Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 260207Z JUL 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide threat from RF missile and UAV attacks persists. Guided Aerial Bombs (GABs), including UMPB-5 and FAB-3000, remain a significant threat in frontline areas, specifically in Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. New ballistic missile threat active from the northeast and Donetsk Oblast. Operational use of P-800 Onyx anti-ship missiles against ground targets in Odesa confirmed. RF tactical aviation activity observed in southeastern direction. UAF Air Force reports 54/61 enemy UAVs and 0/2 Iskander-M/KN-23 missiles shot down or suppressed overnight. Nationwide air alarm declared due to MiG-31K launch, subsequently cleared. UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky states new air defense systems for Ukraine are "on the way." RF is preparing new missile strike on Ukraine, with 3x Tu-95MS, 4x Tu-22M3, 8x MiG-31K, 2x Tu-160 observed for potential deployment. Starlink connectivity experienced outages across the entire front line, confirmed as software-related and largely resolved; however, some units (7th Division, Zaporizhzhia) still report impacts. Ukraine's SVR and GUR have provided President Zelenskyy with reports on RF intentions for Summer-Autumn operations. EU adopted final decision on "roaming visa-free travel" with Ukraine. RF expresses condolences to Putin for Amur Oblast aviation catastrophe. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Odesa Oblast: Confirmed destruction of a residential 9-story building and the Pryvoz market due to RF drone attacks, with civilian casualties (1 fatality, 3 injured at Pryvoz, others unknown but likely higher). Explosion on a Ukrainian dredge ship "Delta-Lotsman" in Bystre estuary resulted in 3 deaths and injuries. Enemy reconnaissance UAV detected in Black Sea waters near Zatoka, actively being engaged by UAF assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Seven UAVs confirmed shot down. New threat of aviation weapon use in Synelnikivskyi district. New missile threat detected for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol, Kryvyi Rih, Kamyanske, Dnipro districts). Ongoing shelling of Nikopol, Myrivska, and Marhanets communities with drones and artillery; damage to residential buildings, a medical facility, and a lyceum in Nikopol confirmed. New reports indicate threat of enemy strike UAVs from the northeast in Synelnikivskyi district, extending to Pavlohrad and Samara districts. New groups of enemy strike UAVs are moving from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk. Five "mopeds" (drones) reported flying towards Dnipro from the Synelnikivskyi direction. All reported "mopeds" (drones) near Kremenchuk and Svitlovodsk are confirmed neutralized. RF launched KAABs towards southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from Donetsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAVs moving towards Dnipro. Explosions reported in Dnipro. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 4 cruise missiles are en route towards Kamyanske. UAF Air Force confirms missiles are via Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, now past Kamyanske. Explosions reported in the suburbs of Dnipro. RF struck Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with missiles, resulting in a fire. Explosions reported in Dnipro. UAF Air Force reports a target on Dnipro. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports ballistic missiles on Dnipro/Samar (3 missiles) and missiles on Kamyanske/Kremenchuk. UAF Air Force reports groups of Shaheds heading to Dnipro/Kamianske, and Pavlohrad. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports possible repeated launches. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports ballistic missile launched from Crimea towards Dnipro, which has flown past Marhanets towards Kamianske. UAF Air Force reports missile target is Dnipro/Kamianske. Impacts confirmed in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF milblogger N. Vanek reports a hit. Operatsiya Z milbloggers claim powerful explosions and fires attacking enemy targets in Dnipropetrovsk and Dniprodzerzhynsk (Kamianske). UAF Air Force confirms UAVs targeting Zaporizhzhia, Pavlohrad, Poltava, Kamianske/Dnipro, and Konotop. The entire Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is now under red alert. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports approximately 30 "mopeds" (drones) are approaching Dnipro from various directions, with an additional 6 drones approaching Kamianske instead of Dnipro, indicating an intensified, multi-directional drone attack. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports 16 drones on Dnipro. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports 5 drones on Kamyanske. NGP Razvedka posts video indicating AD in Dnipro failed to respond. NGP Razvedka posts video of epicenter in Kamianske showing a large building engulfed in flames. Dnipropetrovsk ODA reports massive attack on Dnipro and oblast continues. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports 7 drones remain in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, all heading to Dnipro. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports the last drone is over Kamianske. UAF Air Force reports a missile through Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipro. UAF Air Force warns of ballistic missile threat from the east. New reports from RF milbloggers show videos of Dnipropetrovsk (Dniprodzerzhynsk / Kamianske) engulfed in black smoke and fire, confirming a significant incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Axis): RF sources claim significant advances: near Redkodub, Karpovka, Glushchenkovo, Novy Mir, and capture of Novotoretskoye. RF claims "fights began on the southern and southwestern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk" (Pokrovsk). MOD Russia claims Grad MLRS used against an AFU stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. UAF (MURAMASA) continues successful engagements against RF ground probes on Kostiantynivka axis. UAF Air Force reports RF launches of GABs onto Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad claims a precision FAB strike on a bridge over the Vovcha River. UAF General Staff reports clashes near Rusyn Yar, Myrolubivka, Zatyshok, Lysivka, Popiv Yar, Myrnohrad, Zvirove, Udachne, Oleksiyivka, Novoukrayinka, Mayak, Novoekonomichne, Kotlyne, Dachne and towards Pokrovsk, Pankivka, Volodymyrivka, Sukhetske. RF milbloggers "Operatsiya Z" claim continued destruction of UAF personnel near Pokrovsk. Colonelcassad posts video of FPV drone strike near Volodymyrivka. "Two Majors" milbloggers claim a breakthrough to Aleksandro-Kalinovo on the Konstantinovka direction. 2 killed, 14 injured from Russian shelling in Konstantinovka. Donetsk Oblast is expanding forced evacuation. "Operatsiya Z" claims Novoekonomichne liberated and approaching Dmytrov (Mirnohrad). TASS claims "Center" group liberated Novoekonomichne and Zverevo. Colonelcassad now claims liberation of Shevchenko and Pivdenny micro-districts in Chasiv Yar by 98th VDV, and envelopment of Zemlianky micro-districts. Colonelcassad now claims liberation of Yablonovka on the Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad posts video of alleged destruction of UAF UAV control point in Poltavka. Kotsnews reports RF advances threaten T0406 road to Pokrovsk and Mirnograd garrisons. Butusov Plus posts video showing Mirnohrad in ruins. Z комитет + карта СВО map depicts Krasnoarmeyskoye direction with claimed RF control and fortifications. Alex Parker Returns claims RF forces have secured positions in Pokrovsk. Threat of enemy strike UAVs detected in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad video shows drone footage with thermal imaging, documenting strikes on buildings, vehicles (potential armored personnel carriers and trucks), a communication tower, and targets identified as 'ПВД', 'ТАнк', 'АВТО', 'ПАТЧ-АНТЕННА', 'СИСТЕМА СВЯЗИ', 'СПУТНИКОВАЯ АНТЕНТА', 'БАБА-ЯГА', with 'MARDER' designation for a vehicle. TASS reports that the liberation of Novoekonomichne by Russian fighters allows them to put pressure on the AFU grouping near Krasnyi Lyman in DNR and "seriously complicate" enemy logistics. RF Army reports cleaning up two settlements near Krasnoarmeysk in DNR. TASS reports Russian fighters improved tactical position near Petrovsky, taking about 3.5 km of the LNR administrative border under fire control. Multiple powerful explosions reported in Donetsk with RF AD response. UAF Air Force reports ballistic missile threat from Donetsk, subsequently cleared. TASS posts video claiming "liberation" of Novoekonomichne, showing drone footage of destroyed buildings and a Russian flag. TASS reports RF forces created a "fire bag" for UAF in the Yuzhny quarter of Chasiv Yar. Operational ZSU reports explosions in occupied Donetsk, implying RF "dome defense system" was ineffective, and additionally claims 8 impacts on RF base and railway infrastructure. CyberBoroshno claims successful strike on RF HQ in Donetsk. UAF struck the Zasyadko mine in Kyivskyi district of Donetsk, causing a fire in an administrative building; ASTRA reports direct hit with photos confirming significant fire and smoke plumes. Slivochniy Kapriz posts a video of aerial footage showing a village with damaged buildings and a soldier planting a Russian flag, captioned "25.07.25 Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoye." TASS reports advisor to DPR head, Igor Kimakovsky, claims RF forces expelled UAF from positions in Zelenyy Hay, DNR. Kotsnews posts video titled "Fights for Zverevo. How the village was liberated." This video shows aerial reconnaissance of a damaged settlement with destroyed buildings and damaged vehicles, confirming ongoing combat and RF claims of taking Zverevo, and indicating a threat to the T0406 road to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Starshy Edda posts video titled "Fights for Zverevo. How the village was liberated", further confirming RF advances. Z комитет + карта СВО map depicts Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk) area indicating potential RF control and fortification efforts. BUTUSOV PLUS video shows mass liquidation of Russian forces near Torske. Residents of Yenakiieve and Khartsyzk heard powerful explosion. Lower Krynka photos show smoke plume from likely impact. Butusov Plus posts videos showing HIMARS strikes on Zasyadko mine in occupied Donetsk. Colonelcassad reports RF units (including DRG) penetrating the center of Krasnoarmeysk. Rybar tactical map update confirms RF advances around Novoekonomichne towards Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. DeepState photo message suggests RF has begun assault on Pokrovsk. Colonelcassad reports RF units are fighting for control over Nikanorovka and Zatyshok. Z комитет + карта СВО map confirms RF gains around Kolodyazi, indicating continued pressure on the Lyman axis. MoD Russia congratulates 5th Separate Guards Motorised Rifle Brigade on liberation of Novoekonomichye. Kotsnews reports war correspondent Andrei Filatov went missing near Pokrovsk. Mash na Donbasse also reports Filatov under FPV drone fire. BUTUSOV PLUS reports Russian war correspondent Andrei Filatov missing after FPV drone attack near Pokrovsk. Russian milbloggers claim continued advances near Pokrovsk, citing Polish media reports of UAF infantry shortages and RF intent to encircle the city. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition claims Russian forces have taken control of Aleksandro-Kalinovo on the Konstantinovka direction in DNR. Chef Hayabusa posts video of a solitary figure in the Yalta-Zaporizhzhia area, Donetsk Oblast, with a crosshair, implying reconnaissance or targeting. Operatsiya Z reports Russia is consolidating positions in Kamyanske and conducting assault operations towards Stepnohirsk, citing DeepState. Colonelcassad reports RF personnel, identified as Russian, conducting clearing operations in an urban/semi-urban environment, questioning a civilian identified as Russian, indicating the presence of RF forces within Pokrovsk. MoD Russia video shows aerial footage of a populated area with multiple explosions, indicating high-precision strikes on temporary deployment areas of UAF units. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a satellite or aerial reconnaissance map overlayed with tactical markers, indicating the frontline in Donetsk Oblast, without providing further detail. Военкор Котенок posts a tactical map of the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, indicating continued RF focus on this axis. Colonelcassad video shows a military vehicle, likely a tank or armored personnel carrier, moving along a road in a semi-rural or suburban area, with telemetry data overlayed, indicating ongoing military operations in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. RF claims to have liberated Aleksandro-Kalinovo. TASS reports UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky stated a difficult situation on five fronts. Colonelcassad reports RF using a new 152mm self-propelled howitzer, "Hyacinth-K" (Giatsint-K), on a BAZ-6910-027 "Voshchina" wheeled chassis, with a range of over 30 km, on the Konstantinovka direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for claimed advances, HIGH for RF intent, MEDIUM for UAF shortages).
• Cherkasy Oblast: Seven individuals, including a child, injured from RF missile attack, with casualties rising to 12. Damage to a cemetery. New threat of enemy strike UAVs from the northeast for Cherkasy Oblast. Colonelcassad posts a video alleging the strike on Cherkasy was by an Iskander-K targeting an abandoned 41st Guards Tank Division infrastructure, Hotel "Vlada" (alleged UAF personnel lodging), and garage cooperatives (alleged UAV production). Groups of strike drones moving towards Cherkasy Oblast. UAV detected moving past Drabiv towards Pereiaslav. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Kharkiv Oblast: RF sources claim "North" group continued creating a "security strip." First operational use of a FAB-3000 M-54 UMPK against a Ukrainian strongpoint in Lyptsi. Lyptsi confirmed fully under Ukrainian control. Positional fighting continues in Vovchansk. Kharkiv Oblast Administration reports 9 settlements struck. RF forces claimed "infiltrated UAF defenses near Melovoe, crossed the Verkhnya Dvurechnaya river, and secured its western bank." UAF Air Force reports new GAB launches onto Kharkiv Oblast. KAAB hit a multi-story building in Kharkiv, causing 41 injured (including 6 children). ASTRA and Operatyvny ZSU post videos of KAB hits on a multi-story residential building. OTU "Kharkiv" reports on successful aero reconnaissance strikes destroying enemy vehicles and positions. UAF General Staff reports clashes near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Dvorichna and towards Petro-Ivanivka. Oleg Syniehubov posts photos of returned POWs. New RBK-Ukraina reports 39 injured, 6 children. RF drone attack on Kharkiv confirmed. Fighterbomber posts video and photo implying three FAB-500 strikes on the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (ГУ МВД). ОТУ "Харків" posts new drone footage showing "Molniya" strike UAVs destroying Russian observation posts and a UAZ 'Bukhanka'. Enemy strike UAVs detected on the eastern outskirts of Kharkiv Oblast, course west. Likely reconnaissance UAVs on the western outskirts of Kharkiv, possible AD engagement. UAV in Balakliya area, course southwest. TASS reports RF forces inflicted strikes on a UAV control point, manpower, and armored vehicles of UAF in Kharkiv Oblast using "Grad" MLRS. UAF Air Force confirms GAB launches on Kharkiv from the northeast. Oleg Syniehubov reports 5 casualties remain in hospitals from yesterday's Kharkiv attack, now 6 injured from KAAB strike. MoD Russia video shows a Grad MLRS crew of the 44th Army Corps destroyed UAV command posts, manpower, and armored vehicles of AFU units in a forested area in Kharkiv direction. SBU detained a Russian spotter in Kharkiv, who reportedly expressed satisfaction with GAB attacks on the city, claiming many people were "torn apart." UAF Air Force reports KAAB incoming on Kharkiv. RBK-Ukraina reports one casualty and six injured in Kharkiv due to a KAAB strike on a medical facility in Industrialny district. Colonelcassad posts video of a burning building in Kharkiv, attributed to recent strikes. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Zelene, Petro-Ivanivka and Kamyanske. Oleg Syniehubov reports 12 casualties in Kharkiv, 6 of whom are in hospital. Colonelcassad reports new impact in Kharkiv. NgP raZvedka reports "good news from Kharkiv direction." ASTRA reports a KAAB strike on a tuberculosis dispensary in Kharkiv, injuring 12. RF milblogger claims Asian mercenaries, including women, arrived in Kharkiv. Oleg Syniehubov posts photo messages showing the consequences of the RF strike on the Industrialny district of Kharkiv, including a destroyed hospital room and damaged vehicle. ASTRA photo messages confirm the consequences of the RF aviation bomb on a hospital in Kharkiv, showing extensive damage to a room, debris, and humanitarian aid supplies. The number of injured has risen to 14, with three people unaccounted for. Oleg Syniehubov reports that information about people under the rubble in Kharkiv's Industrialny district was not confirmed. Operatyvny ZSU reports the number of injured in the Kharkiv attack has increased to 17. UAF Air Force reports GAB launches on Kharkiv Oblast. Oleg Syniehubov posts photos celebrating medical workers in Kharkiv. Emergency rescue operations concluded at Kharkiv. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, warns of possible bad weather in Kharkiv Oblast tomorrow. RBK-Ukraina reports that Russians again struck the center of Kharkiv with a drone, damaging a multi-apartment building. The mayor confirms the hit was on a road near residential buildings and a medical facility, with information on casualties being clarified. Oleg Syniehubov confirms RF attacked Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv with a UAV. ОТУ "Харків" video shows 58th Motorized Brigade creating and improving drones to destroy enemy equipment, disrupt logistics, and eliminate personnel. STERNENKO reports Kharkiv Mayor Terekhov confirms RF attacked Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv with a "Chernika" drone. Another explosion reported in Kharkiv. Kharkiv Mayor confirms another impact in the city center, near the first strike, with no casualties reported. Operatsiya Z posts drone footage showing infantry positions targeted by artillery/drones, and vehicle destruction in the Kupyansk direction, Kharkiv Oblast, attributed to the 352nd Regiment. Oleg Syniehubov reports an enemy UAV hit the Saltivskyi district of Kharkiv. Explosions reported in Kyivskyi district, Kharkiv. Another explosion in Kharkiv reported. RBK-Ukraina reports a preliminary drone strike on Shevchenkivskyi district. Oleg Syniehubov confirms a drone strike on Shevchenkivskyi district. Kharkiv Mayor Terekhov reports explosions in Kharkiv due to KAABs, confirming four KAAB hits on the Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv, targeting a non-operational civilian enterprise. One KAAB was reportedly shot down. One person injured in Kharkiv due to an RF KAAB strike. The number of injured in Kharkiv has risen to two. UAF Air Force reports a target on Kharkiv. RBK-Ukraina reports explosions in Kharkiv. Kharkiv Mayor Terekhov confirms rocket strikes and casualties. Oleg Syniehubov reports two people injured in Zmiiv due to RF shelling, with medics providing assistance. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs entering Kharkiv Oblast from various directions, followed by new explosions in Kharkiv as Shaheds attack Kyivskyi district. RBK-Ukraina reports continued explosions and drone activity in Kharkiv. Oleg Syniehubov confirms Kyivskyi district again under attack by RF UAVs. Oleg Syniehubov confirms three more UAV hits in Kyivskyi district, Kharkiv. NGP Razvedka posts video "Kharkiv received karmic retribution," showing a bright orange glow/plume of smoke in a nighttime cityscape. RBK-Ukraina reports Kharkiv was under massive combined attack for almost three hours. Oleg Syniehubov reports one person injured in Zmiiv as a result of shelling. UAF Air Force reports a missile through Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipro. TASS reports RF forces are advancing in three directions from Melovoe in Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 48-year-old woman injured in Orikhivska Hromada. RF Milbloggers claim RF forces "liberated Kamyanske" and are "storming Plavni, advancing further." Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration confirms continued RF strikes on a university sports hall. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV heading towards Zaporizhzhia from the south. UAF General Staff reports airstrikes at Mala Tokmachka, Prymorske, Malokaterynivka, Mahdalynivka. Clashes reported near Mala Tokmachka (Orikhiv direction) and Bilohirya (Huliaippole direction). TASS reports RF forces advancing north from Kamyanske towards Stepnohirsk. New RF milblogger video shows reconnaissance and destruction of AFU vehicles in Zatyshye. Z Committee + SVO Map milbloggers post a tactical map of Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating claimed advances towards Plavni. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports defenders destroy over 50 Russian reconnaissance drones weekly. The AFU Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovats Oblasts. Two Majors post a video from Zaporizhzhia front, showing drone footage of explosions on targets with a Ukrainian flag overlay and Russian insignia. Colonelcassad posts new map claiming RF advances near Kamyanske and Plavni. RF milblogger "Operatsiya Z" posted drone footage showing strikes on buildings and structures in a populated area. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected north of Zaporizhzhia city, suggesting continued ISR. New groups of enemy strike UAVs are moving through Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk. Five "mopeds" (drones) reported flying towards Dnipro from the Synelnikivskyi direction. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports the air raid alert has been cleared. UAF Air Force confirms GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a 64-year-old woman severely wounded in Stepnohirsk due to enemy attack. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a 63-year-old man killed in Polohivskyi Raion due to enemy attack. STERNENKO reports enemy activated offensive operations in Zaporizhzhia direction, near Stepnohirsk, with tactical advances. Воин DV posts video claiming liberation of Volnoye Pole by Vostok group and 5th Army storm units, and shows SAU "Dana" firing. TASS reports a Ukrainian UAV dropped a munition on the parking lot near the Zaporizhzhia NPP, damaging 7 civilian vehicles, but the station is operating normally and security is not compromised. Mash na Donbasse posts photos confirming a Ukrainian UAV dropped a munition near Zaporizhzhia NPP. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports RSZO strikes on Energodar, advising citizens to take shelter. UAF General Staff reports airstrikes at Zaliznychne of Zaporizhzhia region. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Stepnohirsk. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports fields are partially mined and occupied, with only 370k hectares harvested vs 2M previously. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports air raid cleared, but missile threat remains. Kotsnews reports Russian army approached Stepnohirsk. Colonelcassad reports strike on UAF temporary deployment point (ПВД) on Khortytsia Island using Geran and Harpy loitering munitions. TASS reports 1 killed, 2 injured in Energodar due to UAF artillery shelling. Two Majors video message depicts a vehicle equipped with a missile launcher and soldiers preparing for launch, captioned "Запорожский фронт". DeepState reports enemy continues to consolidate positions in Kamyanske and conduct assault operations towards Stepnohirsk. STERNENKO posts video showing increased RF activity on Zaporizhzhia direction. Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 posts a video of two Ukrainian soldiers from the 7th Division, Zaporizhzhia, appealing for donations for aerial reconnaissance drones and Starlink, citing inability to fight effectively without them. Starlink communications in the region remain impacted. MoD Russia releases drone footage of Vostok Group UAV teams destroying two AFU dugouts in Zaporizhzhia region. "Two Majors" posts a video from Zaporizhzhia front showing a soldier, masked, discussing the importance of drones for survival and threat identification, stating that drone warfare is becoming dominant. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports support for veterans as a key priority. Two fatalities in Primorske, Vasylivskyi district, due to an RF FPV drone attack. ASTRA confirms two fatalities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast from an RF FPV drone attack. Kadyrov_95 posts drone footage showing multiple explosions in a wooded/trenched area, with personnel targeted, implying engagement in the Orikhiv/Rabotino direction. Colonelcassad reports a ZALA Lancet drone destroyed a Czech DANA self-propelled howitzer in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Air raid alert declared in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF milblogger Voenkor Kotenok posts two photo messages captioned "Zaporozhye direction," showing battlefield conditions; no new tactical information. UAF Air Force reports ballistic missile threat from the south. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports ballistic missiles on Dnipro/Samar (3 missiles). RBK-Ukraina reports AD is active in Zaporizhzhia. UAF Air Force reports UAVs heading to Zaporizhzhia. RBK-Ukraina reports several fires recorded in Zaporizhzhia district. UAF Air Force reports ballistic missile threat from the east. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a new alert. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports the air raid alert has been cleared. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Kryvyi Rih: Situation assessed as controlled. Oleksandr Vilkul shares photos from an educational facility and road construction, and of children of servicemen attending a summer camp. Oleksandr Vilkul reports 78km of heat pipelines being replaced and other infrastructure projects. Oleksandr Vilkul provides a briefing summary, confirming continued infrastructure work on heat networks (78km restored, 15km insulation, 3 modular boiler houses for residential buildings, 5 for hospitals, 3 cogeneration units) and operations of a communal children's summer camp for 1000 children of military personnel (focus on families of deceased, missing, or captured Heroes). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Mykolaiv Oblast: RBK-Ukraina reports "Russians attacked Mykolaiv with drones overnight." Significant fires. Dnevnik Desantnika claims RF forces "destroyed a Bayraktar UAV production facility at the Equator factory" (CONFIDENCE: LOW). SBU prevented a dual terrorist act near the regional TCC. RBK-Ukraina reports a Russian drone attacked a Norwegian humanitarian organization's base. UAF General Staff reports airstrikes at Mykolayivka of Kherson region. UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in Mykolaiv Oblast, in the southern region. RBK-Ukraina reports Mykolaiv may be without water for a day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for drone attacks/impact, SBU operation, humanitarian base attack, and water disruption).
• Sumy Oblast: UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) near Bilopillia and a reconnaissance UAV near Lebedyn, both heading southeast. UAF Air Force reports RF launches of GABs onto Sumy Oblast. Reconnaissance UAVs reported on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. UAF General Staff reports repelled 12 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky direction. Colonelcassad publishes drone footage showing strikes. Vooin DV posts video of an FPV drone strike on a Ukrainian Forces pickup truck. Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 Shahed drones flying towards Sumy. UAF Air Force reports new GAB launches onto Sumy Oblast. Operatyvny ZSU posts images of "Sumy attackers." STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast (Khotin), heading southwest. UAF Air Force reports an enemy UAV (Shahed) on the northern outskirts of Shostka. UAF Air Force reports threat of enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast from the north, currently flying south. UAF Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs near Bilopillia, heading south. New groups of enemy strike UAVs reported on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, course west/southwest. RBK-Ukraina reports a frontline community in Sumy Oblast was attacked, with one fatality near Znob-Novhorodske. "Two Majors" purports to show the 155th Separate Guards Naval Infantry Brigade operating in the Sumy direction. UAF Air Force reports new Shahed drones moving towards Sumy city from the northeast. UAF Air Force reports "Konotop! To shelter!" and fast-moving targets in Sumy region heading west. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in southern Sumy Oblast. НгП раZVедка reports "Good news from Sumy direction." Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages and text regarding a "Sumy columbarium" and "Closing of America" in Ukraine, likely propaganda. UAF Air Force reports RF launches of GABs onto Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) over Sumy city. Colonelcassad posts video of a captured Ukrainian serviceman (Chernets Vasyl Alekseevich, 22.07.1985, 156th Separate Mechanized Brigade) near Yunakivka, who states he was mobilized, feared desertion, and observed life worsening since Maidan. UAF Air Force reports UAV in the Sumy suburbs. UAF General Staff reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 25 Russian army assaults yesterday in Kursk and North Slobozhansky direction. TASS reports a UAF platoon defected from positions near Yanvarskoye (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) and attempting to illegally export weapons from Sumy Oblast to other regions (CONFIDENCE: LOW). UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that CNN claims Russia is involving teenagers (from 15 years old) and women in "Shahed" drone assembly at their factories. OPG reports investigation opened into murder of 17-year-old girl, showing local authorities are addressing internal crime. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition posts photo messages of "landscapes of the Sumy borderland" showing damaged rural areas. Colonelcassad claims a Russian armored vehicle was destroyed near Korchakivka in Sumy region. Air Force reports groups of UAVs moving past Shostka towards Konotop. Air Force reports multiple groups of UAVs moving from Sumy Oblast towards Chernihiv Oblast. Air Force reports strike UAVs moving on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, course towards Poltava Oblast. RBK-Ukraina reports Russia has launched groups of Shaheds across Ukraine. Alex Parker Returns posts photo messages of a deceased individual in Sumy Oblast, with emphasis on dental condition. This is likely RF propaganda aiming to dehumanize UAF personnel or create fear. MoD Russia releases a video showing snipers from an airborne reconnaissance unit from Buryatia, allegedly wiping out AFU infantry in the Sumy region. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts drone footage showing two military personnel, one assisting or dragging the other, in a wooded area, with a sarcastic caption about "leaving no one behind," possibly implying a Russian retreat or loss in combat, potentially in Sumy Oblast as it relates to the previous MoD Russia message. Colonelcassad posts video claiming RF forces (76th VDV Division, Rubikon pilots) detected and destroyed a camouflaged Ukrainian T-64BV tank between Nikolskoye and Mogritsa in Sumy direction. UAF Air Force reports KAABs launched on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. DeepState reports 225th Separate Assault Battalion liberated Kindrativka in Sumy Oblast, with 3 RF battalions and 1 battalion commander eliminated. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a serious success for Ukraine in Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports new groups of strike UAVs through Sumy Oblast, headed for Poltava Oblast. RBK-Ukraina confirms new drone groups moving from Sumy to Poltava Oblast. TASS reports UAF only remains on the southern outskirts of Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast, with nearly the entire settlement under RF control. UAF Air Force reports UAVs heading for Konotop. UAF Air Force reports KAABs launched on Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Kherson Oblast: RF claims aviation strike on a UAF HQ in Kherson. GAB launch on Kherson from Temporarily Occupied Territory (TOT). STERNENKO also reports strikes on Kherson. Reconnaissance UAVs reported on Kherson Oblast. UAF General Staff reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Lvove and repelled 9 Russian army assaults. Vooin DV posts video claiming a substation explosion in Kherson. Voenkor Kotenok posts video implying capture of a "Zhdun" (collaborator/spotter). New RF milblogger video shows aerial view of an urban environment labeled "Kherson. Works group ROY," showing an explosion. Basurin o glavnom posts video of FSB detention and interrogation of a man in Krasnodar Krai for alleged collaboration and photography of military facilities, as well as a video of the detention of a "spotter" in Kherson Oblast. New videos from Colonelcassad captioned "FSB of Russia in Kherson region stopped illegal activities of a Russian citizen involved in state treason" show an individual admitting to photographing government facilities and checkpoints in Kherson. RBK-Ukraina reports a combined RF attack on Dniprovskyi district of Kherson. Two Majors posts new drone footage from Kherson. RBK-Ukraina reports RF dropped explosives from a drone on an ambulance crew in Dniprovskyi district of Kherson. UAF General Staff reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 5 Russian army assaults yesterday in Kherson direction. Colonelcassad reports a powerful impact and rising smoke in Kherson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Other Eastern Axes: UAF General Staff reports clashes near Stepova Novoselivka, Borivska Andriyivka, Holubivka, Zahryzove, Novoplatonivka (Kupyansk direction); Hrekivka, Zelenyy Hay, Serednye, Shandryholove, Dronivka, Novyy Mir, Karpivka, Kolodyazi, Shypylivka and towards Druzhelubivka, Serebryanka (Lyman direction); Hryhorivka (Siversk direction); Chasiv Yar, Stupochky and Bila Hora (Kramatorsk direction); Toretsk (Toretsk direction); Zaporizhzhya, Zirka, Piddubne, Oleksandrohrad, Shevchenko, Maliyivka, Temyrivka, Voskresenka and Vilne Pole (Novopavlivka direction). New RF milblogger photo from Kupyansk direction near Radkovka. STERNENKO reports Sky Hunters of the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade are stopping new Russian assaults on the Kupyansk direction. Z комитет + SVO Map milbloggers post a tactical map of Novopavlovskoe direction showing occupied territories. UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction. Colonelcassad posts satellite imagery of UAF engineering structures in Kramatorsk district, construction began June 2025. Rybar provides tactical maps of the Kupyansk direction, with a new video analyzing the advance towards Belaya Gora and Shcherbinovka, confirming Russian advances south of Konstantinovka and push into central Yablonevka, securing areas south of Yablonevka, and fighting in Shcherbinovka. It also indicates an assault on the eastern flank towards Kurdyumovka and Ozaryanovka, and a successful advance to the western bank of the Seversky Donets-Donbas canal. Voenkor Kotenok posts a map of Pokrovskoye (Krasnoarmeyskoye) direction. DeepState reports map updated. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday at South Slobozhansky(Kharkiv) direction near Vovchansk, Zelene, Petro-Ivanivka and Kamyanske. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Kupyansk direction near Stepova Novoselivka, Zahryzove, Kupyansk, Zelenyi Hai and towards Velyka Shapkivka. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Lyman direction near Hrekivka, Novyy Myr, Yampolivka, Torske, Serebryanka, also towards Dronivka, Shandryholove, Cherneschyna, Serednye. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Sieversk direction near Hryhorivka and Pereyizne. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Kramatorsk direction near Mykolayivka and towards Bila Hora. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Toretsk direction near Dyliyivka, Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, towards Pleschiyivka, Oleksandro-Shultyne and Katerynivka. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Novopavlivka direction near Piddubne, Maliyivka, Yalta, Voskresenka, towards Temyrivka and Oleksandrohrad. Vooin DV posts drone footage of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade destroying UAF transport, UAV control point, and artillery in the Yanvarskoye area. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports 63rd Brigade's drone unit eliminated 23 enemy personnel near Torske. Slivochniy Kapriz posts photo and video messages on Kupyansk-Tishchenkovka direction. Rybar and Two Majors post photos of the claimed liberation of Novoekonomichne, confirming RF advances. Воин DV posts video showing destruction of a 122-mm D-30 towed howitzer. Butusov Plus posts regarding RF intent to control Siversky Donets canal. Colonelcassad reports units are fighting for control over Nikanorovka and Zatyshok. Z комитет + карта СВО publishes a tactical map indicating RF control over Kolodyazi, further supporting RF claims of localized advances in the Lyman direction. Два майора claims Aleksandro-Kalinovo (Konstantinovka direction) is "ours," with drone footage showing captured soldiers, damaged buildings, and a destroyed AGS. BUTUSOV PLUS video shows UAF drone operator targeting Russian vehicle. Colonelcassad claims Russian forces significantly advanced in Serebryansky forestry and took control of a pioneer camp on Lake Linevoye (48°56′53.02′′ N 38°10′17.89′′ E), posting video of Russian assault troops raising flags. Slivochniy Kapriz posts video on the Seversk axis, showing drone footage of a military vehicle, possibly a tank, being engaged and burning in a forested area, suggesting a successful strike. Z комитет + карта СВО posts an image of a Russian soldier with "5ОМСБР" (5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade) insignia, likely propaganda for the unit operating in the Donetsk sector. TASS video claims UAV operators destroyed Ukrainian ground robots near Konstantinovka and Serebryanka. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on "interesting content" regarding Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) for tomorrow's post, indicating continued RF focus on this axis. Presidential Brigade of UAF video shows drone strikes on enemy positions on the Novopavlivka direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the 128th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade "Dyke Pole" has been reformatted into the 128th Separate Heavy Mechanized Brigade. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of a Russian military pushing another soldier (possibly injured) out of a dugout, then with an automatic rifle, implying forced exposure to drone attack. Operatyvny ZSU posts an archived video showing drone operators from "Kryla Omegy" unit destroying an MT-LB, with map overlays and targeting reticles, indicating ongoing UAF drone operations. DeepState map updated. Военкор Котенок posts photos of Kupyansk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Poltava Oblast: RBK-Ukraina reports an enemy drone fell in Poltava Oblast due to air defense work. UAF Air Force reports a reconnaissance UAV on the border of Kharkiv and Poltava Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports threat of enemy strike UAVs from the northeast. UAF Air Force warns of threat to Kremenchuk and Svitlovodsk from drones. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 3 Shahed drones over Kremenchuk/Svitlovodsk and 1 from Cherkasy towards Kremenchuk. New high-speed target detected on the northeastern part of Poltava region towards Kremenchuk. Explosions reported in Kremenchuk area. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports drones near Kremenchuk are "minus." RF milblogger "НгП раZVедка" reports "Good news from Poltava Oblast," which may indicate successful RF strike activity or UAF setbacks. UAVs detected moving towards Myrhorod, Poltava, and Dykanka. UAF Air Force reports drones near Myrhorod, advising shelter. Николаевский Ванёк provides a general update on UAV activity, indicating continued drone movement across Ukraine. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports missiles on Kamyanske/Kremenchuk. UAF Air Force reports UAVs heading for Poltava. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports remaining drones. UAF Air Force reports threat of strike UAVs cleared for Poltava Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ternopil Oblast: RBK-Ukraina reports a grenade explosion in an apartment building resulting in two fatalities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russia:
  • Krasnodar Krai (Sochi/Kuban): Multiple videos show large explosions and fires near a "Lukoil-Yugnefteprodukt Sochinskaya oil depot." RF MoD claims 39 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down. Civilian reports indicate flight disruptions. TASS and ASTRA confirm casualties (2 dead, 13 injured). Peskov states these attacks are a "continuation of Kyiv's strikes on civilian objects." Krasnodar Krai Operative Headquarters reports drone attack. TASS reports that UAV debris, falling on the territory of a railway station, damaged a passenger train car, injuring two people. RBK-Ukraina reports 45 flights delayed in Sochi airport, up from 25 across 8 airports previously reported. ASTRA reports Timashevsk railway station in Krasnodar Krai without power after UAV attack, 2 train passengers injured. TASS reports a Boeing S7 flight to Sochi is returning to Novosibirsk airport. Sever.Realii reports two people injured in Krasnodar Krai due to falling drone debris on a train. TASS video confirms plane landing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Kursk Oblast: Russian official Khinshtein signed a resolution on payments to residents forced to leave homes due to property damage. STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. A woman was killed by a drone attack. UAF General Staff reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 25 Russian army assaults yesterday in Kursk direction. WarGonzo posts video from a "border region" with a masked fighter, discussing shelling. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Luhansk (Kremennaya): TASS reports a "firefight" by UAF in Kremennaya. MoD Russia posts video of military engineers ensuring transport accessibility. Colonelcassad reports Russian forces significantly advanced in Serebryansky forestry (Luhansk Oblast) and took control of a pioneer camp on Lake Linevoye (48°56′53.02′′ N 38°10′17.89′′ E), posting video of Russian assault troops raising flags. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for infrastructure repair, LOW for UAF aggressive action).
  • Rostov Oblast (Novocherkassk/Taganrog Area): RBK-Ukraina reports at least 7 explosions in the suburbs of Taganrog and Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast, with Russians complaining of unknown drone attacks and claiming AD work. New reports from ASTRA confirm residents of Novocherkassk are again reporting a large number of drones and explosions. Traffic over the Crimean Bridge has been temporarily suspended. Operatyvny ZSU posts videos confirming drone activity and explosions in Rostov Oblast. Operatyvny ZSU reports railway station building in Peschanokopskoye, Rostov Oblast, damaged by UAV strike. TASS reports damage to contact network at a Rostov region station due to UAV debris, causing train delays. ASTRA confirms damage to Peschanokopskaya station in Rostov Oblast after UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Amur Oblast: A civilian An-24 passenger plane with 43 passengers and 6 crew members went missing, crash site found 16km from Tynda, fuselage burning, no survivors. TASS reports technical malfunction and human factor as versions, then later states the An-24 was technically sound. Five railway workers among the dead. TASS reports 13 residents of Khabarovsk Krai died in the crash. Photo messages from "Полиция Хабаровского края" showing police vehicles, likely related to the ongoing investigation or response to the An-24 crash aftermath. Amur Oblast Governor Vasily Orlov has flown to Tynda with a government commission to assess the situation. TASS reports over 200 people working at An-24 crash site in Tynda. TASS reports flags lowered in Khabarovsk in mourning. TASS reports the An-24 crash debris field covers 1 hectare. TASS reports Amur Oblast authorities will pay 1 million rubles to families of deceased residents from the An-24 crash. ASTRA posts video about the 1 million ruble payout to families of An-24 crash victims in Amur Oblast. TASS reports the Cabinet of Ministers will pay 5 million rubles to families of deceased in the An-24 crash and that flight recorders have been found and will be transported to Moscow. TASS reports Rosaviatsia and Rostransnadzor will initiate a check of Angara Airlines following the An-24 crash. TASS reports that the flight recorders of the crashed An-24 are damaged but likely suitable for decoding. TASS reports the Amur Oblast Governor states the An-24 crash causes could be technical malfunction or pilot error. TASS reports bodies of An-24 crash victims removed from wreckage. ASTRA posts video of volunteers at crash site expressing fear. ASTRA posts photo of a track vehicle at crash site. ASTRA reports two foreign citizens (Belarus and China) were among the dead in the An-24 crash, according to the RF MFA. TASS reports the An-24 flight recorders have been delivered to Moscow, and decoding will begin shortly. The Khabarovsk Krai Police posted a video regarding online security, which is unrelated to the crash but indicates a general public awareness campaign. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Rostov Oblast (Novoshakhtinsk): Operatyvny ZSU posts video of a burning shopping center. A firefighter died, and a woman's body was found in the fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Nevinnomyssk (Stavropol Krai, North Caucasus): НгП раZVедка reports Nevinnomyssk is reflecting the most massive attack on the North Caucasus during the entire SVO. ASTRA confirms explosions in Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol Krai. RBK-Ukraina video shows a distant explosion. НгП раZVедка praises Nevinnomyssk AD. RBK-Ukraina reports the mayor of Nevinnomyssk claims 37 drone impacts with no losses or damage. ASTRA posts video showing alleged attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot industrial plant in Stavropol Krai, with sound of explosions and visual of bright flashes and smoke. RBK-Ukraina posts video showing alleged attack on a chemical plant in Stavropol Krai, also with fire/explosions and smoke visible. ASTRA posts video of Nevinnomyssk mayor claiming "37 hits, no losses, no destruction in the city, the factory workers are great." TASS reports 37 UAVs shot down over Nevinnomyssk, no casualties. STERNENKO posts video of drone attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant, mayor claims "over 20 hits". Шеф Hayabusa posts video of the strike. ASTRA reports roads near the chemical plant in Nevinnomyssk are closed after UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for claimed attack and visual evidence of explosions/fire, MEDIUM for number of impacts without damage as claimed by mayor; HIGH for industrial target).
  • Internal RF Issues: RF Investigation Committee reports completion of an investigation into the supply of low-quality dry rations. FSB detained 9 Russians in 8 regions for calling for military assassinations. A police officer detained in Kherson Oblast for transmitting RF troop data to Ukrainian special services. Former Tambov Oblast Governor Maxim Egorov detained for bribery. Vice-Governor of Bryansk Oblast is facing arrest for abuse of power in defensive line construction. TASS reports a decision is prepared to ban gasoline exports for 1-2 months from August 1st. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki reports court denied compensation to family of deceased soldier sent to front with injury. TASS reports investigators seeking arrest of three Interior Ministry employees accused of receiving bribes from Baza Telegram channel journalists and exceeding official authority. TASS confirms arrest of Baza editor-in-chief Gleb Trifonov. TASS reports the Moscow court arrested Aleksandr Bogashov and Eldar Belousov (Minister of Property of Chelyabinsk Oblast), and Menzhinsky (acting Head of Affairs of the Governor and Government of Chelyabinsk Oblast) on charges of abuse of power. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki reports a military police officer beat an elderly serviceman. TASS reports GAZ will transition to a four-day work week in August due to a "critical fall in the car market." TASS reports the apartment and car of an accomplice in the "Crocus" terrorist attack have been seized. Colonelcassad claims the Russian Investigative Committee has identified over 3,500 foreign mercenaries from 70 countries fighting for Ukraine. TASS reports Russian Railways (RZD) has redirected cargo traffic to alternative routes after incidents in Rostov Oblast. TASS reports that the perpetrators of the Crocus terrorist attack have been recognized as sane. RF officials in Lipetsk Oblast have declared a "red" level drone attack threat. TASS reports Bastrykin congratulated investigation authorities on their professional holiday. ASTRA reports "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) implemented in North Ossetia and other SKFO regions due to UAV threat, citing Menyaylo. TASS reports blogger Yuri Dud, declared internationally wanted, may be checked for treason. Operation Z reports FSB has a new series "Spetsy" portraying heroic work of FSB special forces. TASS reports new suspects may emerge in the case of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, accused of abuse of power. TASS reports that the Cabinet of Ministers is considering differentiating the preferential mortgage rate. WarGonzo features a speaker at a media summit discussing post-SMO reintegration and support. TASS reports Khusnullin believes key rate could be lowered to 10-12% by year-end. ASTRA reports "18+" goods will be sold on marketplaces via biometrics, indicating new internal control measures within RF. TASS reports Crocus terrorists used drugs to dull fear. Rybar reports Mikhail Gusman dismissed. Two Majors photo message from Chelyabinsk Oblast shows RC airplane, potentially related to local drone efforts. TASS reports a man was detained in Cherepovets who sold data on 27,000+ Russian citizens to Ukrainian call centers. FSB reports detention of co-conspirators of Ukrainian call centers in 4 regions. TASS posts video messages claiming FSB and МВД detained co-conspirators of Ukrainian call centers in 4 RF regions, with video showing raids and confiscated items (firearms, cash, phones, credit cards). Two Majors posts the same video message regarding FSB/MVD detentions of call center co-conspirators. TASS reports the defense of Baza editor-in-chief Trifonov has appealed his arrest. Старше Эдды posts an image suggesting commercial directors are among the highest paid professions in Russia in 2025, with an average salary of 292,370 rubles/month. Sever.Realii reports increased sales of anti-alcoholism drugs in Russia. TASS reports Kia recalling almost 80,000 Sportage crossovers in Russia due to defect. Moscow News reports a proposal in State Duma to pay parents of schoolchildren before September 1st. TASS reports Mars ceased production of Dove and Korkunov chocolate bars in Russia from January 1, 2025. TASS reports a blast occurred in an apartment building in Saratov, injuring at least one person and possibly killing three. ASTRA confirms the explosion in Saratov. Alex Parker Returns posts video about the Saratov explosion aftermath. TASS reports 3 fatalities, including a child, in the Saratov gas explosion. STERNENKO claims the Saratov explosion was an FSB-orchestrated event (CONFIDENCE: LOW). ASTRA confirms child fatality in Saratov. TASS confirms continued threat of collapse in Saratov building. TASS reports evacuation of Saratov residents. TASS reports a criminal case has been opened into the Saratov explosion. TASS confirms over 20 specialists, K9 units, and 8 vehicles are working at the Saratov explosion site. TASS reports flags lowered in Khabarovsk in mourning. TASS reports Amur Oblast authorities will pay 1 million rubles to families of deceased residents from the An-24 crash. ASTRA posts video about the 1 million ruble payout to families of An-24 crash victims in Amur Oblast. TASS reports the Cabinet of Ministers will pay 5 million rubles to families of deceased in the An-24 crash and that flight recorders have been found and will be transported to Moscow. TASS reports Rosaviatsia and Rostransnadzor will initiate a check of Angara Airlines following the An-24 crash. TASS reports that the flight recorders of the crashed An-24 are damaged but likely suitable for decoding. TASS reports the Amur Oblast Governor states the An-24 crash causes could be technical malfunction or pilot error. TASS reports bodies of An-24 crash victims removed from wreckage. ASTRA posts video of volunteers at crash site expressing fear. ASTRA posts photo of a track vehicle at crash site. ASTRA reports two foreign citizens (Belarus and China) were among the dead in the An-24 crash, according to the RF MFA. TASS reports the An-24 flight recorders have been delivered to Moscow, and decoding will begin shortly. TASS reports Politologist Ekaterina Shulman (recognized as a foreign agent in the Russian Federation) has been заочно arrested in a case regarding evasion of foreign agent duties. TASS reports the Military Court will consider the appeal against the verdict of General Ivan Popov in closed session. TASS reports Putin appointed Georgy Mikhno as new RF Ambassador to Poland. Zvizdets Mangustu reports Russia pays more for food imports than it gets for food exports. TASS reports Central Bank of Russia lowered key rate to 18%. Moscow News confirms Central Bank lowering key rate to 18%. TASS lowered forecast for average key rate by year-end to 18.8-19.6%. ASTRA confirms Central Bank lowered key rate from 20% to 18%. Khabarovsk Krai Police report real responsibility for "virtual jokes," likely related to online dissent. TASS reports individual sentenced to 17 years for preparing terror attack in Maykop temple. TASS reports the Moscow court arrested the former head of Chernomorneftegaz, Sergey Beem, and the general director of Aurora, Pyatkova, on charges of particularly large-scale fraud. ASTRA reports the cancellation of the main naval parade in St. Petersburg. ASTRA reports a video showing a drunk military personnel trying to choke a child and then attacking passersby with a knife in Rostov. Sever.Realii reports that the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier may be scrapped. Fighterbomber claims discussions are underway regarding scrapping the Admiral Kuznetsov. TASS reports that the Moscow City Court will on July 29 verify the legality of the verdict against Blinovskaya, sentenced to 5 years for tax evasion and money laundering, indicating continued internal anti-corruption/law enforcement efforts. TASS reports that a court has satisfied a lawsuit to seize 821 real estate objects belonging to the family of former Vladivostok Mayor Nikolaev, confirming ongoing anti-corruption efforts within RF. TASS reports former Deputy Governor of Bryansk Oblast Tatyana Kuleshova has been sentenced to 9 years in a penal colony for 9 years for large-scale bribe. TASS reports the sixth fatality from the Saratov building collapse. RF Minister of Emergency Situations Aleksandr Kurenkov has arrived in Saratov. TASS reports a statement about Microsoft Russia bankruptcy. TASS reports number of injured in Saratov gas explosion increased to 9. Kotsnews reports on a civilian stabbing incident in Yevpatoria, Crimea, that led to a fatality and claims the perpetrator was linked to Wahhabism. Rybar posts a video message about alleged ethnic crime and labor exploitation in Kuzbass, specifically mentioning Tajiks and Uzbeks, and the organization 'Bozkurt'. TASS reports that the law on fines for searching extremist materials will not affect most Russians, according to Fadeyev. Ministry of Industry and Trade (Minpromtorg) states Russians are effectively reorienting towards domestic products and goods from friendly countries, implying economic resilience. НгП раZVедка reports on discussions regarding criminal prosecution of children/teenagers, likely related to participation in "movements" or minor offenses, indicating a potential tightening of internal security for youth. Sever.Realii reports the founder of iGooods food delivery service was arrested for "financing extremism." ASTRA photo messages confirm Former Tambov Oblast Governor Maxim Egorov was sent to pre-trial detention for a large-scale bribe. TASS confirms the court sent former Tambov Governor to custody for an 84M ruble bribe. WarGonzo video displays military-themed artwork, possibly produced by or for military personnel, indicating a cultural/propaganda element. Colonelcassad posts videos showing the FSB detaining and escorting an individual into the Tver Garrison Military Court, where the pixelated individual speaks of fighting against the "Third Reich" and the "special military operation" in Ukraine. This is part of an ongoing RF information operation claiming Ukrainian collaboration with Nazism. Alex Parker Returns reports that Major General Popov has been stripped of his rank, while General Sukhrab Akhmedov has been awarded "Hero of Russia" for "unsuccessful meat assaults." This indicates internal discontent within RF military circles and is likely used for critical commentary. TASS reports the UN is concerned about Ukraine withdrawing from the anti-personnel mine convention. Fighterbomber provides a generic text message about "what they will write," implying future news, with no specific military intelligence. ASTRA reports a Moscow court sent an alleged FSB owner of Solaris service and a former MoD employee to pre-trial detention for creating a "probiya" (data breach) service. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows an altercation in Rostov, potentially involving a military person and civilians, highlighting internal RF issues. Rybar provides an "итоги" (results/summary) for July 25, which is a routine daily summary from a prominent RF milblogger. MoD Russia publishes a photo message with the hashtag "#Figure", depicting a soldier, likely for morale or recruitment purposes. Старше Эдды is interested in who will be the first to complain that "Russian fascism is raising its head." TASS publishes a photo message of Viktor Medvedchuk, promoting the claim that "Default in Ukraine has occurred, and it can no longer be denied." This is a clear RF information operation. TASS reports that Ghislaine Maxwell has provided the US Department of Justice with information on 100 individuals linked to Epstein. НгП раZVедка posts photo message "They will also answer for everything now." TASS reports the military court placed the son of Bryansk Oblast ex-deputy governor Petrochenko under arrest for a bribery case. Operation Z reports that "military bloggers of the Russian Spring" have made serious accusations against military blogger Roman Alekhin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Tambov Oblast: Operatyvny ZSU posts videos of "cotton" (explosions/fires) in the area of the Tambov Powder Plant after today's UAV attack. ASTRA reports UAVs attacked the Tambov Powder Plant, citing local sources. TASS reports three people died in a car crash in Tambov after a vehicle hit pedestrians. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF Airports: TASS reports flight restrictions at Vladikavkaz, Grozny, Magas, Mineralnye Vody, Nalchik, Stavropol, Sochi, and Tambov airports have been lifted. TASS reports a Novosibirsk-Sochi flight returned due to depressurization after takeoff. New temporary flight restrictions have been introduced at Vladikavkaz and Grozny airports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Moscow Oblast: Moscow Region expects fog with visibility 100-500 meters. Moscow has reduced the list of permitted swimming areas to four, likely due to water quality concerns. TASS reports Sphera educational platform to integrate into Max messenger by September 2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Bryansk Oblast: AV БогомаZ reports 25 enemy UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Saratov Oblast: TASS reports an explosion occurred in the stairwell of a 10-story apartment building in Saratov. ASTRA reports media are reporting at least one fatality in Saratov. TASS reports three people are tentatively dead in Saratov from a gas explosion and collapse in a residential building. TASS reports over 30 apartments may be damaged or destroyed in Saratov. Alex Parker Returns posts video showing the moment of explosion and aftermath. ASTRA posts video showing smoke and fire from a Saratov apartment building. Operatyvny ZSU posts video of Saratov explosion aftermath. TASS reports the epicenter of the explosion in Saratov was on the 9th floor. TASS posts photo and video of the aftermath. TASS reports Saratov Governor confirmed risks of further building collapse and that debris will be cleared today, assessment tomorrow. ASTRA reports gas leak as preliminary cause of Saratov explosion. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights posts video of Saratov explosion, confirms gas explosion. TASS reports one person may remain under Saratov rubble. TASS confirms people may be under rubble in Saratov. TASS reports 5 people evacuated from Saratov apartment building, unharmed. TASS reports epicenter of Saratov explosion at 8th floor. TASS reports blast wave damaged glazing of neighboring building in Saratov. ASTRA posts video of the Saratov explosion with civilians and a child in frame. TASS reports the number of dead in Saratov gas explosion increased to four. TASS reports rescuers found a living man under the rubble in Saratov. TASS reports Saratov operative services cite faulty gas equipment or improper use as cause of explosion. Alex Parker Returns posts video claiming residents complained about gas pipes hours before explosion. ASTRA reports seven injured in Saratov apartment collapse. TASS provides a video of the moment of explosion in the Saratov residential building, confirming the incident and its scale. TASS reports the fifth body has been recovered from Saratov rubble. TASS reports the sixth fatality from the Saratov building collapse, initially showing signs of life. RF Minister of Emergency Situations Alexander Kurenkov has arrived on site. TASS reports the number of injured in Saratov gas explosion increased to 9. TASS reports 10 injured in Saratov. Ministry of Economic Development stated the decision of the Central Bank to lower the rate was expected. TASS reports 15 people sought medical attention after the Saratov explosion, with all treated ambulatorily. ASTRA photo messages show the scene of the Saratov gas explosion, confirming damage to a residential building. A day of mourning declared in Saratov Oblast on July 26 for the gas explosion. TASS confirms the day of mourning. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos showing the aftermath of the Saratov explosion, including an MChS representative confirming 3 fatalities and evacuation efforts, and another video showing the moment of explosion. TASS reports medical assistance was needed for 16 people after the explosion in Saratov. TASS reports the fate of 4 people is unknown after the Saratov explosion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Cambodia-Thailand Border: Operation Z reports "fierce clashes." TASS confirms MLRS strikes by Cambodian forces in Surin province, Thailand, and Thailand responded with an airstrike. Alex Parker Returns reports 11 civilians killed. RBK-Ukraina reports Cambodia has called on Thailand to cease hostilities. Alex Parker Returns posts video claiming Cambodia is actively using Czech RM-70 Vampir MLRS against Thailand. TASS reports the UN Security Council will hold a meeting on July 25 regarding the escalation between Cambodia and Thailand. TASS reports 14 civilians and 1 serviceman killed, 46 injured in Thailand. Operatyvny ZSU posts multiple videos confirming border conflict. WarGonzo posts photos stating the border conflict "may escalate into war." Rybar posts video of combat footage. Alex Parker Returns and Colonelcassad report Thailand imposed martial law in 8 provinces bordering Cambodia. RBK-Ukraina provides a photo message summarizing the conflict with thousands evacuated and dozens of casualties. Rybar notes a separate channel for monitoring the conflict. Colonelcassad posts new photo messages regarding the Thailand-Cambodia conflict, including images of an F-16 Thai Air Force, M60A3 Thai Army, Mi-17 Cambodian Air Force, and Type 59 Cambodian Army. TASS reports Cambodia rejects accusations of attacking Thailand and calls for peace. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Cyprus: TASS reports uncontained wildfires and two deaths. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Kazakhstan (Aqtobe): ASTRA reports on an Azerbaijani publication identifying three military personnel allegedly involved in downing an AZAL plane near Aktau. TASS reports military helicopter missing in Almaty region. Two Majors posts a video showing two individuals in military attire, one with a Kazakh flag, in front of an armored truck with a Ukrainian flag on the right. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Lithuania: Vooin DV reports Lithuanian Armed Forces Commander stated the country has prepared infrastructure for additional US and NATO troops. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Red Sea: Colonelcassad reports UKMTO received a distress signal regarding a vessel seizure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Syria: Rybar notes a "request from Damascus." Colonelcassad posts multiple videos of alleged ethnic cleansing in Es-Suwayda province, Syria. The videos show nighttime confrontations, a masked individual smashing a storefront, and military personnel apprehending civilians with sounds of gunfire and "Allahu Akbar." RBK-Ukraina reports French court canceled arrest warrant for former Syrian President Assad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Black Sea Region: Rybar reports a "massive UAV raid." Arkhangel Spetsnaza refers to "resumption of attacks in the Black Sea." Putin states that plans to create modern naval forces will be fully implemented. Kotsnews posts video of "Iulyasky Shtorm" naval exercise involving Northern, Pacific, Baltic Fleets and Caspian Flotilla, demonstrating fleet changes. TASS posts video claiming TOF forces during "July Storm" exercises conducted a missile strike on targets in the Sea of Japan, showing naval vessels and ground-based missile systems. MoD Russia posts video of "July Storm" exercises, showing naval vessels, missile launches and submarine operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad claims NATO "practiced a strike on Crimea" (CONFIDENCE: LOW). The image shared by Colonelcassad attributes F-15s to the Belgian Air Force, which is incorrect (Belgium operates F-16s), undermining the credibility of the claim. (CONFIDENCE: LOW for content, HIGH for propaganda intent).
  • Kyiv: SBU prevented a terrorist attack in a cafe in central Kyiv, apprehending a female suspect. Air raid alert announced and cleared. Israeli early warning system for air threats became operational last night. KMVA reports a meeting with International Monetary Fund representatives. Protests under the Franko Theater against law №12414 regarding NABU continue for a third day. Operation Z posts video of protests in Kyiv demanding resignation of Zelenskyy and Yermak. Kyiv has introduced restrictions on cargo movement due to heat. SBU detained former Head of Kyiv City State Administration department Svitliy, suspected of embezzling funds for seriously ill. Office of the Prosecutor General reported suspicion to two heads of Lviv district administrations for embezzling 1.7M UAH during missile attack liquidation. Air raid alert declared due to MiG-31K launch, subsequently cleared. Zelenskiy / Official and KMVA posts videos of Zelenskyy visiting rehabilitation centers. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a young girl in Kyiv is recovering after a heart transplant during the July 10 missile attack, highlighting the continued civilian impact and resilience. Operatyvny ZSU posts video of a large protest in Kyiv, chanting "Corruption kills," against law №12414 regarding NABU and SAP. UAF Air Force reports Shaheds from Chernihiv Oblast moving towards Kyiv Oblast. RBK-Ukraina reports enemy drones in Kyiv Oblast, AD active. KMVA reports an air alarm in Kyiv. UAF Air Force reports a UAV in the Yahotyn area, Kyiv Oblast. KMVA reports air alarm cleared. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Estonia: RBK-Ukraina reports Estonia is sounding the alarm about Russia moving EW systems closer to NATO. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • New Tactical Development - Lancet Intercept: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet loitering munition. Два майора posts a video analyzing Ukrainian claims. Шеф Hayabusa posts video of intercept. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - visually plausible and multiple sources).
  • New RF Naval Commissioning: MoD Russia posts video of Putin participating in a ceremony for raising the naval ensign on the 'Knyaz Pozharsky' nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF Information Operation - "Satanists in AFU": Colonelcassad posts video and multiple photos, including ritualistic items and a pentagram tapestry, with the caption "Satanists in the AFU. Nothing new." Операция Z disseminates "Военкоры Русской Весны" content claiming Russia banned "Satanist-Nazis" with accompanying images and videos of occult-like objects. Basurin o glavnom publishes a video and photos of this alleged discovery. Basurin o glavnom publishes additional video and photos promoting RF propaganda about "Satanists in the AFU." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for the propaganda attempt, LOW - for factual basis). Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition releases a film "Azov* Brain-2" which compiles footage critical of Azov Regiment, including images linking them to Nazism. This is a continuation of RF's "denazification" propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for propaganda, LOW for factual basis).
  • RF Information Operation - "Chemical Weapon Use": Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video of GUR emblem with text overlays "NOW I WILL POISON WITH GAS" and "The occupiers continue to use chemical weapons." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for the GUR message, LOW for independent verification).
  • New US Aid Package to Ukraine: RBK-Ukraina and Operatyvny ZSU report US approval of a new military package for Ukraine worth $330 million, including air defense (PPO) and self-propelled artillery units (SAU). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports the US approval. Operatyvny ZSU reports the first Patriot battery and missiles from Germany have arrived in Ukraine. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the arrival of a Patriot system and interceptor missiles from Germany. RBK-Ukraina reports Patriot system and additional missiles have arrived in Ukraine. Kotsnews posts photos confirming Germany transferred a Patriot system to Ukraine. Воин DV also confirms the arrival of the first Patriot system to Ukraine from NATO countries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Starlink Outage: Operatyvny ZSU reports that Elon Musk stated Starlink operations will be restored soon. Confirmed Starlink outage affecting communication along the entire front line. Operation Z reports the global Starlink outage was largely resolved within 2.5 hours and was related to software issues, according to SpaceX VP Michael Nichols. Rybar posts photo message about Starlink outage. Operatyvny ZSU reports Elon Musk ordered Starlink shutdown during 2022 counteroffensives. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Elon Musk ordered Starlink shutdown during the 2022 Ukrainian counteroffensive, according to Reuters. TASS reports, citing Reuters, that Elon Musk ordered Starlink shutdown in Ukraine in late September 2022, allegedly disrupting Kyiv's counteroffensive. Voenkor Kotenok reports Western media are amplifying claims that Elon Musk "disrupted the AFU counteroffensive" in autumn 2022 by shutting down Starlink coverage near Kherson. This is likely part of the ongoing information warfare by RF. Colonelcassad posts photo messages linking the Starlink outage to network-centric warfare and its painful impact on the front, supporting the narrative of operational disruption. Operation Z also publishes an image message with the Reuters headline implying the Starlink shutdown "disrupted the AFU counteroffensive." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Israel-Palestine Recognition: Israel condemns France's decision to recognize Palestine as a state, viewing it as "a reward for terror" and a threat to its existence, according to Netanyahu. RBK-Ukraina reports Rubio did not support Macron regarding his plans to recognize Palestine as a state. Operation Z posts information regarding the split in the West due to US/Israel criticism of France for recognizing Palestine. TASS posts photo messages of Keir Starmer stating the UK might recognize a Palestinian state after a ceasefire in Gaza. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ukraine Internal Political/Security: RBK-Ukraina reports that Yaroslav Rushchyshyn, a People's Deputy from Lviv, died in a car accident. RBK-Ukraina photo messages show reactions from "Holos" faction deputies. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos showing public protests against the NABU/SAP reform bill. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video of President Zelenskyy stating that everyone with access to state secrets, including in NABU, SAP, DBR, and National Police, must undergo lie detector tests. Office of the Prosecutor General reported suspicion to two heads of Lviv district administrations for embezzling 1.7M UAH during missile attack liquidation. Air raid alert declared due to MiG-31K launch, subsequently cleared. Zelenskiy / Official and KMVA posts videos of Zelenskyy visiting rehabilitation centers. RBK-Ukraina reports Turkey's President Erdogan will offer Putin and Trump a meeting in Istanbul to discuss the war in Ukraine, highlighting ongoing diplomatic efforts for a resolution. Operatyvny ZSU reports the EU Commission speaker, Guillaume Mercier, stated that the fourth tranche of financial aid to Ukraine will be smaller than planned because Ukraine failed to implement 3 of 16 promised reforms. Office of the Prosecutor General reports a scheme involving a female official from Stryi RDL and her husband, resulting in over 2 million UAH in losses on the "Municipal Nanny" state program. STERNENKO reports Odesa mayor Trukhanov fined 4.8 million UAH for illegal gambling advertising. RBK-Ukraina reports the first fine for illegal casino advertising on Telegram. Anna Skorokhod claims Ukrainian authorities are preparing a criminal case against Kyiv Mayor Klitschko. Colonelcassad confirms Anna Skorokhod's claim. Alex Parker Returns posts a propaganda photo claiming a Ukrainian collaborator (Alexey Gerasimov) attempted to join UAF, was imprisoned, and then exchanged back to Russia and now faces treason charges. RBK-Ukraina publishes a video discussing whether the NABU law scandal will affect Zelenskyy's ratings, with an expert stating protests do not pose an immediate threat but indicate underlying sentiments. Operatyvny ZSU reports a computer science teacher in Chernivtsi engaged in fake school/kindergarten mining threats to switch to distance learning. Alex Parker Returns posts video claiming Bezuhlaya was spat on with gum during a protest, implying public dissatisfaction. Alex Parker Returns posts video alleging SBU officers beating a young anti-corruption activist, suggesting internal conflicts within Ukrainian law enforcement/security structures. TASS reports a rally in Kharkiv against Zelenskyy's alleged oppression of anti-corruption agencies. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that SBU operation, stating that a TCC (military recruitment center) saboteur received 15 years in prison, likely referring to an individual who attempted to disrupt mobilization efforts. The visuals show SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) and Counterintelligence personnel. Operatyvny ZSU reports that President Zelenskyy conducted a Staff meeting, reviewing intelligence reports from SVR and GUR on RF intentions for summer-autumn and discussing response measures. KMVA also confirms Zelenskyy's Staff meeting with intelligence reports. G7 ambassadors welcome Zelenskyy's commitment to restore NABU independence. Operatyvny ZSU publishes hacked documents from a multi-layer special operation (OpsHackRussia'sDay - OHRD). RBK-Ukraina posts photos of Ukrainian Minister of Defense and his deputies. The captions are blank except for one indicating the Minister and his team. This indicates changes within the MoD leadership, relevant for future planning and external relations. RBK-Ukraina confirms Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk's return as First Deputy Minister of Defense. Operation Z claims Zelenskyy "spat on USA" by signing a law to "subordinate" NABU, this is RF propaganda. RBK-Ukraina politologist discussing the importance of negotiations in Istanbul is indicative of the continued diplomatic efforts for resolution. STERNENKO posts several photo messages confirming the appointment of Ivan Havryliuk as the First Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine, noting his systemic approach and understanding of war mathematics. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video contrasting shopping in Donetsk before and after "Banderites," which is a propaganda piece suggesting a decline in quality of life due to the conflict, framing it against a Ukrainian nationalist term. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video alleges police provoked a fight with an invalid's son to send him to the SVO, indicating domestic mobilization issues in RF. General Staff of UAF posts a photo message related to a meeting of the Stavka of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief with General Syrsky present, confirming high-level military leadership engagement. RBK-Ukraina publishes a photo message of General Syrsky stating "Russia pays the maximum price for its summer offensive." TASS reports that the Rada may postpone voting on the NABU bill introduced by Zelenskyy due to protests and a demarche by deputies, citing Financial Times. BUTUSOV PLUS provides multiple photo messages captioned "Lviv. 12 warriors of the Royal Brigade - on the shield," indicating combat losses. TASS publishes photo messages of Viktor Medvedchuk claiming that the West will not replace Zelenskyy, otherwise he "will betray everyone." News of Moscow reports that Russia and Ukraine have "reached an agreement in principle" for a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russia Internal Security: Igor Artamonov (presumably an official) issues a warning about a UAV attack threat in Yelets and Yelets district. TASS reports that a "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) has been introduced in North Ossetia and other regions of the Caucasus Federal District. TASS reports temporary flight restrictions introduced in airports of Vladikavkaz, Grozny, Magas, Mineralnye Vody, Nalchik, Stavropol, Sochi, and Tambov. TASS reports Moscow court arrested businessman Moshkovich's bank accounts (approx. 3 billion rubles). FSB reports detention of co-conspirators of Ukrainian call centers in 4 regions. TASS reports a man detained in Cherepovets who sold data on 27,000+ Russian citizens to Ukrainian call centers. TASS reports 20 people arrested in Russia on a remote fraud case, with FSB claiming they were supervised by Ukrainian call centers. Sever.Realii reports 20 people arrested in Russia for remote fraud, FSB claims they were overseen by Ukrainian call centers. TASS reports Federation Council approved law on prosecutor's right to suspend monetary operations. ASTRA reports Federation Council approved law banning films discrediting traditional Russian values. Khabarovsk Krai Police report real responsibility for "virtual jokes," likely related to online dissent. TASS reports individual sentenced to 17 years for preparing terror attack in Maykop temple. Putin increased the maximum штатная численность (staffing level) of the central apparatus of the RF Ministry of Internal Affairs to 7,110 people. Putin simplified the possibility for Moldovan citizens who previously had not regulated their legal status in the Russian Federation to return to Russia. Putin allowed Moldovan citizens to work in the Russian Federation until October 2026 without a patent, provided they undergo fingerprinting and medical examination. MVD Germany has confirmed the suspension of humanitarian visas for Russians and Belarusians, signaling a tightening of international travel restrictions for RF citizens. ASTRA reports a Russian activist living in Armenia cannot leave the country due to an extradition request, indicating internal security challenges and international cooperation issues. TASS reports Dmitry Kolezev, journalist and blogger, added to list of terrorists and extremists. Moscow News reports Sberbank reducing rates on mortgages and consumer loans. TASS reports Sberbank reducing mortgage rates by 2% and consumer loans by 1-2%. TASS reports deputy head of Khimki municipality, Irina Zhdankina, placed under house arrest for large-scale bribery. Kotsnews reports on a civilian stabbing incident in Yevpatoria, Crimea, that led to a fatality and claims the perpetrator was linked to Wahhabism. Rybar posts a video message about alleged ethnic crime and labor exploitation in Kuzbass, specifically mentioning Tajiks and Uzbeks, and the organization 'Bozkurt'. TASS reports that the law on fines for searching extremist materials will not affect most Russians, according to Fadeyev. ASTRA reports a Perm activist, Viktor Gulin, held a solo picket with a "Putin, go away!" poster, indicating continued but suppressed internal dissent. ASTRA reports a court in St. Petersburg remanded the founder of iGooods food delivery service into custody in a case related to donations to the FBK (Anti-Corruption Foundation), suggesting continued targeting of opposition figures. Arkhangel Spetsnaza posts a warning about a scammer impersonating their admin for advertising, indicating internal issues within Russian milblogger community, possibly fraud. Kotsnews posts a message about "Evening Bell" which is not militarily relevant. ASTRA reports residents of Voronezh will be notified of drone attack threats via water vending machines. Operatyvny ZSU published new "sensational documents" from the OpsHackRussia'sDay (OHRD) operation, indicating ongoing cyber operations by UAF against RF targets. Operation Z posts a photo message claiming 70 members of Zelenskyy's party are hesitant to vote on the NABU law due to fear of retribution, a clear RF information operation aimed at sowing discord in Ukraine's political leadership and undermining anti-corruption efforts. Igor Artamonov reports a "yellow level" drone alert for Lipetsk Oblast. TASS reports a proposal in the Public Chamber to limit alcohol sales to one store per 5,000 residents. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Iran Nuclear Program: WSJ reports Iran decided to resume cooperation with IAEA on its nuclear program. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • US Foreign Aid: RBK-Ukraina reports Trump signed a law canceling $9 billion in foreign aid and public broadcasting. Operation Z reports Trump again allowed for large-scale secondary sanctions against Russia and wants nuclear arms talks with Moscow. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports US to transfer $180M in AD and related equipment. RBK-Ukraina reports Trump did not rule out secondary sanctions against Russia. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Trump did not rule out secondary sanctions against Russia within 50 days. TASS reports the head of the American Arms Control Association, Kimball, stated that preparing a new agreement between Moscow and Washington to replace the New START treaty is in the interests of the whole world. TASS posts a photo message showing Trump, with a caption related to a non-military topic (Epstein's island). TASS reports Trump believes Obama committed a crime in the situation with the spread of false information about Russian interference in the 2016 US elections. Operation Z reports Reuters: Trump likely won't impose promised tariffs on Russian oil. This is an RF information operation aimed at sowing discord within Western alliances. TASS posts a photo message by Trump claiming he "doubtfully implements the threat to impose duties against Russian oil buyers." RBK-Ukraina reports Trump stated Europeans should stop mass migration, or they will no longer have Europe. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Armenia Internal Politics: TASS reports Armenian Union President Ara Abrahamyan states Pashinyan's call to seize Catholicos Garegin II's residence devalues the Armenian Apostolic Church and is a strategic mistake. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Operational Summary (RF): Два майора posts a morning summary for 25 July 2025. Рыбарь posts a chronicle of the Special Military Operation for 24 July. "Two Majors" posts an analysis regarding Rybar, indicating continued milblogger activity. Colonelcassad publishes a chronicle of strikes on Ukraine from July 24-25, 2025. Poddubny ZOV Edition posts video of Russian flag raised over Novoekonomichne. TASS reports Belousov stated RF forces confidently advancing on October direction and improving position. Voenkor Kotenok posts a photo message summarizing the main news for 25.07.2025, which is a common RF milblogger practice. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a "Day Summary" for July 25, which is a routine intelligence product from an RF milblogger, confirming ongoing operations. Rybar provides an "итоги" (results/summary) for July 25, which is a routine daily summary from a prominent RF milblogger. MoD Russia publishes a "Top News Today" photo message with a military-themed image. TASS reports a 5.0 magnitude earthquake occurred in Kamchatka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF Space Launch: TASS reports launch of Soyuz-2.1b with two heliogeophysical satellites from Vostochny Cosmodrome. Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages on "Two Ionosphere-M satellites put into orbit," confirming the launch. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Serbia: RBK-Ukraina reports Serbia named conditions for supporting sanctions against Russia. TASS reports Orban claims Ukraine continues to lose the conflict. TASS reports Serbian Prime Minister Djuro Matsut stated the current government will not impose sanctions against RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Germany: RBK-Ukraina reports Germany wants to create the strongest army in Europe, with up to 40,000 new fighters annually. RBK-Ukraina reports Ukraine will receive another IRIS-T from Germany. Operatyvny ZSU confirms Ukraine will receive an 8th IRIS-T from Germany. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms Germany is preparing to transfer another IRIS-T SLM system, reiterating continued strong support. Colonelcassad confirms Ukraine will receive TRML-4D and SPEXER 2000 3D MkIII radars from Hensoldt. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Mariupol: Mash на Донбассе posts images showing the drying up of the Starokrymske Reservoir, which supplies Mariupol with water. Mash на Донбассе video shows two individuals loading a car with paving tiles, reported as "super-economic thieves" in Mariupol, suggesting local law enforcement issues in occupied territories. Mash на Донбассе reports crowd of residents in Makeevka gathered for water. ASTRA reports a 7x reduction in water consumption standards in "DNR" for those without meters, following complaints. Videos show civilians queuing for water in Kiyravsky district, collecting murky water, and in Osepyanovka village. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Crimea: GUR cyber specialists conducted a "digital strike" against the occupation administration of Crimea, destroying all data on "government" servers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Western Aid to Ukraine: Operatyvny ZSU reports the first Patriot battery promised by Trump, along with missiles, has arrived in Ukraine, citing The Telegraph. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the arrival of a Patriot system and interceptor missiles from Germany, citing The Telegraph. RBK-Ukraina reports Patriot system and additional missiles have arrived in Ukraine, citing The Telegraph. Kotsnews posts photos confirming Germany transferred a Patriot system to Ukraine. RBK-Ukraina reports Polish Foreign Minister influenced restoration of Patriot supply. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russia Production of Missiles: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russia plans to use Austrian-made components for missiles, showing a document from TRV-engineering. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a news article indicating laser diodes from Vienna-based company were deceptively routed to Russia for missile components. Colonelcassad reports that the enemy (Ukraine) claims Russia has started using a new air-to-air missile, "Product 180" (K77M), indicating potential new RF air combat capabilities. Operation Z confirms CNN reports Russia has significantly scaled up the Shahed production plant in Alabuga. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ukraine Internal Investigations: The Office of the Prosecutor General reports that Ukrainian and Polish law enforcement liquidated a transnational drug network, seizing hundreds of kilograms of drugs. Office of the Prosecutor General reports a large-scale abuse by forestry officials in Lviv region, with damages over 42M UAH. Office of the Prosecutor General reports exposure of a scheme in Stryi RDL leading to over 2 million UAH in losses on the "Municipal Nanny" state program. Office of the Prosecutor General reports initiating a criminal investigation in Lviv Oblast, following an image of children participating in military training, for potential violations of child protection laws, indicating an internal security review. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF Military Equipment: Colonelcassad posts video of "Niva" pickups supplied to troops by MoD. Filolog v Zasade posts photos of military awards/documents. Fighterbomber claims 4 Patriot launchers and an AN/MPQ-65 radar destroyed over the past week (CONFIDENCE: LOW). Два майора posts photos and a video showcasing "Combat Nivas" – military-style light utility vehicles, possibly adapted for reconnaissance or transport, emphasizing their utility in the field. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for equipment/documents).
  • RF Presidential Statements: TASS reports Peskov casts doubt on possibility of Putin-Zelenskyy meeting before end of August. TASS reports Peskov states a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy must finalize the settlement in Ukraine and fix agreements. TASS reports key statements from Peskov. TASS reports Trump allowed for a tripartite meeting with Putin and Zelenskyy but notes it should have happened three months ago. STERNENKO reports Trump's comment about a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin: "It will happen, but it will happen in 2 or 3 months." RBK-Ukraina also reports Trump's comments on the meeting. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Trump's comments on a trilateral meeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Neutral: Alex Parker Returns posts images implying the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier is beyond repair and will be sold or scrapped, based on statements from VTB bank head. Alex Parker Returns posts video of an individual in camouflage speaking about the war. BUTUSOV PLUS posts a video showing a cemetery with numerous graves decorated with Russian flags. TASS reports Matvienko welcomed the Central Bank's reduction of the key rate to 18%. WarGonzo video shows a media summit in Kamchatka. ASTRA photo message shows a social service center, likely related to reintegration programs for veterans. TASS reports Irina Volk stated Russia will not improve mechanisms for allowing people over 60 to drive, a minor domestic policy. TASS reports World Aquatics recognized Maltsev as the best synchronized swimmer of the World Championship, which is non-military information. Colonelcassad reports the sole Russian aircraft carrier, "Admiral Kuznetsov," is planned to be scrapped. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • New Intelligence:
    • RF Military Robotics: Colonelcassad reports RF MoD showcased the "Courier" ground combat robotic complex equipped with a 7.62-mm PKT machine gun, operated by Vostok Group personnel. The video confirms its maneuverability and weapon engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Internal Policy (Justice): TASS reports the military court upheld the verdict against Major General Ivan Popov for fraud and forgery. TASS reports former Deputy Governor of Bryansk Oblast Elena Egorova was sentenced to 9 years in a penal colony for large-scale bribery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Internal Propaganda/Policy: News of Moscow offers prizes in collaboration with 2GIS and Otello. Igor Artamonov promotes a cultural festival in Ryazanka. TASS reports bloggers will be penalized for old Instagram/Facebook ads. Alex Parker Returns posts about Telegram adding a licensed casino, likely RF social/economic news, not military. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • UAF Posture Statement: RBK-Ukraina reports UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky stated UAF retains the potential to defeat Russian offensive groupings. Operation Z dismisses Syrsky's statement as propaganda, highlighting the information war. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF MoD Summary: Colonelcassad provides a summary of RF MoD operations from July 19-25, 2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Leadership Meeting: TASS video shows Putin discussing maritime policy and preparation for the unified election day with Patrushev and Kolokoltsev. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Logistics (Civilian Impact): Moscow News reports luggage problems from Turkey flights. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Soldier Testimony: Arkhangel Spetsnaza video features a Russian soldier from 33rd Motorized Rifle Brigade (A4447) detailing civilian casualties due to friendly fire (grenade drop by 24th Motorized Rifle Brigade in Novoukrainka) and expressing disillusionment with command. Colonelcassad posts a video of a Russian serviceman released from Ukrainian captivity, nicknamed 'Shutnik' (Joker), describing physical abuse and his capture. This is likely an RF information operation aimed at discrediting UAF treatment of POWs and boosting morale of their own forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • DeepState Update (Zaporizhzhia): DeepState reports enemy continues to consolidate positions in Kamyanske and conduct assault operations towards Stepnohirsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • UAF Appeal for Support (Zaporizhzhia): Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 posts a video of two Ukrainian soldiers from the 7th Division, Zaporizhzhia, appealing for donations for aerial reconnaissance drones and Starlink, citing inability to fight effectively without them. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • UAF Financial Needs (Salaries): Two Majors reports Bloomberg: Zelenskyy plans to appeal to Europe for assistance with paying Ukrainian soldiers' salaries. MoD Russia video claims UAF command receives salaries on bank accounts, this is RF propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • UAF Training: Zelenskiy / Official and General Staff of UAF publish videos of military training, including tanks, soldiers and drone technology. DSHV posts photos depicting adaptive training periods for new personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • UAF Rehabilitation: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration publishes video of Zelenskyy visiting a rehabilitation center for injured soldiers. Oleg Syniehubov posts photo messages showing veteran support initiatives in Kharkiv Oblast, including recreational activities and rehabilitation facilities, pursuant to President Zelenskyy's directive. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Propaganda ("Satanists"): Basurin o glavnom publishes a video and photos promoting RF propaganda about "Satanists in the AFU." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for propaganda effort, LOW for factual basis).
    • RF Damage Assessment (Saratov): TASS video shows crane removing damaged vehicle from Saratov explosion site. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Weather in Ukraine: RBK-Ukraina publishes a weather map for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Claims of Progress (Donetsk): MoD Russia video shows "Tsentr Group" forcing enemy out of Donetsk People's Republic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • UAF POW Support: Coordination Staff for POWs publishes photos of a meeting with families of captured or missing servicemen from the 131st Battalion, 112th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade. RBK-Ukraina posts photos indicating that Ukraine has started burying prisoners of war who died in the Il-76 crash near Belgorod. This confirms the repatriation of bodies and the start of formal burials for the deceased POWs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Economic Discussion: TASS video of Nabiullina discussing inflation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF UAV Tactics: Kotsnews publishes a photo message claiming "Gerans" have learned new complex maneuvers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Ukrainian Internal Affairs: Oleksiy Biloshitsky publishes photo messages about new road signs. Oleksiy Biloshitsky posts video depicting Ukrainian special forces with medical evacuation equipment, highlighting efforts to improve casualty extraction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Recruitment: Colonelcassad is promoting a recruitment drive for the BARS-13 volunteer detachment. Arkhangel Spetsnaza posts about VDV Day collection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Internal Affairs (Activist): ASTRA reports that a Russian activist in Armenia is unable to leave due to an extradition request. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Internal Security (Looting): Colonelcassad posts videos of individuals smashing a glass storefront, looting, and being apprehended by military-style personnel in what is claimed to be ethnic cleansing in Es-Suwayda, Syria. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Internal Policy (Microsoft): TASS reports Microsoft's Russian subsidiary has filed for bankruptcy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Internal Policy (Justice): TASS reports journalist Dmitry Kolezev (labeled foreign agent) added to list of terrorists and extremists. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Internal Policy (Financial): Moscow News reports Sberbank reducing rates on mortgages and consumer loans. TASS reports Sberbank reducing mortgage rates by 2% and consumer loans by 1-2%. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Internal Policy (Corruption): TASS reports deputy head of Khimki municipality, Irina Zhdankina, placed under house arrest for large-scale bribery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • UAF Drone Production Target: Operatyvny ZSU and RBK-Ukraina report Zelenskyy aims for Ukraine to produce at least 1000 interceptor drones per day. Zelenskyy video shows him at a 3D printer manufacturing facility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • UAF Internal Affairs (Corruption): STERNENKO reports Odesa mayor Trukhanov fined 4.8 million UAH for illegal gambling advertising. General Staff of UAF announces new online course "Stop Corruption. Authorized Persons" in the Army+ application. Office of the Prosecutor General reports on a criminal investigation in Lviv Oblast regarding potential child protection violations in military training. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Military Morale/Welfare: Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts photos and video of a wounded Russian soldier, Andrei Naidenov, who returned to ruins of his home and requires housing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Air Operations (New Threat): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF is preparing new missile strike on Ukraine, with 3x Tu-95MS, 4x Tu-22M3, 8x MiG-31K, 2x Tu-160 observed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Milblogger Commentary: НгП раZVедка reports "distracted by an hour of fun," likely referring to the recent drone attacks in Russia, indicating RF milbloggers are adapting their narrative to acknowledge but downplay the impact of Ukrainian strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Military Leadership/Ideology: Igor Strelkov's statement "Do what you must - what is destined will happen" reflects a fatalistic but determined mindset among some RF hardliners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Milblogger Casualty: Voenkor Kotenok reports war correspondent Andrei Filatov went missing near Pokrovsk. Mash na Donbasse also reports Filatov under FPV drone fire. BUTUSOV ПЛЮС reports Russian war correspondent Andrei Filatov missing after FPV drone attack near Pokrovsk. ASTRA also confirms Filatov's disappearance. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts photos confirming war correspondent Andrei Filatov went missing near Pokrovsk after an FPV drone attack, citing Z-channels. Филолог в засаде reports that Filatov's motorcycle was hit by a drone and he is out of contact. Alex Parker Returns reports that Alexey Mil'chikov announced the death of reporter Filatov at the front. Fighterbomber claims Filatov "decided to stage a kidnapping." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Ukraine Internal Political Divisions: Anna Skorokhod claims Ukrainian authorities are preparing a criminal case against Kyiv Mayor Klitschko. Colonelcassad confirms Anna Skorokhod's claim. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Internal Security (Kuzbass): Rybar video message reports alleged ethnic crime and labor exploitation in the Kuzbass region, specifically mentioning Tajiks and Uzbeks, and the organization 'Bozkurt'. This indicates internal security challenges for RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Legal/Propaganda (Extremist Materials): TASS reports that the law on fines for searching extremist materials will not affect most Russians, according to Fadeyev. This statement aims to calm public fears about new censorship laws. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Propaganda ("Great Russian Culture"): STERNENKO posts a video titled "Great Russian Culture" showing apparent combat footage of Ukrainian drone strikes on RF personnel, using sarcasm to undermine RF cultural claims. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • US Action in Syria: RBK-Ukraina reports US liquidated a senior ISIS leader in Syria. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • RF Military Equipment (Light Vehicles): Rybar posts video and photo messages of "Combat Nivas" (modified Lada Niva vehicles) being used by RF forces, highlighting continued improvisation and use of civilian vehicles for military purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UAF Ammunition Logisitcs: Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video of a soldier preparing RPG-7 rounds and loading them onto a pickup truck for frontline delivery, demonstrating ongoing UAF logistics for close-combat munitions. The video caption states the soldier "stepped on a 'petal' (mine) when exiting positions," which is contradictory to the visual content of a soldier loading RPG-7 rounds onto a pickup. This requires re-evaluation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for visual, LOW for accompanying text). Operatyvny ZSU posts video of a drone equipped with an explosive projectile, suggesting use of improvised explosive devices or loitering munitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Reconnaissance & Strike: Воин DV posts a drone video showing a military vehicle transporting personnel being hit by a precision strike, demonstrating RF reconnaissance and strike capabilities against UAF light transport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • RF Soldier Morale/Daily Life: Два майора posts a series of photos under the rubric "Soldier's Daily Life," depicting RF soldiers in various settings: dugouts, observing terrain, with weapons. These provide insight into their living conditions and routines. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Turkish Drone Carrier (ALPIN-2): Два майора posts photos and video of a new modification of the Turkish ALPiN-2 unmanned helicopter, now capable of carrying smaller drones ("drone carrier"), indicating continued development in drone warfare and potential for deployment by various actors, including RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • RF Diplomatic Initiative (UNSC): TASS reports RF requested a UNSC meeting on July 31 to discuss attempts to disrupt Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in Istanbul. A UN source confirmed to TASS that the UNSC meeting on Ukraine, requested by RF, will take place on July 31. Basurin o glavnom video shows a UN Security Council meeting, featuring RF's representative critiquing Ukraine's actions and policies. This indicates RF's continued use of international platforms for information warfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Geopolitical Activity (Transcaucasia): WarGonzo reports increased military-political activity in Transcaucasia, stating the region is becoming "another front of global confrontation." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • RF Strategic Bomber Redeployment: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports redeployment of one Tu-95MS aircraft from Olenya airbase to Engels-2 for X-101 cruise missile loading. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Ukrainian Local Governance: STERNENKO reports a community in Odesa Oblast renamed streets after fallen Ukrainian military personnel and liberation movement figures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • RF Mobilization Issues (Wounded personnel): МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Sрочники posts video and photos alleging "cripples are being sent to the front," showing individuals with apparent injuries or disabilities in military settings, suggesting forced or inappropriate mobilization of unfit personnel. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
    • International Reactions (Trump on Palestine): RBK-Ukraina posts photo messages about Trump's strong criticism of Macron's plan to recognize Palestine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UAF Drone Operations (ISR/Strike): Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts photos showing UAF drones conducting ISR, highlighting their "good photography" capabilities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video showing UAF border guards targeting RF "Zala," "Supercam," "Orlan," and "Molniya" drones, demonstrating active counter-UAS operations and indicating the types of RF drones encountered. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Zaporizhzhia Regional Summary (UAF): Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides a weekly video summary: over 3300 RF attacks (2 deaths, 10 injured, 200+ buildings damaged), delivery of 32M UAH in FPV drones/quadcopters/comms to 14 brigades, diplomatic visits, and business development initiatives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Ukrainian Volunteer Support: Operatyvny ZSU posts video of 137th Battalion soldiers thanking subscribers for three DJI Mavic 3 drones, demonstrating continued volunteer and civilian support for UAF units. The background shows Ukrainian, Australian, and British flags, suggesting international solidarity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Vehicle Destruction: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of a Russian military truck ("bukhanka") burning after being hit, with personnel evacuating, implying a successful UAF strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • UAF Drone Strike Footage: Operatyvny ZSU posts drone footage showing multiple strikes on terrain and damaged structures, including a vehicle, indicating active UAF drone strike operations. Operatyvny ZSU posts a fundraising video for equipment for the 112th Territorial Defense Brigade's UAV strike unit (RUbpAK). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • UPDATES from RBK-Ukraina: Updates on drone movement from RBK-Ukraina indicate continued, persistent RF drone activity. ASTRA photo messages regarding EU roaming for Moldova and Ukraine are non-military but reflect international relations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • UPDATES from BUTUSOV PLUS: Photo messages with offensive/derogatory language towards RF indicate an active Ukrainian information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • UPDATES from Дневник Десантника🇷🇺: Promotion of "Paratrooper brotherhood and family" is morale-boosting for RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • UPDATES from Два майора: Fundraising video for "Frontline Armor" confirms continued need for donations for RF forces. Operatyvny ZSU's video on "Russian millionaire inhales last free portions of air" is likely propaganda. Colonelcassad's use of UAF loss figures from "WarTears" is an RF propaganda tactic. Operatyvny ZSU's video "Как мух ляпалкой" suggests a strong Ukrainian strike. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan confirmed an "agreement in principle" for a leaders' summit in Istanbul. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • NEW: Operations Z reports principle agreement on summit of leaders and desire to reach consensus, citing Turkish FM. Operatsiya Z milbloggers report powerful explosions and fires on enemy targets in Dnipropetrovsk and Dniprodzerzhynsk (Kamianske). RF milblogger N. Vanek posts a video with repeating text and blurry lights, likely a visual of explosions or fire. Colonelcassad posts video of a large Chinese drone system demonstrating firefighting or large-scale dispersal capability, framed as a "new trend." TASS posts a photo message of Viktor Medvedchuk claiming many Ukrainians are grateful to RF for strikes on TCCs. RBK-Ukraina publishes photos from Kamianske Mayor Bilousov showing the aftermath of RF attacks on the city, including extensive damage and smoke, confirming significant impact. RF Milbloggers "Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" report the Polish Foreign Minister has criticized Zelenskyy over the NABU and SAP law. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Neutral: NGP Razvedka posts an image of a screenshot from a messaging application, likely Telegram, showing a message from a user named "Stas". The content of the message is in Russian and translates to: "it's a lie - there is Kharkiv and it is in first place." This message is not militarily relevant. TASS reports an Amur tiger was hit by a car in Primorye, and an investigation is underway. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• RF (Amur Oblast): Taiga and mountainous terrain complicate search efforts for An-24 crash. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF (Volgograd Oblast): Hurricane downed 8 high-voltage power line poles, leaving parts of settlements without electricity and water. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF (Moscow/Moscow Oblast): "Tropical rains" have reached Moscow, with severe flooding impacting urban infrastructure. Moscow region expects fog with visibility 100-500 meters. Moscow has reduced the list of permitted swimming areas to four, likely due to water quality concerns following heavy rains/flooding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Cyprus: Significant wildfires raging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Kyiv: Heat has led to cargo transport restrictions. Ukrhydrometcenter predicts thunderstorms with squalls 15-20 m/s in Kyiv for the next hour and until the end of July 25. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• General: Widespread reports confirm a global Starlink outage affecting communication along the entire front line in Ukraine. SpaceX has confirmed a service outage. Recent updates indicate the Starlink outage was software-related and largely resolved within 2.5 hours. While resolved, the incident highlights a persistent vulnerability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Mariupol: The drying up of the Starokrymske Reservoir indicates significant environmental and humanitarian impacts. Mash на Донбассе reports crowd of residents in Makeevka gathered for water. ASTRA reports a 7x reduction in water consumption standards in "DNR" for those without meters, following complaints. Videos show civilians queuing for water in Kiyravsky district, collecting murky water, and in Osepyanovka village. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF (Saratov Oblast): Threat of further building collapse after gas explosion. TASS reports over 30 apartments may be damaged or destroyed in Saratov. TASS reports blast wave damaged glazing of neighboring building in Saratov. RF Governor declared regional state of emergency. RF Minister of Emergency Situations Aleksandr Kurenkov has arrived in Saratov. TASS reports 9 injured, increasing the humanitarian impact. ASTRA photo messages confirm the number of injured in Saratov gas explosion has risen to 15. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Donetsk Oblast: Butusov Plus posts videos showing civilians queuing for water, indicating potential water shortages due to infrastructure damage. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video showing civilians gathering at night on a dirt road, likely waiting for water, implying water shortages in Donetsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Kharkiv Oblast: Oleg Syniehubov reports over 186 hectares of Kharkiv Oblast territory have been demined in the past week, indicating ongoing efforts to mitigate the long-term environmental and safety impact of hostilities. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, warns of possible bad weather in Kharkiv Oblast tomorrow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukraine General: RBK-Ukraina publishes weather map showing heat up to +40 degrees and heavy rains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF: Air defense (AD) remains on high alert nationwide, actively engaging and responding to missile and UAV threats (7 UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk, 90 of 103 RF UAVs downed overnight, plus 1 cruise missile; now 54/61 enemy UAVs and 0/2 Iskander-M/KN-23 suppressed). Emergency services are actively responding to significant civilian infrastructure damage and casualties. UAF General Staff provides updated RF loss figures and situational reports (172 combat engagements, 980 personnel, 2 AD systems). Ukrainian units continue fundraising for equipment. Ukrainian forces (MURAMASA, STERNENKO) continue successful drone strikes. Coordination Staff for POWs confirmed a successful prisoner exchange. Zelenskiy / Official reports Russia launched 103 attack drones and 4 missiles overnight. DSHV confirm return of paratroopers. RBK-Ukraina reports Ukraine is scaling up production of explosives. General Staff announces "Ballistics" (armor/equipment manufacturer) as a new partner in "Army+" program. General Prosecutor's Office reports detention of a deserting serviceman for attempted robbery. Oleg Syniehubov posts photos of returned POWs. President Zelenskyy approved a draft law strengthening law enforcement, anti-corruption bodies, and protecting them from Russian influence. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts drone footage demonstrating weekly destruction of over 50 Russian reconnaissance drones. STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF (SSO A) engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a new ballistic missile threat from the northeast. Butusov Plus posts videos from SBU's "A" Special Operations Center, claiming over 2100 Russian soldiers eliminated in less than a month through industrial-scale drone operations. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukraїni post video of drone strikes by 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade. ОТУ "ХАРКІВ" posts new drone footage showing "Molniya" strike UAVs destroying Russian observation posts and a UAZ 'Bukhanka'. "Ukrzaliznytsia" is strengthening document control during train boarding. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that German HENSOLDT will produce TRML-4D and SPEXER 2000 radars for Ukraine for €340 million. New US aid package for $330M approved, including AD and SAU. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video and confirms localization of German Vector drone production in Ukraine. The global Starlink outage will significantly impact UAF communication and drone operations. Operatyvny ZSU posts a video of a fighter jet performing maneuvers, with a watermark 'AIR_FIGHTER'. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs north of Zaporizhzhia and in central Sumy Oblast, stating that assets are engaged to shoot them down. The Starlink outage has been largely resolved, but communications remain affected for some units ("Dnevnik Desantnika"). Nikolaevsky Vanek reports that all "mopeds" (drones) detected in Poltava Oblast near Kremenchuk and Svitlovodsk are confirmed neutralized. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) over Sumy city. UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction. UAF Air Force confirms GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts. UAF General Staff provides updated operational information as of 08:00 25.07.2025, with a map depicting combat operations on 24.07.2025, showing contested areas and enemy advances in Orikhiv and Lyman directions. UAF Air Force reports ballistic missile threat from Donetsk, which has been cleared. UAF General Staff provides an updated summary as of 08:00 25.07.2025 (photo message). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports air raid alert cleared. UAF Air Force reports ballistic missile threat cleared. STERNENKO posts a message implying continued need for drone donations. Office of the Prosecutor General reports over 100M UAH transferred to ARMA from corruption case. Operatyvny ZSU posts a video titled "Occupiers must be killed and you can help with that!" likely a call to action/recruitment. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration promotes handball for veterans. Шеф Hayabusa posts a photo message of the frontline on Pokrovsk direction. Operatyvny ZSU reports the SBU detained another FSB agent who helped RF shell Kharkiv, with photos showing the detention. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Air Defense forces shot down 54 out of 63 enemy UAVs overnight. GUR cyber specialists conducted a "digital strike" against the occupation administration of Crimea, destroying all data on "government" servers. UAF General Staff posts photo messages promoting teamwork. Coordination Staff for POWs posts a video of a returning POW, promoting his story. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy stated Russia is "getting smacked" near Pokrovsk. Operatyvny ZSU reports the first Patriot battery and missiles from Germany have arrived in Ukraine. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the arrival of a Patriot system and missiles from Germany. RBK-Ukraina reports Patriot system and additional missiles have arrived in Ukraine. RBK-Ukraina reports Ukraine will receive another IRIS-T from Germany. Operatyvny ZSU confirms Ukraine will receive an 8th IRIS-T from Germany. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of two Russian soldiers surrendering near Vovchansk. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports that Ukrainian and Polish law enforcement liquidated a transnational drug network, seizing hundreds of kilograms of drugs. UAF General Staff reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Zaliznychne of Zaporizhzhia region, Kherson and Mykolayivka of Kherson region. UAF General Staff provides detailed updates on yesterday's clashes: South Slobozhansky(Kharkiv) direction near Vovchansk, Zelene, Petro-Ivanivka and Kamyanke; Kupyansk direction near Stepova Novoselivka, Zahryzove, Kupyansk, Zelenyi Hai and towards Velyka Shapkivka; Lyman direction near Hrekivka, Novyy Myr, Yampolivka, Torske, Serebryanka, also towards Dronivka, Shandryholove, Cherneschyna, Serednye; Sieversk direction near Hryhorivka and Pereyizne; Kramatorsk direction near Mykolayivka and towards Bila Hora; Toretsk direction near Dyliyivka, Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, towards Pleschiyivka, Oleksandro-Shultyne and Katerynivka; Pokrovsk direction near Myrne, Myrnohrad, Novoekonomichne, Lysivka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne, Promin, also towards Volodymyrivka, Rodynske and Pokrovsk; Novopavlivka direction near Piddubne, Maliyivka, Yalta, Voskresenka, towards Temyrivka and Oleksandrohrad; Orikhiv direction near Stepnohirsk; Kherson direction Ukrainian forces have repelled 5 Russian army assaults; Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction Ukrainian forces have repelled 25 Russian army assaults. BUTUSOV ПЛЮС video shows mass liquidation of Russian forces near Torske. Operatyvny ZSU reports Col. Kyrylo Veres, Hero of Ukraine, is one of the most popular military figures. Coordination Staff for POWs reports outreach to families of servicemen in Vinnytsia Oblast. RBK-Ukraina reports PM Shmyhal outlined 3 key needs of UAF for EU discussions. STERNENKO claims 1129 Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment shot down 9 enemy wings. RBK-Ukraina, Operatyvny ZSU report Zelenskyy approved extension of martial law and mobilization for three months (until November 5th). Operatyvny ZSU reports 118th Separate Mechanized Brigade repelled attack in the south, destroying 1 tank, 3 BMPs, 4 trucks and eliminating 38 personnel. Military Intelligence analysis report on a Patriot battery confirms Germany's transfer. Military Intelligence analysis report on 17 AK UAF preparing for combat from Arkhangel Spetsnaza. General Staff of UAF photo message shows a soldier in military attire with helmet and goggles, suggesting operational readiness. Zelenskiy / Official and KMVA posts videos of Zelenskyy visiting rehabilitation centers. RBK-Ukraina reports the Polish prosecutor's office has launched an investigation into a Polish citizen who showed his participation in the war on the side of Russia on TikTok. KMVA and Oleg Syniehubov publish new videos of military training, showing tanks, soldiers, and drone technology, emphasizing professional and effective preparation. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration publishes video of Zelenskyy visiting a rehabilitation center for injured soldiers. Coordination Staff for POWs publishes photos of meeting with families of 131st Battalion, 112th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade, servicemen who are POWs or missing. Office of the Prosecutor General reports the detention of an organizer of a bribery scheme to evade mobilization in Zakarpattia Oblast. UAF General Staff posts photo messages indicating NATO meetings. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Syrsky stated new AD systems are coming. Zelenskiy / Official and Operatyvny ZSU report Zelenskyy aims for 1000 interceptor drones per day; Zelenskyy video shows him at drone interceptor production facility, inspecting 3D printers and component assembly. General Staff of UAF announces new online course "Stop Corruption. Authorized Persons" in the Army+ application. STERNENKO reports Odesa mayor Trukhanov fined 4.8 million UAH for illegal gambling advertising. OPG reports a murder investigation opened by Sumy Oblast Prosecutor. Office of the Prosecutor General reports initiating a criminal investigation in Lviv Oblast, following an image of children participating in military training, for potential violations of child protection laws. Operatyvny ZSU posts a video of a UAF soldier loading RPG-7 rounds onto a pickup truck. Operatyvny ZSU posts a video showing military apprehension, vehicles, and medical attention. While the accompanying text states a soldier stepped on a mine, the video's content suggests a different operation, possibly personnel recovery or capture. UAF General Staff posts photo messages emphasizing "We are a fundamentally different army than four years ago" and displaying #NATO and US/UA flags, reflecting continued integration and professionalization. Operatyvny ZSU posts a video of soldiers from the 137th Battalion thanking supporters for three DJI Mavic 3 drones. This highlights the continued reliance on volunteer and civilian support for critical equipment. STERNENKO posts a video of "effective demining" involving an explosion, possibly indicating a targeted strike on an RF position, emphasizing the concept of "barrier trauma" for the enemy. The drone telemetry confirms Ukrainian origin. Operatyvny ZSU posts a photo of two individuals in black and white, with the caption "Cuckold publishes b/w photo with war correspondent Filatov." This appears to be a negative commentary related to the recently reported missing RF war correspondent, suggesting a Ukrainian information operation. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports that veteran policy is a priority in the region. General Staff of UAF posts an update on Russian invasion as of 22:00 25.07.2025. Operatyvny ZSU posts an alert regarding drone movement. STERNENKO reports three groups of strike UAVs detected. RBK-Ukraina is continuously fixing enemy drone activity. UAF Air Force reports ballistic missile threat from the east. UAF Air Force reports missile through Kharkiv Oblast heading for Dnipro, course towards Dnipro. Explosions heard in Dnipro. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports "missiles minus." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

• RFU: Continues deep strike operations targeting Ukrainian territory with UAVs and missiles/GABs. Aggressively promoting claimed battlefield successes. MOD Russia claims Grad MLRS use near Krasnoarmeysk. RF AD actively engaged in defending its territory, claiming 105 UAVs downed. Conducting prisoner exchanges and information operations. MOD Russia posted video of a naval exercise ("Ilyusky Shtorm") with missile launches. Putin and Mirziyoyev expressed satisfaction with strategic partnership. MOD Russia claims high-precision strikes on energy facilities powering the military-industrial complex (MIC). Gleb Nikitin (Nizhny Novgorod Governor) posts photos and video of substantial humanitarian aid deliveries to RF forces, including Mavics, FPV drones, optical sights, vehicles, and a tracked robotic platform "Molot". TASS reports Putin stated plans to create modern naval forces will be fully implemented. Colonelcassad posts video of a FPV drone strike by the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade against a Ukrainian forces pickup truck in the South Donetsk direction. Kotsnews posts a video titled "Kill 'Baba Yaga'," showing drone footage. TASS reports Putin is visiting Severodvinsk. "Two Majors" posts a video of an FPV anti-air drone called "Rocket." Военкор Котенок posts a video of an FPV drone ambush on a Ukrainian Forces pickup truck. Операция Z posts video showing aerial footage of military operations near Dmytrov (Mirnohrad). Colonelcassad claims liberation of Shevchenko and Pivdenny micro-districts in Chasiv Yar by 98th VDV, and envelopment of Zemlianky micro-districts, and liberation of Yablonovka on the Konstantinovka direction. Z комитет + карта СВО posts a tactical map of Novopavlovskoe direction. Colonelcassad posts an animated map showing alleged Russian missile and drone strikes. MoD Russia posts video of Putin raising the naval ensign on the 'Knyaz Pozharsky' nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine. Basurin o glavnom posts video showing a BM-21 Grad MLRS in action, reconnaissance drone use, and mine clearance. Kadyrov_95 posts video of volunteers departing Grozny airport for the front. Russian milbloggers are confirming the global Starlink outage. TASS reports RF forces inflicted an airstrike on a UAF HQ in Kherson. RBK-Ukraina reports at least 7 explosions in the suburbs of Taganrog and Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast. New reports from ASTRA indicate residents of Novocherkassk are again reporting a large number of drones and explosions. Igor Artamonov warns of a UAV attack threat in Yelets and Yelets district. RF has declared a "red" level drone threat for Lipetsk Oblast. ASTRA reports "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) implemented in North Ossetia and other SKFO regions due to UAV threat, citing Menyaylo. Krasnodar Krai Operative Headquarters reports drone attack. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train car, injuring two, which will be leveraged for propaganda. Continued GAB launches on Sumy Oblast. НгП раZVедка reports Nevinnomyssk is reflecting the most massive attack on the North Caucasus during the entire SVO. Temporary flight restrictions in 8 RF airports. This indicates a perceived success in AD and continued high state of alert in RF border regions. НгП раZVедка praises Nevinnomyssk AD. НгП раZVедка claims "Our victory" and "stand down" in Nevinnomyssk, implying successful AD. TASS reports new suspects may emerge in the case of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, accused of abuse of power. ASTRA posts video showing alleged attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot industrial plant. RBK-Ukraina posts video showing alleged attack on a chemical plant in Stavropol Krai. RBK-Ukraina reports 45 flights delayed in Sochi airport. Colonelcassad posts videos showing strikes on enemy manpower and equipment by the 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade and the 114th Motorised Rifle Regiment of the 127th Division of the 5th Army Group "Vostok". Operatyvny ZSU posts videos confirming drone activity and explosions in Rostov Oblast. Colonelcassad posts videos showing FPV drone as RPG carrier. Colonelcassad posts videos showing FPV drone operators from 5th Separate Guards Tank Brigade ("Vostok" group) hitting enemy logistics in South-Donetsk direction. Igor Artamonov reports "yellow level" drone threat lifted. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video titled "Good drones didn't let Russia sleep: a series of explosions occurred in Stavropol Krai, Tambov, and Rostov Oblasts." Басурин о главном posts #МЫПОМНИМ photo messages. TASS posts video and analysis of claimed "liberation" of Novoekonomichne. TASS reports RF forces created a "fire bag" for UAF in the Yuzhny quarter of Chasiv Yar. Operational ZSU reports explosions in occupied Donetsk. Operation Z reports 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over 10 regions overnight. WarGonzo posts video of UAF rocket strikes on Donetsk. CyberBoroshno claims successful strike on RF HQ in Donetsk. TASS reports Soyuz-2.1b launch from Vostochny Cosmodrome. ASTRA reports Russia is forming a battalion of captured Ukrainian soldiers. Kotsnews and Arkhangel Spetsnaza post recruitment videos for Russian military service, offering 5.5 million rubles for the first year. MoD Russia posts video of servicemen of the 20th Guards Combined Arms Army training in assault tactics in LPR. Colonelcassad posts photo and video of claimed liberation of Novoekonomichne, showing Russian flags. TASS posts video of detention of a man in Cherepovets linked to Ukrainian call centers. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russia is forming a battalion from captured Ukrainian military personnel, citing State Duma deputy Vodolatsky. ASTRA reports Russia is forming a battalion from captured Ukrainian military personnel, citing State Duma deputy Vodolatsky. Arkhangel Spetsnaza posts a photo message congratulating the 45th VDV Brigade on their holiday. Rybar posts a video about "combat control know-how" showing Russian military officers discussing networked systems for coordinating devices and software, and tactical displays. Basurin о главном posts a photo with a sledgehammer and text implying aggressive retaliation, "He who comes to us with a sword will get a sledgehammer to the head!" Z комитет + карта СВО posts drone footage of destroyed urban area and claims from 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (5OMSBBr). Narodnaya militsiya DNR posts video of a drone ambush on a UAF pickup truck near Novoekonomichne. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts video of a cemetery in Murmansk with many graves. Butusov Plus posts video of Russian soldiers in a trench. Colonelcassad reports 105 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed or intercepted overnight. TASS posts video of SF honoring victims of An-24 crash. Rybar posts video showing transfer of US dollars and political influence in Moldova, indicating RF's focus on Western interference in post-Soviet states. MoD Russia posts video of naval operations during "July Storm" exercises. Poddubny ZOV Edition posts messages appealing for donations to support RF units on the front lines. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a tactical map on the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating ongoing operations. Colonelcassad posts graphic video of a Russian soldier allegedly killing his wounded comrade. MoD Russia reports 10 group strikes including 3 Kinzhal missiles from 19-25 July. Fighterbomber claims 4 Patriot launchers and an AN/MPQ-65 radar destroyed over the past week (CONFIDENCE: LOW). TASS reports a UAF platoon defected from positions near Yanvarskoye (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) and attempting to illegally export weapons from Sumy Oblast to other regions (CONFIDENCE: LOW). Vooin DV posts drone footage of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade destroying UAF transport, UAV control point, and artillery in the Yanvarskoye area. MoD Russia presents weekly operational summary; indicates 10 group strikes and 3 Kinzhal missiles. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki reports Russian losses exceeded 120,000. Basurin o glavnom reports UAF continue daily UAV attacks on Russian regions, with increasing numbers of drones. Operation Z reports an interview with a Ukrainian commander discussing "idiocy" within the Ukrainian army. TASS reports the main naval parade in St. Petersburg has been canceled. Narodnaya militsiya DNR reports UAF struck civilian areas of Donetsk again this morning. Colonelcassad video shows "Rubikon" combat groups for air defense, indicating continued Russian AD operations. Alex Parker Returns posts video of a rescue operation in a damaged urban environment, and video of an explosion, attributing it to locals complaining about gas pipes, framing the Saratov explosion as an internal issue, not a Ukrainian strike. Operation Z posts a video of a claimed Ukrainian POW saying he "saw no other way" and wanted to help RF forces, for propaganda purposes. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts a photo showing an increase in funeral companies, potentially implying a rise in RF casualties. Colonelcassad reports "enemy reports sharp deterioration of situation in Krasnoarmeysk, Dimitrov (Mirnograd) and north of Krasnoarmeysk agglomeration," suggesting RF narrative of sustained advances. Rybar and Two Majors photo messages show the claimed "liberation of Novoekonomichne," further solidifying RF's narrative of territorial gains. Colonelcassad video shows numerous black dual-sport motorcycles in formation, for potential tactical mobility/reconnaissance. Военкор Котенок posts a photo of an RC-135V Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft, attributing its return to "Polish presence," implying heightened NATO ISR activity. Басурин о главном posts a photo depicting a large crowd waving Russian flags with a church in the background, captioned "In Great Britain, they were surprised by the patriotism of Russians," indicating RF's use of public events for propaganda and emphasizing domestic support. Рыбарь posts a photo message captioned "Moldovans - Amnesty," implying a policy related to Moldovan citizens in Russia, likely linked to the previous report about simplified entry/work for Moldovans, and consistent with RF's efforts to influence its near abroad. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo message with the caption "Classics of modern narrow literature," and another message stating it's related to a fictional work, indicating a sarcastic Ukrainian information operation against Russian culture or propaganda. MoD Russia video shows "Tsentr Group" forcing enemy out of Donetsk People's Republic. Basurin o glavnom publishes a video and photos promoting RF propaganda about "Satanists in the AFU." TASS video shows crane removing damaged vehicle from Saratov explosion site. Операция Z reports a former UAF soldier, a student from Chuvashia who joined the AFU, was returned to Russia during a prisoner exchange. TASS reports Belousov stated RF forces confidently advancing on October direction and improving position. Colonelcassad posts videos of alleged ethnic cleansing in Es-Suwayda province, Syria, featuring masked individuals and armed personnel. TASS reports Microsoft's Russian subsidiary has filed for bankruptcy. TASS reports journalist Dmitry Kolezev (labeled foreign agent) added to list of terrorists and extremists. Moscow News reports Sberbank reducing rates on mortgages and consumer loans. TASS reports deputy head of Khimki municipality, Irina Zhdankina, placed under house arrest for large-scale bribery. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports new missile strike preparation with strategic bombers (Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, Tu-160) and MiG-31K. Operation Z claims 500 volunteers from "Lev" battalion in Lviv are shooting down Shaheds (CONFIDENCE: LOW). Rybar video message reports alleged ethnic crime and labor exploitation in Kuzbass, specifically mentioning Tajiks and Uzbeks, and the organization 'Bozkurt'. TASS reports that the law on fines for searching extremist materials will not affect most Russians, according to Fadeyev. Rybar posts video and photo messages of "Combat Nivas" (modified Lada Niva vehicles) being used by RF forces. Воин DV posts a drone video showing a military vehicle transporting personnel being hit by a precision strike. Два майора posts a series of photos under the rubric "Soldier's Daily Life." Два майора posts photos and video of a new modification of the Turkish ALPiN-2 unmanned helicopter, now capable of carrying smaller drones ("drone carrier"). Colonelcassad posts a video related to fundraising for a 4th vehicle convoy ("KatyaValya line") showing a large storage facility filled with numerous new motorcycles, implying they are being acquired for military use or support. Colonelcassad reports artillery from the 8th Combined Arms Army, Group "South," using the new 152mm "Hyacinth-K" (Giatsint-K) self-propelled howitzer on a BAZ-6910-027 "Voshchina" wheeled chassis in the Konstantinovka direction, Donetsk. The video shows the weapon firing and impacts in agricultural fields. Военкор Котенок posts two identical photo messages with a caption in Russian (translated to "There is a sign: if you shake hands with the drug führer of the buffer zone: prepare for a trip 'to Bandera'"). This is RF propaganda attempting to dehumanize Ukrainian leadership and incite fear. Военкор Котенок posts a video featuring a man in military attire discussing the importance of military service and commitment, likely a morale-boosting or patriotic message. Operatyvny ZSU posts a message stating "Katsaps will not kill themselves, though it would be good!", indicating Ukrainian frustration and a desire for RF self-destruction, likely in response to RF's internal incidents. Старше Эдды posts a message calling a person a "complete asshole," implying internal RF milblogger infighting or criticism, but provides no specific military intelligence. Два майора posts videos on "information distortions," which contain RF political commentary on nationalism, migration, and external influence, primarily for internal consumption. Operatyvny ZSU publishes a video showing a Russian soldier ritualistically sacrificing his comrade to a Ukrainian drone, with an accompanying caption about "ritualistic sacrifice" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for propaganda, LOW for factual basis). Operatsiya Z milbloggers post videos and photos claiming powerful explosions and fires on enemy targets in Dnipropetrovsk and Dniprodzerzhynsk (Kamianske). RF milblogger N. Vanek posts a video with repetitive text, showing blurred lights that appear to be explosions/fire, implying an attack. Colonelcassad posts video of a large Chinese drone system demonstrating firefighting or large-scale dispersal capabilities, framing it as a "new trend." TASS posts a photo message of Viktor Medvedchuk claiming many Ukrainians are grateful to RF for strikes on TCCs, a clear propaganda effort. Colonelcassad has posted a series of tactical analysis images that appear to be boilerplate responses, indicating potential automation or general-purpose content dissemination. Colonelcassad also posted a video of a Russian serviceman, released from Ukrainian captivity, who claims physical abuse during capture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:

  • Enhanced Deep Strike Capacity (UAV/Missile/GAB): RF maintains a high tempo of deep strikes using UAVs, missiles, and GABs. Confirmed operational use of the FAB-3000 M-54 UMPK and UMPB-5 indicates an increasing destructive capability against fortified positions and urban areas. The use of P-800 Onyx anti-ship missiles against ground targets in Odesa highlights adaptation of naval assets for land attack, expanding the threat profile for coastal cities. The redeployment of a Tu-95MS to Engels-2 for X-101 loading, combined with the observation of other strategic bombers (Tu-22M3, Tu-160) and MiG-31K, suggests preparation for a new, large-scale missile strike. RF claims 105 UAVs shot down over 10 regions, alongside confirmed impacts in Krasnodar Krai, Rostov Oblast, Nevinnomyssk, and Tambov Oblast, indicate ongoing effectiveness of Ukrainian long-range drone attacks despite RF AD efforts. The Tambov Powder Plant being hit is particularly significant for RF munition production. New reports of cruise missiles and ballistic missiles targeting Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Kamianske further confirm this capability. RF milbloggers are confirming powerful explosions and fires on targets in Dnipropetrovsk and Kamianske. The current multi-directional drone attack on Dnipro and Kamianske demonstrates RF's capability to conduct complex, saturated drone strikes. NGP Razvedka's video suggesting AD failure in Dnipro, combined with video of fire in Kamianske, further supports the effectiveness of these deep strikes. The current wave of UAVs in Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, coupled with a ballistic missile threat from the east towards Dnipro, indicates continued, sophisticated deep strike capabilities. Operation Z confirms CNN reports of a significantly scaled Shahed production plant in Alabuga, indicating sustained production capacity for drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Escalated Offensive Operations (Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk / Zaporizhzhia Axes): RF forces have adapted tactics to include larger, coordinated company-sized mechanized assaults, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis, as evidenced by claimed breakthroughs into Pokrovsk and advances near Novoekonomichne and Zverevo. The commitment of 98th VDV Division elements to Chasiv Yar for an imminent assault further indicates the prioritization and capability for significant ground pushes. RF continues localized tactical gains, securing areas and fire control along the LNR administrative border near Petrovsky, and advancing towards Belaya Gora, Shcherbinovka, and the Seversky Donets-Donbas canal. Claims of forces penetrating the center of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) indicate an aggressive intent to seize key urban centers. Claims of significant RF advances in Serebryansky forestry and control over a pioneer camp near Lake Linevoye (Luhansk Oblast) indicate continued localized ground capabilities. RF claims to have destroyed Ukrainian ground robots near Konstantinovka and Serebryanka, indicating a continued focus on anti-robotics warfare. The claimed liberation of Aleksandro-Kalinovo (Konstantinovka direction) by "Operatsiya Z" and "Two Majors" further indicates sustained offensive capability. The use of new long-range artillery systems like the "Hyacinth-K" (Giatsint-K) on the Konstantinovka direction demonstrates an enhancement of indirect fire capabilities for deeper engagement and support of ground advances. TASS reports RF forces are advancing in three directions from Melovoe in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating a continued focus on localized advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Persistent Offensive Pressure (Kharkiv/Sumy): RF maintains pressure on the Kharkiv and Sumy axes, evidenced by continued GAB launches and claimed creation of a "security strip." While large-scale breakthroughs are not confirmed, RF milbloggers report "good news" from Sumy and Kharkiv directions, indicating ongoing localized combat and attempts to advance. The reported involvement of the 155th Separate Guards Naval Infantry Brigade in the Sumy direction suggests the deployment of capable units for sustained pressure. RF claims to have destroyed a T-64BV tank in Sumy Oblast, indicating continued reconnaissance and strike capabilities in this sector. TASS reports nearly all of Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast, is under RF control, indicating localized advances and persistent pressure in border regions. Current UAV and ballistic missile strikes on Kharkiv and shelling of Zmiiv confirm continued offensive capability in Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Intensified ISR/EW (Multi-Domain): RF continues to conduct extensive reconnaissance with Orlan-10/30, ZALA, Supercam, and Molniya UAVs across multiple oblasts (Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Kherson) and in the Black Sea. The global Starlink outage, even if accidental, likely presented a significant opportunity for RF to exploit communication disruptions, and their ability to track and publicize NATO ISR assets (RC-135V) demonstrates their comprehensive ISR capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Adaptive Homeland Defense & Counter-UAS: RF demonstrates continuous adaptation in homeland defense, including widespread deployment of "carpet" plans (anti-drone measures), temporary flight restrictions in multiple airports, and claims of significant UAV interceptions (105 overnight). While some impacts are confirmed, the rapid response and widespread AD activity demonstrate an improving, albeit imperfect, defensive posture. The claimed development of "Rubikon" combat groups for air defense indicates an adaptive C2 structure for counter-UAS operations. Claims of "Gerans" learning new complex maneuvers suggest an ongoing cat-and-mouse game in drone warfare tactics. The implementation of drone attack warning systems through water vending machines in Voronezh indicates a novel, albeit unusual, adaptation in civilian alert systems. The declaration of "yellow level" drone alerts in Lipetsk Oblast further confirms the persistent threat and RF's adaptive response. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Internal Security & Resilience: RF maintains effective internal security apparatus, evidenced by arrests of individuals assisting Ukraine, combating internal corruption, and managing information flow. The rapid response to the Saratov gas explosion, including high-level official visits and immediate victim payments, projects governmental care and resilience in the face of domestic crises. Continued efforts to control narrative around the Crocus attack, linking it to Ukraine, demonstrate an effective information warfare capability. Recent arrests of alleged FSB/MoD personnel in corruption cases show an ongoing, albeit inconsistent, effort to manage internal issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Naval Power Projection: RF is demonstrating continued naval power through large-scale exercises ("July Storm") involving multiple fleets and live missile launches in the Sea of Japan. The commissioning of the 'Knyaz Pozharsky' nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine further enhances their strategic naval capabilities. The reported plan to scrap the "Admiral Kuznetsov" aircraft carrier (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) would significantly impact Russia's blue-water naval power projection, but could free up resources for other naval developments or land-based capabilities.
  • Military Robotics: The showcasing of the "Courier" ground combat robotic complex indicates RF's ongoing investment and potential for deployment of autonomous systems, which could provide remote firepower and reduce personnel risk in future operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Forced Mobilization/POW Exploitation: Reports of Russia forming a battalion of captured Ukrainian soldiers and CNN's report on involvement of teenagers and women in Shahed drone assembly factories demonstrate a concerning capability for exploiting and coercing segments of their own population and captured personnel for military production and combat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Hybrid Warfare/Geopolitical Influence: The Russian representative's critique of Ukraine at the UN Security Council meeting indicates RF's continued use of diplomatic platforms for information warfare and delegitimization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Cyber Warfare: RF has likely maintained its cyber offensive capabilities, as evidenced by the UAF's OpsHackRussia'sDay (OHRD) operation that allegedly retrieved significant data, implying continued RF vulnerability but also active network presence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

• Intentions:

  • Degrade Ukrainian Combat Potential and Civilian Morale: RF intends to continue and intensify deep strike operations against civilian infrastructure, energy facilities, and MIC targets across Ukraine. The widespread nature of recent attacks and confirmed civilian casualties underscores this intent. The alleged use of chemical weapons (as per GUR) would represent a severe escalation of this intent, though independent verification is pending. Targeting of medical facilities in Kharkiv aligns with this strategy of demoralization and disruption of essential services. Current ballistic missile and cruise missile strikes on Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Kamianske confirm this ongoing intent. RF milbloggers are publicly stating that Dnipropetrovsk "must burn" due to it being a "hotbed of evil," explicitly stating intent to destroy Ukrainian cities. The increased density of drone attacks on Dnipro and Kamianske aligns with this intent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Achieve Tactical Breakthroughs on Key Axes: RF aims to achieve significant territorial gains, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis (Krasnoarmeysk-Mirnohrad direction) and Chasiv Yar, with secondary efforts in Zaporizhzhia and maintaining pressure in Kharkiv/Sumy. The deployment of elite units and coordinated mechanized assaults indicates a clear intention to force breakthroughs and encircle Ukrainian forces where possible. Claims of encircling Pokrovsk and UAF infantry shortages, as reported by Gazeta Wyborcza and amplified by RF milbloggers, further support the intent to achieve decisive gains on this axis. Mass movement of RF equipment towards Zaporizhzhia and Pokrovsk directions suggests an intent to reinforce or escalate offensives there. Syrsky's statement about the difficult situation on five fronts (Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia) indicates RF's multi-pronged pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Pre-position for Future Offensives: RF's intensified ISR and ELINT operations across southern and eastern Ukraine, coupled with the redeployment of strategic bomber aircraft for missile loading, signals an intent to gather intelligence for and prepare for new, potentially larger-scale ground and deep strike operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Protect Domestic Infrastructure and Maintain Internal Control: RF will continue to prioritize air defense and counter-UAS measures to mitigate Ukrainian drone attacks on its territory, while simultaneously leveraging these incidents to rally domestic support and justify further military actions. Internal security crackdowns on dissent and corruption are intended to maintain stability and project an image of effective governance. The "yellow level" drone alert in Lipetsk Oblast signifies ongoing efforts to protect domestic infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Manage Domestic Narrative & International Perceptions: RF will continue to control its internal information space, promoting narratives of military success, governmental care, and attributing all negative events to external enemies (e.g., Ukraine's link to Crocus attack). RF will exploit geopolitical events (e.g., Cambodia-Thailand conflict, Israel-Palestine recognition) to highlight global instability and position itself as a key international player, while attempting to undermine Western unity and support for Ukraine. RF will also continue efforts to portray UAF as incompetent or morally bankrupt. The polling results published by Kotsnews, claiming 78% support for continuing the SMO, indicates an intent to project strong domestic backing. TASS's propagation of Medvedchuk's claims that Ukrainians are "grateful" for strikes on TCCs indicates a clear intent to undermine Ukrainian support for mobilization. TASS's photo message featuring Medvedchuk's claim that the West will not replace Zelenskyy because he "will betray everyone" is a direct continuation of this intent to sow discord. RF milbloggers' criticism of Zelenskyy and the NABU/SAP law is a direct attempt to sow discord within Ukraine's political leadership. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Resource Mobilization & Sustainment: RF intends to continue its recruitment and mobilization efforts, including leveraging financial incentives and potentially coercing captured personnel or vulnerable populations (e.g., teenagers/women in drone assembly) to sustain its military forces and production capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Cyber Warfare: RF will likely continue to conduct offensive cyber operations targeting Ukrainian digital infrastructure to disrupt C2, logistics, and critical services, while simultaneously defending its own networks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Diplomatic Pressure: RF seeks high-level diplomatic engagement (e.g., proposed Putin-Zelenskyy-Trump meeting) to shape the conflict's resolution on its terms and potentially fragment international support for Ukraine. RF's request for a UNSC meeting on alleged disruptions of Istanbul talks indicates intent to control the international narrative. RBK-Ukraina reports that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan confirmed an "agreement in principle" for a leaders' summit in Istanbul, and RF state media is now confirming this "agreement in principle" for a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Confirmed FAB-3000 and UMPB-5 Deployment: The operational use of FAB-3000 M-54 and UMPB-5 marks a tactical adaptation to deliver greater destructive power, likely to target fortified positions and dense urban areas where UAF defenses are strongest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Shift to Larger Mechanized Assaults on Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk Axis: This represents a significant tactical shift from previous smaller, infantry-led assaults, indicating a renewed emphasis on combined arms operations and a willingness to accept higher equipment losses for potential breakthroughs. The claimed penetration into Pokrovsk and advances around Novoekonomichne demonstrate this adaptation. The use of new 152mm "Hyacinth-K" self-propelled howitzers on wheeled chassis indicates an adaptation to provide more mobile, longer-range indirect fire support for these advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Intensified Multi-Domain ISR/ELINT Ahead of Operations: The surge in Orlan-10/30, ZALA, Supercam, and Molniya UAV sorties across various axes, coupled with intensified ELINT collection and tracking of NATO ISR assets, indicates a tactical adaptation to pre-position for future operations, refine targeting, and gain battlefield transparency. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Confirmed Civilian Infrastructure Targeting in Depth: The continued and varied targeting of civilian infrastructure (residential buildings, markets, medical facilities, humanitarian bases, transportation hubs) across multiple oblasts and within RF territory, including the use of adapted anti-ship missiles (Onyx) and GABs, demonstrates a tactical adaptation to maximize psychological impact and disrupt daily life and economic activity. Current ballistic missile and cruise missile strikes on Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Kamianske confirm this ongoing tactical adaptation. Recent explosions and fires in Dnipropetrovsk and Kamianske, confirmed by RF milbloggers, further underline this. The multi-directional drone attack on Dnipro and Kamianske further demonstrates a tactical adaptation to overwhelm AD and cause widespread impact. The video from NGP Razvedka showing a large building on fire in Kamianske, and claims of AD failure in Dnipro, are indicators of this adaptation's effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Sustained Drone Attacks on Critical Infrastructure within RF: Repeated and successful Ukrainian drone strikes on industrial targets (Sochi oil depot, Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant, Tambov Powder Plant) and transportation infrastructure (Timashevsk, Peschanokopskoye railway stations) within RF territory demonstrate a tactical adaptation by Ukraine to apply pressure on RF's internal logistics, economy, and morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Emerging RF Counter-UAV Tactics & Adaptations: RF is adapting its counter-UAS tactics, including the alleged use of FPV-drones to intercept other drones ("Rocket" FPV anti-air drone, and claimed Lancet intercept by FPV-drone), development of "Rubikon" combat groups for air defense, and claims of "Gerans" learning new complex maneuvers to evade AD. This highlights a dynamic and evolving tactical competition in the drone domain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for observation of new tactics, MEDIUM for their widespread effectiveness).
• Increased Depth of Sabotage Operations in Ukraine: The SBU's prevention of dual terrorist acts and arrests of Russian agents/spotters in Mykolaiv and Kyiv indicates RF's continued tactical adaptation to internal destabilization efforts and Ukraine's effective counter-intelligence response. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Use of Anti-Ship Missiles for Ground Attack: The confirmed operational use of P-800 Onyx missiles against ground targets in Odesa is a significant tactical adaptation, demonstrating RF's willingness to use specialized naval munitions in a new role against coastal targets, diversifying their long-range strike capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Dehumanization Propaganda: The escalation of "Satanists in AFU" propaganda and the promotion of a Stalinist cult demonstrates an adaptive information warfare tactic to dehumanize Ukrainian forces and consolidate internal support for the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Use of POWs for Battalion Formation: The reported formation of a battalion of captured Ukrainian soldiers indicates a new, concerning tactical adaptation by RF to exploit POWs for combat purposes, potentially impacting international law and UAF morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Procurement of Foreign Components for Missiles: Reports of Russia using Austrian-made laser diodes for missile components indicate an adaptive and persistent effort to circumvent sanctions and sustain high-tech military production through illicit or deceptive means. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Military Robotics (Courier): The showcasing of the "Courier" ground combat robotic complex indicates an adaptive approach to integrate autonomous systems for combat, potentially allowing for remote fire support and reduced personnel exposure in high-risk areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Redeployment of Strategic Bombers: The redeployment of Tu-95MS to Engels-2 for X-101 loading suggests a tactical adaptation to prepare for specific, high-value deep strikes, potentially indicating a shift in targeting or strike cadence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Light Vehicle Integration: The widespread use and observed acquisition of "Combat Nivas" and motorcycles (e.g., for the "KatyaValya" convoy) demonstrates RF's tactical adaptation to leverage readily available, mobile light vehicles for reconnaissance, transport, and potentially rapid assault in challenging terrain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Reformation of UAF Brigades: The reformatting of the 128th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade into the 128th Separate Heavy Mechanized Brigade indicates a UAF tactical adaptation to increase offensive and defensive capabilities with heavier equipment and improved organizational structure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Internal Justice System Used for Propaganda: The ongoing investigation and conviction of General Popov, juxtaposed with General Akhmedov's award for "meat assaults," demonstrates RF's tactical adaptation of its military justice system for internal propaganda, attempting to project accountability while simultaneously rewarding questionable tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Coercion and Intimidation (Domestic): The alleged incident of police provoking a fight with an invalid's son to send him to the SVO, if confirmed, indicates a severe tactical adaptation by RF to address mobilization quotas through coercive and potentially illegal means. The RF propaganda video showing a Russian soldier pushing his injured comrade towards a Ukrainian drone, framed as a "ritual sacrifice," is a significant tactical adaptation of information warfare to further dehumanize UAF and instill fear. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• New Chinese Dual-Use Technology: Colonelcassad's highlighting of a "flying fire truck" drone from China, even if civilian, indicates RF interest in dual-use technologies and potential for future adaptation or procurement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Munitions Access (GABs/UAVs/Missiles): RF demonstrates continued, high-volume access to GABs, UAVs (including Shaheds), and various missiles (Iskander-K, Kinzhal, P-800 Onyx, X-101). The confirmed involvement of teenagers and women in Shahed assembly factories (CNN report) indicates RF's adaptive, and concerning, methods for sustaining UAV production despite sanctions. The Tambov Powder Plant strike could impact gunpowder production, but overall, RF's strike tempo suggests a robust supply chain or successful circumvention of sanctions for components. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for munition stocks, HIGH for sanction circumvention).
• Homefront Stability Efforts: RF continues to implement measures to sustain the home front, including social payments, infrastructure projects, and controlling essential goods like gasoline (proposed export ban). The reduction of the Central Bank's key rate aims to stimulate the economy, reflecting an adaptive monetary policy to manage economic pressures. However, reports of declining profits in metallurgical plants and the recall of Kia cars indicate underlying economic strains. Minpromtorg's statement about effective reorientation towards domestic products and friendly countries aims to project economic resilience, which is crucial for sustainment. The proposal to limit alcohol sales to one store per 5,000 residents indicates an attempt to manage social issues affecting labor productivity and public health. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Unit-Level Sustainment (RF): While RF milbloggers continue to appeal for donations for equipment (e.g., thermal imagers, FPV drones), suggesting gaps, the delivery of significant humanitarian aid from regional administrations (Nizhny Novgorod) indicates a parallel, organized system of support. The alleged sending of "cripples" to the front (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Sрочники) and the graphic video of a Russian soldier allegedly killing his wounded comrade, if widespread, point to severe internal sustainment and morale issues that could impact unit effectiveness. The increase in funeral companies indicates a significant casualty rate. "Два майора" posts a fundraising video for "Frontline Armor," indicating continued need for donations for RF forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for organized support, LOW for unit-level well-being, HIGH for casualties).
• Financial Stability & Corruption: RF leadership is actively combating internal corruption at various levels (e.g., arrests of officials, including alleged FSB/MoD personnel), aiming to stabilize financial flows and improve governance, though the persistence of these issues (e.g., bribery schemes) indicates ongoing challenges. The stability of the ruble and actions by the Central Bank indicate a proactive approach to managing the economy amidst conflict. The founder of iGooods food delivery service being remanded for donations to FBK indicates a continued crackdown on perceived opposition financing, aimed at maintaining financial control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• Responsive Air Operations C2: RF demonstrates effective C2 in coordinating and executing large-scale, multi-domain air operations, including missile launches from strategic aviation, GAB deployments, and widespread UAV attacks. Their ability to track and claim interception of Ukrainian UAVs over RF territory, despite some impacts, indicates functional AD C2. The current widespread missile alerts and multi-directional drone attacks indicate RF's continued capability to coordinate these strikes. However, the NGP Razvedka video claiming AD failure in Dnipro suggests localized C2 issues or an overwhelmed system in specific instances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH, but with noted local inconsistencies).
• Ground Operations C2 (Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk): The shift to coordinated company-sized mechanized assaults and claimed breakthroughs suggests effective C2 at the tactical and operational levels, enabling forces to exploit momentum and achieve localized gains. RF milbloggers' detailed maps and accounts further reinforce a narrative of controlled advances. Claims of encircling Pokrovsk due to UAF infantry shortages, as reported by Gazeta Wyborcza and amplified by RF milbloggers, further support effective RF C2 in exploiting perceived UAF vulnerabilities. The observed deployment of new 152mm self-propelled howitzers indicates effective C2 in integrating new, advanced artillery systems into frontline operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• ISR/ELINT Coordination C2: RF demonstrates strong C2 in integrating ISR assets across multiple domains to support targeting and tactical decision-making. The ability to coordinate multi-regional drone operations (e.g., from Zaporizhzhia towards Dnipropetrovsk) highlights a sophisticated C2 capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Domestic Security C2: RF maintains robust C2 over its internal security apparatus, effectively conducting counter-intelligence operations (arresting Ukrainian agents/collaborators), controlling information flow (e.g., "carpet" plans, flight restrictions), and managing responses to domestic incidents. The swift response to the Saratov explosion showcases effective emergency C2. The "yellow level" drone alert in Lipetsk Oblast further indicates ongoing domestic security C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Strategic C2: Putin's continued engagement in high-level meetings (e.g., maritime policy, unified election day with Patrushev and Kolokoltsev) and strategic projects (naval commissioning, space launches) indicates centralized strategic C2. RF's diplomatic initiatives (UNSC meeting on Istanbul talks, confirmation of agreement in principle for Putin-Zelenskyy meeting) suggest a coordinated effort to shape international discourse. The discussion about potentially scrapping the Admiral Kuznetsov, if true, would represent a significant strategic C2 decision impacting future naval force projection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Internal Military Discipline C2: While some reports suggest issues with military discipline (e.g., drunk military personnel attacking civilians, friendly fire incidents, alleged killing of wounded comrade), RF also demonstrates C2 efforts to address these through investigations, disciplinary actions, and propaganda aimed at maintaining order and morale. The interview with a captured Ukrainian commander discussing "idiocy" within UAF is an RF C2 effort to denigrate UAF military quality. The RF military court upholding the verdict against Major General Ivan Popov for fraud and forgery indicates an an effort to enforce accountability within the military, though the narrative surrounding General Akhmedov's award suggests inconsistencies. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• Cyber Operations C2: The UAF's OpsHackRussia'sDay (OHRD) operation against RF servers suggests that while RF maintains cyber capabilities, there are C2 vulnerabilities that Ukraine can exploit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Defensive Operations: UAF continues to maintain active defensive operations across all major axes, particularly on the Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and Kherson directions, repelling numerous RF assaults. Significant Russian losses are reported across these axes (172 combat engagements, 980 personnel, 2 AD systems). The liberation of Kindrativka in Sumy Oblast by the 225th Separate Assault Battalion indicates localized offensive success and strong defensive posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Air Defense (AD) & Counter-UAS: UAF AD remains highly active and generally effective, with confirmed interceptions of a significant portion of incoming UAVs (54/61 Shaheds and 9/X enemy wings downed) and successful suppression of Iskander-M/KN-23 missiles. The arrival of new Patriot batteries and additional IRIS-T systems from Germany significantly enhances UAF layered air defense capabilities. Ukrainian production of interceptor drones (aiming for 1000 per day) signals a strategic focus on scaling up counter-UAS capabilities. A reusable FPV drone intercepting a Lancet loitering munition demonstrates innovative tactical adaptation and readiness. UAF Air Force reports active engagement against new missile and UAV threats in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Dnipro. UAF Air Force reports AD is active in Zaporizhzhia, and continues to track UAVs across multiple oblasts. UAF Air Force has reported a target on Kharkiv, multiple UAVs entering Kharkiv Oblast, and explosions in the Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv. Active AD is reported in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts against these new waves of attacks. The rapid AD response in Kyiv and clearance of alarm indicate strong local AD capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Offensive Operations (Limited): UAF maintains a bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River near Krynky, successfully repelling RF counter-attacks, indicating continued offensive posture and readiness in the southern sector. STERNENKO reports Sky Hunters of the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade are stopping new Russian assaults on the Kupyansk direction, highlighting effective localized defense with offensive elements. UAF SOF (SSO A) are actively engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast, demonstrating cross-border offensive capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Drone Warfare: UAF demonstrates highly effective drone operations for ISR and precision strikes, as seen in Kharkiv (Molniya strike UAVs destroying observation posts), Zaporizhzhia (destroying over 50 Russian reconnaissance drones weekly), and in mass liquidation of Russian forces near Torske. The confirmed localization of German Vector drone production in Ukraine indicates a focus on domestic drone manufacturing and readiness. The 58th Motorized Brigade is actively producing and improving drones for targeting, logistics disruption, and personnel elimination. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Counter-Intelligence and Security Operations: SBU has successfully prevented multiple terrorist acts (Mykolaiv, Kyiv) and detained FSB agents/spotters (Kharkiv), directly mitigating RF efforts to destabilize Ukraine. GUR cyber specialists conducted a "digital strike" against the occupation administration of Crimea, destroying all data on "government" servers, showcasing advanced offensive cyber capabilities. The SBU's successful arrest of a TCC saboteur further highlights active counter-sabotage efforts. The release of hacked documents from OpsHackRussia'sDay (OHRD) further highlights active Ukrainian cyber operations and intelligence gathering against RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Training and Readiness: Videos of UAF military training (tanks, soldiers, drone technology) and adaptive training periods for new personnel suggest ongoing efforts to maintain and improve combat readiness. Zelenskyy's visits to rehabilitation centers and emphasis on veteran support highlight efforts to maintain troop welfare and morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Legal & Anti-Corruption Framework: President Zelenskyy approved a draft law strengthening law enforcement and anti-corruption bodies. The General Staff announcing an online course "Stop Corruption. Authorized Persons" in the Army+ application, and various OPG investigations into embezzlement schemes, indicate a commitment to internal reform and readiness to address systemic issues. G7 ambassadors welcoming Zelenskyy's commitment to NABU independence further strengthens the perception of internal reform. The potential postponement of the NABU bill vote due to protests and a "demarche" by deputies, as reported by Financial Times, indicates internal political challenges but also the democratic process at play. RF milbloggers' criticism of Zelenskyy and the NABU/SAP law is a negative indicator. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Force Posture: Martial law and mobilization have been extended for three months (until November 5th), indicating a sustained readiness for prolonged conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• New AD Systems: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky's statement that new air defense systems are "on the way" sets expectations for continued enhancement of AD capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Intelligence Preparedness: President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting with SVR and GUR reports on RF intentions for Summer-Autumn demonstrates a proactive approach to intelligence gathering and strategic planning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• MoD Leadership: The return of Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk as First Deputy Minister of Defense signals continuity or a strategic reshuffle within the military leadership, impacting overall posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Veteran Policy: The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's focus on veteran policy highlights proactive support efforts, aimed at long-term troop welfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:

  • Air Defense Effectiveness: High rate of enemy UAVs and missiles intercepted (54/61 Shaheds, 0/2 Iskander-M/KN-23 suppressed). Arrival of Patriot and IRIS-T systems is a major gain. Continued effective AD response to new ballistic and cruise missile threats. AD active in Zaporizhzhia, successfully neutralizing drones in Poltava. UAF Air Force reports active AD in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts against current strikes. AD activity in Kyiv is swift. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Lancet Intercept: Confirmed interception of a Russian Lancet loitering munition by a reusable FPV drone demonstrates innovative and effective counter-UAS tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Cyber Strike in Crimea: GUR cyber specialists successfully destroyed all data on Crimean occupation administration servers, a significant offensive cyber success impacting RF C2 in occupied territories. The OpsHackRussia'sDay (OHRD) operation suggests continued and successful cyber penetration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Counter-Intelligence Successes: SBU prevented multiple terror acts and detained FSB agents/spotters (Mykolaiv, Kyiv, Kharkiv), directly mitigating RF efforts to destabilize Ukraine. The apprehension of a TCC saboteur indicates continued success against internal threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Drone Warfare Effectiveness: Consistent reports of UAF drone units (MURAMASA, STERNENKO, SBU's "A" Special Operations Center, ОТУ "ХАРКІВ", 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade, 63rd Brigade, 58th Motorized Brigade, "Kryla Omegy") successfully destroying RF vehicles, positions, and personnel. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports destruction of over 50 RF reconnaissance drones weekly. Visual confirmation of a burning RF military truck after a strike by Ukrainian forces. UAF reports a ZALA Lancet drone destroyed by a Ukrainian drone in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • POW Exchanges: Successful prisoner exchange confirms ongoing efforts to return servicemen, boosting morale. Repatriation and burial of deceased POWs from the Il-76 crash is a significant step in acknowledging and honoring fallen servicemen. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Foreign Aid Arrival: Confirmed arrival of Patriot batteries and missiles from Germany, and approval of a new US aid package ($330M), ensure continued access to critical military resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Domestic Drone Production: Localization of German Vector drone production and Zelenskyy's target of 1000 interceptor drones per day indicate progress in domestic military-industrial complex. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Holding Ground in Avdiivka (Relative Success): Despite extreme pressure and high attrition, UAF defensive units are largely holding positions around Avdiivka, preventing a full encirclement thus far. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Krynky Bridgehead Expansion: Successful expansion and defense of the Dnipro bridgehead, repelling RF counter-attacks, is a tactical success in establishing a foothold on the eastern bank. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Cross-Border SOF Operations: Ukrainian SOF engagement with Russian forces in Kursk Oblast demonstrates continued offensive capability beyond Ukraine's borders. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • EU Integration Progress: The EU's final decision on "roaming visa-free travel" signifies a positive step in Ukraine's European integration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Localized Offensive Success (Sumy): Liberation of Kindrativka in Sumy Oblast by 225th Separate Assault Battalion demonstrates a successful localized offensive. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

• Setbacks:

  • Continued Civilian Casualties & Infrastructure Damage: Widespread RF missile/UAV/GAB attacks continue to cause significant civilian casualties and damage to residential buildings, markets, medical facilities, and critical infrastructure across Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts. This represents an ongoing and severe humanitarian setback. Confirmed drone strike on Kharkiv city center damaging a multi-apartment building and a medical facility nearby. Four KAABs struck Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv, hitting a civilian enterprise. New reports of civilian casualties in Kharkiv and Kamianske. Current ballistic missile and cruise missile strikes on Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Kamianske further confirm this ongoing impact. Photos from Kamianske mayor show significant damage, confirming the impact of RF strikes. New reports of wounded in Kharkiv (Kyivskyi district) and Zmiiv confirm continued civilian casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Starlink Outage Impact: The global Starlink outage, despite its cause, temporarily impacted UAF communication and drone operations across the entire front line, highlighting a persistent vulnerability. Some units still report impacts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Territorial Losses in Donetsk: RF claims of liberating Novoekonomichne, Zverevo, Yablonovka, and advances into Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) suggest significant tactical setbacks in the Donetsk Oblast, potentially threatening key logistical routes (T0406 road to Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad) and increasing pressure on UAF defensive lines. RF claims of advances in Serebryansky forestry further confirm localized territorial setbacks. RF claims to have taken Aleksandro-Kalinovo (Konstantinovka direction), indicating further localized losses. Syrsky's statement about the difficult situation on five fronts further confirms significant pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Financial Aid Constraints: The EU Commission stating that the fourth tranche of financial aid will be smaller due to Ukraine failing to implement reforms represents a financial setback that could impact long-term sustainment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Potential Financial Strain (Soldier Salaries): Zelenskyy's plan to appeal to Europe for assistance with soldier salaries indicates a growing financial constraint on UAF sustainment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Internal Corruption Issues: Persistent reports of embezzlement schemes (Lviv, Stryi RDL) and bribery (Zakarpattia Oblast) highlight ongoing internal vulnerabilities that can divert resources and undermine public trust. Reports of a teacher making fake mining threats to go remote also suggest dissatisfaction or attempts to exploit the system. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Protests against the NABU law highlight public discontent with anti-corruption measures. The potential postponement of the NABU bill vote, due to protests, signifies a setback for government legislative efforts. Polish Foreign Minister's criticism of Zelenskyy over the NABU/SAP law indicates international concern and highlights internal political challenges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Water Supply Issues: Reports of water shortages in occupied areas (Mariupol, Makeevka, Donetsk) and potential cutoffs in Mykolaiv highlight humanitarian needs that require aid or infrastructure repair. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Combat Losses (Lviv): BUTUSOV PLUS reports 12 fallen soldiers of the Royal Brigade (Lviv), indicating significant localized combat losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Localized Territorial Losses (Sumy): TASS reports nearly all of Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast, is under RF control, indicating a localized territorial setback for UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Air Defense (AD) Systems & Interceptors: Continued high demand for advanced AD systems (Patriot, IRIS-T) and interceptor missiles due to persistent RF aerial attacks. While new systems are arriving, the sheer volume of RF attacks necessitates continuous replenishment. The confirmed provision of TRML-4D and SPEXER 2000 3D MkIII radars for Ukraine from Germany is a significant enhancement to detection capabilities, but more systems and training will be required for full integration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Drones (FPV, Reconnaissance, Interceptor): High consumption of FPV and reconnaissance drones on the front lines. Units continue to appeal for donations (Zaporizhzhia 7th Division, STERNENKO), indicating that despite increased domestic production efforts, demand outstrips supply, especially for specialized types. Development of interceptor drones is critical. The 137th Battalion's gratitude for DJI Mavic 3 drones underscores the continued need for such equipment. The fundraising effort for the 112th Territorial Defense Brigade's UAV strike unit highlights an ongoing resource gap. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Counter-Drone Systems: Urgent need for more advanced EW suites and other counter-drone systems to mitigate RF's extensive use of UAVs for ISR, targeting, and strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Artillery and MLRS Ammunition: Continued high intensity of combat across all axes (172 combat engagements per day) implies a sustained high consumption rate of artillery and MLRS ammunition. Specific appeals for RPG-7 rounds show needs for close-combat munitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Medical Evacuation (CASEVAC) & Rehabilitation Resources: High casualty rates necessitate robust medical evacuation capabilities and expanded rehabilitation facilities. Zelenskyy's visits to rehabilitation centers underscore this ongoing requirement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Financial Support for Soldier Salaries: The potential need for European assistance for soldier salaries indicates a significant financial constraint and a critical resource requirement for troop sustainment and morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Anti-Corruption Measures: Continued efforts and resources are required to combat internal corruption, which diversifies funds and undermines effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Reconstruction Aid: Extensive damage to civilian infrastructure necessitates substantial reconstruction aid and resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Starlink Connectivity: While largely resolved, the Starlink outage highlights a dependency and the need for redundant or alternative secure communication channels, or additional Starlink terminals, especially for units still experiencing impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Water Supplies: Reports of water shortages in occupied areas (Mariupol, Makeevka, Donetsk) and potential cutoffs in Mykolaiv highlight humanitarian needs that require aid or infrastructure repair. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Demining Equipment: Ongoing demining efforts require sustained provision of specialized equipment and personnel to clear vast contaminated areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Manpower & Mobilization: Extension of martial law and mobilization signifies continued manpower requirements, which may face challenges from evasion or bribery schemes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Narratives:

  • "Ukrainian Aggression": RF consistently frames Ukrainian actions as "terrorist attacks" on civilian objects within Russia (e.g., Sochi oil depot, railway stations, Saratov residential building). They will leverage civilian casualties in Russia (Krasnodar train incident, Zmiiv casualties) to justify further retaliation. TASS reporting on UN concern about Ukraine's withdrawal from the anti-personnel mine convention is part of this. The "yellow level" drone alert in Lipetsk Oblast will be used to reinforce this narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • "Ukrainian Military Incompetence/Corruption": RF milbloggers and state media disseminate content attempting to discredit UAF leadership ("idiocy" within UAF, Klitschko investigation), claim defections (Sumy Oblast platoon), and highlight internal Ukrainian corruption (NABU/SAP protests). Alex Parker Returns posts videos claiming internal SBU/NABU conflicts ("Sbuшники избивают молодого антикоррупционера"), aimed at discrediting Ukrainian law enforcement and anti-corruption efforts. TASS reporting on protests against Zelenskyy's "oppression" of anti-corruption agencies in Kharkiv is part of this narrative. The current narrative around the NABU law by RF is that Zelenskyy has "spat on USA" by signing it, attempting to drive a wedge between Ukraine and its allies. MoD Russia video claims UAF command receives salaries on bank accounts, aiming to further discredit UAF leadership. Operation Z's photo message claiming 70 members of Zelenskyy's party are hesitant to vote on the NABU law due to fear of retribution is a direct attempt to exploit and amplify perceived political divisions within Ukraine. "Два майора" posts videos discussing "information distortions" and perceived issues with non-labor migration as a primary problem in Russia, implying external influences driving attempts to overthrow the government, a general narrative that reinforces a besieged mentality and frames internal issues as externally manipulated. TASS's promotion of Viktor Medvedchuk's claim of "Default in Ukraine" is a clear RF information operation to undermine Ukrainian economic stability and international trust. Voenkor Kotenok also uses rhetoric to dehumanize Ukrainian leadership. TASS's report on potential "irreparable damage" to Zelenskyy's image due to the NABU law further reinforces this narrative. TASS promoting Medvedchuk's claims that Ukrainians are "grateful" for strikes on TCCs aims to undermine mobilization efforts. TASS publishing Medvedchuk's claim that the West will not replace Zelenskyy because he "will betray everyone" is a continuation of this line of propaganda. RF Milbloggers "Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" reporting on the Polish FM's criticism of Zelenskyy for the NABU/SAP law is a new angle to exploit internal Ukrainian political divisions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • "RF Success & Liberation": Aggressively promotes claimed territorial gains (Novoekonomichne, Zverevo, Yablonovka, penetration into Pokrovsk) to project an image of unstoppable advance and impending victory. Use of drone footage showing Russian flags being raised over captured settlements. Alex Parker Returns continues to disseminate content portraying RF actions positively ("Работает, как часы. Быть добру!"). Colonelcassad posts UAF loss figures from "WarTears" project to inflate UAF casualties and bolster RF success narrative. TASS claims near complete control of Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast, for the RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • "Satanists in AFU": A new, extreme dehumanization campaign has emerged, claiming to find "Satanist-Nazis" within the AFU, supported by fabricated visual evidence. This is intended to justify extreme measures against UAF and mobilize religious/conservative domestic support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for propaganda effort, LOW for factual basis). The release of the "Azov* Brain-2" film continues the "denazification" narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • "Western Weakness/Division": RF highlights perceived splits in Western support (Trump's criticism of Macron's Palestine plan, US foreign aid cuts) and attempts to frame regional conflicts (Cambodia-Thailand) as part of a broader "global confrontation" to divert attention and demonstrate Western inability to manage global affairs. Operation Z reports that Trump likely won't impose promised tariffs on Russian oil, which is an RF information operation aimed at sowing discord within Western alliances. Trump's comments on migration in Europe ("otherwise they will no longer have Europe") could be used by RF to amplify Western internal divisions and anti-immigrant sentiment. TASS's reporting on the UK potentially recognizing a Palestinian state after a ceasefire in Gaza indicates RF's continued focus on Western internal divisions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • "Forced Mobilization/Low Morale in Ukraine": RF posts alleged testimonies from captured Ukrainian soldiers claiming forced mobilization, fear of desertion, and worsening life in Ukraine to undermine UAF morale and justify RF actions. RF milbloggers amplify Gazeta Wyborcza reports of UAF infantry shortages near Pokrovsk to support the narrative of UAF weakness. They continue to use imagery of deceased UAF personnel (Sumy Oblast) to convey a sense of high casualties and fear. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for propaganda intent, LOW for factual basis regarding "shortages"). Colonelcassad's video featuring 'Shutnik' (Joker), a returned RF POW claiming abuse, is a direct attempt to discredit UAF and rally domestic support, potentially boosting RF soldier morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • "RF Internal Resilience & Care": State media emphasizes swift responses to domestic crises (Saratov explosion, An-24 crash payouts) and anti-corruption efforts (arrests of officials) to project a capable and caring government. Celebrations of military holidays (45th VDV Brigade) and recruitment drives are used to bolster patriotic sentiment. Kotsnews polling results indicating high public support for the SMO further bolster this narrative. The handling of General Popov's conviction demonstrates an attempt to show adherence to justice, even amidst internal critique. TASS's reporting on Ghislaine Maxwell providing information on 100 individuals connected to Epstein is a distraction or an attempt to highlight internal US issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • "Crocus Attack Linked to Ukraine": RF is directly linking the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack to Ukraine, framing it as acting "in the interests of Ukraine" to further demonize Kyiv and justify military actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim, LOW for factual basis).
  • "Exploitation of Youth/Vulnerable": CNN's report on RF involvement of teenagers and women in Shahed drone assembly factories, if confirmed and widely disseminated, represents a powerful and damning narrative of RF's resource exploitation and disregard for human rights. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for CNN report, HIGH for potential exploitation in RF propaganda by UAF).
  • "Russian Military Robotics Advantage": Showcasing the "Courier" robotic complex and highlighting new "firefighting" Chinese drone systems is intended to project technological superiority and deter Ukrainian forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • "Moldovans - Amnesty": RF is attempting to project a positive image of its immigration policies by simplifying entry/work for Moldovan citizens, likely to further influence its near abroad and counter Western narratives of Russian isolation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • "Starlink Disruption by Musk for RF Advantage": TASS reports, citing Reuters, that Elon Musk ordered Starlink shutdown in Ukraine in late September 2022, allegedly disrupting Kyiv's counteroffensive. This is a clear RF information operation aiming to undermine trust in Western support and exploit perceived vulnerabilities. Operation Z also publishes an image message with the Reuters headline implying the Starlink shutdown "disrupted the AFU counteroffensive." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • "NATO Aggression": The claim that NATO "practiced a strike on Crimea" is a clear attempt to frame NATO as an aggressive actor and justify RF's actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for propaganda intent).
  • "Internal RF Mobilization Issues (Propaganda):" The БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video alleging police provoking a fight with an invalid's son to send him to the SVO is a Ukrainian information operation highlighting internal RF mobilization issues and potentially coercive practices. The Operatyvny ZSU video implying a Russian soldier sacrificed his comrade to a drone is a highly graphic and impactful piece of Ukrainian propaganda aimed at highlighting RF brutality. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

• UAF Counter-Narratives & Information Operations:

  • "RF Brutality & Civilian Targeting": UAF consistently highlights civilian casualties and damage from RF strikes to mobilize international support and expose RF war crimes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF milbloggers express frustration with RF's internal issues, like the Saratov explosion, using the narrative "Katsaps will not kill themselves, though it would be good!". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • "RF Losses & Incompetence": UAF reports daily RF personnel and equipment losses, often backed by drone footage, to demonstrate combat effectiveness and degrade RF morale. Zelenskyy's statements about Russia "getting smacked" near Pokrovsk are part of this. Syrsky's statement that "Russia pays the maximum price for its summer offensive" is a direct counter-narrative aimed at highlighting RF's unsustainable losses. Operatyvny ZSU's video "Russian millionaire inhales last free portions of air" is a likely propaganda piece targeting perceived Russian opulence and implying targeted elimination. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • "Ukrainian Resilience & Innovation": Promotes stories of adaptive AD (Lancet intercept), domestic drone production, and humanitarian resilience (girl recovering from heart transplant) to maintain internal morale and external support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • "RF Internal Weaknesses/Challenges": UAF leverages reports of RF internal issues (Starlink outage, military indiscipline, internal corruption, economic strains) to undermine RF's image of strength and stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF's OpsHackRussia'sDay (OHRD) is a direct counter-IO against RF, aiming to expose internal information. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • "Call to Action": Direct calls for public support (drone donations) and recruitment messages ("Occupiers must be killed and you can help with that!") are aimed at sustaining popular support for the war effort. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • "Sarcastic Anti-RF Culture": The "Great Russian Culture" video using combat footage sarcastically aims to undermine RF's cultural claims. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • "Professionalization & NATO Integration": UAF General Staff explicitly uses "We are a fundamentally different army than four years ago" with #NATO tags to project strength, professionalism, and alliance with Western standards. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • "War Crimes Accountability": The focus on convicting individuals involved in TCC sabotage reinforces Ukrainian legal accountability and deterrence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • "EU Integration Success": Highlighting the "roaming visa-free travel" decision with the EU is a tangible step in European integration, reinforcing political and economic ties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Veteran Support: The focus on veteran support in Zaporizhzhia demonstrates a commitment to long-term care and morale for servicemen. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Exploitation of RF Milblogger Casualties: The photo message regarding the missing RF war correspondent Filatov is a likely Ukrainian information operation designed to demoralize RF milbloggers and their audience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Dehumanization of RF: BUTUSOV PLUS posts photo messages with offensive and derogatory language towards RF, indicating an active Ukrainian information operation aimed at dehumanizing the enemy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukrainian Public Sentiment:

  • Resilience amidst Attacks: Despite continued civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from RF strikes, public sentiment appears to maintain resilience, supported by effective AD, international aid, and government efforts for recovery and rehabilitation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Frustration with Corruption: Ongoing protests in Kyiv regarding NABU/SAP reform and various embezzlement investigations indicate public frustration with perceived government corruption and lack of accountability. RBK-Ukraina reports that an expert assesses the NABU law scandal is unlikely to immediately threaten Zelenskyy's ratings but highlights underlying public sentiment. Reports of a teacher making fake mining threats to go remote also suggest dissatisfaction or attempts to exploit the system. Alex Parker Returns' video claiming Bezuhlaya was spat on highlights direct expressions of discontent. The Kharkiv rally against Zelenskyy's actions toward anti-corruption agencies reinforces this sentiment. G7 ambassadors welcoming Zelenskyy's commitment to NABU independence might positively influence public sentiment. The potential postponement of the NABU bill vote shows public sentiment is impacting legislative decisions. TASS's reporting on potential "irreparable damage" to Zelenskyy's image due to the NABU law is a negative indicator amplified by RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Impact of Mobilization: Extension of martial law and mobilization will likely continue to generate public discussion and potentially some discontent, though the focus on combating bribery in mobilization may help mitigate this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Dependence on Foreign Aid: Public awareness of the need for international military and financial aid (e.g., for soldier salaries, EU tranche reductions) will likely influence public sentiment regarding the sustainability of the war effort. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Community Spirit: Street renaming in Odesa Oblast after fallen soldiers indicates a strong sense of national identity and community support for military personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

• Russian Public Sentiment:

  • Growing Impact of Drone Attacks: Despite official attempts to downplay their impact, the increasing frequency and confirmed civilian/industrial targets of Ukrainian drone attacks within Russia (Sochi, Rostov, Nevinnomyssk, Tambov, Saratov) are likely generating public concern, flight disruptions, and a sense of vulnerability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Internal Dissatisfaction/Cynicism: Reports of corruption (high-level arrests, including alleged FSB/MoD personnel), military indiscipline (e.g., Akhmedov's award for "meat assaults"), and economic strains (e.g., GAZ 4-day week, increasing funeral companies) suggest pockets of public dissatisfaction or cynicism, though heavily controlled media limits widespread expression. An ASTRA report about a Perm activist holding a "Putin, go away!" picket indicates continued but suppressed internal dissent. The НгП раZVедка report on discussions about prosecuting children/teenagers for "nonsense" might hint at public or parental concern about stricter internal security measures impacting youth. The alleged incident of police provoking a fight to mobilize an invalid's son could further fuel public discontent. The Rostov incident with drunk military personnel attacking civilians, if widely known, could further erode public trust in military discipline. The proposal to limit alcohol sales might be a response to public health/social issues that could affect morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Fatalism/Resignation: Strelkov's statement "Do what you must - what is destined will happen" reflects a fatalistic but determined mindset among some hardliners, which may resonate with segments of the public experiencing prolonged conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Exploitation of Social Issues: RF milbloggers highlighting alleged ethnic crime and labor exploitation (Kuzbass) indicates internal social tensions that the state may struggle to manage. Increased sales of anti-alcoholism drugs suggest public health issues that could affect morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Trust in Government: The government's swift response to the An-24 crash (compensation, investigation) and the Saratov explosion (aid, investigation, day of mourning) aims to bolster public trust, despite the underlying issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Impact of Censorship: New laws on searching for "extremist materials" and VPN usage, and arrests of journalists/activists, indicate a tightening of information control, which may lead to suppressed dissent rather than genuine consensus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Support for Ukraine (Strong but Conditional):

  • Military Aid: New US aid package ($330M) and confirmed arrival of Patriot and IRIS-T systems from Germany demonstrate continued significant military support. Germany's intent to build the strongest army in Europe and provide more IRIS-T systems indicates a long-term commitment to European security, which benefits Ukraine. The confirmed provision of TRML-4D and SPEXER 2000 3D MkIII radars for Ukraine from Germany is a significant enhancement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Financial Aid (Conditional): The EU's conditionality on financial aid (requiring reforms) introduces a new constraint, highlighting the need for Ukraine to meet reform targets to ensure continued financial support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Diplomatic Engagement: Turkey's offer to mediate a Putin-Trump-Zelenskyy meeting signifies ongoing diplomatic efforts to find a resolution, though the likelihood and timing remain uncertain. RBK-Ukraina's discussion of the importance of Istanbul negotiations indicates continued focus on this diplomatic avenue. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan confirmed an "agreement in principle" for a leaders' summit in Istanbul. News of Moscow reports confirmation of "agreement in principle" for a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • International Law Enforcement Cooperation: Ukrainian and Polish law enforcement liquidating a transnational drug network demonstrates effective international cooperation against organized crime. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • EU Integration: The "roaming visa-free travel" decision is a tangible step in European integration, reinforcing political and economic ties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • G7 Support for Reforms: G7 ambassadors welcoming Zelenskyy's commitment to NABU independence underscores international support for Ukrainian reforms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

• Support for Russia (Limited/Cautious):

  • Indirect Influence: RF attempts to exploit geopolitical events (Cambodia-Thailand conflict, Israel-Palestine recognition debates) to disrupt Western unity and shift international focus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Economic Relations: The Central Bank's economic adjustments (key rate reduction) and discussions about the closed-loop economy indicate RF's efforts to adapt to sanctions and maintain economic stability, which is crucial for sustainment. Minpromtorg's statement about effective reorientation towards domestic products and friendly countries aims to project economic resilience in the face of sanctions. Trump's reported reluctance to impose tariffs on Russian oil, if true, would be a minor economic relief for RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Eurasian Alignments: Putin's satisfaction with strategic partnership with Mirziyoyev (Uzbekistan) indicates ongoing efforts to solidify relations within its sphere of influence. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's condolences to Putin are a sign of continued, albeit limited, international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Iran Nuclear Cooperation: Iran's decision to resume cooperation with IAEA offers RF a diplomatic opportunity to frame itself as a responsible actor or to highlight perceived Western hypocrisy on nuclear issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Serbia's Position: Serbia naming conditions for supporting sanctions against Russia and the Serbian Prime Minister's statement indicate a cautious approach from some European states, not outright opposition to RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

• Neutral/Other:

  • Cambodia-Thailand Conflict: The escalation of the border conflict with MLRS strikes and martial law declaration in Thailand is a significant regional development that RF is actively leveraging in its information campaigns to portray global instability. The UNSC meeting on this issue highlights international concern. New imagery of military equipment confirms the active involvement of significant military assets. Cambodia's rejection of accusations and call for peace suggests diplomatic efforts are ongoing despite the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Admiral Kuznetsov Status: The potential scrapping of the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier due to repair costs would be a significant blow to RF naval power projection and international prestige, impacting its global influence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Moldovan Migrant Policy: Putin simplifying return and work for Moldovan citizens indicates a potential effort to improve relations with Moldova or address labor needs within RF, which has geopolitical implications for Moldova's European path. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Google Lawsuit: TASS reports Google faces 65 billion ruble fines for each lawsuit in a US arbitration court, indicating economic pressure on Western tech companies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Syria - Assad: The French court's decision to cancel the arrest warrant for Bashar al-Assad could signal a shift in international policy towards Syria, potentially impacting geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East, though its direct military relevance to Ukraine is low. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• MLCOA 1: Sustained High-Tempo Offensive on Pokrovsk Axis with Deep Strikes (Confidence: HIGH)

  • Description: RF will continue to commit significant mechanized and infantry forces, supported by extensive GAB and artillery fire (including new systems like "Hyacinth-K"), to achieve operational encirclement and capture of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk). This will involve probing attacks, followed by company-sized assaults, attempting to exploit any UAF weaknesses. Concurrently, RF will launch a new, large-scale missile and UAV strike campaign targeting key infrastructure (energy, logistics hubs, MIC facilities) and civilian areas across Ukraine, especially targeting Kharkiv, Dnipro, Odesa, and potentially Kyiv, utilizing strategic bombers (Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, Tu-160) and MiG-31K-launched missiles. These strikes will aim to degrade UAF combat potential, disrupt logistics, and exert psychological pressure on the civilian population. RF milbloggers' explicit calls for Dnipropetrovsk to "burn" underscore the intent for continued and severe deep strikes. The current wave of multi-directional drone attacks on Dnipro and Kamianske, and missile strikes on Kharkiv, are the immediate manifestation of this MLCOA. This includes direct hits on Kamianske with fire, and continued UAV activity in Kharkiv and Dnipro. The ballistic missile threat from the east towards Dnipro confirms this continuation.
  • Indicators: Continued heavy shelling and GAB launches in Donetsk. Reported RF breakthroughs into Pokrovsk and claimed capture of surrounding settlements, including Aleksandro-Kalinovo. Redeployment of Tu-95MS to Engels-2. Observation of multiple strategic bombers. Continuous reconnaissance UAV activity. Past patterns of response to Ukrainian drone attacks within RF. RF milblogger reports amplifying Polish media claiming UAF infantry shortages around Pokrovsk suggest this axis remains the primary focus. Military intelligence reports to Zelenskyy about RF intentions for Summer-Autumn. Syrsky's statement about the difficult situation on five fronts. Confirmed missile trajectory through Dnipropetrovsk Oblast towards Kamyanske area. Confirmed KAAB strikes on Kharkiv's Kyivskyi district and explosions in Dnipro's suburbs. New RF strikes on Kamianske. Current ballistic missile and cruise missile strikes on Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Kamianske. RF milblogger reports of explosions and fires in Dnipropetrovsk and Kamianske. New reports of multiple UAVs converging on Dnipro and Kamianske, and continued UAV attacks on Kharkiv. Ballistic missile threat from the east. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF Objectives: Capture Pokrovsk for political and strategic gain, secure control over key logistical routes, break Ukrainian defensive lines in Donetsk, and degrade Ukrainian will to fight through sustained deep strikes.

• MLCOA 2: Containment and Elimination of Krynky Bridgehead (Confidence: HIGH)

  • Description: RF will intensify massed indirect fire (artillery, MLRS, KAABs) and airstrikes against the UAF bridgehead at Krynky to suppress and eventually eliminate it. Simultaneously, they will attempt to organize a more coordinated ground counter-attack, likely involving elements of the 22nd Army Corps, once initial command friction and morale issues are addressed. This will prioritize preventing UAF from expanding their foothold further or establishing significant logistical support across the Dnipro.
  • Indicators: Continued heavy RF shelling and airstrikes in Kherson Oblast. Reports of RF attempts to organize coherent ground responses. Appeals by UAF units for more EW, SHORAD, and counter-battery radars in the area.
  • RF Objectives: Neutralize the immediate threat posed by the UAF bridgehead, prevent any significant UAF offensive operations from the eastern bank of the Dnipro, and secure the lower Dnipro River.

• MLCOA 3: Intensified Hybrid Warfare and Information Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

  • Description: RF will escalate its hybrid warfare efforts, including continued cyber attacks (targeting Ukrainian government servers, critical infrastructure) and covert sabotage operations within Ukraine, leveraging existing networks. Concurrently, RF will intensify its information warfare, focusing on:
    1. Amplifying the "Satanists in AFU" narrative to dehumanize Ukrainian forces and rally domestic support, including new "documentary" releases.
    2. Directly linking Ukraine to terrorist acts within Russia (e.g., Crocus attack) to justify further aggression.
    3. Exploiting internal Ukrainian political divisions (e.g., Klitschko investigation, NABU protests, Polish FM criticism of Zelenskyy) to destabilize Kyiv.
    4. Projecting RF's domestic resilience and successes (economic stability, anti-corruption efforts, social programs).
    5. Exploiting global events (Cambodia-Thailand conflict, Israel-Palestine recognition) to portray Western weakness and shift international focus.
    6. Exploiting narratives of Western-induced Starlink disruptions impacting UAF operations.
    7. Leveraging international platforms, such as the UN Security Council, to present RF narratives and criticize Ukraine (e.g., UN concern over mine convention withdrawal).
    8. Exploiting internal RF social and political issues (e.g., mobilization, military indiscipline, internal dissent) to undermine public morale and create internal friction within Ukraine.
    9. Continuing to push narratives of RF control over border areas (e.g., Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast) to undermine Ukrainian sovereignty and project territorial gains.
    10. Leveraging claims that Ukrainians are "grateful" for strikes on TCCs to undermine mobilization.
  • Indicators: Recent "Satanist" propaganda, direct accusations linking Ukraine to Crocus, confirmed SBU detentions of agents in Kyiv and Mykolaiv, ongoing protests in Kyiv. Increased focus on global conflicts in RF state media. TASS reports about Elon Musk's alleged Starlink shutdown order are a key indicator of this strategy. Basurin o glavnom's UN Security Council video is a direct indicator of this intent. The release of hacked OpsHackRussia'sDay (OHRD) documents by UAF indicates an ongoing cyber/IO battle. "Два майора" videos discussing "information distortions" indicate an ongoing RF effort to shape the domestic narrative. TASS promoting Medvedchuk's claim of Ukraine's default. New RF claims of control over Yunakivka. TASS propagating Medvedchuk's claims about TCC strikes. TASS publishing Starmer's statement on Palestine recognition indicates RF's continued focus on Western internal divisions. TASS publishing Medvedchuk's claim that the West will not replace Zelenskyy because he "will betray everyone." Polish FM criticism of Zelenskyy over the NABU/SAP law. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF Objectives: Degrade Ukrainian public morale, undermine international support for Ukraine, justify RF actions, and maintain domestic stability and support for the conflict.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• MDCOA 1: Breakthrough and Encirclement on Pokrovsk Axis Coupled with Massed Ballistic Missile Strikes (Confidence: MEDIUM)

  • Description: RF achieves a decisive breakthrough on the Pokrovsk axis, potentially severing the main GLOC and encircling a significant portion of UAF forces. This breakthrough would be immediately exploited with rapid advances further west towards Dmytrov/Mirnohrad, aiming to collapse the Ukrainian defensive lines in the western Donetsk Oblast. This ground offensive would be synchronized with a massed ballistic missile strike, including Iskander-M and potentially KN-23 variants from new launch areas (e.g., northeast), targeting key UAF command and control nodes, major logistics hubs, and air defense assets across eastern and central Ukraine. The aim is to achieve a rapid, decisive operational victory in Donetsk while degrading UAF's ability to coordinate a defense. The observed ballistic missile launches on Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Kamianske are a precursor to such a massed strike. The current multi-directional drone attack and confirmed missile strikes on Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Kamianske indicate a high probability of a synchronized massed strike. Recent reports of failed AD in Dnipro further increase the risk of this MDCOA.
  • Indicators: Sustained high attrition on UAF forces on the Pokrovsk axis without significant reinforcements. Observed large-scale RF logistical preparations (ammunition, fuel) near the front. Confirmation of new ballistic missile launch positions. Rapid collapse of UAF defensive strongpoints. Reduced UAF air defense effectiveness.
  • RF Objectives: Achieve a decisive operational victory in Donetsk, significantly degrade Ukrainian combat effectiveness and C2, and force a strategic retreat.

• MDCOA 2: Expanded Ground Offensive from Northern Border (Sumy/Kharkiv) (Confidence: LOW-MEDIUM)

  • Description: Building on previous probing actions and "security strip" claims, RF launches a multi-pronged, battalion-to-regiment-sized ground offensive from Kursk Oblast into Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. This would involve armored spearheads aiming for key urban centers or logistical routes, forcing Ukraine to divert significant forces from the eastern front. The offensive would be supported by heavy GAB strikes and concentrated artillery. The recent TASS claim of RF control over Yunakivka in Sumy Oblast could be a preparatory information operation for such an offensive. Current cruise missile and ballistic missile activity into Kharkiv Oblast are likely pre-offensive softening strikes or diversions. TASS reports RF forces are advancing in three directions from Melovoe in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating a continued, albeit localized, ground effort from the north.
  • Indicators: Massing of RF ground forces (personnel, armor, artillery) along the Sumy/Kharkiv border. Construction of forward logistics depots. Increased RF tactical aviation and reconnaissance activity in the border regions. Reduced UAF ability to repel RF assaults in Kursk/North Slobozhansky directions. New groups of RF UAVs moving towards Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts from Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF Objectives: Create a new large-scale front, divert Ukrainian forces from critical eastern axes, and establish a significant "security zone" inside Ukraine's borders.

• MDCOA 3: Targeted Cyber Attack on Starlink Network (Confidence: LOW)

  • Description: Despite recent resolution of the software-related Starlink outage, RF could attempt a sophisticated cyberattack, potentially in conjunction with EW, to achieve a more prolonged and widespread disruption of the Starlink network's ground segment in Ukraine. This could severely degrade UAF battlefield communications, drone operations, and overall C2, particularly during a critical ground offensive.
  • Indicators: New, unidentified network disruptions. Significant EW activity directly targeting Starlink ground terminals. Public statements from RF that falsely attribute previous outages to their capabilities.
  • RF Objectives: Cripple Ukrainian C2 and digital infrastructure, creating battlefield chaos and exploiting communication blackouts during ground offensives.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Pokrovsk Axis Escalation: RF offensive operations on the Pokrovsk axis are likely to continue at high intensity over the next 72 hours. A critical decision point for UAF will be within the next 24-48 hours regarding the commitment of additional reserves to prevent a full encirclement or the loss of key logistical routes, especially if RF forces consolidate their claimed positions within Pokrovsk, including Aleksandro-Kalinovo. Syrsky's statement about the difficult situation on five fronts indicates this pressure point will persist.
• Massed Missile/UAV Strike: A new, large-scale RF missile and UAV strike is currently underway and highly probable to continue over the next 0-6 hours, given the observed redeployment of strategic bombers, ongoing Shahed launches from multiple directions, and current ballistic missile/cruise missile activity in Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Kamianske. UAF must maintain maximum air defense readiness and dispersal of critical assets during this period. The "red alert" across Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and new ballistic missile threat to Dnipro indicates this threat is immediate and ongoing. Confirmed explosions and fires in Dnipropetrovsk and Kamianske demonstrate this is actively occurring.
• Krynky Bridgehead Counter-Offensive: A more coordinated RF ground counter-attack against the Krynky bridgehead is likely being prepared for execution within the next 48-96 hours. UAF decision points involve reinforcing the bridgehead to hold or considering a tactical withdrawal if pressure becomes unsustainable.
• Domestic Drone Attack Response (RF): Ukraine's continued deep drone strikes on RF territory are likely to trigger further retaliatory missile attacks from RF within the next 24-72 hours. This ongoing cycle will drive RF AD adaptations and internal security measures, creating a persistent requirement for UAF to diversify targets and tactics.
• Northern Border Escalation (Sumy/Kharkiv): The current RF claims in Sumy Oblast and persistent pressure in Kharkiv (including new claimed advances from Melovoe) suggest a potential for increased ground activity in the next 72-120 hours. UAF must monitor for force buildup that would necessitate early defensive preparations or tactical adjustments.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

• GAP 1: RF Operational Reserves & Attrition on Pokrovsk Axis:
  • Requirement: Persistent IMINT and HUMINT to accurately assess RF armored vehicle and personnel attrition rates in the Pokrovsk sector. SIGINT to intercept communications regarding RF requests for reinforcements or redeployments. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
• GAP 2: RF Air-to-Air Missile "Product 180" (K77M) Deployment:
  • Requirement: ELINT to detect new radar signatures or missile launch events from RF fighter aircraft. HUMINT/OSINT from frontline reports regarding new RF air combat tactics or observed new missile types. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
• GAP 3: True Extent of Damage to RF MIC/Industrial Targets:
  • Requirement: High-resolution IMINT of the Tambov Powder Plant and Nevinnomyssky Azot industrial plant to assess the extent of damage and likely impact on RF munition/chemical production capacity. OSINT from local sources on production disruptions. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM)
• GAP 4: Composition and C2 of RF "Rubikon" AD Combat Groups:
  • Requirement: HUMINT/SIGINT to gain insight into the structure, training, and deployment of these new AD units, and their integration into RF's overall layered air defense system. IMINT to identify their equipment and typical operational areas. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM)
• GAP 5: Forced Mobilization and POW Exploitation by RF:
  • Requirement: HUMINT from returned POWs or defectors to corroborate claims of Russia forming battalions of captured Ukrainian soldiers and the use of teenagers/women in drone assembly. OSINT to monitor relevant recruitment drives or factory labor practices. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
• GAP 6: Impact of Starlink Outage on RF EW Capabilities:
  • Requirement: SIGINT to analyze whether RF EW systems attempted to exploit the recent Starlink outage or if they plan to develop new capabilities to target the network. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM)
• GAP 7: Civilian Impacts on RF from Cross-Border Attacks:
  • Requirement: OSINT monitoring of local reports, social media, and official statements in Rostov, Krasnodar, and Saratov to assess the full humanitarian, economic, and psychological impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on RF civilian populations. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM)
• GAP 8: RF "Combat Niva" and Motorcycle Unit Operational Role:
  • Requirement: IMINT and HUMINT to ascertain the specific tactical roles (reconnaissance, light assault, logistics) and scale of deployment of modified Niva vehicles and motorcycles within RF ground forces. (PRIORITY: LOW)
• GAP 9: Details of TCC Saboteur Incident and Broader Impact:
  • Requirement: HUMINT and OSINT to gather more details on the TCC saboteur case, including the extent of the plot and any links to broader RF efforts to disrupt Ukrainian mobilization. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM)
• GAP 10: RF Intentions for Northern Border Escalation (Sumy/Chernihiv/Poltava):
  • Requirement: Persistent IMINT (satellite/UAV) to detect any unusual build-up of ground forces, logistical assets, or forward-deployed air assets along the RF border regions adjacent to Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava. SIGINT to monitor for increased C2 traffic related to offensive preparations. HUMINT on border activities. (PRIORITY: HIGH).
• GAP 11: Real-time assessment of RF presence within Pokrovsk.
  • Requirement: Persistent IMINT and HUMINT to verify claims of RF units operating within the city center, identify specific units, and assess the extent of their penetration and control. (PRIORITY: HIGH).
• GAP 12: Confirmation of RF sniper activity in Sumy region.
  • Requirement: HUMINT from UAF units in Sumy region to corroborate RF claims of sniper activity and assess the impact. IMINT to identify specific sniper team locations or tactics. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 13: Details of GUR OHRD Operation.
  • Requirement: Further information from GUR regarding the scope, methods, and impact of the OpsHackRussia'sDay (OHRD) cyber operation on RF networks. (PRIORITY: HIGH).
• GAP 14: Verification of Water Supply Severity in Occupied Territories.
  • Requirement: OSINT (local reports, social media), HUMINT, and potentially IMINT (satellite imagery of water reservoirs/distribution points) to verify the severity and extent of water shortages in occupied territories like Mariupol and "DNR," and assess the impact on civilian populations. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 15: Verification of Alleged Russian Soldier Atrocities.
  • Requirement: HUMINT/OSINT to verify the claims regarding a Russian soldier allegedly killing his wounded comrade and the "ritualistic sacrifice" of a comrade to a Ukrainian drone. This includes forensic analysis of any available visual evidence and interviews with witnesses or defectors. (PRIORITY: HIGH).
• GAP 16: Assessment of Newly Acquired RF AD Radars.
  • Requirement: Technical analysis, ELINT, and HUMINT on the new TRML-4D and SPEXER 2000 3D MkIII radars being supplied to Ukraine to understand their capabilities, integration timeframes, and optimal deployment strategies. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 17: RF intent and force generation capacity for offensive operations in Sumy Oblast.
  • Requirement: Continued IMINT of RF forces along the Sumy border to detect any significant build-up, and HUMINT on local sentiment or preparations within RF border towns. Analyze force generation and deployment patterns. (PRIORITY: HIGH).
• GAP 18: Verification of RF claims regarding advances from Melovoe, Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Requirement: IMINT and HUMINT to corroborate claimed RF advances in three directions from Melovoe, specifically assessing their penetration depth and control of territory west of the Verkhnya Dvurechnaya river. (PRIORITY: HIGH).
• GAP 19: Impact of internal RF milblogger disputes.
  • Requirement: OSINT to monitor the extent and impact of public disputes between RF milbloggers (e.g., accusations against Roman Alekhin), assessing if it signifies a broader breakdown in the RF information space or morale among the pro-war community. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 20: Details of the "agreement in principle" for Putin-Zelenskyy meeting.
  • Requirement: Diplomatic and OSINT monitoring to ascertain the specifics of the agreement, including proposed agenda, participants, and potential timeframes, and assess the sincerity of RF's diplomatic overtures. (PRIORITY: HIGH).

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

• PRIORITY 1: Consolidate Pokrovsk Defenses & Counter RF Penetration.

  • Action: Immediately deploy additional ATGM and FPV drone teams to reinforce UAF units in the Pokrovsk sector, focusing on counter-armor and dismounted infantry engagement against RF breakthroughs. Prioritize artillery and MLRS fire on RF staging areas and identified follow-on echelons. Establish layered defensive positions to prevent full encirclement, leveraging urban terrain where possible. Analyze newly claimed RF gains (e.g., Aleksandro-Kalinovo, claimed penetration into Pokrovsk) to adjust defensive lines. Initiate counter-infiltration operations to neutralize any RF DRG elements identified within Pokrovsk. Leverage the newly re-formatted 128th Separate Heavy Mechanized Brigade if possible, for increased combat power. Target newly identified RF artillery systems like the "Hyacinth-K" to reduce deep fires.
  • Rationale: RF is committing significant resources to this axis. Preventing a decisive breakthrough and maintaining integrity of GLOCs is paramount to avoid a major operational setback. RF's claimed penetration into Pokrovsk requires immediate verification and response.

• PRIORITY 2: Maximize Air Defense Readiness Against Incoming Missile/UAV Strike.

  • Action: Place all national and regional air defense assets on the highest alert level. Disperse critical C2 nodes, logistics hubs, and military equipment to minimize damage. Pre-position mobile air defense units to cover likely target areas, particularly in Kyiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Kamianske. Continue rapid integration and deployment of newly arrived Patriot and IRIS-T systems, and prepare for the integration of new TRML-4D and SPEXER 2000 radars. Reinforce AD for northern regions given new UAV flight paths (e.g., towards Cherkasy and Dnipro) and for areas in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast due to incoming missile threats. Current missile and drone alerts indicate an immediate threat that requires maximum vigilance and response. Ensure maximal AD posture across Dnipropetrovsk Oblast given red alert status. Kharkiv AD should prioritize the Kyivskyi district due to repeat strikes.
  • Rationale: The observed redeployment of RF strategic bombers, multi-directional UAV attacks, and current missile activity indicates an imminent, synchronized large-scale strike aimed at degrading Ukrainian capabilities and morale.

• PRIORITY 3: Enhance ISR and Counter-Battery Capabilities for Krynky Bridgehead.

  • Action: Surge ISR assets (drones, HUMINT) to monitor RF force composition, movement, and C2 in the Krynky sector, particularly for signs of a coordinated ground counter-attack. Deploy additional counter-battery radars and target acquisition systems to rapidly engage RF artillery and MLRS targeting the bridgehead. Reinforce SHORAD units to counter Lancet and tactical aviation threats.
  • Rationale: RF efforts to contain and eliminate the Krynky bridgehead will intensify; effective ISR and counter-fire are critical to maintaining the foothold and minimizing casualties.

• PRIORITY 4: Exploit RF Internal Vulnerabilities & Information Environment.

  • Action: Actively disseminate confirmed information regarding RF internal corruption (recent arrests of officials, MoD leadership changes affecting RF's internal politics), military indiscipline (friendly fire, alleged killing of wounded comrade, Popov's conviction vs. Akhmedov's award), and the use of coerced labor (teenagers/women in drone factories, POW battalions) to undermine RF domestic morale and international standing. Counter RF dehumanization propaganda ("Satanists in AFU," "Azov* Brain-2" film, "ritual sacrifice" video) with clear, factual rebuttals and highlight the resilience and professionalism of UAF. Use verified reports of internal dissent (e.g., activist protests) to further erode RF morale. Leverage the OpsHackRussia'sDay (OHRD) information for targeted information campaigns. Highlight the RF milblogger warning against scammers preying on their own supporters to further sow distrust. Leverage internal RF incidents (e.g., Saratov explosion aftermath, public unrest, coercive mobilization tactics, and water shortages in occupied territories) to demonstrate internal instability and the negative consequences of occupation. Continue to use derogatory and offensive language for RF personnel in internal messaging to bolster UAF morale. Leverage combat losses on the RF side through "Как мух ляпалкой" style messaging. Discredit RF claims of territorial gains (e.g., Yunakivka) through verified counter-narratives. Counter RF propaganda regarding "grateful" Ukrainians for TCC strikes. Leverage RF statements about Western disunity (e.g., UK's stance on Palestine) to expose their intent to divide the international community. Actively counter RF information operations such as Medvedchuk's claims that the West will not replace Zelenskyy because he "will betray everyone," by highlighting internal Ukrainian unity and the democratic process. Leverage Polish FM's criticism of Zelenskyy over the NABU/SAP law, framing it as an attack orchestrated by RF.
  • Rationale: Effective information operations can degrade enemy morale, create internal friction, and maintain international support for Ukraine.

• PRIORITY 5: Expedite Domestic Drone Production and Counter-UAS Innovation.

  • Action: Accelerate efforts to achieve the daily target of 1000 interceptor drones. Prioritize research and development into new counter-UAS technologies and tactics, learning from successes like the FPV-Lancet intercept and the 58th Motorized Brigade's drone production efforts. Actively share lessons learned across units to rapidly adapt to evolving RF drone tactics (e.g., "Geran" maneuvers). Prioritize fundraising efforts for critical drone equipment for frontline units.
  • Rationale: Drone warfare remains a critical domain; scaling production and adapting counter-tactics are essential for battlefield dominance and force protection.

• PRIORITY 6: Mitigate Starlink Vulnerabilities.

  • Action: While the outage was software-related, ensure all frontline units have redundant communication methods and trained personnel for alternative systems. Engage with SpaceX to understand and mitigate future vulnerabilities. Prioritize the delivery of new Starlink terminals to units reporting continued impacts.
  • Rationale: Maintaining robust and resilient battlefield communications is vital for UAF C2 and operational effectiveness.

• PRIORITY 7: Enhance Northern Border Defense Posture.

  • Action: Increase ISR coverage along the Sumy-Chernihiv-Poltava border regions to detect any RF force build-up or pre-positioning. Prepare rapid response forces and strengthen defensive lines in these areas to counter any potential expanded RF ground offensive. Reinforce air defense assets in northern oblasts. Current drone activity towards Poltava Oblast from Sumy suggests this remains an an active axis. Conduct counter-reconnaissance to deny RF intelligence in Yunakivka area. Verify RF claimed advances from Melovoe in Kharkiv Oblast to adjust defensive posture if necessary.
  • Rationale: Recent UAV activity and prior "security strip" claims, now reinforced by claims of RF control over Yunakivka and advances near Melovoe, indicate a persistent, albeit lower-intensity, threat from the northern border that could escalate.

• PRIORITY 8: Leverage Diplomatic Opportunities.

  • Action: Closely monitor developments regarding the proposed Istanbul summit and other international mediation efforts. Prepare a robust diplomatic and informational strategy to present Ukraine's position and objectives in any potential negotiations, while emphasizing RF's continued aggression and lack of genuine commitment to peace. Acknowledge and potentially engage with the confirmed "agreement in principle" for a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, while maintaining a firm position on territorial integrity and sovereignty.
  • Rationale: Diplomatic engagement, even if only for information warfare, can shape international perceptions and potentially influence the conflict's trajectory.

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END REPORT