Archived operational intelligence briefing
SITREP
TIME: 180209Z AUG 25
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske Axis): RF forces maintain a confirmed foothold in the eastern Kanal microdistrict of Chasiv Yar. Fighting extends into adjacent forested areas. Ukrainian Air Force continues to report KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. RF claims of "liberation" of Chasiv Yar remain assessed as RF information operations. Clashes persist near Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, Oleksandra-Kalynove, and Pleschiyivka. UA 93rd Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" successfully cleared and took control of Hruzke and Vesele near Dobropillya, also capturing an RF prisoner, indicating localized UA counter-offensive success and stabilization in the Dobropillya area. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and towards Bondarne in the Kramatorsk direction. Rybar (RF source) animated maps indicate Russian advances around Chasov Yar and Katerinovka, with pushes towards Konstantinovka and along the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal, suggesting continued RF focus on consolidating and expanding territorial gains. OSUV "Dnipro" states Russians have occupied two settlements in Donetsk Oblast (unnamed). RF MoD reports Russian artillery destroyed a mortar and a UA UAV control point, likely in Donetsk Oblast.
Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovskoe Direction): UA sources report a critical "lack of infantry." RF claims a "big breakthrough" and liberation of Iskra in DNR. RF forces have reportedly broken through into Zolotyi Kolodyaz, with ongoing fighting, and advanced up to 1.5km towards Sokil from Ocheretyne, threatening a key Ukrainian GLOC. UA sources report stabilization and successful destruction of enemy elements, and Ukrainian paratroopers clearing Pokrovsk of Russian DRGs. UA forces repelled enemy near Rubizhne, Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Vesele, Vilne, Shakhove, Nykanorivka, and Sukhetske. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Poltavka, Volodymyrivka, Fedorivka, Novoekonomichne, Rodynske, Sukhetske, Promin, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Udachne, Dachne, Novoukrayinka, Lysivka, Nykanorivka and towards Filiya in the Pokrovsk direction. Main Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reports successful UA advances for the second consecutive day in Dobropillya and Pokrovsk directions, despite challenges. RF sources are consistently reporting heavy fighting and "destruction" of UA equipment/personnel near Pokrovsk. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts photos and video confirming successful UA counter-DRG operations near Pokrovsk. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video of the 425th Regiment "SKALA" showing captured Russian soldiers providing testimony on their unit movements and lack of support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports an attempted assault on Pokrovsk by RF forces utilizing motorcycles, resulting in destroyed RF equipment and casualties.
Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UA reports capture of an RF prisoner from 150th Division by Azov units, and significant RF losses in Azov's areas. Mandatory evacuation of families with children in Druzhkivka suggests anticipated RF advances or increased threat. Closure of Ukrposhta branches in Konstantinovka from August 19 further indicates increasing threat to this logistics hub. Clashes reported near Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, Oleksandra-Kalynove, and Pleschiyivka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Pleschiyivka, Stepanivka, Yablunivka and Rusyn Yar in the Toretsk direction. STERNENKO (UA source) reports that Phoenix UAS tactical group is "cutting Russian logistics" in the Konstantinovka direction, providing video evidence of drone strikes on multiple RF vehicles and personnel.
Luhansk Oblast (Siversk Direction): RF forces report combat operations with drone-guided artillery and ATGM teams. RF MoD claims destruction of AFU stronghold in Krasny Liman direction. RF aims to advance 2 km to close a "fire bag" for AFU in Kremensky forests. Russian forces reportedly broke through Ukrainian defense lines in the Lyman district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Serebryanka, Vyyimka, Fedorivka, Pereyizne and towards Siversk in the Siversk direction. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Kolodezi in Donetsk People's Republic (Luhansk direction). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 63rd Brigade utilizing three FPV drones to neutralize a Russian tank threatening Ukrainian positions east of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast. RF MoD confirms liberation of Kolodezi and Voronoye.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): Sustained RF artillery and FPV drone attacks on Nikopol and surrounding communities. RF claims control of all settlements at the junction of DNR and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast after liberation of Iskra. Extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Nikopol confirmed. Ballistic missile strike on outskirts of Dnipro confirmed with damage to civilian property. Overnight drone attack on Pokrovska community, Synelnykivskyi district, caused fires at agricultural enterprises. RF MoD claims "liberation" of Voronoye in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetrovsk Regional State Administration) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopolshchyna. A ballistic missile threat on Synelnykove and a high-speed target from the east on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Explosions were heard in Pavlohrad.
Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkivskyi District): UA Air Force alerts for high-speed targets and KAB launches. RF claims improved position near Krasny Perviy, controlling ~6 km of road to Dvorechnaya. A substantial increase (estimated 40%) in Russian EW emissions has been detected in the Kharkiv sector, primarily targeting Ukrainian reconnaissance UAVs and degrading ISR capabilities. Continued RF reconnaissance UAVs in northern and eastern Kharkiv Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Khatnye and Fyholivka in the South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 4 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes in the past day.
Chernihiv Oblast: UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs, high-speed targets, and threat of strike UAVs. "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on a forward Ukrainian command post in Birino area confirmed. Ballistic missile impact in Honcharivske reported. RF claims destruction of a foreign mercenary legion's base. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Krasnyy Khutir of Chernihiv region. Colonelcassad reports Kinzhal strike near Desna and Geran/Gerbera strikes near Semenivka (Chernihiv Oblast).
Kherson Oblast (Left Bank Dnieper): UA reports destruction of an RF ammunition depot and four vehicles on the left bank. RF claims Lancet strike destroyed US M-777 howitzer and Ukrainian Bogdana SPG on right bank. Ukrainian Navy radio intercepts confirm loss of Russian Su-30SM fighter jet southeast of Snake Island. UA forces repelled 4-6 Russian army assaults. UA source claims reconnaissance units entered "Novaya Kakhovka" on the Kherson direction and are shelling enemy defenses. Southern Ukraine Defense Forces report continued strikes on enemy deployment areas, fire positions, and rear areas in the southern operational zone.
Odesa Oblast: STERNENKO reports groups of strike UAVs in the north and near Odesa Oblast. РБК-Україна reports an alert from Odesa Oblast Military Administration calling residents to shelters due to strike UAVs.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RF claims destruction of AFU ammunition depot. 578 RF strikes on 14 settlements over past day. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast. A 64-year-old man was wounded in a hostile attack on Polohivskyi district. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Tolstoy, Komyshuvakha, Zelene Pole, Maliyivka, Myrne, Zaporizke, Olhivske in the Novopavlivka direction. Colonelcassad reports VKC and missile forces conducted strikes on targets in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Kupyansk Axis: Previous reports indicated a decisive shift of RF main effort with the capture of Ivanivka. RF continues strikes on settlements. UA reports successful tank sorties and drone operations against RF personnel and equipment. Commander of "Achilles" Regiment Fedorenko (UA source) reports RF plans to occupy Kupyansk by August 24. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) reports the first mechanized attack by RF on the left bank of Kupyansk in a long time, involving 2 tanks, 3 MT-LBs, and ~40 personnel, which was repelled with destruction of enemy equipment.
Sumy Oblast: РБК-Україна (UA source) reports Ukrainian forces actively destroying the enemy in Sumy Oblast, pushing back Russians near Oleksiivka and Yunakivka. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video of a destroyed UA M577 command post vehicle in Sumy Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video showing an RF truck with ammunition epically destroyed by a Ukrainian drone on the way to Sumy Oblast. TASS reports that RF forces have improved their tactical position near Yunakovka, Sumy Oblast, and occupied new positions.
Overall Frontline: RF continues employment of FPV drone swarms and Lancet loitering munitions, with a reported 20% increase in Lancet strikes in the last 24 hours. UA inflicted significant personnel losses (1010 RF personnel in the last 24h, total 276,300 since year start). UA deep strikes into RF territory include the Syzran Oil Refinery (Samara Oblast), Olya seaport (Astrakhan Oblast), the "Elastic" gunpowder workshop in Ryazan Oblast, and a drone attack on Azot chemical plant in Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol Krai. 61 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed by UA. Prisoner exchange of 84 servicemen conducted.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
Ukrainian Forces: Maintain a defensive posture, repelling 56 RF offensive actions. UA continues to inflict significant losses on RF forces. UA leadership maintains a firm diplomatic stance on territorial integrity and conditions for peace talks. UA forces continue effective deep strikes into RF territory. UA 93rd Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" successfully cleared and took control of Hruzke and Vesele near Dobropillya. UA "Azov" 1st Corps confirmed clearing several settlements near Dobropillya and stopped RF attempts to break through. President Zelenskyy held Staff meeting discussing key issues and engaged in robust diplomatic activity with President Trump and European leaders. STERNENKO posts +280 FPV drones procured in the last 24 hours via fundraising, demonstrating continued public support for UA capabilities. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine has released a video featuring a 22-year-old female service member, Daria, discussing how the war has forced her to postpone personal dreams.
Russian Forces: Concentrating elite VDV units and deploying advanced EW systems (R-330ZH Zhitel, "Pole-21", Shipovnik-Aero) near Bakhmut/Chasiv Yar and Kharkiv. Repositioning S-300 battalions for surface-to-surface roles. Intensifying artillery, including TOS-1A thermobaric systems and KABs. RF Defense Minister Belousov actively engaged with military correspondents to control narrative and boost internal morale/recruitment. RF forces actively engaging UA drones, with 29 enemy UAVs reportedly destroyed overnight. Continued reliance on and demand for tactical drones (Mavic 3/3 Pro). RF Northern Fleet exercises involving 2,000 personnel and up to 14 ships/submarines.
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Air and Missile Strikes: RF possesses significant long-range strike capability with missiles (Iskander-M, Kinzhal, Sapsan - if claim is true) and a variety of drones (Geran/Shahed, Lancet, Italmas). They also continue to employ KAB glide bombs from tactical aviation. This allows them to target strategic and tactical targets deep within Ukrainian territory and support ground operations. RF reports firing 60 drones and 1 Iskander-M missile. UA Air Force reports enemy tactical aviation activity in the eastern direction. ASTRA reports that RF attacked Ukraine with a ballistic missile and 60 UAVs overnight.
EW and ISR: RF has demonstrated advanced EW capabilities, with detected increases in emissions in the Kharkiv sector, aimed at degrading UA ISR. They continue to employ a range of reconnaissance UAVs. RF is actively targeting UA UAV crews in Kherson Oblast. Colonelcassad's reference to "Berezina" as a "brain center of the radio-electronic front" suggests a high-level EW capability or command node. RF's continued use of reconnaissance UAVs near Zaporizhzhia.
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations
2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status
2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
MLCOA 1: Continued Consolidation and Gradual Advance on Chasiv Yar. RF forces will prioritize consolidating their gains in the "Kanal" micro-district, conducting probing attacks and heavy indirect fire preparation (KABs, thermobaric artillery) to soften UA defenses. They will likely attempt to incrementally expand their foothold to establish a more secure staging area for deeper assaults into the urban core of Chasiv Yar. This will be supported by continued high-volume EW to degrade UA ISR.
MLCOA 2: Intensified Long-Range Strike Campaign. RF will continue and likely increase ballistic missile, cruise missile, and drone (Shahed/Geran) strikes across Ukrainian territory, particularly targeting military-industrial sites, energy infrastructure, and logistics hubs. This is a punitive measure in response to UA deep strikes into RF territory and aims to degrade UA's war-fighting capacity and morale. Civilian casualties will continue. Strikes will also continue against border regions like Sumy and Kharkiv. RF claims of targeting UA C2 nodes and Starlink should be anticipated.
MLCOA 3: Fixing Operations on Secondary Axes. RF will maintain offensive pressure on the Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, and Sumy axes with localized attacks (e.g., small infantry groups, motorcycle assaults, limited armored probes) to fix UA forces and prevent redeployments to critical sectors like Chasiv Yar. The reported VDV/Spetsnaz offensive towards Sumy may evolve into a significant fixing operation, drawing UA resources to the north. RF will likely amplify claims of advances in these secondary sectors for information operations.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
MDCOA 1: Rapid Breakthrough and Encirclement of Konstantinovka/Pokrovsk. If UA defenses around Chasiv Yar or Pokrovsk are severely weakened, RF could commit significant armored reserves to achieve a rapid, deep penetration. This could lead to the encirclement of Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk, severing critical Ukrainian GLOCs and creating a major operational crisis. This would involve concentrated air, artillery, and EW support.
MDCOA 2: Expanded Ground Offensive from Sumy/Kharkiv Directions. RF could launch a new, larger-scale ground offensive from the Sumy or Kharkiv border regions, possibly aimed at creating a new "front," stretching UA resources, and forcing the redeployment of critical defensive assets away from Donetsk. This would likely involve multi-echelon attacks with substantial mechanized forces. The increased RF activity in Sumy Oblast and the presence of VDV/Spetsnaz indicate this remains a plausible, though resource-intensive, option.
MDCOA 3: Coordinated Cyberattack and Kinetic Strike on C2. RF could launch a highly coordinated cyberattack against key Ukrainian military C2 networks and Starlink infrastructure, immediately followed by precision kinetic strikes (missiles, drones) on identified command posts and communication nodes. This could severely degrade UA's ability to coordinate and respond effectively to a simultaneous ground offensive.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
END REPORT
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