Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 282030Z JUL 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide threat from RF missile and UAV attacks persists. UA air defense units, drone systems, army aviation, and mobile fire groups actively engaged enemy aerial threats across multiple oblasts. Ballistic threat from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv previously reported as lifted, has been renewed with a fast-moving target detected. An explosion near Pryluky, Chernihiv Oblast, aligns with previous ballistic missile threats. RF source claims a strike on Pryluky airbase targeting a US "Black Hawk" UH-60. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kyiv Oblast: Continued air raid alerts due to high-speed targets detected from Chernihiv Oblast. Multiple civilian apartments damaged, 8 casualties including a 3-year-old child reported in Darnitsky district from a night RF attack. A downed Iranian Shahed-136 drone (Russian Geran 2) confirmed over Kyiv. Power outages affect ~30,000 families due to weather, potentially exacerbating issues from RF strikes. A large public gathering in central Kyiv, commemorating the Olenivka tragedy, with military presence and "FREE AZOV" banners visible, indicates continued public focus on POWs. New intelligence indicates a high-level meeting at the Coordination Staff for POWs to discuss rehabilitation, reintegration, psychological support, and new approaches to exchange lists for returned POWs, underscoring strategic focus on personnel welfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Khmelnytska Oblast: Confirmed main target of enemy missile and drone trajectories overnight, with explosions reported. New intelligence confirms 13 officials in Khmelnytska Oblast notified of suspicion, with budget losses exceeding 10 million UAH and undeclared assets of 30 million UAH, indicating ongoing efforts to combat corruption within the region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poltava Oblast: Multiple missiles flying towards Poltava Oblast. Ballistic threat to Pryluky persists. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Explosions reported in Kropyvnytskyi, with fire liquidation continuing after night RF attack. UAVs detected heading for Kropyvnytskyi. Damage to State Emergency Service (DSNS) building and equipment in Kropyvnytskyi confirmed. Colonelcassad confirms imagery of a "damaged object after night strikes on Kirovohrad," likely the DSNS building. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: 3 UAVs were shot down overnight. Threat of aviation munitions for Synelnykivskyi district. Two casualties reported due to RF attack. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs detected. "Grey zone" reported on DeepState maps in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating a potential shift in front lines or disputed territory. RF is launching guided aerial bombs (KABs) towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. "Grey zone" reported on DeepState maps in Dnipropetropetsky Oblast, indicating a potential shift in front lines or disputed territory. Nikopol district, Marhanets, Pokrovske, and Myrove communities were under enemy drone and artillery fire. Photos indicate damage to civilian structures. Basurin о главном (RF source) claims UA forces surrendered Maliivka in Dnipropetropetsky Oblast, with images of "dragon's teeth" obstacles, indicating potential RF gains in this area. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim, requires independent verification).
  • Kherson Oblast: Enemy continues attempts to control the island zone in the Dnieper delta, maintaining intensive artillery shelling and aviation strikes. Clashes reported yesterday near Prydniprovske. Ukrainian police video shows officers providing first aid to injured individuals, likely civilians, in a damaged outdoor environment in Kherson, indicating ongoing civilian impact. Dnevnik Desantnika (RF source) reports on the Kherson direction, but no specific operational details are provided at this time. Mash na Donbasse reports a neurosurgeon killed and his wife and son wounded in Oleshky due to a UA shell strike. This is RF propaganda and should be treated with extreme caution. Dnevnik Desantnika reports on the Kherson direction. New intelligence indicates an alleged UA attack on Tendrovska Spit in Kherson Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Eastern Axes (General): Continued ground combat reported on Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka directions. RF tactical aviation active in Eastern direction, including launches of guided aerial bombs to the north of Donetsk Oblast. Continued effective UA FPV drone strikes on RF ground targets, specifically by 63rd Brigade pilots in Torske and vicinity. "Дневник Десантника" claims Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) destroyed AFU temporary deployment points in DNR and Kharkiv Oblast using ODAB-1500 and FAB-500 aerial bombs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Kupyansk Direction: Clashes yesterday near Radkivka, Holubivka and Bohuslavka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Lyman Direction: Clashes yesterday near Seredne, Hryhorivka and Shandryholove. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Siversk Direction: NEW INTEL: OPERATIONAL Z reports "Russian Army breaking through to Siversk." (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim, requires verification). Clashes yesterday near Serebryanka, Verkhnokamyanske, Hryhorivka and towards Siversk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Kramatorsk Direction: Clashes yesterday near Stupochky. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) КАБs inbound. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Toretsk Direction: Clashes yesterday near Oleksandro-Kalynove, Rusyn Yar, Toretsk, Scherbynivka and Yablunivka. UA 63rd Brigade drone pilots reported eliminating RF elements near Torske. STERNENKO (UA source) reports ongoing fierce battles in Donetsk Oblast, supported by drone footage showing vehicles and explosions, likely indicating continued intense combat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна (UA source) reports expert analysis indicating ZSU (UA Armed Forces) are moving to a new phase after the liberation of Kindrativka, and discusses counter-offensives and stabilizing efforts near Yablunivka and the northern sector. This suggests ongoing UA offensive and defensive actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Bakhmut Direction: New intelligence indicates 2nd Motorized Infantry Battalion, 93rd Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" is actively inflicting losses on the enemy in this sector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: RF source "Сливочный каприз" reports on combat near Chasiv Yar and Shevchenko. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk (Pokrovsk Axis): Situation intensely escalating. RF forces are most actively advancing on the Krasnoarmeyskiy direction (Pokrovsk axis), with battles begun in Dimitrov (Myrnohrad) and improved RF positions in Rodinskoye. RF forces also advanced on the Krasnolimansky direction. Reconnaissance drone observed providing RF tactical intelligence on Pokrovsk. Continued RF gains reported near Pokrovsk. Clashes yesterday near Volodymyrivka, Myrnohrad, Novoekonomichne, Razine, Myrolubivka, Lysivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Horikhove, Oleksiyivka, Poltavka, Kotlyne, also towards Pokrovsk, Bilytske, Novoukrayinka, Novopavlivka, Zapovidne, Rodynske. Russian MoD and Kotsnews confirm liberation of Boykivka and Belhiyka in DNR, indicating continued RF advances on this axis. TASS reports Kimakovsky (DNR official) states liberation of Belhiyka opens path to southern Krasnoarmeysk. WarGonzo claims "Grad" artillery of the 41st Motorized Rifle Regiment, 44th Army Corps, is active on the front line in this area. Tsaplienko reports a Russian soldier on the Pokrovsk axis suicided after a Ukrainian drone attack, likely indicating low morale or psychological impact of drone warfare on RF frontline troops. Ukrainian military analyst reports RF attempts to capture the bridgehead between Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka have been thwarted. TASS reports UA forces have withdrawn from Boykivka to third line of defense. New intelligence indicates a group of 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" fighters ambushed occupiers near Pokrovsk, supported by drone footage showing drone-dropped munitions neutralizing multiple individuals in a wooded area with Russian flags visible. Colonelcassad (RF source) provides video footage showing an RF strike on an enemy assault group accumulated in a house before an advance, resulting in an explosion and further destruction of the building, indicating active RF counter-assault operations. Slyvochny kapriz (RF source) reports on Kurakhovo - Alekseevka on 28.07.25, indicating continued combat in this area. STERNENKO (UA source) reports an engagement in the Kurakhove direction, with drone footage showing an explosion neutralizing an RF soldier. New intelligence indicates 2nd Motorized Infantry Battalion, 93rd Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" is actively inflicting losses on the enemy in this sector and is requesting FPV drones. NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad reports Boris Rozhin discussing Russian forces' success in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), claiming no continuous defense by UA, and stating Russian DRGs have entered the city, with fire control over a road near Rodinskoye. This suggests RF is attempting to operationally encircle UA forces, and that Rodinskoye could fall within 1-2 weeks if no UA reinforcements arrive. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - based on consistent RF claims & analytical judgment)
  • Donetsk (Occupied): Mash na Donbasse reports severe water shortage in Kirovsky district of Donetsk, with residents expressing frustration and suspicion of deliberate issues, highlighting civilian suffering and infrastructure breakdown in occupied areas. RF is launching guided aerial bombs (KABs) towards Donetsk Oblast. MoD Russia video shows a soldier speaking about providing first aid to both Russian and Ukrainian wounded, claiming UA commanders abandon their wounded, likely referring to the battle for Zeleny Gai in DNR. New intelligence from Colonelcassad shows a video captioned "Donbas," containing drone footage of military vehicles, communication systems, and strikes, suggesting ongoing RF operations in the region. NEW INTEL: UA Air Force reports KABs inbound to Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns reports Donetsk under massive strike, with power outages. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Mash na Donbasse reports explosions in Donetsk (Kuibyshevsky district), power outages, and enemy drones working with PVO. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novopavlivka Direction: Clashes yesterday near Zelene Pole, Novodarivka, Piddubne, Myrne, and towards Andriyivky-Klevtsove, Temyrivka and Oleksandrohrad. Russian source imagery from Velyka Novosilka - Vilne Pole (Volnoe Pole) dated 26.07.25 shows damage to civilian infrastructure, indicating continued combat in this area. Podubny reports "Vostok" group UAV operators striking UA transport on approaches to Oleksandrohrad, highlighting ongoing logistics interdiction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • South Donetsk Direction: Artillery of the 1198th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 35th Army Group "Vostok" destroying enemy strongpoints and fortifications. Colonelcassad reports on the situation in South Donetsk direction based on @voin_dv data, implying continued RF offensive operations there. Colonelcassad also reports a collection effort for assault and reconnaissance units operating in the South Donetsk direction, potentially indicating preparation for intensified activity. Voin DV (RF source) claims that scouts of the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, Vostok Group of Forces, burned a Ukrainian armored vehicle northwest of Yanvarsky. This indicates continued RF special forces activity and targeted attacks on UA vehicles. New intelligence from Colonelcassad reports on the combat work of scouts from the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade "Vostok" destroying a Humvee on the South Donetsk direction, indicating continued tactical engagements and successes against UA light armored vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: Active work of UA air defense units, drone systems, army aviation, and mobile fire groups overnight, confirming widespread defensive efforts. Three settlements hit by enemy strikes. Threat of strike UAVs. UA Air Force reports a UAV in the Kharkiv area; caution advised. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs detected. Clashes yesterday in South Slobozhansky direction near Vovchansk, Zelene, Fyholivka, Zapadne and towards Petro-Ivanivka. RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Chuhunivka and Shevyakivka. UA "Chartiya" brigade repelling infantry assaults. UA forces delivered modern EW systems to Kharkiv defenders. "Дневник Десантника" claims Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) destroyed AFU temporary deployment points in DNR and Kharkiv Oblast using ODAB-1500 and FAB-500 aerial bombs. Colonelcassad reports "assault groups advancing in the forests near Melovoye" in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued RF ground pressure. OTU "Kharkiv" video shows continued destruction of enemy personnel and vehicles in Kharkiv region, including footage from the 42nd Mechanized Brigade, confirming ongoing combat and effective UA tactical operations. Kadyrov's "Zapad-AKHMAT" battalion active near Vovchansk, with a drone video showing a strike on a private house. Aid from Germany (likely humanitarian or non-military) received in Kharkiv communities. Oleh Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv OVA, reports that at least 30 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast, including Kharkiv City, were hit by enemy strikes last week, with imagery of a burning/damaged building (likely administrative/government) confirming widespread impact. A group of enemy strike UAVs inbound from Belgorod Oblast to Kharkiv Oblast. Drone footage from Colonelcassad claims destruction of Ukrainian combatants and military equipment in Kharkiv Oblast (Vovchansk), as well as Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts (Korenek, Slavhorod, Khrenovka), indicating ongoing RF strike operations. New intelligence indicates a drone attacked Derhachivs'ka community in Kharkiv Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports and provides video evidence of a Russian attack on a civilian "Zhiguli" car in Velyki Prokhody, north of Kharkiv, causing damage with bullet holes and shattered windshield, and a red cloth on the ground, indicating direct targeting of civilians. Dnevnik Desantnika (RF source) posts photo messages with the caption "Kharkiv direction", indicating continued RF operational focus on this area. New intelligence from RF source "Два майора" shows drone footage of a destroyed building complex in Tokarevka, Kharkiv Oblast, with smoke plumes, indicating continued intense combat in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy Oblast: Three fatalities due to RF attack. Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation (KABs). Ukrainian SOF active. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs detected, specifically towards Romny and Konotop, and now in southern Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in the Sumy area. Confirmed strike on the "Zvezda" ammunition plant in Shostka on 26.07. UA 225th Separate Assault Battalion (OShP) shows footage from liberated Kindrativka, indicating successful UA counter-operations. "Оперативний ЗСУ" confirms drone strike footage targeting enemy personnel/equipment in Kindrativka, associated with the 225th Battalion. Butusov Plus also published initial footage from liberated Kindrativka. At Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, Ukrainian forces repelled 9 Russian army assaults. STERNENKO (UA source) reports UA_REG TEAM continuing to methodically destroy Russian logistics in Kursk region, suggesting cross-border drone operations. Drone footage from Colonelcassad claims destruction of Ukrainian combatants and military equipment in Sumy Oblast (Korenek, Slavhorod, Khrenovka), as well as Kharkiv and Chernihiv Oblasts, indicating ongoing RF strike operations. UA Air Force reports enemy UAVs inbound from Belgorod Oblast to southern Sumy Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Russia is attempting to retake Kindrativka from Kursk Oblast, providing drone footage of circular impact craters and a munition drop causing an explosion, indicating continued fighting for this recently liberated settlement. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports the Russian army has expanded its zone of control near Myropillia in Sumy Oblast, showing a map indicating territorial gains. New intelligence from UA Air Force reports enemy UAVs from Kursk Oblast inbound to Sumy Oblast. NEW INTEL: UA Air Force reports KABs inbound to Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: STERNENKO reports on drone safety in Rostov Oblast, indicating continued UA cross-border drone activity, possibly from Sumy direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: STERNENKO reports a threat of strike UAVs from the North, likely impacting Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Два майора posts video of "Preparation. Sumy direction," showing soldiers training. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: UA Air Force reports a group of Shahed drones in central Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chernihiv Oblast: High-speed missile detected in Southern Chernihiv Oblast. Fast moving target on Chernihiv Oblast. UA Air Force (Повітряні Сили ЗС України) reports an enemy UAV in southern Chernihiv region, with possible air defense activity. Ballistic missile threat from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv has been lifted, but a new high-speed target from the region towards Kyiv has been detected. Explosion reported near Pryluky, Chernihiv Oblast by Ukrainian monitoring channels. Enemy reconnaissance UAV detected in central Chernihiv Oblast. Drone footage from Colonelcassad claims destruction of Ukrainian combatants and military equipment in Chernihiv Oblast (Korenek, Slavhorod, Khrenovka), as well as Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, indicating ongoing RF strike operations. UA Air Force reports an enemy UAV on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. UA Air Force (Повітряні Сили ЗС України) reports an enemy UAV in southeastern Chernihiv Oblast moving westward. New intelligence from Операция Z (RF source) claims Russian army struck Pryluky airbase, targeting a US "Black Hawk" UH-60 of GUR special forces, providing a low-resolution thermal image. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim, requires verification).
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: High-speed missile targeting Vinnytsia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alert lifted. Aviation munitions threat. Commemoration ceremony for those who will not return from captivity. Enemy reconnaissance UAV detected in Zaporizhzhia area, potentially serving as a spotter, and now in northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Bilohirya, Novoandriyivka, Zarichne, Stepnohirsk. TASS reports a 2-year-old child injured in Zaporizhzhia due to a UA strike on a private house. Дневник Десантника reports Russian soldiers from the 7th Airborne Division in Zaporizhzhia direction requesting drones for aerial reconnaissance and Starlink satellite internet, highlighting RF logistical needs for tactical operations. Дневник Десантника reports damage to a temporary deployment point of the AFU near Khortytsia Island using "Geraniums" (Shaheds), indicating continued RF targeting of UA temporary bases. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has launched a public health campaign on hepatitis, indicating ongoing civilian services and awareness efforts. Over 800 RF strikes in 24 hours in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with RF increasing pressure on frontline territories and "hunting civilians." New intelligence from UA Air Force reports KABs (guided aerial bombs) inbound for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UA Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration displays images on social media, likely related to entrepreneur support, indicating ongoing civilian initiatives in the region. New intelligence from TASS reports a Ukrainian UAV attacked rescuers in Enerhodar during firefighting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: UA Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues a Red Air Alert. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: UA Air Force reports KABs inbound for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Kamenskoye Sector: Heavy assaults continue near Plavni and Stepnohirsk. RF launches guided aerial bombs towards the border of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts, with a vector towards southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: Enemy UAV detected south of Mykolaiv, possible PPO activity. RBC-Ukraine reports Mykolaiv may be without water for two days. Mykolaivskiy Vanok (UA source) reports the launch of "Club MikVisti", a local media project, indicating continued local activity and communication. Mykolaivskiy Vanok (UA source) reports drone footage showing two groups of RF soldiers, followed by an explosion and fire, claiming 4,687 RF losses in July, indicating continued UA offensive action. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Odesa Oblast: UA Naval Forces warn civilians against swimming during Shahed attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad reports a Ukrainian sea mine washed ashore on Odesa beach after a storm, implying a threat to civilian safety. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poland: Has scrambled fighter jets due to the missile attack on Ukraine. Dva mayora (RF source) discusses a "Poland forgot about Abrams repair" narrative, suggesting a focus on perceived Polish military weakness related to Western equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia:
  • Internal Security & Cyber: Aeroflot systems crash, with hackers claiming destruction of entire IT system (Оперативний ЗСУ states 7k servers deleted). This indicates a significant cyber incident affecting a critical Russian civilian infrastructure. Confirmed cancellation of seven Aeroflot flight pairs due to the IT system failure. Belarusian hackers claim responsibility. Peskov states Kremlin is aware of alleged Aeroflot hack, awaiting clarification. The RF General Prosecutor's Office opened a case regarding unlawful access to computer information (Aeroflot hack). Zhukovsky Airport also reports temporary website access restrictions due to ISP issues, potentially linked or coincidental. Роскомнадзор urges reliance on official information regarding WhatsApp and VPN blocking rumors, indicating internal information control efforts. TASS and Новости Москвы report that Mintrans, Rosaviatsiya, and Aeroflot are working to rebook passengers onto "Rossiya" and "Pobeda" airlines, confirming significant operational disruption and mitigation efforts. TASS reports mobile internet restricted in Tyumen Oblast for security purposes, indicating heightened internal security measures and potential for disruption. TASS reports Aeroflot continues operations with "forced restrictions" due to IT infrastructure failure, confirming ongoing impact. Alex Parker Returns and Новости Москвы report that experts estimate Aeroflot system recovery could take up to six months, or even a year if backup issues persist, highlighting severe, long-term disruption. Fighterbomber confirms the Aeroflot hack is causing some planes to be unable to take off, further emphasizing the operational impact. TASS reports Gorelkin's comment that large companies should not relax on cybersecurity. Fighterbomber attributes the Aeroflot crash to low salaries of Aeroflot IT staff. TASS reports Aeroflot cancelled 54 paired flights for July 28, with 206 of 260 scheduled flights preparing for execution. Mintrans states Aeroflot will reduce multi-frequency flights for new cancellations and is working on pricing. TASS and ASTRA show videos of busy Sheremetyevo Airport, indicating disruptions are causing passenger queues and rebooking efforts. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the Aeroflot CEO did not change his password since 2022, which allegedly aided "cyber partisans" in penetrating the system, indicating a significant security lapse. TASS reports that a personal data leak of Aeroflot clients has not been confirmed by Roskomnadzor. Fighterbomber expressing continued skepticism about the necessity of Aeroflot and public concern for its issues. New intelligence from Colonelcassad reports on the cyberattack on Aeroflot. ASTRA reports mobile internet in Udmurtia has been disconnected for three days with authorities stating it will be "indefinite," indicating expanded internal communication restrictions. Север.Реалии (UA/RF-critical source) shares a video confirming Aeroflot cancellations and delays due to a cyberattack claimed by pro-Ukrainian groups Silent Crow and Belarusian Cyberpartisans, claiming destruction of thousands of servers and access to critical systems, confirming the severity of the incident. TASS reports that Aeroflot cancelled 7 pairs of flights for July 29, indicating continued disruptions. New intelligence from TASS reports Zhukovsky Airport's website access has been restored after restrictions. NEW INTEL: Два майора discusses the Aeroflot hack, framing it within broader threats to critical information. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports Russian stocks plummeted after Trump's statement about reducing the deadline for Putin, indicating financial market volatility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports another system failure in Russia, with residents complaining about inability to process documents, indicating further domestic service disruptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns reports a proposal for a state-controlled VPN in Russia with Gosuslugi authorization, indicating tightened internet control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: ASTRA reports that "Русская община" (Russian Community) disrupted an economic lecture by libertarians about Argentina in Rostov. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Astrakhan: A section of a residential building collapsed from 1st to 5th floor due to a gas explosion. 15 people evacuated. TASS reports one person stressed, not three injured, and no fatalities from the collapse, contradicting earlier reports but confirming the incident. Risk of repeated collapses exists. Authorities state no gas leak is currently fixed in the collapsed building, contradicting initial explosion theory. TASS now reports a criminal case opened after the building collapse in Astrakhan. The building was recognized as dilapidated in 2019, highlighting infrastructure neglect. RF General Prosecutor's Office will assess safety provisions for citizens after Astrakhan collapse. TASS released a video showing UAVs being used for surveying the rubble of the collapsed building, indicating drone deployment for civilian emergency response. The RF Governor of Astrakhan has declared a state of emergency at the site of the partial building collapse. TASS reports that residents of the collapsed building will be allowed back into their apartments after debris removal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal RF: Russian Embassy recommends avoiding travel to "problematic territories" amid Cambodia-Thailand conflict. Death of the Chairman of the RF Supreme Court confirmed. Investigations into embezzlement continue, with TASS reporting state prosecution requesting 8-12 years for corruption in the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD), including Lieutenant General Sergey Umnov. Belgorod Oblast Governor Galdkov interrupted a meeting due to an air raid alarm. New intelligence from TASS reports a civilian was injured due to a UA drone attack on a car in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. Reports of a serviceman assaulting a child and killing a woman in Tambov Oblast, indicating potential discipline issues or criminal behavior among military personnel. Prosecution of lawyer Nikolai Polozov (listed as foreign agent) approved, case sent to court. Teenagers in Novosibirsk attempted to poison a man. Chechen authorities detained a teenager for tearing a portrait of Akhmat Kadyrov. "Дневник Десантника" reports a serviceman in RF fined 2.5 million rubles for "defeatist conversations," indicating strict control over dissent. "Два майора" continues their "Soldier's Daily Life" rubric with photos of cats, possibly intended as morale-boosting or propaganda content for military audiences. "Два майора" also published a video showing a military convoy with a vehicle experiencing exhaust flares/sparks, under the rubric "Humor from the Border," which may indicate an attempt to normalize or downplay logistical issues. TASS reports 5 people, including one minor, sentenced to 4-19 years in strict regime colony, though context is unclear. TASS reports temporary cessation of alcohol sales in 58 "Krasnoye & Belye" stores in Vologda Oblast, though cause is unclear. TASS reports the defense of Karapetyan (businessman) sent letters to the Prosecutor General and prosecutor's office requesting a change in his preventive measure. All working chats of Kemerovo region government, local administrations, and structural divisions to be transferred to "Max" messenger. RF officials arrived in Switzerland for a forum, including Matviyenko, Slutsky, and Tolstoy. Permanent memorial for An-24 crash victims to appear in Amur region. News from Moscow reports a major water pipe rupture from a construction site, creating a "fountain" - this is a civilian infrastructure issue but indicates potential for domestic disruptions. TASS reports German police confirmed no Russians among train crash victims. News from Moscow reports that Russians will be able to opt out of mass mailings starting August 1. TASS photo message on Slutsky discussing banning abortions, except for medical reasons, indicating domestic social policy focus. News from Новости Москвы shows a Russian billiards club opening, a civilian event. "Два майора" has posted a video depicting what appears to be a recreational swimming event with an energy drink featuring military slogans, possibly targeting a younger audience for patriotic or military-themed lifestyle promotion. New intelligence from ASTRA confirms "Red & White" stores in Vologda Oblast stopped selling alcohol. New intelligence from Mash na Donbasse features a volunteer masseur working with military personnel on the front, framing it as a morale-boosting and supportive activity. New intelligence from Новости Москвы confirms the release of a trailer for "Avatar: Fire and Ash," which is irrelevant to military operations. Gleb Nikitin (RF official) reports discussing road network development and maintenance in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast with the Russian Minister of Transport. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports the evacuation of the "Zvezdny" shopping center in Moscow, indicating a potential internal security alert or incident. Gleb Nikitin (RF official) posts about industrial development, infrastructure, microelectronics, and shipbuilding cooperation with Belarus in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, indicating continued focus on economic and strategic partnerships. Alex Parker Returns and Север.Реалии (UA/RF-critical source) report on a new decree banning migrants from working in taxi services in St. Petersburg, framed as a manifestation of "Russian fascism." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from ASTRA reports a military commissariat inspector in Bryansk Oblast persuaded a man to marry her and go to the "SVO," where he was killed. This highlights potential coercive recruitment tactics. NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad reports three young people were detained for damaging the "Blockade Tram" monument in St. Petersburg, confirming an act of vandalism and internal policing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: ASTRA reports migrants are banned from working as taxi drivers in St. Petersburg, confirming an internal policy decision with social and economic implications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns provides video of the Director of the Sevastopol Aquarium-Museum, Yuri Kravtsov, stating that the portrait of Kadyrov was removed by an unknown man and that such actions "smell of extremism." Kravtsov ordered the portrait returned, arguing Kadyrov has a right to be among great commanders, linking the "SVO" to WWII. This indicates an internal ideological struggle regarding Kadyrov's public image and the war's narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports the head of Russia's Federation Council (Matviyenko) arrived in Switzerland, with Ukraine's MFA reminding her that her place is in The Hague. This indicates continued Ukrainian diplomatic pressure and attempts to hold RF officials accountable. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: НгП раZVедка posts photo messages about "time for fun" and childhood games, possibly to distract from military news or for morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Дневник Десантника posts a video captioned "Paratrooper brotherhood, family!", displaying soldiers and combat footage, likely a morale-boosting and recruitment message. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Leningrad Oblast: TASS reports one person died and three were injured due to the drone attack, confirming significant impact from UA drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov Oblast: RF PVO forces destroyed four Ukrainian UAVs overnight. Video shows grass burning and explosions in Rostov region, likely related to recent UA drone activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnodar Krai: FSB claims detention of three GUR agents, one of whom confessed to setting fire to military facilities, including a train, in Maryankovsky village for $200-250 USD per act. ASTRA reports on this detention. RF military sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) issue a warning about an anticipated "massive attack on our territories," referencing a previous attack on Adler and Sochi. Дневник Десантника released video footage of the detention of three alleged Kyiv agents in Krasnodar Krai, accused of planning arson attacks on transport and communication facilities, confirming RF counter-intelligence claims. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ussuriysk (Primorye): A veteran with seven previous convictions is now a mentor to schoolchildren, indicating a governmental push for military-patriotic education despite individuals' criminal histories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tver Oblast: A veteran who signed the Reichstag (WWII) has died. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Saratov Oblast: A man killed in a gas explosion in a residential building in Saratov reportedly had alcohol problems. This aligns with the pattern of domestic incidents being attributed to non-combat reasons. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • DNR (Occupied): Russian officials promise to increase the capacity of the "Don-Donbass" canal, indicating a focus on infrastructure and resource management in occupied territories. Colonelcassad shared several videos depicting humanitarian aid delivery to Toshkovka and other conflict-affected areas, including religious supplies to a church, reinforcing the narrative of rebuilding and support for occupied territories. Operatsiya Z (RF source) provides photo messages related to the restoration of the Kazan Mother of God Monastery, indicating a focus on religious and cultural restoration in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow: Patriarch Kirill led a religious procession from the Kremlin for the Day of the Baptism of Rus', including military personnel. The "Big Clay N4" sculpture in Moscow has been dismantled; Новости Москвы shows satirical alternatives, indicating ongoing domestic cultural commentary, but no military relevance. Rybar reports "Provocation in Sretensky Monastery", possibly referring to an incident related to the religious procession. Два майора posted videos from the Sretensky Monastery and Big Lubyanka, indicating public events or potential monitoring. TASS published video of the "Big Clay N4" sculpture being dismantled at GEC-2 embankment, confirming a non-military, civilian event. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports the evacuation of the "Zvezdny" shopping center in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Bryansk Oblast: Governor reports "inhumane crimes against peaceful citizens" by the "Kyiv regime," likely referencing Ukrainian shelling or drone activity near the border. Two Maj. posts image of Bryansk Oblast border area, specifically "village Podlesnye Nov..." New intelligence from ASTRA reports a military commissariat inspector in Bryansk Oblast persuaded a man to marry her and go to the "SVO," where he was killed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Belgorod Oblast (RF): Head of "Kharkiv Military-Civilian Administration" (RF-installed) Ganichev claims a civilian was killed in Tavolzhanka, Kharkiv Oblast, by a UA drone attack. New intelligence from TASS reports a civilian was injured due to a UA drone attack on a car in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Crimean Bridge: Vehicle traffic has been restored. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vilnius (Lithuania): Tsaplienko (UA source) reports a Russian "Gerbera" UAV (also called "Shahed on minimal" or "Geran-2") flying over the center of Vilnius, claiming Russia is testing NATO's resilience. This, if true, would be a significant and highly provocative act by Russia against a NATO member state. Basurin о главном (RF source) reports an incident with an unidentified drone over Vilnius causing concern in Lithuania, highlighting the fragility of the situation on the border with Belarus, confirming the event from an RF perspective but with a focus on its impact. New intelligence from Alex Parker Returns (RF source) provides video claiming a "Gerbera" reconnaissance drone flew over Vilnius from Belarus, and frames it as a positive, minor incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - regarding the report itself, still MEDIUM on confirmation of UAV type and intent, now MEDIUM-HIGH due to additional RF source)
  • Jurmala (Latvia): New video from "Два майора" shows Laima Vaikule calling for arms supplies to Ukraine at a festival, with RF sources labeling her as an "enemy." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kstovo (Nizhny Novgorod Oblast): STERNENKO (UA source) reports a fire at the 210th Military Training Center in Kstovo, which trains sappers, pontoon bridge specialists, camouflage specialists, and explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) personnel. Footage shows thick black smoke, indicating a significant fire. New intelligence from ASTRA reports a fire at a military center near Nizhny Novgorod, with the Ministry of Emergency Situations (MCHS) calling it a burning garage, indicating an attempt by RF authorities to downplay the incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kursk Oblast: TASS reports RZD (Russian Railways) completed construction of a new single-track railway overpass in Kursk Oblast in record time after a sabotage incident on June 1, 2025. This highlights rapid repair capabilities for key logistical infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Udmurtia: ASTRA reports mobile internet in Udmurtia has been disconnected for three days with authorities stating it will be "indefinite." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Federal Level (Logistics): TASS reports the Russian government has restricted gasoline exports for oil product manufacturers until August 31. ASTRA confirms the ban on gasoline exports until August 31. STERNENKO (UA source) confirms RF has banned gasoline exports for oil product manufacturers until August 31. TASS reports the Russian government has decided to close 20 checkpoints on the border with Ukraine starting August 1. ASTRA confirms the closure of 20 checkpoints. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) confirms the gasoline export ban. New intelligence from Два майора and Операция Z confirm Russia will close 20 checkpoints on the border with Ukraine from August 1. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Yemen (Houthi activity): TASS and ASTRA report that Houthis evacuated at least 10 crew members, including a Russian citizen, from the sunken vessel "Eternity C" to Yemen. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • London: Two killed, two injured in knife attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Regional:
  • Cambodia-Thailand: Rybar reports renewed escalation on the border. TASS reports a ceasefire regime on the border territory between Thailand and Cambodia entered into force after five days of military clashes, indicating a de-escalation. New intelligence from RBC-Ukraine reports Trump claiming credit for the ceasefire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Estonia: TASS reports Estonian MFA summoned Russian Charge d'Affaires to protest alleged border violation by RF border vessel. Операция Z (RF source) confirms Estonia's claim of a Russian border vessel violating maritime borders. New intelligence from РБК-Україна reports RF border vessel violated maritime border and Tallinn reacted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Israel: New intelligence from TASS confirms Russian President Putin spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • United Kingdom: TASS reports the USA delivered nuclear weapons to Britain on an aircraft with transponders activated to signal Russia. ASTRA provides a photo message with the caption "USA delivered nuclear weapons to Britain for the first first time since 2008." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports US delivered nuclear weapons to Britain on an aircraft with transponders demonstratively turned on, citing Bloomberg. New intelligence from Операция Z and Дневник Десантника confirms the US delivery of nuclear weapons to Britain with transponders active, framed as a signal to Russia. New intelligence from STERNENKO confirms the US delivery of nuclear weapons to UK. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Germany: Voin DV (RF source) reports that Germany plans to purchase Tomahawk cruise missiles and Typhon launchers from the USA, indicating Western military build-up and potential for further arms transfers to Ukraine. New intelligence from РБК-Україна reports on a train accident in Germany with five Ukrainians among passengers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kazakhstan: TASS reports the discovery of fragments of a military helicopter, Eurocopter EC-145, during a search operation in Kazakhstan, indicating a non-combat aviation incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Venezuela: New intelligence from Два майора and Рыбарь reports "Bad Maduro" songs from the White House, likely referring to US attempts to influence Venezuelan politics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Kyiv: Strong thunderstorms and heavy rain forecasted for the rest of the day. This could impact aerial reconnaissance, drone operations, and ground mobility within the city, potentially limiting visibility for both offensive and defensive actions. It has also caused power outages for nearly 30,000 families, which could complicate recovery efforts from missile strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Turkey (Regional): Continued large-scale forest fires, but Russian tour operators report no cancellations or early returns, indicating limited impact on civilian travel from Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• No other new significant weather or environmental factors reported that would critically impact current operations in Ukraine.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF Force Dispositions:
  • Air Assets: Multiple strategic bombers (6x Tu-95MS, 2x Tu-160 completing pre-launch maneuvers) and MiG-31K aircraft (3x airborne) currently posing a nationwide missile threat. Dozens of strike drones (Shaheds) also in the air. Tactical aviation active in Eastern and North-Eastern directions, launching guided aerial bombs (KABs) on Sumy Oblast and border of Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk, vectoring to southern Dnipropetrovsk. RF aviation conducted airstrikes in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts. Russian MoD and Dnipro Desantnika claims "complex strike" on five oblasts. Russian MoD claims Kinzhal missile strike on military airfield and ammunition depot, and states this was a "group strike with long-range air-based high-precision weapons, including Kinzhal air-ballistic hypersonic missiles, as well as attack unmanned aerial vehicles". "Дневник Десантника" claims Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) destroyed AFU temporary deployment points in DNR and Kharkiv Oblast using ODAB-1500 and FAB-500 aerial bombs, confirming aerial bombardment in these areas. MoD Russia releases video of artillerymen operating a 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzer with drone reconnaissance, indicating continued air-ground coordination. RF MoD claims "Rubikon" drones destroyed foreign-made UA drones in the SVO zone, showing footage of multiple UA drone types. Дневник Десантника reports a strike on a UA temporary deployment point near Khortytsia Island using "Geraniums" (Shaheds), providing video evidence of the aerial strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) A group of enemy strike UAVs inbound from Belgorod Oblast to Kharkiv Oblast. RF is launching guided aerial bombs (KABs) towards Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. New intelligence from UA Air Force reports KABs inbound for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. New intelligence from Военкор Котенок claims FPV drones on fiber optics are becoming a trend in the SVO zone, suggesting advancements in RF drone capabilities. "ZONA SVO" reports on the work of graduates from the "Akhmat" special forces UAV training center, with a video from a drone showing surveillance and engagement of targets in a wooded area, displaying Ukrainian flags and text identifying the target as "VSU fighter," suggesting continued RF special forces drone operations. UA Air Force (Повітряні Сили ЗС України) reports an enemy UAV in southeastern Chernihiv Oblast moving westward. New intelligence from Colonelcassad shows drone footage featuring "Rubikon" and "Baba-Yaga" drones conducting reconnaissance and strikes, confirming advanced drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from Операция Z (RF source) claims Russian army struck Pryluky airbase, targeting a US "Black Hawk" UH-60 of GUR special forces, providing a low-resolution thermal image. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim, requires verification). NEW INTEL: UA Air Force reports KABs inbound to Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: STERNENKO reports threat of strike UAVs from the North, likely impacting Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: UA Air Force reports KABs inbound for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: UA Air Force reports a group of Shahed drones in central Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Forces: Persistent offensive pressure on the Pokrovsk (Donetsk) axis, including advances in Dimitrov (Myrnohrad), Rodinskoye, and Krasnolimansky directions. Confirmed claims of liberation of Boykivka and Belhiyka by RF MoD and Kotsnews ("Tsentr Group's units liberated"). TASS reports UA forces withdrawn from Boykivka to third line of defense. Continued attempts to control island zone in the Dnieper delta (Kherson). Artillery of 1198th Motorized Rifle Regiment (35th Army Group "Vostok") active in South Donetsk direction. RF TOS-2 "Tosochka" heavy flamethrower systems observed in night operations. Engaged in 9 assaults on Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. Heavy assaults continue near Plavni and Stepnohirsk on the Kamenskoye sector of Zaporizhzhia. RF sources show "Zaba" drone operators (likely Tula Guards Airborne formation) conducting combat work using reconnaissance drones and "free hunting" mode, demonstrating continued tactical drone operations. Сташе Эдды posted a video of "Zaba" drone operators claiming destruction of Leopard tanks and M109 SPGs. RF (Basurin) claims their drones are smarter, more EW-resistant, and can self-identify targets. WarGonzo highlights "Grad" artillery of the 41st Motorized Rifle Regiment, 44th Army Corps, on the front line. Операция Z provides video footage of Russian drones (labelled "Русские дроны") destroying equipment and positions "along the entire front line", indicating widespread tactical drone activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports assault groups advancing in forests near Melovoye, Kharkiv Oblast, indicating active ground efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV video claims drone operators of 77th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion, 127th Motorized Rifle Division, 5th Army Group "Vostok" destroyed a pre-mined bridge near Kamyshevakha, suggesting engineer-reconnaissance capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника reports 7th Airborne Division in Zaporizhzhia direction is requesting drones and Starlink, suggesting these units are actively operating but facing equipment shortfalls. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) A new drone video from Voin DV shows a camouflaged artillery piece, likely a towed howitzer, observed by a pro-Russian drone, indicating continued ISR and potential targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kadyrov's "Zapad-AKHMAT" battalion is active near Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, conducting operations in private homes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Podubny reports "Vostok" group UAV operators striking UA transport on approaches to Oleksandrohrad (border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), using strike drones against moving and static targets, claiming UA logistics are difficult here. This indicates continued RF efforts to interdict UA logistics using drones. Voin DV reports scouts of the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, Vostok Group of Forces, destroyed a Ukrainian armored vehicle northwest of Yanvarsky. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews video of a Russian soldier engaging a drone and reporting "Ya 300!" indicates that tactical C2 might be breaking down in immediate drone threats, leading to individual, desperate actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Over 800 RF strikes in 24 hours in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating sustained and intense ground pressure. Butusov Plus video shows Ukrainian assault and reconnaissance units clearing a settlement of occupiers, implying successful UA ground operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo indicates a tactical debate on the relevance of tanks in modern warfare, suggesting RF is analyzing and adapting their armored tactics in response to drone threats. New intelligence from Alex Parker Returns shows a first-person perspective video of a soldier navigating a wooded area with a targeting reticle, suggesting active combat or reconnaissance, possibly from an RF perspective given the source. New intelligence from Бутусов ПЛЮС shows extensive damage to a light utility vehicle (possibly UAZ) after a military engagement, indicating RF losses. MoD Russia video shows a soldier speaking about providing first aid to both Russian and Ukrainian wounded, claiming UA commanders abandon their wounded. This is likely a propaganda effort, but indicates RF forces are encountering Ukrainian wounded on the battlefield. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki shares a video titled "Evacuation of the Wounded," showing two individuals in military-style camouflage on a motorcycle, suggesting movement of personnel in a conflict zone. Бутусов ПЛЮС (UA source) provides a photo message captioned "Don't push the horses," showing a Russian soldier with a horse about to be hit by a drone, indicating RF forces are using animals for logistics or transport in Donetsk Oblast, and are vulnerable to drone attacks. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Russia attempting to retake Kindrativka from Kursk Oblast, providing drone footage of circular impact craters and a munition drop causing an explosion, indicating continued fighting for this recently liberated settlement. Basurin о главном (RF source) claims UA forces surrendered Maliivka in Dnipropetropetsky Oblast, presenting imagery of "dragon's teeth" obstacles, implying RF ground gains. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim). Colonelcassad (RF source) reports on the combat work of scouts from the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade "Vostok" destroying a Humvee on the South Donetsk direction, demonstrating RF ground offensive capabilities. Slyvochny kapriz (RF source) reports on Kurakhovo - Alekseevka on 28.07.25, with images showing a significant gathering of personnel and equipment, indicating a potential force concentration. Старише Эдди (RF source) provides a video from inside a vehicle where a soldier reports "Ya 300!" (I am wounded) while engaging a drone, indicating direct drone threats to ground forces. Mykolaivskiy Vanok (UA source) provides drone footage of a military engagement in a wooded area, showing two groups of soldiers targeted by an explosion, claiming 4,687 RF losses in July, indicating continued UA offensive action. New intelligence from Zona SVO indicates two Russian servicemen speaking about defending the motherland and signing contracts, possibly indicating recruitment efforts or current personnel status. New intelligence from Воин DV claims the UA 25th Brigade is losing shelters in Sukhiy Yar, supporting RF claims of successful offensive operations. New intelligence from Бутусов ПЛЮС shows Ukrainian soldiers using drones to supply frontline positions with essential items, highlighting UA tactical adaptation for logistics. New intelligence from Бутусов ПЛЮС shows drone footage of vehicles being struck by munitions, confirming continued effective UA drone operations against RF logistics and transport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shows an aerial view of a naval vessel or pontoon bridge being struck, suggesting RF has deployed or targeted such assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad (Boris Rozhin) discusses Russian forces' success in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), claiming RF DRGs have entered the city and have fire control over a key supply road near Rodinskoye. This indicates RF is demonstrating capability to push deep and operationally encircle UA forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video footage captioned "Assault and reconnaissance units clearing the settlement of occupiers," indicating ongoing UA ground operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Операция Z (citing Russkaya Vesna) states "Russian Army breaking through to Siversk," indicating a new RF offensive axis or intensified pressure. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). NEW INTEL: Два майора posts a video showcasing "Frontline Armor" with Russian soldiers and a BM-21 Grad MLRS, indicating continued ground force deployment and morale-boosting efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Два майора posts video of "Preparation. Sumy direction," showing soldiers undergoing rigorous training. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: "Сливочный каприз" reports RF ground forces active near Chasiv Yar and Shevchenko. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Рыбарь posts an updated map showing the situation as of 28 JUL 25, including a detailed view of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad direction, indicating active operations and disputed areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval: "July Storm" exercise concluded. Testing of mobile air defense pickup truck by Black Sea Fleet personnel observed. Russian Navy Day celebrations included satirical displays by Ukrainian sources, highlighting the perceived degradation of the RF Black Sea Fleet. Colonelcassad posts video showing air raid alert tests in Sevastopol, indicating heightened security posture in Crimea. New intelligence from TASS reports Estonian MFA summoned Russian Charge d'Affaires to protest alleged border violation by RF border vessel. RBC-Ukraine reports that RF has reduced Kalibr attacks from the Black Sea due to lack of missile carriers. Операция Z (RF source) confirms Estonia's claim of a Russian border vessel violating maritime borders, indicating continued RF probing of NATO sea borders. Kotsnews (RF source) reports a poll where 39% of subscribers consider "Tam za tumanami" by Lyube the best song about military sailors, indicating morale-boosting efforts for naval personnel. New intelligence from Дневник Десантника indicates a NATO drone is still conducting reconnaissance over the Black Sea. New intelligence from РБК-Україна reports an RF border vessel violated Estonia's maritime border. New intelligence from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shows a naval vessel, likely a pontoon bridge or barge, being struck by an explosive device, attributed to Russian sources, suggesting RF has deployed or targeted such assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad reports a Ukrainian sea mine washed ashore on Odesa beach after a storm. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Intelligence/Reconnaissance: Enemy reconnaissance UAVs detected over Sumy (Romny, Konotop, Southern Sumy), Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia (Northern Zaporizhzhia), and central Chernihiv Oblasts. Reconnaissance drone providing tactical intelligence on Pokrovsk. Enemy UAV detected south of Mykolaiv. UA Air Force reports an enemy UAV in southern Chernihiv region. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" published a video titled "Fighting with fiber-optic drones," which appears to be ground-level footage showing a drone's perspective in a wooded area, ending with what sounds like gunfire/explosion. This may indicate RF efforts to counter advanced UA drones or their own development in this area. Voin DV video shows drone observation of RF artillery. STERNENKO's video of "Posipaki" and "Wild Hornets" drone operators suggests continued UA aerial reconnaissance and strike capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews posted a video from a first-person perspective inside a vehicle, where an individual engages a drone in the sky, shouting "Ya 300!" (I am a casualty). This indicates ongoing close-range counter-drone activity by RF ground elements, and potential for psychological distress among RF personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from Военкор Котенок claims FPV drones on fiber optics are becoming a trend, highlighting a potential advancement in RF ISR/strike capabilities, possibly aimed at improving resilience against EW. Voin DV has released videos with captions "Attention! Be Careful, Deadly Flower!" and drone footage showing reconnaissance or surveillance activity, including a dark object partially obscured in foliage, suggesting new intelligence collection efforts or warning about enemy drone activity. "ZONA SVO" reports on "Akhmat" special forces UAV training, showing drone footage of surveillance and engagement. New intelligence from Alex Parker Returns provides video claiming a "Gerbera" reconnaissance drone flew over Vilnius from Belarus. New intelligence from Дневник Десантника indicates a NATO drone is still conducting reconnaissance over the Black Sea. New intelligence from Colonelcassad shows drone footage featuring "Rubikon" and "Baba-Yaga" drones conducting reconnaissance and strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Control Measures:
  • Ukraine-wide Air Alert: Nationwide missile danger due to MiG-31K launch. Air raid alerts lifted across multiple oblasts after threat abatement, including ballistic threat lifted from Kyiv. New air raid alerts for Kyiv and several oblasts due to ballistic missile threat from Chernihiv. An "arrival" has been reported in Kyiv, followed by an "all clear." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Some Kinzhals are still unaccounted for by UA sources, though RF claims successful strikes. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Regional Air Alerts: Ongoing air raid alerts and PPO activity in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytska, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Sumy, Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, and Belgorod Oblasts (RF). Kharkiv area under UAV alert. Zaporizhzhia under "UVA" (uncrewed aerial vehicle) alert. Mykolaiv south also under UAV threat. Southern Chernihiv region under UAV alert. Ballistic threat to Pryluky (Poltava Oblast) confirmed by RF sources reporting an explosion there. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs confirmed in Sumy and Kharkiv. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports air raid alert lifted. UA Air Force (Повітряні Силі ЗС України) reports an enemy UAV in southeastern Chernihiv Oblast moving westward. New intelligence from UA Air Force reports enemy UAVs from Kursk Oblast inbound to Sumy Oblast. New intelligence from UA Air Force reports KABs inbound to Donetsk Oblast. New intelligence from UA Air Force reports enemy UAVs from Belgorod Oblast inbound to Northern Kharkiv Oblast. NEW INTEL: UA Air Force reports KABs inbound to Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: STERNENKO reports threat of strike UAVs from the North, likely impacting Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: UA Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues a Red Air Alert. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: UA Air Force reports KABs inbound for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: UA Air Force reports a group of Shahed drones in central Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns reports Donetsk under massive strike, with power outages. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Mash na Donbasse reports explosions in Donetsk (Kuibyshevsky district), power outages, and enemy drones working with PVO. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Internal Internet/Communication Restrictions: Mobile internet restricted in Tyumen Oblast for security. Kemerovo region government to move all working chats to "Max" messenger. Russians will be able to opt out of mass mailings from August 1. ASTRA reports mobile internet in Udmurtia has been disconnected for three days with authorities stating it will be "indefinite." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports another system failure in Russia, with residents complaining about inability to process documents, indicating further domestic service disruptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns reports a proposal for a state-controlled VPN in Russia with Gosuslugi authorization, indicating tightened internet control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Internal Travel Restrictions: TASS reports temporary cessation of alcohol sales in 58 stores in Vologda Oblast, though cause is unclear, it indicates local administrative controls. New intelligence from ASTRA confirms "Red & White" stores in Vologda Oblast stopped selling alcohol. TASS reports that taxi services and carsharing in St. Petersburg are now prohibited from hiring foreign citizens working under patents, indicating new internal labor and migration controls that could impact personnel movement. NEW INTEL: ASTRA reports migrants banned from working as taxi drivers in St. Petersburg. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Crimea: Air raid alert system tests conducted in Sevastopol. Crimean bridge vehicle traffic restored. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Federal Level (Logistics): TASS reports the Russian government has restricted gasoline exports for oil product manufacturers until August 31. ASTRA confirms the ban on gasoline exports until August 31. STERNENKO (UA source) confirms RF has banned gasoline exports for oil product manufacturers until August 31. TASS reports the Russian government has decided to close 20 checkpoints on the border with Ukraine starting August 1. ASTRA confirms the closure of 20 checkpoints. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) confirms the gasoline export ban. New intelligence from Два майора and Операция Z confirm Russia will close 20 checkpoints on the border with Ukraine from August 1. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Astrakhan: The RF Governor of Astrakhan has declared a state of emergency at the site of the partial building collapse. TASS reports that residents of the collapsed building will be allowed back into their apartments after debris removal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow: НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports the evacuation of the "Zvezdny" shopping center in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov Oblast (RF): NEW INTEL: ASTRA reports "Русская община" (Russian Community) disrupted an economic lecture by libertarians about Argentina in Rostov. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Air/Missile/UAV: Demonstrated capability for large-scale, coordinated missile and drone strikes across the depth of Ukraine, utilizing strategic aviation, MiG-31K (Kinzhal-capable), and Shahed UAVs. Confirmed successful hits in Kyiv, Starokostiantyniv, and the "Zvezda" ammunition plant in Shostka. RF MoD explicitly claims a "group strike" using Kinzhals and UAVs on a military airfield and ammunition depot. "Дневник Десантника" claims Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) destroyed AFU temporary deployment points in DNR and Kharkiv Oblast using ODAB-1500 and FAB-500 aerial bombs, indicating continued deep strike capabilities. Continued, active air defense against UA drones within Russia (Rostov, Chernihiv). RF MoD claims destruction of various foreign-made UA drones by "Rubikon" drones, demonstrating counter-drone capabilities. Expanding drone production (Alabuga, as highlighted by WarGonzo) and improving drone intelligence and EW resistance, with claims of "smarter" and more EW-resistant drones (Basurin). MoD Russia video demonstrates effective artillery operations supported by aerial reconnaissance. Дневник Десантника footage of "Geranium" strike on Khortytsia Island reinforces deep strike capability. TASS released a video confirming drone usage for surveying a collapsed building in Astrakhan, indicating multi-purpose drone capabilities. Tsaplienko (UA source) reports a Russian "Gerbera" (Shahed variant) UAV flying over Vilnius, Lithuania, suggesting an intent to test NATO air defense and expanded range/payload capabilities, if confirmed. RF is launching KABs towards Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Colonelcassad drone footage claims destruction of Ukrainian combatants and military equipment in Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts. New intelligence from UA Air Force reports KABs incoming for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. New intelligence from РБК-Україна reports Fyodorov stating Russia is modernizing Shaheds. New intelligence from Оперативний ЗСУ reports Fyodorov stating Russia will soon switch to jet drones. New intelligence from Военкор Котенок indicates FPV drones on fiber optics are a new trend, potentially limiting EW effectiveness against these systems. RBC-Ukraine reports a reduction in Kalibr attacks from the Black Sea due to a lack of missile carriers, indicating a potential constraint in this specific long-range strike capability. "ZONA SVO" reports on "Akhmat" special forces UAV training, with video showing drone operations against Ukrainian targets. Север.Реалии (UA/RF-critical source) confirms drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and residential buildings, highlighting destructive power and impact on civilians. New intelligence from Alex Parker Returns provides video claiming a "Gerbera" reconnaissance drone flew over Vilnius from Belarus, implying RF reconnaissance capabilities beyond Ukraine. New intelligence from TASS reports a Ukrainian UAV attacked rescuers in Enerhodar during firefighting, indicating RF's capability to monitor and quickly report on alleged UA attacks on civilians. New intelligence from Дневник Десантника indicates a NATO drone is still conducting reconnaissance over the Black Sea, implying RF counter-ISR capabilities or monitoring of NATO assets. New intelligence from Операция Z (RF source) claims Russian army struck Pryluky airbase, targeting a US "Black Hawk" UH-60 of GUR special forces, providing a low-resolution thermal image. New intelligence from Colonelcassad shows drone footage featuring "Rubikon" and "Baba-Yaga" drones conducting reconnaissance and strikes, confirming advanced drone capabilities. New intelligence from Colonelcassad shows an animated map detailing Russian strikes across Ukraine, confirming widespread aerial campaign capability. NEW INTEL: UA Air Force reports KABs inbound to Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: STERNENKO reports threat of strike UAVs from the North, likely impacting Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: UA Air Force reports KABs inbound for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: UA Air Force reports a group of Shahed drones in central Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Mash na Donbasse reports enemy drones active over Donetsk (Kuibyshevsky district) and RF PVO engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Forces: Persistent offensive pressure on the Pokrovsk (Donetsk) axis, including advances in Dimitrov (Myrnohrad), Rodinskoye, and Krasnolimansky directions. Confirmed claims of liberation of Boykivka and Belhiyka by RF MoD and Kotsnews ("Tsentr Group's units liberated"). TASS reports UA forces withdrawn from Boykivka to third line of defense. Continued use of small assault groups, including those on motorcycles (Butusov video of destroyed motorcycles) and "assault groups advancing in forests" (Colonelcassad, Melovoye) and mobile elements on motorcycles (Evacuation of the Wounded video). Continued deployment of T-90M tanks (previous report). Continued use of TOS-1A (previous report). Continued ground assaults on Avdiivka (previous report). Ongoing development of improvised vehicle protection (rebar cages on tanks) and plan for robotic ground systems ("Shturm"). Demonstrated use of TOS-2 flamethrower systems for effective night engagements against strongholds. Engaged in 9 assaults on Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. Heavy assaults on Zaporizhzhia direction (Plavni and Stepnohirsk). Demonstrated effective tactical drone operations (Tula Guards Airborne "Zaba", Операция Z video, Сташе Эдды video). WarGonzo highlights "Grad" artillery of the 41st Motorized Rifle Regiment, 44th Army Corps, on the front line. Операция Z provides video footage of Russian drones (labelled "Русские дроны") destroying equipment and positions "along the entire front line", indicating widespread tactical drone activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports assault groups advancing in forests near Melovoye, Kharkiv Oblast, indicating active ground efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV video claims drone operators of 77th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion, 127th Motorized Rifle Division, 5th Army Group "Vostok" destroyed a pre-mined bridge near Kamyshevakha, suggesting engineer-reconnaissance capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника reports 7th Airborne Division in Zaporizhzhia direction is requesting drones and Starlink, suggesting these units are actively operating but facing equipment shortfalls. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) A new drone video from Voin DV shows a camouflaged artillery piece, likely a towed howitzer, observed by a pro-Russian drone, indicating continued ISR and potential targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kadyrov's "Zapad-AKHMAT" battalion is active near Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, conducting operations in private homes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Podubny reports "Vostok" group UAV operators striking UA transport on approaches to Oleksandrohrad (border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), using strike drones against moving and static targets, claiming UA logistics are difficult here. This indicates continued RF efforts to interdict UA logistics using drones. Voin DV reports scouts of the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, Vostok Group of Forces, destroyed a Ukrainian armored vehicle northwest of Yanvarsky. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews video of a Russian soldier engaging a drone and reporting "Ya 300!" indicates that RF ground forces are actively attempting to counter UA drones, albeit potentially with significant risk and psychological impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Over 800 RF strikes in 24 hours in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating sustained and intense ground pressure. Butusov Plus video shows Ukrainian assault and reconnaissance units clearing a settlement of occupiers, implying successful UA ground operations. WarGonzo indicates a tactical debate on the relevance of tanks in modern warfare, suggesting RF is analyzing and adapting their armored tactics in response to drone threats. New intelligence from Alex Parker Returns shows a first-person perspective video of a soldier navigating a wooded area with a targeting reticle, suggesting active combat or reconnaissance, possibly from an RF perspective given the source. New intelligence from Бутусов ПЛЮС shows extensive damage to a light utility vehicle (possibly UAZ) after a military engagement, indicating RF losses. MoD Russia video shows a soldier speaking about providing first aid to both Russian and Ukrainian wounded, claiming UA commanders abandon their wounded. This is likely a propaganda effort, but indicates RF forces are encountering Ukrainian wounded on the battlefield. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki shares a video titled "Evacuation of the Wounded," showing two individuals in military-style camouflage on a motorcycle, confirming tactical mobility of personnel in conflict zones. Бутусов ПЛЮС (UA source) provides a photo message captioned "Don't push the horses," showing a Russian soldier with a horse about to be hit by a drone, indicating RF forces are using animals for logistics or transport in Donetsk Oblast, and are vulnerable to drone attacks. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Russia attempting to retake Kindrativka from Kursk Oblast, providing drone footage of circular impact craters and a munition drop causing an explosion, indicating continued fighting for this recently liberated settlement. Basurin о главном (RF source) claims UA forces surrendered Maliivka in Dnipropetropetsky Oblast, presenting imagery of "dragon's teeth" obstacles, implying RF ground gains. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim). Colonelcassad (RF source) reports on the combat work of scouts from the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade "Vostok" destroying a Humvee on the South Donetsk direction, demonstrating RF ground offensive capabilities. Slyvochny kapriz (RF source) reports on Kurakhovo - Alekseevka on 28.07.25, with images showing a significant gathering of personnel and equipment, suggesting a potential force concentration. Старише Эдди (RF source) provides a video from inside a vehicle where a soldier reports "Ya 300!" (I am wounded) while engaging a drone, indicating direct drone threats to ground forces. Mykolaivskiy Vanok (UA source) provides drone footage of a military engagement in a wooded area, showing two groups of soldiers targeted by an explosion, claiming significant RF losses. New intelligence from Zona SVO indicates two Russian servicemen speaking about defending the motherland and signing contracts, possibly indicating recruitment efforts or current personnel status. New intelligence from Воин DV claims the UA 25th Brigade is losing shelters in Sukhiy Yar, indicating continued RF ground success. New intelligence from Бутусов ПЛЮС shows Ukrainian soldiers using drones to supply frontline positions with essential items, highlighting UA tactical adaptation for logistics. New intelligence from Бутусов ПЛЮС shows drone footage of vehicles being struck by munitions, confirming continued effective UA drone operations against RF logistics and transport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shows an aerial view of a naval vessel or pontoon bridge being struck, suggesting RF is adapting to target or use such assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad (Boris Rozhin) discusses Russian forces' success in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), claiming RF DRGs have entered the city and have fire control over a key supply road near Rodinskoye. This indicates RF is demonstrating capability to push deep and operationally encircle UA forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video footage captioned "Assault and reconnaissance units clearing the settlement of occupiers," demonstrating continued UA offensive capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Операция Z (citing Russkaya Vesna) states "Russian Army breaking through to Siversk," indicating an ongoing RF ground offensive. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). NEW INTEL: Два майора posts a video showcasing "Frontline Armor" with Russian soldiers and a BM-21 Grad MLRS, indicating continued ground force deployment and morale-boosting efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Два майора posts video of "Preparation. Sumy direction," showing soldiers undergoing rigorous training. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: "Сливочный каприз" reports RF ground forces active near Chasiv Yar and Shevchenko. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Рыбарь posts an updated map showing the situation as of 28 JUL 25, including a detailed view of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad direction, indicating active operations and disputed areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cyber: Demonstrated capability to conduct disruptive cyberattacks against critical civilian infrastructure (Aeroflot IT systems, Zhukovsky Airport's website access issues attributed to ISP). The RF General Prosecutor's Office opening a case on "unlawful access to computer information" confirms the severity. The need for Russia to rebook Aeroflot passengers onto other carriers indicates significant operational disruption. TASS reports mobile internet restrictions in Tyumen Oblast for security, suggesting RF capability to disrupt communications internally. Expert opinion (Alex Parker Returns, Новости Москвы) indicates long recovery times (6 months to a year) for Aeroflot systems, highlighting severe, long-term disruption. Fighterbomber attributes the Aeroflot hack to low IT salaries, indicating a potential internal weakness leveraged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF plans to transfer all Kemerovo government chats to "Max" messenger indicates efforts to bolster internal secure communication. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports 54 Aeroflot paired flights cancelled, confirming ongoing disruption. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights that the Aeroflot CEO's unchanged password since 2022 contributed to the hack, suggesting a basic security vulnerability that was exploited. Fighterbomber expressing continued skepticism about the necessity of Aeroflot and public concern for its issues. New intelligence from Colonelcassad reports on the Aeroflot cyberattack. ASTRA reports mobile internet in Udmurtia has been disconnected for three three days with authorities stating it will be "indefinite," indicating expanded internal communication restrictions. Север.Реалии (UA/RF-critical source) shares a video confirming Aeroflot cancellations and delays due to a cyberattack claimed by pro-Ukrainian groups Silent Crow and Belarusian Cyberpartisans, claiming destruction of thousands of servers and access to critical systems, confirming the severity of the incident. TASS reports that Aeroflot cancelled 7 pairs of flights for July 29, indicating continued disruptions. New intelligence from TASS reports Zhukovsky Airport's website access has been restored after restrictions. NEW INTEL: Два майора discusses the Aeroflot hack within the context of global threats to critical information, demonstrating RF's awareness and capability to frame such events for strategic messaging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports Russian stocks plummeted after Trump's statement about reducing the deadline for Putin, indicating financial market volatility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports another system failure in Russia, with residents complaining about inability to process documents, indicating further domestic service disruptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns reports a proposal for a state-controlled VPN in Russia with Gosuslugi authorization, indicating tightened internet control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security: Capable of detaining individuals for alleged terror plots and "defeatist conversations," indicating active internal security measures and counter-intelligence against alleged Ukrainian operatives. Continued efforts to control information (Роскомнадзор on WhatsApp/VPN, TASS on Max messenger anti-fraud tech likely to enable further control). Punitive measures for perceived dissent (Chechen teenager detention, serviceman fined for "defeatist conversations"). "Два майора" reported on the detention of a resident in Oleshky for undermining monuments to ATO veterans, which suggests continued counter-sabotage efforts in occupied territories. TASS reports requests for harsh sentences for corruption in MVD, showing internal anti-corruption efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника's video on the FSB detention of alleged GUR agents in Krasnodar Krai demonstrates active counter-terrorism operations against perceived Ukrainian sabotage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from ТАСС confirms Putin spoke by phone with Netanyahu, highlighting continued diplomatic capabilities and international engagement. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports the evacuation of the "Zvezdny" shopping center in Moscow, indicating a potential internal security response. TASS reports that taxi services and carsharing in St. Petersburg are now prohibited from hiring foreign citizens for taxi services, indicating new internal labor and migration controls that could impact personnel movement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the Russian government has decided to close 20 checkpoints on the border with Ukraine starting August 1. ASTRA confirms the closure of 20 checkpoints. New intelligence from ASTRA reports a military commissariat inspector in Bryansk Oblast persuaded a man to marry her and go to the "SVO," where he was killed. This highlights potentially coercive recruitment tactics. NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad reports three young people were detained for damaging the "Blockade Tram" monument in St. Petersburg, demonstrating internal policing capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: ASTRA reports migrants banned from working as taxi drivers in St. Petersburg, confirming RF's internal regulatory power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns provides video of the Director of Sevastopol Aquarium-Museum confirming the removal and reinstallation of Kadyrov's portrait due to an "extremist" act, demonstrating RF's capability to manage public symbols and suppress dissent related to the war. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: ASTRA reports that "Русская община" (Russian Community) disrupted an economic lecture by libertarians about Argentina in Rostov, indicating internal control over ideological events. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic/Geopolitical: TASS reports the USA delivered nuclear weapons to Britain on an aircraft with transponders activated to signal Russia. ASTRA provides a photo message with the caption "USA delivered nuclear weapons to Britain for the first first time since 2008." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports US delivered nuclear weapons to Britain on an aircraft with transponders demonstratively turned on, citing Bloomberg. TASS reports that Germany plans to purchase Tomahawk cruise missiles and Typhon launchers from the USA, indicating Western military build-up. TASS and ASTRA report on Houthis evacuating crew members, including a Russian, from the sunken vessel "Eternity C." New intelligence from STERNENKO and Kotsnews highlights Medvedev's threat of war with the US over Trump's 10-12 day deadline for Putin, indicating aggressive diplomatic posturing. New intelligence from Операция Z and Дневник Десантника confirms the US delivery of nuclear weapons to Britain with transponders active, framed as a signal to Russia, which RF is interpreting as a direct message. New intelligence from Два майора and Рыбарь reports "Bad Maduro" songs from the White House, referring to US attempts to influence Venezuelan politics, indicating RF's capability to monitor and comment on US foreign policy. New intelligence from RBC-Ukraine reports Trump claiming credit for the ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, demonstrating RF's quick adoption of US political narratives for their own diplomatic posturing. NEW INTEL: Операция Z reports Wall Street Journal states Trump did not give a clear answer on measures against Russia if it doesn't end hostilities by mid-August, indicating financial market volatility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: MoD Russia reports on operational information as of 22:00 28.07.25, indicating continued centralized military reporting and strategic communication. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns reports on Pavel Durov's interrogation in Paris, confirming RF capability to monitor international legal processes involving prominent Russian figures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad reports Iran's Foreign Minister stating that Iran will respond in an unhideable manner to repeated US/Israel aggression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: TASS reports RF Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko stated NATO countries are militarizing at an accelerated pace, indicating RF's continued diplomatic messaging regarding NATO's perceived expansion and aggression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Intentions:
  • Strategic Attrition: Continue to degrade Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure through persistent long-range strikes, aiming to exhaust UA air defenses and civilian resilience. Intent to conduct strategic bomber strikes after degrading UA air defenses. RF MoD explicit claim of Kinzhal strike on airfield/ammo depot reinforces this. RF military sources are warning of impending "massive attacks" on RF territory, indicating pre-emptive messaging. Continued KAB strikes on Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника reports "Geranium" strike on Khortytsia Island, confirming continued targeting of UA military points. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF is increasing pressure on Zaporizhzhia Oblast with over 800 strikes in 24 hours, actively targeting civilians. RF is launching KABs towards Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. New intelligence indicates KABs incoming for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. New intelligence from TASS reports a Ukrainian UAV attacked rescuers in Enerhodar during firefighting, aligning with RF intent to highlight alleged UA targeting of civilians. New intelligence from Операция Z (RF source) claims Russian army struck Pryluky airbase, targeting a US "Black Hawk" UH-60 of GUR special forces, suggesting an intent to target high-value Ukrainian military assets. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). RF will continue to launch KABs against Donetsk Oblast, as seen with the recent inbound KABs towards Kramatorsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: UA Air Force reports KABs inbound to Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts, confirming continued intent for aerial bombardment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: STERNENKO reports threat of strike UAVs from the North, likely impacting Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: UA Air Force reports KABs inbound for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: UA Air Force reports a group of Shahed drones in central Sumy Oblast, moving southwest, confirming intent for continued drone attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns reports Donetsk under massive strike, with power outages, confirming intent to target civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Deep Penetration (Donetsk): Sustain offensive pressure on the Pokrovsk axis to achieve deeper penetration into Donetsk Oblast, aiming for the capture of Dimitrov (Myrnohrad), Rodinskoye, and further advances. TASS confirms RF aims to open path to southern Krasnoarmeysk. RF aiming to form "pincers" around Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and Dimitrov (Myrnohrad) to cut logistics. Claims of Boykivka and Belhiyka liberation by "Tsentr Group" (Kotsnews) and subsequent UA withdrawal from Boykivka support this intent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Basurin о главном (RF source) claims UA forces surrendered Maliivka in Dnipropetropetsky Oblast, indicating an intent to secure tactical gains. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim). NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad (Boris Rozhin) explicitly discusses RF success in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), claiming entry into the city and fire control over a key supply road to Rodinskoye, indicating a clear intent for operational encirclement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Операция Z (citing Russkaya Vesna) states "Russian Army breaking through to Siversk," indicating an intent to open a new offensive axis or intensify pressure towards this key objective. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). NEW INTEL: "Сливочный каприз" reports RF ground forces active near Chasiv Yar and Shevchenko, indicating continued intent to advance in the Bakhmut direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Рыбарь posts an updated map showing RF intent to continue offensive operations on the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Control & Propaganda: Actively shape both domestic and international narratives through propaganda, highlighting perceived UA weaknesses, promoting RF military success, and amplifying internal Western divisions. Lavrov explicitly stated Russia is fighting "the entire West" for the first first time in history. Using veterans with criminal records for patriotic education. Peskov's comments on prisoner exchange proposal likely intended to shift blame for lack of progress. TASS (Knaisl) pushing narratives that protests against Zelenskyy are Western-organized, along with Knaisl's statement that Russia has the right to prevent Austria from joining NATO (TASS), indicating a broader effort to reassert influence over former Soviet sphere. Kotsnews pushing propaganda that Ukraine is "trading the remains of its heroes." "Старше Эдды" promotes "Budget places in colleges - for Russian guys!" which is a clear nationalistic propaganda message aimed at influencing youth. MoD Russia releases daily photo messages on "progress of special military operation," reinforcing positive military narrative. "Два майора" uses kitten photos in "Soldier's Daily Life" to humanize soldiers and normalize the conflict. Colonelcassad shared Lavrov's statements on "Russian peace conditions," aiming to define the terms of a future settlement. Colonelcassad also shares humanitarian aid videos to show Russia's "support" for occupied territories. "Zona SVO" video showing soldiers writing patriotic messages on artillery shells demonstrates a clear intent to reinforce patriotic and pro-war sentiment. Mash na Donbasse's report on water shortages in Donetsk, attributed to "deliberate issues", could be used to shift blame to Ukraine or portray Ukraine as neglecting its former citizens. Janus Putkonen's video about "Angels' Alley" and children in Donbas reinforces the narrative of Ukrainian/Western culpability for civilian casualties in Donbas, likely a renewed effort given the recent "Day of Memory for Killed Children in Donbas." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operation Z's video with a Ukrainian ex-ombudsman "shocking with statements about how the Russian people are destroying the Ukrainian nation" is a clear attempt to discredit Ukrainian figures and deny accusations of genocide. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Propaganda regarding "Provocation in Sretensky Monastery" (Rybar) suggests intent to control religious narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Филолог в засаде" discusses "fighting with meat" and high losses, and "advantage in infantry" from a source "товарища Вольта", indicating awareness and discussion of high RF casualties and human wave tactics internally. TASS reports Semafor's claim that stricter anti-Russian sanctions are stuck in US Senate awaiting Trump's approval, used to sow discord and amplify perceived US political instability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) AV Bogomaz's statement on "Kyiv regime committing inhumane crimes" is a clear propaganda effort. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Bloomberg column cited by Operatsiya Z on NABU reform exposes "scale of corruption" in Ukraine is a direct attempt to undermine Ukraine's image. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's video on Sevastopol air raid drills may be aimed at normalizing air raid preparedness for the local population. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF sources are amplifying Trump's new 10-12 day deadline for Ukraine settlement, emphasizing his influence and potential for quick resolution on RF terms, and warning of secondary sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF is leveraging the Aeroflot IT issue to criticize low IT salaries, subtly shifting blame. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF MoD claims about "Rubikon" drones destroying UA foreign-made drones are aimed at showcasing RF counter-drone effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews shared a video of a "closed military chat," possibly intended to show internal views or control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF is pushing a narrative of corruption within UA military, citing the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade commander. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF channels are highlighting Ukrainian official salaries being higher than the average in Ukraine, to fuel internal discontent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF channels are claiming that fallen/missing soldiers are being declared AWOL. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump's latest statements, including "I am very disappointed with Putin" and that he is "no longer interested in talking with Putin," are being disseminated. Conversely, TASS also reports Trump's statement about being interested in increasing trade with RF after the conflict ends, showing a mixed message aimed at different audiences. Trump's statements are now being spun by RF sources like Voenkor Kotenok, who describes Trump as a "virtuoso of cynicism and duplicity" for simultaneously expressing love for Russia and threatening secondary sanctions, indicating an attempt to manage the narrative of Trump's evolving stance. Operation Z (WarGonzo) also highlights Trump's statement "I like Russian people, they are great people," further showcasing RF's intent to exploit perceived pro-Russian sentiments from Trump. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Mash na Donbasse's report on the neurosurgeon killed in Oleshky due to a UA strike is a clear propaganda effort to portray UA as targeting civilians. Rybar posted a video of a captured Ukrainian soldier thanking Russian soldiers for humane treatment, a clear propaganda effort to show good treatment of POWs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad (RF source) attempts to delegitimize a Ukrainian celebrity, Laima Vaikule, for calling for weapons supplies to Ukraine, and suggests confiscation of her Russian assets, aiming to silence opposition and deter support for Ukraine among Russian artists. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" explicitly labels Laima Vaikule as an "enemy" for calling for arms supplies to Ukraine, further confirming RF intent to demonize pro-Ukrainian public figures. Операция Z provides an image regarding the "largest hacker attack on Aeroflot" to highlight the incident, likely to blame external actors while downplaying internal vulnerabilities. WarGonzo is debating whether tanks are obsolete, likely to influence perceptions of modern warfare and the role of heavy armor. New intelligence from Дневник Десантника features a video of a presumably captured UA soldier discussing "crimes against civilians" in Kursk Oblast, clearly a Russian propaganda effort to justify actions and discredit UA. New intelligence from Mash na Donbasse features a volunteer masseur working with military personnel on the front, framing it as a morale-boosting and supportive activity. New intelligence from Alex Parker Returns highlights Trump's claim that Democrats linked his name to the Epstein list, likely a domestic US political narrative amplified by RF to sow distrust. New intelligence from Басурин о главном confirms a new episode of "Basurin Answers!" program, indicating continued propaganda efforts from this specific figure. New intelligence from Два майора continues the "Soldier's Daily Life" rubric with photos of cats, intended to humanize soldiers and normalize the conflict. New intelligence from Операция Z reports Ukraine suspending CFE Treaty obligations, which RF will leverage as a sign of escalatory intent from Ukraine. MoD Russia video shows a soldier speaking about providing first aid to both Russian and Ukrainian wounded, claiming UA commanders abandon their wounded. This is a propaganda effort to discredit Ukrainian command and portray RF as humane. Gleb Nikitin (RF official) reporting on road network development and maintenance is used to show normal state functions and positive development. Rybar releases a propaganda image titled "Spy with a Chatbot," likely intended to promote vigilance against perceived foreign intelligence operations involving technology. Colonelcassad reports on "German car manufacturers losing €10 billion due to Donald Trump's duties," indicating RF's intent to highlight negative economic impacts within the West due to US policies. Дневник Десантника (RF source) shows a video of Donald Trump stating he is "no longer interested in talking" with the Russian President, indicating a shift in US diplomatic rhetoric which RF will likely attempt to spin. Kotsnews (RF source) provides imagery for "Evening Bell", a likely propaganda segment focused on military-related topics. Военкор Котенок (RF source) provides photo messages with the caption "Main news today", indicating a curated news summary, likely for propaganda purposes. TASS reports Medvedev's statement warning Trump that Russia is "not Israel or Iran" and that "ultimatums are a step towards war," demonstrating a firm and aggressive diplomatic posture to counter perceived US pressure. Operatsiya Z (RF source) amplifies Medvedev's warning to Trump, reinforcing RF's assertive stance. Kotsnews (RF source) promotes a song poll for "military sailors", indicating morale-boosting efforts for naval personnel. New intelligence from Рыбарь provides an infographic image "They are bad again," indicating a continued focus on portraying certain entities negatively, likely as part of information warfare. New intelligence from Два майора and Рыбарь reports "Bad Maduro" songs from the White House, referring to US attempts to influence Venezuelan politics, indicating RF's intent to monitor and comment on US foreign policy. New intelligence from TASS reports a civilian was injured due to a UA drone attack on a car in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, aligning with RF intent to portray UA as targeting civilians. New intelligence from ASTRA reports a military commissariat inspector in Bryansk Oblast persuaded a man to marry her and go to the "SVO," where he was killed. This highlights potentially coercive recruitment tactics. New intelligence from RBC-Ukraine reports Trump claiming credit for the ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, which RF will amplify to highlight his influence. New intelligence from Оперативний ЗСУ reports the Ukrainian government appointed Tetiana Berezhna as acting Minister of Culture and Strategic Communications, which RF may attempt to use to highlight political changes. NEW INTEL: Операция Z reports Wall Street Journal states Trump did not give a clear answer on measures against Russia if it doesn't end hostilities by mid-August. RF will use this to highlight perceived Western indecision and promote their own strength. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Rybar posts "Results for July 28," indicating continued efforts to summarize and disseminate information from an RF perspective, likely for propaganda purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: MoD Russia reports on operational information as of 22:00 28.07.25, indicating continued centralized military reporting and strategic communication. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad's video detailing vandalism of a memorial in St. Petersburg and arrests, with the director's statement on Kadyrov's portrait, indicates RF's intent to control historical narratives and public symbols, connecting the current conflict to historical events (WWII) to legitimize their actions and figures like Kadyrov. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: НгП раZVедка posts photo messages about "time for fun" and childhood games, likely to distract from military news or for morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns comments on Pavel Durov's interrogation in Paris, satirizing it to deflect from internal issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad reports Iran's Foreign Minister stating that Iran will respond in an unhideable manner to repeated US/Israel aggression, indicating RF's intent to highlight and potentially amplify anti-US/Israel rhetoric. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: TASS reports RF Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko stated NATO countries are militarizing at an accelerated pace, indicating RF's intent to reinforce its narrative of NATO aggression and justify its own actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: ASTRA reports that "Русская община" (Russian Community) disrupted an economic lecture by libertarians about Argentina in Rostov, indicating RF's intent to suppress dissenting or "unpatriotic" ideologies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Counter-terrorism: Focus on identifying and disrupting alleged Ukrainian special services' sabotage activities within Russia. TASS reports RF request to OPCW to verify UA use of prohibited weapons, indicating a continued effort to accuse UA of war crimes. Дневник Десантника's video on FSB detention of alleged GUR agents in Krasnodar Krai reinforces this intent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad reports three young people were detained for damaging the "Blockade Tram" monument in St. Petersburg, demonstrating RF's intent to enforce internal order and protect symbolic sites. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Non-Western Alignment: Deepen alliances and logistics with non-Western partners (e.g., North Korea). New intelligence from ТАСС confirms Putin spoke by phone with Netanyahu, signaling continued engagement with non-Western partners. New intelligence from РБК-Україна reports an expert discussion on military cooperation and the potential transfer of weapons manufacturing to North Korea, indicating RF's intent to deepen military-technical cooperation with non-Western allies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cyber Offensive: Continue targeting critical infrastructure via cyberattacks, aiming for economic and social disruption. The extended recovery time for Aeroflot indicates a significant and persistent impact RF intends to inflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Два майора discusses the Aeroflot hack as a general threat to critical information, reinforcing the perception of external threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns reports a proposal for a state-controlled VPN in Russia with Gosuslugi authorization, indicating an intent to control information flow and potentially prevent future cyberattacks from within RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Exploit Internal UA Divisions/Corruption: RF media actively seeking to highlight perceived corruption and internal issues within Ukrainian military leadership and government. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Test NATO Resilience: The alleged "Gerbera" UAV flight over Vilnius, if confirmed, would indicate a deliberate intent to probe NATO's response and test the alliance's resolve. New intelligence from TASS reports Estonian MFA summoned Russian Charge d'Affaires to protest alleged border violation by RF border vessel, indicating RF is actively probing NATO borders, including maritime. TASS reports USA delivered nuclear weapons to Britain on an aircraft with transponders activated to signal Russia, which RF is interpreting as a direct message or act of intimidation from the US. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from Alex Parker Returns provides video claiming a "Gerbera" reconnaissance drone flew over Vilnius from Belarus, implying an intent for ISR or probing NATO defenses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Domestic Social Policy: Focus on internal social issues like abortion bans, likely to appeal to conservative segments of the Russian population. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Military-Themed Lifestyle Promotion: "Два майора" is promoting an energy drink with military slogans, suggesting an intent to subtly normalize and promote military themes in civilian life, possibly targeting youth or those interested in military aesthetics. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) NEW INTEL: Дневник Десантника posts a video captioned "Paratrooper brotherhood, family!", displaying soldiers and combat footage, likely a morale-boosting and recruitment message. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Logistical Management: TASS reports the Russian government has restricted gasoline exports for oil product manufacturers until August 31, indicating a domestic management decision, potentially for internal supply or to prevent price hikes. TASS reports the Russian government has decided to close 20 checkpoints on the border with Ukraine starting August 1. ASTRA confirms the closure of 20 checkpoints. New intelligence from Два майора and Операция Z confirm Russia will close 20 checkpoints on the border with Ukraine from August 1. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Control Internal Labor Markets: TASS reports new restrictions on hiring foreign citizens for taxi and carsharing services in St. Petersburg, indicating an intent to control local labor markets and potentially reduce reliance on foreign workers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: ASTRA reports migrants banned from working as taxi drivers in St. Petersburg, confirming this intent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Persistent Massed Aerial Attacks: RF is now consistently launching large waves of mixed missile and drone attacks, challenging UA air defense capabilities across multiple axes simultaneously, with a "complex strike" on five oblasts (Dnipro Desantnika). Demonstrated capability to strike ammunition production facilities deep within Ukraine (Shostka). Increased use of guided aerial bombs on the Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk border, and now on Sumy Oblast. RF MoD explicit claim of Kinzhal strike on a military airfield and ammunition depot highlights their focus on high-value military targets. RF military sources pre-emptively warning of UA "massive attacks" on RF territory, likely to set conditions for future false-flag operations or to justify RF strikes. RBK-Ukraine addresses the question "Why Russia massively strikes Ukraine at night: two main reasons," indicating public and media attention to this RF tactic. Ballistic missile threats from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv indicate a new launch vector. Explosion reported in Pryluky, Chernihiv, by UA monitoring channels, aligning with a renewed ballistic threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) A group of enemy strike UAVs inbound from Belgorod Oblast to Kharkiv Oblast. RF is launching KABs towards Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. New intelligence indicates KABs incoming for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. New intelligence from РБК-Україна reports Fyodorov stating Russia is modernizing Shaheds. New intelligence from Оперативний ЗСУ reports Fyodorov stating Russia will soon switch to jet drones. New intelligence from Военкор Котенок indicates FPV drones on fiber optics are a new trend, potentially limiting EW effectiveness against these systems. RBC-Ukraine reports a reduction in Kalibr attacks from the Black Sea, citing a lack of missile carriers. Север.Реалии (UA/RF-critical source) confirms drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and residential buildings, indicating persistent and destructive aerial tactics. New intelligence from TASS reports a Ukrainian UAV attacked rescuers in Enerhodar during firefighting, implying that RF can quickly detect and report on tactical UAV activity and frame it for propaganda. New intelligence from Операция Z (RF source) claims Russian army struck Pryluky airbase, targeting a US "Black Hawk" UH-60 of GUR special forces, suggesting adaptation to targeting specific foreign-supplied military assets. New intelligence from Colonelcassad shows drone footage featuring "Rubikon" and "Baba-Yaga" drones conducting reconnaissance and strikes, indicating continued adaptation in drone technology and targeting. New intelligence from Colonelcassad shows an animated map detailing Russian strikes across Ukraine, demonstrating their widespread aerial strike capability. NEW INTEL: UA Air Force reports KABs inbound to Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts, confirming continued and expanding use of guided aerial bombs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: STERNENKO reports threat of strike UAVs from the North, likely impacting Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: UA Air Force reports KABs inbound for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: UA Air Force reports a group of Shahed drones in central Sumy Oblast, moving southwest, confirming adaptation of drone tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns reports Donetsk under massive strike, with power outages. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Mash na Donbasse reports explosions in Donetsk (Kuibyshevsky district), power outages, and enemy drones working with PVO, confirming adaptation to large-scale urban attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Deep Cyber Operations & Internal Information Control: Targeting critical civilian infrastructure (Aeroflot, Zhukovsky Airport) indicates an expansion of cyber operations beyond military networks, likely aiming for economic and social disruption. The RF Prosecutor General's Office opening a criminal case confirms the severity. Attribution to Belarusian hackers (presumably pro-Ukrainian) suggests a continued and escalating cyber battle. Kremlin's public acknowledgment suggests the severity of the incident. RF efforts to rebook Aeroflot passengers indicate the operational impact. Expert assessments of 6 months to 1 year recovery for Aeroflot IT systems indicate the depth of disruption. Mobile internet restriction in Tyumen Oblast and the fining of a serviceman for "defeatist conversations" indicate a tightening of internal information and movement controls, likely in response to increasing internal security concerns. TASS reports "Max" messenger will implement anti-fraud technology, likely a vector for further information control. Kemerovo region government moving to "Max" messenger confirms implementation of this control measure. TASS reports a call for major companies to not relax on cyber defense, indicating a broader recognition of this threat. Fighterbomber's attribution of the Aeroflot hack to low IT salaries is a new internal spin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Aeroflot flight cancellations continue, confirming ongoing disruption. Оперативний ЗСУ's report on the Aeroflot CEO's unchanged password highlights a significant, exploitable vulnerability. Fighterbomber suggests RF is attempting to downplay the significance of the Aeroflot hack to the public, possibly to reduce panic or criticism of the government's handling of critical infrastructure. New intelligence from Colonelcassad reports on the Aeroflot cyberattack. ASTRA reports mobile internet in Udmurtia has been disconnected for three three days with authorities stating it will be "indefinite," indicating expanded internal communication restrictions. Север.Реалии (UA/RF-critical source) shares a video confirming Aeroflot cancellations and delays due to a cyberattack claimed by pro-Ukrainian groups Silent Crow and Belarusian Cyberpartisans, confirming the severity of the incident. TASS reports that Aeroflot cancelled 7 pairs of flights for July 29, indicating continued disruptions. New intelligence from TASS reports Zhukovsky Airport's website access has been restored after restrictions. NEW INTEL: Два майора discusses the Aeroflot hack, framing it as a general threat to critical information, indicating a tactical adaptation to manage the narrative of internal cyber vulnerabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports Russian stocks plummeted after Trump's statement about reducing the deadline for Putin, indicating financial market volatility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports another system failure in Russia, with residents complaining about inability to process documents, indicating further domestic service disruptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns reports a proposal for a state-controlled VPN in Russia with Gosuslugi authorization, indicating tightened internet control as a tactical adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: ASTRA reports that "Русская община" (Russian Community) disrupted an economic lecture by libertarians about Argentina in Rostov, indicating a tactical adaptation to suppress ideological dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Continued Ground Force Adaptation: Continued use of small, rapid assault groups, and ongoing development of improvised vehicle protection and robotic ground systems. Confirmed deployment and effective use of TOS-2 "Tosochka" systems for precision night strikes against fortified positions. Increased offensive activity across multiple Eastern axes, maintaining pressure on UA forces, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis (Myrnohrad/Dimitrov). UA withdrawal from Boykivka confirms tactical adjustments in response to RF pressure. Continued effective tactical drone operations (e.g., "Zaba" drone operators) with claimed improvements in EW resistance and targeting autonomy. WarGonzo highlights BM-21 Grad artillery of the 41st Motorized Rifle Regiment, 44th Army Corps, for "burning out Ukro-Nazis," reinforcing RF claims of effective, sustained artillery support. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" video about "Fighting with fiber-optic drones" hints at new counter-drone capabilities or threats. Colonelcassad's report of "assault groups advancing in forests near Melovoye" suggests a tactical adaptation to forested terrain. Destruction of a pre-mined bridge near Kamyshevakha by drone operators indicates a new target for RF tactical drones. Butusov Plus reports a Russian soldier on Pokrovsk axis suicided after a UA drone attack, suggesting psychological impact of UA tactical drone use. Kadyrov's forces operating in Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast) with drone support indicates continued localized offensive capabilities and specific unit deployments in key areas. Military analyst confirms high combat intensity on Pokrovsk axis, but claims RF momentum is lost in this direction, and their ambition to capture the bridgehead between Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka has been thwarted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews video of a Russian soldier engaging a drone and reporting "Ya 300!" indicates that tactical C2 might be breaking down in immediate drone threats, leading to individual, desperate actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Podubny's video on "Vostok" group UAV operators striking UA transport near Oleksandrohrad (border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) indicates a tactical focus on interdicting UA logistics, especially on approaches to key areas. Voin DV's report on 14th Guards Spetsnaz destroying a UA armored vehicle indicates specialized unit tactical effectiveness. Butusov Plus (UA source) reports on a tank duel where a UA 54th Mechanized Brigade tank successfully outmaneuvered and engaged an RF "shed-type" tank, highlighting UA tactical prowess in armored engagements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Over 800 RF strikes in 24 hours in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, confirming intense ground pressure. Butusov Plus video shows Ukrainian assault and reconnaissance units clearing a settlement, demonstrating continued UA tactical effectiveness. WarGonzo indicates a tactical debate on the relevance of tanks in modern warfare, suggesting RF is analyzing and adapting their armored tactics in response to drone threats. New intelligence from Alex Parker Returns shows a first-person perspective video of a soldier navigating a wooded area with a targeting reticle, suggesting active combat or reconnaissance, possibly from an RF perspective given the source. New intelligence from Бутусов ПЛЮС shows extensive damage to a light utility vehicle (possibly UAZ) after a military engagement, indicating RF losses. MoD Russia video shows a soldier speaking about providing first aid to both Russian and Ukrainian wounded, claiming UA commanders abandon their wounded. This is likely a propaganda effort, but indicates RF forces are encountering Ukrainian wounded on the battlefield. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki shares a video titled "Evacuation of the Wounded," showing two individuals in military-style camouflage on a motorcycle, confirming tactical mobility for personnel movement and casualty evacuation in combat zones. Tsaplienko (UA source) reports a group of 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" fighters ambushed occupiers near Pokrovsk, using drone-dropped munitions against RF personnel. This indicates UA tactical adaptation using drones for direct engagement. Бутусов ПЛЮС (UA source) provides a photo message captioned "Don't push the horses," showing a Russian soldier with a horse about to be hit by a drone, indicating RF forces are using animals for logistics or transport in Donetsk Oblast, and are vulnerable to drone attacks. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Russia attempting to retake Kindrativka from Kursk Oblast, indicating renewed RF ground pressure in Sumy Oblast and tactical adaptation to regain lost territory. Colonelcassad (RF source) provides video footage showing an RF strike on an enemy assault group, indicating active RF counter-assault operations. Basurin о главном (RF source) claims UA forces surrendered Maliivka in Dnipropetropetsky Oblast, indicating a territorial loss. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim). Colonelcassad (RF source) reports on the combat work of scouts from the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade "Vostok" destroying a Humvee on the South Donetsk direction, demonstrating RF ground offensive capabilities. Slyvochny kapriz (RF source) reports on Kurakhovo - Alekseevka on 28.07.25, with images showing a significant gathering of personnel and equipment, suggesting a potential force concentration or tactical grouping. Старише Эдди (RF source) provides a video from inside a vehicle where a soldier reports "Ya 300!" (I am wounded) while engaging a drone, indicating direct drone threats to ground forces. Mykolaivskiy Vanok (UA source) provides drone footage of a military engagement in a wooded area, showing two groups of soldiers targeted by an explosion, claiming significant RF losses. New intelligence from Zona SVO indicates two Russian servicemen speaking about defending the motherland and signing contracts, possibly indicating recruitment efforts or current personnel status. New intelligence from Воин DV claims the UA 25th Brigade is losing shelters in Sukhiy Yar, suggesting RF ground tactical success. New intelligence from Бутусов ПЛЮС shows Ukrainian soldiers using drones to supply frontline positions with essential items, highlighting UA tactical adaptation for logistics. New intelligence from Бутусов ПЛЮС shows drone footage of vehicles being struck by munitions, confirming continued effective UA drone operations against RF logistics and transport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shows an aerial view of a naval vessel or pontoon bridge being struck, suggesting RF is adapting to target or use such assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad (Boris Rozhin) reports alleged RF DRGs have entered Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and have fire control over a road to Rodinskoye, indicating adaptation of deep penetration tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video footage captioned "Assault and reconnaissance units clearing the settlement of occupiers," demonstrating continued UA ground offensive tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Операция Z (citing Russkaya Vesna) states "Russian Army breaking through to Siversk," indicating a tactical adaptation for a new offensive direction. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). NEW INTEL: Два майора posts a video showcasing "Frontline Armor" with Russian soldiers and a BM-21 Grad MLRS, indicating continued ground force deployment and morale-boosting efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Два майора posts video of "Preparation. Sumy direction," showing soldiers undergoing rigorous training, indicating adaptation to force generation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: "Сливочный каприз" reports RF ground forces active near Chasiv Yar and Shevchenko, indicating continued tactical adaptation to capture key areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Рыбарь posts an updated map showing RF ground force movements and adaptations in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Shift in Attribution Narrative for Civilian Incidents: In Astrakhan, initial reports of gas explosion are now being contradicted by authorities stating no gas leak, and a criminal case opened on building collapse, potentially setting conditions for alternative attribution, though not yet stated. Mash na Donbasse's report on water shortages in Donetsk, with residents suspecting "deliberate issues," could be a narrative being prepared by RF to blame UA. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Mash na Donbasse's report on the neurosurgeon killed in Oleshky due to a UA strike is an explicit attempt to attribute civilian casualties to UA shelling, likely to justify RF actions or discredit UA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) explicitly attributes drone and artillery strikes in Nikopol district to RF, providing imagery of damage, indicating continued RF targeting of civilian infrastructure. The RF Governor of Astrakhan declaring a state of emergency at the site of the partial building collapse indicates a formal, high-level response to the domestic incident. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports and provides video evidence of a Russian attack on a civilian "Zhiguli" car in Velyki Prokhody, north of Kharkiv, causing damage with bullet holes and shattered windshield, indicating direct targeting of civilians. New intelligence from TASS reports a Ukrainian UAV attacked rescuers in Enerhodar during firefighting, a clear tactical adaptation by RF to quickly attribute civilian targeting to UA. New intelligence from TASS reports a civilian was injured due to a UA drone attack on a car in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, aligning with RF tactical adaptation to quickly attribute civilian targeting to UA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad reports a Ukrainian sea mine washed ashore on Odesa beach after a storm. This will likely be leveraged by RF to attribute civilian threats to UA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns reports Donetsk under massive strike, with power outages, which RF will attribute to UA actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Mash na Donbasse reports explosions in Donetsk, power outages, and enemy drones working with PVO, which RF will attribute to UA actions against civilians. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Focus on Humanitarian/Reconstruction Aid in Occupied Territories (RF): Colonelcassad's videos showing aid delivery, including religious supplies and building materials to Toshkovka and other areas in Luhansk, indicate a concerted effort to demonstrate control and "normalcy" in occupied regions, likely for propaganda purposes. New intelligence from Mash na Donbasse features a volunteer masseur working with military personnel on the front, indicating efforts to boost morale and provide support in conflict zones. Operatsiya Z (RF source) provides photo messages related to the restoration of the Kazan Mother of God Monastery, reinforcing religious and cultural restoration in occupied territories, likely for propaganda purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Increased Diplomatic Maneuvers: RF is leveraging Trump's public statements about a shortened deadline for Ukraine settlement, likely to increase pressure on Ukraine and European allies, and influence perceptions of US foreign policy. RF officials attending forum in Switzerland indicates continued, albeit possibly limited, high-level diplomatic efforts despite sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Trump's reported statements about "not interested in talking with Putin" represent a significant shift in US rhetoric that RF will need to adapt to or attempt to spin, though other Trump statements about liking Russian people or wanting trade might still be leveraged. Voenkor Kotenok (RF source) has begun spinning Trump's contradictory statements as "cynicism and duplicity," indicating an adaptation to Trump's unpredictable rhetoric. Erdogan's (Turkey) statements about a "peace table" in Turkey, reported by Anadolu and RBC-Ukraine, signal continued third-party diplomatic initiatives. New intelligence from ТАСС confirms Putin spoke by phone with Netanyahu, indicating centralized strategic C2 for diplomatic outreach. Дневник Десантника (RF source) shows a video of Donald Trump stating he is "no longer interested in talking" with the Russian President, confirming this diplomatic shift. TASS reports Medvedev's statement warning Trump that Russia is "not Israel or Iran" and that "ultimatums are a step towards war," demonstrating a firm and aggressive diplomatic posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that a ceasefire has come into force on the Cambodia-Thailand border, potentially allowing RF to highlight their perceived role or the effectiveness of non-Western mediation. New intelligence from RBC-Ukraine reports Trump claiming credit for the ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, indicating RF's quick adoption of US political narratives for their own diplomatic posturing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Операция Z reports Wall Street Journal states Trump did not give a clear answer on measures against Russia if it doesn't end hostilities by mid-August. This will force RF to adapt their messaging regarding Trump's "deadline." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports the head of Russia's Federation Council (Matviyenko) arrived in Switzerland, with Ukraine's MFA reminding her that her place is in The Hague. This indicates continued Ukrainian diplomatic pressure and attempts to hold RF officials accountable. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad reports Iran's Foreign Minister stating that Iran will respond in an unhideable manner to repeated US/Israel aggression, indicating RF's adaptation to using regional geopolitical tensions for diplomatic leverage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: TASS reports RF Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko stated NATO countries are militarizing at an accelerated pace, indicating RF's adaptation to framing NATO as a threat in diplomatic messaging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Military Personnel Management: RF is reportedly declaring killed and missing soldiers as AWOL, indicating a change in administrative practices possibly to reduce official casualty figures or avoid benefits payout. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New restrictions on hiring foreign citizens for taxi/carsharing in St. Petersburg indicate new internal labor controls potentially impacting civilian support networks for the military. TASS and ASTRA report the Russian government has decided to close 20 checkpoints on the border with Ukraine starting August 1. This significantly impacts cross-border movement and could be a measure to control personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from Zona SVO indicates two Russian servicemen speaking about defending the motherland and signing contracts, highlighting RF's continued reliance on contractual service and their efforts to motivate personnel. New intelligence from ASTRA reports a military commissariat inspector in Bryansk Oblast persuaded a man to marry her and go to the "SVO," where he was killed. This highlights potentially coercive recruitment tactics. NEW INTEL: ASTRA reports migrants banned from working as taxi drivers in St. Petersburg, indicating a tactical adaptation to internal labor market control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Дневник Десантника posts a video captioned "Paratrooper brotherhood, family!", displaying soldiers and combat footage, likely a morale-boosting and recruitment message. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Два майора posts video of "Preparation. Sumy direction," showing soldiers undergoing rigorous training, indicating adaptation to force generation and personnel sustainment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Direct Provocation Towards NATO (Alleged): The reported flight of a Russian "Gerbera" UAV over Vilnius, if confirmed, represents a significant escalation in direct Russian probing of NATO airspace and a deliberate testing of alliance resolve, moving beyond the Ukrainian conflict zone. New intelligence from TASS reports Estonian MFA summoned Russian Charge d'Affaires to protest alleged border violation by RF border vessel, indicating RF is actively probing NATO borders, including maritime, demonstrating a tactical adaptation to test NATO's response capacity. TASS reports USA delivered nuclear weapons to Britain on an aircraft with transponders activated to signal Russia, which could be interpreted by RF as a direct message or act of intimidation from the US. ASTRA provides a photo message with the caption "USA delivered nuclear weapons to Britain for the first first time since 2008." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports US delivered nuclear weapons to Britain on an aircraft with transponders demonstratively turned on, citing Bloomberg, reinforcing the deliberate signalling aspect. Операция Z (RF source) confirms Estonia's claim of a Russian border vessel violating maritime borders, indicating continued RF probing of NATO sea borders. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from Alex Parker Returns provides video claiming a "Gerbera" reconnaissance drone flew over Vilnius from Belarus, implying a continued pattern of probing NATO airspace. New intelligence from Операция Z and Дневник Десантника confirms the US delivery of nuclear weapons to Britain with transponders active, framed as a signal to Russia, reinforcing RF's interpretation of this as a direct message or provocation. New intelligence from РБК-Україна reports an RF border vessel violated Estonia's maritime border. New intelligence from STERNENKO confirms US delivery of nuclear weapons to UK. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Domestic Social Policy Focus: New intelligence on Slutsky discussing abortion bans indicates a focus on conservative social policy internally. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Logistical Management (Internal): TASS reports the Russian government has restricted gasoline exports for oil product manufacturers until August 31, which is a new administrative measure to manage domestic supply or pricing. TASS reports RZD (Russian Railways) completed construction of a new single-track railway overpass in Kursk Oblast in record time after a sabotage incident on June 1, 2025. This demonstrates a rapid repair capability for key logistical infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Countering Western Aid/Diplomacy: Rybar (RF source) uses an image with the caption "Europe plows, America drives" to depict a negative view of US-European economic relations, suggesting RF is attempting to exploit perceived imbalances. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Propaganda, interpretation).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Ammunition & Fuel: Sufficient to maintain current high operational tempo. Damage to railway infrastructure in Volgograd was reportedly restored, indicating rapid repair capabilities. The strike on the Shostka ammunition plant suggests RF is actively targeting UA production capabilities. Focus on increasing "Don-Donbass" canal capacity indicates resource management in occupied territories. WarGonzo highlights active artillery use, suggesting continued ammunition supply. MoD Russia video showing 2S19 Msta-S howitzer firing indicates continued artillery supply. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Crimean bridge traffic restored suggests resilience of a key logistics route. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Over 800 RF strikes in 24 hours in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in 24 hours, confirming high ammunition expenditure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the Russian government has restricted gasoline exports for oil product manufacturers until August 31, which may indicate a pre-emptive measure to stabilize domestic fuel prices or ensure internal supply. RBC-Ukraine reports a reduction in Kalibr attacks from the Black Sea due to a lack of missile carriers, indicating a potential constraint on this specific weapon system's ammunition supply. STERNENKO (UA source) confirms RF has banned gasoline exports for oil product manufacturers until August 31. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) confirms the gasoline export ban. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: UA Air Force reports KABs inbound to Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts, confirming continued high consumption of guided aerial bombs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Два майора posts a video on "Frontline Armor" fundraising, indicating continued reliance on external support for material sustainment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: UA Air Force reports KABs inbound for Zaporizhzhia Oblast, confirming continued consumption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: UA Air Force reports a group of Shahed drones in central Sumy Oblast, moving southwest, confirming continued consumption of UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns reports Donetsk under massive strike, with power outages, likely due to RF munitions expenditure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Mash na Donbasse reports explosions in Donetsk, power outages, and enemy drones working with PVO, implying high munition expenditure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Personnel: Continued reliance on recruitment from penal colonies and high-paying contracts to sustain combat power. Persistent internal appeals for specific equipment (drones, Starlink) indicate localized logistical needs despite overall sufficiency. Reports of a Paraguayan mercenary being sentenced in absentia by Russia suggest continued focus on foreign fighters, albeit likely for propaganda purposes. Kadyrov's foundation providing financial aid to families of fallen servicemen indicates an ongoing, centralized effort to support military families. Reports of military personnel committing crimes in RF (Tambov Oblast) suggest potential issues with discipline or integration of personnel. The video of pilot Elizaveta Dmitrievsky transitioning to civil service suggests a continued churn in military personnel, with some moving to other state-supported roles (e.g. Unmanned Aviation Systems national project). "Aeroflot" is rebooking tickets for "SVO heroes," prioritizing military personnel during cyber disruption. "Два майора" posts images titled "Soldier's Daily Life" that, while showing domestic animals, are likely part of a broader effort to manage soldier morale and public perception of military life. "Два майора" also published a photo of what appears to be a formal document under the caption "The Right Decision," which may relate to military personnel decisions or regulations, but specific content is unclear. "Два майора" also shows military personnel receiving what appears to be batteries for drones in the Kherson direction, suggesting continued logistical support for tactical units. "Дневник Десантника" report of a serviceman fined 2.5 million rubles for "defeatist conversations" indicates RF is actively managing internal military dissent. "ZONA SVO" video depicting soldiers writing patriotic messages on artillery shells is a morale-boosting exercise. Дневник Десантника's video of 7th Airborne Division soldiers requesting drones/Starlink indicates specific material and logistical gaps at the tactical level, particularly concerning advanced reconnaissance and communication. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New reports indicate RF is classifying killed and missing soldiers as AWOL. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports a collection effort for assault and reconnaissance units on the South Donetsk direction, indicating ongoing logistical support and preparation for ground forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The fire at the 210th Military Training Center in Kstovo, which trains sappers, pontoon bridge specialists, camouflage, and EOD specialists, indicates a potential disruption to RF specialized military training, which could affect personnel quality and availability in the medium-to-long term. New intelligence from Дневник Десантника issues a crowdfunding appeal to support soldiers, indicating continued reliance on public support for tactical equipment. New intelligence from Mash na Donbasse features a volunteer masseur working with military personnel on the front, providing direct support for personnel welfare and morale. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki shares a video titled "Evacuation of the Wounded," showing two individuals in military-style camouflage on a motorcycle, suggesting tactical mobility for casualty evacuation. Kotsnews (RF source) provides imagery of a large gathering of military personnel, potentially indicating a concentration of forces or a logistical assembly point. New intelligence from Zona SVO indicates two Russian servicemen speaking about defending the motherland and signing contracts, possibly indicating recruitment efforts or current personnel status. New intelligence from ASTRA reports a military commissariat inspector in Bryansk Oblast persuaded a man to marry her and go to the "SVO," where he was killed. This highlights potential coercive recruitment tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo messages captioned "Brazilians in GUR service," indicating RF is highlighting the presence of foreign fighters on the UA side, potentially for propaganda or to track personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Дневник Десантника posts a video captioned "Paratrooper brotherhood, family!", displaying soldiers and combat footage, likely a morale-boosting and recruitment message. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Два майора posts video of "Preparation. Sumy direction," showing soldiers undergoing rigorous training, indicating continued force generation efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Materiel: Overall production capacity appears sufficient to replace losses, with continued investment in advanced systems (robotic complexes, uncrewed kamikaze boats) and expansion of drone production (Alabuga, as noted by WarGonzo). RF (Basurin) explicitly claims their drones are becoming "smarter" and more EW resistant. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" video on "Fighting with fiber-optic drones" may indicate either RF efforts to develop countermeasures or new drone technologies. Rybar's photo message "Tanks bought" is likely propaganda about new or acquired equipment, without specific details. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from РБК-Україна reports Fyodorov stating Russia is modernizing Shaheds. New intelligence from Оперативний ЗСУ reports Fyodorov stating Russia will soon switch to jet drones. New intelligence from Военкор Котенок claims FPV drones on fiber optics are becoming a trend, highlighting potential advancements in RF drone capabilities. New intelligence from Бутусов ПЛЮС shows a destroyed RF utility vehicle, indicating materiel losses. Dva mayora (RF source) discussing "Poland forgot about Abrams repair" might be a propaganda effort aimed at sowing doubt about Western military equipment maintenance capabilities, and potentially reducing willingness to provide further support. Voin DV (RF source) reports that Germany plans to purchase Tomahawk cruise missiles and Typhon launchers from the USA, indicating Western military build-up and potential for further arms transfers to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports Ukraine received first batch of Patria APCs from Latvia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Два майора posts a video on "Frontline Armor" fundraising, indicating continued reliance on external support for material sustainment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• Tactical Level: Demonstrated effective tactical C2 for coordinated aerial strikes and focused ground assaults. Continued challenges in large-scale combined arms operations, but adaptation to small-unit tactics and effective use of specialized units (TOS-2). (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) RF claims effective combined arms work by Aerospace Forces (VKS), strike UAVs, and artillery on Pokrovsk axis. RF MoD claims of Kinzhal strike on military airfield/ammo depot suggest effective targeting C2 for high-value assets. WarGonzo's video on Grad artillery mentions specific units (41st MSP, 44th Army Corps, Sever troop grouping) and call signs, indicating structured command at the tactical level. Операция Z video shows tactical drone use which implies effective C2 for target acquisition and strike. Butusov Plus video of Russian soldier suicide after drone attack suggests UA drones are having a direct psychological impact on RF frontline C2. Voin DV video shows drone observation of RF artillery. MoD Russia video demonstrates artillery working with aerial reconnaissance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF MoD claims "Rubikon" drones destroyed UA drones, showing effective counter-drone C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews video of a Russian soldier engaging a drone and shouting "Ya 300!" indicates that tactical C2 might be breaking down in immediate drone threats, leading to individual, desperate actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Podubny's video on "Vostok" group UAV operators striking UA transport reinforces effective tactical C2 for drone strikes on logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Voin DV's report on 14th Guards Spetsnaz destroying a UA armored vehicle indicates effective tactical C2 for specialized operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Drone footage from Colonelcassad claiming destruction of Ukrainian combatants and military equipment across three oblasts indicates effective tactical C2 for long-range drone strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from Alex Parker Returns shows a first-person perspective video of a soldier navigating a wooded area with a targeting reticle, suggesting active combat or reconnaissance, possibly from an RF tactical unit. New intelligence from Бутусов ПЛЮС shows extensive damage to a light utility vehicle (possibly UAZ) after a military engagement, indicating C2 failures leading to losses, or effective UA targeting. MoD Russia video shows a soldier speaking about providing first aid to both Russian and Ukrainian wounded, claiming UA commanders abandon their wounded. This is likely a propaganda effort, but indicates RF forces are encountering Ukrainian wounded on the battlefield. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki shares a video titled "Evacuation of the Wounded," showing two individuals in military-style camouflage on a motorcycle, confirming tactical mobility and potentially C2 for casualty evacuation. Tsaplienko (UA source) reports a group of 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" fighters ambushed occupiers near Pokrovsk, using drone-dropped munitions against RF personnel, demonstrating effective UA tactical C2 and drone integration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Бутусов ПЛЮС (UA source) shows a Russian soldier with a horse about to be hit by a drone, indicating ongoing tactical engagements and challenges to RF C2 at the squad/individual level. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Russia attempting to retake Kindrativka from Kursk Oblast, indicating RF tactical C2 for counter-offensives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad (RF source) provides video footage showing an RF strike on an enemy assault group, indicating effective RF tactical C2 for counter-assault operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном (RF source) claims UA forces surrendered Maliivka, potentially indicating RF tactical C2 effectiveness in achieving local gains. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim). Colonelcassad (RF source) reports on the combat work of scouts from the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade "Vostok" destroying a Humvee on the South Donetsk direction, indicating effective RF tactical C2 for reconnaissance and direct action. Slyvochny kapriz (RF source) reports on Kurakhovo - Alekseevka on 28.07.25, with images showing a significant gathering of personnel and equipment, indicating a potential force concentration and C2 coordination. Старише Эдди (RF source) provides a video from inside a vehicle where a soldier reports "Ya 300!" (I am wounded) while engaging a drone, indicating direct drone threats to ground forces and potential C2 degradation. Mykolaivskiy Vanok (UA source) provides drone footage of a military engagement in a wooded area, showing two groups of soldiers targeted by an explosion, claiming significant RF losses, indicating effective UA tactical C2. New intelligence from Zona SVO indicates two Russian servicemen speaking about defending the motherland and signing contracts, possibly indicating recruitment efforts or current personnel status. New intelligence from Воин DV claims the UA 25th Brigade is losing shelters in Sukhiy Yar, indicating effective RF tactical C2. New intelligence from Бутусов ПЛЮС shows Ukrainian soldiers using drones to supply frontline positions with essential items, highlighting UA tactical C2 for logistics. New intelligence from Бутусов ПЛЮС shows drone footage of vehicles being struck by munitions, confirming continued effective UA drone operations against RF logistics and transport. New intelligence from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shows an aerial view of a naval vessel or pontoon bridge being struck, suggesting effective RF targeting or training C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad (Boris Rozhin) discusses RF advances in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), indicating effective tactical C2 for deep ground operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video footage captioned "Assault and reconnaissance units clearing the settlement of occupiers," demonstrating effective UA tactical C2 for clearing operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Операция Z (citing Russkaya Vesna) states "Russian Army breaking through to Siversk," indicating effective tactical C2 for a new offensive direction. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). NEW INTEL: MoD Russia reports on operational information as of 22:00 28.07.25, indicating continued centralized military reporting and strategic communication. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Два майора posts a video showcasing "Frontline Armor" with Russian soldiers and a BM-21 Grad MLRS, indicating effective tactical C2 for propaganda and force projection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Дневник Десантника posts a video captioned "Paratrooper brotherhood, family!", displaying soldiers and combat footage, likely demonstrating effective tactical C2 for morale-boosting and recruitment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Два майора posts video of "Preparation. Sumy direction," showing soldiers undergoing rigorous training, indicating effective C2 for force generation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: "Сливочный каприз" reports RF ground forces active near Chasiv Yar and Shevchenko, indicating effective tactical C2 for localized offensives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Рыбарь posts an updated map showing effective RF tactical C2 in Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Mash na Donbasse reports explosions in Donetsk, power outages, and enemy drones working with PVO, implying local C2 for air defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Operational/Strategic Level: Centralized strategic C2, evidenced by coordinated nationwide missile/drone campaigns, significant internal security operations, and diplomatic engagements (e.g., Lukashenka-Putin phone call, Lavrov's statements, Matviyenko's reported travel to Switzerland). Peskov's statements on prisoner exchange demonstrate strategic communication control. The RF MoD confirming the "group strike" and liberation of settlements indicates a coordinated strategic narrative. The unified response to the Aeroflot cyber incident (Mintrans, Rosaviatsiya, Aeroflot working together) demonstrates a level of coordinated strategic crisis management, though it does not negate the disruption. The mobile internet restriction in Tyumen Oblast is a strategic C2 decision for internal security. TASS reports on RF MoD daily summary indicates centralized information control on operational progress. The prosecution of MVD officials (TASS) indicates an ongoing, high-level effort to address corruption. Colonelcassad's video of air raid alert tests in Sevastopol demonstrates centralized C2 for civil defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The transfer of Kemerovo government chats to "Max" messenger indicates centralized control over internal communications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad is now claiming widespread corruption within the UA 10th Mountain Assault Brigade, attempting to undermine UA military leadership. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Trump's recent statements about being "disappointed with Putin" and "no longer interested in talking" could signal a shift in strategic diplomatic C2 for RF, potentially forcing a re-evaluation of their engagement strategy with the US. Voenkor Kotenok's immediate spin on Trump's contradictory statements suggests a rapid, centralized C2 for information warfare to manage external narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from ТАСС confirms Putin spoke by phone with Netanyahu, indicating centralized strategic C2 for diplomatic outreach. New intelligence from Операция Z reports Ukraine suspending CFE Treaty obligations, highlighting a strategic-level response to perceived threats, which RF will interpret and respond to at a strategic level. TASS reports the USA delivered nuclear weapons to Britain on an aircraft with transponders activated to signal Russia, which indicates a strategic-level messaging or show of force by the US, requiring RF strategic C2 response. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports US delivered nuclear weapons to Britain with transponders demonstratively turned on, citing Bloomberg, reinforcing the strategic signalling. Дневник Десантника (RF source) shows a video of Donald Trump stating he is "no longer interested in talking" with the Russian President, which is a significant international diplomatic development. Операция Z (RF source) confirms Estonia's claim of a Russian border vessel violating maritime borders, indicating a strategic-level probing action by RF. TASS reports Medvedev's statement warning Trump that Russia is "not Israel or Iran" and that "ultimatums are a step towards war," demonstrating assertive strategic C2. Operatsiya Z (RF source) amplifies Medvedev's warning to Trump, reinforcing RF's assertive diplomatic stance. TASS and ASTRA report the Russian government has decided to close 20 checkpoints on the border with Ukraine starting August 1, indicating a strategic decision to further isolate Ukraine and control cross-border movement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from STERNENKO and Kotsnews highlights Medvedev's threat of war with the US over Trump's 10-12 day deadline for Putin, a clear strategic C2 message aimed at deterrence. New intelligence from Alex Parker Returns provides video claiming a "Gerbera" reconnaissance drone flew over Vilnius from Belarus, which, if ordered at a strategic level, would be a clear strategic C2 decision to probe NATO. New intelligence from Дневник Десантника indicates a NATO drone is still conducting reconnaissance over the Black Sea, suggesting RF is monitoring strategic NATO ISR activities. New intelligence from Операция Z (RF source) claims Russian army struck Pryluky airbase, targeting a US "Black Hawk" UH-60 of GUR special forces, suggesting strategic C2 for high-value target selection. New intelligence from РБК-Україна reports an RF border vessel violated Estonia's maritime border, indicating RF strategic C2 for border probing. New intelligence from STERNENKO confirms US delivery of nuclear weapons to UK, confirming RF's awareness of strategic movements. New intelligence from Два майора and Рыбарь reports "Bad Maduro" songs from the White House, reflecting RF strategic C2 to comment on and engage in information warfare about US foreign policy. New intelligence from TASS reports a civilian was injured due to a UA drone attack on a car in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, highlighting RF strategic C2 for rapid domestic reporting and attribution. New intelligence from ASTRA reports a military commissariat inspector in Bryansk Oblast persuaded a man to marry her and go to the "SVO," where he was killed, which could indicate strategic C2 failures in personnel management. New intelligence from RBC-Ukraine reports Trump claiming credit for the ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, demonstrating RF's rapid strategic C2 for adapting international political narratives. New intelligence from Оперативний ЗСУ reports the Ukrainian government appointed Tetiana Berezhna as acting Minister of Culture and Strategic Communications, indicating a strategic C2 decision for government appointments. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Операция Z reports Wall Street Journal states Trump did not give a clear answer on measures against Russia if it doesn't end hostilities by mid-August. This ambiguity will influence international diplomatic calculations and RF strategic C2 will monitor closely. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: MoD Russia reports on operational information as of 22:00 28.07.25, indicating continued centralized military reporting and strategic communication. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns video shows the Director of Sevastopol Aquarium-Museum managing the narrative around Kadyrov's portrait, which reflects centralized C2 for internal messaging and symbolic control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports Russian stocks plummeted after Trump's statement about reducing the deadline for Putin, indicating strategic C2 implications related to economic stability and the impact of diplomatic statements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports the head of Russia's Federation Council (Matviyenko) arrived in Switzerland, with Ukraine's MFA reminding her that her place is in The Hague. This indicates continued Ukrainian diplomatic pressure and attempts to hold RF officials accountable. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad reports Iran's Foreign Minister stating that Iran will respond in an unhideable manner to repeated US/Israel aggression, indicating strategic C2 to amplify anti-Western sentiment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: TASS reports RF Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko stated NATO countries are militarizing at an accelerated pace, indicating strategic C2 for diplomatic messaging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: ASTRA reports that "Русская община" (Russian Community) disrupted an economic lecture by libertarians about Argentina in Rostov, reflecting strategic C2 for internal ideological control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns reports a proposal for a state-controlled VPN in Russia with Gosuslugi authorization, indicating strategic C2 for information control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Hybrid Operations: Highly coordinated multi-domain C2, integrating traditional military operations with cyberattacks and sophisticated information warfare. The Aeroflot hack and the subsequent criminal case by the Prosecutor General's Office confirm significant impact and C2 challenges for RF in the cyber domain, but also highlight RF efforts to address it. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from TASS reports Estonian MFA summoned Russian Charge d'Affaires to protest alleged border violation by RF border vessel, indicating RF's use of hybrid tactics to probe NATO borders. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Север.Реалии (UA/RF-critical source) confirms the Aeroflot cyberattack was conducted by pro-Ukrainian groups, highlighting the continued effectiveness of UA cyber operations as part of hybrid warfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from Alex Parker Returns provides video claiming a "Gerbera" reconnaissance drone flew over Vilnius from Belarus, which aligns with hybrid operations aimed at information gathering and psychological effect. New intelligence from TASS reports a Ukrainian UAV attacked rescuers in Enerhodar during firefighting, indicating RF's capability to frame civilian-impacting events as hybrid attacks by Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad reports three young men detained for damaging the "Blockade Tram" monument in St. Petersburg, reflecting RF's hybrid response to internal acts of perceived dissent or vandalism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: ASTRA reports migrants banned from working as taxi drivers in St. Petersburg, which has hybrid implications for internal social and economic control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns video shows the Director of Sevastopol Aquarium-Museum managing the narrative around Kadyrov's portrait, which is a hybrid operation aimed at ideological control and symbol manipulation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: ASTRA reports that "Русская община" (Russian Community) disrupted an economic lecture by libertarians about Argentina in Rostov, indicating hybrid tactics for suppressing ideological dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns reports a proposal for a state-controlled VPN in Russia with Gosuslugi authorization, indicating hybrid control over the information environment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Defensive Posture: Maintained resilient defensive posture, effectively repelling numerous RF assaults on multiple axes (Kursk/Sumy, Eastern axes). Well-equipped and professional personnel. UA air defense demonstrates high effectiveness against UAVs (311 targets shot down/suppressed overnight) despite heavy, mixed RF attacks. UA forces in Kharkiv are actively receiving modern EW systems, bolstering defenses against RF ISR. General Staff of AFU provides operational information for 16:00, 28.07.2025, indicating continued situational awareness and active reporting on combat operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UA forces enduring over 800 RF strikes in 24 hours. RBC-Ukraine states the General Staff reported on the situation at the front, indicating continued vigilance and reporting by high command. New intelligence from 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) confirms continued defensive operations in Nikopol district against drone and artillery attacks. Олександр Вілкул (UA official) provides a briefing summarizing the situation on 28.07.25, indicating continued defensive leadership and readiness in Kropyvnytskyi. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) provides photos of a soldier operating a heavy machine gun (DShK and Browning M2), highlighting air defense readiness. New intelligence from Zelenskiy / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 highlights that Zelenskyy signed a law strengthening the SBU, increasing its capabilities and personnel, particularly for special operations, indicating a strengthened defensive and offensive posture. New intelligence from Оперативний ЗСУ confirms 7 of 18 IRIS-T SLM systems from Germany have been delivered to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports on operational information as of 22:00 28.07.25, indicating continued high-level reporting on force posture and readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports Ukraine received first batch of Patria APCs from Latvia, indicating continued reinforcement of defensive posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Zelenskiy / Official thanks soldiers and provides updates on drone neutralization, highlighting strengthened SSU capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Drone Capabilities: Continued effective employment of drones for reconnaissance and strike, e.g., 63rd Brigade in Torske. FPV drone video from "Voin DV" shows effective use of thermobaric and incendiary munitions against strongholds. Innovative approaches to air defense (e.g., anti-aircraft FPVs). Successful crowdfunding (460 FPV drones purchased in two days) indicates strong public support and rapid acquisition of vital assets. "STERNENKO" highlights the increasing role of drones in the war for both sides, emphasizing the importance of air dominance/parity. "Оперативний ЗСУ" released drone footage from the 225th Battalion in Kindrativka, demonstrating continued operational use. STERNENKO reports UA_REG TEAM destroying Russian logistics in Kursk region confirms effective cross-border drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a Ukrainian drone based on a light-motor aircraft capable of transporting a FAB-250 aerial bomb, indicating development of significant offensive drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) OTU "Kharkiv" video shows continued destruction of enemy personnel and vehicles in Kharkiv region, highlighting the 42nd Mechanized Brigade's involvement and featuring "Molniya" and "Kub-ZALA" drones. STERNENKO's video shows "Posipaki" and "Wild Hornets" drone operators in action. Butusov Plus posts imagery of a drone with Ukrainian flag markings. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) CyberBoroshno is running a recruitment campaign for drone interception roles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Butusov Plus video shows Ukrainian assault and reconnaissance units clearing a settlement, demonstrating continued UA offensive and drone capabilities. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України shows drone footage of the 46th Airmobile Brigade conducting surveillance and strikes on enemy vehicles, indicating continued effective aerial reconnaissance and strike capabilities. Tsaplienko (UA source) reports a group of 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" fighters ambushed occupiers near Pokrovsk, using drone-dropped munitions against RF personnel, highlighting UA drone strike capabilities. STERNENKO shares a video which appears to be drone footage showing a military engagement, including an explosion, focus on personnel in a trench, and a call for donations, suggesting active combat and fundraising for UA forces. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports expert analysis indicating ZSU (UA Armed Forces) are moving to a new phase after the liberation of Kindrativka, discussing counter-offensives and stabilizing efforts near Yablunivka and the northern sector. Mykolaivskiy Vanok (UA source) reports drone footage showing a successful engagement with RF soldiers, claiming 4,687 losses in July. New intelligence indicates 2nd Motorized Infantry Battalion, 93rd Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" is actively inflicting losses on the enemy in Bakhmut and Pokrovsk directions. New intelligence from Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" features a Ukrainian soldier making a direct appeal for donations for FPV drone components, emphasizing their critical role and effectiveness in liberating territory, indicating continued tactical innovation and resource needs. New intelligence from Бутусов ПЛЮС shows Ukrainian soldiers using drones for supply drops to frontline positions. New intelligence from Бутусов ПЛЮС shows drone footage of vehicles being struck by munitions, indicating continued effective UA drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video footage captioned "Assault and reconnaissance units clearing the settlement of occupiers," indicating continued effective UA drone and ground capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Zelenskiy / Official thanks soldiers and provides updates on drone neutralization, highlighting strengthened SSU capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: STERNENKO posts a photo of a destroyed RF target from a drone's perspective, indicating continued UA drone success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 calls for donations to close a fundraising drive for "Night Sheikhs," implying continued successful UA night drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Logistics & Sustainment: Dependence on foreign aid for advanced systems (Patriot, AI-powered drones). Active crowdfunding indicates ongoing grassroots support for tactical needs. Efforts to secure alternative energy supplies (Azerbaijani gas) reduce reliance on external providers. "STERNENKO" confirms Ukraine's first import of Azerbaijani gas via Naftogaz. Government is strengthening support for veterans and families of fallen servicemen, including electronic veteran IDs and simplified access to benefits. Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office uncovered 15 individuals attempting to sell "trophy" weapons, indicating internal efforts to combat illicit arms trafficking, which could affect logistics and security. The Prosecutor General's Office also reports a criminal case for illegal sand extraction in Kyiv, highlighting a continued focus on corruption/economic crime. German government aid (likely humanitarian or non-military) has been delivered to Kharkiv communities. The Prosecutor General's Office also reports on illegal privatization of communal land in Bukovyna worth 10 million UAH, indicating continued efforts to combat corruption affecting state resources. The General Prosecutor's Office of Ukraine details suspicion against 13 officials in Khmelnytska Oblast for budget losses over 10 million UAH and undeclared assets of 30 million UAH, indicating ongoing efforts to combat corruption within the government, crucial for effective resource management and international trust. New intelligence from Офіс Генерального прокурора reports new facts of budget embezzlement and abuse of power in Bukovyna, causing almost 23 million UAH in losses, with nine officials notified of suspicion. This reinforces ongoing efforts to combat corruption. RBC-Ukraine reports on the strategic significance of Azerbaijan gas for Ukraine, detailing the benefits of a new route. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports that Ukraine's national debt increased by $3.88 billion in June to $184.84 billion, indicating continued financial challenges and reliance on external support. New intelligence from Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" features a Ukrainian soldier making a direct appeal for donations for FPV drone components, highlighting critical resource needs at the tactical level. New intelligence from Бутусов ПЛЮС shows Ukrainian soldiers using drones for supply drops to frontline positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports Ukraine received first batch of Patria APCs from Latvia, indicating continued and diversified logistical support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that shelling and crop failures have worsened Ukraine's economic outlook for the next 1.5 years, indicating significant economic constraints. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy signed a law on payments to families of military personnel killed in captivity, addressing a critical social and logistical need. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: TASS reports the EC sent a warning to Kyiv about the possible full suspension of financial aid if anti-corruption bodies are pressured, indicating an ongoing condition for financial support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Training & Morale: High morale, reinforced by commemorations (Olenivka), national celebrations, and public acknowledgment of successful AD and combat operations (e.g., liberation of Kindrativka, successful drone strikes). UA is officially commemorating the victims of the Olenivka tragedy (Kyiv City Military Administration, Coordination Staff for POWs, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація, ОТУ "Харків"), highlighting Russian war crimes and reinforcing resolve. General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reaffirms that "Ukraine has a real support - its defenders." Zelenskiy / Official's meeting with freed POWs and their families underscores national commitment to their return and support. Butusov Plus's video of a Russian soldier suiciding after a UA drone attack, framed as a sign of RF morale and lack of value for life, is intended to boost UA morale and diminish RF morale perception. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine shared imagery of military working dogs and their handlers, suggesting ongoing K9 unit training/morale efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Desantno-shturmovi Viyska ZS Ukrainy posted photos of commanders inspecting troops, indicating focus on readiness and leadership. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zaporizhzhia OVA video on veteran rehabilitation aims to boost morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Coordination Staff for POWs held a meeting with families of State Border Guard Service personnel, showing continued support. Coordination Staff for POWs also promotes a "People of the Future" project for children. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine shows a large public gathering in Kyiv commemorating the Olenivka tragedy, with military presence and "FREE AZOV" banners, indicating strong public and military morale regarding POW issues. Zelenskiy / Official confirms a significant meeting at the Coordination Staff for POWs to discuss rehabilitation, reintegration, psychological support, and new approaches to exchange lists for returned POWs, indicating high-level commitment to personnel welfare. New intelligence from КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) confirms a key meeting at the Coordination Staff for POWs, including returned POWs themselves, to address medical, rehabilitation, psychological, and exchange list issues, showing proactive efforts to support personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Олександр Вілкул (UA official) provides a briefing summarizing the situation, reinforcing morale and public support. Mykolaivskiy Vanok (UA source) reports the launch of "Club MikVisti", a local media project, indicating continued local activity and communication. Mykolaivskiy Vanok (UA source) reports drone footage showing a successful engagement with RF soldiers, which will be received positively by the public as a sign of successful operations. New intelligence from Zelenskiy / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 highlights that Zelenskyy signed a law strengthening the SBU, increasing its capabilities and personnel, bolstering morale and showing strong state support for defense. New intelligence from Оперативний ЗСУ reports the Ukrainian government appointed Tetiana Berezhna as acting Minister of Culture and Strategic Communications, indicating continued government function and support for morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports on operational information as of 22:00 28.07.25, providing consistent updates for military and public awareness, contributing to morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy signed a law on payments to families of military personnel killed in captivity, providing critical support for morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Zelenskiy / Official thanks soldiers and provides updates on drone neutralization, Air Force, and SSU, strengthening national confidence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 calls for donations to close a fundraising drive for "Night Sheikhs," reinforcing morale through public participation and perceived success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:
  • Air Defense: Highly successful interception rates against RF UAVs and some missiles, with 311 enemy targets shot down/suppressed overnight. Confirmed shoot-down of Shahed-136 over Kyiv. While some Kinzhals may be unaccounted for by UA, no major confirmed hits from them by UA. RF claims Kinzhal strike on a military airfield and ammunition depot, but UA has not confirmed significant impact. UA Air Force (Tsaplienko) highlights "missing" Kinzhals after attack. UA Air Force reports possible PPO activity against UAV in Southern Chernihiv region. Kyiv air alert declared "all clear" after ballistic threat. Ballistic threat from Chernihiv to Kyiv lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports a reduction in Kalibr attacks from the Black Sea due to lack of missile carriers, indicating a successful defense or attrition measure against RF naval missile capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) provides a video showcasing a Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet, indicating continued operational readiness and deterrence. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UA source) provides photos of a soldier operating a heavy machine gun (DShK and Browning M2) against aerial targets, demonstrating successful air defense tactics. New intelligence from Оперативний ЗСУ confirms 7 of 18 IRIS-T SLM systems from Germany have been delivered. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Ukraine has received 7 IRIS-T air defense systems from Germany, with 11 more expected, demonstrating continued Western military support and UA's successful acquisition efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Zelenskiy / Official thanks soldiers and provides updates on drone neutralization by interceptor drones and Air Force aviation, confirming ongoing air defense success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Mash na Donbasse reports enemy drones working with PVO in Donetsk, implying successful UA drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Defense: Repelled numerous RF assaults on eastern axes (Pokrovsk, Siversk) and Kursk/Sumy direction (9 assaults repelled). Effective tactical engagements by FPV drone operators, successfully hitting dug-in positions, armored vehicles, and mortar emplacements (63rd Brigade, "Voin DV" video). UA "Chartiya" brigade repelling infantry assaults in Kharkiv. OTU "Kharkiv" video shows continued destruction of RF forces by UA. Military analyst claims RF ambition to capture bridgehead between Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka has been thwarted. General Staff of AFU reports ongoing operational information, indicating active and effective defense. Butusov Plus reports a successful tank duel by the UA 54th Separate Mechanized Brigade, where a UA tank successfully engaged and neutralized an RF tank. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatyvnyi ZSU reports the 4th Separate Assault Battalion "Strength of Freedom" conducting a special operation "Sirun" (likely a tactical offensive or reconnaissance mission), showing a soldier in a field with explosions, indicating active combat operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Butusov Plus video shows Ukrainian assault and reconnaissance units clearing a settlement of occupiers, indicating successful ground operations. Сили оборони Півдня України shows the 44th Artillery Brigade successfully destroying enemy 2A36 Giatsint-B and 2A65 Msta-B self-propelled howitzers, demonstrating effective counter-battery fire and precision targeting. Tsaplienko (UA source) reports a group of 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" fighters ambushed occupiers near Pokrovsk, neutralizing multiple individuals with drone-dropped munitions, demonstrating successful UA tactical offensive operations. STERNENKO shares a video which appears to be drone footage showing a military engagement, including an explosion, focus on personnel in a trench, and a call for donations, suggesting active combat and fundraising for UA forces. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports expert analysis indicating ZSU (UA Armed Forces) are moving to a new phase after the liberation of Kindrativka, discussing counter-offensives and stabilizing efforts near Yablunivka and the northern sector. Mykolaivskiy Vanok (UA source) reports drone footage showing a successful engagement with RF soldiers, claiming 4,687 losses in July. New intelligence indicates 2nd Motorized Infantry Battalion, 93rd Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" is actively inflicting losses on the enemy in Bakhmut and Pokrovsk directions. New intelligence from Бутусов ПЛЮС shows drone footage of vehicles being struck by munitions, indicating continued effective UA drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video footage captioned "Assault and reconnaissance units clearing the settlement of occupiers," confirming successful UA ground offensive operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: STERNENKO posts a photo of a destroyed RF target from a drone's perspective, indicating continued UA ground success against RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Рыбарь posts an updated map showing areas under UA control or contested, indicating ongoing ground operations and defensive successes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Territorial Gains: Liberation of Kindrativka in Sumy Oblast by the 225th Separate Assault Battalion, demonstrating offensive capabilities in border regions. "Оперативний ЗСУ" and "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" released footage from Kindrativka, showing its liberation and the aftermath, confirming successful operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Deep Strike (RF Territory): Continued successful drone attacks on RF territory, including Leningrad Oblast (casualties reported) and railway infrastructure, demonstrating offensive reach. Cyber-attacks attributed to pro-UA hackers (Belarusian) severely disrupted Aeroflot's IT systems, with Оперативний ЗСУ claiming 7,000 servers deleted and attributing it to a security lapse by the Aeroflot CEO. STERNENKO reports UA_REG TEAM destroying Russian logistics in Kursk region confirms effective cross-border drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Ukrainian channels show video of grass burning and explosions in Rostov region, possibly aftermath of UA drone activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO reports a fire at the 210th Military Training Center in Kstovo, Russia, which trains military specialists including sappers and EOD personnel. This is a significant deep strike against RF military training infrastructure. New intelligence from ASTRA reports a fire at a military center near Nizhny Novgorod, confirming the incident from a different source, albeit with an attempt to downplay it as a "burning garage." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Север.Реалии (UA/RF-critical source) confirms the Aeroflot cyberattack was conducted by pro-Ukrainian groups Silent Crow and Belarusian Cyberpartisans, claiming destruction of thousands of servers and access to critical systems, confirming the severity of the cyber operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: STERNENKO reports on drone safety in Rostov Oblast, implying continued UA drone activity over RF territory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Counter-Intelligence: SBU detained a Belarusian KGB agent spying on Ukraine's northern border, confirming successful counter-intelligence operations. Prosecutor General's Office busting illicit arms trafficking ring (Оперативний ЗСУ confirms 15 detained). The General Prosecutor's Office confirms suspicion against 13 officials in Khmelnytska Oblast for corruption, indicating continued internal efforts to combat graft. New intelligence from Офіс Генерального прокурора reports new facts of budget embezzlement and abuse of power in Bukovyna, causing almost 23 million UAH in losses, with nine officials notified of suspicion. This reinforces ongoing efforts to combat corruption. New intelligence from Zelenskiy / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 highlights that Zelenskyy signed a law strengthening the SBU, increasing its capabilities and personnel, bolstering counter-intelligence efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo messages captioned "Brazilians in GUR service," indicating RF is highlighting the presence of foreign fighters on the UA side, suggesting UA intelligence operations may involve foreign nationals, and UA ability to recruit from diverse backgrounds. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Zelenskiy / Official highlights increased SSU capabilities in conducting combat tasks and special operations, confirming a strengthening of counter-intelligence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Corruption Reforms: Zelenskyy signed laws on ARMA reform and factoring, addressing key international demands. The Prosecutor General's Office prosecuting illegal sand extraction in Kyiv region and illegal land privatization in Bukovyna further demonstrates anti-corruption efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: TASS reports the EC sent a warning to Kyiv about the possible full suspension of financial aid if anti-corruption bodies are pressured, indicating continued international scrutiny and UA's efforts to meet it. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Gains: Macron promised Zelenskyy increased pressure on Russia. Ukraine suspended CFE Treaty obligations. Ukraine is preparing for a new "Ramstein" meeting, with Prime Minsiter Shmyhal discussing defense coordination with the USA, indicating continued high-level support. Erdogan's statements about a "peace table" in Turkey suggest ongoing diplomatic avenues. New intelligence from РБК-Україна confirms Zelenskyy appointed Svitlana Zalishchuk as Ambassador to Sweden, indicating continued diplomatic engagement. New intelligence from Операция Z (citing Russian Spring) confirms Ukraine suspended CFE Treaty obligations, highlighting a strategic move by UA. New intelligence from КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) highlights a high-level meeting on POW welfare, further reinforcing Ukraine's commitment to its international obligations and humanitarian efforts. New intelligence from Офіс Генерального прокурора reports new facts of budget embezzlement and abuse of power in Bukovyna, causing almost 23 million UAH in losses, with nine officials notified of suspicion. This reinforces anti-corruption efforts vital for international trust. RBC-Ukraine reports on the strategic significance of Azerbaijan gas for Ukraine, detailing the benefits of a new route. RBC-Ukraine reports on Trump's new US-EU trade agreement, which may have implications for Ukraine's economic ties. STERNENKO (UA source) asks about a previously seen interview, indicating continued information sharing within UA media to support the war effort. New intelligence from РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy's statement on Trump's new deadline for Putin, highlighting Ukraine's active engagement with US diplomatic rhetoric. New intelligence from Оперативний ЗСУ confirms 7 of 18 IRIS-T SLM systems from Germany have been delivered. New intelligence from Оперативний ЗСУ reports the Ukrainian government appointed Tetiana Berezhna as acting Minister of Culture and Strategic Communications, indicating continued government function and focus on strategic communications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Ukraine has received 7 IRIS-T air defense systems from Germany, with 11 more expected, demonstrating continued Western military support and diplomatic success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports Ukraine received first batch of Patria APCs from Latvia, indicating continued international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Zelenskiy / Official discusses recent conversations with President Macron of France regarding Ukraine's funding needs for drones and a separate conversation with the President of Estonia, thanking them for their support and principled stance on European integration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports the head of Russia's Federation Council (Matviyenko) arrived in Switzerland, with Ukraine's MFA reminding her that her place is in The Hague. This indicates continued Ukrainian diplomatic pressure and attempts to hold RF officials accountable. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Industrial Partnerships: Bell Helicopters plans to invest in Ukrainian industry and deploy helicopter production in Ukraine. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a new Ukrainian drone based on a light-motor aircraft capable of transporting a FAB-250 aerial bomb, indicating development of significant offensive drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Logistics: Secured import of Azerbaijani gas via the Trans-Balkan corridor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Infrastructure Repair: Kryvyi Rih repairing 714 elevators, indicating continued civilian infrastructure maintenance despite conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Олександр Вілкул (UA official) provides a briefing summarizing the situation, likely including infrastructure repair efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • EW Provision: Kharkiv Oblast Administration confirmed providing modern EW equipment to defenders. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Prisoner Returns: Zelenskiy states over 1,000 Ukrainian warriors returned through Istanbul exchanges, showing continued efforts and success in prisoner returns. Coordination Staff for POWs held an expanded meeting with President Zelenskyy to discuss POW issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy signed a law on payments to families of military personnel killed in captivity, providing critical support for families of those who have been subject to the challenges of captivity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Posturing: Trump's statement "I am very disappointed with Putin" and "no longer interested in talking" could be a positive shift in rhetorical support, though must be weighed against other Trump statements. RBC-Ukraine highlights Trump's criticism of Putin for spending on "killings instead of economic development." Alex Parker Returns highlights Trump's stated disappointment with Putin and his belief that he could not negotiate, indicating a public acknowledgment of failed diplomacy by a key international actor. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Trump evading questions about Putin's respect. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника (RF source) shows a video of Donald Trump stating he is "no longer interested in talking" with the Russian President, confirming this diplomatic shift and its potential benefit for Ukraine. New intelligence from РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy's statement on Trump's new deadline for Putin, indicating active diplomatic engagement with US rhetoric. New intelligence from RBC-Ukraine reports Trump claiming credit for the ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Zelenskiy / Official references a statement by President Trump and reiterates that Russia is actively trying to undermine peace efforts and prolong the war. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Setbacks:
  • Civilian Casualties & Infrastructure Damage: Significant civilian casualties (8 in Kyiv's Darnitsky district, 2 in Dnipropetrovsk, 3 in Sumy, 2-year-old child in Zaporizhzhia, 1 civilian in Tavolzhanka (claimed by RF)) and widespread damage to residential areas due to RF missile and drone attacks, particularly in Kyiv, Khmelnytska, and Kropyvnytskyi (DSNS building hit). Strike on the "Zvezda" ammunition plant in Shostka is a significant blow to UA's domestic defense industry. Power outages in Kyiv due to weather. Kherson police video shows officers attending to injured individuals, likely civilians, confirming ongoing impacts. Mykolaiv facing potential two-day water cut. An "arrival" has been reported in Kyiv due to ballistic missile threat, and an explosion near Pryluky, Chernihiv, indicates another hit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Oleh Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv OVA, reports that at least 30 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast, including Kharkiv City, were hit by enemy strikes last week, with imagery of extensive damage, indicating continued widespread RF targeting. Mash na Donbasse reports a neurosurgeon killed and his family wounded in Oleshky due to a UA shell strike. While this is RF propaganda, it highlights the continued civilian casualties in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Over 800 RF strikes in 24 hours in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with RF "hunting civilians." New intelligence from 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) confirms Nikopol district, Marhanets, Pokrovske, and Myrove communities were under enemy drone and artillery fire, causing damage to civilian structures. New intelligence from Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА indicates a drone attacked Derhachivs'ka community. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports and provides video evidence of a Russian attack on a civilian "Zhiguli" car in Velyki Prokhody, north of Kharkiv, causing damage with bullet holes and shattered windshield, indicating direct targeting of civilians. Север.Реалии (UA/RF-critical source) confirms drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and residential buildings, indicating persistent and destructive aerial tactics. New intelligence from TASS reports a Ukrainian UAV attacked rescuers in Enerhodar during firefighting, indicating a new alleged incident of UA targeting civilian services. New intelligence from TASS reports a civilian was injured due to a UA drone attack on a car in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. New intelligence from Два майора shows drone footage of a destroyed building complex in Tokarevka, Kharkiv Oblast, which is a setback in terms of infrastructure. New intelligence from RBC-Ukraine reports people swimming in Odesa during Shahed attacks, highlighting civilian vulnerability and potential for tragedy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: UA Air Force reports KABs inbound to Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts, indicating continued aerial bombardment causing potential civilian and infrastructure damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad reports a Ukrainian sea mine washed ashore on Odesa beach after a storm. This presents a safety hazard to civilians and indicates a potential security setback. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns reports Donetsk under massive strike, with power outages. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Mash на Донбассе reports explosions in Donetsk, power outages, and enemy drones working with PVO, confirming continued infrastructure damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • EW Impact: Continued degradation of UA UAS operations due to enhanced RF EW capabilities on key axes, though specific updates on this are lacking in the current report, the Mod Russia video on Sumy suggests RF counter-drone actions are active. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - from previous reports, likely ongoing). The provision of EW systems to Kharkiv suggests an ongoing need to counter RF EW. RF (Basurin) claims their drones are more EW-resistant, which is a concern. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" video on "Fighting with fiber-optic drones" indicates a new/evolving threat in this domain. Дневник Десантника's report of 7th Airborne Division soldiers requesting Starlink and drones suggests some RF tactical units face communication and ISR challenges despite overall EW superiority. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from Военкор Котенок claims FPV drones on fiber optics are a new trend, potentially limiting EW effectiveness against these systems. New intelligence from Шеф Hayabusa shows a video humorously suggesting RF has found a way to jam "fiber-optic" drones with "bell ringing," indicating that UA acknowledges the challenge. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Territorial Losses: RF advances reported on Pokrovsk and Krasnolimansky directions, and claimed capture of Plavni and continued assaults near Stepnohirsk, representing tactical setbacks. RF MoD and Kotsnews claim liberation of Boykivka and Belhiyka, which TASS reports has led to UA withdrawal from Boykivka. Colonelcassad reports RF assault groups advancing in Kharkiv Oblast near Melovoye. Kadyrov's forces operating in Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast) indicates RF tactical presence in contested urban areas. DeepState map showing "grey zone" in Dnipropetropetsky Oblast needs further assessment, but could indicate RF gains. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports the Russian army has expanded its zone of control near Myropillia in Sumy Oblast, indicating a territorial loss. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Russia attempting to retake Kindrativka from Kursk Oblast, indicating a setback in holding recently liberated territory. Basurin о главном (RF source) claims UA forces surrendered Maliivka in Dnipropetropetsky Oblast, indicating a territorial loss. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim). New intelligence from Воин DV claims the UA 25th Brigade is losing shelters in Sukhiy Yar, indicating a tactical setback. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad (Boris Rozhin) claims RF DRGs have entered Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and have fire control over a road to Rodinskoye, with a prediction that Rodinskoye could fall within 1-2 weeks without UA reinforcement, representing a significant potential territorial loss and operational setback. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Операция Z (citing Russkaya Vesna) states "Russian Army breaking through to Siversk," indicating a potential new territorial loss. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). NEW INTEL: "Сливочный каприз" reports RF ground forces active near Chasiv Yar and Shevchenko, suggesting potential further territorial losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Рыбарь posts an updated map showing contested areas and potential losses in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Financial Aid: EU aid freeze (EUR 1.5 billion) due to anti-corruption concerns remains a significant financial constraint. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports that Ukraine's national debt increased by $3.88 billion in June to $184.84 billion, indicating a growing financial burden and potential setback if international aid falters. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that shelling and crop failures have worsened Ukraine's economic outlook for the next 1.5 years, indicating significant economic constraints. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: TASS reports the EC sent a warning to Kyiv about the possible full suspension of financial aid if anti-corruption bodies are pressured, indicating a potential major financial setback. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Political Friction: Protests in Kyiv against anti-corruption laws highlight ongoing domestic political challenges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Olenivka Commemoration: While a critical act of remembrance, the ongoing need to commemorate such a horrific event highlights the enduring impact of Russian war crimes and the continued plight of POWs. The Coordination Staff for POWs meeting highlights continued public engagement on the issue of prisoners and also features "People of the Future" project for children in Rivne region, indicating efforts to support families and future generations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cyber Disruption (Indirect): While the Aeroflot hack is a UA success, the subsequent operational disruption within Russia and the long estimated recovery time (6 months to a year) highlights the potential for similar attacks to cause significant chaos, which could indirectly impact broader regional stability. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Information Warfare Impact: New RF narratives regarding a "deadline" from Trump for Ukraine settlement, and the potential for secondary sanctions, could create diplomatic pressure or uncertainty. RF accusations of corruption within UA military leadership could undermine trust. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Logistics Interdiction (RF Claims): Podubny's video indicates RF strike UAVs are actively targeting UA transport on approaches to Oleksandrohrad, which could contribute to logistical challenges in that area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Issues: RF probing of borders (Estonia) could divert resources. The reported helicopter crash in Kazakhstan, while not directly related to Ukraine, could signify broader regional instability or impact on former Soviet states, indirectly diverting attention or resources. New intelligence from РБК-Україна reports on a train accident in Germany with five Ukrainians among passengers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports the head of Russia's Federation Council (Matviyenko) arrived in Switzerland, with Ukraine's MFA reminding her that her place is in The Hague. This indicates continued Ukrainian diplomatic pressure and attempts to hold RF officials accountable. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security (London): Two killed, two injured in knife attack. While not directly related to Ukraine, this domestic incident in a key Western partner could indirectly impact security focus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Air Defense: Continued critical need for advanced air defense systems (Patriot) and interceptor munitions to counter sophisticated and massed RF aerial attacks, especially given the "unaccounted for" Kinzhals and the confirmed targeting of military airfields and ammunition depots. Urgent need for defense against ballistic threats in Kyiv and surrounding regions, and for Pryluky. New intelligence from Оперативний ЗСУ confirms 7 of 18 IRIS-T SLM systems from Germany have been delivered, but the remaining 11 are still a critical requirement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Ukraine received 7 IRIS-T systems and expects 11 more, highlighting continued requirement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Counter-EW: Accelerate the development and deployment of robust counter-EW capabilities to mitigate RF's impact on UA drone operations and C2, particularly on critical combat axes (Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Chernihiv). Secure EW-resistant communication channels. Ensure effective deployment and training for new EW systems, with a focus on countering claimed RF drone improvements in EW resistance and AI targeting, and new threats like fiber-optic drones. Promote recruitment for counter-drone roles. Provide immediate support for UA soldiers appealing for FPV drone components. Analyze and respond to RF's humorously framed "bell ringing" jamming claims to prevent complacency and develop effective countermeasures.
• Drones: Sustained high demand for FPV and reconnaissance drones; AI-powered drone kits are crucial for maintaining tactical overmatch. The rapid acquisition of 460 FPV drones is positive, but consistent supply remains vital. "STERNENKO" emphasizes the crucial role of drones and the need for air dominance/parity. "Два майора" video showing batteries for drones indicates ongoing logistical requirements. Дневник Десантника's request for drones and Starlink from the RF side highlights the universal importance of these assets. The development of a UA FAB-250 carrying drone suggests a new requirement for larger, long-range strike drones. Recruitment for drone interception roles indicates continued need for personnel. Continued demand for drones for reconnaissance and strike missions, as evidenced by the 46th Airmobile Brigade's operations. New intelligence from РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ regarding Russian modernization of Shaheds and transition to jet drones indicates an evolving threat, requiring further innovation and resources in UA drone and counter-drone capabilities. New intelligence from Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" features a Ukrainian soldier making a direct appeal for donations for FPV drone components, highlighting an immediate and critical need for these resources. New intelligence from Бутусов ПЛЮС shows Ukrainian soldiers using drones for supply drops to frontline positions. New intelligence from Бутусов ПЛЮС shows drone footage of vehicles being struck by munitions, indicating continued high demand for drones and ammunition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Zelenskiy / Official discusses recent conversations with President Macron of France regarding Ukraine's funding needs for drones, highlighting a specific resource requirement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 calls for donations to close a fundraising drive for "Night Sheikhs," highlighting continued resource needs for night drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Logistics: Continued efforts to secure and protect logistical routes for frontline resupply and civilian needs, especially in areas subjected to interdiction efforts or damage, and considering the strategic importance of routes around Pokrovsk. Addressing illicit arms trafficking and illegal sand extraction is also important for internal security and resource control. The water shortage in occupied Donetsk highlights the importance of vital infrastructure sustainment. Mykolaiv's potential water cut highlights the need for resilient civilian infrastructure.
• Financial Support: Unlocking frozen EU aid and ensuring consistent international financial support remains paramount for overall sustainment. Continued preparations for "Ramstein" meetings are critical for coordinating and securing this support. Combating corruption within government structures, as highlighted by the General Prosecutor's Office actions in Khmelnytska Oblast and Bukovyna, is critical for securing and maintaining international financial aid and trust. Оперативний ЗСУ (UA source) reports that Ukraine's national debt increased by $3.88 billion in June to $184.84 billion, indicating a significant and growing financial constraint. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that shelling and crop failures have worsened Ukraine's economic outlook for the next 1.5 years, indicating significant economic constraints. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: TASS reports the EC sent a warning to Kyiv about the possible full suspension of financial aid if anti-corruption bodies are pressured, indicating financial support is contingent on anti-corruption efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Infrastructure Repair: Continued resources needed for civil infrastructure repair, especially in areas prone to repeated strikes (e.g., Kyiv, Kropyvnytskyi, Kherson, occupied Donetsk, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv Oblast). Олександр Вілкул (UA official) provides a briefing summarizing the situation, likely including infrastructure repair needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns reports Donetsk under massive strike, with power outages, highlighting immediate infrastructure repair needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Public Health: Increased attention to public health issues in frontline and impacted areas, as exemplified by the hepatitis campaign in Zaporizhzhia, indicates a need for continued focus on civilian health services under wartime conditions.
• Personnel Welfare (POWs): Continued resources and systemic approaches are required for the medical, psychological, and social rehabilitation and reintegration of returned POWs, as highlighted by the Coordination Staff for POWs meeting. This includes streamlining medical commissions and expanding mental health programs. NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy signed a law on payments to families of military personnel killed in captivity, addressing a critical social and logistical need. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Narratives (Primary Focus):
  • Victimization/Justification: Continue to portray Ukraine as targeting civilians (Sumy bus, ambulance claims, 2-year-old child injured in Zaporizhzhia due to "AFU strike on private house", 1 civilian killed in Tavolzhanka, Kharkiv Oblast by UA drone) and conducting "terror attacks" within Russia (Krasnodar arrests, warning of "massive attack" on RF territory, referencing past civilian casualties, Rostov fire/explosions). Emphasis on Russian internal security threats (Crocus City Hall investigation details, Astrakhan incident, though the "no gas leak" contradicts earlier "gas explosion" claims and a criminal case is now opened). Explicitly labeling detained individuals as "agents of GUR Ukraine." The strike on Shostka's "Zvezda" plant is likely framed as a legitimate military target. Commemorating "children victims of war in Donbas" at the US Embassy in Moscow to garner sympathy and blame Ukraine/West. Peskov denies 3 injured in Astrakhan, attempting to downplay impact. "Два майора" reported on the detention of a resident in Oleshky for undermining monuments to ATO veterans, portraying this as a successful counter-sabotage operation. Mash na Donbasse's report on water shortages in Donetsk, with residents suspecting "deliberate issues," could be used to blame Ukraine for poor infrastructure. Janus Putkonen's video "Alley of Angels" and child choir reinforces the narrative of Ukrainian culpability for child casualties in Donbas, specifically for the Day of Memory for Killed Children in Donbas. Operation Z's video with an ex-Ukrainian ombudsman aims to discredit Ukrainian officials' claims of genocide. TASS reports RF request to OPCW to investigate UA use of prohibited weapons. Rybar reporting "Provocation in Sretensky Monastery" suggests RF attempts to create or blame incidents. Colonelcassad uses highly inflammatory language "Папу и сына могут сдать на мясо в ТЦК и вернуть немцам долг" to dehumanize Ukrainians and mobilize against perceived Western influence, suggesting forced mobilization. AV Bogomaz claims "Kyiv regime committing inhumane crimes against peaceful citizens." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника video of FSB detention of alleged GUR agents in Krasnodar Krai reinforces RF claims of UA sabotage. Mash na Donbasse reports the death of a neurosurgeon in Oleshky due to a UA shell strike, aiming to portray UA as targeting civilians. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad includes an Iranian intelligence statement regarding a "quiet battle with intelligence NATO in a 12-day imposed war," which is highly likely to be RF propaganda aligning with their "entire West" narrative and possibly linking to Trump's "deadline." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Rybar's video shows a captured Ukrainian soldier thanking Russian forces for humane treatment, a direct propaganda effort to counter narratives of poor POW treatment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad also explicitly attacks Ukrainian celebrity Laima Vaikule for calling for weapons supplies to Ukraine, aiming to demonize pro-Ukrainian figures and deter further support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration highlights RF "hunting civilians" in Zaporizhzhia, confirming RF's focus on civilian targeting as a propaganda point against Ukraine. New intelligence from Дневник Десантника features a video of a presumably captured UA soldier discussing "crimes against civilians" in Kursk Oblast, clearly a Russian propaganda effort to justify actions and discredit UA. New intelligence from 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) explicitly attributes drone and artillery strikes in Nikopol district to RF, providing imagery of damage to civilian structures. New intelligence from Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА indicates a drone attacked Derhachivs'ka community, which RF will deny or attribute to UA friendly fire. MoD Russia video shows a soldier speaking about providing first aid to both Russian and Ukrainian wounded, claiming UA commanders abandon their wounded. This is a propaganda effort to discredit Ukrainian command and portray RF as humane. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports and provides video evidence of a Russian attack on a civilian "Zhiguli" car in Velyki Prokhody, north of Kharkiv, with visible damage, which RF will deny or attribute to UA friendly fire. Север.Реалии (UA/RF-critical source) confirms drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and residential buildings, indicating persistent and destructive aerial tactics, which RF will deny civilian impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatsiya Z (RF source) provides photo messages related to the restoration of the Kazan Mother of God Monastery, reinforcing religious narratives and "rebuilding" efforts in occupied territories. Mykolaivskiy Vanok (UA source) reports drone footage showing two groups of RF soldiers targeted by an explosion, likely to be used by RF to claim UA targeting of personnel. New intelligence from TASS reports a Ukrainian UAV attacked rescuers in Enerhodar during firefighting, a clear propaganda effort by RF to portray UA as targeting civilians and emergency services. New intelligence from Рыбарь provides an infographic image "They are bad again," indicating a continued focus on portraying certain entities negatively, likely as part of information warfare. New intelligence from TASS reports a civilian was injured due to a UA drone attack on a car in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, aligning with RF intent to portray UA as targeting civilians. New intelligence from Операция Z (RF source) claims Russian army struck Pryluky airbase, targeting a US "Black Hawk" UH-60 of GUR special forces, which will be used to justify the strike and portray UA as housing foreign military assets. New intelligence from ASTRA reports a military commissariat inspector in Bryansk Oblast persuaded a man to marry her and go to the "SVO," where he was killed. This highlights potential coercive recruitment tactics. New intelligence from Два майора shows drone footage of a destroyed building complex in Tokarevka, Kharkiv Oblast, which RF will use to blame UA shelling and highlight civilian suffering. New intelligence from RBC-Ukraine reports people swimming in Odesa during Shahed attacks, highlighting civilian vulnerability and potential for tragedy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad reports a Ukrainian sea mine washed ashore on Odesa beach after a storm. This will be leveraged by RF to highlight civilian threats posed by UA actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad reports three young men detained for damaging the "Blockade Tram" monument in St. Petersburg. RF will use this to highlight internal law and order and attribute vandalism to individual bad actors rather than systemic issues, possibly linking them to "extremism" related to the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns video shows the Director of Sevastopol Aquarium-Museum, Yuri Kravtsov, stating that the portrait of Kadyrov was removed by an unknown man and that such actions "smell of extremism." Kravtsov ordered the portrait returned, arguing Kadyrov has a right to be among great commanders, linking the "SVO" to WWII. This indicates an internal ideological struggle regarding Kadyrov's public image and the war's narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: НгП раZVедка posts photo messages about "time for fun" and childhood games, possibly to distract from military news or for morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns reports Donetsk under massive strike, with power outages, attributing civilian harm to UA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Mash na Donbasse reports explosions in Donetsk, power outages, and enemy drones working with PVO, implying UA caused civilian disruption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: ASTRA reports that "Русская община" (Russian Community) disrupted an economic lecture by libertarians about Argentina in Rostov, framing it as an internal security measure against perceived ideological threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Military Success: Highlight claimed RF advances (Pokrovsk, Krasnolimansky, Plavni), successful AD intercepts, and new military capabilities (uncrewed kamikaze boats, robotic systems, TOS-2 flamethrower effectiveness). Propaganda video showing UA 25th Brigade losses in Sukhiy Yar. MoD Russia releasing footage of Tula paratroopers hitting AFU military hardware in Sumy region to showcase successes. "Otvazhnye" (Brave ones) destroying UA equipment and personnel near Pokrovsk and claiming liberation of Boykivka and Belhiyka (Kotsnews). TASS reports Belhiyka opens path to southern Krasnoarmeysk. TASS also reports UA withdrawal from Boykivka to third line of defense. RF MoD claims Kinzhal strike on military airfield/ammo depot and explicitly states it was a "group strike" including Kinzhals. RF sources highlight "Zaba" drone operations showing destroyed UA armor and claim their drones are "smarter" and more EW-resistant. "Дневник Десантника" claims Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) destroyed AFU temporary deployment points in DNR and Kharkiv Oblast using ODAB-1500 and FAB-500 aerial bombs, and also claims "complex strike" on five Ukrainian oblasts. WarGonzo highlights "Grad" artillery of the 41st Motorized Rifle Regiment, 44th Army Corps, "burning out Ukro-Nazis." MoD Russia consistently posts photo updates on "progress of special military operation." Операция Z video featuring "Русские дроны" destroying UA equipment reinforces RF claims of widespread drone effectiveness. "Zona SVO" video shows soldiers writing patriotic messages on artillery shells, a clear morale-boosting and propaganda effort. Colonelcassad reports on the situation in South Donetsk direction. Kadyrov's video showing "Zapad-AKHMAT" operations and a drone strike in Vovchansk is used to showcase effectiveness. MoD Russia posts video of artillerymen performing firing missions, demonstrating capability. Rybar's "Tanks bought" image is likely a propaganda effort regarding new equipment. RF MoD claimed "Rubikon" drones destroyed foreign-made UA drones, showing video evidence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника reports strike on UA temporary deployment point near Khortytsia Island using "Geraniums", demonstrating continued offensive capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Podubny's video on "Vostok" group UAV operators striking UA transport near Oleksandrohrad reinforces RF claims of effective logistics interdiction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Voin DV's report on 14th Guards Spetsnaz destroying a UA armored vehicle further reinforces claims of RF tactical success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS highlights drone use by emergency services in Astrakhan to survey building collapse, subtly showcasing RF technological capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad drone footage claims destruction of Ukrainian combatants and military equipment in Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts, reinforcing claims of RF military effectiveness. STERNENKO reporting a fire at the 210th Military Training Center in Kstovo, Russia, is likely to be downplayed or denied by RF, as it represents a significant setback to their military training capabilities. New intelligence from Alex Parker Returns shows a first-person perspective video of a soldier navigating a wooded area with a targeting reticle, likely used to showcase RF tactical operations. New intelligence from Бутусов ПЛЮС shows extensive damage to a light utility vehicle (possibly UAZ) after a military engagement, indicating RF losses, which RF will attempt to downplay or omit. "ZONA SVO" reports on "Akhmat" special forces UAV training, with video showing drone operations against Ukrainian targets, aiming to showcase their effectiveness. Бутусов ПЛЮС (UA source) shows a Russian soldier with a horse about to be hit by a drone, which RF will spin as showing resilience or downplay the use of animals. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports Russia attempting to retake Kindrativka from Kursk Oblast, which RF will frame as a successful counter-offensive. Colonelcassad (RF source) provides video footage showing an RF strike on an enemy assault group, used to showcase RF military effectiveness. Басурин о главном (RF source) claims UA forces surrendered Maliivka, which RF will use to demonstrate military success. Colonelcassad (RF source) reports on the combat work of scouts from the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade "Vostok" destroying a Humvee on the South Donetsk direction, used to highlight tactical success. Slyvochny kapriz (RF source) reports on Kurakhovo - Alekseevka on 28.07.25, with images showing a significant gathering of personnel and equipment, likely used to demonstrate RF force projection or operational readiness. Dnevnik Desantnika (RF source) posts photo messages with the caption "Kharkiv direction", reinforcing the narrative of active operations in this area. Mykolaivskiy Vanok (UA source) reports drone footage showing a successful engagement with RF soldiers, claiming 4,687 losses in July, indicating RF losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad (RF source) reports the Russian army has expanded its zone of control near Myropillia in Sumy Oblast, framed as a military success. New intelligence from Zona SVO indicates two Russian servicemen speaking about defending the motherland and signing contracts, likely intended as a morale boost and to showcase RF personnel dedication. New intelligence from Воин DV claims the UA 25th Brigade is losing shelters in Sukhiy Yar, directly indicating RF military success. New intelligence from Colonelcassad shows drone footage captioned "Donbas" with military vehicles, communication systems, and strikes, used to demonstrate ongoing effective operations. New intelligence from Два майора shows drone footage of a destroyed building complex in Tokarevka, Kharkiv Oblast, which RF will use to highlight the impact of their military actions. New intelligence from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shows an aerial view of a naval vessel or pontoon bridge being struck, which RF will use to demonstrate successful targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad (Boris Rozhin) discusses "successes of Russian troops in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk)," claiming entry into the city and fire control over a key supply route to Rodinskoye. This is a significant RF propaganda claim of a major ground advance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Операция Z (citing Russkaya Vesna) states "Russian Army breaking through to Siversk," highlighting a new RF offensive direction as a military success. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). NEW INTEL: MoD Russia reports on operational information as of 22:00 28.07.25, indicating continued centralized military reporting and strategic communication, framing ongoing operations as "progress." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Два майора posts a video showcasing "Frontline Armor" with Russian soldiers and a BM-21 Grad MLRS, indicating continued ground force deployment and morale-boosting efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Дневник Десантника posts a video captioned "Paratrooper brotherhood, family!", displaying soldiers and combat footage, likely a morale-boosting and recruitment message. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Два майора posts video of "Preparation. Sumy direction," showing soldiers undergoing rigorous training, framed as a military success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: "Сливочный каприз" reports on combat near Chasiv Yar and Shevchenko, indicating ongoing RF military activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Рыбарь posts an updated map detailing claimed RF military successes on the front lines. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: MoD Russia posts an image captioned "Top News Today," indicating curated military success reports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Western Weakness/Division: Amplify dissenting voices within the EU (Le Pen, Orban, Fico) and US (Trump statements, Politico article on potential US troop cuts in Europe) to portray Western disunity and an impending end to the conflict on RF terms. Medvedev actively promoting anti-Western narratives (US-EU trade deal "humiliating" for Europe). Lavrov explicitly stating Russia is fighting "the entire West" for the first first time in history, likely to frame the conflict as existential and rally internal support. Propaganda from "Starshe Eddy" pushing "insider" rumors about US-EU trade agreements to discredit Western leaders. TASS (Knaisl) pushing that protests against Zelenskyy are Western-organized and that Russia has a right to prevent Austria joining NATO, aiming to reassert influence. "Операция Z" propagates the narrative of "Trump subjugating Europe" via the US-EU energy deal. Rybar's photo message "British will defend Taiwan" is likely intended to highlight perceived Western overstretch/distraction. Colonelcassad shared Lavrov's statements on Russian peace conditions, emphasizing Russian demands. ТАСС and Оперативний ЗСУ highlight Trump's statement about cutting the 50 days given to Putin for an agreement, indicating RF desire to showcase direct US-RF negotiations and Trump's influence on the conflict. Оперативний ЗСУ quotes French PM Bayrou on US-EU trade deal being a "gloomy day for Europe," amplifying perceived Western internal division. Alex Parker Returns also reports Trump's frustration with Putin and shortening the "50 days ultimatum", confirming this narrative is widely disseminated. Alex Parker Returns's multiple posts about Trump in Scotland further reinforce attention on Trump's rhetoric. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New "deadline" from Trump (10-12 days) is being widely disseminated and amplified by RF sources, including TASS, Операция Z, Colonelcassad, and military bloggers, emphasizing Trump's influence and potential for quick resolution on RF terms, including warning of secondary sanctions if a deal is not reached. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF sources are also claiming that the US and EU have suspended their trade war. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF channels are highlighting Ukrainian official salaries being higher than the average in Ukraine, to fuel internal discontent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Trump's reported statements about "not interested in talking with Putin" are being widely covered by UA and RF sources. While some RF sources (TASS) highlight his shift, others (Operation Z) continue to highlight his 'liking for Russian people', indicating RF attempts to leverage any favorable statements. WarGonzo uses the "Trade Agreement: Capitulation of Europe" narrative to sow discord. Voenkor Kotenok frames Trump's contradictory statements as "cynicism and duplicity" to manage the narrative for a domestic audience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad amplifies French PM Bayrou's critical statement about "alliance of free nations deciding to submit," likely referring to US trade policies, to further sow discord within Western alliances. TASS reports Trump's threat of new strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities if they are rebuilt, which RF could use to highlight US "aggression" or "distraction" elsewhere. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from Alex Parker Returns highlights Trump's claim that Democrats linked his name to the Epstein list, directly targeting US internal political divisions. Dva mayora (RF source) discussing "Poland forgot about Abrams repair" might be a propaganda effort aimed at sowing doubt about Western military equipment maintenance capabilities, and potentially reducing willingness to provide further support. Operatsiya Z (citing Rus Vesna) propagates that Reuters and Bloomberg claim Trump's $750bn US-EU energy export agreement is unrealistic, aiming to undermine US economic influence and sow discord between the US and EU. Colonelcassad reports German car manufacturers losing €10bn due to Trump's duties, directly highlighting negative economic impacts in Europe from US policies. Дневник Десантника (RF source) shows a video of Donald Trump stating he is "no longer interested in talking" with the Russian President, which RF will use to frame US diplomacy as erratic or highlight a perceived US shift. TASS reports Medvedev's statement warning Trump that Russia is "not Israel or Iran" and that "ultimatums are a step towards war," demonstrating a firm and aggressive diplomatic posture. Operatsiya Z (RF source) amplifies Medvedev's warning to Trump, reinforcing RF's assertive stance. Voin DV (RF source) reports on Germany's plan to purchase Tomahawk cruise missiles and Typhon launchers from the USA, which RF will frame as Western militarization and a threat. Rybar (RF source) uses an image "Europe plows, America drives" to create a narrative of European subservience to the US. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from STERNENKO and Kotsnews highlights Medvedev's threat of war with the US over Trump's 10-12 day deadline for Putin, marking a direct and aggressive diplomatic escalation from RF. New intelligence from Рыбарь provides an infographic image "They are bad again," which is likely aimed at further demonizing external actors and creating a sense of "us vs. them" with regard to the West. New intelligence from Два майора and Рыбарь reports "Bad Maduro" songs from the White House, referring to US attempts to influence Venezuelan politics, indicating RF's intent to monitor and comment on US foreign policy. New intelligence from TASS reports a civilian was injured due to a UA drone attack on a car in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, aligning with RF intent to portray UA as targeting civilians. New intelligence from ASTRA reports a military commissariat inspector in Bryansk Oblast persuaded a man to marry her and go to the "SVO," where he was killed. This highlights potential coercive recruitment tactics. New intelligence from RBC-Ukraine reports Trump claiming credit for the ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, which RF will amplify to demonstrate his influence on global affairs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Операция Z reports Wall Street Journal states Trump did not give a clear answer on measures against Russia if it doesn't end hostilities by mid-August. RF will use this to highlight perceived Western indecision and promote their own strength. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Rybar posts "Results for July 28," indicating continued efforts to summarize and disseminate information from an RF perspective, likely for propaganda purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: MoD Russia reports on operational information as of 22:00 28.07.25, influencing international perceptions of RF military operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports Russian stocks plummeted after Trump's statement about reducing the deadline for Putin, indicating financial market volatility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Zelenskiy / Official references a statement by President Trump and reiterates that Russia is actively trying to undermine peace efforts and prolong the war. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: TASS reports RF Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko stated NATO countries are militarizing at an accelerated pace, indicating RF's continued efforts to portray NATO as aggressive and divided. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UA Weakness/Forced Mobilization: Disseminate narratives about UA forces losing combat effectiveness (61st Mech Bde fleeing Sumy), forced mobilization tactics (captured soldiers' claims), and alleged UA war crimes. Propaganda depicting UA forces as comprised of "mercenaries" (Paraguayan mercenary sentencing). RF also attempting to highlight internal dissent within UA military (e.g., fining soldier for "defeatist conversations"). Russian sources label UA gas purchase from Azerbaijan as "Gas Circus" to portray desperation. Kotsnews is pushing the narrative that Ukraine is "trading the remains of its heroes" – a highly inflammatory and likely false accusation intended to dehumanize UA. Bloomberg columnist Mark Champion (TASS source) states NABU reform "exposed the scale of corruption in Ukraine... in the defense sector and highest echelons of power." Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claims "the West gets something in Ukraine that cannot be bought for money," implying a negative exploitation of Ukraine. "Филолог в засаде" discusses "fighting with meat" and high losses, framing it as a UA problem, indicating a deliberate propaganda effort to demoralize UA forces and the public regarding their casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF channels are claiming that fallen/missing soldiers are being declared AWOL. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad is promoting a narrative of widespread corruption within the UA 10th Mountain Assault Brigade, including claims of soldiers paying for rear positions and high battalion losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews video of a Russian soldier engaging a drone and shouting "Ya 300!" is likely used to demonstrate Russian soldiers' "bravery" and "resilience" in the face of UA drone attacks, despite the implied casualty. This could also be a subtle attempt to normalize or downplay the real impact of UA drone attacks if framed as isolated incidents. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from Дневник Десантника features a video of a presumably captured UA soldier discussing "crimes against civilians" in Kursk Oblast, a direct RF propaganda effort to discredit UA and its forces. MoD Russia video shows a soldier speaking about providing first aid to both Russian and Ukrainian wounded, claiming UA commanders abandon their wounded. This is a propaganda effort to discredit Ukrainian command and portray RF as humane. Podubny (RF source) reports Ukraine is suspending its obligations under the CFE Treaty, which RF will use to frame Ukraine as escalating the conflict or acting irresponsibly. Бутусов ПЛЮС (UA source) shows a Russian soldier with a horse about to be hit by a drone, indicating RF's exploitation of animals, which RF will attempt to downplay or portray as a necessity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна (UA source) features a political scientist discussing whether Zelenskyy and Putin can meet in the near future, indicating RF's continued push for a narrative of a potential diplomatic resolution on their terms. New intelligence from Alex Parker Returns reports a video of a woman dancing in a provocative manner, captioned "Wake Up," which may be used as a moralistic propaganda effort against perceived Western decadence or to distract from other issues. New intelligence from Alex Parker Returns (RF source) includes a caption "This guy was one of those who just loves life" on an image of a destroyed vehicle, suggesting an attempt to humanize RF losses or portray UA actions negatively. New intelligence from Воин DV claims the UA 25th Brigade is losing shelters in Sukhiy Yar, used to demonstrate UA tactical setbacks. New intelligence from ASTRA reports a military commissariat inspector in Bryansk Oblast persuaded a man to marry her and go to the "SVO," where he was killed. This highlights potential coercive recruitment tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo messages captioned "Brazilians in GUR service," which RF will use to portray UA forces as reliant on foreign mercenaries or "agents." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: TASS reports the EC sent a warning to Kyiv about the possible full suspension of financial aid if anti-corruption bodies are pressured, used by RF to highlight UA's internal issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Religious Themes: WarGonzo using "Day of the Baptism of Rus'" as a propaganda tool to connect the conflict with historical and religious narratives, likely to rally support, exemplified by Patriarch Kirill's procession. Colonelcassad shows humanitarian aid including religious items for churches, reinforcing this theme. Rybar also posted a photo message on "Day of the Baptism of Rus'," aligning with this narrative. Janus Putkonen's "Angels' Alley" video further reinforces the use of religious/memorial themes to evoke sympathy for Donbas. Operatsiya Z (RF source) provides photo messages related to the restoration of the Kazan Mother of God Monastery, reinforcing religious and cultural narratives. New intelligence from Два майора comments "How our pastors went in a crowd," likely referring to the religious procession, indicating RF attempts to promote religious unity around the war effort. New intelligence from Шеф Hayabusa shows a video of a religious service in a church with commentary discussing a bombing and bells, suggesting RF's attempts to intertwine religious events with military actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Stability: Frame domestic incidents like the Astrakhan building collapse as isolated, non-combat related events to maintain an image of internal stability (though the "no gas leak" contradicts, and a criminal case is now opened). Attempting to control public narratives, evidenced by forced apologies for perceived disrespect (e.g., girl dancing on memorial, Chechen teenager detention for Kadyrov portrait). Роскомнадзор's statement on WhatsApp/VPN rumors aims to control information flow. "Два майора" uses "humorous" content (cats, vehicle malfunction video) to potentially normalize or downplay internal issues and maintain morale. TASS reports mobile internet restrictions in Tyumen Oblast for security. TASS reports on corruption within MVD but frames it as law enforcement action, reinforcing state control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Crimean bridge traffic restored used to show resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Fighterbomber suggests the Aeroflot hack is due to low IT salaries, a low-level internal critique used to explain a major incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) News from Moscow reporting a water pipe rupture is a civilian issue, unlikely to be weaponized, but could be spun as an example of ongoing internal "challenges" if civilian infrastructure issues become more widespread. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) TASS reports the dismantling of a large public sculpture in Moscow is a civilian event with no clear military propaganda link, but demonstrates normal state functions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) News from Moscow reports citizens can opt out of mass mailings, possibly a measure to address public annoyance or privacy concerns, supporting a narrative of responsiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS about Slutsky's comments on abortion bans indicates RF's focus on domestic social issues to maintain internal stability and appeal to certain demographics. News from Новости Москвы shows a Russian billiards club opening, a civilian event. "Два майора" shows a video promoting an energy drink with military slogans, likely intended to link military themes with a positive, recreational lifestyle for public consumption. New intelligence from ASTRA confirms "Red & White" stores in Vologda Oblast stopped selling alcohol. New intelligence from Новости Москвы confirms the release of a trailer for "Avatar: Fire and Ash," which is unrelated to military operations. New intelligence from Два майора continues the "Soldier's Daily Life" rubric with photos of cats, intended to humanize soldiers and normalize the conflict. The RF Governor of Astrakhan declaring a state of emergency will aim to reassure the local populace. ASTRA reports mobile internet in Udmurtia has been disconnected for three days with authorities stating it will be "indefinite," which could lead to public frustration and distrust. TASS reports RZD (Russian Railways) completed construction of a new single-track railway overpass in Kursk Oblast in record time after a sabotage incident, likely used to boost public confidence in state capabilities. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports the evacuation of the "Zvezdny" shopping center in Moscow, which RF will portray as effective internal security. Gleb Nikitin (RF official) reports on industrial development and infrastructure in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, likely to show stability and progress. TASS reports that Aeroflot cancelled 7 pairs of flights for July 29, indicating ongoing disruptions that RF will attempt to manage and downplay to the public. TASS reports Medvedev's statement warning Trump that Russia is "not Israel or Iran" and that "ultimatums are a step towards war," which will resonate with a nationalist segment of the Russian public. Kotsnews (RF source) provides imagery for "Evening Bell", a likely propaganda segment focused on military-related topics that will shape public opinion. Военкор Котенок (RF source) provides photo messages with the caption "Main news Today", indicating a curated news summary, likely for propaganda purposes. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) and Север.Реалии (RF-critical source) reporting on the ban of migrants from taxi work in St. Petersburg, could trigger mixed reactions, but will be framed by state media as a positive step for internal order. TASS and ASTRA report the Russian government has decided to close 20 checkpoints on the border with Ukraine starting August 1, which will impact cross-border travel and potentially public perception of the border situation. TASS reports two killed in knife attack in London, which RF may use to highlight internal instability in Western countries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Zhukovsky Airport's website access has been restored after restrictions, which will be leveraged to demonstrate state competence in managing cyber incidents. New intelligence from Colonelcassad provides an image captioned "Right Decision" displaying text about the closure of border checkpoints, intended to present this action as a positive and justified government decision. New intelligence from Gleb Nikitin shows photos of restored historical quarters in Nizhny Novgorod, likely promoting stability and cultural preservation efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad reports three young men detained for damaging the "Blockade Tram" monument in St. Petersburg. RF will use this to highlight internal law enforcement and control over public spaces, possibly linking it to broader 'anti-Russian' acts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: ASTRA reports migrants banned from working as taxi drivers in St. Petersburg, indicating a domestic policy change that RF will frame as improving internal stability or security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns video shows the Director of Sevastopol Aquarium-Museum confirming the removal and reinstallation of Kadyrov's portrait due to an "extremist" act, demonstrating RF's active control over public symbols and historical narratives, linking the current conflict (SVO) to WWII to enhance legitimacy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports another system failure in Russia, with residents complaining about inability to process documents, contributing to public discontent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: НгП раZVедка posts photo messages about "time for fun" and childhood games, possibly to distract from military news or for morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: ASTRA reports that "Русская община" (Russian Community) disrupted an economic lecture by libertarians about Argentina in Rostov, indicating a move to control internal ideological discourse. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns reports a proposal for a state-controlled VPN in Russia with Gosuslugi authorization, which will be framed as a measure to enhance internal information security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Prisoner Exchange: Peskov claims Ukraine has not responded to RF proposal for working groups on prisoner exchange, aiming to shift blame for lack of progress. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Illicit Activity: RF sources highlight looting by Chechen elements in Gorlovka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Social Policy: "Старше Эдды" promotes "Budget places in colleges - for Russian guys!" which is a nationalist message signaling preferential treatment for ethnic Russians in education, potentially as a social incentive or to exclude minorities. Военкор Котенок reports on European countries considering housing prisoners abroad, which could be spun by RF as a sign of Western weakness/crisis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Testing NATO: Tsaplienko (UA source) reports a Russian "Gerbera" UAV flight over Vilnius, attributing it as a deliberate act to "test NATO's resilience." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - regarding the UA interpretation of the event) New intelligence from TASS reports Estonian MFA summoned Russian Charge d'Affaires to protest alleged border violation by RF border vessel, which RF will deny or downplay, but signals continued probing of NATO borders. TASS reports USA delivered nuclear weapons to Britain on an aircraft with transponders activated to signal Russia, which could be framed by RF as an direct act of Western aggression or intimidation. ASTRA provides a photo message with the caption "USA delivered nuclear weapons to Britain for the first first time since 2008." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports US delivered nuclear weapons to Britain on an aircraft with transponders demonstratively turned on, citing Bloomberg, reinforcing the deliberate signalling aspect. Операция Z (RF source) confirms Estonia's claim of a Russian border vessel violating maritime borders, which RF will downplay but indicates continued probing of NATO sea borders. Basurin о главном (RF source) reports an incident with an unidentified drone over Vilnius, confirming the event from an RF perspective and highlighting its impact on regional stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from Alex Parker Returns provides video claiming a "Gerbera" reconnaissance drone flew over Vilnius from Belarus, and frames it positively as "nothing unusual," minimizing the provocative nature. New intelligence from Операция Z and Дневник Десантника confirms the US delivery of nuclear weapons to Britain with transponders active, framed as a signal to Russia, which RF is interpreting as a direct message or provocation. New intelligence from РБК-Україна reports an RF border vessel violated Estonia's maritime border. New intelligence from STERNENKO confirms US delivery of nuclear weapons to UK. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: TASS reports RF Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko stated NATO countries are militarizing at an accelerated pace, using this narrative to justify RF's actions and portray NATO as an aggressor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Economic Strain: TASS reports the Russian government has restricted gasoline exports for oil product manufacturers until August 31, which could be framed by external sources as an indicator of economic strain or supply issues. TASS reports new restrictions on hiring foreign citizens for taxi and carsharing services in St. Petersburg, which could be spun as economic protectionism or a response to perceived labor issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports Russian stocks plummeted after Trump's statement about reducing the deadline for Putin, indicating financial market volatility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: TASS reports the EC sent a warning to Kyiv about the possible full suspension of financial aid if anti-corruption bodies are pressured, which RF will use to highlight Ukraine's financial dependency and internal issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Narrative: Kotsnews (RF source) uses a song poll to boost morale for military sailors, aiming to reinforce positive sentiment for the Russian Navy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad reports a Ukrainian sea mine washed ashore on Odesa beach after a storm. This could be used by RF to depict the Black Sea as dangerous due to UA actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukrainian Public: Sustained resilience despite daily attacks and casualties. Public anxiety is high due to continued air threats and civilian infrastructure damage, particularly in Kyiv and Khmelnytska. Strong public support for the military, reflected in ongoing crowdfunding and public engagement. Internal political friction evident in anti-corruption protests. The liberation of Kindrativka will boost morale. Deep emotional resonance with the Olenivka commemoration, reinforcing resolve and sense of injustice and commitment to POWs. The Coordination Staff for POWs meeting highlights continued public engagement on the issue of prisoners and also features "People of the Future" project for children in Rivne region, indicating efforts to support families and future generations. Zelenskiy's announcement of over 1000 returned POWs will significantly boost public morale. The General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine using imagery of military dogs for morale is indicative of this. Zaporizhzhia OVA video on veteran rehabilitation aims to boost morale. Shef Hayabusa's public criticism ("Why don't you act?") indicates some public impatience or frustration with perceived inaction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Ukrainian channels expressing hope that Trump's "deadline" will be the last. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Public sentiment will likely view Trump's "not interested in talking with Putin" statements positively, while still hoping for a definitive end to the war as implied by the "deadline." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine shows a large public gathering in Kyiv commemorating Olenivka, with military presence and "FREE AZOV" banners, indicating continued strong public support for military and POW issues. Zelenskiy / Official confirms a significant meeting at the Coordination Staff for POWs to discuss rehabilitation, reintegration, psychological support, and new approaches to exchange lists for returned POWs, indicating high-level commitment to personnel welfare. New intelligence from КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) confirms a key meeting at the Coordination Staff for POWs, including returned POWs themselves, to address medical, rehabilitation, psychological, and exchange list issues, showing proactive efforts to support personnel, which will be received positively by the public and military families. STERNENKO shares a video which appears to be drone footage showing a military engagement, including an explosion, focus on personnel in a trench, and a call for donations, suggesting active combat and fundraising for UA forces. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports expert analysis on the liberation of Kindrativka and the new phase of ZSU, which will be a morale booster. Олександр Вілкул (UA official) provides a briefing summarizing the situation, reinforcing morale and public support. Mykolaivskiy Vanok (UA source) reports the launch of "Club MikVisti", a local media project, aiming to boost local morale and provide information. Mykolaivskiy Vanok (UA source) reports drone footage showing a successful engagement with RF soldiers, which will be received positively by the public as a sign of successful operations. New intelligence from Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" features a Ukrainian soldier making a direct appeal for donations for FPV drone components, highlighting strong public engagement and support for the military, and the morale boost from seeing direct combat results. New intelligence from РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy's statement on Trump's new deadline for Putin, indicating continued public interest in diplomatic developments. New intelligence from Zelenskiy / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 highlights that Zelenskyy signed a law strengthening the SBU, which will likely boost public confidence in national security. New intelligence from Оперативний ЗСУ confirms 7 of 18 IRIS-T SLM systems from Germany have been delivered, which will boost public confidence in Western support. New intelligence from Оперативний ЗСУ reports the Ukrainian government appointed Tetiana Berezhna as acting Minister of Culture and Strategic Communications, indicating continued government function and support for morale. New intelligence from RBC-Ukraine reports people swimming in Odesa during Shahed attacks, highlighting civilian vulnerability, which could negatively impact morale if tragedy occurs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports on operational information as of 22:00 28.07.25, providing consistent updates for military and public awareness, contributing to morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy signed a law on payments to families of military personnel killed in captivity, which will provide a morale boost to military families. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Zelenskiy / Official thanks soldiers and provides updates on drone neutralization, Air Force, and SSU, strengthening national confidence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 calls for donations to close a fundraising drive for "Night Sheikhs," implying strong public support for UA drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian Public: Largely shaped by state media, accepting official narratives. Localized discontent due to economic issues (Aeroflot IT crash, communal service debts, mobile internet restrictions, inability to process documents) and potential security concerns from UAV attacks on Russian territory (Leningrad Oblast casualties, Volgograd railway damage, Belgorod air alerts, military blogger warnings of "massive attacks", Rostov fire/explosions). The Astrakhan building collapse, while not combat-related, contributes to a perception of internal issues, and the fact it was dilapidated since 2019 might fuel public frustration. Efforts to boost morale through Navy Day celebrations and recruitment campaigns. Internal contradictions on information control (WhatsApp/VPNs) may cause confusion. Kadyrov's foundation's aid to servicemen's families indicates a need to address and manage public sentiment regarding military losses. The use of veterans with criminal records in patriotic education may spark debate internally. Public compliance with authorities even for minor offenses (e.g., forced apologies for dancing on memorial, Chechen teenager detention for Kadyrov portrait) suggests a climate of fear/control. Reports of crimes by military personnel (Tambov) could erode public trust. The fining of a serviceman for "defeatist conversations" indicates a suppression of negative sentiment within the military. "Два майора" posting photos of cats as "Soldier's Daily Life" could be a low-effort attempt at morale-boosting or normalization, suggesting some awareness of morale needs. The "Humor from the Border" video with a malfunctioning military vehicle, while framed humorously, may also indicate an attempt to manage perceptions of logistical challenges. News of water shortages in occupied Donetsk, even if externally reported, could impact perceptions of RF governance. Дневник Десантника's request for drones and Starlink suggests some frontline personnel feel undersupplied. "Филолог в засаде" discussing "fighting with meat" and high losses suggests internal military discussion or public concern about human cost. Colonelcassad's Sevastopol air raid test video indicates public needs for safety information in Crimea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Reports of deceased/missing soldiers being declared AWOL could fuel significant public and military discontent if widely known. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews video of a Russian soldier engaging a drone and shouting "Ya 300!" indicates that drone warfare is having a direct, stressful impact on frontline RF personnel, potentially affecting morale. The "Ya 300!" (I am a casualty) implies vulnerability and may be interpreted differently by internal vs. external audiences. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Public sentiment will react to Trump's conflicting statements; some will view his "disappointment" as a setback for RF, others will cling to his past positive remarks or hopes for trade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" shows Laima Vaikule calling for arms supplies to Ukraine, and is labeled "enemy," indicating RF attempts to shape public perception of pro-Ukrainian figures. ASTRA's photo message of "MIROVIĆ MEDIA" is a promotional piece and has no direct military or morale impact. STERNENKO about a fire at a military training center in Kstovo, Russia, could negatively impact public morale if widely known, as it suggests vulnerabilities deep within RF territory. Fighterbomber shows open public disinterest in Aeroflot's cyber issues, possibly indicating a low level of concern for non-military state assets among some segments of the Russian public. "Два майора" showcasing an energy drink with military slogans suggests an attempt to appeal to a younger, more patriotic demographic and intertwine military themes with civilian consumerism, indicating a long-term strategy for public engagement. New intelligence from ASTRA confirms "Red & White" stores in Vologda Oblast stopped selling alcohol. New intelligence from Новости Москвы confirms the release of a trailer for "Avatar: Fire and Ash," which is unrelated to military operations. New intelligence from Два майора continues the "Soldier's Daily Life" rubric with photos of cats, intended to humanize soldiers and normalize the conflict. The RF Governor of Astrakhan declaring a state of emergency will aim to reassure the local populace. ASTRA reports mobile internet in Udmurtia has been disconnected for three days with authorities stating it will be "indefinite," which could lead to public frustration and distrust. TASS reports RZD (Russian Railways) completed construction of a new single-track railway overpass in Kursk Oblast in record time after a sabotage incident, likely used to boost public confidence in state capabilities. НгП раZVедка (RF source) reports the evacuation of the "Zvezdny" shopping center in Moscow, which RF will portray as effective internal security. Gleb Nikitin (RF official) reports on industrial development and infrastructure in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, likely to show stability and progress. TASS reports that Aeroflot cancelled 7 pairs of flights for July 29, indicating ongoing disruptions that RF will attempt to manage and downplay to the public. TASS reports Medvedev's statement warning Trump that Russia is "not Israel or Iran" and that "ultimatums are a step towards war," which will resonate with a nationalist segment of the Russian public. Kotsnews (RF source) provides imagery for "Evening Bell", a likely propaganda segment focused on military-related topics that will shape public opinion. Военкор Котенок (RF source) provides photo messages with the caption "Main news Today", indicating a curated news summary, likely for propaganda purposes. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) and Север.Реалии (RF-critical source) reporting on the ban of migrants from taxi work in St. Petersburg, could trigger mixed reactions, but will be framed by state media as a positive step for internal order. TASS and ASTRA report the Russian government has decided to close 20 checkpoints on the border with Ukraine starting August 1, which will impact cross-border travel and potentially public perception of the border situation. TASS reports two killed in knife attack in London, which RF may use to highlight internal instability in Western countries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Zhukovsky Airport's website access has been restored after restrictions, which will be leveraged to demonstrate state competence in managing cyber incidents. New intelligence from Colonelcassad provides an image captioned "Right Decision" displaying text about the closure of border checkpoints, intended to present this action as a positive and justified government decision. New intelligence from Gleb Nikitin shows photos of restored historical quarters in Nizhny Novgorod, likely promoting stability and cultural preservation efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad reports three young men detained for damaging the "Blockade Tram" monument in St. Petersburg, indicating internal dissent and the state's response, potentially influencing public perception of internal stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns video shows the Director of Sevastopol Aquarium-Museum confirming the removal and reinstallation of Kadyrov's portrait due to an "extremist" act, reflecting RF's active attempts to shape public and military morale by connecting the current conflict to historical heroism and suppressing opposition to symbolic figures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports Russian stocks plummeted after Trump's statement about reducing the deadline for Putin, which will negatively impact public confidence in the economy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports another system failure in Russia, with residents complaining about inability to process documents, contributing to public discontent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: ASTRA reports that "Русская община" (Russian Community) disrupted an economic lecture by libertarians about Argentina in Rostov, indicating internal control affecting public discourse. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns reports a proposal for a state-controlled VPN in Russia with Gosuslugi authorization, which will impact internal internet users. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• External Public Sentiment: Influenced by competing narratives from RF (Western division, alleged IDF war crimes) and UA (RF atrocities, resilience, need for support). Poland strengthening NATO Eastern Shield indicates continued Western deterrence posture. US troop redeployment discussions (Politico) could be interpreted by allies as a weakening of commitment, requiring diplomatic reassurance. International awareness of the Olenivka tragedy will shape views on Russian conduct. Ukrainian protests in Italy (Caserta) aim to keep the plight of POWs visible internationally. News of Cambodia-Thailand ceasefire mediated by Malaysia (РБК-Україна) highlights non-Western diplomatic efforts that Russia might seek to leverage or emulate. Donald Trump's statements about being "very disappointed with Putin" and cutting his 50-day deadline indicate a potential shift in US political rhetoric that could impact international diplomatic calculations. TASS reports US sanctions bill stalled in Senate due to Trump, impacting international perceptions of US unity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Trump's new 10-12 day deadline and secondary sanctions threat are now a significant point of international discussion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Rybar's "immediate assessment" of Cambodia-Thailand border escalation signals a new area of international focus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports Trump's threat of new strikes on Iran, signaling a potential new area of international tension and US engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The alleged Russian UAV flight over Vilnius will trigger strong negative reactions from NATO allies and likely lead to calls for increased deterrence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from TASS reports Estonian MFA summoned Russian Charge d'Affaires to protest alleged border violation by RF border vessel, indicating a direct international incident involving a NATO member. New intelligence from ТАСС confirms Russian President Putin spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, indicating broader geopolitical engagement beyond the Ukraine conflict. TASS reports the USA delivered nuclear weapons to Britain on an aircraft with transponders activated to signal Russia, which has significant international implications and could raise nuclear proliferation concerns. ASTRA provides a photo message with the caption "USA delivered nuclear weapons to Britain for the first first time since 2008." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports US delivered nuclear weapons to Britain on an aircraft with transponders demonstratively turned on, citing Bloomberg, reinforcing the deliberate signalling aspect. Операция Z (RF source) confirms Estonia's claim of a Russian border vessel violating maritime borders, which will be viewed negatively by NATO allies. Дневник Десантника (RF source) shows a video of Donald Trump stating he is "no longer interested in talking" with the Russian President, which is a significant international diplomatic development. Voin DV (RF source) reports on Germany's plan to purchase Tomahawk cruise missiles and Typhon launchers from the USA, which is a significant development in Western military capabilities and will draw international attention. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the discovery of fragments of a military helicopter, Eurocopter EC-145, during a search operation in Kazakhstan, a non-combat event that may still draw international attention from a safety/aviation perspective. TASS and ASTRA report that Houthis evacuated at least 10 crew members, including a Russian citizen, from the sunken vessel "Eternity C." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from STERNENKO and Kotsnews highlights Medvedev's threat of war with the US over Trump's 10-12 day deadline for Putin, indicating a significant international diplomatic escalation. New intelligence from Alex Parker Returns provides video claiming a "Gerbera" reconnaissance drone flew over Vilnius from Belarus, which, if confirmed, will have significant international implications for NATO. New intelligence from РБК-Україна reports on a train accident in Germany with five Ukrainians among passengers. New intelligence from Два майора and Рыбарь reports "Bad Maduro" songs from the White House, which will be used by RF to influence international perception of US foreign policy in Latin America. New intelligence from РБК-Україна reports RF border vessel violated Estonia's maritime border, which will cause negative external sentiment. New intelligence from STERNENKO confirms US delivery of nuclear weapons to UK, which will be a major international news story. New intelligence from TASS reports two killed, two injured in knife attack in London, potentially diverting international attention. New intelligence from RBC-Ukraine reports people swimming in Odesa during Shahed attacks, raising international concerns for civilian safety. New intelligence from RBC-Ukraine reports Trump claiming credit for the ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, demonstrating the impact of US political narratives on international events. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Операция Z reports Wall Street Journal states Trump did not give a clear answer on measures against Russia if it doesn't end hostilities by mid-August. This will create international uncertainty. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Rybar posts "Results for July 28," indicating a summary of events for an international audience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: MoD Russia reports on operational information as of 22:00 28.07.25, influencing international perceptions of RF military operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad reports Iran's Foreign Minister stating that Iran will respond in an unhideable manner to repeated US/Israel aggression, which will impact international sentiment towards regional stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: TASS reports RF Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko stated NATO countries are militarizing at an accelerated pace, influencing international perceptions of NATO's role. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Ukraine: Continued military aid from the US, Germany, Lithuania. Diplomatic pressure from France on Russia (Macron's statement). Suspension of CFE Treaty obligations. EU aid frozen due to anti-corruption concerns. Development of defense industrial partnerships (Bell Helicopters). New agreement for Azerbaijani gas import. International efforts to highlight Russian war crimes (Olenivka commemoration). Zelenskiy's announcement of over 1000 returned POWs via Istanbul exchanges highlights an ongoing diplomatic channel and its effectiveness. Coordination Staff for POWs held an expanded meeting with President Zelenskyy to discuss POW issues, reinforcing international engagement on this humanitarian issue. German government providing aid to Kharkiv communities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Ukraine suspended CFE Treaty obligations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Prime Minister Shmyhal discussed defense coordination with the USA in preparation for a new "Ramstein" meeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Erdogan's (Turkey) statements about establishing a "peace table" for Ukraine indicate continued mediation efforts by a key regional player. The Coordination Staff for POWs meeting confirms a high-level commitment to personnel welfare. The General Prosecutor's Office of Ukraine regarding corruption charges against 13 officials in Khmelnytska Oblast will demonstrate Ukraine's commitment to anti-corruption reforms, which is crucial for continued international financial and political support. New intelligence from РБК-Україна confirms Zelenskyy appointed Svitlana Zalishchuk as Ambassador to Sweden, demonstrating continued diplomatic engagement and efforts to strengthen bilateral ties. New intelligence from Операция Z (citing Russian Spring) confirms Ukraine suspended CFE Treaty obligations, which has international implications and will be discussed by partners. New intelligence from КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) highlights a high-level meeting on POW welfare, further reinforcing Ukraine's commitment to its international obligations and humanitarian efforts. New intelligence from Офіс Генерального прокурора reports new facts of budget embezzlement and abuse of power in Bukovyna, causing almost 23 million UAH in losses, with nine officials notified of suspicion. This reinforces anti-corruption efforts vital for international trust. RBC-Ukraine reports on the strategic significance of Azerbaijan gas for Ukraine, detailing the benefits of a new route. RBC-Ukraine reports on Trump's new US-EU trade agreement, which may have implications for Ukraine's economic ties. STERNENKO (UA source) asks about a previously seen interview, indicating continued information sharing within UA media to support the war effort. New intelligence from РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy's statement on Trump's new deadline for Putin, highlighting Ukraine's active engagement with US diplomatic rhetoric. New intelligence from Оперативний ЗСУ confirms 7 of 18 IRIS-T SLM systems from Germany have been delivered. New intelligence from Оперативний ЗСУ reports the Ukrainian government appointed Tetiana Berezhna as acting Minister of Culture and Strategic Communications, indicating continued government function and focus on strategic communications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Ukraine has received 7 IRIS-T air defense systems from Germany, with 11 more expected, demonstrating continued Western military support and diplomatic success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports Ukraine received first batch of Patria APCs from Latvia, indicating continued international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Zelenskiy / Official discusses recent conversations with President Macron of France regarding Ukraine's funding needs for drones and a separate conversation with the President of Estonia, thanking them for their support and principled stance on European integration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy signed a law on payments to families of military personnel killed in captivity, providing critical social support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: TASS reports the EC sent a warning to Kyiv about the possible full suspension of financial aid if anti-corruption bodies are pressured, indicating international support is conditional. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Continued international isolation from Western nations. Deepening of non-Western alliances, particularly with North Korea (direct flight established) and upcoming Putin visit to China. Leverage of internal security incidents (Crocus City Hall, alleged GUR agents) to influence international perceptions and justify actions. Attempts to highlight US involvement in other conflicts (Cambodia-Thailand). Ongoing engagement with Belarus (Putin-Lukashenka call). Lavrov's public statements framing the conflict as Russia against "the entire West" reinforce their isolationist stance. TASS reports on Austrian ex-FM Knaisl's statement about Russia's right to prevent Austria from joining NATO, indicating diplomatic messaging to challenge Western alliances. Peskov rejects UA proposed working groups for prisoner exchange. Colonelcassad shared news of Cambodia-Thailand peace talks in Malaysia, likely aiming to highlight non-Western diplomatic efforts or shift international focus. TASS reports Trump's statement on shortening the 50-day deadline for Russia-US agreements on Ukraine, which RF will leverage to demonstrate perceived US flexibility or shift in stance. TASS also reports RF request to OPCW to investigate UA use of prohibited weapons, indicating continued diplomatic efforts to accuse UA of war crimes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Valentina Matviyenko, Chairwoman of the Russian Federation Council, reportedly flew to Europe (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники), indicating ongoing, albeit perhaps limited, high-level diplomatic engagements or visits despite sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports US sanctions bill stalled in Senate due to Trump, which RF will highlight as a sign of US political disunity. TASS reports Karapetyan's defense appealing to Prosecutor General, highlighting domestic legal processes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Durov (Telegram co-founder) re-interrogated in Paris, likely a diplomatic/legal development, not military. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Trump's new 10-12 day deadline and threat of secondary sanctions is a major point of discussion in RF media, seen as an opportunity for resolution on RF terms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad includes an Iranian intelligence statement regarding a "quiet battle with intelligence NATO in a 12-day imposed war," which might be an attempt to show RF aligning with other non-Western powers against NATO or justifying their own actions as defensive. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump's threat to strike Iranian nuclear facilities if they rebuild, which Russia could use to highlight US "aggression" or "distraction" elsewhere. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Rybar reports on "Taliban in London," which Russia could use to highlight Western engagement with controversial groups. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns highlighting Trump's public statement about his failure to negotiate with Putin could be a setback for RF's diplomatic narrative, as it suggests a key Western figure is less amenable to engagement. New intelligence from ТАСС confirms Putin spoke by phone with Netanyahu, indicating Russia's continued diplomatic engagement and attempts to broaden its international relationships. New intelligence from TASS reports Estonian MFA summoned Russian Charge d'Affaires to protest alleged border violation by RF border vessel, which RF will deny but marks a new diplomatic incident with a NATO member. TASS reports USA delivered nuclear weapons to Britain on an aircraft with transponders activated to signal Russia, which could be framed as a US strategic move, impacting RF diplomatic considerations. TASS reports the Russian government has restricted gasoline exports until August 31, which could be a domestic policy measure with international economic implications. Gleb Nikitin (RF official) reports discussing road network development and maintenance in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast with the Russian Minister of Transport, indicating continued internal diplomatic/administrative functions. Дневник Десантника (RF source) shows a video of Donald Trump stating he is "no longer interested in talking" with the Russian President, which is a significant diplomatic development that RF will need to address. Операция Z (RF source) confirms Estonia's claim of a Russian border vessel violating maritime borders, indicating continued RF probing of NATO sea borders and potential for further diplomatic incidents. TASS reports Medvedev's statement warning Trump that Russia is "not Israel or Iran" and that "ultimatums are a step towards war," demonstrating aggressive diplomatic posturing. Operatsiya Z (RF source) amplifies Medvedev's warning to Trump, reinforcing RF's assertive diplomatic stance. РБК-Україна (UA source) reports on an expert discussion concerning the possibility of a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, which RF will leverage as a sign of potential diplomatic avenues. РБК-Україна (UA source) features a speaker discussing military cooperation with North Korea, indicating RF's intent to deepen military-technical collaboration. TASS and ASTRA report the Russian government has decided to close 20 checkpoints on the border with Ukraine starting August 1, a significant diplomatic/security action. TASS and ASTRA report on Houthis evacuating crew members, including a Russian, from the sunken vessel "Eternity C." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from STERNENKO and Kotsnews highlights Medvedev's threat of war with the US over Trump's 10-12 day deadline for Putin, marking a direct and aggressive diplomatic escalation from RF. New intelligence from Alex Parker Returns provides video claiming a "Gerbera" reconnaissance drone flew over Vilnius from Belarus, which, if confirmed as a deliberate action, represents a new level of direct diplomatic/military pressure on NATO. New intelligence from РБК-Україна reports on a train accident in Germany with five Ukrainians among passengers. New intelligence from Два майора and Рыбарь reports "Bad Maduro" songs from the White House, referring to US attempts to influence Venezuelan politics, indicating RF's engagement in information warfare about US foreign policy in Venezuela. New intelligence from РБК-Україна reports RF border vessel violated Estonia's maritime border, leading to diplomatic protest. New intelligence from STERNENKO confirms US delivery of nuclear weapons to UK, which will be a major international news story. New intelligence from TASS reports two killed, two injured in knife attack in London, potentially diverting international attention. New intelligence from RBC-Ukraine reports Trump claiming credit for the ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, indicating RF's attempt to leverage US political figures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Операция Z reports Wall Street Journal states Trump did not give a clear answer on measures against Russia if it doesn't end hostilities by mid-August. This will influence international diplomatic calculations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Rybar posts "Results for July 28," indicating a summary of events for an international audience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: MoD Russia reports on operational information as of 22:00 28.07.25, used for international communication on military matters. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports Russian stocks plummeted after Trump's statement about reducing the deadline for Putin, indicating diplomatic impact on economic stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна reports the head of Russia's Federation Council (Matviyenko) arrived in Switzerland, with Ukraine's MFA reminding her that her place is in The Hague. This highlights international pressure on RF officials. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns reports on Pavel Durov's interrogation in Paris, confirming RF capability to monitor international legal processes involving prominent Russian figures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad reports Iran's Foreign Minister stating that Iran will respond in an unhideable manner to repeated US/Israel aggression, indicating RF's diplomatic alignment and messaging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: TASS reports RF Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko stated NATO countries are militarizing at an accelerated pace, indicating RF's diplomatic messaging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: ASTRA reports that "Русская община" (Russian Community) disrupted an economic lecture by libertarians about Argentina in Rostov, indicating internal diplomatic efforts to control perceived threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• International: Houthi declaration of a new, more intense phase of naval warfare targeting Israel-linked vessels will exacerbate global shipping disruptions and potentially divert Western attention and resources. Malaysian PM's statement on Cambodia-Thailand ceasefire indicates regional diplomatic activity. The demilitarization of "Big Clay N4" in Moscow (Новости Москвы) is a domestic event with no international impact. Donald Trump's statements about being "very disappointed with Putin" and cutting his 50-day deadline indicate a potential shift in US political rhetoric that could impact international diplomatic calculations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) US and EU have reportedly suspended their trade war, potentially easing some Western economic tensions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Rybar's "immediate assessment" of Cambodia-Thailand border escalation signals a new area of international focus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports Trump's threat of new strikes on Iran, signaling a potential new area of international tension and US engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The reported Russian UAV flight over Vilnius, if confirmed, would trigger an immediate and strong international diplomatic and military response from NATO. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from TASS reports Estonian MFA summoned Russian Charge d'Affaires to protest alleged border violation by RF border vessel, indicating a direct international incident involving a NATO member. New intelligence from ТАСС confirms Putin spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, indicating broader geopolitical engagement beyond the Ukraine conflict. TASS reports the USA delivered nuclear weapons to Britain on an aircraft with transponders activated to signal Russia, which has significant international implications and could raise nuclear proliferation concerns. ASTRA provides a photo message with the caption "USA delivered nuclear weapons to Britain for the first first time since 2008." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UA source) reports US delivered nuclear weapons to Britain on an aircraft with transponders demonstratively turned on, citing Bloomberg, reinforcing the deliberate signalling aspect. Операция Z (RF source) confirms Estonia's claim of a Russian border vessel violating maritime borders, which will be viewed negatively by NATO allies. Дневник Десантника (RF source) shows a video of Donald Trump stating he is "no longer interested in talking" with the Russian President, which is a significant international diplomatic development. Voin DV (RF source) reports on Germany's plan to purchase Tomahawk cruise missiles and Typhon launchers from the USA, which is a significant development in Western military capabilities and will draw international attention. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the discovery of fragments of a military helicopter, Eurocopter EC-145, during a search operation in Kazakhstan, a non-combat event that may still draw international attention from a safety/aviation perspective. TASS and ASTRA report that Houthis evacuated at least 10 crew members, including a Russian citizen, from the sunken vessel "Eternity C." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New intelligence from STERNENKO and Kotsnews highlights Medvedev's threat of war with the US over Trump's 10-12 day deadline for Putin, indicating a significant international diplomatic escalation. New intelligence from Alex Parker Returns provides video claiming a "Gerbera" reconnaissance drone flew over Vilnius from Belarus, which, if confirmed, will have significant international implications for NATO. New intelligence from РБК-Україна reports on a train accident in Germany with five Ukrainians among passengers. New intelligence from Два майора and Рыбарь reports "Bad Maduro" songs from the White House, which will be used by RF to influence international perception of US foreign policy in Latin America. New intelligence from РБК-Україна reports RF border vessel violated Estonia's maritime border, which will cause negative external sentiment. New intelligence from STERNENKO confirms US delivery of nuclear weapons to UK, which will be a major international news story. New intelligence from TASS reports two killed, two injured in knife attack in London, potentially diverting international attention. New intelligence from RBC-Ukraine reports people swimming in Odesa during Shahed attacks, raising international concerns for civilian safety. New intelligence from RBC-Ukraine reports Trump claiming credit for the ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, demonstrating the impact of US political narratives on international events. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Операция Z reports Wall Street Journal states Trump did not give a clear answer on measures against Russia if it doesn't end hostilities by mid-August. This will create international uncertainty. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Rybar posts "Results for July 28," indicating a summary of events for an international audience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: MoD Russia reports on operational information as of 22:00 28.07.25, influencing international perceptions of RF military operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad reports Iran's Foreign Minister stating that Iran will respond in an unhideable manner to repeated US/Israel aggression, which impacts global stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (24-48 HOURS)

• MOST LIKELY ENEMY COURSES OF ACTION (MLCOA): (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

  1. Sustained Nationwide Aerial Campaign: RF will continue massed missile and Shahed UAV attacks targeting civilian infrastructure and military airfields across Ukraine, with a high probability of further strikes on Starokostiantyniv and Western/Central Oblasts, aimed at exhausting UA air defenses and disrupting logistics. Kropyvnytskyi and Zaporizhzhia (including Khortytsia Island area) remain high-risk targets for reconnaissance and subsequent strikes. RF will continue to target UA defense industrial base, as evidenced by the Shostka strike and RF MoD Kinzhal claims. RF military bloggers may continue to pre-emptively warn of UA attacks on RF territory. Expect continued ballistic missile threats from northern directions into central oblasts, and confirmed re-escalation of the threat to Pryluky and potentially Kyiv from Chernihiv Oblast. Expect continued KAB strikes on Sumy, Donetsk (including Kramatorsk), and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Expect continued group UAV attacks on Kharkiv Oblast from Belgorod. RF will continue modernizing Shaheds and developing jet drones. The reduction in Kalibr attacks from the Black Sea suggests a temporary shift in naval strike capabilities, but other air-launched missiles will maintain pressure. Expect continued targeting of civilian vehicles and residential areas near the front, as seen in Velyki Prokhody, Kharkiv, and damage to civilian structures in Nikopol district, Dnipropetrovsk. Expect RF to quickly report and spin any alleged UA attacks on civilian services, such as the reported UAV attack on rescuers in Enerhodar and the drone attack on a car in Shebekino. RF will leverage drone footage (e.g., Colonelcassad's "Donbas" video) to showcase strike capabilities. RF will likely continue to deny or downplay civilian impact from their strikes. RF will continue to attempt high-value strikes like the alleged attack on Pryluky airbase targeting a US "Black Hawk". Expect continued naval targeting, as evidenced by the strike on the naval vessel/pontoon bridge, and RF may leverage incidents like the sea mine washed ashore in Odesa for propaganda. RF will continue to issue public warnings regarding safety of critical information systems.
  2. Increased Pressure on Donetsk Axis & Kharkiv: RF ground forces will maintain high-intensity offensive operations on the Pokrovsk axis, attempting to consolidate recent gains around Dimitrov (Myrnohrad) and Rodinskoye, and achieve further penetration towards key defensive strongpoints. Intelligence suggests RF DRGs have entered Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and have fire control over a road to Rodinskoye, indicating continued aggressive intent for operational encirclement. Expect continued use of TOS-2 systems for suppression and attempts to cut logistics routes around Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk. RF will likely sustain attacks on the other Eastern axes (Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka) to fix UA forces and identify weaknesses. RF is specifically breaking through to Siversk, indicating a new axis of intensified ground pressure. This is further supported by claims of Boykivka and Belhiyka liberation by the "Tsentr Group" and UA withdrawal. Heavy assaults will continue on the Kamenskoye sector (Plavni, Stepnohirsk). WarGonzo's highlighting of Grad artillery suggests continued large-scale fire support. Colonelcassad reports assault groups advancing in Kharkiv Oblast near Melovoye, indicating continued ground pressure in that area. Kadyrov's "Zapad-AKHMAT" battalion will continue localized, aggressive assaults in urban areas like Vovchansk. RF UAVs will continue to interdict UA logistics, particularly near Oleksandrohrad. Tactical engagements such as the one described by Voin DV (14th Guards Spetsnaz destroying a UA armored vehicle) and by Tsaplienko (425th Separate Assault Regiment ambush) and Colonelcassad (37th Motorized Rifle Brigade destroying Humvee) will continue. RF will continue intense ground pressure on Zaporizhzhia Oblast with high strike volumes. UA ground units will continue clearing operations in contested settlements. WarGonzo's internal debate on tank obsolescence suggests RF will continue to adapt their armored tactics. RF will leverage volunteer support (e.g., masseur) to bolster frontline morale. RF will continue to use mobile elements (e.g., motorcycles, horses) for tactical movement and casualty evacuation. MoD Russia will continue to use narratives of humane treatment of UA wounded for propaganda. RF will attempt to retake recently liberated areas like Kindrativka in Sumy Oblast and consolidate claimed gains in Dnipropetropetsky Oblast like Maliivka. RF will continue to concentrate forces as observed near Kurakhovo-Alekseevka. RF forces will continue to engage UA drones with small arms fire. RF will continue offensive operations in Sumy Oblast, as indicated by the claimed expansion of control near Myropillia. RF will continue to attempt offensive operations against areas like Tendrovska Spit in Kherson Oblast. RF will continue personnel motivational efforts through official channels. RF will continue to leverage successes like the claimed loss of UA 25th Brigade shelters in Sukhiy Yar. RF will continue to use drone footage of destroyed UA infrastructure for propaganda (e.g., Tokarevka). RF will continue to exert pressure in the Chasiv Yar-Shevchenko direction.
  3. Cross-Border Probing and Interdiction (Sumy/Kharkiv/Chernihiv/Bryansk): Continued, limited cross-border probing and localized ground assaults in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts to fix UA forces and prevent redeployment. Expect increased reconnaissance UAV activity over border oblasts, specifically targeting Romny, Konotop, Southern Sumy, and Central/Southern Chernihiv. RF will seek to destabilize border regions with persistent attacks and sabotage attempts, as evidenced by the MoD Russia video and the drone alert in Kharkiv, and reports from Bryansk. "Дневник Десантника" claims of VKS strikes in Kharkiv region suggest continued targeting of AFU positions. "STERNENKO" reports suggest continued UA cross-border drone operations into Kursk. RF will likely continue to claim civilian casualties from UA drone/shelling attacks in border regions, exemplified by the Oleshky report and the Shebekino incident. Colonelcassad drone footage indicates continued RF strike operations in these border regions. RF will likely attempt to downplay or deflect blame regarding the fire at the Kstovo military training center, describing it as a minor incident (e.g., "burning garage"). RF will use propaganda videos of captured UA soldiers in border regions to reinforce narratives of UA "crimes." RF will continue rapid repair of damaged logistical infrastructure in border regions, as demonstrated by the Kursk railway overpass. RF will maintain attempts to retake Kindrativka. RF recruitment efforts, even coercive ones, in border regions (e.g., Bryansk) will continue. Continued UA drone activity in Rostov Oblast can be expected. RF will continue military training and preparation in the Sumy direction, as indicated by video footage.
  4. Information Warfare Escalation & Adaptive Messaging: RF will intensify disinformation campaigns leveraging the Aeroflot cyber incident (including the CEO's password lapse and the public's perceived disinterest in Aeroflot's issues, and continued flight cancellations, and the restored Zhukovsky Airport website, and broader threats to critical information, and the new system failure preventing document processing), civilian casualties (e.g., Oleshky neurosurgeon, 800+ strikes in Zaporizhzhia, Nikopol district damage, Derhachivs'ka attack, Velyki Prokhody civilian car attack, Enerhodar rescuers attack, Shebekino drone attack, Odesa swimming incidents, Odesa sea mine), internal Western political divisions (Trump's new 10-12 day deadline, French PM Bayrou's comments, US sanctions bill, US-EU trade deal, Trump's contradictory statements on Putin/Russia, which RF will spin as "cynicism and duplicity," and Trump's Epstein claims, Trump's impact on German auto industry, Poland's Abrams repair, Germany's Tomahawk purchase, Rybar's "Europe plows, America drives" narrative), and their narrative of fighting "the entire West" to sow discord and undermine support for Ukraine. Expect continued propaganda regarding alleged UA "terrorist acts" within Russia and public ceremonies (e.g., Donbas victims, "Angels' Alley" memorial, religious events including Kazan Mother of God Monastery restoration, Moscow religious processions with accompanying commentary, Kadyrov's portrait in Sevastopol, St. Petersburg monument vandalism, recreational activities). RF will likely continue to shift blame for stalled prisoner exchanges and disseminate highly inflammatory narratives such as "Ukraine trading remains of its heroes" and forced mobilization, and claims of deceased/missing soldiers being declared AWOL. They will also likely amplify Western criticisms of Ukraine's internal governance (e.g., corruption, illegal sand extraction, land privatization, including the Khmelnytska corruption case and Bukovyna embezzlement) and point to reported "grey zones" in Ukraine as a sign of progress, and highlight corruption within UA military leadership. "Старше Эдды" and "Операция Z" will continue to push nationalist and anti-Western narratives, adapting to Trump's evolving rhetoric, potentially emphasizing his past positive remarks on Russia while downplaying his recent critical comments. MoD Russia will continue daily updates highlighting RF "progress" and humane treatment of UA wounded. RF media will likely attribute water shortages in occupied Donetsk to Ukraine. RF will push the narrative of UA using prohibited weapons via OPCW. Propaganda related to "fighting with meat" will continue to target UA morale. Trump's "deadline" will be a central theme in RF information operations, but RF will also attempt to co-opt any of Trump's statements for their benefit. RF will likely amplify the Iranian intelligence statement to reinforce a perception of a global anti-Western alliance. RF will continue efforts to delegitimize pro-Ukrainian public figures like Laima Vaikule. Rybar will continue to release propaganda videos featuring captured UA soldiers. RF will promote domestic social policies like abortion bans to appeal to internal audiences. RF will attempt to subtly promote military themes in civilian culture, as seen with the energy drink. RF will leverage any internal political developments in Ukraine (e.g., Ambassador appointments, CFE treaty suspension, increasing national debt, SBU strengthening law, IRIS-T deliveries, appointment of acting Minister of Culture, Patria APCs) to suit their narrative. RF will continue to use propaganda like "Spy with a Chatbot" to promote internal vigilance. RF will highlight claimed UA territorial losses such as Maliivka and Sukhiy Yar. RF will use the evacuation of the "Zvezdny" shopping center in Moscow for internal security propaganda. RF will leverage Medvedev's stern warning to Trump as a sign of strength. RF will continue to produce curated news summaries for internal consumption. RF will continue to promote internal economic and industrial development as a sign of stability (e.g. Nizhny Novgorod historical quarter restoration). Kotsnews will continue naval morale-boosting efforts. RF will frame the St. Petersburg migrant taxi ban as a positive internal security/labor measure. RF will frame the border checkpoint closures as a security measure. RF will manage the narrative around the Houthi evacuation of Russian crew members, likely portraying Russia as a responsible actor. RF will likely continue to use moralistic or distracting content (e.g., woman dancing video) in their propaganda. RF will continue to humanize their losses through selective imagery and captions. RF will continue to portray specific entities negatively through infographics. RF will continue to monitor and comment on US foreign policy in other regions, as seen with Venezuela. RF will continue to attempt to create divisions within NATO (e.g., Estonia border violation). RF will continue to use narratives related to train accidents impacting Ukrainians in Germany for propaganda. RF will use the London knife attack to highlight internal instability in Western countries. RF will leverage Trump's claimed credit for the Cambodia-Thailand ceasefire to emphasize his global influence. RF will leverage Trump's ambiguous stance on ending hostilities as reported by Wall Street Journal to create uncertainty and highlight perceived Western indecision. RF will continue to manage public perception of internal incidents like the St. Petersburg monument vandalism, framing it as controlled law enforcement rather than widespread dissent. RF will continue to use claims of foreign mercenaries (e.g., Brazilians in GUR) to discredit UA forces. RF will continue to issue daily operational updates. RF will continue to monitor and comment on international legal processes involving prominent Russian figures like Pavel Durov. RF will amplify statements from Iran regarding aggression against US/Israel to foster a narrative of a broad anti-Western alliance. RF will continue to highlight NATO militarization as a justification for its actions. RF will continue to suppress internal dissent, as evidenced by the disruption of libertarian lectures in Rostov. RF will tighten internet control through measures like a state-controlled VPN.
  5. Cyber Attacks & Internal Control: Further cyberattacks against Ukrainian critical infrastructure or Russian opposition media/activists are likely, potentially disguised as retaliation for previous incidents or to create disruptions coinciding with kinetic operations, leveraging the Aeroflot incident as a precedent and potentially targeting other aviation/transportation systems. The Russian government will continue to manage the narrative around the Aeroflot incident (e.g., flight cancellations, pricing adjustments, data leak confirmation denials, broader threats to critical information) and likely tighten internal information controls further (e.g., mobile internet restrictions in Tyumen and Udmurtia, Max messenger anti-fraud tech, opting out of mass mailings, addressing inability to process documents). The long recovery time for Aeroflot will be a persistent point of internal friction and external propaganda. RF will continue to conduct internal security arrests related to alleged Ukrainian intelligence (e.g., Krasnodar detentions, St. Petersburg monument vandalism). Civilian infrastructure failures within Russia (e.g., Astrakhan building collapse, Moscow water pipe rupture) will be framed as isolated or non-combat related to maintain an image of stability, with authorities declaring states of emergency as needed. RF will continue to implement temporary local restrictions such as alcohol sales. RF will continue to manage domestic gasoline supply through export restrictions. RF will implement new internal labor controls, such as restrictions on foreign taxi drivers in St. Petersburg, to address internal economic or security concerns. RF will close 20 checkpoints on the Ukrainian border, impacting cross-border travel and logistics. RF will continue to exert legal/diplomatic pressure on individuals perceived as problematic, as seen with Pavel Durov. RF will leverage restored services (e.g., Zhukovsky Airport website) to project competence. RF will likely implement a state-controlled VPN to further restrict internet access. RF will continue to suppress any perceived ideological threats internally, as seen in Rostov.
  6. NATO Probing (Baltic Sea & Airspace): If the reported UAV flight over Vilnius is confirmed, Russia will likely continue similar, low-level probing activities against NATO borders or airspace, seeking to test response times and alliance cohesion without directly escalating to open conflict. This could involve similar UAV flights or other non-kinetic probes, as indicated by the alleged border violation by an RF vessel near Estonia. RF will continue diplomatic engagement with non-Western partners (e.g., Israel) to project international relevance. RF will interpret the US delivery of nuclear weapons to Britain with activated transponders as a direct signal or provocation from the US, and may respond with counter-messaging or further probing. The acquisition of Tomahawks by Germany will be viewed and framed by RF as a significant escalation. RF will maintain ISR activities over the Black Sea, monitoring NATO assets. RF will continue to frame NATO's actions as "militarization" in diplomatic statements.

• MOST DANGEROUS ENEMY COURSES OF ACTION (MDCOA): (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

  1. Breakthrough on Pokrovsk Axis: A rapid and coordinated RF breakthrough on the Pokrovsk axis, involving commitment of significant reserves, leading to the semi-encirclement or capture of Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad, forcing a major UA tactical withdrawal. This would severely impact UA's defensive posture in Donetsk. RF MoD claims of Boykivka and Belhiyka liberation, and UA withdrawal from Boykivka, indicate significant progress and potential for further exploitation, and TASS reports opening path to southern Krasnoarmeysk. The latest intelligence from Colonelcassad (Boris Rozhin) regarding RF forces entering Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and gaining fire control over a key supply road to Rodinskoye, and the prediction of Rodinskoye falling within 1-2 weeks, significantly elevates this MDCOA. The psychological impact of drone warfare on RF frontline troops (e.g., "Ya 300!" report) could also indicate desperation that might lead to risky, aggressive pushes. The claimed surrender of Maliivka in Dnipropetropetsky Oblast could signal a broader RF ground initiative. The claimed loss of UA 25th Brigade shelters in Sukhiy Yar could be a precursor to a larger breakthrough. The updated Rybar map confirms this as a key area of RF offensive concentration.
  2. Targeted Strikes on Critical AD/C2 Assets: RF conducts highly successful precision strikes (e.g., using Kinzhal missiles from MiG-31K) that significantly degrade a key UA air defense battery or C2 node, creating a temporary window for overwhelming air superiority. The repeated targeting of Starokostiantyniv suggests an intent to degrade Western AD assets. The unknown impact locations of some Kinzhals are a concern, as is the RF MoD claim of a Kinzhal strike on a military airfield and ammunition depot. Renewed ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv and Pryluky represent an attempt to hit high-value targets. The reported modernization of Shaheds and switch to jet drones increases the threat to UA air defense. A successful strike on the Shostka ammunition plant is already a setback. The alleged strike on Pryluky airbase targeting a US "Black Hawk" could be a precursor to more aggressive targeting of foreign-supplied military assets. The targeting of naval vessels/pontoon bridges could indicate an attempt to degrade UA logistical or riverine capabilities. The delivery of 7 IRIS-T systems makes these systems a priority target for RF, and a successful strike on one could significantly degrade UA AD capabilities in a sector.
  3. Escalated Hybrid Operations: RF orchestrates significant sabotage or cyberattacks on critical Ukrainian civilian infrastructure (e.g., power grid, communication networks, water supply in Mykolaiv, power in Donetsk) coinciding with major military offensives, causing widespread disruption and diverting UA resources. The Aeroflot incident and FSB arrests indicate heightened RF focus on hybrid threats, especially against transportation and communication networks. Mobile internet restrictions could precede such attacks. The "grey zone" in Dnipropetropetsky Oblast could be a precursor to such a coordinated hybrid attack. This could include targeted attacks on key UA administrative or government buildings (as seen in Kharkiv Oblast) and civilian structures (Nikopol district, Velyki Prokhody, Enerhodar). The intense strikes on Zaporizhzhia Oblast could precede a combined arms offensive supported by such hybrid actions. The alleged deliberate attack on the Kstovo military training center could also be viewed as part of an escalating hybrid campaign by UA. The closure of 20 checkpoints on the Ukrainian border could be a precursor to a more aggressive hybrid approach towards the border. This could also involve more aggressive recruitment tactics, potentially coercive, as seen in Bryansk Oblast. RF will continue using information operations to sow distrust (e.g., London knife attack). The St. Petersburg monument vandalism and arrests, and the narrative management around Kadyrov's portrait in Sevastopol, indicate RF's increasing focus on internal hybrid threats and ideological control, which could be expanded to more provocative acts. The power outages in Donetsk following missile/drone strikes suggest immediate hybrid effects. The proposed state-controlled VPN indicates a significant escalation in RF's information control and hybrid warfare capabilities against its own population.
  4. Major Cross-Border Offensive (Northern Front): While the main effort is currently Donetsk, a sudden large-scale ground offensive in Northern Kharkiv/Sumy/Chernihiv Oblasts, akin to the May 2024 operation, could occur if RF assesses UA reserves are sufficiently committed elsewhere. The 9 repelled assaults in Kursk/Sumy and the continued drone/FAB activity suggest RF maintaining pressure and potentially probing for weaknesses. The provision of EW to Kharkiv defenders indicates an active threat. Colonelcassad's report of "assault groups advancing in forests near Melovoye" in Kharkiv raises the possibility of larger ground incursions. Kadyrov's forces operating in Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast) indicates RF intention to hold and push. The attempt to retake Kindrativka is a localized precursor to such a larger offensive. The claimed expansion of control near Myropillia in Sumy Oblast could be a preparatory step for a larger offensive. The report of RF "breaking through to Siversk" indicates a new, active ground offensive axis, which could be expanded into a major push if successful. RF military training in the Sumy direction indicates preparation for such an offensive.
  5. Direct Military Provocation Against NATO: Russia conducts a deliberate, unambiguous military provocation against a NATO member state (e.g., a confirmed, deliberate military UAV or aircraft incursion deeper into NATO airspace, or an active measure on NATO territory), testing Article 5 of the NATO treaty. The alleged "Gerbera" UAV flight over Vilnius and the alleged border violation by an RF vessel near Estonia are precursors to this, and such an act, if confirmed as intentional military probing, would constitute an MDCOA for NATO, requiring an immediate and decisive alliance response. The US delivery of nuclear weapons to Britain with activated transponders increases the risk of miscalculation or an escalated response from RF to perceived threats. Medvedev's stern warning to Trump could also be a precursor to more aggressive RF actions if they perceive a continued "ultimatum" from the US. Iran's threat to respond to US/Israel aggression could be leveraged by RF to create a broader anti-Western front, increasing geopolitical instability.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

• Intelligence Gaps:
  • Full extent of damage and operational impact of the Aeroflot cyberattack, and a confirmed, independent attribution, and any follow-on cyber activity impacting other critical Russian infrastructure. Specific details on the restoration process of Aeroflot systems and verification of expert recovery time estimates. Verification of Fighterbomber's claim regarding low IT salaries causing the hack. Independent verification of the Aeroflot CEO's password lapse. Verification of the new system failure preventing document processing in Russia. Details and implications of the proposed state-controlled VPN in Russia. Details and implications of the disruption of the libertarian lecture in Rostov.
  • Specific RF unit identifications and strength estimates for forces engaged on the Pokrovsk axis, particularly the readiness and deployment of potential second-echelon forces, especially in the Myrnohrad/Dimitrov area, and independent verification of claimed liberated settlements (Boykivka, Belhiyka) and UA withdrawal from Boykivka. Independent verification of RF claims regarding entry into Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and fire control over the Rodinskoye road. Verification of the "grey zone" reported in Dnipropetropetsky Oblast and its extent. Independent verification of RF claims regarding the surrender of Maliivka in Dnipropetropetsky Oblast. Independent verification of forces concentration and activity reported near Kurakhovo-Alekseevka. Independent verification of RF claims of breakthrough to Siversk. Verification of RF ground forces activity near Chasiv Yar and Shevchenko.
  • Impact of RF EW systems on UA drone capabilities on various axes, and effectiveness of UA counter-EW in these environments, particularly with the new EW systems provided to Kharkiv and in light of RF drone enhancements, including fiber-optic drones. Verification of RF MoD claims of "Rubikon" drones destroying UA drones. Verification of the "trend" of fiber-optic FPV drones. Verification of the operational impact of RF's "bell ringing" jamming.
  • Detailed assessment of RF personnel morale and desertion rates, particularly from penal battalions and newly mobilized forces, and the effectiveness of their "patriotic education" programs involving convicted veterans. Verification of internal crime reports involving military personnel in RF, and the actual impact of "defeatist conversations" penalties. Verification of the reported soldier suicide on the Pokrovsk axis. Insights into the "fighting with meat" discussion. Verification of reports that fallen/missing soldiers are being declared AWOL. Verification of the context and full implications of the "Ya 300!" report from Kotsnews and Старише Эдды. Verification of the claimed Russian soldier suicide on the Pokrovsk axis. Verification of the "captured UA soldier" video regarding civilian crimes in Kursk Oblast; specifically, the veracity of the claims and whether the individual is indeed UA military. Verification of the use of horses by RF forces in Donetsk Oblast. Verification of the claims of 4,687 RF losses in July reported by Mykolaivskiy Vanok. Verification of the status and intent of Russian servicemen speaking in the Zona SVO video. Verification of the Bryansk Oblast military commissariat inspector recruitment claim and its broader implications. Verification of the presence and intent of "Brazilians in GUR service" as claimed by RF. Independent verification of the purpose and impact of the BM-21 Grad MLRS unit highlighted by Два майора. Verification of the contents and purpose of the "Paratrooper brotherhood, family!" video from Дневник Десантника. Details of RF training in Sumy direction, including unit IDs and intensity.
  • Specific locations and types of RF strongholds targeted by TOS-2 systems, and the impact of the latest series of guided aerial bomb strikes. Confirmation of ODAB-1500 and FAB-500 strikes by VKS. Confirmation of "Geranium" strike on Khortytsia Island. Confirmation of KAB impacts in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Confirmation of KAB impacts in Sumy Oblast. Confirmation of KAB impacts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Independent verification of the strike on Pryluky airbase targeting a US "Black Hawk".
  • Detailed assessment of the damage to the "Zvezda" ammunition plant in Shostka and its impact on UA ammunition production capacity.
  • Precise impact locations and damage assessment for any unaccounted-for Kinzhal missiles, and independent verification of RF MoD claims on military airfield/ammunition depot strikes. Confirmation of ballistic missile impact in Kyiv and Pryluky.
  • Full details and operational impact of the exposed illicit arms trafficking ring by the Prosecutor General's Office/SBU.
  • Independent verification of the Astrakhan building collapse cause, given the conflicting official statements regarding a gas leak and the previous "dilapidated" status.
  • The specific units and purpose of the military personnel involved in the Moscow religious procession.
  • The true nature and intent behind "Два майора"s "humorous" and cat-related content and its intended effect on troop/public morale, and the "time for fun" content by НгП раZVедка.
  • Confirmation and specific location of the bridge destruction near Kamyshevakha by RF drone operators.
  • Detailed information on the severity and scale of the water shortage in occupied Donetsk and its direct causes, and the full extent of the Mykolaiv water cut. Impact of power outages in Donetsk.
  • Full implications of the mobile internet restriction in Tyumen Oblast, beyond stated "security purposes." Extent and reason for mobile internet shutdown in Udmurtia.
  • Operational status and deployment timeline of the new Ukrainian FAB-250 capable drone.
  • Purpose and outcome of Valentina Matviyenko's reported flight to Europe and the Swiss forum visit.
  • Details of the "Provocation in Sretensky Monastery" (Rybar) and its significance.
  • Further details on the specific nature and source of the German aid to Kharkiv communities.
  • Verification of the alleged "arrival" in Kyiv after the ballistic missile threat.
  • Impact and reach of new RF narratives regarding Trump's "deadline" for Ukraine and his evolving rhetoric on Putin/Russia, particularly the ambiguity noted by Wall Street Journal.
  • Verification of RF claims of corruption within the UA 10th Mountain Assault Brigade.
  • Assessment of renewed Cambodia-Thailand border escalation and its potential impact on regional dynamics or international attention. Verification of ceasefire effectiveness on Cambodia-Thailand border.
  • CRITICAL GAP: Independent verification of the alleged Russian "Gerbera" UAV flight over Vilnius (Lithuania), including UAV type, flight path, and intent, and whether it was a deliberate military provocation or an accidental/test flight. Verify the intent and accuracy of Alex Parker Returns's video and accompanying caption regarding the "Gerbera" drone over Vilnius. Verification of the alleged border violation by RF vessel near Estonia.
  • Specific details and combat impact of the 800+ RF strikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • Confirmation and details of the UA ground operation shown by Оперативний ЗСУ and Бутусов ПЛЮС.
  • CRITICAL GAP: Independent verification of the fire at the 210th Military Training Center in Kstovo, Russia, including the extent of damage, the cause, and the operational impact on RF military training capabilities (especially sapper, pontoon, camouflage, and EOD specialists). Verification of RF attempts to downplay it.
  • Details and implications of the "Два майора" video showing an energy drink with military slogans; understand its target audience and intended effect on public perception/recruitment.
  • Further information on the 46th Airmobile Brigade's recent drone operations, including specific targets, assessed damage, and tactical impact.
  • Specific targets, assessed damage, and tactical impact of the 44th Artillery Brigade's destruction of enemy howitzers.
  • Analysis of the WarGonzo debate on tank obsolescence: is this an internal critique signaling a shift in RF armor doctrine or simply a public discussion?
  • Details of the Khmelnytska Oblast corruption case, including the roles of the 13 officials and the specific nature of the financial losses/undeclared assets.
  • Details of the Bukovyna budget embezzlement case, including the roles of the 9 officials and the specific nature of losses.
  • Confirmation and details of any damage to civilian infrastructure in Nikopol district, Dnipropetropetsky Oblast.
  • Verification of the alleged US delivery of nuclear weapons to Britain with activated transponders, including the type of aircraft, and official statements from US/UK. Assessment of RF interpretation of this event.
  • Impact of RF gasoline export restrictions on domestic and military fuel supply.
  • Detailed assessment of the "lack of missile carriers" for Kalibrs in the Black Sea and its implications for RF naval strike capabilities.
  • Further details on the 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" ambush near Pokrovsk.
  • Clarification on the nature of the "Voin DV" "Deadly Flower" video/photo content and its tactical implications.
  • Details on the "Akhmat" special forces UAV training and its operational output.
  • Specifics of the "Evacuation of the Wounded" video from Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki, including location and unit.
  • Impact of Gleb Nikitin's discussion on Nizhny Novgorod Oblast road networks on military logistics or internal Russian stability.
  • Further context on the "Poland forgot about Abrams repair" narrative.
  • Details on the Trump-US-EU energy export agreement claims.
  • Verification of the evacuation of the "Zvezdny" shopping center in Moscow: cause and full extent of any incident.
  • Impact of RF attempts to retake Kindrativka (Sumy Oblast).
  • Further analysis of the expert assessment on ZSU's "new phase" after Kindrativka's liberation (РБК-Україна).
  • Verification of Germany's procurement of Tomahawk missiles and Typhon launchers.
  • Verification of the increase in Ukraine's national