Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 141500Z AUG 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar/Ivanivske Axis): RF forces, specifically elements of the 98th Guards Airborne Division (VDV), continue to concentrate in forward assembly areas between Bakhmut and Ivanivske. RF has secured a foothold in eastern Ivanivske, likely to fix UA forces and secure a southern flank for the main Chasiv Yar assault. Probing attacks towards eastern Chasiv Yar micro-district are ongoing. Air Force of Ukraine reports multiple Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches by enemy tactical aviation targeting Donetsk Oblast. TASS indicates that after "liberating Chasov Yar," fighting has moved into the adjacent forest, where Russian forces are destroying "pedestrian groups" and "UAV control points." This implies a claimed RF advance beyond Chasiv Yar. Colonelcassad provides video of FPV drone strikes by RF "CENTER" grouping destroying a Ukrainian temporary deployment point (PVD), suggesting continued tactical effectiveness. TASS confirms liberation of Shcherbynivka (Donetsk) by a Southern Group assault team, who report encountering drones and kamikazes. MoD Russia confirms this liberation and explicitly states units of the 103rd Motorised Rifle Regiment knocked the enemy out of Shcherbynivka. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian forces broke through Ukrainian defense lines in the Lyman district, Donetsk region, with video showing a Ukrainian tank engaging Russian forces. Operatyvnyi ZSU provides video of a UA 63rd OMBr tank engaging RF FPV drones and personnel at close range in Torske on the Lyman direction, indicating continued heavy fighting and UA resistance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for force concentration, tactical maneuvers, Ivanivske foothold, KAB launches, and reported current combat zone; MEDIUM for Chasiv Yar "liberation" claim; HIGH for FPV strikes, Shcherbynivka liberation; HIGH for Lyman breakthrough; HIGH for Torske engagement; HIGH for MoD Russia confirmation of Shcherbynivka liberation by 103rd MRR).

• Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovskoe Direction): UA source STERNENKO reports a critical "lack of infantry" ("піхоти нема") in the Pokrovsk direction. Tsaplienko reports video of a drone entering a fortified position on the Pokrovskoe direction, liquidating an occupant, demonstrating continued UA FPV effectiveness. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports civilian assistance in Pokrovsk for identifying saboteurs. TASS reports Apty Alaudinov stating a "big breakthrough" on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, with significant RF advances. Шеф Hayabusa reports an RF FPV drone burned a car on the Pavlohrad-Pokrovsk/Slavianka-Mezhova highway. STERNENKO reports a significant UA requirement for 1,457 drones in the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka direction. MoD Russia provides video of a T-72B3M tank crew wiping out an enemy stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. RF MOD officially reports liberation of Shcherbynivka and Iskra in DNR. BUTUSOV PLUS reports continued "hide-and-seek" drone operations in Pokrovskoe direction. Операция Z reports RF FPV drone operators are destroying militants in the Pokrovskoe direction. NEW: Kotsnews provides video of drone footage from under Pokrovsk, showing military vehicles and engagements, reinforcing ongoing combat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for UA source reports and FPV effectiveness; MEDIUM for implication of UA infantry shortage; HIGH for RF claims of breakthrough and territorial gains in Shcherbynivka and Iskra; HIGH for RF FPV effectiveness; HIGH for Kotsnews video).

• Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UA source Mykolaivskyi Vaniok reports the capture of a new RF prisoner from the 150th Division by Azov units in the Toretsk direction. RBK-Ukraine reports significant Russian losses in the areas of responsibility of the 1st Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine "Azov" in the Operational-Tactical Group "Donetsk". Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Scherbynivka, Yablunivka, Rusyn Yar and towards Stepanivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for capture; MEDIUM for broader conditions; HIGH for RF losses).

• Luhansk Oblast (Siversk Direction): RF sources report combat operations by "3rd Shock" involving drone-guided artillery or direct fire engagements. MoD Russia reports a Metis ATGM team destroying an AFU stronghold in the Krasny Liman direction. TASS reports Marochko stating that Russian military needs to advance approximately 2 km to close a "fire bag" for AFU in Kremensky forests of LPR, indicating a specific tactical objective. TASS reports that military personnel of the 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces transmitted the coordinates of the command post to the Russian Armed Forces. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Novovodyane, Karpivka, Ridkodub, Kolodyazi and Torske in the Lyman direction, and Hryhorivka, Novoselivka and Pereyizne in the Siversk direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian forces broke through Ukrainian defense lines in the Lyman district. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for specific unit involvement; HIGH for ongoing combat activity and ATGM strike; HIGH for RF tactical objective; MEDIUM for TASS report veracity on UA defection, HIGH for its informational intent; HIGH for reported clashes and breakthrough).

• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): UA source Serhii Lysak reports sustained RF artillery and FPV drone attacks throughout the day targeting Nikopol and surrounding communities. Colonelcassad reports exclusive footage of the defeat of the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBr) in the Dnipropetrovsk direction, implying significant RF strike capability. Воин DV reports drone operators of the 36th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade destroying enemy manpower in the vicinity of Iskra, on the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. MoD Russia confirms the liberation of Iskra (Donetsk People's Republic), reinforcing RF gains. TASS reports RF controls all settlements at the junction of DNR and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast after the liberation of Iskra. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Nikopolshchyna attacks; HIGH for RF UAS operations and tactical success; HIGH for liberation of Iskra and control of junction).

• Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkivskyi District): UA Air Force issues a "Warning! Kharkivskyi district!" alert. OTU "Kharkiv" reports on the "STRIKS" unit of the 4th Border Guard Detachment increasing the effectiveness of strikes. TASS reports Russian servicemen, having improved their position near Krasny Perviy, have taken control of approximately 6 km of the road leading to Dvorechnaya, Kharkiv Oblast. Олег Синєгубов reports 6 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were subjected to enemy strikes. ASTRA reports one person killed and one injured in Russian shelling of Kharkiv Oblast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Kharkiv Oblasts. Дневник Десантника reports a GUR reconnaissance group was eliminated by RF forces in the Kharkiv direction. Олег Синєгубов reports RF attacked a civilian vehicle near Kupyansk. ASTRA reports two people were killed in a Russian drone attack on a vehicle near Kupyansk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for warning, UA drone operations; HIGH for RF ISR and fire pressure; MEDIUM for veracity of claimed RF territorial advance, HIGH for its informational intent; HIGH for civilian casualties; HIGH for KAB launches; HIGH for GUR elimination; HIGH for Kupyansk civilian vehicle attack).

• Chernihiv Oblast: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in the Chernihiv region. Colonelcassad provides a photo claiming to show what was hit by a missile strike on August 12 in Chernihiv Oblast. High-speed targets detected in Chernihiv Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports threat of strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast. Филолог в засаде reports enemy concentration in Chernihiv Oblast. NEW: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for all reports).

• Kherson Oblast (Left Bank Dnieper): UA source Tsaplienko reports an RF ammunition depot was destroyed on the left bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson Oblast. Tsaplienko also reports border guards destroying an RF floating craft and four vehicles. Colonelcassad reports "Ulyanovsk paratroopers" using "Msta-B" howitzers with "Krasnopol" precision-guided munitions to destroy UAV control points and manpower in Kherson Oblast. TASS reports an RF Lancet strike destroyed an American M-777 howitzer and a Ukrainian Bogdana self-propelled artillery unit on the right bank of the Dnieper. ASTRA reports on an alleged UA drone attack on a water park in Kherson Oblast. Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny reports enemy activating shelling on several directions, using drones, artillery, and aviation, shifting units with equipment, but UA units holding positions and conducting counteroffensive actions in the southern sector. This applies to Kherson/Zaporizhzhia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for ammo depot destruction, interdiction; MEDIUM for unit specificity, HIGH for precision artillery strike capability; HIGH for Lancet strike on M-777 and Bogdana, MEDIUM for BDA; HIGH for water park attack; HIGH for repelled assaults; HIGH for Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny report).

• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Colonelcassad reports the destruction of an AFU ammunition depot in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a Lancet strike UAV in the Lozove-Mezenivka area. Colonelcassad reports on a Russian tank making a path for infantry through a minefield. RF MOD reports a Grad MLRS crew thwarted an attempt to rotate AFU personnel. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Uspenivka, Novoandriyivka, Prymorske, Orikhiv, Chervona Krynytsya. Дневник Десантника requests donations for the 7th Airborne Assault Division for drones and Starlink. NEW: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports approval of shelter construction on Khortytsia Island. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny reports enemy activating shelling on several directions, using drones, artillery, and aviation, shifting units with equipment, but UA units holding positions and conducting counteroffensive actions in the southern sector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for ammo depot destruction, Lancet activity; HIGH for tank breaching; HIGH for MLRS interdiction; HIGH for RF airstrikes; HIGH for RF logistical needs; HIGH for Khortytsia shelter approval; HIGH for Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny report).

• Kupyansk Axis: The previous daily report indicated a decisive shift of RF main effort to the Kupyansk axis, with capture of Ivanivka and intensified preparatory fire. This area is now considered the primary focus of RF offensive operations. Oleg Syniehubov reports on RF strikes on 6 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast. BUTUSOV PLUS provides a video documenting a "risky but successful sortie" by a Ukrainian tank close to enemy positions. Oleg Syniehubov reports RF attacked a civilian vehicle near Kupyansk. ASTRA reports two people were killed in a Russian drone attack on a vehicle under Kupyansk. Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Kharkiv Oblast. Военкор Котенок posts photos labeled "Kupyansk direction." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Kupyansk axis shift and Ivanivka capture; HIGH for RF strikes; HIGH for UA tank sortie; HIGH for civilian vehicle attack and casualties; HIGH for KAB launches).

• Overall Frontline: RF continues to employ FPV drone swarms and Lancet loitering munitions, with a reported 20% increase in Lancet strikes in the last 24 hours. RF sources claim successful destruction of UA drone repeater stations and command posts. UA source BUTUSOV PLUS provides video evidence of an FPV drone strike against RF soldiers. STERNENKO provides video showing UA special forces downing 6 drones in the Zaporizhzhia direction. RF MOD released a video showing strikes against Ukrainian assets, including 'LELEKA-100' and 'SHARK-M' drones, and 'BERGEPANZER 2' and 'KOZAK' vehicles. Tsaplienko reports an FPV drone being caught in "Yahoza" (razor wire) and "Putanka" (tangled wire) nets. Colonelcassad reports training exercises on shooting down drones with shotguns/rifles in Donbas, featuring a Russian practical shooting champion, indicating RF adaptation. General Staff of AFU reports approximately 990 RF personnel losses in the last 24 hours. Air Force of Ukraine reports 24 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed. RF attacked with 2 S-300/400 missiles and 45 drones, with 24 drones shot down. TASS confirms Belgorod Governor Gladkov confirming three people were injured in a UAV strike by AFU on Belgorod. A new prisoner exchange of 84 servicemen by each side was conducted. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports the dismissal of the 47th OMBr battalion commander. NEW: General Staff of AFU reports 1432 tanks and 3087 armored fighting vehicles destroyed, and 276,300 RF personnel losses since the beginning of the year. BUTUSOV PLUS video shows a skeleton of an RF soldier on a destroyed armored vehicle, implying lack of RF evacuation efforts and high attrition. Военкор Котенок posts videos of Russian soldiers returning from "Bandera captivity," consistent with the recent prisoner exchange. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for UAV/loitering munition use and increased frequency; MEDIUM for claimed RF counter-UAS effectiveness; HIGH for UA FPV strike; HIGH for UA counter-UAS; HIGH for RF target claims; HIGH for Yahoza/Putanka effectiveness; HIGH for RF training; HIGH for UA reported RF losses; HIGH for AD performance; HIGH for civilian casualties from UA deep strikes; HIGH for POW exchange; HIGH for command change; HIGH for General Staff of AFU casualty figures; HIGH for BUTUSOV PLUS video and inference on RF recovery efforts; HIGH for Военкор Котенок's videos of returned prisoners).

• Deep Rear (Sumi Oblast/Tatarstan/Belgorod/Kyiv Oblast/Chernihiv Oblast/Dnipropetrovsk Oblast/Zaporizhzhia Oblast/Volgograd/Rostov-on-Don/Bryansk/Kursk): UA source Alex Parker Returns reports detention of four individuals in Tatarstan attempting to impersonate RF servicemen with "imitations" of Orlan-10 drones. RF sources report ongoing drone attacks on Belgorod, with dozens of targets engaged. Operatsiya Z reports "Massive enemy attacks on Belgorod Oblast - civilians killed and wounded." ASTRA provides video of Belgorod Governor Gladkov confirming the attack on the government building, with visible damage. TASS reports Ukrainian servicemen are disappearing by platoons and companies near Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports activity of reconnaissance UAVs and KAB launches in Sumy Oblast, and high-speed targets in Chernihiv Oblast. Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) announces air raid alert for Kyiv due to ballistic missile threat from the north. ASTRA and RBK-Ukraine report a Ukrainian drone attack on the Volgograd Oil Refinery (NPP "Lukoil"), resulting in spilled and burning oil products. Operatyvnyi ZSU provides satellite imagery appearing to confirm significant damage. RF MOD reports 44 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over regions of the Russian Federation overnight. TASS reports RF FSB claims of destroying Ukrainian long-range missile production, including "Sapsan" missiles. ASTRA reports three people injured in a drone attack on Belgorod. ASTRA reports photo damage to a 16-story residential building in Volgograd after drone attacks. ASTRA reports a child and a man were injured in a Russian missile strike in Sumy Oblast. Kotsnews provides multiple videos from Belgorod showing aftermath of drone attacks. ASTRA reports one person killed and one injured in Russian shelling of Kharkiv Oblast. TASS confirms RF air defense shot down 8 Ukrainian UAVs over Belgorod Oblast and 2 over Krasnodar Krai. TASS reports RF Investigative Committee opened terrorism cases for attacks on civilian targets in Rostov-on-Don and Belgorod. TASS reports a powerful explosion in Rostov-on-Don after a missile danger alert, with multiple sources corroborating a drone impact on a multi-story building and 13 injured. Dn. Desantnika reports a UA drone attack on the Druzhba oil pipeline in Bryansk Oblast. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ explicitly states that SBS ZSU, GUR MOU, and other elements attacked the Volgograd Oil Refinery. TASS reports Ukraine unable to fully restore missile production, confirming the impact of RF deep strikes. TASS reports RF struck HIMARS positions with an Iskander-M in Zhykhove, Sumy Oblast. NEW: Kyiv City Military Administration reports lifting of air raid alert. Air Force of Ukraine reports lifting of ballistic missile threat for all oblasts. Colonelcassad video shows a drone strike against an RF T-80BVM tank near Kiyanitsa, Sumy Oblast. TASS video features RF Special Representative Dmitriev discussing expectations for Putin-Trump meeting in Alaska. TASS reports Putin will visit a Russian region on the way to Alaska. ASTRA reports police lieutenant colonel and senior criminal investigator injured in strike on district court building in Belgorod. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for Tatarstan detention and purpose; HIGH for Belgorod drone activity, casualties, and government building attack; MEDIUM for TASS report veracity on Sumy disappearances; HIGH for UA Air Force alerts, KAB launches, and high-speed targets; HIGH for Kyiv ballistic alerts; HIGH for Volgograd NPP attack and BDA; HIGH for RF MOD UAV shootdown claims; HIGH for TASS FSB missile claims and corroboration on Sapsan destruction; HIGH for Sumy civilian casualties; HIGH for Rostov-on-Don explosion and casualties; HIGH for Bryansk pipeline attack; HIGH for UA official claim of Volgograd strike; HIGH for TASS report on missile production impact; HIGH for HIMARS strike; HIGH for Kyiv air raid all-clear; HIGH for Sumy Oblast tank strike; HIGH for TASS Dmitriev video; HIGH for TASS Putin travel plan; HIGH for ASTRA Belgorod district court strike).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• No new significant weather or environmental factors affecting operations in Ukraine reported. Mud-covered all-terrain vehicle in SSO photo implies challenging terrain conditions. ASTRA reports severe road damage due to rockfalls and a destroyed bridge in Krasnodar Krai, Russia, indicating potential localized logistical challenges for RF. Anatolii Shtefan "Shtirlits" reports severe drought in Melitopol area. Олег Синєгубов posts photos about "Fire danger in Kharkiv Oblast," showing forest fires. Воин DV reports strong wind affecting drone operations, confirming direct weather impact on tactical UAS. NEW: Новости Москвы reports Moscow not expecting summer warmth in second half of August, indicating potential broader cold front development to the north, which might impact operations in northern UA/RF border regions later. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for all; HIGH for wind impact on UAS; LOW for immediate tactical impact of Moscow weather, MEDIUM for broader environmental implications).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• Ukrainian Forces: Maintain a defensive posture, particularly in Donetsk Oblast. Training images of tanks suggest ongoing readiness efforts. Despite challenges (e.g., claimed infantry shortages), UA continues to inflict losses on RF forces (990 RF personnel losses reported by General Staff, and 1432 tanks / 3087 AFVs, 276,300 personnel losses since year start). UA leadership, including President Zelenskyy, maintains a firm diplomatic stance on territorial integrity and conditions for peace talks. UA sources publicly acknowledge tactical challenges (e.g., infantry shortages in Pokrovsk). UA forces continue drone operations into RF territory. UA helicopter pilots are reportedly engaging RF "Shaheds" at close range. UA Cabinet of Ministers proposes changes to mobilization deferment rules for students and educators, and changes to booking rules for agricultural enterprises. General Prosecutor's Office reports 22 suspicions handed to Kyiv City State Administration officials. RBK-Ukraine reports that a Member of Parliament from the banned OPZZh party, Khrystenko, has been declared wanted. Zaporizhzhia OVA reported the delivery of new specialized equipment to communities. UA border guards are conducting successful interdiction operations. UA airborne forces are preparing Ukrainian soil for autumn sowing. RBK-Ukraine reports on proposal to fine citizens for violating curfew. UA's Tsaplienko reports the US is actively studying the experience of the Ukrainian army. Zelenskyy reiterates support for Trump's peace efforts on the condition that the path to peace is not determined without Ukraine. RBK-Ukraine reports on proposals from Prime Minister Shmyhal to increase leave and payments for military personnel released from captivity. Tsaplienko highlights the use of "Yahoza" (razor wire) and "Putanka" (tangled wire) nets as effective passive defense against FPV drones. UA General Staff reports approximately 990 RF personnel losses in the last 24 hours. Air Force of Ukraine reports 24 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed. RF attacked with 2 S-300/400 missiles and 45 drones, with 24 drones shot down. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports President Zelenskyy will meet UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London. ЦАПЛІЄНКО (06:20Z) provides a graphic stating "Britain refused the idea of introducing a 30,000-strong contingent into Ukraine — The Times." Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (09:06Z) confirms UA deep strike on Volgograd Oil Refinery. 🇺🇦 Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (10:10Z) reports 1.5 billion USD in PURL (Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List) funding has been secured, for procurement of US-made weapons. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (11:04Z) posts video of UA airborne fighting a Russian assault near Kursk, demonstrating cross-border offensive capabilities. The SBU released exclusive video of the 14 August prisoner exchange. NEW: Air Force of Ukraine reports all clear for ballistic missile threat. 🇺🇦 Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports approval of shelter construction on Khortytsia Island. Шеф Hayabusa requests donations for Mavic 4Pro for 77th DSHV Brigade. Воин DV reports Zelenskyy arrived in London. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Trump expects a dispute over borders and territories with Putin, and will apply sanctions if the meeting ends unsuccessfully. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny reports Ukrainian units holding positions and conducting counteroffensive actions in the southern sector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for defensive posture, diplomatic stance, and cross-border drone operations; MEDIUM for tactical challenges; HIGH for SIGINT and helicopter counter-drone tactics; HIGH for manpower/economic adjustments; HIGH for internal legal actions; HIGH for SSO capabilities; HIGH for de-oligarchization efforts; HIGH for civilian morale efforts; HIGH for infrastructure delivery; HIGH for interdiction; HIGH for agricultural efforts; HIGH for curfew proposal; HIGH for US studying UA; HIGH for Zelenskyy's stance on Trump; HIGH for POW support; HIGH for passive defense; HIGH for RF losses infliction; HIGH for AD performance; HIGH for Zelenskyy-Starmer meeting; HIGH for UK contingent refusal; HIGH for Volgograd strike claim; HIGH for PURL funding; HIGH for Kursk cross-border combat; HIGH for SBU exchange video; HIGH for all-clear; HIGH for Khortytsia shelter; HIGH for 77th DSHV Mavic 4Pro request; HIGH for Zelenskyy London arrival; HIGH for Tsaplienko Trump report; HIGH for Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny report).

• Russian Forces: Concentrating elite VDV units and deploying advanced EW systems (R-330ZH Zhitel) near Bakhmut/Chasiv Yar. Repositioning S-300 battalions for potential surface-to-surface roles. Intensifying artillery, including TOS-1A thermobaric systems. RF Defense Minister Belousov is meeting with military correspondents to discuss drone production, supplies, and social support. RF forces are actively engaging UA drones. RF source Zvezdets Mangust claims RF command has moved "a number of units and formations from the North" to the Southern and Southern part of Eastern operational zones. RF source Voenkor Kotenok video features RF soldiers requesting Mavic 3 and Mavic 3 Pro drones. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ provides a video showing field dental clinics. Два майора is still requesting charitable support for forces. TASS reports Northern Fleet has begun exercises involving 2,000 military personnel, up to 14 ships and submarines. Operatsiya Z reports detention of an "Orlan" reconnaissance UAV crew for the MoD. ASTRA reports RF police detained Russian cadets launching drones in Tatarstan. STERNENKO reports a "drone safety" alert for multiple RF oblasts. RF's Parliament speaker Volodin has arrived in Pyongyang, North Korea. НгП раZVедка provides an update indicating that ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine will continue regardless of US diplomatic initiatives. Colonelcassad shares a video depicting an alleged abduction of a man and a woman in Lutsk, claiming such incidents are common and aimed at forced conscription. MoD Russia shares a "Top News Today" image. Rybar's post with a caption "Blitzkrieg in the sector - to be?", implying significant RF offensive preparations. TASS reports a bill will be introduced for AI use in campaign materials. TASS reports Ukrainian soldier Alexey Levchenko stated he surrendered to Russian servicemen on the advice of his parents. TASS features Serbian sniper Dejan Berić, a "volunteer" in the Russian army. TASS indicates that captured Ukrainian soldier Alexey Levchenko claims his brigade consists of "disabled and mentally ill people." TASS indicates that a commander of an Airborne Reconnaissance Battalion (callsign Manul) stating that after "liberating Chasov Yar," fighting has moved into the adjacent forest, where Russian forces are destroying "pedestrian groups" and "UAV control points." The US delegation for the Alaska talks has been identified. Serhii Lysak of Dnipropetrovsk ODA (OVA) held a defense council meeting, processing requests from military, discussing mobilization progress, and defensive line construction. Kadyrov_95 posts video of Akhmat battalion operating in Vovchansk (Kharkiv direction), targeting UA personnel in residential areas. WarGonzo claims RF forces are taking control of the Dobropillya-Kramatorsk highway. NEW: RBK-Ukraine reports no documents planned after Putin-Trump summit. TASS confirms no documents planned after summit and that discussion of Ukrainian conflict will happen at subsequent stages. Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms no documents after summit. TASS reports Putin "wants a peace agreement" (Trump quote). TASS video shows a 100-year-old veteran expressing patriotic feelings. TASS Special Representative Dmitriev discusses expectations for meeting. Два майора video contrasts Zelenskyy and Putin. TASS reports Trump uncertainty about joint press conference. TASS reports Trump wants joint press conference. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Trump-Putin meeting will be "exchange of views on borders and territories." Alex Parker Returns reports Trump views Putin as tough opponent, doesn't expect immediate ceasefire. RBK-Ukraine reports Trump says summit will be "dispute over borders and lands." TASS reports Putin to visit Russian region en route to Alaska. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Trump will call Zelenskyy after talking with Putin. Военкор Котенок shares images of personal documents (passport, medical reports), seemingly a "cry for help" from a subscriber - no military significance. KMVA shows civilian road construction near Kyiv military hospital. Два майора requests support for "MAH". Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Trump "would impose sanctions" if things unresolved. Alex Parker Returns disinformation regarding Sec. Rubio and Zelenskyy on territory exchange. RBK-Ukraine reports Trump expects ceasefire "will happen" eventually. TASS reports Trump assesses 75% success chance for meeting. MoD Russia video shows 103rd Motor Rifle Regiment liberating Shcherbynivka in Donetsk. Дневник Десантника posts about additional leave for combat veterans. STERNENKO relays Trump's ambiguous statements about the summit. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ photo caption "Attempted attack on Tetkino" implies UA border activity. BUTUSOV PLUS video shows skeleton of RF soldier on destroyed armored vehicle. Два майора provides update from Belgorod governor on probable provocations on the border and enemy concentration on Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod directions with intent to occupy border villages for negotiation. TASS reports special flight Il-96 for RF-US summit arrived in Anchorage. TASS reports Russian Ministry of Justice added "Reporters Without Borders" to the list of undesirable organizations. Дневник Десантника reports RF forces struck Dobropolye with 6 KABs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for VDV concentration, EW deployment, S-300 repositioning, artillery intensification; HIGH for Belousov meeting; HIGH for counter-drone actions; MEDIUM for unit redeployments; HIGH for Mavic requests, field dental clinics, charity requests; HIGH for Northern Fleet exercises; MEDIUM for Orlan crew detention, Tatarstan cadets, HIGH for drone safety alerts; HIGH for NK delegation; HIGH for continued ballistic strikes intent; HIGH for Lutsk abduction claim IO; HIGH for MoD Top News IO; HIGH for Blitzkrieg IO; HIGH for AI in campaign materials; HIGH for Levchenko surrender IO; HIGH for Berić IO; HIGH for Manul Chasiv Yar claim; HIGH for Alaska delegation ID; HIGH for Dnipropetrovsk defense council; HIGH for Kadyrov_95 Vovchansk video; HIGH for WarGonzo Dobropillya highway claim; HIGH for no summit documents; HIGH for TASS Peskov quote; HIGH for Trump peace intent IO; HIGH for TASS veteran video IO; HIGH for TASS Dmitriev video IO; HIGH for Два майора IO video; HIGH for Trump presser intent; HIGH for Trump "borders and territories" quote; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns Trump quote; HIGH for Putin travel; HIGH for Trump-Zelenskyy call setup; LOW for military relevance of Kotenok documents; HIGH for civilian construction updates; HIGH for Два майора requests; HIGH for Trump sanctions intent; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns IO; HIGH for Trump ceasefire quote; HIGH for Trump success chance; HIGH for MoD Russia Shcherbynivka video; HIGH for Дневник Десантника leave info; HIGH for STERNENKO Trump summary; HIGH for ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ Tetkino report; HIGH for BUTUSOV PLUS video; HIGH for Два майора border provocation report; HIGH for TASS Anchorage flight; HIGH for TASS Reporters Without Borders report; HIGH for Дневник Десантника Dobropolye strike).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:

  • Offensive Ground Maneuver: HIGH. Concentration of VDV, use of small assault groups, and heavy fire support (TOS-1A, KABs) indicates capability for breakthrough operations, particularly around Chasiv Yar. Claimed redeployments from the North could further enhance this. The confirmed strike on Konstantinovka implies continued offensive fire support. TASS claims Ukrainian units disappearing in Sumy Oblast, indicating RF border-area offensive/suppression capability. The confirmed capture of Shcherbynivka and Iskra in DNR demonstrates effective ground maneuver. WarGonzo claims RF forces taking control of the Dobropillya-Kramatorsk highway, indicating aggressive ground maneuver intentions. Kadyrov_95 video of Akhmat battalion targeting UA personnel in residential areas in Vovchansk (Kharkiv direction) indicates continued urban/semi-urban offensive capability. MoD Russia video explicitly shows elements of the 103rd Motorised Rifle Regiment knocking enemy out of Shcherbynivka, confirming unit-level offensive success. NEW: Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny reports enemy shifting units with equipment and activating shelling, using drones, artillery, and aviation on several directions, reinforcing ground maneuver capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for general ground capability; HIGH for ATGM capability; HIGH for Kupyansk tactical gains; HIGH for RF claims on charts, MEDIUM for objective accuracy; HIGH for 14th Guards strikes; HIGH for IO intent of Blitzkrieg; HIGH for RF reporting of ISW, MEDIUM for actual territorial gains; HIGH for Chasiv Yar combat; HIGH for tank breaching; MEDIUM for Yanvarskoe infiltration; HIGH for general RF military presence from Z photos; HIGH for drone-assisted ground engagements; HIGH for TASS Krasny Perviy advance; HIGH for TASS/Alaudinov Krasnoarmeysk claim; HIGH for TASS Sredneye report; HIGH for WarGonzo summary; HIGH for Rybar video; HIGH for TASS Marochko report; HIGH for drone-assisted strikes; HIGH for RF MOD UAV shootdown claims; HIGH for TASS FSB missile claims and corroboration on Sapsan destruction; HIGH for TASS (06:16Z) Dobropolye report; HIGH for Colonelcassad (07:03Z) Katerinovka report; HIGH for MoD Russia (07:33Z) report; HIGH for Narodnaia Militsiia DNR (08:03Z) video; HIGH for Colonelcassad (08:17Z) report; HIGH for Воин DV (08:27Z) report; HIGH for MoD Russia (08:34Z) report; HIGH for «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» (08:41Z) report; HIGH for Liveuamap Source (08:19Z, 08:20Z) reports; HIGH for Colonelcassad (09:02Z) report; HIGH for Сливочный каприз (09:00Z) report; HIGH for TASS (09:31Z) report; HIGH for MoD Russia (09:33Z) report; HIGH for Военкор Котенок (09:33Z) report; HIGH for TASS (09:55Z) report; HIGH for MoD Russia (10:30Z) photo messages; HIGH for Kotsnews (10:54Z) report; HIGH for Поддубный (10:52Z) report; HIGH for Филолог в засаде (11:00Z) report; HIGH for ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (11:23Z) report; HIGH for MoD Russia (11:40Z) report; HIGH for MoD Russia (12:02Z) video; HIGH for Операция Z (12:22Z) report; HIGH for Colonelcassad (13:01:44Z) report; HIGH for Воин DV (13:00:00Z) report; HIGH for MoD Russia (13:06:14Z) report; HIGH for Kotsnews (13:19Z) report; HIGH for Colonelcassad (13:21Z) video; HIGH for Военкор Котенок (13:19Z) photos; HIGH for Военкор Котенок (13:24Z) photos; HIGH for TASS (13:39Z) report; HIGH for Kadyrov_95 (14:08:31Z) video; HIGH for WarGonzo (14:10:25Z) report; HIGH for MoD Russia (14:34:44Z) video; HIGH for Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny report).
  • Electronic Warfare (EW): CRITICAL. Confirmed deployment of a new, advanced EW system near Bakhmut, and confirmed R-330ZH Zhitel near Kupyansk, indicating significant investment. Claims of successful targeting of UA drone C2 elements suggest a functional capability. RF reports striking a 93rd Brigade UAV point. Colonelcassad claims Ukrainian special forces have once again lost their UAV control points in Dimitrov. TASS reports RF forces destroying UAV control points in the forest adjacent to Chasiv Yar. RF MOD reports 44 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over regions of the Russian Federation overnight. ТАСС (08:35Z) reports RF air defense shot down 7 UA UAVs over Belgorod Oblast and 1 over Kursk Oblast, indicating continued RF AD effectiveness. ТАСС (11:29Z) reports Russia developed a new reconnaissance drone detector "Mars." MoD Russia (13:06:14Z) video shows a remote ground system equipped with EW means. Поддубный (13:58:08Z) reports "Nad Belgorodom snova rabotaet PVO. Idet perekhvat dronov. Chislo atak VSU na Belgorodskuyu oblast za poslednie sutki vyroslo vdvoe." (Over Belgorod, air defense is working again. Drones are being intercepted. The number of AFU attacks on Belgorod Oblast has doubled in the last 24 hours). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for new EW, Zhitel, and functional capability; MEDIUM for Dimitrov strike; HIGH for Chasiv Yar UAV C2 destruction; HIGH for RF MOD UAV shootdown claims; HIGH for RF AD effectiveness; HIGH for new drone detector; HIGH for MoD EW system video; HIGH for Poddubny report on increased AD activity).
  • Deep Strike/Air Support (Surface-to-Surface & Air-to-Ground): SEVERE. Repositioning of S-300 battalions for ground strike roles significantly enhances capability to target UA C2 and logistics. RF Air Force is actively employing KABs over Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv. Kyiv is under ballistic missile threat from Bryansk/Kursk. The 72nd OMBr defeat footage suggests effective RF deep strike. TASS claims a missile strike on a UA mobile C2 point in Maryino, Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad's photo implies a recent missile strike on Chernihiv Oblast. The explosion in Sumy and warning for Sumy/Konotop districts regarding aviation weapons further confirms deep strike capability. RF FSB claims of destroying Ukrainian long-range missile production facilities, including "Sapsan" missiles, indicates significant successful RF deep strike capability targeting the UA military-industrial complex (MIC). ASTRA reports a child and a man were injured in a Russian missile strike in Sumy Oblast. RF attacked with 2 S-300/400 missiles and 45 drones, with 24 drones shot down. WarGonzo amplifies FSB/MOD Russia claims of destroying Sapsan missile production bases. ASTRA reports one person killed and one injured in Russian shelling of Kharkiv Oblast. KAB launches on Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts confirmed. Powerful explosion and apparent drone strike in Rostov-on-Don hitting a multi-story building, with 13 injured. UA drone attack on Druzhba oil pipeline in Bryansk Oblast confirmed. TASS reports RF struck HIMARS positions with an Iskander-M in Zhykhove, Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad video shows drone strike on T-80BVM tank near Kiyanitsa, Sumy Oblast. NEW: Дневник Десантника reports RF struck Dobropolye with 6 KABs, confirming continued air-to-ground strike capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for S-300, KABs, Kharkiv warning, 72nd OMBr, Maryino, Chernihiv, Sumy explosion, high-speed targets, ballistic threat, continued strikes; LOW for Burevestnik immediate tactical relevance, HIGH for strategic signaling; HIGH for continued strikes; LOW for laser weapon literal, HIGH for propaganda; HIGH for Su-34; HIGH for Krasnopol; HIGH for Volgograd NPP attack; HIGH for Belgorod civilian casualties; HIGH for Lancet strike on M-777 and Bogdana, MEDIUM for BDA; HIGH for Belgorod government building attack; HIGH for AFU Zaporizhzhia UAV warning; HIGH for RF MOD UAV shootdown claims; HIGH for TASS FSB missile claims, HIGH for corroboration from Colonelcassad, TASS, Дневник Десантника, Два майора, Операция Z, Kotsnews, MoD Russia, Поддубный, Рыбарь; HIGH for ASTRA Sumy civilian casualties; HIGH for Air Force of Ukraine (05:56Z) report; HIGH for Operatyvnyi ZSU (05:58Z) report; HIGH for RBK-Україна (05:58Z) report; HIGH for General Staff of AFU (05:59Z) report; HIGH for General Staff of AFU (06:07Z) report; HIGH for ASTRA (06:03Z) report; HIGH for TASS (06:08Z) report; HIGH for WarGonzo (06:16Z) Sapsan claims; HIGH for Kotsnews (06:16Z) videos; HIGH for Air Force of Ukraine (06:20Z) KAB report; HIGH for Два майора (06:26Z) video; HIGH for ASTRA (06:27Z) report; HIGH for TASS (06:30Z) Belgorod report; HIGH for Операция Z (06:30Z) Sapsan claim; HIGH for Colonelcassad (06:33Z) RF MOD confirmation; HIGH for Север.Реалии (06:35Z) report; HIGH for TASS (06:37Z) Miroshnik report; HIGH for Поддубный (06:39Z) Sapsan claim amplification; HIGH for Colonelcassad (06:45Z) HIMARS strike report; HIGH for Военкор Котенок (06:49Z) report; HIGH for Военкор Котенок (07:26Z) Rostov report; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns (07:29Z) Rostov report; HIGH for STERNENKO (07:29Z) Rostov reports; HIGH for ASTRA (07:30Z) Rostov reports; HIGH for Оперативний ЗСУ (07:38Z) Rostov reports; HIGH for Два майора (07:34Z) Rostov reports; HIGH for ЦАПЛІЄНКО (07:40Z) Rostov reports; HIGH for MoD Russia (07:33Z) report; HIGH for ASTRA (07:17Z) report; HIGH for TASS (07:47Z) Rostov report; HIGH for Dn. Desantnika (08:09Z) Bryansk report; HIGH for WarGonzo (08:07Z) videos; HIGH for Narodnaia Militsiia DNR (08:03Z) video; HIGH for TASS (07:59Z) Mayak-2 report; HIGH for Liveuamap Source (08:19Z) report; HIGH for Operatyvnyi ZSU (08:26Z) Bryansk BDA; HIGH for Дневник Десантника (08:37Z) Sapsan video; HIGH for Рыбарь (09:10Z) report; HIGH for Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (09:18Z) KAB report; HIGH for Colonelcassad (10:03Z) video; HIGH for Оперативний ЗСУ (10:23Z) video; HIGH for АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (11:01Z) report; HIGH for Air Force of Ukraine (11:21Z) report; HIGH for Повітряні Сили ЗС України (11:52Z) report; HIGH for Воин DV (12:07Z) report; HIGH for Повітряні Сили ЗС України (12:39Z) report; HIGH for Рыбарь (12:51:01Z) report; HIGH for TASS (13:16Z) report; HIGH for TASS (13:47:01Z) Iskander-M strike; HIGH for Colonelcassad (14:21:42Z) video; HIGH for Дневник Десантника (14:59:06Z) report).
  • UAV/Loitering Munitions: HIGH. Increased use of Lancet/Orlan-10 for precision strikes against high-value targets, and widespread FPV drone use. RF requests for specific Mavic models confirm ongoing reliance on tactical drones. MoD Russia video shows RF successfully targeting UA drones ('LELEKA-100', 'SHARK-M'). Lancet strike UAV reported in Lozove-Mezenivka area. Widespread drone safety alert in RF oblasts indicates persistent UA drone activity. Дневник Десантника's request for drones for 7th Airborne Assault Division suggests continued reliance on and demand for UAS. RF Air Force reports enemy UAV in southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast potentially acting as a spotter. Reconnaissance UAVs observed in Kyiv, Dnipropetropavsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. TASS reports Senior Sergeant Oleg Batyrev destroyed an approaching FPV drone. Colonelcassad reports training exercises on shooting down drones with shotguns/rifles. RF MOD reports 44 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over regions of the Russian Federation overnight. RF attacked with 45 drones, 24 of which were shot down. Поддубный (13:58:08Z) reports a doubling of UA drone attacks on Belgorod Oblast in the last 24 hours, with 32 drones aimed at Belgorod city. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast. NEW: Kotsnews video from under Pokrovsk shows drone footage indicating active reconnaissance and targeting capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for all; HIGH for AFU recon UAV activity in Dnipropetropavsk and Sumy; HIGH for AFU Zaporizhzhia UAV warning; HIGH for RF MOD UAV shootdown claims; HIGH for drone-assisted ground engagements; HIGH for RF AD effectiveness; HIGH for new drone detector; HIGH for MoD EW system video; HIGH for Poddubny's report on increased drone attacks; HIGH for Chernihiv recon UAVs; HIGH for Kotsnews video).
  • Information Warfare (IW): HIGH. Continued efforts to spread disinformation (e.g., Ukraine trying to "disrupt Alaska talks," "military coup" narratives, claims of UA refusing ceasefire). RF MoD actively engaging with military correspondents to control narrative and boost internal morale/recruitment. Alex Parker Returns continues direct smear campaigns against President Zelenskyy. RF sources (TASS, Colonelcassad, Opera Z) are pushing a narrative of "Russia winning" and Ukraine being in "hysterics" over amplified RF offensives prior to a potential summit. TASS claims Ukrainian units disappearing in Sumy Oblast is also an IW effort. Colonelcassad and Operatsiya Z continue to push the "West Bank model" for occupied territories. Дневник Десантника pushes the narrative of Poland continuing to expel "Bandera supporters". Tsaplienko (UA) indicates RF is attempting to project an image of imminent victory. Colonelcassad uses the "softening of mobilization is canceled" narrative to attack Zelenskyy's credibility. RF sources actively portray Trump as being against NATO as part of security guarantees for Ukraine. TASS expert states that limiting Telegram/WhatsApp calls strengthens "digital sovereignty" and reduces "fraud," which is an IW justification for tighter communication control. RF FSB claims of destroying Ukrainian long-range missile production facilities, including "Sapsan" missiles, is a significant IW success for RF. TASS (07:30Z) Moskalokova states "Kyiv continues to violate international humanitarian law by striking civilian population of the Russian Federation," commenting on UA attacks on Belgorod. Операция Z (07:30Z) reports "Over 650 thousand Ukrainians of conscription age fled the country," citing The Telegraph. TASS (09:52Z) reports that the success of the Russian Armed Forces has undermined the morale of Ukrainian servicemen. Поддубный (10:59Z) posts a video of Putin discussing upcoming negotiations on strategic offensive weapons control, which is an IO to project RF as a responsible nuclear power. ТАСС (11:01Z) reports Trump stating NATO should not be part of Ukraine's security guarantees. ТАСС (13:34Z) reports US National Intelligence Director confirmed fabrication of data on RF election interference. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (13:56:59Z) reports Putin is bringing "pseudo-historical documents" to Alaska to convince Trump that Ukraine is an "artificial state." NEW: RBK-Ukraine/TASS/Operatyvnyi ZSU reporting on no immediate outcome/documents from Putin-Trump summit, and that Ukrainian conflict discussion will be in "subsequent stages," suggests an RF-driven narrative to control expectations and downplay immediate outcomes. TASS video of 100-year-old veteran and Special Representative Dmitriev further bolster patriotic and diplomatic narratives. Два майора's video contrasting Zelenskyy and Putin is a direct IO attempt to undermine Zelenskyy and elevate Putin. Alex Parker Returns continues with disinformation regarding US officials and territory exchange. TASS reports Trump uncertainty about holding a joint press conference with Putin, while also stating Trump wants one, indicating mixed messaging and a degree of control over the narrative around the summit. TASS reports Russian Ministry of Justice added "Reporters Without Borders" to the list of undesirable organizations, an IO move to control information flow. Военкор Котенок's videos of returned prisoners from "Bandera captivity" are strong IO to boost domestic morale and demonize the enemy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for all IW efforts; MEDIUM for veracity of individual claims, HIGH for IO intent; HIGH for TASS Anchorage souvenir IO; HIGH for TASS Azarov "puppet" IO; HIGH for Дневник Десантника VDV photos; HIGH for TASS WhatsApp report; HIGH for Два майора military song; HIGH for TASS Leningrad ban; HIGH for Два майора Alaska video; HIGH for TASS Volodin/NK photo; HIGH for TASS Trump/Zelenskyy disruption claim; LOW for direct military relevance of TASS Zoomer video; HIGH for TASS FSB missile claims, HIGH for Kotsnews comment, HIGH for Colonelcassad video; HIGH for Два майора amplifying Rybar; HIGH for RF MOD UAV shootdown claims; HIGH for TASS FSB missile claims and corroboration on Sapsan destruction; HIGH for TASS (07:30Z) Moskalokova report; HIGH for Операция Z (07:30Z) conscription report; HIGH for Два майора (07:30Z) mercenary report; HIGH for Басурин о главном (07:31Z) US/Donbas report; HIGH for Colonelcassad (07:35Z) Lviv rally report; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns (07:36Z) "All bad" video; HIGH for Дневник Десантника (07:40Z) advance claim; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns (07:47Z) report; HIGH for Rybar (07:47Z) report; HIGH for Поддубный (08:00Z) report; HIGH for TASS (07:53Z) report; HIGH for Novosti Moskvy (07:54Z) report; HIGH for Kotsnews (07:56Z) reports; HIGH for TASS (07:59Z) report; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns (08:15Z) report; HIGH for ТАСС (08:19Z) Scott Ritter report; HIGH for Операция Z (08:40Z) WP report; HIGH for «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» (08:41Z) report; HIGH for ТАСС (08:23Z) Akunin report; HIGH for ТАСС (08:28Z) Putin-Trump photos; HIGH for STERNENKO (08:46Z) report; HIGH for Оперативний ЗСУ (08:48Z) video; HIGH for BUTUSOV PLUS (08:49Z) videos; HIGH for ТАСС (08:50Z) report; HIGH for ТАСС (08:56Z) report; HIGH for WarGonzo (08:57Z) report; HIGH for ASTRA (09:00Z) video; HIGH for ТАСС (09:03Z) report; HIGH for Военкор Котенок (09:02Z) report; HIGH for АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (09:02Z) video; HIGH for Народная милиция ДНР (09:04Z) report; HIGH for Рыбарь (09:10Z) report; HIGH for WarGonzo (09:10Z) video; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns (09:16Z) video; HIGH for TASS (09:17Z) report; HIGH for Операция Z (09:17Z) report; HIGH for РБК-Україна (09:20Z) report; HIGH for TASS (09:25Z) report; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns (09:26Z) report; HIGH for Poddubny (09:28Z) report; HIGH for TASS (09:33Z) report; HIGH for БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (09:34Z) video; HIGH for Kotsnews (09:35Z) report; HIGH for ТАСС (09:49Z) Scott Ritter report; HIGH for ТАСС (09:52Z) report; HIGH for ТАСС (10:09Z) report; HIGH for Операция Z (10:10Z) report; HIGH for TASS (10:19Z) report; HIGH for Janus Putkonen (10:22Z) video; HIGH for TASS (10:23Z) report; HIGH for TASS (10:27Z) report; HIGH for TASS (10:31Z) report; HIGH for ASTRA (10:32Z) videos; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns (10:33Z) photo messages; HIGH for Басурин о главном (10:45Z) report; HIGH for Поддубный (10:59Z) report; HIGH for Филолог в засаде (11:00Z) report; HIGH for ТАСС (11:01Z) report; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns (11:01Z) report; HIGH for АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (11:01Z) report; HIGH for Дневник Десантника (11:03Z) report; HIGH for ТАСС (11:03Z) report; HIGH for Два майора (11:04Z) report; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns (11:06Z) report; HIGH for ТАСС (11:07Z) report; HIGH for Операция Z (11:08Z) report; HIGH for РБК-Україна (11:10Z) report; HIGH for Zelenskiy / Official (11:11Z) report; LOW for military relevance of Janus Putkonen (11:18Z) photos; HIGH for Поддубный (11:29Z) report, HIGH for IO intent; HIGH for Офіс Генерального прокурора (11:30Z) report; HIGH for ТАСС (11:31Z) report; HIGH for Janus Putkonen (11:33Z) report, HIGH for IO intent; HIGH for Басурин о главном (11:48Z) report; HIGH for ASTRA (11:48Z) report; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns (11:49Z) report; HIGH for БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (11:57Z) report; HIGH for Стрелков Игорь Иванович (12:26Z) report; HIGH for TASS (12:28Z) report; HIGH for АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (12:32Z) video; HIGH for Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/ТИEDOTТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) (12:47:30Z) report; HIGH for Два майора (12:47:41Z) report; HIGH for Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (12:49:03Z) report; HIGH for Два майора (12:59:09Z) report; HIGH for Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/ТИEDOTТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) (12:59:46Z) report; HIGH for Старше Эдды (13:00:00Z) report; HIGH for ASTRA (13:01:11Z) report; HIGH for Рыбарь (12:51:01Z) report; HIGH for РБК-Україна (12:53:56Z) report; HIGH for Операция Z (12:54:51Z) report; HIGH for Глеб Никитин (13:10:10Z) report; HIGH for Операция Z (13:17Z) report; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns (13:17Z) photo; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns (13:17Z) photo; HIGH for MoD Russia (13:33Z) photo; HIGH for Новости Москвы (13:34Z) video; HIGH for TASS (13:34Z) report; HIGH for Операция Z (13:35Z) photo; HIGH for Дневник Десантника (13:36Z) photo; HIGH for Игорь Артамонов (13:38Z) report; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns (13:40Z) photo; HIGH for ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (13:56:59Z) photo; HIGH for РБК-Україна (14:13:26Z) report; HIGH for ТАСС (14:13:53Z) photo messages; HIGH for Оперативний ЗСУ (14:19:03Z) report; HIGH for ТАСС (14:18:03Z) report; HIGH for ТАСС (14:23:09Z) video messages; HIGH for ТАСС (14:24:15Z) video messages; HIGH for Два майора (14:25:13Z) video messages; HIGH for РБК-Україна (14:27:11Z) photo messages; HIGH for ТАСС (14:27:34Z) report; HIGH for ТАСС (14:27:52Z) report; HIGH for Оперативний ЗСУ (14:29:10Z) report; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns (14:29:51Z) report; HIGH for РБК-Україна (14:30:09Z) report; HIGH for ТАСС (14:30:40Z) report; HIGH for Оперативний ЗСУ (14:31:58Z) report; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns (14:33:52Z) photo messages; HIGH for РБК-Україна (14:34:20Z) report; HIGH for ТАСС (14:34:56Z) photo message; HIGH for Новости Москвы (14:34:58Z) photo messages; HIGH for STERNENKO (14:20:47Z) report; HIGH for РБК-Україна (14:45:30Z) report; HIGH for ТАСС (14:46:27Z) report; HIGH for ТАСС (14:46:28Z) report; HIGH for ТАСС (14:50:37Z) report; HIGH for Военкор Котенок (14:51:39Z) videos; HIGH for ТАСС (14:53:13Z) photo message; HIGH for ТАСС (14:53:14Z) report; HIGH for ASTRA (14:56:04Z) photo message; HIGH for ASTRA (14:56:05Z) report; HIGH for Новости Москвы (14:58:13Z) photo message).

• Intentions:

  • Seize Chasiv Yar & Kupyansk: Primary tactical objectives, aiming to bypass or envelop fortifications. The capture of Ivanivka and concentration on Kupyansk confirms this axis as a major offensive focus. The claim of a breakthrough at Pokrovsk, if true, indicates a broader intent to secure key axes in Donetsk. New reports of fighting moving into the forest adjacent to Chasiv Yar reinforces the intent to secure this area. TASS reports improved position and control of 6 km of road to Dvorechnaya, Kharkiv Oblast, directly supporting the intent to seize Kupyansk. The confirmed liberation of Shcherbynivka and Iskra in DNR demonstrates an intent to seize territory. WarGonzo claims RF forces are taking control of the Dobropillya-Kramatorsk highway, indicating aggressive ground maneuver intentions. MoD Russia video confirming liberation of Shcherbynivka by 103rd MRR reinforces this intent. NEW: Дневник Десантника reports RF struck Dobropolye with 6 KABs, which supports the intent to control the Dobropillya-Kramatorsk highway. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Chasiv Yar and Kupyansk as primary objectives; HIGH for Ivanivka capture and concentration; LOW for Pokrovsk breakthrough claim, HIGH for its use in IO; HIGH for Chasiv Yar adjacent forest fighting; HIGH for Dvorechnaya road control; HIGH for Shcherbynivka and Iskra liberation; HIGH for Dobropillya-Kramatorsk highway claim; HIGH for MoD Russia confirmation; HIGH for Dobropolye strike).
  • Degrade UA ISR & C2: Via new EW systems (R-330ZH Zhitel), cyberattacks, S-300 ground-strike capabilities, and direct counter-UAS operations. Actively using KABs to achieve air superiority and support ground attacks. New reports of RF destroying UA UAV control points near Chasiv Yar reinforce this intent. TASS (02:02Z) report of Lancet destroying UA artillery implies intent to attrit UA fire support. Air Force of Ukraine (03:37Z) reports activity of reconnaissance UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy Oblasts, warning they could be spotters for enemy fire, indicating continued RF ISR intent. Air Force of Ukraine (04:04Z) reports an enemy UAV in Zaporizhzhia district, warning it could be a spotter for enemy fire, indicating continued RF reconnaissance capabilities. RF MOD reports 44 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over regions of the Russian Federation overnight. RF FSB claims of destroying Ukrainian long-range missile production facilities, including "Sapsan" missiles, indicates significant successful RF deep strike capability targeting the UA military-industrial complex (MIC). Поддубный (10:52Z) reports a breakthrough under Dobropolye forced UA command to evacuate HQs from Slaviansk, indicating RF's perceived success and intent to disrupt UA C2. Colonelcassad video of drone strike on UA tank in Sumy Oblast reinforces RF ISR/strike capabilities. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for all; HIGH for S-300 and EW deployment; HIGH for KAB usage; HIGH for counter-UAS operations; HIGH for UAV control point destruction; HIGH for Lancet strike; HIGH for RF ISR intent; HIGH for RF MOD UAV shootdown claims; HIGH for TASS FSB missile claims and corroboration on Sapsan destruction; HIGH for Slaviansk HQ evacuation claim; HIGH for Sumy Oblast tank strike; HIGH for Chernihiv recon UAVs).
  • Undermine UA Morale and Civilian Support: Through ongoing shelling of civilian areas (Nikopolshchyna, Kharkiv, Belgorod), propaganda (e.g., claiming UA soldiers are "disabled and mentally ill," Azarov's statements on Zelenskyy's accountability), and targeting humanitarian/logistical infrastructure. The alleged abduction video in Lutsk directly aims to sow fear about conscription. The continued and increased drone attacks on Belgorod and Rostov-on-Don, while tactically significant, also contribute to RF's narrative of UA targeting civilians and aims to foster anti-UA sentiment internally. The TASS report on Trump refusing to invite Zelenskyy to Alaska aligns with this intent to isolate and demoralize UA. NEW: RF sources pushing narrative of no immediate outcome/documents from Putin-Trump summit, and that Ukraine will be discussed later, aiming to create uncertainty and demoralize UA. Trump's quote "I don't think we can get an immediate ceasefire" from STERNENKO indicates RF willingness to project continued conflict. Alex Parker Returns disinformation about US Sec. Rubio and territory exchange and Zelenskyy being a "military dictator" directly targets UA morale and leadership. The "cry for help" from Военкор Котенок's subscriber, containing personal documents, might be used as IO to show the humanitarian impact of the conflict on RF citizens, indirectly serving as a call for support. TASS report of Trump's uncertainty about a joint press conference, while still wanting one, creates an image of controlled, strategic engagement, intended to project competence and subtly undermine any notion of immediate US-UA alignment. Военкор Котенок's videos of returned Russian prisoners are a powerful propaganda tool to boost RF morale and demonstrate that RF cares for its soldiers, while implicitly demonizing UA as captors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for shelling civilians; HIGH for propaganda efforts, MEDIUM for their veracity; HIGH for abduction video IO; HIGH for drone attacks being leveraged in IO; HIGH for Trump/Zelenskyy IO; HIGH for post-summit narrative; HIGH for Trump ceasefire quote; HIGH for Alex Parker Returns disinformation; LOW for direct military relevance of Kotenok documents, MEDIUM for IO potential; HIGH for Trump press conference narrative; HIGH for Военкор Котенок prisoner videos IO).
  • Secure Border Areas: RF seeks to suppress UA cross-border activity in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, as evidenced by claimed "disappearances" of UA units and continued shelling of border areas. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ photo caption "Attempted attack on Tetkino" implies UA border activity, reinforcing RF defensive intentions in border regions. NEW: Два майора reports Belgorod governor indicating enemy concentration on Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod directions, with the intent to enter and occupy border villages for future negotiations, directly confirming this intention and its strategic goal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH; HIGH for Tetkino; HIGH for Два майора border report).
  • Disrupt UA Logistics and Sustainment: By targeting ammunition depots (Kherson, Zaporizhzhia), and through interdiction efforts via artillery and UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Consolidate Control over Occupied Territories: RF continues efforts to integrate occupied areas, as shown by ceremonial awarding of passports in Nikolayevsk-on-Amur. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Project Global Influence and Diplomatic Strength: Via high-profile meetings (Putin-Trump in Alaska, Volodin in Pyongyang) and controlled media narratives emphasizing RF's role in a "new world order." The TASS video of Special Representative Dmitriev and photo message on Trump's confidence in meeting success directly support this intention. NEW: TASS reports special flight Il-96 for RF-US summit arrived in Anchorage, further signaling RF's intent to project diplomatic influence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH; HIGH for TASS Dmitriev video and Trump success IO; HIGH for Anchorage flight).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Increased Depth of Strike Operations by UA: The confirmed successful drone strikes on the Volgograd Oil Refinery and Rostov-on-Don (hitting a multi-story residential building, resulting in casualties) represent a significant tactical adaptation by UA, demonstrating an extended reach and increased capability to target strategic RF infrastructure and deep rear areas. The claimed strike on HIMARS positions in Sumy Oblast by RF Iskander-M suggests RF is also adapting its deep strike to target UA's high-value precision assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Doubled Drone Attacks on Belgorod: Poddubny's report of a doubling of UA drone attacks on Belgorod Oblast in the last 24 hours, with 32 drones aimed at Belgorod city, indicates a significant increase in the scale and intensity of UA deep strikes. NEW: ASTRA reports police lieutenant colonel and senior criminal investigator injured in strike on district court building in Belgorod, indicating continued high-value targeting of RF administrative structures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH; HIGH for Belgorod court strike).
• RF Emphasis on "Fire Bags" and Encirclement: Marochko's statement regarding closing a "fire bag" in Kremensky forests indicates a specific tactical objective of encirclement, a shift from broad frontal assaults in that area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Focus on Tactical Breakthroughs in Populated Areas: Confirmed liberation of Shcherbynivka and Iskra, and claims of breakthrough in Lyman and Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk directions, indicate RF is achieving localized tactical successes in densely contested areas. The Kadyrov_95 video showing Akhmat battalion operating in Vovchansk's private sector suggests an adaptation to combat within urban/semi-urban residential zones. MoD Russia video explicitly shows elements of the 103rd Motorised Rifle Regiment knocking enemy out of Shcherbynivka, confirming unit-level offensive success. NEW: Kotsnews video shows drone footage of military vehicles and engagements under Pokrovsk, implying continued RF tactical focus and activity in populated areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH; HIGH for MoD Russia confirmation; HIGH for Kotsnews video).
• UA Adaptation of Passive Drone Defense: The reported use of "Yahoza" (razor wire) and "Putanka" (tangled wire) nets to catch FPV drones demonstrates a low-tech, but effective, tactical adaptation by UA to counter the widespread FPV threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Training for Tactical Counter-UAS: Colonelcassad's report on training exercises for shooting down drones with shotguns/rifles indicates RF's tactical adaptation to the ubiquitous FPV drone threat, decentralizing counter-UAS to the individual soldier level. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• UA Command Changes: Dismissal of 47th OMBr battalion commander suggests internal Ukrainian military adjustments to address operational performance or leadership issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Russian Forces:

  • Ammunition & Fuel: Continued heavy preparatory fire on the Kupyansk axis and widespread KAB launches imply sufficient stockpiles of conventional munitions. Logistics buildup in rear areas supporting the Kupyansk grouping continues. The increased intensity of drone attacks on Belgorod and Rostov-on-Don indicates UA is actively targeting RF logistical lines and depots. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for sufficient current supply for operations; HIGH for UA targeting RF logistics).
  • Personnel: Claims of RF redeployments from the North, combined with calls for donations of specific drone models, suggest a persistent need for personnel and specialized equipment to sustain offensive operations. The prisoner exchange suggests a continuous drain and replenishment cycle. BUTUSOV PLUS video shows skeleton of RF soldier on destroyed armored vehicle with no evacuation, implying issues with RF casualty recovery and potentially morale. NEW: Военкор Котенок's videos of returned prisoners highlight the human resource churn and the importance of exchanges for RF personnel management. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM; MEDIUM for BDA from BUTUSOV PLUS; HIGH for Военкор Котенок videos on personnel).
  • UAS Supply: RF requests for Mavic 3 and Mavic 3 Pro drones from military correspondents (Voenkor Kotenok) indicate a continued, high demand for tactical UAS, suggesting a possible gap in domestic supply or a preference for commercial models. RF MoD meeting on drone production and supplies (Belousov) confirms a strategic focus on improving this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Medical Support: Establishment of field dental clinics suggests ongoing efforts to maintain troop health and readiness. Военкор Котенок's messages seeking help via personal medical documents (likely from subscribers/soldiers) could indicate individual-level medical challenges, though not a systemic issue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for field clinics; LOW for military relevance of Kotenok documents, MEDIUM for anecdotal indication of individual needs).

• Ukrainian Forces:

  • Personnel: UA source STERNENKO reports a critical "lack of infantry" ("піхоти нема") in the Pokrovsk direction, implying potential personnel shortages or issues with force deployment/morale in specific sectors. Mobilization adjustments (deferment changes) indicate ongoing efforts to address manpower needs. The prisoner exchange and subsequent need for medical assistance highlight the human cost and rehabilitation requirements. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for infantry shortage; HIGH for manpower adjustments; HIGH for POW support needs).
  • UAS Supply: STERNENKO reports a significant UA requirement for 1,457 drones in the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka direction, indicating intense FPV drone usage and critical supply needs. DeepState reports the 108th Assault Battalion "Wolves of Da Vinci" received FPV drones on fiber optics, funded by subscribers, highlighting continued reliance on crowdfunding for critical equipment. STERNENKO (13:00:06Z) reports on the launch of a rapid drone procurement system, indicating UA's focus on increasing UAS supply. NEW: Шеф Hayabusa requests Mavic 4Pro for 77th DSHV Brigade, reinforcing ongoing and specific drone needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH; HIGH for 77th DSHV drone request).
  • International Aid: Reports of 1.5 billion USD in PURL funding secured for US-made weapons (Zaporizhzhia OVA) indicate continued, significant international defense support. Poland's $3.8 billion F-16 modernization deal with the US is a long-term logistical and defense gain for UA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Power Grid: Residents of Donetsk Oblast are urged to conserve electricity, indicating localized power grid vulnerabilities or conservation efforts due to conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• Russian Forces:

  • Centralized Control: MoD announcements of liberation and coordinated deep strikes (Sapsan missile production) suggest a centralized C2 structure capable of planning and executing complex operations. Putin's meeting to prepare for the Alaska summit also indicates a highly centralized command with political oversight. NEW: Peskov's statements on the Putin-Trump summit, including the lack of immediate documents and the intent to discuss Ukraine in "subsequent stages," demonstrate a controlled and centralized C2 over information and diplomatic narratives. TASS reports special flight Il-96 for RF-US summit arrived in Anchorage, demonstrating centralized logistical and diplomatic control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH; HIGH for diplomatic information control; HIGH for Anchorage flight).
  • Adaptation to Drone Warfare: RF military correspondents' requests for specific drone models and training on counter-UAS with small arms indicates a top-down awareness of battlefield needs and efforts to adapt tactics and equip units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Information Control: The meeting between Defense Minister Belousov and military correspondents indicates an active effort to control narratives and ensure messaging aligns with strategic objectives, showing effective C2 over the information domain. NEW: TASS Special Representative Dmitriev's interview reinforces the centralized effort to control the narrative around high-level diplomatic engagements. TASS reports Russian Ministry of Justice added "Reporters Without Borders" to the list of undesirable organizations, demonstrating centralized control over the information space. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH; HIGH for Dmitriev interview; HIGH for Reporters Without Borders report).
  • Targeting Effectiveness: Claims of successful strikes against UA C2 nodes and drone control points (Chasiv Yar, Dimitrov) suggest effective ISR and targeting integration within RF C2. Colonelcassad video of drone strike on UA tank in Sumy Oblast demonstrates effective RF ISR and targeting. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM; HIGH for Sumy Oblast tank strike).

• Ukrainian Forces:

  • Decentralized Adaptation: UA forces demonstrate a degree of decentralized adaptation, with local units identifying infantry shortages and relying on crowd-funded drone acquisition. This indicates a flexible, though potentially under-resourced, C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Internal Security and Anti-Corruption: Continued legal actions against collaborators and officials indicate a functioning, albeit challenged, rule of law and internal security apparatus, essential for maintaining C2 integrity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Manpower Management: Cabinet of Ministers proposals on mobilization deferments and booking rules show a responsive C2 attempting to manage human resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Information Sharing: Public acknowledgements of challenges (infantry shortages, drone needs) demonstrate a relatively transparent C2 for external partners and internal public, which can foster trust and support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Responsiveness to Incidents: Rapid air raid alerts and subsequent lifting for Kyiv and other regions demonstrate a functional air defense C2 network. NEW: KMVA reporting of air raid all-clear and Air Force of Ukraine's all-clear for ballistic missile threat underscore effective and responsive air defense C2. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny spokesperson providing an update on Southern defenses demonstrates effective and transparent communication from military leadership. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH; HIGH for all-clear reports; HIGH for Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny report).
  • Command Adjustments: Dismissal of the 47th OMBr battalion commander shows a willingness to make command adjustments to improve battlefield performance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Defensive Posture: UA forces are primarily engaged in defensive operations, particularly in Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk), facing intense RF pressure. The General Staff of AFU reports 56 offensive actions by the aggressor were stopped, indicating effective defensive capabilities. NEW: Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny reports UA units holding positions and conducting counteroffensive actions in the southern sector, confirming a resilient defensive posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH; HIGH for Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny report).
• Readiness:
  • Personnel: Facing challenges, with a reported "lack of infantry" in the Pokrovsk direction. Efforts to boost morale include public engagement and recognition of returning POWs. Mobilization reforms are ongoing. The 47th OMBr battalion commander dismissal suggests issues that impact readiness. NEW: General Staff of AFU reports 276,300 RF personnel losses since year start, demonstrating UA's continued ability to inflict attrition, indirectly supporting UA force readiness via enemy degradation. Воин DV reports Zelenskyy arrived in London, likely for diplomatic engagement to secure continued support, indirectly supporting UA readiness. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM; HIGH for RF losses infliction; HIGH for Zelenskyy London visit).
  • Equipment: Continued reliance on international aid for high-tech equipment (PURL funding for US-made weapons) and crowdfunding for essential items like FPV drones indicates resource constraints. UA forces are actively employing FPV drones and maintaining counter-UAS capabilities. Training activities (tanks, night ops) suggest ongoing efforts to maintain combat readiness. NEW: General Staff of AFU reports 1432 tanks and 3087 armored fighting vehicles destroyed since year start, indicating successful UA counter-equipment operations. Шеф Hayabusa requests Mavic 4Pro for 77th DSHV Brigade, highlighting a specific, ongoing equipment need. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for reliance on aid/crowdfunding; HIGH for drone use and counter-UAS; HIGH for training; HIGH for RF equipment losses; HIGH for 77th DSHV drone request).
  • Adaptability: Demonstrating adaptability in countering RF drone threats (helicopter engagements, wire nets) and in conducting deep strike operations (Volgograd, Rostov-on-Don). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Cross-border Operations: UA airborne forces engaging Russian assaults near Kursk demonstrates continued cross-border offensive capabilities. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ photo caption "Attempted attack on Tetkino" indicates UA cross-border activity into Russia, even if denied, supporting the narrative of active UA incursions. NEW: Два майора reports Belgorod governor warning of probable provocations on the border and enemy concentration on Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod directions with intent to occupy border villages, directly confirming RF's perception of active UA cross-border capabilities and intentions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH; HIGH for Два майора border report).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:

  • Deep Strike Capability: Successful drone attacks on Volgograd Oil Refinery and Rostov-on-Don demonstrate an increased capability to strike deep into RF territory, targeting critical infrastructure and administrative centers. NEW: ASTRA reports police lieutenant colonel and senior criminal investigator injured in strike on district court building in Belgorod, demonstrating continued high-value targeting success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH; HIGH for Belgorod court strike).
  • Counter-UAS: Downing 24 out of 45 RF drones and successful engagement of "Shaheds" by helicopter pilots, alongside passive defense measures (Yahoza/Putanka nets), demonstrate effective counter-UAS capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Inflicting Attrition: General Staff reports approximately 990 RF personnel losses in the last 24 hours, and 276,300 total personnel losses along with 1432 tanks and 3087 AFVs since the year start, indicating continued success in inflicting attrition on RF forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Tactical Interdiction: Destruction of an RF ammunition depot in Kherson and floating craft/vehicles in the south. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Tank Maneuver: A "risky but successful sortie" by a Ukrainian tank near enemy positions on the Kupyansk axis demonstrates continued offensive capability. Colonelcassad video shows drone strike on T-80BVM tank near Kiyanitsa, Sumy Oblast, indicating successful UA drone-based anti-armor strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH; HIGH for Sumy Oblast tank strike).
  • POW Exchange: Successful prisoner exchange of 84 individuals demonstrates effective humanitarian and diplomatic coordination. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Infrastructure Protection: Approval of shelter construction on Khortytsia Island shows proactive measures to protect critical civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Southern Front Defense: NEW: Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny reports Ukrainian units holding positions and conducting counteroffensive actions in the southern sector despite intensified enemy shelling, drone, artillery, and aviation attacks, indicating a successful defensive stand. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

• Setbacks:

  • Territorial Losses: Confirmed liberation of Shcherbynivka and Iskra by RF forces in Donetsk Oblast. MoD Russia video explicitly confirms Shcherbynivka liberation by 103rd Motorised Rifle Regiment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH; HIGH for MoD Russia confirmation).
  • Breakthroughs (RF Claimed): Reports of Russian forces breaking through Ukrainian defense lines in the Lyman district and a "big breakthrough" on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction are significant, but require further independent verification of their scale and sustainability. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Personnel Shortages: Reported "lack of infantry" in Pokrovsk indicates a significant local setback. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Artillery Loss (RF Claimed): TASS reports a Lancet strike destroyed an American M-777 howitzer and a Ukrainian Bogdana self-propelled artillery unit. Воин DV claims destruction of an M109 Paladin in Zaporizhzhia by RF artillery. These are significant losses if confirmed. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for BDA).
  • RECON Group Elimination (RF Claimed): Дневник Десантника reports a GUR reconnaissance group was eliminated by RF forces in the Kharkiv direction. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Critical Need for Drones: STERNENKO reports a critical need for 1,457 drones in the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka direction, indicating a severe, ongoing shortage and high consumption rate. The rapid drone procurement system is a positive step. NEW: Шеф Hayabusa requests Mavic 4Pro for 77th DSHV Brigade, specifying a high-demand, high-value drone type. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH; HIGH for 77th DSHV Mavic 4Pro request).
• Manpower: Continued adjustments to mobilization and reports of infantry shortages highlight ongoing constraints. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Air Defense: While successful in downing many drones, the inability to intercept S-300/400 missiles indicates a persistent gap against ballistic threats. The ongoing KAB launches suggest challenges in denying RF air superiority. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Artillery Replenishment: Continued reported losses of artillery systems necessitate ongoing replenishment from partners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Electricity Conservation: Urging residents of Donetsk Oblast to conserve electricity implies constraints on the power grid due to conflict impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• Russian Propaganda (HIGH):

  • Victory Narrative: RF sources (TASS, Colonelcassad, Opera Z) consistently push a narrative of "Russia winning," amplifying territorial gains, high UA losses, and successful deep strikes (Sapsan missile production destruction) to project strength and demoralize UA. NEW: MoD Russia video confirming Shcherbynivka liberation is part of this narrative. TASS amplifying Trump's belief that Putin "wants a peace agreement" is used to portray RF as reasonable and willing to negotiate, shifting blame for continued conflict. TASS reports special flight Il-96 for RF-US summit arrived in Anchorage, signalling a successful diplomatic initiative. Rybar's post of a graphic illustrating statements by Ukrainian officials implies RF is tracking UA internal discourse for IO purposes. TASS Top News image further reinforces this narrative.
  • Legitimacy Undermining: Active efforts to delegitimize UA leadership (Azarov's statements on Zelenskyy's accountability), portray Ukraine as an "artificial state" (Putin's "pseudo-historical documents"), and discredit UA forces (captured soldier claiming UA brigade consists of "disabled and mentally ill people"). NEW: Alex Parker Returns continues this theme by falsely attributing territory exchange proposals to Zelenskyy and labeling him a "military dictator," and attempting to undermine Ukrainian culture/cinema by attacking Elena Drapenko. Два майора's video contrasting Zelenskyy and Putin implies a superiority of Russian leadership. TASS reports Russian Ministry of Justice added "Reporters Without Borders" to the list of undesirable organizations, an act of censorship framed as maintaining internal order and controlling information.
  • Western Disunity/Weakness: Highlighting statements from Trump suggesting NATO should not provide security guarantees to Ukraine, and claims that Europe cannot sustain the conflict without US resources, to sow discord within Western alliances. The narrative of Europe being "defeated by Russian army" if directly involved is also pushed. NEW: RBK-Ukraine/TASS/Operatyvnyi ZSU reporting that no documents are expected from the Putin-Trump summit, and that Ukraine will be discussed at "subsequent stages," aims to create an impression of Ukraine's irrelevance to high-level negotiations, fostering isolation. Trump's perceived hesitancy on a joint press conference, while still desiring one, contributes to an ambiguous Western stance. TASS circulating Trump's quote about potential sanctions if the meeting with Putin is unsuccessful positions RF as the aggrieved party should discussions fail.
  • Blame Shifting: Attributing civilian casualties from UA deep strikes in RF territory to UA "terrorism" and claiming RF EW caused a drone to fall into residential buildings in Rostov to deflect blame. NEW: ASTRA reports police lieutenant colonel and senior criminal investigator injured in strike on district court building in Belgorod, an incident that will be heavily leveraged by RF to portray UA as targeting civilian infrastructure and personnel.
  • Domestic Morale: Use of patriotic images ("Russia — country of heroes!"), reports on veteran celebrations, domestic social policies, and showcasing technological advancements (drone centers, "Mayak-2" truck) to bolster internal support. NEW: TASS video featuring a 100-year-old veteran and Special Representative Dmitriev's discussion of the Alaska summit are aimed at boosting domestic morale and projecting diplomatic strength. Дневник Десантника's post about additional leave for combat veterans serves to bolster military morale. Военкор Котенок's videos of Russian soldiers returning from "Bandera captivity" are powerful IO to boost domestic morale and demonstrate care for soldiers.
  • Recruitment/Demoralization: Reports of UA soldiers surrendering on parents' advice, and videos of alleged abductions for forced conscription, aimed at discouraging UA service.
  • Censorship and Control: Blocking Telegram/WhatsApp calls and sentencing bloggers for "fake news" indicate a concerted effort to control information flow internally.

• Ukrainian Counter-Propaganda (HIGH):

  • Resilience and Morale: Emphasizing Ukrainian unity, highlighting successful military operations (Volgograd refinery strike), reporting on RF losses, celebrating prisoner exchanges, and using emotional appeals to foster national pride. NEW: General Staff of AFU video highlighting RF tank, AFV, and personnel losses since year start directly counters RF victory narratives and boosts UA morale. BUTUSOV PLUS video showing RF soldier's skeleton on destroyed vehicle emphasizes RF attrition and disarray. Operatyvnyi ZSU quoting Bloomberg on Russian economic challenges is a direct counter-narrative to RF economic stability claims.
  • Exposing RF Tactics: Revealing RF infiltration tactics (soldiers disguised as civilians in Pokrovsk) and highlighting RF's internal weaknesses (protests in Saratov, detention of Orlan crew).
  • Highlighting RF Atrocities: Drawing attention to civilian casualties from RF shelling (Kharkiv, Sumy) and alleged undignified treatment of bodies to underscore the human cost and rally international support.
  • Proactive Information Operations: The provocative video depicting a simulated assassination attempt on a Putin-like figure is a highly aggressive IO aimed at projecting defiance. Calling for Alaskan residents to display Ukrainian flags upon Putin's arrival.
  • International Support Reinforcement: Highlighting diplomatic meetings (Zelenskyy-Starmer, PURL funding) to counter narratives of Western abandonment. NEW: Воин DV reports Zelenskyy arrived in London, signifying continued high-level diplomatic support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting Trump's intention to apply sanctions if meeting with Putin is unsuccessful maintains focus on potential leverage against RF.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukrainian Public Sentiment:

  • Resilience and Resolve: Despite challenges (infantry shortages, power conservation), public participation in identifying saboteurs and continued support for military fundraising (drones) indicates strong resolve.
  • Humanitarian Concerns: Public focus on returning POWs and their medical needs, as well as civilian hardships like water shortages. NEW: KMVA's update on barrier-free routes for military hospital access underscores public and administrative focus on veteran care. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny spokesperson aims to maintain public confidence in military efforts in the south.
  • Information Exposure: Awareness of Russian propaganda efforts (e.g., "capitulation in Alaska" narrative).
  • Mixed Morale: Potential for localized morale issues due to infantry shortages and perceived risks of mobilization (Lutsk abduction claims). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

• Russian Public Sentiment:

  • Impact of Deep Strikes: Increased drone attacks on Belgorod and Rostov-on-Don (with civilian casualties and infrastructure damage) are likely causing significant public concern and fear, potentially eroding morale in border regions. Cancellation of mass events in Belgorod reflects this. NEW: ASTRA reports police lieutenant colonel and senior criminal investigator injured in strike on district court building in Belgorod, which will heighten public anxiety in border regions. Два майора's report on probable provocations on the border from Ukraine will likely further increase public anxiety.
  • Propaganda Consumption: Domestic audience is heavily exposed to state-controlled media narratives, likely shaping perceptions of RF military success and justification for the conflict.
  • Internal Stability: Protests in Serbia and reports of an explosion in Rostov, along with efforts to control communication channels, may reflect underlying anxieties or dissent, although the scale is not immediately clear for RF. Reports of protests in Saratov, Russia, and the crackdown on "fake news" indicates internal dissent that the regime is actively suppressing. NEW: The "cry for help" from Военкор Котенок's subscriber, containing personal medical documents, could be an indicator of individual-level distress among RF citizens/soldiers, highlighting underlying societal pressures. TASS reports Russian Ministry of Justice added "Reporters Without Borders" to the list of undesirable organizations, which signals a tightening of internal controls and suppression of independent information, implying a level of internal dissent or instability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH; MEDIUM for Kotenok's "cry for help" as a proxy for sentiment; HIGH for ASTRA Belgorod strike; HIGH for Два майора border report; HIGH for Reporters Without Borders report).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Support for Ukraine (HIGH):

  • Continued Military Aid: PURL funding for US-made weapons and Poland's F-16 modernization agreement reaffirm significant and ongoing Western military support. NEW: Шеф Hayabusa's request for Mavic 4Pro for 77th DSHV highlights continued Western equipment needs.
  • Diplomatic Engagement: President Zelenskyy's meeting with UK PM Starmer signals continued high-level diplomatic engagement and security guarantee discussions. Czech Foreign Minister's visit to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast also indicates continued support at regional levels. NEW: Воин DV reports Zelenskyy arrived in London. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Trump will call Zelenskyy after talking with Putin, suggesting continued US engagement with Ukraine. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Trump's intention to apply sanctions if the meeting with Putin is unsuccessful, providing a potential positive leverage point for UA.
  • US Position (Fluid): Trump's purported stance on not discussing territorial issues with Putin without Ukraine's involvement is a positive for UA, though his broader position on NATO and security guarantees remains a concern. NEW: Trump's statements about a "dispute over borders and territories" at the summit, and his ambiguous stance on immediate ceasefire and sanctions, indicate a complex and fluid diplomatic environment for Ukraine, though he maintains he will talk to Zelenskyy. TASS reports Trump's uncertainty about a joint press conference indicates the fluidity of US diplomatic engagement.
  • Limitations: Britain's refusal to introduce a 30,000-strong contingent indicates limitations on direct military intervention by Western partners.

• Support for Russia (HIGH):

  • North Korea Alignment: Parliament speaker Volodin's visit to Pyongyang and NK's intent to enshrine unwillingness to improve relations with South Korea in its constitution signals strengthening anti-Western alliances and potential military-technical cooperation.
  • Diplomatic Momentum (Perceived): The high-profile Putin-Trump summit in Alaska, even without a formal document, is being framed by RF as a significant diplomatic achievement, aimed at demonstrating RF's global standing and bypassing other actors. NEW: RBK-Україна/TASS/Operatyvnyi ZSU confirming no documents after the summit and that Ukraine will be discussed at "subsequent stages" allows RF to manage expectations while still portraying the summit as a diplomatic win. TASS photos of Trump's confidence in the meeting reinforce this. TASS reports Putin will visit a Russian region en route to Alaska, possibly to project a sense of national purpose and engagement before the summit. TASS reports special flight Il-96 for RF-US summit arrived in Anchorage, further symbolizing RF's perceived diplomatic success.
  • Serbia Unrest: Continued anti-government protests and clashes in Serbia could be leveraged by RF to highlight instability in a country with historical ties to Russia, potentially distracting Western attention.
  • Narrative of Western Division: RF efforts to amplify Western concerns about Trump's approach to Ukraine and allegations of US ignoring Ukraine's position at the summit. NEW: TASS reports Trump's uncertainty about a joint press conference, while also stating Trump wants one, which allows RF to control the narrative around the summit's public presentation, implying that a joint appearance is a significant concession.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• Continued Offensive Operations on Kupyansk Axis (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will continue to focus its main effort on the Kupyansk axis, aiming to capitalize on the capture of Ivanivka. This will involve combined arms assaults, heavy preparatory fires, and intense EW/UAS activity to degrade UA defenses. The objective is to encircle or break into Kupyansk. The Kadyrov_95 video indicates continued efforts in Vovchansk (Kharkiv direction), suggesting a broad offensive intent on this axis.
• Sustained Pressure in Donetsk Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will maintain high pressure around Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk. This will involve continued probing attacks, KAB launches, and drone-assisted ground assaults, aiming to fix UA forces and achieve localized territorial gains. The confirmed liberation of Shcherbynivka and Iskra indicate success and momentum in these areas. NEW: Kotsnews video from Pokrovsk and Дневник Десантника's report of KAB strikes on Dobropolye reinforce the expectation of continued high-intensity combat in Donetsk.
• Increased Deep Strikes on UA Military-Industrial Complex and Critical Infrastructure (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Following claims of successful strikes on "Sapsan" missile production facilities and confirmed strikes on the Volgograd Oil Refinery and Rostov-on-Don, RF will likely continue to target UA's military-industrial complex and critical infrastructure further into UA territory, aiming to degrade Ukraine's long-term combat capabilities and disrupt resupply. The claimed Iskander-M strike on HIMARS positions in Sumy Oblast reinforces this intent to target high-value UA assets in depth.
• Escalated Hybrid Warfare (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Russia will intensify its coordinated cyber and disinformation campaigns targeting UA C2, public morale, and international support. Expect increased false narratives, psychological operations, and attempts to sow discord between Ukraine and its Western partners, particularly in the lead-up to and during diplomatic events. The framing of the Putin-Trump summit as one where Ukraine's direct participation is not needed in the initial stages is a key part of this. NEW: TASS reports Russian Ministry of Justice added "Reporters Without Borders" to the list of undesirable organizations, which is a direct action in the information domain to control narrative and suppress dissent.
• Cross-Border Incursions for Negotiation Leverage (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): Based on the Belgorod governor's statements, RF will attempt limited cross-border incursions into Sumy, Bryansk, and Kursk Oblasts to seize border villages. These would be shallow operations primarily aimed at gaining tactical leverage for potential future negotiations with the US, rather than deep operational breakthroughs.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• Breakthrough on Kupyansk Axis (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): A successful, rapid RF breakthrough on the Kupyansk axis, potentially from the southwest (Ivanivka), could lead to the collapse of UA defenses and the seizure of Kupyansk, opening a significant operational avenue for RF toward Kharkiv or other strategic objectives. This would likely be enabled by overwhelming EW/cyber effects.
• Large-Scale Deception Operation (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): RF could employ a sophisticated deception operation to draw UA reserves to one sector (e.g., Lyman or Siversk) while executing a decisive breakthrough on another (e.g., Pokrovsk, or a new axis). This could leverage the current diplomatic focus to create confusion and exploit perceived UA vulnerabilities.
• Strategic Deep Strike Escalation (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): While the Volgograd and Rostov strikes are significant, an MDCOA could involve RF retaliating with an unprecedented wave of ballistic or cruise missile strikes across Ukraine, potentially targeting critical civilian infrastructure (e.g., major energy plants, water supply systems, large urban centers) with the intent of causing widespread societal disruption and forcing concessions. The HIMARS strike in Sumy Oblast could be a precursor to this.
• Direct Military Intervention by Allied Forces (LOW CONFIDENCE): While currently low, an MDCOA involves Russia using "volunteer" or "allied" forces (e.g., North Korean troops, as suggested by Budanov) in a direct combat role in Ukraine, significantly increasing manpower and potentially introducing new capabilities. This would represent a major escalation of the conflict.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Kupyansk Offensive: Immediate (next 24-48 hours). This is the critical window for UA to prepare for and mitigate the anticipated major ground assault. Defensive measures and force protection must be maximized.
• Deep Strike Operations: Ongoing and Escalating. Expect continued RF deep strikes on UA territory and UA deep strikes on RF territory. Decision points for UA involve assessing RF BDA and adapting defensive measures for critical infrastructure.
• Hybrid Warfare: Continuous. The IW and cyber campaigns are constant, requiring continuous monitoring and active counter-measures. Decision points for UA include proactive messaging and strengthening cyber defenses.
• Diplomatic Maneuvering (Putin-Trump Summit): Next 24-72 hours. The Putin-Trump summit in Alaska represents a key diplomatic decision point. UA must ensure its position is clearly articulated and understood by international partners to counter RF narratives and prevent any unfavorable outcomes. Trump's call to Zelenskyy after the summit is a critical engagement point.

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INTELLIGENCE GAPS

1. RF Offensive Order of Battle (ORBAT) and Reserves (Kupyansk Axis): The precise strength, composition, and disposition of VDV units and supporting elements designated for the Kupyansk offensive remain unclear. Detailed intelligence on their reserve echelons is required to accurately assess breakthrough potential.
   • Collection Requirement (CR): Enhanced IMINT (satellite, aerial reconnaissance) and HUMINT (POW interrogations, captured documents) on RF forces, specifically unit identifications, equipment types, and personnel strength in the Kupyansk sector. Prioritize SIGINT for RF C2 networks.
2. RF Cyber Campaign Specifics and Impact (Theater-Wide): The full technical vectors and vulnerabilities being exploited by the RF cyber campaign are not definitively identified. The extent of any existing or potential compromise of UA C2 systems requires urgent assessment.
   • Collection Requirement (CR): Immediate technical analysis of compromised systems, forensic examination of network traffic, and sharing of threat intelligence with international partners. HUMINT on RF cyber capabilities and intentions.
3. RF EW System Capabilities and Locations (Kupyansk and Donetsk): Precise geo-location and specific operational parameters of the R-330ZH Zhitel and other advanced EW systems are needed to develop effective electronic countermeasures.
   • Collection Requirement (CR): Dedicated ELINT/SIGINT collection on EW emissions, combined with IMINT for visual confirmation of deployment locations. Prioritize EW counter-targeting.
4. Verification of RF Territorial Claims (Pokrovsk, Lyman, Shcherbynivka, Iskra): Independent, ground-truth verification of the scale and permanency of claimed RF breakthroughs and territorial gains is critical for accurate situation assessment and future planning.
   • Collection Requirement (CR): Detailed IMINT (drone, satellite) and OSINT from local sources to corroborate RF claims of advanced positions and captured settlements. Ground reconnaissance where feasible.
5. UA Infantry Shortages and Mobilization Impact (Pokrovsk and other sectors): A more comprehensive assessment of the severity and localized nature of reported UA infantry shortages, and the effectiveness of ongoing mobilization efforts, is required to identify critical vulnerabilities.
   • Collection Requirement (CR): HUMINT (internal reports, unit assessments) and OSINT (social media, public statements) to gauge morale, recruitment progress, and personnel deployment issues.

ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Immediate Cyber Defense Posture (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Action: Conduct an immediate, comprehensive "hunt and clear" operation across all UA C2 networks for malware and vulnerabilities. Implement multi-factor authentication and strong password policies where not already in place.
   • Rationale: To mitigate ongoing RF cyber-attacks aimed at disrupting C2 during the anticipated Kupyansk offensive.
   • Responsible Unit(s): G6 (Communications), G2 (Cyber Intelligence), SBU.

2. Adaptive EW Countermeasures (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Action: Prioritize ELINT and SIGINT assets to pinpoint R-330ZH Zhitel and other EW systems. Develop and deploy targeted electronic attack capabilities. Disseminate updated TTPs for operating in GPS-denied and communications-degraded environments, emphasizing analog navigation and redundant comms (e.g., satellite, fiber optic, runners).
   • Rationale: To counter RF's critical EW capabilities that degrade UA ISR and C2, especially on the Kupyansk axis.
   • Responsible Unit(s): G7 (EW), G2 (EW Intelligence), frontline combat units.

3. Force Protection and Dispersal on Kupyansk Axis (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Action: Immediately review and enforce dispersal plans for artillery, MLRS, radar systems, command posts, and ammunition depots in and around the Kupyansk axis. Enhance camouflage, concealment, and deception (CCD) measures. Establish hardened alternate command posts and communication nodes.
   • Rationale: To minimize losses from RF preparatory fires, KABs, and Lancet drone strikes during the anticipated offensive.
   • Responsible Unit(s): All combat and support units on Kupyansk axis, G3 (Operations), G4 (Logistics).

4. Intensified ISR for RF Main Effort (CRITICAL PRIORITY):

   • Action: Reallocate and concentrate all available ISR assets (UAS, SIGINT, IMINT) on the Kupyansk axis to identify the precise H-hour, main lines of effort, and disposition of RF assault echelons, particularly VDV units. Prioritize real-time targeting data for RF assembly areas and logistics nodes.
   • Rationale: To provide early warning of the main assault and enable effective pre-emptive and reactive targeting.
   • Responsible Unit(s): G2 (Intelligence), G3 (Operations), Air Force (ISR assets), UAS units.

5. Reinforce Pokrovsk and Lyman Defense (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Action: Conduct a rapid assessment of infantry strength in the Pokrovsk sector and, if confirmed lacking, immediately reallocate available reserves or accelerate mobilization efforts for this area. Reinforce defense lines and counter-infiltration measures (e.g., FPV drone patrols, wire nets). Deploy additional resources to stabilize Lyman defenses following reported breakthrough.
   • Rationale: To prevent further RF breakthroughs and consolidation of territorial gains in key Donetsk axes.
   • Responsible Unit(s): G1 (Personnel), G3 (Operations), frontline combat units, regional military administrations.

6. Sustained Deep Strike Campaign (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Action: Continue and, where feasible, expand deep strike operations against RF military and critical infrastructure targets within RF territory (e.g., oil refineries, military production facilities, logistics hubs). Prioritize targets that directly impact RF's ability to conduct offensive operations and sustain its forces.
   • Rationale: To impose costs on Russia, disrupt their war economy and logistical lines, and maintain pressure on RF deep rear.
   • Responsible Unit(s): GUR, SBS, SBU, long-range strike units.

7. Proactive Information Operations (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Action: Develop and disseminate counter-narratives to RF propaganda, specifically addressing claims of UA military weakness, Western abandonment, and the legitimacy of the Ukrainian state. Highlight RF's confirmed losses and attritional tactics. Emphasize civilian resistance and international support. Proactively address any narratives emerging from the Putin-Trump summit that attempt to sideline or delegitimize Ukraine's direct involvement in peace discussions. Engage directly with international media to ensure Ukraine's perspective is heard.
   • Rationale: To bolster domestic morale, maintain international support, and counter RF's efforts to destabilize the information environment.
   • Responsible Unit(s): Strategic Communications, G2 (Information Warfare Analysis).