Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 312137Z JUL 25

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide missile and UAV threat from RF persists. President Zelensky reports over 300 drones and 8 missiles launched by Russia overnight, with UA Air Force and Operatyvnyi ZSU reporting 291 enemy targets shot down/suppressed, including 288/309 strike UAVs and 3/8 Iskander-K missiles. Discrepancies likely due to suppression vs. physical destruction or different counting methodologies. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 317 aerial attack assets engaged. ASTRA reports 5 direct missile hits and 21 drone hits overnight. Operatyvnyi ZSU provides OSINT data indicating a 1378% increase in "Shahed" and imitation drones launched by RF in July 2025 compared to July 2024. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kyiv Oblast: RF conducted a ballistic missile strike on Kyiv following a very high-volume Shahed UAV attack and previous ballistic/cruise missile strikes. KMA reports impacts on residential buildings in Sviatoshynskyi and Solomianskyi districts. Latest reporting indicates 16 confirmed fatalities (updated from 15), including 2 children (one 6-year-old identified as Matvii Marchenko), and 159 injured (updated from 135), including 12 children, with 10 individuals missing. Emergency services are conducting search and rescue. National Police confirm traffic blocked on several streets. Klitschko reports police personnel among the injured, noting the highest number of injured children in Kyiv since the start of the war. RF sources overtly celebrate attacks on "enemy capital" and mock Ukrainian air defenses, claiming Zhuliany Airport (Patriot SAM position and UAV assembly workshops) and industrial enterprises were targeted. Ukraine's Minister of Internal Affairs, Ihor Klimenko, is on-site. Railway infrastructure in one of Kyiv's districts was damaged, leading to temporary use of diesel locomotives. New video footage shows Shahed impact and drone footage shows destroyed apartment block in Sviatoshynskyi. Minister Klimenko confirms Kyiv was likely attacked by "reactive Shaheds." Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms Kyiv attacked by reactive Shaheds. РБК-Україна confirms 135 injured, youngest 5 months old. Man rescued from rubble. STERNENKO reports "Umma" mosque damaged. Colonelcassad shares photos, claiming military-industrial infrastructure hit. Mother and six-year-old son found dead under rubble. DSNS aviation involved in rescue. КМВА confirms 124 casualties (updated to 135 injured total, 15 fatalities). КМВА reports air raid alert ended. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and РБК-Україна share video of a girl surviving a fall from the 9th floor. Олексій Білошицький shares bodycam footage of patrol police response. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF struck Kyiv with Iskander-K missiles from Kursk Oblast, noting short warning time. Оперативний ЗСУ reports 13 killed (updated from 11). Kyiv has declared tomorrow, August 1st, a day of mourning. Военкор Котенок reports British sources complain reactive "Gerans" are much harder to shoot down. Оперативний ЗСУ shares Reuters/ABC News video showing multiple explosions over Kyiv overnight, confirming intense strikes. РБК-Україна provides video of Ukrainian Presidential Brigade successfully downing an Iskander-K missile heading towards Kyiv. РБК-Україна reports police senior lieutenant Liliya Stepanchuk killed. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares shocking footage of RF strikes on Kyiv. Air raid alert in Kyiv ended at 18:23Z. Colonelcassad shares video of explosions in Kyiv. КМВА (Kyiv Military Administration) reports that search and rescue operations in Solomianskyi district are complete, but continue in Sviatoshynskyi. KMA states that thousands of Kyiv residents seek assistance after each mass attack. Alex Parker Returns shares a video capturing multiple explosions in Kyiv, followed by a large plume of smoke, confirming significant impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poltava Oblast: Threat of enemy strike UAVs from the northeast reported by Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. New update: ⚠ Увага! Миргород, Гадяч, Комишня (Полтавщина)! indicating continued UAV activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: КАBs inbound. RF conducted missile strike on a suburb of Kharkiv (Vasyshcheve), resulting in fires and 8 casualties, including rescue workers. RF sources claim powerful strike on UA Armed Forces warehouse and advance towards Kharkiv-Kupyansk road. Oleg Synyehubov confirms significant civilian damage. 7 settlements impacted in last 24 hours. Rescue efforts ongoing, utilizing LUF CRV robot. Liveuamap Source reports clashes near Vovchansk, Krasne Pershe and Kamyanka. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports FSB agent detained for adjusting RF shelling of Kharkiv energy infrastructure. Oleg Synyehubov reports over 205 hectares demined in a week. Координаційний штаб met with families of missing/captured servicemen. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAVs on north and east, with engagement. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video showing Vovchansk in ruins. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KABs inbound. Kadyrov_95 shares thermal footage of Akhmat special forces engaging UA manpower in Kharkiv direction, claiming success. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares drone footage of military activity in Volchansk vicinity, showing personnel movement, targeted areas, and damaged structures, indicating ongoing reconnaissance and targeting operations. MoD Russia reports Supercam S350 UAV teams of the Sever Group of Forces located a control post of heavy drones and a manpower cluster of the AFU in Kharkov direction. Z комитет + карта СВО shares a tactical map of Volchansk, showing the situation. Colonelcassad shares a video documenting strikes on various military assets, including those in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued RF aerial operations. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares video of drone footage from the 42nd Mechanized Brigade depicting combat scenarios, explosions, and reconnaissance. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy UAV on western outskirts of Kharkiv, possible PPO work. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk (Pokrovsk Axis): RF forces are most actively advancing. Battles in Dimitrov (Myrnohrad), improved RF positions in Rodinskoye. RF sources claim significant advancement towards Volodymyrivka, "pinching" Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk. RF sources now claim assault units entered residential areas of Pokrovsk, establishing positions near the market, asserting ~5km advance. Drone footage shows destruction. RF using FPV drones against UA personnel. RF MoD claims seizure of fortified areas on approaches to Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). TASS claims RF advanced 1.5 km near Zelenaya Dolina and Karpovka. "Операция Z" claims elimination of foreign mercenaries near Pokrovsk. TASS claims "South" group destroyed Western equipment near Konstantinovka. Water supply to four cities reduced. New КАBs inbound reported by Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Liveuamap Source reports clashes near Popiv Yar, Fedorivka, Novoekonomichne, Promin, Lysivka, Zvirivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Horikhove, towards Boykivka, Novopavlivka, Pokrovsk, Rodynske, Chervonyy Lyman, Novoukrayinka, Dachne. STERNENKO reports donations stable but needs grown due to combat intensity in Pokrovsk. Военкор Котенок shares map of Pokrovsk direction. Janus Putkonen claims RF advancing into Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, and Kupyansk encirclement tightening. STERNENKO shares video of 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade destroying enemy transport with fiber-optic drones. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports enemy DRGs operating deep in Pokrovsk. РБК-Україна reports a strike on the center of Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a destroyed residential building. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a photo of destruction with preliminary casualties. РБК-Україна reports one killed and over 10 wounded, half of a 5-story building destroyed. ASTRA confirms RF struck residential building with casualties. Народная милиция ДНР claims destruction of Israeli-made AFU radar near Druzhkivka. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KABs incoming to Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. Z комитет + карта СВО shares a tactical map of the Krasnolimanskoe direction (likely Siversk/Lyman direction), showing control of territory and defensive structures as of July 31, 2025, indicating ongoing ground activity. Colonelcassad shares a map focusing on Novopavlovskoye direction (Southern Donetsk direction) as of July 31, 2025, indicating RF advances. Операция Z shares a photo message claiming RF is completing the defeat of the enemy in the Oleksandropol-Kalynove area, effectively encircling Kostiantynivka. TASS reports The Daily Telegraph claims UA has lost hope of holding Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk). MoD Russia shares a video titled "Serviceman of an assault detachment Aleksandr Bushmelev spoke in detail about liberation of Koptevo and Novotoretskoye in the Donetsk People's Republic," confirming ongoing RF ground operations aimed at territorial gains in Donetsk. Филолог в засаде shares a video showing the aftermath of an attack on a residential area with significant damage to buildings and a damaged vehicle, likely in the Konstantinovka direction, indicating continued impact on civilian areas. Zelenskiy / Official reports Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's report states UA units are holding all positions in the Pokrovsk sector. Операция Z claims "The surrender of Pokrovsk is a matter of time," citing The Telegraph, highlighting a new RF information operation to demoralize UA. New update: НгП раZVедка shares video "⚠️Уничтожение моста. Константиновка." showing a thermal drone video of an explosion on or near a road, confirming continued RF targeting of infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar Direction: RF MoD, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Операция Z, and Kotsnews all claim the complete liberation of Chasiv Yar by Russian forces. TASS reports RF forces destroyed largest grouping of AFU there. First confirmed operational deployment of Shipovnik-Aero mobile EW complex. 50% increase in Lancet strikes. UA drone successfully targeted RF SA-13, fortified position, and 2S1 Gvozdika. RF footage shows Russian flags raised in Chasiv Yar (Ognuporny Plant, Levanevsky, Shevchenko, Pivdennyi microdistricts). TASS reports UA defenses collapsed after Chasiv Yar loss. DeepState map contradicts RF claims. TASS claims RF evacuated population. Воин DV publishes "Chasiv Yar has fallen!" video. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition repeats liberation claim. Alex Parker Returns claims Chasiv Yar liberated, next target Sloviansk-Kramatorsk. Liveuamap Source reports clashes near Chasiv Yar, Minkivka, Novomarkove. РБК-Україна reports OSUV "Khortytsia" spokesman Trehubov refuted RF claims. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms refutation. Belousov congratulated VDV units. Рыбарь and Военкор Котенок publish videos claiming "liberation." MoD Russia shares video of paratroopers raising flags. DeepState directly refutes, calling it "flag-waving" action. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares DeepState refutation. РБК-УкраїНА reports on refutation. Colonelcassad reports UA "confirms factual loss" but retains localized presence (unverified). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition states Chasiv Yar under RF control, next step offensive on Sloviansk-Kramatorsk. TASS reports AFU withdrew to Konstantinovka. Старше Эдды further claims Chasiv Yar is under RF control and will be a staging area for Sloviansk-Kramatorsk offensive. Басурин о главном similarly claims Chasiv Yar liberation and offensive on Kostyantynivka. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video from 63rd Brigade showing Ukrainian tank operations around a settlement with smoke and explosions, likely in the Chasiv Yar area, indicating ongoing combat. Николаевский Ванёк shares drone footage explicitly refuting RF claims of Chasiv Yar liberation, showing drone strikes on RF personnel and destroyed vehicles. TASS (Yan Gagin) claims RF forces have established fire control over "dozens of kilometers" around Chasiv Yar. TASS (Marochko) claims UA forces will be forced to retreat from Donetsk Oblast after Chasiv Yar liberation. Colonelcassad reports RF MoD data on AFU losses in Chasiv Yar, claiming 17,210 personnel and 1,840 armored vehicles/artillery pieces, including Western equipment, were destroyed. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a photo message stating "ЧАСОВ ЯР – НАШ!" with a map overlay. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video from 24th Mechanized Brigade refuting Russian TikToks about Chasiv Yar, explicitly showing troop movements, artillery strikes, and enemy losses in the area, including destroyed vehicles and casualties. Colonelcassad describes the difficulties of the battle for Chasiv Yar. Operatyvnyi ZSU shares video from "Donbas" battalion (18th NGU Brigade) providing additional footage from Chasiv Yar, directly refuting RF "TikToker" claims of capture. This video shows drone footage targeting and destroying Russian military assets, including an armored vehicle and a building. Zelenskiy / Official refutes Russian disinformation regarding Chasiv Yar. Alex Parker Returns shares photos of the devastation in Chasiv Yar, reinforcing the intensity of fighting. Военкор Котенок shares aerial photos of "liberated" Chasiv Yar, depicting extensive urban destruction, reinforcing RF claims of control. ASTRA shares photos depicting widespread destruction in Chasiv Yar after "liberation," reinforcing RF claims of control. New update: Операция Z shares new photos and video claiming "Взятие Часов Яра: 217 полк водрузил флаги на последней улице на юге города, посрамив Зеленского," and a video showing extensive destruction and individuals with a flag. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - RF claims highly propagandistic and directly refuted by UA sources, including new video evidence. RF "flag-waving" likely occurred in already occupied ruins, not the city center or areas under UA control. The latest RF claim of UA confirmation is unverified and contradictory to public UA statements. UA video refutation is a strong indicator. RF MoD loss figures are likely inflated for propaganda purposes. ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA reinforces RF claims. New RF claims of flags on "last street" in the south remain unverified by independent sources and are contradicted by UA statements/videos of ongoing combat. The aerial video provided by Operatsiya Z confirms widespread destruction but does not definitively confirm RF control of the entire city or the "last street" claimed.)
  • Siversk Direction: 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade (10th OGShBr) successfully repelled an enemy assault, destroying 13 motorcycles. TASS reports RF forces destroyed Ukrainian defensive line near Serebryanka. Liveuamap Source reports clashes near Hryhorivka, Serebryanka, Vyyimka, Zvanivka and Fedorivka. STERNENKO shares video of SPEAR Group B 118th Territorial Defense Brigade engaging and destroying a Russian vehicle in the Siversk direction. Сливочный каприз shares photo message with map overlay of Krasny Liman - Zelenaya Dolina, likely referring to the Siversk/Lyman direction, indicating ongoing RF activity on 29 JUL 25. Colonelcassad shares a map with a caption stating RF forces are advancing in the Siversk direction. Сливочный каприз shares photos and videos of damaged forested areas and military personnel movement in the Siversk - Ivano-Daryevka direction as of July 31, 2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy Oblast: Russians continue assaulting with small infantry groups. Enemy UAVs detected. KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. Russia struck Sumy Oblast administration building for third time. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports likely reconnaissance UAV detected, engaged. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Ussuri paratroopers operating from Sumy direction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports КАBs inbound. Liveuamap Source reports UA repelled 32 RF assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky. TASS claims "Geran-2" and "Lancet" inflicted damage. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAV on north of Sumy. Два майора shares video of ZALA Z-16 targeting for MLRS during ammunition depot destruction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB inbound. TASS reports destruction of AFU assault group in Khrapovshchyna, Sumy Oblast. Z комитет + карта СВО shares a military map of the Sumy Direction, showing the operational situation as of July 31, 2025, with marked areas and symbols. Два майора shares a video of an explosion in agricultural fields on the Sumy direction, likely indicating an ordnance strike. РБК-Україна reports Sumy will join the day of mourning for Kyiv fatalities on August 1st. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Ukrainian SSO operators clearing a settlement in Kursk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAV north of Konotop, Sumy Oblast, and that means for shooting down have been engaged. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Zelenskiy / Official reports ongoing Russian strikes on Sumy. Два майора shares a video call for donations for the Sumy direction, featuring three individuals in military attire, suggesting ongoing combat and resource needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RF KABs confirmed inbound. RF active in recruiting locals. RF sources claim UA shelling of playground, injuring three children. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports continued RF attacks on civilian infrastructure in Orikhiv, Hulyaypole, and Kamianske. RF 7th Airborne Division appealing for drone/Starlink donations due to EW. Operatyvnyi ZSU and ASTRA confirm 2 casualties: 17-year-old boy and 64-year-old woman injured. Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation airstrikes at Bilohirya. Liveuamap Source reports clashes near Plavni and Malynivka. MoD Russia claims howitzer crew destroyed EW station. Сили оборони Півдня України explicitly refutes RF claims of capturing Kamianske. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms refutation of Kamianske capture. Zelenskiy / Official reports cynical RF attack two days ago on prison, killing 16, wounding 43. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues warning ("УВАГА🚨"). Офіс Генерального прокурора reports collaborator deputy transferred 24,000 tons of harvest to RF, causing 56 million UAH damages. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports almost 700 hectares of grain destroyed by fires. DeepState indicates occupation of Kam'yans'ke, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports Nikopolshchyna experienced a dozen enemy attacks with FPV drones and artillery, hitting Nikopol, Marhanetska, Chervonohryhorivska, Myrivska, and Pokrovska communities. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports air raid alert ended. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating VDV presence. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares multiple photo messages detailing events in July, including visits by the Prosecutor General, aid distribution, and agricultural efforts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares thermal footage from the Zaporizhzhia front, showing potential vehicle or personnel activity. Два майора shares a photo message attributed to the Governor of Zaporizhzhia Oblast (occupied), discussing events and possibly damages. ТАСС reports three fatalities, including a child, from an attack on a car in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, citing Balitsky. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports three fatalities in Polohivskyi district after Ukrainian forces attacked a civilian vehicle. Два майора shares a new aerial reconnaissance video from the Zaporizhzhia front, highlighting thermal signatures of vehicles or armored units and linear fortifications, indicating continued ground activity. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video appealing for drones and Starlink from the 7th Division in Zaporizhzhia direction, highlighting equipment needs. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares a video featuring Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reporting on the Pokrovsk direction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Два майора shares aerial footage from the Zaporizhzhia front showing multiple explosions, indicating intense ongoing artillery or air strikes. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Conflicting reports on Kamianske. New photo messages from Zaporizhzhia indicate continued civilian life and administrative activity despite ongoing conflict.)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): Enemy attacked Nikopolshchyna with FPV drones and artillery. Воин DV claims 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade destroyed UA armored vehicle/truck. New group of strike UAVs detected heading northwest. Explosions in Samara. Ukrainian PPO destroyed 15 enemy drones. Serhiy Lysak confirms region hit by rocket/drone strikes, including agricultural and transport enterprises in Pavlohrad. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports aviation weapon use threat in Sinelnikovskiy district. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches on border of Donetsk, Dnipropetrovik, Zaporizhzhia. Colonelcassad claims Iskander-M strike on tuberculosis dispensary in Kamianske. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) and Олександр Вілкул share photo messages regarding military equipment transfer to UA forces in Kryvyi Rih. Два майора shares a video titled "Днепропетровск," showing a large explosion and fire, likely from a recent strike. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video displaying a large plume of smoke rising, likely from a significant event such as a fire or explosion, potentially in Dnipropetrovsk. Colonelcassad shares a video showing the aftermath of recent attacks in Dnipropetrovsk, with heavily damaged industrial or military facilities, twisted metal, and smoke plumes. Mash на Донбассе reports a school collapsed in Makeevka. New update: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports new groups of enemy UAVs on the southeastern side of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a northwest course. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson Oblast: Ukrainian engineering troops cleared nearly 3,000 hectares of mines. RF forces dropping flags onto railway bridge near Kherson (psychological operation). Два майора shares video titled "Kherson direction," showing destroyed building and "Oduvanchik" (Dandelion) wireframe structure for drone protection. Liveuamap Source reports UA repelled 5 RF assaults. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares drone targeting video. Mash на Донбассе reports two fatalities and one severely injured from road accident in Ilovaisk, involving civilian and military personnel. Два майора shares a drone video from the Kherson direction, showing an explosion in a residential area. Colonelcassad shares a photo of a destroyed 2S22 "Bohdana" SAU in Kherson Oblast, dated July 4, 2025. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of threat of enemy strike UAVs from occupied territories of Kherson Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports threat of enemy strike UAVs from the Black Sea in Mykolaiv Oblast. New update: Народная милиция ДНР shares video of humanitarian aid being delivered in Kherson Oblast, featuring civilians and aid workers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Threat of enemy strike UAVs from south. Shahed UAVs reported heading north-northeast. UA reports household building caught fire in Kremenchuk district due to UAV debris. New update: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 🛵 Кіровоградська, Черкаська, Одеська області - загроза застосування ворогом ударних БпЛА! confirming continued threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Western Ukraine: Air raid alert due to strike UAVs gradually spreading. Shaheds reported moving towards / through Zhytomyr Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kryvyi Rih: Situation controlled. Alex Parker Returns posts about driver hitting UA veteran, exploiting internal security/morale issues. Олександр Вілкул reports on meeting for heating season prep. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) and Олександр Вілкул share photo messages regarding military equipment transfer to UA forces. Олександр Вілкул provides a briefing summarizing the situation, including allocation of funds for social support and housing reconstruction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pavlohrad Interest: Colonelcassad reports large-scale fire at Pavlohrad railway junction after combined missile/drone strike, labeling it "one of the largest logistics hubs." Shahed Hayabusa confirms agricultural/transport enterprises hit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Odesa Oblast: "Два майора" reports another strike on GUR in Odesa Oblast, indicating continued RF targeting of UA intelligence and military assets in the south. New update: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 🛵 Кіровоградська, Черкаська, Одеська області - загроза застосування ворогом ударних БпЛА! confirming continued threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cherkasy Oblast: New update: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports a warning for Cherkasy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia:
  • Belgorod Oblast: Krasnoyaruzhsky district residents to be evicted from temporary accommodation despite ongoing shelling. MoD reports 13 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Rostov/Belgorod. Два майора reports significant fire. AV БогомаZ reports civilian injured. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports enemy UAV shot down near Belgorod city. ASTRA reports a man died after shelling in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Bryansk Oblast: Video shows explosion on body of water, possibly mine or artillery. Drone security reported. Два майора reports UA drone attack on Sluchevsk village, injuring civilian. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov Oblast: MoD reports 13 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Rostov/Belgorod. 5 UAVs destroyed in Rostov, causing forest fire. Fighterbomber reports military commissariat inviting volunteers. Mash на Донбассе reports border crossing points closed. New update: WarGonzo reports "⚡️Таганрог атакуют дроны⚡️" indicating a new drone attack in Rostov Oblast, with video claiming helicopters and air defense engaging drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volgograd Oblast: Restrictions on aircraft at Volgograd Airport, then lifted. Massive UAV attack repelled, disrupting gas supply to 65 homes and train movement due to debris on railway. Large fire reported in Kotelnikovo. TASS reports train movement resumed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Saratov Airport: Temporary restrictions on aircraft, then lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Penza Oblast: Drone attacks reported on factory, identified as Penza Radio Plant (part of Rostec). RF sources distribute video of large explosion/fire. STERNENKO and ASTRA confirm target was Penza Radio Plant ("EVT named after V.A. Revunov"), producing computing equipment for RF MoD. TASS reports public transport suspended during "Air Danger," now cancelled. ASTRA confirms fire in area of two factories. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна confirm SBU drones hit the plant. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports at least two hits, one with "Batyr" UAV. Alex Parker Returns confirms target. ASTRA states at least 2 UAVs hit Penza Radio Plant. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vladimir Oblast: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports another drone found. Colonelcassad confirms another drone found in Vladimir Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Balashikha, Moscow Oblast: TASS reports five-story residential building fire, one fatality (updated to two). ASTRA shares video. TASS reports firefighters rescued two, evacuated 90. TASS reports open fire in Balashikha has been liquidated. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Lipetsk Oblast: Игорь Артамонов shares video of children's recreation, "Prometheus." ASTRA reports security forces conducted a search of the Lipetsk regional committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) premises. New update: Игорь Артамонов reports air danger mode across Lipetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security: FSB detained railway arson teenagers. MoE official detained for embezzlement. "Angara" airline certificate annulled. RDK leader Kiryushchenko arrested in absentia. Mobilized serviceman convicted for drug retrieval. RF war participant stole heirloom. Minor planned to set fire to relay cabinets. Police in Khabarovsk Krai on law enforcement op. New RF legislation for expelling foreigners. TASS reports Moscow court sentenced couple to 15/17 years for collecting military data. Sever.Realii comments: "Now the entire community of Russians... can be safely declared extremist." Alex Parker Returns comments on Crocus attack perpetrators being manipulated for money. Sever.Realii reports Leningrad Oblast deputy arrested for Navalny post. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports convicted serviceman accused of rape. Два майора reports FSB/Interior Ministry detained traffic inspectorate head. Север.Реалии reports Chemezov "dacha cooperative" in Dubai. WarGonzo reports youth detained in Buryatia for arsons. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports 31 bodies of liquidated RF servicemen delivered to Tuva, relatives waiting for hours. Операция Z reports teenager arrested in Ufa. ASTRA reports Krasnoyarsk student pre-trial detention for railway arsons. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares video on Ufa saboteur arrest. TASS reports Aksyonov signed decree restricting foreign labor. Sever.Realii reports Moscow Art Theatre director suspected of bribe. TASS reports Ilya Timofeev, former head of RF MoD's Main Armored Directorate utilization service, sentenced to 9 years for bribery. ASTRA reports regional officials recommended to switch to Max messenger. Colonelcassad shares video of detention of man from Saksky district, Crimea, accused of supporting AFU, denying integrity, using derogatory terms, proclaiming Nazi slogans. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports detention of former state employee who helped enemy target strategic enterprise. TASS reports 18-year-old Mariupol resident sentenced to seven years for collecting RF Armed Forces data. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports children of deceased serviceman not receiving payments. TASS reports Putin signed law on fines for intentional search of extremist materials and VPN advertising. TASS reports Putin signed law recognizing VPN use as aggravating circumstance. ASTRA reports Sevastopol photographer sentenced to 22 years. ТАСС reports MVD has put Sota journalists Petr Ivanov and Ruslan Terekhov on a wanted list. TASS reports Putin signed law allowing families of foreigners who died fighting for RF to apply for citizenship. Alex Parker Returns shares a photo regarding a pensioner fined 3,000 rubles in Ufa for defending the "Russian community" in VK comments, suggesting internal social tensions. TASS reports Putin signed a law increasing fines for parents not fulfilling their child-rearing duties. Colonelcassad shares video of 18-year-old Mariupol resident sentenced to 7 years for collecting data on RF Armed Forces. TASS reports RF Government approved a bill on mortgage holidays for families with children. TASS reports Putin signed law introducing fines for extremist searches in search engines. TASS reports Putin signed a law stripping acquired Russian citizenship for murder, rape of children, terrorism propaganda, and cooperation with other countries against Russia. TASS reports Putin signed a law obliging payments to be made within 30 days to the wounded, volunteers, and family members of those killed in the SVO. TASS reports information on migrant children in schools/colleges will be transferred to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Alex Parker Returns reports Putin signed a law blocking films/series that "discredit traditional values." Два майора reports detention of a man in Kurgan for calls to extremism. ASTRA reports two Russian SOTA journalists were put on a wanted list after reporting in Sudzha. TASS reports Putin signed a law on two pensions for SVO participants who became disabled. ТАСС reports departmental security will be supplied with combat small arms to repel drone attacks, a law signed by Putin. Полиция Хабаровского края shares photos of a police radio studio and a graduation ceremony at a police academy. These are internal Russian events with no direct military significance. New update: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares photos captioned "Там же, Севастополь" showing scenes of waste/refuse in what appears to be a civilian area, implying neglect or poor conditions in occupied Crimea. Alex Parker Returns shares new photos regarding a legal case with text about a judge and migrants from Tajikistan, highlighting internal ethnic/social tensions in RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Occupied Luhansk: Video shows litter/neglect. Large queue at Luhansk Republican Clinical Hospital. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Russian authorities failed to organize water supply, prohibiting price increases, leading to no delivery. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports RF junior sergeant Daria Trofimova "Belka," drone operator, liquidated in Luhansk while delivering FPV drones under humanitarian aid disguise. Mash на Донбассе shows makeshift rainwater collection in Donetsk. Народная милиция ДНР reports humanitarian aid from Moscow for Donbas. WarGonzo reports Ukrainian UAV struck firefighters in Luhansk, injuring five. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vostochny Cosmodrome: TASS reports anti-terrorist exercises held. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • California, USA: Colonelcassad reports F-35 fighter jet crashed near Lemoore Naval Air Station, Fresno County, with fire/smoke. Pilot ejected. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - unrelated)
  • United Kingdom: Poddugny reports second batch of nuclear weapons delivered to UK from US on July 29 (Nukewatch UK). ASTRA reports an activist, Aleksandr Frolov, committed suicide in the UK after being denied asylum. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - RF propaganda, unverified)
  • Myanmar: ASTRA reports martial law lifted after 4.5 years. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - unrelated)
  • Russian Economy: News from Moscow reports "Russians have become richer." TASS reports car dealerships closing due to weak demand. Новости Москвы reports chicken prices up 18%, Lada Iskra won't have AC. TASS reports Central Bank working on ending Visa/Mastercard services. TASS reports Bank of Russia established quantitative limits on mortgages. TASS reports 40 million rubles collected from Oleg Tinkov for Oleg Deripaska. Новости Москвы reports Putin signed law allowing tax authorities to collect debts without court order. TASS reports migrants working by government quota will not need to pass history or Russian language tests. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Iran: TASS reports Aeroflot will resume Moscow-Tehran flights in August. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Belarus: Филолог в засаде reports active Polish/Ukrainian special services work in Belarus. TASS reports Lukashenka stating Russia is guarantor of security. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF propaganda)
  • Nagorno-Karabakh: Военкор Котенок and Два майора share photos of destroyed monument to Aivazovsky in Khankendi (Stepanakert), confirming cultural destruction by Azerbaijani authorities. Басурин о главном shares video showing destroyed churches and claims they were shelled by UA with cluster munitions, and still contain unexploded mines. TASS reports dismantling of Aivazovsky monument causes regret and deep rejection, according to RF President's special representative for international cultural cooperation. Военкор Котенок shares additional video with graphic content on "Azerbaijani occupation of Artsakh," showing alleged desecration of bodies, looting of homes, and Armenian cemeteries. TASS shares Shvydkoy's full comment on the dismantling of the Aivazovsky monument. Военкор Котенок reports humanitarian aid efforts by Rossotrudnichestvo for displaced persons from Nagorno-Karabakh in Armenia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • China: TASS reports 3-year-old boy survived 18-story fall. TASS reports Putin holding talks with Laotian President Thongloun Sisoulith. TASS reports RF plans to establish railway transportation to Laos via China. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - unrelated)
  • Saudi Arabia: TASS reports amusement ride collapsed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - unrelated)
  • Moldova: TASS reports Moldovan President Sandu called on migrants abroad to register for elections by Aug 14, not mentioning those in Russia. TASS reports Moldova intends to solve Transnistrian problem only after RF Operational Group of Forces withdrawal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Estonia: TASS reports Estonia does not plan to recognize Palestine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Nicaragua: Операция Z, Colonelcassad, Оперативний ЗСУ report Nicaragua officially recognized new territories of Ukraine as part of Russia. TASS reports Medvedev stating Russia highly values this. Alex Parker Returns reiterates Nicaragua's recognition of DNR, LNR, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia as part of Russia, claiming "a completely different map will emerge." (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Isolated diplomatic event, international legal standing challenged.)
  • India: Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report Indian state-owned oil refineries suspending purchases of Russian oil amid Trump's customs threats/EU sanctions. STERNENKO confirms Indian state oil refineries temporarily suspended purchases of Russian oil, citing Reuters. ASTRA reports India refused to buy Russian oil after Trump's threats. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Indian oil refineries are stopping purchases of Russian oil, citing Reuters. РБК-Україна provides a photo message discussing Trump's potential punishment of India over Russian oil and whether sanctions will stop the war in Ukraine, indicating the ongoing relevance of this issue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Syria: Операция Z, TASS, MoD Russia, Alex Parker Returns report RF Defence Minister Belousov met with Syrian Defence Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra in Moscow to discuss cooperation. TASS reports Putin received Syrian Foreign Minister in Kremlin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • TikTok (Global): TASS reports messages about leak of 250,000 lines of email/usernames/user IDs of TikTok users from Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • BRICS: TASS reports Peskov stated BRICS work not oriented against other countries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • High-Speed Rail (RF): TASS reports Putin ordered model for high-speed rail network development by March 31, 2026. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - internal development)
  • Crimean Bridge: TASS reports queues exceeded 1,200 cars. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Hungary: TASS reports Hungary does not plan to recognize Palestine for now. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Laos: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Laotian President Thongloun Sisoulith gifted two elephants to Putin. TASS reports Belousov held talks with Laotian Defence Minister Khamlieng Outhakaisone, discussing military-technical cooperation and joint exercises. MoD Russia similarly reports Belousov's talks with Lao Defence Minister. TASS reports RF and Laos signed seven documents, including a roadmap for nuclear cooperation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - diplomatic activity with military implications)
  • Poland: Два майора reports Poland "secretly" testing American autonomous boats to enhance special operations in the Baltic Sea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UN: TASS reports UN recognized a lightning flash of 829 km as the longest in the world. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - unrelated)
  • Global: Colonelcassad reports Trump stated he wants to conclude peace in Ukraine before August 8th. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights details of Trump's statement, noting it again equates Russia and Ukraine. Два майора quotes US diplomat John Kelly at UN Security Council calling for ceasefire by August 8th. ASTRA shares video of John Kelly, US Deputy Assistant to the President, at a UN session, stating Trump wants peace by August 8th and the US is ready for additional measures. Старше Эдды reports Trump wants a "peace deal" by August 8th, threatening anger if not met, and claims EU will continue to be "faithful concubine" due to fear of Russian retribution. TASS reports Rubio stating US held contacts with Russian representatives to achieve understanding on peace in Ukraine and considers military confrontation unacceptable due to nuclear potential. TASS shares a video of a car crashing during a rally in Ecuador, unrelated to military operations. Kotsnews shares a poll result showing 77% of subscribers believe Trump does not know what he wants. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Rubio stated US had full conversation with RF this week on stopping the war, with no progress. STERNENKO confirms Rubio's statements on talks with RF without results. Операция Z similarly reports Rubio's statements. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports US Secretary of State Rubio stated on Fox Radio that the US held talks with Russians regarding stopping the war in Ukraine, but saw no progress. Alex Parker Returns relays a White House statement that Trump has achieved effectiveness in one peace agreement or ceasefire per month, and deserves the Nobel Peace Prize. Старше Эдды comments on Trump's shifting moods regarding tariffs. STERNENKO reports Putin's important statement, then withdrawal. New update: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Donald Trump speaking at a podium, indicating continued engagement on the global diplomatic front. TASS reports Trump stated "USA will impose sanctions against RF after 10-day deadline," indicating escalating international pressure. РБК-Україна shares video of Trump stating the same. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Trump plans to visit Russia after Israel. TASS reports Witkoff will visit Russia, citing Trump. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Georgia Border (Upper Lars): ASTRA reports mudslide near Verkhniy Lars border crossing between Russia and Georgia, causing siren activation and temporary traffic disruption. ASTRA reports on evacuation of Ukrainians detained there due to the mudslide. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sweden: TASS reports RF embassy statement that Swedish media uses theme of Ukrainian children for fake accusations against Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internet Access (RF): TASS reports Roskomnadzor (RKN) sent a request to remove Speedtest Ookla software. ASTRA reminds users that ASTRA VPN has unlimited data. New update: TASS reports over 4,000 Telegram users complained about a malfunction, indicating potential vulnerabilities in RF digital infrastructure or ongoing cyber activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Moscow (RF): Новости Москвы reports Muscovites will see a total solar eclipse in 101 years, indicating general news and no immediate threat. New update: Новости Москвы reports "🥵 Жара ночью негативно влияет на качество сна", a general weather report. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - unrelated)
  • Space (RF): TASS reports Bakanov (likely from Roscosmos) stating agreement with acting NASA head on ISS operation until 2028. TASS reports Bakanov invited acting NASA head to a Soyuz launch in November. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Eilat Port (Israel): Colonelcassad reports 95% of ships refuse to moor at Eilat port. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kamchatka (RF Far East): TASS reports three earthquakes (M5.2, M5.0, M5.8) in less than an hour. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal RF Social Issues: ASTRA reports on the new head of the "Lesta" gaming studio (World of Tanks, World of Warships), Boris Dobrodeev, former director of VK and son of the head of VGTRK. This is an internal Russian social/business development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Kharkiv Oblast: Continued RF strikes cause fires and damage. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video confirms Vovchansk in ruins. Kadyrov_95 thermal footage of Kharkiv direction implies clear visibility for drone operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows smoke plumes from damaged structures in Volchansk, confirming environmental impact from combat. Z комитет + карта СВО shares a map of Volchansk, indicating destroyed areas. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 video shows explosions and scorched earth, confirming environmental impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Donetsk/Luhansk (Occupied): Ongoing fires in fields. Video from Luhansk shows significant debris. Water supply issues in four Donetsk cities. Mash na Donbashe video shows makeshift rainwater collection in Makeevka, confirming severe water issues. Mash на Донбассе reports locust/grasshopper invasion. Басурин о главном video of churches damaged by shelling, indicating environmental hazards from unexploded ordnance. Военкор Котенок shares videos showing looting, destruction in abandoned homes, and desecration of Armenian cemeteries in Artsakh, depicting severe environmental and cultural damage. Филолог в засаде shares a video showing the aftermath of an attack on a residential area with significant damage to buildings and a damaged vehicle, and scorched landscape, indicating direct environmental impact from military action. Colonelcassad shares aerial photos of Chasiv Yar showing extensive destruction after 1.5 years of fighting, with ruined buildings and overgrown vegetation, confirming severe environmental degradation. Военкор Котенок shares aerial photos of "liberated" Chasiv Yar, depicting extensive urban destruction, reinforcing the environmental impact. ASTRA shares photos depicting widespread destruction in Chasiv Yar after "liberation," reinforcing the environmental impact. New update: Операция Z shares new video of Chasiv Yar showing widespread destruction of buildings, reinforcing environmental impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• General Conditions: Continued operations in adverse weather (rain affecting visibility). New update: Новости Москвы reports "🥵 Жара ночью негативно влияет на качество сна" which might indicate high temperatures affecting personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kamchatka (RF Far East): Nine earthquakes (M4.2-M5.5). Aftershocks expected for months. Ash emission from Klyuchevskoy volcano. TASS reports three earthquakes (M5.2, M5.0, M5.8) in less than an hour. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kherson Direction: "Два майора" mentions "strong wind" during drone footage. Два майора shares drone videos of explosions and smoke over residential areas in Kherson direction, confirming environmental impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kotelnikovo (RF): Large fire observed after UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Rostov Oblast (RF): Falling debris from destroyed UAVs caused forest fire. New update: WarGonzo reports drone attack on Taganrog, implying continued environmental impact from such incidents. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Penza (RF): Plume of dark smoke from drone strike on Penza Radio Plant. Large explosion/fire. Public transport suspended. Residents complained about closed shelters. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kremenchuk Raion: UA reports household building caught fire due to UAV debris. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kyiv Oblast: Night photos show aftermath of attack. Large smoke plume and flames. Damage to railway. Zelenskiy confirms residential damage. Klitschko video shows significant destruction. Klimenko confirms direct impact on 5th floor. STERNENKO confirms damage to "Umma" mosque. РБК-Україна reports DSNS aviation involved. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and РБК-Україна share video of girl surviving fall. Оперативний ЗСУ shares Reuters/ABC News video showing multiple explosions over Kyiv, confirming significant environmental impact. ASTRA video shows explosions in Kyiv during Russian attack, confirming active urban engagement. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares shocking footage of RF strikes on Kyiv. Colonelcassad shares video of explosions in Kyiv. Alex Parker Returns shares a video capturing multiple explosions in Kyiv, followed by a large plume of smoke, confirming significant environmental impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Pavlohrad: Large-scale fire at railway junction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Belgorod Oblast (RF): Significant fire at building. AV БогомаZ reports civilian injured. ASTRA reports a man died after shelling in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, confirming environmental impact of shelling. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Balashikha, Moscow Oblast (RF): TASS reports fire in residential building, thick black smoke. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Moscow (RF): Новости Москвы reports thunderstorms and strong winds expected. New update: Новости Москвы reports "🥵 Жара ночью негативно влияет на качество сна", indicating potential heat affecting personnel or operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kramatorsk: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of destroyed residential building. Операция Z reports large smoke plume. РБК-Україна reports half of 5-story building destroyed. ASTRA videos and photos show destruction. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video showing the aftermath of an apparent artillery or air strike on a residential building, with smoke billowing from the structure and debris scattered around, confirming environmental impact. New update: НгП раZVедка shares video "⚠️Уничтожение моста. Константиновка." showing an explosion on or near a road, confirming environmental impact from strikes on infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports almost 700 hectares of grain destroyed by fires. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares thermal footage from Zaporizhzhia front, showing potential environmental heat signatures. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports a burned vehicle in Polohivskyi district. Два майора shares aerial footage of multiple explosions on the Zaporizhzhia front, confirming significant environmental impact from ongoing combat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Georgia Border (Upper Lars): ASTRA video shows mudslide and siren, disrupting traffic in a mountainous region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Dnipropetrovsk: Два майора video shows large explosion and fire, indicating significant environmental impact from recent strike. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video displaying a large plume of smoke rising, suggesting a significant environmental event. Colonelcassad shares video of the aftermath of attacks in Dnipropetrovsk, showing extensive damage to structures and widespread debris, indicating significant environmental impact. Mash на Донбассе reports a school collapsed in Makeevka. New update: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports new groups of enemy UAVs on the southeastern side of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a northwest course. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sumy Oblast: Два майора shares a video of an explosion in agricultural fields, confirming environmental impact from combat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Siversk-Ivano-Daryevka Direction: Сливочный каприз shares photos and videos of heavily shelled and damaged wooded areas with craters and scattered debris, confirming environmental degradation from combat operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Lipetsk Oblast: New update: Игорь Артамонов reports air danger mode across Lipetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF Force Dispositions:
  • Air Assets: RF continues KAB launches (Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Sumy). New groups of strike UAVs (Shaheds) identified in Chernihiv/Sumy (moving south/northwest to Kyiv), Western Ukraine, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, and Poltava. RF actively using FPV drones in Dnipropetrovsk (Nikopolshchyna) and Chasiv Yar. FAB-1500 strike in Kupyansk. High volume of Shaheds converged on Kyiv, followed by ballistic/cruise missile strikes. TASS reports 169 UA UAVs shot down overnight. UA reports 15 enemy drones destroyed by PPO in Dnipropetrovsk. RF sources claim Zhuliany Airport targeted. RF MoD claims combined missile-drone strike on Pavlohrad railway junction. RF MoD claims 44 UAV control points and 28 drones destroyed by "Zapad" Grouping. Zelenskiy reports over 300 drones and 8 missiles. WarGonzo and Minister Klimenko indicate "reactive Shaheds" in Kyiv attack. Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms reactive Shaheds. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 317 aerial attack assets engaged. ASTRA reports 5 direct missile hits and 21 drone hits. TASS claims "Geran-2" and "Lancet" inflicted damage in Sumy. RF MoD claims group strike on Ukrainian defence industry, airfield, depots. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS cites Ignat saying RF used up to 8 reactive UAVs. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports RF drone strike on railway traction substation/signaling station. KMVA reports MiG-31K air raid alert in Kyiv. Alex Parker Returns confirms drone strikes on Penza industrial facilities. Colonelcassad claims Iskander-M strike on tuberculosis dispensary in Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk. РБК-Україна and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report strike on Kramatorsk. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB inbound to Sumy. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports another drone found in Vladimir Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports repeated KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast. Воин DV shares video of thermal/night vision drone footage targeting a vehicle/structure, resulting in explosions and fires, indicating successful offensive operations. РБК-Україна shares video of an expert stating Russians will not be able to fully transition to reactive Shaheds due to cost/production constraints. Colonelcassad shares drone footage of FAB-500 with UMPK glide bomb striking an automobile crossing of the Volchya River near Velikomikhailovka, indicating continued precision strike capability against UA logistics. MoD Russia reports Supercam S350 UAV teams of the Sever Group of Forces located a control post of heavy drones and a manpower cluster of the AFU in Kharkov direction. Два майора shares drone video showing explosion in residential area, possibly Dnipropetrovsk. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video displaying a large plume of smoke, possibly from a strike, indicating continued aerial activity. WarGonzo shares a video demonstrating preparation and deployment of FPV drones with improvised explosive devices by the 44th Army Corps for reconnaissance and attack missions, indicating a continued focus on drone warfare. Colonelcassad shares an animated map illustrating claimed strikes across Ukraine on 30-31 July, including explosions, Geran drones, and UMPK missile strikes. This confirms RF's focus on showcasing widespread aerial activity. Another strike on GUR in Odesa Oblast reported by "Два майора". Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports threat of enemy strike UAVs from the Black Sea in Mykolaiv Oblast. Colonelcassad shares video of FPV drone operated by 144th MSD destroying a 155mm Polish AHS Krab. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeastern direction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy UAV on western outskirts of Kharkiv. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAV north of Konotop, Sumy Oblast, and that means for shooting down have been engaged. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southeastern direction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Два майора reports that RF launched as many drones in July as in almost the entire year of 2024. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports threat of enemy strike UAVs from the south in Donetsk Oblast. Alex Parker Returns shares an image of a 3D rendered drone (possibly a loitering munition) with the claim of 6,297 launches in July (1374% increase vs. July 2024), indicating a massive increase in drone usage. New updates: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports new warning for 🛵 Кіровоградська, Черкаська, Одеська області - загроза застосування ворогом ударних БпЛА! indicating continued multi-region drone threats. WarGonzo reports "⚡️Таганрог атакуют дроны⚡️" indicating a new drone attack in Rostov Oblast, implying continued UA deep strikes or false flag operations. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports new groups of enemy UAVs on the southeastern side of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a northwest course. Повітряні Сили ЗС України warns of threats to Cherkasy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Forces: Persistent offensive pressure on Pokrovsk axis, with claimed advancements into residential areas. RF small infantry group assaults in Sumy. RF Special Forces "AKHMAT" Group "Bati" operating in Kharkiv. RF VDV appealing for drone/Starlink. "Операция Z" claims elimination of foreign mercenaries near Pokrovsk. TASS claims "South" group destroyed Western equipment near Konstantinovka. TASS claims RF forces advancing on Kharkiv sector and near Zelenaya Dolina/Karpovka. RF MoD claims to have liberated Chasiv Yar, supported by video evidence of flag raising and TASS claims of largest AFU grouping destroyed. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Alex Parker Returns assert Chasiv Yar liberation. TASS reports 18 foreign mercenaries identified. Liveuamap Source reports clashes near Kindrashivka, Karpivka, Toretsk, Zaporizhzhya. MoD Russia shares video of howitzer crews wiping out strongholds in Luhansk. Народная милиция ДНР shares video of night ambush. MoD Russia claims EW station destruction in Zaporozhye. «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» shares video featuring Akhmat battalion. Воин DV shares video of 305th Artillery Brigade destroying AFU positions. TASS video shows VDV units "liberating" Chasiv Yar. Рыбарь and Военкор Котенок publish videos claiming "liberation." Басурин о главном shows Belousov congratulating 98th Guards VDV Division. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares video of BM-21 Grad operation. Kotsnews shares videos of soldiers in tactical environments. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of RF soldier hit by FPV drone while carrying TM mine. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports liquidation of RF drone operator Daria Trofimova. Janus Putkonen claims RF "egg-running" advances in Donbass. Kotsnews shares photo of new anti-tank 'Motiv'. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports enemy DRGs operating deep in Pokrovsk. Два майора shares video "Frontline Armor" with soldier and military truck in trench. Воин DV shares video of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade destroying enemy transport/communication. Colonelcassad reports on RF assault and reconnaissance personnel on Southern Donetsk direction. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition states Chasiv Yar under RF control, next step offensive on Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of heavily modified "Frankenstein" truck. Alex Parker Returns shares a video of a truck transporting concertina wire and defensive obstacles, indicative of RF defensive preparations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares thermal imagery video from Chasiv Yar direction, showing heat signatures and explosions near structures, suggesting ongoing RF targeting or engagement. TASS reports destruction of AFU assault group in Khrapovshchyna, Sumy Oblast, showing aerial footage of craters and smoke. Сливочный каприз shares aerial reconnaissance footage with map overlay of Krasny Liman - Zelenoye Pole area (presumably Lyman direction), showing active operations on July 30, 2025. Старше Эдды further claims Chasiv Yar is under RF control and will be a staging area for Sloviansk-Kramatorsk offensive. Басурин о главном similarly claims Chasiv Yar liberation and offensive on Kostyantynivka. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports VDV presence on Zaporizhzhia direction. Kadyrov_95 shares thermal footage of Akhmat special forces engaging UA manpower in Kharkiv direction. STERNENKO shares video of Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian vehicle (with cage-like structure) in Siversk direction. Воин DV shares video demonstrating FPV drone mining operations, indicating adaptive use of drones for ground force support. Colonelcassad shares a map of Southern Donetsk direction, confirming ongoing RF ground activity. Colonelcassad shares video of reconnaissance elements from the Vostok group thanking subscribers for body armor, indicating reliance on public support. Рыбарь provides a comic strip titled "Once upon a time in a tank brigade," potentially a morale-boosting or narrative-shaping piece. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video from 24th Mechanized Brigade debunking Russian claims about Chasiv Yar, showing tactical operations and enemy losses. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares thermal footage from the Zaporizhzhia front, showing potential vehicle or personnel activity. Операция Z shares a photo message claiming RF is completing the defeat of the enemy in the Oleksandropol-Kalynove area, effectively encircling Kostiantynivka. Филолог в засаде shares a video showing the work of an evacuation group from the 103rd Motor Rifle Regiment, 150th Motorized Rifle Division, operating in the Kostiantynivka direction. «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» shares a video with soldiers in tactical gear, reinforcing national pride. Воин DV shares video of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade destroying enemy armored vehicle via FPV drone, which detonated a pre-placed mine in Alexandrogad, indicating combined arms effectiveness. Два майора reports on the Konstantinovka direction. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" provides a summary for July 31st, likely detailing ground force actions and outcomes. MoD Russia shares a video titled "Serviceman of an assault detachment Aleksandr Bushmelev spoke in detail about liberation of Koptevo and Novotoretskoye in the Donetsk People's Republic," confirming ongoing RF ground operations aimed at territorial gains in Donetsk. MoD Russia shares a video of a soldier discussing difficulties of movement, use of anti-drone ponchos, and motorcycle transport, indicating adaptive ground tactics and the challenges of sustaining operations. Операция Z shares a video stating Zelensky confirmed small groups of RF forces are breaking through into Pokrovsk. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing a Russian soldier with a severe facial injury on the Southern front, indicating ongoing combat. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a request for contact from the 503rd regiment. Colonelcassad shares a video depicting a drone dropping an ordnance into a dugout/trench system. Zelenskiy / Official reports Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi states UA units are holding all positions, and are eliminating Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups in Pokrovsk and Dobropillia. ASTRA reports on the disappearance of two battalion commanders of the 5th Brigade in the "DNR" after being summoned to superiors, suggesting potential internal purges or discipline issues. Сливочный каприз shares photos and videos of damaged forested areas and military personnel movement in the Siversk - Ivano-Daryevka direction as of July 31, 2025. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides an operational update as of 22:00 (19:00Z) on July 31, 2025, detailing RF actions and UA defense efforts across various axes, confirming ongoing heavy combat, particularly on the Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar directions. Colonelcassad shares a video titled "Combat work of Uragan MLRS #1st_tank_army Group Z," explicitly showing the firing of an Uragan MLRS and drone footage of the impact. New update: Операция Z shares new photos and video claiming "Взятие Часов Яра: 217 полк водрузил флаги на последней улице на юге города, посрамив Зеленского," indicating continued RF ground efforts to claim control of Chasiv Yar. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video titled "Дякуємо таким московитам за те, що вони економлять наше БК і при цьому створюють яскраві кадри" showing UA drone footage of RF soldiers in a trench system, with dust clouds from activity, confirming ongoing frontline engagements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - noting low confidence on Chasiv Yar claims, and the latest RF claim of UA confirmation is unverified and contradictory to public UA statements. New UA video refutation of Chasiv Yar is significant. The "bears" videos from «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» are propaganda, not actual dispositions, but the tactical training footage from the same source is relevant. Colonelcassad's latest is a propaganda/morale piece. New Operatsiya Z update reinforces RF claims on Chasiv Yar but remains unverified.)
  • Control Measures: RF Ministry of Justice added Navalny's book to extremist list. TASS reports Roscosmos on ISS air leak. TASS claims Crocus attackers paid. Police in Khabarovsk Krai on criminal proceedings for terrorism justification. TASS reports Russia world leader in fintech. TASS reports car ramming after Crocus attack was part of attack. TASS reports former State Duma deputy fined for LGBT content. TASS reports imports from "unfriendly countries" decreased threefold. TASS reports Tina Kandelaki declared wanted by SBU. TASS reports Nicaragua's Co-Presidents solidarity message to Putin. TASS reports former Sochi mayor accused of embezzlement. TASS reports minor planned to set fire to relay cabinets. TASS reports over 250 participants in Kursk Oblast invasion convicted. TASS reports "Eksmo" publishing to continue Dina Rubina's books. TASS reports Mikhalkov believes Russia shouldn't submit film for Oscar. TASS reports restrictions at Saratov airport. TASS reports Russia/US not negotiating nuclear disarmament. TASS reports Vershinin on US non-participation in Palestine conference. TASS reports "Angara" airline cancelled flights. TASS reports Russia/Syria contacts on bases. TASS reports Canada to recognize Palestine. TASS reports premature to talk about high-level meetings between Russia/Ukraine. TASS reports Trump doesn't care about trade ties between New Delhi/Moscow. TASS reports anti-terrorist exercises at Vostochny Cosmodrome. TASS reports new August laws on expelling foreigners. TASS reports State Duma Deputy proposes banning unvaccinated migrants from taxi work. FSB reports 15/17 year sentences for couple collecting military data. TASS denies electronic driver's licenses from August 1. TASS also reports Syrian Foreign Minister's statement. Басурин о главном implies rejection of Trump's statements. Филолог в засаде claims Polish/Ukrainian special services in Belarus. TASS reports Roskomnadzor received appeal from Shaman. TASS reports Lukashenka stating Russia is guarantor of security for Belarus. TASS reports Syrian Minister of Defense meeting Russian counterpart. Colonelcassad shares videos of couple sentencing. TASS reports three convicted after death in boiling pit. TASS reports Moldovan President Sandu's statement on migrant registration. TASS reports former head of RF MoD's Main Armored Directorate utilization service sentenced for bribery. ASTRA reports regional officials recommended to switch to Max messenger. Alex Parker Returns states "August will be a turning point." TASS reports Patrushev claims Western countries discussing piracy legalization. Colonelcassad shares video of detention of man from Saksky district, Crimea, accused of supporting AFU. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports detention of former state employee who helped enemy target strategic enterprise. TASS reports 18-year-old Mariupol resident sentenced. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports children of deceased serviceman not receiving payments. TASS reports Putin signed law on fines for intentional search of extremist materials and VPN advertising. TASS reports Putin signed law recognizing VPN use as aggravating circumstance. ASTRA reports Sevastopol photographer sentenced to 22 years. ТАСС reports Peskov stated BRICS work not oriented against other countries. Новости Москвы reports Putin signed tax collection law. TASS reports Putin ordered high-speed rail development. TASS reports Moldova intends to solve Transnistrian problem only after RF withdrawal. TASS reports Estonia does not plan to recognize Palestine. TASS reports Peskov stated BRICS work not oriented against other countries. TASS reports Medvedev stating Russia highly values Nicaragua's decision. TASS reports Hungary does not plan to recognize Palestine. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Laotian President Thongloun Sisoulith gifted two elephants to Putin, highlighting a symbolic diplomatic gesture. TASS and MoD Russia report Belousov's talks with Laotian Defence Minister Khamlieng Outhakaisone, discussing military-technical cooperation and joint exercises, indicating strengthened military ties. TASS reports RF and Laos signed seven documents, including a roadmap for nuclear cooperation, further solidifying the relationship. TASS reports Putin received Syrian Foreign Minister in the Kremlin, reaffirming the alliance. Два майора reports Poland "secretly" testing American autonomous boats for Baltic special operations, highlighting Western military cooperation in RF's near abroad. Alex Parker Returns reiterates Nicaragua's recognition of annexed Ukrainian territories, promoting diplomatic success for RF. TASS reports RF embassy in Sweden accused Swedish media of using Ukrainian children for fake accusations against Russia, indicating diplomatic efforts to counter negative narratives. TASS reports Rubio stating US held contacts with Russian representatives to achieve understanding on peace in Ukraine, indicating a diplomatic push from US. ТАСС reports Roscosmos discussing ISS, Moon, and deep space cooperation with US counterpart, showing continued space diplomacy. TASS reports migrants working by government quota will not need to pass history or Russian language tests, indicating an adaptive measure to facilitate foreign labor. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Peskov's statement on Putin's upcoming important address, suggesting a centralized response to international events. РБК-Україна similarly reports Putin's important statement. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports US Secretary of State Rubio stated on Fox Radio that the US held talks with Russians regarding stopping the war in Ukraine, but saw no progress. This indicates a lack of diplomatic breakthrough for RF. Colonelcassad reports 95% of ships refuse to moor at Eilat port, highlighting potential international economic pressure or regional instability. Старше Эдды comments on Trump's shifting moods regarding tariffs. ТАСС reports departmental security will be supplied with combat small arms to repel drone attacks, a law signed by Putin. ASTRA reports on the appointment of Boris Dobrodeev as head of "Lesta" gaming studio, a strategic move to control cultural influence within RF. STERNENKO reports Putin's important statement, then withdrawal. New update: ТАСС reports "Владимир Путин 31 июля подписал 85 законов, подсчитал ТАСС." indicating a large number of new laws impacting internal controls and policies. Alex Parker Returns shares new photo message about a judge and migrants, highlighting internal social control mechanisms. Kotsnews shares a photo captioned "Азертадж учит ТАСС географии" which might be related to RF control of information accuracy. Рыбарь shares a photo message "📝О чём говорит Рыбарь📝" which is a form of narrative control. TASS shares photo message of Lavrov's article stating EU and NATO distort facts to rewrite history. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - noting medium confidence on Nicaragua claim. New TASS update on payments reflects a formalization of social support measures. New TASS update on 85 laws signed reinforces the extensive internal control measures.)
• Friendly Forces (UA):
  • Government & Internal Security: Ukrainian PM Shmyhal warns of salary arrears if budget not amended. Rada set to vote on NABU/SAP bill. President Zelensky discusses GUR ops and cooperation with US. Syrisky demands maximum transfer of training underground. Syrisky announces 51-day BZVP. 25-year-old conscripts granted reserve status. KMA highlights World Central Kitchen support. Klimenko on-site at Kyiv strike. Zelenskiy/KMA confirm 6 fatalities, dozens injured (updated to 16 fatalities, 159 injured, 12 children, 124 casualties total). General Staff meeting to increase unit capabilities. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering agent collecting data in Kharkiv. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports exposing forestry officials in Zhytomyr for 23M UAH damages. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports changes to TCC registration for 25-year-old medical/pharmaceutical men. Координаційний штаб met with Kharkiv families. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports corruption in quadcopter purchase. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна confirm Rada adopted NABU/SAP bill. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна confirm Rada increased defense spending. Zelenskiy / Official speaks with new Polish President. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports exposing falsified pesticide production. РБК-Україна shares fundraising video for evacuation vehicle repair. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports meeting on heating season in Kryvyi Rih. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Verkhovna Rada supported bill reinforcing education right for servicemen. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos of 82nd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade improving communication. Zelenskiy / Official signs law guaranteeing independent operation of anti-corruption bodies and financing defense sector. Оперативний ЗСУ reports UA servicemen will receive additional 15 days vacation. РБК-Україна confirms. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports illegal seizure of 36.5 hectares in Synevyr National Nature Park. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports 150M UAH damages from corruption in Zaporizhzhia/Transcarpathia. Координаційний штаб meeting with 77th Separate Airmobile Brigade families. РБК-Україна shares photo messages about combat summons by mail. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of an antique "Kobzar" (Taras Shevchenko's works) from 1893, emphasizing its cultural significance. Оперативний ЗСУ provides details on the additional 15 days of vacation for servicemen, as announced by Zelensky, through Colonel Palisa. Президентська бригада ЗСУ shares video depicting soldiers training and maintaining equipment, emphasizing the transformation of civilians into military personnel. РБК-Україна reports on RF's new laws stripping acquired citizenship from political opponents, posing a potential threat to Ukrainians in Russia. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 explicitly thanks Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko for decisive actions. РБК-Україна reports police senior lieutenant Liliya Stepanchuk killed. Олександр Вілкул provides a briefing summarizing the situation, including allocation of funds for social support and housing reconstruction. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares video of Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reporting on the Pokrovsk direction, emphasizing that positions are being held, battles are intense, and RF DRGs are being destroyed. РБК-Україна reports on accusations against MP Labazyuk. Emergency rescue operations in Solomianskyi district of Kyiv completed, ongoing in Sviatoshynskyi district. This indicates the continued efforts of Ukrainian emergency services. РБК-Україна and КМВА confirm 16 killed and 159 injured in Kyiv. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos confirming the Verkhovna Rada adopted the law on mandatory annual leave for servicemen. Zelenskiy / Official delivers a daily address, discussing Russian strikes, rescue operations, casualties, and military efforts. He highlights the establishment of a Military Ombudsman and progress on legislative drafts. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports that the "18-24" program has been expanded, allowing young volunteers to study in higher education institutions without leaving service. ASTRA shares a photo message of Ukrainian emergency service personnel operating at a disaster site, confirming ongoing rescue and recovery operations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Ukraine is convening an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council due to a new wave of terror from Russia, according to FM Sybiha. New update: РБК-Україна shares map of Ukraine's air raid alarms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Military Action: "Predator" Brigade recruitment. Film "Road of Death" on GUR MO op. Successful FPV drone strikes by 66th Mech Brigade. Engineering troops cleared nearly 3,000 hectares of mines. 5 RF recon UAVs shot down. UA drone targeted RF SA-13, 2S1 Gvozdika. "BULAVA" unit used drone with grenade launcher. STERNENKO reports 10,000 UAH raised for "Shahedorez." New 16th Army Corps for Kharkiv. 10th OGShBr repelled assault, destroyed 13 motorcycles. UA seeking excavators. PPO active over Kyiv. 15 enemy drones destroyed in Dnipropetrovsk. General Staff reports approx. 1070 RF personnel losses. Silo oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny operational update. 47th Mech Brigade BZVP. UA holding defensive line in Chasiv Yar. Air Force reports enemy tactical aviation in northeastern direction. STERNENKO confirms 174 targets intercepted by "Shahedorez." 12th Azov Brigade videos show elimination of occupiers. UA Air Force/Operatyvnyi ZSU reports high intercepts (291/317 targets). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares FPV drone strike and drone-aided rescue. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports NGU "Khartia" Brigade destroyed Russian ground robotic complex. STERNENKO reports 315 FPV drones purchased. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno shows 93rd Mechanized Brigade eliminating occupiers. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" reports 6694 RF officers demobilized. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides situation summary. Сили оборони Півдня України explicitly refutes RF Kamianske claims. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos of youth fire training. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video mocking "Два майора." Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of FPV drone strike on RF soldier. Президентська бригада ЗСУ shares drone strike video. STERNENKO shares video of 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade destroying enemy transport with fiber-optic drones. Оперативний ЗСУ shares photo "Догрались?" Генеральний штаб ЗСУ and Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України share photos of 82nd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade training communication. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares video of "Khartia" destroying Russian ground robotic complex. Оперативний ЗСУ reports "Country of Engineers" initiative. STERNENKO shares video of Phoenix unit working against Russian transport on Konstantinivka direction. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС shares video of wounded RF soldier after mortar strike. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) and Олександр Вілкул share photo messages regarding large shipments of military aid to UA forces. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of 413th Battalion "Raid" operators disabling an enemy Buk-M1 SAM system, a GAZ Tigr, a truck, EW equipment, and potentially a 2S1 Gvozdika. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of 63rd Brigade tank operators creating "hell" for occupiers, showing tanks moving through a settlement with smoke and explosions. Николаевский Ванёк shares drone footage of UA forces engaging RF personnel and destroying vehicles near Chasiv Yar, explicitly countering RF claims of control. STERNENKO shares video of SPEAR Group B 118th Territorial Defense Brigade destroying a Russian vehicle (with cage-like structure) in Siversk direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС emphasizes prioritizing aerial and ground drone units to reduce infantry losses and counter enemy drone numerical superiority. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 shares a photo of a Ukrainian soldier with a rifle in a wooded area, with the caption "Summer is the time for a rifle and into the forest," indicating continued training and operational readiness. STERNENKO shares video of SUNSTRIKE unit destroying another Supercam and Zala drone, highlighting effective counter-drone operations. РБК-Україна provides video of Ukrainian Presidential Brigade successfully downing an Iskander-K missile heading towards Kyiv. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video from 24th Mechanized Brigade showing tactical operations and enemy losses in Chasiv Yar. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Ukrainian SSO operators clearing a settlement in Kursk Oblast. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares a photo message about support for comrades, implying ongoing aid to Ukrainian servicemen. РБК-Україна shares a video featuring "Kraken" special unit of GUR MO, demonstrating their activities in enemy rear, destruction of DRGs, and assault tasks. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video calling for donations for drone components and transmitters for reconnaissance on the Kherson front, indicating ongoing needs for UAVs. STERNENKO shares video of "Apache" FPV drone group conducting reconnaissance and strike operations, destroying a dilapidated structure and targeting a vehicle. This further indicates UA's continued and effective use of FPV drones. Operatyvnyi ZSU shares video from "Donbas" battalion (18th NGU Brigade) providing additional footage from Chasiv Yar, directly refuting RF "TikToker" claims of capture. This video shows drone footage targeting and destroying Russian military assets, including an armored vehicle and a building. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares video of drone footage from the 42nd Mechanized Brigade depicting combat scenarios, explosions, and reconnaissance. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports sappers of the 47th Separate Engineer Brigade are actively installing "egoza" spiral barriers in Kharkiv and Donetsk. Оперативний ЗСУ reports HIMARS strike on North Korean M-1978 "Koksan" self-propelled artillery, with ammunition detonation confirmed by 14th Separate UAV Regiment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Border Control: Ukrainian border guards in Odesa detained individual attempting to flee disguised as woman. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Civilian Support: Protests regarding NABU/SAP. Civilians sheltered in metro. Emergency services engaged in Kyiv. Klitschko reports police among injured. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration air raid ended, daily minute of silence. Rubezh NGU Brigade fundraising. STERNENKO urges "Convert your rage into help." Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration promoting creative contest. KMA reports on casualties, fear for children. РБК-Україна reports rescued man. РБК-Україна shares video of peaceful protest for NABU/SAP. Координаційний штаб promoting 3D modeling course. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 announces Energodar-Kaharlyk partnership. STERNENKO states citizens convinced deputies on NABU/SAP. Координаційний штаб reports meeting with 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade families. Два майора highlights UA social media offering mobile shelters. РБК-Україна shares fundraising video for evacuation vehicle repair. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and РБК-Україна share video of girl surviving fall. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 thanks Ukrainian Armed Forces. РБК-Україна reports Kyiv declares tomorrow, August 1st, a day of mourning. РБК-Україна reports US statement at UN Security Council regarding a ceasefire agreement by August 8th, indicating continued international diplomatic pressure on RF. STERNENKO reports "Trump wants to sign an agreement to end the war by August 8th." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms EU will not freeze financial support for Ukraine after NABU and SAP independence restoration. Рыбарь reports on "forgotten settlers" (переселенцы), indicating ongoing challenges for displaced populations. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares additional photo messages on civilian events and support in Zaporizhzhia. РБК-Україна reports Sumy will join the day of mourning. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a photo message of a memorial for Matvii Marchenko, a 6-year-old killed in the Kyiv attack, highlighting the civilian cost of the conflict. ASTRA shares a photo message of Ukrainian emergency service personnel operating at a disaster site, emphasizing civilian protection efforts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Ukraine is convening an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council due to a new wave of terror from Russia, according to FM Sybiha. New update: Народная милиция ДНР shares video of humanitarian aid being delivered to civilians in Kherson Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Air/Missile/UAV: Capable of large-scale KAB launches (including FAB-1500) and persistent, multi-vector drone operations (Shaheds, reactive drones, FPV drones with thermobaric warheads) reaching Northern Kyiv and Western Ukraine, as well as Poltava Oblast. Demonstrated capability for coordinated, multi-layered aerial assaults on Kyiv, immediately following high-volume drone attacks with ballistic and cruise missile launches. Confirmed use of ballistic missiles on Kyiv, with claims of cluster warheads. Capable of striking industrial/logistics hubs (Pavlohrad) and military-industrial targets within Russia (Penza Radio Plant). Capable of employing mobile EW complexes (Shipovnik-Aero). Capable of shooting down UA UAVs over Russian territory, claiming 169 drones shot down. Zelenskiy confirms RF capability to launch over 300 drones and 8 missiles. WarGonzo claims mass use of "reactive Gerans." Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms RF use of reactive Shaheds. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 317 aerial attack assets engaged. ASTRA reports 5 direct missile hits and 21 drone hits. RF MoD claims precision strike on Ukrainian military airfield and ammunition depot. Два майора confirms ZALA Z-16 ISR capability. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS cites Ignat saying RF used up to 8 reactive UAVs. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports RF drone strike on railway traction substation/signaling station. Alex Parker Returns confirms drone strikes on Penza. Colonelcassad claims Iskander-M strike on tuberculosis dispensary. ASTRA confirms at least 2 UAV hits on Penza Radio Plant. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms strike on residential building in Kramatorsk. Народная милиция ДНР claims destruction of Israeli-made AFU radar. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА demonstrates capability to target airfields/runways with multiple, coordinated strikes. Повітряні Сили ЗС України confirms repeated KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast. РБК-Україна features an expert stating RF faces constraints in fully transitioning to reactive Shaheds due to cost and production. WarGonzo reports UA UAV struck firefighters in Luhansk, injuring five, indicating RF vulnerability to drone strikes on personnel within occupied territories. Colonelcassad shares drone footage of FAB-500 with UMPK glide bomb striking an automobile crossing of the Volchya River near Velikomikhailovka, demonstrating precision strike capabilities against infrastructure. Оперативний ЗСУ's OSINT data shows a 1378% increase in "Shahed" and imitation drones launched by RF in July 2025 compared to July 2024, confirming a significant escalation in RF drone capabilities and commitment. MoD Russia reports Supercam S350 UAV teams located a control post of heavy drones and manpower cluster in Kharkov direction, indicating active ISR and targeting. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video displaying a large plume of smoke rising, suggesting continued aerial offensive capability. WarGonzo demonstrates RF FPV drone capabilities for reconnaissance and attack missions using IEDs/munitions. Colonelcassad shares an animated map illustrating claimed strikes across Ukraine on 30-31 July, including explosions, Geran drones, and UMPK missile strikes. This confirms RF's focus on showcasing widespread aerial activity. Another strike on GUR in Odesa Oblast reported by "Два майора". Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports threat of enemy strike UAVs from the Black Sea in Mykolaiv Oblast. Colonelcassad shares video of FPV drone operated by 144th MSD destroying a 155mm Polish AHS Krab. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeastern direction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy UAV on western outskirts of Kharkiv, possible PPO work. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAV north of Konotop, Sumy Oblast, and that means for shooting down have been engaged. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southeastern direction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Два майора reports that RF launched as many drones in July as in almost the entire year of 2024. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports threat of enemy strike UAVs from the south in Donetsk Oblast. Alex Parker Returns shares an image of a 3D rendered drone (possibly a loitering munition) with the claim of 6,297 launches in July (1374% increase vs. July 2024), indicating a massive increase in drone usage and a significant capability. Colonelcassad shares a video titled "Combat work of Uragan MLRS #1st_tank_army Group Z," explicitly showing the firing of an Uragan MLRS and drone footage of the impact. This confirms RF's continued and effective use of heavy artillery systems. New update: WarGonzo reports "⚡️Таганрог атакуют дроны⚡️" indicating continued drone attack capabilities within RF. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports new groups of enemy UAVs on the southeastern side of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a northwest course. Повітряні Сили ЗС України warns of threats to Cherkasy. Игорь Артамонов reports air danger mode across Lipetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Forces: Capable of sustained offensive operations, particularly on Pokrovsk axis, utilizing small infantry groups, special forces, and company-sized mechanized assaults. Demonstrated urban penetration capability. Capable of clearing fortified positions and securing logistics routes. Claimed liberation of Chasiv Yar and destruction of largest AFU grouping indicates capability for significant territorial gains and attrition. Kotsnews footage confirms assault work under Pokrovsk. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition highlights difficulty of Chasiv Yar battle. MoD Russia shares video of howitzer crews engaging strongholds in Luhansk. Народная милиция ДНР footage demonstrates night ambushes. MoD Russia claims EW station destruction in Zaporozhye. Операция Z (Military Correspondents of Russian Spring) video from Pokrovsk demonstrates effective fire use. «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» shares video featuring Akhmat battalion. Воин DV shows artillery units destroying AFU positions. TASS video shows specific VDV units credited with "liberating" Chasiv Yar. Рыбарь and Военкор Котенок reinforce claimed advances in Chasiv Yar. Басурин о главном shows Belousov congratulating 98th Guards VDV Division. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 demonstrates Grad MLRS operation. Kotsnews shares videos of soldiers in tactical environments. MoD Russia video shows paratroopers raising flags in Chasiv Yar. Janus Putkonen claims RF "egg-running" advances in Donbass. Kotsnews shares photo of new anti-tank 'Motiv'. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports enemy DRGs operating deep in Pokrovsk. Два майора shares video "Frontline Armor" with soldier and military truck in trench. Воин DV shares video of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade destroying enemy transport/communication. Colonelcassad reports on RF assault and reconnaissance personnel on Southern Donetsk direction. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition states Chasiv Yar under RF control, next step offensive on Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of heavily modified "Frankenstein" truck. Alex Parker Returns demonstrates capability to transport large quantities of defensive obstacles. Сливочный каприз shares aerial reconnaissance showing active military operations in Krasny Liman - Zelenoye Pole area (presumably Lyman direction), indicating ongoing ground forces engagement. Старше Эдды claims Chasiv Yar liberation and intention to stage offensive on Sloviansk-Kramatorsk. Басурин о главном similarly claims Chasiv Yar liberation and offensive on Kostyantynivka. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports VDV presence on Zaporizhzhia direction. Kadyrov_95 shares thermal footage of Akhmat special forces engaging UA manpower in Kharkiv direction. STERNENKO shares video of Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian vehicle (with cage-like structure) in Siversk direction. Воин DV shares video demonstrating FPV drone mining operations, indicating adaptive use of drones for ground force support. Colonelcassad shares a map of Southern Donetsk direction, confirming ongoing RF ground activity. Colonelcassad shares video of reconnaissance elements from the Vostok group thanking subscribers for body armor, indicating reliance on public support. Рыбарь provides a comic strip titled "Once upon a time in a tank brigade," potentially a morale-boosting or narrative-shaping piece. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video from 24th Mechanized Brigade debunking Russian claims about Chasiv Yar, showing tactical operations and enemy losses. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares thermal footage from the Zaporizhzhia front, showing potential vehicle or personnel activity. Операция Z shares a photo message claiming RF is completing the defeat of the enemy in the Oleksandropol-Kalynove area, effectively encircling Kostiantynivka. Филолог в засаде shares a video showing the work of an evacuation group from the 103rd Motor Rifle Regiment, 150th Motorized Rifle Division, operating in the Kostiantynivka direction. «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» shares a video with soldiers in tactical gear, reinforcing national pride. Воин DV shares video of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade destroying enemy armored vehicle via FPV drone, which detonated a pre-placed mine in Alexandrogad, indicating combined arms effectiveness. Два майора reports on the Konstantinovka direction. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" provides a summary for July 31st, likely detailing ground force actions and outcomes. MoD Russia shares a video titled "Serviceman of an assault detachment Aleksandr Bushmelev spoke in detail about liberation of Koptevo and Novotoretskoye in the Donetsk People's Republic," confirming RF ground offensive capabilities. MoD Russia shares a video of a soldier discussing difficulties of movement, use of anti-drone ponchos, and motorcycle transport, indicating adaptive ground tactics and the challenges of sustaining operations. Операция Z shares a video stating Zelensky confirmed small groups of RF forces are breaking through into Pokrovsk. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing a Russian soldier with a severe facial injury on the Southern front, indicating ongoing combat. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a request for contact from the 503rd regiment. Colonelcassad shares a video depicting a drone dropping an ordnance into a dugout/trench system. Zelenskiy / Official reports Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi states UA units are holding all positions, and are eliminating Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups in Pokrovsk and Dobropillia. ASTRA reports on the disappearance of two battalion commanders of the 5th Brigade in the "DNR" after being summoned to superiors, suggesting potential internal purges or discipline issues. Сливочный каприз shares photos and videos of damaged forested areas and military personnel movement in the Siversk - Ivano-Daryevka direction as of July 31, 2025. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides an operational update as of 22:00 (19:00Z) on July 31, 2025, detailing ongoing heavy combat, particularly on the Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar directions, and confirming that RF forces are conducting assault operations in some areas. Colonelcassad shares a video titled "Combat work of Uragan MLRS #1st_tank_army Group Z," explicitly showing the firing of an Uragan MLRS and drone footage of the impact. This indicates RF's ability to coordinate large-scale artillery support for ground operations. New update: Операция Z shares new photos and video claiming "Взятие Часов Яра: 217 полк водрузил флаги на последней улице на юге города, посрамив Зеленского," indicating continued RF ground efforts to claim control of Chasiv Yar. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video titled "Дякуємо таким московитам за те, що вони економлять наше БК і при цьому створюють яскраві кадри" showing UA drone footage of RF soldiers in a trench system. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - noting low confidence on Chasiv Yar claims, and the latest RF claim of UA confirmation is unverified and contradictory to public UA statements. New UA video refutation of Chasiv Yar is significant. The "bears" videos from «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» are propaganda, not actual dispositions, but the tactical training footage from the same source is relevant. Colonelcassad's latest is a propaganda/morale piece. New Operatsiya Z update reinforces RF claims on Chasiv Yar but remains unverified.)
  • Electronic Warfare (EW): Demonstrated advanced EW capabilities with first operational deployment of Shipovnik-Aero. MoD Russia claims EW station destruction in Zaporozhye. Colonelcassad shares video of 'Rubikon' system targeting communication assets. Народная милиция ДНР claims destruction of Israeli-made AFU radar. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides drone footage showing successful disabling of EW equipment on a truck by Ukrainian forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Operations: Highly capable of generating and disseminating false flag narratives, exploiting internal UA issues, discrediting UA, and promoting own advances. Increased aggressive rhetoric, openly mocking Ukrainian air defenses and celebrating attacks. Utilizing military bloggers. New claims regarding foreign nuclear weapons in UK likely intended to escalate tensions. RF sources overtly celebrating Kyiv attacks indicate intent to terrorize. Colonelcassad shares video claiming RT audience in US larger than CNN. ТАСС shares video of couple convicted for collecting military data. Alex Parker Returns comments on Crocus attack perpetrators. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian media publishing genocidal rhetoric. Alex Parker Returns celebrates harm to UA veteran. Операция Z propagates "circus in the Rada." TASS reports Lukashenka's statements. Alex Parker Returns states "August will be a turning point." Colonelcassad shares video of detention of man from Saksky district, Crimea, accused of supporting AFU. ТАСС reports Patrushev claims NATO turning Baltic into zone of instability. Операция Z claims Nicaragua officially recognized new territories. Janus Putkonen shares Zaluzhny "Vogue model" photo. Операция Z shares "Russian Gerans rip AFU to shreds." Colonelcassad immediately attributes the Aeroflot cyberattack to Western-supported Ukrainian hackers, framing it as foreign aggression. Alex Parker Returns continues to spread racist and divisive narratives related to the Crocus attack, exploiting ethnic stereotypes. Рыбарь propagates xenophobic narratives about "ethnic occupation of markets" in Russia, linking migration to criminal activity and illicit capital outflow. Два майора's video on "SVO fighters won't give bad advice" suggests a propaganda effort to enhance trust in military personnel and their recommendations, possibly related to recruitment or internal compliance. Военкор Котенок reports on RF MoD figures for Ukrainian losses in Chasiv Yar, reinforcing RF claims of success. ТАСС reports MVD has put Sota journalists on wanted list, demonstrating continued crackdown on independent media. TASS reports Putin signed law allowing families of foreigners who died fighting for RF to apply for citizenship, aiming to boost morale/recruitment of foreign fighters. Alex Parker Returns highlights internal social tensions through a pensioner being fined for defending the "Russian community" in VK comments, suggesting internal social tensions. TASS reports Putin signed a law increasing fines for parents not fulfilling their child-rearing duties. Старше Эдды actively promotes Chasiv Yar liberation and future offensive on Sloviansk-Kramatorsk. Басурин о главном similarly reinforces this narrative. Alex Parker Returns claims "Parker's magic button continues to work," implying influence over events, likely a propaganda/disinformation tactic. Операция Z emphasizes new law introducing fines for extremist searches, demonstrating an intent to control information access and suppress dissent. TASS reports RF embassy in Sweden accused Swedish media of using Ukrainian children for fake accusations against Russia, indicating diplomatic efforts to counter negative narratives. TASS reports RKN's request to remove Speedtest Ookla software, indicating further control over internet tools. TASS reports Rubio stating US held contacts with Russian representatives to achieve understanding on peace in Ukraine, aiming to shape narrative on peace efforts. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС shares a propaganda video of a man in military-style beret, highlighting RF's use of personality-driven content. «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» uses anthropomorphic bears in military settings as a unique propaganda tactic. Рыбарь produces comic strips, indicating diversified propaganda methods. TASS shares Shvydkoy's full comment on the dismantling of the Aivazovsky monument, attempting to control the narrative regarding cultural heritage. Kotsnews shares a poll about Trump, reflecting RF's interest in shaping narratives around Western leadership. Alex Parker Returns comments on a new law blocking films that "discredit traditional values," indicating RF's capability to enforce moral censorship. Два майора's animated propaganda using anthropomorphic cats in military settings, symbolizing war's impact, likely for morale or narrative shaping. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Peskov's statement on Putin's upcoming important address, suggesting a centralized response to international events. РБК-Україна similarly reports Putin's important statement. ASTRA reports on the death of Derk Sauer, founder of "Vedomosti" and director of "Dozhd". While not directly military, this indicates a capability to report on the internal media landscape of Russia and its associated personnel. ASTRA also reports a search of the Lipetsk KPRF premises, which RF media may use to frame internal political control measures. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message criticizing slow progress, which could be part of an internal narrative management or frustration sharing. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video featuring a White House press secretary stating Trump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize for his peace efforts, indicating RF's intent to promote a specific narrative about international diplomacy. Alex Parker Returns shares a video capturing multiple explosions in Kyiv at night, with the caption mocking Ukrainian air defenses, indicating continued psychological operations. Alex Parker Returns disseminates a White House statement that Trump has achieved effectiveness in one peace agreement or ceasefire per month, and deserves the Nobel Peace Prize, confirming RF's intent to amplify narratives favorable to their diplomatic objectives. MoD Russia posts a daily figure photo message which is a form of information operation. Старше Эдды comments on Trump's volatile mood, which is an attempt to shape narratives. ТАСС reports Putin signed a law refusing film distribution licenses for discrediting traditional values. Операция Z reports that Ukraine is building "dragon's teeth." Новости Москвы shares a video about a mother hitting her child in the Moscow region. This appears to be RF propaganda focused on alleged social decay in Ukraine, despite the content suggesting it is within Russia. Операция Z claims RF launched as many drones in July as the whole of last year," a clear propaganda effort to highlight scale and impact. ASTRA reports on the appointment of Boris Добродеев as head of "Lesta" gaming studio, a strategic move by RF to control cultural influence within Russia. Операция Z claims "The surrender of Pokrovsk is a matter of time," citing The Telegraph, highlighting a new RF information operation to demoralize UA and signal impending success. STERNENKO reports Putin's important statement, then withdrawal. Военкор Котенок shares aerial photos of "liberated" Chasiv Yar, reinforcing RF claims of control. ASTRA shares photos depicting widespread destruction in Chasiv Yar after "liberation," reinforcing RF claims of control. Рыбарь provides a summary of July 31st, indicating a continued focus on daily reporting and narrative control. New updates: Операция Z shares new photos and video claiming Chasiv Yar capture, reinforcing propaganda. Alex Parker Returns shares new photo message about a judge and migrants, continuing to highlight internal social tensions. Kotsnews shares photo "Азертадж учит ТАСС географии" to undermine TASS's credibility. Рыбарь shares new photo message "📝О чём говорит Рыбарь📝" for narrative control. ТАСС reports Alexander Maximtsev, Chief of General Staff, stating "VKS RF destroy about 95% of enemy air attacks," a clear propaganda statement of high effectiveness. TASS shares photo message of Lavrov's article stating EU and NATO distort facts to rewrite history, indicating a renewed propaganda push against Western narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - noting medium confidence on Nicaragua claim, and recognizing meme nature of some IO)
• Intentions:
  • Strategic Attrition: Continue to degrade Ukrainian military/civilian infrastructure through persistent, high-intensity, layered aerial strikes (KABs, Shaheds, ballistic/cruise missiles), with clear intent to terrorize and overwhelm air defenses. This is confirmed by Kyiv strikes, targeting of residential buildings, and celebration by RF sources. Intent to target logistics hubs (Pavlohrad) and key military-industrial targets within Russia (Penza). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Territorial Expansion: Maintain and intensify ground pressure on Pokrovsk axis, aiming for decisive breakthrough. Continue probing in Sumy and using special forces in Kharkiv. Exploit claimed breakthroughs like Chasiv Yar for further offensives, potentially towards Kostiantynivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare/Propaganda: Continuously blame UA for civilian casualties and disseminate propaganda discrediting Ukraine. Promote narratives of own advances. Intensify psychological operations. Control internal narratives. New claims re: foreign nuclear weapons in UK likely to escalate tensions. RF sources likely to link Kyiv attacks to Western provocations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian media publishing genocidal rhetoric. Alex Parker Returns shows intent to degrade UA morale by celebrating veteran casualties. Операция Z shows intent to discredit UA political leadership. Операция Z's claim about Nicaragua recognizing annexed territories is clear intent to legitimize illegal annexations. Alex Parker Returns's content regarding the Crocus attack indicates an intent to propagate divisive narratives and racist sentiments regarding victims. Рыбарь's content on "ethnic occupation of markets" reflects an adaptation to internal social issues by using xenophobic narratives for scapegoating and control. ТАСС reports MVD has put Sota journalists on wanted list, demonstrating intent to silence independent reporting. TASS reports Putin signed law allowing families of foreign fighters to apply for citizenship, intent to boost foreign fighter recruitment/morale. Alex Parker Returns highlights internal social friction, suggesting intent to exploit societal divisions. TASS reports Putin signed law increasing fines for parents, indicating intent to reinforce social control. Alex Parker Returns's self-promotion as having a "magic button" further indicates an intent to foster a sense of powerful, unseen influence over events, feeding into pro-RF narratives of control and destiny. Операция Z's emphasis on the new law on extremist searches shows an intent to tighten control over information and suppress any form of dissent or independent inquiry into government actions. TASS reports RF embassy in Sweden accusing Swedish media of fake accusations concerning Ukrainian children, indicating intent to pre-emptively counter negative narratives. TASS reports RKN's request to remove Speedtest Ookla, demonstrating intent to restrict tools for bypassing internet censorship. TASS reports Rubio stating US held contacts with Russian representatives, aiming to shape narrative on peace efforts. TASS shares Shvydkoy's full comment on the dismantling of the Aivazovsky monument, indicating intent to control the narrative regarding cultural heritage. Alex Parker Returns reports Putin signed a law blocking films/series that "discredit traditional values," indicating an intent to impose moral censorship and control information. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Peskov's statement on Putin's upcoming address, indicating intent to issue a high-level response to international developments. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports 3 fatalities in Polohivskyi district after an alleged Ukrainian attack on a civilian vehicle. This indicates a clear intent by RF to blame UA for civilian casualties. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message criticizing slow progress, likely to manage expectations or express frustration, confirming RF's intent to control morale narratives. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video featuring a White House press secretary promoting Trump's peace efforts, which RF intends to use to shape international perceptions of peace initiatives. Операция Z claims "The surrender of Pokrovsk is a matter of time," citing The Telegraph, highlighting a new RF information operation to demoralize UA and signal impending success. STERNENKO reports Putin's important statement, then withdrawal. New updates: Alex Parker Returns shares new photo message about a judge and migrants, indicating intent to focus on internal ethnic/social tensions. Kotsnews shares photo "Азертадж учит ТАСС географии" which could indicate intent to control information accuracy. Рыбарь shares a photo message "📝О чём говорит Рыбарь📝" indicating continued intent to manage narratives. ТАСС shares Trump's statement about sanctions against RF, implying RF's intent to downplay the impact of Western pressure. TASS shares Lavrov's article statement, indicating intent to counter Western historical narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Courses of Action: RF will continue massed aerial attacks, primarily with KABs (including FAB-1500) and Shahed UAVs, extending to Northern Kyiv, Western Ukraine, and key logistics hubs like Pavlohrad, immediately followed by ballistic/cruise missile launches. Ground offensives will persist on Pokrovsk axis with further mechanized assaults and urban penetration. RF will continue to utilize drones for reconnaissance/targeting, increasing Lancet strikes, leveraging new EW systems. RF will intensify information warfare, with aggressive rhetoric, and continue to control internal narratives. RF will continue to emphasize military-industrial targets in Ukraine and potentially launch further attacks on its own territory for false-flag purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Intensified Layered Air/Missile Strikes on Kyiv & Expanded Range: Immediate follow-up of high-volume Shahed attack with ballistic/cruise missile threats and confirmed ballistic strike on Kyiv (16 fatalities, 159 injured, 12 children, 124 casualties total) demonstrates highly coordinated, multi-layered assault. Expanded Shahed range to Northern Kyiv and Western Ukraine, and now Poltava Oblast. First reported FAB-1500 strike on Kupyansk. Confirmed strike on Pavlohrad railway junction. Damage to Kyiv railway infrastructure. STERNENKO confirms damage to "Umma" mosque. MoD Russia explicitly targets military airfield infrastructure/ammunition depots. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno confirms hits on railway traction substation/signaling station. Colonelcassad claims Iskander-M strike on tuberculosis dispensary. Strike on Kramatorsk center, destroying residential building, indicates continued targeting of civilian areas. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF struck Kyiv with Iskander-K from Kursk Oblast. Военкор Котенок reports on difficulty of shooting down reactive "Gerans." АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА provides footage of coordinated strikes on an airfield runway, indicating RF's capability to target air infrastructure. Повітряні Сили ЗС України confirms repeated KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast. РБК-Україна features an expert discussing RF's inability to fully transition to reactive Shaheds due to cost and production, indicating potential limitations. WarGonzo reports UA UAV struck firefighters in Luhansk, injuring five, showing RF vulnerability to targeted drone strikes. Colonelcassad shares drone footage of FAB-500 with UMPK glide bomb striking an automobile crossing of the Volchya River near Velikomikhailovka, demonstrating adaptive precision strike capabilities against logistics. Оперативний ЗСУ's OSINT data confirms a 1378% increase in RF drone launches in July 2025 compared to July 2024, representing a significant tactical adaptation towards drone saturation attacks. MoD Russia reports Supercam S350 UAV teams located a control post of heavy drones and manpower cluster in Kharkov direction, indicating adaptive ISR and targeting. РБК-Україна provides video of Ukrainian Presidential Brigade successfully downing an Iskander-K missile, demonstrating adaptive air defense. Два майора video of large explosion in Dnipropetrovsk indicates continued strike capability. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video displaying a large plume of smoke, suggesting a recent large-scale strike. WarGonzo demonstrates RF FPV drone capabilities for reconnaissance and attack missions using IEDs/munitions, showing continued adaptation in aerial targeting. Colonelcassad shares an animated map illustrating claimed strikes across Ukraine on 30-31 July, confirming RF's focus on widespread aerial activity as a tactical adaptation. Another strike on GUR in Odesa Oblast reported by "Два майора". Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports threat of enemy strike UAVs from the Black Sea in Mykolaiv Oblast. Alex Parker Returns shares a video capturing multiple explosions in Kyiv at night, mocking Ukrainian air defenses, demonstrating a psychological adaptation to spread demoralization. Colonelcassad shares video of FPV drone operated by 144th MSD destroying a 155mm Polish AHS Krab. Операция Z claims RF launched as many drones in July as the whole of last year, indicating a significant tactical shift to drone saturation. Два майора shares aerial footage of multiple explosions on the Zaporizhzhia front, confirming continued air/missile strike capabilities. Alex Parker Returns shares an image of a 3D rendered drone (possibly a loitering munition) with the caption claiming 6,297 launches in July (1374% increase vs. July 2024), indicating a significant tactical adaptation towards drone saturation attacks. New updates: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports new warning for 🛵 Кіровоградська, Черкаська, Одеська області - загроза застосування ворогом ударних БпЛА! confirming continued multi-region drone threats. WarGonzo reports "⚡️Таганрог атакуют дроны⚡️" indicating a new drone attack in Rostov Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports new groups of enemy UAVs on the southeastern side of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a northwest course. Повітряні Сили ЗС України warns of threats to Cherkasy. Игорь Артамонов reports air danger mode across Lipetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Aggressive Ground Maneuvers (Pokrovsk & Chasiv Yar): Ongoing "intensely escalating" situation on Pokrovsk axis, with claimed advancements into residential areas and resumed company-sized mechanized assaults. RF "CENTRE" grouping employing FPV drones. RF MoD claims complete liberation of Chasiv Yar and destruction of largest AFU grouping, reinforced by video. TASS claims collapse of UA defenses on Kostiantynivka direction. Kotsnews shares footage of assault work under Pokrovsk. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Alex Parker Returns assert Chasiv Yar liberation. TASS (Alausdinov) asserts Chasiv Yar liberation breached UA defenses. Операция Z provides video of fierce battles near Pokrovsk. Colonelcassad claims UA acknowledges loss of Kamiansk (unverified). Сили оборони Півдня України directly refutes Kamianske capture. TASS video shows VDV units "liberating" Chasiv Yar. Kotsnews shares videos of tactical movements. MoD Russia shares video of paratroopers raising flags in Chasiv Yar. Janus Putkonen reiterates RF ground advances. Kotsnews shares photo of new anti-tank 'Motiv'. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports enemy DRGs operating deep in Pokrovsk. DeepState reports occupation of Kam'yans'ke. DeepState directly refutes RF Chasiv Yar claims. Colonelcassad reports UA's "factual loss" of Chasiv Yar but continued presence in private sector (RF narrative adaptation). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition states Chasiv Yar under RF control, next step offensive on Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of heavily modified "Frankenstein" truck. Alex Parker Returns demonstrates adaptation in transporting defensive materials to the front. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shows continued aerial reconnaissance and targeting in Chasiv Yar. TASS claims destruction of AFU assault group in Sumy, indicating adaptive counter-insurgency tactics. Сливочный каприз shares aerial reconnaissance showing active military operations in Krasny Liman - Zelenoye Pole area (presumably Lyman direction), indicating ongoing ground forces engagement. Старше Эдды states Chasiv Yar is under RF control and will be a staging area for Sloviansk-Kramatorsk offensive. Басурин о главном similarly claims Chasiv Yar liberation and offensive on Kostyantynivka. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows Ukrainian tank operations near a settlement, indicating ongoing fierce combat. Kadyrov_95 shares thermal footage of Akhmat special forces targeting UA manpower in Kharkiv direction, indicating adaptive and targeted ground operations. STERNENKO shares video of Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian vehicle (with cage-like structure) in Siversk direction. TASS (Yan Gagin) claims RF forces have established fire control over "dozens of kilometers" around Chasiv Yar. TASS (Marochko) claims UA forces will be forced to retreat from Donetsk Oblast after Chasiv Yar liberation, showing a proactive narrative push. Воин DV shares video demonstrating FPV drone mining operations, indicating an adaptive use of drones for close-range ground force support. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 provides drone footage of personnel movement and damaged structures in Volchansk, showing continued active reconnaissance and targeting in Kharkiv direction. Colonelcassad shares a map of Southern Donetsk direction, indicating recent RF advances and tactical movements. Colonelcassad shares video of reconnaissance elements from the Vostok group thanking subscribers for body armor, indicating reliance on public support. «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» shares a video with soldiers in tactical gear, reinforcing national pride. Филолог в засаде shares a video detailing the work of a Russian evacuation group from the 103rd Motor Rifle Regiment, 150th Motor Rifle Division, operating in the Kostiantynivka direction. Воин DV demonstrates combined arms capabilities, using FPV drones to destroy an armored vehicle on a pre-placed mine in Alexandrogad. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's report on fierce battles and RF DRG destruction in Pokrovsk direction, indicating continued aggressive ground maneuvers. Operatyvnyi ZSU shares new video from "Donbas" battalion (18th NGU Brigade) providing additional footage from Chasiv Yar, directly refuting RF "TikToker" claims of capture. This represents UA's adaptive counter-propaganda strategy. MoD Russia shares a video on the liberation of Koptevo and Novotoretskoye in Donetsk People's Republic by Aleksandr Bushmelev, confirming RF ground offensive capabilities. MoD Russia shares a video of a soldier discussing the difficulties of movement, use of anti-drone ponchos, and motorcycle transport, indicating adaptive ground tactics and the challenges of sustaining operations. Операция Z shares a video stating Zelensky confirmed small groups of RF forces are breaking through into Pokrovsk. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing a Russian soldier with a severe facial injury on the Southern front, indicating the ongoing intensity of ground combat. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a request for contact from the 503rd regiment. Colonelcassad shares a video depicting a drone dropping an ordnance into a dugout/trench system. Zelenskiy / Official reports Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi states UA units are holding all positions, and are eliminating Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups in Pokrovsk and Dobropillia. ASTRA reports on the disappearance of two battalion commanders of the 5th Brigade in the "DNR" after being summoned to superiors, suggesting potential internal purges or discipline issues. Сливочный каприз shares photos and videos of damaged forested areas and military personnel movement in the Siversk - Ivano-Daryevka direction as of July 31, 2025. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides an operational update as of 22:00 (19:00Z) on July 31, 2025, detailing heavy combat particularly on the Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar directions, and confirming that RF forces are conducting assault operations in some areas. Colonelcassad shares a video titled "Combat work of Uragan MLRS #1st_tank_army Group Z," explicitly showing the firing of an Uragan MLRS and drone footage of the impact, indicating adaptive large-scale artillery support for ground forces. New update: Операция Z shares new photos and video claiming "Взятие Часов Яра: 217 полк водрузил флаги на последней улице на юге города, посрамив Зеленского," indicating continued RF ground efforts to claim control of Chasiv Yar. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video titled "Дякуємо таким московитам за те, що вони економлять наше БК і при цьому створюють яскраві кадри" showing UA drone footage of RF soldiers in a trench system. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - noting UA denial of Chasiv Yar liberation and conflicting Kamianske reports)
• Electronic Warfare Deployment (Chasiv Yar): First confirmed operational deployment of Shipovnik-Aero. MoD Russia claims EW station destruction in Zaporozhye. Colonelcassad shares video of 'Rubikon' system targeting communication assets. Народная милиция ДНР claims destruction of Israeli-made AFU radar. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides drone footage showing successful disabling of EW equipment on a truck by Ukrainian forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Increased Loitering Munition Use (Chasiv Yar): 50% increase in Lancet strikes. TASS claims Lancet use in Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Enhanced FPV Drone Payload Threat (Avdiivka): Increasing reports indicate Russian FPV drones equipped with thermobaric warheads. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Aggressive RF Rhetoric: Escalation of threatening rhetoric from RF military bloggers/propagandists, open mockery of UA air defenses, explicit threats, celebration of civilian hits. New RF claims of UA defense collapse. Medvedev's latest statements (e.g., "Dead Hand") are IO. ARCHENGEL SPETSNAZ spreads unverified claims about Mexican cartel members in UA forces. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition frames Chasiv Yar as decisive. Alex Parker Returns amplifies this, and focuses on Trump's statements. ТАСС promotes conviction of couple for collecting military data. Alex Parker Returns comments on Crocus attack. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian media publishing genocidal headline. Alex Parker Returns celebrates harm to UA veteran. Операция Z portrays internal UA political conflicts as "circus." Colonelcassad frames NABU/SAP vote as Western-imposed. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on liquidation of RF drone operator Daria Trofimova. Colonelcassad shares video of detained Crimean man, framing pro-UA views as "Nazi slogans." БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides photo of Russian propaganda calling for war crimes/genocide. Операция Z reports on teenager arrested for arsons. Операция Z claims Nicaragua officially recognized new territories. Janus Putkonen shares Zaluzhny "Vogue model" photo. Операция Z shares "Russian Gerans rip AFU to shreds." Colonelcassad immediately attributes the Aeroflot cyberattack to Western-supported Ukrainian hackers, framing it as foreign aggression. Alex Parker Returns continues to spread racist and divisive narratives related to the Crocus attack, exploiting ethnic stereotypes. Рыбарь propagates xenophobic narratives about "ethnic occupation of markets" by migrants, linking them to crime and illicit capital outflow, aiming to stir internal social unrest and justify discriminatory policies. Два майора's video on "SVO fighters won't give bad advice" suggests a propaganda effort to enhance trust in military personnel and their recommendations, possibly related to recruitment or internal compliance. Военкор Котенок reports on RF MoD figures for Ukrainian losses in Chasiv Yar, reinforcing RF claims of success. ТАСС reports MVD has put Sota journalists on wanted list, suppressing independent media. TASS reports Putin signed law allowing families of foreigners fighting for RF to apply for citizenship, indicating adaptive recruitment messaging. Alex Parker Returns highlights internal social friction, adapting to exploit societal divisions. TASS reports Putin signed law increasing fines for parents, showcasing state control over social narratives. STERNENKO's response to Trump's proposal, with aggressive rhetoric against Putin/Russia, indicates a reciprocal adaptation in online information warfare. Старше Эдды continues aggressive rhetoric about Chasiv Yar. Басурин о главном similarly reinforces aggressive narratives. Alex Parker Returns claims "Parker's magic button continues to work," a self-aggrandizing claim intended to project power and control. Операция Z emphasizes new law introducing fines for extremist searches, demonstrating an intent to tighten control over information and suppress any form of dissent or independent inquiry into government actions. Басурин о главном uses destroyed church video to blame UA and promote RF's narrative of defending religious sites. TASS reports RF embassy in Sweden accusing Swedish media of fake accusations concerning Ukrainian children, indicating a proactive narrative defense. TASS reports RKN's request to remove Speedtest Ookla, indicating an adaptation to tighten internet control. TASS reports Rubio stating US held contacts with Russian representatives, indicating RF's adaptive narrative to portray engagement in peace talks. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС shares a propaganda video of a man in military-style beret, highlighting RF's use of personality-driven content. «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» uses anthropomorphic bears in military settings as a unique propaganda tactic. Рыбарь produces comic strips, indicating diversified propaganda methods. TASS shares Shvydkoy's full comment on the dismantling of the Aivazovsky monument, attempting to control the narrative regarding cultural heritage. Kotsnews shares a poll about Trump, reflecting RF's interest in shaping narratives around Western leadership. Alex Parker Returns comments on a new law blocking films that "discredit traditional values," indicating an adaptation to enforce moral censorship. Два майора's animated propaganda with anthropomorphic cats, indicating an adaptation of IO using AI/neural networks. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Peskov stated Putin would deliver an important address, possibly on Trump's threats, indicating a reactive posture. РБК-Україна similarly reports Putin's important statement. ASTRA reports on the death of Derk Sauer, founder of "Vedomosti" and director of "Dozhd". While not directly military, this indicates a capability to report on the internal media landscape of Russia and its associated personnel. ASTRA also reports a search of the Lipetsk KPRF premises, which RF media may use to frame internal political control measures. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message criticizing slow progress, which could be part of an internal narrative management or frustration sharing. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video featuring a White House press secretary stating Trump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize for his peace efforts, indicating RF's intent to promote a specific narrative about international diplomacy. Alex Parker Returns shares a video capturing multiple explosions in Kyiv at night, with the caption mocking Ukrainian air defenses, demonstrating a psychological adaptation to spread demoralization. Alex Parker Returns disseminates a White House statement that Trump has achieved effectiveness in one peace agreement or ceasefire per month, and deserves the Nobel Peace Prize, confirming RF's intent to amplify narratives favorable to their diplomatic objectives. MoD Russia posts a daily figure photo message which is a form of information operation. Старше Эдды comments on Trump's shifting moods. ТАСС reports Putin signed a law refusing film distribution licenses for discrediting traditional values. Операция Z reports that Ukraine is building "dragon's teeth." Новости Москвы shares a video about a mother hitting her child in the Moscow region. This appears to be RF propaganda focused on alleged social decay in Ukraine, despite the content suggesting it is within Russia. Операция Z claims RF launched as many drones in July as the whole of last year, indicating a significant tactical shift to drone saturation and its propaganda implications. ASTRA reports on the appointment of Boris Добродеев as head of "Lesta" gaming studio, a strategic move by RF to control cultural influence within Russia. Операция Z claims "The surrender of Pokrovsk is a matter of time," citing The Telegraph, highlighting a new RF information operation to demoralize UA and signal impending success. STERNENKO reports Putin's important statement, then withdrawal. Военкор Котенок shares aerial photos of "liberated" Chasiv Yar, reinforcing RF claims of control. ASTRA shares photos depicting widespread destruction in Chasiv Yar after "liberation," reinforcing RF claims of control. Рыбарь provides a summary of July 31st, indicating a continued focus on daily reporting and narrative control. New updates: Операция Z shares new photos and video claiming Chasiv Yar capture, reinforcing propaganda. Alex Parker Returns shares new photo message about a judge and migrants, continuing to highlight internal social tensions. Kotsnews shares photo "Азертадж учит ТАСС географии" to undermine TASS's credibility. Рыбарь shares a new photo message "📝О чём говорит Рыбарь📝" for narrative control. ТАСС reports Alexander Maximtsev, Chief of General Staff, stating "VKS RF destroy about 95% of enemy air attacks," a clear propaganda statement of high effectiveness. TASS shares photo message of Lavrov's article stating EU and NATO distort facts to rewrite history, indicating a renewed propaganda push against Western narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - noting medium confidence on Nicaragua claim, and recognizing meme nature of some IO)
• Targeting Infrastructure and Communications: Continued adaptive targeting of civilian infrastructure (Vasyshcheve, Kyiv residential/industrial, Pavlohrad railway junction, Volgograd railway/gas, Penza Radio Plant). Damage to Kyiv railway infrastructure. STERNENKO confirms damage to "Umma" mosque. MoD Russia explicitly targets military airfield infrastructure/ammunition depots. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno confirms hits on railway traction substation/signaling station. Colonelcassad claims Iskander-M strike on tuberculosis dispensary. Strike on Kramatorsk residential building confirms continued targeting of civilian infrastructure. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports destruction of almost 700 hectares of grain. Два майора reports UA drone attack on Sluchevsk, Bryansk Oblast, injuring civilian. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА confirms continued targeting of airfield/runway infrastructure. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides drone footage showing successful disabling of EW equipment on a truck by Ukrainian forces. Colonelcassad shares drone footage of FAB-500 with UMPK glide bomb striking an automobile crossing of the Volchya River near Velikomikhailovka, demonstrating adaptive precision strike capabilities against logistics. Два майора video of large explosion in Dnipropetrovsk indicates continued targeting of infrastructure. Два майора shares drone video showing explosion in residential area, possibly Dnipropetrovsk. "Два майора" reports another strike on GUR in Odesa Oblast, indicating continued adaptive targeting of UA intelligence/military infrastructure. Colonelcassad shares video of FPV drone operated by 144th MSD destroying a 155mm Polish AHS Krab. Два майора shares aerial footage of multiple explosions on the Zaporizhzhia front, suggesting continued infrastructure targeting. Colonelcassad shares video of the aftermath of attacks in Dnipropetrovsk, showing extensive damage to industrial/military facilities, twisted metal, and smoke plumes. Mash на Донбассе reports a school collapsed in Makeevka. New update: НгП раZVедка shares video "⚠️Уничтожение моста. Константиновка." showing an explosion near a road, confirming continued targeting of transportation infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Decoy Deployment (Kherson): "Oduvanchik" wireframe structure indicates RF efforts to adapt to UA drone superiority. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Targeting of Ukrainian Logistics and Personnel through Agent Networks: SBU confirmed FSB agent detained for adjusting RF shelling of Kharkiv's energy infrastructure. Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU/BEB exposed chief financier stealing funds for drones. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports liquidation of RF drone operator delivering FPV drones under aid disguise. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports collaborator deputy transferred harvest to RF. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports detention of former state employee who helped enemy target strategic enterprise. TASS reports 18-year-old Mariupol resident sentenced for collecting data. ASTRA reports Sevastopol photographer sentenced to 22 years. Colonelcassad shares video of 18-year-old Mariupol resident sentenced to 7 years for collecting data on RF Armed Forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Counter-UAV/Robotics in Ground Operations: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports NGU "Khartia" Brigade destroyed Russian ground robotic complex. Старше Эдды acknowledges UA drone superiority but foresees diminished effectiveness due to RF countermeasures. MoD Russia details Supercam S350 UAV teams locating and targeting "Baba Yaga" drones, indicating adaptive counter-drone tactics. MoD Russia shares a video of a soldier speaking about the use of anti-drone ponchos, indicating adaptive protective measures against UA drones. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Ukraine Acquiring New Drone Munitions: Colonelcassad shares images of new munitions for drones, attributed to Ukraine with Danish support. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• RF Internal Security Targeting of Sabotage: Increased focus on railway sabotage, with arrests of teenagers. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares video on arrest of saboteur in Ufa. Colonelcassad shares video of detained Crimean man, for supporting AFU. TASS reports Putin signed law on fines for intentional search of extremist materials and VPN advertising. ASTRA reports on new Putin-signed restrictive laws. TASS reports Putin signed law increasing fines for parents, showcasing adaptive internal control. Операция Z reports Putin signed law introducing fines for extremist searches, tightening information control. TASS reports Putin signed a law stripping acquired Russian citizenship for various crimes including "cooperation with other countries against Russia," demonstrating an aggressive adaptation to solidify internal control and suppress dissent. TASS reports information on migrant children in schools/colleges will be transferred to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, impacting migrant personnel dynamics. Два майора reports detention of a man in Kurgan for calls to extremism. ASTRA reports a search of the Lipetsk KPRF premises, indicating RF's adaptive internal security measures against perceived political dissent. ASTRA reports two Russian SOTA journalists were put on a wanted list after reporting in Sudzha, indicating adaptive targeting of independent media. ТАСС reports departmental security will be supplied with combat small arms to repel drone attacks, a law signed by Putin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Communication Control: ASTRA reports regional officials recommended to switch to Max messenger. New update: TASS reports over 4,000 Telegram users complained about a malfunction, which could indicate a shift towards other communication platforms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Financial Regulations (RF): TASS reports Bank of Russia established quantitative limits on mortgages. TASS reports Putin signed law allowing investigators/interrogators to suspend financial transactions. TASS reports new duties for state services. TASS reports 40 million rubles collected from Oleg Tinkov for Oleg Deripaska. Новости Москвы reports Putin signed law allowing tax authorities to collect debts without court order. TASS reports RF Government approved a bill on mortgage holidays for families with children, indicating an adaptive measure to social support measures. TASS reports Putin signed law obliging payments to be made within 30 days to the wounded, volunteers, and family members of those killed in the SVO, indicating formalized social support. TASS reports Putin signed a law on two pensions for SVO participants who became disabled. New update: ТАСС reports "Владимир Путин 31 июля подписал 85 законов, подсчитал ТАСС," indicating continued legislative activity in financial and other areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Diplomatic/Military Cooperation: TASS and MoD Russia report Belousov's talks with Laotian Defence Minister Khamlieng Outhakaisone, discussing military-technical cooperation and joint exercises, indicating proactive engagement with regional partners. TASS also reports Putin received Syrian Foreign Minister in Kremlin, further cementing alliances. TASS reports Rubio stating US held contacts with Russian representatives, indicating adaptive engagement in diplomatic sphere. TASS reports Bakanov stating agreement with acting NASA head on ISS operation until 2028 and inviting him to a Soyuz launch, demonstrating adaptive space diplomacy. Военкор Котенок reports humanitarian aid efforts by Rossotrudnichestvo for displaced persons from Nagorno-Karabakh in Armenia, showing a form of adaptive soft power/humanitarian diplomacy. New update: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Donald Trump's statements about Russia, implying continued US-RF diplomatic discussions or rhetoric. TASS reports Witkoff will visit Russia, citing Trump, indicating continued high-level diplomatic engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Polish/US Naval Cooperation in Baltic: Два майора reports Poland "secretly" testing American autonomous boats to enhance special operations in the Baltic Sea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Digital Infrastructure Control: TASS reports Roskomnadzor (RKN) sent a request to remove Speedtest Ookla software. Новости Москвы shares a video on Telegram updates, indicating RF's adaptive focus on controlling and utilizing digital platforms. ASTRA reminds users that ASTRA VPN has unlimited data. New update: TASS reports over 4,000 Telegram users complained about a malfunction, which could indicate a shift towards other communication platforms or a vulnerability in RF digital infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Film/Series Censorship (RF): Alex Parker Returns reports Putin signed a law blocking films/series that "discredit traditional values," indicating an adaptive measure to enforce moral censorship and control information. TASS reports Putin signed a law refusing film distribution licenses for discrediting traditional values. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Media Output: Полиция Хабаровского края shares photos of a police radio studio and a graduation ceremony at a police academy. These demonstrate RF's continued use of various media platforms for internal messaging, including public relations and national identity building. New update: Alex Parker Returns shares photo message about a judge and migrants, indicating continued use of social media for narrative control. Kotsnews shares photo "Азертадж учит ТАСС географии" which is a direct mockery of TASS's geographical understanding, possibly used to undermine its authority and accuracy. Рыбарь shares a new photo message "📝О чём говорит Рыбарь📝" indicating continued focus on narrative control. TASS shares photo message of Lavrov's article stating EU and NATO distort facts to rewrite history, indicating a renewed propaganda push against Western narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Ammunition & Fuel: RF's continued high-volume KAB, Shahed, ballistic, and cruise missile launches, plus increased Lancet/artillery, indicate substantial availability of munitions. MoD Russia confirms targeting of ammunition/missile depots. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video of Grad MLRS supports supply. Kotsnews shares photo of new anti-tank 'Motiv'. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 and БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС share video of "Khartia" destroying ammunition depot. Народная милиция ДНР reports humanitarian aid from Moscow for Donbas. Два майора shares a video of an explosion in agricultural fields on the Sumy direction, implying munitions usage. WarGonzo video on 44th Army Corps FPV drone operations highlights ongoing supply of drones and improvised munitions. Оперативний ЗСУ video of HIMARS strike on North Korean M-1978 "Koksan" self-propelled artillery, with ammunition detonation, suggests that RF is relying on external munitions supplies, which could be a vulnerability. Colonelcassad shares a video titled "Combat work of Uragan MLRS #1st_tank_army Group Z," explicitly showing the firing of an Uragan MLRS and drone footage of the impact. This indicates continued and possibly high consumption of MLRS munitions. New update: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of RF soldiers in a trench, which implies consumption of resources in maintaining these positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Personnel: UA actively addressing needs through recruitment and new policies. RF continues internal control, recruiting in occupied territories, military training in schools. Appeals for drone/Starlink by RF VDV suggest potential supply issues. Long queues at Luhansk hospital. RF legislation to expel foreigners suggests tighter internal control/recruitment difficulties. Sentencing of couple for collecting military data highlights internal repression. Fighterbomber reports military commissariat inviting volunteers. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports 31 bodies of liquidated RF servicemen in Tuva. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" reports 6694 RF officers demobilized. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports mobilized invalid given ruined apartment. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС reports complete failure of water supply in Donbas. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports children of deceased serviceman not receiving payments. Fighterbomber reports two of the best (pilots/crew) died. Mash на Донбассе reports on searching for more animals, indicating continued internal displacement of civilians/pets, and the humanitarian challenges associated with logistics and sustainment in occupied areas. TASS reports Putin signed law allowing families of foreigners who died fighting for RF to apply for citizenship, indicating a sustained effort to attract and retain foreign fighters and manage personnel. WarGonzo photo message shows Deputy Plenipotentiary of the Far Eastern Federal District meeting with volunteers in the SVO zone, indicating continued efforts to recruit and support personnel from regions. Colonelcassad reports RF MoD data on AFU losses in Chasiv Yar, with high numbers, suggesting RF perceives it has inflicted significant attrition on UA personnel, which directly impacts their own sustainment calculations. Военкор Котенок appeals for Mavic and Pro drones for VDV forces, indicating ongoing equipment needs and reliance on public donations for specific high-tech items. TASS reports Putin signed law obliging payments within 30 days to the wounded, volunteers, and family members of those killed in the SVO, indicating formalized social support. Colonelcassad shares video of Vostok Group reconnaissance elements receiving body armor, highlighting continued reliance on public donations for personnel sustainment. TASS reports information on migrant children in schools/colleges will be transferred to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, impacting migrant personnel dynamics. Филолог в засаде discusses reports of unlawful actions and crimes by RF military units, particularly the 51st Combined Arms Army and new formations of the Moscow Military District, highlighting internal discipline and personnel issues that could affect sustainment. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" provides a summary for July 31st, which likely includes personnel status. MoD Russia shares a video of a soldier speaking about difficulties of movement, use of anti-drone ponchos, and motorcycle transport, indicating ongoing logistical considerations for personnel. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a request for contact from the 503rd regiment. ТАСС reports Putin signed a law on two pensions for SVO participants who became disabled, indicating a formalized system for long-term personnel sustainment. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video appealing for drones and Starlink from the 7th Division in Zaporizhzhia direction, explicitly highlighting equipment needs for military operations. Военкор Котенок shares a video discussing the need for mobilization due to personnel shortages, and the increased use of drones. ASTRA reports on the disappearance of two battalion commanders, which could significantly impact morale and C2. Два майора shares a video appealing for donations for the Sumy direction, featuring three RF military personnel, indicating personnel needs and reliance on public support. New update: Операция Z shares new video of Chasiv Yar with soldiers claiming RF flags raised, indicating continued RF personnel presence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Materiel: UA using Bozena 5, innovative drone weaponization. RF fielding S-400 for ground strikes, new EW systems (Shipovnik-Aero). RF military bloggers soliciting public donations for thermal imagers suggests shortfall. Strike on Penza Radio Plant indicates effort to degrade RF materiel production. Rubezh NGU Brigade fundraising for lost equipment. Kotsnews recruitment video highlights financial incentives. "Oduvanchik" passive defense structure indicates efforts to counter UA drones. Colonelcassad shares video of ZALA Z-16 drones. Colonelcassad provides videos of "SVO Aid Fund." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports NGU "Khartia" Brigade destroyed Russian ground robotic complex. Новости Москвы reports Lada Iskra without AC. Kotsnews shares photo of new anti-tank 'Motiv'. РБК-Україна shares fundraising video for evacuation vehicle repair. Два майора reports naval unmanned technologies accelerating. Народная милиция ДНР reports humanitarian aid for Donbas soldiers/civilians. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) and Олександр Вілкул share photo messages regarding large shipments of military aid to UA forces. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of heavily modified "Frankenstein" truck. Alex Parker Returns shares a video depicting a civilian truck laden with defensive concertina wire, indicating a reliance on improvised or civilian-sourced logistics for defensive materiel. Fighterbomber expresses concerns about quality of donated "gifts" (aid), implying issues with consistent supply of effective materiel. Военкор Котенок's appeal for Mavic and Pro drones for VDV forces, indicates a specific and ongoing shortage of high-demand drone types within RF forces, highlighting a critical materiel gap. Colonelcassad shares video of Vostok Group reconnaissance elements receiving body armor, highlighting continued reliance on external materiel support. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 makes a direct appeal for drone components and transmitters for reconnaissance flights on the Kherson front, indicating ongoing materiel needs for UA forces. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video appealing for drones and Starlink from the 7th Division in Zaporizhzhia direction, explicitly highlighting equipment needs for military operations. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares photo messages implying ongoing financial support for materiel. New update: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of RF soldiers in a trench, which implies material sustainment for equipment and fortifications. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• Tactical Level (RF): Effective tactical C2 for recon/strike missions, coordinated Kyiv assaults, drone ops, special forces, ground offensives on Pokrovsk, and claimed Chasiv Yar liberation. MoD Russia shares a video on the liberation of Koptevo and Novotoretskoye by Aleksandr Bushmelev, suggesting effective tactical command and control for ground operations. MoD Russia shares a video of a soldier discussing the coordination of troop movements and supplies, indicating tactical C2 effectiveness in logistics. Colonelcassad shares video of FPV drone operated by 144th MSD destroying a 155mm Polish AHS Krab. ASTRA reports on the disappearance of two battalion commanders after being summoned by superiors, suggesting potential C2 issues or purges within RF forces. New update: Операция Z shares new video of Chasiv Yar with soldiers claiming RF flags raised, implying successful tactical C2 for territorial gains. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video titled "Дякуємо таким московитам за те, що вони економлять наше БК і при цьому створюють яскраві кадри" showing UA drone footage of RF soldiers in a trench system, confirming effective tactical C2 for maintaining positions despite UA observation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Operational/Strategic Level (UA): Ongoing governmental C2 over anti-corruption/economic security. Effective info ops C2. Strong military C2 over force generation/readiness. Adaptable C2 in personnel management and diplomatic efforts. PPO responses and public warnings indicate effective C2 of air defense/public communication. General Staff of AFU working meetings to enhance unit capabilities. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports successful internal anti-corruption. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА share Klimenko's report. Оперативний ЗСУ and Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" show internal political dissent. STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, ASTRA confirm Rada adopted NABU/SAP bill. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна confirm Rada increased defense spending. Zelenskiy / Official speaks with new Polish President. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports exposing falsified pesticide production. РБК-Україна shares fundraising video for evacuation vehicle repair. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on heating season prep. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Verkhovna Rada supported bill reinforcing education right for servicemen. Zelenskiy / Official signs laws for anti-corruption/defense financing. Оперативний ЗСУ reports UA servicemen will receive additional 15 days vacation. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports on "Country of Engineers." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights government/civilian efforts in preserving cultural heritage, showing effective national cohesion C2. Оперативний ЗСУ provides details on additional 15 days of vacation for servicemen, highlighting effective implementation of policies. Президентська бригада ЗСУ video demonstrates effective unit-level C2 in training and training and operations. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 explicitly thanks Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko for decisive actions, indicating effective inter-agency coordination. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's report on Pokrovsk, demonstrating clear military leadership and strategic communication. РБК-Україна reports on accusations against MP Labazyuk, indicating an ongoing ability to address internal issues at a high level. Air raid alert in Kyiv ended, demonstrating effective PPO C2. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos confirming the Verkhovna Rada adopted the law on mandatory annual leave for servicemen. Zelenskiy / Official delivers a daily address discussing various efforts. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports that the "18-24" program has been expanded, allowing young volunteers to study in higher education institutions without leaving service, indicating effective C2 in military education and recruitment. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides an operational update as of 22:00 (19:00Z) on July 31, 2025, demonstrating centralized command and control over battlefield reporting. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Ukraine is convening an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council due to a new wave of terror from Russia, according to FM Sybiha, demonstrating effective diplomatic C2. New update: РБК-Україна shares map of Ukraine's air raid alarms, demonstrating effective public communication and C2 of alerts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Operational/Strategic Level (RF): Centralized strategic C2 over internal information, social policies, international narratives, societal militarization. Effective C2 over info ops to exploit Western vulnerabilities. Pragmatic adaptation to maintain critical space infrastructure. Medvedev's rapid response to Trump, and State Duma legislation illustrate centralized control. TASS reports Syrian Foreign Minister's statement. TASS reports Belousov congratulating VDV units. Colonelcassad shares videos of couple sentencing. TASS reports Putin's meeting with Laotian President. TASS reports Patrushev claims Western countries discussing piracy. ТАСС reports Patrushev's statement that NATO is turning Baltic into zone of instability. TASS reports Bank of Russia setting mortgage limits. Colonelcassad shares Patrushev's full statement. TASS reports Putin signed law allowing investigators to suspend financial transactions. TASS reports 40 million rubles collected from Tinkov for Deripaska. TASS reports Putin signed law on fines for extremist materials/VPN advertising. TASS reports Belousov met with Syrian Defense Minister. TASS reports Peskov stated BRICS work not oriented against other countries. Новости Москвы reports Putin signed tax collection law. TASS reports Putin ordered high-speed rail development. TASS reports Moldova intends to solve Transnistrian problem only after RF withdrawal. TASS reports Estonia does not plan to recognize Palestine. TASS reports Peskov stated BRICS work not oriented against other countries. TASS reports Medvedev stating Russia highly values Nicaragua's decision. TASS reports Hungary does not plan to recognize Palestine. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Laotian President Thongloun Sisoulith gifted two elephants to Putin, highlighting a symbolic diplomatic gesture. TASS and MoD Russia report Belousov's talks with Laotian Defence Minister Khamlieng Outhakaisone, discussing military-technical cooperation and joint exercises, indicating strengthened military ties. TASS reports RF and Laos signed seven documents, including a roadmap for nuclear cooperation, further solidifying the relationship. TASS reports Putin received Syrian Foreign Minister in the Kremlin, reaffirming the alliance. Два майора reports Poland "secretly" testing American autonomous boats for Baltic special operations, highlighting Western military cooperation in RF's near abroad. Alex Parker Returns reiterates Nicaragua's recognition of annexed Ukrainian territories, promoting diplomatic success for RF. TASS reports RF embassy in Sweden accused Swedish media of using Ukrainian children for fake accusations against Russia, indicating diplomatic efforts to counter negative narratives. TASS reports Rubio stating US held contacts with Russian representatives to achieve understanding on peace in Ukraine, indicating a diplomatic push from US. ТАСС reports Roscosmos discussing ISS, Moon, and deep space cooperation with US counterpart, showing continued space diplomacy. TASS reports migrants working by government quota will not need to pass history or Russian language tests, indicating an adaptive measure to facilitate foreign labor. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Peskov's statement on Putin's upcoming important address, suggesting a centralized response to international events. РБК-Україна similarly reports Putin's important statement. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports US Secretary of State Rubio stated on Fox Radio that the US held talks with Russians regarding stopping the war in Ukraine, but saw no progress. This indicates a lack of diplomatic breakthrough for RF. Colonelcassad reports 95% of ships refuse to moor at Eilat port, highlighting potential international economic pressure or regional instability. Старше Эдды comments on Trump's shifting moods regarding tariffs. ТАСС reports departmental security will be supplied with combat small arms to repel drone attacks, a law signed by Putin, indicating adaptation to new threats. ASTRA reports on the appointment of Boris Dobrodeev as head of "Lesta" gaming studio, a strategic move to control cultural influence within RF. STERNENKO reports Putin's important statement, then withdrawal. New update: ТАСС reports "Владимир Путин 31 июля подписал 85 законов, подсчитал ТАСС," indicating extensive centralized legislative control. Alex Parker Returns shares new photo message about a judge and migrants, indicating focus on internal control of social narratives. Kotsnews shares photo "Азертадж учит ТАСС географии" which might be related to RF control of information accuracy. Рыбарь shares a photo message "📝О чём говорит Рыбарь📝" which is a form of narrative control. TASS shares photo message of Lavrov's article stating EU and NATO distort facts to rewrite history, indicating a renewed propaganda push against Western narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - noting medium confidence on Nicaragua claim)

**3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Defensive Posture: UA forces maintaining defensive posture in Kharkiv/Zaporizhzhia. UA Air Defense active against UAVs/missiles. UA forces continue to hold main defensive line in Chasiv Yar, despite RF claims. New 16th Army Corps for Kharkiv defense. Oleg Synyehubov reports over 205 hectares of Kharkiv Oblast demined. Сили оборони Півдня України explicitly refutes RF claims of Kamianske capture. DeepState reports RF has not occupied Chasiv Yar. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports Nikopolshchyna experienced a dozen enemy attacks with FPV drones and artillery. Николаевский Ванёк video further refutes RF Chasiv Yar claims, showing UA drone strikes against RF personnel. STERNENKO video shows UA forces effectively engaging a Russian vehicle in the Siversk direction, demonstrating active defense. РБК-Україна provides video of Ukrainian Presidential Brigade successfully downing an Iskander-K missile heading towards Kyiv, demonstrating continued air defense effectiveness. РБК-Україна reports Zelensky confirming that every Russian attempt to advance in Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar is being repelled. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video from 24th Mechanized Brigade debunking Russian claims about Chasiv Yar. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Ukrainian SSO operators clearing a settlement in Kursk Oblast. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's report on holding positions and destroying DRGs in Pokrovsk direction. РБК-Україна features "Kraken" unit's operations, indicating active defensive and offensive actions. Air raid alerts ended in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia, indicating successful PPO operations or the end of RF strikes. This highlights effective defensive posture of air defenses. Operatyvnyi ZSU shares video from "Donbas" battalion (18th NGU Brigade) providing additional footage from Chasiv Yar, directly refuting RF "TikToker" claims of capture. This demonstrates UA's active defense and counter-propaganda in the Chasiv Yar direction. Zelenskiy / Official reports Syrskyi stating UA units are holding all positions in the Pokrovsk sector. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares video of drone footage from the 42nd Mechanized Brigade depicting combat scenarios, explosions, and reconnaissance. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports sappers of the 47th Separate Engineer Brigade are actively installing "egoza" spiral barriers in Kharkiv and Donetsk. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides an operational update as of 22:00 (19:00Z) on July 31, 2025, detailing ongoing heavy defensive combat, particularly on the Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar directions. New update: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video titled "Дякуємо таким московитам за те, що вони економлять наше БК і при цьому створюють яскраві кадри" showing UA drone footage of RF soldiers in a trench system, indicating successful UA reconnaissance and observation capabilities, contributing to defensive posture. РБК-Україна shares map of Ukraine's air raid alarms, confirming nationwide alerts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України warns of threats to Cherkasy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Offensive Operations: "Predator" Brigade recruitment. Film "Road of Death" on GUR MO op. Successful FPV drone strikes by 66th Mech Brigade. Engineering troops cleared nearly 3,000 hectares of mines. 5 RF recon UAVs shot down. UA drone targeted RF SA-13, 2S1 Gvozdika. "BULAVA" unit used drone with grenade launcher. STERNENKO reports 10,000 UAH for "Shahedorez." New 16th Army Corps for Kharkiv. 10th OGShBr repelled assault, destroyed 13 motorcycles. UA seeking excavators. PPO active. 15 enemy drones destroyed in Dnipropetrovsk. General Staff reports approx. 1070 RF personnel losses. Silo oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny operational update. 47th Mech Brigade BZVP. UA holding defensive line in Chasiv Yar. Air Force reports enemy tactical aviation in northeastern direction. STERNENKO confirms 174 targets intercepted by "Shahedorez." 12th Azov Brigade videos show elimination of occupiers. High intercepts (291/317 targets). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows FPV drone strike and drone-aided rescue. SBU confirmed FSB agent detained. Oleg Synyehubov reports over 205 hectares demined. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports NGU "Khartia" Brigade destroyed Russian ground robotic complex. STERNENKO reports 315 FPV drones purchased. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno shows 93rd Mech Brigade eliminating occupiers. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" reports significant number of demobilized RF officers. Сили оборони Півдня України refutes RF Kamianske claims. Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU/BEB exposed corruption in drone procurement. STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, ASTRA confirm Rada adopted NABU/SAP bill. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна confirm Rada increased defense spending. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports exposing falsified pesticide production. Оперативний ЗСУ shares FPV drone strike video. БУТУТОВ ПЛЮС reports liquidation of RF drone operator. STERNENKO shares video of 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade destroying enemy transport. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports detention of collaborator deputy and former state employee. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Verkhovna Rada supported education bill. Zelenskiy / Official signs laws for anti-corruption/defense financing. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares video of "Khartia" destroying Russian ground robotic complex. Оперативний ЗСУ reports additional 15 days vacation. Оперативний ЗСУ announces "Country of Engineers" initiative. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports illegal seizure of 36.5 hectares in Synevyr National Nature Park. STERNENKO shares video of Phoenix unit hitting Russian transport. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС shares video of wounded RF soldier after mortar strike. РБК-Україна reports US statement on ceasefire by August 8th. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of 413th Battalion "Raid" operators disabling enemy Buk-M1, GAZ Tigr, truck, EW equipment, and potentially a 2S1 Gvozdika, showcasing successful counter-battery/EW targeting. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of 63rd Brigade tank operators successfully engaging occupiers. Николаевский Ванёк shares drone footage of UA forces engaging RF personnel and destroying vehicles near Chasiv Yar, explicitly countering RF claims of control. STERNENKO shares video of SPEAR Group B 118th Territorial Defense Brigade destroying a Russian vehicle (with cage-like structure) in Siversk direction, indicating successful defensive action. STERNENKO shares video of SUNSTRIKE unit destroying two RF drones, confirming continued successful counter-drone operations. РБК-Україна video confirms successful interception of Iskander-K missile. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video from 24th Mechanized Brigade showing tactical operations and enemy losses in Chasiv Yar. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Ukrainian SSO operators clearing a settlement in Kursk Oblast. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares a photo message about support for comrades, implying ongoing aid to Ukrainian servicemen. РБК-Україна shares a video highlighting the "Kraken" unit's successes in destroying DRGs and performing assault tasks. STERNENKO shares video of "Apache" FPV drone group conducting reconnaissance and strike operations, destroying a dilapidated structure and targeting a vehicle. This further indicates UA's continued and effective use of FPV drones. Operatyvnyi ZSU shares video from "Donbas" battalion (18th NGU Brigade) providing additional footage from Chasiv Yar, directly refuting RF "TikToker" claims of capture, which is a key counter-propaganda success. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos confirming the Verkhovna Rada adopted the law on mandatory annual leave for servicemen, which is a success in military welfare. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares video of drone footage from the 42nd Mechanized Brigade depicting combat scenarios, explosions, and reconnaissance, captioned "Continuing to destroy the enemy in Kharkiv Oblast." ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports sappers of the 47th Separate Engineer Brigade are actively installing "egoza" spiral barriers in Kharkiv and Donetsk. Оперативний ЗСУ reports US Senate Committee supported $800M for Ukraine and $225M for Baltic states. STERNENKO confirms US Senate Committee approved funding for Ukraine and Baltic states. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of HIMARS strike on North Korean M-1978 "Koksan" self-propelled artillery, with ammunition detonation confirmed by 14th Separate UAV Regiment. New update: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video titled "Дякуємо таким московитам за те, що вони економлять наше БК і при цьому створюють яскраві кадри" showing UA drone footage of RF soldiers in a trench, confirming successful UA reconnaissance and offensive capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Readiness: Recruitment campaigns, new policies for 25-year-old conscripts. General Staff's emphasis on training quality, Syrisky's directives for underground training and 51-day BZVP. Agreements with US on weapons. 47th Mechanized Brigade promoting BZVP. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports on changes to military registration for 25-year-old medical/pharmaceutical men. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos of youth fire training. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ and Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України share photos of 82nd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade training communication. Оперативний ЗСУ reports additional 15 days vacation for servicemen. Оперативний ЗСУ provides details on additional 15 days of vacation for servicemen, indicating readiness to implement new policies. Президентська бригада ЗСУ video emphasizes transformation of civilians into military personnel through training and discipline. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photo messages demonstrating ongoing training and readiness through various July events, including medical and tactical training. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos confirming the Verkhovna Rada adopted the law on mandatory annual leave for servicemen, reinforcing readiness through improved welfare. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports that the "18-24" program has been expanded, allowing young volunteers to study in higher education institutions without leaving service, indicating readiness to integrate education with service. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports sappers of the 47th Separate Engineer Brigade are actively installing "egoza" spiral barriers in Kharkiv and Donetsk, demonstrating readiness to fortify positions. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides an operational update as of 22:00 (19:00Z) on July 31, 2025, which details defensive readiness and operational planning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:
  • Successes: GUR MO's evidence of child abductions. 47th Mech Brigade repelled major RF mechanized assault, destroying 8 MBTs and 14 IFVs/APCs. 5 RF recon UAVs shot down. UA drone targeted RF SA-13, 2S1 Gvozdika. President Zelensky highlighted successful GUR ops. Creation of 16th Army Corps. 10th OGShBr repelled RF assault, destroying 13 motorcycles. PPO successfully engaging UAVs/some missiles. Signing of airspace infrastructure restoration memorandum. General Staff reports approx. 1070 RF personnel losses. Kryvyi Rih controlled. Drone strike on Penza Radio Plant (RF). Video footage shows successful targeting of RF soldier on Pokrovsk axis. STERNENKO confirms 174 targets intercepted by "Shahedorez." 12th Azov Brigade videos show effective elimination of occupiers. High intercepts (291/317 targets). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows successful FPV drone strike and drone-aided rescue. SBU confirmed FSB agent detained. Oleg Synyehubov reports over 205 hectares demined. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports NGU "Khartia" Brigade destroyed Russian ground robotic complex. STERNENKO reports 315 FPV drones purchased. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno shows 93rd Mech Brigade eliminating occupiers. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" reports significant number of demobilized RF officers. Сили оборони Півдня України refutes RF Kamianske claims. Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU/BEB exposed corruption in drone procurement. STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, ASTRA confirm Rada adopted NABU/SAP bill. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна confirm Rada increased defense spending. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports exposing falsified pesticide production. Оперативний ЗСУ shares FPV drone strike video. БУТУТОВ ПЛЮС reports liquidation of RF drone operator. STERNENKO shares video of 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade destroying enemy transport. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports detention of collaborator deputy and former state employee. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Verkhovna Rada supported education bill. Zelenskiy / Official signs laws for anti-corruption/defense financing. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares video of "Khartia" destroying Russian ground robotic complex. Оперативний ЗСУ reports additional 15 days vacation. Оперативний ЗСУ announces "Country of Engineers" initiative. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports illegal seizure of 36.5 hectares in Synevyr National Nature Park. STERNENKO shares video of Phoenix unit hitting Russian transport. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС shares video of wounded RF soldier after mortar strike. РБК-Україна reports US statement on ceasefire by August 8th. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of 413th Battalion "Raid" operators disabling enemy Buk-M1, GAZ Tigr, truck, EW equipment, and potentially a 2S1 Gvozdika, showcasing successful counter-battery/EW targeting. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of 63rd Brigade tank operators successfully engaging occupiers. Николаевский Ванёк shares drone footage of UA forces engaging RF personnel and destroying vehicles near Chasiv Yar, explicitly countering RF claims of control. STERNENKO shares video of SPEAR Group B 118th Territorial Defense Brigade destroying a Russian vehicle (with cage-like structure) in Siversk direction, indicating successful defensive action. STERNENKO shares video of SUNSTRIKE unit destroying two RF drones, confirming continued successful counter-drone operations. РБК-Україна video confirms successful interception of Iskander-K missile. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video from 24th Mechanized Brigade showing tactical operations and enemy losses in Chasiv Yar. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Ukrainian SSO operators clearing a settlement in Kursk Oblast. РБК-Україна shares a video highlighting the "Kraken" unit's successes in destroying DRGs and performing assault tasks. STERNENKO shares video of "Apache" FPV drone group conducting reconnaissance and strike operations, destroying a dilapidated structure and targeting a vehicle. This indicates continued successful offensive operations by UA forces using drones. Operatyvnyi ZSU shares video from "Donbas" battalion (18th NGU Brigade) providing additional footage from Chasiv Yar, directly refuting RF "TikToker" claims of capture, which is a key counter-propaganda success. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos confirming the Verkhovna Rada adopted the law on mandatory annual leave for servicemen, which is a success in military welfare. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares video of drone footage from the 42nd Mechanized Brigade depicting combat scenarios, explosions, and reconnaissance, captioned "Continuing to destroy the enemy in Kharkiv Oblast." ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports sappers of the 47th Separate Engineer Brigade are actively installing "egoza" spiral barriers in Kharkiv and Donetsk. Оперативний ЗСУ reports US Senate Committee supported $800M for Ukraine and $225M for Baltic states. STERNENKO confirms US Senate Committee approved funding for Ukraine and Baltic states. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of HIMARS strike on North Korean M-1978 "Koksan" self-propelled artillery, with ammunition detonation confirmed by 14th Separate UAV Regiment. New update: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video titled "Дякуємо таким московитам за те, що вони економлять наше БК і при цьому створюють яскраві кадри" showing UA drone footage of RF soldiers in a trench, confirming successful UA reconnaissance and offensive capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Setbacks: Continued KAB/missile strikes (Vasyshcheve, Pavlohrad, Kyiv - 16 fatalities, 159 injured, 12 children, 124 casualties total) and ground advancements by RF on Kharkiv/Pokrovsk axes. RF claims of deep penetration into Pokrovsk and complete liberation of Chasiv Yar (unconfirmed). UA 55th Separate Artillery Brigade facing shortages. Deployment of Shipovnik-Aero EW system. Reduced water supply to four cities in Donetsk. Kyiv experienced widespread impacts. Damage to Kyiv railway infrastructure. Two casualties in Zaporizhzhia region. Rubezh NGU Brigade reports destroyed property/equipment. Loss of second battalion commander in 5 days. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports internal corruption in quadcopter procurement. Zelenskiy / Official reports 16 killed and 43 wounded from prison bombing in Zaporizhzhia. РБК-Україна reports MP Dmytro Kostiuk leaving faction. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports enemy DRGs operating deep in Pokrovsk. Strike on Kramatorsk center, destroying residential building, signifies setback. DeepState reports occupation of Kam'yans'ke. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports almost 700 hectares of grain destroyed by fires. Fighterbomber reports two RF pilots/crew killed. Два майора reports civilian injured by UA drone attack in Bryansk. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports a dozen enemy attacks on Nikopolshchyna, causing damage to settlements. WarGonzo reports Ukrainian UAV struck firefighters in Luhansk, injuring five. ТАСС reports three fatalities, including a child, from an приступ on a car in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, citing Balitsky. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports 3 fatalities in Polohivskyi district after an alleged Ukrainian attack on a civilian vehicle. This, if confirmed, would be a setback (though RF propaganda likely). ASTRA reports a man died after shelling in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, which highlights the continued civilian casualties in border regions. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing a Russian soldier with a severe facial injury on the Southern front, indicating a setback for RF personnel. Mash на Донбассе reports a school collapsed in Makeevka. New update: НгП раZVедка shares video "⚠️Уничтожение моста. Константиновка." showing a direct strike on a road/bridge, indicating a successful RF strike on UA infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Critical Needs: Shortages in trained personnel/technical means for 55th Separate Artillery Brigade. Continuous demand for military personnel. Immediate resupply of ATGM systems and FPV drones to Avdiivka axis. Urgent need for more air defense assets (interceptors for Shahed, reactive drones, ballistic/cruise missiles), especially given Kyiv attack. Urgent need for excavators. Rubezh NGU Brigade fundraising. STERNENKO reports 315 FPV drones purchased through donations. STERNENKO reports donations stable but needs grown due to combat intensity. РБК-Україна shares fundraising video for evacuation vehicle repair. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares video of RF 7th Division appealing for drones/Starlink (exploitable RF need). Оперативний ЗСУ announces "Country of Engineers" initiative. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) and Олександр Вілкул share photo messages regarding military equipment transfer. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС emphasizes priority of drone units to reduce infantry losses, highlighting a critical resource need. Военкор Котенок's appeal for Mavic and Pro drones for VDV forces, indicates a specific critical equipment need that UA can exploit or target. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares a photo message about support for comrades, implying ongoing need for aid to Ukrainian servicemen. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 makes a direct appeal for drone components and transmitters for reconnaissance on the Kherson front, indicating ongoing materiel needs for UA forces. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video appealing for drones and Starlink from the 7th Division in Zaporizhzhia direction, highlighting critical equipment needs for RF personnel. Военкор Котенок shares a video discussing the need for mobilization due to personnel shortages and the increased use of drones, indicating their need for more personnel. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares photo messages implying ongoing financial support for materiel. Два майора shares a video appealing for donations for the Sumy direction, featuring three RF military personnel, indicating personnel needs and resource constraints for RF. New update: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares new photos captioned "Там же, Севастополь" showing waste/refuse, potentially implying resource constraints or mismanagement in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Financial Aid: NABU/SAP bill vote crucial for EU financial aid (now confirmed adopted). Shmyhal warned of salary arrears (now addressed by Rada increasing defense spending). Continued need for external military aid (US agreements). US senators proposing European-funded weapon fund. STERNENKO reports US Treasury sanctions on Iran. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelensky's address at "Helsinki+50" conference. Zelenskiy / Official advocates for international support. Zelenskiy / Official's call with new Polish President. Военкор Котенок reports Azerbaijan's support. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Verkhovna Rada supported education bill. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Germany approved record military aid. РБК-Україна reports no EU funding freeze. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Indian oil refineries suspending purchases of Russian oil. DeepState reports EU preparing massive defense program of €127 billion. РБК-Україна reports US statement at UN Security Council calling for ceasefire by August 8th, indicating continued international diplomatic pressure on RF. STERNENKO reports "Trump wants to sign an agreement to end the war by August 8th, suggesting international pressure for a resolution." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms EU will not freeze financial support for Ukraine after NABU and SAP independence restoration. STERNENKO confirms Indian state-owned oil refineries temporarily suspended purchases of Russian oil, citing Reuters. ASTRA confirms India refused to buy Russian oil after Trump's threats. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Rubio stated US had full conversation with RF this week on stopping the war, with no progress, indicating continued US diplomatic engagement without concessions. STERNENKO confirms Rubio's statements on talks with RF without results. Операция Z similarly reports Rubio's statements. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports US Secretary of State Rubio stated on Fox Radio that the US held talks with Russians regarding stopping the war in Ukraine, but saw no progress. This indicates continued US diplomatic engagement on Ukraine's behalf. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports Indian oil refineries are stopping purchases of Russian oil, citing Reuters. This is a significant blow to RF's financial resources and a gain for Ukraine's international support efforts. Alex Parker Returns relays a White House statement that Trump has achieved effectiveness in one peace agreement or ceasefire per month, and deserves the Nobel Peace Prize, signaling a focus on peace negotiations. Оперативний ЗСУ reports US Senate Committee supported $800M for Ukraine and $225M for Baltic states. STERNENKO confirms US Senate Committee approved funding for Ukraine and Baltic states. РБК-Україна provides a photo message discussing Trump's potential punishment of India over Russian oil and whether sanctions will stop the war in Ukraine, highlighting continued international pressure and support. New update: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Donald Trump talking about sanctions against Russia, confirming the ongoing financial pressure on RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Anti-Corruption Measures: Continued delay in appointing BEB director. Операция Z propagates claims of declining US interest. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports successful internal anti-corruption measures. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports corruption in quadcopter procurement. Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU/BEB exposed chief financier stealing funds. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports exposing falsified pesticide production, collaborator deputy, and former state employee. Zelenskiy / Official signs law guaranteeing independent operation of anti-corruption bodies. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports illegal seizure of 36.5 hectares protected lands. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 explicitly thanks Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko for decisive actions, indicating continued commitment to anti-corruption. Олександр Вілкул provides a briefing summarizing the situation, including allocation of funds for social support and housing reconstruction. РБК-Україна reports on accusations against MP Labazyuk, indicating ongoing efforts to combat corruption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Disinformation: RF blames UA for civilian casualties, false flag incidents, portrays UA losses. Amplifies internal UA issues, discredits leadership. Openly celebrates Kyiv attacks, mocks air defenses. Exaggerates territorial gains (Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar). Distributes videos of alleged torture. Reinforcing Chasiv Yar claims with flag-raising videos. TASS reports Kymakovsky's claim of Kostiantynivka defense collapse. Unverified claim of US nuclear weapons in UK. TASS attributes Penza "Air Danger" to UA UAVs. Medvedev's comments ("Dead Hand") are IO. ARCHENGEL SPETSNAZ spreads unverified claims about Mexican cartel members in UA forces. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition frames Chasiv Yar as decisive. Alex Parker Returns amplifies this, and focuses on Trump's statements. ТАСС promotes conviction of couple for collecting military data. Alex Parker Returns comments on Crocus attack. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian media publishing genocidal headline. Alex Parker Returns celebrates harm to UA veteran. Операция Z portrays internal UA political conflicts as "circus." Colonelcassad frames NABU/SAP vote as Western-imposed. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on liquidation of RF drone operator Daria Trofimova. Colonelcassad shares video of detained Crimean man, framing pro-UA views as "Nazi slogans." БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides photo of Russian propaganda calling for war crimes/genocide. Операция Z reports on teenager arrested for arsons. Операция Z claims Nicaragua officially recognized new territories. Janus Putkonen shares Zaluzhny "Vogue model" photo. Операция Z shares "Russian Gerans rip AFU to shreds." Colonelcassad immediately attributes the Aeroflot cyberattack to Western-supported Ukrainian hackers, framing it as foreign aggression. Alex Parker Returns continues to spread racist and divisive narratives related to the Crocus attack, exploiting ethnic stereotypes. Рыбарь propagates xenophobic narratives about "ethnic occupation of markets" by migrants, linking them to crime and illicit capital outflow, aiming to stir internal social unrest and justify discriminatory policies. Два майора's video on "SVO fighters won't give bad advice" suggests a propaganda effort to enhance trust in military personnel and their recommendations, possibly related to recruitment or internal compliance. Военкор Котенок reports on RF MoD figures for Ukrainian losses in Chasiv Yar, reinforcing RF claims of success. ТАСС reports MVD has put Sota journalists on wanted list, suppressing independent media. TASS reports Putin signed law allowing families of foreigners fighting for RF to apply for citizenship, promoting foreign fighter recruitment. Alex Parker Returns highlights internal social tensions through a pensioner's fine, attempting to stir discontent. TASS reports Putin signed law increasing fines for parents, showcasing state control over social narratives. STERNENKO's response to Trump's proposal, with aggressive rhetoric against Putin/Russia, indicates a reciprocal adaptation in online information warfare. Старше Эдды continues aggressive rhetoric about Chasiv Yar. Басурин о главном similarly reinforces aggressive narratives. Alex Parker Returns claims "Parker's magic button continues to work," a self-aggrandizing claim intended to project power and control. Операция Z emphasizes new law introducing fines for extremist searches, demonstrating an intent to control information access and suppress dissent. Басурин о главном uses destroyed church video to blame UA and promote RF's narrative of defending religious sites. TASS reports RF embassy in Sweden accusing Swedish media of using Ukrainian children for fake accusations concerning Ukrainian children, indicating a proactive narrative defense. TASS reports RKN's request to remove Speedtest Ookla, indicating further control over internet tools and information suppression. Alex Parker Returns's image with "Minimal Deposit from 100 rubles" could be interpreted as a low-level financial enticement or advertisement, potentially for recruitment or general support, part of a broad influence campaign. TASS reports Rubio's statement on US-Russia contacts, framing RF as engaging in peace talks. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС shares a propaganda video of a man in military-style beret, highlighting RF's use of personality-driven content. «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» shares symbolic propaganda with bears in military contexts. Рыбарь provides a comic strip, "Once upon a time in a tank brigade," which is a soft power propaganda tool. TASS shares Shvydkoy's full comment on the dismantling of the Aivazovsky monument, attempting to control the narrative regarding cultural heritage. Kotsnews shares a poll about Trump, reflecting RF's interest in shaping narratives around Western leadership. Alex Parker Returns comments on a new law blocking films that "discredit traditional values," indicating an intent to impose moral censorship and control information. Два майора's animated propaganda using anthropomorphic cats in military settings, indicating a continued use of AI/neural networks for propaganda. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report Peskov's statement on Putin's upcoming address, anticipating a major propaganda release. ASTRA reports on the death of Derk Sauer, founder of "Vedomosti" and director of "Dozhd". While not directly military, this indicates a capability to report on the internal media landscape of Russia and its associated personnel. ASTRA also reports a search of the Lipetsk KPRF premises, which RF media may use to frame internal political control measures. Colonelcassad shares a video documenting military operations, including alleged successes against Ukrainian forces, serving as a propaganda tool. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message criticizing slow progress, which could be part of an internal narrative management or frustration sharing. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video featuring a White House press secretary stating Trump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize for his peace efforts, indicating RF's intent to promote a specific narrative about international diplomacy. Alex Parker Returns shares a video capturing multiple explosions in Kyiv at night, with the caption mocking Ukrainian air defenses, demonstrating a psychological adaptation to spread demoralization. Alex Parker Returns disseminates a White House statement that Trump has achieved effectiveness in one peace agreement or ceasefire per month and deserves the Nobel Peace Prize, confirming RF's intent to amplify narratives favorable to their diplomatic objectives. MoD Russia posts a daily figure photo message. Старше Эдды comments on Trump's volatile mood, which is an attempt to shape narratives. ТАСС reports Putin signed a law refusing film distribution licenses for discrediting traditional values. Операция Z reports that Ukraine is building "dragon's teeth." Новости Москвы shares a video about a mother hitting her child in the Moscow region. This appears to be RF propaganda focused on alleged social decay in Ukraine, despite the content suggesting it is within Russia. Операция Z claims RF launched as many drones in July as the whole of last year, a significant propaganda effort to highlight scale and impact. ASTRA reports on the appointment of Boris Добродеев as head of "Lesta" gaming studio, a strategic move by RF to control cultural influence within Russia. Операция Z claims "The surrender of Pokrovsk is a matter of time," citing The Telegraph, highlighting a new RF information operation to demoralize UA and signal impending success. STERNENKO reports Putin's important statement, then withdrawal. Военкор Котенок shares aerial photos of "liberated" Chasiv Yar, reinforcing RF claims of control and serving as propaganda. ASTRA shares photos depicting widespread destruction in Chasiv Yar after "liberation," reinforcing RF claims of control. Рыбарь provides a summary of July 31st, a form of information operation to control daily narratives. New updates: Операция Z shares new photos and video claiming Chasiv Yar capture, reinforcing propaganda. Alex Parker Returns shares new photo message about a judge and migrants, continuing to highlight internal social tensions. Kotsnews shares photo "Азертадж учит ТАСС географии" to undermine TASS's credibility. Рыбарь shares new photo message "📝О чём говорит Рыбарь📝" for narrative control. ТАСС reports Alexander Maximtsev's claim of 95% interception of enemy air attacks, a highly exaggerated propaganda claim. TASS shares photo message of Lavrov's article stating EU and NATO distort facts to rewrite history, indicating a renewed propaganda push against Western narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - noting medium confidence on Nicaragua claim, and recognizing meme nature of some IO)
• UA Counter-Propaganda: GUR MO's evidence of child abductions. Countering negative narratives about mobilization. Transparently addressing corruption. Direct engagement with POW families. Reporting on RF attacks on civilian infrastructure/humanitarian crises. Klimenko providing real-time updates. Publishing RF losses. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration daily minute of silence. DeepState map contradicting RF Chasiv Yar claims. Zelenskiy's public address and images of destruction will reinforce outrage. "Two walls rule" highlights proactive adaptation. STERNENKO's call to action shows channeling negative sentiment. KMA's direct reporting reflects deep impact. STERNENKO's post showing damaged Kyiv mosque. РБК-Україна reporting refutation of Chasiv Yar capture. Сили Оборони Півдya Ukraine's refutation of Kamianske capture. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports SBU drones hit Penza plant. Zelenskiy / Official directly reports on Zaporizhzhia prison bombing. Zelenskiy / Official delivers strong speech advocating for regime change/asset confiscation. STERNENKO attributes NABU/SAP success to public pressure. РБК-Україна reports NABU/SAP law passed. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and РБК-Україна share video of girl surviving attack. DeepState directly refutes RF claims on Chasiv Yar. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ignat's statement refuting fakes on reactive Shaheds. КМВА announcing August 1st day of mourning. РБК-Україна reports US statement at UN Security Council calling for ceasefire by August 8th, framing it as international pressure on RF. STERNENKO reports "Trump wants to sign an agreement to end the war by August 8th, suggesting international pressure for a resolution." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights Ukraine's cultural resilience and historical depth through the preservation of antique "Kobzar" books, countering narratives of a non-existent nation. STERNENKO's satirical and aggressive response to Trump's proposal, involving "tariffs on russorez," indicates a robust and direct counter-narrative against perceived Russian interests. Николаевский Ванёк directly debunks RF fakes about Chasiv Yar, providing visual evidence to counter propaganda. РБК-Україна shares expert analysis on the limitations of RF's ability to fully transition to reactive Shaheds to counter RF claims of superior drone capabilities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights EU's continued financial support after NABU/SAP independence, countering narratives of Western waning interest. РБК-Україна's report on RF stripping citizenship from political opponents, with the question "Will Ukrainians be next?" serves as counter-propaganda, highlighting RF's authoritarianism and potential threat to Ukrainian citizens in Russia. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 highlights journalistic neutrality and transparency in reporting on regional events, countering RF's opaque information practices. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publicly thanks Prosecutor General for decisive actions, promoting accountability. РБК-Україна reports police senior lieutenant Liliya Stepanchuk killed, highlighting the human cost of the conflict. РБК-Україна reports Sumy joining the day of mourning, emphasizing nationwide solidarity. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares shocking footage of RF strikes on Kyiv, aiming to provoke outrage and international condemnation. РБК-Україна features "Kraken" unit's operations, aiming to boost morale and highlight UA capabilities. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's report, providing transparent information on the front lines. РБК-Україна reports on accusations against MP Labazyuk, demonstrating UA's commitment to internal transparency. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Rubio's statements on US-RF talks, framing it as diplomatic engagement rather than progress. STERNENKO confirms Rubio's statements, ensuring consistency of information. Оперативний ЗСУ provides a predictive analysis of Putin's upcoming speech, framing it as a predictable propaganda event. Operatyvnyi ZSU shares new video from "Donbas" battalion (18th NGU Brigade) providing additional footage from Chasiv Yar, directly refuting RF "TikToker" claims of capture, which is a key counter-propaganda success. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm the updated casualty figures in Kyiv, showing continued transparency in reporting. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ confirms the Rada's decision on mandatory leave, demonstrating transparency in policy. Zelenskiy / Official delivers a daily address, refuting Russian disinformation regarding Chasiiv Yar. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a photo message of a memorial for Matvii Marchenko, a 6-year-old killed in the Kyiv attack, leveraging civilian casualties to counter RF narratives and elicit international sympathy. ASTRA shares a photo message of Ukrainian emergency service personnel operating at a disaster site, demonstrating resilience and professionalism. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video of HIMARS strike, demonstrating successful UA military action against RF targets. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Ukraine is convening an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council due to a new wave of terror from Russia, according to FM Sybiha, actively countering RF aggression on the diplomatic front. New updates: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Donald Trump's statements, which UA can use to highlight US support or pressure on Russia. РБК-Україна shares video of Trump's sanctions statement, which UA can use to highlight continued international pressure on Russia. РБК-Україна shares map of Ukraine's air raid alarms, confirming widespread alerts as a counter-propaganda measure to ensure public awareness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukrainian Public Sentiment: Morale impacted by strikes. Current high casualty count (16 dead, 159 injured, 12 children in Kyiv) will severely test morale, increase demands for air defense. Public support for recruitment/fundraising strong. Protests for NABU/SAP independence indicate desire for internal reform. Focus on missing persons in Kyiv will impact morale. Zelenskiy's address will reinforce outrage. "Two walls rule" highlights proactive adaptation. STERNENKO's call to action shows channeling negative sentiment. KMA's direct reporting reflects deep impact. STERNENKO's post on damaged Kyiv mosque will fuel outrage. STERNENKO reports donations stable but needs grown. РБК-Україна shares videos/photos of protests for NABU/SAP. Координаційний штаб meeting with families. РБК-Україна fundraising video for evacuation vehicle repair. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS photos of Kyiv rescue. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 thanks Ukrainian Armed Forces. РБК-Україна reports Kyiv declares tomorrow, August 1st, a day of mourning. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS's content on preserving cultural heritage likely boosts national morale and unity. STERNENKO's direct and aggressive response to Trump's proposal indicates high public sentiment against any perceived concessions to Russia. Президентська бригада ЗСУ video emphasizes transformation of civilians into military personnel, boosting morale and readiness. Рыбарь reports on "forgotten settlers" (переселенцы), indicating ongoing challenges for displaced populations and their impact on public sentiment. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 photo messages emphasize community events and positive news, aiming to boost local morale. РБК-Україна reports police senior lieutenant Liliya Stepanchuk killed, impacting public sentiment and sense of security. РБК-Україна reports Sumy joining the day of mourning, indicating nationwide emotional response. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares shocking footage of RF strikes on Kyiv, likely increasing public outrage. KMA's report on thousands of Kyiv residents seeking assistance after each mass attack underscores the severe impact on civilian morale. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm the updated casualty figures in Kyiv, which will continue to impact public sentiment. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares photo messages with thank you notes from anonymous donors, implying public support and positive morale. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a photo message of a memorial for Matvii Marchenko, a 6-year-old killed in the Kyiv attack, which will significantly impact public sentiment. New update: РБК-Україна shares map of Ukraine's air raid alarms, which will impact civilian morale due to heightened threat perception. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian Public Sentiment: RF government controlling discourse. Concerns about social issues (migration, forced returns, security incidents). Aggressive rhetoric from pro-RF channels. Celebration of Kyiv strikes. Appeals for public crypto donations. New laws on foreigners. Sever.Realii's comment "entire community... can be declared extremist" reflects concern over repression. Новости Москвы claims "Russians have become richer." TASS reports car dealerships closing. Новости Москвы reports chicken price increases, Lada Iskra without AC. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on poor treatment of families of liquidated servicemen. Операция Z reports youth detained for arsons. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС reports complete failure of water supply in Donbas. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports mobilized invalid given ruined apartment. ASTRA reports complaints from Penza residents about closed shelters. Colonelcassad shares video of detained Crimean man, used to demonstrate internal crackdown. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники post "Urgent service is dangerous for life." МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports children of deceased serviceman not receiving payments. Fighterbomber expresses grief for two deceased pilots/crew. Mash на Донбассе's "zebra" video, while seemingly innocuous, reflects underlying morale issues by highlighting the absurdities and deprivations of daily life in occupied areas, where even simple pleasures are sought after. Alex Parker Returns's post on the Crocus attack victim's posthumous award likely degrades morale among some segments of the population, fostering distrust and ethnic division. Рыбарь's video on "ethnic occupation of markets" aims to manipulate public sentiment by promoting xenophobia and anti-migrant sentiments, likely to divert attention from internal RF issues and unify support against perceived external threats. ТАСС reports MVD has put Sota journalists on wanted list, indicating state suppression of dissent. Alex Parker Returns highlights internal social friction, such as a pensioner being fined, which can further impact morale. TASS reports Putin signed law increasing fines for parents, which may be perceived as increased state control and pressure on families. Новости Москвы shares a video of pandas at Moscow Zoo, possibly aimed at boosting public morale with positive, apolitical content. Fighterbomber discusses challenges with "gifts" (aid) for soldiers, implying internal frustrations related to logistics/support. WarGonzo photo message shows Deputy Plenipotentiary meeting with volunteers in the SVO zone, signaling efforts to boost morale and recruitment within the SVO zone. TASS reports RF Government approved a bill on mortgage holidays for families with children, which aims to improve public sentiment. TASS reports Putin ordering annual reports on advanced technologies, potentially aimed at boosting public confidence in state efficiency. TASS reports Putin ordering unified state support for large families regardless of income, aimed at boosting social welfare and morale. TASS reports Putin signed a law obliging payments to be made within 30 days to the wounded, volunteers, and family members of those killed in the SVO, indicating state efforts to address public sentiment regarding military personnel support. Игорь Артамонов shares video of children's recreation, likely a morale booster. TASS reports information on migrant children in schools/colleges will be transferred to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, possibly increasing anxieties among migrant communities. Alex Parker Returns reports Putin signed a law blocking films/series that "discredit traditional values." Kotsnews shares a poll about Trump, potentially reflecting public uncertainty or dissent regarding foreign policy. TASS reports migrants working by government quota will not need to pass history or Russian language tests, indicating an effort to reduce friction for migrant workers. Два майора reports detention of a man in Kurgan for calls to extremism. Филолог в засаде discusses reports of unlawful actions and crimes by RF military units and the difficulty of investigations, which could negatively impact public trust in the military and justice system. ASTRA reports a man died after shelling in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, which could impact local public sentiment and morale in border regions. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a request for contact from the 503rd regiment, which could be an attempt to address internal personnel issues or a call for support, impacting morale. Военкор Котенок shares a video discussing the need for mobilization, implying morale challenges related to personnel shortages. Новости Москвы shares a video about a mother hitting her child in the Moscow region, which may hint at underlying social issues. Полиция Хабаровского края shares photos related to police academy graduation and a police radio station, indicating RF's ongoing efforts to maintain a positive public image of law enforcement, which impacts morale. New updates: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares photos captioned "Там же, Севастополь" showing waste/refuse, which could signal poor living conditions or neglect, potentially impacting local morale in occupied areas. Новости Москвы reports "🥵 Жара ночью негативно влияет на качество сна" which might affect general public sentiment if persistent. Alex Parker Returns shares new photos about a judge and migrants, continuing to highlight internal social tensions which could influence public sentiment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Support for Ukraine: GUR MO's evidence of child abductions. NABU/SAP bill vote critical for EU financial aid (now adopted). Zelensky's agreements with US. US Senators proposing European-funded weapon fund. Memorandum on restoring airspace infrastructure. STERNENKO reports US Treasury sanctions on Iran. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelensky's address at "Helsinki+50" conference. Zelenskiy / Official advocates for international support. Zelenskiy / Official's call with new Polish President. Военкор Котенок reports Azerbaijan's support. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Verkhovna Rada supported education bill. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Germany approved record military aid. РБК-Україна reports no EU funding freeze. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Indian oil refineries suspending purchases of Russian oil. DeepState reports EU preparing massive defense program of €127 billion. РБК-Україна reports US statement at UN Security Council calling for ceasefire by August 8th, indicating continued international diplomatic pressure on RF. STERNENKO reports "Trump wants to sign an agreement to end the war by August 8th, suggesting international pressure for a resolution." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms EU will not freeze financial support for Ukraine after NABU and SAP independence restoration. STERNENKO confirms Indian state-owned oil refineries temporarily suspended purchases of Russian oil, citing Reuters. ASTRA confirms India refused to buy Russian oil after Trump's threats. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Rubio stated US had full conversation with RF this week on stopping the war, with no progress, indicating continued US diplomatic engagement without concessions. STERNENKO confirms Rubio's statements on talks with RF without results. Операция Z similarly reports Rubio's statements. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports US Secretary of State Rubio stated on Fox Radio that the US held talks with Russians regarding stopping the war in Ukraine, but saw no progress. This indicates continued US diplomatic engagement on Ukraine's behalf. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports Indian oil refineries are stopping purchases of Russian oil, citing Reuters. This is a significant blow to RF's financial resources and a gain for Ukraine's international support efforts. Alex Parker Returns relays a White House statement that Trump has achieved effectiveness in one peace agreement or ceasefire per month, and deserves the Nobel Peace Prize, signaling a focus on peace negotiations. Оперативний ЗСУ reports US Senate Committee supported $800M for Ukraine and $225M for Baltic states. STERNENKO confirms US Senate Committee approved funding for Ukraine and Baltic states. РБК-Україна provides a photo message discussing Trump's potential punishment of India over Russian oil and whether sanctions will stop the war in Ukraine, highlighting continued international pressure and support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Ukraine is convening an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council due to a new wave of terror from Russia, according to FM Sybiha, signaling proactive diplomatic engagement. New updates: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Donald Trump's statements, which can be interpreted as a continuation of US pressure on RF and support for Ukraine. РБК-Україна shares video of Trump's sanctions statement, reinforcing the ongoing international financial pressure on RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Challenges for Ukraine: Continued delay in appointing BEB director. Reported shortages for 55th Separate Artillery Brigade. Rubezh NGU Brigade's fundraising highlights ongoing needs. Операция Z disseminates claim of declining US interest. Ukrainian PM Shmyhal's warning about potential military salary arrears highlights critical domestic financial challenge. Операция Z reports Hungary claiming EU weapons for Ukraine are part of secret EU-US tariff deal. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights Trump's statement again equating Russia and Ukraine, presenting a potential diplomatic challenge. TASS reports RF embassy in Sweden accusing Swedish media of using Ukrainian children for fake accusations, an attempt to counter support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian International Relations: RF attempting to shape international narratives. Reinforcing geopolitical alliances (Syria, Nicaragua, Laos). Highlighting Turkish naval systems. Portraying Western disunity. Discussing space cooperation with NASA. Unverified claim of US nuclear weapons in UK. Trump's public comments critical of Medvedev reported by RF channels. Medvedev's direct response to Trump, mentioning nuclear capabilities. ТАСС reports F-35 crash. TASS reports Syrian Foreign Minister's statement. TASS reports Aeroflot resuming flights to Tehran. TASS reports Lukashenka's statement regarding Belarus. TASS reports Syrian Minister of Defense meeting Russian counterpart. TASS reports Putin's talks with Laotian President. TASS reports Patrushev claims Western countries discussing piracy. ТАСС reports Patrushev's statement that NATO is turning Baltic into zone of instability. TASS reports Bank of Russia setting mortgage limits. Colonelcassad shares Patrushev's full statement. TASS reports Putin signed law allowing investigators to suspend financial transactions. TASS reports 40 million rubles collected from Tinkov for Deripaska. TASS reports Putin signed law on fines for extremist materials/VPN advertising. TASS reports Belousov met with Syrian Defense Minister. TASS reports Peskov stated BRICS work not oriented against other countries. Новости Москвы reports Putin signed tax collection law. TASS reports Putin ordered high-speed rail development. TASS reports Moldova intends to solve Transnistrian problem only after RF withdrawal. TASS reports Estonia does not plan to recognize Palestine. TASS reports Peskov stated BRICS work not oriented against other countries. TASS reports Medvedev stating Russia highly values Nicaragua's decision. TASS reports Hungary does not plan to recognize Palestine. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Laotian President Thongloun Sisoulith gifted two elephants to Putin, highlighting a symbolic diplomatic gesture. TASS and MoD Russia report Belousov's talks with Laotian Defence Minister Khamlieng Outhakaisone, discussing military-technical cooperation and joint exercises, indicating strengthened military ties. TASS reports RF and Laos signed seven documents, including a roadmap for nuclear cooperation, further solidifying the relationship. TASS reports Putin received Syrian Foreign Minister in the Kremlin, reaffirming the alliance. Два майора reports Poland "secretly" testing American autonomous boats for Baltic special operations, highlighting Western military cooperation in RF's near abroad. Alex Parker Returns reiterates Nicaragua's recognition of annexed Ukrainian territories, promoting diplomatic success for RF. TASS reports RF embassy in Sweden accused Swedish media of using Ukrainian children for fake accusations against Russia, indicating diplomatic efforts to counter negative narratives. TASS reports Rubio stating US held contacts with Russian representatives to achieve understanding on peace in Ukraine, indicating a diplomatic push from US. ТАСС reports Roscosmos discussing ISS, Moon, and deep space cooperation with US counterpart, showing continued space diplomacy. TASS reports migrants working by government quota will not need to pass history or Russian language tests, indicating an adaptive measure to facilitate foreign labor. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Peskov's statement on Putin's upcoming important address, indicating a reactive posture to international developments. РБК-Україна similarly reports Putin's important statement. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports US Secretary of State Rubio stated on Fox Radio that the US held talks with Russians regarding stopping the war in Ukraine, but saw no progress. This indicates a lack of diplomatic breakthrough for RF. Colonelcassad reports 95% of ships refuse to moor at Eilat port, highlighting potential international economic pressure or regional instability. Старше Эдды comments on Trump's shifting moods regarding tariffs. Военкор Котенок reports humanitarian aid efforts by Rossotrudnichestvo for displaced persons from Nagorno-Karabakh in Armenia, showing a form of adaptive soft power/humanitarian diplomacy. ТАСС reports Hamas is ready to resume negotiations with Israel as soon as hunger stops in Gaza, indicating RF's continued engagement with Middle Eastern actors. New updates: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Donald Trump's statements about Russia, indicating continued international dialogue or rhetoric. ТАСС reports Trump stating "USA will impose sanctions against RF after 10-day deadline," indicating escalating international pressure. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Trump plans to visit Russia after Israel. TASS reports Witkoff will visit Russia, citing Trump. TASS shares photo message of Lavrov's article stating EU and NATO distort facts to rewrite history, indicating a renewed propaganda push against Western narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - noting medium confidence on Nicaragua claim)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

• MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action):
  • RF Ground Operations: RF will maintain high offensive pressure on Pokrovsk axis, attempting to consolidate gains and conduct further mechanized assaults towards Prohres within next 24-48 hours. They will continue urban penetration attempts into Pokrovsk, including use of DRGs. RF will leverage claimed liberation of Chasiv Yar for strategic advantage/propaganda, and likely attempt further offensive operations from this foothold, potentially towards Kostiantynivka, despite UA denials. RF will continue localized advances in Kharkiv/Donetsk. RF will continue probing UA defenses along other Eastern axes, especially Sumy and Siversk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Air/Missile/UAV Operations: RF will continue daily KAB strikes (including FAB-500/1500 with UMPK) on Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and other frontline regions. Expect continued, potentially larger, waves of Shahed (Geran) UAVs targeting urban and industrial centers, including Kyiv, Western Ukraine, Poltava Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (northwest course), and Cherkasy Oblast. RF will continue repeated layered aerial attacks on Kyiv, immediately following drone waves with ballistic/cruise missile launches to overwhelm and penetrate air defenses, potentially employing reactive UAVs and cluster munitions. RF will continue targeted drone strikes on industrial facilities within Russia, for attribution to Ukraine, or targeting legitimate military-industrial sites within RF. RF will continue claiming high rates of destruction of UA UAV control points/drones. RF will likely prioritize further degradation of Ukrainian logistics networks (railway infrastructure and river crossings). RF will continue strikes on urban centers like Kramatorsk. RF will continue drone attacks across border into Russian oblasts like Bryansk. RF will continue to use drones to target emergency services in occupied areas (e.g., firefighters in Luhansk). New updates: RF will continue drone attacks on targets in Rostov Oblast, as evidenced by the new report of drones attacking Taganrog. RF will continue to claim high rates of destruction of enemy air attacks, as stated by Alexander Maximtsev. RF will continue to operate air danger mode in Lipetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Hybrid Operations: RF will intensify information warfare, including false flag operations and narratives aimed at discrediting Ukraine's mobilization/international image, with increasingly aggressive rhetoric, particularly through military bloggers. Internal repression/information control measures will continue to tighten within Russia (e.g., stripping citizenship, internet censorship, film censorship, agricultural land ownership laws, arming departmental security to repel drone attacks). RF will seek to exploit any emerging fissures within Western alliances, and amplify statements from external actors. Expect increased focus on narratives of UA defensive collapse and Western aggression/nuclear proliferation, with high-level figures engaging in rhetorical escalation. Proliferation of genocidal rhetoric in Russian media will continue. RF will continue to exploit internal UA political/social issues to undermine morale. RF will attempt to garner further diplomatic recognition for illegally annexed territories. RF will likely increase propaganda aimed at fueling xenophobia and social unrest within Russia, using narratives about migrants and "ethnic crime" to divert internal discontent. RF will continue to attribute cyberattacks to Western-supported Ukrainian groups as part of their information warfare. RF will continue to leverage controlled media to shape public opinion on internal issues, such as posthumous awards for Crocus attack victims, to reinforce state narratives and control perceived dissenting elements. RF will continue to adapt internal legislation to tighten control over information and personal freedoms, as evidenced by new laws on extremist searches and parental fines, and the stripping of acquired citizenship. RF will attempt to use incidents like the mudslide at Upper Lars to demonstrate vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure and potentially justify increased security measures or border controls. RF will likely continue attempts to engage diplomatically with the US on "peace" in Ukraine, primarily to shape narratives and gauge Western resolve. Expect Putin to make a public statement or address in response to Trump's recent ultimatum, likely aimed at shaping both domestic and international narratives, though this was reported as withdrawn. RF will continue to use various media platforms, including police and military-affiliated ones, for internal messaging and public relations to project stability and strength. New updates: RF will continue to exploit internal social tensions and perceived injustices, as highlighted by the Alex Parker Returns post about a judge and migrants. RF will continue to attempt to undermine the credibility of independent news sources, as seen with Kotsnews' jab at TASS's geography. RF will continue to use various forms of media, including daily summaries, to control and disseminate their preferred narratives. RF will continue to amplify Trump's statements to further their diplomatic goals. RF will continue to push narratives of EU/NATO distorting history, as seen in Lavrov's article. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action):
  • RF Breakthrough on Pokrovsk Axis: RF achieves decisive breakthrough on Pokrovsk axis, leading to rapid collapse of UA defenses and significant territorial gains. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Massive Civilian Casualty Event in Kyiv/Kharkiv/Zaporizhzhia/Kramatorsk: RF conducts highly destructive and targeted missile/KAB/Shahed strike on high-density civilian area, resulting in large number of casualties and overwhelming local emergency services. Recent Kyiv strike significantly elevates this risk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Successful Canal Crossing (Chasiv Yar) under EW Cover: RF forces successfully establish significant bridgehead across Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal under cover of Shipovnik-Aero EW system, leading to rapid outflanking or encirclement of UA defenders. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:
  • Kyiv Air Defense & Civilian Protection: Immediate and ongoing vigilance/rapid response critical within next 0-6 hours due to confirmed ballistic missile strike. Prioritize rapid damage assessment/humanitarian assistance. Immediately dispatch additional emergency services to Sviatoshynskyi/Solomianskyi districts for search/rescue, expecting high casualties. Establish emergency traffic reroutes. Conduct rapid BDA on damaged railway infrastructure, implement repair plans. Integrate DSNS aviation. New MiG-31K launch requires immediate vigilance against potential Kinzhal missile strikes on Kyiv within next 15-30 minutes. Kyiv has declared tomorrow, August 1st, a day of mourning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar Defenses & EW Countermeasures: Immediate ISR tasking and rapid development/dissemination of tactical guidance for drone operators against Shipovnik-Aero EW critical within next 24 hours. Immediate verification of RF claims of Chasiv Yar liberation paramount. Monitor for direct pressure on Kostiantynivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pokrovsk Axis: Critical decisions on reinforcements and defensive lines required within next 24-72 hours, especially in light of claimed RF advances and reported deep DRG penetrations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NABU/SAP Bill Vote: Rada vote on NABU and SAP bill is crucial decision point, now confirmed adopted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare Response: UA's ability to effectively counter RF disinformation/aggressive rhetoric critical over next 24-72 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Avdiivka Materiel Resupply: Immediate resupply of ATGM systems and additional FPV drones to 47th Mechanized Brigade and adjacent units critical within next 12-24 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pavlohrad Monitoring: Initiate immediate ISR collection and analysis on Pavlohrad to understand RF interest/plans within next 24-48 hours. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Sumy Oblast UAV Response: Immediate action to intercept detected reconnaissance UAV and enhance local air defense measures within next 0-6 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Military Salary Arrears: Immediate action on budget amendments required today to prevent arrears. Rada has increased defense spending by 412.3 billion UAH, addressing this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Strategic Shift (August): Alex Parker Returns states "August will be a turning point." Maintain heightened vigilance for indicators of major RF force regrouping/deployment shifts over next 72 hours and into early August. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Kramatorsk Civilian Protection: Immediate damage assessment and humanitarian assistance required in Kramatorsk within next 0-6 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ceasefire Agreement (UN Security Council): The US statement at the UN Security Council setting a deadline of August 8th for a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine creates a critical diplomatic decision point. UA must prepare diplomatic positions and potential responses to this deadline. Trump's statement on seeking peace by August 8th reinforces this timeline. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Drone Saturation (July 2025): The confirmed 1378% increase in RF drone launches in July 2025 necessitates an immediate review of UA counter-drone strategies and resource allocation for the upcoming month. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Military Payments Law: The new law obliging payments to wounded/deceased SVO participants within 30 days sets a timeline for RF to demonstrate compliance with social support, which will impact internal morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Internal Security/Censorship Laws: The immediate implementation of new RF laws on stripping acquired citizenship, fines for extremist searches, and film/series censorship creates critical decision points for UA in terms of advising citizens and countering narratives over the next 24-72 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Putin's Address: Putin's announced "important address" is a critical information environment decision point, expected within the next 12-24 hours, and will likely shape RF narratives and potentially announce new policy directions related to the conflict. Although reported as withdrawn, the initial announcement itself is a decision point, and the possibility of a re-announcement exists. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poltava Oblast Air Defense: Immediate response and strengthening of air defense in Poltava Oblast needed due to new strike UAV threat from the northeast within 0-6 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Disappearance of RF Battalion Commanders: Immediate HUMINT and SIGINT collection is required to determine the fate of the two RF battalion commanders of the 5th Brigade in the "DNR" within the next 24-48 hours, as this could indicate internal purges, disciplinary actions, or other significant internal issues affecting RF C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Overall RF Offensive Operations: The General Staff of AFU operational update for 22:00 (19:00Z) on July 31, 2025, indicates ongoing RF offensive operations and heavy combat. Decision points will be continuous and require immediate adaptation based on specific threat assessments in each sector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UN Security Council Meeting: Ukraine's call for an emergency UN Security Council meeting due to a "new wave of terror from Russia" is an immediate diplomatic decision point requiring comprehensive preparation of Ukraine's diplomatic positions and evidence to be presented. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov Oblast Drone Attacks: Given the new report of drones attacking Taganrog, maintain heightened vigilance and defensive posture in Rostov Oblast within next 0-6 hours, expecting further drone activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Telegram Outage: Monitor the Telegram outage in Russia for any signs of broader digital infrastructure vulnerabilities or intentional disruption, which could indicate a shift in RF digital control measures within the next 24-48 hours. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast UAV Threat: Immediate vigilance and air defense response required for new groups of enemy UAVs detected in southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, moving northwest, within the next 0-6 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cherkasy Oblast Air Defense: Immediate attention to air defense in Cherkasy Oblast due to the new warning, within the next 0-6 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Lipetsk Oblast Air Danger: Immediate monitoring and assessment of the air danger mode in Lipetsk Oblast, and its implications for UA deep strikes or RF internal security, within the next 0-6 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Witkoff Visit to Russia: Monitor the confirmed visit of Witkoff to Russia following his visit to Israel. This is a critical diplomatic decision point that could signal a shift in US-RF relations or a new channel for negotiations. Evaluate the implications of this visit for Ukraine's international support and the ongoing conflict over the next 24-72 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• RF Objectives on Pokrovsk Axis: Specific RF military objectives beyond Rodinskoye and Myrnohrad, true extent of claimed "pinching," depth/strength of claimed RF penetration into Pokrovsk residential areas, veracity of foreign mercenary elimination claims, reported deep DRG penetrations, and extent of RF advances near Zelenaya Dolina/Karpovka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Chasiv Yar Claims Verification: Independent, verifiable confirmation of situation in Chasiv Yar, especially southern parts, and veracity of latest RF claim of UA "factual loss." Independent verification of RF MoD's claimed AFU losses in Chasiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF UGV Production/Deployment: Full scale of RF UGV production and planned integration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Naval Modernization: Impact of reported collapse of RF key fleet renewal project on Black Sea Fleet capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Personnel Mobilization: Extent of resistance to conscription, effectiveness of new recruitment tactics, effectiveness of local recruitment in occupied territories. Full context and implications of Fighterbomber's report of two "best" (pilots/crew) killed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Nature of French Cyberattack: Exact perpetrators, methods, full extent of data exfiltration/system damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF "Italmas" UAV Development: Capabilities, production, intended deployment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Drone Interception Capability: Details of RF's "Yolka" air defense drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• GPS Spoofing System Identification: Specific type and location of sophisticated RF EW system responsible for GPS spoofing in Zaporizhzhia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF "Electric Scooter" Doctrine: Scale of deployment and intended tactical doctrine. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Impact of Trump's Ultimatum: Immediate/long-term impact on RF strategic decision-making, Western unity, international support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• UA Public Donation Trends: Specific reasons for reported "dip" in public donations and broader implications. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Specifics of current Kyiv Shahed/Missile attack: Precise number of drones, primary targets, full BDA on all impact sites (over 27 locations). Precise number/nature of hits on industrial targets claimed by Poddubny. Full extent of damage to railway infrastructure. Specific nature of "reactive Shaheds." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Laser Weapon System ("Posokh" project): Independent verification of capabilities, stage of development, deployment timeline. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• RF Interest in Pavlohrad: Exact nature of RF's interest beyond recent strike. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• RF Thermal Imager Shortfall: Extent of shortfall, effectiveness of public donation campaigns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• US Nuclear Weapons in UK: Independent verification of claim. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian Battalion Commander Losses: Exact circumstances and implications of reported loss of second RF battalion commander in 5 days. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• RF Aid Fund Data: Details on specific quantities/types of supplies delivered via "SVO Aid Fund," and extent to which they complement/compensate for official military logistics. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Impact of "Reactive Shaheds": Detailed technical analysis to understand capabilities and countermeasures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Ground Robotic Complex Capabilities: Further details on capabilities, numbers, tactical deployment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Specifics of "MADHAWK L GENEHC[redacted]E20148" Drone: Identification and capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kharkiv POW/MIA Data: Detailed breakdown of numbers and units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Donetsk Locust/Grasshopper Infestation Impact: Actual impact on agriculture, public health, morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Ukrainian Drone Munitions: Technical specifications, production rate, planned tactical integration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Nature of Russian Internal Security Arrests of Youth: Extent to which arrested teenagers are genuinely involved vs. victims of provocations, and scale. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Accuracy of RF Claims on Belarusian Sabotage: Independent verification beyond propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Impact of Kryvyi Rih Incident: Specific details, condition of veteran, public reaction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Motivation for Rada Conflict: Specific political disagreements, personal dynamics, potential impact on legislative output. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Details of "Batyr" UAV: Specific capabilities, origin, deployment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Border Point Closures in Rostov: Specific reason for closures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Specifics of 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade POW/MIA: Detailed breakdown of numbers and units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Impact of MiG-31K Sortie: Exact flight path, potential targets, if Kinzhal missiles launched. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF "Motiv" Anti-Tank Weapon: Detailed technical specifications, production status, tactical deployment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Effectiveness of Max Messenger Transition in RF: Extent of adoption, security, overall effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Nicaragua Recognition Claim: Independent verification of claimed recognition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - to verify, currently MEDIUM on veracity)
• Kramatorsk Strike Details: Precise weapon type, extent of damage, detailed casualty figures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Recruitment/Conscription Messages: Specific intent and impact of messages like "Urgent service is dangerous for life." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF 7th Division's Appeal for Drones/Starlink: Scale of reported shortages, reflection of widespread issues within RF VDV. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kamianske (Zaporizhzhia) Status: Definitive, independent verification of territorial control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• TikTok Data Leak Impact: Full impact on Russian users, security risk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Vladimir Oblast Drone Incident: Type and origin of drone, intentional strike or malfunction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ilovaisk Road Accident Details: Full details, involvement of military personnel, cause, combat-related. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Synevyr National Park Land Seizure: Full extent of environmental damage, legal implications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukrainian Engineering Capabilities: Specifics of "Country of Engineers" initiative, funding, participants, projected impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Balashikha Fire: Cause, accidental or attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sevastopol Photographer Sentencing: Full details and evidence, wider crackdown. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Bryansk Civilian Injury: Full details, severity, specific location. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• BRICS Stance: Full implications of Peskov's statement on BRICS' orientation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Tax Collection Law: Full economic and social impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Suit Against Saponkov: Details, potential impact on military blogger community. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Impact of Crimean Bridge Queue: Cause and operational impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Details on Crocus Attack Posthumous Awards: Specific rationale for different awards and how they relate to the ethnicity of victims. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Verification of "Ethnic Occupation of Markets": Independent assessment of claims regarding migrant involvement in crime and illicit capital outflow in Russian markets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Current status and exact location of RF "Aramata" tanks: While the video from Alex Parker Returns claims "Aramata not needed," this is likely a propaganda statement. The true status and deployment of these systems remain a gap. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Khrapovshchyna (Sumy Oblast) Battle Assessment: Independent verification of engagement, specific UA unit involved, actual UA losses, and RF claims of "destruction." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Details on "SVO Fighters" Recommendations: The specific nature of "recommendations" from RF soldiers in the "Два майора" video and their intended audience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Military Cooperation with Laos: Specific nature and scope of military training, joint exercises, and arms sales. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Polish/US Autonomous Boats in Baltic Sea: Detailed capabilities of the USVs, their operational role in Polish special operations, and specific areas of testing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Lyman - Zelenoye Pole Situation: Precise current frontlines, specific RF unit involvement, and tactical objectives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Journalists on Wanted List: Specific charges against Petr Ivanov and Ruslan Terekhov, and their current location/activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ufa Pensioner Fined: Detailed context of the VK comments, the "Russian community" she defended, and the full impact of the fine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF "gifts" for soldiers: Specific concerns raised by Fighterbomber regarding quality over quantity of aid for soldiers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Cost and Production Constraints of Reactive Shaheds: Detailed analysis of the expert's claims regarding RF's inability to fully transition to reactive Shaheds, including specific cost figures and production bottlenecks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Status of Churches in Occupied Territories: Independent verification of the state of the churches in the video from Basurin, and the veracity of claims regarding UA shelling and unexploded ordnance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Nature of "Parker's Magic Button": The specific intent and impact of Alex Parker Returns's claim of having a "magic button," and its role in RF information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Impact of RF Mortgage Holidays Law: Full economic and social impact of the new law on mortgage holidays for families with children on RF society and economy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Effectiveness of New RF Extremist Search Fines: The practical impact of the new law introducing fines for extremist searches in search engines on information access and dissent within Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Recruitment and Volunteer Program Details: Further specifics on the meeting between the Deputy Plenipotentiary of the Far Eastern Federal District and volunteers, including recruitment numbers, incentives, and deployment plans. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian Mudslide Impact on Border: Full operational impact of the mudslide at Verkhniy Lars on border crossing capacity and security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Impact of RF Stripping Citizenship: Specific numbers of individuals affected, and the legal and social ramifications for targeted groups (e.g., political opponents, Ukrainians). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Annual Technology Report: Details of the specific technologies to be reported, and the mechanism for assessing their "effectiveness." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Speedtest Ookla Ban: Specific technical and operational implications of Roskomnadzor's request to remove Speedtest Ookla, and its impact on internet monitoring within RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF State Support for Large Families: Details of the unified standard of state support, its implementation timeline, and projected demographic impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Map Accuracy (Novopavlovskoye Direction): Independent verification of RF-published maps like the one from Colonelcassad for the Southern Donetsk/Novopavlovskoye direction, to accurately assess claimed advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• SUNSTRIKE Unit Capabilities: Detailed assessment of the SUNSTRIKE unit's tactics, equipment, and full impact on RF drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Iskander-K Interception Details: Technical details of the Ukrainian Presidential Brigade's successful interception of the Iskander-K missile, including type of air defense system used and any new insights into missile capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Dnipropetrovsk Strike Details: Specific target of the explosion in Dnipropetrovsk shown by "Два майора" and full extent of damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Police Casualties in Kyiv: Full details of injured police personnel, including senior lieutenant Liliya Stepanchuk, and their current condition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Migrant Children in Russian Schools: Full implications and operational impact of information transfer to the Ministry of Internal Affairs regarding migrant children in schools/colleges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Film Censorship Impact: Full details and actual enforcement of the new law blocking films/series that "discredit traditional values," and its impact on Russian society and cultural exchange. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian Space Cooperation with NASA: Full implications of Roscosmos's agreement with NASA on ISS operations and future space cooperation amidst ongoing conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF "Hogweed Law" Impact: The impact of Putin's new law on agricultural landowners spreading hogweed on land ownership and agricultural output. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Discipline Issues: The extent and impact of unlawful actions and crimes by RF military units, and the effectiveness of internal investigations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Putin's Upcoming Address: The specific content, tone, and implications of Putin's upcoming "important address." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Telegram Segregation Policy (RF): Details on Telegram's new account rating system and its impact on information dissemination, spam, and illicit activities within Russia, as claimed by Alex Parker Returns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Polohivskyi District Civilian Casualties: Independent verification of the alleged Ukrainian attack on a civilian vehicle, the number of fatalities, and the specific circumstances to counter RF propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Shebekino Fatalities: Independent verification of the man's death and the extent of the shelling in Shebekino to counter RF propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Odesa GUR Strike Details: Specific target of the strike, extent of damage, and any casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Lipetsk KPRF Search: Full details of the search, any seized materials, and the charges against the KPRF members. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Eilat Port Closure: The specific reasons for 95% of ships refusing to moor at Eilat port, and its broader implications for regional shipping and trade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• 503rd Regiment Status: The nature of the request from "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" for contact from the 503rd regiment, including its current status, location, and potential needs or issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF SVO Disabled Pensions Law: The full scope and impact of Putin's new law on two pensions for SVO participants who became disabled. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian FPV Drone Capabilities: Detailed capabilities of the FPV drone operated by 144th MSD, including its range, payload capacity, and any advanced guidance systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian Internal Social Dynamics in Moscow: The prevalence and implications of incidents like the mother hitting her child in Podmoskovye, and whether they reflect broader social tensions within Russia or are isolated events. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• North Korean Artillery Status: Confirmation of damage and destruction of the North Korean M-1978 "Koksan" self-propelled artillery system following the HIMARS strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Fate of Disappeared RF Battalion Commanders: Immediate confirmation of the status and location of the two battalion commanders who disappeared after being summoned by superiors, as this could have significant implications for RF C2 and morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Makeevka School Collapse: The cause and full extent of damage to the school building in Makeevka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Hamas Negotiation Conditions: The sincerity and full implications of Hamas's stated condition for resuming negotiations with Israel regarding hunger in Gaza. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Drone Production Increase: Independent verification of the claimed 1374% increase in "Geran" and "Gerberok" (Shahed and imitation drones) launches in July 2025 compared to July 2024, and the industrial capacity supporting such an increase. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF MLRS Capabilities (Uragan): Technical assessment of the effectiveness of the Uragan MLRS and its integration with drone targeting, as shown in the Colonelcassad video. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Military Journalist Self-Correction/Information Control: The extent to which Kotsnews is "teaching TASS geography" and the implications for RF's internal information control and the credibility of its state media. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Impact of Telegram Outage: The full extent and cause of the Telegram outage, and whether it was an internal issue or due to external factors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Impact of 85 New Laws: The full social, economic, and military impact of the 85 laws signed by Putin on July 31st. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Witkoff Visit to Russia: The specific agenda, participants, and outcomes of Witkoff's visit to Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize Kyiv Air Defense & Civilian Protection (URGENT): Immediately redeploy all available short- and medium-range air defense systems to further strengthen Kyiv's air defense, particularly around critical infrastructure and densely populated civilian areas. Accelerate the provision of interceptors for Shahed, reactive drones, and ballistic/cruise missiles, especially those capable of engaging cluster munitions. Ensure rapid response and civilian protection protocols are activated, including immediate damage assessment and humanitarian assistance in impacted areas. Prioritize informing the civilian population of safe sheltering locations, such as metro stations, and enforce compliance during air raid alerts. Immediately dispatch additional emergency services and medical teams to reported residential impacts in Sviatoshynskyi and Solomianskyi districts for search and rescue operations, expecting high and rising casualties (now 159 injured, 16 fatalities), and focusing on the 10 reported missing persons. Establish emergency traffic reroutes around affected areas in Kyiv. Conduct rapid BDA on damaged railway infrastructure and implement immediate repair plans to minimize logistical disruption. Integrate DSNS aviation and other civilian emergency assets for rapid response to large-scale civilian impact events. Maintain maximum readiness for potential Kinzhal missile strikes on Kyiv following the confirmed MiG-31K launch. Initiate immediate ISR on the MiG-31K flight path and associated activities. Coordinate civilian support activities around Kyiv's declared day of mourning on August 1st. Analyze the successful interception of the Iskander-K missile by the Presidential Brigade for replicable tactics and capabilities. Provide full support to law enforcement personnel, including police senior lieutenant Liliya Stepanchuk's family, affected by the strikes. Acknowledge and publicly commend the efforts of emergency services in Kyiv, particularly the completion of search and rescue operations in Solomianskyi and ongoing efforts in Sviatoshynskyi, providing regular updates to the public on casualty figures and assistance provided. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2. Verify Chasiv Yar Status and Adjust Defenses (URGENT): Immediately conduct comprehensive ISR (IMINT, HUMINT, SIGINT) to verify RF claims of complete liberation of Chasiv Yar and specifically confirm the situation in the southern part of the city. Critically assess the latest RF claim of UA confirmation of "factual loss" of Chasiv Yar. Leverage the provided UA drone footage (Николаевский Ванёк, Оперативний ЗСУ 24 ОМБр, Оперативний ЗСУ БСП "Донбас") as definitive evidence against RF claims and publicly disseminate it. Fully assess the new RF claims of flags being raised on the "last street" in the south of Chasiv Yar for their accuracy and implications. If confirmed, rapidly establish new defensive lines west of the canal, reinforce all units in the area, and prepare for potential counter-offensives. Prioritize ISR on the Shipovnik-Aero EW system for neutralization and immediate tactical guidance to drone operators. Monitor for direct pressure on Kostiantynivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
3. Reinforce Eastern Fronts and Verify Pokrovsk Penetration: Prioritize immediate deployment of additional artillery, armored vehicles, and infantry reinforcements to the Pokrovsk axis, particularly to support the 55th Separate Artillery Brigade. Urgently conduct ISR to verify the extent and strength of RF penetration into Pokrovsk residential areas, investigate claims of foreign mercenary elimination, and specifically the reported deep DRG penetrations. Prepare for and repel anticipated major mechanized assaults towards Prohres, leveraging the success of the 47th Mechanized Brigade. Conduct rapid BDA on RF MoD claims of seizing fortified areas on the approaches to Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Monitor and counter RF advances in Kharkiv region, near Kupyansk, and Serebryanka, particularly in the 7 newly impacted settlements. Utilize intelligence from Kadyrov_95 regarding Akhmat special forces operations in Kharkiv direction for enhanced defensive planning. Analyze the "Z committee" map of the Krasnolimanskoe direction and Colonelcassad's Novopavlovskoye map to identify key defensive structures and potential RF vectors for attack. Evaluate the implications of the RF claim to be encircling Kostiantynivka from Oleksandropol-Kalynove and adjust defensive posture accordingly. Leverage Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's assessment of the Pokrovsk direction to validate defensive strategies. Monitor the TASS report on UA losing hope of holding Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) for its impact on morale and to prepare counter-narratives. Conduct BDA on the "НгП раZVедка" video showing a bridge destruction in Konstantinovka, assessing the strategic impact on logistics and re-routing supply lines. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
4. Counter-Disinformation Operations and Aggressive Rhetoric: Immediately launch a coordinated counter-propaganda campaign to disseminate GUR MO's legal evidence of Russian child abductions. Actively refute RF false flag narratives regarding civilian casualties and fabricated incidents. Counter RF narratives on internal issues and actively disseminate information about RF targeting of civilian infrastructure and logistics hubs (e.g., Pavlohrad, Kyiv railway, Volchya River crossing). Expose RF's reliance on public cryptocurrency donations as a sign of their resource constraints. Directly counter RF military blogger PSYOPS and narratives about Ukrainian leadership, specifically addressing the recent aggressive and mocking rhetoric regarding air defense failures and explicit threats of future mass attacks, and their claims regarding Zhuliany Airport and damage to Kyiv Polytechnic. Develop and disseminate compelling narratives countering RF propaganda related to mobilization efforts, specifically addressing the recent aggressive rhetoric and the use of captured UA personnel (e.g., the 'Aidar' battalion video) to discredit Ukrainian forces and internal morale. Highlight RF's internal issues, suchs as airport restrictions and the persistent ISS air leak, to portray a less stable internal situation. Directly counter and expose RF military bloggers like "Два майора" and "Colonelcassad" who are celebrating civilian casualties and destruction in Kyiv, using their own content to demonstrate RF's intent to terrorize the civilian population. Refute unverified claims of US nuclear weapons delivery to the UK, highlighting them as RF disinformation. Develop and disseminate counter-narratives to ARCHENGEL SPETSNAZ's claims regarding Mexican cartel members in UA forces. Explicitly counter RF narratives concerning the Crocus attack, emphasizing the true nature of the perpetrators' motivations. Leverage STERNENKO's post on the damaged Kyiv mosque to highlight RF's indiscriminate targeting. Publicly condemn the genocidal rhetoric propagated by Russian media, citing the specific headline reported by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and use it to galvanize international support and moral outrage. Counter RF narratives regarding the exploitation of Russian teenagers, emphasizing the criminal nature of such activities and the false attribution to Ukraine. Actively highlight and expose RF propaganda efforts that celebrate harm to Ukrainian veterans or exploit internal political disputes to undermine unity and morale. Directly refute the unverified claim of Nicaragua's recognition of annexed territories, providing factual international legal positions. Publicly condemn the targeting of civilian areas like Kramatorsk and highlight the resulting destruction. Emphasize Ignat's counter-disinformation on reactive Shaheds. Exploit Russia's new restrictive laws (e.g., VPNs, "extremist" info, citizenship stripping, film censorship, agricultural land ownership laws, "Hogweed Law") to highlight authoritarianism and undermine public trust in RF governance. Address and contextualize the "difficulty" of shooting down reactive Gerans to avoid demoralization. Continue to highlight Russian internal dissent, such as the lawsuit against Saponkov, to sow discord. Immediately counter the RF narrative regarding the Aeroflot cyberattack, providing factual information and discrediting the claim of Western-supported Ukrainian hackers. Develop narratives to counter the xenophobic "ethnic occupation of markets" propaganda, emphasizing unity and diverse contributions. Emphasize the importance of Ukrainian cultural heritage and resilience, as demonstrated by the preservation of historical artifacts like the "Kobzar" books, to counter Russian narratives seeking to deny Ukrainian identity. Publicly condemn RF's crackdown on independent journalists, like the Sota journalists, to highlight suppression of free speech. Highlight instances of internal social friction within Russia, such as the pensioner being fined, to illustrate societal vulnerabilities. Counter any RF narratives attempting to legitimize their increased fines on parents. **Publicly refute Alex Parker Returns's claim of a "magic button" as propaganda designed to sow confusion and exaggerate RF capabilities. Actively counter the RF narrative propagated by Basurin about UA shelling churches and leaving mines, providing verifiable information about the state of religious sites and the source of damage. Utilize the expert analysis from РБК-Україна regarding the unlikelihood of RF fully transitioning to reactive Shaheds to counter RF claims of superior drone capabilities. Publicly counter RF embassy's accusations against Swedish media regarding Ukrainian children, providing factual evidence of RF child abduction. Inform the public about Roskomnadzor's attempts to limit internet access and tools like Speedtest Ookla, emphasizing RF's control over information. Respond to TASS reporting of Rubio's statement on US-Russia contacts by reaffirming Ukraine's commitment to a just peace based on sovereignty and territorial integrity. Publicly condemn the alleged desecration of bodies and cultural sites in Artsakh as depicted in Военкор Котенок's videos. Publicly address the RF narrative regarding the dismantling of the Aivazovsky monument in Karabakh, emphasizing its cultural significance. Counter RF narratives regarding Trump's stance on Ukraine, ensuring clarity on Ukraine's position for peace. Prepare counter-narratives for Putin's anticipated important address, anticipating themes of Russian resilience, Western aggression, and selective peace proposals. Expose Alex Parker Returns's claims regarding Telegram's new segregation policy as a potential means to promote illicit content within RF, further highlighting internal vulnerabilities. Actively counter the "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" report on an alleged UA attack on a civilian vehicle in Polohivskyi district, emphasizing RF's intent to fabricate narratives of Ukrainian war crimes. Use the ASTRA report on the death of Derk Sauer to highlight the plight of independent media figures facing pressures in Russia. Monitor and counter any RF narratives arising from the search of the Lipetsk KPRF premises. Counter Alex Parker Returns's photo message criticizing slow progress by highlighting Ukrainian resilience and the cost of RF's advances. Address the White House statement on Trump's peace efforts, as relayed by Alex Parker Returns and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, by reaffirming Ukraine's conditions for peace and exposing any attempts to legitimize illegal annexations. Actively highlight and use the RF MoD's own "Daily Figure" photo messages to demonstrate the daily attrition of RF forces and resources, using their own propaganda against them. Publicly condemn the RF narratives on internal social issues in Moscow as a diversionary tactic from their military failures and as evidence of their own societal challenges. Counter the RF propaganda claim of July drone launches being "as many as for the whole of last year" by providing accurate, verified data on UA air defense effectiveness and RF drone attrition. Emphasize the human cost of RF aggression by highlighting the collapsed school in Makeevka. Publicly condemn RF's celebration of civilian casualties and destruction in Chasiv Yar, using their own photos as evidence of war crimes. New updates: Actively counter the new RF claims about Chasiv Yar being fully captured, using real-time updates and debunking false flags. Address the Alex Parker Returns photo message about the judge and migrants by providing factual information about the legal process and condemning any xenophobic narratives. Publicly counter RF's attempts to mock TASS's geography by demonstrating superior intelligence and factual accuracy. Publicly condemn RF's exaggerated claims of 95% interception of enemy air attacks, providing verifiable data on UA successful strikes into RF territory. Publicly address Lavrov's statements regarding EU and NATO rewriting history, presenting factual counter-arguments regarding the conflict's origins and current events. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - noting medium confidence on Nicaragua claim, and recognizing meme nature of some IO)
5. Accelerate NABU/SAP Reform: The Rada has now passed the NABU and SAP bill, a significant step. Continue to actively counter RF propaganda designed to undermine confidence in these reforms, leveraging public support for transparency. Investigate and prosecute reported corruption schemes in procurement to ensure efficient use of resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
6. Personnel and Equipment Assessment: Conduct urgent assessment of 55th Separate Artillery Brigade's specific personnel and technical means shortages and implement a rapid resupply and training program. Leverage successful FPV drone tactics and prioritize provision of excavators for rapid entrenchment. Support fundraising efforts for units like the Rubezh NGU Brigade to address equipment losses. **Investigate the reported loss of a second battalion commander in 5 days to determine if systemic issues are contributing to leadership attrition. Investigate and publicly highlight the internal RF issue of killed personnel (e.g., Fighterbomber's report of two "best" killed) to exploit their personnel losses and morale. Address concerns about the quality of aid provided to RF soldiers to highlight potential systemic issues in their logistics and support. Continue to highlight the transformation of civilians into military personnel as a demonstration of national resilience and commitment. Exploit RF VDV's appeal for Mavic and Pro drones to highlight their specific equipment shortages and reliance on public donations. Leverage the new TASS law obliging payments to wounded/deceased SVO participants to monitor for compliance and potential RF internal discontent if not met. Provide support to Ukrainian servicemen and their families through measures suchs as additional vacation days. Publicly highlight and exploit reports of unlawful actions and crimes by RF military units, and the challenges in their investigation, to further undermine RF morale and internal cohesion. Utilize the "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" summary for July 31st to gain further insight into RF personnel movements and potential vulnerabilities. Respond to "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺"'s request for contact from the 503rd regiment to gather intelligence on their status and needs. Analyze the impact of Putin's new law on two pensions for SVO disabled participants on RF's long-term personnel sustainment and social welfare. New update: Investigate the photos from Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 showing waste/refuse in Sevastopol, connecting these conditions to RF's overall resource management and potential impact on local personnel morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
7. ISR Focus on RF Drone Ops and EW: Intensify ISR collection on RF drone operations and their capabilities, especially the increased Lancet activity, FAB-1500, and reactive drone strikes. Prioritize SIGINT and IMINT tasking to locate and characterize the Shipovnik-Aero EW system. Develop and disseminate immediate tactical guidance for drone operators on potential countermeasures (e.g., alternative frequencies, revised flight paths). Prioritize targeting of this EW asset. Increase ISR on RF tactical aviation activity in northeastern directions for early warning and targeting. Conduct forensic analysis of any captured "Baba Yaga" drones or their components to understand RF counter-drone tactics. Prioritize BDA on the Penza Radio Plant strike to assess its impact on RF military computing production capabilities. Conduct rapid BDA on the Volgograd Oblast railway incident to understand its impact on RF logistics. Monitor RF's development and deployment of passive drone protection systems like "Oduvanchik" for potential widespread integration. Conduct technical analysis of "reactive Shaheds" for effective countermeasures. Intensify ISR on RF ground robotic complexes following the destruction of one by the NGU "Khartia" Brigade to understand their capabilities and deployment patterns. Immediately analyze reported new Ukrainian drone munitions for integration into current drone capabilities. Conduct detailed analysis of the "Batyr" UAV system used in Penza strike. Assess RF adaptive measures such as the modified "Frankenstein" truck against drone threats. Monitor RF efforts to use civilian vehicles for military logistics, such as the truck laden with concertina wire, to identify vulnerabilities and assess supply chain resilience. Continue ISR on the use of FPV drones and artillery in Nikopolshchyna to understand RF's evolving tactics in this area. Monitor the expert analysis on RF's ability to transition to reactive Shaheds to inform long-term counter-drone strategies. Monitor for and exploit RF vulnerabilities to UA drone strikes on personnel, as evidenced by the incident in Luhansk. Focus ISR on Supercam S350 UAV teams to counter their ISR and targeting capabilities against UA forces in Kharkiv. Monitor RF ground strike capabilities, such as the one in Sumy Oblast captured by "Два майора." Continue to monitor RF FPV drone operations for improvised explosive devices and specialized munitions, as demonstrated by WarGonzo's footage. Analyze the animated map provided by Colonelcassad illustrating RF strike patterns to identify high-threat areas and potential future targets. Conduct immediate BDA on the reported strike on GUR in Odesa Oblast to assess impact and capabilities used. Prioritize ISR on RF tactical aviation launches of KABs on the Kharkiv-Donetsk border, as reported by Повітряні Сили ЗС України. Increase ISR on enemy strike UAVs from the Black Sea in Mykolaiv Oblast, as reported by Повітряні Сили ЗС України, to adapt air defense strategies. Analyze the video of the FPV drone strike by 144th MSD, assessing the precision and effectiveness of RF FPV drone operations, particularly their ability to target vulnerabilities like mesh netting on military vehicles. Prioritize ISR on the new threat of enemy strike UAVs from the northeast in Poltava Oblast. Conduct BDA on the successful HIMARS strike on the North Korean M-1978 "Koksan" self-propelled artillery system to assess the effectiveness of UA targeting and RF reliance on external military aid. Analyze the Alex Parker Returns image and text claiming a 1374% increase in RF drone launches in July 2025, and investigate the implications for RF drone production and supply chains, particularly for reactive drones. Conduct forensic analysis of any captured drones similar to the 3D model shared by Alex Parker Returns to understand their capabilities. Monitor RF's use of Uragan MLRS for integration with drone targeting, as seen in the Colonelcassad video. New update: Intensify ISR on Rostov Oblast, particularly Taganrog, for new drone attack patterns. Monitor Telegram outages in RF for any correlation with cyber activity or shifts in RF digital control measures. Prioritize ISR on new groups of enemy UAVs detected in southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, moving northwest. Monitor air danger mode in Lipetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
8. Prepare for Mechanized Assaults (Avdiivka Axis): Prioritize immediate resupply of ATGM systems (Javelin, Stugna-P) and additional FPV drones to the 47th Mechanized Brigade and adjacent units. Anticipate another major mechanized assault towards Prohres within the next 24-48 hours. Continue BZVP training at the 47th Mechanized Brigade base. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
9. Northern Border Defensive Posture: Maintain heightened vigilance and readiness against reconnaissance and strike UAVs in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts. Increase border patrol effectiveness against draft evasion attempts. Prioritize interception of reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy area. Conduct immediate BDA and verify RF claims of destroying an AFU assault group in Khrapovshchyna, Sumy Oblast, and adjust defensive tactics accordingly. Utilize intelligence from Ukrainian SSO operators clearing a settlement in Kursk Oblast to inform cross-border operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
10. Sustain Mine Clearance Operations: Continue and expand mine clearance efforts, particularly in regions like Kherson Oblast and Kharkiv Oblast, to improve maneuverability and reduce civilian risk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
11. Implement Underground Training: Rapidly implement Syrisky's directive to transfer military training underground. Review and update 51-day BZVP program for maximum effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
12. Integrate 25-Year-Old Conscripts: Expedite full integration of newly formalized 25-year-old conscript reserve pool into training and deployment, ensuring adequate training and support, including medical and pharmaceutical specialists. Utilize the expanded "18-24" program to facilitate higher education for young volunteers without disrupting service, further enhancing readiness and long-term personnel development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
13. Address Donetsk Water Shortages: Ukrainian authorities must immediately assess full impact of water supply reductions and implement emergency water distribution plans, and investigate the cause of the reductions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
14. Expedite 16th Army Corps Readiness: Accelerate the formation, equipping, and training of the newly created 16th Army Corps to bolster Kharkiv's defenses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
15. Support Siversk Defenses: Provide immediate support to 10th OGShBr to maintain their defensive successes against RF assaults, including materiel and personnel, and analyze RF's continued use of motorcycles in assaults. Utilize intelligence from STERNENKO's video of UA destroying a Russian vehicle in the Siversk direction to inform defensive tactics. Conduct ISR to verify RF ground activity and personnel movement in the Siversk - Ivano-Daryevka direction, as reported by Сливочный каприз, to inform defensive adjustments. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
16. Zhytomyr Oblast Air Defense: Rapid deployment of additional air defense assets and personnel to Zhytomyr Oblast within the next 12-24 hours, given the new trajectory of Shahed UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
17. Monitor Pavlohrad: Prioritize ISR collection and analysis on Pavlohrad to determine the nature of RF interest or potential plans for this key logistical and industrial hub, especially after the confirmed strikes on agricultural and transport enterprises. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
18. Address Zaporizhzhia Casualties: Provide immediate support to local authorities in Zaporizhzhia region to address the two reported casualties and assess the extent of damage from the recent Russian attack. **Investigate the TASS report of three fatalities, including a child, from an приступ on a car in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Investigate the "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" report on 3 fatalities in Polohivskyi district after an alleged Ukrainian attack on a civilian vehicle to verify and prepare counter-narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
19. Counter FSB Agent Network: Continue and intensify SBU efforts to uncover and neutralize FSB agent networks, particularly those targeting energy infrastructure in key oblasts like Kharkiv, and those involved in aiding enemy targeting of strategic enterprises. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
20. Promote Ingenuity in Rescue and Combat: Analyze and disseminate best practices from successful drone-aided rescue operations and innovative combat tactics (e.g., drone-delivered electric bikes for evacuation, FPV drone strikes on infantrymen with AT mines) to all relevant units for rapid adoption and force multiplication. Leverage the STERNENKO video of "Apache" FPV drone group for training and tactical dissemination. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
21. Support Kharkiv Civilian Services: Provide immediate assistance to the Coordination Staff on POWs and MIAs in Kharkiv Oblast to support their work with affected families, ensuring that essential resources are available. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
22. Leverage New Drone Munitions: Expedite assessment and integration of any newly acquired drone munitions, such as those reportedly from Denmark, to enhance offensive capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
23. Address Military Salary Arrears: Ukrainian government has now secured the necessary budget amendments to ensure military personnel salaries are paid on time. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
24. Monitor Internal RF Dissent & Control: Continue to monitor and analyze the impact of internal Russian security measures and propaganda efforts against perceived "traitors" and pro-Ukrainian elements, particularly among youth. Exploit any verifiable signs of public dissatisfaction or declining morale within Russia, especially regarding military service and veteran support. Monitor the ASTRA report on the search of the Lipetsk KPRF premises to understand the extent of RF internal political repression. Investigate the ASTRA report of a man dying after shelling in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, to understand the local impact and potential for further unrest. Monitor "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺"'s request for contact from the 503rd regiment for signs of internal personnel issues or morale problems. Monitor the ASTRA report on the suicide of Aleksandr Frolov in the UK after being denied asylum, using this to highlight the dire consequences of RF's internal repression for its citizens. Actively highlight images of neglect and waste in occupied Crimea, such as those shared by Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, to further demonstrate internal mismanagement and potential for discontent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
25. Investigate Zaporizhzhia Prison Bombing: Conduct an immediate, thorough, and transparent investigation into the bombing of the prison in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, documenting all evidence of RF intent and responsibility for targeting a civilian facility, to support international accountability efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
26. Address RF Veteran Support Deficiencies: Publicly highlight and condemn the poor treatment of Russian veterans and mobilized personnel, such as the mobilized invalid given a ruined apartment, to expose internal RF systemic failures and undermine morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
27. Investigate Rostov Border Closures: Conduct immediate ISR to determine the specific reasons for the border crossing closures in Rostov Oblast, whether due to security incidents, logistical challenges, or internal control measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
28. Monitor RF Drone Delivery Networks: Intensify ISR on RF methods of FPV drone delivery, particularly within occupied territories, following the liquidation of Daria Trofimova, to uncover and disrupt such networks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
29. Monitor RF Strategic Intent (August): Given the explicit statement from Alex Parker Returns that "August will be a turning point," allocate additional ISR assets to monitor for any significant changes in RF force posture, logistics build-up, or strategic communication that would indicate a major offensive or shift in military operations. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
30. Assess New RF Anti-Tank System: Initiate immediate intelligence collection and technical analysis on the reported new RF "Motiv" anti-tank weapon to understand its capabilities, deployment, and potential countermeasures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
31. Monitor RF Internal Communications: Continuously monitor developments regarding RF regional officials' transition to the "Max" messenger to assess its impact on RF internal communication security and potential vulnerabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
32. Kramatorsk Response: Provide immediate humanitarian assistance and support to local authorities in Kramatorsk for damage assessment and recovery efforts following the strike on the city center. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
33. Exploit RF Resource Constraints: Leverage intelligence on RF 7th Division's appeal for drones and Starlink to understand and potentially exploit specific materiel shortages within RF VDV units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
34. Verify Kamianske Status: Prioritize immediate and independent ISR to confirm the true status of Kamianske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) given the conflicting reports from DeepState and the Southern Defense Forces. If the DeepState report is confirmed, new defensive measures must be immediately assessed and implemented. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
35. Bolster Ukrainian Engineering and Production Capabilities: Fully support and expedite the "Country of Engineers" national initiative by the Technological Forces of Ukraine and Ministry of Strategic Industries. This includes ensuring adequate funding, resources, and policy support to boost the production of military equipment, especially drones and other advanced systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
36. Mitigate Agricultural Losses in Zaporizhzhia: Provide immediate assistance to Zaporizhzhia Oblast to address the destruction of nearly 700 hectares of grain by fires due to shelling. Implement measures to protect remaining agricultural land and ensure food security for the region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
37. Protect Synevyr National Park: Initiate immediate legal action and protective measures to reverse the illegal seizure of 36.5 hectares of protected lands in Synevyr National Nature Park. Coordinate with environmental agencies to assess and mitigate any ecological damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
38. Address Russian Internal Security Crackdown: Publicly highlight and condemn RF's increasing internal repression, including severe sentences for perceived "saboteurs" and those collecting military data, particularly the 22-year sentence for the Sevastopol photographer. Use these cases to emphasize the oppressive nature of the RF regime and galvanize international human rights support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
39. Address Bryansk Civilian Injury: Provide immediate assistance to the civilian injured in Bryansk Oblast due to a UA drone attack and conduct BDA to confirm impact and intent, if any. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
40. Monitor BRICS Diplomatic Stance: Continue to monitor BRICS statements and actions for any shifts that could impact international relations relevant to the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
41. Assess RF Internal Tax Law Impact: Monitor the implementation and social impact of Putin's new tax collection law for any signs of internal instability or public discontent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
42. Respond to Mail Summoning: Prepare public guidance and support mechanisms for citizens affected by the potential change to combat summons delivery via mail. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
43. Monitor Crimean Bridge Activity: Continue to monitor traffic and security at the Crimean Bridge, assessing the cause of delays and any potential implications for RF logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
44. Engage on UN Ceasefire Proposal: Ukrainian diplomatic channels must immediately prepare a comprehensive response to the US proposal for a ceasefire agreement by August 8th, outlining conditions, redlines, and leveraging international support for a just peace. Incorporate Trump's statement of seeking peace by August 8th into diplomatic planning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
45. Address Humanitarian Situation in Occupied Areas: Develop and implement plans to address the severe humanitarian conditions in occupied territories, particularly water supply issues in Donetsk and the displacement of civilians and animals, aiming to provide support through international humanitarian organizations where possible. Publicly highlight RF's failure to provide basic services in occupied areas, as shown by the video of rainwater collection in Donetsk and humanitarian aid efforts in Kherson Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
46. Monitor Laotian-Russian Military Cooperation: Intensify ISR on the nature and scope of military training, joint exercises, and arms sales between Russia and Laos. Assess the long-term implications for regional stability and global power dynamics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
47. ISR on Polish/US Autonomous Boats: Initiate immediate ISR to gather detailed capabilities of the USVs, their operational role in Polish special operations, and specific areas of testing in the Baltic Sea, assessing the potential threat to RF naval assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
48. Assess Lyman - Zelenoye Pole Situation: Prioritize ISR and ground truth verification for the Krasny Liman - Zelenoye Pole area to accurately assess current frontlines, RF unit involvement, and tactical objectives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
49. Monitor RF Internal Media Crackdown: Continue to monitor the MVD's actions against independent journalists and media outlets, like Sota, to assess the extent of censorship and its impact on internal RF information flow and dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
50. Address RF Foreign Fighter Recruitment: Analyze the impact of Putin's new law allowing families of foreign fighters to apply for citizenship on RF's ability to recruit and retain foreign personnel, and develop counter-recruitment strategies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
51. Exploit RF Internal Social Tensions: Continue to monitor and, where feasible and ethical, exploit instances of social friction within Russia, such as the pensioner being fined in Ufa, to highlight internal discontent and undermine morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
52. Prioritize Drone Capabilities and Training: Actively support and prioritize units specializing in aerial and ground drones, ensuring they are adequately equipped and trained to create a qualitative advantage over enemy drones, thereby reducing infantry losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
53. Monitor Russian Government Social Support: Assess the impact and reach of new social support measures, such as the mortgage holiday bill for families with children, on Russian public sentiment and their effectiveness in alleviating social pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
54. Monitor and Counter Russian Information Control Legislation: Continue to monitor the implementation and enforcement of new Russian laws, such as fines for extremist searches, to understand their full impact on information access, freedom of expression, and internal dissent within Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
55. Address Mudslide at Georgian Border: Monitor the situation at the Verkhniy Lars border crossing for any lasting impact on Russian logistics or troop movements, especially given its importance as a Caucasus transit point. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
56. Counter RF Accusations on Ukrainian Children: Actively and publicly counter RF's accusations against Swedish media regarding the use of Ukrainian children in fake accusations, providing verifiable information about the forced deportation and abduction of Ukrainian children by RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
57. Monitor RF Digital Infrastructure Control: Closely monitor Roskomnadzor's actions to restrict internet tools like Speedtest Ookla, analyze the technical methods used, and develop countermeasures to maintain information access and internet freedom for Ukrainian citizens and allies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
58. Address Migrant Children in RF Schools: Ukrainian authorities should monitor the implications of RF's new law transferring information on migrant children in schools/colleges to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, especially for Ukrainian children displaced in RF, and ensure consular support if needed. **(CONFIDENCE: