Archived operational intelligence briefing
TIME: 180941Z AUG 25
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske Axis): RF forces maintain a confirmed foothold in the eastern Kanal microdistrict of Chasiv Yar. Fighting extends into adjacent forested areas. Ukrainian Air Force continues to report KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. RF claims of "liberation" of Chasiv Yar remain assessed as RF information operations. Clashes persist near Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, Oleksandra-Kalynove, and Pleschiyivka. UA 93rd Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" successfully cleared and took control of Hruzke and Vesele near Dobropillya, also capturing an RF prisoner, indicating localized UA counter-offensive success and stabilization in the Dobropillya area. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and towards Bondarne in the Kramatorsk direction. Rybar (RF source) animated maps indicate Russian advances around Chasov Yar and Katerinovka, with pushes towards Konstantinovka and along the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal, suggesting continued RF focus on consolidating and expanding territorial gains. OSUV "Dnipro" states Russians have occupied two settlements in Donetsk Oblast (unnamed). RF MoD reports Russian artillery destroyed a mortar and a UA UAV control point, likely in Donetsk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) and Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) videos show Azov Brigade successfully repelling a powerful enemy attack and preventing consolidation in Katerynivka, Toretsk direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is a direct contradiction of previous RF claims of gains in the Katerynivka area and indicates effective UA defensive action. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts new video showing drones "clearing strongholds" and covering "our assault teams" in the Krasnoarmeysk direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates continued RF drone support for ground offensives. RF sources (RBC-Ukraine) report explosions in occupied Donetsk, with complaints of unknown drone attacks (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates successful UA drone strikes in occupied territory, highlighting RF vulnerabilities and further contesting the information space. ASTRA (UA source) reports explosions and a subsequent fire in Donetsk, citing local residents (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This corroborates the previous report of UA drone activity in occupied Donetsk. KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue in Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) has posted multiple photo messages that appear to be maps or operational summaries of activity in the Siversk direction, providing general information on military operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts new video showing 93rd Mechanized Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" conducting clearance operations of the village of Vesele in the Dobropillya area, supported by tanks and multiple ground robotic systems equipped with machine guns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video footage of the 85th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (OMCBR) operating on the Soledar direction, showing drone footage of a wooded area with debris and smoke from impacts, and a destroyed trench system. This indicates continued RF offensive operations and heavy fighting in Donetsk Oblast, likely focusing on fortified positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) claims RF 36th OA forces (37th OMCBR, 336th Marine Brigade) are likely to force UA to abandon Maliyivka and are advancing from Shevchenko to Yanvarske, though with limited success. This indicates continued RF pressure and potential tactical gains in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (often grouped under "Donetsk" for operational reporting by RF). (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, UA sources need to corroborate). STERNENKO (UA source) posts video of the 3rd SSO Regiment (POPRYVSE) burying RF personnel under collapsed buildings in the Pokrovsk direction, indicating effective UA counter-drone operations and direct combat engagement (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UA source) posts a photo message claiming "successfully demobilized" RF personnel (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) posts video claiming destruction of a UA 2S1 Self-Propelled Howitzer near Konstantinovka, indicating continued RF counter-battery fire and targeting of UA artillery (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Predtechyne, Oleksandro-Shultyne and Bila Hora in Kramatorsk direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovskoe Direction): UA sources report a critical "lack of infantry." RF claims a "big breakthrough" and liberation of Iskra in DNR. RF forces have reportedly broken through into Zolotyi Kolodyaz, with ongoing fighting, and advanced up to 1.5km towards Sokil from Ocheretyne, threatening a key Ukrainian GLOC. UA sources report stabilization and successful destruction of enemy elements, and Ukrainian paratroopers clearing Pokrovsk of Russian DRGs. UA forces repelled enemy near Rubizhne, Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Vesele, Vilne, Shakhove, Nykanorivka, and Sukhetske. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Poltavka, Volodymyrivka, Fedorivka, Novoekonomichne, Rodynske, Sukhetske, Promin, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Udachne, Dachne, Novoukrayinka, Lysivka, Nykanorivka and towards Filiya in the Pokrovsk direction. Main Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reports successful UA advances for the second consecutive day in Dobropillya and Pokrovsk directions, despite challenges. RF sources are consistently reporting heavy fighting and "destruction" of UA equipment/personnel near Pokrovsk. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts photos and video confirming successful UA counter-DRG operations near Pokrovsk. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video of the 425th Regiment "SKALA" showing captured Russian soldiers providing testimony on their unit movements and lack of support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports an attempted assault on Pokrovsk by RF forces utilizing motorcycles, resulting in destroyed RF equipment and casualties. TASS reports that an officer of the press center of the RF 'Vostok' grouping, Aleksei Yakovlev, stated their units have advanced into enemy defenses in Ivankiv, Poltavka, and Zeleny Gay. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This indicates claimed RF ground advances in the Pokrovsk direction. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted multiple photo messages summarizing the General Staff's report as of 08:00, likely including updates on the Pokrovsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim) WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Pokrovsk direction as of 18 AUG 25, indicating continued localized RF advances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). TASS (RF source) reports that the National Guard of Ukraine is relocating some units from Kharkiv Oblast to the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, indicating a perceived increase in RF pressure on this axis and a UA response to reinforce defenses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). TASS (RF source) reports that Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi recognized the situation as difficult along the entire contact line, especially in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. This RF reporting of UA command statements indicates RF awareness of UA force disposition and vulnerabilities in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, supporting previous RF claims of pressure). Mash на Донбассе (RF source) posts aerial video of military activity in Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk area, showing an explosion and vehicle movement, corroborating ongoing fighting and RF presence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Commander Syrskyi commenting on RF forces near Dobropillya, stating "instead of 'forward, victory' - 'encirclement, end'," suggesting effective UA defense or counter-offensive actions in the area (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) posts thermal imaging video claiming to show RF rocket artillery striking enemy strongholds in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, supporting RF claims of continued pressure and effective fires (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UA source) reports liberation of Zolotyi Kolodyaz and Petrivka in Donetsk Oblast, supported by video evidence of soldiers and captured prisoners, directly countering RF claims of gains and confirming UA counter-offensive success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Poltavka, Vilne, Nove Shakhove, Zapovidne, Novoekonomichne, Myrolubivka, Novoukrayinka, Lysivka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne and towards Volodymyrivka, Rodynske, Chervone Lymanu, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Molodetske in the Pokrovsk direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UA reports capture of an RF prisoner from 150th Division by Azov units, and significant RF losses in Azov's areas. Mandatory evacuation of families with children in Druzhkivka suggests anticipated RF advances or increased threat. Closure of Ukrposhta branches in Konstantinovka from August 19 further indicates increasing threat to this logistics hub. Clashes reported near Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, Oleksandra-Kalynove, and Pleschiyivka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Pleschiyivka, Stepanivka, Yablunivka and Rusyn Yar in the Toretsk direction. STERNENKO (UA source) reports that Phoenix UAS tactical group is "cutting Russian logistics" in the Konstantinovka direction, providing video evidence of drone strikes on multiple RF vehicles and personnel. Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) claims RF 4th OMCBR continues to attack towards Delievka – Aleksandro-Shulgino and attempts to break through and consolidate in Belaya Gora. This indicates continued RF offensive efforts in the Toretsk direction. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, UA sources need to corroborate). Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Toretsk, Scherbynivka and towards Oleksandro-Shultyne, Pleschiyivka, Rusyn Yar in the Toretsk direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Luhansk Oblast (Siversk Direction): RF forces report combat operations with drone-guided artillery and ATGM teams. RF MoD claims destruction of AFU stronghold in Krasny Liman direction. RF aims to advance 2 km to close a "fire bag" for AFU in Kremensky forests. Russian forces reportedly broke through Ukrainian defense lines in the Lyman district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Serebryanka, Vyyimka, Fedorivka, Pereyizne and towards Siversk in the Siversk direction. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Kolodezi in Donetsk People's Republic (Luhansk direction). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 63rd Brigade utilizing three FPV drones to neutralize a Russian tank threatening Ukrainian positions east of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast. RF MoD confirms liberation of Kolodezi and Voronoye. Colonelcassad reports on mobile fire groups operating in Belgorod Oblast and Luhansk People's Republic (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This suggests continued RF focus on countering UA drone threats and defending occupied territories. TASS reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including foreign mercenaries, suffered 4,500 personnel losses in the past week on the Luhansk People's Republic borders, with the Southern Group of Forces inflicting the most damage, as stated by Marochko. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim). This is a likely inflated RF claim of enemy casualties. TASS (RF source) claims that Kyiv has struck Lisichansk, LPR, more than 10 times in the past week, resulting in civilian casualties, citing Marochko (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim). This is a likely RF information operation to demonize UA forces and distract from RF civilian targeting. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Luhansk direction as of 18 AUG 25, indicating continued localized RF advances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Сливочный каприз (RF source) posts a summary of combat operations between August 14-17, 2025, which likely includes the Luhansk direction, indicating RF efforts to consolidate and report perceived successes (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Fedorivka and Vyyimka in the Siversk direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): Sustained RF artillery and FPV drone attacks on Nikopol and surrounding communities. RF claims control of all settlements at the junction of DNR and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast after liberation of Iskra. Extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Nikopol confirmed. Ballistic missile strike on outskirts of Dnipro confirmed with damage to civilian property. Overnight drone attack on Pokrovska community, Synelnykivskyi district, caused fires at agricultural enterprises. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Voronoye in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetrovsk Regional State Administration) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopolshchyna. A ballistic missile threat on Synelnykove and a high-speed target from the east on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Explosions were heard in Pavlohrad. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports destruction of a UA T-72 tank by an FPV drone in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF reconnaissance UAVs detected near Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a drone (UAV) threat to Pavlohrad (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "powerful explosions" in Pavlohrad, indicating a successful RF strike on the city and its use for information operations (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS (RF source) claims UA forces in Iskra, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, killed an elderly female civilian. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim, LOW - Factual Basis). This is a likely RF information operation to demonize UA forces. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropropetrovsk Regional State Administration) reports that RF struck Pavlohrad with a missile overnight, causing a fire which has since been extinguished. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Воин DV (RF source) video footage from an aerial platform with thermal imaging, focused on a wooded area on the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and DNR, targeting what appears to be personnel or equipment, further corroborating RF offensive actions in this region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces struck Pavlohrad Repair and Mechanical Plant and Technical Equipment Plant. This indicates RF continues to target military-industrial targets in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). MoD Russia (RF source) video of servicemen from the Vostok Group of Forces describing the liberation of Iskra in Donetsk People's Republic, mentioning a deceased woman and enemy shelling of civilians, implies RF presence and control in a previously contested area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, LOW - Factual Basis of civilian targeting attribution).
Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkivskyi District): UA Air Force alerts for high-speed targets and KAB launches. RF claims improved position near Krasny Perviy, controlling ~6 km of road to Dvorechnaya. A substantial increase (estimated 40%) in Russian EW emissions has been detected in the Kharkiv sector, primarily targeting Ukrainian reconnaissance UAVs and degrading ISR capabilities. Continued RF reconnaissance UAVs in northern and eastern Kharkiv Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Khatnye and Fyholivka in the South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 4 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes in the past day. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports 11 casualties in Kharkiv from recent RF attack (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олег Синєгубов, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, reports 3 additional casualties, bringing total to 11 (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) corroborates the 11 casualties (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration (UA source), provided multiple photo messages (22:14:48-22:14:49Z) showing damaged civilian residential buildings, debris, and emergency services personnel in Kharkiv after an RF attack. The presence of a child's stuffed toy amidst the rubble and civilians being comforted by a psychologist highlights the significant civilian impact of these strikes. The watermark "ХАРКІВСЬКА ОБЛАСНА ВІЙСЬКОВА АДМІНІСТРАЦІЯ" confirms the location and official source (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "continuing to pound Kharkiv" with "powerful explosions," indicating ongoing RF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна reports an explosion heard in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Mayor Igor Terekhov confirms "Shahed" hits in Industrialnyi district, including a multi-story residential building, with fire in two entrances and risk of collapse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Oleg Syniehubov confirms two casualties (25-year-old male, 79-year-old female) from drone strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Subsequent reports from Oleg Syniehubov indicate 10-year-old boy, 19-year-old girl, 46-year-old male, and 47-year-old female hospitalized. Mayor Igor Terekhov reports one fatality and five injured. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This confirms continued RF precision strikes on civilian infrastructure and the use of UAVs for these strikes, leading to escalating civilian casualties. Kharkiv now reports four fatalities (up from three), including a one-year-old child and a 55-year-old woman, and 17 injured (including 6 children). Another person was rescued alive from under the rubble. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is a significant and tragic escalation in civilian casualties from RF drone strikes. Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) reports 5 people are currently missing in the Industrialnyi district of Kharkiv following the attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and РБК-Україна (UA source) have released additional video footage showing the ongoing search and rescue operation and the extent of the damage to the multi-story residential building in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ASTRA (UA source) has released photos and a drone video showing the extensive destruction of the five-story residential building in Kharkiv, confirming the severity of the strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports on the drone attack on a residential high-rise in Kharkiv, confirming four fatalities, including a two-year-old child, and injured, underscoring the indiscriminate nature of the attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports a 16-year-old boy became the fourth victim of the morning attack on Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна (UA source) reports five fatalities in Kharkiv from the morning strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) corroborates five fatalities in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) corroborates five fatalities in Kharkiv and provides video footage of the aftermath. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Север.Реалии (UA source) reports at least four fatalities in Kharkiv, with people still being extracted from rubble. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) reports enemy strikes on Kharkiv and 10 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast over the past day, providing photo evidence of damaged civilian residential buildings and debris, further confirming the widespread targeting of civilian areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reports five fatalities and at least 30 injured from enemy attacks on Kharkiv, with multiple photo messages confirming the severe damage to civilian areas. This further confirms escalating civilian casualties and the humanitarian crisis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) reports the number of injured in Kharkiv has increased to 20 from drone attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) also reports 30 injured in Kharkiv following the Russian attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts video and photo messages of the aftermath of the Kharkiv attacks, describing a "Morning in Kharkiv," with visuals of smoke, damaged buildings, and emergency services. This further corroborates the severity of civilian impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) declares August 18 a day of mourning in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating the severe impact of recent attacks (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports the number of injured in Kharkiv has increased to 20, citing National Police (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) reports the number of fatalities in Kharkiv has increased to 6, citing the mayor (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) confirms 6 fatalities in Kharkiv (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts an informational message on the situation in the Kharkiv operational zone as of the morning of 18 August 2025 (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports the number of fatalities in Kharkiv has risen to 7, with another body retrieved from the rubble (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) corroborates 7 fatalities in Kharkiv (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) also confirms 7 fatalities in Kharkiv (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts video of border guards liquidating 5 enemy targets on the South Slobozhansky direction (Kharkiv), including a tank, confirming active UA defense and counter-battery fire in the region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) and Рыбарь (RF source) both post video of a military convoy with RF and US flags, with the RF side claiming it is a "trophy M113" and engaged in combat, suggesting RF deception or information operations during ground assaults in the Kharkiv direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) posts video of a Russian attack on Kharkiv from the city's mayor (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video of Kharkiv mayor showing morning Shahed strikes on residential areas (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) posts video of Kharkiv mayor showing the moment of a Russian strike on a residential building (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Chernihiv Oblast: UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs, high-speed targets, and threat of strike UAVs. "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on a forward Ukrainian command post in Birino area confirmed. Ballistic missile impact in Honcharivske reported. RF claims destruction of a foreign mercenary legion's base. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Krasnyy Khutir of Chernihiv region. Colonelcassad reports Kinzhal strike near Desna and Geran/Gerbera strikes near Semenivka (Chernihiv Oblast). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV threat to Brovary and Boryspil districts in Kyiv Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE) and a UAV threat to Kyiv (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates continued RF drone activity in northern Ukraine, potentially targeting key infrastructure near the capital. Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy UAVs on northern Chernihiv Oblast and in the Pryluky area, with assets engaged to shoot them down (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка (RF source) claims "Geran" drones are "drilling" Chernihiv Oblast, indicating sustained RF strike activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports enemy UAVs attacked Kyiv Oblast overnight, damaging a hangar in Boryspil district. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Chernihiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia (RF source) posts video claiming Geran-2 UAVs hit AFU special forces units of GUR near Zhadovo, Chernihiv region, providing BDA footage (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UA source) reports UAVs in central Chernihiv Oblast near Pryluky, with assets engaged to shoot them down (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RF source) posts video claiming Geran strikes hit GUR special forces in Chernihiv, indicating continued RF targeting of high-value Ukrainian units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim).
Kherson Oblast (Left Bank Dnieper): UA reports destruction of an RF ammunition depot and four vehicles on the left bank. RF claims Lancet strike destroyed US M-777 howitzer and Ukrainian Bogdana SPG on right bank. Ukrainian Navy radio intercepts confirm loss of Russian Su-30SM fighter jet southeast of Snake Island. UA forces repelled 4-6 Russian army assaults. UA source claims reconnaissance units entered "Novaya Kakhovka" on the Kherson direction and are shelling enemy defenses. Southern Ukraine Defense Forces report continued strikes on enemy deployment areas, fire positions, and rear areas in the southern operational zone. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports strikes on Khadzhibeevka and Usatove (Odesa region), specifically targeting "marine BECs" (likely maritime drones/boats) and a 330kv power substation (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates continued RF counter-UAV and infrastructure targeting efforts in the Odesa direction. TASS (RF source) claims that the "Kyiv-appointed" administration of Kherson has long since left the city and is operating remotely from Mykolaiv, citing pro-Russian underground sources (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim, LOW - Factual Basis). TASS reports that the AFU lost a Starlink satellite communication station and 17 UAV control points in the zone of responsibility of the 'Vostok' grouping in the past 24 hours. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim) This indicates RF claims of successful targeting of UA C2 and communication infrastructure in southern/eastern Ukraine. Два майора (RF source) posts thermal imaging footage claiming to show activity in Kherson at night. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim, LOW - Factual Basis of the content). Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) provides operational information for the Southern Defense Forces as of 08:00 on 18 AUG 25, likely including updates on Kherson direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Kherson direction as of 18 AUG 25, indicating continued localized RF advances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Odesa Oblast: STERNENKO reports groups of strike UAVs in the north and near Odesa Oblast. РБК-Україна reports an alert from Odesa Oblast Military Administration calling residents to shelters due to strike UAVs. STERNENKO reports Odesa is under a massive "Shahed" drone attack, with explosions heard (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports reduction in drone numbers near Odesa, with one drone continuing towards Odesa/Usatove (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports continued drone threats in Velyka Balka-Nerubaiske and Radisne-Velykyi Dalnyk (Odesa Oblast) (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports a large fire in Odesa after a massive Shahed strike (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RF source) posts multiple photo and video messages reporting "powerful strikes on enemy objects in Odesa, fires in the city" with visual evidence of large fires and explosions (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports that RF drones struck a Nova Poshta terminal in Odesa, citing local media, confirming the civilian nature of some targets (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника (RF source) claims that their strike UAVs hit "several objects" in Odesa overnight and provides a series of associated videos/photos, likely as BDA or propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim) Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна (UA source) confirm an RF drone strike on a fuel and energy infrastructure object and a two-story building in the suburbs of Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ASTRA reports a fire on a fuel and energy infrastructure object in Odesa Oblast due to RF drone attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) reports Odesa was attacked by Shaheds all night, corroborating sustained RF drone activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video of the aftermath of strikes on an alleged SOCAR oil depot in Odesa Oblast, indicating continued RF targeting of energy infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts video claiming Geran drones destroyed a "giant fuel terminal" of SOCAR (Azerbaijani oil company) in Odesa Oblast, with all 17 tanks, pumping station, and technical rooms destroyed (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, LOW - Factual Basis of complete destruction). Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) reports 24 Shahed UAVs destroyed by Southern Defense Forces in the past day (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a map/graphic titled "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine August 17 - August 18, 2025," which likely includes Odesa (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Colonelcassad also posts video of an explosion with "kurs_odessa" watermark, implying strikes on Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video claiming a massive Shahed attack on SOCAR oil depot in Odesa Oblast overnight, citing Azerbaijani media, corroborating previous reports (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts video claiming "Azerbaijani fuel tanks extinguished. Aliyev knows geopolitics. Result is visible" with footage of damaged tanks, indicating that the fire at the SOCAR oil depot has been contained (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Colonelcassad (RF source) comments that overnight strikes in Odesa targeted Nova Poshta objects and SOCAR, which are being used by Ukrainian forces, and that Russia "methodically hits Azerbaijani objects in Ukraine used for AFU interests," confirming RF intent to target these facilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) posts video of significant damage to industrial or storage tanks in Odesa, further corroborating the strike on the SOCAR oil depot (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) also posts video showing the aftermath of attacks on SOCAR in Odesa, with damaged storage tanks, confirming civilian impact of strikes and industrial damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RF source) provides photos of a large fire, likely in Odesa, claiming a fuel and energy infrastructure object was hit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RF claims destruction of AFU ammunition depot. 578 RF strikes on 14 settlements over past day. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast. A 64-year-old man was wounded in a hostile attack on Polohivskyi district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Tolstoy, Komyshuvakha, Zelene Pole, Maliyivka, Myrne, Zaporizhzhke, Olhivske in the Novopavlivka direction. Colonelcassad reports VKC and missile forces conducted strikes on targets in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація reports air raid alert over (HIGH CONFIDENCE). An air raid alert has been declared in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE), and has since been lifted (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) has re-declared an air raid alert. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of aviation weapons use in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia district, with assets engaged to shoot them down. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports the air raid alert has been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) has re-declared an air raid alert. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat in areas where air raid alerts are declared. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports ballistic missile activity towards Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target towards Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports an explosion in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) reports Zaporizhzhia is under ballistic missile attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports a second ballistic missile towards Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) reports a third explosion heard in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports repeated explosions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast amid a ballistic threat, citing the OBA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports RF is attempting to strike critical infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia, citing Fedorov. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) corroborates RF attempts to strike critical infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia, with initial reports of casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) confirms RF strikes on Zaporizhzhia, with two impacts and an increase in injured persons to four. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborates two strikes on Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the ballistic missile threat has been lifted for all oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports four injured in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) also reports four injured in Zaporizhzhia from the double strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports that 6 people, two in serious condition, have been hospitalized in Zaporizhzhia due to attacks on the regional center. This indicates a further increase in casualties and confirms sustained RF targeting of Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) also reports 6 injured after the RF strike on Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) corroborates the increasing number of casualties in Zaporizhzhia, with some "heavy" injuries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) posts photos from the State Emergency Service showing the aftermath of Russian ballistic missile attacks on Zaporizhzhia, confirming civilian damage and humanitarian impact (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) posts a photo message about increased government payments for people injured in production accidents, which is irrelevant to military operations (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports 7 injured in Zaporizhzhia (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) posts video reporting 17 injured in Zaporizhzhia after RF strike, citing local authorities (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) confirms 17 injured in Zaporizhzhia (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) also reports 17 injured in Zaporizhzhia (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) posts photos showing damage to residential buildings, enterprises, commercial premises, and a bus stop in Zaporizhzhia due to the RF strike (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Syrskyi stating Russia is concentrating troops and planning a large-scale offensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating increased threat (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) posts video showing firefighters and emergency personnel clearing debris from a heavily damaged commercial building in Zaporizhzhia, confirming continued RF strikes on civilian infrastructure and the ongoing emergency response (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) posts video of significant damage to a multi-story building and debris in Zaporizhzhia, confirming casualties and the impact of RF attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Zelenyy Hay, Tolstoy, Oleksandrohrad, Voskresenka, Maliyivka, Vilne Pole and Temyrivka in the Novopavlivka direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source (UA) reports clashes yesterday near Novoandriyivka in the Orikhiv direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA) reports a man rescued from debris has died (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA) corroborates the death of the man in Zaporizhzhia (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA) reports air raid alert lifted in Zaporizhzhia (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kupyansk Axis: Previous reports indicated a decisive shift of RF main effort with the capture of Ivanivka. RF continues strikes on settlements. UA reports successful tank sorties and drone operations against RF personnel and equipment. Commander of "Achilles" Regiment Fedorenko (UA source) reports RF plans to occupy Kupyansk by August 24. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports the first mechanized attack by RF on the left bank of Kupyansk in a long time, involving 2 tanks, 3 MT-LBs, and ~40 personnel, which was repelled with destruction of enemy equipment. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map of the Kupyansk direction as of 18 AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim).
Sumy Oblast: РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian forces actively destroying the enemy in Sumy Oblast, pushing back Russians near Oleksiivka and Yunakivka. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of a destroyed UA M577 command post vehicle in Sumy Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing an RF truck with ammunition epically destroyed by a Ukrainian drone on the way to Sumy Oblast. TASS reports that RF forces have improved their tactical position near Yunakovka, Sumy Oblast, and occupied new positions. Операция Z (RF source) thermal imagery video titled "Спецназ «Анвар» и ВДВ массово сжигают бронтехнику врага, поддерживая наступление на Сумы" claims successful destruction of UA armored vehicles by Spetsnaz "Anvar" and VDV units supporting an offensive on Sumy (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim). This indicates a potential new RF offensive axis or significant fixing operation in the Sumy direction. РБК-Україна reports a 57-year-old woman injured by a KAB strike on Novoslobidska community, Sumy Oblast, around 22:00 (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new UAVs on northern Sumy Oblast, moving southwest (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports a missile strike on Sumy around 22:40, damaging a building of an educational institution (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) has posted photo messages confirming a missile strike on an educational institution in Sumy late last night, showing significant damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка (RF source) posts a mocking caption suggesting RF strikes or activity in Shostka, Sumy Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF reconnaissance UAVs are operating near Putyvl, Sumy Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports "loud explosions" in Sumy, claiming something "self-detonated" among UA forces (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim, LOW - Factual basis of claimed intent/cause). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports a series of explosions in Sumy (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 new RF UAVs detected east of Bilopillya, moving southwest (HIGH CONFIDENCE). KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation continue in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Sumy Oblast moving southwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна reports continued RF attacks on Sumy, with explosions confirming strikes on civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad shares video footage from the 68th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th Army, Western Military District, showing a military pickup truck engaging enemy forces with mounted weaponry. This footage is from Sumy Oblast and indicates active RF offensive/reconnaissance operations in the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy district, with assets engaged to shoot them down. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS (RF source) claims that Ukrainian Armed Forces command in Sumy Oblast has committed all resources to outflank RF forces in Yunakivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video showing two individuals in a wooded area with abandoned cars and a quad bike, claiming it depicts RF forces marauding in border villages of Kursk Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim of RF Maraduing). Kotsnews (RF source) posts video with caption "Syrsky: Kursk - best result among all major operations," which is an RF information operation likely taking UA statements out of context (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). MoD Russia (RF source) posts video claiming a BM-21 Grad MLRS crew eliminated a manpower cluster of the AFU in Sumy region (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts video of a Lancet loitering munition preparation and strike, stating "Sumy direction: 'Iksavody VDV' are working!", indicating continued RF air/drone support for ground operations in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source (UA) reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA) posts photos of the ruined Sumy State University (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF) claims the Sumy State University was hit by a "Flamingo missile" (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim, LOW - Factual Basis of Weapon Type).
Poltava Oblast: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Poltava Oblast moving towards Myrhorod. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Kyiv Oblast: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports a car explosion in Podilskyi district, Kyiv, with one person sustaining minor injuries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) posts photos of the car explosion in Kyiv's Podilskyi district, confirming the incident. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) provides multiple photo messages of a fire incident in an urban environment, implying an attack on Kyiv Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). Операция Z (RF source) posts video and photo messages claiming "Ukrainian partisans" blew up a military vehicle in Kyiv, linking it to the previous reported car explosion (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). This is likely an RF information operation to claim responsibility or internal unrest.
Overall Frontline: RF continues employment of FPV drone swarms and Lancet loitering munitions, with a reported 20% increase in Lancet strikes in the last 24 hours. UA inflicted significant personnel losses (1010 RF personnel in the last 24h, total 276,300 since year start). UA deep strikes into RF territory include the Syzran Oil Refinery (Samara Oblast), Olya seaport (Astrakhan Oblast), the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast, and a drone attack on Azot chemical plant in Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol Krai. 61 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed by UA. Prisoner exchange of 84 servicemen conducted. TASS reports Putin congratulated the Russian Geographical Society on its 180th anniversary (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Rybar (RF source) posts a photo message which is likely an analytical overview or summary of current military developments from an RF perspective (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports on cyber activity against Russian organizations, finding over 180 infected systems, 49 still controlled by one hacking group (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS also reports Mikhail Ulyanov stating that the West should provide Russia with the same reliable security guarantees as Ukraine (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z reports that Ukraine fears a verbal altercation between Zelenskyy and Trump at their next meeting, citing Washington Post (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF info-op). Новости Москвы reports "viewing TikToks and Reels is five times more dangerous than alcohol" (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) posts a video of two black kittens and a hedgehog (22:39:09Z) (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Igor Artamonov (RF source) reports a yellow alert "air danger regime" declared for all of Lipetsk Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS quotes a Serbian sniper, Dejan Beric, stating that sniper scouts no longer conduct foot reconnaissance behind enemy lines, as drones now perform these tasks (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports a "Carpet" plan has been introduced in Penza Oblast, suggesting an air defense alert due to potential aerial threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The "Carpet" plan in Penza Oblast has been canceled, as reported by the governor, indicating a de-escalation of the immediate air threat in that region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video message from Sumy Oblast, showing military vehicle movement through forested areas and along dirt roads, and one instance of what looks like an engagement (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates active RF operations, including reconnaissance or direct engagement, in Sumy Oblast. TASS reports Polyansky's statement that the settlement process in Ukraine must consider the opinion of 7 million Ukrainians who sought refuge in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Trump claims Zelenskyy can end the conflict by renouncing Crimea and NATO membership. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zelenskiy / Official reports arrival in Washington for meeting with President Trump and European leaders, stating desire for a quick and lasting peace, contrasting with previous forced concessions. Notes successes in Donetsk and Sumy regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports on the "Crocus" terrorist attack, mentioning a co-conspirator convicted in Tajikistan for calls to change the constitutional system. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Rybar (RF source) has posted an analytical overview of the current military developments from an RF perspective, titled "Chronicle of the SVO for August 16-17." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) also posted a summary of events for the morning of August 18, 2025. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that the Tambov airport has lifted restrictions on aircraft reception and departure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports that Russia expects constructive relations with the new authorities of Bolivia regardless of the presidential election results. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) and Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) report estimated general combat losses of enemy personnel (+940 in the last 24h) and equipment (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA claim). This aligns with previous General Staff reports. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts images of new Chinese anti-ship hypersonic missiles (YJ-15, YJ-17, YJ-19, YJ-20) from a parade rehearsal in Beijing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This is not directly related to current Ukraine operations but is an observation of a global military development. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy is scheduled for 20:15 Kyiv time and will last one hour. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF MoD claims 23 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF and annexed Crimea overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim) Fighterbomber (RF source) posts an image of historical Soviet propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS (RF source) and ASTRA (UA source, citing Kremlin media) report that the FSB prevented a terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge and detained co-conspirators. The FSB claims it was the second such attempt this year. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim) Kotsnews (RF source) also reports on the thwarted Crimean Bridge attacks, confirming the widespread dissemination of this narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim) TASS (RF source) reports 20 fatalities at an incident at the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This confirms the significant impact of the earlier reported UA deep strike on this facility. Igor Artamonov (RF source) reports a red level UAV attack threat declared for Lipetsk, Lipetsk MO, Gryazinsky MR, Dobrinsky MR, Khlevensky MR, Usmansky MR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This indicates a significant and widespread air defense alert in central Russia. TASS (RF source) reports the Russian government plans to increase demand for housing and affordability of mortgages for preferential categories of citizens. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This is a domestic Russian news item, likely aimed at demonstrating government concern for social welfare. Colonelcassad (RF source) has posted video footage of sniper pairs of the 299th Yaroslavl Regiment engaged in combat operations against both enemy personnel and aerial targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This indicates continued RF counter-UAV efforts by ground units. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) and Два майора (RF source) are amplifying the FSB claims of the prevented Crimean Bridge terror attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim) TASS reports that Zelenskyy is ready to make concessions and agree to a peaceful settlement of the conflict along the current front line, citing FT. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF info-op) WarGonzo and Kotsnews confirm the FSB reports of a prevented terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim) Басурин о главном (RF source) also amplifies the FSB claim of a thwarted Crimean Bridge terror attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim) РБК-Україна reports an explosion of a car painted to look like a military vehicle in Kyiv, with one casualty. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Два майора (RF source) posts a video of an APC moving across open terrain, with soldiers riding on top and a Russian flag displayed. This depicts RF personnel and equipment in transit, likely for movement or positioning of forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) posts a photo message advertising a bot for mobilization news. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Internal Info-op). WarGonzo (RF source) provides a series of tactical maps for the morning of 18 AUG 25, covering various directions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts a photo message promoting his information channel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Internal Info-op). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a technical diagram/illustration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» (UA source) posts a photo message of their brigade emblem. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Internal Info-op). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a video appeal for donations for drones and Starlink, citing needs for the 7th Airborne Division in the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Internal Info-op). WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Siversk direction as of 18 AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Southern (Robotyne) direction as of 18 AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Kherson direction as of 18 AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). WarGonzo (RF source) provides a tactical map for the Kharkiv direction as of 18 AUG 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts video claiming FSB prevented a second terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge, showing apprehension of an individual and dismantling of a vehicle with an explosive device. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Рыбарь (RF source) comments on the Crimean Bridge incident, stating 130 kg of explosives would not destroy the bridge but would cause casualties and media impact, with repairs possible within a month. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Analysis). ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a photo message of the 210th Assault Regiment pilots at work, emphasizing their continuous operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Morale/Info-op). Colonelcassad (RF source) comments on the Crimean Bridge incident, mirroring Rybar's assessment that the attack was for media impact rather than destruction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Analysis). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a general warning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 88 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) also reports 88/140 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed, and 0/4 Iskander-M missiles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports RF launched 4 ballistic missiles and 140 drones overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports the Investigative Committee has qualified Ukraine's attempt to attack the Smolensk NPP as a terrorist act. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Север.Реалии (UA source) reports the General Prosecutor's Office recognized a German foundation aiding fascism victims as "undesirable." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України (UA source) provides a video report on enemy losses (personnel, UAVs, tanks, vehicles, motorcycles, EW/reconnaissance systems, artillery systems) inflicted by the brigade between 11-17 August 2025. This provides specific BDA from a UA unit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). Два майора (RF source) comments on Trump's actions as "forcing globalists and their narcotic puppet to peace" and anticipating provocations, an RF info-op. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь (RF source) posts on new Chinese military hardware, including hypersonic missiles, likely for general military interest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) reports RF attacked Ukraine with 4 Iskander-M missiles and 140 drones overnight, corroborating UA Air Force data. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RF source) amplifies The Guardian's report that Trump excluded the return of Crimea and Ukraine's NATO membership, pushing the RF narrative on peace terms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF info-op). Fighterbomber (RF source) mentions a new episode of "333" discussing topics, likely military-related content. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts multiple photo messages with a strong nationalist and anti-Russian message, emphasizing Ukrainian resilience and resolve against aggression, and criticizing "allies" for perceived weakness. Some images depict deceased RF soldiers, highlighting Ukrainian successes and the brutality of the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Syrskyi stating Russia's bravado about fighting for years is unfounded. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) posts a short overview of current events. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UA source) posts a video of drones hitting enemy logistics and reconnaissance, indicating continued UA success in deep strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a general warning. This is a standard alert. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы (RF source) posts about a messenger app and user photos, which is irrelevant to military intelligence. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) has posted multiple photo messages about the detention of members of a criminal organization in Kyiv and Odesa involved in cocaine delivery, including photos of seized firearms and cash. This indicates UA internal security and law enforcement activities, not directly military operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Law Enforcement). Colonelcassad (RF source) confirms 20 fatalities and 134 injured at the Ryazan gunpowder plant explosion. This updates the casualty count for the UA deep strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kotsnews (RF source) posts "Selectivity of Kyiv and volunteers from everywhere," which is a cryptic RF information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Басурин о главном (RF source) posts on Trump's statements on social media, amplifying RF's desired narrative regarding negotiations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). ТАСС (RF source) reports Russians confirming identity with biometrics for long-distance train travel, a domestic RF development unrelated to the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). ASTRA (UA source) reports on a BDSM party organizer sentenced for offending religious feelings, a domestic RF legal/social issue, irrelevant to military intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) posts on Trump advising Zelenskyy to "think about his fate," amplifying RF's desired narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Игорь Артамонов (RF source) reports the cancellation of the "red level" UAV attack threat in Lipetsk. This is a positive development for civilian security in that region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports Pushilin claiming RF forces are advancing on a broad front near Rodinskoe and Belitskoe in DNR. This is an RF claim of territorial advance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Глеб Никитин (RF source) posts videos of a "Music of Balconies" festival, a domestic RF cultural event, irrelevant to military intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) posts an RT exclusive video and photos of documents or individuals, which are unclear without more context. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Unclear content, likely RF info-op). Басурин о главном (RF source) posts a video about Trump and Di Vance meeting Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, framing it as Russian politicians "trolling" European leaders. This is an RF information operation regarding the diplomatic situation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Полиция Хабаровского края (RF source) posts on a new law regarding Russian language proficiency for foreign workers, a domestic RF legal development, irrelevant to military intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Colonelcassad (RF source) reports Trump and "cocaine führer" (Zelenskyy) meeting at 20:15 MSK, which is an RF info-op and a time confirmation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op/Confirmation). Два майора (RF source) posts a video appealing for donations for the RF 74th OMCBR, indicating continued reliance on volunteer support for RF units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Logistics). Новости Москвы (RF source) posts a bizarre photo message about sanitizing food that fell on the floor, irrelevant to military intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) reports Rylsk (Kursk Oblast, RF) under drone attack, indicating continued UA deep strikes into RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Igor Artamonov (RF source) reports the cancellation of the yellow alert "air danger regime" for Lipetsk Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports former Italian PM Renzi called Putin an "excellent negotiator" who thinks about the world order for the next 20 years, indicating RF efforts to legitimize Putin's international standing (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). TASS (RF source) posts on cheap airline tickets from Sochi to Ufa, a domestic news item irrelevant to military intelligence (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts photos claiming to show explosives designed to target the Crimean Bridge, embedded in a lithium battery (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim of Prevention). Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) posts a strong message against fraudsters, likely related to fundraising (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Internal). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a video of a military vehicle (tank) with Russian and American flags, claiming "America is with us," a clear RF information operation (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a video of a cultural/diplomatic event, claiming "the path of peace, brotherhood, love, and good" has returned, suggesting a false narrative of RF peace efforts (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). TASS (RF source) posts video of a rally in Tel Aviv, irrelevant to Ukraine operations (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). ТАСС (RF source) reports Istanbul Ataturk Airport is a suitable location for a Ukraine summit, indicating continued diplomatic discussions (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a political cartoon and commentary portraying Trump and Putin negotiating a separate deal, excluding Europe, and portraying Europe as trying to change Trump's position, amplifying RF narratives of Western disunity (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Север.Реалии (UA source) reports the death toll in the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop explosion has risen to 20, confirming the severity of the UA deep strike (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) posts photos showing amphibious training for the 39th Separate Marine Brigade, indicating UA continued combat readiness and adaptation to water obstacles (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Training). TASS (RF source) reports Rubio approved a plan to liquidate a UN contingent in Lebanon, which is international news not directly related to Ukraine but reflects geopolitical shifts (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a generic "All is well" message, likely for morale (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Morale). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) posts a video showing many fresh graves with flags in Belgorod, claiming it's a cemetery, indicating Russian casualties (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Casualties). TASS (RF source) posts video showing individuals dismantling a vehicle, claiming it's related to the prevented Crimean Bridge terror attack (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim of Prevention). STERNENKO (UA source) posts a video of the 3rd SSO Regiment (POPRYVSE) burying RF personnel under collapsed buildings in the Pokrovsk direction, confirming UA tactical success (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a map/graphic titled "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine August 17 - August 18, 2025," providing an RF summary of recent strikes (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Colonelcassad also posts video of an explosion with "kurs_odessa" watermark, implying strikes on Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RF source) posts a schedule of Trump's activities for August 18, 2025, showing his meeting with Zelenskyy at 20:15 (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Сливочный каприз (RF source) provides a combat summary from August 14-17, 2025 (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Два майора (RF source) posts photos and video of the thwarted Crimean Bridge terror attack, claiming explosives were hidden in batteries (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Рыбарь (RF source) posts photos of advanced developments (presumably military technology), indicating RF's focus on technological innovation (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Internal Info-op). РБК-Україна (UA source) posts a fundraising appeal for the "Rubizh" National Guard Brigade for equipment repair/replacement (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Logistics). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts photos and video confirming the FSB prevented a terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). **STERNENKO (UA source) posts video showing an RF military vehicle with a US flag attacking Ukrainian positions, framing it as an RF information operation (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts video of a damaged fuel tank in Odesa, claiming "Azerbaijani fuel tanks extinguished. Aliyev knows geopolitics. Result is visible" with footage of damaged tanks, indicating that the fire at the SOCAR oil depot has been contained (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Mash на Донбассе (RF source) posts video claiming a "new source of water" appeared in Mariupol, with people collecting water, implying infrastructure damage or new water supply issues (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts video titled "God protects the protected," showing a vehicle with equipment in a rural setting, suggesting reconnaissance or specialized operations (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) posts video showing damaged industrial tanks in Odesa, further corroborating the SOCAR oil depot strike (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts a photo message by "Petr Lundstrem" titled "The Motherland needs professionals," likely a recruitment or morale booster (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts video of a flag-raising ceremony for Pakistan's Independence Day in Birmingham, UK, likely used for RF info-op to show Western internal divisions (LOW CONFIDENCE - Relevance to conflict; HIGH - RF Info-op). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts a photo message of RF forces with American flags on their armored vehicles, mocking this as RF propaganda related to Alaska negotiations (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Президентська бригада ЗСУ (UA source) posts recruitment messages for cooks, indicating ongoing logistical needs and personnel rotation (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Logistics). Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (UA source) posts photos of a meeting with families of POWs/MIAs in Lviv, indicating continued UA efforts to address humanitarian aspects of the war (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Morale/Humanitarian). ТАСС (RF source) reports on the construction of kindergartens in Russia, a domestic news item used to project normalcy (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Старше Эдды (RF source) posts video discussing Arctic resources and the strategies of Russia, USA, and China, indicating RF focus on broader geopolitical and resource security issues beyond Ukraine (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) posts photo message about a customs officer being tried for bribery related to coffee imports, indicating continued UA efforts to combat corruption (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). ТАСС (RF source) reports on an arrested singer, a domestic Russian news item (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). TASS (RF) reports ~1,400 military personnel losses for Ukraine in the past 24h (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). TASS (RF) reports destruction of up to 100 long-range UJ-22 and Paliyanytsya UAVs at launch sites (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). TASS (RF) reports Iskander-M strike destroyed up to 40 military personnel, 100 UAVs, and 16 trucks in DNR (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Colonelcassad (RF) claims RF MoD caught a large group of UA "terrorists" launching drones at Russian regions (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Colonelcassad (RF) posts video of "objective control" from an Iskander-M strike on a large group of UA UAV operators (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Рыбарь (RF) posts a photo message with a missile, captioned "We brought you a rocket" (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Олександр Вілкул (UA) posts on Kryvyi Rih being first in Ukraine for digitalization (LOW CONFIDENCE - Relevance). STERNENKO (UA) posts a photo about military personnel calling for urgent negotiations (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Morale/Info-op). ТАСС (RF) reports prices for some medicines in Russia have decreased by 15% since the beginning of the year (LOW CONFIDENCE - Relevance). Народная милиция ДНР (RF) posts video showcasing blacksmith making sculptures from spent ordnance (LOW CONFIDENCE - Relevance). Басурин о главном (RF) posts a rating of "military correspondents" who controlled the news agenda last week (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Операция Z (RF) posts video from "Military Correspondents of Russian Spring" showing a Russian M113 APC with RF and US flags attacking UA positions (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA) posts video showing the RF propaganda using a Russian M113 APC with RF and US flags (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA) launches a platform to support victims of Russian aggression (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы (RF) posts video about a quiet place in Moscow, seemingly unrelated (LOW CONFIDENCE - Relevance). Alex Parker Returns (RF) posts a photo captioned "Lend-Lease. To be good!", with RF and US flags on a military vehicle (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF) posts photos of Putin's handwritten notes on a speech for Anchorage, suggesting internal RF affairs (LOW CONFIDENCE - Relevance).
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
Ukrainian Forces: Maintain a defensive posture, successfully repelling 56 RF offensive actions. UA continues to inflict significant personnel and equipment losses on RF, as reported by the General Staff. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UA units demonstrate effective drone reconnaissance and strike capabilities, with new videos showing successful anti-armor, anti-personnel, and anti-logistics operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UA is actively adapting to new EW threats and developing countermeasures, including new air-to-air defense systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UA is effectively integrating Western-provided equipment (Challenger 2, Caracal vehicles). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UA cyber police are actively addressing financial fraud related to military fundraising, safeguarding resources and public trust. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UA military leadership (Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi) is actively engaged with frontline units to boost morale and assess operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UA is expanding its unmanned ground systems capabilities, indicating a strategic focus on modernizing ground combat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UA air defense has demonstrated success in reducing the number of incoming RF UAVs during recent attacks on Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
President Zelenskyy's stated desire for a quick and lasting peace, but one that avoids past mistakes of territorial concessions, reaffirms Ukraine's steadfast posture on territorial integrity. His mention of successful operations in Donetsk and Sumy indicates continued active defense and localized counter-offensives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) President Zelenskyy's physical presence in Washington for direct diplomatic engagement with President Trump and European leaders underscores Ukraine's proactive posture in shaping international support and conditions for peace, reaffirming unwavering determination to end the war on Ukraine's terms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ukrainian emergency services are actively responding to severe civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in Kharkiv, highlighting the strain on civilian resources. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ukrainian General Staff and Operatyvny ZSU continue to publicize RF losses, demonstrating an ongoing commitment to transparency and information warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RBC-Ukraine reports Mayor Terekhov stating more people are likely under rubble in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Oleg Syniehubov posts new photos showing damaged civilian buildings in Kharkiv, reinforcing the active response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Oleksandr Vilkul's report on Kryvyi Rih indicates successful maintenance of local control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UA Air Force issuing new air threats for Zaporizhzhia and Sumy Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Ukrainian emergency services continue high-tempo search and rescue operations in Kharkiv, demonstrating readiness to respond to civilian impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UA sources confirmed successful response to drone strike on Odesa suburbs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ shows 45th OABr on a night hunt of an MT-LB, demonstrating continued combat readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна reports medical personnel or first responders, likely from UNICEF, engaged in outdoor activity (photo analysis), indicating continued humanitarian presence and aid efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UA forces have introduced sanctions against Russia's CBST and AI drone developers, indicating proactive measures to degrade RF military capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO emphasizes "only death will stop Russians," indicating strong resolve for continued resistance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна (UA source) publishing an interview with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, who states Ukraine must constantly prepare for war with Russia, reflecting a long-term readiness posture. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports on damage in Kyiv Oblast, providing transparency on RF attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video of 93rd Mechanized Brigade clearing Vesele with tank and robotic support demonstrates UA offensive capabilities and readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports a car explosion in Kyiv with one injured, indicating immediate response to an internal security incident. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) reports ongoing air raid alerts and explosions, confirming UA's continued air defense posture. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) and Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) post solemn messages and videos commemorating fallen defenders, reinforcing national unity and morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Morale/Info-op). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) provides a graphic of estimated enemy combat losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» (UA source) posts a photo message of their brigade emblem, likely for morale/identity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a photo message showing pilots of the 210th Assault Regiment at work, emphasizing their continuous operations in varying conditions, likely to boost morale and highlight their professionalism. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Morale/Info-op). Сили оборони Півдня України (UA source) provides operational information for the Southern Defense Forces, indicating continued active defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) reporting on the Kharkiv attacks, with five fatalities and 30 injured, demonstrates UA's commitment to publicizing RF war crimes and maintaining transparency. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) video showing the destruction of multiple RF vehicles and a tank by SBS units indicates high UA combat readiness and effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade's (UA source) detailed report of enemy losses, including 250 UAVs, 8 wing-type reconnaissance drones, 1 tank, 11 vehicles, 10 motorcycles, 1 EW/reconnaissance system, and 7 artillery systems, reflects robust UA defensive and counter-offensive success in their area of responsibility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). UA Air Force reporting on successful UAV interceptions serves to reassure the public and counter RF narratives of overwhelming air superiority. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issuing a general warning. This is a standard control measure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Офіс Генерального прокурора (UA source) posts multiple photo messages and captions detailing the detention of members of a criminal organization in Kyiv and Odesa involved in cocaine delivery, including photos of seized firearms and cash. This demonstrates UA's continued internal security operations and law enforcement capacity, which underpins overall national readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts video/photos from Kharkiv aftermath, showing UA emergency response and continued efforts to manage civilian impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (UA source) posts photos from a Kharkiv rally "Don't be silent. Captivity kills" in support of missing and captured defenders. This indicates UA efforts to support personnel and manage public sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк (UA source) posts photo messages with an angry tone against fraudsters, indicating internal efforts to combat crime (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Internal). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts a video of a soldier in camouflage aiming a weapon, captioned "Putin's last kiss," suggesting UA tactical operations against RF (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) posts multiple photo messages on amphibious training for the 39th Separate Marine Brigade, demonstrating continued UA force readiness and specialized training (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Training). РБК-Україна (UA source) posts a fundraising appeal for the "Rubizh" National Guard Brigade, indicating their need for support to restore equipment and readiness (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Logistics). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts multiple photo messages depicting a fire incident in an urban environment, implying active UA emergency response capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration (UA source) posts multiple photo and video messages detailing civilian damage and the response of emergency services to RF strikes in Zaporizhzhia (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration (UA source) video showing emergency services responding to the aftermath of strikes in Zaporizhzhia indicates active UA response (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UA source) posts video showing emergency services responding to fires/damage in Zaporizhzhia (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts multiple photo messages on law enforcement activities, showing UA's ability to maintain order and counter criminal elements, thereby countering RF narratives of chaos (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts a video showing the 31st Mechanized Brigade operating drones and conducting strikes, showing UA continued operational capabilities and adaptation (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UA source) confirms 6 fatalities in Kharkiv, indicating ongoing UA casualty assessment and public reporting (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) provides an informational message on the situation in its area of responsibility, indicating continued UA military reporting (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Claim). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts a strong message condemning fraudsters and stating they are being sought, indicating UA's focus on maintaining public trust and resources for the war effort (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Internal). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA source) posts video showing firefighters and emergency personnel clearing debris in Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating UA's ongoing emergency response readiness (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) posts a photo message with a quote from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi about reliance on high-tech weaponry to reduce troop presence on the battlefield, indicating a strategic shift towards modern warfare and force preservation (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Президентська бригада ЗСУ (UA source) posts recruitment messages for cooks, indicating their readiness to sustain personnel in the field (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (UA source) posts photos of a meeting with families of POWs/MIAs, reflecting UA's commitment to supporting military families and maintaining morale (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UA source) reports liberation of Zolotyi Kolodyaz and Petrivka, highlighting UA's continued offensive capabilities and readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ОТУ "Харків" (UA source) posts video of border guards liquidating 5 enemy targets, demonstrating UA's active defense and counter-battery fire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts photo of an RF Z-blogger injured by a mine, indicating effective UA mine warfare and continued combat pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UA source) quotes Syrskyi on the significant proportion of UA offensive/counter-offensive actions, highlighting UA's dynamic and proactive posture. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts photo message about SBU detaining an FSB agent in Druzhkivka, demonstrating UA's internal security capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (UA) posts photos of children from "People of the Future" project wakeboarding, indicating a focus on civilian well-being and future generations amidst conflict (LOW CONFIDENCE - Relevance to immediate military operations). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UA) posts a photo about the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade expanding its contract to include unmanned systems operators, indicating UA's focus on modernizing and enhancing drone capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (UA) announces a new platform to support victims of Russian aggression, demonstrating UA's commitment to civilian welfare (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA) posts a photo message about SBU counter-intelligence exposing a store seller working for Russian special services in Druzhkivka, demonstrating UA's effective counter-intelligence (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Russian Forces: Concentrating elite VDV units and deploying advanced EW systems (R-330ZH Zhitel, "Pole-21", Shipovnik-Aero) near Bakhmut/Chasiv Yar and Kharkiv. Repositioning S-300 battalions for surface-to-surface roles. Intensifying artillery, including TOS-1A thermobaric systems and KABs. RF Defense Minister Belousov actively engaged with military correspondents to control narrative and boost internal morale/recruitment. RF forces actively engaging UA drones, with 29 enemy UAVs reportedly destroyed overnight. Continued reliance on and demand for tactical drones (Mavic 3/3 Pro). RF Northern Fleet exercises involving 2,000 personnel and up to 14 ships/submarines. TASS reports Putin congratulated the Russian Geographical Society on its 180th anniversary (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Rybar (RF source) posts a photo message which is likely an analytical overview or summary of current military developments from an RF perspective (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports on cyber activity against Russian organizations, finding over 180 infected systems, 49 still controlled by one hacking group (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS also reports Mikhail Ulyanov stating that the West should provide Russia with the same reliable security guarantees as Ukraine (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z reports that Ukraine fears a verbal altercation between Zelenskyy and Trump at their next meeting, citing Washington Post (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF info-op). Новости Москвы reports "viewing TikToks and Reels is five times more dangerous than alcohol" (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) posts a video of two black kittens and a hedgehog (22:39:09Z) (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Bloomberg (via TASS and Operatsiya Z) reports that Zelenskyy faces a dilemma before his meeting with Trump: risk Trump's anger or accept a quick peace deal (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Igor Artamonov (RF source) reports a "yellow level" air danger regime for Lipetsk Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE), and later a "red level" UAV attack threat for the city of Lipetsk and several municipal districts (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This red level threat has since been canceled. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports on new amendments to the law on gardening, which do not contain new prohibitions on doing business on garden plots (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The Police of Khabarovsk Territory (RF source) posted recruitment videos and messages for the Ministry of Internal Affairs (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Police of Khabarovsk Territory (RF source) posted multiple photo and video messages, including a video of a police officer discussing a criminal investigation and seized items (firearms, ammunition, tactical gear) (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that the AFU lost a Starlink satellite communication station and 17 UAV control points in the zone of responsibility of the 'Vostok' grouping in the past 24 hours. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim) Colonelcassad posts a large archive of Ukrainian training videos on various enemy engineering munitions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This indicates RF is collecting and analyzing UA tactical information, likely for counter-IED/munition efforts. TASS reports that it is not forbidden to have citizenship of several other countries in Russia, which may be relevant for mobilization or control of dual nationals. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The "Carpet" plan activation and subsequent cancellation in Penza Oblast indicates RF's air defense control measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad's video from Sumy Oblast directly indicates RF ground offensive/reconnaissance capabilities in border areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника (RF source) has posted photo messages emphasizing "Airborne brotherhood, family," likely a morale-boosting effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника (RF source) also posted a video showing destroyed urban environments with military personnel present, consistent with VDV operational areas, indicating continued engagement in combat zones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Police of Khabarovsk Territory have posted additional graphic content, likely for public relations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF MoD claims 23 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF and annexed Crimea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim) FSB claims to have prevented two Ukrainian terror attacks on the Crimean Bridge this year, asserting their counter-terrorism capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim) RF sources continue to report on the Ryazan gunpowder workshop incident, confirming 20 fatalities, likely to frame it as an industrial accident rather than an attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Igor Artamonov (RF source) declaring a "red level" UAV attack threat for multiple districts in Lipetsk Oblast indicates proactive RF air defense measures and a high level of alert in response to perceived aerial threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad's video of sniper pairs from the 299th Yaroslavl Regiment engaging enemy personnel and aerial targets indicates continued RF ground force operations and adaptation to UAV threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF sources (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора, Дневник Десантника) are amplifying the FSB claims of the prevented Crimean Bridge terror attack, aiming to project offensive and defensive capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim/propaganda) TASS reports Zelenskyy is ready for concessions on current front line. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF info-op) RF sources (Операция Z, WarGonzo, Kotsnews, Басурин о главном) are actively reporting and providing video evidence of FSB thwarting a Crimean Bridge terror attack, showcasing RF counter-terrorism efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim) TASS reports General Prosecutor has recognized German foundation "Stiftung Erinnerung, Verantwortung und Zukunft e.V." as an "undesirable organization" in Russia, indicating RF efforts to restrict foreign influence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports on an AN-24 aircraft rolling off runway in Tyumen, no casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This is a domestic aviation incident, not directly military but demonstrates RF's ability to report on internal events. Рыбарь (RF source) posts a morning summary. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Два майора (RF source) posts on what Rybar says. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports Dmitryev says Trump and his team are striving for a real settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Два майора (RF source) posts a video showing an armored personnel carrier with soldiers and a Russian flag, indicating RF force disposition and movement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kotsnews (RF source) posts a video claiming FSB prevented a second terror attack on the Crimean Bridge, showing apprehension of an individual and dismantling of a vehicle with an explosive device. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) also posts a video claiming FSB prevented a terror attack on the Crimean Bridge, showing apprehension and vehicle battery disassembly. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Операция Z (RF source) posts an image of Donald Trump's social media post, which is a clear RF information operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) posts a photo message to advertise a bot, likely for military mobilization news, indicating RF efforts to manage military information for its population. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Internal Info-op). Военкор Котенок (RF source) promotes his information channel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Internal Info-op). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a technical diagram. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» (UA source) posts a photo message of their brigade emblem. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Internal Info-op). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a video appealing for donations for drones and Starlink, citing needs for the 7th Airborne Division in the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Internal Info-op). WarGonzo (RF source) posts tactical maps for various axes, indicating RF attempts to control military narrative and present perceived successes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts a video confirming the FSB prevented a terror attack on the Crimean Bridge. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Рыбарь (RF source) comments on the Crimean Bridge incident, stating 130 kg of explosives would not destroy the bridge but would cause casualties and media impact, with repairs possible within a month. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Analysis). ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (UA source) posts a photo message of the 210th Assault Regiment pilots at work, emphasizing their continuous operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UA Morale/Info-op). Colonelcassad (RF source) comments on the Crimean Bridge incident, mirroring Rybar's assessment that the attack was for media impact rather than destruction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Analysis). TASS (RF source) reports US National Guard soldiers in Washington may receive weapons for increased security, which is domestic US news but may be used by RF to frame the US as unstable or escalatory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports that diplomatic representatives delivered a new Ural motorcycle to an Alaska motorcycle enthusiast as a gift from Putin. This is an RF soft power/diplomatic initiative, likely aiming to project goodwill internationally. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a promotional graphic for selling "traumatic weapons" without a license, indicating internal RF issues with gun control or a black market. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы reports that Russia wants to abolish the statute of limitations for child abuse cases, which is a domestic legal initiative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) provides a time confirmation for the upcoming Trump-Zelenskyy meeting (20:15 MSK) and refers to Zelenskyy as "cocaine führer," indicating continued RF attempts to demonize Ukrainian leadership and control the information space regarding the meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op/Confirmation). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) posts a video which appears to be propaganda, potentially with misleading or manipulated content for RF information operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Unclear content, likely RF info-op). ТАСС (RF source) reports Pushilin claiming RF forces are advancing on a broad front near Rodinskoe and Belitskoe in DNR. This is an RF claim of territorial advance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Глеб Никитин (RF source) posts videos of a "Music of Balconies" festival, a domestic RF cultural event, irrelevant to military intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) posts what appear to be documents or lists of individuals, potentially related to personnel or military service, although the exact context is unclear. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Unclear content, likely RF Internal). Басурин о главном (RF source) posts a video about Trump and Di Vance meeting Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, framing it as Russian politicians "trolling" European leaders. This is an RF information operation regarding the diplomatic situation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Полиция Хабаровского края (RF source) posts on a new law regarding Russian language proficiency for foreign workers, a domestic RF legal development, irrelevant to military intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Воин DV (RF source) posts an aerial thermal imaging video, likely drone footage, showing targeting in a wooded area, suggesting continued RF ISR and strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) posts two photo messages and one text message about former Italian PM Renzi calling Putin an "excellent negotiator," which is an RF info-op to boost Putin's international image (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). TASS (RF source) posts on cheap airline tickets, irrelevant to military operations (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts three photo messages and one text message about explosives related to the Crimean Bridge attack attempt, framing it as a successful prevention by RF (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts two video messages and one text message showing a military vehicle with US and Russian flags, claiming "America is with us," a clear RF information operation (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). TASS (RF source) posts two video messages and one text message about a rally in Tel Aviv, irrelevant to Ukraine operations (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). TASS (RF source) reports Istanbul Ataturk Airport is a suitable location for a Ukraine summit, indicating continued diplomatic discussions (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a political cartoon and commentary portraying Trump and Putin negotiating a separate deal, excluding Europe, and portraying Europe as trying to change Trump's position, amplifying RF narratives of Western disunity (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) posts a video showing many fresh graves with flags in Belgorod, claiming it's a cemetery, indicating Russian casualties (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Casualties). TASS (RF source) posts video showing individuals dismantling a vehicle, claiming it's related to the prevented Crimean Bridge terror attack (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim of Prevention). Сливочный каприз (RF source) posts a combat summary for August 14-17, 2025, providing an RF overview of recent operations (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Два майора (RF source) posts photos and video of the thwarted Crimean Bridge terror attack, claiming explosives were hidden in batteries (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Рыбарь (RF source) posts photos of advanced developments (presumably military technology), indicating RF's focus on technological innovation (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Internal Info-op). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts photos and video confirming the FSB prevented a Crimean Bridge terror attack (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Операция Z (RF source) posts a schedule of Trump's August 18 activities, including the Zelenskyy meeting, indicating RF's close monitoring of international diplomatic events (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) posts video claiming destruction of a UA 2S1 Self-Propelled Howitzer near Konstantinovka, indicating RF's continued counter-battery efforts (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a photo claiming to show an RF military vehicle with a US flag, captioned "America is with us," reinforcing RF propaganda (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Info-op). Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a video for a donation drive for the "Summer Campaign 2025," indicating RF's reliance on volunteer support for their military (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Logistics). Два майора (RF source) posts a video related to volunteer efforts in Omsk Oblast making trench candles, indicating continued reliance on citizen support for RF forces (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Logistics). Два майора (RF source) posts a photo regarding Kazakhstan's Ministry of Defense transition to a national messenger, indicating RF's interest in regional military/information security developments (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Internal Info-op). MoD Russia (RF source) posts video of Ka-52M helicopters striking enemy manpower in a forested area, demonstrating RF air support capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Claim). STERNENKO (UA source) posts video showing an RF military vehicle with a US flag attacking UA positions, confirming an RF info-op aimed at sowing discord (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts video of a damaged fuel tank in Odesa, claiming fire extinguished and attributing to "Aliyev's geopolitics," demonstrating RF's opportunistic use of BDA for info-ops (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash на Донбассе (RF source) posts video showing water being pumped in Mariupol, which could relate to RF efforts to control or restore critical infrastructure in occupied territories (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts video titled "God protects the protected," showing a vehicle with equipment in a rural setting, possibly for reconnaissance or specialized operations, reflecting RF's self-perception of divine protection (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RF source) posts video showing extensive damage to industrial tanks in Odesa, confirming RF's success in targeting critical infrastructure and their willingness to publicize it (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts a photo message with a quote from "Petr Lundstrem" on the need for "professionals," likely an internal RF recruitment or morale-boosting effort (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a video of a Pakistani Independence Day celebration in Birmingham, UK, implying internal divisions in Western countries, part of RF's broader hybrid operations (LOW CONFIDENCE - Relevance, HIGH - RF Info-op). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts a photo of RF armored vehicles adorned with American flags, mocking the RF propaganda attempt (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) posts about kindergarten construction in Russia, part of RF's domestic normalcy narrative (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Старше Эдды (RF source) posts a video discussing Arctic resources and geopolitics, demonstrating RF's broader strategic narratives (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports a magnetic storm expected, indicating RF awareness of environmental factors impacting operations (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RF source) reports on an arrested singer, a domestic Russian news item (LOW CONFIDENCE - Irrelevant). Mash на Донбассе (RF) posts video of a car crash into a car wash in Donetsk (LOW CONFIDENCE - Relevance). WarGonzo (RF) posts a video of "Russian Hurricane" MLRS in action, showing a military convoy (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations
2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status
2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
RF Propaganda:
UA Counter-Propaganda:
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
MLCOA 1: Continued Consolidation and Gradual Advance on Chasiv Yar. RF forces will prioritize consolidating their gains in the "Kanal" micro-district, conducting probing attacks and heavy indirect fire preparation (KABs, thermobaric artillery) to soften UA defenses. They will likely attempt to incrementally expand their foothold to establish a more secure staging area for deeper assaults into the urban core of Chasiv Yar. This will be supported by continued high-volume EW to degrade UA ISR. Recent RF videos of 85th OMCBR operations in the Soledar direction indicate continued focus on fortified positions and incremental gains in Donetsk. The liberation of Zolotyi Kolodyaz and Petrivka by UA forces demonstrates that while RF continues pressure, UA retains offensive capability.
MLCOA 2: Intensified Long-Range Strike Campaign with Increased Civilian Targeting. RF will continue and likely increase ballistic missile, cruise missile, and drone (Shahed/Geran) strikes across Ukrainian territory, particularly targeting military-industrial sites, energy infrastructure, and logistics hubs. This is a punitive measure in response to UA deep strikes into RF territory and aims to degrade UA's war-fighting capacity and morale. Civilian casualties will continue, especially in urban centers like Kharkiv and Sumy, with a high likelihood of residential building impacts given recent events. Strikes will also continue against border regions like Sumy and Kharkiv. RF claims of targeting UA C2 nodes and Starlink should be anticipated and may be amplified in information operations. The confirmed fatalities at the Ryazan gunpowder workshop and the declared "red level" UAV threat in Lipetsk indicate a heightened RF focus on counter-UA deep strikes and retaliatory measures. The strike on Odesa's fuel and energy infrastructure supports this MLCOA. New ballistic missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia and drone attack on Kyiv Oblast confirm continued widespread targeting. Confirmed launches of 4 Iskander-M missiles and 140 drones overnight, and continued KAB launches on Chernihiv and Kharkiv, demonstrate the scale and persistence of this threat. Targeted strikes on critical infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia reinforce this MLCOA. New RF claims of strikes on Pavlohrad Repair and Mechanical Plant and Technical Equipment Plant, and the alleged SOCAR oil depot in Odesa, further reinforce the intent to target military-industrial and energy infrastructure. The continued increase in civilian casualties in Kharkiv (now 7 fatalities) and Zaporizhzhia underscores the indiscriminate nature of these strikes. The new RF video claiming complete destruction of SOCAR oil depot by drones, if corroborated, indicates increased destructive capability. MoD Russia's video claiming BM-21 Grad MLRS eliminating AFU manpower in Sumy region indicates continued and direct fire support. Операция Z confirming Geran strikes on GUR special forces in Chernihiv further indicates continued high-value targeting. RF's claims of hitting UA drone launch sites with Iskander-M, and destruction of up to 100 UAVs, indicate a continued focus on disrupting UA deep strike capabilities.
MLCOA 3: Fixing Operations and Pressure on Secondary Axes, particularly Sumy and Pokrovsk. RF will maintain offensive pressure on the Pokrovsk and Kupyansk axes with localized attacks (e.g., small infantry groups, motorcycle assaults, limited armored probes) to fix UA forces and prevent redeployments to critical sectors like Chasiv Yar. The reported VDV/Spetsnaz offensive towards Sumy, now with visual confirmation of RF military vehicle movement in Sumy Oblast, suggests this will evolve into a significant fixing operation, drawing UA resources to the north. RF will likely amplify claims of advances in these secondary sectors for information operations. Continued reconnaissance and KAB launches in Sumy Oblast support this. New RF claim of UA committing all resources in Sumy Oblast to outflank RF in Yunakivka suggests continued active engagement and RF intent to fix UA forces in this sector. The reported relocation of Ukrainian National Guard units to the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction indicates increased pressure on this axis and confirms RF intent to fix UA forces there. New RF claims of advances in Rodinskoe and Belitskoe in DNR (TASS) and continued pressure towards Maliyivka and Shevchenko in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Zvиздец Мангусту) further indicate RF's intent to maintain pressure across multiple axes. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Syrskyi stating Russia is concentrating troops and planning a large-scale offensive in Zaporizhzhia, elevating the threat in this sector. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА's video of Lancet strikes in Sumy indicates continued RF support for this axis. The purported "Flamingo missile" strike on Sumy State University, if indeed a new weapon or an information operation, highlights RF's efforts to enhance their perceived strike capability.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
MDCOA 1: Rapid Breakthrough and Encirclement of Konstantinovka/Pokrovsk. If UA defenses around Chasiv Yar or Pokrovsk are severely weakened, RF could commit significant armored reserves to achieve a rapid, deep penetration. This could lead to the encirclement of Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk, severing critical Ukrainian GLOCs and creating a major operational crisis. This would involve concentrated air, artillery, and EW support. RF claims of advances in Ivankiv, Poltavka, and Zeleny Gay indicate ongoing intent in this direction. Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition's video showing RF rocket artillery targeting in Krasnoarmeysk direction implies pre-assault fire preparation for such a breakthrough.
MDCOA 2: Major Ground Offensive from Sumy/Kharkiv Directions with Deception. RF could launch a new, larger-scale ground offensive from the Sumy or Kharkiv border regions, aimed at creating a new "front," stretching UA resources, and forcing the redeployment of critical defensive assets away from Donetsk. This would likely involve multi-echelon attacks with substantial mechanized forces. The increased RF activity in Sumy Oblast and the confirmed presence of VDV/Spetsnaz, coupled with ongoing KAB launches and drone activity, indicate this remains a plausible, though resource-intensive, option. RF might employ deception operations to mask the true main effort of such an offensive. The "red level" UAV threat in Lipetsk, while defensively oriented, shows RF's heightened awareness and ability to secure its border regions, potentially as a prelude to offensive action. The RF claim of UA committing all resources in Sumy Oblast to outflank RF in Yunakivka, while likely an info-op, could also be a subtle indicator of RF preparing for a larger offensive, attempting to draw UA resources to this front and then exploiting the resulting vulnerabilities. Given the reported relocation of UA National Guard units to Pokrovsk, if a major offensive were to materialize in the Sumy/Kharkiv axis, it could find UA defenses under-resourced in the north. The RF video showing a military vehicle with a US flag attacking UA positions, if part of a larger deception, could support this MDCOA. The RF claim of "Ukrainian partisans" in Kyiv indicates RF's willingness to use internal disruptions as part of a broader, multi-domain offensive. The report from ASTRA regarding an attack on a pipeline supplying oil to Hungary, if linked to Ukraine, could be a precursor to escalated RF action or a false flag to justify it.
MDCOA 3: Coordinated Cyberattack and Kinetic Strike on C2 and Critical Infrastructure. RF could launch a highly coordinated cyberattack against key Ukrainian military C2 networks and Starlink infrastructure, immediately followed by precision kinetic strikes (missiles, drones) on identified command posts, communication nodes, and critical civilian infrastructure (e.g., power grid, logistics hubs). This could severely degrade UA's ability to coordinate and respond effectively to a simultaneous ground offensive, and also amplify the humanitarian crisis. RF claims of destroying Starlink and UAV control points suggest this capability and intent. The RF drone strike on Odesa's fuel/energy infrastructure demonstrates continued kinetic targeting of critical civilian assets. The sanctions by Ukraine against Russian AI drone developers indicate UA's awareness of this potential threat. The car explosion in Kyiv could be an isolated incident or part of a larger, coordinated internal security operation designed to sow chaos or distract from a kinetic strike. This scenario remains dangerous. The confirmed strikes on Zaporizhzhia's critical infrastructure, coupled with the large-scale overnight missile/drone attacks, suggest RF continues to prioritize and refine its ability to conduct such coordinated attacks. The increased number of injured in Zaporizhzhia from 6 to 17 highlights the severe impact of RF's targeting of critical civilian infrastructure. Операция Z (RF source) claiming "Ukrainian partisans" blew up a military vehicle in Kyiv indicates RF's willingness to leverage internal incidents for their information operations, potentially preceding or accompanying larger kinetic or cyber attacks. The expected magnetic storm could exacerbate the impact of any such cyber/EW attacks. The "Flamingo missile" claim, if a new type of weapon is involved, could be indicative of RF attempting to generate new vulnerabilities in Ukrainian defenses.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
END REPORT
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