Archived operational intelligence briefing
INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)
TIME: 141541Z AUG 25
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske Axis): RF forces, specifically elements of the 98th Guards Airborne Division (VDV), continue to concentrate in forward assembly areas between Bakhmut and Ivanivske. RF has secured a foothold in eastern Ivanivske, likely to fix UA forces and secure a southern flank for the main Chasiv Yar assault. Probing attacks towards eastern Chasiv Yar micro-district are ongoing. Air Force of Ukraine reports multiple Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches by enemy tactical aviation targeting Donetsk Oblast. TASS indicates that after "liberating Chasov Yar," fighting has moved into the adjacent forest, where Russian forces are destroying "pedestrian groups" and "UAV control points." This implies a claimed RF advance beyond Chasiv Yar. Colonelcassad provides video of FPV drone strikes by RF "CENTER" grouping destroying a Ukrainian temporary deployment point (PVD), suggesting continued tactical effectiveness. TASS confirms liberation of Shcherbynivka (Donetsk) by a Southern Group assault team, who report encountering drones and kamikazes. MoD Russia confirms this liberation and explicitly states units of the 103rd Motorised Rifle Regiment knocked the enemy out of Shcherbynivka. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian forces broke through Ukrainian defense lines in the Lyman district, Donetsk region, with video showing a Ukrainian tank engaging Russian forces. Operatyvnyi ZSU provides video of a UA 63rd OMBr tank engaging RF FPV drones and personnel at close range in Torske on the Lyman direction, indicating continued heavy fighting and UA resistance. TASS reports Military expert Marochko stating that after the liberation of Shcherbynivka, UA forces will not be able to attack near Dzerzhinsk in DNR. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the "Phoenix" unit of the State Border Guard Service destroyed an enemy tank and a BM-21 Grad MLRS in Donetsk Oblast (Video message at 15:13:38Z). Colonelcassad reports (15:22:01Z) that UAV operators of the 103rd Motor Rifle Regiment (msrp) discovered a long-term enemy strongpoint in Katerynivka, destroyed by a Krasnopol-M2 guided munition fired by a 152-mm 2A65 Msta-B howitzer crew of the 238th Guards Artillery Brigade, with an Orlan-30 UAV providing target illumination. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for force concentration, tactical maneuvers, Ivanivske foothold, KAB launches, and reported current combat zone; MEDIUM for Chasiv Yar "liberation" claim; HIGH for FPV strikes, Shcherbynivka liberation; HIGH for Lyman breakthrough; HIGH for Torske engagement; HIGH for MoD Russia confirmation of Shcherbynivka liberation by 103rd MRR; HIGH for Marochko's statement on Dzerzhinsk; HIGH for UA border guard destruction of tank/Grad; HIGH for Krasnopol-M2 strike in Katerynivka).
Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovskoe Direction): UA source STERNENKO reports a critical "lack of infantry" ("піхоти нема") in the Pokrovsk direction. Tsaplienko reports video of a drone entering a fortified position on the Pokrovskoe direction, liquidating an occupant, demonstrating continued UA FPV effectiveness. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports civilian assistance in Pokrovsk for identifying saboteurs. TASS reports Apty Alaudinov stating a "big breakthrough" on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, with significant RF advances. Шеф Hayabusa reports an RF FPV drone burned a car on the Pavlohrad-Pokrovsk/Slavianka-Mezhova highway. STERNENKO reports a significant UA requirement for 1,457 drones in the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka direction. MoD Russia provides video of a T-72B3M tank crew wiping out an enemy stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. RF MOD officially reports liberation of Shcherbynivka and Iskra in DNR. BUTUSOV PLUS reports continued "hide-and-seek" drone operations in Pokrovskoe direction. Операция Z reports RF FPV drone operators are destroying militants in the Pokrovskoe direction. Kotsnews provides video of drone footage from under Pokrovsk, showing military vehicles and engagements, reinforcing ongoing combat. Шеф Hayabusa provides video of drone footage capturing military activity and destruction of military vehicles on the Pokrovskoe direction. This video corroborates ongoing kinetic engagements in the sector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for UA source reports and FPV effectiveness; MEDIUM for implication of UA infantry shortage; HIGH for RF claims of breakthrough and territorial gains in Shcherbynivka and Iskra; HIGH for RF FPV effectiveness; HIGH for Kotsnews video; HIGH for Шеф Hayabusa video).
Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UA source Mykolaivskyi Vaniok reports the capture of a new RF prisoner from the 150th Division by Azov units in the Toretsk direction. RBK-Ukraine reports significant Russian losses in the areas of responsibility of the 1st Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine "Azov" in the Operational-Tactical Group "Donetsk". Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Scherbynivka, Yablunivka, Rusyn Yar and towards Stepanivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for capture; MEDIUM for broader conditions; HIGH for RF losses).
Luhansk Oblast (Siversk Direction): RF sources report combat operations by "3rd Shock" involving drone-guided artillery or direct fire engagements. MoD Russia reports a Metis ATGM team destroying an AFU stronghold in the Krasny Liman direction. TASS reports Marochko stating that Russian military needs to advance approximately 2 km to close a "fire bag" for AFU in Kremensky forests of LPR, indicating a specific tactical objective. TASS reports that military personnel of the 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces transmitted the coordinates of the command post to the Russian Armed Forces. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Novovodyane, Karpivka, Ridkodub, Kolodyazi and Torske in the Lyman direction, and Hryhorivka, Novoselivka and Pereyizne in the Siversk direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian forces broke through Ukrainian defense lines in the Lyman district. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for specific unit involvement; HIGH for ongoing combat activity and ATGM strike; HIGH for RF tactical objective; MEDIUM for TASS report veracity on UA defection, HIGH for its informational intent; HIGH for reported clashes and breakthrough).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): UA source Serhii Lysak reports sustained RF artillery and FPV drone attacks throughout the day targeting Nikopol and surrounding communities. Colonelcassad reports exclusive footage of the defeat of the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBr) in the Dnipropetrovsk direction, implying significant RF strike capability. Воин DV reports drone operators of the 36th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade destroying enemy manpower in the vicinity of Iskra, on the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. MoD Russia confirms the liberation of Iskra (Donetsk People's Republic), reinforcing RF gains. TASS reports RF controls all settlements at the junction of DNR and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast after the liberation of Iskra. NEW: Шеф Hayabusa reports (15:17:07Z) that RF forces are attacking residential areas in Mezheva, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with KABs. Serhii Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk ODA (OVA) provides photo evidence (15:30:02Z) of extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Nikopol and the surrounding communities of Marhanets, Myriv, and Pokrovsk due to enemy drone and artillery attacks throughout the day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Nikopolshchyna attacks; HIGH for RF UAS operations and tactical success; HIGH for liberation of Iskra and control of junction; HIGH for KAB strikes in Mezheva; HIGH for Nikopolshchyna civilian infrastructure damage).
Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkivskyi District): UA Air Force issues a "Warning! Kharkivskyi district!" alert. OTU "Kharkiv" reports on the "STRIKS" unit of the 4th Border Guard Detachment increasing the effectiveness of strikes. TASS reports Russian servicemen, having improved their position near Krasny Perviy, have taken control of approximately 6 km of the road leading to Dvorechnaya, Kharkiv Oblast. Олег Синєгубов reports 6 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were subjected to enemy strikes. ASTRA reports one person killed and one injured in Russian shelling of Kharkiv Oblast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Kharkiv Oblasts. Дневник Десантника reports a GUR reconnaissance group was eliminated by RF forces in the Kharkiv direction. Олег Синєгубов reports RF attacked a civilian vehicle near Kupyansk. ASTRA reports two people were killed in a Russian drone attack on a vehicle near Kupyansk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for warning, UA drone operations; HIGH for RF ISR and fire pressure; MEDIUM for veracity of claimed RF territorial advance, HIGH for its informational intent; HIGH for civilian casualties; HIGH for KAB launches; HIGH for GUR elimination; HIGH for Kupyansk civilian vehicle attack).
Chernihiv Oblast: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in the Chernihiv region. Colonelcassad provides a photo claiming to show what was hit by a missile strike on August 12 in Chernihiv Oblast. High-speed targets detected in Chernihiv Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports threat of strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast. Филолог в засаде reports enemy concentration in Chernihiv Oblast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for all reports).
Kherson Oblast (Left Bank Dnieper): UA source Tsaplienko reports an RF ammunition depot was destroyed on the left bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson Oblast. Tsaplienko also reports border guards destroying an RF floating craft and four vehicles. Colonelcassad reports "Ulyanovsk paratroopers" using "Msta-B" howitzers with "Krasnopol" precision-guided munitions to destroy UAV control points and manpower in Kherson Oblast. TASS reports an RF Lancet strike destroyed an American M-777 howitzer and a Ukrainian Bogdana self-propelled artillery unit on the right bank of the Dnieper. ASTRA reports on an alleged UA drone attack on a water park in Kherson Oblast. Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny reports enemy activating shelling on several directions, using drones, artillery, and aviation, shifting units with equipment, but UA units holding positions and conducting counteroffensive actions in the southern sector. This applies to Kherson/Zaporizhzhia. NEW: RBK-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS all report (15:27Z-15:30Z) that the Ukrainian Navy has obtained radio intercepts confirming the loss of a Russian Su-30SM fighter jet that was performing tasks southeast of Snake Island. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for ammo depot destruction, interdiction; MEDIUM for unit specificity, HIGH for precision artillery strike capability; HIGH for Lancet strike on M-777 and Bogdana, MEDIUM for BDA; HIGH for water park attack; HIGH for repelled assaults; HIGH for Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny report; HIGH for Su-30SM loss).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Colonelcassad reports the destruction of an AFU ammunition depot in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a Lancet strike UAV in the Lozove-Mezenivka area. Colonelcassad reports on a Russian tank making a path for infantry through a minefield. RF MOD reports a Grad MLRS crew thwarted an attempt to rotate AFU personnel. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Uspenivka, Novoandriyivka, Prymorske, Orikhiv, Chervona Krynytsya. Дневник Десантника requests donations for the 7th Airborne Assault Division for drones and Starlink. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports approval of shelter construction on Khortytsia Island. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny reports enemy activating shelling on several directions, using drones, artillery, and aviation, shifting units with equipment, but UA units holding positions and conducting counteroffensive actions in the southern sector. 🇺🇦 Zaporizhzhia обласна військова адміністрація (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration) issued an "ATTENTION" alert at 15:04:58Z, indicating a potential immediate threat or significant event in the region. This is likely an air raid alert. NEW: 🇺🇦 Zaporizhzhia обласна військова адміністрація (15:16:44Z) reports "All clear!" for the air raid alert. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for ammo depot destruction, Lancet activity; HIGH for tank breaching; HIGH for MLRS interdiction; HIGH for RF airstrikes; HIGH for RF logistical needs; HIGH for Khortytsia shelter approval; HIGH for Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny report; HIGH for Zaporizhzhia OVA alert; HIGH for air raid all clear).
Kupyansk Axis: The previous daily report indicated a decisive shift of RF main effort to the Kupyansk axis, with capture of Ivanivka and intensified preparatory fire. This area is now considered the primary focus of RF offensive operations. Oleg Syniehubov reports on RF strikes on 6 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast. BUTUSOV PLUS provides a video documenting a "risky but successful sortie" by a Ukrainian tank close to enemy positions. Oleg Syniehubov reports RF attacked a civilian vehicle near Kupyansk. ASTRA reports two people were killed in a Russian drone attack on a vehicle under Kupyansk. Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Kharkiv Oblast. Военкор Котенок posts photos labeled "Kupyansk direction." NEW: Военкор Котенок reports (15:35:11Z) contradictory information regarding the situation near Petropavlivka on the Kupyansk direction, stating that the enemy (UA) is attempting counterattacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Kupyansk axis shift and Ivanivka capture; HIGH for RF strikes; HIGH for UA tank sortie; HIGH for civilian vehicle attack and casualties; HIGH for KAB launches; HIGH for Petropavlivka counterattack report).
Overall Frontline: RF continues to employ FPV drone swarms and Lancet loitering munitions, with a reported 20% increase in Lancet strikes in the last 24 hours. RF sources claim successful destruction of UA drone repeater stations and command posts. UA source BUTUSOV PLUS provides video evidence of an FPV drone strike against RF soldiers. STERNENKO provides video showing UA special forces downing 6 drones in the Zaporizhzhia direction. RF MOD released a video showing strikes against Ukrainian assets, including 'LELEKA-100' and 'SHARK-M' drones, and 'BERGEPANZER 2' and 'KOZAK' vehicles. Tsaplienko reports an FPV drone being caught in "Yahoza" (razor wire) and "Putanka" (tangled wire) nets. Colonelcassad reports training exercises on shooting down drones with shotguns/rifles in Donbas, featuring a Russian practical shooting champion, indicating RF adaptation. General Staff of AFU reports approximately 990 RF personnel losses in the last 24 hours. Air Force of Ukraine reports 24 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed. RF attacked with 2 S-300/400 missiles and 45 drones, with 24 drones shot down. TASS confirms Belgorod Governor Gladkov confirming three people were injured in a UAV strike by AFU on Belgorod. A new prisoner exchange of 84 servicemen by each side was conducted. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports the dismissal of the 47th OMBr battalion commander. General Staff of AFU reports 1432 tanks and 3087 armored fighting vehicles destroyed, and 276,300 RF personnel losses since the beginning of the year. BUTUSOV PLUS video shows a skeleton of an RF soldier on a destroyed armored vehicle, implying lack of RF evacuation efforts and high attrition. Военкор Котенок posts videos of Russian soldiers returning from "Bandera captivity," consistent with the recent prisoner exchange. STERNENKO reports "Today we have a weak 'rusorez' (Russian cutter)," implying a less effective day for Ukrainian forces in inflicting losses on RF, indicating fluctuating combat intensity. NEW: MoD Russia provides a video (15:32:13Z) showing Russian military personnel, wrapped in Russian flags, expressing gratitude for their return, with one individual explicitly thanking the Ministry of Defense and the President, reinforcing the recent prisoner exchange. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for all previous reports; HIGH for STERNENKO's current assessment; HIGH for MoD Russia video on prisoner return).
Deep Rear (Sumi Oblast/Tatarstan/Belgorod/Kyiv Oblast/Chernihiv Oblast/Dnipropetrovsk Oblast/Zaporizhzhia Oblast/Volgograd/Rostov-on-Don/Bryansk/Kursk): UA source Alex Parker Returns reports detention of four individuals in Tatarstan attempting to impersonate RF servicemen with "imitations" of Orlan-10 drones. RF sources report ongoing drone attacks on Belgorod, with dozens of targets engaged. Operatsiya Z reports "Massive enemy attacks on Belgorod Oblast - civilians killed and wounded." ASTRA provides video of Belgorod Governor Gladkov confirming the attack on the government building, with visible damage. TASS reports Ukrainian servicemen are disappearing by platoons and companies near Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports activity of reconnaissance UAVs and KAB launches in Sumy Oblast, and high-speed targets in Chernihiv Oblast. Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) announces air raid alert for Kyiv due to ballistic missile threat from the north. ASTRA and RBK-Ukraine report a Ukrainian drone attack on the Volgograd Oil Refinery (NPP "Lukoil"), resulting in spilled and burning oil products. Operatyvnyi ZSU provides satellite imagery appearing to confirm significant damage. RF MOD reports 44 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over regions of the Russian Federation overnight. TASS reports RF FSB claims of destroying Ukrainian long-range missile production, including "Sapsan" missiles. ASTRA reports three people injured in a drone attack on Belgorod. ASTRA reports photo damage to a 16-story residential building in Volgograd after drone attacks. ASTRA reports a child and a man were injured in a Russian missile strike in Sumy Oblast. Kotsnews provides multiple videos from Belgorod showing aftermath of drone attacks. ASTRA reports one person killed and one injured in Russian shelling of Kharkiv Oblast. TASS confirms RF air defense shot down 8 Ukrainian UAVs over Belgorod Oblast and 2 over Krasnodar Krai. TASS reports RF Investigative Committee opened terrorism cases for attacks on civilian targets in Rostov-on-Don and Belgorod. TASS reports a powerful explosion in Rostov-on-Don after a missile danger alert, with multiple sources corroborating a drone impact on a multi-story building and 13 injured. Dn. Desantnika reports a UA drone attack on the Druzhba oil pipeline in Bryansk Oblast. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ explicitly states that SBS ZSU, GUR MOU, and other elements attacked the Volgograd Oil Refinery. TASS reports Ukraine unable to fully restore missile production, confirming the impact of RF deep strikes. TASS reports RF struck HIMARS positions with an Iskander-M in Zhykhove, Sumy Oblast. Kyiv City Military Administration reports lifting of air raid alert. Air Force of Ukraine reports lifting of ballistic missile threat for all oblasts. Colonelcassad video shows a drone strike against an RF T-80BVM tank near Kiyanitsa, Sumy Oblast. TASS video features RF Special Representative Dmitriev discussing expectations for Putin-Trump meeting in Alaska. TASS reports Putin will visit a Russian region on the way to Alaska. ASTRA reports police lieutenant colonel and senior criminal investigator injured in strike on district court building in Belgorod. Alex Parker Returns reports Russia transferred 810 tons of flour and 60.7 tons of sunflower oil to Tajikistan as part of a school meal program, indicating broader RF humanitarian and diplomatic outreach, likely to counter international isolation efforts. NEW: ASTRA reports (15:26:35Z) Rosaviatsiya has introduced temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd Airport, corroborating previous reports of drone activity in the area. TASS also confirms (15:28:27Z) temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd airport. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for Tatarstan detention and purpose; HIGH for Belgorod drone activity, casualties, and government building attack; MEDIUM for TASS report veracity on Sumy disappearances; HIGH for UA Air Force alerts, KAB launches, and high-speed targets; HIGH for Kyiv ballistic alerts; HIGH for Volgograd NPP attack and BDA; HIGH for RF MOD UAV shootdown claims; HIGH for TASS FSB missile claims and corroboration on Sapsan destruction; HIGH for Sumy civilian casualties; HIGH for Rostov-on-Don explosion and casualties; HIGH for Bryansk pipeline attack; HIGH for UA official claim of Volgograd strike; HIGH for TASS report on missile production impact; HIGH for HIMARS strike; HIGH for Kyiv air raid all-clear; HIGH for Sumy Oblast tank strike; HIGH for TASS Dmitriev video; HIGH for TASS Putin travel plan; HIGH for ASTRA Belgorod district court strike; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns report on aid to Tajikistan; HIGH for Volgograd airport restrictions).
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
Ukrainian Forces: Maintain a defensive posture, particularly in Donetsk Oblast. Training images of tanks suggest ongoing readiness efforts. Despite challenges (e.g., claimed infantry shortages), UA continues to inflict losses on RF forces (990 RF personnel losses reported by General Staff, and 1432 tanks / 3087 AFVs, 276,300 personnel losses since year start). UA leadership, including President Zelenskyy, maintains a firm diplomatic stance on territorial integrity and conditions for peace talks. UA sources publicly acknowledge tactical challenges (e.g., infantry shortages in Pokrovsk). UA forces continue drone operations into RF territory. UA helicopter pilots are reportedly engaging RF "Shaheds" at close range. UA Cabinet of Ministers proposes changes to mobilization deferment rules for students and educators, and changes to booking rules for agricultural enterprises. General Prosecutor's Office reports 22 suspicions handed to Kyiv City State Administration officials. RBK-Ukraine reports that a Member of Parliament from the banned OPZZh party, Khrystenko, has been declared wanted. Zaporizhzhia OVA reported the delivery of new specialized equipment to communities. UA border guards are conducting successful interdiction operations. UA airborne forces are preparing Ukrainian soil for autumn sowing. RBK-Ukraine reports on proposal to fine citizens for violating curfew. UA's Tsaplienko reports the US is actively studying the experience of the Ukrainian army. Zelenskyy reiterates support for Trump's peace efforts on the condition that the path to peace is not determined without Ukraine. RBK-Ukraine reports on proposals from Prime Minister Shmyhal to increase leave and payments for military personnel released from captivity. Tsaplienko highlights the use of "Yahoza" (razor wire) and "Putanka" (tangled wire) nets as effective passive defense against FPV drones. UA General Staff reports approximately 990 RF personnel losses in the last 24 hours. Air Force of Ukraine reports 24 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed. RF attacked with 2 S-300/400 missiles and 45 drones, with 24 drones shot down. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports President Zelenskyy will meet UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London. ЦАПЛІЄНКО (06:20Z) provides a graphic stating "Britain refused the idea of introducing a 30,000-strong contingent into Ukraine — The Times." Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (09:06Z) confirms UA deep strike on Volgograd Oil Refinery. 🇺🇦 Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (10:10Z) reports 1.5 billion USD in PURL (Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List) funding has been secured, for procurement of US-made weapons. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (11:04Z) posts video of UA airborne fighting a Russian assault near Kursk, demonstrating cross-border offensive capabilities. The SBU released exclusive video of the 14 August prisoner exchange. Air Force of Ukraine reports all clear for ballistic missile threat. 🇺🇦 Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports approval of shelter construction on Khortytsia Island. Шеф Hayabusa requests donations for Mavic 4Pro for 77th DSHV Brigade. Воин DV reports Zelenskyy arrived in London. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Trump expects a dispute over borders and territories with Putin, and will apply sanctions if the meeting ends unsuccessfully. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny reports Ukrainian units holding positions and conducting counteroffensive actions in the southern sector. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (MOBILIZATION | News | Conscripts) provides a video message titled "Bullying of refuseniks," which could imply internal Ukrainian issues with personnel refusing service, though the source is Russian. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports (15:16:12Z) the appointment of Oleksandr Rashevsky as the new commander of the National Police of Ukraine's "Lyut" (Fury) Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for all previous reports; LOW for veracity of "Bullying of refuseniks" video as a direct indicator of UA military disposition, MEDIUM for its informational intent by RF; HIGH for new commander appointment).
Russian Forces: Concentrating elite VDV units and deploying advanced EW systems (R-330ZH Zhitel) near Bakhmut/Chasiv Yar. Repositioning S-300 battalions for potential surface-to-surface roles. Intensifying artillery, including TOS-1A thermobaric systems. RF Defense Minister Belousov is meeting with military correspondents to discuss drone production, supplies, and social support. RF forces are actively engaging UA drones. RF source Zvezdets Mangust claims RF command has moved "a number of units and formations from the North" to the Southern and Southern part of Eastern operational zones. RF source Voenkor Kotenok video features RF soldiers requesting Mavic 3 and Mavic 3 Pro drones. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ provides a video showing field dental clinics. Два майора is still requesting charitable support for forces. TASS reports Northern Fleet has begun exercises involving 2,000 military personnel, up to 14 ships and submarines. Operatsiya Z reports detention of an "Orlan" reconnaissance UAV crew for the MoD. ASTRA reports RF police detained Russian cadets launching drones in Tatarstan. STERNENKO reports a "drone safety" alert for multiple RF oblasts. RF's Parliament speaker Volodin has arrived in Pyongyang, North Korea. НгП раZVедка provides an update indicating that ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine will continue regardless of US diplomatic initiatives. Colonelcassad shares a video depicting an alleged abduction of a man and a woman in Lutsk, claiming such incidents are common and aimed at forced conscription. MoD Russia shares a "Top News Today" image. Rybar's post with a caption "Blitzkrieg in the sector - to be?", implying significant RF offensive preparations. TASS reports a bill will be introduced for AI use in campaign materials. TASS reports Ukrainian soldier Alexey Levchenko stated he surrendered to Russian servicemen on the advice of his parents. TASS features Serbian sniper Dejan Berić, a "volunteer" in the Russian army. TASS indicates that captured Ukrainian soldier Alexey Levchenko claims his brigade consists of "disabled and mentally ill people." TASS indicates that a commander of an Airborne Reconnaissance Battalion (callsign Manul) stating that after "liberating Chasov Yar," fighting has moved into the adjacent forest, where Russian forces are destroying "pedestrian groups" and "UAV control points." The US delegation for the Alaska talks has been identified. Serhii Lysak of Dnipropetrovsk ODA (OVA) held a defense council meeting, processing requests from military, discussing mobilization progress, and defensive line construction. Kadyrov_95 posts video of Akhmat battalion operating in Vovchansk (Kharkiv direction), targeting UA personnel in residential areas. WarGonzo claims RF forces are taking control of the Dobropillya-Kramatorsk highway. RBK-Ukraine reports no documents planned after Putin-Trump summit. TASS confirms no documents planned after summit and that discussion of Ukrainian conflict will happen at subsequent stages. Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms no documents after summit. TASS reports Putin "wants a peace agreement" (Trump quote). TASS video shows a 100-year-old veteran expressing patriotic feelings. TASS Special Representative Dmitriev discusses expectations for meeting. Два майора video contrasts Zelenskyy and Putin. TASS reports Trump uncertainty about joint press conference. TASS reports Trump wants joint press conference. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Trump-Putin meeting will be "exchange of views on borders and territories." Alex Parker Returns reports Trump views Putin as tough opponent, doesn't expect immediate ceasefire. RBK-Ukraine reports Trump says summit will be "dispute over borders and lands." TASS reports Putin to visit Russian region en route to Alaska. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Trump will call Zelenskyy after talking with Putin. Военкор Котенок shares images of personal documents (passport, medical reports), seemingly a "cry for help" from a subscriber - no military significance. KMVA shows civilian road construction near Kyiv military hospital. Два майора requests support for "MAH". Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Trump "would impose sanctions" if things unresolved. Alex Parker Returns disinformation regarding Sec. Rubio and Zelenskyy on territory exchange. RBK-Ukraine reports Trump expects ceasefire "will happen" eventually. TASS reports Trump assesses 75% success chance for meeting. MoD Russia video shows 103rd Motor Rifle Regiment liberating Shcherbynivka in Donetsk. Дневник Десантника posts about additional leave for combat veterans. STERNENKO relays Trump's ambiguous statements about the summit. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ photo caption "Attempted attack on Tetkino" implies UA border activity. BUTUSOV PLUS video shows skeleton of RF soldier on destroyed armored vehicle. Два майора provides update from Belgorod governor on probable provocations on the border and enemy concentration on Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod directions with intent to occupy border villages for negotiation. TASS reports special flight Il-96 for RF-US summit arrived in Anchorage. TASS reports Russian Ministry of Justice added "Reporters Without Borders" to the list of undesirable organizations. Дневник Десантника reports RF forces struck Dobropolye with 6 KABs. TASS shares a photo message featuring US Treasury Secretary Yellen with a caption urging Europeans demanding sanctions against RF to "shut up," which is a clear RF information operation aiming to portray division within Western allies and discredit sanction efforts. Два майора posts a video of "Own production of premium quality delicacies," which is not militarily relevant but could be used to project a sense of normalcy and self-sufficiency within RF. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message claiming Russia transferred humanitarian aid (flour, sunflower oil) to Tajikistan, showcasing RF's broader geopolitical outreach and soft power efforts. NEW: TASS reports (15:16:01Z) that the Ministry of Education has launched a special chatbot for Russian educators to send questions and suggestions to Sergey Kravtsov. TASS (15:22:01Z) reports that the Moscow City Court (Mosgorsud) has informed TASS about a fake mailing list regarding citizens being included in the list of candidates for the jury panel. ТАСС (15:33:08Z) reports that Belousov held a meeting with the heads of defense departments of the Sahel states, as reported by the Russian Ministry of Defense, with video showing a strategic meeting. Два майора (15:34:04Z) posts multiple photos under the caption "Soldier's everyday life," depicting daily activities, some showing military uniforms and gear, but no direct combat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for VDV concentration, EW deployment, S-300 repositioning, artillery intensification; HIGH for Belousov meeting; HIGH for counter-drone actions; MEDIUM for unit redeployments; HIGH for Mavic requests, field dental clinics, charity requests; HIGH for Northern Fleet exercises; MEDIUM for Orlan crew detention, Tatarstan cadets, HIGH for drone safety alerts; HIGH for NK delegation; HIGH for continued ballistic strikes intent; HIGH for Lutsk abduction claim IO; HIGH for MoD Top News IO; HIGH for Blitzkrieg IO; HIGH for AI in campaign materials; HIGH for Levchenko surrender IO; HIGH for Berić IO; HIGH for Manul Chasiv Yar claim; HIGH for Alaska delegation ID; HIGH for Dnipropetrovsk defense council; HIGH for Kadyrov_95 Vovchansk video; HIGH for WarGonzo Dobropillya highway claim; HIGH for no summit documents; HIGH for TASS Peskov quote; HIGH for Trump peace intent IO; HIGH for TASS veteran video IO; HIGH for TASS Dmitriev video IO; HIGH for Два майора IO video; HIGH for Trump presser intent; HIGH for Trump "borders and territories" quote; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns Trump quote; HIGH for Putin travel; HIGH for Trump-Zelenskyy call setup; LOW for military relevance of Kotenok documents; HIGH for civilian construction updates; HIGH for Два майора requests; HIGH for Trump sanctions intent; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns IO; HIGH for Trump ceasefire quote; HIGH for Trump success chance; HIGH for MoD Russia Shcherbynivka video; HIGH for Дневник Десантника leave info; HIGH for STERNENKO Trump summary; HIGH for ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ Tetkino report; HIGH for BUTUSOV PLUS video; HIGH for Два майора border provocation report; HIGH for TASS Anchorage flight; HIGH for TASS Reporters Without Borders report; HIGH for Дневник Десантника Dobropolye strike; HIGH for TASS Yellen photo message as an IO effort; LOW for military relevance of Два майора's "delicacies" video; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns Tajikistan aid report; LOW for direct military relevance of chatbot, HIGH for its civil administration context; HIGH for TASS fake mailing list; HIGH for Belousov/Sahel meeting; MEDIUM for military relevance of Два майора's "Soldier's everyday life" photos, HIGH for IO intent).
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Intentions:
Russian Forces:
Ukrainian Forces:
Russian Forces:
Ukrainian Forces:
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
Successes:
Setbacks:
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
Russian Propaganda (HIGH):
Ukrainian Counter-Propaganda (HIGH):
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
Ukrainian Public Sentiment:
Russian Public Sentiment:
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
Support for Ukraine (HIGH):
Support for Russia (HIGH):
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
Immediate Cyber Defense Posture (HIGH PRIORITY):
Adaptive EW Countermeasures (HIGH PRIORITY):
Force Protection and Dispersal on Kupyansk Axis (HIGH PRIORITY):
Intensified ISR for RF Main Effort (CRITICAL PRIORITY):
Reinforce Pokrovsk and Lyman Defense (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Sustained Deep Strike Campaign (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Proactive Information Operations (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
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