Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 280600Z JUL 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide threat from RF missile and UAV attacks persists. Guided Aerial Bombs (GABs) remain a significant factor in frontline areas. UAF Air Force reports high interception rates (94%) against RF UAVs. President Zelenskyy emphasized the need for 1000 interceptor drones per day. Total estimated RF personnel losses as of 270404Z JUL 25: +920. Ukrainian Presidential Brigade video indicates continued drone operations for reconnaissance and strike missions. President Zelenskyy approved new National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) sanction decisions. RBC-Ukraine reports Ukraine will receive an unprecedented quantity of AI-powered drone strike kits. STERNENKO reports 1129th Air Defense Regiment (ZRP) shot down two "Gerbera" (likely Shahed variants). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a high probability of combat sorties by strategic aviation (Tu-95/22). Nikolaevskiy Vanek provides an overall update on "mopeds" (Shaheds), indicating continued widespread UAV activity. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports continued liquidation of enemy drones in Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Poltava, and Cherkasy Oblasts. RBC-Ukraine reinforces the Air Force report. Два майора's post about "enemy channels worrying about the night situation in the Ukrainian sky" further confirms ongoing UA drone and missile threats to RF and RF's concern. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports on the operational situation as of 272200Z JUL 25, indicating ongoing combat. Рыбарь provides an "Results of 26-27 July" summary, likely from an RF perspective. MoD Russia also provides "Top News Today", which is likely their daily summary of operations. Ongoing widespread Shahed UAV activity across multiple oblasts, with RF strategic aviation confirmed airborne for potential large-scale missile strikes. UA FPV drone units continue effective operations against RF ground targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "Shahed" UAV activity continues with updates on movement, specifically a new threat for Volyn Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Starokostiantyniv under threat of RF strike UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: Air raid alert declared for Kyiv due to MiG-31K launch (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Full country air raid due to MiG-31K launch. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Fast moving target on Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Fast moving target on Zhytomyr. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Fast moving target on Khmelnytska Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Fast moving target in Kyiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Air raid alerts lifted across multiple oblasts, including Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia, following MiG-31K threat abatement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad posts an enemy-attributed map of night strikes by RF on Ukraine (28.07.2025), indicating RF's perceived success in widespread targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kherson Oblast: RF claims aviation strike on a UAF HQ. GAB launch on Kherson. RF reconnaissance UAVs reported. UAF repelled 5 Russian army assaults yesterday in Kherson direction. RF dropped explosives from a drone on an ambulance crew. A 9-year-old child injured. TASS and Mash on Donbas claim UA drone attack on an ambulance in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ASTRA reports one fatality in Kherson Oblast due to RF shelling. RF milblogger "Mash на Донбассе" claims Ukrainian kamikaze drone attacked a minibus at Nova Mayachka market, resulting in one fatality and five injured; video shows aftermath. Aerial reconnaissance video from Kherson Oblast indicates surveillance activity. Video shows an RF soldier, identified as a recruit with a criminal record, describing his recruitment and participation in combat, including finding dead bodies on an island, indicating the presence of RF penal battalions on this axis. Video depicting the evacuation of deceased individuals on a motorcycle pulling a trailer in a rural area. Colonelcassad is organizing aid collection for reconnaissance units on the Kherson direction, indicating ongoing RF activity and sustainment needs.
  • Colonelcassad indicates that the islands on the Dnieper River near Kherson are a significant threat to the UAF, implying continued RF pressure and successful operations there. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Other Eastern Axes: UAF General Staff reports numerous clashes on Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka directions. RF claims advances near Kolodyazi, Yampolivka, and Dibrova (Lyman), and Holubivka (Kupyansk). Increased RF EW activity observed in Lyman direction. RF forces significantly advanced in Serebryansky forestry and took control of a pioneer camp. UAF 63rd Brigade's drone unit eliminated 23 enemy personnel near Torske. DeepState posts drone footage from 155th Brigade showing a repelled RF assault north of Shevchenko. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports significant RF losses near Siversk. Colonelcassad posts video showing drone operators from 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade and 5th Guards Tank Brigade destroying well-camouflaged enemy targets in Maliyivka. UAF 46th Airmobile Brigade (DShV) drone unit details enemy losses on Pokrovsk direction. RF source claims destruction of Ukrainian "Novator" armored vehicle in Filyi area. Reports on destruction of a Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage group (DRG) near Aleksandrogad. Colonelcassad posts video of "South" group special forces conducting combat operations in Siversk direction, showing a destroyed BMP. UAF 148th Separate Artillery Brigade (OABr) effectively striking RF personnel. "Vostok" group liberated Maliyivka. Daily clashes on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka directions. Video shows dead/injured RF personnel and burning vehicles, indicating a recent engagement and casualties. Thermal footage of a military vehicle struck by ordnance, resulting in explosion and fire. UAF Air Force reports active RF tactical aviation in the eastern direction. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 54th Mechanized Brigade and 81st Airmobile Brigade repelled a mechanized assault on the Siversk direction, inflicting RF losses. Colonelcassad's animated strike scheme video confirms Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, and Odesa as targets for 26-27 July 2025. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posted a video from the 54th Separate Mechanized Brigade showing a large-scale RF mechanized assault repelled, with RF tanks, APCs, MT-LBs, BREMs, and dismounted infantry (motorcyclists) destroyed by artillery and drones. This indicates a significant RF setback and effective UA defense in this unspecified eastern direction, likely a continuation of the Siversk report. Операция Z posted a photo message claiming the Russian Army continues to cut off Kupiansk, advancing from the northwest outskirts. Z Komitet + карта СВО posted maps regarding Redkodub and the Krasnolimansky direction, showing settlements, control lines, fortifications, and terrain elevation. This indicates continued tactical analysis and potential for RF operations in this sector. WarGonzo posted a video showing an excavator working on a riverbed near "r. Krymka," which is relevant to infrastructure maintenance, though it also includes imagery related to the Kursk direction with anti-tank obstacles, blending civilian and military context. STERNENKO posted a video showing a drone strike on a pontoon bridge/crossing point over the Ural river, claiming destruction of the crossing. While the target is identified as "Ural," the video's context and other content from STERNENKO often refer to Ukrainian operations in the East. This implies effective UA targeting of RF logistical infrastructure. DeepState reports RF attempts to enter Kupiansk from the northwest. Оперативний ЗСУ posted an aerial reconnaissance video from "Birds of Madyar" showing an RF soldier attempting to conceal themselves, then engaged, resulting in a fatal outcome. Colonelcassad posts updated maps for Kupyansk and Krasnolimansky directions, showing control zones and RF advances (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Военкор Котенок posts images for Velikomykhailivka direction, likely referring to continued fighting on an eastern axis (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF source). Военкор Котенок posts images for Siversk direction, indicating continued RF focus there (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF source). Z комитет + карта СВО posts historical map, possibly implying current operational context on an eastern axis (CONFIDENCE: LOW). Воин DV video shows artillery of the 1198th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 35th Army Group "Vostok" is destroying enemy strongpoints and fortifications on the South Donetsk direction, with drone footage showing a hit and "1 hit target" text. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for drone footage, MEDIUM for specific unit and target claims). Continued effective UA FPV drone strikes on RF armored vehicles and personnel on Eastern axes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • High-speed missile detected in Southern Chernihiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF tactical aviation active in Eastern direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • TASS (citing Marochko) claims almost 3,900 casualties (killed and wounded) for Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries on the LPR front over the past week. This is an RF claim, likely exaggerated, and lacks independent verification. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
  • UPDATED: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims RF destroyed UA ammunition depots in the Kharkiv area. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim). Рыбарь provides an updated front summary. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). WarGonzo provides updated front summaries for Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Pokrovsk directions, with maps. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: Colonelcassad posts video of the 16th Separate Special Forces Brigade destroying a T-72M tank with a Lancet loitering munition in the Serebryansky forestry area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Zvиздец Мангусту reports that the situation on the Pokrovsk direction is intensely escalating. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Poltava Oblast: Enemy drone fell due to AD work. Reconnaissance UAVs on border of Kharkiv and Poltava. Threat of strike UAVs from northeast. Explosions reported in Kremenchuk area. UAVs detected moving towards Myrhorod, Poltava, and Dykanka. Groups of Shaheds from Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. Damage in Poltava Oblast reported. Poltava TCC and SP was dispersed and relocated after Russian shelling. Colonelcassad's animated strike scheme video confirms Poltava as a target for 26-27 July 2025. PPO is active in Poltava Oblast against enemy UAVs. RBC-Україна reports an earthquake near Poltava, a civilian incident. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports ongoing liquidation of enemy drones in Poltava Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reinforces the Air Force report on drone liquidation.
  • Multiple missiles flying towards Poltava Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ternopil Oblast: Grenade explosion in apartment building resulted in two fatalities.
• Zhytomyr Oblast: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAV threat for Zhytomyr Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • UPDATED: Fast moving target on Zhytomyr. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). NEW: High-speed target on Zhytomyr, indicating renewed threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Vinnytsia Oblast: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAV threat from the east (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). New threat of strike UAVs reported. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • High-speed missile targeting Vinnytsia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kirovohrad Oblast: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAV threat from the east (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kirovohrad Oblast Military Administration confirms enemy drone attack on Kropyvnytskyi. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAV heading for Kropyvnytskyi. Eight UAVs have turned towards Kropyvnytskyi. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Explosions reported in Kropyvnytskyi. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "Mopeds" (Shaheds) have been neutralized near Kropyvnytskyi. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: Fire liquidation continues in Kirovohrad Oblast after night RF attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: RBC-Ukraine posts photo message confirming fire liquidation continues in Kirovohrad Oblast after night RF attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Rivne Oblast: Air raid alert declared due to strike UAV threat continues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). New threat for Rivne City. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Volyn Oblast: Air raid alert declared due to strike UAV threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kyiv Oblast:
  • NEW: Air raid alert for Kyiv triggered by MiG-31K launch. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Fast-moving target on Kyiv detected. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Fast-moving target on Kyiv Oblast detected. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: RBK-Ukraine reports renewed air raid alerts in Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: KMA (Kyiv Military Administration) confirms air raid alert for Kyiv due to MiG-31K launch. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: RBK-Ukraine confirms widespread air raid alert due to MiG-31K. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ confirms nationwide missile danger due to MiG-31K. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Khmelnytska Oblast:
  • NEW: Fast-moving target on Khmelnytska Oblast detected. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: RBK-Ukraine reports renewed explosions in Khmelnytska Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Poland: Poland has scrambled fighter jets due to the missile attack on Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia:
  • Volgograd Oblast: Flight restrictions implemented, later lifted. Reports of explosions and fires confirmed by images and videos. "Операция Z" claims disruption to railway electrical power due to UAV debris. Large fire at oil station confirmed. Ongoing enemy drone attack on Volgograd confirmed. Drone attack on electric substation near railway, with video showing fire. Passenger trains delayed due to UAV attack, with six trains delayed due to power outages at Zhutovo station. Video evidence of "good UAVs" attacking electrical substation. Images and videos confirm damage to electrical substation at Zhutovo station, damaged building, and derailed train. Damage to a service building at Zhutovo station confirmed. STERNENKO posts video/photo messages confirming damage to railway infrastructure in Volgograd Oblast due to drone attacks. TASS reports movement of all delayed trains after UAV debris fall at Zhutovo station in Volgograd Oblast has been restored. Dvа майора confirms the continuation of enemy operations aimed at paralyzing civilian logistics, specifically mentioning the Volgograd incident. ASTRA provides video evidence of the damage to railway infrastructure in Volgograd Oblast, confirming restoration of train movement.
  • Krasnodar Krai: Multiple videos show large explosions and fires near a "Lukoil-Yugnefteprodukt Sochinskaya oil depot." RF MoD claims 39 Ukrainian UAVs shot down. Casualties reported (2 dead, 13 injured). Damage to railway station, injuring train passengers. Armavir airfield reportedly hit.
  • Kursk Oblast: Russian official signed resolution on payments to residents forced to leave homes. Ukrainian SOF engaged Russian forces. One civilian killed by drone attack. UAF repelled 25 RF assaults yesterday. Two Ukrainian UAVs shot down. RF milblogger posts video of elderly man claiming to be victim of Ukrainian looting. "Anvar" unit clearing a buffer zone near Porozok and Seredyna-Buda. UA_REG TEAM destroying an "aquakatcap". Photo and video messages related to Kursk Oblast confirm military activity. Оперативний ЗСУ posted a video claiming a man attacked an "SVO-participant" with a broken bottle in Zheleznogorsk, Kursk Oblast, after the soldier broke his beer bottle. This indicates internal friction and violence involving military personnel.
  • Luhansk (Kremennaya): RF forces significantly advanced in Serebryansky forestry and took control of a pioneer camp on Lake Linevoye.
  • Rostov Oblast (Novocherkassk/Taganrog Area): Multiple explosions reported in suburbs of Taganrog and Novocherkassk due to drone attacks. Railway station building in Peschanokopskoye damaged. Two fatalities reported from a UAV attack on a vehicle, including a surgeon and his brother from Kalmykia. TASS reports military forces repelled a night attack, no casualties. TASS reports PVO forces repelled a UAV attack in two cities and one district of Rostov Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • TASS reports RF PVO forces destroyed four Ukrainian UAVs over Rostov Oblast overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Amur Oblast: A civilian An-24 passenger plane crashed with 43 passengers and 6 crew, no survivors. RF Ministry of Emergency Situations (EMERCOM) psychologists handled over 300 calls. TASS reports investigators seized engines and released photos of wreckage.
  • Rostov Oblast (Novoshakhtinsk): Burning shopping center. One firefighter died, one woman's body found.
  • Nevinnomyssk (Stavropol Krai): Multiple explosions confirmed from alleged drone attacks on Nevinnomyssky Azot industrial plant and Signal radio factory. Satellite imagery confirms damage to the "Signal" plant.
  • Tambov Oblast: "Cotton" (explosions/fires) reported in the area of the Tambov Powder Plant after UAV attack.
  • RF Airports: Flight restrictions in various airports lifted after drone threats. Temporary flight restrictions lifted in Nizhny Novgorod, Pskov, and Kaluga airports. Temporary flight restrictions at Pulkovo Airport (St. Petersburg). Pskov Oblast governor confirmed RF AD shot down a UA UAV. Governor of Nizhny Novgorod reports unsuccessful drone attack on industrial territory. Main Russian Navy Day parade was cancelled due to security concerns. Drones over Leningrad Oblast reported with videos. Over a dozen drones destroyed in Leningrad Oblast, at least 10 confirmed by RF milbloggers. One civilian injured in Lomonosov district, Leningrad Oblast. Pulkovo airport has reopened. Drone attack in Leningrad Oblast repelled. Putin visited the frigate "Admiral Grigorovich," which participated in repelling UAV attacks on Leningrad Oblast. Colonelcassad reports Putin congratulating the commander of the "Admiral Grigorovich" frigate for repelling drone attacks in Leningrad Oblast, confirming the incident and Putin's recognition. Операция Z, citing "Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" claims a "massive enemy attack on Leningrad Oblast: 51 drones intercepted over the region on Sunday." This is an RF claim, but indicates continued, significant UA drone activity targeting critical RF regions. Photo and video messages from Операция Z depict what appears to be a small aircraft, which is likely part of the claimed drone attack. TASS reports one person died and three were injured due to the drone attack on Leningrad Oblast, citing the regional governor. This confirms a significant impact from UA drone operations.
    • UPDATED: TASS reports Aeroflot systems crash, possible flight schedule adjustments. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Новости Москвы confirms Aeroflot crash. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Moscow Oblast: Two drones flying towards Moscow shot down. Fog expected.
  • Bryansk Oblast: Numerous enemy UAVs shot down. RF MoD claims 12 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Crimea, Rostov, and Bryansk Oblasts. AV БогомаZ claims five aircraft-type UAVs detected and destroyed over Bryansk Oblast by RF MoD air defense units.
    • UPDATED: AV БогомаZ claims one UA aircraft-type UAV destroyed over Bryansk Oblast overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Saratov Oblast: Gas explosion in apartment building resulted in 7 fatalities. Search and rescue operations completed. TASS reports specialists will start surveying the 4th and 5th entrances of the Saratov building after the explosion on July 28. TASS reports that all individuals previously listed as missing after the Saratov explosion have been accounted for and contacted.
  • Crimea: Russian milbloggers report detention of a DJ for playing Ukrainian song. RF MoD claims 12 Ukrainian UAVs shot down. Video claiming strike on a military object in occupied Crimea. Multiple videos confirm smoke plumes, implying successful strike.
  • Lipetsk Oblast: Air alert declared, later lifted. Regional official highlights social services and veteran support.
  • Smolensk Oblast: RF AD forces shot down and suppressed six Ukrainian UAVs. Civilian traffic accident resulted in three fatalities and two injuries.
  • Voronezh Oblast: RF sources report UA drone attacks.
  • Kaluga Oblast: RF sources report UA drone attacks.
  • Chelyabinsk Oblast: TASS reports 3 new figures in large-scale embezzlement case. Investigation launched after girl danced on war memorial.
  • RF General AD Claims: RF MoD claims 99 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight, corroborated by RF milbloggers. New RF MoD report claims 291 aircraft-type UAVs and three Vampire MLRS rockets shot down. MoD Russia provides an update on the progress of the special military operation, likely including AD claims. TASS and Два майора claimed 72 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions and the Azov Sea today. ASTRA reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed 72 drones shot down over Russian regions in one day, though ASTRA doesn't verify the number. ASTRA reports a man was injured by an FPV drone strike in Yasnye Zori village, Belgorod Oblast, confirmed by Governor Gladkov. This indicates continued UA drone activity in border regions. TASS also confirmed the FPV drone attack on a vehicle in Belgorod. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports 72 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russia and the Azov Sea today, reinforcing high RF AD claims. Colonelcassad posted the Russian Ministry of Defense daily summary for July 27, 2025, which includes AD claims. TASS reports that Russia has begun accepting applications for remote online voting in September elections in 24 regions, indicating preparations for internal political events. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • UPDATE: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports 7 enemy UAVs destroyed overnight by RF PVO forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • NEW: ASTRA reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed seven Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Bashtov (Bashkortostan): Bus accident with casualties reported. TASS reports over 20 people injured in a tourist bus accident in Bashkiria, eight hospitalized.
  • Other Internal RF Issues: Reports of low-quality dry rations, FSB detentions, corruption arrests. Planned ban on gasoline exports. Mobilization issues. GAZ transitioning to four-day work week. Continued arrests for alleged collaboration. Central Bank lowered key rate to 18%. Admiral Kuznetsov potentially to be scrapped. New domestic RF USV/BEC showcased. Financial scammers targeting Russians. Proposal to shorten alcohol sales hours. RF Deputy Prime Minister Belousov congratulated Russians on Navy Day. Internal RF milblogger message criticizing leadership. Video claiming RF drone operators arming FPV drones with Kalashnikovs. Allegations of "Akhmat" special forces looting apartments in Horlivka. Preparing to protest reports. Peskov commenting on General Ivan Popov. Video of humanoid robot in Moscow. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ collecting aid for VDV Day. Average pensions for women exceeded men's. Video claiming soldier with urinary incontinence mocked. Philologist in Ambush collecting aid for wounded personnel, requesting hexacopters, 10-inch and 13-inch FPV drones, confirming widespread drone supply efforts. Putin visited the frigate "Admiral Grigorovich," which participated in repelling UAV attacks on Leningrad Oblast. Putin awarded "For Loyalty to the Russian Fleet" medal. Russian military recruitment advertisement offering significant pay. Naval infantry brigades to be converted into divisions, qualitatively increasing strike power and combat capabilities. Putin considers it correct that Navy Day is now celebrated with exercises, not a parade. Dvа майора posts a military recruitment advertisement offering 5.5 million rubles for the first year of service. Воин DV video shows soldiers on ATVs, one of which encounters an explosion/fire, suggesting a patrol in a rural/forested area encountered an IED or similar event. Colonelcassad posts medical video of skull trauma, likely related to wounded RF personnel, indicating ongoing casualties. Colonelcassad posts images regarding legal prohibitions on filming AD systems and drone/missile impacts, indicating RF efforts to control information flow internally. TASS reports Putin visiting Nikolsky Naval Cathedral in Kronstadt, reinforcing domestic messaging. Alex Parker Returns posts images related to social commentary and internal political issues within Russia, including criticism of President Vucic of Serbia and a provocative historical claim. Alex Parker Returns also posts video on tobacco sales, which is not directly military but may indicate internal economic/social issues. Новости Москвы reports that the Instagram accounts of Ayaz Shabutdinov and Alexandra Mitroshina have been hacked. Воин DV posted a video titled "Fighters of the SMO will not advise bad things!" which appears to be a pro-war recruitment/morale video. Colonelcassad is continuing aid collections for "assault troops of DNR," "St. George Brigade," and reconnaissance units from the Kherson direction, specifically requesting body armor, helmets, and medical supplies. This confirms ongoing sustainment needs and combat intensity. ASTRA reports a new building for "Movement of the First" will be built in Krasnoyarsk for five billion rubles, indicating significant internal social spending. Старше Эдды posted multiple photo messages celebrating Navy Day and the historical Battle of Gangut, clearly aimed at bolstering morale and national pride related to naval forces. WarGonzo posted a photo message discussing what kind of navy Russia needs, with reference to the Admiral Kuznetsov, indicating internal strategic discussions on naval capabilities. Colonelcassad reports that starting August 1st, WhatsApp and unregistered VPNs will be completely blocked in Russia. This is a significant internal control measure. Alex Parker Returns posted multiple photo messages captioned "This is all that's left of the Ukr. What are they made of?" showing a damaged boot and general destruction, which is clear RF disinformation aimed at demeaning UA personnel. Alex Parker Returns posted a video of a public appearance, likely of a high-profile individual (possibly Putin), which serves to project stability and leadership internally. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts a video of Vyacheslav Volodin speaking at a youth forum, indicating efforts to engage and mobilize the younger generation politically. Kotsnews posted multiple photo messages for "EVENING CHIMES," which are likely morale-boosting or propaganda pieces, though their specific content is unclear. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports that a UAZ vehicle intended for the front was stolen from a supermarket parking lot between Donetsk and Makiivka and sold for scrap metal. This highlights internal criminal activity affecting UA support. Fighterbomber simply posted "Three hundred!", likely referring to a casualty count or a military code, indicating ongoing combat. Alex Parker Returns posted images of a Telegram post, the military intelligence content of which is not directly discernible. Военкор Котенок posted a graphic, "Главные новости сегодня," which does not contain actionable military intelligence. Рыбарь posted a photo message on declining birth rates in Russia. While not military, it indicates a long-term demographic challenge that could impact military recruitment and sustainability. ASTRA reports a court refused to soften the sentence for a contract soldier convicted of robbery six months after being sent to the front from a penal colony. This highlights the continued reliance on recruitment from criminal populations and related internal legal issues. Alex Parker Returns posted videos related to food hygiene in fast-food establishments, which do not have direct military intelligence relevance but may reflect internal social commentary. Alex Parker Returns also posted a screenshot from an e-commerce platform related to unclaimed orders. Colonelcassad posted a video featuring an interview with an RF soldier discussing the situation on the front, morale, and fighting spirit, framed as a recruitment message. Глеб Никитин posted multiple videos of a musical performance in Nizhny Novgorod, likely civilian morale-boosting content, but indicating no military activity in the area. TASS reports that the State Duma called rumors about blocking WhatsApp in Russia on August 1st a "dubious hoax," contradicting earlier reports. This indicates internal inconsistencies in RF messaging on this issue. Оперативний ЗСУ posted a video showing a civilian man tending to a uniformed person with a bloodied head in what appears to be Zheleznogorsk, Kursk Oblast, following an altercation. This indicates internal violence and tension involving military personnel. Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages on Russian Navy Day, including historical naval illustrations, a naval officer, and an event poster, primarily focused on celebrating naval heritage and projecting strength. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for propaganda intent, LOW for direct military relevance). Colonelcassad posts a photo message depicting a Russian naval ship, text suggests it is the Baltic Fleet. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for propaganda intent, LOW for direct military relevance beyond general naval activity). RF Duma committee's efforts to prevent speculative price increases on school uniforms, indicating an internal focus on social issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Police in Khabarovsk Krai are recruiting, indicating continued internal recruitment efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: Полиция Хабаровского края video indicates ongoing law enforcement operations related to financial fraud. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: Новости Москвы reports a "Shrek" character will have a cartoon. This is irrelevant to military intelligence. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
    • NEW: Новости Москвы reports a unified register of dog breeders will be created in Russia, a civilian development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • TASS reports Crocus City Hall terrorists were armed with at least 59 magazines for three Kalashnikov rifles, providing further details on the internal security incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: ТАСС reports one of the Crocus City Hall attackers reconnoitered the venue hours before the concert. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Colonelcassad reports the capture of four Ukrainian military personnel (VUSshniks) attempting to infiltrate Russian territory near Demidovka, Belgorod Oblast (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim). Videos accompanying this claim show individual Ukrainian soldiers and what appears to be their identification. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video content, MEDIUM for RF claim details).
  • TASS reports an individual (Sergey Martynyuk, 156th Brigade) was apprehended by TCC (Ukrainian military recruitment center equivalent) attempting to mobilize him in Zhukovtsy village, Vinnytsia Oblast, and allegedly broke his nose. This is presented by RF as an example of UA forced mobilization tactics. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim)
  • Alex Parker Returns posts satellite imagery and claims significant expansion of drone production in Alabuga, with 10 new buildings and potential for 40,000 employees (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • TASS reports two fatalities and three injuries due to a civilian traffic accident near Kaliningrad (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Colonelcassad posts a video featuring a former US Green Beret detailing alleged war crimes and indiscriminate fire by IDF against unarmed Palestinian civilians. This is likely an RF information operation aimed at diverting attention from Ukraine and discrediting Western allies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • The Khabarovsk Krai Police posted several photo and video messages regarding the discovery and seizure of a large cannabis plantation, detailing the arrest of a woman and the seizure of 720 plants. This is unrelated to military operations but signifies ongoing law enforcement activity in the Russian Far East. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: TASS reports the first direct flight from Moscow to Pyongyang has landed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: TASS reports Russia is expanding logistics links with North Korea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: TASS reports Crocus City Hall terrorists received training in Turkey. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports Roscosmos will test reusable rocket stages in the next 1.5-2 years. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports accomplices in the Crocus City Hall attack planned to blow up an entertainment complex in Kaspiysk, Dagestan. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kazakhstan: Kazakh Ministry of Defense searching for a missing military helicopter and its crew.
• Regional Context (Non-Ukraine):
  • Germany: TASS reports at least three fatalities due to a passenger train derailment near Riedlingen in southwest Germany, a civilian incident (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ also posts about this incident with photos of the derailed train (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Cyprus: Uncontained wildfires and two deaths. Large-scale fires in Turkey reported. Russian tourists vacationing in Turkey as usual. RBC-Ukraine posted videos and photos of large-scale forest fires in Turkey, specifically approaching Bursa.
  • Lithuania: Prepared infrastructure for additional US and NATO troops. Will allocate €30M for Patriot systems. Patrushev stated any military encroachment on Kaliningrad would receive a devastating response.
    • NEW: STERNENKO reports a UAV from Belarus was detected near Vilnius, Lithuania. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Red Sea: Distress signal regarding a vessel seizure.
  • Syria: Alleged ethnic cleansing. French court canceled arrest warrant for Assad. Terrorist attack in Zahedan, Iran. US liquidated senior ISIS leader. Two MKO terrorists linked to Israel were executed in Iran. Alex Parker Returns posts images related to Syria, though the content is unclear without translation, suggesting continued RF interest in the region.
  • Black Sea Region: "Massive UAV raid" reported. Resumption of attacks. Putin states plans for modern naval forces. Naval exercises ("July Storm") ongoing, involving exercises of three fleets and the Caspian Flotilla via video link, with SMO experience taken into account. Two Majors video shows Baltic Fleet forces destroying maritime target with unmanned systems. Expected attack of underwater and conventional USVs on Novorossiysk, Anapa. Putin congratulated sailors and officers on Navy Day. Video showing Baltic Fleet ship "Viktor Veliky" conducting anti-aircraft missile firing exercises. Colonelcassad has posted a video showing Baltic Fleet forces destroying a maritime target using a combination of a Lancet loitering munition and an unmanned surface vessel (USV). Video of large-scale naval exercises. Putin arrived at St. Petersburg Admiralty. Video showing a significant explosion in a coastal urban area. RF Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov unveiled a bust devoted to Admiral Ushakov. Dvа майора posts a video showcasing a naval parade or exercise featuring various warships and aircraft, including a submarine, consistent with Navy Day celebrations. Fighterbomber also posts photos featuring Russian Navy veterans, likely related to Navy Day. Басурин о главном also posts images celebrating Soviet Navy history, aligning with Navy Day messaging. Басурин о главном posted a photo regarding a new radio broadcast, which indicates continued information efforts. Fighterbomber posted a text message discussing naval terms and concepts transferring to aviation, likely a cultural or historical observation related to Navy Day. Colonelcassad posted a video showing an anti-drone version of the Ka-52 helicopter armed with "Igla-S" missiles engaged in combat operations, showing thermal/night vision footage of aerial engagements and close air support. Николаевский Ванёк reports an increased number of Russian strategic aviation aircraft in the air (now 6), implying heightened air threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports possible take-off of RF strategic aviation (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF milblogger criticism of Russian tourists vacationing in Turkey due to Turkey's supply of Bayraktar drones to Ukraine, indicating internal geopolitical friction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports pre-launch maneuvers of first two Tu-160 strategic bombers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: Басурин о главном posts photos reinforcing messaging for "Navy Day". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cambodia-Thailand Border: Bloody battles approaching Russian resorts. Ceasefire agreement mediated by Trump reported by multiple sources. Fighting resumed after Trump's mediation. Mediator and date for peace talks known. Рыбарь posts a video of a female Cambodian pilot in a fighter jet, with nationalistic text, likely aimed at boosting morale or projecting strength. Alex Parker Returns reported Trump appealing to Cambodia and Thailand regarding their conflict, linking it to trade deals, indicating continued US engagement. US administration will assist in peaceful settlement of border conflict between Cambodia and Thailand, per Marco Rubio. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Estonia: Sounding alarm about Russia moving EW systems closer to NATO. NATO has increased reconnaissance flights along the Kaliningrad border. "Challenger 650 Artemis" reconnaissance aircraft flights in Kaliningrad and Black Sea waters confirmed.
  • Georgia (Tbilisi): Unknown individuals exploded firecrackers near a hotel where Russian fencers were staying. Videos of protests in Georgia where a Russian flag is being burned. NATO exercises continued in Georgia. Оперативний ЗСУ posted videos of protests in Tbilisi where Georgians "met" the Russian fencing team with fireworks and posters, indicating continued anti-Russian sentiment. TASS claims provocations against Russian fencers are orchestrated from Kyiv.
  • Austria: Ready to discuss joining NATO, due to RF aggressive policy. Воин DV reports Austria's readiness to discuss abandoning neutrality due to Russia. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 confirms Austria's Foreign Minister stated they are ready to discuss NATO membership and abandoning neutrality due to Russia. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Austria's Foreign Minister stated Trump was ready to "give" Putin 5 Ukrainian regions, indicating a focus on broader geopolitical implications for Ukraine. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reiterates Austria's Foreign Minister's statement on readiness to discuss abandoning neutrality and joining NATO (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • EU: Stood on principle. Intense negotiations between the US and EU regarding 15% tariffs before a meeting between Trump and von der Leyen, indicating a potential trade war. Операция Z and RBC-Ukraine posted about the EU freezing €1.5 billion in aid to Ukraine, specifically tying it to Ukraine's anti-corruption reforms and Zelenskyy's response. RBC-Ukraine posted two videos of Trump and Ursula von der Leyen discussing Iran and tariffs. This confirms continued high-level diplomatic engagement and potential for significant trade disputes between the US and EU. TASS reports Trump stated the EU will purchase $750 billion in energy carriers from the US and invest another $600 billion in the American economy. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports the EU froze €1.5 billion in aid to Ukraine. Оперативний ЗСУ and Colonelcassad report Trump announcing a major trade deal with the EU, including the purchase of $750 billion in energy, and a 15% tariff on automobiles. This confirms significant economic and geopolitical implications. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the Rada believes anti-corruption cases can be used as leverage by the US against Ukraine, indicating domestic Ukrainian awareness of this dynamic. ASTRA reports the EU suspended €1.5 billion aid to Ukraine due to the law on subordination of anti-corruption bodies, citing NYT. STERNENKO reports Trump stating the EU and US concluded a trade deal.
    • UPDATE: ТАСС reports Marine Le Pen stated the US-Brussels trade deal is a fiasco for Europe. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: РБК-Україна reports Orban criticized the new EU seven-year budget as living in "fantasies". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • NEW: Операция Z posts a photo message from Военкоры Русской Весны showing Marine Le Pen's criticism of the EU-US trade deal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • North Korea: Registration for the first Moscow-Pyongyang flight opening at Sheremetyevo Airport. Russia considering all possibilities for expanding communication with North Korea, including sea and ferry links. TASS confirmed the first direct flight from Moscow to Pyongyang departed Sheremetyevo Airport. RBC-Ukraine posts photo message highlighting the new direct aviation link. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Venezuela: Urgent intelligence analysis on petroleum and gas infrastructure in Venezuela, suggesting potential for Russian interest/activity.
  • Israel-Iran: Alex Parker Returns posts video claiming damage to Weizmann Institute in Israel from Iranian hypersonic missile, used to explain why conflict was quickly ended; this is a highly dubious claim, likely disinformation, but it indicates a propaganda narrative. RBC-Ukraine reported Israel will begin daily pauses in fighting in Gaza. ASTRA reports that Gaza authorities state 133 people have died from starvation since the blockade began, including 87 children. This highlights the severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza and is a significant development, though not directly military.
  • History/Culture: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video about historical Podillia, indicating a focus on cultural narratives. Kotsnews posts video commemorating battle for Saur-Mogila in 2014, indicating RF historical/propaganda focus on past "victories". Kotsnews also shows a public "RENDEZVOUS" event, likely civilian. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts image related to "Day of Remembrance for Fallen Children", likely a propaganda piece attempting to elicit sympathy or outrage. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posted a memorial video with a lit candle and a portrait of a Ukrainian soldier, reinforcing UA patriotic and memorial themes. Воин DV posted a photo message celebrating the liberation of Lviv by the Red Army in 1944. This is a historical propaganda piece. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video dedicated to children victims of the war in Donbas, including destroyed buildings and portraits of children (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Geneva: TASS video shows Valentina Matviyenko arriving in Geneva for the Sixth World Conference of Speakers of Parliaments, indicating ongoing high-level diplomatic engagement by Russia.
  • US Politics/Aid: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports the US administration reallocated budget from nuclear weapons modernization to repair Trump's Air Force One, which was a gift from Qatar, according to NYT. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reported that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated Trump no longer believes in the Kremlin's ability to negotiate an end to the war, suggesting a potential change in US approach to resolution.
  • Ukraine - CFE Treaty: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ukraine is suspending its obligations under the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RBC-Ukraine posts photo message highlighting Poland strengthening its NATO Eastern Shield with US support, indicating continued NATO deterrence posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Операция Z reports Zelenskyy wants European representatives, not just Trump and Erdogan, at a meeting with Putin, indicating a preference for broader international engagement on peace talks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RBC-Ukraine reports Macron promised Zelenskyy to increase pressure on Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Tactical Development - Lancet Intercept: Claimed FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet loitering munition. STERNENKO posted photos of an "anti-aircraft FPV" with the caption "Aliens will arrive, and we already have anti-aircraft FPVs😎". This is likely a reference to attempts to use FPV drones against aerial targets, reinforcing the previously reported claim.
• New RF Naval Commissioning: Putin participated in ceremony for raising naval ensign on 'Knyaz Pozharsky' nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine. Putin visited the frigate "Admiral Grigorovich," which participated in repelling UAV attacks on Leningrad Oblast. Putin was awarded "For Loyalty to the Russian Fleet" medal.
• New US Aid Package to Ukraine: US approval of $330 million military package. First Patriot battery and missiles from Germany arrived (3 systems transferred). Lithuanian Minister of Defense pledged €30 million for Patriot systems. Ukraine will receive 33,000 AI-powered drone strike kits from Auterion by year-end. RF milblogger claims a Patriot system with two radar stations and a launcher was destroyed at Starokostiantyniv airfield. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts image of financial transaction for "mud tires for UA", indicating ongoing crowdfunding for military supplies. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posted a photo message with the caption "Don't push the horses," likely a morale or fundraising message, reinforcing ongoing efforts for support. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posted an image of a financial transaction, likely another instance of ongoing crowdfunding for UA military supplies. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Bell Helicopters from the USA plan to invest in Ukrainian industry and deploy helicopter production in Ukraine (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора posted a fundraising message for "Frontline Armor" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Starlink Outage: Global Starlink outage largely resolved, software-related.
• Israel-Palestine Recognition: Israel condemns France's decision to recognize Palestine. Israeli military states no evidence of Hamas regularly stealing UN aid. "Tactical pause" by IDF in Gaza for humanitarian aid.
• Internal Ukrainian Political Developments: RBC-Ukraine posts photo claiming "Retribution for the NABU and SAP anti-corruption scandal was not long in coming: the EU severely punishes Ukraine." TASS reports NYT opinion on Zelenskyy's persecution of anti-corruption agencies. Zelenskiy signed laws on ARMA reform and factoring. Svyrydenko on economic development and defense production. "Madyar" hinted at an RF attempt to simultaneously kill drone unit commanders, indicating a high-level targeted threat to UAF leadership. Старше Эдды (RF milblogger) dismisses Madyar's claim as "PR". Zelenskyy introduced new sanctions. Conversation with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, discussing European integration, further sanctions against Russia, and anti-corruption infrastructure. RBC-Ukraine posts photo (no caption) which is likely part of the ongoing political dialogue. Операция Z (RF milblogger) asserts that the EU froze €1.5 billion in aid, forcing Zelenskyy to "immediately" restore the powers of anti-corruption agencies and adopt required laws, framing it as Ukraine submitting to EU demands. DeepState confirms Ukraine increased sanctions pressure on RF military-industrial complex. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms Zelenskyy signed laws on ARMA reform and factoring following his conversation with Ursula von der Leyen. Оперативний ЗСУ posts images of a protest in Kyiv against the law on NABU and SAP (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • UPDATE: Олександр Вілкул reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of 280433Z JUL 25. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: Оперативний ЗСУ reports 5 casualties, including a child, in Darnitsky district, Kyiv, from a UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: STERNENKO reports 8 casualties, including a 3-year-old child with shrapnel wounds, in Kyiv's Darnitsky district due to a night RF attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shows photos/videos of damaged apartment building in Kyiv after RF attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ posts photo and video messages showing civilians sheltering in Kyiv metro stations overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Imagery/Video Assessments:
  • DShV (UAF) Photos: Multiple photos from Ukrainian Air Assault Forces with the caption "On the battlefield, not the strongest or bravest wins. The coordinated team wins." These images show well-equipped UA personnel, likely training or on duty, demonstrating professionalism and morale.
  • ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ: Thermal imaging footage from a drone shows engagement with a light-colored vehicle, indicating surveillance and a potential attack on Ukrainian military assets. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posted two photo messages captioned "Новинки противника в области БПЛА" (Enemy UAV Novelties), without further detail. This indicates RF awareness of new UA drone developments, but lacks specific tactical information.
    • UPDATED: ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts morale-boosting photo message "Good morning, friends!" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС: Video shows a military ambulance with medical personnel attending to a wounded soldier. The context indicates immediate combat casualty care, emphasizing the ongoing human cost of the conflict and the efforts of medical support. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posted a new video showing a large-scale RF mechanized assault being repelled by the 54th Separate Mechanized Brigade, resulting in significant RF materiel and personnel losses. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the theft of a UAZ vehicle destined for the front, highlighting internal crime. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posted a photo message referring to a neonazi unit "Rusich" posting photos of dismembered bodies to sell t-shirts. This highlights the extreme and horrific nature of some RF-affiliated groups' propaganda and actions. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posted a graphic video of a Russian soldier committing suicide on the Pokrovsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zelenskiy / Official: Video shows Zelenskyy visiting a medical facility, interacting with military and medical personnel, and observing medical equipment. This visit appears aimed at supporting and acknowledging the efforts of military medics and the healthcare system. Oleg Sinegubov (Kharkiv ODA) and Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration also shared this video, indicating a coordinated information campaign. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) also shared a video of Zelenskyy visiting a medical facility, reinforcing the coordinated message.
  • Воин DV: Video titled "Fighters of the SMO will not advise bad things!" which appears to be a pro-war recruitment/morale video. Воин DV posted a photo message about the liberation of Lviv by the Red Army in 1944, a historical propaganda piece. Воин DV posts video claiming artillery of the 1198th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 35th Army Group "Vostok" is destroying enemy strongpoints and fortifications on the South Donetsk direction, with drone footage showing a hit and "1 hit target" text. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for drone footage, MEDIUM for specific unit and target claims).
  • Colonelcassad (aid collection videos): Multiple videos showing RF personnel (some in uniform) receiving or organizing aid, including fuel, body armor, helmets, and medical supplies. These videos are part of a crowdfunding effort for RF units, particularly "assault troops of DNR," "St. George Brigade," and reconnaissance from the Kherson direction. One video shows a group of RF soldiers expressing confidence and solidarity, likely for morale boosting. Colonelcassad also posted two photo messages showing French President Macron making statements about pressuring Russia for a ceasefire. Colonelcassad posted a video featuring an interview with an RF soldier discussing the situation on the front, morale, and fighting spirit, framed as a recruitment message. Colonelcassad posted multiple photos of a wedding ceremony, which is irrelevant to military intelligence. Colonelcassad posted a video that appears to be a pro-Ukrainian recruitment message, with mixed personal and news footage, which is an unusual post for this channel. Colonelcassad posted a video of an anti-drone Ka-52 helicopter armed with "Igla-S" missiles. Colonelcassad posted the Russian Ministry of Defense daily summary for July 27, 2025. Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages showing deceased Ukrainian soldiers, claiming they did not survive being on the islands near Kherson. Colonelcassad posted two photo messages from CNN regarding the expansion of drone production in Alabuga. Colonelcassad reports the US Treasury now accepts payments via Venmo and PayPal for the national debt, an economic/financial note. Colonelcassad posted multiple videos of Ukrainian soldiers, identified as mobilized personnel from the 225th Regiment, 1st Battalion, 1st Battery, and 39th Brigade, speaking in a wooded environment. Some are identified by name and unit. This content appears to be POW interrogations or captured personal accounts used for RF propaganda, claiming infiltration attempts into Belgorod Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts updated maps of "Krasnoarmeyskoye Direction" (Pokrovsk), Kupyansk, and Krasnolimansky direction (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages on Russian Navy Day, including historical naval illustrations, a naval officer, and an event poster, primarily focused on celebrating naval heritage and projecting strength. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for propaganda intent, LOW for direct military relevance). Colonelcassad posts a photo message depicting a Russian naval ship, text suggests it is the Baltic Fleet. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for propaganda intent, LOW for direct military relevance beyond general naval activity).
  • Colonelcassad posts video of a mobile air defense pickup truck being tested by Black Sea Fleet (BFF) personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Colonelcassad posts video of captured Ukrainian soldiers, including what appears to be a museum dedicated to fallen children of Donbas, using them for propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Colonelcassad posts videos of "Geranium" (Shahed) strikes in the Savinyon settlement, near the Brewery in Odesa, and a wider view of an explosion and smoke plume in the coastal area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Colonelcassad posts a video of a small, triangular-shaped aircraft/drone over Odesa. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Colonelcassad posts a video featuring a former US Green Beret detailing alleged war crimes by IDF, likely an RF information operation aimed at diverting attention from Ukraine and discrediting Western allies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Colonelcassad posts a warning to Ukrainian citizens of an impending, unspecified major attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UPDATE: Colonelcassad posts drone footage showing a BMP-1TS, identified as Ukrainian, detonating after hitting a mine and catching fire in Razino, DNR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Colonelcassad indicates that the islands on the Dnieper River near Kherson are a significant threat to the UAF, implying continued RF pressure and successful operations there. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • UPDATED: Colonelcassad reports "Night missile arrivals" with video showing bright objects and illuminated residential buildings in Kam'yans'ke. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: Colonelcassad posts video of the 16th Separate Special Forces Brigade destroying a T-72M tank with a Lancet loitering munition in the Serebryansky forestry area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad posts a map depicting night strikes by RF on Ukraine for 28.07.2025 (enemy-attributed). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Оперативний ЗСУ (Wounded Scout): Photo messages showing a Ukrainian scout from the "Tour" unit, callsign "Murchyk," who sustained moderate injuries from enemy MLRS fire in Andriivka. The images depict the scout after receiving medical attention, including bandages and likely showing signs of shrapnel wounds, emphasizing the ongoing human cost of the conflict and the efforts of medical support. Оперативний ЗСУ posted videos of Georgian protests against the Russian fencing team in Tbilisi, highlighting anti-Russian sentiment abroad. Оперативний ЗСУ also posted two photo messages stating that WhatsApp and VPNs will be blocked in Russia starting August 1st. Оперативний ЗСУ posted about Trump concluding a trade deal with the EU. Оперативний ЗСУ posted an aerial reconnaissance video from "Birds of Madyar" showing an RF soldier being engaged and killed. Оперативний ЗСУ posted a video of a civilian attacking an SVO participant in Zheleznogorsk, Kursk Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ukraine suspends obligations under CFE Treaty (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ posts images of a protest in Kyiv against the law on NABU and SAP (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ posts two photo messages (likely duplicate) about a passenger train derailment in Germany (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Ukrainian FPV drone operators effectively engaging a Russian vehicle, likely a truck or APC, resulting in its destruction and visible casualties, demonstrating continued tactical effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: Оперативний ЗСУ posts photo messages about 5 casualties, including a child, from a UAV attack in Kyiv's Darnitsky district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: Оперативний ЗСУ reports fast moving target on Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvnyi ZSU reports fast moving target on Zhytomyr. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvnyi ZSU reports fast moving target on Khmelnytska Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvnyi ZSU reports fast moving target in Kyiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ posts photo and video messages showing civilians sheltering in Kyiv metro stations overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ confirms nationwide missile danger due to MiG-31K. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Alex Parker Returns: Multiple photo messages with RF propaganda content. Video of a public appearance suggesting internal leadership stability. Alex Parker Returns posted two photo messages with captions that are unclear, "Инсайд. Зафиксировали на ребе Поздмана." These images do not directly provide military intelligence. Alex Parker Returns posted videos on food hygiene in fast-food establishments, which lack military intelligence relevance. Alex Parker Returns posted a screenshot from an e-commerce platform related to unclaimed orders, lacking military intelligence relevance. Alex Parker Returns posted multiple photo messages captioned "This is all that's left of the Ukr. What are they made of?" Alex Parker Returns posted a video of a public appearance, likely of a high-profile individual (possibly Putin). Alex Parker Returns posted images related to Syria. Alex Parker Returns posts a video of individuals on a golf course with a caption implying "American politics is cheating at golf" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts satellite imagery and claims significant expansion of drone production in Alabuga (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF propaganda from Alex Parker Returns features text questioning the ease of current life ("А кому сейчас легко?"), indicating an acknowledgment of hardship, likely aimed at domestic audiences. The accompanying images are mostly irrelevant to military intelligence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for sentiment, LOW for specific military impact).
• Два майора: Video from Germany showcasing drone development. While not directly military, it indicates continued advancements in drone technology that could be adapted for military use. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posted a text message discussing the Rada's view on anti-corruption cases being US leverage. Два майора posted a photo message about Ukrainian channels worrying about the night situation in the sky. Два майора posted a fundraising video for "Frontline Armor" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора posts a military recruitment advertisement (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). NEW: Два майора posted a "Morning Summary" which contains general tactical updates. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Два майора posts a photo message captioned "What Rybar says," summarizing Rybar's morning report. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Два майора posts an intelligence report on Portuguese drone manufacturer Tekever opening an AI drone R&D center in France, indicating continued drone tech advancements by NATO allies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Два майора warns about the situation in Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• STERNENKO: Posts about an upcoming podcast and a fundraising lottery for a knife. These indicate ongoing public engagement and fundraising efforts for UA. STERNENKO posted a video claiming a pontoon bridge/crossing was destroyed, indicating a successful UA strike. STERNENKO reports Trump stating the EU and US concluded a trade deal. STERNENKO reports 2 Tu-95MS take off from Olenya airfield, warns of missile threat (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Loud explosions reported in Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cruise missile detected heading towards Kyiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Several more missiles heading for Poltava Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • STERNENKO requests aid for the military to "kill Russians" during ongoing missile activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: STERNENKO reports 8 casualties, including a 3-year-old child, in Kyiv's Darnitsky district due to a night RF attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: STERNENKO reports MiG-31K took off, triggering nationwide alert. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports Kinzhal launches towards Starokostiantyniv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: STERNENKO initiates a fundraising drive for a "rusorez" (likely a tactical knife for combat). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: STERNENKO reports a UAV from Belarus was detected near Vilnius, Lithuania. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS: Graphic video showing the 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade repelling RF assaults south of Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating effective UA defense against small assault groups, including those on motorcycles. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF launched drones from 5 locations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posted multiple photo messages of the damaged bus in Sumy, showing the aftermath of the civilian attack. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posted a video featuring Russian volunteers in the "Freedom of Russia Legion" participating in defense on the Orikhiv direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reiterates Austria's Foreign Minister's statement on NATO discussion (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a group of Tu-95MS taking off from Olenya airfield (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UPDATE: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms 5 casualties in Darnitsky district, Kyiv, 1 child among them, with 4 hospitalized. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on air raid alerts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Shows photos/videos of damaged apartment building in Kyiv after RF attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on three MiG-31Ks in the air. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF advance near Stepnohirsk and claimed capture of Plavni. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RBC-Ukraine: Posted four photo messages showing the damaged bus in Sumy Oblast and the increased number of injured (20). RBC-Ukraine posted videos of Trump and Ursula von der Leyen discussing trade deals, confirming high-level economic diplomacy. RBC-Ukraine posted an "epic video" of the battles for Kindrativka, showing intense combat footage. RBC-Ukraine posted videos and photos of forest fires in Turkey. RBC-Ukraine reports on the restoration of a key department at Ohmatdit children's hospital. РБК-Україна reports an update on "Shaheds" movement (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports a civilian casualty in Balta, Odesa Oblast, due to a tree falling (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна posts updated "Shahed" movement information (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports PPO working again in Kyiv (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports possible take-off of RF strategic aviation (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF tactical aviation activity in the Eastern direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RBC-Ukraine posts photo message highlighting Poland strengthening NATO's Eastern Shield with US support, indicating continued NATO deterrence posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RBC-Ukraine posts image of a map showing Ukrainian regions highlighted in red and dark blue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RBC-Ukraine reports on strike UAV threat for Volyn Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RBC-Ukraine reports on strike UAV threat for Rivne. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RBC-Ukraine reports on strike UAV threat for Vinnytsia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RBC-Ukraine reports renewed explosions and PPO activity in Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RBC-Ukraine reports Macron promised Zelenskyy to increase pressure on Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RBC-Ukraine reports renewed explosions in Kropyvnytskyi. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Photo message indicating RF launched cruise missiles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • High-speed missile targeting Cherkasy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RBC-Ukraine reports Poland has scrambled fighter jets due to the missile attack on Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UPDATE: RBC-Ukraine reports tactical aviation activity in the North-Eastern direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: RBC-Ukraine posts two photo messages, likely containing tactical analysis or imagery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: RBC-Ukraine posts a general "Military Intelligence Analysis" header. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - no content)
  • UPDATE: РБК-Україна reports Orban criticized the new EU seven-year budget as living in "fantasies". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: RBC-Ukraine warns of fast moving target on Khmelnytska Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBC-Ukraine warns of missile danger for all Ukraine due to MiG-31K launch. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBC-Ukraine reports fast moving target on Kyiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: RBC-Ukraine provides a photo message summary of key news overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: RBC-Ukraine posts a photo message confirming fire liquidation continues in Kirovohrad Oblast after night RF attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports renewed air raid alert in Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports fast moving target on Chernihiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports fast moving target on Zhytomyr. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Z Komitet + карта СВО: Posted four photo messages of a tactical map for the Krasnolimansky direction. Старше Эдды reports on new "Shturm" robotic complexes at Uralvagonzavod test site. Z комитет + карта СВО posts historical map (CONFIDENCE: LOW).
• Генеральний штаб ЗСУ: Posted multiple photos celebrating Medical Worker's Day, showing soldiers in a field hospital and a soldier driving a vehicle.
  • UPDATED: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 08:00 28.07.2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posts photos of Ukrainian personnel, likely for morale-boosting or recruitment purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Операция Z: Posted images related to RF drone production in Alabuga, citing CNN, indicating expansion of RF drone manufacturing. Операция Z reports Russian Army offensive between Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z posts video of the "Shturm" robotic complex working (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF strategic aviation (Tu-95/22) is en route to Ukraine, with dozens of strike drones also inbound (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This confirms widespread, simultaneous aerial threats.
  • Операция Z reports Zelenskyy wants European representatives, not just Trump and Erdogan, at a meeting with Putin, indicating a preference for broader international engagement on peace talks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Операция Z posts a photo message from Военкоры Русской Весны showing Marine Le Pen's criticism of the EU-US trade deal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Операция Z posts on North Korea choosing Russia over dialogue with US/SK. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• «Зона СВО»: Posted video of a downed drone, likely a commercial DJI Mavic, in a wooded area. This is a potential enemy reconnaissance or attack drone, indicating intelligence value.
• Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦: Posted a video of a man speaking Russian with Ukrainian subtitles, discussing the effectiveness of actions related to the conflict and questioning certain military/information operations. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports continued heavy fighting near Pokrovsk and requests support (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video depicting significant smoke plumes from a settlement at sunrise in Pokrovsk, implying ongoing heavy combat or shelling. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a morale-boosting photo message with a morning greeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a call for donations for "morning espresso for the soldiers." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video related to 2014 events, likely for historical context or propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Глеб Никитин: Posted multiple videos of a civilian musical performance in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia. These are not militarily relevant.
• TASS: Posted photos showing the State Duma calling WhatsApp blocking rumors a "dubious hoax." TASS reports civilian traffic accident near Kaliningrad (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports that Russia has begun accepting applications for remote online voting in September elections in 24 regions, indicating preparations for internal political events. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Russian Duma committee's efforts to prevent speculative price increases on school uniforms, indicating an internal focus on social issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports on RF military personnel recruitment for service in the Internal Affairs bodies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • TASS reports Crocus City Hall terrorists were armed with at least 59 magazines for three Kalashnikov rifles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • TASS reports Russian contract soldiers are involved in close combat in Novoekonomicheskoye, DNR. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim)
  • TASS reports a captured Ukrainian soldier (Sergey Martynyuk, 156th Brigade) claims he broke the nose of a TCC employee who tried to mobilize him. This is presented by RF as an example of UA forced mobilization tactics. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim)
  • TASS reports US administration will assist in peaceful settlement of border conflict between Cambodia and Thailand, per Marco Rubio. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • TASS reports that a captured serviceman from the Ukrainian 156th Brigade, Alexander Mamchur, claims that TCC employees mobilized five residents of Ukraine at once as they were returning from work, taking their phones. This is a propaganda piece focused on portraying forced mobilization by UA. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim)
  • TASS reports that Ukrainian Armed Forces Command is redeploying reserves to Melove (Харьковская область) in an attempt to contain the Russian offensive. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim)
  • TASS reports that Russian forces bypassed UA positions from the flanks to enter Zeleni Hay, Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim) UPDATE: TASS reports the first direct flight from Moscow to Pyongyang has landed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: TASS reports Russia is expanding logistics links with North Korea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: TASS reports Crocus City Hall terrorists received training in Turkey. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: ТАСС reports one of the Crocus City Hall attackers reconnoitered the venue hours before the concert. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports Roscosmos will test reusable rocket stages in the next 1.5-2 years. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports accomplices in the Crocus City Hall attack planned to blow up an entertainment complex in Kaspiysk, Dagestan. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: ТАСС reports Marine Le Pen stated the US-Brussels trade deal is a fiasco for Europe. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: ТАСС reports RF PVO forces destroyed four Ukrainian UAVs over Rostov Oblast overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: TASS reports Aeroflot systems crash, possible flight schedule adjustments. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: TASS reports that representatives of the 61st Mechanized Brigade of the AFU, which lost combat effectiveness, left Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim)
  • NEW: TASS reports RF used "Geran-2" (Shahed) to strike a UA unit position on Khortytsia Island. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: TASS reports Seoul intends to continue efforts to ease tensions with North Korea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Николаевский Ванёк: Николаевский Ванёк reports overall "moped" (Shahed) activity (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Николаевский Ванёк reports one "moped" over Kyiv (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Николаевский Ванёк reports fundraising for 47th Brigade continues (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Николаевский Ванёк reports an increased number of Russian strategic aviation aircraft in the air (now 6), implying heightened air threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). General update on "mopeds" (Shaheds) activity, confirming continued widespread UAV threat across Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports pre-launch maneuvers of first two Tu-160 strategic bombers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Four "mopeds" approaching Starokostiantyniv. Eight "mopeds" turned towards Kropyvnytskyi. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "Mopeds" (Shaheds) have been neutralized near Kropyvnytskyi. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • 12 "mopeds" approaching Starokostiantyniv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • 10 "mopeds" around Starokostiantyniv, with 5 more flying from Vinnytsia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Initial missiles in the Pryluky area, heading for Poltava Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • More missiles entering, with the same course towards Poltava Oblast, and then further towards Cherkasy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • All missiles are currently heading towards/through Zolotonosha/Cherkasy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Missiles and "mopeds" are neutralized. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports strike UAV threat for Vinnytsia and Kirovohrad Oblasts from the east (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Reports UAVs from Sumy and Chernihiv regions moving southwest (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Reports strike UAV threat for Bila Tserkva district, Kyiv Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Reports strike UAV threat from south for Mykolaiv Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Ongoing Shahed activity and updates on their movement, including a new threat for Rivne Oblast. New threat of strike UAVs for Pavlohradskyi and Samarivskyi districts, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAV threat for Volyn Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of UAV threat for Rivne City. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of UAV threat for Vinnytsia City. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Air Force reports strike UAV threat for Starokostiantyniv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Air Force reports UAV in direction of Kropyvnytskyi. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Air Force warns of threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UPDATE: Air Force issues general warning (0236Z). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • High-speed missile targeting Cherkasy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • High-speed missile detected in Southern Chernihiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Starokostiantyniv threatened by enemy strike UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • High-speed target on Vinnytsia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • High-speed target on the border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblasts, course to the west. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Air Force issues general warning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UPDATE: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports tactical aviation activity in the North-Eastern direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New report from Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine indicates a threat of aviation munitions for Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi district) Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports 3 UAVs were shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports fast moving target on Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports fast moving target on Zhytomyr. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports fast moving target on Khmelnytska Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports fast moving target in Kyiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that the threat of MiG-31K has been cleared. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Рыбарь: Russian commentary on Turkish Bayraktar drones and Russian tourism in Turkey, indicating internal geopolitical discourse. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Рыбарь posts a "Chronicle of the SMO for July 26-27," which is a daily summary of operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: Рыбарь provides a morning summary for July 28, 2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• НгП раZVедка: RF milblogger states "We will finish off the chubby air defense now, and the strategists will begin to improve our negotiating positions." This implies an intent to conduct strategic bomber strikes after degrading UA air defenses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Starokostiantyniv "started spoiling the furrow" (i.e., being attacked/damaged). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Дневник Десантника🇷🇺: NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts two photo messages captioned "Airborne Brotherhood, good morning!", likely morale-boosting or a daily summary. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports 7 enemy UAVs destroyed overnight by RF PVO forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims RF destroyed UA ammunition depots in the Kharkiv area. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim).
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the command of the 61st Mechanized Brigade of the AFU fled Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video showing paratroopers from the 7th Airborne Division appealing for donations for a drone and Starlink. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Xmelnytska Oblast: New report of enemy aerial attacks overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: Fast moving target on Khmelnytska Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alert lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: Warning of air raid for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). WarGonzo provides updated front summary for Zaporizhzhia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts a video for "Minute of Silence," commemorating fallen defenders. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• No new significant weather or environmental factors reported that would critically impact current operations in Ukraine. Existing conditions (e.g., fog in Moscow Oblast, if affecting flight operations) remain relevant where noted. RBC-Ukraine reported strong thunderstorms and heat up to +37 degrees Celsius for the coming week, which could impact ground operations and logistics due to reduced visibility and heat stress. Large-scale forest fires in Turkey near Bursa (RBC-Ukraine) highlight environmental disasters in the region, though not directly impacting Ukrainian operations.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF Force Dispositions:
  • Odesa/Black Sea: Continued deployment of Shahed UAVs from the Black Sea, targeting southern Odesa. Naval forces engaged in large-scale exercises. RF drone observed descending over the sea near Odesa (Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" video). Ka-52 anti-drone helicopter armed with "Igla-S" missiles observed in combat operations (Colonelcassad). RF strategic aviation is active, with 6 aircraft (Ту-95МС) confirmed airborne (Николаевский Ванёк, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO, РБК-Україна), indicating a widespread missile threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Mobile air defense pickup truck with heavy machine gun being tested by Black Sea Fleet (BFF) personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Two Tu-160 strategic bombers have completed pre-launch maneuvers and are likely airborne/imminent threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Colonelcassad posts videos of "Geranium" (Shahed) strikes in the Savinyon settlement, near the Brewery in Odesa. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Colonelcassad posts a video of a small, triangular-shaped aircraft/drone over Odesa. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: MiG-31K aircraft airborne. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). NEW: Three MiG-31K aircraft reported airborne. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: TASS reports RF used "Geran-2" (Shahed) to strike a UA unit position on Khortytsia Island. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Dnipropetrovsk: Presence of RF FPV drone operations, particularly around Yanvarske (Sichneve). Artillery shelling on Nikopol region. Threat of strike UAVs for Synelnykivskyi, Dniprovskyi, and Nikopol districts. Information on 4 Tu-95MS, 4 Tu-22M3, 3 Tu-160, and 8 MiG-31K aircraft being ready for combat use, with particular attention for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Threat of strike UAVs for Pavlohradskyi and Samarivskyi districts, Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast persists. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New report from Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine indicates a threat of aviation munitions for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, particularly Synelnykivskyi district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports 3 UAVs were shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ASTRA reports two casualties in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast due to RF attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Donetsk (Pokrovsk Axis): Continued offensive operations aiming for encirclement of Pokrovsk, with maps from Colonelcassad and Z Komitet + карта СВО indicating active efforts, particularly around Myrolyubovka. Elements of 98th VDV Div active near Kostiantynivka. Introduction of 152mm "Hyacinth-K" howitzer. Два майора's drone footage from Yablonovka, Konstantinovka direction, suggests RF forces are operating in heavily contested residential areas and engaging in intense combat. Сливочный каприз maps indicate continued RF pressure and potential advances in the Pokrovsk and Siversk-Serebryanka areas. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms RF use of small assault groups and motorcycles in Zaporizhzhia, suggesting similar tactics may be employed on other axes. Операция Z's video on Katerinovka confirms continued RF focus on advancing towards Konstantinovka. Военкор Котенок reports on water supply issues in Donetsk, indicating civilian hardship. Два майора's video of a lightweight military vehicle suggests specialized reconnaissance or transport elements. Оперативний ЗСУ video from "Birds of Madyar" confirms UA targeting of RF personnel on this axis. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows a Russian soldier committing suicide, indicating RF personnel operating under extreme duress. Операция Z reports RF Army developing offensive between Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk, reinforcing this MLCOA (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts updated maps of "Krasnoarmeyskoye Direction" showing RF control zones and advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Воин DV posts video claiming artillery of the 1198th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 35th Army Group "Vostok" is destroying enemy strongpoints and fortifications on the South Donetsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for drone footage, MEDIUM for specific unit and target claims). Tactical maps for Druzhkivka direction indicate continued RF presence and focus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports RF assault from 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade claiming close combat in Novoekonomicheskoye, with UA forces fleeing. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim). TASS reports that Russian forces bypassed UA positions from the flanks to enter Zeleni Hay, Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF Claim) UPDATE: Colonelcassad posts drone footage showing a BMP-1TS, identified as Ukrainian, detonating after hitting a mine and catching fire in Razino, DNR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts videos of deceased soldiers, including an apparent suicide, suggesting continued RF casualties and low morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Colonelcassad indicates that the islands on the Dnieper River near Kherson are a significant threat to the UAF, implying continued RF pressure and successful operations there. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • UPDATED: WarGonzo provides updated front summaries for Donetsk and Pokrovsk directions, with maps. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: Zvиздец Мангусту reports that the situation on the Pokrovsk direction is intensely escalating. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF advance near Stepnohirsk and claimed capture of Plavni by RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kharkiv: "North" group maintaining pressure, utilizing FAB-3000 M-54 UMPK. Continued drone and missile attacks on Kharkiv city and oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 map indicates ongoing RF presence and activity in the Kharkiv direction. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAVs from eastern Kharkiv Oblast are active. RBC-Україна reports enemy strike drones entering from eastern Kharkiv Oblast, confirming continued aerial threats. TASS reports that Ukrainian Armed Forces Command is redeploying reserves to Melove (Харьковская область) in an attempt to contain the Russian offensive. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim) UPDATE: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports tactical aviation activity in the North-Eastern direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports tactical aviation activity in the North-Eastern direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims RF destroyed UA ammunition depots in the Kharkiv area. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim).
  • NEW: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports that 3 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes over the past day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Zaporizhzhia: Offensive operations reported towards Stepnohirsk. Persistent shelling of Orikhiv and Huliaippole directions. Z Komitet + карта СВО maps show RF activity near Plavni and Kamenka. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video shows close contact with an RF assault group, implying continued ground presence and offensive intent. Colonelcassad map on Stepnohirsk direction confirms continued RF offensive focus here. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade engaged RF small assault groups and motorcyclists, indicating specific RF tactics for this axis. Alex Parker Returns confirms assault on Stepnohirsk using small infantry groups and FPV drones, with reduced artillery use. MoD Russia video on demining in Zaporizhzhia confirms presence and engineering activity. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posted an aerial video showing combat activity near a railway and body of water. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video confirms RF 7th Guards Air Assault Division personnel operating in Zaporizhzhia direction and requiring drones/Starlink, implying supply chain issues for critical equipment. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms RF presence and combat in Orikhiv direction. Оперативний ЗСУ reports explosions in Zaporizhzhia city and PPO active (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV heading for Zaporizhzhia (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • New reports from 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 and Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine indicate an aviation munitions threat for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: Air raid warning for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). WarGonzo provides updated front summary for Zaporizhzhia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Sumy/Kursk/North Slobozhansky: Continued probing and assault attempts. Indications of RF units retreating from Kindrativka and deteriorating situation near Alekseevka. Renewed drone threats. Claimed strike on UA FOB near Mohrytsia. RF continues drone attacks, with a recent strike on a civilian bus in Yunakivska community resulting in fatalities. Threat of strike UAVs for Chernihiv Oblast from the northeast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs in eastern Sumy Oblast moving south, indicating ongoing drone threats. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also reports groups of enemy UAVs expected from the southeast, impacting Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava. Оперативний ЗСУ video from Zheleznogorsk shows internal friction involving an SVO participant. Colonelcassad reports capture of four Ukrainian military personnel near Demidovka, Belgorod Oblast, claiming infiltration attempt (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim). Videos show identified UA soldiers from 225th Regiment and 39th Brigade (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAVs from Sumy and Chernihiv regions moving southwest (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: TASS reports that representatives of the 61st Mechanized Brigade of the AFU, which lost combat effectiveness, left Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the command of the 61st Mechanized Brigade of the AFU fled Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim)
  • NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian SOF collecting trophies and radio stations from liquidated RF troops in Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Север.Реалии reports 3 fatalities in Sumy Oblast due to RF attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Control Measures:
  • Ukraine-wide Air Alert: Full country air raid declared due to MiG-31K launch. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Kyiv Air Alert: Air raid alert declared for Kyiv due to MiG-31K launch. Fast-moving target on Kyiv. Renewed explosions and PPO activity in Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). NEW: Air raid alert for Kyiv lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Air raid alert for Kyiv reactivated. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Regional Air Alerts: Starokostiantyniv under threat of RF strike UAVs. Threat of strike UAVs for Volyn, Rivne, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Pavlohradskyi and Samarivskyi districts (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). UAVs detected moving towards Myrhorod, Poltava, and Dykanka. Groups of Shaheds from Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. High-speed missiles detected in Southern Chernihiv Oblast, targeting Vinnytsia Oblast, and Cherkasy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • UPDATED: Odboi (all clear) for air alerts across Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: The Ukrainian Air Force has cleared the threat from the MiG-31K. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.4. Previous Operational Picture Recap (From 13 MAY 2024 Report)

• The previous report focused on the initiation of a new, major cross-border offensive by a newly identified "Northern Group of Forces" into northern Kharkiv Oblast, specifically targeting Vovchansk and Lyptsi. This was characterized as a significant strategic shift with tactical surprise.
• Intensified fixing operations and heavy electronic warfare (EW) were observed across the Eastern front (Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut axes) to pin Ukrainian reserves and disrupt C2, enabling the main Kharkiv effort.
• The threat level to Kharkiv city was elevated to CRITICAL.
• Key intelligence gaps included the precise strength and composition of the "Northern Group of Forces," their ultimate operational objectives (buffer zone vs. Kharkiv encirclement), and the effectiveness of Ukrainian countermeasures.
• MLCOA predicted RF consolidation in the "grey zone" and securing Vovchansk/Lyptsi as forward operating bases, while MDCOA predicted rapid exploitation towards Kharkiv city for an artillery siege.
• Recommendations focused on immediate reserve redeployment to Kharkiv, ISR prioritization, counter-EW deployment, and maintaining high alert on Eastern axes.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Air/Missile/UAV: RF maintains high capability for widespread and targeted missile and UAV strikes, including Shaheds and GABs (FAB/KAAB). Evidence suggests continued, albeit contested, effectiveness of Shahed attacks on critical infrastructure and urban areas. The FAB-3000 M-54 UMPK deployment in Lyptsi (Kharkiv) demonstrates a continued escalation in the use of heavy glide bombs. Colonelcassad's animated strike scheme video visually confirms the wide array of munitions and target areas. RF also claiming successful strikes on UA FOBs (e.g., Mohrytsia, Sumy). RF claims of shooting down large numbers of UA UAVs (72 today, 51 in Leningrad, 7 overnight) suggest continued active air defense, though these numbers are likely exaggerated. The confirmed casualties in Leningrad Oblast due to drone attacks indicate UA's ability to penetrate RF air defenses. ASTRA reports RF MoD claimed 72 drones shot down today. ASTRA reports a man injured by FPV drone in Belgorod. Операция Z reports RF is expanding drone production in Alabuga, indicating increased manufacturing capability. «Зона СВО» video confirms the presence of downed DJI Mavic series drones, which could be RF reconnaissance or modified strike platforms. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" video shows a drone falling over Odesa, suggesting RF drone vulnerabilities. Colonelcassad's Ka-52 video demonstrates an anti-drone variant, showcasing RF adaptation to UAV threats. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS warns of probable strategic aviation sorties, indicating continued long-range strike capability. Два майора's post indicates RF channels are concerned about UA nocturnal air activity, implying UA also has significant aerial capabilities. Information on 4 Tu-95MS, 4 Tu-22M3, 3 Tu-160, and 8 MiG-31K aircraft being ready for combat use, with particular attention for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and STERNENKO confirm Tu-95MS strategic aviation take-offs (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts satellite imagery confirming significant expansion of drone production in Alabuga (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Николаевский Ванёк reports an increased number of Russian strategic aviation aircraft in the air (now 6), implying heightened air threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports possible take-off of RF strategic aviation (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z reports RF strategic aviation (Tu-95/22) is en route to Ukraine, with dozens of strike drones also inbound (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This confirms widespread, simultaneous aerial threats. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports pre-launch maneuvers of first two Tu-160 strategic bombers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF milblogger states "We will finish off the chubby air defense now, and the strategists will begin to improve our negotiating positions," implying strategic bomber strikes after degrading UA air defenses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Strike UAV threat for Starokostiantyniv and Kropyvnytskyi confirmed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • 12 "mopeds" approaching Starokostiantyniv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • 10 "mopeds" around Starokostiantyniv, with 5 more flying from Vinnytsia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF has launched cruise missiles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • First missiles in Pryluky area, heading towards Poltava Oblast. More missiles also detected with same course, then towards Cherkasy Oblast. All missiles currently heading towards/through Zolotonosha/Cherkasy. High-speed missile targeting Cherkasy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • High-speed missile detected in Southern Chernihiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • High-speed missile targeting Vinnytsia Oblast and another on the border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblasts, moving west. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF tactical aviation active in Eastern direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UPDATE: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports tactical aviation activity in the North-Eastern direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports tactical aviation activity in the North-Eastern direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New report from Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine indicates a threat of aviation munitions for Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi district) Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New report of enemy aerial attacks overnight in Xmelnytska Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports 3 UAVs were shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: ТАСС reports RF PVO forces destroyed four Ukrainian UAVs over Rostov Oblast overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports 7 enemy UAVs destroyed overnight by RF PVO forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: Оперативний ЗСУ reports 5 casualties, including a child, in Darnitsky district, Kyiv, from a UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: STERNENKO reports 8 casualties, including a 3-year-old child, in Kyiv's Darnitsky district due to a night RF attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: MiG-31K aircraft airborne, capable of Kinzhal missile launch, nationwide alert. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kinzhal launches towards Starokostiantyniv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Fast moving targets on Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytska Oblast, and Kyiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad reports "Night missile arrivals" over Kam'yans'ke. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: Colonelcassad posts an enemy-attributed map of night strikes by RF on Ukraine (28.07.2025), indicating RF's perceived success in widespread targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Three MiG-31K reported airborne. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: TASS reports RF used "Geran-2" (Shahed) to strike a UA unit position on Khortytsia Island. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Fast-moving target detected in Chernihiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Fast-moving target detected in Zhytomyr Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Fast-moving target detected in Khmelnytska Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ground Forces: RF ground forces demonstrate persistent offensive pressure, particularly on the Pokrovsk (Donetsk) axis, aiming for operational encirclement (CONFIDENCE: HIGH), as supported by recent maps. They are adapting tactics, employing smaller, more agile assault groups (e.g., Chasiv Yar, Zaporizhzhia with motorcycles). Alex Parker Returns' report on Stepnohirsk confirms this tactic, highlighting a claimed reduction in heavy artillery use to avoid "negative imagery." However, the large-scale armored assault near Vuhledar and the recently repelled mechanized assault by the 54th Mechanized Brigade highlight persistent weaknesses in combined arms coordination for larger formations. The presence of "penal battalions" (e.g., from Kherson report) indicates continued reliance on non-traditional recruitment to sustain combat power. The use of ATVs by a patrol (Воин DV video) suggests small-unit mobility in rough terrain. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ thermal drone footage suggests continued RF surveillance and targeting of UA military assets. Воин DV video showing destroyed Ukrainian column (MaxxPro, Humvee, pickups) indicates RF anti-armor capability and successful engagements. Colonelcassad's aid collection efforts for "assault troops" in DNR reinforce the continued importance of ground offensive capabilities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video shows direct close-quarters combat with an RF assault group, demonstrating continued RF ground pressure. The use of motorcycles by RF assault groups is a distinct tactical adaptation. Alex Parker Returns' report on Stepnohirsk details this trend in Kupiansk, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia directions. Два майора's video of a lightweight military vehicle further demonstrates tactical adaptations. MoD Russia's video on demining in Zaporizhzhia confirms presence and engineering activity. Старше Эдды's report on "Shturm" heavy assault robotic complexes indicates RF's intent to introduce advanced ground combat systems. Colonelcassad's videos depicting captured Ukrainian soldiers near Demidovka, Belgorod Oblast, suggest RF maintains capabilities for border interdiction and intelligence gathering (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z reports RF Army developing offensive between Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk, reinforcing this MLCOA (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z posts video of the "Shturm" robotic complex working, confirming its existence and testing (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора posts a military recruitment advertisement, indicating continued efforts to recruit ground forces (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Воин DV posts video claiming artillery of the 1198th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 35th Army Group "Vostok" is destroying enemy strongpoints and fortifications on the South Donetsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for unit/location). The tactical maps from Военкор Котенок on the Druzhkivka direction indicate continued tactical planning and likely C2 for local operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports RF assault from 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade claiming close combat in Novoekonomicheskoye, with UA forces fleeing. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim). TASS reports that Russian forces bypassed UA positions from the flanks to enter Zeleni Hay, Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF Claim) UPDATE: Colonelcassad posts drone footage showing a BMP-1TS, identified as Ukrainian, detonating after hitting a mine and catching fire in Razino, DNR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts videos of deceased soldiers, including an apparent suicide, suggesting continued RF casualties and low morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Colonelcassad indicates that the islands on the Dnieper River near Kherson are a significant threat to the UAF, implying continued RF pressure and successful operations there. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • TASS reports a tank with improvised anti-drone protection (rebar cage) withstood approximately eight hits from UA shells. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) This indicates RF continues to adapt ground vehicles with improvised armor.
  • UPDATED: Рыбарь provides an updated front summary. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). WarGonzo provides updated front summaries for Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Pokrovsk directions, with maps. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: Colonelcassad posts video of the 16th Separate Special Forces Brigade destroying a T-72M tank with a Lancet loitering munition in the Serebryansky forestry area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Zvиздец Мангусту reports that the situation on the Pokrovsk direction is intensely escalating. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: TASS reports that representatives of the 61st Mechanized Brigade of the AFU, which lost combat effectiveness, left Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim)
  • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF advance near Stepnohirsk and claimed capture of Plavni. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian SOF collecting trophies and radio stations from liquidated RF troops in Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a video about "evacuation equals mobilization", likely a propaganda piece about UA mobilization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Electronic Warfare (EW): The most significant adaptation is the marked increase in the effectiveness and deployment of EW systems, particularly around key offensive targets like Chasiv Yar, directly impacting UA UAS reconnaissance and FPV drone operations. This suggests a concerted effort to counter Ukraine's drone advantage.
• Naval: Russia continues to project naval power through exercises ("July Storm") and commissioning of new assets, reflecting a long-term strategic focus on maritime capabilities. The conversion of naval infantry brigades into divisions suggests an intention to enhance offensive amphibious/coastal strike power. Putin being awarded the "For Loyalty to the Russian Fleet" medal underscores the high-level focus on naval power. Naval celebrations (Dvа майора video, Fighterbomber photos, Басурин о главном photos, Старше Эдды historical posts) confirm high command emphasis on this branch. Fighterbomber's observation on naval terms transferring to aviation reflects a continued strong naval identity. Colonelcassad's Ka-52 video demonstrates air-to-air combat capability. Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages on Russian Navy Day, including historical naval illustrations, a naval officer, and an event poster, primarily focused on celebrating naval heritage and projecting strength. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for propaganda intent, LOW for direct military relevance). Colonelcassad posts a photo message depicting a Russian naval ship, text suggests it is the Baltic Fleet. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for propaganda intent, LOW for direct military relevance beyond general naval activity).
  • Colonelcassad posts video of a mobile air defense pickup truck being tested by Black Sea Fleet (BFF) personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: Басурин о главном posts photos reinforcing messaging for "Navy Day". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: Fighterbomber posts morale-boosting photo message "Good morning, country!". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: Fighterbomber posts general commentary on "author's program," which is likely related to internal military-media discussions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Diplomatic/Influence Operations: TASS video of Matviyenko arriving in Geneva demonstrates Russia's ability to conduct high-level diplomatic engagements despite sanctions. WarGonzo's internal discussion on naval capabilities indicates an attempt to shape domestic views on defense strategy. The blocking of WhatsApp and unregistered VPNs (Colonelcassad, Оперативний ЗСУ) highlights RF's capability to impose significant internal information control, though TASS contradicted this claim as a "dubious hoax." This conflicting information suggests a complex and fluid internal messaging strategy. TASS claims provocations against Russian fencers in Georgia are orchestrated from Kyiv. Alex Parker Returns' various posts, including those on "Rusich," reflect their continued information warfare. Colonelcassad's unusual post of a pro-Ukrainian recruitment video may be a form of counter-intelligence or a hack, but requires monitoring. Воин DV's historical post about Lviv's liberation aims to evoke historical narratives for current propaganda. TASS reports on the start of online voting applications in Russia, indicating the ability to manage internal political processes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF milblogger criticism of Russian tourists vacationing in Turkey due to Turkey's supply of Bayraktar drones to Ukraine, indicating internal geopolitical friction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS's posts on school uniform pricing indicate intent to address domestic concerns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF police in Khabarovsk Krai recruiting suggests internal mobilization efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • TASS reports Crocus City Hall terrorists were armed with at least 59 magazines for three Kalashnikov rifles. This indicates a high level of preparation for their internal security threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: ТАСС reports one of the Crocus City Hall attackers reconnoitered the venue hours before the concert. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • TASS reports US administration will assist in peaceful settlement of border conflict between Cambodia and Thailand, per Marco Rubio. This indicates an RF intent to highlight US involvement in other conflicts, potentially to dilute focus on Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Colonelcassad posts a video featuring a former US Green Beret detailing alleged war crimes and indiscriminate fire by IDF against unarmed Palestinian civilians. This is likely an RF information operation aimed at diverting attention from Ukraine and discrediting Western allies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: TASS reports the first direct flight from Moscow to Pyongyang has landed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: TASS reports Russia is expanding logistics links with North Korea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: TASS reports Crocus City Hall terrorists received training in Turkey. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports Roscosmos will test reusable rocket stages in the next 1.5-2 years. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports accomplices in the Crocus City Hall attack planned to blow up an entertainment complex in Kaspiysk, Dagestan. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: ТАСС reports Marine Le Pen stated the US-Brussels trade deal is a fiasco for Europe. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: РБК-Україна reports Orban criticized the new EU seven-year budget as living in "fantasies". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: Полиция Хабаровского края video indicates ongoing law enforcement operations related to financial fraud. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: Новости Москвы reports a "Shrek" character will have a cartoon. This is irrelevant to military intelligence. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
  • NEW: Новости Москвы reports a unified register of dog breeders will be created in Russia, a civilian development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Операция Z posts a photo message from Военкоры Русской Весны showing Marine Le Pen's criticism of the EU-US trade deal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Операция Z posts on North Korea choosing Russia over dialogue with US/SK. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: TASS reports Seoul intends to continue efforts to ease tensions with North Korea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Intentions:
  • Primary Objective (Donetsk/Pokrovsk): The most apparent intention is to continue advancing on the Pokrovsk axis, aiming for a semi-encirclement or full capture of the city, likely as a key step towards deeper penetration into Donetsk Oblast. Recent map updates confirm this focus.
  • Chasiv Yar: To capture Chasiv Yar, likely to secure a dominant position for further advances towards Kramatorsk-Sloviansk.
  • Strategic Attrition & Civilian Disruption: Continue to degrade Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure through persistent missile, GAB, and UAV strikes across the depth of Ukraine. RF claims of disrupting logistics in Kupiansk indicate efforts to hinder UA defensive capabilities. Targeting civilian transport (bus in Sumy) indicates an intention to terrorize civilian populations and disrupt normal life. Colonelcassad's animated strike scheme confirms this widespread targeting. Dvа майора's commentary on "paralysis of civilian logistics" aligns with this intent. Targeting civilian transport (bus in Sumy) indicates an intention to terrorize civilian populations and disrupt normal life. Colonelcassad's animated strike scheme confirms this widespread targeting. Dvа майора's commentary on "paralysis of civilian logistics" aligns with this intent. RF efforts to portray UA as shelling civilians in Yablonovka (Два майора video) underscore their intent to shift blame and delegitimize UA actions. Alex Parker Returns' report on Stepnohirsk, claiming reduced artillery use to avoid "negative imagery" and accusing UA of using human shields, indicates an intent to control narrative while still advancing. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS warning of Tu-95/22 sorties indicates RF intent for deep strikes. НгП раZVедка's inflammatory post about Kyiv also suggests an intent to psychologically target the capital. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Widespread and simultaneous strategic aviation and drone strikes are intended tonight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF milblogger states intent to use strategics after degrading UA AD. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF intent to target Starokostiantyniv and Kropyvnytskyi with strike UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF intent to continue missile attacks across multiple oblasts, including Poltava, Cherkasy, and Vinnytsia, and to continue drone attacks on Starokostiantyniv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New report from Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine indicates a threat of aviation munitions for Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi district) Oblasts, implying RF intent to continue deep strikes in these areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF intends to sustain aerial attacks on Xmelnytska Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: RF intends to use MiG-31K, capable of Kinzhal launches, to sustain missile danger across Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: RF intends to use "Geran-2" (Shahed) to strike UA unit positions, as seen on Khortytsia Island. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Maintain Pressure on Borders: Sustain cross-border attacks and limited ground activity in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts to fix UA forces and prevent redeployment to other axes. DeepState confirms RF attempts to enter Kupiansk from the northwest. TASS reports RF is attempting to contain Ukrainian reserve redeployments to Melove, Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim)
• Domestic Messaging: Utilize Navy Day celebrations and military exercises, along with public appearances and propaganda, to project strength and competence internally, despite significant losses. Igor Artamonov's video on support for heroes and Воин DV's recruitment video also contribute to this. Старше Эдды's historical posts serve this purpose. RF's public engagement with youth (ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ video of Volodin) indicates efforts to influence future generations. Глеб Никитин's public cultural events project normalcy. Colonelcassad's interview with a soldier further aims to boost morale. Воин DV's historical post about Lviv's liberation aims to evoke historical narratives to justify current actions. The TASS contradiction on WhatsApp blocking may be an internal political strategy. TASS reports on online voting applications supports the narrative of a functioning state. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' propaganda post "А кому сейчас легко?" ("Who has it easy now?") indicates an acknowledgement of domestic hardship, potentially to foster resilience or acceptance of current conditions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS posts on school uniform pricing indicate intent to address domestic concerns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF police in Khabarovsk Krai recruiting suggests internal mobilization efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • TASS reports Crocus City Hall terrorists were armed with at least 59 magazines for three Kalashnikov rifles. This indicates a high level of preparation for their internal security threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: ТАСС reports one of the Crocus City Hall attackers reconnoitered the venue hours before the concert. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • TASS reports US administration will assist in peaceful settlement of border conflict between Cambodia and Thailand, per Marco Rubio. This indicates an RF intent to highlight US involvement in other conflicts, potentially to dilute focus on Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Colonelcassad posts a video featuring a former US Green Beret detailing alleged war crimes and indiscriminate fire by IDF against unarmed Palestinian civilians. This is likely an RF information operation aimed at diverting attention from Ukraine and discrediting Western allies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: TASS reports the first direct flight from Moscow to Pyongyang has landed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: TASS reports Russia is expanding logistics links with North Korea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: TASS reports Crocus City Hall terrorists received training in Turkey. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports Roscosmos will test reusable rocket stages in the next 1.5-2 years. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports accomplices in the Crocus City Hall attack planned to blow up an entertainment complex in Kaspiysk, Dagestan. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: Басурин о главном posts photos reinforcing messaging for "Navy Day". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: Fighterbomber posts morale-boosting photo message "Good morning, country!". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: Новости Москвы reports a unified register of dog breeders will be created in Russia, a civilian development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Операция Z posts a photo message from Военкоры Русской Весны showing Marine Le Pen's criticism of the EU-US trade deal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a video about "evacuation equals mobilization", framing UA mobilization negatively. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Information Control: Actively control the information environment regarding military operations and their impact within Russia, as evidenced by Colonelcassad's post about prohibiting filming AD systems and drone impacts, and the conflicting information on the blocking of WhatsApp/VPNs. Старше Эдды's dismissal of Madyar's claim as "PR" also fits this. Basurin's radio broadcast and Воин DV's morale video are examples of continued internal messaging efforts. RF's immediate narrative around the Yablonovka shelling (Два майора) shows an adaptive and quick response in information warfare. The conflicting statements on blocking WhatsApp and unregistered VPNs effective August 1st (Colonelcassad and Оперативний ЗСУ claiming block, TASS denying) indicate a potential internal struggle or deliberate disinformation around this significant internal control measure. Alex Parker Returns' posts aimed at demeaning UA personnel underscore RF's continued intent to use dehumanizing propaganda. Рыбарь's video and commentary on Turkish Bayraktar drones and Russian tourism in Turkey indicate a coordinated effort to control information on geopolitical issues for a domestic audience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • TASS reports on the Crocus City Hall investigation, details indicate RF intent to leverage internal security threats for political gain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UPDATE: TASS reports Crocus City Hall terrorists received training in Turkey, indicating an intent to link terrorism to international actors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: ТАСС reports one of the Crocus City Hall attackers reconnoitered the venue hours before the concert. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Colonelcassad posts a video featuring a former US Green Beret detailing alleged war crimes and indiscriminate fire by IDF against unarmed Palestinian civilians. This is likely an RF information operation aimed at diverting attention from Ukraine and discrediting Western allies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Colonelcassad issues a warning to Ukrainian citizens of an impending, unspecified major attack, likely an information operation to induce panic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports accomplices in the Crocus City Hall attack planned to blow up an entertainment complex in Kaspiysk, Dagestan, indicating an intent to reinforce the threat of internal terrorism to domestic audiences. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: RF internal channels (Fighterbomber, ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ) continue to push morale-boosting messages. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Diplomatic Engagement: Russia seeks to maintain a presence on the international diplomatic stage, as evidenced by Matviyenko's visit to Geneva. Deepening non-Western alliances, as demonstrated by the direct flight to Pyongyang, is also a key intent. Colonelcassad's posts on Macron's statements show RF's engagement with Western diplomatic positions.
  • TASS reports US administration will assist in peaceful settlement of border conflict between Cambodia and Thailand, per Marco Rubio. This indicates an RF intent to highlight US involvement in other conflicts, potentially to dilute focus on Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: TASS reports the first direct flight from Moscow to Pyongyang has landed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: TASS reports Russia is expanding logistics links with North Korea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: TASS reports Crocus City Hall terrorists received training in Turkey, which could be used to put diplomatic pressure on Turkey. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: ТАСС reports one of the Crocus City Hall attackers reconnoitered the venue hours before the concert. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports Roscosmos will test reusable rocket stages in the next 1.5-2 years. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a video about "evacuation equals mobilization", used to discourage UA mobilization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: TASS reports Seoul intends to continue efforts to ease tensions with North Korea, reflecting a diplomatic development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Courses of Action (COAs):
  • COA 1 (Most Likely): Continued high-intensity offensive operations on the Pokrovsk axis with sustained GAB and EW support, attempting to consolidate gains and semi-encircle Pokrovsk. This will involve sustained ground assaults supported by heavy GAB strikes and concentrated EW to suppress UA drone activity. RF maps indicate a continued focus on consolidating recent gains around Myrolyubovka. Alex Parker Returns' report on Stepnohirsk tactics suggests a widespread adoption of FPV drones and small infantry groups, potentially reducing heavy artillery use to manage public perception, which is likely to be replicated on the Pokrovsk axis. RF will continue to use lightweight vehicles for reconnaissance/transport on this axis. The introduction of "Shturm" robotic complexes is a potential, albeit likely limited, future component. Операция Z reports RF Army developing offensive between Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk, reinforcing this MLCOA (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Renewed request for support for Pokrovsk suggests continued heavy fighting (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Artillery of the 1198th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 35th Army Group "Vostok" will continue to support offensive operations on the South Donetsk direction (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Continued RF ground pressure on the Druzhkivka direction is expected. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports RF contract soldiers involved in close combat in Novoekonomicheskoye, with UA forces fleeing. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim). RF will continue to attempt flanking maneuvers in Donetsk Oblast, as seen in Zeleni Hay. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim) UPDATE: RF forces will continue to target Ukrainian BMPs with drone-assisted strikes following mine detonations in Razino, DNR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • COA 2 (Less Likely, but possible): After failed large-scale armored assaults (e.g., Vuhledar, Siversk), RF may shift to more infantry-centric probing attacks on secondary axes, combined with continued long-range strikes and EW. This would aim to conserve armor and personnel while still fixing UA forces. This COA is less likely to be adopted as a primary approach given the current momentum and stated objectives on Pokrovsk, but elements may be observed if significant setbacks occur. The use of small groups and motorcycles in Zaporizhzhia (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) and the reported tactics in Stepnohirsk (Alex Parker Returns) could be examples of this adaptation becoming more prevalent. Given the confirmed strategic aviation take-offs and inbound drones, an immediate, multi-axis deep strike campaign is now a highly likely and more dangerous component of the current RF COA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Increased EW Effectiveness: The most significant adaptation is the marked increase in the effectiveness and deployment of EW systems, particularly around key offensive targets like Chasiv Yar, directly impacting UA drone operations. This suggests a concerted effort to counter Ukraine's drone advantage.
• FAB-3000 M-54 UMPK Deployment: The operational deployment of the FAB-3000 in Lyptsi indicates Russia's commitment to using increasingly destructive glide bombs to level fortified positions.
• Re-evaluation of Large-Scale Armored Assaults: The decisive defeat of the Vuhledar armored assault and the repelled Siversk/unspecified eastern mechanized assault (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video) likely reinforces a re-evaluation of such large-scale, high-risk operations. This may lead to a temporary reduction in these tactics, potentially favoring more dispersed infantry attacks supported by heavy fire, although large mechanized attacks still occur as seen in the 54th Mechanized Brigade video. The Воин DV video showing a destroyed Ukrainian column may be used as counter-narrative of RF success. Alex Parker Returns' commentary on reduced heavy artillery use in urban assaults (Stepnohirsk) indicates a deliberate tactical adaptation to reduce collateral damage imagery.
• Unit Reorganization (Naval Infantry): The reported plan to convert naval infantry brigades into divisions suggests a long-term strategic adaptation to increase the combat power and doctrinal flexibility of these units, potentially for future amphibious or coastal operations.
• Increased Internal Information Control: RF is actively seeking to control the narrative by issuing warnings against filming military incidents, indicating an adaptation to public information dissemination. Старше Эдды's dismissal of Madyar's claim as "PR" also fits this. Basurin's radio broadcast and Воин DV's morale video are examples of continued internal messaging efforts. RF's immediate narrative around the Yablonovka shelling (Два майора) shows an adaptive and quick response in information warfare. The conflicting statements on blocking WhatsApp and unregistered VPNs effective August 1st (Colonelcassad and Оперативний ЗСУ claiming block, TASS denying) indicate a potential internal struggle or deliberate disinformation around this significant internal control measure.
• Kupiansk Logistics Targeting: RF's claimed disruption of logistics in Kupiansk suggests an adaptive focus on interdicting UA supply lines, likely using precision strikes and possibly enhanced reconnaissance. DeepState confirms RF attempts to enter Kupiansk from the northwest.
• Targeting Civilian Transport: The strike on a bus in Sumy Oblast indicates a willingness to directly target civilian transport to inflict casualties and instill fear.
• Use of Motorcycles in Assaults: The confirmed use of motorcycles by small RF assault groups in Zaporizhzhia (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) indicates an adaptation for rapid infiltration and maneuver in certain terrain, potentially to bypass obstacles or overwhelm forward positions quickly. This tactic is now explicitly mentioned by Alex Parker Returns as part of assaults in Stepnohirsk, Kupiansk, and Sumy.
• Aggressive Drone Attacks on RF Interior: The large-scale and casualty-inflicting drone attack on Leningrad Oblast (Операция Z, TASS) demonstrates an escalation in UA's deep strike capabilities against RF territory. Continued drone strikes in Belgorod (ASTRA) also show continued reach. STERNENKO's video of pontoon bridge destruction highlights UA's long-range drone/precision strike capability.
• Expansion of Drone Production: RF's reported expansion of its drone production facility in Alabuga signifies a strategic adaptation to scale up combat drone manufacturing, likely to sustain or increase the tempo of UAV strikes. Alex Parker Returns posts satellite imagery confirming this expansion (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Anti-Drone Helicopters: The appearance of an anti-drone Ka-52 helicopter armed with "Igla-S" missiles (Colonelcassad) indicates RF's tactical adaptation to counter UA's increasing drone threat.
• Robotic Ground Systems: The reported observation of "Shturm" heavy assault robotic complexes at Uralvagonzavod test site (Старше Эдды) indicates RF's long-term tactical adaptation towards integrating uncrewed ground vehicles into offensive operations. Операция Z posts video of the "Shturm" robotic complex working, confirming its existence and testing (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Escalated Aerial Strike Readiness: The reported readiness of multiple strategic aviation assets (Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, Tu-160, MiG-31K) indicates a tactical adaptation towards large-scale, deep strikes across Ukraine, increasing pressure on Ukrainian air defenses. Inbound Shahed drones towards Kyiv (Colonelcassad, РБК-Україна) and other regions (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) confirms continued adaptation for widespread aerial attacks. Confirmed Tu-95MS strategic aviation take-offs (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO) indicate an immediate escalation of deep strike capability (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Additional strike UAV threats reported for Mykolaiv Oblasts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). НгП раZVедка's inflammatory post suggests continued focus on Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z reports RF strategic aviation (Tu-95/22) is en route to Ukraine, with dozens of strike drones also inbound (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This confirms widespread, simultaneous aerial threats for tonight. New threat of strike UAVs for Pavlohradskyi and Samarivskyi districts, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports pre-launch maneuvers of two Tu-160 strategic bombers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF milblogger states intent to use strategics after degrading UA AD. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Colonelcassad posts video of a mobile air defense pickup truck being tested by Black Sea Fleet (BFF) personnel. This indicates RF continues to adapt air defense for mobile engagements, particularly for naval assets or coastal defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RBC-Ukraine reports Macron promised Zelenskyy to increase pressure on Russia, indicating a diplomatic adaptation in Western support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Colonelcassad posts video of "Geranium" (Shahed) strikes in the Savinyon settlement, near the Brewery in Odesa. This indicates continued, successful targeting by RF drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF has launched cruise missiles, indicating a continued use of high-value munitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF tactical aviation active in Eastern direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UPDATE: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports tactical aviation activity in the North-Eastern direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports tactical aviation activity in the North-Eastern direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF is attempting to contain Ukrainian reserve redeployments to Melove, Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim)
  • UPDATE: Direct flight from Moscow to Pyongyang indicates a new logistical and diplomatic link for Russia, a significant adaptation in its foreign policy and sustainment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: TASS reporting that Crocus City Hall terrorists received training in Turkey implies RF's attempt to use internal security incidents to shift blame or influence international perceptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: ТАСС reports one of the Crocus City Hall attackers reconnoitered the venue hours before the concert. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Colonelcassad indicates that the islands on the Dnieper River near Kherson are a significant threat to the UAF, implying continued RF pressure and successful operations there. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • New report from Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine indicates a threat of aviation munitions for Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi district) Oblasts, a tactical adaptation in targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports Roscosmos will test reusable rocket stages in the next 1.5-2 years. While civilian, this demonstrates RF's commitment to and progress in rocket technology, which has dual-use applications and implies a long-term strategic adaptation in space capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports PVO forces repelled a UAV attack in two cities and one district of Rostov Oblast, indicating continued RF adaptation to defense against UAVs in depth. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: ТАСС reports RF PVO forces destroyed four Ukrainian UAVs over Rostov Oblast overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports accomplices in the Crocus City Hall attack planned to blow up an entertainment complex in Kaspiysk, Dagestan. This suggests RF is adapting by highlighting internal security threats and their prevention, potentially to justify increased security measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • TASS reports a tank with improvised anti-drone protection (rebar cage) withstood approximately eight hits from UA shells. This indicates a tactical adaptation in vehicle protection by RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New report of enemy aerial attacks overnight in Xmelnytska Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports 3 UAVs were shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight. This shows successful adaptation to air defense by UA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: Оперативний ЗСУ reports 5 casualties, including a child, in Darnitsky district, Kyiv, from a UAV attack. This is a continued tactical adaptation by RF to target civilian areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: STERNENKO reports 8 casualties, including a 3-year-old child, in Kyiv's Darnitsky district due to a night RF attack. This reinforces RF's adaptation to targeting civilian areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: MiG-31K aircraft airborne, capable of Kinzhal missile launch, nationwide alert. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kinzhal launches towards Starokostiantyniv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Fast moving targets on Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytska Oblast, and Kyiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad reports "Night missile arrivals" over Kam'yans'ke. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: STERNENKO reports a UAV from Belarus was detected near Vilnius, Lithuania, indicating a new tactical adaptation for border probing or reconnaissance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on three MiG-31Ks in the air, indicating a persistent tactical adaptation for air-launched threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: TASS reports RF used "Geran-2" (Shahed) to strike a UA unit position on Khortytsia Island, indicating tactical adaptation of loitering munitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Ammunition & Fuel: Still assessed as sufficient to support current operational tempo, including high rates of artillery and GAB employment. However, the confirmed damage to railway infrastructure in Volgograd due to UAV debris could impact long-term rail logistics if sustained, especially for the southern axes. TASS and ASTRA confirm restoration of train movement in Volgograd, indicating rapid repair capabilities or minor impact. Colonelcassad's aid collection for "Kezzo Diesel" (fuel) confirms ongoing, localized logistical needs. Alex Parker Returns' claim of reduced heavy artillery use in urban assaults might indicate a change in tactics, but not necessarily a shortage, as it's linked to an "image" concern. STERNENKO's claim of pontoon bridge destruction is a new indicator of UA efforts to disrupt RF logistics.
• Personnel: Continued reliance on recruitment from correctional facilities (penal battalions, as highlighted by ASTRA's court report) and high-paying contracts (military recruitment ads - Dvа майора video, Воин DV video) suggests ongoing challenges in traditional recruitment and voluntary enlistment. This points to a reliance on quantity over quality for front-line personnel. The medical video showing skull trauma (Colonelcassad) highlights the ongoing severity of casualties. Igor Artamonov's video on social services for heroes indicates an emphasis on post-service care, likely to encourage recruitment and maintain morale. Colonelcassad's aid collections for "assault troops" in DNR reinforce the continued importance of ground offensive capabilities. Рыбарь's post on declining birth rates points to a long-term demographic challenge for RF. Colonelcassad's interview with a soldier highlights efforts to address morale directly. The video from Zheleznogorsk showing internal violence involving an SVO participant suggests potential for increased social unrest and discontent stemming from military personnel. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing a Russian soldier committing suicide on the Pokrovsk direction indicates extreme psychological stress and likely high casualties among RF personnel. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video confirms RF 7th Guards Air Assault Division personnel operating in Zaporizhzhia direction and requiring drones/Starlink, implying supply chain issues for critical equipment. Colonelcassad's videos of captured Ukrainian soldiers, including personal details, are used to undermine morale and showcase RF success in interdicting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' propaganda post "А кому сейчас легко?" ("Who has it easy now?") indicates an acknowledgement of domestic hardship, potentially to foster resilience or acceptance of current conditions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports on RF military personnel recruitment for service in the Internal Affairs bodies, suggesting efforts to backfill security forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • TASS reports Crocus City Hall terrorists were armed with at least 59 magazines for three Kalashnikov rifles. This indicates a high level of preparation for their internal security threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • TASS reports a captured serviceman from the Ukrainian 156th Brigade, Alexander Mamchur, claims that TCC employees mobilized five residents of Ukraine at once as they were returning from work, taking their phones. This is a propaganda piece focused on portraying forced mobilization by UA, which could generate sympathy internally and deter UA mobilization. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim)
  • New report from TASS (citing Marochko) claims almost 3,900 casualties (killed and wounded) for Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries on the LPR front over the past week. This claim, if accurate, would reflect a significant drain on UA personnel resources, which aligns with RF propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
  • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's new post titled "Airborne Brotherhood, good morning!" is a morale-boosting message, suggesting internal efforts to maintain personnel morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: TASS reports that representatives of the 61st Mechanized Brigade of the AFU, which lost combat effectiveness, left Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the command of the 61st Mechanized Brigade of the AFU fled Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video showing paratroopers from the 7th Airborne Division appealing for donations for a drone and Starlink, highlighting ongoing logistical needs for specific equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Materiel: The observed destruction of 12-15 armored vehicles near Vuhledar and recent losses in Siversk (118th Mechanized Brigade, 54th Mechanized Brigade) indicates significant localized materiel loss. Overall RF production and stockpiles appear sufficient to replace losses for the current intensity of conflict. Continued appeals for drones by RF units indicate localized deficiencies in specific equipment. Colonelcassad's aid requests for "body armor, helmets, medical supplies" confirm direct materiel needs for frontline personnel. Воин DV video showing a destroyed Ukrainian column is used by RF to showcase UA materiel losses. WarGonzo's discussion on the Russian Navy (Admiral Kuznetsov) indicates continued high-level strategic focus on long-term materiel development. Операция Z's report on Alabuga expansion suggests a concerted effort to increase drone materiel. Старше Эдды's report on "Shturm" robotic complexes indicates investment in future ground combat materiel. Colonelcassad's drone video showing an RF strike resulting in a Ukrainian BMP's ammunition explosion further indicates RF capability to destroy UA materiel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for full identification). UPDATE: Colonelcassad posts drone footage showing a BMP-1TS, identified as Ukrainian, detonating after hitting a mine and catching fire in Razino, DNR. This suggests continued RF focus on attriting UA armored vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) * TASS reports a tank with improvised anti-drone protection (rebar cage) withstood approximately eight hits from UA shells. This suggests RF is investing in and adapting vehicle protection materiel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) * Colonelcassad's videos and photos of the new "Shturm" robotic complex confirm RF's focus on developing and potentially deploying advanced ground materiel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) * NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video showing a convoy of Russian KAMAZ water trucks, indicating logistical support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Infrastructure: Naval exercises and commissioning indicate continued investment in naval forces, despite security concerns leading to the cancellation of the Navy Day parade in St. Petersburg, implying a degree of vulnerability to UA maritime drone attacks. The public unveiling of a naval commander bust suggests a focus on military heritage and internal morale.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• Tactical Level: The Vuhledar failure and the repelled Siversk/unspecified eastern mechanized assault (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) point to persistent issues in tactical-level combined arms coordination, suggesting that while specific units may perform well, large-scale complex operations remain a challenge for RF forces. However, the claimed strike on a UA FOB in Sumy (Mohrytsia) by "Voenkor Kotenok" suggests effective targeting and intelligence at the tactical level. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video shows close-quarters combat, where individual soldier actions are critical, implying tactical C2 may be less centralized in such engagements. The use of motorcycles in assault groups may also indicate a tactical adaptation to improve speed and C2 at a very low level. Alex Parker Returns' report on Stepnohirsk indicates a top-down tactical C2 decision to reduce heavy artillery use in urban areas for propaganda reasons. Два майора's video of a lightweight military vehicle further demonstrates tactical adaptations. MoD Russia's video on demining highlights organized engineering support. Colonelcassad's Ka-52 video and description demonstrate effective command of air assets in anti-drone operations. Старше Эдды's report on "Shturm" robotic complexes indicates long-term tactical C2 over new technology deployment. Colonelcassad's report of captured Ukrainian soldiers and their identification suggests effective tactical intelligence and C2 for border security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Операция Z reports RF Army developing offensive between Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk, implying cohesive tactical C2 for ground operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Воин DV posts video claiming artillery of the 1198th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 35th Army Group "Vostok" is destroying enemy strongpoints and fortifications on the South Donetsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for unit/location). The tactical maps from Военкор Котенок on the Druzhkivka direction indicate continued tactical planning and likely C2 for local operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports RF contract soldiers involved in close combat in Novoekonomicheskoye, with UA forces fleeing, suggesting effective tactical leadership. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim). TASS reports that Russian forces bypassed UA positions from the flanks to enter Zeleni Hay, Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF Claim) UPDATE: Colonelcassad posts drone footage showing a BMP-1TS, identified as Ukrainian, detonating after hitting a mine and catching fire in Razino, DNR, indicating effective tactical C2 for combined arms (mine warfare and drone strike). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Colonelcassad posts video of a mobile air defense pickup truck being tested by Black Sea Fleet (BFF) personnel. This indicates RF tactical C2 in adapting air defense for mobile engagements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Colonelcassad indicates that the islands on the Dnieper River near Kherson are a significant threat to the UAF, implying continued RF pressure and successful operations there, suggesting effective local RF C2. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • New report from TASS (citing Marochko) claims almost 3,900 casualties (killed and wounded) for Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries on the LPR front over the past week. This claim, if accurate, would reflect effective RF tactical C2 in inflicting attrition. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
  • TASS reports a tank with improvised anti-drone protection (rebar cage) withstood approximately eight hits from UA shells. This suggests effective tactical C2 in implementing field modifications and utilizing them in combat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Colonelcassad's videos and photos of the new "Shturm" robotic complex demonstrate RF tactical C2 in testing and potentially deploying new systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦's post about a Ukrainian spokesman opening a "terrible secret" implies some internal C2 issue or perceived misstep in Ukrainian information efforts. (CONFIDENCE: LOW for "terrible secret", HIGH for internal C2 dynamics).
  • UPDATE: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports 3 UAVs were shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight. This reflects effective tactical C2 in air defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: Оперативний ЗСУ reports 5 casualties, including a child, in Darnitsky district, Kyiv, from a UAV attack. This is a tactical setback for RF as the attack resulted in civilian casualties, potentially boosting UA morale and international condemnation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: STERNENKO reports 8 casualties, including a 3-year-old child, in Kyiv's Darnitsky district due to a night RF attack. This also reflects a tactical setback for RF's C2 in preventing civilian casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Zvиздец Мангусту reports that the situation on the Pokrovsk direction is intensely escalating, suggesting RF is coordinating increasing pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad posts video of the 16th Separate Special Forces Brigade destroying a T-72M tank with a Lancet loitering munition in the Serebryansky forestry area, indicating effective tactical C2 for precision strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian SOF collecting trophies and radio stations from liquidated RF troops in Sumy Oblast, indicating successful tactical engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Poddubny posts a video about "evacuation equals mobilization", which is a hybrid C2 effort to influence perceptions of UA mobilization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Operational/Strategic Level: Putin's continued public appearances (Kronstadt, naval exercises, medal ceremony), coupled with official statements from MoD Russia and TASS, indicate centralized strategic command and control. The decision to cancel the Navy Day parade due to security concerns and the public recognition of the "Admiral Grigorovich" commander reflect a pragmatic adaptation to perceived threats, indicating a functional C2 decision-making process. Alex Parker Returns' video commentary and Kotsnews' "RENDEZVOUS" event indicate a continued focus on public relations and shaping opinion from the RF side. Старше Эдды's commentary on Madyar's claims shows a direct C2 effort in information warfare. Matviyenko's presence at an international conference also highlights strategic diplomatic C2. The direct flight to Pyongyang indicates strategic C2 in developing non-Western alliances. The conflicting statements regarding the blocking of WhatsApp/VPNs (TASS vs. other RF sources) indicate a potential lack of fully unified C2 on this specific internal information control measure, or a deliberate attempt to create confusion. Colonelcassad's posts on Macron's statements also show strategic C2 reacting to international pressure. Operatsiya Z's report on Alabuga expansion indicates strategic industrial C2. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS warning of strategic aviation sorties demonstrates the strategic C2 capability for long-range strikes. Colonelcassad posted the Russian Ministry of Defense daily summary, indicating centralized reporting. TASS reports on the start of online voting applications, indicating centralized C2 for internal political processes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Widespread, simultaneous strategic aviation and drone strikes are currently inbound, indicating unified strategic C2 for multi-domain operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS's posts on school uniform pricing indicate centralized C2 on addressing domestic social issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF milblogger states intent to use strategics after degrading UA AD, implying centralized C2 for integrated air operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Операция Z reports Zelenskyy wants European representatives, not just Trump and Erdogan, at a meeting with Putin. This indicates a strategic C2 effort by Ukraine in shaping international diplomatic engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: Direct flight from Moscow to Pyongyang indicates a new logistical and diplomatic link for Russia, representing strategic C2 in developing non-Western alliances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: TASS reporting that Crocus City Hall terrorists received training in Turkey implies a strategic C2 decision to leverage internal security incidents for diplomatic messaging, possibly to discredit Turkey or justify operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: ТАСС reports one of the Crocus City Hall attackers reconnoitered the venue hours before the concert, indicating strategic C2 for pre-operational planning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports Roscosmos will test reusable rocket stages in the next 1.5-2 years. This indicates a strategic C2 decision to invest in advanced aerospace technology with potential dual-use applications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports accomplices in the Crocus City Hall attack planned to blow up an entertainment complex in Kaspiysk, Dagestan, indicating strategic C2 in leveraging internal security threats for political gain and counter-terrorism efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • TASS reports on the operational details from the 110th Brigade, 51st Guards Combined Arms Army, which points to a centralized reporting structure for ground forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ and ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reporting enemy losses with consistent figures indicates a centralized system for battle damage assessment and public information release, suggesting effective C2 in these areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: ТАСС reports Marine Le Pen stated the US-Brussels trade deal is a fiasco for Europe. This reflects RF's strategic C2 in amplifying divisive political narratives in Western countries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: РБК-Україна reports Orban criticized the new EU seven-year budget as living in "fantasies". This is also a strategic C2 opportunity for RF to highlight divisions within the EU. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: Полиция Хабаровского края video indicates ongoing law enforcement operations related to financial fraud. This reflects RF's strategic C2 in addressing internal crime and projecting law and order. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: Новости Москвы reports a "Shrek" character will have a cartoon. This is irrelevant to military intelligence. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
  • NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts photos of Ukrainian personnel, which is a strategic C2 effort for morale/recruitment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: TASS reports Seoul intends to continue efforts to ease tensions with North Korea, which is a strategic C2 decision on a geopolitical issue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Hybrid Operations: The combination of traditional military operations with EW and information campaigns (e.g., RF milbloggers contradicting UA AD claims, new prohibitions on filming AD systems, rapid dissemination of narratives such as the Yablonovka shelling, propaganda imagery by Alex Parker Returns) indicates a coordinated multi-domain C2. The deliberate targeting of civilian logistics (Dvа майора) also demonstrates integrated hybrid operations. The "Rusich" propaganda by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС highlights the extreme elements of RF hybrid warfare. The internal contradiction on WhatsApp/VPN blocking could be a deliberate hybrid tactic to create uncertainty and test public reaction. НгП раZVедка's inflammatory post about Kyiv also falls into this category. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Рыбарь's video and commentary on Turkish Bayraktar drones and Russian tourism in Turkey indicate a coordinated effort to control information on geopolitical issues for a domestic audience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Colonelcassad posts a video featuring a former US Green Beret detailing alleged war crimes and indiscriminate fire by IDF against unarmed Palestinian civilians. This is likely an RF information operation aimed at diverting attention from Ukraine and discrediting Western allies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Colonelcassad issues a warning to Ukrainian citizens of an impending, unspecified major attack, likely part of an information operation to induce panic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a video about "evacuation equals mobilization", which is a hybrid operation aimed at discouraging UA mobilization and internal messaging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts general information, likely part of internal communication efforts. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - no content)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Defensive Posture: UAF maintains a resilient defensive posture across most axes, effectively repelling numerous RF assaults daily (e.g., Sumy, Kherson, Pokrovsk, Siversk, and the recent large-scale mechanized assault). DShV photos demonstrate well-equipped, professional personnel, indicative of sustained readiness. Operatyvnyi ZSU's report on the wounded scout emphasizes the continued readiness of reconnaissance units. The 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade's successful defense against small RF assault groups, including those on motorcycles (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS), highlights strong tactical readiness. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ photos celebrating Medical Worker's Day reinforce readiness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms "Freedom of Russia Legion" fighting effectively in Orikhiv direction, suggesting UA can integrate volunteers into defensive efforts. Ukraine suspending CFE treaty obligations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RBC-Ukraine posts photo message highlighting Poland strengthening NATO's Eastern Shield with US support, indirectly reinforcing the broader deterrence posture that benefits Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RBC-Ukraine posts photo of soldiers in military vehicles, suggesting continued readiness and operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Операция Z reports Zelenskyy wants European representatives, not just Trump and Erdogan, at a meeting with Putin, indicating Ukraine's diplomatic readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukrainian FPV drone operators effectively engaging a Russian vehicle, demonstrating continued tactical effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ and ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reporting enemy losses with consistent figures indicates a robust and centralized assessment capability, reflecting good overall readiness in intelligence reporting and battle damage assessment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: Олександр Вілкул reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of 280433Z JUL 25, reflecting local readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 08:00 28.07.2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ posts photo and video messages showing civilians sheltering in Kyiv metro stations overnight, indicating civilian readiness for air attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a morale-boosting photo message with a morning greeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a call for donations for "morning espresso for the soldiers," indicating continued support and morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video for "Minute of Silence," commemorating fallen defenders, reinforcing readiness through collective memory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими posts about the Day of Remembrance of those tortured or killed in captivity, reinforcing resilience through remembrance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts photos of Ukrainian personnel, likely for morale-boosting or recruitment purposes, indicating readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo message commemorating the fallen, reinforcing morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Air Defense: UAF air defense demonstrates high effectiveness against RF UAVs (94% interception rate), particularly in urban areas like Odesa, though heavy mixed missile/drone attacks continue to inflict damage. The STERNENKO report of the 1129th ZRP shooting down two "Gerbera" UAVs reinforces this capability. STERNENKO's post on "anti-aircraft FPVs" indicates innovative, albeit likely experimental, approaches to air defense. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF launched drones from 5 locations, supporting widespread attacks. PPO active in Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" video suggests a possible UA AD success. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports ongoing liquidation of enemy drones. RBC-Ukraine reinforces these AD successes. PPO actively working in Kyiv Oblast against inbound drones (РБК-Україна). Successful interception of UAVs is reported for Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Rivne and Kyiv Oblasts, with a specific UAV in Dnipropetrovsk reported moving northwest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). PPO reports for Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, and Mykolaiv Oblasts confirm active AD posture (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). PPO working in Pavlohradskyi and Samarivskyi districts, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicates continued PPO readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Renewed explosions and PPO activity in Kyiv confirms continued readiness to engage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) As of 280150Z JUL 25, the air raid alert for Kyiv city has been lifted, indicating successful AD activity or cessation of threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kirovohrad Oblast Military Administration confirms enemy drone attack on Kropyvnytskyi was repelled. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) * PPO working in Starokostiantyniv and Kropyvnytskyi against inbound UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) * Starokostiantyniv "started spoiling the furrow" indicating active engagement and defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) * Continued air defense activity against multiple "mopeds" near Starokostiantyniv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) * "Mopeds" neutralized near Kropyvnytskyi. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) * Missiles and "mopeds" neutralized. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) * Air Force of Ukraine warns of threat, indicating continued vigilance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UPDATE: Air Force issues general warning (0236Z). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) * Air Force of Ukraine reports high-speed missile targeting Cherkasy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) * Air Force of Ukraine reports high-speed missile detected in Southern Chernihiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) * High-speed missile targeting Vinnytsia Oblast and another on the border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblasts, moving west. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) * New report of enemy aerial attacks overnight in Xmelnytska Oblast implies continued AD success in repelling attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) * UPDATE: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports 3 UAVs were shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) * UPDATED: Air raid alerts across Ukraine due to MiG-31K launches. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Fire liquidation continues in Kirovohrad Oblast after night RF attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). * NEW: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that the threat of MiG-31K has been cleared. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) * NEW: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports the air raid alert in Kyiv has been lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) * NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports air raid alerts lifted across multiple oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) * NEW: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with engagement efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Drone Capabilities: Ukrainian forces continue to effectively employ drones for reconnaissance, strike (FPV, GABs), and tactical engagements. However, the increasing effectiveness of RF EW systems on key axes (Chasiv Yar) presents a new and significant challenge to UA drone dominance. Demand for 1000 interceptor drones per day (Zelenskyy statement) and incoming AI-powered drone strike kits suggest an adaptive and innovative approach to maintaining drone superiority. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts on "Enemy UAV Novelties" suggest RF is aware of new UA drone developments, indicating UA innovation. STERNENKO's video of pontoon bridge destruction highlights UA's long-range drone/precision strike capability. Оперативний ЗСУ's drone footage further confirms UA drone capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ video from "Birds of Madyar" confirms UA drone targeting effectiveness. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦's video also touches on the effectiveness of certain UA actions, possibly related to drones. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows "Birds of Madyar" drone operation. Ukrainian FPV drone operators effectively engaging a Russian vehicle, demonstrating continued tactical effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: STERNENKO initiates a fundraising drive for a "rusorez" (likely a tactical knife for combat). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian SOF collecting trophies including a radio station from liquidated RF troops in Sumy Oblast, indicating successful anti-reconnaissance or anti-sabotage operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Offensive Capabilities: Limited local offensive actions have been observed (e.g., Zaporizhzhia, Sumy), indicating capacity for tactical counter-attacks and consolidation of positions. RBC-Ukraine posted "epic video" of Kindrativka liberation, confirming offensive success.
• Logistics & Sustainment: Dependence on foreign military aid for advanced systems (Patriot, AI-powered drones) remains critical. Domestic production of explosives is scaling up, indicating efforts towards self-sufficiency. Appeals for Starlink and drones by UA units (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video) suggest ongoing resource requirements at the tactical level. Crowdfunding efforts for supplies like "mud tires" (Шеф Hayabusa) and fundraising lotteries (STERNENKO for a knife) indicate ongoing tactical logistical support needs. The theft of a UAZ vehicle destined for the front (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) highlights a challenge in securing and delivering even basic supplies. Mykolaivskiy Vanok's fundraising for the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade further demonstrates ongoing needs. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦's photo of a financial transaction indicates continued crowdfunding. RBC-Ukraine's report on Ohmatdit hospital restoration indicates efforts to maintain civilian infrastructure that supports the population. Bell Helicopters' planned investment, while significant, highlights a long-term strategic requirement for domestic defense production capacity to reduce reliance on foreign aid (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора's fundraising for "Frontline Armor" for UA forces underscores general equipment needs (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Николаевский Ванёк reports successful closure of a fundraising campaign for the 47th Brigade, indicating effective and timely public support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a call for donations for "morning espresso for the soldiers," indicating ongoing grassroots support for basic needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video showing paratroopers from the 7th Airborne Division appealing for donations for a drone and Starlink, highlighting specific sustainment needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Training & Morale: Continued training efforts for assault troops ("Skala") indicate ongoing force generation and skill development. Celebration of Medical Worker's Day (Оперативний ЗСУ, КМВА, Zaporizhzhia ODA, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Zelenskyy's official channel) and showcasing military training efforts to foster national pride and combat spirit. Historical and cultural content (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) also contributes to this. The DShV (Air Assault Forces) public messaging emphasizes teamwork ("coordinated team wins"), bolstering unit cohesion and morale. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦's memorial video reinforces UA patriotic and memorial themes. Oleksandr Vilkul's briefing on Kryvyi Rih infrastructure reflects local government resilience. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video featuring Russian volunteers fighting for Ukraine reinforces their motivation.
  • NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video for "Minute of Silence," commemorating fallen defenders, reinforcing morale through collective memory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими posts about the Day of Remembrance of those tortured or killed in captivity, reinforcing morale through remembrance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts photos of Ukrainian personnel, likely for morale-boosting or recruitment purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo message commemorating the fallen, reinforcing morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:
  • Vuhledar: Decisive defeat of a large-scale RF armored assault, inflicting significant materiel and personnel losses (12-15 armored vehicles). This demonstrates effective UA anti-tank and combined arms defense.
  • Sumy: Liberation of Kindrativka by 225th Separate Assault Battalion, eliminating 3 RF battalions and 1 battalion commander. Ongoing assault on Oleksiyivka. RBC-Ukraine confirms liberation of Kindrativka. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms Kindrativka liberation. RBC-Ukraine "epic video" of Kindrativka combat.
  • Zaporizhzhia: Successful local offensive by 1st Assault Battalion of 210th Separate Assault Regiment. 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade successfully repelled "several massive assaults" by small RF assault groups, including those on motorcycles, south of Zaporizhzhia. This is a significant defensive success. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms "Freedom of Russia Legion" fighting effectively in Orikhiv direction.
  • UAV Interception: Continued high rates of successful interception of RF UAVs across various oblasts, particularly Odesa. Confirmed by STERNENKO's report of "Gerbera" shoot-downs. PPO active in Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" video suggests a possible UA AD success against an RF drone over Odesa. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports ongoing liquidation of enemy drones. RBC-Ukraine reinforces these AD successes. PPO actively working in Kyiv Oblast against inbound drones (РБК-Україна). Successful interception of UAVs is reported for Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Rivne, and Kyiv Oblasts, with a specific UAV in Dnipropetrovsk reported moving northwest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). PPO active for Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv and Volyn Oblasts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). PPO working in Pavlohradskyi and Samarivskyi districts, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicates continued success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Renewed explosions and PPO activity in Kyiv confirms continued readiness to engage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) As of 280150Z JUL 25, the air raid alert for Kyiv city has been lifted, indicating successful AD activity or cessation of threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kirovohrad Oblast Military Administration confirms enemy drone attack on Kropyvnytskyi was repelled. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • PPO working in Starokostiantyniv and Kropyvnytskyi against inbound UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Starokostiantyniv "started spoiling the furrow" indicating active engagement and defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Continued air defense activity against multiple "mopeds" near Starokostiantyniv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • "Mopeds" neutralized near Kropyvnytskyi. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Missiles and "mopeds" neutralized. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Air Force of Ukraine warns of threat, indicating continued vigilance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UPDATE: Air Force issues general warning (0236Z). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Air Force of Ukraine reports high-speed missile targeting Cherkasy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Air Force of Ukraine reports high-speed missile detected in Southern Chernihiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • High-speed missile targeting Vinnytsia Oblast and another on the border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblasts, moving west. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • New report of enemy aerial attacks overnight in Xmelnytska Oblast implies continued AD success in repelling attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports 3 UAVs were shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATED: Air raid alerts across Ukraine due to MiG-31K launches. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Fire liquidation continues in Kirovohrad Oblast after night RF attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • NEW: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that the threat of MiG-31K has been cleared. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • NEW: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports the air raid alert in Kyiv has been lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports air raid alerts lifted across multiple oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • NEW: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts with engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk: Successful strike on RF HQ in Donetsk (Zasyadko mine).
  • Siversk/Eastern Axis: 54th Mechanized Brigade and 81st Airmobile Brigade repelled a massed mechanized assault, inflicting significant losses on RF armored vehicles and personnel (Operatyvnyi ZSU video, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video).
  • Pokrovsk: 118th Mechanized Brigade repelled a mechanized assault, destroying a tank, two BMPs, and four other vehicles/carriers, eliminating 38 RF personnel.
  • Anti-Corruption Reforms: Zelenskyy signing laws on ARMA reform and factoring (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) indicates progress on addressing international concerns, which may unblock aid.
  • Sanctions: Ukraine's increased sanctions pressure on RF military-industrial complex (DeepState) represents a continued economic offensive.
  • Drone Strikes on RF Territory: The successful drone attack on Leningrad Oblast, causing casualties and disruption, demonstrates UA's ability to conduct effective deep strikes. Drone strike in Belgorod (ASTRA) also shows continued reach. STERNENKO's video of pontoon bridge destruction highlights UA's long-range drone/precision strike capability.
  • Industrial Partnerships: Bell Helicopters' plan to invest in Ukrainian production signals a significant long-term success for Ukraine's defense industrial base (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • CFE Treaty Suspension: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ukraine is suspending its obligations under the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This is a significant diplomatic and strategic move.
  • Fundraising Success: Николаевский Ванёк reports successful closure of a fundraising campaign for the 47th Brigade, indicating effective and timely public support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Ukrainian FPV drone operators effectively engaging a Russian vehicle, demonstrating continued tactical effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • RBC-Ukraine posts photo message highlighting Poland strengthening NATO's Eastern Shield with US support, indicating continued NATO deterrence posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Операция Z reports Zelenskyy wants European representatives, not just Trump and Erdogan, at a meeting with Putin, indicating a preference for broader international engagement on peace talks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • RBC-Ukraine reports Macron promised Zelenskyy to increase pressure on Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ and ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reporting enemy losses with consistent figures indicates a centralized system for battle damage assessment and public information release, representing a success in transparent reporting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: Олександр Вілкул reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of 280433Z JUL 25, which reflects successful local control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATED: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 08:00 28.07.2025, which reflects successful operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports air raid alerts lifted across multiple oblasts, confirming successful AD or threat cessation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian SOF collecting trophies and radio stations from liquidated RF troops in Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Setbacks:
  • EW Impact: Significant degradation of UA UAS operations due to enhanced RF EW capabilities on the Chasiv Yar axis. This is a critical tactical setback requiring immediate counter-measures.
  • Civilian Casualties & Infrastructure Damage: Continued high number of civilian casualties and destruction of residential and commercial infrastructure across multiple oblasts (Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Cherkasy, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Xmelnytska) from RF strikes. Dnipropetrovsk ODA (ОВА) photo messages confirm recent civilian injuries and damage. ASTRA reports civilian fatality in Kherson due to shelling. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Operatyvnyi ZSU confirm a bus with civilians hit in Sumy, resulting in 3 fatalities and approximately 20 injured. This is a severe civilian setback. RBC-Ukraine confirms 20 injured in Sumy bus attack. Два майора's footage from Yablonovka claiming UA shelling of civilians highlights the ongoing human cost, irrespective of attribution. ASTRA and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS's photos of the damaged bus visibly reinforce the severity of the attack. Explosion reported in Kyiv city. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Civilian fatality in Balta, Odesa Oblast, due to a tree falling, indicates continued general risk to civilian life. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video depicting significant smoke plumes from Pokrovsk, implying continued damage or combat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ posts two photo messages (likely duplicate) about a passenger train derailment in Germany, potentially used to draw parallels or show humanitarian concerns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Darnitsky district residential building windows blown out by explosion in Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UPDATE: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms 5 casualties in Darnitsky district, 1 child among them, with 4 hospitalized, underscoring civilian impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Eight casualties in Darnitsky district, Kyiv, from RF attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Loud explosions heard in Kyiv due to missile activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Xmelnytska Oblast attacked by enemy aerial vehicles overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: Оперативний ЗСУ reports 5 casualties, including a child, in Darnitsky district, Kyiv, from a UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: STERNENKO reports 8 casualties, including a 3-year-old child, in Kyiv's Darnitsky district due to a night RF attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATED: Air raid alerts for Kyiv due to MiG-31K launch will increase anxiety. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shows photos/videos of damaged apartment building in Kyiv after RF attack, used to highlight RF aggression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad reports "Night missile arrivals" over Kam'yans'ke, which can cause public anxiety. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • NEW: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports that 3 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes over the past day, contributing to public anxiety. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • NEW: RBC-Ukraine posts photo message confirming fire liquidation continues in Kirovohrad Oblast after night RF attack, indicating ongoing hardship for civilians. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ posts photo and video messages showing civilians sheltering in Kyiv metro stations overnight, directly illustrating public response to threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • NEW: ASTRA reports two casualties in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast due to RF attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • NEW: Север.Реалии reports 3 fatalities in Sumy Oblast due to RF attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • NEW: RBC-Ukraine posts video of damaged apartment building in Kyiv following night RF attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pokrovsk Axis Penetration: Partial enemy penetration between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, and RF intent to semi-encircle Pokrovsk, represents a concerning development, further confirmed by updated RF maps. TASS claims to have bypassed UA positions to enter Zeleni Hay, Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim) UPDATE: Colonelcassad posts drone footage showing a BMP-1TS, identified as Ukrainian, detonating after hitting a mine and catching fire in Razino, DNR. This indicates a loss of UA armored vehicle and personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Logistics Interdiction (Kupiansk): RF claims of successful targeting of Ukrainian logistics in Kupiansk, if accurate, represent a significant operational challenge for sustaining forces in that sector. DeepState reports RF attempts to enter Kupiansk from the northwest.
    • UPDATED: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims RF destroyed UA ammunition depots in the Kharkiv area. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim).
  • Vehicle Losses: Воин DV video showing a destroyed Ukrainian column (MaxxPro, Humvee, pickups) indicates recent significant materiel losses for UAF, though location is unspecified. Colonelcassad's drone video showing an RF strike resulting in a Ukrainian BMP's ammunition explosion further indicates RF capability to destroy UA materiel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, MEDIUM for full identification).
  • Sumy FOB Strike: RF claim of a successful strike on a UA 80th ODShBr FOB near Mohrytsia, Sumy Oblast, if accurate, represents a tactical loss.
  • EU Aid Freeze: The freezing of €1.5 billion in EU aid (Операция Z, ASTRA) represents a significant financial setback, albeit tied to a correctable condition (anti-corruption reforms). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 confirms the EU aid freeze.
  • Wounded Personnel: Operatyvnyi ZSU's report on the wounded scout (Murchyk) underscores the ongoing human cost of the conflict, even outside large-scale assaults. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ photos also depict medical care for wounded soldiers.
  • Theft of Military Vehicle: The theft of a UAZ destined for the front (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) indicates internal issues affecting military support.
  • Internal Critique: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦's video discussing internal critique of certain actions highlights potential internal disagreements or challenges within UA's information efforts. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports continued heavy fighting near Pokrovsk and requests support (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Casualties to Infiltrating Forces: Colonelcassad claims capture of four Ukrainian military personnel attempting to infiltrate Belgorod Oblast. If confirmed, this is a tactical setback for UA special operations (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim).
  • Internal Protest: Оперативний ЗСУ posts images of a protest in Kyiv against the law on NABU and SAP, indicating internal political friction during wartime (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts videos of deceased soldiers, including an apparent suicide, suggesting continued RF casualties and low morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukrainian reserve redeployments to Melove, Kharkiv Oblast are reportedly being contained by RF. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim)
  • New report from TASS (citing Marochko) claims almost 3,900 casualties (killed and wounded) for Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries on the LPR front over the past week. This would represent a significant setback for UA. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
  • Colonelcassad indicates that the islands on the Dnieper River near Kherson are a significant threat to the UAF, implying successful RF operations and losses for UA in this area. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦's post about a Ukrainian spokesman opening a "terrible secret" could indicate a setback in Ukrainian information control or messaging. (CONFIDENCE: LOW for "terrible secret", HIGH for information control dynamics).
  • NEW: TASS reports that representatives of the 61st Mechanized Brigade of the AFU, which lost combat effectiveness, left Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the command of the 61st Mechanized Brigade of the AFU fled Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim)
  • NEW: STERNENKO reports a UAV from Belarus was detected near Vilnius, Lithuania, indicating a potential intelligence setback or security breach if UA assets were unable to intercept. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF advance near Stepnohirsk and claimed capture of Plavni, indicating a tactical setback for UA in Zaporizhzhia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Intelligence Gaps - Friendly Forces:
  • Impact of drone losses due to RF EW on UA tactical reconnaissance and strike capabilities on critical axes.
  • Specific details and timelines for incoming AI-powered drone strike kits and their integration into UA forces.
  • Full assessment of the impact of the €1.5 billion EU aid freeze on UA operational capabilities and sustainment.
  • Detailed information on the extent of Bell Helicopters' investment and its impact on UA's defense industrial base.
  • Verification of RF claims about UA force losses or retreats.
  • Impact of internal political protests on UA military effectiveness or public support.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Air Defense Systems: Continued need for advanced air defense systems (Patriots) and interceptor missiles to counter persistent RF air and missile attacks.
• Counter-EW Capabilities: Urgent requirement for effective counter-EW systems and tactics to mitigate the growing threat to UA drone operations, especially on key offensive axes.
• Drones: High demand for FPV and reconnaissance drones (Zelenskyy's call for 1000 interceptor drones per day, appeals from 7th Division - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, 43rd OMBr, 110 OMBr). Incoming AI-powered drone kits will boost strike capabilities. Continued support for crowdfunding efforts for drones and other equipment (STERNENKO, Шеф Hayabusa). ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ's "Enemy UAV Novelties" post indicates a need to stay ahead in drone development. Два майора's fundraising message for "Frontline Armor" for UA forces underscores general equipment needs (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Николаевский Ванёк reports successful closure of a fundraising campaign for the 47th Brigade, indicating effective and timely public support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: STERNENKO initiates a fundraising drive for a "rusorez" (likely a tactical knife for combat), indicating ongoing efforts to equip personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a call for donations for "morning espresso for the soldiers," indicating ongoing grassroots support for basic needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video showing paratroopers from the 7th Airborne Division appealing for donations for a drone and Starlink, highlighting specific resource requirements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Artillery Ammunition: Ongoing need for sustained artillery ammunition supply to maintain fire superiority and support defensive/offensive operations. Alex Parker Returns' report on reduced RF artillery use in urban assaults might indicate an opportunistic reduction, not necessarily a shortage, but UA should be prepared for its resurgence.
• Personnel & Training: Continuous need for force generation and specialized training, especially for assault units and drone operators.
• Logistics: Ensuring secure logistical routes and supplies for frontline units and civilian populations, particularly in areas experiencing infrastructure damage (e.g., water supply in Donetsk Oblast, as noted by Военкор Котенок). The claimed RF targeting of logistics in Kupiansk further exacerbates this constraint. Continued need for crowdfunding for specific tactical equipment, as seen with mud tires (Шеф Hayabusa), and general unit support (Mykolaivskiy Vanok). The direct targeting of civilian transport in Sumy also highlights the need to protect logistics lines for population movement. Preventing theft of military supplies is also a concern.
• Financial Aid: Unlocking the frozen €1.5 billion EU aid is critical for state functions and military sustainment, tied to anti-corruption reforms.
• Industrial Investment: Bell Helicopters' planned investment, while significant, highlights a long-term strategic requirement for domestic defense production capacity to reduce reliance on foreign aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Narratives:
  • Victimhood/Justification: RF milbloggers continue to portray Ukraine as attacking civilians (e.g., bus in Sumy, ambulance in Zaporizhzhia, children's memorial in Donetsk, Leningrad Oblast casualties attributed to "massive attack", Belgorod FPV drone attack, Kaliningrad traffic accident framed as general chaos), aiming to justify their actions and dehumanize Ukrainian forces. Alex Parker Returns' dubious claim about Israel/Iran conflict also fits this pattern of spreading narratives that support RF's broader geopolitical framing. Alex Parker Returns' "Ужас что" posts and "Все хорошо" video appear to be part of this general narrative, though their specific content is unclear without translation. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts image related to "Day of Remembrance for Fallen Children", a clear attempt at emotional manipulation. Dvа майора's message about "paralysis of civilian logistics" directly blames Ukraine for these actions. The drone footage from Yablonovka (Два майора) with text overlays blaming UA for civilian shelling is a prime example of this. Alex Parker Returns' imagery of a damaged boot and "all that's left of the Ukr" is a blatant attempt at dehumanization and demoralization. Alex Parker Returns' report on Stepnohirsk uses the narrative of UA using civilians as human shields to justify RF tactical choices and deflect blame for civilian casualties. TASS claims provocations against Russian fencers in Georgia are orchestrated from Kyiv, attempting to delegitimize UA's international influence. The "Rusich" photo by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is a shocking example of RF-affiliated groups' dehumanizing propaganda. Воин DV's historical post about Lviv aims to evoke historical narratives to justify current actions. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video dedicated to children victims of the war in Donbas, serving as a propaganda piece for justification (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' golf video is an attempt to spread anti-Western sentiment. НгП раZVедка's inflammatory post on Kyiv also fits this pattern. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' propaganda post "А кому сейчас легко?" ("Who has it easy now?") indicates an acknowledgement of domestic hardship, potentially to foster resilience or acceptance of current conditions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS posts on RF military personnel recruitment for service in the Internal Affairs bodies, which could be framed as addressing societal needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • TASS report on captured Ukrainian soldier Sergey Martynyuk's claim of forced mobilization and TCC violence, clearly intended to undermine UA's mobilization efforts and portray them as inhumane. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim)
    • Colonelcassad posts a video featuring a former US Green Beret detailing alleged war crimes and indiscriminate fire by IDF against unarmed Palestinian civilians. This is likely an RF information operation aimed at diverting attention from Ukraine and discrediting Western allies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • New report from TASS (citing Marochko) claiming almost 3,900 casualties for Ukrainian forces on the LPR front is a clear RF propaganda attempt to demoralize UA and demonstrate RF success. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports accomplices in the Crocus City Hall attack planned to blow up an entertainment complex in Kaspiysk, Dagestan. This is likely used to reinforce the narrative of internal threats and state protection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • TASS reports a tank with improvised anti-drone protection withstood approximately eight hits from UA shells. This is a propaganda piece to demonstrate the resilience of RF equipment and personnel against UA attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: ТАСС reports Marine Le Pen stated the US-Brussels trade deal is a fiasco for Europe. This is used by RF to amplify Western divisions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: РБК-Україна reports Orban criticized the new EU seven-year budget as living in "fantasies". This can also be used by RF to highlight EU disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: Полиция Хабаровского края video indicates ongoing law enforcement operations related to financial fraud. This is used by RF to project law and order internally. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: Новости Москвы reports a "Shrek" character will have a cartoon. This is irrelevant to military intelligence. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
    • UPDATED: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims RF destroyed UA ammunition depots in the Kharkiv area, aiming to demoralize UA. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim). Colonelcassad reports "Night missile arrivals" over Kam'yans'ke with visible damage, used to highlight RF strike capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • NEW: TASS reports that representatives of the 61st Mechanized Brigade of the AFU, which lost combat effectiveness, left Sumy. This is an RF propaganda claim aimed at demoralizing UA forces. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
    • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the command of the 61st Mechanized Brigade of the AFU fled Sumy. This is also an RF propaganda claim aimed at demoralizing UA forces. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
    • NEW: Два майора posts a photo message summarizing Rybar's morning report, which is likely from an RF-favorable perspective. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a video about "evacuation equals mobilization", framing UA mobilization negatively. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UA Narratives:
    • RF Attrition/Failures: UAF and affiliated channels emphasize RF losses (e.g., Vuhledar armored column, Kindrativka liberation, repelled Siversk and Pokrovsk mechanized assaults, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video, 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade's successful defense, pontoon bridge destruction, Ukrainian BMP destroyed by RF strike) to boost friendly morale and demonstrate effective defense. STERNENKO's report on UAV shoot-downs reinforces UAF AD success. STERNENKO's "anti-aircraft FPV" post highlights UA innovation. RBC-Ukraine confirms liberation of Kindrativka and shares "epic video." Оперативний ЗСУ's drone footage further confirms UA successes. Оперативний ЗСУ video from "Birds of Madyar" confirms UA drone targeting effectiveness. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦's video also touches on the effectiveness of certain UA actions, possibly related to drones. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows "Birds of Madyar" drone operation. Ukrainian FPV drone operators effectively engaging a Russian vehicle, demonstrating continued tactical effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts videos of deceased Ukrainian soldiers, including one showing apparent suicide by an RF combatant upon drone detection, highlighting RF casualties and potential morale issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ and ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reporting enemy losses with consistent figures is a transparent and effective method of demonstrating RF attrition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian SOF collecting trophies and radio stations from liquidated RF troops in Sumy Oblast, demonstrating UA success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • RF Atrocities/War Crimes: Highlighting civilian casualties and destruction from RF strikes (Dnipropetrovsk ODA, ASTRA, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Operatyvnyi ZSU on Sumy bus, Leningrad Oblast casualties attributed to "massive attack", Balta incident) aims to maintain international sympathy and pressure for aid. Operatyvnyi ЗСУ's report on the wounded scout highlights the human cost on the UA side. RBC-Ukraine's repeated posts on the Sumy bus attack emphasize the emotional impact. ASTRA and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS's photos of the damaged bus visibly reinforce the severity of the attack. The reported "Rusich" photo by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is used to highlight RF atrocities. Explosion reported in Kyiv and warning messages regarding inbound Shaheds underscore continued RF aggression against civilians. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The civilian fatality in Balta, Odesa Oblast, reinforces the general danger. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video depicting significant smoke plumes from Pokrovsk, implying continued damage or combat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ posts two photo messages (likely duplicate) about a passenger train derailment in Germany, potentially used to draw parallels or show humanitarian concerns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Darnitsky district residential building windows blown out by explosion in Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UPDATE: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms 5 casualties in Darnitsky district, 1 child among them, with 4 hospitalized, underscoring civilian impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • Eight casualties in Kyiv's Darnitsky district from RF attack, highlighting human cost. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • Loud explosions heard in Kyiv and missile activity contribute to this narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • Xmelnytska Oblast attacked by enemy aerial vehicles overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • UPDATE: Оперативний ЗСУ reports 5 casualties, including a child, in Darnitsky district, Kyiv, from a UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • UPDATE: STERNENKO reports 8 casualties, including a 3-year-old child, in Kyiv's Darnitsky district due to a night RF attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • UPDATED: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shows photos/videos of damaged apartment building in Kyiv after RF attack, used to highlight RF aggression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad reports "Night missile arrivals" over Kam'yans'ke, which UA can use to highlight civilian targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
      • NEW: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports that 3 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes over the past day, used to highlight RF aggression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • NEW: RBC-Ukraine posts photo message confirming fire liquidation continues in Kirovohrad Oblast after night RF attack, used to highlight the impact of RF aggression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ posts photo and video messages showing civilians sheltering in Kyiv metro stations overnight, directly illustrating public response to threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • NEW: ASTRA reports two casualties in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast due to RF attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • NEW: Север.Реалии reports 3 fatalities in Sumy Oblast due to RF attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • NEW: RBC-Ukraine posts video of damaged apartment building in Kyiv following night RF attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • International Support: Emphasis on incoming military aid and diplomatic engagements (Zelenskyy-von der Leyen call, Trump's statements on Iran/tariffs, but also on Russia) to reinforce the narrative of continued international solidarity. Marco Rubio's statement (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) that Trump no longer trusts Kremlin's willingness to negotiate is a narrative win for Ukraine, suggesting a hardening US stance. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Austria's FM stating Trump was ready to "give" Putin 5 Ukrainian regions, which is a significant diplomatic narrative point for Ukraine. Оперативний ЗСУ and RBC-Ukraine report on the Trump-EU trade deal, which could be framed as a US strategic alignment. STERNENKO also reports on the US-EU trade deal. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reiterates Austria's Foreign Minister's statement on NATO discussion, highlighting potential Western alignment shifts beneficial to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
      • Операция Z reports Zelenskyy wants European representatives, not just Trump and Erdogan, at a meeting with Putin, indicating a preference for broader international engagement on peace talks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • RBC-Ukraine reports Macron promised Zelenskyy to increase pressure on Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Anti-Corruption Pressure: International focus on Ukrainian anti-corruption infrastructure (NABU/SAP reform) remains a key factor in continued financial and political support, as evidenced by the EU's temporary freezing of aid. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 confirms the EU aid freeze, reinforcing this pressure. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's post on Rada's view of US leverage indicates domestic political awareness of these conditions. ASTRA confirms EU aid freeze.
    • Industrial Partnerships: Bell Helicopters' planned investment in Ukrainian industry indicates growing international industrial support for Ukraine's defense (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • CFE Treaty: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ukraine is suspending its obligations under the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This move is likely intended to free Ukraine from limitations on conventional forces, signaling a shift in its international posture.
    • Resilience and Unity: Celebrating national events (Medical Worker's Day - Оперативний ЗСУ, КМВА, Zaporizhzhia ODA, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Zelenskyy's official channel) and showcasing military training efforts to foster national pride and combat spirit. Historical and cultural content (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) also contributes to this. The DShV (Air Assault Forces) messaging emphasizes teamwork ("coordinated team wins"), bolstering unit cohesion and morale. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦's memorial video reinforces national pride and remembrance. Oleksandr Vilkul's briefing on Kryvyi Rih infrastructure reflects local government resilience. RBC-Ukraine reports on Ohmatdit hospital restoration. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video featuring Russian volunteers fighting for Ukraine reinforces the narrative of diverse support for UA. Николаевский Ванёк reports successful closure of a fundraising campaign for the 47th Brigade, indicating effective and timely public support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
      • UPDATE: Олександр Вілкул reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of 280433Z JUL 25, which reinforces UA resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a morale-boosting photo message with a morning greeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a call for donations for "morning espresso for the soldiers," indicating ongoing grassroots support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video for "Minute of Silence," commemorating fallen defenders, reinforcing morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • NEW: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими posts about the Day of Remembrance of those tortured or killed in captivity, reinforcing resilience and morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts photos of Ukrainian personnel, likely for morale-boosting or recruitment purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo message commemorating the fallen, reinforcing morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Internal Political Messaging: Zelenskyy's approval of new NSDC sanctions and discussions on anti-corruption reforms are likely aimed at demonstrating continued governance and addressing international concerns, particularly in response to the EU aid freeze. RBC-Ukraine photo message on anti-corruption scandal indicates a focus on this domestic issue. DeepState's emphasis on sanctions also supports the government's efforts. The reporting on infrastructure projects in Kryvyi Rih (Oleksandr Vilkul) serves to project effective governance and care for civilians. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's post on Rada's view of US leverage indicates domestic political awareness of these conditions. Оперативний ЗСУ posts images of a protest in Kyiv against the law on NABU and SAP, highlighting internal political friction (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Transparency of Challenges: Reports on the theft of the UAZ (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) show a willingness to acknowledge internal challenges, which can build trust. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦's video discussing internal critique of certain actions highlights potential internal disagreements or challenges within UA's information efforts. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 requests support for Pokrovsk, indicating transparency of needs (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukrainian Public:
  • Resilience: Continued resilience despite daily attacks, as evidenced by routine civic life and expressions of national pride.
  • Fatigue/Impact of Attacks: High civilian casualties and infrastructure damage likely contribute to widespread fatigue and hardship, but not yet to a collapse in morale. Continued queues for water in damaged areas (Chystiakove) highlight the humanitarian toll. The attack on the bus in Sumy will likely deepen public anger and resolve, but also increase anxiety about personal safety. RBC-Ukraine's repeated posts on the Sumy bus attack emphasize the emotional impact. ASTRA and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS's photos of the damaged bus visibly reinforce the severity of the attack. The explosion in Kyiv and continued air raid alerts will undoubtedly increase public anxiety and vigilance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The civilian fatality in Balta, Odesa Oblast, reinforces the general danger. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video depicting significant smoke plumes from Pokrovsk, implying continued damage or combat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). New air raid alerts for Rivne and Volyn Oblasts will increase anxiety for populations further west. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Renewed explosions in Kyiv will increase public anxiety. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UPDATE: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms 5 casualties in Darnitsky district, 1 child among them, with 4 hospitalized, increasing public anxiety and anger. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Eight casualties in Kyiv's Darnitsky district from RF attack will increase public anxiety and anger. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Loud explosions heard in Kyiv will further increase public anxiety. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Xmelnytska Oblast attacked by enemy aerial vehicles overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: Оперативний ЗСУ reports 5 casualties, including a child, in Darnitsky district, Kyiv, from a UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: STERNENKO reports 8 casualties, including a 3-year-old child, in Kyiv's Darnitsky district due to a night RF attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATED: Air raid alerts for Kyiv due to MiG-31K launch will increase anxiety. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shows photos/videos of damaged apartment building in Kyiv after RF attack, reinforcing public anxiety. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad reports "Night missile arrivals" over Kam'yans'ke, which can cause public anxiety. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • NEW: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports that 3 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes over the past day, contributing to public anxiety. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • NEW: RBC-Ukraine posts photo message confirming fire liquidation continues in Kirovohrad Oblast after night RF attack, indicating ongoing hardship for civilians. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ posts photo and video messages showing civilians sheltering in Kyiv metro stations overnight, directly illustrating public response to threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • NEW: ASTRA reports two casualties in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast due to RF attack, increasing public anxiety. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • NEW: Север.Реалии reports 3 fatalities in Sumy Oblast due to RF attack, increasing public anxiety. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • NEW: RBC-Ukraine posts video of damaged apartment building in Kyiv following night RF attack, reinforcing public anxiety. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Support for Military: Ongoing appeals for donations for military units and medical support (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, STERNENKO, Mykolaivskiy Vanok, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video) demonstrate continued public backing for the armed forces. The DShV photos and Zelenskyy's visits to medical personnel contribute to a positive perception of military professionalism and care. Operatyvnyi ЗСУ's report on the wounded scout aims to evoke sympathy and highlight the sacrifices. Fundraising efforts for "Frontline Armor" (Два майора) indicate continued public support for military needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Николаевский Ванёк reports successful closure of a fundraising campaign for the 47th Brigade, indicating effective and timely public support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Internal Political Friction: The protests in Kyiv against the law on NABU and SAP (Оперативний ЗСУ) indicate a segment of the population is actively engaged in political opposition, which could impact overall unity, though this is related to anti-corruption reforms and not directly the war effort. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Public/Internal:
  • State-Controlled Narrative Acceptance: General public sentiment likely remains largely shaped by state media, accepting narratives of RF military success and justified actions.
  • Localized Discontent: Reports of low-quality dry rations, mobilization issues, and corruption arrests (ASTRA's court report) suggest underlying, localized discontent within military and civilian spheres. The medical video and recruitment ads suggest ongoing efforts to manage the human cost of the conflict. Colonelcassad's aid collection efforts highlight gaps in official supply chains, which could impact morale. Alex Parker Returns' report on reduced artillery use in urban assaults and the accompanying commentary about "pity" and "blood" suggest internal frustration with perceived restraint. Военкор Котенок's report on water issues in Donetsk also highlights civilian hardship. Рыбарь's post on declining birth rates points to a long-term demographic challenge that could impact future public sentiment. Colonelcassad's interview with a soldier highlights efforts to address morale directly. The video from Zheleznogorsk showing internal violence involving an SVO participant suggests potential for increased social unrest and discontent stemming from military personnel. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing a Russian soldier committing suicide is a powerful indicator of low morale. Alex Parker Returns' propaganda post "А кому сейчас легко?" ("Who has it easy now?") indicates an acknowledgement of domestic hardship, suggesting some internal pressure on morale or sustainment efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports on RF military personnel recruitment for service in the Internal Affairs bodies, which could indicate a need to backfill security forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • TASS report on Crocus City Hall terrorists armed with 59 magazines reinforces internal security threat, potentially increasing public fear and support for state security measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • TASS reports a captured serviceman from the Ukrainian 156th Brigade, Alexander Mamchur, claims that TCC employees mobilized five residents of Ukraine at once as they were returning from work, taking their phones. This is a propaganda piece focused on portraying forced mobilization by UA, which could generate sympathy internally and deter UA mobilization. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim)
    • New report from TASS (citing Marochko) claiming almost 3,900 casualties for Ukrainian forces on the LPR front is a clear RF propaganda attempt to demoralize UA and demonstrate RF success, aiming to boost RF public morale. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports accomplices in the Crocus City Hall attack planned to blow up an entertainment complex in Kaspiysk, Dagestan, likely used to foster public fear and rally support for security services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's new post titled "Airborne Brotherhood, good morning!" aims to boost morale and reinforce solidarity within RF military. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: Полиция Хабаровского края video indicates ongoing law enforcement operations related to financial fraud. This aims to reassure the public about state control over internal security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: Новости Москвы reports a "Shrek" character will have a cartoon. This is irrelevant to military intelligence, but contributes to an image of normalcy for the public. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
    • NEW: TASS reports that representatives of the 61st Mechanized Brigade of the AFU, which lost combat effectiveness, left Sumy. This RF claim aims to impact public morale in Ukraine and reinforce the perception of RF success internally. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
    • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the command of the 61st Mechanized Brigade of the AFU fled Sumy. This also aims to impact public morale in Ukraine and reinforce the perception of RF success internally. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
    • NEW: Новости Москвы reports a unified register of dog breeders will be created in Russia, a civilian development, projecting normalcy and state function. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a video about "evacuation equals mobilization", likely used to fuel anti-mobilization sentiment within UA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Impact of UAV Attacks: Increased UAV attacks on Russian territory (Volgograd, Krasnodar, Rostov, Nevinnomyssk, Tambov, Leningrad, Belgorod) are likely generating concern and possibly impacting perception of security, leading to measures like cancelled parades and increased information control measures. The Volgograd railway infrastructure damage (STERNENKO, ASTRA) highlights real economic and logistical impacts. The completion of search and rescue operations in Saratov after a gas explosion, while not military, adds to a backdrop of internal challenges for RF. Reports of a tourist bus accident in Bashkortostan (TASS) also adds to this general domestic background. ASTRA's report on social spending in Krasnoyarsk may be intended to bolster public morale internally. The casualties in Leningrad Oblast will likely increase public concern about security. Глеб Никитин's public cultural events project normalcy.
  • Navy Day: The celebrations for Navy Day (Старше Эдды, WarGonzo) are intended to boost morale and national pride, diverting attention from other issues.
  • Impact of Censorship: The conflicting reports on the impending blocking of WhatsApp and VPNs (Colonelcassad, Оперативний ЗСУ, TASS) will likely cause confusion and potentially increase dissatisfaction among the population, regardless of the eventual outcome. TASS's posts on school uniform pricing indicate an effort to project the state addressing social welfare concerns, which could positively impact public sentiment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• External Public Sentiment: Alex Parker Returns' golf video with anti-American political caption is an attempt to shape anti-Western sentiment (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Рыбарь's video and commentary on Turkish Bayraktar drones and Russian tourism in Turkey indicate internal criticism of the Russian public's actions, aiming to shape sentiment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RBC-Ukraine posts photo message highlighting Poland strengthening NATO's Eastern Shield with US support, indicating continued NATO deterrence posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Colonelcassad posts a video featuring a former US Green Beret detailing alleged war crimes and indiscriminate fire by IDF against unarmed Palestinian civilians. This is likely an RF information operation aimed at diverting attention from Ukraine and discrediting Western allies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: ТАСС reports Marine Le Pen stated the US-Brussels trade deal is a fiasco for Europe. This reflects RF's attempt to influence European public opinion by highlighting perceived negative impacts of Western alliances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: РБК-Україна reports Orban criticized the new EU seven-year budget as living in "fantasies". This is used by RF to amplify external perceptions of EU disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: STERNENKO reports a UAV from Belarus was detected near Vilnius, Lithuania, which could impact regional stability and international sentiment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Ukraine:
  • Continued Military Aid: US $330M package, German Patriot systems, Lithuanian Patriot funding, and incoming AI-powered drone kits demonstrate continued, though perhaps slower, military support.
  • Diplomatic Engagement: Zelenskyy's call with Ursula von der Leyen highlights ongoing diplomatic efforts to secure further EU integration and sanctions against Russia. Zelenskyy's desire to see more international leaders at peace talks (RBC-Ukraine) indicates continued diplomatic push. Marco Rubio's statement (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) that Trump no longer trusts Kremlin's willingness to negotiate is a narrative win for Ukraine, suggesting a hardening US stance. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Austria's FM stating Trump was ready to "give" Putin 5 Ukrainian regions, which is a significant diplomatic narrative point for Ukraine. Оперативний ЗСУ and RBC-Ukraine report on the Trump-EU trade deal, which could be framed as a US strategic alignment. STERNENKO also reports on the US-EU trade deal. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reiterates Austria's Foreign Minister's statement on NATO discussion, highlighting potential Western alignment shifts beneficial to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Операция Z reports Zelenskyy wants European representatives, not just Trump and Erdogan, at a meeting with Putin, indicating a preference for broader international engagement on peace talks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RBC-Ukraine reports Macron promised Zelenskyy to increase pressure on Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Corruption Pressure: International focus on Ukrainian anti-corruption infrastructure (NABU/SAP reform) remains a key factor in continued financial and political support, as evidenced by the EU's temporary freezing of aid. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 confirms the EU aid freeze, reinforcing this pressure. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's post on Rada's view of US leverage indicates domestic political awareness of these conditions. ASTRA confirms EU aid freeze.
  • Industrial Partnerships: Bell Helicopters' planned investment in Ukrainian industry indicates growing international industrial support for Ukraine's defense (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • CFE Treaty: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ukraine is suspending its obligations under the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This move is likely intended to free Ukraine from limitations on conventional forces, signaling a shift in its international posture.
• Russia:
  • Isolation: Continued international isolation from Western nations. Colonelcassad's posts on Macron's statements about pressuring Russia highlight this ongoing dynamic.
  • Non-Western Alliances: Increased communication and potential cooperation with North Korea (flights, sea links, confirmed first direct flight) signals a deepening of non-Western alliances. UPDATE: TASS reports the first direct flight from Moscow to Pyongyang has landed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Serbia Stance: Serbia's stated refusal to impose sanctions against Russia and commitment to independent foreign policy is a diplomatic win for Russia. Alex Parker Returns' post about Vucic and Kustarica suggests internal political instability in Serbia that could impact its relationship with Russia.
  • Black Sea Region: Russian naval exercises and claims regarding the Black Sea region demonstrate continued intent to project power and assert influence. RF milblogger criticism of Russian tourists vacationing in Turkey due to Turkey's supply of Bayraktar drones to Ukraine, indicating internal geopolitical friction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Diplomatic Engagement: Russia continues to engage on the international diplomatic stage, as shown by Matviyenko's visit to Geneva.
  • TASS reports US administration will assist in peaceful settlement of border conflict between Cambodia and Thailand, per Marco Rubio. This signals a diplomatic effort from the US to address other global conflicts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Colonelcassad posts a video featuring a former US Green Beret detailing alleged war crimes and indiscriminate fire by IDF against unarmed Palestinian civilians. This is likely an RF information operation aimed at diverting attention from Ukraine and discrediting Western allies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: TASS reports Russia is expanding logistics links with North Korea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: TASS reports Crocus City Hall terrorists received training in Turkey, which could be used to put diplomatic pressure on Turkey. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: ТАСС reports one of the Crocus City Hall attackers reconnoitered the venue hours before the concert, indicating Russian efforts to frame events. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports Roscosmos will test reusable rocket stages in the next 1.5-2 years. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: TASS reports Seoul intends to continue efforts to ease tensions with North Korea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Other Relevant International Dynamics:
  • Austria's NATO Consideration: Austrian Foreign Minister's statement on discussing abandoning neutrality and joining NATO due to RF aggressive policy represents a significant potential shift in European security architecture. Воин DV and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 confirm this.
  • Cambodia-Thailand Conflict: The complex situation and Trump's involvement (Alex Parker Returns) highlight broader geopolitical actors and their potential influence on regional conflicts. Рыбарь's video related to Cambodian AI fighter could be a subtle nod to this region.
  • US Aid Reallocation: The reported reallocation of US nuclear modernization budget to Air Force One repair could be framed by RF as a sign of declining US commitment to Ukraine or mismanaged priorities, impacting international perception of US support.
  • US-EU Trade Tensions: Trump's discussions with Ursula von der Leyen and stance on tariffs indicate potential for significant trade disputes that could impact the Western alliance's coherence. TASS reports Trump's specific tariff demands to von der Leyen. Оперативний ЗСУ and RBC-Ukraine report on the Trump-EU trade deal. STERNENKO also reports on the US-EU trade deal.
    • UPDATE: ТАСС reports Marine Le Pen stated the US-Brussels trade deal is a fiasco for Europe. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: РБК-Україна reports Orban criticized the new EU seven-year budget as living in "fantasies". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • NEW: Операция Z posts a photo message from Военкоры Русской Весны showing Marine Le Pen's criticism of the EU-US trade deal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Gaza Humanitarian Crisis: The report of civilian deaths from starvation in Gaza (ASTRA) highlights a severe humanitarian crisis that draws international attention and could potentially divert resources or diplomatic focus from Ukraine.
  • German Train Derailment: Civilian incident reported by TASS and Оперативний ЗСУ, not directly military but adds to the global backdrop. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Turkey Forest Fires: Large-scale forest fires in Turkey (RBC-Ukraine) highlight environmental disasters in the region, which could have a humanitarian impact and potentially affect regional stability, though not directly military.
  • Poland: Poland has scrambled fighter jets due to the missile attack on Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Два майора posts an intelligence report on Portuguese drone manufacturer Tekever opening an AI drone R&D center in France, indicating continued drone tech advancements by NATO allies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: STERNENKO reports a UAV from Belarus was detected near Vilnius, Lithuania, which could impact regional stability and international relations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• Pokrovsk Axis Offensive: RF forces will continue their high-intensity offensive operations on the Pokrovsk axis, attempting to achieve a semi-encirclement of Pokrovsk within the next 72 hours. This will involve sustained ground assaults supported by heavy GAB strikes and concentrated EW to suppress UA drone activity. RF maps indicate a continued focus on consolidating recent gains around Myrolyubovka. Alex Parker Returns' report on Stepnohirsk tactics suggests a widespread adoption of FPV drones and small infantry groups, potentially reducing heavy artillery use to manage public perception, which is likely to be replicated on the Pokrovsk axis. RF will continue to use lightweight vehicles for reconnaissance/transport on this axis. The introduction of "Shturm" robotic complexes is a potential, albeit likely limited, future component. Операция Z reports RF Army developing offensive between Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk, reinforcing this MLCOA (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Renewed request for support for Pokrovsk suggests continued heavy fighting (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Artillery of the 1198th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 35th Army Group "Vostok" will continue to support offensive operations on the South Donetsk direction (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Continued RF ground pressure on the Druzhkivka direction is expected. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports RF contract soldiers involved in close combat in Novoekonomicheskoye, with UA forces fleeing. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim). RF will continue to attempt flanking maneuvers in Donetsk Oblast, as seen in Zeleni Hay. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim) UPDATE: RF forces will continue to target Ukrainian BMPs with drone-assisted strikes following mine detonations in Razino, DNR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: WarGonzo provides updated front summaries for Donetsk and Pokrovsk directions, with maps, reinforcing continued RF efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: Zvиздец Мангусту reports that the situation on the Pokrovsk direction is intensely escalating, reinforcing RF focus on this axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF advance near Stepnohirsk and claimed capture of Plavni, reinforcing RF ground offensive MLCOA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Chasiv Yar Assault: A concentrated ground assault on Chasiv Yar, likely by elements of the 98th VDV Division and supported by the new effective EW, will continue within the next 48-72 hours. This will be preceded by intense artillery and air preparation, combined with aggressive EW to blind UA defenses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Persistent Stand-Off Strikes and Civilian Targetting: RF will maintain a high tempo of missile and Shahed UAV strikes across Ukraine, particularly targeting Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, to degrade infrastructure, disrupt logistics, and psychologically impact the population. Sumy Oblast will remain a high-priority target for GAB and drone attacks, including direct strikes on civilian transport to maximize terror, as evidenced by the recent bus attack. Chernihiv Oblast is also likely to experience increased strike UAV activity. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF launched drones from 5 locations, supporting widespread attacks. RF strategic aviation sorties (Tu-95/22) are probable tonight, indicating potential for continued widespread long-range strikes. Immediate air alerts in Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Rivne, Volyn, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Kyiv, Starokostiantyniv, Kropyvnytskyi, and Xmelnytska Oblasts. Confirmed RF strategic aviation (Tu-95MS, Tu-160) sorties indicate an immediate threat of widespread missile strikes. Continued RF ground assaults on Pokrovsk and Siversk, likely in small, mechanized groups or dismounted infantry, including motorcycle-mounted elements. Weather conditions (thunderstorms/heat) may slightly reduce air operations but increase stress on ground forces. The situation surrounding the WhatsApp and unregistered VPNs ban in Russia will unfold, potentially leading to internal protests or further clarification. Internal protests regarding anti-corruption laws will continue in Kyiv. Ukraine suspending CFE obligations will have immediate diplomatic implications. RF will continue to leverage information about internal political processes, suchs as online voting, for domestic messaging. Poland has scrambled fighter jets, indicating an immediate high alert for aerial threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UPDATE: RF tactical aviation activity is reported in the North-Eastern direction, indicating immediate aerial threat in that sector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF will target Starokostiantyniv and Kropyvnytskyi with strike UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF will continue drone attacks on Starokostiantyniv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF will continue missile attacks towards Poltava, Cherkasy, and Vinnytsia Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New report from Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine indicates a threat of aviation munitions for Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi district) Oblasts, implying RF will continue deep strikes in these areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF will continue aerial attacks on Xmelnytska Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: Оперативний ЗСУ reports 5 casualties, including a child, in Darnitsky district, Kyiv, from a UAV attack. This confirms an MLCOA of continued civilian targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: STERNENKO reports 8 casualties, including a 3-year-old child, in Kyiv's Darnitsky district due to a night RF attack. This also confirms an MLCOA of continued civilian targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATED: RF will continue missile attacks across Ukraine via MiG-31K launches and Kinzhals, causing widespread air raid alerts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF will continue night missile arrivals targeting civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • NEW: Colonelcassad posts an enemy-attributed map of night strikes by RF on Ukraine (28.07.2025), indicating RF's perceived success in widespread targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ASTRA reports two casualties in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast due to RF attack, confirming continued civilian targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Север.Реалии reports 3 fatalities in Sumy Oblast due to RF attack, confirming continued civilian targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: TASS reports RF used "Geran-2" (Shahed) to strike a UA unit position on Khortytsia Island, indicating continued use of loitering munitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Fast-moving targets detected in Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, and Khmelnytska Oblasts indicate continued missile threat across multiple regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Defensive Consolidation (Avdiivka): Forces west of Avdiivka will remain in a defensive posture, focusing on fortification and repelling localized UA counter-attacks, while reconstituting combat power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Limited Probing Attacks (Sumy/Kharkiv/Kherson/Belgorod Border): RF will continue limited ground probing attacks and cross-border shelling in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Kherson Oblasts to fix UA forces and prevent redeployment. The claimed logistics disruption in Kupiansk suggests continued focus on this type of interdiction. RF will also attempt to consolidate gains and potentially cut off Kupiansk from the northwest. Alex Parker Returns suggests that tactics of small infantry groups and FPV drones will be used in these areas as well. Reported capture of Ukrainian personnel attempting to infiltrate Belgorod Oblast suggests continued RF border security and counter-infiltration efforts (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). RF will attempt to contain Ukrainian reserve redeployments to Melove, Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim)
  • New report from Colonelcassad indicates that the islands on the Dnieper River near Kherson are a significant threat to the UAF, implying continued RF pressure and successful operations there. This suggests continued RF focus on this specific area. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • UPDATED: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims RF destroyed UA ammunition depots in the Kharkiv area, implying continued RF offensive action in this direction. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim).
  • NEW: TASS reports that representatives of the 61st Mechanized Brigade of the AFU, which lost combat effectiveness, left Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the command of the 61st Mechanized Brigade of the AFU fled Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim)
  • NEW: Два майора warns about the situation in Belgorod Oblast, implying continued UA cross-border activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy Oblast, indicating continued RF reconnaissance efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sustained Aid Collection: RF forces will continue to rely on volunteer aid collections (e.g., Colonelcassad's efforts) to supplement official supply chains, particularly for specific combat equipment and medical supplies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Information Control Fluctuation: The conflicting reports on the WhatsApp and unregistered VPNs ban suggest that RF may implement the ban in some areas or enforce it inconsistently, or the official denial is a temporary measure to manage public reaction. Expect continued, aggressive internal information control measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Drone Production Expansion: Russia will continue to expand its drone production capabilities at facilities like Alabuga, aiming to sustain a high tempo of UAV strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts satellite imagery confirming this expansion (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Testing New Ground Robotics: RF will continue testing and potentially limited deployment of new ground robotic complexes like "Shturm" to the front, particularly in less contested areas or for specific engineering tasks. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Операция Z posts video of the "Shturm" robotic complex working, confirming its existence and testing (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Internal Political Campaigns: RF will proceed with internal political processes such as online voting applications, reinforcing a sense of normalcy and state function. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF will continue to address domestic social issues, as indicated by efforts to prevent school uniform price increases. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF will likely continue to use internal security incidents (e.g., Crocus City Hall) and reports of UA forced mobilization (TASS report) to bolster domestic support for military actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UPDATE: RF will likely continue to link internal security incidents to international actors (e.g., Turkey training terrorists), leveraging these for diplomatic messaging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: ТАСС reports one of the Crocus City Hall attackers reconnoitered the venue hours before the concert, indicating an MLCOA of using this information for internal messaging to justify security measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF will continue adapting mobile air defense systems, such as the pickup-mounted heavy machine gun for the Black Sea Fleet, to counter Ukrainian UAV threats, particularly in coastal or forward areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF will likely continue to resist proposals for broad European involvement in peace talks with Ukraine, preferring a more limited format that includes only actors like Trump and Erdogan, as reported by Операция Z. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF will likely continue information operations aimed at discrediting Western allies and diverting attention from Ukraine, such as portraying alleged Israeli war crimes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UPDATE: Russia will continue expanding logistical and diplomatic ties with North Korea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New report from TASS (citing Marochko) claims almost 3,900 casualties (killed and wounded) for Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries on the LPR front over the past week. If this claim is internally consistent with RF assessments, it indicates an MLCOA of continued attrition warfare on this axis. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports Roscosmos will test reusable rocket stages in the next 1.5-2 years, indicating a long-term MLCOA of investing in advanced space technology with potential military applications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports PVO forces repelled a UAV attack in two cities and one district of Rostov Oblast, indicating a continued MLCOA of defending RF interior from drone attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: ТАСС reports RF PVO forces destroyed four Ukrainian UAVs over Rostov Oblast overnight. This confirms the MLCOA of defending against drone attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UPDATE: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports 7 enemy UAVs destroyed overnight by RF PVO forces. This also confirms the MLCOA of defending against drone attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports accomplices in the Crocus City Hall attack planned to blow up an entertainment complex in Kaspiysk, Dagestan, indicating an MLCOA of highlighting internal security threats to maintain public support for state actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • TASS reports a tank with improvised anti-drone protection (rebar cage) withstood approximately eight hits from UA shells. This indicates an MLCOA of continued field improvisation and adaptation in materiel, and use of this for morale/propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Новости Москвы reports a unified register of dog breeders will be created in Russia, a civilian development, projecting normalcy and state function. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Операция Z posts a photo message from Военкоры Русской Весны showing Marine Le Pen's criticism of the EU-US trade deal, indicating an MLCOA of amplifying perceived Western divisions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Poddubny posts a video about "evacuation equals mobilization", indicating an MLCOA of continuing information operations targeting UA mobilization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• Breakthrough on Pokrovsk Axis: A successful RF breakthrough and full encirclement of Pokrovsk, potentially leveraging deep infiltration elements and overwhelming GAB/EW support, leading to a significant loss of territory and potential collapse of UA forward defenses in the sector. The latest map updates indicate this remains a primary RF objective. This could be expedited by the use of small, agile assault groups as observed in Stepnohirsk. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Successful Capture of Chasiv Yar: Overrunning UAF defenses in Chasiv Yar, which would grant RF significant tactical advantage for further advances towards Kramatorsk-Sloviansk, disrupting UA defensive lines in Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Massive Coordinated Multi-Domain Attack: A highly coordinated, large-scale combined arms offensive on a key axis (e.g., Pokrovsk or Chasiv Yar) integrating ground, air, missile, UAV, and highly effective EW assets, overwhelming UA defenses at a critical point. This would likely be timed to coincide with adverse weather conditions if possible. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
• Escalated Maritime/Hybrid Attacks: A significant increase in naval drone (USV) attacks on critical UA Black Sea port infrastructure, combined with intensified hybrid operations (sabotage, cyber-attacks) on Ukrainian rear areas, aiming to cripple supply lines and public confidence. This could be coupled with increased internal sabotage efforts within Russia, aimed at critical infrastructure like railway lines, specifically targeting civilian logistics to create widespread disruption. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Major Offensive on Zaporizhzhia Axis: An intensified, large-scale offensive on the Zaporizhzhia axis, leveraging the tactics of small, agile assault groups (including motorcycles) but scaled up, aiming for a significant breakthrough toward Stepnohirsk, as indicated by Alex Parker Returns' report and confirmed by Colonelcassad's map. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• Sustained Strategic Bombing Campaign: RF strategic aviation (Tu-95/22) conducts sustained, multi-day bombing runs across Ukraine, targeting critical civilian infrastructure and military installations, leading to significant disruption and casualties. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Confirmed Tu-95MS take-offs increase the immediate risk of a significant strategic bombing campaign. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports pre-launch maneuvers of two Tu-160 strategic bombers, increasing the threat of a large-scale strategic missile strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • UPDATED: Sustained, widespread missile attacks utilizing MiG-31K and Kinzhals, leading to extensive civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Immediate (0-24 hours): Continued high intensity of RF aerial attacks (GAB, Shaheds) across the front, specifically targeting Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Kharkiv, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Rivne, Volyn, Kyiv, Starokostiantyniv, Kropyvnytskyi, and Xmelnytska Oblasts. Expect further Shahed attacks on Odesa, Kharkiv, Chernihiv Oblast, and Kyiv. High probability of increased EW activity on Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar axes. UAF to prioritize defensive actions and counter-EW measures. Confirmed RF strategic aviation (Tu-95MS, Tu-160) sorties indicate an immediate threat of widespread missile strikes. Continued RF ground assaults on Pokrovsk and Siversk, likely in small, mechanized groups or dismounted infantry, including motorcycle-mounted elements. Weather conditions (thunderstorms/heat) may slightly reduce air operations but increase stress on ground forces. The situation surrounding the WhatsApp and unregistered VPNs ban in Russia will unfold, potentially leading to internal protests or further clarification. Internal protests regarding anti-corruption laws will continue in Kyiv. Ukraine suspending CFE obligations will have immediate diplomatic implications. RF will continue to leverage information about internal political processes, such as online voting, for domestic messaging. Poland has scrambled fighter jets, indicating an immediate high alert for aerial threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UPDATE: RF tactical aviation activity is reported in the North-Eastern direction, indicating immediate aerial threat in that sector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Decision Point: Deployment of rapid counter-EW teams or specialized drone units to affected areas. Decision on immediate counter-fire against detected RF assault groups. Assessment of direct civilian protection measures in Sumy region after bus attack. Verification of casualties from Sumy bus attack. Immediate medical and psychological support for affected affected civilians. Enhanced security for military logistics against internal theft. Analysis of initial public response to the RF internal censorship measures and conflicting statements. Force posture adjustment in response to strategic aviation threat. Prioritize air defense assets in Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Rivne, Volyn, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad and Western Ukraine for incoming strategic aviation strikes. Ensure civilian shelters are open and monitored. Increase counter-intelligence efforts regarding RF propaganda about "tolerance." Rapid diplomatic messaging following CFE Treaty suspension. Monitor and manage internal political discourse surrounding anti-corruption protests. Respond to the increased civilian casualties in Kyiv with humanitarian aid and public messaging.
• Short Term (24-72 hours): Expect major RF ground assaults on Chasiv Yar and continued pressure on the Pokrovsk axis, with continued attempts to advance or consolidate around Myrolyubovka. RF will likely attempt to exploit any perceived weaknesses caused by EW disruption. UA forces will face intense fighting to hold current lines. Continued cross-border attacks into Sumy Oblast and attempts to cut off Kupiansk. Implications of Ukraine's CFE Treaty suspension will begin to materialize in international relations.
  • Decision Point: Allocation of reserves, targeted artillery, and precision fires to attrit RF assault waves and support embattled units. Consideration of pre-emptive strikes on RF concentration areas if intelligence allows. Continued efforts to unblock EU aid by demonstrating anti-corruption progress. Prioritization of rapid evacuation of wounded personnel to higher echelons of care. Public messaging strategy in response to RF censorship and disinformation (e.g., Yablonovka, Stepnohirsk claims, "Rusich" propaganda). Assessment of the effectiveness of RF's new anti-drone helicopter tactics. Evaluate potential for further shifts in international support following CFE suspension. Continue monitoring Bell Helicopters investment for concrete developments.
• Medium Term (72 hours - 1 week): RF will attempt to consolidate any gains made from offensive pushes. UA will assess losses and potential for localized counter-attacks, especially where RF forces are consolidating. International aid delivery timelines become critical. Focus on disrupting RF logistics, especially rail links impacted by drone attacks and pontoon bridges. The long-term implications of Russia's drone production expansion will become clearer.
  • Decision Point: Assessment of materiel losses and reinforcement requirements for units. Coordination with international partners on expedited aid delivery. Strategic decision on whether to launch limited counter-offensives against attritted RF forces. Analysis of the internal impact of RF's censorship measures and potential for exploitation. Further assessment of RF's progress with "Shturm" robotic complexes. Develop strategies to counter increased RF drone production and deployment.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• RF EW Capabilities: Specific technical details (frequency bands, power output, jamming profiles, mobility) of newly deployed and effective RF EW systems, particularly on the Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk axes.
  • Collection Requirement: SIGINT (Electronic Support Measures - ESM), COMINT, reconnaissance drone overflights (if possible), HUMINT.
• RF Offensive Grouping Details: Precise size, equipment, and unit composition of the "Northern Group of Forces" remains unknown from previous report. This remains a gap. Precise order of battle, personnel strength, and materiel composition of RF assault groups preparing for the Chasiv Yar offensive, especially regarding newly introduced equipment or units. Details on forces committed to the Pokrovsk axis, specifically around Myrolyubovka and Kupiansk. Further details on the specific units and scale of RF motorcycle-mounted assault groups. Details on the composition and role of lightweight military vehicles observed on the Pokrovsk axis. Precise identification of the RF military unit and target of the artillery strike on the South Donetsk direction. Details on RF forces and their objectives in the Druzhkivka direction. Further verification of the RF claim about close combat in Novoekonomicheskoye and the tactical situation there. Further verification of RF claims regarding flanking maneuvers to enter Zeleni Hay, Donetsk Oblast. Further assessment of RF tactics involving mine warfare combined with drone strikes, as seen in Razino, DNR.
  • Collection Requirement: Overhead ISR (satellite, UAV), long-range ground reconnaissance, SIGINT.
• RF Strategic Intent for Naval Infantry Conversion: Detailed analysis of the doctrinal implications and timelines for the conversion of RF naval infantry brigades to divisions. What new capabilities or operational shifts are intended, and where might they be deployed?
  • Collection Requirement: OSINT (RF military publications, expert analysis), long-term SIGINT monitoring of naval communications.
• Impact of Domestic RF Issues on Frontline Effectiveness: Are reports of low-quality rations, conscription issues, or internal dissent (e.g., General Popov situation, public response to AD information controls, internal violence involving SVO participants) directly impacting morale, discipline, or combat effectiveness of frontline units? How will the conflicting WhatsApp/VPN ban messages impact morale and internal communication within RF forces? How will the increased use of contract soldiers with criminal records (as highlighted by ASTRA) affect unit cohesion and discipline? What is the impact of declining birth rates on long-term manpower projections for RF? What is the full context and impact of the reported soldier suicide on the Pokrovsk axis? What is the operational impact of the details emerging from the Crocus City Hall investigation (e.g., number of magazines, preparation level) on RF internal security doctrine and resources? What is the specific context and operational implications of the Police recruitment drive in Khabarovsk Krai? How will the reported training of Crocus City Hall terrorists in Turkey impact RF's internal security doctrine and resource allocation?
  • Collection Requirement: HUMINT, open-source analysis of RF milblogger sentiment, POW interrogations.
• UA Anti-Corruption Reforms Impact: What is the specific and measurable impact of the "NABU and SAP anti-corruption scandal" on international aid and diplomatic relations, particularly the EU's "severe punishments"? What specific conditions need to be met for the €1.5 billion aid to be unfrozen?
  • Collection Requirement: OSINT (official EU/US statements, press conferences), diplomatic reporting.
• RF Railway Network Vulnerabilities: Detailed assessment of RF railway network vulnerabilities to drone attacks, particularly in strategic logistical corridors for southern and eastern axes. What are the points of failure and repair timelines, beyond the Volgograd incident, considering the confirmed casualties in Leningrad? What is the impact of the pontoon bridge destruction on RF logistics? How will the expansion of logistics links with North Korea impact RF's overall logistical resilience?
  • Collection Requirement: OSINT (commercial satellite imagery, local reports), HUMINT.
• Kupiansk Logistics Situation: Independent verification of RF claims regarding successful interdiction of Ukrainian logistics in Kupiansk. If accurate, assess the extent of disruption and UA's compensatory measures.
  • Collection Requirement: ISR, HUMINT, OSINT from local sources.
• Ukrainian Vehicle Losses: Precise location and context for the destroyed Ukrainian vehicle column shown in the Воин DV video. This is crucial for battle damage assessment and re-equipping efforts. Further identification of the specific Ukrainian BMP destroyed in the Colonelcassad video (unit, location, context).
  • Collection Requirement: ISR (drone footage verification, satellite imagery), HUMINT.
• RF Mohrytsia FOB Strike: Independent verification of the RF claim regarding the successful strike on the 80th ODShBr FOB near Mohrytsia, Sumy Oblast, and assessment of actual damage and casualties.
  • Collection Requirement: ISR, HUMINT, OSINT (local reports).
• Impact of Heat/Thunderstorms: Detailed forecast and assessment of how the predicted strong thunderstorms and high temperatures (up to +37C) will affect RF and UA ground operations, equipment performance, and troop welfare.
  • Collection Requirement: Meteorological data, operational reports, field observations.
• Source of Stolen UA Supplies: Investigate the network or individuals responsible for the theft of the UAZ vehicle intended for the front and assess the scale of such activity.
  • Collection Requirement: HUMINT, civilian law enforcement coordination.
• Details on "Enemy UAV Novelties": While ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ reported on "Новинки противника в области БПЛА," specific details of these UAVs are unknown. What are their capabilities, and how might they impact UA operations?
  • Collection Requirement: SIGINT, IMINT, HUMINT (e.g., captured equipment analysis, POW interrogations).
• RF Drone Production Capacity: More precise assessment of the expansion timeline and expected output from the Alabuga drone production facility.
  • Collection Requirement: Satellite imagery, OSINT (industry reports, supply chain analysis).
• Origin of Colonelcassad's Anomalous Video: Investigate the source and intent behind Colonelcassad's post of a pro-Ukrainian recruitment video. Is it a hacking attempt, deliberate misdirection, or a new form of information warfare?
  • Collection Requirement: Cyber Threat Intelligence, OSINT (channel history, associated accounts).
• Nature of "Zashitnik" Drone: Investigate the "Zashitnik" drone from «Зона СВО» video. Is it a standard commercial drone used by RF, or a modified military variant? What are its typical missions?
  • Collection Requirement: IMINT (drone analysis), OSINT (RF drone forums, military equipment databases).
• Operational Status of "Shturm" Robotic Complex: What is the current developmental and deployment status of the "Shturm" heavy assault robotic complex? Are these observations at a test site or are there plans for immediate frontline deployment?
  • Collection Requirement: OSINT (RF defense industry reports), IMINT (satellite imagery of test sites), HUMINT.
• RF Strategic Aviation Sortie Details: Confirm the exact number, type, and flight paths of RF strategic aviation during tonight's potential sorties. Identify specific targets and munition types.
  • Collection Requirement: MASINT, SIGINT, Air Defense (AD) reporting.
• Kherson Island Casualties: Independent verification of RF claims regarding deceased Ukrainian soldiers on the islands near Kherson. Assess the context and extent of any recent engagements there.
  • Collection Requirement: ISR, HUMINT, local reporting, battle damage assessment.
• Tyotkino Airstrike Effectiveness: Independent assessment of the damage and impact of the claimed JDAM strike on the elevator in Tyotkino, Sumy Oblast, and its implications for RF logistics/personnel staging.
  • Collection Requirement: Post-strike ISR (satellite, UAV imagery), HUMINT.
• Belgorod Infiltration Incident: Independent verification of the claimed capture of four Ukrainian military personnel attempting to infiltrate Belgorod Oblast, including their identities and unit affiliations beyond RF claims. Assess the purpose of this alleged infiltration.
  • Collection Requirement: HUMINT (POW interrogation, if confirmed), SIGINT, OSINT (local RF reports, cross-verification).
• Bell Helicopters Investment Details: Specifics on the timeline, scale, and models of Bell Helicopters' planned investment and production in Ukraine. How will this integrate into Ukraine's existing defense industrial base?
  • Collection Requirement: OSINT (company statements, government announcements, industry analysis), diplomatic reporting.
• Impact of CFE Treaty Suspension: Full assessment of the diplomatic and military consequences of Ukraine's suspension of the CFE Treaty, including potential reciprocal actions from Russia and reactions from NATO members.
  • Collection Requirement: OSINT (international legal analysis, diplomatic statements), expert consultation.
• Kyiv Protest Impact: Assess the extent and longevity of the protests in Kyiv against the law on NABU and SAP. Determine if external actors are attempting to exploit this internal political dynamic.
  • Collection Requirement: OSINT (local media, social media analysis), HUMINT.
• RF Mobile AD Systems: Further details on the deployment, quantity, and operational effectiveness of the new pickup-mounted mobile air defense systems (e.g., Black Sea Fleet).
  • Collection Requirement: IMINT, HUMINT, SIGINT.
• Zelenskyy's Diplomatic Objectives: Further clarification on Zelenskyy's stated desire for broader European involvement in peace talks with Putin. Is this a new diplomatic push, or a rhetorical device aimed at shaping international opinion?
  • Collection Requirement: Diplomatic reporting, OSINT (official statements, press conferences, political analysis).
• Starokostiantyniv and Kropyvnytskyi Threats: Further details on specific targets within these cities and RF intent.
  • Collection Requirement: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT, Air Defense reporting.
• UA Internal Mobilization Narratives: Independent verification and context of the TASS report regarding the captured UA soldier and his claims of forced mobilization and violence from TCC personnel. Assess the prevalence of such incidents and their impact on UA morale and mobilization efforts.
  • Collection Requirement: HUMINT, POW interrogations (if access is possible), OSINT (local Ukrainian media, social media, human rights reports).
• New Russian Information Operation: Investigate the specific content and reach of Colonelcassad's latest information operation regarding alleged Israeli war crimes. Assess its potential impact on international perceptions and alliances.
  • Collection Requirement: OSINT (content analysis, audience engagement, source verification).
• Ukrainian Reserve Redeployment at Melove: Independent verification of the effectiveness of RF containment efforts against UA reserve redeployments to Melove, Kharkiv Oblast. Assess the actual strength and composition of UA reserves deployed.
  • Collection Requirement: ISR (satellite, UAV), HUMINT, COMINT.
• Poland's Fighter Scramble: Monitor Polish and NATO statements for details regarding the fighter scramble and any associated intelligence gained on RF missile activity.
  • Collection Requirement: OSINT (NATO press releases, national defense statements), diplomatic reporting.
• RF Casualties on LPR Front: Independent verification of the TASS claim (citing Marochko) of almost 3,900 Ukrainian casualties (killed and wounded) on the LPR front.
  • Collection Requirement: HUMINT, ISR, battlefield damage assessment.
• Roscosmos Reusable Rocket Test Details: Further details on the specific technologies to be tested, the scope of the tests, and any potential dual-use applications for military purposes.
  • Collection Requirement: OSINT (Roscosmos official statements, Russian space industry publications, expert analysis).
• Rostov Oblast UAV Attack Assessment: Assess the scale of the UAV attack repelled in Rostov Oblast and the types of targets involved.
  • Collection Requirement: OSINT (local news, social media), IMINT.
• Kaspiysk Terror Plot Details: Further information on the alleged terror plot in Kaspiysk, its connection to the Crocus City Hall attackers, and the implications for RF internal security.
  • Collection Requirement: OSINT (Russian federal security service (FSB) statements, Russian media investigations), HUMINT.
• Impact of Improvised Vehicle Protection: Assess the effectiveness of RF's improvised anti-drone protection on tanks (rebar cages) in reducing battle damage and improving vehicle survivability against UA munitions.
  • Collection Requirement: BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of damaged RF vehicles, IMINT, HUMINT (POW interrogations, field reports).
• Xmelnytska Oblast Attack Assessment: Assess the scale, type of munitions used, and extent of damage from the overnight aerial attacks in Xmelnytska Oblast.
  • Collection Requirement: Local ODA reports, IMINT, AD reporting.
• Ukrainian Information Environment: Analyze the influence of new civilian developments in RF (e.g., dog breeder registry, Shrek cartoon) on the broader information environment and whether UA is leveraging this for psychological operations.
  • Collection Requirement: OSINT (Ukrainian social media, news commentary).
• Belarusian UAV Incursions: Investigate the capabilities, origin, and intent of the UAV detected from Belarus over Lithuania. Is this part of a wider RF/Belarusian reconnaissance effort, or a localized incident?
  • Collection Requirement: SIGINT, IMINT, diplomatic engagement with Lithuania.
• RF Advance near Stepnohirsk: Independent verification of RF claims of advancing to the southern outskirts of Stepnohirsk and capturing Plavni. Assess the strategic implications of this reported advance for the Zaporizhzhia axis.
  • Collection Requirement: ISR (satellite, UAV imagery), HUMINT, local reporting, battle damage assessment.