Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide threat from RF missile and UAV attacks persists. Guided Aerial Bombs (GABs) remain a significant factor in frontline areas, supported by RF tactical aviation. UAF Air Force reports high interception rates (94%) against RF UAVs (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Starlink outages were largely resolved. President Zelenskyy received RF intentions for Summer-Autumn operations and emphasized the need for 1000 interceptor drones per day. Ukraine ranks 8th globally in military spending. Total estimated RF personnel losses as of 270404Z JUL 25: +920 (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Ukrainian Presidential Brigade video indicates continued drone operations for reconnaissance and strike missions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). President Zelenskyy approved new National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) sanction decisions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBC-Ukraine reports Ukraine will receive an unprecedented quantity of AI-powered drone strike kits (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Odesa Oblast: Confirmed destruction of a residential building and market due to RF drone attacks, with civilian casualties. Explosion on a Ukrainian dredge ship resulted in fatalities. Enemy reconnaissance UAV detected in Black Sea waters. Multiple RF "moped" (Shahed) type UAVs detected in vicinity of Snake Island, with a course towards Tatarbunary and Chornomorsk, indicating imminent drone strike threat to Southern Odesa Oblast from the Black Sea. UAF Air Force reports successful interception or failure of recent drone groups targeting Odesa (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF milbloggers (Операция Z, Военкор Котенок, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns) claim successful "Geranium" (Shahed) strikes with multiple impacts and fires near a brewery and industrial/port structures in Odesa (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF claims). Video evidence from RF sources supports large explosions and smoke plumes in urban/coastal areas (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Ukrainian sources confirm missile/drone engagement by UAF air defenses over the sea near Odesa, indicating successful interception efforts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Massive combined attack with missiles and drones confirmed, resulting in at least 2 fatalities and injuries. "Epicenter" commercial/industrial facility and a tea brand's production facility destroyed. Continuous shelling of Nikopol, Myrivska, and Marhanets communities. RF launched KAABs onto Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New reports indicate Russians attacked two districts of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with photos confirming damage and casualties (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Threat of RF aerial munitions, specifically for Synelnykivskyi district (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF FPV drone operations confirmed targeting vehicles and personnel near Yanvarske (Sichneve) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Axis): RF claims significant advances and capture of multiple settlements (Novoekonomichne, Zverevo, Aleksandro-Kalinovo, Zelenyy Hay), and "fights began on the southern and southwestern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk" (Pokrovsk), with deep infiltration by saboteurs (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Heavy shelling and GAB strikes on Pokrovsk confirmed. UAF General Staff reports numerous clashes across the axis. 2 killed, 14 injured from Russian shelling in Konstantinovka. UAF successfully struck an RF HQ in Donetsk (Zasyadko mine). RF claims "fire bag" for UAF in Yuzhny quarter of Chasiv Yar. RF introducing new 152mm "Hyacinth-K" howitzer. UAF (MURAMASA) continues successful engagements against RF ground probes on Kostiantynivka axis. UAF Air Force reports KAABs launched on Donetsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). DeepState map has been updated. Civilians queuing for water in Chystiakove indicates infrastructure damage. RF milbloggers indicate continued RF focus on Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk directions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Reports of sniper operations by 299th Regiment, 98th VDV Division on the Kostiantynivka axis (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). DeepState reports 47th Separate Artillery Brigade (OABr) destroying enemy infantry in Zverovo (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operational ZSU posts video footage from 82nd Air Assault Brigade (ODShBr) drone operators destroying dugouts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts map "Okhvat Konstantinovki" indicating RF encirclement efforts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Significant damage to multi-story buildings in Avdiivka, civilian evacuation from Dobropillia due to shelling, and damage in Rodinske confirmed (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF milblogger "Voenkor Kotenok" reports UAF field headquarters in Pokrovsk evacuated (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). RF milbloggers report intense fighting near Pokrovsk (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Liveuamap Source reports daily clashes on the Pokrovsk direction (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Four cities in Donetsk Oblast may be left without water (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Drone footage shows explosions near buildings with subsequent damage, indicating direct military engagement (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF 414th UAV Brigade "Birds of Madyar" reportedly caused RF casualties on the Pokrovsk direction (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvnyi ZSU and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report partial enemy penetration between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, and RF intent to semi-encircle Pokrovsk (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBC-Ukraine reports UAF confirmed RF attempts to partially encircle Pokrovsk (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Cherkasy Oblast: RF missile attack injured multiple civilians (rising to 12) and damaged a cemetery. New threat of enemy strike UAVs from the northeast.
• Kharkiv Oblast: RF sources claim "North" group continued creating a "security strip." First operational use of a FAB-3000 M-54 UMPK against a Ukrainian strongpoint in Lyptsi. Positional fighting continues in Vovchansk. KAAB hit a multi-story building and a medical facility, causing multiple injuries (up to 17). RF drone attacks on Kharkiv confirmed. SBU detained a Russian spotter. KAABs launched on Kharkiv Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Overnight, Kharkiv was attacked by 15 Shahed UAVs, 4 Guided Aerial Bombs, and 2 ballistic missiles. UAF reports elimination of RF regiment commander (83rd Motorized Rifle Regiment, 69th Motorized Rifle Division). Explosions reported in Kharkiv city, confirmed by multiple sources (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). A "moped" (Shahed) strike confirmed on a civilian enterprise in Kharkiv (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). A group of strike drones in Kharkiv Oblast and a series of explosions attributed to "Geran-2" type UAVs (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Malodanylivska community impacted near private housing (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports movement of enemy drones from Luhansk Oblast towards Kharkiv Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kharkiv city and 6 settlements were struck (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Aftermath photos confirm damage (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports local authorities claim Russia attacked Kharkiv Oblast overnight with 10 missiles, 9 air bombs, and 35 Shaheds (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports threat of enemy strike UAVs targeting Kharkiv and Starokostiantyniv (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Enemy reconnaissance UAV activity reported (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). OTU "Kharkiv" reports on its operational zone (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Daily clashes reported on the South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction near Starytsa, Krasne Pershoho, and near Vovchansk (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Video from 154th Separate Mechanized Brigade demonstrates reconnaissance and strikes on RF infantry and armored vehicles (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kadyrov_95 posts video of "Akhmat" group drone footage of explosions in a wooded area in Kharkiv direction (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia city cleared, but missile danger remains. RF Milbloggers claim RF forces "liberated Kamyanske" and are "storming Plavni, advancing further" towards Stepnohirsk (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV heading towards Zaporizhzhia from the south. Civilian casualties confirmed (1 killed, 3 injured) from shelling/drone attacks. Two fatalities in Primorske from FPV drone attack. UAF Air Force confirms GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF UAV dropped munition near Zaporizhzhia NPP. Ongoing RF attacks on Orikhiv and Huliaippole directions. Ukrainian soldiers from 7th Division appeal for drone and Starlink donations. TASS and Mash on Donbas are reporting a claimed UA drone attack on an ambulance in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, injuring a patient and driver (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Two fatalities in Stepnohirsk due to RF MLRS attack (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). "ATESH" partisans disabled a railway branch in Zaporizhzhia direction (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF 210th Separate Assault Battalion has advanced in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with video evidence of strikes on a damaged apartment building (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvnyi ZSU reports the 1st Assault Battalion of the 210th Separate Assault Regiment conducted a successful local offensive (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF drone footage shows a destroyed military vehicle (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Z Komitet + карта СВО posted a map indicating ongoing tactical analysis in Plavni, Zaporizhzhia direction, suggesting continued RF focus here (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Z Komitet + карта СВО posted a map indicating ongoing tactical analysis in Kamenka (Kamyanka), Zaporizhzhia direction (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Kryvyi Rih: Situation assessed as controlled. Infrastructure projects ongoing. Enemy reconnaissance UAV activity reported (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Mykolaiv Oblast: RF drone attacks reported overnight, causing significant fires. SBU prevented a dual terrorist act. Russian drone attacked a Norwegian humanitarian organization's base. DeepState posts video of successful engagements on the Kinburn Spit. Mykolaivskiy Vanok reports indicate successful neutralization of recent drone attacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Video showcasing acquisition and display of donated equipment for the 33rd Mechanized Brigade, emphasizing medical support and logistics (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Sumy Oblast: Continuous RF drone activity (Shaheds, reconnaissance UAVs) and GAB launches. UAF repelled 25 Russian army assaults yesterday in Kursk and North Slobozhansky direction. One fatality reported near Znob-Novhorodske. DeepState reports 225th Separate Assault Battalion liberated Kindrativka, eliminating 3 RF battalions and 1 battalion commander (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Overnight, RF launched drones, KAABs, and missiles at Shostka, causing partial power and water loss. UAF forces able to dislodge RF troops from Kindrativka. UAF is assaulting Oleksiyivka. RF milbloggers (Operatsiya Z) claim VDV are destroying enemy infantry and artillery, advancing towards Sumy (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). RF strike on Sumy Oblast caused civilian casualties, hitting a bus with civilians in Yunakivska community (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). A new group of enemy strike UAVs inbound from Bryansk Oblast towards Northern Sumy Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ISW maps show Ukrainian forces advancing in Sumy Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Group of "Shaheds" in northern and central Sumy Oblast moving south, then west towards Chernihiv Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Ukrainian special operations forces (SSO) unit "Bravo" is being redeployed to the Sumy direction (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Colonelcassad is organizing aid collection for units fighting in Sumy (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Heavy fighting reported on the Sumy front, with UAF deploying reserves (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports Z-channels reporting heavy losses and retreat of RF forces from Kindrativka (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF milbloggers are "uniformly howling about bad affairs" in Sumy Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF repelled 9 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF milbloggers indicate deteriorating situation near Alekseevka for RF forces (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Video shows drone striking gas station with propane tank, causing explosion and fire in Hlukhiv, Sumy region, 18-20 km from border (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Explosions and power outages reported in Sumy (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF UAV attack on critical infrastructure in Sumy Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Kherson Oblast: RF claims aviation strike on a UAF HQ. GAB launch on Kherson. RF reconnaissance UAVs reported. UAF repelled 5 Russian army assaults yesterday in Kherson direction. RF dropped explosives from a drone on an ambulance crew. A 9-year-old child injured. TASS and Mash on Donbas claim UA drone attack on an ambulance in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports two fatalities in Kherson Oblast due to Ukrainian attacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF milblogger "Mash на Донбассе" claims Ukrainian kamikaze drone attacked a minibus at Nova Mayachka market, resulting in one fatality and five injured; video shows aftermath (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Aerial reconnaissance video from Kherson Oblast indicates surveillance activity (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Video shows an RF soldier, identified as a recruit with a criminal record, describing his recruitment and participation in combat, including finding dead bodies on an island, indicating the presence of RF penal battalions on this axis (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Video depicting the evacuation of deceased individuals on a motorcycle pulling a trailer in a rural area (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Other Eastern Axes: UAF General Staff reports numerous clashes on Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka directions. RF claims advances near Kolodyazi, Yampolivka, and Dibrova (Lyman), and Holubivka (Kupyansk). Increased RF EW activity observed in Lyman direction. RF forces significantly advanced in Serebryansky forestry and took control of a pioneer camp (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). UAF 63rd Brigade's drone unit eliminated 23 enemy personnel near Torske. DeepState posts drone footage from 155th Brigade showing a repelled RF assault north of Shevchenko (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvnyi ZSU reports significant RF losses near Siversk (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Colonelcassad posts video showing drone operators from 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade and 5th Guards Tank Brigade destroying well-camouflaged enemy targets in Maliyivka (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF 46th Airmobile Brigade (DShV) drone unit details enemy losses on Pokrovsk direction (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF source claims destruction of Ukrainian "Novator" armored vehicle in Filyi area (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Reports on destruction of a Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage group (DRG) near Aleksandrogad (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Colonelcassad posts video of "South" group special forces conducting combat operations in Siversk direction, showing a destroyed BMP (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF 148th Separate Artillery Brigade (OABr) effectively striking RF personnel (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). "Vostok" group liberated Maliyivka (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Daily clashes on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka directions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Video shows dead/injured RF personnel and burning vehicles, indicating a recent engagement and casualties (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Thermal footage of a military vehicle struck by ordnance, resulting in explosion and fire (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports active RF tactical aviation in the eastern direction (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 54th Mechanized Brigade and 81st Airmobile Brigade repelled a mechanized assault on the Siversk direction, inflicting RF losses (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Poltava Oblast: Enemy drone fell due to AD work. Reconnaissance UAVs on border of Kharkiv and Poltava. Threat of strike UAVs from northeast. Explosions reported in Kremenchuk area. UAVs detected moving towards Myrhorod, Poltava, and Dykanka. Groups of Shaheds from Sumy Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Damage in Poltava Oblast reported (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Poltava TCC and SP was dispersed and relocated after Russian shelling (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ternopil Oblast: Grenade explosion in apartment building resulted in two fatalities.
• Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Explosions reported (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Ballistic missile threat announced and cleared (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russia:
  • Volgograd Oblast: Flight restrictions implemented, later lifted. Reports of explosions and fires confirmed by images and videos (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). "Operatsiya Z" claims disruption to railway electrical power due to UAV debris (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Large fire at oil station confirmed (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Ongoing enemy drone attack on Volgograd confirmed (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Drone attack on electric substation near railway, with video showing fire (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Passenger trains delayed due to UAV attack, with six trains delayed due to power outages at Zhutovo station (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Video evidence of "good UAVs" attacking electrical substation (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Images and videos confirm damage to electrical substation at Zhutovo station, damaged building, and derailed train (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Damage to a service building at Zhutovo station confirmed (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO posts video/photo messages confirming damage to railway infrastructure in Volgograd Oblast due to drone attacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Krasnodar Krai: Multiple videos show large explosions and fires near a "Lukoil-Yugnefteprodukt Sochinskaya oil depot." RF MoD claims 39 Ukrainian UAVs shot down (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Casualties reported (2 dead, 13 injured). Damage to railway station, injuring train passengers. Armavir airfield reportedly hit.
  • Kursk Oblast: Russian official signed resolution on payments to residents forced to leave homes. Ukrainian SOF engaged Russian forces. One civilian killed by drone attack. UAF repelled 25 RF assaults yesterday. Two Ukrainian UAVs shot down. RF milblogger posts video of elderly man claiming to be victim of Ukrainian looting (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). "Anvar" unit clearing a buffer zone near Porozok and Seredyna-Buda (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UA_REG TEAM destroying an "aquakatcap" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Photo and video messages related to Kursk Oblast confirm military activity (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Luhansk (Kremennaya): RF forces significantly advanced in Serebryansky forestry and took control of a pioneer camp on Lake Linevoye (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Rostov Oblast (Novocherkassk/Taganrog Area): Multiple explosions reported in suburbs of Taganrog and Novocherkassk due to drone attacks. Railway station building in Peschanokopskoye damaged. Two fatalities reported from a UAV attack on a vehicle, including a surgeon and his brother from Kalmykia (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports military forces repelled a night attack, no casualties (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Amur Oblast: A civilian An-24 passenger plane crashed with 43 passengers and 6 crew, no survivors. RF Ministry of Emergency Situations (EMERCOM) psychologists handled over 300 calls (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports investigators seized engines and released photos of wreckage (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Rostov Oblast (Novoshakhtinsk): Burning shopping center. One firefighter died, one woman's body found.
  • Nevinnomyssk (Stavropol Krai): Multiple explosions confirmed from alleged drone attacks on Nevinnomyssky Azot industrial plant and Signal radio factory. Satellite imagery confirms damage to the "Signal" plant (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Tambov Oblast: "Cotton" (explosions/fires) reported in the area of the Tambov Powder Plant after UAV attack.
  • RF Airports: Flight restrictions in various airports lifted after drone threats. Temporary flight restrictions lifted in Nizhny Novgorod, Pskov, and Kaluga airports (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Temporary flight restrictions at Pulkovo Airport (St. Petersburg) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Pskov Oblast governor confirmed RF AD shot down a UA UAV (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Governor of Nizhny Novgorod reports unsuccessful drone attack on industrial territory (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Main Russian Navy Day parade was cancelled due to security concerns (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Drones over Leningrad Oblast reported with videos (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Over a dozen drones destroyed in Leningrad Oblast, at least 10 confirmed by RF milbloggers (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). One civilian injured in Lomonosov district, Leningrad Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Pulkovo airport has reopened (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Drone attack in Leningrad Oblast repelled (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Putin visited the frigate "Admiral Grigorovich," which participated in repelling UAV attacks on Leningrad Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad reports Putin congratulating the commander of the "Admiral Grigorovich" frigate for repelling drone attacks in Leningrad Oblast, confirming the incident and Putin's recognition (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Moscow Oblast: Two drones flying towards Moscow shot down. Fog expected.
  • Bryansk Oblast: Numerous enemy UAVs shot down. RF MoD claims 12 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Crimea, Rostov, and Bryansk Oblasts (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Saratov Oblast: Gas explosion in apartment building resulted in 7 fatalities. Search and rescue operations completed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Crimea: Russian milbloggers report detention of a DJ for playing Ukrainian song (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF MoD claims 12 Ukrainian UAVs shot down (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Video claiming strike on a military object in occupied Crimea (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Multiple videos confirm smoke plumes, implying successful strike (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Lipetsk Oblast: Air alert declared, later lifted (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Regional official highlights social services and veteran support (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Smolensk Oblast: RF AD forces shot down and suppressed six Ukrainian UAVs (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Civilian traffic accident resulted in three fatalities and two injuries (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Voronezh Oblast: RF sources report UA drone attacks (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Kaluga Oblast: RF sources report UA drone attacks (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Chelyabinsk Oblast: TASS reports 3 new figures in large-scale embezzlement case (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Investigation launched after girl danced on war memorial (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF General AD Claims: RF MoD claims 99 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight, corroborated by RF milbloggers (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). New RF MoD report claims 291 aircraft-type UAVs and three Vampire MLRS rockets shot down (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). MoD Russia provides an update on the progress of the special military operation, likely including AD claims (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Bashtov (Bashkortostan): Bus accident with casualties reported (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Other Internal RF Issues: Reports of low-quality dry rations, FSB detentions, corruption arrests. Planned ban on gasoline exports. Mobilization issues. GAZ transitioning to four-day work week. Continued arrests for alleged collaboration. Central Bank lowered key rate to 18%. Admiral Kuznetsov potentially to be scrapped. New domestic RF USV/BEC showcased (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Financial scammers targeting Russians (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Proposal to shorten alcohol sales hours (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF Deputy Prime Minister Belousov congratulated Russians on Navy Day (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Internal RF milblogger message criticizing leadership (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Video claiming RF drone operators arming FPV drones with Kalashnikovs (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Allegations of "Akhmat" special forces looting apartments in Horlivka (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Preparing to protest reports (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Peskov commenting on General Ivan Popov (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Video of humanoid robot in Moscow (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZA collecting aid for VDV Day (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Average pensions for women exceeded men's (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Video claiming soldier with urinary incontinence mocked (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Philologist in Ambush collecting aid for wounded personnel, requesting hexacopters, 10-inch and 13-inch FPV drones, confirming widespread drone supply efforts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Putin visited "Admiral Grigorovich" frigate that repelled UAV attacks on Leningrad Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Putin awarded "For Loyalty to the Russian Fleet" medal (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Russian military recruitment advertisement offering significant pay (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Naval infantry brigades to be converted into divisions, qualitatively increasing strike power and combat capabilities (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Putin considers it correct that Navy Day is now celebrated with exercises, not a parade (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Dvа майора posts a military recruitment advertisement offering 5.5 million rubles for the first year of service (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Воин DV posts video showing soldiers on ATVs, one of which encounters an explosion/fire, suggesting a patrol in a rural/forested area encountered an IED or similar event (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts medical video of skull trauma, likely related to wounded RF personnel, indicating ongoing casualties (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts images regarding legal prohibitions on filming AD systems and drone/missile impacts, indicating RF efforts to control information flow internally (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Putin visiting Nikolsky Naval Cathedral in Kronstadt, reinforcing domestic messaging (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Kupiansk: RF source (Операция Z) reports significant disruption to Ukrainian logistics in Kupiansk, with transport being instantly destroyed (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF claim).
• Kazakhstan: Kazakh Ministry of Defense searching for a missing military helicopter and its crew (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Regional Context (Non-Ukraine):
  • Cyprus: Uncontained wildfires and two deaths. Large-scale fires in Turkey reported (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Russian tourists vacationing in Turkey as usual (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Lithuania: Prepared infrastructure for additional US and NATO troops. Will allocate €30M for Patriot systems. Patrushev stated any military encroachment on Kaliningrad would receive a devastating response.
  • Red Sea: Distress signal regarding a vessel seizure.
  • Syria: Alleged ethnic cleansing. French court canceled arrest warrant for Assad. Terrorist attack in Zahedan, Iran. US liquidated senior ISIS leader. Two MKO terrorists linked to Israel were executed in Iran (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Black Sea Region: "Massive UAV raid" reported. Resumption of attacks. Putin states plans for modern naval forces. Naval exercises ("July Storm") ongoing, involving exercises of three fleets and the Caspian Flotilla via video link, with SMO experience taken into account (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Two Majors video shows Baltic Fleet forces destroying maritime target with unmanned systems (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Expected attack of underwater and conventional USVs on Novorossiysk, Anapa. Putin congratulated sailors and officers on Navy Day (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Video showing Baltic Fleet ship "Viktor Veliky" conducting anti-aircraft missile firing exercises (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad has posted a video showing Baltic Fleet forces destroying a maritime target using a combination of a Lancet loitering munition and an unmanned surface vessel (USV) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Video of large-scale naval exercises (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Putin arrived at St. Petersburg Admiralty (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Video showing a significant explosion in a coastal urban area (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov unveiled a bust devoted to Admiral Ushakov (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Cambodia-Thailand Border: Bloody battles approaching Russian resorts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Ceasefire agreement mediated by Trump reported by multiple sources (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Fighting resumed after Trump's mediation (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Mediator and date for peace talks known (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Kyiv: SBU prevented a terrorist attack. Air raid alerts announced and cleared. Israeli early warning system operational. Protests against law №12414 regarding NABU continue. Heat-related cargo movement restrictions. Combined night strike (missiles, drones) confirmed. Air raid alert due to ballistic missile threat, cleared later (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kyiv City Military Administration also posted about 0900Z minute of silence (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). KMVA celebrated Medical Worker's Day (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBC-Ukraine warns of a ballistic missile threat from the south (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBC-Ukraine posted photo messages about President Zelenskyy's desire to see other international leaders, not just Trump and Erdogan, at a meeting with Putin (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Estonia: Sounding alarm about Russia moving EW systems closer to NATO. NATO has increased reconnaissance flights along the Kaliningrad border (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). "Challenger 650 Artemis" reconnaissance aircraft flights in Kaliningrad and Black Sea waters confirmed (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Georgia (Tbilisi): Unknown individuals exploded firecrackers near a hotel where Russian fencers were staying (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Videos of protests in Georgia where a Russian flag is being burned (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). NATO exercises continued in Georgia (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Austria: Ready to discuss joining NATO, due to RF aggressive policy (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • EU: Stood on principle (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Intense negotiations between the US and EU regarding 15% tariffs before a meeting between Trump and von der Leyen, indicating a potential trade war (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • North Korea: Registration for the first Moscow-Pyongyang flight opening at Sheremetyevo Airport (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Russia considering all possibilities for expanding communication with North Korea, including sea and ferry links (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Venezuela: Urgent intelligence analysis on petroleum and gas infrastructure in Venezuela, suggesting potential for Russian interest/activity (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Israel-Iran: Alex Parker Returns posts video claiming damage to Weizmann Institute in Israel from Iranian hypersonic missile, used to explain why conflict was quickly ended; this is a highly dubious claim, likely disinformation, but it indicates a propaganda narrative (CONFIDENCE: LOW for content, HIGH for narrative).
  • History/Culture: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video about historical Podillia, indicating a focus on cultural narratives (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kotsnews posts video commemorating battle for Saur-Mogila in 2014, indicating RF historical/propaganda focus on past "victories" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kotsnews also shows a public "RENDEZVOUS" event, likely civilian (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• New Tactical Development - Lancet Intercept: Claimed FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet loitering munition (CONFIDENCE: LOW).
• New RF Naval Commissioning: Putin participated in ceremony for raising naval ensign on 'Knyaz Pozharsky' nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine. Putin visited the frigate "Admiral Grigorovich," which participated in repelling UAV attacks on Leningrad Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Putin was awarded "For Loyalty to the Russian Fleet" medal (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• New US Aid Package to Ukraine: US approval of $330 million military package. First Patriot battery and missiles from Germany arrived (3 systems transferred) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Lithuanian Minister of Defense pledged €30 million for Patriot systems. Ukraine will receive 33,000 AI-powered drone strike kits from Auterion by year-end (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF milblogger claims a Patriot system with two radar stations and a launcher was destroyed at Starokostiantyniv airfield (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF claim).
• Starlink Outage: Global Starlink outage largely resolved, software-related.
• Israel-Palestine Recognition: Israel condemns France's decision to recognize Palestine. Israeli military states no evidence of Hamas regularly stealing UN aid. "Tactical pause" by IDF in Gaza for humanitarian aid (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Internal Ukrainian Political Developments: RBC-Ukraine posts photo claiming "Retribution for the NABU and SAP anti-corruption scandal was not long in coming: the EU severely punishes Ukraine." TASS reports NYT opinion on Zelenskyy's persecution of anti-corruption agencies (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zelenskiy signed laws on ARMA reform and factoring (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Svyrydenko on economic development and defense production (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). "Madyar" hinted at an RF attempt to simultaneously kill drone unit commanders, indicating a high-level targeted threat to UAF leadership (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zelenskyy introduced new sanctions (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Conversation with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, discussing European integration, further sanctions against Russia, and anti-corruption infrastructure (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• New Imagery/Video Assessments:
  • DShV (UAF) Photos: Multiple photos from Ukrainian Air Assault Forces with the caption "On the battlefield, not the strongest or bravest wins. The coordinated team wins." These images show well-equipped UA personnel, likely training or on duty, demonstrating professionalism and morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ: Thermal imaging footage from a drone shows engagement with a light-colored vehicle, indicating surveillance and a potential attack on Ukrainian military assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• No new significant weather or environmental factors reported that would critically impact current operations. Existing conditions (e.g., fog in Moscow Oblast, if affecting flight operations) remain relevant where noted.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF Force Dispositions:
  • Odesa/Black Sea: Continued deployment of Shahed UAVs from the Black Sea, targeting southern Odesa.
  • Dnipropetrovsk: Presence of RF FPV drone operations, particularly around Yanvarske (Sichneve).
  • Donetsk (Pokrovsk Axis): Continued offensive operations aiming for encirclement of Pokrovsk. Elements of 98th VDV Div active near Kostiantynivka. Introduction of 152mm "Hyacinth-K" howitzer.
  • Kharkiv: "North" group maintaining pressure, utilizing FAB-3000 M-54 UMPK. Continued drone and missile attacks on Kharkiv city and oblast.
  • Zaporizhzhia: Offensive operations reported towards Stepnohirsk. Persistent shelling of Orikhiv and Huliaippole directions. Z Komitet + карта СВО maps show RF activity near Plavni and Kamenka.
  • Sumy/Kursk/North Slobozhansky: Continued probing and assault attempts. Indications of RF units retreating from Kindrativka and deteriorating situation near Alekseevka. Redeployment of UA SSO "Bravo" unit to Sumy direction.
  • Kherson: Continued drone and artillery attacks. Presence of RF penal battalions.
  • Other Eastern Axes: Ongoing clashes across Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka directions. Increased EW activity in Lyman direction. RF advances in Serebryansky forestry confirmed. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows RF armored vehicles engaged in combat on Siversk direction. RF source claims logistical disruption in Kupiansk.
  • Naval Forces: Putin participating in naval ceremonies and exercises ("July Storm"), showcasing new nuclear submarine 'Knyaz Pozharsky' and highlighting naval readiness. Efforts to convert naval infantry brigades into divisions. Putin's public appearances at Kronstadt and on the frigate "Admiral Grigorovich" highlight continued focus on naval power. RF MOD unveiling of Admiral Ushakov bust reinforces naval heritage.
• UAF Force Dispositions:
  • General: High interception rates against RF UAVs (94%). Continued drone operations for reconnaissance and strike. DShV photos demonstrate well-equipped, professional personnel.
  • Odesa: Air defense units actively engaging incoming RF drones.
  • Donetsk (Pokrovsk Axis): Actively repelling RF ground probes. 47th OABr and 82nd ODShBr engaging RF forces with drones. 414th UAV Brigade "Birds of Madyar" inflicting RF casualties. UAF (118th Mechanized Brigade) successfully repelled a mechanized assault, destroying tanks and BMPs (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Sumy: 225th Separate Assault Battalion liberated Kindrativka. Forces assaulting Oleksiyivka.
  • Zaporizhzhia: 210th Separate Assault Battalion conducting local offensive operations.
  • Other Eastern Axes: 63rd Brigade's drone unit eliminated 23 enemy personnel near Torske. 155th Brigade repelled RF assault. 148th OABr striking RF personnel. 54th Mechanized Brigade and 81st Airmobile Brigade repelled mechanized assault on Siversk.
• Control Measures:
  • Nationwide air raid alerts for missile and drone threats continue.
  • Local authorities in Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts managing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.
  • Zelenskyy approved new NSDSC sanction decisions.
  • Ukrainian government continues efforts to manage domestic political stability amidst anti-corruption criticisms from international partners.
  • RF actively controlling information regarding military actions, evidenced by Colonelcassad's post about prohibiting filming AD and drone impacts.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Air/Missile/UAV: RF maintains high capability for widespread and targeted missile and UAV strikes, including Shaheds and GABs (FAB/KAAB). Evidence suggests continued, albeit contested, effectiveness of Shahed attacks on critical infrastructure and urban areas. The FAB-3000 M-54 UMPK deployment in Lyptsi (Kharkiv) demonstrates a continued escalation in the use of heavy glide bombs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Forces: RF ground forces demonstrate persistent offensive pressure, particularly on the Pokrovsk (Donetsk) axis, aiming for operational encirclement (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). They are adapting tactics, employing smaller, more agile assault groups in some areas (e.g., Chasiv Yar). However, the large-scale armored assault near Vuhledar highlights persistent weaknesses in combined arms coordination for larger formations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The presence of "penal battalions" (e.g., from Kherson report) indicates continued reliance on non-traditional recruitment to sustain combat power. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) The use of ATVs by a patrol (Воин DV video) suggests small-unit mobility in rough terrain. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ thermal drone footage suggests continued RF surveillance and targeting of UA military assets.
  • Electronic Warfare (EW): RF EW capabilities are proving highly effective, particularly on the Chasiv Yar axis, significantly degrading UA UAS reconnaissance and FPV drone operations. This is a critical development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval: Russia continues to project naval power through exercises ("July Storm") and commissioning of new assets, reflecting a long-term strategic focus on maritime capabilities. The conversion of naval infantry brigades into divisions suggests an intention to enhance offensive amphibious/coastal strike power. Putin being awarded the "For Loyalty to the Russian Fleet" medal underscores the high-level focus on naval power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Intentions:
  • Primary Objective (Donetsk/Pokrovsk): The most apparent intention is to continue advancing on the Pokrovsk axis, aiming for a semi-encirclement or full capture of the city, likely as a key step towards deeper penetration into Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar: To capture Chasiv Yar, likely to secure a dominant position for further advances towards Kramatorsk-Sloviansk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Strategic Attrition: Continue to degrade Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure through persistent missile, GAB, and UAV strikes across the depth of Ukraine. RF claims of disrupting logistics in Kupiansk indicate efforts to hinder UA defensive capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Maintain Pressure on Borders: Sustain cross-border attacks and limited ground activity in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts to fix UA forces and prevent redeployment to other axes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Domestic Messaging: Utilize Navy Day celebrations and military exercises, along with public appearances and propaganda, to project strength and competence internally, despite significant losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Igor Artamonov's video on support for heroes also contributes to this.
  • Information Control: Actively control the information environment regarding military operations and their impact within Russia, as evidenced by legal warnings against filming AD and impacts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns' "Ужас что" photos likely also contribute to information manipulation.
• Courses of Action (COAs):
  • COA 1 (Most Likely): Continued offensive operations on the Pokrovsk axis with sustained GAB and EW support, attempting to consolidate gains and semi-encircle Pokrovsk. Simultaneous, high-intensity ground assaults on Chasiv Yar, supported by concentrated artillery and EW. Sustained stand-off strikes across Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • COA 2 (Less Likely, but possible): After failed large-scale armored assaults (e.g., Vuhledar), RF may shift to more infantry-centric probing attacks on secondary axes, combined with continued long-range strikes and EW. This would aim to conserve armor and personnel while still fixing UA forces. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Increased EW Effectiveness: The most significant adaptation is the marked increase in the effectiveness and deployment of EW systems, particularly around key offensive targets like Chasiv Yar, directly impacting UA drone operations. This suggests a concerted effort to counter Ukraine's drone advantage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• FAB-3000 M-54 UMPK Deployment: The operational deployment of the FAB-3000 in Lyptsi indicates Russia's commitment to using increasingly destructive glide bombs to level fortified positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Re-evaluation of Large-Scale Armored Assaults: The decisive defeat of the Vuhledar armored assault may lead to a temporary reduction in such large-scale, high-risk operations, potentially favoring more dispersed infantry attacks supported by heavy fire. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) The recent repelled mechanized assault on Siversk (Operatyvnyi ZSU video) reinforces this pattern of vulnerability for large RF armored formations.
• Unit Reorganization (Naval Infantry): The reported plan to convert naval infantry brigades into divisions suggests a long-term strategic adaptation to increase the combat power and doctrinal flexibility of these units, potentially for future amphibious or coastal operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Increased Internal Information Control: RF is actively seeking to control the narrative by issuing warnings against filming military incidents, indicating an adaptation to public information dissemination. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kupiansk Logistics Targeting: RF's claimed disruption of logistics in Kupiansk suggests an adaptive focus on interdicting UA supply lines, likely using precision strikes and possibly enhanced reconnaissance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Ammunition & Fuel: Still assessed as sufficient to support current operational tempo, including high rates of artillery and GAB employment. However, the confirmed damage to railway infrastructure in Volgograd due to UAV debris could impact long-term rail logistics if sustained, especially for the southern axes. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Personnel: Continued reliance on recruitment from correctional facilities (penal battalions) and high-paying contracts (military recruitment ads - Dvа майора video) suggests ongoing challenges in traditional recruitment and voluntary enlistment. This points to a reliance on quantity over quality for front-line personnel. The medical video showing skull trauma (Colonelcassad) highlights the ongoing severity of casualties. Igor Artamonov's video on social services for heroes indicates an emphasis on post-service care, likely to encourage recruitment and maintain morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Materiel: The observed destruction of 12-15 armored vehicles near Vuhledar and recent losses in Siversk (118th Mechanized Brigade) indicates significant localized materiel loss. Overall RF production and stockpiles appear sufficient to replace losses for the current intensity of conflict. Continued appeals for drones by RF units indicate localized deficiencies in specific equipment. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Naval Infrastructure: Naval exercises and commissioning indicate continued investment in naval forces, despite security concerns leading to the cancellation of the Navy Day parade in St. Petersburg, implying a degree of vulnerability to UA maritime drone attacks. The public unveiling of a naval commander bust suggests a focus on military heritage and internal morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• Tactical Level: The Vuhledar failure and the repelled Siversk mechanized assault point to persistent issues in tactical-level combined arms coordination, suggesting that while specific units may perform well, large-scale complex operations remain a challenge for RF forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Operational/Strategic Level: Putin's continued public appearances (Kronstadt, naval exercises, medal ceremony), coupled with official statements from MoD Russia and TASS, indicate centralized strategic command and control. The decision to cancel the Navy Day parade due to security concerns and the public recognition of the "Admiral Grigorovich" commander reflect a pragmatic adaptation to perceived threats, indicating a functional C2 decision-making process. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns' video commentary and Kotsnews' "RENDEZVOUS" event indicate a continued focus on public relations and shaping opinion from the RF side.
• Hybrid Operations: The combination of traditional military operations with EW and information campaigns (e.g., RF milbloggers contradicting UA AD claims, new prohibitions on filming AD systems) indicates a coordinated multi-domain C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Defensive Posture: UAF maintains a resilient defensive posture across most axes, effectively repelling numerous RF assaults daily (e.g., Sumy, Kherson, Pokrovsk, Siversk). DShV photos demonstrate well-equipped, professional personnel, indicative of sustained readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Air Defense: UAF air defense demonstrates high effectiveness against RF UAVs (94% interception rate), particularly in urban areas like Odesa, though heavy mixed missile/drone attacks continue to inflict damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Drone Capabilities: Ukrainian forces continue to effectively employ drones for reconnaissance, strike (FPV, GABs), and tactical engagements. However, the increasing effectiveness of RF EW systems on key axes (Chasiv Yar) presents a new and significant challenge to UA drone dominance. Demand for 1000 interceptor drones per day (Zelenskyy statement) and incoming AI-powered drone strike kits suggest an adaptive and innovative approach to maintaining drone superiority. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Offensive Capabilities: Limited local offensive actions have been observed (e.g., Zaporizhzhia, Sumy), indicating capacity for tactical counter-attacks and consolidation of positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Logistics & Sustainment: Dependence on foreign military aid for advanced systems (Patriot, AI-powered drones) remains critical. Domestic production of explosives is scaling up, indicating efforts towards self-sufficiency. Appeals for Starlink and drones by UA units suggest ongoing resource requirements at the tactical level. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Training & Morale: Continued training efforts for assault troops ("Skala") indicate ongoing force generation and skill development. Celebration of Medical Worker's Day highlights efforts to maintain morale and acknowledge crucial support services. The DShV (Air Assault Forces) public messaging emphasizes teamwork ("coordinated team wins"), bolstering unit cohesion and morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:
  • Vuhledar: Decisive defeat of a large-scale RF armored assault, inflicting significant materiel and personnel losses (12-15 armored vehicles). This demonstrates effective UA anti-tank and combined arms defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy: Liberation of Kindrativka by 225th Separate Assault Battalion, eliminating 3 RF battalions and 1 commander. Ongoing assault on Oleksiyivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia: Successful local offensive by 1st Assault Battalion of 210th Separate Assault Regiment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAV Interception: Continued high rates of successful interception of RF UAVs across various oblasts, particularly Odesa. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk: Successful strike on RF HQ in Donetsk (Zasyadko mine). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Siversk: 54th Mechanized Brigade and 81st Airmobile Brigade repelled a massed mechanized assault, inflicting significant losses on RF armored vehicles and personnel (Operatyvnyi ZSU video). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pokrovsk: 118th Mechanized Brigade repelled a mechanized assault, destroying a tank, two BMPs, and four other vehicles/carriers, eliminating 38 RF personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Setbacks:
  • EW Impact: Significant degradation of UA UAS operations due to enhanced RF EW capabilities on the Chasiv Yar axis. This is a critical tactical setback requiring immediate counter-measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Civilian Casualties & Infrastructure Damage: Continued high number of civilian casualties and destruction of residential and commercial infrastructure across multiple oblasts (Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Cherkasy, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia) from RF strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pokrovsk Axis Penetration: Partial enemy penetration between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, and RF intent to semi-encircle Pokrovsk, represents a concerning development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Logistics Interdiction (Kupiansk): RF claims of successful targeting of Ukrainian logistics in Kupiansk, if accurate, represent a significant operational challenge for sustaining forces in that sector. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Air Defense Systems: Continued need for advanced air defense systems (Patriots) and interceptor missiles to counter persistent RF air and missile attacks.
• Counter-EW Capabilities: Urgent requirement for effective counter-EW systems and tactics to mitigate the growing threat to UA drone operations, especially on key offensive axes.
• Drones: High demand for FPV and reconnaissance drones (Zelenskyy's call for 1000 interceptor drones per day, appeals from 7th Division, 43rd OMBr, 110 OMBr). Incoming AI-powered drone strike kits will boost strike capabilities.
• Artillery Ammunition: Ongoing need for sustained artillery ammunition supply to maintain fire superiority and support defensive/offensive operations.
• Personnel & Training: Continuous need for force generation and specialized training, especially for assault units and drone operators.
• Logistics: Ensuring secure logistical routes and supplies for frontline units and civilian populations, particularly in areas experiencing infrastructure damage (e.g., water supply in Donetsk Oblast). The claimed RF targeting of logistics in Kupiansk further exacerbates this constraint.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Narratives:
  • Victimhood/Justification: RF milbloggers continue to portray Ukraine as attacking civilians (e.g., bus in Sumy, ambulance in Zaporizhzhia, children's memorial in Donetsk), aiming to justify their actions and dehumanize Ukrainian forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns' dubious claim about Israel/Iran conflict also fits this pattern of spreading narratives that support RF's broader geopolitical framing. Alex Parker Returns' "Ужас что" posts and "Все хорошо" video appear to be part of this general narrative, though their specific content is unclear without translation.
  • Ukrainian Weakness/Failure: RF sources highlight claimed Ukrainian losses (e.g., Patriot system destruction, high UAV shoot-down claims, disruption of logistics in Kupiansk) and internal issues (e.g., NABU/SAP reform criticism, "looting" claims in Kursk) to undermine UA morale and international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Strength/Competence: Emphasis on military achievements (e.g., advances on Pokrovsk, successful AD, naval exercises, new submarine commissioning, Naval Infantry brigade-to-division conversion, Putin's award) aims to project an image of a capable and victorious military to domestic and international audiences. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The TASS reporting of Putin congratulating the frigate commander and visiting Kronstadt reinforces this. Military recruitment advertisements (Dvа майора) and Igor Artamonov's video on social services for heroes also contribute to this narrative of strength and opportunity. RF MoD unveiling a bust of Admiral Ushakov reinforces naval tradition and competence.
  • Internal Stability/Putin's Popularity: Putin's public appearances and celebratory events (Navy Day) are utilized to reinforce his strong leadership and national unity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Control: The public release of legal warnings against filming military incidents (Colonelcassad) indicates a deliberate effort to control information and combat internal dissent or unwanted imagery, suggesting a recognition of the power of visual media. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UA Narratives:
  • RF Attrition/Failures: UAF and affiliated channels emphasize RF losses (e.g., Vuhledar armored column, Kindrativka liberation, repelled Siversk and Pokrovsk mechanized assaults) to boost friendly morale and demonstrate effective defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Atrocities/War Crimes: Highlighting civilian casualties and destruction from RF strikes aims to maintain international sympathy and pressure for aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • International Support: Emphasis on incoming military aid and diplomatic engagements (Zelenskyy-von der Leyen call) to reinforce the narrative of continued international solidarity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Resilience and Unity: Celebrating national events (Medical Worker's Day) and showcasing military training efforts to foster national pride and combat spirit. Historical and cultural content (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) also contributes to this. The DShV (Air Assault Forces) messaging emphasizes teamwork and professionalism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Political Messaging: Zelenskyy's approval of new NSDC sanctions and discussions on anti-corruption reforms are likely aimed at demonstrating continued governance and addressing international concerns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukrainian Public:
  • Resilience: Continued resilience despite daily attacks, as evidenced by routine civic life and expressions of national pride. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Fatigue/Impact of Attacks: High civilian casualties and infrastructure damage likely contribute to widespread fatigue and hardship, but not yet to a collapse in morale. Continued queues for water in damaged areas (Chystiakove) highlight the humanitarian toll. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Support for Military: Ongoing appeals for donations for military units and medical support demonstrate continued public backing for the armed forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The DShV photos contribute to a positive perception of military professionalism.
• Russian Public/Internal:
  • State-Controlled Narrative Acceptance: General public sentiment likely remains largely shaped by state media, accepting narratives of RF military success and justified actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Localized Discontent: Reports of low-quality dry rations, mobilization issues, and corruption arrests suggest underlying, localized discontent within military and civilian spheres. The medical video and recruitment ads suggest ongoing efforts to manage the human cost of the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Impact of UAV Attacks: Increased UAV attacks on Russian territory (Volgograd, Krasnodar, Rostov, Nevinnomyssk, Tambov, Leningrad) are likely generating concern and possibly impacting perception of security, leading to measures like cancelled parades and increased information control measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The Volgograd railway infrastructure damage (STERNENKO) highlights real economic and logistical impacts. The completion of search and rescue operations in Saratov after a gas explosion, while not military, adds to a backdrop of internal challenges for RF.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Ukraine:
  • Continued Military Aid: US $330M package, German Patriot systems, Lithuanian Patriot funding, and incoming AI-powered drone kits demonstrate continued, though perhaps slower, military support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Engagement: Zelenskyy's call with Ursula von der Leyen highlights ongoing diplomatic efforts to secure further EU integration and sanctions against Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Corruption Pressure: International focus on Ukrainian anti-corruption infrastructure (NABU/SAP reform) remains a key factor in continued financial and political support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia:
  • Isolation: Continued international isolation from Western nations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Non-Western Alliances: Increased communication and potential cooperation with North Korea (flights, sea links) signals a deepening of non-Western alliances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Serbia Stance: Serbia's stated refusal to impose sanctions against Russia and commitment to independent foreign policy is a diplomatic win for Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Black Sea Region: Russian naval exercises and claims regarding the Black Sea region demonstrate continued intent to project power and assert influence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Other Relevant International Dynamics:
  • Austria's NATO Consideration: Austrian Foreign Minister's statement on discussing abandoning neutrality and joining NATO due to RF aggressive policy represents a significant potential shift in European security architecture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cambodia-Thailand Conflict: The complex situation and Trump's involvement highlight broader geopolitical actors and their potential influence on regional conflicts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• Pokrovsk Axis Offensive: RF forces will continue their high-intensity offensive operations on the Pokrovsk axis, attempting to achieve a semi-encirclement of Pokrovsk within the next 72 hours. This will involve sustained ground assaults supported by heavy GAB strikes and concentrated EW to suppress UA drone activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Chasiv Yar Assault: A concentrated ground assault on Chasiv Yar, likely by elements of the 98th VDV Division and supported by the new effective EW, will commence within the next 48 hours. This will be preceded by intense artillery and air preparation, combined with aggressive EW to blind UA defenses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Persistent Stand-Off Strikes: RF will maintain a high tempo of missile and Shahed UAV strikes across Ukraine, particularly targeting Odesa, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, to degrade infrastructure, disrupt logistics, and psychologically impact the population. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Defensive Consolidation (Avdiivka): Forces west of Avdiivka will remain in a defensive posture, focusing on fortification and repelling localized UA counter-attacks, while reconstituting combat power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Limited Probing Attacks (Sumy/Kharkiv/Kherson): RF will continue limited ground probing attacks and cross-border shelling in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Kherson Oblasts to fix UA forces and prevent redeployment. The claimed logistics disruption in Kupiansk suggests continued focus on this type of interdiction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• Breakthrough on Pokrovsk Axis: A successful RF breakthrough and full encirclement of Pokrovsk, potentially leveraging deep infiltration elements and overwhelming GAB/EW support, leading to a significant loss of territory and potential collapse of UA forward defenses in the sector. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Successful Capture of Chasiv Yar: Overrunning UAF defenses in Chasiv Yar, which would grant RF significant tactical advantage for further advances towards Kramatorsk-Sloviansk, disrupting UA defensive lines in Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Massive Coordinated Multi-Domain Attack: A highly coordinated, large-scale combined arms offensive on a key axis (e.g., Pokrovsk or Chasiv Yar) integrating ground, air, missile, UAV, and highly effective EW assets, overwhelming UA defenses at a critical point. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
• Escalated Maritime/Hybrid Attacks: A significant increase in naval drone (USV) attacks on critical UA Black Sea port infrastructure, combined with intensified hybrid operations (sabotage, cyber-attacks) on Ukrainian rear areas, aiming to cripple supply lines and public confidence. This could be coupled with increased internal sabotage efforts within Russia, aimed at critical infrastructure like railway lines. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Immediate (0-24 hours): Continued high intensity of RF aerial attacks (GAB, Shaheds) across the front. Expect further Shahed attacks on Odesa and Kharkiv. High probability of increased EW activity on Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar axes. UAF to prioritize defensive actions and counter-EW measures. Continued RF ground assaults on Pokrovsk and Siversk, likely in small, mechanized groups or dismounted infantry.
  • Decision Point: Deployment of rapid counter-EW teams or specialized drone units to affected areas. Decision on immediate counter-fire against detected RF assault groups.
• Short Term (24-72 hours): Expect major RF ground assaults on Chasiv Yar and continued pressure on the Pokrovsk axis. RF will likely attempt to exploit any perceived weaknesses caused by EW disruption. UA forces will face intense fighting to hold current lines. Continued cross-border attacks into Sumy Oblast.
  • Decision Point: Allocation of reserves, targeted artillery, and precision fires to attrit RF assault waves and support embattled units. Consideration of pre-emptive strikes on RF concentration areas if intelligence allows.
• Medium Term (72 hours - 1 week): RF will attempt to consolidate any gains made from offensive pushes. UA will assess losses and potential for localized counter-attacks, especially where RF forces are consolidating. International aid delivery timelines become critical. Focus on disrupting RF logistics, especially rail links impacted by drone attacks.
  • Decision Point: Assessment of materiel losses and reinforcement requirements for units. Coordination with international partners on expedited aid delivery. Strategic decision on whether to launch limited counter-offensives against attritted RF forces.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• RF EW Capabilities: Specific technical details (frequency bands, power output, jamming profiles, mobility) of newly deployed and effective RF EW systems, particularly on the Chasiv Yar axis.
  • Collection Requirement: SIGINT (Electronic Support Measures - ESM), COMINT, reconnaissance drone overflights (if possible), HUMINT.
• RF Offensive Grouping Details: Precise order of battle, personnel strength, and materiel composition of RF assault groups preparing for the Chasiv Yar offensive, especially regarding newly introduced equipment or units.
  • Collection Requirement: Overhead ISR (satellite, UAV), long-range ground reconnaissance, SIGINT.
• RF Strategic Intent for Naval Infantry Conversion: Detailed analysis of the doctrinal implications and timelines for the conversion of RF naval infantry brigades to divisions. What new capabilities or operational shifts are intended, and where might they be deployed?
  • Collection Requirement: OSINT (RF military publications, expert analysis), long-term SIGINT monitoring of naval communications.
• Impact of Domestic RF Issues on Frontline Effectiveness: Are reports of low-quality rations, conscription issues, or internal dissent (e.g., General Popov situation, public response to AD information controls) directly impacting morale, discipline, or combat effectiveness of frontline units?
  • Collection Requirement: HUMINT, open-source analysis of RF milblogger sentiment, POW interrogations.
• UA Anti-Corruption Reforms Impact: What is the specific and measurable impact of the "NABU and SAP anti-corruption scandal" on international aid and diplomatic relations? What are the EU's "severe punishments"?
  • Collection Requirement: OSINT (official EU/US statements), diplomatic reporting.
• RF Railway Network Vulnerabilities: Detailed assessment of RF railway network vulnerabilities to drone attacks, particularly in strategic logistical corridors for southern and eastern axes. What are the points of failure and repair timelines?
  • Collection Requirement: OSINT (commercial satellite imagery, local reports), HUMINT.
• Kupiansk Logistics Situation: Independent verification of RF claims regarding successful interdiction of Ukrainian logistics in Kupiansk. If confirmed, assess the extent of disruption and UA's compensatory measures.
  • Collection Requirement: ISR, HUMINT, OSINT from local sources.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

• Counter-EW Operations:
  • IMMEDIATE ACTION: Prioritize SIGINT and HUMINT collection to identify and pinpoint the exact locations and operational parameters of newly effective RF EW systems on the Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk axes.
  • TACTICAL ACTION: Task long-range precision fires (HIMARS/GMLRS) and artillery to suppress or destroy confirmed RF EW emitters as a priority. Develop and implement tactical countermeasures for UAS operations (e.g., higher flight altitudes, burst transmissions, adaptive frequency hopping, anti-jamming payloads, alternative navigation).
  • R&D REQUEST: Expedite development and deployment of UA counter-EW systems capable of disrupting RF jamming and spoofing.
• Exploit RF Weaknesses (Vuhledar & Siversk Aftermath):
  • TACTICAL ACTION: Increase localized reconnaissance and probing attacks on the Vuhledar and Siversk axes to assess the demoralization and disorganization of RF units that suffered heavy losses. Continue to target attritted RF armored formations.
  • IO CAMPAIGN: Immediately launch an aggressive information operations campaign disseminating imagery and details of the decisive RF armored defeats at Vuhledar and Siversk to degrade enemy morale and bolster UA and international confidence. Target RF milblogger channels and relevant military forums.
• Strengthen Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar Defenses:
  • OPERATIONAL ACTION: Reinforce key defensive sectors on the Pokrovsk axis, particularly against potential semi-encirclement attempts. Prioritize rapid deployment of additional anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) teams and minefield reinforcements along anticipated RF armored thrust lines.
  • OPERATIONAL ACTION: Enhance forward air defense and mobile air defense assets around Chasiv Yar to counter concentrated RF air and GAB strikes preceding ground assaults.
• Drone Doctrine Adaptation:
  • TACTICAL ACTION: Revise and rapidly disseminate updated UAS operational procedures and tactics to account for the heightened RF EW threat. Emphasize multi-drone swarm attacks, synchronized with artillery, to overwhelm EW capabilities.
  • LOGISTICS ACTION: Accelerate procurement and distribution of both AI-powered drone strike kits and basic FPV drones to meet the President's stated requirements and maintain combat superiority in this domain.
• Protect Critical Infrastructure & Disrupt RF Logistics:
  • DEFENSIVE ACTION: Enhance layered air defense and security measures for critical civilian infrastructure, particularly in Odesa, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, given the continued high volume of RF strikes.
  • OFFENSIVE ACTION (Deep Operations): Prioritize targeting RF railway infrastructure in depth (e.g., Volgograd Oblast and similar hubs) to disrupt logistical flows to the front. Focus on choke points and electrical substations serving railway lines.
  • CIVIL SUPPORT: Coordinate with civilian authorities to ensure robust emergency response capabilities and continuity of essential services (e.g., water supply in Donetsk Oblast).
  • LOGISTICS REVIEW: Conduct an urgent review of logistics and supply routes for the Kupiansk direction to mitigate the impact of claimed RF interdiction efforts. Consider alternative routes or enhanced protection.

---

END OF REPORT