Archived operational intelligence briefing
INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)
TIME: 142041Z AUG 25
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske Axis): RF forces, specifically elements of the 98th Guards Airborne Division (VDV), continue to concentrate in forward assembly areas between Bakhmut and Ivanivske, and have secured a foothold in eastern Ivanivske. Probing attacks towards eastern Chasiv Yar micro-district are ongoing, with reported fighting moving into adjacent forest. Air Force of Ukraine reports multiple KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation targeting Donetsk Oblast. RF sources claim "liberation" of Chasiv Yar (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). TASS confirms liberation of Shcherbynivka (Donetsk) by a Southern Group assault team, with MoD Russia explicitly stating units of the 103rd Motorised Rifle Regiment knocked the enemy out of Shcherbynivka. Colonelcassad reports UAV operators of the 103rd Motor Rifle Regiment discovered a long-term enemy strongpoint in Katerynivka, destroyed by a Krasnopol-M2 guided munition. RF forces have engaged in combat on the outskirts of Alexandrogad in the Velikomykhailovka direction. UA Border Guard Service's "Phoenix" unit destroyed an RF tank and BM-21 Grad MLRS in Donetsk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a drone hit in occupied Yenakiieve (Donetsk). Colonelcassad reports "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on a forward Ukrainian command post in the Birino area of Chernihiv Oblast, indicating RF deep strike capabilities beyond Donetsk. New reports confirm multiple drone strikes and detonations in occupied Yenakiieve, Donetsk Oblast, with Ukrainian sources indicating successful targeting, and ASTRA reporting a school was set on fire as a result (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for force concentration, tactical maneuvers, Ivanivske foothold, KAB launches, and current combat zone; MEDIUM for Chasiv Yar "liberation" claim; HIGH for FPV strikes, Shcherbynivka liberation, Torske engagement, MoD Russia confirmation of Shcherbynivka liberation by 103rd MRR, Marochko's statement on Dzerzhinsk, UA border guard destruction of tank/Grad, Krasnopol-M2 strike in Katerynivka, Pokrovsk stabilization claim, Operatyvnyi ZSU Fenix unit video and BDA, Операция Z / Russian Spring report on Shcherbynivka and 103rd MRR advance, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video on Pokrovsk infiltration and FPV strikes, Alexandrogad engagements, UA drone hit in Yenakiieve, RF Geran strikes on Chernihiv C2; HIGH for new Yenakiieve drone strikes, successful targeting, and school fire. LOW for Woen DV footage as independent confirmation of "Soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Aleksandrogra and Kamyshevakha," HIGH for its PSYOP intent).
Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovskoe Direction): UA source STERNENKO reports a critical "lack of infantry" ("піхоти нема") in this direction. Tsaplienko reports drone liquidation of an RF occupant in a fortified position. TASS reports Apty Alaudinov stating a "big breakthrough" on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, with significant RF advances. MoD Russia officially reports liberation of Iskra in DNR. Шеф Hayabusa reports an RF FPV drone burned a car on the Pavlohrad-Pokrovsk/Slavianka-Mezhova highway. STERNENKO reports a significant UA requirement for 1,457 drones in the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka direction. РБК-Україна and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report the situation on the Pokrovskoe direction is stabilizing, with UA forces destroying enemy elements. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides drone footage showing RF personnel attempting to infiltrate UA positions around Pokrovsk, engaging them with FPV drones, and resulting in casualties. RF forces have reportedly broken through into the village of Zolotyi Kolodyaz, with fighting ongoing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for UA source reports and FPV effectiveness; MEDIUM for implication of UA infantry shortage; HIGH for RF claims of breakthrough and territorial gains in Shcherbynivka and Iskra; HIGH for RF FPV effectiveness; HIGH for Pokrovsk stabilization claim; HIGH for Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights Pokrovsk stabilization report; HIGH for ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video on Pokrovsk infiltration and FPV strikes; HIGH for Zolotyi Kolodyaz breakthrough).
Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UA source Mykolaivskyi Vaniok reports the capture of a new RF prisoner from the 150th Division by Azov units in the Toretsk direction. RBK-Ukraine reports significant Russian losses in the areas of responsibility of the 1st Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine "Azov." Mandatory evacuation of families with children has been introduced in some settlements of Donetsk Oblast, including Druzhkivka. Alex Parker Returns reports that all Ukrposhta branches in Konstantinovka are closing from August 19, suggesting potential RF advance or increased threat to this key logistics hub. Операция Z reports mandatory evacuation of families with children announced in Druzhkivka and neighboring settlements near the Russian army's breakthrough point. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for capture; MEDIUM for broader conditions; HIGH for RF losses; HIGH for mandatory evacuation; HIGH for Ukrposhta closure implying logistical impact).
Luhansk Oblast (Siversk Direction): RF sources report combat operations by "3rd Shock" involving drone-guided artillery or direct fire engagements. MoD Russia reports a Metis ATGM team destroying an AFU stronghold in the Krasny Liman direction. TASS reports Marochko stating that Russian military needs to advance approximately 2 km to close a "fire bag" for AFU in Kremensky forests of LPR. TASS reports that Ukrainian forces have received orders to intensify shelling of LNR with cruise missiles and strike UAVs, citing Pasechnik. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian forces broke through Ukrainian defense lines in the Lyman district. Воин DV provides video footage showing a Russian military drone operator deploying an FPV drone that strikes a target, with the caption "Nightmares of the AFU in Serebryansky forest." Старше Эдды posts photos with the caption "Будни войны. Инженерные подразделения группировки войск «Центр» разминируют освобождённую территорию Донбасса." Рыбарь reports on the ongoing situation. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for specific unit involvement; HIGH for ongoing combat activity and ATGM strike; HIGH for RF tactical objective; HIGH for TASS report on increased UA strikes; HIGH for reported clashes and breakthrough; HIGH for Воин DV video confirming FPV drone operations in Serebryansky forest; HIGH for Старше Эдды photos on mine clearance; HIGH for Рыбарь report on situation).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): UA source Serhii Lysak reports sustained RF artillery and FPV drone attacks throughout the day targeting Nikopol and surrounding communities. Colonelcassad reports exclusive footage of the defeat of the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBr) in the Dnipropetrovsk direction. MoD Russia confirms the liberation of Iskra (Donetsk People's Republic). TASS reports RF controls all settlements at the junction of DNR and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast after the liberation of Iskra. Шеф Hayabusa reports that RF forces are attacking residential areas in Mezheva, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with KABs. Serhii Lysak / Dnipropropetrovsk ODA (OVA) provides photo evidence of extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Nikopol. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning: "High-speed target in the north of Dnipropetrovsk region, moving south," followed by an "All clear!" STERNENKO reports "Pavlohrad/suburbs under ballistic strike." The government has adopted the first package of a comprehensive program to support frontline regions, including Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Олександр Вілкул is conducting a briefing on the results of 14 Aug 25, implying continued local government operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Nikopolshchyna attacks; HIGH for RF UAS operations and tactical success; HIGH for liberation of Iskra and control of junction; HIGH for KAB strikes in Mezheva; HIGH for Nikopolshchyna civilian infrastructure damage; HIGH for Air Force of Ukraine high-speed target warning, implying missile/UAV threat; HIGH for STERNENKO report on Pavlohrad ballistic strike; HIGH for Serhii Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk ODA (OVA) report on support program; HIGH for Air Force of Ukraine all clear; HIGH for Vilkul briefing).
Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkivskyi District): UA Air Force issues a "Warning! Kharkivskyi district!" alert. TASS reports Russian servicemen, having improved their position near Krasny Perviy, have taken control of approximately 6 km of the road leading to Dvorechnaya. Oleg Syniehubov reports 6 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were subjected to enemy strikes. ASTRA reports one person killed and one injured in Russian shelling of Kharkiv Oblast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Kharkiv Oblasts. Дневник Десантника reports a GUR reconnaissance group was eliminated by RF forces. Oleg Syniehubov reports RF attacked a civilian vehicle near Kupyansk, with ASTRA reporting two killed by drone attack. WarGonzo reports Msta-S crews of the 44th Army Corps conducted a "dense sweep" in Kharkiv Oblast. Oleg Syniehubov posts photo messages regarding energy issues in Kharkiv Oblast. Операция Z (Russian Spring Military Correspondents) posts a photo message claiming Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Poltava may be under threat if Donbas is lost, citing "The Independent." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for warning, UA drone operations; HIGH for RF ISR and fire pressure; MEDIUM for veracity of claimed RF territorial advance, HIGH for its informational intent; HIGH for civilian casualties; HIGH for KAB launches; HIGH for GUR elimination; HIGH for Kupyansk civilian vehicle attack; HIGH for RF artillery activity; HIGH for Syniehubov energy report; HIGH for Операция Z photo message, specifically for its informational intent and direct threat assessment.).
Chernihiv Oblast: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in the Chernihiv region. Colonelcassad provides a photo claiming to show what was hit by a missile strike on August 12 in Chernihiv Oblast. High-speed targets detected in Chernihiv Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports threat of strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast. Филолог в засаде reports enemy concentration in Chernihiv Oblast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning: "Chernihiv and Kyiv regions - threat of enemy UAVs." Colonelcassad reports "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on a forward Ukrainian command post in the Birino area of Chernihiv Oblast, confirming RF deep strike capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for all previous reports; HIGH for new warning of enemy UAVs in Chernihiv/Kyiv; HIGH for RF Geran strikes on Chernihiv C2).
Kherson Oblast (Left Bank Dnieper): UA source Tsaplienko reports an RF ammunition depot was destroyed on the left bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson Oblast. Tsaplienko also reports border guards destroying an RF floating craft and four vehicles. Colonelcassad reports "Ulyanovsk paratroopers" using "Msta-B" howitzers with "Krasnopol" precision-guided munitions to destroy UAV control points and manpower. TASS reports an RF Lancet strike destroyed an American M-777 howitzer and a Ukrainian Bogdana self-propelled artillery unit on the right bank of the Dnieper. ASTRA reports on an alleged UA drone attack on a water park. Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny reports enemy activating shelling on several directions. Ukrainian Navy obtained radio intercepts confirming the loss of a Russian Su-30SM fighter jet that was performing tasks southeast of Snake Island. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts a photo message confirming the destruction of an RF Su-30SM. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for ammo depot destruction, interdiction; MEDIUM for unit specificity, HIGH for precision artillery strike capability; HIGH for Lancet strike on M-777 and Bogdana, MEDIUM for BDA; HIGH for water park attack; HIGH for repelled assaults; HIGH for Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny report; HIGH for Su-30SM loss; HIGH for Operatyvnyi ZSU photo confirmation).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Colonelcassad reports the destruction of an AFU ammunition depot. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a Lancet strike UAV in the Lozove-Mezenivka area. Colonelcassad reports on a Russian tank making a path for infantry through a minefield. RF MOD reports a Grad MLRS crew thwarted an attempt to rotate AFU personnel. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Uspenivka, Novoandriyivka, Prymorske, Orikhiv, Chervona Krynytsya. Дневник Десантника requests donations for the 7th Airborne Assault Division for drones and Starlink. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports approval of shelter construction on Khortytsia Island. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny reports enemy activating shelling on several directions. Два майора provides a photo message with a map indicating tactical elements and road markers. 🇺🇦 Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration 🇺🇦 issued an "ATTENTION" alert at 19:52:58Z. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for ammo depot destruction, Lancet activity; HIGH for tank breaching; HIGH for MLRS interdiction; HIGH for RF airstrikes; HIGH for RF logistical needs; HIGH for Khortytsia shelter approval; HIGH for Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny report; HIGH for Два майора map image, indicating continued RF operational focus in Zaporizhzhia; HIGH for Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 collection report; HIGH for new Zaporizhzhia OVA alert.).
Kupyansk Axis: The previous daily report indicated a decisive shift of RF main effort to the Kupyansk axis, with capture of Ivanivka and intensified preparatory fire. Oleg Syniehubov reports on RF strikes on 6 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast. BUTUSOV PLUS provides a video documenting a "risky but successful sortie" by a Ukrainian tank close to enemy positions. Oleg Syniehubov reports RF attacked a civilian vehicle near Kupyansk. ASTRA reports two people were killed in a Russian drone attack on a vehicle under Kupyansk. Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Kharkiv Oblast. Военкор Котенок reports contradictory information regarding the situation near Petropavlivka, stating UA is attempting counterattacks. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy tactical aviation activity in the northeastern direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Kupyansk axis shift and Ivanivka capture; HIGH for RF strikes; HIGH for UA tank sortie; HIGH for civilian vehicle attack and casualties; HIGH for KAB launches; HIGH for Petropavlivka counterattack report; HIGH for RF tactical aviation activity).
Overall Frontline: RF continues to employ FPV drone swarms and Lancet loitering munitions, with a reported 20% increase in Lancet strikes in the last 24 hours. RF sources claim successful destruction of UA drone repeater stations and command posts. UA source BUTUSOV PLUS provides video evidence of an FPV drone strike against RF soldiers. STERNENKO provides video showing UA special forces downing 6 drones in the Zaporizhzhia direction. RF MOD released a video showing strikes against Ukrainian assets, including 'LELEKA-100' and 'SHARK-M' drones, and 'BERGEPANZER 2' and 'KOZAK' vehicles. Tsaplienko reports an FPV drone being caught in "Yahoza" (razor wire) and "Putanka" (tangled wire) nets. General Staff of AFU reports approximately 990 RF personnel losses in the last 24 hours, and 276,300 RF personnel losses since the beginning of the year. Air Force of Ukraine reports 24 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed. A new prisoner exchange of 84 servicemen by each side was conducted. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports the dismissal of the 47th OMBr battalion commander. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts a video showing "collective suicide of Russian motorcycle assault troops" being turned into "meat lego," indicating a successful UA engagement and significant RF casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for all previous reports; HIGH for STERNENKO's current assessment; HIGH for MoD Russia video on prisoner return; HIGH for DeepState POW return; HIGH for Два майора video; HIGH for STERNENKO's Hyena Group video and counter-UAS claim; HIGH for Operatyvnyi ZSU Fenix unit video and BDA; HIGH for Kotsnews updates; HIGH for БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing RF soldier engaging FPV drone; HIGH for MoD Russia awards photo messages; HIGH for MoD Russia drone video; HIGH for Operatyvnyi ZSU Su-30SM confirmation; HIGH for Fighterbomber Su-35 image as RF air asset presence or propaganda; HIGH for TASS UAV interception claim; HIGH for Operatyvnyi ZSU motorcycle assault video and BDA).
Deep Rear (Sumi Oblast/Tatarstan/Belgorod/Kyiv Oblast/Chernihiv Oblast/Dnipropetrovsk Oblast/Zaporizhzhia Oblast/Volgograd/Rostov-on-Don/Bryansk/Kursk/Arzamas/Lipetsk): UA source Alex Parker Returns reports detention of four individuals in Tatarstan attempting to impersonate RF servicemen with "imitations" of Orlan-10 drones. RF sources report ongoing drone attacks on Belgorod, with dozens of targets engaged. Operatsiya Z reports "Massive enemy attacks on Belgorod Oblast - civilians killed and wounded." ASTRA provides video of Belgorod Governor Gladkov confirming the attack on the government building, with visible damage. TASS reports Ukrainian servicemen are disappearing by platoons and companies near Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports activity of reconnaissance UAVs and KAB launches in Sumy Oblast, and high-speed targets in Chernihiv Oblast. Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) announces air raid alert for Kyiv due to ballistic missile threat from the north, with subsequent "All clear!" ASTRA and RBK-Ukraine report a Ukrainian drone attack on the Volgograd Oil Refinery (NPP "Lukoil"), resulting in spilled and burning oil products. Operatyvnyi ZSU provides satellite imagery appearing to confirm significant damage. RF MOD reports 44 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over regions of the Russian Federation overnight. TASS reports RF FSB claims of destroying Ukrainian long-range missile production, including "Sapsan" missiles. ASTRA reports three people injured in a drone attack on Belgorod, and photo damage to a 16-story residential building in Volgograd. ASTRA reports a child and a man were injured in a Russian missile strike in Sumy Oblast. Kotsnews provides multiple videos from Belgorod showing aftermath of drone attacks. TASS confirms RF air defense shot down 8 Ukrainian UAVs over Belgorod Oblast and 2 over Krasnodar Krai. TASS reports RF Investigative Committee opened terrorism cases for attacks on civilian targets in Rostov-on-Don and Belgorod. TASS reports a powerful explosion in Rostov-on-Don after a missile danger alert, with multiple sources corroborating a drone impact on a multi-story building and 13 injured. Dn. Desantnika reports a UA drone attack on the Druzhba oil pipeline in Bryansk Oblast. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ explicitly states that SBS ZSU, GUR MOU, and other elements attacked the Volgograd Oil Refinery. TASS reports RF struck HIMARS positions with an Iskander-M in Zhykhove, Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad video shows a drone strike against an RF T-80BVM tank near Kiyanitsa, Sumy Oblast. ASTRA reports police lieutenant colonel and senior criminal investigator injured in strike on district court building in Belgorod. Rosaviatsiya has introduced temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd Airport. ASTRA reports a Ukrainian UAV struck "Belgorod Arena". Поддубный reports that Belgorod continues to endure AFU attacks, with air raid alerts every 20 minutes, and mobile fire groups and AD working in the suburbs. Север.Реалии provides videos of Belgorod being attacked by drones. TASS reports three civilians were injured in drone attacks by AFU in Kursk border areas. STERNENKO reports a "drone safety" alert for Saratov, Bryansk, Stavropol, Dagestan, and North Caucasus. ASTRA and Alex Parker Returns report on a federal judge killed in Volgograd Oblast, with STERNENKO reporting a "veteran of the Special Military Operation" as the killer. Два майора posts a message from the Belgorod governor, likely related to ongoing drone threats. РБК-Україна reports explosions in occupied Yenakiieve, DNR, due to unknown drone attacks. ASTRA reports over 2000 sq.m. of production facilities damaged at the Arzamas Instrument-Making Plant due to a UAV attack (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk Oblast Governor) reports an air alert regime introduced across Lipetsk Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for Tatarstan detention and purpose; HIGH for Belgorod drone activity, casualties, and government building attack; MEDIUM for TASS report veracity on Sumy disappearances; HIGH for UA Air Force alerts, KAB launches, and high-speed targets; HIGH for Kyiv ballistic alerts; HIGH for Volgograd NPP attack and BDA; HIGH for RF MOD UAV shootdown claims; HIGH for TASS FSB missile claims and corroboration on Sapsan destruction; HIGH for Sumy civilian casualties; HIGH for Rostov-on-Don explosion and casualties; HIGH for Bryansk pipeline attack; HIGH for UA official claim of Volgograd strike; HIGH for HIMARS strike; HIGH for Sumy Oblast tank strike; HIGH for ASTRA Belgorod district court strike; HIGH for Volgograd airport restrictions; HIGH for Volgograd refinery damage specifics; HIGH for Belgorod Arena strike; HIGH for Poddubny's report on Belgorod attacks and RF AD activity; HIGH for Север.Реалии videos of Belgorod attacks; HIGH for TASS Kursk casualties; HIGH for STERNENKO drone safety alert for RF regions; HIGH for ASTRA/Alex Parker Returns/STERNENKO reports on Volgograd judge incident; HIGH for Belgorod governor message on drone threats; HIGH for RBK-Україна Yenakiieve explosions; HIGH for Arzamas plant damage; HIGH for Lipetsk air alert).
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
Ukrainian Forces: Maintain a defensive posture, particularly in Donetsk Oblast. Training images of tanks suggest ongoing readiness efforts. Despite challenges (e.g., claimed infantry shortages), UA continues to inflict losses on RF forces (990 RF personnel losses reported by General Staff, and 1432 tanks / 3087 AFVs, 276,300 personnel losses since year start). UA leadership maintains a firm diplomatic stance on territorial integrity and conditions for peace talks. UA sources publicly acknowledge tactical challenges (e.g., infantry shortages in Pokrovsk). UA forces continue drone operations into RF territory. UA helicopter pilots are reportedly engaging RF "Shaheds" at close range. UA Cabinet of Ministers proposes changes to mobilization deferment rules for students and educators, and changes to booking rules for agricultural enterprises. General Prosecutor's Office reports 22 suspicions handed to Kyiv City State Administration officials. Zaporizhzhia OVA reported the delivery of new specialized equipment to communities. UA border guards are conducting successful interdiction operations. UA airborne forces are preparing Ukrainian soil for autumn sowing. The SBU released exclusive video of the 14 August prisoner exchange. UA airborne fighting a Russian assault near Kursk. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the appointment of Oleksandr Rashevsky as the new commander of the National Police of Ukraine's "Lyut" (Fury) Brigade. STERNENKO posts a photo message with the caption "Army reform has taken place!", suggesting internal military reforms. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a new wave of exposures in Bukovyna, with 15 individuals notified of suspicion for budget embezzlement and environmental crimes. РБК-Україна reports the government has appointed a temporary head of ARMA (Asset Recovery and Management Agency). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the Ukrainian Orthodox Church-Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP) must sever all legal ties with the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) by August 24, affecting internal religious and political control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for all previous reports; HIGH for new commander appointment; HIGH for UA public support messaging; HIGH for Zaporizhzhia OVA awards photo messages as morale-boosting efforts; HIGH for RBK-Україна report on Zelenskyy/Milei call; HIGH for STERNENKO's report on army reform; HIGH for Zaporizhzhia OVA pre-medical aid photos, indicating civilian preparedness; HIGH for Офіс Генерального прокурора report on Bukovyna; HIGH for РБК-Україна Khmelnytskyi transport; HIGH for Генеральний штаб ЗСУ training photos, confirming international support; HIGH for Zaporizhzhia OVA support program; HIGH for ARMA appointment; HIGH for UOC-MP directive, indicating governmental control measures and efforts to counter RF influence.).
Russian Forces: Concentrating elite VDV units and deploying advanced EW systems (R-330ZH Zhitel) near Bakhmut/Chasiv Yar. Repositioning S-300 battalions for potential surface-to-surface roles. Intensifying artillery, including TOS-1A thermobaric systems. RF Defense Minister Belousov is meeting with military correspondents to discuss drone production, supplies, and social support. RF forces are actively engaging UA drones. RF source Zvezdets Mangust claims RF command has moved "a number of units and formations from the North" to the Southern and Southern part of Eastern operational zones. RF source Voenkor Kotenok video features RF soldiers requesting Mavic 3 and Mavic 3 Pro drones. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ provides a video showing field dental clinics. Два майора is still requesting charitable support for forces. TASS reports Northern Fleet has begun exercises involving 2,000 military personnel, up to 14 ships and submarines. ASTRA reports RF police detained Russian cadets launching drones in Tatarstan. STERNENKO reports a "drone safety" alert for multiple RF oblasts. RF's Parliament speaker Volodin has arrived in Pyongyang, North Korea. НгП раZVедка provides an update indicating that ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine will continue regardless of US diplomatic initiatives. TASS indicates that captured Ukrainian soldier Alexey Levchenko claims his brigade consists of "disabled and mentally ill people." TASS indicates that a commander of an Airborne Reconnaissance Battalion (callsign Manul) stating that after "liberating Chasov Yar," fighting has moved into the adjacent forest. Kadyrov_95 posts video of Akhmat battalion operating in Vovchansk (Kharkiv direction). WarGonzo claims RF forces are taking control of the Dobropillya-Kramatorsk highway. TASS reports Russian Ministry of Justice added "Reporters Without Borders" to the list of undesirable organizations. MoD Russia video shows 103rd Motor Rifle Regiment liberating Shcherbynivka in Donetsk. Два майора reports Belgorod governor indicating probable provocations on the border and enemy concentration on Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod directions. TASS reports special flight Il-96 for RF-US summit arrived in Anchorage. MoD Russia posts multiple photo messages celebrating the floating out of the latest frigate of the Project 22350 Admiral Amelko in Saint Petersburg. MoD Russia releases video of a platoon leader 'Zatvor' describing captured foreign weaponry (M4 assault rifle, Belgian 7.62mm machine guns) during the "Zeleny Gai liberation." Kadyrov_95 posts videos of urban development and construction in Grozny. Два майора posted a video titled "Frontline Armor" showing two armed soldiers expressing gratitude for support, suggesting continued reliance on public/volunteer funding for equipment. Colonelcassad also posted a slide titled "NATO Logistics: The West is Preparing for War," likely a propaganda piece. Новости Москвы reports Putin and Lavrov flying to Alaska on Friday (HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo posts photos referencing Abkhazia, implying historical grievances or potential for future actions (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for VDV concentration, EW deployment, S-300 repositioning, artillery intensification; HIGH for Belousov meeting; HIGH for counter-drone actions; MEDIUM for unit redeployments; HIGH for Mavic requests, field dental clinics, charity requests; HIGH for Northern Fleet exercises; MEDIUM for Orlan crew detention, Tatarstan cadets, HIGH for drone safety alerts; HIGH for NK delegation; HIGH for continued ballistic strikes intent; HIGH for Levchenko surrender IO; HIGH for Manul Chasiv Yar claim; HIGH for Kadyrov_95 Vovchansk video; HIGH for WarGonzo Dobropillya highway claim; HIGH for Reporters Without Borders report; HIGH for MoD Russia Shcherbynivka video; HIGH for Два майора border provocation report; HIGH for TASS Anchorage flight; HIGH for MoD Russia frigate photos; HIGH for MoD Russia captured foreign weaponry; LOW for Kadyrov_95 Grozny urban development as direct military, HIGH for IO intent on stability/progress; HIGH for Два майора "Frontline Armor" video, indicating continued reliance on and promotion of volunteer support; HIGH for Colonelcassad "NATO Logistics" image, as an indicator of RF propaganda and threat perception; HIGH for Новости Москвы on Putin/Lavrov flight; MEDIUM for WarGonzo Abkhazia reference, HIGH for its IO potential).
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Intentions:
Russian Forces:
Ukrainian Forces:
Russian Forces:
Ukrainian Forces:
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
Successes:
Setbacks:
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
Russian Propaganda (HIGH):
Ukrainian Counter-Propaganda (HIGH):
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
Ukrainian Public Sentiment:
Russian Public Sentiment:
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
Support for Ukraine (HIGH):
Support for Russia (HIGH):
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
INTELLIGENCE GAPS:
RECOMMENDATIONS:
END REPORT
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