 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України (UA source) provides a video report on enemy losses. Два майора (RF source) comments on Trump's actions. Рыбарь (RF source) posts on new Chinese military hardware. ASTRA (UA source) reports RF attacked Ukraine with 4 Iskander-M missiles and 140 drones overnight. Операция Z (RF source) amplifies The Guardian's report. Fighterbomber (RF source) mentions a new episode of "333". БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts multiple photo messages with a strong nationalist and anti-Russian message. РБК-Україна reports Syrskyi stating Russia's bravado about fighting for years is unfounded. Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) posts a short overview. STERNENKO (UA source) posts a video of drones hitting enemy logistics and reconnaissance. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a general warning. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) has posted multiple photo messages about the detention of members of a criminal organization in Kyiv and Odesa. Colonelcassad (RF source) confirms 20 fatalities and 134 injured at the Ryazan gunpowder plant explosion. Kotsnews (RF source) posts "Selectivity of Kyiv and volunteers from everywhere." Басурин о главном (RF source) posts on Trump's statements. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) posts on Trump advising Zelenskyy. Igor Artamonov (RF source) reports the cancellation of the "red level" UAV attack threat in Lipetsk. MoD Russia claims an Iskander-M missile system destroyed a cluster of AFU personnel and hardware at a UAV pre-launch site. Два майора (RF source) posts video of civilian volunteers producing 3D-printed FPV anti-air drones. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims Kyiv showed its first "Flamingo" ballistic missile with a range of 3000km. TASS reports on Putin's meeting with the acting governor of Rostov Oblast. TASS (RF source) reports that a Ukrainian MP called for Zelenskyy's arrest. TASS (RF source) reports that 23 bodies have been recovered from the Ryazan gunpowder plant explosion site. TASS (RF source) reports on a phone call between Putin and Indian Prime Minister Modi. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukraine could continue importing gas from Azerbaijan. Operatyvnyi ZSU (UA source) reports that US Vice President Vance will be present at the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborates Vance's presence. Fighterbomber (RF source) posts a video celebrating aviation day. TASS (RF source) reports on a phone call between Putin and Tajik President Rahmon. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted a video confirming the launch of "Flamingo" cruise missile production. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) has posted a photo message regarding a convicted military individual committing murder. Два майора (RF source) has posted a photo message with the caption "🇺🇸45 минут на Зелю🇺🇦." ТАСС (RF source) has provided a video of Tu-95MS strategic bombers performing a planned flight over the Barents Sea. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/TIEDOTТЕЕТ (RF/Disinformation source) has posted a photo message with a quote in Finnish from "Baltic Voice." Операция Z (RF source) has posted a photo message claiming Trump is listening to Putin. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted a photo message regarding details of the "Elastic" plant incident. Операция Z (RF source) has posted a photo message claiming the Ukrainian Foreign Minister responded rudely to Hungary's claims. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "High-precision strikes of the RF Armed Forces on key enemy objects." WarGonzo (RF source) posted a video showing an award ceremony for soldiers of the 44th Army Corps. WarGonzo (RF source) has also posted a photo message claiming North Korean tank crews are preparing for combat in Ukraine. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) reports the evacuation of residents from Olkhivski Dachi near Stanitsia Luhanska. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs launched on Sumy Oblast, northern Kharkiv Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. STERNENKO (UA source) posts video of YOKAI GROUP (UA) shooting down a new Russian V2U UAV. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) reports operational information as of 16:00, 18 AUG 25. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) posts a photo message claiming successful UAV strike on Nikolske oil pumping station in Tambov Oblast, RF. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborate the UA strike on Nikolske oil pumping station. TASS reports Putin and Zhaparov discussed the Alaska summit. TASS reports Putin expressed condolences to Modi for floods. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) posts a video of a mobilized RF soldier calling on United Russia members to go to the front. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts photo message claiming Trump will only meet Zelenskyy. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) amplifies CNN's report. Рыбарь (RF source) posts a photo message, "Nothing personal." Операция Z (RF source) reports Deputy Commander of "Sever" Grouping General Abachev was severely wounded in Kursk Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts video showing drone pilots acting as infantry in combat. Zelenskiy / Official reports video message with General Kellogg. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts video on Zelenskyy sharing details. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts recruitment appeal for assault and reconnaissance units. TASS posts photo message summarizing news. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts a photo message on Trump's statement. TASS reports Lula da Silva acknowledged importance of Putin's info on Alaska summit. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts on a lawsuit. Kotsnews (RF source) provided a video of Zelenskyy arriving in Washington in a t-shirt. Операция Z (RF source) amplified the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sibiga's statement. ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump's intention to end the conflict. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Zelenskyy's statement on European peace. ТАСС (RF source) posted an image described as having a formal setting but content that I am restricted from analyzing. Colonelcassad (RF source) quotes Trump's lengthy social media post. Басурин о главном (RF source) claims heat helps RF fighters evade thermal imagers. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) criticizes Zelenskyy's attire. ТАСС (RF source) again reports Zelenskyy meeting Kellogg without a suit. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) references a 2022 event. MoD Russia (RF source) confirms a Tu-95MS strategic bomber flight. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reported on an RF Z-blogger "Thirteenth" being allegedly captured. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posted the "first footage of the Flamingo cruise missile launch." Два майора (RF source) reports on Ukrainian media "fakes." Операция Z (RF source) repeats the claim that Trump is confident in resolving the war. TASS reports that Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto responded to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Sybiha. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims Zelenskyy stated it's impossible to surrender territories. Colonelcassad (RF source) also amplifies Zelenskyy's statement. TASS reports that the US Permanent Representative to NATO said security guarantees for Ukraine do not necessarily mean the deployment of US troops. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) reports on the electronic summons registry becoming operational. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts photo messages about a "national messenger MAX". WarGonzo posts a video of Governor Solodov of Kamchatka. Colonelcassad posts a photo message with the caption ""Ляля" все. Жалеть не будем." Рыбарь posts an infographic titled "Вечные враги". Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows battlefield drone footage with multiple explosions. Воин DV (RF source) video shows a drone strike on what appears to be a tank. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video shows a captured RF soldier describing his deployment. TASS (RF source) reports European ambassadors in China may boycott a military parade. Rybar (RF source) has posted scanned documents. Rybar (RF source) posts a graphic titled "Delivery Service". ASTRA (UA source) posts photo and video messages showing the launch and alleged combat use of Ukraine's "Flamingo" missile. Басурин о главном (RF source) posts a photo with the caption "Grab your stuff and run!". Kotsnews (RF source) video shows a drone's first-person view. Два майора (RF source) posts photo message claiming US Army is moving to industrial-scale 3D printing. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts an article about Zelenskyy rejecting proposal. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) appeals for donations. DeepState (UA source) announces that the Ministry of Defense launched a unified platform for armament manufacturers. Zelenskiy / Official (UA source) posts a video message emphasizing "reliable and lasting peace." Oleg Syniehubov (UA source) posts the same video message. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports European Commission Head, NATO Secretary General, and UK Prime Minister arrived at the White House. TASS reports the White House asked Zelenskyy to wear a suit. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts videos of European leaders arriving. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Zelenskyy met with European leaders. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (UA source) posts Zelenskyy's video message. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Axios claims Putin allegedly abandoned the demand to control all of Donetsk Oblast. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a photo message claiming one hour left until the meeting. Два майора (RF source) reports Slovakia has stopped receiving Russian oil. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the Ukrainian delegation for the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts a video message discussing the use of a captured AK rifle. Kotsnews (RF source) posts video showing European leaders arriving. ТАСС (RF source) states that any scenario involving NATO military contingents in Ukraine is unacceptable. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts a photo message confirming the Ukrainian delegation's arrival. Два майора (RF source) posts video of aerial support for assault operations. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts a photo message confirming the Ukrainian delegation's arrival. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the President of France has arrived. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts a video of Zelenskyy's statement. STERNENKO (UA source) photo message confirms the Ukrainian delegation's arrival. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts photos of additional European leaders. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) advertises their presence on "MAX". Два майора (RF source) posts photos from Washington. Операция Z (RF source) reports on their source "Revenge of Good Will." Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a derogatory statement about Zelenskyy. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video of RF drone operators from Buryatia operating Mavic 3 Pro drones. ASTRA (UA source) highlights a discrepancy in RF claims about a captured "M113" APC. TASS (RF source) reports that mobilized Ukrainian military personnel are intentionally harming themselves. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts a video claiming "Zelenskyy can destroy agreements." Zelenskyy has arrived at the White House. Ukraine's delegation has arrived at the White House. Colonelcassad claims the Ukrainian delegation brought a map. Trump expressed confidence in tripartite talks. Trump stated the war will end. Trump claimed peace can be agreed during combat operations. Trump said Europe would be the "first line of defense." ASTRA reports Trump stated "Today will either be a deal or no deal. If not, support for Ukraine stops." Zelenskyy stated Ukraine is ready for elections. WarGonzo (RF source) posts a video with derogatory commentary. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows effective drone hunting operations. Олег Синєгубов (UA source) posts a photo message celebrating Ukrainian leadership. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports that Marjorie Taylor Green's husband apologized. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump stated a ceasefire is not being discussed. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video of Trump and Zelenskyy meeting. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video shows Trump stating he, Zelenskyy, and Putin all want the war to end. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump stating Ukraine will not be in NATO but will have security guarantees. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) mocks Zelenskyy's shoes. Kotsnews (RF source) uses derogatory caption. ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump stated ceasefire is not required. Два майора (RF source) reports Trump's statements. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) confirms Trump's statement on NATO. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump open to freezing conflict. ТАСС (RF source) reports Zelenskyy on arms procurement. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump on peace during combat. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reiterates Trump on no ceasefire. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump on selling, not giving, weapons. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump's exaggerated claim of $350bn aid. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump on selling weapons. Colonelcassad (RF source) mocks Zelenskyy's election statement. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump on conditional support. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump on US troops. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump on US troops. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) mocks Zelenskyy's mood. Военкор Котенок (RF source) continues Trump quotes. ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump on NATO. Два майора (RF source) reports Trump on NATO. Операция Z (RF source) also reports Trump on NATO. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump on NATO paying for US weapons. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump on NATO defending Ukraine. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Zelenskyy on strong army. ASTRA (UA source) reports on RF murder suspect gone to war zone. Два майора (RF source) photo message showing European leaders waiting. ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump will call Putin. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump on NATO helping Ukraine. ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump on Europe security guarantees. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump on liking both Ukrainians and Russians. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump on calling Putin. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reiterates Trump on peace. Новости Москвы (RF source) reports Trump on Ukraine not in NATO. Colonelcassad (RF source) video shows journalist questioning Zelenskyy's attire. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump's ambiguity. РБК-Україна (UA source) video of Trump speaking. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video of Trump speaking. ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump on calling Putin. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump on liking Ukrainians and Russians. Два майора (RF source) reports Trump and Zelenskyy gone to closed talks. ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump on liking Ukrainians and Russians. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump on Europe security. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump on Putin's call and tripartite talks. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) confirms journalists out. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) confirms closed meeting. ТАСС (RF source) photo message summarizes Trump statements. РБК-Україна (UA source) video of press leaving. Colonelcassad (RF source) photo message summarizes Trump statements. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) mocks European leaders waiting. Два майора (RF source) video shows Zaporizhzhia front activity. Военкор Котенок (RF source) confirms open meeting ended. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) summarizes Trump statements. Басурин о главном (RF source) photo message summarizes Trump statements. Операция Z (RF source) reports Europe still unaware. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) photo message mocking Zelenskyy's expression. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) video on "classic" strikes. Colonelcassad (RF source) video of full Oval Office meeting. ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump praised Zelenskyy's suit. DeepState (UA source) reports public part of talks ended. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) video of Trump stating Ukraine will not be in NATO. Два майора (RF source) mocking Zelenskyy's reception. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UA source) photo message on RF propaganda. TASS (RF source) reports Richard Black stated he hopes Moscow and Washington can become partners. TASS reports Dmitry Polyansky states Western countries are increasingly reluctant. TASS reports a massive Starlink outage. A joint statement after the closed Trump-Zelenskyy talks has been cancelled. РБК-Україна (UA source) and Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) confirm Trump and Zelenskyy completed their one-on-one meeting and proceeded to a larger meeting. STERNENKO (UA source) confirms the one-hour duration. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts photo message of the start of the joint meeting. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts photo message confirming the start of the joint meeting. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) and Два майора (RF source) post photo messages with derogatory captions. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump stating they are working to stop the killings. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump expressing confidence in a good call with Putin. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump stating he discussed many topics with Zelenskyy. ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump's belief in peace based on the Alaska summit. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump stating Putin agreed to security guarantees for Ukraine. РБК-Україна (UA source) and Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) report Trump's statement about Putin agreeing to security guarantees and the need to discuss territory exchange based on current front lines. ТАСС (RF source) confirms Trump's statement on territory exchange. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows Trump discussing a trilateral meeting to end the war. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump optimistic about an agreement. ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump doesn't believe in the threat of further RF aggression. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump's statement about a trilateral meeting. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump's optimism for an agreement. ТАСС (RF source) reports Zelenskyy discussed security guarantees. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Zelenskyy stating they will discuss territorial issues. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Zelenskyy confirming discussion of sensitive territorial questions. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump's confidence in reaching an agreement. ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump's confidence in a trilateral meeting. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump stating a thousand prisoners of war will be released immediately. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Zelenskyy announced discussions on security guarantees. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows Trump discussing Putin's agreement on security guarantees. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video of Trump commenting on Merz's tan. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump's confidence in reaching all agreements today. Kotsnews (RF source) notes no "breakthrough" yet. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Merz cannot imagine a next meeting without a ceasefire. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump believes RF will no longer attack Ukraine. Рыбарь (RF source) posts summary of August 18. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine has released operational information as of 22:00, 18 AUG 25. Premier of Italy Giorgia Meloni states security talks will start with a proposal similar to NATO Article 5. Keir Starmer (UK PM) calls for reliable security guarantees. Trump states that within a week or two, it will be clear if peace can be achieved. Trump expresses confidence in releasing over a thousand POWs soon. RF MoD has published its #DailyFigure graphic. Macron proposes a four-way meeting. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video of Trump stating Putin wants a deal for him. Два майора (RF source) is conducting a fundraiser for "Frontline armor". КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UA source) posts photo message "Damn clouds". Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports 8 new "mopeds" (Shahed drones) near Dobropillya. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) photo message from "Mad'yar" claims Ukraine has completely destroyed the "Druzhba" oil pipeline. ТАСС (RF source) reports Russian stock market slowed decline. Підрозділ Shadow (UA source) video shows successful drone strike on RF positions. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows 3rd Assault Brigade drone operators striking RF positions. РБК-Україна (UA source) photo message reports Trump and Zelenskyy discussed tripartite meeting first. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump wants to call Putin immediately. Два майора (RF source) video reports no final press conference. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reiterates Trump's desire to call Putin. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAV groups in Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) photo message with a political/propaganda theme. Операция Z (RF source) reports Trump wants to call Putin immediately. РБК-Україна (UA source) photo message claims Defense Forces stopped work of "Druzhba" oil pipeline. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump wants to call Putin while Zelenskyy and European leaders are in White House. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UA source) reports "Ghosts" likely disabled "Around Noise". ASTRA (UA source) photo message of Trump and Zelenskyy. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump and Zelenskyy discussed tripartite meeting first. STERNENKO (UA source) post: "Trump: I'll throw money at the Russos". Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Zaporizhzhia. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts photos from the open part of Trump's multilateral meeting. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump wants to call Putin immediately. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts map of Druzhkivka/Konstantinovka directions. Рыбарь (RF source) posts chronological summary. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) states Putin is the last person who wants the war to end. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports overall drone situation. Операция Z (RF source) posts video of Finnish President stating they found a solution. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast under bomb strike. Kotsnews (RF source) posts on aiding family. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video showing Trump and Zelenskyy meeting. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Zelenskyy will give Fox News interview. РБК-Україна (UA source) photo of Trump and Zelenskyy. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video of Zelenskyy Fox News interview. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) photo message claiming "no too difficult questions". Takeoff of 2x Tu-95MS strategic bombers, indicating potential for new missile launches. RF sources confirm Trump's phone call with Putin and the initiation of preparation for a tripartite meeting. TASS reports Trump, European leaders, and Zelenskyy will hold another virtual meeting on Ukraine after the White House talks, as stated by NATO Secretary General Rutte. Zelenskyy confirmed the FT information regarding an arms deal with the US, and stated that Ukraine proposed to the US to purchase weapons worth $90 billion, including aircraft and air defense systems. Zelenskyy stated he believes they should meet with Putin unconditionally, but the question of territories will be left between him and Putin. Zelenskyy asserts security guarantees for Ukraine are planned to be formulated within 7-10 days. Macron stated EU leaders discussed with Trump strengthening sanctions against Russia if Moscow refuses to end the Ukrainian conflict, and that the West hopes for a trilateral meeting between Russia, USA, and Ukraine soon. Zelenskyy commented on the possibility of a foreign contingent in Ukraine. RF source (Операция Z, referencing Russkaya Vesna) reports Zelenskyy will not insist on a ceasefire as a condition for further negotiations with Russia. Finnish President Stubb states Putin's commitments cause uncertainty and explained why talks with Trump lasted so long. NATO Secretary General Rutte stated there is an irreversible path for Ukraine into NATO, but membership is not currently being discussed. Rutte also stated that arms supplies from the US to Ukraine will continue through NATO countries. Rutte stated the question of Ukrainian territorial concessions was not discussed at the White House meeting. Dmitriev (RF source) called today's discussion on the settlement in Ukraine an important day in diplomacy. TASS reports Putin has spoken with nine foreign leaders, including Trump, in the three days since the Alaska summit, indicating active diplomatic engagement. Rubio states that non-European countries will also participate in formulating and ensuring security guarantees for Ukraine. TASS reports Zelenskyy thanked Trump 11 times in 4.5 minutes according to the Washington Post. Macron states the location for a bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy will be determined in the coming hours. TASS reports that European advisors will work with the US on security guarantees for Ukraine, citing DPA. TASS reports Apty Alaudinov (RF source) stated that Russia's superiority in UAVs allows them to destroy all Ukrainian Armed Forces resources. Operatsiya Z posts historical footage from the Battle of Shumshu, and a memorial ceremony, likely to draw parallels to current conflict. TASS reports Macron's statement considering US willingness to participate in Ukraine's security as progress. ASTRA (UA source) reports that Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, stated: "Every Ukrainian child abducted by Russia must be returned to their families." TASS (RF source) reports that the Ukrainian crisis has become an expensive lesson for Europe, which has every reason to play a more active role in achieving peace, citing the Global Times. TASS (RF source) reports that two civilians were killed in "Crocus" while attempting to prevent attackers from shooting people, according to case materials. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports an additional 890 RF personnel liquidated in the last 24 hours, confirming continued high attrition on the RF side. TASS (RF source) reports 15 fatalities, including a child, and over 140 injured from UA strikes on RF regions over the past week. TASS (RF source) reports 23 UA UAVs were shot down over RF and annexed Crimea overnight, indicating persistent UA deep strike capabilities and RF air defense activity. TASS (RF source) claims UA forces struck major frontline Russian cities prior to the RF-US summit, framing UA actions as provocative and potentially aimed at disrupting diplomatic efforts. Два майора (RF source) posts a summary of the morning's events, indicating continued information dissemination. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts photos claiming that protective gear donated by supporters saved the lives of two RF assault unit soldiers from Buryatia in the "Vostok" Group of Forces, aimed at boosting morale and reinforcing the value of public support for military efforts. РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborates the General Staff's report of 890 RF personnel liquidated in the past 24 hours. RF MoD reports 23 UAVs shot down overnight. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) photo message confirms 890 RF personnel losses in last 24 hours. Рыбарь (RF source) video provides tactical analysis of "pocket" near Alekseevka and fighting for Udachnoe, indicating active combat and RF analytical focus on these areas. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) posts multiple photo messages of operational information as of 08:00 19 AUG 25, including a map and combat losses for RF, confirming active reporting and continued attrition. Воин DV (RF source) video shows 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade operators striking a pickup truck, personnel, and temporary positions in the Vremevsky direction within the 36th Army's AOR. TASS reports a robotic platform of the AFU was destroyed near Konstantinovka, DNR. Fighterbomber (RF source) photo message contains a political statement regarding the US-Ukraine-Europe meeting, reflecting RF narrative about the summit. Colonelcassad (RF source) photo message on Trump discussing negotiations with Putin against a map showing "new Russian regions and Crimea" is a clear RF information operation aiming to legitimize annexed territories. Fighterbomber (RF source) photo message reinforces the RF narrative about the diplomatic meeting. TASS (RF source) reports "Russian Post" was fined for violations related to funds for branch repairs, indicating internal Russian governance issues. Новости Москвы (RF source) reports the average old-age pension in Russia, a domestic social issue. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts a highly propagandistic and inflammatory text on the inevitability of the war. Colonelcassad (RF source) video features an RF serviceman discussing his service and his son's service, and the preparation of FPV drones, aiming to boost morale and highlight family commitment to the military. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) reports 236 enemy targets shot down/suppressed. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports 236/280 enemy targets shot down/suppressed. Военкор Котенок (RF source) reports that 23 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down overnight over Russian territory, stating all were of aircraft type. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports continued activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeastern and southeastern directions. НгП раZVедка (RF source) video provides a summary of strikes on enemy targets, indicating continued RF kinetic operations. Kotsnews (RF source) video shows a damaged building, likely a civilian structure, and military personnel discussing the aftermath of a strike, with the title "Return Home," implying a narrative of liberation or return to normalcy in occupied territory. The footage is framed to evoke sympathy for RF personnel and portray their actions as positive. ТАСС (RF source) reports the Russian government supported the idea of suspending debt collection in "counter-terrorism operation zones and martial law," indicating domestic financial measures to support those affected by the conflict. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) post, "There should be no exchange of territories as part of the agreement on Ukraine," is a strong RF information operation against the idea of territorial concessions by Ukraine. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) photo messages showing a new documentary film are a UA information operation to boost morale and commemorate the conflict. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) photo messages on a "weekly author's column" are an RF information operation, likely providing pro-Kremlin analysis. Fighterbomber (RF source) video about buying bath brooms and branches is non-military and likely a personal advertisement or humorous content. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) photo messages about an obstacle course for psychological adaptation are a UA information operation to highlight troop training and resilience. Два майора (RF source) report on increased EU activity in Moldova, linking it to upcoming parliamentary elections, which is an RF information operation aimed at portraying Western interference in regional politics. Военкор Котенок (RF source) reports on an exhibition in Donetsk, indicating RF efforts to normalize life in occupied territories and promote cultural events. Старше Эдды (RF source) photo message with religious content is a non-military, general social post. Басурин о главном (RF source) photo message, "How sad it is that it takes years for brains to clear," is an RF propaganda message against the West or Ukraine. ТАСС (RF source) reports on souvenirs with Putin and Trump on Alaska, confirming RF information operation and propaganda to leverage the diplomatic event. ТАСС (RF source) photo messages of a T-shirt with Putin and Trump are propaganda. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) photo messages showing Trump with merchandise are propaganda aimed at ridiculing Zelenskyy. ТАСС (RF source) reports on Maria Zakharova's comments, which are part of RF's diplomatic and information warfare. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows 61st Separate Steppe Mechanized Brigade liquidating Russian forces via drone reconnaissance and strikes, confirming continued UA offensive drone capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Melitopol (RF-occupied): TASS video shows former Ukrainian soldiers in Melitopol receiving blessings and laying flowers at a war memorial, indicating an RF information operation aimed at showcasing defection or collaboration and legitimizing RF presence in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Propaganda)
  • Internal RF Social Issues: ASTRA photo and video messages report a family of farmers in Moscow Oblast holding an employee in chains and forcing him to sign a contract with the RF Ministry of Defense to receive payments. This indicates severe internal social issues, potential human rights abuses, and desperate measures to meet military recruitment quotas, impacting RF domestic stability and potentially military morale. ASTRA (UA source) reports a 75-year-old pensioner in Sverdlovsk Oblast was sentenced to 1 year and 2 months suspended for "rehabilitating Nazism" for calling Stalin a "dictator and murderer" in social media comments, indicating tightening internal control and suppression of dissent. Север.Реалии (UA source) reports a postal worker in Kaliningrad Oblast was sentenced to prison for an online comment suggesting "blowing up factories." This indicates severe domestic suppression of dissent and an extremely tight control environment within Russia, directly impacting civil liberties. TASS (RF source) reports a reduced work Thursday for young fathers, which could lead to workplace discrimination. This is an internal social policy discussion, indicating domestic governance focus outside of direct military operations. Север.Реалии (UA source) reports that "Conversations about important things," a program of patriotic education, will be introduced in kindergartens across 22 regions of Russia, indicating deepening indoctrination efforts from an early age. TASS (RF source) confirms that the Russian Ministry of Education has approved the "Conversations about important things" project for kindergartens, which is a significant step in the state's ideological control. Новости Москвы (RF source) reports the "maltipu puppy room" incident reaching the State Duma, indicating public and political attention to internal social issues. TASS reports the government commission approved stripping "foreign agents" of tax benefits, which is a domestic political/legal measure. TASS reports on charges against a blogger for financing extremism, further highlighting domestic legal actions against perceived dissidents. ASTRA also reports on the blogger's case. Новости Москвы reports on proposals for robot taxes, indicating long-term domestic economic discussions. Север.Реалии (UA source) photo message reports that the founder of the Nikita Efremov brand was accused of financing "extremist" activities for donating to the FBK, confirming continued internal suppression of dissent related to financial support for opposition groups. ASTRA (UA source) video reports on a farm in Voronezh Oblast where over a hundred people are allegedly held in slavery, with volunteers freeing five. This is a severe human rights issue indicating deep social problems within RF. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) reports on alleged brutal treatment of children in a military camp. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Gas Infrastructure: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) photo message mentions "strikes on enemy gas infrastructure objects," indicating a new RF targeting priority or an information operation to claim strikes on gas facilities. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports that multiple RF drones attacked a gas transportation system facility in Poltava Oblast overnight, citing the Ministry of Energy, confirming RF targeting of gas infrastructure. Kotsnews (RF source) states that Ukrainian UAV attacks caused the suspension of Russian oil supply through the "Druzhba" pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAV Activity Update: Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports 8 new "mopeds" (Shahed drones) near Dobropillya, indicating continued localized RF drone activity. Colonelcassad (RF source) video shows a successful RF drone strike on a UA ammunition depot and UAV control point near Yastrebinoe, confirming RF capabilities to target key UA logistical and C2 nodes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Naval/Black Sea Security: Kotsnews (RF source) posts on "Germany's rearmament and negotiations in the White House." While the content is not specific, the mention of Germany rearming implies a broad, strategic context that affects Black Sea security dynamics by influencing naval capabilities of NATO members. Два майора (RF source) video titled "Provision of medical care on water at night" shows military personnel engaged in tactical medical procedures on a casualty on the water, highlighting specialized maritime operations, possibly involving special forces or naval infantry. TASS reports an explosion occurred on a cargo ship in Baltimore port in the US, confirmed by the US Coast Guard. While this is external to the immediate conflict zone, it is a significant maritime incident. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Initial rating maintained due to vagueness, but new intelligence adds context)
  • RF Domestic Infrastructure: Новости Москвы (RF source) reports that taxis at airports can now only be ordered via official stands or aggregator apps. This is a domestic administrative measure, unrelated to the conflict, but indicating an attempt at internal control and order. Новости Москвы (RF source) reports traffic restrictions in Red Square due to the "Spasskaya Bashnya" festival. This is a domestic event, unrelated to military operations. Новости Москвы (RF source) reports on a proposal to offer free parking at schools across Russia on September 1st, a domestic social initiative. Новости Москвы (RF source) posts an advertisement for discounted hotel bookings, reflecting a focus on domestic tourism and economic activity. Новости Москвы (RF source) reports on subway construction in Golyаnovo, Moscow, a domestic infrastructure project. TASS (RF source) reports a new street named after Lieutenant General Kirillov in Moscow, indicating domestic commemorative activities. Новости Москвы (RF source) video message showing a woman discussing using AI chatbots to select hotels indicates a focus on consumer technology and domestic leisure, confirming continued internal normalcy messaging. Новости Москвы (RF source) photo message regarding a "U"-shaped multi-functional complex in Bogorodskoye indicates continued domestic urban development and infrastructure projects, unrelated to the conflict. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) reports on a documentary series about Cherkizovsky Market in the 90s, indicating a domestic cultural production. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA Financial Irregularities: Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports that the leadership of a state-owned seaport and a businessman has been notified of suspicion for causing over 8 million UAH in damages to the state. This points to ongoing efforts by UA authorities to combat corruption and maintain rule of law, which can indirectly impact resource allocation for military efforts. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) photo message reports that the Kyiv City Prosecutor's Office prevented the illegal appropriation of the Dnipro embankment in a residential complex, indicating continued legal efforts against corruption. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports SBU and National Police liquidated another draft evasion scheme in Kyiv, finding over 17 million UAH in cash. This highlights continued efforts to combat corruption and strengthen mobilization efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Strikes on UA Military Targets: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF Aerospace Forces destroyed a UA deployment point, UAV repair base, and weapons depot near Druzhkivka. This indicates continued RF targeting of UA military infrastructure and logistics, directly affecting UA operational capabilities. RF MoD reports Russian forces conducted a high-precision strike with weapons and UAVs on an oil refinery supplying fuel to Ukrainian Armed Forces groups, which is a broad claim but indicative of continued targeting. RF MoD confirms a group strike with long-range high-precision weapons and UAVs on an oil refinery supplying fuel to the AFU grouping on Donbas. This is consistent with previous reports and demonstrates continued RF targeting of UA fuel supply chains. Операция Z (RF source) video claims a RF drone strike on a forward UA command post in Chernihiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Avdiivka Sector: Два майора (RF source) provides a video from Avdiivka, featuring a woman in military-style clothing delivering humanitarian aid within a damaged building. While not directly combat-related, it highlights the humanitarian impact in this contested area. The previous daily report indicated the end of the tactical pause and a repelled company-sized assault by the 114th MRB north of Orlivka, with significant enemy losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Recruitment Efforts: Два майора (RF source) video is a recruitment advertisement for the "African Corps" of the Russian Armed Forces, explicitly stating "We are where Russia needs us!" and providing recruitment contacts. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) video features a man complaining that officials are calling people to the front but are unwilling to help military personnel, highlighting potential internal friction within RF recruitment efforts. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts an advertisement for "trauma weapons at low prices," which could indirectly relate to civilian self-defense or even unofficial recruitment/arming, though it's likely a standard commercial advertisement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Diplomatic Events (RF Perspective): TASS reports a trademark application for "Meeting in Alaska" was filed on August 15, the day of the Putin-Trump talks. This indicates RF intends to commercialize or leverage the diplomatic event for internal narrative. TASS reports Lavrov stated a good atmosphere at the RF-US summit and Trump's sincere desire for peace, reflecting RF's narrative control over diplomatic outcomes. TASS reports Lavrov also stated that RF never aimed to acquire Crimea, Donbas, or Novorossiya, but to protect Russian people. This is a clear RF information operation aiming to redefine war aims and legitimize past actions. Lavrov also states that Russia does not refuse any formats on Ukraine, neither bilateral nor trilateral. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims Lavrov's rhetoric is softening. TASS (RF source) reports that the map of Ukraine in the Oval Office demonstrated US support for Russia, a significant RF information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Domestic Politics/Economy: TASS reports a proposal to exempt Russians earning less than 30,000 rubles/month from personal income tax. This highlights domestic economic policy discussions within Russia, likely aimed at addressing social welfare. TASS reports a family of an ex-senator has significant debts, highlighting internal legal and financial issues within Russia. TASS reports an official's statement that advertising non-alcoholic beer still promotes alcohol consumption, a domestic social and health debate. TASS reports on a large fraud case against the founder of "Rusagro," indicating domestic legal issues. TASS reports on the messenger "Max" having 18 million registered users, indicating domestic digital platform usage. Colonelcassad (RF source) implies that authorities' statements are deterring people from using "MAX," suggesting internal political struggles related to digital platforms. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video with "Antifascist Ziganovsky" criticizing financial transparency is an internal Russian social/political commentary, unrelated to military. Военкор Котенок (RF source) reports on a former "leader of the Azerbaijani diaspora" in Chelyabinsk being stripped of Russian citizenship, which is a domestic legal/political event. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Domestic Legal/Security: Kotsnews (RF source) posts about a Russian court allegedly identifying a website hacker, framed as judicial efficiency. This is a domestic law enforcement news item. Рыбарь (RF source) video shows FSB operations, confirming internal security efforts. TASS video reports the FSB in LNR detained a resident of Antratsyt who was cooperating with SBU and preparing an explosion against an RF officer. This highlights ongoing Russian counter-intelligence operations in occupied territories and the continued threat of Ukrainian intelligence activities. TASS reports the Supreme Court upheld the verdict in the case of Berkobich and Petriychuk for "justifying terrorism," indicating tightening legal controls and suppression of dissent. Север.Реалии (UA source) corroborates this report. TASS (RF source) video shows the apprehension of an individual in Starobilsk, LNR, accused of spying for Kyiv and transmitting data on Russian military locations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Moldova Border Incident: Два майора (RF source) posts an image claiming that an attempt to smuggle explosives from Ukraine into Moldova was prevented, which could be an RF information operation aimed at portraying Ukraine as a source of instability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Propaganda)
  • Friendly Force Training: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) posts photos showing UA soldiers training in camouflage techniques, indicating ongoing training and readiness efforts. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) photo messages indicate UA forces are conducting obstacle course training for psychological adaptation to combat. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UA source) photo messages show UA combat vehicles, emphasizing their importance for soldier safety and mission success, indicating ongoing maintenance and operational readiness. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 photo message titled "'Games of the Unbreakable' – 2025: sport, friendship, and unity in Zaporizhzhia" depicts a civilian sports event, likely for veterans or those with disabilities, indicating efforts to support and reintegrate those affected by the conflict. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) posts photos showing fragments of training for Ukrainian military personnel in Great Britain as part of the multinational "Interflex" operation. This confirms continued Western support for UA military training. Олександр Вілкул (UA source) photo messages of "Kryvyi Rih - to the front" suggests ongoing support and mobilization efforts from civilian population. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA Internal Security Operations: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports the SBU uncovered an RF military intelligence agent group that coordinated shelling of Kyiv and carried out sabotage in Odesa Oblast. This indicates successful UA counter-intelligence operations. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports that a Russian serviceman will be tried in Kharkiv Oblast for shooting Ukrainian soldiers at the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant. This highlights UA efforts to hold RF personnel accountable for war crimes. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) photo message claims that after SBU's "Web" operation, Russian strategic aviation launches half as many missiles. This is a UA information operation, likely exaggerating impact, but indicates SBU focus on strategic aviation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Crimea: РБК-Україна (UA source) reports that a rare "Kasta" radar system was destroyed in temporarily occupied Crimea. This indicates a successful UA deep strike operation against a high-value RF target. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Belgorod Oblast (RF): TASS reports that AFU attacked the Church of the Intercession of the Blessed Virgin Mary in Belgorod Oblast, injuring a woman. Additionally, a man was wounded by a UAV attack in Mokra Orlovka village. This indicates continued UA cross-border strikes into RF territory, with reported civilian casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

  • No new significant weather or environmental factors beyond previously noted challenging terrain (mud-covered vehicles), localized forest fires, and strong winds affecting drone operations. The large industrial fires in Syzran and the explosion at the Ryazan gunpowder workshop, and the attack on the Azot chemical plant will generate significant smoke and potential environmental contamination, impacting local air quality and visibility. RF KAB strike on Novoslobidska community, Sumy Oblast, around 22:00, injured a 57-year-old woman, indicating continued localized environmental impact from RF air strikes. The missile strike on Sumy and damage to an educational institution contributes to localized environmental impact. The RF strikes on Odesa targeting a Nova Poshta terminal (logistics/civilian) and a 330kv power substation in Usatove (critical infrastructure) will result in significant localized damage, fire, and potential power outages. The destruction visible in photos from Kharkiv Regional State Administration confirms significant environmental damage in residential areas. Igor Artamonov (RF source) reports a "red level" UAV attack threat declared for the city of Lipetsk and several municipal districts, indicating direct environmental impact from active air defense operations and potential debris fall. This red level threat has since been canceled. TASS (RF source) reports temporary restrictions on flights at Tambov and Penza airports. The "Carpet" plan in Penza Oblast was activated and subsequently cancelled. Renewed Shahed strikes on Kharkiv have caused a fire in a residential building with risk of collapse, increasing humanitarian and environmental impact. The confirmed fatalities (seven) and 23 injured in Kharkiv due to RF drone strikes represents a severe humanitarian impact and will exacerbate environmental concerns due to widespread debris and damaged infrastructure. The missile strike on an educational institution in Sumy further contributes to public anger. Igor Artamonov reports the cancellation of the "yellow level" air danger alert for Lipetsk Oblast. The missile strike on Pavlohrad will cause localized damage and potential environmental contamination. The confirmed 24 fatalities at the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast indicate a severe environmental impact from the UA deep strike, including potential chemical contamination and significant debris. The RF drone strike on a fuel and energy infrastructure object in Odesa suburbs will cause significant localized environmental damage due to fire and potential spills. The explosion of a car in Kyiv, whether accidental or intentional, will contribute to localized environmental impact. The car explosion in Kyiv will cause localized environmental impact. Ballistic missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia will cause localized damage and potential environmental contamination. The impacts in Zaporizhzhia, with two confirmed strikes, indicate localized environmental damage. The severe damage to civilian residential buildings in Kharkiv, including the confirmed fatalities and injured, underscores a catastrophic humanitarian and environmental impact. The confirmed 24 fatalities at the Ryazan gunpowder plant explosion underscore the significant environmental damage from the UA deep strike. The significant fire at the SOCAR oil depot in Odesa will cause localized air pollution and potential water contamination. The reported fire in Olkhivski Dachi near Stanitsia Luhanska from burning fields indicates immediate environmental impact and civilian displacement. The reported heat helping RF forces evade UA thermal imagers on the Zaporizhzhia front indicates a localized environmental factor exploited by the enemy. The severe fire in Kamyshnoye and Gerasimovka (LPR) causing power outages indicates continued environmental impact and disruption of civilian services due to conflict. The report of Poltava and its community are without electricity confirms immediate environmental/infrastructure impact. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UA source) photo message "Damn clouds" could indicate weather conditions affecting drone operations. A threat of ballistic weapons from the south in areas where air raid alerts have been declared. Ballistic missile arrival in Dobroslav. A high-speed target on Odesa Oblast, heading northwest. A large fire is confirmed in Volgograd, Russia, at a hospital on the territory of an oil refinery due to a UAV attack, indicating environmental impact on Russian territory from UA deep strikes. The governor confirmed that both the oil refinery and the hospital roof are on fire. RF source reports yellow aviation danger code for Klyuchevskoy Volcano in Kamchatka. This is a natural environmental event, unrelated to combat, but reported by a RF news agency. The Kremenchuk Oil Refinery has been struck by RF forces, resulting in a powerful fire, indicating significant environmental damage and disruption to fuel supply for Ukraine. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) provides a photo showing fire and smoke rising from a large industrial complex at night, captioned "Russians attacked Poltava Oblast overnight," indicating a strike on critical infrastructure, likely the Kremenchuk oil refinery, confirming ongoing environmental impact. Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAЇНА FIGHTS (UA sources) report a massive overnight attack on Poltava Oblast by the enemy, as stated by the OVA, causing power outages. ASTRA (UA source) reports Russia massively attacked Poltava Oblast, causing power problems, citing local authorities. WarGonzo (RF source) photo messages confirming RF attacks on energy objects in Kremenchuk, showing significant smoke, further confirm environmental impact. РБК-Україна (UA source) photo message shows dense black smoke from Kremenchuk, directly confirming severe environmental impact. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video confirms burning Azerbaijani oil tanks in Kremenchuk with thick black smoke, indicating significant environmental damage. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) video shows a large urban conflagration with thick smoke rising over residential buildings in Kremenchuk/Lubny, explicitly stating hits on the gas transportation system and oil refinery, confirming severe environmental and infrastructure damage. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows a large plume of dark smoke rising over Kremenchuk, visually confirming significant environmental impact. ASTRA (UA source) videos and photos of smoke over Kremenchuk further confirm the environmental damage. Два майора (RF source) photo messages and text confirm the environmental aftermath of strikes on Kremenchuk, including a large smoke plume. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video and photo messages confirm significant smoke over Kremenchuk. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports on unexploded cluster munitions from Russian missiles found in Kremenchuk after the attack, indicating a severe civilian threat. The reported fire in Stanichno-Luhansk district, spreading across 458 square meters, confirms continued environmental impact from the conflict. Mash na Donbasse (RF source) reports two trucks overturned on Chonhar with one fatality; while not directly military, this could impact transport infrastructure if the road is key. TASS (RF source) reports a water crisis in DNR and that Pushilin (RF-appointed official) stated no large underground water reserves have been found, highlighting an ongoing environmental and humanitarian crisis in occupied territories. Kotsnews (RF source) provides video showing thick plumes of smoke from what appears to be widespread fires in urban or industrial areas of Kremenchuk, further confirming the environmental impact. TASS reports that solar flares are expected to intensify magnetic storms on Earth in the next 24 hours. While not directly linked to battlefield conditions, strong magnetic storms can affect satellite communications, GPS, and radio signals, potentially impacting C2 and ISR. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Indirect impact on military operations)
  • IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT: A video from Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) shows a large building complex engulfed in flames with thick black smoke, identified as the Synelnykove district after overnight Shahed attacks. This confirms severe localized environmental damage and disruption from RF strikes. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 video features officials discussing fire safety measures and environmental conditions in the Zaporizhzhia region, confirming increased fire risk and air quality issues due to ongoing conflict. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports that RF drones attacked Chernihiv Oblast this morning, causing power outages in some settlements, confirming continued RF drone activity in the area and immediate civilian impact. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) corroborates that parts of Chernihiv Oblast are without electricity after the morning UAV attack, further confirming the immediate civilian impact. Север.Реалии (UA source) photo and video messages confirm the Kremenchuk oil refinery fire from RF strike. Военкор Котенок (RF source) videos show significant smoke plumes over Kremenchuk oil refinery, confirming the environmental impact of the strike. STERNENKO (UA source) photo message confirms the presence of unexploded cluster munitions in Kremenchuk after the attack, posing an ongoing environmental and safety hazard. ASTRA (UA source) video and photos show the aftermath of an airstrike on a residential building in Dobropillya, Donetsk Oblast, with one fatality and one injured, confirming severe localized environmental damage to civilian infrastructure. TASS reports that AFU attacked a church in Belgorod Oblast, with a woman injured, and a man injured by a UAV in Mokra Orlovka. This indicates environmental impact from attacks on civilian and religious infrastructure in RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • CURRENT AIR ALERTS: KABs are currently launched towards Donetsk Oblast. Reconnaissance UAVs are reported in central Sumy Oblast, eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, northern Donetsk Oblast, and Chernihiv Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast air raid alert has been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

  • Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske Axis): RF forces (elements of 98th VDV Division) maintain foothold in eastern Kanal microdistrict, conducting battalion-sized mechanized assaults. UA units executed tactical withdrawal to prepared defensive positions west of the initial line of contact. Clashes persist near Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, Oleksandra-Kalynove, and Pleschiyivka. UA 93rd Brigade conducting clearance operations in Hruzke and Vesele (Dobropillya area) with tank and robotic support. RF 85th OMCBR operating in Soledar direction. RF 36th OA forces (37th OMCBR, 336th Marine Brigade) pressing towards Maliyivka, Shevchenko, and Yanvarske. UA Azov Brigade actively repelling RF attacks in Katerynivka, Toretsk direction. RF striking Myrnohrad and Ivanpillia with FAB bombs. RF MoD video confirms aerial strikes on urban areas in Donetsk People's Republic. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows a drone strike on an RF motorcyclist in Kurakhove direction. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims the assault on Konstantinovka has begun. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UA source) video indicates UA targeting of RF ground elements with precision strikes. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetropavsk and Donetsk Oblasts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" successfully conducted an offensive operation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video showing captured Russian soldiers providing testimony confirms UA success. An Iskander-M strike on Sloviansk has been reported. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts photo message claiming RF forces are advancing on Konstantinovka direction. Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) video confirms Grad MLRS fire and subsequent strikes from RF forces. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts map of the Druzhkivka/Konstantinovka directions. Підрозділ Shadow (UA source) video shows successful drone strike on RF positions, including thermal imaging confirmation. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows damaged building and explosion, indicating ongoing military engagement. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video confirming ongoing intense fighting and holding of key heights in Dobropillya direction. The video confirms active combat operations with drone footage showing targeted vehicles. Colonelcassad has released new video showing "Adsky Krik" drone operators from the 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment, 5th Army, "Vostok" Group of Forces, destroying enemy armored vehicles, manpower, and drones in the South-Donetsk direction. TASS reports that RF MoD claims Southern Grouping fighters destroyed a platoon of "Kholodnyi Yar" militants. Latest RF reporting indicates renewed strikes on Sloviansk. TASS reports a robotic platform of the AFU was destroyed near Konstantinovka, DNR, indicating RF continues to target UA automated systems. РБК-Україна (UA source) video shows the aftermath of an RF Iskander-M missile strike on Sloviansk, with significant damage to civilian buildings, confirming continued RF missile targeting in this area. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows a successful UA drone strike on an RF vehicle with ammunition in the Pokrovsk direction, confirming UA offensive capabilities. МоD Russia (RF source) video shows a T-80BVM tank crew from the 'Tsentr' Group eliminating a UA stronghold in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) posts a video claiming "Annihilation of a UAV control point of the AFU in Dimitrov" (likely Dymytriv/Myrnohrad), showing drone footage of a dilapidated building complex identified as a UA UAV control point. ASTRA (UA source) video and photos confirm an airstrike on a residential area in Dobropillya, resulting in one fatality and one injury, underscoring RF's continued targeting of civilian areas. Liveuamap Source (UA) confirms clashes yesterday near Bila Hora and Chasiv Yar. RF MoD (Southern Grouping) video shows reactive artillery striking enemy targets in the Donetsk direction. This confirms continued heavy fire support by RF ground forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovskoe Direction): RF claims "big breakthrough" and liberation of Iskra. RF advanced up to 1.5km towards Sokil from Ocheretyne. UA forces cleared Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz (1st Azov Corps). UA forces repelled enemy near Rubizhne, Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Vesele, Vilne, Shakhove, Nykanorivka, and Sukhetske. UA Commander Syrskyi reports successful UA advances in Dobropillya and Pokrovsk directions. TASS reports RF 'Vostok' grouping advanced into Ivankiv, Poltavka, and Zeleny Gay. TASS reports Ukrainian National Guard relocating units from Kharkiv to Pokrovsk direction. RF Tsentr Group flamethrower units reportedly active near Krasnoarmeysk. RF artillery reconnaissance seeking "night bird" drones. RF claiming positions between Dobropillya and Kucherov Yar. Intense fighting reported for Udachne and Pervoye Maya. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) appeals for donations for "motorized rifle units and special forces" that are "actively advancing." A large map of Ukraine was observed in the Oval Office during the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) and STERNENKO (UA source) post photo messages of the large map of Ukraine in the Oval Office. Rybar (RF source) posts a tactical map for the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd direction as of 18 AUG 25. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video message showing intense fighting and "holding key heights" on the Dobropillya direction. The video appears to be drone footage showing engagements between opposing forces, including vehicles being targeted and destroyed (BBM, "Baba-Yaga" drone, relay station, truck). This confirms ongoing high-intensity combat. Операция Z (RF source) video shows "Otvazhnye" burning a UA stronghold near Pokrovsk using "Tosochka" (TOS-1A). Rybar (RF source) video provides tactical analysis of "pocket" near Alekseevka and fighting for Udachnoe, indicating active combat and RF analytical focus on these areas. Сливочный каприз (RF source) photo message with caption "18.08.25 Krasnoarmeysk - Poltavka" provides an RF claimed tactical map of the Pokrovsk direction, which can be cross-referenced with UA reports of the fighting. A new RF claimed tactical map for the Pokrovsk direction as of 19 AUG 25, captioned "Krasnoarmeysk - Mayak," indicates continued RF focus on this axis. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) video shows RF rocket artillery strikes in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, confirming continued RF fire support for offensive operations. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video shows Ukrainian drone operators "sending occupiers to demobilization" in the Pokrovsk direction, showing footage of enemy movement and casualties and highlighting the effectiveness of the 414th UAV Brigade "Birds of Madyar." Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Dorozhnye, Fedorivka, Nykanorivka, Mayak, Rodynske, Novoekonomichne, Chervonyy Lyman, Promin, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Molodetske, Novoukrayinka, Chunyshyne, Volodymyrivka, Dachne, Lysivka and towards Balahan. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UA reports capture of an RF prisoner from 150th Division by Azov units, and significant RF losses in Azov's areas. Mandatory evacuation of families with children in Druzhkivka suggests anticipated RF advances or increased threat. Closure of Ukrposhta branches in Konstantinovka from August 19 further indicates increasing threat to this logistics hub. Clashes reported near Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, Oleksandra-Kalynove, and Pleschiyivka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Pleschiyivka, Stepanivka, Yablunivka and Rusyn Yar in the Toretsk direction. STERNENKO (UA source) reports that Phoenix UAS tactical group is "cutting Russian logistics" in the Konstantinovka direction. Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) claims RF 4th OMCBR continues to attack towards Delievka – Aleksandro-Shulgino and attempts to break through and consolidate in Belaya Gora. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Toretsk, Scherbynivka and towards Oleksandro-Shultyne, Pleschiyivka, Rusyn Yar in thetsk direction, as well as Poltavka and Berestok. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Luhansk Oblast (Siversk Direction): RF forces report combat operations with drone-guided artillery and ATGM teams. RF MoD claims destruction of AFU stronghold in Krasny Liman direction. RF aims to advance 2 km to close a "fire bag" for AFU in Kremensky forests. Russian forces reportedly broke through Ukrainian defense lines in the Lyman district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Serebryanka, Siversk, Vyyimka, Fedorivka, Pereyizne and towards Siversk in the Siversk direction. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Kolodezi in Donetsk People's Republic (Luhansk direction). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 63rd Brigade utilizing three FPV drones to neutralize a Russian tank threatening Ukrainian positions east of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast. RF MoD confirms liberation of Kolodezi and Voronoye. Colonelcassad reports on mobile fire groups operating in Belgorod Oblast and Luhansk People's Republic. TASS reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including foreign mercenaries, suffered 4,500 personnel losses in the past week on the Luhansk People's Republic borders, with the Southern Group of Forces inflicting the most damage. TASS claims that Kyiv has struck Lisichansk, LPR, more than 10 times in the past week, resulting in civilian casualties. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Luhansk direction as of 18 AUG 25. Сливочный каприз (RF source) posts a summary of combat operations between August 14-17, 2025, which likely includes the Luhansk direction. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Fedorivka and Vyyimka in the Siversk direction, as well as Serebrianka and Vyimka. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) has provided a photo message of a tactical map for the Siversk direction. Mash na Donbasse reports over 1000 residents of Kamyshnoye and Gerasimovka without power due to a severe fire in LPR. Сливочный каприз (RF source) photo messages with caption "19.08.25 Siversk - Vyyemka" provides RF claimed tactical map of the Siversk direction. Сливочный каприз (RF source) video demonstrates active combat operations in the Siversk direction, including drone strikes on enemy positions and personnel, confirming ongoing high-intensity engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): Sustained RF artillery and FPV drone attacks on Nikopol and surrounding communities. RF claims control of all settlements at the junction of DNR and Dnipropetropavsk Oblast after liberation of Iskra. Extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Nikopol confirmed. Ballistic missile strike on outskirts of Dnipro confirmed with damage to civilian property. Overnight drone attack on Pokrovska community, Synelnykivskyi district, caused fires at agricultural enterprises. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Voronoye in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetropavsk Regional State Administration) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopolshchyna. A ballistic missile threat on Synelnykove and a high-speed target from the east on Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Explosions were heard in Pavlohrad. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports destruction of a UA T-72 tank by an FPV drone in Ivanivka, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected near Pavlohrad, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a drone (UAV) threat to Pavlohrad. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "powerful explosions" in Pavlohrad. TASS (RF source) claims UA forces in Iskra, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, killed an elderly female civilian. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropropetrovsk Regional State Administration) reports that RF struck Pavlohrad with a missile overnight, causing a fire. Воин DV (RF source) video footage from an aerial platform with thermal imaging, focused on a wooded area on the border of Dnipropetropavsk Oblast and DNR, targeting what appears to be personnel or equipment. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces struck Pavlohrad Repair and Mechanical Plant and Technical Equipment Plant. MoD Russia (RF source) video of servicemen from the Vostok Group of Forces describing the liberation of Iskra in Donetsk People's Republic. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) posts a UA UAV attacked a gas station in Yenakiieve, DNR. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports that UA forces inflicted a successful strike on a gas station in Yenakiieve. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports a substation hit by a "Geran" drone in Mezhove, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video of a burning power substation in Mezhove, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetropavsk Regional State Administration) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol, Marhanets, and Pokrovske communities throughout the day. Photos show damaged civilian buildings. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetropavsk and Donetsk Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of strike UAVs in eastern Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, heading towards Pavlohrad. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 1 "moped" (Shahed) heading towards Dnipro. UA Air Defense reports 7 enemy UAVs shot down over Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. ASTRA (UA source) reports one person injured after Russian attacks in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports the "SKALA" Regiment conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetropavsk and Donetsk Oblasts, confirming UA tactical gains. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) video claims destruction of a French "Caesar" self-propelled howitzer and an ammunition vehicle in the Dnipropetropavsk border region by "Vostok" Group of Forces, signaling continued RF focus on Western-supplied artillery. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video depicts a large building complex engulfed in flames and thick black smoke after overnight Shahed attacks in the Synelnykove district. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a photo message showing a tactical map for the Dnipropetrovsk direction. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in eastern Dnipropetrovsk. Colonelcassad (RF source) video shows a Lancet strike on a French CAESAR SPG in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, confirming the targeting and destruction of high-value Western-supplied artillery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkivskyi District): UA Air Force alerts for high-speed targets and KAB launches. RF claims improved position near Krasny Perviy, controlling ~6 km of road to Dvorechnaya. A substantial increase (estimated 40%) in Russian EW emissions has been detected in the Kharkiv sector, primarily targeting Ukrainian reconnaissance UAVs and degrading ISR capabilities. Continued RF reconnaissance UAVs in northern and eastern Kharkiv Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Khatnye and Fyholivka in the South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction, and also Hlyboke, Kamyanka, Ambarne. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 4 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes in the past day. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. РБК-Україна reports 11 casualties in Kharkiv from recent RF attack. Олег Синєгубов, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, reports 3 additional casualties, bringing total to 11. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates the 11 casualties. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration (UA source), provided multiple photo messages showing damaged civilian residential buildings. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "continuing to pound Kharkiv" with "powerful explosions." РБК-Україна reports an explosion heard in Kharkiv. Mayor Igor Terekhov confirms "Shahed" hits in Industrialnyi district. Oleg Syniehubov confirms two casualties (25-year-old male, 79-year-old female) from drone strike. Subsequent reports from Oleg Syniehubov indicate 10-year-old boy, 19-year-old girl, 46-year-old male, and 47-year-old female hospitalized. Mayor Igor Terekhov reports one fatality and five injured. Kharkiv now reports four fatalities (up from three), including a one-year-old child and a 55-year-old woman, and 17 injured (including 6 children). Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) reports 5 people are currently missing. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and РБК-УкраїНА (UA source) have released additional video footage showing the ongoing search and rescue operation. ASTRA (UA source) has released photos and a drone video showing the extensive destruction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports on the drone attack on a residential high-rise. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА reports a 16-year-old boy became the fourth victim. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports five fatalities. STERNENKO (UA source) corroborates five fatalities. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates five fatalities. Север.Реалії (UA source) reports at least four fatalities. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) reports enemy strikes on Kharkiv and 10 settlements. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports five fatalities and at least 30 injured. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) reports the number of injured has increased to 20. ASTRA (UA source) also reports 30 injured. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts video and photo messages of the aftermath. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) declares August 18 a day of mourning. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports the number of injured has increased to 20. ASTRA (UA source) reports the number of fatalities has increased to 6. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) confirms 6 fatalities. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts an informational message. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the number of fatalities has risen to 7. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates 7 fatalities. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) also confirms 7 fatalities. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts video of border guards liquidating 5 enemy targets. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and Рыбарь (RF source) both post video of a military convoy with RF and US flags. ASTRA (UA source) posts video of a Russian attack on Kharkiv from the city's mayor. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video of Kharkiv mayor showing morning Shahed strikes. РБК-УкраїНА (UA source) posts video of Kharkiv mayor showing the moment of a Russian strike. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts video of Kharkiv, claiming "Tests continue. Be good!". ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing the moment of an RF strike on a residential building. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video showing medics attempting to resuscitate a small child. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, reports an additional three people sought medical attention, bringing total to 23. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts multiple photo messages indicating effective UA drone reconnaissance by the 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade. Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) has provided a photo message warning of fire danger. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on northern Kharkiv Oblast. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 24 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes last week. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video footage of a series of impacts in Kharkiv. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports that "Khartia" drones successfully located and struck an RF camp in Kharkiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts three photo messages depicting a battle map of the Kharkiv direction. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) posts a photo message celebrating Ukrainian leadership. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video showing civilian structures being transported by trucks at night. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a video of a formal gathering of international dignitaries, including Zelenskyy and Trump. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows drone operators of the 3rd Assault Brigade dropping munitions on RF in Kharkiv Oblast. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast is under bomb strike and threat of strike UAVs. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports RF KAB strikes on Ruska Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows 3rd Assault Brigade drone operators striking RF positions in Kharkiv Oblast while peace talks are ongoing. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast under bomb strike and UAV threat. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. A high-speed target is moving through Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast, likely a cruise missile. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Another high-speed target reported in Kharkiv Oblast, same course. UA sources report 4 missiles from Kharkiv Oblast now over Poltava Oblast, heading towards Kremenchuk. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 16 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast sustained enemy strikes yesterday. TASS reports RF forces struck two UA locations in Khatnye and Chuhunivka, Kharkiv Oblast. Олексій Білошицький (UA source) video confirms ongoing rescue operations and significant damage in Kharkiv following drone strikes, highlighting continued RF attacks on civilian infrastructure. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a photo of a multi-story residential building in Kharkiv, extensively damaged, implying a successful RF strike. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports a Russian serviceman will be tried in Kharkiv Oblast for shooting Ukrainian soldiers at the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the new commander of the 13th NGU Brigade "Khartia" is Major Daniel "Cuba" Kitone, indicating leadership changes within UA forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Chernihiv Oblast: UA Air Force alerts for enemy reconnaissance UAVs, high-speed targets, and threat of strike UAVs. "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on a forward Ukrainian command post in Birino area confirmed. Ballistic missile impact in Honcharivske reported. RF claims destruction of a foreign mercenary legion's base. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Krasnyy Khutir of Chernihiv region, and Polushkyne, Karabany. Colonelcassad reports Kinzhal strike near Desna and Geran/Gerbera strikes near Semenivka (Chernihiv Oblast). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV threat to Brovary and Boryspil districts in Kyiv Oblast and a UAV threat to Kyiv. Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy UAVs on northern Chernihiv Oblast and in the Pryluky area. НгП раZVедка (RF source) claims "Geran" drones are "drilling" Chernihiv Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports enemy UAVs attacked Kyiv Oblast overnight, damaging a hangar in Boryspil district. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Chernihiv Oblast. MoD Russia (RF source) video claiming Geran-2 UAVs hit AFU special forces units of GUR near Zhadovo, Chernihiv region, and also an AFU forward command post near Birino. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UA source) reports UAVs in central Chernihiv Oblast near Pryluky. Операция Z (RF source) posts video claiming Geran strikes hit GUR special forces in Chernihiv. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy strike UAV on northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. UA Air Force reports a UAV threat in Chernihiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces struck a training center in Chernihiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for Chernihiv Oblast has been lifted. Latest UA Air Force reports an enemy UAV on Chernihiv Oblast. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports that RF drones attacked Chernihiv Oblast this morning, causing power outages in some settlements, confirming continued RF drone activity in the area and immediate civilian impact. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) corroborates that parts of Chernihiv Oblast are without electricity after the morning UAV attack, further confirming the immediate civilian impact. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports reconnaissance UAV activity in Chernihiv Oblast with interception measures engaged, indicating ongoing ISR from RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kherson Oblast (Left Bank Dnieper): UA reports destruction of an RF ammunition depot and four vehicles on the left bank. RF claims Lancet strike destroyed US M-777 howitzer and Ukrainian Bogdana SPG on right bank. Ukrainian Navy radio intercepts confirm loss of Russian Su-30SM fighter jet southeast of Snake Island. UA forces repelled 4-6 Russian army assaults. UA source claims reconnaissance units entered "Novaya Kakhovka" on the Kherson direction and are shelling enemy defenses. Southern Ukraine Defense Forces report continued strikes on enemy deployment areas, fire positions, and rear areas in the southern operational zone. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports strikes on Khadzhibeevka and Usatove (Odesa region), specifically targeting "marine BECs" and a 330kv power substation. TASS (RF source) claims that the "Kyiv-appointed" administration of Kherson has long since left the city and is operating remotely from Mykolaiv. TASS reports that the AFU lost a Starlink satellite communication station and 17 UAV control points in the zone of responsibility of the 'Vostok' grouping in the past 24 hours. Два майора (RF source) posts thermal imaging footage claiming to show activity in Kherson at night. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) provides operational information for the Southern Defense Forces. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Kherson direction as of 18 AUG 25. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction, and also clashes near Antonivsky bridge, Dniprovske, and near Bilohrudyy island. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of explosions and vehicle activity in the Kherson direction. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows artillerymen of the 49th Army hitting fortifications on the right bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson region. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) photo message provides operational information for the Southern Defense Forces as of 08:00 19 AUG 25, indicating continued UA monitoring and defense in the southern operational zone. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) photo message with caption "⚡️⚡️Сили оборони Півдня України продовжують уражати місця дислокації ворога, його вогневі позиції та тили." confirms ongoing UA deep strikes and counter-battery fire in the Southern operational zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Odesa Oblast: STERNENKO reports groups of strike UAVs in the north and near Odesa Oblast. РБК-Україна reports an alert from Odesa Oblast Military Administration calling residents to shelters due to strike UAVs. STERNENKO reports Odesa is under a massive "Shahed" drone attack, with explosions heard. Николаевский Ванёк reports reduction in drone numbers near Odesa. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports continued drone threats in Velyka Balka-Nerubaiske and Radisne-Velykyi Dalnyk (Odesa Oblast). ASTRA reports a large fire in Odesa after a massive Shahed strike. Операция Z (RF source) posts multiple photo and video messages reporting "powerful strikes on enemy objects in Odesa, fires in the city." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports that RF drones struck a Nova Poshta terminal in Odesa. Дневник Десантника (RF source) claims that their strike UAVs hit "several objects" in Odesa overnight. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна (UA source) confirm an RF drone strike on a fuel and energy infrastructure object and a two-story building in the suburbs of Odesa. ASTRA reports a fire on a fuel and energy infrastructure object in Odesa Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) reports Odesa was attacked by Shaheds all night. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video of the aftermath of strikes on an alleged SOCAR oil depot in Odesa Oblast. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims Geran drones destroyed a "giant fuel terminal" of SOCAR. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) reports 24 Shahed UAVs destroyed by Southern Defense Forces. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a map/graphic titled "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine August 17 - August 18, 2025," which likely includes Odesa. Colonelcassad also posts video of an explosion with "kurs_odessa" watermark. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video claiming a massive Shahed attack on SOCAR oil depot in Odesa Oblast. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims "Azerbaijani fuel tanks extinguished." Colonelcassad (RF source) comments that overnight strikes in Odesa targeted Nova Poshta objects and SOCAR. Два майора (RF source) posts video of significant damage to industrial or storage tanks in Odesa. Colonelcassad (RF source) also posts video showing the aftermath of attacks on SOCAR in Odesa. Операция Z (RF source) provides photos of a large fire, likely in Odesa. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows a significant fire at the SOCAR oil depot. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts photos showing a large fire at the SOCAR oil depot in Odesa. Kotsnews (RF source) posts videos confirming significant damage and fires. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) also posts video of the aftermath of the SOCAR oil depot strike. Два майора (RF source) has posted a photo message regarding Romania's desire to expand joint Black Sea patrolling with Bulgaria and Turkey. Colonelcassad (RF source) provides a summary of strikes. WarGonzo (RF source) posted videos showing the aftermath of the SOCAR strike in Odesa. STERNENKO video shows aerial footage likely from a drone, observing an area with what appear to be defensive positions or fortifications. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha reacting to the RF strike on the SOCAR oil depot. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile arrival in Dobroslav. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target on Odesa Oblast, heading northwest. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video shows multiple plumes of black smoke rising from various urban locations, likely Odesa, implying significant fires/explosions. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports the SBU uncovered an RF military intelligence agent group that coordinated shelling of Kyiv and carried out sabotage in Odesa Oblast. This indicates continued RF attempts at covert action in the region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RF claims destruction of AFU ammunition depot. 578 RF strikes on 14 settlements over past day. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and also near Novoandriyivka in Orikhiv direction, and Prymorske, Novoandriyivka. A 64-year-old man was wounded in a hostile attack on Polohivskyi district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Tolstoy, Komyshuvakha, Zelene Pole, Maliyivka, Myrne, Zaporizhzhke, Olhivske in the Novopavlivka direction, and also near Kamyanske and Novoandriyivka in the Orikhiv direction, as well as Zirka, Vilne Pole, Voskresenka, Shevchenko, Novodarivka, Olhivske, Novopil, Zelene Pole, Maliyivka, Shevchenko and towards Oleksandrohrad and Komyshuvakha. Colonelcassad reports VKC and missile forces conducted strikes on targets in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація reports air raid alert over. An air raid alert has been declared in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and has since been lifted. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) has re-declared an air raid alert. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of aviation weapons use. UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia district. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports the air raid alert has been lifted. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) has re-declared an air raid alert. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports ballistic missile activity towards Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target towards Zaporizhzhia. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports an explosion in Zaporizhzhia. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Zaporizhzhia is under ballistic missile attack. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports a second ballistic missile. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports a third explosion. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports repeated explosions. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports RF is attempting to strike critical infrastructure. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) corroborates RF attempts to strike critical infrastructure. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) confirms RF strikes on Zaporizhzhia, with two impacts and an increase in injured persons to four. РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborates two strikes. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the ballistic missile threat has been lifted. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports four injured. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) also reports four injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports that 6 people, two in serious condition, have been hospitalized. ASTRA (UA source) also reports 6 injured. РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborates increasing casualties. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts photos from the State Emergency Service. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports 7 injured. ASTRA (UA source) reports 17 injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) confirms 17 injured. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) also reports 17 injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) posts photos showing damage. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Syrskyi stating Russia is concentrating troops and planning a large-scale offensive. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) posts video showing firefighters and emergency personnel clearing debris. STERNENKO (UA source) posts video of significant damage. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Zelenyy Hay, Tolstoy, Oleksandrohrad, Voskresenka, Maliyivka, Vilne Pole and Temyrivka in the Novopavlivka direction. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Novoandriyivka in the Orikhiv direction. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA) reports a man rescued from debris has died. РБК-Україна (UA) corroborates the death. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA) reports air raid alert lifted. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports 3 dead and 18 injured from the morning attack. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports 23 people, injured by the enemy attack, are receiving medical assistance. РБК-Україна (UA) corroborates 23 injured. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) corroborates 23 injured. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates 23 injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) posts video showing the aftermath of the missile strike. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a video appealing for donations for drones and Starlink. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) posts photos showing the 44th Separate Artillery Brigade "Bogdana" successfully destroying enemy equipment. ASTRA (UA source) reports on an RF M113 APC with RF and US flags operating in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Два майора (RF source) posted a video claimed to be a tank strike in the Lukyanovskoe area of Zaporizhzhia. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports an increase in the number of injured persons to 27. РБК-Україна (UA) reports the number of injured has risen to 24. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) states that the Commander-in-Chief's statement about enemy intent to break through the Zaporizhzhia front and advance deep into Ukrainian territory was not new to them. Два майора (RF source) posted a drone video from the Zaporizhzhia front. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the number of injured in Zaporizhzhia increased to 30. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports 30 injured. ASTRA (UA source) reports 30 injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports Zaporizhzhia Oblast is a leader in drone procurement. ASTRA (UA source) reports up to 30 injured. Photos confirm significant damage to residential buildings. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports an air raid alert declared. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of ballistic weapons. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports the number of injured has increased to 33. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) declares an air raid alert. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UA source) reports a threat of ballistic weapons use. Два майора (RF source) reports on current combat activity on the Zaporizhzhia front. The air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a video appealing for donations. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video showing RF forces striking a UA tank in a wooded area near Lukyanovskoe, Zaporizhzhia direction. The video appears to be FPV drone footage, showing the drone's telemetry and a Russian watermark, indicating RF drone activity. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 3 dead and 33 injured in Zaporizhzhia from yesterday's enemy attack. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a "Minute of Silence" video, signifying continued mourning for casualties in Zaporizhzhia. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) video shows two RF servicemen from the 7th Airborne Division appealing for donations for drones and Starlink, suggesting ongoing logistical needs in the Zaporizhzhia direction. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has released a video confirming significant damage to civilian infrastructure, including residential and private buildings, and updated casualty figures to 3 fatalities and 34 injured after a Russian missile strike around 0900Z. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 video features officials discussing fire safety measures and environmental conditions in the Zaporizhzhia region, confirming increased fire risk and air quality issues due to ongoing conflict. A ballistic missile threat has been declared for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Воин DV (RF source) video shows 57th Motorized Rifle Brigade "Vostok" destroying enemy material and technical means, including Starlink terminals, in Zaporizhzhia. This confirms RF targeting of UA communication infrastructure and continued operations by this unit. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and РБК-Україна (UA source) report that a train with cisterns was blown up between Urozhaine and Tokmak in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, impacting RF logistics. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video and photos confirm a successful drone strike by the "Roniny" battalion of the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade's unmanned systems battalion on an RF train with fuel cisterns and military ordnance near Molochansk (Tokmak direction). This confirms continued UA interdiction of RF logistics. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) photos corroborate the destruction of a railway depot with fuel near Tokmak, indicating a successful UA strike. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows an FPV drone flying over a railway line with a train, implying continued UA interest in targeting RF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kupyansk Axis: Previous reports indicated a decisive shift of RF main effort with the capture of Ivanivka. RF continues strikes on settlements. UA reports successful tank sorties and drone operations against RF personnel and equipment. Commander of "Achilles" Regiment Fedorenko (UA source) reports RF plans to occupy Kupyansk by August 24. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports the first mechanized attack by RF on the left bank of Kupyansk in a long time. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Kupyansk direction as of 18 AUG 25. STERNENKO (UA source) reports that 905 drones has been delivered to the Defense Forces in the last two days. Николаевский Ванёк reports a new "singing" RF prisoner was taken under Muravka, Donetsk Oblast, identified as Vladimir Sergeevich from the 35th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. TASS reports the head of Kharkiv VGA Ganchev claims Russian forces are encircling Kupyansk. Воин DV (RF source) video shows aerial footage of an ongoing military engagement impacting a rural or semi-rural landscape, with multiple explosions visible, confirming continued RF operations near Novosyolovka in the Kupyansk direction. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Holubivka, Kupyansk, Petropavlivka, Moskovka and Zahryzove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Sumy Oblast: РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian forces actively destroying the enemy in Sumy Oblast, pushing back Russians near Oleksiivka and Yunakivka. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of a destroyed UA M577 command post vehicle in Sumy Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing an RF truck with ammunition epically destroyed by a Ukrainian drone on the way to Sumy Oblast. TASS reports that RF forces have improved their tactical position near Yunakovka, Sumy Oblast. Операция Z (RF source) thermal imagery video claims successful destruction of UA armored vehicles by Spetsnaz "Anvar" and VDV units supporting an offensive on Sumy. РБК-Україна reports a 57-year-old woman injured by a KAB strike on Novoslobidska community, Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new UAVs on northern Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports a missile strike on Sumy. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted photo messages confirming a missile strike on an educational institution. НгП раZVедка (RF source) posts a mocking caption suggesting RF strikes or activity in Shostka. RF reconnaissance UAVs are operating near Putyvl. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Sumy. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports a series of explosions. Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 new RF UAVs detected east of Bilopillya. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports continued RF attacks on Sumy. Colonelcassad shares video footage from the 68th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th Army, Western Military District. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs. UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs. TASS (RF source) claims that Ukrainian Armed Forces command in Sumy Oblast has committed all resources to outflank RF forces in Yunakivka. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video showing two individuals in a wooded area with abandoned cars and a quad bike, claiming it depicts RF forces marauding in border villages of Kursk Oblast. Kotsnews (RF source) posts video with caption "Syrsky: Kursk - best result among all major operations," which is an RF information operation. MoD Russia (RF source) video claiming a BM-21 Grad MLRS crew eliminated a manpower cluster. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts video of a Lancet loitering munition preparation and strike. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, with 7 repelled assaults. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University. РБК-Україна (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University. Alex Parker Returns (RF) claims the Sumy State University was hit by a "Flamingo missile." Два майора (RF source) posts video showing an RF FPV drone strike. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy strike UAV on northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. RF activity on the Sumy direction, with an aerial view of an exploding vehicle. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) asserts that RF forces have been defeated in Sumy Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a video of drone-guided artillery or air strikes. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) amplifies Syrsky's (misquoted) statements. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts a photo message showing activity on the Eastern Direction. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports a severe injury to an RF General in Kursk Oblast from a HIMARS strike. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video from local residents showing a visual confirmation of RF "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on Sumy State University. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAV threat. TASS (RF source) reports RF military expert Yan Gagin claiming AFU unsuccessfully counterattack. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows Uragan MLRS crews eliminating AFU armored vehicles. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows T-80BVM tanks of the Sever Group of Forces eliminating AFU hardware. RF has again attacked civilian infrastructure in Sumy. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast moving south. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of enemy UAVs on the north, east, and south of Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. An explosion was heard in Sumy. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Sumy Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UA source) video indicates UA forces are expanding their buffer zone in the Sumy region. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) video shows two individuals in a wooded area, likely RF personnel, but content is general and not highly specific to Sumy operations. STERNENKO (UA source) posts a photo message with incendiary content, implying attacks on Russian border regions, which is a PSYOP. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat from the northeast. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts a photo message showing a battlefield map for the Sumy direction, indicating active counterattacks by VSU and the use of SU-27 fighter jets for strikes on RF positions. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Hirky of Sumy region. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in central Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Strategic Air Activity: Takeoff of 2x Tu-95MS strategic bombers, indicating potential for new missile launches. These have completed pre-launch maneuvers near Engels, indicating imminent missile launches. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports new pre-launch maneuvers by 2x Tu-95MS aircraft in Volgograd Governorate. As of 190159Z AUG 25, no missiles from Tu-95MS aircraft have been observed by UA sources. UA Air Force has confirmed cruise missiles heading for Kremenchuk. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 5 missiles are approaching Kremenchuk. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports "minus" on the missiles for Kremenchuk, indicating successful interception or re-routing. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a video of a truck-mounted MLRS firing multiple salvos, followed by drone footage of impacts, confirming active RF artillery and drone support for ground operations. Fighterbomber (RF source) posts an image with "Good morning, country!", which is a typical RF morning aviation photo message, likely indicating ongoing air operations. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports continued activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeastern and southeastern directions. НгП раZVедка (RF source) video provides a summary of strikes on enemy targets, indicating continued RF kinetic operations. TASS reports Tu-95MS strategic bombers conducted a planned flight over the Sea of Japan for over six hours, suggesting long-range patrols or training operations, though distinct from the immediate threat posed by bombers near Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAV Movement: Multiple groups of RF strike UAVs reported across northeastern Ukraine (Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, northern Dnipropetrovsk, northern Zaporizhzhia), predominantly heading towards Kremenchuk. A separate UAV group is heading towards Brovary in Kyiv Oblast. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports approximately 17 "mopeds" heading towards/through Kremenchuk, confirming the third wave, with 5 remaining drones. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 1 "moped" (Shahed) heading towards Dnipro. A UAV is also reported heading to Zaporizhzhia from the north. This suggests a coordinated large-scale drone attack targeting central Ukraine, possibly energy or logistics infrastructure. TASS reports air defense forces are repelling a massive UAV attack on Volgograd Oblast. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that enemy strike UAVs are still being detected in Ukraine's airspace. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. RF MoD reports 23 UAVs shot down overnight. STERNENKO (UA source) photo message indicates ongoing drone activity targeting Russian areas or military, and serves as a PSYOP against RF. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) reports 236 enemy targets shot down/suppressed. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports 236/280 enemy targets shot down/suppressed. Военкор Котенок (RF source) reports that 23 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down overnight over Russian territory, stating all were of aircraft type. A map from Colonelcassad (RF source) shows the movement of RF drones and missiles over Ukraine on 19 AUG 25, indicating widespread and sustained aerial attacks. STERNENKO (UA source) reports an additional 300 FPV drones were purchased in the last day, highlighting ongoing UA efforts to bolster drone capabilities. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) video titled "New page in unmanned weapons!" shows thermal imaging footage from a drone, demonstrating strikes and explosions in a wooded area, indicating continued development and use of advanced drone capabilities. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in central Sumy Oblast, eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, northern Donetsk Oblast, and Chernihiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Diplomatic Control Measures: Negotiations between Trump, Zelenskyy, and European leaders are ongoing in the White House. RF sources confirm Trump's phone call with Putin and the initiation of preparation for a tripartite meeting (US-RF-UA) to discuss the conflict. Trump has publicly outlined his conditions for peace, including no NATO membership for Ukraine, the concept of selling rather than giving weapons, and discussing territory exchange based on current front lines. Zelenskyy has reaffirmed Ukraine's stance against territorial concessions and for peace based on a strong security system. Zelenskyy has also stated he wants to meet Putin without preconditions to discuss territorial issues bilaterally. NATO Secretary General Rutte stated that a virtual meeting of the "coalition of the willing" will take place on August 19. Rutte also confirmed that US arms supplies to Ukraine will continue through NATO countries. Rutte stated the question of Ukrainian territorial concessions was not discussed at the White House meeting. Macron confirmed discussions on strengthening sanctions against Russia if the conflict does not end. Macron stated that territory exchange was not discussed. Rutte clarified that deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine was not discussed. Rutte remains unclear on the seriousness of Trump administration's security guarantee promises. Zelenskiy / Official released a video summary of the Washington negotiations, highlighting discussions with President Trump, battlefield situation, and steps towards peace, and multi-format meetings with European leaders and the US President. TASS reports that European advisors will work with the US on security guarantees for Ukraine. TASS reports Macron views US willingness to participate in Ukraine's security as progress. ASTRA (UA source) reports that Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, stated: "Every Ukrainian child abducted by Russia must be returned to their families." TASS (RF source) reports that the Ukrainian crisis has become an expensive lesson for Europe, which has every reason to play a more active role in achieving peace, citing the Global Times. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports that US State Secretary Marco Rubio discussed a new mechanism for providing American weapons to Ukraine, indicating ongoing commitment to military aid. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts a video of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stating that President Trump was instrumental in breaking the deadlock with Putin, highlighting Trump's unique role in diplomacy. TASS (RF source) reports that a Chinese expert believes the Putin-Trump meeting in Alaska created conditions for Ukraine negotiations, aiming to frame RF as proactive in seeking peace. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports US State Secretary Rubio stating that non-European countries will also participate in developing security guarantees for Ukraine, indicating a broader international commitment to Ukraine's security beyond just Europe. ASTRA (UA source) posts a video of French President Emmanuel Macron stating that Russia cannot be trusted without security guarantees due to past actions (Georgia 2008, Crimea 2014), emphasizing the importance of robust security commitments. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts a photo message of Zelenskyy thanking Melania Trump for her attention to the issue of Ukrainian children abducted by Russia, highlighting a humanitarian aspect of the diplomatic engagement. Prime Minister of Japan Shigeru Ishiba states for the first time that innocent people are dying due to the conflict in Ukraine and Russia, commenting on the Trump-Zelenskyy-European leaders negotiations. TASS reports that the talks between Trump, European leaders, and Zelenskyy showed the world order is changing, citing The Globe and Mail, which is part of RF's information operation to portray a shifting global power balance favorable to them. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports NATO Secretary General Rutte stated that 30 countries have been developing security guarantees for Ukraine for several months, indicating ongoing, broad international support despite public statements. Операция Z (RF source) video on US State Secretary Marco Rubio discussing the change in US military aid to Ukraine (Europe paying), is an RF information operation intended to highlight perceived shifts in Western support. Fighterbomber (RF source) photo message with a political caption about the recent diplomatic meeting reflects RF narrative control over the summit. Colonelcassad (RF source) photo message highlighting Trump discussing negotiations with Putin over a map showing "new Russian regions and Crimea" is a strong RF information operation aiming to legitimize annexed territories. РБК-Україна (UA source) photo message confirms that Zelenskyy, during talks with Trump, noted the possibility of a "proportional exchange," as reported by WSJ, indicating a potential shift in UA's diplomatic stance. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) photo message also reports Zelenskyy did not rule out territory exchange with Trump, citing WSJ, further indicating this shift. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Zelenskyy gave Trump a golf club from a Ukrainian junior sergeant, indicating a symbolic gesture. Операция Z (RF source, referencing Russkaya Vesna) posts a photo message claiming Zelenskyy thanked Trump 11 times in five minutes, aimed at ridiculing Zelenskyy and portraying him as subservient. TASS (RF source) reports Macron named Geneva as a possible location for a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, while Reuters reported Hungary as a possibility. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) also reports a potential meeting in Hungary. Операция Z (RF source) reports Macron stating the meeting could be in Geneva, Switzerland. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) corroborates Macron's statement on Geneva. ASTRA (UA source) video features French President Emmanuel Macron discussing the ongoing conflict, emphasizing that negotiations could include a bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy in Geneva by early September, reflecting the diplomatic push for a resolution. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports that Merz cannot imagine negotiations between Putin and Zelenskyy without a ceasefire, implying a divergence in expectations for peace talks. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) commentary suggests a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy could take place in Hungary, citing Reuters, or Geneva, citing Macron, highlighting the ongoing diplomatic discussions about negotiation locations. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports that US and Europe will immediately work on security guarantees for Ukraine to open the way for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, indicating a new, coordinated diplomatic effort. TASS reports Konstantin Kosachev's statement that Brussels and Kyiv cannot "bark at Russia from behind America's back" and that times have changed, which is an RF information operation to assert Russia's perceived strength and a shift in the global power dynamic. TASS reports that Bloomberg states security guarantees for Ukraine from Europe and the US will be based on a "coalition of the willing" and could include multinational forces, signaling a possible framework for future security arrangements. Operatyvnyi ZSU (UA source) reports that Marco Rubio will lead a working group for developing security guarantees for Ukraine, citing WSJ. РБК-Україна (UA source) photo message confirms the "Coalition of the Resolute" is forming after White House talks and will be led by Starmer, indicating a potential new framework for international support. Zelenskiy / Official (UA source) photo messages confirms continued coordination with US President and European leaders, with focus on security guarantees and peace. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (UA source) shared photos from the Washington meeting and a statement from Zelenskyy emphasizing work on security guarantees. KМVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) also shared similar photo messages and Zelenskyy's statement on security guarantees. STERNENKO (UA source) also reports Zelenskyy's statement on security guarantees. TASS reports that the absence of a "scandal" at the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting is a significant step towards peace, an RF narrative. TASS reports that a Trump-Putin-Zelenskyy meeting could be held in Rome, citing Sky News, highlighting continued speculation about meeting locations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • White House Video Release: The White House has released video footage of Zelenskyy and European leaders arriving in Washington, emphasizing the diplomatic nature of the visit. RBC-Ukraine has released a photo from the White House showing Trump on a phone call with Putin, confirming the direct communication channel. Операция Z (RF source) posts a White House photo of Trump's phone call with Putin, confirming the direct communication channel and leveraging it for RF narrative control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Yerbak Photo Release: Andriy Yermak has posted a photo from the Washington meeting, indicating high-level Ukrainian participation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • General Air Threat Lifted: The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has reported that the threat for all regions has been lifted as of 190257Z AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA Leadership Video Update: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has posted a video message from President Zelenskyy summarizing the Washington negotiations. Zelenskyy mentions discussing many issues with President Trump, including the battlefield situation and steps towards peace. He also notes several meetings in formats with European leaders and the US President. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ryazan Gunpowder Plant Fatalities: TASS and ASTRA (UA source) report the number of fatalities at the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast has increased to 25. Север.Реалии (UA source) also reports 25 fatalities at the "Elastic" plant. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Zelenskyy on Bilateral/Trilateral Meetings: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Zelenskyy stated that Russia initially proposed a bilateral Ukraine-RF meeting, followed by a trilateral one. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • US State Secretary Rubio on Security Guarantees: RBC-Ukraine reports US State Secretary Marco Rubio stated that after the war, Ukraine will be able to conclude security agreements with various countries. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts a photo message reporting that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will lead a working group on security guarantees for Ukraine, citing WSJ, indicating tangible progress in diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Housing Benefits: TASS reports that the Russian government supported expanding housing benefits for military personnel with children with disabilities, indicating a domestic policy aimed at supporting military families. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF MoD Daily Figure: Минобороны России (RF source) has released its daily figure graphic, providing updated statistics on perceived Ukrainian losses, serving as a propaganda tool. MoD Russia (RF source) has provided a photo message of their daily progress report as of 19 AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kryvyi Rih Situation: Олександр Вілкул (UA source) reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 19 AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Colonelcassad (RF) Photo Messages: Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages under the caption "Moments of the SVO. Frontline daily life," depicting RF personnel, equipment, and combat situations. This provides visual confirmation of ongoing RF operations and forces, serving as morale-boosting content for the RF audience. Colonelcassad (RF source) posted multiple photo messages about the French army's new "Hunter-Killer Drone Squadron" concept, indicating RF's monitoring of Western military technological developments, potentially for future adaptation or countermeasure development. Colonelcassad (RF source) has provided a photo message showing the "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine 18 August - 19 August 2025," reinforcing RF's narrative of ongoing strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS on Vaping Ban: TASS reports on a proposal to ban vaping in Russia, which is a domestic social policy issue, unrelated to the conflict, but indicates internal governance and attempts to project normalcy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RBC Ukraine News Graphic: РБК-Україна (UA source) presents a general news graphic summarizing overnight events. (LOW CONFIDENCE - No military content.)
  • RF Domestic News (TASS): TASS reports Wildberries has launched a test display of apartments in new buildings, a domestic economic news item, unrelated to the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA Commemorative Events: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a "Minute of Silence" video. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) and Оперативний ЗСУ (UA sources) posts a "Minute of Silence" photo message. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) posts a photo message showing a "Minute of Silence" graphic. These indicate ongoing national mourning and commemoration efforts by UA authorities. КМВА (Kyiv City Military Administration) is also preparing for a large memorial event on August 29 for fallen defenders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Domestic Social Issues: Новости Москвы (RF source) reports on students being checked for adherence to traditional values, indicating tightening social control in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Humanitarian Impact in Donetsk: Mash на Донбассе (RF source) video shows residents of Donetsk experiencing severe water shortages due to infrastructure damage, highlighting direct civilian impact of the conflict. TASS also confirms this water crisis in DNR. Старше Эдды (RF source) posts a video titled "On the verge of starvation" showing dogs and puppies in an animal shelter, likely an attempt to invoke humanitarian concerns or highlight domestic issues within RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Internal Security Operations: ASTRA and TASS videos confirm FSB detention of an individual in Udmurtia, accused of planning railway sabotage and justifying terrorism. This indicates active Russian counter-terrorism/internal security measures, potentially linked to Ukrainian intelligence efforts or internal dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA Internal Economic/Financial: РБК-Україна (UA source) photo messages about currency exchange rates are a non-military, domestic economic update. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • "Two Majors" Promotion: Два майора (RF source) is promoting the sale of "Two Majors" chevrons (patches) and clothing, further indicating the normalization and commercialization of military affiliation within RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Domestic Social Policy: Новости Москвы (RF source) reports on school policy changes regarding controlled assessments, parent access to exams, and pilot implementation of behavior grades. These are domestic social policies aimed at education, unrelated to direct military operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Serbia Unrest: TASS (RF source) videos depict mass unrest in Belgrade, Serbia, including protesters, burning dumpsters, and riot police vehicles. While external to Ukraine, this indicates regional instability that could draw attention or resources. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

  • Capabilities:
    • Air/Missile/UAV: RF maintains significant capabilities for long-range missile (Iskander-M, cruise missiles from Tu-95MS) and UAV (Shahed/Geran-2) strikes targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure (energy, oil refineries, logistics hubs, gas transportation systems) and civilian areas. Confirmed strikes on Kremenchuk oil refinery, Odesa oil depot, Sloviansk, Sumy, Pavlohrad, and continued widespread UAV activity across multiple oblasts (Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kyiv) indicate an enduring intent to degrade Ukraine's logistical and energy resilience. The reported launch of 4 ballistic missiles and 140 drones overnight, with 88-236 targets reportedly shot down/suppressed by UA, underscores the sheer volume of these attacks. RF MoD confirms 23 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF territory overnight, indicating persistent UA deep strike capabilities. The latest RF video shows a successful drone strike on a UA ammunition depot and UAV control point. RF is confirmed to have attacked a gas transportation system facility in Poltava Oblast. MoD Russia video shows Geran-2 UAV teams destroyed an AFU forward command post near Birino in Chernihiv region, demonstrating RF precision strike capability against C2 nodes. RF MoD also confirmed a group strike with long-range high-precision weapons and UAVs on an oil refinery supplying fuel to the AFU grouping on Donbas. This reiterates their capability to target fuel supplies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Ground: RF continues to conduct mechanized assaults, particularly in Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovskoe directions). The 98th VDV Division is active in Chasiv Yar, and elements of 36th OA (37th OMCBR, 336th Marine Brigade) and 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment are engaged in the Pokrovsk direction and South-Donetsk direction. Use of TOS-1A (Tosochka) flamethrowers near Pokrovsk indicates continued employment of specialized, high-impact close support systems. Claims of breakthroughs and advances (e.g., towards Sokil from Ocheretyne, in Ivankiv, Poltavka, Zeleny Gay) suggest an ongoing offensive posture, though UA sources often contradict these claims with reports of repelled assaults and retaken territory. The ongoing testing of positive buoyancy body armor by "Espanola" (RF source) suggests potential for specialized operations, possibly amphibious or bridging operations, though direct link to current combat is low. MoD Russia video shows a T-80BVM tank crew from the 'Tsentr' Group eliminating a UA stronghold in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. RF MoD (Southern Grouping) video shows reactive artillery striking enemy targets in the Donetsk direction, confirming continued heavy fire support by RF ground forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Electronic Warfare (EW): A substantial increase (estimated 40%) in Russian EW emissions in the Kharkiv sector, primarily targeting UA reconnaissance UAVs, indicates a robust and evolving EW capability. This is designed to degrade UA ISR capabilities. The previously noted new EW system near Krasnohorivka remains a significant threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Artillery/Fire Support: Continued widespread use of artillery (including Grad MLRS by 238th Artillery Brigade) and FAB-series glide bombs (e.g., Myrnohrad, Ivanpillia, Rayskoe, Novosyolovka, Dobropillya) confirms RF's reliance on indirect fire to support ground operations and strike targets across the front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Covert/Sabotage Operations: The FSB's reported detention of an SBU collaborator in LNR for planning an IED attack on an RF officer, and the detention of an individual in Udmurtia for railway sabotage, confirms continued RF capabilities to identify and neutralize internal threats, and highlights UA's continued intent to conduct covert operations in occupied territories. TASS video confirms the detention of an individual in Starobilsk, LNR, accused of spying for Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Intentions:
    • Territorial Gain: Primary intention remains to consolidate and expand control in Donetsk Oblast, particularly towards Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Konstantinovka, with stated goals of liberating Krasnoarmeysk and Konstantinovka. Continued pushes in the Siversk direction to close a "fire bag" are also evident. Despite Lavrov's statements regarding not aiming for Crimea/Donbas/Novorossiya, on-the-ground actions clearly contradict this. Lavrov's statement that RF does not refuse any formats for Ukraine (bilateral or trilateral) indicates an intention to maintain diplomatic flexibility while pursuing military objectives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Degrade UA Capabilities: RF continues to target UA military infrastructure (UAV control points, repair bases, ammunition depots, rare radar systems in Crimea) and critical civilian infrastructure (energy, oil refineries, logistics, gas transportation systems), aiming to reduce UA's combat effectiveness and resilience. This includes recent strikes on fuel infrastructure and energy facilities in Poltava and Odesa, and gas transportation systems. RF is also confirmed to be targeting Starlink terminals. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Force Attrition: High volume of ground assaults and sustained missile/drone attacks aim to inflict maximum personnel and equipment losses on UA forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Information Warfare: Actively manipulating narratives around diplomatic talks, battlefield successes, and internal RF affairs to influence domestic and international audiences. RF media is heavily leveraging Trump's statements to promote their narrative regarding peace terms and territorial concessions, as well as ridiculing Zelenskyy and portraying Europe as useless. The TASS report on Russian government support for suspending debt collection in conflict zones and martial law areas aligns with RF efforts to manage domestic stability and perception of the conflict's impact on its citizens. RF is also using information operations to discredit Ukraine as a source of instability (e.g., alleged explosives smuggling). RF is also attempting to portray the US as using intelligence sharing as leverage against Ukraine, as reported by WSJ. RF is also disseminating content aimed at glorifying its forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Internal Control: Continued efforts to suppress dissent and promote state ideology within Russia, as indicated by measures like "Conversations about important things" in kindergartens and checks on students' adherence to traditional values. Continued recruitment efforts, including the "African Corps," suggest an intent to bolster manpower. Recent reports of alleged slavery on farms and harsh treatment in military camps indicate a desperate need to manage internal social unrest and manpower issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Discredit Ukraine: RF narratives aimed at portraying Ukraine as a source of instability (e.g., alleged smuggling of explosives into Moldova). TASS reporting of UA attacking a church in Belgorod Oblast is aimed at demonizing UA actions and generating public outrage in Russia. RF statements about the Crimean Bridge attack carrying explosives through Europe aims to discredit European border security and implicate Western nations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Courses of Action (COA):
    • Sustained Offensive Operations (Donetsk): Continue ground assaults, particularly in the Chasiv Yar, Pokrovskoe, and Toretsk directions, supported by heavy artillery, KABs, and increased FPV/Lancet drone usage to soften UA defenses. This includes efforts to bypass and encircle UA strongholds. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Deep Strike Campaign: Maintain high tempo of missile and UAV strikes against UA rear areas, logistics nodes, and energy infrastructure across the country, especially targeting critical fuel supplies (e.g., Kremenchuk, Odesa) and gas infrastructure. Continue to target railway logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • EW Counter-ISR: Continue to enhance and employ EW systems to disrupt UA reconnaissance, particularly UAV operations, and degrade C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Information and Influence Operations (IO/PSYOP): Leverage diplomatic discussions and battlefield claims to shape perceptions, demoralize UA forces and population, and bolster domestic support. This includes emphasizing Western divisions or concessions, and promoting narratives through state media and social media. Continue to leverage events like the Washington summit to push narratives of Western internal divisions or concessions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Internal Security Operations: Increased focus on preventing internal sabotage and maintaining domestic stability, as evidenced by FSB operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Covert Operations in Occupied Territories: Continued efforts to counter and neutralize Ukrainian intelligence operatives and saboteurs in occupied areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Cross-Border Strikes: Continue retaliatory or suppressive strikes on Ukrainian border regions (e.g., Sumy, Belgorod), including targeting civilian and religious infrastructure, possibly to draw UA forces away or exert pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

  • Increased EW in Kharkiv: A significant (40%) increase in EW emissions in Kharkiv suggests a renewed focus on degrading UA ISR in that sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Coordinated Large-Scale Drone Attacks: The multiple waves of Shahed drones targeting Kremenchuk and other central Ukrainian cities from various directions indicate sophisticated planning and execution of UAV operations, likely aimed at overwhelming air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Shifting Diplomatic Narrative (RF): RF media is actively pushing narratives that portray Trump as aligned with their objectives (e.g., no NATO for Ukraine, territorial exchange), attempting to capitalize on the recent White House meeting. RF is also using media to ridicule Zelenskyy and emphasize the alleged failure of "territorial exchange" proposals. RF media claims that US intelligence sharing with Ukraine might cease to pressure Ukraine into a deal, as stated by WSJ. Lavrov's explicit statement on RF not refusing any formats (bilateral, trilateral) suggests a more flexible diplomatic stance, possibly to appear more open to negotiations while retaining military pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Targeting Robotic Platforms: RF reports destruction of a UA robotic platform near Konstantinovka, indicating an adaptation in targeting to include UA's emerging autonomous systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Emphasis on Protective Gear (RF): RF sources highlighting the effectiveness of donated protective gear for soldiers (e.g., Buryatia soldiers) is a tactical adaptation in information messaging, aiming to improve morale and encourage public support for equipping troops. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Renewed Focus on Gas Infrastructure: RF sources mentioning "strikes on enemy gas infrastructure objects" suggests a potential new or intensified targeting priority in their strategic strikes, now confirmed by Ukrainian Ministry of Energy reports. Kotsnews reports the suspension of oil supply via Druzhba pipeline due to UA UAV attacks, implying RF is being impacted and potentially retaliating against similar infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Exploiting Diplomacy for IO: RF is actively using the recent US-Ukraine-European leader meeting to push narratives about a potential "territory exchange" by Zelenskyy and highlight divisions or concessions from the Western side. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Targeting Civilian Infrastructure for Social Disruption: The water shortage in Donetsk, whether intentional or a collateral effect, highlights a tactic of exacerbating civilian hardship. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Targeting UA Ammunition Depots and UAV CPs: The specific targeting of a UA ammunition depot and UAV control point by RF drone ("Inokhodets") indicates a continued focus on disrupting UA logistics and drone operations. The reported "Annihilation of a UAV control point of the AFU in Dimitrov" by Народная милиция ДНР further emphasizes this focus. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Targeting Railway Infrastructure: The reported explosion of a train with cisterns in Zaporizhzhia Oblast indicates a new or intensified focus on disrupting Ukrainian railway logistics. The successful drone strike by UA on a train with fuel cisterns near Molochansk confirms the vulnerability of RF railway logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Targeting High-Value Radar Systems: The destruction of the "Kasta" radar system in Crimea by UA indicates an adaptation by UA to target high-value RF ISR assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Adaptation in Domestic Social Control: The allegations of forced labor and child abuse in military camps, along with strict legal measures against dissent, suggest that RF authorities are willing to use extreme measures to maintain control and achieve objectives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

  • Ammunition & Fuel: RF continues high-volume artillery and missile strikes, suggesting adequate, though not unlimited, ammunition supplies. Recent UA strikes on fuel infrastructure (Kremenchuk oil refinery, Odesa SOCAR oil depot) and gas transportation systems could impact RF logistics if UA is able to sustain these strikes, although the initial impact on RF is not specified. UA claims to have completely destroyed the "Druzhba" oil pipeline (if confirmed) would be a significant blow to RF energy infrastructure, impacting broader supply chains; Kotsnews reports suspension of flow due to UA UAV attacks. The successful interdiction of the RF train with fuel and ordnance in Zaporizhzhia Oblast will have a localized negative impact on RF logistics and sustainment. The reported 25 fatalities at the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast indicates a significant blow to RF's domestic arms industry. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - UA claim on Druzhba needs independent verification for full impact assessment, but confirmed train strike and Ryazan fatalities are high confidence)
  • Personnel & Equipment: RF continues to absorb significant personnel losses (UA claims 890-1010 RF personnel liquidated in 24h). Appeals for donations for drones and Starlink by RF servicemen (e.g., 7th Airborne Division) and for "motorized rifle units and special forces" (Poddubny) suggest ongoing logistical needs and reliance on public support for certain equipment, indicating potential shortages in high-tech or specialized gear provided by the state. Reports of RF personnel being forced to sign military contracts in Russia (Moscow Oblast farmers) and alleged slavery on farms (Voronezh Oblast) suggest internal difficulties in meeting recruitment quotas and severe human rights abuses. Recruitment for the "African Corps" indicates a search for additional manpower sources. The "Two Majors" merchandise promotion suggests a more normalized, almost commercial approach to military affiliation in Russia, possibly to encourage recruitment or public support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Training and Reserves: WarGonzo's claim of North Korean tank crews preparing for combat in Ukraine, if substantiated, would indicate an attempt to bolster RF combat capabilities with external support, possibly due to internal training or personnel shortfalls. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Needs independent verification)
  • Overall: Despite reported losses and ongoing logistical challenges, RF appears to maintain sufficient sustainment for current offensive operations and deep strikes, though the quality and motivation of new recruits remains a question. Russian government supporting suspension of debt collection in conflict zones indicates measures to mitigate financial strain on military families or those under martial law. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

  • Ground Operations: Previous reporting indicated poor artillery coordination and tactical-level command friction within the 1st Army Corps (Avdiivka sector). While not explicitly updated, the continued emphasis on high-intensity assaults in areas like Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk may put continued strain on RF tactical C2. The MoD Russia video showing a T-80BVM tank crew "eliminating a stronghold" in the Krasnoarmeysk direction suggests continued, albeit sometimes localized, effective tactical C2. The video from Операция Z from Pokrovsk also suggests coordinated ground attacks, albeit with drone support. RF MoD (Southern Grouping) video of reactive artillery in Donetsk direction shows tactical-level fire support. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
  • Strategic Level: Putin's active diplomatic engagement (calls with nine foreign leaders in three days, including Trump) suggests central strategic control over foreign policy and peace initiatives. The coordination of large-scale, multi-wave UAV attacks indicates effective strategic and operational level planning and execution for aerial strikes. Lavrov's statement about RF's openness to various diplomatic formats (bilateral, trilateral) reinforces a centralized, flexible C2 over diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • EW C2: The observed increase in EW emissions in Kharkiv, if sustained and coordinated, indicates effective C2 over these specialized assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Security C2: The FSB's reported prevention of a second Crimean Bridge attack, the apprehension of a saboteur in Udmurtia, and the detention of an SBU collaborator in LNR demonstrate effective internal security C2, aimed at preventing hybrid threats within RF territory and occupied areas. The TASS video of the FSB detention in Starobilsk further confirms this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

  • Defensive Posture (East): UA forces continue to maintain a defensive posture along the eastern front, particularly in Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk directions), executing tactical withdrawals to prepared positions where necessary. Despite RF claims of breakthroughs, UA reports successful repels and counter-DRG operations (e.g., Azov Brigade in Katerynivka, paratroopers in Pokrovsk). UA forces cleared several settlements in Donetsk Oblast (Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, Zolotyi Kolodyaz) indicating local counter-offensive capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Counter-Offensive Operations: UA 93rd Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" successfully cleared and took control of Hruzke and Vesele near Dobropillya, supported by tanks and ground robotic systems. The "SKALA" Regiment conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. UA forces are also expanding their buffer zone in the Sumy region. The "Predators of the Heights" tactical group successfully destroyed an RF vehicle with ammunition in the Pokrovsk direction. These indicate continued localized offensive capabilities and initiative. The 61st Separate Steppe Mechanized Brigade is actively liquidating Russian forces via drone strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Air Defense: UA air defense is actively engaged against RF missile and UAV attacks, reporting 88-236 enemy targets shot down/suppressed from an estimated 140 drones and 4 missiles overnight. This demonstrates continued, albeit strained, air defense effectiveness. The successful destruction of a rare "Kasta" radar in Crimea further demonstrates UA's ability to degrade RF ISR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Deep Strike Capabilities: UA continues to conduct deep strikes into RF territory, successfully targeting oil refineries (Syzran, Volgograd), a seaport (Olya), and a gunpowder workshop (Ryazan), indicating an active and evolving long-range strike capability. The confirmed fatality count at the Ryazan plant underscores the impact of these strikes. The alleged destruction of the "Druzhba" oil pipeline, if confirmed, would be a significant escalation of UA's deep strike capabilities. UA forces also successfully struck a train with cisterns carrying fuel and ordnance in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Impact of Druzhba claim still requires verification, but confirmed train strike and Ryazan fatalities are high confidence)
  • ISR & Drone Operations: UA forces are effectively utilizing drones for reconnaissance (e.g., 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade in Kharkiv) and combat operations (e.g., 3rd Assault Brigade in Kharkiv, Phoenix UAS in Konstantinovka direction for logistics interdiction, 414th UAV Brigade "Birds of Madyar" in Pokrovsk direction). The YOKAI GROUP's reported shootdown of a new Russian V2U UAV demonstrates effective counter-UAV capabilities. UA continues to procure FPV drones, with +300 purchased in the last day. STERNENKO (UA source) reports donor support for drones used in the Tokmak train strike, indicating a functional volunteer-supply chain. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video indicates effective drone use against enemy infantry. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Resilience & Morale: Despite heavy civilian casualties from RF strikes (e.g., Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia), UA units continue to fight, and authorities maintain public services and commemorative efforts. The coordinated visits by the Coordination Staff with families of missing and captured defenders suggest efforts to maintain morale and support. UA General Staff photos of soldiers training in camouflage and conducting obstacle course training demonstrate ongoing efforts to enhance skills and readiness. General Staff photos of UA military training in Great Britain as part of Operation Interflex further demonstrates continued efforts to enhance skills and readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Military Development & Innovation: The Ministry of Defense launching a unified platform for armament manufacturers indicates a focus on domestic military industrial development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Parliamentary Operations: Stefanyshyn (UA source) announces the return of parliamentary broadcasts, indicating efforts to restore governmental normalcy and transparency. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Counter-Intelligence/Internal Security: SBU reports uncovering an RF military intelligence agent group in Kyiv and Odesa, demonstrating effective counter-intelligence capabilities. Investigations into RF war crimes (e.g., Vovchansk) demonstrate legal and accountability efforts. SBU and National Police liquidating draft evasion schemes demonstrates commitment to strengthening mobilization. The SBU claim of strategic aviation missile reduction after "Web" operation is likely an information operation, but confirms SBU focus on this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Leadership Changes: The appointment of Major Daniel "Cuba" Kitone as the new commander of the 13th NGU Brigade "Khartia" indicates ongoing leadership adjustments and integration of new personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

  • Successes:
    • Territorial Gains: Reclaiming Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz in Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Offensive Operations: "SKALA" Regiment's successful operation on the Dnipropetrovsk-Donetsk border. Successful drone strike on RF ammunition vehicle in Pokrovsk direction. 61st Separate Steppe Mechanized Brigade liquidating Russian forces. Expanding buffer zone in Sumy region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Personnel Attrition: Consistent reports of high RF personnel losses (890-1010 in 24h). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Deep Strikes: Successful long-range strikes on RF critical infrastructure (oil refineries, gunpowder plant, potentially Druzhba pipeline, gas transportation systems). Confirmed strike on a train with cisterns carrying fuel and ordnance in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Destruction of a rare "Kasta" radar system in Crimea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Air Defense Effectiveness: Downing a significant portion of RF drones and missiles in recent mass attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Counter-DRG Operations: Successful clearance of Russian DRGs in Pokrovsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Prisoner Capture: Capture of an RF prisoner from the 150th Division by Azov units, and a prisoner from the 35th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade near Muravka, Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Counter-Intelligence: SBU uncovering RF agent group in Kyiv and Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Setbacks:
    • Territorial Losses: Tactical withdrawal in Chasiv Yar Kanal microdistrict. RF claimed advances towards Sokil from Ocheretyne, and alleged occupation of two unnamed settlements in Donetsk Oblast. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF claims often inflated)
    • Civilian Casualties & Infrastructure Damage: Heavy civilian casualties (7 fatalities, 23 injured in Kharkiv; 3 fatalities, 34 injured in Zaporizhzhia; 1 fatality, 1 injured in Dobropillya) and widespread damage to civilian infrastructure (residential buildings, educational institutions, energy facilities, gas transportation systems, church) from RF missile and drone strikes. Discovery of unexploded cluster munitions in Kremenchuk poses a significant ongoing threat. Power outages in Chernihiv and water shortages in Donetsk also impact daily life. RF claims to have destroyed a French Caesar SPG in Dnipropetrovsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • EW Degradation of ISR: Increased RF EW emissions in Kharkiv degrading UA reconnaissance UAV capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • "Lack of Infantry": UA sources reporting a critical "lack of infantry" in the Pokrovskoe direction suggests a significant personnel challenge. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA source self-reporting)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

  • Personnel: Reports of a "critical lack of infantry" in the Pokrovskoe direction suggest an urgent need for additional ground forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Air Defense Systems & Munitions: While UA air defense shows effectiveness, the high volume of RF missile and drone attacks implies a constant drain on air defense interceptor stocks, necessitating continuous resupply. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Counter-EW Capabilities: The increased RF EW activity highlights a critical need for enhanced UA counter-EW capabilities, including hardened ISR platforms and anti-radiation munitions, to counter enemy jamming. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Military Aid: Zelenskyy's statement about proposing a $90 billion arms deal to the US, including aircraft and air defense, underscores the significant material requirements for sustained defense and future operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Logistics & Repair: Continued attacks on logistics hubs (Pokrovsk train station, Nova Poshta terminals, railway connections) and energy infrastructure (oil refineries, substations, gas transportation systems) necessitate resilient logistics and rapid repair capabilities. The discovery of unexploded cluster munitions in Kremenchuk will hinder recovery and repair efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Humanitarian Aid: Significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in multiple regions (Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Poltava, Dobropillya, Belgorod) require substantial humanitarian aid, medical supplies, and reconstruction efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Counter-Corruption: Continued efforts to combat corruption and draft evasion schemes are important for maximizing available resources. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

  • RF Propaganda:
    • Narrative Control over Diplomacy: RF media (TASS, WarGonzo, Operation Z, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, Two Majors, Kotsnews, Basurin, Konstantin Kosachev) is actively framing Trump's statements as concessions beneficial to Russia (no NATO for Ukraine, territorial exchange, direct talks with Putin). They are also ridiculing Zelenskyy's appearance and diplomatic efforts to undermine his international standing. RF is actively promoting the narrative of a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, including proposing locations, to project a proactive peace-seeking image. The TASS reports on Putin-Trump souvenirs and Alex Parker Returns' mocking of Zelenskyy's attire or gifts are part of this. TASS reports Lavrov stating a good atmosphere at the RF-US summit and Trump's sincere desire for peace. RF sources are attempting to frame US intelligence sharing as a tool for pressure on Ukraine, as indicated by WSJ. Lavrov's statement that Russia never aimed to acquire Crimea, Donbas, or Novorossiya, but to protect Russian people, is a clear information operation designed to redefine war aims and legitimize past actions. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition amplifies Macron's perceived "perverted concept of peace" to discredit Western positions. Lavrov's statement that RF does not refuse any formats for Ukraine (bilateral or trilateral) also serves to portray Russia as flexible and open to dialogue. TASS reports that the map of Ukraine in the Oval Office demonstrated US support for Russia, implying a shift in US stance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Exaggerated Battlefield Successes: Continued claims of "liberation" of settlements (e.g., Iskra, Kolodezi, Voronoye) and significant UA losses (4,500 personnel in Luhansk over the past week) are likely inflated to boost domestic morale and project strength. The MoD Russia daily figure graphic serves this purpose. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Legitimizing Annexed Territories: RF sources repeatedly display maps showing "new Russian regions and Crimea" to reinforce their claims of sovereignty, and the Sky News segment on Crimea's history is selectively amplified. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Demonizing UA: Accusations of UA targeting civilians and framing attacks as "terrorist acts" (e.g., Smolensk NPP, Crimean Bridge, alleged explosive smuggling into Moldova, church attack in Belgorod) are used to justify RF actions. The claim that UA forces struck Russian cities prior to the summit to disrupt diplomacy is a clear example. Claims that the Crimean Bridge explosion involved explosives transported through Europe aims to discredit European security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Internal Cohesion: Propaganda efforts to highlight Russian public support for the military (e.g., donated protective gear, family service appeals) and domestic social initiatives (housing benefits, "Conversations about important things," school policy changes) aim to foster internal unity and stability. The TASS report on suspending debt collection and the naming of a street after General Kirillov are also part of this. MOБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) video of a man complaining about officials calling to the front but not helping military personnel is likely used to pressure officials, but also reveals internal discord that could be exploited by UA. "Two Majors" merchandise helps normalize military affiliation. The reporting on stripping citizenship from a local diaspora leader serves to project internal control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Portraying Europe as "Useless": RF sources are actively dismissing European contributions or influence in diplomatic efforts to create divisions in Western support. TASS reports Mark Almond stating that Russia continues to win the Ukrainian crisis, despite EU leaders' optimism, is a clear example of this narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Discrediting UA Personnel/Leadership: The video from БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС featuring Pavel Gubarev's comments about killing Ukrainians, while intended as a critical exposure by UA, also highlights the dehumanizing rhetoric within RF circles. Alex Parker Returns' disparaging remarks about Zelenskyy are consistent. TASS reporting Lavrov's comments about Zelenskyy needing to start with the first articles of the Ukrainian constitution guaranteeing rights for Russian-speaking populations is a diplomatic information operation aimed at justifying RF's actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA Counter-Propaganda:
    • Highlighting RF Attrition: Consistent reporting of high RF personnel losses serves to demoralize the enemy and rally domestic support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Showcasing UA Successes: Prompt dissemination of BDA on repelled assaults, captured prisoners, and retaken territory aims to counter RF claims and maintain morale. UA General Staff's documentary promotion fits this. Prompt reporting of successful deep strikes and interdiction of RF logistics (e.g., Tokmak train strike, Kasta radar destruction) serves to counter RF narratives and demonstrate UA capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Documenting Civilian Impact: Immediate reporting and visual evidence of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from RF strikes aims to galvanize international support and highlight RF war crimes. The images from Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kremenchuk, and Dobropillya clearly serve this purpose. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Promoting Unity and Resilience: Commemorative events and public statements from leadership aim to maintain national resolve. UA General Staff showcasing camouflage training emphasizes professionalism and readiness. UA photo messages on "Games of the Unbreakable" highlights national resilience and support for those impacted by the conflict. Training in Great Britain highlights international support. Civilian initiatives supporting the front from Kryvyi Rih. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Parliamentary Transparency: The announcement of the return of Rada broadcasts is a move to promote transparency and maintain public trust. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Exposing RF Covert Ops: SBU's exposure of RF agent groups in Kyiv and Odesa, and trials for war crimes, serve to highlight RF's hybrid warfare tactics and strengthen national security. The SBU claim of strategic aviation missile reduction after "Web" operation is likely an information operation, but indicates SBU focus on this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

  • Ukrainian Public:
    • Impact of Strikes: Civilian casualties in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dobropillya, and infrastructure damage in Poltava and Odesa, will significantly strain public morale and increase calls for enhanced air defense. Mandatory evacuations (Druzhkivka) also indicate disruption and fear. The discovery of unexploded cluster munitions in Kremenchuk will heighten anxiety and anger. Power outages in Chernihiv and water shortages in Donetsk also impact daily life. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Resilience: Despite the attacks, public sentiment generally remains resolute, driven by national unity and commitment to defense, as evidenced by commemorative events. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Diplomatic Expectations: The Trump-Zelenskyy meeting likely generated high expectations for continued and increased international support, making any perceived compromises or ambiguities in foreign aid particularly impactful. The WSJ report on potential "territory exchange" will be a sensitive point for public morale, requiring careful communication from leadership. Zelenskyy's emphasis on "security guarantees" directly addresses public anxieties about future safety. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Internal Security Concerns: Reports of draft evasion schemes, while indicating success in combating corruption, can also highlight challenges in mobilization efforts and public compliance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Russian Public:
    • Domestic Control: Tightening internal controls on information and suppression of dissent (e.g., pensioner jailed for "rehabilitating Nazism," postal worker for online comments, "Conversations about important things" in kindergartens, "foreign agent" tax benefits, charges against a blogger, Supreme Court upholding verdict for "justifying terrorism," school policy changes) indicate efforts to control public sentiment and prevent internal unrest. The criminal charges against the founder of the Nikita Efremov brand for FBK donations further reinforce this. Reports of alleged forced labor and child abuse in military camps indicate significant internal social issues that could impact public trust. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Recruitment Pressure: Reports of forced military contracts and appeals for donations for military equipment suggest increasing societal pressure and potential fatigue related to the conflict. The "African Corps" recruitment also highlights ongoing manpower needs. The video from МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники complaining about officials not helping military personnel suggests simmering discontent regarding social support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Economic Impact: Domestic news on housing benefits and pension increases suggests an attempt to mitigate the economic strain on the population. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Propaganda Consumption: The widespread promotion of narratives from the Alaska summit (Putin-Trump souvenirs) indicates an effort to shape public perception of RF's international standing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Humanitarian Concerns: "On the verge of starvation" video about animal welfare could be an attempt to address or deflect from broader humanitarian concerns within Russia, or subtly signal resource scarcity. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Interpretive, but possible)
    • Regional Instability: Reports of unrest in Belgrade, Serbia, while external, could be used by RF media to highlight global instability and justify their own actions or to distract from domestic issues. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Indirect impact)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

  • Washington Summit (Trump-Zelenskyy-European Leaders):
    • Key Outcomes (Preliminary):
      • Territorial Questions: Zelenskyy confirmed discussion of "sensitive territorial questions" and did not rule out "proportional exchange" with Trump, as reported by WSJ. This is a significant potential shift in UA's public negotiating position. Trump also stated that territory exchange based on current front lines would be discussed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Analytical Judgment based on WSJ report)
      • NATO Membership: Trump stated Ukraine would not be in NATO but would have security guarantees. NATO Secretary General Rutte reiterated an "irreversible path" for Ukraine into NATO but that membership is not currently being discussed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • Security Guarantees: Discussions ongoing for security guarantees involving European and non-European countries, to be formulated within 7-10 days. Trump stated Putin agreed to security guarantees. US State Secretary Rubio will lead a working group on security guarantees. Bloomberg reports these guarantees could include multinational forces. Zelenskyy states work on concrete content of security guarantees is ongoing. A "Coalition of the Resolute" is forming, led by Starmer, to develop these guarantees. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • Arms Sales/Aid: Zelenskyy proposed a $90 billion arms procurement deal. Trump indicated a shift towards "selling" rather than "giving" weapons, but Rutte confirmed US arms supplies would continue through NATO. US State Secretary Rubio discussed a new mechanism for providing American weapons. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • Ceasefire/Negotiations: Trump expressed confidence in peace being agreed during combat operations and stated a ceasefire is not required as a condition for further talks. Macron proposed Geneva as a location for a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, while Reuters reported Hungary or Rome (Sky News) as possibilities. RF sources are pushing for a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting. The US and Europe will immediately work on security guarantees to pave the way for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting. Merz cannot imagine negotiations between Putin and Zelenskyy without a ceasefire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • POW Release: Trump expressed confidence in releasing over 1,000 POWs soon. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Challenges/Ambiguities: Despite the public display of unity, there remain ambiguities regarding the specifics of security guarantees, the terms of a potential peace deal, and the long-term commitment of US aid under a potential Trump administration. The cancellation of a joint statement is noteworthy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Black Sea Security: Romania's desire to expand joint Black Sea patrolling with Bulgaria and Turkey indicates continued regional efforts to bolster maritime security amidst ongoing conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Reaction to RF Actions: Ursula von der Leyen's statement on returning abducted Ukrainian children highlights international focus on Russian war crimes. The Global Times framing the conflict as an "expensive lesson for Europe" reflects a Chinese/RF narrative aimed at fostering European disunity. Prime Minister of Japan Shigeru Ishiba's statement on innocent deaths reflects growing international concern. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Putin's Diplomatic Engagements: Putin's calls with nine foreign leaders post-Alaska summit (including Trump) indicate active Russian diplomatic efforts to shape the international discourse and project an image of constructive engagement. Lavrov's statement that RF does not refuse any formats for Ukraine (bilateral or trilateral) also serves to project diplomatic flexibility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • French Drone Development: Colonelcassad's detailed reporting on the French army's new "Hunter-Killer Drone Squadron" suggests RF is closely monitoring Western military innovation, likely for adapting their own tactics or developing countermeasures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Continued Training Support: Photos of UA soldiers training in the UK under Operation Interflex confirms continued international support for UA force generation and training. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

  • MLCOA 1: Sustained High-Intensity Offensive in Donetsk Oblast: RF will continue to focus their main effort on the Donetsk axis, particularly Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Konstantinovka. This will involve continued battalion-sized mechanized assaults, supported by heavy artillery, KABs, and increased FPV/Lancet drone usage to soften UA defenses. The objective remains to expand control and create conditions for further advances toward key urban centers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Indicators: Continued heavy shelling, daily ground assaults, RF reporting of marginal territorial gains, and increased reconnaissance drone activity in these areas.
  • MLCOA 2: Intensified Deep Strike Campaign: RF will maintain or increase the tempo of precision missile and mass UAV attacks across Ukraine, with a primary focus on critical civilian infrastructure, particularly energy facilities, oil refineries, and logistics hubs (e.g., Kremenchuk, Odesa), including gas transportation systems and railway networks. This is aimed at degrading Ukraine's economic and logistical capacity, undermining morale, and depleting UA air defense munitions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Indicators: Continued strategic bomber activity (Tu-95MS), multiple waves of Shahed drone launches, and targeting of newly identified energy, gas, or logistics nodes.
  • MLCOA 3: Information Operations to Leverage Diplomatic Ambiguity: RF will exploit any perceived ambiguities or shifts in the US/Western negotiating position (e.g., "territory exchange," "no NATO for Ukraine," "selling weapons") to sow discord within Ukraine, erode international support, and boost domestic morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Indicators: Prominent RF media coverage of Trump's statements, emphasis on potential Ukrainian concessions, and attempts to frame Western aid as weakening or conditional.
  • MLCOA 4: Continued Cross-Border Pressure on Border Regions: RF will continue to conduct limited cross-border strikes into Ukrainian border regions (e.g., Sumy, Kharkiv) and potentially intensify attacks on RF border regions (e.g., Belgorod) if UA continues its deep strikes. This aims to fix UA forces in these areas and create a defensive burden. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Indicators: Continued shelling, drone activity, and localized probing attacks in Sumy and Kharkiv border areas. Increased RF reports of UA cross-border shelling and drone attacks on RF territory.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

  • MDCOA 1: Breakthrough and Encirclement in Pokrovskoe Direction: Given the reported "lack of infantry" in the Pokrovskoe direction and RF's claimed advances towards Sokil, RF forces could concentrate sufficient combat power (including reserves, potentially from Kharkiv if National Guard units are indeed redeployed) to achieve a significant operational breakthrough, threatening to cut off or encircle a substantial portion of UA forces in the area or advance rapidly towards Konstantinovka. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
    • Indicators: Large-scale, multi-echelon ground assaults, increased use of overwhelming fire support (TOS-1A, mass artillery), and successful disruption of UA C2 and logistics in the immediate area.
  • MDCOA 2: Strategic Infrastructure Paralysis via Concentrated Strikes: RF could execute a highly coordinated and overwhelming series of missile and drone strikes aimed at simultaneously incapacitating multiple critical energy, fuel, gas, and transportation hubs across Ukraine, potentially including simultaneous attacks on power grids and railway networks, potentially in conjunction with cyber attacks. This would aim to create widespread panic and cripple UA's ability to sustain military operations and civil society. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
    • Indicators: Unusually high number of simultaneous air raid alerts across multiple regions, targeting of diverse infrastructure types (railways, power plants, fuel depots, gas facilities) in a single strike wave, and evidence of successful cyberattacks on critical infrastructure.
  • MDCOA 3: Diversionary Offensive from Northern Border: RF could launch a limited, yet tactically significant, ground offensive from the northern border regions (e.g., Sumy Oblast) with the intent to draw UA forces away from the eastern front, thereby creating vulnerabilities for the main Donetsk offensive. While unlikely to achieve deep penetration, even a limited thrust could strain UA reserves. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
    • Indicators: Increased RF troop concentrations and border incursions in Sumy/Chernihiv, reports of small-scale ground clashes, and significant RF fire activity (artillery, KABs) in these northern border areas.
  • MDCOA 4: Escalation of Hybrid Warfare in Key Cities: RF could intensify covert operations, sabotage, and cyberattacks in major Ukrainian cities (e.g., Kyiv, Odesa) in conjunction with military pressure, aiming to create internal instability and distract from frontline operations. This includes direct targeting of civilian institutions (e.g., car bombings) and attempts to disrupt mobilization. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
    • Indicators: Increase in reported SBU counter-intelligence operations, arrests of agents, unexplained explosions or incidents in urban centers, and increased cyberattack frequency on critical government or social infrastructure.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

  • Immediate (0-24 hours): Continued high-intensity ground combat in Donetsk Oblast, particularly Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk. Risk of further widespread RF missile/UAV attacks overnight, especially targeting energy, gas, and logistics. UA air defense will remain on high alert. Decision Point: Assessment of actual impact of diplomatic talks on RF strategy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Short-Term (24-72 hours): RF will likely consolidate any recent territorial gains and prepare for follow-on assaults in Donetsk if current offensives yield results. UA will focus on reinforcing defensive lines and continuing counter-battery fire and deep strikes. Continued international diplomatic engagement on peace proposals, with focus on security guarantees and potential future meetings. Decision Point: UA decision on further troop redeployments based on front-line pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Medium-Term (72 hours - 1 week): The diplomatic discourse from the Washington summit will continue to unfold, potentially influencing the intensity and focus of combat operations. RF may calibrate its offensive efforts based on perceived Western unity or division. UA will seek to leverage international support to address critical resource requirements (infantry, air defense munitions). Decision Point: Formulation of concrete security guarantees for Ukraine by international partners and progress on logistics for the proposed arms deal. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Long-Term (1-3 weeks): The possibility of a bilateral or trilateral meeting between Putin, Zelenskyy, and potentially Trump/European leaders will likely drive diplomatic efforts. The outcomes of these talks, particularly regarding territorial questions and security guarantees, will significantly shape the long-term trajectory of the conflict. RF may seek to exploit any perceived concessions from Ukraine or divisions within Western support during this period. Decision Point: Confirmation of specific dates and formats for high-level negotiations and their initial outcomes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

  • PIR 1: RF Intentions Regarding Zaporizhzhia Front: (What is the true scale and intent of RF force concentration in Zaporizhzhia, and are they preparing for a large-scale breakthrough as suggested by Syrskyi? What is the impact of the railway interdiction in Zaporizhzhia?)
    • Collection Requirements: Increased ISR (SIGINT, IMINT, OSINT) on RF troop movements, equipment staging, and logistical build-up in the Zaporizhzhia sector. Analysis of RF statements on this axis. Damage assessment of the railway interdiction.
  • PIR 2: Specifics of New RF EW System: (What are the precise capabilities, frequencies, and effective range of the new Russian EW system near Krasnohorivka?)
    • Collection Requirements: Dedicated ELINT missions, ground-based EW detection, and analysis of observed UA UAV signal degradation or communication interference.
  • PIR 3: Status of "Druzhba" Oil Pipeline and Impact: (Has the "Druzhba" oil pipeline been completely destroyed by UA forces, and what is the confirmed impact on Russian energy exports and internal supply?)
    • Collection Requirements: Satellite imagery of the pipeline in relevant areas, OSINT monitoring of energy markets and RF internal reporting, and verification from UA sources.
  • PIR 4: RF Manpower Generation Effectiveness: (What is the real impact of RF recruitment efforts, including forced contracts and alleged slavery, on the quality and morale of frontline units?)
    • Collection Requirements: Interrogation of new RF POWs, analysis of social media sentiment within Russia, and monitoring of open-source reports on recruitment practices.
  • PIR 5: Detailed Diplomatic Outcomes and Implications: (What are the exact, unstated agreements or disagreements from the Trump-Zelenskyy-European leader meetings, and how will they influence military aid and future peace talks, especially concerning territorial discussions?)
    • Collection Requirements: In-depth analysis of official statements and unofficial leaks from all parties, as well as third-party analyses by reputable international media and think tanks. Close monitoring of RF and UA diplomatic statements regarding "territorial exchange" and future meeting formats/locations.
  • PIR 6: Extent of SBU Counter-Offensive Operations in Occupied Territories: (What is the scale and intent of SBU operations in RF-occupied areas, particularly regarding sabotage and targeting of RF personnel and high-value targets like radar systems?)
    • Collection Requirements: HUMINT from returned POWs, OSINT on RF internal security reports, and analysis of sabotage incidents in occupied territories, particularly BDA on high-value targets.
  • PIR 7: Impact of Solar Flares on Battlefield Communications: (What is the precise impact of predicted magnetic storms on UA and RF communications, ISR, and GPS-reliant systems?)
    • Collection Requirements: Direct monitoring of communication degradation, GPS accuracy fluctuations, and satellite imagery quality during the period of intensified magnetic storms.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

  • TO UA FORCES (OPERATIONAL/TACTICAL):
    • Prioritize EW Countermeasures: Immediately implement and enforce redundant and hardened communication protocols, and enhance anti-drone measures in the Kharkiv sector due to increased EW threat. Develop and deploy counter-EW capabilities targeting the new system near Krasnohorivka. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
    • Reinforce Pokrovskoe Direction: Allocate immediate infantry and specialized anti-armor reserves to the Pokrovskoe direction, particularly around Sokil, Udachne, and Pervoye Maya, to counter potential RF breakthroughs given reported infantry shortages. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
    • Strengthen Air Defense: Disperse air defense assets and maintain high readiness, especially around critical infrastructure and major urban centers, in anticipation of continued large-scale RF missile/UAV attacks targeting energy, gas, and logistics. Prioritize resupply of interceptor missiles, potentially utilizing the proposed $90 billion US arms procurement. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
    • Exploit RF C2 Weaknesses: Continue to identify and exploit observed weaknesses in RF tactical C2 and fire support coordination through precision strikes on command nodes and communication assets. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM)
    • Maintain Deep Strike Pressure: Continue targeting RF logistics and military industrial complex in depth, particularly fuel depots, gas transportation systems, railway infrastructure, and manufacturing sites, to degrade RF sustainment capabilities. Verify and confirm the impact of strikes on targets like the "Druzhba" pipeline for strategic planning. Prioritize targeting of high-value RF ISR assets, similar to the "Kasta" radar system. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM)
    • Mitigate UXO Threat: Implement immediate and widespread public awareness campaigns in recently attacked areas (e.g., Kremenchuk) regarding unexploded cluster munitions, and allocate increased EOD teams to these areas for rapid clearance. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
    • Strengthen Counter-Intelligence: Bolster SBU and National Police capabilities to identify and neutralize RF agent networks and draft evasion schemes, particularly in key urban centers and border regions. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
    • Monitor Solar Weather Impact: Advise all units to be aware of potential disruptions to satellite communications, GPS, and radio signals due to expected magnetic storms and implement backup communication plans. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM)
  • TO UA LEADERSHIP (STRATEGIC):
    • Clarify Diplomatic Stance: Publicly clarify Ukraine's negotiating red lines, particularly regarding territorial concessions, to manage public expectations and counter RF information operations, especially in light of recent WSJ reporting. Emphasize that any "exchange" would be proportional and mutually agreed, not a unilateral concession. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
    • Advocate for Expedited Aid: Leverage diplomatic engagements to push for expedited delivery of proposed military aid, especially air defense systems and aircraft, and advocate for sustained, unconditional military and financial support. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
    • Focus on Humanitarian Response: Ensure robust and timely humanitarian aid delivery and reconstruction efforts in areas affected by RF strikes to maintain civilian morale and stability. Prioritize assistance to areas with high civilian casualties and infrastructure damage (Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kremenchuk, Odesa, Dobropillya, Donetsk water crisis). (PRIORITY: HIGH)
    • Counter RF Diplomatic Narratives: Proactively counter RF information operations attempting to frame diplomatic discussions as solely beneficial to Russia or as a sign of Ukrainian weakness. Highlight international unity and ongoing commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
    • Develop Comprehensive Security Guarantees: Work swiftly with international partners to finalize the framework for comprehensive security guarantees, ensuring they address Ukraine's long-term defense needs and act as a deterrent to future aggression. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
    • Maintain Transparency on Mobilization: Publicly address challenges in infantry recruitment and outline clear plans to enhance mobilization and training, while demonstrating efforts to combat related corruption. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM)
Previous (2025-08-19 10:15:20Z)

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