Archived operational intelligence briefing
TIME: 121941Z AUG 25
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
1.4. Previous Intelligence Summary (Chasiv Yar Axis): The previous INTSUM (0700Z 18-MAR-2024) focused on an imminent, large-scale RF assault on Chasiv Yar, with concentration of VDV units, new EW deployment, and S-300 repositioning for ground-strike roles. RF secured a foothold in eastern Ivanivske and conducted probing attacks on Chasiv Yar. RF used TOS-1A and increased drone overwatch, with increased reliance on small assault groups supported by FPV drone swarms. These elements are consistent with ongoing RF tactical adaptations and force concentrations observed on other axes, particularly the current large-scale concentration on the Pokrovsk axis. The identified new EW system and S-300 repositioning would have had a significant impact on UA operations in the Chasiv Yar sector if materialized as predicted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
1.5. Control Measures (Relevant to Current Situation):
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations
2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status
2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
Tactical/Operational:
Strategic/Information Warfare:
Counter RF "Terror Plot" Narrative: Swiftly and decisively issue a formal statement refuting RF claims of a Ukrainian-orchestrated terror plot in Moscow Oblast, the Oryol arson, the Kursk airport conviction, the Tambov arrest, and the Omsk sentencing. Highlight RF's history of false flag operations and disinformation, including the new Rybar video and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's claims of preventing terror attacks. Immediately and forcefully counter RF claims of Ukrainian "terrorist attacks" on the ZNPP. Directly address and refute RF claims of UA drone strikes on civilians (Horlivka, Starobilsk, Belgorod, Arzamas) with verifiable facts and adherence to ROE, and refute claims of UA targeting medics (Horlivka ambulance). CRITICAL: Immediately and robustly counter RF's pre-emptive claim of a "provocation" (strike on Kharkiv residential area) to foil US-Russia talks, exposing it as a false-flag setup for potential RF actions. Immediately and robustly counter RF claims of UA fabricating victories in Sumy Oblast. Immediately respond to and counter the RF information operation regarding the "war" censorship and the fine imposed for using the word "war" (ASTRA). Immediately and robustly counter RF claims regarding the SBU's alleged agent in the Air Force, providing verifiable facts and exposing any disinformation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Reinforce SBU counter-sabotage successes (e.g., "Diversionary Noise" plan).
Unified Refutation of Concession Claims & Donetsk Breakthroughs (CRITICAL): Issue clear, high-level, and frequent statements from the Office of the President, MFA, and MOD firmly refuting any claims of Ukraine's readiness to concede territory (e.g., The Telegraph report, Janus Putkonen's claim, Orbán's statements, Старше Эдды's demands for "gestures of goodwill," and the new, highly dangerous Colonelcassad claim regarding US Defense Secretary Hegseth's alleged confirmation of "territorial exchanges," and the alleged Putin-Trump deal from Corriere della Sera, and the British Times map propaganda). Crucially, immediately and forcefully counter the amplified RF narratives of major breakthroughs in Donetsk (e.g., 20km, 7km, 10-12km, and 15km advances, including new claims of Annovka, Predtechino, and Pokrovsk-Dimitrov encirclement), especially given the official refutation by OSV Trehubov and the General Staff. Provide verified counter-information and highlight that these are RF propaganda efforts to demoralize and misinform. Emphasize Ukraine's unwavering commitment to its territorial integrity. Use all available platforms, including direct video rebuttals from frontline commanders (as demonstrated by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). Counter the "Avdiivka 2.0" narrative proactively. Leverage internal RF skepticism (Старше Эдды) about their own claims to highlight their unreliable narratives. Directly address RF psychological operations portraying Zelenskyy's speeches as "preparing betrayal" (e.g., via Два майора). Directly counter RF disinformation twisting Zelenskyy's statements regarding the frontline. Counter Colonelcassad's post about Zelenskyy threatening a "third war" if not invited to talks. Proactively address the Alex Parker Returns' video urging Dobropillya evacuation, providing accurate information and reassurance to prevent panic.
Amplify RF Internal Vulnerabilities: Systematically highlight RF logistical shortcomings and the impact of Ukrainian deep strikes on their military-industrial complex (e.g., Starobilsk ammunition truck strike, repeated "Shahed" terminal attacks, SBU airfield strikes). Specifically leverage the public appeals from RF soldiers for basic equipment (drones, Starlink) to highlight internal military weaknesses and C2 failures. Also highlight RF domestic security issues (drone attacks and claimed terror plots), including security incidents that lead to flight restrictions and mobile internet shutdowns, and their impact on daily life (e.g., Sevastopol cash use). Leverage reports of widespread mobile internet shutdowns within Russia and mobile operator "support measures" in Crimea to highlight domestic impact and unpopularity of RF's security measures. Leverage destruction of RF military assets (Buk-M3, "Skala" radar, BTR-82s, tanks with mine trawls, SPG, MaxxPro, Kozak, equipment near Vyyimka, reconnaissance drones, claimed tank in Zaporizhzhia, 4th NGU Brigade strike, Mitsubishi L200 pickup, robotic platform, BM-21 Grad, RF tank by 81st Airmobile Brigade, RF TOS-1A by 3rd Assault Brigade) to counter narratives of RF air/ISR superiority. Highlight public health concerns within Russia. Systematically address reports of RF internal C2 issues ("lies from middle management upwards"). Publicize the confirmed casualty of Iosif Prigozhin's son-in-law as evidence of the human cost for RF, even for connected elites, and highlight the numerous military graves in Yaroslavl as a testament to RF casualties. Leverage RF proposed internal communication bans to highlight increasing authoritarianism. Counter RF military showcases (e.g., 1st Tank Army video, Fighterbomber video, T-72B3M/T-90M training videos) with verified BDA and actual battlefield realities. Leverage RF's reliance on civilian humanitarian aid for its military to highlight the state's logistical shortfalls. Leverage intelligence on Russia losing oil revenues (down almost 20%) to highlight economic vulnerability. Highlight RF's reliance on convicted personnel to sustain its forces, leveraging Colonelcassad's video showcasing a former convict. Expose RF's new GRU Telegram bot (@Russian_GRU_bot) as an intelligence gathering and propaganda tool. Systematically counter RF propaganda on "debt write-off for SVO contract," exposing it as a sign of desperate recruitment.
Leverage Diplomatic Engagements: Actively engage with international partners to counter RF narratives in diplomatic circles, particularly regarding any "peace" talks and the false narrative of territorial concessions. Highlight Hungary's position as a potential point of diplomatic pressure. Monitor and counter Russian efforts to destabilize Moldova. Continue to emphasize the significance of initiatives like the Czech artillery shell supply and cooperation on International Humanitarian Law. Publicly any shifts in geopolitical alignment against Russia (e.g., Serbia, Azerbaijan's non-participation in CIS meeting). Counter RF attempts to sow discord between Ukraine and its allies (e.g., exploiting Poland-Ukraine tensions, WarGonzo's US claims, Операция Z's Polish-Ukrainian claims, Alex Parker Returns' amplification of Polish expulsions, RF quoting "Strana" on DNR withdrawal, and the new RF claims about US-RF "territorial exchanges"). Leverage new sanctions imposed by countries like Switzerland. Counter RF attempts to use high-level diplomatic meetings (Trump-Zelensky call, US-Russia summit, Zelenskyy-Erdoğan call, Zelenskyy-Dan call, NATO online meeting) to imply international recognition of RF territorial claims or dictate peace terms, emphasizing Ukraine's central role in any decisions. Leverage calls with partners like Erdoğan, Dan, Schoof, and Qatar to highlight continued diplomatic engagement on Ukraine's terms. Proactively counter RF narratives regarding global economic stability and energy supplies (e.g., India oil imports). Address RF narratives about B-1B bomber deployments in Norway to ensure international cohesion. Publicly refute RF claims about Zelenskyy refusing POW exchanges, providing facts and context on UA's commitment to POW issues. Directly counter RF diplomatic narratives regarding Trump's potential role in peace talks, emphasizing Ukraine's sovereignty in any negotiations. Counter RF attempts to sow economic doubt about Ukraine (e.g., "record trade deficit"). Highlight the EU Ambassador's statement pushing for a more comprehensive peace than just a ceasefire at the Putin-Trump summit as a sign of strong international support for Ukraine's maximalist position. Counter RF propaganda on Moldova's "gas adventures" to prevent geopolitical destabilization. Highlight strengthening of RF-DPRK ties as a sign of RF's international isolation, rather than strength. Counter RF claims that Putin secured support from DPRK regarding Kursk. Emphasize that US-RF summit should not undermine UA's position. Proactively address the alleged "territorial concessions" signal from Whitkoff/Putin. Directly counter Trump's reported statements about not drawing "red lines" on Ukraine and calling for "dialogue on humanitarian issues," emphasizing that UA's sovereignty and territorial integrity are non-negotiable. Continue to leverage positive diplomatic engagements such as the conversation with the Emir of Qatar to show broad international support for Ukraine. Directly counter the RF narrative that "Britain urged EU leaders to shut up and not interfere with Putin's and Trump's negotiations," by emphasizing international unity and Ukraine's sovereign right to determine its future. Counter RF's claim that "Russia won this conflict: Orban admitted Ukraine's defeat," by highlighting continued resistance and international support for Ukraine. Counter RF's use of foreign commentators to shape narratives (e.g., Jean de Gliniasty).
Highlight Civilian Casualties and War Crimes: Continue to publicize the impact of Russian strikes on civilian areas and casualties to maintain international condemnation and support. Specifically highlight destruction of civilian infrastructure and alleged war crimes (e.g., АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА's video, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's Avdiivka video, Lysak's reports from Nikopolshchyna, Colonelcassad's Horlivka ambulance video, Arzamas death). Publicly condemn and seek accountability for the vandalism of memorial sites within Ukraine. Publicly document and prosecute war crimes against POWs, as demonstrated by the General Prosecutor's Office. Provide transparent information regarding the ZNPP incident, emphasizing the risks of conflict around nuclear facilities and refuting RF blame-shifting. Strongly condemn and refute the alleged drone strike on Belgorod civilians, providing independent information where possible, and emphasizing adherence to international humanitarian law. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Address Internal Collaborators: Continue SBU operations to identify and neutralize internal collaborators and their ideological influence, including exposing illegal land seizure schemes and corruption in Zhytomyr Oblast. Publicize successful SBU operations against alleged Russian agents, such as the Major in the Air Force, to demonstrate internal security and deter further collaboration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Promote Military-Industrial Cooperation: Highlight successful collaborations (e.g., with Czechia on weapons production and artillery shells) to demonstrate Ukraine's long-term military self-sufficiency goals and international support. Publicly address challenges with Rheinmetall factory construction to manage expectations and demonstrate transparency, while emphasizing commitment to overcoming them. Publicize GUR's intelligence on RF's "Shahed" production targets and missile situation to demonstrate transparency and strategic awareness.
Counter RF Youth Indoctrination: Proactively counter the narrative of Russian military-patriotic camps for children by highlighting that this is a form of state-sponsored child militarization and indoctrination, contrasting it with international norms.
Counter Religious Disinformation: Immediately and strongly refute RF claims of "religious mockery" by UA forces, providing verifiable facts and contextual information to demonstrate the false nature of such propaganda, particularly the "Kursk Oblast church" incident.
Discredit RF SIGINT Claims: Proactively counter RF propaganda claims of radio intercepts, highlighting their use for disinformation and psychological operations.
Leverage Historical RF Military Failures: Continue to use historical events (like the Kursk submarine sinking and the Moskva sinking) in information operations to highlight perceived patterns of Russian military incompetence and vulnerability.
Promote Social Welfare During Wartime: Publicize and highlight government efforts to provide social support, such as free hot meals for students in Dnipropetrovsk, to demonstrate national resilience and care for its citizens. Promote new scholarship programs for students. Publicize active youth participation and awards in Zaporizhzhia to reinforce national resilience and normalcy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Counter RF Conspiracy Theories: Directly and rapidly refute complex conspiracy theories, such as the Colonelcassad video alleging child trafficking and organ harvesting in Ukraine, by providing factual, verifiable information and exposing their origins as disinformation.
Reinforce National Unity: Highlight public fundraising efforts for military (e.g., "Rusoriz") to demonstrate national unity and support.
Collection Requirements:
