Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 291500Z JUL 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide threat from RF missile and UAV attacks persists. UA air defense units, drone systems, army aviation, and mobile fire groups actively engaged enemy aerial threats across multiple oblasts. RF attacked with two ballistic missiles and 37 drones overnight. UA Air Force reports 32/37 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed and 0/2 Iskander-M missiles intercepted. Latest report from Zelenskyy states 22 killed and 85 wounded in Ukraine due to Russian shelling in the last 24 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kyiv Oblast: Air raid alerts due to high-speed targets detected. Multiple civilian apartments damaged, 8 casualties including a 3-year-old child reported in Darnitsky district from a night RF attack. A downed Iranian Shahed-136 drone (Russian Geran 2) confirmed over Kyiv. Power outages affect ~30,000 families due to weather, potentially exacerbating issues from RF strikes. A large public gathering in central Kyiv, commemorating the Olenivka tragedy, indicates continued public focus on POWs. New intelligence indicates a high-level meeting at the Coordination Staff for POWs to discuss rehabilitation, reintegration, psychological support, and new approaches to exchange lists for returned POWs. New enemy UAV detected in Makariv region, Kyiv Oblast. UA Air Force reports assets deployed to intercept. Security measures, including potential document checks, are underway in Desnyanskyi district, involving SBU and National Police. Prosecutor General's Office reports 11.5 million UAH misappropriated from Kyivpastrans during electricity supply, leading to suspicion notification for the company director. KMVA (UA source) posts photo messages promoting commemoration of fallen soldiers and a new culture of honoring defenders. A suspicious object was found at the "Lybidska" metro station in Kyiv, but the "Lybidska" metro station has resumed normal operations (entrance and exit). Office of the Prosecutor General reports the detention of leadership and doctors of a Kyiv medical institution for accepting money to "arrange" disabilities, indicating continued friendly force posture against internal corruption. KMVA video shows Zelenskyy visiting a Ukrainian defense enterprise in Kyiv Oblast producing electronics and sensitive components for missiles, drones, and secure communication. Over 80% of production supports defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Khmelnytska Oblast: Confirmed main target of enemy missile and drone trajectories overnight, with explosions reported. New intelligence confirms 13 officials in Khmelnytska Oblast notified of suspicion, with budget losses exceeding 10 million UAH and undeclared assets of 30 million UAH. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poltava Oblast: Multiple missiles flying towards Poltava Oblast. Ballistic threat to Pryluky persists. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Explosions reported in Kropyvnytskyi, with fire liquidation continuing after night RF attack. UAVs detected heading for Kropyvnytskyi. Damage to State Emergency Service (DSNS) building and equipment in Kropyvnytskyi confirmed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: 3 UAVs were shot down overnight. Threat of aviation munitions for Synelnykivskyi district. Two casualties reported due to RF attack. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs detected. "Grey zone" reported on DeepState maps. Basurin (RF source) claims UA forces surrendered Maliivka. New ballistic missile threat identified for Kamenskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a potential for a second launch. Enemy UAVs detected in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, currently inbound towards Pavlohrad. UA Air Force confirms. Russian army conducted a missile strike on Kamenskoye. Russian army used FPV drones and KABs in attacks on Mezhivska, Dubovikivska, and Slov'ianska communities in Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Casualties and damage reported in Kamenskoye due to missile strike. ASTRA reports new photo evidence of damage in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, including a maternity hospital and clinic, with 4 killed and 8 wounded, including a pregnant woman. Aftermath photos show significant damage to civilian structures and vehicles in Kamenskoye, indicating direct hits on residential areas. RF sources ([Операция Z] Военкоры Русской Весны) claim powerful strike on Kamenskoye hit a military rehabilitation center, supported by video/photo evidence showing damage to "9th Hospital" and urban areas. RF sources ([Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition]) released video footage allegedly showing fighting for Maliivka, Dnipropetropsk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports 3 fatalities, including a pregnant woman, due to RF strikes on medical facilities in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with accompanying photo messages. Военкор Котенок (RF source) posts photo messages claiming Kamenskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, was hit by an "Iskander" missile overnight, with photos showing debris and building damage, consistent with a strike. Операция Z (RF source, citing Военкоры Русской Весны) releases video footage claiming Russian forces liberated Maliivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, due to "mercenaries fleeing without a fight," showing ground combat and drone activity. UA source Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) posts photo messages from Kamenskoye, depicting damage cleanup and emergency services work following a night missile strike. The images confirm significant structural damage to buildings, likely residential, and civilian cleanup efforts. The accompanying text states "liquidating the consequences of the night missile strike" and mentions involvement of charities. New video shows emergency personnel carrying an injured individual at night, with a burning tree in the background, likely in Kamenskoye following the missile strike. UA source Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports 22 people were injured in the night attack on Kamenskoye, including 10 medical workers (nurses, obstetricians, anesthesiologists), confirming significant civilian casualties and damage to medical infrastructure. UA source Оперативний ЗСУ reports 22 injured, including 10 medical workers, from the Kamenskoye hospital strike. RBC-Ukraine reports 22 casualties from the Kamenskoye hospital strike. UA Air Force reports a threat of aviation munitions for Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo messages with captions indicating 7-month pregnant woman "Diana" and unborn child were killed by RF attack, supporting ASTRA's report of casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson Oblast: Enemy continues attempts to control the island zone in the Dnieper delta, maintaining intensive artillery shelling and aviation strikes. Clashes reported yesterday near Prydniprovske. Ukrainian police video shows officers providing first aid to injured individuals, likely civilians, in a damaged outdoor environment in Kherson. New intelligence indicates an alleged UA attack on Tendrovska Spit in Kherson Oblast. RF sources ([Два майора]) posted a video regarding the "Kherson direction," content unclear but indicates continued RF focus. TASS reports that Saldo (RF source) stated Russian Armed Forces repelled an attempt by Ukrainian Armed Forces to land on Tendrovska Spit in Kherson Oblast, using four boats and Bayraktar drone cover. TASS reports Saldo claiming Ukrainian forces retreated to Odesa with losses after the failed landing attempt on Tendrovska Spit. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 5 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo message stating "Occupants are creating a 'death strip' from the Dnipro to the front line in the Kherson direction," indicating perceived RF tactical adjustments in this area and continued danger to civilians. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Eastern Axes (General): Continued ground combat reported on Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka directions. RF tactical aviation active, including launches of guided aerial bombs. Continued effective UA FPV drone strikes on RF ground targets. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Ternove — Dnipropetrovsk oblast, Kostyantynivka, Ivanopillya, Markove, Svitle — Donetsk oblast, Zaliznychne, Bilohirya, Novoandriyivka, Bilenke — Zaporizhzhia oblast, Lvove — Kherson oblast, according to General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports operational information as of 16:00, indicating continued activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Kramatorsk Direction: КАБs inbound. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Predtechyne in the Kramatorsk direction. RF source reports Ukrainian military personnel in Konstantinovka stated to CNN about personnel shortages. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Phoenix unit destroying enemy motorcyclists on Kostiantynivka direction, indicating active defense. Два майора reports on Konstantinovka direction, quoting a Ukrainian Armed Forces commander named Vasily about the situation on that side of the front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Donetsk Oblast (General): KABs inbound to Donetsk Oblast. Threat of strike UAVs to Sloviansk identified by UA Air Force. UA Air Force reports renewed KAB launches towards Donetsk Oblast. UA Air Force reports KABs inbound to Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Siversk Direction: New map indicates RF Airborne forces active. Areas include Siversk, Serebryanka, Hryhorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Bilohorivka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka and towards Vyyimka in the Siversk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk (Pokrovsk Axis): Situation intensely escalating. RF forces are most actively advancing on the Krasnoarmeyskiy direction (Pokrovsk axis), with battles begun in Dimitrov (Myrnohrad) and improved RF positions in Rodinskoye. RF forces also advanced on the Krasnolimansky direction. Reconnaissance drone observed providing RF tactical intelligence on Pokrovsk. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports Boris Rozhin discussing Russian forces' success in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), claiming no continuous defense by UA, and stating Russian DRGs have entered the city, with fire control over a road near Rodinskoye. This suggests RF is attempting to operationally encircle UA forces, and that Rodinskoye could fall within 1-2 weeks if no UA reinforcements arrive. Rybar posts an updated map showing the situation as of 28 JUL 25. Video footage from the Pokrovsk direction indicates intense fighting, featuring drone operators from the 414th UAV Brigade "Birds of Madyar." RF sources ([Народная милиция ДНР]) posted a video claiming 3 Ukrainian National Guard soldiers surrendered in the Dimitrov (Myrnohrad) area, likely related to RF advances on the Pokrovsk axis. STERNENKO (UA Source) reports increasing requests for support from Pokrovsk, indicating heightened pressure. Operatsiya Z (RF source, citing Voenkor RusVesna) provides drone footage of a military vehicle, possibly a BBM, in combat operations on the Krasnoarmeyskiy direction (Pokrovsk). General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Popiv Yar, Mayak, Novoekonomichne, Razine, Lysivka, Chunyshyne, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novomykolayivka, Horikhove, Zelenyy Kut and Dachne in the Pokrovsk direction. RF MoD claims liberation of Novoukrainka in Donetsk People's Republic. Colonelcassad confirms RF MoD claim of Novoukrainka liberation. Военкор Котенок (RF source) confirms RF MoD claim of Novoukrainka liberation. Операция Z (RF source) also confirms liberation of Novoukrainka. Kotsnews reports "Battle for Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad," indicating continued RF offensive pressure in this axis. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) reports "Battle for Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad," consistent with Kotsnews, indicating continued RF focus on this axis. Сливочный каприз (RF source) posts photo message with caption "29.07.25 Krasnoarmeysk-Vladimirovka" which appears to be a battle map or tactical diagram. This indicates continued, active RF operations in the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction and potentially new advances or objectives towards Vladimirovka. New video from Операция Z provides drone footage showcasing direct engagement with military targets, including destruction of what is identified as an enemy vehicle and armored personnel carrier in the Pokrovsk direction. RF source Colonelcassad posts video of drone footage from the Donbas showing military operations including reconnaissance of populated areas and potential targets. RF source Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts drone reconnaissance footage from the southwest DND region, focusing on a settlement and showing a fire/explosion event, confirming ongoing military activity in populated areas, likely related to RF advances towards Aleksandrogad and Iskra. Colonelcassad reports that Russian troops have entered Krasnoarmeysk, with initial DRG (sabotage and reconnaissance groups) infiltration occurring last week, and the situation for UA forces in Myrnohrad is also deteriorating. Colonelcassad posts video of a "Molniya" (Lightning) drone striking an enemy assault group. NEW: Операция Z reports Russian army entered Kolodezi, advancing towards Lyman (Lyman-Kupiansk Axis). (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) NEW: TASS posts video of a Lancet drone strike on three artillery positions of enemy forces, specifically identifying a 155mm piece as destroyed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk (Occupied): Mash na Donbasse reports severe water shortage in Kirovsky district of Donetsk. RF is launching guided aerial bombs (KABs). Donetsk under massive strike, with power outages. ASTRA reports occupied Donetsk subjected to a massive drone attack, causing power outages. More than 150,000 subscribers in Donetsk, Makiivka, and Yasynuvata are without electricity due to shelling by the AFU. CyberBoroshno reports a "sea" substation at 330kv in Donetsk was hit. Ukrainian source (Шеф Hayabusa) reposts a message from another user noting that Donetsk was developed under Ukrainian control, but is now degraded under Russian occupation. This indicates continued morale issues within occupied territories. Operatyvnyi ZSU (UA source) provides video from a Donetsk resident claiming 11 years of bombardments, water, and energy blockades, and damage to the Kuzma Canal and Vodiane. This is likely RF propaganda blaming UA for destruction. Mash na Donbasse (RF source) reports damage to the "Pushkinsky" Business Center in Donetsk from overnight Ukrainian drone attacks, claiming no casualties. ASTRA also reports this. Mash na Donbasse reports over 40,000 residents of Donetsk are without power due to night attacks by the AFU. Dva Mayora (RF source) confirms mass drone attack on Donetsk overnight, providing associated photo evidence of damage (unclear if military or civilian). Basurin (RF source) released video footage showing the aftermath of a "massive attack" by Ukrainian UAVs on the Pushkinsky Business Center in central Donetsk, corroborating previous reports of civilian infrastructure damage. Mash na Donbasse (RF source) reports UA attacked residential complex "Favorit" in Kiyevsky district of Donetsk, supported by video evidence of damage. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts photo messages showing consequences of drone strikes on Pushkinsky Business Center and Favorit residential complex in Donetsk. Filolog v zasade (RF source) reports that machine gun boxes are being sold freely in the center of Donetsk, indicating a breakdown of internal security and a potential illicit arms market. Pushilin (RF source) reports that Ukrainian shelling has caused interruptions to electricity and water supply in DPR. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ (RF source) posts photos and video confirming an "incursion" on Donetsk, showing damaged buildings and debris, consistent with damage from a drone attack, with smoke visible. Mash na Donbasse (RF source) posts photo messages claiming nearly 88,000 residents in Donetsk are without power due to Ukrainian shelling, which damaged 544 transformer substations. WarGonzo (RF source) reports that more than 150,000 residents of DPR are without power due to a massive attack by AFU, consistent with earlier reports. Mash na Donbasse reports a significant plume of dark smoke rising from a populated area on the outskirts of Donetsk, suggesting a fire or explosion, potentially caused by military action. ASTRA reports 100 Russian aviation bombs "accidentally descended" on Russian regions and occupied territories of Ukraine in 2025. Mash na Donbasse reports car washes in DNR will be disconnected from the central water supply system due to water shortages. ASTRA posts video message of children from DPR appealing to Putin for water, highlighting the humanitarian crisis in occupied territories. Военкор Котенок reports that investigators from the RF Investigative Committee are documenting the aftermath of the night UAV attack on Donetsk. Шеф Hayabusa posts video of a Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations (MCHS) officer and a service dog inspecting rubble, captioned "Never before and here it is again," indicating a response to the recent damage in Donetsk, framing it as a recurring event. Mash na Donbasse reports that residents of Chervonogvardeisky district in Makeevka will be without water today. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: Active work of UA air defense units, drone systems, army aviation, and mobile fire groups overnight. Nine settlements hit by enemy strikes. Threat of strike UAVs. UA Air Force reports a UAV in the Kharkiv area; caution advised. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs detected. Clashes yesterday in South Slobozhansky direction near Vovchansk, Zelene, Fyholivka, Zapadne and towards Petro-Ivanivka. Kadyrov's "Zapad-AKHMAT" battalion active near Vovchansk. A group of enemy strike UAVs inbound from Belgorod Oblast to Kharkiv Oblast. Colonelcassad (RF source) provides video footage and claims about "ukhilyanty" (evaders) in Kharkiv carrying spades to defend against "lyudolovy" (man-catchers), indicating severe conscription efforts and potential civil unrest. "Shaheds" reported in eastern Kharkiv Oblast moving west. Two explosions heard in Izyum (Kharkiv Oblast), confirmed by MVA. New enemy reconnaissance UAVs detected in Kharkiv Oblast. UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in northern Kharkiv Oblast. TASS reports UA forces fled from Radkivka, Kharkiv Oblast, after RF strikes on strongholds and fortified areas. This claim needs independent verification, but indicates RF pressure in this area. RF source Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims strike drones (Geran) attacked military targets in Izyum, Kharkiv Oblast. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a map showing Russian forces advancing towards the Kharkiv-Kupyansk road to cut off UA supply routes. Operatsiya Z (RF source) reports the Russian army continues to encircle and storm Kupyansk, attempting to cut off AFU logistics. ASTRA reports 2 fatalities in Kharkiv Oblast due to an attack. Basurin (RF source) claims Tornado-S MLRS destroyed combat vehicles, an ammunition depot, a UAV command post, and manpower of AFU in Kharkiv direction. Oleh Synehubov, Kharkiv RMA Head, reports multiple photo messages related to an address by President Trump on peace talks and RF actions, indicating continued public focus on international support amidst conflict. Oleh Synehubov, Kharkiv RMA Head, provides information report on the situation in the operational zone of OTU "Kharkiv" as of morning 29.07.2025, detailing continued operational activity. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) posts video from Kharkiv Oblast claiming RF reconnaissance located and "Tornado-S" MLRS destroyed enemy combat vehicles, an ammunition depot, a UAV command post, and manpower, showcasing effective combined arms targeting. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Zelene and Krasne Pershe in the South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Stepova Novoselivka, Kindrashivka and Lozova in the Kupyansk direction. National Police report RF struck Novoplatonivka, Kharkiv Oblast, killing 5 and wounding 3. Oleh Synehubov, Kharkiv RMA Head, reports RF shelling Borivska community. RBC-Ukraine reports RF used MLRS against a store in Kharkiv Oblast, causing casualties. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts video of Ukrainian soldier "Sfinks" discussing his motivation, combat experience in Afghanistan and Ukraine, and emphasizing resilience against shelling and drone attacks. He stresses understanding tactical situations and the broader European duty to support Ukraine. RBC-Ukraine photo messages show consequences of RF strikes on Kharkiv Oblast, including civilian damage. STERNENKO (UA source) posts video from an Omega special unit drone, showing aerial reconnaissance over a rural area, with "violators" being punished for "illegal flights," likely referring to enemy aerial assets. STERNENKO (UA source) posts video of a damaged maternity ward in Kharkiv Oblast, confirming civilian infrastructure damage. Kadyrov_95 posts video showcasing successful drone operations by the "Izya" UAV unit of "AHMAT" special forces in the Kharkiv direction, showing aerial reconnaissance and targeted strikes on alleged Ukrainian militant hideouts and positions. Oleg Synehubov posts photo messages congratulating Kharkiv Cyberpolice on their 16th anniversary, indicating continued focus on cyber defense capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy Oblast: Three fatalities due to RF attack. Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation (KABs). Ukrainian SOF active. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs detected. Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in the Sumy area; caution advised. Confirmed strike on the "Zvezda" ammunition plant in Shostka on 26.07. UA 225th Separate Assault Battalion (OShP) shows footage from liberated Kindrativka. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports the Russian army has expanded its zone of control near Myropillia in Sumy Oblast, showing a map indicating territorial gains. UA Air Force reports enemy UAVs from Kursk Oblast inbound to Sumy Oblast. UA Air Force reports KABs inbound to Sumy Oblast. UA Air Force reports a group of Shahed drones in central Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. New enemy reconnaissance UAV reported in northern Sumy Oblast. Possible PPO activity. UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in northern Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad (RF source) provides video footage of claimed liquidation of UA positions and equipment in Sumy Oblast. WarGonzo (RF source) provides a map showing the "Sumskoe Napravlenie" (Sumy Direction) frontline summary as of July 29, 2025. UA Air Force reports KABs incoming to Sumy Oblast. TASS reports RF forces struck a temporary deployment point of AFU with Geran-2 UAVs in Zinovo, Sumy Oblast. Voenkor Kotonok (RF source) provides video of "Geran" drones striking targets in Sumy direction, with visuals of damage to a multi-story building, consistent with an industrial or military facility. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 10 Russian army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. ASTRA reports two individuals from Kursk were hospitalized after a drone attack, indicating a successful UA strike across the border. New high-speed target detected in Sumy Oblast, course southwest. Старше Эдды posts video showing claimed combat in the Sumy direction, with drone footage of ground operations and explosions, indicating continued enemy activity in the area. Два майора posts video from the Sumy direction, showing ground operations and drone footage. RBC-Україна posts photo messages showing damage to a tax office building in Sumy Oblast due to an enemy attack, confirming civilian infrastructure damage. UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs northeast of Chernihiv. UA Air Force reports KABs incoming to Sumy Oblast. UA Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video from Sumy, claiming the city is being used as a testing ground for Russia's "Italmas" UAVs, showing an unidentified delta-wing drone in flight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chernihiv Oblast: High-speed missile detected. Explosion reported near Pryluky, Chernihiv Oblast. Enemy reconnaissance UAV detected. New intelligence from Операция Z (RF source) claims Russian army struck Pryluky airbase, targeting a US "Black Hawk" UH-60 of GUR special forces. UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast. Операция Z (RF source) posts video of "Special Forces burning enemy armored vehicles in Chernihiv direction," claiming successful strikes. New ballistic missile threat from northeast direction. UA Air Force reports enemy UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast, with possible PPO activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alert lifted. Aviation munitions threat. Enemy reconnaissance UAV detected. Over 800 RF strikes in 24 hours in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with RF increasing pressure on frontline territories and "hunting civilians." New intelligence from UA Air Force reports KABs (guided aerial bombs) inbound for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 81-year-old woman wounded in Pologyi district due to enemy shelling. Russian forces attacked a penitentiary facility in Zaporizhzhia Oblast overnight, resulting in casualties (killed and wounded). UA sources (РБК-Україна, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ) confirm the RF attack on a correctional facility in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, reporting 16 killed and 35 wounded. STERNENKO (UA source) confirms this attack on a penitentiary facility, reporting 16 killed and 35 wounded. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces struck IK 99 (Correctional Colony 99) in Bilenke on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Operatsiya Z (RF source) provides video footage showing drone attacks supporting an offensive on Orikhiv. Воин DV (RF source) provides video footage of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade operators destroying an enemy PVD (command/observation post) in Aleksandrogrod, Chernyakhovskogo St., d.26 (1821-1) in the Vremivka direction. Two individuals from the 7th Airborne Division, Zaporizhzhia direction, appealed for Starlink and drones, indicating continued reliance on external support. STERNENKO (UA source) provides multiple photos showing the aftermath of the RF strike on the Bilenivska correctional colony, including damaged buildings and debris, confirming significant destruction. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports over 440 cases of human trafficking during the war, indicating ongoing internal security challenges, not directly military but relevant to population vulnerability. RBC-Ukraine reports 17 killed and 42 wounded from the strike on the correctional facility in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (UA Source) confirms RF aviation strike on Bilenkivska correctional colony, with video and photo evidence of significant damage to a brick building, consistent with explosion/shelling aftermath. General Prosecutor's Office reports 16 killed and 43 wounded in the aviation strike on Zaporizhzhia Oblast, initiating investigation. Images confirm significant damage to civilian structures, including a dormitory-like building, suggesting a non-military target. Voin DV (RF source) claims "Vostok" Group liberated settlement of Temirovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, supported by drone footage showing strikes on what appear to be civilian structures within a village. Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration posts photo messages mirroring Oleh Synehubov's message on Trump's statement. Сливочный каприз (RF source) posts photo and video messages claiming the liberation of Temirovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast on 29.07.25, with associated combat footage, consistent with earlier reports. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (UA source) posts photo messages announcing the opening of a memorial plaque in Zaporizhzhia for fallen defender Kostiantyn Opanasenko, indicating continued UA remembrance efforts. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports an air alert. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Kamyanske in the Orikhiv direction. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Zelenyy Hay, Zelene Pole, Piddubne, Oleksandrohrad, Shevchenko, Voskresenka and Temyrivka in the Novopavlivka direction. Ministry of Justice updated data on casualties from the RF strike on the colony in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. TASS reports RF MoD claim of liberation of Temirovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Военкор Котенок (RF source) confirms RF MoD claim of Temirovka liberation. ASTRA reports Ukraine's Ministry of Justice confirms 17 killed from the strike on the colony in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast air alert lifted. Сили оборони Півдня України posts video showing artillery from the 118th Brigade engaging Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting active defensive operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video appealing for drones and Starlink for the 7th Airborne Division in the Zaporizhzhia direction. TASS posts video of claimed liberation of Temirovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, showing drone footage of explosions near structures. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (UA source) posts video about veteran Oleksandr Trofymenko's military path and life after service, highlighting his return to Ukraine, service in the 38th Separate Marine Brigade, participation in operations including liberation of Urozhaine and Staromaiorske, drone operation, injury, and subsequent involvement in veteran support and patriotic education. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts photo messages about the educational project "Elite UFuture," which focuses on young people and IT skills. Военкор Котенок posts video showing aerial footage of military activities during the liberation of Temirovka in Zaporizhzhia direction, including explosions, military infrastructure, and a Russian flag raised over a damaged structure. UA Air Force issues "Attention!" alert for Zaporizhzhia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chernivtsi Oblast: Earthquake reported in Chernivtsi Oblast. This is a natural event, unlikely to have military impact beyond minor disruption or psychological effect. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia:
  • Internal Security & Cyber: Aeroflot systems crash, with hackers claiming destruction of entire IT system. Confirmed cancellation of seven Aeroflot flight pairs due to the IT system failure. Belarusian hackers claim responsibility. Peskov states Kremlin is aware. The RF General Prosecutor's Office opened a case. Experts estimate Aeroflot system recovery could take up to six months, or even a year if backup issues persist. Mobile internet restricted in Tyumen Oblast and Udmurtia. Governor of Bryansk Oblast, AV Bogomaz, reports another attempted enemy attack on the region overnight. Moscow police fine property owners 7000 rubles for not registering temporary residents. News from Moscow reports 41% of remote workers do not want to return to the office, indicating potential social resistance to mandates. TASS reports a criminal case for terrorism opened against two teenagers who set fire to a forest on instructions from Ukrainian curators. Sever.Realii reports on an individual named Kunis who was likely subjected to repressive measures, indicating continued internal crackdowns. TASS reports the Supreme Qualification Collegium of Judges announced a vacancy for the Chairman of the Supreme Court, indicating high-level internal political/judicial activity. TASS reports RF FSB prevented a terrorist attack against a high-ranking military official in Rostov-on-Don. Two Mayors (RF source) released video footage of the alleged FSB operation in Rostov-on-Don, showing apprehension of a suspect and discovery of explosives. Voenkor Kotonok (RF source) also reports on the FSB detention of a Central Asian citizen preparing a terrorist attack in Rostov-on-Don. TASS reports Minobrnauki (Ministry of Science and Higher Education) and Russian universities are developing recommendations for switching to the "Max" messenger, indicating further efforts to control internal communications. TASS reports temporary restriction of mobile internet in Sverdlovsk Oblast. Sever.Realii reports a deputy of the Leningrad Oblast Legislative Assembly was detained in St. Petersburg, possibly for a post about Alexei Navalny, indicating continued political repression. Moscow News (RF source) reports that banks are depriving Russians of access to their money for months, indicating growing economic instability or internal financial control issues. TASS reports an explosion of a gas cylinder in a correctional colony in Volgograd Oblast, resulting in 4 hospitalized prisoners, indicating internal infrastructure failures or negligence. TASS reports the condition of prisoners injured in the Volgograd colony explosion is satisfactory. TASS reports a military representative officer is accused of bribery in state defense order fulfillment, indicating ongoing corruption within the military-industrial complex. ASTRA reports 4 prisoners injured in a gas cylinder explosion in a correctional colony in Volgograd Oblast. Sever.Realii reports a resident of Arkhangelsk was sentenced to mandatory labor for a cross-shaped lamp at a party, indicating continued internal repression and religious intolerance. TASS reports that "Главпродукт" (Mainproduct) company's main legal entity is now state-owned through Rosimushchestvo (Federal Agency for State Property Management), indicating increased state control over key economic sectors. TASS reports delays to 8 flights in Sochi Airport. TASS reports Duma Deputy Butina attributes her conviction in Ukraine to "the agony of the Ukro-regime," reflecting RF propaganda efforts to discredit UA legal processes. TASS reports the Presidium of the Spiritual Administration of Muslims called on RF authorities to evaluate statements by writer Dina Rubina about killing residents of Gaza, indicating internal social and religious tensions. TASS (RF source) reports that wildfires in Los Angeles have caused the largest insured losses since the Fukushima disaster, potentially serving as a distraction from internal RF issues. ASTRA (RF source) posts photo messages stating Aeroflot IT system recovery could take up to a year, with losses exceeding 250 million rubles, confirming the severe impact of the cyberattack. Новости Москвы (RF source) claims Aeroflot has stabilized its flight program from 29 July, with 93% of flights operating, attempting to project a return to normalcy after the cyberattack. TASS (RF source) confirms Aeroflot resumed scheduled flights from 10:00 MSK 29 July, with 93% of flights operating, supporting the narrative of stability. TASS (RF source) reports the State Council of Crimea proposed banning public use of works by "foreign agents" or citizens of "unfriendly states," indicating further tightening of internal information and cultural controls. Филолог в zasade (RF source) reports fundraising efforts (224,693 rubles) for drone components ("birds") for reconnaissance units on the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating localized logistical support efforts within RF. ТАСС (RF source) reports the UK Supreme Court rejected an appeal by businessman Shvidler against his inclusion on the anti-Russian sanctions list, indicating continued Western legal pressure on Russian oligarchs. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) discusses the possibility of year-round conscription, indicating potential changes to RF mobilization policy. ТАСС (RF source) reports Putin appointed Denis Gonchar as the Russian Ambassador to Belgium, indicating routine diplomatic appointments. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts video confirming FSB prevented a terrorist attack in Rostov-on-Don against a high-ranking military official, showing apprehension of suspect and explosives. Colonelcassad confirms Aeroflot has managed the consequences of the cyberattack with 93% of flights operating. Moscow News (RF source) shows a video of a traffic fine for driving in the left lane in Russia, irrelevant to military operations. Kotsnews reports "another terrorist from Central Asia." Басурин о главном reports senators introduced three bills to the State Duma aimed at additional support for SVO participants and their families, indicating continued state support efforts. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) reports a "civil servant" found work for those who will be dismissed due to internet shutdown, indicating internal economic impacts from internet restrictions. Два майора promotes cryptocurrency donation bot for "special forces units," indicating continued localized fundraising for military support. Новости Москвы (RF source) reports that "Stolichki" pharmacy network has been hacked and stores are closed across Moscow, indicating a new successful cyberattack affecting civilian infrastructure within the RF capital, causing direct disruption to public services. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports that Aeroflot system failures have ended, indicating a recovery from the recent cyberattack. ASTRA posts photo messages of a Krasnoyarsk official suggesting remote workers losing jobs due to internet shutdowns should "go to the SVO (Special Military Operation)," highlighting social pressure for military recruitment and economic impacts of internet restrictions. Russian President Putin stated banks should not worsen mortgages for citizens by introducing additional fees, as reported by TASS. TASS reports that the General Prosecutor's Office sent a case to court regarding the embezzlement of 519 million rubles from the Russian Pension Fund, indicating ongoing internal financial integrity issues and counter-corruption efforts. ASTRA and Север.Реалии report that journalist Olga Komleva has been sentenced to 12 years in prison for "military fakes" and participation in an "extremist community," indicating continued internal repression and control over information. TASS reports two vacationers were injured by a rockfall in Kislovodsk, a natural event with no military relevance. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video on the hack of "Stolichki" and "Neopharm" pharmacy networks in Russia, confirming further cyberattacks impacting civilian services. Colonelcassad reports on a new educational program for SVO veterans in EAO. Новости Москвы posts a photo message about stress at work for Russians, attributing it to toxicity and leadership problems. TASS reports that Washington imposed the highest tariffs since the beginning of the 20th century. RF source Глеб Никитин posts a video of a soldier from the 47th Tank Division discussing his apartment being robbed while he was serving, emphasizing police efforts to catch the criminals and state support for military families. TASS reports that part of an office building collapsed in Yekaterinburg, with no reported casualties. ASTRA reports an office building partially collapsed in Yekaterinburg, citing TASS and the Interior Ministry, with no reported casualties. TASS reports a fire blocked 15 workers on the upper floors of a residential building under construction in northern Moscow, with 9 rescued and 5 more being rescued. ASTRA posts video of the Moscow construction site fire, showing thick black smoke billowing. Новости Москвы posts video of an alpaca being carried, irrelevant to military operations. TASS reports 12 people independently left an office building in Yekaterinburg where a three-story collapse occurred. TASS reports 21 employees evacuated from the office building in Yekaterinburg after collapse. TASS reports 24 people evacuated from neighboring premises after the building collapse in Yekaterinburg. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports large pharmacy networks in Moscow and St. Petersburg have been hacked. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the Moscow clinic network "Family Doctor" was subjected to a hacker attack, citing Russian media. TASS reports a man was detained in St. Petersburg for throwing a smoke bomb into a bank branch, with no casualties. "Почта России" (Russian Post) is experiencing a nationwide system failure, with its website being down. NEW: TASS reports no people were found under the rubble of the office building in Yekaterinburg. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Zoom fined 79.6 million rubles for non-compliance with Russian law on foreign internet entities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы reports a blogger, Areg Shchepikhin, kidnapped at Yaroslavsky station, will be held in pre-trial detention until 22 January 2026. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы posts a photo message proposing a monument to migrants at the location of "Big Clay No. 4" (likely a public art installation), indicating continued focus on internal social dynamics related to migration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Astrakhan: A section of a residential building collapsed from 1st to 5th floor due to a gas explosion. Authorities will purchase apartments for residents living under social contracts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov Oblast: RF PVO forces destroyed four Ukrainian UAVs overnight. Video shows grass burning and explosions in Rostov region. New reports indicate Russians complaining of unknown drone attacks in Rostov Oblast, with explosions heard in Salsk and Volgodonsk. РБК-Україна reports that the Rostov Oblast authorities confirmed a fire at a railway station. ASTRA reports a drone attack on a railway station in Salsk, Rostov Oblast, resulting in one fatality. This confirms a successful UA deep strike and civilian casualty on RF territory. Photo messages confirm large fire at Salsk railway station after UAV attack. TASS confirms disruption of contact network at Salsk station due to UAV debris, resulting in suspension of train movement. ASTRA reports a freight train caught fire at Salsk station. Video footage from Ukrainian sources (РБК-Україна) claims a traction substation is burning in Orlovsky, Rostov Oblast. This is a separate, potential deep strike targeting railway power infrastructure. ASTRA reports the head of Salsk district confirmed drone hits on two tank cars and a locomotive of a freight train at Salsk railway station. Operational Z (RF source) reports "half of migrants want to live by Sharia and are ready to fight for it," indicating growing internal security concerns related to migrant communities. Ukrainian source (Шеф Hayabusa) provides multiple videos and photos confirming large fires and smoke plumes at Salsk, Rostov Oblast, following UAV attacks. This visual evidence corroborates previous reports of significant damage to railway infrastructure, including a burning freight train and large, sustained fires. RZD reports at least 9 passenger trains delayed in Rostov Oblast due to UAV attack on Salsk railway station. STERNENKO (UA source) posts video confirming drone "debris" hit railway infrastructure in Rostov Oblast, stopping train movement through Salsk station. TASS confirms train movement through Salsk station has been resumed. ASTRA provides new photo and video evidence of continued fires at Salsk railway station and at the Orlovsky substation, corroborating previous reports. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts video confirming drone arrivals at Salsk railway station in Rostov Oblast, showing large fires. РБК-Україна (UA source) states the Center for Countering Disinformation confirmed the attack on Salsk, referring to the railway as "the artery of war," confirming UA intent to disrupt logistics. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports that a military resource base was burning in Rostov Oblast in addition to the railway station. Operatsiya Z (RF source) provides multiple video and photo messages of fires and explosions in Rostov Oblast, explicitly blaming Ukrainian drones for attacks on freight and passenger trains at Salsk station. Sever.Realii (RF source) confirms fire at a railway station in Rostov Oblast due to drone attacks. CyberBoroshno (UA Source) reports that Ukraine's Defense Forces attacked railway infrastructure in Salsk with UAVs, confirming a train was hit, possibly with military equipment. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports two RF sappers died during UAV demining in Salsk district, Rostov Oblast, following the attack. ASTRA also confirms two sapper deaths during demining in Salsk district, Rostov Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video showing the result of the UAV attack on the echelon with fuel tanks in Rostov Oblast, confirming significant fire and damage to railway infrastructure. STERNENKO posts video footage detailing the aftermath of the night UAV attack on the echelon with fuel tanks in Rostov Oblast, showing significant damage and fire, consistent with previous reports. STERNENKO (UA source) posts photo message implying RF is sending "messages" after the night drone attack in Rostov Oblast, likely referring to continued fires or propaganda. WarGonzo confirms two sappers died during drone demining in Rostov Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) posts video explicitly showing a nighttime UAV attack on Salsk, visually confirming explosions and fires at the railway station. The video's caption ("Just a bombastic video of a UAV attack on Salsk tonight") frames it as a significant success. RF source Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of a soldier walking along a dirt road with debris and an explosion occurring, captioned "Katsap sappers," which suggests losses for RF sappers. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video confirming the detention of an individual by FSB, who confesses to receiving bombs from Saint Petersburg to kill a soldier, providing a direct link to the Rostov-on-Don terror plot. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Leningrad Oblast: TASS reports one person died and three were injured due to the drone attack. TASS reports UAV attack danger declared by Governor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow: НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports the evacuation of the "Zvezdny" shopping center in Moscow. Colonelcassad denies seeking a high-level meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, addressing "fake news." Moscow News (RF source) publishes a video of two domestic cats cuddling, captioned "Today is the Day of Caring for Loved Ones," which is a soft propaganda message unrelated to military events. Moscow News (RF source) reports a Wallaby joey was born in Moscow Zoo, indicating continued soft propaganda. TASS reports the first flight from Pyongyang landed at Sheremetyevo Airport in Moscow, indicating renewed air travel between DPRK and RF. Два майора reports "Moscow" with no further details. Новости Москвы (RF source) posts video of a blogger walking 100,000 steps from Moscow center, irrelevant to military operations. Новости Москвы (RF source) reports that "Stolichki" pharmacy network has been hacked and stores are closed across Moscow, indicating a new cyberattack impacting essential civilian services. New video from Moscow shows urban development, irrelevant to military operations. TASS posts video of Putin smiling in reaction to Sberbank's "pay with a smile" facial recognition payment option, indicating a focus on technological advancement and control. Операция Z (RF source) reports on a hacker attack affecting large pharmacy chains in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Новости Москвы posts video of two kittens, irrelevant to military operations. TASS posts video showing 6 workers remain blocked on upper floors of residential building under construction in Northern Moscow due to fire. TASS reports the fire in the residential complex under construction in northern Moscow has been completely extinguished, with 32 workers rescued and 2 injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Bryansk Oblast: Governor reports "inhumane crimes against peaceful citizens" by the "Kyiv regime." New intelligence from ASTRA reports a military commissariat inspector in Bryansk Oblast persuaded a man to marry her and go to the "SVO," where he was killed. TASS (RF source) reports RF PVO forces shot down two Ukrainian UAVs over Smolensk Oblast, with no casualties or damage. This indicates continued UA deep strike attempts and RF air defense activity. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports 43 Ukrainian aircraft-type drones were intercepted and destroyed over Bryansk Oblast overnight. Voenkor Kotonok (RF source) reports a "massive" attack by Ukrainian UAVs on Russian regions overnight, with the main strike on Bryansk Oblast, indicating continued UA deep strike attempts. New video by Kotsnews shows individuals being apprehended, captioned "Teenage arsonists will be tried for terrorism," likely linked to the earlier report of Ukrainian-directed forest fires in Bryansk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Belgorod Oblast (RF): TASS reports a civilian was injured due to a UA drone attack on a car in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. Governor of Belgorod Oblast reports new "inhumane crimes against peaceful citizens" by the "Kyiv regime." Dva Mayora (RF source) posts photo messages from Belgorod Oblast Governor, likely reiterating previous claims of Ukrainian attacks on civilians. ASTRA reports a civilian killed due to a drone attack in Belgorod Oblast, as stated by the Governor. Two Mayors (RF source) displays photos of emergency response, likely from a drone attack in Belgorod, confirming damage and ongoing response efforts. NEW: TASS reports head of local administration Tatyana Ryabkina wounded after UA drone attack on service vehicle in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) / Kreminna Forests: TASS (RF source) claims RF forces gained control of ~10 hectares in Kreminna forests (LNR) in the last two days. TASS (RF source) claims RF forces, having success in Kreminna forests, began to encircle UA forces near Shypylivka and Hryhorivka. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim).
  • Nizhny Novgorod Oblast: Russian Governor Gleb Nikitin posts a video of a religious ceremony (baptism) in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, indicating a focus on social cohesion and religious values amidst the conflict. RF source Глеб Никитин posts video about a soldier whose apartment was robbed, emphasizing efforts to help military families. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Khabarovsk Krai: Khabarovsk Krai Police account posts a sequence of colored circles, likely a form of internal messaging or an error, with no apparent military relevance. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - No clear military context).
  • Kursk Oblast: New map from Two Mayors (RF source) shows areas of interest around Kultproshet village, likely indicating RF activity or control measures. ASTRA reports two individuals from Kursk were hospitalized after a drone attack, indicating a successful UA strike across the border. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of a fire at a gas station in Kursk Oblast, indicating a probable successful UA strike on RF territory. Два майора reports from the acting governor of Kursk Oblast, implying continued activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sverdlovsk Oblast: TASS reports temporary restriction of mobile internet. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volgograd Oblast: TASS reports gas cylinder explosion in a correctional colony, resulting in 4 injuries. This is a significant internal security incident. TASS reports a criminal case was opened in Volgograd following the death of a teenager, presumably due to the detonation of a WWII-era munition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Komandorsky Islands (RF): TASS reports US Lieutenant Colonel Jeffrey Fritz proposed buying Komandorsky Islands from Russia for $15 billion to counter China. This is a civilian-military proposal from a US academic source, not an high-level US government position, but it indicates a perceived strategic interest. TASS reports Sergey Mironov suggested Russia could buy back Alaska, reacting to US interest in Komandorsky Islands. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sevastopol (Occupied Crimea): Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UA source) posts video from Sevastopol showing a beach scene with civilians, but no military activity. This indicates a potential focus on the perceived normalcy of life in occupied Crimea despite the ongoing conflict. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - No direct military intelligence in content)
  • Kislovodsk: TASS reports two vacationers injured by a rockfall, indicating a natural incident with no military relevance. TASS reports a person may be under the rubble in Kislovodsk. TASS reports a criminal case was opened in Kislovodsk after a landslide at a sanatorium. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kaliningrad Oblast: Военкор Котенок posts photo messages showing a "standard picture" at the borders of Kaliningrad Oblast, accompanied by flight tracking data of civilian aircraft over Northern Europe. This likely implies continued RF monitoring of NATO air activity near its borders. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - Specific military activity unclear from the image itself.)
• Belarus:
  • Minsk: TASS reports an unidentified UAV fell in Minsk, no casualties. This is the first reported UAV incident in the capital. Belarusian MoD states the drone was destroyed by EW means. Dva Mayora and ASTRA (RF sources) also report the drone shot down over Minsk. Basurin (RF source) confirms unidentified drone destroyed by EW over Minsk, referencing Belarusian MoD. RBC-Ukraine (UA source) reports on the drone shot down over Minsk, highlighting it as the first such incident. WarGonzo (RF source) confirms a drone was shot down over Minsk for the first time. Север.Реалии (RF source) confirms Belarusian MoD statement regarding a drone flight over Minsk overnight, which was "suppressed," with no casualties. Tsapliyenko_Ukraine Fights (UA source) reports that it is still unknown whose drone fell in Minsk. Два майора claims the drone in Minsk was Ukrainian with Western European components and Ukrainian markings. TASS reports that the Belarusian Investigative Committee (SK) stated the UAV that fell in Minsk was equipped with TNT and a large number of damaging elements, indicating it was an offensive drone. Военкор Котенок (RF source) confirms the Belarusian SK statement regarding the TNT and damaging elements on the Minsk UAV. TASS reports that the Belarusian SK stated there are inscriptions in Ukrainian on the debris of the UAV that fell in Minsk, further strengthening the claim of Ukrainian origin. New video shows drone wreckage with police/military personnel, consistent with drone incident in Minsk. TASS posts video of the Belarusian Investigative Committee conducting an investigation into the drone incident in Minsk, showing debris consistent with a UAV and an inscription in Ukrainian. Два майора posts photo messages claiming an FP-1 Ukrainian strike drone was suppressed by EW in Minsk. Операция Z (RF source) posts video confirming drone with TNT shot down over Minsk, with Ukrainian markings and German parts. TASS (RF source) reports an expert from the field of unmanned aviation, Kuzyakin, stating the drone in Minsk was assembled in Ukraine and likely deviated due to a navigation error. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Regional:
  • United Kingdom: TASS reports the USA delivered nuclear weapons to Britain on an aircraft with transponders activated to signal Russia. Voenkor DV (RF source) reports USA could have transferred thermonuclear bombs to UK for the first time since 2008, indicating RF perception of NATO nuclear posture. Alex Parker Returns posts photo message about a Sharia court administrator vacancy in Manchester (UK), likely a propaganda piece. RBC-Ukraine reports that a billionaire close to Abramovich lost an appeal against sanctions in the UK. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Manhattan (US): New intelligence indicates an unknown assailant opened fire in Manhattan, killing five people, including a police officer, and injuring six, before dying by suicide. ASTRA reports 4 fatalities including a police officer. TASS provides video footage of the emergency response in Manhattan, confirming significant police and emergency services presence. TASS reports the likely target of the shooting in Manhattan was NFL employees. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • North Korea: TASS reports Russian schoolchildren wrote a letter to Kim Jong Un, thanking him for the opportunity to rest at a children's camp in the DPRK. TASS reports the first airline flight from Pyongyang landed in Moscow, further cementing DPRK-RF ties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • China: TASS reports 30 fatalities and 80,000 residents evacuated in Beijing due to heavy rains. TASS reports Shanghai police prevented the sale of a batch of fake "Labubu" worth $1.7 million, indicating a focus on internal economic crime. Politico considers EU's promise to buy $750 billion worth of energy from the US as fantasy, which TASS reports, indicating a focus on perceived Western economic issues. TASS provides video footage showing severe flooding and damage in Beijing due to heavy rains, confirming a significant natural disaster. TASS reports China will welcome improved relations between Russia and US, commenting on a possible Putin-Trump meeting in Beijing. ASTRA posts video showing the aftermath of severe flooding in Beijing, including submerged streets and vehicles, and ongoing rescue efforts. Colonelcassad reports on PL-16, a new stage in the development of Chinese air-to-air missiles, including an image of presentation slides detailing missile performance and fighter tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cambodia/Thailand: TASS reports Cambodia rejects Thailand's accusations of ceasefire violation on border territory, indicating continued regional tensions unrelated to Ukraine. Alex Parker Returns (RF Source) mentions Thailand blaming Cambodia for truce violation, framing it as a distant conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Syria: WarGonzo (RF source) posts photo messages with captions "Elections and blockade: what is happening in Syria," indicating continued RF focus on the region, but no direct impact on Ukraine conflict. Рыбарь posts an analysis piece titled "Sahel - the point of restarting Russian policy in Africa," indicating Russia's strategic interest in the Sahel region and its foreign policy intentions beyond Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Estonia: Estonian MFA summoned Russian Charge d'Affaires to protest violation of maritime borders by a Russian border vessel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Serbia: TASS reports the Vucic government is "hanging by a thread" according to Kneisl, indicating RF interest in political stability in the Balkans. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • US (Cape Canaveral): Roscosmos head Bakanaov arrived in US for first meeting with NASA heads in 8 years, planned for 31 July. He will meet Crew Dragon crew and attend Falcon/Crew Dragon launch. This signifies continued cooperation in space despite geopolitical tensions, but holds no direct military relevance to the Ukraine conflict. TASS reports Harvard is ready to pay $500M to settle disputes with the Trump administration, indicating political-economic developments in the US. RBC-Ukraine reports on Roscosmos and NASA meeting for the first time in 8 years. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Romania: TASS reports at least 7 people died due to floods in Romania, with video footage showing severe flooding and destruction in residential areas. NEW: TASS reports Romania denied decision to engage in military actions in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moldova: TASS reports Moldova intends to remove joint Russian-Moldovan "Moldovagaz" from August supply, indicating potential for new energy disputes and diplomatic tensions. TASS posts photo messages reporting that three opposition parties in Moldova have submitted documents to the Central Election Commission to register a bloc advocating for the restoration of relations with Russia. This indicates growing pro-Russian political sentiment and potential shifts in Moldova's geopolitical alignment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Spain: Fighterbomber (RF source) posts video of a Spanish F/A-18 performing aerial maneuvers over a populated coastal area, suggesting an airshow or public event, irrelevant to Ukraine conflict. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - No military relevance).
  • Germany: Tsapliyenko_Ukraine Fights (UA source) reports that 150,000 Ukrainians of conscription age receive social benefits of €1.3 billion annually in Germany, with the CSU party demanding a cessation of these payments, arguing that men should either work or join the Ukrainian army. Операция Z (RF source, citing Военкоры Русской Весны) posts photo messages stating "Work or Fight": Germany wants to deprive Ukrainian men of conscription age of benefits. This confirms German political pressure on Ukrainian refugees and highlights the ongoing debate about mobilization. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) posts photo message stating "Held a phone conversation with the General Inspector of the Bundeswehr, General Carsten Breuer," indicating continued high-level military cooperation between Ukraine and Germany. Воин DV reports that Ukraine's Ambassador to Germany stated Kyiv will receive 11 more IRIS-T complexes, confirming continued foreign military aid. Поддубный (RF source) posts about Germany's plan to acquire long-range drones, mentioning Helsing will produce AI drones for Ukraine. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts a political cartoon caption stating "Germany will more than double its military budget in four years." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • France: Colonelcassad reports that the French defense industry has been subjected to a serious cyberattack, primarily targeting Naval Group (a leading shipbuilding company) and indirectly affecting THALES, Dassault, and Safran (leading global avionics companies). NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports largest military data leak in history occurred in France. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Lithuania: Rybar (RF source) posts video messages of alleged "Gerbera" UAVs over Lithuania, indicating continued RF probing of NATO borders. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Japan: TASS reports that Japanese police have arrested the son of a Russian woman killed in Osaka. This is a civilian criminal case with no direct military relevance to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
  • Gaza: TASS posts video messages stating the number of fatalities due to Israeli actions in Gaza since October 2023 has exceeded 60,000, citing the enclave's health ministry. This is part of RF's broader information campaign to highlight perceived Western/Israeli atrocities and divert attention from Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Norway: TASS reports Norway's interim chargé d'affaires was summoned to the RF Foreign Ministry and handed a protest note over restrictions on Russian fishing vessels. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Azerbaijan: NEW: Rybar reports "Azerbaijan arms the Armed Forces of Ukraine," indicating a potential new source of military support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• International Developments:
  • RBC-Ukraine reports that maximum synchronization of sanctions against the Russian Federation should occur in the coming weeks, citing Sibiga. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • TASS reports Zelenskyy intends to dismiss his office head Andriy Yermak, citing Shariy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zelenskiy / Official posts photo messages of a phone conversation with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, thanking Denmark for strong support. RBC-Ukraine reports Zelenskyy stated Denmark, which holds the EU presidency, supported the NABU bill. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Kyiv: Strong thunderstorms and heavy rain forecasted for the rest of the day. This could impact aerial reconnaissance, drone operations, and ground mobility within the city, potentially limiting visibility for both offensive and defensive actions. It has also caused power outages for nearly 30,000 families, which could complicate recovery efforts from missile strikes. RBC-Ukraine provides photo messages showing widespread flooding, fallen trees, and power outages across Ukraine due to bad weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Rostov Oblast (RF): Fire at a railway station confirmed. This will impact logistics and potentially ground operations if it affects critical supply lines. Confirmed fire at Salsk railway station and suspension of train movement will severely impact RF railway logistics in the short term. New reports of a traction substation burning in Orlovsky, Rostov Oblast, would further exacerbate logistical challenges for railway operations. Extensive fires and smoke plumes observed in Salsk, Rostov Oblast, indicate severe air quality degradation and reduced visibility in the immediate vicinity, potentially hindering emergency response efforts and local logistics. Significant delays to passenger trains due to the Salsk railway station incident will cause widespread disruption to civilian transport in the region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Chernivtsi Oblast: Reported earthquake, which may cause localized disruption but is unlikely to have direct military impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• China (Beijing): Heavy rains and flooding causing significant casualties and evacuations will divert internal resources and attention, though unlikely to impact the Ukraine conflict directly. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Romania: Severe flooding resulting in fatalities will divert internal resources and attention in a NATO-bordering state. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• US (Los Angeles): TASS (RF source) reports wildfires in Los Angeles causing major insured losses, indicating significant environmental impact in a key Western nation, likely used for distraction by RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kislovodsk: TASS reports two vacationers injured by a rockfall, indicating a natural incident with no military relevance. TASS reports a person may be under rubble from the rockfall. TASS reports a criminal case opened after a landslide at a sanatorium. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kursk Oblast (RF): Fire observed at a gas station, likely a result of UA strike, indicating localized environmental impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Yekaterinburg (RF): Building collapse reported, affecting infrastructure but not directly military. TASS reports a service dog is being used to search the rubble of the collapsed office building in Yekaterinburg. TASS reports video of the collapsed building showing debris. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Moscow (RF): Fire at a construction site in northern Moscow, affecting local infrastructure and emergency services. TASS reports the fire in the residential complex under construction in northern Moscow was likely caused by careless handling of fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Astrakhan (RF): A section of a residential building collapsed due to a gas explosion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF Force Dispositions:
  • Air Assets: Multiple strategic bombers (6x Tu-95MS, 2x Tu-160 completing pre-launch maneuvers) and MiG-31K aircraft (3x airborne) currently posing a nationwide missile threat. Dozens of strike drones (Shaheds) also in the air. Tactical aviation active in Eastern and North-Eastern directions, launching guided aerial bombs (KABs) on Sumy Oblast and border of Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk, vectoring to southern Dnipropetrovsk. RF aviation conducted airstrikes in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts. RF MoD claims "complex strike" on five oblasts and Kinzhal missile strike on military airfield and ammunition depot. A group of enemy strike UAVs inbound from Belgorod Oblast to Kharkiv Oblast. RF is launching KABs towards Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. UA Air Force reports KABs inbound for Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Sumy, and Donetsk Oblasts. UA Air Force reports a group of Shahed drones in central Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. Mykolaivskiy Vanok reports 4 Moped-type UAVs flying past Parutyne towards Halitsynove, and 5 Moped-type UAVs flying towards Odesa then Pivdennyi and further north. Colonelcassad reports a kinetic interception of a heavy hexacopter R-18 "Vampire" UA drone by an "Yolka" air defense drone. Операция Z (citing Russkaya Vesna) reports Ukraine will be attacked by jet Shaheds soon. TASS confirms RF is testing new optical laser drone destruction schemes. New intelligence from TASS reports Russian MoD claims strike drones of the "West" group destroyed a concentration of Ukrainian militants in Luhansk People's Republic (LNR), confirming continued precision strike capabilities against personnel. "Shaheds" confirmed in eastern Kharkiv Oblast moving west, and in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast moving towards Pavlohrad. Threat of strike UAVs to Sloviansk. New enemy reconnaissance UAVs confirmed active in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv Oblasts; UA Air Force has deployed assets to engage. Colonelcassad (RF source) provides video footage showing reconnaissance efforts and targeting of Ukrainian logistics by elements of the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, "Vostok" Group, operating in the South Donetsk direction, claiming they are disrupting Ukrainian logistics. This indicates continued RF ground force emphasis on reconnaissance and targeting of UA logistical lines. RF MoD claims 74 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight. Fighterbomber (RF source) provides video from a military aircraft cockpit, indicating continued aerial sorties. Операция Z (RF source) confirms RF MoD claim of 74 drones shot down over 5 regions. RF attacked with two ballistic missiles and 37 drones overnight. RF source Операция Z confirms drone attacks on freight and passenger trains at Salsk station, Rostov Oblast, by "Ukrainian drones." Fighterbomber (RF source) posts a photo message of RF aircraft flying, likely providing visual support for combat operations or demonstrating capability. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) provides thermal imaging video from a drone, showing a strike on a forested area in the Chasiv Yar direction, indicating active RF drone reconnaissance and strike capabilities. Kotsnews (RF source) mentions "confrontation in orbit," suggesting RF interest in space-based assets or counter-space capabilities. Colonelcassad (RF source) posted a video claiming a Rosgvardia soldier destroyed an enemy drone from a moving vehicle with small arms fire, indicating RF counter-drone tactics. DNR People's Militia (RF source) posts video showing drone operations, including destroying enemy drones mid-air, indicating continued RF drone and counter-drone capabilities. DNR People's Militia (RF source) posts video showing drone delivering propaganda leaflets to UA positions, indicating continued psy-ops capability. Basurin (RF source) shows Tornado-S MLRS systems firing, claiming destruction of UA combat vehicles, an ammunition depot, a UAV command post, and manpower of AFU in Kharkiv direction. TASS reports RF forces hit a temporary deployment point of AFU with Geran-2 UAVs in Zinovo, Sumy Oblast, confirming active offensive UAV use. Voenkor Kotonok (RF source) provides video of "Geran" drones striking targets in Sumy direction, with visuals of damage to a multi-story building, consistent with an industrial or military facility. Rybar posts a video of a ZALA reconnaissance and strike UAV engaging a maritime target, likely a disabled vessel, demonstrating continued maritime drone strike capability. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) provides video showing Tornado-S MLRS strikes in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating active use of heavy MLRS. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) posts photos and video showing drone footage of targets and strikes, likely FPV operations, including QR code for donations for airborne troops, indicating active air support elements. Fighterbomber (RF source) posts video of a military jet performing maneuvers, implying continued air force activity. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports continued activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeast direction. Воин DV (RF source) posts video showing high-precision drone strikes by "AIRNOMADS" operators on enemy armored vehicles, including a tank, confirming active and effective RF drone strike capabilities against ground targets. Rybar (RF source) posts video of alleged "Gerbera" UAVs over Lithuania, confirming RF's capability for aerial probing near NATO borders. MoD Russia posts video of drone pilots operating FPV drones with explosives, targeting dug-in positions or vehicles in a wooded area. ASTRA posts photo messages showing a large crater and debris, with a caption about 100 Russian aviation bombs "accidentally descended" on Russian regions and occupied territories of Ukraine in 2025. This suggests RF aviation is active but experiencing significant technical failures. RF source Fighterbomber reports Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) "bursts into the news," indicating a potential release of new intelligence or information operation. RF source Воин DV posts video showing aerial perspective of military operations, likely artillery or drone strikes against entrenched positions. Colonelcassad posts video of "Kinzhal" missile strikes on Kyiv from July 21st, showing large explosion and fire, claiming damage to a military-industrial enterprise. MoD Russia posts video of servicemen from the 51st Guards Army training against enemy FPV drones in a rear area. Colonelcassad posts video of a "Molniya" (Lightning) drone striking an enemy assault group. NEW: TASS posts a video showing a Lancet UAV successfully identifying and striking three enemy artillery positions, including a 155mm artillery piece. This confirms RF's continued effective use of Lancet loitering munitions against UA artillery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a video with a military-style soundtrack and on-screen text "Got into the wrong area!", showing drone footage of targets and strikes. This visually confirms RF's active drone operations and likely targeted strikes against enemy positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Forces: Persistent offensive pressure on the Pokrovsk (Donetsk) axis, including advances in Dimitrov (Myrnohrad), Rodinskoye, and Krasnolimansky directions. Confirmed claims of liberation of Boykivka and Belhiyka by RF MoD and Kotsnews. Continued attempts to control island zone in the Dnieper delta (Kherson). Artillery of 1198th Motorized Rifle Regiment (35th Army Group "Vostok") active in South Donetsk direction. Engaged in 9 assaults on Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. Heavy assaults continue near Plavni and Stepnohirsk on the Kamenskoye sector of Zaporizhzhia. RF sources show "Zaba" drone operators conducting combat work. Colonelcassad reports assault groups advancing in forests near Melovoye, Kharkiv Oblast. Kadyrov's "Zapad-AKHMAT" battalion active near Vovchansk. Over 800 RF strikes in 24 hours in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Colonelcassad (Boris Rozhin) discusses Russian forces' success in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), claiming RF DRGs have entered the city and have fire control over a key supply road to Rodinskoye. Video from Два майора highlights naval infantry training, indicating continued focus on amphibious capabilities. Colonelcassad (RF source) provides video footage showing reconnaissance efforts and targeting of Ukrainian logistics by elements of the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (Vostok Group) in the South Donetsk direction, confirming their continued capability for tactical reconnaissance and precision strikes against logistics. Russian forces attacked a penitentiary facility in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and used FPV drones and KABs against civilian communities in Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating continued direct targeting of both civilian infrastructure and population centers with ground-based assets. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) confirms RF forces struck Correctional Colony 99 in Bilenke. TASS (RF source) claims control of ~10 hectares in Kreminna forests (LNR) and are attempting to encircle UA forces near Shypylivka and Hryhorivka, indicating localized ground gains. Operatsiya Z (RF source) video indicates ground forces are supported by drones in offensive operations in Zaporizhzhia region, confirming combined arms tactics. Воин DV (RF source) video showing 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade operators destroying an enemy PVD (command/observation post) in the Vremivka direction demonstrates effective tactical ground operations supported by drones. A RF serviceman, identified as Stanislav Kochev (Hero of Russia), provides propaganda material describing combat with "Leopards" and "Bredli" (Bradleys) and expressing confidence in RF weaponry. RF sources ([Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition]) released video footage of claimed combat in Maliivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, highlighting effective RF tactical operations and use of captured equipment, indicating RF presence and activity in the area. DNR People's Militia (RF source) claims 3 Ukrainian National Guard soldiers surrendered in the Dimitrov (Myrnohrad) area, likely related to RF advances on the Pokrovsk axis. Basurin (RF source) shows Tornado-S MLRS systems firing, specifically TOS-1A "Solntsepyok," which is designed for thermobaric rockets against fortified positions. Two Mayors (RF source) release video of tests of new Russian armored vehicles (Spartak, Akhmat, Phoenix, Linza, Tigr), showcasing continued investment in ground vehicle modernization. Voin DV (RF source) video shows 40th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade assault unit training, indicating continued preparation for offensive ground operations. Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) provides aerial thermal footage of a tactical vehicle, likely a BTR, indicating continued RF reconnaissance and targeting of UA ground assets. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video titled "The best job in the world!", showing RF soldiers in urban combat environments with destroyed buildings and vehicles, indicating continued offensive operations and presence in heavily contested areas. Voin DV (RF source) claims "Vostok" Group liberated settlement of Temirovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, supported by drone footage showing strikes on what appear to be civilian structures within a village. Basurin (RF source) presents a historical photo and caption about Peter I and the Russian navy, indirectly indicating RF's continued naval aspirations and capabilities. Операция Z (RF source, citing Военкоры Русской Весны) video released earlier claims Russian forces liberated Maliivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, due to "mercenaries fleeing without a fight," showing ground combat and drone activity. Сливочный каприз (RF source) map and video on Temirovka liberation confirms RF ground offensive capabilities in Zaporizhzhia. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that two assault groups from the 63rd Mechanized Brigade attacked an enemy dugout near Torske, capturing two Russian mercenaries after throwing grenades. Butusov Plus (UA source) shows a burning military vehicle with Russian audio, indicating a recent engagement. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RF assaults repelled in multiple directions including South Slobozhansky, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and Kherson, confirming persistent RF ground offensive capabilities. TASS reports RF MoD claims liberation of Temirovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Novoukrainka in Donetsk People's Republic. Операция Z (RF source) confirms liberation of Temirovka and Novoukrainka, providing associated photo messages, some of which appear to be battle maps or tactical diagrams, rather than direct combat footage. Военкор Котенок (RF source) confirms liberation of Novoukrainka and Temirovka. Два майора (RF source) posts photo message titled "Russian Ministry of Defense," which includes a map showing claimed Russian advances on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, consistent with previous reports of gains in this area. This reinforces the narrative of successful ground operations and territorial acquisition. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts video of aftermath of an artillery strike or explosion in a wooded area, showing destroyed trench/dugout position and potential human remains. Операция Z posts video providing drone footage of combat operations in the Pokrovsk direction, including successful strikes against enemy vehicles and armored personnel carriers. Сили оборони Півдня України posts video showcasing a Ukrainian 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzer engaging targets, demonstrating continued RF engagement against UA artillery. Старше Эдды posts video showing claimed combat in the Sumy direction, with drone footage of ground operations and explosions, indicating continued enemy activity in the area. Два майора posts video from the Sumy direction, showing ground operations and drone footage. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of two Ukrainian infantrymen attacking and capturing Russian assault troops. RF source БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС posts video of Russian forces performing combat coordination on motorcycles, likely a training exercise, but highlights RF mobility in rural areas. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Phoenix unit destroying enemy motorcyclists on Kostiantynivka direction, indicating RF's use of motorcycles in attempts to breach defenses. Kotsnews reports that the Russian army liberated Temirovka. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video showing evacuation under continuous fire, with a military vehicle displaying a "300" casualty marker. NEW: Colonelcassad posts video of a Lancet loitering munition striking a UA engineering vehicle of the 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade near Pokrovskoe. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Операция Z reports Russian army entered Kolodezi, advancing towards Lyman. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) NEW: Воин DV posts video footage from a drone or aerial surveillance platform, showing an overhead view of a military engagement with multiple individuals, some appearing incapacitated. Indicates effective RF engagement on ground targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Control Measures:
  • Ukraine-wide Air Alert: Nationwide missile danger due to MiG-31K launch. New air raid alerts for Kyiv and several oblasts due to ballistic missile threat. An "arrival" has been reported in Kyiv. Air raid alert lifted as of 05:53Z. New ballistic missile threat from northeast direction reported by UA Air Force. NEW: UA Air Force issued "Attention!" alert (no specific region). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Regional Air Alerts: Ongoing air raid alerts and PPO activity in Kyiv, Khmelnytska, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Sumy, Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, and Belgorod Oblasts (RF). Kharkiv area under UAV alert. Zaporizhzhia under "UVA" (uncrewed aerial vehicle) alert. Mykolaiv south also under UAV threat. Southern Chernih region under UAV alert. Ballistic threat to Pryluky (Poltava Oblast) confirmed by RF sources reporting an explosion there. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs confirmed in Sumy and Kharkiv. UA Air Force reports enemy UAVs from Kursk Oblast inbound to Sumy Oblast and from Belgorod Oblast inbound to Northern Kharkiv Oblast. UA Air Force reports a group of Shahed drones in central Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. Alex Parker Returns reports Donetsk under massive strike, with power outages. Mash na Donbasse reports explosions in Donetsk, power outages, and enemy drones working with PVO. TASS and ASTRA reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure at Kaluga Airport. Mykolaivskiy Vanok reports 4 Moped-type UAVs flying past Parutyne towards Halitsynove, and 5 Moped-type UAVs flying towards Odesa then Pivdennyi and further north. РБК-Україна reports an alert in Odesa Oblast due to drone threat. New enemy UAV detected in Makariv region, Kyiv Oblast. "Shaheds" confirmed inbound to western Kharkiv Oblast and eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Pavlohrad direction). Explosions confirmed in Izyum. Threat of strike UAVs to Sloviansk. TASS (RF source) reports RF PVO forces shot down two Ukrainian UAVs over Smolensk Oblast, with no casualties or damage. This indicates RF continues to implement air defense control measures in depth. RF MoD claims 74 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight, indicating a significant, multi-regional RF air defense response. Bryansk Oblast Governor reports an enemy attack attempt, indicating ongoing regional security measures. Colonelcassad reports 43 UA drones shot down over Bryansk Oblast. UA Air Force reports KABs incoming to Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued air threat control measures. New high-speed target detected in Sumy Oblast, southwest course, indicates adaptive targeting or flight paths. UA Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs northeast of Chernihiv. UA Air Force issues "Attention!" alert, indicating a new air threat. UA Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. UA Air Force reports enemy UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast. UA Air Force reports aviation munitions threat for Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UA Air Force issued a new "Attention!" alert. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issued a new air alert. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Internal Internet/Communication Restrictions: Mobile internet restricted in Tyumen Oblast and Udmurtia for security. Kemerovo region government to move all working chats to "Max" messenger. TASS reports Minobrnauki and Russian universities are developing recommendations for switching to the "Max" messenger, suggesting centralized control over internal communications. TASS reports temporary restriction of mobile internet in Sverdlovsk Oblast. TASS (RF source) reports State Council of Crimea proposed banning public use of works by "foreign agents" or citizens of "unfriendly states," tightening information control. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) discussing year-round conscription suggests changes in military control measures. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) implies state control over internet access by reporting jobs for those dismissed due to internet shutdown, reinforcing internal control measures. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports hackers have taken down the "Почта России" (Russian Post) website, indicating a new widespread disruption to a key civilian service within Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Federal Level (Logistics): TASS reports the Russian government has restricted gasoline exports for oil product manufacturers until August 31. TASS reports the Russian government has decided to close 20 checkpoints on the border with Ukraine starting August 1. TASS reports Mironov (a Russian official) called for airline companies to reduce ticket refund times from 10 days to 1-2 days, indicating a focus on consumer protection and potentially streamlining financial processes after the Aeroflot incident. TASS reports that "Главпродукт" (Mainproduct) company's main legal entity is now state-owned through Rosimushchestvo (Federal Agency for State Property Management), indicating strategic control over food supply. RBC-Ukraine reports the NBU proposes to gradually withdraw 10 kopeck coins from circulation starting October 1, 2025. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports the NBU's proposal to withdraw 10 kopeck coins. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Astrakhan: The RF Governor of Astrakhan has declared a state of emergency at the site of the partial building collapse. Authorities will also purchase apartments for residents affected by the collapse who lived there under social contracts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow: НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports the evacuation of the "Zvezdny" shopping center in Moscow. Moscow police implementing fines for landlords not registering temporary residents, indicates tightening internal controls for population movement/monitoring. Новости Москвы (RF source) reports that "Stolichki" pharmacy network has been hacked and stores are closed across Moscow, indicating a new cyberattack impacting civilian infrastructure within the RF capital, causing direct disruption to public services and necessitating new security control measures. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports that Aeroflot system failures have ended, indicating a return to normalcy for air travel. Russian President Putin stated banks should not worsen mortgages for citizens by introducing additional fees, as reported by TASS. This indicates a control measure on the financial sector to mitigate public discontent and maintain economic stability. TASS posts video of Putin discussing facial recognition payment systems, indicating a focus on implementing advanced surveillance and financial control technologies within Russia. TASS reports 15 workers were blocked on the upper floors of a residential building under construction in northern Moscow due to a fire, and 9 have been rescued, with 5 more still being rescued. TASS reports the fire in the residential complex under construction in northern Moscow has been completely extinguished, with 32 workers rescued and 2 injured. NEW: Новости Москвы reports blogger Areg Shchepikhin will be held in pre-trial detention until 22 January 2026. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov Oblast (RF): New reports indicate Russians complaining of unknown drone attacks in Rostov Oblast, with explosions heard in Salsk and Volgodonsk, leading to unspecified control measures. ASTRA reports a drone attack on a railway station in Salsk, Rostov Oblast, resulting in one fatality. This will require new control measures for logistics and security. RF railway services (RZD) confirm suspension of train movement through Salsk station due to drone debris damaging contact network, and a freight train fire. This necessitates immediate and substantial control measures impacting railway logistics. Confirmation of fire at a traction substation in Orlovsky, Rostov Oblast, will likely necessitate additional railway control measures and repairs. ASTRA reports passengers of a train at Salsk station during the UAV attack were returned to the train, indicating RF efforts to normalize operations quickly. Visual confirmation of extensive fires at Salsk railway station (Шеф Hayabusa) indicates a significant and ongoing disruption to rail traffic, necessitating continued and perhaps expanded control measures for logistics in the region. RZD confirms at least 9 passenger trains delayed due to Salsk attack, highlighting widespread logistical disruption for civilian and potentially military transport. TASS confirms train movement through Salsk station has been resumed, indicating successful RF emergency response and repair efforts. RF FSB prevented a terrorist attack against a high-ranking military official in Rostov-on-Don, indicating ongoing internal counter-terrorism measures. Russian authorities will likely implement increased security protocols around railway infrastructure following the successful UAV attack and sapper deaths. New video from ASTRA shows drone wreckage with police/military personnel, consistent with the FSB operation in Rostov-on-Don. Colonelcassad posts video of the FSB operation in Rostov-on-Don, detailing the apprehension and discovery of explosives including TNT. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Leningrad Oblast (RF): TASS reports a UAV attack danger declared by the governor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kyiv (Internal Security): Security measures, including potential document checks, are underway in Desnyanskyi district, involving SBU and National Police, indicating heightened internal security posture. A suspicious object was found at the "Lybidska" metro station in Kyiv, but it has since reopened. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) KMVA reports that the local authorities have been criticized for "profanation" regarding Kyiv's security decisions, indicating internal issues with effective control measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Belarus (Minsk): Belarusian MoD confirms the destruction of an unidentified UAV over Minsk using EW means, indicating active airspace control and counter-drone measures. RBC-Ukraine's report highlights this as the first such incident in Minsk, suggesting a new security challenge for Belarus. Север.Реалии (RF source) confirms Belarusian MoD's statement on drone "suppression" over Minsk, indicating ongoing air defense control measures. Два майора claims the drone in Minsk was Ukrainian with Western European components and Ukrainian markings. TASS reports the Belarusian Investigative Committee stated the UAV that fell in Minsk was equipped with TNT and damaging elements. This indicates strict control measures around the drone incident and an official determination of its offensive nature. TASS reports the Belarusian SK stated inscriptions in Ukrainian were found on the UAV debris, reinforcing internal control measures regarding narrative and attribution. New video from ASTRA shows drone wreckage with police/military personnel, consistent with the Minsk drone incident. TASS posts video of the Belarusian Investigative Committee conducting an investigation into the drone incident in Minsk, showing debris consistent with a UAV and an inscription in Ukrainian. Два майора posts photo messages claiming an FP-1 Ukrainian strike drone was suppressed by EW in Minsk. TASS (RF source) reports an expert stating the Minsk drone was Ukrainian, likely due to a navigation error, reinforcing attribution. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moldova: TASS reports Moldova intends to remove joint Russian-Moldovan "Moldovagaz" from August supply, signaling a control measure over energy supplies. TASS posts photo messages reporting that three opposition parties in Moldova have submitted documents to the Central Election Commission to register a bloc advocating for the restoration of relations with Russia. This indicates a domestic political development that could influence Moldova's future foreign policy and energy decisions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukraine (Internal Security/Border Control): The General Prosecutor's Office reports an attorney in Lviv Oblast will be tried for organizing illegal border crossings and threatening to kill a judge, indicating UA internal security and anti-corruption measures. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports that officials from a municipal heating utility and Bucha City Council housing department were exposed for embezzling over 13 million UAH. This indicates ongoing internal anti-corruption measures. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports SBU warning about Russians recruiting teenagers online for sabotage, implying internal security measures. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the detention of leadership and doctors of a Kyiv medical institution for accepting money to "arrange" disabilities, indicating internal security and anti-corruption measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The Office of the Prosecutor General reports uncovering a scheme by officials in Kyiv Oblast to seize state land worth over 22 million UAH. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukraine (Government): TASS reports that the Rada Committee could not discuss Zelensky's bill on NABU due to lack of quorum. RBC-Україна posts a photo message reporting on the Kremlin's response to Trump's statement about shortening the 50-day deadline. This indicates ongoing diplomatic communication and control measures around external political influence. TASS reports that the Verkhovna Rada Committee, after a second attempt, gathered a quorum and voted for Zelenskyy's bill on NABU and SAP, indicating progress in addressing anti-corruption legislation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the EU stopped funding Ukraine due to the "old" law on NABU and SAP, and Ukraine could lose $60 billion if the new law is not passed. This is a critical financial control measure from the EU. RBC-Україна reports Fedorov talked about how the presidential draft law on NABU and SAP was prepared, indicating ongoing government efforts related to anti-corruption. Coordination Staff for POWs posts multiple photo messages from a meeting with families of the 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, indicating ongoing control measures to address soldier welfare. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy's draft law on NABU will be considered by the Rada Committee today, July 29. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports Zelenskyy stated Denmark, which holds the EU presidency, supported the NABU bill, indicating continued diplomatic efforts to ensure key legislation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Norway: TASS reports Norway's interim chargé d'affaires was summoned to the RF Foreign Ministry and handed a protest note over restrictions on Russian fishing vessels. This indicates a diplomatic control measure by RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Yekaterinburg (RF): TASS reports 12 people independently left an office building where a three-story collapse occurred. TASS reports 21 employees evacuated from the office building after collapse. TASS reports 24 people evacuated from neighboring premises after the building collapse. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) This indicates a significant emergency response requiring control measures.
  • Moscow (RF): TASS reports 6 workers remain blocked on upper floors of residential building under construction in Northern Moscow due to fire. This indicates a civilian emergency and control measures. TASS reports the fire in the residential complex under construction in northern Moscow has been completely extinguished, with 32 workers rescued and 2 injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Friendly Forces (Training): NEW: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UA Airborne Assault Forces) posts photo messages of night training exercises, describing them as "intensive training, maximally close to combat conditions," indicating continued high-level combat readiness and adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukraine (Defense Industry): NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video of President Zelenskyy visiting a Ukrainian defense enterprise in Kyiv Oblast producing electronics and sensitive components for missiles, drones, and secure communication, with over 80% of production supporting defense. This indicates continued Ukrainian efforts to bolster domestic defense production and reduce reliance on external supplies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Air/Missile/UAV: Demonstrated capability for large-scale, coordinated missile and drone strikes across Ukraine's depth (2 ballistic missiles and 37 drones overnight). Confirmed successful hits in Kyiv, Starokostiantyniv, and the "Zvezda" ammunition plant in Shostka. Continued, active air defense against UA drones within Russia (Rostov, Chernih, Smolensk, Bryansk - 43 drones shot down). Expanding drone production and improving drone intelligence and EW resistance. TASS confirms RF is testing new optical laser drone destruction schemes. New intelligence from TASS reports Russian MoD claims strike drones of the "West" group destroyed a concentration of Ukrainian militants in Luhansk People's Republic (LNR), confirming continued precision strike capabilities against personnel. Continued use of "Shahed" drones against Kharkiv Oblast and now eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Pavlohrad). The targeting of railway contact networks/substations indicates a tactical adaptation to disrupt UA deep strikes against RF logistics. RF claims shooting down 74 Ukrainian UAVs overnight, including 43 over Bryansk Oblast, indicating an adaptation to a higher volume of UA drone attacks on RF territory and improved air defense response. RF is increasingly relying on multiple waves of mixed drone and ballistic missile attacks to overwhelm air defenses, as evidenced by the 2 ballistic missile and 37 drone attack overnight. RF has intensified propaganda efforts surrounding UAV attacks on its territory, indicating an adaptation in information warfare to address growing domestic concerns. Colonelcassad (RF source) showcasing a Rosgvardia soldier shooting down a drone from a moving vehicle suggests tactical adaptation to counter low-altitude, agile UAV threats. TASS reports RF forces struck a temporary deployment point of AFU with Geran-2 UAVs in Zinovo, Sumy Oblast, indicating continued tactical use of UAVs for precision strikes in border regions. Voenkor Kotonok's video of "Geran" strikes confirms tactical adaptation in long-range drone employment. Belarusian MoD reports the destruction of an unidentified UAV over Minsk by EW means, confirming Belarusian counter-UAV capability. Rybar (RF source) video shows a ZALA reconnaissance and strike UAV successfully engaging a maritime target, confirming RF's capability for maritime drone operations. Operatsiya Z (RF source) video shows drone strike on military vehicle in Chernihiv direction, demonstrating aerial strike capability. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) video of Tornado-S MLRS strikes highlights tactical adaptation in fire support, possibly using fewer systems for greater maneuverability. Военкор Котенок (RF source) attributing Kamenskoye strike to "Iskander" confirms tactical adaptation in missile deployment against urban areas. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports continued activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeast direction. Воин DV (RF source) video of high-precision drone strikes demonstrates tactical adaptation for effective precision targeting of armored vehicles. Rybar (RF source) video of alleged "Gerbera" UAVs over Lithuania indicates an adaptation in aerial reconnaissance/probing tactics near NATO borders. TASS reports that the Belarusian Investigative Committee stated the UAV that fell in Minsk was equipped with TNT and damaging elements and had Ukrainian inscriptions on its debris, confirming RF/Belarusian assessment of the offensive capabilities of the drone. TASS reports Belarusian SK stated inscriptions in Ukrainian were found on the UAV debris, indicating RF/Belarusian capability to perform forensic analysis and attribute the drone. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts video showing drone operations, including active targeting and strikes, implying continued RF aerial capabilities. Операция Z posts video providing drone footage of combat operations in the Pokrovsk direction, including successful strikes against enemy vehicles and armored personnel carriers. Старше Эдды posts video showing claimed combat operations in the Sumy direction, including ground force activity and drone footage, indicating continued RF aerial reconnaissance and combat operations. Два майора posts video from the Sumy direction showing RF ground operations and drone footage, consistent with continued RF aerial capabilities. MoD Russia posts video of FPV drone deployment with explosives, targeting dug-in positions or vehicles in a wooded area. ASTRA posts photo messages showing a large crater and debris, with a caption about 100 Russian aviation bombs "accidentally descended" on Russian regions and occupied territories of Ukraine in 2025. This suggests RF aviation is active but experiencing significant technical failures. TASS posts video of claimed liberation of Temirovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, showing drone footage of explosions near structures, indicating continued air-to-ground strike capability. Colonelcassad posts video of drone footage from the Donbas showing military operations including aerial reconnaissance and targeting, indicating continued RF aerial capabilities for ISR and combat. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts drone reconnaissance footage from the southwest DND region, focusing on a settlement and showing a fire/explosion event, confirming RF's capability for aerial reconnaissance and strike in populated areas. Военкор Котенок posts photo message from Kaliningrad borders with flight tracking, indicating RF's capability to monitor air traffic near borders. Colonelcassad posts video of a "Molniya" (Lightning) drone striking an enemy assault group. MoD Russia posts video of servicemen from the 51st Guards Army training against enemy FPV drones in a rear area. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video from Sumy, claiming the city is a testing ground for Russia's "Italmas" UAVs, showing an unidentified delta-wing drone in flight, implying new drone capabilities. NEW: TASS posts a video showing a Lancet UAV successfully identifying and striking three enemy artillery positions, including a 155mm artillery piece. This confirms RF's continued effective use of Lancet loitering munitions against UA artillery targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a video showing drone footage of targets and strikes, likely FPV operations, visually confirming RF's active drone operations and likely targeted strikes against enemy positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Forces: Persistent offensive pressure on the Pokrovsk (Donetsk) axis, including advances in Dimitrov (Myrnohrad), Rodinskoye, and Krasnolimansky directions. Confirmed claims of liberation of Boykivka and Belhiyka by RF MoD and Kotsnews. Continued attempts to control island zone in the Dnieper delta (Kherson). Artillery of 1198th Motorized Rifle Regiment (35th Army Group "Vostok") active in South Donetsk direction. Engaged in 9 assaults on Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. Heavy assaults continue near Plavni and Stepnohirsk on the Kamenskoye sector of Zaporizhzhia. RF sources show "Zaba" drone operators conducting combat work. Colonelcassad reports assault groups advancing in forests near Melovoye, Kharkiv Oblast. Kadyrov's "Zapad-AKHMAT" battalion active near Vovchansk. Over 800 RF strikes in 24 hours in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Colonelcassad (Boris Rozhin) discusses Russian forces' success in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), claiming RF DRGs have entered the city and have fire control over a key supply road to Rodinskoye. Video from Два майора highlights naval infantry training, indicating continued focus on amphibious capabilities. Colonelcassad (RF source) provides video footage showing reconnaissance efforts and targeting of Ukrainian logistics by elements of the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (Vostok Group) in the South Donetsk direction, confirming their continued capability for tactical reconnaissance and precision strikes against logistics. Russian forces attacked a penitentiary facility in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and used FPV drones and KABs against civilian communities in Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating continued direct targeting of both civilian infrastructure and population centers with ground-based assets. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) confirms RF forces struck Correctional Colony 99 in Bilenke. TASS (RF source) claims control of ~10 hectares in Kreminna forests (LNR) and are attempting to encircle UA forces near Shypylivka and Hryhorivka, indicating localized ground gains. Operatsiya Z (RF source) video indicates ground forces are supported by drones in offensive operations in Zaporizhzhia region, confirming combined arms tactics. Воин DV (RF source) video showing 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade operators destroying an enemy PVD (command/observation post) in the Vremivka direction demonstrates effective tactical ground operations supported by drones. A RF serviceman, identified as Stanislav Kochev (Hero of Russia), provides propaganda material describing combat with "Leopards" and "Bredli" (Bradleys) and expressing confidence in RF weaponry. RF sources ([Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition]) released video footage of claimed combat in Maliivka, Dnipropetropsk Oblast, highlighting effective RF tactical operations and use of captured equipment, indicating RF presence and activity in the area. DNR People's Militia (RF source) claims 3 Ukrainian National Guard soldiers surrendered in the Dimitrov (Myrnohrad) area, likely related to RF advances on the Pokrovsk axis. Basurin (RF source) shows Tornado-S MLRS systems firing, specifically TOS-1A "Solntsepyok," which is designed for thermobaric rockets against fortified positions. Two Mayors (RF source) release video of tests of new Russian armored vehicles (Spartak, Akhmat, Phoenix, Linza, Tigr), showcasing continued investment in ground vehicle modernization. Voin DV (RF source) video shows 40th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade assault unit training, indicating continued preparation for offensive ground operations. Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) provides aerial thermal footage of a tactical vehicle, likely a BTR, indicating continued RF reconnaissance and targeting of UA ground assets. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts video titled "The best job in the world!", showing RF soldiers in urban combat environments with destroyed buildings and vehicles, indicating continued offensive operations and presence in heavily contested areas. Voin DV (RF source) claims "Vostok" Group liberated settlement of Temirovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, supported by drone footage showing strikes on what appear to be civilian structures within a village. Basurin (RF source) presents a historical photo and caption about Peter I and the Russian navy, indirectly indicating RF's continued naval aspirations and capabilities. Операция Z (RF source, citing Военкоры Русской Весны) video released earlier claims Russian forces liberated Maliivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, due to "mercenaries fleeing without a fight," showing ground combat and drone activity. Сливочный каприз (RF source) map and video on Temirovka liberation confirms RF ground offensive capabilities in Zaporizhzhia. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that two assault groups from the 63rd Mechanized Brigade attacked an enemy dugout near Torske, capturing two Russian mercenaries after throwing grenades. Butusov Plus (UA source) shows a burning military vehicle with Russian audio, indicating a recent engagement. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RF assaults repelled in multiple directions including South Slobozhansky, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and Kherson, confirming persistent RF ground offensive capabilities. TASS reports RF MoD claims liberation of Temirovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Novoukrainka in Donetsk People's Republic. Операция Z (RF source) confirms liberation of Temirovka and Novoukrainka, providing associated photo messages, some of which appear to be battle maps or tactical diagrams, rather than direct combat footage. Военкор Котенок (RF source) confirms liberation of Novoukrainka and Temirovka. Два майора (RF source) posts photo message titled "Russian Ministry of Defense," which includes a map showing claimed Russian advances on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, consistent with previous reports of gains in this area. This reinforces the narrative of successful ground operations and territorial acquisition. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts video of aftermath of an artillery strike or explosion in a wooded area, showing destroyed trench/dugout position and potential human remains. Операция Z posts video providing drone footage of combat operations in the Pokrovsk direction, including successful strikes against enemy vehicles and armored personnel carriers. Сили оборони Півдня України posts video showcasing a Ukrainian 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzer engaging targets, demonstrating continued RF engagement against UA artillery. Старше Эдды posts video showing claimed combat in the Sumy direction, with drone footage of ground operations and explosions, indicating continued enemy activity in the area. Два майора posts video from the Sumy direction, showing ground operations and drone footage. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of two Ukrainian infantrymen attacking and capturing Russian assault troops. RF source БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС posts video of Russian forces performing combat coordination on motorcycles, likely a training exercise, but highlights RF mobility in rural areas. STERNENKO (UA source) reports Phoenix unit destroying enemy motorcyclists on Kostiantynivka direction, indicating RF's use of motorcycles in attempts to breach defenses. Kotsnews reports that the Russian army liberated Temirovka. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video showing evacuation under continuous fire, with a military vehicle displaying a "300" casualty marker. NEW: Colonelcassad posts video of a Lancet loitering munition striking a UA engineering vehicle of the 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade near Pokrovskoe. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Операция Z reports Russian army entered Kolodezi, advancing towards Lyman. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) NEW: Воин DV posts drone footage showing multiple individuals, likely soldiers, on the ground after an explosive impact, with thermal imaging showing heat signatures and target reticle. This visually confirms RF's capability to effectively engage and inflict casualties on ground targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cyber: Demonstrated capability to conduct disruptive cyberattacks against critical civilian infrastructure (Aeroflot IT systems, Zhukovsky Airport's website). ASTRA (RF source) confirms severe and prolonged impact on Aeroflot's IT systems, highlighting the scale of disruption RF cyber adversaries can achieve. Новости Москвы (RF source) and TASS (RF source) claiming stabilization of Aeroflot flights indicates RF's capacity for rapid, albeit partial, recovery from cyberattacks. Colonelcassad reports a serious cyberattack on the French defense industry, primarily targeting Naval Group (a leading shipbuilding company) and indirectly affecting THALES, Dassault, and Safran (leading global avionics companies). Новости Москвы (RF source) reports that "Stolichki" pharmacy network has been hacked and stores are closed across Moscow, indicating RF's continued vulnerability to cyberattacks impacting civilian services. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video on the hack of "Stolichki" and "Neopharm" pharmacy networks in Russia, confirming further successful cyberattacks against Russian civilian infrastructure. Операция Z reports on a hacker attack affecting large pharmacy chains in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports large pharmacy networks in Moscow and St. Petersburg have been hacked. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the Moscow clinic network "Family Doctor" was subjected to a hacker attack, citing Russian media. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports hackers have taken down the "Почта России" (Russian Post) website. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Zoom fined for non-compliance with Russian law on foreign internet entities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security: Capable of detaining individuals for alleged terror plots and "defeatist conversations." Continued efforts to control information. TASS reports new restrictions on hiring foreign citizens for taxi and carsharing services in St. Petersburg. Operational Z report on Sharia in migrant communities indicates a perceived internal security threat from ethnic/religious groups. New measures in Moscow to fine landlords for unregistered tenants indicate increasing capability to control internal population movements and identify potential security risks. TASS reports criminal case opened against teenagers setting fire to a forest, blaming Ukrainian curators, indicating active internal security operations against alleged sabotage. Sever.Realii's report on potential repression of a citizen named Kunis suggests continued capability for targeting individuals perceived as threats. RF FSB demonstrated capability to prevent terrorist attacks on high-ranking military officials and detain suspects, as reported by TASS and corroborated by Два майора and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺. TASS video and Alex Parker Returns text confirm the FSB detained a Central Asian citizen who confessed to receiving a bomb in St. Petersburg for an attack in Rostov-on-Don targeting a high-ranking military official, indicating ongoing and effective counter-terrorism capabilities. Sever.Realii reports detention of a Leningrad Oblast deputy for a Navalny post, indicating continued capability for political repression. TASS reports an explosion in a correctional colony in Volgograd Oblast, indicating a potential internal security or infrastructure vulnerability. The ability to manage casualties suggests some emergency response capability. TASS reports a military representative officer is accused of bribery in state defense order fulfillment, indicating continued capability to identify and prosecute corruption within their own systems, though the prevalence of such acts suggests a systemic issue. ASTRA reports 4 prisoners injured in a gas cylinder explosion in a correctional colony in Volgograd Oblast. Sever.Realii reports a resident of Arkhangelsk was sentenced to mandatory labor for a cross-shaped lamp at a party, indicating continued internal repression and religious intolerance. TASS reports that "Главпродукт" (Mainproduct) company's main legal entity is now state-owned through Rosimushchestvo (Federal Agency for State Property Management), indicating increased state control over key economic sectors. TASS reports delays to 8 flights in Sochi Airport. TASS reports Duma Deputy Butina attributes her conviction in Ukraine to "the agony of the Ukro-regime," reflecting RF propaganda efforts to discredit UA legal processes. TASS reports the Presidium of the Spiritual Administration of Muslims called on RF authorities to evaluate statements by writer Dina Rubina about killing residents of Gaza, indicating internal social and religious tensions. TASS (RF source) reports that wildfires in Los Angeles have caused the largest insured losses since the Fukushima disaster, potentially serving as a distraction from internal RF issues. ASTRA (RF source) posts photo messages stating Aeroflot IT system recovery could take up to a year, with losses exceeding 250 million rubles, confirming the severe impact of the cyberattack. Новости Москвы (RF source) claims Aeroflot has stabilized its flight program from 29 July, with 93% of flights operating, attempting to project a return to normalcy after the cyberattack. TASS (RF source) confirms Aeroflot resumed scheduled flights from 10:00 MSK 29 July, with 93% of flights operating, supporting the narrative of stability. TASS (RF source) reports the State Council of Crimea proposed banning public use of works by "foreign agents" or citizens of "unfriendly states," indicating further tightening of internal information and cultural controls. Филолог в zasade (RF source) reports fundraising efforts (224,693 rubles) for drone components ("birds") for reconnaissance units on the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating localized logistical support efforts within RF. ТАСС (RF source) reports the UK Supreme Court rejected an appeal by businessman Shvidler against his inclusion on the anti-Russian sanctions list, indicating continued Western legal pressure on Russian oligarchs. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) discusses the possibility of year-round conscription, indicating potential changes to RF mobilization policy. ТАСС (RF source) reports Putin appointed Denis Gonchar as the Russian Ambassador to Belgium, indicating routine diplomatic appointments. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts video confirming FSB prevented a terrorist attack in Rostov-on-Don against a high-ranking military official, showing apprehension of suspect and explosives. Colonelcassad confirms Aeroflot has managed the consequences of the cyberattack with 93% of flights operating. Moscow News (RF source) shows a video of a traffic fine for driving in the left lane in Russia, irrelevant to military operations. Kotsnews reports "another terrorist from Central Asia." Басурин о главном reports senators introduced three bills to the State Duma aimed at additional support for SVO participants and their families, indicating continued state support efforts. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) reports a "civil servant" found work for those who will be dismissed due to internet shutdown, indicating internal economic impacts from internet restrictions. Два майора promotes cryptocurrency donation bot for "special forces units," indicating continued localized fundraising for military support. Новости Москвы (RF source) reports that "Stolichki" pharmacy network has been hacked and stores are closed across Moscow, indicating a new successful cyberattack affecting civilian infrastructure within the RF capital, causing direct disruption to public services. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports that Aeroflot system failures have ended, indicating a recovery from the recent cyberattack. ASTRA posts photo messages of a Krasnoyarsk official suggesting remote workers losing jobs due to internet shutdowns should "go to the SVO (Special Military Operation)," highlighting social pressure for military recruitment and economic impacts of internet restrictions. Russian President Putin stated banks should not worsen mortgages for citizens by introducing additional fees, as reported by TASS. TASS reports that the General Prosecutor's Office sent a case to court regarding the embezzlement of 519 million rubles from the Russian Pension Fund, indicating ongoing internal financial integrity issues and counter-corruption efforts. ASTRA and Север.Реалии report that journalist Olga Komleva has been sentenced to 12 years in prison for "military fakes" and participation in an "extremist community," indicating continued internal repression and control over information. TASS reports two vacationers were injured by a rockfall in Kislovodsk, a natural event with no military relevance. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video on the hack of "Stolichki" and "Neopharm" pharmacy networks in Russia, confirming further cyberattacks impacting civilian services. Colonelcassad reports on a new educational program for SVO veterans in EAO. Новости Москвы posts a photo message about stress at work for Russians, attributing it to toxicity and leadership problems. TASS reports that Washington imposed the highest tariffs since the beginning of the 20th century. RF source Глеб Никитин posts a video of a soldier from the 47th Tank Division discussing his apartment being robbed while he was serving, emphasizing police efforts to catch the criminals and state support for military families. TASS reports that part of an office building collapsed in Yekaterinburg, with no reported casualties. ASTRA reports an office building partially collapsed in Yekaterinburg, citing TASS and the Interior Ministry, with no reported casualties. TASS reports a fire blocked 15 workers on the upper floors of a residential building under construction in northern Moscow, with 9 rescued and 5 more being rescued. ASTRA posts video of the Moscow construction site fire, showing thick black smoke billowing. Новости Москвы posts video of an alpaca being carried, irrelevant to military operations. TASS reports 12 people independently left an office building in Yekaterinburg where a three-story collapse occurred. TASS reports 21 employees evacuated from the office building in Yekaterinburg after collapse. TASS reports 24 people evacuated from neighboring premises after the building collapse in Yekaterinburg. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports large pharmacy networks in Moscow and St. Petersburg have been hacked. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the Moscow clinic network "Family Doctor" was subjected to a hacker attack, citing Russian media. TASS reports a man was detained in St. Petersburg for throwing a smoke bomb into a bank branch, with no casualties. "Почта России" (Russian Post) is experiencing a nationwide system failure, with its website being down. NEW: TASS reports no people were found under the rubble of the office building in Yekaterinburg. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Zoom fined 79.6 million rubles for non-compliance with Russian law on foreign internet entities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы reports a blogger, Areg Shchepikhin, kidnapped at Yaroslavsky station, will be held in pre-trial detention until 22 January 2026. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы posts a photo message proposing a monument to migrants at the location of "Big Clay No. 4," indicating a social engineering/propaganda effort related to migrant communities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval: RBC-Ukraine reports that the war has led to the collapse of Russia's key fleet renewal project. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Intentions:
  • Strategic Attrition: Continue to degrade Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure through persistent long-range strikes. RF is increasing pressure on Zaporizhzhia Oblast with over 800 strikes in 24 hours, actively targeting civilians. RF is launching KABs towards Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. ASTRA reports a drone attack on a railway station in Salsk, Rostov Oblast, resulting in one fatality. This demonstrates UA's intent to conduct deep strikes and disrupt RF logistics, which RF will attribute as a terror attack. The strike on the traction substation in Rostov Oblast and the confirmed railway disruption at Salsk further indicate UA's intent to disrupt RF logistical capacity. The RF attack on a penitentiary facility in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulting in casualties, indicates a deliberate intent to target civilian infrastructure with significant human impact, likely to cause widespread terror and demoralization. Operatyvnyi ZSU (UA source) video of a Donetsk resident complaining about bombardments, water, and energy blockades from UA actions will be used by RF to frame UA as the aggressor targeting civilians and infrastructure. Mash na Donbasse (RF source) reporting damage to the "Pushkinsky" Business Center in Donetsk from UA drones aims to solidify this narrative. Governor of Belgorod Oblast repeating "inhumane crimes against peaceful citizens" narrative. Operatsiya Z (RF source) provides multiple video and photo messages of fires and explosions in Rostov Oblast, explicitly blaming Ukrainian drones for attacks on freight and passenger trains at Salsk station, reinforcing the victimization narrative. Mash na Donbasse blaming AFU for Donetsk power outages. Sever.Realii's report on Kunis could be used to illustrate heavy-handed tactics by Russian authorities, which RF could frame as necessary security measures. Dva Mayora (RF source) explicitly blaming Ukraine for "mass drone attack" on Donetsk continues the victim narrative. TASS video of Manhattan emergency response for mass shooting could be used to highlight internal Western instability and distract from Ukraine. RF sources ([Операция Z] Военкоры Русской Весны]) claim strike on Kamenskoye hit a "military rehabilitation center" and blame the city's mayor for "giving it up," indicating an intent to legitimize strikes on civilian infrastructure by falsely labeling them as military targets and sowing internal distrust in UA. RF FSB preventing a terrorist attack in Rostov-on-Don will be used to reinforce the narrative of Ukraine's "terrorist" actions within Russia. TASS video confirms FSB detention of a Central Asian citizen who confessed to preparing a terror attack in Rostov-on-Don, supporting the "Ukrainian agents" narrative. Sever.Realii's report on detention of a Leningrad Oblast deputy for a Navalny post will be framed internally as necessary state security, while internationally it will highlight suppression of dissent. Voenkor Kotonok video highlighting lonely elderly people, ostensibly humanitarian, is a soft propaganda piece appealing to empathy, perhaps to divert from war issues. TASS reports Politico's claims about Zelenskyy's panic due to declining popularity, aiming to sow discord within Ukraine and delegitimize its leadership. Moscow News (RF source) reports that banks are depriving Russians of access to their money for months, which could be framed as a necessary measure for financial stability or as a consequence of Western sanctions, to manage public discontent. TASS reports Harvard is ready to pay $500M to settle disputes with Trump administration, possibly to highlight political pressure tactics in the US. Mash na Donbasse (RF source) explicitly blames UA for attacking a residential complex in Donetsk, fueling the civilian victimization narrative. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts photos showing drone damage to a business center and residential complex in Donetsk, supporting the narrative of UA targeting civilian areas. Filolog v zasade (RF source) reporting on machine gun boxes being freely sold in Donetsk could be used by RF to blame UA for illicit arms trade or lack of control in occupied territories. RF sources ([Операция Z] Военкоры Русской Весны]) describe the FSB prevention of an assassination attempt on the "Wolves of Da Vinci" commander as a "circus," aiming to discredit Ukrainian security services. TASS reports a gas cylinder explosion in a correctional colony in Volgograd Oblast, and could frame it as an internal security threat or sabotage if it benefits their narrative, or downplay it as an an accident. TASS reports a military representative officer is accused of bribery in state defense order fulfillment, indicating RF actively fighting corruption, contrasting with alleged UA corruption, to bolster their image. Fighterbomber's recruitment video is a direct propaganda effort to boost military personnel numbers, framing military service positively. Pushilin (RF source) blaming UA shelling for power/water outages in DPR aims to paint UA as targeting civilians. Operatyvnyi ZSU and ASTRA reports of two RF sapper deaths during UAV demining in Rostov Oblast will be framed by RF as further evidence of UA "terrorism" and justify retaliatory strikes. TASS reports US proposal to buy Komandorsky Islands is framed as an absurd and hostile move, designed to reinforce anti-Western sentiment. TASS reports Butina's statement about her conviction being "agony of Ukro-regime," aiming to portray UA as weak and desperate. ASTRA reports civilian death in Belgorod from drone attack, which RF will use to justify further actions. Sever.Realii reports on the conviction for the cross-shaped lamp in Arkhangelsk, which RF will frame as maintaining social order and traditional values, while externally it will highlight repression. TASS reports on the evaluation of Dina Rubina's statements, reflecting RF's efforts to align with global Muslim sentiment and justify actions related to Gaza. TASS (RF source) reports wildfires in Los Angeles, likely framing Western countries as facing internal crises. ASTRA (RF source) reporting on Aeroflot cyberattack losses and recovery time aims to manage the narrative around infrastructure vulnerabilities. Новости Москвы (RF source) and TASS (RF source) claiming stabilization of Aeroflot flights demonstrate adaptive public messaging to mitigate the impact of the cyberattack. TASS (RF source) reports Crimea's proposal to ban works by "foreign agents" aims to portray RF as protecting its cultural sovereignty. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) discussing year-long conscription aims to normalize long-term military service. Рыбарь (RF source) video on "subversive migration" aims to stoke fear and justify internal security measures. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) video of Vyacheslav Volodin promotes military service and a sense of national unity and superiority. TASS (RF source) reports Moldova intends to remove "Moldovagaz" from supply, which may be framed as a blow to RF's economic influence in the region, potentially causing concern. TASS reports Saldo's claim of repelled UA landing attempt on Tendrovska Spit, aiming to portray RF defensive success and UA failures. ASTRA reports 22 killed and 85 wounded in Ukraine due to RF shelling (Zelenskyy's statement). TASS reports CNN stating UA forces are exhausted and facing extreme personnel shortages on the frontline, a direct RF information operation to demoralize UA and its supporters. Kotsnews reports "another terrorist from Central Asia." Два майора claiming the Minsk drone was Ukrainian with Western European components and Ukrainian markings is a clear disinformation attempt to blame Ukraine for the incident and potentially implicate NATO. TASS reports Peskov stating Russia will continue the "special military operation" despite Trump's statements, a strong messaging point to project unwavering resolve. TASS reports Peskov rejecting claims of RF attacking the correctional colony in Zaporizhzhia, aiming to control the narrative and deflect blame. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts photo message titled "Ukraine is rapidly breaking into the leaders of the European economy. Good will come!", which is highly sarcastic propaganda mocking Ukrainian economic claims, ironically intended to portray UA as economically weak. ТАСС reports Peskov stating RF and USA are not in contact regarding NST, due to the state of bilateral relations, emphasizing Western diplomatic failures. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts photo message of a "Ukrainian General" in London, mocking Ukrainian leadership and their perceived detachment from the conflict. TASS reports Peskov confirming Kremlin noted Trump's statement on "reducing terms" but SVO continues, explicitly reinforcing RF's intent to dictate the conflict's pace and outcome for information operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a weekly author's column image, likely a propaganda piece for internal consumption. UA source Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) posts photo messages from Kamenskoye, depicting cleanup after a night missile strike. RF will use this to claim successful targeting, or to shift blame for civilian casualties. TASS reports Washington Post columnist David Ignatius believes Zelenskyy made a "tragic mistake" in trying to strip NABU and SAP of independence. RF will amplify this to portray UA as corrupt and undermine its international standing. TASS posts photo messages reporting that three opposition parties in Moldova have submitted documents to the Central Election Commission to register a bloc advocating for the restoration of relations with Russia. This will be used by RF to demonstrate perceived growing support for Russia in its near abroad. TASS posts video messages highlighting 60,000+ fatalities in Gaza, as part of RF's broader information campaign to highlight perceived Western/Israeli atrocities and divert attention from Ukraine, aligning with a victim narrative. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo messages about a detained citizen from Central Asia, recruited by Ukrainian special services, who rented an apartment to blow up an officer. This is a direct RF propaganda effort to portray Ukraine as a state sponsor of terrorism. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts photo message with caption "Residents of the emergency building are offered to go to war in exchange for resettlement," indicating a propaganda message linking military service to social benefits. Басурин о главном posts photo of an angry Donald Trump, likely to project a narrative of internal Western political discontent. Kotsnews posts video showing individuals being apprehended, captioned "Teenage arsonists will be tried for terrorism." This serves to justify internal crackdowns by linking them to Ukrainian-directed terrorism. TASS reports Putin stated banks should not worsen mortgages for citizens. Народная милиция ДНР posts video of a religious ceremony and testimony from a man with a Russian flag on his sleeve, discussing faith and suffering in Donbas. This is soft propaganda to humanize the conflict and promote religious/nationalistic values. Moscow News posts video of a new expensive district in Moscow, likely soft propaganda to project normalcy and economic stability. Военкор Котенок posts video from Iran's Intelligence Ministry, likely used by RF to frame a narrative about the global fight against "foreign agents" and "terrorism," mirroring their own internal security concerns. Alex Parker Returns posts photo messages about a Sharia court administrator vacancy in Manchester (UK), which will be used by RF to promote a narrative of Western cultural decline and internal instability, diverting from their own issues. TASS reports on the General Prosecutor's Office sending a case to court regarding embezzlement from the Russian Pension Fund. RF will frame this as successful anti-corruption efforts. ASTRA and Север.Реалии reporting on journalist Olga Komleva's sentencing will be used internally by RF to project strength and control, and externally to dismiss criticism as biased. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts a collage of portraits of four individuals with a caption implying they have been "successfully demobilized" (likely killed), which is a UA propaganda effort to highlight RF losses. RF will counter this by dismissing it or portraying it as Ukrainian barbarism. РБК-Україна posts photo messages showing damage to a tax office building in Sumy Oblast due to an enemy attack, which RF will use to demonstrate continued Ukrainian suffering and justify their actions. TASS reports US and UK organized a secret meeting in the Alps to discuss replacing Zelenskyy. This is a clear RF disinformation campaign, aimed at delegitimizing UA leadership. TASS reports Zaluzhny was nominated for Ukrainian president at the secret meeting. TASS reports "Ukrainian presidential elections" took place at an Alpine resort. Alex Parker Returns posts photo messages containing derogatory content about Shoigu's son. Два майора posts a map regarding declining global interest in the Russia-Ukraine war versus Israel. RF source Операция Z (citing Russian Foreign Intelligence Service) reports that the US and UK secretly discussed replacing Zelenskyy with Zaluzhny in the Alps. This is a significant disinformation campaign aiming to sow discord within Ukraine's leadership and delegitimize it. RF source Kotsnews posts photo messages stating "SVR: A new president of Ukraine was chosen in the Alps," reinforcing the disinformation campaign about replacing Zelenskyy. RF source Fighterbomber reports Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) "bursts into the news," indicating a potential release of new intelligence or information operation to shape narratives. RF source Глеб Никитин posts video about a soldier whose apartment was robbed and the police response, used to demonstrate state support for military personnel and to counter negative narratives. ASTRA posts video message of children from DPR appealing to Putin for water, which is a powerful propaganda piece intended to elicit sympathy and blame Ukraine for humanitarian issues. Rybar (RF source) provides an assessment about "signal outside Israeli access," which is likely intended to highlight RF's intelligence capabilities or to promote a narrative about their ability to circumvent Western surveillance. This falls under information warfare aimed at projecting technical superiority or an ability to operate covertly. Rybar posts photo messages titled "Theology with a British trail," implying a propaganda piece with an anti-Western/anti-UK slant, likely concerning religious influence or perceived Western interference in religious matters. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts photo messages claiming "elections" for the President of Ukraine were held at an Alpine resort, citing the SVR (Russian Foreign Intelligence Service). Alex Parker Returns posts photo messages showing a dilapidated building with the caption "And so it is always with them," implying widespread decay and incompetence, likely targeting Ukraine or a Western country for propaganda purposes. NEW: TASS reports Romania denied decision to engage in military actions in Ukraine. This aims to counter any narratives of NATO expansion or direct intervention. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Rybar posts a video, "Forgive and sink," likely focusing on alleged Ukrainian maritime threats or incidents, further feeding the victimization narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports head of local administration Tatyana Ryabkina wounded after UA drone attack on service vehicle in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, which will be used to reinforce the narrative of UA targeting civilians/officials. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Military Success: Highlight claimed RF advances (Pokrovsk, Krasnolimansky, Plavni), successful AD intercepts, and new military capabilities. Video from Два майора on naval infantry training reinforces the narrative of RF military readiness and capability. TASS (RF source) explicitly states UA forces "fled" from Radkivka, Kharkiv Oblast, after RF strikes, directly promoting a narrative of RF military success and UA weakness. Medvedev's statement directly challenging US senators on negotiation timing will be used to project an image of RF strength and autonomy in foreign policy. TASS (RF source) claim of controlling ~10 hectares in Kreminna forests and encircling UA forces near Shypylivka and Hryhorivka will be used to demonstrate continued RF tactical gains. WarGonzo maps indicate RF advances in Kupyansk and Sumy directions, posing potential threats to UA positions. Operatsiya Z (RF source) report of Russian army continuing to encircle and storm Kupyansk to cut AFU logistics, if successful, would be a significant setback. RF source Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claiming successful Geran drone strikes on military targets in Izyum and striking IK 99 in Bilenke supports RF's narrative of effective long-range strikes and precision attacks. Operatsiya Z (RF source) video shows "Shaman" drone operators supporting offensive on Orikhiv, highlighting drone effectiveness and ground force advances. Воин DV (RF source) video shows special forces destroying an enemy PVD, reinforcing precision strike capability. Stanislav Kochev's statements about RF weapons efficacy serve to bolster morale and project an image of military superiority. Fighterbomber's photo of RF aircraft flying with "valuable cargo" is a soft propaganda piece to project capability and confidence. Operatsiya Z (RF source) claiming RF army continues to encircle and storm Kupyansk to cut AFU logistics, reinforces the narrative of RF military success. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's video of a drone strike near Chasiv Yar is designed to show RF tactical effectiveness. Colonelcassad (RF source) video of a Rosgvardia soldier shooting down a drone aims to promote RF counter-drone effectiveness. DNR People's Militia (RF source) video showing drone operations, including anti-drone warfare, promotes RF military advancement. DNR People's Militia (RF source) video claiming UA National Guard soldiers surrendered near Dimitrov serves to highlight RF tactical success and UA weakness. RF sources ([Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition]) videos depicting combat in Maliivka promote RF advances and tactical effectiveness. Basurin (RF source) claiming Tornado-S MLRS destruction of UA combat vehicles, ammunition, and manpower in AFU in Kharkiv direction promotes RF combat effectiveness. TASS reports Geran-2 UAV strike on a temporary deployment point in Sumy, promoting RF precision strike capability. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) map of Siversk direction highlights RF activity and presence in the area. Two Mayors (RF source) video of new armored vehicle tests promotes RF military modernization and capability. Slyvochny Kapriz (RF source) provides a map of battle operations from 25-28 July, aiming to demonstrate RF territorial gains and overall progress. Voin DV (RF source) video of 40th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade assault unit training visually reinforces RF military readiness. Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) aerial thermal footage of a tactical vehicle suggests RF surveillance and targeting effectiveness. Colonelcassad's video "The best job in the world!" promotes RF military prowess and highlights their presence in contested urban areas. Rybar (RF source) video shows a ZALA UAV successfully striking a maritime target, promoting RF's advanced capabilities. Operatsiya Z (RF source) video claiming special forces burning enemy armored vehicles in Chernihiv direction promotes RF military effectiveness. Voin DV (RF source) claims "Vostok" Group liberated Temirovka in Zaporizhzhia, supported by drone footage, indicating RF territorial gains and offensive success. Basurin (RF source) presents a historical photo and caption about Peter I and the Russian navy, indirectly indicating RF's continued naval aspirations and capabilities. Операция Z (RF source, citing Военкоры Русской Весны) video from Maliivka indicates adaptation in ground offensive tactics. Сливочный каприз (RF source) map and video on Temirovka liberation confirms RF ground offensive capabilities in Zaporizhzhia. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows UA 63rd Mechanized Brigade assaulting an enemy dugout and capturing two mercenaries, indicating adaptive UA assault tactics. TASS reports RF MoD claims liberation of Temirovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Novoukrainka in Donetsk People's Republic, a clear and strong narrative of RF military success and territorial gains. Операция Z (RF source) confirms liberation of Temirovka and Novoukrainka, amplifying the narrative of military success. Военкор Котенок (RF source) confirms liberation of Novoukrainka and Temirovka. Два майора (RF source) posts photo message titled "Russian Ministry of Defense," which includes a map showing claimed Russian advances on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, consistent with previous reports of gains in this area. This reinforces the narrative of successful ground operations and territorial acquisition. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts a photo message showing a map titled "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine July 28 - July 29, 2025," which serves as a visual propaganda piece highlighting RF's continued strike capabilities and control over information. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) reporting "Battle for Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad" reinforces the narrative of RF military advances in a key sector. Сливочный каприз (RF source) posting a tactical map of "Krasnoarmeysk-Vladimirovka" operation further emphasizes RF military advances. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts video of drone operations showing active targeting and strikes, used to promote RF military successes. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts video of aftermath of an artillery strike or explosion in a wooded area, showing destroyed trench/dugout position and likely human remains. This is evidence of a successful RF strike. Операция Z posts video providing drone footage of combat operations in the Pokrovsk direction, including successful strikes against enemy vehicles and armored personnel carriers, reinforcing the narrative of RF military success. Сили оборони Півдня України posts video showcasing a Ukrainian 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzer engaging targets, demonstrating continued RF engagement against UA artillery. Старше Эдды posts video showing claimed combat operations in the Sumy direction, including ground force activity and drone footage, used to promote RF military successes. Два майора posts video from the Sumy direction, showing ground operations and drone footage, consistent with promoting RF military success. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of two Ukrainian infantrymen attacking and capturing Russian assault troops. MoD Russia posts video of FPV drone deployment with explosives, used to show successful targeting. ASTRA posts photo messages showing a large crater and debris, with a caption about 100 Russian aviation bombs "accidentally descending" on Russian and occupied Ukrainian territories in 2025. This suggests RF aviation is active but experiencing significant technical failures. TASS posts video of claimed liberation of Temirovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, showing drone footage of explosions near structures, reinforcing RF military success claims. Colonelcassad posts video of drone footage from the Donbas, highlighting military operations, suggesting successes in the region. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts drone reconnaissance footage from the southwest DND region, focusing on a settlement and showing a fire/explosion event, used to promote RF military advances. RF source БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС posts video of Russian forces performing combat coordination on motorcycles, used to promote RF military readiness and capabilities. STERNENKO (UA source) posts video of Phoenix unit destroying enemy motorcyclists, which supports UA success but also shows RF's attempts. Colonelcassad confirms RF MoD summary on SVO, which outlines RF's claimed successes. Kadyrov_95 posts a video showcasing successful drone operations by the "Izya" UAV unit of "AHMAT" special forces in the Kharkiv direction, showing aerial reconnaissance and targeted strikes on alleged Ukrainian militant hideouts and positions. Colonelcassad posts video of a "Molniya" drone striking an enemy assault group. MoD Russia posts video of servicemen from the 51st Guards Army training against enemy FPV drones, promoting RF capabilities in counter-drone warfare. NEW: TASS posts a video showing a Lancet UAV strike on three artillery positions of enemy forces, specifically identifying a 155mm piece as destroyed, confirming RF's capability to destroy high-value UA targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Операция Z reports Russian army entered Kolodezi, advancing towards Lyman, a claimed advance that would represent a tactical success. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) NEW: Воин DV posts drone footage visually confirming effective RF engagement and casualties on ground targets, reinforcing RF military success narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Western Weakness/Division: Amplify dissenting voices within the EU and US (Trump statements) to portray Western disunity and an impending end to the conflict on RF terms. Trump's statement regarding not seeking a meeting with Xi Jinping but potentially accepting an invitation may be framed by RF as indicative of a less cohesive Western foreign policy or a shift in US priorities. TASS reporting Politico's view of EU-US energy deal as "fantasy" aims to highlight perceived economic weakness and disunity within Western alliances. Medvedev's direct quote to Graham and Trump is a strong statement for Russian domestic and international audiences, projecting an image of Russian control over the negotiation timeline. TASS highlighting EU roads being unsuitable for military transport directly targets NATO's perceived weaknesses in rapid deployment. Voenkor DV (RF source) reports on US nuclear weapons transfer to UK, aiming to portray US/UK as escalatory and a threat to Russia, fueling anti-Western narratives. TASS reports on Polish discontent with Ukrainian refugees, aiming to sow discord between key European allies. TASS reports China will welcome improved relations between Russia and US, promoting a narrative of broader geopolitical harmony. TASS reports on the Vucic government in Serbia "hanging by a thread," aiming to highlight political instability in Europe. TASS reports Harvard is ready to pay $500M to settle disputes with Trump administration, possibly to highlight political pressure tactics in the US. TASS reports US proposal to buy Komandorsky Islands is framed as an absurd attempt by the US to pressure Russia, intending to highlight US aggression and Russia's steadfastness. TASS (RF source) reports wildfires in Los Angeles, likely framing Western countries as facing internal crises. TASS (RF source) reports on UK Supreme Court rejecting an appeal by businessman Shvidler against his inclusion on the anti-Russian sanctions list, aiming to highlight continued Western pressure but also its limitations. TASS reports Trump dominated the conversation with Starmer in Scotland, aiming to highlight internal Western political dynamics. TASS reports Peskov stating Russia will continue the "special military operation" despite Trump's statements, explicitly rejecting external influence. ТАСС reports Peskov stating RF and USA are not in contact regarding NST, due to the state of bilateral relations, emphasizing Western diplomatic failures. ТАСС reports Peskov confirming Kremlin noted Trump's statement on "reducing terms" but SVO continues, explicitly demonstrating RF's independence from Western pressure. TASS reports Washington Post columnist David Ignatius believes Zelenskyy made a "tragic mistake" in trying to strip NABU and SAP of independence. RF will amplify this to portray internal Western criticism of UA's governance. TASS posts photo messages reporting that three opposition parties in Moldova have submitted documents to the Central Election Commission to register a bloc advocating for the restoration of relations with Russia. This will be used by RF to demonstrate perceived growing support for Russia in its near abroad. TASS posts video messages highlighting 60,000+ fatalities in Gaza, as part of RF's broader information campaign to highlight perceived Western/Israeli atrocities and divert attention from Ukraine, aligning with a victim narrative. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo messages about a detained citizen from Central Asia, recruited by Ukrainian special services, who rented an apartment to blow up an officer. This is a direct RF propaganda effort to portray Ukraine as a state sponsor of terrorism. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts photo message with caption "Residents of the emergency building are offered to go to war in exchange for resettlement," indicating a propaganda message linking military service to social benefits. Басурин о главном posts photo of an angry Donald Trump, likely to project a narrative of internal Western political discontent. Kotsnews posts video showing individuals being apprehended, captioned "Teenage arsonists will be tried for terrorism." This serves to justify internal crackdowns by linking them to Ukrainian-directed terrorism. TASS reports Putin stated banks should not worsen mortgages for citizens. Народная милиция ДНР posts video of a religious ceremony and testimony from a man with a Russian flag on his sleeve, discussing faith and suffering in Donbas. This is soft propaganda to humanize the conflict and promote religious/nationalistic values. Moscow News posts video of a new expensive district in Moscow, likely soft propaganda to project normalcy and economic stability. Военкор Котенок posts video from Iran's Intelligence Ministry, likely used by RF to frame a narrative about the global fight against "foreign agents" and "terrorism," mirroring their own internal security concerns. Alex Parker Returns posts photo messages about a Sharia court administrator vacancy in Manchester (UK), which will be used by RF to promote a narrative of Western cultural decline and internal instability, diverting from their own issues. TASS reports on the General Prosecutor's Office sending a case to court regarding embezzlement from the Russian Pension Fund. RF will frame this as successful anti-corruption efforts. ASTRA and Север.Реалии reporting on journalist Olga Komleva's sentencing will be used internally by RF to project strength and control, and externally to dismiss criticism as biased. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts a collage of portraits of four individuals with a caption implying they have been "successfully demobilized" (likely killed), which is a UA propaganda effort to highlight RF losses. RF will counter this by dismissing it or portraying it as Ukrainian barbarism. РБК-Україна posts photo messages showing damage to a tax office building in Sumy Oblast due to an enemy attack, which RF will use to demonstrate continued Ukrainian suffering and justify their actions. TASS reports US and UK organized a secret meeting in the Alps to discuss replacing Zelenskyy. This is a clear RF disinformation campaign, aimed at delegitimizing UA leadership. TASS reports Zaluzhny was nominated for Ukrainian president at the secret meeting. TASS reports "Ukrainian presidential elections" took place at an Alpine resort. Alex Parker Returns posts photo messages containing derogatory content about Shoigu's son. Два майора posts a map regarding declining global interest in the Russia-Ukraine war versus Israel. RF source Операция Z (citing Russian Foreign Intelligence Service) reports that the US and UK secretly discussed replacing Zelenskyy with Zaluzhny in the Alps. This is a significant disinformation campaign aiming to sow discord within Ukraine's leadership and delegitimize it. RF source Kotsnews posts photo messages stating "SVR: A new president of Ukraine was chosen in the Alps," reinforcing the disinformation campaign about replacing Zelenskyy. RF source Fighterbomber reports Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) "bursts into the news," indicating a potential release of new intelligence or information operation to shape narratives. RF source Глеб Никитин posts video about a soldier whose apartment was robbed and the police response, used to demonstrate state support for military personnel and to counter negative narratives. ASTRA posts video message of children from DPR appealing to Putin for water, which is a powerful propaganda piece intended to elicit sympathy and blame Ukraine for humanitarian issues. Rybar (RF source) provides an assessment about "signal outside Israeli access," which is likely intended to highlight RF's intelligence capabilities or to promote a narrative about their ability to circumvent Western surveillance. This falls under information warfare aimed at projecting technical superiority or an ability to operate covertly. Rybar posts photo messages titled "Theology with a British trail," implying a propaganda piece with an anti-Western/anti-UK slant, likely concerning religious influence or perceived Western interference in religious matters. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts photo messages claiming "elections" for the President of Ukraine were held at an Alpine resort, citing the SVR (Russian Foreign Intelligence Service). Alex Parker Returns posts photo messages showing a dilapidated building with the caption "And so it is always with them," implying widespread decay and incompetence, likely targeting Ukraine or a Western country for propaganda purposes. NEW: TASS reports Romania denied decision to engage in military actions in Ukraine, countering narratives of NATO expansion or direct intervention. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports largest military data leak in history occurred in France, which could be exploited by RF to highlight Western vulnerabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports head of local administration Tatyana Ryabkina wounded after UA drone attack on service vehicle in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, which will be used to reinforce the narrative of UA targeting civilians/officials. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports a billionaire close to Abramovich lost an appeal against sanctions in the UK, indicating continued Western legal pressure on Russian oligarchs. This will be used by RF to frame Western judicial actions as politically motivated. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UA Weakness/Forced Mobilization: Disseminate narratives about UA forces losing combat effectiveness, forced mobilization tactics, and alleged UA war crimes/corruption. The news of Ukraine's заочний (in absentia) conviction of State Duma deputy Maria Butina to 15 years in prison for "encroachment on territorial integrity" will be heavily spun by RF as political persecution and further evidence of Ukraine's "neo-Nazism" or disregard for international legal norms. The RF Defense Ministry claims of destroying a "Black Hawk" UH-60 at Pryluky airbase is a likely disinformation attempt to inflate RF combat effectiveness and potentially discourage Western aid, as it directly targets a sensitive US asset. DNR People's Militia (RF source) video of propaganda leaflet drops encouraging UA surrender directly targets UA troop morale and cohesion. TASS reports Politico's claims about Zelensky's panic due to declining popularity related to attempts to strip NABU/SAP independence, aiming to portray internal weakness and corruption within Ukrainian leadership. Moscow News (RF source) reporting on a contract soldier dying within a week could be used to demoralize potential recruits or highlight the dangers of service. TASS reports Butina's statement about her conviction being "agony of Ukro-regime," aiming to portray UA as weak and desperate. RF sources like Поддубный (RF source) claiming SBU has "grown into a full-fledged combat structure" while seemingly a compliment, could be twisted to imply UA security services are becoming more aggressive or less democratic. Операция Z (RF source, citing Военкоры Русской Весны) video from Maliivka liberation claims "mercenaries fled without a fight," depicting UA forces as weak and demoralized. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) discussing year-long conscription could be used to imply UA's personnel shortage or desperation. Tsapliyenko_Ukraine Fights reports that 150,000 Ukrainians of conscription age receive social benefits of €1.3 billion annually in Germany, with the CSU party demanding a cessation of these payments, arguing that men should either work or join the Ukrainian army, indicating potential pressure on UA to address manpower mobilization and a potential reduction in a source of financial support for UA citizens abroad. This will be used by RF to highlight UA's struggles with mobilization. TASS reports the Rada Committee could not discuss Zelensky's bill on NABU due to lack of quorum, which RF will use to portray internal political weakness in Ukraine. TASS reports CNN stating UA forces are exhausted and facing extreme personnel shortages on the frontline, a direct RF information operation to demoralize UA and its supporters. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts a photo message of a "Ukrainian General" in London, mocking Ukrainian leadership and their perceived detachment from the conflict, potentially harming public perception. Операция Z (RF source, citing Военкоры Русской Весны) posts photo messages stating "Work or Fight": Germany wants to deprive Ukrainian men of conscription age of benefits. This is a direct RF propaganda effort to highlight UA's mobilization challenges and potentially discourage refugees from returning. ASTRA posts photo messages of a Krasnoyarsk official suggesting remote workers losing jobs due to internet shutdowns should "go to the SVO," directly highlighting internal RF pressure to address UA's perceived manpower advantage. RF source reports Ukrainian military personnel in Konstantinovka stated to CNN about personnel shortages. This is a significant RF propaganda point aimed at highlighting UA weaknesses. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts photo message with caption "Residents of the emergency building are offered to go to war in exchange for resettlement," indicating a potentially coercive recruitment method, suggesting challenges in RF personnel sustainment. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts a collage of portraits of four individuals with a caption implying they have been "successfully demobilized" (likely killed), which is a UA propaganda effort to highlight RF losses. RF will counter this by dismissing it or portraying it as Ukrainian barbarism. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts photo messages with a Russian text saying "Infantry companies were worn down by 90-95%, until only the command was left from the assault company." This is a significant indicator of high RF infantry personnel losses, which RF will try to downplay, but UA will amplify. TASS reports US and UK organized a secret meeting in the Alps to discuss replacing Zelenskyy. This is a clear RF disinformation campaign, aimed at delegitimizing UA leadership. TASS reports Zaluzhny was nominated for Ukrainian president at the secret meeting. TASS reports "Ukrainian presidential elections" took place at an Alpine resort. Alex Parker Returns posts photo messages containing derogatory content about Shoigu's son. Два майора posts a map regarding declining global interest in the Russia-Ukraine war versus Israel. RF source Операция Z (citing Russian Foreign Intelligence Service) reports that the US and UK secretly discussed replacing Zelenskyy with Zaluzhny in the Alps. This is a significant disinformation campaign aiming to sow discord within Ukraine's leadership and delegitimize it. RF source Kotsnews posts photo messages stating "SVR: A new president of Ukraine was chosen in the Alps," reinforcing the disinformation campaign about replacing Zelenskyy. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts photo messages claiming "elections" for the President of Ukraine were held at an Alpine resort, citing the SVR (Russian Foreign Intelligence Service). NEW: РБК-Україна posts video featuring an expert discussing potential Russian breakthroughs near Pokrovsk, and challenges of UA troop concentration and redeployment. This acknowledges potential weaknesses from a UA perspective. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы reports blogger Areg Shchepikhin will be held in pre-trial detention, and the video shows him expressing a desire to communicate with his "brothers" in prison. This can be used by RF to depict internal Ukrainian dissent or anti-mobilization sentiment, although the context is of a blogger, not a soldier. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Воин DV posts drone footage visually confirming RF's effective engagement and casualties on ground targets. This reinforces RF's narrative of UA personnel losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Testing NATO: The alleged Russian "Gerbera" UAV flight over Vilnius, and the reported Russian border vessel violation of Estonian maritime borders, are used to portray RF as actively probing NATO's resolve. Dva Mayora confirms Estonian MFA protest, reinforcing this pattern. The unidentified UAV over Minsk and its destruction by Belarusian EW could be used by RF/Belarus to portray an external threat, potentially from Ukraine or NATO, to justify increased security or military cooperation. WarGonzo (RF source) confirming drone shot down over Minsk will be used to highlight a new external threat to Belarus, potentially implying NATO or UA aggression. Север.Реалии (RF source) confirms Belarusian MoD's statement on drone "suppression" over Minsk, indicating a continued intent to manage airspace security. TASS reports Moldova intends to remove "Moldovagaz" from supply, portraying Moldova aligning with Western anti-Russian policies. Colonelcassad reports a major cyberattack on the French defense industry, suggesting a direct information operation to portray NATO vulnerabilities. Rybar (RF source) video of alleged "Gerbera" UAVs over Lithuania explicitly serves to test and signal to NATO. Два майора claiming the Minsk drone was Ukrainian with Western components is an information operation aimed at provoking suspicion towards UA and NATO. TASS reports that the Belarusian Investigative Committee stated the UAV that fell in Minsk was equipped with TNT and damaging elements and had Ukrainian inscriptions on its debris, indicating an aggressive intent to attribute the drone to Ukraine and escalate tensions with NATO. New video from ASTRA shows drone wreckage with police/military personnel, consistent with the Minsk drone incident. This will be used to support the narrative of external threats to Belarus. TASS posts video of the Belarusian Investigative Committee investigating the Minsk drone, showing debris with Ukrainian inscription, reinforcing RF/Belarusian intent to attribute and escalate. Рыбарь posts a photo message claiming "Abrams as Air Defense", which could be interpreted as a tactical adaptation in information warfare to mock perceived Western military capabilities or highlight resource misallocation by NATO allies, to test NATO resilience through information warfare. TASS reports Norway's interim chargé d'affaires was summoned to the RF Foreign Ministry and handed a protest note over restrictions on Russian fishing vessels. This suggests an adaptive move by RF to challenge international norms. Военкор Котенок posts photo message from Kaliningrad borders with flight tracking, which could be used to highlight NATO monitoring. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports largest military data leak in history occurred in France, which could be exploited by RF to highlight Western vulnerabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports an expert from the field of unmanned aviation, Kuzyakin, stating the drone in Minsk was assembled in Ukraine and likely deviated due to a navigation error. This reinforces RF's narrative of Ukrainian drone activity near NATO/Belarusian borders. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Positive International Relations: TASS reporting on Russian schoolchildren's letter to Kim Jong Un is an effort to showcase positive international ties, particularly with non-Western aligned states, and to normalize the DPRK relationship. Colonelcassad denying "fake news" about seeking meeting with Xi Jinping aims to maintain a perception of controlled, strategic foreign policy. TASS reports Cambodia rejects Thailand's ceasefire violation claims, indicating a focus on broader international relations. TASS reports China will welcome improved relations between Russia and US, promoting a narrative of broader geopolitical harmony. Alex Parker Returns photo of Roscosmos head in US highlights continued space cooperation with US, portraying Russia as a responsible international partner. TASS reports the first flight from Pyongyang landed in Moscow, reinforcing positive DPRK-RF relations. TASS reports Sergey Mironov suggesting Russia could buy back Alaska, aims to project confidence and respond to perceived US aggression. Рыбарь posts an analysis piece titled "Sahel - the point of restarting Russian policy in Africa," indicating Russia's strategic interest in the Sahel region and its foreign policy intentions beyond Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Governance: RF government's rejection of food labeling for sugar/fat content (TASS) can be framed as prioritizing economic stability for producers over public health transparency, a narrative that avoids perceived governmental overreach. The announcement of pension increases for working pensioners from August 1st will be utilized to bolster the narrative of the RF government's commitment to social welfare and economic stability for its citizens. Operational Z's report on migrant communities and Sharia law will be used to justify tightening internal controls and promote a strong, unified state narrative. The Moscow fine for unregistered tenants will be presented as a measure to enhance public safety and order. News from Moscow regarding remote work preferences highlights a focus on internal social dynamics, which RF may frame as a positive (flexibility) or negative (economic control) depending on the narrative. TASS reporting on Shanghai police action against fake goods highlights internal law enforcement effectiveness in a key partner nation. TASS reporting on Soyuzmultfilm's legal loss in the US could be framed as a minor setback or as an example of Western legal unfairness. Basurin's discussion on military leadership challenges and the need for younger commanders is likely an attempt to manage expectations and project a proactive approach to perceived internal issues. TASS promoting production work for higher education points aims to foster a narrative of national dedication to labor and economic strength. Archangel Spetsnaz's focus on "Faith" aims to bolster spiritual morale among military and the public. Nizhny Novgorod Governor promoting religious traditions (baptisms) aims to foster social cohesion and traditional values. The vacancy for Chairman of the Supreme Court, reported by TASS, indicates the perceived stability and normal functioning of high-level government institutions. Kotsnews mentioning "confrontation in orbit" hints at RF attempts to promote a narrative of technological parity or superiority in space warfare. TASS reports temporary mobile internet restriction in Sverdlovsk Oblast, which will likely cause public inconvenience and potential dissatisfaction. Moscow News featuring a baby wallaby birth is soft propaganda to project normalcy and deflect from war issues. Moscow News (RF source) reports banks withholding access to money, which will likely cause significant public frustration and potentially lead to economic instability. The news of a contract soldier dying within a week might negatively impact recruitment efforts or public perception of safety within the military. TASS reports gas cylinder explosion in Volgograd correctional colony, potentially leading to public concern about safety in state institutions. Filolog v zasade (RF source) reporting on illicit arms sales in Donetsk city center will likely cause concern for public safety and internal security among residents. TASS reports a military representative officer accused of bribery, framed as RF combating internal corruption to maintain integrity. TASS reports the state ownership of "Главпродукт," aiming to highlight centralized control and stability of essential sectors. TASS reports flight delays in Sochi, which RF will downplay as minor inconvenience. Sever.Realii reports on conviction for religious symbol, RF will frame as maintaining order. TASS reports on the evaluation of Dina Rubina's statements, managing public opinion on sensitive social issues. TASS (RF source) reports Crimea's proposal to ban works by "foreign agents" aims to highlight centralized control and stability of essential sectors. TASS (RF source) reports on UK Supreme Court rejection of a businessman's sanctions appeal, aiming to portray the resilience of Russian elite despite Western pressure. Басурин о главном reports senators introduced three bills supporting SVO participants and their families, indicating efforts to promote state care and bolster internal morale. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) posts messages regarding job reassignments for those affected by internet shutdowns, which will be spun as state care but reveals underlying control mechanisms and economic impacts. Два майора promoting cryptocurrency donation bot for "special forces units," indicating continued localized fundraising for military support. Новости Москвы (RF source) posts video of a blogger walking 100,000 steps from Moscow center, serving as soft propaganda to show normalcy and freedom of movement. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) weekly column aims to provide a controlled narrative and maintain morale. TASS reports Sberbank's forecast for the Central Bank key rate at 16% by year-end, which could be used to project economic stability or controlled economic management. Новости Москвы (RF source) reports that "Stolichki" pharmacy network has been hacked and stores are closed across Moscow. This will likely be spun as an isolated incident or an external attack, to maintain public confidence in internal governance. TASS reports Putin stating banks should not worsen mortgages for citizens. This is a direct message aimed at maintaining public confidence in the financial system. Новости Москвы posts video about a new expensive district in Moscow, likely intended to boost public morale by projecting economic prosperity. TASS reports that the General Prosecutor's Office sent a case to court regarding the embezzlement of 519 million rubles from the Russian Pension Fund. RF will use this to show internal strength and anti-corruption efforts. ASTRA and Север.Реалии reporting on journalist Olga Komleva's sentencing will be used internally by RF to project strength and control, and externally to dismiss criticism as biased. TASS posts video of Putin discussing facial recognition payment systems, used to promote an image of Russia as a technologically advanced state with effective internal governance. Alex Parker Returns posts photo messages about a Sharia court administrator vacancy in Manchester (UK), which will be used by RF to highlight perceived Western cultural decline and internal instability, diverting from their own issues. Colonelcassad reports on a new educational program for SVO veterans in EAO. Новости Москвы posts a photo message about stress at work for Russians, attributing it to toxicity and leadership problems. RF source Глеб Никитин posts video about a soldier whose apartment was robbed and the police response, used to show the state's care for military personnel and domestic security. TASS reports that part of an office building collapsed in Yekaterinburg, implying internal infrastructure issues but no military relevance. TASS reports 15 workers were blocked on the upper floors of a residential building under construction in northern Moscow due to a fire, and 9 have been rescued, with 5 more being rescued. This will be framed as a civilian emergency response success. Новости Москвы posts video of two kittens, used as soft propaganda to project normalcy and empathy. Новости Москвы posts video of an alpaca being carried, used as soft propaganda to project normalcy and empathy. TASS reports 12 people independently left an office building in Yekaterinburg where a three-story collapse occurred. TASS reports 21 employees evacuated from the office building after collapse. TASS reports 24 people evacuated from neighboring premises after the building collapse. RF will highlight these events to demonstrate effective civilian emergency response and internal stability. TASS reports a criminal case was opened in Volgograd following the death of a teenager, presumably due to the detonation of a WWII-era munition. NEW: TASS reports Zoom fined 79.6 million rubles for non-compliance with Russian law on foreign internet entities. This indicates RF's continued intent to assert legal and sovereign control over foreign tech companies operating within its borders, to consolidate internal governance and information control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы reports blogger Areg Shchepikhin, kidnapped at Yaroslavsky station, will be held in pre-trial detention until 22 January 2026, indicating continued internal repression and legal action against perceived dissidents. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы posts a photo message proposing a monument to migrants at the location of "Big Clay No. 4," likely a social engineering/propaganda piece to address internal social dynamics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Courses of Action: RF will continue massed aerial attacks, primarily at night, combining missiles and Shahed drones to overwhelm UA air defenses and strike critical infrastructure and military targets deep within Ukraine. Ground offensives will continue to focus on the Pokrovsk axis with increasing intensity and potential for operational encirclement, supported by tactical drones and heavy artillery. RF will expand its cyber operations against critical civilian infrastructure (e.g., pharmacy networks, postal services) and tighten internal information controls to manage public dissent. They will continue to test NATO's resolve with border probes and diplomatic messaging. RF will also likely increase retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian civilian and penitentiary infrastructure in response to successful UA deep strikes on RF territory. RF will continue to leverage multi-domain operations, integrating ground assaults with drone support and information operations, and emphasizing internal consolidation through social and economic initiatives. RF will continue high-level counter-terrorism operations against perceived internal threats. RF will also likely intensify disinformation campaigns aimed at delegitimizing Ukrainian leadership and sowing distrust among Western allies, particularly concerning potential leadership changes in Ukraine. RF will continue to leverage social discontent within Ukraine to undermine morale and support for the government. RF will continue to highlight humanitarian issues in occupied territories, framing them as a result of Ukrainian actions. RF will likely amplify civilian emergencies within Russia (e.g., building collapses, fires) to demonstrate their capacity for civilian response and potentially divert attention from military setbacks. RF will continue to attempt to disrupt Ukraine's naval modernization efforts.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Persistent Massed Aerial Attacks: RF is now consistently launching large waves of mixed missile and drone attacks, challenging UA air defense capabilities across multiple axes simultaneously. Ballistic missile threats from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv indicate a new launch vector. Explosion reported in Pryluky, Chernihiv, by UA monitoring channels, aligning with a renewed ballistic threat. New intelligence indicates a new enemy UAV detected in Makariv region, Kyiv Oblast, suggesting adaptation of drone routes and targets. "Shaheds" reported moving west in Kharkiv Oblast and towards Pavlohrad in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating continued probing and potential new targets. The targeting of railway contact networks/substations indicates a tactical adaptation to disrupt UA deep strikes against RF logistics. RF claims shooting down 74 Ukrainian UAVs overnight, including 43 over Bryansk Oblast, indicating an adaptation to a higher volume of UA drone attacks on RF territory and improved air defense response. RF is increasingly relying on multiple waves of mixed drone and ballistic missile attacks to overwhelm air defenses, as evidenced by the 2 ballistic missile and 37 drone attack overnight. RF has intensified propaganda efforts surrounding UAV attacks on its territory, indicating an adaptation in information warfare to address growing domestic concerns. Colonelcassad (RF source) showcasing a Rosgvardia soldier shooting down a drone from a moving vehicle suggests tactical adaptation to counter low-altitude, agile UAV threats. TASS reports RF forces struck a temporary deployment point of AFU with Geran-2 UAVs in Zinovo, Sumy Oblast, indicating continued tactical use of UAVs for precision strikes in border regions. Voenkor Kotonok's video of "Geran" strikes confirms tactical adaptation in long-range drone employment. Belarusian MoD's report of destroying an unidentified UAV over Minsk with EW means indicates tactical adaptation in counter-UAV measures in the Belarusian context. Rybar (RF source) video demonstrates RF's adapted use of ZALA UAVs for maritime strike operations. Operatsiya Z (RF source) video shows drone strike on military vehicle in Chernihiv direction, demonstrating aerial strike capability. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) video of Tornado-S MLRS strikes highlights tactical adaptation in fire support, possibly using fewer systems for greater maneuverability. Военкор Котенок (RF source) attributing Kamenskoye strike to "Iskander" confirms tactical adaptation in missile deployment against urban areas. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports continued activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeast direction. Воин DV (RF source) video of high-precision drone strikes demonstrates tactical adaptation for effective precision targeting of armored vehicles. Rybar (RF source) video of alleged "Gerbera" UAVs over Lithuania indicates an adaptation in aerial reconnaissance/probing tactics near NATO borders. TASS reports that the Belarusian Investigative Committee stated the UAV that fell in Minsk was equipped with TNT and damaging elements and had Ukrainian inscriptions on its debris, indicating an adaptation in forensic analysis and official attribution of drone attacks. New ballistic missile threat from northeast direction, indicating adaptive launch vectors. New high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, southwest course, indicates adaptive targeting or flight paths. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts video showing drone operations including targeting and strikes, implying adaptive use of drones for reconnaissance and combat. Операция Z posts video providing drone footage of combat operations in the Pokrovsk direction, including successful strikes against enemy vehicles and armored personnel carriers, indicating adaptive use of air assets. Старше Эдды posts video showing claimed combat operations in the Sumy direction, including ground force activity and drone footage, indicating adaptive use of reconnaissance and strike drones. Два майора posts video from the Sumy direction showing RF ground operations and drone footage, consistent with adaptive use of drones for reconnaissance and targeting. MoD Russia posts video of FPV drone deployment with explosives, indicating adaptive use of drones for direct attack. ASTRA posts photo messages showing a large crater and debris, with a caption about 100 Russian aviation bombs "accidentally descending" on Russian and occupied Ukrainian territories in 2025. This indicates a tactical adaptation in RF air operations where a significant number of their own bombs are malfunctioning or being jettisoned, suggesting issues with aircraft, delivery systems, or munitions. UA Air Force issues "Attention!" alert, indicating adaptive air defense posture. Colonelcassad posts video of "Kinzhal" missile strikes on Kyiv from July 21st, implying continued air strikes using advanced missiles. Colonelcassad posts video of a "Molniya" (Lightning) drone striking an enemy assault group. MoD Russia posts video of servicemen training against enemy FPV drones, indicating adaptive counter-drone training. UA Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast, indicating continued adaptive use of KABs. Kadyrov_95 posts video showcasing successful drone operations by the "Izya" UAV unit of "AHMAT" special forces in the Kharkiv direction, showing aerial reconnaissance and targeted strikes on alleged Ukrainian militant hideouts and positions. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video from Sumy, claiming the city is being used as a testing ground for Russia's "Italmas" UAVs, showing an unidentified delta-wing drone in flight, indicating a new tactical adaptation in UAV development and deployment. NEW: TASS reports head of local administration Tatyana Ryabkina wounded after UA drone attack on service vehicle in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, implying continued UA drone activity in border regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS posts a video showing a Lancet UAV successfully identifying and striking three enemy artillery positions, including a 155mm artillery piece. This confirms RF's continued effective use of Lancet loitering munitions against UA artillery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a video visually confirming RF's active drone operations and likely targeted strikes against enemy positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Deep Cyber Operations & Internal Information Control: Targeting critical civilian infrastructure (Aeroflot, Zhukovsky Airport) indicates an expansion of cyber operations beyond military networks. Tightening of internal information and movement controls (mobile internet restrictions, chat transfers). RF government's decision not to support nutritional labeling on products suggests a continued focus on maintaining internal stability and consumer confidence over health initiatives. Moscow's implementation of fines for unregistered tenants indicates a continued adaptation to enhance internal security and population control amidst perceived threats. The attribution of forest fires to Ukrainian-controlled teenagers indicates an adaptation in blame-shifting and justification for internal security crackdowns. Sever.Realii's report implies RF may be randomly targeting individuals for repression to generate a wider deterrent effect, suggesting an adaptation in internal security tactics. RF officials are openly discussing the cancellation of major events like naval parades due to drone threats, which represents an adaptation in public messaging, acknowledging a domestic security vulnerability that was previously downplayed. The move towards the "Max" messenger in government and education suggests a strategic adaptation to reduce reliance on external communication platforms and increase internal control over information flow. The FSB preventing a terrorist attack in Rostov-on-Don highlights adaptive counter-terrorism measures against perceived internal threats. TASS reports temporary mobile internet restriction in Sverdlovsk Oblast, indicating a continued adaptation of internal control measures to specific regions. The detention of a Leningrad Oblast deputy for a Navalny post indicates an adaptation in political repression to target dissenting voices even at lower political levels. Moscow News reports banks withholding money from Russians for months, suggesting a new adaptation in financial controls or a symptom of broader economic issues impacting the population. The TASS report on corruption charges against a military representative officer indicates an adaptation to address internal corruption, likely to improve efficiency and maintain public trust, but also highlighting its continued presence. RF's nationalization of "Главпродукт" demonstrates an adaptation to increase state control over key economic sectors, possibly for greater resilience in wartime. The Sochi Airport delays could indicate adaptations in air traffic management due to security concerns or overcapacity. RF authorities are adapting to social and religious tensions by evaluating statements like Dina Rubina's, demonstrating a flexible approach to internal narrative management. ASTRA (RF source) confirms the prolonged recovery time for Aeroflot's IT systems, indicating a significant adaptation in managing the aftermath of a major cyberattack. Новости Москвы (RF source) and TASS (RF source) claiming stabilization of Aeroflot flights demonstrate adaptive public messaging to mitigate the impact of the cyberattack. TASS (RF source) reports Crimea's proposal to ban works by "foreign agents" indicates an adaptation to further tighten internal information and cultural controls. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) discussing year-long conscription suggests a potential adaptation in RF mobilization policy to sustain personnel needs. Рыбарь (RF source) video on "subversive migration" highlights an adaptive focus on internal security threats and their propaganda management. Colonelcassad reports a serious cyberattack on the French defense industry, indicating RF (or pro-RF) adaptation to target critical infrastructure in NATO countries. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) reports "civil servant" found work for those dismissed due to internet shutdowns, indicating adaptive internal control measures for economic impacts. Два майора promoting cryptocurrency donation bot for "special forces units" indicates an adaptation in military funding, leveraging alternative financial channels. Новости Москвы (RF source) reports that "Stolichki" pharmacy network has been hacked and stores are closed across Moscow, indicating RF's continued vulnerability to cyberattacks impacting civilian services and an adaptive response to manage the disruption. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports that Aeroflot system failures have ended, indicating an adaptive recovery process for critical systems. ASTRA posts photo messages of a Krasnoyarsk official suggesting remote workers losing jobs due to internet shutdowns should "go to the SVO," directly indicating an adaptive strategy to recruit military personnel from affected civilian sectors, potentially reflecting economic pressure and social control. TASS reports Putin stating banks should not worsen mortgages for citizens by introducing additional fees, indicating an adaptive measure to control public sentiment and economic stability. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo messages about a detained individual planning an explosion, highlighting the hybrid threat from alleged Ukrainian-recruited agents within RF. This confirms a C2 focus on countering such threats. Colonelcassad posts video of the FSB operation in Rostov-on-Don, detailing the apprehension and discovery of explosives. This indicates an adaptive and effective internal security response. Kotsnews posts video of individuals being apprehended, captioned "Teenage arsonists will be tried for terrorism." This indicates an adaptive response to alleged sabotage, seeking to deter such actions through legal means. TASS reports that the General Prosecutor's Office sent a case to court regarding the embezzlement of 519 million rubles from the Russian Pension Fund, indicating an adaptive measure to address internal financial issues. ASTRA and Север.Реалии reporting on journalist Olga Komleva's sentencing indicates an adaptive approach to suppressing dissenting voices within the RF information space. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video on the hack of "Stolichki" and "Neopharm" pharmacy networks in Russia, confirming further successful cyberattacks against Russian civilian infrastructure, which will necessitate adaptive responses from RF. TASS posts video of Putin discussing facial recognition payment systems, confirming an adaptive move towards advanced surveillance and financial control technologies within Russia. Операция Z reports on a hacker attack affecting large pharmacy chains in Moscow and St. Petersburg. TASS reports Washington established the highest tariff level since the early 20th century. This is an adaptive economic measure from the US. TASS reports a criminal case opened in Kislovodsk after a landslide, indicating an adaptive legal response to natural disasters. TASS reports a fire blocked 15 workers on the upper floors of a residential building under construction in northern Moscow, and 9 have been rescued, with 5 more still being rescued. This indicates an adaptive emergency response. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports large pharmacy networks in Moscow and St. Petersburg have been hacked, requiring an adaptive response from RF. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the Moscow clinic network "Family Doctor" was subjected to a hacker attack, necessitating an adaptive response from RF. TASS reports a man was detained in St. Petersburg for throwing a smoke bomb into a bank branch, with no casualties. "Почта России" (Russian Post) is experiencing a nationwide system failure, with its website being down, indicating ongoing cyber vulnerabilities impacting civilian services. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports hackers have taken down the "Почта России" (Russian Post) website, confirming a new adaptive cyber operation affecting RF civilian services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Zoom fined 79.6 million rubles for non-compliance with Russian law, indicating RF's adaptive use of legal means to enforce information control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы reports blogger Areg Shchepikhin will be held in pre-trial detention until 22 January 2026, indicating adaptive internal security measures to address dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы posts a photo message proposing a monument to migrants at the location of "Big Clay No. 4," likely a social engineering/propaganda piece to address internal social dynamics and potentially signal new social policies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Continued Ground Force Adaptation: Continued use of small, rapid assault groups, and ongoing development of improvised vehicle protection and robotic ground systems. Increased offensive activity across multiple Eastern axes, maintaining pressure on UA forces, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis. RF assault groups advancing in forests near Melovoye, Kharkiv Oblast, suggests a tactical adaptation to forested terrain. The observed operational methods of the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (Vostok Group) in the South Donetsk direction, as shown in the Colonelcassad video, indicate a continued focus on using reconnaissance assets to identify and target enemy logistics, suggesting an adaptation towards interdiction tactics. RF use of FPV drones and KABs in Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, demonstrates adaptive targeting and weapon delivery against civilian areas. The attack on a penitentiary facility in Zaporizhzhia Oblast shows an adaptation in targeting, expanding beyond traditional military or energy infrastructure to civilian detention facilities. The claimed encirclement of UA forces in Kreminna forests indicates a localized tactical adaptation to seize initiative in specific forested terrain. The use of drones to support ground operations in the Vremivka direction demonstrates continued combined arms adaptation. Tactical adjustments in training for the 81st Brigade, focusing on frontline realities, indicates a friendly adaptation to evolving combat conditions. Operatsiya Z reporting continued encirclement and storming of Kupyansk to cut logistics indicates an adaptation to targeting UA supply lines in this sector. RF sources ([Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition]) videos from Maliivka, if verified, show tactical adaptation in urban/rural combat scenarios, including use of captured equipment. DNR People's Militia (RF source) claims of capturing 3 UA National Guard soldiers near Dimitrov indicates continued tactical adaptations for taking prisoners during advances. Basurin (RF source) shows Tornado-S MLRS systems firing, specifically TOS-1A "Solntsepyok," which is designed for thermobaric rockets against fortified positions. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) provides a map of the Siversk direction, showing ongoing localized ground operations and adaptation of airborne forces to this terrain. Two Mayors (RF source) show testing of new Russian armored vehicles, demonstrating continued adaptation in ground vehicle modernization and survivability (e.g., against drones). Voin DV (RF source) video shows 40th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade assault unit training, indicating continued preparation for offensive ground operations. Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) provides aerial thermal footage of a tactical vehicle, likely a BTR, indicating continued RF reconnaissance and targeting of UA ground assets. Colonelcassad's video showing RF troops in urban combat environments highlights tactical adaptations for close-quarters fighting in destroyed areas. Voin DV (RF source) claims "Vostok" Group liberated settlement of Temirovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, supported by drone footage showing strikes on what appear to be civilian structures within a village. Basurin (RF source) presents a historical photo and caption about Peter I and the Russian navy, indirectly indicating RF's continued naval aspirations and capabilities. Операция Z (RF source, citing Военкоры Русской Весны) video from Maliivka indicates adaptation in ground offensive tactics. Сливочный каприз (RF source) map and video on Temirovka liberation confirms RF ground offensive capabilities in Zaporizhzhia. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows UA 63rd Mechanized Brigade assaulting an enemy dugout and capturing two mercenaries, indicating adaptive UA assault tactics. TASS reports RF MoD claims liberation of Temirovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Novoukrainka in Donetsk People's Republic, confirming tactical adaptations for seizing and consolidating territory. Операция Z (RF source) confirms liberation of Temirovka and Novoukrainka, implying adaptive combined arms operations. Военкор Котенок (RF source) confirms liberation of Novoukrainka and Temirovka. Kotsnews and Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reporting "Battle for Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad" implies ongoing pressure and potential for further territorial losses in this key sector. Сливочный каприз (RF source) posting a tactical map of "Krasnoarmeysk-Vladimirovka" operation indicates adaptive planning for expanding offensive objectives in the Pokrovsk direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts video of aftermath of an artillery strike or explosion in a wooded area, showing destroyed trench/dugout position and likely human remains. The audio describes significant casualties, indicating effective RF ground engagement. Операция Z posts video providing drone footage of combat operations in the Pokrovsk direction, including successful strikes against enemy vehicles and armored personnel carriers, indicating effective tactical C2. Сили оборони Півдня України posts video showcasing a Ukrainian 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzer engaging targets, demonstrating continued RF engagement against UA artillery. Старше Эдды posts video showing claimed combat operations in the Sumy direction, including ground force activity and drone footage, indicating adaptive RF ground tactics. Два майора posts video from the Sumy direction showing RF ground operations and drone footage, consistent with adaptive RF ground operations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of two Ukrainian infantrymen attacking and capturing Russian assault troops. This demonstrates RF tactical C2 failures in containing a small-unit UA assault. TASS posts video of claimed liberation of Temirovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, showing ground operations and explosions, indicating adapted ground offensive tactics. Colonelcassad posts video of drone footage from the Donbas, highlighting military operations, suggesting adapted ground reconnaissance and strike tactics. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts drone reconnaissance footage from the southwest DND region, focusing on a settlement and showing a fire/explosion event, indicating adapted ground tactics for urban clearance. RF source БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС posts video of Russian forces performing combat coordination on motorcycles, indicating adaptive training for rapid ground maneuver. STERNENKO (UA source) posts video of Phoenix unit destroying enemy motorcyclists, indicating RF's adaptive use of motorcycles for rapid advances. Kotsnews reports the liberation of Temirovka. Colonelcassad reports that Russian troops have entered Krasnoarmeysk, with initial DRG infiltration occurring last week, and the situation for UA forces in Myrnohrad is also deteriorating. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video showing evacuation under continuous fire, with a military vehicle displaying a "300" casualty marker. NEW: Colonelcassad posts video of a Lancet loitering munition striking a UA engineering vehicle of the 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade near Pokrovskoe, indicating adaptive targeting of UA support vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Операция Z reports Russian army entered Kolodezi, advancing towards Lyman, indicating adaptive ground operations in this sector. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) NEW: Воин DV posts drone footage visually confirming effective RF engagement and casualties on ground targets, indicating continued adaptive ground operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Shift in Attribution Narrative for Civilian Incidents: RF is increasingly and explicitly blaming UA for civilian casualties in occupied territories and internal RF incidents (e.g., Donetsk Business Center, forest fires), likely to justify RF actions. The likely use of staged POW testimony (Colonelcassad video) is a tactical adaptation in information warfare to undermine UA legitimacy and morale. RF MoD claims 74 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions is a narrative to portray RF as effectively defending its territory from "terrorist attacks." The attack on the penitentiary facility in Zaporizhzhia will be spun by RF as a deliberate Ukrainian attack on civilian infrastructure. Basurin (RF source) promoting historical claims about Ukrainian atrocities on "Day in History" (ДЕНЬ в ИСТОРИИ) indicates a continued effort to justify current RF actions through historical revisionism. Operatyvnyi ZSU (UA source) video of a Donetsk resident complaining about Ukrainian bombardments, water, and energy blockades serves RF narrative blaming UA for suffering in occupied territories. Mash na Donbasse and ASTRA reports of damage to Donetsk Business Center from UA drones serve this narrative. Governor of Belgorod Oblast repeating "inhumane crimes against peaceful citizens" narrative. Operatsiya Z (RF source) provides multiple video and photo messages of fires and explosions in Rostov Oblast, explicitly blaming Ukrainian drones for attacks on freight and passenger trains at Salsk station, reinforcing the victimization narrative. Mash na Donbasse blaming AFU for Donetsk power outages. Sever.Realii's report on Kunis could be used to illustrate heavy-handed tactics by Russian authorities, which RF could frame as necessary security measures. Dva Mayora (RF source) explicitly blaming Ukraine for "mass drone attack" on Donetsk continues the victim narrative. TASS video of Manhattan emergency response for mass shooting could be used to highlight internal Western instability and distract from Ukraine. RF sources ([Операция Z] Военкоры Русской Весны]) claim strike on Kamenskoye hit a "military rehabilitation center" and blame the city's mayor for "giving it up," indicating an intent to legitimize strikes on civilian infrastructure by falsely labeling them as military targets and sowing internal distrust in UA. RF FSB preventing a terrorist attack in Rostov-on-Don will be used to reinforce the narrative of Ukraine's "terrorist" actions within Russia. TASS video confirms FSB detention of a Central Asian citizen who confessed to preparing a terror attack in Rostov-on-Don, supporting the "Ukrainian agents" narrative. Sever.Realii's report on detention of a Leningrad Oblast deputy for a Navalny post will be framed internally as necessary state security, while internationally it will highlight suppression of dissent. Voenkor Kotonok video highlighting lonely elderly people, ostensibly humanitarian, is a soft propaganda piece appealing to empathy, perhaps to divert from war issues. TASS reports Politico's claims about Zelenskyy's panic due to declining popularity, aiming to sow discord within Ukraine and delegitimize its leadership. Moscow News (RF source) reports that banks are depriving Russians of access to their money for months, which could be framed as a necessary measure for financial stability or as a consequence of Western sanctions, to manage public discontent. TASS reports Harvard is ready to pay $500M to settle disputes with Trump administration, possibly to highlight political pressure tactics in the US. Mash na Donbasse (RF source) explicitly blames UA for attacking a residential complex in Donetsk, fueling the civilian victimization narrative. Colonelcassad (RF source) posts photos showing drone damage to a business center and residential complex in Donetsk, supporting the narrative of UA targeting civilian areas. Filolog v zasade (RF source) reporting on machine gun boxes being freely sold in Donetsk could be used by RF to blame UA for illicit arms trade or lack of control in occupied territories. RF sources ([Операция Z] Военкоры Русской Весны]) describe the FSB prevention of an assassination attempt on the "Wolves of Da Vinci" commander as a "circus," aiming to discredit Ukrainian security services. TASS reports a gas cylinder explosion in a correctional colony in Volgograd Oblast, and could frame it as an internal security threat or sabotage if it benefits their narrative, or downplay it as an an accident. TASS reports a military representative officer is accused of bribery in state defense order fulfillment, indicating RF actively fighting corruption, contrasting with alleged UA corruption, to bolster their image. Fighterbomber's recruitment video is a direct propaganda effort to boost military personnel numbers, framing military service positively. Pushilin (RF source) blaming UA shelling for power/water outages in DPR aims to paint UA as targeting civilians. Operatyvnyi ZSU and ASTRA reports of two RF sapper deaths during UAV demining in Rostov Oblast will be framed by RF as further evidence of UA "terrorism" and justify retaliatory strikes. TASS reports US proposal to buy Komandorsky Islands is framed as an absurd and hostile move, designed to reinforce anti-Western sentiment. TASS reports Butina's statement about her conviction being "agony of Ukro-regime," aiming to portray UA as weak and desperate. ASTRA reports civilian death in Belgorod from drone attack, which RF will use to justify further actions. Sever.Realii reports on the conviction for the cross-shaped lamp in Arkhangelsk, which RF will frame as maintaining social order and traditional values, while externally it will highlight repression. TASS reports on the evaluation of Dina Rubina's statements, reflecting RF's efforts to align with global Muslim sentiment and justify actions related to Gaza. TASS (RF source) reports wildfires in Los Angeles, likely framing Western countries as facing internal crises. ASTRA (RF source) reporting on Aeroflot cyberattack losses and recovery time aims to manage the narrative around infrastructure vulnerabilities. Новости Москвы (RF source) and TASS (RF source) claiming stabilization of Aeroflot flights demonstrate adaptive public messaging to mitigate the impact of the cyberattack. TASS (RF source) reports Crimea's proposal to ban works by "foreign agents" aims to portray RF as protecting its cultural sovereignty. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) discussing year-long conscription aims to normalize long-term military service. Рыбарь (RF source) video on "subversive migration" aims to stoke fear and justify internal security measures. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) video of Vyacheslav Volodin promoting military service and a sense of national unity and superiority. TASS (RF source) reports Moldova intends to remove "Moldovagaz" from supply, which may be framed as a blow to RF's economic influence in the region, potentially causing concern. TASS reports Saldo's claim of repelled UA landing attempt on Tendrovska Spit, aiming to portray RF defensive success and UA failures. ASTRA reports 22 killed and 85 wounded in Ukraine due to RF shelling (Zelenskyy's statement). TASS reports CNN stating UA forces are exhausted and facing extreme personnel shortages on the frontline, a direct RF information operation to demoralize UA and its supporters. Kotsnews reports "another terrorist from Central Asia." Два майора claiming the Minsk drone was Ukrainian with Western European components and Ukrainian markings is a clear disinformation attempt to blame Ukraine for the incident and potentially implicate NATO. TASS reports Peskov stating Russia will continue the "special military operation" despite Trump's statements, a strong messaging point to project unwavering resolve. TASS reports Peskov rejecting claims of RF attacking the correctional colony in Zaporizhzhia, aiming to control the narrative and deflect blame. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts photo message titled "Ukraine is rapidly breaking into the leaders of the European economy. Good will come!", which is highly sarcastic propaganda mocking Ukrainian economic claims, ironically intended to portray UA as economically weak. ТАСС reports Peskov stating RF and USA are not in contact regarding NST, due to the state of bilateral relations, emphasizing Western diplomatic failures. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) posts photo message of a "Ukrainian General" in London, mocking Ukrainian leadership and their perceived detachment from the conflict. TASS reports Peskov confirming Kremlin noted Trump's statement on "reducing terms" but SVO continues, explicitly reinforcing RF's intent to dictate the conflict's pace and outcome for information operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts a weekly author's column image, likely a propaganda piece for internal consumption. UA source Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) posts photo messages from Kamenskoye, depicting cleanup after a night missile strike. RF will use this to claim successful targeting, or to shift blame for civilian casualties. TASS reports Washington Post columnist David Ignatius believes Zelenskyy made a "tragic mistake" in trying to strip NABU and SAP of independence. RF will amplify this to portray UA as corrupt and undermine its international standing. TASS posts photo messages reporting that three opposition parties in Moldova have submitted documents to the Central Election Commission to register a bloc advocating for the restoration of relations with Russia. This will be used by RF to demonstrate perceived growing support for Russia in its near abroad. TASS posts video messages highlighting 60,000+ fatalities in Gaza, as part of RF's broader information campaign to highlight perceived Western/Israeli atrocities and divert attention from Ukraine, aligning with a victim narrative. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo messages about a detained citizen from Central Asia, recruited by Ukrainian special services, who rented an apartment to blow up an officer. This is a direct RF propaganda effort to portray Ukraine as a state sponsor of terrorism. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts photo message with caption "Residents of the emergency building are offered to go to war in exchange for resettlement," indicating a propaganda message linking military service to social benefits. Басурин о главном posts photo of an angry Donald Trump, likely to project a narrative of internal Western political discontent. Kotsnews posts video showing individuals being apprehended, captioned "Teenage arsonists will be tried for terrorism." This serves to justify internal crackdowns by linking them to Ukrainian-directed terrorism. TASS reports Putin stated banks should not worsen mortgages for citizens. Народная милиция ДНР posts video of a religious ceremony and testimony from a man with a Russian flag on his sleeve, discussing faith and suffering in Donbas. This is soft propaganda to humanize the conflict and promote religious/nationalistic values. Moscow News posts video of a new expensive district in Moscow, likely soft propaganda to project normalcy and economic stability. Военкор Котенок posts video from Iran's Intelligence Ministry, likely used by RF to frame a narrative about the global fight against "foreign agents" and "terrorism," mirroring their own internal security concerns. Alex Parker Returns posts photo messages about a Sharia court administrator vacancy in Manchester (UK), which will be used by RF to promote a narrative of Western cultural decline and internal instability, diverting from their own issues. TASS reports on the General Prosecutor's Office sending a case to court regarding embezzlement from the Russian Pension Fund. RF will frame this as successful anti-corruption efforts. ASTRA and Север.Реалии reporting on journalist Olga Komleva's sentencing will be used internally by RF to project strength and control, and externally to dismiss criticism as biased. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts a collage of portraits of four individuals with a caption implying they have been "successfully demobilized" (likely killed), which is a UA propaganda effort to highlight RF losses. RF will counter this by dismissing it or portraying it as Ukrainian barbarism. РБК-Україна posts photo messages showing damage to a tax office building in Sumy Oblast due to an enemy attack, which RF will use to demonstrate continued Ukrainian suffering and justify their actions. TASS reports US and UK organized a secret meeting in the Alps to discuss replacing Zelenskyy. This is a clear RF disinformation campaign, aimed at delegitimizing UA leadership. TASS reports Zaluzhny was nominated for Ukrainian president at the secret meeting. TASS reports "Ukrainian presidential elections" took place at an Alpine resort. Alex Parker Returns posts photo messages containing derogatory content about Shoigu's son. Два майора posts a map regarding declining global interest in the Russia-Ukraine war versus Israel. RF source Операция Z (citing Russian Foreign Intelligence Service) reports that the US and UK secretly discussed replacing Zelenskyy with Zaluzhny in the Alps. This is a significant disinformation campaign aiming to sow discord within Ukraine's leadership and delegitimize it. RF source Kotsnews posts photo messages stating "SVR: A new president of Ukraine was chosen in the Alps," reinforcing the disinformation campaign about replacing Zelenskyy. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts photo messages claiming "elections" for the President of Ukraine were held at an Alpine resort, citing the SVR (Russian Foreign Intelligence Service). NEW: STERNENKO (UA source) posts a video titled "Katsapy are falling and dying. Dying and falling," visually confirming RF casualties. This is a direct counter-narrative to RF claims of UA weakness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: РБК-Україна posts video featuring an expert discussing potential Russian breakthroughs near Pokrovsk, and challenges of UA troop concentration and redeployment. This directly highlights UA's perceived weaknesses in troop numbers and ability to reinforce, which RF will leverage in their information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы reports blogger Areg Shchepikhin will be held in pre-trial detention, and the video shows him expressing a desire to communicate with his "brothers" in prison. This can be used by RF to depict internal Ukrainian dissent or anti-mobilization sentiment, although the context is of a blogger, not a soldier. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo messages showing graphic images of a pregnant woman and unborn child killed in an RF strike in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This is a direct counter-narrative to RF claims of only targeting military objectives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo message stating "Occupants are creating a 'death strip' from the Dnipro to the front line in the Kherson direction," aiming to highlight perceived RF aggression and threat to civilians. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports a billionaire close to Abramovich lost an appeal against sanctions in the UK, which RF will use to highlight continued Western pressure but also its limitations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Testing NATO: The reported flight of a Russian "Gerbera" UAV over Vilnius, if confirmed, represents a significant escalation in direct Russian probing of NATO airspace. TASS reports Estonian MFA summoned Russian Charge d'Affaires to protest alleged border violation by RF border vessel, indicating RF is actively probing NATO borders. Dva Mayora confirms Estonian MFA protest, reinforcing this pattern. The unidentified UAV over Minsk, if attributable to UA or a third party, will be leveraged by RF/Belarus to justify increased security or military cooperation. Север.Реалии (RF source) confirms Belarusian MoD's statement on drone "suppression" over Minsk, indicating adaptive air defense measures. TASS reports Moldova intends to remove "Moldovagaz" from supply, indicating adaptive measures in energy security for Moldova. Colonelcassad reports a major cyberattack on the French defense industry, suggesting a direct tactical adaptation to target NATO industrial capabilities. Rybar (RF source) video of alleged "Gerbera" UAVs over Lithuania explicitly serves to test and signal to NATO. Два майора claiming the Minsk drone was Ukrainian with Western components is an adaptation in information warfare to attribute incidents to Ukraine and potentially implicate NATO. TASS reports that the Belarusian Investigative Committee stated the UAV that fell in Minsk was equipped with TNT and damaging elements and had Ukrainian inscriptions on its debris, indicating an aggressive adaptation in attributing incidents to escalate tensions. New video from ASTRA shows drone wreckage with police/military personnel, consistent with the Minsk drone incident. This indicates an adaptive response to attributing the incident. TASS posts video of the Belarusian Investigative Committee investigating the Minsk drone, showing debris with Ukrainian inscription, consistent with adaptive attribution. Рыбарь posts a photo message claiming "Abrams as Air Defense", which could be interpreted as a tactical adaptation in information warfare to mock perceived Western military capabilities or highlight resource misallocation by NATO allies, to test NATO resilience through information warfare. TASS reports Norway's interim chargé d'affaires was summoned to the RF Foreign Ministry and handed a protest note over restrictions on Russian fishing vessels. This suggests an adaptive move by RF to challenge international norms. Военкор Котенок posts photo message from Kaliningrad borders with flight tracking, which could be used to highlight NATO monitoring. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports largest military data leak in history occurred in France, which could be exploited by RF to highlight Western vulnerabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports an expert from the field of unmanned aviation, Kuzyakin, stating the drone in Minsk was assembled in Ukraine and likely deviated due to a navigation error. This reinforces RF's narrative of Ukrainian drone activity near NATO/Belarusian borders. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Positive International Relations: TASS reporting on Russian schoolchildren's letter to Kim Jong Un is an effort to showcase positive international ties, particularly with non-Western aligned states, and to normalize the DPRK relationship. Colonelcassad denying "fake news" about seeking meeting with Xi Jinping aims to maintain a perception of controlled, strategic foreign policy. TASS reports Cambodia rejects Thailand's ceasefire violation claims, indicating a focus on broader international relations. TASS reports China will welcome improved relations between Russia and US, promoting a narrative of broader geopolitical harmony. Alex Parker Returns photo of Roscosmos head in US highlights continued space cooperation with US, portraying Russia as a responsible international partner. TASS reports the first flight from Pyongyang landed in Moscow, reinforcing positive DPRK-RF relations. TASS reports Sergey Mironov suggesting Russia could buy back Alaska, aims to project confidence and respond to perceived US aggression. Рыбарь posts an analysis piece titled "Sahel - the point of restarting Russian policy in Africa," indicating Russia's strategic interest in the Sahel region and its foreign policy intentions beyond Ukraine. NEW: Rybar reports "Azerbaijan arms the Armed Forces of Ukraine," which, if true, presents a challenge to RF's diplomatic efforts in the region and implies a new source of aid for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Governance: RF government's rejection of food labeling for sugar/fat content (TASS) can be framed as prioritizing economic stability for producers over public health transparency, a narrative that avoids perceived governmental overreach. The announcement of pension increases for working pensioners from August 1st will be utilized to bolster the narrative of the RF government's commitment to social welfare and economic stability for its citizens. Operational Z's report on migrant communities and Sharia law will be used to justify tightening internal controls and promote a strong, unified state narrative. The Moscow fine for unregistered tenants will be presented as a measure to enhance public safety and order. News from Moscow regarding remote work preferences highlights a focus on internal social dynamics, which RF may frame as a positive (flexibility) or negative (economic control) depending on the narrative. TASS reporting on Shanghai police action against fake goods highlights internal law enforcement effectiveness in a key partner nation. TASS reporting on Soyuzmultfilm's legal loss in the US could be framed as a minor setback or as an example of Western legal unfairness. Basurin's discussion on military leadership challenges and the need for younger commanders is likely an attempt to manage expectations and project a proactive approach to perceived internal issues. TASS promoting production work for higher education points aims to foster a narrative of national dedication to labor and economic strength. Archangel Spetsnaz's focus on "Faith" aims to bolster spiritual morale among military and the public. Nizhny Novgorod Governor promoting religious traditions (baptisms) aims to foster social cohesion and traditional values. The vacancy for Chairman of the Supreme Court, reported by TASS, indicates the perceived stability and normal functioning of high-level government institutions. Kotsnews mentioning "confrontation in orbit" hints at RF attempts to promote a narrative of technological parity or superiority in space warfare. TASS reports temporary mobile internet restriction in Sverdlovsk Oblast, which will likely cause public inconvenience and potential dissatisfaction. Moscow News featuring a baby wallaby birth is soft propaganda to project normalcy and deflect from war issues. Moscow News (RF source) reports banks withholding access to money, which will likely cause significant public frustration and potentially lead to economic instability. The news of a contract soldier dying within a week might negatively impact recruitment efforts or public perception of safety within the military. TASS reports gas cylinder explosion in Volgograd correctional colony, potentially leading to public concern about safety in state institutions. Filolog v zasade (RF source) reporting on illicit arms sales in Donetsk city center will likely cause concern for public safety and internal security among residents. TASS reports a military representative officer accused of bribery, framed as RF combating internal corruption to maintain integrity. TASS reports the state ownership of "Главпродукт," aiming to highlight centralized control and stability of essential sectors. TASS reports flight delays in Sochi, which RF will downplay as minor inconvenience. Sever.Realii reports on conviction for religious symbol, RF will frame as maintaining order. TASS reports on the evaluation of Dina Rubina's statements, managing public opinion on sensitive social issues. TASS (RF source) reports Crimea's proposal to ban works by "foreign agents" aims to highlight centralized control and stability of essential sectors. TASS (RF source) reports on UK Supreme Court rejection of a businessman's sanctions appeal, aiming to portray the resilience of Russian elite despite Western pressure. Басурин о главном reports senators introduced three bills supporting SVO participants and their families, indicating efforts to promote state care and bolster internal morale. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) posts messages regarding job reassignments for those affected by internet shutdowns, which will be spun as state care but reveals underlying control mechanisms and economic impacts. Два майора promoting cryptocurrency donation bot for "special forces units," indicating continued localized fundraising for military support. Новости Москвы (RF source) posts video of a blogger walking 100,000 steps from Moscow center, serving as soft propaganda to show normalcy and freedom of movement. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) weekly column aims to provide a controlled narrative and maintain morale. TASS reports Sberbank's forecast for the Central Bank key rate at 16% by year-end, which could be used to project economic stability or controlled economic management. Новости Москвы (RF source) reports that "Stolichki" pharmacy network has been hacked and stores are closed across Moscow. This will likely be spun as an isolated incident or an external attack, to maintain public confidence in internal governance. TASS reports Putin stating banks should not worsen mortgages for citizens. This is a direct message aimed at maintaining public confidence in the financial system. Новости Москвы posts video about a new expensive district in Moscow, likely intended to boost public morale by projecting economic prosperity. TASS reports that the General Prosecutor's Office sent a case to court regarding the embezzlement of 519 million rubles from the Russian Pension Fund. RF will use this to show internal strength and anti-corruption efforts. ASTRA and Север.Реалии reporting on journalist Olga Komleva's sentencing will be used internally by RF to project strength and control, and externally to dismiss criticism as biased. TASS posts video of Putin discussing facial recognition payment systems, used to promote an image of Russia as a technologically advanced state with effective internal governance. Alex Parker Returns posts photo messages about a Sharia court administrator vacancy in Manchester (UK), which will be used by RF to highlight perceived Western cultural decline and internal instability, diverting from their own issues. Colonelcassad reports on a new educational program for SVO veterans in EAO. Новости Москвы posts a photo message about stress at work for Russians, attributing it to toxicity and leadership problems. RF source Глеб Никитин posts video about a soldier whose apartment was robbed and the police response, used to show the state's care for military personnel and domestic security. TASS reports that part of an office building collapsed in Yekaterinburg, implying internal infrastructure issues but no military relevance. TASS reports 15 workers were blocked on the upper floors of a residential building under construction in northern Moscow due to a fire, and 9 have been rescued, with 5 more being rescued. This will be framed as a civilian emergency response success. Новости Москвы posts video of two kittens, used as soft propaganda to project normalcy and empathy. Новости Москвы posts video of an alpaca being carried, used as soft propaganda to project normalcy and empathy. TASS reports 12 people independently left an office building in Yekaterinburg where a three-story collapse occurred. TASS reports 21 employees evacuated from the office building after collapse. TASS reports 24 people evacuated from neighboring premises after the building collapse. RF will highlight these events to demonstrate effective civilian emergency response and internal stability. TASS reports a criminal case was opened in Volgograd following the death of a teenager, presumably due to the detonation of a WWII-era munition. NEW: TASS reports Zoom fined 79.6 million rubles for non-compliance with Russian law on foreign internet entities. This indicates RF's continued intent to assert legal and sovereign control over foreign tech companies operating within its borders, to consolidate internal governance and information control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы reports blogger Areg Shchepikhin, kidnapped at Yaroslavsky station, will be held in pre-trial detention until 22 January 2026, indicating continued internal repression and legal action against perceived dissidents. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы posts a photo message proposing a monument to migrants at the location of "Big Clay No. 4," which, if implemented, signals a shift in RF's public messaging or policy towards migrant populations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Ammunition & Fuel: Sufficient to maintain current high operational tempo. The strike on the Shostka ammunition plant suggests RF is actively targeting UA production capabilities. Gasoline exports restricted until August 31, likely a domestic management decision. ASTRA reports a drone attack on a railway station in Salsk, Rostov Oblast, resulting in one fatality. This indicates a disruption to RF logistical flow, specifically via railway, requiring rerouting or repair resources. The confirmed fire at Salsk railway station and subsequent suspension of train movement, coupled with the reported fire at a traction substation in Orlovsky, Rostov Oblast, represents significant, verified disruptions to RF railway logistics. This will necessitate immediate and substantial resource allocation for repairs and rerouting, potentially impacting materiel flow to the front. ASTRA's report of drone hits on two tank cars and a locomotive confirms direct targeting of fuel and equipment, intensifying the logistical impact. Visual confirmation of sustained, large-scale fires at Salsk railway station (Шеф Hayabusa) indicates a prolonged disruption to rail logistics at this critical node, likely requiring significant RF resources for damage control and repair, potentially impacting resupply rates to southern fronts. RZD reports at least 9 passenger trains delayed due to Salsk attack, indicating a broader impact on rail logistics and traffic management. TASS confirms train movement through Salsk station has been resumed, indicating rapid RF repair or bypass efforts, but the initial disruption was significant. The additional report of a military resource base burning in Rostov Oblast further suggests impacts on RF logistics and sustainment capabilities. TASS reporting on a call to reduce airline ticket refund times implies a response to the Aeroflot IT system crash, indicating efforts to manage the financial and customer service impact of the cyberattack, which has indirect logistical implications for civilian travel. Operatyvnyi ZSU and ASTRA reports of two sapper deaths during UAV demining in Rostov Oblast indicate continued post-strike logistical challenges for RF. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms fuel cistern fire, implying significant logistical loss of fuel for RF. Филолог в zasade (RF source) reports fundraising for drone components for reconnaissance units, indicating localized and continuous logistical needs. Воин DV (RF source) video of drone strikes targeting armored vehicles suggests continued and effective use of munitions against ground targets, requiring consistent resupply. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) video of UAV attack on Salsk railway station confirms direct targeting of logistics and potentially fuel supplies. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts video of aftermath of an artillery strike in a wooded area, indicating effective RF use of artillery and continued ammunition consumption. Сили оборони Півдня України posts video showcasing a Ukrainian 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzer engaging targets, demonstrating continued RF artillery engagement and ammunition expenditure. ASTRA posts photo messages showing a large crater and debris, with a caption about 100 Russian aviation bombs "accidentally descending" on Russian and occupied Ukrainian territories in 2025. This indicates a potential issue with RF munition reliability or storage, which could impact future offensive operations. Mash na Donbasse reports car washes in DNR will be disconnected from the central water supply, indicating water scarcity and potential logistical challenges for RF in occupied territories. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of a fire at a gas station in Kursk Oblast, indicating a loss of fuel for RF. CyberBoroshno reports structuring all railway damage, indicating a focus on assessing logistical impacts. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports hackers have taken down the "Почта России" (Russian Post) website, indicating a new widespread disruption to a key civilian service within Russia, impacting broader economic sustainment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Personnel: Continued reliance on recruitment from penal colonies and high-paying contracts. Persistent internal appeals for specific equipment (drones, Starlink) indicate localized logistical needs despite overall sufficiency. Reports of deceased/missing soldiers being declared AWOL could fuel significant public and military discontent. Colonelcassad's video on "ukhilyanty" in Kharkiv suggests the RF is facing significant resistance to forced conscription efforts within occupied or contested territories, indicating a challenge to personnel sustainment. Reports of the Russian government increasing pensions for working pensioners from August 1st may be an effort to boost public morale and perceived economic stability amidst internal security and economic challenges. Operational Z's report on migrant communities' desire for Sharia law highlights a potential internal security and social cohesion challenge affecting personnel readiness and stability. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) appeal for airborne personnel near Chasiv Yar to contact a bot suggests localized personnel coordination or recruitment needs. The appeal from the 7th Airborne Division for drones and Starlink indicates specific resource shortfalls for reconnaissance and communication, affecting unit effectiveness. Basurin's discussion of the high age and lack of combat experience among some military leaders, and the proposal for younger, battle-hardened individuals, highlights a perceived personnel quality issue within RF leadership, which could impact operational effectiveness. TASS reporting on including production work in higher education applications indicates an effort to bolster the industrial workforce, likely to support the war economy and sustain production capacity. The vacancy for Chairman of the Supreme Court, reported by TASS, indicates ongoing personnel changes at high levels of RF governance, though not directly military. The FSB preventing a terror attack on a high-ranking military official in Rostov-on-Don implies an ongoing threat to RF military leadership, impacting personnel security. Sever.Realii reports detention of a Leningrad Oblast deputy, indicating continued internal crackdowns which may impact broader public sentiment and social stability, indirectly affecting personnel sustainment. Moscow News (RF source) reports that a contract soldier died within a week, indicating high personnel losses and the dangers faced by new recruits. The two sapper deaths in Rostov Oblast during UAV demining will impact RF combat engineer personnel and potentially morale. Colonelcassad's video "The best job in the world!" is a recruitment/morale booster, reflecting continued personnel needs. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) discussing year-long conscription suggests a potential shift in RF personnel sustainment strategies. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) video of Vyacheslav Volodin promoting military service, indicating continued efforts to boost personnel numbers and morale. Tsapliyenko_Ukraine Fights reports that 150,000 Ukrainians of conscription age receive social benefits of €1.3 billion annually in Germany, with the CSU party demanding a cessation of these payments, arguing they should work or join the Ukrainian army, which is a potential source of personnel that RF will highlight as UA's inability to mobilize effectively. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports two Ukrainian assault soldiers capturing two Russian mercenaries near Torske, indicating RF is using non-regular forces which may be less motivated or trained, impacting personnel quality. TASS reports CNN stating UA forces are exhausted and facing extreme personnel shortages on the frontline, a key RF propaganda point that impacts personnel morale/perception. Басурин о главном reports senators introduced three bills supporting SVO participants and their families, indicating efforts to maintain personnel morale and retention. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF source) reports "civil servant" found work for those dismissed due to internet shutdowns, potentially indicating a strategy to retain or reallocate personnel into other areas supportive of the war economy. Два майора promotes cryptocurrency donation bot for "special forces units," indicating continued localized fundraising for military support. ASTRA posts photo messages of a Krasnoyarsk official suggesting remote workers losing jobs due to internet shutdowns should "go to the SVO," directly indicating pressure on personnel for military service. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts photo message with caption "Residents of the emergency building are offered to go to war in exchange for resettlement," indicating a potentially coercive recruitment method, suggesting challenges in RF personnel sustainment. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts a collage of portraits of four individuals with a caption implying they have been "successfully demobilized" (likely killed), confirming RF personnel losses. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts photo messages with a Russian text saying "Infantry companies were worn down by 90-95%, until only the command was left from the assault company." This is a significant indicator of high RF infantry personnel losses. RF source Глеб Никитин posts video about a soldier whose apartment was robbed, highlighting the human aspect of military service and potential challenges to personnel well-being. Alex Parker Returns posts photo message about migrants statue in Moscow, indicating RF's use of migrant communities for political messaging. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video showing evacuation under continuous fire, with a military vehicle displaying a "300" casualty marker. NEW: STERNENKO posts a video titled "Katsapy are falling and dying. Dying and falling," visually confirming RF casualties and highlighting the impact on personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: РБК-Україна posts video featuring an expert discussing challenges of UA troop concentration and redeployment, implying challenges for UA personnel sustainment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы reports blogger Areg Shchepikhin will be held in pre-trial detention, and the video shows him expressing a desire to communicate with his "brothers" in prison. This indicates internal dissent and challenges to social cohesion within RF society. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Воин DV posts drone footage visually confirming RF's effective engagement and casualties on ground targets. This reinforces RF's narrative of UA personnel losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Materiel: Overall production capacity appears sufficient to replace losses, with continued investment in advanced systems (robotic complexes, uncrewed kamikaze boats) and expansion of drone production. TASS confirms RF is testing new optical laser drone destruction schemes. The "Peppa" communication kit advertisement suggests a focus on improving tactical communications, potentially through commercial means, indicating a material and technological sustainment effort. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ (RF source) reports on "new drones for the AFU" and mentions "Software Group Auterion to Ship 33,000 AI Drone 'Strike Kits' to Ukraine," indicating RF is monitoring UA materiel acquisition, and UA is receiving significant drone supplies. Two Mayors (RF source) video shows continued testing and development of new armored vehicles, signaling investment in materiel modernization. Filolog v zasade (RF source) reports on machine gun boxes being freely sold in Donetsk, indicating a potential illicit market for military materiel or a lack of control over arms, which could both point to sustainment issues or internal security problems. Rybar (RF source) video showcasing the ZALA UAV engaging a maritime target demonstrates continued investment and deployment of advanced drone materiel for strategic purposes. Basurin (RF source) historical photo of Peter I highlights RF's long-term commitment to naval materiel development. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts video showing additional drone batteries for units on Toretsk direction, indicating continuous demand for drone materiel on both sides. Филолог в zasade (RF source) reporting on fundraising for "birds" (drones) indicates ongoing materiel needs for RF reconnaissance units. Butusov Plus (UA source) video showing a burning military vehicle indicates RF materiel losses. Воин DV (RF source) video showing drone strikes on armored vehicles confirms RF's ability to develop and deploy effective anti-armor munitions. Два майора promotes cryptocurrency donation for "special forces units," indicating efforts to acquire additional materiel through non-state channels. STERNENKO (UA source) video shows an overhead drone view of a destroyed military vehicle engulfed in smoke, followed by a QR code for donations, indicating a loss of RF materiel and a call for friendly support. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts video showing a disassembled drone being carried by military personnel, suggesting capture or recovery of enemy materiel, or showcasing friendly drone capabilities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) posts photo message implying unit command is openly discussing drone needs, indicating continued materiel requirements for UAVs. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video of aftermath of an artillery strike or explosion in a wooded area, showing debris and possibly human remains, indicating RF materiel and personnel losses. Рыбарь posts a photo message claiming "Abrams as Air Defense", which, if true, would suggest a significant misallocation of valuable Western military equipment by UA, implying a setback in materiel management. RF source БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС posts video of Russian forces performing combat coordination on motorcycles, likely a training exercise, but highlights RF mobility in rural areas. Два майора posts fundraising appeal for medical backpacks, indicating continued materiel needs. RBC-Ukraine reports that the war has led to the collapse of Russia's key fleet renewal project, indicating a significant setback in naval materiel sustainment. Colonelcassad reports on PL-16, a new stage in the development of Chinese air-to-air missiles, including an image of presentation slides detailing missile performance and fighter tactics. NEW: TASS posts a video showing a Lancet UAV strike on three artillery positions of enemy forces, specifically identifying a 155mm piece as destroyed. This confirms continued materiel losses for UA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Воин DV posts drone footage visually confirming RF's effective engagement and casualties on ground targets. This includes likely destruction or damage to UA materiel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Command and Control Effectiveness
  • Tactical Level: Demonstrated effective tactical C2 for coordinated aerial strikes and focused ground assaults. Continued challenges in large-scale combined arms operations, but adaptation to small-unit tactics and effective use of specialized units. The Colonelcassad video showcasing the coordinated reconnaissance and targeting by the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade suggests effective tactical C2 at the unit level for specific combat missions, especially for interdiction. Operatsiya Z (RF source) video of drone operations supporting ground assault on Orikhiv indicates effective tactical integration of air and ground assets. Воин DV (RF source) video showing special forces operators destroying a PVD with drone support indicates effective tactical C2 for combined arms strikes. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's thermal drone footage and accompanying text about the Chasiv Yar direction indicates effective tactical C2 for integrated drone reconnaissance and strike operations. DNR People's Militia (RF source) video showcasing drone operations, including destroying enemy drones mid-air and dropping propaganda, demonstrates effective tactical C2 in adapting drone use for multiple combat functions. Colonelcassad (RF source) video of Rosgvardia soldier shooting down a drone implies tactical C2 for immediate counter-UAV response. Alex Parker Returns video of UA military personnel inside a vehicle experiencing a "flash and smoke" event implies effective C2 for rapid response under fire. Basurin (RF source) showing TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" MLRS firing effectively indicates tactical C2 for heavy fire support in the Kharkiv direction. TASS reports Geran-2 UAV strike on a temporary deployment point in Sumy, indicating effective tactical C2 for drone strikes. Voin DV (RF source) video of 40th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade assault unit training demonstrates effective C2 in preparing units for assault operations. Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) aerial thermal footage suggests effective tactical C2 for drone-based reconnaissance and target identification. Operatsiya Z (RF source) video claiming special forces burning enemy armored vehicles in Chernihiv direction indicates effective tactical C2 for direct action. Voin DV (RF source) claims "Vostok" Group liberated Temirovka in Zaporizhzhia, supported by drone footage, indicating effective tactical C2 for ground advances. Сливочный каприз (RF source) map and video of Temirovka liberation confirms effective tactical C2 for ground operations. Операция Z (RF source, citing Военкоры Русской Весны) video on Maliivka liberation suggests effective tactical C2 for combined arms operations. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) video showing Tornado-S MLRS strikes in Kharkiv Oblast, suggests effective C2 for targeted artillery support. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) video showing FPV drone operations confirms tactical C2 for drone deployment and targeting. STERNENKO (UA source) video of drone strike on RF vehicle suggests effective UA tactical C2 for drone operations, overcoming RF EW. Operatyvnyi ZSU video showing UA assault on a dugout and capturing enemy soldiers, indicates effective tactical C2 for small unit offensive operations. Воин DV (RF source) video showing high-precision drone strikes demonstrates effective tactical C2 for drone operators and coordinated targeting. Операция Z (RF source) photo messages confirming liberation of Temirovka and Novoukrainka, with tactical maps/diagrams, indicate strong tactical C2 and planning for ground operations. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) video showing drone footage of combat actions confirms effective tactical C2 for UA drone operations and targeting. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts video of drone operations showing active targeting of ground troops and vehicles, implying effective tactical C2 for coordinated reconnaissance and strike missions. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts video of aftermath of an artillery strike or explosion in a wooded area, showing destroyed trench/dugout position. This suggests effective RF tactical C2 in delivering precise artillery strikes. Операция Z posts video providing drone footage of combat operations in the Pokrovsk direction, including successful strikes against enemy vehicles and armored personnel carriers, indicating effective tactical C2. Сили оборони Півдня України posts video showcasing a Ukrainian 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzer engaging targets, demonstrating continued RF engagement against UA artillery. Старше Эдды posts video showing claimed combat operations in the Sumy direction, including ground force activity and drone footage, indicating effective tactical C2 for ground operations. Два майора posts video from the Sumy direction showing RF ground operations and drone footage, consistent with effective tactical C2. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of two Ukrainian infantrymen attacking and capturing Russian assault troops. This demonstrates RF tactical C2 failures in containing a small-unit UA assault. MoD Russia posts video of FPV drone deployment with explosives. This demonstrates effective tactical C2 for drone operations and targeting. TASS posts video of claimed liberation of Temirovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, showing ground operations and explosions, indicating effective tactical C2 for ground advances. Colonelcassad posts video of drone footage from the Donbas, highlighting military operations, suggesting effective tactical C2 for reconnaissance and strike. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts drone reconnaissance footage from the southwest DND region, focusing on a settlement and showing a fire/explosion event, indicating effective tactical C2 for targeted strikes. RF source БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС posts video of Russian forces performing combat coordination on motorcycles, suggesting effective tactical C2 for training and operational maneuver. STERNENKO (UA source) posts video of Phoenix unit destroying enemy motorcyclists, indicating effective UA tactical C2 in countering RF small unit incursions. Colonelcassad posts video of a "Molniya" drone striking an enemy assault group. MoD Russia posts video of servicemen from the 51st Guards Army training against enemy FPV drones, indicating effective tactical C2 for anti-drone warfare. Kadyrov_95 posts video showcasing successful drone operations by the "Izya" UAV unit of "AHMAT" special forces in the Kharkiv direction, showing aerial reconnaissance and targeted strikes on alleged Ukrainian militant hideouts and positions. NEW: TASS posts a video showing a Lancet UAV strike on three artillery positions of enemy forces, specifically identifying a 155mm piece as destroyed. This confirms RF's effective tactical C2 in targeting UA artillery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Операция Z reports Russian army entered Kolodezi, advancing towards Lyman, indicating effective tactical C2 for ground forces in this sector. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) NEW: Воин DV posts drone footage visually confirming effective RF tactical engagement and casualties on ground targets, indicating strong C2 coordination of aerial assets for ground support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Operational/Strategic Level: Centralized strategic C2, evidenced by coordinated nationwide missile/drone campaigns, significant internal security operations, and diplomatic engagements. The unified response to the Aeroflot cyber incident demonstrates a level of coordinated strategic crisis management, though it does not negate the disruption. The rapid confirmation and response by RZD (Russian Railways) to the Salsk railway incident demonstrates effective tactical and operational C2 within RF infrastructure management. The coordinated messaging from RF sources (e.g., RF MoD and Operatsiya Z confirming 74 drones shot down) demonstrates effective C2 for information warfare. Basurin's discussion on Sputnik radio about issues within military leadership (age, combat experience) points to a potential strategic-level concern regarding command effectiveness, though it is framed as a discussion on potential solutions. TASS highlighting EU roads' unsuitability for military transport is a strategic-level information operation, indicating RF intelligence has assessed and is attempting to leverage perceived NATO logistical vulnerabilities. RF FSB preventing a terror attack on a high-ranking military official in Rostov-on-Don highlights effective strategic C2 in counter-terrorism operations. The move towards the "Max" messenger indicates a strategic C2 decision to enhance internal communication security. Dva Mayora confirms Estonian MFA summoned Russian Charge d'Affaires, indicating RF strategic C2 for probing NATO borders and managing diplomatic fallout. TASS reports China will welcome improved relations between Russia and US, indicating a diplomatic stance that seeks to reduce global tensions. Alex Parker Returns photo of Roscosmos head in US highlights continued space cooperation with US, which can be seen as a positive diplomatic development despite the broader conflict. TASS reports on the Vucic government in Serbia "hanging by a thread," indicating Russia's diplomatic interest in the region. TASS reports Politico's claims about Zelensky's panic due to declining popularity related to attempts to strip NABU/SAP independence, which will be leveraged to undermine international confidence in Ukraine's governance. TASS reports the first flight from Pyongyang landed in Moscow, symbolizing deepening diplomatic and economic ties with DPRK. TASS reports Harvard is ready to pay $500M to settle disputes with Trump administration, a diplomatic development in US internal politics. TASS reports US proposal to buy Komandorsky Islands from Russia, which, while unofficial, indicates RF's strategic monitoring and response to geopolitical propositions. TASS reports EU has suspended financial aid to Ukraine, creating a significant diplomatic challenge. Coordinator Staff for POWs highlights European Parliament's demand for the release of Ukrainian POWs, indicating continued international diplomatic pressure on Russia. TASS reports on the Spiritual Administration of Muslims' call for evaluating Dina Rubina's statements, indicating Russia's efforts to manage its international image. TASS (RF source) reports Putin appointed Denis Gonchar as the Russian Ambassador to Belgium, indicating routine diplomatic engagements. TASS reports Moldova intends to remove joint Russian-Moldovan "Moldovagaz" from supply, highlighting a strategic C2 decision by Moldova impacting RF. TASS reports Trump dominated the conversation with Starmer in Scotland, a diplomatic development in UK politics. Tsapliyenko_Ukraine Fights reports that Germany's CSU party is demanding a cessation of social payments to Ukrainian men of conscription age, arguing they should work or join the Ukrainian army, which could become a significant diplomatic issue between Ukraine and Germany regarding refugee status and military service. Colonelcassad reports a serious cyberattack on the French defense industry, a diplomatic incident that will require a response from NATO. TASS reports Peskov stating Russia will continue the "special military operation" despite Trump's statements, confirming RF's high-level strategic resolve and C2. ТАСС reports Peskov rejecting claims of RF attacking the correctional colony in Zaporizhzhia, indicating strategic C2 for narrative control. ТАСС reports Peskov stating RF and USA are not in contact regarding NST, due to the state of bilateral relations, emphasizing Western diplomatic failures. TASS reports Peskov confirming Kremlin noted Trump's statement on "reducing terms" but SVO continues, explicitly demonstrating RF strategic C2 over the conflict's timeline and diplomatic engagement. RBC-Україна posts a photo message reporting on the Kremlin's response to Trump's statement about shortening the 50-day deadline, indicating RF's strategic C2 in managing international diplomatic narratives. Colonelcassad (RF source) states Kremlin took note of Trump's ultimatums, confirming RF's strategic C2 to address and deflect foreign pressure while maintaining its stated objectives. TASS reports Putin stating banks should not worsen mortgages for citizens. This indicates strategic C2 in economic policy to maintain internal stability during wartime. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports embezzlement by municipal officials, highlighting UA's ongoing efforts to maintain strategic C2 over internal financial integrity. TASS reports that the Verkhovna Rada Committee, after a second attempt, gathered a quorum and voted for Zelenskyy's bill on NABU and SAP, indicating progress in strengthening UA's anti-corruption bodies. TASS reports on the General Prosecutor's Office sending a case to court regarding the embezzlement of 519 million rubles from the Russian Pension Fund, indicating RF's continued strategic C2 to address internal financial crimes. TASS posts video of Putin discussing facial recognition payment systems, indicating strategic C2 in adopting advanced surveillance and financial control technologies within Russia. Alex Parker Returns posts photo messages about a Sharia court administrator vacancy in Manchester (UK), which RF will use to highlight perceived Western instability, potentially diverting attention from internal issues. Рыбарь posts a photo message claiming "Abrams as Air Defense", which indicates a strategic C2 effort in information warfare to mock perceived NATO capabilities. TASS reports US and UK organized a secret meeting in the Alps to discuss replacing Zelenskyy. This is a clear RF disinformation campaign, but highlights RF's strategic C2 over information warfare. TASS reports Zaluzhny was nominated for Ukrainian president at the secret meeting. TASS reports "Ukrainian presidential elections" took place at an Alpine resort. RF source Fighterbomber reports Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) "bursts into the news," indicating new strategic-level information operations or intelligence releases by RF. TASS reports Washington imposed the highest tariff level since the early 20th century, which is a strategic-level economic development impacting international relations. TASS reports Norway's interim chargé d'affaires was summoned to the RF Foreign Ministry over fishing vessel restrictions, indicating RF's strategic C2 in diplomatic pushback against Western sanctions. RF source Операция Z (citing Russian Foreign Intelligence Service) reports that the US and UK secretly discussed replacing Zelenskyy with Zaluzhny in the Alps. This is a significant disinformation campaign aiming to sow discord within Ukraine's leadership and strategic C2. RF source Kotsnews posts photo messages stating "SVR: A new president of Ukraine was chosen in the Alps," reinforcing the disinformation campaign about replacing Zelenskyy. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the detention of leadership and doctors of a Kyiv medical institution for accepting money to "arrange" disabilities, highlighting UA's ongoing efforts to maintain strategic C2 over internal financial integrity. Рыбарь posts an analysis piece titled "Sahel - the point of restarting Russian policy in Africa," indicating Russia's strategic interest in the Sahel region and its foreign policy intentions beyond Ukraine. RBC-Ukraine reports that maximum synchronization of sanctions against the Russian Federation should occur in the coming weeks, a strategic C2 goal for Ukraine's allies. TASS reports Zelenskyy intends to dismiss his office head Andriy Yermak, which, if true, indicates a significant internal strategic C2 shift within Ukrainian government. Zelenskiy / Official posts photo messages of a phone conversation with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, indicating UA's continued strategic C2 in maintaining international diplomatic support. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts photo messages claiming "elections" for the President of Ukraine were held at an Alpine resort, citing the SVR (Russian Foreign Intelligence Service). NEW: TASS reports Romania denied decision to engage in military actions in Ukraine. This indicates RF's strategic C2 in controlling narratives around the conflict's expansion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Rybar posts a video, "Forgive and sink," likely indicating RF's strategic C2 in maritime narrative control and potential naval operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Zoom fined 79.6 million rubles, indicating RF's strategic C2 in enforcing legal control over foreign digital services for information security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports Zelenskyy stated Denmark, which holds the EU presidency, supported the NABU bill, confirming effective UA strategic C2 in gaining international support for legislative reforms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Defensive Posture: Maintained resilient defensive posture, effectively repelling numerous RF assaults on multiple axes (Kursk/Sumy, Eastern axes). Well-equipped and professional personnel. UA air defense demonstrates high effectiveness against UAVs. UA forces in Kharkiv are actively receiving modern EW systems. Zelenskyy signed a law strengthening the SBU. Law signed by Zelenskyy providing 15 million UAH one-time payment to families of servicemen killed in captivity will bolster morale and demonstrate state commitment to welfare. General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provides updated operational information as of 08:00 29.07.25, demonstrating active monitoring and reporting. UA forces repelled 5 attacks in the Pridniprovsk direction. UA forces repelled 7 assaults in the South Slobozhansky direction (Vovchansk, Zelene, Krasnyi Pervyi). 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsky Brigade of the Ukrainian Airborne Assault Forces posts photos of servicemembers receiving awards, indicating continued recognition of combat valor and efforts to maintain morale and unit cohesion. Training within the 81st Brigade focuses on "frontline realities," indicating a proactive and adaptive approach to combat readiness. Office of the Prosecutor General and SBU prevented an assassination attempt by FSB on Serhiy Filimonov, commander of "Wolves of Da Vinci" battalion, indicating effective counter-intelligence and security readiness. Alex Parker Returns video shows Ukrainian military personnel inside a vehicle during what appears to be an explosion, demonstrating continued readiness under fire. Operational ZSU commemorating fallen Special Operations Forces soldiers highlights their continued readiness and role. Zelenskyy signed a law on mandatory military training for medical students, indicating a measure to enhance personnel readiness and medical support. Oleh Synehubov, Kharkiv RMA Head, provides an information report on the situation in the OTU "Kharkiv" operational zone, reflecting continued monitoring and readiness. Oleh Synehubov also posted images and text commemorating fallen defenders, reinforcing morale and resolve. The Coordinator Staff for POWs highlights the European Parliament's demand for the release of Ukrainian POWs, indicating continued diplomatic efforts for their well-being. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (UA source) posts photo messages announcing the opening of a memorial plaque in Zaporizhzhia for fallen defender Kostiantyn Opanasenko, indicating continued efforts to maintain morale and recognize sacrifice. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Ternove, Kostyantynivka, Ivanopillya, Markove, Svitle, Zaliznychne, Bilohirya, Novoandriyivka, Bilenke, and Lvove, confirming UA continues to hold these areas. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes in South Slobozhansky, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and Kherson directions, indicating active UA defense. The Coordinator Staff for POWs announces children completed an IT Camp on Cybersecurity, indicating a focus on future capabilities and youth engagement. General Prosecutor's Office reports an attorney in Lviv will be tried for illegal border crossing and threatening a judge, demonstrating UA's commitment to rule of law. Coordinator Staff for POWs met with "United by Kursk Region" public association, indicating continued efforts to address POW issues and foster cross-regional support. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts video of Ukrainian soldier "Sfinks" discussing his motivation, combat experience in Afghanistan and Ukraine, and emphasizing resilience against shelling and drone attacks. He stresses understanding tactical situations and the broader European duty to support Ukraine. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) posts a photo message reporting a phone conversation with the General Inspector of the Bundeswehr, General Carsten Breuer, indicating continued high-level military cooperation and readiness between UA and Germany. RBC-Ukraine photo messages show DSNS (State Emergency Service) responding to RF strikes on Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued friendly force readiness for emergency response. RBC-Ukraine posts video of Ukrainian Navy emblem and naval exercise, indicating continued readiness and capabilities. RBC-Ukraine posts a photo message about the commander of "Wolves of Da Vinci" reacting to an assassination attempt, highlighting the continued readiness and resilience of high-value friendly personnel. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports officials exposed for embezzling over 13 million UAH, indicating continued friendly force posture against internal corruption. TASS reports that the Verkhovna Rada Committee, after a second attempt, gathered a quorum and voted for Zelenskyy's bill on NABU and SAP, indicating progress in strengthening UA's anti-corruption bodies. Сили оборони Півдня України posts video showcasing a Ukrainian 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzer engaging targets, demonstrating continued friendly force readiness and operational capability. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of two Ukrainian infantrymen attacking and capturing Russian assault troops. This highlights UA infantry readiness for close-quarters combat and demonstrates effective small-unit tactics. KMVA (UA source) posts photo messages promoting commemoration of fallen soldiers and a new culture of honoring defenders. UA source Олександр Вілкул posts photo messages promoting "Kryvyi Rih - Place of Power," which appears to be a local initiative to boost morale and resilience. UA source Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the detention of leadership and doctors of a Kyiv medical institution for accepting money to "arrange" disabilities, indicating continued friendly force posture against internal corruption. Ukrainian Air Assault Forces posts video of 77th Brigade drone operators effectively fighting invaders, highlighting continuous combat efforts. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine updates operational information as of 16:00. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine posts multiple photo messages showing military medics providing assistance on the battlefield and during training, emphasizing their dual role in combat support and medical care. The Coordination Staff for POWs posts multiple photo messages from a meeting with families of the 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, highlighting ongoing support for friendly forces' families. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports uncovering a scheme by officials in Kyiv Oblast to seize state land worth over 22 million UAH. NEW: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UA Airborne Assault Forces) posts photo messages of night training exercises, describing them as "intensive training, maximally close to combat conditions." This indicates continued high-level combat readiness, realistic training scenarios, and a proactive approach to maintaining combat effectiveness, particularly for night operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy's draft law on NABU will be considered by the Rada Committee today, July 29, indicating continued efforts to strengthen anti-corruption bodies as part of reform efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video of President Zelenskyy visiting a Ukrainian defense enterprise in Kyiv Oblast producing electronics and sensitive components for missiles, drones, and secure communication. This indicates continued Ukrainian efforts to bolster domestic defense production and reduce reliance on external supplies, demonstrating readiness for sustained conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Олег Синєгубов posts photo messages congratulating Kharkiv Cyberpolice on their 16th anniversary, highlighting UA's focus on cyber defense and readiness in this domain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Drone Capabilities: Continued effective employment of drones for reconnaissance and strike. FPV drone video shows effective use of thermobaric and incendiary munitions. Successful crowdfunding indicates strong public support. Development of FAB-250 carrying drone suggests significant offensive capabilities. The 414th UAV Brigade "Birds of Madyar" are actively engaged on the Pokrovsk direction, demonstrating continued drone effectiveness. First-ever published footage of GUR's "Raven Group" using FPV drones from boats in the Black Sea indicates a new and adaptive maritime drone capability, expanding the operational domain. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ (RF source) confirms "Software Group Auterion to Ship 33,000 AI Drone 'Strike Kits' to Ukraine," indicating significant current and future UA drone capabilities, including advanced AI integration. Tsapliyenko_Ukraine Fights video shows UA soldiers preparing a drone with an explosive payload, indicating continued tactical drone strike readiness. Butusov Plus video shows "Troika" drone drops destroying enemy positions, confirming continued effective use of tactical drones for precision strikes. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UA source) posts videos showing additional drone batteries for units on Toretsk direction, indicating sustained drone operations and logistical support. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UA source) posts video of the 420th Separate UAV Battalion "HORT" operating, demonstrating continued aerial reconnaissance capability. STERNENKO (UA source) posts video from an Omega special unit drone, showing aerial reconnaissance over a rural area, with "violators" being punished for "illegal flights," likely referring to enemy aerial assets. STERNENKO (UA source) posts video showing an overhead drone view of a destroyed RF military vehicle engulfed in smoke, indicating effective UA drone strike capabilities. Ukrainian Air Assault Forces posts video of 77th Brigade drone operators effectively fighting invaders, highlighting continuous combat efforts and effective drone deployment. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video of President Zelenskyy visiting a Ukrainian defense enterprise in Kyiv Oblast producing electronics and sensitive components for drones, indicating sustained domestic production efforts for drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:
  • Air Defense: Highly effective against RF UAVs, shooting down 32 out of 37 overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Deep Strikes: Successful UAV attacks on Salsk railway station and potentially an electrical substation in Rostov Oblast, confirmed by RF sources, disrupting critical RF logistics. UA sources confirm intent to disrupt "artery of war." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Repels: Repelled numerous RF assaults across Eastern and Southern axes, including 5 in Kherson and 10 in Kursk/Sumy directions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tactical Gains: The 63rd Mechanized Brigade successfully assaulted an enemy dugout near Torske, capturing two Russian mercenaries, demonstrating effective small-unit offensive tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Counter-Intelligence/Security: SBU and Prosecutor General's Office prevented an assassination attempt on "Wolves of Da Vinci" commander and exposed multiple corruption schemes (Kyivpastrans, Khmelnytska officials, Kyiv medical institution, Bucha housing, Kyiv Oblast land seizure). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Domestic Production: Zelenskyy's visit to a defense enterprise in Kyiv Oblast highlights successful ramp-up of domestic electronics and sensitive components for missiles, drones, and secure communications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cyber-attacks: Confirmed successful cyberattacks on multiple RF civilian services (Aeroflot, pharmacy networks, Russian Post website), indicating effective UA-aligned cyber operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Combat Engagement: STERNENKO (UA source) posts a video confirming RF casualties ("Katsapy are falling and dying"), indicating successful UA combat engagements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Artillery Strikes: Сили оборони Півдня України posts a video showing a Ukrainian 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzer engaging targets, indicating continued effective UA artillery operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Small Unit Tactics: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of two Ukrainian infantrymen attacking and capturing Russian assault troops, demonstrating successful small-unit tactical execution. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Setbacks:
  • Civilian Casualties/Infrastructure Damage: Significant civilian casualties (22 killed, 85 wounded nationwide), including a pregnant woman and medical workers in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Kamenskoye), from RF strikes. Widespread damage to civilian apartments, medical facilities, and DSNS building. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Prisoner Attack: RF attack on a correctional facility in Zaporizhzhia Oblast resulted in 17 killed and 42 wounded. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Territorial Losses (Claimed by RF): RF claims liberation of Novoukrainka (Donetsk) and Temirovka (Zaporizhzhia), and advances in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk axis), including DRG infiltration into Krasnoarmeysk itself, and claims of entering Kolodezi (Lyman direction). While needing independent verification, these indicate persistent pressure and potential for localized losses. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Power Outages: Widespread power outages due to RF strikes and severe weather (Kyiv). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Personnel Shortages (RF Narrative): RF sources report UA forces are "exhausted" and facing "extreme personnel shortages" in Konstantinovka, a persistent narrative that, if it gains traction, could impact morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Logistics: The report of "Occupants creating a 'death strip' from the Dnipro to the front line in Kherson" indicates a potential RF tactic aimed at disrupting UA logistics and freedom of movement in the area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Corruption: Continued reports of internal corruption (Kyivpastrans, Khmelnytska officials, Kyiv medical institution, Bucha housing, Kyiv Oblast land seizure) indicate ongoing internal security challenges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Refugee Status in Germany: German CSU party demanding cessation of social benefits for Ukrainian conscription-age men could complicate UA mobilization efforts and affect financial support for citizens abroad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Financial Aid Risk: EU paused funding for Ukraine due to issues with NABU/SAP law, risking $60 billion in aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cyber Vulnerabilities: Continued successful cyberattacks on RF civilian services highlight RF vulnerabilities, but also reflect a persistent challenge in the hybrid warfare domain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Leadership Succession (RF Disinfo): RF disinformation campaign about US/UK secretly discussing replacing Zelenskyy with Zaluzhny poses a risk to internal UA unity and international standing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pokrovsk Pressure: RBC-Україна reports an expert discussing potential Russian breakthroughs near Pokrovsk and challenges of UA troop concentration and redeployment. This indicates a recognized vulnerability and significant pressure on this axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Propaganda Impact: Photo messages of graphic civilian casualties, while confirming RF brutality, may also contribute to civilian demoralization if not countered with strong messaging of resilience and accountability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Air Defense Systems & Munitions: Continued and increased requirement for advanced air defense systems (e.g., IRIS-T complexes) and interceptor munitions to counter persistent, large-scale RF missile and drone attacks, especially as RF adapts its launch vectors and drone types (e.g., "Italmas"). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• EW Systems: Continued need for modern EW systems to counter RF's growing capabilities, including Murmansk-BN. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Long-Range Strike Capabilities: Continued need for long-range strike capabilities to disrupt RF logistics and C2 nodes in depth, as demonstrated by the Salsk railway attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Artillery Ammunition: Continuous demand for artillery ammunition for counter-battery fire and defensive engagements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Drones (ISR/Strike): High demand for FPV and reconnaissance drones, along with batteries and components, as evidenced by ongoing crowdfunding and unit appeals. The confirmed future delivery of 33,000 AI drone "strike kits" indicates a significant bolster in this area, but immediate needs persist. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Medical & Rehabilitation Supplies: Increased requirements for medical supplies and rehabilitation services due to high civilian and military casualties, particularly for burn victims and those affected by mass casualty events. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Humanitarian Aid: Continued need for humanitarian aid to address water shortages in occupied territories (Donetsk). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Personnel (Mobilization/Retention): Challenges with personnel sustainment and mobilization, exacerbated by debates in Germany regarding refugee benefits and RF propaganda about UA exhaustion. The mandatory military training for medical students indicates an effort to expand personnel pool. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Cyber Defense Capabilities: Continued need for robust cyber defense capabilities to protect critical civilian and military infrastructure from sophisticated RF cyberattacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• International Financial Support: Critical need for continued and expedited international financial aid, with the EU's suspension of funding due to NABU/SAP law posing a significant constraint. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Anti-Corruption Measures: Continued resource allocation for anti-corruption efforts is crucial for maintaining international support and internal stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Naval Modernization: Russia's fleet renewal project collapse is a setback for RF, but UA needs to continue its naval modernization efforts to maintain advantage in the Black Sea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Narratives:
  • UA as "Terrorist State": RF continues to explicitly blame UA for civilian casualties in occupied Donetsk (drone attacks on business/residential areas) and for internal RF incidents (forest fires, Salsk railway station attack, Rostov-on-Don terror plot), framing UA actions as "inhumane crimes against peaceful citizens" and "terrorism." This aims to justify RF retaliatory strikes and internal crackdowns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Western Weakness/Division: Amplifying Trump's statements, Politico's view on EU-US energy deals, US nuclear weapons transfer to UK, Polish discontent with Ukrainian refugees, Vucic government instability, Harvard's settlement with Trump, and the US proposal to buy Komandorsky Islands. This aims to portray Western disunity, economic weakness, and internal instability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UA Military Weakness/Forced Mobilization: Actively disseminating narratives about UA forces being "exhausted" and facing "extreme personnel shortages" (CNN quote from Konstantinovka), and that "mercenaries fled without a fight" (Maliivka claim). Propaganda leaflets encouraging UA surrender. Pressure on Germany to cut benefits for conscription-age Ukrainian men. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Military Success: Highlighting claimed advances (Pokrovsk, Temirovka, Novoukrainka, Maliivka, Kolodezi), successful AD intercepts (74 UAVs), effective Lancet strikes on UA artillery, new armored vehicles, and special forces operations. This aims to boost domestic morale and project an image of military superiority. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Stability/Governance: Promoting pension increases, state control over key economic sectors, successful anti-corruption efforts (e.g., Pension Fund embezzlement case), and effective civilian emergency responses (Yekaterinburg building collapse). Soft propaganda (cats, wallaby, Moscow urban development) to project normalcy and deflect from war issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Testing NATO: Alleged "Gerbera" UAV over Lithuania, Estonian border violation, and the Minsk drone incident (attributed to Ukraine with Western parts) are leveraged to portray NATO/UA as aggressive or vulnerable, justifying RF actions and military buildup. The cyberattack on French defense industry is also used to highlight Western vulnerabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Humanitarian Crisis in Ukraine (Blamed on UA): RF sources show videos of Donetsk residents complaining about bombardments, water/energy blockades, framing it as Ukrainian actions causing suffering in occupied territories. Children appealing to Putin for water in DPR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Global Alignment: Showcasing positive ties with DPRK (schoolchildren's letter, direct flights) and promoting a narrative of China welcoming improved US-Russia relations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Discrediting UA Leadership: Disinformation campaign about US/UK secretly discussing replacing Zelenskyy with Zaluzhny in the Alps, complete with "elections" narrative, aims to sow discord within Ukraine's leadership and delegitimize its international standing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Misinformation on Casualties: RF reports on the Kamenskoye strike claiming it hit a "military rehabilitation center" to legitimize targeting civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Religious/Social Control: Internal narratives promoting Sharia law in migrant communities and suppressing non-traditional religious symbols to reinforce social cohesion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Economic Control: Narratives about banks depriving Russians of money for months are likely framed as necessary measures for financial stability or consequences of Western sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Response to Cyberattacks: RF sources quickly reported Aeroflot system stabilization and attempt to downplay the impact of other cyberattacks on pharmacy networks and Russian Post. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Narrative of Control: Use of legal measures (Zoom fine) to enforce Russian law on foreign tech companies, projecting state control over information. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Social Policy: Proposal for a migrant monument in Moscow signals a potential shift in messaging or policy regarding migrant populations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UA Counter-Narratives:
  • RF Brutality: Highlighting civilian casualties, particularly graphic images of a pregnant woman killed in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and the attack on the correctional facility in Zaporizhzhia, directly exposing RF war crimes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Casualties: Video showing RF soldiers "falling and dying," directly countering RF claims of UA weakness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Logistical Vulnerabilities: Emphasizing successful deep strikes on RF railway infrastructure (Salsk) as "artery of war" disruptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UA Resilience & Readiness: Showcasing effective air defense, successful ground repels, domestic defense production (Zelenskyy's visit to Kyiv enterprise), and ongoing high-level military training (Airborne Assault Forces night training). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Corruption Efforts: Highlighting SBU and Prosecutor General's Office efforts to prevent assassinations and expose embezzlement schemes, demonstrating commitment to good governance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • International Support: Zelenskyy's phone call with Danish PM and Denmark's support for NABU bill. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Western Unity: Emphasizing synchronized sanctions against RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • POW Advocacy: Continued focus on POW issues, including a public gathering in Kyiv and Coordination Staff meetings. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Humanitarian Crisis (Blamed on RF): Photos of damage in Kamenskoye after missile strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Internal Issues: Reports on corruption within RF military-industrial complex and challenges faced by ordinary Russians (e.g., soldier's apartment robbed). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cyber Defense: Oleg Synehubov congratulating Kharkiv Cyberpolice highlights UA's focus on cyber capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Domestic Innovation: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting on Sumy being a testing ground for Russia's "Italmas" UAVs indicates UA's awareness of RF's new drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Acknowledging Challenges: RBC-Ukraine's expert discussion on potential Russian breakthroughs near Pokrovsk and UA troop concentration challenges demonstrates transparency, which can build trust domestically and internationally. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Allegation: Rybar's claim that "Azerbaijan arms the Armed Forces of Ukraine" could be a new narrative to portray growing international support for UA. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukraine:
  • Resilience & Resolve: High public morale evidenced by large gatherings commemorating POWs (Olenivka tragedy). Continued support for fundraising for military equipment. Soldier "Sfinks" video emphasizes resilience and European duty. Commemoration of fallen soldiers aims to maintain morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Frustration/Fatigue: Persistent missile/UAV attacks and shelling causing civilian casualties (22 killed, 85 wounded) and damage to homes/infrastructure will generate public frustration and stress. Water shortages in occupied territories (Donetsk) contribute to suffering. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Corruption Concerns: Public awareness of corruption cases (Kyivpastrans, Khmelnytska, Kyiv medical institution, Bucha housing, Kyiv Oblast land seizure) could impact public trust in government and institutions, especially with EU funding tied to anti-corruption reforms (NABU/SAP). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • POW Welfare: High public focus on POWs and the government's efforts on rehabilitation and exchange lists indicate a sensitive and important morale factor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mobilization Debate: Discussions in Germany about benefits for conscription-age Ukrainian men may cause anxiety and debate among refugees and their families. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia:
  • Propaganda Effect: State media narratives emphasizing RF military success, Western weakness, and UA "terrorism" aim to bolster domestic morale and justify the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security Concerns: Drone attacks on RF territory (Rostov, Belgorod, Leningrad, Bryansk, Kursk) cause public anxiety and fear. Reports of internal terror plots and strict mobile internet restrictions indicate growing security concerns impacting daily life. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Economic Impact: Reports of banks depriving Russians of access to money and car washes being disconnected from water supply in DNR will generate public discontent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Social Cohesion: Reports of migrants wanting to live by Sharia law and the proposal for a migrant monument reflect internal social tensions. Sentencing for religious displays and political repression further indicate tightening social control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Casualty Management: While RF portrays military successes, reports of high losses in infantry companies (90-95% worn down) from UA sources, if they leak into RF public sphere, could erode morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • State Support: Efforts to increase pensions for working pensioners and support for SVO participants and their families aim to maintain public trust and morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cyber Disruption: Cyberattacks on Aeroflot, pharmacy networks, and Russian Post website will cause significant public inconvenience and frustration, potentially impacting confidence in infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Censorship: Sentencing of journalists for "military fakes" signals the severity of information control and will likely contribute to public self-censorship. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Support for Ukraine:
  • Continued Military Aid: Germany confirming 11 more IRIS-T complexes. US providing nuclear weapons to UK (per RF reports) signals continued NATO military posture, potentially reassuring Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Engagement: Zelenskyy's phone call with Danish PM and Denmark's support for the NABU bill demonstrates continued high-level diplomatic engagement and support for reforms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sanctions: Continued Western efforts for maximum synchronization of sanctions against RF. UK Supreme Court rejecting appeal on sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • POW Advocacy: European Parliament's demand for the release of Ukrainian POWs indicates persistent international pressure on Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Aid Source (Alleged): Rybar's report of Azerbaijan arming Ukraine, if true, signifies an expansion of international support. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Challenges/Pressure on Ukraine:
  • EU Funding Suspension: EU stopping funding due to NABU/SAP law creates significant financial pressure and highlights conditional support for reforms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Refugee Status in Germany: German CSU party's demand to cut social benefits for conscription-age Ukrainian men signals a potential shift in refugee policy and pressure on UA's mobilization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Disinformation Campaigns: RF's aggressive disinformation campaign about replacing Zelenskyy (US/UK "secret meeting in Alps," Zaluzhny nomination) aims to destabilize Ukrainian leadership and sow distrust among allies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Western Opinion (RF Narrative): RF highlighting CNN reports on UA exhaustion and personnel shortages. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Support for Russia:
  • DPRK Ties: Continued diplomatic and air travel ties with North Korea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pro-Russian Sentiment (Moldova): Three opposition parties in Moldova forming a bloc advocating for restoration of relations with Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Western Sentiment: RF leveraging internal Western issues (Manhattan shooting, LA wildfires) to deflect attention. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Strategic Alignment: China reportedly welcoming improved US-Russia relations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Challenges/Pressure on Russia:
  • Sanctions: Continued Western sanctions and legal challenges against Russian oligarchs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Protests: Estonian MFA summoning Russian Charge d'Affaires over border violation. Norway summoning Russian Charge d'Affaires over fishing vessel restrictions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Instability (Perceived by West): Russia's internal cyberattacks, economic issues (banks), and social tensions are being monitored internationally. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Modernization Collapse: RBC-Ukraine reports the war has led to the collapse of Russia's key fleet renewal project, indicating a significant impact on RF naval power projection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Legal Challenges: Zoom fined for non-compliance with Russian law, indicating foreign entities facing increasing pressure within RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Romania's Stance: Romania denying decision to engage in military actions in Ukraine counters narratives of NATO expansion or direct intervention, which could impact RF's information campaign. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• MLCOA 1: Continued Coordinated Massed Aerial Attacks. RF will continue nightly strikes utilizing a mixed arsenal of ballistic missiles (Iskander), cruise missiles, and a high volume of Shahed drones (upwards of 30-40+). These attacks will target critical infrastructure, military facilities (including suspected defense industry sites like the Kyiv Oblast enterprise), and population centers, particularly those with existing power/water vulnerabilities. Expect varied launch vectors and adaptive drone routes to bypass UA air defenses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tactical Indicators: Continued high volume of air raid alerts, especially at night. Reports of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Intelligence on new drone types (e.g., "Italmas") or missile variants.
• MLCOA 2: Sustained Ground Offensive Pressure on Pokrovsk Axis with Concentrated Fire Support. RF forces will maintain and likely intensify ground assaults on the Pokrovsk axis (Krasnoarmeysk, Myrnohrad, Rodinskoye, Kolodezi), prioritizing operational encirclement and logistical cutoff. These assaults will be characterized by heavy artillery (including TOS-1A if available on this axis), Lancet loitering munitions targeting high-value UA engineering and artillery assets, FPV drone support, and tactical DRG infiltration. RF claims of entering Krasnoarmeysk and Kolodezi indicate this is a primary focus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tactical Indicators: Persistent reports of heavy fighting, increased use of Lancet and FPV drones, claimed territorial gains, and surrender reports from RF sources. Increased counter-battery fire from RF.
• MLCOA 3: Escalated Hybrid Operations Targeting UA Logistics and Internal Stability. RF will increase deep strikes against UA-aligned railway infrastructure and other logistics targets within Russia and occupied territories (e.g., further attacks on rail hubs, fuel depots). Concurrently, RF will intensify cyberattacks on critical Ukrainian civilian services and leverage information operations to sow internal discord and delegitimize UA leadership (e.g., amplifying corruption narratives, promoting "Zaluzhny replacement" disinformation). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tactical Indicators: Continued cyberattacks on civilian infrastructure. Increased propaganda related to internal Ukrainian politics, corruption, and Western aid. Reports of RF deep strikes targeting logistics.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• MDCOA 1: Breakthrough and Operational Encirclement on Pokrovsk Axis. RF commits substantial reserves to the Pokrovsk axis, achieves a decisive breakthrough of UA defenses, and successfully encircles or severely compromises major UA formations around Myrnohrad/Pokrovsk. This would significantly alter the battlefield geometry in Donetsk Oblast and could lead to a large-scale retreat or collapse of UA defensive lines in the sector. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Tactical Indicators: Large-scale, multi-battalion mechanized assaults. Rapid, deep advances by RF forces. Significant increase in UA casualties and equipment losses. Rapid decline in UA C2 effectiveness in the area.
• MDCOA 2: Coordinated Strategic Air Campaign to Overwhelm UA Air Defenses and Degrade C2. RF launches a multi-wave, multi-domain air campaign combining synchronized ballistic missile, cruise missile, and massed long-range UAV attacks across Ukraine, specifically targeting key air defense nodes, command centers, and critical energy/military-industrial facilities. This would aim to degrade UA's ability to defend its airspace and coordinate a response, opening up the battlespace for further RF air and ground operations. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Tactical Indicators: Unusually high number of simultaneous missile and drone launches across multiple axes. Reports of air defense saturation or breakthroughs. Significant damage to major strategic targets.
• MDCOA 3: Escalation of Cross-Border Ground Incursions and Sabotage. RF initiates small-scale ground incursions into Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts (similar to Belgorod 2024 operations) combined with increased sabotage efforts deeper within Ukraine. This would aim to stretch UA forces, create panic, and divert resources from critical frontlines, potentially opening new axes of conflict. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
  • Tactical Indicators: Confirmed presence of RF ground forces on Ukrainian territory beyond usual combat zones. Increased instances of sabotage (e.g., rail lines, supply depots) in rear areas.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Next 24-48 Hours:
  • Pokrovsk Axis: High probability of continued, intense RF ground assaults, possibly culminating in another major push for encirclement. UA forces will likely reach a decision point on whether to commit significant reserves to hold the line or execute tactical withdrawals to more defensible positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Nationwide Aerial Attacks: Continued nightly RF missile and drone barrages. UA Air Force will need to sustain high interception rates and manage munition expenditures. Decision point on strategic air defense resupply and resource allocation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cyber Warfare: Expect continued cyberattacks on civilian and critical infrastructure in both Ukraine and RF, necessitating rapid response and recovery efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Next 72-96 Hours:
  • Kherson Direction: Continued RF attempts to control Dnieper delta islands. Decision point for UA on sustained counter-operations in island zone. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Diplomatic Pressure: Pressure from Germany on Ukrainian refugees' benefits will likely intensify, requiring a decision from Kyiv on mobilization policies impacting expatriates. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • EU Funding: Critical decision point for Ukraine on passing NABU/SAP reform to unlock EU financial aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Beyond 96 Hours:
  • RF Deep Strike Response: If UA deep strikes on RF territory (Salsk, Kursk) continue to be successful and cause significant disruption, RF may launch more severe retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian civilian or economic targets in the coming days/weeks. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • RF Internal Measures: Ongoing cyberattacks on RF civilian services and internal security incidents could lead to further internet restrictions or tighter social controls within Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• PRIMARY: What specific RF unit(s) are conducting the main effort ground assaults on the Pokrovsk axis, and what are their estimated remaining combat effective strengths (personnel, armor, artillery)? (Collection Requirements: IMINT on force composition, SIGINT on unit communications, HUMINT on recent engagements).
• PRIMARY: Precise locations and operational status of RF air defense assets (including EW systems like Murmansk-BN) deployed to counter UA deep strikes on RF territory, particularly around Rostov Oblast and Bryansk Oblast. (Collection Requirements: SIGINT on EW emissions, IMINT of deployment areas, OSINT on public reports/visuals).
• PRIMARY: Current inventory and production rates of key RF missile systems (Iskander, Kinzhal, cruise missiles) and advanced UAVs (Shahed variants, "Italmas"). (Collection Requirements: HUMINT on production facilities, MASINT on missile launches, SIGINT on production targets).
• SECONDARY: Detailed assessment of RF's cyber warfare capabilities against critical civilian infrastructure, including their ability to sustain attacks and develop new vectors. (Collection Requirements: Cyber Threat Intelligence from affected entities, Open Source analysis of malware).
• SECONDARY: Impact of recent Ukrainian deep strikes on RF logistics (Salsk railway, Orlovsky substation) on materiel and personnel flow to frontline units. (Collection Requirements: IMINT of damage and repair progress, OSINT on railway traffic, HUMINT on supply chain issues).

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

• PRIORITY 1 (Pokrovsk Defense):
  • Action: Immediately deploy additional anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) teams and FPV drone units to reinforce key defensive positions on the Pokrovsk axis, specifically targeting RF armored advances in Krasnoarmeysk/Myrnohrad directions. Prioritize training on Lancet counter-measures and multi-layered defense.
  • Rationale: RF is committing significant resources to this axis, demonstrating a clear intent for a breakthrough. Their use of Lancet munitions against UA engineering vehicles highlights a specific targeting priority that must be countered.
• PRIORITY 2 (Air Defense Augmentation):
  • Action: Expedite the delivery and integration of promised Western air defense systems (e.g., IRIS-T, NASAMS) and ensure sufficient munitions stockpiles. Enhance mobile fire groups for drone interception, particularly in central and western oblasts (Kyiv, Khmelnytska, Poltava, Kirovohrad).
  • Rationale: RF's persistent and evolving aerial threat, combining ballistic missiles and massed drones, requires robust, layered air defense. Recent successful intercepts need to be sustained with adequate resupply.
• PRIORITY 3 (Deep Strike and Counter-Logistics Operations):
  • Action: Intensify UA deep strike operations targeting RF railway infrastructure, fuel depots, and military resource bases, particularly in Rostov Oblast, to degrade RF's ability to sustain frontline operations. Prioritize targets that cause maximum disruption and require significant RF repair efforts.
  • Rationale: Successful UA deep strikes have demonstrated the ability to disrupt critical RF logistics. Sustained pressure on these nodes can impact RF's operational tempo.
• PRIORITY 4 (Cyber Resilience and Information Counter-Offensive):
  • Action: Strengthen cyber defenses for critical civilian infrastructure, including healthcare and postal services, in anticipation of continued RF cyberattacks. Simultaneously, launch a robust information counter-offensive to expose RF disinformation (e.g., "Zaluzhny replacement" narrative, false attribution of civilian casualties) and highlight RF war crimes against civilians.
  • Rationale: RF is using multi-domain attacks to undermine UA's stability. A proactive defense in cyberspace combined with a clear information narrative is essential to maintain public trust and international support.
• PRIORITY 5 (Internal Governance and Reform):
  • Action: Accelerate and ensure the transparent passage of critical anti-corruption legislation (NABU/SAP bill) to unlock essential EU financial aid. Continue SBU and Prosecutor General's Office efforts against internal corruption and sabotage networks.
  • Rationale: Financial aid is critical for sustained defense. Internal governance and security are vital for national resilience and international confidence.