Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 310737Z JUL 25

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide missile and UAV threat from RF persists. President Zelensky reports over 300 drones and 8 missiles launched by Russia overnight. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 291 enemy targets shot down/suppressed. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 288/309 strike UAVs shot down/suppressed and 3/8 Iskander-K missiles shot down. The discrepancy in total numbers (Zelensky vs. Air Force/Operatyvnyi ZSU) suggests some targets may have been suppressed rather than physically shot down, or different counting methodologies. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 317 aerial attack assets were engaged overnight and in the morning. ASTRA reports 5 direct missile hits and 21 drone hits overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kyiv Oblast: RF has conducted a ballistic missile strike on Kyiv, following a very high-volume Shahed UAV attack and previous ballistic/cruise missile strikes. KMA reports impacts on residential buildings in Sviatoshynskyi and Solomianskyi districts. Latest reporting indicates 6 confirmed fatalities (4 in Sviatoshynskyi, 2 in Solomianskyi), including a 6-year-old child and his mother, and 52 injured, including 9 children. Emergency services are conducting search and rescue. National Police confirm traffic is blocked on several streets. Klitschko reports police personnel among the injured, and that this attack saw the highest number of injured children since the start of the war in Kyiv. RF sources overtly celebrate attacks on "enemy capital" and mock Ukrainian air defenses, claiming Zhuliany Airport (Patriot SAM position and UAV assembly workshops) and industrial enterprises were targeted. Ukraine's Minister of Internal Affairs, Ihor Klimenko, is on-site at a destroyed building, providing updates on rescue operations, confirming individuals trapped. Approximately 10 individuals are reported missing from the destroyed building in Kyiv. Additionally, railway infrastructure in one of Kyiv's districts was damaged by the overnight attacks, leading to temporary use of diesel locomotives on the affected section; however, no casualties among passengers or railway workers were reported. New video footage shows moment of Shahed impact on residential building, and drone footage shows destroyed apartment block in Sviatoshynskyi. Minister Klimenko confirms Kyiv was likely attacked by "reactive Shaheds." Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms Kyiv was attacked by reactive Shaheds, citing Minister Klimenko. РБК-Україна confirms the number of injured in Kyiv has risen to 82, with the youngest victim being 5 months old. РБК-Україна reports a man trapped under rubble was rescued. KMA expresses fear over rising casualties and child victims, highlighting rescue efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: КАBs inbound. RF conducted missile strike on a suburb of Kharkiv (Vasyshcheve), resulting in fires and 8 casualties, including rescue workers. RF sources claim powerful strike on UA Armed Forces warehouse in Kharkiv Oblast and advance towards the Kharkiv-Kupyansk road. Oleg Synyehubov confirms significant damage to civilian structures. 7 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were impacted by enemy strikes in the last 24 hours. Oleg Synyehubov shares video confirming ongoing rescue efforts at a damaged building, utilizing specialized equipment like a LUF CRV robot. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Krasne Pershe and Kamyanka in South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering an agent collecting data on Ukrainian military and critical infrastructure in Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk (Pokrovsk Axis): RF forces are the most actively advancing, with battles begun in Dimitrov (Myrnohrad) and improved RF positions in Rodinskoye. RF sources claim significant advancement towards Volodymyrivka, effectively "pinching" Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk. RF sources now claim assault units have entered the residential areas of Pokrovsk, establishing positions near the market, asserting approximately 5km of advance into the city center. Drone footage of Pokrovsk shows visible destruction. RF sources are using FPV drones of the "CENTRE" grouping against UA personnel in the battles for Dimitrov. RF MoD claims assault troops have seized fortified areas of the AFU on the approaches to Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). TASS claims RF forces advanced 1.5 km into AFU defenses near Zelenaya Dolina and advanced near Karpovka in DNR. "Операция Z" claims elimination of foreign mercenaries, including a US combatant, near Pokrovsk. TASS claims "South" group destroyed Western-produced equipment near Konstantinovka. Water supply to four cities in Donetsk Oblast will be reduced. Drone footage from "Birds of Madyar" (414th UAV Brigade) shows an RF soldier being hit by artillery/mortar fire on the Pokrovsk axis. New КАBs inbound reported. Kotsnews shares video footage of assault operations under Pokrovsk, showing effective fire on a wooded area suspected of containing UA positions. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Popiv Yar, Fedorivka, Novoekonomichne, Promin, Lysivka, Zvirivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Horikhove, towards Boykivka, Novopavlivka, Pokrovsk, Rodynske, Chervonyy Lyman, Novoukrayinka, Dachne. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar Direction: RF MoD, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Операция Z, and Kotsnews all claim the complete liberation of Chasiv Yar by Russian forces after months of fighting. TASS reports RF forces destroyed the largest grouping of AFU in Chasiv Yar in the history of the SVO. First confirmed operational deployment of the Shipovnik-Aero mobile EW complex. 50% increase in Lancet strikes targeting UA artillery and logistics. UA drone successfully targeted RF SA-13 'Gopher' SAM system, a fortified position/dugout, and a 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer. RF footage from Mash na Donbasse and Colonelcassad shows Russian flags raised on buildings in Chasiv Yar (Ognuporny Plant, Levanevsky, Shevchenko, and Pivdennyi microdistricts) and claims the city is under RF control. TASS reports that after the loss of Chasiv Yar, Ukrainian defenses on the Kostiantynivka direction have effectively collapsed (Kymakovsky). DeepState map contradicts RF claims, showing the southern part of the city is not under Russian control. TASS claims RF forces evacuated a large part of Chasiv Yar's population. Воин DV publishes a video titled "Chasiv Yar has fallen!" showing drone footage of destruction. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition repeats the claim of Chasiv Yar's liberation, stating it was one of the longest and hardest battles, with the city now offering direct line of sight to Konstantinovka and Druzhkovka. Alex Parker Returns also claims Chasiv Yar liberated after almost two years of bloody battles, with Russian flags raised and VDV units making the main contribution. Басурин о главном shares video of damaged buildings and Russian flags, implying control of a disputed area. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Chasiv Yar, Minkivka, Novomarkove and towards Bondarne, Predtechyne. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Siversk Direction: 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade (10th OGShBr) successfully repelled an enemy assault, destroying 13 motorcycles. TASS reports RF forces destroyed a Ukrainian defensive line near Serebryanka in DNR and are flanking entrenched enemy units. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Serebryanka, Vyyimka, Zvanivka and Fedorivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy Oblast: Russians continue to assault with small infantry groups. Enemy UAVs detected in Chernihiv Oblast moving towards Sumy Oblast. KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. Russia struck Sumy Oblast administration building for the third time in three days. New RF reconnaissance UAV detected in Sumy area, possible PPO activity. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on Ussuri paratroopers operating from the Sumy direction, indicating continued RF presence/activity. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАBs inbound to Sumy Oblast. Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces repelled 32 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RF KABs confirmed inbound. RF is conducting an active campaign to recruit local residents for service in occupation forces. RF sources claim UA shelling of a children's playground in Vasilyevka, injuring two children, later updated to three. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports continued RF attacks on civilian infrastructure in Orikhiv, Hulyaypole, and Kamianske. RF 7th Airborne Division appealing for drone and Starlink donations due to enemy EW. New reporting from Operatyvnyi ZSU and ASTRA confirms 2 casualties in Zaporizhzhia region from a Russian attack: a 17-year-old boy and a 64-year-old woman injured in Zaporizhzhia district. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Bilohirya of Zaporizhzhia region. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Plavni in Orikhiv direction, and near Malynivka in Huliaipole direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): Enemy attacked Nikopolshchyna with FPV drones and artillery. Воин DV claims 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade destroyed a UA armored vehicle and truck in Dibrova and Novoselovka. New group of strike UAVs detected heading northwest. Explosions reported in Samara, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian PPO reports destroying 15 enemy drones in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Serhiy Lysak, Head of Dnipropetrovsk OVA, confirms region was hit by rocket/drone strikes overnight, including agricultural and transport enterprises in Pavlohrad district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson Oblast: Ukrainian engineering troops have cleared nearly 3,000 hectares of mines. RF forces dropping flags onto a railway bridge near Kherson from a drone, likely a psychological operation. Два майора share a video titled "Kherson direction," showing drone footage of a destroyed building and a wireframe structure "Oduvanchik" (Dandelion) designed for passive protection of armored vehicles from drones. Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces repelled 5 Russian army assaults in Kherson direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Threat of enemy strike UAVs from the south. Shahed UAVs reported heading north-northeast. UA reports a household building caught fire in Kremenchuk district due to falling enemy UAV debris. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Western Ukraine: Air raid alert due to strike UAVs gradually spreading to Western Ukraine. Shaheds are now reported to be moving towards / through Zhytomyr Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kryvyi Rih: Situation reported as controlled. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pavlohrad Interest: Colonelcassad reports a large-scale fire at Pavlohrad railway junction (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) after a combined missile and drone strike overnight, labeling it "one of the largest logistics hubs" for Ukrainian formations. This confirms previous indications of RF interest in Pavlohrad. Shahed Hayabusa confirms agricultural and transport enterprises in Pavlohrad district were hit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia:
  • Belgorod Oblast: Residents of Krasnoyaruzhsky district will be evicted from temporary accommodation points starting August 1st, despite ongoing shelling. Ministry of Defense reports 13 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Rostov and Belgorod Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Bryansk Oblast: Video shows an explosion on a body of water, possibly a mine or artillery impact, claimed to be in Bryansk Oblast. Drone security reported. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov Oblast: Ministry of Defense reports 13 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Rostov and Belgorod Oblasts. 5 UAVs destroyed in Rostov Oblast, causing a forest fire from falling debris. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volgograd Oblast: Restrictions on aircraft reception and departure were imposed at Volgograd Airport by Rosaviatsia, then lifted. A massive UAV attack was repelled, disrupting gas supply to 65 private homes and train movement on Kotelnikovo-Kanalnaya section due to UAV debris fall on railway infrastructure. A large fire reported in Kotelnikovo after UAV attack. TASS reports train movement in Volgograd Oblast, delayed due to UAV debris on railway tracks, has been resumed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Saratov Airport: Temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure imposed. TASS confirms restrictions at Saratov airport were lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Penza Oblast: Drone attacks reported on a factory, identified by Ukrainian sources as Penza Radio Plant (part of Rostec). RF sources distribute video of a large explosion and fire, describing it as an attack on an enterprise. Information from STERNENKO and ASTRA confirms the target was Penza Radio Plant ("EVT named after V.A. Revunov"), which produces computing equipment for the RF Ministry of Defense. Video evidence from ASTRA shows smoke rising, and local residents claiming drones were flying directly at the VEM plant. TASS reports public transport movement suspended in Penza during "Air Danger" regime, now cancelled, with public transport resuming. ASTRA analysis confirms the fire in Penza was in the area of two local factories after a UAV attack. Военкор Котенок confirms a drone attack on an industrial facility in Penza, resulting in a fire, citing Governor Oleg Melnichenko. Север.Реалии also reports a fire at an industrial enterprise in Penza after drone attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kamchatka Region: Nine earthquakes (M4.2-M5.5) occurred within an hour, indicating ongoing seismic activity. Minimal ecological consequences reported, but aftershocks expected for months. Ash emission from Klyuchevskoy volcano. TASS reports 8 earthquakes near Kamchatka coast within an hour. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security: FSB detained teenagers allegedly involved in railway arsons. Ministry of Education and Science official detained for embezzlement. Russian Federal Air Transport Agency annulled the certificate of Irkutsk airline "Angara" for aircraft maintenance. One of the leaders of the banned RDK, Kiryushchenko, заочно arrested on terrorism charges. Mobilized serviceman convicted for attempting to retrieve drugs. RF war participant stole a family heirloom for alcohol. Former Sochi mayor accused of embezzlement. A minor planned to set fire to relay cabinets in Krasnoyarsk for money. Police in Khabarovsk Krai reported on a law enforcement operation, likely internal security. New RF legislation coming into effect in August includes measures for expelling foreigners involved in pre-election campaigning. TASS reports Moscow City Court sentenced a married couple to 15 and 17 years in prison for collecting data on military personnel, as reported by the FSB. Sever.Realii comments on this, stating "Now the entire community of Russians (residents of Russia) can be safely declared extremist." TASS shares video footage of the sentencing of a couple accused of collecting data for Ukrainian military intelligence. Alex Parker Returns comments on the Crocus attack, stating experts concluded the perpetrators were manipulated for money, not ideological reasons. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Occupied Luhansk: Video depicting a street scene shows significant litter and neglect. Large queue of civilians outside Luhansk Republican Clinical Hospital. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vostochny Cosmodrome: TASS reports anti-terrorist exercises were held at Vostochny Cosmodrome. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • California, USA: Colonelcassad reports an F-35 fighter jet crashed in California near Lemoore Naval Air Station, identified as Fresno County, with significant fire and smoke. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports an F-35 crash near Lemoore Air Base. TASS confirms the F-35 crash in California, pilot ejected. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • United Kingdom: Poddugny reports that a second batch of nuclear weapons was delivered to the UK from the US on July 29, citing Nukewatch UK. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - RF propaganda outlet, unverified claim)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Kharkiv Oblast: Continued RF strikes cause fires and damage. Synyehubov warns of impending severe weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Donetsk/Luhansk (Occupied): Ongoing fires in fields, likely due to shelling. Video from Luhansk shows significant debris and neglect. Water supply issues in four Donetsk cities. Mash na Donbasse video shows dispute over water supply issues in Donetsk, indicating ongoing utility concerns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• General Conditions: Continued operations in adverse weather conditions (rain affecting visibility). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kamchatka (RF Far East): Nine earthquakes (M4.2-M5.5) could impact infrastructure and resource allocation. Aftershocks expected for months. Ash emission from Klyuchevskoy volcano. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kherson Direction: "Два майора" mentions "strong wind" during drone footage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kotelnikovo (RF): Large fire observed after UAV attack, impacting railway and gas supply. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Rostov Oblast (RF): Falling debris from destroyed UAVs caused a forest fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Penza (RF): Plume of dark smoke rising from a drone strike on Penza Radio Plant. Large explosion and fire confirmed. Public transport suspended due to "Air Danger" regime. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kremenchuk Raion: UA reports a household building caught fire due to falling enemy UAV debris. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kyiv Oblast: Night photos show aftermath of attack in residential/semi-rural area. Large plume of smoke and flames rising from Kyiv. Damage to railway infrastructure reported. Zelenskiy confirms damage to residential infrastructure, including a destroyed apartment entrance. Klitschko video shows significant destruction to residential building, with debris and damaged vehicles. Klimenko confirms direct impact on 5th floor of building in Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Pavlohrad: Large-scale fire at railway junction after combined missile/drone strike indicates significant environmental impact and disruption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF Force Dispositions:
  • Air Assets: RF continues KAB launches on Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Sumy Oblasts. New groups of strike UAVs (Shaheds) identified in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts moving south, and a group in Chernihiv Oblast moving north towards Kyiv. Strike UAVs also detected spreading towards Western Ukraine and in Kirovohrad Oblast. A new group of Shaheds detected in Dnipropetrovsk heading northwest. RF is actively using FPV drones in Dnipropetrovsk (Nikopolshchyna) and Chasiv Yar directions. RF FAB-1500 strike reported in Kupyansk. A very high volume of Shaheds recently converged on/over Kyiv from multiple directions, followed by ballistic and cruise missile threats. First rockets entered Kyiv via Brovary, with explosions confirmed from cruise missiles, followed by a confirmed ballistic missile strike. TASS reports 13 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Rostov and Belgorod Oblasts, and 5 over Rostov alone. TASS and Colonelcassad report 32 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions and annexed Crimea overnight. UA reports 15 enemy drones destroyed by PPO in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 explicitly claims Zhuliany Airport (Kyiv) was under a massive RF attack. Poddubny claims impacts near Zhuliany Airport (Patriot SAM position and UAV assembly workshops) and industrial enterprises working for AFU in Kyiv. RF sources confirm a combined missile-drone strike on Pavlohrad railway junction. RF MoD claims 44 UAV control points and 28 drones destroyed by "Zapad" Grouping. Zelenskiy reports over 300 drones and 8 missiles launched by RF overnight. WarGonzo claims mass use of "reactive Gerans" in Kyiv attack. Minister Klimenko indicates "reactive Shaheds" were likely used in Kyiv attack. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 288/309 strike UAVs and 3/8 Iskander-K missiles shot down/suppressed. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 317 aerial attack assets were engaged overnight and in the morning. ASTRA reports 5 direct missile hits and 21 drone hits overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Forces: Persistent offensive pressure on the Pokrovsk axis, with claimed advancements into residential areas of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk). RF small infantry group assaults in Sumy Oblast. RF Special Forces "AKHMAT" Group "Bati" operating in Kharkiv direction, with 44th Army Corps assault detachments conducting demining. RF VDV units appealing for drone and Starlink support due to UA EW. 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade reportedly destroyed a UA armored vehicle and truck in Dibrova and Novoselovka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). "Операция Z" claims Russian forces eliminated a group of foreign mercenaries, including a US combatant, near Pokrovsk. TASS claims "South" group destroyed Western-produced equipment near Konstantinovka. TASS reports RF forces advancing on Kharkiv sector, striking UA in five settlements, and taking control of 1km of highway near Kupyansk. TASS claims RF forces advanced 1.5 km into AFU defenses near Zelenaya Dolina and advanced near Karpovka in DNR. RF MoD claims to have liberated Chasiv Yar, with TASS reporting destruction of the largest AFU grouping there. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition explicitly states the liberation of Chasiv Yar. Alex Parker Returns also claims Chasiv Yar liberation by paratroopers. TASS reports that 18 foreign mercenaries fighting for Ukraine have been identified in the last two weeks, and charges have been filed against them in absentia. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Kindrashivka, Zahryzove and towards Kupyansk. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Karpivka, Novyy Myr, Ridkodub, Yampolivka, Dibriv and towards Dronivka, Shandryholove, Olhivka, Yampil in Lyman direction. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Toretsk, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Scherbynivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove, towards Stepanivka, Bila Hora and Pleschiyivka. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Zaporizhzhya, Komar, Perebudova, Piddubne, Maliyivka, Fedorivka, Shevchenko, Novopil in Novopavlivka direction. MoD Russia shares video of Giatsint-S howitzer crews of the Zapad Group's 25th Combined Arms Army wiping out concealed strongholds, UAV command posts, and manpower of the AFU units in the Lugansk People's Republic. Z комитет + карта СВО shows a tactical map of the Yuzhno-Donetskoye direction. Сливочный каприз shares a map of the Krasnyy Liman - Torskoye area as of July 31. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Control Measures: RF Ministry of Justice added Alexei Navalny's book to extremist materials list. TASS reports on Roscosmos reporting continued air leak in ISS module and new agreements for joint ISS deorbiting until 2030. TASS claims Crocus attackers were paid, not religious fanatics. Police in Khabarovsk Krai initiated criminal proceedings for justifying terrorism. TASS reports Russia is becoming a world leader in fintech. TASS reports the car ramming incident after the Crocus attack was part of the terrorist attack. TASS reports former State Duma deputy Alexander Barannikov was fined for promoting LGBT content. TASS reports the share of imports from "unfriendly countries" has decreased threefold. TASS reports Tina Kandelaki has been declared wanted by the SBU in Ukraine. TASS reports Nicaragua's Co-Presidents sent a message of solidarity to Putin. TASS reports former Sochi mayor Kopaygorodsky accused of large-scale embezzlement. TASS reports a minor planned to set fire to relay cabinets in Krasnoyarsk for money. TASS reports over 250 participants in the AFU's invasion of Kursk Oblast has been convicted in the RF. TASS reports "Eksmo" publishing house will continue to publish Dina Rubina's books despite her statements on Gaza population. TASS reports Nikita Mikhalkov believes Russia should not submit its film for "Oscar" nomination. TASS reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been imposed at Saratov airport. TASS reports that Russia and the US are not yet negotiating nuclear disarmament. TASS reports that Vershinin stated US non-participation in the Palestine conference did not affect its productivity. TASS reports "Angara" airline has cancelled part of its flights. TASS reports Russia and Syria continue contacts on bases for security and humanitarian aid. TASS reports that Canada will recognize Palestine in September at the UN General Assembly. TASS reports that it is premature to talk about high-level meetings between Russia and Ukraine. TASS reports Trump stating he doesn't care about trade ties between New Delhi and Moscow. TASS reports anti-terrorist exercises were held at Vostochny Cosmodrome. TASS reports on new August laws, including the potential expulsion of foreigners for pre-election campaigning. TASS reports State Duma Deputy proposes banning unvaccinated migrants from taxi work. FSB reports 15 and 17 year sentences for couple collecting military data, highlighting internal repression. News from Moscow channel reports on new laws for August 2025. TASS denies reports of electronic driver's licenses from August 1. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Friendly Forces (UA):
  • Government & Internal Security: Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal states that 90% of mobilization is proceeding normally. Rada is set to vote on a crucial bill regarding NABU and SAP tomorrow. President Zelensky discusses GUR operations and successful cooperation with US partners on defense contracts and drone technology. General Staff of UA Armed Forces emphasizes quality of training as priority. Syrisky demands maximum transfer of UA Armed Forces training underground. Syrisky announces updated Basic General Military Training (BZVP) program is now 51 days long. 25-year-old conscripts will be granted "soldier or sailor in reserve" status without TCC & SP call-up. KMA highlights World Central Kitchen's support for Kyiv. Kyiv municipal workers are continuing operations amidst the current attack. Ihor Klimenko, Minister of Internal Affairs, is on-site at a destroyed building in Kyiv, providing updates on search and rescue. Minister Klimenko's presence at the Kyiv strike site, highlighting the search for approximately 10 missing persons. Zelenskiy and KMA confirm 6 fatalities, including a child, and dozens injured from overnight Kyiv attack. General Staff of the AFU held a working meeting focusing on increasing unit capabilities. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering an agent collecting data on Ukrainian military and critical infrastructure in Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Military Action: Ukrainian "Predator" Brigade recruitment advertisements. Film "Road of Death" made about a Ukrainian GUR MO special forces operation. Successful FPV drone strikes by the 66th Separate Mechanized Brigade. Ukrainian engineering troops cleared nearly 3,000 hectares of mines in Kherson Oblast. Successful shootdown of 5 RF reconnaissance UAVs. UA drone successfully targeted RF SA-13 'Gopher' SAM system, a fortified position/dugout, and a 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer. "BULAVA" unit of Separate Presidential Brigade used a drone with a grenade launcher for the first time. STERNENKO reports young benefactor raised 10,000 UAH for "Shahedorez." A new 16th Army Corps is being created to defend Kharkiv Oblast. 10th OGShBr successfully repelled an RF assault on the Siversk direction, destroying 13 motorcycles. Ukrainian forces are actively seeking support for excavators. PPO was active over Kyiv, responding to current Shahed attacks and missile threats. UA reports 15 enemy drones destroyed by PPO in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. General Staff of the AFU reports approx. 1070 RF personnel losses in the last 24 hours. Silo oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny issued an operational update for 08:00 (05:00Z). 47th Mechanized Brigade is conducting BZVP at its base. Ukrainian units are continuing to hold the main defensive line along the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal in Chasiv Yar, despite RF claims. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeastern direction. STERNENKO confirms 174 targets intercepted by "Shahedorez" project. 12th Azov Brigade videos show effective elimination of occupiers. UA Air Force/Operatyvnyi ZSU reports high number of intercepts (291/317 targets). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 317 aerial attack assets were engaged overnight and in the morning. ASTRA reports 5 direct missile hits and 21 drone hits overnight. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video footage of a successful FPV drone strike on a Russian infantryman. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Border Control: Ukrainian border guards in Odesa detained an individual attempting to flee Ukraine disguised as a woman. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Civilian Support: Protests regarding NABU/SAP independence were held in Kyiv. Large numbers of civilians in Kyiv sheltered in metro stations due to drone attacks. Emergency services actively engaged in rescue and recovery in Kyiv. Klitschko reports police among the injured. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration continues to observe daily minute of silence to honor fallen soldiers. Rubezh NGU Brigade is fundraising to restore destroyed property and equipment. STERNENKO urges "Convert your rage into help for the army!", indicating continued public appeals for support. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is promoting a creative contest "What Ukraine means to me?" - likely a morale-boosting initiative. KMA reports on counting explosions, dead, and injured civilians, and expresses fear for children. РБК-Україна reports a rescued man in Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Air/Missile/UAV: Capable of large-scale KAB launches (including FAB-1500) and persistent, multi-vector drone operations (Shaheds, reactive drones, FPV drones with thermobaric warheads) reaching Northern Kyiv and Western Ukraine. Demonstrated capability for coordinated, multi-layered aerial assaults on Kyiv, immediately following high-volume drone attacks with ballistic and cruise missile launches. Confirmed use of ballistic missiles on Kyiv, with claims of cluster warheads. Capable of striking industrial and logistics hubs such as Pavlohrad and military-industrial targets within Russia (e.g., Penza Radio Plant). Capable of employing mobile EW complexes (Shipovnik-Aero) to disrupt UAV C2. Capable of shooting down Ukrainian UAVs over Russian territory, claiming 32 drones shot down overnight. Zelenskiy confirms RF capability to launch over 300 drones and 8 missiles in a single night. WarGonzo confirms mass use of "reactive Gerans" on Kyiv targets, supported by Klimenko's statement on "reactive Shaheds." Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms RF use of reactive Shaheds. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 317 aerial attack assets were engaged overnight and in the morning, indicating significant RF capability. ASTRA reports 5 direct missile hits and 21 drone hits overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Forces: Capable of sustained offensive operations, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis, utilizing small infantry groups, special forces, and now company-sized mechanized assaults. Demonstrated capability for urban penetration by small assault groups. Capable of clearing fortified positions and securing logistics routes. Claimed liberation of Chasiv Yar and destruction of largest AFU grouping indicates capability for significant territorial gains and attrition of Ukrainian forces. Kotsnews footage confirms assault work under Pokrovsk, demonstrating continued ground offensive capability. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition highlights the difficulty and duration of fighting in Chasiv Yar, reinforcing RF claims of a tough but successful operation. MoD Russia shares video of howitzer crews engaging AFU strongholds and command posts in Luhansk, demonstrating continued artillery support for ground operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Electronic Warfare (EW): Demonstrated advanced EW capabilities with the first operational deployment of the Shipovnik-Aero mobile EW complex near Chasiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Operations: Highly capable of generating and disseminating false flag narratives, exploiting internal Ukrainian issues, discrediting Ukraine and its leadership, and promoting narratives of their own advances. Increased aggressive rhetoric, openly mocking Ukrainian air defenses and celebrating hits on residential buildings. Utilizing military bloggers for real-time information warfare, fundraising, and morale boosting. New claims regarding foreign nuclear weapons in the UK are likely intended to escalate tensions and justify RF actions. RF sources will likely link Kyiv attacks to perceived Western provocations, as suggested by Operatyvnyi ZSU's message attributing it to Trump's deadline. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming RT's audience in the US is larger than CNN's, an IO effort to discredit Western media. ТАСС shares video of a couple convicted for collecting military data for Ukraine, aiming to show Ukraine as a threat to Russian internal security. Alex Parker Returns discusses the Crocus attack, framing the perpetrators as manipulated for money, likely an attempt to deflect from extremist motivations and potentially link to external forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Intentions:
  • Strategic Attrition: Continue to degrade Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure through persistent, high-intensity, layered aerial strikes (KABs, Shaheds, ballistic/cruise missiles), with a clear intent to terrorize the population and overwhelm air defenses. This is confirmed by the ongoing Kyiv strikes, the targeting of residential buildings, and the celebration of these attacks by RF sources. Intent to target logistics hubs like Pavlohrad and key military-industrial targets (e.g., Penza Radio Plant in Russia). Inflict heavy casualties on UA personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Territorial Expansion: Maintain and intensify ground pressure on the Pokrovsk axis, aiming for a decisive breakthrough and consolidation of urban centers (e.g., Pokrovsk). Continue probing actions in Sumy Oblast and utilizing special forces in Kharkiv. Exploit claimed breakthroughs like Chasiv Yar for further offensive operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare/Propaganda: Continuously blame UA for civilian casualties and disseminate propaganda discrediting Ukraine and its armed forces. Promote narratives of their own advances and Ukrainian losses (e.g., claimed liberation of Chasiv Yar and destruction of AFU grouping). Intensify psychological operations against Ukrainian population. Control internal narratives regarding significant events and enforce social conservatism. New claims regarding foreign nuclear weapons in the UK are likely intended to escalate tensions and justify RF actions. RF sources will likely link Kyiv attacks to perceived Western provocations. Рыбарь shares a video about "Sandu deciding for everyone," likely an information operation targeting Moldova and its ties to the EU. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Courses of Action: RF will continue massed aerial attacks, primarily with KABs (including FAB-1500) and Shahed UAVs, now extending to Northern Kyiv Oblast, Western Ukraine, and key logistics hubs like Pavlohrad, immediately followed by ballistic and cruise missile launches. Ground offensives will persist on the Pokrovsk axis with further mechanized assaults and urban penetration attempts. RF will continue to utilize drones for reconnaissance and targeting, increasing Lancet strikes, leveraging new EW systems. RF will intensify information warfare campaigns, with increasingly aggressive rhetoric, and continue to control and exploit internal dissent. RF will continue to emphasize military-industrial targets in Ukraine and potentially launch further attacks on its own territory for false-flag purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Intensified Layered Air/Missile Strikes on Kyiv & Expanded Range: The immediate follow-up of a very high-volume Shahed attack with ballistic and cruise missile threats and a confirmed ballistic strike on Kyiv (causing 6 fatalities, 52 injured, including children, and widespread residential damage) demonstrates a highly coordinated, multi-layered aerial assault strategy aimed at overwhelming air defenses and maximizing terror/damage. Expanded Shahed range to Northern Kyiv and Western Ukraine. First reported FAB-1500 strike on Kupyansk. Confirmed strike on Pavlohrad railway junction. Damage to railway infrastructure in Kyiv indicates expanding target sets. Zelenskiy confirms over 300 drones and 8 missiles launched overnight against Ukraine. Video confirms Shahed impact on Kyiv residential building. Klimenko suggests use of "reactive Shaheds" in Kyiv. ASTRA confirms 5 direct missile hits and 21 drone hits overnight. РБК-Україна reports the injured toll in Kyiv has risen to 82. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Aggressive Ground Maneuvers (Pokrovsk & Chasiv Yar): Ongoing "intensely escalating" situation on the Pokrovsk axis, with claimed advancements into residential areas of Pokrovsk and resumed company-sized mechanized assaults. RF "CENTRE" grouping employing FPV drones in the battles for Dimitrov. RF MoD claims complete liberation of Chasiv Yar and destruction of largest AFU grouping there, reinforced by video evidence of flag raising. TASS claims collapse of UA defenses on Kostiantynivka direction. Kotsnews shares footage of assault work under Pokrovsk, indicating continued ground pressure. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Alex Parker Returns both assert the liberation of Chasiv Yar, with Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition emphasizing the long and hard nature of the battle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Electronic Warfare Deployment (Chasiv Yar): First confirmed operational deployment of the Shipovnik-Aero mobile EW complex near Chasiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Increased Loitering Munition Use (Chasiv Yar): 50% increase in Lancet strikes targeting UA artillery and logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Enhanced FPV Drone Payload Threat (Avdiivka): Increasing reports indicate Russian FPV drones are being equipped with thermobaric warheads. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Aggressive RF Rhetoric: Escalation of threatening rhetoric from RF military bloggers and propagandists towards Ukraine, with open mockery of Ukrainian air defenses and explicit threats of future mass attacks, and celebration of hits on civilian areas (Kyiv). New RF claims of UA defense collapse on Kostiantynivka direction. Medvedev's latest statements, mentioning "Dead Hand" system and calling Trump's reaction "nervous," escalate rhetorical threats and aim to project resolve. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming RT's audience in the US is larger than CNN's, indicating an IO effort to shape perceptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Targeting Infrastructure and Communications: Continued adaptive targeting of civilian infrastructure and industrial enterprises (e.g., Vasyshcheve, Kyiv residential buildings/industrial targets, Pavlohrad railway junction, Volgograd railway/gas supply, Penza Radio Plant). Damage to Kyiv railway infrastructure confirms this trend. Военкор Котенок reports the drone attack on a Penza industrial facility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Decoy Deployment (Kherson): The observed "Oduvanchik" wireframe structure near Kherson, described as a passive defense idea for armored vehicles against drones, indicates RF efforts to adapt to Ukrainian drone superiority. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Ammunition & Fuel: RF's continued high-volume KAB (including FAB-1500), Shahed, ballistic, and cruise missile launches, coupled with increased Lancet activity and artillery use, indicate continued substantial availability of munitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Personnel: Ukraine is actively addressing personnel needs through recruitment campaigns and new policies for 25-year-old conscripts. RF continues internal control efforts, recruiting in occupied territories, and introducing military training in schools. Appeals for drone and Starlink support by RF VDV units suggest potential supply issues or demand outstripping official provision. Long queues at Luhansk hospital indicate potential stress on the civilian medical system under occupation. RF legislation to expel foreigners involved in election campaigning suggests tighter internal control and potential recruitment difficulties. Sentencing of a couple for collecting military data indicates continued internal security focus on controlling information flow regarding military personnel. ТАСС reports on the sentencing of a couple for collecting data on military personnel, confirming this internal security focus. Два майора shares a video on tactical medicine training for naval special forces, indicating RF training and sustainment efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Materiel: UA forces are effectively using Bozena 5 demining systems and innovative drone weaponization. RF's ability to field S-400 for ground strikes and new EW systems like Shipovnik-Aero indicates continued production or access to advanced materiel. RF military bloggers soliciting public donations for thermal imagers suggests a shortfall in specific critical equipment. The strike on Penza Radio Plant, identified as a producer of military computing equipment, indicates a potential effort to degrade RF materiel production. Rubezh NGU Brigade's fundraising for lost equipment suggests materiel losses on UA side. Kotsnews recruitment video highlights financial incentives for service, likely in response to personnel needs, implying challenges in voluntary enlistment. The "Oduvanchik" passive defense structure indicates efforts to counter UA drone threats. Colonelcassad shares a video of ZALA Z-16 drones providing targeting for MLRS, indicating continued use of advanced ISR platforms. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• Tactical Level (RF): Effective tactical C2 for reconnaissance and strike missions, including coordinated multi-layered aerial assaults on Kyiv, drone operations, special forces assaults, and ground offensives on the Pokrovsk axis and claimed Chasiv Yar liberation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Operational/Strategic Level (UA): Ongoing governmental C2 over anti-corruption reforms and economic security. Effective information operations C2. Strong military C2 over force generation and readiness, including the formation of new corps. Adaptable C2 in managing personnel and strategic C2 over military and diplomatic efforts. PPO responses and timely public warnings indicate effective C2 of air defense assets and public communication under stress. General Staff of AFU conducting working meetings to enhance unit capabilities demonstrates effective C2. KMA's statements reflect continued C2 of emergency and civilian protection efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Operational/Strategic Level (RF): Centralized strategic C2 over internal information space, social policies, international narratives, and long-term societal militarization. Effective C2 over information operations to exploit Western vulnerabilities. Pragmatic adaptation to maintain critical space infrastructure. Medvedev's rapid response to Trump's comments, and the State Duma's proactive legislation changes, illustrate centralized control over external messaging and internal policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Defensive Posture: UA forces are maintaining defensive posture in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. UA Air Defense active against UAVs and missiles, successfully engaging targets over Kyiv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk, and other areas despite significant impacts. UA forces continue to hold main defensive line along Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal in Chasiv Yar, though RF claims complete liberation. New 16th Army Corps created for Kharkiv defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Offensive Operations: Ukrainian GUR MO special forces conducting successful operations. 66th Separate Mechanized Brigade's FPV drone operations demonstrate active offensive capabilities. Ukrainian soldiers demonstrating innovative drone use in close combat. Active aerial reconnaissance observed. The drone strike on Penza Radio Plant (RF) signifies an active deep strike capability. 12th Azov Brigade videos confirm effective offensive operations against RF personnel. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video of a successful FPV drone strike on a Russian infantryman carrying an anti-tank mine, demonstrating effective tactical drone usage and target acquisition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Readiness: Recruitment campaigns and new policies for 25-year-old conscripts indicate efforts to maintain and build force readiness. General Staff's emphasis on training quality and Syrisky's directives reflect proactive measures to enhance readiness, including extended 51-day basic general military training. Agreements with US on weapons signify continued efforts to enhance readiness. 47th Mechanized Brigade promoting BZVP at their base indicates active training and force generation efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:
  • Successes: GUR MO obtained legal evidence of Russian child abduction. 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a major RF mechanized assault, destroying 8 MBTs and 14 IFVs/APCs. Shootdown of 5 RF reconnaissance UAVs. UA drone units successfully targeted RF SA-13, 2S1 Gvozdika. President Zelensky highlighted successful GUR successes and agreements with the US on weapons. Creation of 16th Army Corps. 10th OGShBr repelled an RF assault, destroying 13 motorcycles. PPO successfully engaging UAVs and some missiles over various oblasts. Signing of airspace infrastructure restoration memorandum. General Staff of the AFU reports approx. 1070 RF personnel losses in the last 24 hours. The situation in Kryvyi Rih is reported as controlled. Drone strike on Penza Radio Plant (RF). Video footage from UA sources (Birds of Madyar) shows successful targeting and elimination of an RF soldier on the Pokrovsk axis. STERNENKO confirms 174 targets intercepted by "Shahedorez" project, highlighting successful counter-UAV efforts. 12th Azov Brigade demonstrates successful elimination of occupiers. High number of intercepts (291/317 targets) reported by Air Force/Operatyvnyi ZSU demonstrates significant air defense capability against massed attacks, despite some penetrations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 317 aerial attack assets were engaged overnight and in the morning. ASTRA reports 5 direct missile hits and 21 drone hits, indicating some direct hits despite high interception rates. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows a successful FPV drone strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Setbacks: Continued KAB/missile strikes (Vasyshcheve, Pavlohrad, Kyiv - 6 fatalities, 52 injured, 10 missing, now 82 injured) and ground advancements by RF on Kharkiv and Pokrovsk axes. RF claims of deep penetration into Pokrovsk residential areas and complete liberation of Chasiv Yar are significant setbacks if confirmed. Ukrainian 55th Separate Artillery Brigade facing shortages of trained personnel and technical means. Deployment of Shipovnik-Aero EW system presents a new and significant threat. Reduced water supply to four cities in Donetsk Oblast. Kyiv experienced widespread impacts, fires, and casualties from the recent Shahed and ballistic/cruise missile attacks, indicating continued vulnerability. Damage to railway infrastructure in Kyiv represents a setback to logistics. Two casualties reported in Zaporizhzhia region from RF attack (17-year-old boy, 64-year-old woman). Rubezh NGU Brigade reports destroyed property and equipment, indicating recent losses. The loss of a second battalion commander in 5 days, as reported by Butusov Plus, suggests significant leadership attrition in some units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Critical Needs: Shortages in trained personnel and technical means for 55th Separate Artillery Brigade. Continuous demand for military personnel. Immediate resupply of ATGM systems and FPV drones to Avdiivka axis. Urgent need for more air defense assets (interceptors for Shahed, reactive drones, ballistic/cruise missiles), particularly given the scale and impact of the current Kyiv attack. Urgent need for excavators for rapid position-equipping. Rubezh NGU Brigade is actively fundraising for equipment and property restoration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Financial Aid: Pending NABU/SAP bill vote crucial for unblocking EU financial aid. Continued need for external military aid (US agreements). US senators proposing European-funded weapon fund for Kyiv. STERNENKO's public appeal to "convert rage into help for the army" implies ongoing need for financial and material support from the civilian population. STERNENKO also reports the US Treasury has imposed its largest package of sanctions against Iran since 2018, which could indirectly impact RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Anti-Corruption Measures: Continued delay in appointing BEB director. Ongoing anti-corruption efforts highlight persistent challenge. Операция Z propagates claims that the head of the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office admitted a decline in US interest and "political revenge" from Kyiv, a narrative likely intended to discourage external aid and support for reforms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Disinformation: RF continues to push narratives blaming Ukraine for civilian casualties, false flag incidents, and portraying Ukrainian losses/weaknesses (e.g., claimed elimination of foreign mercenaries near Pokrovsk). Amplifying internal Ukrainian issues (mobilization, corruption, protests) and discrediting Ukrainian leadership. Openly celebrating attacks on "enemy capital" (Kyiv), mocking UA air defenses, and explicitly linking strikes to retaliation or Western policy. Exaggerating territorial gains (e.g., Pokrovsk penetration, Chasiv Yar liberation). Distributing videos of alleged torture of RF soldiers. RF sources are reinforcing claims of Chasiv Yar capture with video of flag raising. TASS reporting on Kymakovsky's claim of Kostiantynivka defense collapse is intended to demoralize UA forces. The unverified claim of US nuclear weapons in the UK is likely a disinfo attempt to escalate tensions. TASS attributes "Air Danger" in Penza to Ukrainian UAVs. RF sources likely to link Kyiv attacks to perceived Western provocations, as seen in the Operatyvnyi ZSU message attributing it to Trump's deadline. Medvedev's public comments, mentioning "Dead Hand" and calling Trump "nervous," are high-level information operations to project power and deter Western interference. ARCHENGEL SPETSNAZ spreads unverified claims about SBU suspecting Mexican cartel members in UA forces to learn FPV drone skills, likely to discredit UA forces. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition frames the liberation of Chasiv Yar as a decisive battle for Donbass. Alex Parker Returns amplifies this, including Russian flags planted in the city. ТАСС promotes its report on the conviction of a couple for collecting military data for Ukraine, aimed at highlighting Ukrainian "terrorist" activities. Alex Parker Returns comments on the Crocus attack, stating experts concluded it was financially, not ideologically, motivated, potentially deflecting from extremist elements and portraying perpetrators as "biological drones" manipulated by "customers." Рыбарь shares a video about Moldova, potentially aiming to influence internal politics or international relations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UA Counter-Propaganda: GUR MO's release of legal evidence of Russian child abductions. Ukrainian officials countering negative narratives about mobilization. Transparently addressing corruption issues. Direct engagement with families of POWs. Reporting on RF attacks on civilian infrastructure and humanitarian crises (e.g., Kyiv casualties, Luhansk hospital queues). Officials like Minister Klimenko are providing real-time updates from strike sites. Publishing data on RF losses. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration continuing daily minute of silence to reinforce national unity and commemorate fallen. DeepState map contradicting RF Chasiv Yar claims serves as a critical counter-narrative. Zelenskiy's public statements on the scale of the overnight attack and the impact on civilians serve as critical counter-narratives. Klitschko's statements on child casualties in Kyiv highlight RF's targeting of civilians. Journalists reporting from damaged civilian sites reinforce this narrative. The General Prosecutor's Office reports defending the punishment of a Russian State Duma deputy, highlighting UA's continued legal fight and adherence to rule of law. Zaporizhzhia OVA promoting a creative contest is a soft power counter-narrative to build morale. KMA's statements emphasize the human cost of the attacks and their efforts to aid civilians. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukrainian Public Sentiment: Morale impacted by continued RF strikes and ground advancements. The current high casualty count (6 dead, 52 injured, 10 missing, now 82 injured in Kyiv) from missile attacks will severely test civilian morale and increase demands for effective air defense and protection. Public support for recruitment and fundraising for military equipment remains strong. Protests for NABU/SAP independence indicate a public desire for internal reform. The focus on missing persons in Kyiv will further impact morale and trust in protective measures. Zelenskiy's public address and images of destruction will reinforce public outrage and calls for more aid. The "two walls rule" narrative shared by a journalist highlights a proactive civilian adaptation to attacks. STERNENKO's call to action to "convert rage into help" shows an attempt to channel negative sentiment into productive support. KMA's direct reporting on casualties and fear for children reflects the deep impact on public morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian Public Sentiment: RF government attempting to control public discourse. Public concerns about social issues (migration, forced returns to conflict zones in Belgorod, internal security incidents involving servicemen). Aggressive rhetoric from pro-RF channels may be a tactic to rally hardline support and suppress internal dissent. Celebration of Kyiv strikes by military bloggers is intended to boost internal morale. Appeals for public crypto donations engage civilian support. New laws regarding foreigners in election campaigning indicate tightening internal control. Sever.Realii's comment that "the entire community of Russians can be declared extremist" reflects growing concern over internal repression and shrinking civil liberties. The reporting on Trump-Medvedev exchanges suggests some public interest in geopolitical developments and possibly a desire for strong leadership. ТАСС reports on internal security measures and court sentences, potentially intended to deter dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Support for Ukraine: GUR MO's evidence of child abductions likely strengthening international support. NABU/SAP bill vote critical for EU financial aid. President Zelensky's agreements with the US strong signal of continued support. US Senators proposing European-funded weapon fund for Kyiv. Memorandum on restoring Ukrainian airspace infrastructure indicates international cooperation. STERNENKO reports the US Treasury imposed its largest sanctions package on Iran since 2018, which aligns with international efforts to counter destabilizing actors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Challenges for Ukraine: Continued delay in appointing BEB director. Reported shortages in 55th Separate Artillery Brigade highlighting persistent need for assistance. Rubezh NGU Brigade's fundraising effort highlights ongoing equipment losses and the need for sustained support. Операция Z disseminates the claim that the head of the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office admitted a decline in US interest and "political revenge" from Kyiv, a narrative likely intended to undermine confidence in international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian International Relations: RF attempting to shape international narratives by accusing Ukraine of "terrorism." Reinforcing geopolitical alliances (Syria, Nicaragua). Highlighting Turkish naval uncrewed systems. Portraying Western disunity. Discussing space cooperation with NASA to project an image of constructive international engagement. The unverified claim of US nuclear weapons in the UK by an RF propaganda outlet is designed to provoke international reaction and sow discord. Trump's public comments critical of Medvedev are being reported by RF channels, indicating interest in political developments. Medvedev's direct response to Trump, mentioning nuclear capabilities, aims to project strength and deter international pressure. ТАСС reports on the F-35 crash in California, which Russian media may use to subtly imply Western military vulnerabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

• MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action):
  • RF Ground Operations: RF will maintain high offensive pressure on the Pokrovsk axis, attempting to consolidate gains and conduct further mechanized assaults towards Prohres within the next 24-48 hours. They will continue urban penetration attempts into Pokrovsk. RF will leverage the claimed liberation of Chasiv Yar for both strategic advantage and propaganda, and likely attempt further offensive operations from this foothold, potentially towards Kostiantynivka. RF will continue localized advances in Kharkiv region and Donetsk Oblast. RF will continue to probe Ukrainian defenses along other Eastern axes, especially Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Air/Missile/UAV Operations: RF will continue daily KAB strikes (including FAB-1500) on Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and other frontline regions. Expect continued, potentially larger, waves of Shahed (Geran) UAVs targeting urban and industrial centers, including Kyiv and Western Ukraine. RF will continue repeated layered aerial attacks on Kyiv, immediately following drone waves with ballistic and cruise missile launches to overwhelm and penetrate air defenses, potentially employing reactive UAVs and cluster munitions. RF will continue targeted drone strikes on industrial facilities within Russia, for attribution to Ukraine, or targeting legitimate military-industrial sites within RF. RF will continue claiming high rates of destruction of UA UAV control points and drones. Given the confirmed strikes on railway infrastructure in Kyiv and Pavlohrad, RF will likely prioritize further degradation of Ukrainian logistics networks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Hybrid Operations: RF will intensify information warfare, including false flag operations and narratives aimed at discrediting Ukraine's mobilization efforts and international image, with increasingly aggressive rhetoric, particularly through military bloggers, who will openly mock Ukrainian air defenses and threaten future mass attacks, celebrating hits on civilian residential areas. Internal repression and information control measures will continue to tighten within Russia, including measures against perceived foreign influence. RF will seek to exploit any emerging fissures within Western alliances, and amplify statements from external actors that support their narrative. Expect increased focus on narratives of Ukrainian defensive collapse and Western aggression/nuclear proliferation, with high-level figures like Medvedev engaging directly in rhetorical escalation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action):
  • RF Breakthrough on Pokrovsk Axis: RF achieves a decisive breakthrough on the Pokrovsk axis, leading to a rapid collapse of Ukrainian defenses and significant territorial gains, compromising Ukraine's defensive integrity in the east. This could be exacerbated by renewed mechanized assaults and urban infiltration. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Massive Civilian Casualty Event in Kyiv/Kharkiv/Zaporizhzhia: RF conducts a highly destructive and targeted missile/KAB/Shahed strike on a high-density civilian area, resulting in a large number of casualties and overwhelming local emergency services. The recent strike on Kyiv (6 dead, 52 injured, 10 missing, now 82 injured) significantly elevates the risk of this scenario repeating or escalating. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Successful Canal Crossing (Chasiv Yar) under EW Cover: RF forces successfully establish a significant bridgehead across the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal under the cover of the Shipovnik-Aero EW system, leading to the rapid outflanking or encirclement of UA defenders. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:
  • Kyiv Air Defense & Civilian Protection: Immediate and ongoing vigilance and rapid response are critical within the next 0-6 hours due to the confirmed ballistic missile strike and rising casualties. Prioritize rapid damage assessment and humanitarian assistance. Continue to manage expectations regarding further attacks. Immediately dispatch additional emergency services and medical teams to reported residential impacts in Sviatoshynskyi and Solomianskyi districts for search and rescue operations, expecting high and rising casualties, and focusing on the 10 reported missing persons. Establish emergency traffic reroutes around affected areas in Kyiv. Conduct rapid BDA on damaged railway infrastructure and implement immediate repair plans to minimize logistical disruption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar Defenses & EW Countermeasures: Immediate ISR tasking and rapid development/dissemination of tactical guidance for drone operators against Shipovnik-Aero EW are critical within the next 24 hours. Immediate verification of RF claims of Chasiv Yar liberation is paramount for defensive adjustments. Monitor for any signs of direct pressure on Kostiantynivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pokrovsk Axis: Critical decisions on reinforcements and defensive lines are required within the next 24-72 hours, especially in light of claimed RF advances and resumed mechanized assaults. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NABU/SAP Bill Vote: The Rada vote on the NABU and SAP bill tomorrow (31 JUL) is a crucial decision point. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare Response: Ukraine's ability to effectively counter RF disinformation and aggressive rhetoric will be critical over the next 24-72 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Avdiivka Materiel Resupply: Immediate resupply of ATGM systems and additional FPV drones to the 47th Mechanized Brigade and adjacent units is critical within the next 12-24 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pavlohrad Monitoring: Initiate immediate ISR collection and analysis on Pavlohrad to understand RF interest or potential plans within the next 24-48 hours, especially given the recent strike on agricultural and transport enterprises. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• RF Objectives on Pokrovsk Axis: Specific RF military objectives beyond Rodinskoye and Myrnohrad, and the true extent of the claimed "pinching" movement, are unclear. The depth and strength of claimed RF penetration into Pokrovsk residential areas requires urgent verification, as do claims of foreign mercenary elimination. The veracity and extent of RF advances near Zelenaya Dolina and Karpovka need independent verification. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Chasiv Yar Claims Verification: Independent verification of RF MoD's claim of full liberation of Chasiv Yar and the current situation on the ground. This is the most critical immediate intelligence gap, particularly for the southern parts of the city. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF UGV Production/Deployment: Full scale of RF UGV production and their planned integration into wider ground operations remains unknown. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Naval Modernization: Impact of reported collapse of RF key fleet renewal project on their Black Sea Fleet capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Personnel Mobilization: Extent of resistance to conscription within RF and the effectiveness of new recruitment tactics is unclear. Effectiveness of local recruitment in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Nature of French Cyberattack: Exact perpetrators, methods, and full extent of data exfiltration or system damage are unknown. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF "Italmas" UAV Development: Information on the capabilities, production, and intended deployment of the "Italmas" UAV is extremely limited. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Drone Interception Capability: Details of RF's "Yolka" air defense drone capabilities are unknown. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• GPS Spoofing System Identification: The specific type and location of the sophisticated RF EW system responsible for GPS spoofing in Zaporizhzhia are still unidentified. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF "Electric Scooter" Doctrine: The scale of deployment and intended tactical doctrine for "combat electric scooters" is unclear. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Impact of Trump's Ultimatum: Immediate and long-term impact of Trump's "10-day deadline" on RF strategic decision-making, Western unity, and international support for Ukraine remains highly uncertain. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• UA Public Donation Trends: The specific reasons for the reported "dip" in public donations and its broader implications for public morale and sustained support require further analysis. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Specifics of current Kyiv Shahed/Missile attack: Precise number of drones, primary targets (beyond general residential and industrial areas, and Zhuliany), and full BDA on all impact sites are still being assessed. The full BDA on over 27 affected locations in Kyiv. The precise number and nature of hits on industrial targets in Kyiv claimed by Poddubny needs BDA. The full extent of damage to railway infrastructure in Kyiv requires detailed assessment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Laser Weapon System ("Posokh" project): Independent verification of its capabilities, stage of development, and deployment timeline. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• RF Interest in Pavlohrad: The exact nature of RF's interest in Pavlohrad (e.g., intelligence collection, targeting, future operational planning) beyond the recent strike. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• RF Thermal Imager Shortfall: The extent of the thermal imager shortfall within RF forces, and the effectiveness of public donation campaigns in mitigating this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• US Nuclear Weapons in UK: Independent verification of the claim regarding the delivery of US nuclear weapons to the UK. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian Battalion Commander Losses: The exact circumstances and implications of the reported loss of a second RF battalion commander in 5 days, including impact on unit cohesion and chain of command effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize Kyiv Air Defense & Civilian Protection (URGENT): Immediately redeploy all available short- and medium-range air defense systems to further strengthen Kyiv's air defense, particularly around critical infrastructure and densely populated civilian areas. Accelerate the provision of interceptors for Shahed, reactive drones, and ballistic/cruise missiles, especially those capable of engaging cluster munitions. Ensure rapid response and civilian protection protocols are activated, including immediate damage assessment and humanitarian assistance in impacted areas. Prioritize informing the civilian population of safe sheltering locations, such as metro stations, and enforce compliance during air raid alerts. Immediately dispatch additional emergency services and medical teams to reported residential impacts in Sviatoshynskyi and Solomianskyi districts for search and rescue operations, expecting high and rising casualties, and focusing on the 10 reported missing persons. Establish emergency traffic reroutes around affected areas in Kyiv. Conduct rapid BDA on damaged railway infrastructure and implement immediate repair plans to minimize logistical disruption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2. Verify Chasiv Yar Status and Adjust Defenses (URGENT): Immediately conduct comprehensive ISR (IMINT, HUMINT, SIGINT) to verify RF claims of complete liberation of Chasiv Yar and specifically confirm the situation in the southern part of the city. If confirmed, rapidly establish new defensive lines west of the canal, reinforce all units in the area, and prepare for potential counter-offensives. Prioritize ISR on the Shipovnik-Aero EW system for neutralization and immediate tactical guidance to drone operators. Monitor for any signs of direct pressure on Kostiantynivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
3. Reinforce Eastern Fronts and Verify Pokrovsk Penetration: Prioritize immediate deployment of additional artillery, armored vehicles, and infantry reinforcements to the Pokrovsk axis, particularly to support the 55th Separate Artillery Brigade. Urgently conduct ISR to verify the extent and strength of RF penetration into Pokrovsk residential areas and investigate claims of foreign mercenary elimination. Prepare for and repel anticipated major mechanized assaults towards Prohres, leveraging the success of the 47th Mechanized Brigade. Conduct rapid BDA and verify RF MoD claims of seizing fortified areas on the approaches to Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Monitor and counter RF advances in Kharkiv region, near Kupyansk, and Serebryanka, particularly in the 7 newly impacted settlements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
4. Counter-Disinformation Operations and Aggressive Rhetoric: Immediately launch a coordinated counter-propaganda campaign to disseminate GUR MO's legal evidence of Russian child abductions. Actively refute RF false flag narratives regarding civilian casualties and fabricated incidents. Counter RF narratives on internal issues and actively disseminate information about RF targeting of civilian infrastructure and logistics hubs (e.g., Pavlohrad, Kyiv railway). Expose RF's reliance on public cryptocurrency donations as a sign of their resource constraints. Directly counter RF military blogger PSYOPS and narratives about Ukrainian leadership, specifically addressing the recent aggressive and mocking rhetoric regarding air defense failures and explicit threats of future mass attacks, and their claims regarding Zhuliany Airport and damage to Kyiv Polytechnic. Develop and disseminate compelling narratives countering RF propaganda related to mobilization efforts, specifically addressing the recent aggressive rhetoric and the use of captured UA personnel (e.g., the 'Aidar' battalion video) to discredit Ukrainian forces and internal morale. Highlight RF's internal issues, such as airport restrictions and the persistent ISS air leak, to portray a less stable internal situation. Directly counter and expose RF military bloggers like "Два майора" and "Colonelcassad" who are celebrating civilian casualties and destruction in Kyiv, using their own content to demonstrate RF's intent to terrorize the civilian population. Refute unverified claims of US nuclear weapons delivery to the UK, highlighting them as RF disinformation. Develop and disseminate counter-narratives to ARCHENGEL SPETSNAZ's claims regarding Mexican cartel members in UA forces. Explicitly counter RF narratives concerning the Crocus attack, emphasizing the true nature of the perpetrators' motivations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
5. Accelerate NABU/SAP Reform: Urge Rada to promptly pass the NABU and SAP bill to unblock crucial EU financial aid. Actively counter RF propaganda designed to undermine confidence in these reforms, leveraging public support for transparency. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
6. Personnel and Equipment Assessment: Conduct urgent assessment of 55th Separate Artillery Brigade's specific personnel and technical means shortages and implement a rapid resupply and training program. Leverage successful FPV drone tactics and prioritize provision of excavators for rapid entrenchment. Support fundraising efforts for units like the Rubezh NGU Brigade to address equipment losses. Investigate the reported loss of a second battalion commander in 5 days to determine if systemic issues are contributing to leadership attrition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
7. ISR Focus on RF Drone Ops and EW: Intensify ISR collection on RF drone operations and their capabilities, especially the increased Lancet activity, FAB-1500, and reactive drone strikes. Prioritize SIGINT and IMINT tasking to locate and characterize the Shipovnik-Aero EW system. Develop and disseminate immediate tactical guidance for drone operators on potential countermeasures (e.g., alternative frequencies, revised flight paths). Prioritize targeting of this EW asset. Increase ISR on RF tactical aviation activity in northeastern directions for early warning and targeting. Conduct forensic analysis of any captured "Baba Yaga" drones or their components to understand RF counter-drone tactics. Prioritize BDA on the Penza Radio Plant strike to assess its impact on RF military computing production capabilities. Conduct rapid BDA on the Volgograd Oblast railway incident to understand its impact on RF logistics. Monitor RF's development and deployment of passive drone protection systems like "Oduvanchik" for potential widespread integration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
8. Prepare for Mechanized Assaults (Avdiivka Axis): Prioritize immediate resupply of ATGM systems (Javelin, Stugna-P) and additional FPV drones to the 47th Mechanized Brigade and adjacent units. Anticipate another major mechanized assault towards Prohres within the next 24-48 hours. Continue BZVP training at the 47th Mechanized Brigade base. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
9. Northern Border Defensive Posture: Maintain heightened vigilance and readiness against reconnaissance and strike UAVs in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts. Increase border patrol effectiveness against draft evasion attempts. Prioritize interception of reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
10. Sustain Mine Clearance Operations: Continue and expand mine clearance efforts, particularly in regions like Kherson Oblast, to improve maneuverability and reduce civilian risk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
11. Implement Underground Training: Rapidly implement Syrisky's directive to transfer military training underground. Review and update 51-day BZVP program for maximum effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
12. Integrate 25-Year-Old Conscripts: Expedite full integration of newly formalized 25-year-old conscript reserve pool into training and deployment, ensuring adequate training and support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
13. Address Donetsk Water Shortages: Ukrainian authorities must immediately assess full impact of water supply reductions and implement emergency water distribution plans, and investigate the cause of the reductions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
14. Expedite 16th Army Corps Readiness: Accelerate the formation, equipping, and training of the newly created 16th Army Corps to bolster Kharkiv's defenses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
15. Support Siversk Defenses: Provide immediate support to 10th OGShBr to maintain their defensive successes against RF assaults, including materiel and personnel, and analyze RF's continued use of motorcycles in assaults. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
16. Zhytomyr Oblast Air Defense: Rapid deployment of additional air defense assets and personnel to Zhytomyr Oblast within the next 12-24 hours, given the new trajectory of Shahed UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
17. Monitor Pavlohrad: Prioritize ISR collection and analysis on Pavlohrad to determine the nature of RF interest or potential plans for this key logistical and industrial hub, especially after the confirmed strikes on agricultural and transport enterprises. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
18. Address Zaporizhzhia Casualties: Provide immediate support to local authorities in Zaporizhzhia region to address the two reported casualties and assess the extent of damage from the recent Russian attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

---

END OF SITREP