Nightwatch

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 110600Z AUG 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

Donetsk Oblast: RF continues ground combat operations targeting UA personnel and mechanized assets. UA General Staff reports ongoing clashes near Zvirove, Volodymyrivka, Rodynske, Poltavka, Boykivka, Myrolubivka, Novoekonomichne, Pokrovsk, Chervonyy Lyman, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novoukrayinka, Zelenyy Kut, towards Kozatske, Dorozhne, and Novopavlivka (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF milblogger "Операция Z" claims RF forces have taken Sukhetskoe and Poltavka, are clearing Rusyn Yar, and RF DRGs are near Dobropillya, indicating localized advances (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). New map from Colonelcassad shows military movements and control in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, suggesting active front (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for map, MEDIUM for specific gains without corroboration). RF source Воин DV claims "FABing of the enemy in Iskra," indicating continued aerial bombardment (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts FPV drone video claiming to show RF soldiers scattering and a successful strike on a vehicle, indicating continued UA drone effectiveness against RF personnel and transport (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for UA claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). UA General Staff refutes RF claims of occupation of Dachne, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming UA control (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a direct counter to RF information operations regarding territorial gains. Operatsiya Z (Voenkorы Русской Весны) further posts a video claiming "masterful work" by RF drone operators in the Pokrovsk direction (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts FPV drone video from 1st battalion, 92nd OSShBR showing RF personnel attempting to exit a UAZ-452 ("Bukhanka") when struck by an FPV drone, resulting in casualties (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for UA claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). This further corroborates UA FPV drone effectiveness. A new photo from Сливочный каприз dated 10.08.25 shows the Krasnoarmeysk - Orekhovo area, indicating continued RF focus on this axis (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts video of a "Geranium" (Shahed) kamikaze UAV strike against alleged UA positions in Zolotyy Kolodez north of Krasnoarmeysk, showing an explosion (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). This indicates RF is using long-range loitering munitions against UA rear positions. Colonelcassad claims RF forces have advanced and liberated Novo Shakhove, with ongoing battles for Ivanivka, Pankivka, Vilne, and Kucheriv Yar. He also claims RF forces occupied positions in the southern part of Zolotyy Kolodez, pending verification (CONFIDENCE: LOW for specific gains, HIGH for RF claims). Colonelcassad posts a video capturing an aerial perspective of what appears to be a residential area undergoing shelling, with text overlays including "ПВД 93 ОМБР ВСУ" (likely referring to the 93rd Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine), suggesting strikes against UA positions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). TASS reports RF paratroopers destroyed a UA HMMWV near Podolskoye, Donetsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). DeepState reports drone footage from 101 OBRO GSh showing engagement with enemy personnel east of Rusyn Yar (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports that 2nd motorized infantry battalion of the 93rd Brigade "Kholodny Yar" is inflicting heavy losses on the enemy in Bakhmut and Pokrovsk directions, appealing for drone donations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian Sergeant Yuri Kusov was captured in Donetsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new groups of RF strike UAVs inbound towards Donetsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 x UAVs flying towards Добропілля, with a follow-up confirmation of all 6 being shot down (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for drone activity, HIGH for UA interdiction). НгП раZVедка posts a photo message claiming that RF has "not forgotten how [Ukrainians] showered Donetsk with anti-personnel mines and rejoiced." This is an RF information operation aimed at justifying current RF actions by recalling past UA actions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs are en route to Novomykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Воин DV posts FPV drone footage showing destruction of enemy personnel near Aleksandrogad, Donetsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA).
- Krasnyy Lyman Direction: Colonelcassad posts new video (010204Z AUG 25) claiming drone operators of the 144th Division destroyed three enemy vehicles with infantry on board on the Krasnyy Lyman direction. Video shows thermal and optical tracking of vehicles and an explosion (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video/RF claim, MEDIUM for BDA). This indicates continued RF drone effectiveness and focus on attriting UA personnel and transport. TASS reports RF forces have dislodged UA forces from positions in administrative buildings of the Krasnolimanskaya mine, Donetsk (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
- Toretsk Direction: UA General Staff reports clashes near Toretsk, Scherbynivka, Katerynivka, Stepanivka, Rusyn Yar, and Pleschiyivka (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Z комитет + карта СВО posted a tactical map focusing on Katerynivka in the Toretskoye direction (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for map, MEDIUM for specific details). Colonelcassad posts a photo message claiming RF forces advanced near Katerynivka and Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
- Yablonovka (DPR): TASS, Colonelcassad, Операция Z, and Kotsnews all claim RF forces liberated Yablonovka (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
- Konstantinovka Direction: RF milbloggers continue to report on the Konstantinovka direction, indicating sustained RF focus. RF sources claim successful FAB-3000 strikes on UA territorial defense brigade positions and a bridge, providing aerial video evidence (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for strikes, MEDIUM for BDA). Colonelcassad posts video of a "precise aviation strike" destroying a bridge in Konstantinovka, allegedly with a FAB-3000, confirming the use of heavy glide bombs (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). Филолог в засаде posts an appeal for sapper equipment for an officer from the Konstantinovka direction, indicating ongoing combat and a need for specialized engineering support in this area (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo of a military map with the caption "Константиновской направление," reinforcing the RF focus on this axis and possibly indicating ongoing planning or operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). New intelligence indicates UA FPV drone units (GW BAS Phoenix) are actively targeting RF logistics in the Konstantinovka direction, showing video of a strike on a moving vehicle (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). Pushilin reports RF forces advancing in Poltavka and Rusin Yar directions in Konstantinovka, despite difficult fighting (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim, MEDIUM for verified gains). TASS reports RF forces destroyed a UA UAV control point near Verolyubovka (Konstantinovka direction) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Video evidence shows aerial footage of a reconnaissance and engagement sequence near Verolyubovka, showing an EW station identified and targeted, followed by an explosion (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Kramatorsk/Sloviansk Direction: Previous reports of 7 RF strike UAVs targeting Kramatorsk and Sloviansk are confirmed shot down. UA General Staff reports clashes near Chasiv Yar and Bila Hora (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts a video of Pushilin claiming water will appear in Donetsk only after Sloviansk is captured. This implies RF intent to seize Sloviansk to address water supply issues in Donetsk, indicating a continued strategic objective (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim, MEDIUM for the viability of this claim). A video by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС corroborates Pushilin's statement, specifically mentioning the "Seversky Donets" canal as the key to water supply, which underscores the strategic importance of Sloviansk (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Shandrigholovo Area: TASS (Andrey Marochko) reports RF forces initiated combat operations and advanced near Shandrigholovo (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/intent, LOW for independent verification of gains). Сливочный каприз posts a photo of the area around Shandrigholovo, indicating RF focus on this specific location near Krasnyy Lyman (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad reports RF forces entered the outskirts of Shandrigholovo on the Krasnyy Lyman direction (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM, RF claim). Pushilin claims RF forces destroyed the main AFU stronghold in Shandrigholovo on the Krasnyy Lyman direction (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim, MEDIUM for BDA).
- Torske Area: TASS (Andrey Marochko) reports RF forces control ~3.5 km of roadway near Torske (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Сливочный каприз posts a photo dated 09.08.25 of the Krasnyy Lyman - Kolodezi area, indicating RF presence or operations in this general vicinity (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Sieversk Direction: UA General Staff reports clashes near Hryhorivka and Fedorivka (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photos with the caption "Северское направление," indicating continued RF focus on this axis (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF intent/IO). TASS reports RF forces destroyed a concentration of UA infantry near Sieversk (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA).
- Novopavlivka Direction: UA General Staff reports clashes near Filiya, Zelene Pole, Tolstoy, Temyrivka, Maliyivka, Novopil, Voskresenka, Olhivske and towards Sichneve (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Z комитет + карта СВО posted a tactical map focusing on Voskresenka (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for map, MEDIUM for specific details). Colonelcassad posted a map depicting the situation in the Novopavlovskoye direction as of August 10, 2025, showing territorial control, settlement status, and fortifications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for map, MEDIUM for specific details). TASS reports RF forces are actively advancing in the Velikonovoselkovskoye direction in DNR, increasing pressure on UA forces, as stated by Pushilin (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim, MEDIUM for specific gains without corroboration). This confirms continued RF offensive pressure in this sector. Военкор Котенок posts a photo message and map regarding the Krasnyy Lyman direction, indicating RF operational focus in this area (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for map, MEDIUM for specific details).
- Kleban-Byk (DNR): TASS, Воин DV, and Colonelcassad claim successful RF FPV drone strikes on UA floating craft and crossing attempts near Kleban-Byk and Iskra (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claims/videos, MEDIUM for BDA). TASS reports RF forces blew up a UA boat in Kleban-Byk reservoir, Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), citing the Ministry of Defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This confirms continued RF interdiction of UA riverine movement. Colonelcassad claims "dozens of Ukrainian soldiers" were encircled in Kleban-Byk and forced to surrender (CONFIDENCE: LOW). This is an RF IO claim.
- Semenivka (Avdiivka Sector): High-confidence SIGINT and HUMINT confirms an imminent major Russian combined arms assault (within 24-48 hours) against Ukrainian positions in and around Semenivka, originating from the Tonenke staging area. This includes the first confirmed battlefield deployment of a TOS-2 'Tosochka' thermobaric MRL system near Orlivka and newly identified EW positions near Tonenke (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Novokhatske (Donetsk Oblast): Z комитет + карта СВО posted a tactical map focusing on Novokhatske, indicating RF operational focus in this area (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for map, MEDIUM for specific details).
- Katerynivka/Fedorivka (DPR): TASS reports Southern Group of Forces destroyed a UA UAV control point near Katerynivka and a UA communications node near Fedorivka, with video evidence (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). This suggests RF is targeting UA C2 and UAS infrastructure in the Toretsk/Sieversk directions.
- Kryvonosivka (Unspecified location, likely Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia): Colonelcassad posts video of a "Geranium" (Shahed) kamikaze UAV strike against alleged GUR special forces units near Kryvonosivka, showing significant damage to a building (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA and specific unit identification). This suggests continued RF targeting of UA special operations forces.
- Shakhove, Pokrovsk Raion: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts photos and claims RF shelling destroyed 31 private houses last night (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for photos/claim, MEDIUM for specific BDA/attribution). This indicates continued RF targeting of civilian infrastructure in areas close to the front. New intelligence indicates a UA Su-27 aircraft deployed a GBU62 guided bomb against an RF assault concentration near Pokrovsk (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of a pickup truck allegedly en route to Pokrovsk for the 155th Brigade's 2nd Mechanized Battalion, equipped with a strike drone company (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for specific BDA/mission). Zvиздец Мангусту reports on the Pokrovsk direction, including Dobropillya, indicating RF focus there (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report, MEDIUM for specifics).
- Oleshky (Kherson Oblast): UA General Staff and Оперативний ЗСУ report a high-precision bomb strike by Ukrainian Air Force on an RF battalion command post near Oleshky. Preliminary information suggests approximately 25 RF personnel killed and at least 11 wounded, including the commander, chief of staff, chief of engineering service, and a platoon commander (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна corroborates this strike, reinforcing the high confidence (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a graphic confirming the strike near Oleshky, with similar casualty figures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ posts video claiming liquidation of "Moscow degenerates" by operators of the 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA).
- Bilozerske (Donetsk Oblast): Два майора posts a video of a large explosion with a mushroom cloud in Bilozerske, Donetsk Oblast, claiming it's a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA and specific ordnance type).
Kupyansk Direction: Z комитет + карта СВО posts tactical analysis and map of the Kupyansk direction as of August 8, 2025, showing military dispositions and territorial control (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for map, MEDIUM for specific details). This indicates continued RF focus on this axis. Zvиздец Мангусту assesses the situation on the Kupyansk direction as "quite threatening," with the enemy having "significant chances" to "cling" to the city and largely paralyze UA logistics for units defending in and east of the city (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF assessment, MEDIUM for specific tactical analysis).
Chernihiv Oblast: UA Air Force reports current threat of enemy UAVs in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. Multiple groups of RF UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving southwest. UA Air Force confirms a reconnaissance UAV in the Oliyshivka area, Chernihiv Oblast, with engagement of assets (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС has released evidence alleging war crimes committed by RF military personnel (Denis Podgorny and accomplices) in Chernihiv Oblast, including the execution of a Ukrainian family, with one survivor (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for evidence, HIGH for alleged war crime). This is a critical development for documenting RF atrocities. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RF UAVs are inbound towards Borzna and Sribne (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Odesa Oblast: UAV strike on SOCAR oil depot, 4 wounded (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Multiple sources (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ) corroborate mine detonation near the shore in Zatoka, Odesa Oblast, with reported casualties of three people (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Odesa Oblast Military Administration confirms 3 fatalities (1 man in Karolino-Buhaz, 1 man and 1 woman in Zatoka) due to ignoring swimming bans, implying the mine explosion occurred in forbidden zones (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS also reports 3 fatalities from two explosions on the Odesa coast, further corroborating the incident (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора reports 2 fatalities from a mine explosion near the shore in Zatoka, Odesa Oblast, further corroborating the incident (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна posts a photo and report indicating the Ukrainian Navy has addressed the public after the death of three people in Odesa, reinforcing the severity of the mine threat (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts a video of a crowded beach with a highly inflammatory caption claiming UA civilians "for fun" swam on a mined beach, resulting in 3 deaths, clearly an RF information operation designed to mock and dehumanize UA victims and shift blame (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 confirms three deaths in Odesa Oblast due to ignoring swimming bans (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Ukrainian and Azerbaijani Presidents have condemned Russian air strikes on the SOCAR oil depot in Ukraine and a gas compressor station transporting Azerbaijani gas to Ukraine, with Baku calling them "targeted" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns amplifies this condemnation (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Военкор Котенок also reports on Aliyev's and Zelensky's condemnation of RF strikes on SOCAR oil depot (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Sil'y Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy posts photo message confirming two sea mines detonated at beaches in Karolino-Buhaz and Zatoka, Odesa Oblast, where swimming is prohibited due to mine danger. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad reports on the formation of an "Odesa Triangle" anti-Russian alliance between Ukraine, Moldova, and Romania, with Polish and Lithuanian MFA heads participating virtually. This alliance focuses on infrastructure development (Tisa bridge, Kyiv-Chisinau-Bucharest rail link) for "simplified EU access," interpreted by RF as military logistics (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO, MEDIUM for underlying details). Operatsiya Z (Voenkorы Русской Весны) reports on Zelensky's call with Aliyev, noting their condemnation of RF strikes on SOCAR oil depot (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video of a veteran with a prosthetic leg and another man with a raven in a park, touching on money and military service, not directly combat-related, but indicative of social impact of war (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, LOW for direct military relevance).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: UA official Serhiy Lysak reports "about four dozen enemy attacks" and one civilian casualty in Nikopol due to RF artillery. UA Air Force reported a reconnaissance UAV in eastern Dnipropetrovsk. Serhiy Lysak reports missile attack on Dnipro, with photo/video evidence of damage (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video claiming Russian "Geraniums" (Shahed UAVs) attacked the railway station in Synelnykove, Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast, showing a building engulfed in flames. This indicates continued RF targeting of UA railway infrastructure (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a map with the caption "Dnipropetrovsk direction" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for map, MEDIUM for specific details). Serhiy Lysak reports RF struck Nikopol Raion with FPV drones and heavy artillery, targeting Nikopol city and Myrove, Pokrovske, Marhanetske, and Chervonohryhorivske communities (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report, MEDIUM for BDA). Serhiy Lysak reports continued RF shelling in Nikopol Raion using UAVs and artillery (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Photo messages show damaged civilian buildings, including cracked windows and peeling frames (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports two people injured in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast due to enemy attack, citing local authorities (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA posts photos of damaged civilian buildings in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming the impact of RF strikes (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Sumy Oblast: RF source Z комитет + карта СВО posted tactical maps of the "Sumskoye Direction." UA Air Force reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UA Air Force confirms KAB launches on Sumy Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UA 79th Air Assault Brigade claims to have captured an RF mobilized soldier. UA Air Force reports a high-speed target moving through Sumy Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UA Air Force reports KABs launched on Sumy Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports threat of ballistic missile from Kursk, and a high-speed target moving (likely referring to the same Sumy incident) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Ballistic missile threat from Kursk has now been cleared (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора posts aerial footage showing explosions in a wooded area, captioned "Sumskoye direction," indicating continued RF fire support in this sector (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo of a tactical map showing the "Sumy Direction," indicating continued RF interest (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for map, MEDIUM for specific details). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report KABs launched on Sumy Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs are moving through northern Sumy Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts FPV drone video claiming to show RF soldiers scattering and a successful strike on a vehicle, indicating continued UA drone effectiveness against RF personnel and transport (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for UA claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). Николаевский Ванёк reports 12 new UAVs inbound towards Shostka, Sumy Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirms groups of strike UAVs from northern Sumy Oblast, moving past Shostka, Semenivka, and Novgorod-Siverskyi (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Николаевский Ванёк reports "отбой по этим мопедам" (all clear for these mopeds), indicating the previously reported 12 UAVs inbound towards Shostka, Sumy Oblast, have been cleared (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs are inbound for Sumy Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports RF forces hit a UA S-300V SAM system launch position near Vorozhba, Sumy Oblast, using a Geran-2 UAV, with video evidence (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA).
Kharkiv Oblast: Colonelcassad claims "Minus three 'Baba Yagas'" destroyed. RF drones struck Chuhuiv, wounding 2. Oleg Syniehubov reports 13 settlements struck (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that operators from the "Hart" brigade, a border guard unit, used FPV drones on fiber optics to destroy three disguised RF vehicles near Vovchansk (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). This demonstrates continued UA deep strike capability and effectiveness of FPV drones in this sector, particularly by border guard units. UA Air Force reports KABs launched on Kharkiv Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). National Police of Ukraine reports one civilian fatality in Kharkiv Oblast due to Russian shelling (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, posts a video of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy speaking, with a caption related to the Zaporizhzhia strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for specific relevance to Kharkiv besides general leadership messaging). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a tactical map titled "Kharkov direction" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for map, MEDIUM for specific details). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports on Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko's working visit to Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts video of "Hart" brigade drones hunting camouflaged RF vehicles near Vovchansk, utilizing fiber optics (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). Russian forces have initiated a new, multi-pronged ground offensive into northern Kharkiv Oblast, successfully achieving limited tactical gains and forcing the commitment of Ukrainian reserves. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This offensive is supported by intensified electronic warfare (EW) and persistent aerial bombardment, indicating a well-resourced operation. The operational threat level for the Kharkiv Defense Sector is elevated from SUBSTANTIAL to SEVERE. Enemy activity has escalated from shaping operations and cross-border raids to a deliberate, combined arms offensive along two primary axes toward Lyptsi and Vovchansk. Confirmed deployment of Pole-21 EW systems capable of wide-area GPS jamming is reported across the northern Kharkiv front, resulting in a notable increase in UAV losses. Increased use of UMPK glide bombs against frontline positions and rear areas. Elements of the newly formed 44th Army Corps (Leningrad Military District) are identified leading the assault. Enemy forces have reportedly secured positions within the outlying settlements of Strilecha, Krasne, Pylna, and Borysivka on the Vovchansk Axis. Probing attacks are ongoing toward the town of Lyptsi. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports that UA forces have redeployed units that have not had time to restore combat capability to Tykhe in Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim). WarGonzo posts a tactical map for the Kharkiv direction as of August 11, 2025 (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for map, MEDIUM for specific details). UA General Staff reports on military engagements in the Vovchansk direction (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports that 3 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes in the past day (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, posts a photo message warning of possible bad weather in Kharkiv Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). DeepState posts video of 2nd battalion, 101 OBRO GSh destroying enemy infantry in forests near Starytsia (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: UA Air Force reports KAB launches. UA and RF sources report missile danger. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 585 strikes on 11 settlements, two people died from enemy attack (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration declares "All Clear" for air raid (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration announces the deployment of 10 new European buses tomorrow, indicating continued efforts to maintain public services despite conflict (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Воин DV posts a video showing RF drone operators of the 57th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade "clearing the sky of Zaporizhzhia of enemy heavy copters," indicating RF counter-drone activity (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports two people wounded in Vasylivskyi district due to enemy attack (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). A new alert has been issued for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report KABs launched on Zaporizhzhia Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Nikolaevskiy Vanek corroborates KAB threat on Zaporizhzhia (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The 46th Airmobile Brigade DShV ZSU posts aerial reconnaissance footage showing the targeting and destruction of RF positions, including vehicles, indicating continued UA offensive/counter-offensive actions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). Initial reports of explosions in Zaporizhzhia (РБК-Україна) align with ongoing RF aerial activity, likely KABs or missile strikes given previous alerts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for explosion, MEDIUM for specific ordnance type). Оперативний ЗСУ reports local media indicating a strike on the Zaporizhzhia bus station, with video showing aftermath of attack on a civilian building with significant structural damage and scattered debris. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO confirms RF struck Zaporizhzhia bus station with a KAB. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 8 casualties (one in serious condition) as preliminary consequences of the attack on Zaporizhzhia, with accompanying images of damaged civilian buildings. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports 9 wounded, with people possibly under rubble, from the KAB strike on Zaporizhzhia Central Bus Station, with multiple videos showing aftermath. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ reports the number of wounded in Zaporizhzhia has increased to 8, one in serious condition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна confirms 8 wounded in Zaporizhzhia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a RF strike on Zaporizhzhia, with two wounded initially, later updated to three wounded. The strike targeted transportation infrastructure (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна corroborates explosions and wounded in Zaporizhzhia from a KAB strike, specifically impacting a smoke-affected area (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO posts a video claiming 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade's "Ronins" unit conducted a "Bukhankocid" (destruction of UAZ-452 "Bukhanka" vans) in Zaporizhzhia direction, showing multiple FPV drone strikes on vehicles and personnel, resulting in significant casualties (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). This demonstrates continued UA FPV drone effectiveness. ASTRA reports 8 wounded, one in serious condition, from the Zaporizhzhia attack (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 12 wounded from the Zaporizhzhia attack, with emergency services assisting (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports 12 wounded from the Zaporidence: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video depicting the aftermath of an apparent strike on the Zaporizhzhia bus station, showing significant structural damage to the building and civilians in the vicinity (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for specific casualties). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 19 wounded from the attack on Zaporizhzhia (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна posts multiple photos of the damaged Zaporizhzhia bus station (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts photos showing damage to seven multi-story residential buildings and non-residential premises (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zelenskiy / Official and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 post videos showing rescue and emergency services responding to the Zaporizhzhia strike (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zelenskyy has publicly reacted to the strike on Zaporizhzhia, stating that Russia is "looking for ways to kill Ukraine," emphasizing the indiscriminate nature of the attack on civilian targets including a bus station and a clinic (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The Head of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration, Serhiy Lysak, also posted a video showing emergency services responding to the Zaporizhzhia strike, confirming the use of "aerial bombs" on civilian buildings and casualties (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The Office of the Prosecutor General reports that at least 14 people were wounded in the Zaporizhzhia air strike, and a criminal investigation has been launched, further corroborating civilian casualties and the nature of the attack (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posted a video showing aerial footage of a destroyed urban area in the Zaporizhzhia direction with visible smoke plumes and debris, indicating recent heavy bombardment, and a significant explosion around 00:22 (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for specific BDA/attribution). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts video footage from surveillance cameras showing the moment of the RF strike on Zaporizhzhia, confirming the attack (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Сили оборони Півдня України posts photos and video of the aftermath of the strike on Zaporizhzhia, showing heavily damaged civilian buildings, emergency services, and search and rescue efforts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts video of the Zaporizhzhia bus station, confirming the strike and using derogatory language ("чугуния," "Быть добру!") (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, HIGH for RF IO intent). Воин DV posts video claiming "operators of the 218th Guards Tank Regiment of the 5th Army Group 'Vostok' destroy enemy manpower, materiel, and heavy drones in the Zaporizhzhia direction." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). РБК-Україна reports the number of wounded from the attack on Zaporizhzhia has increased to 20 (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 corroborates 20 wounded from the Zaporizhzhia attack (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA corroborates 20 wounded in Zaporizhzhia due to two air bombs (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues an alert (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has declared "All Clear" for air raid (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Рыбарь provides a map-based overview of military movements and engagements around Stepnohirsk and Orekhov, indicating RF advances and strategic points (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for map, MEDIUM for specifics). Colonelcassad posts video of RF 57th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade drones "clearing the sky of Zaporizhzhia of enemy heavy copters," indicating continued RF counter-drone activity (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports a 66-year-old woman was wounded in an enemy attack on Zaporizhzhia Raion (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The 46th Airmobile Brigade DShV ZSU released drone footage showing the destruction of RF positions, camouflaged equipment, and antennas, demonstrating active UA counter-offensive action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts video commemorating fallen defenders (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Kherson Oblast: Evacuation of "Korabel" microdistrict continues. RBK-Ukraina reports drone attack on bus in Kherson suburbs, 16 wounded. ASTRA and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report 2 killed, 6 wounded. Оперативний ЗСУ reports 2 killed, 16 wounded (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports 3 people killed after RF drone attacks in Kherson Oblast, citing local authorities (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This updates previous casualty figures and reinforces the continued drone threat in the region. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video of a burning military motorcycle, with a train in the background, likely in southern Ukraine. This may be related to the ongoing conflict in Kherson or Zaporizhzhia Oblasts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA/location). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RF strike UAVs from Kherson Oblast are moving towards Mykolaiv Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad and Kotsnews posted videos from the 18th Combined Arms Army's aerial observation post, part of the "Dnipro" group of forces, which reportedly shows the density of Ukrainian drone attacks on RF positions in the zone of the special operation (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for RF claims of density). This indicates RF is actively monitoring UA drone activity, particularly in the Southern direction. Два майора posted a video captioned "On the Crimean shores," showing a military-style boat with insignia, likely a training or operational deployment in a maritime environment, possibly related to Kherson/Crimea defense (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for specific context). Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts a video of traffic congestion on the road to Crimea, suggesting continued civilian movement to/from the peninsula (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора reports on the intermediate results of the evacuation of civilian population from the Korabel microdistrict by the "occupational Ukrainian administration of Kherson" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO). Два майора posts a video depicting ground targets, possibly from a drone, with crosshairs indicating targeting, suggesting continued RF aerial reconnaissance and strike activity in the Kherson AO (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). Два майора posts another video showing a military vehicle and personnel from an aerial view, with text 'Fire/Blaze', suggesting engagement or aftermath in the Kherson AO (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA).
Kryvyi Rih: Oleksandr Vilkul reports situation controlled (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Oleksandr Vilkul provides a briefing on outcomes of August 10 and the week, mentioning a project with Luxembourg for business recovery, indicating efforts to maintain economic stability (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of the morning of August 11, 2025 (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Poltava Oblast: UA Air Force reports an enemy UAV in northern Poltava Oblast; assets engaged (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
RF Territory:
- Lipetsk Oblast: Governor Igor Artamonov announced yellow-level "air danger regime," then red-level "UAV attack threat," now cancelled both (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Artamonov also posted a video of a family running event, likely a normalcy-projecting IO effort (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for IO intent). Igor Artamonov posts a video highlighting agricultural activities, grain harvesting, urban infrastructure development including renovation of polyclinics and stadiums, and local events, which is a clear RF IO effort to project normalcy and civilian life. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Igor Artamonov reports red-level "UAV attack threat" declared for Yelets, Yelets MR, Dolgorukovsky MR, Stanovlyansky MO, Izmalkovsky MO (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Igor Artamonov reports the red-level "UAV attack threat" for Lipetsk Oblast has been cancelled (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports drone safety measures are in place in Lipetsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Rostov Oblast: ASTRA reports railway de-energized, continued smoke from Millerovo oil depot, explosion/fire in Rostov-on-Don residential building after UAV hit. ATESh claims responsibility for destroying RF logistics near Rostov (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM, UA claim with some visual evidence). TASS and ASTRA report glass shattered, two apartments damaged, emergency regime introduced (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports that an emergency regime has been introduced in Millerovo, Rostov Oblast, after a night drone attack, indicating continued disruption to RF civilian infrastructure (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts satellite imagery labeled "Millerovo Airfield - 30.07." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for image, MEDIUM for BDA without further context). This indicates UA targeting of RF airfields. New satellite imagery from КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno dated 08.08 shows damage to a fuel and lubricants base ("Ertan" base) in Millerovo, with one tank destroyed and at least one more damaged (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for imagery, MEDIUM for BDA/attribution without further context). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno also reports on renewed damage to the "Zamchalovo" substation from August 1-2 attacks, confirming transformer damage (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for imagery, MEDIUM for BDA). This demonstrates continued UA targeting of critical energy infrastructure. STERNENKO reports drone safety measures (Kovyor plan) are implemented in Rostov Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Krasnodar Krai: ASTRA reports finding debris from shot-down drones (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports several houses and a school damaged (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Belgorod Oblast: Governor Gladkov states civilian woman died, parents injured. TASS reports married couple died. WarGonzo and ASTRA corroborate two deaths (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS confirms one civilian woman died in Novaya Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, from shelling (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports Governor Gladkov states a civilian woman died in Novaya Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, from shelling by the AFU (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна posts an intercepted GUR call from a Belgorod resident complaining about RF aviation dropping bombs over villages (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for intercept, MEDIUM for BDA). Governor Bogomaz claims another attack by AFU on RF "agrarians" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO). Governor Bogomaz reports a KamAZ truck was also working in the field during the attack, potentially indicating another target or confirming civilian presence (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report, LOW for military significance). TASS reports 11 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Belgorod Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Bryansk Oblast: Governor Bogomaz reports 13 enemy UAVs destroyed overnight, then 6 more, then 4 more, then 11 more between 12:00 and 15:30 MSK (total 34). ASTRA corroborates 27 total UAVs shot down, 11 over Bryansk. ASTRA reports 35 more destroyed between 15:30 and 18:00 MSK (total 69). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts video of an alleged enemy breakthrough attempt in Bryansk Oblast, depicting soldiers moving through a destroyed urban landscape and an explosion (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video). Governor Bogomaz reports 11 enemy aircraft-type UAVs were destroyed by RF MoD air defense over Bryansk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). AV БогомаZ further reports that seven enemy aircraft-type UAVs were destroyed by RF MoD air defense over Bryansk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports drone safety measures (Kovyor plan) are implemented in Bryansk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). AV БогомаZ further reports Ukrainian terrorists attacked Strativa village in Starodubsky municipal district with a kamikaze drone (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a woman was wounded after a downed UAV fell in Bryansk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a man was wounded in a kamikaze drone attack in Bryansk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). AV БогомаZ reports RF PVO shot down five enemy aircraft-type UAVs over Bryansk Oblast last night (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports drone safety measures are in place in Bryansk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Saratov Oblast: New reports from UA General Staff, Оперативний ЗСУ, and РБК-Україна confirm that Ukrainian forces, specifically the Unmanned Systems Forces, struck the Saratov Oil Refinery overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a direct confirmation of a successful deep strike on strategic RF infrastructure. Рыбарь posts a map depicting drone attacks, indicating a large-scale event (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for map, MEDIUM for precise BDA). ASTRA and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS further confirm the UA General Staff's report on the strike on Saratov Oil Refinery (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO posts a video with a caption "Very beautiful video from Saratov. Honey for the ears," showing a significant fire with large flames in Saratov, further corroborating the successful strike on the Saratov Oil Refinery (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ posts an image showing a "hole in the tank" at Ukhta, implying damage but no fire, and commenting "Need to repeat." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for post, MEDIUM for BDA). This seems to be conflating Ukhta with Saratov. It is possible the photo is from Ukhta, but the reference to a "hole in the tank" for Saratov has not been confirmed. CyberBoroshno posts photos claiming to show the results of the strike on Saratov Oil Refinery, dated 10.08.2025 (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for photos, MEDIUM for specific BDA/attribution without further analysis). Оперативний ЗСУ posts photos labeled "Consequences of UAV strikes on Saratov Oil Refinery 10.08.2025 - CyberBoroshno" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for photos, MEDIUM for BDA/attribution without further analysis).
- Voronezh Oblast: ASTRA reports approximately 10 UAVs were shot down overnight in seven municipalities of Voronezh Oblast, with no casualties (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Moscow Oblast: TASS (Mayor Sobyanin) reports RF Air Defense shot down UAV attacking Moscow. ASTRA corroborates (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Ministry of Emergency Situations issued an emergency warning for Moscow regarding heavy rain, thunderstorms, and winds up to 15 m/s for the next 24 hours (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This weather could impact drone operations and outdoor activities in Moscow. WarGonzo posted photos from a "grand parade of athletes" in Moscow, an RF IO effort to project normalcy and strength (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for IO intent). Kotsnews posts a video of a parade or march of young people, likely athletes or participants in a youth event, carrying flags and walking in formation at VDNKh, Moscow, as a "grand parade of athletes" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for IO intent). Старше Эдды posted a video of a similar "grand parade of athletes" in Moscow, further confirming this RF IO effort (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports RF Air Defense shot down a UAV flying towards Moscow, as stated by Mayor Sobyanin (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора corroborates the downing of a UAV over Moscow (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports the enemy is again attempting to attack Moscow (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim). TASS reports RF Air Defense shot down another UAV flying towards Moscow (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports another UAV flying towards Moscow has been destroyed (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports a series of explosions near Moscow, indicating the enemy is attacking the capital (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim). Colonelcassad reports that Russian air defense on the approaches to the capital shot down several enemy drones overnight that attempted to break through to Moscow. No serious damage was reported. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports suspected armed robbery at a Moscow post office. While not directly military, this indicates a domestic security incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports the founder of the "Sarkisyan" volunteer battalion was killed in a terrorist attack by a suicide bomber in the Alye Parusa residential complex, citing FSB (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS further reports Kyiv used five elderly women, who were defrauded of money, as "living bombs" for terrorist attacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS publishes a video depicting the alleged use of elderly women for terrorist attacks, showing an elderly woman with other individuals and an X-ray of what appears to be an IED (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, HIGH for RF claim). Оперативний ЗСУ posts archived footage of the liquidation of collaborant Armen Sarkisyan in Moscow (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). STERNENKO reports drone safety measures are in place in Moscow Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z (Voenkorы Русской Весны) provides multiple videos and context for FSB claims of Ukrainian special services using deceived elderly women as "living bombs" for terrorist attacks in Moscow (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO).
- Kaluga Oblast: TASS reports RF Air Defense destroyed 5 Ukrainian UAVs over Kaluga Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports drone safety measures (Kovyor plan) are implemented in Kaluga Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports restrictions in Kaluga airport lifted (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Kaluga airport (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports drone safety measures are in place in Kaluga Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Komis Republic (Ukhta): ASTRA reports a military serviceman killed a musician in Petrozavodsk during a brawl in a park; the man died (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a civilian criminal incident, but involves military personnel. ASTRA and Оперативний ЗСУ report loud sounds and explosions, and an air raid alert in Ukhta (Komis Republic). Alex Parker Returns claims UA UAVs were detected in the sky with first hits, and attributes it to "khokhly" (a derogatory term for Ukrainians). This indicates a new deep strike into previously untouched RF territory (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for reports of sounds/alerts, MEDIUM for BDA without further evidence of specific damage/targets). РБК-Україна reports "unknown drones reached the Komi Republic for the first first time, 'cotton' visited the Ukhta Oil Refinery" with accompanying videos/photos, providing further corroboration and suggesting a successful strike (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Ukhta airport due to Rosaviatsiya (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports "good drones" attacked a shopping center and oil refinery in Ukhta, Komi Republic, with video footage of an industrial facility with a plume of white material emanating from a tank, indicating damage (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for reports, MEDIUM for BDA and specific targets). Оперативний ЗСУ posted video of an alleged UAV that struck the Ukhta oil refinery (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, LOW for precise identification of drone). TASS reports no casualties from UAV crashes in Komi (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). New ASTRA video footage from Komi Republic shows a small fixed-wing aircraft/drone near a tall structure, possibly a surveillance/reconnaissance mission. This corroborates prior reports of UAV activity in the region (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video from the Ukhta strike, highlighting the significant distance from Ukrainian borders (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). ASTRA reports that temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure at Ukhta airport have been lifted (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS corroborates the lifting of flight restrictions at Ukhta airport (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ reports GUR drones attacked Lukoil-Ukhtaneft processing plant (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms Ukrainian drones struck Lukoil-Ukhtaneft oil refinery (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Chechen Republic: Kadyrov_95 claims two UA UAVs were detected and successfully destroyed by RF air defense in Shalkovsk and Nadterechny districts during the night of 8-10 August, with no casualties or damage (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM, RF claim). Video footage shows drone wreckage in a field (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video of wreckage, LOW for independent verification of origin or specific incident). This represents a new deep strike attempt into RF territory. Kadyrov_95 posts a video of a car driving on a road with a motivational message, not directly military, but part of his channel's content (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for content, LOW for military significance). «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» posts photos of commander Apty Aronovich and Father Nikolay, a clear RF IO effort to project religious and military unity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- General RF Air Defense: TASS (RF MoD) claims 66 UA UAVs destroyed/intercepted, then 97 during the night. ASTRA corroborates 97 (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS (RF MoD) and ASTRA report 44 UA UAVs shot down between 08:00 and 12:00 MSK (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports 27 UA UAVs shot down between 12:00 and 15:30 MSK (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA corroborates 27 total. ASTRA reports 35 more shot down between 15:30 and 18:00 MSK (total 69). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports 26 UA UAVs intercepted/destroyed over RF regions and Azov Sea within two hours (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS (RF MoD) and ASTRA report 121 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed or intercepted overnight over Russian regions and the Azov Sea (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim, LOW for independent verification of quantity). Colonelcassad reports that the "Dome of Donbass" EW system prevented 799 "terrorist attacks" (presumably drone attacks) over the week, and 441 UAVs were eliminated over Donetsk and Makeyevka, and 358 over Horlivka (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for specific numbers, HIGH for RF claim/IO). This indicates a continued high volume of UA drone activity in occupied areas and RF's defensive efforts. TASS claims 15 UA UAVs were destroyed over RF regions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim, LOW for independent verification). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video claiming to show RF PVO failure, with multiple explosions in the distance (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). This likely refers to a UA deep strike. TASS reports 26 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over RF regions by RF MoD (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports that 14 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over RF regions in the last 2 hours (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim). STERNENKO reports drone safety measures (Kovyor plan) are implemented in Vladimir, Ivanovo, Nizhny Novgorod, Penza, Ryazan, Smolensk, and Tula Oblasts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts satellite imagery analysis suggesting the probable detection of a "Yenisei" radar/SAM system, reportedly hit by GUR (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for analysis, MEDIUM for BDA). This suggests UA is targeting RF air defense assets. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of RF publishing footage of "Shaheds" deploying PTM-3 anti-tank mines on roads, indicating a new and dangerous RF tactical adaptation of loitering munitions for mine laying (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, HIGH for new capability). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS corroborates RF use of Shaheds for mining roads with anti-tank mines (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports 27 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over RF regions within three hours (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim). ASTRA corroborates 27 UAVs shot down over Tula Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports 2 people died and 3 wounded in Tula Oblast due to drone attacks on a civilian enterprise (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора corroborates drone attacks on Tula Oblast, citing the governor (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad claims several dozen drones were shot down across various regions of Russia overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports RF MoD shot down 32 Ukrainian UAVs overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ corroborates RF MoD claim of 32 UAVs shot down overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports RF MoD shot down 11 Ukrainian UAVs over Crimea, Nizhny Novgorod, and Belgorod Oblasts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 59/71 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for UA claim, MEDIUM for specific breakdown). Оперативний ЗСУ corroborates UA Air Force report of 59/71 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z reports RF PVO shot down 46 Ukrainian UAVs over 11 regions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim, LOW for independent verification of quantity). STERNENKO reports that Ukrainian drones are continuously attacking RF territories (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Север.Реалии reports 3 people died after drone attacks on Russian regions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Tula Oblast: TASS reports 2 people died and 3 wounded as a result of a UAV attack in Tula (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA corroborates 2 dead, 3 wounded from drone attack in Tula Oblast, citing governor (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) corroborates 2 dead, 3 wounded from drone attack on civilian enterprise in Tula Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора posts photos reporting on the Tula Oblast drone attack and casualties, citing the governor (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports drone safety measures are in place in Tula Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Penza Oblast: TASS reports "Kovyor" plan (drone safety measures) has been cancelled in Penza Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports drone safety measures are in place in Penza Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Nizhny Novgorod Oblast: TASS reports Nizhny Novgorod airport has temporarily suspended flights (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports explosions in Arzamas, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, from unknown drones (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports one person died and two were injured in a UAV attack in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, citing the governor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad reports that during the night drone attack in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, one person was killed and two were injured, with some damage inflicted on an industrial enterprise (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO posts video showing a multi-story building with noticeable damage, particularly on upper floors and roof, and a building with a partially destroyed roof and smoke in the background, attributed to a drone attack on an instrument-making plant in Arzamas (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Other videos from STERNENKO show a small aircraft in flight and a distant explosion/air defense engagement, suggesting continued drone activity in Nizhny Novgorod (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports one person killed and two injured from a UAV strike in Arzamas district, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports restrictions on air traffic at Nizhny Novgorod airport have been lifted (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). WarGonzo reports one employee of an industrial enterprise was killed in a UAV attack in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports drone safety measures are in place in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Petrozavodsk (Karelia Republic): ASTRA reports a military serviceman killed a musician in Petrozavodsk during a brawl in a park; the man died (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a civilian criminal incident, but involves military personnel.
- New Legislation: TASS reports a bill will be submitted to the State Duma to lower the age for joining political parties to 16 (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This indicates RF's intent to engage youth in political processes, potentially as part of broader mobilization or social control efforts. TASS reports that State Duma deputies recommended including obesity in the list of socially significant diseases (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a domestic social policy concern, not directly military. TASS reports Sergei Rybalchenko, Chairman of the OP Commission on Demography, Family Protection, Children and Traditional Family Values, has stated that the age for purchasing alcohol in Russia needs to be gradually raised to 21 years (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a domestic social policy concern, not directly military. TASS (010905Z AUG 25) reports the government will introduce strict quality standards for public services, assigning responsible curators for each service. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF government intention). TASS reports that active use of drones for goods delivery could begin in two to three years, as stated by the Minister of Transport (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This indicates RF's long-term investment in civilian drone technology, which could have dual-use implications.
- Khabarovsk Krai: Полиция Хабаровского края has issued a video message recruiting for the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) in Khabarovsk Krai. The video highlights job vacancies for operational investigators, district police commissioners, traffic inspectors, and investigators, and provides a hotline number for the HR department (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a domestic recruitment effort, not directly military, but indicates internal RF personnel needs for law enforcement.
- Kamchatka: TASS reports over 50 aftershocks have been recorded on Kamchatka in the past 24 hours (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This indicates ongoing seismic activity, but is geographically distant and not directly impacting military operations.
- Real Estate Development: TASS reports that one-fifth of all housing in Russia will be new by 2030, citing Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin. This is a domestic economic and social development, not directly military, but projects an image of progress and stability (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Samara Oblast: TASS reports former Deputy Governor of Samara Oblast, Gennady Gendin, has been accused of embezzling approximately 100 million rubles (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Amur Oblast (Blagoveshchensk): TASS reports a man has been detained in Blagoveshchensk, Amur Oblast, for preparing sabotage on the Trans-Siberian Railway (Transsib), as stated by the FSB for Amur Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a new internal security incident deep within RF territory.
- FSB Claims: TASS reports FSB claims Ukrainian special services are using deceived Russians as suicide bombers for terrorist attacks against military personnel in the Moscow region (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO). TASS reports five elderly women were deceived by scammers and then allegedly used by Kyiv as "living bombs" for attacks on military personnel in Moscow (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO). This is a significant RF IO development.
Tatarstan: STERNENKO reports drone attack on UAV assembly workshop (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна also report drone attacks on "Shahed production plant" with videos of explosions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). SBU confirmed attack on Shahed storage terminal (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ reports a drone alert in Tatarstan and the implementation of "Kovyor" plan, causing at least 6 flight delays at Kazan airport, suggesting continued UA deep strike attempts on military-industrial targets (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Satellite imagery from Оперативний ЗСУ shows consequences of UAV strike on a logistics hub storing Shaheds, likely in Tatarstan. The images show significant damage consistent with a successful strike (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for imagery, MEDIUM for precise location without further context). STERNENKO reports drone safety measures are in place in Tatarstan (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Transnistria: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo claiming Khmelnytskyi Oblast resident caught attempting to cross into Moldova by paraglider (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO on border incident). РБК-Україна reports Ukrainian border guards thwarted an escape attempt of three men to Slovakia through the mountains (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report, indicating continued attempts to evade mobilization).
Kyiv: КМВА posts photos of cleanup of abandoned/damaged vehicles, and a photo exhibition on "Heroic Defense of Chasiv Yar" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). КМВА also posts a photo commemorating fallen defenders (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
China: Colonelcassad reports serial production of long-range loitering munition PD-2900 has begun in China (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report, LOW for specific details or potential impact on conflict). Операция Z reports China seeks to ease US chip export restrictions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report, MEDIUM for veracity). This has economic and potentially military implications for RF's access to advanced technologies. РБК-Україна corroborates the report that China is pressurring the US to ease export controls on chips (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Рыбарь posts a photo message titled "China tightens 'rare earth vice'," suggesting China is asserting control over rare earth material exports (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report). This has significant implications for global military industrial complexes, including Western allies. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Trump is considering tariffs on China for buying Russian oil, though a final decision has not been made (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report, MEDIUM for full context). This indicates potential economic pressure points. Colonelcassad posts video of the flight of a new Chinese KJ-3000 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft, based on the Y-20 military transport aircraft with WS-20 engines (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This indicates advanced Chinese military aviation development with potential long-term implications for global power projection and technology transfer. Colonelcassad also posts a video of a military transport aircraft, likely an Il-76, suggesting ongoing logistical or transport operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for specific mission).
Luhansk: Mash на Донбассе posts a video and photos of construction workers damaging a roof of a nine-story building in Luhansk and attempting to fix it with cement (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report, LOW for military significance, but indicates potential civilian infrastructure issues in occupied territories). РБК-Україна reports RF is converting children into weapons by opening sniper training programs in Luhansk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report). TASS reports Andrey Marochko claims Kyiv lost nearly 4,000 soldiers and mercenaries in battles near Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) over the week (CONFIDENCE: LOW). This is an RF IO claim.
Afghanistan: ASTRA reports the Taliban has begun mass closures of women's beauty salons in Kabul (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report, LOW for direct military relevance, but indicates the Taliban's internal policies). This is a general geopolitical observation. Alex Parker Returns posts a video and caption suggesting a blogger visited "non-terrorists from Afghanistan" to absorb "traditional family values." While vague, this is likely an RF information operation attempting to align with conservative social narratives or to normalize engagement with the Taliban, diverting from its designated terrorist status (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Alex Parker Returns amplified an RF claim that a Crocus City Hall terrorist suspect trained in Afghanistan, attempting to link this to "biological drones" and demonize Afghanistan as a "terrorist partner" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO content). Colonelcassad reports on a Crocus City Hall terrorist suspect receiving training in Afghanistan (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim, MEDIUM for verification). TASS reports "Crocus" attackers were caught thanks to police reviewing cameras during the fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Serbia: РБК-Україна reports Serbian minister hospitalized after stroke, a domestic political event with no no immediate military relevance (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports four people were hospitalized after the earthquake in Turkey, citing the Ministry of Health (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Serbian President Vucic states that the Putin-Trump meeting could be a step towards peace in Ukraine (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Finland: Два майора reports Finland's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Riikka Purra, proposed to stop payments to refugees from the state budget (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report, indicating potential shift in refugee policy in a key European state). This has broader geopolitical implications for Europe's approach to refugees.
Iran: Colonelcassad posts a photo message claiming the Chairman of the National Security Commission of the Iranian Parliament stated that Iran supports the settlement of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine through dialogue and negotiation, and is ready to act as a mediator (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report, indicating Iran's stated diplomatic position). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports on a warning from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to Azerbaijan and Armenia, indicating a heightened geopolitical tension in the region. The message uses inflammatory language like "This is worse than Zelensky's mistake. We are ready to repeat Ukraine's fate for you," indicating Iran's assertive regional policy and willingness to project power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report, MEDIUM for veracity of direct quote). РБК-Україна reports Iranian President supported "Trump's route" through Armenia, but there's a nuance (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Turkey: WarGonzo posts a video claiming Turkey has obtained the capability for a "nearly nuclear strike," showing test footage of the MK 84 GAZA P 2000 LB bomb. This is highly likely an RF IO to create alarm or sow discord regarding NATO capabilities, but the existence of such a bomb (a general-purpose bomb, not nuclear) is plausible (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO, HIGH for bomb existence, LOW for "nearly nuclear" claim). TASS reports a 6.1 magnitude earthquake in Balıkesir province (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA posts video showing the 6.1 magnitude earthquake in Balıkesir province, northwest Turkey, causing destruction (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports approximately 10 houses collapsed in western Turkey due to the earthquake (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a civilian event, not directly military. РБК-Україна reports powerful earthquake in Turkey destroyed dozens of buildings (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ posts photos and videos showing destruction in Turkey due to the 6.1 magnitude earthquake. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports one person died and 29 were injured as a result of the earthquake in Turkey, citing the Interior Minister (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Scotland: Рыбарь posts a propaganda graphic with text "Nuclear leak in Scotland." This is a likely RF information operation to create alarm or sow discord against NATO/Western countries (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent, LOW for veracity).
Lviv (Ukraine): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports an armed man took hostages in "Arsen" supermarket on Chornovola. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ reports information circulating about a man with a pistol taking hostages in a supermarket in Lviv (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report, MEDIUM for veracity). This is a civilian security incident, not directly military. РБК-Україна reports on network discussions about hostages in a Lviv supermarket (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). НгП раZVедка posts two photo messages discussing the possibility of striking targets like Lviv and Zhytomyr, indicating RF intent or targeting considerations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF intent).
United States: Kotsnews reports on US statements regarding "compromise" and dissatisfaction for all parties (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Старше Эдды amplifies this sentiment (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts a video compilation discussing a plan to end the "SVO" (Special Military Operation) on federal media, framing it as "heating up the goyim" (derogatory term), and specifically mentioning "long-term peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian crisis," indicating continued RF focus on influencing US public opinion and diplomatic narratives (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message suggesting Zelensky will be on Alaska waiting during the Putin-Trump meeting, an RF IO attempting to diminish Zelensky's diplomatic standing (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). РБК-Україна reports Trump will hold a press conference to present a plan to improve Washington's security and attractiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns reports US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker stated he heard Zelensky's comments against territorial exchange, but that the US believes the war must end, indicating US diplomatic flexibility (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kotsnews posted a photo message indicating 42% of its subscribers believe Alaska belongs to Russia and should become an "Alaskan People's Republic," which is a clear RF IO attempt to sow geopolitical discord, challenge US sovereignty, and extend its territorial claims (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message claiming "The bulldozer of American politics came up with 101 kilometers. Be good!", likely a reference to a demilitarized zone or exclusion zone, further indicating RF IO regarding potential post-conflict arrangements (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports that a close associate of Putin has proposed ending the war in Ukraine, citing the NYT (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reported on this (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). This is a significant development, potentially indicating internal RF discussions about conflict resolution. Басурин о главном posts photos of Scott Ritter (US) in Moscow, likely an RF IO effort to leverage perceived Western dissent (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video combining footage of Putin and Trump at the 2019 Osaka Summit, news reports of potential future meetings, and visuals from Alaska, aiming to frame the upcoming meeting and US-Russia relations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for IO intent). Два майора posts a question: "Meeting of the Supreme and Trump = End of the SVO?" which is a clear RF IO to frame the potential outcome of the summit (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна posts a photo message stating "European leaders seek to speak with Trump before the summit with Putin - Bloomberg" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z (Voenkorы Русской Весны) posts video of German Chancellor appealing to US and Russia not to decide Ukrainian territories "over the heads" of Europe and Ukraine (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for veracity of direct quote/IO intent). Alex Parker Returns posts video of two individuals with prosthetic legs walking outdoors, captioned "Avdeevka sprinter" and attributing their condition to Zelensky's policies as a "military dictator," which is a cynical RF IO aimed at demoralizing UA forces and blaming UA leadership for casualties (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message with the caption "And then, like a bolt from the blue," referring to a statement by former US Vice President Mike Pence regarding the US needing to end funding for the war in Ukraine, which is an RF IO attempt to undermine Western support (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Два майора reports German Chancellor Merz called on US and Russia not to decide Ukrainian territories "over the heads" of Europe and Ukraine (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts photos claiming European leaders want to talk with Trump before his meeting with Putin in Alaska, further amplifying Western disunity (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports US tariffs on China could be zeroed out if the trade imbalance improves, citing US Treasury head Scott Bessent (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message with the caption "I don't know how the arrest of 4th-grade carpenter Evgeny Vasilievich will help end the war. Good will prevail!" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports Polish Deputy Prime Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz believes inviting Zelensky to the Trump-Putin meeting would be the best solution (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Peter Kuznick, Director of the Nuclear Research Institute at American University in Washington, has stated that the plans for a Putin-Trump meeting suggest that the outlines of a deal are already in place (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a key RF IO amplifying perceived Western acceptance of their terms. The New York Times reports that the US Secret Service has rented housing in Anchorage ahead of the Putin-Trump summit in Alaska (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This confirms logistical preparations for the summit, supporting the probability of the event. РБК-Україна posts a photo message with caption from UA Ambassador to the US Oksana Markarova stating US will act from a position of strength in negotiations with Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts a photo message that is an "Attention!" warning for Ukrainian citizens (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO content). TASS reports an Indian journalist stated that Russia, India, and China can overcome US pressure through joint actions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo message using "Trump can help where Putin can't!" which is a clear UA IO attempt to sow discord within the RF narrative regarding the summit (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports that Putin's special representative for economic cooperation, Kirill Dmitriev, states the Putin-Trump meeting will bring peace and global security (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO). Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan will discuss cooperation options with US authorities, according to WSJ (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ISW reports Russia will try to use the Trump-Putin meeting to divide the US and Europe, not for meaningful peace efforts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Fighterbomber discusses the upcoming Putin-Trump meeting in a new episode of "333" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message: "But there is another path - a path of peace, brotherhood, love, and goodness!" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent).
WarGonzo: WarGonzo posts a video featuring the new commander of the "Somali" battalion, "Myth," and his reality of war, which is a pro-Russian propaganda piece aiming to humanize and glorify RF forces (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). WarGonzo also posted a photo message on "How Abkhazia fought its way during the '080808' war," which is an RF IO attempt to draw parallels to past conflicts and justify current actions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). WarGonzo posts a photo message titled "How Abkhazia fought its way during the '080808' war," indicating continued historical revisionism and justification for aggression (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). WarGonzo posts a "Frontline summary" for the morning of August 11, 2025, with multiple image messages displaying tactical maps of various directions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report, MEDIUM for specific details).
Lithuania/Estonia/Latvia: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video of a political discussion, likely Russian state TV, discussing "Balts as a geopolitical misunderstanding" and questioning who would "burn in a nuclear Armageddon for the Baltics." This is an RF IO attempt to sow discord within NATO and undermine the resolve of Baltic states and their allies (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent).
Armenia: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that American planes have arrived in Yerevan (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This suggests increased US military/diplomatic presence in the South Caucasus, potentially related to regional tensions amplified by Iran's recent warnings.
South-Donetsk Direction: Военкор Котенок posts a photo message captioned "South-Donetsk direction" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for map/photo, MEDIUM for specific details without further context). Военкор Котенок posts a photo message titled "Rhino against Russians. Caucasian front is not far off," which is highly inflammatory and seems to refer to regional tensions, potentially involving Azerbaijan and Iran, and could be an RF IO to escalate perceived threats on its southern flank (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO, LOW for specific details without further context). Военкор Котенок posts a photo message recommending a subscription to an information publication (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for advertisement, LOW for military relevance).
Equatorial Guinea: Рыбарь posts a photo message reporting on an attempted coup in Equatorial Guinea, indicating RF's monitoring of African stability, potentially for geopolitical influence (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report, LOW for direct military relevance to Ukraine).
Russian Internal Affairs: TASS (010159Z AUG 25) reports that scammers are stealing money from students by posing as university officials, warning them about funds obtained through criminal means (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a domestic crime incident, not directly military. TASS reports the death of Mikhail Kenin, a major shareholder of the Russian developer "Samolet" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a domestic news item, not directly military. ASTRA reports that a military serviceman killed a musician in Petrozavodsk during a brawl in a park; the man died (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС claims a Russian propagandist/assault medic was eliminated by UA defenders, including photos and video (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for UA claim, MEDIUM for BDA/specific unit). Оперативний ЗСУ also reports elimination of "rosspropagandon," likely referring to the same incident (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for UA claim). Colonelcassad posts photo screenshots from Anastasia Mirzak, an employee of Svyatoshinsky Court, showing her with a Nazi German flag with a swastika (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for photo, HIGH for RF IO intent to discredit UA). Alex Parker Returns posts photo message "Confusion" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for IO intent). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of a shootout between a "saboteur" and Russian police in Arkhangelsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA), further confirming internal incidents. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photos related to this incident (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for photo, MEDIUM for BDA). НгП раZVедка posts two photo messages captioned "From more adequate enemy resources to less adequate ones" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a new RF IO attempting to discredit or categorize Ukrainian information sources, possibly as part of a broader campaign against UA media. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video of a Russian citizen from Africa claiming there is no racism in Russia, part of an RF IO campaign to project inclusivity (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z (Voenkorы Русской Весны) posts a detailed description of the previous video, reinforcing the RF IO about lack of racism in Russia (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). НгП раZVедка posts a photo message claiming to have "undermined Ukraine's information field" instead of logistics, indicating RF IO targeting Ukrainian information operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). НгП раZVедка posts a detailed description of the previous message, reinforcing the RF IO claim of disrupting Ukrainian information efforts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Стрелков Игорь Иванович posts on "Russian nationalism" in the USSR (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for content, LOW for military relevance). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts an image advertising portraits for wives (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for advertisement, LOW for military relevance).
Gaza Strip: TASS reports Al Jazeera announced the death of four of its employees due to an Israeli strike on Gaza City (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a significant development in the Gaza conflict, not directly related to Ukraine but could influence international attention. РБК-Україна reports Greta Thunberg will try to break the blockade of the Gaza Strip again (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a civilian activist event, not military.
Global Geopolitical: New photo messages from РБК-Україна show Netanyahu and Trump discussing plans for Israel's offensive in Gaza (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This indicates continued high-level engagement on the Gaza conflict, which could further divert international attention and resources from Ukraine. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo of a Russian Ka-52 "Alligator" attack helicopter in flight against a clear sky, with another helicopter partially visible, indicating continued RF aerial operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for image, MEDIUM for specific mission). Оперативний ЗСУ posts a tactical map presenting current operational information as of 08:00, August 11, 2025 (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UA General Staff reports on the operational situation as of 08:00, August 11, 2025, providing a comprehensive overview of combat activities across various directions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). DeepState has updated its map (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Overall RF Air Defense: Operations Z reports that RF PVO shot down 46 Ukrainian UAVs over 11 regions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim, LOW for independent verification of quantity).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No new significant weather or environmental factors affecting operations. Minor geomagnetic storm is unlikely to have significant impact. New coronavirus strain "Stratus" in Ukraine is a public health issue. Fire in Cordoba Cathedral in Spain is a cultural/civilian event, not directly related to military operations. Ministry of Emergency Situations issued an emergency warning for Moscow regarding heavy rain, thunderstorms, and winds up to 15 m/s for the next 24 hours (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This weather could impact drone operations and outdoor activities in Moscow. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, posts a photo message warning of possible bad weather in Kharkiv Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This could impact local ground operations or aerial reconnaissance. Germany expresses concern over delays in Chinese resource supplies for weapons production (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Voenno-promyshlennye kompanii Germanii is experiencing a deficit of rare earth materials (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This has indirect implications for overall Western military industrial capacity. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports Germany is in a deep crisis with industrial collapse and export under attack (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO, LOW for objective economic assessment). This is likely an RF information operation aimed at sowing discord and undermining Western support. ASTRA reports a severe flood situation in Dagestan, with the Ministry of Emergency Situations declaring a high alert in nine districts and the city of Izberbash (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA posts multiple videos showing floods, submerged cars, and rockslides/landslides in mountainous regions of Dagestan, further indicating significant natural disaster affecting civilian infrastructure (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for impact on military operations). This environmental factor could impact internal RF logistics and resource allocation for disaster relief. ASTRA also shows severe hailstorms in Dagestan (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports volcanic activity at Klyuchevskaya Sopka on Kamchatka has slightly decreased but eruption continues, with ash emission up to 9km (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is geographically distant and not impacting operations. TASS reports over 50 aftershocks have been recorded on Kamchatka in the past 24 hours (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This indicates ongoing seismic activity, but is geographically distant and not directly impacting military operations.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

Ukrainian Forces:
- Air Defense: Continued high effectiveness against Shahed UAVs in Odesa and all 7 strike UAVs on Kramatorsk/Sloviansk. Monitoring UAV threats in Sumy and Chernihiv. Engaging reconnaissance UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv. Responding to missile danger in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro. Missile over Dnipropetrovsk shot down. One Iskander-K and 16/47 UAVs shot down/suppressed overall. UA Air Force reports 70 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed, including strike drones and drone-imitators out of 100 launched (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for UA claim, MEDIUM for specific BDA/breakdown). Ballistic missile threat from Kursk has been cleared (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UA Air Force reports RF strike UAVs from Kherson Oblast are moving towards Mykolaiv Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports Ukraine is under a massive Shahed attack (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs are moving through northern Sumy Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна posts an updated map of air raid alerts showing broad areas of concern in eastern, southern, and central Ukraine (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RF UAVs are inbound towards Borzna and Sribne in Chernihiv Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new groups of RF strike UAVs inbound towards Donetsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 x UAVs flying towards Добропілля, with a follow-up confirmation of all 6 being shot down (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for drone activity, HIGH for UA interdiction). Николаевский Ванёк reports 12 new UAVs inbound towards Shostka, Sumy Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirms groups of strike UAVs from northern Sumy Oblast, moving past Shostka, Semenivka, and Novgorod-Siverskyi (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Николаевский Ванёк reports "отбой по этим мопедам" (all clear for these mopeds), confirming the end of the previously reported UAV threat to Shostka, Sumy Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs are inbound for Sumy Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues a new alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs are en route to Novomykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 59/71 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for UA claim, MEDIUM for specific breakdown). Оперативний ЗСУ corroborates UA Air Force report of 59/71 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports Ukraine's Air Force states 71 drones (Shahed and imitators) were launched, with 59/71 shot down/suppressed overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for UA claim, MEDIUM for specific breakdown). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat from the south (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Deep Strike/Special Operations: Demonstrated capacity to impact RF infrastructure (Rostov substation, Slavyansk-on-Kuban refinery) and directly hit civilian targets in RF (Rostov-on-Don residential). Causing defensive measures and alerts deep inside RF (Lipetsk Oblast, Sochi, Kaluga, Saratov Airport restrictions, Izhevsk Airport restrictions, Moscow drone attack). UA group ATESh claims responsibility for sabotaging RF logistics near Rostov (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). STERNENKO reports drone attack on UAV assembly workshop in Tatarstan, demonstrating continued deep strike capability against RF military-industrial targets (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). SBU confirmed attack on Shahed storage terminal in Tatarstan (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvnyi ЗСU reports the sinking of the new tugboat "Kapitan Ushakov" in St. Petersburg (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report). New drone attacks in Saratov Oblast, confirmed by UA General Staff, Оперативний ЗСУ, and РБК-Україна, indicate continued deep strike capability against strategic RF targets (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS further confirms the strike on Saratov Oil Refinery, reinforcing the high confidence in this successful deep strike (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video of a successful FPV drone strike by "Black Raven" unit of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade on an RF BM-21 "Grad" MLRS, preventing an attack (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). This demonstrates continued UA effectiveness in counter-battery and disrupting RF indirect fire assets. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video of operators from the 1st Assault Battalion, 92nd OSShBR using FPV drones on fiber optics to target the enemy, resulting in fires and eliminations. This indicates highly effective and advanced UA FPV drone tactics (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). A new report from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms additional FPV drone strikes by "Hart" brigade (border guards) near Vovchansk, utilizing fiber optics to destroy three disguised RF vehicles (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). This indicates wider adoption and effectiveness of advanced FPV drone tactics among UA units. UA Air Force delivered a high-precision bomb strike on an RF battalion command post near Oleshky, resulting in significant casualties among RF command staff (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This demonstrates effective targeting of RF C2 nodes. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video from "FPV Trinity" showing a failed RF evasion of an FPV drone, resulting in an explosion on a vehicle (identified as LAT, CAV, or tank), indicating continued UA drone success and RF vulnerabilities (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). The 77th Airmobile Brigade's drone workshop is reportedly working 24/7 to repair and produce drones, indicating robust internal support for drone operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO posted a video from "DYKI SHERSHNI" (Wild Hornets) showing drone operations with low battery warnings, indicating active and resource-constrained missions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). Satellite imagery from Оперативний ЗСУ shows a UAV strike on an RF logistics hub storing Shaheds, providing BDA for a significant deep strike (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for imagery, MEDIUM for precise location). UA General Staff provides an updated operational report for 16:00, 10 AUG 25 (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UA Su-27 successfully deployed a GBU62 guided bomb against an RF assault concentration near Pokrovsk (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). The 46th Airmobile Brigade DShV ZSU posts aerial footage of successful strikes against RF positions, demonstrating continued offensive capabilities (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). STERNENKO posts video of 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade's "Ronins" unit conducting FPV drone strikes on multiple RF UAZ-452 "Bukhanka" vans and personnel in Zaporizhzhia direction, showing multiple successful strikes (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). This indicates effective tactical FPV drone use for anti-vehicle and anti-personnel operations. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts new video footage of UA FPV drone operations, showing multiple successful strikes against RF personnel and equipment in fields, green zones, and basements (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). GUR drones attacked Lukoil-Ukhtaneft processing plant (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms Ukrainian drones struck Lukoil-Ukhtaneft oil refinery (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a video showing a possible FPV drone engagement with an RF armored vehicle, including a call for donations for drones (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts new satellite imagery confirming one destroyed and one damaged fuel tank at the "Ertan" fuel and lubricants base in Millerovo, following the August 8 attack (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno also reports confirmed transformer damage at the "Zamchalovo" substation from August 1-2 attacks, reinforcing successful UA targeting of energy infrastructure (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). НгП раZVедка posts a video showing drone reconnaissance footage of vehicles and explosions, highlighting the evolving nature of drone warfare (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for specific BDA/context). DeepState posts video of FPV drone engaging RF personnel east of Rusyn Yar (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO posts a video of a tactical drone operation targeting enemy personnel and armored vehicles in a wooded area, showing multiple successful impacts and explosions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts multiple photo reports showing successful fundraising campaigns and delivery of vehicles and equipment, reinforcing UA deep strike and reconnaissance capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video claiming liquidation of "Moscow degenerates" by operators of the 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts satellite imagery analysis suggesting the probable detection of a "Yenisei" radar/SAM system, reportedly hit by GUR, indicating successful targeting of RF air defense (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for analysis, MEDIUM for BDA). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of the 71st Jaeger Brigade DShV attempting to develop success in Sumy Oblast, involving explosions in an industrial area, suggesting continued UA offensive and deep strike actions in border regions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts video of "Hart" brigade drones hunting camouflaged RF vehicles near Vovchansk, utilizing fiber optics, demonstrating continued effective UA FPV deep strike capabilities (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). Два майора posts a video appealing for donations for frontline vehicles, indicating continued grassroots fundraising for UA capabilities (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for impact). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС and Оперативний ЗСУ report the elimination of a Russian propagandist/assault medic, with photos and video (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for UA claim, MEDIUM for specific BDA). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of a shootout between a "saboteur" and Russian police in Arkhangelsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA), confirming continued internal incidents. New ammunition depots in the Bakhmut rear area are nominated for deep strike by long-range precision fires (HIMARS/ATACMS). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports unknown drones attacked Arzamas in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The videos and photos from РБК-Україна provide visual evidence of a fire/explosion in the distance, a building on fire, and a small unidentified fixed-wing aircraft/drone flying in the sky, consistent with drone attack on Arzamas (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for imagery, MEDIUM for specific BDA). STERNENKO posts multiple videos showing damage to a multi-story building (likely an instrument-making plant) in Arzamas, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, with some footage showing an explosion/fire, confirming a successful drone attack (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Other videos from STERNENKO show a small aircraft in flight and a distant explosion/air defense engagement, suggesting continued drone activity in Nizhny Novgorod (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ also posts video showing an explosion on a large building structure and a small aircraft in flight, corroborating the drone attack in Nizhny Novgorod (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video claiming attack on instrument-making plant in Arzamas, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts additional photo messages providing visual BDA of the attack on the instrument-making plant in Arzamas, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for photos, MEDIUM for BDA). The 46th Airmobile Brigade DShV ZSU released drone footage showing the destruction of RF positions, camouflaged equipment, and antennas, demonstrating active UA counter-offensive action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). STERNENKO reports that Ukrainian drones are continuously attacking RF territories (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» posts on drone repair and fundraising (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Ground Forces: Training activities of the 159th OMBR. Successful capture of an RF mobilized soldier. Unit-level initiatives to acquire Starlink and drones indicate strong initiative, but also highlight persistent equipment needs. Forces positioned to defend against TOS-2 enabled assault on Semenivka. General Staff maps show UA forces holding defensive lines and engaging in combat in multiple directions (Vovchansk, Novovasylivka, Pokrovsk, Orykhiv, Kup'yansk). Repelled 8 RF assaults in Kherson direction and 12 in Kursk/Sumy direction (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UA General Staff explicitly states continued control of Dachne, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, refuting RF claims (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The successful breakout of the 92nd Brigade from encirclement near Pokrovsk demonstrates high combat effectiveness and resilience (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UA forces demonstrate amphibious/riverine reconnaissance and patrol capabilities using jet skis, suggesting rapid mobility in aquatic terrain for reconnaissance or patrol. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). 2nd motorized infantry battalion of the 93rd Brigade "Kholodny Yar" continues to inflict heavy losses on the enemy in Bakhmut and Pokrovsk directions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian Sergeant Yuri Kusov was captured in Donetsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message stating that over 10,000 has been collected, but drones are getting more expensive (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (Ukrainian General Staff) posts updated operational information as of 22:00, 10 AUG 25 (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report, MEDIUM for specific details without full text). Николаевский Ванёк reports a fundraising goal was closed in 6 hours and 48 minutes, indicating rapid and successful fundraising efforts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Russian forces have initiated a new, multi-pronged ground offensive into northern Kharkiv Oblast, successfully achieving limited tactical gains and forcing the commitment of Ukrainian reserves. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The identification of elements from the newly formed 44th Army Corps (Leningrad Military District) leading the assault is a new intelligence data point, confirming the commitment of fresh, albeit untested, formations to this axis. Enemy forces have reportedly secured positions within the outlying settlements of Strilecha, Krasne, Pylna, and Borysivka on the Vovchansk Axis. Probing attacks are ongoing toward the town of Lyptsi. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). In the Chasiv Yar direction, no significant ground assaults were reported in the last 24 hours, but activity was limited to platoon-sized probes against the Ivanivske-Klishchiivka line, consistent with final preparations for a larger attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports that UA forces have redeployed units that have not had time to restore combat capability to Tykhe in Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim). Генштаб ЗСУ / General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has released an infographic on approximate enemy combat losses from February 24, 2022, to August 11, 2025, claiming an additional 1000 RF personnel eliminated in the last 24 hours (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ also report an additional 1000 RF personnel eliminated in the last 24 hours (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (Ukrainian General Staff) posts an updated operational information report as of 08:00, August 11, 2025 (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ posts a tactical map presenting current operational information as of 08:00, August 11, 2025 (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). DeepState has updated its map (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Президентська бригада ЗСУ is recruiting medics (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports on a fundraising campaign for the "Rubizh" brigade (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video of two paratroopers from the 7th Airborne Division of Zaporizhzhia appealing for donations for drones and Starlink (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Medical Readiness: Combat medics of GUR conducting mass aerial evacuation of wounded soldiers using a Mi-8 helicopter (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts photos showing interaction with animals as a "psychological relief method for military personnel," indicating focus on soldier well-being and morale (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts video of a rescue operation in a heavily damaged urban environment, likely Zaporizhzhia, showing State Emergency Service personnel and a search and rescue dog working among rubble, indicating ongoing efforts to mitigate civilian casualties (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Сили оборони Півдня України posts videos of emergency responders and search and rescue dogs working in heavily damaged buildings in Zaporizhzhia (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Президентська бригада ЗСУ is recruiting medics (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Overall Morale/Resilience: Олександр Вілкул's daily briefings and posts on local basketball games indicate efforts to maintain morale. Photo exhibition on Chasiv Yar defense boosts morale. Zelensky's latest video address emphasizes independence, dignity, and continued struggle (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO's photo message of a knife raffle from K-2 regiment indicates continued fundraising efforts and a connection between military units and the public (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zelensky's call with Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson, thanking for significant defense support (4 billion USD this year), highlights ongoing international military aid and strengthens morale (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ also reports on Zelensky's call with the Swedish PM (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's photo report on weekly assistance to Defense Forces, including vehicles, drones, and other equipment, demonstrates ongoing public and administrative support for UA forces (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This indicates robust grassroots and regional support mechanisms. Zelenskiy / Official and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 report a "good and substantive conversation" with the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, indicating continued diplomatic efforts to build international support (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна also reports on Zelensky's call with the President of Kazakhstan (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zelenskiy / Official and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also report on a call with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, congratulating him on agreements with Armenia, indicating UA's engagement with broader regional stability and diplomatic efforts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a BILD article headline: "This week could be decisive for the future fate of Ukraine," indicating awareness of high stakes and potentially aiming to galvanize support/morale (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for awareness, LOW for direct impact). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports a delayed "July" collection will occur at 17:00, indicating ongoing public fundraising efforts for military support (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Nikolaevskiy Vanek posts a link to a bank for donations, indicating ongoing public fundraising efforts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports strong progress on fundraising goals, with over half achieved and 1.1 million UAH remaining (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ reports that President Zelensky held a telephone conversation with President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan today (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports Azerbaijan may lift arms embargo on Ukraine if Russia continues attacking Azerbaijani-linked infrastructure (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports that Zelensky has promised a "strong project" concerning combat aviation, potentially alluding to the acquisition of Gripen aircraft, indicating continued efforts to enhance UA Air Force capabilities (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports that Ukraine will continue to receive weapons regardless of the Alaska summit outcome, citing NATO Secretary General Rutte (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatsiya Z (Voenkorы Русской Весны) reports NATO Secretary General Rutte states no final agreement will be reached at the Putin-Trump meeting in Alaska, which aligns with UA's position (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports that 2nd motorized infantry battalion of the 93rd Brigade "Kholodny Yar" is appealing for drone donations, indicating ongoing resource needs despite their effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports on Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko's working visit to Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора posts a video for collecting funds for frontline vehicles, indicating continued grassroots fundraising for UA capabilities (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ukraine will continue to receive weapons regardless of the Trump-Putin summit results, citing Rutte (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports Polish Deputy Prime Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz believes inviting Zelensky to the Trump-Putin meeting would be the best solution (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна posts a photo message with caption from UA Ambassador to the US Oksana Markarova stating US will act from a position of strength in negotiations with Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 and Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (Ukrainian General Staff) have published infographics on estimated RF combat losses, demonstrating commitment to transparency and information dissemination (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo message about Aliyev and Zelensky's phone conversation, likely to frame it within RF IO (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). STERNENKO posts a message calling for a "tax on the extermination of Russians" on Monday (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts video commemorating fallen defenders (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts a photo commemorating fallen defenders (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo commemorating fallen defenders (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Control Measures: UA Air Force "Attention!" alerts for Kyiv persist. UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs are active northern Sumy, eastern Kharkiv, and eastern Dnipropetrovsk (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has declared "All Clear" for air raid (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports an increased threat of kamikaze drone attacks in southern Ukraine, indicating a heightened alert for this region (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UA Air Force reports threat of ballistic weapons from Kursk (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This threat was subsequently cleared (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs are moving through northern Sumy Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна posts an updated map of air raid alerts indicating widespread threats, particularly in eastern, southern, and central Ukraine (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RF UAVs are inbound towards Borzna and Sribne in Chernihiv Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new groups of RF strike UAVs inbound towards Donetsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 x UAVs flying towards Добропілля, with a follow-up confirmation of all 6 being shot down (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for drone activity, HIGH for UA interdiction). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports "All Clear" for air raid (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Igor Artamonov reports red-level "UAV attack threat" declared for Yelets, Yelets MR, Dolgorukovsky MR, Stanovlyansky MO, Izmalkovsky MO (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Николаевский Ванёк reports 12 new UAVs inbound towards Shostka, Sumy Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirms groups of strike UAVs from northern Sumy Oblast, moving past Shostka, Semenivka, and Novgorod-Siverskyi (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Николаевский Ванёк reports "отбой по этим мопедам" (all clear for these mopeds), confirming the end of the previously reported UAV threat to Shostka, Sumy Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Heavy GPS jamming is reported across the northern Kharkiv front, leading to increased UAV losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports "Kovyor" plan has been cancelled in Penza Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Nizhny Novgorod airport has temporarily suspended flights (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports restrictions in Kaluga airport lifted (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues a new alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs are en route to Novomykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Igor Artamonov reports the red-level "UAV attack threat" for Lipetsk Oblast has been cancelled (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Kaluga airport (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports restrictions on air traffic at Nizhny Novgorod airport have been lifted (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports drone safety measures in place in multiple RF Oblasts including Kaluga, Smolensk, Tula, Moscow, Oryol, Bryansk, Rostov, Lipetsk, and Tatarstan (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat from the south (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capabilities:
- Air-to-Ground: Continued high capacity for massed UAV (Shahed, FPV) and missile strikes (Iskander-K, ballistic). Persistent use of UMPK glide bombs (FAB-250/500/3000), allowing standoff attacks on fortified positions. Confirmation of FAB-3000 use in Konstantinovka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts video of a FAB-3000 strike destroying a bridge in Konstantinovka (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). Воин DV posts video of "FABs on Iskra," indicating continued aerial bombardment (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). Operatsiya Z (Voenkorы Русской Весны) claims "masterful work" by RF drone operators in the Pokrovsk direction, suggesting continued FPV drone effectiveness for RF (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a video with the caption "Stick the enemy in the pipe," which could indicate FPV drone attacks on specific targets or positions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video claiming RF "Geraniums" (Shahed UAVs) attacked the railway station in Synelnykove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming continued long-range drone strike capabilities (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). WarGonzo posts a video and photos claiming "Ukraine armed 'Kukuruznik' with missiles," referring to agricultural biplanes. This is likely RF IO to exaggerate UA capabilities or justify its own use of converted civilian aircraft, but it also indicates RF awareness of potential UA adaptations of civilian aircraft for military purposes (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO, LOW for verification of UA capability). Воин DV posts a video showing RF drone operators of the 57th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade "clearing the sky of Zaporizhzhia of enemy heavy copters," indicating RF counter-UAS capabilities (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). MoD Russia posts a video titled "Drills of real military specialists," which appears to show military personnel engaged in training activities, possibly related to drone operations or air defense, but lacks specific details (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent, LOW for specific capability). TASS reports "Kalashnikov" has showcased the "Granat-4" UAV with a laser designator, indicating RF's continued development of advanced reconnaissance and targeting drones (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report, MEDIUM for operational deployment). TASS reports "Kalashnikov" is supplying a drone capable of 20 days of flight to the "special operation," indicating advanced long-endurance ISR capabilities (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Воин DV posts video claiming "operators of the 218th Guards Tank Regiment of the 5th Army Group 'Vostok' destroy enemy manpower, materiel, and heavy drones in the Zaporizhzhia direction." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of RF publishing footage of "Shaheds" deploying PTM-3 anti-tank mines on roads, indicating a new and dangerous RF tactical adaptation of loitering munitions for mine laying (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, HIGH for new capability). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS corroborates RF use of Shaheds for mining roads with anti-tank mines (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video that appears to be thermal imaging footage from a drone, showing a sniper silhouette, vehicle convoy, and what appears to be an ATGM firing with secondary explosions. The text suggests RF is using Shaheds to deploy anti-tank mines on roads (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for specific BDA; HIGH for confirmed new method of mine laying). STERNENKO posts video of RF publishing footage of "Shaheds" deploying PTM-3 anti-tank mines on roads (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad's new video (010204Z AUG 25) shows RF 144th Division drones effectively destroying three enemy vehicles with infantry, indicating continued RF drone effectiveness in combined arms operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video/RF claim, MEDIUM for BDA). РБК-Україна posts videos and photos consistent with a drone attack, fire, and explosion in Arzamas, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, indicating continued RF vulnerability to deep strike (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports one person died and two were injured in a UAV attack in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad corroborates one killed, two injured, and damage to an industrial enterprise in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad reiterates that "Kalashnikov" has unveiled the Granat-4 UAV with a laser designator (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports RF forces hit a UA S-300V SAM system launch position near Vorozhba, Sumy Oblast, using a Geran-2 UAV, with video evidence (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). Два майора posts video of a "Geranium" strike in Bilozerske, Donetsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). Старше Эдды posts video of 144th Motorized Rifle Division drone operators in combat (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Ground Offensive: Demonstrated intent to conduct large-scale mechanized assaults (Semenivka/Avdiivka sector) supported by new systems (TOS-2, EW). Adaptation efforts include "turtle tanks." Sustained infantry assaults, often after heavy preparatory fire. Use of tactical vehicles (motorcycles) for reconnaissance or rapid movement in contested areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts a new map of the Krasnoarmeysk direction, indicating current battlefield geometry and likely RF movements (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for map, MEDIUM for specific gains). Colonelcassad posts video of an alleged enemy breakthrough attempt in Bryansk Oblast, depicting soldiers moving through a destroyed urban landscape and an explosion, which could be part of a ground assault or a counter-insurgency operation (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video). The new photo message from Сливочный каприз dated 10.08.25 concerning Krasnoarmeysk - Orekhovo indicates continued ground operations and mapping efforts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad reports RF forces entered the outskirts of Shandrigholovo on the Krasnyy Lyman direction (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM, RF claim). New video from Воин DV shows a destroyed RF 122mm 2S1 "Gvozdika" Self-Propelled Artillery system in a wooded area, likely BDA from UA counter-battery fire (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). Colonelcassad posts new tactical maps of the South-Donetsk and Novopavlovskoye directions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for maps, MEDIUM for specific details). Colonelcassad's claim of new RF advances in Novo Shakhove, Ivanivka, Pankivka, Vilne, and Kucheriv Yar, and positions in Zolotyy Kolodez, suggests continued, albeit unverified, ground offensive capabilities (CONFIDENCE: LOW). Z комитет + карта СВО posts new photo messages and tactical analysis for the Kupyansk direction (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for map, MEDIUM for specifics). TASS reports RF paratroopers destroyed a UA HMMWV near Podolskoye, Donetsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). Воин DV posts a video showing burning NATO equipment, special forces operations, and destruction of the enemy in hot spots (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). TASS reports RF are actively advancing in the Velikonovoselkovskoye direction in DNR, increasing pressure on UA forces, as stated by Pushilin (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim). Pushilin reports RF forces advancing in Poltavka and Rusin Yar directions in Konstantinovka, despite difficult fighting (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim). Pushilin claims RF forces destroyed the main AFU stronghold in Shandrigholovo (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim). Colonelcassad posts a photo message claiming RF forces advanced near Katerynivka and Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a video showcasing a rugged, off-road vehicle (UTV) with tactical gear, suggesting capabilities for operations in challenging environments (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for military application). Военкор Котенок posts a photo message captioned "South-Donetsk direction" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for map/photo, MEDIUM for specific details without further context). Военкор Котенок posts a new map regarding the Krasnyy Lyman direction, indicating RF operational focus in this area (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for map, MEDIUM for specific details). Два майора posts videos depicting ground targets and a military vehicle, suggesting continued RF aerial reconnaissance and possible engagement in the Kherson AO (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for videos, MEDIUM for BDA). Russian forces have initiated a new, multi-pronged ground offensive into northern Kharkiv Oblast, successfully achieving limited tactical gains and forcing the commitment of Ukrainian reserves. This offensive is being led by elements of the newly formed 44th Army Corps (Leningrad Military District). They have reportedly secured positions within the outlying settlements of Strilecha, Krasne, Pylna, and Borysivka on the Vovchansk Axis. Probing attacks are ongoing toward the town of Lyptsi. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). In the Chasiv Yar direction, no significant ground assaults were reported in the last 24 hours, but activity was limited to platoon-sized probes against the Ivanivske-Klishchiivka line, consistent with final preparations for a larger attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Andrey Marochko claims Kyiv lost nearly 4,000 soldiers and mercenaries in battles near Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) over the week (CONFIDENCE: LOW). TASS reports that UA forces have redeployed units that have not had time to restore combat capability to Tykhe in Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 provides a morning summary of military operations as of August 11, 2025, from an RF perspective, confirming ongoing tactical actions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора posts a photo message and tactical map focusing on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, indicating continued RF operational focus in this area (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for map, MEDIUM for specific details). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message showing a Russian Ka-52 "Alligator" attack helicopter, indicating continued use of rotary-wing assets for ground support or reconnaissance (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for image, MEDIUM for specific mission). WarGonzo posts a frontline summary for the morning of August 11, 2025, with tactical maps for Kharkiv, Pokrovsk, and Krasnyy Lyman directions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for maps, MEDIUM for specific details). TASS reports a dugout with personnel of UA's 5th Kyiv Assault Brigade was destroyed in DNR (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). Два майора posts a video showcasing a special purpose marine detachment conducting training, including vehicle operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- EW: Confirmed deployment of Pole-21 EW system, posing a threat to GPS-guided munitions and UAS. New RF milblogger video shows a drone training facility, indicating continued investment in drone warfare capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad reports on the "Dome of Donbass" EW system preventing 799 "terrorist attacks" (presumably drone attacks) over the week, indicating continued and possibly enhanced RF EW capabilities in occupied territories (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Colonelcassad and Kotsnews posted videos from the 18th Combined Arms Army's aerial observation post, part of the "Dnipro" group of forces, which reportedly shows the density of Ukrainian drone attacks on RF positions in the zone of the special operation, indicating RF EW capabilities for detection and monitoring (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for RF claims of density). Confirmed deployment and effective use of advanced Pole-21 EW systems in the Kharkiv AO is reported, resulting in heavy GPS jamming across the northern Kharkiv front and increased UAV losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports RF forces destroyed a UA UAV control point near Verolyubovka (Konstantinovka direction), with video evidence showing an EW station targeted (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Artillery: Continued use of various artillery systems, including mortars (e.g., North Korean 140mm M1987 in Sumy), MLRS (Grad). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports RF shelling destroyed 31 private houses in Shakhove, Pokrovsk Raion (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for claim, MEDIUM for BDA/attribution). This indicates continued reliance on indiscriminate shelling. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video allegedly showing RF artillery strikes on an urban area at night, with claims of successful hits, implying continued aggressive use of indirect fire (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). Басурин о главном posts about a new broadcast on "Komsomolskaya Pravda-Novorossiya" radio, which is likely part of their ongoing information operations, possibly including artillery propaganda (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for IO intent). Serhiy Lysak reports RF used heavy artillery against Nikopol Raion (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report, MEDIUM for BDA). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posted a video showing an aerial perspective of a destroyed urban area in Zaporizhzhia, with clear evidence of recent bombardment, including a significant explosion captured in the footage (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for specific BDA/attribution). This confirms RF's heavy bombardment capabilities. In Chasiv Yar, artillery and rocket fire have remained steady, focusing on degrading Ukrainian defensive fortifications in the "Canal" microdistrict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Serhiy Lysak reports RF used artillery against Nikopol Raion (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Naval: Active Black Sea Fleet; however, recent sinking of a tugboat in St. Petersburg highlights potential systemic issues or UA deep strike capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The mine explosion in Zatoka, Odesa Oblast, points to a continued, albeit indirect, naval threat to Ukrainian coastal areas, likely from drifting sea mines (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора posted a video showing a military-style boat operating in a maritime environment, possibly near Crimea, indicating continued RF naval presence and training (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for specific context). TASS reports that RF MoD claims their forces blew up a UA boat in Kleban-Byk reservoir, Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Drone Countermeasures: RF claims high effectiveness in countering UA "Baba Yagas" drones and UAV control points. TASS claims RF Southern Group of Forces destroyed 15 UA UAV control points in the past day (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). TASS reports Southern Group of Forces destroyed a UA UAV control point near Katerynivka, and a UA communications node near Fedorivka (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). RF MoD claims 121 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed or intercepted overnight across Russian regions and the Azov Sea (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim, LOW for independent verification of quantity). TASS claims 15 UA UAVs destroyed over RF regions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim, LOW for independent verification). Воин DV posts a video showing RF drone operators of the 57th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade "clearing the sky of Zaporizhzhia of enemy heavy copters," indicating RF has dedicated anti-UAS units (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). Kadyrov_95 claims two UA UAVs were detected and destroyed by RF air defense in Chechen Republic, indicating RF's capability to detect and engage long-range UAVs deep within its territory (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM, RF claim). TASS reports RF MoD shot down 26 Ukrainian UAVs over RF regions within two hours (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Governor Bogomaz reports 11 enemy aircraft-type UAVs were destroyed over Bryansk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). AV БогомаZ further reports that seven enemy aircraft-type UAVs were destroyed by RF MoD air defense over Bryansk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports drone safety measures (Kovyor plan) are implemented in multiple Russian oblasts (Vladimir, Ivanovo, Nizhny Novgorod, Penza, Ryazan, Bryansk, Smolensk, Kaluga, Tula, Rostov) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts satellite imagery analysis suggesting the probable detection of a "Yenisei" radar/SAM system, reportedly hit by GUR, indicating successful targeting of RF air defense (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for analysis, MEDIUM for BDA). TASS reports 27 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over RF regions within three hours (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim). ASTRA corroborates 27 UAVs shot down over Tula Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). AV БогомаZ reports Ukrainian terrorists attacked Strativa village in Starodubsky municipal district with a kamikaze drone (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports RF Air Defense shot down another UAV flying towards Moscow (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports another UAV flying towards Moscow has been destroyed (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports a series of explosions near Moscow, indicating the enemy is attacking the capital (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim). TASS reports "Kovyor" plan has been cancelled in Penza Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Nizhny Novgorod airport has temporarily suspended flights due to the "Kovyor" plan, suggesting active drone defense (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports restrictions in Kaluga airport lifted (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad reports several dozen drones were shot down across various regions of Russia overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Igor Artamonov reports the red-level "UAV attack threat" for Lipetsk Oblast has been cancelled (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports RF MoD shot down 32 Ukrainian UAVs overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ corroborates RF MoD claim of 32 UAVs shot down overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). AV БогомаZ reports RF PVO shot down five enemy aircraft-type UAVs over Bryansk Oblast last night (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports RF MoD shot down 11 Ukrainian UAVs over Crimea, Nizhny Novgorod, and Belgorod Oblasts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z reports RF PVO shot down 46 Ukrainian UAVs over 11 regions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim, LOW for independent verification of quantity).
- Logistics & Sustainment: Evidence of persistent internal logistical challenges despite external aid (e.g., North Korean mortar, fundraising for Starlink/drones for 7th Airborne Assault Division units in Zaporizhzhia). Internal security efforts against corruption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports former Deputy Head of the Support Center under the Russian Ministry of Economic Development is accused of embezzling 28 million rubles for a state contract (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This indicates continued internal issues with corruption, impacting resource allocation. Два майора posts a video thanking volunteers for providing 1800 ready meals (canned porridges/stews) for the Naval Special Purpose Detachment "Espanola" defending Crimea and Sevastopol, highlighting ongoing reliance on volunteer efforts for military sustainment (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Fighterbomber, an RF milblogger, is soliciting donations for flashlights for RF aviators, indicating continued reliance on external support for even basic equipment (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts videos appealing for donations of body armor, helmets, and medical supplies for the "Wolves" brigade, confirming RF units' reliance on external support for basic equipment (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Fighterbomber posts "Триста!" which is Russian military slang for "wounded," often used as a request for medical evacuation, indicating continued RF casualties (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF slang, LOW for specific BDA without context). TASS reports a policeman died and another was wounded during the arrest of an arsonist setting railway equipment on fire in Arkhangelsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This highlights internal sabotage/disruption to RF logistics. Операция Z, ASTRA, and Военкор Котенок corroborate the incident in Arkhangelsk Oblast, specifying that the arsonist was a suspected "contractor" of Ukrainian special services and opened fire on law enforcement during detention (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ posts photos and video of the Arkhangelsk railway sabotage, suggesting continued internal disruption to RF logistics (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a video reviewing a "great suitcase for business trips and vacations," likely an IO effort to project normalcy, but also potentially a subtle signal of readiness or mobility for operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for IO intent). Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message with the caption "I don't know how the arrest of 4th-grade carpenter Evgeny Vasilievich will help end the war. Good will prevail!" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). In Chasiv Yar, IMINT and SIGINT indicate a significant logistical build-up, including the establishment of at least three new ammunition depots within 15km of the Bakhmut frontline. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports former Deputy Governor of Samara Oblast, Gennady Gendin, has been accused of embezzling approximately 100 million rubles (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This indicates continued internal issues with high-level corruption within RF civilian administration, which can indirectly impact resource allocation and public trust in governance. TASS reports that active use of drones for goods delivery could begin in two to three years, as stated by the Minister of Transport (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This implies a future potential for logistics delivery via UAVs. TASS reports a man has been detained in Blagoveshchensk, Amur Oblast, for preparing sabotage on the Trans-Siberian Railway (Transsib) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a significant internal security incident targeting critical logistics infrastructure.
- Sniper Operations: Colonelcassad posts photos of snipers from "Zapad" Group preparing new Orsis T-5000 and SVL-5 "Opustoshitel" rifles, indicating continued investment in special operations and precision engagements (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO). РБК-Україна reports RF is conducting sniper training programs for children in Luhansk Oblast, which is a significant ethical violation and indication of RF's intent to militarize occupied territories (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report).
- Long-Range Loitering Munitions: Colonelcassad reports China has started serial production of the long-range loitering munition PD-2900 (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report). This indicates potential future capabilities for RF if they acquire these systems, adding to their deep strike arsenal. TASS reports "Kalashnikov" is supplying a drone capable of 20 days of flight to the "special operation" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This indicates a significant long-endurance ISR capability.
- Strategic Missile Systems: RF Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov states Russia has "other latest weapons, besides the Oreshnik missile system," asserting that Russia has "not lost time" and implying a continued arms development and potentially new strategic capabilities (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF statement, LOW for verification of specific new systems). Alex Parker Returns echoes Ryabkov's statement, specifically mentioning "Akhmat special forces" as the "other latest weapon," which is likely an IO attempt to praise specific units rather than a factual military capability (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Kotsnews also reports on the Russian Foreign Ministry's statement that Russia has "other latest weapons, besides Oreshnik," reinforcing this information operation (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a video with the caption "Stick the enemy in the pipe," which could indicate FPV drone attacks on specific targets or positions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video claiming RF "Geraniums" (Shahed UAVs) attacked the railway station in Synelnykove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming continued long-range drone strike capabilities (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). WarGonzo posts a video and photos claiming "Ukraine armed 'Kukuruznik' with missiles," referring to agricultural biplanes. This is likely RF IO to exaggerate UA capabilities or justify its own use of converted civilian aircraft, but it also indicates RF awareness of potential UA adaptations of civilian aircraft for military purposes (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO, LOW for verification of UA capability). Воин DV posts a video showing RF drone operators of the 57th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade "clearing the sky of Zaporizhzhia of enemy heavy copters," indicating RF counter-UAS capabilities (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). MoD Russia posts a video titled "Drills of real military specialists," which appears to show military personnel engaged in training activities, possibly related to drone operations or air defense, but lacks specific details (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent, LOW for specific capability). TASS reports "Kalashnikov" has showcased the "Granat-4" UAV with a laser designator, indicating RF's continued development of advanced reconnaissance and targeting drones (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report, MEDIUM for operational deployment). Воин DV posts video claiming "operators of the 218th Guards Tank Regiment of the 5th Army Group 'Vostok' destroy enemy manpower, materiel, and heavy drones in the Zaporizhzhia direction." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of RF publishing footage of "Shaheds" deploying PTM-3 anti-tank mines on roads, indicating a new and dangerous RF tactical adaptation of loitering munitions for mine laying (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, HIGH for new capability). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS corroborates RF use of Shaheds for mining roads with anti-tank mines (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video that appears to be thermal imaging footage from a drone, showing a sniper silhouette, vehicle convoy, and what appears to be an ATGM firing with secondary explosions. The text suggests RF is using Shaheds to deploy anti-tank mines on roads (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for specific BDA; HIGH for confirmed new method of mine laying). STERNENKO posts video of RF publishing footage of "Shaheds" deploying PTM-3 anti-tank mines on roads (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Small Arms Modernization: TASS reports the presentation of new shortened and small-sized AK-15K and AK-15SK assault rifles, with the Ministry of Defense forming a state defense order for 2025. This indicates RF's continued investment in modernizing infantry small arms (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Tank Losses: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS cites military analyst Richard Vereker claiming a trend of decreasing Russian tank losses on the front, which if accurate, could indicate a shift in RF tactics to conserve armor or improved protective measures (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
- Cyber Warfare: Рыбарь posts a photo message claiming "Russian cyber expertise for Africa," which could indicate RF's efforts to expand its cyber capabilities and influence globally, potentially including military applications (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO).
- Military Training: Colonelcassad posts video showing a RF soldier in full camouflage, with text "Victory will be ours," likely part of a training or morale-boosting effort (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Colonelcassad posts video of a RF soldier from the "1st Volunteer Reconnaissance Battalion Wolves" recounting his combat experience and return to unit after injury, part of an IO effort to humanize and glorify RF service (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts video of an ATV with cylindrical objects, and an explosion in the distance, likely part of an RF training or operational demonstration video to project capability (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video). Colonelcassad posts a photo message titled "Historical reference," which appears to be a form of historical revisionism or IO, but its direct military significance is low (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is inviting soldiers to send videos and photos from forward positions to their bot, suggesting continued RF efforts to collect and disseminate content for training or propaganda (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message showing the Ministry of Defense's emblem, indicating official content (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора posts a video showcasing a special purpose marine detachment conducting training (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Motorized Infantry: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video of a burning military motorcycle with a train in the background, indicating RF use of light vehicles for reconnaissance or rapid movement, and their vulnerability to UA action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for RF capability/BDA).
- New Equipment: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo messages depicting Russian paratroopers with a military vehicle (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). The images show several soldiers, likely paratroopers, in military attire next to a tracked armored vehicle, possibly a BMD (Boyevaya Mashina Desanta - Airborne Combat Vehicle) variant, indicating an operational or training context. The presence of these vehicles and personnel reinforces the ongoing deployment and use of airborne forces. No specific new equipment is immediately identifiable beyond standard airborne combat vehicles and personnel gear. Colonelcassad posts video of the flight of a new Chinese KJ-3000 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft, based on the Y-20 military transport aircraft with WS-20 engines (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This indicates advanced Chinese military aviation development with potential long-term implications for global power projection and technology transfer. Colonelcassad also posts a video of a military transport aircraft, likely an Il-76, suggesting ongoing logistical or transport operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for specific mission). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a photo message of military personnel and a vehicle, likely part of a morale-boosting or recruitment effort (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent).
Intentions:
- Territorial Control: Primary intention remains securing full control of Donetsk Oblast, particularly the Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar/Kramatorsk axes. The new map of the Krasnoarmeysk direction and claims of drone effectiveness in Pokrovsk reinforce this focus. They will leverage heavy aerial bombardment (FABs) and FPV drone swarms to attrit Ukrainian defenders and attempt to clear the path for ground advances. Significant effort will be placed on securing identified settlements (e.g., Novo Shakhove, Ivanivka, Pankivka, Vilne, Kucheriv Yar, Zolotyy Kolodez). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The continued focus on Sieversk by RF milbloggers also suggests sustained pressure there. The presence of RF sapper units near Konstantinovka suggests continued efforts to clear obstacles for advances. RF will continue to attempt to consolidate control in key settlements like Shandrigholovo and Yablonovka. The new map of Novokhatske reinforces RF focus on this settlement (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Pushilin's statement about Sloviansk clearly indicates RF strategic intent on the Sloviansk direction (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports RF forces are actively advancing in the Velikonovoselkovskoye direction in DNR, increasing pressure on UA forces, as stated by Pushilin (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim). WP reports that the Kremlin does not want to give up Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts because of the corridor to Crimea, reinforcing RF intent to retain captured territories, particularly for land bridge security (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UA General Staff refuting RF claims on Dachne, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicates RF intent to spread disinformation about territorial gains (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z (Voenkorы Русской Весны) corroborates the WP report that Russia will not give up Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in exchange for Donbas, emphasizing RF's strategic intent to retain the land bridge to Crimea (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad's new maps for South-Donetsk and Novopavlovskoye directions indicate continued RF intent to push along these axes. Colonelcassad's claims of advances in Novo Shakhove and other settlements reinforce RF's continued intent to expand territorial control in Donetsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF intent). Colonelcassad's claim of encircling UA forces at Kleban-Byk is an RF IO attempt to assert territorial gains (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). RF continues to map the Kupyansk direction, indicating ongoing intent for operations there (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kotsnews claiming a suppressed UA counter-offensive in Sumy suggests RF intent to prevent any UA advances in border regions (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Pushilin's latest statement on RF advances in Poltavka and Rusin Yar further serves to exaggerate RF gains. Pushilin's claim of destroying a UA stronghold in Shandrigholovo also aims to project RF effectiveness. Colonelcassad's photo message claiming advances near Katerynivka and Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) indicates continued RF intent to seize territory in the Toretsk direction (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF intent). Военкор Котенок posts a photo message captioned "South-Donetsk direction" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for map/photo, MEDIUM for specific details without further context). Военкор Котенок posts a new map regarding the Krasnyy Lyman direction, indicating RF operational focus in this area (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for map, MEDIUM for specific details). RF's intent in Kharkiv is to consolidate gains in northern Kharkiv Oblast, focusing on capturing Vovchansk and expanding the buffer zone. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This offensive is assessed to be an operational-level fixing action to draw UA reserves from Donbas, creating favorable conditions for their main effort against Chasiv Yar. In Chasiv Yar, RF intends to launch a major ground assault within 48-72 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's morning summary indicates continued intent for territorial gains (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The tactical map posted by Два майора on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction confirms RF intent to maintain focus on this axis (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). WarGonzo's frontline summary confirms RF intent for continued operations across multiple axes (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zvиздец Мангусту's assessment of the Kupyansk direction confirms RF intent to pursue gains and disrupt UA logistics (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports RF forces have dislodged UA forces from positions in administrative buildings of the Krasnolimanskaya mine, Donetsk (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
- Degrade UA Capabilities: Continue to target UA military personnel, equipment (mechanized assets, artillery, UAV control points), and critical infrastructure (oil depots, energy infrastructure). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The confirmed UA strike on Saratov Oil Refinery indicates RF's vulnerability in this area, but also their intent to protect and potentially repair such assets (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF continues to conduct FAB strikes, implying intent to degrade UA positions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports RF has sharply increased kamikaze drone attacks in southern Ukraine, indicating an intention to overwhelm air defenses and inflict damage in the region (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The confirmed RF strikes on a UA UAV control point and communications node indicate intent to degrade UA C2 and drone operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Continued shelling of civilian areas like Shakhove reflects an intent to disrupt civilian life and infrastructure (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The alleged drone attacks on Chechen Republic indicate RF's intent to counter UA deep strike capabilities. RF strikes on Zaporizhzhia's transportation infrastructure, specifically the bus station and residential buildings, caused casualties, now reported at 20 wounded (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF strikes on Nikopol Raion with FPV drones and heavy artillery demonstrate continued intent to degrade UA's logistical capabilities and civilian morale (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS posts a video claiming RF paratroopers destroyed a UA HMMWV near Podolskoye, Donetsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/intent). RF intent to target railway infrastructure is confirmed by the Arkhangelsk incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF's consistent reporting on destroying UA UAVs (e.g., 14 drones in 2 hours) highlights their intent to counter UA deep strike capabilities (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF is actively monitoring UA drone activity in the Southern direction, indicating intent to counter UA UAS (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kotsnews's argument that RF should continue destroying Azerbaijani oil/gas business in Ukraine, despite threats of arms embargo lifting, implies an RF intent to prioritize the destruction of specific energy infrastructure over diplomatic concerns (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Воин DV posts video claiming "operators of the 218th Guards Tank Regiment of the 5th Army Group 'Vostok' destroy enemy manpower, materiel, and heavy drones in the Zaporizhzhia direction." This indicates continued RF intent to attrit UA forces and UAS (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/intent). Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report RF is using Shaheds to deploy anti-tank mines on roads, indicating an intent to inflict casualties and disrupt UA movement with a new, dangerous method (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO posts video of RF publishing footage of "Shaheds" deploying PTM-3 anti-tank mines on roads, which aligns with RF intent to disrupt UA movement (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports 2 people died and 3 wounded in Tula Oblast due to drone attacks, indicating RF intent to continue targeting (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). AV БогомаZ reports Ukrainian terrorists attacked Strativa village in Starodubsky municipal district with a kamikaze drone (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a woman was wounded after a downed UAV fell in Bryansk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a man was wounded in a kamikaze drone attack in Bryansk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports a series of explosions near Moscow, indicating the enemy is attacking the capital, implying successful UA drone strikes (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/intent). RF's temporary suspension of flights at Nizhny Novgorod airport following a drone attack in Arzamas indicates their intent to prioritize air defense and security measures against deep strike threats (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports one person killed and two injured in a UAV attack in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad corroborates one killed, two injured, and damage to an industrial enterprise in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports RF forces destroyed a UA UAV control point near Verolyubovka (Konstantinovka direction) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This confirms RF intent to degrade UA C2 and drone operations. TASS reports RF forces hit a UA S-300V SAM system launch position near Vorozhba, Sumy Oblast, using a Geran-2 UAV (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). TASS reports a dugout with personnel of UA's 5th Kyiv Assault Brigade was destroyed in DNR (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA).
- Psychological Warfare: Maintain a high tempo of information operations to demoralize UA forces and population, influence international opinion, and pressure Kyiv into concessions. This includes framing UA as aggressors, exaggerating UA losses, and pushing narratives of internal dissent within Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns uses derogatory language ("military dictator Zelensky") while reporting on CNN's claim of Zelensky potentially being in Alaska, aiming to delegitimize UA leadership and undermine his diplomatic standing (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Operatsiya Z (Voenkorы Русской Весны) reports on Zelensky's alleged presence in Alaska as an attempt to "shine," further attempting to diminish his diplomatic standing (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). TASS quotes French politician Philippo stating that the EU/UK declaration on pressing Russia shows their desire to continue the conflict, framing Western allies as warmongers (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Alex Parker Returns frames Putin's call with Tajikistan's President Rahmon as a demonstration of RF's diplomatic standing and influence, with Rahmon supporting a "long-term settlement" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). The Coordination Staff for Treatment of Prisoners of War reports Russia is preparing a new phase of an information campaign to discredit Ukraine's top political leadership and the topic of prisoner exchanges (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a direct intelligence warning of impending RF IO. Colonelcassad posts videos of alleged "voluntary mobilization" in Ukraine, showing forceful detainment and physical altercations, clearly an RF information operation aimed at depicting coerced mobilization and undermining UA legitimacy and morale (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Alex Parker Returns posts an appeal to "endlessly watch how the TCC (UA military enlistment centers) quickly pack up Khokhly (derogatory term for Ukrainians)," accompanied by a video depicting a forced apprehension, clearly an RF information operation designed to demoralize UA and portray coercion in mobilization (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Alex Parker Returns posts a comment from "Iron Dimon" (Dmitry Medvedev) suggesting sending US special forces to Kyiv to destroy "narcotic mercenaries" and shoot into government buildings, framed as a " brilliant anti-terrorist operation." This is a highly inflammatory RF information operation aimed at demonizing UA leadership and potentially justifying aggressive actions, while also sowing discord regarding US military involvement (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Alex Parker Returns posts a video of Vladimir Zhirinovsky, a deceased ultra-nationalist politician, with the caption "But there was one who didn't keep silent." This is a clear RF information operation attempting to invoke Zhirinovsky's past aggressive rhetoric and prophetic statements to legitimize current RF actions and narratives, potentially targeting a domestic audience (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Alex Parker Returns also posts a video with a highly inflammatory caption regarding the Odesa mine incident, claiming UA civilians "for fun" swam on a mined beach, resulting in deaths. This is a deliberate dehumanization and blame-shifting tactic (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports on a "language scandal" in Lviv, claiming a local demanded Kharkiv residents not speak Russian. This is an RF information operation attempting to sow discord within Ukraine and portray it as discriminatory (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Colonelcassad posts about "fake" electronic conscription notices in Russia, indicating RF efforts to control narratives around mobilization and reassure its population (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts a video mocking an opposition figure (likely Belarusian Tikhanovsky), calling him a "wandering artist" who will prepare a "new strike." This is an new RF information operation to discredit and mock perceived opposition figures and their efforts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). STERNENKO posts a photo of a deceased RF soldier in a toilet with a caption suggesting he "died in the toilet. Literally." While from a UA source, this reflects the grim reality of casualties and could be used in IO to demoralize the enemy (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for the photo and UA caption, MEDIUM for broad IO impact without further context). Colonelcassad posts a statement attributed to Klitschko claiming UA soldiers left Bakhmut and Kursk. This is a likely RF information operation attempting to spread false narratives about UA withdrawals and territorial losses (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Alex Parker Returns amplifies this claim, adding a highly inflammatory caption about "Khokhly" and a "sudden turn" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Север.Реалии posts commentary suggesting "Russian authorities needed to simulate a small civil war. To portray that there are conditional Westerners-human rights activists-liberals, and there is the people. And what will happen if you set one against the other," indicating RF's intent to create internal divisions and sow societal unrest, potentially relevant to IO against Ukraine (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for the observation of RF intent to create societal division, MEDIUM for its direct application to current military IO against Ukraine). Операция Z posts an RF IO claiming "Euro-psychos in hysteria" over Putin-Trump meeting, accusing EU leaders of sabotaging peace efforts due to desire for war (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Alex Parker Returns posted an image with a caption suggesting that UA and Azerbaijani presidents condemned RF strikes on SOCAR oil depot and a gas compressor station, with Baku calling strikes "targeted." This is a factual report, but RF IO is likely to downplay or counter such international condemnation (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Басурин о главном posts that "Western leaders are trying to dictate terms to Russia: Moscow must give a resolute 'no'!" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a clear RF IO to reject Western diplomatic pressure and portray strength. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts a video with the caption "Ukrainians are tired of war" quoting Klitschko hoping for a diplomatic solution, an RF IO attempting to portray internal Ukrainian weakness and desire for peace on RF terms (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports that Trump's social media chat bot named Obama the best president, which is an RF IO attempt to sow discord or mock US politics (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports a new statement from US Vice President Vance regarding a "territory exchange" between Ukraine and RF, which is a new and concerning narrative being amplified by RF media. This is immediately countered by US Ambassador to NATO, Whitaker (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for the reports, MEDIUM for the specific veracity of Vance's statement without broader context, HIGH for the counter by Whitaker). TASS quotes US Vice President Vance stating that contacts between Putin and Zelensky before the RF-US summit would not be productive, an RF IO to control diplomatic narratives (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO). TASS further quotes Vice President Vance stating the upcoming Putin-Trump negotiations are a "significant breakthrough for American diplomacy," which is a clear RF IO to legitimize and elevate the importance of the summit, implying RF leverage (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO). Два майора, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and РБК-Україна are amplifying a quote from US Vice President Vance: "We are ending the funding of the war in Ukraine. We want to achieve a peaceful settlement of this conflict," which is a highly significant RF IO aimed at undermining Western support and morale in Ukraine (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO, MEDIUM for veracity of Vance's full statement without broader context). РБК-Україна quotes US Ambassador to NATO Whitaker explicitly countering the "territory exchange" concept, stating "No large pieces or areas of territory that have not been fought for or earned on the battlefield will simply be given away." This is a crucial counter-IO from a US official (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операція Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) is amplifying Vance's statement that Putin and Zelensky meeting before Trump is "not productive," reinforcing the RF narrative of controlling diplomatic channels (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO). TASS reports that Trump seeks to end the financing of the conflict in Ukraine, quoting Vice President JD Vance. This is a significant RF information operation aimed at undermining Western resolve and support for Ukraine, and potentially signaling a shift in US policy (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent, MEDIUM for the full context and veracity of Vance's statement). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition amplifies the narrative of a long queue for Putin-Trump negotiations, indicating RF's intent to project the importance and desirability of such talks for the US, positioning Russia as the sought-after party (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Старше Эдды posted an advertisement for a "Gelick" (Mercedes-Benz G-Wagen) and iPhone 16 Pro lottery, indicating RF milbloggers are increasingly leveraging consumerism in their IO to project normalcy and potentially fundraise (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts a video quoting US Senator Graham on "territory exchanges" between Ukraine and Russia, indicating RF's intent to amplify Western statements that suggest potential concessions from Ukraine (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent, MEDIUM for the full context of Graham's statement). НгП раZVедка posts an IO mocking Ukrainian protests compared to Belarusian stability, attempting to delegitimize Ukrainian civic action and sow discord (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). TASS reports Dutch PM Rutte stated that factual control of territories by Russia must be recognized in negotiations, but not legally fixed. This is a significant RF IO attempt to legitimize its territorial gains while maintaining a veneer of diplomatic flexibility (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent, MEDIUM for full context of Rutte's statement). НгП раZVедка posts a photo message with a highly negative caption regarding Azerbaijani President Aliyev, suggesting hostility towards Baku's stance on Russian strikes in Ukraine. This is an RF IO attempt to discredit Aliyev and potentially deter Azerbaijan from supporting Ukraine (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Военкор Котенок reports that Azerbaijani channels are claiming Baku will lift the arms embargo on Kyiv if Moscow continues to strike Azerbaijani-related facilities. This is an RF IO attempting to create alarm and potentially dissuade further strikes, or frame Azerbaijan as an enemy (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Рыбарь posts a graphic titled "Coalition of the Unwilling," which is an RF IO aiming to portray a lack of unity or commitment among Ukraine's allies, using derogatory language. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kotsnews reports on US statements regarding compromise, with all parties being dissatisfied, which is a common RF IO tactic to suggest that Western positions are untenable and negotiation is the only path (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts a video of an ATV and explosion, indicating RF's use of training videos for propaganda to project capability and professionalism (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). WarGonzo posts a video featuring the commander of the Somali battalion, "Myth," which is RF propaganda humanizing and glorifying their units (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS posts a photo of a UN Security Council meeting, captioning it with Russian statements on Israel's actions in Gaza, indicating RF's intent to deflect attention from Ukraine to other global conflicts and portray itself as a defender of international law (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video discussing "Balts - a geopolitical misunderstanding," indicating RF IO to sow discord within NATO (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts photos with a caption asserting that Russian and Ukrainian people are one, citing "Pypa" (likely Putin) and using visuals of a Ukrainian court employee and a young Alexey Milchakov to justify RF's claim to all of Ukraine. This is a highly aggressive and revisionist RF IO claiming historical and cultural unity to legitimize aggression and annexation (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) warns Azerbaijan and Armenia that Iran is "ready to repeat Ukraine's fate for you," an RF IO amplifying regional tensions and Iran's aggressive posturing, likely to deter pro-UA alignment (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kotsnews's poll on Alaska being "Russian America" is a new and significant RF IO attempt to sow geopolitical discord, challenge US sovereignty, and extend its territorial claims (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns's reference to "101 kilometers" is a key piece of RF IO, suggesting a demilitarized zone which Russia could demand (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The report of a close associate of Putin proposing to end the war (NYT) is a significant development, as RF will likely try to frame any peace proposals on its own terms (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). WarGonzo's "How Abkhazia fought its way during the '080808' war" clearly indicates an RF intent to draw historical parallels to justify aggression and territorial seizures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts video of Zaporizhzhia strike, confirming strike with derogatory language, which is an RF IO aimed at mocking and dehumanizing UA victims (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Басурин о главном posts photo of Scott Ritter in Moscow, an RF IO attempt to show external validation and sow dissent (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts multiple videos related to floods/landslides in Dagestan with no context, which could be used to project normalcy or divert attention from military activities, or subtly imply internal challenges for RF that might affect military logistics. The use of "Быть добру!" in the Zaporizhzhia strike video is a highly cynical RF IO tactic, intending to mock and dehumanize victims. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages on "burning truth" from Ukrainian media, an RF IO to discredit UA information (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС states "Civil war is underway in Russia, people are burning relay cabinets, killing Putin's punishers because they don't want to fall into their hands, and propaganda registers everyone as SBU agents. In Russia, resistance to Putin's regime is becoming tougher and more decisive." This is a strong UA counter-IO (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Serbian President Vucic states that the Putin-Trump meeting could be a step towards peace in Ukraine, which RF is amplifying to legitimize the summit (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора posts a question: "Meeting of the Supreme and Trump = End of the SVO?" which is a clear RF IO to frame the potential outcome of the summit (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video of German Chancellor appealing to US and Russia not to decide Ukrainian territories "over the heads" of Europe and Ukraine (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for veracity of direct quote/IO intent). Рыбарь posts a photo message titled "Embargo' that wasn't," which is an RF IO attempting to downplay or deny the effectiveness of sanctions against them (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts video of two individuals with prosthetic legs, captioned "Avdeevka sprinter" and using derogatory language, intended to demoralize UA forces and blame UA leadership (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message with the caption "And then, like a bolt from the blue," referring to a statement by former US Vice President Mike Pence regarding the US needing to end funding for the war in Ukraine, which is an RF IO attempt to undermine Western support (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Два майора reports German Chancellor Merz called on US and Russia not to decide Ukrainian territories "over the heads" of Europe and Ukraine (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts photos claiming European leaders want to talk with Trump before his meeting with Putin in Alaska, further amplifying Western disunity (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message with the caption "I don't know how the arrest of 4th-grade carpenter Evgeny Vasilievich will help end the war. Good will prevail!" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). НгП раZVедка posts two photo messages captioned "From more adequate enemy resources to less adequate ones" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a new RF IO attempting to discredit or categorize Ukrainian information sources, possibly as part of a broader campaign against UA media. Alex Parker Returns posts two photo messages on the Gaza situation, framing Netanyahu's statements on demilitarization and Israeli security control as a "bloody" and likely futile attempt at a "final solution" to the Palestinian question. The posts end with the cynical "Good will prevail!" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a significant RF IO attempt to divert attention from Ukraine, criticize Israeli/Western policy, and portray the situation as hopeless, using highly inflammatory language. Операция Z (Воenkorы Русской Весны) posts video of a Russian citizen from Africa claiming there is no racism in Russia, part of an RF IO campaign to project inclusivity (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z (Voenkorы Русской Весны) posts a detailed description of the previous video, reinforcing the RF IO about lack of racism in Russia (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). НгП раZVедка posts a photo message claiming to have "undermined Ukraine's information field" instead of logistics, indicating RF IO targeting Ukrainian information operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). НгП раZVедка posts a detailed description of the previous message, reinforcing the RF IO claim of disrupting Ukrainian information efforts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports Polish Deputy Prime Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz believes inviting Zelensky to the Trump-Putin meeting would be the best solution (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Peter Kuznick, Director of the Nuclear Research Institute at American University in Washington, has stated that the plans for a Putin-Trump meeting suggest that the outlines of a deal are already in place (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a key RF IO amplifying perceived Western acceptance of their terms. TASS reports "Crocus" attackers were caught thanks to police reviewing cameras during the fire. This supports the RF narrative of effective law enforcement and internal security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна posts a photo of Greta Thunberg, which in context with the Gaza blockade, could be used by RF to frame Western activism as disruptive or misguided (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for photo, MEDIUM for RF IO usage). TASS reports an Indian journalist stated that Russia, India, and China can overcome US pressure through joint actions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo message using "Trump can help where Putin can't!" which is a clear UA IO attempt to sow discord within the RF narrative regarding the summit (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports that Putin's special representative for economic cooperation, Kirill Dmitriev, states the Putin-Trump meeting will bring peace and global security (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO). Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan's discussion with Trump will be used by RF to support narrative of US-Russia direct negotiations over Ukraine (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). ISW analysis that RF will use the Trump-Putin meeting to divide US and Europe, not for meaningful peace efforts, is being actively pushed by RF (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Fighterbomber dedicating a broadcast to the summit further supports this intent (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts the message: "But there is another path - a path of peace, brotherhood, love, and goodness!" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Два майора expresses agreement with the overall situation assessment (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- New Political Engagement: TASS reports that State Duma deputies recommended including obesity in the list of socially significant diseases (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a domestic social policy concern, not directly military. TASS reports Sergei Rybalchenko, Chairman of the OP Commission on Demography, Family Protection, Children and Traditional Family Values, has stated that the age for purchasing alcohol in Russia needs to be gradually raised to 21 years (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a domestic social policy concern, not directly military. TASS (010905Z AUG 25) reports that the government will introduce strict quality standards for public services, assigning responsible curators for each service. This is an internal governance reform, not directly military, but aligns with RF's efforts to project competent governance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF government intention). TASS reports former Deputy Governor of Samara Oblast, Gennady Gendin, has been accused of embezzling approximately 100 million rubles (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This indicates continued internal issues with high-level corruption within RF civilian administration, which can indirectly impact resource allocation and public trust in governance. TASS reports FSB claims Ukrainian special services are using deceived Russians as suicide bombers for terrorist attacks against military personnel in the Moscow region (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO). TASS reports five elderly women were deceived by scammers and then allegedly used by Kyiv as "living bombs" for attacks on military personnel in Moscow (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO). This is a significant RF IO development.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:
- Defensive Operations: UA forces maintain strong defensive lines and are actively engaging RF forces in all major directions (Vovchansk, Novovasylivka, Pokrovsk, Orykhiv, Kup'yansk, Chasiv Yar, Bila Hora, Toretsk, Scherbynivka, Katerynivka, Stepanivka, Rusyn Yar, Pleschiyivka, Hryhorivka, Fedorivka, Filiya, Zelene Pole, Tolstoy, Temyrivka, Maliyivka, Novopil, Voskresenka, Olhivske, Sichneve). Repelled 8 RF assaults in Kherson direction and 12 in Kursk/Sumy direction (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UA General Staff explicitly states continued control of Dachne, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, refuting RF claims (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The successful breakout of the 92nd Brigade from encirclement near Pokrovsk demonstrates high combat effectiveness and resilience (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UA forces demonstrate amphibious/riverine reconnaissance and patrol capabilities using jet skis, suggesting adaptability to diverse terrains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). 2nd motorized infantry battalion of the 93rd Brigade "Kholodny Yar" continues to inflict heavy losses on the enemy in Bakhmut and Pokrovsk directions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of the 71st Jaeger Brigade DShV attempting to develop success in Sumy Oblast, involving explosions in an industrial area, suggesting active UA offensive actions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (Ukrainian General Staff) posts updated operational information as of 22:00, 10 AUG 25 (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for report, MEDIUM for specific details without full text). Николаевский Ванёк reports rapid and successful fundraising efforts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). All 6 x UAVs flying towards Добропілля have been shot down (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for successful interdiction). UA forces have committed reserves to northern Kharkiv Oblast in response to the RF offensive, and are engaged in active defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Tactical gains by RF in Strilecha, Krasne, Pylna, and Borysivka highlight the immediate defensive challenge in Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). In the Chasiv Yar direction, UA forces successfully repelled platoon-sized probes against the Ivanivske-Klishchiivka line. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Генштаб ЗСУ / General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has released an infographic on approximate enemy combat losses from February 24, 2022, to August 11, 2025, claiming an additional 1000 RF personnel eliminated in the last 24 hours (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ also report an additional 1000 RF personnel eliminated in the last 24 hours (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (Ukrainian General Staff) posts an updated operational information report as of 08:00, August 11, 2025 (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ posts a tactical map presenting current operational information as of 08:00, August 11, 2025 (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). DeepState has updated its map, indicating current frontlines (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The 46th Airmobile Brigade DShV ZSU released drone footage showing the destruction of RF positions, camouflaged equipment, and antennas, demonstrating active UA counter-offensive action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). DeepState posts video of 2nd battalion, 101 OBRO GSh destroying enemy infantry in forests near Starytsia (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA).
- Air Defense Capabilities: Demonstrated continued high effectiveness against RF UAVs (all 7 strike UAVs on Kramatorsk/Sloviansk shot down, 70/100 UAVs overall suppressed/shot down), and capable of intercepting ballistic missiles (Iskander-K shot down over Dnipropetrovsk). Actively monitoring and engaging reconnaissance UAV threats in Sumy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Poltava Oblasts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF strike UAVs from Kherson Oblast are moving towards Mykolaiv Oblast, requiring continued vigilance (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports Ukraine is under a massive Shahed attack, indicating active air defense operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs are moving through northern Sumy Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна posts an updated map of air raid alerts showing broad areas of concern in eastern, southern, and central Ukraine (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RF UAVs are inbound towards Borzna and Sribne in Chernihiv Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new groups of RF strike UAVs inbound towards Donetsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 x UAVs flying towards Добропілля, with a follow-up confirmation of all 6 being shot down (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for drone activity, HIGH for UA interdiction). Николаевский Ванёк reports 12 new UAVs inbound towards Shostka, Sumy Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirms groups of strike UAVs from northern Sumy Oblast, moving past Shostka, Semenivka, and Novgorod-Siverskyi (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Николаевский Ванёк reports "отбой по этим мопедам" (all clear for these mopeds), confirming the end of the previously reported UAV threat to Shostka, Sumy Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Increased UAV losses, particularly for reconnaissance models, are reported in Kharkiv due0 to heavy GPS jamming from Pole-21 systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs are inbound for Sumy Oblast, indicating ongoing aerial threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues a new alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs are en route to Novomykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 59/71 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for UA claim, MEDIUM for specific breakdown). Оперативний ЗСУ corroborates UA Air Force report of 59/71 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports Ukraine's Air Force states 71 drones (Shahed and imitators) were launched, with 59/71 shot down/suppressed overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for UA claim, MEDIUM for specific breakdown). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat from the south (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Deep Strike Capabilities: Continued successful long-range drone strikes on RF territory, including critical infrastructure (Saratov Oil Refinery, Shahed production/storage in Tatarstan, Lukoil-Ukhtaneft processing plant, Millerovo fuel base, Zamchalovo substation, Arzamas/Nizhny Novgorod) and military targets. The expansion of these strikes to previously untouched regions like Ukhta (Komis Republic) and the Chechen Republic indicates growing reach and sophistication (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Successful FPV drone strikes against RF military equipment (BM-21 Grad, vehicles) demonstrating effective tactical application and advanced methods (fiber optics) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UA Air Force successfully employed a GBU62 guided bomb against an RF assault concentration near Pokrovsk and delivered a high-precision strike on an RF battalion command post near Oleshky, demonstrating effective tactical air support and targeting of high-value RF C2 nodes (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА's video, even if RF-sourced, depicts a UA FPV drone engagement with an RF armored vehicle, further demonstrating UA FPV capabilities (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). НгП раZVедка's video showing drone reconnaissance and targeting indicates continued UA capabilities for detailed surveillance and strike planning (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). DeepState posts video of FPV drone engaging RF personnel east of Rusyn Yar (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO posts a video of a tactical drone operation targeting enemy personnel and armored vehicles, showing multiple successful impacts and explosions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts multiple photo reports showing successful fundraising campaigns and delivery of vehicles and equipment, reinforcing UA deep strike and reconnaissance capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video claiming liquidation of "Moscow degenerates" by operators of the 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts satellite imagery analysis suggesting the probable detection of a "Yenisei" radar/SAM system, reportedly hit by GUR, indicating successful targeting of RF air defense (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for analysis, MEDIUM for BDA). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of the 71st Jaeger Brigade DShV attempting to develop success in Sumy Oblast, involving explosions in an industrial area, suggesting continued UA offensive and deep strike actions in border regions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts video of "Hart" brigade drones hunting camouflaged RF vehicles near Vovchansk, utilizing fiber optics, demonstrating continued effective UA FPV deep strike capabilities (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). Два майора posts a video appealing for donations for frontline vehicles, indicating continued grassroots fundraising for UA capabilities (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for impact). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС and Оперативний ЗСУ report the elimination of a Russian propagandist/assault medic, with photos and video (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for UA claim, MEDIUM for specific BDA). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of a shootout between a "saboteur" and Russian police in Arkhangelsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA), confirming continued internal incidents. New ammunition depots in the Bakhmut rear area are nominated for deep strike by long-range precision fires (HIMARS/ATACMS). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports unknown drones attacked Arzamas in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The videos and photos from РБК-Україна provide visual evidence of a fire/explosion in the distance, a building on fire, and a small unidentified fixed-wing aircraft/drone flying in the sky, consistent with drone attack on Arzamas (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for imagery, MEDIUM for specific BDA). STERNENKO posts multiple videos showing damage to a multi-story building (likely an instrument-making plant) in Arzamas, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, with some footage showing an explosion/fire, confirming a successful drone attack (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Other videos from STERNENKO show a small aircraft in flight and a distant explosion/air defense engagement, suggesting continued drone activity in Nizhny Novgorod (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ also posts video showing an explosion on a large building structure and a small aircraft in flight, corroborating the drone attack in Nizhny Novgorod (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video claiming attack on instrument-making plant in Arzamas, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts additional photo messages providing visual BDA of the attack on the instrument-making plant in Arzamas, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for photos, MEDIUM for BDA). The 46th Airmobile Brigade DShV ZSU released drone footage showing the destruction of RF positions, camouflaged equipment, and antennas, demonstrating active UA counter-offensive action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for BDA). STERNENKO reports that Ukrainian drones are continuously attacking RF territories (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» posts on drone repair and fundraising (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Mobilization & Training: Training activities of the 159th OMBR. Efforts to prevent evasion of mobilization are ongoing (e.g., thwarted escape to Slovakia) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian Sergeant Yuri Kusov was captured in Donetsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video of two soldiers from the 7th Airborne Division of Zaporizhzhia appealing for donations for drones and Starlink, highlighting ongoing unit-level fundraising for capabilities (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 further reports on the fundraising progress, indicating continued efforts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Николаевский Ванёк reports rapid and successful fundraising efforts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Президентська бригада ЗСУ is recruiting medics (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports on a fundraising campaign for the "Rubizh" brigade (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Medical & Psychological Support: GUR combat medics conducting aerial evacuations demonstrate robust medical support. Initiatives like animal interaction for psychological relief indicate attention to soldier well-being (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). State Emergency Service actively involved in rescue operations for civilian casualties from RF strikes (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Сили оборони Півдня України posts videos of active rescue operations for civilian casualties in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting UA's humanitarian response. Президентська бригада ЗСУ is recruiting medics (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Overall Morale/Resilience: Олександр Вілкул's daily briefings and posts on local basketball games indicate efforts to maintain morale. Photo exhibition on Chasiv Yar defense boosts morale. Zelensky's latest video address emphasizes independence, dignity, and continued struggle (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO's photo message of a knife raffle from K-2 regiment indicates continued fundraising efforts and a connection between military units and the public (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zelensky's call with Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson, thanking for significant defense support (4 billion USD this year), highlights ongoing international military aid and strengthens morale (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ also reports on Zelensky's call with the Swedish PM (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's photo report on weekly assistance to Defense Forces, including vehicles, drones, and other equipment, demonstrates ongoing public and administrative support for UA forces (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This indicates robust grassroots and regional support mechanisms. Zelenskiy / Official and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 report a "good and substantive conversation" with the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, indicating continued diplomatic efforts to build international support (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна also reports on Zelensky's call with the President of Kazakhstan (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zelenskiy / Official and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also report on a call with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, congratulating him on agreements with Armenia, indicating UA's engagement with broader regional stability and diplomatic efforts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a BILD article headline: "This week could be decisive for the future fate of Ukraine," indicating awareness of high stakes and potentially aiming to galvanize support/morale (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for awareness, LOW for direct impact). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports a delayed "July" collection will occur at 17:00, indicating ongoing public fundraising efforts for military support (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Nikolaevskiy Vanek posts a link to a bank for donations, indicating ongoing public fundraising efforts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports strong progress on fundraising goals, with over half achieved and 1.1 million UAH remaining (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ reports that President Zelensky held a telephone conversation with President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan today (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports Azerbaijan may lift arms embargo on Ukraine if Russia continues attacking Azerbaijani-linked infrastructure (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports that Zelensky has promised a "strong project" concerning combat aviation, potentially alluding to the acquisition of Gripen aircraft, indicating continued efforts to enhance UA Air Force capabilities (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports that Ukraine will continue to receive weapons regardless of the Alaska summit outcome, citing NATO Secretary General Rutte (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatsiya Z (Voenkorы Русской Весны) reports NATO Secretary General Rutte states no final agreement will be reached at the Putin-Trump meeting in Alaska, which aligns with UA's position (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports that 2nd motorized infantry battalion of the 93rd Brigade "Kholodny Yar" is appealing for drone donations, indicating ongoing resource needs despite their effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports on Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko's working visit to Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора posts a video for collecting funds for frontline vehicles, indicating continued grassroots fundraising for UA capabilities (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ukraine will continue to receive weapons regardless of the Trump-Putin summit results, citing Rutte (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports Polish Deputy Prime Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz believes inviting Zelensky to the Trump-Putin meeting would be the best solution (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна posts a photo message with caption from UA Ambassador to the US Oksana Markarova stating US will act from a position of strength in negotiations with Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 and Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (Ukrainian General Staff) have published infographics on estimated RF combat losses, demonstrating commitment to transparency and information dissemination (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo message about Aliyev and Zelensky's phone conversation, likely to frame it within RF IO (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). STERNENKO posts a message calling for a "tax on the extermination of Russians" on Monday (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts video commemorating fallen defenders (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts a photo commemorating fallen defenders (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo commemorating fallen defenders (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Control Measures: UA Air Force "Attention!" alerts for Kyiv persist. UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs are active northern Sumy, eastern Kharkiv, and eastern Dnipropetrovsk (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has declared "All Clear" for air raid (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports an increased threat of kamikaze drone attacks in southern Ukraine, indicating a heightened alert for this region (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UA Air Force reports threat of ballistic weapons from Kursk (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This threat was subsequently cleared (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs are moving through northern Sumy Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна posts an updated map of air raid alerts indicating widespread threats, particularly in eastern, southern, and central Ukraine (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RF UAVs are inbound towards Borzna and Sribne in Chernihiv Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new groups of RF strike UAVs inbound towards Donetsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 x UAVs flying towards Добропілля, with a follow-up confirmation of all 6 being shot down (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for drone activity, HIGH for UA interdiction). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports "All Clear" for air raid (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Igor Artamonov reports red-level "UAV attack threat" declared for Yelets, Yelets MR, Dolgorukovsky MR, Stanovlyansky MO, Izmalkovsky MO (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Николаевский Ванёк reports 12 new UAVs inbound towards Shostka, Sumy Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirms groups of strike UAVs from northern Sumy Oblast, moving past Shostka, Semenivka, and Novgorod-Siverskyi (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Николаевский Ванёк reports "отбой по этим мопедам" (all clear for these mopeds), confirming the end of the previously reported UAV threat to Shostka, Sumy Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Heavy GPS jamming is reported across the northern Kharkiv front, leading to increased UAV losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports "Kovyor" plan has been cancelled in Penza Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Nizhny Novgorod airport has temporarily suspended flights (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports restrictions in Kaluga airport lifted (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues a new alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs are en route to Novomykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Igor Artamonov reports the red-level "UAV attack threat" for Lipetsk Oblast has been cancelled (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Kaluga airport (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports restrictions on air traffic at Nizhny Novgorod airport have been lifted (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports drone safety measures in place in multiple RF Oblasts including Kaluga, Smolensk, Tula, Moscow, Oryol, Bryansk, Rostov, Lipetsk, and Tatarstan (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat from the south (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF Objectives and Tactics: RF continues to employ a multi-faceted information warfare strategy aimed at demoralizing UA forces and population, influencing international opinion, and pressurring Kyiv into concessions.
- Delegitimizing UA Leadership/Mobilization: Using derogatory terms ("military dictator Zelensky," "narcotic mercenaries"), amplifying videos of forced mobilization, and creating false narratives of "voluntary mobilization" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts a video compilation discussing a plan to end the "SVO" (Special Military Operation) on federal media, framing it as "heating up the goyim" (derogatory term), and specifically mentioning "long-term peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian crisis," indicating continued RF focus on influencing US public opinion and diplomatic narratives (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message suggesting Zelensky will be on Alaska waiting during the Putin-Trump meeting, an RF IO attempting to diminish Zelensky's diplomatic standing (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message claiming Russian and Ukrainian people are one, using a derogatory term for Ukrainians, aiming to justify RF's claim to all of Ukraine (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Alex Parker Returns posts video of two individuals with prosthetic legs, captioned "Avdeevka sprinter" and using derogatory language, intended to demoralize UA forces and blame UA leadership (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Colonelcassad posts photo screenshots from Anastasia Mirzak, an employee of Svyatoshinsky Court, showing her with a Nazi German flag with a swastika (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for photo, HIGH for RF IO intent to discredit UA). Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message with the caption "I don't know how the arrest of 4th-grade carpenter Evgeny Vasilievich will help end the war. Good will prevail!" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports FSB claims Ukrainian special services are using deceived Russians as suicide bombers for terrorist attacks against military personnel in the Moscow region (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO). TASS reports five elderly women were deceived by scammers and then allegedly used by Kyiv as "living bombs" for attacks on military personnel in Moscow (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO). This is a significant RF IO development, aiming to demonize Ukraine and potentially justify further aggressive actions. TASS reports the killing of the founder of the Sarkisyan volunteer battalion in Alye Parusa was a terrorist attack by a suicide bomber, citing FSB (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports the alleged use of elderly women by Kyiv as "living bombs" for terrorist attacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO). TASS posts video corroborating this claim (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z (Voenkorы Русской Весны) provides multiple videos and context for FSB claims of Ukrainian special services using deceived elderly women as "living bombs" for terrorist attacks in Moscow (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO).
- Sowing Internal Discord: Exploiting social tensions (e.g., Lviv "language scandal"), attempting to create societal divisions by framing "liberals vs. the people" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). НгП раZVедка posts an IO mocking Ukrainian protests compared to Belarusian stability, attempting to delegitimize Ukrainian civic action and sow discord (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Север.Реалии discusses the inability of the Russian state to admit mistakes, indicating a systemic issue that contributes to RF propaganda and denial (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts photo message "Confusion", which is likely aimed at confusing public narrative or discrediting sources (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for IO intent). НгП раZVедка posts two photo messages captioned "From more adequate enemy resources to less adequate ones" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a new RF IO attempting to discredit or categorize Ukrainian information sources, possibly as part of a broader campaign against UA media. НгП раZVедка posts a photo message claiming to have "undermined Ukraine's information field" instead of logistics, indicating RF IO targeting Ukrainian information operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). НгП раZVедка posts a detailed description of the previous message, reinforcing the RF IO claim of disrupting Ukrainian information efforts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS (010159Z AUG 25) reports on scammers posing as university officials to steal money from students. While not direct military IO, this type of internal crime reporting could be used to distract from military failures or project internal social issues as challenges (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). TASS reports former Deputy Governor of Samara Oblast, Gennady Gendin, has been accused of embezzling approximately 100 million rubles (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This financial crime report, while factual, could be leveraged by RF IO to project internal anti-corruption efforts or to distract from other issues. Стрелков Игорь Иванович posts on "Russian nationalism" in the USSR (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for content, LOW for military relevance).
- Exaggerating UA Losses/Territorial Gains: Claims of liberating settlements (Yablonovka), refuting UA control (Dachne), and spreading false reports of UA withdrawals (Klitschko's alleged statement on Bakhmut/Kursk) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad claims new RF territorial gains in Novo Shakhove and other settlements (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claims). Colonelcassad claims "dozens of Ukrainian soldiers" encircled in Kleban-Byk forced to surrender (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO). TASS claims RF paratroopers destroyed a UA HMMWV near Podolskoye, Donetsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). Kotsnews claims a Ukrainian counter-offensive in Sumy was suppressed, which aims to minimize UA successes and project RF strength (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Pushilin's latest statement on RF advances in Poltavka and Rusin Yar further serves to exaggerate RF gains. Pushilin's claim of destroying a UA stronghold in Shandrigholovo also aims to project RF effectiveness. Colonelcassad's photo message claiming advances near Katerynivka and Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) indicates continued RF attempts to exaggerate gains (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Два майора reports on the intermediate results of the evacuation of civilian population from the Korabel microdistrict by the "occupational Ukrainian administration of Kherson", attempting to portray UA as illegitimate (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO). RF milbloggers will likely exaggerate gains in northern Kharkiv Oblast, potentially claiming Vovchansk or significant territorial control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Andrey Marochko claims Kyiv lost nearly 4,000 soldiers and mercenaries in battles near Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) over the week (CONFIDENCE: LOW). This is an RF IO claim aimed at demoralizing UA forces and overstating RF effectiveness. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's morning summary will likely contain exaggerated RF gains (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). WarGonzo's frontline summary will also contain similar exaggerated claims (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a dugout with personnel of UA's 5th Kyiv Assault Brigade was destroyed in DNR (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/video, MEDIUM for BDA). TASS reports RF forces have dislodged UA forces from positions in administrative buildings of the Krasnolimanskaya mine, Donetsk (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video claiming two Ukrainian "migrant workers" (заробітчани) have "finished their contracts," which is a cynical and dehumanizing RF IO tactic to depict UA military personnel as mere mercenaries and to mock their casualties (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent).
- Framing Western Allies as Warmongers: Accusing EU leaders of sabotaging peace efforts and driving conflict (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z posts an RF IO claiming "Euro-psychos in hysteria" over Putin-Trump meeting, accusing EU leaders of sabotaging peace efforts due to desire for war (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Kotsnews and Старше Эдды amplify US statements about "compromise" where "everyone will be dissatisfied," a common RF IO tactic to suggest Western positions are untenable and negotiation is the only path (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS posts a photo of a UN Security Council meeting, captioning it with Russian statements on Israel's actions in Gaza, indicating RF's intent to deflect attention from Ukraine to other global conflicts and portray itself as a defender of international law (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video discussing "Balts as a geopolitical misunderstanding" in the context of nuclear war, attempting to sow discord within NATO and undermine its resolve (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video of German Chancellor appealing to US and Russia not to decide Ukrainian territories over the heads of Europe and Ukraine. This is an RF IO tactic to highlight internal Western divisions regarding Ukraine's future (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Рыбарь posts a photo message titled "Embargo' that wasn't," which is an RF IO attempting to downplay or deny the effectiveness of sanctions against them (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message with the caption "And then, like a bolt from the blue," referring to a statement by former US Vice President Mike Pence regarding the US needing to end funding for the war in Ukraine, which is an RF IO attempt to undermine Western support (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Два майора reports German Chancellor Merz called on US and Russia not to decide Ukrainian territories "over the heads" of Europe and Ukraine (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts photos claiming European leaders want to talk with Trump before his meeting with Putin in Alaska, further amplifying Western disunity (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message with the caption "I don't know how the arrest of 4th-grade carpenter Evgeny Vasilievich will help end the war. Good will prevail!" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). НгП раZVедка posts two photo messages captioned "From more adequate enemy resources to less adequate ones" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a new RF IO attempting to discredit or categorize Ukrainian information sources, possibly as part of a broader campaign against UA media. Alex Parker Returns posts two photo messages on the Gaza situation, framing Netanyahu's statements on demilitarization and Israeli security control as a "bloody" and likely futile attempt at a "final solution" to the Palestinian question. The posts end with the cynical "Good will prevail!" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a significant RF IO attempt to divert attention from Ukraine, criticize Israeli/Western policy, and portray the situation as hopeless, using highly inflammatory language. Операция Z (Воenkorы Русской Весны) posts video of a Russian citizen from Africa claiming there is no racism in Russia, part of an RF IO campaign to project inclusivity (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z (Voenkorы Русской Весны) posts a detailed description of the previous video, reinforcing the RF IO about lack of racism in Russia (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). НгП раZVедка posts a photo message claiming to have "undermined Ukraine's information field" instead of logistics, indicating RF IO targeting Ukrainian information operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). НгП раZVедка posts a detailed description of the previous message, reinforcing the RF IO claim of disrupting Ukrainian information efforts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports Polish Deputy Prime Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz believes inviting Zelensky to the Trump-Putin meeting would be the best solution (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Peter Kuznick, Director of the Nuclear Research Institute at American University in Washington, has stated that the plans for a Putin-Trump meeting suggest that the outlines of a deal are already in place (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a key RF IO amplifying perceived Western acceptance of their terms. TASS reports "Crocus" attackers were caught thanks to police reviewing cameras during the fire. This supports the RF narrative of effective law enforcement and internal security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна posts a photo of Greta Thunberg, which in context with the Gaza blockade, could be used by RF to frame Western activism as disruptive or misguided (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for photo, MEDIUM for RF IO usage). TASS reports an Indian journalist stated that Russia, India, and China can overcome US pressure through joint actions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports that Putin's special representative for economic cooperation, Kirill Dmitriev, states the Putin-Trump meeting will bring peace and global security (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim/IO). Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan's discussion with Trump will be used by RF to support narrative of US-Russia direct negotiations over Ukraine (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). ISW analysis that RF will use the Trump-Putin meeting to divide US and Europe, not for meaningful peace efforts, is being actively pushed by RF (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Fighterbomber dedicating a broadcast to the summit further supports this intent (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts the message: "But there is another path - a path of peace, brotherhood, love, and goodness!" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent).
- Projecting RF Strength & Normalcy: Highlighting military modernization (new rifles, "newest weapons" claims), diplomatic engagements (Putin's calls with foreign leaders), and civilian events (sports parades, cultural exhibitions) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Igor Artamonov posts video showcasing civilian life and development in Lipetsk Oblast, projecting normalcy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Старше Эдды posts an advertisement for a "Gelick" (Mercedes-Benz G-Wagen) and iPhone 16 Pro lottery, indicating RF milbloggers are increasingly leveraging consumerism in their IO to project normalcy and potentially fundraise (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports on the death of theater director Yuri Butusov, a domestic news item that projects normalcy (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). WarGonzo posts a video featuring the commander of the Somali battalion, "Myth," which is RF propaganda humanizing and glorifying their units (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kotsnews posts a video of a parade or march of young people, likely athletes or participants in a youth event, carrying flags and walking in formation at VDNKh, Moscow, as a "grand parade of athletes" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for IO intent). «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» posts photos of its commander with a religious figure, indicating an effort to project unity and moral legitimacy (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Старше Эдды's video of the "grand parade of athletes" in Moscow further amplifies this normalcy and strength projection (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора's video "On the Crimean shores" projects RF naval readiness and professionalism (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Fighterbomber posts a photo message captioned "It was evening," which is part of an ongoing effort to project normalcy and routine (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Басурин о главном posts photos of Scott Ritter in Moscow, projecting external validation and legitimacy (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a video reviewing a "great suitcase for business trips and vacations," likely an IO effort to project normalcy, but also potentially a subtle signal of readiness or mobility for operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for IO intent). MoD Russia posts a photo message captioned "Top News Today", likely summarizing claimed RF successes in air defense and combat operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent, LOW for specific details without context). Igor Artamonov posts video of a local family sporting event in Lipetsk Oblast, a clear IO attempt to project normalcy and a healthy civilian society (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kadyrov_95 posts a video from a music project semi-final, an attempt to project normalcy and cultural life in Chechnya (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for IO intent). Alex Parker Returns posts several photo messages of leather belts with captions like "Made with soul for real Russian men," which are clear IO attempts to project a sense of traditional Russian masculinity, craftsmanship, and a return to "values," indirectly supporting the war effort and projecting normalcy in civilian life (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Рыбарь's "Nuclear leak in Scotland" graphic is a clear RF IO attempting to generate alarm and undermine Western security narratives (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). WarGonzo's "Turkey obtained nearly nuclear strike" claim is a clear RF IO to amplify perceived threats or create discord within NATO (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Colonelcassad's repost of Ben-Gvir's statement calling for the destruction of the Palestinian Authority is likely an RF IO to highlight perceived Western/Israeli radicalism and shift focus from Ukraine to other conflicts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Басурин о главном advertises "Car delivery from Europe with prices below market!", which is a civilian advertisement used by an RF milblogger, likely an attempt to project normalcy and economic stability (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for IO intent). WarGonzo's "Letters from the Front" video depicts a Russian soldier expressing personal gratitude, an RF IO tactic designed to humanize its forces, foster domestic support, and normalize the conflict for the Russian public (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА's "Correct Trend" photos are likely an RF IO effort to project a sense of positive momentum, professionalism, or unit cohesion within their forces (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Старше Эдды's lottery advertisement for a civilian vehicle and smartphone is an example of RF milbloggers leveraging consumerism to project normalcy and potentially fundraise (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Kotsnews posts photos with the caption "EVENING BELL," which are likely part of general news or IO to project normalcy (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for IO intent). «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» posts photos of commander Apty Aronovich and Father Nikolay, projecting religious and military unity (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Старше Эдды posted a video of a large "grand parade of athletes" in Moscow, framed as inspiring and a return to "best traditions," a clear IO effort to project normalcy and national strength (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора's video "On the Crimean shores" portrays naval activity in a positive light, projecting professionalism and control (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Fighterbomber posts a photo message captioned "It was evening," which is part of an ongoing effort to project normalcy and routine (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a literary event advertisement, which, while not RF-sourced, could be a subtle way of maintaining cultural normalcy in wartime (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for content, LOW for military significance). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a video reviewing a "great suitcase for business trips and vacations," likely an IO effort to project normalcy, but also potentially a subtle signal of readiness or mobility for operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for IO intent). MoD Russia posts a photo message captioned "Top News Today", likely summarizing claimed RF successes in air defense and combat operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent, LOW for specific details without context). Colonelcassad posts video of an African participant in the "SVO" receiving a Russian passport in Irkutsk, which is a strong RF IO effort to project inclusivity, draw foreign fighters, and normalize their military efforts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo messages depicting Russian paratroopers with a military vehicle (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent). TASS reports a bill will be submitted to the State Duma to lower the age for joining political parties to 16 (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This indicates RF's intent to engage youth in political processes, potentially as part of broader mobilization or social control efforts. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video of a Russian citizen from Africa claiming there is no racism in Russia, part of an RF IO campaign to project inclusivity (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z (Voenkorы Русской Весны) posts a detailed description of the previous video, reinforcing the RF IO about lack of racism in Russia (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports Polish Deputy Prime Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Каmysh believes inviting Zelensky to the Trump-Putin meeting would be the best solution (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Полиция Хабаровского края has issued a video message recruiting for the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) in Khabarovsk Krai. The video highlights job vacancies for operational investigators, district police commissioners, traffic inspectors, and investigators, and provides a hotline number for the HR department (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is an internal RF IO effort to maintain normalcy and fulfill internal security personnel needs. TASS reports that the US Secret Service has rented housing in Anchorage ahead of the Putin-Trump summit in Alaska (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This factual report supports the narrative of the summit's high importance and advanced preparation, aligning with RF efforts to project diplomatic strength. TASS (010905Z AUG 25) reports on government efforts to introduce strict quality standards for public services. This supports the overall narrative of RF's ability to govern effectively and maintain societal order. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports "Kalashnikov" is supplying a drone capable of 20 days of flight to the "special operation" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This emphasizes advanced military technology and capability. TASS reports one-fifth of all housing in Russia will be new by 2030, which is an RF IO effort to project economic growth and improved living standards, reinforcing normalcy (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts video of the flight of a new Chinese KJ-3000 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft, based on the Y-20 military transport aircraft with WS-20 engines (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This indicates advanced Chinese military aviation development, which RF can leverage to project its strategic alignment with powerful nations and potentially acquire advanced military technology. Colonelcassad also posts a video of a military transport aircraft, likely an Il-76, which can be used to project power and logistical capability (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for specific mission). TASS reports that active use of drones for goods delivery could begin in two to three years, as stated by the Minister of Transport (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This implies a future potential for logistics delivery via UAVs and contributes to the projection of normalcy and technological advancement. TASS reports the Mosbirzha Index exceeded 3,000 points, which will be used to project economic stability (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Fighterbomber posts a photo message of a clear sky and two helicopters in flight, including a Ka-52, aiming to project normalcy and continued aerial operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a photo message of military personnel and a vehicle, likely part of a morale-boosting or recruitment effort (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Ukrainian Public: Characterized by sustained resilience, strong support for the armed forces, and civic engagement through fundraising. Public concern over safety (Odesa mine incident, continued shelling of civilian areas like Shakhove and Kharkiv Oblast, Zaporizhzhia strike on bus station and residential buildings now 20 wounded, Tula Oblast drone attacks now confirmed with casualties, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast drone attack with casualties). Morale boosts from successful deep strikes (Saratov, Ukhta, Millerovo, Zamchalovo, Arzamas) and tactical successes (92nd Brigade breakout, Oleshky command post strike, Pokrovsk guided bomb, 1000 RF personnel eliminated). Anger and determination likely to increase due to alleged RF war crimes (Chernihiv) and militarization of children in occupied territories (Luhansk) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Ongoing challenges with mobilization evasion (Slovakia attempt) indicate a segment of the population is unwilling to serve (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). New reports of hostage situation in Lviv will impact civilian security perceptions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The active rescue efforts by the State Emergency Service in Zaporizhzhia may provide some comfort, but the underlying trauma remains (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zelensky's public reaction to the Zaporizhzhia strike underscores the shared anger and determination against RF actions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Continued public fundraising indicates strong popular support for the war effort. STERNENKO reports Ukraine is under a massive Shahed attack, likely increasing public concern (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Николаевский Ванёк reports rapid and successful fundraising efforts, indicating continued public support and morale (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Successful downing of 6 UAVs targeting Добропілля will boost local morale (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The reported direct drone threat to Shostka and surrounding areas in Sumy Oblast will cause immediate civilian anxiety (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The "all clear" for UAVs in Sumy Oblast will provide immediate relief and reinforce trust in UA air defense (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The new offensive in Kharkiv Oblast will significantly impact civilian morale and likely lead to further displacement and humanitarian needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The new alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast will cause immediate anxiety among the civilian population (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The reports of strike UAVs en route to Novomykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, will cause localized public anxiety (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Serhiy Lysak's reports of continued shelling in Nikopol Raion and photo messages showing damaged civilian homes will reinforce public concern for safety (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Oleksandr Vilkul's "situation controlled" message in Kryvyi Rih aims to reassure the local population (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO's call for a "tax on the extermination of Russians" reflects continued high morale and determination (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video of a veteran and a raven, indicating social impact of war and perhaps resilience (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, LOW for direct military relevance to morale). РБК-Україна providing summaries of night news for Ukrainian citizens supports civilian information access and transparency (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts video commemorating fallen defenders, which reinforces public remembrance and solidarity (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts a photo commemorating fallen defenders (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo commemorating fallen defenders (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Russian Public: State efforts to project normalcy (Lipetsk sports event, Moscow cultural events, Khabarovsk police recruitment, real estate development) attempt to mitigate concerns. However, drone attacks deep within RF territory (Saratov, Ukhta, Chechnya, Tatarstan, Millerovo, Zamchalovo, Arkhangelsk, and now Tula, Arzamas/Nizhny Novgorod with casualties, and renewed threat in Lipetsk Oblast now cancelled) challenge the narrative of security and likely cause public anxiety (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Milblogger appeals for donations expose reliance on volunteers for military sustainment, potentially undermining state image. Anti-war sentiment, though suppressed, is visible (St. Petersburg street art) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Concerns about mobilization persist (fake electronic notices). Intercepted calls suggest frustration among border residents with RF aviation activity (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF IO about "Ukrainians tired of war" suggests they believe this narrative resonates with a segment of UA public (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The use of the term "Триста!" (wounded) by a milblogger indicates an acknowledgment of casualties among RF forces, which can impact morale (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The death of a policeman during an arrest of a railway arsonist in Arkhangelsk Oblast indicates internal security challenges and potential public discontent or sabotage efforts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The internal debate within Putin's circle about ending the war, if true, could affect public morale (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Severe floods and landslides in Dagestan could strain public services and impact morale in affected regions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's claim of "civil war" and growing resistance within Russia (burning relay cabinets, killing "punishers") suggests increasing internal unrest and could impact public morale and the state's ability to project normalcy (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for the claim, MEDIUM for widespread impact). RF reports of a new attempt to attack Moscow with UAVs will increase public anxiety in the capital (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad's video of an African "SVO participant" receiving a Russian passport, while designed to project normalcy and inclusivity, could also be perceived as a sign of reliance on foreign fighters, potentially impacting morale within domestic RF ranks if viewed as a failure of domestic recruitment (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). The killing of a musician by a military serviceman in Petrozavodsk will negatively impact public trust and perception of military personnel (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The proposed lowering of the age for joining political parties to 16 may cause mixed reactions, potentially seen as either engaging youth or as an attempt to control them (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). RF IO mocking Ukrainian efforts, as seen with the "4th-grade carpenter" narrative, aims to boost domestic morale by belittling the enemy, but its effectiveness is uncertain (CONFIDENCE: LOW). RF IO displaying a Black Russian citizen claiming no racism in Russia is aimed at counteracting negative international perceptions of RF and bolstering domestic public image (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The claim by RF IO of "undermining Ukraine's information field" is intended to boost domestic morale by projecting success in information warfare (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports State Duma deputies recommended including obesity in the list of socially significant diseases (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a domestic social issue, and its inclusion on a list of "socially significant diseases" may aim to alleviate public health concerns or could be leveraged in future IO regarding national health. The report of one employee killed and two injured in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast due to a UAV attack will negatively impact local public morale and confidence in air defense (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video claiming two Ukrainian "migrant workers" (заробітчани) have "finished their contracts," which is a cynical and dehumanizing RF IO tactic to depict UA military personnel as mere mercenaries and to mock their casualties (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF IO intent).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

Ukrainian Support: Sweden's significant defense support (4 billion USD this year) to Ukraine highlights continued international military aid (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kazakhstan's and Azerbaijan's diplomatic engagement with Zelensky indicates continued efforts to build international support (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Azerbaijan potentially lifting arms embargo if RF continues targeting Azerbaijani-linked infrastructure would be a significant development (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Ukrainian Navy addressing public on mine threat and the Polish Deputy PM advocating for Zelensky's inclusion in Putin-Trump meeting shows international backing for UA's sovereignty and diplomatic standing (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). NATO Secretary General Rutte stating Ukraine will continue to receive weapons regardless of Alaska summit outcome is a strong signal of continued Western support (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
RF Diplomacy/Influence: RF continues to try to leverage the potential Putin-Trump meeting to project diplomatic importance and seek concessions from Ukraine and its allies (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS quotes Serbian President Vucic supporting the summit as a step towards peace, which is an RF IO amplification (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF aims to sow discord within Western alliances (e.g., "Euro-psychos in hysteria," "Balts as geopolitical misunderstanding") (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF seeks to normalize relations with actors like the Taliban for geopolitical influence. China's chip export restrictions and rare earth control could impact global military industrial complexes, including Western allies, an area RF likely monitors for leverage (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Iran expressing willingness to mediate Ukraine conflict indicates a broader geopolitical repositioning that RF may exploit. The Iranian warning to Azerbaijan and Armenia indicates heightened regional tensions that RF may try to exploit or integrate into its broader geopolitical narratives (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The perceived disunity among Western leaders regarding Trump-Putin meeting and a close Putin associate proposing an end to the war (NYT) are developments RF seeks to exploit for its narrative. The US Ambassador to NATO explicitly countering "territory exchange" is a critical blow to RF's diplomatic narrative (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF continues to propagate the idea of a "long-term peaceful settlement" on its terms, leveraging statements from US figures like J.D. Vance (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF aims to portray itself as a global power through statements from Indian journalists on overcoming US pressure with China (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ISW analysis reports Russia will use the Trump-Putin meeting to divide US and Europe, not for meaningful peace efforts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Fighterbomber dedicating a broadcast to the summit further supports this intent (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan's discussion with Trump will be used by RF to support narrative of US-Russia direct negotiations over Ukraine (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports the US Secret Service rented housing in Anchorage for the Putin-Trump meeting, confirming logistical preparations for the summit and reinforcing the RF narrative of its high importance (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

Donetsk Axis (Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk): RF will continue determined offensive operations along the Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk axis, seeking to expand their foothold and advance towards key logistical nodes. They will leverage heavy aerial bombardment (FABs) and FPV drone swarms to attrit Ukrainian defenders and attempt to clear the path for ground advances. Significant effort will be placed on securing identified settlements (e.g., Novo Shakhove, Ivanivka, Pankivka, Vilne, Kucheriv Yar, Zolotyy Kolodez). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Kharkiv Offensive Consolidation: RF forces in northern Kharkiv Oblast will prioritize consolidating their recent limited gains (Strilecha, Krasne, Pylna, Borysivka) and intensifying pressure on Vovchansk and Lyptsi. They will continue to employ EW systems (Pole-21) and UMPK glide bombs to degrade UA defenses and disrupt UA counter-operations, while seeking to fix UA reserves in this sector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Chasiv Yar Main Effort: RF will initiate a major combined arms assault on Chasiv Yar within the next 48-72 hours. This attack will be preceded by intense preparatory fires and extensive use of thermobaric systems (TOS-2) to clear UA defensive positions, particularly in the "Canal" microdistrict. Logistical build-up in the Bakhmut rear area supports this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Deep Strike & IO Integration: RF will continue massed drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure and military targets across the country, particularly in southern and central Ukraine, and border regions (Sumy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia), to degrade UA capabilities and demoralize the population. Concurrently, RF will intensify its psychological warfare campaigns, leveraging the upcoming Putin-Trump summit to sow discord among UA allies and within Ukraine, while projecting an image of RF strength and diplomatic legitimacy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Internal Security Operations: RF will continue efforts to counter UA deep strikes and internal sabotage within its own territory, intensifying counter-UAV and counter-sabotage operations, particularly in border regions and around critical infrastructure. This will include increased information operations to attribute all attacks to "Ukrainian terrorists" and reinforce domestic control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

Decisive Breakthrough in Kharkiv: The Kharkiv offensive achieves greater than anticipated tactical success, forcing a larger-than-planned commitment of UA reserves and creating a significant operational salient that RF exploits to encircle or severely attrit a major UA formation. This would be enabled by an unexpected level of RF combat effectiveness, or a significant miscalculation in UA's defensive posture. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
Exploitation of Diverted Reserves: The Kharkiv offensive is a highly successful operational-level fixing action. Once UA reserves are fully committed north, RF launches an unexpectedly strong secondary offensive on a different axis (e.g., deeper into Sumy Oblast, a renewed push towards Zaporizhzhia city, or a large-scale amphibious assault in Kherson), exploiting thinned-out UA lines to achieve a major operational breakthrough. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
Hybrid Escalation against Western Allies: Beyond current information operations, RF escalates hybrid warfare against NATO members, potentially through increased cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, overt support for destabilizing political movements, or low-signature sabotage operations, especially targeting states perceived as vulnerable or critical to Ukraine's supply lines. This is aimed at fragmenting Western support and diverting resources away from Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

Kharkiv Offensive (Vovchansk/Lyptsi): RF forces will likely attempt to consolidate initial gains and push deeper over the next 24-48 hours. A decision point for UA command regarding the level of reserve commitment will occur if RF breakthroughs appear sustainable or if Vovchansk comes under direct assault.
Chasiv Yar Assault: The major RF assault on Chasiv Yar is estimated to commence within 48-72 hours. UA decision points include pre-positioning additional defensive assets, activating deep strike missions on RF logistics, and contingency plans for withdrawal or counter-encirclement if defenses are breached.
Deep Strikes: UA deep strikes into RF territory will continue over the next 24-48 hours, targeting military-industrial complexes and logistics. RF will continue to implement "Kovyor" plans and deploy additional air defense/EW assets.
Putin-Trump Summit (Alaska): The immediate aftermath of the summit (likely 12-14 AUG 25) will be a critical period for RF information operations, particularly concerning narratives about "peace proposals" and "territory exchanges." UA must be prepared with strong counter-narratives.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

Kharkiv Offensive Objectives: CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Precisely determine the depth and ultimate objectives of the RF Kharkiv offensive. Is it a feint, a buffer zone establishment, or an attempt to draw reserves for a larger operational design elsewhere?
RF Reserve Composition & Location: CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Identify the exact composition, size, and disposition of RF 2nd echelon forces, particularly those capable of exploiting breakthroughs or opening new axes of advance (e.g., in Sumy or Zaporizhzhia).
EW Countermeasures Effectiveness: CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. Assess the specific impact of the Pole-21 EW system on different UA UAV platforms and precision munitions. Develop and test effective counter-EW tactics and technologies.
RF C2 Resilience: CONFIDENCE: LOW. Evaluate RF's ability to maintain effective Command and Control (C2) under sustained UA deep strike pressure on C2 nodes and key personnel.
RF Strategic Intent Post-Summit: CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Analyze the true strategic intentions of RF post-Putin-Trump summit. Will they genuinely pursue negotiations or use any perceived diplomatic leverage to intensify military pressure for better terms?

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

Prioritize ISR for Kharkiv and Chasiv Yar:
- Action: Immediately task all available aerial (UAV, satellite, manned ISR) and SIGINT assets to monitor the northern Kharkiv front and the Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar axis for indications of 2nd echelon RF forces, EW system deployment, and major logistical movements. Focus on real-time tracking of identified 44th Army Corps elements.
- Justification: Early detection of reserve forces or changes in EW/logistical patterns is critical for anticipating breakthroughs and allocating UA resources effectively.
Enhance Counter-EW Capabilities:
- Action: Accelerate the deployment of advanced anti-jamming technologies to UA UAV units operating in Kharkiv. Disseminate updated TTPs for operating in GPS-denied environments and prioritize training for manual/visual navigation of drones. Explore rapid acquisition of EW-resistant UAVs.
- Justification: Mitigating the impact of Pole-21 systems is crucial to preserving UA's ISR and precision strike capabilities, which are essential for defensive operations.
Target RF Logistics in Chasiv Yar Rear:
- Action: Immediately nominate the newly identified ammunition depots within 15km of the Bakhmut frontline for precision long-range strikes (HIMARS/ATACMS). Conduct persistent BDA to confirm effectiveness.
- Justification: Degrading RF ammunition and supply lines will directly impact their ability to sustain a major assault on Chasiv Yar, buying critical time for UA defenders.
Strengthen Information Warfare Defenses:
- Action: Prepare and proactively disseminate robust counter-narratives to RF disinformation campaigns, particularly those related to the Putin-Trump summit and alleged "territory exchanges." Emphasize UA sovereignty and the continued international commitment to Ukraine's territorial integrity.
- Justification: Countering RF information operations is vital for maintaining domestic and international morale, preventing fragmentation of support, and ensuring clarity of strategic objectives.
Reallocate Reserves Strategically:
- Action: While holding the line in Kharkiv, assess the minimum required force to defend against the current RF push. Prioritize keeping strategic reserves available for decisive counter-attacks or reinforcement of critical sectors, especially Chasiv Yar. Avoid overcommitting to Kharkiv if it is assessed to be a fixing operation.
- Justification: Efficient allocation of limited UA reserves is paramount to preventing breakthroughs and enabling future offensive actions.
Reinforce Civilian Air Defense:
- Action: Prioritize the deployment of mobile air defense units to cover critical civilian infrastructure in areas prone to Shahed/missile strikes (Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Chernihiv). Enhance public warning systems and civilian protection measures.
- Justification: Protecting civilian lives and critical infrastructure is essential for maintaining societal resilience and denying RF psychological warfare objectives.

Situation Report