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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-08-19 00:13:51Z
6 months ago
Previous (2025-08-18 23:43:47Z)

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 190011Z AUG 25


1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

  • Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske Axis): RF forces maintain a confirmed foothold in the eastern Kanal microdistrict of Chasiv Yar, continuing battalion-sized mechanized assaults. UA units executed tactical withdrawal to prepared defensive positions west of the initial line of contact. Clashes persist near Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, Oleksandra-Kalynove, and Pleschiyivka. UA 93rd Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" successfully cleared and took control of Hruzke and Vesele near Dobropillya, capturing an RF prisoner, indicating localized UA counter-offensive success and stabilization in the Dobropillya area. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and towards Bondarne in the Kramatorsk direction. Rybar (RF source) animated maps indicate Russian advances around Chasov Yar and Katerinovka, with pushes towards Konstantinovka and along the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal, suggesting continued RF focus on consolidating and expanding territorial gains. OSUV "Dnipro" states Russians have occupied two settlements in Donetsk Oblast (unnamed). RF MoD reports Russian artillery destroyed a mortar and a UA UAV control point, likely in Donetsk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) and Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) videos show Azov Brigade successfully repelling a powerful enemy attack and preventing consolidation in Katerynivka, Toretsk direction. This contradicts previous RF claims of gains and indicates effective UA defensive action. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts new video showing drones "clearing strongholds" and covering "our assault teams" in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. RF sources (RBC-Ukraine) report explosions in occupied Donetsk, with complaints of unknown drone attacks. ASTRA (UA source) reports explosions and a subsequent fire in Donetsk, citing local residents. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue in Donetsk Oblast. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) has posted multiple photo messages that appear to be maps or operational summaries of activity in the Siversk direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts new video showing 93rd Mechanized Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" conducting clearance operations of the village of Vesele in the Dobropillya area, supported by tanks and multiple ground robotic systems equipped with machine guns. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video footage of the 85th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (OMCBR) operating on the Soledar direction, showing drone footage of a wooded area with debris and smoke from impacts, and a destroyed trench system. Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) claims RF 36th OA forces (37th OMCBR, 336th Marine Brigade) are likely to force UA to abandon Maliyivka and are advancing from Shevchenko to Yanvarske, though with limited success. STERNENKO (UA source) posts video of the 3rd SSO Regiment (POPRYVSE) burying RF personnel under collapsed buildings in the Pokrovsk direction. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UA source) posts a photo message claiming "successfully demobilized" RF personnel. Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) posts video claiming destruction of a UA 2S1 Self-Propelled Howitzer near Konstantinovka. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Predtechyne, Oleksandro-Shultyne and Bila Hora in Kramatorsk direction. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) photo message indicates UA forces are having success in several directions in Donetsk Oblast, specifically listing Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz cleared by elements of the 1st Azov Corps. This directly contradicts prior RF claims of gains and confirms UA regaining territory. ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA (RF source) posts a strategic overview map of the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya direction. Воин DV (RF source) video shows drone footage of engagements on the South-Donetsk direction by the 57th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, depicting successful strikes on RF positions, equipment, and personnel. A photo message from "Сливочный каприз" (RF source) indicates current RF claimed positions between Dobropillya and Zolotyi Kolodyaz. Colonelcassad (RF source) has provided a photo message with no caption. TASS reports that RF forces struck UA units with FAB bombs in Myrnohrad and Ivanpillia, DNR. MoD Russia video shows aerial footage of an urban area, with multiple large explosions and plumes of smoke, indicating ongoing shelling or airstrikes in Donetsk People's Republic. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows a drone strike on a Russian motorcyclist in the Kurakhove direction. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims the assault on Konstantinovka has begun. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UA source) video, captured from a thermal imaging perspective, shows what appears to be a ground vehicle or personnel moving across an open field, with an explosion occurring in the vicinity of the target. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video shows the 425th Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video showing captured Russian soldiers providing testimony confirms UA success. An Iskander-M missile strike has been reported in Sloviansk. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a photo message claiming RF forces are advancing on the Konstantinovka direction. Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) posts a video showing a BM-21 Grad MLRS firing and subsequent aerial footage of strikes on damaged buildings, claiming it is the 238th Artillery Brigade supporting the offensive. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts photo message and a map of the Druzhkivka/Konstantinovka directions. Підрозділ Shadow (UA source) video shows drone strike on RF positions, including thermal imaging confirmation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) photo message from "Mad'yar" claims Ukraine has completely destroyed the "Druzhba" oil pipeline. DeepState (UA Source) reports map has been updated. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts photo messages of the Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports a KAB-250 strike with UMPK on AFU infrastructure near Rayskoe. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows an aerial view of a damaged building, likely in a conflict zone, with an explosion targeting the structure. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video provides an aerial view of a damaged train station building and surrounding railway infrastructure in Pokrovsk. The building shows significant signs of destruction, indicating it has been subjected to heavy shelling or bombing. The damage implies potential disruption to transportation and logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  • Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovskoe Direction): UA sources report a critical "lack of infantry." RF claims a "big breakthrough" and liberation of Iskra in DNR. RF forces have reportedly broken through into Zolotyi Kolodyaz, with ongoing fighting, and advanced up to 1.5km towards Sokil from Ocheretyne, threatening a key Ukrainian GLOC. UA sources report stabilization and successful destruction of enemy elements, and Ukrainian paratroopers clearing Pokrovsk of Russian DRGs. UA forces repelled enemy near Rubizhne, Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Vesele, Vilne, Shakhove, Nykanorivka, and Sukhetske. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Poltavka, Volodymyrivka, Fedorivka, Novoekonomichne, Rodynske, Sukhetske, Promin, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Udachne, Dachne, Novoukrayinka, Lysivka, Nykanorivka and towards Filiya in the Pokrovsk direction. Main Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reports successful UA advances for the second consecutive day in Dobropillya and Pokrovsk directions, despite challenges. RF sources are consistently reporting heavy fighting and "destruction" of UA equipment/personnel near Pokrovsk. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts photos and video confirming successful UA counter-DRG operations near Pokrovsk. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video of the 425th Regiment "SKALA" showing captured Russian soldiers providing testimony on their unit movements and lack of support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports an attempted assault on Pokrovsk by RF forces utilizing motorcycles. TASS reports that an officer of the press center of the RF 'Vostok' grouping, Aleksei Yakovlev, stated their units have advanced into enemy defenses in Ivankiv, Poltavka, and Zeleny Gay. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted multiple photo messages summarizing the General Staff's report. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Pokrovsk direction as of 18 AUG 25. TASS reports that the National Guard of Ukraine is relocating some units from Kharkiv Oblast to the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. TASS reports that Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi recognized the situation as difficult along the entire contact line, especially in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) posts aerial video of military activity in Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk area. РБК-Україна reports Commander Syrskyi commenting on RF forces near Dobropillya, stating "instead of 'forward, victory' - 'encirclement, end'," suggesting effective UA defense or counter-offensive actions. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) posts thermal imaging video claiming to show RF rocket artillery striking enemy strongholds in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UA source) reports liberation of Zolotyi Kolodyaz and Petrivka in Donetsk Oblast, supported by video evidence of soldiers and captured prisoners, directly countering RF claims of gains. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Poltavka, Vilne, Nove Shakhove, Zapovidne, Novoekonomichne, Myrolubivka, Novoukrayinka, Lysivka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne and towards Volodymyrivka, Rodynske, Chervone Lymanu, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Molodetske in the Pokrovsk direction. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) provides a new General Staff update confirming that UA forces, including the 1st Azov Corps (ZSOU and NGU), have cleared the settlements of Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz in Donetsk Oblast. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA Source) reports on an RF military individual having shot a civilian in the Pokrovsk direction. MoD Russia (RF source) claims flamethrowers from the Tsentr Group wiped out a UA stronghold near Krasnoarmeysk. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports an RF military individual shot a civilian in Rodynske, Pokrovsk direction. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) posts video claiming to show "Rubicon" breaking Ukrainian defenses near Krasnoarmeysk. Филолог в засаде (RF source) posted a video requesting donations for a "night bird" (likely DJI Mavic 3T) for artillery reconnaissance on the Pokrovskoe direction. Сливочный каприз (RF source) provided a photo message of their claimed positions between Dobropillya and Kucherov Yar as of 18 Aug 25. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports intense fighting for Udachne and Pervoye Maya. TASS reports that RF forces gained high tempo advance on Donetsk front, and will soon liberate Krasnoarmeysk and Konstantinovka. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) appeals for donations for "motorized rifle units and special forces" that are "actively advancing." Multiple sources confirm a large map of Ukraine was displayed in the Oval Office during the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) and STERNENKO (UA source) post photo messages of the large map of Ukraine in the Oval Office. Rybar (RF source) posts a tactical map for the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd direction as of 18 AUG 25. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video message showing intense fighting and "holding key heights" on the Dobropillya direction. The video appears to be drone footage showing engagements between opposing forces, including vehicles being targeted and destroyed (BBM, "Baba-Yaga" drone, relay station, truck). This confirms ongoing high-intensity combat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  • Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UA reports capture of an RF prisoner from 150th Division by Azov units, and significant RF losses in Azov's areas. Mandatory evacuation of families with children in Druzhkivka suggests anticipated RF advances or increased threat. Closure of Ukrposhta branches in Konstantinovka from August 19 further indicates increasing threat to this logistics hub. Clashes reported near Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, Oleksandra-Kalynove, and Pleschiyivka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Pleschiyivka, Stepanivka, Yablunivka and Rusyn Yar in the Toretsk direction. STERNENKO (UA source) reports that Phoenix UAS tactical group is "cutting Russian logistics" in the Konstantinovka direction. Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) claims RF 4th OMCBR continues to attack towards Delievka – Aleksandro-Shulgino and attempts to break through and consolidate in Belaya Gora. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Toretsk, Scherbynivka and towards Oleksandro-Shultyne, Pleschiyivka, Rusyn Yar in thetsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  • Luhansk Oblast (Siversk Direction): RF forces report combat operations with drone-guided artillery and ATGM teams. RF MoD claims destruction of AFU stronghold in Krasny Liman direction. RF aims to advance 2 km to close a "fire bag" for AFU in Kremensky forests. Russian forces reportedly broke through Ukrainian defense lines in the Lyman district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Serebryanka, Siversk, Vyyimka, Fedorivka, Pereyizne and towards Siversk in the Siversk direction. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Kolodezi in Donetsk People's Republic (Luhansk direction). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 63rd Brigade utilizing three FPV drones to neutralize a Russian tank threatening Ukrainian positions east of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast. RF MoD confirms liberation of Kolodezi and Voronoye. Colonelcassad reports on mobile fire groups operating in Belgorod Oblast and Luhansk People's Republic. TASS reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including foreign mercenaries, suffered 4,500 personnel losses in the past week on the Luhansk People's Republic borders, with the Southern Group of Forces inflicting the most damage. TASS claims that Kyiv has struck Lisichansk, LPR, more than 10 times in the past week, resulting in civilian casualties. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Luhansk direction as of 18 AUG 25. Сливочный каприз (RF source) posts a summary of combat operations between August 14-17, 2025, which likely includes the Luhansk direction. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Fedorivka and Vyyimka in the Siversk direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) has provided a photo message of a tactical map for the Siversk direction. Mash na Donbasse reports over 1,000 residents of Kamyshnoye and Gerasimovka without power due to a severe fire in LPR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): Sustained RF artillery and FPV drone attacks on Nikopol and surrounding communities. RF claims control of all settlements at the junction of DNR and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast after liberation of Iskra. Extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Nikopol confirmed. Ballistic missile strike on outskirts of Dnipro confirmed with damage to civilian property. Overnight drone attack on Pokrovska community, Synelnykivskyi district, caused fires at agricultural enterprises. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Voronoye in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetrovsk Regional State Administration) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopolshchyna. A ballistic missile threat on Synelnykove and a high-speed target from the east on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Explosions were heard in Pavlohrad. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports destruction of a UA T-72 tank by an FPV drone in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected near Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a drone (UAV) threat to Pavlohrad. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "powerful explosions" in Pavlohrad. TASS (RF source) claims UA forces in Iskra, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, killed an elderly female civilian. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropropetrovsk Regional State Administration) reports that RF struck Pavlohrad with a missile overnight, causing a fire. Воин DV (RF source) video footage from an aerial platform with thermal imaging, focused on a wooded area on the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and DNR, targeting what appears to be personnel or equipment. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces struck Pavlohrad Repair and Mechanical Plant and Technical Equipment Plant. MoD Russia (RF source) video of servicemen from the Vostok Group of Forces describing the liberation of Iskra in Donetsk People's Republic. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) posts a UA UAV attacked a gas station in Yenakiieve, DNR. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports that UA forces inflicted a successful strike on a gas station in Yenakiieve. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports a substation hit by a "Geran" drone in Mezhove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video of a burning power substation in Mezhove, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetrovsk Regional State Administration) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol, Marhanets, and Pokrovske communities throughout the day. Photos show damaged civilian buildings. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of strike UAVs in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading towards Pavlohrad. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 1 "moped" (Shahed) heading towards Dnipro. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  • Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkivskyi District): UA Air Force alerts for high-speed targets and KAB launches. RF claims improved position near Krasny Perviy, controlling ~6 km of road to Dvorechnaya. A substantial increase (estimated 40%) in Russian EW emissions has been detected in the Kharkiv sector, primarily targeting Ukrainian reconnaissance UAVs and degrading ISR capabilities. Continued RF reconnaissance UAVs in northern and eastern Kharkiv Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Khatnye and Fyholivka in the South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 4 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes in the past day. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. РБК-Україна reports 11 casualties in Kharkiv from recent RF attack. Олег Синєгубов, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, reports 3 additional casualties, bringing total to 11. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates the 11 casualties. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration (UA source), provided multiple photo messages showing damaged civilian residential buildings. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "continuing to pound Kharkiv" with "powerful explosions." РБК-Україна reports an explosion heard in Kharkiv. Mayor Igor Terekhov confirms "Shahed" hits in Industrialnyi district. Oleg Syniehubov confirms two casualties (25-year-old male, 79-year-old female) from drone strike. Subsequent reports from Oleg Syniehubov indicate 10-year-old boy, 19-year-old girl, 46-year-old male, and 47-year-old female hospitalized. Mayor Igor Terekhov reports one fatality and five injured. Kharkiv now reports four fatalities (up from three), including a one-year-old child and a 55-year-old woman, and 17 injured (including 6 children). Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) reports 5 people are currently missing. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and РБК-УкраїНА (UA source) have released additional video footage showing the ongoing search and rescue operation. ASTRA (UA source) has released photos and a drone video showing the extensive destruction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports on the drone attack on a residential high-rise. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА reports a 16-year-old boy became the fourth victim. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports five fatalities. STERNENKO (UA source) corroborates five fatalities. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates five fatalities. Север.Реалии (UA source) reports at least four fatalities. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) reports enemy strikes on Kharkiv and 10 settlements. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports five fatalities and at least 30 injured. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) reports the number of injured has increased to 20. ASTRA (UA source) also reports 30 injured. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts video and photo messages of the aftermath. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) declares August 18 a day of mourning. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports the number of injured has increased to 20. ASTRA (UA source) reports the number of fatalities has increased to 6. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) confirms 6 fatalities. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts an informational message. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the number of fatalities has risen to 7. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates 7 fatalities. Oleg Syniehubov, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) also confirms 7 fatalities. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts video of border guards liquidating 5 enemy targets. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and Рыбарь (RF source) both post video of a military convoy with RF and US flags. ASTRA (UA source) posts video of a Russian attack on Kharkiv from the city's mayor. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video of Kharkiv mayor showing morning Shahed strikes. РБК-УкраїНА (UA source) posts video of Kharkiv mayor showing the moment of a Russian strike. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts video of Kharkiv, claiming "Tests continue. Be good!". ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing the moment of an RF strike on a residential building. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) video showing medics attempting to resuscitate a small child. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, reports an additional three people sought medical attention, bringing total to 23. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts multiple photo messages indicating effective UA drone reconnaissance by the 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade. Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) has provided a photo message warning of fire danger. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on northern Kharkiv Oblast. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 24 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes last week. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video footage of a series of impacts in Kharkiv. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports that "Khartia" drones successfully located and struck an RF camp in Kharkiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts three photo messages depicting a battle map of the Kharkiv direction. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) posts a photo message celebrating Ukrainian leadership. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts video showing civilian structures being transported by trucks at night. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a video of a formal gathering of international dignitaries, including Zelenskyy and Trump. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows drone operators of the 3rd Assault Brigade dropping munitions on RF in Kharkiv Oblast. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast is under bomb strike and threat of strike UAVs. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports RF KAB strikes on Ruska Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows 3rd Assault Brigade drone operators striking RF positions in Kharkiv Oblast while peace talks are ongoing. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast under bomb strike and UAV threat. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  • Chernihiv Oblast: UA Air Force alerts for enemy reconnaissance UAVs, high-speed targets, and threat of strike UAVs. "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on a forward Ukrainian command post in Birino area confirmed. Ballistic missile impact in Honcharivske reported. RF claims destruction of a foreign mercenary legion's base. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Krasnyy Khutir of Chernihiv region. Colonelcassad reports Kinzhal strike near Desna and Geran/Gerbera strikes near Semenivka (Chernihiv Oblast). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV threat to Brovary and Boryspil districts in Kyiv Oblast and a UAV threat to Kyiv. Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy UAVs on northern Chernihiv Oblast and in the Pryluky area. НгП раZVедка (RF source) claims "Geran" drones are "drilling" Chernihiv Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports enemy UAVs attacked Kyiv Oblast overnight, damaging a hangar in Boryspil district. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Chernihiv Oblast. MoD Russia (RF source) video claiming Geran-2 UAVs hit AFU special forces units of GUR near Zhadovo, Chernihiv region. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UA source) reports UAVs in central Chernihiv Oblast near Pryluky. Операция Z (RF source) posts video claiming Geran strikes hit GUR special forces in Chernihiv. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy strike UAV on northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. UA Air Force reports a UAV threat in Chernihiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces struck a training center in Chernihiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  • Kherson Oblast (Left Bank Dnieper): UA reports destruction of an RF ammunition depot and four vehicles on the left bank. RF claims Lancet strike destroyed US M-777 howitzer and Ukrainian Bogdana SPG on right bank. Ukrainian Navy radio intercepts confirm loss of Russian Su-30SM fighter jet southeast of Snake Island. UA forces repelled 4-6 Russian army assaults. UA source claims reconnaissance units entered "Novaya Kakhovka" on the Kherson direction and are shelling enemy defenses. Southern Ukraine Defense Forces report continued strikes on enemy deployment areas, fire positions, and rear areas in the southern operational zone. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports strikes on Khadzhibeevka and Usatove (Odesa region), specifically targeting "marine BECs" and a 330kv power substation. TASS (RF source) claims that the "Kyiv-appointed" administration of Kherson has long since left the city and is operating remotely from Mykolaiv. TASS reports that the AFU lost a Starlink satellite communication station and 17 UAV control points in the zone of responsibility of the 'Vostok' grouping in the past 24 hours. Два майора (RF source) posts thermal imaging footage claiming to show activity in Kherson at night. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) provides operational information for the Southern Defense Forces. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Kherson direction as of 18 AUG 25. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of explosions and vehicle activity in the Kherson direction. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows artillerymen of the 49th Army hitting fortifications on the right bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  • Odesa Oblast: STERNENKO reports groups of strike UAVs in the north and near Odesa Oblast. РБК-Україна reports an alert from Odesa Oblast Military Administration calling residents to shelters due to strike UAVs. STERNENKO reports Odesa is under a massive "Shahed" drone attack, with explosions heard. Николаевский Ванёк reports reduction in drone numbers near Odesa. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports continued drone threats in Velyka Balka-Nerubaiske and Radisne-Velykyi Dalnyk (Odesa Oblast). ASTRA reports a large fire in Odesa after a massive Shahed strike. Операция Z (RF source) posts multiple photo and video messages reporting "powerful strikes on enemy objects in Odesa, fires in the city." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports that RF drones struck a Nova Poshta terminal in Odesa. Дневник Десантника (RF source) claims that their strike UAVs hit "several objects" in Odesa overnight. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна (UA source) confirm an RF drone strike on a fuel and energy infrastructure object and a two-story building in the suburbs of Odesa. ASTRA reports a fire on a fuel and energy infrastructure object in Odesa Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) reports Odesa was attacked by Shaheds all night. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video of the aftermath of strikes on an alleged SOCAR oil depot in Odesa Oblast. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims Geran drones destroyed a "giant fuel terminal" of SOCAR. Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) reports 24 Shahed UAVs destroyed by Southern Defense Forces. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a map/graphic titled "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine August 17 - August 18, 2025," which likely includes Odesa. Colonelcassad also posts video of an explosion with "kurs_odessa" watermark. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video claiming a massive Shahed attack on SOCAR oil depot in Odesa Oblast. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims "Azerbaijani fuel tanks extinguished." Colonelcassad (RF source) comments that overnight strikes in Odesa targeted Nova Poshta objects and SOCAR. Два майора (RF source) posts video of significant damage to industrial or storage tanks in Odesa. Colonelcassad (RF source) also posts video showing the aftermath of attacks on SOCAR in Odesa. Операция Z (RF source) provides photos of a large fire, likely in Odesa. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows a significant fire at the SOCAR oil depot. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts photos showing a large fire at the SOCAR oil depot in Odesa. Kotsnews (RF source) posts videos confirming significant damage and fires. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) also posts video of the aftermath of the SOCAR oil depot strike. Два майора (RF source) has posted a photo message regarding Romania's desire to expand joint Black Sea patrolling with Bulgaria and Turkey. Colonelcassad (RF source) provides a summary of strikes. WarGonzo (RF source) posted videos showing the aftermath of the SOCAR strike in Odesa. STERNENKO video shows aerial footage likely from a drone, observing an area with what appear to be defensive positions or fortifications. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha reacting to the RF strike on the SOCAR oil depot. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile arrival in Dobroslav. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target on Odesa Oblast, heading northwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RF claims destruction of AFU ammunition depot. 578 RF strikes on 14 settlements over past day. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast. A 64-year-old man was wounded in a hostile attack on Polohivskyi district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Tolstoy, Komyshuvakha, Zelene Pole, Maliyivka, Myrne, Zaporizhzhke, Olhivske in the Novopavlivka direction. Colonelcassad reports VKC and missile forces conducted strikes on targets in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація reports air raid alert over. An air raid alert has been declared in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and has since been lifted. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) has re-declared an air raid alert. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of aviation weapons use. UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia district. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports the air raid alert has been lifted. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) has re-declared an air raid alert. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports ballistic missile activity towards Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target towards Zaporizhzhia. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports an explosion in Zaporizhzhia. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Zaporizhzhia is under ballistic missile attack. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports a second ballistic missile. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports a third explosion. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports repeated explosions. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports RF is attempting to strike critical infrastructure. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) corroborates RF attempts to strike critical infrastructure. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) confirms RF strikes on Zaporizhzhia, with two impacts and an increase in injured persons to four. РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborates two strikes. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the ballistic missile threat has been lifted. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports four injured. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) also reports four injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports that 6 people, two in serious condition, have been hospitalized. ASTRA (UA source) also reports 6 injured. РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborates increasing casualties. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts photos from the State Emergency Service. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports 7 injured. ASTRA (UA source) reports 17 injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) confirms 17 injured. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) also reports 17 injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) posts photos showing damage. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Syrskyi stating Russia is concentrating troops and planning a large-scale offensive. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) posts video showing firefighters and emergency personnel clearing debris. STERNENKO (UA source) posts video of significant damage. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Zelenyy Hay, Tolstoy, Oleksandrohrad, Voskresenka, Maliyivka, Vilne Pole and Temyrivka in the Novopavlivka direction. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Novoandriyivka in the Orikhiv direction. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA) reports a man rescued from debris has died. РБК-Україна (UA) corroborates the death. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA) reports air raid alert lifted. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports 3 dead and 18 injured from the morning attack. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports 23 people, injured by the enemy attack, are receiving medical assistance. РБК-Україна (UA) corroborates 23 injured. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) corroborates 23 injured. ASTRA (UA source) corroborates 23 injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) posts video showing the aftermath of the missile strike. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a video appealing for donations for drones and Starlink. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) posts photos showing the 44th Separate Artillery Brigade "Bogdana" successfully destroying enemy equipment. ASTRA (UA source) reports on an RF M113 APC with RF and US flags operating in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Два майора (RF source) posted a video claimed to be a tank strike in the Lukyanovskoe area of Zaporizhzhia. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports an increase in the number of injured persons to 27. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the number of injured has risen to 24. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) states that the Commander-in-Chief's statement about enemy intent to break through the Zaporizhzhia front and advance deep into Ukrainian territory was not new to them. Два майора (RF source) posted a drone video from the Zaporizhzhia front. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the number of injured in Zaporizhzhia increased to 30. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports 30 injured. ASTRA (UA source) reports 30 injured. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports Zaporizhzhia Oblast is a leader in drone procurement. ASTRA (UA source) reports up to 30 injured. Photos confirm significant damage to residential buildings. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports an air raid alert declared. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of ballistic weapons. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports the number of injured has increased to 33. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) declares an air raid alert. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UA source) reports a threat of ballistic weapons use. Два майора (RF source) reports on current combat activity on the Zaporizhzhia front. The air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a video appealing for donations. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  • Kupyansk Axis: Previous reports indicated a decisive shift of RF main effort with the capture of Ivanivka. RF continues strikes on settlements. UA reports successful tank sorties and drone operations against RF personnel and equipment. Commander of "Achilles" Regiment Fedorenko (UA source) reports RF plans to occupy Kupyansk by August 24. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports the first mechanized attack by RF on the left bank of Kupyansk in a long time. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Kupyansk direction as of 18 AUG 25. STERNENKO (UA source) reports that 905 drones has been delivered to the Defense Forces in the last two days. Николаевский Ванёк reports a new "singing" RF prisoner was taken under Muravka, Donetsk Oblast, identified as Vladimir Sergeevich from the 35th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. TASS reports the head of Kharkiv VGA Ganchev claims Russian forces are encircling Kupyansk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  • Sumy Oblast: РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian forces actively destroying the enemy in Sumy Oblast, pushing back Russians near Oleksiivka and Yunakivka. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of a destroyed UA M577 command post vehicle in Sumy Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing an RF truck with ammunition epically destroyed by a Ukrainian drone on the way to Sumy Oblast. TASS reports that RF forces have improved their tactical position near Yunakovka, Sumy Oblast. Операция Z (RF source) thermal imagery video claims successful destruction of UA armored vehicles by Spetsnaz "Anvar" and VDV units supporting an offensive on Sumy. РБК-Україна reports a 57-year-old woman injured by a KAB strike on Novoslobidska community, Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new UAVs on northern Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports a missile strike on Sumy. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted photo messages confirming a missile strike on an educational institution. НгП раZVедка (RF source) posts a mocking caption suggesting RF strikes or activity in Shostka. RF reconnaissance UAVs are operating near Putyvl. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Sumy. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports a series of explosions. Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 new RF UAVs detected east of Bilopillya. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports continued RF attacks on Sumy. Colonelcassad shares video footage from the 68th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th Army, Western Military District. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs. UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs. TASS (RF source) claims that Ukrainian Armed Forces command in Sumy Oblast has committed all resources to outflank RF forces in Yunakivka. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video showing two individuals in a wooded area with abandoned cars and a quad bike, claiming it depicts RF forces marauding in border villages of Kursk Oblast. Kotsnews (RF source) posts video with caption "Syrsky: Kursk - best result among all major operations," which is an RF information operation. MoD Russia (RF source) video claiming a BM-21 Grad MLRS crew eliminated a manpower cluster. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts video of a Lancet loitering munition preparation and strike. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University. РБК-Україна (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University. Alex Parker Returns (RF) claims the Sumy State University was hit by a "Flamingo missile." Два майора (RF source) posts video showing an RF FPV drone strike. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy strike UAV on northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. RF activity on the Sumy direction, with an aerial view of an exploding vehicle. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) asserts that RF forces have been defeated in Sumy Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a video of drone-guided artillery or air strikes. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) amplifies Syrsky's (misquoted) statements. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts a photo message showing activity on the Eastern Direction. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports a severe injury to an RF General in Kursk Oblast from a HIMARS strike. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video from local residents showing a visual confirmation of RF "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on Sumy State University. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAV threat. TASS (RF source) reports RF military expert Yan Gagin claiming AFU unsuccessfully counterattack. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows Uragan MLRS crews eliminating AFU armored vehicles. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows T-80BVM tanks of the Sever Group of Forces eliminating AFU hardware. RF has again attacked civilian infrastructure in Sumy. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast moving south. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of enemy UAVs on the north, east, and south of Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. An explosion was heard in Sumy. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Sumy Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  • Poltava Oblast: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Poltava Oblast moving towards Myrhorod. An enemy UAV is heading south from northern Sumy Oblast towards Poltava Oblast. РБК-Україна reports Poltava and its community are without electricity. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of enemy UAVs on the north, east, and south of Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. Groups of strike UAVs reported moving towards Kremenchuk from east and north. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in Poltava Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. Explosions reported in Lubny. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports approximately 12 "mopeds" (Shahed drones) heading towards/through Kremenchuk, with two waves. Nikolaevskiy Vanek confirms 7 "mopeds" (Shahed drones) from the first and second waves are currently heading towards Kremenchuk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  • Kyiv Oblast: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports a car explosion in Podilskyi district, Kyiv. STERNENKO (UA source) posts photos of the car explosion. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) provides multiple photo messages of a fire incident. Операция Z (RF source) posts video claiming "Ukrainian partisans" blew up a military vehicle. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports on a scheme to launder over 160 million UAH. Multiple photos and videos from KMVA show a large fire at a multi-story building. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports enemy UAVs attacked Kyiv Oblast overnight, damaging a hangar in Boryspil district. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts photo messages featuring soldiers from the 21st separate mechanized brigade. Николаевский Ванёк reports on a preliminary meeting regarding a terrorist act in Mykolaiv. The Presidential Brigade of Ukraine (UA source) posted a video showing a successful drone strike on two Russian soldiers and their motorcycle. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts a video of a Ukrainian soldier sitting amongst destroyed buildings. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports an air raid alert in Kyiv due to the takeoff of a Russian MiG-31K. РБК-Україна (UA source) confirms the air raid alert. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) confirms the air raid alert. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) confirms the MiG-31K in the air. РБК-Україна (UA source) provides a map. STERNENKO (UA source) also confirms the MiG-31K takeoff. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat of MiG-31K has been lifted. An enemy strike UAV in Kyiv Oblast heading towards Brovary. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  • Overall Frontline: RF continues employment of FPV drone swarms and Lancet loitering munitions, with a reported 20% increase in Lancet strikes. UA inflicted significant personnel losses (1010 RF personnel in the last 24h, total 276,300 since year start). UA deep strikes into RF territory include the Syzran Oil Refinery (Samara Oblast), Olya seaport (Astrakhan Oblast), the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast, and a drone attack on Azot chemical plant in Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol Krai. 61 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed by UA. Prisoner exchange of 84 servicemen conducted. TASS reports Putin congratulated the Russian Geographical Society on its 180th anniversary. Rybar (RF source) posts a photo message which is likely an analytical overview. TASS reports on cyber activity against Russian organizations. TASS also reports Mikhail Ulyanov stating that the West should provide Russia with the same reliable security guarantees as Ukraine. Операция Z reports that Ukraine fears a verbal altercation between Zelenskyy and Trump. Igor Artamonov (RF source) reports a yellow alert "air danger regime" declared for all of Lipetsk Oblast. TASS quotes a Serbian sniper, Dejan Beric, stating that sniper scouts no longer conduct foot reconnaissance behind enemy lines. ТАСС (RF source) reports a "Carpet" plan has been introduced in Penza Oblast. The "Carpet" plan in Penza Oblast has been canceled. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video message from Sumy Oblast, showing military vehicle movement. TASS reports Polyansky's statement that the settlement process in Ukraine must consider the opinion of 7 million Ukrainians who sought refuge in Russia. Trump claims Zelenskyy can end the conflict by renouncing Crimea and NATO membership. Zelenskiy / Official reports arrival in Washington for meeting with President Trump and European leaders. Rybar (RF source) has posted an analytical overview. Два майора (RF source) also posted a summary of events. TASS reports that the Tambov airport has lifted restrictions. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) and Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) report estimated general combat losses of enemy personnel (+940 in the last 24h) and equipment. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts images of new Chinese anti-ship hypersonic missiles. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy is scheduled for 20:15 Kyiv time. RF MoD claims 23 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF and annexed Crimea overnight. TASS (RF source) and ASTRA (UA source, citing Kremlin media) report that the FSB prevented a second terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge. Kotsnews (RF source) also reports on the thwarted Crimean Bridge attacks. TASS (RF source) reports 20 fatalities at an incident at the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast. Igor Artamonov (RF source) reports a red level UAV attack threat declared for Lipetsk. TASS (RF source) reports the Russian government plans to increase demand for housing. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video footage of sniper pairs of the 299th Yaroslavl Regiment. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) and Два майора (RF source) are amplifying the FSB claims. TASS reports that Zelenskyy is ready to make concessions. WarGonzo and Kotsnews confirm the FSB reports. Басурин о главном (RF source) also amplifies the FSB claim. РБК-Україна reports an explosion of a car painted to look like a military vehicle in Kyiv. Два майора (RF source) posts a video of an APC moving across open terrain. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) posts a photo message advertising a bot. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a series of tactical maps. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts a photo message promoting his channel. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a technical diagram/illustration. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» (UA source) posts a photo message of their brigade emblem. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a video appeal for donations. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Siversk direction. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Southern (Robotyne) direction. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Kherson direction. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Kharkiv direction. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video claiming FSB prevented a second terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge. Рыбарь (RF source) comments on the Crimean Bridge incident. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a photo message of the 210th Assault Regiment pilots at work. Colonelcassad (RF source) comments on the Crimean Bridge incident. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a general warning. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 88 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) also reports 88/140 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed, and 0/4 Iskander-M missiles. РБК-Україна reports RF launched 4 ballistic missiles and 140 drones overnight. ТАСС (RF source) reports the Investigative Committee has qualified Ukraine's attempt to attack the Smolensk NPP as a terrorist act. Север.Реалии (UA source) reports the General Prosecutor's Office recognized a German foundation aiding fascism victims as "undesirable." 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України (UA source) provides a video report on enemy losses. Два майора (RF source) comments on Trump's actions. Рыбарь (RF source) posts on new Chinese military hardware. ASTRA (UA source) reports RF attacked Ukraine with 4 Iskander-M missiles and 140 drones overnight. Операция Z (RF source) amplifies The Guardian's report. Fighterbomber (RF source) mentions a new episode of "333". БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts multiple photo messages with a strong nationalist and anti-Russian message. РБК-Україна reports Syrskyi stating Russia's bravado about fighting for years is unfounded. Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) posts a short overview. STERNENKO (UA source) posts a video of drones hitting enemy logistics and reconnaissance. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a general warning. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) has posted multiple photo messages about the detention of members of a criminal organization in Kyiv and Odesa. Colonelcassad (RF source) confirms 20 fatalities and 134 injured at the Ryazan gunpowder plant explosion. Kotsnews (RF source) posts "Selectivity of Kyiv and volunteers from everywhere." Басурин о главном (RF source) posts on Trump's statements. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) posts on Trump advising Zelenskyy. Igor Artamonov (RF source) reports the cancellation of the "red level" UAV attack threat in Lipetsk. MoD Russia claims an Iskander-M missile system destroyed a cluster of AFU personnel and hardware at a UAV pre-launch site. Два майора (RF source) posts video of civilian volunteers producing 3D-printed FPV anti-air drones. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims Kyiv showed its first "Flamingo" ballistic missile with a range of 3000km. TASS reports on Putin's meeting with the acting governor of Rostov Oblast. TASS (RF source) reports that a Ukrainian MP called for Zelenskyy's arrest. TASS (RF source) reports that 23 bodies have been recovered from the Ryazan gunpowder plant explosion site. TASS (RF source) reports on a call between Putin and Indian Prime Minister Modi. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukraine could continue importing gas from Azerbaijan. Operatyvnyi ZSU (UA source) reports that US Vice President Vance will be present at the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborates Vance's presence. Fighterbomber (RF source) posts a video celebrating aviation day. TASS (RF source) reports on a phone call between Putin and Tajik President Rahmon. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted a video confirming the launch of "Flamingo" cruise missile production. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) has posted a photo message regarding a convicted military individual committing murder. Два майора (RF source) has posted a photo message with the caption "🇺🇸45 минут на Зелю🇺🇦." ТАСС (RF source) has provided a video of Tu-95MS strategic bombers performing a planned flight over the Barents Sea. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/TIEDOTТЕЕТ (RF/Disinformation source) has posted a photo message with a quote in Finnish from "Baltic Voice." Операция Z (RF source) has posted a photo message claiming Trump is listening to Putin. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted a photo message regarding details of the "Elastic" plant incident. Операция Z (RF source) has posted a photo message claiming the Ukrainian Foreign Minister responded rudely to Hungary's claims. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "High-precision strikes of the RF Armed Forces on key enemy objects." WarGonzo (RF source) posted a video showing an award ceremony for soldiers of the 44th Army Corps. WarGonzo (RF source) has also posted a photo message claiming North Korean tank crews are preparing for combat in Ukraine. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) reports the evacuation of residents from Olkhivski Dachi near Stanitsia Luhanska. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs launched on Sumy Oblast, northern Kharkiv Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. STERNENKO (UA source) posts video of YOKAI GROUP (UA) shooting down a new Russian V2U UAV. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) reports operational information as of 16:00, 18 AUG 25. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) posts a photo message claiming successful UAV strike on Nikolske oil pumping station in Tambov Oblast, RF. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborate the UA strike on Nikolske oil pumping station. TASS reports Putin and Zhaparov discussed the Alaska summit. TASS reports Putin expressed condolences to Modi for floods. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) posts a video of a mobilized RF soldier calling on United Russia members to go to the front. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts photo message claiming Trump will only meet Zelenskyy. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) amplifies CNN's report. Рыбарь (RF source) posts a photo message, "Nothing personal." Операция Z (RF source) reports Deputy Commander of "Sever" Grouping General Abachev was severely wounded in Kursk Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts video showing drone pilots acting as infantry in combat. Zelenskiy / Official (UA source) posts video message with General Kellogg. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts video on Zelenskyy sharing details. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts recruitment appeal for assault and reconnaissance units. TASS posts photo message summarizing news. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts a photo message on Trump's statement. TASS reports Lula da Silva acknowledged importance of Putin's info on Alaska summit. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts on a lawsuit. Kotsnews (RF source) provided a video of Zelenskyy arriving in Washington in a t-shirt. Операция Z (RF source) amplified the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sibiga's statement. ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump's intention to end the conflict. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Zelenskyy's statement on European peace. ТАСС (RF source) posted an image described as having a formal setting but content that I am restricted from analyzing. Colonelcassad (RF source) quotes Trump's lengthy social media post. Басурин о главном (RF source) claims heat helps RF fighters evade thermal imagers. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) criticizes Zelenskyy's attire. ТАСС (RF source) again reports Zelenskyy meeting Kellogg without a suit. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) references a 2022 event. MoD Russia (RF source) confirms a Tu-95MS strategic bomber flight. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reported on an RF Z-blogger "Thirteenth" being allegedly captured. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posted the "first footage of the Flamingo cruise missile launch." Два майора (RF source) reports on Ukrainian media "fakes." Операция Z (RF source) repeats the claim that Trump is confident in resolving the war. TASS reports that Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto responded to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Sybiha. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims Zelenskyy stated it's impossible to surrender territories. Colonelcassad (RF source) also amplifies Zelenskyy's statement. TASS reports that the US Permanent Representative to NATO said security guarantees for Ukraine do not necessarily mean the deployment of US troops. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) reports on the electronic summons registry becoming operational. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts photo messages about a "national messenger MAX". WarGonzo posts a video of Governor Solodov of Kamchatka. Colonelcassad posts a photo message with the caption ""Ляля" все. Жалеть не будем." Рыбарь posts an infographic titled "Вечные враги". Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows battlefield drone footage with multiple explosions. Воин DV (RF source) video shows a drone strike on what appears to be a tank. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video shows a captured RF soldier describing his deployment. TASS (RF source) reports European ambassadors in China may boycott a military parade. Rybar (RF source) has posted scanned documents. Rybar (RF source) posts a graphic titled "Delivery Service". ASTRA (UA source) posts photo and video messages showing the launch and alleged combat use of Ukraine's "Flamingo" missile. Басурин о главном (RF source) posts a photo with the caption "Grab your stuff and run!". Kotsnews (RF source) video shows a drone's first-person view. Два майора (RF source) posts photo message claiming US Army is moving to industrial-scale 3D printing. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts an article about Zelenskyy rejecting proposal. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) posts a photo message about a new Trump statement. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) posts a video showing severely injured limbs. TASS reports Bloomberg claims US Department of Defense is sending over 4,000 Marines. TASS reports The Washington Post claims Europe still doesn't know what security guarantees for Ukraine Trump is ready to provide. Rybar (RF source) posts a graphic artwork. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims the assault on Konstantinovka has begun. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) appeals for donations. DeepState (UA source) announces that the Ministry of Defense launched a unified platform for armament manufacturers. Zelenskiy / Official (UA source) posts a video message emphasizing "reliable and lasting peace." Oleg Syniehubov (UA source) posts the same video message. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports European Commission Head, NATO Secretary General, and UK Prime Minister arrived at the White House. TASS reports the White House asked Zelenskyy to wear a suit. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts videos of European leaders arriving. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Zelenskyy met with European leaders. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (UA source) posts Zelenskyy's video message. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Axios claims Putin allegedly abandoned the demand to control all of Donetsk Oblast. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a photo message claiming one hour left until the meeting. Два майора (RF source) reports Slovakia has stopped receiving Russian oil. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the Ukrainian delegation for the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts a video message discussing the use of a captured AK rifle. Kotsnews (RF source) posts video showing European leaders arriving. ТАСС (RF source) reports Russia calls on London to abandon "risky geopolitical gambits." Операция Z (RF source) video shows the arrival of European leaders. ТАСС (RF source) states that any scenario involving NATO military contingents in Ukraine is unacceptable. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts a photo message confirming the Ukrainian delegation's arrival. Два майора (RF source) posts video of aerial support for assault operations. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts a photo message confirming the Ukrainian delegation's arrival. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the President of France has arrived. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts a video of Zelenskyy's statement. STERNENKO (UA source) photo message confirms the Ukrainian delegation's arrival. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts photos of additional European leaders. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) advertises their presence on "MAX". Два майора (RF source) posts photos from Washington. Операция Z (RF source) posts photos of the Ukrainian delegation with a large map. Два майора (RF source) reports on their source "Revenge of Good Will." Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a derogatory statement about Zelenskyy. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video of RF drone operators from Buryatia operating Mavic 3 Pro drones. ASTRA (UA source) highlights a discrepancy in RF claims about a captured "M113" APC. TASS (RF source) reports that mobilized Ukrainian military personnel are intentionally harming themselves. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts a video claiming "Zelenskyy can destroy agreements." Zelenskyy has arrived at the White House. Ukraine's delegation has arrived at the White House. Colonelcassad claims the Ukrainian delegation brought a map. Trump expressed confidence in tripartite talks. Trump stated the war will end. Trump claimed peace can be agreed during combat operations. Trump said Europe would be the "first line of defense." ASTRA reports Trump stated "Today will either be a deal or no deal. If not, support for Ukraine stops." Zelenskyy stated Ukraine is ready for elections. WarGonzo (RF source) posts a video with derogatory commentary. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows effective drone hunting operations. Олег Синєгубов (UA source) posts a photo message celebrating Ukrainian leadership. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports that Marjorie Taylor Green's husband apologized. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump stated a ceasefire is not being discussed. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video of Trump and Zelenskyy meeting. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video shows Trump stating he, Zelenskyy, and Putin all want the war to end. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump stating Ukraine will not be in NATO but will have security guarantees. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) mocks Zelenskyy's shoes. Kotsnews (RF source) uses derogatory caption. ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump stated ceasefire is not required. Два майора (RF source) reports Trump's statements. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) confirms Trump's statement on NATO. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump open to freezing conflict. ТАСС (RF source) reports Zelenskyy on arms procurement. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump on peace during combat. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reiterates Trump on no ceasefire. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump on selling, not giving, weapons. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump's exaggerated claim of $350bn aid. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump on selling weapons. Colonelcassad (RF source) mocks Zelenskyy's election statement. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump on conditional support. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump on US troops. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump on US troops. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) mocks Zelenskyy's mood. Военкор Котенок (RF source) continues Trump quotes. ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump on NATO. Два майора (RF source) reports Trump on NATO. Операция Z (RF source) also reports Trump on NATO. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump on NATO paying for US weapons. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump on NATO defending Ukraine. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Zelenskyy on strong army. ASTRA (UA source) reports on RF murder suspect gone to war zone. Два майора (RF source) photo message showing European leaders waiting. ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump will call Putin. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump on NATO helping Ukraine. ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump on Europe security guarantees. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump on liking both Ukrainians and Russians. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump on calling Putin. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reiterates Trump on peace. Новости Москвы (RF source) reports Trump on Ukraine not in NATO. Colonelcassad (RF source) video shows journalist questioning Zelenskyy's attire. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump's ambiguity. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump on Putin's call. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video of Trump speaking. ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump on calling Putin. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump on liking Ukrainians and Russians. Два майора (RF source) reports Trump and Zelenskyy gone to closed talks. ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump on liking Ukrainians and Russians. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump on Europe security. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump on Putin's call and tripartite talks. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) confirms journalists out. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) confirms closed meeting. ТАСС (RF source) photo message summarizes Trump statements. РБК-Україна (UA source) video of press leaving. Colonelcassad (RF source) photo message summarizes Trump statements. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) mocks European leaders waiting. Два майора (RF source) video shows Zaporizhzhia front activity. Военкор Котенок (RF source) confirms open meeting ended. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) summarizes Trump statements. Басурин о главном (RF source) photo message summarizes Trump statements. Операция Z (RF source) reports Europe still unaware. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) photo message mocking Zelenskyy's expression. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) video on "classic" strikes. Colonelcassad (RF source) video of full Oval Office meeting. ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump praised Zelenskyy's suit. DeepState (UA source) reports public part of talks ended. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) video of Trump stating Ukraine will not be in NATO. Два майора (RF source) mocking Zelenskyy's reception. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UA source) photo message on RF propaganda. TASS (RF source) reports Richard Black stated he hopes Moscow and Washington can become partners. TASS reports Dmitry Polyansky states Western countries are increasingly reluctant. TASS reports a massive Starlink outage. A joint statement after the closed Trump-Zelenskyy talks has been cancelled. РБК-Україна (UA source) and Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) confirm Trump and Zelenskyy completed their one-on-one meeting and proceeded to a larger meeting. STERNENKO (UA source) confirms the one-hour duration. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts photo message of the start of the joint meeting. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts photo message confirming the start of the joint meeting. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) and Два майора (RF source) post photo messages with derogatory captions. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump stating they are working to stop the killings. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump expressing confidence in a good call with Putin. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump stating he discussed many topics with Zelenskyy. ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump's belief in peace based on the Alaska summit. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump stating Putin agreed to security guarantees for Ukraine. РБК-Україна (UA source) and Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) report Trump's statement about Putin agreeing to security guarantees and the need to discuss territory exchange based on current front lines. ТАСС (RF source) confirms Trump's statement on territory exchange. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows Trump discussing a trilateral meeting to end the war. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump optimistic about an agreement. ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump doesn't believe in the threat of further RF aggression. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump's statement about a trilateral meeting. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump's optimism for an agreement. ТАСС (RF source) reports Zelenskyy discussed security guarantees. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Zelenskyy stating they will discuss territorial issues. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Zelenskyy confirming discussion of sensitive territorial questions. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump's confidence in reaching an agreement. ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump's confidence in a trilateral meeting. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump stating a thousand prisoners of war will be released immediately. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Zelenskyy announced discussions on security guarantees. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows Trump discussing Putin's agreement on security guarantees. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts video of Trump commenting on Merz's tan. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump's confidence in reaching all agreements today. Kotsnews (RF source) notes no "breakthrough" yet. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Zelenskyy on discussing sensitive territorial issues. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Zelenskyy on humanitarian issues. Операция Z (RF source) posts video of Trump saying it's "sad to look at the map of Ukraine now." Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump agreed to Zelenskyy's proposal. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump's confidence. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Merz's desire for a ceasefire. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of Trump discussing territory exchange. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts video of Zelenskyy laughing. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump's statement to Merz. ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump stated he ended six wars. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Merz cannot imagine a next meeting without a ceasefire. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump believes RF will no longer attack Ukraine. Рыбарь (RF source) posts summary of August 18. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine has released operational information as of 22:00, 18 AUG 25. Premier of Italy Giorgia Meloni states security talks will start with a proposal similar to NATO Article 5. Keir Starmer (UK PM) calls for reliable security guarantees. Trump states that within a week or two, it will be clear if peace can be achieved. Trump expresses confidence in releasing over a thousand POWs soon. RF MoD has published its #DailyFigure graphic. Macron proposes a four-way meeting. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video of Trump stating Putin wants a deal for him. Два майора (RF source) is conducting a fundraiser for "Frontline armor". КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UA source) posts photo message "Damn clouds". Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports 8 new "mopeds" (Shahed drones) near Dobropillya. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) photo message from "Mad'yar" claims Ukraine has completely destroyed the "Druzhba" oil pipeline. ТАСС (RF source) reports Russian stock market slowed decline. Підрозділ Shadow (UA source) video shows successful drone strike on RF positions. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows 3rd Assault Brigade drone operators striking RF positions. РБК-Україна (UA source) photo message reports Trump and Zelenskyy discussed tripartite meeting first. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump wants to call Putin immediately. Два майора (RF source) video reports no final press conference. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reiterates Trump's desire to call Putin. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAV groups in Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) photo message with a political/propaganda theme. Операция Z (RF source) reports Trump wants to call Putin immediately. РБК-Україна (UA source) photo message claims Defense Forces stopped work of "Druzhba" oil pipeline. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump wants to call Putin while Zelenskyy and European leaders are in White House. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UA source) reports "Ghosts" likely disabled "Around Noise". ASTRA (UA source) photo message of Trump and Zelenskyy. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump and Zelenskyy discussed tripartite meeting first. STERNENKO (UA source) post: "Trump: I'll throw money at the Russos". Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Zaporizhzhia. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts photos from the open part of Trump's multilateral meeting. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump wants to call Putin immediately. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts map of Druzhkivka/Konstantinovka directions. Рыбарь (RF source) posts chronological summary. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) states Putin is the last person who wants the war to end. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports overall drone situation. Операция Z (RF source) posts video of Finnish President stating they found a solution. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast under bomb strike. Kotsnews (RF source) posts on aiding family. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video showing Trump and Zelenskyy meeting. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Zelenskyy will give Fox News interview. РБК-Україна (UA source) photo of Trump and Zelenskyy. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video of Zelenskyy Fox News interview. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) photo message claiming "no too difficult questions". Takeoff of 2x Tu-95MS strategic bombers, indicating potential for new missile launches. RF sources confirm Trump's phone call with Putin and the initiation of preparation for a tripartite meeting. TASS reports Trump, European leaders, and Zelenskyy will hold another virtual meeting on Ukraine after the White House talks, as stated by NATO Secretary General Rutte. Zelenskyy confirmed the FT information regarding an arms deal with the US, and stated that Ukraine proposed to the US to purchase weapons worth $90 billion, including aircraft and air defense systems. Zelenskyy stated he believes they should meet with Putin unconditionally, but the question of territories will be left between him and Putin. Zelenskyy asserts security guarantees for Ukraine are planned to be formulated within 7-10 days. Macron stated EU leaders discussed with Trump strengthening sanctions against Russia if Moscow refuses to end the Ukrainian conflict, and that the West hopes for a trilateral meeting between Russia, USA, and Ukraine soon. Zelenskyy commented on the possibility of a foreign contingent in Ukraine. RF source (Операция Z, referencing Russkaya Vesna) reports Zelenskyy will not insist on a ceasefire as a condition for further negotiations with Russia. Finnish President Stubb states Putin's commitments cause uncertainty and explained why talks with Trump lasted so long. NATO Secretary General Rutte stated there is an irreversible path for Ukraine into NATO, but membership is not currently being discussed. Rutte also stated that arms supplies from the US to Ukraine will continue through NATO countries. Rutte stated the question of Ukrainian territorial concessions was not discussed at the White House meeting. Dmitriev (RF source) called today's discussion on the settlement in Ukraine an important day in diplomacy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  • Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

    • No new significant weather or environmental factors beyond previously noted challenging terrain (mud-covered vehicles), localized forest fires, and strong winds affecting drone operations. The large industrial fires in Syzran and the explosion at the Ryazan gunpowder workshop, and the attack on the Azot chemical plant will generate significant smoke and potential environmental contamination, impacting local air quality and visibility. RF KAB strike on Novoslobidska community, Sumy Oblast, around 22:00, injured a 57-year-old woman, indicating continued localized environmental impact from RF air strikes. The missile strike on Sumy and damage to an educational institution contributes to localized environmental impact. The RF strikes on Odesa targeting a Nova Poshta terminal (logistics/civilian) and a 330kv power substation in Usatove (critical infrastructure) will result in significant localized damage, fire, and potential power outages. The destruction visible in photos from Kharkiv Regional Military Administration confirms significant environmental damage in residential areas. Igor Artamonov (RF source) reports a "red level" UAV attack threat declared for the city of Lipetsk and several municipal districts, indicating direct environmental impact from active air defense operations and potential debris fall. This red level threat has since been canceled. TASS (RF source) reports temporary restrictions on flights at Tambov and Penza airports. The "Carpet" plan in Penza Oblast was activated and subsequently cancelled. Renewed Shahed strikes on Kharkiv have caused a fire in a residential building with risk of collapse, increasing humanitarian and environmental impact. The confirmed fatalities (seven) and 23 injured in Kharkiv due to RF drone strikes represents a severe humanitarian impact and will exacerbate environmental concerns due to widespread debris and damaged infrastructure. The missile strike on an educational institution in Sumy further contributes to public anger. Igor Artamonov reports the cancellation of the "yellow level" air danger alert for Lipetsk Oblast. The missile strike on Pavlohrad will cause localized damage and potential environmental contamination. The confirmed 24 fatalities at the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast indicate a severe environmental impact from the UA deep strike, including potential chemical contamination and significant debris. The RF drone strike on a fuel and energy infrastructure object in Odesa suburbs will cause significant localized environmental damage due to fire and potential spills. The explosion of a car in Kyiv, whether accidental or intentional, will contribute to localized environmental impact. The car explosion in Kyiv will cause localized environmental impact. Ballistic missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia will cause localized damage and potential environmental contamination. The impacts in Zaporizhzhia, with two confirmed strikes, indicate localized environmental damage. The severe damage to civilian residential buildings in Kharkiv, including the confirmed fatalities and injured, underscores a catastrophic humanitarian and environmental impact. The confirmed 24 fatalities at the Ryazan gunpowder plant explosion underscore the significant environmental damage from the UA deep strike. The significant fire at the SOCAR oil depot in Odesa will cause localized air pollution and potential water contamination. The reported fire in Olkhivski Dachi near Stanitsia Luhanska from burning fields indicates immediate environmental impact and civilian displacement. The reported heat helping RF forces evade UA thermal imagers on the Zaporizhzhia front indicates a localized environmental factor exploited by the enemy. The severe fire in Kamyshnoye and Gerasimovka (LPR) causing power outages indicates continued environmental impact and disruption of civilian services due to conflict. The video from МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники showing severe combat injuries highlights the direct human and environmental impact of combat. Further reports of fire and smoke in a forest area in Russia-occupied Ukraine suggest continued environmental damage. The report of Poltava and its community being without electricity confirms immediate environmental/infrastructure impact. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UA source) photo message "Damn clouds" could indicate weather conditions affecting drone operations. A threat of ballistic weapons from the south in areas where air raid alerts have been declared. Ballistic missile arrival in Dobroslav. A high-speed target on Odesa Oblast, heading northwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

    • Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske Axis): RF forces (elements of 98th VDV Division) maintain foothold in eastern Kanal microdistrict, conducting battalion-sized mechanized assaults. UA units executed tactical withdrawal to prepared defensive positions west of the initial line of contact. Clashes persist near Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, Oleksandra-Kalynove, and Pleschiyivka. UA 93rd Brigade conducting clearance operations in Hruzke and Vesele (Dobropillya area) with tank and robotic support. RF 85th OMCBR operating in Soledar direction. RF 36th OA forces (37th OMCBR, 336th Marine Brigade) pressing towards Maliyivka, Shevchenko, and Yanvarske. UA Azov Brigade actively repelling RF attacks in Katerynivka, Toretsk direction. RF striking Myrnohrad and Ivanpillia with FAB bombs. RF MoD video confirms aerial strikes on urban areas in Donetsk People's Republic. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows a drone strike on an RF motorcyclist in Kurakhove direction. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims the assault on Konstantinovka has begun. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UA source) video indicates UA targeting of RF ground elements with precision strikes. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" successfully conducted an offensive operation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video showing captured Russian soldiers indicates successful UA ground operations and intelligence gathering. An Iskander-M strike on Sloviansk has been reported. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts photo message claiming RF forces are advancing on Konstantinovka direction. Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) video confirms Grad MLRS fire and subsequent strikes from RF forces. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts map of the Druzhkivka/Konstantinovka directions. Підрозділ Shadow (UA source) video shows successful drone strike on RF positions. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows damaged building and explosion, indicating ongoing military engagement. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video confirming ongoing intense fighting and holding of key heights in Dobropillya direction. The video confirms active combat operations with drone footage showing targeted vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovskoe Direction): RF claims "big breakthrough" and liberation of Iskra. RF advanced up to 1.5km towards Sokil from Ocheretyne. UA forces cleared Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz (1st Azov Corps). UA forces repelled enemy near Rubizhne, Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Vesele, Vilne, Shakhove, Nykanorivka, and Sukhetske. UA Commander Syrskyi reports successful UA advances in Dobropillya and Pokrovsk directions. TASS reports RF 'Vostok' grouping advanced into Ivankiv, Poltavka, and Zeleny Gay. TASS reports Ukrainian National Guard relocating units from Kharkiv to Pokrovsk direction. RF Tsentr Group flamethrower units reportedly active near Krasnoarmeysk. RF artillery reconnaissance seeking "night bird" drones. RF claiming positions between Dobropillya and Kucherov Yar. Intense fighting reported for Udachne and Pervoye Maya. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) is collecting funds for "motorized rifle units and special forces" that are "actively advancing." A large map of Ukraine was observed in the Oval Office during the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. Rybar (RF source) posts a tactical map for the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd direction as of 18 AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Luhansk Oblast (Siversk Direction): RF forces broke through UA defense lines in Lyman district (RF claim). General Staff reports clashes near Hryhorivka, Serebryanka, Vyyimka, Fedorivka, Pereyizne and towards Siversk. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Kolodezi and Voronoye. UA 63rd Brigade utilized FPV drones to neutralize RF tank east of Lyman. Fire in Kamyshnoye and Gerasimovka (LPR) causes power outages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: RF artillery and FPV drone attacks on Nikopol. RF claims "liberation" of Voronoye. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected near Pavlohrad. RF struck Pavlohrad with missile overnight. Serhiy Lysak reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol, Marhanets, and Pokrovske communities. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of strike UAVs in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading towards Pavlohrad. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports one "moped" (Shahed drone) heading towards/through Dnipro. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Kharkiv Oblast: RF claims improved position near Krasny Perviy. Increased RF EW emissions (40%) detected. Continued RF reconnaissance UAVs. General Staff reports clashes near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Khatnye and Fyholivka. UA border guards liquidated 5 enemy targets including a tank. UA 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade pilots conducting effective drone reconnaissance for artillery and strike drones deep in enemy rear. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video showing serial impacts in Kharkiv. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video confirms UA drone strikes on an RF camp in Kharkiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts battle maps of the Kharkiv direction. Олег Синєгубов (UA source) posts a photo message celebrating Ukrainian leadership. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a video of civilian structures being transported by trucks at night, which may indicate logistical movement. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video shows a formal gathering of international dignitaries, including Zelenskyy, relevant to Kharkiv's strategic importance. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows drone operators of the 3rd Assault Brigade dropping munitions on RF in Kharkiv Oblast. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast under bomb strike and threat of strike UAVs. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports RF KAB strikes on Ruska Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows 3rd Assault Brigade drone operators striking RF positions in Kharkiv Oblast while peace talks are ongoing. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast under bomb strike and UAV threat. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Kherson Oblast: UA reports destruction of RF ammunition depot and four vehicles on left bank. RF claims Lancet strike destroyed UA M-777 and Bogdana SPG on right bank. UA forces repelled 4-6 RF assaults. Colonelcassad reports RF operations on the Kherson direction. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows artillerymen of the 49th Army hitting fortifications on the right bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Odesa Oblast: RF continues mass "Shahed" drone attacks, targeting Nova Poshta terminal and SOCAR oil depot. UA Southern Defense Forces destroyed 24 Shahed UAVs. Romania expressing desire to expand joint Black Sea patrolling with Bulgaria and Turkey. WarGonzo videos confirm significant damage to SOCAR oil depot. STERNENKO video shows reconnaissance/surveillance mission over what appears to be defensive positions or fortifications. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile arrival in Dobroslav. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target on Odesa Oblast, heading northwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RF conducting 578 strikes on 14 settlements. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ballistic missile attacks on Zaporizhzhia city causing casualties. UA reports RF concentrating troops for a large-scale offensive in Zaporizhzhia. RF 7th Airborne Division reportedly needs donations for drones and Starlink, suggesting sustainment issues in this area. UA 44th Separate Artillery Brigade "Bogdana" reportedly successfully destroying enemy equipment. RF is operating a captured US M113 APC with RF and US flags in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration confirms working preemptively against RF breakthrough intentions. RF drone footage from Zaporizhzhia front shows drone with munition, an aerial view of a trench with activity. Zaporizhzhia Oblast is a leader in drone procurement among all Ukrainian regions. Damage assessment in Zaporizhzhia indicates 11 multi-story buildings, 10 private houses, and non-residential buildings damaged or destroyed. An air raid alert has been declared for Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to ballistic missile threat. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports 33 injured in Zaporizhzhia. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) declares an air raid alert. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UA source) reports a threat of ballistic weapons use. Два майора (RF source) reports on current combat activity on the Zaporizhzhia front. The air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a video appealing for donations. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Kupyansk Axis: Previous reports indicated a decisive shift of RF main effort with the capture of Ivanivka. RF continues strikes on settlements. UA reports successful tank sorties and drone operations against RF personnel and equipment. Commander of "Achilles" Regiment Fedorenko (UA source) reports RF plans to occupy Kupyansk by August 24. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports the first mechanized attack by RF on the left bank of Kupyansk in a long time. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Kupyansk direction as of 18 AUG 25. STERNENKO (UA source) reports that 905 drones has been delivered to the Defense Forces in the last two days. Николаевский Ванёк reports a new "singing" RF prisoner was taken under Muravka, Donetsk Oblast. TASS reports the head of Kharkiv VGA Ganchev claims Russian forces are encircling Kupyansk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Sumy Oblast: РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian forces actively destroying the enemy in Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of a destroyed UA M577 command post vehicle. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing an RF truck with ammunition epically destroyed. TASS reports that RF forces have improved their tactical position near Yunakovka. Операция Z (RF source) thermal imagery video claims successful destruction of UA armored vehicles. РБК-Україна reports a 57-year-old woman injured by a KAB strike. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new UAVs on northern Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports a missile strike on Sumy. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted photo messages confirming a missile strike. НгП раZVедка (RF source) posts a mocking caption suggesting RF strikes. RF reconnaissance UAVs are operating near Putyvl. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Sumy. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports a series of explosions. Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 new RF UAVs detected. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports continued RF attacks on Sumy. Colonelcassad shares video footage from the 68th Motorized Rifle Division. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs. UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs. TASS (RF source) claims that Ukrainian Armed Forces command in Sumy Oblast has committed all resources. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video showing two individuals in a wooded area. Kotsnews (RF source) posts video with caption "Syrsky: Kursk - best result". MoD Russia (RF source) video claiming a BM-21 Grad MLRS crew eliminated a manpower cluster. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts video of a Lancet loitering munition preparation and strike. Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University. РБК-Україна (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University. Alex Parker Returns (RF) claims the Sumy State University was hit by a "Flamingo missile". Два майора (RF source) posts video showing an RF FPV drone strike. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy strike UAV on northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. RF activity on the Sumy direction, with an aerial view of an exploding vehicle. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) asserts that RF forces have been defeated. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a video of drone-guided artillery or air strikes. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) amplifies Syrsky's (misquoted) statements. ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts a photo message showing activity on the Eastern Direction. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports a severe injury to an RF General in Kursk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video from local residents showing a visual confirmation of RF "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAV threat. TASS (RF source) reports RF military expert Yan Gagin claiming AFU unsuccessfully counterattack. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows Uragan MLRS crews eliminating AFU armored vehicles. MoD Russia (RF source) video shows T-80BVM tanks of the Sever Group of Forces eliminating AFU hardware. RF has again attacked civilian infrastructure in Sumy. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast moving south. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of enemy UAVs on the north, east, and south of Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. An explosion was heard in Sumy. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in the northern part of Sumy Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Poltava Oblast: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Poltava Oblast moving towards Myrhorod. An enemy UAV is heading south from northern Sumy Oblast towards Poltava Oblast. РБК-Україна reports Poltava and its community are without electricity. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of enemy UAVs on the north, east, and south of Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. Groups of strike UAVs reported moving towards Kremenchuk from east and north. Groups of enemy strike UAVs in Poltava Oblast, primarily heading towards Kremenchuk. Explosions reported in Lubny. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports approximately 12 "mopeds" (Shahed drones) heading towards/through Kremenchuk, with two waves. Nikolaevskiy Vanek confirms 7 "mopeds" (Shahed drones) from the first and second waves are currently heading towards Kremenchuk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Kyiv Oblast: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports a car explosion in Podilskyi district, Kyiv. STERNENKO (UA source) posts photos of the car explosion. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) provides multiple photo messages of a fire incident. Операция Z (RF source) posts video claiming "Ukrainian partisans" blew up a military vehicle. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports on a scheme to launder over 160 million UAH. Multiple photos and videos from KMVA show a large fire. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports enemy UAVs attacked Kyiv Oblast overnight, damaging a hangar in Boryspil district. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts photo messages featuring soldiers from the 21st separate mechanized brigade. Николаевский Ванёк reports on a preliminary meeting regarding a terrorist act in Mykolaiv. The Presidential Brigade of Ukraine (UA source) posted a video showing a successful drone strike on two Russian soldiers and their motorcycle. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts a video of a Ukrainian soldier sitting amongst destroyed buildings. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports an air raid alert in Kyiv due to the takeoff of a Russian MiG-31K. РБК-Україна (UA source) confirms the air raid alert. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) confirms the air raid alert. Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) confirms the MiG-31K in the air. РБК-Україна (UA source) provides a map. STERNENKO (UA source) also confirms the MiG-31K takeoff. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat of MiG-31K has been lifted. An enemy strike UAV in Kyiv Oblast heading towards Brovary. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Strategic Air Activity: Takeoff of 2x RF Tu-95MS strategic bombers confirmed. These have completed pre-launch maneuvers near Engels, indicating imminent missile launches. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Probable launches of cruise missiles by strategic bombers confirmed by UA Air Force. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAV Movement: Multiple groups of RF strike UAVs reported across northeastern Ukraine (Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, northern Dnipropetrovsk, northern Zaporizhzhia), predominantly heading towards Kremenchuk. A separate UAV group is heading towards Brovary in Kyiv Oblast. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports approximately 17 "mopeds" heading towards/through Kremenchuk, confirming the third wave. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 1 "moped" heading towards/through Dnipro. A UAV is also reported heading to Zaporizhzhia from the north. This suggests a coordinated large-scale drone attack targeting central Ukraine, possibly energy or logistics infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Diplomatic Control Measures: Negotiations between Trump, Zelenskyy, and European leaders are ongoing in the White House. RF sources confirm Trump's phone call with Putin and the initiation of preparation for a tripartite meeting (US-RF-UA) to discuss the conflict. Trump has publicly outlined his conditions for peace, including no NATO membership for Ukraine, the concept of selling rather than giving weapons, and discussing territory exchange based on current front lines. Zelenskyy has reaffirmed Ukraine's stance against territorial concessions and for peace based on a strong security system. Zelenskyy has also stated he wants to meet Putin without preconditions to discuss territorial issues bilaterally. NATO Secretary General Rutte stated that a virtual meeting of the "coalition of the willing" will take place on August 19. Rutte also confirmed that US arms supplies to Ukraine will continue through NATO countries, and that the question of territorial concessions was not discussed at the White House meeting. Macron confirmed discussions on strengthening sanctions against Russia if the conflict does not end. Macron stated that territory exchange was not discussed. Rutte clarified that deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine was not discussed. Rutte remains unclear on the seriousness of Trump administration's security guarantee promises. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

  • Capabilities:
    • Ground Forces: RF maintains capability for battalion-sized mechanized assaults, particularly by airborne (VDV) and motorized rifle brigades, despite recent setbacks. They continue to employ tanks and BMPs in offensive operations. Evidence of continued RF 36th OA (37th OMCBR, 336th Marine Brigade) and 85th OMCBR operations. Colonelcassad's video confirms ongoing high-intensity combat in the Dobropillya direction, targeting vehicles and infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Anvar" Detachment operating in Sumy border region, using drones for targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Air Support: RF tactical aviation continues to employ KAB-series glide bombs extensively in Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The confirmed takeoff of 2x Tu-95MS strategic bombers and their pre-launch maneuvers signifies continued strategic air strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Missile and UAV Strikes: RF continues to conduct mass "Shahed" drone attacks and ballistic missile strikes (Iskander-M), targeting critical infrastructure (oil depots, substations), military objectives (command posts, UAV launch sites), and civilian areas. Reports indicate a significant number of UAVs (140) launched overnight, with 88 intercepted by UA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF claims of shooting down 23 UA UAVs over RF and annexed Crimea overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The new large-scale drone movement towards Kremenchuk, Kyiv, Brovary, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia indicates a sustained and coordinated mass strike capability. Ballistic missile threat on Odesa Oblast reported. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Artillery & MLRS: RF continues widespread artillery and MLRS fire, including Grad MLRS. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad photo message confirms 52nd Artillery Brigade VDV using Lancet drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • EW Capabilities: Increased EW emissions detected in Kharkiv Oblast (40% increase), primarily targeting UA reconnaissance UAVs. A new, significant EW system is active near Krasnohorivka. This indicates an escalating RF effort to blind UA ISR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Drone Warfare: RF heavily relies on FPV drone swarms and Lancet loitering munitions, with a reported 20% increase in Lancet strikes. They are actively seeking "night bird" drones for artillery reconnaissance. Civilian volunteers are producing 3D-printed FPV anti-air drones for RF, indicating efforts to counter UA drone superiority. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Naval Assets: Russian heavy nuclear-powered missile cruiser "Admiral Nakhimov" (Project 11442M) has commenced sea trials in Severodvinsk. While not directly involved in Ukraine operations, this represents a significant naval modernization and projection of long-term Russian military power. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Intentions:
    • Offensive Operations: RF intends to continue localized offensive operations, particularly along the Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske and Pokrovsk directions, aiming to consolidate existing gains and potentially capture key logistics hubs like Konstantinovka and Krasnoarmeysk. RF aims to occupy Kupyansk by August 24. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF forces appear to be intensifying efforts on the Sumy axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Deep Strikes: RF intends to continue deep strikes against Ukrainian military, energy, and logistical infrastructure, and civilian areas, likely to degrade UA capabilities and civilian morale. The current mass drone movement indicates a renewed emphasis on this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Targeting of the Pokrovsk railway station indicates intent to disrupt UA logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Information Warfare: RF continues robust information operations to demoralize UA forces, sow discord among allies, discredit UA leadership, and control the narrative around peace talks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Claims of preventing Crimean Bridge attacks and using derogatory language towards Zelenskyy are prominent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF information operations also attempt to manipulate the narrative around the US-Ukraine diplomatic meetings, suggesting Trump understands Zelenskyy's regime doesn't guarantee peace and is not in the interests of RF, US, or Europe. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF continues to push the narrative that Ukraine will not accept peace agreements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports on investigation into Crocus City Hall attack, likely to divert attention and reinforce narrative of external threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports on responsibility for not notifying about second citizenship, indicating internal control efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Counter-UAS: RF is intensifying efforts to counter UA UAVs through EW and dedicated anti-drone FPV units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Diplomatic Pressure: RF intends to use direct communication channels (Trump-Putin call) to bypass broader international consensus and push for a peace settlement on its terms, potentially leveraging Trump's perceived flexibility on territorial issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Courses of Action (COA):
    • COA 1 (Main Effort - Donetsk): RF forces will continue to press mechanized assaults on the Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske and Pokrovsk directions, aiming for incremental territorial gains to create favorable conditions for future negotiations. They will likely push to fully secure Chasiv Yar and advance towards Konstantinovka/Krasnoarmeysk, possibly using damaged infrastructure like the Pokrovsk railway station for propaganda or as a target for further disruption. The video from Colonelcassad showing active engagements in Dobropillya direction reinforces this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • COA 2 (Sustained Deep Strikes & Air Campaign): RF will maintain high tempo of KAB, missile, and drone strikes against UA rear areas, supply lines, and critical infrastructure across all operational zones, specifically targeting areas in Kharkiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, and now notably Kremenchuk/Kyiv/Dnipro. The Tu-95MS takeoff and confirmed pre-launch maneuvers signal imminent cruise missile strikes. Expect ballistic missile threats from the south. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports confirm multiple Shaheds and one heading towards Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • COA 3 (Info-Ops & Diplomatic Maneuvers): RF will intensify information operations, leveraging diplomatic engagements to push for a settlement favorable to Russia, particularly emphasizing territorial concessions and attempting to influence Western aid decisions. They will continue to discredit Ukrainian leadership and amplify any perceived divisions or weaknesses in the Western alliance. They will exploit any ambiguities from the Washington summit, especially regarding Trump's statements on NATO and territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • COA 4 (Northern Border Fixing Operations): RF will sustain probing attacks and drone/artillery activity along the Sumy border, aiming to fix UA forces and prevent their redeployment to other critical sectors. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

  • Increased Use of Ground Robotics: UA 93rd Brigade utilizing ground robotic systems with machine guns in clearance operations, indicating increased automation in infantry support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RF Motorcycle Assaults: RF forces attempted an assault on Pokrovsk utilizing motorcycles, indicating an adaptation for rapid, light infiltration, though unsuccessful. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Focus on EW Degradation: The significant increase in RF EW emissions in Kharkiv and the confirmed new EW system near Krasnohorivka indicate a concerted effort to counter UA's ISR advantage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RF Re-flagging Captured Equipment: Confirmed operation of a captured US M113 APC with RF and US flags in Zaporizhzhia, a clear deception tactic for propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UA Flamingo Missile Launch: UA confirms the launch of "Flamingo" cruise missile production and alleged combat use against RF targets, representing a significant long-range strike capability development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UA Drone Pilots as Infantry: Reports of UA drone pilots acting as infantry in combat suggest adaptive tactics and potential infantry shortages, but also a multi-skilled force. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • New RF UAV Type: YOKAI GROUP (UA) shot down a new Russian V2U UAV with distinctive Japanese Hinomaru roundels, indicating a new, potentially foreign-sourced, RF drone type entering service. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • FSB Bio-weapon Information Release: FSB publishing documents regarding Japanese biological weapons development against the USSR. This is a historical information operation, likely timed to influence current narratives by implicitly linking Ukraine to biological threats or generating a historical threat perception. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Trump's Call to Putin during Summit: The reported phone call between Trump and Putin during the Washington summit signifies an unconventional and direct diplomatic channel, which could bypass or complicate traditional multi-lateral negotiations. RF sources confirm Trump-Putin call and initiation of preparation for a tripartite meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UA Strategic Procurement Proposal: Ukraine has reportedly proposed a $100 billion deal to purchase American weapons for security guarantees, with Europe financing part of the purchases. Ukraine has refined this, stating they proposed purchasing $90 billion in weapons, including aircraft and air defense systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This represents a potential shift in funding models for military aid.
  • RF Use of "Anvar" Detachment: Video confirms "Anvar" detachment operating in Sumy border region, actively engaging UA forces with drone-guided strikes. This indicates a dedicated unit focused on border and counter-infiltration operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

  • RF:
    • Ammunition & Fuel: UA deep strikes on RF oil refineries (Syzran), seaports (Olya), and gunpowder workshops ("Elastic" in Ryazan, Azot chemical plant) aim to degrade RF logistics and ammunition production. The Ryazan plant explosion caused 24 fatalities, confirming significant impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The claimed complete destruction of the "Druzhba" oil pipeline (UA claim) would be a significant blow to RF energy export revenue if independently verified. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Slovakia stopping Russian oil via Druzhba pipeline further impacts RF energy revenue. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Drone Procurement: RF is appealing for donations for drones and Starlink for units like the 7th Airborne Division in Zaporizhzhia, indicating ongoing sustainment needs and reliance on non-state procurement for certain equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Civilian volunteers are 3D-printing anti-air FPV drones, suggesting a distributed, rapid prototyping approach to counter-UAS. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Personnel: Reports of RF mobilized personnel intentionally harming themselves to avoid combat, if accurate, indicate potential morale and personnel sustainment issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Convicted military individuals committing murder and returning to the front suggest internal discipline issues or desperation for manpower. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UA:
    • Logistics: UA claimed complete destruction of the "Druzhba" oil pipeline (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). If true, this is a significant disruption to RF energy export infrastructure and may impact fuel availability in certain areas. Damage to Pokrovsk railway station impacts logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Drone Procurement: UA reports 955 drones delivered in the last two days (905 previously, +50 from current report), some for Kupyansk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast is a leader in drone procurement, highlighting strong UA focus on drone warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Domestic Production: UA Ministry of Defense launched a unified platform for armament manufacturers and confirmed "Flamingo" cruise missile production. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is critical for long-term sustainment.
    • Foreign Aid: Trump's statements about selling, not giving, weapons to Ukraine, and Europe being the "first line of defense," imply a potential shift in aid modalities and burden-sharing, which could impact UA resource requirements and constraints going forward. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ukraine's proposed $90 billion weapons purchase for security guarantees suggests a proactive approach to long-term military procurement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

  • RF C2: Previous SIGINT indicated poor artillery coordination and tactical-level command friction within the 1st Army Corps during offensive operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The reported severe injury to RF General Abachev (Deputy Commander of "Sever" Grouping) in Kursk Oblast could impact RF C2 in that direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF continues to strengthen internal digital infrastructure (e.g., "national messenger MAX") to consolidate information channels for narrative control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The Kremlin's quick confirmation of Trump-Putin phone call suggests centralized control over diplomatic messaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA C2: UA General Staff and regional military administrations continue to provide timely operational updates and maintain effective command and control, as evidenced by coordinated defensive and counter-offensive actions and rapid response to threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ukrainian diplomatic efforts in Washington indicate coordinated high-level engagement, despite external pressures and unconventional diplomatic approaches. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ukrainian SIGINT units ("Ghosts") reportedly disabled an RF EW system ("Around Noise"), indicating effective counter-EW intelligence and operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ukraine's delegation's immediate reaction to perceived RF propaganda during the summit (FT report) indicates proactive information environment monitoring. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zelenskyy's post-summit briefing indicates continued effective communication to the Ukrainian population and international partners. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

  • Defensive Posture: UA forces maintain strong defensive positions, particularly in Chasiv Yar, despite sustained RF assaults. They are capable of tactical withdrawals to prepared lines. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Counter-Offensive Capability: UA forces are actively conducting successful localized counter-offensive operations, clearing settlements in Dobropillya and Pokrovsk directions (Hruzke, Vesele, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Zolotyi Kolodyaz) and on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts (Regiment "SKALA"). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UA General Staff asserts RF forces were defeated and repelled from Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Drone Warfare Integration: UA continues to effectively integrate drones for reconnaissance, strike (FPV, munition drops), and counter-DRG operations. UA 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade pilots demonstrate effective drone reconnaissance for artillery and strike drones deep in enemy rear. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Artillery & Counter-Battery: UA's 44th Separate Artillery Brigade "Bogdana" is successfully destroying enemy equipment, indicating effective counter-battery capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Personnel Readiness: While UA Commander Syrskyi noted challenges, successful counter-offensives and captures of RF prisoners indicate continued combat effectiveness. Reports of drone pilots acting as infantry suggest flexibility and potential infantry shortages, requiring adaptive strategies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • New Capabilities: Confirmed launch of "Flamingo" cruise missile production by Ministry of Defense, capable of long-range strikes (allegedly 3000km, though this range needs verification). This indicates a significant upgrade to UA's deep strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ukraine's proposal to purchase $90 billion in US weapons for security guarantees highlights long-term strategic planning for enhancing capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Air Defense: Southern Defense Forces reported destroying 24 Shahed UAVs in the past day, demonstrating effective air defense against drone attacks. UA Air Force also reported intercepting 88/140 enemy UAVs and 0/4 Iskander-M missiles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • SIGINT/EW Capabilities: UA "Ghosts" unit reportedly disabled an RF "Around Noise" EW system, highlighting advanced UA capabilities in this domain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Logistics Readiness: While the Pokrovsk railway station has been damaged, Ukraine continues to operate its logistical networks and adapt to disruptions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

  • Successes:
    • Territorial Gains/Clearance: Liberation of Hruzke, Vesele (Dobropillya area), Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz in Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Successful offensive operations on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF forces repelled beyond the state border in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Enemy Losses: Significant RF personnel losses (1010 in 24h) and equipment destruction across multiple axes. Successful destruction of RF tanks, APCs, motorcycles, EW systems, and ammunition depots through drone and artillery strikes. Colonelcassad's video reinforces this with destruction of vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Deep Strikes: Successful UAV strikes on Syzran Oil Refinery, Olya seaport, "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan (24 confirmed fatalities), Azot chemical plant, and Nikolske oil pumping station in Tambov Oblast (UA claim). Claimed complete destruction of "Druzhba" oil pipeline. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). These are significant strategic and logistical blows to RF.
    • Counter-UAS: Successful downing of a new Russian V2U UAV, indicating effective counter-UAS capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Counter-EW: UA "Ghosts" unit reportedly disabled an RF "Around Noise" EW system. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Prisoner Capture: Capture of RF prisoners in Dobropillya and Toretsk directions, providing valuable intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Diplomatic Engagement: Zelenskyy's successful meeting with Trump and European leaders, despite some differing views, maintained high-level support and opened new avenues for discussion including a potential tripartite meeting with Putin. Zelenskyy's statements about meeting Putin without preconditions on territories represent a significant shift. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Setbacks:
    • Continued RF Pressure: RF continues to exert significant pressure and limited advances in Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk directions, threatening key GLOCs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Damage to Pokrovsk railway station impacts logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Sustained RF Strikes: High volume of RF missile and drone strikes on civilian and infrastructure targets, causing significant casualties (7 fatalities, 23+ injured in Kharkiv; 3 dead, 33 injured in Zaporizhzhia) and damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Poltava and communities without electricity due to strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Sumy State University damaged. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Ballistic missile strike on Dobroslav. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Explosions reported in Lubny, Poltava Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • ISR Degradation: Increased RF EW activity is degrading UA ISR capabilities, particularly for UAVs in certain sectors. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Diplomatic Uncertainty: While the Washington summit included positive aspects, Trump's statements regarding conditional support, no NATO membership, and potential "selling" of weapons introduce uncertainty and potential constraints on future aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The cancellation of the Fox News interview may indicate ongoing sensitivities or a shift in focus. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Finnish President Stubb's comments about Putin's commitments causing uncertainty highlight continued international skepticism regarding RF intentions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • Rutte's statements about the ambiguity of Trump's security guarantee promises further exacerbate this uncertainty. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Territorial Concession Discussions: The fact that Trump has raised the prospect of territory exchange based on current front lines, and Zelenskyy has indicated a willingness to discuss territorial issues directly with Putin, despite previously rejecting such concessions, represents a significant diplomatic shift and potential setback for Ukraine's stated goal of regaining all occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

  • Resources Required:
    • Counter-EW Capabilities: Urgent need for robust counter-EW systems to neutralize new RF systems, particularly near Krasnohorivka, to preserve ISR and C2.
    • Air Defense Systems: Continued high demand for air defense systems and interceptor munitions to counter sustained RF missile and drone attacks, especially against the new wave of UAVs targeting Kremenchuk and Kyiv, and ballistic threats. Zelenskyy's proposal to purchase $90 billion in air defense systems and aircraft directly from the US underscores this need.
    • Artillery Ammunition: High tempo of combat operations implies continued high consumption of artillery ammunition.
    • Drones & Anti-Drone Systems: Continued supply of FPV, reconnaissance, and strike drones, alongside anti-drone capabilities to maintain battlefield advantage.
    • Infantry Reinforcements: Reports of "lack of infantry" in Pokrovsk direction suggest a critical need for additional ground combat personnel.
    • Reconstruction Aid: Significant aid for reconstruction of civilian infrastructure and humanitarian support for affected populations.
    • Financial Guarantees: Securing the proposed $90 billion deal for US weapons and European co-financing is critical for long-term military sustainability, especially with the shift to a "selling" model.
  • Constraints:
    • Aid Modality Shift: Potential shift in US aid from "giving" to "selling" weapons, and increased burden-sharing with Europe, could create financial constraints for Ukraine in the long term. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Logistical Challenges: While UA is making strides in domestic production, sustained combat operations still require external logistical support. Damage to critical logistics nodes like Pokrovsk railway station. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Personnel Availability: Maintaining sufficient combat-ready personnel for both offensive and defensive operations across a vast front remains a challenge.
    • Diplomatic Outcomes: The full implications of the Washington summit are yet to be seen, and the lack of a joint statement or clear commitments beyond discussions leaves some ambiguity regarding future support. Trump's "week or two" timeline for peace or continued fighting creates immediate pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Potential for continued friction with some European partners (e.g., Hungary) over issues like the Druzhba pipeline. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The stated 7-10 day timeframe for security guarantees formulation is ambitious and may be subject to delays. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Rutte's statement about the unclarity of Trump's security guarantee promises highlights a significant constraint on future planning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

  • RF Propaganda:
    • Victory Narratives: RF continues to disseminate claims of "liberation" of Ukrainian settlements (Chasiv Yar, Kolodezi, Voronoye, Iskra), despite contradictory UA reports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Exaggerated UA Losses: RF consistently inflates UA personnel and equipment losses (e.g., 4,500 personnel losses in Luhansk direction, claims of wiping out strongholds). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Demonizing UA: RF accuses UA forces of civilian targeting (e.g., in Lisichansk, Iskra), likely to deflect from their own actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF also amplifies claims of UA military personnel harming themselves to avoid combat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF sources continue to link UA to terrorism (e.g., Crimean Bridge, Smolensk NPP). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF claims "Anvar" Detachment is destroying UA forces in Sumy border. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reporting on the Crocus City Hall attack investigation may be part of an ongoing narrative about perceived threats and justifications for action. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Weakening Western Resolve: RF amplifies reports of potential cuts in Western aid, internal divisions among allies, and portrays Zelenskyy as a "narcotic puppet" or unserious leader, particularly during the Washington summit, to undermine international support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Derogatory comments about Zelenskyy's attire and appearance, and mocking European leaders, are central to this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF attempts to isolate Ukraine from European allies by claiming Trump would only meet Zelenskyy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF continues to push the narrative that Ukraine will not accept peace agreements, despite Zelenskyy's recent statements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Undermining Peace Efforts: RF frames Trump's statements to push a narrative that Zelenskyy is resistant to peace or that Europe is the obstacle, and claims Putin desires peace. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). They also try to preemptively blame Ukraine for any failure in peace talks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF sources (Mironov) claim "preserving Zelenskyy's regime in Ukraine does not guarantee lasting peace and does not meet the interests of Russia, the US, and Europe." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Internal RF Messaging: Appeals for donations for military units and promoting a "national messenger MAX" suggest efforts to maintain public support and control information domestically. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Reports on convicted criminals going to the front indicate internal issues, but their public dissemination could be a deterrence or normalization tactic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reporting on responsibility for dual citizenship demonstrates internal control and legalistic narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Deception/False Flag: FSB claims of preventing a second Crimean Bridge terrorist attack are likely false flag operations or exaggerations to justify RF aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The re-flagging of captured UA M113 with US and RF flags is a clear deception tactic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Claims of North Korean tank crews in Ukraine (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) aim to project increased military cooperation and intimidate.
    • Historical Distortion: FSB publishing documents on Japanese biological weapons development against the USSR is a likely historical information operation aimed at influencing current narratives by linking Ukraine to biological threats or generating a historical threat perception. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Misinformation on Diplomacy: RF outlets quickly confirmed a Trump-Putin phone call, even before US confirmation, and amplified Trump's statements that align with RF interests (e.g., no NATO membership, territory exchange based on current front lines). RF sources are now amplifying Trump's intention to prepare for a direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, and a tripartite meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UA Counter-Narratives:
    • Confirmation of Gains: UA actively reports successful counter-offensive actions and liberation of settlements with supporting photo/video evidence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Highlighting RF Atrocities: UA actively reports civilian casualties and damage from RF strikes, and documents captured RF personnel providing testimony. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Emphasis on Resilience: UA leadership and media maintain a strong narrative of national strength, resilience, and determination to fight for independence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Transparency in Diplomacy: UA provides updates on diplomatic meetings, emphasizing Ukraine's commitment to peace on its own terms and the need for international pressure on Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). They counter RF narratives about Trump's leadership or seriousness by highlighting his purported derogatory comments about Trump reported in Russian media. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zelenskyy's post-summit briefing immediately after the meeting demonstrates a commitment to rapid and transparent communication. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Exposing RF Discrepancies: UA sources actively point out discrepancies in RF claims (e.g., captured "M113" actually a GAZ-71). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Highlighting New Capabilities: Publicizing the launch of "Flamingo" missile production (UA claim) aims to bolster national morale and signal increased capabilities to RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Discrediting RF Leadership/Motives: UA sources, such as ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, state that Putin is the last person who wants the war to end, directly countering RF narratives about peace. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Countering Russian Alcohol Stereotypes: UA sources use satirical content to mock Russian cultural stereotypes (e.g., Russian vodka) in a derogatory manner. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

  • UA Public Sentiment:
    • Resilience & Anger: Civilian casualties in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia likely fuel public anger and resolve against RF aggression, as evidenced by declarations of mourning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Damage to Sumy State University will further provoke public anger. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Support for Military: Continued public support for drone procurement and national morale-boosting messages indicate sustained resolve. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Anticipation for Peace Talks: The high-profile Trump-Zelenskyy meeting is a significant point of public interest, with a desire for concrete outcomes towards peace. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The cancellation of the Fox News interview may generate some uncertainty. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zelenskyy's post-summit briefing aims to manage public expectations and maintain support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Determination Against Concessions: Ukrainian public sentiment, as reflected in official statements, remains strongly against territorial concessions. Zelenskyy's public statement about meeting Putin on territories signifies a cautious but significant shift in messaging, possibly influenced by the summit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Public Sentiment (Inferred):
    • Domestic Focus: RF state media continues to focus on domestic issues (housing, infrastructure, agricultural issues) to project normalcy and government effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Reinforcing Narrative: Constant exposure to victory narratives and demonization of Ukraine aims to maintain public support for the "special military operation." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Recruitment/Volunteerism: Appeals for donations and videos of soldiers receiving awards aim to boost morale and encourage recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Internal reports of wounded soldiers being left without evacuation, if widely known, could damage morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Anticipation of Diplomatic Success: The reported Trump-Putin call and the prospect of a tripartite meeting are being presented as potential diplomatic successes, possibly boosting public confidence in a favorable resolution. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

  • Washington Summit (Zelenskyy-Trump-European Leaders):
    • Key Discussion Points: Initial public statements from Trump and Zelenskyy highlight discussions on ending the conflict, security guarantees for Ukraine, European burden-sharing, and the possibility of a tripartite meeting (US-RF-UA) to discuss territorial issues based on current front lines. Trump stated "Today will either be a deal or no deal. If not, support for Ukraine stops." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Trump expressed confidence in releasing over a thousand POWs soon. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ukraine proposed a $90 billion deal for US weapons in exchange for security guarantees. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Long-term peace should be based on a strong security system, not concessions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zelenskyy has publicly stated he wants to meet Putin unconditionally to discuss territorial issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Macron stated that territorial exchange was not discussed during the meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NATO Membership: Trump explicitly stated Ukraine will not be in NATO but will have security guarantees. Rutte stated there is an irreversible path to NATO, but current membership is not discussed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Aid Modality: Trump suggested a shift towards "selling, not giving" weapons to Ukraine. Rutte confirms US arms supplies will continue through NATO countries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • European Leaders' Role: European leaders (NATO SG Rutte, EC Head von der Leyen, Italian PM Meloni, UK PM Starmer, French President Macron, German opposition leader Merz, Finnish President Stubb) attended the meeting, emphasizing a united front but with nuanced positions. Meloni suggests security talks similar to NATO Article 5; Starmer calls for reliable guarantees; Macron proposes a four-way meeting including Putin. Merz cannot imagine a next meeting without a ceasefire, differing from Trump's view. Merz stated "very frank conversation" with Trump, "very good, focused atmosphere" and "relaxed atmosphere between Trump and Zelenskyy." Merz also said that European leaders agreed with Trump to stay in close contact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Rutte confirms virtual meeting of "coalition of the willing" on August 19. Rutte clarified that deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine was not discussed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Rutte stated that it remains unclear how serious Trump's promises for security guarantees are. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Putin Call: Trump reportedly held a phone call with Putin during the summit, and RF sources confirm this call and the initiation of preparation for a tripartite meeting. Trump states he hopes to conduct a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy by the end of August. Putin is reported to be ready to meet Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy confirmed the FT information regarding the arms deal and the timing of Trump's call to Putin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Outcome: The one-on-one meeting concluded and transitioned to a larger meeting with European leaders, which is still ongoing in the White House. No joint press conference occurred after the closed talks. Trump expressed optimism for an agreement, and Zelenskyy stated they had their best conversation yet and would discuss sensitive territorial questions at the leader level with Trump's mediation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Trump stated that it would be clear within 1-2 weeks if peace could be achieved. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Trump and Putin expressed support for direct negotiations and discussed raising the level of representatives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zelenskyy has departed the White House. The scheduled Fox News interview has been canceled. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Security guarantees are planned to be formulated in 7-10 days. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Diplomatic Efforts:
    • Alaska Summit: Putin and Central Asian leaders (Zhaparov, Modi) discussed the "Alaska talks," indicating RF's efforts to project international engagement and influence on the peace process. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Isolation of UK: RF calls on London to abandon "risky geopolitical gambits" and not interfere with Russian-American negotiators, likely an attempt to isolate the UK. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NATO Red Line: RF reiterates that NATO military contingents in Ukraine are "unacceptable and fraught with uncontrolled escalation," a clear warning against direct intervention. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zelenskyy commented on the possibility of a foreign contingent in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Criticism of Ukraine: RF continues to amplify critical statements against Ukraine from various sources to weaken international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF amplifies a quote from "Baltic Voice" to sow disunity among NATO allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Black Sea Security: Romania's desire to expand joint Black Sea patrolling with Bulgaria and Turkey indicates increased NATO presence and focus on regional security in response to Russian actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Energy Geopolitics: Slovakia stopping Russian oil via Druzhba pipeline, following Hungary, signals further shifts in European energy reliance away from Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ukraine could continue importing gas from Azerbaijan. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Internal Legal/Social: Russia's General Prosecutor's Office recognizing a German foundation aiding fascism victims as "undesirable" highlights internal political moves not directly military. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF successfully achieved the transfer of a Russian doctor from Guantanamo, which could be used for internal propaganda purposes regarding human rights. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

  • Continued Limited Offensives (Donetsk Focus): RF forces will continue localizing their main offensive efforts on the Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske and Pokrovsk directions, aiming for incremental territorial gains to create favorable conditions for future negotiations. They will likely push to fully secure Chasiv Yar and advance towards Konstantinovka/Krasnoarmeysk, possibly using damaged infrastructure like the Pokrovsk railway station for propaganda or as a target for further disruption. The video from Colonelcassad showing active engagements in Dobropillya direction reinforces this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Sustained Deep Strike Campaign with Intensified Focus: RF will continue its high-tempo missile and drone campaign targeting critical infrastructure, military facilities, and population centers across Ukraine. The confirmed Tu-95MS takeoff with pre-launch maneuvers and current mass drone movement strongly indicate new long-range strikes on central Ukraine (Kremenchuk, Kyiv, Brovary, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia) are imminent. Energy and logistics infrastructure will remain primary targets. Nikolaevskiy Vanek confirms ongoing Shahed movements towards Kremenchuk (17 drones) and Dnipro (1 drone), and Zaporizhzhia (1 drone). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Enhanced EW & Counter-UAS Operations: RF will continue to expand and refine its EW capabilities to disrupt UA drone operations and C2, particularly in active combat zones. They will increasingly deploy anti-drone FPV units, potentially supported by dedicated units like "Anvar" in border regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Aggressive Information Operations & Diplomatic Leveraging: RF will intensify information operations, leveraging diplomatic events like the Washington summit to shape narratives, demoralize UA forces, and sow divisions among Ukraine's international partners regarding peace terms and future aid. Expect continued attempts to discredit Zelenskyy and emphasize the "inevitability" of territorial concessions. They will amplify Trump's statements to their advantage, particularly regarding the prospect of a tripartite meeting and the discussions on territorial issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Persistent Border Activity (Sumy/Kharkiv): Following reported setbacks in Sumy Oblast, RF will likely focus on consolidating gains, fixing UA forces, and probing for weaknesses along the northern border of Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts, rather than launching a large-scale offensive in the immediate future. They will continue to use specialized units like "Anvar" for border security and cross-border engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

  • Major Breakthrough in Donetsk with Exploitation: RF successfully achieves a significant operational breakthrough on the Pokrovsk axis, seizing Konstantinovka or Krasnoarmeysk, which could threaten to collapse parts of the Ukrainian front in Donetsk Oblast and compromise key GLOCs, leading to a rapid advance. This would necessitate a major UA redeployment or counter-offensive. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
  • Escalated Hybrid Warfare in Third Countries (Targeted Disruptions): Russia expands its hybrid operations, including more sophisticated cyberattacks and covert actions, against European nations perceived as strong supporters of Ukraine, aiming to destabilize internal politics and reduce aid flows. This could include further attacks on infrastructure like pipelines outside Ukraine, beyond mere disruption, potentially causing long-term damage or widespread panic. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
  • Massive Coordinated Strike on Ukraine's Energy Grid and Industrial Base: RF conducts an unprecedented, highly coordinated long-range strike campaign using all available missile and drone assets to simultaneously target multiple critical energy infrastructure nodes and military-industrial complex facilities across Ukraine, aiming to cripple UA's ability to sustain operations and civilian life. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
  • Deployment of Foreign Military Personnel (e.g., North Korean): Confirmed deployment and operational integration of foreign military personnel (e.g., North Korean tank crews as claimed by RF, though this claim remains uncorroborated) into frontline combat roles could signal a significant escalation in manpower availability for RF and necessitate a re-evaluation of RF combat doctrine and unit capabilities. (LOW CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

  • Immediate (0-24 hours):
    • Threat: High probability of continued RF missile and drone strikes overnight, especially on Kharkiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Kremenchuk, Kyiv, Brovary, and Dnipro, given confirmed Tu-95MS takeoff with pre-launch maneuvers and UAV movements. Ballistic missile threats on southern oblasts (e.g., Odesa) are ongoing. Explosions in Lubny, Poltava Oblast, indicate immediate threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Ground Activity: Localized ground assaults will persist on Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk axes, with RF attempting to exploit any perceived weaknesses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Diplomatic: Fallout from the Washington meeting will continue to unfold, with further statements from various actors. Trump's proposed Putin call and potential tripartite meeting will be central. RF media will heavily spin the outcome. The cancellation of Zelenskyy's Fox News interview adds an element of uncertainty to his planned post-summit messaging strategy. A virtual meeting of the "coalition of the willing" is confirmed for August 19. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Decision Points:
      • Air Defense Alert: Immediate, maximal air defense alert for all threatened regions, with active engagement of incoming UAVs and missiles. Prioritize point defense of critical infrastructure.
      • Damage Assessment: Rapid BDA of any strikes in Kremenchuk, Kyiv, Brovary, Odesa, Lubny, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia to determine impact on energy/logistics/civilian areas.
      • Diplomatic Coordination: Maintain close communication with US and European partners to clarify the implications of the summit's statements and any proposed next steps for negotiations, particularly regarding a potential tripartite meeting with Putin. Develop alternative public messaging strategies following the canceled Fox News interview. Prepare for the "coalition of the willing" virtual meeting.
  • Short-Term (24-72 hours):
    • Ground Activity: Intensification of RF pressure on Konstantinovka/Krasnoarmeysk if RF assesses UA defenses are weakening in the Pokrovsk direction. Continued UA counter-offensive operations to consolidate gains in Dobropillya-Pokrovsk and Dnipropetrovsk-Donetsk border areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Resource Implications: First indications of how proposed changes in aid modalities (selling vs. giving) and the $90B weapons deal might impact immediate UA procurement. The 7-10 day timeline for security guarantees will be a key indicator. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
    • Decision Points:
      • Defensive Reinforcement: Reinforce key defensive lines and GLOCs in the Pokrovsk direction, including pre-positioning reserves and defensive obstacles.
      • Logistics Mitigation: Implement alternative logistical routes or methods to mitigate the impact of strikes on railway infrastructure in Pokrovsk.
      • Budgetary Review: Initiate an urgent review of military procurement and long-term budgetary planning based on potential shifts in foreign aid.
  • Mid-Term (1-2 weeks):
    • RF Regrouping: RF will likely regroup and potentially reinforce forces for a renewed, more concentrated offensive, particularly if current advances prove insufficient or unsustainable. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
    • UA Capability Evolution: The effectiveness of UA's new "Flamingo" missile will be tested and observed, potentially leading to a shift in UA's deep strike strategy. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
    • Diplomatic Landscape: International discussions on peace terms will evolve based on the Washington summit outcomes and ongoing battlefield realities. Trump's stated "week or two" timeline for peace or continued fighting will be a significant factor, potentially creating a window of intense diplomatic and military activity centered around a potential Trump-Putin-Zelenskyy meeting. German Chancellor Merz's statement that a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting could occur within two weeks (potentially bilateral first, then trilateral as per Zelenskyy) indicates a concrete, short-term diplomatic window opening. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Decision Points:
      • Offensive/Defensive Posture Adjustment: Re-evaluate overall strategic offensive/defensive posture based on RF force generation capabilities and the outcome of diplomatic engagements.
      • Public Messaging: Develop a clear public communication strategy to manage expectations regarding peace talks and potential aid changes, maintaining national unity and resolve.
      • Prepare for Diplomatic Engagements: Begin internal preparations for potential high-level bilateral and trilateral meetings, focusing on outlining clear negotiating positions and red lines regarding territorial integrity and security guarantees, especially given Zelenskyy's stated willingness to discuss territorial issues directly with Putin.

INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

  1. PRIORITY ONE - RF Deep Strike Targeting & Munition Loadout:
    • IR: Specific targets of the current large-scale RF drone and cruise missile attacks (Kremenchuk, Kyiv, Brovary, Odesa, Lubny, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia), and correlation of munition types (Shahed, Kalibr, Kh-series, ballistic) with targeted infrastructure/areas. Intent behind renewed strategic bomber activity.
    • Collection Requirements: SIGINT (UAV command links, missile telemetry), IMINT (strike damage assessment, pre-strike imagery of targets), OSINT (local reports, official statements).
  2. PRIORITY TWO - RF EW System Capabilities & Countermeasures:
    • IR: Technical specifications, effective radius, and frequency bands of the new RF EW system near Krasnohorivka. Effectiveness of UA counter-EW measures ("Ghosts" disabling "Around Noise").
    • Collection Requirements: ELINT, HUMINT (intercepted RF chatter on EW effectiveness, UA forces' experience).
  3. PRIORITY THREE - RF Ground Offensive Reserves & Morale:
    • IR: Identification, disposition, and readiness of RF second echelon forces or strategic reserves that could be committed to the Donetsk (Pokrovsk/Konstantinovka) or Zaporizhzhia directions. Morale and discipline indicators within RF mobilized units (e.g., self-harm, convicted criminals in combat). Confirmation of North Korean personnel deployment.
    • Collection Requirements: ISR (satellite imagery, long-range UAVs), HUMINT, OSINT (RF social media recruitment/mobilization efforts, internal criticism).
  4. PRIORITY FOUR - "Flamingo" Missile Capabilities & Production Scale:
    • IR: Independent verification of "Flamingo" cruise missile capabilities (range, payload, accuracy) and confirmation of its combat use against RF targets. Production rate and deployment timelines.
    • Collection Requirements: IMINT, SIGINT (telemetry, launch signatures), BDA from RF targets, HUMINT from UA defense industry.
  5. PRIORITY FIVE - Impact of Druzhba Pipeline Strike on RF Logistics:
    • IR: Independent verification of the claimed complete destruction of the "Druzhba" oil pipeline and its actual, measurable impact on RF energy exports and internal fuel supply for military operations.
    • Collection Requirements: Satellite imagery, OSINT (market analysis, RF domestic reporting on fuel prices/availability), HUMINT from affected regions.
  6. PRIORITY SIX - Concrete Outcomes of Washington Summit & Future Aid:
    • IR: Detailed understanding of the agreed-upon "security guarantees" for Ukraine, including the 7-10 day formulation timeline. Specific commitments from Europe regarding burden-sharing and co-financing. Clarification on the terms of a "selling" versus "giving" weapons model for the proposed $90 billion arms deal. Confirmation and specifics of any future Trump-Putin or tripartite meetings, including the stated goal of a meeting by end of August and the shift to direct territorial discussions. Impact of the canceled Fox News interview on Zelenskyy's public messaging. Expected outcomes and commitments from the August 19 "coalition of the willing" virtual meeting. Clarification on Rutte's assessment of Trump's security guarantee promises.
    • Collection Requirements: OSINT (official statements, press conferences, leaked documents), HUMINT (Western diplomatic and military sources).
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