Archived operational intelligence briefing
INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)
TIME: 251600Z JUL 25
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
Ukraine General: Nationwide threat from RF missile and UAV attacks persists. Guided Aerial Bombs (GABs), including UMPB-5 and FAB-3000, remain a significant threat in frontline areas, specifically in Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. New ballistic missile threat active from the northeast and Donetsk Oblast. Operational use of P-800 Onyx anti-ship missiles against ground targets in Odesa confirmed. RF tactical aviation activity observed in southeastern direction. UAF Air Force reports 54/61 enemy UAVs and 0/2 Iskander-M/KN-23 missiles shot down or suppressed overnight. Nationwide air alarm declared due to MiG-31K launch, subsequently cleared. UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky states new air defense systems for Ukraine are "on the way." RF is preparing new missile strike on Ukraine, with 3x Tu-95MS, 4x Tu-22M3, 8x MiG-31K, 2x Tu-160 observed for potential deployment. Starlink connectivity experienced outages across the entire front line, confirmed as software-related and largely resolved; however, some units (7th Division, Zaporizhzhia) still report impacts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Odesa Oblast: Confirmed destruction of a residential 9-story building and the Pryvoz market due to RF drone attacks, with civilian casualties (1 fatality, 3 injured at Pryvoz, others unknown but likely higher). Explosion on a Ukrainian dredge ship "Delta-Lotsman" in Bystre estuary resulted in 3 deaths and injuries. Enemy reconnaissance UAV detected in Black Sea waters near Zatoka, actively being engaged by UAF assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Seven UAVs confirmed shot down. New threat of aviation weapon use in Synelnykivskyi district. New missile threat detected for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol, Kryvyi Rih, Kamyanske, Dnipro districts). Ongoing shelling of Nikopol, Myrivska, and Marhanets communities with drones and artillery; damage to residential buildings, a medical facility, and a lyceum in Nikopol confirmed. New reports indicate threat of enemy strike UAVs from the northeast in Synelnykivskyi district, extending to Pavlohrad and Samara districts. New groups of enemy strike UAVs are moving from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk. Five "mopeds" (drones) reported flying towards Dnipro from the Synelnykivskyi direction. All reported "mopeds" (drones) near Kremenchuk and Svitlovodsk are confirmed neutralized. RF launched KAABs towards southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Axis): RF sources claim significant advances: near Redkodub, Karpovka, Glushchenkovo, Novy Mir, and capture of Novotoretskoye. RF claims "fights began on the southern and southwestern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk" (Pokrovsk). MOD Russia claims Grad MLRS used against an AFU stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. UAF (MURAMASA) continues successful engagements against RF ground probes on Kostiantynivka axis. UAF Air Force reports RF launches of GABs onto Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad claims a precision FAB strike on a bridge over the Vovcha River. UAF General Staff reports clashes near Rusyn Yar, Myrolubivka, Zatyshok, Lysivka, Popiv Yar, Myrnohrad, Zvirove, Udachne, Oleksiyivka, Novoukrayinka, Mayak, Novoekonomichne, Kotlyne, Dachne and towards Pokrovsk, Pankivka, Volodymyrivka, Sukhetske. RF milbloggers "Operatsiya Z" claim continued destruction of UAF personnel near Pokrovsk. Colonelcassad posts video of FPV drone strike near Volodymyrivka. "Two Majors" milbloggers claim a breakthrough to Aleksandro-Kalinovo on the Konstantinovka direction. 2 killed, 14 injured from Russian shelling in Konstantinovka. Donetsk Oblast is expanding forced evacuation. "Operatsiya Z" claims Novoekonomichne liberated and approaching Dmytrov (Mirnohrad). TASS claims "Center" group liberated Novoekonomichne and Zverevo. Colonelcassad now claims liberation of Shevchenko and Pivdenny micro-districts in Chasiv Yar by 98th VDV, and envelopment of Zemlianky micro-districts. Colonelcassad now claims liberation of Yablonovka on the Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad posts video of alleged destruction of UAF UAV control point in Poltavka. Kotsnews reports RF advances threaten T0406 road to Pokrovsk and Mirnograd garrisons. Butusov Plus posts video showing Mirnohrad in ruins. Z комитет + карта СВО map depicts Krasnoarmeyskoye direction with claimed RF control and fortifications. Alex Parker Returns claims RF forces have secured positions in Pokrovsk. Threat of enemy strike UAVs detected in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad video shows drone footage with thermal imaging, documenting strikes on buildings, vehicles (potential armored personnel carriers and trucks), a communication tower, and targets identified as 'ПВД', 'ТАнк', 'АВТО', 'ПАТЧ-АНТЕННА', 'СИСТЕМА СВЯЗИ', 'СПУТНИКОВАЯ АНТЕННА', 'БАБА-ЯГА', with 'MARDER' designation for a vehicle. TASS reports that the liberation of Novoekonomichne by Russian fighters allows them to put pressure on the AFU grouping near Krasnyi Lyman in DNR and "seriously complicate" enemy logistics. RF Army reports cleaning up two settlements near Krasnoarmeysk in DNR. TASS reports Russian fighters improved tactical position near Petrovsky, taking about 3.5 km of the LNR administrative border under fire control. Multiple powerful explosions reported in Donetsk with RF AD response. UAF Air Force reports ballistic missile threat from Donetsk, subsequently cleared. TASS posts video claiming "liberation" of Novoekonomichne, showing drone footage of destroyed buildings and a Russian flag. TASS reports RF forces created a "fire bag" for UAF in the Yuzhny quarter of Chasiv Yar. Operational ZSU reports explosions in occupied Donetsk, implying RF "dome defense system" was ineffective, and additionally claims 8 impacts on RF base and railway infrastructure. CyberBoroshno claims successful strike on RF HQ in Donetsk. UAF struck the Zasyadko mine in Kyivskyi district of Donetsk, causing a fire in an administrative building; ASTRA reports direct hit with photos confirming significant fire and smoke plumes. Slivochniy Kapriz posts a video of aerial footage showing a village with damaged buildings and a soldier planting a Russian flag, captioned "25.07.25 Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoye." TASS reports advisor to DPR head, Igor Kimakovsky, claims RF forces expelled UAF from positions in Zelenyy Hay, DNR. Kotsnews posts video titled "Fights for Zverevo. How the village was liberated." This video shows aerial reconnaissance of a damaged settlement with destroyed buildings and damaged vehicles, confirming ongoing combat and RF claims of taking Zverevo, and indicating a threat to the T0406 road to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Starshy Edda posts video titled "Fights for Zverevo. How the village was liberated", further confirming RF advances. Z комитет + карта СВО map depicts Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk) area indicating potential RF control and fortification efforts. BUTUSOV PLUS video shows mass liquidation of Russian forces near Torske. Residents of Yenakiieve and Khartsyzk heard powerful explosion. Lower Krynka photos show smoke plume from likely impact. Butusov Plus posts videos showing HIMARS strikes on Zasyadko mine in occupied Donetsk. Colonelcassad reports RF units (including DRG) penetrating the center of Krasnoarmeysk. Rybar tactical map update confirms RF advances around Novoekonomichne towards Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. DeepState photo message suggests RF has begun assault on Pokrovsk. Colonelcassad reports RF units are fighting for control over Nikanorovka and Zatyshok. Z комитет + карта СВО map confirms RF gains around Kolodyazi, indicating continued pressure on the Lyman axis. MoD Russia congratulates 5th Separate Guards Motorised Rifle Brigade on liberation of Novoekonomichye. Kotsnews reports war correspondent Andrei Filatov went missing near Pokrovsk. Mash na Donbasse also reports Filatov under FPV drone fire. BUTUSOV PLUS reports Russian war correspondent Andrei Filatov missing after FPV drone attack near Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Cherkasy Oblast: Seven individuals, including a child, injured from RF missile attack, with casualties rising to 12. Damage to a cemetery. New threat of enemy strike UAVs from the northeast for Cherkasy Oblast. Colonelcassad posts a video alleging the strike on Cherkasy was by an Iskander-K targeting an abandoned 41st Guards Tank Division infrastructure, Hotel "Vlada" (alleged UAF personnel lodging), and garage cooperatives (alleged UAV production). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Kharkiv Oblast: RF sources claim "North" group continued creating a "security strip." First operational use of a FAB-3000 M-54 UMPK against a Ukrainian strongpoint in Lyptsi. Lyptsi confirmed fully under Ukrainian control. Positional fighting continues in Vovchansk. Kharkiv Oblast Administration reports 9 settlements struck. RF forces claimed "infiltrated UAF defenses near Melovoe, crossed the Verkhnya Dvurechnaya river, and secured its western bank." UAF Air Force reports new GAB launches onto Kharkiv Oblast. KAAB hit a multi-story building in Kharkiv, causing 41 injured (including 6 children). ASTRA and Operatyvny ZSU post videos of KAB hits on a multi-story residential building. OTU "Kharkiv" reports on successful aero reconnaissance strikes destroying enemy vehicles and positions. UAF General Staff reports clashes near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Dvorichna and towards Petro-Ivanivka. Oleg Syniehubov posts photos of returned POWs. New RBK-Ukraina reports 39 injured, 6 children. RF drone attack on Kharkiv confirmed. Fighterbomber posts video and photo implying three FAB-500 strikes on the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (ГУ МВД). ОТУ "Харків" posts new drone footage showing "Molniya" strike UAVs destroying Russian observation posts and a UAZ 'Bukhanka'. Enemy strike UAVs detected on the eastern outskirts of Kharkiv Oblast, course west. Likely reconnaissance UAVs on the western outskirts of Kharkiv, possible AD engagement. UAV in Balakliya area, course southwest. TASS reports RF forces inflicted strikes on a UAV control point, manpower, and armored vehicles of UAF in Kharkiv Oblast using "Grad" MLRS. UAF Air Force confirms GAB launches on Kharkiv from the northeast. Oleg Syniehubov reports 5 casualties remain in hospitals from yesterday's Kharkiv attack, now 6 injured from KAAB strike. MoD Russia posts video claiming a Grad MLRS crew of the 44th Army Corps destroyed UAV command posts, manpower, and armored vehicles of AFU units in a forested area in Kharkiv direction. SBU detained a Russian spotter in Kharkiv, who reportedly expressed satisfaction with GAB attacks on the city, claiming many people were "torn apart." UAF Air Force reports KAAB incoming on Kharkiv. RBK-Ukraina reports one casualty and six injured in Kharkiv due to a KAAB strike on a medical facility in Industrialny district. Colonelcassad posts video of a burning building in Kharkiv, attributed to recent strikes. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Zelene, Petro-Ivanivka and Kamyanske. Oleg Syniehubov reports 12 casualties in Kharkiv, 6 of whom are in hospital. Colonelcassad reports new impact in Kharkiv. NgP raZvedka reports "good news from Kharkiv direction." ASTRA reports a KAAB strike on a tuberculosis dispensary in Kharkiv, injuring 12. RF milblogger claims Asian mercenaries, including women, arrived in Kharkiv. Oleg Syniehubov posts photo messages showing the consequences of the RF strike on the Industrialny district of Kharkiv, including a destroyed hospital room and damaged vehicle. ASTRA photo messages confirm the consequences of the RF aviation bomb on a hospital in Kharkiv, showing extensive damage to a room, debris, and humanitarian aid supplies. The number of injured has risen to 14, with three people unaccounted for. Oleg Syniehubov reports that information about people under the rubble in Kharkiv's Industrialny district was not confirmed. Operatyvny ZSU reports the number of injured in the Kharkiv attack has increased to 17. UAF Air Force reports GAB launches on Kharkiv Oblast. Oleg Syniehubov posts photos celebrating medical workers in Kharkiv. Emergency rescue operations concluded at Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 48-year-old woman injured in Orikhivska Hromada. RF Milbloggers claim RF forces "liberated Kamyanske" and are "storming Plavni, advancing further." Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration confirms continued RF strikes on a university sports hall. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV heading towards Zaporizhzhia from the south. UAF General Staff reports airstrikes at Mala Tokmachka, Prymorske, Malokaterynivka, Mahdalynivka. Clashes reported near Mala Tokmachka (Orikhiv direction) and Bilohirya (Huliaippole direction). TASS reports RF forces advancing north from Kamyanske towards Stepnohirsk. New RF milblogger video shows reconnaissance and destruction of AFU vehicles in Zatyshye. Z Committee + SVO Map milbloggers post a tactical map of Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating claimed advances towards Plavni. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports defenders destroy over 50 Russian reconnaissance drones weekly. The AFU Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovats Oblasts. Two Majors post a video from Zaporizhzhia front, showing drone footage of explosions on targets with a Ukrainian flag overlay and Russian insignia. Colonelcassad posts new map claiming RF advances near Kamyanske and Plavni. RF milblogger "Operatsiya Z" posted drone footage showing strikes on buildings and structures in a populated area. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected north of Zaporizhzhia city, suggesting continued ISR. New groups of enemy strike UAVs are moving through Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk. Five "mopeds" (drones) reported flying towards Dnipro from the Synelnykivskyi direction. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports the air raid alert has been cleared. UAF Air Force confirms GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a 64-year-old woman severely wounded in Stepnohirsk due to enemy attack. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a 63-year-old man killed in Polohivskyi Raion due to enemy attack. STERNENKO reports enemy activated offensive operations in Zaporizhzhia direction, near Stepnohirsk, with tactical advances. Воин DV posts video claiming liberation of Volnoye Pole by Vostok group and 5th Army storm units, and shows SAU "Dana" firing. TASS reports a Ukrainian UAV dropped a munition on the parking lot near the Zaporizhzhia NPP, damaging 7 civilian vehicles, but the station is operating normally and security is not compromised. Mash na Donbasse posts photos confirming a Ukrainian UAV dropped a munition near Zaporizhzhia NPP. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports RSZO strikes on Energodar, advising citizens to take shelter. UAF General Staff reports airstrikes at Zaliznychne of Zaporizhzhia region. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Stepnohirsk. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports fields are partially mined and occupied, with only 370k hectares harvested vs 2M previously. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports air raid cleared, but missile threat remains. Kotsnews reports Russian army approached Stepnohirsk. Colonelcassad reports strike on UAF temporary deployment point (ПВД) on Khortytsia Island using Geran and Harpy loitering munitions. TASS reports 1 killed, 2 injured in Energodar due to UAF artillery shelling. Two Majors video message depicts a vehicle equipped with a missile launcher and soldiers preparing for launch, captioned "Запорожский фронт". DeepState reports enemy continues to consolidate positions in Kamyanske and conduct assault operations towards Stepnohirsk. STERNENKO posts video showing increased RF activity on Zaporizhzhia direction. Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 posts a video of two Ukrainian soldiers from the 7th Division, Zaporizhzhia, appealing for donations for aerial reconnaissance drones and Starlink, citing inability to fight effectively without them. Starlink communications in the region remain impacted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Kryvyi Rih: Situation assessed as controlled. Oleksandr Vilkul shares photos from an educational facility and road construction, and of children of servicemen attending a summer camp. Oleksandr Vilkul reports 78km of heat pipelines being replaced and other infrastructure projects. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Mykolaiv Oblast: RBK-Ukraina reports "Russians attacked Mykolaiv with drones overnight." Significant fires. Dnevnik Desantnika claims RF forces "destroyed a Bayraktar UAV production facility at the Equator factory" (CONFIDENCE: LOW). SBU prevented a dual terrorist act near the regional TCC. RBK-Ukraina reports a Russian drone attacked a Norwegian humanitarian organization's base. UAF General Staff reports airstrikes at Mykolayivka of Kherson region. UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in Mykolaiv Oblast, in the southern region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for drone attacks/impact, SBU operation, humanitarian base attack).
Sumy Oblast: UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) near Bilopillia and a reconnaissance UAV near Lebedyn, both heading southeast. UAF Air Force reports RF launches of GABs onto Sumy Oblast. Reconnaissance UAVs reported on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. UAF General Staff reports repelled 12 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky direction. Colonelcassad publishes drone footage showing strikes. Vooin DV posts video of an FPV drone strike on a Ukrainian Forces pickup truck. Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 Shahed drones flying towards Sumy. UAF Air Force reports new GAB launches onto Sumy Oblast. Operatyvny ZSU posts images of "Sumy attackers." STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast (Khotin), heading southwest. UAF Air Force reports an enemy UAV (Shahed) on the northern outskirts of Shostka. UAF Air Force reports threat of enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast from the north, currently flying south. UAF Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs near Bilopillia, heading south. New groups of enemy strike UAVs reported on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, course west/southwest. RBK-Ukraina reports a frontline community in Sumy Oblast was attacked, with one fatality near Znob-Novhorodske. "Two Majors" purports to show the 155th Separate Guards Naval Infantry Brigade operating in the Sumy direction. UAF Air Force reports new Shahed drones moving towards Sumy city from the northeast. UAF Air Force reports "Konotop! To shelter!" and fast-moving targets in Sumy region heading west. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in southern Sumy Oblast. НгП раZVедка reports "Good news from Sumy direction." Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages and text regarding a "Sumy columbarium" and "Closing of America" in Ukraine, likely propaganda. UAF Air Force reports RF launches of GABs onto Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) over Sumy city. Colonelcassad posts video of a captured Ukrainian serviceman (Chernets Vasyl Alekseevich, 22.07.1985, 156th Separate Mechanized Brigade) near Yunakivka, who states he was mobilized, feared desertion, and observed life worsening since Maidan. UAF Air Force reports UAV in the Sumy suburbs. UAF General Staff reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 25 Russian army assaults yesterday in Kursk and North Slobozhansky direction. TASS reports a UAF platoon defected from positions near Yanvarskoye (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) and attempting to illegally export weapons from Sumy Oblast to other regions (CONFIDENCE: LOW). UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that CNN claims Russia is involving teenagers (from 15 years old) and women in "Shahed" drone assembly at their factories. OPG reports investigation opened into murder of 17-year-old girl, showing local authorities are addressing internal crime. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition posts photo messages of "landscapes of the Sumy borderland" showing damaged rural areas. Colonelcassad claims a Russian armored vehicle was destroyed near Korchakivka in Sumy region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for drone activity, GAB launches, UAF AD; HIGH for CNN report; MEDIUM for RF armored vehicle claim).
Kherson Oblast: RF claims aviation strike on a UAF HQ in Kherson. GAB launch on Kherson from Temporarily Occupied Territory (TOT). STERNENKO also reports strikes on Kherson. Reconnaissance UAVs reported on Kherson Oblast. UAF General Staff reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Lvove and repelled 9 Russian army assaults. Vooin DV posts video claiming a substation explosion in Kherson. Voenkor Kotenok posts video implying capture of a "Zhdun" (collaborator/spotter). New RF milblogger video shows aerial view of an urban environment labeled "Kherson. Works group ROY," showing an explosion. Basurin o glavnom posts video of FSB detention and interrogation of a man in Krasnodar Krai for alleged collaboration and photography of military facilities, as well as a video of the detention of a "spotter" in Kherson Oblast. New videos from Colonelcassad captioned "FSB of Russia in Kherson region stopped illegal activities of a Russian citizen involved in state treason" show an individual admitting to photographing government facilities and checkpoints in Kherson. RBK-Ukraina reports a combined RF attack on Dniprovskyi district of Kherson. Two Majors posts new drone footage from Kherson. RBK-Ukraina reports RF dropped explosives from a drone on an ambulance crew in Dniprovskyi district of Kherson. UAF General Staff reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 5 Russian army assaults yesterday in Kherson direction. Colonelcassad reports a powerful impact and rising smoke in Kherson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Other Eastern Axes: UAF General Staff reports clashes near Stepova Novoselivka, Borivska Andriyivka, Holubivka, Zahryzove, Novoplatonivka (Kupyansk direction); Hrekivka, Zelenyy Hay, Serednye, Shandryholove, Dronivka, Novyy Mir, Karpivka, Kolodyazi, Shypylivka and towards Druzhelubivka, Serebryanka (Lyman direction); Hryhorivka (Siversk direction); Chasiv Yar, Stupochky and Bila Hora (Kramatorsk direction); Toretsk (Toretsk direction); Zaporizhzhya, Zirka, Piddubne, Oleksandrohrad, Shevchenko, Maliyivka, Temyrivka, Voskresenka and Vilne Pole (Novopavlivka direction). New RF milblogger photo from Kupyansk direction near Radkovka. STERNENKO reports Sky Hunters of the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade are stopping new Russian assaults on the Kupyansk direction. Z комитет + SVO Map milbloggers post a tactical map of Novopavlovskoe direction showing occupied territories. UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction. Colonelcassad posts satellite imagery of UAF engineering structures in Kramatorsk district, construction began June 2025. Rybar provides tactical maps of the Kupyansk direction, with a new video analyzing the advance towards Belaya Gora and Shcherbinovka, confirming Russian advances south of Konstantinovka and push into central Yablonevka, securing areas south of Yablonevka, and fighting in Shcherbinovka. It also indicates an assault on the eastern flank towards Kurdyumovka and Ozaryanovka, and a successful advance to the western bank of the Seversky Donets-Donbas canal. Voenkor Kotenok posts a map of Pokrovskoye (Krasnoarmeyskoye) direction. DeepState reports map updated. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday at South Slobozhansky(Kharkiv) direction near Vovchansk, Zelene, Petro-Ivanivka and Kamyanske. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Kupyansk direction near Stepova Novoselivka, Zahryzove, Kupyansk, Zelenyi Hai and towards Velyka Shapkivka. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Lyman direction near Hrekivka, Novyy Myr, Yampolivka, Torske, Serebryanka, also towards Dronivka, Shandryholove, Cherneschyna, Serednye. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Sieversk direction near Hryhorivka and Pereyizne. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Kramatorsk direction near Mykolayivka and towards Bila Hora. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Toretsk direction near Dyliyivka, Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, towards Pleschiyivka, Oleksandro-Shultyne and Katerynivka. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Novopavlivka direction near Piddubne, Maliyivka, Yalta, Voskresenka, towards Temyrivka and Oleksandrohrad. Vooin DV posts drone footage of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade destroying UAF transport, UAV control point, and artillery in the Yanvarskoye area. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports 63rd Brigade's drone unit eliminated 23 enemy personnel near Torske. Slivochniy Kapriz posts photo and video messages on Kupyansk-Tishchenkovka direction. Rybar and Two Majors post photos of the claimed liberation of Novoekonomichne, confirming RF advances. Воин DV posts video showing destruction of a 122-mm D-30 towed howitzer. Butusov Plus posts regarding RF intent to control Siversky Donets canal. Colonelcassad reports units are fighting for control over Nikanorovka and Zatyshok. Z комитет + карта СВО publishes a tactical map indicating RF control over Kolodyazi, further supporting RF claims of localized advances in the Lyman direction. Два майора claims Aleksandro-Kalinovo (Konstantinovka direction) is "ours," with drone footage showing captured soldiers, damaged buildings, and a destroyed AGS. BUTUSOV PLUS video shows UAF drone operator targeting Russian vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Poltava Oblast: RBK-Ukraina reports an enemy drone fell in Poltava Oblast due to air defense work. UAF Air Force reports a reconnaissance UAV on the border of Kharkiv and Poltava Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports threat of enemy strike UAVs from the northeast. UAF Air Force warns of threat to Kremenchuk and Svitlovodsk from drones. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 3 Shahed drones over Kremenchuk/Svitlovodsk and 1 from Cherkasy towards Kremenchuk. New high-speed target detected on the northeastern part of Poltava region towards Kremenchuk. Explosions reported in Kremenchuk area. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports drones near Kremenchuk are "minus." RF milblogger "НгП раZVедка" reports "Good news from Poltava Oblast," which may indicate successful RF strike activity or UAF setbacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Ternopil Oblast: RBK-Ukraina reports a grenade explosion in an apartment building resulting in two fatalities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Russia:
Syria: Rybar notes a "request from Damascus." Colonelcassad posts multiple videos of alleged ethnic cleansing in Es-Suwayda province, Syria. The videos show nighttime confrontations, a masked individual smashing a storefront, and military personnel apprehending civilians with sounds of gunfire and "Allahu Akbar." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Black Sea Region: Rybar reports a "massive UAV raid." Arkhangel Spetsnaza refers to "resumption of attacks in the Black Sea." Putin states that plans to create modern naval forces will be fully implemented. Kotsnews posts video of "Iulyasky Shtorm" naval exercise involving Northern, Pacific, Baltic Fleets and Caspian Flotilla, demonstrating fleet changes. TASS posts video claiming TOF forces during "July Storm" exercises conducted a missile strike on targets in the Sea of Japan, showing naval vessels and ground-based missile systems. MoD Russia posts video of "July Storm" exercises, showing naval vessels, missile launches and submarine operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Kyiv: SBU prevented a terrorist attack in a cafe in central Kyiv, apprehending a female suspect. Air raid alert announced and cleared. Israeli early warning system for air threats became operational last night. KMVA reports a meeting with International Monetary Fund representatives. Protests under the Franko Theater against law №12414 regarding NABU continue for a third day. Operation Z posts video of protests in Kyiv demanding resignation of Zelenskyy and Yermak. Kyiv has introduced restrictions on cargo movement due to heat. SBU detained former Head of Kyiv City State Administration department Svitliy, suspected of embezzling funds for seriously ill. Office of the Prosecutor General reported suspicion to two heads of Lviv district administrations for embezzling 1.7M UAH during missile attack liquidation. Air raid alert declared due to MiG-31K launch, subsequently cleared. Zelenskiy / Official and KMVA posts videos of Zelenskyy visiting rehabilitation centers. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a young girl in Kyiv is recovering after a heart transplant during the July 10 missile attack, highlighting the continued civilian impact and resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Estonia: RBK-Ukraina reports Estonia is sounding the alarm about Russia moving EW systems closer to NATO. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
New Tactical Development - Lancet Intercept: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet loitering munition. Два майора posts a video analyzing Ukrainian claims. Шеф Hayabusa posts video of intercept. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - visually plausible and multiple sources).
New RF Naval Commissioning: MoD Russia posts video of Putin participating in a ceremony for raising the naval ensign on the 'Knyaz Pozharsky' nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
RF Information Operation - "Satanists in AFU": Colonelcassad posts video and multiple photos, including ritualistic items and a pentagram tapestry, with the caption "Satanists in the AFU. Nothing new." Операция Z disseminates "Военкоры Русской Весны" content claiming Russia banned "Satanist-Nazis" with accompanying images and videos of occult-like objects. Basurin o glavnom publishes a video and photos of this alleged discovery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for the propaganda attempt, LOW - for factual basis).
RF Information Operation - "Chemical Weapon Use": Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video of GUR emblem with text overlays "NOW I WILL POISON WITH GAS" and "The occupiers continue to use chemical weapons." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for the GUR message, LOW for independent verification).
New US Aid Package to Ukraine: RBK-Ukraina and Operatyvny ZSU report US approval of a new military package for Ukraine worth $330 million, including air defense (PPO) and self-propelled artillery units (SAU). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports the US approval. Operatyvny ZSU reports the first Patriot battery and missiles from Germany have arrived in Ukraine. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the arrival of a Patriot system and interceptor missiles from Germany. RBK-Ukraina reports Patriot system and additional missiles have arrived in Ukraine. Kotsnews posts photos confirming Germany transferred a Patriot system to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Starlink Outage: Operatyvny ZSU reports that Elon Musk stated Starlink operations will be restored soon. Confirmed Starlink outage affecting communication along the entire front line. Operation Z reports the global Starlink outage was largely resolved within 2.5 hours and was related to software issues, according to SpaceX VP Michael Nichols. Rybar posts photo message about Starlink outage. Operatyvny ZSU reports Elon Musk ordered Starlink shutdown during 2022 counteroffensives. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Elon Musk ordered Starlink shutdown during the 2022 Ukrainian counteroffensive, according to Reuters. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Israel-Palestine Recognition: Israel condemns France's decision to recognize Palestine as a state, viewing it as "a reward for terror" and a threat to its existence, according to Netanyahu. RBK-Ukraina reports Rubio did not support Macron regarding his plans to recognize Palestine as a state. Operation Z posts information regarding the split in the West due to US/Israel criticism of France for recognizing Palestine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Ukraine Internal Political/Security: RBK-Ukraina reports that Yaroslav Rushchyshyn, a People's Deputy from Lviv, died in a car accident. RBK-Ukraina photo messages show reactions from "Holos" faction deputies. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos showing public protests against the NABU/SAP reform bill. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video of President Zelenskyy stating that everyone with access to state secrets, including in NABU, SAP, DBR, and National Police, must undergo lie detector tests. Office of the Prosecutor General reported suspicion to two heads of Lviv district administrations for embezzling 1.7M UAH during missile attack liquidation. Air raid alert declared due to MiG-31K launch, subsequently cleared. Zelenskiy / Official and KMVA posts videos of Zelenskyy visiting rehabilitation centers. RBK-Ukraina reports Turkey's President Erdogan will offer Putin and Trump a meeting in Istanbul to discuss the war in Ukraine, highlighting ongoing diplomatic efforts for a resolution. Operatyvny ZSU reports the EU Commission speaker, Guillaume Mercier, stated that the fourth tranche of financial aid to Ukraine will be smaller than planned because Ukraine failed to implement 3 of 16 promised reforms. Office of the Prosecutor General reports a scheme involving a female official from Stryi RDL and her husband, resulting in over 2 million UAH in losses on the "Municipal Nanny" state program. STERNENKO reports Odesa mayor Trukhanov fined 4.8 million UAH for illegal gambling advertising. RBK-Ukraina reports the first fine for illegal casino advertising on Telegram. Anna Skorokhod claims Ukrainian authorities are preparing a criminal case against Kyiv Mayor Klitschko. Colonelcassad confirms Anna Skorokhod's claim. Alex Parker Returns posts a propaganda photo claiming a Ukrainian collaborator (Alexey Gerasimov) attempted to join UAF, was imprisoned, and then exchanged back to Russia and now faces treason charges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Russia Internal Security: Igor Artamonov (presumably an official) issues a warning about a UAV attack threat in Yelets and Yelets district. TASS reports that a "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) has been introduced in North Ossetia and other regions of the North Caucasus Federal District. TASS reports temporary flight restrictions introduced in airports of Vladikavkaz, Grozny, Magas, Mineralnye Vody, Nalchik, Stavropol, Sochi, and Tambov. TASS reports Moscow court arrested businessman Moshkovich's bank accounts (approx. 3 billion rubles). FSB reports detention of co-conspirators of Ukrainian call centers in 4 regions. TASS reports a man detained in Cherepovets who sold data on 27,000+ Russian citizens to Ukrainian call centers. TASS reports 20 people arrested in Russia on a remote fraud case, with FSB claiming they were supervised by Ukrainian call centers. Sever.Realii reports 20 people arrested in Russia for remote fraud, FSB claims they were overseen by Ukrainian call centers. TASS reports Federation Council approved law on prosecutor's right to suspend monetary operations. ASTRA reports Federation Council approved law banning films discrediting traditional Russian values. Khabarovsk Krai Police report real responsibility for "virtual jokes," likely related to online dissent. TASS reports individual sentenced to 17 years for preparing terror attack in Maykop temple. Putin increased the maximum штатная численность (staffing level) of the central apparatus of the RF Ministry of Internal Affairs to 7,110 people. Putin simplified the possibility for Moldovan citizens who previously had not regulated their legal status in the Russian Federation to return to Russia. Putin allowed Moldovan citizens to work in the Russian Federation until October 2026 without a patent, provided they undergo fingerprinting and medical examination. MVD Germany has confirmed the suspension of humanitarian visas for Russians and Belarusians, signaling a tightening of international travel restrictions for RF citizens. ASTRA reports a Russian activist living in Armenia cannot leave the country due to an extradition request, indicating internal security challenges and international cooperation issues. TASS reports Dmitry Kolezev, journalist and blogger, added to list of terrorists and extremists. Moscow News reports Sberbank reducing rates on mortgages and consumer loans. TASS reports Sberbank reducing mortgage rates by 2% and consumer loans by 1-2%. TASS reports deputy head of Khimki municipality, Irina Zhdankina, placed under house arrest for large-scale bribery. Kotsnews reports on a civilian stabbing incident in Yevpatoria, Crimea, that led to a fatality and claims the perpetrator was linked to Wahhabism. Rybar posts a video message about alleged ethnic crime and labor exploitation in Kuzbass, specifically mentioning Tajiks and Uzbeks, and the organization 'Bozkurt'. TASS reports that the law on fines for searching extremist materials will not affect most Russians, according to Fadeyev. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Iran Nuclear Program: WSJ reports Iran decided to resume cooperation with IAEA on its nuclear program. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
US Foreign Aid: RBK-Ukraina reports Trump signed a law canceling $9 billion in foreign aid and public broadcasting. Operation Z reports Trump again allowed for large-scale secondary sanctions against Russia and wants nuclear arms talks with Moscow. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports US to transfer $180M in AD and related equipment. RBK-Ukraina reports Trump did not rule out secondary sanctions against Russia. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Trump did not rule out secondary sanctions against Russia within 50 days. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Armenia Internal Politics: TASS reports Armenian Union President Ara Abrahamyan states Pashinyan's call to seize Catholicos Garegin II's residence devalues the Armenian Apostolic Church and is a strategic mistake. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Operational Summary (RF): Два майора posts a morning summary for 25 July 2025. Рыбарь posts a chronicle of the Special Military Operation for 24 July. "Two Majors" posts an analysis regarding Rybar, indicating continued milblogger activity. Colonelcassad publishes a chronicle of strikes on Ukraine from July 24-25, 2025. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition posts video of Russian flag raised over Novoekonomichne. TASS reports Belousov stated RF forces confidently advancing on October direction and improving position. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
RF Space Launch: TASS reports launch of Soyuz-2.1b with two heliogeophysical satellites from Vostochny Cosmodrome. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Serbia: RBK-Ukraina reports Serbia named conditions for supporting sanctions against Russia. TASS reports Orban claims Ukraine continues to lose the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Germany: RBK-Ukraina reports Germany wants to create the strongest army in Europe, with up to 40,000 new fighters annually. RBK-Ukraina reports Ukraine will receive another IRIS-T from Germany. Operatyvny ZSU confirms Ukraine will receive an 8th IRIS-T from Germany. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms Germany is preparing to transfer another IRIS-T SLM system, reiterating continued strong support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Mariupol: Mash на Донбассе posts images showing the drying up of the Starokrymske Reservoir, which supplies Mariupol with water. Mash на Донбассе video shows two individuals loading a car with paving tiles, reported as "super-economic thieves" in Mariupol, suggesting local law enforcement issues in occupied territories. Mash на Донбассе reports crowd of residents in Makeevka gathered for water. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Crimea: GUR cyber specialists conducted a "digital strike" against the occupation administration of Crimea, destroying all data on "government" servers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Western Aid to Ukraine: Operatyvny ZSU reports the first Patriot battery promised by Trump, along with missiles, has arrived in Ukraine, citing The Telegraph. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the arrival of a Patriot system and interceptor missiles from Germany, citing The Telegraph. RBK-Ukraina reports Patriot system and additional missiles have arrived in Ukraine, citing The Telegraph. Kotsnews posts photos confirming Germany transferred a Patriot system to Ukraine. RBK-Ukraina reports Polish Foreign Minister influenced restoration of Patriot supply. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Russia Production of Missiles: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russia plans to use Austrian-made components for missiles, showing a document from TRV-engineering. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a news article indicating laser diodes from Vienna-based company were deceptively routed to Russia for missile components. Colonelcassad reports that the enemy (Ukraine) claims Russia has started using a new air-to-air missile, "Product 180" (K77M), indicating potential new RF air combat capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Ukraine Internal Investigations: The Office of the Prosecutor General reports that Ukrainian and Polish law enforcement liquidated a transnational drug network, seizing hundreds of kilograms of drugs. Office of the Prosecutor General reports a large-scale abuse by forestry officials in Lviv region, with damages over 42M UAH. Office of the Prosecutor General reports exposure of a scheme in Stryi RDL leading to over 2 million UAH in losses on the "Municipal Nanny" state program. Office of the Prosecutor General reports initiating a criminal investigation in Lviv Oblast, following an image of children participating in military training, for potential violations of child protection laws, indicating an internal security review. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
RF Military Equipment: Colonelcassad posts video of "Niva" pickups supplied to troops by MoD. Filolog v Zasade posts photos of military awards/documents. Fighterbomber claims 4 Patriot launchers and an AN/MPQ-65 radar destroyed over the past week (CONFIDENCE: LOW). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for equipment/documents).
RF Presidential Statements: TASS reports Peskov casts doubt on possibility of Putin-Zelenskyy meeting before end of August. TASS reports Peskov states a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy must finalize the settlement in Ukraine and fix agreements. TASS reports key statements from Peskov. TASS reports Trump allowed for a tripartite meeting with Putin and Zelenskyy but notes it should have happened three months ago. STERNENKO reports Trump's comment about a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin: "It will happen, but it will happen in 2 or 3 months." RBK-Ukraina also reports Trump's comments on the meeting. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Trump's comments on a trilateral meeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
Neutral: Alex Parker Returns posts images implying the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier is beyond repair and will be sold or scrapped, based on statements from VTB bank head. Alex Parker Returns posts video of an individual in camouflage speaking about the war. BUTUSOV PLUS posts a video showing a cemetery with numerous graves decorated with Russian flags. TASS reports Matvienko welcomed the Central Bank's reduction of the key rate to 18%. WarGonzo video shows a media summit in Kamchatka. ASTRA photo message shows a social service center, likely related to reintegration programs for veterans. TASS reports Irina Volk stated Russia will not improve mechanisms for allowing people over 60 to drive, a minor domestic policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
New Intelligence:
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
UAF: Air defense (AD) remains on high alert nationwide, actively engaging and responding to missile and UAV threats (7 UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk, 90 of 103 RF UAVs downed overnight, plus 1 cruise missile; now 54/61 enemy UAVs and 0/2 Iskander-M/KN-23 suppressed). Emergency services are actively responding to significant civilian infrastructure damage and casualties. UAF General Staff provides updated RF loss figures and situational reports (172 combat engagements, 980 personnel, 2 AD systems). Ukrainian units continue fundraising for equipment. Ukrainian forces (MURAMASA, STERNENKO) continue successful drone strikes. Coordination Staff for POWs confirmed a successful prisoner exchange. Zelenskiy / Official reports Russia launched 103 attack drones and 4 missiles overnight. DSHV confirm return of paratroopers. RBK-Ukraina reports Ukraine is scaling up production of explosives. General Staff announces "Ballistics" (armor/equipment manufacturer) as a new partner in "Army+" program. General Prosecutor's Office reports detention of a deserting serviceman for attempted robbery. Oleg Syniehubov posts photos of returned POWs. President Zelenskyy approved a draft law strengthening law enforcement, anti-corruption bodies, and protecting them from Russian influence. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts drone footage demonstrating weekly destruction of over 50 Russian reconnaissance drones. STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF (SSO A) engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a new ballistic missile threat from the northeast. Butusov Plus posts videos from SBU's "A" Special Operations Center, claiming over 2100 Russian soldiers eliminated in less than a month through industrial-scale drone operations. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukraїni post video of drone strikes by 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade. ОТУ "ХАРКІВ" posts new drone footage showing "Molniya" strike UAVs destroying Russian observation posts and a UAZ 'Bukhanka'. "Ukrzaliznytsia" is strengthening document control during train boarding. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that German HENSOLDT will produce TRML-4D and SPEXER 2000 radars for Ukraine for €340 million. New US aid package for $330M approved, including AD and SAU. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video and confirms localization of German Vector drone production in Ukraine. The global Starlink outage will significantly impact UAF communication and drone operations. Operatyvny ZSU posts a video of a fighter jet performing maneuvers, with a watermark 'AIR_FIGHTER'. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs north of Zaporizhzhia and in central Sumy Oblast, stating that assets are engaged to shoot them down. The Starlink outage has been largely resolved, but communications remain affected for some units ("Dnevnik Desantnika"). Nikolaevsky Vanek reports that all "mopeds" (drones) detected in Poltava Oblast near Kremenchuk and Svitlovodsk are confirmed neutralized. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) over Sumy city. UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction. UAF Air Force confirms GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts. UAF General Staff provides updated operational information as of 08:00 25.07.2025, with a map depicting combat operations on 24.07.2025, showing contested areas and enemy advances in Orikhiv and Lyman directions. UAF Air Force reports ballistic missile threat from Donetsk, which has been cleared. UAF General Staff provides an updated summary as of 08:00 25.07.2025 (photo message). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports air raid alert cleared. UAF Air Force reports ballistic missile threat cleared. STERNENKO posts a message implying continued need for drone donations. Office of the Prosecutor General reports over 100M UAH transferred to ARMA from corruption case. Operatyvny ZSU posts a video titled "Occupiers must be killed and you can help with that!" likely a call to action/recruitment. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration promotes handball for veterans. Шеф Hayabusa posts a photo message of the frontline on Pokrovsk direction. Operatyvny ZSU reports the SBU detained another FSB agent who helped RF shell Kharkiv, with photos showing the detention. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Air Defense forces shot down 54 out of 63 enemy UAVs overnight. GUR cyber specialists conducted a "digital strike" against the occupation administration of Crimea, destroying all data on "government" servers. UAF General Staff posts photo messages promoting teamwork. Coordination Staff for POWs posts a video of a returning POW, promoting his story. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy stated Russia is "getting smacked" near Pokrovsk. Operatyvny ZSU reports the first Patriot battery and missiles from Germany have arrived in Ukraine. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the arrival of a Patriot system and missiles from Germany. RBK-Ukraina reports Patriot system and additional missiles have arrived in Ukraine. RBK-Ukraina reports Ukraine will receive another IRIS-T from Germany. Operatyvny ZSU confirms Ukraine will receive an 8th IRIS-T from Germany. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of two Russian soldiers surrendering near Vovchansk. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports that Ukrainian and Polish law enforcement liquidated a transnational drug network, seizing hundreds of kilograms of drugs. UAF General Staff reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Zaliznychne of Zaporizhzhia region, Kherson and Mykolayivka of Kherson region. UAF General Staff provides detailed updates on yesterday's clashes: South Slobozhansky(Kharkiv) direction near Vovchansk, Zelene, Petro-Ivanivka and Kamyanske; Kupyansk direction near Stepova Novoselivka, Zahryzove, Kupyansk, Zelenyi Hai and towards Velyka Shapkivka; Lyman direction near Hrekivka, Novyy Myr, Yampolivka, Torske, Serebryanka, also towards Dronivka, Shandryholove, Cherneschyna, Serednye; Sieversk direction near Hryhorivka and Pereyizne; Kramatorsk direction near Mykolayivka and towards Bila Hora; Toretsk direction near Dyliyivka, Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, towards Pleschiyivka, Oleksandro-Shultyne and Katerynivka; Pokrovsk direction near Myrne, Myrnohrad, Novoekonomichne, Lysivka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne, Promin, also towards Volodymyrivka, Rodynske and Pokrovsk; Novopavlivka direction near Piddubne, Maliyivka, Yalta, Voskresenka, towards Temyrivka and Oleksandrohrad; Orikhiv direction near Stepnohirsk; Kherson direction Ukrainian forces have repelled 5 Russian army assaults; Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction Ukrainian forces have repelled 25 Russian army assaults. BUTUSOV ПЛЮС video shows mass liquidation of Russian forces near Torske. Operatyvny ZSU reports Col. Kyrylo Veres, Hero of Ukraine, is one of the most popular military figures. Coordination Staff for POWs reports outreach to families of servicemen in Vinnytsia Oblast. RBK-Ukraina reports PM Shmyhal outlined 3 key needs of UAF for EU discussions. STERNENKO claims 1129 Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment shot down 9 enemy wings. RBK-Ukraina, Operatyvny ZSU report Zelenskyy approved extension of martial law and mobilization for three months (until November 5th). Operatyvny ZSU reports 118th Separate Mechanized Brigade repelled attack in the south, destroying 1 tank, 3 BMPs, 4 trucks and eliminating 38 personnel. Military Intelligence analysis report on a Patriot battery confirms Germany's transfer. Military Intelligence analysis report on 17 AK UAF preparing for combat from Arkhangel Spetsnaza. General Staff of UAF photo message shows a soldier in military attire with helmet and goggles, suggesting operational readiness. Zelenskiy / Official and KMVA posts videos of Zelenskyy visiting rehabilitation centers. RBK-Ukraina reports the Polish prosecutor's office has launched an investigation into a Polish citizen who showed his participation in the war on the side of Russia on TikTok. KMVA and Oleg Syniehubov publish new videos of military training, showing tanks, soldiers, and drone technology, emphasizing professional and effective preparation. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration publishes video of Zelenskyy visiting a rehabilitation center for injured soldiers. Coordination Staff for POWs publishes photos of meeting with families of 131st Battalion, 112th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade, servicemen who are POWs or missing. Office of the Prosecutor General reports the detention of an organizer of a bribery scheme to evade mobilization in Zakarpattia Oblast. UAF General Staff posts photo messages indicating NATO meetings. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Syrsky stated new AD systems are coming. Zelenskiy / Official and Operatyvny ZSU report Zelenskyy aims for 1000 interceptor drones per day; Zelenskyy video shows him at drone interceptor production facility, inspecting 3D printers and component assembly. General Staff of UAF announces new online course "Stop Corruption. Authorized Persons" in the Army+ application. STERNENKO reports Odesa mayor Trukhanov fined 4.8 million UAH for illegal gambling advertising. OPG reports a murder investigation opened by Sumy Oblast Prosecutor. Office of the Prosecutor General reports initiating a criminal investigation in Lviv Oblast, following an image of children participating in military training, for potential violations of child protection laws. Operatyvny ZSU posts a video of a UAF soldier loading RPG-7 rounds onto a pickup truck. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
RFU: Continues deep strike operations targeting Ukrainian territory with UAVs and missiles/GABs. Aggressively promoting claimed battlefield successes. MOD Russia claims Grad MLRS use near Krasnoarmeysk. RF AD actively engaged in defending its territory, claiming 105 UAVs downed. Conducting prisoner exchanges and information operations. MOD Russia posted video of a naval exercise ("Ilyusky Shtorm") with missile launches. Putin and Mirziyoyev expressed satisfaction with strategic partnership. MOD Russia claims high-precision strikes on energy facilities powering the military-industrial complex (MIC). Gleb Nikitin (Nizhny Novgorod Governor) posts photos and video of substantial humanitarian aid deliveries to RF forces, including Mavics, FPV drones, optical sights, vehicles, and a tracked robotic platform "Molot". TASS reports Putin stated plans to create modern naval forces will be fully implemented. Colonelcassad posts video of a FPV drone strike by the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade against a Ukrainian forces pickup truck in the South Donetsk direction. Kotsnews posts a video titled "Kill 'Baba Yaga'," showing drone footage. TASS reports Putin is visiting Severodvinsk. "Two Majors" posts a video of an FPV anti-air drone called "Rocket." Военкор Котенок posts a video of an FPV drone ambush on a Ukrainian Forces pickup truck. Операция Z posts video showing aerial footage of military operations near Dmytrov (Mirnohrad). Colonelcassad claims liberation of Shevchenko and Pivdenny micro-districts in Chasiv Yar by 98th VDV, and envelopment of Zemlianky micro-districts, and liberation of Yablonovka on the Konstantinovka direction. Z комитет + карта СВО posts a tactical map of Novopavlovskoe direction. Colonelcassad posts an animated map showing alleged Russian missile and drone strikes. MoD Russia posts video of Putin raising the naval ensign on the 'Knyaz Pozharsky' nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine. Basurin o glavnom posts video showing a BM-21 Grad MLRS in action, reconnaissance drone use, and mine clearance. Kadyrov_95 posts video of volunteers departing Grozny airport for the front. Russian milbloggers are confirming the global Starlink outage. TASS reports RF forces inflicted an airstrike on a UAF HQ in Kherson. RBK-Ukraina reports at least 7 explosions in the suburbs of Taganrog and Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast. New reports from ASTRA indicate residents of Novocherkassk are again reporting a large number of drones and explosions. Igor Artamonov warns of a UAV attack threat in Yelets and Yelets district. RF has declared a "red" level drone threat for Lipetsk Oblast. ASTRA reports "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) implemented in North Ossetia and other SKFO regions due to UAV threat, citing Menyaylo. Krasnodar Krai Operative Headquarters reports drone attack. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train car, injuring two, which will be leveraged for propaganda. Continued GAB launches on Sumy Oblast. НгП раZVедка reports Nevinnomyssk is reflecting the most massive attack on the North Caucasus during the entire SVO. Temporary flight restrictions in 8 RF airports. This indicates a perceived success in AD and continued high state of alert in RF border regions. НгП раZVедка praises Nevinnomyssk AD. НгП раZVедка claims "Our victory" and "stand down" in Nevinnomyssk, implying successful AD. TASS reports new suspects may emerge in the case of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, accused of abuse of power. ASTRA posts video showing alleged attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot industrial plant. RBK-Ukraina posts video showing alleged attack on a chemical plant in Stavropol Krai. RBK-Ukraina reports 45 flights delayed in Sochi airport. Colonelcassad posts videos showing strikes on enemy manpower and equipment by the 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade and the 114th Motorised Rifle Regiment of the 127th Division of the 5th Army Group "Vostok". Operatyvny ZSU posts videos confirming drone activity and explosions in Rostov Oblast. Colonelcassad posts videos showing FPV drone as RPG carrier. Colonelcassad posts videos showing FPV drone operators from 5th Separate Guards Tank Brigade ("Vostok" group) hitting enemy logistics in South-Donetsk direction. Igor Artamonov reports "yellow level" drone threat lifted. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video titled "Good drones didn't let Russia sleep: a series of explosions occurred in Stavropol Krai, Tambov, and Rostov Oblasts." Басурин о главном posts #МЫПОМНИМ photo messages. TASS posts video and analysis of claimed "liberation" of Novoekonomichne. TASS reports RF forces created a "fire bag" for UAF in the Yuzhny quarter of Chasiv Yar. Operational ZSU reports explosions in occupied Donetsk. Operation Z reports 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over 10 regions overnight. WarGonzo posts video of UAF rocket strikes on Donetsk. CyberBoroshno claims successful strike on RF HQ in Donetsk. TASS reports Soyuz-2.1b launch from Vostochny Cosmodrome. ASTRA reports Russia is forming a battalion of captured Ukrainian soldiers. Kotsnews and Arkhangel Spetsnaza post recruitment videos for Russian military service, offering 5.5 million rubles for the first year. MoD Russia posts video of servicemen of the 20th Guards Combined Arms Army training in assault tactics in LPR. Colonelcassad posts photo and video of claimed liberation of Novoekonomichne, showing Russian flags. TASS posts video of detention of a man in Cherepovets linked to Ukrainian call centers. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russia is forming a battalion from captured Ukrainian military personnel, citing State Duma deputy Vodolatsky. ASTRA reports Russia is forming a battalion from captured Ukrainian military personnel, citing State Duma deputy Vodolatsky. Arkhangel Spetsnaza posts a photo message congratulating the 45th VDV Brigade on their holiday. Rybar posts a video about "combat control know-how" showing Russian military officers discussing networked systems for coordinating devices and software, and tactical displays. Basurin о главном posts a photo with a sledgehammer and text implying aggressive retaliation, "He who comes to us with a sword will get a sledgehammer to the head!" Z комитет + карта СВО posts drone footage of destroyed urban area and claims from 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (5OMSBBr). Narodnaya militsiya DNR posts video of a drone ambush on a UAF pickup truck near Novoekonomichne. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts video of a cemetery in Murmansk with many graves. Butusov Plus posts video of Russian soldiers in a trench. Colonelcassad reports 105 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed or intercepted overnight. TASS posts video of SF honoring victims of An-24 crash. Rybar posts video showing transfer of US dollars and political influence in Moldova, indicating RF's focus on Western interference in post-Soviet states. MoD Russia posts video of naval operations during "July Storm" exercises. Poddubny ZOV Edition posts messages appealing for donations to support RF units on the front lines. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a tactical map on the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating ongoing operations. Colonelcassad posts graphic video of a Russian soldier allegedly killing his wounded comrade. MoD Russia reports 10 group strikes including 3 Kinzhal missiles from 19-25 July. Fighterbomber claims 4 Patriot launchers and an AN/MPQ-65 radar destroyed over the past week (CONFIDENCE: LOW). TASS reports a UAF platoon defected from positions near Yanvarskoye (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) and attempting to illegally export weapons from Sumy Oblast to other regions (CONFIDENCE: LOW). Vooin DV posts drone footage of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade destroying UAF transport, UAV control point, and artillery in the Yanvarskoye area. MoD Russia presents weekly operational summary; indicates 10 group strikes and 3 Kinzhal missiles. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki reports Russian losses exceeded 120,000. Basurin o glavnom reports UAF continue daily UAV attacks on Russian regions, with increasing numbers of drones. Operation Z reports an interview with a Ukrainian commander discussing "idiocy" within the Ukrainian army. TASS reports the main naval parade in St. Petersburg has been canceled. Narodnaya militsiya DNR reports UAF struck civilian areas of Donetsk again this morning. Colonelcassad video shows "Rubikon" combat groups for air defense, indicating continued Russian AD operations. Alex Parker Returns posts video of a rescue operation in a damaged urban environment, and video of an explosion, attributing it to locals complaining about gas pipes, framing the Saratov explosion as an internal issue, not a Ukrainian strike. Operation Z posts a video of a claimed Ukrainian POW saying he "saw no other way" and wanted to help RF forces, for propaganda purposes. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts a photo showing an increase in funeral companies, potentially implying a rise in RF casualties. Colonelcassad reports "enemy reports sharp deterioration of situation in Krasnoarmeysk, Dimitrov (Mirnograd) and north of Krasnoarmeysk agglomeration," suggesting RF narrative of sustained advances. Rybar and Two Majors photo messages show the claimed "liberation of Novoekonomichne," further solidifying RF's narrative of territorial gains. Colonelcassad video shows numerous black dual-sport motorcycles in formation, for potential tactical mobility/reconnaissance. Военкор Котенок posts a photo of an RC-135V Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft, attributing its return to "Polish presence," implying heightened NATO ISR activity. Басурин о главном posts a photo depicting a large crowd waving Russian flags with a church in the background, captioned "In Great Britain, they were surprised by the patriotism of Russians," indicating RF's use of public events for propaganda and emphasizing domestic support. Рыбарь posts a photo message captioned "Moldovans - Amnesty," implying a policy related to Moldovan citizens in Russia, likely linked to the previous report about simplified entry/work for Moldovans, and consistent with RF's efforts to influence its near abroad. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo message with the caption "Classics of modern narrow literature," and another message stating it's related to a fictional work, indicating a sarcastic Ukrainian information operation against Russian culture or propaganda. MoD Russia video shows "Tsentr Group" forcing enemy out of Donetsk People's Republic. Basurin o glavnom publishes a video and photos promoting RF propaganda about "Satanists in the AFU." TASS video shows crane removing damaged vehicle from Saratov explosion site. Операция Z reports a former UAF soldier, a student from Chuvashia who joined the AFU, was returned to Russia during a prisoner exchange. TASS reports Belousov stated RF forces confidently advancing on October direction and improving position. Colonelcassad posts videos of alleged ethnic cleansing in Es-Suwayda province, Syria, featuring masked individuals and armed personnel. TASS reports Microsoft's Russian subsidiary has filed for bankruptcy. TASS reports journalist Dmitry Kolezev (labeled foreign agent) added to list of terrorists and extremists. Moscow News reports Sberbank reducing rates on mortgages and consumer loans. TASS reports deputy head of Khimki municipality, Irina Zhdankina, placed under house arrest for large-scale bribery. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports new missile strike preparation with strategic bombers (Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, Tu-160) and MiG-31K. Operation Z claims 500 volunteers from "Lev" battalion in Lviv are shooting down Shaheds (CONFIDENCE: LOW). Rybar video message reports alleged ethnic crime and labor exploitation in Kuzbass, specifically mentioning Tajiks and Uzbeks, and the organization 'Bozkurt'. TASS reports that the law on fines for searching extremist materials will not affect most Russians, according to Fadeyev. Rybar posts video and photo messages of "Combat Nivas" (modified Lada Niva vehicles) being used by RF forces. Воин DV posts a drone video showing a military vehicle transporting personnel being hit by a precision strike. Два майора posts a series of photos under the rubric "Soldier's Daily Life." Два майора posts photos and video of a new modification of the Turkish ALPiN-2 unmanned helicopter, now capable of carrying smaller drones ("drone carrier"). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Intentions:
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations
2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status
2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
Successes:
Setbacks:
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
RF Narratives:
UAF Counter-Narratives & Information Operations:
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
Ukrainian Public Sentiment:
Russian Public Sentiment:
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
Support for Ukraine (Strong but Conditional):
Support for Russia (Limited/Cautious):
Neutral/Other:
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
MLCOA 1: Sustained High-Tempo Offensive on Pokrovsk Axis with Deep Strikes (Confidence: HIGH)
MLCOA 2: Containment and Elimination of Krynky Bridgehead (Confidence: HIGH)
MLCOA 3: Intensified Hybrid Warfare and Information Operations (Confidence: HIGH)
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
MDCOA 1: Breakthrough and Encirclement on Pokrovsk Axis Coupled with Massed Ballistic Missile Strikes (Confidence: MEDIUM)
MDCOA 2: Expanded Ground Offensive from Northern Border (Sumy/Kharkiv) (Confidence: LOW-MEDIUM)
MDCOA 3: Targeted Cyber Attack on Starlink Network (Confidence: LOW)
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
PRIORITY 1: Consolidate Pokrovsk Defenses & Counter RF Penetration.
PRIORITY 2: Maximize Air Defense Readiness Against Incoming Missile Strike.
PRIORITY 3: Enhance ISR and Counter-Battery Capabilities for Krynky Bridgehead.
PRIORITY 4: Exploit RF Internal Vulnerabilities & Information Environment.
PRIORITY 5: Expedite Domestic Drone Production and Counter-UAS Innovation.
PRIORITY 6: Mitigate Starlink Vulnerabilities.
END REPORT
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