Archived operational intelligence briefing
INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)
TIME: 141911Z AUG 25
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske Axis): RF forces, specifically elements of the 98th Guards Airborne Division (VDV), continue to concentrate in forward assembly areas between Bakhmut and Ivanivske. RF has secured a foothold in eastern Ivanivske, likely to fix UA forces and secure a southern flank for the main Chasiv Yar assault. Probing attacks towards eastern Chasiv Yar micro-district are ongoing. Air Force of Ukraine reports multiple Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches by enemy tactical aviation targeting Donetsk Oblast. TASS indicates that after "liberating Chasov Yar," fighting has moved into the adjacent forest, where Russian forces are destroying "pedestrian groups" and "UAV control points." Colonelcassad provides video of FPV drone strikes by RF "CENTER" grouping destroying a Ukrainian temporary deployment point (PVD). TASS confirms liberation of Shcherbynivka (Donetsk) by a Southern Group assault team, who report encountering drones and kamikazes. MoD Russia confirms this liberation and explicitly states units of the 103rd Motorised Rifle Regiment knocked the enemy out of Shcherbynivka. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian forces broke through Ukrainian defense lines in the Lyman district, Donetsk region. Operatyvnyi ZSU provides video of a UA 63rd OMBr tank engaging RF FPV drones and personnel at close range in Torske on the Lyman direction. TASS reports Military expert Marochko stating that after the liberation of Shcherbynivka, UA forces will not be able to attack near Dzerzhinsk in DNR. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the "Phoenix" unit of the State Border Guard Service destroyed an enemy tank and a BM-21 Grad MLRS in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad reports that UAV operators of the 103rd Motor Rifle Regiment (msrp) discovered a long-term enemy strongpoint in Katerynivka, destroyed by a Krasnopol-M2 guided munition fired by a 152-mm 2A65 Msta-B howitzer crew of the 238th Guards Artillery Brigade, with an Orlan-30 UAV providing target illumination. РБК-Україна reports that the situation on the Pokrovskoe direction is stabilizing, with UA forces destroying enemy elements, citing the General Staff. Оперативний ЗСУ provides video footage of drone operations from the "Fenix" unit of the State Border Guard Service, demonstrating destruction of RF tank, Grad MLRS, and other vehicles in Donetsk Oblast, indicating ongoing UA counter-offensive and interdiction in the sector. Операция Z, citing "Military Correspondents of Russian Spring," provides video footage and a report claiming "Liberation of Shcherbynivka: fighters of the 103rd regiment continue the offensive from Dzerzhinsk to Konstantinovka." This re-affirms RF claims of territorial gains and outlines broader operational intent for the 103rd MRR in this sector. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides drone footage showing RF personnel attempting to infiltrate UA positions around Pokrovsk, engaging them with FPV drones, and resulting in casualties. This directly confirms RF efforts at small-unit infiltration and UA's effective counter-tactics in this sector. NEW: Colonelcassad reports RF forces have engaged in combat on the outskirts of Alexandrogad in the Velikomykhailovka direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for force concentration, tactical maneuvers, Ivanivske foothold, KAB launches, and reported current combat zone; MEDIUM for Chasiv Yar "liberation" claim; HIGH for FPV strikes, Shcherbynivka liberation; HIGH for Lyman breakthrough; HIGH for Torske engagement; HIGH for MoD Russia confirmation of Shcherbynivka liberation by 103rd MRR; HIGH for Marochko's statement on Dzerzhinsk; HIGH for UA border guard destruction of tank/Grad; HIGH for Krasnopol-M2 strike in Katerynivka; HIGH for Pokrovsk stabilization claim; HIGH for Operatyvnyi ZSU Fenix unit video and BDA; HIGH for Операция Z / Russian Spring report on Shcherbynivka and 103rd MRR advance; HIGH for ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video on Pokrovsk infiltration and FPV strikes; HIGH for Alexandrogad engagements).
Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovskoe Direction): UA source STERNENKO reports a critical "lack of infantry" ("піхоти нема") in the Pokrovsk direction. Tsaplienko reports video of a drone entering a fortified position on the Pokrovskoe direction, liquidating an occupant. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports civilian assistance in Pokrovsk for identifying saboteurs. TASS reports Apty Alaudinov stating a "big breakthrough" on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, with significant RF advances. Шеф Hayabusa reports an RF FPV drone burned a car on the Pavlohrad-Pokrovsk/Slavianka-Mezhova highway. STERNENKO reports a significant UA requirement for 1,457 drones in the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka direction. MoD Russia provides video of a T-72B3M tank crew wiping out an enemy stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. RF MOD officially reports liberation of Shcherbynivka and Iskra in DNR. BUTUSOV PLUS reports continued "hide-and-seek" drone operations in Pokrovskoe direction. Операция Z reports RF FPV drone operators are destroying militants in the Pokrovskoe direction. Kotsnews provides video of drone footage from under Pokrovsk. Шеф Hayabusa provides video of drone footage capturing military activity and destruction of military vehicles on the Pokrovskoe direction. РБК-Україна reports that the situation on the Pokrovskoe direction is stabilizing, with UA forces destroying enemy elements, citing the General Staff. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo message reporting the situation on the Pokrovskoe direction is stabilizing, with UA forces destroying enemy elements, citing the General Staff. This is a direct confirmation of the RBK-Ukraine report. Два майора provides a photo message with the caption "Zaporizhzhia direction," showing a map indicating tactical elements (red starbursts) and road markers, potentially providing RF-sourced intelligence on their tactical operations or intentions in this critical sector. This is a direct update on RF's view of the Zaporizhzhia direction, implying active engagement. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides drone footage showing RF personnel attempting to infiltrate UA positions around Pokrovsk, engaging them with FPV drones, and resulting in casualties. This directly confirms RF efforts at small-unit infiltration and UA's effective counter-tactics in this sector. NEW: Шеф Hayabusa reports RF forces have broken through into the village of Zolotyi Kolodyaz and fighting is ongoing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for UA source reports and FPV effectiveness; MEDIUM for implication of UA infantry shortage; HIGH for RF claims of breakthrough and territorial gains in Shcherbynivka and Iskra; HIGH for RF FPV effectiveness; HIGH for Kotsnews video; HIGH for Шеф Hayabusa video; HIGH for Pokrovsk stabilization claim; HIGH for Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights Pokrovsk stabilization report; HIGH for Два майора map image, indicating continued RF operational focus in Zaporizhzhia; HIGH for ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video on Pokrovsk infiltration and FPV strikes; HIGH for Zolotyi Kolodyaz breakthrough).
Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UA source Mykolaivskyi Vaniok reports the capture of a new RF prisoner from the 150th Division by Azov units in the Toretsk direction. RBK-Ukraine reports significant Russian losses in the areas of responsibility of the 1st Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine "Azov" in the Operational-Tactical Group "Donetsk". Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Scherbynivka, Yablunivka, Rusyn Yar and towards Stepanivka. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that mandatory evacuation of families with children has been introduced in some settlements of Donetsk Oblast. Alex Parker Returns reports that all Ukrposhta branches in Konstantinovka are closing from August 19, suggesting potential RF advance or increased threat to this key logistics hub. РБК-Україна posts a photo message with the caption "Mandatory evacuation announced in Druzhkivka and several villages in Donetsk Oblast," confirming the official nature of these evacuations and reinforcing the deteriorating security situation in these areas due to ongoing combat operations. Mash на Донбассе reports a fatal accident in Yasinovka, with video showing a dust/smoke plume and a person fleeing. While the context is a civilian accident, its occurrence in a combat zone may suggest indirect impact of conflict on civilian life/safety, or possibly an undeclared military incident. Операция Z reports mandatory evacuation of families with children announced in Druzhkivka and neighboring settlements near the Russian army's breakthrough point, citing "Military Correspondents of Russian Spring." This directly confirms the localized deterioration of the security situation in these areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for capture; MEDIUM for broader conditions; HIGH for RF losses; HIGH for mandatory evacuation; MEDIUM for Ukrposhta closure implying RF advance, HIGH for its logistical impact; HIGH for РБК-Україна photo message confirming mandatory evacuation; LOW for Mash на Донбассе direct military relevance, MEDIUM for impact on civilian environment in combat zone; HIGH for Операция Z report on mandatory evacuation).
Luhansk Oblast (Siversk Direction): RF sources report combat operations by "3rd Shock" involving drone-guided artillery or direct fire engagements. MoD Russia reports a Metis ATGM team destroying an AFU stronghold in the Krasny Liman direction. TASS reports Marochko stating that Russian military needs to advance approximately 2 km to close a "fire bag" for AFU in Kremensky forests of LPR. TASS reports that military personnel of the 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces transmitted the coordinates of the command post to the Russian Armed Forces. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Novovodyane, Karpivka, Ridkodub, Kolodyazi and Torske in the Lyman direction, and Hryhorivka, Novoselivka and Pereyizne in the Siversk direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian forces broke through Ukrainian defense lines in the Lyman district. TASS reports that Ukrainian forces have received orders to intensify shelling of LNR with cruise missiles and strike UAVs, citing Pasechnik. Воин DV provides video footage showing a Russian military drone operator deploying an FPV drone that strikes a target, with the caption "Nightmares of the AFU in Serebryansky forest." This confirms active drone operations and continued combat in the Serebryansky forest sector on the Siversk direction. Старше Эдды posts photos with the caption "Будни войны. Инженерные подразделения группировки войск «Центр» разминируют освобождённую территорию Донбасса." This indicates continued RF engineering efforts in occupied territories, including mine clearance, which supports offensive operations or consolidation of gains. Colonelcassad provides a video captioned "Кошмары ВСУ в Серебрянском лесу", reinforcing RF FPV drone operations and claims of success in this sector. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for specific unit involvement; HIGH for ongoing combat activity and ATGM strike; HIGH for RF tactical objective; MEDIUM for TASS report veracity on UA defection, HIGH for its informational intent; HIGH for reported clashes and breakthrough; HIGH for TASS report on increased UA strikes; HIGH for Воин DV video confirming FPV drone operations in Serebryansky forest; HIGH for Старше Эдды photos on mine clearance; HIGH for Colonelcassad video confirming drone operations).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): UA source Serhii Lysak reports sustained RF artillery and FPV drone attacks throughout the day targeting Nikopol and surrounding communities. Colonelcassad reports exclusive footage of the defeat of the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBr) in the Dnipropetrovsk direction. Воин DV reports drone operators of the 36th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade destroying enemy manpower in the vicinity of Iskra, on the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. MoD Russia confirms the liberation of Iskra (Donetsk People's Republic). TASS reports RF controls all settlements at the junction of DNR and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast after the liberation of Iskra. Шеф Hayabusa reports that RF forces are attacking residential areas in Mezheva, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with KABs. Serhii Lysak / Dnipropropetrovsk ODA (OVA) provides photo evidence of extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Nikopol and the surrounding communities of Marhanets, Myriv, and Pokrovsk due to enemy drone and artillery attacks throughout the day. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning: "High-speed target in the north of Dnipropetrovsk region, moving south." This indicates a potential missile or long-range UAV threat in the area, reinforcing the ongoing kinetic activity and the need for vigilance. STERNENKO reports "Pavlohrad/suburbs under ballistic strike." This confirms a deep strike on a major city in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, reinforcing the ongoing kinetic activity and threat to the region. Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports that the government has adopted the first package of a comprehensive program to support frontline regions, including Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This indicates ongoing efforts to mitigate the impact of conflict on civilian life. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues an "All clear!" for the threat in the oblasts, including Dnipropetrovsk, indicating the end of the immediate air threat. NEW: Олександр Вілкул is conducting a briefing on the results of 14 Aug 25, implying continued local government operations and management of conflict impacts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Nikopolshchyna attacks; HIGH for RF UAS operations and tactical success; HIGH for liberation of Iskra and control of junction; HIGH for KAB strikes in Mezheva; HIGH for Nikopolshchyna civilian infrastructure damage; HIGH for Air Force of Ukraine high-speed target warning, implying missile/UAV threat; HIGH for STERNENKO report on Pavlohrad ballistic strike; HIGH for Serhii Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk ODA (OVA) report on support program; HIGH for Air Force of Ukraine all clear; HIGH for Vilkul briefing).
Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkivskyi District): UA Air Force issues a "Warning! Kharkivskyi district!" alert. OTU "Kharkiv" reports on the "STRIKS" unit of the 4th Border Guard Detachment increasing the effectiveness of strikes. TASS reports Russian servicemen, having improved their position near Krasny Perviy, have taken control of approximately 6 km of the road leading to Dvorechnaya, Kharkiv Oblast. Олег Синєгубов reports 6 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were subjected to enemy strikes. ASTRA reports one person killed and one injured in Russian shelling of Kharkiv Oblast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Kharkiv Oblasts. Дневник Десантника reports a GUR reconnaissance group was eliminated by RF forces in the Kharkiv direction. Олег Синєгубов reports RF attacked a civilian vehicle near Kupyansk. ASTRA reports two people were killed in a Russian drone attack on a vehicle near Kupyansk. WarGonzo reports Msta-S crews of the 44th Army Corps conducted a "dense sweep" in Kharkiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника posts photos with the caption "Kharkiv direction", showing military personnel in what appears to be a field or forest, possibly indicating RF ground force presence or preparations on this axis. One image shows RF military personnel. Воин DV provides drone footage with text overlays indicating operational details, including reconnaissance and explosions, followed by images of captured Ukrainian military equipment including a Ukrainian flag and an American flag patch, suggesting successful RF ground operations/engagements in Kharkiv Oblast or adjacent border areas. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a video message with the caption "KVN. Ambush. Classic.," which, while the content description is ambiguous, is from an RF military source and could potentially indicate tactical operations or training relevant to Kharkiv or other active fronts, particularly given the "Ambush" caption. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, posts a photo message outlining a new government support program for frontline regions. While not directly military, this indicates the continued impact of conflict on the region requiring governmental support. NEW: Oleg Syniehubov posts photo messages regarding energy issues in Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for warning, UA drone operations; HIGH for RF ISR and fire pressure; MEDIUM for veracity of claimed RF territorial advance, HIGH for its informational intent; HIGH for civilian casualties; HIGH for KAB launches; HIGH for GUR elimination; HIGH for Kupyansk civilian vehicle attack; HIGH for RF artillery activity; HIGH for Дневник Десантника photos; HIGH for Воин DV drone footage and captured equipment; MEDIUM for АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video's direct tactical content, HIGH for its informational intent from an RF military source; HIGH for Oleg Syniehubov report on government support program; HIGH for Syniehubov energy report).
Chernihiv Oblast: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in the Chernihiv region. Colonelcassad provides a photo claiming to show what was hit by a missile strike on August 12 in Chernihiv Oblast. High-speed targets detected in Chernihiv Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports threat of strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast. Филолог в засаде reports enemy concentration in Chernihiv Oblast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning: "Chernihiv and Kyiv regions - threat of enemy UAVs." This confirms ongoing RF reconnaissance and potential strike UAV activity in northern Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for all previous reports; HIGH for new warning of enemy UAVs in Chernihiv/Kyiv).
Kherson Oblast (Left Bank Dnieper): UA source Tsaplienko reports an RF ammunition depot was destroyed on the left bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson Oblast. Tsaplienko also reports border guards destroying an RF floating craft and four vehicles. Colonelcassad reports "Ulyanovsk paratroopers" using "Msta-B" howitzers with "Krasnopol" precision-guided munitions to destroy UAV control points and manpower in Kherson Oblast. TASS reports an RF Lancet strike destroyed an American M-777 howitzer and a Ukrainian Bogdana self-propelled artillery unit on the right bank of the Dnieper. ASTRA reports on an alleged UA drone attack on a water park in Kherson Oblast. Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny reports enemy activating shelling on several directions, using drones, artillery, and aviation, shifting units with equipment, but UA units holding positions and conducting counteroffensive actions in the southern sector. RBK-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS all report that the Ukrainian Navy has obtained radio intercepts confirming the loss of a Russian Su-30SM fighter jet that was performing tasks southeast of Snake Island. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts a photo message confirming the destruction of an RF Su-30SM, reinforcing the claim. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for ammo depot destruction, interdiction; MEDIUM for unit specificity, HIGH for precision artillery strike capability; HIGH for Lancet strike on M-777 and Bogdana, MEDIUM for BDA; HIGH for water park attack; HIGH for repelled assaults; HIGH for Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny report; HIGH for Su-30SM loss; HIGH for Operatyvnyi ZSU photo confirmation).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Colonelcassad reports the destruction of an AFU ammunition depot in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a Lancet strike UAV in the Lozove-Mezenivka area. Colonelcassad reports on a Russian tank making a path for infantry through a minefield. RF MOD reports a Grad MLRS crew thwarted an attempt to rotate AFU personnel. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Uspenivka, Novoandriyivka, Prymorske, Orikhiv, Chervona Krynytsya. Дневник Десантника requests donations for the 7th Airborne Assault Division for drones and Starlink. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports approval of shelter construction on Khortytsia Island. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny reports enemy activating shelling on several directions, using drones, artillery, and aviation, shifting units with equipment, but UA units holding positions and conducting counteroffensive actions in the southern sector. 🇺🇦 Zaporizhzhia обласна військова адміністрація (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration) issued an "ATTENTION" alert at 15:04:58Z, indicating a potential immediate threat or significant event in the region, followed by "All clear!" for the air raid alert. 🇺🇦 Zaporizhzhia обласна військова адміністрація posts multiple photo messages celebrating two residents receiving the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine award for youth. This indicates efforts to boost morale and highlight positive civilian developments despite the conflict. Два майора provides a photo message with the caption "Zaporizhzhia direction," showing a map indicating tactical elements (red starbursts) and road markers. This provides RF-sourced intelligence on their perceived tactical situation or intentions in this critical sector, suggesting continued combat activity. 🇺🇦 Zaporizhzhia обласна військова адміністрація (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration) posts multiple photo messages, captioned "Vital skills: educators and students of Zaporizhzhia region master pre-medical aid." This indicates ongoing civilian resilience and training efforts in the region, aimed at improving preparedness for battlefield trauma. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація provides a photo message stating "Regions and people who remain under fire are in focus: on the instructions of the President of Ukraine, the Government has begun implementing a large-scale program to support frontline territories." This confirms direct governmental efforts to support civilian life in conflict areas. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація issues an "All clear!" for the air raid alert. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація reports "All clear!" for the air raid alert (18:22:23Z). NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports a large collection for several units of the 7th Airborne Assault Division (DShD) in the Zaporizhzhia direction, requesting drones and Starlink. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for ammo depot destruction, Lancet activity; HIGH for tank breaching; HIGH for MLRS interdiction; HIGH for RF airstrikes; HIGH for RF logistical needs; HIGH for Khortytsia shelter approval; HIGH for Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny report; HIGH for Zaporizhzhia OVA alert; HIGH for air raid all clear; HIGH for Zaporizhzhia OVA awards photo messages as morale-boosting efforts; HIGH for Два майора map image, indicating continued RF operational focus in Zaporizhzhia; HIGH for Zaporizhzhia OVA pre-medical aid photos, indicating civilian preparedness; HIGH for Zaporizhzhia OVA support program; HIGH for latest all clear; HIGH for Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 collection report).
Kupyansk Axis: The previous daily report indicated a decisive shift of RF main effort to the Kupyansk axis, with capture of Ivanivka and intensified preparatory fire. This area is now considered the primary focus of RF offensive operations. Oleg Syniehubov reports on RF strikes on 6 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast. BUTUSOV PLUS provides a video documenting a "risky but successful sortie" by a Ukrainian tank close to enemy positions. Oleg Syniehubov reports RF attacked a civilian vehicle near Kupyansk. ASTRA reports two people were killed in a Russian drone attack on a vehicle under Kupyansk. Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Kharkiv Oblast. Военкор Котенок posts photos labeled "Kupyansk direction." Военкор Котенок reports contradictory information regarding the situation near Petropavlivka on the Kupyansk direction, stating that the enemy (UA) is attempting counterattacks. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy tactical aviation activity in the northeastern direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Kupyansk axis shift and Ivanivka capture; HIGH for RF strikes; HIGH for UA tank sortie; HIGH for civilian vehicle attack and casualties; HIGH for KAB launches; HIGH for Petropavlivka counterattack report; HIGH for RF tactical aviation activity).
Overall Frontline: RF continues to employ FPV drone swarms and Lancet loitering munitions, with a reported 20% increase in Lancet strikes in the last 24 hours. RF sources claim successful destruction of UA drone repeater stations and command posts. UA source BUTUSOV PLUS provides video evidence of an FPV drone strike against RF soldiers. STERNENKO provides video showing UA special forces downing 6 drones in the Zaporizhzhia direction. RF MOD released a video showing strikes against Ukrainian assets, including 'LELEKA-100' and 'SHARK-M' drones, and 'BERGEPANZER 2' and 'KOZAK' vehicles. Tsaplienko reports an FPV drone being caught in "Yahoza" (razor wire) and "Putanka" (tangled wire) nets. Colonelcassad reports training exercises on shooting down drones with shotguns/rifles in Donbas, featuring a Russian practical shooting champion. General Staff of AFU reports approximately 990 RF personnel losses in the last 24 hours. Air Force of Ukraine reports 24 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed. RF attacked with 2 S-300/400 missiles and 45 drones, with 24 drones shot down. TASS confirms Belgorod Governor Gladkov confirming three people were injured in a UAV strike by AFU on Belgorod. A new prisoner exchange of 84 servicemen by each side was conducted. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports the dismissal of the 47th OMBr battalion commander. General Staff of AFU reports 1432 tanks and 3087 armored fighting vehicles destroyed, and 276,300 RF personnel losses since the beginning of the year. BUTUSOV PLUS video shows a skeleton of an RF soldier on a destroyed armored vehicle. Военкор Котенок posts videos of Russian soldiers returning from "Bandera captivity." STERNENKO reports "Today we have a weak 'rusorez' (Russian cutter)," implying a less effective day for Ukrainian forces in inflicting losses on RF. MoD Russia provides a video showing Russian military personnel, wrapped in Russian flags, expressing gratitude for their return. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports the return of 84 Ukrainians from captivity, with accompanying video showing emotional reunions and individuals discarding prison attire. Два майора provides a video titled "Retribution for Treachery!" showing drone footage of explosions in a wooded area and incapacitated individuals in military uniforms. STERNENKO provides video of "Hyena Group" downing 4 enemy drones overnight, reinforcing effective UA counter-UAS operations and capabilities. STERNENKO's video caption explicitly states "Heavenly Rusoriz continues," implying ongoing attrition of RF forces. Operatyvnyi ZSU provides video from the "Fenix" unit of the State Border Guard Service, demonstrating effective UA engagement with RF forces in Donetsk Oblast, destroying a tank, Grad MLRS, vehicles, and personnel. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a video message with the caption "#HumanFate #DNR," likely a human-interest story from the occupied Donbas region, used by RF to frame its involvement in the conflict and elicit sympathy or support. Kotsnews provides multiple photo messages labeled "Evening Bell," implying visual updates, though content is not specified. The presence of these messages from an RF military correspondent suggests continued reporting on frontline activities or general military matters. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video titled "Receive a grenade, drone! A Russian infantryman carried out his own demilitarization, using all available arsenal to destroy a Ukrainian FPV. It turned out not bad." This video, from a UA source, demonstrates an RF soldier effectively engaging an FPV drone with a grenade, highlighting individual soldier adaptation to counter-UAS threats. MoD Russia posts multiple photo messages showing BARS-31 detachment volunteers being awarded in the special military operation zone, indicating efforts to boost morale and recognize service. MoD Russia posts a video captioned "Attack UAV pilots keep on destroying the enemy", demonstrating continued RF drone operations and target destruction. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo message claiming an RF Su-30SM was destroyed near Snake Island, providing further details and reinforcement for the prior report of the loss. Fighterbomber posts a photo message featuring a Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jet, indicating Russian air asset presence and activity, or a propaganda piece highlighting air power. NEW: TASS reports 13 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted and destroyed over RF regions in the last three hours. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts a video showing "collective suicide of Russian motorcycle assault troops" being turned into "meat lego," indicating a successful UA engagement and significant RF casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for all previous reports; HIGH for STERNENKO's current assessment; HIGH for MoD Russia video on prisoner return; HIGH for DeepState POW return; HIGH for Два майора video; HIGH for STERNENKO's Hyena Group video and counter-UAS claim; HIGH for Operatyvnyi ZSU Fenix unit video and BDA; MEDIUM for АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video's direct tactical content, HIGH for its informational intent from an RF military source; HIGH for Kotsnews updates; HIGH for БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing RF soldier engaging FPV drone; HIGH for MoD Russia awards photo messages; HIGH for MoD Russia drone video; HIGH for Operatyvnyi ZSU Su-30SM confirmation; HIGH for Fighterbomber Su-35 image as RF air asset presence or propaganda; HIGH for TASS UAV interception claim; HIGH for Operatyvnyi ZSU motorcycle assault video and BDA).
Deep Rear (Sumi Oblast/Tatarstan/Belgorod/Kyiv Oblast/Chernihiv Oblast/Dnipropetrovsk Oblast/Zaporizhzhia Oblast/Volgograd/Rostov-on-Don/Bryansk/Kursk): UA source Alex Parker Returns reports detention of four individuals in Tatarstan attempting to impersonate RF servicemen with "imitations" of Orlan-10 drones. RF sources report ongoing drone attacks on Belgorod, with dozens of targets engaged. Operatsiya Z reports "Massive enemy attacks on Belgorod Oblast - civilians killed and wounded." ASTRA provides video of Belgorod Governor Gladkov confirming the attack on the government building, with visible damage. TASS reports Ukrainian servicemen are disappearing by platoons and companies near Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports activity of reconnaissance UAVs and KAB launches in Sumy Oblast, and high-speed targets in Chernihiv Oblast. Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) announces air raid alert for Kyiv due to ballistic missile threat from the north. ASTRA and RBK-Ukraine report a Ukrainian drone attack on the Volgograd Oil Refinery (NPP "Lukoil"), resulting in spilled and burning oil products. Operatyvnyi ZSU provides satellite imagery appearing to confirm significant damage. RF MOD reports 44 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over regions of the Russian Federation overnight. TASS reports RF FSB claims of destroying Ukrainian long-range missile production, including "Sapsan" missiles. ASTRA reports three people injured in a drone attack on Belgorod. ASTRA reports photo damage to a 16-story residential building in Volgograd after drone attacks. ASTRA reports a child and a man were injured in a Russian missile strike in Sumy Oblast. Kotsnews provides multiple videos from Belgorod showing aftermath of drone attacks. ASTRA reports one person killed and one injured in Russian shelling of Kharkiv Oblast. TASS confirms RF air defense shot down 8 Ukrainian UAVs over Belgorod Oblast and 2 over Krasnodar Krai. TASS reports RF Investigative Committee opened terrorism cases for attacks on civilian targets in Rostov-on-Don and Belgorod. TASS reports a powerful explosion in Rostov-on-Don after a missile danger alert, with multiple sources corroborating a drone impact on a multi-story building and 13 injured. Dn. Desantnika reports a UA drone attack on the Druzhba oil pipeline in Bryansk Oblast. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ explicitly states that SBS ZSU, GUR MOU, and other elements attacked the Volgograd Oil Refinery. TASS reports Ukraine unable to fully restore missile production, confirming the impact of RF deep strikes. TASS reports RF struck HIMARS positions with an Iskander-M in Zhykhove, Sumy Oblast. Kyiv City Military Administration reports lifting of air raid alert. Air Force of Ukraine reports lifting of ballistic missile threat for all oblasts. Colonelcassad video shows a drone strike against an RF T-80BVM tank near Kiyanitsa, Sumy Oblast. TASS video features RF Special Representative Dmitriev discussing expectations for Putin-Trump meeting in Alaska. TASS reports Putin will visit a Russian region on the way to Alaska. ASTRA reports police lieutenant colonel and senior criminal investigator injured in strike on district court building in Belgorod. Alex Parker Returns reports Russia transferred 810 tons of flour and 60.7 tons of sunflower oil to Tajikistan as part of a school meal program. Rosaviatsiya has introduced temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd Airport. TASS also confirms temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd airport. ASTRA reports that two pipelines and a crude oil primary processing unit caught fire during the attack on the Volgograd Lukoil Refinery, with accompanying image showing extensive fire damage. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the same information regarding the Volgograd refinery attack. ASTRA reports a Ukrainian UAV struck "Belgorod Arena". Поддубный reports that Belgorod continues to endure AFU attacks, with air raid alerts every 20 minutes, and mobile fire groups and AD working in the suburbs. He states that UA UAV calculations are purposefully hitting civilian objects, calling it "terrorist tactics." This indicates sustained and highly kinetic UA drone activity in Belgorod and an RF narrative of UA targeting civilians. Север.Реалии provides videos of Belgorod being attacked by drones in the evening of August 14th, corroborating Poddubny's report on continued drone strikes. Военкор Котенок posts a photo message showing over 12,000 people observing online the Russian Il-96-300 flight to Alaska, indicating significant public interest in the diplomatic event. КМВА (Kyiv City Military Administration) reports "Kyiv - air raid alert!" and "Threat of ballistic weapons employment." This indicates an immediate and serious deep strike threat on the capital. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues an urgent warning: "Threat of ballistic weapons employment from the northeast in the regions where an air raid alert has been declared!" This confirms the direction and nature of the threat to Kyiv and other northern/central regions. TASS reports that "Command of the 156th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is sending the last reserve forces into battles near Yunakivka. Russian security forces told TASS about this." This RF claim implies critical UA manpower issues in Sumy Oblast border areas, aligning with previous reports of UA disappearing from Yunakivka. STERNENKO reports "Pavlohrad/suburbs under ballistic strike." This confirms a new deep strike on a major city in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. КМВА (Kyiv City Military Administration) reports "Kyiv - all clear!" This indicates the lifting of the previous ballistic missile threat to the capital, showcasing the responsiveness of UA air defense alert systems. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues an "All clear!" for the threat in the oblasts, indicating cessation of the deep strike threat. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports "м. Київ - повітряна тривога!" and then "Загроза застосування балістичного озброєння." This confirms continued immediate deep strike threats to the capital. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of "Загроза застосування ударних БпЛА для Дніпропетровської області (Синельниківський р-н)." This indicates continued RF drone threats in the deep rear. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of "Загроза застосування ударних БпЛА для Сумської та Полтавської областей." This confirms continued RF drone threats to northern and central deep rear areas. ТАСС reports three civilians were injured in drone attacks by AFU in Kursk border areas. STERNENKO reports a "drone safety" alert for Saratov, Bryansk, Stavropol, Dagestan, and North Caucasus, indicating widespread UA drone activity. ASTRA reports a federal judge was killed in Volgograd Oblast due to a domestic incident, with a detailed, gruesome description. Alex Parker Returns also posts on the same incident, attempting to link it to a returning serviceman. TASS reports that Telegram Messenger Inc. was fined for not deleting banned information, indicating RF's continued efforts at information control. NEW: STERNENKO reports that a "veteran of the Special Military Operation" killed a federal judge in Volgograd Oblast. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a video message appealing to "SVO participants" (veterans). (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for Tatarstan detention and purpose; HIGH for Belgorod drone activity, casualties, and government building attack; MEDIUM for TASS report veracity on Sumy disappearances; HIGH for UA Air Force alerts, KAB launches, and high-speed targets; HIGH for Kyiv ballistic alerts; HIGH for Volgograd NPP attack and BDA; HIGH for RF MOD UAV shootdown claims; HIGH for TASS FSB missile claims and corroboration on Sapsan destruction; HIGH for Sumy civilian casualties; HIGH for Rostov-on-Don explosion and casualties; HIGH for Bryansk pipeline attack; HIGH for UA official claim of Volgograd strike; HIGH for TASS report on missile production impact; HIGH for HIMARS strike; HIGH for Kyiv air raid all-clear; HIGH for Sumy Oblast tank strike; HIGH for TASS Dmitriev video; HIGH for TASS Putin travel plan; HIGH for ASTRA Belgorod district court strike; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns report on aid to Tajikistan; HIGH for Volgograd airport restrictions; HIGH for Volgograd refinery damage specifics; HIGH for Belgorod Arena strike; HIGH for Poddubny's report on Belgorod attacks and RF AD activity; HIGH for Север.Реалии videos of Belgorod attacks; HIGH for Военкор Котенок's report on Il-96-300 flight tracking; HIGH for KMVA Kyiv air raid alert and ballistic threat; HIGH for Air Force of Ukraine ballistic threat confirmation; HIGH for TASS report on UA 156th Brigade's reserves in Yunakivka; HIGH for STERNENKO report on Pavlohrad ballistic strike; HIGH for KMVA Kyiv all clear; HIGH for Air Force of Ukraine threat all clear; HIGH for KMVA Kyiv air raid and ballistic threat; HIGH for Air Force of Ukraine Dnipropetrovsk UAV threat; HIGH for Air Force of Ukraine Sumy/Poltava UAV threat; HIGH for TASS Kursk casualties; HIGH for STERNENKO drone safety alert for RF regions; HIGH for ASTRA/Alex Parker Returns reports on Volgograd judge incident; HIGH for TASS Telegram fine; HIGH for STERNENKO report on judge killing and veteran involvement; HIGH for АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА appeal to SVO participants).
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
Ukrainian Forces: Maintain a defensive posture, particularly in Donetsk Oblast. Training images of tanks suggest ongoing readiness efforts. Despite challenges (e.g., claimed infantry shortages), UA continues to inflict losses on RF forces (990 RF personnel losses reported by General Staff, and 1432 tanks / 3087 AFVs, 276,300 personnel losses since year start). UA leadership, including President Zelenskyy, maintains a firm diplomatic stance on territorial integrity and conditions for peace talks. UA sources publicly acknowledge tactical challenges (e.g., infantry shortages in Pokrovsk). UA forces continue drone operations into RF territory. UA helicopter pilots are reportedly engaging RF "Shaheds" at close range. UA Cabinet of Ministers proposes changes to mobilization deferment rules for students and educators, and changes to booking rules for agricultural enterprises. General Prosecutor's Office reports 22 suspicions handed to Kyiv City State Administration officials. RBK-Ukraine reports that a Member of Parliament from the banned OPZZh party, Khrystenko, has been declared wanted. Zaporizhzhia OVA reported the delivery of new specialized equipment to communities. UA border guards are conducting successful interdiction operations. UA airborne forces are preparing Ukrainian soil for autumn sowing. RBK-Ukraine reports on proposal to fine citizens for violating curfew. UA's Tsaplienko reports the US is actively studying the experience of the Ukrainian army. Zelenskyy reiterates support for Trump's peace efforts on the condition that the path to peace is not determined without Ukraine. RBK-Ukraine reports on proposals from Prime Minister Shmyhal to increase leave and payments for military personnel released from captivity. Tsaplienko highlights the use of "Yahoza" (razor wire) and "Putanka" (tangled wire) nets as effective passive defense against FPV drones. UA General Staff reports approximately 990 RF personnel losses in the last 24 hours. Air Force of Ukraine reports 24 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed. RF attacked with 2 S-300/400 missiles and 45 drones, with 24 drones shot down. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports President Zelenskyy will meet UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London. ЦАПЛІЄНКО (06:20Z) provides a graphic stating "Britain refused the idea of introducing a 30,000-strong contingent into Ukraine — The Times." Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (09:06Z) confirms UA deep strike on Volgograd Oil Refinery. 🇺🇦 Zaporizhzhia обласна військова адміністрація (10:10Z) reports 1.5 billion USD in PURL (Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List) funding has been secured, for procurement of US-made weapons. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (11:04Z) posts video of UA airborne fighting a Russian assault near Kursk. The SBU released exclusive video of the 14 August prisoner exchange. Air Force of Ukraine reports all clear for ballistic missile threat. 🇺🇦 Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports approval of shelter construction on Khortytsia Island. Шеф Hayabusa requests donations for Mavic 4Pro for 77th DSHV Brigade. Воин DV reports Zelenskyy arrived in London. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Trump expects a dispute over borders and territories with Putin, and will apply sanctions if the meeting ends unsuccessfully. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny reports Ukrainian units holding positions and conducting counteroffensive actions in the southern sector. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (MOBILIZATION | News | Conscripts) provides a video message titled "Bullying of refuseniks." Оперативний ЗСУ reports the appointment of Oleksandr Rashevsky as the new commander of the National Police of Ukraine's "Lyut" (Fury) Brigade. 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України posts a photo message emphasizing "Your support makes the fighters unbreakable." 🇺🇦 Zaporizhzhia обласна військова адміністрація posts multiple photo messages celebrating two residents receiving the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine award for youth. This reinforces efforts to boost morale and highlight positive civilian developments in Ukraine. РБК-Україна posts a photo message reporting "Zelenskyy spoke with President of Argentina Javier Milei about 'shock therapy' for Ukraine," indicating ongoing high-level diplomatic engagement to secure economic support and potentially discuss economic reforms. STERNENKO posts a photo message with the caption "Army reform has taken place!", suggesting internal military reforms are being highlighted to the public, implying improved efficiency or readiness. 🇺🇦 Zaporizhzhia обласна військова адміністрація posts multiple photo messages highlighting "Vital skills: educators and students of Zaporizhzhia region master pre-medical aid." This indicates ongoing efforts to enhance civilian preparedness and resilience in areas near the front, indirectly supporting military efforts by bolstering societal stability. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a new wave of exposures in Bukovyna, with 15 individuals notified of suspicion for budget embezzlement and environmental crimes. This indicates ongoing efforts by UA's C2 to maintain internal security and combat corruption. РБК-Україна reports on new transport operation during alarms in Khmelnytskyi. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts multiple photo messages with a caption "«Крию!», «Граната!», «Давай, на характері!» – під звуки автоматних черг та вибухів гранат, інструктори та інструкторки з Австралії та Фінляндії контролюють відпрацювання штурмових дій у міській забудові українськими військовослужбовцями в межах багатонаціональної операції ІНТЕРЛФЕКС на території Великої Британії." This confirms ongoing international training and readiness efforts for UA forces. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація provides a photo message stating "Regions and people who remain under fire are in focus: on the instructions of the President of Ukraine, the Government has begun implementing a large-scale program to support frontline territories." This indicates government-led initiatives to sustain civilian life in conflict areas. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues an "All clear!" for threats in the oblasts, indicating responsiveness of UA AD systems. Оперативний ЗСУ issues an "All clear!" for threats. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports "м. Київ - повітряна тривога!" and "Загроза застосування балістичного озброєння." This indicates immediate and serious deep strike threat on the capital, and UA's responsive alert system. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues an urgent warning: "☄️ Загроза застосування балістичного озброєння з північного-сходу та півночі в областях де оголошено повітряну тривогу!" This confirms the direction and nature of the threat to Kyiv and other northern/central regions. РБК-Україна provides a photo message reporting "У столиці вже третя за вечір тривога через загрозу балістики," indicating persistent deep strike threats. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна both share videos of Donald Trump speaking about a potential meeting with Putin, and the possibility of peace. Шеф Hayabusa posts photo messages with a Ukrainian flag and the caption "Йдемо впевнено. Головне - не ставати в ступор😎," indicating a positive outlook and determination. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video regarding a fundraiser for quad bikes for the 42nd Separate Motorized Infantry Battalion. NEW: РБК-Україна reports the government has appointed a temporary head of ARMA (Asset Recovery and Management Agency). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for all previous reports; LOW for veracity of "Bullying of refuseniks" video as a direct indicator of UA military disposition, MEDIUM for its informational intent by RF; HIGH for new commander appointment; HIGH for UA public support messaging; HIGH for Zaporizhzhia OVA awards photo messages as morale-boosting efforts; HIGH for RBK-Україна report on Zelenskyy/Milei call; HIGH for STERNENKO's report on army reform; HIGH for Zaporizhzhia OVA pre-medical aid photos, indicating civilian preparedness; HIGH for Офіс Генерального прокурора report on Bukovyna; HIGH for РБК-Україна Khmelnytskyi transport; HIGH for Генеральний штаб ЗСУ training photos, confirming international support; HIGH for Zaporizhzhia OVA support program; HIGH for Air Force of Ukraine all clear; HIGH for Operatyvnyi ZSU all clear; HIGH for KMVA Kyiv air raid and ballistic threat; HIGH for Air Force of Ukraine ballistic threat confirmation; HIGH for RBK-Україна persistent threat report; HIGH for Operatyvnyi ZSU and RBK-Україна Trump videos as diplomatic context; HIGH for Шеф Hayabusa photo messages as morale; HIGH for БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС quad bike fundraiser; HIGH for ARMA appointment).
Russian Forces: Concentrating elite VDV units and deploying advanced EW systems (R-330ZH Zhitel) near Bakhmut/Chasiv Yar. Repositioning S-300 battalions for potential surface-to-surface roles. Intensifying artillery, including TOS-1A thermobaric systems. RF Defense Minister Belousov is meeting with military correspondents to discuss drone production, supplies, and social support. RF forces are actively engaging UA drones. RF source Zvezdets Mangust claims RF command has moved "a number of units and formations from the North" to the Southern and Southern part of Eastern operational zones. RF source Voenkor Kotenok video features RF soldiers requesting Mavic 3 and Mavic 3 Pro drones. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ provides a video showing field dental clinics. Два майора is still requesting charitable support for forces. TASS reports Northern Fleet has begun exercises involving 2,000 military personnel, up to 14 ships and submarines. Operatsiya Z reports detention of an "Orlan" reconnaissance UAV crew for the MoD. ASTRA reports RF police detained Russian cadets launching drones in Tatarstan. STERNENKO reports a "drone safety" alert for multiple RF oblasts. RF's Parliament speaker Volodin has arrived in Pyongyang, North Korea. НгП раZVедка provides an update indicating that ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine will continue regardless of US diplomatic initiatives. Colonelcassad shares a video depicting an alleged abduction of a man and a woman in Lutsk, claiming such incidents are common and aimed at forced conscription. MoD Russia shares a "Top News Today" image. Rybar's post with a caption "Blitzkrieg in the sector - to be?", implying significant RF offensive preparations. TASS reports a bill will be introduced for AI use in campaign materials. TASS reports Ukrainian soldier Alexey Levchenko stated he surrendered to Russian servicemen on the advice of his parents. TASS features Serbian sniper Dejan Berić, a "volunteer" in the Russian army. TASS indicates that captured Ukrainian soldier Alexey Levchenko claims his brigade consists of "disabled and mentally ill people." TASS indicates that a commander of an Airborne Reconnaissance Battalion (callsign Manul) stating that after "liberating Chasov Yar," fighting has moved into the adjacent forest, where Russian forces are destroying "pedestrian groups" and "UAV control points." The US delegation for the Alaska talks has been identified. Serhii Lysak of Dnipropetrovsk ODA (OVA) held a defense council meeting, processing requests from military, discussing mobilization progress, and defensive line construction. Kadyrov_95 posts video of Akhmat battalion operating in Vovchansk (Kharkiv direction), targeting UA personnel in residential areas. WarGonzo claims RF forces are taking control of the Dobropillya-Kramatorsk highway. RBK-Ukraine reports no documents planned after Putin-Trump summit. TASS confirms no documents planned after summit and that discussion of Ukrainian conflict will happen at subsequent stages. Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms no documents after summit. TASS reports Putin "wants a peace agreement" (Trump quote). TASS video shows a 100-year-old veteran expressing patriotic feelings. TASS Special Representative Dmitriev discusses expectations for meeting. Два майора video contrasts Zelenskyy and Putin. TASS reports Trump uncertainty about joint press conference. TASS reports Trump wants joint press conference. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Trump-Putin meeting will be "exchange of views on borders and territories." Alex Parker Returns reports Trump views Putin as tough opponent, doesn't expect immediate ceasefire. RBK-Ukraine reports Trump says summit will be "dispute over borders and lands." TASS reports Putin to visit Russian region en route to Alaska. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Trump will call Zelenskyy after talking with Putin. Военкор Котенок shares images of personal documents (passport, medical reports), seemingly a "cry for help" from a subscriber. KMVA shows civilian road construction near Kyiv military hospital. Два майора requests support for "MAH". Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Trump "would impose sanctions" if things unresolved. Alex Parker Returns disinformation regarding Sec. Rubio and Zelenskyy on territory exchange. RBK-Ukraine reports Trump expects ceasefire "will happen" eventually. TASS reports Trump assesses 75% success chance for meeting. MoD Russia video shows 103rd Motor Rifle Regiment liberating Shcherbynivka in Donetsk. Дневник Десантника posts about additional leave for combat veterans. STERNENKO relays Trump's ambiguous statements about the summit. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ photo caption "Attempted attack on Tetkino" implies UA border activity. BUTUSOV PLUS video shows skeleton of RF soldier on destroyed armored vehicle. Два майора reports Belgorod governor indicating probable provocations on the border and enemy concentration on Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod directions with intent to occupy border villages for negotiation. TASS reports special flight Il-96 for RF-US summit arrived in Anchorage. TASS reports Russian Ministry of Justice added "Reporters Without Borders" to the list of undesirable organizations. Дневник Десантника reports RF forces struck Dobropolye with 6 KABs. TASS shares a photo message featuring US Treasury Secretary Yellen with a caption urging Europeans demanding sanctions against RF to "shut up." Два майора posts a video of "Own production of premium quality delicacies." Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message claiming Russia transferred humanitarian aid (flour, sunflower oil) to Tajikistan. TASS reports that the Ministry of Education has launched a special chatbot for Russian educators to send questions and suggestions to Sergey Kravtsov. TASS reports that the Moscow City Court (Mosgorsud) has informed TASS about a fake mailing list regarding citizens being included in the list of candidates for the jury panel. ТАСС reports that Belousov held a meeting with the heads of defense departments of the Sahel states. Два майора posts multiple photos under the caption "Soldier's everyday life." TASS reports that the Russian Ministry of Transport plans to start regulating urban drone delivery in the near future. Новости Москвы reports Moscow not expecting summer warmth in second half of August, indicating potential broader cold front development to the north, which might impact operations in northern UA/RF border regions later. Poddubny reports that Belgorod continues to endure AFU attacks, with air raid alerts every 20 minutes, and mobile fire groups and AD working in the suburbs. He states that UA UAV calculations are purposefully hitting civilian objects, calling it "terrorist tactics." This indicates sustained and highly kinetic UA drone activity in Belgorod and an RF narrative of UA targeting civilians. Север.Реалии provides videos of Belgorod being attacked by drones in the evening of August 14th, corroborating Poddubny's report on continued drone strikes. Военкор Котенок posts a photo message showing over 12,000 people observing online the Russian Il-96-300 flight to Alaska, indicating significant public interest in the diplomatic event. Colonelcassad posts a video message with the caption "Thanks to our friends and subscribers, we transferred a Mavic 3 Pro drone to the scouts of the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 'Vostok' group of the Russian Armed Forces from Buryatia. The enemy will be defeated! Victory will be ours!" This explicitly confirms drone resupply efforts from civilian sources to a specific RF military unit and highlights their continued reliance on commercial drones for reconnaissance. MoD Russia posts multiple photo messages celebrating the floating out of the latest frigate of the Project 22350 Admiral Amelko in Saint Petersburg, signifying ongoing naval modernization and shipbuilding efforts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports the composition of the US delegation for the upcoming Alaska negotiations with the Russian Federation, indicating RF's focus on diplomatic events and intelligence gathering related to them. Военкор Котенок posts a photo message titled "Main News Today (14.08.2025)," which is a summary of RF's key narratives and perceived successes for the day. TASS reports that "Volodin in Pyongyang held a meeting with Kim Jong Un, reports the State Duma press service," confirming high-level diplomatic engagement with North Korea. ASTRA and TASS both provide video messages and text reports on Nikolai Burlyaev's statements about "revisiting the attitude" towards films like "Brother" and "Brigade" due to concerns about "propaganda of Ukrainian unity" or "Russian criminal unity." This indicates an RF internal information control effort targeting cultural products and shaping public narratives. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a video showing drone footage of a military convoy, with one vehicle burning, captioned "From liberated Iskra to Alexandrogad, the assaults of the 36th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade of GrV 'Vostok' are advancing." This directly confirms active ground operations by a specific RF unit, including elements of a vehicle engagement, and re-affirms the RF operational direction. WarGonzo provides a video of an excavator operating in a marshy or waterlogged area. This civilian equipment could be repurposed for military engineering tasks such as trenching or fortifications. Старше Эдды posts multiple photo messages with the caption "Будни войны. Инженерные подразделения группировки войск «Центр» разминируют освобождённую территорию Донбасса." This confirms active RF engineering efforts, including mine clearance, in occupied territories. Басурин о главном posts a video message showing the commissioning and christening of the Admiral Amelko frigate. This highlights RF's naval modernization efforts. ASTRA reports UA attacked a petrochemical pumping station in Bryansk Oblast with HIMARS on August 12, citing sources. This indicates a successful deep strike on RF territory. Старше Эдды posts photos showing RPG launchers in a wooden crate, suggesting RF re-supply or capture of such weapons. Colonelcassad posts a video titled "Уничтожение станции РЭБ противника на Константиновском направлении" (Destruction of enemy EW station in Konstantinovka direction). This suggests RF is actively targeting UA EW capabilities. ТАСС reports Trump states his upcoming meeting with Putin in Alaska will be important for both Russia and the US. РБК-Україна posts a photo message reporting Trump's statement on a future meeting with Zelenskyy, Putin, himself, and potentially European leaders. Операция Z reports Trump's confidence that Putin and Zelenskyy will "come to peace." MoD Russia posts multiple photo messages of "Yug Group's BARS-31 detachment volunteers are awarded in special military operation zone," indicating morale-boosting efforts. ТАСС, РБК-Україна, and Оперативний ЗСУ all share videos of Donald Trump speaking about the potential for an upcoming meeting with Putin, and the prospects for peace. Старше Эдды expresses agreement with "Bruce" on the ease of shooting down a "corn plane" hundreds of kilometers from the front, implying a RF perception of UA drone vulnerability. Глеб Никитин posts photo messages of a "GAZ-14 'Chaika'" car, indicating attention to civilian vehicles or historical items, without direct military relevance. Военкор Котенок posts a map with blue and red indicators for the "Southern Donetsk direction," suggesting tactical or logistical movements. Два майора posts a statement from the acting governor of Kursk Oblast. ASTRA and Оперативний ЗСУ post gruesome details of a federal judge's murder in Volgograd Oblast, linking it to a returning serviceman. Fighterbomber posts a photo of a Sukhoi Su-35. РБК-Україна posts a video of Trump discussing reduction of NATO troops. TASS reports three civilians injured in drone attacks by AFU in Kursk border areas. TASS reports on the increase in crimes via WhatsApp/Telegram. TASS reports on Telegram Messenger Inc. being fined. NEW: MoD Russia releases video of a platoon leader 'Zatvor' describing captured foreign weaponry (M4 assault rifle, Belgian 7.62mm machine guns) during the "Zeleny Gai liberation." Kadyrov_95 posts videos of urban development and construction in Grozny, which is not directly military but reflects internal priorities and resource allocation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for VDV concentration, EW deployment, S-300 repositioning, artillery intensification; HIGH for Belousov meeting; HIGH for counter-drone actions; MEDIUM for unit redeployments; HIGH for Mavic requests, field dental clinics, charity requests; HIGH for Northern Fleet exercises; MEDIUM for Orlan crew detention, Tatarstan cadets, HIGH for drone safety alerts; HIGH for NK delegation; HIGH for continued ballistic strikes intent; HIGH for Lutsk abduction claim IO; HIGH for MoD Top News IO; HIGH for Blitzkrieg IO; HIGH for AI in campaign materials; HIGH for Levchenko surrender IO; HIGH for Berić IO; HIGH for Manul Chasiv Yar claim; HIGH for Alaska delegation ID; HIGH for Dnipropetrovsk defense council; HIGH for Kadyrov_95 Vovchansk video; HIGH for WarGonzo Dobropillya highway claim; HIGH for no summit documents; HIGH for TASS Peskov quote; HIGH for Trump peace intent IO; HIGH for TASS veteran video IO; HIGH for TASS Dmitriev video IO; HIGH for Два майора IO video; HIGH for Trump presser intent; HIGH for Trump "borders and territories" quote; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns Trump quote; HIGH for Putin travel; HIGH for Trump-Zelenskyy call setup; LOW for military relevance of Kotenok documents; HIGH for civilian construction updates; HIGH for Два майора requests; HIGH for Trump sanctions intent; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns IO; HIGH for Trump ceasefire quote; HIGH for Trump success chance; HIGH for MoD Russia Shcherbynivka video; HIGH for Дневник Десантника leave info; HIGH for STERNENKO Trump summary; HIGH for ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ Tetkino report; HIGH for BUTUSOV PLUS video; HIGH for Два майора border provocation report; HIGH for TASS Anchorage flight; HIGH for TASS Reporters Without Borders report; HIGH for Дневник Десантника Dobropolye strike; HIGH for TASS Yellen photo message as an IO effort; LOW for military relevance of Два майора's "delicacies" video; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns Tajikistan aid report; LOW for direct military relevance of chatbot, HIGH for its civil administration context; HIGH for TASS fake mailing list; HIGH for Belousov/Sahel meeting; MEDIUM for military relevance of Два майора's "Soldier's everyday life" photos, HIGH for IO intent; HIGH for TASS urban drone delivery; LOW for military relevance of Moscow weather; HIGH for TASS gasoline export ban; HIGH for WarGonzo Moldavian piece as historical IO; LOW for military relevance of Moscow News smartphone photos, HIGH for civilian normalcy IO; HIGH for Poddubny's report on Belgorod attacks and RF AD activity; HIGH for Север.Реалии videos of Belgorod attacks; HIGH for Военкор Котенок's report on Il-96-300 flight tracking; HIGH for Colonelcassad Mavic 3 Pro video (confirms civilian resupply and RF unit); HIGH for MoD Russia frigate photos (naval modernization); HIGH for Дневник Десантника US delegation report (diplomatic focus); HIGH for Военкор Котенок daily news summary (RF narrative control); HIGH for TASS Volodin/Kim Jong Un meeting (NK alliance); HIGH for ASTRA/TASS Burlyaev film discussion (internal information control); HIGH for Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video on Alexandrogad advance; HIGH for WarGonzo excavator video as potential military engineering; HIGH for Старше Эдды photos on mine clearance; HIGH for Басурин о главном frigate video (naval modernization); HIGH for ASTRA report on Bryansk HIMARS strike; HIGH for Старше Эдды RPG photos; HIGH for Colonelcassad video of EW station destruction; HIGH for TASS Trump Alaska statement; HIGH for RBK-Україна Trump future meeting statement; HIGH for Операция Z Trump peace confidence; HIGH for MoD Russia awards photos; HIGH for TASS/РБК-Україна/Оперативний ЗСУ Trump videos for diplomatic context; HIGH for Старше Эдды's "Bruce" comment as RF perspective on drone vulnerability; LOW for Глеб Никитин's posts as military relevant, HIGH for general civilian presence; HIGH for Военкор Котенок map on Southern Donetsk; HIGH for Два майора Kursk governor report; HIGH for ASTRA/Оперативний ЗСУ/Alex Parker Returns on Volgograd judge incident, as IO leverage; HIGH for Fighterbomber Su-35 photo as RF air asset presence/propaganda; HIGH for РБК-Україна Trump NATO video as diplomatic context; HIGH for TASS Kursk casualties; HIGH for TASS Telegram fines; HIGH for MoD Russia captured foreign weaponry; LOW for Kadyrov_95 Grozny urban development as military relevant, HIGH for IO intent on stability/progress).
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Intentions:
Intentions:
Russian Forces:
Ukrainian Forces:
Russian Forces:
Ukrainian Forces:
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
Successes:
Setbacks:
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
Russian Propaganda (HIGH):
Ukrainian Counter-Propaganda (HIGH):
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
Ukrainian Public Sentiment:
Russian Public Sentiment:
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
Support for Ukraine (HIGH):
Support for Russia (HIGH):
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
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