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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-08-19 07:14:59Z
6 months ago
Previous (2025-08-19 06:46:08Z)

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 190711Z AUG 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

  • Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske Axis): RF forces maintain a confirmed foothold in the eastern Kanal microdistrict of Chasiv Yar, continuing battalion-sized mechanized assaults. UA units executed tactical withdrawal to prepared defensive positions west of the initial line of contact. Clashes persist near Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, Oleksandra-Kalynove, and Pleschiyivka. UA 93rd Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" successfully cleared and took control of Hruzke and Vesele near Dobropillya, capturing an RF prisoner, indicating localized UA counter-offensive success and stabilization in the Dobropillya area. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and towards Bondarne in the Kramatorsk direction. Rybar (RF source) animated maps indicate Russian advances around Chasov Yar and Katerinovka, with pushes towards Konstantinovka and along the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal, suggesting continued RF focus on consolidating and expanding territorial gains. OSUV "Dnipro" states Russians have occupied two settlements in Donetsk Oblast (unnamed). RF MoD reports Russian artillery destroyed a mortar and a UA UAV control point, likely in Donetsk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) and Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) videos show Azov Brigade successfully repelling a powerful enemy attack and preventing consolidation in Katerynivka, Toretsk direction. This contradicts previous RF claims of gains and indicates effective UA defensive action. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts new video showing drones "clearing strongholds" and covering "our assault teams" in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. RF sources (RBC-Ukraine) report explosions in occupied Donetsk, with complaints of unknown drone attacks. ASTRA (UA source) reports explosions and a subsequent fire in Donetsk, citing local residents. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue in Donetsk Oblast. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) has posted multiple photo messages that appear to be maps or operational summaries of activity in the Siversk direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts new video showing 93rd Mechanized Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" conducting clearance operations of the village of Vesele in the Dobropillya area, supported by tanks and multiple ground robotic systems equipped with machine guns. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video footage of the 85th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (OMCBR) operating on the Soledar direction, showing drone footage of a wooded area with debris and smoke from impacts, and a destroyed trench system. Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) claims RF 36th OA forces (37th OMCBR, 336th Marine Brigade) are likely to force UA to abandon Maliyivka and are advancing from Shevchenko to Yanvarske, though with limited success. STERNENKO (UA source) posts video of the 3rd SSO Regiment (POPRYVSE) burying RF personnel under collapsed buildings in the Pokrovsk direction. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UA source) posts a photo message claiming "successfully demobilized" RF personnel. Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) posts video claiming destruction of a UA 2S1 Self-Propelled Howitzer near Konstantinovka. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Predtechyne, Oleksandro-Shultyne and Bila Hora in Kramatorsk direction. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) photo message indicates UA forces are having success in several directions in Donetsk Oblast, specifically listing Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz cleared by elements of the 1st Azov Corps. This directly contradicts prior RF claims of gains and confirms UA regaining territory. ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA (RF source) posts a strategic overview map of the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya direction. Воин DV (RF source) video shows drone footage of engagements on the South-Donetsk direction by the 57th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, depicting successful strikes on RF positions, equipment, and personnel. A photo message from "Сливочный каприз" (RF source) indicates current RF claimed positions between Dobropillya and Zolotyi Kolodyaz. Colonelcassad (RF source) has provided a photo message with no caption. TASS reports that RF forces struck UA units with FAB bombs in Myrnohrad and Ivanpillia, DNR. MoD Russia video shows aerial footage of an urban area, with multiple large explosions and plumes of smoke, indicating ongoing shelling or airstrikes in Donetsk People's Republic. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows a drone strike on a Russian motorcyclist in the Kurakhove direction. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims the assault on Konstantinovka has begun. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UA source) video, captured from a thermal imaging perspective, shows what appears to be a ground vehicle or personnel moving across an open field, with an explosion occurring in the vicinity of the target. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video shows the 425th Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video showing captured Russian soldiers providing testimony confirms UA success. An Iskander-M missile strike has been reported in Sloviansk. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a photo message claiming RF forces are advancing on the Konstantinovka direction. Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) posts a video showing a BM-21 Grad MLRS firing and subsequent aerial footage of strikes on damaged buildings, claiming it is the 238th Artillery Brigade supporting the offensive. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts photo message and a map of the Druzhkivka/Konstantinovka directions. Підрозділ Shadow (UA source) video shows drone strike on RF positions, including thermal imaging confirmation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) photo message from "Mad'yar" claims Ukraine has completely destroyed the "Druzhba" oil pipeline. DeepState (UA Source) reports map has been updated. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts photo messages of the Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports a KAB-250 strike with UMPK on AFU infrastructure near Rayskoe. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows an aerial view of a damaged building, likely in a conflict zone, with an explosion targeting the structure. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video provides an aerial view of a damaged train station building and surrounding railway infrastructure in Pokrovsk. The building shows significant signs of destruction, indicating it has been subjected to heavy shelling or bombing. The damage implies potential disruption to transportation and logistics. Colonelcassad (RF source) posted two videos of combat operations in Donbas, featuring drone footage of military targets and engagements, including armored vehicles (BTR, BBM), a communications antenna, and a dugout. This confirms ongoing high-intensity combat with diverse aerial assets employed. Colonelcassad has released new video showing "Adsky Krik" drone operators from the 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment, 5th Army, "Vostok" Group of Forces, destroying enemy armored vehicles, manpower, and drones in the South-Donetsk direction. TASS reports that RF MoD claims Southern Grouping fighters destroyed a platoon of "Kholodnyi Yar" militants. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Latest RF reporting indicates renewed strikes on Sloviansk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна (UA source) video shows the aftermath of an RF Iskander-M missile strike on Sloviansk, with significant damage to civilian buildings, impacting public morale and requiring immediate humanitarian response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovskoe Direction): UA sources report a critical "lack of infantry." RF claims a "big breakthrough" and liberation of Iskra in DNR. RF forces have reportedly broken through into Zolotyi Kolodyaz, with ongoing fighting, and advanced up to 1.5km towards Sokil from Ocheretyne, threatening a key Ukrainian GLOC. UA sources report stabilization and successful destruction of enemy elements, and Ukrainian paratroopers clearing Pokrovsk of Russian DRGs. UA forces repelled enemy near Rubizhne, Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Vesele, Vilne, Shakhove, Nykanorivka, and Sukhetske. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Poltavka, Volodymyrivka, Fedorivka, Novoekonomichne, Rodynske, Sukhetske, Promin, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Udachne, Dachne, Novoukrayinka, Lysivka, Nykanorivka and towards Filiya in the Pokrovsk direction. Main Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reports successful UA advances for the second consecutive day in Dobropillya and Pokrovsk directions, despite challenges. RF sources are consistently reporting heavy fighting and "destruction" of UA equipment/personal near Pokrovsk. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts photos and video confirming successful UA counter-DRG operations near Pokrovsk. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video of the 425th Regiment "SKALA" showing captured Russian soldiers providing testimony on their unit movements and lack of support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports an attempted assault on Pokrovsk by RF forces utilizing motorcycles. TASS reports that an officer of the press center of the RF 'Vostok' grouping, Aleksei Yakovlev, stated their units have advanced into enemy defenses in Ivankiv, Poltavka, and Zeleny Gay. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted multiple photo messages summarizing the General Staff's report. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Pokrovsk direction as of 18 AUG 25. TASS reports that the National Guard of Ukraine is relocating some units from Kharkiv Oblast to the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. TASS reports that Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi recognized the situation as difficult along the entire contact line, especially in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) posts aerial video of military activity in Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk area. РБК-Україна reports Commander Syrskyi commenting on RF forces near Dobropillya, stating "instead of 'forward, victory' - 'encirclement, end'," suggesting effective UA defense or counter-offensive actions. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) posts thermal imaging video claiming to show RF rocket artillery striking enemy strongholds in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UA source) reports liberation of Zolotyi Kolodyaz and Petrivka in Donetsk Oblast, supported by video evidence of soldiers and captured prisoners, directly countering RF claims of gains. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Poltavka, Vilne, Nove Shakhove, Zapovidne, Novoekonomichne, Myrolubivka, Novoukrayinka, Lysivka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne and towards Volodymyrivka, Rodynske, Chervone Lymanu, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Molodetske in the Pokrovsk direction. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) provides a new General Staff update confirming that UA forces, including the 1st Azov Corps (ZSOU and NGU), have cleared the settlements of Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz in Donetsk Oblast. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA Source) reports on an RF military individual having shot a civilian in the Pokrovsk direction. MoD Russia (RF source) claims flamethrowers from the Tsentr Group wiped out a UA stronghold near Krasnoarmeysk. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports an RF military individual shot a civilian in Rodynske, Pokrovsk direction. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) posts video claiming to show "Rubicon" breaking Ukrainian defenses near Krasnoarmeysk. Филолог в засаде (RF source) posted a video requesting donations for a "night bird" (likely DJI Mavic 3T) for artillery reconnaissance on the Pokrovskoe direction. Сливочный каприз (RF source) provided a photo message of their claimed positions between Dobropillya and Kucherov Yar as of 18 Aug 25. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports intense fighting for Udachne and Pervoye Maya. TASS reports that RF forces gained high tempo advance on Donetsk front, and will soon liberate Krasnoarmeysk and Konstantinovka. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) appeals for donations for "motorized rifle units and special forces" that are "actively advancing." Multiple sources confirm a large map of Ukraine was displayed in the Oval Office during the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) and STERNENKO (UA source) post photo messages of the large map of Ukraine in the Oval Office. Rybar (RF source) posts a tactical map for the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd direction as of 18 AUG 25. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video message showing intense fighting and "holding key heights" on the Dobropillya direction. The video appears to be drone footage showing engagements between opposing forces, including vehicles being targeted and destroyed (BBM, "Baba-Yaga" drone, relay station, truck). This confirms ongoing high-intensity combat. Операция Z (RF source) video shows "Otvazhnye" burning a UA stronghold near Pokrovsk using "Tosochka" (TOS-1A). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Сливочный каприз (RF source) photo message with caption "18.08.25 Krasnoarmeysk - Poltavka" provides an RF claimed tactical map of the Pokrovsk direction, which can be cross-referenced with UA reports of the fighting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) A new RF claimed tactical map for the Pokrovsk direction as of 19 AUG 25, captioned "Krasnoarmeysk - Mayak," indicates continued RF focus on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UA reports capture of an RF prisoner from 150th Division by Azov units, and significant RF losses in Azov's areas. Mandatory evacuation of families with children in Druzhkivka suggests anticipated RF advances or increased threat. Closure of Ukrposhta branches in Konstantinovka from August 19 further indicates increasing threat to this logistics hub. Clashes reported near Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, Oleksandra-Kalynove, and Pleschiyivka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Pleschiyivka, Stepanivka, Yablunivka and Rusyn Yar in the Toretsk direction. STERNENKO (UA source) reports that Phoenix UAS tactical group is "cutting Russian logistics" in the Konstantinovka direction. Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) claims RF 4th OMCBR continues to attack towards Delievka – Aleksandro-Shulgino and attempts to break through and consolidate in Belaya Gora. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Toretsk, Scherbynivka and towards Oleksandro-Shultyne, Pleschiyivka, Rusyn Yar in thetsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Luhansk Oblast (Siversk Direction): RF forces report combat operations with drone-guided artillery and ATGM teams. RF MoD claims destruction of AFU stronghold in Krasny Liman direction. RF aims to advance 2 km to close a "fire bag" for AFU in Kremensky forests. Russian forces reportedly broke through Ukrainian defense lines in the Lyman district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Serebryanka, Siversk, Vyyimka, Fedorivka, Pereyizne and towards Siversk in the Siversk direction. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Kolodezi in Donetsk People's Republic (Luhansk direction). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 63rd Brigade utilizing three FPV drones to neutralize a Russian tank threatening Ukrainian positions east of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast. RF MoD confirms liberation of Kolodezi and Voronoye. Colonelcassad reports on mobile fire groups operating in Belgorod Oblast and Luhansk People's Republic. TASS reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including foreign mercenaries, suffered 4,500 personnel losses in the past week on the Luhansk People's Republic borders, with the Southern Group of Forces inflicting the most damage. TASS claims that Kyiv has struck Lisichansk, LPR, more than 10 times in the past week, resulting in civilian casualties. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Luhansk direction as of 18 AUG 25. Сливочный каприз (RF source) posts a summary of combat operations between August 14-17, 2025, which likely includes the Luhansk direction. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Fedorivka and Vyyimka in the Siversk direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) has provided a photo message of a tactical map for the Siversk direction. Mash na Donbasse reports over 1,000 residents of Kamyshnoye and Gerasimovka without power due to a severe fire in LPR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Сливочный каприз (RF source) photo messages with caption "19.08.25 Siversk - Vyyemka" provides RF claimed tactical map of the Siversk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Сливочный каприз (RF source) video demonstrates active combat operations in the Siversk direction, including drone strikes on enemy positions and personnel, confirming ongoing high-intensity engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): Sustained RF artillery and FPV drone attacks on Nikopol and surrounding communities. RF claims control of all settlements at the junction of DNR and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast after liberation of Iskra. Extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Nikopol confirmed. Ballistic missile strike on outskirts of Dnipro confirmed with damage to civilian property. Overnight drone attack on Pokrovska community, Synelnykivskyi district, caused fires at agricultural enterprises. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Voronoye in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetrovsk Regional State Administration) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopolshchyna. A ballistic missile threat on Synelnykove and a high-speed target from the east on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Explosions were heard in Pavlohrad. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports destruction of a UA T-72 tank by an FPV drone in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected near Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a drone (UAV) threat to Pavlohrad. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "powerful explosions" in Pavlohrad. TASS (RF source) claims UA forces in Iskra, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, killed an elderly female civilian. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropropetrovsk Regional State Administration) reports that RF struck Pavlohrad with a missile overnight, causing a fire. Воин DV (RF source) video footage from an aerial platform with thermal imaging, focused on a wooded area on the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and DNR, targeting what appears to be personnel or equipment. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces struck Pavlohrad Repair and Mechanical Plant and Technical Equipment Plant. MoD Russia (RF source) video of servicemen from the Vostok Group of Forces describing the liberation of Iskra in Donetsk People's Republic. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) posts a UA UAV attacked a gas station in Yenakiieve, DNR. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports that UA forces inflicted a successful strike on a gas station in Yenakiieve. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports a substation hit by a "Geran" drone in Mezhove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video of a burning power substation in Mezhove, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetrovsk Regional State Administration) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol, Marhanets, and Pokrovske communities throughout the day. Photos show damaged civilian buildings. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of strike UAVs in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading towards Pavlohrad. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 1 "moped" (Shahed) heading towards Dnipro. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UA Air Defense reports 7 enemy UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ASTRA (UA source) reports one person injured after Russian attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports the "SKALA" Regiment conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts, confirming UA tactical gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) video claims destruction of a French "Caesar" self-propelled howitzer and an ammunition vehicle in the Dnipropetrovsk border region by "Vostok" Group of Forces, signaling continued RF focus on Western-supplied artillery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video depicts a large building complex engulfed in flames and thick black smoke after overnight Shahed attacks in the Synelnykove district. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkivskyi District): UA Air Force alerts for high-speed targets and KAB launches. RF claims improved position near Krasny Perviy, controlling ~6 km of road to Dvorechnaya. A substantial increase (estimated 40%) in Russian EW emissions has been detected in the Kharkiv sector, primarily targeting Ukrainian reconnaissance UAVs and degrading ISR capabilities. Continued RF reconnaissance UAVs in northern and eastern Kharkiv Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Khatnye and Fyholivka in the South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 4 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes in the past day. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. РБК-Україна reports 11 casualties in Kharkiv from recent RF attack. Олег Синєгубов, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, reports 3 additional casualties, bringing total to 11. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates the 11 casualties. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration (UA source), provided multiple photo messages showing damaged civilian residential buildings. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "continuing to pound Kharkiv" with "powerful explosions." РБК-Україна reports an explosion heard in Kharkiv. Mayor Igor Terekhov confirms "Shahed" hits in Industrialnyi district. Oleg Syniehubov confirms two casualties (25-year-old male, 79-year-old female) from drone strike. Subsequent reports from Oleg Syniehubov indicate 10-year-old boy, 19-year-old girl, 46-year-old male, and 47-year-old female hospitalized. Mayor Igor Terekhov reports one fatality and five injured. Kharkiv now reports four fatalities (up from three), including a one-year-old child and a 55-year-old woman, and 17 injured (including 6 children). Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) reports 5 people are currently missing. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and РБК-УкраїНА (UA source) have released additional video footage showing the ongoing search and rescue operation. ASTRA (UA source) has released photos and a drone video showing the extensive destruction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports on the drone attack on a residential high-rise. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА reports a 16-year-old boy became the fourth victim. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports five fatalities. STERNENKO (UA source) corroborates five fatalities. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates five fatalities. Север.Реалії (UA source) reports at least four fatalities. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) reports enemy strikes on Kharkiv and 10 settlements. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports five fatalities and at least 30 injured. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) reports the number of injured has increased to 20. ASTRA (UA source) also reports 30 injured. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts video and photo messages of the aftermath. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) declares August 18 a day of mourning. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports the number of injured has increased to 20. ASTRA (UA source) reports the number of fatalities has increased to 6. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) confirms 6 fatalities. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts an informational message. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the number of fatalities has risen to 7. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates 7 fatalities. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) also confirms 7 fatalities. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts video of border guards liquidating 5 enemy targets. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and Рыбарь (RF source) both post video of a military convoy with RF and US flags. ASTRA (UA source) posts video of a Russian attack on Kharkiv from the city's mayor. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video of Kharkiv mayor showing morning Shahed strikes. РБК-УкраїНА (UA source) posts video of Kharkiv mayor showing the moment of a Russian strike. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts video of Kharkiv, claiming "Tests continue. Be good!". ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing the moment of an RF strike on a residential building. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video showing medics attempting to resuscitate a small child. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, reports an additional three people sought medical attention, bringing total to 23. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts multiple photo messages indicating effective UA drone reconnaissance by the 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade. Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) has provided a photo message warning of fire danger. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on northern Kharkiv Oblast. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 24 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes last week. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video footage of a series of impacts in Kharkiv. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports that "Khartia" drones successfully located and struck an RF camp in Kharkiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts three photo messages depicting a battle map of the Kharkiv direction. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) posts a photo message celebrating Ukrainian leadership. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video showing civilian structures being transported by trucks at night. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a video of a formal gathering of international dignitaries, including Zelenskyy and Trump. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows drone operators of the 3rd Assault Brigade dropping munitions on RF in Kharkiv Oblast. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast is under bomb strike and threat of strike UAVs. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports RF KAB strikes on Ruska Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows 3rd Assault Brigade drone operators striking RF positions in Kharkiv Oblast while peace talks are ongoing. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast under bomb strike and UAV threat. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. A high-speed target is moving through Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast, likely a cruise missile. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Another high-speed target reported in Kharkiv Oblast, same course. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UA sources report 4 missiles from Kharkiv Oblast now over Poltava Oblast, heading towards Kremenchuk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 16 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast sustained enemy strikes yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports RF forces struck two UA locations in Khatnye and Chuhunivka, Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Chernihiv Oblast: UA Air Force alerts for enemy reconnaissance UAVs, high-speed targets, and threat of strike UAVs. "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on a forward Ukrainian command post in Birino area confirmed. Ballistic missile impact in Honcharivske reported. RF claims destruction of a foreign mercenary legion's base. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Krasnyy Khutir of Chernihiv region. Colonelcassad reports Kinzhal strike near Desna and Geran/Gerbera strikes near Semenivka (Chernihiv Oblast). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV threat to Brovary and Boryspil districts in Kyiv Oblast and a UAV threat to Kyiv. Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy UAVs on northern Chernihiv Oblast and in the Pryluky area. НгП раZVедка (RF source) claims "Geran" drones are "drilling" Chernihiv Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports enemy UAVs attacked Kyiv Oblast overnight, damaging a hangar in Boryspil district. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Chernihiv Oblast. MoD Russia (RF source) video claiming Geran-2 UAVs hit AFU special forces units of GUR near Zhadovo, Chernihiv region. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UA source) reports UAVs in central Chernihiv Oblast near Pryluky. Операция Z (RF source) posts video claiming Geran strikes hit GUR special forces in Chernihiv. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy strike UAV on northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. UA Air Force reports a UAV threat in Chernihiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces struck a training center in Chernihiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for Chernihiv Oblast has been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Latest UA Air Force reports an enemy UAV on Chernihiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна (UA source) reports that RF drones attacked Chernihiv Oblast this morning, causing power outages in some settlements, confirming continued RF drone activity in the area and immediate civilian impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) corroborates that parts of Chernihiv Oblast are without electricity after the morning UAV attack, further confirming the immediate civilian impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kherson Oblast (Left Bank Dnieper): UA reports destruction of an RF ammunition depot and four vehicles on the left bank. RF claims Lancet strike destroyed US M-777 howitzer and Ukrainian Bogdana SPG on right bank. Ukrainian Navy radio intercepts confirm loss of Russian Su-30SM fighter jet southeast of Snake Island. UA forces repelled 4-6 Russian army assaults. UA source claims reconnaissance units entered "Novaya Kakhovka" on the Kherson direction and are shelling enemy defenses. Southern Ukraine Defense Forces report continued strikes on enemy deployment areas, fire positions, and rear areas in the southern operational zone. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports strikes on Khadzhibeevka and Usatove (Odesa region), specifically targeting "marine BECs" and a 330kv power substation. TASS (RF source) claims that the "Kyiv-appointed" administration of Kherson has long since left the city and is operating remotely from Mykolaiv. TASS reports that the AFU lost a Starlink satellite communication station and 17 UAV control points in the zone of responsibility of the 'Vostok' grouping in the past 24 hours. Два майора (RF source) posts thermal imaging footage claiming to show activity in Kherson at night. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) provides operational information for the Southern Defense Forces. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Kherson direction as of 18 AUG 25. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of explosions and vehicle activity in the Kherson direction. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows artillerymen of the 49th Army hitting fortifications on the right bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) photo message provides operational information for the Southern Defense Forces as of 08:00 19 AUG 25, indicating continued UA monitoring and defense in the southern operational zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) photo message with caption "⚡️⚡️Сили оборони Півдня України продовжують уражати місця дислокації ворога, його вогневі позиції та тили." confirms ongoing UA deep strikes and counter-battery fire in the Southern operational zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Odesa Oblast: STERNENKO reports groups of strike UAVs in the north and near Odesa Oblast. РБК-Україна reports an alert from Odesa Oblast Military Administration calling residents to shelters due to strike UAVs. STERNENKO reports Odesa is under a massive "Shahed" drone attack, with explosions heard. Николаевский Ванёк reports reduction in drone numbers near Odesa. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports continued drone threats in Velyka Balka-Nerubaiske and Radisne-Velykyi Dalnyk (Odesa Oblast). ASTRA reports a large fire in Odesa after a massive Shahed strike. Операция Z (RF source) posts multiple photo and video messages reporting "powerful strikes on enemy objects in Odesa, fires in the city." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports that RF drones struck a Nova Poshta terminal in Odesa. Дневник Десантника (RF source) claims that their strike UAVs hit "several objects" in Odesa overnight. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна (UA source) confirm an RF drone strike on a fuel and energy infrastructure object and a two-story building in the suburbs of Odesa. ASTRA reports a fire on a fuel and energy infrastructure object in Odesa Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) reports Odesa was attacked by Shaheds all night. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video of the aftermath of strikes on an alleged SOCAR oil depot in Odesa Oblast. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims Geran drones destroyed a "giant fuel terminal" of SOCAR. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) reports 24 Shahed UAVs destroyed by Southern Defense Forces. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a map/graphic titled "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine August 17 - August 18, 2025," which likely includes Odesa. Colonelcassad also posts video of an explosion with "kurs_odessa" watermark. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video claiming a massive Shahed attack on SOCAR oil depot in Odesa Oblast. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims "Azerbaijani fuel tanks extinguished." Colonelcassad (RF source) comments that overnight strikes in Odesa targeted Nova Poshta objects and SOCAR. Два майора (RF source) posts video of significant damage to industrial or storage tanks in Odesa. Colonelcassad (RF source) also posts video showing the aftermath of attacks on SOCAR in Odesa. Операция Z (RF source) provides photos of a large fire, likely in Odesa. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows a significant fire at the SOCAR oil depot. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts photos showing a large fire at the SOCAR oil depot in Odesa. Kotsnews (RF source) posts videos confirming significant damage and fires. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) also posts video of the aftermath of the SOCAR oil depot strike. Два майора (RF source) has posted a photo message regarding Romania's desire to expand joint Black Sea patrolling with Bulgaria and Turkey. Colonelcassad (RF source) provides a summary of strikes. WarGonzo (RF source) posted videos showing the aftermath of the SOCAR strike in Odesa. STERNENKO video shows aerial footage likely from a drone, observing an area with what appear to be defensive positions or fortifications. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha reacting to the RF strike on the SOCAR oil depot. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile arrival in Dobroslav. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target on Odesa Oblast, heading northwest. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RF claims destruction of AFU ammunition depot. 578 RF strikes on 14 settlements over past day. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast. A 64-year-old man was wounded in a hostile attack on Polohivskyi district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Tolstoy, Komyshuvakha, Zelene Pole, Maliyivka, Myrne, Zaporizhzhke, Olhivske in the Novopavlivka direction. Colonelcassad reports VKC and missile forces conducted strikes on targets in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація reports air raid alert over. An air raid alert has been declared in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and has since been lifted. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) has re-declared an air raid alert. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of aviation weapons use. UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia district. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports the air raid alert has been lifted. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) has re-declared an air raid alert. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports ballistic missile activity towards Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target towards Zaporizhzhia. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports an explosion in Zaporizhzhia. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Zaporizhzhia is under ballistic missile attack. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports a second ballistic missile. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports a third explosion. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports repeated explosions. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports RF is attempting to strike critical infrastructure. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) corroborates RF attempts to strike critical infrastructure. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) confirms RF strikes on Zaporizhzhia, with two impacts and an increase in injured persons to four. РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborates two strikes. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the ballistic missile threat has been lifted. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports four injured. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) also reports four injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports that 6 people, two in serious condition, have been hospitalized. ASTRA (UA source) also reports 6 injured. РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborates increasing casualties. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts photos from the State Emergency Service. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports 7 injured. ASTRA (UA source) reports 17 injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) confirms 17 injured. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) also reports 17 injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) posts photos showing damage. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Syrskyi stating Russia is concentrating troops and planning a large-scale offensive. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) posts video showing firefighters and emergency personnel clearing debris. STERNENKO (UA source) posts video of significant damage. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Zelenyy Hay, Tolstoy, Oleksandrohrad, Voskresenka, Maliyivka, Vilne Pole and Temyrivka in the Novopavlivka direction. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Novoandriyivka in the Orikhiv direction. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA) reports a man rescued from debris has died. РБК-Україна (UA) corroborates the death. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA) reports air raid alert lifted. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports 3 dead and 18 injured from the morning attack. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports 23 people, injured by the enemy attack, are receiving medical assistance. РБК-Україна (UA) corroborates 23 injured. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) corroborates 23 injured. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates 23 injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) posts video showing the aftermath of the missile strike. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a video appealing for donations for drones and Starlink. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) posts photos showing the 44th Separate Artillery Brigade "Bogdana" successfully destroying enemy equipment. ASTRA (UA source) reports on an RF M113 APC with RF and US flags operating in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Два майора (RF source) posted a video claimed to be a tank strike in the Lukyanovskoe area of Zaporizhzhia. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports an increase in the number of injured persons to 27. РБК-Україна (UA) reports the number of injured has risen to 24. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) states that the Commander-in-Chief's statement about enemy intent to break through the Zaporizhzhia front and advance deep into Ukrainian territory was not new to them. Два майора (RF source) posted a drone video from the Zaporizhzhia front. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the number of injured in Zaporizhzhia increased to 30. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports 30 injured. ASTRA (UA source) reports 30 injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports Zaporizhzhia Oblast is a leader in drone procurement. ASTRA (UA source) reports up to 30 injured. Photos confirm significant damage to residential buildings. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports an air raid alert declared. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of ballistic weapons. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports the number of injured has increased to 33. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) declares an air raid alert. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UA source) reports a threat of ballistic weapons use. Два майора (RF source) reports on current combat activity on the Zaporizhzhia front. The air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a video appealing for donations. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video showing RF forces striking a UA tank in a wooded area near Lukyanovskoe, Zaporizhzhia direction. The video appears to be FPV drone footage, showing the drone's telemetry and a Russian watermark, indicating RF drone activity. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 3 dead and 33 injured in Zaporizhzhia from yesterday's enemy attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a "Minute of Silence" video, signifying continued mourning for casualties in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) video shows two RF servicemen from the 7th Airborne Division appealing for donations for drones and Starlink, suggesting ongoing logistical needs in the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has released a video confirming significant damage to civilian infrastructure, including residential and private buildings, and updated casualty figures to 3 fatalities and 34 injured after a Russian missile strike around 0900Z. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kupyansk Axis: Previous reports indicated a decisive shift of RF main effort with the capture of Ivanivka. RF continues strikes on settlements. UA reports successful tank sorties and drone operations against RF personnel and equipment. Commander of "Achilles" Regiment Fedorenko (UA source) reports RF plans to occupy Kupyansk by August 24. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports the first mechanized attack by RF on the left bank of Kupyansk in a long time. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Kupyansk direction as of 18 AUG 25. STERNENKO (UA source) reports that 905 drones has been delivered to the Defense Forces in the last two days. Николаевский Ванёк reports a new "singing" RF prisoner was taken under Muravka, Donetsk Oblast, identified as Vladimir Sergeevich from the 35th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. TASS reports the head of Kharkiv VGA Ganchev claims Russian forces are encircling Kupyansk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Sumy Oblast: РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian forces actively destroying the enemy in Sumy Oblast, pushing back Russians near Oleksiivka and Yunakivka. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of a destroyed UA M577 command post vehicle in Sumy Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing an RF truck with ammunition epically destroyed by a Ukrainian drone on the way to Sumy Oblast. TASS reports that RF forces have improved their tactical position near Yunakovka, Sumy Oblast. Операция Z (RF source) thermal imagery video claims successful destruction of UA armored vehicles by Spetsnaz "Anvar" and VDV units supporting an offensive on Sumy. РБК-Україна reports a 57-year-old woman injured by a KAB strike on Novoslobidska community, Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new UAVs on northern Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports a missile strike on Sumy. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted photo messages confirming a missile strike on an educational institution. НгП раZVедка (RF source) posts a mocking caption suggesting RF strikes or activity in Shostka. RF reconnaissance UAVs are operating near Putyvl. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Sumy. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports a series of explosions. Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 new RF UAVs detected east of Bilopillya. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports continued RF attacks on Sumy. Colonelcassad shares video footage from the 68th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th Army, Western Military District. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs. UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs. TASS (RF source) claims that Ukrainian Armed Forces command in Sumy Oblast has committed all resources to outflank RF forces in Yunakivka. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video showing two individuals in a wooded area with abandoned cars and a quad bike, claiming it depicts RF forces marauding in border villages of Kursk Oblast. Kotsnews (RF source) posts video with caption "Syrsky: Kursk - best result among all major operations," which is an RF information operation. MoD Russia (RF source) video claiming a BM-21 Grad MLRS crew eliminated a manpower cluster. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts video of a Lancet loitering munition preparation and strike. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University. РБК-Україна (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University. Alex Parker Returns (RF) claims the Sumy State University was hit by a "Flamingo missile." Два майора (RF source) posts video showing an RF FPV drone strike. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy strike UAV on northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. RF activity on the Sumy direction, with an aerial view of an exploding vehicle. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) asserts that RF forces have been defeated in Sumy Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a video of drone-guided artillery or air strikes. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) amplifies Syrsky's (misquoted) statements. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts a photo message showing activity on the Eastern Direction. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports a severe injury to an RF General in Kursk Oblast from a HIMARS strike. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video from local residents showing a visual confirmation of RF "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on Sumy State University. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAV threat. TASS (RF source) reports RF military expert Yan Gagin claiming AFU unsuccessfully counterattack. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows Uragan MLRS crews eliminating AFU armored vehicles. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows T-80BVM tanks of the Sever Group of Forces eliminating AFU hardware. RF has again attacked civilian infrastructure in Sumy. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast moving south. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of enemy UAVs on the north, east, and south of Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. An explosion was heard in Sumy. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Sumy Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UA source) video indicates UA forces are expanding their buffer zone in the Sumy region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) video shows two individuals in a wooded area, likely RF personnel, but content is general and not highly specific to Sumy operations. (LOW CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO (UA source) posts a photo message with incendiary content, implying attacks on Russian border regions, which is a PSYOP. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat from the northeast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts a photo message showing a battlefield map for the Sumy direction, indicating active counterattacks by VSU and the use of SU-27 fighter jets for strikes on RF positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Poltava Oblast: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Poltava Oblast moving towards Myrhorod. An enemy UAV is heading south from northern Sumy Oblast towards Poltava Oblast. РБК-Україна reports Poltava and its community are without electricity. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of enemy UAVs on the north, east, and south of Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. Groups of strike UAVs reported moving towards Kremenchuk from east and north. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in Poltava Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. Explosions reported in Lubny. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports approximately 12 "mopeds" (Shahed drones) heading towards/through Kremenchuk, with two waves. Nikolaevskiy Vanek confirms 7 "mopeds" (Shahed drones) from the first and second waves are currently heading towards Kremenchuk. ASTRA reports a large number of explosions in Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast, following attacks on Lubny. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 ballistic missiles targeting Kremenchuk, aimed at energy infrastructure. Николаевский Ванёк reports that "mopeds" heading to Kremenchuk are currently "minus," indicating successful interception or re-routing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UA Air Force confirms cruise missiles heading for Kremenchuk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 5 missiles are approaching Kremenchuk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports "minus" on the missiles for Kremenchuk, indicating successful interception or re-routing. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that RF forces attacked Poltava Oblast overnight, and provides a photo of fire aftermath at the Kremenchuk oil refinery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA sources) report a massive overnight attack on Poltava Oblast by the enemy, as stated by the OVA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ASTRA (UA source) reports Russia massively attacked Poltava Oblast, causing power problems, citing local authorities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) WarGonzo (RF source) photo messages confirm RF attacks on energy objects in Kremenchuk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна (UA source) photo message shows dense black smoke from Kremenchuk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video confirms burning Azerbaijani oil tanks in Kremenchuk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) video claims dozens of "Geraniums" struck targets in Poltava Oblast, including gas transportation system facilities and the local oil refinery, confirming the attack's scope. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows the aftermath of a "terrorist attack" on Kremenchuk, with a large plume of dark smoke, confirming significant damage and ongoing civilian impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ASTRA (UA source) videos and photos confirm extensive smoke over Kremenchuk after a "massive Russian attack," substantiating the environmental and infrastructure damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Два майора (RF source) photo messages and text confirm the aftermath of overnight strikes on Kremenchuk, including a large smoke plume, confirming successful RF targeting from their perspective. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video and photo messages confirm significant smoke over Kremenchuk in the morning, further verifying the scale of the attack and its impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad (RF source) video confirms a large fire at Kremenchuk Oil Refinery with thick black smoke impacting residential buildings, suggesting significant and potentially ongoing damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kyiv Oblast: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports a car explosion in Podilskyi district, Kyiv. STERNENKO (UA source) posts photos of the car explosion. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) provides multiple photo messages of a fire incident. Операция Z (RF source) posts video claiming "Ukrainian partisans" blew up a military vehicle. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports on a scheme to launder over 160 million UAH. Multiple photos and videos from KMVA show a large fire at a multi-story building. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports enemy UAVs attacked Kyiv Oblast overnight, damaging a hangar in Boryspil district. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV threat to Brovary and Boryspil districts in Kyiv Oblast and a UAV threat to Kyiv. Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy UAVs on northern Chernihiv Oblast and in the Pryluky area. НгП раZVедка (RF source) claims "Geran" drones are "drilling" Chernihiv Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports enemy UAVs attacked Kyiv Oblast overnight, damaging a hangar in Boryspil district. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts photo messages featuring soldiers from the 21st separate mechanized brigade. Николаевский Ванёк reports on a preliminary meeting regarding a terrorist act in Mykolaiv. The Presidential Brigade of Ukraine (UA source) posted a video showing a successful drone strike on two Russian soldiers and their motorcycle. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts a video of a Ukrainian soldier sitting amongst destroyed buildings. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports an air raid alert in Kyiv due to the takeoff of a Russian MiG-31K. РБК-Україна (UA source) confirms the air raid alert. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) confirms the air raid alert. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) confirms the MiG-31K in the air. РБК-Україна (UA source) provides a map. STERNENKO (UA source) also confirms the MiG-31K takeoff. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat of MiG-31K has been lifted. An enemy strike UAV in Kyiv Oblast heading towards Brovary. KMVA reports an air raid alert in Kyiv due to the threat of ballistic weapons. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat of ballistic weapons has been lifted. The air raid alert in Kyiv has been lifted. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) and Оперативний ЗСУ (UA sources) posts a "Minute of Silence" photo message, indicating continued solemn commemoration in Kyiv for fallen defenders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Volgograd Oblast (RF): ASTRA reports a large fire in Volgograd after a UAV attack, with the roof of a hospital on the territory of an oil refinery on fire. TASS confirms that air defense forces are repelling a massive UAV attack on Volgograd Oblast and that the roof of a hospital building was on fire due to falling UAV debris, with no casualties reported. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russians complain about an attack of unknown drones in Volgograd, and the regional governor stated that there is a fire on the territory of the oil refinery. TASS reports that temporary restrictions at Volgograd airport have been lifted. Оперативний ЗСУ posts photos showing the aftermath of a UAV attack in Volgograd, specifically mentioning the oil refinery and hospital roof being on fire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Два майора (RF source) confirms drones attacked Volgograd Oblast, with a hospital and an oil refinery territory on fire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO (UA source) confirms drones attacked Volgograd Oil Refinery overnight, providing photos. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) photo message confirms "night heating" of Volgograd Oil Refinery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Север.Реалии (UA source) reports a large fire in Volgograd with a hospital and oil refinery territory on fire after a drone attack, confirming significant damage in RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ASTRA reports that the fire in Volgograd at the oil refinery has been extinguished. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Overall Frontline: RF continues employment of FPV drone swarms and Lancet loitering munitions, with a reported 20% increase in Lancet strikes. UA inflicted significant personnel losses (1010 RF personnel in the last 24h, total 276,300 since year start). UA deep strikes into RF territory include the Syzran Oil Refinery (Samara Oblast), Olya seaport (Astrakhan Oblast), the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast, and a drone attack on Azot chemical plant in Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol Krai. 61 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed by UA. Prisoner exchange of 84 servicemen conducted. TASS reports Putin congratulated the Russian Geographical Society on its 180th anniversary. Rybar (RF source) posts a photo message which is likely an analytical overview. TASS reports on cyber activity against Russian organizations. TASS also reports Mikhail Ulyanov stating that the West should provide Russia with the same reliable security guarantees as Ukraine. Операция Z reports that Ukraine fears a verbal altercation between Zelenskyy and Trump. Igor Artamonov (RF source) reports a yellow alert "air danger regime" declared for all of Lipetsk Oblast. TASS quotes a Serbian sniper, Dejan Beric, stating that sniper scouts no longer conduct foot reconnaissance behind enemy lines. ТАСС (RF source) reports a "Carpet" plan has been introduced in Penza Oblast. The "Carpet" plan in Penza Oblast has been canceled. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video message from Sumy Oblast, showing military vehicle movement. TASS reports Polyansky's statement that the settlement process in Ukraine must consider the opinion of 7 million Ukrainians who sought refuge in Russia. Trump claims Zelenskyy can end the conflict by renouncing Crimea and NATO membership. Zelenskiy / Official reports arrival in Washington for meeting with President Trump and European leaders. Rybar (RF source) has posted an analytical overview. Два майора (RF source) also posted a summary of events. TASS reports that the Tambov airport has lifted restrictions. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) and Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) report estimated general combat losses of enemy personnel (+940 in the last 24h) and equipment. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts images of new Chinese anti-ship hypersonic missiles. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy is scheduled for 20:15 Kyiv time. RF MoD claims 23 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF and annexed Crimea overnight. TASS (RF source) and ASTRA (UA source, citing Kremlin media) report that the FSB prevented a second terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge. Kotsnews (RF source) also reports on the thwarted Crimean Bridge attacks. TASS (RF source) reports 20 fatalities at an incident at the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast. Igor Artamonov (RF source) reports a red level UAV attack threat declared for Lipetsk. TASS (RF source) reports the Russian government plans to increase demand for housing. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video footage of sniper pairs of the 299th Yaroslavl Regiment. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) and Два майора (RF source) are amplifying the FSB claims. TASS reports that Zelenskyy is ready to make concessions. WarGonzo and Kotsnews confirm the FSB reports. Басурин о главном (RF source) also amplifies the FSB claim. РБК-Україна reports an explosion of a car painted to look like a military vehicle in Kyiv. Два майора (RF source) posts a video of an APC moving across open terrain. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) posts a photo message advertising a bot. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a series of tactical maps. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts a photo message promoting his channel. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a technical diagram/illustration. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» (UA source) posts a photo message of their brigade emblem. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a video appeal for donations. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Siversk direction. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Southern (Robotyne) direction. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Kherson direction. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Kharkiv direction. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video claiming FSB prevented a second terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge. Рыбарь (RF source) comments on the Crimean Bridge incident. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a photo message of the 210th Assault Regiment pilots at work. Colonelcassad (RF source) comments on the Crimean Bridge incident. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a general warning. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 88 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) also reports 88/140 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed, and 0/4 Iskander-M missiles. РБК-Україна reports RF launched 4 ballistic missiles and 140 drones overnight. ТАСС (RF source) reports the Investigative Committee has qualified Ukraine's attempt to attack the Smolensk NPP as a terrorist act. Север.Реалии (UA source) reports the General Prosecutor's Office recognized a German foundation aiding fascism victims as "undesirable." 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України (UA source) provides a video report on enemy losses. Два майора (RF source) comments on Trump's actions. Рыбарь (RF source) posts on new Chinese military hardware. ASTRA (UA source) reports RF attacked Ukraine with 4 Iskander-M missiles and 140 drones overnight. Операция Z (RF source) amplifies The Guardian's report. Fighterbomber (RF source) mentions a new episode of "333". БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts multiple photo messages with a strong nationalist and anti-Russian message. РБК-Україна reports Syrskyi stating Russia's bravado about fighting for years is unfounded. Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) posts a short overview. STERNENKO (UA source) posts a video of drones hitting enemy logistics and reconnaissance. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a general warning. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) has posted multiple photo messages about the detention of members of a criminal organization in Kyiv and Odesa. Colonelcassad (RF source) confirms 20 fatalities and 134 injured at the Ryazan gunpowder plant explosion. Kotsnews (RF source) posts "Selectivity of Kyiv and volunteers from everywhere." Басурин о главном (RF source) posts on Trump's statements. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) posts on Trump advising Zelenskyy. Igor Artamonov (RF source) reports the cancellation of the "red level" UAV attack threat in Lipetsk. MoD Russia claims an Iskander-M missile system destroyed a cluster of AFU personnel and hardware at a UAV pre-launch site. Два майора (RF source) posts video of civilian volunteers producing 3D-printed FPV anti-air drones. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims Kyiv showed its first "Flamingo" ballistic missile with a range of 3000km. TASS reports on Putin's meeting with the acting governor of Rostov Oblast. TASS (RF source) reports that a Ukrainian MP called for Zelenskyy's arrest. TASS (RF source) reports that 23 bodies have been recovered from the Ryazan gunpowder plant explosion site. TASS (RF source) reports on a phone call between Putin and Indian Prime Minister Modi. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukraine could continue importing gas from Azerbaijan. Operatyvnyi ZSU (UA source) reports that US Vice President Vance will be present at the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborates Vance's presence. Fighterbomber (RF source) posts a video celebrating aviation day. TASS (RF source) reports on a phone call between Putin and Tajik President Rahmon. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted a video confirming the launch of "Flamingo" cruise missile production. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) has posted a photo message regarding a convicted military individual committing murder. Два майора (RF source) has posted a photo message with the caption "🇺🇸45 минут на Зелю🇺🇦." ТАСС (RF source) has provided a video of Tu-95MS strategic bombers performing a planned flight over the Barents Sea. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/TIEDOTТЕЕТ (RF/Disinformation source) has posted a photo message with a quote in Finnish from "Baltic Voice." Операция Z (RF source) has posted a photo message claiming Trump is listening to Putin. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted a photo message regarding details of the "Elastic" plant incident. Операция Z (RF source) has posted a photo message claiming the Ukrainian Foreign Minister responded rudely to Hungary's claims. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "High-precision strikes of the RF Armed Forces on key enemy objects." WarGonzo (RF source) posted a video showing an award ceremony for soldiers of the 44th Army Corps. WarGonzo (RF source) has also posted a photo message claiming North Korean tank crews are preparing for combat in Ukraine. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) reports the evacuation of residents from Olkhivski Dachi near Stanitsia Luhanska. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs launched on Sumy Oblast, northern Kharkiv Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. STERNENKO (UA source) posts video of YOKAI GROUP (UA) shooting down a new Russian V2U UAV. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) reports operational information as of 16:00, 18 AUG 25. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) posts a photo message claiming successful UAV strike on Nikolske oil pumping station in Tambov Oblast, RF. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborate the UA strike on Nikolske oil pumping station. TASS reports Putin and Zhaparov discussed the Alaska summit. TASS reports Putin expressed condolences to Modi for floods. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) posts a video of a mobilized RF soldier calling on United Russia members to go to the front. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts photo message claiming Trump will only meet Zelenskyy. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) amplifies CNN's report. Рыбарь (RF source) posts a photo message, "Nothing personal." Операция Z (RF source) reports Deputy Commander of "Sever" Grouping General Abachev was severely wounded in Kursk Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts video showing drone pilots acting as infantry in combat. Zelenskiy / Official reports video message with General Kellogg. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts video on Zelenskyy sharing details. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts recruitment appeal for assault and reconnaissance units. TASS posts photo message summarizing news. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts a photo message on Trump's statement. TASS reports Lula da Silva acknowledged importance of Putin's info on Alaska summit. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts on a lawsuit. Kotsnews (RF source) provided a video of Zelenskyy arriving in Washington in a t-shirt. Операция Z (RF source) amplified the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sibiga's statement. ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump's intention to end the conflict. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Zelenskyy's statement on European peace. ТАСС (RF source) posted an image described as having a formal setting but content that I am restricted from analyzing. Colonelcassad (RF source) quotes Trump's lengthy social media post. Басурин о главном (RF source) claims heat helps RF fighters evade thermal imagers. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) criticizes Zelenskyy's attire. ТАСС (RF source) again reports Zelenskyy meeting Kellogg without a suit. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) references a 2022 event. MoD Russia (RF source) confirms a Tu-95MS strategic bomber flight. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reported on an RF Z-blogger "Thirteenth" being allegedly captured. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posted the "first footage of the Flamingo cruise missile launch." Два майора (RF source) reports on Ukrainian media "fakes." Операция Z (RF source) repeats the claim that Trump is confident in resolving the war. TASS reports that Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto responded to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Sybiha. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims Zelenskyy stated it's impossible to surrender territories. Colonelcassad (RF source) also amplifies Zelenskyy's statement. TASS reports that the US Permanent Representative to NATO said security guarantees for Ukraine do not necessarily mean the deployment of US troops. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) reports on the electronic summons registry becoming operational. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts photo messages about a "national messenger MAX". WarGonzo posts a video of Governor Solodov of Kamchatka. Colonelcassad posts a photo message with the caption ""Ляля" все. Жалеть не будем." Рыбарь posts an infographic titled "Вечные враги". Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows battlefield drone footage with multiple explosions. Воин DV (RF source) video shows a drone strike on what appears to be a tank. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video shows a captured RF soldier describing his deployment. TASS (RF source) reports European ambassadors in China may boycott a military parade. Rybar (RF source) has posted scanned documents. Rybar (RF source) posts a graphic titled "Delivery Service". ASTRA (UA source) posts photo and video messages showing the launch and alleged combat use of Ukraine's "Flamingo" missile. Басурин о главном (RF source) posts a photo with the caption "Grab your stuff and run!". Kotsnews (RF source) video shows a drone's first-person view. Два майора (RF source) posts photo message claiming US Army is moving to industrial-scale 3D printing. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts an article about Zelenskyy rejecting proposal. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) appeals for donations. DeepState (UA source) announces that the Ministry of Defense launched a unified platform for armament manufacturers. Zelenskiy / Official (UA source) posts a video message emphasizing "reliable and lasting peace." Oleg Syniehubov (UA source) posts the same video message. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports European Commission Head, NATO Secretary General, and UK Prime Minister arrived at the White House. TASS reports the White House asked Zelenskyy to wear a suit. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts videos of European leaders arriving. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Zelenskyy met with European leaders. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (UA source) posts Zelenskyy's video message. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Axios claims Putin allegedly abandoned the demand to control all of Donetsk Oblast. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a photo message claiming one hour left until the meeting. Два майора (RF source) reports Slovakia has stopped receiving Russian oil. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the Ukrainian delegation for the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts a video message discussing the use of a captured AK rifle. Kotsnews (RF source) posts video showing European leaders arriving. ТАСС (RF source) reports Russia calls on London to abandon "risky geopolitical gambits." Операция Z (RF source) video shows the arrival of European leaders. ТАСС (RF source) states that any scenario involving NATO military contingents in Ukraine is unacceptable. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts a photo message confirming the Ukrainian delegation's arrival. Два майора (RF source) posts video of aerial support for assault operations. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts a photo message confirming the Ukrainian delegation's arrival. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the President of France has arrived. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts a video of Zelenskyy's statement. STERNENKO (UA source) photo message confirms the Ukrainian delegation's arrival. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts photos of additional European leaders. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) advertises their presence on "MAX". Два майора (RF source) posts photos from Washington. Операция Z (RF source) reports on their source "Revenge of Good Will." Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a derogatory statement about Zelenskyy. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video of RF drone operators from Buryatia operating Mavic 3 Pro drones. ASTRA (UA source) highlights a discrepancy in RF claims about a captured "M113" APC. TASS (RF source) reports that mobilized Ukrainian military personnel are intentionally harming themselves. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts a video claiming "Zelenskyy can destroy agreements." Zelenskyy has arrived at the White House. Ukraine's delegation has arrived at the White House. Colonelcassad claims the Ukrainian delegation brought a map. Trump expressed confidence in tripartite talks. Trump stated the war will end. Trump claimed peace can be agreed during combat operations. Trump said Europe would be the "first line of defense." ASTRA reports Trump stated "Today will either be a deal or no deal. If not, support for Ukraine stops." Zelenskyy stated Ukraine is ready for elections. WarGonzo (RF source) posts a video with derogatory commentary. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows effective drone hunting operations. Олег Синєгубов (UA source) posts a photo message celebrating Ukrainian leadership. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports that Marjorie Taylor Green's husband apologized. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump stated a ceasefire is not being discussed. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video of Trump and Zelenskyy meeting. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video shows Trump stating he, Zelenskyy, and Putin all want the war to end. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump stating Ukraine will not be in NATO but will have security guarantees. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) mocks Zelenskyy's shoes. Kotsnews (RF source) uses derogatory caption. ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump stated ceasefire is not required. Два майора (RF source) reports Trump's statements. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) confirms Trump's statement on NATO. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump open to freezing conflict. ТАСС (RF source) reports Zelenskyy on arms procurement. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump on peace during combat. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reiterates Trump on no ceasefire. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump on selling, not giving, weapons. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump's exaggerated claim of $350bn aid. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump on selling weapons. Colonelcassad (RF source) mocks Zelenskyy's election statement. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump on conditional support. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump on US troops. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump on US troops. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) mocks Zelenskyy's mood. Военкор Котенок (RF source) continues Trump quotes. ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump on NATO. Два майора (RF source) reports Trump on NATO. Операция Z (RF source) also reports Trump on NATO. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump on NATO paying for US weapons. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump on NATO defending Ukraine. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Zelenskyy on strong army. ASTRA (UA source) reports on RF murder suspect gone to war zone. Два майора (RF source) photo message showing European leaders waiting. ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump will call Putin. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump on NATO helping Ukraine. ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump on Europe security guarantees. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump on liking both Ukrainians and Russians. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump on calling Putin. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reiterates Trump on peace. Новости Москвы (RF source) reports Trump on Ukraine not in NATO. Colonelcassad (RF source) video shows journalist questioning Zelenskyy's attire. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump's ambiguity. РБК-Україна (UA source) video of Trump speaking. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video of Trump speaking. ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump on calling Putin. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump on liking Ukrainians and Russians. Два майора (RF source) reports Trump and Zelenskyy gone to closed talks. ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump on liking Ukrainians and Russians. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump on Europe security. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump on Putin's call and tripartite talks. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) confirms journalists out. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) confirms closed meeting. ТАСС (RF source) photo message summarizes Trump statements. РБК-Україна (UA source) video of press leaving. Colonelcassad (RF source) photo message summarizes Trump statements. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) mocks European leaders waiting. Два майора (RF source) video shows Zaporizhzhia front activity. Военкор Котенок (RF source) confirms open meeting ended. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) summarizes Trump statements. Басурин о главном (RF source) photo message summarizes Trump statements. Операция Z (RF source) reports Europe still unaware. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) photo message mocking Zelenskyy's expression. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) video on "classic" strikes. Colonelcassad (RF source) video of full Oval Office meeting. ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump praised Zelenskyy's suit. DeepState (UA source) reports public part of talks ended. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) video of Trump stating Ukraine will not be in NATO. Два майора (RF source) mocking Zelenskyy's reception. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UA source) photo message on RF propaganda. TASS (RF source) reports Richard Black stated he hopes Moscow and Washington can become partners. TASS reports Dmitry Polyansky states Western countries are increasingly reluctant. TASS reports a massive Starlink outage. A joint statement after the closed Trump-Zelenskyy talks has been cancelled. РБК-Україна (UA source) and Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) confirm Trump and Zelenskyy completed their one-on-one meeting and proceeded to a larger meeting. STERNENKO (UA source) confirms the one-hour duration. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts photo message of the start of the joint meeting. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts photo message confirming the start of the joint meeting. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) and Два майора (RF source) post photo messages with derogatory captions. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump stating they are working to stop the killings. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump expressing confidence in a good call with Putin. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump stating he discussed many topics with Zelenskyy. ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump's belief in peace based on the Alaska summit. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump stating Putin agreed to security guarantees for Ukraine. РБК-Україна (UA source) and Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) report Trump's statement about Putin agreeing to security guarantees and the need to discuss territory exchange based on current front lines. ТАСС (RF source) confirms Trump's statement on territory exchange. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows Trump discussing a trilateral meeting to end the war. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump optimistic about an agreement. ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump doesn't believe in the threat of further RF aggression. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump's statement about a trilateral meeting. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump's optimism for an agreement. ТАСС (RF source) reports Zelenskyy discussed security guarantees. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Zelenskyy stating they will discuss territorial issues. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Zelenskyy confirming discussion of sensitive territorial questions. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump's confidence in reaching an agreement. ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump's confidence in a trilateral meeting. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump stating a thousand prisoners of war will be released immediately. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Zelenskyy announced discussions on security guarantees. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows Trump discussing Putin's agreement on security guarantees. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts video of Trump commenting on Merz's tan. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump's confidence in reaching all agreements today. Kotsnews (RF source) notes no "breakthrough" yet. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Merz cannot imagine a next meeting without a ceasefire. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump believes RF will no longer attack Ukraine. Рыбарь (RF source) posts summary of August 18. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine has released operational information as of 22:00, 18 AUG 25. Premier of Italy Giorgia Meloni states security talks will start with a proposal similar to NATO Article 5. Keir Starmer (UK PM) calls for reliable security guarantees. Trump states that within a week or two, it will be clear if peace can be achieved. Trump expresses confidence in releasing over a thousand POWs soon. RF MoD has published its #DailyFigure graphic. Macron proposes a four-way meeting. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video of Trump stating Putin wants a deal for him. Два майора (RF source) is conducting a fundraiser for "Frontline armor". КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UA source) posts photo message "Damn clouds". Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports 8 new "mopeds" (Shahed drones) near Dobropillya. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) photo message from "Mad'yar" claims Ukraine has completely destroyed the "Druzhba" oil pipeline. ТАСС (RF source) reports Russian stock market slowed decline. Підрозділ Shadow (UA source) video shows successful drone strike on RF positions. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows 3rd Assault Brigade drone operators striking RF positions. РБК-Україна (UA source) photo message reports Trump and Zelenskyy discussed tripartite meeting first. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump wants to call Putin immediately. Два майора (RF source) video reports no final press conference. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reiterates Trump's desire to call Putin. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAV groups in Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) photo message with a political/propaganda theme. Операция Z (RF source) reports Trump wants to call Putin immediately. РБК-Україна (UA source) photo message claims Defense Forces stopped work of "Druzhba" oil pipeline. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump wants to call Putin while Zelenskyy and European leaders are in White House. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UA source) reports "Ghosts" likely disabled "Around Noise". ASTRA (UA source) photo message of Trump and Zelenskyy. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump and Zelenskyy discussed tripartite meeting first. STERNENKO (UA source) post: "Trump: I'll throw money at the Russos". Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Zaporizhzhia. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts photos from the open part of Trump's multilateral meeting. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump wants to call Putin immediately. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts map of Druzhkivka/Konstantinovka directions. Рыбарь (RF source) posts chronological summary. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) states Putin is the last person who wants the war to end. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports overall drone situation. Операция Z (RF source) posts video of Finnish President stating they found a solution. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast under bomb strike. Kotsnews (RF source) posts on aiding family. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video showing Trump and Zelenskyy meeting. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Zelenskyy will give Fox News interview. РБК-Україна (UA source) photo of Trump and Zelenskyy. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video of Zelenskyy Fox News interview. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) photo message claiming "no too difficult questions". Takeoff of 2x Tu-95MS strategic bombers, indicating potential for new missile launches. RF sources confirm Trump's phone call with Putin and the initiation of preparation for a tripartite meeting. TASS reports Trump, European leaders, and Zelenskyy will hold another virtual meeting on Ukraine after the White House talks, as stated by NATO Secretary General Rutte. Zelenskyy confirmed the FT information regarding an arms deal with the US, and stated that Ukraine proposed to the US to purchase weapons worth $90 billion, including aircraft and air defense systems. Zelenskyy stated he believes they should meet with Putin unconditionally, but the question of territories will be left between him and Putin. Zelenskyy asserts security guarantees for Ukraine are planned to be formulated within 7-10 days. Macron stated EU leaders discussed with Trump strengthening sanctions against Russia if Moscow refuses to end the Ukrainian conflict, and that the West hopes for a trilateral meeting between Russia, USA, and Ukraine soon. Zelenskyy commented on the possibility of a foreign contingent in Ukraine. RF source (Операция Z, referencing Russkaya Vesna) reports Zelenskyy will not insist on a ceasefire as a condition for further negotiations with Russia. Finnish President Stubb states Putin's commitments cause uncertainty and explained why talks with Trump lasted so long. NATO Secretary General Rutte stated there is an irreversible path for Ukraine into NATO, but membership is not currently being discussed. Rutte also stated that arms supplies from the US to Ukraine will continue through NATO countries. Rutte stated the question of Ukrainian territorial concessions was not discussed at the White House meeting. Dmitriev (RF source) called today's discussion on the settlement in Ukraine an important day in diplomacy. TASS reports Putin has spoken with nine foreign leaders, including Trump, in the three days since the Alaska summit, indicating active diplomatic engagement. Rubio states that non-European countries will also participate in formulating and ensuring security guarantees for Ukraine. TASS reports Zelenskyy thanked Trump 11 times in 4.5 minutes according to the Washington Post. Macron states the location for a bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy will be determined in the coming hours. TASS reports that European advisors will work with the US on security guarantees for Ukraine, citing DPA. TASS reports Apty Alaudinov (RF source) stated that Russia's superiority in UAVs allows them to destroy all Ukrainian Armed Forces resources. Operatsiya Z posts historical footage from the Battle of Shumshu, and a memorial ceremony, likely to draw parallels to current conflict. TASS reports Macron's statement considering US willingness to participate in Ukraine's security as progress. ASTRA (UA source) reports that Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, stated: "Every Ukrainian child abducted by Russia must be returned to their families." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS (RF source) reports that the Ukrainian crisis has become an expensive lesson for Europe, which has every reason to play a more active role in achieving peace, citing the Global Times. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS (RF source) reports that two civilians were killed in "Crocus" while attempting to prevent attackers from shooting people, according to case materials. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports an additional 890 RF personnel liquidated in the last 24 hours, confirming continued high attrition on the RF side. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS (RF source) reports 15 fatalities, including a child, and over 140 injured from UA strikes on RF regions over the past week. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Propaganda) TASS (RF source) reports 23 UA UAVs were shot down over RF and annexed Crimea overnight, indicating persistent UA deep strike capabilities and RF air defense activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS (RF source) claims UA forces struck major frontline Russian cities prior to the RF-US summit, framing UA actions as provocative and potentially aimed at disrupting diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Propaganda) Два майора (RF source) posts a summary of the morning's events, indicating continued information dissemination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad (RF source) posts photos claiming that protective gear donated by supporters saved the lives of two RF assault unit soldiers from Buryatia in the "Vostok" Group of Forces, aimed at boosting morale and reinforcing the value of public support for military efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Propaganda/Morale) РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborates the General Staff's report of 890 RF personnel liquidated in the past 24 hours. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF MoD reports 23 UAVs shot down overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) photo message confirms 890 RF personnel losses in last 24 hours. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Рыбарь (RF source) video provides tactical analysis of "pocket" near Alekseevka and fighting for Udachnoe, indicating active combat and RF analytical focus on these areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) posts multiple photo messages of operational information as of 08:00 19 AUG 25, including a map and combat losses for RF, confirming active reporting and continued attrition. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Воин DV (RF source) video shows 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade operators striking a pickup truck, personnel, and temporary positions in the Vremevsky direction within the 36th Army's AOR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports a robotic platform of the AFU was destroyed near Konstantinovka, DNR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Fighterbomber (RF source) photo message contains a political statement regarding the US-Ukraine-Europe meeting, reflecting RF narrative about the summit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad (RF source) photo message on Trump discussing negotiations with Putin against a map showing "new Russian regions and Crimea" is a clear RF information operation aiming to legitimize annexed territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Fighterbomber (RF source) photo message reinforces the RF narrative about the diplomatic meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS (RF source) reports "Russian Post" was fined for violations related to funds for branch repairs, indicating internal Russian governance issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Новости Москвы (RF source) reports the average old-age pension in Russia, a domestic social issue. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts a highly propagandistic and inflammatory text on the inevitability of the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad (RF source) video features an RF serviceman discussing his service and his son's service, and the preparation of FPV drones, aiming to boost morale and highlight family commitment to the military. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) reports 236 enemy targets shot down/suppressed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports 236/280 enemy targets shot down/suppressed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Военкор Котенок (RF source) reports that 23 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down overnight over Russian territory, stating all were of aircraft type. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports continued activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeastern and southeastern directions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) НгП раZVедка (RF source) video provides a summary of strikes on enemy targets, indicating continued RF kinetic operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Melitopol (RF-occupied): TASS video shows former Ukrainian soldiers in Melitopol receiving blessings and laying flowers at a war memorial, indicating an RF information operation aimed at showcasing defection or collaboration and legitimizing RF presence in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Propaganda)
  • Internal RF Social Issues: ASTRA photo and video messages report a family of farmers in Moscow Oblast holding an employee in chains and forcing him to sign a contract with the RF Ministry of Defense to receive payments. This indicates severe internal social issues, potential human rights abuses, and desperate measures to meet military recruitment quotas, impacting RF domestic stability and potentially military morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ASTRA (UA source) reports a 75-year-old pensioner in Sverdlovsk Oblast was sentenced to 1 year and 2 months suspended for "rehabilitating Nazism" for calling Stalin a "dictator and murderer" in social media comments, indicating tightening internal control and suppression of dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Север.Реалии (UA source) reports a postal worker in Kaliningrad Oblast was sentenced to prison for an online comment suggesting "blowing up factories." This indicates severe domestic suppression of dissent and an extremely tight control environment within Russia, directly impacting civil liberties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS (RF source) reports on a reduced work Thursday for young fathers, which could lead to workplace discrimination. This is an internal social policy discussion, indicating domestic governance focus outside of direct military operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Gas Infrastructure: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) photo message mentions "strikes on enemy gas infrastructure objects," indicating a new RF targeting priority or an information operation to claim strikes on gas facilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAV Activity Update: Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports 8 new "mopeds" (Shahed drones) near Dobropillya, indicating continued localized RF drone activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Naval/Black Sea Security: Kotsnews (RF source) posts on "Germany's rearmament and negotiations in the White House." While the content is not specific, the mention of Germany rearming implies a broad, strategic context that affects Black Sea security dynamics by influencing naval capabilities of NATO members. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Domestic Infrastructure: Новости Москвы (RF source) reports that taxis at airports can now only be ordered via official stands or aggregator apps. This is a domestic administrative measure, unrelated to the conflict, but indicating an attempt at internal control and order. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Новости Москвы (RF source) reports traffic restrictions in Red Square due to the "Spasskaya Bashnya" festival. This is a domestic event, unrelated to military operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Новости Москвы (RF source) reports on a proposal to offer free parking at schools across Russia on September 1st, a domestic social initiative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA Financial Irregularities: Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports that the leadership of a state-owned seaport and a businessman have been notified of suspicion for causing over 8 million UAH in damages to the state. This points to ongoing efforts by UA authorities to combat corruption and maintain rule of law, which can indirectly impact resource allocation for military efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Strikes on UA Military Targets: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF Aerospace Forces destroyed a UA deployment point, UAV repair base, and weapons depot near Druzhkivka. This indicates continued RF targeting of UA military infrastructure and logistics, directly affecting UA operational capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Avdiivka Sector: Два майора (RF source) provides a video from Avdiivka, featuring a woman in military-style clothing delivering humanitarian aid within a damaged building. While not directly combat-related, it highlights the humanitarian impact in this contested area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

  • No new significant weather or environmental factors beyond previously noted challenging terrain (mud-covered vehicles), localized forest fires, and strong winds affecting drone operations. The large industrial fires in Syzran and the explosion at the Ryazan gunpowder workshop, and the attack on the Azot chemical plant will generate significant smoke and potential environmental contamination, impacting local air quality and visibility. RF KAB strike on Novoslobidska community, Sumy Oblast, around 22:00, injured a 57-year-old woman, indicating continued localized environmental impact from RF air strikes. The missile strike on Sumy and damage to an educational institution contributes to localized environmental impact. The RF strikes on Odesa targeting a Nova Poshta terminal (logistics/civilian) and a 330kv power substation in Usatove (critical infrastructure) will result in significant localized damage, fire, and potential power outages. The destruction visible in photos from Kharkiv Regional State Administration confirms significant environmental damage in residential areas. Igor Artamonov (RF source) reports a "red level" UAV attack threat declared for the city of Lipetsk and several municipal districts, indicating direct environmental impact from active air defense operations and potential debris fall. This red level threat has since been canceled. TASS (RF source) reports temporary restrictions on flights at Tambov and Penza airports. The "Carpet" plan in Penza Oblast was activated and subsequently cancelled. Renewed Shahed strikes on Kharkiv have caused a fire in a residential building with risk of collapse, increasing humanitarian and environmental impact. The confirmed fatalities (seven) and 23 injured in Kharkiv due to RF drone strikes represents a severe humanitarian impact and will exacerbate environmental concerns due to widespread debris and damaged infrastructure. The missile strike on an educational institution in Sumy further contributes to public anger. Igor Artamonov reports the cancellation of the "yellow level" air danger alert for Lipetsk Oblast. The missile strike on Pavlohrad will cause localized damage and potential environmental contamination. The confirmed 24 fatalities at the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast indicate a severe environmental impact from the UA deep strike, including potential chemical contamination and significant debris. The RF drone strike on a fuel and energy infrastructure object in Odesa suburbs will cause significant localized environmental damage due to fire and potential spills. The explosion of a car in Kyiv, whether accidental or intentional, will contribute to localized environmental impact. The car explosion in Kyiv will cause localized environmental impact. Ballistic missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia will cause localized damage and potential environmental contamination. The impacts in Zaporizhzhia, with two confirmed strikes, indicate localized environmental damage. The severe damage to civilian residential buildings in Kharkiv, including the confirmed fatalities and injured, underscores a catastrophic humanitarian and environmental impact. The confirmed 24 fatalities at the Ryazan gunpowder plant explosion underscore the significant environmental damage from the UA deep strike. The significant fire at the SOCAR oil depot in Odesa will cause localized air pollution and potential water contamination. The reported fire in Olkhivski Dachi near Stanitsia Luhanska from burning fields indicates immediate environmental impact and civilian displacement. The reported heat helping RF forces evade UA thermal imagers on the Zaporizhzhia front indicates a localized environmental factor exploited by the enemy. The severe fire in Kamyshnoye and Gerasimovka (LPR) causing power outages indicates continued environmental impact and disruption of civilian services due to conflict. The video from МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники showing severe combat injuries highlights the direct human and environmental impact of combat. Further reports of fire and smoke in a forest area in Russia-occupied Ukraine suggest continued environmental damage. The report of Poltava and its community are without electricity confirms immediate environmental/infrastructure impact. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UA source) photo message "Damn clouds" could indicate weather conditions affecting drone operations. A threat of ballistic weapons from the south in areas where air raid alerts have been declared. Ballistic missile arrival in Dobroslav. A high-speed target on Odesa Oblast, heading northwest. A large fire is confirmed in Volgograd, Russia, at a hospital on the territory of an oil refinery due to a UAV attack, indicating environmental impact on Russian territory from UA deep strikes. The governor confirmed that both the oil refinery and the hospital roof are on fire. RF source reports yellow aviation danger code for Klyuchevskoy Volcano in Kamchatka. This is a natural environmental event, unrelated to combat, but reported by a RF news agency. The Kremenchuk Oil Refinery has been struck by RF forces, resulting in a powerful fire, indicating significant environmental damage and disruption to fuel supply for Ukraine. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) provides a photo showing fire and smoke rising from a large industrial complex at night, captioned "Russians attacked Poltava Oblast overnight," indicating a strike on critical infrastructure, likely the Kremenchuk oil refinery, confirming ongoing environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA sources) report a massive overnight attack on Poltava Oblast by the enemy, as stated by the OVA, causing power outages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ASTRA (UA source) reports Russia massively attacked Poltava Oblast, causing power problems, citing local authorities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) WarGonzo (RF source) photo messages confirming RF attacks on energy objects in Kremenchuk, showing significant smoke, further confirm environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна (UA source) photo message shows dense black smoke from Kremenchuk, directly confirming severe environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video confirms burning Azerbaijani oil tanks in Kremenchuk with thick black smoke, indicating significant environmental damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) video shows a large urban conflagration with thick smoke rising over residential buildings in Kremenchuk/Lubny, explicitly stating hits on the gas transportation system and oil refinery, confirming severe environmental and infrastructure damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows a large plume of dark smoke rising over Kremenchuk, visually confirming significant environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ASTRA (UA source) videos and photos of smoke over Kremenchuk further confirm the environmental damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Два майора (RF source) photo messages and text confirm the environmental aftermath of strikes on Kremenchuk, including a large smoke plume. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video and photo messages confirm significant smoke over Kremenchuk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна (UA source) video and photos of the Iskander-M strike on Sloviansk confirm additional localized environmental damage and debris from missile strikes on civilian areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна (UA source) reports power outages in parts of Chernihiv Oblast after morning drone attacks, indicating immediate environmental and infrastructure impact from continued RF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) corroborates power outages in Chernihiv Oblast, confirming environmental disruption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT: A video from Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) shows a large building complex engulfed in flames with thick black smoke, identified as the Synelnykove district after overnight Shahed attacks. This confirms severe localized environmental damage and disruption from RF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

  • Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske Axis): RF forces (elements of 98th VDV Division) maintain foothold in eastern Kanal microdistrict, conducting battalion-sized mechanized assaults. UA units executed tactical withdrawal to prepared defensive positions west of the initial line of contact. Clashes persist near Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, Oleksandra-Kalynove, and Pleschiyivka. UA 93rd Brigade conducting clearance operations in Hruzke and Vesele (Dobropillya area) with tank and robotic support. RF 85th OMCBR operating in Soledar direction. RF 36th OA forces (37th OMCBR, 336th Marine Brigade) pressing towards Maliyivka, Shevchenko, and Yanvarske. UA Azov Brigade actively repelling RF attacks in Katerynivka, Toretsk direction. RF striking Myrnohrad and Ivanpillia with FAB bombs. RF MoD video confirms aerial strikes on urban areas in Donetsk People's Republic. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows a drone strike on an RF motorcyclist in Kurakhove direction. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims the assault on Konstantinovka has begun. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UA source) video indicates UA targeting of RF ground elements with precision strikes. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" successfully conducted an offensive operation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video showing captured Russian soldiers providing testimony confirms UA success. An Iskander-M strike on Sloviansk has been reported. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts photo message claiming RF forces are advancing on Konstantinovka direction. Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) video confirms Grad MLRS fire and subsequent strikes from RF forces. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts map of the Druzhkivka/Konstantinovka directions. Підрозділ Shadow (UA source) video shows successful drone strike on RF positions, including thermal imaging confirmation. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows damaged building and explosion, indicating ongoing military engagement. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video confirming ongoing intense fighting and holding of key heights in Dobropillya direction. The video confirms active combat operations with drone footage showing targeted vehicles. Colonelcassad has released new video showing "Adsky Krik" drone operators from the 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment, 5th Army, "Vostok" Group of Forces, destroying enemy armored vehicles, manpower, and drones in the South-Donetsk direction. TASS reports that RF MoD claims Southern Grouping fighters destroyed a platoon of "Kholodnyi Yar" militants. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Latest RF reporting indicates renewed strikes on Sloviansk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports a robotic platform of the AFU was destroyed near Konstantinovka, DNR, indicating RF continues to target UA automated systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна (UA source) video shows the aftermath of an RF Iskander-M missile strike on Sloviansk, with significant damage to civilian buildings, confirming continued RF missile targeting in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovskoe Direction): RF claims "big breakthrough" and liberation of Iskra. RF advanced up to 1.5km towards Sokil from Ocheretyne. UA forces cleared Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz (1st Azov Corps). UA forces repelled enemy near Rubizhne, Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Vesele, Vilne, Shakhove, Nykanorivka, and Sukhetske. UA Commander Syrskyi reports successful UA advances in Dobropillya and Pokrovsk directions. TASS reports RF 'Vostok' grouping advanced into Ivankiv, Poltavka, and Zeleny Gay. TASS reports Ukrainian National Guard relocating units from Kharkiv to Pokrovsk direction. RF Tsentr Group flamethrower units reportedly active near Krasnoarmeysk. RF artillery reconnaissance seeking "night bird" drones. RF claiming positions between Dobropillya and Kucherov Yar. Intense fighting reported for Udachne and Pervoye Maya. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) appeals for donations for "motorized rifle units and special forces" that are "actively advancing." A large map of Ukraine was observed in the Oval Office during the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) and STERNENKO (UA source) post photo messages of the large map of Ukraine in the Oval Office. Rybar (RF source) posts a tactical map for the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd direction as of 18 AUG 25. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video message showing intense fighting and "holding key heights" on the Dobropillya direction. The video appears to be drone footage showing engagements between opposing forces, including vehicles being targeted and destroyed (BBM, "Baba-Yaga" drone, relay station, truck). This confirms ongoing high-intensity combat. Операция Z (RF source) video shows "Otvazhnye" burning a UA stronghold near Pokrovsk using "Tosochka" (TOS-1A). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Rybar (RF source) video provides tactical analysis of "pocket" near Alekseevka and fighting for Udachnoe, indicating active combat and RF analytical focus on these areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Сливочный каприз (RF source) photo message with caption "18.08.25 Krasnoarmeysk - Poltavka" provides an RF claimed tactical map of the Pokrovsk direction, which can be cross-referenced with UA reports of the fighting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) A new RF claimed tactical map for the Pokrovsk direction as of 19 AUG 25, captioned "Krasnoarmeysk - Mayak," indicates continued RF focus on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UA reports capture of an RF prisoner from 150th Division by Azov units, and significant RF losses in Azov's areas. Mandatory evacuation of families with children in Druzhkivka suggests anticipated RF advances or increased threat. Closure of Ukrposhta branches in Konstantinovka from August 19 further indicates increasing threat to this logistics hub. Clashes reported near Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, Oleksandra-Kalynove, and Pleschiyivka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Pleschiyivka, Stepanivka, Yablunivka and Rusyn Yar in the Toretsk direction. STERNENKO (UA source) reports that Phoenix UAS tactical group is "cutting Russian logistics" in the Konstantinovka direction. Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) claims RF 4th OMCBR continues to attack towards Delievka – Aleksandro-Shulgino and attempts to break through and consolidate in Belaya Gora. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Toretsk, Scherbynivka and towards Oleksandro-Shultyne, Pleschiyivka, Rusyn Yar in thetsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Luhansk Oblast (Siversk Direction): RF forces report combat operations with drone-guided artillery and ATGM teams. RF MoD claims destruction of AFU stronghold in Krasny Liman direction. RF aims to advance 2 km to close a "fire bag" for AFU in Kremensky forests. Russian forces reportedly broke through Ukrainian defense lines in the Lyman district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Serebryanka, Siversk, Vyyimka, Fedorivka, Pereyizne and towards Siversk in the Siversk direction. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Kolodezi in Donetsk People's Republic (Luhansk direction). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 63rd Brigade utilizing three FPV drones to neutralize a Russian tank threatening Ukrainian positions east of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast. RF MoD confirms liberation of Kolodezi and Voronoye. Colonelcassad reports on mobile fire groups operating in Belgorod Oblast and Luhansk People's Republic. TASS reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including foreign mercenaries, suffered 4,500 personnel losses in the past week on the Luhansk People's Republic borders, with the Southern Group of Forces inflicting the most damage. TASS claims that Kyiv has struck Lisichansk, LPR, more than 10 times in the past week, resulting in civilian casualties. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Luhansk direction as of 18 AUG 25. Сливочный каприз (RF source) posts a summary of combat operations between August 14-17, 2025, which likely includes the Luhansk direction. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Fedorivka and Vyyimka in the Siversk direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) has provided a photo message of a tactical map for the Siversk direction. Mash na Donbasse reports over 1,000 residents of Kamyshnoye and Gerasimovka without power due to a severe fire in LPR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Сливочный каприз (RF source) photo messages with caption "19.08.25 Siversk - Vyyemka" provides RF claimed tactical map of the Siversk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Сливочный каприз (RF source) video demonstrates active combat operations in the Siversk direction, including drone strikes on enemy positions and personnel, confirming ongoing high-intensity engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): Sustained RF artillery and FPV drone attacks on Nikopol and surrounding communities. RF claims control of all settlements at the junction of DNR and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast after liberation of Iskra. Extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Nikopol confirmed. Ballistic missile strike on outskirts of Dnipro confirmed with damage to civilian property. Overnight drone attack on Pokrovska community, Synelnykivskyi district, caused fires at agricultural enterprises. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Voronoye in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetrovsk Regional State Administration) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopolshchyna. A ballistic missile threat on Synelnykove and a high-speed target from the east on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Explosions were heard in Pavlohrad. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports destruction of a UA T-72 tank by an FPV drone in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected near Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a drone (UAV) threat to Pavlohrad. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "powerful explosions" in Pavlohrad. TASS (RF source) claims UA forces in Iskra, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, killed an elderly female civilian. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropropetrovsk Regional State Administration) reports that RF struck Pavlohrad with a missile overnight, causing a fire. Воин DV (RF source) video footage from an aerial platform with thermal imaging, focused on a wooded area on the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and DNR, targeting what appears to be personnel or equipment. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces struck Pavlohrad Repair and Mechanical Plant and Technical Equipment Plant. MoD Russia (RF source) video of servicemen from the Vostok Group of Forces describing the liberation of Iskra in Donetsk People's Republic. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) posts a UA UAV attacked a gas station in Yenakiieve, DNR. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports that UA forces inflicted a successful strike on a gas station in Yenakiieve. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports a substation hit by a "Geran" drone in Mezhove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video of a burning power substation in Mezhove, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetrovsk Regional State Administration) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol, Marhanets, and Pokrovske communities throughout the day. Photos show damaged civilian buildings. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of strike UAVs in eastern Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, heading towards Pavlohrad. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 1 "moped" (Shahed) heading towards Dnipro. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UA Air Defense reports 7 enemy UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ASTRA (UA source) reports one person injured after Russian attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports the "SKALA" Regiment conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts, confirming UA tactical gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) video claims destruction of a French "Caesar" self-propelled howitzer and an ammunition vehicle in the Dnipropetrovsk border region by "Vostok" Group of Forces, signaling continued RF focus on Western-supplied artillery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video depicts a large building complex engulfed in flames and thick black smoke after overnight Shahed attacks in the Synelnykove district. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkivskyi District): UA Air Force alerts for high-speed targets and KAB launches. RF claims improved position near Krasny Perviy, controlling ~6 km of road to Dvorechnaya. A substantial increase (estimated 40%) in Russian EW emissions has been detected in the Kharkiv sector, primarily targeting Ukrainian reconnaissance UAVs and degrading ISR capabilities. Continued RF reconnaissance UAVs in northern and eastern Kharkiv Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Khatnye and Fyholivka in the South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 4 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes in the past day. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. РБК-Україна reports 11 casualties in Kharkiv from recent RF attack. Олег Синєгубов, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, reports 3 additional casualties, bringing total to 11. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates the 11 casualties. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration (UA source), provided multiple photo messages showing damaged civilian residential buildings. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "continuing to pound Kharkiv" with "powerful explosions." РБК-Україна reports an explosion heard in Kharkiv. Mayor Igor Terekhov confirms "Shahed" hits in Industrialnyi district. Oleg Syniehubov confirms two casualties (25-year-old male, 79-year-old female) from drone strike. Subsequent reports from Oleg Syniehubov indicate 10-year-old boy, 19-year-old girl, 46-year-old male, and 47-year-old female hospitalized. Mayor Igor Terekhov reports one fatality and five injured. Kharkiv now reports four fatalities (up from three), including a one-year-old child and a 55-year-old woman, and 17 injured (including 6 children). Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) reports 5 people are currently missing. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and РБК-УкраїНА (UA source) have released additional video footage showing the ongoing search and rescue operation. ASTRA (UA source) has released photos and a drone video showing the extensive destruction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports on the drone attack on a residential high-rise. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА reports a 16-year-old boy became the fourth victim. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports five fatalities. STERNENKO (UA source) corroborates five fatalities. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates five fatalities. Север.Реалії (UA source) reports at least four fatalities. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) reports enemy strikes on Kharkiv and 10 settlements. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports five fatalities and at least 30 injured. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) reports the number of injured has increased to 20. ASTRA (UA source) also reports 30 injured. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts video and photo messages of the aftermath. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) declares August 18 a day of mourning. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports the number of injured has increased to 20. ASTRA (UA source) reports the number of fatalities has increased to 6. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) confirms 6 fatalities. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts an informational message. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the number of fatalities has risen to 7. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates 7 fatalities. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) also confirms 7 fatalities. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts video of border guards liquidating 5 enemy targets. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and Рыбарь (RF source) both post video of a military convoy with RF and US flags. ASTRA (UA source) posts video of a Russian attack on Kharkiv from the city's mayor. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video of Kharkiv mayor showing morning Shahed strikes. РБК-УкраїНА (UA source) posts video of Kharkiv mayor showing the moment of a Russian strike. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts video of Kharkiv, claiming "Tests continue. Be good!". ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing the moment of an RF strike on a residential building. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video showing medics attempting to resuscitate a small child. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, reports an additional three people sought medical attention, bringing total to 23. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts multiple photo messages indicating effective UA drone reconnaissance by the 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade. Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) has provided a photo message warning of fire danger. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on northern Kharkiv Oblast. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 24 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes last week. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video footage of a series of impacts in Kharkiv. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports that "Khartia" drones successfully located and struck an RF camp in Kharkiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts three photo messages depicting a battle map of the Kharkiv direction. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) posts a photo message celebrating Ukrainian leadership. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video showing civilian structures being transported by trucks at night. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a video of a formal gathering of international dignitaries, including Zelenskyy and Trump. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows drone operators of the 3rd Assault Brigade dropping munitions on RF in Kharkiv Oblast. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast is under bomb strike and threat of strike UAVs. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports RF KAB strikes on Ruska Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows 3rd Assault Brigade drone operators striking RF positions in Kharkiv Oblast while peace talks are ongoing. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast under bomb strike and UAV threat. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. A high-speed target is moving through Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast, likely a cruise missile. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Another high-speed target reported in Kharkiv Oblast, same course. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UA sources report 4 missiles from Kharkiv Oblast now over Poltava Oblast, heading towards Kremenchuk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 16 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast sustained enemy strikes yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports RF forces struck two UA locations in Khatnye and Chuhunivka, Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Chernihiv Oblast: UA Air Force alerts for enemy reconnaissance UAVs, high-speed targets, and threat of strike UAVs. "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on a forward Ukrainian command post in Birino area confirmed. Ballistic missile impact in Honcharivske reported. RF claims destruction of a foreign mercenary legion's base. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Krasnyy Khutir of Chernihiv region. Colonelcassad reports Kinzhal strike near Desna and Geran/Gerbera strikes near Semenivka (Chernihiv Oblast). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV threat to Brovary and Boryspil districts in Kyiv Oblast and a UAV threat to Kyiv. Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy UAVs on northern Chernihiv Oblast and in the Pryluky area. НгП раZVедка (RF source) claims "Geran" drones are "drilling" Chernihiv Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports enemy UAVs attacked Kyiv Oblast overnight, damaging a hangar in Boryspil district. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Chernihiv Oblast. MoD Russia (RF source) video claiming Geran-2 UAVs hit AFU special forces units of GUR near Zhadovo, Chernihiv region. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UA source) reports UAVs in central Chernihiv Oblast near Pryluky. Операция Z (RF source) posts video claiming Geran strikes hit GUR special forces in Chernihiv. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy strike UAV on northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. UA Air Force reports a UAV threat in Chernihiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces struck a training center in Chernihiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for Chernihiv Oblast has been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Latest UA Air Force reports an enemy UAV on Chernihiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна (UA source) reports that RF drones attacked Chernihiv Oblast this morning, causing power outages in some settlements, confirming continued RF drone activity in the area and immediate civilian impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) corroborates that parts of Chernihiv Oblast are without electricity after the morning UAV attack, further confirming the immediate civilian impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kherson Oblast (Left Bank Dnieper): UA reports destruction of an RF ammunition depot and four vehicles on the left bank. RF claims Lancet strike destroyed US M-777 howitzer and Ukrainian Bogdana SPG on right bank. Ukrainian Navy radio intercepts confirm loss of Russian Su-30SM fighter jet southeast of Snake Island. UA forces repelled 4-6 Russian army assaults. UA source claims reconnaissance units entered "Novaya Kakhovka" on the Kherson direction and are shelling enemy defenses. Southern Ukraine Defense Forces report continued strikes on enemy deployment areas, fire positions, and rear areas in the southern operational zone. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports strikes on Khadzhibeevka and Usatove (Odesa region), specifically targeting "marine BECs" and a 330kv power substation. TASS (RF source) claims that the "Kyiv-appointed" administration of Kherson has long since left the city and is operating remotely from Mykolaiv. TASS reports that the AFU lost a Starlink satellite communication station and 17 UAV control points in the zone of responsibility of the 'Vostok' grouping in the past 24 hours. Два майора (RF source) posts thermal imaging footage claiming to show activity in Kherson at night. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) provides operational information for the Southern Defense Forces. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Kherson direction as of 18 AUG 25. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of explosions and vehicle activity in the Kherson direction. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows artillerymen of the 49th Army hitting fortifications on the right bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) photo message provides operational information for the Southern Defense Forces as of 08:00 19 AUG 25, indicating continued UA monitoring and defense in the southern operational zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) photo message with caption "⚡️⚡️Сили оборони Півдня України продовжують уражати місця дислокації ворога, його вогневі позиції та тили." confirms ongoing UA deep strikes and counter-battery fire in the Southern operational zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Odesa Oblast: STERNENKO reports groups of strike UAVs in the north and near Odesa Oblast. РБК-Україна reports an alert from Odesa Oblast Military Administration calling residents to shelters due to strike UAVs. STERNENKO reports Odesa is under a massive "Shahed" drone attack, with explosions heard. Николаевский Ванёк reports reduction in drone numbers near Odesa. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports continued drone threats in Velyka Balka-Nerubaiske and Radisne-Velykyi Dalnyk (Odesa Oblast). ASTRA reports a large fire in Odesa after a massive Shahed strike. Операция Z (RF source) posts multiple photo and video messages reporting "powerful strikes on enemy objects in Odesa, fires in the city." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports that RF drones struck a Nova Poshta terminal in Odesa. Дневник Десантника (RF source) claims that their strike UAVs hit "several objects" in Odesa overnight. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна (UA source) confirm an RF drone strike on a fuel and energy infrastructure object and a two-story building in the suburbs of Odesa. ASTRA reports a fire on a fuel and energy infrastructure object in Odesa Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) reports Odesa was attacked by Shaheds all night. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video of the aftermath of strikes on an alleged SOCAR oil depot in Odesa Oblast. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims Geran drones destroyed a "giant fuel terminal" of SOCAR. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) reports 24 Shahed UAVs destroyed by Southern Defense Forces. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a map/graphic titled "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine August 17 - August 18, 2025," which likely includes Odesa. Colonelcassad also posts video of an explosion with "kurs_odessa" watermark. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video claiming a massive Shahed attack on SOCAR oil depot in Odesa Oblast. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims "Azerbaijani fuel tanks extinguished." Colonelcassad (RF source) comments that overnight strikes in Odesa targeted Nova Poshta objects and SOCAR. Два майора (RF source) posts video of significant damage to industrial or storage tanks in Odesa. Colonelcassad (RF source) also posts video showing the aftermath of attacks on SOCAR in Odesa. Операция Z (RF source) provides photos of a large fire, likely in Odesa. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows a significant fire at the SOCAR oil depot. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts photos showing a large fire at the SOCAR oil depot in Odesa. Kotsnews (RF source) posts videos confirming significant damage and fires. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) also posts video of the aftermath of the SOCAR oil depot strike. Два майора (RF source) has posted a photo message regarding Romania's desire to expand joint Black Sea patrolling with Bulgaria and Turkey. Colonelcassad (RF source) provides a summary of strikes. WarGonzo (RF source) posted videos showing the aftermath of the SOCAR strike in Odesa. STERNENKO video shows aerial footage likely from a drone, observing an area with what appear to be defensive positions or fortifications. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha reacting to the RF strike on the SOCAR oil depot. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile arrival in Dobroslav. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target on Odesa Oblast, heading northwest. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RF claims destruction of AFU ammunition depot. 578 RF strikes on 14 settlements over past day. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast. A 64-year-old man was wounded in a hostile attack on Polohivskyi district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Tolstoy, Komyshuvakha, Zelene Pole, Maliyivka, Myrne, Zaporizhzhke, Olhivske in the Novopavlivka direction. Colonelcassad reports VKC and missile forces conducted strikes on targets in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація reports air raid alert over. An air raid alert has been declared in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and has since been lifted. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) has re-declared an air raid alert. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of aviation weapons use. UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia district. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports the air raid alert has been lifted. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) has re-declared an air raid alert. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports ballistic missile activity towards Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target towards Zaporizhzhia. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports an explosion in Zaporizhzhia. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Zaporizhzhia is under ballistic missile attack. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports a second ballistic missile. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports a third explosion. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports repeated explosions. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports RF is attempting to strike critical infrastructure. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) corroborates RF attempts to strike critical infrastructure. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) confirms RF strikes on Zaporizhzhia, with two impacts and an increase in injured persons to four. РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborates two strikes. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the ballistic missile threat has been lifted. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports four injured. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) also reports four injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports that 6 people, two in serious condition, have been hospitalized. ASTRA (UA source) also reports 6 injured. РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborates increasing casualties. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts photos from the State Emergency Service. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports 7 injured. ASTRA (UA source) reports 17 injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) confirms 17 injured. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) also reports 17 injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) posts photos showing damage. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Syrskyi stating Russia is concentrating troops and planning a large-scale offensive. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) posts video showing firefighters and emergency personnel clearing debris. STERNENKO (UA source) posts video of significant damage. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Zelenyy Hay, Tolstoy, Oleksandrohrad, Voskresenka, Maliyivka, Vilne Pole and Temyrivka in the Novopavlivka direction. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Novoandriyivka in the Orikhiv direction. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA) reports a man rescued from debris has died. РБК-Україна (UA) corroborates the death. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA) reports air raid alert lifted. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports 3 dead and 18 injured from the morning attack. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports 23 people, injured by the enemy attack, are receiving medical assistance. РБК-Україна (UA) corroborates 23 injured. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) corroborates 23 injured. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates 23 injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) posts video showing the aftermath of the missile strike. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a video appealing for donations for drones and Starlink. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) posts photos showing the 44th Separate Artillery Brigade "Bogdana" successfully destroying enemy equipment. ASTRA (UA source) reports on an RF M113 APC with RF and US flags operating in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Два майора (RF source) posted a video claimed to be a tank strike in the Lukyanovskoe area of Zaporizhzhia. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports an increase in the number of injured persons to 27. РБК-Україна (UA) reports the number of injured has risen to 24. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) states that the Commander-in-Chief's statement about enemy intent to break through the Zaporizhzhia front and advance deep into Ukrainian territory was not new to them. Два майора (RF source) posted a drone video from the Zaporizhzhia front. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the number of injured in Zaporizhzhia increased to 30. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports 30 injured. ASTRA (UA source) reports 30 injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports Zaporizhzhia Oblast is a leader in drone procurement. ASTRA (UA source) reports up to 30 injured. Photos confirm significant damage to residential buildings. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports an air raid alert declared. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of ballistic weapons. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports the number of injured has increased to 33. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) declares an air raid alert. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UA source) reports a threat of ballistic weapons use. Два майора (RF source) reports on current combat activity on the Zaporizhzhia front. The air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a video appealing for donations. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video showing RF forces striking a UA tank in a wooded area near Lukyanovskoe, Zaporizhzhia direction. The video appears to be FPV drone footage, showing the drone's telemetry and a Russian watermark, indicating RF drone activity. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 3 dead and 33 injured in Zaporizhzhia from yesterday's enemy attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a "Minute of Silence" video, signifying continued mourning for casualties in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) video shows two RF servicemen from the 7th Airborne Division appealing for donations for drones and Starlink, suggesting ongoing logistical needs in the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has released a video confirming significant damage to civilian infrastructure, including residential and private buildings, and updated casualty figures to 3 fatalities and 34 injured after a Russian missile strike around 0900Z. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kupyansk Axis: Previous reports indicated a decisive shift of RF main effort with the capture of Ivanivka. RF continues strikes on settlements. UA reports successful tank sorties and drone operations against RF personnel and equipment. Commander of "Achilles" Regiment Fedorenko (UA source) reports RF plans to occupy Kupyansk by August 24. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports the first mechanized attack by RF on the left bank of Kupyansk in a long time. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Kupyansk direction as of 18 AUG 25. STERNENKO (UA source) reports that 905 drones has been delivered to the Defense Forces in the last two days. Николаевский Ванёк reports a new "singing" RF prisoner was taken under Muravka, Donetsk Oblast, identified as Vladimir Sergeevich from the 35th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. TASS reports the head of Kharkiv VGA Ganchev claims Russian forces are encircling Kupyansk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Sumy Oblast: РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian forces actively destroying the enemy in Sumy Oblast, pushing back Russians near Oleksiivka and Yunakivka. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of a destroyed UA M577 command post vehicle in Sumy Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing an RF truck with ammunition epically destroyed by a Ukrainian drone on the way to Sumy Oblast. TASS reports that RF forces have improved their tactical position near Yunakovka, Sumy Oblast. Операция Z (RF source) thermal imagery video claims successful destruction of UA armored vehicles by Spetsnaz "Anvar" and VDV units supporting an offensive on Sumy. РБК-Україна reports a 57-year-old woman injured by a KAB strike on Novoslobidska community, Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new UAVs on northern Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports a missile strike on Sumy. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted photo messages confirming a missile strike on an educational institution. НгП раZVедка (RF source) posts a mocking caption suggesting RF strikes or activity in Shostka. RF reconnaissance UAVs are operating near Putyvl. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Sumy. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports a series of explosions. Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 new RF UAVs detected east of Bilopillya. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports continued RF attacks on Sumy. Colonelcassad shares video footage from the 68th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th Army, Western Military District. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs. UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs. TASS (RF source) claims that Ukrainian Armed Forces command in Sumy Oblast has committed all resources to outflank RF forces in Yunakivka. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video showing two individuals in a wooded area with abandoned cars and a quad bike, claiming it depicts RF forces marauding in border villages of Kursk Oblast. Kotsnews (RF source) posts video with caption "Syrsky: Kursk - best result among all major operations," which is an RF information operation. MoD Russia (RF source) video claiming a BM-21 Grad MLRS crew eliminated a manpower cluster. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts video of a Lancet loitering munition preparation and strike. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University. РБК-Україна (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University. Alex Parker Returns (RF) claims the Sumy State University was hit by a "Flamingo missile." Два майора (RF source) posts video showing an RF FPV drone strike. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy strike UAV on northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. RF activity on the Sumy direction, with an aerial view of an exploding vehicle. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) asserts that RF forces have been defeated in Sumy Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a video of drone-guided artillery or air strikes. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) amplifies Syrsky's (misquoted) statements. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts a photo message showing activity on the Eastern Direction. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports a severe injury to an RF General in Kursk Oblast from a HIMARS strike. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video from local residents showing a visual confirmation of RF "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on Sumy State University. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAV threat. TASS (RF source) reports RF military expert Yan Gagin claiming AFU unsuccessfully counterattack. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows Uragan MLRS crews eliminating AFU armored vehicles. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows T-80BVM tanks of the Sever Group of Forces eliminating AFU hardware. RF has again attacked civilian infrastructure in Sumy. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast moving south. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of enemy UAVs on the north, east, and south of Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. An explosion was heard in Sumy. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Sumy Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UA source) video indicates UA forces are expanding their buffer zone in the Sumy region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) video shows two individuals in a wooded area, likely RF personnel, but content is general and not highly specific to Sumy operations. (LOW CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO (UA source) posts a photo message with incendiary content, implying attacks on Russian border regions, which is a PSYOP. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat from the northeast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts a photo message showing a battlefield map for the Sumy direction, indicating active counterattacks by VSU and the use of SU-27 fighter jets for strikes on RF positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Strategic Air Activity: Takeoff of 2x Tu-95MS strategic bombers, indicating potential for new missile launches. These have completed pre-launch maneuvers near Engels, indicating imminent missile launches. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports new pre-launch maneuvers by 2x Tu-95MS aircraft in Volgograd Governorate. As of 190159Z AUG 25, no missiles from Tu-95MS aircraft have been observed by UA sources. UA Air Force has confirmed cruise missiles heading for Kremenchuk. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 5 missiles are approaching Kremenchuk. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports "minus" on the missiles for Kremenchuk, indicating successful interception or re-routing. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a video of a truck-mounted MLRS firing multiple salvos, followed by drone footage of impacts, confirming active RF artillery and drone support for ground operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Fighterbomber (RF source) posts an image with "Good morning, country!", which is a typical RF morning aviation photo message, likely indicating ongoing air operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports continued activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeastern and southeastern directions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) НгП раZVедка (RF source) video provides a summary of strikes on enemy targets, indicating continued RF kinetic operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAV Movement: Multiple groups of RF strike UAVs reported across northeastern Ukraine (Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, northern Dnipropetrovsk, northern Zaporizhzhia), predominantly heading towards Kremenchuk. A separate UAV group is heading towards Brovary in Kyiv Oblast. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports approximately 17 "mopeds" heading towards/through Kremenchuk, confirming the third wave, with 5 remaining drones. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 1 "moped" (Shahed) heading towards Dnipro. A UAV is also reported heading to Zaporizhzhia from the north. This suggests a coordinated large-scale drone attack targeting central Ukraine, possibly energy or logistics infrastructure. TASS reports air defense forces are repelling a massive UAV attack on Volgograd Oblast. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that enemy strike UAVs are still being detected in Ukraine's airspace. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat for all regions has been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF MoD reports 23 UAVs shot down overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO (UA source) photo message indicates ongoing drone activity targeting Russian areas or military, and serves as a PSYOP against RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) reports 236 enemy targets shot down/suppressed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports 236/280 enemy targets shot down/suppressed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Военкор Котенок (RF source) reports that 23 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down overnight over Russian territory, stating all were of aircraft type. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) A map from Colonelcassad (RF source) shows the movement of RF drones and missiles over Ukraine on 19 AUG 25, indicating widespread and sustained aerial attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Diplomatic Control Measures: Negotiations between Trump, Zelenskyy, and European leaders are ongoing in the White House. RF sources confirm Trump's phone call with Putin and the initiation of preparation for a tripartite meeting (US-RF-UA) to discuss the conflict. Trump has publicly outlined his conditions for peace, including no NATO membership for Ukraine, the concept of selling rather than giving weapons, and discussing territory exchange based on current front lines. Zelenskyy has reaffirmed Ukraine's stance against territorial concessions and for peace based on a strong security system. Zelenskyy has also stated he wants to meet Putin without preconditions to discuss territorial issues bilaterally. NATO Secretary General Rutte stated that a virtual meeting of the "coalition of the willing" will take place on August 19. Rutte also confirmed that US arms supplies to Ukraine will continue through NATO countries. Rutte stated the question of Ukrainian territorial concessions was not discussed at the White House meeting. Macron confirmed discussions on strengthening sanctions against Russia if the conflict does not end. Macron stated that territory exchange was not discussed. Rutte clarified that deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine was not discussed. Rutte remains unclear on the seriousness of Trump administration's security guarantee promises. Zelenskiy / Official released a video summary of the Washington negotiations, highlighting discussions with President Trump, battlefield situation, and steps towards peace, and multi-format meetings with European leaders and the US President. TASS reports that European advisors will work with the US on security guarantees for Ukraine. TASS reports Macron views US willingness to participate in Ukraine's security as progress. ASTRA (UA source) reports that Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, stated: "Every Ukrainian child abducted by Russia must be returned to their families." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS (RF source) reports that the Ukrainian crisis has become an expensive lesson for Europe, which has every reason to play a more active role in achieving peace, citing the Global Times. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна (UA source) reports that US State Secretary Marco Rubio discussed a new mechanism for providing American weapons to Ukraine, indicating ongoing commitment to military aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts a video of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stating that President Trump was instrumental in breaking the deadlock with Putin, highlighting Trump's unique role in diplomacy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS (RF source) reports that a Chinese expert believes the Putin-Trump meeting in Alaska created conditions for Ukraine negotiations, aiming to frame RF as proactive in seeking peace. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Propaganda) РБК-Україна (UA source) reports US State Secretary Rubio stating that non-European countries will also participate in developing security guarantees for Ukraine, indicating a broader international commitment to Ukraine's security beyond just Europe. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ASTRA (UA source) posts a video of French President Emmanuel Macron stating that Russia cannot be trusted without security guarantees due to past actions (Georgia 2008, Crimea 2014), emphasizing the importance of robust security commitments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна (UA source) posts a photo message of Zelenskyy thanking Melania Trump for her attention to the issue of Ukrainian children abducted by Russia, highlighting a humanitarian aspect of the diplomatic engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Два майора (RF source) posts a video from British Sky News discussing Crimea's historical ties to Russia, signaling an RF information operation aimed at shaping the narrative around Crimea's status. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Propaganda) Prime Minister of Japan Shigeru Ishiba states for the first time that innocent people are dying due to the conflict in Ukraine and Russia, commenting on the Trump-Zelenskyy-European leaders negotiations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports that the talks between Trump, European leaders, and Zelenskyy showed the world order is changing, citing The Globe and Mail, which is part of RF's information operation to portray a shifting global power balance favorable to them. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна (UA source) reports NATO Secretary General Rutte stated that 30 countries have been developing security guarantees for Ukraine for several months, indicating ongoing, broad international support despite public statements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Операция Z (RF source) video on US State Secretary Marco Rubio discussing the change in US military aid to Ukraine (Europe paying), is an RF information operation intended to highlight perceived shifts in Western support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Fighterbomber (RF source) photo message with a political caption about the recent diplomatic meeting reflects RF narrative control over the summit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad (RF source) photo message highlighting Trump discussing negotiations with Putin over a map showing "new Russian regions and Crimea" is a strong RF information operation aiming to legitimize annexed territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна (UA source) photo message confirms that Zelenskyy, during talks with Trump, noted the possibility of a "proportional exchange," as reported by WSJ, indicating a potential shift in UA's diplomatic stance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Analytical Judgment based on WSJ report) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) photo message also reports Zelenskyy did not rule out territory exchange with Trump, citing WSJ, further indicating this shift. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Analytical Judgment based on WSJ report) STERNENKO (UA source) reports Zelenskyy gave Trump a golf club from a Ukrainian junior sergeant, indicating a symbolic gesture. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Операция Z (RF source, referencing Russkaya Vesna) posts a photo message claiming Zelenskyy thanked Trump 11 times in five minutes, aimed at ridiculing Zelenskyy and portraying him as subservient. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Propaganda) TASS (RF source) reports Macron named Geneva as a possible location for a bilateral Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, indicating continued diplomatic efforts to find a resolution. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Reuters (UA source) reports that a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy may take place in Hungary. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) also reports a potential meeting in Hungary. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Операция Z (RF source) reports Macron stating the meeting could be in Geneva, Switzerland. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) corroborates Macron's statement on Geneva. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • White House Video Release: The White House has released video footage of Zelenskyy and European leaders arriving in Washington, emphasizing the diplomatic nature of the visit. RBC-Ukraine has released a photo from the White House showing Trump on a phone call with Putin, confirming the direct communication channel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Операция Z (RF source) posts a White House photo of Trump's phone call with Putin, confirming the direct communication channel and leveraging it for RF narrative control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Yerbak Photo Release: Andriy Yermak has posted a photo from the Washington meeting, indicating high-level Ukrainian participation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • General Air Threat Lifted: The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has reported that the threat for all regions has been lifted as of 190257Z AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA Leadership Video Update: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has posted a video message from President Zelenskyy summarizing the Washington negotiations. Zelenskyy mentions discussing many issues with President Trump, including the battlefield situation and steps towards peace. He also notes several meetings in formats with European leaders and the US President. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ryazan Gunpowder Plant Fatalities: TASS and ASTRA (UA source) report the number of fatalities at the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast has increased to 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Север.Реалии (UA source) also reports 25 fatalities at the "Elastic" plant. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Zelenskyy on Bilateral/Trilateral Meetings: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Zelenskyy stated that Russia initially proposed a bilateral Ukraine-RF meeting, followed by a trilateral one. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • US State Secretary Rubio on Security Guarantees: RBC-Ukraine reports US State Secretary Marco Rubio stated that after the war, Ukraine will be able to conclude security agreements with various countries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Housing Benefits: TASS reports that the Russian government supported expanding housing benefits for military personnel with children with disabilities, indicating a domestic policy aimed at supporting military families. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF MoD Daily Figure: Минобороны России (RF source) has released its daily figure graphic, providing updated statistics on perceived Ukrainian losses, serving as a propaganda tool. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kryvyi Rih Situation: Олександр Вілкул (UA source) reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 19 AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Colonelcassad (RF) Photo Messages: Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages under the caption "Moments of the SVO. Frontline daily life," depicting RF personnel, equipment, and combat situations. This provides visual confirmation of ongoing RF operations and forces, serving as morale-boosting content for the RF audience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • TASS on Vaping Ban: TASS reports on a proposal to ban vaping in Russia, which is a domestic social policy issue, unrelated to the conflict, but indicates internal governance and attempts to project normalcy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RBC Ukraine News Graphic: РБК-Україна (UA source) presents a general news graphic summarizing overnight events. (LOW CONFIDENCE - No military content.)
  • RF Domestic News (TASS): TASS reports Wildberries has launched a test display of apartments in new buildings, a domestic economic news item, unrelated to the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA Commemorative Events: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a "Minute of Silence" video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) and Оперативний ЗСУ (UA sources) posts a "Minute of Silence" photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) posts a photo message showing a "Minute of Silence" graphic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) These indicate ongoing national mourning and commemoration efforts by UA authorities.
  • RF Domestic Social Issues: Новости Москвы (RF source) reports on students being checked for adherence to traditional values, indicating tightening social control in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Humanitarian Impact in Donetsk: Mash на Донбассе (RF source) video shows residents of Donetsk experiencing severe water shortages due to infrastructure damage, highlighting direct civilian impact of the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Internal Security Operations: ASTRA and TASS videos confirm FSB detention of an individual in Udmurtia, accused of planning railway sabotage and justifying terrorism. This indicates active Russian counter-terrorism/internal security measures, potentially linked to Ukrainian intelligence efforts or internal dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

  • Capabilities:
    • Air/Missile/UAV: RF maintains significant capabilities for long-range missile (Iskander-M, cruise missiles from Tu-95MS) and UAV (Shahed/Geran-2) strikes targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure (energy, oil refineries, logistics hubs) and civilian areas. Confirmed strikes on Kremenchuk oil refinery, Odesa oil depot, Sloviansk, Sumy, Pavlohrad, and continued widespread UAV activity across multiple oblasts (Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kyiv) indicate an enduring intent to degrade Ukraine's logistical and energy resilience. The reported launch of 4 ballistic missiles and 140 drones overnight, with 88-236 targets reportedly shot down/suppressed by UA, underscores the sheer volume of these attacks. RF MoD confirms 23 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF territory overnight, indicating persistent UA deep strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Ground: RF continues to conduct mechanized assaults, particularly in Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovskoe directions). The 98th VDV Division is active in Chasiv Yar, and elements of 36th OA (37th OMCBR, 336th Marine Brigade) and 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment are engaged in the Pokrovsk direction and South-Donetsk direction. Use of TOS-1A (Tosochka) flamethrowers near Pokrovsk indicates continued employment of specialized, high-impact close support systems. Claims of breakthroughs and advances (e.g., towards Sokil from Ocheretyne, in Ivankiv, Poltavka, Zeleny Gay) suggest an ongoing offensive posture, though UA sources often contradict these claims with reports of repelled assaults and retaken territory. The ongoing testing of positive buoyancy body armor by "Espanola" (RF source) suggests potential for specialized operations, possibly amphibious or bridging operations, though direct link to current combat is low. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Electronic Warfare (EW): A substantial increase (estimated 40%) in Russian EW emissions in the Kharkiv sector, primarily targeting UA reconnaissance UAVs, indicates a robust and evolving EW capability. This is designed to degrade UA ISR capabilities. The previously noted new EW system near Krasnohorivka remains a significant threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Artillery/Fire Support: Continued widespread use of artillery (including Grad MLRS by 238th Artillery Brigade) and FAB-series glide bombs (e.g., Myrnohrad, Ivanpillia, Rayskoe) confirms RF's reliance on indirect fire to support ground operations and strike targets across the front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Intentions:
    • Territorial Gain: Primary intention remains to consolidate and expand control in Donetsk Oblast, particularly towards Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Konstantinovka, with stated goals of liberating Krasnoarmeysk and Konstantinovka. Continued pushes in the Siversk direction to close a "fire bag" are also evident. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Degrade UA Capabilities: RF continues to target UA military infrastructure (UAV control points, repair bases, ammunition depots) and critical civilian infrastructure (energy, logistics), aiming to reduce UA's combat effectiveness and resilience. This includes recent strikes on fuel infrastructure and energy facilities in Poltava and Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Force Attrition: High volume of ground assaults and sustained missile/drone attacks aim to inflict maximum personnel and equipment losses on UA forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Information Warfare: Actively manipulating narratives around diplomatic talks, battlefield successes, and internal RF affairs to influence domestic and international audiences. RF media is heavily leveraging Trump's statements to promote their narrative regarding peace terms and territorial concessions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Internal Control: Continued efforts to suppress dissent and promote state ideology within Russia, as indicated by measures like "Conversations about important things" in kindergartens and checks on students' adherence to traditional values. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Courses of Action (COA):
    • Sustained Offensive Operations (Donetsk): Continue ground assaults, particularly in the Chasiv Yar, Pokrovskoe, and Toretsk directions, supported by heavy artillery, KABs, and FPV drones. This includes efforts to bypass and encircle UA strongholds. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Deep Strike Campaign: Maintain high tempo of missile and UAV strikes against UA rear areas, logistics nodes, and energy infrastructure across the country, especially targeting critical fuel supplies (e.g., Kremenchuk, Odesa) and potentially gas infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • EW Counter-ISR: Continue to enhance and employ EW systems to disrupt UA reconnaissance, particularly UAV operations, and degrade C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Information and Influence Operations (IO/PSYOP): Leverage diplomatic discussions and battlefield claims to shape perceptions, demoralize UA forces and population, and bolster domestic support. This includes emphasizing Western divisions or concessions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Internal Security Operations: Increased focus on preventing internal sabotage and maintaining domestic stability, as evidenced by FSB operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

  • Increased EW in Kharkiv: A significant (40%) increase in EW emissions in Kharkiv suggests a renewed focus on degrading UA ISR in that sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Coordinated Large-Scale Drone Attacks: The multiple waves of Shahed drones targeting Kremenchuk and other central Ukrainian cities from various directions indicate sophisticated planning and execution of UAV operations, likely aimed at overwhelming air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Shifting Diplomatic Narrative (RF): RF media is actively pushing narratives that portray Trump as aligned with their objectives (e.g., no NATO for Ukraine, territorial exchange), attempting to capitalize on the recent White House meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Targeting Robotic Platforms: RF reports destruction of a UA robotic platform near Konstantinovka, indicating an adaptation in targeting to include UA's emerging autonomous systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Emphasis on Protective Gear (RF): RF sources highlighting the effectiveness of donated protective gear for soldiers (e.g., Buryatia soldiers) is a tactical adaptation in information messaging, aiming to improve morale and encourage public support for equipping troops. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Renewed Focus on Gas Infrastructure: RF sources mentioning "strikes on enemy gas infrastructure objects" suggests a potential new or intensified targeting priority in their strategic strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Exploiting Diplomacy for IO: RF is actively using the recent US-Ukraine-European leader meeting to push narratives about a potential "territory exchange" by Zelenskyy and highlight divisions or concessions from the Western side. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Targeting Civilian Infrastructure for Social Disruption: The water shortage in Donetsk, whether intentional or a collateral effect, highlights a tactic of exacerbating civilian hardship. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

  • Ammunition & Fuel: RF continues high-volume artillery and missile strikes, suggesting adequate, though not unlimited, ammunition supplies. Recent UA strikes on fuel infrastructure (Kremenchuk oil refinery, Odesa SOCAR oil depot) could impact RF logistics if UA is able to sustain these strikes, although the initial impact on RF is not specified. UA claims to have completely destroyed the "Druzhba" oil pipeline (if confirmed) would be a significant blow to RF energy infrastructure, impacting broader supply chains. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - UA claim on Druzhba needs independent verification for full impact assessment)
  • Personnel & Equipment: RF continues to absorb significant personnel losses (UA claims 890-1010 RF personnel liquidated in 24h). Appeals for donations for drones and Starlink by RF servicemen (e.g., 7th Airborne Division) and for "motorized rifle units and special forces" (Poddubny) suggest ongoing logistical needs and reliance on public support for certain equipment, indicating potential shortages in high-tech or specialized gear provided by the state. Reports of RF personnel being forced to sign military contracts in Russia (Moscow Oblast farmers) suggest internal difficulties in meeting recruitment quotas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Training and Reserves: WarGonzo's claim of North Korean tank crews preparing for combat in Ukraine, if substantiated, would indicate an attempt to bolster RF combat capabilities with external support, possibly due to internal training or personnel shortfalls. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Needs independent verification)
  • Overall: Despite reported losses and ongoing logistical challenges, RF appears to maintain sufficient sustainment for current offensive operations and deep strikes, though the quality and motivation of new recruits remains a question.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

  • Ground Operations: Previous reporting indicated poor artillery coordination and tactical-level command friction within the 1st Army Corps (Avdiivka sector). While not explicitly updated, the continued emphasis on high-intensity assaults in areas like Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk may put continued strain on RF tactical C2. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
  • Strategic Level: Putin's active diplomatic engagement (calls with nine foreign leaders in three days, including Trump) suggests central strategic control over foreign policy and peace initiatives. The coordination of large-scale, multi-wave UAV attacks indicates effective strategic and operational level planning and execution for aerial strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • EW C2: The observed increase in EW emissions in Kharkiv, if sustained and coordinated, indicates effective C2 over these specialized assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Security C2: The FSB's reported prevention of a second Crimean Bridge attack and the apprehension of a saboteur in Udmurtia demonstrate effective internal security C2, aimed at preventing hybrid threats within RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

  • Defensive Posture (East): UA forces continue to maintain a defensive posture along the eastern front, particularly in Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk directions), executing tactical withdrawals to prepared positions where necessary. Despite RF claims of breakthroughs, UA reports successful repels and counter-DRG operations (e.g., Azov Brigade in Katerynivka, paratroopers in Pokrovsk). UA forces cleared several settlements in Donetsk Oblast (Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, Zolotyi Kolodyaz) indicating local counter-offensive capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Counter-Offensive Operations: UA 93rd Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" successfully cleared and took control of Hruzke and Vesele near Dobropillya, supported by tanks and ground robotic systems. The "SKALA" Regiment conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. UA forces are also expanding their buffer zone in the Sumy region. These indicate continued localized offensive capabilities and initiative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Air Defense: UA air defense is actively engaged against RF missile and UAV attacks, reporting 88-236 enemy targets shot down/suppressed from an estimated 140 drones and 4 missiles overnight. This demonstrates continued, albeit strained, air defense effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Deep Strike Capabilities: UA continues to conduct deep strikes into RF territory, successfully targeting oil refineries (Syzran, Volgograd), a seaport (Olya), and a gunpowder workshop (Ryazan), indicating an active and evolving long-range strike capability. The confirmed fatality count at the Ryazan plant underscores the impact of these strikes. The alleged destruction of the "Druzhba" oil pipeline, if confirmed, would represent a significant escalation of UA's deep strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Impact of Druzhba claim still requires verification)
  • ISR & Drone Operations: UA forces are effectively utilizing drones for reconnaissance (e.g., 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade in Kharkiv) and combat operations (e.g., 3rd Assault Brigade in Kharkiv, Phoenix UAS in Konstantinovka direction for logistics interdiction). The YOKAI GROUP's reported shootdown of a new Russian V2U UAV demonstrates effective counter-UAV capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Resilience & Morale: Despite heavy civilian casualties from RF strikes (e.g., Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia), UA units continue to fight, and authorities maintain public services and commemorative efforts. The coordinated visits by the Coordination Staff with families of missing and captured defenders suggest efforts to maintain morale and support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

  • Successes:
    • Territorial Gains: Reclaiming Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz in Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Offensive Operations: "SKALA" Regiment's successful operation on the Dnipropetrovsk-Donetsk border. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Personnel Attrition: Consistent reports of high RF personnel losses (890-1010 in 24h). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Deep Strikes: Successful long-range strikes on RF critical infrastructure (oil refineries, gunpowder plant, potentially Druzhba pipeline). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Air Defense Effectiveness: Downing a significant portion of RF drones and missiles in recent mass attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Counter-DRG Operations: Successful clearance of Russian DRGs in Pokrovsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Buffer Zone Expansion: Expanding buffer zone in Sumy region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Setbacks:
    • Territorial Losses: Tactical withdrawal in Chasiv Yar Kanal microdistrict. RF claimed advances towards Sokil from Ocheretyne, and alleged occupation of two unnamed settlements in Donetsk Oblast. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF claims often inflated)
    • Civilian Casualties & Infrastructure Damage: Heavy civilian casualties (7 fatalities, 23 injured in Kharkiv; 3 fatalities, 34 injured in Zaporizhzhia) and widespread damage to civilian infrastructure (residential buildings, educational institutions, energy facilities) from RF missile and drone strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • EW Degradation of ISR: Increased RF EW emissions in Kharkiv degrading UA reconnaissance UAV capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • "Lack of Infantry": UA sources reporting a critical "lack of infantry" in the Pokrovskoe direction suggests a significant personnel challenge. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA source self-reporting)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

  • Personnel: Reports of a "critical lack of infantry" in the Pokrovskoe direction suggest an urgent need for additional ground forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Air Defense Systems & Munitions: While UA air defense shows effectiveness, the high volume of RF missile and drone attacks implies a constant drain on air defense interceptor stocks, necessitating continuous resupply. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Counter-EW Capabilities: The increased RF EW activity highlights a critical need for enhanced UA counter-EW capabilities, including hardened ISR platforms and anti-radiation munitions, to counter enemy jamming. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Military Aid: Zelenskyy's statement about proposing a $90 billion arms deal to the US, including aircraft and air defense, underscores the significant material requirements for sustained defense and future operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Logistics & Repair: Continued attacks on logistics hubs (Pokrovsk train station, Nova Poshta terminals) and energy infrastructure (oil refineries, substations) necessitate resilient logistics and rapid repair capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Humanitarian Aid: Significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in multiple regions (Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Poltava) require substantial humanitarian aid, medical supplies, and reconstruction efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

  • RF Propaganda:
    • Narrative Control over Diplomacy: RF media (TASS, WarGonzo, Operation Z, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, Two Majors) is actively framing Trump's statements as concessions beneficial to Russia (no NATO for Ukraine, territorial exchange, direct talks with Putin). They are also ridiculing Zelenskyy's appearance and diplomatic efforts to undermine his international standing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Exaggerated Battlefield Successes: Continued claims of "liberation" of settlements (e.g., Iskra, Kolodezi, Voronoye) and significant UA losses (4,500 personnel in Luhansk over the past week) are likely inflated to boost domestic morale and project strength. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Legitimizing Annexed Territories: RF sources repeatedly display maps showing "new Russian regions and Crimea" to reinforce their claims of sovereignty. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Demonizing UA: Accusations of UA targeting civilians and framing attacks as "terrorist acts" (e.g., Smolensk NPP, Crimean Bridge) are used to justify RF actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Internal Cohesion: Propaganda efforts to highlight Russian public support for the military (e.g., donated protective gear) and domestic social initiatives (housing benefits, "Conversations about important things") aim to foster internal unity and stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA Counter-Propaganda:
    • Highlighting RF Attrition: Consistent reporting of high RF personnel losses serves to demoralize the enemy and rally domestic support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Showcasing UA Successes: Prompt dissemination of BDA on repelled assaults, captured prisoners, and retaken territory aims to counter RF claims and maintain morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Documenting Civilian Impact: Immediate reporting and visual evidence of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from RF strikes aims to galvanize international support and highlight RF war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Promoting Unity and Resilience: Commemorative events and public statements from leadership aim to maintain national resolve. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

  • Ukrainian Public:
    • Impact of Strikes: Civilian casualties in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, and infrastructure damage in Poltava and Odesa, will significantly strain public morale and increase calls for enhanced air defense. Mandatory evacuations (Druzhkivka) also indicate disruption and fear. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Resilience: Despite the attacks, public sentiment generally remains resolute, driven by national unity and commitment to defense. Commemorative events reinforce this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Diplomatic Expectations: The Trump-Zelenskyy meeting likely generated high expectations for continued and increased international support, making any perceived compromises or ambiguities in foreign aid particularly impactful. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Russian Public:
    • Domestic Control: Tightening internal controls on information and suppression of dissent (e.g., pensioner jailed for "rehabilitating Nazism," postal worker for online comments) indicate efforts to control public sentiment and prevent internal unrest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Recruitment Pressure: Reports of forced military contracts and appeals for donations for military equipment suggest increasing societal pressure and potential fatigue related to the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Economic Impact: Domestic news on housing benefits and pension increases suggests an attempt to mitigate the economic strain on the population. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

  • Washington Summit (Trump-Zelenskyy-European Leaders):
    • Key Outcomes (Preliminary):
      • Territorial Questions: Zelenskyy confirmed discussion of "sensitive territorial questions" and did not rule out "proportional exchange" with Trump, as reported by WSJ. This is a significant potential shift in UA's public negotiating position. Trump also stated that territory exchange based on current front lines would be discussed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Analytical Judgment based on WSJ report)
      • NATO Membership: Trump stated Ukraine would not be in NATO but would have security guarantees. NATO Secretary General Rutte reiterated an "irreversible path" for Ukraine into NATO but that membership is not currently being discussed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • Security Guarantees: Discussions ongoing for security guarantees involving European and non-European countries, to be formulated within 7-10 days. Trump stated Putin agreed to security guarantees. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • Arms Sales/Aid: Zelenskyy proposed a $90 billion arms procurement deal. Trump indicated a shift towards "selling" rather than "giving" weapons, but Rutte confirmed US arms supplies would continue through NATO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • Ceasefire/Negotiations: Trump expressed confidence in peace being agreed during combat operations and stated a ceasefire is not required as a condition for further talks. Macron proposed Geneva as a location for a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, while Reuters reported Hungary as a possibility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • POW Release: Trump expressed confidence in releasing over 1,000 POWs soon. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Challenges/Ambiguities: Despite the public display of unity, there remain ambiguities regarding the specifics of security guarantees, the terms of a potential peace deal, and the long-term commitment of US aid under a potential Trump administration. The cancellation of a joint statement is noteworthy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Black Sea Security: Romania's desire to expand joint Black Sea patrolling with Bulgaria and Turkey indicates continued regional efforts to bolster maritime security amidst ongoing conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Reaction to RF Actions: Ursula von der Leyen's statement on returning abducted Ukrainian children highlights international focus on Russian war crimes. The Global Times framing the conflict as an "expensive lesson for Europe" reflects a Chinese/RF narrative aimed at fostering European disunity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Putin's Diplomatic Engagements: Putin's calls with nine foreign leaders post-Alaska summit (including Trump) indicate active Russian diplomatic efforts to shape the international discourse and project an image of constructive engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

  • MLCOA 1: Sustained High-Intensity Offensive in Donetsk Oblast: RF will continue to focus their main effort on the Donetsk axis, particularly Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Konstantinovka. This will involve continued battalion-sized mechanized assaults, supported by heavy artillery, KABs, and increased FPV/Lancet drone usage to soften UA defenses. The objective remains to expand control and create conditions for further advances toward key urban centers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Indicators: Continued heavy shelling, daily ground assaults, RF reporting of marginal territorial gains, and increased reconnaissance drone activity in these areas.
  • MLCOA 2: Intensified Deep Strike Campaign: RF will maintain or increase the tempo of precision missile and mass UAV attacks across Ukraine, with a primary focus on critical civilian infrastructure, particularly energy facilities, oil refineries, and logistics hubs (e.g., Kremenchuk, Odesa). This is aimed at degrading Ukraine's economic and logistical capacity, undermining morale, and depleting UA air defense munitions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Indicators: Continued strategic bomber activity (Tu-95MS), multiple waves of Shahed drone launches, and targeting of newly identified energy or logistics nodes.
  • MLCOA 3: Information Operations to Leverage Diplomatic Ambiguity: RF will exploit any perceived ambiguities or shifts in the US/Western negotiating position (e.g., "territory exchange," "no NATO for Ukraine," "selling weapons") to sow discord within Ukraine, erode international support, and boost domestic morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Indicators: Prominent RF media coverage of Trump's statements, emphasis on potential Ukrainian concessions, and attempts to frame Western aid as weakening or conditional.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

  • MDCOA 1: Breakthrough and Encirclement in Pokrovskoe Direction: Given the reported "lack of infantry" in the Pokrovskoe direction and RF's claimed advances towards Sokil, RF forces could concentrate sufficient combat power (including reserves, potentially from Kharkiv if National Guard units are indeed redeployed) to achieve a significant operational breakthrough, threatening to cut off or encircle a substantial portion of UA forces in the area or advance rapidly towards Konstantinovka. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
    • Indicators: Large-scale, multi-echelon ground assaults, increased use of overwhelming fire support (TOS-1A, mass artillery), and successful disruption of UA C2 and logistics in the immediate area.
  • MDCOA 2: Strategic Infrastructure Paralysis via Concentrated Strikes: RF could execute a highly coordinated and overwhelming series of missile and drone strikes aimed at simultaneously incapacitating multiple critical energy, fuel, and transportation hubs across Ukraine, potentially including simultaneous attacks on power grids and railway networks, potentially in conjunction with cyber attacks. This would aim to create widespread panic and cripple UA's ability to sustain military operations and civil society. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
    • Indicators: Unusually high number of simultaneous air raid alerts across multiple regions, targeting of diverse infrastructure types (railways, power plants, fuel depots) in a single strike wave, and evidence of successful cyberattacks on critical infrastructure.
  • MDCOA 3: Diversionary Offensive from Northern Border: RF could launch a limited, yet tactically significant, ground offensive from the northern border regions (e.g., Sumy Oblast) with the intent to draw UA forces away from the eastern front, thereby creating vulnerabilities for the main Donetsk offensive. While unlikely to achieve deep penetration, even a limited thrust could strain UA reserves. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
    • Indicators: Increased RF troop concentrations and border incursions in Sumy/Chernihiv, reports of small-scale ground clashes, and significant RF fire activity (artillery, KABs) in these northern border areas.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

  • Immediate (0-24 hours): Continued high-intensity ground combat in Donetsk Oblast, particularly Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk. Risk of further widespread RF missile/UAV attacks overnight, especially targeting energy and logistics. UA air defense will remain on high alert. Decision Point: Assessment of actual impact of diplomatic talks on RF strategy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Short-Term (24-72 hours): RF will likely consolidate any recent territorial gains and prepare for follow-on assaults in Donetsk if current offensives yield results. UA will focus on reinforcing defensive lines and continuing counter-battery fire and deep strikes. Continued international diplomatic engagement on peace proposals. Decision Point: UA decision on further troop redeployments based on front-line pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Medium-Term (72 hours - 1 week): The diplomatic discourse from the Washington summit will continue to unfold, potentially influencing the intensity and focus of combat operations. RF may calibrate its offensive efforts based on perceived Western unity or division. UA will seek to leverage international support to address critical resource requirements (infantry, air defense munitions). Decision Point: Formulation of concrete security guarantees for Ukraine by international partners. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

  • PIR 1: RF Intentions Regarding Zaporizhzhia Front: (What is the true scale and intent of RF force concentration in Zaporizhzhia, and are they preparing for a large-scale breakthrough as suggested by Syrskyi?)
    • Collection Requirements: Increased ISR (SIGINT, IMINT, OSINT) on RF troop movements, equipment staging, and logistical build-up in the Zaporizhzhia sector. Analysis of RF statements on this axis.
  • PIR 2: Specifics of New RF EW System: (What are the precise capabilities, frequencies, and effective range of the new Russian EW system near Krasnohorivka?)
    • Collection Requirements: Dedicated ELINT missions, ground-based EW detection, and analysis of observed UA UAV signal degradation or communication interference.
  • PIR 3: Status of "Druzhba" Oil Pipeline and Impact: (Has the "Druzhba" oil pipeline been completely destroyed by UA forces, and what is the confirmed impact on Russian energy exports and internal supply?)
    • Collection Requirements: Satellite imagery of the pipeline in relevant areas, OSINT monitoring of energy markets and RF internal reporting, and verification from UA sources.
  • PIR 4: RF Manpower Generation Effectiveness: (What is the real impact of RF recruitment efforts, including forced contracts, on the quality and morale of frontline units?)
    • Collection Requirements: Interrogation of new RF POWs, analysis of social media sentiment within Russia, and monitoring of open-source reports on recruitment practices.
  • PIR 5: Detailed Diplomatic Outcomes and Implications: (What are the exact, unstated agreements or disagreements from the Trump-Zelenskyy-European leader meetings, and how will they influence military aid and future peace talks?)
    • Collection Requirements: In-depth analysis of official statements and unofficial leaks from all parties, as well as third-party analyses by reputable international media and think tanks.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

  • TO UA FORCES (OPERATIONAL/TACTICAL):
    • Prioritize EW Countermeasures: Immediately implement and enforce redundant and hardened communication protocols, and enhance anti-drone measures in the Kharkiv sector due to increased EW threat. Develop and deploy counter-EW capabilities targeting the new system near Krasnohorivka. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
    • Reinforce Pokrovskoe Direction: Allocate immediate infantry and specialized anti-armor reserves to the Pokrovskoe direction, particularly around Sokil, Udachne, and Pervoye Maya, to counter potential RF breakthroughs given reported infantry shortages. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
    • Strengthen Air Defense: Disperse air defense assets and maintain high readiness, especially around critical infrastructure and major urban centers, in anticipation of continued large-scale RF missile/UAV attacks. Prioritize resupply of interceptor missiles. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
    • Exploit RF C2 Weaknesses: Continue to identify and exploit observed weaknesses in RF tactical C2 and fire support coordination through precision strikes on command nodes and communication assets. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM)
    • Maintain Deep Strike Pressure: Continue targeting RF logistics and military industrial complex in depth, particularly fuel depots and manufacturing sites, to degrade RF sustainment capabilities. Verify and confirm the impact of strikes on targets like the "Druzhba" pipeline for strategic planning. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM)
  • TO UA LEADERSHIP (STRATEGIC):
    • Clarify Diplomatic Stance: Publicly clarify Ukraine's negotiating red lines, particularly regarding territorial concessions, to manage public expectations and counter RF information operations. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
    • Advocate for Expedited Aid: Leverage diplomatic engagements to push for expedited delivery of proposed military aid, especially air defense systems and aircraft, and advocate for sustained, unconditional military and financial support. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
    • Focus on Humanitarian Response: Ensure robust and timely humanitarian aid delivery and reconstruction efforts in areas affected by RF strikes to maintain civilian morale and stability. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
Previous (2025-08-19 06:46:08Z)

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