Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide threat from RF missile and UAV attacks persists. Guided Aerial Bombs (GABs) remain a significant threat in frontline areas, with RF tactical aviation activity observed in southeastern direction. UAF Air Force reports high interception rates against RF air assets, with 78/83 (94%) enemy UAVs reportedly shot down or suppressed overnight (26-27 JUL 25). This is corroborated by ASTRA (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Starlink connectivity experienced outages across the entire front line, largely resolved, but some units still report impacts. Ukraine's SVR and GUR have provided President Zelenskyy with reports on RF intentions for Summer-Autumn operations. EU adopted final decision on "roaming visa-free travel" with Ukraine. Zelenskyy emphasizes the need for 1000 interceptor drones per day and support for universities in frontline regions. Lithuanian Minister of Defense has confirmed their intent to join the international initiative to procure Patriot systems for Ukraine, pledging €30 million. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provided operational information as of 270800Z JUL 25 (08:00 local). Ukraine is reportedly 8th globally in military spending, similar to France, but less than UK and Germany. Total estimated RF losses as of 270404Z JUL 25: +920 personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UAF General Staff provides daily figures). Minute of silence observed across Ukraine daily at 0900Z to honor fallen defenders. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UAF General Staff, KMVA, Zaporizhzhia OVA). RBC-Ukraine has reported on Ukraine's energy minister's statement regarding power supply issues in the regions, indicating ongoing assessments of civilian infrastructure resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Odesa Oblast: Confirmed destruction of a residential building and market due to RF drone attacks, with civilian casualties. Explosion on a Ukrainian dredge ship resulted in fatalities. Enemy reconnaissance UAV detected in Black Sea waters. Three (3) new RF "moped" (Shahed) type UAVs detected in the vicinity of Snake Island, with a course towards Tatarbunary, indicating an imminent drone strike threat to Southern Odesa Oblast from the Black Sea. UAF Air Force confirms group of enemy strike drones from Black Sea towards Southern Odesa. Reports indicate "minus" for mopeds from the sea, implying successful interception or failure of the recent drone group targeting Odesa. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Mykolaivsky Vanok" reports "остаток по мопедам", which indicates a final assessment of the recent drone attack on Mykolaiv Oblast, likely confirming the situation is clear or the drones were dealt with. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New enemy strike UAV group inbound from Black Sea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Massive combined attack with missiles and drones confirmed, resulting in at least 2 fatalities and injuries. "Epicenter" commercial/industrial facility and a tea brand's production facility destroyed in Kamianske/Dnipro. Continuous shelling of Nikopol, Myrivska, and Marhanets communities. RF claims "Vostok" group liberated Maliyivka. Artillery shelling caused 1 fatality in Chervonohryhorivka. RF launched KAABs onto Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New reports indicate Russians attacked two districts of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast since evening, with photos from RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU confirming damage and casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Threat of RF aerial munitions, specifically for Synelnykivskyi district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Axis): RF claims significant advances and capture of multiple settlements (Novoekonomichne, Zverevo, Aleksandro-Kalinovo, Zelenyy Hay). RF claims "fights began on the southern and southwestern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk" (Pokrovsk), and deep infiltration by saboteurs. Heavy shelling and GAB strikes on Pokrovsk confirmed. UAF General Staff reports numerous clashes across the axis. 2 killed, 14 injured from Russian shelling in Konstantinovka, with forced evacuation expanding. UAF successfully struck an RF HQ in Donetsk (Zasyadko mine). RF claims "fire bag" for UAF in Yuzhny quarter of Chasiv Yar, with 98th VDV claiming liberation of Shevchenko and Pivdenny micro-districts. RF introducing new 152mm "Hyacinth-K" howitzer. UAF (MURAMASA) continues successful engagements against RF ground probes on Kostiantynivka axis. UAF Air Force reports KAABs launched on Donetsk Oblast. DeepState map has been updated. A video from Chystiakove (Torez), Donetsk Oblast, shows civilians queuing for water, indicating significant infrastructure damage or supply issues. RF milblogger "Voenkor Kotenok" posts a map of the Konstantinovka direction, indicating continued RF focus on this axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF milblogger "Voenkor Kotenok" posts a map showing the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, indicating continued RF pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports sniper operations by 299th Regiment, 98th VDV Division on the Kostiantynivka axis. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) This indicates continued RF VDV presence and precision fire focus. TASS reports RF forces advanced in Fedorivka, DNR, and consolidated positions on the eastern outskirts of the settlement. (CONFIDENCE: LOW, RF claims often exaggerated). TASS posts video of RF "Vostok" artillery destroying UAF dugouts in DNR. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM, RF claim, but video confirms artillery strike on fortified position using aerial observation, likely drone, and thermal imaging). TASS also claims that UA forces have reduced artillery strikes due to the use of "ZooPark" radar systems by "Vostok" reconnaissance units. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim, but video confirms the operation of a counter-battery radar system). TASS reports an RF MLRS "Grad" crew destroyed a UAF fortified area on the Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk) direction. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim, video shows launch and impacts but specific location/effectiveness unverified). DeepState reports the 47th Separate Artillery Brigade (OABr) destroying enemy infantry in Zverovo, south of Pokrovsk, implying successful UAF counter-fire against RF advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UAF unit report with BDA indication). Operational ZSU posts video footage from the 82nd Air Assault Brigade (ODShBr), showing their drone operators, 'Fakhivtsi', destroying enemy dugouts with precision drops. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UAF BDA with unit identification). ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts a military map titled "Okhvat Konstantinovki," indicating continued RF encirclement efforts on the Konstantinovka axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF milblogger map, but represents stated intent). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shows significant damage to a multi-story building in Avdiivka, with military vehicles present, and mentions RF attempting to rebuild a "wedding palace" amidst ruins, indicating RF efforts at normalization/propaganda in captured areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Video from Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shows civilians evacuating Dobropillia due to shelling, indicating continued impact on civilian population and possible RF advance in Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Video from Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shows significant damage to a residential area in Rodinske, Pokrovsk district, following shelling, confirming continued civilian impact on this axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Voenkor Kotenok reports information that the AFU field headquarters in the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) area has been evacuated. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF milblogger claim, needs corroboration).
• Cherkasy Oblast: RF missile attack injured multiple civilians (rising to 12) and damaged a cemetery. New threat of enemy strike UAVs from the northeast.
• Kharkiv Oblast: RF sources claim "North" group continued creating a "security strip." First operational use of a FAB-3000 M-54 UMPK against a Ukrainian strongpoint in Lyptsi. Positional fighting continues in Vovchansk. KAAB hit a multi-story building and a medical facility, causing multiple injuries (up to 17). RF drone attacks on Kharkiv confirmed. SBU detained a Russian spotter. KAABs launched on Kharkiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports KAABs incoming on Kharkiv. Overnight, Kharkiv was attacked by 15 Shahed UAVs, 4 Guided Aerial Bombs, and 2 ballistic missiles, causing fires and damage to a sports facility and Kyivskyi District Department of Internal Affairs building. UAF reports elimination of RF regiment commander (83rd Motorized Rifle Regiment, 69th Motorized Rifle Division). Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Rusyn Yar, Mykolayivka, Rodynske, Sukhyy Yar, Biletske, Suvorove, Pokrovsk, Shakhove. Russian milbloggers (Operatsiya Z) claim intense fighting near Kupyansk, with the 27th Brigade using incendiary munitions against UAF infantry positions. Explosions reported in Kharkiv, confirmed by Suspilne, Syniehubov, and Terekhov. Kyivskyi district reportedly struck by enemy UAV. "Mykolaivsky Vanok" confirms a "moped" (Shahed) strike. STERNENKO reports strike hit a civilian enterprise in Kyivskyi district that has been non-operational for several years. Syniehubov later confirms a group of strike drones in Kharkiv Oblast and a series of explosions in Kyivskyi District, attributing the attack to "Geran-2" type UAVs. Terekhov reports Kharkiv under massive drone attack, specifically mentioning a strike on Shevchenkivskyi district. Video from RBC-Ukraine shows a fire in Malodanylivska community after drone strikes in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating damage and ongoing effects of the attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Head of Malodanylivska community reports impacts near private housing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) This indicates continued RF targeting of civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports movement of enemy drones from Luhansk Oblast towards Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Oleh Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reports that during the past day, Kharkiv city and 6 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were subjected to enemy strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU have released photos detailing the aftermath of overnight drone attacks on Kharkiv, confirming damage and firefighting operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Visual confirmation of damage). ASTRA reports that local authorities claim Russia attacked Kharkiv Oblast overnight with 10 missiles, 9 air bombs, and 35 Shaheds, confirming a massive combined arms strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Local authority claim, corroborating previous reports of extensive damage). UAF Air Force reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs targeting Kharkiv and Starokostiantyniv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Oleh Syniehubov celebrates Medical Worker's Day, indicating a focus on civilian morale and professional recognition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). OTU "Kharkiv" reports on the situation in its operational zone as of morning, July 27, 2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia city has been cleared, but missile danger remains for the oblast. RF Milbloggers claim RF forces "liberated Kamyanske" and are "storming Plavni, advancing further" towards Stepnohirsk. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV heading towards Zaporizhzhia from the south. Civilian casualties confirmed (1 killed, 3 injured) from shelling/drone attacks. Two fatalities in Primorske from FPV drone attack. UAF Air Force confirms GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF UAV dropped munition near Zaporizhzhia NPP. Ongoing RF attacks on Orikhiv and Huliaippole directions. Ukrainian soldiers from 7th Division appeal for drone and Starlink donations. RF MoD reports "Giatsint-B" gun neutralized a hostile UAV control post. TASS and Mash on Donbas are reporting a claimed UA drone attack on an ambulance in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, injuring a patient and driver. UAF Air Force reports KAABs inbound on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been cleared. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has issued an urgent warning (🚨УВАГА🚨), likely related to ongoing threats or a new alert. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New reports from Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration indicate occupants launched 810 strikes on 12 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast within the last day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) A video appeal from the 7th Division of the Zaporizhzhia direction (RF forces) requesting drones and Starlink has been shared by "Dnevnik Desantnika", indicating resource deficiencies for RF units on this axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF internal appeal). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration and ASTRA report two fatalities after bodies were found in a destroyed building in Stepnohirsk due to RF MLRS attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBC-Ukraine reports "ATESH" partisans disabled a railway branch in Zaporizhzhia direction, with video and photos of a burning utility box next to tracks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms the RF MLRS strike on Stepnohirsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO confirms two fatalities in Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, due to RF MLRS attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Kryvyi Rih: Situation assessed as controlled. Infrastructure projects ongoing. Enemy reconnaissance UAV activity reported. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Mayor Vilkul's statement). Oleksandr Vilkul (Mayor of Kryvyi Rih) has posted photos greeting medical workers on their professional holiday, indicating a focus on civilian morale and internal recognition, not direct military activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBC-Ukraine reports a TCC (Territorial Recruitment Center) officer physically assaulted a man in Kryvyi Rih, with police investigating. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - internal UA issue).
• Mykolaiv Oblast: RF drone attacks reported overnight, causing significant fires. RF milbloggers claim destruction of a Bayraktar production facility (low confidence). SBU prevented a dual terrorist act. Russian drone attacked a Norwegian humanitarian organization's base. Mykolaiv may face water disruption. DeepState posts video of successful engagements on the Kinburn Spit. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports "general regarding mopeds" which indicates an overall summary for Mykolaiv Oblast, likely reflecting the resolution or status of recent drone attacks in the region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Mykolaivsky Vanok" reports "остаток по мопедам", indicating the final count or disposition of recent Shahed drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAF Air Force reports threat of enemy strike UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sumy Oblast: Continuous RF drone activity (Shaheds, reconnaissance UAVs) and GAB launches. UAF repelled 25 Russian army assaults yesterday in Kursk and North Slobozhansky direction. One fatality reported near Znob-Novhorodske. DeepState reports 225th Separate Assault Battalion liberated Kindrativka, eliminating 3 RF battalions and 1 battalion commander. TASS claims UAF only remains on southern outskirts of Yunakivka. Overnight, RF launched drones, KAABs, and missiles at Shostka, causing partial power and water loss in Sumy city and district. Alleged drone attack on Sumy Oblast Administration building. UAF forces able to dislodge RF troops from Kindrativka. UAF is assaulting Oleksiyivka. RF milbloggers (Operatsiya Z) claim VDV are destroying enemy infantry and artillery, advancing towards Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) This indicates continued RF pressure in the border region and potential for localized tactical advances. RBC-Ukraine reports RF strike on Sumy Oblast caused civilian casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Dva Mayora" also mentions the Sumy direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAF Air Force reports a new group of enemy strike UAVs inbound from Bryansk Oblast towards Northern Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports updated ISW maps show Ukrainian forces advancing in Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAF Air Force reports group of "Shaheds" in northern and central Sumy Oblast moving south. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that Ukrainian special operations forces (SSO) unit "Bravo" is being redeployed to the Sumy direction. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) This indicates a potential UAF reinforcement or preparation for specialized operations in the Sumy region. "Operatsiya Z" (Voenkor Rus Vesny) posts a video claiming "Rubicon" is burning NATO armored vehicles and tanks, supporting the offensive in Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - RF propaganda, unverified claim). Colonelcassad is organizing a collection of aid for units actively fighting in the Sumy direction, supporting three units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - indicates continued RF commitment and activity in the Sumy direction). "Operatsiya Z" reports heavy fighting on the Sumy front, with the enemy (UAF) deploying reserves to Kindrativka and Oleksiyivka, indicating intensified engagements in this sector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAF Air Force reports "Shaheds" on the west of Sumy Oblast are now heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - New trajectory indicates extended threat). UAF Air Force reports KAABs launched on Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Kherson Oblast: RF claims aviation strike on a UAF HQ. GAB launch on Kherson. RF reconnaissance UAVs reported. UAF repelled 5 Russian army assaults yesterday in Kherson direction. RF dropped explosives from a drone on an ambulance crew. A 9-year-old child injured from RF shelling in Bilozerka. RF MoD reports "Giatsint-B" gun neutralized a hostile UAV control post. Russian milblogger "Воин DV" claims the 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, 36th Army, Vostok Group of Forces, destroyed a UA vehicle in the area of Yanvarske. Video evidence shows a successful drone strike on a pickup truck. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Yanvarske is in Kherson Oblast. Colonelcassad posts video of 20th Army UAV operators destroying a Ukrainian robotic platform. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) This indicates RF is actively targeting UA robotic systems and has the capability to do so, likely through FPV or other tactical UAVs. Colonelcassad posts a video showing impacts on the GUVPD building in Kherson, indicating a recent strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - visual evidence). The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report continued RF assault actions in the delta island zone of the Dnipro River and active use of aviation to strike UAF positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report continued engagement of enemy locations, firing positions, and rear areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UAF statement on offensive actions). Dva Mayora posts a video message regarding the Kherson direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad reports a collection for "stormtroopers of DNR," "St. George" brigade, and reconnaissance units from the Kherson direction for body armor, helmets, and medicine, indicating continued RF efforts to sustain forces on this axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports one person died and five were injured in a Ukrainian FPV drone attack on a vehicle in Nova Mayachka, Kherson Oblast, as stated by Saldo. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF official claim, but confirms drone activity and casualties). ASTRA reports two fatalities in Kherson Oblast due to Ukrainian attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Other Eastern Axes: UAF General Staff reports numerous clashes on Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka directions. RF claims advances near Kolodyazi, Yampolivka, and Dibrova (Lyman), and Holubivka (Kupyansk). Increased RF EW activity observed in Lyman direction. RF forces significantly advanced in Serebryansky forestry and took control of a pioneer camp. UAF 63rd Brigade's drone unit eliminated 23 enemy personnel near Torske. DeepState posts drone footage from the 155th Brigade showing a repelled RF assault north of Shevchenko. Footage appears to show strikes on an RF vehicle and personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatyvnyi ZSU reports significant RF losses (personal and equipment) near Siversk. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) This indicates successful UAF defensive operations in this sector. New message from General Staff of UAF (Genshtab ZSU) includes a map graphic illustrating a military situation with text overlays and red shading indicating areas of control or influence. This indicates ongoing operational planning and assessment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatyvnyi ZSU posts an update from the General Staff as of 08:00 (local time), confirming continued operational information sharing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad posts video showing drone operators from the 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade and the 5th Guards Tank Brigade, 36th Army, "Vostok" Group of Forces, destroying well-camouflaged enemy targets in Maliyivka. This indicates active RF drone operations by specific units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Video from the 46th Airmobile Brigade (DShV) of the AFU, titled "46 Informing," details enemy losses including personnel, armored vehicles, drones, and artillery systems, highlighting successful defensive actions on the Pokrovsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UAF unit report with BDA). UAF Air Force reports KAABs launched on Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) posted video footage claiming destruction of a Ukrainian "Novator" armored vehicle in the Filyi area. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim with visual, needs independent verification of location and effectiveness). Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition reports on the destruction of a Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage group (DRG) near Aleksandrogad (western Donetsk People's Republic) by "Vostok" group forces using precision drone drops. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF milblogger claim, video shows thermal drone strike on moving targets, implying successful engagement of personnel. Verification of location and specific unit is difficult). Colonelcassad posts a video of "South" group special forces conducting combat operations in the Siversk direction, showing a destroyed BMP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - video confirms destruction of an enemy BMP). Operatyvnyi ZSU posts video of 148th Separate Artillery Brigade (OABr) effectively striking RF personnel with artillery and drones in Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UAF unit report with BDA). Russian milblogger "Воин DV" has provided an update on the situation in the Southern Donetsk direction within the "Vostok" Group of Forces' area of responsibility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns reports "Vostok" group liberated Maliyivka and mocked UA defenses. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• Poltava Oblast: Enemy drone fell due to AD work. Reconnaissance UAVs on border of Kharkiv and Poltava. Threat of strike UAVs from northeast. Explosions reported in Kremenchuk area, with drones neutralized. UAVs detected moving towards Myrhorod, Poltava, and Dykanka. UAF Air Force reports groups of Shaheds from Sumy Oblast moving towards Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports damage in Poltava Oblast due to overnight drone attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Poltava TCC and SP (Territorial Recruitment Center and Social Support) was dispersed and relocated after Russian shelling. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ternopil Oblast: Grenade explosion in apartment building resulted in two fatalities.
• Khmelnytskyi Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports explosions in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Local report).
• Russia:
  • Volgograd Oblast: Flight restrictions implemented at Volgograd airport, and later lifted according to TASS. Unconfirmed reports of explosions. RBC-Ukraine reports multiple images and videos showing explosions and fires in Volgograd Oblast. "Operatsiya Z" (Russian milblogger) claims disruption to railway electrical power due to UAV debris. CAPLIENKO_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of a large fire at an oil station in Volgograd following a UAV strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) This confirms a successful UA drone strike on military-logistics infrastructure. "Военкор Котенок" (Russian milblogger) confirms an ongoing enemy drone attack on Volgograd, with debris from an intercepted drone falling near a railway substation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports drone attack on electric substation near railway in Oktyabrsky settlement, Volgograd Oblast, with video showing fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) This confirms targeting of critical infrastructure. TASS reports that passenger trains are delayed due to a UAV attack in Volgograd Oblast, as stated by the Southern Transport Prosecutor's Office. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) This confirms ongoing disruption to RF railway infrastructure. Colonelcassad further reports that trains are delayed due to power outages on the railway at Zhutovo station in Volgograd Oblast following a UAV attack, as confirmed by the Southern Transport Prosecutor's Office. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - corroborates previous reports). Operatyvnyi ZSU provides video evidence of "good UAVs" attacking an electrical substation feeding a railway in Oktyabrsky, Volgograd Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - provides visual confirmation of the strike). STERNENKO provides photo and video evidence of the Volgograd Oblast attack, confirming debris falling on the electrical substation that powers the railway and reporting train delays, consistent with previous reports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA releases images and video confirming damage to the electrical substation at Zhutovo station in Oktyabrsky district, Volgograd Oblast, following a drone attack, resulting in power disruption to railway contact lines. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Visual confirmation of damage to critical infrastructure). ASTRA confirmed receipt of a report from Privolzhskaya Railway regarding train delays due to "UAV debris" at Zhutovo station in Volgograd Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Krasnodar Krai: Multiple videos show large explosions and fires near a "Lukoil-Yugnefteprodukt Sochinskaya oil depot." RF MoD claims 39 Ukrainian UAVs shot down. Casualties reported (2 dead, 13 injured). Damage to railway station, injuring train passengers. Armavir airfield reportedly hit.
  • Kursk Oblast: Russian official signed resolution on payments to residents forced to leave homes. Ukrainian SOF engaged Russian forces. One civilian killed by drone attack. UAF repelled 25 RF assaults yesterday. Two Ukrainian UAVs shot down. RF milblogger posts a video of an elderly man claiming to be a victim of Ukrainian military actions in Sudzhansky district, Kursk region, describing looting of property. This is likely an RF information operation aimed at justifying actions or discrediting UA forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad posted video of "Anvar" unit clearing a buffer zone near Porozok and Seredyna-Buda from Ukrainian militants, indicating RF offensive/clearing operations in this border region, with strikes on UAF fortified positions and a Starlink terminal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF milblogger BDA). STERNENKO posts a video of UA_REG TEAM destroying an "aquakatcap" in Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Luhansk (Kremennaya): TASS reports "firefight" by UAF (low confidence). RF forces significantly advanced in Serebryansky forestry and took control of a pioneer camp on Lake Linevoye.
  • Rostov Oblast (Novocherkassk/Taganrog Area): Multiple explosions reported in suburbs of Taganrog and Novocherkassk due to drone attacks. Railway station building in Peschanokopskoye damaged. Two fatalities reported from a UAV attack on a vehicle. Operatsiya Z reports a surgeon from Kalmykia and his brother were killed in a UAV attack in Rostov Oblast. Videos show a damaged, burned-out SUV and a fire truck responding to a fire near a field, consistent with drone attack damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that military forces repelled a night attack on cities and districts of Rostov Oblast, with no casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF official statement). "Dva Mayora" reports on the Acting Governor of Rostov Oblast, likely concerning the drone attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - indicates local RF official response).
  • Amur Oblast: A civilian An-24 passenger plane crashed with 43 passengers and 6 crew, no survivors. Technical malfunction and human factor cited as possible causes. One black box destroyed, voice recorder accessible. RF Ministry of Emergency Situations (EMERCOM) psychologists have handled over 300 calls after the crash of the An-24 passenger plane in Amur Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) This highlights the internal impact of the crash on the RF population and the state's response. TASS reports investigators in Amur Oblast have seized the engines of the crashed An-24, with inspection of the aircraft nearing completion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS has released photos showing wreckage from the An-24 crash site, confirming the severe nature of the incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Visual confirmation of accident severity).
  • Rostov Oblast (Novoshakhtinsk): Burning shopping center. One firefighter died, one woman's body found.
  • Nevinnomyssk (Stavropol Krai): Multiple explosions confirmed from alleged drone attacks on Nevinnomyssky Azot industrial plant and Signal radio factory. Mayor claimed 37 impacts with no losses (low confidence on no damage).
  • Tambov Oblast: "Cotton" (explosions/fires) reported in the area of the Tambov Powder Plant after UAV attack.
  • RF Airports: Flight restrictions in various airports lifted after drone threats. Reports (News of Moscow) indicate significant disruption at Sheremetyevo airport, with numerous passengers stranded. TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Kaluga airport. TASS reports temporary flight restrictions lifted in Nizhny Novgorod airport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Pskov airports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) This indicates continued UA drone activity impacting a wider range of RF air hubs. New reports from TASS indicate temporary flight restrictions at Pulkovo Airport (St. Petersburg). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - indicates widening impact of UA drone activity to major RF air hubs). TASS reports Pskov Oblast governor confirmed RF AD shot down a UA UAV over the region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The Governor of Nizhny Novgorod, Gleb Nikitin, reports an unsuccessful drone attack on an industrial territory overnight, with no casualties, and specialists examining debris, indicating continued UA drone activity and RF AD responses further inland. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports that the main Russian Navy Day parade was cancelled due to security concerns, indicating a direct impact of security threats on significant public events. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA and Operatyvnyi ZSU report drones over Leningrad Oblast, with videos showing a small aircraft or drone. STERNENKO also reports UAVs attacking Leningrad Oblast, with flight board images suggesting airport disruptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns reports "drones of Khokhols" over Leningrad Oblast, Pulkovo airport halted, and naval parade in St. Petersburg cancelled. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - corroborating previous reports). TASS reports over a dozen drones destroyed in Leningrad Oblast, no casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF official statement). Военкор Котенок confirms at least 10 enemy drones destroyed in Leningrad Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports temporary flight restrictions lifted in Kaluga airport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports one civilian injured in Lomonosov district, Leningrad Oblast, from drone debris. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of "February" drones causing chaos in Leningrad Oblast and paralyzing Pulkovo airport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports Pulkovo airport has reopened for flights. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports temporary flight restrictions lifted in Pskov airport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports that the drone attack in Leningrad Oblast was repelled and the drone threat has been lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Moscow Oblast: Two drones flying towards Moscow shot down. Fog with low visibility expected. Reduced swimming areas due to water quality. "News of Moscow" (Новости Москвы) posts several photo messages about new low-rise housing development on Kasatkina Street, likely a civilian urban development project. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Civilian development). News of Moscow reports increased demand for 1990s/2000s concerts in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Bryansk Oblast: Numerous enemy UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast. RF MoD claims 12 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Crimea, Rostov, and Bryansk Oblasts. Two enemy UAVs of aircraft type were destroyed over Bryansk Oblast by RF MOD AD. TASS reports a suspect in the former Deputy Governor of Bryansk Oblast's case has confessed, indicating internal corruption cases are progressing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Saratov Oblast: Gas explosion in apartment building resulted in 7 fatalities and significant damage. Investigation opened. TASS reports highly qualified mountaineers are involved in clearing rubble in Saratov, indicating severity of the incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Crimea: Russian milbloggers (ASTRA) report the detention of a DJ in annexed Crimea for playing a song by Verka Serduchka, with a subsequent forced "apology" video showing support for the "special military operation." This indicates tightening internal security measures and efforts to suppress pro-Ukrainian sentiment. RF MoD claims 12 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Crimea, Rostov, and Bryansk Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Lipetsk Oblast: Air alert declared across the entire Lipetsk Oblast, indicating an ongoing or anticipated UAV threat. Threat of UAV attack on Yelets, Yeletsky, Izmalkovsky, Stanovlyansky, and Dolgorukovsky districts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF Governor Igor Artamonov reported "all clear" for the red level "UAV attack threat." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) This confirms the lifting of the UAV threat in Lipetsk Oblast. Igor Artamonov, Governor of Lipetsk Oblast, reports "all clear" for the yellow level UAV threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) This indicates the threat has been downgraded from red to yellow and subsequently cleared.
  • Smolensk Oblast: RF AD forces shot down and suppressed six Ukrainian UAVs over Smolensk Oblast, as reported by the governor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Voronezh Oblast: RF sources report UA drone attacks in Voronezh Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Kaluga Oblast: RF sources report UA drone attacks in Kaluga Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Chelyabinsk Oblast: TASS reports 3 new figures in a large-scale embezzlement case involving the director of "Technopark" and the head of the Ministry of Transport of Chelyabinsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) This indicates ongoing internal corruption issues within the RF. ASTRA reports an investigation launched in Kurgan after a girl danced on a war memorial. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - internal social issue).
  • RF General AD Claims: RF MoD claims 99 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over RF regions overnight. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claims on interceptions are often inflated but indicate significant UA activity). "Dnevnik Desantnika" corroborates the RF MOD claim of 99 UAVs shot down overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - milblogger corroboration of state claim). "Операция Z" (Russian milblogger) also reports that RF air defense systems shot down 99 Ukrainian drones over 12 regions overnight, aligning with the MOD claims and further reinforcing the narrative of high interception rates. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок reiterates the claim of 99 shot down Ukrainian UAVs overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). New RF MoD report claims RF AD shot down 291 aircraft-type UAVs and three Vampire MLRS rockets over the past day. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claims often inflated, but indicates high volume of UA activity). ASTRA reports RF MOD claim of 291 UAVs shot down. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Other Internal RF Issues: Reports of low-quality dry rations, FSB detaining Russians for calling for military assassinations, corruption arrests of officials (Tambov Governor, Bryansk Vice-Governor, Chelyabinsk officials). Planned ban on gasoline exports. Mobilization issues (denied compensation, military police brutality). GAZ transitioning to four-day work week. Continued arrests for alleged collaboration with Ukrainian call centers. Central Bank lowered key rate to 18%. Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier potentially to be scrapped. Rybar reports on the escalation on the Cambodia-Thailand border. This is a regional conflict unrelated to the immediate AOR but consumes global attention and resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Nizhny Novgorod: A participant in a swimming event died due to health problems during the distance. While not directly military-related, it adds to the general picture of internal RF issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad posts video showing what appears to be a new domestic RF USV/BEC (unmanned surface vehicle/naval drone) under development or testing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) This indicates RF is investing in and developing its own naval drone capabilities, potentially for future Black Sea operations. Police of Khabarovsk Krai reports a summary of weekly news, which often includes local crime and public order incidents, including IT-related drug crimes and cooperation with Kazakhstan. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) This provides a broader internal security picture for the far eastern regions of RF, though less directly relevant to the AOR. TASS reports financial scammers are targeting Russians under the pretext of selling access to online football match broadcasts, indicating persistent internal cybercrime/fraud issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Dva Mayora" provides an overview ("Обзорная Сводка") for the morning of July 27, 2025, which likely includes summaries of RF operational activities and internal events. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - a regular RF milblogger situational summary). "Dnevnik Desantnika" posts a brief morning update, likely a summary of events, indicating routine reporting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Fighterbomber posts video of a military helicopter, likely Mi-24 Hind, flying over agricultural fields, with another helicopter in the distance, indicating ongoing RF military aviation activity, possibly training. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad posts video showing the 52nd Guards Artillery Brigade of the Airborne Forces, highlighting their role in the "special military operation," including artillery reconnaissance and fire correction, emphasizing the critical role of artillerymen and drivers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - indicates ongoing RF military operations and recognition of units). TASS reports that 6 legal entities, including MTS and T2 Mobile, have been recognized as victims in the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack case, indicating the continued legal proceedings and impact of the attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Internal RF legal developments). Dnevnik Desantnika has posted a video showing repairs being performed on a military truck chassis, likely a 'bukhanka' (UAZ-452), indicating ongoing logistical and equipment maintenance efforts within RF forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). "Dva Mayora" posts video of an incident in Nefteyugansk (KhMAO), showing an altercation between two young people and two police patrol officers, highlighting internal law enforcement issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Internal security incident). TASS reports that a member of the Public Chamber, Rybalchenko, proposed gradually shortening the allowed hours for alcohol sales in Russia, indicating internal societal discussions and potential policy changes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Fighterbomber posts a photo message celebrating Navy Day, displaying a naval vessel and military personnel, reinforcing national morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov congratulated Russians on Navy Day, further reinforcing the official messaging surrounding the event. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). WarGonzo posts photos celebrating Navy Day, emphasizing pride and glory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). MoD Russia also posts an address on Navy Day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Dnevnik Desantnika posts an internal RF milblogger message criticizing those who prioritize "new stars on shoulder straps over the lives of the guys," indicating internal discontent within RF military channels regarding perceived incompetence or corruption at higher levels. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts photo message about a soldier carrying a wounded comrade, a morale-boosting narrative for RF forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Военкор Котенок posted a video of a church restoration project, which does not directly depict military activity but indicates internal social focus for fundraising and community projects. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - internal social focus). Fighterbomber has posted a photo message advertising kitchen knife sets, likely personal commerce, which is irrelevant to military operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - non-military commercial activity). Alex Parker Returns posts a video and associated text about a young man who joined the military after being influenced by "a Jew," with the outcome being "predictable." This is a clear antisemitic propaganda message attempting to discredit Ukrainian mobilization and leadership. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Dva Mayora posts a photo message advertising a giveaway of iPhones, indicating internal RF consumer promotions that are irrelevant to military operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Basurin o Glavnom posts a video claiming RF drone operators are equipping FPV drones with Kalashnikov automatic rifles. The video itself shows a hexacopter drone being prepared to carry munitions (82mm mines) and a light armored vehicle in a field, with multiple drones in the sky. This indicates RF is exploring new and potentially unconventional drone weaponization. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF milblogger claim, video shows drone being fitted for munitions, but not necessarily a Kalashnikov. Requires further verification of the specific weapon). Alex Parker Returns posts a video and photos alleging that "Akhmat" special forces are systematically looting apartments in Horlivka, breaking into homes even with elderly residents inside, and staying in these apartments. The message claims residents are installing cameras and posting signs to deter them. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UA source report of RF forces engaging in criminal activity in occupied territory). Rybar posts a photo message on religion being more important for Russians, indicating a social trend. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kotsnews posts a video that appears to be a memorial or commemoration for children, possibly in Donbas, highlighting the human cost of conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kotsnews reports on migration and a trillion in unpaid taxes, indicating internal economic/social issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Regional Context (Non-Ukraine):
  • Cyprus: Uncontained wildfires and two deaths. Fire in Sudak forestry (Crimea) localized. RBC-Ukraine reports large-scale fires in Turkey, with evacuations and blocked roads. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Kazakhstan (Aqtobe): Azerbaijani publication identified military personnel allegedly involved in downing an AZAL plane. Military helicopter missing in Almaty region, wreckage found.
  • Lithuania: Prepared infrastructure for additional US and NATO troops. Will allocate €30M for Patriot systems for Ukraine. Patrushev stated any military encroachment on Kaliningrad would receive a devastating response.
  • Red Sea: Distress signal regarding a vessel seizure.
  • Syria: Rybar notes a "request from Damascus." Alleged ethnic cleansing in Es-Suwayda province. French court canceled arrest warrant for former Syrian President Assad. Terrorist attack on a courthouse in Zahedan, Iran, 5 dead, 20 injured. US liquidated a senior ISIS leader. Colonelcassad reports two MKO terrorists linked to Israel were executed in Iran. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Black Sea Region: "Massive UAV raid" reported. Resumption of attacks in Black Sea. Putin states plans for modern naval forces. Naval exercises ("July Storm") ongoing. Two Majors video shows Baltic Fleet forces destroying maritime target with unmanned systems. Expected attack of underwater and conventional USVs on Novorossiysk, Anapa. NATO "practiced a strike on Crimea" (low confidence). TASS reports Putin congratulated sailors and officers on Navy Day, emphasizing the development of new naval technology and nuclear submarines. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS releases video showing the Baltic Fleet ship "Viktor Veliky" (Project 22160 patrol ship, hull number 417) conducting anti-aircraft missile firing exercises. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) This confirms ongoing naval exercises by the Baltic Fleet, showcasing their air defense capabilities. "Basurin o Glavnom" posts a video of Vladimir Putin's address for Russian Navy Day, reiterating the importance of naval development, including the commissioning of new vessels like "Knyaz Pozharsky" and "Yasen-M" submarines. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) This reinforces Putin's stated commitment to naval modernization. Rybar posts a graphic commemorating "Day of the Russian Navy" on July 27th, reinforcing the military's emphasis on naval power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Voenkor DV" has released video footage of a Russian naval parade, including warships, aircraft flyovers, and missile launches, in celebration of Navy Day, underscoring RF's emphasis on naval power projection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Visual confirmation of RF naval display). Colonelcassad has posted a video showing Baltic Fleet forces destroying a maritime target using a combination of a Lancet loitering munition and an unmanned surface vessel (USV) with a claimed range over 300 km and 24-hour autonomy. The video shows the Lancet striking a vessel, implying a combined USV/UAV targeting and strike capability against maritime targets, demonstrating a significant RF naval tactical development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Visual evidence of new RF maritime strike capability). Rybar posts video of large-scale naval exercises with missile launches and artillery fire, indicating continued naval power demonstration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора posted a video congratulating on Navy Day from the FSB Border Guard Directorate for the Republic of Dagestan, which showcases Russian naval power and vessels, including submarines and frigates. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF state propaganda). Dnevnik Desantnika posts a video congratulating on Russian Navy Day, showcasing various naval and land-based military operations, including vessels, submarines, helicopters, and missile launches, reinforcing the display of RF naval power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). MoD Russia posts video of "July Storm" naval exercise from Baltic Sea to Pacific Ocean, showcasing naval warfare training. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора posts three videos of 155th Separate Guards Naval Infantry Brigade celebrating Navy Day, including soldiers with Grad MLRS and a boy in naval uniform, indicating morale boosting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Cambodia-Thailand Border: Colonelcassad reports bloody battles between Thailand and Cambodia are approaching popular Russian resorts, citing Bangkok Post. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - this is an external conflict of note, especially given the mention of Russian interests). TASS reports that the Prime Minister of Cambodia confirmed a ceasefire agreement with Thailand, mediated by Trump. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - significant diplomatic development involving a major Western figure). "Operatsiya Z" also confirms the Cambodia-Thailand ceasefire mediated by Trump, indicating wider reporting on this diplomatic success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message confirming the Cambodia-Thailand ceasefire mediated by Trump, highlighting the swift resolution. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA confirmed the Prime Minister of Cambodia's statement on the ceasefire with Thailand mediated by Trump. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Kyiv: SBU prevented a terrorist attack. Air raid alerts announced and cleared. Israeli early warning system for air threats operational. Protests against law №12414 regarding NABU continue. Heat-related cargo movement restrictions. Combined night strike (missiles, drones) confirmed. Air raid alert due to ballistic missile threat. Kyiv City Military Administration also posted about the 0900Z minute of silence, reinforcing national observance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). KMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) has posted photos celebrating Medical Worker's Day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Басурин о главном posted photo messages of young people in Kyiv engaging in a "calligraphy and poetry club on cardboard," which is likely propaganda aiming to mock Ukrainian cultural/social efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF information operation).
• Estonia: Sounding alarm about Russia moving EW systems closer to NATO. Военкор Котенок reports NATO has increased reconnaissance flights along the Kaliningrad border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• New Tactical Development - Lancet Intercept: Claimed FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet loitering munition. (CONFIDENCE: LOW, requires verification)
• New RF Naval Commissioning: Putin participated in ceremony for raising naval ensign on 'Knyaz Pozharsky' nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine.
• New US Aid Package to Ukraine: US approval of $330 million military package for Ukraine (AD, SAU). First Patriot battery and missiles from Germany arrived (3 systems transferred), Germany negotiating for more. Воин DV reported on Germany's transfer of three Patriot systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Starlink Outage: Global Starlink outage largely resolved, software-related. Elon Musk allegedly ordered Starlink shutdown during 2022 counteroffensives.
• Israel-Palestine Recognition: Israel condemns France's decision to recognize Palestine. Israeli military states it has no evidence of Hamas regularly stealing UN aid, refuting prior claims.
• Internal Ukrainian Political Developments: RBC-Ukraine posts photo message with caption claiming "Retribution for the NABU and SAP anti-corruption scandal was not long in coming: the EU severely punishes Ukraine." TASS reports New York Times opinion that Zelenskyy's persecution of anti-corruption agencies negatively affected his image among Western allies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This indicates an active information campaign related to the recent controversy around Ukrainian anti-corruption bodies. "Zvиздец Мангусту" (Ukrainian milblogger) comments on the importance of the powers and independence of NABU and SAP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - indicates internal Ukrainian debate on this topic). UAF General Staff posts a message honoring medical workers on their professional holiday. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - indicates focus on morale and recognition within UAF). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts photos appearing to be related to financial transactions for support, possibly for military aid or donations, indicating continued internal fundraising efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine shares a photo message with general news updates for the night, indicating a standard news summary format. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine provides a text-based analysis of the photo message, confirming its informational nature and lack of direct military significance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine has posted about the "Rubizh" brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine collecting funds for damaged property and equipment, indicating a direct need for support for UAF units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Appeal for direct support). RBC-Ukraine posts photo message with interview on Ukrainian science, likely unrelated to military activity but relevant to general internal developments. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). 47th Mechanized Brigade "Magura" posts video showing field medics at work, thanking them for their efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UAF internal morale/recognition). DShV of Ukraine posts a photo message thanking medical workers, emphasizing their vital role. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zelenskiy / Official, KMVA, Oleh Syniehubov, Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, and OTU "Kharkiv" have posted messages celebrating Medical Worker's Day, emphasizing a unified focus on civilian morale and professional recognition across various Ukrainian leadership levels. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UA source) posted a video congratulating medical workers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kotsnews (RF milblogger) commented on "attacks on NABU and adaptation to new realities," indicating continued RF focus on this internal UA issue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Oleksiy Biloshitsky posts multiple photos of UAF personnel, accompanied by the caption "Together from Kyiv - to the trenches of Donbas!", emphasizing unity and dedication to the front line. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). BUTUSOV PLUS posts a photo message displaying a document with instructions on suicide using firearms and grenades, and a patriotic slogan, implying a Russian (or pro-Russian) directive on avoiding capture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - visual evidence of document, content interpreted). UAF General Staff posts photos of SSO operators at a training center, asking "Who is a medic for you?". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Ukraine will scale up explosives production. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Chinese UAVs: Colonelcassad posts a selection of Chinese "Caihong" (Rainbow) series drones with improved characteristics, implying their potential or current use. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). While not directly tied to current combat, it highlights RF interest in and potential procurement of advanced UAVs.
• Colonelcassad posts a video appearing to show an RF crew engaging a UA drone. The footage is from an aircraft's targeting system, suggesting aerial engagement of a drone, possibly by another drone or manned aircraft. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Colonelcassad posts video of a destroyed tank from the "enemy side" (UA perspective), with Russian text implying commentary on the conflict, suggesting RF is analyzing UA losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad posts two photo messages regarding the "worsening situation in the Krasnoarmeysk agglomeration," claiming that UAF efforts to stabilize the situation with reserves have been unsuccessful. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF milblogger assessment and propaganda). Colonelcassad posts a series of photos described as "Changes on the map over the past day," some of which are detailed geographic/infrastructure maps (Divgen logo) and others appear to be military operational maps with colored zones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF milblogger map updates, some showing non-military infrastructure, others showing operational areas).
• Western Diplomacy on Ukraine: Starmer's intent to discuss ways to end the conflict with Trump during a personal meeting, as reported by The Sunday Telegraph via TASS, signals ongoing international diplomatic efforts to find a resolution, though specifics remain unknown. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Stephen Whitkoff states he wants to see a resolution on Ukraine before the end of Trump's presidential term. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports that Trump is "losing patience with Putin," as stated by Rubio. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - new statement indicating a shift in Trump's perceived stance).
• Trump's Position on Ukraine: TASS reports Rubio stating Trump remains interested in a conflict resolution in Ukraine and desires concrete actions towards its conclusion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) This indicates consistency in Trump's stated position on Ukraine, regardless of the feasibility or means of achieving such a resolution. Operatsiya Z posts video of Witkoff stating Trump wants peace and will achieve a peace agreement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Unrelated US Internal Event: RBC-Ukraine reports a knife attack in Michigan, US. This is irrelevant to the AOR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine also reports a burning aircraft chassis and black smoke in the US after a plane with 179 people caught fire. This is irrelevant to the AOR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• US Political Developments (2028 Election): TASS reports Rubio's opinion on Vance as a potential 2028 presidential candidate. This is irrelevant to the immediate AOR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine also reports Rubio naming a potential successor to Trump. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - political commentary, irrelevant to AOR).
• Unidentified Drones over Japanese Nuclear Plant: Kyodo News reports three unidentified drones entered restricted airspace over the Genkai Nuclear Power Plant in Japan. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) This is a separate international security incident, but highlights global concerns about drone proliferation and critical infrastructure.
• North Korean Military Support: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 and Operatyvnyi ZSU report a Reuters article, citing South Korean intelligence, indicating that North Korea may deploy additional troops to Russia by August to participate in the war against Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Based on intelligence assessment, but not yet confirmed by independent sources). RBC-Ukraine posts a photo message referencing the Reuters report on Kim Jong Un's plan for new intervention in the war against Ukraine, reinforcing the intelligence assessment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reiterates the Reuters report on North Korea planning to send more troops to Russia in August for the war against Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Captured UA Drone Operator: Colonelcassad has published a video featuring a captured UA drone operator from the 143rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (OMBr), named Haziev Yevhen Vitaliyovych, who was taken prisoner by "Northerners" (RF forces in Northern Axis). He describes his drone operations, including FPV drone use for dropping munitions, and the circumstances of his capture. This provides direct insight into UA drone tactics and RF capture operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Direct testimony from captured personnel). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts video of a captured Ukrainian Major, Taras Muk, who states his unit suffered heavy losses and that RF artillery is accurate, indicating UA unit weakness and RF effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Special Forces Patch: ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ has posted a photo of a "Wolf Cub 45" patch, stating it symbolizes courage and combat brotherhood, implying its use by RF special forces, likely the 45th Separate Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, and contributing to RF morale and identity building. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF internal messaging).
• Russian Milblogger Western Criticism: "Voenkor Kotenok" states that "The West initially lost to themselves. Even without Russian participation, part of the world tells them: 'Have you completely lost your marbles?'" indicating a perception of Western self-inflicted decline and a narrative of Western hypocrisy within RF milblogger circles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF milblogger perspective). Военкор Котенок claims the US Institute for the Study of War is a pocket organization that parrots the "deep state," and warns of up to 2000 drones attacking Ukraine nightly by November if the conflict isn't frozen. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF milblogger propaganda/assessment).
• RF Political Statements: TASS reports Peskov stating RF would like to resolve the Ukrainian issue by political-diplomatic means, but the SMO continues because opponents rejected dialogue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF official narrative). RBC-Ukraine reports Peskov's statements and implies they are making up reasons for the war. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• UA Fundraising: BUTUSOV PLUS posts a video appeal for donations for a DJI Mavic 3T for the "Perun" UAV battalion of the 42nd OMBr, highlighting the need for thermal imaging drones for night operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UAF unit appeal for specific equipment).
• Internal RF Social Issues: ASTRA reports a girl dancing on a war memorial in Kurgan, leading to an investigation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - internal social issue).
• Wagner PMC Context: Alex Parker Returns posts an image with text regarding "Wagner PMC" and "fewer insiders," suggesting possible internal changes or information control within Wagner-affiliated channels. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Alex Parker Returns also posts a news article about the State Duma approving fines for "extremism" searches and censorship, which points to broader RF internal information control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Religious Appeals: Alex Parker Returns posts a religious appeal for donations for a mother who suffered a spinal fracture, with the priest mentioning prayers for soldiers and Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Internal RF social/religious appeal).
• Leningrad Oblast Drone Activity: ASTRA, Operatyvnyi ZSU, and STERNENKO confirm drone activity over Leningrad Oblast, with videos showing small aircraft/drones, and STERNENKO reporting airport disruptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS confirms over a dozen drones shot down in Leningrad Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBC-Ukraine shares video of an unidentified aircraft, likely a drone or small plane, over a rural area, potentially related to Leningrad Oblast activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• WarGonzo (RF Milblogger): Posted general photo messages with "tactical analysis" captions, but the analysis provided by the source itself was generic and did not contain specific military intelligence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). WarGonzo posts photos for "Day of Remembrance of the Fallen Children of Donbas," a propaganda event. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• No new significant weather or environmental factors reported for Ukraine. Assume continuation of recent patterns. Visibility at night may be reduced due to fog in some areas (e.g., Moscow Oblast, potentially border regions). Heat restrictions on cargo movement in Kyiv are noted.
• External: Large-scale wildfires are raging in Turkey, leading to evacuations and blocked roads. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF Forces: Continued offensive pressure on Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Sumy/Northern Slobozhansky axes. Defensive posture west of Avdiivka (Ocheretyne) with efforts to normalize/reconstruct (Avdiivka "wedding palace"). Renewed Black Sea fleet activity (exercises, new submarine commissioning), with evidence of domestic USV development and demonstrated combined USV/UAV strike capability against maritime targets. Intensified EW activity. New deployment of Shahed-type UAVs observed from Black Sea into Southern Odesa Oblast, though recent reports suggest these were negated, but a new group is inbound. RF forces, specifically elements of the 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, 36th Army, Vostok Group, are actively using drones for targeted strikes in areas such as Yanvarske (Kherson Oblast). RF is launching new groups of strike UAVs from Bryansk Oblast towards Sumy Oblast, with Shaheds observed moving south through Sumy Oblast, and now groups transiting Sumy towards Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts. RF tactical aviation activity is noted, including helicopter flights over agricultural fields, indicating potential for GAB launches, and confirmed KAABs on Donetsk Oblast. RF 20th Army UAV operators are actively targeting and destroying UA robotic platforms. RF artillery, specifically "Vostok" group, is actively targeting UA fortified positions with aerial (drone) observation and thermal imaging. RF AD is actively engaged against UA drone attacks across multiple central and western oblasts (Smolensk, Voronezh, Kaluga, Volgograd, Rostov, Leningrad, Pskov, Nizhny Novgorod, Pulkovo), with claims of 99 UAVs shot down overnight, and confirmed shot down in Pskov Oblast and Nizhny Novgorod industrial territory, and over a dozen in Leningrad Oblast, with one civilian injured in Leningrad Oblast. Flight restrictions in place at Nizhny Novgorod (now lifted), Pskov (now lifted), Pulkovo (now open), and Kaluga (now lifted) airports indicate an active RF air defense posture in response to ongoing UA drone threats into the RF heartland. Baltic Fleet conducting naval exercises, including anti-aircraft missile drills, indicates continued readiness and training in other operational areas. RF "Vostok" reconnaissance units are reportedly deploying "ZooPark" radar systems to counter UA artillery fire. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). RF continues to conduct aid collections for units in the Sumy direction, indicating sustained ground operations. The 52nd Guards Artillery Brigade of the VDV is actively engaged in combat operations, including artillery reconnaissance and fire correction, highlighting RF's continued reliance on artillery support. RF milblogger Colonelcassad reports on the worsening situation around Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) agglomeration, indicating continued pressure and assessment from the RF side. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF forces are continuing assault actions in the Dnipro delta island zone of Southern Ukraine, supporting with aviation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF is actively interrogating captured UA drone operators to gain intelligence on UA drone tactics and operational procedures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF Naval Infantry (336th Guards Brigade) and Tank Brigade (5th Guards) drone operators are actively destroying camouflaged enemy targets in Maliyivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF is undertaking maintenance and repair of military vehicles, including 'bukhanka' chassis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF is cancelling major public military events (Navy Day parade) due to security concerns, indicating an adaptive C2 response to threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF forces on the Konstantinovka axis are continuing encirclement efforts based on RF milblogger maps. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF units in the Kherson direction are requesting body armor, helmets, and medicine, indicating ongoing sustainment efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF's "Anvar" unit is conducting clearing operations and targeting UAF positions in border areas of Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Narodnaya militsia ДНР (RF source) claims destruction of a UA Novator armored vehicle in the Filyi area. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). RF MoD claims strikes on UAV production workshops and long-range drone control points. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim). RF MoD claims 291 aircraft-type UAVs and three Vampire MLRS rockets were shot down over the past day. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim). Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition claims destruction of a UA DRG near Aleksandrogad. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Voenkor Kotenok reports the evacuation of UAF field HQ in Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). RF VDV are appealing for drones for counter-landings. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Basurin o Glavnom claims RF drone operators are arming FPV drones with Kalashnikovs. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Alex Parker Returns reports alleged systematic looting in Horlivka by "Akhmat" special forces, indicating criminal activity by RF-affiliated forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). "Воин DV" reports drone operators of the 36th Army (Vostok Group) destroying enemy personnel and materiel overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• UAF Forces: Maintaining defensive lines and conducting counter-assaults. Reports of successful engagements near Siversk and against RF armored assaults near Vuhledar. Air defense remains active against widespread RF missile/drone attacks, with 78/83 (94%) enemy UAVs shot down or suppressed overnight. This is corroborated by ASTRA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). DeepState map updates indicate dynamic frontlines. UAF Air Force has issued warnings for incoming drone threats, including a new warning for movement of enemy drones from Luhansk towards Kharkiv and from Bryansk towards Kharkiv and from Bryansk towards Sumy, and now specific groups of Shaheds moving from Sumy towards Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts. UAF continues to conduct deep strikes into RF territory, targeting military-logistics infrastructure (Smolensk, Voronezh, Kaluga, Volgograd, Krasnodar, Tambov, Nizhny Novgorod, Pskov, Pulkovo, Rostov, and Leningrad Oblast, with visual evidence of impacts and infrastructure damage and railway disruption in Zaporizhzhia). UAF has reportedly advanced in Sumy Oblast, as per ISW maps. UAF Air Force has issued a general warning regarding RF tactical aviation activity. Redeployment of Ukrainian SSO unit "Bravo" to the Sumy direction indicates a tactical decision to reinforce or prepare for specialized operations in that area. UAF General Staff providing daily RF loss figures indicates continued operational assessment and public information efforts. Kryvyi Rih situation is assessed as controlled. UAF General Staff is also providing operational information as of 270800Z JUL 25, indicating active situational awareness and reporting. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has shared a map graphic, implying ongoing operational assessment and battlefield visualization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatyvnyi ZSU is providing updates from the General Staff, indicating active reporting and situational awareness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAF 47th OABr is actively engaging and destroying RF infantry in Zverovo. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF units, such as the "Rubizh" brigade and the "Perun" UAV battalion (42nd OMBr), are actively fundraising for equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF is actively observing minute of silence for fallen defenders daily at 0900Z. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF 82nd Air Assault Brigade drone operators are effectively destroying enemy dugouts with precision munition drops. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report continued successful strikes on enemy locations, firing positions, and rear areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force is tracking incoming KAABs on Sumy Oblast and strike UAVs on Kharkiv and Starokostiantyniv, and confirmed KAABs on Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports explosions in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, indicative of UAF AD activity or strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF 46th Airmobile Brigade is reporting on successful defensive actions and enemy losses on the Pokrovsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF DShV (Air Assault Forces) are showcasing their Australian Bushmaster armored vehicles, indicating continued use and integration of Western equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAV activity over Eastern Chernihiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UA authorities are investigating an incident of a TCC officer assaulting a civilian in Kryvyi Rih, indicating internal oversight mechanisms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 148th OABr inflicting fatal strikes on RF personnel with artillery and drones in Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Oleksiy Biloshitsky posts photos of UAF personnel, reinforcing morale and unity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). BUTUSOV PLUS posts a document with suicide instructions, which appears to be an RF directive for troops to avoid capture. This document highlights a potential RF tactic or indoctrination to ensure no prisoners are taken alive, and the perceived willingness of RF forces to comply. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports UA_REG TEAM destroyed an "aquakatcap" in Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Poltava TCC and SP was dispersed and relocated after Russian shelling. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Ukraine will scale up explosives production. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities: RF continues to possess significant capabilities in long-range precision strikes (missiles, GABs), tactical aviation (including helicopter operations), and ground maneuver forces. The introduction of new EW systems near Chasiv Yar and the reported use of "ZooPark" counter-battery radars represent an enhanced capability to disrupt UAF UAS and artillery. RF continues to field new artillery (Hyacinth-K) and naval assets, including the development of domestic naval drones (USVs) and a proven combined USV/UAV strike capability against maritime targets, as demonstrated by the Baltic Fleet. RF continues to conduct massed UAV attacks, demonstrating consistent production or acquisition capacity for Shahed-type drones, and has integrated drone warfare into tactical ground operations (e.g., targeting vehicles in Kherson, robotic platforms, well-camouflaged targets in Maliyivka). RF AD capabilities are actively engaged against UA drone attacks across multiple central and western oblasts (Smolensk, Voronezh, Kaluga, Volgograd, Rostov, Leningrad, Pskov, Nizhny Novgorod, Pulkovo), claiming a high number of interceptions and confirming downing in Pskov and Nizhny Novgorod and Leningrad (at least 10 drones), with one civilian injured in Leningrad Oblast. RF tactical aviation is active, indicating continued capability for airstrikes, including KAABs on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast. RF internal security forces, specifically FSIN (Federal Penitentiary Service), are capable of suppressing internal dissent and coercing individuals, as seen in the Crimea incident, and investigating corruption (Bryansk Deputy Governor, Chelyabinsk officials). RF artillery, specifically "Grad" MLRS, is being used to destroy fortified positions. RF financial crime elements are capable of exploiting digital platforms for fraud. The Baltic Fleet demonstrates naval air defense capabilities through exercises and has showcased new combined USV/UAV maritime strike tactics. The 52nd Guards Artillery Brigade's capabilities in artillery reconnaissance and fire correction contribute to RF's overall fire support effectiveness. RF forces in the Southern AOR demonstrate a capability for assault operations in complex riverine terrain, supported by aviation. RF is also capable of capturing and interrogating UA drone operators to gain intelligence. There is a MEDIUM confidence assessment that RF may leverage North Korean ground troops in Ukraine by August, which, if materialized, would significantly augment their ground combat capabilities, particularly in attritional warfare. RF possesses capabilities for ongoing military vehicle maintenance and repair, as evidenced by work on 'bukhanka' chassis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF is demonstrating a capability to reconstruct infrastructure in captured areas (Avdiivka "wedding palace"). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF forces are conducting limited ground operations to clear "buffer zones" in border areas (Kursk Oblast). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF propaganda mocking Ukrainian social/cultural efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF claims capability to hit UAV production and control points. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). RF claims very high drone interception rates (291 UAVs). (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). RF group "Vostok" claims capability to destroy UA DRGs using drone drops. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). RF Airborne Forces (VDV) are capable of conducting counter-landing operations and are seeking drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Basurin o Glavnom suggests RF is exploring arming FPV drones with firearms. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). RF special forces (South Group) are capable of destroying enemy vehicles, as seen in Siversk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF forces (Akhmat Special Forces) are reportedly engaging in systematic looting in occupied territories, indicating a capability for internal criminal activity and disregard for civilian property rights. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). 36th Army drone operators (Vostok Group) demonstrate capability for effective night operations against enemy personnel and materiel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Intentions: RF intent remains the seizure of key terrain in Eastern Ukraine, with a primary focus on Chasiv Yar and continued pressure along the Pokrovsk axis. Attacks on Ukrainian rear areas and border regions (Sumy, Kharkiv, Odesa, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi) aim to degrade UAF logistics, morale, and divert resources. Attacks on RF territory are intended to disrupt logistics, cause panic, and potentially divert AD assets. Putin's emphasis on naval development signals long-term strategic ambitions, including the fielding of naval drones and the demonstration of combined USV/UAV maritime strike capabilities. RF is intent on maintaining pressure on UA coastal regions and disrupting port operations or military facilities through continued drone attacks. RF's internal AD posture demonstrates a reactive intent to defend against UA drone attacks on RF territory, including the cancellation of major public events due to security concerns. RF information operations aim to shape narratives for both domestic and international audiences, exploiting internal Ukrainian issues and amplifying perceived Ukrainian "crimes," and promoting narratives of Western self-inflicted failure, and emphasizing the resilience of the Russian economy, and bolstering morale through narratives of heroism and reconstruction. RF tactical aviation presence suggests continued intent to conduct air support for ground operations and deep strikes, including KAABs on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast. RF is also demonstrating an intent to counter UA robotic platforms on the battlefield and to suppress UAF artillery through counter-battery systems like "ZooPark." RF also intends to maintain tight control over its information space and suppress pro-Ukrainian sentiment, extending coercive tactics to annexed territories. RF intends to exploit internal crime for financial gain. RF's emphasis on "its army and navy" indicates a strategic intent to project self-reliance and strength. RF's public collection for units on the Sumy direction suggests an intent to sustain or increase ground pressure in that area, reinforced by claims of heavy fighting there. RF intends to maintain a robust internal security and anti-corruption posture, as evidenced by the Bryansk confession. RF milblogger Colonelcassad's assessment of the "worsening situation in the Krasnoarmeysk agglomeration" indicates an intent to continue offensive pressure on Pokrovsk and exploit perceived UAF weaknesses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF intends to continue assault operations in riverine areas, supported by air assets. RF intends to gain intelligence on UA drone tactics through interrogation of captured personnel. RF may also intend to deploy North Korean ground forces to augment their combat power, signaling a potential new phase in force generation. RF intends to demonstrate robust military capabilities through exercises and public displays (Navy Day celebrations) even as it cancels parades for security reasons. RF's diplomatic engagement with Kyrgyzstan suggests an intent to foster regional stability and bilateral relations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Internal Russian policy discussions, such as alcohol sales restrictions, indicate efforts to address societal issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Peskov's statement indicates a continued intent to shift blame for the conflict to Ukraine and its Western partners, while maintaining the stated goal of resolving it. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF will use internal social issues, like the Kurgan memorial incident, to reinforce its narrative of moral decay or internal threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF will continue to use information operations to discredit Ukrainian leadership (Zelenskyy and NABU). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF will continue to use narratives associated with PMC Wagner for information operations, even if the group's internal structure changes. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). RF will continue to leverage religious and social appeals to garner domestic support for the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF will continue to conduct rescue and recovery operations for civilian incidents, showcasing state care. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF will seek to maintain its official narrative regarding internal dissent within its military. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF intends to continue clearing buffer zones in border regions, aiming to neutralize UA forces and infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF propaganda will continue to mock or belittle Ukrainian civilian initiatives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF intends to disrupt UA drone production and control. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). RF intends to project high AD effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). RF intends to destroy UA DRGs. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Voenkor Kotenok's report on UAF HQ evacuation from Pokrovsk suggests an RF intent to continue pressure on this axis. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). RF Airborne forces intend to counter UA landings and are focused on drone acquisition for this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Basurin o Glavnom's claim about arming FPV drones with Kalashnikovs suggests an intent to field more versatile and destructive tactical drones. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Alex Parker Returns' report on alleged looting by Akhmat indicates an RF intent to use irregular or punitive forces to control occupied territories, potentially also as a means of intimidation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF intends to exploit statements from captured UA personnel to undermine UA morale and portray RF tactical advantages. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF intends to use statements from US political figures (Witkoff) to bolster its narrative of willingness for peace and shift blame for continued conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF intends to increase reconnaissance flights along NATO borders (Kaliningrad) to gather intelligence and project presence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF intends to warn of increased drone attacks against Ukraine if conflict not "frozen." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF will use internal social narratives (e.g., increased religiosity) to demonstrate domestic stability/unity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Courses of Action (COA):
  • COA 1 (Most Likely): Intensified Ground Offensive with EW, Counter-Battery, and Tactical Drone Support (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk), and Border Clearing Operations. RF will concentrate and intensify offensive ground operations on the Chasiv Yar axis and Pokrovsk axis, supported by heavy artillery (with drone observation and thermal imaging targeting fortified positions, and MLRS targeting strongpoints, with active engagement from units like the 52nd Guards Artillery Brigade, and RF Naval Infantry/Tank Brigade drone operators targeting camouflaged positions in Maliyivka, and RF's "Anvar" unit actively clearing buffer zones in Kursk Oblast with strikes on UAF positions and Starlink terminals), increased GAB employment via tactical aviation (including helicopter reconnaissance/support, and KAABs on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast), and significant EW suppression to achieve breakthroughs and consolidate claimed territorial gains (e.g., Fedorivka), while continuing to reconstruct and normalize life in captured areas (Avdiivka). The reported use of "ZooPark" radar systems suggests RF will continue efforts to suppress UAF artillery effectiveness through counter-battery fire. RF will also continue tactical drone strikes against UA vehicles (including potential Novator armored vehicle in Filyi area and vehicles in Nova Mayachka, Kherson Oblast) and personnel on various axes, leveraging localized drone units, with an increased focus on targeting UA robotic platforms. RF will continue to conduct counter-DRG operations using drones, as claimed by Poddubny. Simultaneously, RF will maintain a high tempo of combined missile and UAV strikes, particularly Shahed-type drones from the Black Sea, and new waves from Bryansk Oblast, targeting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, military command nodes, and logistics hubs across the country, with heightened focus on Odesa Oblast and other southern coastal regions, as well as Kharkiv (expect a continuation of massed missile, air bomb, and Shahed attacks), Dnipropetrovsk (expect continued strikes on two districts), Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts, including high-volume attacks like those seen in Zaporizhzhia. Border regions, especially Sumy Oblast and Kharkiv Oblast, will experience continued probing actions and deep strikes to fix UAF forces and create a "security strip," with ongoing heavy fighting and efforts to sustain units in the Sumy direction. RF will intensify assaults in the Dnipro delta island zone supported by aviation. UAF drone operations into RF territory, particularly targeting logistics and industrial sites, will likely escalate in response to the increased RF pressure on the front, leading to continued flight restrictions and railway disruptions in RF (e.g., Volgograd, Nizhny Novgorod, Leningrad, with potential for civilian injuries). RF tactical drones will continue to actively hunt for and engage UA robotic platforms. RF "Vostok" units will continue to employ "ZooPark" radars to suppress UA artillery. RF will leverage internal developments (e.g., Bryansk confession, Navy Day celebrations, Crocus City Hall investigation, Russian economy resilience narrative, NABU/SAP controversy, Kurgan memorial incident, internal military dissent) for internal propaganda, while maintaining its external narrative on political resolution. RF will continue to exploit captured UA drone operator intelligence and potentially issue further directives like the "suicide instructions" to prevent capture. RF will continue military vehicle maintenance and repair. RF will continue to cancel major public military events due to security concerns. RF units in Kherson and VDV will continue appeals for supplies. UAF units will continue fundraising for specific equipment (e.g., DJI Mavic 3T). Civilian evacuations from contested areas (Dobropillia, Rodinske) will continue. RF propaganda will continue to mock Ukrainian civilian initiatives and spread antisemitic narratives. RF will continue to leverage memorial events for IO purposes. RF will continue to claim destruction of UAV production and control points, and high AD interception rates. Alleged systematic looting by "Akhmat" special forces in occupied territories will likely continue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • COA 2: Sustained Deep Strike Campaign with Coastal, Border, and Inland Focus; Introduction of New Maritime Strike Tactics. RF will maintain high tempo of missile and UAV strikes against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure (energy, military-industrial targets) to degrade national resilience and reduce UAF combat power. Focus will likely be on disrupting logistics and air defense nodes, with increased emphasis on coastal targets in Odesa and Mykolaiv Oblasts to undermine maritime resupply and morale, and continued attacks on border regions (Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Khmelnytskyi, Poltava) to stretch UAF defenses. This includes continued waves of UAVs from multiple directions (Black Sea, Bryansk Oblast, Luhansk Oblast), with specific Shahed groups targeting Sumy Oblast and now extending into Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts. RF tactical aviation will remain active to deliver GABs and provide air support. RF will likely increasingly employ combined USV/UAV strike packages against maritime targets, as demonstrated by the Baltic Fleet. RF will continue to target railway infrastructure in occupied territories (e.g., Zaporizhzhia). RF MoD will continue to claim strikes on UA UAV production and control points, aiming to degrade UA drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • COA 3: Limited Tactical Operations on Secondary Axes, Increased Use of North Korean Forces (If Confirmed), and Continued Internal/External IO. RF will continue localized probing attacks in Sumy (reinforced by reserves, leading to heavy fighting), Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, and Zaporizhzhia regions to stretch UAF defenses, fix reserves, and achieve localized gains where opportunities arise. This includes continued targeted drone strikes against UA vehicles and personnel on these axes, and specific targeting of UA robotic platforms. RF will concurrently intensify information operations to discredit Ukraine and justify its own actions, particularly focusing on alleged UA "crimes" in border regions and internal Ukrainian political divisions (including the NABU/SAP controversy, and alleged issues with TCC officers), and highlighting RF successes against UA advanced equipment (including the "ZooPark" radar system and confirmed UA tank destruction, and purported Novator destruction), and promoting the narrative of Russian economic resilience, and mocking Ukrainian social initiatives. RF will also intensify efforts to suppress pro-Ukrainian sentiment and control information internally, especially in annexed territories like Crimea, using coercive tactics as demonstrated by the DJ incident, and continue anti-corruption efforts. RF will also showcase new domestic military technology like USVs to project strength. RF will also continue to highlight its military capabilities through exercises and public statements from leadership, and celebrate Navy Day to boost morale, while cancelling major public events due to security concerns. RF may deploy North Korean ground forces for frontal assaults or attritional warfare, particularly if current force generation efforts prove insufficient or if a decisive breakthrough is desired. This would likely be accompanied by a coordinated narrative to justify such a deployment. RF will continue to use narratives related to PMC Wagner to influence domestic and international perceptions. RF Airborne forces (VDV) will continue to focus on drone acquisition for counter-landing operations. RF may explore novel weaponization of tactical drones (e.g., FPV drones with firearms), potentially for close-quarters engagement. RF forces like "Akhmat" may continue alleged systematic looting in occupied territories as a means of control and resource acquisition. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• RF Adaptations:
  • Enhanced EW and Counter-Battery Deployment: The significant increase and effectiveness of RF EW systems around Chasiv Yar is a critical tactical adaptation, directly impacting UAF UAS. The reported use of "ZooPark" counter-battery radars indicates a further adaptation to suppress UAF artillery, a key element of their defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • FAB-3000 Deployment: First operational use of FAB-3000 M-54 UMPK indicates RF willingness to deploy heavier, more destructive glide bombs, likely for fortified positions or high-value targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Varied Assault Formations: While large armored assaults can still fail (Vuhledar), RF continues to use smaller, agile assault groups for probing and localized advances, suggesting adaptability at the tactical level. RF claims of advances in Fedorivka indicate continued localized pressure. Use of MLRS for fortified positions demonstrates continued combined arms employment.
  • Sustained Massed UAV Attacks: RF maintains the capacity for and willingness to conduct massed "Shahed" attacks, particularly against southern coastal areas and now from Bryansk Oblast towards Sumy, and extending to Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts, indicating a sustained and evolving drone warfare capability with diversified launch points. New warnings regarding Shahed movement confirm this trend, with specific groups transiting Sumy Oblast. RF is conducting large-scale combined missile, air bomb, and drone attacks (e.g., Kharkiv). RF UAVs are observed over Leningrad Oblast, causing one civilian injury. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). New group of enemy strike UAVs inbound from Black Sea on Odesa/Mykolaiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Integrated Tactical Drone Use: Evidence of specific RF brigades (e.g., 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, 336th Naval Infantry Brigade, 5th Tank Brigade) actively employing strike drones to target UA vehicles at the tactical level, indicating a decentralized, yet effective, integration of drone assets into frontline operations. The confirmed destruction of a UA robotic platform by RF 20th Army UAV operators indicates an expanding tactical target set for RF drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF is also claiming to equip FPV drones with firearms (e.g., Kalashnikovs), suggesting new experimentation in drone weaponization. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). RF special forces demonstrate effective drone usage to destroy enemy vehicles (Siversk direction). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF "Vostok" group claims destruction of UA DRGs using drone drops. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). 36th Army drone operators (Vostok Group) are confirmed to be conducting effective night operations against enemy personnel and materiel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Information Warfare Focus: RF is increasing its efforts to collect and disseminate propaganda videos featuring alleged Ukrainian "crimes" in border regions, indicating a tactical shift in IO to directly counter Ukrainian narratives and gain international sympathy. RF is also exploiting internal corruption issues within Ukraine to discredit the government. The video from "Operatsiya Z" claiming a UA soldier shot his commander and surrendered to RF forces is a new narrative aiming to sow discord and undermine UA morale, indicating an adaptation in psychological operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF is adapting by emphasizing the resilience of its economy to counter Western pressure narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF is exploiting the NABU/SAP controversy to discredit Zelenskyy, as further indicated by Kotsnews. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF is adapting its internal messaging to control narratives around social issues (e.g., memorial incident in Kurgan, alcohol sales). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF is adapting its information control by approving fines for "extremism" searches and censorship. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF milblogger Dnevnik Desantnika expressing internal criticism of RF command demonstrates an internal adaptation of discourse within the milblogger community. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF has adapted to produce propaganda mocking Ukrainian civilian initiatives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF is introducing antisemitic propaganda to discredit Ukrainian mobilization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF is leveraging internal civilian events (iPhone giveaway) to distract from military realities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF is using propaganda about alleged looting by "Akhmat" special forces to justify their presence and actions in occupied territories, or to suggest Ukrainian complicity/disorder. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF is adapting its IO to exploit statements from captured UA personnel to undermine UA morale and portray RF tactical advantages. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF is using statements from US political figures (Witkoff) to bolster its narrative of willingness for peace and shift blame. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF is also using narratives about increasing religious importance to project internal stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF is adapting its IO to commemorate children in Donbas to justify its actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Active Tactical Aviation: Consistent reports of RF tactical aviation activity, combined with GAB launches (including KAABs on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast) and helicopter operations, demonstrate a sustained adaptation to use air power for deep and close support. The general alert for active RF tactical aviation indicates a continued and possibly intensified air threat. Threat of aerial munitions in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Domestic USV Development: New video showing RF domestic USV development indicates an adaptation towards indigenously produced naval drones for future operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The demonstrated combined USV/UAV strike capability against maritime targets by the Baltic Fleet (Lancet striking a vessel after USV engagement) is a significant tactical adaptation, indicating new methods for maritime interdiction or attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Formal Recognition of Units: RF assigning "Guards" status to the 52nd Artillery Brigade of the VDV indicates an adaptation to boost morale and publicly recognize perceived successes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Interrogation of Captured Personnel: The systematic interrogation of captured UA drone operators indicates a C2 function for immediate intelligence exploitation from POWs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF issuing documents with suicide instructions for troops (to avoid capture) indicates an extreme adaptation aimed at preventing intelligence leakage through POWs or demonstrating unwavering commitment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The video of captured Major Taras Muk suggests RF is adapting to exploit high-value POWs for propaganda purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Potential North Korean Troop Deployment: While unconfirmed, the reported intent to deploy North Korean ground troops would be a significant force generation adaptation, signaling RF's willingness to tap into allied personnel reserves for attritional warfare. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Security Measures for Public Events: Cancellation of the main Navy Day parade indicates an adaptation to prioritize security in response to perceived or actual threats, likely from UA drone activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Maintaining Diplomatic Narrative: Peskov's statement indicates RF's continued adaptation of its diplomatic narrative, shifting blame while claiming willingness for dialogue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Reconstruction/Normalization Efforts in Occupied Territories: RF showcasing efforts to rebuild (e.g., Avdiivka "wedding palace") is an adaptation aimed at demonstrating control and normalcy, potentially to counter narratives of destruction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Clearing Operations in Border Areas: RF's "Anvar" unit actively clearing buffer zones near Porozok and Seredyna-Buda indicates an adaptation to establish and maintain control over border regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Tactical Response to UAF HQ Evacuation: The reported evacuation of UAF field HQ in Pokrovsk, if confirmed, would represent a successful RF tactical adaptation, forcing UAF C2 disruption. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Increased NATO Border Surveillance: RF is adapting to increased NATO reconnaissance flights along the Kaliningrad border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Massive Drone Attack Warning: RF milblogger warning of up to 2000 drones attacking Ukraine nightly by November indicates an adaptation in public messaging, possibly to set expectations or justify future large-scale attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• UAF Adaptations:
  • FPV Lancet Intercept (Claimed): If confirmed, the FPV drone intercepting a Lancet represents an innovative, if potentially ad-hoc, counter-UAS tactic. (CONFIDENCE: LOW, needs verification)
  • Increased Deep Strike Targeting: UAF's continued and successful drone strikes against targets deep within RF territory (Volgograd, Smolensk, Voronezh, Kaluga, Krasnodar, Tambov, Nizhny Novgorod, Pskov, Pulkovo, Rostov, Leningrad) demonstrate an adaptive tactical shift to disrupt RF logistics and internal stability, confirmed by RF sources and imagery. The "ATESH" partisans disabling a railway in Zaporizhzhia highlights continued UAF/partisan efforts against logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO reports UA_REG TEAM destroyed an "aquakatcap" in Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Localized Counter-Offensives: Reports of UA advances in Sumy Oblast and heavy fighting near Kindrativka and Oleksiyivka indicate successful localized counter-offensive tactics, exploiting perceived RF vulnerabilities in border areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The 47th OABr's destruction of RF infantry in Zverovo indicates active UAF counter-fire and defensive adaptations on the Pokrovsk axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The 46th Airmobile Brigade's reporting on successful defensive actions on the Pokrovsk direction further highlights effective UAF tactical responses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF 82nd Air Assault Brigade drone operators demonstrate effective close-range precision strikes against enemy dugouts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The 148th OABr's effective use of artillery and drones against RF personnel in Donetsk Oblast indicates effective combined arms tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • SSO Redeployment: The redeployment of the SSO unit "Bravo" to Sumy indicates an adaptation by UAF to bring specialized capabilities to a specific area of operations. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Internal Fundraising: Continued active internal fundraising by military units (e.g., "Rubizh" brigade, "Perun" UAV battalion) demonstrates an adaptive approach to resource acquisition to compensate for combat losses or unmet needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Unified Memorial Observance: The nationwide minute of silence at 0900Z is a national adaptation to foster unity and honor fallen personnel, contributing to overall morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Showcasing Western Equipment: UAF DShV showcasing their Australian Bushmaster armored vehicles implies continued reliance on and integration of Western military aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Focus on Medical Support: UAF General Staff, 47th OMBr, DShV, KMVA, Oleksandr Vilkul, Oleh Syniehubov, Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, OTU "Kharkiv," and Anatoliy Shtefan publicly thanking medical workers is an adaptation to boost morale and highlight the importance of medical support, particularly on Medical Worker's Day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF General Staff posts photos of SSO operators discussing the role of medics, indicating a focus on internal military medical support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • High Interception Rates for UAVs: The reported 78/83 UAVs shot down/suppressed (94% success rate) overnight indicates a significant UAF adaptation and effectiveness in countering RF drone attacks, as confirmed by RBC-Ukraine and ASTRA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Civilian Evacuation Warnings: The video of civilians leaving Dobropillia and damage in Rodinske suggests UAF or local authorities are conducting, or supporting, evacuations in response to RF advances or shelling, an adaptation for civilian protection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Internal Oversight: UAF's immediate investigation into the TCC officer's assault in Kryvyi Rih indicates an adaptation to address internal issues and maintain accountability within the armed forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Continuous ISR: UAF Air Force reports continuous enemy reconnaissance UAV activity across key oblasts (Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia), indicating an adaptive and persistent ISR posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Morale and Unity Reinforcement: Oleksiy Biloshitsky's posts emphasizing unity and dedication "from Kyiv to Donbas trenches" are an adaptive effort to reinforce national unity and combat spirit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Relocation of Recruitment Centers: The Poltava TCC and SP was dispersed and relocated after Russian shelling, indicating an adaptation to maintain operational continuity of recruitment efforts under threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Scaling up Domestic Explosives Production: Ukraine will scale up explosives production, indicating an adaptation to increase domestic military-industrial capacity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• RF Logistics:
  • Ammunition & Fuel: Sustained high-intensity operations and deep strikes suggest a robust, though potentially strained, supply chain. The continued use of GABs indicates a stable supply of older airframes and bomb bodies for conversion. Artillery brigades, like the 52nd VDV, remain active, consuming ammunition. Confirmed destruction of well-camouflaged targets by RF drone operators in Maliyivka suggests effective ammunition supply for tactical drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF "Anvar" unit actively conducting strikes indicates continued munition supply for border operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The claimed arming of FPV drones with Kalashnikovs, if true, suggests a novel, possibly desperate, attempt to increase close-quarters lethality of drones using readily available small arms ammunition. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). 36th Army drone operators report destruction of enemy materiel, implying continued supply for their operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Personnel Replacements: Continued offensive pushes, despite reported heavy losses, indicate RF is able to sustain personnel through mobilization or recruitment, albeit potentially with quality concerns (as implied by internal RF social issues and high-level corruption arrests in Chelyabinsk and Bryansk). The daily UAF report of +920 RF personnel losses highlights the attrition rate. The appeal from the 7th Division (RF) for drones and Starlink in Zaporizhzhia suggests localized logistical deficiencies for specific equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The potential deployment of North Korean troops, if confirmed, would represent a significant external source of personnel to sustain RF combat power. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Ongoing military vehicle repairs indicate continuous efforts to maintain and replace equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF units in the Kherson direction are seeking body armor, helmets, and medicine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Dnevnik Desantnika's criticism of internal RF military leadership suggests some level of logistical or personnel management issues that are not being addressed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The alleged systematic looting in Horlivka by "Akhmat" special forces, if true, suggests a breakdown in logistics and discipline, with forces self-sustaining through criminal acts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The captured Major Taras Muk's statement about his unit losing 300 personnel indicates high attrition rates. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Disruptions in RF Territory: UA drone strikes on oil depots (Krasnodar), industrial plants (Nevinnomyssk), powder plants (Tambov), and railway electrical infrastructure (Volgograd, confirmed substation hit, and railway delays, including Zhutovo station, with visual evidence), and potentially also Smolensk/Voronezh/Kaluga/Nizhny Novgorod/Leningrad, directly impact RF military-industrial and energy infrastructure, potentially affecting long-term sustainment. Airport restrictions (Pulkovo (now open), Nizhny Novgorod (now lifted), Pskov (now lifted), Kaluga (now lifted), Leningrad) also indicate disruption, with one civilian injured in Leningrad Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Passenger train delays in Volgograd due to drone attacks confirm disruption to civilian and potentially military transport. Cancellation of the main Navy Day parade due to security concerns indicates a broader impact of the conflict on internal RF logistics and security planning for major events. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The ATESH partisan action against the railway in Zaporizhzhia is a direct hit on RF logistics in occupied territory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The Saratov gas explosion and Novoshakhtinsk shopping center fire highlight internal infrastructure vulnerabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF MoD claims striking UAV production facilities suggests an ongoing logistics battle impacting both sides. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Kotsnews reports on "trillion недоплаченных налогов" related to migration, indicating potential economic strain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• UAF Logistics:
  • Drone Requirements: Zelenskyy's call for 1000 interceptor drones per day highlights a critical, high-volume requirement for counter-UAS capabilities. The appeal for DJI Mavic 3T for the "Perun" battalion highlights the need for specific, advanced drone types. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • External Aid: New US aid ($330M) and German Patriot deliveries (3 systems transferred, more negotiated) are vital for UAF AD and combat sustainment. Lithuanian pledge for Patriot procurement is a positive development. Germany's transfer of three Patriot systems has been confirmed by RF sources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Starlink: Widespread but resolved Starlink outages underscore dependence on, and vulnerability of, satellite communications.
  • Internal Fundraising: Continued active internal fundraising efforts for military support, as indicated by financial transaction screenshots and direct appeals from units like the "Rubizh" brigade and "Perun" UAV battalion, highlight the ongoing need for resources and the limitations of state supply for certain needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Equipment Maintenance: DShV showcasing Western vehicles (Bushmaster) implies ongoing maintenance and operational readiness for foreign-supplied equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Explosives Production: Ukraine will scale up explosives production, indicating a focus on increasing domestic supply for military needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • TCC Relocation: Poltava TCC and SP dispersed and relocated due to shelling, indicating efforts to maintain recruitment and support services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• RF C2:
  • Centralized Planning: The synchronized missile/drone campaigns across Ukraine (as seen in animated strike maps) suggest centralized command and control for strategic strikes.
  • Tactical Coordination Issues: The Vuhledar armored assault failure, characterized by poor coordination, indicates persistent weaknesses in RF tactical C2, particularly for complex combined arms operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Border Region Control: The declaration of "red threat levels" and AD activity in multiple RF border oblasts (Lipetsk, Bryansk, Volgograd, Kaluga, Smolensk, Voronezh, Nizhny Novgorod, Pskov, Pulkovo, Rostov, Leningrad) demonstrates RF C2 is actively responding to cross-border threats, albeit reactively. The lifting of the "red threat level" in Lipetsk and Nizhny Novgorod/Kaluga/Pskov/Pulkovo airports indicates effective local C2 response and communication. Cancellation of Navy Day parade indicates effective C2 decision-making in response to security assessments. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The successful repulsion of drone attacks in Leningrad Oblast demonstrates effective AD C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Disinformation Integration: TASS reporting on "forced mobilization" and "liberation" narratives, and milblogger content on alleged UA "crimes," indicates RF C2 is closely coordinating information operations with military movements and internal events. The immediate amplification of the Chelyabinsk corruption case by TASS and the Bryansk confession suggests a C2 effort to control internal narratives around governance. The new video alleging a UA soldier shot his commander further demonstrates integrated IO. Public statements from Putin on Navy Day, amplified by state media (including Belousov), indicate centralized messaging to bolster national pride and support for military development. Formal recognition of military units (52nd Guards Artillery Brigade) is also a C2-driven morale booster. The rapid and consistent reporting on the Cambodia-Thailand ceasefire mediated by Trump, indicates a coordinated effort to highlight this diplomatic success for internal and external consumption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF C2 also coordinating efforts to highlight alleged internal Ukrainian issues (NABU/SAP), as demonstrated by Kotsnews. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Peskov's statement on political-diplomatic resolution indicates a coordinated narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF C2 is also reacting to internal social issues (Kurgan memorial, alcohol sales proposals) with coordinated messaging or investigations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF efforts to rebuild in Avdiivka (wedding palace) indicate a C2 decision to project normalization in captured territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF C2 is actively generating propaganda to mock Ukrainian civilian initiatives (e.g., "calligraphy and poetry clubs"). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reporting on the "Angels of Donbas" memorial in Donetsk indicates a coordinated effort to frame the narrative of civilian casualties in Donbas as a result of UA actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF C2 is using antisemitic messaging via milbloggers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). WarGonzo posts "Day of Remembrance of the Fallen Children of Donbas" for propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kotsnews posts a commemorative video for children. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Tactical Drone Integration: The specific mention of a brigade-level drone unit conducting successful strikes (e.g., 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, 336th Naval Infantry Brigade, 5th Tank Brigade) and the 20th Army UAV operators targeting robotic platforms indicates effective tactical C2 decentralization for drone employment. RF "Vostok" artillery uses aerial observation to target UA fortified positions, indicating integrated fire control. The reported use of "ZooPark" radar by "Vostok" reconnaissance indicates integrated counter-battery fire. The demonstrated combined USV/UAV strike capability by the Baltic Fleet signifies effective C2 in developing and deploying complex multi-domain strike packages. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The claims of arming FPV drones with Kalashnikovs, if true, indicates a C2 willingness to experiment with novel drone weaponization. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). RF MoD claiming strikes on UAV production and control points suggests a C2 focus on disrupting UA drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). 36th Army drone operators (Vostok Group) are confirmed to be operating effectively at night, indicating robust tactical C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Air Activity Coordination: The general alert regarding RF tactical aviation activity implies effective C2 for air assets, including helicopter operations. Naval exercises by the Baltic Fleet, including missile drills, indicate effective C2 over naval assets in other theaters. MoD Russia video shows effective C2 for naval exercises across multiple fleets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Intelligence Exploitation: The interrogation of captured UA drone operators indicates a C2 function for immediate intelligence exploitation from POWs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF issuing documents with suicide instructions for troops (to avoid capture) indicates extreme C2 over personnel behavior. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The video of captured Major Taras Muk suggests RF is effectively exploiting high-value POWs for propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Internal Criticism Management: The appearance of internal criticism from RF milbloggers (Dnevnik Desantnika) about command decisions suggests a potential challenge to RF C2's ability to maintain unified messaging and morale within its ranks, or an intentional allowance of some limited dissent to appear credible. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Alleged Criminal Activity by Forces: Alex Parker Returns' report on alleged systematic looting by "Akhmat" special forces in Horlivka, if accurate, points to a potential breakdown of central C2 over irregular forces, or a tacit acceptance of such activities as a means of control/sustainment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Increased NATO Border Surveillance: RF milblogger reporting on increased NATO reconnaissance flights along Kaliningrad border suggests RF C2 is aware of and responding to heightened NATO vigilance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Warning of Future Drone Attacks: RF milblogger warning of up to 2000 drones nightly by November indicates a coordinated message, possibly to prepare for or justify future large-scale attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• UAF C2:
  • Adaptive Response: UAF General Staff provides regular operational updates (as of 270800Z JUL 25), and local authorities react to strikes, indicating effective, decentralized command responses under pressure. UAF Air Force is rapidly issuing warnings for incoming drone threats from multiple directions, and for tactical aviation activity, including specific tracking of Shahed groups in Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava Oblasts, and tracking KAABs on Sumy Oblast and Kharkiv/Starokostiantyniv, and Donetsk Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has issued a new urgent warning. Kryvyi Rih local authorities maintain control. RBC-Ukraine reporting explosions in Khmelnytskyi Oblast suggests adaptive AD responses. The high interception rate of 78/83 UAVs overnight demonstrates effective C2 coordination of AD assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAV activity over Eastern Chernihiv Oblast, and also over Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, confirming active ISR C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBC-Ukraine's report on power supply issues indicates C2 is assessing infrastructure resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). New strike UAV group inbound from Black Sea on Odesa/Mykolaiv Oblast indicates adaptive C2 for warnings. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Threat of aerial munitions in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district) indicates adaptive C2 for warnings. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). OTU "Kharkiv" reporting on its operational zone indicates active C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Poltava TCC and SP relocation demonstrates adaptive C2 in response to shelling. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Strategic Intelligence Integration: Zelenskyy's meeting with SVR/GUR intelligence points to ongoing strategic-level C2 and intelligence integration for future operations. The redeployment of SSO "Bravo" to Sumy indicates C2 is adapting to specific operational needs. UAF General Staff also focuses on morale-boosting activities, such as honoring medical workers. The nationwide minute of silence is a C2-driven morale and remembrance initiative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF units directly appealing for donations (e.g. Rubizh Brigade, Perun UAV Battalion) indicate a flexible, if informal, C2 response to resource needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF unit reporting (46th Airmobile Brigade, 82nd Air Assault Brigade, Southern Defense Forces, 148th OABr) indicates active operational awareness and dissemination of combat results. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). DShV highlighting Western equipment indicates effective C2 in managing foreign aid and its integration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Local authorities (KMVA, Oleh Syniehubov, Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, OTU "Kharkiv") aligning with national leadership (Zelenskyy) on Medical Worker's Day messaging indicates effective C2 for internal communications and morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The rapid sharing of Reuters reports on North Korean troops suggests effective C2 in strategic intelligence dissemination. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Anatoliy Shtefan's public congratulations to medics reinforce this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The investigation into the TCC officer's assault in Kryvyi Rih highlights C2's commitment to internal discipline. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Oleksiy Biloshitsky's posts reinforce C2 efforts to maintain unity and morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF General Staff posts showing SSO operators and their view on medics indicates a C2 focus on internal morale and professional recognition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvnyi ZSU reporting on scaling up explosives production indicates strategic C2 for domestic military-industrial complex. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Defensive Resilience: UAF continues to hold ground against significant RF pressure in key sectors (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk). Successful repulsion of large-scale RF assaults (Vuhledar, Siversk) demonstrates defensive capabilities remain effective. UAF is actively defending against 810 strikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF 46th Airmobile Brigade continues to hold defenses on the Pokrovsk axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF 82nd Air Assault Brigade demonstrates continued offensive/defensive capabilities with drone precision strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The 148th OABr demonstrates effective defensive and counter-offensive capabilities in Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Air Defense Capacity: High interception rates against RF air assets demonstrate continued AD effectiveness, though massed drone/missile attacks still achieve hits and cause casualties/damage. New Patriot systems will enhance this. Recent success in negating "moped" drones from the Black Sea towards Odesa is a positive indicator. The UAF Air Force warnings indicate active monitoring and readiness to engage air threats, including specific tracking of Shahed groups. Reports of explosions in Khmelnytskyi Oblast suggest AD activity. The reported 78/83 (94%) UAVs shot down/suppressed overnight demonstrates high effectiveness against drone threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). New strike UAV group inbound from Black Sea on Odesa/Mykolaiv Oblast, requiring continued AD readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Threat of aerial munitions in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district), requiring AD readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• UAS Operational Capacity: UAF UAS remain a critical component of ISR and precision strike, despite increasing RF EW threats. The expressed need for 1000 interceptor drones highlights the priority on counter-UAS defense. UAF capabilities for deep strikes into RF territory using drones are expanding. The loss of a UA robotic platform highlights a new vulnerability to RF tactical drone capabilities, requiring adaptation. The capture of a UA drone operator provides insight into tactical procedures. UAF drone units (82nd Air Assault Brigade's 'Fakhivtsi') demonstrate continued precision strike capabilities against RF dugouts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The "Perun" UAV battalion's fundraising for a DJI Mavic 3T indicates a need for specific, advanced drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAV activity over Eastern Chernihiv Oblast, and also over Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, confirming active aerial ISR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports UA_REG TEAM destroyed an "aquakatcap" in Kursk Oblast, demonstrating continued offensive drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Personnel & Morale: While UAF successes boost morale, ongoing casualty reports (e.g., combat medic killed) and mobilization challenges (RF propaganda about TCC actions) are persistent factors. The new RF propaganda video claiming a UA soldier shot his commander is a direct attack on UA military cohesion and morale. The redeployment of SSO "Bravo" to Sumy indicates the use of elite forces to address specific threats or opportunities, highlighting readiness in specialized units. UAF General Staff's public recognition of medical workers contributes to morale, reinforced by multiple official Ukrainian sources. The nationwide minute of silence at 0900Z is a significant morale-building measure. The Ukrainian DShV's showcasing of the Bushmaster highlights morale and confidence in Western equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The need for civilian evacuation from areas like Dobropillia and damage in Rodinske indicates the continued human cost and impact on civilian morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The investigation into the TCC officer's assault indicates efforts to maintain discipline and accountability among personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Oleksiy Biloshitsky's posts reinforce unit morale and unity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The captured Major Taras Muk's statements, if believed internally, could impact morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF General Staff posts celebrating medics via SSO operators show a focus on internal military morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Offensive Capability (Localized): Reports of UAF advances in Sumy Oblast, and ongoing heavy fighting there, indicate a limited but present offensive capability in specific sectors. The 47th OABr's destruction of RF infantry in Zverovo indicates active UAF offensive/counter-offensive capabilities. Southern Defense Forces' report on continuing to strike enemy locations, firing positions, and rear areas indicates persistent offensive pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The 148th OABr demonstrates effective localized offensive capabilities with artillery and drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Ukraine will scale up explosives production, indicating future offensive capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:
  • Vuhledar Repulsion: Decisive defeat of a significant RF armored assault near Vuhledar, inflicting considerable materiel and personnel losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Siversk ATK: UAF "destroyed a lot of KATSAPS along with equipment" near Siversk. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Kindrativka Liberation: 225th Separate Assault Battalion reportedly liberated Kindrativka in Sumy Oblast, indicating successful counter-offensive action. Operatyvnyi ZSU reinforces this, mentioning the "lost battalion of communists" from 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy Oblast Advance: ISW map updates confirm Ukrainian forces have advanced in Sumy Oblast, with UAF actively assaulting Oleksiyivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF HQ Strike: Successful UAF strike on an RF HQ in Donetsk (Zasyadko mine). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Commander Elimination: Elimination of RF regiment commander (83rd Motorized Rifle Regiment, 69th Motorized Rifle Division). (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • RF Infrastructure Strikes: Successful and documented drone strikes against RF military-industrial and logistics infrastructure in Volgograd Oblast (railway electrical system, oil station fire, confirmed by RF sources, confirmed strike on electric substation near railway, and confirmed train delays, including Zhutovo station, with visual evidence), Krasnodar Krai (oil depot), Nevinnomyssk (industrial plants), Tambov (powder plant), and now confirmed or reported strikes in Smolensk, Voronezh, Kaluga, Nizhny Novgorod (confirmed by Governor), Pskov (confirmed shot down), Pulkovo (St. Petersburg, now open), and Leningrad (confirmed by governor, at least 10 drones downed), with one civilian injured in Leningrad Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ATESH partisan action against a railway in Zaporizhzhia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports UA_REG TEAM destroying an "aquakatcap" in Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Odesa Drone Interception: Apparent successful neutralization of "moped" type UAVs heading towards Southern Odesa from the Black Sea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mykolaiv Drone Neutralization: "Mykolaivsky Vanok" report indicates successful resolution of "moped" attacks in Mykolaiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Personnel Losses: UAF General Staff reports an additional 920 RF personnel losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Infantry Destruction (Zverovo): UAF 47th OABr successfully destroyed RF infantry in Zverovo, demonstrating effective localized defense/counter-fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF Dugout Destruction (Maliyivka): UAF 82nd Air Assault Brigade drone operators successfully destroyed enemy dugouts, confirmed by video. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Southern Front Strikes: Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report continued successful strikes on enemy locations, firing positions, and rear areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Pokrovsk Defensive Successes: 46th Airmobile Brigade reports successful defensive actions and enemy losses on the Pokrovsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • High UAV Interception Rate: UAF Air Force reports 78/83 (94%) enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed overnight, indicating highly effective AD operations, as confirmed by RBC-Ukraine and ASTRA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF BMP Destruction (Siversk): Colonelcassad's video shows the destruction of an RF BMP by UAF special forces on the Siversk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF Personnel Destruction (Donetsk): Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 148th OABr effectively striking RF personnel with artillery and drones in Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Poltava TCC Relocation: Poltava TCC and SP was dispersed and relocated after Russian shelling, maintaining continuity of operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Explosives Production Scale-up: Ukraine will scale up explosives production, indicating progress in military-industrial capacity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setbacks:
  • Starlink Disruptions: Initial widespread Starlink outages, though largely resolved, exposed a critical vulnerability in communications.
  • Civilian Casualties/Infrastructure Damage: Continued widespread RF strikes on civilian targets in Odesa (confirmed residential building and market destruction), Dnipropetrovsk (two districts attacked, confirmed by photo evidence), Kharkiv (confirmed damage by photo evidence, including 10 missiles, 9 air bombs, 35 Shaheds overnight), Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia (810 strikes on 12 settlements, and two fatalities in Stepnohirsk from MLRS attack) cause significant casualties and damage. Explosions in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Damage in Poltava Oblast. Civilian evacuation from Dobropillia and damage in Rodinske due to shelling. One fatality and five injured from RF drone attack on vehicle in Nova Mayachka, Kherson Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports two fatalities in Kherson Oblast due to Ukrainian attacks (RF claim). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Pokrovsk Axis: RF claims of significant advances and deep infiltration near Pokrovsk, if accurate, represent tactical setbacks. (CONFIDENCE: LOW-MEDIUM, RF claims often exaggerated). The RF claim of advancing in Fedorivka, DNR, if confirmed, would represent a localized setback. RF claim of MLRS destruction of UAF strongpoint. Colonelcassad reports the "worsening situation in the Krasnoarmeysk agglomeration" from the enemy perspective, which represents a perceived setback for UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF milblogger map indicates encirclement efforts on Konstantinovka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Voenkor Kotenok reports the evacuation of UAF field HQ in Pokrovsk. If true, this is a C2 setback. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Alex Parker Returns reports Maliyivka liberated. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Information Environment Challenge: The ongoing controversy around NABU/SAP and related EU reactions, combined with internal criticism from military bloggers regarding soldiers’ welfare, presents a challenge to internal unity and external support. The new RF propaganda depicting a UA soldier shooting his commander is a targeted psychological setback if believed. RF propaganda mocking Ukrainian civilian initiatives is also a persistent challenge. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF antisemitic propaganda targeting Ukrainian mobilization and leadership. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The captured Major Taras Muk's statements could be a significant propaganda setback if widely circulated and believed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Tactical Vehicle Losses: Confirmation of a UA vehicle destroyed by RF drone in Yanvarske, Kherson Oblast, highlights the persistent threat of RF tactical drone use. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF sources (Народная милиция ДНР) claim destruction of a UA Novator armored vehicle in the Filyi area. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Loss of Robotic Platform: The destruction of a UA robotic platform by RF UAV operators signifies a new tactical loss and highlights RF capabilities against emerging UA battlefield technology. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Artillery Strikes on Fortified Positions: RF "Vostok" group artillery effectively destroying UA dugouts in DNR suggests successful targeting of UAF fortified positions. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) RF's "Anvar" unit striking UAF fortified positions in Kursk Oblast is a setback. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Extended Shahed Trajectories: New Shahed groups transiting Sumy Oblast towards Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts demonstrates RF's ability to extend strike ranges and complicate AD efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson Strike: Impacts on the GUVPD building in Kherson indicate a successful RF strike on a key administrative/security target. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Dnipropetrovsk Impacts: Confirmed RF strikes on two districts in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast since evening, causing damage and casualties, represent ongoing setbacks in civilian protection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Destroyed UA Tank (Colonelcassad): Colonelcassad's video showing a destroyed UA tank, albeit from "the enemy side," indicates a loss for UA forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - visual evidence).
  • UA Drone Operator Capture: The capture of a UA drone operator provides RF with valuable intelligence on UA tactics and capabilities, representing a tactical intelligence setback for UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Internal Discipline Issue: The reported assault by a TCC officer in Kryvyi Rih is an internal discipline setback that could impact public trust and mobilization efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Alleged Looting by Akhmat: Alleged systematic looting by "Akhmat" special forces in Horlivka is a setback for civilian security and trust in occupied areas, and potentially undermines RF's claim of "liberation." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Critical Need: Counter-UAS: Urgent requirement for increased interceptor drone production (1000/day target) and integrated C-UAS systems to counter RF drone and loitering munition threats, especially given enhanced RF EW capabilities and persistent Shahed attacks from multiple vectors. New focus needed on countering RF capabilities against UA robotic platforms. Specific need for DJI Mavic 3T for night operations. Address potential RF tactical adaptation of arming FPV drones with firearms.
• Air Defense Munitions: Sustained RF air attacks necessitate continuous supply of AD missiles. New Patriot systems are crucial, but more are needed. Despite high interception rates, RF is still able to penetrate defenses, requiring a continuous supply of interceptors.
• Artillery Ammunition: Continued high-intensity fighting on active fronts implies ongoing high consumption of artillery ammunition. The reported effectiveness of RF "ZooPark" counter-battery radars highlights a critical need for UAF counter-battery assets and tactics to maintain artillery effectiveness.
• EW Countermeasures: Development and deployment of UAF EW capabilities to counter new RF systems.
• Personnel Rotation/Reinforcement: Sustaining defensive lines and offensive actions requires consistent personnel replenishment and training. The redeployment of SSO "Bravo" highlights the need for specialized units in key areas. The potential for North Korean troop deployment by RF would increase the need for UA personnel.
• Information Warfare Capabilities: Resources to counter sophisticated RF disinformation campaigns, particularly those targeting internal Ukrainian cohesion and Western support, and those attempting to justify RF actions. This includes rapidly debunking false narratives, such as the alleged UA soldier shooting his commander, and addressing the TCC officer assault, and countering antisemitic propaganda, and addressing alleged looting by RF forces. Focus on countering RF narratives related to perceived internal dissent within RF military leadership. Counter RF propaganda mocking Ukrainian civilian efforts. Counter RF narratives from captured UA personnel.
• Continued Financial Support: The ongoing need for donations and financial support, as seen in Ukrainian milblogger appeals (e.g., Rubizh brigade, Perun UAV battalion) and broader financial transaction screenshots, highlight the ongoing need for resources and the limitations of state supply for certain needs.
• Military Vehicle Maintenance: Continued need for spare parts and maintenance for military vehicles, including Western-supplied equipment like the Bushmaster.
• Civilian Protection and Evacuation Resources: Continued need for resources to support civilian protection, including shelter, aid, and evacuation from high-risk zones like Dobropillia and Rodinske.
• Energy Infrastructure Resilience: Continued need for resources to repair and harden energy infrastructure against RF strikes, as highlighted by Ministry of Energy assessments.
• Domestic Explosives Production: Continued need for resources to scale up domestic explosives production.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Propaganda:
  • Victim Blaming/False Flags: TASS/Mash claim UA drone attack on an ambulance in Zaporizhzhia (CONFIDENCE: LOW - typical RF false flag narrative). TASS also claims Kyiv is "mobilizing" residents under guise of evacuation, an obvious attempt to deter cooperation with UAF. TASS posts video commemorating "children-victims of war in Donbas" who allegedly died from "military aggression of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," a clear propaganda effort to assign blame to UAF, reinforced by Басурин о главном. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports one person died and five were injured in a Ukrainian FPV drone attack on a vehicle in Nova Mayachka, Kherson Oblast, likely used to portray UA as indiscriminate attackers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports two fatalities in Kherson Oblast due to Ukrainian attacks, amplifying casualty numbers attributed to UA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Discrediting Mobilization & Undermining Morale: RF milbloggers (Colonelcassad) pushing narratives about Ukrainian "manhunters" and forced conscription (e.g., video of TCC official hitting a "draft evader"). Colonelcassad is actively promoting a video from Ukrainian military blogger "Kiyanin" criticizing Ukrainian command for not paying benefits to families of missing/killed soldiers, linking it to government corruption. This is a direct attempt to undermine UAF morale and public trust. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - active IO). This narrative aligns with long-standing RF efforts to highlight internal Ukrainian divisions and exploit perceived government weaknesses. "Operatsiya Z" is actively promoting a video claiming a UA soldier shot his commander and surrendered, a direct attempt to portray internal discord and weakness within UA forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - active IO). Alex Parker Returns posts antisemitic propaganda attempting to discredit Ukrainian mobilization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Podduvny |Z|O|V| edition posts video of captured Major Taras Muk, using his statements to portray UA military weakness and RF tactical superiority. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Moral Degradation: RF promoting the "Satanists in AFU" narrative seeks to dehumanize Ukrainian forces and rally support for their "special military operation." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - active IO).
  • Exaggerated Gains: RF claims of liberating multiple settlements and deep infiltration around Pokrovsk are likely inflated to boost domestic morale and demonstrate progress. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - typical RF reporting). The new TASS claim of advancement in Fedorivka, DNR, follows this pattern. TASS video of artillery strike on dugouts will be used to show RF effectiveness. TASS claims that "Vostok" reconnaissance units using "ZooPark" radar have reduced UA artillery strikes, intended to demonstrate RF technical and tactical superiority. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). "Operatsiya Z" claims of "Rubicon" burning NATO armored vehicles in Sumy Oblast is a clear attempt to exaggerate RF successes and demoralize UA. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - propaganda, lacks verification). TASS claim of MLRS destroying UAF strongpoint. Colonelcassad's reports on the "worsening situation in the Krasnoarmeysk agglomeration" are designed to highlight perceived RF gains and UAF failures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad's video showing RF drone operators destroying targets in Maliyivka serves to demonstrate tactical effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ map on "Okhvat Konstantinovki" suggests encirclement and RF advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts RF propaganda video of a "wedding palace" being rebuilt in Avdiivka, intended to show normalization/reconstruction in captured areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Народная милиция ДНР (RF source) claims destruction of a UA Novator armored vehicle, used to show RF effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition claims destruction of a UA DRG using drone drops, aiming to highlight RF effectiveness against infiltration. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Voenkor Kotenok reports the evacuation of UAF field HQ in Pokrovsk, used to show RF advances. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). MoD Russia posts video of MLRS hitting a UAF fortified area in Krasnoarmeysk direction, used to show RF destructive power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns reports Maliyivka liberated and mocks UA defenses. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). "Воин DV" reports on effective night operations by RF drone operators, showcasing tactical success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Internal Control: Detention and forced "apology" of a DJ in Crimea for playing Ukrainian music highlights the tightening of internal information control and suppression of dissenting/pro-Ukrainian sentiment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Cancellation of major Navy Day parade for security reasons is also part of the narrative control, framing it as a necessary safety measure, confirmed by ASTRA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The State Duma approval of fines for "extremism" searches and censorship is a direct measure to control information. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF issuing suicide instructions for troops implies a deliberate effort to control narratives around capture and reinforce commitment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Exploiting Internal Controversies: RF state media (TASS) is rapidly amplifying negative narratives (e.g., NYT article, Operatsiya Z) regarding Zelenskyy's image due to the NABU/SAP controversy, aiming to erode Western confidence and support. TASS highlighting the corruption arrests in Chelyabinsk and the Bryansk confession serves as a diversionary tactic from broader internal RF issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - active IO). Kotsnews also focuses on the NABU/SAP controversy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Highlighting Foreign Military Assistance to RF: Colonelcassad's sharing of Chinese drone information, even if for general public, can serve to imply broader foreign military-technical cooperation. The emerging reports regarding North Korean troop deployment to RF will likely be heavily spun by RF to showcase allied support and force generation. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Perception of RF Power: TASS reporting on a UK poll ranking Russia among the most powerful nations is a clear attempt to bolster RF's international image and perceived strength. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Basurin o Glavnom" actively posts images with captions like "Russia has only two allies - its army and navy," indicating a state-sanctioned narrative of self-reliance and military strength, further reinforced by Rybar's Navy Day graphic and Putin's Navy Day address, and celebratory naval parade videos (including those shared by Rybar and TASS, and "Voenkor DV"), and MoD Russia video on Navy Day, and Два майора's Navy Day video from FSB Border Guard Directorate, and Dnevnik Desantnika's Navy Day video. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Fighterbomber's Navy Day message also contributes to this nationalistic narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). WarGonzo's Navy Day celebration posts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). MoD Russia's video showcasing the "July Storm" exercise highlights vast military reach. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора's videos celebrating the 155th Separate Guards Naval Infantry Brigade further reinforce military pride. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Fabricated Atrocities/Looting: New video from Colonelcassad depicting an elderly man claiming to be a victim of Ukrainian looting in Kursk Oblast, likely a staged narrative to garner sympathy and justify RF actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - classic RF disinformation tactic). Alex Parker Returns posts claims of systematic looting in Horlivka by "Akhmat" special forces. This narrative, from a UA source, highlights RF forces' alleged criminal behavior and breakdown of discipline, but can also be used by RF to frame the conflict as one of "liberation" from such elements or to suggest Ukrainian complicity/disorder. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Showcasing RF Technical Superiority: Colonelcassad's posting of the video showing a UA robotic platform destroyed by an RF drone serves to highlight RF's battlefield capabilities and demoralize UA forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The new video of domestic RF USVs will be used to demonstrate RF's innovation and self-sufficiency in military technology. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reporting on the Baltic Fleet's missile firing exercises serves to showcase RF naval capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Putin's Navy Day address, amplified by state media, reinforces this narrative of growing RF naval power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The video showing the Baltic Fleet destroying a maritime target using a Lancet and USV will be used to demonstrate advanced RF multi-domain strike capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Rybar's video of naval exercises also serves to display RF naval power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Basurin o Glavnom's claim about arming FPV drones with Kalashnikovs, if true, would be used to portray RF as highly innovative and adaptive in drone warfare. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Highlighting Internal Fraud: TASS reporting on financial scams related to football broadcasts is a subtle attempt to highlight internal domestic issues that are separate from the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zelenskyy 'Whining' Narrative: "Operatsiya Z" (Russian milblogger) portraying Zelenskyy as "whining" about the need to pressure Russia to end the war, is a clear attempt to undermine his credibility and portray Ukrainian leadership as weak or desperate. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - active IO)
  • Crocus City Hall Investigation: TASS reporting on the alleged payment to the Crocus City Hall attackers is part of the ongoing RF narrative to attribute blame for the attack and reinforce a specific (likely state-sanctioned) version of events. The identification of legal entities as victims further contributes to this narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - internal RF narrative control).
  • Minimizing Drone Attack Impact: RF MoD claims of high interception rates (99 UAVs shot down overnight, confirmed by ASTRA and Operatsiya Z, and Военкор Котенок, and new claim of 291 UAVs and 3 Vampire MLRS rockets shot down) are likely an attempt to minimize the perceived success of UA drone attacks on RF territory and reassure the domestic population, despite evidence of significant damage (Volgograd substation, Pulkovo airport restrictions, Nizhny Novgorod industrial territory, Leningrad Oblast, with civilian injuries). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - typical RF claims).
  • Showcasing UA Losses: Colonelcassad posts video of a destroyed UA tank, a clear attempt to highlight UA materiel losses and demoralize forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The video of a captured UA drone operator will be heavily exploited to demonstrate RF's success in capturing enemy personnel and extracting intelligence, while also portraying UA forces as vulnerable. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad's video showing a destroyed BMP in Siversk direction also serves this purpose. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Narodnaya militsia ДНР (RF source) claims destruction of a UA Novator armored vehicle, used to show RF effectiveness and UA losses. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Podduvny |Z|O|V| edition posts video of captured Major Taras Muk, emphasizing UA unit weakness and losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Emphasizing Economic Resilience: "Operatsiya Z" (Russian milblogger) posts a Telegraph article claiming the Russian economy can withstand pressure "for a very long time," reinforcing the narrative of economic resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Promoting Bilateral Relations: TASS reporting on Putin's statement about RF-Kyrgyzstan relations serves to project an image of constructive diplomatic engagement and stability in the Eurasian region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Internal Law Enforcement Issues: "Dva Mayora" reporting on an attack on police officers in Nefteyugansk is likely used to highlight challenges to internal security, but also demonstrate state response. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Police of Khabarovsk Krai reports on efforts to combat IT-related drug crime. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Societal Control: TASS reporting on proposed restrictions on alcohol sales is a measure that will be used to project an image of order and social responsibility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Rybar posts a photo message about the increasing importance of religion for Russians, implying societal values are being reinforced. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Political Blame: Peskov's statement attempts to shift blame for the continuation of the SMO onto Ukraine and its allies for rejecting dialogue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBC-Ukraine highlights Peskov's statements, framing them as inventing reasons for the war. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Propagandizing Internal Social Issues: ASTRA's report on a girl dancing on a war memorial and the subsequent investigation will be used by RF to highlight perceived moral decay or disrespect, further justifying state control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Heroism Narrative: Colonelcassad posts a photo emphasizing a soldier carrying a wounded comrade, a clear narrative to bolster morale and portray heroism within RF forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Addressing Internal Military Dissent: The internal milblogger criticism (Dnevnik Desantnika) might be addressed by RF state media through narratives of resilience or accountability, or it may remain a fringe concern. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Mocking Ukrainian Civilian Efforts: Басурин о главном posted photo messages mocking Ukrainian "calligraphy and poetry clubs," indicating RF attempts to belittle Ukrainian social and cultural initiatives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF Internal Issues and Distractions: News of Moscow reports increased demand for 1990s/2000s concerts, a civilian distraction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kotsnews reports on migration and taxes, indicating internal economic/social issues used for domestic discourse. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• UAF Counter-Narratives:
  • Highlighting RF Atrocities: Reports of civilian casualties, attacks on humanitarian workers, and damage to civilian infrastructure (Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk (two districts attacked, confirmed by photo evidence), Kharkiv (confirmed damage by photo evidence, including 10 missiles, 9 air bombs, 35 Shaheds overnight), Kherson strike, 810 strikes on Zaporizhzhia Oblast, two fatalities in Stepnohirsk from MLRS attack, Poltava damage, civilian evacuation from Dobropillia, damage in Rodinske) serve to reinforce RF's image as an aggressor. Photos from RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU on Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv damage directly support this. ASTRA's reporting of 10 missiles, 9 air bombs, and 35 Shaheds on Kharkiv Oblast reinforces the scale of RF aggression. TASS reports one person died and five were injured in a Ukrainian FPV drone attack on a vehicle in Nova Mayachka, Kherson Oblast. This RF claim can be countered by UAF by highlighting the RF's own consistent targeting of civilians. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' report on alleged looting by "Akhmat" special forces in Horlivka directly exposes criminal activity by RF-affiliated forces in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Showcasing RF Losses: Dissemination of videos and reports of successful UAF engagements (Vuhledar, Siversk, Volgograd strikes) directly counters RF's narratives of success and aims to degrade enemy morale. The ISW map updates on UA advances in Sumy Oblast serve to highlight UA successes. The UAF General Staff provides daily RF loss figures (+920 personnel), which is a direct counter to RF narratives of success and aims to show attrition, with specific photo graphics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The 47th OABr's video of destroying RF infantry in Zverovo is a direct counter-narrative to RF claims of advances on the Pokrovsk axis. UAF 82nd Air Assault Brigade drone operators destroying RF dugouts and 46th Airmobile Brigade reporting enemy losses are effective counter-narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Southern Defense Forces' report on continuing to strike enemy locations, firing positions, and rear areas serves to highlight ongoing UA success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The 78/83 UAV interception rate is a powerful counter-narrative to RF's massed drone attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvnyi ZSU mentioning the "lost battalion of communists" from 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment directly counters RF combat effectiveness claims. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF's 148th OABr reporting on effective strikes against RF personnel in Donetsk Oblast directly counters RF narratives of success and demonstrates UAF effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports UA_REG TEAM destroyed an "aquakatcap" in Kursk Oblast, countering RF narratives about border security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • ISW Forecast: RBC-Ukraine highlighting ISW's forecast of "more massive strikes" from RF serves to prepare the Ukrainian public and international audience for potential escalation, attributing responsibility to RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок's mirroring of ISW's warning about 2000 drones by November could also be used by UA to emphasize the threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Trump's Shifting Stance: RBC-Ukraine highlighting Rubio's statement that Trump is "losing patience with Putin" could be used to frame the international diplomatic landscape more favorably for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Confirming RF Infrastructure Damage: Operatyvnyi ZSU's and STERNENKO's video/photo confirmation of the Volgograd substation fire directly counters RF attempts to downplay damage from UA strikes. ASTRA's visual confirmation of the Zhutovo station damage further reinforces this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvnyi ZSU and STERNENKO reporting drone activity in Leningrad Oblast, confirming airport disruption, counters RF claims of high interception rates. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The ATESH partisan action against the railway in Zaporizhzhia is a direct hit on RF logistics in occupied territory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Celebrating UAF Personnel: UAF General Staff publicly recognizing medical workers (as posted by Operatyvnyi ZSU with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's greeting and Oleksandr Vilkul, and 47th OMBr, DShV, KMVA, Oleh Syniehubov, Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, OTU "Kharkiv", and Anatoliy Shtefan) serves to boost morale and highlight the professionalism of Ukrainian forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The nationwide minute of silence reinforces national unity and respect for sacrifices. Oleksiy Biloshitsky's posts of UAF personnel reinforce a positive image of the Ukrainian military. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF General Staff posts celebrating medics via SSO operators. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Showcasing Internal Support: The sharing of financial transaction screenshots by Ukrainian milbloggers and appeals from units like the "Rubizh" brigade and "Perun" UAV battalion highlights the ongoing public support for military efforts and serves as a rallying cry. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emphasizing North Korean Threat: The immediate dissemination of Reuters reports regarding potential North Korean troop deployment serves to highlight the scale of the threat and emphasize the need for continued Western support. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). This is reinforced by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBC-Ukraine's photo message reinforces this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Highlighting Western Military Aid: UAF DShV showcasing their Australian Bushmaster armored vehicles effectively highlights the material support from Western partners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Humor/Resilience: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a humorous video of a wake-up prank in a barrack, which, while not direct IO, can contribute to a narrative of resilience and camaraderie. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). "Dva Mayora" posts a video of a chat roulette interaction displaying pro-Ukrainian sentiment, which could be used to highlight resistance within RF-controlled information spaces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Addressing Internal Issues: RBC-Ukraine reporting on the TCC officer assault and police investigation shows transparency in addressing internal issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ensuring Energy Transparency: RBC-Ukraine's report on the Ministry of Energy's statement about power issues indicates transparency regarding civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Exposing RF Unit Directives: BUTUSOV PLUS sharing the document with suicide instructions can be used to expose the harsh realities and potential human rights violations within the RF military. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Domestic Production Scale-up: Operatyvnyi ZSU reporting on scaling up explosives production demonstrates self-reliance and commitment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Countering Peskov's Narrative: RBC-Ukraine directly challenges Peskov's statements on diplomacy, framing them as excuses for war. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukrainian Public: Resilience continues despite widespread attacks, but civilian casualties and infrastructure damage are taxing. Calls for more air defense and drones reflect public need for protection. Protests against NABU reform bill indicate internal political tensions, and comments from Ukrainian milbloggers reflect ongoing debate. Internal criticism from Ukrainian military bloggers regarding welfare payments for soldiers’ families highlights a potential domestic pressure point for the UAF and government. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The EU's perceived "punishment" over the NABU scandal (as framed by RBC-Ukraine) could impact public sentiment regarding European integration. The psychological impact of RF propaganda depicting internal UA military issues (e.g., soldier shooting commander, antisemitic propaganda, and statements from captured Major Taras Muk) could be significant if not countered effectively. Celebration of medical workers likely boosts morale. Public engagement in fundraising efforts indicates continued commitment. The nationwide minute of silence at 0900Z is a significant emotional and unifying factor for the population. Continued reporting on educational matters (RBC-Ukraine interview with MON) shows efforts to maintain focus on post-war recovery and social stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Civilians evacuating from Dobropillia and damage in Rodinske signifies direct impact on public sentiment due to ongoing conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The reported TCC officer assault could negatively impact public trust in mobilization efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Public awareness of power supply issues is ongoing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The alleged looting by "Akhmat" special forces in Horlivka, if widely known, would further erode trust in RF occupation forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Public: Indications of internal dissent and unease: low-quality dry rations, FSB detentions for "military assassinations," corruption arrests (e.g., Chelyabinsk officials, Bryansk Vice-Governor, Khabarovsk Police reporting on general issues), mobilization issues (denied compensation, brutality), and general societal problems (gas explosion in Saratov (confirmed by TASS), factory issues, swimming event fatality, plane crash in Amur Oblast (confirmed by TASS), police incident in Nefteyugansk, Kurgan memorial incident, alcohol sales discussions, Novoshakhtinsk shopping center fire). Flight restrictions and drone attacks on RF territory (Volgograd, Pulkovo, Rostov, Leningrad etc.) are increasing domestic awareness of the conflict's cost, with one civilian injured in Leningrad Oblast. Confirmed drone attacks on Volgograd, Smolensk, Voronezh, Kaluga, Nizhny Novgorod, Pskov, Leningrad, and Rostov, including the railway substation and train delays, will likely increase public concern within RF and highlight the conflict's internal impact. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - based on indirect reporting). The new reports of financial scams exploiting public interest in football indicate a general environment of internal vulnerability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) EMERCOM psychologists responding to the plane crash in Amur Oblast highlight the human impact of these events on the RF populace, and the seizure of engines for investigation indicates public concern about air safety. The "Dva Mayora" report provides insights into internal sentiment from a milblogger perspective. Colonelcassad's direct appeal for aid for units in Sumy direction and Kherson direction suggests some level of public engagement/support for military efforts. Celebration of Navy Day attempts to rally public support for the military, though the cancellation of the main parade due to security concerns might dampen morale or highlight perceived vulnerability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). "Voenkor Kotenok"'s direct criticism of the West indicates a pervasive anti-Western sentiment among nationalist milblogger followers. The Crocus City Hall investigation continues to impact public sentiment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Internal policy debates (alcohol sales) indicate a focus on social order. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). "News of Moscow" indicates ongoing civilian urban development projects. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Religious appeals for donations, referencing prayers for soldiers, can tap into public religious sentiment for military support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Dnevnik Desantnika's criticism of RF leadership indicates a degree of frustration and lower morale among some within the RF military support base. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad's photo message of a soldier carrying a wounded comrade is intended to boost morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The "Angels of Donbas" memorial in Donetsk aims to mobilize pro-war sentiment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RF VDV appealing for drones indicates a perceived supply issue affecting morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' iPhone giveaway might be an attempt to improve public sentiment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The alleged looting by "Akhmat" special forces, if widely perceived within Russia, could negatively impact the image of their own forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). News of Moscow reports increased demand for 1990s/2000s concerts, providing a civilian distraction for public sentiment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Rybar's report on increased religiosity suggests a social trend that could contribute to societal stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kotsnews posts a memorial for children, which could evoke sympathy and support for the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kotsnews reports on migration and taxes, reflecting internal economic concerns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Neutral/International Public: The Cambodia-Thailand ceasefire mediated by Trump could be seen as a positive diplomatic development, potentially influencing global perceptions of his ability to resolve conflicts. The scale of wildfires in Turkey, a NATO member, highlights an environmental crisis that draws international attention. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Continued Support for Ukraine: New US aid package ($330M) and Germany's delivery of Patriot systems reinforce continued military support. Lithuania's pledge for Patriot procurement is a positive diplomatic and material development. Germany's transfer of three Patriot systems has been confirmed by RF sources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• EU Integration: EU decision on "roaming visa-free travel" is a symbolic step reinforcing Ukraine's European trajectory, though overshadowed by new reports of "punishment" over internal anti-corruption issues.
• NATO Posture: Estonia raising alarm about RF EW systems near NATO borders and Lithuania preparing for additional NATO troops indicates heightened vigilance and reinforced deterrence on NATO's eastern flank. Patrushev's statement regarding Kaliningrad is a direct warning to NATO. Baltic Fleet exercises near NATO's borders reinforce the continued tension. Военкор Котенок reports NATO has increased reconnaissance flights along the Kaliningrad border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Broader Geopolitical Context: Unrelated conflicts (Cambodia-Thailand border, Red Sea seizures, Syria, Turkey wildfires) could draw international attention and resources, potentially impacting the long-term focus on Ukraine. The confirmed ceasefire in Cambodia-Thailand mediated by Trump highlights his involvement in international affairs, which could influence his approach to Ukraine. Israel-Palestine recognition issues also divert global diplomatic focus. Unidentified drones over a Japanese nuclear power plant highlight broader international security concerns regarding drone proliferation and critical infrastructure.
• Western Diplomatic Initiatives: Starmer's proposed meeting with Trump to discuss conflict resolution, and Peskov's statement on political-diplomatic resolution, indicates ongoing high-level diplomatic engagement from Western powers, potentially exploring different avenues for peace, which may or may not align with Ukraine's stated objectives. Trump's continued interest in "resolving" the conflict, as stated by Rubio and Whitkoff, and his recent successful mediation in Cambodia-Thailand, indicates a persistent desire for a political outcome. RBC-Ukraine's report that Trump is "losing patience with Putin" suggests a potential shift in the US approach to the conflict, which could have significant diplomatic ramifications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatsiya Z posts video of Witkoff stating Trump wants peace and will achieve a peace agreement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• North Korean Involvement: Reports regarding potential North Korean troop deployment would be a significant geopolitical development, indicating a deepening alliance between Russia and North Korea, and a further internationalization of the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). This is reinforced by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Diplomatic Engagement: TASS reports Putin's statement on developing relations with Kyrgyzstan, framing it as beneficial for both nations and regional stability. This highlights RF efforts to maintain and expand alliances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

RF will concentrate and intensify offensive ground operations on the Chasiv Yar axis and Pokrovsk axis, supported by heavy artillery (with drone observation and thermal imaging targeting fortified positions, and MLRS targeting strongpoints, with active engagement from units like the 52nd Guards Artillery Brigade, and RF Naval Infantry/Tank Brigade drone operators targeting camouflaged positions in Maliyivka, and RF's "Anvar" unit actively clearing buffer zones in Kursk Oblast with strikes on UAF positions and Starlink terminals), increased GAB employment via tactical aviation (including helicopter reconnaissance/support, and KAABs on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast), and significant EW suppression to achieve breakthroughs and consolidate claimed territorial gains (e.g., Fedorivka), while continuing to reconstruct and normalize life in captured areas (Avdiivka). The reported use of "ZooPark" radar systems suggests RF will continue efforts to suppress UAF artillery effectiveness through counter-battery fire. RF will also continue tactical drone strikes against UA vehicles (including potential Novator armored vehicle in Filyi area and vehicles in Nova Mayachka, Kherson Oblast) and personnel on various axes, leveraging localized drone units, with an increased focus on targeting UA robotic platforms. RF will continue to conduct counter-DRG operations using drones, as claimed by Poddubny. Simultaneously, RF will maintain a high tempo of combined missile and UAV strikes, particularly Shahed-type drones from the Black Sea (with a new group inbound for Odesa/Mykolaiv Oblast), and new waves from Bryansk Oblast, targeting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, military command nodes, and logistics hubs across the country, with heightened focus on Odesa Oblast and other southern coastal regions, as well as Kharkiv (expect a continuation of massed missile, air bomb, and Shahed attacks), Dnipropetrovsk (with a threat of aerial munitions in Synelnykivskyi district), Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts, including high-volume attacks like those seen in Zaporizhzhia. Border regions, especially Sumy Oblast and Kharkiv Oblast, will experience continued probing actions and deep strikes to fix UAF forces and create a "security strip," with ongoing heavy fighting and efforts to sustain units in the Sumy direction. RF will intensify assaults in the Dnipro delta island zone supported by aviation. UAF drone operations into RF territory, particularly targeting logistics and industrial sites, will likely escalate in response to the increased RF pressure on the front, leading to continued flight restrictions and railway disruptions in RF (e.g., Volgograd, Nizhny Novgorod, Leningrad, with potential for civilian injuries). RF tactical drones will continue to actively hunt for and engage UA robotic platforms. RF "Vostok" units will continue to employ "ZooPark" radars to suppress UA artillery. RF will leverage internal developments (e.g., Bryansk confession, Navy Day celebrations, Crocus City Hall investigation, Russian economy resilience narrative, NABU/SAP controversy, Kurgan memorial incident, internal military dissent, alleged Akhmat looting, antisemitic propaganda, increased religiosity, internal economic issues, concerts in Moscow, WarGonzo propaganda) for internal propaganda, while maintaining its external narrative on political resolution. RF will continue to exploit captured UA drone operator intelligence (leveraging captured Major Taras Muk for propaganda) and potentially issue further directives like the "suicide instructions" to prevent capture. RF will continue military vehicle maintenance and repair. RF will continue to cancel major public military events due to security concerns. RF units in Kherson and VDV will continue appeals for supplies. UAF units will continue fundraising for specific equipment (e.g., DJI Mavic 3T). Civilian evacuations from contested areas (Dobropillia, Rodinske) will continue. RF propaganda will continue to mock Ukrainian civilian initiatives and spread antisemitic narratives. RF will continue to leverage memorial events for IO purposes. RF will continue to claim destruction of UAV production and control points, and high AD interception rates. Alleged systematic looting by "Akhmat" special forces in occupied territories will likely continue. RF will continue to increase reconnaissance flights along NATO borders (Kaliningrad). RF milbloggers will continue to warn of increased drone attacks against Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

RF achieves a decisive breakthrough on the Chasiv Yar axis, exploiting successful EW degradation of UAF UAS capabilities and overwhelming UAF defenses through massed infantry and armored assaults, leading to significant UAF tactical withdrawals and potential collapse of a key defensive line. Concurrently, RF conducts a surge in naval activity in the Black Sea, employing advanced naval assets and potentially unconventional USVs/UUVs (including newly developed domestic models with demonstrated combined USV/UAV strike capabilities) against Ukrainian port infrastructure (Odesa, Mykolaiv) or Western maritime supply routes, aiming to establish naval dominance and isolate Ukraine from the Black Sea. This could be coupled with a coordinated, large-scale cyberattack against critical Ukrainian national infrastructure and further kinetic strikes against UA logistics in western Ukraine. The increasing threat to internal RF critical infrastructure could lead to RF escalating its retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian civilian centers, potentially targeting areas further west and with higher intensity. Furthermore, increased RF internal IO regarding alleged Ukrainian "crimes" and internal UA military discord (including antisemitic narratives and narratives of looting by RF forces, and statements from captured Major Taras Muk) could be a precursor to more aggressive RF actions in border regions, possibly including cross-border raids or limited incursions under the guise of "protecting" civilians or "restoring order," supported by sustained ground operations (as indicated by aid collections) and potentially augmented by the deployment of North Korean ground forces by August, leading to a significant increase in attritional combat power, particularly on the Sumy axis, forcing civilian evacuations. RF may also significantly escalate its efforts to neutralize UA robotic systems, degrading a key UA tactical advantage, and employ new and effective counter-battery systems like "ZooPark" more widely to suppress UAF artillery, creating local fire superiority for ground advances, reinforced by MLRS strikes on fortified positions. A political breakthrough (e.g., Trump-mediated ceasefire in Cambodia-Thailand) could be used by RF to pressure Ukraine into unwanted negotiations or to re-allocate forces, if diplomatic efforts gain momentum. The cancellation of the main Navy Day parade for security reasons, if a deliberate deception, could precede a more unexpected and significant maritime or combined arms operation. RF may also significantly increase the use of FPV drones armed with firearms for close-quarters engagement or terror tactics against UAF personnel. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Immediate (0-24 hours): Continued intense RF missile and drone strikes targeting cities and infrastructure (Kharkiv, Dnipro, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, and now southern Odesa/Mykolaiv with a new group inbound, though recent attacks appear negated, and high volume in Zaporizhzhia, Khmelnytskyi, and Nova Mayachka, Kherson Oblast), with civilian casualties and damage. RF tactical aviation activity will remain high, including helicopter operations, and KAABs on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast, with threat of aerial munitions in Synelnykivskyi district. RF pressure on Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar will remain high, with RF likely preparing for a renewed major assault on Chasiv Yar, and attempting localized advances (e.g., Fedorivka), and destroying UAF strongpoints with MLRS. RF Naval Infantry/Tank Brigade drone operators will continue to target camouflaged positions. RF will continue assaults in the Dnipro delta island zone. RF's "Anvar" unit will continue clearing operations in border areas of Kursk Oblast. UAF will focus on immediate defensive actions and counter-battery fire, while conducting localized counter-offensives in areas like Sumy Oblast, potentially leveraging the SSO "Bravo" unit, and continue effective artillery/drone strikes (148th OABr). Expect further UA drone strikes on RF territory, including potential targets in central RF, with a focus on transportation and energy infrastructure, as seen in Volgograd, Smolensk, Voronezh, Kaluga, Nizhny Novgorod, Pskov, Pulkovo, Rostov, and Leningrad, leading to further train delays in RF and civilian injuries. RF tactical drones will continue to actively hunt for and engage UA robotic platforms. RF "Vostok" units will continue to employ "ZooPark" radars to suppress UA artillery. RF will leverage internal developments (e.g., Bryansk confession, Navy Day celebrations, Crocus City Hall investigation, Russian economy resilience narrative, NABU/SAP controversy, Kurgan memorial incident, internal military dissent, alleged Akhmat looting, antisemitic propaganda) for internal propaganda, including Peskov's statement, and propaganda mocking Ukrainian civilian initiatives. RF will continue to exploit captured UA drone operator intelligence (including from Major Taras Muk) and potentially issue further directives like the "suicide instructions." RF will continue military vehicle repair and maintenance, and reconstructing in Avdiivka. RF will continue to cancel major public military events due to security concerns. RF units in Kherson and VDV will continue appeals for supplies. UAF units will continue fundraising for specific equipment (e.g., DJI Mavic 3T). Civilian evacuations from contested areas (Dobropillia, Rodinske) will continue. UA internal investigation into the TCC officer assault in Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force will continue reconnaissance UAV activity. Poltava TCC and SP will remain dispersed and relocated. Ukraine will scale up explosives production. RF milbloggers will continue to warn of increased drone attacks against Ukraine.
• Short-Term (24-72 hours): Expect a major RF ground assault on Chasiv Yar, as indicated by ISW's unfavorable forecast for Ukraine regarding "more massive strikes." UAF will be at a critical decision point regarding tactical withdrawals or committing reserves to hold ground. Continued RF efforts to consolidate defensive gains west of Avdiivka. Increased UAF long-range strikes against RF military targets and logistics in occupied territories and RF border regions. RF will likely maintain a high tempo of deep strikes, particularly against coastal regions and border areas like Sumy Oblast, and further inland in Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts, and may demonstrate new combined USV/UAV maritime strike capabilities. RF will continue to pursue diplomatic engagement with partners like Kyrgyzstan. The focus on Medical Worker's Day by Ukrainian leadership will continue to be used for morale boosting.
• Medium-Term (72 hours - 1 week): The outcome of the Chasiv Yar assault will significantly shape the immediate operational picture. If RF achieves substantial gains, UAF will face decisions on establishing new defensive lines and seeking additional Western aid. If UAF holds, RF may shift focus or pause to reconstitute. RF will likely continue to probe vulnerabilities in border regions and maintain pressure with deep strikes. The ongoing information campaign regarding NABU/SAP could impact the timing and nature of Western support packages. Diplomatic discussions (Starmer-Trump, Trump's ongoing interest, Whitkoff's statements, Rubio's comment on Trump losing patience with Putin, and the successful Trump mediation in Cambodia-Thailand) could begin to shape long-term international perspectives on the conflict and potentially lead to intensified pressure for a resolution. The potential for North Korean troop deployment in August will become a critical intelligence and planning factor, requiring close monitoring. RF will likely continue to leverage Navy Day for internal morale boosting, despite event cancellations.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• RF EW and Counter-Battery Capabilities and Tactics (Chasiv Yar/Eastern Axes): Specific models, frequencies, power output, and deployment patterns of new RF EW systems. Effectiveness and widespread deployment of "ZooPark" radar systems against various UAF artillery types. Methods of UAF FPV drone "interception" of Lancet. (Collection Requirement: SIGINT, IMINT, HUMINT from captured personnel, TECHINT on captured equipment).
• RF Force Generation/Morale: Granular data on the combat effectiveness and morale of RF units, particularly those recently deployed or redeployed, and the impact of internal RF issues (e.g., Chelyabinsk corruption arrests, Bryansk confession, internal unrest due to drone attacks, financial scams, plane crashes, Crocus City Hall investigation details, police incidents, alcohol sales proposals, Kurgan memorial incident, internal military dissent, increased religiosity, internal economic issues, concerts in Moscow, WarGonzo propaganda) on military cohesion. Focus on the impact of the "Kiyanin" video narrative and the "soldier shooting commander" video on UAF troops and population, and the internal impact of increased UA drone strikes on RF territory. Confirmation and details on the potential deployment of North Korean troops, including numbers, capabilities, and intended roles. (Collection Requirement: HUMINT, OSINT from RF/UA social media, SIGINT regarding international military exchanges).
• RF Strategic Air/Missile Munitions: Current inventory and production rates of key RF missile types (e.g., Kh-series, Iskander) and Shahed UAVs (domestic production vs. foreign supply) to project future strike capabilities, especially in light of the massed attacks on Kharkiv, and KAABs on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast, and the new group inbound for Odesa/Mykolaiv Oblast, and aerial munitions threat in Synelnykivskyi district. (Collection Requirement: OSINT from supply chain analysis, IMINT on production facilities).
• Black Sea Fleet Intentions: Detailed intelligence on the specific objectives and composition of "July Storm" naval exercises, the capabilities of the new domestic RF USVs, the exact operational parameters of the combined USV/UAV strike package, and their readiness for wider deployment, and the real threat of UUV/USV attacks on Novorossiysk/Anapa, and the impact of UAF anti-drone successes in Odesa. Assess the strategic implications of the cancellation of the main Navy Day parade. (Collection Requirement: COMINT, IMINT on naval movements, TECHINT on USV capabilities).
• Impact of Domestic Political Issues: Detailed assessment of the actual and perceived impact of the NABU/SAP controversy on Western aid and Ukrainian public support, and the most effective counter-IO strategies, especially given comments from Ukrainian milbloggers. Assess the extent of internal fundraising efforts for the UAF. Assess the impact of the TCC officer assault on public trust and mobilization efforts. Assess the impact of Poltava TCC relocation. Assess the impact of scaling up explosives production on the domestic front. (Collection Requirement: HUMINT from diplomatic channels, OSINT from Western and Ukrainian media).
• Chinese UAVs: Confirmation of RF acquisition/use of specific advanced Chinese UAV models (e.g., Caihong series) and their current deployment/intended roles in the conflict. (Collection Requirement: IMINT, TECHINT).
• RF Anti-Drone Capabilities: Specifics on RF capabilities to intercept UA drones, particularly the aerial engagement methods indicated by Colonelcassad's video, the systems used in Smolensk, Voronezh, Kaluga, Nizhny Novgorod, Pskov, Pulkovo, Rostov, and Leningrad, and their tactics/equipment for targeting UA robotic platforms, and the capabilities of RF Naval Infantry and Tank Brigade drone operators in target destruction (e.g., Maliyivka). Verify claims of arming FPV drones with Kalashnikovs. (Collection Requirement: TECHINT, IMINT).
• RF Border Incursion Intentions: Detailed assessment of RF intentions regarding cross-border operations from Kursk/Bryansk Oblasts into Sumy Oblast beyond current probing actions, given the increased RF IO about "Ukrainian crimes" in these areas and Colonelcassad's aid collection for units in the Sumy direction, and confirmed heavy fighting. Specifically, what is the extent and nature of reported UA advances in Sumy Oblast and the specific role/intent of SSO "Bravo" redeployment. Further details on RF's "Anvar" unit operations and objectives in Kursk Oblast, and the extent of UA_REG TEAM's success in Kursk. (Collection Requirement: HUMINT, IMINT, SIGINT).
• RF Tactical Aviation Deployment: Current operational bases and sortie generation rates for RF tactical aviation supporting GAB launches and helicopter deployments, including current training exercises as indicated by helicopter flights, and recent KAAB launches on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast, and the threat to Synelnykivskyi district. (Collection Requirement: IMINT, SIGINT).
• RF Artillery Precision Capabilities: Detailed assessment of the extent of RF artillery's ability to conduct precision strikes on fortified positions using aerial and thermal imaging, and whether this represents a widespread capability or isolated successes, including MLRS effectiveness and the specific contributions of units like the 52nd Guards Artillery Brigade. (Collection Requirement: IMINT, TECHINT, BDA).
• Shahed Flight Trajectories and Intentions: More precise intelligence on the specific targets and flight patterns of the Shahed groups now transiting through Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava Oblasts, as well as the high volume of strikes in Zaporizhzhia and the two districts in Dnipropetrovsk, and the massed Shahed attack on Kharkiv, and the new group inbound for Odesa/Mykolaiv. (Collection Requirement: SIGINT, IMINT).
• Pokrovsk Axis Ground Situation: More granular detail on the current ground situation around Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and Myrnohrad, including exact RF forces involved, their specific advances, and the effectiveness of UAF reserves, and the impact of the 47th OABr's counter-fire in Zverovo, and the 46th Airmobile Brigade's defensive successes. Assess the effectiveness of RF encirclement efforts around Konstantinovka. Assess RF reconstruction efforts in Avdiivka and their implications for RF operational intent and resource allocation. Further BDA on claimed Novator destruction in Filyi area. Verify the reported evacuation of UAF field HQ in Pokrovsk. Verify RF claim of Maliyivka liberation and the circumstances. (Collection Requirement: IMINT, HUMINT).
• RF Dnipro Delta Operations: Specifics on RF force composition, objectives, and progress in the Dnipro delta island zone, and the capabilities of supporting aviation. (Collection Requirement: IMINT, SIGINT).
• Impact of Western Equipment on UA Operations: Detailed analysis of the operational impact and maintenance requirements of Western-supplied equipment, such as the Australian Bushmaster armored vehicles, in combat. (Collection Requirement: HUMINT, BDA).
• PMC Wagner Information Operations: Verify the specific content and affiliation of "Alex Parker Returns" with PMC Wagner, and analyze the context of "fewer insiders" for its implications on Wagner's information operations or internal structure. (Collection Requirement: OSINT).
• Occupied Territory Railway Sabotage: Assess the full impact and extent of the "ATESH" partisan action on the railway in Zaporizhzhia, including the duration of disruption and RF's repair capabilities. (Collection Requirement: IMINT, OSINT from local sources).
• Civilian Evacuation Patterns: Analyze patterns and scale of civilian evacuations from frontline communities like Dobropillia and Rodinske to better anticipate RF advances and humanitarian needs. (Collection Requirement: OSINT, HUMINT).
• Allegations of Looting by RF Forces: Independent verification and detailed intelligence on the alleged systematic looting by "Akhmat" special forces in Horlivka, including scope, specific units involved, and its impact on civilian populations and RF control. (Collection Requirement: HUMINT, OSINT from local sources).
• RF Avoidance of Capture Tactics: Further intelligence on the distribution and enforcement of directives like the "suicide instructions" for RF troops, and their effectiveness. (Collection Requirement: HUMINT from POWs, OSINT from RF internal channels).
• Turkey Wildfires: Assessment of the immediate and long-term impact of the wildfires in Turkey on regional stability, particularly regarding NATO assets or humanitarian response efforts. (Collection Requirement: OSINT, IMINT).

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize Counter-EW and Counter-Battery Operations (Chasiv Yar and Eastern Axes): Immediate allocation of dedicated SIGINT and Electronic Attack (EA) assets to the Chasiv Yar axis to identify, locate, and disrupt new RF EW systems. Develop and deploy counter-battery solutions specifically targeting RF "ZooPark" and similar radar systems to mitigate their impact on UAF artillery. Coordinate with international partners for rapid development/deployment of new UAF anti-EW capabilities.
2. Reinforce and Fortify (Chasiv Yar & Pokrovsk): Accelerate deployment of mobile anti-tank systems, anti-drone defenses (including man-portable systems for FPV threats), and pre-positioned ammunition stockpiles to bolster defensive lines in Chasiv Yar, anticipating the RF assault. Ensure defensive positions are hardened against observed RF artillery precision strikes and MLRS attacks. Assess the impact of reported RF advances around Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk and commit necessary reserves and defensive measures to stabilize the situation, leveraging successes such as the 47th OABr's and 46th Airmobile Brigade's engagements. Strengthen defenses against RF encirclement efforts on the Konstantinovka axis. Verify the reported UAF field HQ evacuation from Pokrovsk and implement contingency C2 plans if confirmed. Verify Maliyivka status and impact on defenses.
3. Enhance Coastal and Border Air Defense: Immediately activate and reinforce air defense systems in Southern Odesa Oblast (Tatarbunary, and surrounding areas) to intercept incoming Shahed UAVs from the Black Sea. Emphasize mobile AD units and C-UAS capabilities along the Sumy and Kharkiv border regions due to new drone threats from Bryansk/Luhansk Oblasts and continued tactical aviation activity, particularly against Shahed groups transiting Sumy Oblast towards Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts, and in response to massed attacks on Kharkiv, and KAABs on Sumy Oblast. Reinforce AD capabilities based on the known resolution of Mykolaiv drone attacks to free up resources. Issue public alerts for Zaporizhzhia Oblast based on new warning and ongoing high strike volume, and for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast based on confirmed recent strikes (especially Synelnykivskyi district), and Khmelnytskyi Oblast and Poltava Oblast, and Nova Mayachka, Kherson Oblast. Leverage the 94% interception rate of UAVs as a success story to bolster public confidence and deter further RF massed attacks.
4. Exploit RF Vulnerabilities (Vuhledar & Avdiivka):
   • Vuhledar: Conduct immediate battle damage assessment (BDA) on confirmed RF losses from the Vuhledar assault to fully understand their tactical failure. Launch targeted small-unit reconnaissance and precision strikes (e.g., FPV, mortar) against any exposed RF remnants or vulnerable positions.
   • Avdiivka: Increase targeted precision strikes (HIMARS, GMLRS, artillery) against identified RF fortification efforts and troop concentrations in Ocheretyne area during their operational pause, preventing consolidation. Disrupt RF reconstruction efforts in Avdiivka through precision strikes on key materials or personnel.
5. Expand UAS Production & Innovation: Accelerate domestic production of interceptor drones and FPV drones, and invest in innovative counter-Lancet/loitering munition solutions. Ensure Starlink redundancy and explore alternative secure communication channels. Prioritize development of countermeasures and defensive tactics for UA robotic platforms against RF tactical drones, leveraging intelligence from captured UA drone operators (including Major Taras Muk's statements). Support and expand the operational capabilities of UAF drone units (e.g., 82nd Air Assault Brigade, Perun UAV Battalion, 148th OABr). Increase reconnaissance UAV activity over border regions like Eastern Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Develop countermeasures for potential RF FPV drones armed with firearms. Scale up domestic explosives production.
6. Proactive Information Operations: Immediately leverage the Vuhledar success and RF internal issues (Tambov, Volgograd, Smolensk, Chelyabinsk strikes/corruption, Bryansk confession, airport restrictions in Nizhny Novgorod, Pskov, Pulkovo, Leningrad, financial scams, Crocus City Hall narrative, Zelenskyy "whining" narrative, plane crash aftermath, Navy Day celebrations, Russian economy resilience narrative, police incidents, alcohol sales proposals, Kurgan memorial incident, internal military dissent, increased religiosity, internal economic issues, concerts in Moscow, WarGonzo propaganda) in information campaigns targeting RF forces and the Russian population to degrade morale and sow internal discord. Counter RF disinformation regarding mobilization, specifically addressing the "Kiyanin" narrative and the "soldier shooting commander" narrative, reinforcing government efforts to support soldiers’ families and maintaining military cohesion, and addressing the TCC officer assault in Kryvyi Rih. Develop clear and effective counter-narratives regarding the NABU/SAP controversy to maintain international and domestic confidence. Highlight the destruction of UA vehicles and robotic platforms by RF tactical drones as a cautionary tale for force protection, and pre-emptively expose any fabricated RF narratives about "Ukrainian crimes" in border regions, including those related to the "Anvar" unit. Amplify UAF successes, such as advances in Sumy Oblast and the successful defense of Dnipropetrovsk, to boost domestic morale. Utilize ISW's forecast of massive RF strikes to prepare the public and international partners for escalation. Actively counter RF narratives that emphasize their military self-reliance and strength, including the "ZooPark" radar claims, and the "Rubicon" tank destruction claims, and the claimed destruction of UA tanks, and the combined USV/UAV strike capability, and the claimed Novator destruction. Leverage confirmed RF logistics disruptions within RF territory, including the Zaporizhzhia railway sabotage. Highlight internal UAF support through fundraising (e.g., Rubizh brigade, Perun UAV battalion). Emphasize the potential threat of North Korean troop deployment to secure additional international support, leveraging the latest Reuters report. Continue to highlight the effectiveness of Western military aid, as demonstrated by the DShV's Bushmaster vehicles. Use the successful 94% UAV interception rate as a key message point. Counter RF narratives about "reconstruction" in occupied territories (e.g., Avdiivka). Counter RF propaganda mocking Ukrainian civilian efforts and antisemitic narratives. Expose and condemn alleged looting by "Akhmat" special forces in Horlivka. Utilize captured RF documents (e.g., suicide instructions) to expose RF's harsh military realities. Immediately counter RF propaganda from captured UA personnel.
7. Monitor Black Sea Activity: Increase ISR over the Black Sea, particularly off the coast of Snake Island and towards Odesa Oblast, to detect and track incoming UAVs and identify any unusual RF naval movements, including testing/deployment of new domestic USVs, and any operational deployment of the new combined USV/UAV strike package, indicative of future operations. Analyze Baltic Fleet exercises for potential new tactics or capabilities. Assess the implications of the cancellation of the main Navy Day parade.
8. Strategic Diplomatic Engagement: Proactively engage with international partners (e.g., UK, US) to understand and shape discussions on conflict resolution, ensuring Ukrainian interests are fully represented and supported in any future negotiations. Maintain direct lines of communication with US political figures, including those in the Trump orbit, to ensure a clear understanding of Ukraine's strategic objectives and red lines, and to address concerns such as Trump's reported "impatience with Putin," noting his recent successful mediation in Cambodia-Thailand as a potential indicator of future engagement.
9. Track RF Tactical Aviation: Maintain high vigilance and deploy passive air defense sensors to track RF tactical aviation activity, particularly in areas prone to GAB launches and helicopter deployments, to provide early warning to ground units, especially for KAABs targeting Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast, and strike UAVs on Kharkiv/Starokostiantyniv, and the aerial munitions threat in Synelnykivskyi district.
10. Analyze SSO "Bravo" Redeployment: Conduct immediate analysis of the SSO "Bravo" unit's capabilities and training to understand the potential impact of their redeployment to the Sumy direction, and adjust UAF operational plans accordingly. Monitor RF aid collection efforts for units in this direction for indicators of future RF actions, and the reported heavy fighting there.
11. Assess Kherson Strike: Conduct BDA on the GUVPD building in Kherson to determine the extent of damage and operational impact, and adjust security protocols for similar facilities. Assess ASTRA's claims of UA-attributed fatalities in Kherson Oblast.
12. Monitor North Korean Troop Deployment: Establish immediate and robust collection requirements for intelligence regarding any potential North Korean troop deployment to Russia, focusing on indicators such as troop movements, logistics, training, and political statements, and prepare contingency plans for a potential increase in RF ground combat power.
13. Adapt to Combined Maritime Threats: Develop and deploy countermeasures against RF's new combined USV/UAV maritime strike capabilities, focusing on detection, identification, and neutralization of both platforms in coastal areas and maritime operational zones.
14. Enhance Military Vehicle Maintenance & Logistics: Prioritize resources for the maintenance and repair of UAF military vehicles, particularly Western-supplied armored vehicles like the Bushmaster, to ensure sustained operational readiness. This includes securing spare parts and technical expertise.
15. Assess and Counter Railway Sabotage in Occupied Territories: Conduct immediate reconnaissance and BDA on the railway sabotage in Zaporizhzhia to understand its full impact. Develop and implement enhanced counter-sabotage measures for critical logistics infrastructure in occupied territories.
16. Support Civilian Protection and Evacuation: Allocate resources and coordinate with civilian authorities to support and manage civilian evacuations from areas under direct threat (e.g., Dobropillia, Rodinske), ensuring safe passage and humanitarian aid.
17. Energy Infrastructure Hardening: Continue prioritizing resources for repairing and hardening Ukrainian energy infrastructure, informed by ongoing assessments from the Ministry of Energy, to mitigate the impact of future RF strikes.
18. Address Looting in Occupied Territories: Publicize and condemn any verified instances of looting by RF forces (e.g., alleged "Akhmat" activity in Horlivka) to discredit RF and expose their disregard for civilian property and international law. Provide guidance and support to civilians in occupied territories on documenting such incidents.
19. Monitor NATO Border Activity: Continue to monitor and assess RF reactions and IO regarding increased NATO reconnaissance flights along the Kaliningrad border.
20. Counter RF Drone Attack Warnings: Publicly address and prepare for RF milblogger warnings of massive drone attacks against Ukraine, reinforcing UAF AD capabilities and civil defense measures.