Southern Ukraine (Kherson Oblast): Confirmed severe damage to a bridge in Kherson with a large crater visible. Local authorities are urging evacuation of the Korabelny district due to disrupted gas supply. RF sources (Colonelcassad, Fighterbomber, Старше Эдды, Alex Parker Returns, Басурин о главном) explicitly state "new hits in the area of the bridge... it would be good to have 2-3 more FABs into the damaged span to collapse it," "Очередное поражение, очередного моста" with accompanying video of a large explosion on a bridge, and debate "why FAB-3000 did not fold it immediately." UA Air Force warns of FAB launches towards Kherson city. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides video showing firefighters responding to a significant building fire in Kherson, consistent with recent strikes. Оперативний ЗСУ and RBC-Ukraine confirm RF aviation attacked the Kherson bridge. ASTRA reports 2 dead, 11 wounded in Kherson and Oblast due to RF attacks, citing National Police. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and STERNENKO confirm new RF aviation attacks on Kherson, specifically targeting the bridge area. RBC-Ukraine reports restricted transport movement over the bridge in Korabelny district due to repeated attacks and UAV activity. NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns posts video captioned "С утра на мост в Херсоне продолжает прилетать. Работает артиллерия, дроны и чугуний. Быть добру!" showing an aerial view of the bridge with ongoing strikes and fires.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO provides video showing an aerial view of a bridge being targeted and destroyed by artillery fire, causing significant damage and structural collapse, captioned "Your drones are already destroying bridges in Russia!" This indicates UA capabilities against bridges in RF territory, but the specific bridge in the video is not immediately identifiable as the Kherson bridge. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for UA capability, LOW for specific bridge identification) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Antonivka bridge at Kherson direction, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Kherson and Lvove of Kherson region, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Southern Ukraine (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): IAEA reports explosions near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast have been intermittent. UA Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports one (1) person killed and three (3) wounded due to enemy attacks in Zaporizhzhia district. RF sources (Воин DV) claim successful destruction of enemy vehicles in Zaporizhzhia Oblast by operators of the 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, 35th Army Group "Vostok," providing grainy thermal footage of vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for ZNPP/alerts/casualties; MEDIUM for claimed effectiveness of RF strikes) Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been cleared. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UA Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts a video message celebrating Air Force Day, reinforcing morale and public support for the Air Force. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Дневник Десантника" posts a photo message captioned "🪂 Запорожское направление," which is a map displaying geographical locations and markers indicating military activity. Дневник Десантника also shares aerial footage of an explosion in a wooded area in Zaporizhzhia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" also posts video of an aerial strike in a wooded area on the Zaporizhzhia front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Bilohirya, Novoandriyivka, Hryhorivka, Richne, Veselyanka of Zaporizhzhia region, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Kamyanske at Orikhiv direction, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Southern Ukraine (Mykolaiv Oblast): Continued reporting and visual evidence (RBC-Ukraine, ASTRA, STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦) confirm significant damage to private residences in a Mykolaiv residential district from a missile strike (X-22 missile impact confirmed). Mykolaiv Oblast Administration reports seven (7) casualties due to a missile strike, with four (4) receiving on-site medical assistance. ASTRA also reports 7 casualties after missile attack on Mykolaiv, citing Oblast Head. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides video confirming three (3) private houses completely destroyed, 23 private houses and 12 multi-story buildings partially destroyed or damaged, and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides photos of the destruction. Николаевский Ванёк reports on the previous day's X-22 missile. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок posts photo of result of night missile strike on object in Mykolaiv. NEW INTEL: RBC-Ukraine posts video captioned "У Краматорську зросла кількість жертв цинічного удару по п'ятиповерхівці" showing emergency response to damaged residential buildings, confirming civilian casualties.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Eastern Ukraine (Kharkiv Oblast): An enemy UAV was detected over Kharkiv, followed by an explosion. Another explosion was reported in Chuhuiv. UA Air Force confirmed Geran-2 type UAVs targeting Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv, hitting a warehouse near residential buildings with no casualties. Explosions also reported in Chuhuiv, hitting a private residential area with three women suffering acute stress reactions, and Balakliia, where one person was injured from a drone hit. Oleg Synegubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, reports that Kharkiv city and 9 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were targeted by enemy strikes over the past day, confirming widespread impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for drone detection and explosions; HIGH for widespread impact in Kharkiv Oblast) RF sources (Операция Z) claim control of the Hoptivka border checkpoint. (CONFIDENCE: LOW for RF claim of Hoptivka control – no independent verification) Colonelcassad posts video captioned "Volchansk is under control. Finishing off the remains of the enemy," showing drone footage of strikes on buildings marked with Ukrainian flags, indicating continued RF operations in Vovchansk. The video is watermarked "TROOP GROUPING 'SEVER'". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UA Air Force reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV detected northeast of Samar (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), with a course towards Kharkiv Oblast. Forces are engaged for its destruction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, warns of significant weather deterioration in Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts photos celebrating Air Force Day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Vovchanski Khutory and Krasne Pershe at South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides informational message on situation in their operational zone as of morning 03.08.2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Eastern Ukraine (Zaporizhzhia Oblast - Olhovske): RF sources claim successful artillery strikes by the 305th Artillery Brigade of the 5th Army Group "Vostok" against enemy targets in Olhovske. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - for claimed effectiveness; HIGH - for RF artillery activity)
Eastern Ukraine (General): RF sources provide drone footage of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade operators destroying "armament and material means of the enemy," including dugouts and machine gun crews, in the area of responsibility of the 5th Army Group "Vostok." RF sources also claim FPV drone brigades are controlling both ground and air. Воин DV posts video claiming destruction of a UA armored vehicle by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade on the South-Donetsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for activity; MEDIUM for claimed effectiveness) UA (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) reports from a soldier (callsign "Chaika") of the 1st battalion of the 4th Separate Special Purpose Brigade of the National Guard "Rubizh" on the Pokrovsk direction, discussing a close encounter with an FPV drone, indicating active FPV drone combat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad posts a video captioned "Сбитие FPV-дрона ВСУ из стрелкового оружия!", which shows a reconnaissance or patrol mission by military personnel in a rural area, with a drone or UAV present, implying tactical operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for activity, MEDIUM for claimed shoot-down verification). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС channel posts new video showing drone footage of military operations, likely involving artillery strikes or close air support, with a Ukrainian military insignia visible, indicating active combat and UA successes against RF assault groups in Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claims "Vostok" group is forming a security zone in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with reactive artillery and UAVs destroying enemy positions near Yanvarsky and Velikykhailivka, providing multiple videos. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Kotsnews posts a video captioned "Войны роботов под Константиновкой" showing drone footage of military vehicles and engagements, including a vehicle hit by artillery/mortar fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts video captioned "Їхній страх — наша робота" showing FPV drone strikes against enemy military vehicles and equipment, including an armored vehicle, with multiple explosions and destroyed targets. The video also shows thermal imagery of targets.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Eastern Ukraine (Chasiv Yar/Konstantinovka): TASS military expert claims Kyiv has withdrawn UA forces from Chasiv Yar to Konstantinovka and is building defenses. Colonelcassad reports the UA 4th Separate Tank Brigade (A7015) has been re-formed into a heavy mechanized brigade. STERNENKO posts a video captioned "На Костянтинівському напрямку окупантам ДУЖЕ сподобалась робота ваших дронів. Просять ще." showing a burning truck from a drone strike on the Konstantinovka direction. TASS reports Ukrainian forces in Konstantinovka are forming focal defenses and attempting to strengthen flanks by transferring reserve forces from other front sectors, citing Advisor to DNR head Kimakovsky. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - for validity of Chasiv Yar claim, high for RF narrative; MEDIUM for 4th Tank Brigade re-formation - requires independent verification; HIGH for active drone combat in Konstantinovka direction)
Eastern Ukraine (Serebryanka, DNR): TASS military expert Marochko reports Kyiv has strengthened its grouping near Serebryanka in DNR and is attempting to dislodge RF Armed Forces. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - for UA reinforcement, HIGH - for RF narrative and reported combat activity) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Serebryanka at Lyman direction, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF Territory (Multiple Oblasts & Black Sea): RF MoD claims 93 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over various regions of RF and the Black Sea, including 60 over the Black Sea and 1 over Crimea. This is an increase from the previously reported 41. Colonelcassad confirms "damage - hit on a fuel barrel in Adler." Военкор Котенок reports "Противник ночью атаковал нефтебазу в Адлере. Объекту нанесен определенный ущерб." КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts photos claiming "БПЛА Сил Оборони України уразили дві цистерни з паливом на території паливно-заправного комплексу ТОВ "Базовий АвіаПаливний Оператор"." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for UA drone activity; MEDIUM for RF claim of destruction rate, HIGH for confirmed damage). Multiple explosions and air alerts reported in Voronezh, attributed to unknown drones. Geolocation efforts confirm footage from one residential complex. RF Governor confirms approximately 15 UAVs destroyed over Voronezh and three districts, with the number of injured increasing to 4 (TASS). ASTRA reports 4 injured in Voronezh. TASS now claims over 25 drones destroyed over Voronezh Oblast. Additional reports confirm a private residential house burned down in Voronezh following a UAV attack. Video footage from RF sources (Операция Z) with "Zhest Voronezh" watermark further confirms explosions/fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Sochi Airport had temporary restrictions which have now been lifted. "Операция Z" is reporting "Enemy attacks Sochi". Explosions and fires reported in Sochi, with sirens active. RF claims Sochi/Adler air defenses are successfully repelling a "strongest UAV attack" for over an hour. A fire is reported in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, RF. ASTRA reports fire in Adler after UAV attack near a local oil refinery (NPP). ASTRA shares more video of explosions and sirens in Sochi, including evacuation of passengers to bomb shelters at Sochi airport with complaints of lack of water. RF sources report a fuel reservoir fire at an oil depot in Sochi after a UAV attack. Pskov Airport had temporary restrictions which have now been lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports 127 personnel and 35 units of equipment are extinguishing a fire at an oil depot in Adler; a store is also burning. Bryansk Oblast Governor reports three (3) UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast by RF MoD air defense (previously reported as two). ASTRA provides additional video confirming large fire at Rosneft-Kubannefteprodukt oil depot in Adler after UAV attack. Colonelcassad reports one tank burning at the Adler oil depot and garages damaged by a downed drone after a large UAV attack. ASTRA provides video of moment of UAV attack on oil depot near Adler airport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA video titled "Hit the oil depot and again the garages" provides additional visual evidence of fire in Adler, Sochi area, after drone attacks. This confirms a second impact on a garage cooperative in addition to the oil depot. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO and Operatyvnyi ZSU channels provide additional video and photo evidence of the Adler oil depot fire, confirming the scale and intensity. ASTRA provides photos confirming the Adler fire is localized. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports a "UAV attack danger" has been announced in the western, southern, and eastern districts of Leningrad Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Nizhny Novgorod Governor Gleb Nikitin reports a UAV attack was repelled overnight, with no casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF MoD and "Операция Z" / "Дневник Десантника" all claim 93 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over 7 regions, including the Black Sea. UA Air Force reports 76 drones and 7 missiles attacked Ukraine overnight; 61 targets were shot down/suppressed. ASTRA reports 73 UAVs and 7 missiles attacked Ukraine overnight. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 61/83 air targets destroyed overnight. Рыбарь posts drone attack map, confirming widespread drone activity within RF territory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for UA drone activity, HIGH for confirmed damage, MEDIUM for exact destruction rates - discrepancy between RF and UA claims) ASTRA reports a UAV was shot down in a Pskov village where a military unit is located. TASS reports temporary restrictions at Pulkovo airport (St. Petersburg) are fully lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Pskov Airport (Pulkovo) had temporary restrictions in place, per Rosaviatsia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that over 25 flights are delayed from Sochi airport, and five planes that diverted to alternative airfields have returned. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports restrictions at Pulkovo Airport in St. Petersburg. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports three (3) Ukrainian UAVs intercepted and destroyed over Leningrad Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of drone attack on Sochi oil depot, claiming use of "Lyutyi" drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of natural weather event destroying a beach and bridge in Krasnodar Krai, along with a sarcastic comment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA posts video of civilians sheltering during UAV attack in Adler, showing distant glow from fire. NEW INTEL: Филолог в засаде posts "НПЗ под ударом. Чем ответить «беспилотному Герингу»?" confirming the oil refinery was hit and indicating concerns within RF about the effectiveness of UA drone attacks.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF Territory (Jewish Autonomous Oblast): TASS reports derailment of tank cars and leakage of ship fuel. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports this, with accompanying video, indicating 5 tank cars overturned with spilled fuel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for event occurrence, LOW - for combat-related cause)
RF Territory (Kamchatka): TASS reports a 6.8 magnitude earthquake off the coast of Kamchatka, with a potential 19 cm tsunami. This is a natural disaster with no immediate military intelligence implications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS also reports a video of the first observed eruption of the Krasheninnikov volcano on Kamchatka. ASTRA also reports and provides video of the Krasheninnikov volcano eruption, noting it's the first time since the 1400s. This is a natural phenomenon with no military implications. Басурин о главном posts several photos captioned "#ПриродаРоссия" of nature scenes, including a volcano. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы confirms the Kamchatka volcano eruption, first time in 600 years. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна also reports on the Kamchatka volcano eruption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Central Ukraine (Kyiv): Air raid alert declared in Kyiv due to ballistic missile threat, with a missile confirmed on a course towards Kyiv. Explosions heard, with RF sources confirming a ballistic missile strike. Kyiv city military administration confirmed a missile attack. Air raid alert cleared. A new ballistic missile threat was declared from the South, which has now been cleared. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts multiple photos celebrating Air Force Day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Central Ukraine (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): UA Air Force reports group of UAVs past Pavlohrad heading towards Dnipro. RBC-Ukraine confirms this drone movement. Dnipropetropov Oblast Administration reports two (2) drones shot down in the region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UA Air Force reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV detected northeast of Samar (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), with a course towards Kharkiv Oblast. Forces are engaged for its destruction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV claims a "FAB 3000" strike on a UA temporary deployment point (PVD) in Novoselivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with accompanying drone video. TASS also claims RF Armed Forces destroyed the command post of the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade of the AFU with a FAB-3000 strike in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, providing video. Alex Parker Returns also posts a video titled "Прилет трехтонного чугуния по укрепу хохлов в Днепропетровской области." This is a major claim, indicating continued deep strike capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for FAB 3000 effectiveness, HIGH for RF targeting activity) Colonelcassad reports a thermal anomaly at the Synelnykove Traction Substation in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UA Air Force warns of threat of aviation weapon use in Synelnykove district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Central Ukraine (Zhytomyr Oblast): UA Air Force reports groups of UAVs moving past Malin and Radomyshl, then into Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Northeastern Ukraine (Sumy Oblast): UA Air Force reports new groups of attack UAVs entering via Sumy Oblast. These UAVs are then reported moving from Sumy Oblast to Poltava Oblast (Hadiach, Komyshnia, Myrhorod) and Cherkasy Oblast (Smila, Drabiv, Cherkasy). UA Air Force also notes activity of enemy reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy Oblast, which may be target designators for enemy assets, with possible air defense work. UA Air Force warns of UAVs detected over Sumy. TASS claims that "more than 10 servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine disappear daily in Yunakovka, Sumy Oblast." This RF claim suggests sustained cross-border activity in Sumy region and potential RF pressure tactics. TASS message claims "Lightly wounded AFU soldiers joined assault groups for transfer to Sumy." This suggests a possible reinforcement of UA positions in Sumy or preparations for offensive action. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - for validity of RF claims; HIGH - for RF narrative intent and drone movements) WarGonzo provides a "Frontline summary for the morning of 03.08.25" map for the Sumy direction, depicting alleged RF military activity. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for depicted activity, HIGH for RF narrative) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports UA forces repelled 20 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts "🪂 Курская область", implying RF activity in border regions.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Northern Ukraine (Chernihiv Oblast): UA Air Force reports group of UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast, course towards Slavutych. These UAVs continue movement from Chernihiv Oblast to Kyiv Oblast, past Ivankiv. UA Air Force reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV detected east of Snovsk, Chernihiv Oblast, heading southwest, noting possible air defense work and that it is a potential target designator. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV north of Chernihiv, heading southwest, with assets engaged for destruction. NEW INTEL: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posts "На півдні від Чернігова - розвідувальний БпЛА противника, курс - південно-західний (орієнтовно н.п.Гончарівське)! Даний безпілотник є потенційним навідником ворожих засобів ураження. Залучено засоби для його збиття." confirming another reconnaissance UAV in the area.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF Occupied Territories (Southern Donetsk Oblast): RF sources (Colonelcassad) claim 29th Army Group "Vostok" is advancing towards Iskra, a settlement bordering Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, dropping leaflets on enemy positions. Colonelcassad posts a photo message claiming "Противник скорбно признает общее ухудшение ситуации в Красноармейской агломерации," claiming penetration of RF DRGs into southern Krasnoarmeysk and advancement near Sukhetsky and Rodinsky, threatening operational encirclement of UA forces. Операция Z reports that Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrsky claims "total infiltration" of RF forces is changing the front situation, putting Pokrovsk in danger. This is a significant acknowledgement of the threat. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - for claimed advance, high for leaflet drop and RF intent; MEDIUM for claimed penetration/advance in Krasnoarmeysk - requires independent verification, HIGH for Syrsky's acknowledgement of threat) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Maliyivka, Voskresenka, Novopil, Temyrivka, Tolstoy, Myrne, Zelene Pole and towards Filiya at Novopavlivka direction, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF Occupied Territories (Donetsk People's Republic): TASS reports local residents transferred information about a Territorial Recruitment Center (TCC) in Druzhkivka to Russian security forces, resulting in an RF strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for RF claim and IO intent, LOW - for independent verification of strike effectiveness). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС channel posts new video showing drone footage of military operations, likely involving artillery strikes or close air support, with a Ukrainian military insignia visible, indicating active combat and UA successes against RF assault groups in Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video claiming Russian forces published video of yesterday's Shahed strike on a TCC in Druzhkivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 also posts a video claiming strikes also hit a market and an Aurora store in Kramatorsk, and that "new series Gerbera 3 Shaheds" were arriving every 40 minutes, providing video of the aftermath, including damaged residential buildings and market stalls. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ТАСС reports a tank on the Donetsk direction fired at a record range of 13.3 km during the "liberation" of a settlement, highlighting improved effectiveness due to drone observation. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - for claimed record, HIGH - for RF adaptation) Военкор Котенок posts video claiming "Вынос двух украинских РЛС в ближнем тылу противника," showing a vehicle hit by artillery or mortar fire. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - for claimed RLS destruction, HIGH - for RF targeting activity) Народная милиция ДНР posts video claiming "Истребление тяжёлых дронов ВСУ «Баба-Яга» силами ПВО и беспилотных систем 51 армии," showing a "Baba Yaga" drone deploying munitions and then in flight. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for claimed destruction, HIGH for RF activity/narrative) "Сливочный каприз" (RF source) posts photo and video messages on Seversk-Ivano-Daryevka direction, showing combined aerial imagery, ground footage, and map overlay, indicating ongoing military operations in the area, with explosions and Russian insignia present. NEW INTEL: "Сливочный каприз" also posts photo messages captioned "Друзья!" without further detail but indicating continued operations.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV posts video claiming "Heroes of Special Operation V," showing a soldier in a damaged building discussing the "liberation of Temirovka," facing enemy defenses and minefields. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS claims authorities in Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk are leaving after the "liberation" of Chasiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: LOW for validity of Chasiv Yar liberation and subsequent departure; HIGH for RF narrative) TASS reports UA partially undermined industrial infrastructure of "Krasnolimanskaya" mine in DNR, citing advisor to DNR head. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Novomarkove at Kramatorsk direction, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Oleksandro-Shultyne, Yablunivka, Scherbynivka and towards Ivanopillya and Stepanivka at Toretsk direction, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Poltavka, Popiv Yar, Volodymyrivka, Krasnyy Lyman , Nykanorivka, Kotlyne, Myrolubivka, Novoekonomichne, Sukhetske, Rodynske, Lysivka, Novopavlivka, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Udachne, Zelenyy Kut, Novoukrayinka at Pokrovsk direction, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Mash на Донбассе posts video of a bus and two cars colliding between Ivanovka and Krasny Luch. While likely a civilian accident, it highlights the potential for road disruptions in occupied territories.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Central Ukraine (Vinnytsia): ASTRA reports five residents detained in Vinnytsia after a protest against the TCC. A case has been opened for "attempted seizure of a state institution." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Mapping Updates: DeepState updates its map. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a DeepState map showing the pace of "creeping occupation" by month, from January to July, with projections to January and February of the following year. WarGonzo provides "Frontline summary for the morning of 03.08.25" maps for Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, Pokrovske, and Sumy directions, indicating RF narrative-driven map updates. Colonelcassad also posts map changes for the past day, and his new claim regarding Krasnoarmeysk. Colonelcassad publishes "Chronicle of strikes on Ukrainian territory 02 August - 03 August 2025" with photo messages and video, likely representing RF-generated strike maps/visuals. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for DeepState, MEDIUM for WarGonzo/Colonelcassad - given RF bias) Liveuamap Source provides map updates for South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), Kupyansk, Lyman, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Kherson, and Kursk/North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
No new significant weather or environmental factors reported directly impacting combat operations, except for Oleg Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, warning of significant weather deterioration in Kharkiv Oblast. Conditions remain generally conducive to continued ground and air operations, with night operations observed for drone attacks and missile strikes. The fire at the Adler oil depot is an environmental consequence of military action. The fuel leak in Jewish Autonomous Oblast is an environmental incident. Video from Colonelcassad shows multiple locations in a city engulfed in flames with significant smoke plumes, indicating widespread destruction likely from recent military activity. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos of a waterspout over the sea and a damaged bridge from likely heavy rainfall/flooding, captioned "Природа теж не дає рашистам розслабитися. Бажаємо такої погоди по всі підоРаші," suggesting natural events impacting some areas. TASS reports a bus fell from a bridge into a river in Kuban, 25 people rescued. ASTRA posts multiple videos of severe flooding in Tuapse district, Krasnodar Krai, showing collapsing bridges, waterspouts, and widespread inundation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Earthquake and volcanic eruption in Kamchatka are natural events with no direct military impact on the ongoing conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of tornado and damaged beach/bridge in Krasnodar Krai due to severe weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports children evacuated from Tuapse district due to bad weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
RF Forces:
Air Assets: Continued extensive use of UAVs (Shaheds, Geran-2) across multiple axes (Kharkiv, Chuhuiv, Balakliia, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi) and deep into RF territory (Voronezh, Sochi, Kstovo, Adler, Pskov, Bryansk, Nizhny Novgorod, Leningrad Oblast). RF MoD claims effective interception of 93 UA UAVs overall, with 3 over Bryansk, 60 over Black Sea, and 1 over Crimea. Ballistic missile threat on Kyiv indicates continued use of high-value strike assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF sources are explicitly calling for additional FAB strikes on the damaged Kherson bridge to collapse it. Fighterbomber publishes video of a bridge strike. TASS claims and provides video of a FAB-3000 strike on a UA command post in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Alex Parker Returns also posts video of a "three-ton cast iron" (FAB-3000) strike in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UA Air Force warns of FAB launches towards Kherson city and Donetsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast and NEW INTEL: Donetsk Oblast.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Bilohirya, Novoandriyivka, Hryhorivka, Richne, Veselyanka of Zaporizhzhia region, Kherson and Lvove of Kherson region, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and STERNENKO confirm new RF aviation attacks on Kherson, targeting the bridge area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad video shows an unidentified aviation unit receiving humanitarian aid (tactical first aid kits), implying continued support for RF aviation assets involved in the SMO. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad video shows drone footage of strikes on Vovchansk with Ukrainian flag markings. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника posts pixelated nighttime video of Sochi, captioned "Night attack on Sochi." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for activity; LOW for detail) Colonelcassad posts video showing alleged downing of a UA FPV drone by small arms fire during a patrol. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for activity, MEDIUM for claimed shoot-down verification). RF reconnaissance UAV is reported heading from Dnipropetrovsk towards Kharkiv and from Chernihiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also reports a reconnaissance UAV south of Chernihiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV claims a "FAB 3000" strike on a UA temporary deployment point in Novoselivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating continued heavy aerial munitions use. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts a video with caption "August is a time for vacations and travel," along with multiple photo messages of tranquil landscapes. This appears to be a morale-boosting or propaganda message to project normalcy within RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 confirms Shahed strikes on Druzhkivka TCC and market/Aurora store in Kramatorsk, noting "new series Gerbera 3 Shaheds." Народная милиция ДНР posts video claiming "Истребление тяжёлых дронов ВСУ «Баба-Яга’." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок posts video claiming "Вынос двух украинских РЛС." (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) TASS reports three (3) Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Leningrad Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of drone attack on Sochi oil depot, claiming use of "Lyutyi" drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports thermal anomaly at Synelnykove Traction Substation, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, likely from a strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Fighterbomber posts a photo of a "Yellow duck" fighter jet from Novosibirsk, a morale-boosting image. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Ground Assets: Active offensive operations continue on the Pokrovsk direction and Vovchansk. Artillery (305th Arty Bde, 20th Army's Msta-S) remains active in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and other fronts. Spetsnaz units (14th Guards) are conducting localized strikes. Elements of 76th Guards VDV confirmed west of Verbove. RF FPV drone units (Brigade "Undeafeatable") are increasingly active, with "Воин DV" claiming FPV destruction of enemy vehicles in Zaporizhzhia. RF claims consolidation in Temirovka. RF 29th Army Group "Vostok" claims advance towards Iskra. RF sources claim UA forces pulled from Chasiv Yar to Konstantinovka. TASS military expert Marochko reports Kyiv has strengthened its grouping near Serebryanka in DNR and is attempting to dislodge RF Armed Forces. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claims "Vostok" group is forming a security zone in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with reactive artillery and UAVs destroying enemy positions near Yanvarsky and Velikykhailivka, providing multiple videos. Colonelcassad claims penetration of RF DRGs into southern Krasnoarmeysk and advancement near Sukhetsky and Rodinsky. TASS reports a tank from "Somali" battalion engaging targets at 13.3 km in Donetsk direction. Воин DV posts video claiming destruction of a UA armored vehicle by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade on the South-Donetsk direction. TASS reports Ukrainian forces in Konstantinovka are forming focal defenses and attempting to strengthen flanks by transferring reserve forces, citing Advisor to DNR head Kimakovsky. Операция Z reports Commander-in-Chief Syrsky claims "total infiltration" of RF forces, putting Pokrovsk in danger. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for activity; MEDIUM for effectiveness claims; LOW for Chasiv Yar claim; HIGH for Serebryanka claim; MEDIUM for Krasnoarmeysk claim; HIGH for Syrsky's acknowledgement) "Dva Mayora" reports Russian forces receiving new "Pantsir-SMD" air defense systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for reporting, MEDIUM for actual widespread deployment). "Dnevnik Desantnika" (VDV-aligned channel) provides a summary ("Svodka"), indicating continued formal reporting and potential consolidation of operational information within VDV channels. Colonelcassad posts a video congratulating paratroopers for a holiday, which includes footage of military personnel receiving medals and participating in ceremonies, further reinforcing the VDV narrative and potentially showing recent operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad notes "Molniya" kamikaze drones with various payloads, suggesting diversification of RF drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника posts a video with two individuals in military attire, identified as paratroopers from the 7th Division of the Zaporizhzhia direction, requesting assistance with acquiring drones for aerial reconnaissance and Starlink satellite internet, highlighting equipment gaps. The same channel now posts a map showing activity on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Дневник Десантника also posts aerial footage of an explosion in a wooded area in Zaporizhzhia. "Два майора" also posts video of an aerial strike in a wooded area on the Zaporizhzhia front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad provides a video showing individuals, identified as part of 'ZParaBellumMD' and the '25th Brigade', claiming to be Bryansk border guards and reconnaissance units from the Kherson direction, soliciting donations for body armor, helmets, and medicine, confirming continued border security operations and logistical needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Dva Mayora" posts a video of a soldier interacting with a device in a forested area, captioned "Black Ferdinand," possibly indicating a new type of ordnance or tactical device. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) "Старше Эдды" posts recruitment material for a Russian special forces/military training center, emphasizing benefits and expertise from "SMO" veterans, indicating ongoing force generation. MoD Russia posts video of servicemen undergoing intensive training. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo provides "Frontline summary for the morning of 03.08.25" maps for Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, Pokrovske, and Sumy directions, indicating RF situational awareness and narrative control. Colonelcassad also posts daily map changes. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - for map accuracy, HIGH - for RF intent to provide aggregated operational information) "Dva Mayora" also reports that transport for security forces will now be free on toll roads. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном posts photos of nature scenes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV posts video claiming "liberation of Temirovka" by an assault company commander, highlighting difficulties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Сливочный каприз" posts photo/video of Seversk-Ivano-Daryevka, indicating RF operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports UA partially undermined industrial infrastructure of "Krasnolimanskaya" mine in DNR, citing advisor to DNR head. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Vovchanski Khutory and Krasne Pershe at South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Kupyansk, Stepova Novoselivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka and Zahryzove at Kupyansk direction, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Karpivka, Hryhorivka, Serebryanka and towards Cherneschyna, Serednye, Shandryholove at Lyman direction, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Novomarkove at Kramatorsk direction, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Oleksandro-Shultyne, Yablunivka, Scherbynivka and towards Ivanopillya and Stepanivka at Toretsk direction, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Poltavka, Popiv Yar, Volodymyrivka, Krasnyy Lyman , Nykanorivka, Kotlyne, Myrolubivka, Novoekonomichne, Sukhetske, Rodynske, Lysivka, Novopavlivka, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Udachne, Zelenyy Kut, Novoukrayinka at Pokrovsk direction, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Maliyivka, Voskresenka, Novopil, Temyrivka, Tolstoy, Myrne, Zelene Pole and towards Filiya at Novopavlivka direction, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Kamyanske at Orikhiv direction, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Antonivka bridge at Kherson direction, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports UA forces repelled 20 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo posts photo captioned "Russian airbases will receive blast-proof shelters," indicating defensive measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Russia's MoD briefed on progress of special military operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Kotsnews posts photo message captioned "Защитные укрытия появятся на всех аэродромах страны" showing satellite imagery of military airbases with what appear to be hardened aircraft shelters or earthworks, suggesting ongoing construction for protection against UAVs.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH)Два майора posts photo message "Острый как бритва, надежный как скала" showing a military knife, which appears to be a morale or recruitment message.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Information Operations: RF channels continue to disseminate claims of successful strikes, project military prowess, and engage in nationalistic propaganda, attempting to redefine "healthy nationalism." Claims of control over Hoptivka checkpoint. RF acknowledges UA drone attacks on RF territory (Voronezh, Sochi, Adler, Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod, Pskov, Bryansk, Leningrad Oblast), attributing them to "enemy attack." Colonelcassad explicitly mentions a large UAV attack on Adler with damage to an oil depot tank and garages, and openly calls for additional FAB strikes on the Kherson bridge to collapse it, and discusses why FAB-3000 didn't collapse it immediately. RF promotes military advances on the Southern-Donetsk direction and deflects from UA activity. RF promotes the narrative of UA withdrawal from Chasiv Yar. RF state media (TASS) covers domestic economic issues (drafting bill on airline fines for non-notification of flights), internal security (Crocus City Hall investigation), and promotes patriotic "folk talents." TASS claims that "more than 10 servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine disappear daily in Yunakovka, Sumy Oblast," which is likely a psychological operation aimed at demoralizing UA forces or justifying future RF cross-border actions. TASS also features a video of a captured UA serviceman discussing recruitment in Cherkasy for "assault units," an attempt to discredit UA mobilization efforts. TASS also claims local residents transferred TCC location in Druzhkivka leading to a strike. Colonelcassad publishes "Chronicle of strikes on Ukrainian territory 02 August - 03 August 2025," an RF-sourced BDA aggregation, intended for internal and external consumption. Alex Parker Returns posts a meme with an elephant and a chair, likely a sarcastic or mocking comment on a perceived blunder, potentially targeting Ukrainian leadership or Western support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS message claims "Lightly wounded AFU soldiers joined assault groups for transfer to Sumy," which is an additional RF narrative on UA force readiness and deployment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Dva Mayora" provides an "Overview Summary for the morning of August 3, 2025," signaling a continued pattern of daily aggregated operational reporting, and posts a graphic of "What Rybar Says." "Два майора" posts video on "Духовная сила одна из важных составляющих бойца," discussing 'Española' unit, 'Russian corsairs,' and 'Motherland Russia', reinforcing patriotic themes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Fighterbomber" posts a generic "Good morning, country!" photo, a typical morale-boosting message often accompanied by military imagery. "Архангел СпецНАЗа" channel similarly posts a "Good morning" message with a photo, indicating broad use of morale-boosting content. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Операция Z" frames the request for thermal imagers as "Front needs help," blending humanitarian aid with military needs, highlighting a potential equipment gap. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Новости Москвы" channel posting about strawberry price increases and Watermelon Day is likely a means of normalising domestic life and disctract from the conflict. News of 31.9% Russians earning over 100,000 rubles before tax is also part of this normalization/positive economic narrative. "Новости Москвы" also reports on cancer vaccine development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Басурин о главном" posting a historical photo with #ДЕНЬвИСТОРИИ is likely historical narrative building, potentially linking to current events. Басурин о главном also posts about a new "Day of the Artist" holiday. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS also posts a video of a captured Ukrainian soldier claiming blocked bank accounts for relatives of deserters, aiming to undermine Ukrainian morale and mobilization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS posts about Russian-Chinese economic cooperation and domestic fraud, indicating a broad narrative. TASS also reports on traffic accidents and fines for keeping wild animals, further normalizing domestic news. Alex Parker Returns also posts about Dagestan's high ЕГЭ scores, promoting positive domestic narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS features military expert Marochko's claims on Serebryanka activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок engages in historical disinformation by claiming "first submarine fleet invented by Zaporizhzhian Cossacks." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z publishes US Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene's statement on US funding for Ukraine, and now another one criticizing US tariffs on Canada, and posts a photo message claiming "ВСУ испытывают острый кризис, фронт может «посыпаться» — военный эксперт Кофман." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Rybar posted a photo message on "Nuclear hysteria of the British on the Armenians" which is assessed as harmful and not suitable for analysis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Операция Z" posts a video with a military-aligned speaker discussing "Russian Empire borders," indicating aggressive territorial narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews posts a call for stories about "heroes of the SMO" for a collection, indicating continued hero-building and propaganda efforts. Kotsnews also posts on "India's defiance and Europe's fawning," likely an IO piece on international relations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a photo message with Ukrainian flag emojis and a caption implying something negative about "stubborn Ukrainians" or "domestic warriors", likely a dismissive or critical RF sentiment towards UA, and also shares video of Shahed strike on Druzhkivka TCC and Kramatorsk market/Aurora store, acknowledging the UA targeting, and posts sarcastic captions with videos of natural phenomena. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad also posts about the "Estonian Maginot Line," an ironic reference to Estonia's border fortifications, likely intended to dismiss them, and posts on the situation in Krasnoarmeysk. Colonelcassad also posts video of a diplomatic event in Pakistan. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника reports that Ukrainian authorities are refusing to accept about 90 of their citizens deported from RF, including POWs and civilian prisoners, framing it negatively for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS posts on Moldovan politics, potentially aiming to highlight perceived instability or Russian influence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС channel shares a video of a captured/dissident RF soldier pleading "Drones are fucking us all up completely... Hundreds of people a day! Why do you need this fucking war, faggots? These DNR, LNR? How can we live with this, tell me V.V. Putin?" This is a significant anti-war, anti-Putin message that UA is amplifying. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts a sarcastic video of a Belarusian military ceremony featuring a watermelon, likely to mock Belarusian forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Moscow City Court cancelled an arrest warrant for Tatiana Lazareva on charges of evading foreign agent duties, indicating domestic legal narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes a video of a soldier talking about "liberation of Temirovka," framed as "Heroes of Special Operation V." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z shares a video titled "Exactly in the bullseye: A Russian soldier, saving his comrades, shot down a Ukrainian drone," emphasizing soldier heroism and counter-UAV capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS claims authorities in Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk are leaving after the "liberation" of Chasiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns posts an emotional video of a Ukrainian civilian, captioned "Everything is bad," which is being amplified by RF to portray Ukrainian suffering and perhaps undermine morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports criminal liability for desecration of military graves is justified due to Western attempts to distort history, citing Vyacheslav Volodin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad posts video of MGIMO Dean stating "If you don't like Stalin's borders, then they will be the borders of the Russian Empire, which are much larger," indicating aggressive expansionist rhetoric. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z posts a photo message claiming "Germano-Dutch corps can be deployed in Estonia," citing ERR, indicating an RF narrative of NATO build-up near its borders. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: TASS posts photo message "Победа России в украинском конфликте неизбежна, Трампу следует прекратить его затягивать, пишет The American Conservative." directly appealing to US political figures and Western audiences.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH)TASS reports that the FSSP plans to restrict weapon licenses for individuals with outstanding court debts, indicating an internal security and governance measure being communicated to the public.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH)Alex Parker Returns posts photo message about a surgeon with a perceived link to "Akhmat" circus, likely a discrediting or satirical piece on internal RF figures.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
UA Forces:
Casualty Reporting: UA General Staff (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦) reports estimated total RF losses from 24.02.22 to 03.08.25, including a daily loss of 920 RF personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for reporting, MEDIUM for exact figures)
Air Defense: Active air defense response to incoming UAVs (Kharkiv, Bryansk - per RF reports, Dnipropetrovsk - 2 drones shot down) and ballistic threats (Kyiv). UA Air Force reporting on Shahed movements across Kharkiv, Dnipropetropvsk, Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts. UA Air Force reports 61 targets shot down/suppressed out of 76 drones and 7 missiles. ASTRA and Operatyvnyi ZSU report similar figures (73/7 for ASTRA, 61/83 for Operatyvnyi ZSU by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). UA Air Force notes activity of enemy reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy Oblast, with possible air defense work. UA Air Force reports a reconnaissance UAV detected northeast of Samar (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) heading towards Kharkiv Oblast, and another east of Snovsk, Chernihiv Oblast, heading southwest, with forces engaged for its destruction. UA Air Force warns of UAVs over Sumy. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues an alert for guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts video of fighter jets in formation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for activity; MEDIUM for exact effectiveness rates due to conflicting numbers) The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posts a video celebrating its 21st anniversary, showcasing fighter jets, military vehicles, radar systems, drone control, and anti-aircraft missile systems, demonstrating capabilities and readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues an alert. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV north of Chernihiv, heading southwest, with assets engaged for destruction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also reports a reconnaissance UAV south of Chernihiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UA Air Force warns of threat of aviation weapon use in Synelnykove district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: STERNENKO posts video captioned "Воїни 1129-го ЗРП знешкодили ще 3 безпілотники!" showing a drone in flight (Phoenix) and indicating successful neutralization of three enemy UAVs by air defense personnel.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Long-Range Strike: Demonstrated capability to conduct widespread UAV strikes across a wide range of Russian territory and the Black Sea (Voronezh, Sochi, Adler, Pskov, potentially Kstovo, Bryansk, Nizhny Novgorod, and Leningrad Oblast), forcing RF air defense responses and leading to airport restrictions. Confirmed fire at a fuel reservoir on a Sochi oil depot with significant fire response, and confirmed by Colonelcassad as a hit on a "fuel barrel." ASTRA provides video of the attack moment. Colonelcassad confirms damage to one tank and garages in Adler. ASTRA video confirms "second hit" at the garage cooperative near the Adler oil depot. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts photos claiming "БПЛА Сил Оборони України уразили дві цистерни з паливом на території паливно-заправного комплексу ТОВ "Базовий АвіаПаливний Оператор"." This indicates sustained and precise UA targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO and Operatyvnyi ZSU channels provide additional video and photo evidence of the Adler oil depot fire, further solidifying the success of the strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України" channel posts a video with the caption "Their fear is our work," showing FPV drone combat footage and successful strikes, indicating active and effective drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO also notes reduced fundraising for "rusorez", indicating public fundraising efforts for military equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports a UAV shot down in Pskov near a military unit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO provides video of a bridge being targeted and destroyed by artillery fire, captioned "Your drones are already destroying bridges in Russia!", indicating UA capabilities against RF infrastructure, though specific bridge is unconfirmed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports a train derailment with spilled fuel in Jewish Autonomous Oblast, potentially linked to UA sabotage. (CONFIDENCE: LOW for confirmed linkage, HIGH for reported event) Оперативний ЗСУ also posts photo messages claiming "ГУР здобуло закриту внутрішню документацію про найновіший підводний човен держави-агресора росії ― атомну субмарину стратегічного призначення К-555 “князь пожарскій” проєкту 955А “борєй-а”." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of drone attack on Sochi oil depot, claiming use of "Lyutyi" drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO posts multiple videos and photo messages showing the acquisition and delivery of 320 drones to UA forces, thanking for constant help. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UA Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video on delivery of military equipment including 2000+ FPV drones, 500 quadcopters, 500 batteries, etc. to Zaporizhzhia front, highlighting a focus on drone warfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts video of Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet using GBU-62 aerial bombs on enemy assault groups, indicating effective air support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Ground Forces: Engaged in close-quarters combat on the Pokrovsk direction and other Eastern sectors, including Vovchansk. Special Operations Forces (GUR) actively engaged. Development of improvised "IED" FPV motorcycles. Engaged in attacks in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, according to RF sources. RF sources claim UA 4th Tank Brigade re-formed into heavy mechanized brigade. UA soldier "Chaika" from 4th National Guard Brigade "Rubizh" reports on close encounter with FPV drone on Pokrovsk direction, indicating active FPV drone combat. TASS reports UA forces strengthening grouping near Serebryanka and attempting to dislodge RF. TASS reports Ukrainian forces in Konstantinovka are forming focal defenses and attempting to strengthen flanks by transferring reserve forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS message claims "Lightly wounded AFU soldiers joined assault groups for transfer to Sumy." This suggests UA force deployments and adaptations. (CONFIDENCE: LOW for factual accuracy, HIGH for RF narrative intent). Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms Zelensky's dismissal of Serhiy Haidai from Mukachevo RDC and Yurchenko from Rubizhne MVA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Сили оборони Півдня України" (Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine) posts photo messages with caption "⚡️⚡️ Українські підрозділи продовжують завдавати суттєвих втрат ворогу," indicating continued successful engagements against the enemy, and also posts photos celebrating Air Force Day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС channel posts new video showing drone footage of military operations against RF assault groups in Donetsk Oblast, attributed to the 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС also posts video of "duel with the occupier: FPV vs small arms fire" showing successful drone strikes on enemy infantry, truck, motorcycle, and mortar/artillery piece. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claims "Vostok" group is forming a security zone in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with reactive artillery and UAVs destroying enemy positions near Yanvarsky and Velikykhailivka, providing multiple videos, which UA forces are actively resisting. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) РБК-Україна reports "Rubizh" NGU brigade is fundraising for destroyed property and equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO's video of a burning truck on the Konstantinovka direction, captioned "На Костянтинівському напрямку окупантам ДУЖЕ сподобалась робота ваших дронів. Просять ще." showing drone footage of a military truck on fire, indicating active drone combat in the Konstantinovka direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video of a person in camouflage being observed by a drone. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС channel amplifies a video of a captured/dissident RF soldier pleading against the war, indicating UA's use of psychological operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday in multiple directions, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a series of photo messages captioned "В Україні ліквідовано канібала. Денис Горін — вбивця та людожер із Сахаліну. В 2013 році він був засуджений на 22 роки колонії за вбивства чотирьох людей. У двох випадках він поїдав тіла своїх жертв. В 2023 році Путін помилував людожера і відправив його на «сво»." identifying a liquidated RF convict who was deployed to Ukraine, suggesting UA's success in targeting RF personnel, including those from penal battalions.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH)ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video titled "Взвод «ГРОЗА» роти безпілотних комплексів «Легіону Свобода Росії» розвіяв міф про те, що плащі-невидимки окупаційної армії роблять окупантів непомітними." showing thermal drone footage of what appear to be RF military personnel attempting to use "invisible cloaks" but being detected and targeted, potentially showing operations by the "Freedom of Russia Legion" against RF forces and demonstrating UA/proxy ISR capabilities.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Infrastructure Response: UA authorities are actively responding to air threats and managing infrastructure damage and civilian evacuations (Kherson, Mykolaiv, Chuhuiv, Kharkiv, Balakliia). Oleg Synegubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, confirms widespread damage in Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Air Assault Forces of Ukraine" channel posts a photo message "Sincerely congratulate our combat brothers and sisters on the Day of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine!" This is a morale-boosting message during active operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Serhiy Lysak, Head of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast State Administration, and Zelenskiy / Official, both post videos celebrating Air Force Day, reinforcing morale and public support for the Air Force. Олександр Вілкул also posts photo message celebrating Air Force Day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration and Kyiv City Military Administration also post "minute of silence" messages and celebrate Air Force Day. DeepState also posts photos celebrating Air Force Day. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts photos celebrating Air Force Day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU share video messages celebrating Ukrainian Air Force Day, including President Zelensky's address. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War also posted a video celebrating Air Force Day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports a technical glitch in "Diia" app. Fedorov advises "Diia" users to update the application. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports 5 injured in Voronezh, 4 injured in Mykolaiv from missile attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports 5 residents arrested in Vinnytsia after TCC protest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine posts about agricultural prognosis "Worse than last year" – interview with an agrarian, indicating awareness of internal economic issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of aftermath of X-22 strike on Mykolaiv, and video of the Kherson strike aftermath, and posts on the air defense success rate. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of natural weather event destroying a beach and bridge in Krasnodar Krai, likely highlighting RF infrastructure vulnerabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Оперативний ЗСУ posts "“Любов до неба” — нова пісня про мужність українських пілотів! До Дня Повітряних сил платформа Культурні сили та бойовий музикант Олександр Ремез випустили пісню-присвяту сталевим хижакам українського неба." promoting a new song for Air Force Day, aimed at boosting morale.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Control Measures:
Ukraine: UA authorities are actively responding to air threats, managing infrastructure damage, and initiating civilian evacuations (Kherson, Mykolaiv). Dissemination of information regarding deep strikes into RF territory suggests deliberate psychological operations. Implementation of air alerts in Kyiv and other oblasts. UA Air Force is actively tracking and reporting on Shahed movements. RBC-Ukraine reports restricted transport movement over the bridge in Korabelny district due to repeated attacks and UAV activity. Оперативний ЗСУ posts message "Help and support for brothers-in-arms," indicating continued calls for public support or direct aid to soldiers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Air Assault Forces of Ukraine" channel posts a photo message celebrating Ukrainian Air Force Day, indicating coordinated public messaging and morale-boosting efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports casualties from attacks, indicating ongoing damage assessment and reporting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Personnel changes in Mukachevo and Rubizhne indicate internal administrative control measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kyiv City Military Administration, Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, and Operatyvnyi ZSU all participate in "minute of silence" public messaging and Air Force Day celebrations. DeepState also celebrates Air Force Day. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 celebrates Air Force Day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine are actively reporting on enemy losses and celebrating Air Force Day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) DeepState is updating its map. Оперативний ЗСУ also posts DeepState map showing occupation dynamics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Arrests in Vinnytsia related to TCC protest indicate internal security control measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Updates to "Diia" app indicate efforts to maintain civilian services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Oleg Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, issues weather warnings. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues alerts for aerial bombs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UA Air Force alerts for aviation weapon use in Synelnykove district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV north of Chernihiv, heading southwest. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also reports a reconnaissance UAV south of Chernihiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration confirms air raid alert lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UA Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video highlighting efforts to make Zaporizhzhia a reliable rear for the army, including significant drone procurement and local production of defense components. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Zelenskiy / Official posts photo message captioned "Обговорили з секретарем РНБО України Рустемом Умєровим та керівником Офісу Андрієм Єрмаком переговорний трек, а саме виконання домовленостей зустрічей з російською стороною в Стамбулі та підготовку нової зустрічі," indicating high-level strategic discussions on peace negotiations and control over diplomatic efforts.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Russia: Issuance of air alerts in numerous oblasts (Voronezh, Sochi, Pskov, Bryansk, Nizhny Novgorod, and Leningrad Oblast) and claims of mass UAV destruction by MoD and Governor suggests reactive control measures to UA deep strikes, including temporary airport restrictions (Sochi, Pskov - Pulkovo) and passenger evacuation. Active reporting on artillery effectiveness. Coordinated air defense response and reporting for Sochi/Adler. Large-scale fire response to Adler oil depot confirmed by RF. Voronezh governor has lifted the "yellow level" threat (Igor Artamonov), indicating a perceived return to stability after drone attacks. TASS reports a truck driver near Tula was fined for refusing police inspection due to possible drone transport, indicating strict internal security measures against UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Dva Mayora" reports Russian forces receiving new "Pantsir-SMD" air defense systems, indicating efforts to bolster air defense capabilities. "Dva Mayora" also reports free passage for security forces on toll roads, a control measure facilitating military movement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for reporting, MEDIUM for actual widespread deployment). The legislative proposal for fines on airlines (TASS) indicates a governmental response to the disruption caused by drone attacks on airports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that over 25 flights are delayed from Sochi airport. TASS also reports on a proposed online service for apartment rentals with document verification, indicating an effort to normalize domestic life and perhaps address internal security concerns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Temporary restrictions at Pulkovo Airport (St. Petersburg) have been fully lifted, per TASS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo's daily summary maps indicate centralized control over operational reporting and narrative. Colonelcassad also posts daily map changes and updates on Krasnoarmeysk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports on fines for keeping wild animals, a domestic control measure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника reports Ukraine refusing to accept deported citizens, a narrative control measure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном posts on a new "Day of the Artist" holiday. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS posts on Moldovan politics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports three (3) Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Leningrad Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Moscow City Court decision on Lazareva case, a domestic legal control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports a fire in a garage complex in Yekaterinburg, implying civilian emergency response. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA posts video of civilians sheltering during UAV attack in Adler, showing public response to control measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS claims authorities in Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk are leaving after the "liberation" of Chasiv Yar, a narrative control measure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports criminal liability for desecration of military graves. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo posts on blast-proof shelters for Russian airbases, indicating a response to Ukrainian drone attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Russia's MoD briefed on progress of special military operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: TASS reports that FSSP plans to restrict weapon licenses for individuals with outstanding court debts, indicating an internal security measure.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
UAVs/Missiles: RF maintains a robust and adaptable UAV program (Shaheds, Geran-2, "Molniya" kamikaze drones, and now claims "new series Gerbera 3 Shaheds") and continues to employ high-speed missiles (Kh-22, FAB-500 glide bombs) and ballistic missiles. RF also demonstrates a capability to detect and interdict a significant number of incoming UA UAVs (claims 93 overall), though UA strikes on Voronezh, Sochi, Adler (confirmed oil depot fire and "second hit" on garages, and photos from КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno), Pskov (confirmed UAV shot down near military unit, airport restrictions), Nizhny Novgorod, and Leningrad Oblast (TASS reports 3 UAVs destroyed) indicate continued vulnerability. New UAV axes via Sumy Oblast into Poltava/Cherkasy, northern Chernihiv Oblast now into Kyiv Oblast, and newly observed activity in Zhytomyr/Khmelnytskyi Oblasts. RF air assets are now explicitly targeting damaged Ukrainian infrastructure, notably the Kherson bridge, with the stated intent of collapsing it via additional FAB strikes. Fighterbomber's video confirms successful hits on a bridge. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and STERNENKO confirm new RF aviation attacks on Kherson, specifically targeting the bridge area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF reconnaissance UAV is reported heading from Dnipropetrovsk towards Kharkiv and from Chernihiv Oblast (newly confirmed UAV north of Chernihiv). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also reports a reconnaissance UAV south of Chernihiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV claims a "FAB 3000" strike on a UA temporary deployment point in Novoselivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and TASS claims a FAB-3000 strike on a UA command post in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Alex Parker Returns also posts video of a "three-ton cast iron" (FAB-3000) strike in Dnipropetropvsk Oblast, indicating a continued capability for heavy, deep strikes. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Colonelcassad reports a thermal anomaly at the Synelnykove Traction Substation, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, likely from a strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Bilohirya, Novoandriyivka, Hryhorivka, Richne, Veselyanka of Zaporizhzhia region, Kherson and Lvove of Kherson region, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Artillery & SOF/FPV: RF continues to employ conventional artillery for suppressive fires and targeting of UA tactical positions. RF Spetsnaz units (14th Guards) are actively engaged in localized precision strikes, with a notable shift towards drone-centric tactics. Emerging RF FPV drone brigades are claiming significant tactical control, with "Воин DV" showcasing claimed destruction of UA vehicles. Colonelcassad posts video showing alleged downing of a UA FPV drone by small arms fire during a patrol. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition provides multiple videos claiming effective reactive artillery and UAV strikes by "Vostok" group in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. TASS reports improved tank effectiveness due to drone observation in Donetsk. Военкор Котенок posts video claiming "Вынос двух украинских РЛС." Воин DV posts video claiming destruction of a UA armored vehicle by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade on the South-Donetsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Сливочный каприз" (RF source) posts photo and video messages on Seversk-Ivano-Daryevka direction, showing combined aerial imagery, ground footage, and map overlay, indicating ongoing military operations in the area, with explosions and Russian insignia present. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Ground Offensive: RF is capable of mounting large-scale ground assaults (Avdiivka/Pokrovsk direction, Vovchansk), utilizing extensive air and artillery preparation. Deployment of VDV elements near Verbove indicates commitment of high-value units. RF claims consolidation in Temirovka. RF 29th Army Group "Vostok" claims advance towards Iskra. RF sources claim UA forces pulled from Chasiv Yar to Konstantinovka. TASS military expert Marochko reports Kyiv has strengthened its grouping near Serebryanka in DNR and is attempting to dislodge RF Armed Forces. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claims "Vostok" group is forming a security zone in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with reactive artillery and UAVs destroying enemy positions near Yanvarsky and Velikykhailivka, providing multiple videos. Colonelcassad claims penetration of RF DRGs into southern Krasnoarmeysk and advancement near Sukhetsky and Rodinsky, threatening operational encirclement of UA forces. TASS reports Ukrainian forces in Konstantinovka are forming focal defenses and attempting to strengthen flanks by transferring reserve forces. Операция Z reports Commander-in-Chief Syrsky claims "total infiltration" of RF forces, putting Pokrovsk in danger. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for activity; MEDIUM for effectiveness claims; LOW for Chasiv Yar claim; HIGH for Serebryanka claim; MEDIUM for Krasnoarmeysk claim; HIGH for Syrsky's acknowledgement) "Dva Mayora" reports Russian forces receiving new "Pantsir-SMD" air defense systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for reporting, MEDIUM for actual widespread deployment). "Дневник Десантника" posts a map of the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating sustained ground operational awareness, and aerial footage of explosions in wooded areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's video shows Bryansk border guards and reconnaissance units from the Kherson direction soliciting donations, confirming active border security and reconnaissance capabilities, but also equipment needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Dva Mayora" posts a video of a soldier with a device, "Black Ferdinand", indicating a potential new tactical device or ordnance. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) "Старше Эдды" recruitment video and MoD Russia training video confirm RF capacity for force generation and training. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo's daily summary maps indicate RF capacity to provide aggregated operational information and maintain narrative control. Colonelcassad also posts daily map changes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Dva Mayora" also reports that transport for security forces will now be free on toll roads. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV posts video claiming "liberation of Temirovka" by an assault company commander, highlighting difficulties, confirming continued ground operations and consolidation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS claims authorities in Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk are leaving after the "liberation" of Chasiv Yar, indicating a narrative of success. (CONFIDENCE: LOW for factual accuracy) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday in multiple directions, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports UA forces repelled 20 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, citing UA General Staff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Deep Strike Resilience: RF territories remain vulnerable to Ukrainian long-range strikes/UAVs, necessitating air alerts across numerous oblasts, including newly reported Leningrad Oblast, resulting in visible damage and airport closures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The train derailment in Jewish Autonomous Oblast, while unconfirmed as combat-related, highlights a vulnerability in RF transport infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo posts on blast-proof shelters for Russian airbases, indicating an adaptation to counter UA deep strikes. Kotsnews also posts on "Защитные укрытия появятся на всех аэродромах страны". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Information Warfare: RF media continues to produce and disseminate sophisticated pro-military and anti-Ukrainian narratives, including glorification of forces, claims of successful targeting, re-defining "nationalism," and unsubstantiated claims of territorial control and UA withdrawals. They also highlight perceived external threats and showcase foreign military technology. RF narratives also include detailed information on domestic security matters (e.g., airline fines, Crocus City Hall investigation, fraud, fines for keeping wild animals) and broader non-military domestic issues (e.g., strawberry prices in Moscow, historical photo messages, apartment rental service, Watermelon Day, high exam scores in Dagestan, cancer vaccine development). Recent claims of UA daily losses in Yunakovka and videos of captured UA servicemen discussing recruitment tactics and blocked bank accounts for deserters' relatives are part of this broader IO effort. Colonelcassad publishes "Chronicle of strikes on Ukrainian territory 02 August - 03 August 2025" for RF-sourced BDA aggregation, intended to shape narrative. Alex Parker Returns posts a meme with an elephant and a chair, likely a sarcastic or mocking comment on a perceived blunder, potentially targeting Ukrainian leadership or Western support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS message claims "Lightly wounded AFU soldiers joined assault groups for transfer to Sumy," which is an additional RF narrative on UA force readiness and deployment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Operatsiya Z" requesting thermal imagers while framing it as "front needs help" is a strategic information operation to garner support and indicate operational needs without directly admitting shortcomings. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The TASS report about locals providing TCC location in Druzhkivka is an attempt to foster collaboration and justify strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The historical disinformation about Zaporizhzhian Cossacks inventing the first submarine fleet (Военкор Котенок) is also part of this broader IO. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF also amplifies internal US political divisions regarding aid to Ukraine (Операция Z / Marjorie Taylor Greene), and now US/Canada trade disputes, and claims of UA crisis from expert Kofman. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Rybar posted a photo message on "Nuclear hysteria of the British on the Armenians" which is assessed as harmful and not suitable for analysis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Операция Z" video with speaker discussing "Russian Empire borders" indicates a capability for aggressive, irredentist historical narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews promotes hero-building through collection of "SMO" stories and discusses "India's defiance and Europe's fawning." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a photo message with Ukrainian flag emojis and a caption implying something negative about "stubborn Ukrainians" or "domestic warriors", likely a dismissive or critical RF sentiment towards UA, and also shares video of Shahed strike on Druzhkivka TCC and Kramatorsk, and sarcastic comments on natural phenomena. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's "Estonian Maginot Line" post is dismissive. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника reports Ukraine refusing to accept deported citizens, framing it negatively for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS posts on Moldovan politics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Moscow City Court decision on Lazareva case, part of domestic legal narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports a fire in a garage complex in Yekaterinburg, used to distract from military events. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z publishes a video titled "Exactly in the bullseye: A Russian soldier, saving his comrades, shot down a Ukrainian drone," part of hero-building narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns posts an emotional video of a Ukrainian civilian, captioned "Everything is bad," which is being amplified by RF to portray Ukrainian suffering and perhaps undermine morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports criminal liability for desecration of military graves is justified due to Western attempts to distort history, citing Vyacheslav Volodin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad posts video of MGIMO Dean stating "If you don't like Stalin's borders, then they will be the borders of the Russian Empire, which are much larger," indicating aggressive expansionist rhetoric. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z posts a photo message claiming "Germano-Dutch corps can be deployed in Estonia," citing ERR, indicating an RF narrative of NATO build-up near its borders. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) **NEW INTEL: TASS posts photo message appealing to Trump to stop "dragging out" the conflict, confirming direct messaging to international political figures. Alex Parker Returns posts photo
