Ukraine General: Nationwide missile and UAV threat from RF persists. RF launched 72 drones overnight, with UA Air Force and Operatyvnyi ZSU reporting 44 enemy targets shot down/suppressed, indicating a 61% intercept rate. Zelenskyy reports that in July alone, RF applied over 5100 KABs, more than 3800 Shaheds, and almost 260 missiles of various types, including 128 ballistic missiles, demonstrating continued high-intensity aerial bombardment. Pentagon signed a contract for missile and associated equipment supply to Ukraine and allies until 2031, worth $3.5 billion, specifically mentioning AMRAAM missiles for F-16s. Germany announced the transfer of two Patriot systems to Ukraine after reaching an agreement with the US for new systems. UA Air Force reports 6262 air targets destroyed in July, including 152 cruise missiles, 8 ballistic missiles, 376 Shaheds, and 5726 other UAVs. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that 29,000 drones were launched by Russians in seven months of 2025 (11 times more than in 2024), along with 951 missiles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Kyiv Oblast: RF conducted a high-volume Shahed UAV attack. Confirmed fatalities have increased to 31, including five children, with 159 injured and 10 missing. Emergency services have completed search and rescue operations. Operatyvnyi ZSU shares video of a large industrial fire at night in Bila Tserkva, confirming a significant RF strike on an industrial target, specifically a furniture enterprise. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that among the victims of the RF attack on Kyiv were a lyceum teacher, her two sons, and brother, highlighting severe civilian impact. Israel has condemned the bloody Russian strikes on Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Poltava Oblast: Threat of enemy strike UAVs from the northeast persists. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Kharkiv Oblast: КАBs inbound, new reports of KABs on northern Kharkiv Oblast. RF conducted missile strike on a suburb of Kharkiv (Vasyshcheve), resulting in fires and casualties. Oleg Synyehubov confirms August 1st as a day of mourning in Kharkiv Oblast for Kyiv fatalities. UA intelligence confirms a three-tiered defensive line is being constructed from Kharkiv to Zaporizhzhia to halt the RF summer offensive. Colonelcassad reports a video claiming a TCC (Territorial Recruitment Center) vehicle in Kharkiv hit a cyclist at full speed during a mobilization attempt, indicating potential civil tension related to conscription. RF aviation is active, with threat of aerial munitions. Clashes reported near Vovchansk, Dvorichanske, and Kolodyazne in the South Slobozhansky direction. Clashes also near Kupyansk and Petropavlivka. Alex Parker Returns claims "Правый берег Волчанска освобожден" (Right bank of Vovchansk liberated), indicating RF advances there. Colonelcassad shares photos and captions of the construction of Ukrainian defensive fortifications in the rear, including trenches, dragon's teeth, and barbed wire. Oleg Synyehubov shares photos of aid provided to soldiers defending Kharkiv Oblast, including drones. New information indicates a threat of enemy strike UAVs from the north of Kharkiv Oblast. TASS claims to publish footage of "cleansing" the right bank of Vovchansk, supporting Alex Parker Returns' claim of RF advances in the area.New KAB inbound to eastern Kharkiv Oblast reported.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UA General Staff reports confirm ongoing clashes in multiple Kharkiv sectors, including Vovchansk, contradicting RF claim of "liberation" which is likely propaganda. RF aviation activity is confirmed. TCC incident confidence remains MEDIUM. Construction of fortifications is a confirmed fact. Colonelcassad's latest video repeats the claim of RF advances on the left bank of Vovchansk by the 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 44th Army Corps, aiming to liberate the "remaining new part of the city.")
Donetsk (Pokrovsk Axis): RF forces are most actively advancing. TASS reports from RF силовые структуры claim the distance between RF Armed Forces and Konstantinovka on some front sections is just over a kilometer, and that RF troops have taken Ukrainian grouping in Konstantinovka under dense fire control. Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns share videos claiming destruction of a bridge near Konstantinovka, indicating RF efforts to disrupt UA logistics for defensive operations. НгП раZVедка (RF milblogger) has provided new photo messages confirming the destruction of a bridge in Konstantinovka. This indicates continued, aggressive RF pressure towards Konstantinovka and efforts to isolate the area. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares new drone footage of Pokrovsk showing widespread destruction. UA reports ongoing heavy combat. New RF video footage (Операция Z) shows strikes on targets near Pokrovsk, including a 'Humvee' and structures, with indications of burning vehicles, reinforcing claims of heavy fighting and targeting of UA assets. Воин DV shares a video "Chronology of changes in the LBS (Line of Battle Contact) and liberation of territory by the "Vostok" grouping in the South-Donetsk direction from July 1 to July 31, 2025," claiming over 190 km² and 9 settlements "liberated," including Толстой, Поддубное, Карла Маркса, Малиновка, Новохатское, Воскресенск, Зеленый Гай, and Темировка, and showing airstrikes on Kamyshevakha and destruction of a bridge and Ukrainian AT vehicles. This video serves as RF propaganda for claimed gains. Colonelcassad shares video of Rodinskoye, near Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk, noting it is "still under AFU occupation, but the front is close," confirming RF proximity. UA General Staff reports ongoing clashes near Poltavka, Mayak, Razine, Novoekonomichne, Myrolubivka, Lysivka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Muravka, Novoukrayinka, and towards Volodymyrivka, Pokrovsk, Rodynske, Myrnohrad, Novopidhornye. RF UAVs detected. Операция Z claims RF drones destroyed AFU warehouses and UAV equipment near Mirnograd. Colonelcassad reports that Russian assault groups have infiltrated the outskirts of Sukhetsky, near Rodinskoye. Военкор Котенок also reports this movement towards Sukhetsky. Военкор Котенок reports the distance from RF forward positions to the city limits of Konstantinovka is "just over a kilometer in several sections," further emphasizing the close proximity. Два майора shares video from "Konstantinovka direction," which is a channel logo but indicates focus on this area. Два майора shares photos showing a soldier with multiple portable generators near the front in the South Donetsk direction, indicating ongoing logistical support for offensive operations. A new video from Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shows thermal imaging drone footage of vehicles moving in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, indicating RF reconnaissance or target acquisition, with overlays like 'Paratrooper's Diary' and 'Fascist Enemy'. Another video from Оперативний ЗСУ shows a damaged road with destroyed military vehicles, including a burned-out truck and pickup, and smoke, near Pokrovsk, indicating recent heavy fighting and significant damage to UA assets/infrastructure. A video from Kotsnews shows drone footage of an explosion hitting a military convoy (HMMWV) on a dirt road, causing smoke and fire, near Pokrovsk, confirming direct combat engagement. MoD Russia releases new drone footage showing "Artillerymen hit an ammunition depot and enemy firing points in South Donetsk direction," indicating continued strikes and focus on logistics. Colonelcassad shares drone footage of a 'Baba Yaga' drone, likely engaged in reconnaissance and potential strike missions against military vehicles and infrastructure in Donbas, with visible explosions. New KAB inbound to Donetsk Oblast reported. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares new video footage of a destroyed vehicle engulfed in flames on a dirt road, with two individuals in military attire walking away, and another video showing a soldier walking near a burning truck in a conflict zone. Both videos likely depict the aftermath of military engagements in the area. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Russians have advanced in Donetsk Oblast, specifically in Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Zelene Hay, and near Oleksiivka and Andriyivka-Klevtseve, citing DeepState.Операция Z shares new video footage of a "road of death" between Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, showing destroyed AFU equipment including pickup trucks and other burnt vehicles on a road near a damaged overpass/bridge, with smoke plumes in the distance, indicating heavy fighting and significant UA losses.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF claim of accelerated retreat is unverified but indicates strong RF pressure. RF claim regarding Konstantinovka is unverified but indicates primary RF objective. Bridge destruction confirmed by multiple RF sources, including new visual evidence from НгП раZVедка and Военкор Котенок, indicating direct targeting of UA logistics. New RF video confirms active targeting near Pokrovsk. Воин DV video confirms RF claims of territorial gains, though verification is ongoing. UA General Staff reports confirm extensive clashes in Pokrovsk direction. RF Mirnograd claim requires verification. Reports of RF infiltration into Sukhetsky are consistent with ongoing Pokrovsk axis pressure. Latest RF reporting reinforces Konstantinovka as a key objective. Presence of generators indicates sustainment. The video from Воин DV claims destruction of an M198 howitzer in Ternove (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), linked to the 305th Artillery Brigade of Vostok Group. New video from Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 further confirms destruction of vehicles near Pokrovsk. DeepState (via ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) reports confirm RF advances in Donetsk Oblast in multiple directions. New Operatsiya Z video provides strong visual evidence of destroyed UA equipment near Pokrovsk/Mirnograd, corroborating heavy fighting in the area.)
Chasiv Yar Direction: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides new video footage from pilots of the 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade using FPV drones on fiber optics to destroy enemy logistics, equipment, and personnel in Chasiv Yar, reinforcing claims of continued fierce combat and denying full RF control. The previous report noted a large Russian assault group repelled with heavy casualties. UA General Staff reports clashes near Stupochky, Bila Hora, Chasiv Yar. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports captured RF soldier who stated "We are Russians, we surrender! Drop water, we have no strength. Just don't poison us, please," indicating possible surrender attempts or low morale. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a captured Russian soldier surrendering to a Ukrainian drone, with the soldier stating "We are Russians, we surrender! Drop water, we have no strength. Just don't poison us, please!" TASS reports Putin stated Ukrainian leadership is "not very informed" if they deny the capture of Chasiv Yar by RF forces, indicating continued RF efforts to assert control and deny UA reports. ASTRA shares a video of Lukashenka and Putin discussing the conflict, with Lukashenka stating, "Through a month, a month and a half, two, the Russians will capture everything," and mentioning "Kramatorsk" and Ukrainian armed forces. This is a significant RF propaganda claim of impending, rapid RF territorial gains. Colonelcassad shared a photo message "To the conversation about the capture of Chasiv Yar," suggesting continued RF focus and propaganda around the area. Colonelcassad shares new video footage from Chasiv Yar, with the caption "Высота Часова Яра. Теперь у нас преимущество" (Height of Chasiv Yar. Now we have the advantage), claiming RF forces have secured a dominant position in the area. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Russians have advanced in Donetsk Oblast, specifically in Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Zelene Hay, and near Oleksiivka and Andriyivka-Klevtseve, citing DeepState.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New UA video evidence directly contradicts RF "liberation" claims, and RF counter-propaganda confirms the contested nature of the area. UA General Staff confirms continued clashes. RF POW message is significant and reinforced by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS. Latest RF commentary from Putin and Lukashenka indicates continued information warfare regarding Chasiv Yar and broader territorial ambitions. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides a video of a soldier claiming to have returned from Ukrainian captivity and then being sent to the front in Donetsk, indicating RF efforts to force former POWs back into combat. Colonelcassad's new video is an RF claim of tactical advantage in Chasiv Yar, unverified by UA. DeepState (via ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) reports confirm RF advances in Chasiv Yar.)
Siversk Direction: 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade (10th OGShBr) successfully repelled an enemy assault, destroying 13 motorcycles. Ongoing clashes near Hryhorivka, Serebryanka, Vyyimka, Zvanivka and Fedorivka. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a local resident near Siversk was killed attempting to recover an RF "ждун" (waiting) drone, which was remotely detonated by RF operators. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides video of this incident. Colonelcassad also shares a photo message about Siversk, indicating continued focus on the area. UA General Staff reports clashes near Hryhorivka and Vyyimka. Colonelcassad reports a Russian soldier blew up a Ukrainian strongpoint with a TM-62M anti-tank mine near Siversk. Военкор Котенок provides a map screenshot indicating continued activity in the Siversk direction.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade's drone units eliminating RF artillery, communication nodes, and transport, particularly showing mortar positions being targeted, which could be in the Siversk direction given its high combat intensity.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Civilian casualty from booby-trapped drone is a new confirmed tactic. UA General Staff confirms continued clashes. Рыбарь provides a photo message indicating focus on the Siversk area. New Военкор Котенок map and БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video confirm continued RF/UA activity.)
Sumy Oblast: Russians continue assaulting with small infantry groups. Enemy UAVs detected. KAB launches on Sumy Oblast confirmed by Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Air Force of Ukraine (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and РБК-Україна issue warnings for strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Sumy, and an update confirms power outages due to two enemy UAV strikes on civilian infrastructure. UA General Staff reports Ukrainian forces repelled 16 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. SBU reportedly detained an RF spy on a bicycle preparing for a DRG breakthrough. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs detected on the west of Sumy Oblast. New KAB inbound to Sumy Oblast reported. РБК-Україна reports RF attacked the railway station in Sumy, damaging a train with people on board. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms the Sumy railway station attack by two UAVs, damaging windows on train No. 45 (Kharkiv-Uzhhorod).(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New information confirms direct RF strike on civilian infrastructure, specifically the railway station and a passenger train.)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Север.Реалии reports one fatality after a Russian strike on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This is in addition to previously reported casualties. MoD Russia shares new Supercam S350 UAV footage claiming detection of an AFU drone launch position on the right bank of the Dnepr River in Kherson region and subsequent targeting, indicating RF continued ISR and strike capabilities. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 released photo message on SafeWomenHUB, platform for women affected by war, and also on civilian skills training. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues an air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia and the region. Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast lifted. RF aviation conducted airstrikes near Bilohirya, Veselyanka, Hryhorivka, Stepnohirsk. UA General Staff reports clashes near Kamyanske and Mali Scherbaky in the Orikhiv direction. RF UAVs detected. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares photos showing a damaged or destroyed VDV/Russian vehicle in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, possibly indicating a recent engagement. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photo message of a job fair for the Pension Fund, indicating continued civilian services. Ballistic missile threat from the south reported for Zaporizhzhia. A domestic incident involving an elderly woman setting her cohabitant on fire is reported by Mash на Донбассе in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating social issues in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Сили оборони Півдня України provides a video of UA operations in Zaporizhzhia, showing a military map with troop movements and drone footage with thermal imaging, indicating active defense against enemy positions. The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration shared photo messages highlighting their "ELITE UFUTURE" program for schoolchildren, which, while civilian-focused, implies continued efforts to develop human capital despite the conflict. New report from Mash на Донбассе is a social issue in occupied territory.)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Sinelnikove District): РБК-Україна reports children were trapped under rubble after an RF strike on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. ASTRA reports three children extracted from under rubble of a private house and hospitalized. Enemy attacked Nikopolshchyna with FPV drones and artillery. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also reports KABs inbound to Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs detected on the east and south of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Mykolaivshchyna. Mash на Донбассе shares video of a collapsed school in Makeevka, stating teachers confirmed no major repairs were done on that section. While Makeevka is in Donetsk, not Dnipropetrovsk, this report indicates broader infrastructure damage in occupied territories. TASS claims RF forces destroyed part of an elite Ukrainian airborne assault regiment "Skala" transferred to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New KAB inbound to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reported. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports RF attacked Nikopolshchyna with FPV drones and artillery, targeting Nikopol, Myrivska, Pokrovska, and Marhanetska communities. This is confirmed by multiple photo messages showing damaged buildings.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - TASS claim unverified by UA, likely propaganda, but indicates RF activity in the area. Воин DV claims destruction of an M198 howitzer in Ternove (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), adding to the reported RF strikes in the region. New reports from Dnipropetrovska ODA confirm ongoing RF strikes with drones and artillery.)
Kherson Oblast (Occupied): TASS and ASTRA report 6 people injured in an alleged Ukrainian drone attack on commercial pavilions in Velyki Kopani, Kherson Oblast, as reported by Saldo (occupied authorities). Mash на Донбассе and Басурин о главном also share videos of the fire. Ukrainian engineering troops cleared nearly 3,000 hectares of mines. Два майора shares new video and photo messages from "Governor of Kherson Oblast" showing a large commercial building engulfed in thick smoke and flames, indicating a significant fire incident, likely from Ukrainian shelling or a domestic incident in occupied territory. MoD Russia shares new Supercam S350 UAV footage claiming detection of an AFU drone launch position on the right bank of the Dnepr River in Kherson region and subsequent targeting, indicating RF continued ISR and strike capabilities. RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Novotyahynka. Операция Z propagates narrative of "panic" in Kherson, claiming RF aerial superiority and UA helplessness. UA General Staff reports Ukrainian forces repelled 1 Russian army assault in the Kherson direction. TASS reports Saldo claiming RF forces struck a base in Ochakov where Ukrainian forces were preparing for a landing on Tendrovskaya and Kinburnskaya spits. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares video from Sevastopol of a woman reacting with alarm to a bright light/distant explosion, which may indicate perceived or actual military activity in Crimea. New video from Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shows a first-person view from a car driving through a rural landscape with fields and trees, labeled "Kherson Oblast," but without military activity visible. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Claims of UA drone attack on Velyki Kopani are from RF sources, unverified by UA, but fire/casualties are confirmed by multiple RF sources. RF propaganda on Kherson panic is likely false. UA General Staff reports confirm continued RF assaults and UA repulsion. RF strike on Ochakov base is an RF claim, unverified by UA. The Sevastopol video is a general observation of possible distant military activity.)
Kirovohrad Oblast: Threat of enemy strike UAVs from south. Shahed UAVs reported heading north-northeast. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the cessation of illegal sand extraction operations in Kirovohrad Oblast, resulting in 53 million UAH in losses and implicating a regional council deputy from the banned "OPZZh" party. While not directly military, this indicates internal law enforcement action. Офіс Генерального прокурора also reports on exposing a scheme of illegal registration of state land as communal land, with two officials notified of suspicion. Офіс Генерального прокурора provides photo messages and a caption detailing a series of facts regarding embezzlement of budget funds and abuse of power in Kirovohrad Oblast, with over 100 million UAH in damages and 22 officials notified of suspicion. This reinforces the previous report on corruption in the region.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New information from Офіс Генерального прокурора further confirms internal corruption issues in Kirovohrad Oblast, not directly military but indicative of broader governance challenges.)
Western Ukraine: Air raid alert due to strike UAVs gradually spreading. Shaheds reported moving towards / through Zhytomyr Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Kryvyi Rih: Situation controlled. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports that a charitable fund head in Kryvyi Rih has been notified of suspicion for offering "disability" for $17,000 to allow exit abroad, indicating internal corruption related to conscription avoidance. Oleksandr Vilkul shares a photo message implying successful action against a "childhood dream" turning into a "great victory," likely referring to local military achievements or community efforts. New photo messages from Олександр Вілкул show a trolleybus with a diesel generator on a public transport line, indicating efforts to maintain civilian services despite power disruptions. Олександр Вілкул provides a briefing summary for August 1, 2025, confirming ongoing local governance and defense council activities. He also reports that three trams and three trolleybuses are being extensively upgraded in 2025, with 95% new components, and plans for replacing 1,087 linear meters of tram rails and 14 km of contact networks, indicating efforts to maintain and improve urban infrastructure.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New information from Oleksandr Vilkul confirms continued efforts to maintain civilian infrastructure and governance in Kryvyi Rih.)
Pavlohrad Interest: Large-scale fire at Pavlohrad railway junction after combined missile/drone strike, labeling it "one of the largest logistics hubs." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Odesa Oblast: "Два майора" reports another strike on GUR in Odesa Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU detained an FSB agent who corrected RF strikes on Odesa, and sentenced her to 15 years. РБК-Україна shares a photo message and caption detailing the 15-year sentence of an RF agent in Odesa, who photographed objects while walking with her 6-year-old son, confirming ongoing counter-intelligence efforts and RF methods.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New information from РБК-Україна provides further details on the counter-intelligence operation.)
Cherkasy Oblast: Warning for Cherkasy due to enemy UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Kramatorsk: ASTRA shares video of the aftermath of an RF strike, showing a heavily damaged multi-story building with smoke and a fire truck, confirming the reported increase in casualties to three. РБК-Україна also reports increase in casualties to three from strike on a five-story building. UA General Staff reports clashes near Stupochky, Bila Hora, Chasiv Yar (Kramatorsk direction). ASTRA shares a video of Lukashenka and Putin discussing the conflict, with Lukashenka stating, "Through a month, a month and a half, two, the Russians will capture everything," and mentioning "Kramatorsk" and Ukrainian armed forces, indicating RF ambition to seize Kramatorsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Rivne Oblast: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the return of hydrotechnical structures valued at over 2.3 billion UAH from private ownership, indicating ongoing efforts to secure national infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Pereyaslav (Kyiv Oblast): Оперативний ЗСУ reports on a local mayor's controversial decision to relocate the territorial defense unit (Teroborona) and replace them with a Territorial Recruitment Center (TCC), raising concerns about internal administrative decisions affecting force posture. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Based on a single UA source, requires further verification of impact.)
Chernihiv Oblast: RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Medvedivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Lyman Direction: UA General Staff reports clashes near Karpivka, Ridkodub, Myrne and towards Shandryholove, Yampil, Hryhorivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Toretsk Direction: UA General Staff reports clashes near Dyliyivka, Toretsk, Scherbynivka and towards Bila Hora, Stepanivka, Rusyn Yar. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Russians have advanced in Donetsk Oblast, specifically in Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Zelene Hay, and near Oleksiivka and Andriyivka-Klevtseve, citing DeepState.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New reporting from DeepState (via ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) confirms RF advances in Toretsk direction.)
Novopavlivka Direction: UA General Staff reports clashes near Zaporizhzhya, Yalta, Zirka, Piddubne, Tolstoy, Myrne, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole, Novosilka, Novopil, and towards Temyrivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Mykolaiv Oblast: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian forces launched massive strikes on Mykolaiv Oblast. Nikolaevsky Vanek shares a video of a successful engagement by the 106th Battalion of the 63rd Brigade, neutralizing an enemy combatant. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of a Ukrainian drone engaging an RF combatant, implying a successful neutralization by the 106th Battalion of the 63rd Brigade in the Mykolaiv Oblast, consistent with the Nikolaevsky Vanek report. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs detected on the south of Mykolaivshchyna. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim, requires UA verification. UA video confirms local tactical success.)
Zhmerinka (Vinnytsia Oblast): РБК-Україна reports a railway accident at Zhmerinka station. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Belgorod Oblast: Krasnoyaruzhsky district residents to be evicted from temporary accommodation despite ongoing shelling. Local priest in Sudzha calls for residents not to protest or demonstrate on August 6th, urging faith-based action instead. TASS reports two fatalities from a Ukrainian drone attack in Belgorod Oblast.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New TASS report confirms direct casualties from UA drone strike.)
Bryansk Oblast: Video shows explosion on body of water, possibly mine or artillery. Drone security reported. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Rostov Oblast: MoD reports 60 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over regions of Russia overnight. ASTRA confirms a private residential building caught fire in Novobessergenyevka, near Taganrog, due to UAV debris. ASTRA has also reported that UAV debris fell on the territory of the Taganrog Ship Repair Plant and the Rodionovskaya oil pumping station after today's UAV attack in Rostov Oblast. Два майора shares a recruitment poster for the Military Commissariat of Leninsky and Kirovsky districts of Rostov-on-Don, inviting volunteers to sign contracts with the RF Ministry of Defense, indicating ongoing recruitment efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad confirms 60 UAVs intercepted over RF regions overnight, attributing to UA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Volgograd Oblast: Restrictions on aircraft at Volgograd Airport, then lifted. Massive UAV attack repelled, disrupting gas supply to 65 homes and train movement due to debris on railway. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Saratov Airport: Temporary restrictions on aircraft, then lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Penza Oblast: Drone attacks reported on factory, identified as Penza Radio Plant (part of Rostec). TASS reports six fatalities in a traffic accident in Penza Oblast, including a child. This is a domestic incident, not directly related to military operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Vladimir Oblast: Another drone found. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Balashikha, Moscow Oblast: Five-story residential building fire, two fatalities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Lipetsk Oblast: Air danger mode declared, then lifted. Игорь Артамонов (local Lipetsk official) shares photo messages of the airport undergoing renovation and stating flights are temporarily suspended, likely due to security incidents, confirming operational disruption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Sevastopol (Crimea): TASS and ASTRA report FSB detained a Ukrainian agent collecting data on air defense facilities in the city, with video footage of the alleged detention and interrogation. New footage (Операция Z, Colonelcassad) shows the detention of an individual, aligning with the FSB's claims of apprehending an agent. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on a tsunami in Kamchatka damaging the pier at the Rybachiy nuclear submarine base, a potentially significant impact on naval infrastructure. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares video from Sevastopol of a woman reacting with alarm to a bright light/distant explosion, which may indicate perceived or actual military activity in Crimea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF claim, unverified by UA; New footage supports RF claim of detention, but not the identity or purpose of the individual. Kamchatka incident from UA source. Sevastopol video provides some indication of local perception of threat.)
Internal Security (RF): Новости Москвы reports that a list of companies that must relocate from Moscow is being developed, indicating internal economic or security reorganization. ASTRA reports Microsoft accused FSB hackers of attacking foreign embassies in Russia, indicating continued state-sponsored cyber activity. TASS reports a draft law in the State Duma to ban free schooling for migrant children from 1st to 11th grade, and to limit Russian language testing attempts to three, indicating tightening social control and potential for migrant policy shifts. Alex Parker Returns also reports on this, with inflammatory commentary. Север.Реалии reports Putin signed a law banning films "discrediting" traditional values, indicating increased internal censorship. Филолог в засаде (RF milblogger) comments on the problem of "unrealistic risks to the lives of operational workers sent to the territory," referring to those conducting investigations and collecting evidence, suggesting internal challenges in maintaining order or addressing issues within occupied territories. TASS reports ~170 state-owned companies may relocate from Moscow to other regions. ASTRA reports a Moscow court arrested the son of director Alexei Kiryushchenko in absentia on "terrorism" charges. Север.Реалии reports local authorities in Murmansk Oblast called for reporting "disrespect for the state" to Roskomnadzor, indicating heightened internal censorship. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports that the organizers of the "Crocus" terrorist attack, Abubakr Hikmatov, Alokhimkhon Bekov, and Mukhammadrakhim Faizov, are on the RF Ministry of Internal Affairs wanted list. Север.Реалии reports the Ministry of Education recommended teachers monitor foreign schoolchildren and check them with the Ministry of Internal Affairs for "political intolerance," indicating increased internal surveillance and control over education. Север.Реалии reports Navalny's book was recognized as extremist for "hatred of power" and "harm to the economies of EAEU countries," indicating increased political repression and information control. Starshie Edda reiterates the call to cancel free education for migrants in Russia, aligning with the earlier TASS report. Mash na Donbasse reports that police in the "DNR" found pornography and videos with radical ideas from three illegal migrants, indicating increased scrutiny and control over migrants. TASS reports that the Ministry of Labor proposes banning the hiring of visa migrants without knowledge of Russian in the service sector, specifically drivers, sellers, and medical workers. TASS reports that the Prosecutor General's Office has demanded the seizure of 49 real estate properties and shares in enterprises obtained through criminal means from former Vologda mayor Yevgeny Shulepov and his family, indicating ongoing internal anti-corruption efforts within Russia.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New TASS report confirms a significant internal anti-corruption action.)
Occupied Luhansk: Video shows litter/neglect. Large queue at Luhansk Republican Clinical Hospital. Mash на Донбассе reports on two water pipelines from Uhlehirsk and Pavlopil reservoirs that are expected to cover 40% of the water deficit in the "DNR" (Donetsk People's Republic), indicating ongoing infrastructure issues in occupied territories. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides video footage of a heavily littered area under a concrete bridge, which could be in occupied Luhansk given the context of general neglect, though no specific location is provided.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New video from Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 suggests ongoing environmental degradation in occupied areas, consistent with previous reports.)
United Kingdom: Poddugny reports second batch of nuclear weapons delivered to UK from US on July 29 (Nukewatch UK). (CONFIDENCE: LOW - RF propaganda, unverified)
Myanmar: Martial law lifted after 4.5 years. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - unrelated)
Russian Economy: Alex Parker Returns shares a recruitment video for Russian special forces (Vitiaz) highlighting an attractive salary of 5.5 million rubles for the first year, indicating recruitment incentives. STERNENKO reports a fourth major Russian car manufacturer is reducing its work week, indicating economic strain from sanctions. TASS reports average cost for one fuel refill in RF grew by 9% in 2025. Bloomberg reports Russian oil tankers are stuck off the coast of India due to new restrictions, indicating further economic pressure. Rybar provides a photo message titled "Sanction War 2.0" implying continued economic pressure and the impact of sanctions. Север.Реалии reports on a scheme how to turn a defense plant into a "personal ATM," suggesting internal corruption within the RF military-industrial complex. TASS reports tourist flow from Russia to Turkey will be lower than previously forecasted, and that Turkish hotels have lowered prices due to low demand from Russian tourists. TASS reports the government aims to keep gasoline price increases at the level of inflation despite possible temporary fluctuations. TASS reports Ministry of Transport is not inclined to restrict Turkish Airlines flights due to baggage non-delivery, indicating ongoing logistical issues affecting civilians. TASS reports the Central Bank lifted restrictions on foreign currency purchases for unfriendly foreign investors investing under new rules, potentially indicating economic adjustments. Colonelcassad shares a photo message about Switzerland being "shocked" by 39% US tariffs, indicating RF focus on Western economic disputes. TASS reports preparation for school will cost Russians 15,000 rubles on average this year. TASS reports that RF (Rosimushchestvo) became the main shareholder of PJSC Yuzhuralzoloto GK (South Ural Gold Company) as of July 15, 2025, according to RAS reporting, indicating further state control over key economic assets.Операция Z shares a Reuters report about a potential RF response to Trump's attempts to stop India's purchases of Russian oil, suggesting Russia could shut down the CPC oil pipeline (exporting Kazakh oil via Novorossiysk), which would affect US and allied oil companies. This highlights potential economic leverage by Russia.Оперативний ЗСУ reports that KamAZ's net loss in the first half of the year was 20.8 billion rubles, indicating significant economic losses for a major Russian industrial enterprise.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New TASS report confirms state control over economic assets. New Reuters report via Операция Z highlights potential economic countermeasures. New Operatyvnyi ZSU report indicates economic stress on a major Russian manufacturer, relevant to overall economic sustainment.)
Iran: Aeroflot will resume Moscow-Tehran flights in August. Рыбарь shares photo messages about "Witch hunt in Iran," indicating RF focus on internal Iranian affairs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Belarus: Lukashenka stating Russia is guarantor of security. Lukashenka will visit Russia today to meet with Putin. TASS video confirms Lukashenka departed for Moscow. Colonelcassad reports Lukashenka's statement on the use of nuclear weapons, indicating alignment with RF's nuclear posturing. Басурин о главном shares video confirming Lukashenka's arrival in Russia. TASS confirms Lukashenka and Putin are meeting at Valaam, with video evidence. Rybar shares new video of the informal meeting between Putin and Lukashenka at Valaam. WarGonzo shares video of Putin and Lukashenka discussing "union projects" at the Smolensky Skit. TASS shares video of Putin and Lukashenka participating in a prayer service at Valaam. Alex Parker Returns shares video of Putin and Lukashenka meeting. TASS reports Lukashenka called the annual meetings with Putin at Valaam a "good tradition." TASS reports Lukashenka stated Belarus has always been and will be "next to Russia." Оперативний ЗСУ reports Lukashenka stating Russia is interested in an "air truce" and that he asked the American delegation to convey this to Trump. This indicates Belarus's role in diplomatic messaging. РБК-Україна reports Belarus announced the creation of a Special Operations Forces brigade near Ukraine's border, a new force disposition element near the border. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of Lukashenka and Putin discussing military strategy, emphasizing proactive negotiation and strategic positioning to avoid escalation, and intelligence gathering for defensive preparations. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports that Belarus is forming a new Airborne Assault Brigade of Special Operations Forces on the border with Ukraine.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Belarus is forming a new Special Operations Forces brigade on the border with Ukraine, citing Russian media, further confirming this development.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - confirmed high-level meeting and strong public statements of alignment. New info on Lukashenka's peace overture adds context. New Belarus brigade is a significant development, now confirmed by Poddubny and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS.)
Nagorno-Karabakh: Photos of destroyed monument to Aivazovsky in Khankendi (Stepanakert), confirming cultural destruction by Azerbaijani authorities. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also shared photos of the destroyed monument. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns (RF source) criticizes TASS for using "Stepanakert" over "Khankendi" after Azerbaijan's MFA demanded an apology, highlighting a linguistic and political sensitivity in RF reporting. Военкор Котенок also reports on this. WarGonzo shares video of Russia providing 140 tons of aid to families displaced from Karabakh, framing it as a humanitarian effort. Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message "Azerbaijan strikes back," indicating continued tension in the region. Два майора reports Azerbaijani media claiming Russia is preparing for war with Azerbaijan near Gyumri. Два майора also reports Aksyonov (Crimean leader) called for monuments destroyed by Azerbaijan to be sent to Crimea for installation. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Azerbaijan is "beautifully putting Russian propagandists in their place" for refusing to call Stepanakert "Khankendi," threatening to use historical names for Russian cities. STERNENKO also reports on Azerbaijan "publicly humiliating" Russians over this issue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Humanitarian aid effort is confirmed, likely aimed at projecting influence. Reports of increased tension with Azerbaijan are significant. The name dispute highlights diplomatic friction.)
China: RF plans to establish railway transportation to Laos via China. Kotsnews shares a video celebrating the 98th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA), highlighting military strength. TASS reports a robot in China has entered graduate school to become a specialist in Chinese opera history, a non-military, domestic technological development. TASS reports Russia and North Korea will jointly issue stamps to mark the 80th anniversary of the liberation of the Korean Peninsula from Japanese rule. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - unrelated to current Ukraine conflict directly, but shows RF engagement with China and North Korea.)
Saudi Arabia: Amusement ride collapsed. TASS reports launch of direct air service between RF and Saudi Arabia, suggesting diplomatic/economic ties. TASS provides video of registration for first regular flight from Vnukovo to Saudi Arabia. TASS reports the first regular flight between Saudi Arabia and Russia landed in Vnukovo. TASS reports Ministry of Transport expects "Azimut" flights from Russia to Saudi Arabia to launch in October. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Moldova: Moldovan President Sandu called on migrants abroad to register for elections by Aug 14. Moldova intends to solve Transnistrian problem only after RF Operational Group of Forces withdrawal. Рыбарь shares a photo message "Europad on Sandu's head," implying RF criticism or pressure on Moldovan President Sandu. TASS reports Milorad Dodik (President of Republika Srpska) called his sentence in Bosnia and Herzegovina an EU-initiated political attack on Republika Srpska. This relates to regional instability and RF's narrative of Western interference. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Estonia: Estonia does not plan to recognize Palestine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Nicaragua: Nicaragua officially recognized new territories of Ukraine as part of Russia. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Isolated diplomatic event, international legal standing challenged.)
India: Indian state-owned oil refineries suspending purchases of Russian oil amid Trump's customs threats/EU sanctions. Операция Z shares a Reuters report about a potential RF response to Trump's attempts to stop India's purchases of Russian oil, suggesting Russia could shut down the CPC oil pipeline, which highlights potential economic leverage by Russia.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New Reuters report via Операция Z highlights potential economic countermeasures by Russia related to India's oil purchases.)
Syria: RF Defence Minister Belousov met with Syrian Defence Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra in Moscow to discuss cooperation. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 confirms the meeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
TikTok (Global): Messages about leak of 250,000 lines of email/usernames/user IDs of TikTok users from Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
BRICS: Peskov stated BRICS work not oriented against other countries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
High-Speed Rail (RF): Putin ordered model for high-speed rail network development by March 31, 2026. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - internal development)
Hungary: Hungary does not plan to recognize Palestine for now. TASS reports Orbán's statement criticizing the EU's deal with the US, including arms purchases for Ukraine, indicating internal EU dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Laos: Laotian President Thongloun Sisoulith gifted two elephants to Putin. Belousov held talks with Laotian Defence Minister Khamlieng Outhakaisone, discussing military-technical cooperation and joint exercises. RF and Laos signed seven documents, including a roadmap for nuclear cooperation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - diplomatic activity with military implications)
Poland: Poland "secretly" testing American autonomous boats to enhance special operations in the Baltic Sea. TASS reports Poland will not build a continuous line of fortifications on its border with Russia. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a series of photo messages commemorating the 81st anniversary of the Warsaw Uprising, emphasizing "For your freedom and ours!" and linking RF actions to historical atrocities by "RONA" SS grouping, indicating strong UA-Polish historical and political alignment. Операция Z shares a photo message alleging that Poland's "friendship" with Ukraine is over, with the caption "Nawrocki reminded Zelenskyy about the 'historical grievances' of Poland." This is a significant RF propaganda effort targeting UA-Polish relations. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports a Ukrainian citizen was detained in Poland with a large batch of drugs and firearms, with the investigation tracing the drugs back to Mexico, which is a RF propaganda point aimed at discrediting Ukrainians and sowing discord between UA and Poland.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New Poddubny report reinforces RF propaganda aimed at UA-Polish relations.)
UN: UN recognized a lightning flash of 829 km as the longest in the world. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - unrelated)
Global: Trump stated he wants to conclude peace in Ukraine before August 8th. Rubio stated US had full conversation with RF this week on stopping the war, with no progress. Trump also reportedly offered EU energy resources for $1 trillion in exchange for tariff reductions, according to Politico (reported by TASS). Cambodia intends to nominate Trump for Nobel Peace Prize, as reported by TASS, indicating an effort to boost his international standing. Alex Parker Returns reports Cambodia plans to nominate Trump for Nobel Peace Prize for his contribution to conflict resolution with Thailand. Shef Hayabusa reports US proposed allocating $55 billion to Ukraine using frozen Russian assets. Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message "The clock is ticking," showing a graphic on US debt and implying a looming financial crisis. TASS reports Putin is ready to wait if Kyiv does not want negotiations now. TASS reports Putin noted his June 2024 conditions for Ukraine remain in force. Alex Parker Returns reports "if Kyiv and the West refuse the new peace proposal, then the conditions will be different." TASS reports Putin found Istanbul negotiations "generally positive." TASS reports Putin discussed the "special military operation" situation with the Minister of Defense and Chief of General Staff on July 31st. Оперативний ЗСУ reiterates Putin's statement that "if Kyiv and the West refuse the new peace proposal, then the conditions will allegedly be different." Zelenskiy / Official states that Ukraine supports President Trump's efforts to end the war and achieve peace, and is grateful for global support. This statement is echoed by 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 and КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація). Оперативний ЗСУ also reiterates Zelenskyy's statement on readiness to meet with leaders to discuss ending the war if Russia is serious about a lasting peace. РБК-Україна also covers Zelenskyy's reaction to Putin's statements and his proposal for a leader-level meeting. РБК-Україна reports an expert explanation on whether anything will change for Ukraine after Trump's "deadline" expires, indicating focus on Western political developments. TASS reports Trump stated Democrats' dissemination of false information about RF interference in 2016 elections was the biggest scandal in US history, and those responsible should be held accountable, indicating continued RF efforts to influence US political discourse. Colonelcassad reiterates Trump's statement regarding Democrats and RF interference in 2016 elections, framing it as a major US scandal, supporting RF's efforts to influence US political discourse. ASTRA shares a photo message claiming Zelenskyy is ready to meet with Putin, stating "Kyiv hears Moscow's statements." This is a significant diplomatic development, indicating a potential shift in Ukraine's public stance on negotiations. TASS reports Lavrov stating that discussions on Ukrainian issues between Moscow and Washington since the beginning of the year are "very useful and yield results," implying ongoing, high-level diplomatic engagement.TASS reports Lavrov stating that RF proposed creating working groups on political and military issues with Ukraine and is awaiting Kyiv's reaction, indicating a formal diplomatic overture.TASS reports Lavrov stating that the US administration is aware of the current realities and seeks to consider the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis, suggesting a potential shift in US stance as perceived by Russia.TASS reports Lavrov stating that Russia agrees with the US that a direct military confrontation between the two countries must be prevented, indicating a mutual de-escalation interest.TASS reports Lavrov stating that RF is encouraged by US openness to continue an honest, mutually respectful dialogue, further highlighting diplomatic engagement.Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report Donald Trump's statement that Russia lost 112,500 soldiers since the beginning of the year, while Ukraine lost 8,000, which is likely a significant overestimation of UA losses and underestimation of RF losses, and is being used by both sides for propaganda. Операция Z attributes Trump's quote "This is a war that should not have been - it's Biden's war, not Trump's. I'm here to find out if I can stop it," indicating an ongoing narrative to shift blame and highlight Trump's perceived peace-making role.Colonelcassad explicitly states that Trump's claims of RF losing 112,000 personnel and UA losing 8,000 are "all that needs to be known about Trump's awareness of the war in Ukraine," directly mocking the figures, indicating RF's own skepticism and use of these figures for internal propaganda.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New information on Lavrov's statements confirms continued diplomatic efforts and attempts to shape the narrative. Trump's casualty figures are highly contested and are part of the information war. New Operatsiya Z report provides further insight into Trump's narrative. Colonelcassad's direct refutation of Trump's numbers for propaganda further confirms the use of these figures in information warfare.)
Georgia Border (Upper Lars): Mudslide near Verkhniy Lars border crossing between Russia and Georgia, causing siren activation and temporary traffic disruption. Deported Ukrainians, evacuated from "Upper Lars" basements, complained about lack of food and Georgian police brutality. ASTRA reports deported Ukrainians evacuated from the Upper Lars basement have been returned to the basement, indicating continued harsh conditions and lack of resolution for these individuals. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a powerful flood of mountain rivers in Kabardino-Balkaria (RF), which includes a video of significant damage to a bridge and government buildings from the flooding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Sweden: RF embassy statement that Swedish media uses theme of Ukrainian children for fake accusations against Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Internet Access (RF): Roskomnadzor (RKN) sent a request to remove Speedtest Ookla software. Over 4,000 Telegram users complained about a malfunction. ASTRA reports 2099 intentional internet shutdowns in Russia in July, a significant increase from previous months, indicating increased state control over information. Север.Реалии reports local authorities in Murmansk Oblast called for reporting "disrespect for the state" to Roskomnadzor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Moscow (RF): Новости Москвы reports that a list of companies that should relocate from Moscow is being developed. Новости Москвы reports an exhibition of special equipment (tractors, etc.) in Luzhniki, Moscow. Новости Москвы shares an image of a modern architectural rendering of a building that appears to be a stable or equestrian facility, with no military significance. TASS reports Actor Maxim Glotov died in Moscow at 61. Новости Москвы has posted a video confirming a free car exhibition at VDNH on August 2nd and 3rd, displaying various civilian vehicles. Новости Москвы reports weather forecasts for Moscow indicate temperatures above +30 degrees Celsius and heavy downpours are expected. Новости Москвы reports public transportation in Moscow requires immediate payment upon entry. TASS reports that all SDEK (logistics company) systems are operating normally, with possible short-term disruptions attributed to technical reasons, indicating internal monitoring of critical civilian services.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - internal development, no military impact. Новости Москвы shows new Huawei smartphone launch, non-military. New TASS report indicates internal monitoring of critical civilian services.)
Space (RF): Bakanov (likely from Roscosmos) stating agreement with acting NASA head on ISS operation until 2028. Воин DV shares video celebrating the Day of Creation of the Russian Aerospace Forces, including footage of rocket launches, military aircraft, and air defense systems, highlighting their capabilities. MoD Russia shares a photo message celebrating 10 years since the formation of the Russian Aerospace Forces, with the caption "Air supremacy is ours." TASS reports the launch of a Crew Dragon spacecraft with a Russian cosmonaut (Platonov) to the ISS, indicating continued space cooperation despite geopolitical tensions.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New TASS report confirms continued international space cooperation.)
Eilat Port (Israel): 95% of ships refuse to moor at Eilat port. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Kamchatka (RF Far East): Three earthquakes (M5.2, M5.0, M5.8) in less than an hour. TASS reports over 20 medical workers in Kamchatka will be presented with federal awards for their actions during the earthquake. TASS reports the Severo-Kurilsk sea terminal has resumed operations after the earthquake, indicating recovery efforts. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a tsunami in Kamchatka damaged the pier at the Rybachiy nuclear submarine base, a potential blow to RF naval infrastructure. TASS reports Putin promised to award doctors who worked during the earthquake in Kamchatka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Internal RF Social Issues: ASTRA reports on the new head of the "Lesta" gaming studio. TASS reports on the choice of school uniforms in Russia. Север.Реалии reports a court in Novgorod fined an activist for insulting a policeman, indicating continued suppression of dissent. Старше Эдды (RF milblogger) adverts for kitchen knives, likely an internal marketing or morale booster. TASS reports risk of eating disorders in Russian girls aged 12-14 has doubled in 10 years. Север.Реалии reports arrest of female resident in Usinsk for attempting to set mosque on fire. Новости Москвы reports significant increase in eating disorders among 12-14 year old girls. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on residents requesting the return of a mobilized head of settlement, indicating social pressure related to mobilization. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 attempts to counter "unreliable information" about marines from 810th and 30th Motor Rifle Regiments, suggesting internal morale/propaganda issues. Janus Putkonen (RF source) shares a video "Russia does not abandon its own!", showing an elderly man in uniform being honored, likely to boost morale. TASS reports passport issued to 98-year-old WWII veteran from Latvia in Pskov Oblast, indicating RF efforts to integrate former Soviet citizens and use veteran narrative for morale/propaganda. Новости Москвы reports public transportation controllers are immediately blocking validators when passengers board, indicating an internal social issue related to public services. Mash na Donbasse reports a domestic murder in Mariupol. TASS reports on Mishustin's instruction to the Ministry of Finance and Construction to study the possibility of preferential housing rentals for young families with children. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports the son of Matvienko lives in Italy, highlighting perceived elite hypocrisy. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares photos with the caption "Будни солдата" (Soldier's everyday life), showing soldiers and a piglet being roasted, serving as a morale booster. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares photo messages celebrating August 1st as the Day of Logistics Support of the Armed Forces, indicating internal focus on military sustainment. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 appeals for donations for drones and Starlink, highlighting ongoing resource shortfalls for soldiers. Филолог в засаде expresses skepticism about a new "SMERSH" (counter-intelligence) organization due to potential for abuse, indicating internal discussion and concerns within RF society. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares a video of a soldier speaking about children in an orphanage without supervision, suggesting social welfare issues related to military service. Военкор Котенок reports on a new program "SVOy business" from Sber and United Russia to support veterans and their families in starting businesses, highlighting state support efforts. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a photo message about the alleged psychological abuse and stress inflicted on RF tank crews in training to make them emotionless and unquestioning. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo message with the caption "Сегодня же пятница, ВЛАДИМИР ВЛАДИМИРОВИЧ разрешил бахнуть вместо пивка залп за десантников!", indicating morale-boosting efforts among military personnel, likely referencing an RF holiday related to Airborne Forces. Mash на Донбассе reports a domestic incident in Zaporizhzhia Oblast where an elderly woman set her cohabitant on fire, which is a local social issue in occupied territory. Басурин о главном shares multiple photo messages and a video highlighting August 1st as the Day of Remembrance for Russian soldiers who died in WWI, serving as a morale-boosting and nationalistic propaganda effort. Два майора shares multiple photo messages under the caption "Рубрика «Будни солдата»" (Soldier's everyday life), depicting aspects of military life, including a soldier with a dog, which serves as a morale booster or human interest piece for the RF military.Colonelcassad shares multiple photo messages with the caption "В краю "нерабов"," which is a derogatory term for Ukrainians, alongside various images including some depicting damaged areas and what appear to be civilians squatting or gathering by a roadside. These messages are primarily propaganda aimed at discrediting Ukrainians.Старше Эдды shares a message commemorating the Day of Remembrance for Russian soldiers who died in WWI, framing it as a missed triumph and warning against internal subversion, indicating ongoing nationalistic propaganda and internal control narratives.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - new info from Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is significant as it highlights direct funding shortfalls for soldiers, and new morale boosting efforts. Mash на Донбассе reports a social issue in occupied territory. Басурин о главном's content is a clear morale/propaganda effort. New content from Два майора and Colonelcassad further confirms ongoing RF morale and propaganda efforts. New Старше Эдды message reiterates nationalistic and internal control narratives.)
Voronezh Oblast, RF: Several UAVs destroyed over Voronezh Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Moldova Internal: Irina Vlah, former head of Gagauzia, claimed surveillance, interrogations, and threats related to Moldovan elections. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - based on a single source's claims, but reinforced by consistent narrative.)
South Korea/USA: South Korea and USA expressed commitment to complete denuclearization of DPRK. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - unrelated)
Igor Strelkov: Igor Strelkov publishes a new message "Return to the past" will not be only for "VIP officials", but for all of us," indicating continued internal dissent and commentary on RF policies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF Airspace: TASS reports Russia has established a new "H" airspace class for drones, indicating new regulatory measures for UAV operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Sierra Leone: Рыбарь (RF milblogger) discusses US financial aid to Sierra Leone, framing it as a geopolitical maneuver for US influence, likely aimed at undermining trust in Western aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF Internal Police: Полиция Хабаровского края video shows Russian law enforcement officers responding to fire in a garage in Saratov Oblast and assisting individuals in Orenburg Oblast, indicating domestic emergency response actions. Полиция Хабаровского края shares photo message captioned "Dear friends!," which is a generic greeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
US Aviation: TASS reports US Federal Aviation Administration cited possible air traffic controller error as cause of aviation disaster, indicating general aviation safety concerns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - unrelated)
Nižnij Novgorod: Глеб Никитин shares photo messages of a civilian forum, likely aimed at promoting patriotism and faith among youth, with no military significance. New photo messages from Глеб Никитин show the opening of a railroad overpass in Vyezdnoe village, Arzamas, indicating continued focus on internal infrastructure development.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New photos confirm internal infrastructure development focus.)
Vladimir Putin: TASS reports Peskov stating Putin never officially takes vacation, indicating an attempt to reinforce image of hardworking leader. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Putin signed new laws, reinforcing the image of an active leader. TASS reports Putin and Lukashenka are conducting an informal meeting on Valaam. Rybar also shares video of this informal meeting. WarGonzo shares video of Putin and Lukashenka discussing "union projects" at the Smolensky Skit. TASS shares video of Putin and Lukashenka participating in a prayer service at Valaam. Alex Parker Returns shares video of Putin and Lukashenka meeting. TASS reports Lukashenka called the annual meetings with Putin at Valaam a "good tradition." TASS reports Lukashenka stated Belarus has always been and will be "next to Russia." Оперативний ЗСУ reports Lukashenka stating Russia is interested in an "air truce" and that he asked the American delegation to convey this to Trump. This indicates Belarus's role in diplomatic messaging. TASS reports Putin discussed the "special military operation" situation with the Minister of Defense and Chief of General Staff on July 31st. TASS reports Putin states his June 2024 conditions for Ukraine remain in force and he is ready to wait for negotiations. TASS reports Putin states the main goal is to eradicate the causes of the crisis in Ukraine and ensure Russia's security. TASS reports Putin seeks long-term peace without time limits. TASS reports Putin confirmed the first serial "Oreshnik" missile entered service and is being deployed to forces. TASS reports Putin expects "Oreshnik" delivery to Belarus by year-end, with location selection underway. ASTRA shares video of Putin stating the "Oreshnik" complex entered service. Poddugny shares video of Putin stating Russian troops are advancing along the entire line of contact and positive activity is due to courage and heroism. ASTRA and РБК-Україна share videos of Putin and Lukashenka discussing "Oreshnik" production. Colonelcassad confirms Putin's statements on "Oreshnik" and the situation in the SVO zone. Mash на Донбассе shares video summarizing Putin's key statements from his meeting with Lukashenka on the SVO, truce, and new regions. TASS reports Putin stated long-term truce conditions have not changed. Операция Z reports Putin stated "Today's government in Ukraine is not based on the Constitution, the Constitution is clearly violated." Colonelcassad highlights Putin's statements on Ukraine's political sovereignty and corruption, reinforcing RF's narrative. TASS provides video of Putin discussing Ukraine's lack of sovereignty regarding NABU and SAP. ASTRA provides video of Putin responding to "Trump's disappointment" regarding peace efforts. TASS reports The Spectator writes that the damage to Zelenskyy's image from the law on NABU and SAP has become irreparable, an RF propaganda point. Colonelcassad provides a summary report from the RF Ministry of Defense on the progress of the Special Military Operation from July 26 to August 1, 2025. TASS reports Ramzan Kadyrov has returned to training after a break, indicating a domestic update for a key RF figure. Операция Z also shares video of Putin stating "Russia does not seize territories during the SVO, but returns its own." Басурин о главном also repeats this Putin quote. РБК-Україна reports Putin "reproached" Trump for "excessive expectations" from Russia, indicating a diplomatic development. Операция Z shares a photo message quoting The Spectator article about irreparable damage to Zelenskyy's reputation from the NABU and SAP law, serving as RF propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New reporting on Putin's interaction with Trump and RF's continued propaganda against Zelenskyy confirm ongoing strategic messaging.)
EU: TASS reports Ursula von der Leyen's correspondence with Pfizer CEO on vaccine procurement was lost or destroyed, indicating internal EU controversy. Colonelcassad confirms this report. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Krasnoyarsk Krai (RF): Оперативний ЗСУ and ASTRA report a freight train locomotive derailed, causing delays. This is a domestic incident, but impacts internal logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Kirov Oblast: TASS reports pensioner died testing homemade helicopter, a domestic incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Kursk Oblast: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video showing a dirt road through dense forest, with what appears to be destroyed or abandoned military equipment (artillery/vehicle chassis). STERNENKO has provided new video from Kursk Oblast showing active combat and destruction of enemy forces by UA. ASTRA reports a local priest from Sudzha called for residents not to protest on August 6th, and to go to church instead. Colonelcassad shares drone footage of a 'cleaning' operation in a buffer zone near Romashkovo and Korenek, targeting military emplacements and Starlink terminals. While the specific oblast is not stated, these are likely border areas.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New Colonelcassad video indicates continued RF combat operations in border regions.)
Greece: TASS reports "All-Greek Movement of Greek-Russian Friendship" party developing ties with RF amid anti-Russian propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Germany (Internal): Kotsnews reports Germany is rapidly increasing its military budget and planning large-scale military procurements, including 20 Eurofighters, 3,000 Boxer APCs, and 3,500 Patria IFVs. TASS reports that beer sales in Germany hit a new anti-record, citing the Federal Statistical Office, highlighting a domestic economic issue. Kotsnews states "Germans tighten their armor belts" in reference to new military procurements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Serbia: TASS reports Vucic (Serbian President) called an emergency session of the National Security Council for August 2nd. Два майора reports Vucic convened an emergency meeting of the National Security Council for August 2nd. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Ukraine (Internal Affairs): РБК-Україна reports that the candidate for Director of the Bureau of Economic Security (BEB), Tsyvinsky, will undergo a polygraph test. Оперативний ЗСУ also confirms Tsyvinsky's polygraph. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on illegal sand extraction operations in Kirovohrad Oblast, implicating a regional council deputy from the banned "OPZZh" party, indicating continued internal corruption investigations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a Russian officer, Lt. Col. Ruslan Negrub, who commands Shahed launches on civilians, and claims he is also a domestic sadist. This is a significant counter-propaganda piece. TASS reports that NABU feels humiliated and intends to more actively investigate Ukrainian officials, citing The Economist, indicating RF focus on UA internal affairs. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a Lviv resident sentenced to 7 years for justifying RF aggression on TikTok, highlighting UA counter-propaganda measures and internal law enforcement. РБК-Україна reports Svyrydenko has ordered accelerating the competition to select the head of customs. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a photo message reporting the death of Iryna Humenyuk and her daughters Alina and Anastasia as a result of a Russian strike, noting the father is fighting. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of Kevin Leek, a Ukrainian POW returned in an exchange a year ago, publicly destroying his Russian passport, attempting to burn it and then tearing it, which is a powerful act of defiance. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України shares a video showing Russian mobilized soldiers being sent to death without support, reinforcing negative narratives about RF treatment of troops. Президентська бригада ЗСУ shares photo messages indicating that on July 31, Metropolitan Epiphanius awarded the Separate Presidential Brigade with the Order of George the Victorious, a morale-boosting event. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video claiming that former RF POWs are immediately sent back to the front after exchange, highlighting alleged Russian disregard for personnel and low morale. The video features a soldier stating he was captured, exchanged, and sent back to the front with an injured leg.‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» shares a photo message regarding additional 14 days of leave for military personnel, indicating ongoing efforts to manage personnel welfare.Colonelcassad reports the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers officially permitted TCCs to send mobilization summons via mail, previously requiring in-person delivery, indicating a significant change in Ukrainian mobilization procedures.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New reporting from Президентська бригада ЗСУ is a clear morale booster and recognition for Ukrainian forces. New video from Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 highlights a potential RF practice of sending former POWs back to combat, serving as UA counter-propaganda. New message from 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade highlights internal personnel management efforts. Colonelcassad's report on mail-in summons is a significant change in UA conscription policy, now confirmed by RF source.)
Ukraine (Counter-Intelligence): Оперативний ЗСУ shares SBU/National Police video warning minors on how to avoid being recruited by RF special services. Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU exposed internet agitators in Russia calling for the seizure of Ukraine. Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU detained an FSB agent who corrected RF strikes on Odesa, and sentenced her to 15 years. РБК-Україна shares a photo message and caption detailing the 15-year sentence of an RF agent in Odesa, who photographed objects while walking with her 6-year-old son, confirming ongoing counter-intelligence efforts and RF methods.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New information from РБК-Україна provides further details on the counter-intelligence operation.)
Lithuania: РБК-Україна reports a drone from Belarus was found at a training ground in Lithuania. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a photo message about the "Gerbera" UAV found in Lithuania, confirming it came from Belarus. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides a photo message of the "Gerbera" drone found in Lithuania, confirming its origin from Belarus. TASS reports Lithuania located a Russian citizen who jumped from a train 1.5 months ago, indicating general border security issues. TASS reports Lithuania expressed official protest to Belarus regarding the violation of air border by a drone and its penetration into the country's territory, confirming a diplomatic escalation related to the drone incident.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New TASS report confirms diplomatic action following the drone incident.)
Belarus: РБК-Україна reports a drone from Belarus was found at a training ground in Lithuania. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a photo message about the "Gerbera" UAV found in Lithuania, confirming it came from Belarus. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides a photo message of the "Gerbera" drone found in Lithuania, confirming its origin from Belarus. РБК-Україна reports Belarus announced the creation of a Special Operations Forces brigade near Ukraine's border, indicating new force disposition elements. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports that Belarus is forming a new Airborne Assault Brigade of Special Operations Forces on the border with Ukraine.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Belarus is forming a new Special Operations Forces brigade on the border with Ukraine, citing Russian media, further confirming this development.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New confirmation from Poddubny and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS on the formation of a new SOF brigade.)
RF Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports that the organizers of the "Crocus" terrorist attack, Abubakr Hikmatov, Alokhimkhon Bekov, and Mukhammadrakhim Faizov, are on the RF Ministry of Internal Affairs wanted list. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Mali: Оперативний ЗСУ reports a video claiming former Wagner Group "African Corps" personnel were defeated by local forces, an RF setback in Africa. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - based on UA source, requires verification).
Novorossiysk (RF): TASS reports that an apartment building where a domestic gas explosion occurred in July has been declared safe for residents, with the exception of three apartments, indicating a civilian incident and subsequent recovery efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - domestic incident, not military.)
Madagascar: TASS reports Madagascar is assessing the possibility of direct flights to Russia using foreign airlines, indicating Russia's efforts to establish new air travel routes and strengthen international ties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - This is a new development not related to military operations directly but indicative of RF's diplomatic and economic outreach.)
Domodedovo Airport (RF): TASS reports that the Russian Ministry of Transport is in daily dialogue with Domodedovo airport management to monitor passenger traffic and service provision, implying ongoing oversight of key transport hubs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - This is a new development not related to military operations directly but indicative of RF's internal infrastructure management.)
RF Tactical Aviation:Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the East of Ukraine, indicating continued aerial threat and presence.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New report from UA Air Force confirms continued RF tactical aviation activity.)
AI (Global/RF focus):TASS reports a former Google and Microsoft engineer believes there is "at least 95%" probability of human extinction due to AI development, which while not directly military, may be part of a broader RF narrative on Western technological risks or general societal anxieties.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New TASS report indicates RF media focus on broader technological risks, possibly for internal narrative shaping.)
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
Kharkiv Oblast: Continued RF strikes cause fires and damage. RF aviation is active, with threat of aerial munitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Donetsk/Luhansk (Occupied): Ongoing fires in fields. Video from Luhansk shows significant debris. Water supply issues in four Donetsk cities. Mash na Donbashe video shows makeshift rainwater collection in Makeevka. Mash на Донбассе reports on two water pipelines from Uhlehirsk and Pavlopil reservoirs that are expected to cover 40% of the water deficit in the "DNR" (Donetsk People's Republic), indicating ongoing infrastructure and environmental challenges. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС drone footage from Chasiv Yar shows extensive destruction and fires from ongoing combat. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares new drone footage of Pokrovsk showing widespread urban destruction. Сливочный каприз (RF milblogger) shares drone video of engagement near Siversk showing explosions and damaged areas, confirming ongoing combat impact. Mash на Донбассе shares video of aftermath of damaged school building in Makeevka, showing collapsed roof and wall. Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns videos show bridge destruction near Konstantinovka. НгП раZVедка (RF milblogger) has provided new photo messages confirming the destruction of a bridge in Konstantinovka, including "daytime objective control" footage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New RF video (Операция Z) shows burning vehicles and destroyed structures near Pokrovsk, indicating sustained environmental impact from combat. Colonelcassad's video from Rodinskoye noting "front is close" to Krasnoarmeysk further supports this. Воин DV shares drone footage showing a landscape with trenches, fortified positions, debris, and an explosion, indicating an active conflict zone with significant environmental impact. WarGonzo shares video showing D-20 howitzer crew from "Somali" battalion, with drone footage showing destroyed infrastructure and smoke plumes from artillery fire, indicating significant environmental impact. Colonelcassad's latest videos from Vovchansk show damaged residential areas, smoke plumes, and explosions, confirming environmental impact from combat. New video from Оперативний ЗСУ shows a damaged road with destroyed military vehicles, including a burned-out truck and pickup, and smoke in the distance near Pokrovsk, indicating significant environmental impact from recent heavy fighting. MoD Russia releases new drone footage showing "Artillerymen hit an ammunition depot and enemy firing points in South Donetsk direction," indicating continued strikes and focus on logistics. Colonelcassad shares drone footage of a 'Baba Yaga' drone, likely engaged in reconnaissance and potential strike missions against military vehicles and infrastructure in Donbas, with visible explosions and fires. Colonelcassad's video shows a Russian soldier blew up a Ukrainian strongpoint near Siversk, causing a large explosion, indicating direct environmental impact from combat. Colonelcassad shares new drone footage showing a military convoy on a dirt road being targeted, with explosions and smoke visible, indicating ongoing combat and environmental impact. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides video footage of a heavily littered area under a concrete bridge, indicative of environmental neglect in conflict-affected areas.Colonelcassad shares drone footage of a 'cleaning' operation in a buffer zone, showing explosions and impacts in a wooded area, indicating direct environmental impact from combat operations.Операция Z shares new video footage of a "road of death" between Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, showing destroyed AFU equipment including pickup trucks and other burnt vehicles on a road near a damaged overpass/bridge, with smoke plumes in the distance, indicating heavy fighting and significant environmental impact from recent combat.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New Colonelcassad video directly confirms combat-related environmental impact. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 video adds to understanding of environmental degradation in conflict zones. New Colonelcassad video highlights ongoing combat environmental impact. New Operatsiya Z video further confirms significant environmental impact due to heavy fighting.)
General Conditions: Continued operations in adverse weather (rain affecting visibility). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Kamchatka (RF Far East): Three earthquakes (M5.2, M5.0, M5.8). Оперативний ЗСУ reports a tsunami in Kamchatka damaged the pier at the Rybachiy nuclear submarine base, indicating a significant environmental impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Kherson Direction: "Два майора" mentions "strong wind" during drone footage. New video from Два майора shows a large commercial building on fire, indicating significant environmental impact. TASS, ASTRA, Mash на Донбассе, Военкор Котенок, and Басурин о главном all confirm significant fire damage to commercial pavilions in Velyki Kopani, Kherson Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Kotelnikovo (RF): Large fire observed after UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Rostov Oblast (RF): Falling debris from destroyed UAVs caused forest fire. ASTRA shares new video of a private residential building fire in Novobessergenyevka, near Taganrog, due to UAV debris. ASTRA has also reported that UAV debris fell on the territory of the Taganrog Ship Repair Plant and the Rodionovskaya oil pumping station after today's UAV attack in Rostov Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Penza (RF): Plume of dark smoke from drone strike on Penza Radio Plant. Large explosion/fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Kremenchuk Raion: UA reports household building caught fire due to UAV debris. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Kyiv Oblast: Night photos show aftermath of attack. Large smoke plume and flames. Damage to railway. Operatyvnyi ZSU shares new video confirming significant explosions and fires in Bila Tserkva, specifically a furniture enterprise. Zelenskiy / Official, KMVA, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS all share imagery of heavily damaged residential buildings from the Kyiv attack. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a photo message reporting the death of Iryna Humenyuk and her daughters Alina and Anastasia as a result of a Russian strike, reinforcing the human and environmental toll. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Pavlohrad: Large-scale fire at railway junction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Belgorod Oblast (RF): Significant fire at building. TASS reports two fatalities from a Ukrainian drone attack in Belgorod Oblast.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New TASS report confirms direct casualties and associated environmental impact from UA drone strike.)
Balashikha, Moscow Oblast (RF):): TASS reports fire in residential building, thick black smoke. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Moscow (RF): Thunderstorms and strong winds expected. Новости Москвы reports weather forecasts for Moscow indicate temperatures above +30 degrees Celsius and heavy downpours are expected. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Kramatorsk: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of destroyed residential building. ASTRA shares new video of aftermath of strike on Kramatorsk, showing heavily damaged building, smoke, and fire truck. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports almost 700 hectares of grain destroyed by fires. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) shares multiple photo messages showing damaged buildings and infrastructure in Nikopolshchyna due to RF drone and artillery attacks, indicating significant environmental and structural damage.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New photo messages from Dnipropetrovska ODA confirm ongoing environmental impact from RF attacks.)
Georgia Border (Upper Lars): ASTRA video shows mudslide and siren, disrupting traffic in a mountainous region. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a powerful flood of mountain rivers in Kabardino-Balkaria (RF), which includes a video of significant damage to a bridge and government buildings from the flooding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Dnipropetrovsk: Two majora video shows large explosion and fire. РБК-Україна shares photos confirming severely damaged building, likely residential, in Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast. ASTRA shares photo message of three children extracted from under rubble of a private house following RF attack on Dnipropetropetrovsk. Colonelcassad's video shows an LMUR strike causing an explosion and smoke on a residential area/building. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) shares multiple photo messages showing damaged buildings and infrastructure in Nikopolshchyna due to RF drone and artillery attacks, indicating significant environmental and structural damage.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New photo messages from Dnipropetrovska ODA confirm ongoing environmental impact from RF attacks.)
Sumy Oblast: Два майора shares a video of an explosion in agricultural fields. РБК-Україна shares photo messages of a damaged train and railway station in Sumy, indicating direct environmental impact from RF strikes.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New photo messages from РБК-Україна confirm direct environmental impact from RF strikes on Sumy.)
Siversk-Ivano-Daryevka Direction: Heavily shelled and damaged wooded areas with craters and scattered debris. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows explosion from remotely detonated drone near Siversk. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides video of the "ждун" drone remotely detonated near Siversk. Colonelcassad reports a Russian soldier blew up a Ukrainian strongpoint with a TM-62M anti-tank mine near Siversk, causing a large explosion and environmental damage. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade's drone units eliminating RF artillery, communication nodes, and transport, particularly showing mortar positions being targeted, indicating environmental impact of combat.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video reinforces environmental impact of ongoing combat operations.)
Lipetsk Oblast: Air danger mode declared, then lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Voronezh Oblast, RF: Several UAVs destroyed over Voronezh Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Saratov Oblast (RF): Полиция Хабаровского края video shows fire in garage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Kursk Oblast: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares video showing forestation and abandoned military equipment, indicating environmental impact from combat or previous operations. STERNENKO has provided new video from Kursk Oblast showing fiery debris and an observed military utility vehicle, implying environmental impact from ongoing combat. Colonelcassad shares drone footage of a 'cleaning' operation in a buffer zone near Romashkovo and Korenek, showing explosions and impacts in a wooded area, indicating direct environmental impact from combat operations.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New Colonelcassad video confirms direct environmental impact from combat operations.)
Mykolaiv Oblast: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims "massive strikes" by Russian forces. Nikolaevsky Vanek's video shows open fields with trenches, typical of a combat zone. Олексій Білошицький's video shows explosions and impacts across rural and wooded areas, including potential elimination of personnel, indicating significant combat impact on the environment. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows an explosion near a Ukrainian position with drone engagement, consistent with active combat and environmental impact. STERNENKO shares new video footage of a deceased combatant, indicating casualties and environmental impact from recent military engagement. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim, requires UA verification. UA video confirms combat operations in such environments. STERNENKO's video confirms direct human impact.)
Unspecified Rural/Conflict Zones (RF/UA):Alex Parker Returns shares new video footage from a drone or handheld camera, showing a rural or semi-urban landscape with trees and dilapidated structures, and a lone figure walking on a dirt road, which may indicate areas impacted by ongoing conflict or reconnaissance.(CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Video lacks specific location but suggests ongoing reconnaissance or combat in a rural environment.)
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
RF Force Dispositions:
Air Assets: Capable of large-scale KAB launches (including FAB-1500) and persistent, multi-vector drone operations (Shaheds, reactive drones, FPV drones with thermobaric warheads) reaching Northern Kyiv and Western Ukraine, as well as Poltava and Sumy Oblasts. Launched 72 drones overnight, of which 60 claimed to be shot down over RF territory. MoD Russia shares new Supercam S350 UAV footage, demonstrating continued ISR and targeting capabilities. Operatyvnyi ЗСУ confirms "Gerans" hit an object in Bila Tserkva. Воин DV shares video highlighting the capabilities of the Russian Aerospace Forces and their logistics, particularly focusing on the 11th Air Force and Air Defense Army regularly using FABs in the "Vostok" group's zone of responsibility. TASS reports Business Insider's assessment that UA PVO may not cope with a new modification of Russian "Geran-3" drones equipped with a jet engine. MoD RF claims seven high-precision strikes with UAVs/missiles on Ukrainian enterprises and military airfields within a week. Colonelcassad shares video claiming LMUR (Light Multipurpose Unified Missile) strike on drone launch and control points. Воин DV shares video of 1st Tank Army's Uragan MLRS in action, Group West. Fighterbomber shares video of a large transport helicopter (likely Mi-26) in flight, indicating continued air transport capabilities. TASS reports Saldo claiming RF forces struck a base in Ochakov where Ukrainian forces were preparing for a landing on Tendrovskaya and Kinburnskaya spits. TASS reports Putin confirmed the first serial "Oreshnik" missile entered service and is being deployed to forces. TASS reports Putin expects "Oreshnik" delivery to Belarus by year-end, with location selection underway. MoD Russia shares photo messages celebrating 10 years of Russian Aerospace Forces, emphasizing "Air supremacy is ours." STERNENKO shares video of UA EW efforts neutralizing Supercam drones, indicating continued active RF aerial reconnaissance. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 confirms "Oreshnik" complex has entered service in Russia. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides video of Putin and Lukashenka discussing "Oreshnik," used in UA counter-propaganda to highlight perceived RF weakness despite the threat. Colonelcassad has shared a video showing drone footage of a Ukrainian "Vampire" drone being brought down by a "Seraphim Detachment" from the "Rykari" regiment through a drop, highlighting RF counter-UAV capabilities. MoD Russia releases new drone footage showing "Artillerymen hit an ammunition depot and enemy firing points in South Donetsk direction," indicating continued strikes and focus on logistics. Colonelcassad shares drone footage of a 'Baba Yaga' drone, likely engaged in reconnaissance and potential strike missions against military vehicles and infrastructure in Donbas. Poddugny shares video of a HMMWV being burned, confirming RF targeting capabilities. STERNENKO reports GUR MO specialists shot down 3 more "Molniya-2" enemy drones. Сили оборони Півдня України reports 123rd Territorial Defense Brigade mobile fire group "Loki" destroyed an enemy kamikaze drone. Colonelcassad shares new drone footage showing a military convoy on a dirt road being targeted, with explosions and smoke visible, indicating continued aerial targeting capabilities. Воин DV shares a video of an FPV drone "ambush" on a lone AFU cyclist, executed by scouts of the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group, demonstrating active reconnaissance and FPV strike capabilities.MoD Russia shares video of a Geran-2 drone and Lancet loitering munition attack on an AFU long-range UAV command post near Zhadovo (Sumy region), confirming targeted aerial strikes on UA C2/UAV infrastructure.Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the East, confirming continued RF air presence.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New LMUR strike and MLRS activity indicates continued aerial/long-range fire capabilities, and the confirmed production and deployment of "Oreshnik" ballistic missiles represents a significant escalation in RF long-range strike capabilities. UA EW activity confirms ongoing RF drone presence. Colonelcassad's new video confirms active aerial targeting. New Воин DV video confirms targeted FPV drone operations against UA personnel. New MoD Russia video confirms targeted aerial strikes on UA UAV infrastructure. New UA Air Force report confirms continued RF tactical aviation activity.)
Ground Forces: Persistent offensive pressure on Pokrovsk axis. TASS reports RF claims of accelerated Ukrainian retreat near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and proximity to Konstantinovka. TASS also reports RF forces have taken Ukrainian grouping in Konstantinovka under dense fire control. Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns show bridge destruction near Konstantinovka, impacting UA logistics. НгП раZVедка (RF milblogger) has provided new photo messages confirming the destruction of a bridge in Konstantinovka, including "daytime objective control" footage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides new video of UA FPV drones on fiber optics destroying RF logistics, equipment, and personnel in Chasiv Yar, directly refuting RF claims of capture. Alex Parker Returns shares a recruitment video for Russian special forces (Vitiaz), highlighting high salaries and intensive training, indicating continued efforts to attract and train personnel. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) shares propaganda video claiming "last street of Chasiv Yar" with Russian flag, indicating presence of RF ground forces. Narodnaya miliya DNR shares video claiming destruction of UA pickups by 56th Separate Special Forces Brigade, indicating active engagements and unit identification. New footage (Операция Z, Kotsnews, Старше Эдды) shows RF drone/aerial footage of strikes on Ukrainian targets near Pokrovsk, including a Humvee and other vehicles, with visual indications of destruction, reinforcing active combat operations in the sector. MoD Russia provides a video on the professional holiday of combat service support units, showing logistics, food preparation, and equipment maintenance, indicating ongoing support for deployed forces. Colonelcassad shares video featuring an RF medic from the 36th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, 29th Army, Group Vostok, discussing battlefield experiences and medical aid, reinforcing current presence. Воин DV provides a video detailing claimed RF territorial gains (over 190 km², 9 settlements) by the "Vostok" grouping in the South-Donetsk direction during July 2025, using aerial footage and maps. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares video footage of "Jewelry drops from scouts," likely FPV drone operations, showing thermal imagery of personnel and explosions, indicating active RF reconnaissance and strike capabilities. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА also provides new video footage of drone attacks on personnel in a wooded area, showing explosions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS claims RF forces destroyed part of an elite Ukrainian airborne assault regiment "Skala" transferred to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UA General Staff reports active clashes in South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Kherson, Kursk, and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports captured RF soldier who stated "We are Russians, we surrender! Drop water, we have no strength. Just don't poison us, please," indicating possible surrender attempts or low morale. Colonelcassad and Военкор Котенок report Russian assault groups have infiltrated the outskirts of Sukhetsky near Rodinskoye. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares images of a damaged Russian VDV vehicle in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a captured Russian soldier surrendering. Олексій Білошицький shares video showing drone strikes and elimination of enemy personnel, including one seemingly incapacitated, reinforcing active ground engagements. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides new video from 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade showing an RF infantryman reportedly self-detonating with a grenade upon hearing a drone approaching, indicating severe tactical pressure and psychological impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares photo messages illustrating "Будни солдата" (Soldier's everyday life), focusing on soldier morale (e.g., roasting a piglet), which is a component of ground force sustainment. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of a successful engagement by the 106th Battalion of the 63rd Brigade against an RF combatant, confirming RF ground units continue tactical assaults. Поддубный shares video of Putin stating Russian troops are advancing along the entire line of contact and positive activity is due to courage and heroism, serving as a morale booster for ground forces. Colonelcassad shares video of a large formation of black off-road motorcycles for distribution/deployment, indicating a significant logistical effort to enhance mobility for ground forces. WarGonzo shares video of a D-20 howitzer crew from the "Somali" battalion, indicating continued heavy artillery support for ground operations. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides a video of a soldier claiming to have returned from Ukrainian captivity and then being sent to the front in Donetsk, indicating RF efforts to force former POWs back into combat. Сили оборони Півдня України provides video of UA operations in Zaporizhzhia showing active defense against enemy ground positions. Colonelcassad's latest videos from Vovchansk show RF ground operations against mortar positions and personnel locations. STERNENKO has provided new video from Kursk Oblast showing active combat and destruction of enemy forces by UA. Воин DV has provided new video footage from aerial reconnaissance showing individuals in military attire moving through a wooded area, engaging in an assault, with explosions on positions described as 'dugouts', indicating active combat operations and direct targeting of UA ground forces. WarGonzo shares video of two individuals in tactical gear in a field, discussing previous military conflicts (Chechnya, Syria, Ukraine), which is RF propaganda but indicates continued discussion/focus on ground operations. Военкор Котенок shares photo messages of five Latin American mercenaries allegedly destroyed in the SVO zone, highlighting RF claims of foreign fighter losses for Ukraine. Colonelcassad reports a Russian soldier blew up a Ukrainian strongpoint with a TM-62M anti-tank mine near Siversk, demonstrating effective use of demolitions. Kadyrov_95 shares video showcasing extensive military training exercises featuring special forces, amphibious operations, airborne assaults, and military vehicles at the Russian Special Forces University in Gudermes, indicating continued investment in elite ground forces capabilities. Два майора shares a recruitment poster for the Military Commissariat of Leninsky and Kirovsky districts of Rostov-on-Don, inviting volunteers to sign contracts with the RF Ministry of Defense, indicating ongoing recruitment efforts for ground forces. Colonelcassad shares new video footage from Chasiv Yar, with the caption "Высота Часова Яра. Теперь у нас преимущество" (Height of Chasiv Yar. Now we have the advantage), claiming RF forces have secured a dominant position in the area. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Russians have advanced in Donetsk Oblast, specifically in Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Zelene Hay, and near Oleksiivka and Andriyivka-Klevtseve, citing DeepState. Colonelcassad shares drone footage of a 'cleaning' operation in a buffer zone, showing explosions and impacts in a wooded area, with the caption "Отряд "Анвар" зачищает буферную зону от украинских боевиков," indicating specific unit involvement (Anvar Detachment) and ongoing ground offensive actions.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video footage of a deceased RF soldier in camouflage, indicating recent combat fatalities in areas of engagement, confirming UA targeting capabilities against RF ground forces.Два майора shares video of a truck heavily laden with barbed wire and other defensive materials, covered in a cage-like structure, driving along a road, indicating transport of materials for fortifications or obstacles, likely for RF ground forces.Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of drone footage from 2nd Mountain Assault Battalion, showing engagements with enemy positions, including armored vehicles (BMPs) and likely mortar positions, indicating continued UA capability to effectively target RF ground forces.Воин DV celebrates the 11th Guards Air Assault Brigade (Ulan-Ude)'s birthday, serving as an RF morale booster and highlighting the continued presence of airborne units.«Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» shares a video featuring an RF soldier, emphasizing courage, dedication, and service to the country, serving as a morale-boosting propaganda piece for ground forces.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - noting the latest RF claim of UA confirmation of retreat is unverified and contradictory to public UA statements. New UA video refutation of Chasiv Yar is significant. The "bears" videos from «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» are propaganda, not actual dispositions, but the tactical training footage from the same source is relevant. Colonelcassad's latest is a propaganda/morale piece. New Operatsiya Z update reinforces RF claims on Chasiv Yar but remains unverified. New RF footage confirms active engagements and targeting of UA assets in Pokrovsk. Воин DV video confirms RF claims of territorial gains, though verification is ongoing. TASS claim about Skala regiment is unverified. Reports of advances into Sukhetsky consistent with ongoing Pokrovsk pressure. Colonelcassad's claim of 629 km² liberated in July is a significant propaganda assertion. Nikolaevsky Vanek's video shows close quarters combat, indicating RF ground units are still attempting tactical advances. The new info reinforces RF's commitment to ground offensives, supported by new equipment and continued propaganda. The recruitment poster from Два майора indicates continued efforts to replenish ground forces. Colonelcassad's new video is an RF claim of tactical advantage in Chasiv Yar, unverified by UA. DeepState (via ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) reports confirm RF advances in Donetsk Oblast. New Colonelcassad video provides specific unit identification (Anvar Detachment) and confirmation of ongoing ground operations. New БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video confirms RF ground force casualties. New Два майора video indicates RF efforts to transport defensive materials for ground force operations. New Operatyvnyi ZSU video confirms continued UA capability to effectively target RF ground forces. New Воин DV and «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» content reinforces RF ground force presence and morale efforts.)
Control Measures: RF Ministry of Justice added Navalny's book to extremist list. Новости Москвы reports that a list of companies that should relocate from Moscow is being developed, indicating internal economic or security reorganization, but not necessarily impacting military logistics. ASTRA reports Microsoft accused FSB hackers of attacking foreign embassies in Russia, indicating continued state-sponsored cyber activity. TASS reports new "H" airspace class for drones, indicating new state control over UAV operations. ASTRA reports a significant increase in intentional internet shutdowns in Russia in July, reflecting tightening information control. TASS and ASTRA report FSB detention of a Ukrainian agent collecting data on air defense facilities in Sevastopol, indicating continued counter-intelligence efforts. TASS reports a draft law in the State Duma regarding free schooling and language testing for migrant children, indicating social control measures. Север.Реалии reports Putin signed a law banning films "discrediting" traditional values, indicating increased internal censorship and control over information. Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration reports total surveillance, denunciations, and filtration in occupied territories, with tightened control, new filtration checks, restricted inter-city movement, and increased attention at checkpoints. ASTRA reports a Moscow court arrested the son of director Alexei Kiryushchenko in absentia on "terrorism" charges. Север.Реалии reports local authorities in Murmansk Oblast called for reporting "disrespect for the state" to Roskomnadzor. Север.Реалии reports the Ministry of Education recommended teachers monitor foreign schoolchildren and check them with the Ministry of Internal Affairs for "political intolerance," indicating increased internal surveillance and control over education. TASS reports Putin commented on Ukraine's anti-corruption laws, stating Ukraine has no sovereignty, and that corruption "simply overwhelms" Ukraine and cannot be defeated by external institutions like NABU. Операция Z reports Putin stated "Today's government in Ukraine is not based on the Constitution, the Constitution is clearly violated." Mash na Donbasse reports that police in the "DNR" found pornography and videos with radical ideas from three illegal migrants, indicating increased scrutiny and control over migrants. TASS reports that the Ministry of Labor proposes banning the hiring of visa migrants without knowledge of Russian in the service sector, specifically drivers, sellers, and medical workers. Новости Москвы reports public transportation in Moscow requires immediate payment upon entry. TASS reports the Ministry of Culture revoked the distribution license for the film "Sorry, Baby" due to unreliable information in documents, indicating continued censorship. TASS reports that the Prosecutor General's Office has demanded the seizure of 49 real estate properties and shares in enterprises obtained through criminal means from former Vologda mayor Yevgeny Shulepov and his family, indicating ongoing internal anti-corruption efforts within Russia.Colonelcassad reports the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers officially permitted TCCs to send mobilization summons via mail, previously requiring in-person delivery, indicating a significant change in Ukrainian mobilization procedures.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New TASS report confirms a significant internal anti-corruption action, reinforcing RF's efforts at internal control. Colonelcassad's report on mail-in summons is a significant change in UA conscription policy, now confirmed by RF source, indicating RF intelligence awareness of UA internal control measures.)
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Air/Missile/UAV: RF continues to demonstrate a high capacity for producing and deploying a large volume of strike UAVs (Shaheds, reactive Shaheds). Launched 72 drones overnight, of which 44 were shot down/suppressed. Zelenskyy reports over 5100 KABs, 3800 Shaheds, and 260 missiles used in July alone. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that 29,000 drones were launched by Russians in seven months of 2025 (11 times more than in 2024), along with 951 missiles. Continued KAB and tactical aviation operations, specifically targeting Sumy Oblast and now confirmed on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. MoD Russia shares new Supercam S350 UAV footage, demonstrating continued ISR and targeting capabilities. Operatyvnyi ZSU's new video confirms successful "Geran" strike on Bila Tserkva. RF is deploying booby-trapped drones ("ждун") near the front lines, posing a new threat to civilians and military personnel. TASS reports Business Insider's assessment that UA PVO may not cope with a new modification of Russian "Geran-3" drones equipped with a jet engine, indicating potential for enhanced RF UAV capabilities. MoD RF claims seven high-precision strikes with UAVs/missiles on Ukrainian enterprises and military airfields within a week. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports military intelligence indicates RF plans to produce ~40,000 Shaheds/Geran-2 and 24,000 "Gerbera" decoy UAVs in 2025. Colonelcassad shares video claiming LMUR (Light Multipurpose Unified Missile) strike on drone launch and control points. Воин DV shares video of Uragan MLRS in action. UA Air Force reports 6262 air targets destroyed in July, confirming the sheer volume of RF aerial attacks and UA efforts to counter them. Поддубный confirms Pentagon contract for AMRAAM missiles to Ukraine and allies, indicating RF assessment of UA air capabilities. TASS reports Saldo claiming RF forces struck a base in Ochakov where Ukrainian forces were preparing for a landing on Tendrovskaya and Kinburnskaya spits. Олексій Білошицький's video demonstrates aggressive and precise FPV drone and munition drop capabilities by Ukrainian forces, which RF would be observing. TASS reports Putin confirmed the first serial "Oreshnik" missile entered service and is being deployed to forces. TASS reports Putin expects "Oreshnik" delivery to Belarus by year-end, with location selection underway. ASTRA and РБК-Україна share videos of Putin and Lukashenka discussing "Oreshnik" production and deployment, confirming its serial production. MoD Russia shares photo messages celebrating 10 years of Russian Aerospace Forces, emphasizing "Air supremacy is ours," indicating strong confidence in aerial capabilities. STERNENKO shares video of UA EW efforts neutralizing Supercam drones, indicating continued active RF aerial reconnaissance. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 confirms "Oreshnik" complex has entered service in Russia. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides video of Putin and Lukashenka discussing "Oreshnik," used in UA counter-propaganda to highlight perceived RF weakness despite the threat. Colonelcassad has shared a video showing drone footage of a Ukrainian "Vampire" drone being brought down by a "Seraphim Detachment" from the "Rykari" regiment through a drop, highlighting RF counter-UAV capabilities and adaptation in drone-on-drone warfare. Fighterbomber has shared video of a large aircraft on approach to a disused runway, indicating RF transport aircraft capabilities. MoD Russia releases new drone footage showing "Artillerymen hit an ammunition depot and enemy firing points in South Donetsk direction," indicating continued strikes and focus on logistics. Colonelcassad shares drone footage of a 'Baba Yaga' drone, likely engaged in reconnaissance and potential strike missions against military vehicles and infrastructure in Donbas. Poddugny shares video of a HMMWV being burned, confirming RF targeting capabilities. STERNENKO reports GUR MO specialists shot down 3 more "Molniya-2" enemy drones. Сили оборони Півдня України reports 123rd Territorial Defense Brigade mobile fire group "Loki" destroyed an enemy kamikaze drone. Colonelcassad shares new drone footage showing a military convoy on a dirt road being targeted, with explosions and smoke visible, indicating continued aerial targeting capabilities. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report that RF attacked the railway station in Sumy with two UAVs, damaging a train with people on board, confirming civilian infrastructure targeting.WarGonzo shares a photo of an RF drone labeled "СКВОРЕЦ" (SKVORETS), indicating ongoing development and deployment of new drone types.Воин DV shares a video of an FPV drone "ambush" on a lone AFU cyclist, executed by scouts of the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group, demonstrating active reconnaissance and FPV strike capabilities.MoD Russia shares video of a Geran-2 drone and Lancet loitering munition attack on an AFU long-range UAV command post near Zhadovo (Sumy region), confirming targeted aerial strikes on UA C2/UAV infrastructure.Colonelcassad shares a new video showing an aerial strike on a white civilian vehicle moving along a dirt road in a rural area, tracked by a targeting reticle, indicating continued RF aerial surveillance and targeting capabilities.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New intel on planned drone production is significant, and LMUR/MLRS activity demonstrates continued precision/area fire capabilities. The confirmed production and deployment of "Oreshnik" ballistic missiles represents a significant escalation in RF long-range strike capabilities. UA EW activity confirms ongoing RF drone presence. Colonelcassad's new video confirms active aerial targeting. The Sumy railway attack confirms targeting of civilian infrastructure. New WarGonzo photo indicates new drone models. New Воин DV video confirms targeted FPV drone operations against UA personnel. New MoD Russia video confirms targeted aerial strikes on UA UAV infrastructure. New Colonelcassad video shows continued RF aerial surveillance and targeting capabilities, potentially on civilian vehicles.)
Ground Forces: Persistent offensive pressure on Pokrovsk axis, with unverified RF claims of proximity to Konstantinovka and control of fire over Ukrainian grouping. TASS reports RF claims of accelerated Ukrainian retreat near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns show bridge destruction near Konstantinovka, impacting UA logistics. НгП раZVедка (RF milblogger) has provided new photo messages confirming the destruction of a bridge in Konstantinovka, including "daytime objective control" footage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides new video of UA FPV drones disrupting RF logistics and personnel in Chasiv Yar, directly refuting RF claims of capture. Alex Parker Returns shares a recruitment video for Russian special forces, highlighting high salaries and intensive training. Alex Parker Returns' propaganda video of Russian flag in Chasiv Yar, despite its likely exaggeration, indicates RF intent to maintain ground presence there. Narodnaya militsiya DNR confirms active engagement by 56th Special Forces. New RF video footage (Операция Z, Kotsnews, Старше Эдды) shows successful strikes against UA vehicles and structures near Pokrovsk, indicating sustained ground force capabilities and effective targeting in the sector. Воин DV provides claimed footage of significant RF territorial gains (over 190 km², 9 settlements) in the South-Donetsk direction during July, showcasing an ongoing ground offensive capacity. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares footage of precision drone drops, indicating effective tactical drone operations. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА also provides new video footage of drone attacks on personnel in a wooded area, showing explosions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS claims RF forces destroyed part of an elite Ukrainian airborne assault regiment "Skala" transferred to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UA General Staff reports widespread ground clashes across multiple axes (Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Kherson, Sumy), confirming RF's ability to sustain operations across the front. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС captured RF POW indicates potential morale issues within some RF ground units. Colonelcassad and Военкор Котенок report Russian assault groups have infiltrated the outskirts of Sukhetsky near Rodinskoye. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares images of a damaged Russian VDV vehicle in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a captured Russian soldier surrendering. Олексій Білошицький's video shows Ukrainian FPV drone operators targeting enemy personnel in trenches and wooded areas, indicating active counter-ground operations. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides new video from 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade showing an RF infantryman reportedly self-detonating with a grenade upon hearing a drone approaching, indicating severe tactical pressure and psychological impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares photo messages illustrating "Будни солдата" (Soldier's everyday life), focusing on soldier morale (e.g., roasting a piglet), which is a component of ground force sustainment. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of a successful engagement by the 106th Battalion of the 63rd Brigade against an RF combatant, confirming RF ground units continue tactical assaults. Поддубный shares video of Putin stating Russian troops are advancing along the entire line of contact and positive activity is due to courage and heroism, serving as a morale booster for ground forces. Colonelcassad shares video of a large formation of black off-road motorcycles for distribution/deployment, indicating a significant logistical effort to enhance mobility for ground forces. WarGonzo shares video of a D-20 howitzer crew from the "Somali" battalion, indicating continued heavy artillery support for ground operations. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides a video of a soldier claiming to have returned from Ukrainian captivity and then being sent to the front in Donetsk, indicating RF efforts to force former POWs back into combat. Сили оборони Півдня України provides video of UA operations in Zaporizhzhia showing active defense against enemy ground positions. Colonelcassad's latest videos from Vovchansk show RF ground operations against mortar positions and personnel locations. STERNENKO has provided new video from Kursk Oblast showing active combat and destruction of enemy forces by UA. Воин DV has provided new video footage from aerial reconnaissance showing individuals in military attire moving through a wooded area, engaging in an assault, with explosions on positions described as 'dugouts', indicating active combat operations and direct targeting of UA ground forces. WarGonzo shares video of two individuals in tactical gear in a field, discussing previous military conflicts (Chechnya, Syria, Ukraine), which is RF propaganda but indicates continued discussion/focus on ground operations. Военкор Котенок shares photo messages of five Latin American mercenaries allegedly destroyed in the SVO zone, highlighting RF claims of foreign fighter losses for Ukraine. Colonelcassad reports a Russian soldier blew up a Ukrainian strongpoint with a TM-62M anti-tank mine near Siversk, demonstrating effective use of demolitions. Kadyrov_95 shares video showcasing extensive military training exercises featuring special forces, amphibious operations, airborne assaults, and military vehicles at the Russian Special Forces University in Gudermes, indicating continued investment in elite ground forces capabilities. Два майора shares a recruitment poster for the Military Commissariat of Leninsky and Kirovsky districts of Rostov-on-Don, inviting volunteers to sign contracts with the RF Ministry of Defense, indicating ongoing recruitment efforts for ground forces. Colonelcassad shares new video footage from Chasiv Yar, with the caption "Высота Часова Яра. Теперь у нас преимущество" (Height of Chasiv Yar. Now we have the advantage), claiming RF forces have secured a dominant position in the area. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Russians have advanced in Donetsk Oblast, specifically in Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Zelene Hay, and near Oleksiivka and Andriyivka-Klevtseve, citing DeepState. Colonelcassad shares drone footage of a 'cleaning' operation in a buffer zone, showing explosions and impacts in a wooded area, with the caption "Отряд "Анвар" зачищает буферную зону от украинских боевиков," indicating specific unit involvement (Anvar Detachment) and ongoing ground offensive actions.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video footage of a deceased RF soldier in camouflage, indicating recent combat fatalities in areas of engagement, confirming UA targeting capabilities against RF ground forces.Два майора shares video of a truck heavily laden with barbed wire and other defensive materials, covered in a cage-like structure, driving along a road, indicating transport of materials for fortifications or obstacles, likely for RF ground forces.Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of drone footage from 2nd Mountain Assault Battalion, showing engagements with enemy positions, including armored vehicles (BMPs) and likely mortar positions, indicating continued UA capability to effectively target RF ground forces.Воин DV celebrates the 11th Guards Air Assault Brigade (Ulan-Ude)'s birthday, indicating the continued presence and operational status of this unit.«Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» shares a video featuring an RF soldier, emphasizing their choice of military life and dedication, serving as a morale-boosting piece for ground forces.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of Russian paratroopers demonstrating mechanical skills and vehicle customization in the field, indicating adaptability and ongoing sustainment of ground units.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - noting the latest RF claim of UA confirmation of retreat is unverified and contradictory to public UA statements. New UA video refutation of Chasiv Yar is significant. The "bears" videos from «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» are propaganda, not actual dispositions, but the tactical training footage from the same source is relevant. Colonelcassad's latest is a propaganda/morale piece. New Operatsiya Z update reinforces RF claims on Chasiv Yar but remains unverified. New RF footage confirms active engagements and targeting of UA assets in Pokrovsk. Воин DV video confirms RF claims of territorial gains, though verification is ongoing. TASS claim about Skala regiment is unverified. Reports of advances into Sukhetsky consistent with ongoing Pokrovsk pressure. Colonelcassad's claim of 629 km² liberated in July is a significant propaganda assertion. Nikolaevsky Vanek's video shows close quarters combat, indicating RF ground units are still attempting tactical advances. The new info reinforces RF's commitment to ground offensives, supported by new equipment and continued propaganda. The recruitment poster from Два майора indicates continued efforts to replenish ground forces. Colonelcassad's new video is an RF claim of tactical advantage in Chasiv Yar, unverified by UA. DeepState (via ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) reports confirm RF advances in Donetsk Oblast. New Colonelcassad video provides specific unit identification (Anvar Detachment) and confirmation of ongoing ground operations. New БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video confirms RF ground force casualties. New Два майора video indicates RF efforts to transport defensive materials for ground force operations. New Operatyvnyi ZSU video confirms continued UA capability to effectively target RF ground forces. New Воин DV and «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» content reinforces RF ground force presence and morale efforts. New Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video highlights RF ground unit adaptability.)
Intentions: RF intentions remain consistent: secure the full occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, inflict heavy casualties on Ukrainian forces, degrade Ukraine's military and civilian infrastructure, and destabilize the Ukrainian government and society. The increased drone attacks and continued claims of territorial gains aim to demoralize the Ukrainian population and undermine international support. RF appears committed to exploiting any perceived Ukrainian vulnerabilities, particularly in the Donetsk region, to achieve a decisive breakthrough, with Konstantinovka as a key objective, including disrupting its logistical links (bridge destruction). The intensified air campaign aims to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses and disrupt logistical flows and command centers. The shift to reactive Shaheds, while constrained by cost, indicates an adaptation to challenge UA air defense systems. The claimed detention of a UA agent in Sevastopol indicates continued RF counter-intelligence efforts in occupied territories. The deployment of booby-trapped drones aims to inflict casualties and psychological impact on both military and civilian populations. The signing of the law banning films "discrediting" traditional values indicates a broader intent to control internal narratives and reinforce state ideology. The alleged "Chronology of changes in the LBS" video from Воин DV clearly demonstrates an RF intention to project sustained offensive momentum and territorial gains, particularly in the Donetsk direction. The claim of a new, more advanced "Geran-3" suggests an intention to further overwhelm UA air defenses. MoD RF claims of striking Ukrainian military enterprises and airfields indicate an intention to degrade Ukraine's military-industrial complex. Operatyvnyi ZSU's intel report on RF planned drone production (40,000 Shaheds/Geran-2 and 24,000 decoys in 2025) confirms an intention for prolonged, high-intensity aerial warfare. Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration assessment of occupied territories confirms RF intention for total surveillance, information control, and population filtration, aiming to suppress dissent and solidify control. RF media reports of tension with Azerbaijan likely intended to project RF influence in the Caucasus. TASS reports on preferential housing rentals for young families with children indicates an intention to address social issues and boost demographics. TASS reports Saldo claiming RF forces struck a base in Ochakov where Ukrainian forces were preparing for a landing on Tendrovskaya and Kinburnskaya spits, indicating RF intention to preempt UA amphibious operations. Putin's latest statements (TASS) reiterate the unchanged objectives for Ukraine from June 2024, focusing on "eradicating the causes of the crisis" and ensuring Russia's security, while projecting an image of being ready to "wait" for Kyiv to be ready to negotiate, but on RF's terms. The confirmation of "Oreshnik" missile production and deployment, and its potential transfer to Belarus, signals an intent to project strategic long-range strike capability and a hardening of RF's military-political alignment with Belarus. Lukashenka's reported statement about Russia being interested in an "air truce" (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна) suggests an intent to project a facade of de-escalation while pursuing military objectives. TASS reports Putin's statements on Ukraine's sovereignty and corruption reinforce RF's intent to delegitimize the Ukrainian government. Lukashenka's statement (ASTRA) that "through a month, a month and a half, two, the Russians will capture everything," and mentioning "Kramatorsk," is a significant public declaration of impending, rapid RF territorial gains. Alex Parker Returns' statement that "pathological traitor" Putin requested an "air truce" (from Ukrainians) and that Ukrainians will "happily agree and deprive the Russian Armed Forces of their only strategic advantage" indicates RF intent to use this as a propaganda point to criticize internal RF leadership. Operatsiya Z photo message about Ukraine's goal to end the war this year (referencing MFA Sibiga) is likely intended to frame UA as unrealistic or desperate. RF's (Операция Z) focus on Ukrainian economic issues ("prices almost caught up with EU") and political narratives ("post-Soviet country") indicate an intention to discredit Ukraine's progress and viability as an independent state. The Ministry of Labor's proposal to ban the hiring of visa migrants without Russian language knowledge in the service sector indicates an intent to increase social control and possibly address internal labor market issues, which can indirectly support military goals by maintaining social stability. Kotsnews video of a man claiming his niece is a prisoner in Cherkasy region indicates RF's intent to use individual cases for propaganda, potentially for prisoner exchanges or to highlight perceived UA mistreatment. TASS reports that the Prosecutor General's Office has demanded the seizure of 49 real estate properties and shares in enterprises obtained through criminal means from former Vologda mayor Yevgeny Shulepov and his family, indicating an intention to project internal strength and rule of law.Операция Z shares a Reuters report about a potential RF response to Trump's attempts to stop India's purchases of Russian oil, suggesting Russia could shut down the CPC oil pipeline, which highlights RF's intent to use economic leverage.TASS reports Lavrov stating that discussions on Ukrainian issues between Moscow and Washington since the beginning of the year are "very useful and yield results," implying an intent to pursue diplomatic channels while maintaining military pressure. Lavrov's statement about RF proposing working groups on political and military issues with Ukraine indicates an intention to open formal negotiation tracks.Rybar shares a photo message about a "fund for so-called Ukraine," with negative connotations, indicating RF intent to delegitimize international support for Ukraine.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New intel from TASS regarding internal corruption and from Операция Z on economic leverage further refine understanding of RF intentions. Lavrov's recent statements highlight a continued dual-track approach of military pressure and diplomatic overtures. New Rybar message confirms RF intent to delegitimize support for Ukraine.)
Courses of Action (Enemy COAs):
COA 1: Sustained High-Intensity Offensive in Donetsk and Kharkhiv with Integrated Air and EW Suppression. RF will sustain and potentially intensify ground operations on the Pokrovsk axis, with Konstantinovka remaining a primary objective. Efforts to disrupt UA logistics, including bridge destruction, will continue. This will be heavily supported by a sustained, high-volume aerial campaign of drones (Shaheds, "Molniya-2," decoys, "Skvorets"), KABs, and potentially further "Oreshnik" missile strikes against critical infrastructure and rear areas. RF EW systems, particularly 'Pole-21M' and Shipovnik-Aero, will remain active in key sectors (e.g., Robotyne, Kharkiv) to suppress UA drone ISR and FPV strike capabilities. RF will seek to maintain pressure across multiple secondary axes (Kharkiv (Vovchansk, Lyptsi), Kupyansk, Siversk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Sumy) to fix Ukrainian reserves. The recruitment poster from Два майора indicates sustained efforts to recruit personnel for ground operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
COA 2: Broadening of Aerial Campaign with Targeted Civilian Infrastructure Strikes and Enhanced Drone Warfare. RF will continue to utilize its increasing drone and missile production capacity to conduct multi-vector, saturation attacks across various Ukrainian oblasts, including further strikes on civilian transportation infrastructure (e.g., railway hubs like Sumy), industrial sites (e.g., Bila Tserkva), and potentially C2/UAV infrastructure (e.g., Zhadovo) to degrade morale, disrupt logistics, and force continued expenditure of UA air defense assets. Expect continued use of "ждун" booby-trapped drones in forward areas. The increasing focus on new drone variants ("Skvorets") and direct targeting of UA drone C2 (Zhadovo) indicates a sophisticated adaptation in drone warfare aimed at overwhelming and countering UA capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
COA 3: Intensified Information Warfare Amplification with Social Engineering and Diplomatic Maneuvering. RF will escalate its information operations, emphasizing claimed territorial gains, portraying UA as corrupt and illegitimate, and attempting to sow discord between Ukraine and its allies. They will leverage both overt state media and covert milblogger networks to shape narratives and influence both domestic and international audiences. This will include leveraging statements from figures like Trump (e.g., casualty figures, blaming Biden for the war) to sow doubt and influence Western public opinion. Concurrently, RF will maintain diplomatic signaling to the US and Ukraine, proposing working groups and expressing openness to dialogue, while maintaining its maximalist peace conditions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
COA 4: Internal Consolidation and Resource Management. RF will continue efforts to consolidate internal control, manage economic pressures (including state acquisition of key industries), and secure resource supply, while maintaining recruitment efforts to sustain ground force strength. New measures regarding mobilization summons via mail will be fully implemented. This includes further anti-corruption efforts and the relocation of companies from Moscow to optimize internal resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations
Continued Drone Saturation: The launch of 72 drones in a single night continues to confirm RF's strategy of overwhelming UA air defenses through sheer volume, as highlighted by the previously reported 1378% increase in drone launches. Zelenskyy's report on July drone and missile usage (over 5100 KABs, 3800 Shaheds) confirms this sustained, high-volume approach. Operatyvnyi ZSU's report that 29,000 drones have been launched in the first seven months of 2025 (11 times more than 2024) indicates a significant strategic increase in drone warfare. TASS reports on the potential for "Geran-3" with a jet engine to challenge UA PVO, indicating an ongoing RF adaptation in UAV technology. Operatyvnyi ZSU's report on planned RF drone production (40,000 Shaheds/Geran-2 and 24,000 decoys in 2025) confirms an intention for sustained, high-volume drone attacks. UA Air Force reports over 6200 air targets destroyed in July, confirming the sheer volume of RF aerial attacks. STERNENKO shares video of UA EW efforts neutralizing Supercam drones, indicating continued active RF aerial reconnaissance. Colonelcassad has shared a video showing drone footage of a Ukrainian "Vampire" drone being brought down by a "Seraphim Detachment" from the "Rykari" regiment through a drop, highlighting RF counter-UAV capabilities and adaptation in drone-on-drone warfare. MoD Russia releases new drone footage showing "Artillerymen hit an ammunition depot and enemy firing points in South Donetsk direction," indicating continued strikes and focus on logistics. Colonelcassad shares drone footage of a 'Baba Yaga' drone, likely engaged in reconnaissance and potential strike missions against military vehicles and infrastructure in Donbas. STERNENKO reports GUR MO specialists shot down 3 more "Molniya-2" enemy drones, indicating a new RF drone type and UA adaptation to counter it. WarGonzo shares a photo of an RF drone labeled "СКВОРЕЦ" (SKVORETS), indicating ongoing development and deployment of new drone types.MoD Russia shares video of a Geran-2 drone and Lancet loitering munition attack on an AFU long-range UAV command post near Zhadovo (Sumy region), demonstrating a tactical adaptation to target UA C2/UAV infrastructure directly.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New WarGonzo photo indicates new drone models in deployment, suggesting ongoing adaptation. New MoD Russia video demonstrates direct targeting of UA UAV infrastructure, highlighting an adaptation in precision strikes.)
Persistence in Contested Areas: The renewed, large-scale ground assault and continued FPV drone engagements in Chasiv Yar (with significant casualties reported by UA) despite previous RF claims of "liberation" indicates a continued commitment to seize or solidify control over highly contested strategic points. The inclusion of female assault troops, if confirmed, is a notable, albeit potentially opportunistic, tactic. UA General Staff reports confirm continued clashes in Chasiv Yar, Lyman, Siversk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk directions, reinforcing RF persistence. Alex Parker Returns' claim of "liberated" Vovchansk's right bank, while likely propaganda, indicates RF adaptation to focus on urban segments. Colonelcassad's report of infiltration into Sukhetsky near Rodinskoye indicates a tactical adaptation to outflank or bypass direct defensive lines in the Pokrovsk axis. Putin's direct denial of Ukrainian control over Chasiv Yar indicates a sustained RF commitment to this contested area. Lukashenka's statement (ASTRA) that "through a month, a month and a half, two, the Russians will capture everything," and mentioning "Kramatorsk," is a significant public declaration of impending, rapid RF territorial gains. Colonelcassad's latest video repeats the claim of RF advances on the left bank of Vovchansk by the 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 44th Army Corps, aiming to liberate the "remaining new part of the city." TASS claims to publish footage of "cleansing" the right bank of Vovchansk, supporting Alex Parker Returns' claim of RF advances in the area and indicating continued RF efforts to assert control in disputed territories. Colonelcassad shares new video footage from Chasiv Yar, with the caption "Высота Часова Яра. Теперь у нас преимущество" (Height of Chasiv Yar. Now we have the advantage), claiming RF forces have secured a dominant position in the area. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Russians have advanced in Donetsk Oblast, specifically in Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Zelene Hay, and near Oleksiivka and Andriyivka-Klevtseve, citing DeepState, confirming ongoing RF ground advances in multiple contested areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New Colonelcassad video indicates a continued RF adaptation to assert tactical advantage in Chasiv Yar. DeepState (via ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) reports confirm RF advances in multiple contested areas, underscoring this adaptation.)
Targeting of Secondary Urban Centers: The confirmed strike on Bila Tserkva (Kyiv Oblast) with "Gerans" indicates that RF's aerial campaign extends beyond primary targets like Kyiv to other regional centers, likely aimed at disrupting logistics and spreading air defense assets. KABs are now also confirmed inbound for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. MoD RF claims strikes on Ukrainian enterprises and military airfields across various regions within the last week, reinforcing a broader targeting strategy. RF aviation confirmed airstrikes in Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts, confirming expanded targeting. TASS reports Saldo claiming RF forces struck a base in Ochakov where Ukrainian forces were preparing for a landing on Tendrovskaya and Kinburnskaya spits, indicating adaptation to pre-emptively target UA training/staging areas. New KAB launches have been reported on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm RF UAV strikes on the railway station in Sumy, damaging a passenger train, indicating a clear adaptation to target civilian transportation infrastructure.🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports RF attacked Nikopolshchyna with FPV drones and artillery, indicating sustained targeting of civilian areas beyond major cities.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New information on Sumy railway station and Nikopolshchyna attacks confirms a clear adaptation towards targeting civilian infrastructure and urban areas to disrupt logistics and exert pressure.)
Narrowing Focus on Konstantinovka and Logistics Interdiction: The unverified RF claim of being "just over a kilometer" from Konstantinovka and having the Ukrainian grouping under "dense fire control" suggests a renewed and very close focus on this key objective, potentially indicating tactical adaptations to achieve a breakthrough. The destruction of a bridge near Konstantinovka signals a tactical shift to isolate the objective. НгП раZVедка (RF milblogger) has provided new photo messages confirming the destruction of a bridge in Konstantinovka, including "daytime objective control" footage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's video from Rodinskoye noting "front is close" to Krasnoarmeysk further supports this. Военкор Котенок's latest report reiterates the proximity to Konstantinovka, confirming this tactical focus. Военкор Котенок provides new video footage of a bridge destruction near Konstantinovka, with moment of impact and aftermath captured by a reconnaissance drone. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
Adaptation to Airspace Control: Establishment of new "H" airspace class for drones in Russia indicates RF's ongoing adaptation and control of UAV operations within its own territory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Increased EW Deployment (Robotyne): The confirmed deployment of Shipovnik-Aero EW complex in Robotyne sector indicates an adaptation to degrade UA drone capabilities, affecting ISR and FPV strike missions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Use of TOS-2 Systems (Avdiivka): First operational deployment of TOS-2 thermobaric systems in Avdiivka sector signals an escalation in firepower against entrenched positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Deployment of Booby-Trapped Drones: The confirmed civilian casualty near Siversk from a remotely detonated "ждун" drone marks a new, insidious tactic aimed at denying areas and inflicting casualties on unsuspecting individuals, including civilians. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Internal Recruitment Incentives: Alex Parker Returns' recruitment video for "Vityaz" special forces, highlighting 5.5 million rubles for the first year, confirms a significant adaptation in recruitment strategy to attract and retain high-quality personnel through financial incentives. Kadyrov_95 shares video showcasing extensive military training exercises featuring special forces, amphibious operations, airborne assaults, and military vehicles at the Russian Special Forces University in Gudermes, indicating continued investment in elite force training. The recruitment poster from Два майора indicates sustained efforts to recruit personnel for ground operations, a continued adaptation to maintain force strength. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Targeting of Military-Industrial Complex: MoD RF claims of striking "Ukrainian enterprises" suggests a tactical adaptation to hit military production capabilities directly. Операция Z claims RF drones destroyed AFU warehouses and UAV equipment near Mirnograd. Colonelcassad shares video claiming LMUR strike on drone launch/control points, indicating targeted strikes against UA drone infrastructure. MoD Russia shares video of a Geran-2 drone and Lancet loitering munition attack on an AFU long-range UAV command post near Zhadovo (Sumy region), confirming targeted aerial strikes on UA C2/UAV infrastructure, indicating a tactical adaptation to specifically target UA command and drone capabilities.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New MoD Russia video confirms adapted targeting of UA UAV infrastructure.)
Tightened Control in Occupied Territories: Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration assessment reports new filtration checks, restricted movement, and increased surveillance in occupied areas, indicating RF adaptations to control population. Север.Реалии reports the Ministry of Education recommended teachers monitor foreign schoolchildren and check them with the Ministry of Internal Affairs for "political intolerance," indicating an adaptation in social control mechanisms within Russia proper. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Adaptation in Military Logistics:Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of Russian paratroopers demonstrating mechanical skills and vehicle customization in the field, indicating an adaptation by RF ground units to maintain and optimize their vehicles and equipment in austere conditions.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video confirms adaptation in field logistics and maintenance for RF ground forces.)
2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status
RF Logistics:
Air/Drone Supply: High rate of UAV/missile launches (72 drones overnight, 29,000 in 7 months of 2025) and reported industrial-scale production (40,000 Shaheds/Geran-2 and 24,000 decoys planned for 2025) suggests robust, albeit strained, supply chains for these weapon systems. Confirmation of "Oreshnik" ballistic missile serial production indicates a functional, high-end missile production capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Ground Logistics: Sustained ground offensives across multiple axes (Pokrovsk, Kharkiv, Siversk, etc.) indicate sufficient, though likely challenged, supply of personnel, ammunition, and fuel. The deployment of a large formation of black off-road motorcycles (Colonelcassad) suggests efforts to improve mobility and rapid supply for ground forces. Presence of multiple portable generators near the front (Два майора) indicates efforts to maintain local power for operations. Military training exercises (Kadyrov_95) suggest continued sustainment of training facilities and resources for new personnel. Kotsnews shares photo messages depicting piles of logs marked with morale and nationalistic slogans, indicating efforts to bolster material support and morale from rear areas to the front line, which implicitly reflects on RF ground force sustainment and broader national support.Два майора shares video of a truck heavily laden with barbed wire and other defensive materials, covered in a cage-like structure, driving along a road, indicating transport of materials for fortifications or obstacles, likely for RF ground forces.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of Russian paratroopers demonstrating mechanical skills and vehicle customization in the field, which implies ongoing sustainment efforts for ground units.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New Kotsnews information highlights civilian/rear area material support efforts, confirming a broader sustainment base. New Два майора video indicates direct efforts to transport defensive materials. New Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video highlights ongoing field sustainment efforts.)
Economic Impact: Reports of a fourth major Russian car manufacturer reducing its work week and increased fuel costs (9% in 2025) indicate economic strain, but likely not directly impacting front-line military logistics yet. Bloomberg reports Russian oil tankers stuck off India due to sanctions, indicating challenges to oil exports and revenue. TASS reports that RF (Rosimushchestvo) became the main shareholder of PJSC Yuzhuralzoloto GK (South Ural Gold Company) as of July 15, 2025, according to RAS reporting, indicating state efforts to consolidate control over key economic assets to ensure resource availability.Оперативний ЗСУ reports that KamAZ's net loss in the first half of the year was 20.8 billion rubles, indicating significant economic losses for a major Russian industrial enterprise, which could impact military vehicle production and logistics in the long term.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New TASS report confirms state efforts to secure resource base. New Operatyvnyi ZSU report highlights economic stress on a key industrial producer, which impacts military logistics indirectly.)
UA Logistics:
Air Defense Munitions: Sustained high-volume RF aerial attacks (over 6200 air targets destroyed in July, 44 drones shot down/suppressed overnight) indicate continued high expenditure of UA air defense munitions. Pentagon contract for AMRAAM missiles (until 2031) and German Patriot transfers indicate ongoing international efforts to resupply and bolster UA air defense capabilities, acknowledging the strain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Ground Supply: Ukrainian forces are engaged in heavy combat across multiple sectors. Reports of destroyed military vehicles near Pokrovsk (Оперативний ЗСУ, Kotsnews, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦) indicate ongoing material losses. Construction of three-tiered defensive lines from Kharkiv to Zaporizhzhia indicates significant resource allocation to fortification efforts. Efforts to provide aid to Kharkiv defenders (Oleg Synyehubov) confirm ongoing local support. STERNENKO shares video of a destroyed or heavily damaged Ukrainian military vehicle, possibly a truck or armored personnel carrier, confirming ongoing material losses and therefore a need for sustained supply.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New STERNENKO video confirms ongoing material losses for UA, reinforcing supply requirements.)
Civilian Infrastructure: RF strikes on civilian infrastructure (Kyiv, Bila Tserkva, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy railway station) aim to disrupt logistics and reduce resilience. Efforts to maintain civilian services in Kryvyi Rih (trolleybuses with generators, infrastructure upgrades by Oleksandr Vilkul) highlight challenges and adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Humanitarian: Reports of civilian casualties and displacement (Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia) indicate ongoing humanitarian demands. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Internal Governance/Anti-Corruption: Ongoing investigations into illegal sand extraction (Kirovohrad), illegal land registration, and corruption in conscription avoidance (Kryvyi Rih) indicate internal efforts to improve governance and resource management, which indirectly affects national sustainment. New report from Офіс Генерального прокурора on embezzlement and abuse of power in Kirovohrad Oblast further highlights ongoing internal issues that could impact efficient resource allocation.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New information reinforces ongoing internal efforts to improve governance and resource management.)
Mobilization Logistics: The shift to mail-in mobilization summons (Colonelcassad) indicates an adaptation in UA mobilization logistics to potentially increase efficiency or reach. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness
RF C2:
Coordinated Attacks: The scale and multi-vector nature of drone and missile attacks, coupled with coordinated ground offensives across multiple axes, suggest effective RF C2 in orchestrating complex operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Strategic Messaging: Putin's direct statements regarding "Oreshnik" deployment and peace conditions, and Lukashenka's aligned messaging, indicate centralized and effective strategic communication and control over the narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Internal Control: Increased internal censorship (Navalny's book, films "discrediting" traditional values, internet shutdowns) and tightening control over migrants indicate a robust, albeit repressive, internal C2 mechanism to manage dissent and maintain social order, essential for sustaining the conflict effort. The demand by the Prosecutor General's Office to seize assets from a former mayor in Vologda (TASS) indicates a strong, centralized anti-corruption effort, suggesting a focus on internal discipline and control.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New TASS report reinforces centralized internal control.)
Diplomatic C2: Lavrov's recent statements regarding discussions with Washington and proposals for working groups with Ukraine indicate a coordinated diplomatic C2 effort to shape international perceptions and potentially open negotiation channels. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
UA C2:
Air Defense Coordination: The successful interception rate (61% of drones, 6262 air targets in July) against high-volume RF attacks demonstrates effective UA air defense C2, requiring rapid decision-making and asset allocation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Front-Line Coordination: UA General Staff reports widespread, active clashes, suggesting decentralized but coordinated defense across the extended front. The successful repulsion of RF assaults in Siversk (10th OGShBr) and Kherson direction indicate effective local C2. Оперативний ЗСУ shares new video footage of drone operations from the 2nd Mountain Assault Battalion, indicating effective tactical C2 at the unit level, enabling drone-supported engagements against enemy positions.Оперативний ЗСУ shares a photo message about "Assistance and support for brothers-in-arms," suggesting continued efforts to maintain unit cohesion and support C2 at the tactical level.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New Operatyvnyi ZSU video confirms effective tactical C2 for UA drone operations. New Operatyvnyi ZSU message indicates C2 support for unit cohesion.)
Counter-Intelligence Successes: SBU detention of an FSB agent in Odesa demonstrates effective counter-intelligence C2 in protecting national security interests. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Internal Governance: Ongoing investigations into corruption (Kirovohrad, Kryvyi Rih) and legal actions against collaborators/propagandists (Lviv) reflect efforts to maintain rule of law and internal stability, critical for C2 effectiveness. The decision to polygraph BEB Director candidate (РБК-Україна) indicates an effort to ensure transparency and integrity in key institutions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Challenges: The TCC vehicle incident in Kharkiv (Colonelcassad) and the controversial mayor's decision in Pereyaslav (Оперативний ЗСУ) highlight potential local C2 challenges or friction points related to mobilization and administrative decisions. Colonelcassad's report on the official change allowing mail-in summons from TCCs indicates a centralized policy change in UA mobilization, which will impact local level C2 and operations.(CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Colonelcassad's report highlights a significant, centrally-directed change in UA mobilization, impacting local C2 and public perception.)
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:
Air Defense: Under significant and sustained pressure from high-volume RF missile and drone attacks. The continued high interception rates indicate resilience but also high munition expenditure. International aid (AMRAAM, Patriot systems) is crucial for maintaining readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Ground Forces: Engaged in heavy defensive operations across multiple axes, particularly Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Siversk, and Kharkiv. Elements of the 42nd Mechanized Brigade are engaged in defensive operations in Kharkiv. UA forces are inflicting casualties on RF, as seen in Chasiv Yar, Siversk (motorcycles), and Mykolaiv Oblast (enemy combatants). The construction of three-tiered defensive lines indicates a strategic focus on layered defense. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video footage of a deceased RF soldier in camouflage, confirming UA forces are inflicting casualties on RF ground forces.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video confirms UA forces are inflicting casualties on RF ground forces.)
Specialized Units: The 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade (Siversk) and 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade (Chasiv Yar FPV drones on fiber optics) demonstrate effective tactical operations. The 3rd Separate Assault Brigade's drone units show advanced capabilities against RF artillery, communication, and transport. The 106th Battalion of the 63rd Brigade shows effective engagement in Mykolaiv Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ shares new video footage of drone operations from the 2nd Mountain Assault Battalion, demonstrating continued effective tactical operations by UA specialized units.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New Operatyvnyi ZSU video confirms continued effective tactical operations by UA specialized units.)
Readiness: High combat tempo indicates maintained readiness, but sustained losses and pressure across the front suggest increasing strain on personnel and resources. Efforts to force former POWs back into combat by RF (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 video) suggest RF is facing personnel issues, providing some relief to UA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:
Successes:
High rate of RF drone/missile interception (44/72 overnight drones, 61% success rate).
Repulsion of enemy assaults in Siversk (10th OGShBr destroyed 13 motorcycles) and Kherson direction.
Effective FPV drone operations in Chasiv Yar (30th Separate Mechanized Brigade) destroying RF logistics/equipment.
Successful neutralization of RF combatants in Mykolaiv Oblast (106th Battalion, 63rd Brigade).
Successful counter-intelligence operation in Odesa (SBU detained FSB agent).
3rd Separate Assault Brigade's drone units successfully targeting RF artillery, communication, and transport.
GUR MO specialists shot down 3 more "Molniya-2" enemy drones.
123rd Territorial Defense Brigade mobile fire group "Loki" destroyed an enemy kamikaze drone.
Metropolitan Epiphanius awarding the Separate Presidential Brigade with the Order of George the Victorious, boosting morale.
Оперативний ЗСУ shares new video footage of drone operations from the 2nd Mountain Assault Battalion, demonstrating successful engagements against enemy positions, including armored vehicles (BMPs) and likely mortar positions.
STERNENKO shares video of a destroyed or heavily damaged military vehicle with a Ukrainian emblem, implying a successful engagement against enemy forces by UA.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New Operatyvnyi ZSU video demonstrates successful UA tactical engagements. New STERNENKO video provides further evidence of successful engagements against enemy assets.)
Setbacks:
Continued high civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from RF strikes, particularly in Kyiv (31 fatalities) and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (children trapped).
Damage to civilian infrastructure in Sumy (railway station, passenger train).
RF claims of advances in Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Zelene Hay, Oleksiivka, Andriyivka-Klevtseve) and Sukhetsky (Pokrovsk axis), though UA counter-claims of repulsed assaults persist.
Civilian fatality from booby-trapped RF drone near Siversk, indicating a new and concerning threat.
Damage/destruction of Ukrainian military vehicles near Pokrovsk.
TASS reports two fatalities from a Ukrainian drone attack in Belgorod Oblast, indicating UA strikes causing casualties in RF territory.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New TASS report confirms UA strikes resulting in casualties in RF territory.)
Resource Requirements and Constraints:
Air Defense: Continued high demand for air defense systems and munitions, especially given RF's high-volume and evolving drone tactics (reactive Shaheds, potential Geran-3). The delivery of AMRAAM and Patriot systems is critical. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Munitions and Equipment: Ongoing heavy combat across multiple sectors necessitates a continuous supply of artillery shells, small arms ammunition, and replacement for damaged vehicles. The construction of defensive lines requires significant engineering resources. STERNENKO shares video of a destroyed or heavily damaged Ukrainian military vehicle, confirming ongoing material losses and therefore a need for sustained supply of replacement equipment.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New STERNENKO video confirms ongoing material losses for UA, reinforcing supply requirements.)
Personnel: High combat tempo and casualties imply a continuous need for trained personnel and medical support. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» shares a photo message regarding additional 14 days of leave for military personnel, indicating a need for personnel welfare and rotation management.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New message from 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade highlights personnel management needs.)
EW and Counter-Drone: Increasing RF EW capabilities and drone swarms require enhanced UA EW and counter-drone systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Financial/Economic: Despite international financial aid, internal corruption investigations (Kirovohrad, Kryvyi Rih) indicate a need for improved financial oversight and efficient resource allocation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:
RF Narratives:
Territorial Gains: Persistent claims of "liberation" (Chasiv Yar, Vovchansk's right bank), accelerated Ukrainian retreat near Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk, and claimed 190 km² / 9 settlements liberated in July by "Vostok" group.
Ukrainian Weakness/Illegitimacy: Putin's statements about Ukraine's leadership being "not very informed" on Chasiv Yar, and the Ukrainian government's lack of sovereignty due to corruption, are central to this narrative. Lukashenka's prophecy of impending, rapid RF capture of "everything," including Kramatorsk, aims to demoralize and project RF strength. Claims of "panic" in Kherson. Basurin o Glavnom shares a photo message stating "Ukraine seeks to 'dissolve' its sovereignty in a supranational structure," reinforcing the narrative of Ukraine's loss of autonomy.Rybar shares a photo message about a "fund for so-called Ukraine," with negative connotations, aiming to delegitimize international support.
Justification for War: Putin's reiteration of June 2024 peace conditions and the goal to "eradicate the causes of the crisis in Ukraine and ensure Russia's security." Statement "Russia does not seize territories during the SVO, but returns its own."
Western Weakness/Interference: Narrative around Trump's efforts to end the war, allegations of US interference in Russian oil trade with India, and "Sanction War 2.0." Allegations of Microsoft accusing FSB hackers attacking foreign embassies may be used to frame Russia as a victim or powerful cyber actor. The alleged US-UK nuclear delivery is likely a deliberate disinformation piece to sow fear. Claims of Ukrainian agents/saboteurs in RF territory (Sevastopol). Lavrov's statements implying US acknowledgement of RF grievances in Ukraine (TASS) aim to shift blame and legitimize RF actions. Trump's contested casualty figures are used for propaganda by RF.
Internal Strength/Morale: Recruitment campaigns (Vityaz, Rostov-on-Don), focus on veteran support programs, celebration of military holidays (Aerospace Forces Day, Logistics Support Day, WWI Remembrance Day), "Soldier's everyday life" photos (Два майора, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺), and general Putin-Lukashenka unity messaging. Consolidation of economic assets (Yuzhuralzoloto) to project stability. Anti-corruption efforts (Vologda mayor) to project rule of law. The 11th Guards Air Assault Brigade (Ulan-Ude)'s birthday celebration serves as a morale booster. «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» video emphasizes military virtues to boost morale.
Internal Control: New laws on migrant schooling/language testing, banning films "discrediting" traditional values, and increased internet shutdowns indicate tight control over internal information.
Dehumanization: Colonelcassad's "В краю "нерабов"" photo messages aim to dehumanize Ukrainians.
Discrediting Ukrainian-Polish Relations: RF propaganda highlighting a Ukrainian citizen's drug arrest in Poland, linking it to Mexico, aims to portray Ukrainians negatively and sow discord with Poland.
UA Counter-Narratives:
Denial of RF Gains: Continued reporting of fierce combat and repelled assaults in Chasiv Yar and other contested areas directly contradicts RF claims of "liberation."
RF Casualties/Morale: Reports of captured RF POWs stating low morale, alleged self-detonation by RF infantrymen, and the claim that former RF POWs are immediately sent back to the front after exchange. Video showing mobilized Russians sent to death without support. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video footage of a deceased RF soldier, directly contradicting RF narratives of low casualties.
RF War Crimes/Terrorism: Highlighting civilian casualties (Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk) and infrastructure damage (Sumy railway, Bila Tserkva) as acts of terrorism. The booby-trapped drone incident.
RF Internal Issues: Highlighting internal corruption in RF defense plants, social welfare issues, and challenges with public services in Moscow. Operatyvnyi ZSU reporting on KamAZ's net loss. The appeal for donations for drones and Starlink (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) suggests resource shortfalls impacting soldier morale, potentially leading to public disillusionment if not addressed by the state.
UA Resilience/Success: Showcasing successful drone operations, air defense interceptions, counter-intelligence successes, and morale-boosting events for military personnel (Presidential Brigade award). Оперативний ЗСУ shares new video footage of drone operations from the 2nd Mountain Assault Battalion, highlighting successful UA tactical engagements.STERNENKO shares video of a damaged UA military vehicle, followed by a QR code for donations, turning a setback into a call for support and highlighting UA resilience.Оперативний ЗСУ shares a photo message about "Assistance and support for brothers-in-arms," indicating focus on internal unity and mutual support.
International Support: Emphasizing ongoing military aid and diplomatic support from allies.
Hybrid Operations: The use of booby-trapped "ждун" drones is a hybrid tactic blending conventional ordnance with psychological warfare and deception. RF's internal social control measures (migrant policies, censorship) are elements of hybrid warfare aimed at ensuring domestic stability for the conflict. Accusations of Microsoft against FSB hackers underscore persistent cyber warfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:
Ukraine:
Resilience under attack: Despite high civilian casualties from RF missile/drone attacks, there is no indication of widespread public collapse. Public mourning (Kharkiv) for Kyiv victims indicates shared national grief.
Concern over conscription: The TCC incident in Kharkiv and the Kryvyi Rih corruption case highlight public sensitivity around mobilization efforts. Colonelcassad's report on mail-in mobilization summons for TCCs will likely exacerbate public tension around conscription.
Continued support for military: Reports of aid to Kharkiv defenders suggest ongoing civilian support for the military. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» sharing news on additional leave for military personnel suggests an effort to address morale and welfare, which is likely positively received.
Defiance: The act of a returned UA POW destroying his RF passport is a powerful symbol of defiance.
Internal corruption concerns: Public awareness of corruption investigations (Kirovohrad, Kryvyi Rih) may impact trust in governance, but efforts to address it (BEB polygraph) could mitigate this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Russia:
Maintaining support for "SVO": State media and milbloggers actively disseminate narratives of RF advances, territorial gains, and success, aiming to maintain public support.
Morale Boosting: Efforts to celebrate military holidays, highlight veteran support, and show "soldier's everyday life" aim to boost military and public morale. The 11th Guards Air Assault Brigade (Ulan-Ude)'s birthday celebration serves this purpose. «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» video emphasizes military virtues to boost morale.
Internal social pressures: Reports of residents requesting return of mobilized head of settlement, and perceived elite hypocrisy (Matvienko's son) indicate some public discontent with mobilization. The appeal for donations for drones and Starlink (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) suggests resource shortfalls impacting soldier morale, potentially leading to public disillusionment if not addressed by the state.
Information Control: Increased internet shutdowns and censorship indicate state efforts to control information and suppress dissent, which reflects underlying concerns about public sentiment.
Economic strain: Reduced work weeks in car manufacturing and increased fuel costs might create low-level public dissatisfaction, but likely not significant enough to impact war effort. Operatyvnyi ZSU reporting on KamAZ's net loss might be seen internally as a sign of economic struggle, potentially impacting public confidence.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New Operatyvnyi ZSU report on KamAZ's loss adds a dimension of potential economic impact on public sentiment.)
International Support and Diplomatic Developments:
Support for Ukraine:
Military Aid: Pentagon's $3.5 billion contract for missile and associated equipment (AMRAAM for F-16s) and Germany's transfer of two Patriot systems reaffirm strong military support. US proposal of $55 billion using frozen Russian assets.
Diplomatic Solidarity: Israel's condemnation of Kyiv strikes. Zelenskyy's statement on readiness to meet with leaders for peace if Russia is serious.
Political Alignment: UA-Poland historical/political alignment reinforced by Warsaw Uprising commemoration.
Support for Russia:
Belarus Alignment: Lukashenka's continued strong public alignment with Putin, including discussions on "union projects" and "Oreshnik" missile deployment. New Belarusian SOF brigade near Ukraine border.
Diplomatic Engagement: Meetings with Syrian Defense Minister, establishment of direct flights with Saudi Arabia, military-technical cooperation with Laos, plans for railway transport to Laos via China. TASS reports Lavrov's statements on positive discussions with Washington and proposals for working groups with Ukraine indicate RF efforts to use diplomacy to legitimate its position and seek a resolution on its terms.
Economic Ties: Continued trade with China and other non-sanctioning countries.
Rhetorical Support: Nicaragua's recognition of annexed Ukrainian territories.
Neutral/Contested:
Trump's Role: Trump's stated desire for peace before August 8th and alleged offer of EU energy resources for tariff reductions indicate a complex, potentially disruptive, role in international dynamics. Putin's "reproach" of Trump's "excessive expectations" suggests RF is managing the narrative around these discussions. Trump's casualty figures (Alex Parker Returns, Operatyvnyi ZSU, RBK-Ukraine) will be contested.
EU Internal Dynamics: Orbán's criticism of EU-US arms deals indicates internal EU dissent. Lost correspondence of Ursula von der Leyen with Pfizer CEO creates internal controversy.
Nagorno-Karabakh: RF acting as humanitarian actor while diplomatic tensions rise with Azerbaijan over linguistic/political issues.
India: Indian oil refineries suspending Russian oil purchases due to Trump/EU pressure, but RF potentially leveraging CPC pipeline indicates a complex, evolving economic relationship.
Lithuania-Belarus Drone Incident: Lithuania's official protest to Belarus regarding the drone border violation highlights regional diplomatic tensions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New TASS report on Lithuania's protest confirms an active diplomatic development.)
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):
Continued High-Intensity Offensive in Donetsk and Kharkhiv with Integrated Air and EW Suppression. RF will sustain and potentially intensify ground operations on the Pokrovsk axis, with Konstantinovka remaining a primary objective. Efforts to disrupt UA logistics, including bridge destruction, will continue. This will be heavily supported by a sustained, high-volume aerial campaign of drones (Shaheds, "Molniya-2," decoys, "Skvorets"), KABs, and potentially further "Oreshnik" missile strikes against critical infrastructure and rear areas. RF EW systems, particularly 'Pole-21M' and Shipovnik-Aero, will remain active in key sectors (e.g., Robotyne, Kharkiv) to suppress UA drone ISR and FPV strike capabilities. RF will seek to maintain pressure across multiple secondary axes (Kharkiv (Vovchansk, Lyptsi), Kupyansk, Siversk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Sumy) to fix Ukrainian reserves. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Broadening of Aerial Campaign with Targeted Civilian Infrastructure Strikes and Enhanced Drone Warfare: RF will continue to utilize its increasing drone and missile production capacity to conduct multi-vector, saturation attacks across various Ukrainian oblasts, including further strikes on civilian transportation infrastructure (e.g., railway hubs like Sumy), industrial sites (e.g., Bila Tserkva), and potentially C2/UAV infrastructure (e.g., Zhadovo) to degrade morale, disrupt logistics, and force continued expenditure of UA air defense assets. Expect continued use of "ждун" booby-trapped drones in forward areas. The increasing focus on new drone variants ("Skvorets") and direct targeting of UA drone C2 (Zhadovo) indicates a sophisticated adaptation in drone warfare aimed at overwhelming and countering UA capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Information Warfare Amplification and Diplomatic Signaling: RF will escalate its information operations, emphasizing claimed territorial gains, portraying UA as corrupt and illegitimate, and attempting to sow discord between Ukraine and its allies. They will leverage both overt state media and covert milblogger networks to shape narratives and influence both domestic and international audiences. This will include leveraging statements from figures like Trump (e.g., casualty figures, blaming Biden for the war) to sow doubt and influence Western public opinion. Concurrently, RF will maintain diplomatic signaling to the US and Ukraine, proposing working groups and expressing openness to dialogue, while maintaining its maximalist peace conditions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Internal Consolidation and Resource Management: RF will continue efforts to consolidate internal control, manage economic pressures (including state acquisition of key industries), and secure resource supply, while maintaining recruitment efforts to sustain ground force strength. New measures regarding mobilization summons via mail will be fully implemented. This includes further anti-corruption efforts and the relocation of companies from Moscow to optimize internal resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):
Decisive Breakthrough in Donetsk with Massed Forces and Strategic Encirclement: RF commits significant, uncommitted reserves (potentially from the newly formed 44th Army Corps or other strategic reserves) to the Pokrovsk axis, achieves a rapid, decisive breakthrough towards Konstantinovka, and attempts to envelop or isolate a large Ukrainian force grouping, potentially threatening the broader Donbas front. This would be combined with overwhelming aerial and EW support, including sustained "Oreshnik" strikes on key UA command and logistics nodes. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
Coordinated Cross-Border Offensive from Belarus: While currently assessed as lower probability, a coordinated ground offensive from Belarus could be initiated, potentially synchronized with existing RF offensives in Ukraine, aimed at stretching UA forces, threatening Western Ukraine, or opening a new axis of advance towards Kyiv. The formation of a new Belarusian SOF brigade near the border increases the potential for such operations, albeit initially on a smaller, localized scale. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
Cyber Warfare Escalation: A significant, disruptive cyber attack against Ukraine's critical national infrastructure (e.g., energy grid, financial systems, military networks) synchronized with kinetic operations, leading to widespread disruption and degrading UA's ability to wage war and manage society. This would be combined with a robust disinformation campaign to amplify chaos. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:
Next 24-72 Hours: Continued heavy fighting and RF pressure on the Pokrovsk axis (Konstantinovka, Sukhetsky) and persistent strikes on civilian infrastructure across Ukraine (e.g., railway, industrial). RF likely to assess the effectiveness of the Sumy railway station strike and potentially replicate it. UA will continue to prioritize air defense and defensive fortifications, and adapt to mail-in mobilization summons. Decision point for UA: redeploying reserves to critical Donetsk sectors or maintaining current posture, while managing public sentiment regarding mobilization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Next 1-2 Weeks: RF likely to attempt consolidation of any tactical gains in Donetsk. Continued high volume of UAV/missile strikes expected, as RF drone production ramps up. UA will face increasing pressure to balance defensive efforts with resource preservation. International aid deliveries will become even more critical. Decision point for NATO/allies: accelerating delivery of long-range air defense systems and counter-EW capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Next 1-2 Months (as per Lukashenka's statement): Lukashenka's aggressive timeline for RF territorial gains ("capture everything," including Kramatorsk) indicates a potential RF intent for a major strategic push in the late summer/early autumn. This could involve an attempt to fully seize Donetsk Oblast and potentially escalate operations towards Kharkiv or other major urban centers. Decision point for UA: comprehensive strategic defense planning, potential general mobilization (if not already implemented), and increased diplomatic efforts for long-term security guarantees. Decision point for international partners: long-term commitment of military and financial aid, including advanced offensive systems. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Lukashenka's statement is propaganda, but it outlines an ambitious RF goal which should be considered as a long-term intent.)
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
RF Ground Force Intent and Strength in Donetsk and Kharkiv:
Gap: Full order of battle and precise strength of RF forces involved in the Konstantinovka and Vovchansk/Lyptsi pushes; confirmation of infiltration depth into Sukhetsky. Assessment of remaining Ukrainian forces in Konstantinovka and Vovchansk.
Requirements: IMINT (high-resolution satellite imagery, commercial satellite imagery), SIGINT (monitoring RF communication networks for unit identifications and movement orders), HUMINT (interrogation of new RF POWs if captured in these areas). (Priority: HIGH)
RF Drone Production and Deployment Schedule:
Gap: Verification of reported RF drone production targets (40,000 Shaheds/Geran-2, 24,000 decoys in 2025). Specifics on "Geran-3" and "Skvorets" capabilities and deployment.
Requirements: SIGINT (monitoring industrial communications, procurement networks), OSINT (analysis of open-source RF industrial reports, defense expos), TECHINT (analysis of downed drone debris for design changes). (Priority: HIGH)
RF Internal Control Measures and Societal Impact:
Gap: Detailed analysis of the impact of new internal laws (migrant schooling, censorship, mail-in summons) on RF society and potential for internal dissent. Effectiveness of RF recruitment and veteran support programs on overall morale and public support for the conflict. Confirmation of the practice of immediately returning former POWs to the front. Impact of KamAZ financial losses on wider military industrial complex.
Requirements: OSINT (monitoring social media, independent media reports, interviews with RF citizens/migrants), HUMINT (through various channels to assess internal sentiment). (Priority: MEDIUM)
Belarusian SOF Brigade Details:
Gap: Exact size, composition, training, and intended deployment location(s) of the newly formed Belarusian Airborne Assault Brigade of Special Operations Forces. Assessment of its readiness and integration with RF forces.
Requirements: IMINT (satellite imagery of training grounds, barracks), SIGINT (monitoring Belarusian military communications), OSINT (public statements, military parades, recruitment materials). (Priority: HIGH)
RF Diplomatic Strategy and Intent:
Gap: Full understanding of Lavrov's statements regarding discussions with Washington and proposals for working groups with Ukraine. Is this a genuine overture or a tactic to influence international opinion and create division?
Requirements: OSINT (analysis of diplomatic statements, media interpretations from various international sources), HUMINT (diplomatic channels, if available). (Priority: HIGH)
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
Immediate Enhancement of Air Defense: Prioritize the rapid deployment of remaining SHORAD and mobile air defense assets to key urban centers, particularly Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, to counter RF's widening aerial campaign and mitigate civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. (Action: Air Force Command, General Staff)
Reinforce Pokrovsk and Kharkiv Axes with Counter-Logistics and EW: Expedite the transfer of engineer units and long-range precision fires to the Pokrovsk and Kharkiv axes to counter RF bridge-building efforts and target identified RF logistics nodes, force concentrations, and especially EW systems (like 'Pole-21M') supporting advances. (Action: Ground Forces Command, Artillery Command, EW Directorate)
Counter-Hybrid Operations Training and Public Awareness: Develop and disseminate updated TTPs (Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures) for identifying and safely neutralizing booby-trapped "ждун" drones for both military and civilian emergency services personnel in frontline regions. Launch public awareness campaigns regarding the mail-in mobilization summons to manage public sentiment and ensure compliance. (Action: Explosive Ordnance Disposal Units, Civilian Defense Services, Ministry of Defense Information Directorate)
Information Warfare Counter-Narrative: Immediately launch a coordinated information campaign to counter RF propaganda regarding territorial gains, particularly in Chasiv Yar and Vovchansk, and to highlight RF's disregard for its own personnel (e.g., returning injured POWs to front) and the human cost of its strikes on civilians. Emphasize UA resilience and international support. Actively counter misleading casualty figures disseminated by RF. (Action: Ministry of Defense Information Directorate, SBU)
International Diplomatic Engagement and Aid Acceleration: Leverage recent statements by Putin and Lukashenka (e.g., "Oreshnik" deployment, Lukashenka's timeline for capture of Kramatorsk), alongside RF's persistent and escalating attacks on civilian infrastructure, to emphasize the critical need for sustained, increased military aid, especially in long-range precision fires, air defense, and counter-EW capabilities. Maintain a unified front against RF diplomatic overtures unless they genuinely meet UA's conditions for a lasting peace. (Action: MFA, Presidential Administration)
Internal Governance Integrity and Personnel Welfare: Continue and accelerate ongoing anti-corruption investigations, particularly those affecting resource allocation and mobilization. Publicize successes to maintain public trust and reinforce the contrast with perceived RF internal corruption. Prioritize personnel welfare programs, including additional leave, to maintain morale and combat readiness. (Action: General Prosecutor's Office, BEB, SBU, Ministry of Defense Personnel Directorate)
