Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 311437Z JUL 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide missile and UAV threat from RF persists. President Zelensky reports over 300 drones and 8 missiles launched by Russia overnight. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 291 enemy targets shot down/suppressed. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 288/309 strike UAVs shot down/suppressed and 3/8 Iskander-K missiles shot down. The discrepancy in total numbers (Zelensky vs. Air Force/Operatyvnyi ZSU) suggests some targets may have been suppressed rather than physically shot down, or different counting methodologies. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 317 aerial attack assets were engaged overnight and in the morning. ASTRA reports 5 direct missile hits and 21 drone hits overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kyiv Oblast: RF has conducted a ballistic missile strike on Kyiv, following a very high-volume Shahed UAV attack and previous ballistic/cruise missile strikes. KMA reports impacts on residential buildings in Sviatoshynskyi and Solomianskyi districts. Latest reporting indicates 11 confirmed fatalities (increased from 9), including 1 child, and 135 injured, including 12 children. Emergency services are conducting search and rescue. National Police confirm traffic is blocked on several streets. Klitschko reports police personnel among the injured, and that this attack saw the highest number of injured children since the start of the war in Kyiv. RF sources overtly celebrate attacks on "enemy capital" and mock Ukrainian air defenses, claiming Zhuliany Airport (Patriot SAM position and UAV assembly workshops) and industrial enterprises were targeted. Ukraine's Minister of Internal Affairs, Ihor Klimenko, is on-site at a destroyed building, providing updates on rescue operations, confirming individuals trapped. Approximately 10 individuals are reported missing from the destroyed building in Kyiv. Additionally, railway infrastructure in one of Kyiv's districts was damaged by the overnight attacks, leading to temporary use of diesel locomotives on the affected section; however, no casualties among passengers or railway workers were reported. New video footage shows moment of Shahed impact on residential building, and drone footage shows destroyed apartment block in Sviatoshynskyi. Minister Klimenko confirms Kyiv was likely attacked by "reactive Shaheds." Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms Kyiv was attacked by reactive Shaheds, citing Minister Klimenko. РБК-Україна confirms the number of injured in Kyiv has risen to 135, with the youngest victim being 5 months old. РБК-Україна reports a man trapped under rubble was rescued. KMA expresses fear over rising casualties and child victims, highlighting rescue efforts. STERNENKO reports the "Umma" mosque was damaged in Kyiv. Colonelcassad shares additional photos of night Kyiv during the combined strike, claiming military-industrial infrastructure was hit and reiterates interest in Zhuliany Airport. ASTRA confirms rescuers pulled a man from under the rubble. РБК-Україна confirms the death toll in Kyiv has increased to 9. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video confirming the discovery of the bodies of a mother and her six-year-year-old son under the rubble. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 6 dead and 52 injured in Kyiv from the massed combined attack (outdated). РБК-Україна reports DSNS aviation (helicopters with Bambi buckets) are involved in liquidating consequences of the strike in Kyiv. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 124 casualties in Kyiv due to enemy strikes, citing KMA. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) confirms 124 casualties in Kyiv. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports air raid alert has ended. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a girl surviving a fall from the 9th floor during the Kyiv attack. РБК-Україна also shares video of the girl's survival story. STERNENKO confirms 8 killed, 135 injured, 12 children injured in Kyiv, with 30 patients hospitalized (outdated fatality count). Олексій Білошицький shares bodycam footage from Kyiv patrol police from the first minutes after the attack, showing officers navigating debris, fire, and aiding civilians. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF struck Kyiv with Iskander-K missiles from Kursk Oblast, noting the short warning time. РБК-Україна reports 10 killed in Kyiv from the night attack. STERNENKO confirms 9 killed in Kyiv. Оперативний ЗСУ reports 11 killed in Kyiv. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 11 killed, including 1 child. РБК-Україна reports 11 killed. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports 11 killed (including 1 child), 135 injured as of 16:45. Kyiv has declared tomorrow, August 1st, a day of mourning. Военкор Котенок reports that British sources are complaining that reactive "Gerans" are much harder to shoot down than standard UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: КАBs inbound. RF conducted missile strike on a suburb of Kharkiv (Vasyshcheve), resulting in fires and 8 casualties, including rescue workers. RF sources claim powerful strike on UA Armed Forces warehouse in Kharkiv Oblast and advance towards the Kharkiv-Kupyansk road. Oleg Synyehubov confirms significant damage to civilian structures. 7 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were impacted by enemy strikes in the last 24 hours. Oleg Synyehubov shares video confirming ongoing rescue efforts at a damaged building, utilizing specialized equipment like a LUF CRV robot. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Krasne Pershe and Kamyanka in South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering an agent collecting data on Ukrainian military and critical infrastructure in Kharkiv. SBU (Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) confirmed an FSB agent was detained for adjusting RF shelling of Kharkiv's energy infrastructure. Oleg Synyehubov reports over 205 hectares of Kharkiv Oblast were demined in a week. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими conducted meetings with families of missing and captured servicemen in Roganska and Novopokrovska communities of Kharkiv Oblast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAVs on the north and east of Kharkiv Oblast, with means engaged for destruction. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides information on the situation in its operational zone, showing a photo of four silhouetted soldiers. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAV activity in the north and northwest of Kharkiv Oblast, with possible PPO engagement. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video showing Vovchansk reduced to ruins. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs inbound to Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk (Pokrovsk Axis): RF forces are the most actively advancing, with battles begun in Dimitrov (Myrnohrad) and improved RF positions in Rodinskoye. RF sources claim significant advancement towards Volodymyrivka, effectively "pinching" Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk. RF sources now claim assault units have entered the residential areas of Pokrovsk, establishing positions near the market, asserting approximately 5km of advance into the city center. Drone footage of Pokrovsk shows visible destruction. RF sources are using FPV drones of the "CENTRE" grouping against UA personnel in the battles for Dimitrov. RF MoD claims assault troops have seized fortified areas of the AFU on the approaches to Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). TASS claims RF forces advanced 1.5 km into AFU defenses near Zelenaya Dolina and advanced near Karpovka in DNR. "Операция Z" claims elimination of foreign mercenaries, including a US combatant, near Pokrovsk. TASS claims "South" group destroyed Western-produced equipment near Konstantinovka. Water supply to four cities in Donetsk Oblast will be reduced. Drone footage from "Birds of Madyar" (414th UAV Brigade) shows an RF soldier being hit by artillery/mortar fire on the Pokrovsk axis. New КАBs inbound reported by Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Popiv Yar, Fedorivka, Novoekonomichne, Promin, Lysivka, Zvirivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Horikhove, towards Boykivka, Novopavlivka, Pokrovsk, Rodynske, Chervonyy Lyman, Novoukrayinka, Dachne. Старше Эдды shares video of assault work near Pokrovsk. Colonelcassad shares a photo claiming a US mercenary was destroyed near Pokrovsk. Операция Z (Military Correspondents of Russian Spring) shares a video titled "Fierce battles near Pokrovsk: 'Otvazhnye' burn out equipment and personnel of the AFU," indicating continued intense fighting. Z комитет + карта СВО shares a tactical map of the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, showing claimed control areas. STERNENKO reports donations have not fallen, but needs have grown due to very high intensity of combat actions and a very difficult situation in Pokrovsk. Военкор Котенок shares a map of the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeyskoye) direction. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/TIEDOTТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) claims RF forces are advancing into Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, and the encirclement of Kupijansk is tightening. STERNENKO shares video footage of the 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade destroying enemy transport with fiber-optic drones. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports enemy DRGs operating deep in Pokrovsk, citing "Muochnyy." РБК-Україна reports a strike on the center of Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a destroyed residential building in the center of Kramatorsk after a Russian strike. Colonelcassad also reports a strike on Kramatorsk. Операция Z reports powerful strike on enemy objects in Kramatorsk. Военкор Котенок reports powerful explosions in Kramatorsk. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a photo of a strike on a residential building in Kramatorsk, with preliminary reports of casualties. РБК-Україна reports one killed and over 10 wounded in Kramatorsk, with half of a 5-story building destroyed. ASTRA confirms RF struck a residential building in Kramatorsk with casualties, including images of destruction. Народная милиция ДНР claims to have destroyed an Israeli-made AFU radar station near Druzhkivka. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs incoming to Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar Direction: RF MoD, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Операция Z, and Kotsnews all claim the complete liberation of Chasiv Yar by Russian forces after months of fighting. TASS reports RF forces destroyed the largest grouping of AFU in Chasiv Yar in the history of the SVO. First confirmed operational deployment of the Shipovnik-Aero mobile EW complex. 50% increase in Lancet strikes targeting UA artillery and logistics. UA drone successfully targeted RF SA-13 'Gopher' SAM system, a fortified position/dugout, and a 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer. RF footage from Mash na Donbashe and Colonelcassad shows Russian flags raised on buildings in Chasiv Yar (Ognuporny Plant, Levanevsky, Shevchenko, and Pivdennyi microdistricts) and claims the city is under RF control. TASS reports that after the loss of Chasiv Yar, Ukrainian defenses on the Kostiantynivka direction have effectively collapsed (Kymakovsky). DeepState map contradicts RF claims, showing the southern part of the city is not under Russian control. TASS claims RF forces evacuated a large part of Chasiv Yar's population. Воин DV publishes a video titled "Chasiv Yar has fallen!" showing drone footage of destruction. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition repeats the claim of Chasiv Yar's liberation, stating it was one of the longest and hardest battles, with the city now offering direct line of sight to Konstantinovka and Druzhkovka. Alex Parker Returns also claims Chasiv Yar liberated after almost two years of bloody battles, with Russian flags raised and VDV units making the main contribution and states that after Pokrovsk is liberated, all fighting will move north for the last large Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. Басурин о главном shares video of damaged buildings and Russian flags, implying control of a disputed area. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Chasiv Yar, Minkivka, Novomarkove and towards Bondarne, Predtechyne. TASS (Alausdinov) asserts that with the liberation of Chasiv Yar, the entire Ukrainian defensive system in this direction has been breached and provides a good springboard for further advances. РБК-Україна reports that OSUV "Khortytsia" spokesman Trehubov refuted Russian claims of capturing Chasiv Yar. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms Trehubov's refutation. TASS reports that the liberation of Chasiv Yar will accelerate the withdrawal of the enemy from Konstantinovka and Druzhkovka, where the situation is critical for the AFU. Kotsnews reiterates "Chasiv Yar - ours!" TASS confirms Belousov congratulated VDV units for their actions in liberating Chasiv Yar. ASTRA reports RF MoD announced capture of Chasiv Yar, while AFU refuted it. Рыбарь and Военкор Котенок publish videos claiming to show "successes" and "liberation" of Chasiv Yar, showing destroyed areas with Russian flags. TASS reports Kymakovsky's statement that the "liberation" of Chasiv Yar has limited AFU's retreat possibilities to major cities in the Konstantinovka direction. Басурин о главном reports Belousov congratulated VDV units for their actions in liberating Chasiv Yar. MoD Russia congratulates airborne formation servicemen for liberating Chasiv Yar. Kotsnews shares new drone footage titled "How Koptevo and Novotoretskoe were taken," showing sustained combat operations in the area. Два майора shares a tactical map and photos claiming "successes" in Chasiv Yar. MoD Russia shares video of paratroopers raising Russian and Airborne Troops flags in Shevchenko and Yuzhny neighborhoods of Chasiv Yar, claiming liberation. Операция Z shares a video titled "Часов Яр наш: ВДВ водрузили флаги России и "крылатой пехоты" над освобождённым городом" (Chasiv Yar is ours: VDV hoisted the flags of Russia and "winged infantry" over the liberated city). ТАСС shares a photo of a destroyed monument in what appears to be Chasiv Yar, with a caption claiming the "liberation of Chasiv Yar opens the way to key cities of Donbas," quoting Sergei Mironov. DeepState directly refutes the RF claims, stating "The enemy did not occupy Chasiv Yar, but only conducted another 'flag-waving' action behind the lines of the Defense Forces." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video and photos of this DeepState refutation, labeling the RF action as a "performance" with flags. РБК-Україна also shares photos regarding the refutation of Chasiv Yar capture. Colonelcassad reports that the enemy (UA) confirms the factual loss of Chasiv Yar, but claims to retain a localized presence in the private sector west of the outskirts, comparing it to the situation in Artemovsk (Bakhmut). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video titled "The city came under the control of the Russian Federation. What's next?", featuring a military speaker who states that Chasiv Yar has been transformed into a heavily fortified area, but is now under Russian control, and that the next step will be creating a staging ground for an offensive on the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. Colonelcassad provides photo and video messages on "Successes in Chasiv Yar" showing destroyed buildings and military personnel in what appears to be the city. TASS reports that the AFU has withdrawn their surviving grouping from Chasiv Yar to Konstantinovka, citing Russian security forces. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - RF claims highly propagandistic and directly refuted by UA sources. RF "flag-waving" likely occurred in already occupied ruins, not the city center or areas under UA control. The latest RF claim of UA confirmation is unverified.)
  • Siversk Direction: 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade (10th OGShBr) successfully repelled an enemy assault, destroying 13 motorcycles. TASS reports RF forces destroyed a Ukrainian defensive line near Serebryanka in DNR and are flanking entrenched enemy units. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Serebryanka, Vyyimka, Zvanivka and Fedorivka. Colonelcassad reports on the situation in the Torskoye area (Krasnolimansk direction). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy Oblast: Russians continue to assault with small infantry groups. Enemy UAVs detected in Chernihiv Oblast moving towards Sumy Oblast. KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. Russia struck Sumy Oblast administration building for the third time in three days. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a likely reconnaissance UAV detected between Lypova Dolyna and Nedryhailiv in Sumy Oblast, with means engaged for its destruction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on Ussuri paratroopers operating from the Sumy direction, indicating continued RF presence/activity. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАBs inbound to Sumy Oblast. Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces repelled 32 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. TASS shares a video claiming "Geran-2" and "Lancet" of the RF Armed Forces inflicted fire damage on the AFU in Sumy Oblast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAV north of Sumy, with possible PPO engagement. Два майора shares a video claiming ZALA Z-16 drones provided targeting for MLRS during the destruction of an ammunition depot in Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB inbound to Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RF KABs confirmed inbound. RF is conducting an active campaign to recruit local residents for service in occupation forces. RF sources claim UA shelling of a children's playground in Vasilyevka, injuring two children, later updated to three. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports continued RF attacks on civilian infrastructure in Orikhiv, Hulyaypole, and Kamianske. RF 7th Airborne Division appealing for drone and Starlink donations due to enemy EW. New reporting from Operatyvnyi ZSU and ASTRA confirms 2 casualties in Zaporizhzhia region from a Russian attack: a 17-year-old boy and a 64-year-old woman injured in Zaporizhzhia district. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Bilohirya of Zaporizhzhia region. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Plavni in Orikhiv direction, and near Malynivka in Huliaipole direction. MoD Russia claims a Msta-B howitzer crew of the Dnepr Group of Forces destroyed an electronic warfare station and eliminated up to five AFU troops in Zaporozhye region. Два майора shares a video titled "Zaporozhye front" showing tactical activities, likely RF. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by RF tactical aviation on the border of Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Colonelcassad claims UA acknowledges the loss of Kamyansk (Kamianske) and fighting in Plavni and Stepnohirsk. Сили оборони Півдня України explicitly refutes RF claims of capturing Kamianske. Воин DV shares video of 305th Artillery Brigade destroying AFU positions near Olhivske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Spokesman of the Defense Forces of the South, Colonel Vladislav Voloshin, just refuted Russian statements about the occupation of Kamianske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, emphasizing enemy did not capture it. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 announces new partnership between Energodar and Kaharlyk, indicating internal administrative activity regarding occupied/partner cities. Zelenskiy / Official reports another cynical RF attack two days ago on a prison in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, using aerial bombs, killing 16 and wounding 43. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues a warning ("УВАГА🚨") at 10:05Z. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports air raid alert ended. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports air raid alert has ended. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on a collaborator deputy in Zaporizhzhia who transferred nearly 24,000 tons of harvest to RF, causing over 56 million UAH in damages. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 thanks Ukrainian Armed Forces for holding the defense. DeepState indicates occupation of Kam'yans'ke, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports almost 700 hectares of grain destroyed by fires from enemy shelling in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, but the region will have enough bread. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on 150M UAH damages from corruption in Zaporizhzhia and Transcarpathia. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Conflicting reports on Kamianske)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): Enemy attacked Nikopolshchyna with FPV drones and artillery. Воин DV claims 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade destroyed a UA armored vehicle and truck in Dibrova and Novoselovka. New group of strike UAVs detected heading northwest. Explosions reported in Samara, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian PPO reports destroying 15 enemy drones in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Serhiy Lysak, Head of Dnipropetrovsk OVA, confirms region was hit by rocket/drone strikes overnight, including agricultural and transport enterprises in Pavlohrad district. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of aviation weapon use in Sinelnikovskiy district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by RF tactical aviation on the border of Donetsk, Dnipropetropik and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming an Iskander-M strike on a tuberculosis dispensary in Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on July 29, 2025. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) shares photo messages regarding the transfer of military equipment to Ukrainian forces in Kryvyi Rih. Олександр Вілкул also shares photo messages about large shipments of aid for over 30 units from Kryvyi Rih to the front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson Oblast: Ukrainian engineering troops have cleared nearly 3,000 hectares of mines. RF forces dropping flags onto a railway bridge near Kherson from a drone, likely a psychological operation. Два майора share a video titled "Kherson direction," showing drone footage of a destroyed building and a wireframe structure "Oduvanchik" (Dandelion) designed for passive protection of armored vehicles from drones. Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces repelled 5 Russian army assaults in Kherson direction. Два майора shares a video from the Governor of Kherson Oblast, which appears to be drone footage of a residential area with fires/explosions. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video showing drone targeting and strike sequences, including 'Kherson direction' text overlay, confirming active combat. Президентська бригада ЗСУ shares a video of a drone strike on a Russian trench system. Mash на Донбассе reports two fatalities and one severely injured person from a road accident in Ilovaisk, involving civilian and military personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Threat of enemy strike UAVs from the south. Shahed UAVs reported heading north-northeast. UA reports a household building caught fire in Kremenchuk district due to falling enemy UAV debris. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Western Ukraine: Air raid alert due to strike UAVs gradually spreading to Western Ukraine. Shaheds are now reported to be moving towards / through Zhytomyr Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kryvyi Rih: Situation reported as controlled. Alex Parker Returns posts about a driver hitting a UA veteran in Kryvyi Rih, framing it positively, indicating internal security/morale issues being exploited by RF. Олександр Вілкул reports on a meeting of the regional staff on preparing for the heating season in Kryvyi Rih, indicating administrative efforts to maintain civilian infrastructure. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) shares photo messages regarding the transfer of military equipment to Ukrainian forces in Kryvyi Rih. Олександр Вілкул also shares photo messages about large shipments of aid for over 30 units from Kryvyi Rih to the front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pavlohrad Interest: Colonelcassad reports a large-scale fire at Pavlohrad railway junction (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) after a combined missile and drone strike overnight, labeling it "one of the largest logistics hubs" for Ukrainian formations. This confirms previous indications of RF interest in Pavlohrad. Shahed Hayabusa confirms agricultural and transport enterprises in Pavlohrad district were hit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia:
  • Belgorod Oblast: Residents of Krasnoyaruzhsky district will be evicted from temporary accommodation points starting August 1st, despite ongoing shelling. Ministry of Defense reports 13 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Rostov and Belgorod Oblasts. TASS reports 169 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over the last day, an increase from previous reports. Два майора reports on a significant fire at a building in Belgorod Oblast, with smoke visible. AV БогомаZ reports a civilian injured by Ukrainian attacks. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports enemy UAV shot down on approach to Belgorod city. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Bryansk Oblast: Video shows an explosion on a body of water, possibly a mine or artillery impact, claimed to be in Bryansk Oblast. Drone security reported. Два майора reports UA drone attack on Sluchevsk village, Pogarsky district, resulting in injury to a civilian. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov Oblast: Ministry of Defense reports 13 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Rostov and Belgorod Oblasts. 5 UAVs destroyed in Rostov Oblast, causing a forest fire from falling debris. Fighterbomber reports the military commissariat of Leninsky and Kirovsky districts of Rostov-on-Don invites volunteers to conclude a contract with the RF Ministry of Defense, indicating continued recruitment efforts. TASS reports 169 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over the last day. Mash на Донбассе reports border crossing points are closed in Rostov Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volgograd Oblast: Restrictions on aircraft reception and departure were imposed at Volgograd Airport by Rosaviatsia, then lifted. A massive UAV attack was repelled, disrupting gas supply to 65 private homes and train movement on Kotelnikovo-Kanalnaya section due to UAV debris fall on railway infrastructure. A large fire reported in Kotelnikovo after UAV attack. TASS reports train movement in Volgograd Oblast, delayed due to UAV debris on railway tracks, has been resumed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Saratov Airport: Temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure imposed. TASS confirms restrictions at Saratov airport were lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Penza Oblast: Drone attacks reported on a factory, identified by Ukrainian sources as Penza Radio Plant (part of Rostec). RF sources distribute video of a large explosion and fire, describing it as an an attack on an enterprise. Information from STERNENKO and ASTRA confirms the target was Penza Radio Plant ("EVT named after V.A. Revunov"), which produces computing equipment for the RF Ministry of Defense. Video evidence from ASTRA shows smoke rising, and local residents claiming drones were flying directly at the VEM plant. TASS reports public transport movement suspended in Penza during "Air Danger" regime, now cancelled, with public transport resuming. ASTRA analysis confirms the fire in Penza was in the area of two local factories after a UAV attack, and residents complained about closed shelters. Военкор Котенок confirms a drone attack on an industrial facility in Penza, resulting in a fire, citing Governor Oleg Melnichenko. Север.Реалии also reports a fire at an industrial enterprise in Penza after drone attacks. ASTRA shares video of the drone attack in Penza. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports SBU drones hit the plant in Penza. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms SBU drones hit the radioelectronics plant in Penza. РБК-Україна also reports SBU drones hit the Penza radioelectronics plant. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports at least two hits on Penza Radio Plant, one with a "Batyr" type UAV. Alex Parker Returns shares a video titled "Пенза. Хохлы атаковали радиозавод и еще один завод рядом." (Penza. Khokhols attacked a radio factory and another factory nearby), confirming the target. ASTRA states at least 2 UAVs hit Penza Radio Plant, based on analysis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vladimir Oblast: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports another drone found in Vladimir Oblast, indicating a wider range of Ukrainian UAV operations or failed RF attempts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kamchatka Region: Nine earthquakes (M4.2-M5.5) occurred within an hour, indicating ongoing seismic activity. Minimal ecological consequences reported, but aftershocks expected for months. Ash emission from Klyuchevskoy volcano. TASS reports 8 earthquakes near Kamchatka coast within an hour. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Balashikha, Moscow Oblast: TASS reports a five-story residential building is on fire in Balashikha, Moscow Oblast, on 400 sq. meters, with one fatality. ASTRA shares a video confirming the fire. TASS reports firefighters rescued two people and evacuated 90. TASS reports the deceased individual was found in the apartment where the fire started. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Lipetsk Oblast: Igor Artamonov (governor of Lipetsk Oblast) reports new resident "Shchelkovo Agrokhim" in Lipetsk special economic zone, signing agreement with General Director Salis Karakotov. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - economic development unrelated to conflict)
  • Internal Security: FSB detained teenagers allegedly involved in railway arsons. Ministry of Education and Science official detained for embezzlement. Russian Federal Air Transport Agency annulled the certificate of Irkutsk airline "Angara" for aircraft maintenance. One of the leaders of the banned RDK, Kiryushchenko, заочно arrested on terrorism charges. Mobilized serviceman convicted for attempting to retrieve drugs. RF war participant stole a family heirloom for alcohol. Former Sochi mayor accused of embezzlement. A minor planned to set fire to relay cabinets in Krasnoyarsk for money. Police in Khabarovsk Krai reported on a law enforcement operation, likely internal security. New RF legislation coming into effect in August includes measures for expelling foreigners involved in pre-election campaigning. TASS reports Moscow City Court sentenced a married couple to 15 and 17 years in prison for collecting data on military personnel, as reported by the FSB. Sever.Realii comments on this, stating "Now the entire community of Russians (residents of Russia) can be safely declared extremist." TASS shares video footage of the sentencing of a couple accused of collecting data for Ukrainian military intelligence. Alex Parker Returns comments on the Crocus attack, stating experts concluded the perpetrators were manipulated for money, not ideological reasons. TASS reports a project on establishing unified days of free parking in Russia will be submitted to the State Duma. Sever.Realii reports a Leningrad Oblast legislative assembly deputy was arrested for seven days for a post with a portrait of Alexei Navalny, indicating continued political repression. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a convicted serviceman was accused of rape. Два майора reports FSB and Interior Ministry detained the head of the State Traffic Inspectorate in Lyskovsky district, Nizhny Novgorod region (internal corruption). Север.Реалии reports Sergey Chemezov has a "dacha cooperative" in Dubai (potential corruption/elite behavior). WarGonzo reports a young man was detained in Buryatia for arsons at the behest of Ukraine, indicating continued RF presence/activity. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on 31 bodies of liquidated Russian servicemen being delivered to Tuva, with relatives waiting for hours at the morgue, highlighting poor treatment of casualties and internal discontent. Операция Z reports on a teenager arrested in Ufa for collecting data for Ukraine and preparing arson. Север.Реалии reports on an arrest in St. Petersburg for arson of a bank office. TASS reports Roskomnadzor received an appeal from Shaman and will consider it, indicating internal censorship/control mechanisms. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a mobilized invalid was given a ruined apartment in Yakutia. ASTRA reports a student from Krasnoyarsk was sent to pre-trial detention for setting fire to relay cabinets on the railway. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares video on the arrest of a saboteur in Ufa. TASS reports МВД РФ warning citizens about increased scams alleging sponsorship of crime. Полиция Хабаровского края is investigating a pepper spray incident. TASS reports that the head of Crimea, Aksyonov, signed a decree restricting 48 positions for foreign labor, leaving only construction and tourism permitted, indicating tightening labor/migration policies. Sever.Realii reports the director of the Moscow Art Theatre, Kekhman, is suspected of receiving a 27 million ruble bribe. TASS reports Ilya Timofeev, former head of the utilization service of the RF Ministry of Defense's Main Armored Directorate, was sentenced to 9 years in prison for bribery. Два майора reiterates the sentencing of Ilya Timofeev for bribery. ASTRA reports regional officials are recommended to switch to the Max messenger from August, indicating internal digital control efforts. Colonelcassad shares a video of the detention of a man from Saksky district, Crimea, accused of supporting the AFU, denying Crimean territorial integrity, using derogatory terms for Russians, and proclaiming Nazi slogans. This indicates continued RF internal repression against perceived dissent in occupied territories. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on the detention of a former state employee who helped the enemy target a strategic enterprise. TASS reports an 18-year-old resident of Mariupol was sentenced to seven years for collecting data on RF Armed Forces for Ukrainian special services. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports children of a deceased serviceman in Irkutsk Oblast are not receiving payments, indicating internal issues with social support. TASS reports Putin signed a law on fines for intentional search of extremist materials and VPN advertising. TASS reports Putin signed a law recognizing VPN use as an aggravating circumstance for crimes. Colonelcassad comments on the new VPN law. ASTRA reports a photographer from Sevastopol was sentenced to 22 years in prison for allegedly causing an explosion in a house where a military officer lived. ASTRA reports on new Putin-signed laws, including fines for searching "extremist" information and for using VPNs. Kotsnews raises concerns about a lawsuit against Saponkov, a military blogger/volunteer, expressing hope it's not "human stupidity." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Occupied Luhansk: Video depicting a street scene shows significant litter and neglect. Large queue of civilians outside Luhansk Republican Clinical Hospital. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Russian authorities failed to organize water supply for Donbas residents, with private companies prohibited from raising prices above 3.50 rubles per liter, leading to no water delivery from either occupation administration or private companies, accusing Russians of completely ruining the water supply over 11 years and embezzling funds for pipelines. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС also reports a junior sergeant of RF Armed Forces, Daria Trofimova "Belka," drone operator, was liquidated in Luhansk Oblast while delivering FPV drones under the guise of humanitarian aid. Mash на Донбассе shares a video titled "Вот вам водные лайфхаки от жителей Донецка. Получите, распишитесь." (Here are water lifehacks from Donetsk residents. Take it, sign for it.), showing a makeshift rainwater collection system, indicating ongoing water supply issues in occupied territories. Народная милиция ДНР reports on humanitarian aid from Moscow for Donbas, including medical supplies, food, and PPE, delivered by "Geography of the Heart" and "Interbrigady." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vostochny Cosmodrome: TASS reports anti-terrorist exercises were held at Vostochny Cosmodrome. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • California, USA: Colonelcassad reports an F-35 fighter jet crashed in California near Lemoore Naval Air Station, identified as Fresno County, with significant fire and smoke. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports an F-35 crash near Lemoore Air Base. TASS confirms the F-35 crash in California, pilot ejected. Операция Z shares video titled "Self-destruction of US Air Force F-35C super fighter for $100 million," attempting to exploit the event for propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • United Kingdom: Poddugny reports that a second batch of nuclear weapons was delivered to the UK from the US on July 29, citing Nukewatch UK. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - RF propaganda outlet, unverified claim)
  • Myanmar: ASTRA reports Myanmar authorities lifted martial law after 4.5 years. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Economy: News from Moscow reports "Russians have become richer." TASS reports car dealerships are closing points and refusing contracts due to weak demand. Новости Москвы reports chicken prices increased by 18% in a year, and the Lada Iskra will not include air conditioning as "not all Russians need it." TASS reports Davankov proposed extending the preferential period for charging electric vehicles by three years. Новости Москвы reports school supply costs for children will be 17,925 rubles this year. TASS reports the Central Bank is working on terms for ending Visa and Mastercard services in Russia. TASS reports Patrushev claims Western countries are discussing state-level legalization of piracy, an attempt to frame the West negatively. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - Propagandistic claim mixed with economic indicators). Новости Москвы forecasts "stuffy nights" in Moscow for the rest of the week (weather). Новости Москвы shares a video of a thunderstorm in Moscow. TASS reports Bank of Russia established quantitative limits on mortgages for individual housing construction for the first time. This indicates a tightening of monetary policy potentially to curb inflation or cool the housing market. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the information about a possible data leak from Aeroflot has not been confirmed. TASS reports Putin signed a law allowing investigators and interrogators to suspend financial transactions for up to 10 days. TASS reports new duties for state services and increases in existing ones will be introduced in RF. РБК-Україна reports the dollar has fallen and the euro has fallen below 48 hryvnias. TASS reports 40 million rubles were collected from Oleg Tinkov in favor of Oleg Deripaska as compensation for moral damages, indicating a significant legal/financial development involving prominent Russian figures. TASS reports Putin signed a law on regulating installment services. Новости Москвы reports Putin signed law allowing tax authorities to collect debts without court order if no dispute exists. TASS reports that a registry of digital platforms, including marketplaces, will be created in the Russian Federation following a law signed by Putin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Iran: TASS reports Aeroflot will resume flights from Moscow to Tehran in August. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Belarus: Филолог в засаде reports on active work by Polish and Ukrainian special services in Belarus, claiming it as a point of no return after a UAV incident. TASS reports Lukashenka stated Russia is a guarantor of security for Belarus, and that without RF support, Belarus would be "face-to-face with NATO." (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF propaganda claim)
  • Nagorno-Karabakh: Военкор Котенок shares videos and photos, including an image of a destroyed monument to Aivazovsky, claiming Azerbaijani authorities are destroying cultural heritage in Artsakh. Два майора shares a photo of a destroyed monument to Ivan Aivazovsky in Khankendi (Stepanakert), confirming cultural destruction by Azerbaijani authorities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • China: TASS reports a 3-year-old boy survived an 18-story fall, landing on a tree, in China. TASS reports Putin is holding talks with Laotian President Thongloun Sisoulith, and shows video of the meeting. Новости Москвы confirms the video depicts a formal meeting between officials from Laos and Russia. TASS reports that the Russian Federation plans to establish railway transportation to Laos via China, as stated by Putin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - unrelated to conflict)
  • Saudi Arabia: TASS reports an amusement ride collapsed in Saudi Arabia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - unrelated to conflict)
  • Moldova: TASS reports Moldovan President Sandu called on migrants abroad to register for upcoming parliamentary elections by August 14, without mentioning those in Russia, potentially highlighting a subtle diplomatic point. TASS reports Moldova intends to solve the Transnistrian problem only after the withdrawal of the Russian Operational Group of Forces from the unrecognized republic, as stated by Sandu. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Estonia: TASS reports Estonia does not plan to recognize Palestine, as stated by Prime Minister Kristen Michal, indicating a diplomatic stance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Nicaragua: Операция Z claims Nicaragua officially recognized new territories of Ukraine as part of Russia. Colonelcassad reiterates this claim, specifically listing the Donetsk People's Republic, Luhansk People's Republic, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and Kherson Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Nicaragua has recognized the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions as parts of the Russian Federation. TASS reports that Russia highly values Nicaragua's decision to recognize the DPR, LPR, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions as part of the Russian Federation, as stated by Medvedev. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - While Russian and Ukrainian sources report this, it is an isolated diplomatic event and its international legal standing remains unverified and widely challenged.)
  • India: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Indian state-owned oil refineries are suspending purchases of Russian oil amid Trump's customs threats, citing Reuters. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a photo message reporting that Indian oil refineries have begun actively seeking alternatives to Russian oil after increased EU sanctions against Russia, citing Bloomberg. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Syria: Операция Z shares a video and caption that Lavrov met with the Syrian Foreign Minister to discuss cooperation and normalization. TASS also reports Belousov met with the Minister of Defense of the Syrian transitional government. MoD Russia confirms Defence Minister Andrei Belousov held a meeting with Defence Minister of the transitional government of the Syrian Arab Republic Major General Murhaf Abu Qasra in Moscow. Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message and caption about Belousov meeting his Syrian counterpart, stating "There are many common topics. After all, they fought together for about 10 years." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • TikTok (Global): TASS reports messages about a leak of 250,000 lines of email, usernames, and user IDs of TikTok users from Russia were found online, though experts note many emails don't match platform accounts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • BRICS: TASS reports Peskov stated BRICS work is not oriented against other countries, responding to a question about Trump's threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • High-Speed Rail (RF): TASS reports Putin ordered a model for high-speed rail network development by March 31, 2026. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - internal development unrelated to conflict)
  • Crimean Bridge: TASS reports that the number of cars in queues approaching the Crimean Bridge has exceeded 1,200. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Kharkiv Oblast: Continued RF strikes cause fires and damage. Synyehubov warns of impending severe weather. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video confirms Vovchansk is in ruins. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Donetsk/Luhansk (Occupied): Ongoing fires in fields, likely due to shelling. Video from Luhansk shows significant debris and neglect. Water supply issues in four Donetsk cities. Mash na Donbashe video shows dispute over water supply issues in Donetsk, indicating ongoing utility concerns. Mash на Донбассе reports an invasion of locusts/grasshoppers in Donetsk. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Russian authorities completely failed to organize water supply for Donbas residents, and local private companies are prohibited from raising water prices, leading to no water delivery. Mash на Донбассе shares a video demonstrating a makeshift rainwater collection system for laundry in Makeevka, confirming severe water supply issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• General Conditions: Continued operations in adverse weather conditions (rain affecting visibility). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kamchatka (RF Far East): Nine earthquakes (M4.2-M5.5) could impact infrastructure and resource allocation. Aftershocks expected for months. Ash emission from Klyuchevskoy volcano. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kherson Direction: "Два майора" mentions "strong wind" during drone footage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kotelnikovo (RF): Large fire observed after UAV attack, impacting railway and gas supply. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Rostov Oblast (RF): Falling debris from destroyed UAVs caused a forest fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Penza (RF): Plume of dark smoke rising from a drone strike on Penza Radio Plant. Large explosion and fire confirmed. Public transport suspended due to "Air Danger" regime. Residents complained about closed shelters. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kremenchuk Raion: UA reports a household building caught fire due to falling enemy UAV debris. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kyiv Oblast: Night photos show aftermath of attack in residential/semi-rural area. Large plume of smoke and flames rising from Kyiv. Damage to railway infrastructure reported. Zelenskiy confirms damage to residential infrastructure, including a destroyed apartment entrance. Klitschko video shows significant destruction to residential building, with debris and damaged vehicles. Klimenko confirms direct impact on 5th floor of building in Kyiv. STERNENKO confirms damage to the "Umma" mosque. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares video of the aftermath in Kyiv, showing the scale of destruction. РБК-Україна reports DSNS aviation is involved in consequence liquidation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares photos of the rescue of a man from under the rubble in Kyiv. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and РБК-Україна share video of a girl surviving a fall from the 9th floor onto a mattress in Kyiv. Олексій Білошицький shares bodycam footage of Kyiv patrol police operating in fire and debris, indicating ongoing hazards. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of destruction and rescue efforts in Kyiv, showing excavators and rescue dogs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Pavlohrad: Large-scale fire at railway junction after combined missile/drone strike indicates significant environmental impact and disruption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Belgorod Oblast (RF): Significant fire at a building reported by Два майора. AV БогомаZ reports a civilian injured by Ukrainian attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Balashikha, Moscow Oblast (RF): TASS reports a five-story residential building is on fire, with thick black smoke billowing, and one fatality. ASTRA shares a video confirming the fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Moscow (RF): Новости Москвы reports thunderstorms and strong winds are expected in Moscow until 20:00. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kramatorsk: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a destroyed residential building in the center of Kramatorsk after a Russian strike, indicating significant urban destruction. Операция Z reports large smoke plume from hit objects in Kramatorsk. Военкор Котенок reports explosions in Kramatorsk. Оперативний ЗСУ photo shows damage to residential building. РБК-Україна reports half of a 5-story building destroyed. ASTRA videos and photos show smoke plumes and destruction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports almost 700 hectares of grain destroyed by fires from enemy shelling, indicating significant agricultural damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF Force Dispositions:
  • Air Assets: RF continues KAB launches on Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Sumy Oblasts. New groups of strike UAVs (Shaheds) identified in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts moving south, and a group in Chernihiv Oblast moving north towards Kyiv. Strike UAVs also detected spreading towards Western Ukraine and in Kirovohrad Oblast. A new group of Shaheds detected in Dnipropetrovsk heading northwest. RF is actively using FPV drones in Dnipropetrovsk (Nikopolshchyna) and Chasiv Yar directions. RF FAB-1500 strike reported in Kupyansk. A very high volume of Shaheds recently converged on/over Kyiv from multiple directions, followed by ballistic and cruise missile threats. First rockets entered Kyiv via Brovary, with explosions confirmed from cruise missiles, followed by a confirmed ballistic missile strike. TASS reports 13 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Rostov and Belgorod Oblasts, and 5 over Rostov alone. TASS and Colonelcassad report 32 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions and annexed Crimea overnight. UA reports 15 enemy drones destroyed by PPO in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 explicitly claims Zhuliany Airport (Kyiv) was under a massive RF attack. Poddubny claims impacts near Zhuliany Airport (Patriot SAM position and UAV assembly workshops) and industrial enterprises working for AFU in Kyiv. RF sources confirm a combined missile-drone strike on Pavlohrad railway junction. RF MoD claims 44 UAV control points and 28 drones destroyed by "Zapad" Grouping. Zelenskiy reports over 300 drones and 8 missiles launched by RF overnight. WarGonzo claims mass use of "reactive Gerans" in Kyiv attack. Minister Klimenko indicates "reactive Shaheds" were likely used in Kyiv attack. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 288/309 strike UAVs and 3/8 Iskander-K missiles shot down/suppressed. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 317 aerial attack assets were engaged overnight and in the morning. ASTRA reports 5 direct missile hits and 21 drone hits overnight. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeat KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast. TASS claims "Geran-2" and "Lancet" inflicted fire damage on AFU in Sumy Oblast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAVs on the north and east of Kharkiv Oblast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by RF tactical aviation on the border of Donetsk, Dnipropetropik and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Fighterbomber shares video of a Ka-52 helicopter passing and firing flares, indicating continued rotary-wing air activity. MoD Russia claims a group strike by long-range precision weaponry and UAVs at Ukrainian defence industry enterprises, infrastructure of a military airfield, ammunition depot, missile weaponry depot, and UAV components depot. TASS reports 169 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over the last day. Два майора reports on ZALA Z-16 reconnaissance of an ammunition depot in Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad reports an Azerbaijani mercenary observing "Geran" (Shahed) strikes in Kyiv overnight, possibly an attempt to legitimize RF targets or link to broader regional conflict. MoD Russia issues a progress report on the "special military operation" as of 31 July 2025, confirming continued operations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS cites Ignat saying RF used up to 8 reactive UAVs in today's attack. НгП раZVедка shares photos on night strikes on enemy infrastructure. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports RF drone strike on railway traction substation and signaling station. KMVA reports air raid alert in Kyiv due to MiG-31K. AFU Air Force issues a warning about MiG-31K. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm nationwide missile danger due to MiG-31K. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues an air raid warning. STERNENKO reports MiG-31K lift-off. Alex Parker Returns shares a video titled "Пенза. Хохлы атаковали радиозавод и еще один завод рядом." (Penza. Khokhols attacked a radio factory and another factory nearby), confirming the target and showing aerial footage. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming an Iskander-M strike on a tuberculosis dispensary in Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. РБК-Україна and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report a strike on Kramatorsk, with ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirming a destroyed residential building. Colonelcassad also reports a strike on Kramatorsk. Операция Z reports powerful strike on enemy objects in Kramatorsk. Военкор Котенок reports powerful explosions in Kramatorsk. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB inbound to Sumy. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports another drone found in Vladimir Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF struck Kyiv with Iskander-K from Kursk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs incoming to Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports PVO systems shot down enemy UAV near Belgorod. Военкор Котенок shares photo messages claiming that British sources are complaining that reactive "Gerans" (UAVs) that arrived at Kyiv's Zhuliany airport last night are much harder to shoot down than standard UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Forces: Persistent offensive pressure on the Pokrovsk axis, with claimed advancements into residential areas of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk). RF small infantry group assaults in Sumy Oblast. RF Special Forces "AKHMAT" Group "Bati" operating in Kharkiv direction, with 44th Army Corps assault detachments conducting demining. RF VDV units appealing for drone and Starlink donations due to UA EW. 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade reportedly destroyed a UA armored vehicle and truck in Dibrova and Novoselovka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). "Операция Z" claims Russian forces eliminated a group of foreign mercenaries, including a US combatant, near Pokrovsk. TASS claims "South" group destroyed Western-produced equipment near Konstantinovka. TASS reports RF forces advancing on Kharkiv sector, striking UA in five settlements, and taking control of 1km of highway near Kupyansk. TASS claims RF forces advanced 1.5 km into AFU defenses near Zelenaya Dolina and advanced near Karpovka in DNR. RF MoD claims to have liberated Chasiv Yar, with TASS reporting destruction of the largest AFU grouping there. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition explicitly states the liberation of Chasiv Yar. Alex Parker Returns also claims Chasiv Yar liberation by paratroopers, and that after Pokrovsk is liberated, all fighting will move north for the last large Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. TASS reports that 18 foreign mercenaries fighting for Ukraine have been identified in the last two weeks, and charges have been filed against them in absentia. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Kindrashivka, Zahryzove and towards Kupyansk. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Karpivka, Novyy Myr, Ridkodub, Yampolivka, Dibriv and towards Dronivka, Shandryholove, Olhivka, Yampil in Lyman direction. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Toretsk, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Scherbynivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove, towards Stepanivka, Bila Hora and Pleschiyivka. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Zaporizhzhya, Komar, Perebudova, Piddubne, Maliyivka, Fedorivka, Shevchenko, Novopil in Novopavlivka direction. MoD Russia shares video of Giatsint-S howitzer crews of the Zapad Group's 25th Combined Arms Army wiping out concealed strongholds, UAV command posts, and manpower of the AFU units in the Lugansk People's Republic. Z комитет + карта СВО shows a tactical map of the Yuzhno-Donetskoye direction, specifically highlighting Novokhatske, indicating areas of control and fortifications. Сливочный каприз shares a map of the Krasnyy Liman - Torskoye area as of July 31. Народная милиция ДНР shares a video of a night ambush on a Ukrainian pickup truck by 56th Separate Special Purpose Brigade. MoD Russia claims an artillery crew destroyed an EW station and eliminated up to five AFU troops in Zaporozhye region. Z комитет + карта СВО shares multiple images of a tactical map of #Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), depicting claimed advancements and control. «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» shares a video featuring Akhmat battalion personnel and military equipment, suggesting ongoing operations. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video on "Tactical Medicine on Water" for naval special forces, indicating training and sustainment efforts. Воин DV shares video of 305th Artillery Brigade destroying AFU positions near Olhivske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. TASS video shows units of Ivanovo, Kostroma, and Yaroslavl paratroopers "liberating" Chasiv Yar, claiming over 20km advanced under continuous UA artillery and UAV fire. Рыбарь shares photos and videos claiming "successes" in Chasiv Yar, showing destroyed areas with Russian flags. Военкор Котенок shares video from Chasiv Yar, confirming it is "under our control." Басурин о главном shows a photo of RF Defense Minister Belousov congratulating 98th Guards VDV Division for "courage and bravery" in "liberating" Chasiv Yar. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video showing a BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher system operating in a field, conducting rocket launches. Kotsnews shares videos of soldiers operating in tactical environments, discussing movements, encounters with enemy, and operational readiness near Koptevo and Novotoretskoe. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video of a Russian soldier hit by an FPV drone while carrying a TM mine. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on the liquidation of Daria Trofimova, an RF drone operator, in Luhansk Oblast. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares an aerial video of an explosion targeting a structure. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/ТИEDОТТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) claims Russian forces are making full "egg-running" advances in Donbass, with Ukrainians fleeing at the same pace, and confirms Chasiv Yar is officially liberated with advances on Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, and encirclement of Kupyansk tightening, indicating offensive posture on all fronts. Kotsnews shares a photo of a new anti-tank 'Motiv', suggesting new weapon systems. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports enemy DRGs operating deep in Pokrovsk, citing "Muochnyy." Два майора shares a video titled "Frontline Armor" showing a soldier with a military truck within a trench, reinforcing RF presence. Воин DV shares a video of operators from the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade destroying enemy transport and communication assets in the zone of responsibility of the 36th Army of the "Vostok" grouping. Z комитет + карта СВО shows a tactical map of #Shakhovo. ТАСС shares a photo claiming Chasiv Yar liberation and stating it opens the way to Donbas cities. DeepState directly refutes the RF claims, stating "The enemy did not occupy Chasiv Yar, but only conducted another 'flag-waving' action behind the lines of the Defense Forces." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares DeepState's refutation of Chasiv Yar. РБК-Україна reports on UA forces' failure to capture Chasiv Yar, labeling it a "performance with tricolors." Воин DV shares drone footage of military vehicles (BTR "M577") with "Z" markings, suggesting continued ground operations. TASS reports Belousov met with the Syrian Defense Minister. Colonelcassad shares an image purporting to show UA confirmation of "factual loss of Chasiv Yar," though claiming continued presence in a specific sector. Colonelcassad shares a video of RF assault and reconnaissance personnel on the Southern Donetsk direction. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video about "The city came under the control of the Russian Federation. What's next?" showing a military speaker stating Chasiv Yar is under RF control and next step is offensive on Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. Colonelcassad provides photo and video messages on "Successes in Chasiv Yar" showing destroyed buildings and military personnel in what appears to be the city. TASS reports that the AFU has withdrawn their surviving grouping from Chasiv Yar to Konstantinovka, citing Russian security forces. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video demonstrating a heavily modified truck with anti-drone/anti-shrapnel protection, described as a "Frankenstein" vehicle for transporting "suicide assault troops." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - noting low confidence on Chasiv Yar claims, and the latest RF claim of UA confirmation is unverified and contradictory to public UA statements.)
  • Control Measures: RF Ministry of Justice added Alexei Navalny's book to extremist materials list. TASS reports on Roscosmos reporting continued air leak in ISS module and new agreements for joint ISS deorbiting until 2030. TASS claims Crocus attackers were paid, not religious fanatics. Police in Khabarovsk Krai initiated criminal proceedings for justifying terrorism. TASS reports Russia is becoming a world leader in fintech. TASS reports the car ramming incident after the Crocus attack was part of the terrorist attack. TASS reports former State Duma deputy Alexander Barannikov was fined for promoting LGBT content. TASS reports the share of imports from "unfriendly countries" has decreased threefold. TASS reports Tina Kandelaki has been declared wanted by the SBU in Ukraine. TASS reports Nicaragua's Co-Presidents sent a message of solidarity to Putin. TASS reports former Sochi mayor Kopaygorodsky accused of large-scale embezzlement. TASS reports a minor planned to set fire to relay cabinets in Krasnoyarsk for money. TASS reports over 250 participants in the AFU's invasion of Kursk Oblast has been convicted in the RF. TASS reports "Eksmo" publishing house will continue to publish Dina Rubina's books despite her statements on Gaza population. TASS reports Nikita Mikhalkov believes Russia should not submit its film for "Oscar" nomination. TASS reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been imposed at Saratov airport. TASS reports that Russia and the US are not yet negotiating nuclear disarmament. TASS reports that Vershinin stated US non-participation in the Palestine conference did not affect its productivity. TASS reports "Angara" airline has cancelled part of its flights. TASS reports Russia and Syria continue contacts on bases for security and humanitarian aid. TASS reports that Canada will recognize Palestine in September at the UN General Assembly. TASS reports that it is premature to talk about high-level meetings between Russia and Ukraine. TASS reports Trump stating he doesn't care about trade ties between New Delhi and Moscow. TASS reports anti-terrorist exercises were held at Vostochny Cosmodrome. TASS reports on new August laws, including the potential expulsion of foreigners for pre-election campaigning. TASS reports State Duma Deputy proposes banning unvaccinated migrants from taxi work. FSB reports 15 and 17 year sentences for couple collecting military data, highlighting internal repression. News from Moscow channel reports on new laws for August 2025. TASS denies reports of electronic driver's licenses from August 1. TASS reports the death of "Krugetz," who lost 50kg, in Nizhny Novgorod, from a local animal shelter group (likely a dog). TASS also reports the Syrian Foreign Minister's statement on interaction between Damascus and Moscow. TASS shares a photo of Maria Zakharova and her statement on Tina Kandelaki's wanted status. Басурин о главном shares a photo with the caption "Ultitramp is not our decree," implying rejection of Trump's statements. Филолог в засаде claims active work by Polish and Ukrainian special services in Belarus. TASS reports Roskomnadzor received an appeal from Shaman and will consider it in due course. TASS reports Lukashenka stated Russia is a guarantor of security for Belarus, and without RF support, Belarus would be "face-to-face with NATO." TASS reports the head of the Ministry of Defense in the transitional government of Syria plans to meet with his Russian counterpart during an official visit to RF. Colonelcassad shares videos of the sentencing of a couple for collecting military data for Ukrainian military intelligence and preparing sabotage in Moscow. TASS reports that the three individuals were convicted after the death of a Nizhny Novgorod resident in a boiling pit. TASS reports Moldovan President Sandu's statement on migrant registration, focusing only on those abroad, implicitly excluding Russia. TASS reports former head of the utilization service of RF MoD's Main Armored Directorate was sentenced to 9 years for bribery, indicating ongoing anti-corruption efforts. ASTRA reports regional officials are recommended to switch to the Max messenger from August, indicating a push for internal communication control. Alex Parker Returns shares a photo with the caption "Август будет переломным." (August will be a turning point.), suggesting a change in the operational tempo. TASS reports Patrushev claims Western countries are discussing state-level legalization of piracy, a narrative aiming to discredit the West. Colonelcassad shares a video of the detention of a man from Saksky district, Crimea, accused of supporting the AFU, denying Crimean territorial integrity, using derogatory terms for Russians, and proclaiming Nazi slogans. This indicates continued RF internal repression against perceived dissent in occupied territories. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on the detention of a former state employee who helped the enemy target a strategic enterprise. TASS reports an 18-year-old resident of Mariupol was sentenced to seven years for collecting data on RF Armed Forces for Ukrainian special services. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports children of a deceased serviceman in Irkutsk Oblast are not receiving payments, indicating internal issues with social support. TASS reports Putin signed a law on fines for intentional search of extremist materials and VPN advertising. TASS reports Putin signed a law recognizing VPN use as an aggravating circumstance for crimes. Colonelcassad comments on the new VPN law. ASTRA reports a photographer from Sevastopol was sentenced to 22 years in prison for allegedly causing an explosion in a house where a military officer lived. ASTRA reports on new Putin-signed laws, including fines for searching "extremist" information and for using VPNs. ТАСС reports Peskov stated BRICS is not oriented against other countries. Новости Москвы reports Putin signed law allowing tax authorities to collect debts without court order if no dispute exists. TASS reports that a registry of digital platforms, including marketplaces, will be created in the Russian Federation following a law signed by Putin. Kotsnews raises concerns about a lawsuit against Saponkov, a military blogger/volunteer, expressing hope it's not "human stupidity." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - noting medium confidence on Nicaragua claim)
• Friendly Forces (UA):
  • Government & Internal Security: Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal states that 90% of mobilization is proceeding normally and warns that a delay in budget amendments today could lead to salary arrears for military personnel from August 15th. Rada is set to vote on a crucial bill regarding NABU and SAP tomorrow. President Zelensky discusses GUR operations and successful cooperation with US partners on defense contracts and drone technology, and states the recent attack on Kyiv was "very treacherous and specially calculated to overload the air defense system." General Staff of UA Armed Forces emphasizes quality of training as priority. Syrisky demands maximum transfer of UA Armed Forces training underground. Syrisky announces updated Basic General Military Training (BZVP) program is now 51 days long. 25-year-old conscripts will be granted "soldier or sailor in reserve" status without TCC & SP call-up. KMA highlights World Central Kitchen's support for Kyiv. Kyiv municipal workers are continuing operations amidst the current attack. Ihor Klimenko, Minister of Internal Affairs, is on-site at a destroyed building in Kyiv, providing updates on search and rescue. Minister Klimenko's presence at the Kyiv strike site, highlighting the search for approximately 10 missing persons. Zelenskiy and KMA confirm 6 fatalities, including a child, and dozens injured from overnight Kyiv attack. KMA later confirms 7 fatalities, 88 injured. KMA now confirms 8 fatalities. General Staff of the AFU held a working meeting focusing on increasing unit capabilities. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering an agent collecting data on Ukrainian military and critical infrastructure in Kharkiv. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports officials of the forestry industry in Zhytomyr Oblast were exposed for causing almost 23 million UAH in damages to the state, with three notified of suspicion and one case sent to court (internal anti-corruption efforts). Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that 25-year-old men with medical or pharmaceutical education no longer need to appear at TCC for registration, citing Ministry of Defense, implying a streamlining of mobilization procedures. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими conducted meetings with families of missing and captured servicemen in Kharkiv Oblast. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering a scheme for purchasing quadcopters at inflated prices in Kyiv Oblast, causing almost 2 million UAH in damages. Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU and BEB exposed the chief financier of a combat brigade of the AFU who was embezzling funds for drone purchases. РБК-Україна reports MP Dmytro Kostiuk announced his withdrawal from the "Servant of the People" faction. Операция Z reports on a "circus in the Rada" with deputies fighting over NABU and "Servant of the People" losing "fighters," a propagandistic framing of internal political developments. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a settlement council deputy in Kyiv Oblast was taken into custody for a DUI resulting in injury to a minor. Оперативний ЗСУ reports MP Maryana Bezugla walking in the Verkhovna Rada with a tablet reading "Power is the people," and being sent back to work by the people's cries of "Go to work." Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares a video of Bezugla being confronted by protesters. STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, and ASTRA confirm the Verkhovna Rada adopted the bill restoring independence of NABU and SAP. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares images and video of the Rada restoring NABU and SAP powers. Операція Z shares images of the Rada vote. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a photo of the Rada vote with increased defense spending. РБК-Україна confirms Rada increased defense spending. Zelenskiy / Official speaks with new Polish President Karol Navrotsky. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports exposing a large-scale production of falsified pesticides supplied to EU countries. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy's call with new Polish President. РБК-Україна shares a video titled "ЗБІР НА РЕМОНТ АВТО ЕВАКУАЦІЇ" (FUNDRAISING FOR EVACUATION VEHICLE REPAIR), indicating continued efforts to support military and civilian needs. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports a meeting on preparation for the heating season in Kryvyi Rih, showing administrative action. РБК-Україна reports 135 injured, 12 children injured in Kyiv. Оперативний ЗСУ reports 135 injured, 12 children in Kyiv. STERNENKO confirms 8 killed, 135 injured, 12 children injured in Kyiv (outdated fatality count). Оперативний ЗСУ reports the Verkhovna Rada supported a bill reinforcing the right to education for military servicemen, as stated by Shmyhal. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos of soldiers of the 82nd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade improving communication skills. Zelenskiy / Official signs a law guaranteeing the independent operation of anti-corruption bodies and ensuring financing for the defense sector, including weapons, drones, and soldier payouts. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Ukrainian servicemen will receive an additional 15 days of vacation starting in August. РБК-Україна confirms that military personnel will receive an additional 15 days of vacation, citing Zelensky. РБК-Україна reports 9 fatalities in Kyiv (updated from 8). Оперативний ЗСУ confirms 9 fatalities in Kyiv. Zelenskiy / Official shares video confirming he signed the anti-corruption bill. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares video of Zelenskyy signing the anti-corruption bill. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares a photo of Zelenskyy with Polish President Karol Navrotsky, noting their first conversation. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports 36.5 hectares of protected lands in Synevyr National Nature Park were illegally seized from state ownership, violating environmental laws and threatening Carpathian ecosystems. РБК-Україна reports 10 killed in Kyiv from the night attack. STERNENKO confirms 9 killed in Kyiv. Оперативний ЗСУ reports 11 killed in Kyiv. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 11 killed, including 1 child. РБК-Україна reports 11 killed. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports 11 killed (including 1 child), 135 injured as of 16:45. Kyiv has declared tomorrow, August 1st, a day of mourning. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on 150M UAH damages from corruption in Zaporizhzhia and Transcarpathia, leading to 43 suspicions. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими shares photo messages about an online meeting with the association of families of soldiers from the 77th Separate Airmobile Brigade. РБК-Україна shares photo messages about a combat summons possibly arriving by mail. Офіс Генерального прокурора shares photo messages on corruption investigations in Zaporizhzhia. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) shares photo messages regarding the transfer of military equipment to Ukrainian forces in Kryvyi Rih. Олександр Вілкул also shares photo messages about large shipments of aid for over 30 units from Kryvyi Rih to the front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Military Action: Ukrainian "Predator" Brigade recruitment advertisements. Film "Road of Death" made about a Ukrainian GUR MO special forces operation. Successful FPV drone strikes by the 66th Separate Mechanized Brigade. Ukrainian engineering troops cleared nearly 3,000 hectares of mines in Kherson Oblast. Successful shootdown of 5 RF reconnaissance UAVs. UA drone successfully targeted RF SA-13, 2S1 Gvozdika. "BULAVA" unit of Separate Presidential Brigade used a drone with a grenade launcher for the first time. STERNENKO reports young benefactor raised 10,000 UAH for "Shahedorez." A new 16th Army Corps is being created to defend Kharkiv Oblast. 10th OGShBr successfully repelled an RF assault on the Siversk direction, destroying 13 motorcycles. Ukrainian forces are actively seeking support for excavators. PPO was active over Kyiv, responding to current Shahed attacks and missile threats. UA reports 15 enemy drones destroyed by PPO in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. General Staff of UA Armed Forces reports approx. 1070 RF personnel losses in the last 24 hours. Silo oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny issued an operational update for 08:00 (05:00Z). 47th Mechanized Brigade is conducting BZVP at its base. Ukrainian units are continuing to hold the main defensive line along the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal in Chasiv Yar, despite RF claims. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeastern direction. STERNENKO confirms 174 targets intercepted by "Shahedorez" project. 12th Azov Brigade videos show effective elimination of occupiers. UA Air Force/Operatyvnyi ZSU reports high number of intercepts (291/317 targets). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 317 aerial attack assets were engaged overnight and in the morning. ASTRA reports 5 direct missile hits and 21 drone hits, indicating some direct hits despite high interception rates. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video footage of a successful FPV drone strike on a Russian infantryman, and a unique operation to rescue a wounded Ukrainian infantryman using a drone to deliver a heavy electric bike for evacuation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the NGU "Khartia" Brigade destroyed a Russian ground robotic complex. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares an FPV drone video with "MADHAWK" visible, possibly indicating new drone models or units. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of a destroyed and burning military vehicle, possibly a Russian target. STERNENKO reports 315 FPV drones were purchased in the last day through public donations. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno shares a video of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" effectively eliminating occupiers, including drone footage of strikes. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" reports at least 6694 Russian officers demobilized since 24.02.2022. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides a summary of the situation in its operational zone, including photo of soldiers. Сили оборони Півдня України explicitly refutes RF claims of capturing Kamianske. РБК-Україна shows video of a confrontation during a Rada session broadcast. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos of youth undergoing intensive fire training as part of the "Contract 18-24" program, indicating continued force generation efforts. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes a video mocking "Два майора" while showing drone footage of targets and strikes, likely UA. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares FPV drone footage of a strike on a military vehicle with "СПЕЦПІДРОЗДІЛ ОМЕГА" and "НЕБО ПЕРЕМОГИ" overlays. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of an FPV drone strike on a Russian soldier carrying a TM mine, resulting in explosion. Президентська бригада ЗСУ shares a video of a drone strike on Russian positions. STERNENKO shares a video of the 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade destroying enemy transport with fiber-optic drones. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a photo with the caption "Догрались?" (Have they played enough?), potentially referencing the Penza attack. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos of 82nd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade soldiers training on communication. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України also shares these photos, emphasizing training and communication. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares video of "Khartia" destroying a Russian ground robotic complex, liquidating personnel, and destroying an ammunition depot and gun. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares the same video. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Technological Forces of Ukraine and the Ministry of Strategic Industries will hold a national series of events "Country of Engineers," indicating efforts to boost military-industrial capabilities. Воин DV shares drone footage of military vehicles (BTR "M577") with "Z" markings, suggesting continued ground operations. STERNENKO shares a video of Phoenix unit working against Russian transport on Konstantinivka direction, showing a hit on a vehicle. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video depicting a wounded RF soldier after a mortar strike, indicating successful UA fire. Старше Эдды offers reflections on heavy quadcopter platforms, acknowledging current Ukrainian superiority in this component but foreseeing the diminished effectiveness of bombing by dropping due to increased RF countermeasures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Border Control: Ukrainian border guards in Odesa detained an individual attempting to flee Ukraine disguised as a woman. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Civilian Support: Protests regarding NABU/SAP independence were held in Kyiv. Large numbers of civilians in Kyiv sheltered in metro stations due to drone attacks. Emergency services actively engaged in rescue and recovery in Kyiv. Klitschko reports police among the injured. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports air raid alert ended. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration continues to observe daily minute of silence to honor fallen soldiers. Rubezh NGU Brigade is fundraising to restore destroyed property and equipment. STERNENKO urges "Convert your rage into help for the army!", indicating continued public appeals for support. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is promoting a creative contest "What Ukraine means to me?" - likely a morale-boosting initiative. KMA reports on counting explosions, dead, and injured civilians, and expresses fear for children. РБК-Україна reports a rescued man in Kyiv. РБК-Україна shares video of a peaceful protest in Mariinsky Park, Kyiv, in support of the Presidential bill on NABU and SAP independence, and additional photos. Операция Z also reports on these protests. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video and photos of the protest for NABU and SAP independence in Mariinsky Park, Kyiv. STERNENKO also shares photos of the protest in Kyiv. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими promoting a 3D modeling course for high school students as part of their "People of the Future" project, a long-term civilian support initiative. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 announces new partnership between Energodar and Kaharlyk, indicating efforts to support civilian governance and recovery. STERNENKO states that citizens successfully convinced deputies on NABU/SAP independence. Координаційний штаб з питань поводлення з військовополоненими reports a meeting with families of servicemen from the 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade. Два майора highlights Ukrainian social media offering mobile shelters. РБК-Україна shares a fundraising video for evacuation vehicle repair, indicating continued civilian support for military efforts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and РБК-Україна share video of a girl surviving a fall from the 9th floor in Kyiv. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 thanks Ukrainian Armed Forces for holding the defense. Олександр Вілкул shares photos of a meeting regarding preparation for the heating season in Kryvyi Rih, indicating administrative efforts to support civilians. РБК-Україна reports Kyiv declares tomorrow, August 1st, a day of mourning. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms Kyiv declares tomorrow, August 1st, a day of mourning. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) shares a photo message announcing August 1st as a day of mourning in Kyiv for the victims of the July 31st attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Air/Missile/UAV: Capable of large-scale KAB launches (including FAB-1500) and persistent, multi-vector drone operations (Shaheds, reactive drones, FPV drones with thermobaric warheads) reaching Northern Kyiv and Western Ukraine. Demonstrated capability for coordinated, multi-layered aerial assaults on Kyiv, immediately following high-volume drone attacks with ballistic and cruise missile launches. Confirmed use of ballistic missiles on Kyiv, with claims of cluster warheads. Capable of striking industrial and logistics hubs such as Pavlohrad and military-industrial targets within Russia (e.g., Penza Radio Plant). Capable of employing mobile EW complexes (Shipovnik-Aero) to disrupt UAV C2. Capable of shooting down Ukrainian UAVs over Russian territory, claiming 169 drones shot down overnight (TASS). Zelenskiy confirms RF capability to launch over 300 drones and 8 missiles in a single night. WarGonzo claims mass use of "reactive Gerans" on Kyiv targets, supported by Klimenko's statement on "reactive Shaheds." Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms RF use of reactive Shaheds. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 317 aerial attack assets were engaged overnight and in the morning, indicating significant RF capability. ASTRA reports 5 direct missile hits and 21 drone hits overnight. TASS claims "Geran-2" and "Lancet" inflicted fire damage on AFU in Sumy Oblast. RF MoD claims a precision strike on a Ukrainian military airfield and ammunition depot. Fighterbomber video of Ka-52 firing flares demonstrates continued air combat operations. Два майора confirms ZALA Z-16 ISR capability for targeting. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS cites Ignat saying RF used up to 8 reactive UAVs in today's attack. НгП раZVедка shares photos on night strikes on enemy infrastructure, indicating broad strike capabilities. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports RF drone strike on railway traction substation and signaling station. Alex Parker Returns confirms drone strikes on industrial facilities in Penza, demonstrating deep strike capabilities into RF territory. Colonelcassad claims an Iskander-M strike on a tuberculosis dispensary (though the target is civilian). ASTRA confirms at least 2 UAV hits on Penza Radio Plant. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms strike on residential building in Kramatorsk, demonstrating capability to strike urban centers. Операция Z confirms powerful strike on enemy objects in Kramatorsk. Военкор Котенок confirms powerful explosions in Kramatorsk. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB inbound to Sumy. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports another drone found in Vladimir Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF struck Kyiv with Iskander-K from Kursk Oblast, highlighting the short flight time. Народная милиция ДНР claims to have destroyed an Israeli-made AFU radar station. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs incoming to Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports enemy UAV shot down near Belgorod. Военкор Котенок reports on the difficulty of shooting down reactive Gerans. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Forces: Capable of sustained offensive operations, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis, utilizing small infantry groups, special forces, and now company-sized mechanized assaults. Demonstrated capability for urban penetration by small assault groups. Capable of clearing fortified positions and securing logistics routes. Claimed liberation of Chasiv Yar and destruction of largest AFU grouping indicates capability for significant territorial gains and attrition of Ukrainian forces. Kotsnews footage confirms assault work under Pokrovsk, demonstrating continued ground offensive capability. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition highlights the difficulty and duration of fighting in Chasiv Yar, reinforcing RF claims of a tough but successful operation. MoD Russia shares video of howitzer crews engaging AFU strongholds and command posts in Luhansk, demonstrating continued artillery support for ground operations. Народная милиция ДНР footage demonstrates capability for night ambushes by special forces. MoD Russia claims an artillery crew destroyed an EW station and eliminated up to five AFU troops in Zaporozhye region. Операция Z (Military Correspondents of Russian Spring) video footage from Pokrovsk demonstrates effective use of fire against Ukrainian equipment and personnel. «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» video shows ground forces operating with artillery support. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video indicates training for naval special forces, suggesting continued capability development. Воин DV shows artillery units destroying AFU positions. TASS video shows specific VDV units ("Ivanovo, Kostroma, Yaroslavl paratroopers") being credited with "liberating" Chasiv Yar, demonstrating capabilities of specific VDV units. Рыбарь and Военкор Котенок videos also reinforce claimed ground advances and control in Chasiv Yar. Басурин о главном shows RF Defense Minister Belousov congratulating 98th Guards VDV Division for "courage and bravery" in "liberating" Chasiv Yar. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 demonstrates rocket artillery (Grad) operation, indicating continued indirect fire support. Kotsnews provides first-person accounts of tactical ground movements and engagements. Два майора tactical map details claimed success in Chasiv Yar. MoD Russia video shows paratroopers raising flags in Chasiv Yar, affirming ground control. Операция Z shares a video claiming VDV units hoisted flags in Chasiv Yar, reinforcing claimed capabilities. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/ТИEDОТТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) claims Russian forces are making full "egg-running" advances in Donbass, with Ukrainians fleeing at the same pace, and confirms Chasiv Yar is officially liberated with advances on Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, and encirclement of Kupyansk tightening, indicating offensive posture on all fronts. Kotsnews shares a photo of a new anti-tank 'Motiv', suggesting new weapon systems. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports enemy DRGs operating deep in Pokrovsk, confirming continued infiltration capability. Два майора shares a video titled "Frontline Armor" showing a soldier with a military truck within a trench, reinforcing RF presence. Воин DV shares a video of operators from the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade destroying enemy transport and communication assets in the zone of responsibility of the 36th Army of the "Vostok" grouping. Z комитет + карта СВО shows a tactical map of #Shakhovo. Colonelcassad reports on RF assault and reconnaissance personnel on the Southern Donetsk direction. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video about "The city came under the control of the Russian Federation. What's next?" showing a military speaker stating Chasiv Yar is under RF control and next step is offensive on Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. Colonelcassad provides photo and video messages on "Successes in Chasiv Yar" showing destroyed buildings and military personnel in what appears to be the city. TASS reports that the AFU has withdrawn their surviving grouping from Chasiv Yar to Konstantinovka, citing Russian security forces. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video demonstrating a heavily modified truck with anti-drone/anti-shrapnel protection, described as a "Frankenstein" vehicle for transporting "suicide assault troops," indicating adaptive, albeit crude, vehicle protection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - noting low confidence on Chasiv Yar claims, and the latest RF claim of UA confirmation of Chasiv Yar is unverified and contradictory to public UA statements.)
  • Electronic Warfare (EW): Demonstrated advanced EW capabilities with the first operational deployment of the Shipovnik-Aero mobile EW complex. MoD Russia claims a Msta-B howitzer crew destroyed an EW station in Zaporozhye region, indicating continued RF focus on EW targeting/neutralization. Colonelcassad shares video of 'Rubikon' system targeting and engaging communication assets. Народная милиция ДНР claims to have destroyed an Israeli-made AFU radar station. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Operations: Highly capable of generating and disseminating false flag narratives, exploiting internal Ukrainian issues, discrediting Ukraine and its leadership, and promoting narratives of their own advances. Increased aggressive rhetoric, openly mocking Ukrainian air defenses and celebrating attacks on "enemy capital" and residential buildings. Utilizing military bloggers for real-time information warfare, fundraising, and morale boosting. New claims regarding foreign nuclear weapons in the UK are likely intended to escalate tensions and justify RF actions. RF sources overtly celebrating Kyiv attacks (e.g., "enemy capital") indicate an intent to terrorize the population and demonstrate power. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming RT's audience in the US is larger than CNN's, an IO effort to discredit Western media. ТАСС shares video of a couple convicted for collecting military data for Ukraine, aimed at highlighting Ukrainian "terrorist" activities. Alex Parker Returns comments on the Crocus attack, framing the perpetrators as manipulated for money, potentially deflecting from extremist motivations and portraying perpetrators as "biological drones" manipulated by "customers." Рыбарь shares a video about "Sandu deciding for everyone," likely an information operation targeting Moldova and its ties to the EU. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian media published an article with the headline: "There is no other option: no one should be left alive in Ukraine," indicating extreme dehumanizing propaganda. Басурин о главном expresses defiance towards Trump's ultimatum. Alex Parker Returns attempts to discredit Zelenskyy's online address at an OSCE conference. Colonelcassad claims new drone munitions for Ukraine with Danish support, a likely attempt to spin Western aid as dangerous. TASS (Maria Zakharova) dismisses the SBU's warrant for Tina Kandelaki as a "cherche la femme" operation, implying political triviality. WarGonzo frames Ukrainian curators exploiting Russian teenagers for sabotage. Военкор Котенок uses images of cultural destruction to portray Azerbaijani aggression. Филолог в засаде spreads narratives about Polish/Ukrainian special services in Belarus. Alex Parker Returns explicitly states "Мелочь, а приятно. Быть добру!" (A trifle, but pleasant. All will be good!) regarding the incident in Kryvyi Rih, showing clear malicious intent and celebration of Ukrainian veteran casualties. Операция Z propagates the narrative of a "circus in the Rada" with fighting over NABU and "Servant of the People" losing "fighters," clearly attempting to discredit Ukrainian governance. Рыбарь discusses the "Turkish trace" in the Crocus attack, indicating continued efforts to blame external actors. Colonelcassad asserts Western pressure influenced the NABU/SAP vote in Ukraine, framing it as external control. TASS reports on the losses of elite Ukrainian units in Chasiv Yar, a propaganda claim. Два майора provides information on Crimea's Aksyonov decree regarding foreign labor, reflecting RF internal narrative on immigration control. TASS uses Sandu's call to migrants as an opportunity to subtly highlight Russia's influence by pointing out the omission of Russian migrants. TASS reports Patrushev's claim on Western countries discussing piracy legalization, further aiming to discredit the West. Alex Parker Returns shares a photo of Belousov meeting his Syrian counterpart, framing it as continued strong military-diplomatic ties. Colonelcassad shares a video of the detention of a man in Crimea for supporting the AFU, demonstrating capability to conduct internal security IO. ТАСС reports Patrushev's statement that NATO is turning the Baltic into a zone of military-political instability. ТАСС reports Patrushev believes US and Japan could escalate in the Bering Strait. Операция Z claims Nicaragua officially recognized new territories of Ukraine as part of Russia. Colonelcassad reiterates this claim. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/ТИEDОТТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) shares a photo related to Zaluzhny becoming a "Vogue model," likely a meme or IO aimed at discrediting Ukrainian leadership. Басурин о главном shares a meme-like image potentially mocking Western leaders regarding reparations. ТАСС shares a photo regarding the "liberation" of Chasiv Yar and its strategic importance for Donbas, reinforcing RF narrative. Операция Z shares a photo and caption claiming "Russian Gerans rip AFU to shreds, Kyiv doesn't know how to fight back," citing The Economist, indicating propaganda to demoralize UA and inflate RF capabilities. Colonelcassad shares a photo of the Rada vote, framing it as Western control, consistent with their IO. ASTRA posts on Putin's new restrictive laws, which are part of the IO to control information. TASS reports Peskov stated BRICS work is not oriented against other countries, aiming to mitigate perceived threats from this alliance. TASS reports Medvedev stated Russia highly values Nicaragua's decision to recognize annexed Ukrainian territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - noting medium confidence on Nicaragua claim, and recognizing meme nature of some IO)
• Intentions:
  • Strategic Attrition: Continue to degrade Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure through persistent, high-intensity, layered aerial strikes (KABs, Shaheds, ballistic/cruise missiles), with a clear intent to terrorize the population and overwhelm air defenses. This is confirmed by the ongoing Kyiv strikes, the targeting of residential buildings, and the celebration of these attacks by RF sources. Intent to target logistics hubs such as Pavlohrad and key military-industrial targets within Russia (e.g., Penza Radio Plant). Inflict heavy casualties on UA personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Territorial Expansion: Maintain and intensify ground pressure on the Pokrovsk axis, aiming for a decisive breakthrough and consolidation of urban centers (e.g., Pokrovsk). Continue probing actions in Sumy Oblast and utilizing special forces in Kharkiv. Exploit claimed breakthroughs like Chasiv Yar for further offensive operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare/Propaganda: Continuously blame UA for civilian casualties and disseminate propaganda discrediting Ukraine and its armed forces. Promote narratives of their own advances and Ukrainian losses (e.g., claimed liberation of Chasiv Yar and destruction of AFU grouping). Intensify psychological operations against Ukrainian population. Control internal narratives regarding significant events and enforce social conservatism. New claims regarding foreign nuclear weapons in the UK are likely intended to escalate tensions and justify RF actions. RF sources will likely link Kyiv attacks to perceived Western provocations. Рыбарь shares a video about Moldova, potentially aiming to influence internal politics or international relations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian media is publishing genocidal rhetoric ("no one should be left alive in Ukraine"), indicating an intent to dehumanize the enemy and incite extreme violence. Alex Parker Returns shows an intent to degrade Ukrainian morale and unity by celebrating casualties of Ukrainian veterans. Операция Z shows intent to discredit Ukrainian political leadership and internal stability. TASS shows intent to promote the RF internal security narrative with the sentencing of Timofeev. TASS with Sandu's statement aims to influence Moldovan politics. Alex Parker Returns with "August will be a turning point" suggests intent to project confidence in future RF successes. Операция Z's claim about Nicaragua recognizing annexed territories is a clear intent to legitimize illegal annexations and sow doubt about international consensus. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/ТИEDОТТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) shows intent to discredit Ukrainian leaders via meme. Операция Z's headline about "Russian Gerans rip AFU to shreds" is clear intent to demoralize UA forces and their supporters. Alex Parker Returns's post about Belousov and the Syrian counterpart aims to project strong diplomatic and military relations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Courses of Action: RF will continue massed aerial attacks, primarily with KABs (including FAB-1500) and Shahed UAVs, now extending to Northern Kyiv Oblast, Western Ukraine, and key logistics hubs like Pavlohrad, immediately followed by ballistic and cruise missile launches. Ground offensives will persist on the Pokrovsk axis with further mechanized assaults and urban penetration attempts. RF will continue to utilize drones for reconnaissance and targeting, increasing Lancet strikes, leveraging new EW systems. RF will intensify information warfare campaigns, with increasingly aggressive rhetoric, and continue to control and exploit internal dissent. RF will continue to emphasize military-industrial targets in Ukraine and potentially launch further attacks on its own territory for false-flag purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Intensified Layered Air/Missile Strikes on Kyiv & Expanded Range: The immediate follow-up of a very high-volume Shahed attack with ballistic and cruise missile threats and a confirmed ballistic strike on Kyiv (causing 11 fatalities, 135 injured, including 12 children, and widespread residential damage, now 124 casualties overall in Kyiv, with 135 reported injured from this wave) demonstrates a highly coordinated, multi-layered aerial assault strategy aimed at overwhelming air defenses and maximizing terror/damage. Expanded Shahed range to Northern Kyiv and Western Ukraine. First reported FAB-1500 strike on Kupyansk. Confirmed strike on Pavlohrad railway junction. Damage to railway infrastructure in Kyiv indicates expanding target sets. Zelenskiy confirms over 300 drones and 8 missiles launched overnight against Ukraine, and states the attack was calculated to overload PPO. Video confirms Shahed impact on Kyiv residential building. Klimenko suggests use of "reactive Shaheds" in Kyiv. ASTRA confirms 5 direct missile hits and 21 drone hits overnight. РБК-Україна reports the injured toll in Kyiv has risen to 135, and fatalities to 9. STERNENKO confirms damage to the "Umma" mosque in Kyiv, indicating a targeting of civilian infrastructure regardless of religious significance. Colonelcassad shares additional photos of night Kyiv during the combined strike, claiming military-industrial infrastructure was hit (RF spin). RF MoD claims a precision strike on a Ukrainian military airfield and ammunition depot overnight, and identifies UAV components depots as targets. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS cites Ignat saying RF used up to 8 reactive UAVs in today's attack. НгП раZVедка shares photos on night strikes on enemy infrastructure. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports RF drone strike on railway traction substation and signaling station. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming an Iskander-M strike on a tuberculosis dispensary in Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, highlighting the continued use of advanced missiles. Strike on Kramatorsk center with residential building destruction indicates continued targeting of civilian areas. Операция Z confirms powerful strike on enemy objects in Kramatorsk. Военкор Котенок confirms powerful explosions in Kramatorsk. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF struck Kyiv with Iskander-K from Kursk Oblast, demonstrating rapid-response ballistic missile capability. РБК-Україна reports 10 killed in Kyiv. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms 11 killed in Kyiv. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 11 killed, including 1 child. РБК-Україна reports 11 killed. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports 11 killed (including 1 child), 135 injured. Военкор Котенок reports on the difficulty of shooting down reactive "Gerans." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Aggressive Ground Maneuvers (Pokrovsk & Chasiv Yar): Ongoing "intensely escalating" situation on the Pokrovsk axis, with claimed advancements into residential areas of Pokrovsk and resumed company-sized mechanized assaults. RF "CENTRE" grouping employing FPV drones in the battles for Dimitrov. RF MoD claims complete liberation of Chasiv Yar and destruction of largest AFU grouping there, reinforced by video evidence of flag raising. TASS claims collapse of UA defenses on Kostiantynivka direction. Kotsnews shares footage of assault work under Pokrovsk, indicating continued ground pressure. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Alex Parker Returns both assert the liberation of Chasiv Yar, with Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition emphasizing the long and hard nature of the battle. TASS (Alausdinov) asserts that with the liberation of Chasiv Yar, the entire Ukrainian defensive system in this direction has been breached. Операция Z (Military Correspondents of Russian Spring) provides video of fierce battles near Pokrovsk, demonstrating continued aggressive ground tactics. Colonelcassad claims UA acknowledges loss of Kamiansk (Kamianske) and fighting in Plavni/Stepnohirsk. Сили оборони Півдня України directly refutes the claim of Kamianske capture. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS refutes Kamianske capture. TASS video shows specific VDV units ("Ivanovo, Kostroma, Yaroslavl paratroopers") being credited with "liberating" Chasiv Yar, highlighting adaptation in unit-level propaganda. Kotsnews shares videos of tactical movements and engagements in captured areas, indicating continued ground operations. Два майора tactical map details claimed success in Chasiv Yar. MoD Russia shares video of paratroopers raising flags in Chasiv Yar. Операция Z shares a video claiming VDV units hoisted flags in Chasiv Yar, reinforcing claims. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/ТИEDОТТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) reiterates RF ground advances on all fronts. Kotsnews shares a photo of a new anti-tank 'Motiv', indicating adaptive weapons development. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports enemy DRGs operating deep in Pokrovsk, indicating a tactical adaptation for infiltration. DeepState reports occupation of Kam'yans'ke, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which, if confirmed, would represent a significant RF tactical adaptation/success. DeepState directly refutes RF claims of Chasiv Yar occupation, calling it a "flag-waving" action, indicating an adaptation in UA counter-IO. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares DeepState's refutation of Chasiv Yar. РБК-Україна reports on UA forces' failure to capture Chasiv Yar, labeling it a "performance with tricolors." Воин DV shares drone footage of military vehicles (BTR "M577") with "Z" markings, suggesting continued ground operations. Colonelcassad reports UA's "factual loss" of Chasiv Yar but continued presence in private sector, an adaptation of RF narrative. STERNENKO shares video of Phoenix unit hitting Russian transport, indicating UA adaptation to targeting supply lines. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video of wounded RF soldier indicates continued aggressive combat. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video about "The city came under the control of the Russian Federation. What's next?" showing a military speaker stating Chasiv Yar is under RF control and next step is offensive on Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. Colonelcassad provides photo and video messages on "Successes in Chasiv Yar" showing destroyed buildings and military personnel in what appears to be the city. TASS reports that the AFU has withdrawn their surviving grouping from Chasiv Yar to Konstantinovka, citing Russian security forces. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video demonstrating a heavily modified truck with anti-drone/anti-shrapnel protection, described as a "Frankenstein" vehicle for transporting "suicide assault troops," indicating a tactical adaptation against drone threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - noting UA denial of Chasiv Yar liberation and conflicting Kamianske reports)
• Electronic Warfare Deployment (Chasiv Yar): First confirmed operational deployment of the Shipovnik-Aero mobile EW complex near Chasiv Yar. MoD Russia claims destruction of an EW station in Zaporozhye region, indicating continued adaptive targeting. Colonelcassad shares video of 'Rubikon' system targeting and engaging communication assets, indicating adaptive EW capabilities. Народная милиция ДНР claims to have destroyed an Israeli-made AFU radar station, highlighting continued RF focus on countering UA ISR and targeting systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Increased Loitering Munition Use (Chasiv Yar): 50% increase in Lancet strikes targeting UA artillery and logistics. TASS claims Lancet use in Sumy Oblast. Операция Z uses a headline stating "Russian Gerans rip AFU to shreds," indicating increased and effective loitering munition use. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Enhanced FPV Drone Payload Threat (Avdiivka): Increasing reports indicate Russian FPV drones are being equipped with thermobaric warheads. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Aggressive RF Rhetoric: Escalation of threatening rhetoric from RF military bloggers and propagandists towards Ukraine, with open mockery of Ukrainian air defenses and explicit threats of future mass attacks, and celebration of hits on civilian areas (Kyiv). New RF claims of UA defense collapse on Kostiantynivka direction. Medvedev's latest statements, mentioning "Dead Hand" system and calling Trump's reaction "nervous," escalate rhetorical threats and aim to project resolve. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming RT's audience in the US is larger than CNN's, indicating an IO effort to shape perceptions. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Medvedev's aggressive rhetoric towards Trump regarding "Finlandia" and "something very bad," indicating high-level political figures are increasingly involved in public verbal hostilities. "Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» further amplifies Medvedev's aggressive rhetoric with an image of him with middle fingers. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian media publishing genocidal rhetoric ("no one should be left alive in Ukraine"), indicating an adaptation to extreme dehumanizing propaganda. Басурин о главном displays open defiance towards Trump's ultimatum. Alex Parker Returns attempts to discredit Zelenskyy's online address at an OSCE conference. Alex Parker Returns explicitly states "Мелочь, а приятно. Быть добру!" (A trifle, but pleasant. All will be good!) regarding the incident in Kryvyi Rih, showing clear malicious intent and celebration of Ukrainian veteran casualties. Операция Z uses internal Ukrainian political conflict (Rada fight) as a propaganda tool to portray internal instability. TASS reports Lukashenka's statements about Russia guaranteeing Belarusian security and preventing direct confrontation with NATO, indicating an adaptation of rhetoric to justify military posture. TASS claim about losses of elite UA units in Chasiv Yar is an adaptation of rhetoric. Alex Parker Returns shares a photo with the caption "Август will be a turning point." (August will be a turning point.), suggesting a shift in strategic narrative. TASS reports Patrushev's statement that NATO is turning the Baltic into a zone of military-political instability. TASS reports Patrushev believes US and Japan could escalate in the Bering Strait. Colonelcassad shares Patrushev's full statement. Операция Z with "Russian Gerans rip AFU to shreds" is an adaptation of rhetoric to inflate capabilities and demoralize the enemy. ASTRA highlights Putin's new restrictive laws, which are part of an adaptive control strategy. TASS reports Peskov stated BRICS work is not oriented against other countries, aiming to mitigate perceived threats from this alliance. TASS reports Medvedev stated Russia highly values Nicaragua's decision to recognize annexed Ukrainian territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Targeting Infrastructure and Communications: Continued adaptive targeting of civilian infrastructure and industrial enterprises (e.g., Vasyshcheve, Kyiv residential buildings/industrial targets, Pavlohrad railway junction, Volgograd railway/gas supply, Penza Radio Plant). Damage to Kyiv railway infrastructure reported. Военкор Котенок reports the drone attack on a Penza industrial facility. STERNENKO confirms damage to the "Umma" mosque in Kyiv, indicating a targeting of civilian infrastructure regardless of religious significance. MoD Russia explicitly targets military airfield infrastructure and ammunition depots. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno confirms hits on railway traction substation and signaling station in RF. Colonelcassad claims an Iskander-M strike on a tuberculosis dispensary, indicating the targeting of civilian medical facilities, an adaptation to maximize civilian impact. Strike on Kramatorsk residential building confirms continued targeting of civilian infrastructure. Воин DV shares video of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade destroying enemy transport and communication assets. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF struck Kyiv with Iskander-K from Kursk Oblast, confirming precise targeting of urban centers. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports destruction of almost 700 hectares of grain by fires from shelling, demonstrating targeting of agricultural resources. Два майора reports UA drone attack on Sluchevsk, Bryansk Oblast, injuring a civilian, highlighting continued cross-border targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Decoy Deployment (Kherson): The observed "Oduvanchik" wireframe structure near Kherson, described as a passive defense idea for armored vehicles against drones, indicates RF efforts to adapt to Ukrainian drone superiority. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Targeting of Ukrainian Logistics and Personnel through Agent Networks: SBU (Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) confirmed an FSB agent was detained for adjusting RF shelling of Kharkiv's energy infrastructure. This indicates RF's continued reliance on human intelligence networks for targeting critical infrastructure. Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU and BEB exposing a chief financier stealing funds for drones, indicating RF's exploitation of internal corruption. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on the liquidation of an RF drone operator who was delivering FPV drones under humanitarian aid disguise. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on a collaborator deputy in Zaporizhzhia who transferred nearly 24,000 tons of harvest to RF, indicating adaptive use of collaborators to exploit occupied territories. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on the detention of a former state employee who helped the enemy target a strategic enterprise, demonstrating continued human intelligence targeting. TASS reports an 18-year-old resident of Mariupol was sentenced to seven years for collecting data on RF Armed Forces for Ukrainian special services. ASTRA reports a photographer from Sevastopol was sentenced to 22 years in prison for allegedly causing an explosion in a house where a military officer lived. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Counter-UAV/Robotics in Ground Operations: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the NGU "Khartia" Brigade destroyed a Russian ground robotic complex, indicating RF's limited, but growing, deployment of UGV technology in ground operations. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 and БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС share video of "Khartia" destroying a Russian ground robotic complex. Старше Эдды offers reflections on heavy quadcopter platforms, acknowledging current Ukrainian superiority but foreseeing diminished effectiveness of bombing by dropping due to increased RF countermeasures, indicating RF's adaptive thinking. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Ukraine Acquiring New Drone Munitions: Colonelcassad shares images of what appear to be new munitions for drones, attributed to Ukraine with Danish support. This suggests Ukraine is adapting its drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• RF Internal Security Targeting of Sabotage: Increased focus on railway sabotage, with arrests of teenagers, indicates an adaptation to internal threats perceived as orchestrated by Ukraine. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares video on the arrest of a saboteur in Ufa. Colonelcassad shares video of the detention of a man in Crimea for supporting the AFU, indicating adaptive internal security measures in occupied territories. TASS reports an 18-year-old resident of Mariupol was sentenced to seven years for collecting data on RF Armed Forces for Ukrainian special services. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports another drone found in Vladimir Oblast, indicating RF adaptation to wider-ranging UA drone attacks. TASS reports Putin signed a law on fines for intentional search of extremist materials and VPN advertising. TASS reports Putin signed a law recognizing VPN use as an aggravating circumstance for crimes. Colonelcassad comments on the new VPN law. ASTRA reports on new Putin-signed restrictive laws, including fines for "extremist" information searches and VPN use, indicating intensified internal security adaptations. Kotsnews raises concerns about a lawsuit against a military blogger/volunteer, which could reflect adaptive internal control measures within the information space. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Communication Control: ASTRA reports regional officials are recommended to switch to the Max messenger from August, indicating an adaptive measure to enhance internal communication control and potentially prevent leaks. ASTRA reports Nizhny Novgorod Governor Gleb Nikitin found "wellness detox" in internet shutdowns, indicating a propaganda adaptation to frame disruptions positively. Глеб Никитин shares a photo message about reporting to legislative assembly deputies on work results and plans, indicating continued focus on public engagement and governance within the region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Financial Regulations (RF): TASS reports Bank of Russia established quantitative limits on mortgages for individual housing construction for the first time, indicating an adaptive financial measure, likely to control inflation or stabilize the housing market. TASS reports Putin signed a law allowing investigators and interrogators to suspend financial transactions for up to 10 days. TASS reports new duties for state services and increases in existing ones will be introduced in RF. TASS reports 40 million rubles collected from Oleg Tinkov in favor of Oleg Deripaska as compensation for moral damages, highlighting a notable internal financial adaptation related to prominent figures. TASS reports Putin signed a law on regulating installment services. Новости Москвы reports Putin signed law allowing tax authorities to collect debts without court order if no dispute exists. TASS reports that a registry of digital platforms, including marketplaces, will be created in the Russian Federation following a law signed by Putin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Accelerated Naval Drone Development (RF): Два майора reports "the race for naval unmanned technologies is accelerating," indicating RF's adaptive development in naval drone warfare. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Kindergarten Space Allocation (RF): TASS reports State Duma proposal to secure kindergarten spots for children of parents on maternity leave for the entire period, an adaptive social measure to support families and encourage childbearing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - internal social policy)
• High-Speed Rail Development (RF): TASS reports Putin ordered a model for high-speed rail network development by March 31, 2026. TASS reports RF plans to establish railway transportation to Laos via China, as stated by Putin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - internal development)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Ammunition & Fuel: RF's continued high-volume KAB (including FAB-1500), Shahed, ballistic, and cruise missile launches, coupled with increased Lancet activity and artillery use, indicate continued substantial availability of munitions. MoD Russia confirms targeting of ammunition and missile weaponry depots. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video of Grad MLRS in operation supports continued artillery and rocket supply. Kotsnews shares a photo of a new anti-tank 'Motiv', indicating continued development and supply of new weapon systems. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 and БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС share video of "Khartia" destroying an ammunition depot. Народная милиция ДНР claims to have destroyed an Israeli-made AFU radar station, implying continued access to ISR/EW capabilities. Народная милиция ДНР reports on humanitarian aid from Moscow for Donbas, including medical supplies, food, and PPE, indicating some level of logistical support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Personnel: Ukraine is actively addressing personnel needs through recruitment campaigns and new policies for 25-year-old conscripts. RF continues internal control efforts, recruiting in occupied territories, and introducing military training in schools. Appeals for drone and Starlink support by RF VDV units suggest potential supply issues or demand outstripping official provision. Long queues at Luhansk hospital indicate potential stress on the civilian medical system under occupation. RF legislation to expel foreigners involved in election campaigning suggests tighter internal control and potential recruitment difficulties. Sentencing of a couple for collecting military data indicates continued internal security focus on controlling information flow regarding military personnel. ТАСС reports on the sentencing of a couple for collecting data on military personnel, confirming this internal security focus. Два майора shares a video on tactical medicine training for naval special forces, indicating RF training and sustainment efforts. Fighterbomber reports the military commissariat of Leninsky and Kirovsky districts of Rostov-on-Don invites volunteers to conclude a contract with the RF Ministry of Defense, indicating continued recruitment efforts. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a convicted serviceman was accused of rape, indicating internal discipline issues within RF forces. WarGonzo reports on a youth detained for arsons, indicating continued internal security issues. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on 31 bodies of liquidated RF servicemen in Tuva, highlighting challenges in casualty management and treatment of relatives. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" reports 6694 RF officers demobilized, indicating significant personnel losses. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos of youth undergoing intensive fire training under "Contract 18-24" program, indicating Ukrainian efforts to train personnel. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a mobilized invalid was given a ruined apartment, indicating poor support for veterans. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on the liquidation of Daria Trofimova, an RF drone operator. TASS reports the head of Crimea's Aksyonov decree restricting foreign labor, indicating efforts to manage internal labor force. TASS reports the sentencing of Timofeev for bribery, which could impact confidence in military logistics. Colonelcassad shares video of the detention of a man in Crimea for supporting the AFU, confirming ongoing internal security measures affecting personnel. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники post "Urgent service is dangerous for life. Replace it with an alternative" may indicate internal recruitment challenges or efforts to promote alternative service. TASS reports an 18-year-old resident of Mariupol was sentenced to seven years for collecting data on RF Armed Forces for Ukrainian special services. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports children of a deceased serviceman in Irkutsk Oblast are not receiving payments, highlighting internal social support failures. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on the death of Kirill Ocean, described as a mercenary in Ukraine, highlighting continued losses of personnel fighting for RF. ASTRA reports a photographer from Sevastopol was sentenced to 22 years in prison for allegedly causing an explosion in a house where a military officer lived, indicating a severe internal crackdown on individuals perceived as security threats. Fighterbomber reports two of the best (pilots/crew) died today, indicating significant personnel losses. РБК-Україна shares photo messages about a combat summons possibly arriving by mail. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Materiel: UA forces are effectively using Bozena 5 demining systems and innovative drone weaponization. RF's ability to field S-400 for ground strikes and new EW systems like Shipovnik-Aero indicates continued production or access to advanced materiel. RF military bloggers soliciting public donations for thermal imagers suggests a shortfall in specific critical equipment. The strike on Penza Radio Plant, identified as a producer of military computing equipment, indicates a potential effort to degrade RF materiel production. Rubezh NGU Brigade's fundraising for lost equipment suggests materiel losses on UA side. Kotsnews recruitment video highlights financial incentives for service, likely in response to personnel needs, implying challenges in voluntary enlistment. The "Oduvanchik" passive defense structure indicates efforts to counter UA drone threats. Colonelcassad shares a video of ZALA Z-16 drones providing targeting for MLRS, indicating continued use of advanced ISR platforms. Colonelcassad provides multiple videos of "SVO Aid Fund" activity, showing delivery of supplies including cigarettes, sanitary items, medical supplies, and general aid, indicating reliance on public and volunteer efforts to sustain troops. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the NGU "Khartia" Brigade destroyed a Russian ground robotic complex, suggesting limited but present UGV development. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on corruption in quadcopter procurement, impacting resource efficiency. Новости Москвы reports the Lada Iskra will not include air conditioning, possibly reflecting economic constraints impacting civilian goods. Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU/BEB exposed corruption in drone procurement, highlighting ongoing challenges with materiel efficiency. Два майора shares a photo of proposed mobile shelters in Ukraine, potentially indicating materiel needs. Kotsnews shares a photo of a new anti-tank 'Motiv', indicating new materiel development. РБК-Україна shares a fundraising video for evacuation vehicle repair, indicating materiel needs for support vehicles. Два майора reports naval unmanned technologies are accelerating, indicating RF investment in new materiel. Народная милиция ДНР reports on humanitarian aid for Donbas soldiers and civilians, including medical kits, PPE, and food, suggesting reliance on such contributions to sustain forces. Colonelcassad shares a video of assault and reconnaissance personnel receiving equipment, indicating continued reliance on external support. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) shares photo messages regarding the transfer of military equipment, including drones and other supplies, to Ukrainian forces in Kryvyi Rih. Олександр Вілкул also shares photo messages about large shipments of aid for over 30 units from Kryvyi Rih to the front, including numerous drones and other items, indicating ongoing efforts to secure and deliver materiel. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video demonstrating a heavily modified truck with anti-drone/anti-shrapnel protection. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• Tactical Level (RF): Effective tactical C2 for reconnaissance and strike missions, including coordinated multi-layered aerial assaults on Kyiv, drone operations, special forces assaults, and ground offensives on the Pokrovsk axis and claimed Chasiv Yar liberation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Operational/Strategic Level (UA): Ongoing governmental C2 over anti-corruption reforms and economic security. Effective information operations C2. Strong military C2 over force generation and readiness, including the formation of new corps. Adaptable C2 in managing personnel and strategic C2 over military and diplomatic efforts. PPO responses and timely public warnings indicate effective C2 of air defense assets and public communication under stress. General Staff of AFU conducting working meetings to enhance unit capabilities demonstrates effective C2. KMA's statements reflect continued C2 of emergency and civilian protection efforts. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports successful internal anti-corruption measures, indicating effective C2 in governance. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) share Minister Klimenko's report, indicating direct C2 from the highest levels to public information dissemination. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares news from Shmyhal about potential salary arrears for military personnel if budget amendments are not passed today, indicating immediate C2 attention to critical financial issues. Оперативний ЗСУ and Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" show footage of internal political dissent within the Rada, indicating some C2 challenges in maintaining political unity. STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, and ASTRA confirm the successful parliamentary vote on NABU/SAP, indicating governmental C2 over key reforms. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Операція Z confirm the Rada vote. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна confirm Rada increased defense spending, demonstrating C2 effectiveness in resource allocation. Zelenskiy / Official speaks with new Polish President, indicating continued diplomatic C2. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on successful efforts against falsified pesticides, showing C2 in economic security. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on preparation for heating season in Kryvyi Rih, indicating effective civilian C2. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Verkhovna Rada supported bill on education for servicemen, demonstrating C2 in personnel welfare. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ and Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України highlight continued training focus on communication, indicating strong C2 emphasis on operational effectiveness. Zelenskiy / Official signing laws on anti-corruption and defense financing shows strong C2 on legislative and resource allocation matters. Оперативний ЗСУ reports additional 15 days of vacation for servicemen starting in August. РБК-Україна confirms this. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares video of Zelenskyy signing the anti-corruption bill, confirming the effectiveness of government C2. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares a photo of Zelenskyy's call with Polish President, indicating effective diplomatic C2. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on "Country of Engineers" initiative, indicating C2 over industrial and technological development. Олександр Вілкул shares photos of a meeting regarding heating season preparation, showing effective C2 at regional level. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 16:00, July 31st, demonstrating continued C2 reporting. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими shares photo messages about an online meeting with families of the 77th Separate Airmobile Brigade, indicating effective C2 in supporting military families. РБК-Україна shares photo messages about the new law on NABU and SAP being published, confirming effective legislative C2. Офіс Генерального прокурора shares photo messages on corruption investigations in Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating effective C2 in combating internal corruption. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) and Олександр Вілкул share photo messages regarding large shipments of military aid, indicating effective C2 in materiel acquisition and distribution. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Operational/Strategic Level (RF): Centralized strategic C2 over internal information space, social policies, international narratives, and long-term societal militarization. Effective C2 over information operations to exploit Western vulnerabilities. Pragmatic adaptation to maintain critical space infrastructure. Medvedev's rapid response to Trump's comments, and the State Duma's proactive legislation changes, illustrate centralized control over external messaging and internal policy. TASS reports the Syrian Foreign Minister's statement on interaction between Damascus and Moscow, highlighting continued diplomatic C2. TASS reports Belousov congratulating VDV units, showing C2 reinforcing morale. Colonelcassad shares videos of the sentencing of a couple for collecting military data, demonstrating effective internal security C2. TASS reports Putin's meeting with Laotian President, indicating strategic diplomatic C2. TASS reports Patrushev's statement about Western piracy, reflecting C2 over strategic messaging. TASS reports Patrushev's statements on NATO and US/Japan escalation, indicating C2 over geopolitical narratives. TASS reports Bank of Russia setting mortgage limits, showing C2 over economic policy. Colonelcassad shares Patrushev's full statement. TASS reports Putin signed a law allowing investigators and interrogators to suspend financial transactions for up to 10 days. TASS reports new duties for state services and increases in existing ones will be introduced, indicating centralized fiscal control. TASS reports 40 million rubles collected from Tinkov for Deripaska, highlighting centralized legal control over financial disputes involving prominent figures. TASS reports Putin signed a law on fines for intentional search of extremist materials and VPN advertising. TASS reports Putin signed a law recognizing VPN use as an aggravating circumstance for crimes. TASS reports Belousov met with the Syrian Defense Minister. TASS reports Peskov stated BRICS work is not oriented against other countries. Новости Москвы reports Putin signed law allowing tax authorities to collect debts without court order if no dispute exists. TASS reports Putin ordered high-speed rail development model by March 2026, indicating strategic infrastructure C2. TASS reports Medvedev stated Russia highly values Nicaragua's decision to recognize annexed Ukrainian territories, demonstrating diplomatic C2. TASS reports Putin's statement on railway transportation to Laos via China, indicating strategic economic C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Defensive Posture: UA forces are maintaining defensive posture in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. UA Air Defense active against UAVs and missiles, successfully engaging targets over Kyiv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk, and other areas despite significant impacts. UA forces continue to hold main defensive line along Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal in Chasiv Yar, though RF claims complete liberation. New 16th Army Corps created for Kharkiv defense. Oleg Synyehubov reports over 205 hectares of Kharkiv Oblast were demined in a week, indicating ongoing efforts to secure territory. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides information on the situation in its operational zone, including defensive posture. Сили оборони Півдня України explicitly refutes RF claims of capturing Kamianske, indicating continued defense. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms refutation of Kamianske capture. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 thanks Ukrainian Armed Forces for holding the defense. DeepState reports RF has not occupied Chasiv Yar, confirming UA defensive posture. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and РБК-Україна report on the refutation of Chasiv Yar capture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Offensive Operations: Ukrainian "Predator" Brigade recruitment advertisements. Film "Road of Death" made about a Ukrainian GUR MO special forces operation. Successful FPV drone strikes by the 66th Separate Mechanized Brigade. Ukrainian engineering troops cleared nearly 3,000 hectares of mines. Successful shootdown of 5 RF reconnaissance UAVs. UA drone successfully targeted RF SA-13, 2S1 Gvozdika. "BULAVA" unit of Separate Presidential Brigade used a drone with a grenade launcher for the first time. STERNENKO reports young benefactor raised 10,000 UAH for "Shahedorez." A new 16th Army Corps is being created to defend Kharkiv Oblast. 10th OGShBr successfully repelled an RF assault on the Siversk direction, destroying 13 motorcycles. Ukrainian forces are actively seeking support for excavators. PPO was active over Kyiv, responding to current Shahed attacks and missile threats. UA reports 15 enemy drones destroyed by PPO in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. General Staff of UA Armed Forces reports approx. 1070 RF personnel losses in the last 24 hours. Silo oborony Півдya Ukrayiny issued an operational update for 08:00 (05:00Z). 47th Mechanized Brigade is conducting BZVP at its base. Ukrainian units are continuing to hold the main defensive line along the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal in Chasiv Yar, despite RF claims. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeastern direction. STERNENKO confirms 174 targets intercepted by "Shahedorez" project. 12th Azov Brigade videos show effective elimination of occupiers. UA Air Force/Operatyvnyi ZSU reports high number of intercepts (291/317 targets). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 317 aerial attack assets were engaged overnight and in the morning. ASTRA reports 5 direct missile hits and 21 drone hits, indicating some direct hits despite high interception rates. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows a successful FPV drone strike and a unique drone-aided rescue operation. SBU (Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) confirmed an FSB agent was detained for adjusting RF shelling of Kharkiv's energy infrastructure, demonstrating effective counter-espionage. Oleg Synyehubov reports over 205 hectares of Kharkiv Oblast were demined in a week, indicating effective engineering efforts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the NGU "Khartia" Brigade destroyed a Russian ground robotic complex. STERNENKO reports 315 FPV drones were procured through donations. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno shows the 93rd Mechanized Brigade effectively eliminating occupiers. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" reports significant number of demobilized RF officers. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 summarizes current situation in Kharkiv operational zone, including defensive actions. Сили оборони Півдня України refutes RF claims of capturing Kamianske. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms refutation of Kamianske capture. Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU/BEB exposed corruption in drone procurement, a successful internal anti-corruption effort. STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, and ASTRA confirm the Verkhovna Rada adopted the bill restoring independence of NABU and SAP. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the Rada vote. Операція Z confirms the Rada vote. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна confirm Rada increased defense spending, a successful legislative action. Zelenskiy / Official speaks with new Polish President. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on exposed large-scale falsified pesticide production. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video of a FPV drone strike on an RF soldier. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports liquidation of RF drone operator Daria Trofimova. STERNENKO shares a video of the 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade destroying enemy transport with fiber-optic drones. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a photo "Догрались?" (Have they played enough?) suggesting successful counter-offensive or strike against RF. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on the detention of a collaborator deputy in Zaporizhzhia and a former state employee who helped enemy target strategic enterprise. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Verkhovna Rada supported education bill for servicemen. Zelenskiy / Official signs laws for anti-corruption and defense financing. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares video of "Khartia" destroying a Russian ground robotic complex, liquidating personnel, and destroying an ammunition depot and gun. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares the same video. Оперативний ЗСУ reports additional 15 days of vacation for servicemen. РБК-Україна confirms this. Оперативний ЗСУ announces "Country of Engineers" initiative, indicating efforts to boost military-industrial capabilities. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports illegal seizure of 36.5 hectares of protected lands in Synevyr National Nature Park were illegally seized from state ownership, representing a success in exposing environmental crime. STERNENKO shares video of Phoenix unit hitting Russian transport on Konstantinivka direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of wounded RF soldier after mortar strike. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) shares photo messages regarding the transfer of military equipment to Ukrainian forces in Kryvyi Rih. Олександр Вілкул also shares photo messages about large shipments of aid for over 30 units from Kryvyi Rih to the front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Readiness: Recruitment campaigns and new policies for 25-year-old conscripts indicate efforts to maintain and build force readiness. General Staff's emphasis on training quality and Syrisky's directives reflect proactive measures to enhance readiness, including extended 51-day basic general military training. Agreements with US on weapons signify continued efforts to enhance readiness. 47th Mechanized Brigade promoting BZVP at their base indicates active training and force generation efforts. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports on changes to military registration for 25-year-old medical/pharmaceutical men, indicating adaptive force generation policies. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos of youth undergoing intensive fire training, indicating ongoing combat readiness efforts. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ and Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України share photos of 82nd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade soldiers training on communication, emphasizing communication and coordination skills essential for readiness. Оперативний ЗСУ reports additional 15 days of vacation for servicemen starting in August. РБК-Україна confirms this, citing Zelensky. Олександр Вілкул photos of a meeting regarding heating season preparation indicate administrative readiness efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:
  • Successes: GUR MO obtained legal evidence of Russian child abduction. 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a major RF mechanized assault, destroying 8 MBTs and 14 IFVs/APCs. Shootdown of 5 RF reconnaissance UAVs. UA drone units successfully targeted RF SA-13, 2S1 Gvozdika. President Zelensky highlighted successful GUR successes and agreements with the US on weapons. Creation of 16th Army Corps. 10th OGShBr repelled an RF assault, destroying 13 motorcycles. PPO successfully engaging UAVs and some missiles over various oblasts. Signing of airspace infrastructure restoration memorandum. General Staff of UA Armed Forces reports approx. 1070 RF personnel losses in the last 24 hours. The situation in Kryvyi Rih is reported as controlled. Drone strike on Penza Radio Plant (RF). Video footage from UA sources (Birds of Madyar) shows successful targeting and elimination of an RF soldier on the Pokrovsk axis. STERNENKO confirms 174 targets intercepted by "Shahedorez" project, highlighting successful counter-UAV efforts. 12th Azov Brigade demonstrates successful elimination of occupiers. High number of intercepts (291/317 targets) reported by Air Force/Operatyvnyi ZSU demonstrates significant air defense capability against massed attacks, despite some penetrations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 317 aerial attack assets were engaged overnight and in the morning. ASTRA reports 5 direct missile hits and 21 drone hits, indicating some direct hits despite high interception rates. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows a successful FPV drone strike and a unique drone-aided rescue operation. SBU (Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) confirmed an FSB agent was detained for adjusting RF shelling of Kharkiv's energy infrastructure, demonstrating effective counter-espionage. Oleg Synyehubov reports over 205 hectares of Kharkiv Oblast were demined in a week, indicating effective engineering efforts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the NGU "Khartia" Brigade destroyed a Russian ground robotic complex. STERNENKO reports 315 FPV drones were procured through donations. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno shows the 93rd Mechanized Brigade effectively eliminating occupiers. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" reports significant number of demobilized RF officers. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 summarizes current situation in Kharkiv operational zone, including defensive actions. Сили оборони Півдня України refutes RF claims of capturing Kamianske. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms refutation of Kamianske capture. Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU/BEB exposed corruption in drone procurement, a successful internal anti-corruption effort. STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, and ASTRA confirm the Verkhovna Rada adopted the bill restoring independence of NABU and SAP. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the Rada vote. Операція Z confirms the Rada vote. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна confirm Rada increased defense spending, a successful legislative action. Zelenskiy / Official speaks with new Polish President. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on exposed large-scale falsified pesticide production. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video of a FPV drone strike on an RF soldier. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports liquidation of RF drone operator Daria Trofimova. STERNENKO shares a video of the 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade destroying enemy transport with fiber-optic drones. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a photo "Догрались?" (Have they played enough?) suggesting successful counter-offensive or strike against RF. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on the detention of a collaborator deputy in Zaporizhzhia and a former state employee who helped enemy target strategic enterprise. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Verkhovna Rada supported education bill for servicemen. Zelenskiy / Official signs laws for anti-corruption and defense financing. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares video of "Khartia" destroying a Russian ground robotic complex, liquidating personnel, and destroying an ammunition depot and gun. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares the same video. Оперативний ЗСУ reports additional 15 days of vacation for servicemen. РБК-Україна confirms this. Оперативний ЗСУ announces "Country of Engineers" initiative, indicating efforts to boost military-industrial capabilities. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports illegal seizure of 36.5 hectares of protected lands in Synevyr National Nature Park, representing a success in exposing environmental crime. STERNENKO shares video of Phoenix unit hitting Russian transport on Konstantinivka direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of wounded RF soldier after mortar strike. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) shares photo messages regarding the transfer of military equipment to Ukrainian forces in Kryvyi Rih. Олександр Вілкул also shares photo messages about large shipments of aid for over 30 units from Kryvyi Rih to the front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Setbacks: Continued KAB/missile strikes (Vasyshcheve, Pavlohrad, Kyiv - 11 fatalities, 135 injured, 12 children, now 124 casualties overall in Kyiv) and ground advancements by RF on Kharkiv and Pokrovsk axes. RF claims of deep penetration into Pokrovsk residential areas and complete liberation of Chasiv Yar are significant setbacks if confirmed, though UA denies Chasiv Yar fall. Ukrainian 55th Separate Artillery Brigade facing shortages of trained personnel and technical means. Deployment of Shipovnik-Aero EW system presents a new and significant threat. Reduced water supply to four cities in Donetsk Oblast. Kyiv experienced widespread impacts, fires, and casualties from the recent Shahed and ballistic/cruise missile attacks, indicating continued vulnerability. Damage to railway infrastructure in Kyiv represents a setback to logistics. Two casualties reported in Zaporizhzhia region from RF attack (17-year-old boy, 64-year-old woman). Rubezh NGU Brigade reports destroyed property and equipment, indicating recent losses. The loss of a second battalion commander in 5 days, as reported by Butusov Plus, suggests significant leadership attrition in some units. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on internal corruption in quadcopter procurement, impacting resource efficiency. Zelenskiy / Official reports 16 killed and 43 wounded from a bombing of a prison in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. РБК-Україна reports MP Dmytro Kostiuk leaving "Servant of the People" faction, indicating internal political divisions. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports enemy DRGs operating deep in Pokrovsk, indicating a security penetration. Strike on Kramatorsk center, destroying residential building, signifies a setback in civilian protection. DeepState reports occupation of Kam'yans'ke, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which, if confirmed, would be a setback. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports almost 700 hectares of grain destroyed by fires from shelling, indicating agricultural losses. РБК-Україна reports 10 killed in Kyiv. Оперативний ЗСУ reports 11 killed in Kyiv. Fighterbomber reports two RF pilots/crew killed today. Два майора reports civilian injured by UA drone attack in Bryansk Oblast. Операция Z shares a video about the crash of a US F-35 fighter jet, attempting to frame it as a military setback for the US. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Critical Needs: Shortages in trained personnel and technical means for 55th Separate Artillery Brigade. Continuous demand for military personnel. Immediate resupply of ATGM systems and FPV drones to Avdiivka axis. Urgent need for more air defense assets (interceptors for Shahed, reactive drones, ballistic/cruise missiles), particularly given the scale and impact of the current Kyiv attack. Urgent need for excavators for rapid position-equipping. Rubezh NGU Brigade is actively fundraising for equipment and property restoration. STERNENKO reports 315 FPV drones were purchased in the last day through public donations, highlighting continued reliance on public support for critical equipment. STERNENKO reports "donations did not fall, but needs grew" due to very high combat intensity and difficult situation in Pokrovsk. РБК-Україна shares a fundraising video for evacuation vehicle repair, highlighting needs for logistical support. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of RF 7th Division appealing for drones and Starlink, which highlights their own resource needs that our forces could exploit. Оперативний ЗСУ announces the "Country of Engineers" initiative, indicating a need to expand technical and industrial capabilities. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) shares photo messages regarding the transfer of military equipment to Ukrainian forces in Kryvyi Rih, including a variety of drones, vehicles, and thermal imagers, indicating successful efforts to meet some critical needs. Олександр Вілкул also shares photo messages about large shipments of aid from Kryvyi Rih for over 30 units, including various equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Financial Aid: Pending NABU/SAP bill vote crucial for unblocking EU financial aid. Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal warns of potential salary arrears for military personnel from August 15th if budget amendments are not passed today. Continued need for external military aid (US agreements). US senators proposing European-funded weapon fund for Kyiv. STERNENKO reports the US Treasury imposed its largest sanctions package on Iran since 2018, which aligns with international efforts to counter destabilizing actors. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна confirm Rada increased defense spending by 412.3 billion UAH. Zelenskiy / Official signs law on defense financing, indicating this has been addressed. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Germany approved a budget project for 2026 with record military aid to Ukraine. РБК-Україна reports the dollar has fallen and the euro is below 48 hryvnias, indicating economic developments. РБК-Україна reports no plans for EU funding freeze. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports children of a deceased serviceman are not receiving payments, indicating a social support constraint impacting military families. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on 150M UAH damages from corruption in Zaporizhzhia and Transcarpathia, indicating financial losses due to internal issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Anti-Corruption Measures: Continued delay in appointing BEB director. Ongoing anti-corruption efforts highlight persistent challenge. Операция Z propagates claims that the head of the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office admitted a decline in US interest and "political revenge" from Kyiv, a narrative likely intended to discourage external aid and support for reforms. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports successful internal anti-corruption measures against forestry officials in Zhytomyr Oblast, indicating continued focus and constraints on state resources due to corruption. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on a scheme for purchasing quadcopters at inflated prices, indicating an internal constraint on efficient resource allocation. Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU/BEB exposed chief financier stealing funds for drones, confirming active anti-corruption efforts. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on exposed large-scale falsified pesticide production, an ongoing internal challenge. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on collaborator deputy in Zaporizhzhia and former state employee who helped enemy target strategic enterprise, highlighting the ongoing challenge of collaboration. Zelenskiy / Official signs law guaranteeing independent operation of anti-corruption bodies. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports illegal seizure of 36.5 hectares of protected lands, highlighting continued internal challenges. Офіс Генерального прокурора shares photo messages on corruption investigations in Zaporizhzhia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Disinformation: RF continues to push narratives blaming Ukraine for civilian casualties, false flag incidents, and portraying Ukrainian losses/weaknesses (e.g., claimed elimination of foreign mercenaries near Pokrovsk). Amplifying internal Ukrainian issues (mobilization, corruption, protests) and discrediting Ukrainian leadership. Openly celebrating attacks on "enemy capital" (Kyiv), mocking UA air defenses, and explicitly linking strikes to retaliation or Western policy. Exaggerating territorial gains (e.g., Pokrovsk penetration, Chasiv Yar liberation). Distributing videos of alleged torture of RF soldiers. RF sources are reinforcing claims of Chasiv Yar capture with video of flag raising. TASS reporting on Kymakovsky's claim of Kostiantynivka defense collapse is intended to demoralize UA forces. The unverified claim of US nuclear weapons in the UK by an RF propaganda outlet is likely a disinfo attempt to escalate tensions. TASS attributes "Air Danger" in Penza to Ukrainian UAVs. RF sources likely to link Kyiv attacks to perceived Western provocations, as seen in the Operatyvnyi ZSU message attributing it to Trump's deadline. Medvedev's public comments, mentioning "Dead Hand" and calling Trump "nervous," are high-level information operations to project power and deter Western interference. ARCHENGEL SPETSNAZ spreads unverified claims about SBU suspecting Mexican cartel members in UA forces to learn FPV drone skills, likely to discredit UA forces. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition frames the liberation of Chasiv Yar as a decisive battle for Donbass. Alex Parker Returns amplifies this, including Russian flags planted in the city, and also focuses on Trump's statements about India's economy to spread a narrative of Western internal discord. ТАСС promotes its report on the conviction of a couple for collecting military data for Ukraine, aimed at highlighting Ukrainian "terrorist" activities. Alex Parker Returns comments on the Crocus attack, stating experts concluded it was financially, not ideologically, motivated, potentially deflecting from extremist motivations and portraying perpetrators as "biological drones" manipulated by "customers." Рыбарь shares a video about Moldova, potentially aiming to influence internal politics or international relations. "Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» further amplifies Medvedev's aggressive rhetoric with an image of him with middle fingers. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian media published an article with a genocidal headline: "There is no other option: no one should be left alive in Ukraine," indicating extreme dehumanizing propaganda. Басурин о главном displays open defiance to Trump's ultimatum. Alex Parker Returns attempts to discredit Zelenskyy's online address at the OSCE conference by claiming the audio was off. Colonelcassad promotes images of new Ukrainian drone munitions, likely to portray Ukraine as a growing threat or to justify RF actions. TASS (Maria Zakharova) dismisses the SBU's warrant for Tina Kandelaki as a "cherche la femme" operation. WarGonzo uses a video of an injured youth to claim exploitation of Russian teenagers for sabotage. Военкор Котенок uses images of cultural destruction to portray Azerbaijani aggression. Филолог в засаде spreads narratives about Polish/Ukrainian special services in Belarus in the context of UAV attacks. Alex Parker Returns celebrates harm to a UA veteran in Kryvyi Rih, indicating direct exploitation of individual incidents for morale-degradation. Операция Z and Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" disseminate videos portraying internal Ukrainian political conflicts (Rada fight) as a "circus" to discredit Ukrainian governance. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС explicitly states "Два майора" is "lying," indicating internal friction and counter-narratives within the pro-RF information space. Филолог в засаде questions the basis of RF loss analysis, indicating skepticism within pro-RF circles. Рыбарь discusses the "Turkish trace" in the Crocus attack, attempting to link it to external radicalism. Colonelcassad frames the NABU/SAP vote as Western-imposed "external control." Операция Z portrays internal Ukrainian political dissent with a "This is the End!" message, aiming to highlight internal instability. TASS reports about the losses of "elite units" in Chasiv Yar as a propaganda claim. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on the liquidation of RF drone operator Daria Trofimova, framing it as an intelligence success against an RF infiltration attempt. Два майора shares videos of Crimea Head Aksyonov discussing foreign labor restrictions, highlighting state-controlled narratives on internal policy. TASS reports Moldovan President Sandu's call to migrants, subtly pointing out her omission of Russian migrants. TASS reports Patrushev's claim of Western piracy, further aiming to discredit the West. Alex Parker Returns with "August will be a turning point" is a clear propaganda statement. Colonelcassad shares a video of a detained Crimean man, using him as an example of internal dissent and framing his pro-UA views as "Nazi slogans" and threats, typical of RF information operations to demonize opposition. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides a photo of Russian propaganda openly calling for war crimes and genocide against Ukraine, directly illustrating the genocidal rhetoric. WarGonzo shares a video titled "Battle for NABU: protests, fight in Rada and new law," explicitly framing Ukrainian political processes as chaotic and negative. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares an image mocking RF propaganda regarding their equipment, indicating Ukrainian counter-IO. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of Ukrainian internal political discourse, indicating attempts to show democratic transparency. ТАСС reports Patrushev's statement that NATO is turning the Baltic into a zone of military-political instability and that US and Japan could escalate in the Bering Strait, which are aggressive, alarmist narratives designed to justify RF actions and portray external threats. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники post on "Urgent service is dangerous for life. Replace it with an alternative" can be interpreted as RF internal propaganda to encourage contract service over conscription or even subtly undermine conscription, or as a genuine informational message about alternative service options. Операция Z claims Nicaragua officially recognized new territories of Ukraine as part of Russia. Colonelcassad reiterates this claim. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/ТИEDОТТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) shares a photo related to Zaluzhny becoming a "Vogue model," likely a meme or IO aimed at discrediting Ukrainian leadership. Басурин о главном shares a meme-like image potentially mocking Western leaders regarding reparations. ТАСС shares a photo claiming Chasiv Yar liberation and strategic importance, reinforcing narrative. DeepState directly refutes the RF Chasiv Yar claim, labelling it a "flag-waving" action, a direct counter-propaganda effort. Операция Z shares a photo and caption claiming "Russian Gerans rip AFU to shreds," amplifying their successes and undermining UA morale. Colonelcassad shares a photo of the Rada vote, framing it as "external control." Филолог в засаде shares photos of an official document titled "refusal to initiate criminal proceedings," indicating internal legal processes that could be used to suppress dissent or manipulate narratives regarding military incidents. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on the death of Kirill Ocean, framing it as a mercenary death, likely to discourage foreign fighters and demoralize UA. ASTRA posts on Putin's new restrictive laws, which are part of the IO to control information. Оперативний ЗСУ posts "Привет, чебурнет!" (Hello, Cheburnet!) likely in response to Putin's new VPN law, indicating UA counter-IO efforts against RF internal control. ТАСС reports Medvedev stated Russia highly values Nicaragua's decision to recognize annexed Ukrainian territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - noting medium confidence on Nicaragua claim, and recognizing meme nature of some IO)
• UA Counter-Propaganda: GUR MO's release of legal evidence of child abductions. Ukrainian officials countering negative narratives about mobilization. Transparently addressing corruption issues. Direct engagement with families of POWs. Reporting on RF attacks on civilian infrastructure and humanitarian crises (e.g., Kyiv casualties, Luhansk hospital queues). Officials like Minister Klimenko are providing real-time updates from strike sites. Publishing data on RF losses. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration continuing daily minute of silence to reinforce national unity and commemorate fallen. DeepState map contradicting RF Chasiv Yar claims serves as a critical counter-narrative. Zelenskiy's public address and images of destruction will reinforce public outrage and calls for more aid, and his statement about the attack overloading PPO sets a clear narrative. The "two walls rule" narrative shared by a journalist highlights a proactive civilian adaptation to attacks. STERNENKO's call to action to "convert rage into help" shows an attempt to channel negative sentiment into productive support. KMA's direct reporting on casualties and fear for children reflects the deep impact on public morale. STERNENKO's post showing damaged Kyiv mosque serves as direct counter-propaganda, highlighting RF's indiscriminate attacks on civilian and religious infrastructure. РБК-Україна reporting the refutation of Chasiv Yar capture is a direct counter-narrative to RF claims, as is Silu Oborony Pivdnya Ukraine's refutation of Kamianske capture. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports SBU drones hit the plant in Penza, a confirmed counter-strike. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна confirm the SBU strike on Penza. Координаційний штаб з питань поводлення з військовополоненими conducting meetings with families of missing/captured servicemen in Kharkiv Oblast demonstrates transparent engagement and support. РБК-Україна shares videos of protests in Kyiv for NABU/SAP independence, indicating open public discourse. Оперативний ЗСУ and STERNENKO also report on these protests. Zelenskiy / Official directly reports on the Zaporizhzhia prison bombing, explicitly blaming Russia for targeting a civilian facility. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 announces a new partnership to show continued governance and support for occupied cities. Zelenskiy / Official delivers a strong speech advocating for regime change in Russia, confiscation of frozen assets, and continued international unity to end the war, a robust counter-narrative to Russian expansionism. STERNENKO attributes the success of NABU/SAP independence restoration to public pressure. РБК-Україна reports on the passage of the NABU/SAP law. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on the Rada vote on defense spending. РБК-Україна confirms Rada increased defense spending. Zelenskiy / Official speaks with new Polish President, aiming to reinforce international partnerships. РБК-Україна shares a fundraising video for evacuation vehicle repair, using public appeal to gather support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS photos of Kyiv rescue efforts illustrate public suffering and resilience. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and РБК-Україна share video of a girl surviving an attack in Kyiv, serving as an emotional counter to RF brutality. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 thanks Ukrainian Armed Forces for holding the defense. DeepState directly refutes RF claims on Chasiv Yar, providing counter-narrative and a photo. РБК-Україна confirms no EU funding freeze, countering RF attempts to undermine confidence. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ignat's statement refuting fakes about reactive Shaheds not being shot down, a direct counter-disinformation effort. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими shares photo messages about an online meeting with families of the 77th Separate Airmobile Brigade. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) shares a photo message announcing August 1st as a day of mourning in Kyiv for the victims of the July 31st attack, an act of public acknowledgment and grief. РБК-Україна shares photo messages about the new law on NABU and SAP being published, demonstrating transparency in governance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukrainian Public Sentiment: Morale impacted by continued RF strikes and ground advancements. The current high casualty count (11 dead, 135 injured, 12 children injured in Kyiv, now 124 casualties overall in Kyiv) from missile attacks will severely test civilian morale and increase demands for effective air defense and protection. Public support for recruitment and fundraising for military equipment remains strong. Protests for NABU/SAP independence indicate a public desire for internal reform. The focus on missing persons in Kyiv will further impact morale and trust in protective measures. Zelenskiy's public address and images of destruction will reinforce public outrage and calls for more aid. The "two walls rule" narrative shared by a journalist highlights a proactive civilian adaptation to attacks. STERNENKO's call to action to "convert rage into help" shows an attempt to channel negative sentiment into productive support. KMA's direct reporting on casualties and fear for children reflects the deep impact on public morale. STERNENKO's post on the damaged mosque in Kyiv will likely fuel religious outrage against RF actions. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a post reflecting strong negative sentiment towards Russia. РБК-Україна shares videos/photos of protests for NABU/SAP independence in Kyiv, indicating active public engagement in governance. Оперативний ЗСУ and STERNENKO also show these protests, indicating public concern over internal governance. ASTRA reports on complaints from Penza residents about closed shelters during drone attacks, indicating public dissatisfaction with safety measures. STERNENKO reports donations have not fallen, but needs have grown due to very high combat intensity and difficult situation in Pokrovsk, indicating sustained but stressed public support. Координаційний штаб з питань поводлення з військовополоненими conducting meetings with families of missing/captured servicemen reflects public concern for service members. Два майора reports on Ukrainian social media offering mobile shelters, suggesting public adaptation to threats. РБК-Україна fundraising video for repairs to evacuation vehicles indicates public support for frontline logistics. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS photos of Kyiv rescue efforts illustrate public suffering and resilience. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and РБК-Україна share video of a girl surviving an attack in Kyiv, highlighting resilience and the human cost. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 thanks Ukrainian Armed Forces for holding the defense, suggesting a unified public and military. РБК-Україна shares video of the Kyiv aftermath, showing the emotional impact. Олексій Білошицький shares bodycam footage of patrol police response in Kyiv, highlighting first responders and ongoing civilian danger, impacting public trust in safety. РБК-Україна reports Kyiv declares tomorrow, August 1st, a day of mourning, reflecting public grief. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms Kyiv declares tomorrow, August 1st, a day of mourning. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) shares a photo message announcing August 1st as a day of mourning in Kyiv for the victims of the July 31st attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian Public Sentiment: RF government attempting to control public discourse. Public concerns about social issues (migration, forced returns to conflict zones in Belgorod, internal security incidents involving servicemen). Aggressive rhetoric from pro-RF channels may be a tactic to rally hardline support and suppress internal dissent. Celebration of Kyiv strikes by military bloggers is intended to boost internal morale. Appeals for public crypto donations engage civilian support. New laws regarding foreigners in election campaigning indicate tightening internal control. Sever.Realii's comment that "the entire community of Russians can be declared extremist" reflects growing concern over internal repression and shrinking civil liberties. The reporting on Trump-Medvedev exchanges suggests some public interest in geopolitical developments and possibly a desire for strong leadership. ТАСС reports on internal security measures and court sentences, potentially intended to deter dissent. News from Moscow claiming "Russians have become richer" is an attempt to boost internal morale and loyalty. TASS reports car dealerships closing due to weak demand, and Новости Москвы reports chicken price increases, indicating potential public dissatisfaction with economic conditions, and notes the Lada Iskra won't have AC because "not all Russians need it", a likely attempt to normalize reduced quality of life. WarGonzo reports on a youth detained for arsons, indicating continued public vulnerability to external influence. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on the poor treatment of families of liquidated servicemen, indicating potential for public discontent, and amplifies the Russian Z-blogger claims of 60,000 Russian teenagers working for Ukraine via WhatsApp, exposing internal fears of dissent. Операция Z also reports on the arrest of a teenager in Ufa, indicating continued internal security concerns. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on the complete failure of water supply organization in Donbas, indicating significant public discontent in occupied territories. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reporting on a mobilized invalid receiving a ruined apartment highlights poor veteran care and potential discontent. Новости Москвы reports school supply costs, indicating general economic pressures. TASS reports Central Bank considering ending Visa/Mastercard support, which could cause public concern. Два майора reports on Crimea's Aksyonov decree regarding foreign labor restrictions, which may generate mixed public reactions. Sever.Realii reports on a high-profile corruption arrest of a theater director, potentially impacting public trust. Mash на Донбассе video on water collection in Makeevka highlights civilian struggle in occupied territory, potentially impacting morale. Colonelcassad shares video of a detained Crimean man, used to demonstrate internal crackdown on dissent. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники post on "Urgent service is dangerous for life. Replace it with an alternative" could indicate public anxieties around military service. Глеб Никитин reports increasing public Wi-Fi access in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, which could be an attempt to improve public services or control information. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports children of a deceased serviceman are not receiving payments, highlighting severe social support failures and potential public anger. Mash на Донbasse reports civilian casualties from a road accident in Ilovaisk involving military personnel, indicating potential friction points between military presence and civilian life. AV БогомаZ reports a civilian injured by Ukrainian attacks, aiming to invoke public sympathy and anger towards Ukraine. Fighterbomber expresses grief for two deceased pilots/crew, indicating impact on internal military morale. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/ТИEDОТТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) expresses strong negative sentiment and anger ("saatanan paskakasa" - "damn pile of shit") without specifying target, potentially indicative of broader frustrations. Kotsnews raises concerns about a lawsuit against Saponkov, a military blogger/volunteer, which suggests internal tensions among pro-war circles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Support for Ukraine: GUR MO's evidence of child abductions likely strengthening international support. NABU/SAP bill vote critical for EU financial aid. President Zelensky's agreements with the US strong signal of continued support. US Senators proposing European-funded weapon fund for Kyiv. Memorandum on restoring Ukrainian airspace infrastructure indicates international cooperation. STERNENKO reports the US Treasury imposed its largest sanctions package on Iran since 2018, which aligns with international efforts to counter destabilizing actors. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy's address at the "Helsinki+50" conference, emphasizing the need for regime change in Russia, aiming to galvanize international support. Zelenskiy / Official continues to advocate for international support, sanctions, and confiscation of Russian assets. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Операція Z, РБК-Україна, and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm the Rada vote on NABU/SAP, signaling continued commitment to reforms and international aid. Zelenskiy / Official's call with new Polish President, who wishes success, indicates continued strong bilateral relations. Военкор Котенок reports on Azerbaijan's reaffirmed "unwavering support and solidarity" with Ukraine, a positive diplomatic development. РБК-Україна shares a photo of Zelenskyy and the Polish President. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Verkhovna Rada supporting bill on education for military servicemen, indicating domestic support for personnel and potentially attracting international aid for social programs. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Germany approved a budget project for 2026 with record military aid to Ukraine. РБК-Україна reports no plans for EU funding freeze, confirming continued financial support. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Indian state-owned oil refineries are suspending purchases of Russian oil, which could impact RF's economy. DeepState reports EU preparing massive defense program of €127 billion, a significant sign of long-term support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Challenges for Ukraine: Continued delay in appointing BEB director. Reported shortages in 55th Separate Artillery Brigade highlighting persistent need for assistance. Rubezh NGU Brigade's fundraising effort highlights ongoing equipment losses and the need for sustained support. Операция Z disseminates the claim that the head of the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office admitted a decline in US interest and "political revenge" from Kyiv, a narrative likely intended to undermine confidence in international support. Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal's warning about potential military salary arrears highlights a critical domestic financial challenge that could impact international perception and military stability. Операция Z reports Hungary claiming EU weapons for Ukraine are part of a secret EU-US tariff deal, indicating a potential diplomatic challenge and internal EU dissent exploited by RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian International Relations: RF attempting to shape international narratives by accusing Ukraine of "terrorism." Reinforcing geopolitical alliances (Syria, Nicaragua). Highlighting Turkish naval uncrewed systems. Portraying Western disunity. Discussing space cooperation with NASA to project an image of constructive international engagement. The unverified claim of US nuclear weapons in the UK by an RF propaganda outlet is designed to provoke international reaction and sow discord. Trump's public comments critical of Medvedev are being reported by RF channels, indicating interest in political developments. Medvedev's direct response to Trump, mentioning nuclear capabilities, aims to project strength and deter international pressure. ТАСС reports on the F-35 crash in California, which Russian media may use to subtly imply Western military vulnerabilities. Alex Parker Returns further amplifies Trump's criticism of India's economy, likely to sow discord among Western partners. TASS reports the Syrian Foreign Minister's statement on interaction between Damascus and Moscow, highlighting continued diplomatic efforts. TASS reports Aeroflot resuming flights to Tehran, indicating strengthened ties with Iran. Colonelcassad reports an Azerbaijani mercenary observing Kyiv strikes, possibly an attempt to imply broader support or alliance. TASS reports Lukashenka's statement regarding Russia guaranteeing Belarusian security. TASS reports the Syrian Minister of Defense planning to meet his Russian counterpart. TASS reports Putin's talks with Laotian President, indicating continued diplomatic engagement outside of Western bloc. TASS reports Patrushev's claim on Western countries discussing piracy, intended to frame the West as lawless. ТАСС reports Patrushev's statement that NATO is turning the Baltic into a zone of military-political instability and that US and Japan could escalate in the Bering Strait, which are aggressive, alarmist narratives designed to justify RF actions and portray external threats. Операция Z claims Nicaragua officially recognized new territories of Ukraine as part of Russia. Colonelcassad reiterates this claim. TASS reports Trump could offer RF a "sledgehammer" to destroy Western barriers, according to Politico, showing engagement with Western political narratives. TASS reports Moldova intends to solve the Transnistrian problem only after the withdrawal of the Russian Operational Group of Forces from the unrecognized republic, indicating a point of diplomatic tension. TASS reports Estonia does not plan to recognize Palestine, highlighting a different diplomatic stance within Europe. Операция Z reports Hungary claiming EU weapons for Ukraine are part of secret EU-US tariff deal, indicating RF attempts to sow discord in Western alliances. TASS reports Peskov stated BRICS work is not oriented against other countries, aiming to mitigate perceived threats from this alliance. TASS reports Medvedev stated Russia highly values Nicaragua's decision to recognize annexed Ukrainian territories. Alex Parker Returns shares a photo of Belousov meeting his Syrian counterpart, aiming to project strong diplomatic and military relations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - noting medium confidence on Nicaragua claim)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

• MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action):
  • RF Ground Operations: RF will maintain high offensive pressure on the Pokrovsk axis, attempting to consolidate gains and conduct further mechanized assaults towards Prohres within the next 24-48 hours. They will continue urban penetration attempts into Pokrovsk, including the use of DRGs. RF will leverage the claimed liberation of Chasiv Yar for both strategic advantage and propaganda, and likely attempt further offensive operations from this foothold, potentially towards Kostiantynivka, despite UA denials. RF will continue localized advances in Kharkiv region and Donetsk Oblast. RF will continue to probe Ukrainian defenses along other Eastern axes, especially Sumy, including further reconnaissance UAV deployments. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Air/Missile/UAV Operations: RF will continue daily KAB strikes (including FAB-1500) on Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and other frontline regions. Expect continued, potentially larger, waves of Shahed (Geran) UAVs targeting urban and industrial centers, including Kyiv and Western Ukraine. RF will continue repeated layered aerial attacks on Kyiv, immediately following drone waves with ballistic and cruise missile launches to overwhelm and penetrate air defenses, potentially employing reactive UAVs and cluster munitions. RF will continue targeted drone strikes on industrial facilities within Russia, for attribution to Ukraine, or targeting legitimate military-industrial sites within RF. RF will continue claiming high rates of destruction of UA UAV control points and drones. Given the confirmed strikes on railway infrastructure in Kyiv and Pavlohrad, RF will likely prioritize further degradation of Ukrainian logistics networks. RF will continue strikes on urban centers like Kramatorsk. RF will continue drone attacks across the border into Russian oblasts like Bryansk, potentially resulting in civilian casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Hybrid Operations: RF will intensify information warfare, including false flag operations and narratives aimed at discrediting Ukraine's mobilization efforts and international image, with increasingly aggressive rhetoric, particularly through military bloggers, who will openly mock Ukrainian air defenses and threaten future mass attacks, celebrating hits on civilian residential areas. Internal repression and information control measures will continue to tighten within Russia, including measures against perceived foreign influence and the targeting of youth for perceived pro-Ukrainian activities. RF will seek to exploit any emerging fissures within Western alliances, and amplify statements from external actors that support their narrative. Expect increased focus on narratives of Ukrainian defensive collapse and Western aggression/nuclear proliferation, with high-level figures like Medvedev engaging directly in rhetorical escalation. The proliferation of genocidal rhetoric in Russian media will continue, aimed at dehumanizing Ukrainians and justifying further atrocities. RF will continue to exploit internal Ukrainian political and social issues (e.g., Rada conflicts, veteran casualties) to undermine morale and unity. RF will attempt to garner further diplomatic recognition for its illegally annexed territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action):
  • RF Breakthrough on Pokrovsk Axis: RF achieves a decisive breakthrough on the Pokrovsk axis, leading to a rapid collapse of Ukrainian defenses and significant territorial gains, compromising Ukraine's defensive integrity in the east. This could be exacerbated by renewed mechanized assaults and urban infiltration. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Massive Civilian Casualty Event in Kyiv/Kharkiv/Zaporizhzhia/Kramatorsk: RF conducts a highly destructive and targeted missile/KAB/Shahed strike on a high-density civilian area, resulting in a large number of casualties and overwhelming local emergency services. The recent strike on Kyiv (135 casualties, 11 fatalities) significantly elevates the risk of this scenario repeating or escalating. The strike on Kramatorsk also highlights this risk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Successful Canal Crossing (Chasiv Yar) under EW Cover: RF forces successfully establish a significant bridgehead across the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal under the cover of the Shipovnik-Aero EW system, leading to the rapid outflanking or encirclement of UA defenders. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:
  • Kyiv Air Defense & Civilian Protection: Immediate and ongoing vigilance and rapid response are critical within the next 0-6 hours due to the confirmed ballistic missile strike and rising casualties. Prioritize rapid damage assessment and humanitarian assistance. Continue to manage expectations regarding further attacks. Immediately dispatch additional emergency services and medical teams to reported residential impacts in Sviatoshynskyi and Solomianskyi districts for search and rescue operations, expecting high and rising casualties (now 135 injured, 11 fatalities), and focusing on the 10 reported missing persons. Establish emergency traffic reroutes around affected areas in Kyiv. Conduct rapid BDA on damaged railway infrastructure and implement immediate repair plans to minimize logistical disruption. Integrate DSNS aviation and other civilian emergency assets for rapid response to large-scale civilian impact events. New MiG-31K launch requires immediate vigilance against potential Kinzhal missile strikes on Kyiv within the next 15-30 minutes. Kyiv has declared tomorrow, August 1st, a day of mourning; coordinate civilian support activities around this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar Defenses & EW Countermeasures: Immediate ISR tasking and rapid development/dissemination of tactical guidance for drone operators against Shipovnik-Aero EW are critical within the next 24 hours. Immediate verification of RF claims of Chasiv Yar liberation is paramount for defensive adjustments. Monitor for any signs of direct pressure on Kostiantynivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pokrovsk Axis: Critical decisions on reinforcements and defensive lines are required within the next 24-72 hours, especially in light of claimed RF advances, resumed mechanized assaults, and reported deep DRG penetrations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NABU/SAP Bill Vote: The Rada vote on the NABU and SAP bill is a crucial decision point, now confirmed adopted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare Response: Ukraine's ability to effectively counter RF disinformation and aggressive rhetoric will be critical over the next 24-72 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Avdiivka Materiel Resupply: Immediate resupply of ATGM systems and additional FPV drones to the 47th Mechanized Brigade and adjacent units is critical within the next 12-24 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pavlohrad Monitoring: Initiate immediate ISR collection and analysis on Pavlohrad to understand RF interest or potential plans within the next 24-48 hours, especially given the recent strike on agricultural and transport enterprises. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Sumy Oblast UAV Response: Immediate action to intercept the detected reconnaissance UAV in Sumy Oblast and enhance local air defense measures within the next 0-6 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Military Salary Arrears: Immediate action on budget amendments is required today to prevent military salary arrears from August 15th. The Rada has now increased defense spending by 412.3 billion UAH, addressing this issue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Strategic Shift (August): Alex Parker Returns explicitly states "August will be a turning point." This may indicate an anticipated RF strategic shift or major offensive push in the coming month. Maintain heightened vigilance for any indicators of major RF force regrouping or deployment shifts over the next 72 hours and into early August. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Kramatorsk Civilian Protection: Immediate damage assessment and humanitarian assistance are required in Kramatorsk, particularly for the destroyed residential building, within the next 0-6 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• RF Objectives on Pokrovsk Axis: Specific RF military objectives beyond Rodinskoye and Myrnohrad, and the true extent of the claimed "pinching" movement, are unclear. The depth and strength of claimed RF penetration into Pokrovsk residential areas requires urgent verification, as do claims of foreign mercenary elimination and the reported deep DRG penetrations. The veracity and extent of RF advances near Zelenaya Dolina and Karpovka need independent verification. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Chasiv Yar Claims Verification: Independent, verifiable confirmation of the situation in Chasiv Yar, especially the southern parts of the city, to definitively refute or confirm RF MoD's claim of full liberation. The veracity of the latest RF claim of UA "factual loss" of Chasiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF UGV Production/Deployment: Full scale of RF UGV production and their planned integration into wider ground operations remains unknown. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Naval Modernization: Impact of reported collapse of RF key fleet renewal project on their Black Sea Fleet capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Personnel Mobilization: Extent of resistance to conscription within RF and the effectiveness of new recruitment tactics is unclear. Effectiveness of local recruitment in occupied territories. The full context and implications of Fighterbomber's report of two "best" (pilots/crew) being killed today. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Nature of French Cyberattack: Exact perpetrators, methods, and full extent of data exfiltration or system damage are unknown. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF "Italmas" UAV Development: Information on the capabilities, production, and intended deployment of the "Italmas" UAV is extremely limited. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Drone Interception Capability: Details of RF's "Yolka" air defense drone capabilities are unknown. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• GPS Spoofing System Identification: The specific type and location of the sophisticated RF EW system responsible for GPS spoofing in Zaporizhzhia are still unidentified. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF "Electric Scooter" Doctrine: The scale of deployment and intended tactical doctrine for "combat electric scooters" is unclear. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Impact of Trump's Ultimatum: Immediate and long-term impact of Trump's "10-day deadline" on RF strategic decision-making, Western unity, and international support for Ukraine remains highly uncertain. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• UA Public Donation Trends: The specific reasons for the reported "dip" in public donations and its broader implications for public morale and sustained support require further analysis. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Specifics of current Kyiv Shahed/Missile attack: Precise number of drones, primary targets (beyond general residential and industrial areas, and Zhuliany), and full BDA on all impact sites are still being assessed. The full BDA on over 27 affected locations in Kyiv. The precise number and nature of hits on industrial targets in Kyiv claimed by Poddubny needs BDA. The full extent of damage to railway infrastructure in Kyiv requires detailed assessment. The specific nature of "reactive Shaheds" requires further technical analysis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Laser Weapon System ("Posokh" project): Independent verification of its capabilities, stage of development, and deployment timeline. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• RF Interest in Pavlohrad: The exact nature of RF's interest in Pavlohrad (e.g., intelligence collection, targeting, future operational planning) beyond the recent strike. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• RF Thermal Imager Shortfall: The extent of the thermal imager shortfall within RF forces, and the effectiveness of public donation campaigns in mitigating this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• US Nuclear Weapons in UK: Independent verification of the claim regarding the delivery of US nuclear weapons to the UK. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian Battalion Commander Losses: The exact circumstances and implications of the reported loss of a second RF battalion commander in 5 days, including impact on unit cohesion and chain of command effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• RF Aid Fund Data: Details on the specific quantities and types of supplies being delivered through "SVO Aid Fund" by Colonelcassad's videos, and the extent to which these complement or compensate for official military logistics. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Impact of "Reactive Shaheds": Detailed technical analysis of "reactive Shaheds" to understand their capabilities (speed, maneuverability, payload) and potential countermeasures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Ground Robotic Complex Capabilities: Further details on the capabilities, numbers, and tactical deployment of Russian ground robotic complexes after the reported destruction by NGU "Khartia" Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Specifics of "MADHAWK L GENEHC[redacted]E20148" Drone: Identification and capabilities of this specific drone model and its operational unit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kharkiv POW/MIA Data: Detailed breakdown of the numbers and units of missing and captured servicemen discussed in the Kharkiv Oblast meetings. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Donetsk Locust/Grasshopper Infestation Impact: The actual impact of the reported locust/grasshopper invasion in Donetsk on local agriculture, public health, and morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Ukrainian Drone Munitions: Technical specifications, production rate, and planned tactical integration of the new drone munitions allegedly supported by Denmark. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Nature of Russian Internal Security Arrests of Youth: The extent to which arrested teenagers are genuinely involved in sabotage/data collection versus being victims of FSB provocations or propaganda, and the scale of this phenomenon. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Accuracy of RF Claims on Belarusian Sabotage: Independent verification of RF claims regarding Polish and Ukrainian special services operating in Belarus, beyond propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Impact of Kryvyi Rih Incident: The specific details of the incident in Kryvyi Rih, the condition of the veteran, and the public reaction, to assess the actual impact on morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Motivation for Rada Conflict: The specific political disagreements and personal dynamics driving the conflict in the Verkhovna Rada, and its potential impact on legislative output. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Details of "Batyr" UAV: Specific capabilities, origin, and deployment of the "Batyr" UAV reportedly used in the Penza Radio Plant strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Border Point Closures in Rostov: The specific reason for the border point closures in Rostov Oblast, whether due to security threats, logistical issues, or other factors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Specifics of 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade POW/MIA: Detailed breakdown of the numbers and units of missing and captured servicemen discussed in the meeting with families of the 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Impact of MiG-31K Sortie: Exact flight path, potential targets, and if any Kinzhal missiles were launched during the latest MiG-31K sortie. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF "Motiv" Anti-Tank Weapon: Detailed technical specifications, production status, and tactical deployment of the new "Motiv" anti-tank system. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Effectiveness of Max Messenger Transition in RF: The extent of adoption, security, and overall effectiveness of the mandated transition to "Max" messenger for regional officials in RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Nicaragua Recognition Claim: Independent verification of Nicaragua's claimed recognition of illegally annexed Ukrainian territories as part of Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - to verify, currently MEDIUM on veracity)
• Kramatorsk Strike Details: Precise weapon type used in Kramatorsk strike, extent of damage beyond the residential building, and detailed casualty figures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Recruitment/Conscription Messages: The specific intent and impact of messages like "Urgent service is dangerous for life. Replace it with an alternative" on RF public and military personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF 7th Division's Appeal for Drones/Starlink: The scale of the reported shortages within the 7th Division of the Zaporozhian direction and whether this reflects widespread issues within RF VDV. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kamianske (Zaporizhzhia) Status: Definitive, independent verification of territorial control in Kamianske given conflicting reports from DeepState and Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• TikTok Data Leak Impact: The full impact of the reported TikTok data leak on Russian users and whether it poses a security risk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Vladimir Oblast Drone Incident: The type and origin of the drone found in Vladimir Oblast, and whether it was an intentional strike or malfunction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ilovaisk Road Accident Details: Full details of the road accident in Ilovaisk, including the involvement of military personnel, the cause, and whether it was combat-related. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Synevyr National Park Land Seizure: The full extent of environmental damage and legal implications of the illegal seizure of protected lands in Synevyr National Nature Park. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukrainian Engineering Capabilities: Specifics of the "Country of Engineers" initiative, including its funding, participants, and projected impact on Ukraine's military-industrial complex. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Balashikha Fire: Cause of the fire in Balashikha, Moscow Oblast, and whether it was accidental or a result of an attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sevastopol Photographer Sentencing: Full details and evidence of the charges and conviction against the Sevastopol photographer, and whether it is part of a wider crackdown. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Bryansk Oblast Civilian Injury: Full details of the civilian injury in Bryansk Oblast due to a UA drone attack, including severity and specific location. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• BRICS Stance: The full implications of Peskov's statement on BRICS' orientation for international relations and its impact on the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Tax Collection Law: The full economic and social impact of Putin's new tax collection law. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Suit Against Saponkov: Details regarding the lawsuit against military blogger Saponkov and its potential impact on the wider military blogger community in RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Impact of Crimean Bridge Queue: The cause and operational impact of the significant vehicle queue at the Crimean Bridge. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize Kyiv Air Defense & Civilian Protection (URGENT): Immediately redeploy all available short- and medium-range air defense systems to further strengthen Kyiv's air defense, particularly around critical infrastructure and densely populated civilian areas. Accelerate the provision of interceptors for Shahed, reactive drones, and ballistic/cruise missiles, especially those capable of engaging cluster munitions. Ensure rapid response and civilian protection protocols are activated, including immediate damage assessment and humanitarian assistance in impacted areas. Prioritize informing the civilian population of safe sheltering locations, such as metro stations, and enforce compliance during air raid alerts. Immediately dispatch additional emergency services and medical teams to reported residential impacts in Sviatoshynskyi and Solomianskyi districts for search and rescue operations, expecting high and rising casualties (now 135 injured, 11 fatalities), and focusing on the 10 reported missing persons. Establish emergency traffic reroutes around affected areas in Kyiv. Conduct rapid BDA on damaged railway infrastructure and implement immediate repair plans to minimize logistical disruption. Integrate DSNS aviation and other civilian emergency assets for rapid response to large-scale civilian impact events. Maintain maximum readiness for potential Kinzhal missile strikes on Kyiv following the confirmed MiG-31K launch. Initiate immediate ISR on the MiG-31K flight path and associated activities. Coordinate civilian support activities around Kyiv's declared day of mourning on August 1st. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2. Verify Chasiv Yar Status and Adjust Defenses (URGENT): Immediately conduct comprehensive ISR (IMINT, HUMINT, SIGINT) to verify RF claims of complete liberation of Chasiv Yar and specifically confirm the situation in the southern part of the city. Critically assess the latest RF claim of UA confirmation of "factual loss" of Chasiv Yar. If confirmed, rapidly establish new defensive lines west of the canal, reinforce all units in the area, and prepare for potential counter-offensives. Prioritize ISR on the Shipovnik-Aero EW system for neutralization and immediate tactical guidance to drone operators. Monitor for any signs of direct pressure on Kostiantynivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
3. Reinforce Eastern Fronts and Verify Pokrovsk Penetration: Prioritize immediate deployment of additional artillery, armored vehicles, and infantry reinforcements to the Pokrovsk axis, particularly to support the 55th Separate Artillery Brigade. Urgently conduct ISR to verify the extent and strength of RF penetration into Pokrovsk residential areas, investigate claims of foreign mercenary elimination, and specifically the reported deep DRG penetrations. Prepare for and repel anticipated major mechanized assaults towards Prohres, leveraging the success of the 47th Mechanized Brigade. Conduct rapid BDA on RF MoD claims of seizing fortified areas on the approaches to Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Monitor and counter RF advances in Kharkiv region, near Kupyansk, and Serebryanka, particularly in the 7 newly impacted settlements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
4. Counter-Disinformation Operations and Aggressive Rhetoric: Immediately launch a coordinated counter-propaganda campaign to disseminate GUR MO's legal evidence of Russian child abductions. Actively refute RF false flag narratives regarding civilian casualties and fabricated incidents. Counter RF narratives on internal issues and actively disseminate information about RF targeting of civilian infrastructure and logistics hubs (e.g., Pavlohrad, Kyiv railway). Expose RF's reliance on public cryptocurrency donations as a sign of their resource constraints. Directly counter RF military blogger PSYOPS and narratives about Ukrainian leadership, specifically addressing the recent aggressive and mocking rhetoric regarding air defense failures and explicit threats of future mass attacks, and their claims regarding Zhuliany Airport and damage to Kyiv Polytechnic. Develop and disseminate compelling narratives countering RF propaganda related to mobilization efforts, specifically addressing the recent aggressive rhetoric and the use of captured UA personnel (e.g., the 'Aidar' battalion video) to discredit Ukrainian forces and internal morale. Highlight RF's internal issues, suchs as airport restrictions and the persistent ISS air leak, to portray a less stable internal situation. Directly counter and expose RF military bloggers like "Два майора" and "Colonelcassad" who are celebrating civilian casualties and destruction in Kyiv, using their own content to demonstrate RF's intent to terrorize the civilian population. Refute unverified claims of US nuclear weapons delivery to the UK, highlighting them as RF disinformation. Develop and disseminate counter-narratives to ARCHENGEL SPETSNAZ's claims regarding Mexican cartel members in UA forces. Explicitly counter RF narratives concerning the Crocus attack, emphasizing the true nature of the perpetrators' motivations. Leverage STERNENKO's post on the damaged Kyiv mosque to highlight RF's indiscriminate targeting. Publicly condemn the genocidal rhetoric propagated by Russian media, citing the specific headline reported by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and use it to galvanize international support and moral outrage. Counter RF narratives regarding the exploitation of Russian teenagers, emphasizing the criminal nature of such activities and the false attribution to Ukraine. Actively highlight and expose RF propaganda efforts that celebrate harm to Ukrainian veterans or exploit internal political disputes to undermine unity and morale. Directly refute the unverified claim of Nicaragua's recognition of annexed territories, providing factual international legal positions. Publicly condemn the targeting of civilian areas like Kramatorsk and highlight the resulting destruction. Emphasize Ignat's counter-disinformation on reactive Shaheds. Exploit Russia's new restrictive laws (e.g., VPNs, "extremist" info) to highlight authoritarianism and undermine public trust in RF governance. Address and contextualize the "difficulty" of shooting down reactive Gerans to avoid demoralization. Continue to highlight Russian internal dissent, such as the lawsuit against Saponkov, to sow discord. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
5. Accelerate NABU/SAP Reform: The Rada has now passed the NABU and SAP bill, a significant step. Continue to actively counter RF propaganda designed to undermine confidence in these reforms, leveraging public support for transparency. Investigate and prosecute reported corruption schemes in procurement to ensure efficient use of resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
6. Personnel and Equipment Assessment: Conduct urgent assessment of 55th Separate Artillery Brigade's specific personnel and technical means shortages and implement a rapid resupply and training program. Leverage successful FPV drone tactics and prioritize provision of excavators for rapid entrenchment. Support fundraising efforts for units like the Rubezh NGU Brigade to address equipment losses. Investigate the reported loss of a second battalion commander in 5 days to determine if systemic issues are contributing to leadership attrition. Investigate and publicly highlight the internal RF issue of killed personnel (e.g., Fighterbomber's report of two "best" killed) to exploit their personnel losses and morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
7. ISR Focus on RF Drone Ops and EW: Intensify ISR collection on RF drone operations and their capabilities, especially the increased Lancet activity, FAB-1500, and reactive drone strikes. Prioritize SIGINT and IMINT tasking to locate and characterize the Shipovnik-Aero EW system. Develop and disseminate immediate tactical guidance for drone operators on potential countermeasures (e.g., alternative frequencies, revised flight paths). Prioritize targeting of this EW asset. Increase ISR on RF tactical aviation activity in northeastern directions for early warning and targeting. Conduct forensic analysis of any captured "Baba Yaga" drones or their components to understand RF counter-drone tactics. Prioritize BDA on the Penza Radio Plant strike to assess its impact on RF military computing production capabilities. Conduct rapid BDA on the Volgograd Oblast railway incident to understand its impact on RF logistics. Monitor RF's development and deployment of passive drone protection systems like "Oduvanchik" for potential widespread integration. Conduct technical analysis of "reactive Shaheds" for effective countermeasures. Intensify ISR on RF ground robotic complexes following the destruction of one by the NGU "Khartia" Brigade to understand their capabilities and deployment patterns. Immediately analyze reported new Ukrainian drone munitions for integration into current drone capabilities. Conduct detailed analysis of the "Batyr" UAV system used in Penza strike. Assess RF adaptive measures such as the modified "Frankenstein" truck against drone threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
8. Prepare for Mechanized Assaults (Avdiivka Axis): Prioritize immediate resupply of ATGM systems (Javelin, Stugna-P) and additional FPV drones to the 47th Mechanized Brigade and adjacent units. Anticipate another major mechanized assault towards Prohres within the next 24-48 hours. Continue BZVP training at the 47th Mechanized Brigade base. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
9. Northern Border Defensive Posture: Maintain heightened vigilance and readiness against reconnaissance and strike UAVs in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts. Increase border patrol effectiveness against draft evasion attempts. Prioritize interception of reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
10. Sustain Mine Clearance Operations: Continue and expand mine clearance efforts, particularly in regions like Kherson Oblast and Kharkiv Oblast, to improve maneuverability and reduce civilian risk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
11. Implement Underground Training: Rapidly implement Syrisky's directive to transfer military training underground. Review and update 51-day BZVP program for maximum effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
12. Integrate 25-Year-Old Conscripts: Expedite full integration of newly formalized 25-year-old conscript reserve pool into training and deployment, ensuring adequate training and support, including medical and pharmaceutical specialists. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
13. Address Donetsk Water Shortages: Ukrainian authorities must immediately assess full impact of water supply reductions and implement emergency water distribution plans, and investigate the cause of the reductions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
14. Expedite 16th Army Corps Readiness: Accelerate the formation, equipping, and training of the newly created 16th Army Corps to bolster Kharkiv's defenses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
15. Support Siversk Defenses: Provide immediate support to 10th OGShBr to maintain their defensive successes against RF assaults, including materiel and personnel, and analyze RF's continued use of motorcycles in assaults. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
16. Zhytomyr Oblast Air Defense: Rapid deployment of additional air defense assets and personnel to Zhytomyr Oblast within the next 12-24 hours, given the new trajectory of Shahed UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
17. Monitor Pavlohrad: Prioritize ISR collection and analysis on Pavlohrad to determine the nature of RF interest or potential plans for this key logistical and industrial hub, especially after the confirmed strikes on agricultural and transport enterprises. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
18. Address Zaporizhzhia Casualties: Provide immediate support to local authorities in Zaporizhzhia region to address the two reported casualties and assess the extent of damage from the recent Russian attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
19. Counter FSB Agent Network: Continue and intensify SBU efforts to uncover and neutralize FSB agent networks, particularly those targeting energy infrastructure in key oblasts like Kharkiv, and those involved in aiding enemy targeting of strategic enterprises. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
20. Promote Ingenuity in Rescue and Combat: Analyze and disseminate best practices from successful drone-aided rescue operations and innovative combat tactics (e.g., drone-delivered electric bikes for evacuation, FPV drone strikes on infantrymen with AT mines) to all relevant units for rapid adoption and force multiplication. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
21. Support Kharkiv Civilian Services: Provide immediate assistance to the Coordination Staff on POWs and MIAs in Kharkiv Oblast to support their work with affected families, ensuring that essential resources are available. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
22. Leverage New Drone Munitions: Expedite assessment and integration of any newly acquired drone munitions, such as those reportedly from Denmark, to enhance offensive capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
23. Address Military Salary Arrears: Ukrainian government has now secured the necessary budget amendments to ensure military personnel salaries are paid on time. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
24. Monitor Internal RF Dissent & Control: Continue to monitor and analyze the impact of internal Russian security measures and propaganda efforts against perceived "traitors" and pro-Ukrainian elements, particularly among youth. Exploit any verifiable signs of public dissatisfaction or declining morale within Russia, especially regarding military service and veteran support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
25. Investigate Zaporizhzhia Prison Bombing: Conduct an immediate, thorough, and transparent investigation into the bombing of the prison in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, documenting all evidence of RF intent and responsibility for targeting a civilian facility, to support international accountability efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
26. Address RF Veteran Support Deficiencies: Publicly highlight and condemn the poor treatment of Russian veterans and mobilized personnel, such as the mobilized invalid given a ruined apartment, to expose internal RF systemic failures and undermine morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
27. Investigate Rostov Border Closures: Conduct immediate ISR to determine the specific reasons for the border crossing closures in Rostov Oblast, whether due to security incidents, logistical challenges, or internal control measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
28. Monitor RF Drone Delivery Networks: Intensify ISR on RF methods of FPV drone delivery, particularly within occupied territories, following the liquidation of Daria Trofimova, to uncover and disrupt such networks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
29. Monitor RF Strategic Intent (August): Given the explicit statement from Alex Parker Returns that "August will be a turning point," allocate additional ISR assets to monitor for any significant changes in RF force posture, logistics build-up, or strategic communication that would indicate a major offensive or shift in military operations. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
30. Assess New RF Anti-Tank System: Initiate immediate intelligence collection and technical analysis on the reported new RF "Motiv" anti-tank weapon to understand its capabilities, deployment, and potential countermeasures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
31. Monitor RF Internal Communications: Continuously monitor developments regarding RF regional officials' transition to the "Max" messenger to assess its impact on RF internal communication security and potential vulnerabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
32. Kramatorsk Response: Provide immediate humanitarian assistance and support to local authorities in Kramatorsk for damage assessment and recovery efforts following the strike on the city center. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
33. Exploit RF Resource Constraints: Leverage intelligence on RF 7th Division's appeal for drones and Starlink to understand and potentially exploit specific materiel shortages within RF VDV units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
34. Verify Kamianske Status: Prioritize immediate and independent ISR to confirm the true status of Kamianske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) given the conflicting reports from DeepState and the Southern Defense Forces. If the DeepState report is confirmed, new defensive measures must be immediately assessed and implemented. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
35. Bolster Ukrainian Engineering and Production Capabilities: Fully support and expedite the "Country of Engineers" national initiative by the Technological Forces of Ukraine and Ministry of Strategic Industries. This includes ensuring adequate funding, resources, and policy support to boost the production of military equipment, especially drones and other advanced systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
36. Mitigate Agricultural Losses in Zaporizhzhia: Provide immediate assistance to Zaporizhzhia Oblast to address the destruction of nearly 700 hectares of grain by fires due to shelling. Implement measures to protect remaining agricultural land and ensure food security for the region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
37. Protect Synevyr National Park: Initiate immediate legal action and protective measures to reverse the illegal seizure of 36.5 hectares of protected lands in Synevyr National Nature Park. Coordinate with environmental agencies to assess and mitigate any ecological damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
38. Address Russian Internal Security Crackdown: Publicly highlight and condemn RF's increasing internal repression, including severe sentences for perceived "saboteurs" and those collecting military data, particularly the 22-year sentence for the Sevastopol photographer. Use these cases to emphasize the oppressive nature of the RF regime and galvanize international human rights support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
39. Address Bryansk Civilian Injury: Provide immediate assistance to the civilian injured in Bryansk Oblast due to a UA drone attack and conduct BDA to confirm impact and intent, if any. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
40. Monitor BRICS Diplomatic Stance: Continue to monitor BRICS statements and actions for any shifts that could impact international relations relevant to the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
41. Assess RF Internal Tax Law Impact: Monitor the implementation and social impact of Putin's new tax collection law for any signs of internal instability or public discontent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
42. Respond to Mail Summoning: Prepare public guidance and support mechanisms for citizens affected by the potential change to combat summons delivery via mail. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
43. Monitor Crimean Bridge Activity: Continue to monitor traffic and security at the Crimean Bridge, assessing the cause of delays and any potential implications for RF logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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END OF SITREP