Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 010030Z AUG 25

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide missile and UAV threat from RF persists. RF launched over 300 drones and 8 missiles overnight, with UA Air Force and Operatyvnyi ZSU reporting 291 enemy targets shot down/suppressed, including 288/309 strike UAVs and 3/8 Iskander-K missiles. Discrepancies likely due to suppression vs. physical destruction or different counting methodologies. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 317 aerial attack assets engaged. ASTRA reports 5 direct missile hits and 21 drone hits overnight. Operatyvnyi ZSU provides OSINT data indicating a 1378% increase in "Shahed" and imitation drones launched by RF in July 2025 compared to July 2024. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kyiv Oblast: RF conducted a ballistic missile strike on Kyiv following a very high-volume Shahed UAV attack and previous ballistic/cruise missile strikes. KMA reports impacts on residential buildings in Sviatoshynskyi and Solomianskyi districts. Latest reporting indicates 16 confirmed fatalities, including 2 children (one 6-year-old identified as Matvii Marchenko), and 159 injured, including 12 children, with 10 individuals missing. Emergency services are conducting search and rescue. National Police confirm traffic blocked on several streets. Klitschko reports police personnel among the injured, noting the highest number of injured children in Kyiv since the start of the war. RF sources overtly celebrate attacks on "enemy capital" and mock Ukrainian air defenses, claiming Zhuliany Airport (Patriot SAM position and UAV assembly workshops) and industrial enterprises were targeted. Ukraine's Minister of Internal Affairs, Ihor Klimenko, is on-site. Railway infrastructure in one of Kyiv's districts was damaged, leading to temporary use of diesel locomotives. New video footage shows Shahed impact and drone footage shows destroyed apartment block in Sviatoshynskyi. Minister Klimenko confirms Kyiv was likely attacked by "reactive Shaheds." Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms Kyiv attacked by reactive Shaheds. РБК-Україна confirms 135 injured, youngest 5 months old. Man rescued from rubble. STERNENKO reports "Umma" mosque damaged. Colonelcassad shares photos, claiming military-industrial infrastructure hit. Mother and six-year-old son found dead under rubble. DSNS aviation involved in rescue. КМВА confirms 124 casualties (updated to 135 injured total, 15 fatalities). КМВА reports air raid alert ended. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and РБК-Україна share video of a girl surviving a fall from the 9th floor. Олексій Білошицький shares bodycam footage of patrol police response. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF struck Kyiv with Iskander-K missiles from Kursk Oblast, noting short warning time. Оперативний ЗСУ reports 13 killed (updated from 11). Kyiv has declared tomorrow, August 1st, a day of mourning. Военкор Котенок reports British sources complain reactive "Gerans" are much harder to shoot down. Оперативний ЗСУ shares Reuters/ABC News video showing multiple explosions over Kyiv overnight, confirming intense strikes. РБК-Україна provides video of Ukrainian Presidential Brigade successfully downing an Iskander-K missile heading towards Kyiv. РБК-Україна reports police senior lieutenant Liliya Stepanchuk killed. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares shocking footage of RF strikes on Kyiv. Air raid alert in Kyiv ended at 18:23Z. Colonelcassad shares video of explosions in Kyiv. КМВА (Kyiv Military Administration) reports that search and rescue operations in Solomianskyi district are complete, but continue in Sviatoshynskyi. KMA states that thousands of Kyiv residents seek assistance after each mass attack. Alex Parker Returns shares a video capturing multiple explosions in Kyiv, followed by a large plume of smoke, confirming significant impact. New message: РБК-Україна reports "Шахеди" рухаються у напрямку Київської області. Николаевский Ванёк reports 7 UAVs heading to Bila Tserkva, then confirms "minus" (shot down) for those UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poltava Oblast: Threat of enemy strike UAVs from the northeast reported by Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. New update: ⚠ Увага! Миргород, Гадяч, Комишня (Полтавщина)! indicating continued UAV activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: КАBs inbound. RF conducted missile strike on a suburb of Kharkiv (Vasyshcheve), resulting in fires and 8 casualties, including rescue workers. RF sources claim powerful strike on UA Armed Forces warehouse and advance towards Kharkiv-Kupyansk road. Oleg Synyehubov confirms significant civilian damage. 7 settlements impacted in last 24 hours. Rescue efforts ongoing, utilizing LUF CRV robot. Liveuamap Source reports clashes near Vovchansk, Krasne Pershe and Kamyanka. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports FSB agent detained for adjusting RF shelling of Kharkiv energy infrastructure. Oleg Synyehubov reports over 205 hectares demined in a week. Координаційний штаб met with families of missing/captured servicemen. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAVs on north and east, with engagement. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video showing Vovchansk in ruins. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KABs inbound. Kadyrov_95 shares thermal footage of Akhmat special forces engaging UA manpower in Kharkiv direction, claiming success. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares drone footage of military activity in Volchansk vicinity, showing personnel movement, targeted areas, and damaged structures, indicating ongoing reconnaissance and targeting operations. MoD Russia reports Supercam S350 UAV teams of the Sever Group of Forces located a control post of heavy drones and a manpower cluster of the AFU in Kharkov direction. Z комитет + карта СВО shares a tactical map of Volchansk, showing the situation. Colonelcassad shares a video documenting strikes on various military assets, including those in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued RF aerial operations. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares video of drone footage from the 42nd Mechanized Brigade depicting combat scenarios, explosions, and reconnaissance. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy UAV on western outskirts of Kharkiv, possible PPO work. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports Нові групи ворожих БпЛА на північному заході і сході Харківщини, курс - південний. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports 🚀Пуски КАБ ворожою тактичною авіацією на межі Харківщини та Донеччини. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk (Pokrovsk Axis): RF forces are most actively advancing. Battles in Dimitrov (Myrnohrad), improved RF positions in Rodinskoye. RF sources claim significant advancement towards Volodymyrivka, "pinching" Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk. RF sources now claim assault units entered residential areas of Pokrovsk, establishing positions near the market, asserting ~5km advance. Drone footage shows destruction. RF using FPV drones against UA personnel. RF MoD claims seizure of fortified areas on approaches to Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). TASS claims RF advanced 1.5 km near Zelenaya Dolina and Karpovka. "Операция Z" claims elimination of foreign mercenaries near Pokrovsk. TASS claims "South" group destroyed Western equipment near Konstantinovka. Water supply to four cities reduced. New КАBs inbound reported by Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Liveuamap Source reports clashes near Popiv Yar, Fedorivka, Novoekonomichne, Promin, Lysivka, Zvirivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Horikhove, towards Boykivka, Novopavlivka, Pokrovsk, Rodynske, Chervonyy Lyman, Novoukrayinka, Dachne. STERNENKO reports donations stable but needs grown due to combat intensity in Pokrovsk. Военкор Котенок shares map of Pokrovsk direction. Janus Putkonen claims RF advancing into Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, and Kupyansk encirclement tightening. STERNENKO shares video of 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade destroying enemy transport with fiber-optic drones. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports enemy DRGs operating deep in Pokrovsk. РБК-Україна reports a strike on the center of Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a destroyed residential building. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a photo of destruction with preliminary casualties. РБК-Україна reports one killed and over 10 wounded, half of a 5-story building destroyed. ASTRA confirms RF struck residential building with casualties. Народная милиция ДНР claims destruction of Israeli-made AFU radar near Druzhkivka. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KABs incoming to Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. Z комитет + карта СВО shares a tactical map of the Krasnolimanskoe direction (likely Siversk/Lyman direction), showing control of territory and defensive structures as of July 31, 2025, indicating ongoing ground activity. Colonelcassad shares a map focusing on Novopavlovskoye direction (Southern Donetsk direction) as of July 31, 2025, indicating RF advances. Операция Z shares a photo message claiming RF is completing the defeat of the enemy in the Oleksandropol-Kalynove area, effectively encircling Kostiantynivka. TASS reports The Daily Telegraph claims UA has lost hope of holding Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk). MoD Russia shares a video titled "Serviceman of an assault detachment Aleksandr Bushmelev spoke in detail about liberation of Koptevo and Novotoretskoye in the Donetsk People's Republic," confirming ongoing RF ground operations aimed at territorial gains in Donetsk. Филолог в засаде shares a video showing the aftermath of an attack on a residential area with significant damage to buildings and a damaged vehicle, likely in the Konstantinovka direction, indicating continued impact on civilian areas. Zelenskiy / Official reports Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's report states UA units are holding all positions in the Pokrovsk sector. Операция Z claims "The surrender of Pokrovsk is a matter of time," citing The Telegraph, highlighting a new RF information operation to demoralize UA. New update: НгП раZVедка shares video "⚠️Уничтожение моста. Константиновка." showing a thermal drone video of an explosion on or near a road, confirming continued RF targeting of infrastructure. ТАСС shares video of UAV operators of the "South" grouping destroying a BTR and armored vehicle of the AFU, with objective control footage provided. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports 🚀Пуски КАБ ворожою тактичною авіацією на межі Харківщини та Донеччини. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar Direction: RF MoD, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Операция Z, and Kotsnews all claim the complete liberation of Chasiv Yar by Russian forces. TASS reports RF forces destroyed largest grouping of AFU there. First confirmed operational deployment of Shipovnik-Aero mobile EW complex. 50% increase in Lancet strikes. UA drone successfully targeted RF SA-13, fortified position, and 2S1 Gvozdika. RF footage shows Russian flags raised in Chasiv Yar (Ognuporny Plant, Levanevsky, Shevchenko, Pivdennyi microdistricts). TASS reports UA defenses collapsed after Chasiv Yar loss. DeepState map contradicts RF claims. TASS claims RF evacuated population. Воин DV publishes "Chasiv Yar has fallen!" video. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition repeats liberation claim. Alex Parker Returns claims Chasiv Yar liberated, next target Sloviansk-Kramatorsk. Liveuamap Source reports clashes near Chasiv Yar, Minkivka, Novomarkove. РБК-Україна reports OSUV "Khortytsia" spokesman Trehubov refuted RF claims. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms refutation. Belousov congratulated VDV units. Рыбарь and Военкор Котенок publish videos claiming "liberation." MoD Russia shares video of paratroopers raising flags. DeepState directly refutes, calling it "flag-waving" action. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares DeepState refutation. РБК-УкраїНА reports on refutation. Colonelcassad reports UA "confirms factual loss" but retains localized presence (unverified). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition states Chasiv Yar under RF control, next step offensive on Sloviansk-Kramatorsk. TASS reports AFU withdrew to Konstantinovka. Старше Эдды further claims Chasiv Yar is under RF control and will be a staging area for Sloviansk-Kramatorsk offensive. Басурин о главном similarly claims Chasiv Yar liberation and offensive on Kostyantynivka. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video from 63rd Brigade showing Ukrainian tank operations around a settlement with smoke and explosions, likely in the Chasiv Yar area, indicating ongoing combat. Николаевский Ванёк shares drone footage explicitly refuting RF claims of Chasiv Yar liberation, showing drone strikes on RF personnel and destroyed vehicles. TASS (Yan Gagin) claims RF forces have established fire control over "dozens of kilometers" around Chasiv Yar. TASS (Marochko) claims UA forces will be forced to retreat from Donetsk Oblast after Chasiv Yar liberation. Colonelcassad reports RF MoD data on AFU losses in Chasiv Yar, claiming 17,210 personnel and 1,840 armored vehicles/artillery pieces, including Western equipment, were destroyed. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a photo message stating "ЧАСОВ ЯР – НАШ!" with a map overlay. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video from 24th Mechanized Brigade refuting Russian TikToks about Chasiv Yar, explicitly showing troop movements, artillery strikes, and enemy losses in the area, including destroyed vehicles and casualties. Colonelcassad describes the difficulties of the battle for Chasiv Yar. Operatyvnyi ZSU shares video from "Donbas" battalion (18th NGU Brigade) providing additional footage from Chasiv Yar, directly refuting RF "TikToker" claims of capture. This video shows drone footage targeting and destroying Russian military assets, including an armored vehicle and a building. Zelenskiy / Official refutes Russian disinformation regarding Chasiv Yar. Alex Parker Returns shares photos of the devastation in Chasiv Yar, reinforcing the intensity of fighting. Военкор Котенок shares aerial photos of "liberated" Chasiv Yar, depicting extensive urban destruction, reinforcing RF claims of control. ASTRA shares photos depicting widespread destruction in Chasiv Yar after "liberation," reinforcing RF claims of control. New update: Операция Z shares new photos and video claiming "Взятие Часов Яра: 217 полк водрузил флаги на последней улице на юге города, посрамив Зеленского," and a video showing extensive destruction and individuals with a flag. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - RF claims highly propagandistic and directly refuted by UA sources, including new video evidence. RF "flag-waving" likely occurred in already occupied ruins, not the city center or areas under UA control. The latest RF claim of UA confirmation is unverified and contradictory to public UA statements. UA video refutation is a strong indicator. RF MoD loss figures are likely inflated for propaganda purposes. ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA reinforces RF claims. New RF claims of flags on "last street" in the south remain unverified by independent sources and are contradicted by UA statements/videos of ongoing combat. The aerial video provided by Operatsiya Z confirms widespread destruction but does not definitively confirm RF control of the entire city or the "last street" claimed.)
  • Siversk Direction: 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade (10th OGShBr) successfully repelled an enemy assault, destroying 13 motorcycles. TASS reports RF forces destroyed Ukrainian defensive line near Serebryanka. Liveuamap Source reports clashes near Hryhorivka, Serebryanka, Vyyimka, Zvanivka and Fedorivka. STERNENKO shares video of SPEAR Group B 118th Territorial Defense Brigade engaging and destroying a Russian vehicle in the Siversk direction. Сливочный каприз shares photo message with map overlay of Krasny Liman - Zelenaya Dolina, likely referring to the Siversk/Lyman direction, indicating ongoing RF activity on 29 JUL 25. Colonelcassad shares a map with a caption stating RF forces are advancing in the Siversk direction. Сливочный каприз shares photos and videos of damaged forested areas and military personnel movement in the Siversk - Ivano-Daryevka direction as of July 31, 2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy Oblast: Russians continue assaulting with small infantry groups. Enemy UAVs detected. KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. Russia struck Sumy Oblast administration building for third time. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports likely reconnaissance UAV detected, engaged. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Ussuri paratroopers operating from Sumy direction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports КАBs inbound. Liveuamap Source reports UA repelled 32 RF assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky. TASS claims "Geran-2" and "Lancet" inflicted damage. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAV on north of Sumy. Два майора shares video of ZALA Z-16 targeting for MLRS during ammunition depot destruction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB inbound. TASS reports destruction of AFU assault group in Khrapovshchyna, Sumy Oblast. Z комитет + карта СВО shares a military map of the Sumy Direction, showing the operational situation as of July 31, 2025, with marked areas and symbols. Два майора shares a video of an explosion in agricultural fields on the Sumy direction, likely indicating an ordnance strike. РБК-Україна reports Sumy will join the day of mourning for Kyiv fatalities on August 1st. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Ukrainian SSO operators clearing a settlement in Kursk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAV north of Konotop, Sumy Oblast, and that means for shooting down have been engaged. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Zelenskiy / Official reports ongoing Russian strikes on Sumy. Два майора shares a video call for donations for the Sumy direction, featuring three individuals in military attire, suggesting ongoing combat and resource needs. Сливочный каприз shares photos and videos of military activity in Sumy direction, showing personnel and vehicles, confirming ongoing ground operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RF KABs confirmed inbound. RF active in recruiting locals. RF sources claim UA shelling of playground, injuring three children. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports continued RF attacks on civilian infrastructure in Orikhiv, Hulyaypole, and Kamianske. RF 7th Airborne Division appealing for drone/Starlink donations due to EW. Operatyvnyi ZSU and ASTRA confirm 2 casualties: 17-year-old boy and 64-year-old woman injured. Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation airstrikes at Bilohirya. Liveuamap Source reports clashes near Plavni and Malynivka. MoD Russia claims howitzer crew destroyed EW station. Сили оборони Півдня України explicitly refutes RF claims of capturing Kamianske. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms refutation of Kamianske capture. Zelenskiy / Official reports cynical RF attack two days ago on prison, killing 16, wounding 43. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues warning ("УВАГА🚨"). Офіс Генерального прокурора reports collaborator deputy transferred 24,000 tons of harvest to RF, causing 56 million UAH damages. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports almost 700 hectares of grain destroyed by fires. DeepState indicates occupation of Kam'yans'ke, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports Nikopolshchyna experienced a dozen enemy attacks with FPV drones and artillery, hitting Nikopol, Marhanetska, Chervonohryhorivska, Myrivska, and Pokrovska communities. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports air raid alert ended. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating VDV presence. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares multiple photo messages detailing events in July, including visits by the Prosecutor General, aid distribution, and agricultural efforts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares thermal footage from the Zaporizhzhia front, showing potential vehicle or personnel activity. Два майора shares a photo message attributed to the Governor of Zaporizhzhia Oblast (occupied), discussing events and possibly damages. ТАСС reports three fatalities, including a child, from an attack on a car in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, citing Balitsky. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports three fatalities in Polohivskyi district after Ukrainian forces attacked a civilian vehicle. Два майора shares a new aerial reconnaissance video from the Zaporizhzhia front, highlighting thermal signatures of vehicles or armored units and linear fortifications, indicating continued ground activity. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video appealing for drones and Starlink from the 7th Division in Zaporizhzhia direction, highlighting equipment needs. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares a video featuring Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reporting on the Pokrovsk direction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Два майора shares aerial footage from the Zaporizhzhia front showing multiple explosions, indicating intense ongoing artillery or air strikes. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports air raid alert ended. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Conflicting reports on Kamianske. New photo messages from Zaporizhzhia indicate continued civilian life and administrative activity despite ongoing conflict.)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): Enemy attacked Nikopolshchyna with FPV drones and artillery. Воин DV claims 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade destroyed UA armored vehicle/truck. New group of strike UAVs detected heading northwest. Explosions in Samara. Ukrainian PPO destroyed 15 enemy drones. Serhiy Lysak confirms region hit by rocket/drone strikes, including agricultural and transport enterprises in Pavlohrad. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports aviation weapon use threat in Sinelnikovskiy district. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches on border of Donetsk, Dnipropetrovik, Zaporizhzhia. Colonelcassad claims Iskander-M strike on tuberculosis dispensary in Kamianske. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) and Олександр Вілкул share photo messages regarding military equipment transfer to UA forces in Kryvyi Rih. Два майора shares a video titled "Днепропетровск," showing a large explosion and fire, likely from a recent strike. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video displaying a large plume of smoke rising, likely from a significant event such as a fire or explosion, potentially in Dnipropetrovsk. Colonelcassad shares a video showing the aftermath of recent attacks in Dnipropetrovsk, with heavily damaged industrial or military facilities, twisted metal, and smoke plumes. Mash на Донбассе reports a school collapsed in Makeevka. New update: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports new groups of enemy UAVs on the southeastern side of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a northwest course. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson Oblast: Ukrainian engineering troops cleared nearly 3,000 hectares of mines. RF forces dropping flags onto railway bridge near Kherson (psychological operation). Два майора shares video titled "Kherson direction," showing destroyed building and "Oduvanchik" (Dandelion) wireframe structure for drone protection. Liveuamap Source reports UA repelled 5 RF assaults. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares drone targeting video. Mash на Донбассе reports two fatalities and one severely injured from road accident in Ilovaisk, involving civilian and military personnel. Два майора shares a drone video from the Kherson direction, showing an explosion in a residential area. Colonelcassad shares a photo of a destroyed 2S22 "Bohdana" SAU in Kherson Oblast, dated July 4, 2025. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of threat of enemy strike UAVs from occupied territories of Kherson Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports threat of enemy strike UAVs from the Black Sea in Mykolaiv Oblast. New update: Народная милиция ДНР shares video of humanitarian aid being delivered in Kherson Oblast, featuring civilians and aid workers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Threat of enemy strike UAVs from south. Shahed UAVs reported heading north-northeast. UA reports household building caught fire in Kremenchuk district due to UAV debris. New update: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 🛵 Кіровоградська, Черкаська, Одеська області - загроза застосування ворогом ударних БпЛА! confirming continued threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Western Ukraine: Air raid alert due to strike UAVs gradually spreading. Shaheds reported moving towards / through Zhytomyr Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kryvyi Rih: Situation controlled. Alex Parker Returns posts about driver hitting UA veteran, exploiting internal security/morale issues. Олександр Вілкул reports on meeting for heating season prep. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) and Олександр Вілкул share photo messages regarding military equipment transfer to UA forces. Олександр Вілкул provides a briefing summarizing the situation, including allocation of funds for social support and housing reconstruction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pavlohrad Interest: Colonelcassad reports large-scale fire at Pavlohrad railway junction after combined missile/drone strike, labeling it "one of the largest logistics hubs." Shahed Hayabusa confirms agricultural/transport enterprises hit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Odesa Oblast: "Два майора" reports another strike on GUR in Odesa Oblast, indicating continued RF targeting of UA intelligence and military assets in the south. New update: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 🛵 Кіровоградська, Черкаська, Одеська області - загроза застосування ворогом ударних БпЛА! confirming continued threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cherkasy Oblast: New update: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports a warning for Cherkasy. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports Ворожі БпЛА на межі Черкащини і Київщини, курс - західний/північно-західний. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia:
  • Belgorod Oblast: Krasnoyaruzhsky district residents to be evicted from temporary accommodation despite ongoing shelling. MoD reports 13 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Rostov/Belgorod. Два майора reports significant fire. AV БогомаZ reports civilian injured. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports enemy UAV shot down near Belgorod city. ASTRA reports a man died after shelling in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. РБК-Україна reports complaints of unknown drone attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Bryansk Oblast: Video shows explosion on body of water, possibly mine or artillery. Drone security reported. Два майора reports UA drone attack on Sluchevsk village, injuring civilian. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov Oblast: MoD reports 13 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Rostov/Belgorod. 5 UAVs destroyed in Rostov, causing forest fire. Fighterbomber reports military commissariat inviting volunteers. Mash на Донбассе reports border crossing points closed. New update: WarGonzo reports "⚡️Таганрог атакуют дроны⚡️" indicating a new drone attack in Rostov Oblast, with video claiming helicopters and air defense engaging drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volgograd Oblast: Restrictions on aircraft at Volgograd Airport, then lifted. Massive UAV attack repelled, disrupting gas supply to 65 homes and train movement due to debris on railway. Large fire reported in Kotelnikovo. TASS reports train movement resumed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Saratov Airport: Temporary restrictions on aircraft, then lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Penza Oblast: Drone attacks reported on factory, identified as Penza Radio Plant (part of Rostec). RF sources distribute video of large explosion/fire. STERNENKO and ASTRA confirm target was Penza Radio Plant ("EVT named after V.A. Revunov"), producing computing equipment for RF MoD. TASS reports public transport suspended during "Air Danger," now cancelled. ASTRA confirms fire in area of two factories. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна confirm SBU drones hit the plant. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports at least two hits, one with "Batyr" UAV. Alex Parker Returns confirms target. ASTRA states at least 2 UAVs hit Penza Radio Plant. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vladimir Oblast: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports another drone found. Colonelcassad confirms another drone found in Vladimir Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Balashikha, Moscow Oblast: TASS reports five-story residential building fire, one fatality (updated to two). ASTRA shares video. TASS reports firefighters rescued two, evacuated 90. TASS reports open fire in Balashikha has been liquidated. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Lipetsk Oblast: Игорь Артамонов shares video of children's recreation, "Prometheus." ASTRA reports security forces conducted a search of the Lipetsk regional committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) premises. New update: Игорь Артамонов reports air danger mode across Lipetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security: FSB detained railway arson teenagers. MoE official detained for embezzlement. "Angara" airline certificate annulled. RDK leader Kiryushchenko arrested in absentia. Mobilized serviceman convicted for drug retrieval. RF war participant stole heirloom. Minor planned to set fire to relay cabinets. Police in Khabarovsk Krai on law enforcement op. New RF legislation for expelling foreigners. TASS reports Moscow court sentenced couple to 15/17 years for collecting military data. Sever.Realii comments: "Now the entire community of Russians... can be safely declared extremist." Alex Parker Returns comments on Crocus attack perpetrators being manipulated for money. Sever.Realii reports Leningrad Oblast deputy arrested for Navalny post. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports convicted serviceman accused of rape. Два майора reports FSB/Interior Ministry detained traffic inspectorate head. Север.Реалии reports Chemezov "dacha cooperative" in Dubai. WarGonzo reports youth detained in Buryatia for arsons. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports 31 bodies of liquidated RF servicemen delivered to Tuva, relatives waiting for hours. Операция Z reports teenager arrested in Ufa. ASTRA reports Krasnoyarsk student pre-trial detention for railway arsons. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares video on Ufa saboteur arrest. TASS reports Aksyonov signed decree restricting foreign labor. Sever.Realii reports Moscow Art Theatre director suspected of bribe. TASS reports Ilya Timofeev, former head of RF MoD's Main Armored Directorate utilization service, sentenced to 9 years for bribery. ASTRA reports regional officials recommended to switch to Max messenger. Colonelcassad shares video of detention of man from Saksky district, Crimea, accused of supporting AFU, denying integrity, using derogatory terms, proclaiming Nazi slogans. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports detention of former state employee who helped enemy target strategic enterprise. TASS reports 18-year-old Mariupol resident sentenced to seven years for collecting RF Armed Forces data. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports children of deceased serviceman not receiving payments. TASS reports Putin signed law on fines for intentional search of extremist materials and VPN advertising. TASS reports Putin signed law recognizing VPN use as aggravating circumstance. ASTRA reports Sevastopol photographer sentenced to 22 years. ТАСС reports MVD has put Sota journalists Petr Ivanov and Ruslan Terekhov on a wanted list. TASS reports Putin signed law allowing families of foreigners who died fighting for RF to apply for citizenship. Alex Parker Returns shares a photo regarding a pensioner fined 3,000 rubles in Ufa for defending the "Russian community" in VK comments, suggesting internal social tensions. TASS reports Putin signed a law increasing fines for parents not fulfilling their child-rearing duties. Colonelcassad shares video of 18-year-old Mariupol resident sentenced to 7 years for collecting data on RF Armed Forces. TASS reports RF Government approved a bill on mortgage holidays for families with children. TASS reports Putin signed law introducing fines for extremist searches in search engines. TASS reports Putin signed a law stripping acquired Russian citizenship for murder, rape of children, terrorism propaganda, and cooperation with other countries against Russia. TASS reports Putin signed a law obliging payments to be made within 30 days to the wounded, volunteers, and family members of those killed in the SVO. TASS reports information on migrant children in schools/colleges will be transferred to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Alex Parker Returns reports Putin signed a law blocking films/series that "discredit traditional values." Два майора reports detention of a man in Kurgan for calls to extremism. ASTRA reports two Russian SOTA journalists were put on a wanted list after reporting in Sudzha. TASS reports Putin signed a law on two pensions for SVO participants who became disabled. ТАСС reports departmental security will be supplied with combat small arms to repel drone attacks, a law signed by Putin. Полиция Хабаровского края shares photos of a police radio studio and a graduation ceremony at a police academy. These are internal Russian events with no direct military significance. New update: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares photos captioned "Там же, Севастополь" showing scenes of waste/refuse in what appears to be a civilian area, implying neglect or poor conditions in occupied Crimea. Alex Parker Returns shares new photos regarding a legal case with text about a judge and migrants from Tajikistan, highlighting internal ethnic/social tensions in RF. Оперативний ЗСУ shares photo message on "Freedom of Speech in RF". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Occupied Luhansk: Video shows litter/neglect. Large queue at Luhansk Republican Clinical Hospital. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Russian authorities failed to organize water supply, prohibiting price increases, leading to no delivery. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports RF junior sergeant Daria Trofimova "Belka," drone operator, liquidated in Luhansk while delivering FPV drones under humanitarian aid disguise. Mash на Донбассе shows makeshift rainwater collection in Donetsk. Народная милиция ДНР reports humanitarian aid from Moscow for Donbas. WarGonzo reports Ukrainian UAV struck firefighters in Luhansk, injuring five. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vostochny Cosmodrome: TASS reports anti-terrorist exercises held. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • California, USA: Colonelcassad reports F-35 fighter jet crashed near Lemoore Naval Air Station, Fresno County, with fire/smoke. Pilot ejected. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - unrelated)
  • United Kingdom: Poddugny reports second batch of nuclear weapons delivered to UK from US on July 29 (Nukewatch UK). ASTRA reports an activist, Aleksandr Frolov, committed suicide in the UK after being denied asylum. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - RF propaganda, unverified)
  • Myanmar: ASTRA reports martial law lifted after 4.5 years. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - unrelated)
  • Russian Economy: News from Moscow reports "Russians have become richer." TASS reports car dealerships closing due to weak demand. Новости Москвы reports chicken prices up 18%, Lada Iskra won't have AC. TASS reports Central Bank working on ending Visa/Mastercard services. TASS reports Bank of Russia established quantitative limits on mortgages. TASS reports 40 million rubles collected from Oleg Tinkov for Oleg Deripaska. Новости Москвы reports Putin signed law allowing tax authorities to collect debts without court order. TASS reports migrants working by government quota will not need to pass history or Russian language tests. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Iran: TASS reports Aeroflot will resume Moscow-Tehran flights in August. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Belarus: Филолог в засаде reports active Polish/Ukrainian special services work in Belarus. TASS reports Lukashenka stating Russia is guarantor of security. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF propaganda)
  • Nagorno-Karabakh: Военкор Котенок and Два майора share photos of destroyed monument to Aivazovsky in Khankendi (Stepanakert), confirming cultural destruction by Azerbaijani authorities. Басурин о главном shares video showing destroyed churches and claims they were shelled by UA with cluster munitions, and still contain unexploded mines. TASS reports dismantling of Aivazovsky monument causes regret and deep rejection, according to RF President's special representative for international cultural cooperation. Военкор Котенок shares additional video with graphic content on "Azerbaijani occupation of Artsakh," showing alleged desecration of bodies, looting of homes, and Armenian cemeteries. TASS shares Shvydkoy's full comment on the dismantling of the Aivazovsky monument. Военкор Котенок reports humanitarian aid efforts by Rossotrudnichestvo for displaced persons from Nagorno-Karabakh in Armenia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • China: TASS reports 3-year-old boy survived 18-story fall. TASS reports Putin holding talks with Laotian President Thongloun Sisoulith. TASS reports RF plans to establish railway transportation to Laos via China. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - unrelated)
  • Saudi Arabia: TASS reports amusement ride collapsed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - unrelated)
  • Moldova: TASS reports Moldovan President Sandu called on migrants abroad to register for elections by Aug 14, not mentioning those in Russia. TASS reports Moldova intends to solve Transnistrian problem only after RF Operational Group of Forces withdrawal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Estonia: TASS reports Estonia does not plan to recognize Palestine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Nicaragua: Операция Z, Colonelcassad, Оперативний ЗСУ report Nicaragua officially recognized new territories of Ukraine as part of Russia. TASS reports Medvedev stating Russia highly values this. Alex Parker Returns reiterates Nicaragua's recognition of DNR, LNR, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia as part of Russia, claiming "a completely different map will emerge." (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Isolated diplomatic event, international legal standing challenged.)
  • India: Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report Indian state-owned oil refineries suspending purchases of Russian oil amid Trump's customs threats/EU sanctions. STERNENKO confirms Indian state oil refineries temporarily suspended purchases of Russian oil, citing Reuters. ASTRA reports India refused to buy Russian oil after Trump's threats. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Indian oil refineries are stopping purchases of Russian oil, citing Reuters. РБК-Україна provides a photo message discussing Trump's potential punishment of India over Russian oil and whether sanctions will stop the war in Ukraine, indicating the ongoing relevance of this issue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Syria: Операция Z, TASS, MoD Russia, Alex Parker Returns report RF Defence Minister Belousov met with Syrian Defence Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra in Moscow to discuss cooperation. TASS reports Putin received Syrian Foreign Minister in Kremlin. New update: ТАСС reports The meeting between Putin and Syrian Foreign Minister Asaada al-Sheibani marked the beginning of a new stage of mutual understanding between the two states. This implies continued diplomatic engagement and strengthening of relations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • TikTok (Global): TASS reports messages about leak of 250,000 lines of email/usernames/user IDs of TikTok users from Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • BRICS: TASS reports Peskov stated BRICS work not oriented against other countries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • High-Speed Rail (RF): TASS reports Putin ordered model for high-speed rail network development by March 31, 2026. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - internal development)
  • Crimean Bridge: TASS reports queues exceeded 1,200 cars. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Hungary: TASS reports Hungary does not plan to recognize Palestine for now. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Laos: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Laotian President Thongloun Sisoulith gifted two elephants to Putin. TASS reports Belousov held talks with Laotian Defence Minister Khamlieng Outhakaisone, discussing military-technical cooperation and joint exercises. MoD Russia similarly reports Belousov's talks with Lao Defence Minister. TASS reports RF and Laos signed seven documents, including a roadmap for nuclear cooperation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - diplomatic activity with military implications)
  • Poland: Два майора reports Poland "secretly" testing American autonomous boats to enhance special operations in the Baltic Sea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UN: TASS reports UN recognized a lightning flash of 829 km as the longest in the world. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - unrelated)
  • Global: Colonelcassad reports Trump stated he wants to conclude peace in Ukraine before August 8th. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights details of Trump's statement, noting it again equates Russia and Ukraine. Два майора quotes US diplomat John Kelly at UN Security Council calling for ceasefire by August 8th. ASTRA shares video of John Kelly, US Deputy Assistant to the President, at a UN session, stating Trump wants peace by August 8th and the US is ready for additional measures. Старше Эдды reports Trump wants a "peace deal" by August 8th, threatening anger if not met, and claims EU will continue to be "faithful concubine" due to fear of Russian retribution. TASS reports Rubio stating US held contacts with Russian representatives to achieve understanding on peace in Ukraine and considers military confrontation unacceptable due to nuclear potential. TASS shares a video of a car crashing during a rally in Ecuador, unrelated to military operations. Kotsnews shares a poll result showing 77% of subscribers believe Trump does not know what he wants. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Rubio stated US had full conversation with RF this week on stopping the war, with no progress. STERNENKO confirms Rubio's statements on talks with RF without results. Операция Z similarly reports Rubio's statements. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports US Secretary of State Rubio stated on Fox Radio that the US held talks with Russians regarding stopping the war in Ukraine, but saw no progress. This indicates a lack of diplomatic breakthrough for RF. Alex Parker Returns relays a White House statement that Trump has achieved effectiveness in one peace agreement or ceasefire per month, and deserves the Nobel Peace Prize. Старше Эдды comments on Trump's shifting moods regarding tariffs. STERNENKO reports Putin's important statement, then withdrawal. New update: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Donald Trump speaking at a podium, indicating continued engagement on the global diplomatic front. TASS reports Trump stated "USA will impose sanctions against RF after 10-day deadline," indicating escalating international pressure. РБК-Україна shares video of Trump stating the same. Операция Z shares video of Trump stating same. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Trump plans to visit Russia after Israel. TASS reports Witkoff will visit Russia, citing Trump. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Georgia Border (Upper Lars): ASTRA reports mudslide near Verkhniy Lars border crossing between Russia and Georgia, causing siren activation and temporary traffic disruption. ASTRA reports on evacuation of Ukrainians detained there due to the mudslide. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sweden: TASS reports RF embassy statement that Swedish media uses theme of Ukrainian children for fake accusations against Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internet Access (RF): TASS reports Roskomnadzor (RKN) sent a request to remove Speedtest Ookla software. ASTRA reminds users that ASTRA VPN has unlimited data. New update: TASS reports over 4,000 Telegram users complained about a malfunction, indicating potential vulnerabilities in RF digital infrastructure or ongoing cyber activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Moscow (RF): Новости Москвы reports Muscovites will see a total solar eclipse in 101 years, indicating general news and no immediate threat. New update: Новости Москвы reports "🥵 Жара ночью негативно влияет на качество сна", a general weather report. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - unrelated)
  • Space (RF): TASS reports Bakanov (likely from Roscosmos) stating agreement with acting NASA head on ISS operation until 2028. TASS reports Bakanov invited acting NASA head to a Soyuz launch in November. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Eilat Port (Israel): Colonelcassad reports 95% of ships refuse to moor at Eilat port. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kamchatka (RF Far East): TASS reports three earthquakes (M5.2, M5.0, M5.8) in less than an hour. New update: ТАСС reports Северо-Курильска в Сахалинской области начала принимать у жителей заявления на выплату компенсаций после прошедших землетрясения и цунами. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal RF Social Issues: ASTRA reports on the new head of the "Lesta" gaming studio (World of Tanks, World of Warships), Boris Dobrodeev, former director of VK and son of the head of VGTRK. This is an internal Russian social/business development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Voronezh Oblast, RF: New message: ТАСС reports 🚨Несколько БПЛА уничтожены над Воронежской областью, пострадавших нет, сообщил губернатор. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Kharkiv Oblast: Continued RF strikes cause fires and damage. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video confirms Vovchansk in ruins. Kadyrov_95 thermal footage of Kharkiv direction implies clear visibility for drone operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows smoke plumes from damaged structures in Volchansk, confirming environmental impact from combat. Z комитет + карта СВО shares a map of Volchansk, indicating destroyed areas. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 video shows explosions and scorched earth, confirming environmental impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Donetsk/Luhansk (Occupied): Ongoing fires in fields. Video from Luhansk shows significant debris. Water supply issues in four Donetsk cities. Mash na Donbashe video shows makeshift rainwater collection in Makeevka, confirming severe water issues. Mash на Донбассе reports locust/grasshopper invasion. Басурин о главном video of churches damaged by shelling, indicating environmental hazards from unexploded ordnance. Военкор Котенок shares videos showing looting, destruction in abandoned homes, and desecration of Armenian cemeteries in Artsakh, depicting severe environmental and cultural damage. Филолог в засаде shares a video showing the aftermath of an attack on a residential area with significant damage to buildings and a damaged vehicle, and scorched landscape, indicating direct environmental impact from military action. Colonelcassad shares aerial photos of Chasiv Yar showing extensive destruction after 1.5 years of fighting, with ruined buildings and overgrown vegetation, confirming severe environmental degradation. Военкор Котенок shares aerial photos of "liberated" Chasiv Yar, depicting extensive urban destruction, reinforcing RF claims of control. ASTRA shares photos depicting widespread destruction in Chasiv Yar after "liberation," reinforcing RF claims of control. New update: Операция Z shares new video of Chasiv Yar showing widespread destruction of buildings, reinforcing environmental impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• General Conditions: Continued operations in adverse weather (rain affecting visibility). New update: Новости Москвы reports "🥵 Жара ночью негативно влияет на качество сна" which might indicate high temperatures affecting personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kamchatka (RF Far East): Nine earthquakes (M4.2-M5.5). Aftershocks expected for months. Ash emission from Klyuchevskoy volcano. TASS reports three earthquakes (M5.2, M5.0, M5.8) in less than an hour. New update: ТАСС reports Северо-Курильска в Сахалинской области начала принимать у жителей заявления на выплату компенсаций после прошедших землетрясения и цунами. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kherson Direction: "Два майора" mentions "strong wind" during drone footage. Два майора shares drone videos of explosions and smoke over residential areas in Kherson direction, confirming environmental impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kotelnikovo (RF): Large fire observed after UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Rostov Oblast (RF): Falling debris from destroyed UAVs caused forest fire. New update: WarGonzo reports drone attack on Taganrog, implying continued environmental impact from such incidents. РБК-Україна shares video showing lights and smoke in Belgorod, attributed to unknown drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Penza (RF): Plume of dark smoke from drone strike on Penza Radio Plant. Large explosion/fire. Public transport suspended. Residents complained about closed shelters. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kremenchuk Raion: UA reports household building caught fire due to UAV debris. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kyiv Oblast: Night photos show aftermath of attack. Large smoke plume and flames. Damage to railway. Zelenskiy confirms residential damage. Klitschko video shows significant destruction. Klimenko confirms direct impact on 5th floor. STERNENKO confirms damage to "Umma" mosque. РБК-Україна reports DSNS aviation involved. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and РБК-Україна share video of girl surviving fall. Оперативний ЗСУ shares Reuters/ABC News video showing multiple explosions over Kyiv, confirming significant environmental impact. ASTRA video shows explosions in Kyiv during Russian attack, confirming active urban engagement. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares shocking footage of RF strikes on Kyiv. Colonelcassad shares video of explosions in Kyiv. Alex Parker Returns shares a video capturing multiple explosions in Kyiv, followed by a large plume of smoke, confirming significant environmental impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Pavlohrad: Large-scale fire at railway junction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Belgorod Oblast (RF): Significant fire at building. AV БогомаZ reports civilian injured. ASTRA reports a man died after shelling in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, confirming environmental impact of shelling. РБК-Україна shares video showing lights and smoke in Belgorod, attributed to unknown drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Balashikha, Moscow Oblast (RF): TASS reports fire in residential building, thick black smoke. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Moscow (RF): Новости Москвы reports thunderstorms and strong winds expected. New update: Новости Москвы reports "🥵 Жара ночью негативно влияет на качество сна", indicating potential heat affecting personnel or operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kramatorsk: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of destroyed residential building. Операция Z reports large smoke plume. РБК-Україна reports half of 5-story building destroyed. ASTRA videos and photos show destruction. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video showing the aftermath of an apparent artillery or air strike on a residential building, with smoke billowing from the structure and debris scattered around, confirming environmental impact. New update: НгП раZVедка shares video "⚠️Уничтожение моста. Константиновка." showing an explosion on or near a road, confirming environmental impact from strikes on infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports almost 700 hectares of grain destroyed by fires. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares thermal footage from Zaporizhzhia front, showing potential environmental heat signatures. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports a burned vehicle in Polohivskyi district. Два майора shares aerial footage of multiple explosions on the Zaporizhzhia front, confirming significant environmental impact from ongoing combat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Georgia Border (Upper Lars): ASTRA video shows mudslide and siren, disrupting traffic in a mountainous region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Dnipropetrovsk: Два майора video shows large explosion and fire, indicating significant environmental impact from recent strike. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video displaying a large plume of smoke rising, suggesting a significant environmental event. Colonelcassad shares video of the aftermath of attacks in Dnipropetrovsk, with heavily damaged industrial or military facilities, twisted metal, and smoke plumes. Mash на Донбассе reports a school collapsed in Makeevka. New update: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports new groups of enemy UAVs on the southeastern side of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a northwest course. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sumy Oblast: Два майора shares a video of an explosion in agricultural fields, confirming environmental impact from combat. Сливочный каприз shares video capturing a series of artillery or rocket strikes on wooded areas and a body of water, confirming environmental impact from combat operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Siversk-Ivano-Daryevka Direction: Сливочный каприз shares photos and videos of heavily shelled and damaged wooded areas with craters and scattered debris, confirming environmental degradation from combat operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Lipetsk Oblast: New update: Игорь Артамонов reports air danger mode across Lipetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Voronezh Oblast, RF: New message: ТАСС reports 🚨Несколько БПЛА уничтожены над Воронежской областью, пострадавших нет, сообщил губернатор. This indicates environmental impact from drone debris/interceptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF Force Dispositions:
  • Air Assets: RF continues KAB launches (Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Sumy). New groups of strike UAVs (Shaheds) identified in Chernihiv/Sumy (moving south/northwest to Kyiv), Western Ukraine, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, and Poltava. RF actively using FPV drones in Dnipropetrovsk (Nikopolshchyna) and Chasiv Yar. FAB-1500 strike in Kupyansk. High volume of Shaheds converged on Kyiv, followed by ballistic/cruise missile strikes. TASS reports 169 UA UAVs shot down overnight. UA reports 15 enemy drones destroyed by PPO in Dnipropetrovsk. RF sources claim Zhuliany Airport targeted. RF MoD claims combined missile-drone strike on Pavlohrad railway junction. RF MoD claims 44 UAV control points and 28 drones destroyed by "Zapad" Grouping. Zelenskiy reports over 300 drones and 8 missiles. WarGonzo and Minister Klimenko indicate "reactive Shaheds" in Kyiv attack. Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms reactive Shaheds. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 317 aerial attack assets engaged. ASTRA reports 5 direct missile hits and 21 drone hits. TASS claims "Geran-2" and "Lancet" inflicted damage in Sumy. RF MoD claims group strike on Ukrainian defence industry, airfield, depots. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS cites Ignat saying RF used up to 8 reactive UAVs. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports RF drone strike on railway traction substation/signaling station. KMVA reports MiG-31K air raid alert in Kyiv. Alex Parker Returns confirms drone strikes on Penza industrial facilities. Colonelcassad claims Iskander-M strike on tuberculosis dispensary in Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk. РБК-Україна and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports strike on Kramatorsk. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB inbound to Sumy. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports another drone found in Vladimir Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України confirms repeated KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast. Воин DV shares video of thermal/night vision drone footage targeting a vehicle/structure, resulting in explosions and fires, indicating successful offensive operations. РБК-Україна shares video of an expert stating Russians will not be able to fully transition to reactive Shaheds due to cost/production constraints. Colonelcassad shares drone footage of FAB-500 with UMPK glide bomb striking an automobile crossing of the Volchya River near Velikomikhailovka, indicating continued precision strike capability against UA logistics. MoD Russia reports Supercam S350 UAV teams of the Sever Group of Forces located a control post of heavy drones and a manpower cluster of the AFU in Kharkov direction. Два майора shares drone video showing explosion in residential area, possibly Dnipropetrovsk. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video displaying a large plume of smoke, possibly from a strike, indicating continued aerial activity. WarGonzo shares a video demonstrating preparation and deployment of FPV drones with improvised explosive devices by the 44th Army Corps for reconnaissance and attack missions, indicating a continued focus on drone warfare. Colonelcassad shares an animated map illustrating claimed strikes across Ukraine on 30-31 July, including explosions, Geran drones, and UMPK missile strikes. This confirms RF's focus on showcasing widespread aerial activity. Another strike on GUR in Odesa Oblast reported by "Два майора". Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports threat of enemy strike UAVs from the Black Sea in Mykolaiv Oblast. Colonelcassad shares video of FPV drone operated by 144th MSD destroying a 155mm Polish AHS Krab. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeastern direction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy UAV on western outskirts of Kharkiv, possible PPO work. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAV north of Konotop, Sumy Oblast, and that means for shooting down have been engaged. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southeastern direction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Два майора reports that RF launched as many drones in July as in almost the entire year of 2024. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports threat of enemy strike UAVs from the south in Donetsk Oblast. Alex Parker Returns shares an image of a 3D rendered drone (possibly a loitering munition) with the claim of 6,297 launches in July (1374% increase vs. July 2024), indicating a massive increase in drone usage. Colonelcassad shares a video titled "Combat work of Uragan MLRS #1st_tank_army Group Z," explicitly showing the firing of an Uragan MLRS and drone footage of the impact. New updates: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports new warning for 🛵 Кіровоградська, Черкаська, Одеська області - загроза застосування ворогом ударних БпЛА! indicating continued multi-region drone threats. WarGonzo reports "⚡️Таганрог атакуют дроны⚡️" indicating a new drone attack in Rostov Oblast, implying continued UA deep strikes or false flag operations. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports new groups of enemy UAVs on the southeastern side of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a northwest course. Повітряні Сили ЗС України warns of threats to Cherkasy. Игорь Артамонов reports air danger mode across Lipetsk Oblast. РБК-Україна shares videos of complaints about unknown drone attacks in Russia (Belgorod). New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports Нові групи ворожих БпЛА на північному заході і сході Харківщини, курс - південний. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports Ворожі БпЛА на межі Черкащини і Київщини, курс - західний/північно-західний. New message: РБК-Україна reports "Шахеди" рухаються у напрямку Київської області. Николаевский Ванёк reports "minus" for UAVs on Bila Tserkva. New message: ТАСС reports 🚨Несколько БПЛА уничтожены над Воронежской областью, пострадавших нет, сообщил губернатор. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Forces: Persistent offensive pressure on Pokrovsk axis, with claimed advancements into residential areas. RF small infantry group assaults in Sumy. RF Special Forces "AKHMAT" Group "Bati" operating in Kharkiv. RF VDV appealing for drone/Starlink. "Операция Z" claims elimination of foreign mercenaries near Pokrovsk. TASS claims "South" group destroyed Western equipment near Konstantinovka. TASS claims RF forces advancing on Kharkiv sector and near Zelenaya Dolina/Karpovka. RF MoD claims to have liberated Chasiv Yar, supported by video evidence of flag raising and TASS claims of largest AFU grouping destroyed. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Alex Parker Returns assert Chasiv Yar liberation. TASS reports 18 foreign mercenaries identified. Liveuamap Source reports clashes near Kindrashivka, Karpivka, Toretsk, Zaporizhzhya. MoD Russia shares video of howitzer crews wiping out strongholds in Luhansk. Народная милиция ДНР shares video of night ambush. MoD Russia claims EW station destruction in Zaporozhye. «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» shares video featuring Akhmat battalion. Воин DV shows artillery units destroying AFU positions. TASS video shows specific VDV units credited with "liberating" Chasiv Yar. Рыбарь and Военкор Котенок publish videos claiming "liberation." Басурин о главном shows Belousov congratulating 98th Guards VDV Division. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares video of BM-21 Grad operation. Kotsnews shares videos of soldiers in tactical environments. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of RF soldier hit by FPV drone while carrying TM mine. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports liquidation of RF drone operator Daria Trofimova. Janus Putkonen claims RF "egg-running" advances in Donbass. Kotsnews shares photo of new anti-tank 'Motiv'. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports enemy DRGs operating deep in Pokrovsk. Два майора shares video "Frontline Armor" with soldier and military truck in trench. Воин DV shares video of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade destroying enemy transport/communication. Colonelcassad reports on RF assault and reconnaissance personnel on Southern Donetsk direction. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition states Chasiv Yar under RF control, next step offensive on Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of heavily modified "Frankenstein" truck. Alex Parker Returns shares a video of a truck transporting concertina wire and defensive obstacles, indicative of RF defensive preparations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares thermal imagery video from Chasiv Yar direction, showing heat signatures and explosions near structures, suggesting ongoing RF targeting or engagement. TASS reports destruction of AFU assault group in Khrapovshchyna, Sumy Oblast, showing aerial footage of craters and smoke. Сливочный каприз shares aerial reconnaissance footage with map overlay of Krasny Liman - Zelenoye Pole area (presumably Lyman direction), showing active operations on July 30, 2025. Старше Эдды further claims Chasiv Yar is under RF control and will be a staging area for Sloviansk-Kramatorsk offensive. Басурин о главном similarly claims Chasiv Yar liberation and offensive on Kostyantynivka. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports VDV presence on Zaporizhzhia direction. Kadyrov_95 shares thermal footage of Akhmat special forces engaging UA manpower in Kharkiv direction. STERNENKO shares video of Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian vehicle (with cage-like structure) in Siversk direction. Воин DV shares video demonstrating FPV drone mining operations, indicating adaptive use of drones for ground force support. Colonelcassad shares a map of Southern Donetsk direction, confirming ongoing RF ground activity. Colonelcassad shares video of reconnaissance elements from the Vostok group thanking subscribers for body armor, indicating reliance on public support. Рыбарь provides a comic strip titled "Once upon a time in a tank brigade," potentially a morale-boosting or narrative-shaping piece. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video from 24th Mechanized Brigade debunking Russian claims about Chasiv Yar, showing tactical operations and enemy losses. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares thermal footage from the Zaporizhzhia front, showing potential vehicle or personnel activity. Операция Z shares a photo message claiming RF is completing the defeat of the enemy in the Oleksandropol-Kalynove area, effectively encircling Kostiantynivka. Филолог в засаде shares a video showing the work of an evacuation group from the 103rd Motor Rifle Regiment, 150th Motorized Rifle Division, operating in the Kostiantynivka direction. «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» shares a video with soldiers in tactical gear, reinforcing national pride. Воин DV shares video of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade destroying enemy armored vehicle via FPV drone, which detonated a pre-placed mine in Alexandrogad, indicating combined arms effectiveness. Два майора reports on the Konstantinovka direction. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" provides a summary for July 31st, likely detailing ground force actions and outcomes. MoD Russia shares a video titled "Serviceman of an assault detachment Aleksandr Bushmelev spoke in detail about liberation of Koptevo and Novotoretskoye in the Donetsk People's Republic," confirming ongoing RF ground offensive capabilities. MoD Russia shares a video of a soldier discussing difficulties of movement, use of anti-drone ponchos, and motorcycle transport, indicating adaptive ground tactics and the challenges of sustaining operations. Операция Z shares a video stating Zelensky confirmed small groups of RF forces are breaking through into Pokrovsk. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing a Russian soldier with a severe facial injury on the Southern front, indicating ongoing combat. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a request for contact from the 503rd regiment. Colonelcassad shares a video depicting a drone dropping an ordnance into a dugout/trench system. Zelenskiy / Official reports Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi states UA units are holding all positions, and are eliminating Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups in Pokrovsk and Dobropillia. ASTRA reports on the disappearance of two battalion commanders of the 5th Brigade in the "DNR" after being summoned to superiors, suggesting potential internal purges or discipline issues. Сливочный каприз shares photos and videos of damaged forested areas and military personnel movement in the Siversk - Ivano-Daryevka direction as of July 31, 2025. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides an operational update as of 22:00 (19:00Z) on July 31, 2025, detailing RF actions and UA defense efforts across various axes, confirming ongoing heavy combat, particularly on the Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar directions. Colonelcassad shares a video titled "Combat work of Uragan MLRS #1st_tank_army Group Z," explicitly showing the firing of an Uragan MLRS and drone footage of the impact. New update: Операция Z shares new photos and video claiming "Взятие Часов Яра: 217 полк водрузил флаги на последней улице на юге города, посрамив Зеленского," indicating continued RF ground efforts to claim control of Chasiv Yar. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video titled "Дякуємо таким московитам за те, що вони економлять наше БК і при цьому створюють яскраві кадри" showing UA drone footage of RF soldiers in a trench system, with dust clouds from activity, confirming ongoing frontline engagements. Сливочный каприз shares photos and videos of military activity in Sumy direction, showing personnel and vehicles, confirming ongoing ground operations. New message: Операция Z shares photo message with caption: ‼️🇺🇦🏴‍☠Бригада стирается под ноль: 90% солдат 34 бригады ВСУ не возвращаются с островов. ТАСС shares video of UAV operators of the "South" grouping destroying a BTR and armored vehicle of the AFU, with objective control footage provided, indicating ongoing RF ground force support by UAVs. Сливочный каприз shares image and video messages dated 27.07.25 showing military activity in Borova - Hrekivka area, including drone footage of casualties, confirming ongoing ground engagements involving the 237th Tank Regiment. New message: Colonelcassad shares a video showcasing a sniper team's training and operational readiness, including high-precision rifles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - noting low confidence on Chasiv Yar claims, and the latest RF claim of UA confirmation is unverified and contradictory to public UA statements. New UA video refutation of Chasiv Yar is significant. The "bears" videos from «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» are propaganda, not actual dispositions, but the tactical training footage from the same source is relevant. Colonelcassad's latest is a propaganda/morale piece. New Operatsiya Z update reinforces RF claims on Chasiv Yar but remains unverified.)
  • Control Measures: RF Ministry of Justice added Navalny's book to extremist list. TASS reports Roscosmos on ISS air leak. TASS claims Crocus attackers paid. Police in Khabarovsk Krai on criminal proceedings for terrorism justification. TASS reports Russia world leader in fintech. TASS reports car ramming after Crocus attack was part of attack. TASS reports former State Duma deputy fined for LGBT content. TASS reports imports from "unfriendly countries" decreased threefold. TASS reports Tina Kandelaki declared wanted by SBU. TASS reports Nicaragua's Co-Presidents solidarity message to Putin. TASS reports former Sochi mayor accused of embezzlement. TASS reports minor planned to set fire to relay cabinets. TASS reports over 250 participants in Kursk Oblast invasion convicted. TASS reports "Eksmo" publishing to continue Dina Rubina's books. TASS reports Mikhalkov believes Russia shouldn't submit film for Oscar. TASS reports restrictions at Saratov airport. TASS reports Russia/US not negotiating nuclear disarmament. TASS reports Vershinin on US non-participation in Palestine conference. TASS reports "Angara" airline cancelled flights. TASS reports Russia/Syria contacts on bases. TASS reports Canada to recognize Palestine. TASS reports premature to talk about high-level meetings between Russia/Ukraine. TASS reports Trump doesn't care about trade ties between New Delhi/Moscow. TASS reports anti-terrorist exercises at Vostochny Cosmodrome. TASS reports new August laws on expelling foreigners. TASS reports State Duma Deputy proposes banning unvaccinated migrants from taxi work. FSB reports 15/17 year sentences for couple collecting military data. TASS denies electronic driver's licenses from August 1. TASS also reports Syrian Foreign Minister's statement. Басурин о главном implies rejection of Trump's statements. Филолог в засаде claims Polish/Ukrainian special services in Belarus. TASS reports Roskomnadzor received appeal from Shaman. TASS reports Lukashenka stating Russia is guarantor of security for Belarus. TASS reports Syrian Minister of Defense meeting Russian counterpart. TASS reports Putin's talks with Laotian President. Colonelcassad shares videos of couple sentencing. TASS reports three convicted after death in boiling pit. TASS reports Moldovan President Sandu's statement on migrant registration. TASS reports former head of RF MoD's Main Armored Directorate utilization service sentenced for bribery. ASTRA reports regional officials recommended to switch to Max messenger. Alex Parker Returns states "August will be a turning point." TASS reports Patrushev claims Western countries discussing piracy legalization. Colonelcassad shares video of detention of man from Saksky district, Crimea, accused of supporting AFU. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports detention of former state employee who helped enemy target strategic enterprise. TASS reports 18-year-old Mariupol resident sentenced. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports children of deceased serviceman not receiving payments. TASS reports Putin signed law on fines for intentional search of extremist materials and VPN advertising. TASS reports Putin signed law recognizing VPN use as aggravating circumstance. ASTRA reports Sevastopol photographer sentenced to 22 years. ТАСС reports Peskov stated BRICS work not oriented against other countries. Новости Москвы reports Putin signed tax collection law. TASS reports Putin ordered high-speed rail development. TASS reports Moldova intends to solve Transnistrian problem only after RF withdrawal. TASS reports Estonia does not plan to recognize Palestine. TASS reports Peskov stated BRICS work not oriented against other countries. TASS reports Medvedev stating Russia highly values Nicaragua's decision. TASS reports Hungary does not plan to recognize Palestine. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Laotian President Thongloun Sisoulith gifted two elephants to Putin, highlighting a symbolic diplomatic gesture. TASS and MoD Russia report Belousov's talks with Laotian Defence Minister Khamlieng Outhakaisone, discussing military-technical cooperation and joint exercises, indicating strengthened military ties. TASS reports RF and Laos signed seven documents, including a roadmap for nuclear cooperation, further solidifying the relationship. TASS reports Putin received Syrian Foreign Minister in the Kremlin, reaffirming the alliance. Два майора reports Poland "secretly" testing American autonomous boats for Baltic special operations, highlighting Western military cooperation in RF's near abroad. Alex Parker Returns reiterates Nicaragua's recognition of annexed Ukrainian territories, promoting diplomatic success for RF. TASS reports RF embassy in Sweden accused Swedish media of using Ukrainian children for fake accusations against Russia, indicating diplomatic efforts to counter negative narratives. TASS reports Rubio stating US held contacts with Russian representatives to achieve understanding on peace in Ukraine, indicating a diplomatic push from US. ТАСС reports Roscosmos discussing ISS, Moon, and deep space cooperation with US counterpart, showing continued space diplomacy. TASS reports migrants working by government quota will not need to pass history or Russian language tests, indicating an adaptive measure to facilitate foreign labor. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Peskov's statement on Putin's upcoming important address, suggesting a centralized response to international events. РБК-Україна similarly reports Putin's important statement. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports US Secretary of State Rubio stated on Fox Radio that the US held talks with Russians regarding stopping the war in Ukraine, but saw no progress. This indicates a lack of diplomatic breakthrough for RF. Colonelcassad reports 95% of ships refuse to moor at Eilat port, highlighting potential international economic pressure or regional instability. Старше Эдды comments on Trump's shifting moods regarding tariffs. ТАСС reports departmental security will be supplied with combat small arms to repel drone attacks, a law signed by Putin. ASTRA reports on the appointment of Boris Dobrodeev as head of "Lesta" gaming studio, a strategic move to control cultural influence within RF. STERNENKO reports Putin's important statement, then withdrawal. **New update: ТАСС reports "Владимир Путин 31 июля подписал 85 законов, подсчитал ТАСС." indicating a large number of new laws impacting internal controls and policies. Alex Parker Returns shares new photo message about a judge and migrants, highlighting internal social control mechanisms. Kotsnews shares photo captioned "Азертадж учит ТАСС географии" which might be related to RF control of information accuracy. Рыбарь shares a photo message "📝О чём говорит Рыбарь📝" which is a form of narrative control. TASS shares photo message of Lavrov's article stating EU and NATO distort facts to rewrite history. Операція Z shares video of Trump stating new sanctions after 10-day deadline. Оперативний ЗСУ shares photo message on "Freedom of Speech in RF". New message: ТАСС reports Германия вместе с остальной Европой при нынешних руководителях вырождается в подобие "Четвертого рейха". Об этом говорится в статье Лаврова, опубликованной в "Российской газете". New message: ТАСС shares video featuring Sergey Mironov, Chairman of the 'A Just Russia – For Truth' party, discussing proposals related to depopulation, suggesting that families should be deported if a member violates the law. He also mentions bio-control measures, indicating continued internal control and social policies within RF. New message: ТАСС shares photo of Hillary Clinton with caption: Штаб Клинтон в 2016 году работал над тем, чтобы "сфабриковать фальшивку о сговоре [ее соперника Дональда Трампа] с Россией". Об этом заявил директор ФБР США Кэш Пател. This is a clear information operation by TASS to discredit US political figures and influence public opinion in Russia. New message: ТАСС shares photo of Hillary Clinton with same caption. This indicates a coordinated disinformation effort. New message: ТАСС reports the National Museum of US History removed information on Trump's impeachments due to pressure from his administration, citing The Washington Post. This appears to be another attempt to discredit the US political system and imply censorship or manipulation by the US government, consistent with RF's information warfare tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - noting medium confidence on Nicaragua claim. New TASS update on payments reflects a formalization of social support measures. New TASS update on 85 laws signed reinforces the extensive internal control measures.)
• Friendly Forces (UA):
  • Government & Internal Security: Ukrainian PM Shmyhal warns of salary arrears if budget not amended. Rada set to vote on NABU/SAP bill. President Zelensky discusses GUR ops and cooperation with US. Syrisky demands maximum transfer of training underground. Syrisky announces 51-day BZVP. 25-year-old conscripts granted reserve status. KMA highlights World Central Kitchen support. Klimenko on-site at Kyiv strike. Zelenskiy/KMA confirm 6 fatalities, dozens injured (updated to 16 fatalities, 159 injured, 12 children, 124 casualties total). General Staff meeting to increase unit capabilities. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering agent collecting data in Kharkiv. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports exposing forestry officials in Zhytomyr for 23M UAH damages. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports changes to TCC registration for 25-year-old medical/pharmaceutical men. Координаційний штаб met with Kharkiv families. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports corruption in quadcopter purchase. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна confirm Rada adopted NABU/SAP bill. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна confirm Rada increased defense spending. Zelenskiy / Official speaks with new Polish President. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports exposing falsified pesticide production. РБК-Україна shares fundraising video for evacuation vehicle repair. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports meeting on heating season in Kryvyi Rih. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Verkhovna Rada supported bill reinforcing education right for servicemen. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos of 82nd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade improving communication. Zelenskiy / Official signs law guaranteeing independent operation of anti-corruption bodies and financing defense sector. Оперативний ЗСУ reports UA servicemen will receive additional 15 days vacation. РБК-Україна confirms. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports illegal seizure of 36.5 hectares in Synevyr National Nature Park. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports 150M UAH damages from corruption in Zaporizhzhia/Transcarpathia. Координаційний штаб meeting with 77th Separate Airmobile Brigade families. РБК-Україна shares photo messages about combat summons by mail. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of an antique "Kobzar" (Taras Shevchenko's works) from 1893, emphasizing its cultural significance. Оперативний ЗСУ provides details on the additional 15 days of vacation for servicemen, as announced by Zelensky, through Colonel Palisa. Президентська бригада ЗСУ shares video depicting soldiers training and maintaining equipment, emphasizing the transformation of civilians into military personnel. РБК-Україна reports on RF's new laws stripping acquired citizenship from political opponents, posing a potential threat to Ukrainians in Russia. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 explicitly thanks Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko for decisive actions. РБК-Україна reports police senior lieutenant Liliya Stepanchuk killed. Олександр Вілкул provides a briefing summarizing the situation, including allocation of funds for social support and housing reconstruction. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares video of Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reporting on the Pokrovsk direction, emphasizing that positions are being held, battles are intense, and RF DRGs are being destroyed. РБК-Україна reports on accusations against MP Labazyuk. Emergency rescue operations in Solomianskyi district of Kyiv completed, ongoing in Sviatoshynskyi district. This indicates the continued efforts of Ukrainian emergency services. РБК-Україна and КМВА confirm 16 killed and 159 injured in Kyiv. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos confirming the Verkhovna Rada adopted the law on mandatory annual leave for servicemen. Zelenskiy / Official delivers a daily address, discussing Russian strikes, rescue operations, casualties, and military efforts. He highlights the establishment of a Military Ombudsman and progress on legislative drafts. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports that the "18-24" program has been expanded, allowing young volunteers to study in higher education institutions without leaving service. ASTRA shares a photo message of Ukrainian emergency service personnel operating at a disaster site, confirming ongoing rescue and recovery operations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Ukraine is convening an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council due to a new wave of terror from Russia, according to FM Sybiha. New update: РБК-Україна shares map of Ukraine's air raid alarms. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports air raid alert ended. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Military Action: "Predator" Brigade recruitment. Film "Road of Death" on GUR MO op. Successful FPV drone strikes by 66th Mech Brigade. Engineering troops cleared nearly 3,000 hectares of mines. 5 RF recon UAVs shot down. UA drone targeted RF SA-13, 2S1 Gvozdika. "BULAVA" unit used drone with grenade launcher. STERNENKO reports 10,000 UAH raised for "Shahedorez." New 16th Army Corps for Kharkiv. 10th OGShBr repelled assault, destroyed 13 motorcycles. UA seeking excavators. PPO active over Kyiv. 15 enemy drones destroyed in Dnipropetrovsk. General Staff reports approx. 1070 RF personnel losses. Silo oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny operational update. 47th Mech Brigade BZVP. UA holding defensive line in Chasiv Yar. Air Force reports enemy tactical aviation in northeastern direction. STERNENKO confirms 174 targets intercepted by "Shahedorez." 12th Azov Brigade videos show elimination of occupiers. High intercepts (291/317 targets). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows FPV drone strike and drone-aided rescue. SBU confirmed FSB agent detained. Oleg Synyehubov reports over 205 hectares demined. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports NGU "Khartia" Brigade destroyed Russian ground robotic complex. STERNENKO reports 315 FPV drones purchased. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno shows 93rd Mechanized Brigade eliminating occupiers. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" reports 6694 RF officers demobilized. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides situation summary. Сили оборони Півдня України explicitly refutes RF Kamianske claims. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos of youth fire training. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video mocking "Два майора." Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of FPV drone strike on RF soldier. Президентська бригада ЗСУ shares drone strike video. STERNENKO shares video of 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade destroying enemy transport with fiber-optic drones. Оперативний ЗСУ shares photo "Догрались?" Генеральний штаб ЗСУ and Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України share photos of 82nd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade training communication. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares video of "Khartia" destroying Russian ground robotic complex. Оперативний ЗСУ reports "Country of Engineers" initiative. STERNENKO shares video of Phoenix unit working against Russian transport on Konstantinivka direction. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС shares video of wounded RF soldier after mortar strike. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) and Олександр Вілкул share photo messages regarding large shipments of military aid to UA forces. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of 413th Battalion "Raid" operators disabling an enemy Buk-M1 SAM system, a GAZ Tigr, a truck, EW equipment, and potentially a 2S1 Gvozdika, showcasing successful counter-battery/EW targeting. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of 63rd Brigade tank operators creating "hell" for occupiers, showing tanks moving through a settlement with smoke and explosions. Николаевский Ванёк shares drone footage of UA forces engaging RF personnel and destroying vehicles near Chasiv Yar, explicitly countering RF claims of control. STERNENKO shares video of SPEAR Group B 118th Territorial Defense Brigade engaging and destroying a Russian vehicle in the Siversk direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС emphasizes prioritizing aerial and ground drone units to reduce infantry losses and counter enemy drone numerical superiority. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 shares a photo of a Ukrainian soldier with a rifle in a wooded area, with the caption "Summer is the time for a rifle and into the forest," indicating continued training and operational readiness. STERNENKO shares video of SUNSTRIKE unit destroying another Supercam and Zala drone, highlighting effective counter-drone operations. РБК-Україна provides video of Ukrainian Presidential Brigade successfully downing an Iskander-K missile heading towards Kyiv. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video from 24th Mechanized Brigade showing tactical operations and enemy losses in Chasiv Yar. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Ukrainian SSO operators clearing a settlement in Kursk Oblast. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares a photo message about support for comrades, implying ongoing aid to Ukrainian servicemen. РБК-Україна shares a video highlighting the "Kraken" special unit of GUR MO, demonstrating their activities in enemy rear, destruction of DRGs, and assault tasks. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video calling for donations for drone components and transmitters for reconnaissance on the Kherson front, indicating ongoing needs for UAVs. STERNENKO shares video of "Apache" FPV drone group conducting reconnaissance and strike operations, destroying a dilapidated structure and targeting a vehicle. This further indicates UA's continued and effective use of FPV drones. Operatyvnyi ZSU shares video from "Donbas" battalion (18th NGU Brigade) providing additional footage from Chasiv Yar, directly refuting RF "TikToker" claims of capture, which is a key counter-propaganda success. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos confirming the Verkhovna Rada adopted the law on mandatory annual leave for servicemen, which is a success in military welfare. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares video of drone footage from the 42nd Mechanized Brigade depicting combat scenarios, explosions, and reconnaissance, captioned "Continuing to destroy the enemy in Kharkiv Oblast." ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports sappers of the 47th Separate Engineer Brigade are actively installing "egoza" spiral barriers in Kharkiv and Donetsk. Оперативний ЗСУ reports US Senate Committee supported $800M for Ukraine and $225M for Baltic states. STERNENKO confirms US Senate Committee approved funding for Ukraine and Baltic states. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of HIMARS strike on North Korean M-1978 "Koksan" self-propelled artillery, with ammunition detonation confirmed by 14th Separate UAV Regiment. New update: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video titled "Дякуємо таким московитам за те, що вони економлять наше БК і при цьому створюють яскраві кадри" showing UA drone footage of RF soldiers in a trench system, with dust clouds from activity, confirming ongoing frontline engagements. Николаевский Ванёк reports a successful downing of UAVs on Bila Tserkva. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Border Control: Ukrainian border guards in Odesa detained individual attempting to flee disguised as woman. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Civilian Support: Protests regarding NABU/SAP. Civilians sheltered in metro. Emergency services engaged in Kyiv. Klitschko reports police among injured. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration air raid ended, daily minute of silence. Rubezh NGU Brigade fundraising. STERNENKO urges "Convert your rage into help." Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration promoting creative contest. KMA reports on casualties, fear for children. РБК-Україна reports rescued man. РБК-Україна shares video of peaceful protest for NABU/SAP. Координаційний штаб promoting 3D modeling course. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 announces Energodar-Kaharlyk partnership. STERNENKO states citizens convinced deputies on NABU/SAP. Координаційний штаб reports meeting with 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade families. Два майора highlights UA social media offering mobile shelters. РБК-Україна shares fundraising video for evacuation vehicle repair. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and РБК-Україна share video of girl surviving fall. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 thanks Ukrainian Armed Forces. РБК-Україна reports Kyiv declares tomorrow, August 1st, a day of mourning. РБК-Україна reports US statement at UN Security Council regarding a ceasefire agreement by August 8th, indicating continued international diplomatic pressure on RF. STERNENKO reports "Trump wants to sign an agreement to end the war by August 8th." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms EU will not freeze financial support for Ukraine after NABU and SAP independence restoration. Рыбарь reports on "forgotten settlers" (переселенцы), indicating ongoing challenges for displaced populations. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares additional photo messages on civilian events and support in Zaporizhzhia. РБК-Україна reports Sumy will join the day of mourning. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a photo message of a memorial for Matvii Marchenko, a 6-year-old killed in the Kyiv attack, highlighting the civilian cost of the conflict. ASTRA shares a photo message of Ukrainian emergency service personnel operating at a disaster site, confirming ongoing rescue and recovery operations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Ukraine is convening an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council due to a new wave of terror from Russia, according to FM Sybiha. New update: Народная милиция ДНР shares video of humanitarian aid being delivered to civilians in Kherson Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Air/Missile/UAV: Capable of large-scale KAB launches (including FAB-1500) and persistent, multi-vector drone operations (Shaheds, reactive drones, FPV drones with thermobaric warheads) reaching Northern Kyiv and Western Ukraine, as well as Poltava Oblast. Demonstrated capability for coordinated, multi-layered aerial assaults on Kyiv, immediately following high-volume drone attacks with ballistic and cruise missile launches. Confirmed use of ballistic missiles on Kyiv, with claims of cluster warheads. Capable of striking industrial/logistics hubs (Pavlohrad) and military-industrial targets within Russia (Penza Radio Plant). Capable of employing mobile EW complexes (Shipovnik-Aero). Capable of shooting down UA UAVs over Russian territory, claiming 169 drones shot down. Zelenskiy confirms RF capability to launch over 300 drones and 8 missiles. WarGonzo claims mass use of "reactive Gerans." Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms RF use of reactive Shaheds. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 317 aerial attack assets engaged. ASTRA reports 5 direct missile hits and 21 drone hits. RF MoD claims precision strike on Ukrainian military airfield and ammunition depot. Два майора confirms ZALA Z-16 ISR capability. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS cites Ignat saying RF used up to 8 reactive UAVs. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports RF drone strike on railway traction substation/signaling station. Alex Parker Returns confirms drone strikes on Penza. Colonelcassad claims Iskander-M strike on tuberculosis dispensary. ASTRA confirms at least 2 UAV hits on Penza Radio Plant. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms strike on residential building in Kramatorsk. Народная милиция ДНР claims destruction of Israeli-made AFU radar. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА demonstrates capability to target airfields/runways with multiple, coordinated strikes. Повітряні Сили ЗС України confirms repeated KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast. РБК-Україна features an expert stating RF faces constraints in fully transitioning to reactive Shaheds due to cost and production. WarGonzo reports UA UAV struck firefighters in Luhansk, injuring five, indicating RF vulnerability to drone strikes on personnel within occupied territories. Colonelcassad shares drone footage of FAB-500 with UMPK glide bomb striking an automobile crossing of the Volchya River near Velikomikhailovka, demonstrating precision strike capabilities against infrastructure. Оперативний ЗСУ's OSINT data shows a 1378% increase in "Shahed" and imitation drones launched by RF in July 2025 compared to July 2024, confirming a significant escalation in RF drone capabilities and commitment. MoD Russia reports Supercam S350 UAV teams located a control post of heavy drones and manpower cluster in Kharkov direction, indicating active ISR and targeting. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video displaying a large plume of smoke rising, suggesting continued aerial offensive capability. WarGonzo demonstrates RF FPV drone capabilities for reconnaissance and attack missions using IEDs/munitions. Colonelcassad shares an animated map illustrating claimed strikes across Ukraine on 30-31 July, including explosions, Geran drones, and UMPK missile strikes. This confirms RF's focus on showcasing widespread aerial activity. Another strike on GUR in Odesa Oblast reported by "Два майора". Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports threat of enemy strike UAVs from the Black Sea in Mykolaiv Oblast. Colonelcassad shares video of FPV drone operated by 144th MSD destroying a 155mm Polish AHS Krab. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeastern direction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy UAV on western outskirts of Kharkiv, possible PPO work. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAV north of Konotop, Sumy Oblast, and that means for shooting down have been engaged. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southeastern direction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Два майора reports that RF launched as many drones in July as in almost the entire year of 2024. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports threat of enemy strike UAVs from the south in Donetsk Oblast. Alex Parker Returns shares an image of a 3D rendered drone (possibly a loitering munition) with the claim of 6,297 launches in July (1374% increase vs. July 2024), indicating a massive increase in drone usage and a significant capability. Colonelcassad shares a video titled "Combat work of Uragan MLRS #1st_tank_army Group Z," explicitly showing the firing of an Uragan MLRS and drone footage of the impact. New update: WarGonzo reports "⚡️Таганрог атакуют дроны⚡️" indicating continued drone attack capabilities within RF. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports new groups of enemy UAVs on the southeastern side of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a northwest course. Повітряні Сили ЗС України warns of threats to Cherkasy. Игорь Артамонов reports air danger mode across Lipetsk Oblast. РБК-Україна shares videos of complaints about unknown drone attack. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports Нові групи ворожих БпЛА на північному заході і сході Харківщини, курс - південний. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports Ворожі БпЛА на межі Черкащини і Київщини, курс - західний/північно-західний. New message: РБК-Україна reports "Шахеди" рухаються у напрямку Київської області. Николаевский Ванёк reports "minus" for UAVs on Bila Tserkva, confirming UA air defense capability against UAVs. New message: ТАСС reports 🚨Несколько БПЛА уничтожены над Воронежской областью, пострадавших нет, сообщил губернатор. This confirms continued RF air defense capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Forces: Persistent offensive pressure on Pokrovsk axis, with claimed advancements into residential areas. RF small infantry group assaults in Sumy. RF Special Forces "AKHMAT" Group "Bati" operating in Kharkiv. RF VDV appealing for drone/Starlink. "Операция Z" claims elimination of foreign mercenaries near Pokrovsk. TASS claims "South" group destroyed Western equipment near Konstantinovka. TASS claims RF forces advancing on Kharkiv sector and near Zelenaya Dolina/Karpovka. RF MoD claims to have liberated Chasiv Yar, supported by video evidence of flag raising and TASS claims of largest AFU grouping destroyed. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Alex Parker Returns assert Chasiv Yar liberation. TASS reports 18 foreign mercenaries identified. Liveuamap Source reports clashes near Kindrashivka, Karpivka, Toretsk, Zaporizhzhya. MoD Russia shares video of howitzer crews wiping out strongholds in Luhansk. Народная милиция ДНР shares video of night ambush. MoD Russia claims EW station destruction in Zaporozhye. «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» shares video featuring Akhmat battalion. Воин DV shows artillery units destroying AFU positions. TASS video shows specific VDV units credited with "liberating" Chasiv Yar. Рыбарь and Военкор Котенок publish videos claiming "liberation." Басурин о главном shows Belousov congratulating 98th Guards VDV Division. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares video of BM-21 Grad operation. Kotsnews shares videos of soldiers in tactical environments. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of RF soldier hit by FPV drone while carrying TM mine. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports liquidation of RF drone operator Daria Trofimova. Janus Putkonen claims RF "egg-running" advances in Donbass. Kotsnews shares photo of new anti-tank 'Motiv'. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports enemy DRGs operating deep in Pokrovsk. Два майора shares video "Frontline Armor" with soldier and military truck in trench. Воин DV shares video of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade destroying enemy transport/communication. Colonelcassad reports on RF assault and reconnaissance personnel on Southern Donetsk direction. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition states Chasiv Yar under RF control, next step offensive on Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of heavily modified "Frankenstein" truck. Alex Parker Returns shares a video of a truck transporting concertina wire and defensive obstacles, indicative of RF defensive preparations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares thermal imagery video from Chasiv Yar direction, showing heat signatures and explosions near structures, suggesting ongoing RF targeting or engagement. TASS reports destruction of AFU assault group in Khrapovshchyna, Sumy Oblast, showing aerial footage of craters and smoke. Сливочный каприз shares aerial reconnaissance footage with map overlay of Krasny Liman - Zelenoye Pole area (presumably Lyman direction), showing active operations on July 30, 2025. Старше Эдды further claims Chasiv Yar is under RF control and will be a staging area for Sloviansk-Kramatorsk offensive. Басурин о главном similarly claims Chasiv Yar liberation and offensive on Kostyantynivka. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports VDV presence on Zaporizhzhia direction. Kadyrov_95 shares thermal footage of Akhmat special forces engaging UA manpower in Kharkiv direction. STERNENKO shares video of Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian vehicle (with cage-like structure) in Siversk direction. Воин DV shares video demonstrating FPV drone mining operations, indicating adaptive use of drones for ground force support. Colonelcassad shares a map of Southern Donetsk direction, confirming ongoing RF ground activity. Colonelcassad shares video of reconnaissance elements from the Vostok group thanking subscribers for body armor, indicating reliance on public support. Рыбарь provides a comic strip titled "Once upon a time in a tank brigade," potentially a morale-boosting or narrative-shaping piece. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video from 24th Mechanized Brigade debunking Russian claims about Chasiv Yar, showing tactical operations and enemy losses. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares thermal footage from the Zaporizhzhia front, showing potential vehicle or personnel activity. Операция Z shares a photo message claiming RF is completing the defeat of the enemy in the Oleksandropol-Kalynove area, effectively encircling Kostiantynivka. Филолог в засаде shares a video showing the work of an evacuation group from the 103rd Motor Rifle Regiment, 150th Motorized Rifle Division, operating in the Kostiantynivka direction. «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» shares a video with soldiers in tactical gear, reinforcing national pride. Воин DV shares video of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade destroying enemy armored vehicle via FPV drone, which detonated a pre-placed mine in Alexandrogad, indicating combined arms effectiveness. Два майора reports on the Konstantinovka direction. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" provides a summary for July 31st, likely detailing ground force actions and outcomes. MoD Russia shares a video titled "Serviceman of an assault detachment Aleksandr Bushmelev spoke in detail about liberation of Koptevo and Novotoretskoye in the Donetsk People's Republic," confirming RF ground offensive capabilities. MoD Russia shares a video of a soldier discussing difficulties of movement, use of anti-drone ponchos, and motorcycle transport, indicating adaptive ground tactics and the challenges of sustaining operations. Операция Z shares a video stating Zelensky confirmed small groups of RF forces are breaking through into Pokrovsk. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing a Russian soldier with a severe facial injury on the Southern front, indicating ongoing combat. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a request for contact from the 503rd regiment. Colonelcassad shares a video depicting a drone dropping an ordnance into a dugout/trench system. Zelenskiy / Official reports Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi states UA units are holding all positions, and are eliminating Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups in Pokrovsk and Dobropillia. ASTRA reports on the disappearance of two battalion commanders of the 5th Brigade in the "DNR" after being summoned to superiors, suggesting potential internal purges or discipline issues. Сливочный каприз shares photos and videos of damaged forested areas and military personnel movement in the Siversk - Ivano-Daryevka direction as of July 31, 2025. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides an operational update as of 22:00 (19:00Z) on July 31, 2025, detailing RF actions and UA defense efforts across various axes, confirming ongoing heavy combat, particularly on the Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar directions. Colonelcassad shares a video titled "Combat work of Uragan MLRS #1st_tank_army Group Z," explicitly showing the firing of an Uragan MLRS and drone footage of the impact. New update: Операция Z shares new photos and video claiming "Взятие Часов Яра: 217 полк водрузил флаги на последней улице на юге города, посрамив Зеленского," indicating continued RF ground efforts to claim control of Chasiv Yar. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video titled "Дякуємо таким московитам за те, що вони економлять наше БК і при цьому створюють яскраві кадри" showing UA drone footage of RF soldiers in a trench system, with dust clouds from activity, confirming ongoing frontline engagements. Сливочный каприз shares photos and videos of military activity in Sumy direction, showing personnel and vehicles, confirming ongoing ground operations. New message: Операция Z shares photo message with caption: ‼️🇺🇦🏴‍☠Бригада стирается под ноль: 90% солдат 34 бригады ВСУ не возвращаются с островов. ТАСС shares video of UAV operators of the "South" grouping destroying a BTR and armored vehicle of the AFU, with objective control footage provided, indicating ongoing RF ground force support by UAVs. Сливочный каприз shares image and video messages dated 27.07.25 showing military activity in Borova - Hrekivka area, including drone footage of casualties, confirming ongoing ground engagements involving the 237th Tank Regiment. New message: Colonelcassad shares a video showcasing a sniper team's training and operational readiness, including high-precision rifles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - noting low confidence on Chasiv Yar claims, and the latest RF claim of UA confirmation is unverified and contradictory to public UA statements. New UA video refutation of Chasiv Yar is significant. The "bears" videos from «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» are propaganda, not actual dispositions, but the tactical training footage from the same source is relevant. Colonelcassad's latest is a propaganda/morale piece. New Operatsiya Z update reinforces RF claims on Chasiv Yar but remains unverified.)
  • Electronic Warfare (EW): Demonstrated advanced EW capabilities with first operational deployment of Shipovnik-Aero. MoD Russia claims EW station destruction in Zaporozhye. Colonelcassad shares video of 'Rubikon' system targeting communication assets. Народная милиция ДНР claims destruction of Israeli-made AFU radar. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides drone footage showing successful disabling of EW equipment on a truck by Ukrainian forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Operations: Highly capable of generating and disseminating false flag narratives, exploiting internal UA issues, discrediting UA, and promoting own advances. Increased aggressive rhetoric, openly mocking Ukrainian air defenses, and celebrating attacks. Utilizing military bloggers. New claims regarding foreign nuclear weapons in UK likely intended to escalate tensions. RF sources overtly celebrating Kyiv attacks indicate intent to terrorize. Colonelcassad shares video claiming RT audience in US larger than CNN. ТАСС shares video of couple convicted for collecting military data. Alex Parker Returns comments on Crocus attack perpetrators. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian media publishing genocidal rhetoric. Alex Parker Returns celebrates harm to UA veteran. Операция Z propagates "circus in the Rada." TASS reports Lukashenka's statements. Alex Parker Returns states "August will be a turning point." Colonelcassad shares video of detention of man from Saksky district, Crimea, accused of supporting AFU. ТАСС reports Patrushev claims NATO turning Baltic into zone of instability. Операция Z claims Nicaragua officially recognized new territories. Janus Putkonen shares Zaluzhny "Vogue model" photo. Операция Z shares "Russian Gerans rip AFU to shreds." Colonelcassad immediately attributes the Aeroflot cyberattack to Western-supported Ukrainian hackers, framing it as foreign aggression. Alex Parker Returns continues to spread racist and divisive narratives related to the Crocus attack, exploiting ethnic stereotypes. Рыбарь propagates xenophobic narratives about "ethnic occupation of markets" in Russia, linking migration to criminal activity and illicit capital outflow. Два майора's video on "SVO fighters won't give bad advice" suggests a propaganda effort to enhance trust in military personnel and their recommendations, possibly related to recruitment or internal compliance. Военкор Котенок reports on RF MoD figures for Ukrainian losses in Chasiv Yar, reinforcing RF claims of success. ТАСС reports MVD has put Sota journalists on wanted list, demonstrating continued crackdown on independent media. TASS reports Putin signed law allowing families of foreigners who died fighting for RF to apply for citizenship, aiming to boost morale/recruitment of foreign fighters. Alex Parker Returns highlights internal social tensions through a pensioner being fined 3,000 rubles in Ufa for defending the "Russian community" in VK comments, suggesting internal social tensions. TASS reports Putin signed a law increasing fines for parents not fulfilling their child-rearing duties. Старше Эдды actively promotes Chasiv Yar liberation and future offensive on Sloviansk-Kramatorsk. Басурин о главном similarly reinforces this narrative. Alex Parker Returns claims "Parker's magic button continues to work," implying influence over events, likely a propaganda/disinformation tactic. Операция Z emphasizes new law introducing fines for extremist searches, demonstrating an intent to control information access and suppress dissent. TASS reports RF embassy in Sweden accused Swedish media of using Ukrainian children for fake accusations against Russia, indicating diplomatic efforts to counter negative narratives. TASS reports RKN's request to remove Speedtest Ookla software, indicating further control over internet tools. TASS reports Rubio stating US held contacts with Russian representatives to achieve understanding on peace in Ukraine, aiming to shape narrative on peace efforts. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС shares a propaganda video of a man in military-style beret, highlighting RF's use of personality-driven content. «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» uses anthropomorphic bears in military settings as a unique propaganda tactic. Рыбарь produces comic strips, indicating diversified propaganda methods. TASS shares Shvydkoy's full comment on the dismantling of the Aivazovsky monument, attempting to control the narrative regarding cultural heritage. Kotsnews shares a poll about Trump, reflecting RF's interest in shaping narratives around Western leadership. Alex Parker Returns comments on a new law blocking films/series that "discredit traditional values," indicating RF's capability to enforce moral censorship. Два майора's animated propaganda using anthropomorphic cats in military settings, symbolizing war's impact, likely for morale or narrative shaping. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Peskov's statement on Putin's upcoming important address, suggesting a centralized response to international events. РБК-Україна similarly reports Putin's important statement. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports US Secretary of State Rubio stated on Fox Radio that the US held talks with Russians regarding stopping the war in Ukraine, but saw no progress. This indicates a lack of diplomatic breakthrough for RF. ASTRA reports on the death of Derk Sauer, founder of "Vedomosti" and director of "Dozhd". While not directly military, this indicates a capability to report on the internal media landscape of Russia and its associated personnel. ASTRA also reports a search of the Lipetsk KPRF premises, which RF media may use to frame internal political control measures. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message criticizing slow progress, which could be part of an internal narrative management or frustration sharing. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video featuring a White House press secretary stating Trump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize for his peace efforts, indicating RF's intent to promote a specific narrative about international diplomacy. Alex Parker Returns shares a video capturing multiple explosions in Kyiv at night, with the caption mocking Ukrainian air defenses, indicating continued psychological operations. Alex Parker Returns disseminates a White House statement that Trump has achieved effectiveness in one peace agreement or ceasefire per month, and deserves the Nobel Peace Prize, confirming RF's intent to amplify narratives favorable to their diplomatic objectives. MoD Russia posts a daily figure photo message which is a form of information operation. Старше Эдды comments on Trump's volatile mood, which is an attempt to shape narratives. ТАСС reports Putin signed a law refusing film distribution licenses for discrediting traditional values. Операция Z reports that Ukraine is building "dragon's teeth." Новости Москвы shares a video about a mother hitting her child in the Moscow region. This appears to be RF propaganda focused on alleged social decay in Ukraine, despite the content suggesting it is within Russia. Операция Z claims RF launched as many drones in July as the whole of last year," a clear propaganda effort to highlight scale and impact. ASTRA reports on the appointment of Boris Добродеев as head of "Lesta" gaming studio, a strategic move by RF to control cultural influence within Russia. Операция Z claims "The surrender of Pokrovsk is a matter of time," citing The Telegraph, highlighting a new RF information operation to demoralize UA and signal impending success. STERNENKO reports Putin's important statement, then withdrawal. Военкор Котенок shares aerial photos of "liberated" Chasiv Yar, depicting extensive urban destruction, reinforcing RF claims of control and serving as propaganda. ASTRA shares photos depicting widespread destruction in Chasiv Yar after "liberation," reinforcing RF claims of control. Рыбарь provides a summary of July 31st, a form of information operation to control daily narratives. New updates: Операция Z shares new photos and video claiming Chasiv Yar capture, reinforcing propaganda. Alex Parker Returns shares new photo message about a judge and migrants, continuing to highlight internal social tensions. Kotsnews shares photo "Азертадж учит ТАСС географии" to undermine TASS's credibility. Рыбарь shares new photo message "📝О чём говорит Рыбарь📝" for narrative control. ТАСС reports Alexander Maximtsev, Chief of General Staff, stating "VKS RF destroy about 95% of enemy air attacks," a highly exaggerated propaganda claim. TASS shares photo message of Lavrov's article stating EU and NATO distort facts to rewrite history. Оперативний ЗСУ shares photo message on "Freedom of Speech in RF". Colonelcassad shares video rubrics "Happy guy" and "address to AFU servicemen" (propaganda). РБК-Україна shares videos of complaints about unknown drone attack. New message: ТАСС reports Германия вместе с остальной Европой при нынешних руководителях вырождается в подобие "Четвертого рейха". Об этом говорится в статье Лаврова, опубликованной в "Российской газете". New message: Операция Z shares photo message with caption: ‼️🇺🇦🏴‍☠Бригада стирается под ноль: 90% солдат 34 бригады ВСУ не возвращаются с островов. New message: ТАСС shares video featuring Sergey Mironov, Chairman of the 'A Just Russia – For Truth' party, discussing proposals related to depopulation, suggesting that families should be deported if a member violates the law. This is a clear propaganda effort to instill social control and xenophobia. New message: ТАСС shares photo of Hillary Clinton with caption: Штаб Клинтон в 2016 году работал над тем, чтобы "сфабриковать фальшивку о сговоре [ее соперника Дональда Трампа] с Россией". Об этом заявил директор ФБР США Кэш Пател. This is a clear information operation by TASS to discredit US political figures and influence public opinion in Russia. New message: ТАСС shares photo of Hillary Clinton with same caption. This indicates a coordinated disinformation effort. New message: ТАСС reports the National Museum of US History removed information on Trump's impeachments due to pressure from his administration, citing The Washington Post. This appears to be another attempt to discredit the US political system and imply censorship or manipulation by the US government, consistent with RF's information warfare tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - noting medium confidence on Nicaragua claim, and recognizing meme nature of some IO)
• Intentions:
  • Strategic Attrition: Continue to degrade Ukrainian military/civilian infrastructure through persistent, high-intensity, layered aerial strikes (KABs, Shaheds, ballistic/cruise missiles), with clear intent to terrorize and overwhelm air defenses. This is confirmed by Kyiv strikes, targeting of residential buildings, and celebration by RF sources. Intent to target logistics hubs (Pavlohrad) and key military-industrial targets within Russia (Penza). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Territorial Expansion: Maintain and intensify ground pressure on Pokrovsk axis, aiming for decisive breakthrough. Continue probing in Sumy and using special forces in Kharkiv. Exploit claimed breakthroughs like Chasiv Yar for further offensives, potentially towards Kostiantynivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare/Propaganda: Continuously blame UA for civilian casualties and disseminate propaganda discrediting Ukraine. Promote narratives of own advances. Intensify psychological operations. Control internal narratives. New claims re: foreign nuclear weapons in UK likely to escalate tensions. RF sources likely to link Kyiv attacks to Western provocations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian media publishing genocidal rhetoric. Alex Parker Returns shows intent to degrade UA morale by celebrating veteran casualties. Операция Z shows intent to discredit UA political leadership. Операция Z's claim about Nicaragua recognizing annexed territories is clear intent to legitimize illegal annexations. Alex Parker Returns's content regarding the Crocus attack indicates an intent to propagate divisive narratives and racist sentiments regarding victims. Рыбарь's content on "ethnic occupation of markets" reflects an adaptation to internal social issues by using xenophobic narratives for scapegoating and control. ТАСС reports MVD has put Sota journalists on wanted list, demonstrating intent to silence independent reporting. TASS reports Putin signed law allowing families of foreign fighters to apply for citizenship, intent to boost foreign fighter recruitment/morale. Alex Parker Returns highlights internal social friction, suggesting intent to exploit societal divisions. TASS reports Putin signed law increasing fines for parents, indicating intent to reinforce social control. Alex Parker Returns's self-promotion as having a "magic button" further indicates an intent to foster a sense of powerful, unseen influence over events, feeding into pro-RF narratives of control and destiny. Операция Z's emphasis on the new law on extremist searches shows an intent to tighten control over information and suppress any form of dissent or independent inquiry into government actions. TASS reports RF embassy in Sweden accusing Swedish media of fake accusations concerning Ukrainian children, indicating intent to pre-emptively counter negative narratives. TASS reports RKN's request to remove Speedtest Ookla, demonstrating intent to restrict tools for bypassing internet censorship. TASS reports Rubio stating US held contacts with Russian representatives, aiming to shape narrative on peace efforts. TASS shares Shvydkoy's full comment on the dismantling of the Aivazovsky monument, indicating intent to control the narrative regarding cultural heritage. Alex Parker Returns reports Putin signed a law blocking films/series that "discredit traditional values," indicating an intent to impose moral censorship and control information. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Peskov's statement on Putin's upcoming address, indicating intent to issue a high-level response to international developments. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports 3 fatalities in Polohivskyi district after an alleged Ukrainian attack on a civilian vehicle. This indicates a clear intent by RF to blame UA for civilian casualties. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message criticizing slow progress, likely to manage expectations or express frustration, confirming RF's intent to control morale narratives. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video featuring a White House press secretary promoting Trump's peace efforts, which RF intends to use to shape international perceptions of peace initiatives. Операция Z claims "The surrender of Pokrovsk is a matter of time," citing The Telegraph, highlighting a new RF information operation to demoralize UA and signal impending success. STERNENKO reports Putin's important statement, then withdrawal. New updates: Alex Parker Returns shares new photo message about a judge and migrants, indicating intent to focus on internal ethnic/social tensions. Kotsnews shares photo "Азертадж учит TASS географии" which could indicate intent to control information accuracy. Рыбарь shares a new photo message "📝О чём говорит Рыбарь📝" for narrative control. ТАСС shares Trump's statement about sanctions against RF, implying RF's intent to downplay the impact of Western pressure. TASS shares Lavrov's article statement, indicating intent to counter Western historical narratives. Оперативний ЗСУ shares photo message on "Freedom of Speech in RF", indicating continued intent to suppress dissent. Colonelcassad shares video rubrics "Happy guy" and "address to AFU servicemen" (propaganda), indicating intent to demoralize UA forces and boost RF morale. New message: ТАСС reports Лавров's statement that Germany with the rest of Europe under current leaders is degenerating into a "Fourth Reich," indicating a clear intent to demonize European leadership and promote anti-Western narratives. New message: Операция Z shares photo message with caption: ‼️🇺🇦🏴‍☠Бригада стирается под ноль: 90% солдат 34 бригады ВСУ не возвращаются с островов, indicating intent to demoralize UA forces and claim overwhelming losses. New message: ТАСС shares video featuring Sergey Mironov, Chairman of the 'A Just Russia – For Truth' party, discussing proposals related to depopulation, suggesting that families should be deported if a member violates the law. This indicates an intent to propagate social control and xenophobia. New message: ТАСС shares photo of Hillary Clinton with caption: Штаб Клинтон в 2016 году работал над тем, чтобы "сфабриковать фальшивку о сговоре [ее соперника Дональда Трампа] с Россией". This is a clear information operation by TASS to discredit US political figures and influence public opinion in Russia. New message: ТАСС shares photo of Hillary Clinton with same caption. This indicates a coordinated disinformation effort. New message: ТАСС reports the National Museum of US History removed information on Trump's impeachments due to pressure from his administration, citing The Washington Post. This appears to be another attempt to discredit the US political system and imply censorship or manipulation by the US government, consistent with RF's information warfare tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Courses of Action: RF will continue massed aerial attacks, primarily with KABs (including FAB-1500) and Shahed UAVs, extending to Northern Kyiv, Western Ukraine, and key logistics hubs like Pavlohrad, immediately followed by ballistic/cruise missile launches. Ground offensives will persist on Pokrovsk axis with further mechanized assaults and urban penetration. RF will continue to utilize drones for reconnaissance/targeting, increasing Lancet strikes, leveraging new EW systems. RF will intensify information warfare, with aggressive rhetoric, and continue to control internal narratives. RF will continue to emphasize military-industrial targets in Ukraine and potentially launch further attacks on its own territory for false-flag purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Intensified Layered Air/Missile Strikes on Kyiv & Expanded Range: Immediate follow-up of high-volume Shahed attack with ballistic/cruise missile threats and confirmed ballistic strike on Kyiv (16 fatalities, 159 injured, 12 children, 124 casualties total) demonstrates highly coordinated, multi-layered assault. Expanded Shahed range to Northern Kyiv and Western Ukraine, and now Poltava Oblast. First reported FAB-1500 strike on Kupyansk. Confirmed strike on Pavlohrad railway junction. Damage to Kyiv railway infrastructure. STERNENKO confirms damage to "Umma" mosque. MoD Russia explicitly targets military airfield infrastructure/ammunition depots. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno confirms hits on railway traction substation/signaling station. Colonelcassad claims Iskander-M strike on tuberculosis dispensary. Strike on Kramatorsk center, destroying residential building, indicates continued targeting of civilian areas. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF struck Kyiv with Iskander-K from Kursk Oblast. Военкор Котенок reports on difficulty of shooting down reactive "Gerans." АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА provides footage of coordinated strikes on an airfield runway, indicating RF's capability to target air infrastructure. Повітряні Сили ЗС України confirms repeated KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast. РБК-Україна features an expert discussing RF's inability to fully transition to reactive Shaheds due to cost and production, indicating potential limitations. WarGonzo reports UA UAV struck firefighters in Luhansk, injuring five, showing RF vulnerability to targeted drone strikes. Colonelcassad shares drone footage of FAB-500 with UMPK glide bomb striking an automobile crossing of the Volchya River near Velikomikhailovka, demonstrating adaptive precision strike capabilities against logistics. Оперативний ЗСУ's OSINT data confirms a 1378% increase in RF drone launches in July 2025 compared to July 2024, representing a significant tactical adaptation towards drone saturation attacks. MoD Russia reports Supercam S350 UAV teams located a control post of heavy drones and manpower cluster in Kharkov direction, indicating adaptive ISR and targeting. РБК-Україна provides video of Ukrainian Presidential Brigade successfully downing an Iskander-K missile, demonstrating adaptive air defense. Два майора video of large explosion in Dnipropetrovsk indicates continued strike capability. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video displaying a large plume of smoke, suggesting a recent large-scale strike. WarGonzo demonstrates RF FPV drone capabilities for reconnaissance and attack missions using IEDs/munitions, showing continued adaptation in aerial targeting. Colonelcassad shares an animated map illustrating claimed strikes across Ukraine on 30-31 July, confirming RF's focus on widespread aerial activity as a tactical adaptation. Another strike on GUR in Odesa Oblast reported by "Два майора". Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports threat of enemy strike UAVs from the Black Sea in Mykolaiv Oblast. Alex Parker Returns shares a video capturing multiple explosions in Kyiv at night, mocking Ukrainian air defenses, demonstrating a psychological adaptation to spread demoralization. Colonelcassad shares video of FPV drone operated by 144th MSD destroying a 155mm Polish AHS Krab. Операция Z claims RF launched as many drones in July as the whole of last year, indicating a significant tactical shift to drone saturation. Два майора shares aerial footage of multiple explosions on the Zaporizhzhia front, confirming continued air/missile strike capabilities. Alex Parker Returns shares an image of a 3D rendered drone (possibly a loitering munition) with the caption claiming 6,297 launches in July (1374% increase vs. July 2024), indicating a significant tactical adaptation towards drone saturation attacks. New updates: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports new warning for 🛵 Кіровоградська, Черкаська, Одеська області - загроза застосування ворогом ударних БпЛА! confirming continued multi-region drone threats. WarGonzo reports "⚡️Таганрог атакуют дроны⚡️" indicating a new drone attack in Rostov Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports new groups of enemy UAVs on the southeastern side of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a northwest course. Повітряні Сили ЗС України warns of threats to Cherkasy. Игорь Артамонов reports air danger mode across Lipetsk Oblast. РБК-Україна shares videos of complaints about unknown drone attack. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports Нові групи ворожих БпЛА на північному заході і сході Харківщини, курс - південний. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports Ворожі БпЛА на межі Черкащини і Київщини, курс - західний/північно-західний. New message: РБК-Україна reports "Шахеди" рухаються у напрямку Київської області. Николаевский Ванёк reports "minus" for UAVs on Bila Tserkva, indicating adaptation of UA air defense. New message: ТАСС reports 🚨Несколько БПЛА уничтожены над Воронежской областью, пострадавших нет, сообщил губернатор. This confirms continued RF air defense adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Aggressive Ground Maneuvers (Pokrovsk & Chasiv Yar): Ongoing "intensely escalating" situation on Pokrovsk axis, with claimed advancements into residential areas and resumed company-sized mechanized assaults. RF "CENTRE" grouping employing FPV drones. RF MoD claims complete liberation of Chasiv Yar and destruction of largest AFU grouping, reinforced by video. TASS claims collapse of UA defenses on Kostiantynivka direction. Kotsnews shares footage of assault work under Pokrovsk. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Alex Parker Returns assert Chasiv Yar liberation. TASS (Alausdinov) asserts Chasiv Yar liberation breached UA defenses. Операция Z provides video of fierce battles near Pokrovsk. Colonelcassad claims UA acknowledges loss of Kamiansk (unverified). Сили оборони Півдня України directly refutes Kamianske capture. TASS video shows VDV units "liberating" Chasiv Yar. Kotsnews shares videos of tactical movements. MoD Russia shares video of paratroopers raising flags in Chasiv Yar. Janus Putkonen reiterates RF ground advances. Kotsnews shares photo of new anti-tank 'Motiv'. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports enemy DRGs operating deep in Pokrovsk. DeepState reports occupation of Kam'yans'ke. DeepState directly refutes RF Chasiv Yar claims. Colonelcassad reports UA's "factual loss" of Chasiv Yar but continued presence in private sector (RF narrative adaptation). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition states Chasiv Yar under RF control, next step offensive on Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of heavily modified "Frankenstein" truck. Alex Parker Returns demonstrates adaptation in transporting defensive materials to the front. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shows continued aerial reconnaissance and targeting in Chasiv Yar. TASS claims destruction of AFU assault group in Sumy, indicating adaptive counter-insurgency tactics. Сливочный каприз shares aerial reconnaissance showing active military operations in Krasny Liman - Zelenoye Pole area (presumably Lyman direction), indicating ongoing ground forces engagement. Старше Эдды states Chasiv Yar is under RF control and will be a staging area for Sloviansk-Kramatorsk offensive. Басурин о главном similarly claims Chasiv Yar liberation and offensive on Kostyantynivka. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows Ukrainian tank operations near a settlement, indicating ongoing fierce combat. Kadyrov_95 shares thermal footage of Akhmat special forces targeting UA manpower in Kharkiv direction, indicating adaptive and targeted ground operations. STERNENKO shares video of Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian vehicle (with cage-like structure) in Siversk direction. TASS (Yan Gagin) claims RF forces have established fire control over "dozens of kilometers" around Chasiv Yar. TASS (Marochko) claims UA forces will be forced to retreat from Donetsk Oblast after Chasiv Yar liberation, showing a proactive narrative push. Воин DV shares video demonstrating FPV drone mining operations, indicating an adaptive use of drones for close-range ground force support. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 provides drone footage of personnel movement and damaged structures in Volchansk, showing continued active reconnaissance and targeting in Kharkiv direction. Colonelcassad shares a map of Southern Donetsk direction, indicating recent RF advances and tactical movements. Colonelcassad shares video of reconnaissance elements from the Vostok group thanking subscribers for body armor, indicating reliance on public support. «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» shares a video with soldiers in tactical gear, reinforcing national pride. Филолог в засаде shares a video detailing the work of a Russian evacuation group from the 103rd Motor Rifle Regiment, 150th Motorized Rifle Division, operating in the Kostiantynivka direction. Воин DV demonstrates combined arms capabilities, using FPV drones to destroy an armored vehicle on a pre-placed mine in Alexandrogad. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's report on fierce battles and RF DRG destruction in Pokrovsk direction, indicating continued aggressive ground maneuvers. Operatyvnyi ZSU shares new video from "Donbas" battalion (18th NGU Brigade) providing additional footage from Chasiv Yar, directly refuting RF "TikToker" claims of capture. This represents UA's adaptive counter-propaganda strategy. MoD Russia shares a video on the liberation of Koptevo and Novotoretskoye in Donetsk People's Republic by Aleksandr Bushmelev, confirming RF ground offensive capabilities. MoD Russia shares a video of a soldier discussing the difficulties of movement, use of anti-drone ponchos, and motorcycle transport, indicating adaptive ground tactics and the challenges of sustaining operations. Операция Z shares a video stating Zelensky confirmed small groups of RF forces are breaking through into Pokrovsk. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing a Russian soldier with a severe facial injury on the Southern front, indicating the ongoing intensity of ground combat. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a request for contact from the 503rd regiment. Colonelcassad shares a video depicting a drone dropping an ordnance into a dugout/trench system. Zelenskiy / Official reports Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi states UA units are holding all positions, and are eliminating Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups in Pokrovsk and Dobropillia. ASTRA reports on the disappearance of two battalion commanders of the 5th Brigade in the "DNR" after being summoned to superiors, suggesting potential internal purges or discipline issues. Сливочный каприз shares photos and videos of damaged forested areas and military personnel movement in the Siversk - Ivano-Daryevka direction as of July 31, 2025. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides an operational update as of 22:00 (19:00Z) on July 31, 2025, detailing heavy combat particularly on the Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar directions, and confirming that RF forces are conducting assault operations in some areas. Colonelcassad shares a video titled "Combat work of Uragan MLRS #1st_tank_army Group Z," explicitly showing the firing of an Uragan MLRS and drone footage of the impact, indicating adaptive large-scale artillery support for ground forces. New update: Операция Z shares new photos and video claiming "Взятие Часов Яра: 217 полк водрузил флаги на последней улице на юге города, посрамив Зеленского," indicating continued RF ground efforts to claim control of Chasiv Yar. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video titled "Дякуємо таким московитам за те, що вони економлять наше БК і при цьому створюють яскраві кадри" showing UA drone footage of RF soldiers in a trench system. Сливочный каприз shares photos and videos of military activity in Sumy direction, showing personnel and vehicles, confirming ongoing ground operations. New message: Операция Z shares photo message with caption: ‼️🇺🇦🏴‍☠Бригада стирается под ноль: 90% солдат 34 бригады ВСУ не возвращаются с островов. ТАСС shares video of UAV operators of the "South" grouping destroying a BTR and armored vehicle of the AFU, with objective control footage provided, indicating ongoing RF ground force support by UAVs. Сливочный каприз shares image and video messages dated 27.07.25 showing military activity in Borova - Hrekivka area, including drone footage of casualties, confirming ongoing ground engagements involving the 237th Tank Regiment. New message: Colonelcassad shares a video showcasing a sniper team's training and operational readiness, including high-precision rifles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - noting UA denial of Chasiv Yar liberation and conflicting Kamianske reports)
• Electronic Warfare Deployment (Chasiv Yar): First confirmed operational deployment of Shipovnik-Aero. MoD Russia claims EW station destruction in Zaporozhye. Colonelcassad shares video of 'Rubikon' system targeting communication assets. Народная милиция ДНР claims destruction of Israeli-made AFU radar. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides drone footage showing successful disabling of EW equipment on a truck by Ukrainian forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Increased Loitering Munition Use (Chasiv Yar): 50% increase in Lancet strikes. TASS claims Lancet use in Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Enhanced FPV Drone Payload Threat (Avdiivka): Increasing reports indicate Russian FPV drones equipped with thermobaric warheads. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Aggressive RF Rhetoric: Escalation of threatening rhetoric from RF military bloggers/propagandists, open mockery of UA air defenses, explicit threats, celebration of civilian hits. New RF claims of UA defense collapse. Medvedev's latest statements (e.g., "Dead Hand") are IO. ARCHENGEL SPETSNAZ spreads unverified claims about Mexican cartel members in UA forces. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition frames Chasiv Yar as decisive. Alex Parker Returns amplifies this, and focuses on Trump's statements. ТАСС promotes conviction of couple for collecting military data. Alex Parker Returns comments on Crocus attack. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian media publishing genocidal rhetoric. Alex Parker Returns celebrates harm to UA veteran. Операция Z portrays internal UA political conflicts as "circus." Colonelcassad frames NABU/SAP vote as Western-imposed. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on liquidation of RF drone operator Daria Trofimova. Colonelcassad shares video of detained Crimean man, framing pro-UA views as "Nazi slogans." БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС provides photo of Russian propaganda calling for war crimes/genocide. Операция Z reports on teenager arrested for arsons. Операция Z claims Nicaragua officially recognized new territories. Janus Putkonen shares Zaluzhny "Vogue model" photo. Операция Z shares "Russian Gerans rip AFU to shreds." Colonelcassad immediately attributes the Aeroflot cyberattack to Western-supported Ukrainian hackers, framing it as foreign aggression. Alex Parker Returns continues to spread racist and divisive narratives related to the Crocus attack, exploiting ethnic stereotypes. Рыбарь propagates xenophobic narratives about "ethnic occupation of markets" by migrants, linking them to crime and illicit capital outflow, aiming to stir internal social unrest and justify discriminatory policies. Два майора's video on "SVO fighters won't give bad advice" suggests a propaganda effort to enhance trust in military personnel and their recommendations, possibly related to recruitment or internal compliance. Военкор Котенок reports on RF MoD figures for Ukrainian losses in Chasiv Yar, reinforcing RF claims of success. ТАСС reports MVD has put Sota journalists on wanted list, suppressing independent media. TASS reports Putin signed law allowing families of foreign fighters to apply for citizenship, indicating adaptive recruitment messaging. Alex Parker Returns highlights internal social friction, adapting to exploit societal divisions. TASS reports Putin signed law increasing fines for parents, showcasing state control over social narratives. STERNENKO's response to Trump's proposal, with aggressive rhetoric against Putin/Russia, indicates a reciprocal adaptation in online information warfare. Старше Эдды continues aggressive rhetoric about Chasiv Yar. Басурин о главном similarly reinforces aggressive narratives. Alex Parker Returns claims "Parker's magic button continues to work," a self-aggrandizing claim intended to project power and control. Операция Z emphasizes new law introducing fines for extremist searches, demonstrating an intent to tighten control over information and suppress any form of dissent or independent inquiry into government actions. Басурин о главном uses destroyed church video to blame UA and promote RF's narrative of defending religious sites. TASS reports RF embassy in Sweden accusing Swedish media of fake accusations concerning Ukrainian children, indicating a proactive narrative defense. TASS reports RKN's request to remove Speedtest Ookla, indicating an adaptation to tighten internet control. Alex Parker Returns's image with "Minimal Deposit from 100 rubles" could be interpreted as a low-level financial enticement or advertisement, potentially for recruitment or general support, part of a broad influence campaign. TASS reports Rubio stating US held contacts with Russian representatives, aiming to shape narrative on peace efforts. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС shares a propaganda video of a man in military-style beret, highlighting RF's use of personality-driven content. «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» uses anthropomorphic bears in military settings as a unique propaganda tactic. Рыбарь produces comic strips, indicating diversified propaganda methods. TASS shares Shvydkoy's full comment on the dismantling of the Aivazovsky monument, attempting to control the narrative regarding cultural heritage. Kotsnews shares a poll about Trump, reflecting RF's interest in shaping narratives around Western leadership. Alex Parker Returns comments on a new law blocking films that "discredit traditional values," indicating an adaptation to enforce moral censorship. Два майора's animated propaganda using anthropomorphic cats in military settings, indicating an adaptation of IO using AI/neural networks. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Peskov stated Putin would deliver an important address, possibly on Trump's threats, indicating a reactive posture. РБК-Україна similarly reports Putin's important statement. ASTRA reports on the death of Derk Sauer, founder of "Vedomosti" and director of "Dozhd". While not directly military, this indicates a capability to report on the internal media landscape of Russia and its associated personnel. ASTRA also reports a search of the Lipetsk KPRF premises, which RF media may use to frame internal political control measures. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message criticizing slow progress, which could be part of an internal narrative management or frustration sharing. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video featuring a White House press secretary stating Trump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize for his peace efforts, indicating RF's intent to promote a specific narrative about international diplomacy. Alex Parker Returns shares a video capturing multiple explosions in Kyiv at night, with the caption mocking Ukrainian air defenses, demonstrating a psychological adaptation to spread demoralization. Alex Parker Returns disseminates a White House statement that Trump has achieved effectiveness in one peace agreement or ceasefire per month, and deserves the Nobel Peace Prize, confirming RF's intent to amplify narratives favorable to their diplomatic objectives. MoD Russia posts a daily figure photo message which is a form of information operation. Старше Эдды comments on Trump's volatile mood, which is an attempt to shape narratives. ТАСС reports Putin signed a law refusing film distribution licenses for discrediting traditional values. Операция Z reports that Ukraine is building "dragon's teeth." Новости Москвы shares a video about a mother hitting her child in the Moscow region. This appears to be RF propaganda focused on alleged social decay in Ukraine, despite the content suggesting it is within Russia. Операция Z claims RF launched as many drones in July as the whole of last year, indicating a significant tactical shift to drone saturation and its propaganda implications. ASTRA reports on the appointment of Boris Добродеев as head of "Lesta" gaming studio, a strategic move by RF to control cultural influence within Russia. Операция Z claims "The surrender of Pokrovsk is a matter of time," citing The Telegraph, highlighting a new RF information operation to demoralize UA and signal impending success. STERNENKO reports Putin's important statement, then withdrawal. Военкор Котенок shares aerial photos of "liberated" Chasiv Yar, depicting extensive urban destruction, reinforcing RF claims of control and serving as propaganda. ASTRA shares photos depicting widespread destruction in Chasiv Yar after "liberation," reinforcing RF claims of control. Рыбарь provides a summary of July 31st, a form of information operation to control daily narratives. New updates: Операция Z shares new photos and video claiming Chasiv Yar capture, reinforcing propaganda. Alex Parker Returns shares new photo message about a judge and migrants, continuing to highlight internal social tensions. Kotsnews shares photo "Азертадж учит TASS географии" to undermine TASS's credibility. Рыбарь shares new photo message "📝О чём говорит Рыбарь📝" for narrative control. ТАСС reports Alexander Maximtsev, Chief of General Staff, stating "VKS RF destroy about 95% of enemy air attacks," a highly exaggerated propaganda claim. TASS shares photo message of Lavrov's article stating EU and NATO distort facts to rewrite history. Оперативний ЗСУ shares photo message on "Freedom of Speech in RF". Colonelcassad shares video rubrics "Happy guy" and "address to AFU servicemen" (propaganda). РБК-Україна shares videos of complaints about unknown drone attack. New message: ТАСС reports Германия вместе с остальной Европой при нынешних руководителях вырождается в подобие "Четвертого рейха". Об этом говорится в статье Лаврова, опубликованной в "Российской газете". New message: Операция Z shares photo message with caption: ‼️🇺🇦🏴‍☠Бригада стирается под ноль: 90% солдат 34 бригады ВСУ не возвращаются с островов. New message: ТАСС shares video featuring Sergey Mironov, Chairman of the 'A Just Russia – For Truth' party, discussing proposals related to depopulation, suggesting that families should be deported if a member violates the law. This is a clear propaganda effort to instill social control and xenophobia. New message: ТАСС shares photo of Hillary Clinton with caption: Штаб Клинтон в 2016 году работал над тем, чтобы "сфабриковать фальшивку о сговоре [ее соперника Дональда Трампа] с Россией". This is a clear information operation by TASS to discredit US political figures and influence public opinion in Russia. New message: ТАСС shares photo of Hillary Clinton with same caption. This indicates a coordinated disinformation effort. New message: ТАСС reports the National Museum of US History removed information on Trump's impeachments due to pressure from his administration, citing The Washington Post. This appears to be another attempt to discredit the US political system and imply censorship or manipulation by the US government, consistent with RF's information warfare tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• RF: VDV appealing for drone/Starlink donations due to EW. Indicates localized logistics/equipment shortfalls or reliance on external/civilian supply chains for specific items. TASS reports train movement resumed in Volgograd after UAV debris. MoD Russia claims EW station destroyed, implicitly aiding RF logistics. Colonelcassad shares video of reconnaissance elements from the Vostok group thanking subscribers for body armor, indicating reliance on public support for some equipment. TASS reports the Belgorod-Shebekino road is closed for traffic due to shelling, impacting local logistics. TASS reports a 1,200-car queue on the Crimean Bridge, indicating logistical bottlenecks. TASS reports a mudslide at Upper Lars border crossing with Georgia, temporarily disrupting supply lines. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UA: PM Shmyhal warns of salary arrears if budget not amended, indicating potential financial strain. Civilian donations stable but needs grown due to combat intensity in Pokrovsk. UA seeking excavators. РБК-Україна shares fundraising video for evacuation vehicle repair. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• RF C2: Appears effective in coordinating complex layered aerial attacks on Kyiv. Continued, sustained ground pressure on Pokrovsk indicates effective command. Deployment of Shipovnik-Aero EW system suggests centralized control over advanced assets. RF MoD data on AFU losses in Chasiv Yar and reports on "liberation" indicates centralized propaganda dissemination from high command. The release of a multitude of new laws signed by Putin suggests a highly centralized and proactive legislative and executive branch, directly impacting internal control measures. The appointment of Boris Dobrodeev to "Lesta" (gaming studio) also implies a centralized, top-down approach to shaping information and influence within Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UA C2: Ukrainian General Staff holding meetings to increase unit capabilities. Syrisky demands maximum transfer of training underground. Syrisky announces 51-day BZVP. Zelenskiy / Official speaks with new Polish President. Zelenskiy / Official signs law guaranteeing independent operation of anti-corruption bodies and financing defense sector. Operatyvnyi ZSU provides details on additional 15 days of vacation for servicemen, announced by Zelensky, through Colonel Palisa, indicating a structured C2. General Staff and Airborne Assault Forces are shown improving communication. Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi is actively reporting on frontline situations (Pokrovsk), indicating a direct line from front to high command. Zelenskiy / Official delivering daily addresses indicates visible and direct leadership. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Posturing: UA forces continue to hold defensive lines, particularly in Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk, despite heavy RF pressure. Active in border areas (Kursk Oblast) and counter-UAV operations across multiple oblasts. Engineering troops are actively demining and establishing defensive barriers. Military leadership is focused on improving unit capabilities, training, and welfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Readiness: High level of combat engagement indicates active readiness. Recruitment efforts are ongoing ("Predator" Brigade). Training is being emphasized (youth fire training, 82nd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade communication). The expansion of the "18-24" program for young volunteers suggests efforts to maintain readiness and integrate new personnel effectively. Continued successful intercepts of RF UAVs and missiles (including Iskander-K) demonstrate continued air defense readiness. Successful counter-drone operations indicate continued tactical readiness against RF UAVs. Ukrainian SSO operators clearing settlements in Kursk Oblast indicates active offensive reconnaissance and direct action capabilities across the border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:
  • High Intercept Rate: Ukrainian Air Force and PPO successfully shot down/suppressed 291 out of 309 RF UAVs and 3 out of 8 Iskander-K missiles overnight, including one Iskander-K heading towards Kyiv by the Presidential Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Successful Drone Operations: "BULAVA" unit used a drone with grenade launcher. 66th Mechanized Brigade conducted successful FPV drone strikes. NGU "Khartia" Brigade destroyed a Russian ground robotic complex. Phoenix unit successfully targeted Russian transport. 413th Battalion "Raid" disabled an enemy Buk-M1 SAM, GAZ Tigr, truck, and EW equipment. STERNENKO reports SUNSTRIKE unit destroyed two more RF drones (Supercam and Zala). Apache FPV drone group conducting successful reconnaissance and strike operations. UA drone footage effectively refuting RF claims on Chasiv Yar from 24th Mechanized Brigade and "Donbas" battalion is a significant counter-IO success. HIMARS strike on North Korean M-1978 "Koksan" self-propelled artillery, with confirmed ammunition detonation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Defense: 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade (10th OGShBr) successfully repelled an enemy assault, destroying 13 motorcycles. UA units holding positions on Pokrovsk sector (Syrskyi report). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Counter-Intelligence/Security: SBU detained FSB agent in Kharkiv. Collaborationist deputy in Zaporizhzhia exposed. Corruption in quadcopter purchase and pesticide production exposed. Former state employee helping enemy target strategic enterprise detained. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Demining Efforts: Over 205 hectares demined in Kharkiv, nearly 3,000 hectares cleared in Kherson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Legislative & Welfare Achievements: Rada adopted NABU/SAP bill, increased defense spending. Law signed guaranteeing independent operation of anti-corruption bodies and defense financing. Servicemen granted additional 15 days vacation. "18-24" program expanded. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Setbacks:
  • Mass Casualties in Kyiv: Severe human cost from layered RF attacks: 16 confirmed fatalities (including 2 children) and 159 injured (including 12 children) in Kyiv. Police personnel among injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Infrastructure Damage: Railway infrastructure damaged in Kyiv. Agricultural and transport enterprises hit in Pavlohrad. Residential buildings hit in Kyiv and Kramatorsk. Sumy Oblast administration building struck for third time. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Persistent RF Ground Pressure: RF continues active advancements on Pokrovsk axis, with claimed penetration into residential areas. Contested situation in Chasiv Yar (despite UA denials of liberation, the intensity of fighting indicates a severe challenge). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Environmental Damage: Significant fires and destruction in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia (700 hectares of grain burned). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Requirements: Continued humanitarian aid for civilian populations (e.g., Kyiv casualties). Increased air defense capabilities against reactive Shaheds and ballistic missiles. Support for demining operations. Continued donations for FPV drones and Starlink (RF VDV appealing, implying UA need is similar). Excavators for defensive construction. Additional funding to avoid salary arrears. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Constraints: Potential budget shortfalls leading to salary arrears. Increased combat intensity in Pokrovsk draining resources. RF EW efforts (Shipovnik-Aero) degrading drone effectiveness, necessitating countermeasures and potentially increasing drone loss rates. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Narrative:
  • Victim Blaming/Terrorism Justification: RF sources openly celebrating Kyiv attacks, mocking UA air defenses, and claiming "enemy capital" hits. Blaming UA for civilian casualties (e.g., playground in Zaporizhzhia, alleged attack on civilian vehicle in Polohivskyi district, claimed church shelling in Nagorno-Karabakh). Accusations against Ukraine and Poland of operating special services in Belarus. Disinformation regarding foreign nuclear weapons in UK.
  • Victory Claims: Asserting complete liberation of Chasiv Yar and significant advances on Pokrovsk axis, despite UA refutations. Inflated UA loss figures (e.g., 17k personnel in Chasiv Yar). Claims of NATO turning Baltic into zone of instability.
  • Internal Strength/Legitimacy: Promotion of Putin's new laws as strengthening internal control and welfare. Highlighting detentions of "saboteurs" and those collecting military data. Promoting the "effectiveness" of RF military actions (e.g., high drone/missile interception rates). Russia as "guarantor of security" for Belarus. Nicaragua's recognition of annexed territories as a diplomatic success. Discrediting Western figures (Hillary Clinton, Trump's impeachments). Demonization of EU/NATO as "Fourth Reich."
  • Exploiting Internal UA Issues: Highlighting protests regarding NABU/SAP (before passage). Using images of destroyed buildings to portray UA weakness.
  • Adaptive Propaganda: Use of "reactive Gerans" narrative. Anthropomorphic bears in military settings («Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат»). Comic strips (Rybar). AI-generated content (animated cats). Personality-driven content (man in military beret). Self-aggrandizing claims ("Parker's magic button"). Calls for donations framed as supporting troops. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UA Narrative:
  • Resilience & Resistance: Emphasizing continued defense of positions (Syrskyi on Pokrovsk, refutation of Chasiv Yar liberation). Highlighting successful downing of RF aerial targets. Showcasing military training and new military welfare policies.
  • Exposing RF Atrocities: Highlighting civilian casualties in Kyiv and Kramatorsk, including children. Sharing shocking footage of RF strikes. Emphasizing destruction in Chasiv Yar.
  • Call for Support: Fundraising efforts for drones and evacuation vehicles. Appeals to international community (UN Security Council meeting).
  • Counter-Propaganda: Direct refutation of RF Chasiv Yar claims with video evidence. Highlighting discrepancies in RF claims. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukraine:
  • Kyiv: High civilian casualties (16 dead, 159 injured) leading to a declared day of mourning. Likely strong anti-RF sentiment and resolve, but also grief and shock. Emergency services actively engaged, boosting morale.
  • Pokrovsk: High combat intensity likely causing significant stress and casualties, but continued resistance. Civilian donations indicate public support.
  • General: Public actively engaged in civic initiatives (NABU/SAP protests/support), fundraising. Military welfare initiatives (vacation time, education) aim to boost servicemember morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia:
  • Internal: Arrests for "extremism" and "discrediting military" suggest fear and suppression of dissent. Reports of increased fines for parents and stricter laws on VPN use indicate growing state control, potentially impacting public freedom and sentiment. Reliance on public donations for military equipment (drones, Starlink, body armor) suggests some public support but also state resource constraints. Reports of train movement disruptions due to UAV debris and civilian injuries/fatalities from shelling in border regions likely cause local unrest/fear. Reports of internal ethnic/social tensions (migrants, pensioners fined for comments). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Support for Ukraine:
  • US: US Senate Committee supported $800M for Ukraine and $225M for Baltic states. US diplomat John Kelly calling for ceasefire by August 8th (Trump's initiative) suggests continued US engagement on peace, though without progress so far.
  • EU: EU will not freeze financial support after NABU and SAP independence restoration.
  • Poland: New Polish President speaking with Zelensky.
  • International Condemnation: Ukraine convening emergency UN Security Council meeting due to new wave of terror. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Support for Russia:
  • Syria: RF Defence Minister Belousov met with Syrian Defence Minister in Moscow, discussing cooperation. Putin received Syrian Foreign Minister. Strengthened diplomatic ties.
  • Laos: Belousov held talks with Laotian Defence Minister, discussing military-technical cooperation and joint exercises. Seven documents signed, including roadmap for nuclear cooperation. Laotian President gifted elephants to Putin.
  • Nicaragua: Officially recognized annexed territories of Ukraine as part of Russia.
  • Belarus: Lukashenka stating Russia is guarantor of security.
  • India: Indian state-owned oil refineries suspending purchases of Russian oil amid Trump's customs threats/EU sanctions is a setback, but the overall relationship is complex.
  • BRICS: Peskov stated BRICS work not oriented against other countries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Neutral/Other:
  • Trump's Peace Initiative: Trump stating desire for peace in Ukraine by August 8th and threatening sanctions on RF if not met. US held contacts with RF, but no progress. Trump plans to visit Russia after Israel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moldova: Intends to solve Transnistrian problem only after RF withdrawal.
  • Hungary/Estonia: Do not plan to recognize Palestine for now.
  • Poland: "Secretly" testing American autonomous boats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• Sustained Layered Aerial Assaults: RF will continue and potentially intensify large-scale, multi-vector aerial attacks targeting Kyiv and other major urban centers (including residential areas, logistics hubs like Pavlohrad, and critical infrastructure). These will likely involve initial waves of Shaheds (including reactive variants to saturate air defenses), followed by ballistic (Iskander-K) and cruise missiles, particularly during periods of poor visibility or at night. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Relentless Ground Offensive on Pokrovsk Axis: RF ground forces will maintain high operational tempo on the Pokrovsk axis, attempting to exploit any breaches with combined-arms assaults, leveraging FPV drones, and possibly incorporating thermobaric systems if tactical conditions allow. RF will continue to attempt to encircle Kostiantynivka from the Oleksandropol-Kalynove area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Information Warfare Escalation: RF will continue to aggressively disseminate propaganda claiming territorial gains, inflating UA losses, and discrediting UA leadership and Western support. They will use perceived successes (e.g., Chasiv Yar claims) and civilian casualties (e.g., Kyiv) to demoralize UA and shape international opinion. Increased focus on internal narratives of national unity and strength will continue, alongside suppression of dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• Decisive Breakthrough on Pokrovsk Axis: RF could achieve a rapid, decisive breakthrough on the Pokrovsk axis, leveraging a concentrated force of mechanized infantry and airborne units supported by overwhelming artillery and air power, leading to the collapse of local UA defenses and a deep penetration towards Myrnohrad or Pokrovsk itself. This would open a critical avenue of advance and could force a significant UA tactical withdrawal. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Large-Scale Cyber/Hybrid Attack on UA Critical Infrastructure: Beyond current kinetic strikes, RF could launch a coordinated, high-impact cyber-attack against UA energy grids, telecommunications, or financial systems, possibly coupled with kinetic strikes, to cause widespread societal disruption and degrade UA's ability to sustain military operations. This would be a significant escalation in hybrid warfare. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - but high impact)
• Shift in Northern Operations: A renewed, larger-scale ground offensive or deeper cross-border raids from Sumy Oblast or the Kursk direction (beyond current small infantry groups/SSO operations) to draw UA reserves from key axes, potentially targeting cities like Sumy or Chernihiv. While current operations are limited, increased RF ground force presence in these areas could signal a shift. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Short-Term (0-72 hours):
  • Aerial Attacks: Expect continued high-volume Shahed and missile attacks on Kyiv and other major cities. Increased KAB usage on frontline positions (Kharkiv-Donetsk border, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy). Decision Point: Allocation of additional air defense assets to vulnerable areas.
  • Ground Operations: Intense fighting on Pokrovsk axis will persist. Continued RF attempts to establish control in Chasiv Yar, despite UA refutations. Small unit probing/assaults in Sumy. Decision Point: Commitment of UA reserves to stabilize Pokrovsk or exploit potential RF overextension elsewhere.
  • Information Operations: RF will continue to amplify "victories" and attempt to demoralize UA following Kyiv attacks. Decision Point: UA counter-narrative strategy to maintain morale and international support.
• Medium-Term (1-2 weeks):
  • RF Objectives: RF will likely continue to consolidate gains and prepare for follow-on offensives on the Donetsk front, aiming to secure Kostiantynivka and potentially push towards Sloviansk/Kramatorsk, establishing new logistics and EW positions.
  • UA Response: UA will prioritize force generation, internal security, and seeking further international military and financial assistance to sustain defensive operations and potentially prepare limited counter-offensives.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

• Air Defense Effectiveness: Require detailed post-strike analysis on the effectiveness of current UA air defense systems against "reactive Shaheds" and Iskander-K missiles, particularly concerning warning times and interception rates for different systems.
  • Collection Requirement: HUMINT from PPO crews, IMINT/OSINT of RF strike patterns and UAV wreckage analysis.
• RF Intentions on Pokrovsk: Need clearer indicators on RF’s specific follow-on objectives and available reserves should they achieve a deeper penetration in the Pokrovsk axis. What are their planned consolidation measures?
  • Collection Requirement: SIGINT on RF C2 communications, IMINT of RF staging areas and logistics nodes, HUMINT from captured RF personnel.
• EW Countermeasures: Urgent requirement for feedback from frontline units on the impact of Shipovnik-Aero and any effective countermeasures being implemented or developed.
  • Collection Requirement: TECHINT from EW specialists, HUMINT from drone operators.
• Internal RF Stability: Continued monitoring of internal security developments within RF, including public sentiment, social unrest, and elite dynamics, to assess potential impacts on military cohesion and sustainability.
  • Collection Requirement: OSINT on social media trends, HUMINT from cross-border sources.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

• Immediate Air Defense Prioritization: Reposition and reinforce mobile air defense assets, particularly Gepard or similar short-range air defense (SHORAD) systems, to provide point defense for critical infrastructure and residential areas in Kyiv and other major cities, focusing on UAV and low-flying missile threats. Prioritize ISR to identify Iskander launch locations in Kursk Oblast for pre-emptive targeting.
• Accelerated Defensive Preparations (Pokrovsk): Expedite the construction of layered defensive lines, including anti-tank obstacles ("dragon's teeth"), minefields, and reinforced trench networks, along the likely avenues of RF advance west of Pokrovsk. Integrate and pre-position ATGM teams and additional indirect fire assets to counter anticipated mechanized assaults.
• Counter-Propaganda and Morale Operations: Launch an immediate and highly visible public information campaign to counter RF disinformation regarding Chasiv Yar and other claimed successes. Highlight RF atrocities against civilians, especially the Kyiv attack. Share verifiable successes of UA air defense and ground operations to boost national and military morale, and reinforce international support.
• EW Countermeasures Dissemination: Immediately disseminate updated flight protocols and technical guidance for drone operators in the Zaporizhzhia sector to mitigate the effects of Shipovnik-Aero and similar EW systems. Prioritize research and development of more robust anti-jamming and spoofing technologies for UAVs.
• International Engagement: Engage international partners at the highest levels to secure immediate additional air defense systems and ammunition, particularly for ballistic missile interception. Advocate for increased sanctions targeting RF's military-industrial complex to degrade their capacity for drone and missile production.

---

END REPORT