Archived operational intelligence briefing
TIME: 280737Z JUL 25
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
1.4. Previous Operational Picture Recap (From 13 MAY 2024 Report)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations
Increased EW Effectiveness: The most significant adaptation is the marked increase in the effectiveness and deployment of EW systems, particularly around key offensive targets like Chasiv Yar, directly impacting UA drone operations. This suggests a concerted effort to counter Ukraine's drone advantage.
FAB-3000 M-54 UMPK Deployment: The operational deployment of the FAB-3000 in Lyptsi indicates Russia's commitment to using increasingly destructive glide bombs to level fortified positions.
Re-evaluation of Large-Scale Armored Assaults: The decisive defeat of the Vuhledar armored assault and the repelled Siversk/unspecified eastern mechanized assault (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video) likely reinforces a re-evaluation of such large-scale, high-risk operations. This may lead to a temporary reduction in these tactics, potentially favoring more dispersed infantry attacks supported by heavy fire, although large mechanized attacks still occur as seen in the 54th Mechanized Brigade video. The Воин DV video showing a destroyed Ukrainian column may be used as counter-narrative of RF success. Alex Parker Returns' commentary on reduced heavy artillery use in urban assaults (Stepnohirsk) indicates a deliberate tactical adaptation to reduce collateral damage imagery.
Unit Reorganization (Naval Infantry): The reported plan to convert naval infantry brigades into divisions suggests a long-term strategic adaptation to increase the combat power and doctrinal flexibility of these units, potentially for future amphibious or coastal operations.
Increased Internal Information Control: RF is actively seeking to control the narrative by issuing warnings against filming military incidents, indicating an adaptation to public information dissemination. Старше Эдды's dismissal of Madyar's claim as "PR" also fits this. Basurin's radio broadcast and Воин DV's morale video are examples of continued internal messaging efforts. RF's immediate narrative around the Yablonovka shelling (Два майора) shows an adaptive and quick response in information warfare. The conflicting statements on blocking WhatsApp and unregistered VPNs effective August 1st (Colonelcassad and Оперативний ЗСУ claiming block, TASS denying) indicate a potential internal struggle or deliberate disinformation around this significant internal control measure.
Kupiansk Logistics Targeting: RF's claimed disruption of logistics in Kupiansk suggests an adaptive focus on interdicting UA supply lines, likely using precision strikes and possibly enhanced reconnaissance. DeepState confirms RF attempts to enter Kupiansk from the northwest.
Targeting Civilian Transport: The strike on a bus in Sumy Oblast indicates a willingness to directly target civilian transport to inflict casualties and instill fear.
Use of Motorcycles in Assaults: The confirmed use of motorcycles by small RF assault groups in Zaporizhzhia (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) indicates an adaptation for rapid infiltration and maneuver in certain terrain, potentially to bypass obstacles or overwhelm forward positions quickly. This tactic is now explicitly mentioned by Alex Parker Returns as part of assaults in Stepnohirsk, Kupiansk, and Sumy.
Aggressive Drone Attacks on RF Interior: The large-scale and casualty-inflicting drone attack on Leningrad Oblast (Операция Z, TASS) demonstrates an escalation in UA's deep strike capabilities against RF territory. Continued drone strikes in Belgorod (ASTRA) also show continued reach. STERNENKO's video of pontoon bridge destruction highlights UA's long-range drone/precision strike capability.
Expansion of Drone Production: RF's reported expansion of its drone production facility in Alabuga signifies a strategic adaptation to scale up combat drone manufacturing, likely to sustain or increase the tempo of UAV strikes. Alex Parker Returns posts satellite imagery confirming this expansion (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Anti-Drone Helicopters: The appearance of an anti-drone Ka-52 helicopter armed with "Igla-S" missiles (Colonelcassad) indicates RF's tactical adaptation to counter UA's increasing drone threat.
Robotic Ground Systems: The reported observation of "Shturm" heavy assault robotic complexes at Uralvagonzavod test site (Старше Эдды) indicates RF's long-term tactical adaptation towards integrating uncrewed ground vehicles into offensive operations. Операция Z posts video of the "Shturm" robotic complex working, confirming its existence and testing (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Escalated Aerial Strike Readiness: The reported readiness of multiple strategic aviation assets (Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, Tu-160, MiG-31K) indicates a tactical adaptation towards large-scale, deep strikes across Ukraine, increasing pressure on Ukrainian air defenses. Inbound Shahed drones towards Kyiv (Colonelcassad, РБК-Україна) and other regions (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) confirms continued adaptation for widespread aerial attacks. Confirmed Tu-95MS strategic aviation take-offs (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO) indicate an immediate escalation of deep strike capability (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Additional strike UAV threats reported for Mykolaiv Oblasts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). НгП раZVедка's inflammatory post suggests continued focus on Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z reports RF strategic aviation (Tu-95/22) is en route to Ukraine, with dozens of strike drones also inbound (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This confirms widespread, simultaneous aerial threats for tonight. New threat of strike UAVs for Pavlohradskyi and Samarivskyi districts, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports pre-launch maneuvers of two Tu-160 strategic bombers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF milblogger states intent to use strategics after degrading UA AD. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Logistics and Sustainment Status
Ammunition & Fuel: Still assessed as sufficient to support current operational tempo, including high rates of artillery and GAB employment. However, the confirmed damage to railway infrastructure in Volgograd due to UAV debris could impact long-term rail logistics if sustained, especially for the southern axes. TASS and ASTRA confirm restoration of train movement in Volgograd, indicating rapid repair capabilities or minor impact. Colonelcassad's aid collection for "Kezzo Diesel" (fuel) confirms ongoing, localized logistical needs. Alex Parker Returns' claim of reduced heavy artillery use in urban assaults might indicate a change in tactics, but not necessarily a shortage, as it's linked to an "image" concern. STERNENKO's claim of pontoon bridge destruction is a new indicator of UA efforts to disrupt RF logistics.
Personnel: Continued reliance on recruitment from correctional facilities (penal battalions, as highlighted by ASTRA's court report) and high-paying contracts (military recruitment ads - Dvа майора video, Воин DV video) suggests ongoing challenges in traditional recruitment and voluntary enlistment. This points to a reliance on quantity over quality for front-line personnel. The medical video showing skull trauma (Colonelcassad) highlights the ongoing severity of casualties. Igor Artamonov's video on social services for heroes indicates an emphasis on post-service care, likely to encourage recruitment and maintain morale. Colonelcassad's aid collections for "assault troops" in DNR reinforce the continued importance of ground offensive capabilities. Рыбарь's post on declining birth rates points to a long-term demographic challenge for RF. Colonelcassad's interview with a soldier highlights efforts to address morale directly. The video from Zheleznogorsk showing internal violence involving an SVO participant suggests potential for increased social unrest and discontent stemming from military personnel. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing a Russian soldier committing suicide on the Pokrovsk direction indicates extreme psychological stress and likely high casualties among RF personnel. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video confirms RF 7th Guards Air Assault Division personnel operating in Zaporizhzhia direction and requiring drones/Starlink, implying supply chain issues for critical equipment. Colonelcassad's videos of captured Ukrainian soldiers, including personal details, are used to undermine morale and showcase RF success in interdicting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' propaganda post "А кому сейчас легко?" ("Who has it easy now?") indicates an acknowledgement of domestic hardship, potentially to foster resilience or acceptance of current conditions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports on RF military personnel recruitment for service in the Internal Affairs bodies, suggesting efforts to backfill security forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Materiel: The observed destruction of 12-15 armored vehicles near Vuhledar and recent losses in Siversk (118th Mechanized Brigade, 54th Mechanized Brigade) indicates significant localized materiel loss. Overall RF production and stockpiles appear sufficient to replace losses for the current intensity of conflict. Continued appeals for drones by RF units indicate localized deficiencies in specific equipment. Colonelcassad's aid requests for "body armor, helmets, medical supplies" confirm direct materiel needs for frontline personnel. Воин DV video showing a destroyed Ukrainian column is used by RF to showcase UA materiel losses. WarGonzo's discussion on the Russian Navy (Admiral Kuznetsov) indicates continued high-level strategic focus on long-term materiel development. Операция Z's report on Alabuga expansion suggests a concerted effort to increase drone materiel. Старше Эдды's report on "Shturm" robotic complexes indicates investment in future ground combat materiel. Colonelcassad's drone video showing an RF strike resulting in a Ukrainian BMP's ammunition explosion further indicates RF capability to destroy UA materiel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for full identification). UPDATED: Colonelcassad posts drone footage showing a BMP-1TS, identified as Ukrainian, detonating after hitting a mine and catching fire in Razino, DNR. This suggests continued RF focus on attriting UA armored vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) * TASS reports a tank with improvised anti-drone protection (rebar cage) withstood approximately eight hits from UA shells. This suggests RF is investing in and adapting vehicle protection materiel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) * Colonelcassad's videos and photos of the new "Shturm" robotic complex confirm RF's focus on developing and potentially deploying advanced ground materiel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) * UPDATED: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video showing a convoy of Russian KAMAZ water trucks, indicating logistical support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) * UPDATED: Alex Parker Returns posts a video of the Russian Ministry of Defense testing its uncrewed kamikaze boat, with commentary on its potential to terrorize the Ukrainian Black Sea coast. This indicates a new materiel capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) * UPDATED: Два майора posts a photo message on the cost of "Ural" motorcycles, likely a commentary on RF internal procurement or economic issues. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) * UPDATED: Два майора posts a photo message on the cost of "Ural" motorcycles, likely a commentary on RF internal procurement or economic issues. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
We only use optional analytics cookies if you allow them. Necessary cookies stay on for sign-in and site security.
Learn more in our Privacy Policy.
