Nightwatch

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) TIME: 060600Z AUG 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast: RF "Geran-2" UAV strike on railway station confirmed. 2 KIA, 13 WIA. Station closed, recovery efforts ongoing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Chasiv Yar Axis (Donetsk Oblast): RF 98th VDV Div continues intensified assaults on 'Kanal' microdistrict and Ivanivske, supported by massed FAB/KAB. T-90M tanks (company-sized) newly identified. Intense close-quarters combat. RF claims "fire pressure" on Konstantinovka (critical logistics hub). RF drone footage claims destruction of UA mortar and ammunition pickup truck near Konstantinovka. RF proxy Yan Gagin (TASS) claims part of Ukrainian rear logistics support remained in "liberated Chasiv Yar," implying RF advances into Chasiv Yar proper and disruption of UA sustainment. UA General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Chasiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for facts and movements; MEDIUM - for Gagin's statement, likely unverified RF propaganda).
Avdiivka-Pokrovsk Axis (Donetsk Oblast): CRITICAL: RF mechanized units have achieved significant tactical advance, with confirmed (DeepStateUA, STARFALL unit) entry into southeastern Ocheretyne and Rodynske. RF forces now entering Rodynske, north of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. This advance severely threatens UA defensive lines and logistics. Pokrovsky direction is epicenter of fighting. RF claims "encirclement of Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad fortification area is in full swing." UA engaging RF at mine east of Rodynske. RF 'AIRNOMADS' (VDV) footage indicates personnel/vehicle movement on Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, confirming exploitation intent. RF military blogger reports increased pressure and flanking maneuvers on Pokrovsk direction. Ukrainian Rada MP Ruslan Gorbenko states UA position in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) is "catastrophic" and RF has complicated UA logistics. RF video confirms tactical medicine and other supplies being delivered to assault units on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, confirming active sustainment for ongoing offensive. Colonelcassad video (02 AUG) claims FPV drone KVN struck and destroyed a masked UA T-64BV tank in Pokrovsk, implying continued RF targeting of UA armor. UPDATE: UA General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Pokrovsk, Popiv Yar, Volodymyrivka, Boykivka, Suvorove, Kotlyne, Novoekonomichne, Muravka, Myrolubivka, Mykolayivka, Rodynske, Sukhetske, Dachne, Promin, Molodetske, Lysivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Novoukrayinka, Oleksiyivka and towards Novopavlivka. NEW: ASTRA reports 1 civilian KIA in Pokrovsk due to RF strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for all facts and movements; MEDIUM - for Gorbenko statement; HIGH - for RF supply delivery; HIGH - for Colonelcassad video and claim of specific FPV drone type and target; HIGH - for new UA General Staff report; HIGH - for ASTRA civilian casualty report).
Zaporizhzhia Front: Continued localized ground engagements and significant aerial bombardment. RF strikes resulted in 2 KIA. RF shifted from large-scale mechanized assaults to repeated infiltration attempts by 8-10 man infantry groups near Robotyne, heavily supported by FPV drones for reconnaissance and direct fire. Lancet loitering munition use against UA artillery systematic and widespread. RF drone footage claims liquidation of UA positions on occupied left bank of Dnipro, Kherson Oblast. RF video claims assault on Stepnogorsk by RF SpN and paratroopers. Ballistic missile threat alert issued by Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration and RBC-Ukraine, now lifted. Spokesperson for Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine, Vladyslav Voloshyn (RBC-Ukraine), reports RF conducting small assaults and regrouping in Zaporizhzhia direction. Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Ivan Fedorov, OBA Head). Air Force of Ukraine reports guided aerial bomb launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia. UPDATE: UA Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 2 KIA, 10 WIA (including 4 children) from a recent attack. RF aviation strike on Zaporizhzhia district previously reported 3 WIA, buildings damaged. ASTRA reports 2 KIA, 3 WIA in Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to RF attacks over the past day. NEW: Воин DV video shows RF 35th Army 'Vostok' Group UAV operators striking UA personnel and vehicles in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UPDATE: UA Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports increased casualties to 12 WIA. Photo evidence provided of consequences of RF strike on Zaporizhzhia district, showing damaged buildings. NEW: RBC-Ukraine photo messages and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS photo messages confirm 2 KIA and 12 WIA in Zaporizhzhia district from a recent attack, with photos showing damaged civilian structures (recreation base). Air Force of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in Zaporizhzhia region, which may be target designators. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for general activity; HIGH - for Voloshyn statement; HIGH - for explosion report; HIGH - for new FAB report; HIGH - for update; HIGH - for ASTRA casualty report; HIGH - for OBA updated casualty report; HIGH - for new RF video; HIGH - for updated casualty count and photo evidence; HIGH - for new RBC-Ukraine/ЦАПЛІЄНКО photo messages and casualty update; HIGH - for new Air Force report).
Kherson Oblast: RF (Dva Mayora) aerial footage shows artillery/missile strikes on residential area with significant destruction in Daryivka. RF drone footage claims liquidation of UA positions on occupied left bank of Dnipro, Kherson Oblast. UA tactical aviation reportedly struck a concentration of RF drone operators terrorizing civilians in Kherson region. RF proxy "Russian Kherson" claims Kyiv is evacuating civilians from the right bank of Dnipro for defense organization. TASS reports residents of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts are actively reporting UA coordinates to RF forces. Two Mayora video shows explosions near Antonovsky Bridge on RF-controlled side, likely RF shelling of UA positions. UA General Staff reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Olhivka, Kozatske, Daryivka of Kherson region. NEW: UA Southern Defense Forces report RF continues to attempt to gain foothold in Dnipro island zone. UA Southern Defense Forces also confirm inflicting significant losses on the enemy (photos of destroyed equipment and personnel). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for RF strikes/footage; MEDIUM - for UA claim; MEDIUM - for RF proxy claim, likely propaganda; HIGH - for TASS report on intel sharing; HIGH - for Two Mayora video of Antonovsky Bridge; HIGH - for new UA report; HIGH - for new UA Southern Defense Forces report of RF losses).
Kharkiv Oblast: Active engagements persist. Vovchansk, Kupyansk, and Donetsk/Kharkiv regions under RF guided aerial bomb attacks. RF attacked Kupyansk with air bombs, 3 trapped in basement. RF (TASS, Marochko) previously claimed RF Army commenced "urban battles" in Kupyansk. UA (OTU "Kharkiv," 58th Separate Motorized Brigade) repelled RF attempts to assault former Hoptivka border crossing (04 AUG). RF military blogger (Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes drone footage of vehicles struck near Kupyansk. RF attacked Kharkiv city with a drone, targeting a gas station. 20-year-old female civilian injured in Kharkiv drone attack. Colonelcassad video claims FPV drones "VT-40" and "KVN" destroyed enemy transport and personnel (l/s) of UA Armed Forces, including a "Bukhanka" (UA van) filled with ammunition, in the Kharkiv direction. TASS reports women soldiers from UA leave recalled to Kharkiv Oblast for deployment. UA General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk and Fyholivka (South Slobozhansky/Kharkiv direction) and near Radkivka, Holubivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove and towards Novoplatonivka (Kupyansk direction). NEW: Kharkiv Oblast Administration Head Oleh Syniehubov reports Kharkiv city and 5 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were struck by RF yesterday. Air Force of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in Kharkiv region, which may be target designators. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for all facts; HIGH - for Colonelcassad video content and claim of specific FPV drone types and target; MEDIUM - for new TASS report, likely propaganda for demoralization, but indicates RF intelligence interest in UA personnel movements; HIGH - for UA General Staff reports; HIGH - for new Kharkiv ODA report; HIGH - for new Air Force report).
Siversk Axis (Donetsk Oblast): UA (BUTUSOV PLUS) footage from 'Incognito' battalion (54th Sep Mech Bde) shows close-quarters drone combat. RF (TASS) claims taking Krasnyi Lyman and Siversk will reduce UA strikes on Kreminna. RF 103rd regiment claims advance towards Konstantinovka, engaging UA infantry. RF tactical aviation launched guided aerial bombs on Donetsk Oblast. RF drone and artillery operators claim to have destroyed three UA UAV control points near Siversk. RF video showcases the "combat commonwealth" of ZALA Lancet UAVs and "Zoopark" radar system. UA General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka and towards Siversk. UA General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Olhivka, Novyy Myr, Hluschenkove, Torske, Serebryanka, Hryhorivka, Kolodyazi and towards Cherneschyny, Seredne, Shandryholove (Lyman direction). NEW: TASS (Marochko) reports RF forces increased pressure on UA positions in southern Kremensky forests near Hryhorivka and Serebryanka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for UA combat/RF claims; MEDIUM - for RF claims of specific targets destroyed; HIGH - for UA General Staff reports; HIGH - for new TASS report).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Nikopol district attacked by UAVs and artillery. Civilian damage. UA OBA reports continued RF attacks on Nikopol, Pokrovsk, Marhanets communities with drones and artillery. TASS claims 20 personnel destroyed at UA command post in Novoselivka. TASS (Russian power structures) claim UA forces are retreating from positions in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for UA report; MEDIUM - for TASS claims, likely exaggerated).
Sumy Oblast: UA achieved successes in liberating territory in Sumy Oblast and continues combat operations in Kursk Oblast. RF reports drone strikes by "Anvar" special detachment in Sumy border region. UA Border Guard Brigade "Steel Border" claims interception of 3 Supercam and 2 Zala drones in Sumy Oblast. Parts of Sumy temporarily without power due to RF attack. UA Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bomb launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. RF SpN "Anvar" claims to be burning UA equipment and positions near the border in support of RF advance. UA General Staff reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Khliborob of Sumy region. NEW: UA General Staff reports repelling 13 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. Air Force of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in Sumy region, which may be target designators. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for all; MEDIUM - for new RF SpN claim of direct combat effectiveness; MEDIUM - for TASS claim of mercenaries in Sumy Oblast, likely propaganda; HIGH - for new UA General Staff report; HIGH - for new Air Force report).
Luhansk People's Republic (LNR): RF reports 4 Svatovo water utility employees KIA, 2 WIA by UA UAV strike. Resident of Svatovo died after UA UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for RF reports; MEDIUM - for attribution to UA UAV).
Kursk Oblast (RF): UA continues combat operations in Kursk Oblast. RF (WarGonzo) reports "foreign terror" with mercenaries killing civilians, likely RF info op. RF SpN "Akhmat" unit 'Kursk' claims offensive action, mentioning crossing into 'Kurcha's region'. TASS reports Alexander Khinshtein, acting governor of Kursk, stated all participants in the "invasion" of Kursk Oblast will be punished. TASS reports 'Kursk residents lit lamps and laid out crane figures in memory of the victims of the Armed Forces of Ukraine invasion into the region'. TASS (Khinshtein) states "Ukrainian Armed Forces behaved like real occupiers" in Kursk Oblast. UA Operativny ZSU provides archival footage of SSO operations in Kursk region, including sabotage and engagements. UA General Staff commemorates August 6, 2024, as the start of the Kursk offensive operation, the first time full-scale war entered RF territory. NEW: UA Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi states over 77,000 RF servicemen (including 4,000 DPRK citizens) killed and wounded, and 7236 units of RF equipment destroyed/damaged in the Kursk grouping of forces' area of responsibility over the past year. NEW: Дневник Десантника (RF) propaganda states "Тихий" and "Сибиль" saved civilians in Kursk during "enemy attack." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for UA action; MEDIUM - for RF claims and specific unit actions; HIGH for Khinshtein statement and TASS propaganda; HIGH - for UA SSO footage and General Staff commemoration; HIGH - for new Syrskyi statement; HIGH - for new RF propaganda).
Rostov Oblast (RF): UA (Оперативний ЗСУ) claims RF PVO missile struck RF military unit 7km from Bataysk, Rostov Oblast. Video/photo evidence of large smoke plume. RF (ASTRA) also reports strong explosion. Explosion at military unit in Bataysk, Rostov Oblast, ~18:25 local time. Likely fratricide or malfunction. РБК-Україна reports 'Russians complain that unknown drones again attacked Trostyanska railway station in Rostov region. There is allegedly a fire'. ASTRA also reports 'Second strike on the territory of the Trostyanska railway station in Rostov region inflicted in the last 24 hours. A fire broke out'. Videos show significant fires. RF PVO forces repelled an attack in one city and three districts of Rostov Oblast. Nearly 200 people without power in Zolotyarevka Khutor due to UAV attack. Rostov Oblast Governor reports 'repelled attack of unknown drones this night'. "Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны" reports enemy attacked Rostov Oblast, with blurry footage of projectile/debris. UPDATE: RF MoD claims 51 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions (including Crimea) overnight. ASTRA confirms 51 UAVs downed. "Dnevnik Desantnika" (RF) claims 51 UAVs destroyed by PVO. NEW: Операция Z reports 51 Ukrainian drones downed over 5 RF regions (reiterating RF MoD claim). NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms strike on Tatsinskaya railway junction in Rostov Oblast, showing large explosion and fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for original incident; HIGH - for drone strike confirmation; HIGH - for RF PVO report and power outage; HIGH - for Governor report; HIGH - for military blogger report; MEDIUM - for new RF MoD/ASTRA/Dnevnik Desantnika claims, likely exaggerated on UA losses; HIGH - for new RF military blogger report; HIGH - for new ЦАПЛІЄНКО video).
Internal RF Analysis: RF attempts to conceal sensitive data from strategic industries due to sanctions. Chechen troops' performance discussed. Kadyrov ordered intensified efforts to combat slander/disinformation. RF recruitment video advertises 5.5M rubles for first year of service. Russia considering "limited air truce" or "goodwill gesture" for Trump, involving halt to drone/missile strikes, while continuing ground war. Peskov declined comment. Bloomberg report on RF "air truce" consideration confirmed via photo message. Putin extends volunteer support regime in Donbas and Novorossiya to all border regions. Video shows RF forces in combat operations with armored vehicles and infantry. RF military blogger reports father in FSO urgently called to meeting, told to pack "red buttons and drones," and buy iodine for two weeks. RF military blogger criticizes "air truce" idea. US State Department confirms Witkoff visit to RF "this week," agenda undisclosed. Mother and daughter sentenced to 12 years for "treason" in Sevastopol. Z-blogger "Trinadtsatiy" claims armed men are looking for him. Public collection for "frontline vehicles" by military bloggers confirms continued reliance on volunteer support for specific equipment. Video from 20th Army, Group 'Zapad', shows a tank with additional protection firing its main gun and in combat operations. Reuters reports Witkoff expects to meet with RF leadership on August 6. Donald Trump publicly stated he is trying to "get the US out of the military conflict in Ukraine" and that a meeting with Russia is scheduled for "tomorrow." TASS reports Trump said he didn't know about Ghislaine Maxwell's prison transfer. Операция Z/Военкоры Русской Весны reports US State Dept. urges no premature conclusions on sanctions and that Trump is set for diplomatic resolution. TASS reports Sergei Mironov proposes zeroing out mortgage rates for large families and gradual mortgage repayment for families with children. TASS reports Milonov called to stop alcohol delivery services. TASS reports Brad Pitt bought a mansion in Los Angeles for $12 million. In Tula Oblast, 4 KIA due to detonation of explosive device. Criminal case opened. TASS reports on a civilian legal proceeding regarding the "Tverskie terrorists Islomovye" (Crocus attack). TASS reports that the displacement of Kamchatka after an earthquake will not affect the peninsula's climate. TASS photo message claims pharmaceutical giants tried to hide the superiority of "Sputnik V" vaccine. TASS reports that passengers are entitled to free water, food, and hotel accommodation for long flight delays. TASS reports American actress Kelly Mack died. TASS reports scammers can steal logins/passwords via QR-code Wi-Fi in cafes. TASS reports Boris Chernyshov (Duma Deputy Speaker) proposed placing "frightening images" on IQOS packaging due to health concerns for young smokers. TASS reports US authorities auctioned off the yacht "Amadea," allegedly belonging to RF Senator Suleiman Kerimov. TASS reports average traffic fines in Russia decreased by 4% to 990 rubles in Q2. TASS (Peskov) states the record-long absence of a meeting between RF and US leaders is "nothing special" after the Biden administration. TASS reports an unknown man on a jet ski hit two girls in Primorye; one moderately injured. TASS reports bypass road construction began in Amur region after Lena highway collapse; to be completed by August 9. TASS reports a Ukrainian POW escaped from a unit to seek military-political asylum in Russia. This is likely an RF information operation. Colonelcassad releases video of RF ATGM/recoilless rifle teams destroying UA armored vehicles and firing positions using "roaming gun" tactics, reported by RF MoD. TASS reports China is unlikely to stop oil purchases from Russia despite Trump's threats, according to South China Morning Post experts. TASS confirms plane, presumably carrying a US special envoy, entered Russian airspace. UPDATE: ASTRA reports 4 KIA in Tula Oblast due to grenade explosion by previously convicted servicemember returned from war. News of Moscow Public Chamber proposing compensation for flight delays due to "carpet plan" suggests widespread impact of drone activity. New TASS report shows a civilian convoy with police escort, confirming routine internal traffic. News of IQOS packaging proposal is domestic policy. ASTRA reports on 76-year-old pensioner forced to demolish toilet, indicating domestic social issues. Kotsnews photo dated "Year since the invasion" is propaganda, no military relevance. New TASS report of Witkoff and Dmitriev walking in a park confirms high-level diplomatic meeting, not military activity. News of decreased alcohol consumption in Moscow is social data, no military relevance. NEW: ASTRA releases video of Witkoff "walking" in Moscow, confirming his presence in the capital. NEW: RF media (Полиция Хабаровского края) releases video on cyber security and fraud prevention, indicating internal police focus on domestic issues. NEW: Новости Москвы reports a threefold increase in demand for AI directors in Russia, indicating a focus on technological development. NEW: TASS reports a magnitude 5.7 earthquake in Kamchatka (low military relevance). NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 makes a general greeting to "family" (unclear military relevance). NEW: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны shares video of Witkoff's arrival, convoy, and walking, confirming high-level diplomatic activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for confirmed events/reports; MEDIUM - for unverified internal RF reports/claims; LOW - for general propaganda; HIGH - for internal debate/sentiment; HIGH for Trump's statements and RF media reaction; MEDIUM for Mironov proposal relevance; HIGH for Milonov alcohol delivery proposal; LOW for Brad Pitt news; HIGH for Tula incident; HIGH for TASS report on Crocus attack trial, low military relevance; LOW for Kamchatka and Sputnik V; HIGH for flight delay compensation; LOW for Kelly Mack and QR-code Wi-Fi news; HIGH for TASS reports on IQOS, yacht, traffic fines, Peskov's statement, jet ski incident, and bypass road; HIGH - for TASS POW report, likely propaganda; HIGH - for Colonelcassad video and claim; HIGH - for TASS report on China oil; HIGH - for TASS report on US special envoy; HIGH - for ASTRA update; HIGH - for Moscow Public Chamber report; LOW - for general TASS and ASTRA domestic reports; HIGH - for new ASTRA video; LOW - for new police video; LOW - for new AI report; LOW - for new Kamchatka earthquake; LOW - for new RF social media post; HIGH - for new Операция Z videos).
Moldova/Gagauzia: RF sources report on Head of Gagauzia's alleged imprisonment, framed as "political reprisal" by Zakharova. TASS reports Victor Vodolatsky's opinion that Eugenie Gutsul's verdict will allow Maia Sandu to pressure the local population to prevent mass protests. NEW: TASS reports Vodolatsky states Kyiv declared war on children by adding them to the Myrotvorets extremist website (referencing a long-standing RF info op). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for reports; MEDIUM - for Vodolatsky's opinion as unverified political commentary; HIGH - for new TASS propaganda).
Belarus: UA reports Belarus seeking to change law on war, making "aggression against RF" a reason for mobilization. Belarus is considering implementing martial law due to the war in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
India-Russia Relations: Indian NSA Ajit Doval in Moscow. RF Dep Def Min Fomin met Indian Ambassador to discuss bilateral defense cooperation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Lithuania: "Gerbera" type drone with 2kg explosives fell in Lithuania last week. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Odessa Oblast: Man detained for fatally wounding police officer. Reports 1 "moped" (UAV) approaching Izmail. Reports 15 "mopeds" in the sea, far from shore. Николаевский Ванёк reports 26 "mopeds" flying from Tatarbunary towards Izmail district. Subsequent report from Николаевский Ванёк states "quantity of mopeds decreased to 18." Николаевский Ванёк reports "отбой" (all clear) for mopeds. Air Force of Ukraine confirms "Відбій загрози ударних БпЛА" (All clear for attack UAV threat). Video shows large fire near Orlivka, Odessa Oblast due to "Shahed" strikes, visible from Romania. "Dnevnik Desantnika" (RF) claims RF Geran-2 UAVs struck a gas distribution station near Odessa overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for all facts; LOW - for internal law enforcement military relevance; HIGH for drone report and air defense engagement).
Mykolaiv Oblast: Threat of UAVs in Mykolaiv Oblast. Air Force warns of drone threat to Mykolaiv Oblast. UA Air Force confirms "відбій загрози застосування дронів" (all clear for drone threat). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Makeyevka (Occupied Donetsk): Two water tankers from Khanty-Mansiysk region arrived to address water shortages. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
European Union: British report states Russian media still accessible in EU despite sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH, LOW tactical relevance).
Estonia: Estonian Prosecutor's Office reveals embezzlement of €450,000 in "Slava Ukraini" NGO donations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH, LOW tactical relevance).
Vologda Oblast (RF): "Red and White" company seeking to reopen stores through court. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH, LOW military relevance).
Smolensk, Orlov, Tver, Saratov, Volgograd, Astrakhan, Bryansk, Voronezh Oblasts, Krasnodar Krai (RF): Reporting on drone security, implying persistent drone activity. RBC-Ukraine reports multiple explosions in Bryansk (RF) this morning, with Russians complaining of unknown drone attack. Video footage shows smoke plumes/detonations. Bryansk Governor reports 16 enemy UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for general activity; HIGH - for drone attack report and footage; HIGH - for Bryansk Governor report).
Zhytomyr: Police investigating explosion, one killed, one wounded. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH, LOW military relevance).
Luhansk-Moscow Highway: Video shows a bus crash on the "illegal route Luhansk-Moscow." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH, LOW direct military relevance).
Kyiv: Air alarm declared due to threat of ballistic weapons. All clear. Air alarm again declared due to threat of ballistic weapons. Air alarm in Kyiv due to ballistic threat has been lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Bryansk Oblast (RF): RF MoD PVO detected and destroyed a fixed-wing UAV. RBC-Ukraine reports multiple explosions in Bryansk (RF) this morning, with Russians complaining of unknown drone attack. Video footage shows smoke plumes/detonations. Bryansk Governor reports 16 enemy UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for previous report; HIGH - for drone attack report and footage; HIGH - for Bryansk Governor report).
Dominican Republic: TASS reports first flights between Russia and Dominican Republic may begin in winter. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH, LOW military relevance).
Unidentified Location: Colonelcassad publishes photo of Radar illumination and guidance station (RPN) 9S36 and launcher-loader (PZU) 9A316 from the 9K317 "Buk-M2" medium-range air defense system protecting the sky in the "Center" group of forces' area of responsibility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Unidentified Location: Colonelcassad publishes video claiming "military personnel of the 1194th motorized rifle regiment of the 'Southern' group of forces destroyed a 'RAK-SA-12' multiple rocket launcher system manufactured in Croatia." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for video content; MEDIUM - for specific target destruction claim).
Washington Approves New Military Aid Package: Pentagon confirmed new military aid package to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
TASS reports on Ukrainian POW: Video of Ukrainian POW claiming he is ready to stay in Russian prison rather than return to Ukraine, used for RF propaganda. TASS releases video of another Ukrainian POW claiming 20 people from Latin America serve in "Kraken" national battalion. TASS releases video of Ukrainian POW claiming to have escaped from a unit to seek military-political asylum in Russia, likely a propaganda effort. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for propaganda content; MEDIUM - for veracity of claim; HIGH - for TASS POW propaganda).
TASS on US-RF Presidential Meetings: TASS reports no in-person meeting between Russian and US presidents in first six months after inauguration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
TASS on Trump's Stance on Sanctions: TASS reports Democratic senators believe sanctions against Russia weakened under Trump. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for report of opinion).
Southern Ukraine (General): НгП раZVедка channel video captures a sunrise over a silhouetted landscape, with commentary implying ongoing combat or strikes. A Colonelcassad patch image with Cyrillic script (Cerberus/СЕВЕР) depicting a stylized figure wielding a weapon and severed head. Military map from "@RYBAR" (Dva Mayora) for August 5, 2025, shows "Zone of Special Military Operations" with territorial control and military actions. "Dnevnik Desantnika" (RF) video shows truck-mounted rocket launcher firing multiple rockets and aerial view of shelling in wooded area, indicative of active RF combat operations. WarGonzo provides a map of the Zaporizhzhian front, which will require further analysis. NEW: UA General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Piddubne, Voskresenka, Shevchenko, Zelenyy Hay, Zelene Pole, Novodarivka and towards Ivanivka, Novoivanivka on Novopavlivka direction. NEW: UA General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Stepove and Plavni on Orikhiv direction. NEW: UA General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Temyrivka on Huliaipole direction. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of UA 7th Airborne Division paratroopers from Zaporizhzhia direction requesting donations for drones and Starlink, confirming material needs. NEW: Two Mayora video confirms donations of radio stations to RF SpN Española, showing continued reliance on private/volunteer funding for communication equipment. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - due to ambiguity; MEDIUM - for patch analysis; HIGH - for map analysis; HIGH - for new RF video of combat operations; HIGH - for WarGonzo map; HIGH - for new UA General Staff reports; HIGH - for new Дневник Десантника video and request; HIGH - for new Two Mayora video).
Trump Diplomacy: TASS reports Trump will meet with Aliyev and Pashinyan in US. TASS reports Trump named US Vice President J.D. Vance as his probable successor for the 2028 elections. Trump discusses possibility of 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian energy resources. Witkoff confirmed to have arrived in Moscow. NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports Trump will make a statement today. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Trump will make a statement today at 23:30 Kyiv time from the Oval Office (White House source). NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS photo message confirms Trump special envoy Witkoff arrived in Moscow. NEW: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны shares video of Witkoff's arrival, convoy, and walking, confirming high-level diplomatic activity. NEW: STERNENKO photo message shows Witkoff walking in Moscow, reinforcing confirmation of his presence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH, LOW tactical relevance; HIGH - for new Trump tariffs statement and Witkoff arrival; HIGH - for new Trump statement reports; HIGH - for new ЦАПЛІЄНКО photo message; HIGH - for new Операция Z videos; HIGH - for new STERNENKO photo message).
Poland: TASS reports newly elected Polish President Nawrocki takes a hard line against Germany, EU, and Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Israel/Gaza (External): RBC-Ukraine reports British intelligence aircraft are assisting Israel in locating hostages in Gaza. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for report; LOW - for direct tactical relevance to Ukraine).
Civilians/Internal RF: TASS reports on Deputy Gavrilov explaining how to act when fraudsters issue a loan. News of Khabarovsk police activity is domestic. ASTRA video on pensioner forced to demolish toilet is domestic. NEW: Полиция Хабаровского края video discusses cyber security and fraud prevention (domestic police focus). NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts images of custom leather goods, indicating civilian economic activity or small business promotion, no military relevance. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація videos and photos showing minute of silence for fallen Ukrainian personnel/civilians, indicating national mourning and remembrance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH, LOW military relevance; LOW - for new police video; LOW - for new АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts; HIGH - for new ЦАПЛІЄНКО and Zaporizhzhia ODA videos).
Unidentified Location: TASS reports that FPV drones "Boomerang" have started being used in all directions of the "special operation," citing a source in the Russian defense industry complex. Colonelcassad releases new video claiming special forces engaging UA positions, equipment and drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for report; MEDIUM - for veracity of claim or widespread adoption; HIGH - for Colonelcassad video).
Yanvarske (DPR): TASS (Andrey Marochko) states the loss of Yanvarske forces UA to transfer reserves to the western borders of the DPR to contain the RF army, implying significant RF advance in this area and pressure on UA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for Marochko's statement, MEDIUM - for actual UA troop movement due to unverified RF claim of "loss").
Arizona, USA (External): CNN reports 4 people died in medical plane crash in Arizona. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for report, LOW military relevance).
Kryvyi Rih: Mayor Oleksandr Vilkul reports situation controlled as of 060430Z AUG 25. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Chernihiv Oblast: NEW: Air Force of Ukraine reports reconnaissance UAV activity in Chernihiv suburbs, with assets deployed to shoot it down. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
UA Internal General Staff: NEW: ОТУ "Харків" shares updated General Staff report on enemy losses (06.08.25), showing continued high RF attrition. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares General Staff report on combat losses (08:00 AM). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
UA Military Social Media: NEW: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UA Airmobile Forces) shares photo with caption "Preparing two surprises for Russians, they will die in batches", indicating high morale and intent to inflict heavy casualties. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows UA drone dropping grenade on RF "crane" (drone), indicating successful counter-drone operations in Donetsk Oblast. NEW: ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» video confirms successful engagement of RF Zala and Supercam drones, further reinforcing UA air defense capabilities. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ video shows UA FPV drone impacting RF soldier with "stick," indicating continued FPV drone use and psychological warfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

General weather conditions remain conducive for drone operations. Localized rain in Donetsk may cause minor ground mobility issues. Heavy fog reported on Luhansk-Moscow highway. Visibility of Shahed strike fire from Romania indicates clear conditions for aerial bombardment. Ballistic missile threat alert in Zaporizhzhia and other regions, with immediate warning from Oblast Military Administration and Air Force, now cleared. Nighttime drone attacks in Bryansk and Rostov suggest clear nocturnal conditions for aerial operations. Confirmed RF aviation strike in Zaporizhzhia suggests clear daytime conditions for fixed-wing operations. NEW: Воин DV video of drone strike shows clear conditions for UAV operations in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. New photo/video evidence of damage in Zaporizhzhia suggests clear skies for precision targeting. Air Force of Ukraine reports active reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv, confirming conditions for aerial intelligence gathering. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF Forces:
- Offensive Operations: Maintaining high tempo on Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka-Pokrovsk axes. Claims of "fire pressure" on Konstantinovka and "encirclement" of Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad. Confirmed entry into Rodynske confirms significant advance. Confirmed air bomb attack on Kupyansk indicates intensified push. Continued combined arms support and drone operations. Introduction of T-90M tanks at Chasiv Yar. RF 'AIRNOMADS' (VDV) footage indicates movement on Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. RF 103rd regiment claims advance towards Konstantinovka. RF drone footage claims liquidation of UA positions on occupied left bank of Dnipro, Kherson Oblast. RF video claims assault on Stepnogorsk by RF SpN and paratroopers. RF video showcases "Zoopark" radar and Lancet UAV cooperation. RF video confirms supply delivery to assault units on Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. RF claims destruction of a Croatian-made RAK-SA-12 MLRS, supported by drone footage. TASS reports FPV drones "Boomerang" are used in all directions. Colonelcassad video claims FPV drones "VT-40" and "KVN" destroyed enemy transport and personnel in Kharkiv direction. Colonelcassad video (02 AUG) claims FPV drone KVN struck and destroyed a masked UA T-64BV tank in Pokrovsk. Spokesperson for Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine, Vladyslav Voloshyn (RBC-Ukraine), reports RF conducting small assaults and regrouping in Zaporizhzhia direction. TASS (Andrey Marochko) states the loss of Yanvarske forces UA to transfer reserves to the western borders of the DPR to contain the RF army. Colonelcassad reports RF ATGM/recoilless rifle teams destroying UA armored vehicles and firing positions using "roaming gun" tactics. RF SpN "Anvar" claims to be burning UA equipment and positions near the Sumy border in support of RF advance. "Dnevnik Desantnika" (RF) video shows truck-mounted rocket launcher firing multiple rockets and aerial view of shelling in wooded area, indicative of active RF combat operations. Colonelcassad releases new video claiming special forces engaging UA positions, equipment and drones. TASS (Russian power structures) claim UA forces are retreating from positions in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Rybar video map analysis confirms RF advances in Volchansk, Kharkiv region. WarGonzo provides a map of the Zaporizhzhian front, which likely details RF advances. NEW: Воин DV video shows RF 35th Army 'Vostok' Group UAV operators striking UA personnel and vehicles in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. NEW: Операция Z reports 51 Ukrainian drones downed over 5 RF regions. NEW: TASS (Marochko) reports RF forces increased pressure on UA positions in southern Kremensky forests near Hryhorivka and Serebryanka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for observed actions; MEDIUM - for RF claims of targets destroyed; HIGH for RF video content, supply delivery, and MLRS strike; MEDIUM for new FPV drone claim; HIGH for Colonelcassad video; HIGH for Voloshyn statement; HIGH for Marochko's statement; HIGH - for new Colonelcassad report; MEDIUM - for new RF SpN claim; HIGH - for new RF combat video; MEDIUM - for new RF MoD/ASTRA/Dnevnik Desantnika claims, likely exaggerated on UA losses; HIGH - for new Colonelcassad video; MEDIUM - for TASS retreat claim; HIGH - for Rybar map; HIGH - for WarGonzo map; HIGH - for new RF video; HIGH - for new RF military blogger report; HIGH - for new TASS report).
- Deep Strike Capability: Sustained massed UAV strikes (Lozova) and missile strikes. Guided aerial bombs actively employed in Donetsk, Kharkiv (Kupyansk confirmed), Kherson, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia. RF targeting UA C2/UAV control points in rear confirmed. RF considering "limited air truce." RF drone and artillery operators claim to have destroyed three UA UAV control points near Siversk. RF attacked Kharkiv city with a drone. Reports 15 "mopeds" (UAVs) in the sea off Mykolaiv, and 1 near Izmail. UAV threat in Mykolaiv Oblast. Kyiv reported ballistic missile threat. Lancet-3 strike on UA 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer near Platonovka confirmed. Николаевский Ванёк reports initial 26 "mopeds" flying from Tatarbunary towards Izmail district, later reduced to 18. LATEST UPDATE: "All clear" for drone threats in Mykolaiv and Odesa regions. RF claims unknown drones again attacked Trostyanska railway station in Rostov region; fire confirmed. Confirmed Shahed drone strikes near Orlivka, Odessa Oblast. Ballistic missile threat alert in Zaporizhzhia and other regions, now cleared. UA Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bomb launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF PVO forces repelled an attack in one city and three districts of Rostov Oblast. Nearly 200 people without power in Zolotyarevka Khutor due to UAV attack. Air Force of Ukraine reports guided aerial bomb launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia. Confirmed RF aviation strike on Zaporizhzhia district, buildings damaged, 3 WIA. "Dnevnik Desantnika" (RF) claims RF Geran-2 UAVs struck a gas distribution station near Odessa overnight. Bryansk Governor reports 16 enemy UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast overnight. RF MoD claims 51 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions (including Crimea) overnight. ASTRA confirms 51 UAVs downed. "Dnevnik Desantnika" (RF) claims 51 UAVs destroyed by PVO. UA General Staff reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Khliborob of Sumy region, Olhivka, Kozatske, Daryivka of Kherson region. NEW: Воин DV video shows RF 35th Army 'Vostok' Group UAV operators striking UA personnel and vehicles in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms strike on Tatsinskaya railway junction in Rostov Oblast, showing large explosion and fire. Air Force of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv, which may be target designators. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for confirmed strikes; MEDIUM - for air truce impact; HIGH for drone report and air defense engagement; HIGH for drone strike on Rostov; HIGH for Shahed strike; HIGH for ballistic missile threat and its subsequent clearance; HIGH for FAB strikes on Sumy; HIGH - for Zaporizhzhia explosion; HIGH - for RF PVO report; HIGH - for FAB on Zaporizhzhia; HIGH - for Bryansk drone attack; HIGH - for Rostov Governor report; HIGH - for update; HIGH - for new RF strike claim; HIGH - for Bryansk Governor report; MEDIUM - for new RF MoD/ASTRA/Dnevnik Desantnika claims, likely exaggerated on UA losses; HIGH - for new UA General Staff report; HIGH - for new RF video; HIGH - for new ЦАПЛІЄНКО video; HIGH - for new Air Force report).
- Air Defense: RF Buk-M2 medium-range air defense systems (9S36 RPN and 9A316 PZU) observed protecting the sky in the "Center" group of forces' area of responsibility. RF PVO forces repelled an attack in one city and three districts of Rostov Oblast. Rostov Oblast Governor reports 'repelled attack of unknown drones this night'. RF MoD claims 51 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions (including Crimea) overnight. ASTRA confirms 51 UAVs downed. Bryansk Governor reports 16 enemy UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast overnight. "Dnevnik Desantnika" (RF) claims 51 UAVs destroyed by PVO. NEW: Операция Z reports 51 Ukrainian drones downed over 5 RF regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for systems/reports; MEDIUM - for claimed numbers shot down, likely exaggerated on UA losses; HIGH - for new RF military blogger report).
- Logistics & Personnel Issues: Generally sufficient. Localized reliance on non-governmental funding for some units. Sanctions impacting strategic industries, prompting data concealment. RF recruitment video offers 5.5M rubles. Russia delivering water to occupied Makeyevka via tankers. Potential US sanctions on "shadow fleet" if ceasefire not met by Friday. RF military blogger's report suggests internal RF elite concern about potential escalation. Public collection for "frontline vehicles" confirms continued reliance on volunteer support. Bus crash on Luhansk-Moscow route suggests issues with transportation/logistics on occupied territory. RF video confirms tactical medicine and other supplies being delivered to assault units on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. Confirmed drone strikes on Trostyanska railway station in Rostov Oblast directly target RF railway logistics infrastructure. TASS reports that passengers are entitled to free water, food, and hotel accommodation for long flight delays. RF proxy Yan Gagin's claim about UA rear logistics remaining in "liberated Chasiv Yar" if true, implies RF success in disrupting UA sustainment. Nearly 200 people without power in Zolotyarevka Khutor, Rostov Oblast, due to UAV attack, indicating localized disruption. TASS reports bypass road construction began in Amur region after Lena highway collapse; to be completed by August 9, demonstrating RF infrastructure repair capability for domestic issues. TASS reports China unlikely to stop oil purchases from Russia despite Trump's threats, indicating continued strategic resource access for RF. TASS reports women soldiers from UA leave recalled to Kharkiv Oblast for deployment, implying RF intelligence on UA personnel. Likely propaganda to demoralize but indicates focus. Moscow Public Chamber proposing compensation for flight delays due to "carpet plan" suggests widespread impact of drone activity on civilian air travel. TASS shows civilian convoy with police escort, indicating normal internal logistics. NEW: Новости Москвы reports a threefold increase in demand for AI directors in Russia, indicating a focus on technological development, potentially for military applications. NEW: Two Mayora video confirms donations of radio stations to RF SpN Española, showing continued reliance on private/volunteer funding for communication equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for overall capability and trends; MEDIUM - for unverified reports on internal RF sentiment; HIGH for RF supply delivery; HIGH for impact of new strike on logistics; HIGH for managing public inconvenience; LOW - for Gagin's claim as it is unverified and likely propaganda; HIGH - for Rostov power outage; HIGH - for bypass road construction; HIGH - for China oil; MEDIUM - for new TASS report; HIGH - for Moscow Public Chamber report; HIGH - for TASS civilian convoy; LOW - for new AI report; HIGH - for new Two Mayora video).
- Electronic Warfare (EW): Robust EW capabilities, particularly Pole-21 complexes, effectively disrupting GPS-guided systems and drone communications. UA request for Starlink indicates RF EW effectiveness. RF video highlights the "combat commonwealth" of ZALA Lancet UAVs and "Zoopark" radar system. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
UA Forces:
- Air Defense: Effective in intercepting RF UAVs (29/46 previously reported). Development of "Mongoose" jet interceptor drone. Active air alerts. UA drone engaging RF kamikaze drone. "Steel Border" Bde intercepted 3 Supercam and 2 Zala drones in Sumy. Video shows effective interception of ZALA and Supercam type drones by 45th Separate Artillery Brigade. UAV threat in Mykolaiv Oblast. Kyiv air defense successful against ballistic threat. UA Air Force warns of danger from guided aerial bombs in Zaporizhzhia. Николаевский Ванёк reports initial 26 "mopeds" flying from Tatarbunary towards Izmail district, later reduced to 18. LATEST UPDATE: "All clear" for drone threats in Mykolaiv and Odesa regions. Shahed drone strikes near Orlivka, Odessa Oblast resulted in large fires, indicating some RF UAVs are penetrating defenses. Ballistic missile threat alert in Zaporizhzhia and other regions demonstrates continued active UA air defense posture, now lifted. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issued an alert. Ivan Fedorov (OBA Head) confirmed explosions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports guided aerial bomb launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia. Confirmed RF aviation strike on Zaporizhzhia district, buildings damaged, 3 WIA. RF MoD claims 51 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions (including Crimea) overnight. ASTRA confirms 51 UAVs downed. Bryansk Governor reports 16 enemy UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast overnight. "Dnevnik Desantnika" (RF) claims RF Geran-2 UAVs struck a gas distribution station near Odessa overnight, implying successful penetration. "Dnevnik Desantnika" (RF) claims 51 UAVs destroyed by PVO. NEW: Операция Z reports 51 Ukrainian drones downed over 5 RF regions (reiterating RF MoD claim). NEW: ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» video confirms successful engagement of RF Zala and Supercam drones. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows UA drone dropping grenade on RF "crane" (drone), indicating successful counter-drone operations. Air Force of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv, with assets deployed to shoot them down. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for all facts; HIGH for drone report and air defense engagement; HIGH for Shahed strike; HIGH for ballistic missile threat and its subsequent clearance; HIGH - for OBA alert and explosion confirmation; HIGH - for new FAB report; HIGH - for update; MEDIUM - for RF claimed numbers shot down, likely exaggerated on UA losses; HIGH - for Bryansk Governor report on RF PVO; MEDIUM - for new RF strike claim; HIGH - for new RF military blogger report; HIGH - for new ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» video; HIGH - for new БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video; HIGH - for new Air Force report).
- Offensive Operations (Deep Strike): Confirmed drone strike by UA on Trostyanska railway station in Rostov region, causing fire. This demonstrates UA's continued capability for deep strikes into RF territory. RBC-Ukraine reports multiple explosions in Bryansk (RF) this morning, with Russians complaining of unknown drone attack. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports 'good UAVs again attacked the swamp empire' with video of explosions/fires, confirming UA deep strikes. UA Operativny ZSU provides archival footage of SSO operations in Kursk region, including sabotage and engagements. UA General Staff commemorates August 6, 2024, as the start of the Kursk offensive operation, the first time full-scale war entered RF territory. UA General Staff reports 1010 RF personnel losses in last 24 hours, indicating continued high attrition of RF forces. UA "Shadow" unit video shows drone strike on battlefield, confirming continued active drone combat operations. NEW: UA Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi states over 77,000 RF servicemen (including 4,000 DPRK citizens) killed and wounded, and 7236 units of RF equipment destroyed/damaged in the Kursk grouping of forces' area of responsibility over the past year. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms strike on Tatsinskaya railway junction in Rostov Oblast, showing large explosion and fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Defensive Posture: Intense defensive combat on key axes (Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka-Pokrovsk). CRITICAL: RF entry into Rodynske requires immediate decisive shift. UA forces continue to hold defense around Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration. Information about encirclement is false. UA engaging RF at mine east of Rodynske. UA video content implies high attrition for RF mobilized forces. Kryvyi Rih situation reported as controlled. UA General Staff provides daily map updates, indicating active defense across multiple sectors including South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, and Kramatorsk (Chasiv Yar). NEW: UA General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Pokrovsk, Popiv Yar, Volodymyrivka, Boykivka, Suvorove, Kotlyne, Novoekonomichne, Muravka, Myrolubivka, Mykolayivka, Rodynske, Sukhetske, Dachne, Promin, Molodetske, Lysivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Novoukrayinka, Oleksiyivka and towards Novopavlivka. NEW: UA General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Piddubne, Voskresenka, Shevchenko, Zelenyy Hay, Zelene Pole, Novodarivka and towards Ivanivka, Novoivanivka on Novopavlivka direction. NEW: UA General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Stepove and Plavni on Orikhiv direction. NEW: UA General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Temyrivka on Huliaipole direction. NEW: UA General Staff reports repelling 1 Russian army assault on Kherson direction. NEW: UA General Staff reports repelling 13 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- International Military Aid Integration: Confirmed successful delivery and upcoming arrival of NATO-funded US equipment. NATO commencing coordination of large-scale arms supplies. Zelenskyy confirms new aid from Croatia. Video shows a Ukrainian military unit firing a rocket system mounted on a Humvee. Pentagon confirms approval of new military aid package to Ukraine. Reuters reports US approved sale of M777 howitzer repair services for Ukraine for $203.5M. "Shadow" unit acknowledges receipt of 2 new Mavic drones from Canadian diaspora, indicating continued international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Medical Support: Video report from a stabilization point of the 5th Separate Assault Brigade near Kramatorsk shows medical personnel treating wounded soldiers. NEW: RBC-Ukraine and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS photo messages confirm 2 KIA and 12 WIA in Zaporizhzhia district from a recent attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Resource Requirements: UA drone unit from 9th Brigade requests support for unit needs. UA 7th Division paratroopers (Zaporizhzhia direction) explicitly request drones and Starlink. Urgent call for drone deployment on Pokrovsk direction tonight. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows UA 7th Airborne Division paratroopers from Zaporizhzhia direction explicitly requesting donations for drones and Starlink. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Strategic Communications: Deputy Head of OP Iryna Vereshchuk states "this war is for a long time." NEW: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України shares photo with caption "Preparing two surprises for Russians, they will die in batches", indicating morale and strategic intent. NEW: Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація and Оперативний ЗСУ share minute of silence videos, indicating national mourning and resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capabilities:
- Aerial Bombardment: Sustained massed FAB/KAB and UAV strikes, including precision strikes (Lozova, Kupyansk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia). Increased volume of FAB-500 glide bombs. Lancet-3 confirmed destroying UA 2S1 Gvozdika. RF considering "limited air truce." RF drone and artillery operators claim to have destroyed three UA UAV control points near Siversk. RF attacked Kharkiv city with a drone. Reports 15 "mopeds" (UAVs) in the sea off Mykolaiv. UAV threat in Mykolaiv Oblast. RF drone footage claims destruction of UA mortar and ammunition pickup truck near Konstantinovka. Николаевский Ванёк reports initial 26 "mopeds" flying from Tatarbunary towards Izmail district, reduced to 18. LATEST UPDATE: "All clear" for drone threats in Mykolaiv and Odesa regions. Confirmed Shahed drone strikes near Orlivka, Odessa Oblast. Ballistic missile threat alert in Zaporizhzhia and other regions, now cleared. UA Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bomb launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF PVO forces repelled an attack in one city and three districts of Rostov Oblast. Nearly 200 people without power in Zolotyarevka Khutor due to UAV attack. Air Force of Ukraine reports guided aerial bomb launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia. Confirmed RF aviation strike on Zaporizhzhia district, 3 WIA, buildings damaged. "Dnevnik Desantnika" (RF) claims RF Geran-2 UAVs struck a gas distribution station near Odessa overnight. Bryansk Governor reports 16 enemy UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast overnight. RF MoD claims 51 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions (including Crimea) overnight. ASTRA confirms 51 UAVs downed. "Dnevnik Desantnika" (RF) claims 51 UAVs destroyed by PVO. UA General Staff reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Khliborob of Sumy region, Olhivka, Kozatske, Daryivka of Kherson region. NEW: Воин DV video shows RF 35th Army 'Vostok' Group UAV operators striking UA personnel and vehicles in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. NEW: Операция Z reports 51 Ukrainian drones downed over 5 RF regions (reiterating RF MoD claim). NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms strike on Tatsinskaya railway junction in Rostov Oblast, showing large explosion and fire. Air Force of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv, which may be target designators. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for confirmed strikes; MEDIUM - for RF claims of specific targets destroyed; HIGH for drone report and RF video content; HIGH for Shahed strike; HIGH for ballistic missile threat and its subsequent clearance; HIGH for FAB strikes on Sumy; HIGH - for Zaporizhzhia explosion; HIGH - for RF PVO report; HIGH - for FAB on Zaporizhzhia; HIGH - for Bryansk drone attack; HIGH - for Rostov Governor report; HIGH - for update; HIGH - for new RF strike claim; HIGH - for Bryansk Governor report; MEDIUM - for new RF MoD/ASTRA/Dnevnik Desantnika claims, likely exaggerated on UA losses; HIGH - for new UA General Staff report; HIGH - for new RF video; HIGH - for new RF military blogger report; HIGH - for new ЦАПЛІЄНКО video; HIGH - for new Air Force report).
- Ground Maneuver: Capable of tactical breakthroughs (Rodynske confirmed) and sustained infantry assaults (Chasiv Yar, VDV). New T-90M tank deployment. Shift to small-unit infiltration tactics in South. RF 'AIRNOMADS' footage indicates continued ground movement on Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) axis. RF capability for significant force generation, aiming to form 10 new divisions by year-end. RF 103rd regiment claims advance towards Konstantinovka. Video of "Molniya-2" UAV operators striking enemy positions confirms continued drone-enabled precision strike capability. TASS reports FPV drones "Boomerang" are used in all directions. Colonelcassad video claims FPV drones "VT-40" and "KVN" destroyed enemy transport and personnel in Kharkiv direction. Colonelcassad video (02 AUG) claims FPV drone KVN struck and destroyed a masked UA T-64BV tank in Pokrovsk. Spokesperson for Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine, Vladyslav Voloshyn (RBC-Ukraine), reports RF conducting small assaults and regrouping in Zaporizhzhia direction. TASS (Andrey Marochko) states the loss of Yanvarske forces UA to transfer reserves to the western borders of the DPR to contain the RF army. Colonelcassad reports RF ATGM/recoilless rifle teams destroying UA armored vehicles and firing positions using "roaming gun" tactics. RF SpN "Anvar" claims to be burning UA equipment and positions near the Sumy border in support of RF advance. "Dnevnik Desantnika" (RF) video shows truck-mounted rocket launcher firing multiple rockets and aerial view of shelling in wooded area, indicative of active RF combat operations. Colonelcassad releases new video claiming special forces engaging UA positions, equipment and drones. TASS (Russian power structures) claim UA forces are retreating from positions in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Rybar video map analysis confirms RF advances in Volchansk, Kharkiv region. WarGonzo provides a map of the Zaporizhzhian front, which likely details RF advances. NEW: Воин DV video shows RF 35th Army 'Vostok' Group UAV operators striking UA personnel and vehicles in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. NEW: TASS (Marochko) reports RF forces increased pressure on UA positions in southern Kremensky forests near Hryhorivka and Serebryanka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for observed actions; MEDIUM - for RF claims of specific outcomes; HIGH for RF supply delivery; MEDIUM for new FPV drone claim; HIGH for Colonelcassad video; HIGH for Voloshyn statement; HIGH for Marochko's statement; HIGH - for Colonelcassad report; MEDIUM - for new RF SpN claim; HIGH - for new RF combat video; HIGH - for new Colonelcassad video; MEDIUM - for TASS retreat claim; HIGH - for Rybar map; HIGH - for WarGonzo map; HIGH - for new RF video; HIGH - for new TASS report).
Intentions:
- Seize Key Terrain: Primary intent to capture Chasiv Yar and continue westward advance from Avdiivka to Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad. Encirclement of Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad is stated objective, confirmed entry into Rodynske makes this highly credible. Intensified push on Kupyansk aims to secure additional territory. New advance towards Konstantinovka. TASS (Andrey Marochko) statement on Yanvarske's loss implies aggressive RF follow-up in DPR. Military map from "@RYBAR" shows RF aiming to expand territorial control, reinforcing this intent. Rybar video map analysis confirms RF advances in Volchansk, Kharkiv region. WarGonzo provides a map of the Zaporizhzhian front, which likely details RF advances, indicating intent for territorial gains. NEW: UA General Staff reports clashes across multiple axes (Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Kherson, Kursk/North Slobozhansky), indicating RF intent to maintain pressure and advance on all major fronts. NEW: TASS (Marochko) reports RF forces increased pressure on UA positions in southern Kremensky forests near Hryhorivka and Serebryanka, indicating intent to push further in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Degrade UA Capabilities: Continue deep strikes on logistics, C2, and energy infrastructure, focusing on UA airfields and drone control points. New claims of destroying UA UAV CPs near Siversk. Targeting of UA radar systems with Lancet/Zoopark combination confirms intent to degrade UA air defense/reconnaissance. RF claims of destroying UA MLRS (RAK-SA-12) indicate intent to neutralize UA long-range fire assets. Repeated drone strikes on Trostyanska railway station (Rostov Oblast) directly target RF railway logistics infrastructure and indicate RF intent to degrade UA logistics. Confirmed Shahed strikes in Odessa Oblast indicate continued intent to strike Ukrainian rear areas. Ballistic missile threats indicate continued intent to strike deep into UA territory, now cleared. Renewed FAB strikes on Sumy Oblast confirm continued intent. Yan Gagin's claim about UA rear logistics in "liberated Chasiv Yar" indicates intent to portray Chasiv Yar as lost. Colonelcassad's video claim of FPV drone destruction of UA transport and ammunition in Kharkiv indicates intent to disrupt UA logistics. Colonelcassad video (02 AUG) claiming FPV drone KVN strike on UA T-64BV tank in Pokrovsk indicates continued intent to degrade UA armor. Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and new FAB strikes reported there, confirming continued intent to degrade UA infrastructure. Reports of drone attacks in Bryansk (RF) and Rostov Oblast indicate UA intent to degrade RF rear capabilities, which RF intends to counter. Confirmed RF aviation strike on Zaporizhzhia district confirms continued intent to degrade UA infrastructure. "Dnevnik Desantnika" (RF) claiming RF Geran-2 UAVs struck a gas distribution station near Odessa overnight confirms continued intent to degrade UA energy infrastructure. RF MoD claims 51 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions (including Crimea) overnight, suggesting RF intent to portray high defensive effectiveness against UA deep strikes. Colonelcassad releases new video claiming special forces engaging UA positions, equipment and drones, reinforcing intent to degrade UA. TASS (Russian power structures) claim UA forces are retreating from positions in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, serving intent to show UA weakening. NEW: Воин DV video showing RF UAV strikes on UA personnel and vehicles in Zaporizhzhia indicates continued intent to attrit UA forces. NEW: UA Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's report of massive RF losses in Kursk indicates RF intent to continue costly offensives on the border. Air Force of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv, indicating RF intent to identify targets for future strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Signal Escalation/De-escalation: Public announcement of lifting short/medium-range missile moratorium signals escalation. RF consideration of "limited air truce" indicates potential intent to signal de-escalation for political gain while maintaining ground offensive. Belarus seeking to change war law aligns with RF intent to expand potential for conflict. Putin extends volunteer support to all border regions, indicates intent to formalize/expand irregulars. RF internal debate suggests "air truce" viewed as highly beneficial to Ukraine. Donald Trump's public statements about removing the US from the conflict and an upcoming meeting with Russia will be interpreted by RF as a positive signal for their diplomatic objectives, reinforcing their "air truce" concept and enabling RF to leverage political divisions. Trump's discussion of 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian energy resources is a significant political signal. Witkoff's arrival in Moscow and meeting with Dmitriev is a diplomatic signal. NEW: Trump's upcoming statement (reported by RBC-Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, TASS) is a key event for RF to monitor for potential shifts in US foreign policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- Information Warfare: Intention to suppress internal dissent and control narratives. Z-blogger's claim of being hunted suggests internal pressure. Alexander Khinshtein's public statement about punishing "invaders" in Kursk indicates RF intent to reinforce its defensive narrative. TASS video of a Ukrainian POW, claiming desire to remain in RF prison, indicates intention to portray UA forces as demoralized. RF proxy "Russian Kherson" claim of UA evacuating civilians aims to sow panic. Milonov's call to stop alcohol delivery reflects RF internal social concerns. The Colonelcassad patch imagery (Cerberus/СЕВЕР) with violent themes indicates an intent to foster a brutal and aggressive identity within some RF military elements. TASS video of another Ukrainian POW claiming foreign mercenary involvement is a direct propaganda effort to delegitimize UA forces. TASS report on Crocus attack trial reflects RF C2's continued control over domestic narratives. TASS photo message claiming "Sputnik V" superiority reinforces RF's self-perception. TASS report about scammers using QR codes indicates intent to warn population about cyber threats. TASS reporting on IQOS packaging and traffic fines are part of RF's general domestic social messaging. TASS report on auctioned yacht of Kerimov is likely intended to frame sanctions as illegitimate seizure. Peskov's statement (TASS) on lack of RF-US presidential meetings is diplomatic posturing to downplay significance of strained relations. TASS (Khinshtein) statement on Ukrainian Armed Forces acting as "occupiers" in Kursk is intended to portray Ukraine as aggressor. TASS video of Ukrainian POW escaping to Russia for asylum is a propaganda effort to portray UA forces as demoralized and RF as a safe haven. TASS reports on residents of Kherson/Zaporizhzhia reporting UA coordinates to RF is likely propaganda to show local support. TASS claim of mercenaries from 12 countries opposing RF in Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk for "buffer zone" creation is direct propaganda to justify aggression. TASS report of women soldiers from UA leave recalled to Kharkiv Oblast for deployment is likely propaganda to demoralize UA by portraying manpower shortages. RF SpN "Anvar" claims of burning UA equipment reinforce RF offensive narratives. TASS messaging about UN SG Guterres's speech on Hiroshima, omitting US responsibility while focusing on nuclear threats, indicates RF intent to leverage global events to shape narratives on nuclear weapons and blame without direct attribution. Public Chamber proposal for "carpet plan" flight delay compensation indicates RF intent to manage internal civilian discontent and present government as responsive. TASS reports Vodolatsky's opinion on Gutsul's verdict in Moldova, indicating RF intent to destabilize Moldova and frame its government as oppressive. Police of Khabarovsk Krai posts indicate RF intent to show domestic order/security. Kotsnews photo of "Year since the invasion" is propaganda. TASS reports decreased alcohol consumption in Moscow, indicating RF intent to portray social improvements. NEW: TASS reports Vodolatsky claims Kyiv declared war on children by Myrotvorets website inclusion, a new propaganda push to demonize Ukraine. NEW: Дневник Десантника (RF) promoting "Тихий" and "Сибиль" as heroes in Kursk further reinforces RF narrative of heroic defense against UA aggression. NEW: Воин DV video showing RF UAV strikes on UA personnel and vehicles in Zaporizhzhia will be used as propaganda for RF combat effectiveness. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts on custom leather goods promote civilian products with a nationalistic/masculine tone ("Made with soul for real Russian men"), contributing to a broader cultural narrative supporting military service. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for stated intent; MEDIUM - for unverified claims; HIGH for new propaganda content; MEDIUM - for new TASS reports, likely propaganda; HIGH - for new TASS messaging on Hiroshima; HIGH - for Public Chamber report; HIGH - for new TASS on Moldova; LOW - for police/alcohol reports; HIGH - for new TASS propaganda; HIGH - for new RF propaganda; MEDIUM - for new АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts).
Courses of Action (COA):
- MLCOA 1 (Exploitation of Rodynske and Encirclement of Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad): RF will reinforce and exploit confirmed entry into Rodynske, pushing to cut off logistics to Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad, initiating direct attacks. TASS (Andrey Marochko) statement on Yanvarske's loss implies aggressive RF follow-up in DPR. UA General Staff report of clashes around Pokrovsk and Rodynske confirms this MLCOA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- MLCOA 2 (Sustained High-Intensity Pressure on Chasiv Yar with Armored Support): RF continues massed gliding bomb and VDV-led assaults on Chasiv Yar, bolstered by T-90M. RF claim regarding UA logistics remaining in "liberated Chasiv Yar" indicates RF intent to consolidate control and disrupt UA sustainment in this sector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- MLCOA 3 (Continued High-Volume Deep Strikes on UA Infrastructure with Potential for Increased Missile Use and Focused Airfield Targeting): RF maintains high tempo of UAV/missile strikes. New strikes on Kharkiv, Sumy, and Donetsk confirm this MLCOA. Confirmed Shahed drone strikes in Odessa Oblast. New ballistic missile threats in Zaporizhzhia and other regions, now cleared. Renewed FAB strikes on Sumy Oblast. Expect continued missile/drone/FAB/aviation strikes on Zaporizhzhia Oblast (confirmed new FAB launches and aviation strike). Expect continued UA drone strikes into RF border regions, specifically targeting logistics (railways) and potentially military facilities (Bryansk), which RF PVO will attempt to repel. "Dnevnik Desantnika" (RF) claims RF Geran-2 UAVs struck a gas distribution station near Odessa overnight, supporting this MLCOA. UA General Staff reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Khliborob of Sumy region, Olhivka, Kozatske, Daryivka of Kherson region. NEW: Воин DV video shows RF UAV strikes on UA personnel and vehicles in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating continuation of this MLCOA. NEW: Kharkiv Oblast Administration Head Oleh Syniehubov reports Kharkiv city and 5 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were struck by RF yesterday, confirming continued deep strikes. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms strike on Tatsinskaya railway junction in Rostov Oblast, supporting continued deep strikes on RF logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- MLCOA 4 (Intensified Pressure on Kupyansk with Urban Combat): RF intensifies offensive in Kupyansk, aiming for urban combat. Colonelcassad video claims FPV drone destruction of UA transport and ammunition in Kharkiv direction. Rybar video map analysis confirms RF advances in Volchansk, Kharkiv region, indicating intent to push in Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- MLCOA 5 (Localized Probing Attacks and Border Pressure with Adapted Tactics): RF continues localized attacks across various sectors, including cross-border shelling/UAV recce in Sumy/Chernihiv, and small-unit infiltration in South. New claims of advances towards Konstantinovka and strikes on Kherson's left bank. Spokesperson for Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine, Vladyslav Voloshyn (RBC-Ukraine), reports RF conducting small assaults and regrouping in Zaporizhzhia direction, supporting this MLCOA. Colonelcassad reports on "roaming gun" ATGM tactics suggest continued adaptation of localized, mobile precision strike units. RF SpN "Anvar" claims to be burning UA equipment and positions near the Sumy border in support of RF advance. "Dnevnik Десантника" (RF) video showing active combat operations with artillery and armored vehicles is consistent with this MLCOA. Colonelcassad releases new video claiming special forces engaging UA positions, equipment and drones, consistent with localized probing. WarGonzo provides a map of the Zaporizhzhian front, which likely details RF advances. NEW: UA General Staff reports clashes near Piddubne, Voskresenka, Shevchenko, Zelenyy Hay, Zelene Pole, Novodarivka and towards Ivanivka, Novoivanivka on Novopavlivka direction. NEW: UA General Staff reports clashes near Stepove and Plavni on Orikhiv direction. NEW: UA General Staff reports clashes near Temyrivka on Huliaipole direction. NEW: UA General Staff reports repelling 1 Russian army assault on Kherson direction. NEW: UA General Staff reports repelling 13 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. These reports confirm RF maintaining pressure across multiple localized axes. NEW: TASS (Marochko) reports RF forces increased pressure on UA positions in southern Kremensky forests near Hryhorivka and Serebryanka, supporting this MLCOA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- MLCOA 6 (Information Dominance and Justification): RF will continue to use its media apparatus to publicize successes, denigrate UA, justify actions, and suppress internal dissent. RF will likely exploit captured soldier's video. RF propaganda will heavily promote any "air truce." RF channels will heavily amplify Trump's statements. RF will continue to release propaganda featuring Ukrainian POWs claiming foreign mercenary involvement. RF will continue to use the Crocus attack trial to reinforce narratives of internal security threats. RF will continue to use reports on civilian issues (e.g., flight delays) to demonstrate concern for internal security and public welfare. RF will continue to use RF internal social issues (e.g., IQOS, traffic fines) in their state media to portray normalcy and concern for the population, diverting from war-related issues. RF will continue to posture diplomatically via state media (Peskov statement) to influence international perception. RF will continue to use official statements from figures like Khinshtein to frame Ukraine as an aggressor and justify RF actions. RF will heavily promote the Ukrainian POW claiming asylum to demoralize UA forces. RF will use reports of residents in occupied territories providing UA coordinates as propaganda to demonstrate local support. RF will continue to propagate claims of foreign mercenaries opposing their advances to justify aggression. RF will use claims of UA recalling women soldiers from leave to portray UA manpower shortages and demoralize forces. RF will use UN SG Guterres's comments on Hiroshima to push narrative regarding nuclear weapons and blame without direct attribution. RF will continue to use claimed high UAV interception rates over its territory (e.g., 51 UAVs) to demonstrate defensive strength. RF will continue to destabilize Moldova and frame its government as oppressive. RF will leverage Trump's discussion of 100% tariffs to sow discord. RF will continue to promote domestic order and social improvements. NEW: RF will push the narrative that Kyiv is declaring war on children (Myrotvorets) to demonize Ukraine. NEW: RF will continue to promote figures like "Тихий" and "Сибиль" as heroes of the Kursk operation to rally support. NEW: RF will use Воин DV's video to promote combat effectiveness. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА will continue to post promotional content with nationalistic undertones to bolster morale and support for military-aligned lifestyles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- MLCOA 7 (Increased Strategic Alignment with Belarus): RF will continue to pressure Belarus to align its domestic legislation and military posture more closely with RF objectives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- MLCOA 8 (Continued Force Generation for Long-Term Conflict): RF will proceed with stated plans to form 10 new divisions by year-end. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- MLCOA 9 (Internal Security Crackdown): RF will continue to use legal instruments and security services to suppress perceived internal dissent. The ASTRA report of a returned servicemember causing a grenade explosion reinforces the likelihood of internal security challenges and subsequent crackdowns or propaganda efforts to manage them. NEW: RF's domestic police focus (Khabarovsk video) indicates continued efforts to manage internal order. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- MLCOA 10 (Exploitation of Western Political Divisions): RF will actively seek to exploit and amplify perceived divisions within Western political landscapes. TASS report on China's continued oil purchases is aimed at showing resilience to Western pressure. NEW: RF will closely monitor Trump's upcoming statement for opportunities to exploit or amplify Western divisions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- MLCOA 11 (Social Engineering and Demographics): RF will likely implement social support programs (e.g., mortgage initiatives) aimed at addressing demographic issues and potentially incentivizing loyalty. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- MLCOA 12 (Focus on AI/Technological Advancement): RF will continue to invest in and seek to integrate AI and other advanced technologies, likely for military and industrial applications, as indicated by increased demand for AI directors. (CONFIDENCE: LOW).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

Renewed Mechanized Breakthrough Emphasis: Successful exploitation of seams in UA defenses in Ocheretyne sector with mechanized forces. Confirmed entry into Rodynske elevates this significantly. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Shift to Small-Unit Infiltration: On Southern Front, shift from large mechanized assaults to small, dismounted infantry group attacks. Spokesperson for Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine, Vladyslav Voloshyn (RBC-Ukraine), reports RF conducting small assaults and regrouping in Zaporizhzhia direction, reinforcing this adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Deployment of Modern Armor: New deployment of T-90M tanks in Chasiv Yar sector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Systematic Lancet Employment: More systematic and widespread use against UA artillery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Strategic Missile Signal / Potential De-escalation Signal: Public announcement of lifting short/medium-range missile moratorium. RF consideration of "limited air truce." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for reports/signals; MEDIUM - for implementation).
Urban Combat in Kupyansk: Confirmed air bomb attack indicates shift towards direct assault on urban centers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Internal Russian Federation Incident: Explosion at RF military unit in Rostov Oblast (Bataysk area). Confirmed drone strikes on Trostyanska railway station in Rostov Oblast demonstrate UA's adaptation to conduct deeper strikes into RF territory. RF PVO forces repelled an an attack in one city and three districts of Rostov Oblast, confirming continued UA adaptation for deep strikes. Confirmed drone attacks in Bryansk (RF) this morning further confirm UA adaptation for deep strikes. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms strike on Tatsinskaya railway junction in Rostov Oblast, demonstrating continued UA adaptation for deep strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
RF's stated intent to form 10 new divisions by year-end indicates strategic adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Belarus considering martial law is a significant change in stance/preparation related to the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Deployment of Advanced Air Defense: Confirmed imagery of Buk-M2 components (9S36 RPN and 9A316 PZU) actively deployed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Public Compensation for "Carpet Plan" Delays: RF proposal to compensate passengers for flight delays. Moscow Public Chamber proposing compensation for flight delays due to "carpet plan" suggests widespread impact of drone activity on civilian air travel and RF adaptation to manage public discontent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Use of Ukrainian POW in Propaganda: RF using captured Ukrainian soldier in video to support their narrative. TASS video of another Ukrainian POW claiming foreign mercenary involvement is a further adaptation. TASS video of Ukrainian POW escaping to Russia for asylum is a further propaganda adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Widespread FPV Drone Deployment: TASS reports that FPV drones "Boomerang" have started being used in all directions. Colonelcassad's video claim of FPV drone destruction of UA transport and ammunition in Kharkiv direction indicates RF's adaptive use of FPV drones for specific logistical interdiction tasks. Colonelcassad video (02 AUG) claims FPV drone KVN strike and destroyed a masked UA T-64BV tank in Pokrovsk, indicating adaptive use of FPV for armor targeting. Colonelcassad releases new video claiming special forces engaging UA positions, equipment and drones, implying adapting to counter-UA drone and C2 elements. NEW: Воин DV video shows RF UAV operators striking UA personnel and vehicles in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, further demonstrating adaptive use of FPV/UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Targeting of UA Rear Logistics in Chasiv Yar: Yan Gagin's claim about UA rear logistics remaining in "liberated Chasiv Yar" suggests RF tactical adaptation to isolate and disrupt UA sustainment in contested urban environments. (CONFIDENCE: LOW, due to unverified nature of claim, but indicates RF intent/aspiration).
TASS (Andrey Marochko) statement on Yanvarske's loss implies RF adaptive strategy to force UA redeployments and stretch their defensive lines. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Colonelcassad reports on "roaming gun" ATGM tactics indicates an adaptive use of mobile, concealed anti-armor teams. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
TASS report of residents in occupied Kherson/Zaporizhzhia reporting UA coordinates to RF suggests an adaptive HUMINT strategy by RF, likely facilitated by control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
RF SpN "Anvar" claiming to be burning UA equipment near Sumy border indicates adapted use of SpN elements for direct support of localized border offensives. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
RF adapting to widespread drone activity with coordinated PVO responses across multiple regions (51 UAVs claimed shot down). (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - for claimed numbers, HIGH - for coordination).
TASS (Russian power structures) claim UA forces are retreating from positions in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, if true, represents significant RF adaptive pressure. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
NEW: RF focus on AI development (increased demand for AI directors) suggests long-term adaptation to integrate advanced technologies into military/industrial complex. (CONFIDENCE: LOW).
NEW: RF forces increased pressure on UA positions in southern Kremensky forests near Hryhorivka and Serebryanka (TASS Marochko), indicating a tactical adaptation for renewed pressure in this sector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF Logistics: Generally sufficient. Localized reliance on non-governmental funding for some units. Sanctions impacting strategic industries. Confirmation of private donations (120,000 rubles) to 1307th Motorized Rifle Regiment indicates continued reliance on non-state funding. Public collection for "frontline vehicles" confirms continued reliance on volunteer support. Bus crash on Luhansk-Moscow route indicates localized transport issues. RF video confirms tactical medicine and other supplies being delivered to assault units on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. Confirmed drone strikes on Trostyanska railway station in Rostov Oblast directly target RF railway logistics infrastructure. TASS reports that passengers are entitled to free water, food, and hotel accommodation for long flight delays. RF proxy Yan Gagin's claim about UA rear logistics remaining in "liberated Chasiv Yar" if true, indicates successful RF disruption of UA supply lines. Nearly 200 people without power in Zolotyarevka Khutor, Rostov Oblast, due to UAV attack indicates localized disruption of power infrastructure possibly supporting logistics. TASS reports bypass road construction began in Amur region after Lena highway collapse; to be completed by August 9, demonstrating RF's capacity for rapid infrastructure repair for internal issues. TASS reports China unlikely to stop oil purchases from Russia despite Trump's threats, indicating continued strategic resource access for RF. TASS reports women soldiers from UA leave recalled to Kharkiv Oblast for deployment, implying RF intelligence on UA personnel. While propaganda, indicates RF efforts to monitor UA personnel movements. Moscow Public Chamber proposing compensation for flight delays due to "carpet plan" suggests widespread impact of drone activity on civilian air travel, potentially causing logistical disruptions. TASS showing civilian convoy with police escort, indicating normal internal logistics. NEW: Новости Москвы reports a threefold increase in demand for AI directors in Russia, indicating a focus on technological development, potentially for military applications. NEW: Two Mayora video confirms donations of radio stations to RF SpN Española, showing continued reliance on private/volunteer funding for communication equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for overall capability and trends; MEDIUM - for localized strain; HIGH for observed supply delivery and new strike on logistics; HIGH for managing public inconvenience; LOW - for Gagin's claim as it is unverified and likely propaganda; HIGH - for Rostov power outage; HIGH - for bypass road construction; HIGH - for China oil; MEDIUM - for new TASS report; HIGH - for Moscow Public Chamber report; HIGH - for TASS civilian convoy; LOW - for new AI report; HIGH - for new Two Mayora video).
UA Logistics: Under constant threat from RF deep strikes (Lozova, Kupyansk air bomb attack, new Kharkiv and Sumy attacks, new Shahed strikes in Odessa, new ballistic missile threats in Zaporizhzhia, now cleared, new FAB launches and aviation strike on Zaporizhzhia, new strike on Odessa gas distribution station). External military aid (PURL, NATO coordination, Croatia aid, US "excess" weapons, new US $203.5M package, M777 repair services, new Mavic drones from Canada) is significant and crucial. Urgent requests for drones and Starlink from UA units indicate immediate logistical/equipment needs. A Ukrainian military blogger notes a "logjam" in retail distribution/production of retrievable drones. NEW: Воин DV video shows RF UAV strikes on UA personnel and vehicles in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating continued RF targeting of UA logistics/personnel. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows UA 7th Airborne Division paratroopers from Zaporizhzhia direction explicitly requesting donations for drones and Starlink, confirming continued material needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2: Highly effective in coordinating complex multi-domain operations. Info ops well-coordinated. Strategic C2 apparent in missile policy changes and diplomatic engagements (Witkoff visit, Trump meeting). Rostov Oblast incident, if friendly fire, points to localized C2 failure or deficiency. RF C2 considering significant political gestures impacting military operations. Putin's extension of volunteer support demonstrates strategic C2. Report of FSO meeting for "red buttons and drones" indicates high-level strategic C2 preparedness. Internal RF military blogger debate on "air truce" suggests C2 facing internal pressures. RF claim of destroying 3 UA UAV CPs near Siversk indicates continued targeting of UA C2. RF video highlighting Lancet/Zoopark cooperation suggests coordinated C2 for combined arms targeting. Trump's public statements about a meeting with Russia indicate direct, high-level diplomatic engagement. TASS report on lack of direct US-RF presidential meetings highlights RF's awareness of diplomatic C2. The coordinated TASS propaganda effort regarding the Kursk memorial event further demonstrates effective C2. The Tula Oblast detonation investigation suggests potential internal security C2 challenges. TASS report on Crocus attack trial reflects RF C2's continued control over domestic narratives. RF proxy Yan Gagin's claim (TASS) about UA logistics remaining in "liberated Chasiv Yar" demonstrates RF C2's coordinated effort to control narrative. Peskov's statement (TASS) on lack of RF-US leadership meeting further demonstrates RF C2's controlled narrative for diplomatic relations. TASS (Khinshtein) statement on Ukrainian Armed Forces acting as "occupiers" in Kursk confirms coordinated narrative control. TASS report of US special envoy's plane entering Russian airspace confirms high-level diplomatic C2, likely coordinated with military objectives. Colonelcassad's report on RF MoD's "roaming gun" tactics demonstrates effective C2 for tactical innovation. The "@RYBAR" map (Dva Mayora) suggests a centralized C2 for overall strategic picture management within RF military media. TASS claim of mercenaries from 12 countries opposing RF for "buffer zone" creation implies RF C2 is generating narratives to justify military action. RF MoD claim of 51 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions (including Crimea) overnight indicates a coordinated PVO response and C2 effectiveness in air defense. Bryansk Governor's report of 16 UAVs destroyed confirms regional C2 for air defense. TASS messaging about UN SG Guterres's speech on Hiroshima, omitting US responsibility while focusing on nuclear threats, indicates RF C2's strategic framing of global events. Public Chamber proposal for "carpet plan" flight delay compensation indicates C2's attempts to manage internal civilian discontent. TASS reports Vodolatsky's opinion on Gutsul's verdict in Moldova, indicating RF C2's intent to destabilize Moldova and frame its government as oppressive. Witkoff's arrival in Moscow and meeting with Dmitriev is a high-level diplomatic C2 event. Rybar video map analysis in Volchansk demonstrates centralized C2 for strategic mapping and information dissemination. NEW: ASTRA video of Witkoff and Dmitriev walking confirms high-level diplomatic C2. NEW: Полиция Хабаровского края video shows domestic C2 focus on internal cyber security. NEW: Новости Москвы reporting increased demand for AI directors indicates strategic C2 focus on technological advancement. NEW: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны shares video of Witkoff's arrival, convoy, and walking, confirming high-level diplomatic C2 and coordination of public messaging. NEW: TASS (Marochko) reports RF forces increased pressure on UA positions in southern Kremensky forests near Hryhorivka and Serebryanka, indicating C2 effectiveness in directing local advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for strategic coordination; MEDIUM - for localized failures/internal reports; HIGH for new information; LOW - for Gagin's claim as it is unverified; HIGH - for TASS report on US envoy; HIGH - for Colonelcassad report; HIGH - for map analysis; MEDIUM - for new TASS claim; HIGH - for new RF MoD/Bryansk Governor reports on PVO; HIGH - for TASS messaging on Hiroshima; HIGH - for Public Chamber report; HIGH - for new TASS on Moldova; HIGH - for Witkoff meeting; HIGH - for Rybar map; HIGH - for new ASTRA video; LOW - for new police video; LOW - for new AI report; HIGH - for new Операция Z videos; HIGH - for new TASS report).
UA C2: Effectively coordinates air defense, maintains active defense, implements adaptive planning. Proactive in counter-drone innovation. High-level leadership actively engaged. Effective counter-intelligence. New "Rzerv+" deferment indicates adaptive C2 for mobilization. Effective counter-battery fire. Zelenskyy's meeting/call with NATO SG Mark Rutte highlights continued high-level strategic C2. Syrskyi's direct public statement on UA successes indicates effective communication. Zelenskyy's conversation with Trump about war termination highlights top-level C2 engaging with key international partners. Zelenskyy's comment on RF violating "air truce" ideas demonstrates UA's C2 rejecting diplomatic overtures. General Staff statement refuting Pokrovsk encirclement indicates proactive C2 in information environment. The prompt air warnings by UA Air Force indicate continuous monitoring and rapid dissemination of threat information. The updated drone numbers from Николаевский Ванёк indicate real-time monitoring and reporting. LATEST UPDATE: "All clear" for drone threats in Mykolaiv and Odesa confirms effective C2. Ballistic missile threat alert in Zaporizhzhia and other regions demonstrates continued effective C2, now lifted. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issued an alert and Ivan Fedorov (OBA Head) confirmed explosions, demonstrating rapid and effective local C2 for warning and information dissemination. Air Force of Ukraine reporting new FAB launches on Zaporizhzhia indicates continued active monitoring and warning by UA C2. Ukrainian OBA and Operativny ZSU reports on RF aviation strike on Zaporizhzhia district indicates rapid and coordinated C2 for public warning and information dissemination. UA General Staff reports 1010 RF personnel losses in 24 hours, indicating effective C2 for battlefield reporting. Kryvyi Rih Mayor's status report "situation controlled" indicates effective local C2 and communication. UA General Staff daily maps confirm ongoing C2 awareness and reporting across multiple sectors. NEW: UA General Staff reporting clashes across multiple axes shows continuous situational awareness and command over forces. NEW: UA Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's report on RF losses in Kursk demonstrates effective C2 for intelligence gathering and public communication. NEW: Kharkiv Oblast Administration Head Oleh Syniehubov's report on Kharkiv strikes shows effective regional C2 for information dissemination and public warning. NEW: UA Southern Defense Forces reporting continued RF attempts in Dnipro island zone indicates ongoing monitoring and response C2. NEW: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України's post indicates effective internal military C2 for motivation and communication. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows UA drone engaging RF drone, demonstrating effective tactical C2 for counter-drone operations. NEW: ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» video confirms effective tactical C2 for drone interception. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ video shows UA FPV drone targeting RF soldier, indicating effective tactical C2 for precision strikes. NEW: Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація and Оперативний ЗСУ sharing minute of silence videos demonstrates effective C2 for national remembrance and morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Defensive Posture: Critical defensive posture, particularly on Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka-Pokrovsk axes, facing high pressure. Fortification efforts ongoing. Successful HUR special forces operations in Sumy Oblast and continued combat in Kursk Oblast. Repelled RF attack on Hoptivka (Kharkiv). CRITICAL: RF entry into Rodynske requires immediate decisive shift. UA forces continue to hold defense around Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration. Information about encirclement is false. UA engaging RF at mine east of Rodynske. UA video content emphasizing high attrition for RF mobilized forces demonstrates active and effective defensive posture. Kryvyi Rih situation reported as controlled. UA General Staff daily maps provide an overview of UA defensive posture and engagements. NEW: UA General Staff reports clashes across multiple axes (Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Kherson, Kursk/North Slobozhansky), indicating active defensive posture across the front. NEW: UA General Staff reports repelling 1 Russian army assault on Kherson direction, and 13 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, demonstrating readiness to repel attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Air Defense Posture: Active and adaptive, with significant UAV interception rates and new counter-UAV system development. Continues vulnerability to ballistic missiles and massed drones. Video confirms UA 45th Separate Artillery Brigade's success in downing ZALA and Supercam drones. Ballistic missile threat alert in Zaporizhzhia and other regions demonstrates continued active UA air defense posture, now lifted. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issued an alert, reinforcing active air defense posture. Air Force of Ukraine reporting new FAB launches on Zaporizhzhia indicates continued active monitoring and warning by UA C2. Confirmed RF aviation strike on Zaporizhzhia district, buildings damaged, 3 WIA, indicates continued vulnerability to aviation strikes. RF MoD claims 51 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions (including Crimea) overnight, implying significant UA drone activity targeting RF territory, testing RF PVO. Bryansk Governor reports 16 enemy UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast overnight. "Dnevnik Desantnika" (RF) claims RF Geran-2 UAVs struck a gas distribution station near Odessa overnight, implying a successful penetration. NEW: Операция Z reports 51 Ukrainian drones downed over 5 RF regions (reiterating RF MoD claim). NEW: ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» video confirms successful engagement of RF Zala and Supercam drones. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows UA drone dropping grenade on RF "crane" (drone), indicating successful counter-drone operations. Air Force of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv, with assets deployed to shoot them down. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Counter-Drone Innovation: Continues to be a strength. The noted "logjam" in the retail distribution of retrievable drones, indicates high consumption and a critical need. "Shadow" unit's receipt of Mavic drones indicates continued efforts to procure/integrate new drone tech. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows UA drone engaging RF drone. NEW: ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» video confirms successful engagement of RF Zala and Supercam drones, indicating continued counter-drone innovation and effectiveness. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ video shows UA FPV drone targeting RF soldier, confirming continued FPV drone use. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Morale: High public anxiety due to persistent RF strikes and casualties. Ocheretyne breakthrough and confirmed entry into Rodynske will severely impact morale and create significant concern over Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad security. Morale boosts from air defense successes, HUR operations, and confirmed international aid. Challenges persist with individual soldier welfare, internal corruption, and public resistance to mobilization. Zelenskyy's discussion with Trump about war termination aims to boost public confidence in diplomatic efforts. Deputy Head of OP Iryna Vereshchuk's public statement that "this war is for a long time" indicates a shift towards managing long-term public expectations. TASS reporting women soldiers from UA leave recalled to Kharkiv Oblast for deployment. While propaganda, this reflects RF attempts to demoralize UA forces by suggesting manpower shortages, indicating a perception of vulnerability in UA morale. UA General Staff's report of 1010 RF personnel losses in 24 hours will be a morale boost. NEW: UA Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's report of over 77,000 RF losses in Kursk and destruction of RF equipment will serve as a significant morale boost for UA forces and public. NEW: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України's post "Preparing two surprises for Russians, they will die in batches" indicates high morale and aggressive intent. NEW: Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація and Оперативний ЗСУ sharing minute of silence videos demonstrates efforts to maintain morale through remembrance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
International Aid Integration: Successful integration of NATO-funded US equipment. NATO's formal coordination of aid supplies represents significant commitment. Confirmation of new aid from Croatia. Video confirms new aid from Croatia for ZSU. Pentagon confirms approval of new military aid package to Ukraine. Reuters reports US approved sale of M777 howitzer repair services for Ukraine for $203.5M, indicating continued long-term support for artillery sustainment. "Shadow" unit's receipt of Mavic drones from Canadian diaspora confirms continued direct aid from international support. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video showing UA 7th Airborne Division paratroopers requesting donations for drones and Starlink, highlights continued need for and integration of international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Medical Capabilities: Video from 5th Assault Brigade stabilization point highlights robust frontline medical care. NEW: UA Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 12 injured (including 4 children) from RF strike, indicating continued strain on civilian medical services. RBC-Ukraine and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS photo messages confirm 2 KIA and 12 WIA in Zaporizhzhia district, confirming casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:
- Successful interception/suppression of 29/46 RF UAVs. Video confirms 45th Separate Artillery Brigade's success in downing ZALA and Supercam drones. Nikolaevskiy Vanyok reports initial 26 "mopeds" targeting Izmail reduced to 18, confirming successful air defense engagement. LATEST UPDATE: "All clear" for drone threats in Mykolaiv and Odesa.
- Development and confirmed deployment of "Mongoose" jet interceptor drone.
- Successful HUR special forces operation in Sumy Oblast and continued combat in Kursk Oblast. UA Operativny ZSU provides archival footage of SSO operations in Kursk region. UA General Staff commemorates Kursk offensive operation.
- Successful defense of Hoptivka border crossing (Kharkiv).
- Confirmed +500M USD in new military aid from Sweden, Norway, Denmark via PURL. NATO commencing coordination. US approved new $203.5M military aid. Pentagon confirms approval of new military aid package. "Shadow" unit received 2 new Mavic drones from Canada.
- SBU detentions of FSB agents.
- Engagement of RF forces at a mine east of Rodynske by STARFALL unit.
- UA 44th Separate Artillery Brigade destroyed RF artillery (1x D-30, 3x D-20) and a drone storage.
- Rostov Oblast incident (explosion at RF military unit), likely fratricide/malfunction.
- Good conversation with NATO SG Mark Rutte.
- "Steel Border" Border Guard Brigade intercepted 3 Supercam and 2 Zala drones in Sumy Oblast.
- Zelenskyy's public rejection of "air truce" idea based on RF's history of violations.
- General Staff refutes claims of Pokrovsk encirclement.
- UA tactical aviation reportedly struck a concentration of RF drone operators in Kherson.
- Ukrainian drone footage showing strike on RF vehicle on Pokrovsk direction.
- Successful air defense against ballistic missile threat in Kyiv.
- UA video highlighting high attrition for RF mobilized forces.
- Confirmed drone strike on Trostyanska railway station in Rostov Oblast.
- Prompt issuance and subsequent clearance of ballistic missile threat alerts by UA authorities.
- Spokesperson for Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine, Vladyslav Voloshyn (RBC-Ukraine), reports RF conducting small assaults and regrouping in Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating successful UA containment.
- Reuters reports US approved sale of M777 howitzer repair services for Ukraine for $203.5M, ensuring long-term artillery sustainment.
- RBC-Ukraine reports multiple explosions in Bryansk (RF) this morning, with Russians complaining of unknown drone attack, demonstrating successful UA deep strike capability.
- "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports 'good UAVs again attacked the swamp empire' with video of explosions/fires, confirming UA deep strikes.
- UA General Staff reports 1010 RF personnel losses in last 24 hours, indicating continued high attrition of RF forces. Kryvyi Rih Mayor reports situation controlled. NEW: UA General Staff reports repelling 1 Russian army assault on Kherson direction, demonstrating successful defense. NEW: UA General Staff reports repelling 13 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, highlighting successful defensive efforts against RF border pressure. NEW: UA Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi states over 77,000 RF servicemen (including 4,000 DPRK citizens) killed and wounded, and 7236 units of RF equipment destroyed/damaged in the Kursk grouping of forces' area of responsibility over the past year, indicating significant RF losses due to UA operations. NEW: UA Southern Defense Forces confirm inflicting significant losses on the enemy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Setbacks:
- CRITICAL: RF penetration into Ocheretyne and confirmed entry into Rodynske, representing significant tactical setback and immediate threat to Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad.
- Fatalities (2) and wounded (13) in Lozova due to RF massed UAV strike.
- Persistent RF "fire pressure" on Konstantinovka.
- Confirmed air bomb attack on Kupyansk, causing civilian casualties.
- Damage to civilian infrastructure in Nikopol district from UAV/artillery.
- Power outages in parts of Sumy due to RF attack.
- "Gerbera" type drone with 2kg explosives fell in Lithuania.
- RF claims destruction of a Croatian-made RAK-SA-12 MLRS.
- A Ukrainian military blogger notes a "logjam" in retail distribution/production of retrievable drones.
- Confirmed Shahed drone strikes near Orlivka, Odessa Oblast, resulting in large fires.
- Four fatalities in Tula Oblast due to explosive device detonation, indicating an internal security incident/setback for RF. ASTRA confirms 4 KIA in Tula Oblast due to grenade explosion by previously convicted servicemember returned from war, indicating a domestic security setback.
- Ballistic missile threats in Zaporizhzhia and other regions indicate continued vulnerability to high-speed RF strikes, now cleared.
- Renewed FAB strikes on Sumy Oblast.
- Colonelcassad video claiming FPV drone destruction of UA transport and ammunition in Kharkiv direction, if confirmed, represents a loss of critical UA logistics/materiel.
- Yan Gagin's claim (TASS) about UA rear logistics remaining in "liberated Chasiv Yar," if verified, would be a significant setback.
- Colonelcassad video (02 AUG) claims FPV drone KVN strike and destroyed a masked UA T-64BV tank in Pokrovsk, representing a loss of UA armor. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - for claim, HIGH for potential impact).
- TASS (Andrey Marochko) states the loss of Yanvarske forces UA to transfer reserves to the western borders of the DPR to contain the RF army, which if true, is a significant territorial setback. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for the statement, MEDIUM for the actual loss and subsequent troop movement).
- Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
- Nearly 200 people without power in Zolotyarevka Khutor, Rostov Oblast, due to UAV attack indicates localized setback for RF infrastructure.
- Air Force of Ukraine reports guided aerial bomb launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia, confirming continued vulnerability to aerial bombardment. Confirmed RF aviation strike on Zaporizhzhia district, 3 WIA, buildings damaged. ASTRA reports 2 KIA, 3 WIA in Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to RF attacks over the past day. "Dnevnik Desantnika" (RF) claims RF Geran-2 UAVs struck a gas distribution station near Odessa overnight, implying a successful RF strike against Ukrainian energy infrastructure. NEW: UA Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 12 injured (including 4 children) from RF strike, indicating continued civilian casualties. Photo evidence of damaged buildings in Zaporizhzhia district confirms civilian infrastructure damage. NEW: Kharkiv Oblast Administration Head Oleh Syniehubov reports Kharkiv city and 5 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were struck by RF yesterday, indicating continued vulnerability to RF strikes. NEW: ASTRA reports 1 civilian KIA in Pokrovsk due to RF strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
- TASS (Russian power structures) claim UA forces are retreating from positions in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, if verified, would be a setback. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL & URGENT: More advanced and layered air defense systems (missile and counter-UAV), especially for critical infrastructure and population centers.
CRITICAL: Immediate allocation of strategic reserves to counter-attack and stabilize the Ocheretyne-Rodynske axis and reinforce lines around Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad.
CRITICAL PRIORITY: Real-time ISR assets (UAV, SIGINT) to identify RF force composition, objectives, target C2/artillery, locate FAB/KAB platforms, and verify all unconfirmed RF claims. Specific focus on identifying Lancet/FPV drone operator teams near Rodynske. Urgent requirement for drones and Starlink for frontline units confirmed. Urgent call for drone deployment on Pokrovsk direction tonight. Address the "logjam" in drone retail/production to ensure sufficient supply. Continued support for procurement of drones from sources like Canadian diaspora as shown by "Shadow" unit. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video confirms continued and urgent need for drones and Starlink for UA frontline units.
HIGH PRIORITY: Rapid mine-laying capabilities and counter-battery fire against RF artillery and EW systems, particularly along Ocheretyne-Rodynske and Chasiv Yar axes.
CRITICAL PRIORITY: Comprehensive strategy to address public resentment towards mobilization, ensuring efficient and fair recruitment, and bolstering human resources, including medical support.
HIGH PRIORITY: Consistent and rapid material support/replacement for frontline units via state procurement and accelerated Brave1 funding. US approval for M777 repair is a positive step for long-term artillery sustainment.
HIGH PRIORITY: Continued international financial resources (e.g., seized Russian assets).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF Propaganda: Continues to glorify VDV, exaggerate territorial gains (Rodynske will be heavily emphasized), showcase logistics efficiency. The claim of urban battles in Kupyansk will be pushed. Actively signals strategic escalation (missile moratorium). Robust internal security narratives. Kadyrov's new directive indicates heightened focus on controlling information space. RF will leverage Belarus's potential shift in war legislation. RF will frame Rostov Oblast explosion to deflect blame. RF will use "Gerbera" drone incident in Lithuania to imply UA aggression. RF pushing narratives about "foreign terror" and mercenaries in Kursk. RF media will frame "air truce" proposal as benevolent gesture. RF channels are amplifying Trump's statements about US withdrawal from the conflict. RF military blogger rejects "air truce" as beneficial to UA. RF Foreign Ministry claims attack on RF PNA representation vehicle as "gross violation of Vienna Convention." RF media will leverage Estonian NGO embezzlement story. RF media highlights alleged long sentence for Head of Gagauzia. RF media claims UA position in Pokrovsk is "catastrophic." RF UN representative Polansky claims "Kursk adventure" failed. RF video on Lancet/Zoopark cooperation serves to highlight RF military technical superiority. RF military channels are promoting the alleged destruction of a Croatian-made MLRS (RAK-SA-12). Alexander Khinshtein's public statement about punishing "invaders" in Kursk will be used to reinforce the narrative of UA aggression. TASS video of Ukrainian POW claiming to prefer RF prison is a direct psychological operation. TASS report on efforts to compensate for "Carpet Plan" delays aims to show responsiveness. The memorial event in Kursk aims to rally public support. RF proxy "Russian Kherson" claims Kyiv is evacuating civilians. The imagery on the Colonelcassad patch (Cerberus/СЕВЕР) with violent themes serves as unit-level propaganda. TASS video of another Ukrainian POW claiming foreign mercenary involvement is a direct propaganda effort. TASS report on Crocus attack trial further demonstrates RF's continued use of legal proceedings to frame narratives. TASS photo message claiming "Sputnik V" superiority reinforces RF's self-perception. TASS reporting on "Boomerang" FPV drones indicates a new propaganda push. Yan Gagin's claim (TASS) about UA logistics remaining in "liberated Chasiv Yar" serves as propaganda. Colonelcassad's video claim of FPV drone destruction of UA transport/ammunition in Kharkiv will be used to demonstrate RF FPV drone effectiveness. Colonelcassad video (02 AUG) claims FPV drone KVN strike and destroyed a masked UA T-64BV tank in Pokrovsk will be used to demonstrate RF FPV effectiveness against UA armor. TASS (Andrey Marochko) statement on Yanvarske's loss will be leveraged to emphasize RF gains and UA setbacks in DPR. Peskov's statement (TASS) on lack of RF-US leadership meeting aims to minimize US influence. TASS (Khinshtein) stating UA acted as "occupiers" in Kursk is direct RF information warfare to demonize UA. TASS video of Ukrainian POW escaping to Russia for asylum is a direct propaganda effort to demoralize UA forces. Colonelcassad releases video of RF ATGM/recoilless rifle teams destroying UA armored vehicles and firing positions, reported by RF MoD, serving as a propaganda piece for RF capabilities. TASS reports on residents of Kherson/Zaporizhzhia reporting UA coordinates to RF is likely propaganda to show local support and encourage defection. TASS claims mercenaries from 12 countries are opposing RF in Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts in "buffer zone" creation, serving to justify RF aggression and demonize UA forces. TASS report of women soldiers from UA leave recalled to Kharkiv Oblast for deployment is likely propaganda to demoralize UA by portraying manpower shortages. RF SpN "Anvar" claims of burning UA equipment reinforce RF offensive narratives. RF MoD claim of 51 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions (including Crimea) overnight will be heavily promoted to demonstrate RF air defense effectiveness. Bryansk Governor's report of 16 UAVs destroyed will be used similarly. "Dnevnik Desantnika" (RF) claims RF Geran-2 UAVs struck a gas distribution station near Odessa overnight will be used to highlight successful deep strikes. TASS messaging about UN SG Guterres's speech on Hiroshima, omitting US responsibility while focusing on nuclear threats, indicates RF intent to leverage global events to shape narratives on nuclear weapons and blame without direct attribution. Public Chamber proposal for "carpet plan" flight delay compensation will be used to show responsiveness to internal civilian discontent. TASS reports Vodolatsky's opinion on Gutsul's verdict in Moldova, indicating RF intent to destabilize Moldova and frame its government as oppressive. Police of Khabarovsk Krai posts indicate RF intent to show domestic order/security. Kotsnews photo of "Year since the invasion" is propaganda reinforcing RF narratives. TASS reports decreased alcohol consumption in Moscow, indicating RF intent to portray social improvements. Colonelcassad's new video serves as additional propaganda for RF special forces effectiveness. TASS (Russian power structures) claim UA forces are retreating from positions in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast will be used to show RF success. Rybar video map analysis confirms RF advances in Volchansk, Kharkiv region, which will be leveraged as propaganda. WarGonzo provides a map of the Zaporizhzhian front, which will be used to demonstrate RF gains. NEW: TASS reports Vodolatsky claims Kyiv declared war on children by Myrotvorets website inclusion, a new propaganda push to demonize Ukraine. NEW: Дневник Десантника (RF) promoting "Тихий" and "Сибиль" as heroes in Kursk further reinforces RF narrative of heroic defense against UA aggression. NEW: Воин DV video showing RF UAV strikes on UA personnel and vehicles in Zaporizhzhia will be used as propaganda for RF combat effectiveness. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts on custom leather goods promote civilian products with a nationalistic/masculine tone ("Made with soul for real Russian men"), contributing to a broader cultural narrative supporting military service. NEW: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны shares video of Witkoff's arrival, convoy, and walking, controlling the narrative around the diplomatic visit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
UA Counter-Propaganda/Information Operations: Focuses on documenting RF war crimes and civilian casualties (Lozova, Kupyansk air bomb attack, new Kharkiv drone attack injury, new Shahed strike in Odessa, new explosions/FAB strikes/aviation strike in Zaporizhzhia, new strike on Odessa gas distribution station). Actively highlights cross-border operations (Sumy liberation, Kursk combat, Bryansk/Rostov drone strikes) and exposes RF falsehoods. Highlights RF internal issues. Emphasizes international aid and high-level diplomatic engagement. UA media reports on Rodynske and "epicenter of fighting" being Pokrovsk direction. UA will leverage Rostov Oblast incident. Zelenskyy's discussion with Trump will be framed as successful diplomatic engagement. Zelenskyy's rejection of "air truce" overture based on RF's history of violations is a strong counter-narrative. Video from 5th Assault Brigade stabilization point showcases UA humane treatment. General Staff's public refutation of Pokrovsk encirclement is a strong, rapid counter-info op. Deputy Head of OP Iryna Vereshchuk's public statement about the war being "for a long time" aims to manage public expectations. UA video portraying RF mobilized forces as suffering high attrition. Николаевский Ванёк's real-time updates on incoming drone numbers and their reduction serves to show effective UA air defense. Confirmed drone strike on Trostyanska railway station in Rostov Oblast directly counters RF narrative of security. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports 'good UAVs again attacked the swamp empire' with video of explosions/fires, serving as an IO highlighting successful deep strikes. UA Operativny ZSU provides archival footage of SSO operations in Kursk region, which serves as a powerful IO. UA General Staff commemorates Kursk offensive operation, shaping the narrative. Ukrainian OBA and Operativny ZSU reports on RF aviation strike on Zaporizhzhia district and casualties serve as immediate counter-narrative on RF aggression. UA General Staff reports 1010 RF personnel losses in 24 hours to highlight RF casualties. Kryvyi Rih Mayor's "situation controlled" message aims to reassure local population. UA "Shadow" unit's video acknowledging Canadian drone support serves to highlight international backing. UA General Staff maps serve as official counter-narrative to RF claims. NEW: UA Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's report on over 77,000 RF losses in Kursk and destruction of RF equipment is a significant counter-propaganda piece, designed to highlight RF attrition. NEW: Kharkiv Oblast Administration Head Oleh Syniehubov's reports on Kharkiv strikes will continue to highlight RF aggression. NEW: UA Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports and photos on civilian casualties and damaged buildings will be used to highlight RF war crimes. NEW: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України's post "Preparing two surprises for Russians, they will die in batches" serves as a morale booster and statement of intent. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing UA drone dropping grenade on RF "crane" serves as a counter-propaganda piece highlighting UA tactical success. NEW: ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» video showing successful drone interceptions highlights UA air defense effectiveness. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ video shows UA FPV drone targeting RF soldier with "stick," serves as a psychological warfare piece and demonstrates continued FPV use. NEW: Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація and Оперативний ЗСУ sharing minute of silence videos reinforce national unity and resilience. NEW: UA Southern Defense Forces reporting inflicted losses on RF serves as a counter-propaganda piece. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Ukraine: High public anxiety due to persistent RF strikes and casualties. Ocheretyne breakthrough and confirmed entry into Rodynske will severely impact morale. Morale boosts from air defense successes, HUR operations, international aid. Challenges persist with individual soldier welfare, internal corruption, and public resistance to mobilization. Zelenskyy's discussion with Trump about war termination aims to boost public confidence in diplomatic efforts. Deputy Head of OP Iryna Vereshchuk's public statement about the war being "for a long time" reflects and might influence public sentiment. The immediate "Attention!" air raid warnings likely increase public anxiety but also demonstrate transparency. Confirmed Shahed strikes in Odessa Oblast, visible from Romania, will cause significant public anxiety. Ballistic missile threat alerts will cause further public anxiety but rapid warnings may mitigate immediate panic, now cleared. Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast will add to public anxiety. Reports of FAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia will exacerbate public anxiety. RF aviation strike on Zaporizhzhia district with casualties will cause significant public anxiety and outrage. New strike on Odessa gas distribution station will contribute to public anxiety. UA General Staff's casualty reports for RF will boost morale. Kryvyi Rih Mayor's status report "situation controlled" aims to reassure local population and maintain morale. NEW: UA Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports of 12 injured (including 4 children) and photo evidence of damaged buildings will severely impact public sentiment and cause outrage. NEW: Kharkiv Oblast Administration Head Oleh Syniehubov's reports on Kharkiv strikes will contribute to public anxiety. NEW: ASTRA reports 1 civilian KIA in Pokrovsk due to RF strike, adding to public anxiety. NEW: Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація and Оперативний ЗСУ sharing minute of silence videos indicates a collective public sentiment of mourning and resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Russia: Morale boosted by VDV glorification and claims of territorial gains. Underlying issues of internal disciplinary problems, economic hardships, aggressive mobilization tactics. Kadyrov's directive suggests internal concerns. Rostov Oblast incident will be a blow to public confidence. RF recruitment efforts (high financial incentives) indicate need to attract personnel. Potential "air truce" could be spun internally as diplomatic victory. Military blogger's report of FSO father's urgent meeting suggests anxiety/concern within RF elite. Military blogger's public rejection of "air truce" suggests a segment of RF public/military might view de-escalation as weakness. Sevastopol treason convictions highlight internal suppression. Public appeals and donations for soldiers suggest a mixed picture of public support. Z-blogger's claim of being hunted could signal internal instability. Public collection for "frontline vehicles" suggests state funding might be insufficient. Trump's statements about US withdrawal from the conflict may be perceived positively. TASS video of Ukrainian POW aims to demoralize UA and boost RF morale. TASS report on compensation for "Carpet Plan" delays signals government responsiveness. The memorial event in Kursk aims to rally public support. News of drone strikes on Trostyanska railway station will undermine public confidence. Milonov's call to stop alcohol delivery services could indicate attempts to address social issues. Tula Oblast detonation will cause public concern. TASS report on a civilian legal proceeding related to the Crocus attack, framed as "Tverskie terrorists," highlights RF's efforts to project strength in internal security. Power outage in Zolotyarevka Khutor, Rostov Oblast due to UAV attack will negatively impact local public sentiment. Drone attacks in Bryansk will further erode local public confidence in security. TASS report on Ukrainian POW escaping for asylum is aimed at boosting RF morale by portraying UA demoralization. ASTRA report of grenade explosion in Tula by a returned servicemember will cause public concern about veteran integration and internal security. News of Moscow Public Chamber proposing compensation for flight delays due to "carpet plan" suggests widespread impact of drone activity and potential civilian frustration. ASTRA reports on 76-year-old pensioner forced to demolish toilet, indicating internal social issues and potential public discontent. NEW: TASS reports Vodolatsky's claims regarding Myrotvorets and children will aim to outrage the Russian public and demonize Ukraine. NEW: Дневник Десантника (RF) promoting "Тихий" and "Сибиль" as heroes in Kursk suggests an effort to rally patriotic sentiment and boost morale. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts on custom leather goods promote a sense of national pride and masculinity, contributing to a broader cultural narrative supporting military service. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

RF Diplomatic Activity: Continues to engage with non-Western partners (DPRK, Nicaragua, Malaysia, India, Dominican Republic). Actively influences near abroad (Moldova). Leverages perceived Western divisions. Indian NSA/Dep Def Min meetings confirm continued high-level engagement. RF's consideration of "limited air truce" is a direct diplomatic overture. US State Department confirms Witkoff visit to RF. Reuters reports Witkoff expects to meet with RF leadership on August 6. Donald Trump publicly stated he is trying to "get the US out of the military conflict in Ukraine" and that a meeting with Russia is scheduled for "tomorrow." TASS reports US State Dept. urges no premature conclusions on sanctions and that Trump is set for diplomatic resolution. TASS report on lack of direct US-RF presidential meetings highlights a strategic diplomatic point for RF. TASS report on Democratic Senators' view of weakened sanctions under Trump is also a strategic diplomatic point. Trump will meet with Aliyev and Pashinyan in US. TASS reports China is unlikely to stop oil purchases from Russia despite Trump's threats, according to South China Morning Post experts. TASS confirms plane, presumably carrying a US special envoy, entered Russian airspace. TASS messaging about UN SG Guterres's speech on Hiroshima, omitting US responsibility while focusing on nuclear threats, indicates RF intent to leverage global events to shape narratives on nuclear weapons and blame without direct attribution. TASS reports Victor Vodolatsky's opinion on Gutsul's verdict in Moldova, indicating RF intent to destabilize Moldova and frame its government as oppressive. Trump discusses possibility of 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian energy resources, a significant political development for RF. Witkoff confirmed to have arrived in Moscow and met with Dmitriev, confirming high-level diplomatic engagement. NEW: ASTRA video confirms Witkoff's presence in Moscow. NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports Trump will make a statement today, and Оперативний ЗСУ states from the Oval Office, which RF will closely monitor for diplomatic signals. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS photo message confirms Trump special envoy Witkoff arrived in Moscow. NEW: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны shares video of Witkoff's arrival, convoy, and walking, confirming high-level diplomatic activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
UA Diplomatic Activity: Active high-level engagement (Zelenskiy visits, calls with Croatian PM, Trump on drones). Success in securing significant NATO-funded US military aid packages. NATO commencing coordination of large-scale arms supplies. Zelenskyy's meeting/call with NATO SG Mark Rutte confirms ongoing high-level diplomatic engagement. Zelenskyy's discussion with Trump includes war termination. Zelenskyy's rejection of "air truce" overture based on RF's history of violations demonstrates a firm diplomatic stance. Video confirms new aid from Croatia for ZSU. Pentagon confirms approval of new military aid package to Ukraine. Reuters reports US approved sale of M777 howitzer repair services for Ukraine for $203.5M, confirming sustained US commitment to long-term UA capabilities. "Shadow" unit received Mavic drones from Canadian diaspora, indicating continued diplomatic/civilian support. NEW: UA Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's public statement on RF losses in Kursk, mentioning DPRK citizens, could be intended to generate international pressure on DPRK. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
NATO/Western Response: Proactive deterrence (Germany's Eurofighter deployment to Poland). Continued economic pressure on RF. Significant military aid commitments. Polish rearmament plans indicate continued NATO military build-up. US Ambassador to NATO Whitaker confirms US providing "excess" weapons. FT reports Trump admin plans new sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet" if Putin doesn't agree to ceasefire by Friday. British report on continued RF media access in EU indicates a persistent challenge. New Polish President Nawrocki's hardline stance against Germany, EU, and Ukraine suggests potential for shifts in regional alliances. British intelligence support for Israel in Gaza indicates broader Western intelligence focus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA 1 (Exploitation of Rodynske and Encirclement of Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad): RF will reinforce and exploit confirmed entry into Rodynske, pushing to cut off logistics routes to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, and initiate direct attacks on these urban centers. TASS (Andrey Marochko) statement on Yanvarske's loss implies aggressive RF follow-up in DPR. UA General Staff report of clashes around Pokrovsk and Rodynske confirms this MLCOA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
MLCOA 2 (Sustained High-Intensity Pressure on Chasiv Yar with Armored Support): RF will continue massed gliding bomb and VDV-led assaults against Chasiv Yar, now with T-90M tanks. RF claim regarding UA logistics remaining in "liberated Chasiv Yar" indicates RF intent to consolidate control and disrupt UA sustainment in this sector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
MLCOA 3 (Continued High-Volume Deep Strikes on UA Infrastructure with Potential for Increased Missile Use and Focused Airfield Targeting): RF will maintain high tempo of UAV and potentially missile strikes against UA rear-area critical infrastructure and civilian targets. Confirmed Shahed drone strikes in Odessa Oblast. New ballistic missile threats in Zaporizhzhia and other regions, now cleared. Renewed FAB strikes on Sumy Oblast. Expect continued missile/drone/FAB/aviation strikes on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Expect continued UA drone strikes into RF border regions, specifically targeting logistics (railways) and potentially military facilities (Bryansk), which RF PVO will attempt to repel. "Dnevnik Desantnika" (RF) claims RF Geran-2 UAVs struck a gas distribution station near Odessa overnight, supporting this MLCOA. UA General Staff reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Khliborob of Sumy region, Olhivka, Kozatske, Daryivka of Kherson region. NEW: Воин DV video shows RF UAV strikes on UA personnel and vehicles in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating continuation of this MLCOA. NEW: Kharkiv Oblast Administration Head Oleh Syniehubov reports Kharkiv city and 5 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were struck by RF yesterday, confirming continued deep strikes. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms strike on Tatsinskaya railway junction in Rostov Oblast, supporting continued deep strikes on RF logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
MLCOA 4 (Intensified Pressure on Kupyansk with Urban Combat): RF will intensify offensive operations in the Kupyansk sector, aiming for urban combat. Colonelcassad video claims FPV drone destruction of UA transport and ammunition in Kharkiv direction. Rybar video map analysis confirms RF advances in Volchansk, Kharkiv region, indicating intent to push in Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
MLCOA 5 (Localized Probing Attacks and Border Pressure with Adapted Tactics): RF continues localized attacks across various sectors, including cross-border shelling and UAV reconnaissance in Sumy/Chernihiv, and small-unit infiltration in South. Spokesperson for Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine, Vladyslav Voloshyn (RBC-Ukraine), reports RF conducting small assaults and regrouping in Zaporizhzhia direction, supporting this MLCOA. Colonelcassad reports on "roaming gun" ATGM tactics suggest continued adaptation of localized, mobile precision strike units. RF SpN "Anvar" claims to be burning UA equipment and positions near the Sumy border in support of RF advance. "Dnevnik Десантника" (RF) video showing active combat operations with artillery and armored vehicles is consistent with this MLCOA. Colonelcassad releases new video claiming special forces engaging UA positions, equipment and drones, consistent with localized probing. WarGonzo provides a map of the Zaporizhzhian front, which likely details RF advances. NEW: UA General Staff reports clashes near Piddubne, Voskresenka, Shevchenko, Zelenyy Hay, Zelene Pole, Novodarivka and towards Ivanivka, Novoivanivka on Novopavlivka direction. NEW: UA General Staff reports clashes near Stepove and Plavni on Orikhiv direction. NEW: UA General Staff reports clashes near Temyrivka on Huliaipole direction. NEW: UA General Staff reports repelling 1 Russian army assault on Kherson direction. NEW: UA General Staff reports repelling 13 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. These reports confirm RF maintaining pressure across multiple localized axes. NEW: TASS (Marochko) reports RF forces increased pressure on UA positions in southern Kremensky forests near Hryhorivka and Serebryanka, supporting this MLCOA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
MLCOA 6 (Information Dominance and Justification): RF will continue to use its media apparatus to publicize successes, denigrate UA, justify actions, and suppress internal dissent. RF will likely exploit captured soldier's video. RF propaganda will heavily promote any "air truce." RF channels will heavily amplify Trump's statements. RF will continue to release propaganda featuring Ukrainian POWs claiming foreign mercenary involvement. RF will continue to use the Crocus attack trial to reinforce narratives of internal security threats. RF will continue to use reports on civilian issues (e.g., flight delays) to demonstrate concern for internal security and public welfare. RF will continue to use RF internal social issues (e.g., IQOS, traffic fines) in their state media to portray normalcy and concern for the population, diverting from war-related issues. RF will continue to posture diplomatically via state media (Peskov statement) to influence international perception. RF will continue to use official statements from figures like Khinshtein to frame Ukraine as an aggressor and justify RF actions. RF will heavily promote the Ukrainian POW claiming asylum to demoralize UA forces. RF will use reports of residents in occupied territories providing UA coordinates as propaganda to demonstrate local support. RF will continue to propagate claims of foreign mercenaries opposing their advances to justify aggression. RF will use claims of UA recalling women soldiers from leave to portray UA manpower shortages and demoralize forces. RF will use UN SG Guterres's comments on Hiroshima to push narrative regarding nuclear weapons and blame without direct attribution. RF will continue to use claimed high UAV interception rates over its territory (e.g., 51 UAVs) to demonstrate defensive strength. RF will continue to destabilize Moldova and frame its government as oppressive. RF will leverage Trump's discussion of 100% tariffs to sow discord. RF will continue to promote domestic order and social improvements. NEW: RF will push the narrative that Kyiv is declaring war on children (Myrotvorets) to demonize Ukraine. NEW: RF will continue to promote figures like "Тихий" and "Сибиль" as heroes of the Kursk operation to rally support. NEW: RF will use Воин DV's video to promote combat effectiveness. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА will continue to post promotional content with nationalistic undertones to bolster morale and support for military-aligned lifestyles. NEW: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны will continue to control the narrative around diplomatic visits. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
MLCOA 7 (Increased Strategic Alignment with Belarus): RF will continue to pressure Belarus to align its domestic legislation and military posture more closely with RF objectives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
MLCOA 8 (Continued Force Generation for Long-Term Conflict): RF will proceed with stated plans to form 10 new divisions by year-end. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
MLCOA 9 (Internal Security Crackdown): RF will continue to use legal instruments and security services to suppress perceived internal dissent. The ASTRA report of a returned servicemember causing a grenade explosion reinforces the likelihood of internal security challenges and subsequent crackdowns or propaganda efforts to manage them. NEW: RF's domestic police focus (Khabarovsk video) indicates continued efforts to manage internal order. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
MLCOA 10 (Exploitation of Western Political Divisions): RF will actively seek to exploit and amplify perceived divisions within Western political landscapes. TASS report on China's continued oil purchases is aimed at showing resilience to Western pressure. NEW: RF will closely monitor Trump's upcoming statement for opportunities to exploit or amplify Western divisions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
MLCOA 11 (Social Engineering and Demographics): RF will likely implement social support programs (e.g., mortgage initiatives) aimed at addressing demographic issues and potentially incentivizing loyalty. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
MLCOA 12 (Focus on AI/Technological Advancement): RF will continue to invest in and seek to integrate AI and other advanced technologies, likely for military and industrial applications, as indicated by increased demand for AI directors. (CONFIDENCE: LOW).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA 1 (Rapid Exploitation of Rodynske to Widen Breakthrough and Encircle Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad with Breakthrough to Konstantinovka): RF could achieve rapid and deep penetration from Rodynske, bypassing UA fortifications and threatening to encircle multiple UA defensive lines, leading to large-scale collapse and opening direct path towards Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Simultaneous push towards Konstantinovka could sever key logistics routes. The confirmed entry into Rodynske makes this extremely high-probability/impact MDCOA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
MDCOA 2 (Coordinated Simultaneous Decisive Offensive on Chasiv Yar and Kupyansk): RF could launch decisive, large-scale armored assault on Chasiv Yar, coordinated with significant offensive on Kupyansk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
MDCOA 3 (Escalation to Tactical Missile Strike on Key UA Strategic Asset with New Missile Types): RF could conduct high-impact, precision missile strike using previously constrained short/medium-range missiles. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Unless air truce implemented).
MDCOA 4 (Direct Threat from Belarus): Belarus, having altered war legislation and considering martial law, could conduct limited cross-border incursions or expand direct support for RF operations. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - now increased due to martial law consideration).
MDCOA 5 (Exploitation of "Air Truce" for Ground Reinforcement): If "air truce" implemented, RF could exploit reduced air threat to rapidly resupply, reinforce, and redeploy ground forces to achieve decisive breakthroughs. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - contingent on air truce).
MDCOA 6 (Broadened Nuclear Rhetoric/Actions): RF internal discussions ("red buttons") and previous signaling suggest a low-probability but high-impact MDCOA of increasing overt nuclear saber-rattling or conducting highly provocative actions to deter Western support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - but high impact if occurs).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

Next 24-48 Hours:
- HIGH PROBABILITY: RF will attempt to reinforce and rapidly exploit gains in Rodynske, pushing towards Pokrovsk or Myrnohrad, and intensifying fire on Konstantinovka. This is most critical immediate threat. TASS (Andrey Marochko) statement on Yanvarske's loss implies aggressive RF follow-up in DPR. UA General Staff reporting active clashes in Pokrovsk and Rodynske confirms this immediate threat.
- HIGH PROBABILITY: Continued intense air/artillery bombardment of Chasiv Yar, coupled with VDV assaults and T-90M support. RF will likely continue attempts to disrupt UA rear logistics in Chasiv Yar, as indicated by Gagin's claim.
- HIGH PROBABILITY: Continued frequency of RF deep strikes using UAVs (e.g., Shaheds, Geran-2s) and guided aerial bombs against UA rear-area critical infrastructure and civilian targets (e.g., Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kyiv). LATEST UPDATE: Current drone threat to Mykolaiv and Odesa has been neutralized, indicating a temporary cessation of a major drone wave, but the intent for deep strikes remains. Expect continued ballistic missile threats in Zaporizhzhia and other regions, now cleared. Expect continued missile/drone/FAB/aviation strikes on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Expect continued UA drone strikes into RF border regions, specifically targeting logistics (railways) and potentially military facilities (Bryansk), which RF PVO will attempt to repel. "Dnevnik Desantnika" (RF) claims RF Geran-2 UAVs struck a gas distribution station near Odessa overnight, supporting this MLCOA. UA General Staff reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Khliborob of Sumy region, Olhivka, Kozatske, Daryivka of Kherson region. NEW: Kharkiv Oblast Administration Head Oleh Syniehubov reports Kharkiv city and 5 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were struck by RF yesterday, reinforcing this immediate threat. Air Force of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv, with assets deployed to shoot them down, confirming immediate threat of target acquisition for strikes.
- HIGH PROBABILITY: Intensification of offensive operations in Kupyansk, with continued air bomb attacks and potential for direct urban engagement. Rybar video map analysis confirms RF advances in Volchansk, Kharkiv region, indicating intent to push in Kharkiv.
- HIGH PROBABILITY: RF will continue small assaults and regrouping on the Zaporizhzhia direction as reported by Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces. WarGonzo provides a map of the Zaporizhzhian front, which likely details RF advances. NEW: UA General Staff reporting clashes on Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, and Kherson directions confirms continued localized assaults. NEW: TASS (Marochko) reports RF forces increased pressure on UA positions in southern Kremensky forests near Hryhorivka and Serebryanka.
- Decision Point: UA High Command must decide on immediate and decisive allocation of strategic reserves to Ocheretyne-Rodynske-Pokrovsk axis to prevent wider operational collapse, potentially requiring redeployments, within next 6-12 hours.
- Decision Point: UA High Command must assess implications of Belarusian legislative changes and consideration of martial law, and prepare contingency plans for potential increased activity on northern border, within next 24 hours.
- Decision Point: UA High Command must assess implications of reported "air truce" discussions (genuine or deception) and Trump's upcoming meeting with Russia, and Trump's meeting with Aliyev/Pashinyan. Contingency plans must be developed, particularly regarding air defense posture and ground force readiness. Immediate intelligence collection on details paramount, within next 24 hours. UA C2 has publicly rejected this, but preparedness for its imposition or consequences remains. Trump's discussion of 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian energy resources, and Witkoff's arrival in Moscow are direct signals. NEW: Trump's upcoming statement today (reported by RBC-Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, TASS) is a critical decision point for RF and UA to monitor closely, requiring immediate intelligence analysis and potential adaptive communication strategies.
- Decision Point: UA High Command must assess implications of potential new US sanctions on RF "shadow fleet" and prepare communication strategy, within next 24 hours.
- Decision Point: UA High Command to assess immediate needs for drones and Starlink for frontline units, prioritizing allocation and procurement from external sources, within next 12 hours. Address the "logjam" in drone retail/production to ensure sufficient supply. Leverage new Mavic drone aid. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video confirms continued and urgent need for drones and Starlink for UA frontline units, necessitating immediate C2 decision on resource allocation.
- Decision Point: UA High Command to assess the implications of the new Polish President's hardline stance on Poland's border and regional cooperation, and prepare diplomatic/information responses, within next 24 hours.

INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

URGENT & CRITICAL: Immediate, high-resolution IMINT/VISINT verification of precise extent of RF control within Rodynske and surrounding areas.
URGENT: Independent, multi-source verification of RF claims of territorial gains, specifically: Popiv Yar, Yanvarske, capture of 6 UA servicemen in Serebryansky forestry, "massive raid" on UAV control points of 25th brigade in Myrnohrad, RF deep strikes on Starokostiantyniv and Khmelnytskyi Oblast airfield infrastructure, and confirmation of RF "urban battles" in Kupyansk, and confirmed ground advances towards Konstantinovka. Confirmation of RF claims of destroying three UA UAV CPs near Siversk, destroying UA mortar/pickup near Konstantinovka, and destruction of Croatian-made RAK-SA-12 MLRS. Independent verification of RF proxy claims regarding UA civilian evacuation from right bank Kherson. Assessment of reported "firing/burning" in Novozelye/Orlovka areas of Southern Ukraine. Verification of new RF propaganda claims regarding foreign mercenaries in "Kraken" national battalion. Independent verification of widespread adoption and tactical impact of "Boomerang" FPV drones as claimed by TASS. Verification of Yan Gagin's claim about UA rear logistics remaining in "liberated Chasiv Yar." Independent verification of Colonelcassad's claim of FPV drone destruction of UA transport and ammunition in the Kharkiv direction. Independent verification of Colonelcassad's claim of FPV drone KVN strike and destruction of UA T-64BV tank in Pokrovsk. Independent verification of Colonelcassad's new claim regarding RF ATGM/recoilless rifle teams destroying UA armored vehicles and firing positions using "roaming gun" tactics. Independent verification of TASS claim regarding Ukrainian POW seeking asylum in Russia. Independent verification of TASS claims regarding mercenaries from 12 countries in Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Independent verification of TASS claim regarding UA women soldiers recalled to Kharkiv Oblast from leave. Independent verification of RF SpN "Anvar" claims of burning UA equipment/positions near Sumy border. Independent verification of TASS claim regarding 20 personnel destroyed at UA command post in Novoselivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Independent verification of RF MoD claim of 51 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions (including Crimea) overnight and Bryansk Governor's claim of 16 UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast overnight. Independent verification of TASS claim that UA forces are retreating from positions in Dnipropetropetsvk Oblast. Independent verification of RF 35th Army 'Vostok' Group UAV strikes on UA personnel/vehicles in Zaporizhzhia Oblast via Воин DV video. Independent verification of RF claims (Дневник Десантника) of saving Kursk civilians and heroic defense. Independent verification of Kharkiv Oblast Administration Head Oleh Syniehubov's report on Kharkiv strikes. Independent verification of TASS (Marochko) report of increased RF pressure in southern Kremensky forests near Hryhorivka and Serebryanka. Independent verification of ASTRA report of 1 civilian KIA in Pokrovsk.
URGENT & CRITICAL: Detailed assessment of Bloomberg report regarding potential "limited air truce" and Trump's upcoming meeting with Russia: Confirm veracity and specific terms; assess internal RF support/opposition; analyze potential RF motivations and Western response implications. Assess specific content and implications of Trump's public statements on US withdrawal and upcoming meeting, and the nuanced US State Department reaction. Assess implications of Trump's upcoming meeting with Aliyev and Pashinyan for US foreign policy focus related to Ukraine. Monitor Trump's discussions regarding 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian energy resources for implications on RF economy. Monitor and analyze Trump's upcoming statement today (RBC-Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, TASS) for specific content and its immediate diplomatic and military implications.
CRITICAL: Detailed ISR (SIGINT, IMINT, OSINT, HUMINT) on specific composition, strength, and objectives of RF grouping exploiting advance into Ocheretyne/Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad, and their logistics.
CRITICAL: Location and readiness of RF operational reserves for Chasiv Yar or Avdiivka-Pokrovsk axes, and any indications of prepared second-echelon forces for Kupyansk offensive, including verification of RF's goal of forming 10 new divisions.
HIGH PRIORITY: Identification of precise locations of RF forward CPs, fire-control centers, Lancet/FPV drone operator teams, and EW emitters (including 'KULBABA' systems) directing Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka-Pokrovsk assaults, and on the Southern Front (Zaporizhzhia). Further details on Lancet/Zoopark radar system deployment and targeting, and any specific Buk-M2 deployment zones.
HIGH PRIORITY: Assessment of impact of declining RF oil and gas revenues on long-term military sustainment, particularly in light of potential "shadow fleet" sanctions. Monitor for any significant shifts in China's oil import policy.
ONGOING: Monitoring of RF internal security operations for indicators of broadened mobilization efforts or increased internal dissent/instability, especially following convictions like in Sevastopol. Investigation into Z-blogger "Trinadtsatiy"'s claims of being hunted. Monitor for further Telegram account removals as part of RF information control. Investigate details of Tula Oblast explosive device detonation, including cause and any potential links to internal resistance or sabotage. Monitor public and legal proceedings related to the Crocus attack, especially for broader implications on RF internal security and narrative control. Investigate domestic social issues like the pensioner forced to demolish a toilet to understand broader civilian sentiment in RF. Monitor internal RF police activities (Khabarovsk video) for insights into domestic security priorities. Assess the reported increase in demand for AI directors in Russia for its potential impact on RF military technological development. Analyze the significance of АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА's posts promoting civilian goods with nationalistic undertones for broader internal RF mobilization/support efforts.
HIGH PRIORITY: Further collection on RF motivations and capabilities related to public statements on lifting short/medium-range missile moratorium.
Detailed assessment of Belarusian military readiness, force deployments, and implications of proposed changes to their war legislation and consideration of martial law.
Monitoring of India-Russia military-technical cooperation for any indications of direct military aid.
Detailed assessment of damage and origin of strike on RF military unit in Rostov Oblast.
Further investigation into "Gerbera" drone incident in Lithuania to determine origin and intended target.
Continued monitoring of humanitarian situation in occupied territories (Makeyevka water supply) for indicators of RF logistical strain or stabilization intent.
Monitor internal RF elite sentiment regarding potential escalation (e.g., FSO reports) for indicators of strategic shifts.
Assess capacity of UA medical facilities to manage high combat casualty rates, given ongoing intense fighting. Specifically, assess civilian medical capacity in Zaporizhzhia following RF strikes and the reported 12 injured, including children.
Monitor new RF Special Forces unit (SpN "Akhmat" / 'Kursk') activity and claims in Kursk Oblast for specific operational intent.
Verification of UA claim of successful tactical aviation strike against RF drone operators in Kherson.
Verification of RF claims regarding assault on Stepnogorsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Assess implications of UA Rada MP's statement on Pokrovsk logistics, verify RF impact on supply routes.
Assess the reported "logjam" in retail/production of retrievable drones in Ukraine. Determine root causes (supply, demand, logistics) and potential mitigation strategies. Investigate the explicit request for drones and Starlink from UA 7th Airborne Division paratroopers, and assess if this indicates a systemic shortage or a unit-specific need.
Monitor RF efforts to establish new diplomatic/travel ties (e.g., Dominican Republic) for broader strategic implications.
Assess the impact and specifics of the Buk-M2 AD system deployment and its operational effectiveness against UA air assets.
Monitor TASS reporting on US-RF diplomatic relations (e.g., lack of presidential meetings) and US internal politics (e.g., Democratic Senators' views on sanctions) to understand RF information objectives.
Assess the impact and dissemination of the RF propaganda video featuring the Ukrainian POW, and the new video claiming foreign mercenary involvement, and the video claiming asylum.
Monitor the implementation and public reception of the proposed compensation for "Carpet Plan" delays in Russia.
Assess damage and operational impact of confirmed drone strikes on Trostyanska railway station in Rostov Oblast. Identify specific railway infrastructure targeted. Further analyze the ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video for additional insights.
Monitor any public reaction or follow-up regarding Sergei Mironov's mortgage proposals within Russia, for insight into social stability efforts.
Investigate the Colonelcassad patch imagery (Cerberus/СЕВЕР), focusing on the specific unit or ideological group it represents, and its potential implications for RF combat conduct and propaganda.
Assess the impact of the confirmed Shahed drone strikes in Odessa Oblast on local infrastructure and civilian morale. Analyze the effectiveness of UA air defenses against this particular wave. Investigate the claimed RF Geran-2 strike on Odessa gas distribution station.
Monitor public discourse and potential social impacts following Milonov's call to stop alcohol delivery services within RF.
Assess the implications of newly elected Polish President Nawrocki's stance on Germany, EU, and Ukraine for regional alliances and Western unity.
Monitor the scope and implications of British intelligence assistance to Israel in Gaza, particularly any resource implications for intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
Immediate analysis of the new ballistic missile threat on Zaporizhzhia and other regions, including potential launch sites, trajectory, and estimated impact areas, and its subsequent clearance. Identify type of explosion in Zaporizhzhia, differentiate from air defense/impact. Confirm targets of new FAB/aviation strikes in Zaporizhzhia. Analyze photo evidence of damaged buildings in Zaporizhzhia district. Assess the impact of civilian casualties (2 KIA, 12 WIA, including children) on local sentiment and operational environment.
Monitor the impact and public/political reception of US sanctions on RF Senator Suleiman Kerimov's yacht.
Assess the implications of RF's domestic news reporting, particularly on non-military issues (e.g., IQOS, traffic fines, decreased alcohol consumption), for broader information control and internal stability.
Monitor TASS reporting of Khinshtein's statements regarding UA actions in Kursk for ongoing RF information operations and potential shifts in narrative.
Confirm RF PVO success in Rostov Oblast and assess impact of power outage on military-relevant infrastructure. Investigate specific targets of UA drone strikes in Bryansk.
Monitor RF internal transport infrastructure issues (e.g., Amur region bypass road, Luhansk-Moscow highway bus crash) for any potential impact on military logistics, however minor. Assess the significance of the TASS civilian convoy video in this context.
Investigate the RF military map from "@RYBAR" (Dva Mayora) and WarGonzo to identify any shifts in claimed control or operational emphasis, and compare with independent sources. Analyze new UA General Staff maps for Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Huliaipole axes.
Monitor the activities of the US special envoy during their visit to Russia for any potential diplomatic breakthroughs or shifts in US-RF relations. Specifically, assess the implications of Witkoff meeting Dmitriev (confirmed via ASTRA video and Операция Z videos).
Investigate the TASS claim of residents in occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia providing UA coordinates to RF forces to assess its veracity and any implications for Ukrainian HUMINT/counter-intelligence efforts.
Monitor and analyze RF military channels' (e.g., "Dnevnik Desantnika", Colonelcassad, Воин DV) combat footage for indications of new tactics, equipment, or areas of operational focus. Analyze new Two Mayora video of radio station donations to RF SpN Española for insights into their communication capabilities and sustainment.
URGENT: Verify and assess the reported over 77,000 RF casualties and 7236 equipment losses in the Kursk grouping of forces' area of responsibility, as claimed by UA Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi. This figure requires immediate detailed analysis for accuracy and implications.
Monitor RF attempts to gain foothold in Dnipro island zone (Kherson direction) as reported by UA Southern Defense Forces, including specific tactics and force size. Analyze photos from UA Southern Defense Forces for confirmation of RF losses.
Assess implications of RF reconnaissance UAV activity in Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Sumy regions for potential future RF strikes.

RECOMMENDATIONS

(IMMEDIATE ACTION - COMMAND EMPHASIS) Divert all immediately available tactical and operational reserves to Ocheretyne-Rodynske-Pokrovsk axis. Prioritize establishing robust defensive line, containing RF breakthrough, and launching spoiling attacks.
(IMMEDIATE ACTION) Intensify real-time ISR (UAV, SIGINT, overhead assets) on Avdiivka-Pokrovsk axis with extreme urgency to provide dynamic targeting data for RF maneuver units, logistics, and C2 nodes. Prioritize intelligence collection on RF intentions and capabilities related to reported "air truce" and the upcoming Trump-Russia meeting, and Trump's meeting with Aliyev/Pashinyan. Implement urgent drone deployment on Pokrovsk direction tonight as requested by STERNENKO.
(PRIORITY ACTION) Enhance counter-battery fire missions against identified enemy artillery positions and EW systems supporting Chasiv Yar and Ocheretyne-Rodynske advances. Prioritize suppression of Lancet/FPV drone teams, particularly by locating and targeting their operators. Prioritize targeting of identified RF radar systems like "Zoopark" that support Lancet operations, and any identified Buk-M2 components.
(PRIORITY ACTION) Expedite deployment of advanced air defense systems (including recently acquired PURL assets and new aid from Croatia and the new US $203.5M package, and the new M777 repair services, and new Mavic drones from Canada) to protect critical logistics hubs and population centers in Kharkiv (especially Kupyansk), Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Kyiv Oblasts. Prioritize rapid scaling of "Mongoose" and similar counter-UAV systems. LATEST UPDATE: While the immediate drone threat to Mykolaiv and Odesa is neutralized, maintain vigilance and preparedness for future waves. Contingency: Prepare for rapid redeployment of air defense assets if "air truce" significantly alters air threat. Prioritize air defense assets to counter ballistic missile threats in Zaporizhzhia and other regions, given the recent alert, even if cleared. Allocate air defense assets to Zaporizhzhia immediately in response to new explosions and FAB/aviation strikes, particularly to protect civilian areas and recreation bases following confirmed casualties. Strengthen air defenses around critical energy infrastructure, such as the gas distribution station near Odessa, following reported RF strikes. Prioritize air defense for Kharkiv city and oblast following new RF strikes. Allocate air defense assets to counter reconnaissance UAVs in Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Sumy to prevent target acquisition.
(PRIORITY ACTION) Develop and implement comprehensive, transparent, and fair strategy to address public resentment towards mobilization, ensuring efficient and fair recruitment, and bolstering human resources, including medical support.
(ONGOING ACTION) Continue offensive cross-border operations (drone/sabotage) against RF military targets and critical infrastructure in RF territory to tie down RF resources and apply reciprocal pressure. Prioritize targeting RF railway infrastructure, particularly hubs and lines supporting frontline operations (e.g., Trostyanska railway station / Tatsinskaya railway junction) and military facilities (e.g., Bryansk). Continue SSO operations in Kursk region.
(ONGOING ACTION) Sustain diplomatic efforts to secure additional and faster military aid, particularly for air defense, counter-battery, and mobile mechanized capabilities, emphasizing urgent needs (drones, Starlink). Leverage recent US approval for M777 repair. Utilize the confirmed Pentagon aid package as a key point in diplomatic messaging.
(ONGOING ACTION) Intensify intelligence efforts to exploit internal RF vulnerabilities for strategic information operations. Proactively counter RF narratives regarding Moldova/Gagauzia and their "foreign mercenaries" claims in Kursk. Leverage Zelenskyy's statements on RF's history of violating agreements. Develop clear communication strategy to counter RF amplification of Trump's statements and reinforce consistent Western support narratives, emphasizing the nuanced US State Department position. Counter RF propaganda using the Ukrainian POW video by highlighting RF coercion and human rights violations, and specifically counter the narrative of foreign mercenary involvement and asylum seeking. Proactively counter RF proxy claims of UA civilian evacuation from Kherson, providing transparent information to residents. Prepare counter-propaganda addressing RF's use of unit patches with violent imagery to project an image of brutality. Address and counter RF claims regarding UA logistics in Chasiv Yar and FPV drone destruction of UA transport/ammunition in Kharkiv, by providing accurate and verified information. Proactively counter RF claims of foreign mercenaries in Sumy/Dnipropetrovsk and UA recalling women soldiers from leave, by providing accurate information on UA force strength and composition. Proactively counter RF narratives stemming from UN SG Guterres's speech on Hiroshima by providing a clear and factual account of the historical event. Proactively counter RF propaganda claiming Kyiv declares war on children via Myrotvorets website. Leverage UA Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's reported RF casualties in Kursk to undermine RF morale. Proactively counter RF claims of UA retreat from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
(NEW - URGENT ACTION) Conduct immediate planning and contingency preparations for potential increase in threat from Belarus, including reinforcement of northern border defenses, given their consideration of martial law.
(NEW - URGENT ACTION) Formulate clear and coordinated public communication strategy regarding reported "air truce" proposal and the upcoming Trump-Russia meeting, emphasizing UA’s principled rejection based on RF’s past actions while preparing for potential impacts.
(NEW - HIGH PRIORITY) Increase monitoring of cross-border drone activity, particularly near NATO member states, and coordinate intelligence sharing with allied nations.
(NEW - URGENT ACTION) Prepare for rapid communication and information operations to leverage any new US sanctions on RF's "shadow fleet" to undermine RF's economic stability and morale.
(NEW - PRIORITY ACTION) Prioritize immediate procurement and distribution of critical equipment, specifically drones and Starlink, to frontline units identified as having urgent needs. Address the reported "logjam" in drone supply chain to ensure rapid and consistent delivery of necessary equipment.
(NEW - PRIORITY ACTION) Develop and disseminate analysis on the potential geopolitical implications of the new Polish President's hardline stance, and its impact on Western unity and support for Ukraine.
(NEW - IMMEDIATE ACTION) Evaluate the tactical implications of RF's confirmed small assaults and regrouping in Zaporizhzhia, and adapt defensive postures to counter these new tactics.
(NEW - IMMEDIATE ACTION) Assess the veracity and implications of the claimed loss of Yanvarske and subsequent UA troop redeployments in DPR, and adjust operational planning for the western borders of DPR accordingly.
(NEW - PRIORITY ACTION) Conduct detailed analysis of RF's FPV drone capabilities, particularly the "Boomerang," "VT-40," and "KVN" models, including their production rates, operational range, and targeting methodologies, to develop effective countermeasures. This includes investigating the confirmed FPV tank strike in Pokrovsk. Evaluate RF's new "roaming gun" ATGM tactics and develop countermeasures.
(NEW - PRIORITY ACTION) Conduct immediate and robust counter-intelligence operations in occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts to disrupt RF efforts to gather UA coordinates via local population, and protect UA assets.
(NEW - IMMEDIATE ACTION) Evaluate the current RF efforts to gain a foothold in the Dnipro island zone (Kherson direction) and develop countermeasures for small-unit amphibious assaults.

Situation Report

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS