Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 310600Z JUL 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide missile and UAV threat from RF persists. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kyiv Oblast: RF has conducted a ballistic missile strike on Kyiv, following a very high-volume Shahed UAV attack and previous ballistic/cruise missile strikes. KMA reports impacts on residential buildings in Sviatoshynskyi and Solomianskyi districts. Latest reporting indicates 6 confirmed fatalities (4 in Sviatoshynskyi, 2 in Solomianskyi), including a 6-year-old child, and 52 injured, including 9 children. Emergency services are conducting search and rescue. National Police confirm traffic is blocked on several streets. Klitschko reports police personnel among the injured. RF sources overtly celebrate attacks on "enemy capital" and mock Ukrainian air defenses, claiming Zhuliany Airport (Patriot SAM position and UAV assembly workshops) and industrial enterprises were targeted. Ukraine's Minister of Internal Affairs, Ihor Klimenko, is on-site at a destroyed building, providing updates on rescue operations, confirming individuals trapped. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: КАBs inbound. RF conducted missile strike on a suburb of Kharkiv (Vasyshcheve), resulting in fires and 8 casualties, including rescue workers. RF sources claim powerful strike on UA Armed Forces warehouse in Kharkiv Oblast and advance towards the Kharkiv-Kupyansk road. Oleg Synyehubov confirms significant damage to civilian structures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk (Pokrovsk Axis): RF forces are the most actively advancing, with battles begun in Dimitrov (Myrnohrad) and improved RF positions in Rodinskoye. RF sources claim significant advancement towards Volodymyrivka, effectively "pinching" Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk. RF sources now claim assault units have entered the residential areas of Pokrovsk, establishing positions near the market, asserting approximately 5km of advance into the city center. Drone footage of Pokrovsk shows visible destruction. RF sources are using FPV drones of the "CENTRE" grouping against UA personnel in the battles for Dimitrov. RF MoD claims assault troops have seized fortified areas of the AFU on the approaches to Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). TASS claims RF forces advanced 1.5 km into AFU defenses near Zelenaya Dolina and advanced near Karpovka in DNR. "Операция Z" claims elimination of foreign mercenaries, including a US combatant, near Pokrovsk. TASS claims "South" group destroyed Western-produced equipment near Konstantinovka. Water supply to four cities in Donetsk Oblast will be reduced. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar Direction: RF MoD, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Операция Z, and Kotsnews all claim the complete liberation of Chasiv Yar by Russian forces after months of fighting. TASS reports RF forces destroyed the largest grouping of AFU in Chasiv Yar in the history of the SVO. First confirmed operational deployment of the Shipovnik-Aero mobile EW complex. 50% increase in Lancet strikes targeting UA artillery and logistics. UA drone successfully targeted RF SA-13 'Gopher' SAM system, a fortified position/dugout, and a 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Siversk Direction: 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade (10th OGShBr) successfully repelled an enemy assault, destroying 13 motorcycles. TASS reports RF forces destroyed a Ukrainian defensive line near Serebryanka in DNR and are flanking entrenched enemy units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy Oblast: Russians continue to assault with small infantry groups. Enemy UAVs detected in Chernihiv Oblast moving towards Sumy Oblast. KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. Russia struck Sumy Oblast administration building for the third time in three days. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RF KABs confirmed inbound. RF is conducting an active campaign to recruit local residents for service in occupation forces. RF sources claim UA shelling of a children's playground in Vasilyevka, injuring two children, later updated to three. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports continued RF attacks on civilian infrastructure in Orikhiv, Hulyaypole, and Kamianske. RF 7th Airborne Division appealing for drone and Starlink donations due to enemy EW. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): Enemy attacked Nikopolshchyna with FPV drones and artillery. Воин DV claims 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade destroyed a UA armored vehicle and truck in Dibrova and Novoselovka. New group of strike UAVs detected heading northwest. Explosions reported in Samara, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian PPO reports destroying 15 enemy drones in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson Oblast: Ukrainian engineering troops have cleared nearly 3,000 hectares of mines. RF forces dropping flags onto a railway bridge near Kherson from a drone, likely a psychological operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Threat of enemy strike UAVs from the south. Shahed UAVs reported heading north-northeast. UA reports a household building caught fire in Kremenchuk district due to falling enemy UAV debris. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Western Ukraine: Air raid alert due to strike UAVs gradually spreading to Western Ukraine. Shaheds are now reported to be moving towards / through Zhytomyr Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kryvyi Rih: Situation reported as controlled. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pavlohrad Interest: Colonelcassad reports a large-scale fire at Pavlohrad railway junction (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) after a combined missile and drone strike overnight, labeling it "one of the largest logistics hubs" for Ukrainian formations. This confirms previous indications of RF interest in Pavlohrad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia:
  • Belgorod Oblast: Residents of Krasnoyaruzhsky district will be evicted from temporary accommodation points starting August 1st, despite ongoing shelling. Ministry of Defense reports 13 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Rostov and Belgorod Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Bryansk Oblast: Video shows an explosion on a body of water, possibly a mine or artillery impact, claimed to be in Bryansk Oblast. Drone security reported. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov Oblast: Ministry of Defense reports 13 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Rostov and Belgorod Oblasts. 5 UAVs destroyed in Rostov Oblast, causing a forest fire from falling debris. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volgograd Oblast: Restrictions on aircraft reception and departure were imposed at Volgograd Airport by Rosaviatsia, then lifted. A massive UAV attack was repelled, disrupting gas supply to 65 private homes and train movement on Kotelnikovo-Kanalnaya section due to UAV debris fall on railway infrastructure. A large fire reported in Kotelnikovo after UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Saratov Airport: Temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure imposed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Penza Oblast: Drone attacks reported on a factory, identified by Ukrainian sources as Penza Radio Plant (part of Rostec). RF sources distribute video of a large explosion and fire, describing it as an attack on an enterprise. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kamchatka Region: Nine earthquakes (M4.2-M5.5) occurred within an hour, indicating ongoing seismic activity. Minimal ecological consequences reported, but aftershocks expected for months. Ash emission from Klyuchevskoy volcano. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security: FSB detained teenagers allegedly involved in railway arsons. Ministry of Education and Science official detained for embezzlement. Russian Federal Air Transport Agency annulled the certificate of Irkutsk airline "Angara" for aircraft maintenance. One of the leaders of the banned RDK, Kiryushchenko, заочно arrested on terrorism charges. Mobilized serviceman convicted for attempting to retrieve drugs. RF war participant stole a family heirloom for alcohol. Former Sochi mayor accused of embezzlement. A minor planned to set fire to relay cabinets in Krasnoyarsk for money. Police in Khabarovsk Krai reported on a law enforcement operation, likely internal security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Occupied Luhansk: Video depicting a street scene shows significant litter and neglect. Large queue of civilians outside Luhansk Republican Clinical Hospital. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vostochny Cosmodrome: TASS reports anti-terrorist exercises were held at Vostochny Cosmodrome. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • California, USA: Colonelcassad reports an F-35 fighter jet crashed in California near Lemoore Naval Air Station, identified as Fresno County, with significant fire and smoke. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Kharkiv Oblast: Continued RF strikes cause fires and damage. Synyehubov warns of impending severe weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Donetsk/Luhansk (Occupied): Ongoing fires in fields, likely due to shelling. Video from Luhansk shows significant debris and neglect. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• General Conditions: Continued operations in adverse weather conditions (rain affecting visibility). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kamchatka (RF Far East): Nine earthquakes (M4.2-M5.5) could impact infrastructure and resource allocation. Aftershocks expected for months. Ash emission from Klyuchevskoy volcano. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kherson Direction: "Два майора" mentions "strong wind" during drone footage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kotelnikovo (RF): Large fire observed after UAV attack, impacting railway and gas supply. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Rostov Oblast (RF): Falling debris from destroyed UAVs caused a forest fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Penza (RF): Plume of dark smoke rising from a drone strike on Penza Radio Plant. Large explosion and fire confirmed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kremenchuk Raion: UA reports a household building caught fire due to falling enemy UAV debris. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kyiv Oblast: Night photos show aftermath of attack in residential/semi-rural area. Large plume of smoke and flames rising from Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Pavlohrad: Large-scale fire at railway junction after combined missile/drone strike indicates significant environmental impact and disruption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF Force Dispositions:
  • Air Assets: RF continues KAB launches on Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Sumy Oblasts. New groups of strike UAVs (Shaheds) identified in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts moving south, and a group in Chernihiv Oblast moving north towards Kyiv. Strike UAVs also detected spreading towards Western Ukraine and in Kirovohrad Oblast. A new group of Shaheds detected in Dnipropetrovsk heading northwest. RF is actively using FPV drones in Dnipropetrovsk (Nikopolshchyna) and Chasiv Yar directions. RF FAB-1500 strike reported in Kupyansk. A very high volume of Shaheds recently converged on/over Kyiv from multiple directions, followed by ballistic and cruise missile threats. First rockets entered Kyiv via Brovary, with explosions confirmed from cruise missiles, followed by a confirmed ballistic missile strike. TASS reports 13 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Rostov and Belgorod Oblasts, and 5 over Rostov alone. TASS and ASTRA report 32 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions and annexed Crimea overnight. UA reports 15 enemy drones destroyed by PPO in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 explicitly claims Zhuliany Airport (Kyiv) was under a massive RF attack. Poddubny claims impacts near Zhuliany Airport (Patriot SAM position and UAV assembly workshops) and industrial enterprises working for AFU in Kyiv. RF sources confirm a combined missile-drone strike on Pavlohrad railway junction. RF MoD claims 44 UAV control points and 28 drones destroyed by "Zapad" Grouping. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Forces: Persistent offensive pressure on the Pokrovsk axis, with claimed advancements into residential areas of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk). RF small infantry group assaults in Sumy Oblast. RF Special Forces "AKHMAT" Group "Bati" operating in Kharkiv direction, with 44th Army Corps assault detachments conducting demining. RF is engaged in recruitment campaigns for local residents in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF VDV units appealing for drone and Starlink support due to UA EW. 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade reportedly destroyed a UA armored vehicle and truck in Dibrova and Novoselovka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). "Операция Z" claims Russian forces eliminated a group of foreign mercenaries, including a US combatant, near Pokrovsk. TASS claims "South" group destroyed Western-produced equipment near Konstantinovka. RF MoD claims assault troops have seized fortified areas of the AFU on the approaches to Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). TASS reports RF forces advancing on Kharkiv sector, striking UA in five settlements, and taking control of 1km of highway near Kupyansk. TASS claims RF forces advanced 1.5 km into AFU defenses near Zelenaya Dolina and advanced near Karpovka in DNR. RF MoD claims to have liberated Chasiv Yar, with TASS reporting destruction of the largest AFU grouping there. TASS reports RF forces destroyed a Ukrainian defensive line near Serebryanka in DNR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Control Measures: RF Ministry of Justice added Alexei Navalny's book to extremist materials list. TASS reports on Roscosmos reporting continued air leak in ISS module and new agreements for joint ISS deorbiting until 2030. TASS claims Crocus attackers were paid, not religious fanatics. Police in Khabarovsk Krai initiated criminal proceedings for justifying terrorism. TASS reports Russia is becoming a world leader in fintech. TASS reports the car ramming incident after the Crocus attack was part of the terrorist attack. TASS reports former State Duma deputy Alexander Barannikov was fined for promoting LGBT content. TASS reports the share of imports from "unfriendly countries" has decreased threefold. TASS reports Tina Kandelaki has been declared wanted by the SBU in Ukraine. TASS reports Nicaragua's Co-Presidents sent a message of solidarity to Putin. TASS reports former Sochi mayor Kopaygorodsky accused of large-scale embezzlement. TASS reports a minor planned to set fire to relay cabinets in Krasnoyarsk for money. TASS reports over 250 participants in the AFU's invasion of Kursk Oblast has been convicted in the RF. TASS reports "Eksmo" publishing house will continue to publish Dina Rubina's books despite her statements on Gaza population. TASS reports Nikita Mikhalkov believes Russia should not submit its film for "Oscar" nomination. TASS reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been imposed at Saratov airport. TASS reports that Russia and the US are not yet negotiating nuclear disarmament. TASS reports that Vershinin stated US non-participation in the Palestine conference did not affect its productivity. TASS reports "Angara" airline has cancelled part of its flights. TASS reports Russia and Syria continue contacts on bases for security and humanitarian aid. TASS reports that Canada will recognize Palestine in September at the UN General Assembly. TASS reports that it is premature to talk about high-level meetings between Russia and Ukraine. TASS reports Trump stating he doesn't care about trade ties between New Delhi and Moscow. TASS reports anti-terrorist exercises were held at Vostochny Cosmodrome. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Friendly Forces (UA):
  • Government & Internal Security: Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal states that 90% of mobilization is proceeding normally. Rada is set to vote on a crucial bill regarding NABU and SAP tomorrow. President Zelensky discusses GUR operations and successful cooperation with US partners on defense contracts and drone technology. General Staff of UA Armed Forces emphasizes quality of training as priority. Syrisky demands maximum transfer of UA Armed Forces training underground. Syrisky announces updated Basic General Military Training (BZVP) program is now 51 days long. 25-year-old conscripts will be granted "soldier or sailor in reserve" status without TCC & SP call-up. KMA highlights World Central Kitchen's support for Kyiv. Kyiv municipal workers are continuing operations amidst the current attack. Ihor Klimenko, Minister of Internal Affairs, is on-site at a destroyed building in Kyiv, providing updates on search and rescue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Military Action: Ukrainian "Predator" Brigade recruitment advertisements. Film "Road of Death" made about a Ukrainian GUR MO special forces operation. Successful FPV drone strikes by the 66th Separate Mechanized Brigade. Ukrainian engineering troops cleared nearly 3,000 hectares of mines in Kherson Oblast. Successful shootdown of 5 RF reconnaissance UAVs. UA drone successfully targeted RF SA-13 'Gopher' SAM system, a fortified position/dugout, and a 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer. "BULAVA" unit of Separate Presidential Brigade used a drone with a grenade launcher for the first time. STERNENKO reports young benefactor raised 10,000 UAH for "Shahedorez." A new 16th Army Corps is being created to defend Kharkiv Oblast. 10th OGShBr successfully repelled an RF assault on the Siversk direction, destroying 13 motorcycles. Ukrainian forces are actively seeking support for excavators. PPO was active over Kyiv, responding to current Shahed attacks and missile threats. UA reports 15 enemy drones destroyed by PPO in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. General Staff of the AFU reports approx. 1070 RF personnel losses in the last 24 hours. Silo oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny issued an operational update for 08:00 (05:00Z). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Border Control: Ukrainian border guards in Odesa detained an individual attempting to flee Ukraine disguised as a woman. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Civilian Support: Protests regarding NABU/SAP independence were held in Kyiv. Large numbers of civilians in Kyiv sheltered in metro stations due to drone attacks. Emergency services actively engaged in rescue and recovery in Kyiv. Klitschko reports police among the injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Air/Missile/UAV: Capable of large-scale KAB launches (including FAB-1500) and persistent, multi-vector drone operations (Shaheds, reactive drones, FPV drones with thermobaric warheads) reaching Northern Kyiv and Western Ukraine. Demonstrated capability for coordinated, multi-layered aerial assaults on Kyiv, immediately following high-volume drone attacks with ballistic and cruise missile launches. Confirmed use of ballistic missiles on Kyiv, with claims of cluster warheads. Capable of striking industrial and logistics hubs such as Pavlohrad. Capable of employing mobile EW complexes (Shipovnik-Aero) to disrupt UAV C2. Capable of shooting down Ukrainian UAVs over Russian territory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Forces: Capable of sustained offensive operations, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis, utilizing small infantry groups, special forces, and now company-sized mechanized assaults. Demonstrated capability for urban penetration by small assault groups. Capable of clearing fortified positions and securing logistics routes. Claimed liberation of Chasiv Yar and destruction of largest AFU grouping indicates capability for significant territorial gains and attrition of Ukrainian forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Electronic Warfare (EW): Demonstrated advanced EW capabilities with the first operational deployment of the Shipovnik-Aero mobile EW complex near Chasiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Operations: Highly capable of generating and disseminating false flag narratives, exploiting internal Ukrainian issues, discrediting Ukraine and its leadership, and promoting narratives of their own advances. Increased aggressive rhetoric, openly mocking Ukrainian air defenses and celebrating hits on residential buildings. Utilizing military bloggers for real-time information warfare, fundraising, and morale boosting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Intentions:
  • Strategic Attrition: Continue to degrade Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure through persistent, high-intensity, layered aerial strikes (KABs, Shaheds, ballistic/cruise missiles), with a clear intent to terrorize the population and overwhelm air defenses. This is confirmed by the ongoing Kyiv strikes, the targeting of residential buildings, and the celebration of these attacks by RF sources. Intent to target logistics hubs like Pavlohrad. Inflict heavy casualties on UA personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Territorial Expansion: Maintain and intensify ground pressure on the Pokrovsk axis, aiming for a decisive breakthrough and consolidation of urban centers (e.g., Pokrovsk). Continue probing actions in Sumy Oblast and utilizing special forces in Kharkiv. Exploit claimed breakthroughs like Chasiv Yar for further offensive operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare/Propaganda: Continuously blame UA for civilian casualties and disseminate propaganda discrediting Ukraine and its armed forces. Promote narratives of their own advances and Ukrainian losses (e.g., claimed liberation of Chasiv Yar and destruction of AFU grouping). Intensify psychological operations against Ukrainian population. Control internal narratives regarding significant events and enforce social conservatism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Courses of Action: RF will continue massed aerial attacks, primarily with KABs (including FAB-1500) and Shahed UAVs, now extending to Northern Kyiv Oblast, Western Ukraine, and key logistics hubs like Pavlohrad, immediately followed by ballistic and cruise missile launches. Ground offensives will persist on the Pokrovsk axis with further mechanized assaults and urban penetration attempts. RF will continue to utilize drones for reconnaissance and targeting, increasing Lancet strikes, leveraging new EW systems. RF will intensify information warfare campaigns, with increasingly aggressive rhetoric, and continue to control and exploit internal dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Intensified Layered Air/Missile Strikes on Kyiv & Expanded Range: The immediate follow-up of a very high-volume Shahed attack with ballistic and cruise missile threats and a confirmed ballistic strike on Kyiv (causing 6 fatalities, 52 injured, including children, and widespread residential damage) demonstrates a highly coordinated, multi-layered aerial assault strategy aimed at overwhelming air defenses and maximizing terror/damage. Expanded Shahed range to Northern Kyiv and Western Ukraine. First reported FAB-1500 strike on Kupyansk. Confirmed strike on Pavlohrad railway junction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Aggressive Ground Maneuvers (Pokrovsk & Chasiv Yar): Ongoing "intensely escalating" situation on the Pokrovsk axis, with claimed advancements into residential areas of Pokrovsk and resumed company-sized mechanized assaults. RF "CENTRE" grouping employing FPV drones in the battles for Dimitrov. RF MoD claims complete liberation of Chasiv Yar and destruction of largest AFU grouping there. TASS reports RF forces destroyed a Ukrainian defensive line near Serebryanka in DNR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Electronic Warfare Deployment (Chasiv Yar): First confirmed operational deployment of the Shipovnik-Aero mobile EW complex near Chasiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Increased Loitering Munition Use (Chasiv Yar): 50% increase in Lancet strikes targeting UA artillery and logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Enhanced FPV Drone Payload Threat (Avdiivka): Increasing reports indicate Russian FPV drones are being equipped with thermobaric warheads. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Aggressive RF Rhetoric: Escalation of threatening rhetoric from RF military bloggers and propagandists towards Ukraine, with open mockery of Ukrainian air defense effectiveness and explicit threats of future mass attacks, and celebration of hits on civilian areas (Kyiv). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Targeting Infrastructure and Communications: Continued adaptive targeting of civilian infrastructure and industrial enterprises (e.g., Vasyshcheve, Kyiv residential buildings/industrial targets, Pavlohrad railway junction, Volgograd railway/gas supply, Penza Radio Plant). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Ammunition & Fuel: RF's continued high-volume KAB (including FAB-1500), Shahed, ballistic, and cruise missile launches, coupled with increased Lancet activity and artillery use, indicate continued substantial availability of munitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Personnel: Ukraine is actively addressing personnel needs through recruitment campaigns and new policies for 25-year-old conscripts. RF continues internal control efforts, recruiting in occupied territories, and introducing military training in schools. Appeals for drone and Starlink support by RF VDV units suggest potential supply issues or demand outstripping official provision. Long queues at Luhansk hospital indicate potential stress on the civilian medical system under occupation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Materiel: UA forces are effectively using Bozena 5 demining systems and innovative drone weaponization. RF's ability to field S-400 for ground strikes and new EW systems like Shipovnik-Aero indicates continued production or access to advanced materiel. RF military bloggers soliciting public donations for thermal imagers suggests a shortfall in specific critical equipment. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• Tactical Level (RF): Effective tactical C2 for reconnaissance and strike missions, including coordinated multi-layered aerial assaults on Kyiv, drone operations, special forces assaults, and ground offensives on the Pokrovsk axis and claimed Chasiv Yar liberation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Operational/Strategic Level (UA): Ongoing governmental C2 over anti-corruption reforms and economic security. Effective information operations C2. Strong military C2 over force generation and readiness, including the formation of new corps. Adaptable C2 in managing personnel and strategic C2 over military and diplomatic efforts. PPO responses and timely public warnings indicate effective C2 of air defense assets and public communication under stress. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Operational/Strategic Level (RF): Centralized strategic C2 over internal information space, social policies, international narratives, and long-term societal militarization. Effective C2 over information operations to exploit Western vulnerabilities. Pragmatic adaptation to maintain critical space infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Defensive Posture: UA forces are maintaining defensive posture in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. UA Air Defense active against UAVs and missiles, successfully engaging targets over Kyiv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk, and other areas despite significant impacts. UA forces continue to hold main defensive line along Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal in Chasiv Yar, though RF claims complete liberation. New 16th Army Corps created for Kharkiv defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Offensive Operations: Ukrainian GUR MO special forces conducting successful operations. 66th Separate Mechanized Brigade's FPV drone operations demonstrate active offensive capabilities. Ukrainian soldiers demonstrating innovative drone use in close combat. Active aerial reconnaissance observed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Readiness: Recruitment campaigns and new policies for 25-year-old conscripts indicate efforts to maintain and build force readiness. General Staff's emphasis on training quality and Syrisky's directives reflect proactive measures to enhance readiness, including extended 51-day basic general military training. Agreements with US on weapons signify continued efforts to enhance readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:
  • Successes: GUR MO obtained legal evidence of Russian child abduction. 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a major RF mechanized assault, destroying 8 MBTs and 14 IFVs/APCs. Shootdown of 5 RF reconnaissance UAVs. UA drone units successfully targeted RF SA-13, 2S1 Gvozdika. President Zelensky highlighted successful GUR successes and agreements with the US on weapons. Creation of 16th Army Corps. 10th OGShBr repelled an RF assault, destroying 13 motorcycles. PPO successfully engaging UAVs and some missiles over various oblasts. Signing of airspace infrastructure restoration memorandum. General Staff of the AFU reports approx. 1070 RF personnel losses in the last 24 hours. The situation in Kryvyi Rih is reported as controlled. Drone strike on Penza Radio Plant (RF). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Setbacks: Continued KAB/missile strikes (Vasyshcheve, Pavlohrad, Kyiv - 6 fatalities, 52 injured) and ground advancements by RF on Kharkiv and Pokrovsk axes. RF claims of deep penetration into Pokrovsk residential areas and complete liberation of Chasiv Yar are significant setbacks if confirmed. Ukrainian 55th Separate Artillery Brigade facing shortages of trained personnel and technical means. Deployment of Shipovnik-Aero EW system presents a new and significant threat. Reduced water supply to four cities in Donetsk Oblast. Kyiv experienced widespread impacts, fires, and casualties from the recent Shahed and ballistic/cruise missile attacks, indicating continued vulnerability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Critical Needs: Shortages in trained personnel and technical means for 55th Separate Artillery Brigade. Continuous demand for military personnel. Immediate resupply of ATGM systems and FPV drones to Avdiivka axis. Urgent need for more air defense assets (interceptors for Shahed, reactive drones, ballistic/cruise missiles), particularly given the scale and impact of the current Kyiv attack. Urgent need for excavators for rapid position-equipping. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Financial Aid: Pending NABU/SAP bill vote crucial for unblocking EU financial aid. Continued need for external military aid (US agreements). US senators proposing European-funded weapon fund for Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Anti-Corruption Measures: Continued delay in appointing BEB director. Ongoing anti-corruption efforts highlight persistent challenge. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Disinformation: RF continues to push narratives blaming Ukraine for civilian casualties, false flag incidents, and portraying Ukrainian losses/weaknesses (e.g., claimed elimination of foreign mercenaries near Pokrovsk). Amplifying internal Ukrainian issues (mobilization, corruption, protests) and discrediting Ukrainian leadership. Openly celebrating attacks on "enemy capital" (Kyiv), mocking UA air defenses, and explicitly linking strikes to retaliation or Western policy. Exaggerating territorial gains (e.g., Pokrovsk penetration, Chasiv Yar liberation). Distributing videos of alleged torture of RF soldiers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UA Counter-Propaganda: GUR MO's release of legal evidence of Russian child abductions. Ukrainian officials countering negative narratives about mobilization. Transparently addressing corruption issues. Direct engagement with families of POWs. Reporting on RF attacks on civilian infrastructure and humanitarian crises (e.g., Kyiv casualties, Luhansk hospital queues). Officials like Minister Klimenko are providing real-time updates from strike sites. Publishing data on RF losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukrainian Public Sentiment: Morale impacted by continued RF strikes and ground advancements. The current high casualty count (6 dead, 52 injured in Kyiv) from missile attacks will severely test civilian morale and increase demands for effective air defense and protection. Public support for recruitment and fundraising for military equipment remains strong. Protests for NABU/SAP independence indicate a public desire for internal reform. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian Public Sentiment: RF government attempting to control public discourse. Public concerns about social issues (migration, forced returns to conflict zones in Belgorod, internal security incidents involving servicemen). Aggressive rhetoric from pro-RF channels may be a tactic to rally hardline support and suppress internal dissent. Celebration of Kyiv strikes by military bloggers is intended to boost internal morale. Appeals for public crypto donations engage civilian support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Support for Ukraine: GUR MO's evidence of child abductions likely strengthening international support. NABU/SAP bill vote critical for EU financial aid. President Zelensky's agreements with the US strong signal of continued support. US Senators proposing European-funded weapon fund for Kyiv. Memorandum on restoring Ukrainian airspace infrastructure indicates international cooperation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Challenges for Ukraine: Continued delay in appointing BEB director. Reported shortages in 55th Separate Artillery Brigade highlighting persistent need for assistance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian International Relations: RF attempting to shape international narratives by accusing Ukraine of "terrorism." Reinforcing geopolitical alliances (Syria, Nicaragua). Highlighting Turkish naval uncrewed systems. Portraying Western disunity. Discussing space cooperation with NASA to project an image of constructive international engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

• MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action):
  • RF Ground Operations: RF will maintain high offensive pressure on the Pokrovsk axis, attempting to consolidate gains and conduct further mechanized assaults towards Prohres within the next 24-48 hours. They will continue urban penetration attempts into Pokrovsk. RF will leverage the claimed liberation of Chasiv Yar for both strategic advantage and propaganda, and likely attempt further offensive operations from this foothold. RF will continue localized advances in Kharkiv region and Donetsk Oblast. RF will continue to probe Ukrainian defenses along other Eastern axes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Air/Missile/UAV Operations: RF will continue daily KAB strikes (including FAB-1500) on Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and other frontline regions. Expect continued, potentially larger, waves of Shahed (Geran) UAVs targeting urban and industrial centers, including Kyiv and Western Ukraine. RF will continue repeated layered aerial attacks on Kyiv, immediately following drone waves with ballistic and cruise missile launches to overwhelm and penetrate air defenses, potentially employing cluster munitions. RF will continue targeted drone strikes on industrial facilities within Russia, for attribution to Ukraine. RF will continue claiming high rates of destruction of UA UAV control points and drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Hybrid Operations: RF will intensify information warfare, including false flag operations and narratives aimed at discrediting Ukraine's mobilization efforts and international image, with increasingly aggressive rhetoric, particularly through military bloggers, who will openly mock Ukrainian air defenses and threaten future mass attacks, celebrating hits on civilian residential areas. Internal repression and information control measures will continue to tighten within Russia. RF will seek to exploit any emerging fissures within Western alliances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action):
  • RF Breakthrough on Pokrovsk Axis: RF achieves a decisive breakthrough on the Pokrovsk axis, leading to a rapid collapse of Ukrainian defenses and significant territorial gains, compromising Ukraine's defensive integrity in the east. This could be exacerbated by renewed mechanized assaults and urban infiltration. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Massive Civilian Casualty Event in Kyiv/Kharkiv/Zaporizhzhia: RF conducts a highly destructive and targeted missile/KAB/Shahed strike on a high-density civilian area, resulting in a large number of casualties and overwhelming local emergency services. The recent strike on Kyiv (6 dead, 52 injured) significantly elevates the risk of this scenario repeating or escalating. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Successful Canal Crossing (Chasiv Yar) under EW Cover: RF forces successfully establish a significant bridgehead across the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal under the cover of the Shipovnik-Aero EW system, leading to the rapid outflanking or encirclement of UA defenders. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:
  • Kyiv Air Defense & Civilian Protection: Immediate and ongoing vigilance and rapid response are critical within the next 0-6 hours due to the confirmed ballistic missile strike and rising casualties. Prioritize rapid damage assessment and humanitarian assistance. Continue to manage expectations regarding further attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pokrovsk Axis: Critical decisions on reinforcements and defensive lines are required within the next 24-72 hours, especially in light of claimed RF advances and resumed mechanized assaults. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NABU/SAP Bill Vote: The Rada vote on the NABU and SAP bill tomorrow (31 JUL) is a crucial decision point. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare Response: Ukraine's ability to effectively counter RF disinformation and aggressive rhetoric will be critical over the next 24-72 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar Defenses & EW Countermeasures: Immediate ISR tasking and rapid development/dissemination of tactical guidance for drone operators against Shipovnik-Aero EW are critical within the next 24 hours. Immediate verification of RF claims of Chasiv Yar liberation is paramount for defensive adjustments. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Avdiivka Materiel Resupply: Immediate resupply of ATGM systems and additional FPV drones to the 47th Mechanized Brigade and adjacent units is critical within the next 12-24 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pavlohrad Monitoring: Initiate immediate ISR collection and analysis on Pavlohrad to understand RF interest or potential plans within the next 24-48 hours, especially given the recent strike. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• RF Objectives on Pokrovsk Axis: Specific RF military objectives beyond Rodinskoye and Myrnohrad, and the true extent of the claimed "pinching" movement, are unclear. The depth and strength of claimed RF penetration into Pokrovsk residential areas requires urgent verification, as do claims of foreign mercenary elimination. The veracity and extent of RF advances near Zelenaya Dolina and Karpovka need independent verification. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Chasiv Yar Claims Verification: Independent verification of RF MoD's claim of full liberation of Chasiv Yar and the current situation on the ground. This is the most critical immediate intelligence gap. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF UGV Production/Deployment: Full scale of RF UGV production and their planned integration into wider ground operations remains unknown. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Naval Modernization: Impact of reported collapse of RF key fleet renewal project on their Black Sea Fleet capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Personnel Mobilization: Extent of resistance to conscription within RF and the effectiveness of new recruitment tactics is unclear. Effectiveness of local recruitment in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Nature of French Cyberattack: Exact perpetrators, methods, and full extent of data exfiltration or system damage are unknown. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF "Italmas" UAV Development: Information on the capabilities, production, and intended deployment of the "Italmas" UAV is extremely limited. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Drone Interception Capability: Details of RF's "Yolka" air defense drone capabilities are unknown. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• GPS Spoofing System Identification: The specific type and location of the sophisticated RF EW system responsible for GPS spoofing in Zaporizhzhia are still unidentified. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF "Electric Scooter" Doctrine: The scale of deployment and intended tactical doctrine for "combat electric scooters" is unclear. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Impact of Trump's Ultimatum: Immediate and long-term impact of Trump's "10-day deadline" on RF strategic decision-making, Western unity, and international support for Ukraine remains highly uncertain. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• UA Public Donation Trends: The specific reasons for the reported "dip" in public donations and its broader implications for public morale and sustained support require further analysis. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Specifics of current Kyiv Shahed/Missile attack: Precise number of drones, primary targets (beyond general residential and industrial areas, and Zhuliany), and full BDA on all impact sites are still being assessed. The full BDA on over 27 affected locations in Kyiv. The precise number and nature of hits on industrial targets in Kyiv claimed by Poddubny needs BDA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Laser Weapon System ("Posokh" project): Independent verification of its capabilities, stage of development, and deployment timeline. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• RF Interest in Pavlohrad: The exact nature of RF's interest in Pavlohrad (e.g., intelligence collection, targeting, future operational planning) beyond the recent strike. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• RF Thermal Imager Shortfall: The extent of the thermal imager shortfall within RF forces, and the effectiveness of public donation campaigns in mitigating this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize Kyiv Air Defense & Civilian Protection (URGENT): Immediately redeploy all available short- and medium-range air defense systems to further strengthen Kyiv's air defense, particularly around critical infrastructure and densely populated civilian areas. Accelerate the provision of interceptors for Shahed, reactive drones, and ballistic/cruise missiles, especially those capable of engaging cluster munitions. Ensure rapid response and civilian protection protocols are activated, including immediate damage assessment and humanitarian assistance in impacted areas. Prioritize informing the civilian population of safe sheltering locations, such as metro stations, and enforce compliance during air raid alerts. Immediately dispatch additional emergency services and medical teams to reported residential impacts in Sviatoshynskyi and Solomianskyi districts for search and rescue operations, expecting high and rising casualties. Establish emergency traffic reroutes around affected areas in Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2. Verify Chasiv Yar Status and Adjust Defenses (URGENT): Immediately conduct comprehensive ISR (IMINT, HUMINT, SIGINT) to verify RF claims of complete liberation of Chasiv Yar. If confirmed, rapidly establish new defensive lines west of the canal, reinforce all units in the area, and prepare for potential counter-offensives. Prioritize ISR on the Shipovnik-Aero EW system for neutralization and immediate tactical guidance to drone operators. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
3. Reinforce Eastern Fronts and Verify Pokrovsk Penetration: Prioritize immediate deployment of additional artillery, armored vehicles, and infantry reinforcements to the Pokrovsk axis, particularly to support the 55th Separate Artillery Brigade. Urgently conduct ISR to verify the extent and strength of RF penetration into Pokrovsk residential areas and investigate claims of foreign mercenary elimination. Prepare for and repel anticipated major mechanized assaults towards Prohres, leveraging the success of the 47th Mechanized Brigade. Conduct rapid BDA and verify RF MoD claims of seizing fortified areas on the approaches to Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Monitor and counter RF advances in Kharkiv region, near Kupyansk, and Serebryanka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
4. Counter-Disinformation Operations and Aggressive Rhetoric: Immediately launch a coordinated counter-propaganda campaign to disseminate GUR MO's legal evidence of Russian child abductions. Actively refute RF false flag narratives regarding civilian casualties and fabricated incidents. Counter RF narratives on internal issues and actively disseminate information about RF targeting of civilian infrastructure and logistics hubs (e.g., Pavlohrad). Expose RF's reliance on public cryptocurrency donations as a sign of their resource constraints. Directly counter RF military blogger PSYOPS and narratives about Ukrainian leadership, specifically addressing the recent aggressive and mocking rhetoric regarding air defense failures and explicit threats of future mass attacks, and their claims regarding Zhuliany Airport and damage to Kyiv Polytechnic. Develop and disseminate compelling narratives countering RF propaganda related to mobilization efforts, specifically addressing the recent aggressive rhetoric and the use of captured UA personnel (e.g., the 'Aidar' battalion video) to discredit Ukrainian forces and internal morale. Highlight RF's internal issues, such as airport restrictions and the persistent ISS air leak, to portray a less stable internal situation. Directly counter and expose RF military bloggers like "Два майора" and "Colonelcassad" who are celebrating civilian casualties and destruction in Kyiv, using their own content to demonstrate RF's intent to terrorize the civilian population. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
5. Accelerate NABU/SAP Reform: Urge Rada to promptly pass the NABU and SAP bill to unblock crucial EU financial aid. Actively counter RF propaganda designed to undermine confidence in these reforms, leveraging public support for transparency. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
6. Personnel and Equipment Assessment: Conduct urgent assessment of 55th Separate Artillery Brigade's specific personnel and technical means shortages and implement a rapid resupply and training program. Leverage successful FPV drone tactics and prioritize provision of excavators for rapid entrenchment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
7. ISR Focus on RF Drone Ops and EW: Intensify ISR collection on RF drone operations and their capabilities, especially the increased Lancet activity, FAB-1500, and reactive drone strikes. Prioritize SIGINT and IMINT tasking to locate and characterize the Shipovnik-Aero EW system. Develop and disseminate immediate tactical guidance for drone operators on potential countermeasures (e.g., alternative frequencies, revised flight paths). Prioritize targeting of this EW asset. Increase ISR on RF tactical aviation activity in southeastern directions for early warning and targeting. Conduct forensic analysis of any captured "Baba Yaga" drones or their components to understand RF counter-drone tactics. Prioritize ISR on the Penza Radio Plant strike to assess its impact on RF military production capabilities. Conduct rapid BDA on the Volgograd Oblast railway incident to understand its impact on RF logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
8. Prepare for Mechanized Assaults (Avdiivka Axis): Prioritize immediate resupply of ATGM systems (Javelin, Stugna-P) and additional FPV drones to the 47th Mechanized Brigade and adjacent units. Anticipate another major mechanized assault towards Prohres within the next 24-48 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
9. Northern Border Defensive Posture: Maintain heightened vigilance and readiness against reconnaissance and strike UAVs in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts. Increase border patrol effectiveness against draft evasion attempts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
10. Sustain Mine Clearance Operations: Continue and expand mine clearance efforts, particularly in regions like Kherson Oblast, to improve maneuverability and reduce civilian risk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
11. Implement Underground Training: Rapidly implement Syrisky's directive to transfer military training underground. Review and update 51-day BZVP program for maximum effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
12. Integrate 25-Year-Old Conscripts: Expedite full integration of newly formalized 25-year-old conscript reserve pool into training and deployment, ensuring adequate training and support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
13. Address Donetsk Water Shortages: Ukrainian authorities must immediately assess full impact of water supply reductions and implement emergency water distribution plans, and investigate the cause of the reductions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
14. Expedite 16th Army Corps Readiness: Accelerate the formation, equipping, and training of the newly created 16th Army Corps to bolster Kharkiv's defenses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
15. Support Siversk Defenses: Provide immediate support to 10th OGShBr to maintain their defensive successes against RF assaults, including materiel and personnel, and analyze RF's continued use of motorcycles in assaults. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
16. Zhytomyr Oblast Air Defense: Rapid deployment of additional air defense assets and personnel to Zhytomyr Oblast within the next 12-24 hours, given the new trajectory of Shahed UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
17. Monitor Pavlohrad: Prioritize ISR collection and analysis on Pavlohrad to determine the nature of RF interest or potential plans for this key logistical and industrial hub. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

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END OF SITREP