Sitrep 2025-08-18 21:15:37

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 182100Z AUG 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske Axis): RF forces maintain a confirmed foothold in the eastern Kanal microdistrict of Chasiv Yar, continuing battalion-sized mechanized assaults. UA units executed tactical withdrawal to prepared defensive positions west of the initial line of contact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Clashes persist near Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, Oleksandra-Kalynove, and Pleschiyivka. UA 93rd Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" successfully cleared and took control of Hruzke and Vesele near Dobropillya, also capturing an RF prisoner, indicating localized UA counter-offensive success and stabilization in the Dobropillya area. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and towards Bondarne in the Kramatorsk direction. Rybar (RF source) animated maps indicate Russian advances around Chasov Yar and Katerinovka, with pushes towards Konstantinovka and along the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal, suggesting continued RF focus on consolidating and expanding territorial gains. OSUV "Dnipro" states Russians have occupied two settlements in Donetsk Oblast (unnamed). RF MoD reports Russian artillery destroyed a mortar and a UA UAV control point, likely in Donetsk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) and Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) videos show Azov Brigade successfully repelling a powerful enemy attack and preventing consolidation in Katerynivka, Toretsk direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is a direct contradiction of previous RF claims of gains in the Katerynivka area and indicates effective UA defensive action. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts new video showing drones "clearing strongholds" and covering "our assault teams" in the Krasnoarmeysk direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates continued RF drone support for ground offensives. RF sources (RBC-Ukraine) report explosions in occupied Donetsk, with complaints of unknown drone attacks (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates successful UA drone strikes in occupied territory, highlighting RF vulnerabilities and further contesting the information space. ASTRA (UA source) reports explosions and a subsequent fire in Donetsk, citing local residents (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This corroborates the previous report of UA drone activity in occupied Donetsk. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue in Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) has posted multiple photo messages that appear to be maps or operational summaries of activity in the Siversk direction, providing general information on military operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts new video showing 93rd Mechanized Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" conducting clearance operations of the village of Vesele in the Dobropillya area, supported by tanks and multiple ground robotic systems equipped with machine guns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video footage of the 85th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (OMCBR) operating on the Soledar direction, showing drone footage of a wooded area with debris and smoke from impacts, and a destroyed trench system. This indicates continued RF offensive operations and heavy fighting in Donetsk Oblast, likely focusing on fortified positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) claims RF 36th OA forces (37th OMCBR, 336th Marine Brigade) are likely to force UA to abandon Maliyivka and are advancing from Shevchenko to Yanvarske, though with limited success. This indicates continued RF pressure and potential tactical gains in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (often grouped under "Donetsk" for operational reporting by RF). (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, UA sources need to corroborate). STERNENKO (UA source) posts video of the 3rd SSO Regiment (POPRYVSE) burying RF personnel under collapsed buildings in the Pokrovsk direction, indicating effective UA counter-drone operations and direct combat engagement (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UA source) posts a photo message claiming "successfully demobilized" RF personnel (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) posts video claiming destruction of a UA 2S1 Self-Propelled Howitzer near Konstantinovka, indicating continued RF counter-battery fire and targeting of UA artillery (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Predtechyne, Oleksandro-Shultyne and Bila Hora in Kramatorsk direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) photo message indicates UA forces are having success in several directions in Donetsk Oblast, specifically listing Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz cleared by elements of the 1st Azov Corps (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). This directly contradicts prior RF claims of advances in Zolotyi Kolodyaz and confirms UA regaining territory and establishing control. ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA (RF source) posts a strategic overview map of the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). This map likely shows RF claimed advances and positions. Воин DV (RF source) video shows drone footage of engagements on the South-Donetsk direction by the 57th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, depicting successful strikes on RF positions, equipment, and personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, but showing general combat activity). A photo message from "Сливочный каприз" (RF source) indicates current RF claimed positions between Dobropillya and Zolotyi Kolodyaz (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim), providing a counterpoint to UA claims of liberation. Colonelcassad (RF source) has provided a photo message with no caption, preventing detailed analysis (LOW CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that RF forces struck UA units with FAB bombs in Myrnohrad and Ivanpillia, DNR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim). MoD Russia video shows aerial footage of an urban area, with multiple large explosions and plumes of smoke, indicating ongoing shelling or airstrikes in Donetsk People's Republic, targeting structures within a populated area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) video shows a drone strike on a Russian motorcyclist in the Kurakhove direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims the assault on Konstantinovka has begun. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, LOW - Factual Basis without corroboration). Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UA source) video, captured from a thermal imaging perspective, shows what appears to be a ground vehicle or personnel moving across an open field, with an explosion occurring in the vicinity of the target. This indicates ongoing UA targeting of RF ground elements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates UA counter-offensive action and potential territorial gains or stabilization efforts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video shows the 425th Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts, confirming UA counter-offensive success and potential territorial gains (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video showing captured Russian soldiers providing testimony confirms UA success in combat operations and intelligence gathering (HIGH CONFIDENCE). An Iskander-M missile strike has been reported in Sloviansk, with a confirmed fire at the impact site. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a photo message claiming RF forces are advancing on the Konstantinovka direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) posts a video showing a BM-21 Grad MLRS firing and subsequent aerial footage of strikes on damaged buildings, claiming it is the 238th Artillery Brigade supporting the offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts photo message and a map of the Druzhkivka/Konstantinovka directions (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Підрозділ Shadow (UA source) video shows drone strike on RF positions, including thermal imaging confirmation, indicating effective UA targeting (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) photo message from "Mad'yar" claims Ukraine has completely destroyed the "Druzhba" oil pipeline (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). This is a significant claim impacting RF logistics and European energy supply. DeepState (UA Source) reports map has been updated. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW INFORMATION: Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts photo messages of the Konstantinovka direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Colonelcassad (RF source) reports a KAB-250 strike with UMPK on AFU infrastructure near Rayskoe. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim).
Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovskoe Direction): UA sources report a critical "lack of infantry." RF claims a "big breakthrough" and liberation of Iskra in DNR. RF forces have reportedly broken through into Zolotyi Kolodyaz, with ongoing fighting, and advanced up to 1.5km towards Sokil from Ocheretyne, threatening a key Ukrainian GLOC. UA sources report stabilization and successful destruction of enemy elements, and Ukrainian paratroopers clearing Pokrovsk of Russian DRGs. UA forces repelled enemy near Rubizhne, Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Vesele, Vilne, Shakhove, Nykanorivka, and Sukhetske. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Poltavka, Volodymyrivka, Fedorivka, Novoekonomichne, Rodynske, Sukhetske, Promin, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Udachne, Dachne, Novoukrayinka, Lysivka, Nykanorivka and towards Filiya in the Pokrovsk direction. Main Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reports successful UA advances for the second consecutive day in Dobropillya and Pokrovsk directions, despite challenges. RF sources are consistently reporting heavy fighting and "destruction" of UA equipment/personnel near Pokrovsk. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts photos and video confirming successful UA counter-DRG operations near Pokrovsk. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video of the 425th Regiment "SKALA" showing captured Russian soldiers providing testimony on their unit movements and lack of support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports an attempted assault on Pokrovsk by RF forces utilizing motorcycles, resulting in destroyed RF equipment and casualties. TASS reports that an officer of the press center of the RF 'Vostok' grouping, Aleksei Yakovlev, stated their units have advanced into enemy defenses in Ivankiv, Poltavka, and Zeleny Gay. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This indicates claimed RF ground advances in the Pokrovsk direction. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted multiple photo messages summarizing the General Staff's report as of 08:00, likely including updates on the Pokrovsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim) WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Pokrovsk direction as of 18 AUG 25, indicating continued localized RF advances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). TASS (RF source) reports that the National Guard of Ukraine is relocating some units from Kharkiv Oblast to the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, indicating a perceived increase in RF pressure on this axis and a UA response to reinforce defenses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). TASS (RF source) reports that Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi recognized the situation as difficult along the entire contact line, especially in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. This RF reporting of UA command statements indicates RF awareness of UA force disposition and vulnerabilities in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, supporting previous RF claims of pressure). Mash на Донбассе (RF source) posts aerial video of military activity in Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk area, showing an explosion and vehicle movement, corroborating ongoing fighting and RF presence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Commander Syrskyi commenting on RF forces near Dobropillya, stating "instead of 'forward, victory' - 'encirclement, end'," suggesting effective UA defense or counter-offensive actions in the HIGH CONFIDENCE. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) posts thermal imaging video claiming to show RF rocket artillery striking enemy strongholds in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, supporting RF claims of continued pressure and effective fires (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UA source) reports liberation of Zolotyi Kolodyaz and Petrivka in Donetsk Oblast, supported by video evidence of soldiers and captured prisoners, directly countering RF claims of gains and confirming UA counter-offensive success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Poltavka, Vilne, Nove Shakhove, Zapovidne, Novoekonomichne, Myrolubivka, Novoukrayinka, Lysivka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne and towards Volodymyrivka, Rodynske, Chervone Lymanu, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Molodetske in the Pokrovsk direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) provides a new General Staff update (09:54:05) confirming that UA forces, including the 1st Azov Corps (ZSOU and NGU), have cleared the settlements of Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz in Donetsk Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is a significant counter-offensive success for UA forces, directly contradicting prior RF claims of advances in Zolotyi Kolodyaz and confirming UA territorial gains. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA Source) reports on an RF military individual having shot a civilian in the Pokrovsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia (RF source) claims flamethrowers from the Tsentr Group wiped out a UA stronghold near Krasnoarmeysk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports an RF military individual shot a civilian in Rodynske, Pokrovsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) posts video claiming to show "Rubicon" breaking Ukrainian defenses near Krasnoarmeysk, with drone footage showing a significant explosion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Филолог в засаде (RF source) posted a video requesting donations for a "night bird" (likely DJI Mavic 3T) for artillery reconnaissance on the Pokrovskoe direction, indicating RF drone needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Сливочный каприз (RF source) provided a photo message of their claimed positions between Dobropillya and Kucherov Yar as of 18 Aug 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim). Colonelcassad (RF source) reports intense fighting for Udachne and Pervoye Maya. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that RF forces gained high tempo advance on Donetsk front, and will soon liberate Krasnoarmeysk and Konstantinovka, which will cause the UA front in the region to collapse, citing military expert Yan Gagin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim). Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) appeals for donations for "motorized rifle units and special forces" that are "actively advancing," likely for the Pokrovsk direction, indicating continued RF offensive efforts in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Multiple sources confirm a large map of Ukraine was displayed in the Oval Office during the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting, likely for discussion on territorial control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) and STERNENKO (UA source) post photo messages of the large map of Ukraine in the Oval Office, indicating high-level discussion on territorial control (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Rybar (RF source) posts a tactical map for the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd direction as of 18 AUG 25 (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim).
Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UA reports capture of an RF prisoner from 150th Division by Azov units, and significant RF losses in Azov's areas. Mandatory evacuation of families with children in Druzhkivka suggests anticipated RF advances or increased threat. Closure of Ukrposhta branches in Konstantinovka from August 19 further indicates increasing threat to this logistics hub. Clashes reported near Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, Oleksandra-Kalynove, and Pleschiyivka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Pleschiyivka, Stepanivka, Yablunivka and Rusyn Yar in the Toretsk direction. STERNENKO (UA source) reports that Phoenix UAS tactical group is "cutting Russian logistics" in the Konstantinovka direction, providing video evidence of drone strikes on multiple RF vehicles and personnel. Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) claims RF 4th OMCBR continues to attack towards Delievka – Aleksandro-Shulgino and attempts to break through and consolidate in Belaya Gora. This indicates continued RF offensive efforts in the Toretsk direction. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, UA sources need to corroborate). Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Toretsk, Scherbynivka and towards Oleksandro-Shultyne, Pleschiyivka, Rusyn Yar in thetsk direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Luhansk Oblast (Siversk Direction): RF forces report combat operations with drone-guided artillery and ATGM teams. RF MoD claims destruction of AFU stronghold in Krasny Liman direction. RF aims to advance 2 km to close a "fire bag" for AFU in Kremensky forests. Russian forces reportedly broke through Ukrainian defense lines in the Lyman district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Serebryanka, Vyyimka, Fedorivka, Pereyizne and towards Siversk in the Siversk direction. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Kolodezi in Donetsk People's Republic (Luhansk direction). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 63rd Brigade utilizing three FPV drones to neutralize a Russian tank threatening Ukrainian positions east of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast. RF MoD confirms liberation of Kolodezi and Voronoye. Colonelcassad reports on mobile fire groups operating in Belgorod Oblast and Luhansk People's Republic (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This suggests continued RF focus on countering UA drone threats and defending occupied territories. TASS reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including foreign mercenaries, suffered 4,500 personnel losses in the past week on the Luhansk People's Republic borders, with the Southern Group of Forces inflicting the most damage, as stated by Marochko. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim). This is a likely inflated RF claim of enemy casualties. TASS (RF source) claims that Kyiv has struck Lisichansk, LPR, more than 10 times in the past week, resulting in civilian casualties, citing Marochko (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim). This is a likely RF information operation to demonize UA forces and distract from RF civilian targeting. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Luhansk direction as of 18 AUG 25, indicating continued localized RF advances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Сливочный каприз (RF source) posts a summary of combat operations between August 14-17, 2025, which likely includes the Luhansk direction, indicating RF efforts to consolidate and report perceived successes (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Fedorivka and Vyyimka in the Siversk direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) has provided a photo message of a tactical map for the Siversk direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Mash na Donbasse reports over 1,000 residents of Kamyshnoye and Gerasimovka without power due to a severe fire in LPR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): Sustained RF artillery and FPV drone attacks on Nikopol and surrounding communities. RF claims control of all settlements at the junction of DNR and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast after liberation of Iskra. Extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Nikopol confirmed. Ballistic missile strike on outskirts of Dnipro confirmed with damage to civilian property. Overnight drone attack on Pokrovska community, Synelnykivskyi district, caused fires at agricultural enterprises. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Voronoye in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetrovsk Regional State Administration) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopolshchyna. A ballistic missile threat on Synelnykove and a high-speed target from the east on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Explosions were heard in Pavlohrad. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports destruction of a UA T-72 tank by an FPV drone in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF reconnaissance UAVs detected near Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a drone (UAV) threat to Pavlohrad (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "powerful explosions" in Pavlohrad, indicating a successful RF strike on the city and its use for information operations (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS (RF source) claims UA forces in Iskra, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, killed an elderly female civilian. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim, LOW - Factual Basis). This is a likely RF information operation to demonize UA forces. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropropetrovsk Regional State Administration) reports that RF struck Pavlohrad with a missile overnight, causing a fire which has since been extinguished. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Воин DV (RF source) video footage from an aerial platform with thermal imaging, focused on a wooded area on the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and DNR, targeting what appears to be personnel or equipment, further corroborating RF offensive actions in this region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces struck Pavlohrad Repair and Mechanical Plant and Technical Equipment Plant. This indicates RF continues to target military-industrial targets in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). MoD Russia (RF source) video of servicemen from the Vostok Group of Forces describing the liberation of Iskra in Donetsk People's Republic, mentioning a deceased woman and enemy shelling of civilians, implies RF presence and control in a previously contested area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, LOW - Factual Basis of civilian targeting attribution). Mash на Донбассе (RF source) posts a UA UAV attacked a gas station in Yenakiieve, DNR, with information on casualties pending (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports that UA forces inflicted a successful strike on a gas station in Yenakiieve (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim), corroborating the Mash report and confirming UA drone activity in occupied territories. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports a substation hit by a "Geran" drone in Mezhove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming continued targeting of critical energy infrastructure (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок (RF source) provides video of a burning power substation in Mezhove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming the previous report of a "Geran" drone strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetrovsk Regional State Administration) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol, Marhanets, and Pokrovske communities throughout the day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Photos show damaged civilian buildings, indicating civilian impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates UA counter-offensive action and potential territorial gains or stabilization efforts. NEW INFORMATION: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of strike UAVs in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading towards Pavlohrad. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkivskyi District): UA Air Force alerts for high-speed targets and KAB launches. RF claims improved position near Krasny Perviy, controlling ~6 km of road to Dvorechnaya. A substantial increase (estimated 40%) in Russian EW emissions has been detected in the Kharkiv sector, primarily targeting Ukrainian reconnaissance UAVs and degrading ISR capabilities. Continued RF reconnaissance UAVs in northern and eastern Kharkiv Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Khatnye and Fyholivka in the South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 4 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes in the past day. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports 11 casualties in Kharkiv from recent RF attack (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олег Синєгубов, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, reports 3 additional casualties, bringing total to 11 (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) corroborates the 11 casualties (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration (UA source), provided multiple photo messages (22:14:48-22:14:49Z) showing damaged civilian residential buildings, debris, and emergency services personnel in Kharkiv after an RF attack. The presence of a child's stuffed toy amidst the rubble and civilians being comforted by a psychologist highlights the significant civilian impact of these strikes. The watermark "ХАРКІВСЬКА ОБЛАСНА ВІЙСЬКОВА АДМІНІСТРАЦІЯ" confirms the location and official source (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "continuing to pound Kharkiv" with "powerful explosions," indicating ongoing RF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна reports an explosion heard in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Mayor Igor Terekhov confirms "Shahed" hits in Industrialnyi district, including a multi-story residential building, with fire in two entrances and risk of collapse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Oleg Syniehubov confirms two casualties (25-year-old male, 79-year-old female) from drone strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Subsequent reports from Oleg Syniehubov indicate 10-year-old boy, 19-year-old girl, 46-year-old male, and 47-year-old female hospitalized. Mayor Igor Terekhov reports one fatality and five injured. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This confirms continued RF precision strikes on civilian infrastructure and the use of UAVs for these strikes, leading to escalating civilian casualties. Kharkiv now reports four fatalities (up from three), including a one-year-old child and a 55-year-old woman, and 17 injured (including 6 children). Another person was rescued alive from under the rubble. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is a significant and tragic escalation in civilian casualties from RF drone strikes. Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) reports 5 people are currently missing in the Industrialnyi district of Kharkiv following the attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and РБК-УкраїНА (UA source) have released additional video footage showing the ongoing search and rescue operation and the extent of the damage to the multi-story residential building in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ASTRA (UA source) has released photos and a drone video showing the extensive destruction of the five-story residential building in Kharkiv, confirming the severity of the strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports on the drone attack on a residential high-rise in Kharkiv, confirming four fatalities, including a two-year-old child, and injured, underscoring the indiscriminate nature of the attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports a 16-year-old boy became the fourth victim of the morning attack on Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна (UA source) reports five fatalities in Kharkiv from the morning strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) corroborates five fatalities in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) corroborates five fatalities in Kharkiv and provides video footage of the aftermath. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Север.Реалии (UA source) reports at least four fatalities in Kharkiv, with people still being extracted from rubble. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) reports enemy strikes on Kharkiv and 10 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast over the past day, providing photo evidence of damaged civilian residential buildings and debris, further confirming the widespread targeting of civilian areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports five fatalities and at least 30 injured from enemy attacks on Kharkiv, with multiple photo messages confirming the severe damage to civilian areas. This further confirms escalating civilian casualties and the humanitarian crisis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) reports the number of injured in Kharkiv has increased to 20 from drone attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) also reports 30 injured in Kharkiv following the Russian attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts video and photo messages of the aftermath of the Kharkiv attacks, describing a "Morning in Kharkiv," with visuals of smoke, damaged buildings, and emergency services. This further corroborates the severity of civilian impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) declares August 18 a day of mourning in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating the severe impact of recent attacks (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports the number of injured in Kharkiv has increased to 20, citing National Police (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) reports the number of fatalities in Kharkiv has increased to 6, citing the mayor (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) confirms 6 fatalities in Kharkiv (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts an informational message on the situation in the Kharkiv operational zone as of the morning of 18 August 2025 (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the number of fatalities in Kharkiv has risen to 7, with another body retrieved from the rubble (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) corroborates 7 fatalities in Kharkiv (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) also confirms 7 fatalities in Kharkiv (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts video of border guards liquidating 5 enemy targets on the South Slobozhansky direction (Kharkiv), including a tank, confirming active UA defense and counter-battery fire in the region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and Рыбарь (RF source) both post video of a military convoy with RF and US flags, with the RF side claiming it is a "trophy M113" and engaged in combat, suggesting RF deception or information operations during ground assaults in the Kharkiv direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) posts video of a Russian attack on Kharkiv from the city's mayor (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video of Kharkiv mayor showing morning Shahed strikes on residential areas (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) posts video of Kharkiv mayor showing the moment of a Russian strike on a residential building (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts video of Kharkiv, claiming "Tests continue. Be good!" with footage of explosions in an urban environment at dawn/dusk, implying continued RF strikes (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing the moment of an RF strike on a residential building in Kharkiv, corroborating the attack on civilian infrastructure (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts video showing medics attempting to resuscitate a small child, confirming a tragic child fatality, and showing rescue efforts from damaged building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, reports an additional three people sought medical attention after the Kharkiv attack, bringing the confirmed injured toll to 23. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts multiple photo messages indicating effective UA drone reconnaissance by the 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, locating enemy targets and adjusting artillery and drone strikes deep in enemy rear. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) has provided a photo message warning of fire danger in Kharkiv Oblast. This indicates a heightened risk of fires due to environmental conditions, which could be exacerbated by military activity (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on northern Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) reports 24 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast, including Kharkiv city, were hit by enemy strikes last week. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video footage of a series of impacts in Kharkiv, likely from RF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports that "Khartia" drones successfully located and struck an RF camp in Kharkiv Oblast, including dugouts, shelters, and a fuel/lubricant depot, confirming effective UA drone reconnaissance and strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts three photo messages depicting a battle map of the Kharkiv direction, indicating continued RF operational planning and perceived advances in the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) posts a photo message celebrating Ukrainian leadership and national strength, likely for morale boosting (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts video showing civilian structures being transported by trucks at night, with a caption "Operation Web. Got lost :)" and "Welcome to Ukraine," possibly indicating logistical movement within Ukraine and a morale boost. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a video of a formal gathering of international dignitaries, including what appears to be Zelenskyy and Trump (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows drone operators of the 3rd Assault Brigade dropping munitions on RF in Kharkiv Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast is under bomb strike and threat of strike UAVs in parts of oblasts (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW INFORMATION: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports RF KAB strikes on Ruska Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows 3rd Assault Brigade drone operators striking RF positions in Kharkiv Oblast while peace talks are ongoing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast under bomb strike and UAV threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Chernihiv Oblast: UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs, high-speed targets, and threat of strike UAVs. "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on a forward Ukrainian command post in Birino area confirmed. Ballistic missile impact in Honcharivske reported. RF claims destruction of a foreign mercenary legion's base. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Krasnyy Khutir of Chernihiv region. Colonelcassad reports Kinzhal strike near Desna and Geran/Gerbera strikes near Semenivka (Chernihiv Oblast). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV threat to Brovary and Boryspil districts in Kyiv Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE) and a UAV threat to Kyiv (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates continued RF drone activity in northern Ukraine, potentially targeting key infrastructure near the capital. Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy UAVs on northern Chernihiv Oblast and in the Pryluky area, with assets engaged to shoot them down (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка (RF source) claims "Geran" drones are "drilling" Chernihiv Oblast, indicating sustained RF strike activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports enemy UAVs attacked Kyiv Oblast overnight, damaging a hangar in Boryspil district. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Chernihiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia (RF source) video claiming Geran-2 UAVs hit AFU special forces units of GUR near Zhadovo, Chernihiv region, providing BDA footage (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UA source) reports UAVs in central Chernihiv Oblast near Pryluky, with assets engaged to shoot them down (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RF source) posts video claiming Geran strikes hit GUR special forces in Chernihiv, indicating continued RF targeting of high-value Ukrainian units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy strike UAV on northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UA Air Force reports a UAV threat (likely strike UAV) in Chernihiv Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces struck a training center in Chernihiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kherson Oblast (Left Bank Dnieper): UA reports destruction of an RF ammunition depot and four vehicles on the left bank. RF claims Lancet strike destroyed US M-777 howitzer and Ukrainian Bogdana SPG on right bank. Ukrainian Navy radio intercepts confirm loss of Russian Su-30SM fighter jet southeast of Snake Island. UA forces repelled 4-6 Russian army assaults. UA source claims reconnaissance units entered "Novaya Kakhovka" on the Kherson direction and are shelling enemy defenses. Southern Ukraine Defense Forces report continued strikes on enemy deployment areas, fire positions, and rear areas in the southern operational zone. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports strikes on Khadzhibeevka and Usatove (Odesa region), specifically targeting "marine BECs" (likely maritime drones/boats) and a 330kv power substation (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates continued RF counter-UAV and infrastructure targeting efforts in the Odesa direction. TASS (RF source) claims that the "Kyiv-appointed" administration of Kherson has long since left the city and is operating remotely from Mykolaiv, citing pro-Russian underground sources (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim, LOW - Factual Basis). TASS reports that the AFU lost a Starlink satellite communication station and 17 UAV control points in the zone of responsibility of the 'Vostok' grouping in the past 24 hours. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim) This indicates RF claims of successful targeting of UA C2 and communication infrastructure in southern/eastern Ukraine. Два майора (RF source) posts thermal imaging footage claiming to show activity in Kherson at night. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim, LOW - Factual Basis of the content). Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) provides operational information for the Southern Defense Forces as of 08:00 on 18 AUG 25, likely including updates on Kherson direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Kherson direction as of 18 AUG 25, indicating continued localized RF advances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of explosions and vehicle activity in the Kherson direction, with text implying "good news," likely indicating successful RF strikes or operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). MoD Russia (RF source) video shows artillerymen of the 49th Army hitting fortifications on the right bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim).
Odesa Oblast: STERNENKO reports groups of strike UAVs in the north and near Odesa Oblast. РБК-Україна reports an alert from Odesa Oblast Military Administration calling residents to shelters due to strike UAVs. STERNENKO reports Odesa is under a massive "Shahed" drone attack, with explosions heard (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports reduction in drone numbers near Odesa, with one drone continuing towards Odesa/Usatove (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports continued drone threats in Velyka Balka-Nerubaiske and Radisne-Velykyi Dalnyk (Odesa Oblast) (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports a large fire in Odesa after a massive Shahed strike (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RF source) posts multiple photo and video messages reporting "powerful strikes on enemy objects in Odesa, fires in the city" with visual evidence of large fires and explosions (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports that RF drones struck a Nova Poshta terminal in Odesa, citing local media, confirming the civilian nature of some targets (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника (RF source) claims that their strike UAVs hit "several objects" in Odesa overnight and provides a series of associated videos/photos, likely as BDA or propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim) Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна (UA source) confirm an RF drone strike on a fuel and energy infrastructure object and a two-story building in the suburbs of Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ASTRA reports a fire on a fuel and energy infrastructure object in Odesa Oblast due to RF drone attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) reports Odesa was attacked by Shaheds all night, corroborating sustained RF drone activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video of the aftermath of strikes on an alleged SOCAR oil depot in Odesa Oblast, indicating continued RF targeting of energy infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims Geran drones destroyed a "giant fuel terminal" of SOCAR (Azerbaijani oil company) in Odesa Oblast, with all 17 tanks, pumping station, and technical rooms destroyed (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, LOW - Factual Basis of complete destruction). Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) reports 24 Shahed UAVs destroyed by Southern Defense Forces in the past day (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a map/graphic titled "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine August 17 - August 18, 2025," which likely includes Odesa (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Colonelcassad also posts video of an explosion with "kurs_odessa" watermark, implying strikes on Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video claiming a massive Shahed attack on SOCAR oil depot in Odesa Oblast overnight, citing Azerbaijani media, corroborating previous reports (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts video claiming "Azerbaijani fuel tanks extinguished. Aliyev knows geopolitics. Result is visible" with footage of damaged tanks, indicating that the fire at the SOCAR oil depot has been contained (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Colonelcassad (RF source) comments that overnight strikes in Odesa targeted Nova Poshta objects and SOCAR, which are being used by Ukrainian forces, and that Russia "methodically hits Azerbaijani objects in Ukraine used for AFU interests," confirming RF intent to target these facilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) posts video of significant damage to industrial or storage tanks in Odesa, further corroborating the strike on the SOCAR oil depot (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) also posts video showing the aftermath of attacks on SOCAR in Odesa, with damaged storage tanks, confirming civilian impact of strikes and industrial damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RF source) provides photos of a large fire, likely in Odesa, claiming a fuel and energy infrastructure object was hit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) posts video showing a significant fire at the SOCAR oil depot, indicating ongoing damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) posts photos showing a large fire at the SOCAR oil depot in Odesa, confirming the severity of the strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kotsnews (RF source) posts videos confirming significant damage and fires at the SOCAR oil depot in Odesa, amplifying RF claimed success (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) also posts video of the aftermath of the SOCAR oil depot strike (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) has posted a photo message regarding Romania's desire to expand joint Black Sea patrolling with Bulgaria and Turkey, indicating NATO's increased presence and focus on Black Sea security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Geopolitical Context). Colonelcassad (RF source) provides a summary of strikes on enemy objects in Ukraine from the night of August 17-18, 2025, confirming sustained RF strike activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo (RF source) posted videos showing the aftermath of the SOCAR strike in Odesa, including damaged tanks and a large fire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO video shows aerial footage likely from a drone, observing an area with what appear to be defensive positions or fortifications, suggesting a reconnaissance or surveillance mission. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha reacting to the RF strike on the SOCAR oil depot, stating Moscow does it "intentionally." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RF claims destruction of AFU ammunition depot. 578 RF strikes on 14 settlements over past day. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast. A 64-year-old man was wounded in a hostile attack on Polohivskyi district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Tolstoy, Komyshuvakha, Zelene Pole, Maliyivka, Myrne, Zaporizhzhke, Olhivske in the Novopavlivka direction. Colonelcassad reports VKC and missile forces conducted strikes on targets in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація reports air raid alert over (HIGH CONFIDENCE). An air raid alert has been declared in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE), and has since been lifted (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) has re-declared an air raid alert. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of aviation weapons use in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia district, with assets engaged to shoot them down. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports the air raid alert has been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) has re-declared an air raid alert. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat in areas where air raid alerts are declared. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports ballistic missile activity towards Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target towards Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports an explosion in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) reports Zaporizhzhia is under ballistic missile attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports a second ballistic missile towards Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports a third explosion heard in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports repeated explosions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast amid a ballistic threat, citing the OBA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports RF is attempting to strike critical infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia, citing Fedorov. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) corroborates RF attempts to strike critical infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia, with initial reports of casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) confirms RF strikes on Zaporizhzhia, with two impacts and an increase in injured persons to four. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborates two strikes on Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the ballistic missile threat has been lifted for all oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports four injured in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) also reports four injured in Zaporizhzhia from the double strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports that 6 people, two in serious condition, have been hospitalized in Zaporizhzhia due to attacks on the regional center. This indicates a further increase in casualties and confirms sustained RF targeting of Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) also reports 6 injured after the RF strike on Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborates the increasing number of casualties in Zaporizhzhia, with some "heavy" injuries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) posts photos from the State Emergency Service showing the aftermath of Russian ballistic missile attacks on Zaporizhzhia, confirming civilian damage and humanitarian impact (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports 7 injured in Zaporizhzhia (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) reports 17 injured in Zaporizhzhia after RF strike, citing local authorities (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) confirms 17 injured in Zaporizhzhia (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) also reports 17 injured in Zaporizhzhia (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) posts photos showing damage to residential buildings, enterprises, commercial premises, and a bus stop in Zaporizhzhia due to the RF strike (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Syrskyi stating Russia is concentrating troops and planning a large-scale offensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating increased threat (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) posts video showing firefighters and emergency personnel clearing debris from a heavily damaged commercial building in Zaporizhzhia, confirming continued RF strikes on civilian infrastructure and the ongoing emergency response (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) posts video of significant damage to a multi-story building and debris in Zaporizhzhia, confirming casualties and the impact of RF attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Zelenyy Hay, Tolstoy, Oleksandrohrad, Voskresenka, Maliyivka, Vilne Pole and Temyrivka in the Novopavlivka direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Novoandriyivka in the Orikhiv direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA) reports a man rescued from debris has died (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA) corroborates the death of the man in Zaporizhzhia (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA) reports air raid alert lifted in Zaporizhzhia (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports 3 dead and 18 injured from the morning attack on Zaporizhzhia, with many in serious condition (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports 23 people, injured by the enemy attack, are receiving medical assistance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA) corroborates 23 injured in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) corroborates 23 injured in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) corroborates 23 injured in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) posts video showing the aftermath of the missile strike, highlighting damaged buildings, debris, and emergency response, confirming civilian impact and casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a video appealing for donations for drones and Starlink for units of the 7th Airborne Division in the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating ongoing equipment needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) posts photos showing the 44th Separate Artillery Brigade "Bogdana" successfully destroying enemy equipment, confirming UA counter-battery capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) reports on an RF M113 APC with RF and US flags operating in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, claiming it is a trophy and engaged in combat (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is consistent with previous reports of RF re-flagging captured UA equipment for deception and propaganda. Два майора (RF source) posted a video claimed to be a tank strike in the Lukyanovskoe area of Zaporizhzhia. The video shows a drone feed with obscured content but mentions a "tank burning," providing some evidence of active combat (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, but visual is limited). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports an increase in the number of injured persons to 27. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the number of injured in Zaporizhzhia has risen to 24. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) states that the Commander-in-Chief's statement about enemy intent to break through the Zaporizhzhia front and advance deep into Ukrainian territory was not new to them and that they are working preemptively. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Statement). Два майора (RF source) posted a drone video from the Zaporizhzhia front, showing a drone with a munition, an aerial view of a trench with activity, and a Ukrainian flag near a destroyed vehicle/trench. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). This indicates continued RF drone strikes and attempts to degrade UA positions. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the number of injured in Zaporizhzhia increased to 30. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports 30 injured in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) reports 30 injured in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports Zaporizhzhia Oblast is a leader in drone procurement among all Ukrainian regions, indicating ongoing efforts to enhance drone capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) reports up to 30 injured in Zaporizhzhia due to the recent attack, citing Ivan Fedorov, head of the OVA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Photos confirm significant damage to residential buildings, private sector homes, and non-residential buildings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports an air raid alert declared in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of ballistic weapons in areas where air raid alerts are declared. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports the number of injured in Zaporizhzhia has increased to 33. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) declares an air raid alert (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UA source) reports a threat of ballistic weapons use (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) reports on current combat activity on the Zaporizhzhia front with drone footage of artillery strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a video appealing for donations for drones and Starlink for the 7th Airborne Division in the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW INFORMATION: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kupyansk Axis: Previous reports indicated a decisive shift of RF main effort with the capture of Ivanivka. RF continues strikes on settlements. UA reports successful tank sorties and drone operations against RF personnel and equipment. Commander of "Achilles" Regiment Fedorenko (UA source) reports RF plans to occupy Kupyansk by August 24. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports the first mechanized attack by RF on the left bank of Kupyansk in a long time, involving 2 tanks, 3 MT-LBs, and ~40 personnel, which was repelled with destruction of enemy equipment. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Kupyansk direction as of 18 AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). STERNENKO (UA source) reports that 905 drones have been delivered to the Defense Forces in the last two days, with some intended for the Kupyansk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports a new "singing" RF prisoner was taken under Muravka, Donetsk Oblast, identified as Vladimir Sergeevich from the 35th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). TASS reports the head of Kharkiv VGA Ganchev claims Russian forces are encircling Kupyansk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, LOW - Factual Basis without corroboration).
Sumy Oblast: РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian forces actively destroying the enemy in Sumy Oblast, pushing back Russians near Oleksiivka and Yunakivka. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of a destroyed UA M577 command post vehicle in Sumy Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing an RF truck with ammunition epically destroyed by a Ukrainian drone on the way to Sumy Oblast. TASS reports that RF forces have improved their tactical position near Yunakovka, Sumy Oblast, and occupied new positions. Операция Z (RF source) thermal imagery video titled "Спецназ «Анвар» и ВДВ массово сжигают бронтехнику врага, поддерживая наступление на Сумы" claims successful destruction of UA armored vehicles by Spetsnaz "Anvar" and VDV units supporting an offensive on Sumy (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim). This indicates a potential new RF offensive axis or significant fixing operation in the Sumy direction. РБК-Україна reports a 57-year-old woman injured by a KAB strike on Novoslobidska community, Sumy Oblast, around 22:00 (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new UAVs on northern Sumy Oblast, moving southwest (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports a missile strike on Sumy around 22:40, damaging a building of an educational institution (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted photo messages confirming a missile strike on an educational institution in Sumy late last night, showing significant damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка (RF source) posts a mocking caption suggesting RF strikes or activity in Shostka, Sumy Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF reconnaissance UAVs are operating near Putyvl, Sumy Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Sumy, claiming something "self-detonated" among UA forces (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim, LOW - Factual basis of claimed intent/cause). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports a series of explosions in Sumy (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 new RF UAVs detected east of Bilopillya, moving southwest (HIGH CONFIDENCE). KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Sumy Oblast moving southwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна reports continued RF attacks on Sumy, with explosions confirming strikes on civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad shares video footage from the 68th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th Army, Western Military District, showing a military pickup truck engaging enemy forces with mounted weaponry. This footage is from Sumy Oblast and indicates active RF offensive/reconnaissance operations in the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy district, with assets engaged to shoot them down. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS (RF source) claims that Ukrainian Armed Forces command in Sumy Oblast has committed all resources to outflank RF forces in Yunakivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video showing two individuals in a wooded area with abandoned cars and a quad bike, claiming it depicts RF forces marauding in border villages of Kursk Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim of RF Maraduing). Kotsnews (RF source) posts video with caption "Syrsky: Kursk - best result among all major operations," which is an RF information operation likely taking UA statements out of context (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). MoD Russia (RF source) video claiming a BM-21 Grad MLRS crew eliminated a manpower cluster of the AFU in Sumy region (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts video of a Lancet loitering munition preparation and strike, stating "Sumy direction: 'Iksavody VDV' are working!", indicating continued RF air/drone support for ground operations in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF) claims the Sumy State University was hit by a "Flamingo missile" (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, LOW - Factual Basis of Weapon Type). Два майора (RF source) posts video showing an RF FPV drone strike with the caption "Sumy direction: 'Iksavody VDV' are working!" indicating continued RF drone operations in Sumy (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy strike UAV on northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF activity on the Sumy direction, with an aerial view of an exploding vehicle, suggesting active engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) asserts that RF forces have been defeated in Sumy Oblast, suffering significant losses and being repelled beyond the state border after an unsuccessful attempt to advance in the area of Stepne and Novokostiantynivka. UA forces are reportedly continuing offensive actions in the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a video of drone-guided artillery or air strikes on a forested area with multiple explosions, indicating active combat and effective UA fire (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) amplifies Syrsky's (misquoted) statements regarding high casualties in Sumy direction, likely to demoralize UA forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts a photo message showing activity on the Eastern Direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports a severe injury to an RF General in Kursk Oblast from a HIMARS strike, which could impact RF C2 in that direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, but likely factual due to details and official confirmation). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video from local residents showing a visual confirmation of RF "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on Sumy State University. The video shows explosions and fires at night. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This corroborates previous UA reports of the strike. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAV threat to Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS (RF source) reports RF military expert Yan Gagin claiming AFU unsuccessfully counterattack in Sumy Oblast and suffer huge losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). MoD Russia (RF source) video shows Uragan MLRS crews eliminating AFU armored vehicles and personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). MoD Russia (RF source) video shows T-80BVM tanks of the Sever Group of Forces eliminating AFU hardware and manpower in Sumy region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). RF has again attacked civilian infrastructure in Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast moving south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of enemy UAVs on the north, east, and south of Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). An explosion was heard in Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Poltava Oblast: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Poltava Oblast moving towards Myrhorod. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). An enemy UAV is heading south from northern Sumy Oblast towards Poltava Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW INFORMATION: РБК-Україна reports Poltava and its community are without electricity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of enemy UAVs on the north, east, and south of Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Groups of strike UAVs reported moving towards Kremenchuk from east and north. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Kyiv Oblast: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports a car explosion in Podilskyi district, Kyiv, with one person sustaining minor injuries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) posts photos of the car explosion in Kyiv's Podilskyi district, confirming the incident. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) provides multiple photo messages of a fire incident in an urban environment, implying an attack on Kyiv Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). Операция Z (RF source) posts video claiming "Ukrainian partisans" blew up a military vehicle in Kyiv, linking it to the previous reported car explosion (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF information operation). Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports on a scheme to launder over 160 million UAH during the construction of the Podilskyi Bridge in Kyiv, with two company directors suspected (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates ongoing internal security operations in Kyiv, not directly military, but can impact public trust. Multiple photos and videos from KMVA show a large fire at a multi-story building, with firefighters and rescue operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports enemy UAVs attacked Kyiv Oblast overnight, damaging a hangar in Boryspil district. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts photo messages featuring soldiers from the 21st separate mechanized brigade, emphasizing their defense of independence and contribution from Kyiv residents. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Morale/Info-op). Николаевский Ванёк reports on a preliminary meeting regarding a terrorist act in Mykolaiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Internal Security). The Presidential Brigade of Ukraine (UA source) posted a video showing a successful drone strike on two Russian soldiers and their motorcycle, with text "200 x2" (killed in action x2). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates continued UA counter-personnel operations, including against RF reconnaissance or forward elements. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts a video of a Ukrainian soldier sitting amongst destroyed buildings, with an overlaid song and text, indicating a memorial or artistic piece related to the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports an air raid alert in Kyiv due to the takeoff of a Russian MiG-31K, a carrier of the Kinzhal aeroballistic missile, and the threat of ballistic weapons. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) confirms the air raid alert in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) confirms the air raid alert in Kyiv and several oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) confirms the MiG-31K in the air. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) provides a map of the air raid alert. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) also confirms the MiG-31K takeoff. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat of MiG-31K has been lifted for all oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Overall Frontline: RF continues employment of FPV drone swarms and Lancet loitering munitions, with a reported 20% increase in Lancet strikes in the last 24 hours. UA inflicted significant personnel losses (1010 RF personnel in the last 24h, total 276,300 since year start). UA deep strikes into RF territory include the Syzran Oil Refinery (Samara Oblast), Olya seaport (Astrakhan Oblast), the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast, and a drone attack on Azot chemical plant in Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol Krai. 61 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed by UA. Prisoner exchange of 84 servicemen conducted. TASS reports Putin congratulated the Russian Geographical Society on its 180th anniversary (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Rybar (RF source) posts a photo message which is likely an analytical overview or summary of current military developments from an RF perspective (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports on cyber activity against Russian organizations, finding over 180 infected systems, 49 still controlled by one hacking group (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS also reports Mikhail Ulyanov stating that the West should provide Russia with the same reliable security guarantees as Ukraine (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z reports that Ukraine fears a verbal altercation between Zelenskyy and Trump at their next meeting, citing Washington Post (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF info-op). Новости Москвы reports "viewing TikToks and Reels is five times more dangerous than alcohol" (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) posts a video of two black kittens and a hedgehog (22:39:09Z) (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Igor Artamonov (RF source) reports a yellow alert "air danger regime" declared for all of Lipetsk Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS quotes a Serbian sniper, Dejan Beric, stating that sniper scouts no longer conduct foot reconnaissance behind enemy lines, as drones now perform these tasks (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports a "Carpet" plan has been introduced in Penza Oblast, suggesting an air defense alert due to potential aerial threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The "Carpet" plan in Penza Oblast has been canceled, as reported by the governor, indicating a de-escalation of the immediate air threat in that region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video message from Sumy Oblast, showing military vehicle movement through forested areas and along dirt roads, and one instance of what looks like an engagement (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates active RF operations, including reconnaissance or direct engagement, in Sumy Oblast. TASS reports Polyansky's statement that the settlement process in Ukraine must consider the opinion of 7 million Ukrainians who sought refuge in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Trump claims Zelenskyy can end the conflict by renouncing Crimea and NATO membership. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zelenskiy / Official reports arrival in Washington for meeting with President Trump and European leaders, stating desire for a quick and lasting peace, contrasting with previous forced concessions. Notes successes in Donetsk and Sumy regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports on the "Crocus" terrorist attack, mentioning a co-conspirator convicted in Tajikistan for calls to change the constitutional system. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Rybar (RF source) has posted an analytical overview of the current military developments from an RF perspective, titled "Chronicle of the SVO for August 16-17." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) also posted a summary of events for the morning of August 18, 2025. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that the Tambov airport has lifted restrictions on aircraft reception and departure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports that Russia expects constructive relations with the new authorities of Bolivia regardless of the presidential election results. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) and Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) report estimated general combat losses of enemy personnel (+940 in the last 24h) and equipment (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA claim). This aligns with previous General Staff reports. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts images of new Chinese anti-ship hypersonic missiles (YJ-15, YJ-17, YJ-19, YJ-20) from a parade rehearsal in Beijing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This is not directly related to current Ukraine operations but is an observation of a global military development. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy is scheduled for 20:15 Kyiv time and will last one hour. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF MoD claims 23 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF and annexed Crimea overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim) Fighterbomber (RF source) posts an image of historical Soviet propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS (RF source) and ASTRA (UA source, citing Kremlin media) report that the FSB prevented a second terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge and detained co-conspirators. The FSB claims it was the second such attempt this year. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim) Kotsnews (RF source) also reports on the thwarted Crimean Bridge attacks, confirming the widespread dissemination of this narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim) TASS (RF source) reports 20 fatalities at an incident at the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This confirms the significant impact of the earlier reported UA deep strike on this facility. Igor Artamonov (RF source) reports a red level UAV attack threat declared for Lipetsk, Lipetsk MO, Gryazinsky MR, Dobrinsky MR, Khlevensky MR, Usmansky MR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This indicates a significant and widespread air defense alert in central Russia. TASS (RF source) reports the Russian government plans to increase demand for housing and affordability of mortgages for preferential categories of citizens. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This is a domestic Russian news item, likely aimed at demonstrating government concern for social welfare. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video footage of sniper pairs of the 299th Yaroslavl Regiment engaged in combat operations against both enemy personnel and aerial targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This indicates continued RF counter-UAV efforts by ground units. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) and Два майора (RF source) are amplifying the FSB claims of the prevented Crimean Bridge terror attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim) TASS reports that Zelenskyy is ready to make concessions and agree to a peaceful settlement of the conflict along the current front line, citing FT. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF info-op) WarGonzo and Kotsnews confirm the FSB reports of a prevented terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim) Басурин о главном (RF source) also amplifies the FSB claim of a thwarted Crimean Bridge terror attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim) РБК-Україна reports an explosion of a car painted to look like a military vehicle in Kyiv, with one casualty. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Два майора (RF source) posts a video of an APC moving across open terrain, with soldiers riding on top and a Russian flag displayed. This depicts RF personnel and equipment in transit, likely for movement or positioning of forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) posts a photo message advertising a bot for mobilization news. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Internal Info-op). WarGonzo (RF source) provides a series of tactical maps for the morning of 18 AUG 25, covering various directions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts a photo message promoting his information channel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Internal Info-op). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a technical diagram/illustration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» (UA source) posts a photo message of their brigade emblem. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Internal Info-op). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a video appeal for donations for drones and Starlink, citing needs for the 7th Airborne Division in the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Internal Info-op). WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Siversk direction as of 18 AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Southern (Robotyne) direction as of 18 AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Kherson direction as of 18 AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Kharkiv direction as of 18 AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video claiming FSB prevented a second terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge, showing apprehension of an individual and dismantling of a vehicle with an explosive device. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Рыбарь (RF source) comments on the Crimean Bridge incident, stating 130 kg of explosives would not destroy the bridge but would cause casualties and media impact, with repairs possible within a month. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Analysis). ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a photo message of the 210th Assault Regiment pilots at work, emphasizing their continuous operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Morale/Info-op). Colonelcassad (RF source) comments on the Crimean Bridge incident, mirroring Rybar's assessment that the attack was for media impact rather than destruction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Analysis). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a general warning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 88 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) also reports 88/140 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed, and 0/4 Iskander-M missiles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). РБК-Україна reports RF launched 4 ballistic missiles and 140 drones overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports the Investigative Committee has qualified Ukraine's attempt to attack the Smolensk NPP as a terrorist act. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Север.Реалии (UA source) reports the General Prosecutor's Office recognized a German foundation aiding fascism victims as "undesirable." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України (UA source) provides a video report on enemy losses (personnel, UAVs, tanks, vehicles, motorcycles, EW/reconnaissance systems, artillery systems) inflicted by the brigade between 11-17 August 2025. This provides specific BDA from a UA unit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). Два майора (RF source) comments on Trump's actions as "forcing globalists and their narcotic puppet to peace" and anticipating provocations, an RF info-op. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь (RF source) posts on new Chinese military hardware, including hypersonic missiles, likely for general military interest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) reports RF attacked Ukraine with 4 Iskander-M missiles and 140 drones overnight, corroborating UA Air Force data. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RF source) amplifies The Guardian's report that Trump excluded the return of Crimea and Ukraine's NATO membership, pushing the RF narrative on peace terms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF info-op). Fighterbomber (RF source) mentions a new episode of "333" discussing topics, likely military-related content. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts multiple photo messages with a strong nationalist and anti-Russian message, emphasizing Ukrainian resilience and resolve against aggression, and criticizing "allies" for perceived weakness. Some images depict deceased RF soldiers, highlighting Ukrainian successes and the brutality of the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Syrskyi stating Russia's bravado about fighting for years is unfounded. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) posts a short overview of current events. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) posts a video of drones hitting enemy logistics and reconnaissance, indicating continued UA success in deep strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a general warning. This is a standard alert. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы reports about a messenger app and user photos, which is irrelevant to military intelligence. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) has posted multiple photo messages about the detention of members of a criminal organization in Kyiv and Odesa involved in cocaine delivery, including photos of seized firearms and cash. This indicates UA internal security and law enforcement activities, not directly military. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Law Enforcement). Colonelcassad (RF source) confirms 20 fatalities and 134 injured at the Ryazan gunpowder plant explosion. This updates the casualty count for the UA deep strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kotsnews (RF source) posts "Selectivity of Kyiv and volunteers from everywhere," which is a cryptic RF information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Басурин о главном (RF source) posts on Trump's statements on social media, amplifying RF's desired narrative regarding negotiations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). ТАСС (RF source) reports Russians confirming identity with biometrics for long-distance train travel, a domestic RF development unrelated to the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). ASTRA (UA source) reports on a BDSM party organizer sentenced for offending religious feelings, a domestic RF legal/social issue, irrelevant to military intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) posts on Trump advising Zelenskyy to "think about his fate," amplifying RF's desired narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Igor Artamonov (RF source) reports the cancellation of the "red level" UAV attack threat in Lipetsk. This is a positive development for civilian security in that region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia claims an Iskander-M missile system destroyed a cluster of AFU personnel and hardware at a UAV pre-launch site using a cluster-warhead missile. This claim includes aerial reconnaissance footage of the strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). This indicates RF efforts to target UA UAV launch capabilities. Два майора (RF source) posts video of civilian volunteers producing 3D-printed FPV anti-air drones, indicating Russian efforts to counter large UA attack/reconnaissance drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims Kyiv showed its first "Flamingo" ballistic missile with a range of 3000km (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). This is likely an RF information operation amplifying a potentially false or exaggerated UA claim to justify deep strikes. TASS reports on Putin's meeting with the acting governor of Rostov Oblast regarding agricultural issues, irrelevant to military operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). TASS (RF source) reports that a Ukrainian MP called for Zelenskyy's arrest in the US as a "terrorist" (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). TASS (RF source) reports that 23 bodies have been recovered from the Ryazan gunpowder plant explosion site (HIGH CONFIDENCE), updating the casualty count. TASS (RF source) reports on a call between Putin and Indian Prime Minister Modi regarding "Alaska talks" (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic Context). TASS (RF source) reports on recommendations for additional payments for medical graduates in state institutions, irrelevant to military intelligence. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukraine could continue importing gas from Azerbaijan. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Operatyvnyi ZSU (UA source) reports that US Vice President Vance will be present at the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborates Vance's presence at the meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS (RF source) reports on a lawsuit against a State Duma deputy, which is irrelevant to military operations. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Fighterbomber (RF source) posts a video celebrating aviation day, which is an internal RF morale operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS (RF source) reports on a phone call between Putin and Tajik President Rahmon emphasizing the importance of the Alaska meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts an image regarding Trump's stance on mail-in voting, a domestic US political issue. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted a video confirming the launch of "Flamingo" cruise missile production by the Ministry of Defense, Shmyhal. This indicates a significant Ukrainian capability development (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) has posted a photo message regarding a convicted military individual committing murder and intending to return to the front. This indicates internal RF personnel issues, potentially impacting morale and discipline (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) has posted a photo message with the caption "🇺🇸45 минут на Зелю🇺🇦," likely referencing the upcoming Trump-Zelenskyy meeting and implying a short or decisive meeting from the RF perspective. This is an information operation (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) has provided a video of Tu-95MS strategic bombers performing a planned flight over the Barents Sea. This is a routine strategic exercise but serves as a projection of RF power (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы reports on drivers with certain license plate numbers being forced to re-register their cars, which is a domestic RF issue, irrelevant to military operations (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/TIEDOTТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) (RF/Disinformation source) has posted a photo message with a quote in Finnish from "Baltic Voice" stating "We ourselves say when this war ends. Not the Russians, not the Americans, not even the Ukrainians, but we, the Latvians." This is a disinformation attempt to create disunity among NATO allies and project Latvian exceptionalism/control over the conflict's end (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (UA source) has posted a video on COVID-19 trends, which is irrelevant to military operations (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Операция Z (RF source) has posted a photo message claiming Trump is listening to Putin regarding canceling mail-in voting. This is an RF information operation attempting to show influence over US politics and undermine democratic processes (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted a photo message regarding details of the "Elastic" plant incident, which confirms ongoing repercussions from the UA deep strike (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports on a court decision in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is irrelevant to military operations (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). РБК-Україна (UA source) has posted a video of Yuliia Svyrydenko discussing a government resolution, which indicates internal Ukrainian administrative processes, not directly military (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Операция Z (RF source) has posted a photo message claiming the Ukrainian Foreign Minister responded rudely to Hungary's claims about an attack on an oil pipeline. This is an RF information operation to create friction between Ukraine and its European partners (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "High-precision strikes of the RF Armed Forces on key enemy objects." This is a general claim of successful RF strikes, likely used for propaganda (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). WarGonzo (RF source) posted a video showing an award ceremony for soldiers of the 44th Army Corps and interviews with a scout and an ATGM crew leader, confirming RF military morale and operational activity (HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo (RF source) has also posted a photo message claiming North Korean tank crews are preparing for combat in Ukraine. This is a significant claim, likely an RF information operation to project increased military cooperation and intimidate Ukraine/NATO, but requires strong corroboration (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, HIGH - Info-op). Mash на Донбассе (RF source) reports the evacuation of residents from Olkhivski Dachi near Stanitsia Luhanska due to fire from burning fields. This indicates environmental impacts on civilian areas near the front and potentially localized displacement (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump's intention to reform the US electoral system, irrelevant to military operations (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeast and southeast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs launched on Sumy Oblast, northern Kharkiv Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) posts video of YOKAI GROUP (UA) shooting down a new Russian V2U UAV, showing drone footage of a small airfield with other aircraft (likely drones). The downed UAV has distinctive Japanese Hinomaru roundels. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates a successful UA counter-UAS operation against a newly identified RF drone type. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) reports operational information as of 16:00, 18 AUG 25, regarding Russian invasion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) posts a photo message claiming successful UAV strike on Nikolske oil pumping station in Tambov Oblast, RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborate the UA strike on Nikolske oil pumping station in Tambov Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). TASS reports Putin and Zhaparov discussed the Alaska summit, indicating continued diplomatic efforts between Russia and Central Asian partners. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic). TASS reports Putin expressed condolences to Modi for floods in India. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) posts a video of a mobilized RF soldier calling on United Russia members to go to the front, indicating a domestic push for recruitment/motivation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts photo message claiming Trump will only meet Zelenskyy and refused European leaders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). This is likely an RF information operation to isolate Ukraine. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) amplifies CNN's report that Kyiv and Europe could be the main obstacle to peace in Ukraine, an RF info-op. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь (RF source) posts a photo message, "Nothing personal," which is an RF information operation often accompanying aggressive actions or statements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports former head of Russian MoD scientific center Rutko pleaded guilty to abuse of power but not bribery. This is an internal RF legal matter, not directly military. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Операция Z (RF source) reports Deputy Commander of "Sever" Grouping General Abachev was severely wounded in Kursk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts video showing drone pilots acting as infantry in combat, suggesting adaptive tactics and potentially infantry shortages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zelenskiy / Official (UA source) posts video message with General Kellogg, expressing gratitude for meeting and noting the serious format of Washington meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Diplomatic). РБК-Україна (UA source) posts video on Zelenskyy sharing details of meeting with Kellogg. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Diplomatic). ASTRA (UA source) advertises a VPN, irrelevant to military operations. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts recruitment appeal for assault and reconnaissance units on the South-Donetsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Recruitment). TASS posts photo message summarizing news, including "Ukraine holding peaceful residents of Kursk." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Старше Эдды (RF source) posts on free after-school programs, irrelevant to military operations. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Север.Реалии (UA source) reports on a fine for a car photo, irrelevant to military operations. (LOW CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) posts a photo message on Trump's statement about "fake media" criticizing even Russia's surrender. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA info-op, reporting on Trump). TASS reports Lula da Silva acknowledged importance of Putin's info on Alaska summit for "peace friends group in Ukraine." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts on a lawsuit between a State Duma deputy and an SVO veteran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Internal RF issue). Kotsnews (RF source) provided a video of Zelenskyy arriving in Washington in a t-shirt, used as an RF information operation to question his seriousness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RF source) amplified the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sibiga's statement that the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting is "decisive," while also displaying an image of Zelenskyy in a t-shirt in a formal setting, likely to create a contrasting, negative image. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump's intention to end the conflict in Ukraine, amplifying his statements before the meeting with Zelenskyy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Zelenskyy's statement on European peace after meeting General Kellogg, emphasizing collective security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) posted an image described as having a formal setting but content that I am restricted from analyzing, but from the context of other messages, it is likely related to the diplomatic talks and RF's attempt to undermine Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Colonelcassad (RF source) quotes Trump's lengthy social media post about his past successes in ending conflicts and criticizing "fake news" and "stupid people" for their views on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, indicating Trump's efforts to control the narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Басурин о главном (RF source) claims heat helps RF fighters evade thermal imagers and advance, promoting RF tactical ingenuity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) criticizes Zelenskyy's attire and mocks General Kellogg, further attempting to discredit Ukrainian diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) again reports Zelenskyy meeting Kellogg without a suit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) references a 2022 event where "Borukh Johnsonyuk" (likely Boris Johnson) allegedly prevented a "disgraceful agreement" with "Pypa" (likely a derogatory term for a figure associated with the conflict, possibly Putin), which is an RF information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia (RF source) confirms a Tu-95MS strategic bomber flight over the Barents Sea, a projection of strategic power. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) posted images of a Russian Orthodox church and a related caption about inappropriate activities, which is irrelevant to the conflict. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reported on an RF Z-blogger "Thirteenth" being allegedly captured, then claimed to have survived a UA missile strike, suggesting internal RF information manipulation or confusion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reported on Roscosmos's teleconference between the ISS and a cave, irrelevant to military operations. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posted the "first footage of the Flamingo cruise missile launch," confirming a significant new UA capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) reports on Ukrainian media "fakes" about Zelenskyy's plans to arrest Klitschko and forcibly change Kyiv's head, indicating RF attempts to sow internal discord. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports on a diplomatic appointment, irrelevant to the conflict. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Операция Z (RF source) repeats the claim that Trump is confident in resolving the war and "knows what he's doing." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto responded to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Sybiha regarding the pipeline attack, indicating ongoing diplomatic friction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims Zelenskyy stated it's impossible to surrender territories, with a derogatory comment about him. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) also amplifies Zelenskyy's statement on impossibility of territorial concessions, with a mocking tone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that the US Permanent Representative to NATO said security guarantees for Ukraine do not necessarily mean the deployment of US troops. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) reports on the electronic summons registry becoming operational. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts photo messages about a "national messenger MAX" becoming part of the "digital system" and broadcasting his channel there. This suggests RF is strengthening its internal digital infrastructure and possibly consolidating information channels for narrative control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo posts a video of Governor Solodov of Kamchatka discussing economic development and strategic interests in the Far East. This is not directly related to the Ukraine conflict but highlights Russia's long-term strategic focus and domestic development efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad posts a photo message with the caption ""Ляля" все. Жалеть не будем." The tactical analysis of the image is not provided, but the caption implies a successful RF strike or elimination of a target, possibly a significant one, with a celebratory tone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь posts an infographic titled "Вечные враги" (Eternal Enemies) detailing alleged connections between PMCs and British government entities. This is an RF information operation aiming to delegitimize Western involvement and portray UK actions as shadowy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы posts a video discussing ChatGPT's ability to predict marriage dates. This is irrelevant to military operations. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows battlefield drone footage with multiple explosions, attributed to Ukrainian unit "Black Swan" (Чорний Лебідь) and "225 OSPh." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates active UA combat operations and effective fire. Воин DV (RF source) video shows a drone strike on what appears to be a tank or armored vehicle, with smoke and debris indicating destruction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, but indicates ongoing tank warfare). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video shows a captured RF soldier describing his deployment to Ukraine for a promised apartment, claiming he didn't want to kill Ukrainians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is significant for UA information operations and demonstrates continued capture of RF personnel. TASS (RF source) reports European ambassadors in China may boycott a military parade due to Putin's presence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic). Rybar (RF source) has posted scanned documents titled "Licenses for flight" which are not directly military intelligence. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Rybar (RF source) posts a graphic titled "Delivery Service" with biographical info and a map of a grain export route, not directly military intelligence. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). ASTRA (UA source) posts photo and video messages showing the launch and alleged combat use of Ukraine's "Flamingo" missile, claiming it has already hit targets in RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Басурин о главном (RF source) posts a photo with the caption "Grab your stuff and run!" (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF morale/propaganda). Kotsnews (RF source) video shows a drone's first-person view during military operations, targeting military vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) posts photo message claiming US Army is moving to industrial-scale 3D printing for tens of thousands of UAVs per month. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts an article about Zelenskyy rejecting proposal to withdraw troops from Novorossiya. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) posts a photo message about a new Trump statement addressed to the "European landing force" supporting Zelenskyy in Washington. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) posts a video showing severely injured limbs, with a caption implying that wounded soldiers are left without evacuation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF internal criticism/morale). TASS reports Bloomberg claims US Department of Defense is sending over 4,000 Marines to maritime areas near Latin America to demonstrate force after Trump's statements about readiness to use military to fight drug cartels. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Geopolitical Context). TASS reports The Washington Post claims Europe still doesn't know what security guarantees for Ukraine Trump is ready to provide. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic Context). Rybar (RF source) posts a graphic artwork with the caption "Well, everyone ran, and so did we," likely as an information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims the assault on Konstantinovka has begun with the caption "Be good!". (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, LOW - Factual Basis). Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) appeals for donations for "motorized rifle units and special forces" that are "actively advancing," likely for the Pokrovsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Recruitment). DeepState (UA source) announces that the Ministry of Defense launched a unified platform for armament manufacturers in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Capability Development). Zelenskiy / Official (UA source) posts a video message emphasizing "reliable and lasting peace for Ukraine and all of Europe" and the need for "joint pressure" from the US and Europe on Putin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Diplomatic). Oleg Syniehubov (UA source) posts the same video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Diplomatic). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports European Commission Head, NATO Secretary General, and UK Prime Minister arrived at the White House. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic Context). TASS reports the White House asked Zelenskyy to wear a suit and tie for the meeting with Trump, citing WSJ. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic Context/Info-Op). Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts videos of European leaders arriving at the White House with derogatory captions regarding Zelenskyy and European support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Zelenskyy met with European leaders before Trump talks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic Context). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (UA source) posts Zelenskyy's video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Diplomatic Statement). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Axios claims Putin allegedly abandoned the demand to control all of Donetsk Oblast during Alaska talks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic Context). Новости Москвы (RF source) posts an irrelevant message about wasps. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a photo message claiming one hour left until the meeting with Trump and questions if expensive items will remain in place in the Oval Office, implying theft by the Ukrainian delegation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Два майора (RF source) reports Slovakia has stopped receiving Russian oil via the "Druzhba" pipeline, following Hungary. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Geopolitical Context). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the Ukrainian delegation for the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting includes Yermak, Umerov, Markarova, Kyslytsia, and Palisa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic Context). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts a video message discussing the use of a captured AK rifle vs. a Ukrainian AR, highlighting internal Ukrainian military discourse and equipment considerations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kotsnews (RF source) posts video showing European leaders (NATO SG Mark Rutte, EC Head Ursula von der Leyen, Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, UK PM Keir Starmer) arriving at the White House for Ukraine talks. The caption implies they are being "ushered in through the back door," aiming to portray a lack of diplomatic gravitas or legitimacy for these talks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). ТАСС (RF source) reports Russia calls on London to abandon "risky geopolitical gambits" and not interfere with Russian-American negotiators, indicating a continued RF diplomatic effort to isolate the UK and control the narrative around peace talks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RF source) video shows the arrival of European leaders at the White House for Ukraine talks, used as an RF information operation to emphasize their perceived "support" for Ukraine while potentially framing it as a coordinated effort against Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). ТАСС (RF source) states that any scenario involving NATO military contingents in Ukraine is unacceptable and fraught with uncontrolled escalation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is a clear RF red line and an attempt to deter direct NATO involvement. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts a photo message confirming the Ukrainian delegation's arrival at the White House. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) posts video of aerial support for assault operations, indicating continued RF drone integration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts a photo message confirming the Ukrainian delegation's arrival at the White House, including Yermak, Umerov, Palisa, and Markarova. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the President of France has arrived at the White House, further emphasizing the high-level diplomatic engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts a video of Zelenskyy's statement on seeking reliable and lasting peace, and the need for joint US-European pressure on Putin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) photo message confirms the Ukrainian delegation's arrival at the White House with the same personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts photos of additional European leaders (Macron, Merz, Stubb) arriving, with a caption emphasizing that "all Europeans are assembled," implying a united front against Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) advertises their presence on "MAX," likely a new social media platform, indicating RF efforts to expand information operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) posts photos from Washington, likely to comment on the ongoing diplomatic meetings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RF source) posts photos of the Ukrainian delegation with a large map at the White House, claiming they are preparing for talks. This is likely an RF information operation to emphasize territorial claims or negotiations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) reports on their source "Revenge of Good Will" knowing what is in the Ukrainian delegation's "bundle," implying they have intelligence on UA's negotiation strategy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a derogatory statement about Zelenskyy meeting "EU support squad" and receiving "final instructions," aiming to undermine UA's agency and portray them as Western puppets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video of RF drone operators from Buryatia operating Mavic 3 Pro drones on the South-Donetsk direction, indicating continued RF reliance on and use of commercial drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) highlights a discrepancy in RF claims about a captured "M113" APC, stating it's actually a Soviet GAZ-71. This exposes RF information operations and deception. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS (RF source) reports that mobilized Ukrainian military personnel are intentionally harming themselves to avoid combat, citing Russian security forces. This is a significant RF information operation to demoralize UA forces and question their will to fight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts a video claiming "Zelenskyy can destroy agreements" and that "peace is under threat," signaling an RF information operation to blame Ukraine for any failure in peace talks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Zelenskyy has arrived at the White House, meeting with President Trump (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ukraine's delegation has arrived at the White House for talks (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad claims the Ukrainian delegation brought a map to the White House (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, likely factual). Trump expressed confidence in tripartite talks (RF, US, UA) and that Russia wants to resolve the conflict (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Trump stated the war will end, promising a long-term peace (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Trump claimed peace can be agreed during combat operations, and that a ceasefire is not required (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Trump said Europe would be the "first line of defense" for Ukraine and that the US would participate (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports Trump stated "Today will either be a deal or no deal. If not, support for Ukraine stops." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA source reporting Trump). Zelenskyy stated Ukraine is ready for elections after peace is established (HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo (RF source) posts a video with derogatory commentary about Zelenskyy's attire (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). MoD Russia (RF source) video shows effective drone hunting operations (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Олег Синєгубов (UA source) posts a photo message celebrating Ukrainian leadership. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports that Marjorie Taylor Green's husband apologized to Zelenskyy for questioning his suit, indicating a shift in narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump stated a ceasefire is not being discussed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video of Trump and Zelenskyy meeting in the Oval Office. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video shows Trump stating he, Zelenskyy, and Putin all want the war to end. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) amplifies Trump's statement about long-term peace without ceasefire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports Google fined for information restriction (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump stating Ukraine will not be in NATO but will have security guarantees. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) mocks Zelenskyy's shoes and appearance (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Kotsnews (RF source) uses derogatory caption about Zelenskyy's attire and "nannies" (European leaders) (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump stated ceasefire is not required (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) reports Trump's statements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) confirms Trump's statement on NATO (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump open to freezing conflict (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports Zelenskyy on arms procurement from US (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump on peace during combat (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reiterates Trump on no ceasefire (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump on selling, not giving, weapons to Ukraine (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump's exaggerated claim of $350bn aid (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump on selling weapons (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) mocks Zelenskyy's election statement (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump on conditional support (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump on US troops (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump on US troops (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) mocks Zelenskyy's mood and Trump's NATO statement (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Военкор Котенок (RF source) continues Trump quotes (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump on NATO (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) reports Trump on NATO (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RF source) also reports Trump on NATO (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump on NATO paying for US weapons (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump on NATO defending Ukraine (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Zelenskyy on strong army for peace (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) reports on RF murder suspect gone to war zone (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Internal Issue). Два майора (RF source) photo message showing European leaders waiting (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump will call Putin (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump on NATO helping Ukraine (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump on Europe security guarantees (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump on liking both Ukrainians and Russians (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump on calling Putin (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reiterates Trump on peace and liking both sides (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы (RF source) reports Trump on Ukraine not in NATO (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Colonelcassad (RF source) video shows journalist questioning Zelenskyy's attire (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump's ambiguity on peace talks (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump on Putin's call (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video of Trump speaking about European leaders (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump on calling Putin (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump on liking Ukrainians and Russians (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) reports Trump and Zelenskyy gone to closed talks (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump on liking Ukrainians and Russians (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump on Europe security and public part ended (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump on Putin's call and tripartite talks (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) confirms journalists out, closed meeting (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) confirms closed meeting (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) photo message summarizes Trump statements (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) asks about Stepoe (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). РБК-Україна (UA source) video of press leaving Oval Office (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь (RF source) photo message "New is well forgotten old" (LOW CONFIDENCE - Cryptic). Colonelcassad (RF source) photo message summarizes Trump statements (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) mocks European leaders waiting (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Два майора (RF source) video shows Zaporizhzhia front activity while talks ongoing (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок (RF source) confirms open meeting ended (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) summarizes Trump statements (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) photo message "Sunset of Europe" (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Новости Москвы (RF source) on school holidays (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) photo message of European leaders waiting (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kotsnews (RF source) reports Trump fearful of "jinxing" (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Басурин о главном (RF source) photo message summarizes Trump statements (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RF source) reports Europe still unaware of Trump's security guarantees (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) photo message mocking Zelenskyy's expression and Trump's indifference (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) video on "classic" strikes (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) video of full Oval Office meeting (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports YouTube outage (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump praised Zelenskyy's suit (HIGH CONFIDENCE). DeepState (UA source) reports public part of talks ended (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash на Донбассе (RF source) video of Trump stating Ukraine will not be in NATO (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Два майора (RF source) mocking Zelenskyy's reception (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UA source) photo message on RF propaganda (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Info-Op). TASS (RF source) reports Richard Black stated he hopes Moscow and Washington can become partners. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic context, RF info-op). TASS reports the acting head of the RF Permanent Mission to the UN, Dmitry Polyansky, states Western countries are increasingly reluctant to convene UN Security Council meetings on Ukraine as Kyiv's "vile policies" become more obvious. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF info-op). TASS reports a massive Starlink outage in the US, citing Downdetector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF info-op/distraction). A joint statement after the closed Trump-Zelenskyy talks has been cancelled. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) and Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) confirm Trump and Zelenskyy completed their one-on-one meeting and proceeded to a larger meeting with European leaders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) confirms the one-hour duration of the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) posts photo message of the start of the joint meeting with European leaders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts photo message confirming the start of the joint meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) and Два майора (RF source) post photo messages with derogatory captions about Zelenskyy during the photo opportunity with European leaders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump stating they are working to stop the killings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump expressing confidence in a good call with Putin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump stating he discussed many topics with Zelenskyy and will try to organize a tripartite meeting with Putin to end the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump's belief in peace based on the Alaska summit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump stating Putin agreed to security guarantees for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) reports Trump's intention to call Putin and potentially meet. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump's confidence in Putin and Zelenskyy finding common ground. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) and Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) report Trump's statement about Putin agreeing to security guarantees and the need to discuss territory exchange based on current front lines. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) confirms Trump's statement on territory exchange. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) video shows Trump discussing a trilateral meeting to end the war and mentions the need to discuss territory exchange based on the current front lines. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump optimistic about an agreement to deter future aggression and Zelenskyy stating they had their best conversation yet. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump doesn't believe in the threat of further RF aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump's statement about a trilateral meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump's optimism for an agreement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports Zelenskyy discussed security guarantees with Trump. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Zelenskyy stating they will discuss territorial issues at the highest level during a trilateral meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Zelenskyy confirming discussion of sensitive territorial questions at the leader level with Trump's mediation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump's confidence in reaching an agreement, including security guarantees. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump's confidence in a trilateral meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump stating a thousand prisoners of war will be released immediately. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Zelenskyy announced discussions on security guarantees. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) video shows Trump discussing Putin's agreement on security guarantees, European burden-sharing, and territory exchange based on the current front line. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts video of Trump commenting on Merz's tan. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts video appealing for donations for drones and Starlink for the 7th Airborne Division. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump's confidence in reaching all agreements today. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kotsnews (RF source) notes no "breakthrough" yet. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Zelenskyy on discussing sensitive territorial issues at the leader level. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Zelenskyy on humanitarian issues including prisoner returns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RF source) posts video of Trump saying it's "sad to look at the map of Ukraine now." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump agreed to Zelenskyy's proposal to be present at a meeting with Putin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump's confidence in all agreements today. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Merz's desire for a ceasefire at the next meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of Trump discussing territory exchange and current front lines. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts video of Zelenskyy laughing after thanking for the map, with a mocking caption regarding his English. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump's statement to Merz that he finished 6 wars without a ceasefire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump stated he ended six wars without a ceasefire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Merz cannot imagine a next meeting without a ceasefire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump believes RF will no longer attack Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь (RF source) posts summary of August 18. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW INFORMATION: General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine has released operational information as of 22:00, 18 AUG 25, regarding the Russian invasion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). Premier of Italy Giorgia Meloni states security talks will start with a proposal similar to NATO Article 5. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Keir Starmer (UK PM) calls for reliable security guarantees for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Trump states that within a week or two, it will be clear if peace can be achieved or if fighting will continue. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Trump expresses confidence in releasing over a thousand POWs soon, possibly immediately. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF MoD has published its #DailyFigure graphic, likely showing claimed UA losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Macron proposes a four-way meeting including Putin, Trump, Zelenskyy, and European leaders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video of Trump stating Putin wants a deal for him. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Два майора (RF source) is conducting a fundraiser for "Frontline armor". (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Recruitment). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UA source) posts photo message "Damn clouds" with a map, potentially related to weather impacting drone operations or signals intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Meteorological/SIGINT). Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports 8 new "mopeds" (Shahed drones) near Dobropillya, heading towards Novodonetsk/Barvinkove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) photo message from "Mad'yar" claims Ukraine has completely destroyed the "Druzhba" oil pipeline. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). This is a significant claim regarding critical infrastructure. ТАСС (RF source) reports Russian stock market slowed decline amid US-EU-Ukraine leader meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Economic Context). Підрозділ Shadow (UA source) video shows successful drone strike on RF positions with thermal imaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows 3rd Assault Brigade drone operators striking RF positions in Kharkiv Oblast while peace talks are ongoing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a photo message showing financial transaction confirmation. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). РБК-Україна (UA source) photo message reports Trump and Zelenskyy discussed tripartite meeting first. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump wants to call Putin immediately while European leaders are in Oval Office. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) video reports no final press conference after Washington meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reiterates Trump's desire to call Putin while European leaders are present. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAV groups in Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) photo message with a political/propaganda theme. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Операция Z (RF source) reports Trump wants to call Putin immediately. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) photo message claims Defense Forces stopped work of "Druzhba" oil pipeline, citing "Mad'yar". (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump wants to call Putin while Zelenskyy and European leaders are in White House. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UA source) reports "Ghosts" likely disabled "Around Noise" (EW system) between Aug 6-11. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA SIGINT/EW). ASTRA (UA source) photo message of Trump and Zelenskyy before meeting with European leaders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump and Zelenskyy discussed tripartite meeting first. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) post: "Trump: I'll throw money at the Russos". (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA interpretation of Trump). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts photos from the open part of Trump's multilateral meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump wants to call Putin immediately. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts map of Druzhkivka/Konstantinovka directions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a greeting. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Рыбарь (RF source) posts chronological summary of special military operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) states Putin is the last person who wants the war to end. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Assessment). Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports overall drone situation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RF source) posts video of Finnish President stating they found a solution in 1944 and will find one in 2025. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast under bomb strike and UAV threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kotsnews (RF source) posts on aiding family of "Peremoga" Raevsky. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Support/Info-op). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video showing Trump and Zelenskyy meeting, with caption about "rain" and miscalculation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Zelenskyy will give Fox News interview after Trump meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) photo of Trump and Zelenskyy, captioned "Striving for peace". (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video of Zelenskyy Fox News interview. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) photo message claiming "no too difficult questions" in Ukrainian settlement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op).
Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
- No new significant weather or environmental factors beyond previously noted challenging terrain (mud-covered vehicles), localized forest fires, and strong winds affecting drone operations. The large industrial fires in Syzran and the explosion at the Ryazan gunpowder workshop, and the attack on the Azot chemical plant will generate significant smoke and potential environmental contamination, impacting local air quality and visibility. RF KAB strike on Novoslobidska community, Sumy Oblast, around 22:00, injured a 57-year-old woman, indicating continued localized environmental impact from RF air strikes (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The missile strike on Sumy and damage to an educational institution contributes to localized environmental impact (debris, structural damage) (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The RF strikes on Odesa targeting a Nova Poshta terminal (logistics/civilian) and a 330kv power substation in Usatove (critical infrastructure) will result in significant localized damage, fire, and potential power outages, further impacting environmental and civilian conditions (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The destruction visible in photos from Kharkiv Regional Military Administration confirms significant environmental damage in residential areas due to RF strikes (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Igor Artamonov (RF source) reports a "red level" UAV attack threat declared for the city of Lipetsk and several municipal districts, indicating direct environmental impact from active air defense operations and potential debris fall (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This red level threat has since been canceled. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS (RF source) reports temporary restrictions on flights at Tambov and Penza airports (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates a response to potential aerial threats or security concerns, which could include UAVs, and may lead to localized environmental impacts from air defense activities or flight diversions. The "Carpet" plan in Penza Oblast was activated and subsequently cancelled, indicating a transient environmental impact from air defense measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Renewed Shahed strikes on Kharkiv have caused a fire in a residential building with risk of collapse, increasing humanitarian and environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The confirmed fatalities (seven) and 23 injured in Kharkiv due to RF drone strikes represents a severe humanitarian impact and will exacerbate environmental concerns due to widespread debris and damaged infrastructure, requiring significant clean-up and reconstruction efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The missile strike on an educational institution in Sumy further contributes to public anger. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Igor Artamonov reports the cancellation of the "yellow level" air danger alert for Lipetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The missile strike on Pavlohrad will cause localized damage and potential environmental contamination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The confirmed 24 fatalities at the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast indicate a severe environmental impact from the UA deep strike, including potential chemical contamination and significant debris. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The RF drone strike on a fuel and energy infrastructure object in Odesa suburbs will cause significant localized environmental damage due to fire and potential spills. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The explosion of a car in Kyiv, whether accidental or intentional, will contribute to localized environmental impact (debris, potential hazardous materials). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The car explosion in Kyiv will cause localized environmental impact (debris, potential hazardous materials). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ballistic missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia will cause localized damage and potential environmental contamination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The impacts in Zaporizhzhia, with two confirmed strikes, indicate localized environmental damage (debris, potential structural instability, and possibly fire) due to RF targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The severe damage to civilian residential buildings in Kharkiv, including the confirmed fatalities and injured, underscores a catastrophic humanitarian and environmental impact requiring extensive cleanup, rescue, and reconstruction efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The confirmed 24 fatalities at the Ryazan gunpowder plant explosion underscore the significant environmental damage from the UA deep strike, including potential chemical contamination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The significant fire at the SOCAR oil depot in Odesa will cause localized air pollution and potential water contamination if firefighting runoff is not contained. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The reported fire in Olkhivski Dachi near Stanitsia Luhanska from burning fields indicates immediate environmental impact and civilian displacement (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The reported heat helping RF forces evade UA thermal imagers on the Zaporizhzhia front indicates a localized environmental factor exploited by the enemy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim). The severe fire in Kamyshnoye and Gerasimovka (LPR) causing power outages indicates continued environmental impact and disruption of civilian services due to conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The video from МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники showing severe combat injuries highlights the direct human and environmental impact of combat, including potential for prolonged medical care needs and waste. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Further reports of fire and smoke in a forest area in Russia-occupied Ukraine suggest continued environmental damage and combat operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW INFORMATION: The report of Poltava and its community being without electricity confirms immediate environmental/infrastructure impact from recent strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UA source) photo message "Damn clouds" could indicate weather conditions affecting drone operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
- Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske Axis): RF forces (elements of 98th VDV Division) maintain foothold in eastern Kanal microdistrict, conducting battalion-sized mechanized assaults. UA units executed tactical withdrawal to prepared defensive positions west of the initial line of contact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Clashes persist near Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, Oleksandra-Kalynove, and Pleschiyivka. UA 93rd Brigade conducting clearance operations in Hruzke and Vesele (Dobropillya area) with tank and robotic support (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF 85th OMCBR operating in Soledar direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF 36th OA forces (37th OMCBR, 336th Marine Brigade) pressing towards Maliyivka, Shevchenko, and Yanvarske (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). UA Azov Brigade actively repelling RF attacks in Katerynivka, Toretsk direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF striking Myrnohrad and Ivanpillia with FAB bombs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim). RF MoD video confirms aerial strikes on urban areas in Donetsk People's Republic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) video shows a drone strike on an RF motorcyclist in Kurakhove direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims the assault on Konstantinovka has begun. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, LOW - Factual Basis without corroboration). Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UA source) video indicates UA targeting of RF ground elements with precision strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" successfully conducted an offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts, reinforcing UA counter-offensive posture. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video showing captured Russian soldiers indicates successful UA ground operations and intelligence gathering. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). An Iskander-M strike on Sloviansk has been reported. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts photo message claiming RF forces are advancing on Konstantinovka direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) video confirms Grad MLRS fire and subsequent strikes from RF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts map of the Druzhkivka/Konstantinovka directions (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Підрозділ Shadow (UA source) video shows successful drone strike on RF positions (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovskoe Direction): RF claims "big breakthrough" and liberation of Iskra. RF advanced up to 1.5km towards Sokil from Ocheretyne. UA forces cleared Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz (1st Azov Corps) (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UA forces repelled enemy near Rubizhne, Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Vesele, Vilne, Shakhove, Nykanorivka, and Sukhetske. UA Commander Syrskyi reports successful UA advances in Dobropillya and Pokrovsk directions (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports RF 'Vostok' grouping advanced into Ivankiv, Poltavka, and Zeleny Gay (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Ukrainian National Guard relocating units from Kharkiv to Pokrovsk direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF Tsentr Group flamethrower units reportedly active near Krasnoarmeysk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). RF artillery reconnaissance seeking "night bird" drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF claiming positions between Dobropillya and Kucherov Yar. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim). Intense fighting reported for Udachne and Pervoye Maya. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) is collecting funds for "motorized rifle units and special forces" that are "actively advancing." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). A large map of Ukraine was observed in the Oval Office during the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting, indicating territorial discussions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Rybar (RF source) posts a tactical map for the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd direction as of 18 AUG 25 (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim).
- Luhansk Oblast (Siversk Direction): RF forces broke through UA defense lines in Lyman district (RF claim). General Staff reports clashes near Hryhorivka, Serebryanka, Vyyimka, Fedorivka, Pereyizne and towards Siversk. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Kolodezi and Voronoye. UA 63rd Brigade utilized FPV drones to neutralize RF tank east of Lyman (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Fire in Kamyshnoye and Gerasimovka (LPR) causes power outages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: RF artillery and FPV drone attacks on Nikopol. RF claims "liberation" of Voronoye. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected near Pavlohrad (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF struck Pavlohrad with missile overnight (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Serhiy Lysak reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol, Marhanets, and Pokrovske communities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports Regiment "SKALA" conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW INFORMATION: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of strike UAVs on the east of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, cours Павлоград (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Kharkiv Oblast: RF claims improved position near Krasny Perviy. Increased RF EW emissions (40%) detected (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Continued RF reconnaissance UAVs. General Staff reports clashes near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Khatnye and Fyholivka. UA border guards liquidated 5 enemy targets including a tank (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UA 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade pilots conducting effective drone reconnaissance for artillery and strike drones in enemy rear. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video showing serial impacts in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video confirms UA drone strikes on an RF camp in Kharkiv Oblast, including dugouts, shelters, and a fuel/lubricant depot. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts battle maps of the Kharkiv direction, indicating continued RF focus. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Олег Синєгубов (UA source) posts a photo message celebrating Ukrainian leadership. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a video of civilian structures being transported by trucks at night, which may indicate logistical movement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video shows a formal gathering of international dignitaries, including Zelenskyy, relevant to Kharkiv's strategic importance (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows 3rd Assault Brigade drone operators striking RF positions in Kharkiv Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast under bomb strike and threat of strike UAVs (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Kherson Oblast: UA reports destruction of RF ammunition depot and four vehicles on left bank. RF claims Lancet strike destroyed UA M-777 and Bogdana SPG on right bank. UA forces repelled 4-6 RF assaults (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad reports RF operations on the Kherson direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia (RF source) video shows artillerymen of the 49th Army hitting fortifications on the right bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim).
- Odesa Oblast: RF continues mass "Shahed" drone attacks, targeting Nova Poshta terminal and SOCAR oil depot (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UA Southern Defense Forces destroyed 24 Shahed UAVs (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Romania expressing desire to expand joint Black Sea patrolling with Bulgaria and Turkey. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo videos confirm significant damage to SOCAR oil depot. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO video shows reconnaissance/surveillance mission over what appears to be defensive positions or fortifications. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RF conducting 578 strikes on 14 settlements. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ballistic missile attacks on Zaporizhzhia city causing casualties (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UA reports RF concentrating troops for a large-scale offensive in Zaporizhzhia (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF 7th Airborne Division reportedly needs donations for drones and Starlink, suggesting sustainment issues in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UA 44th Separate Artillery Brigade "Bogdana" reportedly successfully destroying enemy equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF is operating a captured US M113 APC with RF and US flags in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration confirms working preemptively against RF breakthrough intentions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF drone footage from Zaporizhzhia front shows drone with munition, an aerial view of a trench with activity, and a Ukrainian flag near a destroyed vehicle/trench. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Zaporizhzhia Oblast is a leader in drone procurement among all Ukrainian regions, indicating ongoing efforts to enhance drone capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Damage assessment in Zaporizhzhia indicates 11 multi-story buildings, 10 private houses, and non-residential buildings damaged or destroyed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). An air raid alert has been declared for Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to ballistic missile threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports 33 injured in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) declares an air raid alert (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UA source) reports a threat of ballistic weapons use (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) reports on current combat activity on the Zaporizhzhia front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a video appealing for donations for drones and Starlink for the 7th Airborne Division in the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating ongoing equipment needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Kupyansk Axis: Previous reports indicated a decisive shift of RF main effort with the capture of Ivanivka. RF continues strikes on settlements. UA reports successful tank sorties and drone operations against RF personnel and equipment. Commander of "Achilles" Regiment Fedorenko (UA source) reports RF plans to occupy Kupyansk by August 24. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports the first mechanized attack by RF on the left bank of Kupyansk in a long time, involving 2 tanks, 3 MT-LBs, and ~40 personnel, which was repelled with destruction of enemy equipment. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Kupyansk direction as of 18 AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). STERNENKO (UA source) reports that 905 drones have been delivered to the Defense Forces in the last two days, with some intended for the Kupyansk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports a new "singing" RF prisoner was taken under Muravka, Donetsk Oblast, identified as Vladimir Sergeevich from the 35th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). TASS reports the head of Kharkiv VGA Ganchev claims Russian forces are encircling Kupyansk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, LOW - Factual Basis without corroboration).
- Sumy Oblast: РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian forces actively destroying the enemy in Sumy Oblast, pushing back Russians near Oleksiivka and Yunakivka. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of a destroyed UA M577 command post vehicle in Sumy Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing an RF truck with ammunition epically destroyed by a Ukrainian drone on the way to Sumy Oblast. TASS reports that RF forces have improved their tactical position near Yunakovka, Sumy Oblast, and occupied new positions. Операция Z (RF source) thermal imagery video titled "Спецназ «Анвар» и ВДВ массово сжигают бронтехнику врага, поддерживая наступление на Сумы" claims successful destruction of UA armored vehicles by Spetsnaz "Anvar" and VDV units supporting an offensive on Sumy (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim). This indicates a potential new RF offensive axis or significant fixing operation in the Sumy direction. РБК-Україна reports a 57-year-old woman injured by a KAB strike on Novoslobidska community, Sumy Oblast, around 22:00 (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new UAVs on northern Sumy Oblast, moving southwest (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports a missile strike on Sumy around 22:40, damaging a building of an educational institution (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted photo messages confirming a missile strike on an educational institution in Sumy late last night, showing significant damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка (RF source) posts a mocking caption suggesting RF strikes or activity in Shostka, Sumy Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF reconnaissance UAVs are operating near Putyvl, Sumy Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Sumy, claiming something "self-detonated" among UA forces (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim, LOW - Factual basis of claimed intent/cause). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports a series of explosions in Sumy (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 new RF UAVs detected east of Bilopillya, moving southwest (HIGH CONFIDENCE). KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Sumy Oblast moving southwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна reports continued RF attacks on Sumy, with explosions confirming strikes on civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad shares video footage from the 68th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th Army, Western Military District, showing a military pickup truck engaging enemy forces with mounted weaponry. This footage is from Sumy Oblast and indicates active RF offensive/reconnaissance operations in the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy district, with assets engaged to shoot them down. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS (RF source) claims that Ukrainian Armed Forces command in Sumy Oblast has committed all resources to outflank RF forces in Yunakivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video showing two individuals in a wooded area with abandoned cars and a quad bike, claiming it depicts RF forces marauding in border villages of Kursk Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim of RF Maraduing). Kotsnews (RF source) posts video with caption "Syrsky: Kursk - best result among all major operations," which is an RF information operation likely taking UA statements out of context (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). MoD Russia (RF source) video claiming a BM-21 Grad MLRS crew eliminated a manpower cluster of the AFU in Sumy region (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts video of a Lancet loitering munition preparation and strike, stating "Sumy direction: 'Iksavody VDV' are working!", indicating continued RF air/drone support for ground operations in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF) claims the Sumy State University was hit by a "Flamingo missile" (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, LOW - Factual Basis of Weapon Type). Два майора (RF source) posts video showing an RF FPV drone strike with the caption "Sumy direction: 'Iksavody VDV' are working!" indicating continued RF drone operations in Sumy (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy strike UAV on northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF activity on the Sumy direction, with an aerial view of an exploding vehicle, suggesting active engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) asserts that RF forces have been defeated in Sumy Oblast, suffering significant losses and being repelled beyond the state border after an unsuccessful attempt to advance in the area of Stepne and Novokostiantynivka. UA forces are reportedly continuing offensive actions in the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a video of drone-guided artillery or air strikes on a forested area with multiple explosions, indicating active combat and effective UA fire (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) amplifies Syrsky's (misquoted) statements regarding high casualties in Sumy direction, likely to demoralize UA forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts a photo message showing activity on the Eastern Direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports a severe injury to an RF General in Kursk Oblast from a HIMARS strike, which could impact RF C2 in that direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, but likely factual due to details and official confirmation). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video from local residents showing a visual confirmation of RF "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on Sumy State University. The video shows explosions and fires at night. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This corroborates previous UA reports of the strike. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAV threat to Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS (RF source) reports RF military expert Yan Gagin claiming AFU unsuccessfully counterattack in Sumy Oblast and suffer huge losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). MoD Russia (RF source) video shows Uragan MLRS crews eliminating AFU armored vehicles and personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). MoD Russia (RF source) video shows T-80BVM tanks of the Sever Group of Forces eliminating AFU hardware and manpower in Sumy region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). RF has again attacked civilian infrastructure in Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast moving south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports groups of enemy UAVs on the north, east, and south of Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). An explosion was heard in Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Overall Frontline: RF continues employment of FPV drone swarms and Lancet loitering munitions, with a reported 20% increase in Lancet strikes in the last 24 hours. UA inflicted significant personnel losses (1010 RF personnel in the last 24h, total 276,300 since year start). UA deep strikes into RF territory include the Syzran Oil Refinery (Samara Oblast), Olya seaport (Astrakhan Oblast), the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast, and a drone attack on Azot chemical plant in Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol Krai. 61 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed by UA. Prisoner exchange of 84 servicemen conducted. TASS reports Putin congratulated the Russian Geographical Society on its 180th anniversary (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Rybar (RF source) posts a photo message which is likely an analytical overview or summary of current military developments from an RF perspective (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports on cyber activity against Russian organizations, finding over 180 infected systems, 49 still controlled by one hacking group (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS also reports Mikhail Ulyanov stating that the West should provide Russia with the same reliable security guarantees as Ukraine (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z reports that Ukraine fears a verbal altercation between Zelenskyy and Trump at their next meeting, citing Washington Post (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF info-op). Новости Москвы reports "viewing TikToks and Reels is five times more dangerous than alcohol" (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) posts a video of two black kittens and a hedgehog (22:39:09Z) (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Igor Artamonov (RF source) reports a yellow alert "air danger regime" declared for all of Lipetsk Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS quotes a Serbian sniper, Dejan Beric, stating that sniper scouts no longer conduct foot reconnaissance behind enemy lines, as drones now perform these tasks (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports a "Carpet" plan has been introduced in Penza Oblast, suggesting an air defense alert due to potential aerial threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The "Carpet" plan in Penza Oblast has been canceled, as reported by the governor, indicating a de-escalation of the immediate air threat in that region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video message from Sumy Oblast, showing military vehicle movement through forested areas and along dirt roads, and one instance of what looks like an engagement (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates active RF operations, including reconnaissance or direct engagement, in Sumy Oblast. TASS reports Polyansky's statement that the settlement process in Ukraine must consider the opinion of 7 million Ukrainians who sought refuge in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Trump claims Zelenskyy can end the conflict by renouncing Crimea and NATO membership. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zelenskiy / Official reports arrival in Washington for meeting with President Trump and European leaders, stating desire for a quick and lasting peace, contrasting with previous forced concessions. Notes successes in Donetsk and Sumy regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports on the "Crocus" terrorist attack, mentioning a co-conspirator convicted in Tajikistan for calls to change the constitutional system. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Rybar (RF source) has posted an analytical overview of the current military developments from an RF perspective, titled "Chronicle of the SVO for August 16-17." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) also posted a summary of events for the morning of August 18, 2025. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that the Tambov airport has lifted restrictions on aircraft reception and departure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports that Russia expects constructive relations with the new authorities of Bolivia regardless of the presidential election results. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) and Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) report estimated general combat losses of enemy personnel (+940 in the last 24h) and equipment (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA claim). This aligns with previous General Staff reports. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts images of new Chinese anti-ship hypersonic missiles (YJ-15, YJ-17, YJ-19, YJ-20) from a parade rehearsal in Beijing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This is not directly related to current Ukraine operations but is an observation of a global military development. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy is scheduled for 20:15 Kyiv time and will last one hour. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF MoD claims 23 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF and annexed Crimea overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim) Fighterbomber (RF source) posts an image of historical Soviet propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS (RF source) and ASTRA (UA source, citing Kremlin media) report that the FSB prevented a second terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge and detained co-conspirators. The FSB claims it was the second such attempt this year. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim) Kotsnews (RF source) also reports on the thwarted Crimean Bridge attacks, confirming the widespread dissemination of this narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim) TASS (RF source) reports 20 fatalities at an incident at the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This confirms the significant impact of the earlier reported UA deep strike on this facility. Igor Artamonov (RF source) reports a red level UAV attack threat declared for Lipetsk, Lipetsk MO, Gryazinsky MR, Dobrinsky MR, Khlevensky MR, Usmansky MR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This indicates a significant and widespread air defense alert in central Russia. TASS (RF source) reports the Russian government plans to increase demand for housing and affordability of mortgages for preferential categories of citizens. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This is a domestic Russian news item, likely aimed at demonstrating government concern for social welfare. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video footage of sniper pairs of the 299th Yaroslavl Regiment engaged in combat operations against both enemy personnel and aerial targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This indicates continued RF counter-UAV efforts by ground units. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) and Два майора (RF source) are amplifying the FSB claims of the prevented Crimean Bridge terror attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim) TASS reports that Zelenskyy is ready to make concessions and agree to a peaceful settlement of the conflict along the current front line, citing FT. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF info-op) WarGonzo and Kotsnews confirm the FSB reports of a prevented terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim) Басурин о главном (RF source) also amplifies the FSB claim of a thwarted Crimean Bridge terror attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim) РБК-Україна reports an explosion of a car painted to look like a military vehicle in Kyiv, with one casualty. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Два майора (RF source) posts a video of an APC moving across open terrain, with soldiers riding on top and a Russian flag displayed. This depicts RF personnel and equipment in transit, likely for movement or positioning of forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) posts a photo message advertising a bot for mobilization news. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Internal Info-op). WarGonzo (RF source) provides a series of tactical maps for the morning of 18 AUG 25, covering various directions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts a photo message promoting his information channel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Internal Info-op). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a technical diagram/illustration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» (UA source) posts a photo message of their brigade emblem. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Internal Info-op). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a video appeal for donations for drones and Starlink, citing needs for the 7th Airborne Division in the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Internal Info-op). WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Siversk direction as of 18 AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Southern (Robotyne) direction as of 18 AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Kherson direction as of 18 AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Kharkiv direction as of 18 AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video claiming FSB prevented a second terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge, showing apprehension of an individual and dismantling of a vehicle with an explosive device. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Рыбарь (RF source) comments on the Crimean Bridge incident, stating 130 kg of explosives would not destroy the bridge but would cause casualties and media impact, with repairs possible within a month. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Analysis). ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a photo message of the 210th Assault Regiment pilots at work, emphasizing their continuous operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Morale/Info-op). Colonelcassad (RF source) comments on the Crimean Bridge incident, mirroring Rybar's assessment that the attack was for media impact rather than destruction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Analysis). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a general warning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 88 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) also reports 88/140 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed, and 0/4 Iskander-M missiles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). РБК-Україна reports RF launched 4 ballistic missiles and 140 drones overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports the Investigative Committee has qualified Ukraine's attempt to attack the Smolensk NPP as a terrorist act. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Север.Реалии (UA source) reports the General Prosecutor's Office recognized a German foundation aiding fascism victims as "undesirable." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України (UA source) provides a video report on enemy losses (personnel, UAVs, tanks, vehicles, motorcycles, EW/reconnaissance systems, artillery systems) inflicted by the brigade between 11-17 August 2025. This provides specific BDA from a UA unit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). Два майора (RF source) comments on Trump's actions as "forcing globalists and their narcotic puppet to peace" and anticipating provocations, an RF info-op. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь (RF source) posts on new Chinese military hardware, including hypersonic missiles, likely for general military interest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) reports RF attacked Ukraine with 4 Iskander-M missiles and 140 drones overnight, corroborating UA Air Force data. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RF source) amplifies The Guardian's report that Trump excluded the return of Crimea and Ukraine's NATO membership, pushing the RF narrative on peace terms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF info-op). Fighterbomber (RF source) mentions a new episode of "333" discussing topics, likely military-related content. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts multiple photo messages with a strong nationalist and anti-Russian message, emphasizing Ukrainian resilience and resolve against aggression, and criticizing "allies" for perceived weakness. Some images depict deceased RF soldiers, highlighting Ukrainian successes and the brutality of the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Syrskyi stating Russia's bravado about fighting for years is unfounded. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) posts a short overview of current events. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) posts a video of drones hitting enemy logistics and reconnaissance, indicating continued UA success in deep strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a general warning. This is a standard alert. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы reports about a messenger app and user photos, which is irrelevant to military intelligence. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) has posted multiple photo messages about the detention of members of a criminal organization in Kyiv and Odesa involved in cocaine delivery, including photos of seized firearms and cash. This indicates UA internal security and law enforcement activities, not directly military. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Law Enforcement). Colonelcassad (RF source) confirms 20 fatalities and 134 injured at the Ryazan gunpowder plant explosion. This updates the casualty count for the UA deep strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kotsnews (RF source) posts "Selectivity of Kyiv and volunteers from everywhere," which is a cryptic RF information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Басурин о главном (RF source) posts on Trump's statements on social media, amplifying RF's desired narrative regarding negotiations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). ТАСС (RF source) reports Russians confirming identity with biometrics for long-distance train travel, a domestic RF development unrelated to the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). ASTRA (UA source) reports on a BDSM party organizer sentenced for offending religious feelings, a domestic RF legal/social issue, irrelevant to military intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) posts on Trump advising Zelenskyy to "think about his fate," amplifying RF's desired narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Igor Artamonov (RF source) reports the cancellation of the "red level" UAV attack threat in Lipetsk. This is a positive development for civilian security in that region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia claims an Iskander-M missile system destroyed a cluster of AFU personnel and hardware at a UAV pre-launch site using a cluster-warhead missile. This claim includes aerial reconnaissance footage of the strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). This indicates RF efforts to target UA UAV launch capabilities. Два майора (RF source) posts video of civilian volunteers producing 3D-printed FPV anti-air drones, indicating Russian efforts to counter large UA attack/reconnaissance drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims Kyiv showed its first "Flamingo" ballistic missile with a range of 3000km (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). This is likely an RF information operation amplifying a potentially false or exaggerated UA claim to justify deep strikes. TASS reports on Putin's meeting with the acting governor of Rostov Oblast regarding agricultural issues, irrelevant to military operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). TASS (RF source) reports that a Ukrainian MP called for Zelenskyy's arrest in the US as a "terrorist" (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). TASS (RF source) reports that 23 bodies have been recovered from the Ryazan gunpowder plant explosion site (HIGH CONFIDENCE), updating the casualty count. TASS (RF source) reports on a call between Putin and Indian Prime Minister Modi regarding "Alaska talks" (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic Context). TASS (RF source) reports on recommendations for additional payments for medical graduates in state institutions, irrelevant to military intelligence. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukraine could continue importing gas from Azerbaijan. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Operatyvnyi ZSU (UA source) reports that US Vice President Vance will be present at the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborates Vance's presence at the meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS (RF source) reports on a lawsuit against a State Duma deputy, which is irrelevant to military operations. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Fighterbomber (RF source) posts a video celebrating aviation day, which is an internal RF morale operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS (RF source) reports on a phone call between Putin and Tajik President Rahmon emphasizing the importance of the Alaska meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts an image regarding Trump's stance on mail-in voting, a domestic US political issue. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted a video confirming the launch of "Flamingo" cruise missile production by the Ministry of Defense, Shmyhal. This indicates a significant Ukrainian capability development (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) has posted a photo message regarding a convicted military individual committing murder and intending to return to the front. This indicates internal RF personnel issues, potentially impacting morale and discipline (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) has posted a photo message with the caption "🇺🇸45 минут на Зелю🇺🇦," likely referencing the upcoming Trump-Zelenskyy meeting and implying a short or decisive meeting from the RF perspective. This is an information operation (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) has provided a video of Tu-95MS strategic bombers performing a planned flight over the Barents Sea. This is a routine strategic exercise but serves as a projection of RF power (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы reports on drivers with certain license plate numbers being forced to re-register their cars, which is a domestic RF issue, irrelevant to military operations (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/TIEDOTТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) (RF/Disinformation source) has posted a photo message with a quote in Finnish from "Baltic Voice" stating "We ourselves say when this war ends. Not the Russians, not the Americans, not even the Ukrainians, but we, the Latvians." This is a disinformation attempt to create disunity among NATO allies and project Latvian exceptionalism/control over the conflict's end (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (UA source) has posted a video on COVID-19 trends, which is irrelevant to military operations (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Операция Z (RF source) has posted a photo message claiming Trump is listening to Putin regarding canceling mail-in voting. This is an RF information operation attempting to show influence over US politics and undermine democratic processes (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted a photo message regarding details of the "Elastic" plant incident, which confirms ongoing repercussions from the UA deep strike (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports on a court decision in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is irrelevant to military operations (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). РБК-Україна (UA source) has posted a video of Yuliia Svyrydenko discussing a government resolution, which indicates internal Ukrainian administrative processes, not directly military (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Операция Z (RF source) has posted a photo message claiming the Ukrainian Foreign Minister responded rudely to Hungary's claims about an attack on an oil pipeline. This is an RF information operation to create friction between Ukraine and its European partners (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "High-precision strikes of the RF Armed Forces on key enemy objects." This is a general claim of successful RF strikes, likely used for propaganda (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). WarGonzo (RF source) posted a video showing an award ceremony for soldiers of the 44th Army Corps and interviews with a scout and an ATGM crew leader, confirming RF military morale and operational activity (HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo (RF source) has also posted a photo message claiming North Korean tank crews are preparing for combat in Ukraine. This is a significant claim, likely an RF information operation to project increased military cooperation and intimidate Ukraine/NATO, but requires strong corroboration (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, HIGH - Info-op). Mash на Донбассе (RF source) reports the evacuation of residents from Olkhivski Dachi near Stanitsia Luhanska due to fire from burning fields. This indicates environmental impacts on civilian areas near the front and potentially localized displacement (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump's intention to reform the US electoral system, irrelevant to military operations (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeast and southeast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs launched on Sumy Oblast, northern Kharkiv Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) posts video of YOKAI GROUP (UA) shooting down a new Russian V2U UAV, showing drone footage of a small airfield with other aircraft (likely drones). The downed UAV has distinctive Japanese Hinomaru roundels. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates a successful UA counter-UAS operation against a newly identified RF drone type. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) reports operational information as of 16:00, 18 AUG 25, regarding Russian invasion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) posts a photo message claiming successful UAV strike on Nikolske oil pumping station in Tambov Oblast, RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborate the UA strike on Nikolske oil pumping station in Tambov Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). TASS reports Putin and Zhaparov discussed the Alaska summit, indicating continued diplomatic efforts between Russia and Central Asian partners. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic). TASS reports Putin expressed condolences to Modi for floods in India. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) posts a video of a mobilized RF soldier calling on United Russia members to go to the front, indicating a domestic push for recruitment/motivation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts photo message claiming Trump will only meet Zelenskyy and refused European leaders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). This is likely an RF information operation to isolate Ukraine. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) amplifies CNN's report that Kyiv and Europe could be the main obstacle to peace in Ukraine, an RF info-op. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь (RF source) posts a photo message, "Nothing personal," which is an RF information operation often accompanying aggressive actions or statements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports former head of Russian MoD scientific center Rutko pleaded guilty to abuse of power but not bribery. This is an internal RF legal matter, not directly military. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Операция Z (RF source) reports Deputy Commander of "Sever" Grouping General Abachev was severely wounded in Kursk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts video showing drone pilots acting as infantry in combat, suggesting adaptive tactics and potentially infantry shortages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zelenskiy / Official (UA source) posts video message with General Kellogg, expressing gratitude for meeting and noting the serious format of Washington meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Diplomatic). РБК-Україна (UA source) posts video on Zelenskyy sharing details of meeting with Kellogg. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Diplomatic). ASTRA (UA source) advertises a VPN, irrelevant to military operations. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts recruitment appeal for assault and reconnaissance units on the South-Donetsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Recruitment). TASS posts photo message summarizing news, including "Ukraine holding peaceful residents of Kursk." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Старше Эдды (RF source) posts on free after-school programs, irrelevant to military operations. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Север.Реалии (UA source) reports on a fine for a car photo, irrelevant to military operations. (LOW CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) posts a photo message on Trump's statement about "fake media" criticizing even Russia's surrender. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA info-op, reporting on Trump). TASS reports Lula da Silva acknowledged importance of Putin's info on Alaska summit for "peace friends group in Ukraine." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts on a lawsuit between a State Duma deputy and an SVO veteran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Internal RF issue). Kotsnews (RF source) provided a video of Zelenskyy arriving in Washington in a t-shirt, used as an RF information operation to question his seriousness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RF source) amplified the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sibiga's statement that the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting is "decisive," while also displaying an image of Zelenskyy in a t-shirt in a formal setting, likely to create a contrasting, negative image. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump's intention to end the conflict in Ukraine, amplifying his statements before the meeting with Zelenskyy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Zelenskyy's statement on European peace after meeting General Kellogg, emphasizing collective security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) posted an image described as having a formal setting but content that I am restricted from analyzing, but from the context of other messages, it is likely related to the diplomatic talks and RF's attempt to undermine Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Colonelcassad (RF source) quotes Trump's lengthy social media post about his past successes in ending conflicts and criticizing "fake news" and "stupid people" for their views on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, indicating Trump's efforts to control the narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Басурин о главном (RF source) claims heat helps RF fighters evade thermal imagers and advance, promoting RF tactical ingenuity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) criticizes Zelenskyy's attire and mocks General Kellogg, further attempting to discredit Ukrainian diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) again reports Zelenskyy meeting Kellogg without a suit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) references a 2022 event where "Borukh Johnsonyuk" (likely Boris Johnson) allegedly prevented a "disgraceful agreement" with "Pypa" (likely a derogatory term for a figure associated with the conflict, possibly Putin), which is an RF information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia (RF source) confirms a Tu-95MS strategic bomber flight over the Barents Sea, a projection of strategic power. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) posted images of a Russian Orthodox church and a related caption about inappropriate activities, which is irrelevant to the conflict. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reported on an RF Z-blogger "Thirteenth" being allegedly captured, then claimed to have survived a UA missile strike, suggesting internal RF information manipulation or confusion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reported on Roscosmos's teleconference between the ISS and a cave, irrelevant to military operations. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posted the "first footage of the Flamingo cruise missile launch," confirming a significant new UA capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) reports on Ukrainian media "fakes" about Zelenskyy's plans to arrest Klitschko and forcibly change Kyiv's head, indicating RF attempts to sow internal discord. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports on a diplomatic appointment, irrelevant to the conflict. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Операция Z (RF source) repeats the claim that Trump is confident in resolving the war and "knows what he's doing." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto responded to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Sybiha regarding the pipeline attack, indicating ongoing diplomatic friction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims Zelenskyy stated it's impossible to surrender territories, with a derogatory comment about him. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) also amplifies Zelenskyy's statement on impossibility of territorial concessions, with a mocking tone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that the US Permanent Representative to NATO said security guarantees for Ukraine do not necessarily mean the deployment of US troops. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) reports on the electronic summons registry becoming operational. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts photo messages about a "national messenger MAX" becoming part of the "digital system" and broadcasting his channel there. This suggests RF is strengthening its internal digital infrastructure and possibly consolidating information channels for narrative control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo posts a video of Governor Solodov of Kamchatka discussing economic development and strategic interests in the Far East. This is not directly related to the Ukraine conflict but highlights Russia's long-term strategic focus and domestic development efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad posts a photo message with the caption ""Ляля" все. Жалеть не будем." The tactical analysis of the image is not provided, but the caption implies a successful RF strike or elimination of a target, possibly a significant one, with a celebratory tone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь posts an infographic titled "Вечные враги" (Eternal Enemies) detailing alleged connections between PMCs and British government entities. This is an RF information operation aiming to delegitimize Western involvement and portray UK actions as shadowy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы posts a video discussing ChatGPT's ability to predict marriage dates. This is irrelevant to military operations. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows battlefield drone footage with multiple explosions, attributed to Ukrainian unit "Black Swan" (Чорний Лебідь) and "225 OSPh." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates active UA combat operations and effective fire. Воин DV (RF source) video shows a drone strike on what appears to be a tank or armored vehicle, with smoke and debris indicating destruction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, but indicates ongoing tank warfare). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video shows a captured RF soldier describing his deployment to Ukraine for a promised apartment, claiming he didn't want to kill Ukrainians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is significant for UA information operations and demonstrates continued capture of RF personnel. TASS (RF source) reports European ambassadors in China may boycott a military parade due to Putin's presence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic). Rybar (RF source) has posted scanned documents titled "Licenses for flight" which are not directly military intelligence. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Rybar (RF source) posts a graphic titled "Delivery Service" with biographical info and a map of a grain export route, not directly military intelligence. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). ASTRA (UA source) posts photo and video messages showing the launch and alleged combat use of Ukraine's "Flamingo" missile, claiming it has already hit targets in RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Басурин о главном (RF source) posts a photo with the caption "Grab your stuff and run!" (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF morale/propaganda). Kotsnews (RF source) video shows a drone's first-person view during military operations, targeting military vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) posts photo message claiming US Army is moving to industrial-scale 3D printing for tens of thousands of UAVs per month. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts an article about Zelenskyy rejecting proposal to withdraw troops from Novorossiya. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) posts a photo message about a new Trump statement addressed to the "European landing force" supporting Zelenskyy in Washington. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) posts a video showing severely injured limbs, with a caption implying that wounded soldiers are left without evacuation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF internal criticism/morale). TASS reports Bloomberg claims US Department of Defense is sending over 4,000 Marines to maritime areas near Latin America to demonstrate force after Trump's statements about readiness to use military to fight drug cartels. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Geopolitical Context). TASS reports The Washington Post claims Europe still doesn't know what security guarantees for Ukraine Trump is ready to provide. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic Context). Rybar (RF source) posts a graphic artwork with the caption "Well, everyone ran, and so did we," likely as an information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims the assault on Konstantinovka has begun with the caption "Be good!". (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, LOW - Factual Basis). Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) appeals for donations for "motorized rifle units and special forces" that are "actively advancing," likely for the Pokrovsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Recruitment). DeepState (UA source) announces that the Ministry of Defense launched a unified platform for armament manufacturers in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Capability Development). Zelenskiy / Official (UA source) posts a video message emphasizing "reliable and lasting peace for Ukraine and all of Europe" and the need for "joint pressure" from the US and Europe on Putin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Diplomatic). Oleg Syniehubov (UA source) posts the same video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Diplomatic). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports European Commission Head, NATO Secretary General, and UK Prime Minister arrived at the White House. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic Context). TASS reports the White House asked Zelenskyy to wear a suit and tie for the meeting with Trump, citing WSJ. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic Context/Info-Op). Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts videos of European leaders arriving at the White House with derogatory captions regarding Zelenskyy and European support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Zelenskyy met with European leaders before Trump talks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic Context). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (UA source) posts Zelenskyy's video message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Diplomatic Statement). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Axios claims Putin allegedly abandoned the demand to control all of Donetsk Oblast during Alaska talks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic Context). Новости Москвы (RF source) posts an irrelevant message about wasps. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a photo message claiming one hour left until the meeting with Trump and questions if expensive items will remain in place in the Oval Office, implying theft by the Ukrainian delegation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Два майора (RF source) reports Slovakia has stopped receiving Russian oil via the "Druzhba" pipeline, following Hungary. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Geopolitical Context). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the Ukrainian delegation for the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting includes Yermak, Umerov, Markarova, Kyslytsia, and Palisa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic Context). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts a video message discussing the use of a captured AK rifle vs. a Ukrainian AR, highlighting internal Ukrainian military discourse and equipment considerations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kotsnews (RF source) posts video showing European leaders (NATO SG Mark Rutte, EC Head Ursula von der Leyen, Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, UK PM Keir Starmer) arriving at the White House for Ukraine talks. The caption implies they are being "ushered in through the back door," aiming to portray a lack of diplomatic gravitas or legitimacy for these talks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). ТАСС (RF source) reports Russia calls on London to abandon "risky geopolitical gambits" and not interfere with Russian-American negotiators, indicating a continued RF diplomatic effort to isolate the UK and control the narrative around peace talks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RF source) video shows the arrival of European leaders at the White House for Ukraine talks, used as an RF information operation to emphasize their perceived "support" for Ukraine while potentially framing it as a coordinated effort against Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). ТАСС (RF source) states that any scenario involving NATO military contingents in Ukraine is unacceptable and fraught with uncontrolled escalation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is a clear RF red line and an attempt to deter direct NATO involvement. РБК-Україна (UA source) posts a photo message confirming the Ukrainian delegation's arrival at the White House. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) posts video of aerial support for assault operations, indicating continued RF drone integration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts a photo message confirming the Ukrainian delegation's arrival at the White House, including Yermak, Umerov, Palisa, and Markarova. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the President of France has arrived at the White House, further emphasizing the high-level diplomatic engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts a video of Zelenskyy's statement on seeking reliable and lasting peace, and the need for joint US-European pressure on Putin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) photo message confirms the Ukrainian delegation's arrival at the White House with the same personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts photos of additional European leaders (Macron, Merz, Stubb) arriving, with a caption emphasizing that "all Europeans are assembled," implying a united front against Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) advertises their presence on "MAX," likely a new social media platform, indicating RF efforts to expand information operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) posts photos from Washington, likely to comment on the ongoing diplomatic meetings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RF source) posts photos of the Ukrainian delegation with a large map at the White House, claiming they are preparing for talks. This is likely an RF information operation to emphasize territorial claims or negotiations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) reports on their source "Revenge of Good Will" knowing what is in the Ukrainian delegation's "bundle," implying they have intelligence on UA's negotiation strategy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a derogatory statement about Zelenskyy meeting "EU support squad" and receiving "final instructions," aiming to undermine UA's agency and portray them as Western puppets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video of RF drone operators from Buryatia operating Mavic 3 Pro drones on the South-Donetsk direction, indicating continued RF reliance on and use of commercial drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) highlights a discrepancy in RF claims about a captured "M113" APC, stating it's actually a Soviet GAZ-71. This exposes RF information operations and deception. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS (RF source) reports that mobilized Ukrainian military personnel are intentionally harming themselves to avoid combat, citing Russian security forces. This is a significant RF information operation to demoralize UA forces and question their will to fight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts a video claiming "Zelenskyy can destroy agreements" and that "peace is under threat," signaling an RF information operation to blame Ukraine for any failure in peace talks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Zelenskyy has arrived at the White House, meeting with President Trump (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ukraine's delegation has arrived at the White House for talks (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad claims the Ukrainian delegation brought a map to the White House (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, likely factual). Trump expressed confidence in tripartite talks (RF, US, UA) and that Russia wants to resolve the conflict (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Trump stated the war will end, promising a long-term peace (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Trump claimed peace can be agreed during combat operations, and that a ceasefire is not required (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Trump said Europe would be the "first line of defense" for Ukraine and that the US would participate (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports Trump stated "Today will either be a deal or no deal. If not, support for Ukraine stops." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA source reporting Trump). Zelenskyy stated Ukraine is ready for elections after peace is established (HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo (RF source) posts a video with derogatory commentary about Zelenskyy's attire (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). MoD Russia (RF source) video shows effective drone hunting operations (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Олег Синєгубов (UA source) posts a photo message celebrating Ukrainian leadership. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports that Marjorie Taylor Green's husband apologized to Zelenskyy for questioning his suit, indicating a shift in narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump stated a ceasefire is not being discussed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video of Trump and Zelenskyy meeting in the Oval Office. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video shows Trump stating he, Zelenskyy, and Putin all want the war to end. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) amplifies Trump's statement about long-term peace without ceasefire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports Google fined for information restriction (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump stating Ukraine will not be in NATO but will have security guarantees. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) mocks Zelenskyy's shoes and appearance (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Kotsnews (RF source) uses derogatory caption about Zelenskyy's attire and "nannies" (European leaders) (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump stated ceasefire is not required (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) reports Trump's statements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) confirms Trump's statement on NATO (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump open to freezing conflict (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports Zelenskyy on arms procurement from US (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump on peace during combat (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reiterates Trump on no ceasefire (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump on selling, not giving, weapons to Ukraine (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump's exaggerated claim of $350bn aid (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump on selling weapons (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) mocks Zelenskyy's election statement (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump on conditional support (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump on US troops (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump on US troops (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) mocks Zelenskyy's mood and Trump's NATO statement (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Военкор Котенок (RF source) continues Trump quotes (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump on NATO (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) reports Trump on NATO (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RF source) also reports Trump on NATO (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump on NATO paying for US weapons (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump on NATO defending Ukraine (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Zelenskyy on strong army for peace (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) reports on RF murder suspect gone to war zone (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Internal Issue). Два майора (RF source) photo message showing European leaders waiting (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump will call Putin (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump on NATO helping Ukraine (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump on Europe security guarantees (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump on liking both Ukrainians and Russians (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump on calling Putin (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reiterates Trump on peace and liking both sides (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы (RF source) reports Trump on Ukraine not in NATO (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Colonelcassad (RF source) video shows journalist questioning Zelenskyy's attire (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump's ambiguity on peace talks (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump on Putin's call (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video of Trump speaking about European leaders (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump on calling Putin (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump on liking Ukrainians and Russians (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) reports Trump and Zelenskyy gone to closed talks (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump on liking Ukrainians and Russians (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump on Europe security and public part ended (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump on Putin's call and tripartite talks (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) confirms journalists out, closed meeting (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) confirms closed meeting (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) photo message summarizes Trump statements (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) asks about Stepoe (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). РБК-Україна (UA source) video of press leaving Oval Office (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь (RF source) photo message "New is well forgotten old" (LOW CONFIDENCE - Cryptic). Colonelcassad (RF source) photo message summarizes Trump statements (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) mocks European leaders waiting (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Два майора (RF source) video shows Zaporizhzhia front activity while talks ongoing (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок (RF source) confirms open meeting ended (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) summarizes Trump statements (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) photo message "Sunset of Europe" (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Новости Москвы (RF source) on school holidays (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) photo message of European leaders waiting (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kotsnews (RF source) reports Trump fearful of "jinxing" (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Басурин о главном (RF source) photo message summarizes Trump statements (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RF source) reports Europe still unaware of Trump's security guarantees (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) photo message mocking Zelenskyy's expression and Trump's indifference (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) video on "classic" strikes (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) video of full Oval Office meeting (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports YouTube outage (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump praised Zelenskyy's suit (HIGH CONFIDENCE). DeepState (UA source) reports public part of talks ended (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash на Донбассе (RF source) video of Trump stating Ukraine will not be in NATO (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Два майора (RF source) mocking Zelenskyy's reception (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op). Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UA source) photo message on RF propaganda (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Info-Op). TASS (RF source) reports Richard Black stated he hopes Moscow and Washington can become partners. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic context, RF info-op). TASS reports the acting head of the RF Permanent Mission to the UN, Dmitry Polyansky, states Western countries are increasingly reluctant to convene UN Security Council meetings on Ukraine as Kyiv's "vile policies" becomes more obvious. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF info-op). TASS reports a massive Starlink outage in the US, citing Downdetector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF info-op/distraction). A joint statement after the closed Trump-Zelenskyy talks has been cancelled. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) and Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) confirm Trump and Zelenskyy completed their one-on-one meeting and proceeded to a larger meeting with European leaders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) confirms the one-hour duration of the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) posts photo message of the start of the joint meeting with European leaders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts photo message confirming the start of the joint meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) and Два майора (RF source) post photo messages with derogatory captions about Zelenskyy during the photo opportunity with European leaders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump stating they are working to stop the killings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump expressing confidence in a good call with Putin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump stating he discussed many topics with Zelenskyy and will try to organize a tripartite meeting with Putin to end the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump's belief in peace based on the Alaska summit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump stating Putin agreed to security guarantees for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) reports Trump's intention to call Putin and potentially meet. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump's confidence in Putin and Zelenskyy finding common ground. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) and Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) report Trump's statement about Putin agreeing to security guarantees and the need to discuss territory exchange based on current front lines. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) confirms Trump's statement on territory exchange. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) video shows Trump discussing a trilateral meeting to end the war and mentions the need to discuss territory exchange based on the current front lines. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump optimistic about an agreement to deter future aggression and Zelenskyy stating they had their best conversation yet. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump doesn't believe in the threat of further RF aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump's statement about a trilateral meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Trump's optimism for an agreement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports Zelenskyy discussed security guarantees with Trump. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Zelenskyy stating they will discuss territorial issues at the highest level during a trilateral meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Zelenskyy confirming discussion of sensitive territorial questions at the leader level with Trump's mediation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump's confidence in reaching an agreement, including security guarantees. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports Trump's confidence in a trilateral meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump stating a thousand prisoners of war will be released immediately. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Zelenskyy announced discussions on security guarantees. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) video shows Trump discussing Putin's agreement on security guarantees, European burden-sharing, and territory exchange based on the current front line. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts video of Trump commenting on Merz's tan. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts video appealing for donations for drones and Starlink for the 7th Airborne Division. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump's confidence in reaching all agreements today. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kotsnews (RF source) notes no "breakthrough" yet. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Zelenskyy on discussing sensitive territorial issues at the leader level. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Zelenskyy on humanitarian issues including prisoner returns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RF source) posts video of Trump saying it's "sad to look at the map of Ukraine now." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports Trump agreed to Zelenskyy's proposal to be present at a meeting with Putin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump's confidence in all agreements today. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Merz's desire for a ceasefire at the next meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of Trump discussing territory exchange and current front lines. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts video of Zelenskyy laughing after thanking for the map, with a mocking caption regarding his English. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump's statement to Merz that he finished 6 wars without a ceasefire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) reports Trump stated he ended six wars without a ceasefire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Merz cannot imagine a next meeting without a ceasefire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump believes RF will no longer attack Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь (RF source) posts summary of August 18. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW INFORMATION: General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine has released operational information as of 22:00, 18 AUG 25, regarding the Russian invasion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). Premier of Italy Giorgia Meloni states security talks will start with a proposal similar to NATO Article 5. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Keir Starmer (UK PM) calls for reliable security guarantees for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Trump states that within a week or two, it will be clear if peace can be achieved or if fighting will continue. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Trump expresses confidence in releasing over a thousand POWs soon, possibly immediately. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF MoD has published its #DailyFigure graphic, likely showing claimed UA losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Macron proposes a four-way meeting including Putin, Trump, Zelenskyy, and European leaders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video of Trump stating Putin wants a deal for him. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Два майора (RF source) is conducting a fundraiser for "Frontline armor". (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Recruitment). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UA source) posts photo message "Damn clouds" with a map, potentially related to weather impacting drone operations or signals intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Meteorological/SIGINT). Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports 8 new "mopeds" (Shahed drones) near Dobropillya, heading towards Novodonetsk/Barvinkove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) photo message from "Mad'yar" claims Ukraine has completely destroyed the "Druzhba" oil pipeline. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). This is a significant claim regarding critical infrastructure. ТАСС (RF source) reports Russian stock market slowed decline amid US-EU-Ukraine leader meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Economic Context). Підрозділ Shadow (UA source) video shows successful drone strike on RF positions with thermal imaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video shows 3rd Assault Brigade drone operators striking RF positions in Kharkiv Oblast while peace talks are ongoing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a photo message showing financial transaction confirmation. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). РБК-Україна (UA source) photo message reports Trump and Zelenskyy discussed tripartite meeting first. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump wants to call Putin immediately while European leaders are in Oval Office. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) video reports no final press conference after Washington meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reiterates Trump's desire to call Putin while European leaders are present. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAV groups in Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) photo message with a political/propaganda theme. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Операция Z (RF source) reports Trump wants to call Putin immediately. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) photo message claims Defense Forces stopped work of "Druzhba" oil pipeline, citing "Mad'yar". (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). STERNENKO (UA source) reports Trump wants to call Putin while Zelenskyy and European leaders are in White House. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UA source) reports "Ghosts" likely disabled "Around Noise" (EW system) between Aug 6-11. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA SIGINT/EW). ASTRA (UA source) photo message of Trump and Zelenskyy before meeting with European leaders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump and Zelenskyy discussed tripartite meeting first. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) post: "Trump: I'll throw money at the Russos". (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA interpretation of Trump). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts photos from the open part of Trump's multilateral meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Trump wants to call Putin immediately. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts map of Druzhkivka/Konstantinovka directions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a greeting. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Рыбарь (RF source) posts chronological summary of special military operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) states Putin is the last person who wants the war to end. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Assessment). Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports overall drone situation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RF source) posts video of Finnish President stating they found a solution in 1944 and will find one in 2025. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). STERNENKO (UA source) reports Kharkiv Oblast under bomb strike and UAV threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kotsnews (RF source) posts on aiding family of "Peremoga" Raevsky. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Support/Info-op). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) video showing Trump and Zelenskyy meeting, with caption about "rain" and miscalculation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports Zelenskyy will give Fox News interview after Trump meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) photo of Trump and Zelenskyy, captioned "Striving for peace". (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video of Zelenskyy Fox News interview. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) photo message claiming "no too difficult questions" in Ukrainian settlement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capabilities:
- Ground Forces: RF maintains capability for battalion-sized mechanized assaults, particularly by airborne (VDV) and motorized rifle brigades, despite recent setbacks. They continue to employ tanks and BMPs in offensive operations. Evidence of continued RF 36th OA (37th OMCBR, 336th Marine Brigade) and 85th OMCBR operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Air Support: RF tactical aviation continues to employ KAB-series glide bombs extensively in Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Missile and UAV Strikes: RF continues to conduct mass "Shahed" drone attacks and ballistic missile strikes (Iskander-M), targeting critical infrastructure (oil depots, substations), military objectives (command posts, UAV launch sites), and civilian areas. Reports indicate a significant number of UAVs (140) launched overnight, with 88 intercepted by UA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF claims of shooting down 23 UA UAVs over RF and annexed Crimea overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Artillery & MLRS: RF continues widespread artillery and MLRS fire, including Grad MLRS. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- EW Capabilities: Increased EW emissions detected in Kharkiv Oblast (40% increase), targeting UA reconnaissance UAVs. A new, significant EW system is active near Krasnohorivka. This indicates an escalating RF effort to blind UA ISR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Drone Warfare: RF heavily relies on FPV drone swarms and Lancet loitering munitions, with a reported 20% increase in Lancet strikes. They are actively seeking "night bird" drones for artillery reconnaissance. Civilian volunteers are producing 3D-printed FPV anti-air drones for RF, indicating efforts to counter UA drone superiority. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Naval Assets: Russian heavy nuclear-powered missile cruiser "Admiral Nakhimov" (Project 11442M) has commenced sea trials in Severodvinsk. While not directly involved in Ukraine operations, this represents a significant naval modernization and projection of long-term Russian military power. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Intentions:
- Offensive Operations: RF intends to continue localized offensive operations, particularly along the Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske and Pokrovsk directions, aiming to consolidate existing gains and potentially capture key logistics hubs like Konstantinovka and Krasnoarmeysk. RF aims to occupy Kupyansk by August 24. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Deep Strikes: RF intends to continue deep strikes against Ukrainian military, energy, and logistical infrastructure, and civilian areas, likely to degrade UA capabilities and civilian morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Information Warfare: RF continues robust information operations to demoralize UA forces, sow discord among allies, discredit UA leadership, and control the narrative around peace talks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Claims of preventing Crimean Bridge attacks and using derogatory language towards Zelenskyy are prominent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Counter-UAS: RF is intensifying efforts to counter UA UAVs through EW and dedicated anti-drone FPV units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Courses of Action (COA):
- COA 1 (Main Effort - Donetsk): RF forces will continue to press mechanized assaults on the Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske axis and intensify efforts to break through in the Pokrovsk direction, potentially attempting to encircle UA forces or seize Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- COA 2 (Support by Fire & Deep Strikes): RF will maintain high tempo of KAB, missile, and drone strikes against UA rear areas, supply lines, and critical infrastructure across all operational zones, specifically targeting areas in Kharkiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- COA 3 (Info-Ops & Diplomatic Maneuvers): RF will intensify information operations to manipulate Western and domestic perceptions of the conflict and leverage diplomatic engagements to push for a settlement favorable to Russia, particularly emphasizing territorial concessions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

Increased Use of Ground Robotics: UA 93rd Brigade utilizing ground robotic systems with machine guns in clearance operations, indicating increased automation in infantry support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RF Motorcycle Assaults: RF forces attempted an assault on Pokrovsk utilizing motorcycles, indicating an adaptation for rapid, light infiltration, though unsuccessful. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Focus on EW Degradation: The significant increase in RF EW emissions in Kharkiv and the confirmed new EW system near Krasnohorivka indicate a concerted effort to counter UA's ISR advantage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RF Re-flagging Captured Equipment: Confirmed operation of a captured US M113 APC with RF and US flags in Zaporizhzhia, a clear deception tactic for propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UA Flamingo Missile Launch: UA confirms the launch of "Flamingo" cruise missile production and alleged combat use against RF targets, representing a significant long-range strike capability development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UA Drone Pilots as Infantry: Reports of UA drone pilots acting as infantry in combat suggest adaptive tactics and potential infantry shortages, but also a multi-skilled force. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
New RF UAV Type: YOKAI GROUP (UA) shot down a new Russian V2U UAV with distinctive Japanese Hinomaru roundels, indicating a new, potentially foreign-sourced, RF drone type entering service. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF:
- Ammunition & Fuel: UA deep strikes on RF oil refineries (Syzran), seaports (Olya), and gunpowder workshops ("Elastic" in Ryazan, Azot chemical plant) aim to degrade RF logistics and ammunition production. The Ryazan plant explosion caused 24 fatalities, confirming significant impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Drone Procurement: RF is appealing for donations for drones and Starlink for units like the 7th Airborne Division in Zaporizhzhia, indicating ongoing sustainment needs and reliance on non-state procurement for certain equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Civilian volunteers are 3D-printing anti-air FPV drones, suggesting a distributed, rapid prototyping approach to counter-UAS. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Personnel: Reports of RF mobilized personnel intentionally harming themselves to avoid combat, if accurate, indicate potential morale and personnel sustainment issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-Op).
UA:
- Logistics: UA claimed complete destruction of the "Druzhba" oil pipeline (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). If true, this is a significant disruption to RF energy export infrastructure and may impact fuel availability in certain areas.
- Drone Procurement: UA reports 905 drones delivered in the last two days, some for Kupyansk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast is a leader in drone procurement, highlighting strong UA focus on drone warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Domestic Production: UA Ministry of Defense launched a unified platform for armament manufacturers and confirmed "Flamingo" cruise missile production. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is critical for long-term sustainment.
- Foreign Aid: Trump's statements about selling, not giving, weapons to Ukraine, and Europe being the "first line of defense," imply a potential shift in aid modalities and burden-sharing, which could impact UA resource requirements and constraints going forward. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2: Previous SIGINT indicated poor artillery coordination and tactical-level command friction within the 1st Army Corps during offensive operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The reported severe injury to RF General Abachev (Deputy Commander of "Sever" Grouping) in Kursk Oblast could impact RF C2 in that direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF continues to strengthen internal digital infrastructure (e.g., "national messenger MAX") to consolidate information channels for narrative control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UA C2: UA General Staff and regional military administrations continue to provide timely operational updates and maintain effective command and control, as evidenced by coordinated defensive and counter-offensive actions and rapid response to threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ukrainian diplomatic efforts in Washington indicate coordinated high-level engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Defensive Posture: UA forces maintain strong defensive positions, particularly in Chasiv Yar, despite sustained RF assaults. They are capable of tactical withdrawals to prepared lines. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Counter-Offensive Capability: UA forces are actively conducting successful localized counter-offensive operations, clearing settlements in Dobropillya and Pokrovsk directions (Hruzke, Vesele, Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, Zolotyi Kolodyaz) and on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts (Regiment "SKALA"). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UA General Staff asserts RF forces were defeated and repelled from Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Drone Warfare Integration: UA continues to effectively integrate drones for reconnaissance, strike (FPV, munition drops), and counter-DRG operations. UA 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade pilots demonstrate effective drone reconnaissance for artillery and strike drones deep in enemy rear. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Artillery & Counter-Battery: UA's 44th Separate Artillery Brigade "Bogdana" is successfully destroying enemy equipment, indicating effective counter-battery capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Personnel Readiness: While UA Commander Syrskyi noted challenges, successful counter-offensives and captures of RF prisoners indicate continued combat effectiveness. Reports of drone pilots acting as infantry suggest flexibility and potential infantry shortages, requiring adaptive strategies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
New Capabilities: Confirmed launch of "Flamingo" cruise missile production by Ministry of Defense, capable of long-range strikes (allegedly 3000km, though this range needs verification). This indicates a significant upgrade to UA's deep strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Air Defense: Southern Defense Forces reported destroying 24 Shahed UAVs in the past day, demonstrating effective air defense against drone attacks. UA Air Force also reported intercepting 88/140 enemy UAVs and 0/4 Iskander-M missiles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:
- Territorial Gains/Clearance: Liberation of Hruzke, Vesele (Dobropillya area), Rubizhne, Novovodyane, Petrivka, and Zolotyi Kolodyaz in Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Successful offensive operations on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF forces repelled beyond the state border in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Enemy Losses: Significant RF personnel losses (1010 in 24h) and equipment destruction across multiple axes. Successful destruction of RF tanks, APCs, motorcycles, EW systems, and ammunition depots through drone and artillery strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Deep Strikes: Successful UAV strikes on Syzran Oil Refinery, Olya seaport, "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan (24 confirmed fatalities), Azot chemical plant, and Nikolske oil pumping station in Tambov Oblast (UA claim). Claimed destruction of "Druzhba" oil pipeline. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). These are significant strategic and logistical blows to RF.
- Counter-UAS: Successful downing of a new Russian V2U UAV, indicating effective counter-UAS capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Prisoner Capture: Capture of RF prisoners in Dobropillya and Toretsk directions, providing valuable intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Setbacks:
- Continued RF Pressure: RF continues to exert significant pressure and limited advances in Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk directions, threatening key GLOCs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Sustained RF Strikes: High volume of RF missile and drone strikes on civilian and infrastructure targets, causing significant casualties (7 fatalities, 23+ injured in Kharkiv; 3 dead, 33 injured in Zaporizhzhia) and damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- EW Degradation: Increased RF EW activity is degrading UA ISR capabilities, particularly for UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Infrastructure Damage: Power outages in Poltava and communities due to strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

Resources Required:
- Counter-EW Capabilities: Urgent need for robust counter-EW systems to neutralize new RF systems, particularly near Krasnohorivka, to preserve ISR and C2.
- Air Defense Systems: Continued high demand for air defense systems and interceptor munitions to counter sustained RF missile and drone attacks.
- Artillery Ammunition: High tempo of combat operations implies continued high consumption of artillery ammunition.
- Drones & Anti-Drone Systems: Continued supply of FPV, reconnaissance, and strike drones, alongside anti-drone capabilities to maintain battlefield advantage.
- Infantry Reinforcements: Reports of "lack of infantry" in Pokrovsk direction suggest a critical need for additional ground combat personnel.
- Reconstruction Aid: Significant aid for reconstruction of civilian infrastructure and humanitarian support for affected populations.
Constraints:
- Aid Modality Shift: Potential shift in US aid from "giving" to "selling" weapons, and increased burden-sharing with Europe, could create financial constraints for Ukraine in the long term. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Logistical Challenges: While UA is making strides in domestic production, sustained combat operations still require external logistical support.
- Personnel Availability: Maintaining sufficient combat-ready personnel for both offensive and defensive operations across a vast front remains a challenge.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF Propaganda:
- Victory Narratives: RF continues to disseminate claims of "liberation" of Ukrainian settlements (Chasiv Yar, Kolodezi, Voronoye, Iskra), despite contradictory UA reports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Exaggerated UA Losses: RF consistently inflates UA personnel and equipment losses (e.g., 4,500 personnel losses in Luhansk direction, claims of wiping out strongholds). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Demonizing UA: RF accuses UA forces of civilian targeting (e.g., in Lisichansk, Iskra), likely to deflect from their own actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Weakening Western Resolve: RF amplifies reports of potential cuts in Western aid, internal divisions among allies, and portrays Zelenskyy as a "narcotic puppet" or unserious leader, particularly during the Washington summit, to undermine international support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Undermining Peace Efforts: RF frames Trump's statements to push a narrative that Zelenskyy is resistant to peace or that Europe is the obstacle, and claims Putin desires peace. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Internal RF Messaging: Appeals for donations for military units and promoting a "national messenger MAX" suggest efforts to maintain public support and control information domestically. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Reports on convicted criminals going to the front indicate internal issues, but their public dissemination could be a deterrence or normalization tactic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Deception/False Flag: FSB claims of preventing a second Crimean Bridge terrorist attack are likely false flag operations or exaggerations to justify RF aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The re-flagging of captured UA M113 with US and RF flags is a clear deception tactic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Claims of North Korean tank crews in Ukraine (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) aim to project increased military cooperation and intimidate.
UA Counter-Narratives:
- Confirmation of Gains: UA actively reports successful counter-offensive actions and liberation of settlements with supporting photo/video evidence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Highlighting RF Atrocities: UA reports civilian casualties and damage from RF strikes, and documents captured RF personnel providing testimony. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Emphasis on Resilience: UA leadership and media maintain a strong narrative of national strength, resilience, and determination to fight for independence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Transparency in Diplomacy: UA provides updates on diplomatic meetings, emphasizing Ukraine's commitment to peace on its own terms and the need for international pressure on Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Exposing RF Discrepancies: UA sources actively point out discrepancies in RF claims (e.g., captured "M113" actually a GAZ-71). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

UA Public Sentiment:
- Resilience & Anger: Civilian casualties in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia likely fuel public anger and resolve against RF aggression, as evidenced by declarations of mourning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Support for Military: Continued public support for drone procurement and national morale-boosting messages indicate sustained resolve. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Anticipation for Peace Talks: The high-profile Trump-Zelenskyy meeting is a significant point of public interest, with a desire for concrete outcomes towards peace. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RF Public Sentiment (Inferred):
- Domestic Focus: RF state media continues to focus on domestic issues (housing, infrastructure, agricultural issues) to project normalcy and government effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Reinforcing Narrative: Constant exposure to victory narratives and demonization of Ukraine aims to maintain public support for the "special military operation." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Recruitment/Volunteerism: Appeals for donations and videos of soldiers receiving awards aim to boost morale and encourage recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

Washington Summit (Zelenskyy-Trump-European Leaders):
- Key Discussion Points: Initial public statements from Trump and Zelenskyy highlight discussions on ending the conflict, security guarantees for Ukraine, European burden-sharing, and the possibility of a tripartite meeting (US-RF-UA) to discuss territorial issues based on current front lines. Trump stated "Today will either be a deal or no deal. If not, support for Ukraine stops." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- NATO Membership: Trump explicitly stated Ukraine will not be in NATO but will have security guarantees. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Aid Modality: Trump suggested a shift towards "selling, not giving" weapons to Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Prisoner Exchange: Trump expressed confidence in the immediate release of over a thousand POWs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- European Leaders' Role: European leaders (NATO SG Rutte, EC Head von der Leyen, Italian PM Meloni, UK PM Starmer, French President Macron) attended the meeting, emphasizing a united front but with nuanced positions. Meloni suggests security talks similar to NATO Article 5; Starmer calls for reliable guarantees; Macron proposes a four-way meeting including Putin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Outcome: The meeting has concluded; no joint press conference occurred after the closed talks. Trump expressed optimism for an agreement, while Merz stated he cannot imagine a next meeting without a ceasefire, highlighting differing perspectives on peace terms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RF Diplomatic Efforts:
- Alaska Summit: Putin and Central Asian leaders (Zhaparov, Modi) discussed the "Alaska talks," indicating RF's efforts to project international engagement and influence on the peace process. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Isolation of UK: RF calls on London to abandon "risky geopolitical gambits" and not interfere with Russian-American negotiators, likely an attempt to isolate the UK. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- NATO Red Line: RF reiterates that NATO military contingents in Ukraine are "unacceptable and fraught with uncontrolled escalation," a clear warning against direct intervention. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Criticism of Ukraine: RF continues to amplify critical statements against Ukraine from various sources to weaken international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Black Sea Security: Romania's desire to expand joint Black Sea patrolling with Bulgaria and Turkey indicates increased NATO presence and focus on regional security in response to Russian actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Energy Geopolitics: Slovakia stopping Russian oil via Druzhba pipeline, following Hungary, signals further shifts in European energy reliance away from Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ukraine could continue importing gas from Azerbaijan. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

Continued Limited Offensives (Donetsk Focus): RF forces will continue localizing their main offensive efforts on the Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske and Pokrovsk directions, aiming for incremental territorial gains to create favorable conditions for future negotiations. They will likely push to fully secure Chasiv Yar and advance towards Konstantinovka/Krasnoarmeysk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Sustained Deep Strike Campaign: RF will continue its high-tempo missile and drone campaign targeting critical infrastructure, military facilities, and population centers across Ukraine to degrade UA's warfighting capacity, disrupt logistics, and exert psychological pressure. This includes continued KAB use on frontline and near-frontline cities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Enhanced EW & Counter-UAS Operations: RF will continue to expand and refine its EW capabilities to disrupt UA drone operations and C2, particularly in active combat zones. They will increasingly deploy anti-drone FPV units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Aggressive Information Operations: RF will intensify information operations, leveraging diplomatic events like the Washington summit to shape narratives, demoralize UA forces, and potentially create divisions among Ukraine's international partners regarding peace terms and future aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Consolidation in Sumy/Kharkiv Border Areas: Following reported setbacks in Sumy Oblast, RF will likely focus on consolidating gains, fixing UA forces, and probing for weaknesses along the northern border of Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts, rather than launching a large-scale offensive in the immediate future. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

Major Breakthrough in Donetsk with Exploitation: RF successfully achieves a significant operational breakthrough on the Pokrovsk axis, seizing Konstantinovka or Krasnoarmeysk, which could threaten to collapse parts of the Ukrainian front in Donetsk Oblast and compromise key GLOCs, leading to a rapid advance. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Escalated Hybrid Warfare in Third Countries: Russia expands its hybrid operations, including cyberattacks and covert actions, against European nations perceived as strong supporters of Ukraine, aiming to destabilize internal politics and reduce aid flows. This could include further attacks on infrastructure like pipelines outside Ukraine. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
Deployment of New Long-Range Strike Capabilities (Iranian/North Korean): RF deploys and effectively integrates new, previously unconfirmed long-range strike capabilities, possibly from North Korea (such as the claimed 3000km range "Flamingo" missile by RF, if it is indeed a foreign system and not Ukrainian), leading to a significant increase in deep strike tempo and targeting of strategic assets or decision-making centers. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Analyst Note: The "Flamingo" missile is a UA claim, which RF seems to be attempting to appropriate as a foreign-sourced threat to justify deep strikes. This warrants careful monitoring of actual capabilities vs. information operations.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

Immediate (0-24 hours):
- Continued RF missile and drone strikes overnight, especially on Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia, in response to UA deep strikes and ongoing diplomatic talks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Localized ground assaults on Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk axes will persist. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- UA air defense will remain on high alert. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Decision Point: Need for immediate assessment of RF EW system capabilities and the possibility of a direct retaliatory strike against UA command nodes after the Washington meeting.
Short-Term (24-72 hours):
- Intensification of RF pressure on Konstantinovka/Krasnoarmeysk if RF assesses UA defenses are weakening in the Pokrovsk direction. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
- Continued UA counter-offensive operations to consolidate gains in Dobropillya-Pokrovsk and Dnipropetrovsk-Donetsk border areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Diplomatic fallout from the Washington meeting, with statements from various leaders clarifying their positions, especially on security guarantees and territorial concessions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Decision Point: Assess the concrete implications of Trump's statements regarding future US aid and security guarantees for Ukraine's long-term military planning and resource allocation.
Mid-Term (1-2 weeks):
- RF will likely regroup and potentially reinforce forces for a renewed, more concentrated offensive, particularly if current advances prove insufficient or unsustainable. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
- The effectiveness of UA's new "Flamingo" missile will be tested and observed, potentially leading to a shift in UA's deep strike strategy. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
- International discussions on peace terms will evolve based on the Washington summit outcomes and ongoing battlefield realities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Decision Point: Evaluate the sustainability of current Ukrainian defensive and counter-offensive operations given potential shifts in Western aid and the enduring RF threat.

INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

PRIORITY ONE - RF EW System:
- IR: Technical specifications (frequencies, power output, range) and precise geolocation of the new RF EW system near Krasnohorivka.
- Collection Requirements: ELINT, HUMINT (intercepted RF chatter on EW effectiveness).
PRIORITY TWO - RF Ground Offensive Reserves:
- IR: Identification, disposition, and readiness of RF second echelon forces or strategic reserves that could be committed to the Donetsk (Pokrovsk/Konstantinovka) or Zaporizhzhia directions.
- Collection Requirements: ISR (satellite imagery, long-range UAVs), HUMINT, OSINT (RF social media recruitment/mobilization efforts).
PRIORITY THREE - "Flamingo" Missile Capabilities:
- IR: Independent verification of "Flamingo" cruise missile capabilities (range, payload, accuracy) and confirmation of its combat use against RF targets.
- Collection Requirements: IMINT, SIGINT (telemetry, launch signatures), BDA from RF targets.
PRIORITY FOUR - Impact of Druzhba Pipeline Strike:
- IR: Independent verification of the claimed complete destruction of the "Druzhba" oil pipeline and its actual impact on RF energy exports and internal fuel supply.
- Collection Requirements: Satellite imagery, OSINT (market analysis, RF domestic reporting), HUMINT from affected regions.
PRIORITY FIVE - Long-Term Western Aid & Security Guarantees:
- IR: Clarity on the terms and conditions of future US and European military and financial assistance to Ukraine, including the potential shift to "selling" weapons and the nature of "security guarantees."
- Collection Requirements: OSINT (diplomatic statements, press conferences, official documents), HUMINT (Western diplomatic sources).

RECOMMENDATIONS

Immediate Counter-EW Action: Prioritize and allocate resources for offensive EW operations or precision strike targeting against the newly identified RF EW system near Krasnohorivka. This system poses a critical threat to UAV reconnaissance and C2.
Reinforce Konstantinovka/Krasnoarmeysk Defenses: Given persistent RF claims and efforts to advance on these axes, reinforce key defensive lines, particularly on GLOCs leading to Konstantinovka and Krasnoarmeysk, with additional ATGM teams, artillery assets, and prepared minefields.
Exploit RF Internal Discord & Logistical Weaknesses: Intensify information operations targeting RF personnel morale, amplifying reports of poor conditions, combat injuries, and the motivations of captured soldiers. Continue deep strikes against RF logistics and industrial military targets to degrade their sustainment capabilities.
Accelerate Domestic Drone Production & Air Defense Integration: Expedite the scaling of Ukrainian drone production (including "Flamingo" cruise missiles) and integrate new anti-drone technologies and tactics across all units to maintain tactical superiority in the aerial domain.
Seek Clarity on International Aid: Proactively engage with US and European partners to clarify the specifics of future military aid packages, particularly regarding funding models and security guarantees, to ensure predictable and sufficient support for long-term defense planning.

Situation Report