Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 250837Z JUL 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide threat from RF missile and UAV attacks persists. Guided Aerial Bombs (GABs), including the UMPB-5 and FAB-3000, remain a significant threat in frontline areas. A new ballistic missile threat from the northeast is active. The threat of aviation weapon use remains active in Sumy, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. The first operational use of P-800 Onyx anti-ship missiles against ground targets in Odesa is confirmed. RF tactical aviation activity observed in southeastern direction. RF launches of GABs on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts confirmed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports 54/61 enemy UAVs and 0/2 Iskander-M/KN-23 missiles shot down or suppressed overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Odesa Oblast: Confirmed destruction of a residential 9-story building and the Pryvoz market due to RF drone attacks. Civilian casualties confirmed (1 fatality, 3 injured at Pryvoz, others unknown but likely higher). Explosion on a Ukrainian dredge ship "Delta-Lotsman" in Bystre estuary resulted in 3 deaths and injuries. Enemy reconnaissance UAV detected in Black Sea waters near Zatoka, actively being engaged by UAF assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Seven UAVs confirmed shot down. New threat of aviation weapon use in Synelnykivskyi district. New missile threat detected for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol, Kryvyi Rih, Kamyanske, Dnipro districts). Ongoing shelling of Nikopol, Myrivska, and Marhanets communities with drones and artillery. New reports indicate threat of enemy strike UAVs from the northeast in Synelnykivskyi district, extending to Pavlohrad and Samara districts. New groups of enemy strike UAVs are moving from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk. Five "mopeds" (drones) reported flying towards Dnipro from the Synelnykivskyi direction. All reported "mopeds" (drones) near Kremenchuk and Svitlovodsk are confirmed neutralized. Damage to residential buildings, a medical facility, and a lyceum in Nikopol confirmed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Axis): RF sources claim advances near Redkodub, Karpovka, Glushchenkovo, Novy Mir, and capture of Novotoretskoye. RF claims "fights began on the southern and southwestern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk." MOD Russia claims Grad MLRS used against an AFU stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. UAF (MURAMASA) continues successful engagements against RF ground probes on Kostiantynivka axis. UAF Air Force reports RF launches of GABs onto Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad claims a precision FAB strike on a bridge over the Vovcha River. UAF General Staff reports clashes near Rusyn Yar, Myrolubivka, Zatyshok, Lysivka, Popiv Yar, Myrnohrad, Zvirove, Udachne, Oleksiyivka, Novoukrayinka, Mayak, Novoekonomichne, Kotlyne, Dachne and towards Pokrovsk, Pankivka, Volodymyrivka, Sukhetske. RF milbloggers "Operatsiya Z" claim continued destruction of UAF personnel near Pokrovsk. Colonelcassad posts video of FPV drone strike near Volodymyrivka. "Two Majors" milbloggers claim a breakthrough to Aleksandro-Kalinovo on the Konstantinovka direction. 2 killed, 14 injured from Russian shelling in Konstantinovka. Donetsk Oblast is expanding forced evacuation. "Operatsiya Z" claims Novoekonomichne liberated and approaching Dmytrov (Mirnohrad). TASS claims "Center" group liberated Novoekonomichne and Zverevo. Colonelcassad now claims liberation of Shevchenko and Pivdenny micro-districts in Chasiv Yar by 98th VDV, and envelopment of Zemlianky micro-district. Colonelcassad now claims liberation of Yablonovka on the Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad posts video of alleged destruction of UAF UAV control point in Poltavka. Kotsnews reports RF advances threaten T0406 road to Pokrovsk and Mirnograd garrisons. Butusov Plus posts video showing Mirnohrad in ruins. Z комитет + карта СВО map depicts Krasnoarmeyskoye direction with claimed RF control and fortifications. RF milblogger "Slivochniy Kapriz" shows alleged satellite imagery of "Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoye" areas. Alex Parker Returns claims RF forces have secured positions in Pokrovsk. Threat of enemy strike UAVs detected in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad video shows drone footage with thermal imaging, documenting strikes on buildings, vehicles (potential armored personnel carriers and trucks), a communication tower, and targets identified as 'ПВД', 'ТАнк', 'АВТО', 'ПАТЧ-АНТЕННА', 'СИСТЕМА СВЯЗИ', 'СПУТНИКОВАЯ АНТЕННА', 'БАБА-ЯГА', with 'MARDER' designation for a vehicle. TASS reports that the liberation of Novoekonomichne by Russian fighters allows them to put pressure on the AFU grouping near Krasnyi Lyman in DNR and "seriously complicate" enemy logistics. RF Army reports cleaning up two settlements near Krasnoarmeysk in DNR. TASS reports Russian fighters improved tactical position near Petrovsky, taking about 3.5 km of the LNR administrative border under fire control. Multiple powerful explosions reported in Donetsk with RF AD response. UAF Air Force reports ballistic missile threat from Donetsk. TASS posts video claiming "liberation" of Novoekonomichne, showing drone footage of destroyed buildings and a Russian flag. TASS reports RF forces created a "fire bag" for UAF in the Yuzhny quarter of Chasiv Yar, according to Marochko. Operational ZSU reports explosions in occupied Donetsk, implying RF "dome defense system" was ineffective, and additionally claims 8 impacts on RF base and railway infrastructure. CyberBoroshno claims successful strike on RF HQ in Donetsk. UAF struck the Zasyadko mine in Kyivskyi district of Donetsk, causing a fire in an administrative building. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports a direct hit on the Zasyadko mine in Kyivskyi district of Donetsk, with photos showing significant fire in an administrative building and smoke plumes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Slivochniy Kapriz posts a video of aerial footage showing a village with damaged buildings and a soldier planting a Russian flag, captioned "25.07.25 Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoye." (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). TASS reports advisor to DPR head, Igor Kimakovsky, claims RF forces expelled UAF from positions in Zelenyy Hay, DNR. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Kotsnews posts video titled "Fights for Zverevo. How the village was liberated." This video shows aerial reconnaissance of a damaged settlement with destroyed buildings and damaged vehicles, confirming ongoing combat and RF claims of taking Zverevo, and indicating a threat to the T0406 road to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Starshy Edda posts video titled "Fights for Zverevo. How the village was liberated", further confirming RF advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Cherkasy Oblast: Seven individuals, including a child, injured from RF missile attack, with casualties rising to 12. Damage to a cemetery. New threat of enemy strike UAVs from the northeast for Cherkasy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts a video alleging the strike on Cherkasy was by an Iskander-K targeting an abandoned 41st Guards Tank Division infrastructure, Hotel "Vlada" (alleged UAF personnel lodging), and garage cooperatives (alleged UAV production). (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Kharkiv Oblast: RF sources claim "North" group continued creating a "security strip." First operational use of a FAB-3000 M-54 UMPK against a Ukrainian strongpoint in Lyptsi. Positional fighting continues in Vovchansk. Kharkiv Oblast Administration reports 9 settlements struck. RF forces claimed "infiltrated UAF defenses near Melovoe, crossed the Verkhnya Dvurechnaya river, and secured its western bank." UAF Air Force reports new GAB launches onto Kharkiv Oblast. KAAB hit a multi-story building in Kharkiv, causing 41 injured (including 6 children). ASTRA and Operatyvny ZSU post videos of KAB hits on a multi-story residential building. OTU "Kharkiv" reports on successful aero reconnaissance strikes destroying enemy vehicles and positions. UAF General Staff reports clashes near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Dvorichna and towards Petro-Ivanivka. Oleg Syniehubov posts photos of returned POWs. New RBK-Ukraina reports 39 injured, 6 children. RF drone attack on Kharkiv confirmed. Fighterbomber posts video and photo implying three FAB-500 strikes on the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (ГУ МВД). ОТУ "Харків" posts new drone footage showing "Molniya" strike UAVs destroying Russian observation posts and a UAZ 'Bukhanka'. Enemy strike UAVs detected on the eastern outskirts of Kharkiv Oblast, course west. Likely reconnaissance UAVs on the western outskirts of Kharkiv, possible AD engagement. UAV in Balakliya area, course southwest. TASS reports RF forces inflicted strikes on a UAV control point, manpower, and armored vehicles of UAF in Kharkiv Oblast using "Grad" MLRS. UAF Air Force confirms GAB launches on Kharkiv from the northeast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Oleg Syniehubov reports 5 casualties remain in hospitals from yesterday's Kharkiv attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). MoD Russia posts video claiming a Grad MLRS crew of the 44th Army Corps destroyed UAV command posts, manpower, and armored vehicles of AFU units in a forested area in Kharkiv direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). SBU detained a Russian spotter in Kharkiv, who reportedly expressed satisfaction with GAB attacks on the city, claiming many people were "torn apart." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports KAAB incoming on Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 48-year-old woman injured in Orikhivska Hromada. RF Milbloggers claim RF forces "liberated Kamyanske" and are "storming Plavni, advancing further." Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration confirms continued RF strikes on a university sports hall. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV heading towards Zaporizhzhia from the south. UAF General Staff reports airstrikes at Mala Tokmachka, Prymorske, Malokaterynivka, Mahdalynivka. Clashes reported near Mala Tokmachka (Orikhiv direction) and Bilohirya (Huliaippole direction). TASS reports RF forces advancing north from Kamyanske towards Stepnohirsk. New RF milblogger video shows reconnaissance and destruction of AFU vehicles in Zatyshye. Z Committee + SVO Map milbloggers post a tactical map of Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating claimed advances towards Plavni. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports defenders destroy over 50 Russian reconnaissance drones weekly. The AFU Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetropats Oblasts. Two Majors post a video from Zaporizhzhia front, showing drone footage of explosions on targets with a Ukrainian flag overlay and Russian insignia. Colonelcassad posts new map claiming RF advances near Kamyanske and Plavni. RF milblogger "Operatsiya Z" posted drone footage showing strikes on buildings and structures in a populated area. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected north of Zaporizhzhia city, suggesting continued ISR. New groups of enemy strike UAVs are moving through Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports the air raid alert has been cleared. UAF Air Force confirms GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a 64-year-old woman severely wounded in Stepnohirsk due to enemy attack. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a 63-year-old man killed in Polohivskyi Raion due to enemy attack. STERNENKO reports enemy activated offensive operations in Zaporizhzhia direction, near Stepnohirsk, with tactical advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Воин DV posts video claiming liberation of Volnoye Pole by Vostok group and 5th Army storm units, and shows SAU "Dana" firing. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). TASS reports a Ukrainian UAV dropped a munition on the parking lot near the Zaporizhzhia NPP, damaging 7 civilian vehicles, but the station is operating normally and security is not compromised. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Mash na Donbasse posts photos confirming a Ukrainian UAV dropped a munition near Zaporizhzhia NPP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Kryvyi Rih: Situation assessed as controlled. Oleksandr Vilkul shares photos from an educational facility and road construction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Oleksandr Vilkul shares photos of children of servicemen attending a summer camp, likely for morale boosting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: RBK-Ukraina reports "Russians attacked Mykolaiv with drones overnight." Significant fires. Dnevnik Desantnika claims RF forces "destroyed a Bayraktar UAV production facility at the Equator factory." SBU prevented a dual terrorist act near the regional TCC. RBK-Ukraina reports a Russian drone attacked a Norwegian humanitarian organization's base. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for drone attacks/impact, SBU operation, humanitarian base attack; LOW for claimed target destruction).
  • Sumy Oblast: UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) near Bilopillia and a reconnaissance UAV near Lebedyn, both heading southeast. UAF Air Force reports RF launches of GABs onto Sumy Oblast. Reconnaissance UAVs reported on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. UAF General Staff reports repelled 12 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky direction. Colonelcassad publishes drone footage showing strikes. Vooin DV posts video of an FPV drone strike on a Ukrainian Forces pickup truck. Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 Shahed drones flying towards Sumy. UAF Air Force reports new GAB launches onto Sumy Oblast. Operatyvny ZSU posts images of "Sumy attackers." STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast (Khotin), heading southwest. UAF Air Force reports an enemy UAV (Shahed) on the northern outskirts of Shostka. UAF Air Force reports threat of enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast from the north, currently flying south. UAF Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs near Bilopillia, heading south. New groups of enemy strike UAVs reported on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, course west/southwest. RBK-Ukraina reports a frontline community in Sumy Oblast was attacked, with one fatality near Znob-Novhorodske. "Two Majors" purports to show the 155th Separate Guards Naval Infantry Brigade operating in the Sumy direction. UAF Air Force reports new Shahed drones moving towards Sumy city from the northeast. UAF Air Force reports "Konotop! To shelter!" and fast-moving targets in Sumy region heading west. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in southern Sumy Oblast. НгП раZVедка reports "Good news from Sumy direction." Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages and text regarding a "Sumy columbarium" and "Closing of America" in Ukraine, likely propaganda. UAF Air Force reports RF launches of GABs onto Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) over Sumy city. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts video of a captured Ukrainian serviceman (Chernets Vasyl Alekseevich, 22.07.1985, 156th Separate Mechanized Brigade) near Yunakivka, who states he was mobilized, feared desertion, and observed life worsening since Maidan. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports UAV in the Sumy suburbs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Kherson Oblast: RF claims aviation strike on a UAF HQ in Kherson. GAB launch on Kherson from Temporarily Occupied Territory (TOT). STERNENKO also reports strikes on Kherson. Reconnaissance UAVs reported on Kherson Oblast. UAF General Staff reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Lvove and repelled 9 Russian army assaults. Vooin DV posts video claiming a substation explosion in Kherson. Voenkor Kotenok posts video implying capture of a "Zhdun" (collaborator/spotter). New RF milblogger video shows aerial view of an urban environment labeled "Kherson. Works group ROY," showing an explosion. Basurin o glavnom posts video of FSB detention and interrogation of a man in Krasnodar Krai for alleged collaboration and photography of military facilities, as well as a video of the detention of a "spotter" in Kherson Oblast. New videos from Colonelcassad captioned "FSB of Russia in Kherson region stopped illegal activities of a Russian citizen involved in state treason" show an individual admitting to photographing government facilities and checkpoints in Kherson. RBK-Ukraina reports a combined RF attack on Dniprovskyi district of Kherson. Two Majors posts new drone footage from Kherson. RBK-Ukraina reports RF dropped explosives from a drone on an ambulance crew in Dniprovskyi district of Kherson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for GAB use and strikes, recon UAV activity, FSB/RF claims of capturing a spotter, new video confirmation of drone activity/strikes, combined attack, ambulance attack; MEDIUM for substation explosion claim – awaiting UAF confirmation).
  • Other Eastern Axes: UAF General Staff reports clashes near Stepova Novoselivka, Borivska Andriyivka, Holubivka, Zahryzove, Novoplatonivka (Kupyansk direction); Hrekivka, Zelenyy Hay, Serednye, Shandryholove, Dronivka, Novyy Mir, Karpivka, Kolodyazi, Shypylivka and towards Druzhelubivka, Serebryanka (Lyman direction); Hryhorivka (Siversk direction); Chasiv Yar, Stupochky and Bila Hora (Kramatorsk direction); Toretsk (Toretsk direction); Zaporizhzhya, Zirka, Piddubne, Oleksandrohrad, Shevchenko, Maliyivka, Temyrivka, Voskresenka and Vilne Pole (Novopavlivka direction). New RF milblogger photo from Kupyansk direction near Radkovka. STERNENKO reports Sky Hunters of the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade are stopping new Russian assaults on the Kupyansk direction. Z комитет + SVO Map milbloggers post a tactical map of Novopavlovskoe direction showing occupied territories. UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction. Colonelcassad posts satellite imagery of UAF engineering structures in Kramatorsk district, construction began June 2025. Rybar provides tactical maps of the Kupyansk direction, with a new video analyzing the advance towards Belaya Gora and Shcherbinovka, confirming Russian advances south of Konstantinovka and push into central Yablonevka, securing areas south of Yablonevka, and fighting in Shcherbinovka. It also indicates an assault on the eastern flank towards Kurdyumovka and Ozaryanovka, and a successful advance to the western bank of the Seversky Donets-Donbas canal. Voenkor Kotenok posts a map of Pokrovskoye (Krasnoarmeyskoye) direction. DeepState reports map updated. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Poltava Oblast: RBK-Ukraina reports an enemy drone fell in Poltava Oblast due to air defense work. UAF Air Force reports a reconnaissance UAV on the border of Kharkiv and Poltava Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports threat of enemy strike UAVs from the northeast. UAF Air Force warns of threat to Kremenchuk and Svitlovodsk from drones. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 3 Shahed drones over Kremenchuk/Svitlovodsk and 1 from Cherkasy towards Kremenchuk. New high-speed target detected on the northeastern part of Poltava region towards Kremenchuk. Explosions reported in Kremenchuk area. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports drones near Kremenchuk are "minus." RF milblogger "НгП раZVедка" reports "Good news from Poltava Oblast," which may indicate successful RF strike activity or UAF setbacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russia:
  • Krasnodar Krai (Sochi/Kuban): Multiple videos show large explosions and fires near a "Lukoil-Yugnefteprodukt Sochinskaya oil depot." RF MoD claims 39 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down. Civilian reports indicate flight disruptions. TASS and ASTRA confirm casualties (2 dead, 13 injured). Peskov states these attacks are a "continuation of Kyiv's strikes on civilian objects." Krasnodar Krai Operative Headquarters reports drone attack. TASS reports that UAV debris, falling on the territory of a railway station, damaged a passenger train car, injuring two people. RBK-Ukraina reports 45 flights delayed in Sochi airport, up from 25 across 8 airports previously reported. ASTRA reports Timashevsk railway station in Krasnodar Krai without power after UAV attack, 2 train passengers injured. TASS reports a Boeing S7 flight to Sochi is returning to Novosibirsk airport. Sever.Realii reports two people injured in Krasnodar Krai due to falling drone debris on a train. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Kursk Oblast: Russian official Khinshtein signed a resolution on payments to residents forced to leave homes due to property damage. STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. A woman was killed by a drone attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Luhansk (Kremennaya): TASS reports a "firefight" by UAF in Kremennaya. MoD Russia posts video of military engineers ensuring transport accessibility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for infrastructure repair, LOW for UAF aggressive action).
  • Rostov Oblast (Novocherkassk/Taganrog Area): RBK-Ukraina reports at least 7 explosions in the suburbs of Taganrog and Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast, with Russians complaining of unknown drone attacks and claiming AD work. New reports from ASTRA confirm residents of Novocherkassk are again reporting a large number of drones and explosions. Traffic over the Crimean Bridge has been temporarily suspended. Operatyvny ZSU posts videos confirming drone activity and explosions in Rostov Oblast. Operatyvny ZSU reports railway station building in Peschanokopskoye, Rostov Oblast, damaged by UAV strike. TASS reports damage to contact network at a Rostov region station due to UAV debris, causing train delays. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Amur Oblast: A civilian An-24 passenger plane with 43 passengers and 6 crew members went missing, crash site found 16km from Tynda, fuselage burning, no survivors. TASS reports technical malfunction and human factor as versions, then later states the An-24 was technically sound. Five railway workers among the dead. TASS reports 13 residents of Khabarovsk Krai died in the crash. Photo messages from "Полиция Хабаровского края" showing police vehicles, likely related to the ongoing investigation or response to the An-24 crash aftermath. Amur Oblast Governor Vasily Orlov has flown to Tynda with a government commission to assess the situation. TASS reports over 200 people working at An-24 crash site in Tynda. Police of Khabarovsk Krai posts photo messages, likely related to the An-24 crash investigation, some of which are deemed unsuitable for military analysis as they appear to show illicit substances or general civilian scenes. TASS reports flags lowered in Khabarovsk in mourning. TASS reports the An-24 crash debris field covers 1 hectare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Amur Oblast authorities will pay 1 million rubles to families of deceased residents from the An-24 crash. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA posts video about the 1 million ruble payout to families of An-24 crash victims in Amur Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports the Cabinet of Ministers will pay 5 million rubles to families of deceased in the An-24 crash and that flight recorders have been found and will be transported to Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Rosaviatsia and Rostransnadzor will initiate a check of Angara Airlines following the An-24 crash. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports that the flight recorders of the crashed An-24 are damaged but likely suitable for decoding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports that the Amur Oblast Governor states the An-24 crash causes could be technical malfunction or pilot error. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Rostov Oblast (Novoshakhtinsk): Operatyvny ZSU posts video of a burning shopping center. A firefighter died, and a woman's body was found in the fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Nevinnomyssk (Stavropol Krai, North Caucasus): НгП раZVедка reports Nevinnomyssk is reflecting the most massive attack on the North Caucasus during the entire SVO. ASTRA confirms explosions in Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol Krai. RBK-Ukraina video shows a distant explosion. НгП раZVедка praises Nevinnomyssk AD. RBK-Ukraina reports the mayor of Nevinnomyssk claims 37 drone impacts with no losses or damage. ASTRA posts video showing alleged attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot industrial plant in Stavropol Krai, with sound of explosions and visual of bright flashes and smoke. RBK-Ukraina posts video showing alleged attack on a chemical plant in Stavropol Krai, also with fire/explosions and smoke visible. ASTRA posts video of Nevinnomyssk mayor claiming "37 hits, no losses, no destruction in the city, the factory workers are great." TASS reports 37 UAVs shot down over Nevinnomyssk, no casualties. STERNENKO posts video of drone attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant, mayor claims "over 20 hits". Шеф Hayabusa posts video of the strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for claimed attack and visual evidence of explosions/fire, MEDIUM for number of impacts without damage as claimed by mayor; HIGH for industrial target).
  • Internal RF Issues: RF Investigation Committee reports completion of an investigation into the supply of low-quality dry rations. FSB detained 9 Russians in 8 regions for calling for military assassinations. A police officer detained in Kherson Oblast for transmitting RF troop data to Ukrainian special services. Former Tambov Oblast Governor Maxim Egorov detained for bribery. Vice-Governor of Bryansk Oblast is facing arrest for abuse of power in defensive line construction. TASS reports a decision is prepared to ban gasoline exports for 1-2 months from August 1st. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki reports court denied compensation to family of deceased soldier sent to front with injury. TASS reports investigators seeking arrest of three Interior Ministry employees accused of receiving bribes from Baza Telegram channel journalists and exceeding official authority. TASS confirms arrest of Baza editor-in-chief Gleb Trifonov. TASS reports the Moscow court arrested Aleksandr Bogashov and Eldar Belousov (Minister of Property of Chelyabinsk Oblast), and Menzhinsky (acting Head of Affairs of the Governor and Government of Chelyabinsk Oblast) on charges of abuse of power. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki reports a military police officer beat an elderly serviceman. TASS reports GAZ will transition to a four-day work week in August due to a "critical fall in the car market." TASS reports the apartment and car of an accomplice in the "Crocus" terrorist attack have been seized. Colonelcassad claims the Russian Investigative Committee has identified over 3,500 foreign mercenaries from 70 countries fighting for Ukraine. TASS reports Russian Railways (RZD) has redirected cargo traffic to alternative routes after incidents in Rostov Oblast. TASS reports that the perpetrators of the Crocus terrorist attack have been recognized as sane. RF officials in Lipetsk Oblast have declared a "red" level drone attack threat. TASS reports Bastrykin congratulated investigation authorities on their professional holiday. ASTRA reports "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) implemented in North Ossetia and other SKFO regions due to UAV threat, citing Menyaylo. TASS reports blogger Yuri Dud, declared internationally wanted, may be checked for treason. Operation Z reports FSB has a new series "Spetsy" portraying heroic work of FSB special forces. TASS reports new suspects may emerge in the case of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, accused of abuse of power. TASS reports that the Cabinet of Ministers is considering differentiating the preferential mortgage rate. WarGonzo features a speaker at a media summit discussing post-SMO reintegration and support. TASS reports Khusnullin believes key rate could be lowered to 10-12% by year-end. ASTRA reports "18+" goods will be sold on marketplaces via biometrics, indicating new internal control measures within RF. TASS reports Crocus terrorists used drugs to dull fear. Rybar reports Mikhail Gusman dismissed. Two Majors photo message from Chelyabinsk Oblast shows RC airplane, potentially related to local drone efforts. TASS reports a man was detained in Cherepovets who sold data on 27,000+ Russian citizens to Ukrainian call centers. FSB reports detention of co-conspirators of Ukrainian call centers in 4 regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS posts video messages claiming FSB and МВД detained co-conspirators of Ukrainian call centers in 4 RF regions, with video showing raids and confiscated items (firearms, cash, phones, credit cards). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Two Majors posts the same video message regarding FSB/MVD detentions of call center co-conspirators. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports the defense of Baza editor-in-chief Trifonov has appealed his arrest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Старше Эдды posts an image suggesting commercial directors are among the highest paid professions in Russia in 2025, with an average salary of 292,370 rubles/month. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Sever.Realii reports increased sales of anti-alcoholism drugs in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Kia recalling almost 80,000 Sportage crossovers in Russia due to defect. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Moscow News reports a proposal in State Duma to pay parents of schoolchildren before September 1st. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Mars ceased production of Dove and Korkunov chocolate bars in Russia from January 1, 2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a blast occurred in an apartment building in Saratov, injuring at least one person and possibly killing three. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA confirms the explosion in Saratov. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts video of the Saratov explosion aftermath. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports the Federation Council approved a law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPN services, and for transferring subscriber numbers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts information about a new Chinese law regarding property division in marriage, framed as a "new world order" - no direct military significance. (CONFIDENCE: LOW). Alex Parker Returns posts information about a new law in Russia easing language/history exams for migrants, framed critically - no direct military significance. (CONFIDENCE: LOW).
  • Tambov Oblast: Operatyvny ZSU posts videos of "cotton" (explosions/fires) in the area of the Tambov Powder Plant after today's UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports UAVs attacked the Tambov Powder Plant, citing local sources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF Airports: TASS reports flight restrictions at Vladikavkaz, Grozny, Magas, Mineralnye Vody, Nalchik, Stavropol, Sochi, and Tambov airports have been lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a Novosibirsk-Sochi flight returned due to depressurization after takeoff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Moscow Oblast: Moscow Region expects fog with visibility 100-500 meters. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Bryansk Oblast: AV БогомаZ reports 25 enemy UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Saratov Oblast: TASS reports an explosion occurred in the stairwell of a 10-story apartment building in Saratov. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports media are reporting at least one fatality in Saratov. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports three people are tentatively dead in Saratov from a gas explosion and collapse in a residential building. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Cambodia-Thailand Border: Operation Z reports "fierce clashes." TASS confirms MLRS strikes by Cambodian forces in Surin province, Thailand, and Thailand responded with an airstrike. Alex Parker Returns reports 11 civilians killed. RBK-Ukraina reports Cambodia has called on Thailand to cease hostilities. Alex Parker Returns posts video claiming Cambodia is actively using Czech RM-70 Vampir MLRS against Thailand. TASS reports the UN Security Council will hold a meeting on July 25 regarding the escalation between Cambodia and Thailand. TASS reports 14 civilians and 1 serviceman killed, 46 injured in Thailand. Operatyvny ZSU posts multiple videos confirming border conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). WarGonzo posts photos stating the border conflict "may escalate into war." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Cyprus: TASS reports uncontained wildfires and two deaths. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Kazakhstan (Aqtobe): ASTRA reports on an Azerbaijani publication identifying three military personnel allegedly involved in downing an AZAL plane near Aktau. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Lithuania: Vooin DV reports Lithuanian Armed Forces Commander stated the country has prepared infrastructure for additional US and NATO troops. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Red Sea: Colonelcassad reports UKMTO received a distress signal regarding a vessel seizure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Syria: Rybar notes a "request from Damascus." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Black Sea Region: Rybar reports a "massive UAV raid." Arkhangel Spetsnaza refers to "resumption of attacks in the Black Sea." Putin states that plans to create modern naval forces will be fully implemented. Kotsnews posts video of "Iulyasky Shtorm" naval exercise involving Northern, Pacific, Baltic Fleets and Caspian Flotilla, demonstrating fleet changes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS posts video claiming TOF forces during "July Storm" exercises conducted a missile strike on targets in the Sea of Japan, showing naval vessels and ground-based missile systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). MoD Russia posts video of "July Storm" exercises, showing naval vessels, missile launches and submarine operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Kyiv: SBU prevented a terrorist attack in a cafe in central Kyiv, apprehending a female suspect. Air raid alert announced and cleared. Israeli early warning system for air threats became operational last night. KMVA reports a meeting with International Monetary Fund representatives. Protests under the Franko Theater against law №12414 regarding NABU continue for a third day. Operation Z posts video of protests in Kyiv demanding resignation of Zelenskyy and Yermak. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Estonia: RBK-Ukraina reports Estonia is sounding the alarm about Russia moving EW systems closer to NATO. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• New Tactical Development - Lancet Intercept: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet loitering munition. Два майора posts a video analyzing Ukrainian claims. Шеф Hayabusa posts video of intercept. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - visually plausible and multiple sources).
• New RF Naval Commissioning: MoD Russia posts video of Putin participating in a ceremony for raising the naval ensign on the 'Knyaz Pozharsky' nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Information Operation - "Satanists in AFU": Colonelcassad posts video and multiple photos, including ritualistic items and a pentagram tapestry, with the caption "Satanists in the AFU. Nothing new." Операция Z disseminates "Военкоры Русской Весны" content claiming Russia banned "Satanist-Nazis" with accompanying images and videos of occult-like objects. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for the propaganda attempt, LOW - for factual basis).
• RF Information Operation - "Chemical Weapon Use": Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video of GUR emblem with text overlays "NOW I WILL POISON WITH GAS" and "The occupiers continue to use chemical weapons." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for the GUR message, LOW for independent verification).
• New US Aid Package to Ukraine: RBK-Ukraina and Operatyvny ZSU report US approval of a new military package for Ukraine worth $330 million, including air defense (PPO) and self-propelled artillery units (SAU). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports the US approval. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Starlink Outage: Operatyvny ZSU reports that Elon Musk stated Starlink operations will be restored soon. Confirmed Starlink outage affecting communication along the entire front line. Operation Z reports the global Starlink outage was largely resolved within 2.5 hours and was related to software issues, according to SpaceX VP Michael Nichols. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Israel-Palestine Recognition: Israel condemns France's decision to recognize Palestine as a state, viewing it as "a reward for terror" and a threat to its existence, according to Netanyahu. RBK-Ukraina reports Rubio did not support Macron regarding his plans to recognize Palestine as a state. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operation Z posts information regarding the split in the West due to US/Israel criticism of France for recognizing Palestine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukraine Internal Political/Security: RBK-Ukraina reports that Yaroslav Rushchyshyn, a People's Deputy from Lviv, died in a car accident. RBK-Ukraina photo messages show reactions from "Holos" faction deputies. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos showing public protests against the NABU/SAP reform bill. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video of President Zelenskyy stating that everyone with access to state secrets, including in NABU, SAP, DBR, and National Police, must undergo lie detector tests. Office of the Prosecutor General reports over 100M UAH transferred to ARMA from corruption case. Vooin DV reports Zelenskyy submitted bill canceling changes to anti-corruption organs' independent status. RBK-Ukraina reports on new law on NABU/SAP: Zelenskyy disclosed the criteria for polygraph tests. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina posts an image captioned: "Zelenskyy replied why he did not conduct a dialogue on the law on NABU and SAP." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina posts an image captioned: "Eurointegration will not be derailed: Zelenskyy promises a decision on NABU and SAP." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy held a meeting with journalists. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports Zelenskyy wants to appeal to European allies for funding to increase Ukrainian military salaries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina posts an image captioned: "What happens if the Rada fails the new NABU bill: Zelenskyy's answer." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa posts a video with text overlays discussing NABU and SAP, protests, and financial figures, appearing critical of funding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy responded to RF demands to return "Russian children" and "Kursk Oblast residents." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports Zelenskyy proposed new NABU/SAP bill due to protests. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa posts a video discussing NABU salary and public dissatisfaction with its effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU posts video of protests in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports MP Gerashchenko stated Zelenskyy's new NABU bill was submitted to Rada with procedural violations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russia Internal Security: Igor Artamonov (presumably an official) issues a warning about a UAV attack threat in Yelets and Yelets district. TASS reports that a "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) has been introduced in North Ossetia and other regions of the North Caucasus Federal District. TASS reports temporary flight restrictions introduced in airports of Vladikavkaz, Grozny, Magas, Mineralnye Vody, Nalchik, Stavropol, Sochi, and Tambov. TASS reports Moscow court arrested businessman Moshkovich's bank accounts (approx. 3 billion rubles). FSB reports detention of co-conspirators of Ukrainian call centers in 4 regions. TASS reports a man detained in Cherepovets who sold data on 27,000+ Russian citizens to Ukrainian call centers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports 20 people arrested in Russia on a remote fraud case, with FSB claiming they were supervised by Ukrainian call centers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Sever.Realii reports 20 people arrested in Russia for remote fraud, FSB claims they were overseen by Ukrainian call centers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Iran Nuclear Program: WSJ reports Iran decided to resume cooperation with IAEA on its nuclear program. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• US Foreign Aid: RBK-Ukraina reports Trump signed a law canceling $9 billion in foreign aid and public broadcasting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Armenia Internal Politics: TASS reports Armenian Union President Ara Abrahamyan states Pashinyan's call to seize Catholicos Garegin II's residence devalues the Armenian Apostolic Church and is a strategic mistake. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Operational Summary (RF): Два майора posts a morning summary for 25 July 2025. Рыбарь posts a chronicle of the Special Military Operation for 24 July. "Two Majors" posts an analysis regarding Rybar, indicating continued milblogger activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Space Launch: TASS reports launch of Soyuz-2.1b with two heliogeophysical satellites from Vostochny Cosmodrome. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Serbia: RBK-Ukraina reports Serbia named conditions for supporting sanctions against Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Germany: RBK-Ukraina reports Germany wants to create the strongest army in Europe, with up to 40,000 new fighters annually. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Mariupol: Mash na Donbasse posts images showing the drying up of the Starokrymske Reservoir, which supplies Mariupol with water. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Crimea: GUR cyber specialists conducted a "digital strike" against the occupation administration of Crimea, destroying all data on "government" servers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Western Aid to Ukraine: Operatyvny ZSU reports the first Patriot battery promised by Trump, along with missiles, has arrived in Ukraine, citing The Telegraph. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the arrival of a Patriot system and interceptor missiles from Germany, citing The Telegraph. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Patriot system and additional missiles have arrived in Ukraine, citing The Telegraph. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russia Production of Missiles: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russia plans to use Austrian-made components for missiles, showing a document from TRV-engineering. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• RF (Amur Oblast): Taiga and mountainous terrain complicate search efforts for An-24 crash. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF (Volgograd Oblast): Hurricane downed 8 high-voltage power line poles, leaving parts of settlements without electricity and water. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF (Moscow/Moscow Oblast): "Tropical rains" have reached Moscow, with severe flooding impacting urban infrastructure. Moscow region expects fog with visibility 100-500 meters. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Cyprus: Significant wildfires raging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Kyiv: Heat has led to cargo transport restrictions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• General: Widespread reports confirm a global Starlink outage affecting communication along the entire front line in Ukraine. SpaceX has confirmed a service outage. Recent updates indicate the Starlink outage was software-related and largely resolved within 2.5 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Mariupol: The drying up of the Starokrymske Reservoir indicates significant environmental and humanitarian impacts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF: Air defense (AD) remains on high alert nationwide, actively engaging and responding to missile and UAV threats (7 UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk, 90 of 103 RF UAVs downed overnight, plus 1 cruise missile; now 54/61 enemy UAVs and 0/2 Iskander-M/KN-23 suppressed). Emergency services are actively responding to significant civilian infrastructure damage and casualties. UAF General Staff provides updated RF loss figures and situational reports (172 combat engagements, 980 personnel, 2 AD systems). Ukrainian units continue fundraising for equipment. Ukrainian forces (MURAMASA, STERNENKO) continue successful drone strikes. Coordination Staff for POWs confirmed a successful prisoner exchange. Zelenskiy / Official reports Russia launched 103 attack drones and 4 missiles overnight. DSHV confirm return of paratroopers. RBK-Ukraina reports Ukraine is scaling up production of explosives. General Staff announces "Ballistics" (armor/equipment manufacturer) as a new partner in "Army+" program. General Prosecutor's Office reports detention of a deserting serviceman for attempted robbery. Oleg Syniehubov posts photos of returned POWs. President Zelenskyy approved a draft law strengthening law enforcement, anti-corruption bodies, and protecting them from Russian influence. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts drone footage demonstrating weekly destruction of over 50 Russian reconnaissance drones. STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF (SSO A) engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a new ballistic missile threat from the northeast. Butusov Plus posts videos from SBU's "A" Special Operations Center, claiming over 2100 Russian soldiers eliminated in less than a month through industrial-scale drone operations. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukraїni post video of drone strikes by 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade. ОТУ "Харків" posts new drone footage showing "Molniya" strike UAVs destroying Russian observation posts and a UAZ 'Bukhanka'. "Ukrzaliznytsia" is strengthening document control during train boarding. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that German HENSOLDT will produce TRML-4D and SPEXER 2000 radars for Ukraine for €340 million. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy changed the composition of the Stavka of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. New US aid package for $330M approved, including AD and SAU. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video and confirms localization of German Vector drone production in Ukraine. The global Starlink outage will significantly impact UAF communication and drone operations. Operatyvny ZSU posts a video of a fighter jet performing maneuvers, with a watermark 'AIR_FIGHTER'. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs north of Zaporizhzhia and in central Sumy Oblast, stating that assets are engaged to shoot them down. The Starlink outage has been largely resolved. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports that all "mopeds" (drones) detected in Poltava Oblast near Kremenchuk and Svitlovodsk are confirmed neutralized. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) over Sumy city. UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southeastern direction. UAF Air Force confirms GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts. UAF General Staff provides updated operational information as of 08:00 25.07.2025, with a map depicting combat operations on 24.07.2025, showing contested areas and enemy advances in Orikhiv and Lyman directions. UAF Air Force reports ballistic missile threat from Donetsk, which has been cleared. UAF General Staff provides an updated summary as of 08:00 25.07.2025 (photo message). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports air raid alert cleared. UAF Air Force reports ballistic missile threat cleared. STERNENKO posts a message implying continued need for drone donations. Office of the Prosecutor General reports over 100M UAH transferred to ARMA from corruption case. Operatyvny ZSU posts a video titled "Occupiers must be killed and you can help with that!" likely a call to action/recruitment. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration promotes handball for veterans. Шеф Hayabusa posts a photo message of the frontline on Pokrovsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports the SBU detained another FSB agent who helped RF shell Kharkiv, with photos showing the detention. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Air Defense forces shot down 54 out of 63 enemy UAVs overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). GUR cyber specialists conducted a "digital strike" against the occupation administration of Crimea, destroying all data on "government" servers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF General Staff posts photo messages promoting teamwork. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Coordination Staff for POWs posts a video of a returning POW, promoting his story. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy stated Russia is "getting smacked" near Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports the first Patriot battery and missiles from Germany have arrived in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the arrival of a Patriot system and missiles from Germany. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Patriot system and additional missiles have arrived in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RFU: Continues deep strike operations targeting Ukrainian territory with UAVs and missiles/GABs. Aggressively promoting claimed battlefield successes. MOD Russia claims Grad MLRS use near Krasnoarmeysk. RF AD actively engaged in defending its territory, claiming 105 UAVs downed. Conducting prisoner exchanges and information operations. MOD Russia posted video of a naval exercise ("Ilyusky Shtorm") with missile launches. Putin and Mirziyoyev expressed satisfaction with strategic partnership. MOD Russia claims strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities powering the military-industrial complex (MIC). Gleb Nikitin (Nizhny Novgorod Governor) posts photos and video of substantial humanitarian aid deliveries to RF forces, including Mavics, FPV drones, optical sights, vehicles, and a tracked robotic platform "Molot". TASS reports Putin stated plans to create modern naval forces will be fully implemented. Colonelcassad posts video of a FPV drone strike by the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade against a Ukrainian forces pickup truck in the South Donetsk direction. Kotsnews posts a video titled "Kill 'Baba Yaga'," showing drone footage. TASS reports Putin is visiting Severodvinsk. "Two Majors" posts a video of an FPV anti-air drone called "Rocket." Военкор Котенок posts a video of an FPV drone ambush on a Ukrainian Forces pickup truck. Операция Z posts video showing aerial footage of military operations near Dmytrov (Mirnohrad). Colonelcassad claims liberation of Shevchenko and Pivdenny micro-districts in Chasiv Yar by 98th VDV, and envelopment of Zemlianky micro-districts, and liberation of Yablonovka on the Konstantinovka direction. Z комитет + карта СВО posts a tactical map of Novopavlovskoe direction. Colonelcassad posts an animated map showing alleged Russian missile and drone strikes. MoD Russia posts video of Putin raising the naval ensign on the 'Knyaz Pozharsky' nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine. Basurin o glavnom posts video showing a BM-21 Grad MLRS in action, reconnaissance drone use, and mine clearance. Kadyrov_95 posts video of volunteers departing Grozny airport for the front. Russian milbloggers are confirming the global Starlink outage. TASS reports RF forces inflicted an airstrike on a UAF HQ in Kherson. RBK-Ukraina reports at least 7 explosions in the suburbs of Taganrog and Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast. New reports from ASTRA indicate residents of Novocherkassk are again reporting a large number of drones and explosions. Igor Artamonov warns of a UAV attack threat in Yelets and Yelets district. RF has declared a "red" level drone threat for Lipetsk Oblast. ASTRA reports "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) implemented in North Ossetia and other SKFO regions due to UAV threat, citing Menyaylo. Krasnodar Krai Operative Headquarters reports drone attack. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train car, injuring two, which will be leveraged for propaganda. Continued GAB launches on Sumy Oblast. НгП раZVедка reports Nevinnomyssk is reflecting the most massive attack on the North Caucasus during the entire SVO. Temporary flight restrictions in 8 RF airports. This indicates a perceived success in AD and continued high state of alert in RF border regions. НгП раZVедка praises Nevinnomyssk AD. НгП раZVедка claims "Our victory" and "stand down" in Nevinnomyssk, implying successful AD. TASS reports new suspects may emerge in the case of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, accused of abuse of power. ASTRA posts video showing alleged attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot industrial plant. RBK-Ukraina posts video showing alleged attack on a chemical plant in Stavropol Krai. RBK-Ukraina reports 45 flights delayed in Sochi airport. Colonelcassad posts videos showing strikes on enemy manpower and equipment by the 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade and the 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Division of the 5th Army Group "Vostok". Operatyvny ZSU posts videos confirming drone activity and explosions in Rostov Oblast. Colonelcassad posts videos showing FPV drone as RPG carrier. Colonelcassad posts videos showing FPV drone operators from 5th Separate Guards Tank Brigade ("Vostok" group) hitting enemy logistics in South-Donetsk direction. Igor Artamonov reports "yellow level" drone threat lifted. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video titled "Good drones didn't let Russia sleep: a series of explosions occurred in Stavropol Krai, Tambov, and Rostov Oblasts." Басурин о главном posts #МЫПОМНИМ photo messages. TASS posts video and analysis of claimed "liberation" of Novoekonomichne. TASS reports RF forces created a "fire bag" for UAF in the Yuzhny quarter of Chasiv Yar. Operational ZSU reports explosions in occupied Donetsk. Operation Z reports 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over 10 regions overnight. WarGonzo posts video of UAF rocket strikes on Donetsk. CyberBoroshno claims successful strike on RF HQ in Donetsk. TASS reports Soyuz-2.1b launch from Vostochny Cosmodrome. ASTRA reports Russia is forming a battalion of captured Ukrainian soldiers. Kotsnews and Arkhangel Spetsnaza post recruitment videos for Russian military service, offering 5.5 million rubles for the first year. MoD Russia posts video of servicemen of the 20th Guards Combined Arms Army training in assault tactics in LPR. Colonelcassad posts photo and video of claimed liberation of Novoekonomichne, showing Russian flags. TASS posts video of detention of a man in Cherepovets linked to Ukrainian call centers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russia is forming a battalion from captured Ukrainian military personnel, citing State Duma deputy Vodolatsky. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports Russia is forming a battalion from captured Ukrainian military personnel, citing State Duma deputy Vodolatsky. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Arkhangel Spetsnaza posts a photo message congratulating the 45th VDV Brigade on their holiday. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Rybar posts a video about "combat control know-how" showing Russian military officers discussing networked systems for coordinating devices and software, and tactical displays. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Basurin o glavnom posts a photo with a sledgehammer and text implying aggressive retaliation, "He who comes to us with a sword will get a sledgehammer to the head!" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Z комитет + карта СВО posts drone footage of destroyed urban area and claims from 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (5OMSBBr). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Narodnaya militsiya DNR posts video of a drone ambush on a UAF pickup truck near Novoekonomichne. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts video of a cemetery in Murmansk with many graves. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Butusov Plus posts video of Russian soldiers in a trench. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad reports 105 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed or intercepted overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS posts video of SF honoring victims of An-24 crash. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Rybar posts video showing transfer of US dollars and political influence in Moldova, indicating RF's focus on Western interference in post-Soviet states. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). MoD Russia posts video of naval operations during "July Storm" exercises. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Enhanced Deep Strike Capacity (UAV/Missile/GAB): Continued widespread and damaging UAV/missile attacks. Confirmed operational use of the FAB-3000 M-54 UMPK and UMPB-5. Use of shrapnel munitions in Cherkasy. GABs confirmed on Donetsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Kherson. RF claims of precision FAB strike on a bridge in Donetsk. MOD Russia claims high-precision strikes on energy objects feeding Ukraine's MIC and on UAV assembly and storage facilities. New RF milblogger video from Kherson shows active drone operations. MoD Russia video shows Giatsint-S artillery strikes. Narodnaya militsiya DNR posts video claiming destruction of a UAF UAV control point. Vooin DV video of FPV drone strike on a Ukrainian Forces pickup truck confirms FPV drone effectiveness. Colonelcassad's reference to UMPB D-30SN Missile System implies development or deployment of new guided munitions systems. New ballistic missile threat from the northeast. New threat of aviation weapon use in Synelnykivskyi district. Kharkiv will remain a primary target. Fighterbomber's photo message claiming three FAB-500 strikes on the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs indicates precision targeting of administrative buildings. The AFU Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetropats Oblast. The confirmed use of P-800 Onyx anti-ship missiles against ground targets in Odesa marks a significant new capability and threat to coastal infrastructure. New high-speed missile detected in Chernihiv Oblast. RF claims aviation strike on a UAF HQ in Kherson. RBK-Ukraina reports drone attacks on Rostov Oblast. Traffic over the Crimean Bridge has been suspended. New reports from ASTRA indicate residents of Novocherkassk are again reporting a large number of drones and explosions. Igor Artamonov warns of a UAV attack threat in Yelets and Yelets district. New groups of enemy strike UAVs are moving through Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk. Five "mopeds" (drones) reported flying towards Dnipro from the Synelnykivskyi direction. RF declared "red" level drone threat for Lipetsk Oblast. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train, injuring two, which will be leveraged for propaganda. Continued GAB launches on Sumy Oblast. НгП раZVедка reports Nevinnomyssk is reflecting the most massive attack on the North Caucasus during the entire SVO, indicating RF perception of escalated Ukrainian drone capabilities. ASTRA confirms explosions in Nevinnomyssk. Temporary flight restrictions in 8 RF airports due to UAV threats. TASS reports "Grad" MLRS strikes on a UAF UAV control point, manpower, and armored vehicles of UAF in Kharkiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RF launches of GABs onto Sumy Oblast. ASTRA and RBK-Ukraina videos show significant fire/explosion at Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant, confirming deep strike capability against industrial targets. UAF Air Force confirms GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts. Operatyvny ZSU posts videos confirming drone activity and explosions in Tambov Oblast, specifically at the Tambov Powder Plant, which would indicate an impact on RF's munition production capabilities if damage is significant. Colonelcassad posts videos showing FPV drone as RPG carrier. Colonelcassad posts videos showing FPV drone operators from 5th Separate Guards Tank Brigade ("Vostok" group) hitting enemy logistics in South-Donetsk direction. ASTRA reports Timashevsk railway station in Krasnodar Krai without power after UAV attack, 2 train passengers injured, confirming successful deep strike against infrastructure and civilian impact. Operatyvny ZSU reports railway station building in Peschanokopskoye, Rostov Oblast, damaged by UAV strike, confirming deep strike against infrastructure. STERNENKO posts video of drone attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant, mayor claims "over 20 hits". UAF Air Force reports ballistic missile threat from Donetsk. Operatsiya Z claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over 10 regions overnight, indicating perceived continued effectiveness of RF AD. Operational ZSU reports explosions in occupied Donetsk, implying RF "dome defense system" failure. WarGonzo posts video of UAF rocket strikes on Donetsk, acknowledging UAF capability. CyberBoroshno claims successful strike on RF HQ in Donetsk. TASS reports Soyuz-2.1b launch, indicating continued space launch capabilities. TASS reports UAF struck Zasyadko mine in Donetsk with rockets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). MoD Russia posts video claiming a Grad MLRS crew of the 44th Army Corps destroyed UAV command posts, manpower, and armored vehicles of AFU units in a forested area in Kharkiv direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts a video alleging the strike on Cherkasy was by an Iskander-K targeting an abandoned 41st Guards Tank Division infrastructure, Hotel "Vlada" (alleged UAF personnel lodging), and garage cooperatives (alleged UAV production). (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). TASS posts video claiming TOF forces during "July Storm" exercises conducted a missile strike on targets in the Sea of Japan, showing naval vessels and ground-based missile systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Narodnaya militsiya DNR posts video of a drone ambush on a UAF pickup truck near Novoekonomichne, indicating continued effective FPV drone use for anti-personnel/vehicle strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports RF dropped explosives from a drone on an ambulance crew in Dniprovskyi district of Kherson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a Ukrainian UAV dropped a munition on a parking lot near the Zaporizhzhia NPP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russia plans to use Austrian-made components for missiles, indicating continued sourcing of foreign components for its missile program. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports KAAB incoming on Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Escalated Offensive Operations (Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk / Zaporizhzhia Axes): Continued large, coordinated company-sized mechanized assaults on Pokrovsk axis. Claimed river crossing in Kharkiv. Claims of advances in Zaporizhzhia, and northward towards Stepnohirsk. Colonelcassad reports active offensive and envelopment on Kostiantynivka direction. "Operatsiya Z" and Colonelcassad continue to publish drone footage. New RF milblogger video from Konstantinovka direction confirms significant destruction and ongoing combat. RF milblogger video shows destruction of AFU vehicles near Zatyshye. "Two Majors" milbloggers claim a breakthrough to Aleksandro-Kalinovo. Операция Z claims liberation of Novoekonomichne and approach to Dmytrov (Mirnohrad). TASS claims "Center" group liberated Novoekonomichne and Zverevo. Colonelcassad claims liberation of Shevchenko and Pivdenny micro-districts in Chasiv Yar by 98th VDV, and envelopment of Zemlianky micro-districts, and liberation of Yablonovka on the Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad posts photo and video claiming liberation of Novoekonomichne by 51st Guards Combined Arms Army. Z комитет + карта СВО posts a tactical map of Novopavlovskoe direction. Alex Parker Returns claims RF forces have secured positions in Pokrovsk. Rybar posts their daily operational summary with maps. RF milblogger "Operatsiya Z" posts drone footage implying continued offensive operations on the Zaporizhzhia front. НгП раZVедка reports "Good news from Sumy direction," potentially indicating tactical gains. TASS reports that the liberation of Novoekonomichne allows RF to put pressure on AFU near Krasnyi Lyman and "seriously complicate" enemy logistics. RF Army reports cleaning up two settlements near Krasnoarmeysk in DNR. Colonelcassad's video of a storm platoon commander emphasizes tactical preparation for assaulting fortified positions. Colonelcassad posts videos showing strikes on enemy manpower and equipment by the 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade and the 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Division of the 5th Army Group "Vostok". TASS reports Russian fighters improved tactical position near Petrovsky, taking about 3.5 km of the LNR administrative border under fire control. Rybar's video analysis confirms RF advances towards Belaya Gora, Shcherbinovka, Yablonevka, and the western bank of the Seversky Donets-Donbas canal. TASS posts video showing claimed "liberation" of Novoekonomichne. TASS reports RF forces created a "fire bag" for UAF in the Yuzhny quarter of Chasiv Yar. STERNENKO reports enemy activated offensive operations in Zaporizhzhia direction, near Stepnohirsk, with tactical advances. MoD Russia posts video of 20th Guards Combined Arms Army servicemen training assault tactics in LPR. Шеф Hayabusa reports RF has occupied Novoekonomichne near Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Slivochniy Kapriz posts a video of aerial footage showing a village with damaged buildings and a soldier planting a Russian flag, captioned "25.07.25 Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoye." (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Operation Z posts video of fierce fighting near Pokrovsk, showing drone footage of targets including an M113 APC, truck, and artillery piece, with explosions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Z комитет + карта СВО posts drone footage of destroyed urban area and claims from 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (5OMSBBr). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports advisor to DPR head, Igor Kimakovsky, claims RF forces expelled UAF from positions in Zelenyy Hay, DNR. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Воин DV posts video claiming liberation of Volnoye Pole by Vostok group and 5th Army storm units, and shows SAU "Dana" firing. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Kotsnews posts video of "Fights for Zverevo. How the village was liberated," showing drone footage of destroyed buildings and vehicles, indicating an active combat zone and RF advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Starshy Edda posts video of "Fights for Zverevo. How the village was liberated," further confirming RF advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Persistent Offensive Pressure (Kharkiv/Sumy): Claimed continued creation of a "security strip" and significant UAF losses. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeast direction. UAF Air Force reports repeated launches of GABs onto Donetsk Oblast. Operatyvny ZSU and Colonelcassad post imagery suggesting active RF ground operations in Sumy Oblast. STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF (SSO A) engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. Oleg Syniehubov reports a new RF drone attack on Kharkiv. "Operatsiya Z" claims Russian army broke into Kupyansk. Операция Z posts video of Russian paratroopers advancing on the Sumy front. "Two Majors" purports to show the 155th Separate Guards Naval Infantry Brigade operating in the Sumy direction. New WarGonzo video is FPV drone footage over a wooded area with Russian and Ukrainian flags. New RF milblogger photo from "Slivochniy Kapriz" shows a map of Kupyansk direction. TASS reports RF forces inflicted strikes on a UAV control point, manpower, and armored vehicles of UAF in Kharkiv Oblast using "Grad" MLRS. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) over Sumy city. UAF Air Force confirms GAB launches on Kharkiv from the northeast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for GAB launches; MEDIUM for claimed advances/losses). Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeast direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts video of a captured Ukrainian serviceman (Chernets Vasyl Alekseevich, 22.07.1985, 156th Separate Mechanized Brigade) near Yunakivka, who states he was mobilized, feared desertion, and observed life worsening since Maidan. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports UAV in the Sumy suburbs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Intensified ISR/EW (Southern Axis): Surge in Orlan-10/30 and ZALA UAV sorties, coupled with intensified ELINT collection. Reconnaissance UAVs observed on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kherson oblast borders. Colonelcassad confirms artillery and drone operators of 35th Army are active in Zaporizhzhia. RBK-Ukraina reports Estonia is sounding the alarm about Russia moving EW systems closer to NATO. UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Bilopillia (Sumy), northern Chernihiv, and border of Kharkiv/Poltava. The global Starlink outage, regardless of its origin, has created a widespread communication disruption that RF will adapt to and attempt to exploit. New reconnaissance UAVs detected north of Zaporizhzhia city, southern Sumy, northern Chernihiv, and northern Kharkiv Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs north of Zaporizhzhia and in central Sumy Oblast. The movement of new groups of enemy strike UAVs from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk. Five "mopeds" (drones) reported flying towards Dnipro from the Synelnykivskyi direction. Enemy reconnaissance UAV detected in Black Sea waters near Zatoka, actively being engaged by UAF assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Adaptive Homeland Defense: Claims of downing 105 UAVs over Russian regions and seas, but impacts confirmed (Sochi oil depot, Timashevsk railway, Peschanokopskoye railway, Nevinnomyssky Azot, Tambov Powder Plant, Saratov residential building). Passenger flight disruptions and railway worker casualties indicate AD impacts civilian operations. Videos from Sochi confirm impact and aftermath. RF MoD summary indicates continued AD operations. "Two Majors" FPV anti-air drone video may indicate development of new counter-air capabilities. MoD Russia video shows mine action engineers demining border areas. ASTRA's report on increased checks on ship hulls in Ust-Luga port. ASTRA reports a criminal case opened against pilots for flying low over a beach. Vooin DV posts a video showing a Buk M3 system successfully destroying an aerial target. Colonelcassad posts video captioned "Tamer of 'Himars'". RBK-Ukraina reports at least 7 explosions in the suburbs of Taganrog and Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast. New reports from ASTRA indicate residents of Novocherkassk are again reporting a large number of drones and explosions. Igor Artamonov warns of a UAV attack threat in Yelets and Yelets district. RF has declared a "red" level drone threat for Lipetsk Oblast. ASTRA reports "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) implemented in North Ossetia and other SKFO regions due to UAV threat, citing Menyaylo. Krasnodar Krai Operative Headquarters reports drone attack. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train car, injuring two, a confirmed impact of Ukrainian drone activity. НгП раZVедка reports Nevinnomyssk is reflecting the most massive attack on the North Caucasus during the entire SVO, indicating RF's perceived and actual need for enhanced air defense. ASTRA confirms explosions in Nevinnomyssk. Temporary flight restrictions in 8 RF airports due to UAV threats. This indicates a perceived success in AD and continued high state of alert in RF border regions. НгП раZVедка praises Nevinnomyssk AD. НгП раZVедка claims "Our victory, stand down" in Nevinnomyssk, implying successful AD. TASS reports new suspects may emerge in the case of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, accused of abuse of power. ASTRA posts video showing alleged attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot industrial plant. RBK-Ukraina posts video showing alleged attack on a chemical plant in Stavropol Krai. RBK-Ukraina reports 45 flights delayed in Sochi airport. TASS reports all flight restrictions at 8 airports in southern Russia and Tambov have been lifted. Igor Artamonov reports "yellow level" drone threat lifted. MOD Russia claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight. ASTRA confirms MOD Russia's claim of 105 UAVs shot down. AV БогомаZ reports 25 enemy UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast overnight. TASS reports a Boeing S7 flight to Sochi is returning to Novosibirsk airport. Sever.Realii reports two injured in Krasnodar Krai due to falling drone debris. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a Novosibirsk-Sochi flight returned due to depressurization after takeoff. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts photos stating "All is well" while depicting a quiet, forested scene, likely to project normalcy amidst drone attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad reports 105 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed or intercepted overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Naval Power Projection: Naval exercise ("Ilyusky Shtorm") with missile launches. Putin states that plans to create modern naval forces will be fully implemented. Putin's visit to Severodvinsk underscores this. MoD Russia posts video of Putin raising the naval ensign on the "Knyaz Pozharsky" nuclear submarine. Kotsnews posts video of "Iulyasky Shtorm" naval exercise. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS posts video claiming TOF forces during "July Storm" exercises conducted a missile strike on targets in the Sea of Japan, showing naval vessels and ground-based missile systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). MoD Russia posts video of naval operations during "July Storm" exercises, showing surface vessels, missile launches, and submarine activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). CyberBoroshno claims successful blocking of civilian aviation by drones and railway attacks, creating problems for foreign ships at ports via new law signed by Putin for FSB checks. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Internal Security: FSB demonstrates capability to identify and apprehend individuals calling for violence against military personnel and their families. Apprehension of FSB agents by SBU and prevention of terror attack in Kyiv indicates RF continued use of covert networks for internal destabilization efforts in Ukraine. RF claims of capturing a spotter in Kherson Oblast. TASS reports on Belousov's meeting on digital and technological development in MoD. Basurin o glavnom posts multiple videos demonstrating FSB operations. TASS reports conviction of a former Klintsy City Council deputy for fraud with SVO participant money. Sever.Realii reports FSB detained nine Russians for social media comments. ASTRA reports "Andrey Sakharov Institute" and "Peace. Progress. Human Rights" declared "undesirable". TASS reports the Moscow court arrested Aleksandr Bogashov, Gleb Trifonov, Eldar Belousov, and Menzhinsky on charges of abuse of power. TASS confirms "Andrey Sakharov Institute" declared "undesirable". Два майора reports on the Investigative Committee's case against MoD employees. TASS reports on Mikhail Gusman's release from TASS. TASS reports two more police officers arrested in connection with the Baza Telegram channel case. New photos from Arkhangel Spetsnaza claim "Another minor organized crime group caught." Colonelcassad posts new FSB videos from Kherson. TASS reports an apartment and car of an accomplice in the "Crocus" terrorist attack have been seized. TASS reports that the perpetrators of the Crocus terrorist attack have been recognized as sane. TASS reports that the organizers of the "Crocus" terrorist attack acted in the interests of Ukraine. TASS reports Bastrykin congratulated investigation authorities on their professional holiday. ASTRA reports "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) implemented in North Ossetia and other SKFO regions due to UAV threat, citing Menyaylo. TASS reports blogger Yuri Dud, declared internationally wanted, may be checked for treason. Operation Z reports FSB has a new series "Spetsy" portraying heroic work of FSB special forces. TASS reports new suspects may emerge in the case of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, accused of abuse of power. Операция Z promotes a new series regarding the banning of "Satanist-Nazis" in Russia, showcasing internal crackdown. TASS reports Moscow court arrested businessman Moshkovich's bank accounts. ASTRA reports "18+" goods will be sold on marketplaces via biometrics, indicating new internal control measures within RF. TASS reports Crocus terrorists used drugs to dull fear. Rybar reports Mikhail Gusman dismissed. Two Majors photo message shows RC airplane, potentially related to internal drone hobbyist activity and thus internal security. TASS reports a man detained in Cherepovets who sold data on 27,000+ Russian citizens to Ukrainian call centers. FSB reports detention of co-conspirators of Ukrainian call centers in 4 regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS posts video messages claiming FSB and МВД detained co-conspirators of Ukrainian call centers in 4 RF regions, with video showing raids and confiscated items (firearms, cash, phones, credit cards). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Two Majors posts the same video message regarding FSB/MVD detentions of call center co-conspirators. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports the defense of Baza editor-in-chief Trifonov has appealed his arrest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Sever.Realii reports increased sales of anti-alcoholism drugs in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Kia recalling almost 80,000 Sportage crossovers in Russia due to defect. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports 20 people arrested in Russia on a remote fraud case, with FSB claiming they were supervised by Ukrainian call centers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Sever.Realii reports 20 people arrested in Russia for remote fraud, FSB claims they were overseen by Ukrainian call centers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports the Federation Council approved a law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPN services, and for transferring subscriber numbers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Logistics Support from Regional Administrations: Gleb Nikitin's post confirms significant regional government support in providing materiel. Alex Parker Returns reports a proposal to construct "dome homes" in Novorossiya, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. Kadyrov_95's video of volunteers departing Grozny airport for the front indicates continued, organized volunteer recruitment. Putin's praise for a veteran application. MoD Russia posts a video of military engineers ensuring transport accessibility in Luhansk People's Republic. TASS reports Russian Railways (RZD) has redirected cargo traffic to alternative routes after incidents in Rostov Oblast. Операция Z (Voenkor Русская Весна) posts video appealing for thermal imagers for frontline soldiers. Kotsnews and Arkhangel Spetsnaza post recruitment videos, offering financial incentives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts video of a Murmansk cemetery with hundreds of graves, likely a mobilization/casualty related event used for propaganda or morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Counter-Drone Tactics: Kotsnews' video "Kill 'Baba Yaga'" indicates RF forces are actively developing tactics to neutralize Ukrainian heavy FPV/bomber drones. "Two Majors" FPV anti-air drone "Rocket." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet. Colonelcassad's video showing the destruction of a Ukrainian KrAZ-260 military truck by drones suggests continued and effective RF counter-logistics drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: LOW for widespread impact of RF tactics, MEDIUM for experimental nature, HIGH for UAF Lancet intercept, MEDIUM for Two Majors analysis of the claim).
  • Religious Mobilization: Операция Z posts photo message about sharply increased youth interest in Orthodoxy, indicating an attempt to leverage religious sentiment for societal cohesion and support for the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Economic Strategy: TASS reports Mishustin stated RF is forming a closed-loop economy, with over half of solid municipal waste going to processing. FAS opened a case against Gazprom GNP sales due to reduced fuel sales at the exchange. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Старше Эдды posts an image suggesting commercial directors are among the highest paid professions in Russia in 2025, with an average salary of 292,370 rubles/month. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Mars ceased production of Dove and Korkunov chocolate bars in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Space Capabilities: TASS reports Soyuz-2.1b launch with two heliogeophysical satellites from Vostochny Cosmodrome. These satellites can have dual-use (civilian/military) applications, including reconnaissance or communication. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Intentions:
  • Degrade Ukrainian Combat Potential and Civilian Morale: Maintain high-tempo missile/UAV/GAB attacks. Targeting of civilian infrastructure (Odesa market, residential building, Cherkasy cemetery/civilian area, Kharkiv residential area, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia university sports hall, Konstantinovka civilian areas, Norwegian humanitarian base in Mykolaiv, Nikopol, Sumy frontline community, Polohivskyi Raion, Stepnohirsk, Saratov residential building). Civilian casualties in Krasnodar will be used to justify further retaliation. The forced evacuation of Dobropillia in Donetsk Oblast. RF's alleged use of chemical weapons, as reported by GUR. RF claims aviation strike on a UAF HQ in Kherson. New drone threats to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Pavlohrad and Samara districts) underscore this intent. Five "mopeds" (drones) reported flying towards Dnipro from the Synelnykivskyi direction. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train, injuring two, which will be leveraged for propaganda. Continued GAB launches on Sumy Oblast. Targeting of industrial sites in RF (Nevinnomyssky Azot, Tambov Powder Plant) will lead to further RF retaliation against Ukrainian targets. Continued GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts. Operatyvny ZSU posts videos and photos highlighting drone attacks on Russian territory, intended to degrade RF morale and highlight vulnerability. ASTRA reports Timashevsk railway station in Krasnodar Krai without power after UAV attack, 2 train passengers injured, directly validating this intention through civilian impact. Operatyvny ZSU reports railway station building in Peschanokopskoye, Rostov Oblast, damaged by UAV strike, further validating this intention. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a 64-year-old woman severely wounded in Stepnohirsk due to enemy attack, confirming continued targeting of civilian areas. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a 63-year-old man killed in Polohivskyi Raion due to enemy attack. RBK-Ukraina reports combined RF attack on Dniprovskyi district of Kherson. TASS reports UAF struck Zasyadko mine in Donetsk with rockets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports a direct hit on the Zasyadko mine in Kyivskyi district of Donetsk, with photos showing significant fire in an administrative building and smoke plumes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts a video alleging the strike on Cherkasy was by an Iskander-K targeting an abandoned 41st Guards Tank Division infrastructure, Hotel "Vlada" (alleged UAF personnel lodging), and garage cooperatives (alleged UAV production), indicating an intent to legitimize strikes on civilian infrastructure by falsely claiming military targets. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). RBK-Ukraina reports RF dropped explosives from a drone on an ambulance crew in Dniprovskyi district of Kherson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a Ukrainian UAV dropped a munition on a parking lot near the Zaporizhzhia NPP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports KAAB incoming on Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Achieve Tactical Breakthroughs on Key Axes: Intensify ground operations on the Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk axes. Continue offensive actions in Kharkiv/Sumy. Capitalize on claimed gains in Zaporizhzhia. New RF milblogger video from Konstantinovka direction confirms active ground operations. TASS reports Zelenskyy named the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) section of the front as the most difficult for the AFU. Alex Parker Returns' claim on Pokrovsk indicates immediate RF intent. Rybar's latest operational summary with maps indicates continued intent for advances. RF milblogger "Operatsiya Z" posts drone footage implying continued offensive operations on the Zaporizhzhia front. НгП раZVедка reports "Good news from Sumy direction," indicating an intent for offensive action. TASS reports that the liberation of Novoekonomichne allows RF to put pressure on AFU near Krasnyi Lyman and "seriously complicate" enemy logistics. RF Army reports cleaning up two settlements near Krasnoarmeysk in DNR. Colonelcassad's video of a storm platoon commander further signals intent to assault fortified positions. Colonelcassad posts videos showing strikes on enemy manpower and equipment, demonstrating continued intent for offensive action. TASS reports Russian fighters improved tactical position near Petrovsky, taking about 3.5 km of the LNR administrative border under fire control, reinforcing intent for localized tactical gains. Rybar's video analysis confirms RF intent for further advances in the Donbas, specifically towards Belaya Gora, Shcherbinovka, Yablonevka, and the western bank of the Seversky Donets-Donbas canal. TASS posts video showing claimed "liberation" of Novoekonomichne. TASS reports RF forces created a "fire bag" for UAF in the Yuzhny quarter of Chasiv Yar. STERNENKO reports enemy activated offensive operations in Zaporizhzhia direction, near Stepnohirsk, with tactical advances. MoD Russia posts video of 20th Guards Combined Arms Army servicemen training assault tactics in LPR. Шеф Hayabusa reports RF has occupied Novoekonomichne near Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Slivochniy Kapriz posts a video of aerial footage showing a village with damaged buildings and a soldier planting a Russian flag, captioned "25.07.25 Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoye." (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Operation Z posts video of fierce fighting near Pokrovsk, showing drone footage of targets including an M113 APC, truck, and artillery piece, with explosions, indicating continued offensive intent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Z комитет + карта СВО posts drone footage of destroyed urban area and claims from 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (5OMSBBr), clearly intended to show territorial gains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports advisor to DPR head, Igor Kimakovsky, claims RF forces expelled UAF from positions in Zelenyy Hay, DNR, indicating intent for localized territorial gains. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Воин DV posts video claiming liberation of Volnoye Pole by Vostok group and 5th Army storm units, clearly intended to show territorial gains and continued offensive intent. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy stated Russia is "getting smacked" near Pokrovsk, indicating UAF's intent to counter this narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kotsnews posts video of "Fights for Zverevo. How the village was liberated," indicating continued offensive intent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Starshy Edda posts video of "Fights for Zverevo. How the village was liberated," further confirming offensive intent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Pre-position for Future Offensives: Utilize intensified ISR and ELINT on the Southern Axis. New reconnaissance UAVs detected north of Zaporizhzhia city, southern Sumy, northern Chernihiv, and northern Kharkiv, confirming continued ISR preparation. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs north of Zaporizhzhia and in central Sumy Oblast. The movement of new groups of enemy strike UAVs from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk suggests a continued focus on preparing for operations in the southern and central sectors. Five "mopeds" (drones) reported flying towards Dnipro from the Synelnykivskyi direction, signaling immediate strike intent. Enemy reconnaissance UAV detected in Black Sea waters near Zatoka, actively being engaged by UAF assets, confirming continued ISR in critical areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Protect Domestic Infrastructure: Prioritize AD and counter-UAS measures. ASTRA's report on increased checks on ship hulls in Ust-Luga port. A woman's death in Kursk Oblast from a drone attack. ASTRA reports on criminal case against pilots flying low over beach. Vooin DV's video showcasing a Buk M3 system's effectiveness against HIMARS. Colonelcassad posts video captioned "Tamer of 'Himars'". RBK-Ukraina reports at least 7 explosions in the suburbs of Taganrog and Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast. Traffic over the Crimean Bridge has been suspended. TASS reports on the seizure of property from a "Crocus" terrorist attack accomplice. New reports from ASTRA indicate residents of Novocherkassk are again reporting a large number of drones and explosions. Igor Artamonov warns of a UAV attack threat in Yelets and Yelets district. RF has declared a "red" level drone threat for Lipetsk Oblast. ASTRA reports "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) implemented in North Ossetia and other SKFO regions due to UAV threat, citing Menyaylo. Krasnodar Krai Operative Headquarters reports drone attack. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train car, injuring two, a confirmed impact of Ukrainian drone activity. НгП раZVедка reports Nevinnomyssk is reflecting the most massive attack on the North Caucasus during the entire SVO, indicating RF's perceived and actual need for enhanced air defense. ASTRA confirms explosions in Nevinnomyssk. Temporary flight restrictions in 8 RF airports due to UAV threats. This reinforces intent for homeland defense. НгП раZVедка claims "Our victory, stand down" in Nevinnomyssk, reinforcing this intent. Nevinnomyssk Mayor's statement on 37 impacts with no damage indicates an attempt to downplay effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes despite visual evidence of explosions at an industrial target. RBK-Ukraina reports 45 flights delayed in Sochi airport, demonstrating intent to manage air traffic due to perceived drone threats. TASS reports all flight restrictions at 8 airports in southern Russia and Tambov have been lifted. Igor Artamonov reports "yellow level" drone threat lifted. MOD Russia claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight. ASTRA confirms MOD Russia's claim of 105 UAVs shot down. AV БогомаZ reports 25 enemy UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast overnight. TASS reports a Boeing S7 flight to Sochi is returning to Novosibirsk airport, indicating continued measures to protect civilian aviation from threats. Operatsiya Z claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over 10 regions overnight. Sever.Realii reports two injured in Krasnodar Krai due to falling drone debris. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a Novosibirsk-Sochi flight returned due to depressurization after takeoff, indicating continued efforts to ensure air safety. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). CyberBoroshno claims successful blocking of civilian aviation by drones and railway attacks, implying intent to disrupt logistics. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Alex Parker Returns posts photos stating "All is well" while depicting a quiet, forested scene, likely to project normalcy amidst drone attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a blast occurred in Saratov. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA confirms the Saratov explosion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts video of the Saratov explosion aftermath. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Manage Domestic Narrative: Project image of successful military operations and governmental care. Use internal issues to distract or promote sense of order. The An-24 crash investigation focuses on technical issues. RF will use "neuro-profiling" on youth. Arrests of citizens calling for violence against military personnel. Efforts to support SVO participants and families. Addressing water supply issues in DNR. TASS reports Klishas's push to expand benefits for "civilian wives". TASS reports rising AI-95 gasoline prices. Searches in Khimki administration and charges against Bryansk Vice-Governor. New TASS report on arrests of Domodedovo City Prosecutor and Head of Capital Construction Department of Bryansk Oblast. TASS reports decision being prepared to ban gasoline exports. Moscow news reports "demographic special forces". "ZONA SVO" video of an RF soldier criticizing bloggers. Rybar's "Patriot in short supply" post. Operation Z reports "autocracy and witch hunt" in Ukraine. Colonelcassad's claim of eliminating Brazilian mercenaries. WarGonzo's claim about HUR using a runaway businessman. TASS reports on Russian students' success. Старше Эдды's discussion of the "scandalous МВД-Медиа video." TASS video of Putin expressing condolences. Moscow news reports on a new skyscraper. AV БогомаZ's posts on a new ice palace. Rybar's post "Kaluga beats migrants". Wildberries & Russ statement on senator's proposal. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a document stating "Sanctions do not affect!". Два майора's video on veteran rehabilitation. НгП раZVедка posts a video showing Russian military personnel in front of a MiG-29. WarGonzo posts a video from "Aldan" (penal colony) unit. «Зона СВО» posts a video of a serviceman of the Luhansk People's Republic Ministry of Defense apologizing. TASS reports GAZ will transition to a four-day work week. Два майора posts a meme suggesting the importance of learning history. TASS reports that Russia will begin creating children's playgrounds. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo with commentary about Hulk Hogan. Novosti Moskvy posts a photo with text about the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) stating tattoos are 'identifiers for the devil'. TASS reports the largest Russian metallurgical plant announced a significant collapse in profits. Операция Z posts a video featuring a Latvian MEP. Colonelcassad's "Satanists in AFU" content. TASS reports on widespread Ukrainian protests against Zelenskyy and NABU/SAP. Two Majors post disinformation that Zelenskyy's bill on NABU/SAP. Alex Parker Returns posts video about an Afghan migrant incident in Omsk. ASTRA reports a criminal case against pilots. Basurin o glavnom posts a political cartoon. Operatsiya Z posts video of paratroopers advancing on the Sumy front. «Зона СВО» discusses blaming "Akhmat". MoD Russia video of military engineers in LPR. TASS reports on Mikhail Gusman's release from TASS. MoD Russia's video of an AFU POW (Eduard Zver). Alex Parker Returns posts a video alleging Ukrainian politician Bezuhla attempted to expose an agent "Tsyrskyi". Two Majors discuss the issue of purchasing military uniforms abroad. Russian milbloggers are leveraging the Starlink outage. Colonelcassad posts photos implying Ukrainian internal dissent. TASS reports Putin congratulated employees of investigative bodies. TASS reports Putin emphasizing suppression of external attempts. Colonelcassad posts video of Belousov checking automated control systems. Операция Z posts photo message featuring Elon Musk. "Narodnaya militsiya DNR" posts a video promoting pro-Russian journalists. Операция Z posts a video featuring a man who identifies himself as a serviceman of the LNR Ministry of Defense apologizing for past statements, aiming to manage internal perceptions of military personnel. TASS reports that the perpetrators of the Crocus terrorist attack have been recognized as sane, signaling internal resolution of a major security event. RF milblogger "НгП раZVедка" reports "Good news from Poltava Oblast," which is a likely domestic propaganda attempt to imply successful RF operations in an area previously not highly active. TASS reports that the organizers of the "Crocus" terrorist attack acted in the interests of Ukraine, a direct and significant piece of domestic propaganda. Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages and text regarding a "Sumy columbarium" and "Closing of America" in Ukraine, indicating another propaganda effort. Операция Z posts photo message about sharply increased youth interest in Orthodoxy, aiming to leverage religious sentiment for societal cohesion. TASS reports blogger Yuri Dud, declared internationally wanted, may be checked for treason, demonstrating ongoing intent to control information and punish perceived dissidents. Operation Z reports FSB has a new series "Spetsy" portraying heroic work of FSB special forces. RBK-Ukraina reports Trump signed a law canceling $9 billion in foreign aid and public broadcasting. Colonelcassad's video of a storm platoon commander promoting patriotic duty and military effectiveness. TASS reports new suspects may emerge in the case of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, part of the internal anti-corruption narrative. Nevinnomyssk Mayor's statement on 37 impacts with no damage is a clear attempt to control local narrative and downplay successful Ukrainian strikes, despite visual evidence of explosions at an industrial target. TASS reports over 200 people working at An-24 crash site in Tynda, part of domestic responsiveness narrative. Операция Z directly disseminates content claiming a ban on "Satanist-Nazis" in Russia, enhancing internal control narratives. TASS reports on Armenian Union President's condemnation of Pashinyan, aiming to exploit regional political divisions for broader geopolitical gain. TASS posts a photo message showing the Cabinet of Ministers discussing preferential mortgages, reinforcing the narrative of governmental care for the population. TASS reports Moscow court arrested businessman Moshkovich's bank accounts. Два майора posts a photo about Starlink outage showing RF's need for its own satellite communication. TASS posts photo message showing Indian PM Modi's achievement. Басурин о главном posts #МЫПОМНИМ photo messages. ASTRA reports "18+" goods will be sold on marketplaces via biometrics, indicating new internal control measures for the population. TASS posts video and analysis of claimed "liberation" of Novoekonomichne, reinforcing RF successes. "Two Majors" posts an analysis regarding Rybar, indicating continued milblogger activity and narrative control. TASS reports Crocus terrorists used drugs to dull fear. Rybar reports Mikhail Gusman dismissed. News of chocolate production halting (Dove/Korkunov) is a minor but visible indicator of logistical or supply chain issues, which RF will likely attempt to spin for domestic consumption. TASS reports successful launch of Soyuz-2.1b with two heliogeophysical satellites, framing it as a national achievement. ASTRA reports Russia is forming a battalion of captured Ukrainian soldiers, which will be framed as a success of prisoner re-education or a show of force against Ukraine. Kotsnews and Arkhangel Spetsnaza post recruitment videos, heavily focused on financial incentives. TASS reports UAF struck Zasyadko mine in Donetsk, which will be leveraged to portray Ukrainian aggression. Mash na Donbasse posts about the drying Starokrymske Reservoir, likely to highlight water issues under Ukrainian control or promote RF as the solution to such problems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS posts video messages claiming FSB and МВД detained co-conspirators of Ukrainian call centers in 4 RF regions, with video showing raids and confiscated items (firearms, cash, phones, credit cards), reinforcing internal security narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Two Majors posts the same video message regarding FSB/MVD detentions of call center co-conspirators, aiming to amplify the message. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Amur Oblast authorities will pay 1 million rubles to families of deceased residents from the An-24 crash, reinforcing state support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA posts video about the 1 million ruble payout to families of An-24 crash victims in Amur Oblast, also reinforcing the state support narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports the Cabinet of Ministers will pay 5 million rubles to families of deceased in the An-24 crash and that flight recorders have been found and will be transported to Moscow, reinforcing state responsiveness and investigation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Rosaviatsia and Rostransnadzor will initiate a check of Angara Airlines following the An-24 crash, projecting accountability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Старше Эдды posts an image suggesting commercial directors are among the highest paid professions in Russia in 2025, with an average salary of 292,370 rubles/month, for domestic economic reassurance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Butusov Plus posts photos suggesting a return to Stalinist cult in Russia, with children being taught that Stalin was a great strategist, indicating a long-term ideological manipulation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Arkhangel Spetsnaza posts a photo message congratulating the 45th VDV Brigade on their holiday, for morale building. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Rybar posts a video about "combat control know-how" showing Russian military officers discussing networked systems for coordinating devices and software, aiming to project technological advancement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора posts an image of recruitment for contract military service in Russian Federation security agencies, for recruitment and strength projection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Basurin o glavnom posts a photo with a sledgehammer and text implying aggressive retaliation, "He who comes to us with a sword will get a sledgehammer to the head!", promoting a hardline, aggressive narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a Novosibirsk-Sochi flight returned due to depressurization after takeoff, which will be used to reinforce state control and safety narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Moscow News reports a proposal in State Duma to pay parents of schoolchildren before September 1st, showing state care for the population. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts video of a captured Ukrainian serviceman (Chernets Vasyl Alekseevich, 22.07.1985, 156th Separate Mechanized Brigade) near Yunakivka, likely for propaganda purposes to demoralize UAF and show RF "successes." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts video of a Murmansk cemetery with hundreds of graves, likely a propaganda piece to honor fallen soldiers and promote patriotism/sacrifice. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports SF honoring An-24 crash victims. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Rybar posts video on US political influence in Moldova, for domestic consumption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts information regarding the new Chinese marriage law, implicitly critiquing Western values. (CONFIDENCE: LOW). Alex Parker Returns posts information regarding easing of migrant exams in Russia, framed critically, indicating internal dissent. (CONFIDENCE: LOW).
  • De-stabilize Ukraine Internally: Continued use of covert networks and agents. RBK-Ukraina reports that Russia is sending kidnapped Ukrainian children to the front. Moscow News reports a new Telegram scam. New FSB videos from Colonelcassad showing the interrogation of a detained individual in Kherson. TASS reporting on protests against Zelenskyy/NABU/SAP. Alex Parker Returns' video regarding Bezuhla and "Tsyrskyi". The global Starlink outage. RBK-Ukraina reports a Ukrainian People's Deputy died in a car accident; RF will likely attempt to exploit this for internal destabilization narratives. TASS reports that the organizers of the "Crocus" terrorist attack acted in the interests of Ukraine, a direct attempt to link Ukraine to terrorism. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos showing ongoing protests in Kyiv regarding the NABU/SAP reform bill, which RF will leverage to highlight internal Ukrainian political division. TASS reports a man detained in Cherepovets who sold data on 27,000+ Russian citizens to Ukrainian call centers. FSB reports detention of co-conspirators of Ukrainian call centers in 4 regions. Alex Parker Returns posts images and claims about riots in the US. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports the SBU detained another FSB agent who helped RF shell Kharkiv, with photos showing the detention. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Butusov Plus posts photos suggesting a return to Stalinist cult in Russia, with children being taught that Stalin was a great strategist, implying ideological manipulation aimed at future generations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). SBU detained a Russian spotter in Kharkiv, who reportedly expressed satisfaction with GAB attacks on the city, claiming many people were "torn apart." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports MP Gerashchenko stated Zelenskyy's new NABU bill was submitted to Rada with procedural violations, likely to sow discord. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Geopolitical Disruption: France's announced recognition of Palestine in September. RF will continue to highlight the Cambodia-Thailand border conflict. Alex Parker Returns posts video claiming Cambodia is actively using Czech RM-70 Vampir MLRS against Thailand. Israel's condemnation of France's recognition of Palestine. TASS reports the UN Security Council will hold a meeting on July 25 regarding the escalation between Cambodia and Thailand. TASS reports 14 civilians and 1 serviceman killed, 46 injured in Thailand. Operatyvny ZSU posts videos of border conflict between Cambodia and Thailand. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operation Z posts information regarding the split in the West due to US/Israel criticism of France for recognizing Palestine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). WarGonzo posts photos stating the border conflict "may escalate into war." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Nuclear Influence: WSJ report on Iran resuming cooperation with IAEA on its nuclear program. RF will leverage this development to project an image of successful diplomacy or to highlight perceived double standards in international nuclear non-proliferation efforts, potentially aiming to divert attention from its own nuclear activities or influence global nuclear policy discussions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • FPV Drone Development: Colonelcassad posts videos showing FPV drone as RPG carrier, indicating RF's intent to develop and deploy more versatile FPV drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Recruitment and Mobilization: Kotsnews and Arkhangel Spetsnaza post recruitment videos, emphasizing financial incentives for military service. ASTRA reports Russia forming a battalion of captured Ukrainian soldiers, indicating an intent to use POWs in combat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russia is forming a battalion from captured Ukrainian military personnel, citing State Duma deputy Vodolatsky. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports Russia is forming a battalion from captured Ukrainian military personnel, citing State Duma deputy Vodolatsky. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора posts an image of recruitment for contract military service in Russian Federation security agencies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Cyber Warfare: GUR cyber specialists conducted a "digital strike" against the occupation administration of Crimea, destroying all data on "government" servers. This indicates RF's continued intent to target Ukrainian digital infrastructure and, conversely, Ukraine's intent to conduct offensive cyber operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS DG Kondrashov discusses threats of disinformation and AI, suggesting an intent to engage in related information warfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Confirmed FAB-3000 and UMPB-5 Deployment: Operational use of FAB-3000 M-54 and UMPB-5 in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy, and implied across affected areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Shift to Mechanized Assaults on Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk Axis: Transition from dismounted infantry to company-sized mechanized assaults, notably involving 76th VDV Division and 98th VDV Division in Chasiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Slivochniy Kapriz posts a video of aerial footage showing a village with damaged buildings and a soldier planting a Russian flag, captioned "25.07.25 Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoye," which is intended to show RF territorial gains. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Operation Z posts video of fierce fighting near Pokrovsk, showing drone footage of targets including an M113 APC, truck, and artillery piece, with explosions, indicating continued offensive adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Z комитет + карта СВО posts drone footage of destroyed urban area and claims from 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (5OMSBBr). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Воин DV posts video claiming liberation of Volnoye Pole by Vostok group and 5th Army storm units. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Kotsnews posts video of "Fights for Zverevo. How the village was liberated," showing aerial footage of destroyed settlement, indicating active combat zone and RF adaptation to capture terrain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Starshy Edda posts video of "Fights for Zverevo. How the village was liberated," further confirming RF adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Intensified ISR/ELINT Ahead of Operations: Surge in ISR and ELINT activity on Southern Axis. Reconnaissance UAVs observed more widely. The global Starlink outage, regardless of its origin, has created a widespread communication disruption that RF will adapt to and attempt to exploit. RBK-Ukraina posts photo message warning of RF reconnaissance drones. New reconnaissance UAVs detected north of Zaporizhzhia city, southern Sumy, northern Chernihiv, and border of Kharkiv/Poltava. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs north of Zaporizhzhia and in central Sumy Oblast. The movement of new groups of enemy strike UAVs from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk indicates an adaptation to focus ISR and strike efforts in new or expanded areas. Five "mopeds" (drones) reported flying towards Dnipro from the Synelnykivskyi direction. Enemy reconnaissance UAV detected in Black Sea waters near Zatoka, actively being engaged by UAF assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeast direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports UAV in the Sumy suburbs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Confirmed Civilian Infrastructure Targeting in Odesa, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Konstantinovka, Nikopol, Sumy, Polohivskyi Raion, Stepnohirsk, Kherson, Saratov: Direct hits on civilian areas and infrastructure. Attack on a Norwegian humanitarian base in Mykolaiv. New drone attacks reported on Kharkiv and Synelnykivskyi district. Fighterbomber's photo of claimed FAB-500 strikes on МВД building. Serhiy Lysak reports damage to residential buildings, a medical facility, and a lyceum in Nikopol. ASTRA reports Timashevsk railway station in Krasnodar Krai without power after UAV attack, 2 train passengers injured, confirming successful targeting of civilian infrastructure within RF. Operatyvny ZSU reports railway station building in Peschanokopskoye, Rostov Oblast, damaged by UAV strike, confirming successful targeting of civilian infrastructure within RF. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a 64-year-old woman severely wounded in Stepnohirsk due to enemy attack. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a 63-year-old man killed in Polohivskyi Raion due to enemy attack. RBK-Ukraina reports combined RF attack on Dniprovskyi district of Kherson with aftermath video showing damaged vehicles/buildings and bloodstains. TASS reports UAF struck Zasyadko mine in Donetsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports a direct hit on the Zasyadko mine in Kyivskyi district of Donetsk, with photos showing significant fire in an administrative building and smoke plumes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts a video alleging the strike on Cherkasy was by an Iskander-K targeting an abandoned 41st Guards Tank Division infrastructure, Hotel "Vlada" (alleged UAF personnel lodging), and garage cooperatives (alleged UAV production), indicating an adaptation to justify strikes on civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). RBK-Ukraina reports RF dropped explosives from a drone on an ambulance crew in Dniprovskyi district of Kherson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a Ukrainian UAV dropped a munition on a parking lot near the Zaporizhzhia NPP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports KAAB incoming on Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a blast occurred in Saratov. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA confirms the Saratov explosion and casualty. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts video of the Saratov explosion aftermath. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Sustained Drone Attacks on Critical Infrastructure within RF: Multiple video confirmations of impacts and fires at Sochi oil depot. ASTRA's report on increased checks on ship hulls in Ust-Luga port. A woman's death in Kursk Oblast from a drone attack. ASTRA reports on criminal case against pilots flying low over beach. RBK-Ukraina reports at least 7 explosions in the suburbs of Taganrog and Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast. New reports from ASTRA indicate residents of Novocherkassk are again reporting a large number of drones and explosions. Igor Artamonov warns of a UAV attack threat in Yelets and Yelets district. RF has declared a "red" level drone threat for Lipetsk Oblast. ASTRA reports "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) implemented in North Ossetia and other SKFO regions due to UAV threat, citing Menyaylo. Krasnodar Krai Operative Headquarters reports drone attack. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train car, injuring two, a confirmed impact of Ukrainian drone activity. НгП раZVедка reports Nevinnomyssk is reflecting the most massive attack on the North Caucasus during the entire SVO, indicating RF's perceived and actual need for enhanced air defense. ASTRA confirms explosions in Nevinnomyssk. Temporary flight restrictions in 8 RF airports due to UAV threats. ASTRA and RBK-Ukraina videos show explosions and fire at Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant, confirming successful Ukrainian drone strikes on industrial targets within RF territory, demonstrating a continued adaptation to deep strike. RBK-Ukraina reports 45 flights delayed in Sochi airport, further indicating adaptation to drone threats. ASTRA video shows Nevinnomyssk mayor claiming "37 hits, no losses, no destruction," a clear adaptation to control public narrative after a significant strike. Operatyvny ZSU posts videos confirming drone activity and explosions in Tambov Oblast, specifically at the Tambov Powder Plant, indicating continued adaptation to deep strike against industrial targets within RF. TASS reports all flight restrictions at 8 airports in southern Russia and Tambov have been lifted, indicating RF's adaptive response to resume air traffic quickly after drone threats. Igor Artamonov reports "yellow level" drone threat lifted. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video titled "Good drones didn't let Russia sleep: a series of explosions occurred in Stavropol Krai, Tambov, and Rostov Oblasts." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). CyberBoroshno claims successful blocking of civilian aviation by drones and railway attacks. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). ASTRA reports UAVs attacked the Tambov Powder Plant. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Emerging RF Counter-UAV Tactics: Reported downing of UAF hexacopter by FPV-drone with Kalashnikov (if verified). Kotsnews video "Kill 'Baba Yaga'". "Two Majors" FPV anti-air drone "Rocket." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet. Colonelcassad posts video claiming a ZALA Lancet destroyed a 105-mm L119 Howitzer in Kharkiv Oblast. Colonelcassad's video showing the destruction of a Ukrainian KrAZ-260 military truck by drones suggests continued and effective RF counter-logistics drone operations. Colonelcassad posts videos showing FPV drone as RPG carrier, indicating a new adaptation for offensive drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: LOW for widespread impact of RF tactics, MEDIUM for experimental nature, HIGH for UAF Lancet intercept, MEDIUM for Two Majors analysis of the claim). Rybar posts a video about "combat control know-how" showing Russian military officers discussing networked systems for coordinating devices and software, indicating adaptation in command and control for drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Field Repair and Modification: "Rembat" modifying UAZ vehicles into "forward-edge transporters." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Escalation of Cross-Border Attacks in Southeast Asia (RF narrative): RF reporting of MLRS strikes by Cambodian forces on Thailand. Rybar's new post emphasizes the "escalation." Kotsnews video emphasizes external instigation. Colonelcassad posts a map and photos confirming escalation. Alex Parker Returns posts video claiming Cambodia is actively using Czech RM-70 Vampir MLRS against Thailand. TASS reports the UN Security Council will hold a meeting on July 25 regarding the escalation between Cambodia and Thailand. TASS reports 14 civilians and 1 serviceman killed, 46 injured in Thailand. Operatyvny ZSU posts multiple videos confirming conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). WarGonzo posts photos stating the border conflict "may escalate into war." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Propaganda Re-framing of "Assault Groups": Rybar's use of "super-small assault groups." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Targeting Ukrainian UAV Production/Storage: RF MoD specifically claimed strikes on UAV assembly/storage workshops. Narodnaya militsiya DNR claims destruction of a UAF UAV control point. Colonelcassad posts video of claimed destruction of a UAF UAV control point in Poltavka. TASS reports "Grad" MLRS strikes in Kharkiv Oblast against UAF UAV control point. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). MoD Russia posts video claiming a Grad MLRS crew of the 44th Army Corps destroyed UAV command posts, manpower, and armored vehicles of AFU units in a forested area in Kharkiv direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Increased Depth of Sabotage Operations in Ukraine: The SBU's prevention of a terror attack in Kyiv, following the Mykolaiv operation. The alleged capture of a "spotter" in Kherson. Basurin o glavnom videos confirming arrests of collaborators. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the activation of the Israeli early warning system in Kyiv. New FSB videos from Colonelcassad showing the interrogation of a detained individual in Kherson. TASS reports a man detained in Cherepovets who sold data on 27,000+ Russian citizens to Ukrainian call centers. FSB reports detention of co-conspirators of Ukrainian call centers in 4 regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS posts video messages claiming FSB and МВД detained co-conspirators of Ukrainian call centers in 4 RF regions, with video showing raids and confiscated items (firearms, cash, phones, credit cards), indicating a continued adaptation in counter-sabotage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Two Majors posts the same video message regarding FSB/MVD detentions of call center co-conspirators, aiming to amplify the message. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports the SBU detained another FSB agent who helped RF shell Kharkiv, with photos showing the detention. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). SBU detained a Russian spotter in Kharkiv, who reportedly expressed satisfaction with GAB attacks on the city, claiming many people were "torn apart." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports 20 people arrested in Russia on a remote fraud case, with FSB claiming they were supervised by Ukrainian call centers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Sever.Realii reports 20 people arrested in Russia for remote fraud, FSB claims they were overseen by Ukrainian call centers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Use of Anti-Ship Missiles for Ground Attack: The "previous daily report" confirms the first operational use of P-800 Onyx anti-ship missiles against ground targets in Odesa. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Shift to Small-Unit Probing Attacks with UAV/EW Support: The "previous daily report" indicates a marked decrease in large-scale mechanized assaults across the front, replaced by coordinated small-unit (squad/platoon) probing attacks heavily enabled by FPV drone swarms and localized EW suppression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Concentration of Elite Units for Specific Objectives: The confirmed consolidation of 98th VDV Division elements east of Chasiv Yar for an imminent assault. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Shift in Operational Tempo: The decrease in offensive tempo along the Avdiivka axis, likely for reconstitution. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• Movement of EW Systems towards NATO: RBK-Ukraina reports Estonia's alarm regarding Russia moving EW systems closer to NATO. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Dehumanization Propaganda: Colonelcassad's new "Satanists in AFU" propaganda. Операция Z disseminates "Военкоры Русской Весны" content claiming Russia banned "Satanist-Nazis," expanding this propaganda narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Butusov Plus posts photos suggesting a return to Stalinist cult in Russia, with children being taught that Stalin was a great strategist, indicating an adaptation in ideological manipulation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Alleged Chemical Weapon Use: The GUR message regarding RF use of chemical weapons, if verified, represents a severe escalation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for GUR claim, LOW for independent verification).
• RF MoD Internal Corruption: Two Majors report on the Investigative Committee opening a case against MoD employees. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• LPR Infrastructure Development: MoD Russia video on military engineers working on roads in Luhansk People's Republic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Internal Personnel Management: The dismissal of Mikhail Gusman from TASS, linked to his trip to Azerbaijan. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• New AD System Effectiveness (RF): Vooin DV posts a video showing a Buk M3 system successfully destroying an aerial target. Colonelcassad posts video captioned "Tamer of 'Himars'". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Automated Control Systems: Colonelcassad posts a video of RF Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov checking on the implementation of automated control systems in the combat zone. TASS reports Russian Railways (RZD) has redirected cargo traffic to alternative routes after incidents in Rostov Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Rybar posts a video about "combat control know-how" showing Russian military officers discussing networked systems for coordinating devices and software, indicating an adaptation for improved command and control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Internal Military Discipline: Операция Z posts a video featuring a man who identifies himself as a serviceman of the LNR Ministry of Defense apologizing for past statements, indicating efforts to manage and control internal military discipline and image. Colonelcassad's video of a storm platoon commander emphasizes strict preparation and discipline for offensive operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). MoD Russia posts video of 20th Guards Combined Arms Army servicemen training assault tactics in LPR, highlighting new recruitment and training. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts video of a captured Ukrainian serviceman stating he feared desertion and observed life worsening since Maidan, used for propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Starlink Outage (Software Related): SpaceX VP Michael Nichols confirms the global Starlink outage was due to software and largely resolved. This indicates RF likely did not achieve a kinetic or EW-based disruption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Crocus Attack Link to Ukraine (RF Claim): TASS reports that case materials indicate the "Crocus" attack organizers acted in Ukraine's interest. This is a significant adaptation in RF information operations, attempting to directly link Ukraine to a major domestic terror event. TASS also claims Crocus terrorists used drugs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim, LOW for factual basis).
• RF Internal Security Measures: TASS reports a "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) has been introduced in North Ossetia and other regions of the North Caucasus Federal District. ASTRA reports "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) implemented in North Ossetia and other SKFO regions. Temporary flight restrictions in 8 RF airports due to UAV threats. TASS reports new suspects may emerge in the case of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, indicating further internal investigations and adaptations to address corruption/abuse of power. ASTRA reports "18+" goods will be sold on marketplaces via biometrics, indicating new internal control measures within RF. TASS reports a man was detained in Cherepovets who sold data on 27,000+ Russian citizens to Ukrainian call centers. FSB reports detention of co-conspirators of Ukrainian call centers in 4 regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS posts video messages claiming FSB and МВД detained co-conspirators of Ukrainian call centers in 4 RF regions, with video showing raids and confiscated items (firearms, cash, phones, credit cards), indicating a continued adaptation in internal security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Two Majors posts the same video message regarding FSB/MVD detentions of call center co-conspirators, aiming to amplify the message. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Sever.Realii reports increased sales of anti-alcoholism drugs in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Kia recalling almost 80,000 Sportage crossovers in Russia due to defect. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports the Federation Council approved a law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPN services, and for transferring subscriber numbers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Religious Mobilization: Операция Z posts photo message about sharply increased youth interest in Orthodoxy, indicating an adaptation to leverage religious sentiment for societal cohesion and support for the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Increased Judicial Action on Businessmen: TASS reports Moscow court arrested businessman Moshkovich's bank accounts, indicating an adaptation in internal security/corruption crackdown. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Space Launch: TASS reports Soyuz-2.1b launch with two heliogeophysical satellites. This represents continued capability in space, which can support military operations through ISR, communication, or navigation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS posts video claiming TOF forces during "July Storm" exercises conducted a missile strike on targets in the Sea of Japan, showing naval vessels and ground-based missile systems, which demonstrates continued military capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Policy Reversal (Ukraine): Vooin DV reports Zelenskyy submitted a bill canceling changes to anti-corruption organs' independent status. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports Zelenskyy proposed new NABU/SAP bill due to protests. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Use of POWs: ASTRA reports Russia is forming a battalion of captured Ukrainian soldiers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russia is forming a battalion from captured Ukrainian military personnel, citing State Duma deputy Vodolatsky. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports Russia is forming a battalion from captured Ukrainian military personnel, citing State Duma deputy Vodolatsky. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Cyber Warfare: GUR cyber specialists conducted a "digital strike" against the occupation administration of Crimea, destroying all data on "government" servers. This indicates an adaptation to offensive cyber operations targeting RF occupation infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS DG Kondrashov discusses threats of disinformation and AI, suggesting an adaptation in strategic communication by RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Procurement of Foreign Components: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russia plans to use Austrian-made components for missiles, indicating continued efforts to circumvent sanctions and procure critical components from abroad for its military production. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Munitions Access (GABs): Confirmed use of FAB-3000 and UMPB-5 across multiple axes. Continued GAB launches on Sumy Oblast. Continued GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for munition stocks). Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of GABs onto Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports KAAB incoming on Kharkiv, indicating continued RF munition use. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Munitions Access (UAV/Missile): Persistent and widespread strikes confirm continued access. Reports of Chinese engines for drones smuggled into Russia. НгП раZVедка's video of Russian military personnel receiving electronic devices. Colonelcassad's video showing a destroyed ammunition truck suggests RF drone operators are adapting to targeting UAF logistics and ammunition supplies. Operatyvny ZSU posts videos confirming drone activity and explosions in Tambov Oblast, specifically at the Tambov Powder Plant (a major gunpowder producer), which would indicate an impact on RF's munition production capabilities if damage is significant. Операция Z (Voenkor Русская Весна) posts video appealing for thermal imagers for frontline soldiers, suggesting a continued need for specific equipment at the unit level despite overall production. Operational ZSU reports explosions in occupied Donetsk, which, if related to munition depots, could indicate a localized impact on RF munition stocks. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for munition stocks, HIGH for sanction circumvention). ASTRA reports UAVs attacked the Tambov Powder Plant. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russia plans to use Austrian-made components for missiles, indicating continued efforts to sustain missile production. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Homefront Stability Efforts: Payments to displaced Kursk residents. Demonstration of rembat activity. Measures to support SVO participants and families. Addressing water supply issues in DNR. TASS reports Klishas's push to expand benefits for "civilian wives". TASS reports rising AI-95 gasoline prices. Searches in Khimki administration and charges against Bryansk Vice-Governor. New TASS report on arrests of Domodedovo City Prosecutor and Head of Capital Construction Department of Bryansk Oblast. TASS reports decision being prepared to ban gasoline exports. Moscow news reports "demographic special forces". Gleb Nikitin's post on humanitarian aid for RF units. TASS reports that Mars is working to resolve the suspension of product shipments by X5 Group. AV БогомаZ's posts on construction projects. TASS reports Ministry of Health amendments on sick leave. Wildberries & Russ statement on senator's proposal. MoD Russia video on demining Belgorod border area. Alex Parker Returns reports a proposal to construct "dome homes". TASS reports GAZ moving to a four-day work week. RBK-Ukraina reports the largest Russian metallurgical plant announced a significant collapse in profits. TASS reports the apartment and car of an accomplice in the "Crocus" terrorist attack have been seized. TASS reports Russian Railways (RZD) has redirected cargo traffic to alternative routes after incidents in Rostov Oblast. TASS reports that the perpetrators of the Crocus terrorist attack have been recognized as sane, implying a conclusion to a significant internal security investigation. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train, injuring two, requiring logistical response. TASS reports Amur Oblast Governor Vasily Orlov is in Tynda to assess the An-24 crash, highlighting a significant internal logistics/response event. TASS reports new suspects may emerge in the case of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, reflecting ongoing efforts to manage internal issues. TASS reports over 200 people working at An-24 crash site in Tynda, demonstrating continued logistical commitment to crash response. TASS posts a photo message showing the Cabinet of Ministers discussing preferential mortgages, indicating a focus on social welfare that aims to improve public sentiment. TASS reports Mishustin stated RF is forming a closed-loop economy. TASS reports Khusnullin believes key rate could be lowered to 10-12% by year-end. News of chocolate production halting (Dove/Korkunov) is a minor but visible indicator of logistical or supply chain issues. Mash na Donbasse posts about the drying Starokrymske Reservoir, which feeds Mariupol, indicating logistical challenges for water supply in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Amur Oblast authorities will pay 1 million rubles to families of deceased residents from the An-24 crash. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA posts video about the 1 million ruble payout to families of An-24 crash victims in Amur Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports the Cabinet of Ministers will pay 5 million rubles to families of deceased in the An-24 crash and that flight recorders have been found and will be transported to Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Rosaviatsia and Rostransnadzor will initiate a check of Angara Airlines following the An-24 crash. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Старше Эдды posts an image suggesting commercial directors are among the highest paid professions in Russia in 2025, with an average salary of 292,370 rubles/month. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Moscow News reports a proposal in State Duma to pay parents of schoolchildren before September 1st. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Mars ceased production of Dove and Korkunov chocolate bars in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports the flight recorders of the crashed An-24 are damaged but likely suitable for decoding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports that the Amur Oblast Governor states the An-24 crash causes could be technical malfunction or pilot error. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Unit-Level Sustainment: Continued appeals for drones by RF milbloggers. Dry rations investigation. Arkhangel Spetsnaza appeals for donations for "VDV Day". Butusov Plus reports on Russian military widow being put on wanted list. Alex Parker Returns posts soliciting donations for SVO. New "Two Majors" video shows RF personnel expressing gratitude. WarGonzo video of soldier losing a foot. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki report on court denying compensation. Two Majors' video showcasing a tactical medical kit ("HEALER" IFAK). Два майора posts a video depicting individuals with prosthetic limbs. WarGonzo posts a video from "Aldan" (penal colony) unit. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki reports a military police officer beat an elderly serviceman. The global Starlink outage will significantly impact logistical challenges. Colonelcassad's video of a storm platoon commander emphasizes the importance of proper medical and combat loadout, suggesting continued focus on individual soldier sustainment. Операция Z (Voenkor Русская Весна) posts video appealing for thermal imagers for frontline soldiers, indicating specific unit-level equipment needs. ASTRA reports Russia forming a battalion of captured Ukrainian soldiers, which may impact sustainment through forced labor or direct combat use. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Arkhangel Spetsnaza posts a photo message congratulating the 45th VDV Brigade on their holiday. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора posts an image of recruitment for contract military service in Russian Federation security agencies, indicating recruitment needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts video of a Murmansk cemetery with hundreds of graves, which could indicate a need for unit-level sustainment for casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Oleksandr Vilkul shares photos of children of servicemen attending a summer camp, which suggests a welfare initiative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Financial Stability: Alfa-Bank app failure. TASS reports that investigators are seeking the arrest of three Interior Ministry employees accused of receiving bribes from Baza Telegram channel journalists. TASS reports the arrest of Gleb Trifonov. The General Prosecutor's Office reports on "PonaD 200 million UAH of losses!". TASS reports Moscow court arrested businessman Moshkovich's bank accounts. Office of the Prosecutor General reports over 100M UAH transferred to ARMA from corruption case. FAS opened a case against Gazprom GNP sales. (CONFIDENCE: LOW). TASS reports the defense of Baza editor-in-chief Trifonov has appealed his arrest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Economic Pressures: X5 (retailer) stopping Mars product shipments. Moscow news reports tens of thousands of teachers could be without work. Strike at Turkish NPP built by Rosatom. TASS confirms X5 Group expects Mars product remnants to end by August-September. TASS reports a potential gasoline export ban. RBK-Ukraina reports the largest Russian metallurgical plant announced a significant collapse in profits. ASTRA and RBK-Ukraina videos showing explosions at Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant indicate damage to industrial production capacity, which could impact RF economy/logistics. News of chocolate production halting (Dove/Korkunov) is a minor but visible indicator of logistical or supply chain issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Kia recalling almost 80,000 Sportage crossovers in Russia due to defect. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Mars ceased production of Dove and Korkunov chocolate bars in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• Responsive Air Operations: Continued and precise nature of UAV/missile targeting and successful FAB-3000/UMPB-5 deployment. Claims of RF drones destroying UAF UAV control points. Colonelcassad's animated map of recent strikes. MoD Russia's video showing a drone strike on a dugout and a pillbox. TASS reports "Grad" MLRS strikes in Kharkiv Oblast against UAF UAV control point. UAF Air Force reports RF launches of GABs onto Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) over Sumy city. НгП раZVедка's claim of "Our victory, stand down" in Nevinnomyssk, suggesting effective AD C2 response. UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southeastern direction. UAF Air Force confirms GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts. MOD Russia claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight, indicating effective AD C2. AV БогомаZ reports 25 enemy UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast overnight, indicating effective AD C2. UAF Air Force reports ballistic missile threat from Donetsk, indicating continued RF capability for responsive missile launches. Operational ZSU reports explosions in occupied Donetsk, implying RF "dome defense system" failure, which indicates a localized C2 failure for AD in Donetsk. WarGonzo posts video of UAF rocket strikes on Donetsk, acknowledging UAF success. CyberBoroshno claims successful strike on RF HQ in Donetsk. TASS reports UAF struck Zasyadko mine in Donetsk with rockets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). MoD Russia posts video claiming a Grad MLRS crew of the 44th Army Corps destroyed UAV command posts, manpower, and armored vehicles of AFU units in a forested area in Kharkiv direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeast direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS posts video claiming TOF forces during "July Storm" exercises conducted a missile strike on targets in the Sea of Japan, showing naval vessels and ground-based missile systems, which demonstrates effective C2 in naval exercises. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports RF dropped explosives from a drone on an ambulance crew in Dniprovskyi district of Kherson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a Ukrainian UAV dropped a munition on a parking lot near the Zaporizhzhia NPP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports KAAB incoming on Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ground Operations C2 (Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk): Shift to coordinated company-sized mechanized assaults. Colonelcassad's claims of tactical advances and envelopment in Chasiv Yar. Colonelcassad's claim of Novoekonomichne liberation by 51st Guards Combined Arms Army. WarGonzo posts video of RF Minister of Defense Belousov checking implementation of automated control systems. Colonelcassad posts a video of representatives of military groups discussing the special military operation. RF milblogger "Operatsiya Z" posts drone footage implying continued and coordinated offensive operations. Kadyrov_95 posts video showing Akhmat Special Forces soldiers assembling a drone in a forest. Voenkor Kotenok posts a map of Pokrovskoye (Krasnoarmeyskoye) direction. Colonelcassad posts a video of RF Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov checking on the implementation of automated control systems. "Narodnaya militsiya DNR" posts a video regarding media operations in a conflict zone. TASS reports that the liberation of Novoekonomichne allows RF to put pressure on AFU near Krasnyi Lyman and "seriously complicate" enemy logistics, demonstrating RF's C2 understanding of the tactical and logistical implications of their advances. Colonelcassad's video of a storm platoon commander further solidifies RF intent for sustained ground pressure. Colonelcassad posts videos showing specific RF brigades/regiments (336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade and the 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Division of the 5th Army Group "Vostok") conducting strikes on enemy manpower and equipment, indicating effective C2 at the tactical level. TASS reports Russian fighters improved tactical position near Petrovsky, taking about 3.5 km of the LNR administrative border under fire control, demonstrating continued C2 effectiveness in localized ground operations. Colonelcassad posts videos showing FPV drone as RPG carrier, indicating C2 effectiveness in adapting new capabilities. Colonelcassad posts videos showing FPV drone operators from 5th Separate Guards Tank Brigade ("Vostok" group) hitting enemy logistics, demonstrating C2 effectiveness in coordinating drone strikes for logistical disruption. Rybar's video analysis with map overlays confirms RF C2 in directing advances towards Belaya Gora, Shcherbinovka, Yablonevka, and the western bank of the Seversky Donets-Donbas canal. TASS posts video showing claimed "liberation" of Novoekonomichne. TASS reports RF forces created a "fire bag" for UAF in Yuzhny quarter of Chasiv Yar. STERNENKO reports enemy activated offensive operations in Zaporizhzhia direction, near Stepnohirsk, with tactical advances. MoD Russia posts video of 20th Guards Combined Arms Army servicemen training assault tactics in LPR. Шеф Hayabusa reports RF has occupied Novoekonomichne near Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Rybar posts a video about "combat control know-how" showing Russian military officers discussing networked systems for coordinating devices and software, indicating improved command and control in ground operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operation Z posts video of fierce fighting near Pokrovsk, showing drone footage of targets including an M113 APC, truck, and artillery piece, with explosions, indicating effective C2 in combat operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Z комитет + карта СВО posts drone footage of destroyed urban area and claims from 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (5OMSBBr). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports advisor to DPR head, Igor Kimakovsky, claims RF forces expelled UAF from positions in Zelenyy Hay, DNR, indicating effective C2 for tactical gains. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Воин DV posts video claiming liberation of Volnoye Pole by Vostok group and 5th Army storm units, and shows SAU "Dana" firing. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Narodnaya militsiya DNR posts video of a drone ambush on a UAF pickup truck near Novoekonomichne, indicating effective C2 for FPV drone use in tactical operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kotsnews posts video of "Fights for Zverevo. How the village was liberated," confirming effective C2 for territorial gains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Starshy Edda posts video of "Fights for Zverevo. How the village was liberated," further confirming C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• ISR/ELINT Coordination: Surge in ISR and ELINT activity. The global Starlink outage represents a significant disruption to Ukrainian C2. New reconnaissance UAVs detected north of Zaporizhzhia city, southern Sumy, northern Chernihiv, and northern Kharkiv. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs north of Zaporizhzhia and in central Sumy Oblast. The movement of new groups of enemy strike UAVs from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk indicates continued RF C2 effectiveness in coordinating multi-regional drone operations. Five "mopeds" (drones) reported flying towards Dnipro from the Synelnykivskyi direction, signaling immediate and coordinated deep strike activity. Enemy reconnaissance UAV detected in Black Sea waters near Zatoka, indicating continued and coordinated ISR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Domestic Security C2: Repulsion of drone attacks on Krasnodar Krai. Response to internal issues. SBU's operation in Mykolaiv and Kyiv highlights RF's continued use of covert networks and Ukraine's effective counter-intelligence. FSB's arrests of domestic dissidents. The alleged capture of a "spotter" in Kherson. TASS reports on Belousov's meeting on digital and technological development in MoD. The arrest of Bryansk Vice-Governor. New TASS video of Belousov's meeting. TASS reports Simonenko does not admit guilt. "ZONA SVO" video features an RF soldier criticizing bloggers. ASTRA's report on increased checks on ship hulls in Ust-Luga port. TASS reports the Moscow court arrested the Baza editor-in-chief and the Minister of Property for Chelyabinsk Oblast. TASS reports the Moscow court arrested the acting Head of Affairs of the Governor and Government of Chelyabinsk Oblast, Menzhinsky. TASS confirms "Andrey Sakharov Institute" declared "undesirable". TASS reports Chief Editor of Baza, Gleb Trifonov, refused to testify. Два майора reports on the Investigative Committee's case against MoD employees. TASS reports on Mikhail Gusman's release from TASS. TASS reports two more police officers arrested. New photos from Arkhangel Spetsnaza claim "Another minor organized crime group caught." Colonelcassad posts photos implying Ukrainian internal dissent. TASS reports Starlink users complaining about malfunctions. TASS reports Putin emphasized the need to severely suppress any external attempts. TASS reports an apartment and car of an accomplice in the "Crocus" terrorist attack have been seized. TASS reports that the perpetrators of the Crocus terrorist attack have been recognized as sane. TASS reports that the organizers of the "Crocus" terrorist attack acted in the interests of Ukraine, demonstrating the RF's C2 in attributing events to Ukraine. TASS reports Bastrykin congratulated investigation authorities on their professional holiday. ASTRA reports "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) implemented in North Ossetia and other SKFO regions. Temporary flight restrictions in 8 RF airports. TASS reports Amur Oblast Governor Vasily Orlov is in Tynda to assess An-24 crash, indicating rapid governmental response to a domestic crisis. TASS reports new suspects may emerge in the case of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, indicating ongoing C2 in domestic anti-corruption efforts. Nevinnomyssk Mayor's statement on 37 impacts with no damage is a clear C2 attempt to control the information narrative after a significant strike. RBK-Ukraina reports 45 flights delayed in Sochi airport, highlighting C2 in air traffic management due to perceived threats. TASS reports all flight restrictions at 8 airports in southern Russia and Tambov have been lifted, indicating rapid and effective C2 in managing airspace after drone threats. Два майора provides a morning summary, acting as a key C2 node for RF milbloggers and their audience. Рыбарь posts a chronicle of the Special Military Operation, another key C2 node for milbloggers. Igor Artamonov reports "yellow level" drone threat lifted, indicating effective C2 in threat management. TASS reports Moscow court arrested businessman Moshkovich's bank accounts. ASTRA reports "18+" goods will be sold on marketplaces via biometrics, indicating new internal C2 for population control. TASS reports a Boeing S7 flight to Sochi is returning to Novosibirsk airport, indicating real-time C2 in air traffic management. TASS reports Crocus terrorists used drugs to dull fear. TASS reports a man detained in Cherepovets who sold data on 27,000+ Russian citizens to Ukrainian call centers. FSB reports detention of co-conspirators of Ukrainian call centers in 4 regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS posts video messages claiming FSB and МВД detained co-conspirators of Ukrainian call centers in 4 RF regions, with video showing raids and confiscated items (firearms, cash, phones, credit cards), which directly demonstrates effective C2 in internal security operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Two Majors posts the same video message regarding FSB/MVD detentions of call center co-conspirators, aiming to amplify the message. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports the defense of Baza editor-in-chief Trifonov has appealed his arrest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). GUR cyber specialists conducted a "digital strike" against the occupation administration of Crimea, destroying all data on "government" servers, indicating a successful counter-C2 strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS DG Kondrashov discusses disinformation and AI, suggesting strategic C2 in information warfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports 20 people arrested in Russia on a remote fraud case, with FSB claiming they were supervised by Ukrainian call centers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Sever.Realii reports 20 people arrested in Russia for remote fraud, FSB claims they were overseen by Ukrainian call centers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports the Federation Council approved a law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPN services, and for transferring subscriber numbers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a blast occurred in Saratov, demonstrating a C2 response to an internal incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Strategic C2: TASS reports RF delegation returning from Istanbul talks. Putin attending Supreme Court Chairman's farewell. TASS reports Zakharova's statements regarding Russia's participation in the Helsinki Final Act conference. The arrest of Bryansk Vice-Governor. New TASS video of Belousov's meeting. TASS reports Simonenko does not admit guilt. "ZONA SVO" video features an RF soldier criticizing bloggers. The Lithuanian General's statement about NATO infrastructure readiness. Putin's statement about fully implementing plans for modern naval forces. Putin's visit to Severodvinsk. Старше Эдды's discussion of the МВД-Медиа video. TASS video of Putin at the nuclear submarine ceremony. «Зона СВО» posts a video of an Luhansk People's Republic Ministry of Defense serviceman apologizing. TASS reports GAZ moving to a four-day work week. Novosti Moskvy reporting on metro disruptions. The previous daily report notes a confirmed concentration of 98th VDV Division elements east of Chasiv Yar. Operation Z posts a video featuring a Latvian MEP. MoD Russia video of Putin discussing submarine development. «Зона СВО» posts a photo discussing blaming "Akhmat". RBK-Ukraina reports IAEA team was not allowed access to ZNPP training center. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy changed the composition of the Stavka of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. TASS reports Russian Railways (RZD) has redirected cargo traffic. TASS reports the UN Security Council will hold a meeting on July 25 regarding the escalation between Cambodia and Thailand. TASS reports that Trump signed a law to cut $9 billion in foreign aid, which RF will interpret as a strategic gain, demonstrating Putin's successful manipulation of US internal politics. WSJ reports Iran decided to resume cooperation with IAEA on its nuclear program, demonstrating RF's ability to influence international nuclear non-proliferation efforts through its allies. Operation Z reports FSB has a new series "Spetsy" portraying heroic work of FSB special forces. TASS reports Armenian Union President's condemnation of Pashinyan, indicating RF's strategic C2 in exploiting regional political dynamics. TASS reports Mishustin stated RF is forming a closed-loop economy. TASS posts photo message showing Indian PM Modi's achievement. TASS reports Khusnullin believes key rate could be lowered to 10-12% by year-end. RBK-Ukraina provides a summary of night news, indicating strategic messaging C2. TASS reports Soyuz-2.1b launch with two heliogeophysical satellites, indicating strategic space capabilities. RBK-Ukraina reports Germany wants to create the strongest army in Europe, with 40,000 new fighters annually, framing a perceived threat from NATO. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy discussed a possible meeting with Putin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS DG Kondrashov discusses threats of disinformation and AI, indicating strategic C2 in shaping narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Air Defense (AD) Posture: Remains highly vigilant and engaged. Successful interception of 7 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk and 90 of 103 drones and 1 cruise missile overnight. Latest reports: 54/61 enemy UAVs and 0/2 Iskander-M/KN-23 suppressed overnight. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports weekly destruction of over 50 Russian reconnaissance drones. The Israeli early warning system for air threats became operational in Kyiv last night. An enemy drone fell in Poltava Oblast due to AD work. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that German HENSOLDT will produce TRML-4D and SPEXER 2000 radars for Ukraine for €340 million. New US aid package includes AD systems. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports successful interception of drones near Kremenchuk. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs north of Zaporizhzhia and in central Sumy Oblast are being engaged. The global Starlink outage was software-related and largely resolved, limiting its long-term impact on UAF communication. Nikolaevsky Vanek confirms all "mopeds" (drones) near Kremenchuk/Svitlovodsk are neutralized. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) over Sumy city. UAF General Staff provides updated approximate enemy losses, including 2 AD systems. UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV over Zatoka, being engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Air Defense forces shot down 54 out of 63 enemy UAVs overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy named the price of interceptor drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports the first Patriot battery and missiles from Germany have arrived in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the arrival of a Patriot system and missiles from Germany. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Patriot system and additional missiles have arrived in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports UAV in the Sumy suburbs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports KAAB incoming on Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ground Forces Posture (Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk): Facing increasingly coordinated mechanized assaults. High volume of requests for drones from Pokrovsk. UAF General Staff reports 172 combat engagements. UAF drone units remain effective. Marine brigades maintain lines and repel attacks. The 43rd OMBR and 32nd Steel Brigade are actively seeking drone donations. Butusov Plus releases graphic video of a Russian soldier's apparent suicide by grenade. Facing significant, claimed RF advances in Chasiv Yar by 98th VDV. Butusov Plus posts videos from SBU's "A" Special Operations Center, claiming over 2100 Russian soldiers eliminated. DeepState and Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukraїni post videos of drone strikes by 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade. The "previous daily report" notes a significant reduction in offensive actions on the Avdiivka axis. ОТУ "Харків" posts new drone footage showing "Molniya" strike UAVs destroying Russian observation posts. TASS reports RF "siloviki" claim UAF intends to increase grouping near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Operatyvny ZSU posts a video showing a UAF soldier surrounded by drones asking for donations for FPV transceivers. STERNENKO posts a video demonstrating a drone operation. Colonelcassad posts several photos captioned "SVO landscapes. South-Donetsk direction." New photo messages from ОТУ "Харків" depict military vehicles in a night setting. TASS reports Zelenskyy named the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) section of the front as the most difficult. Alex Parker Returns claims RF forces have secured positions in Pokrovsk. The global Starlink outage will significantly impact UAF ground forces' communication. Colonelcassad posts satellite imagery claiming to show UAF engineering structures and defense lines under construction in Kramatorsk district. UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapon use in Sumy, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. Colonelcassad's video of a destroyed Ukrainian KrAZ-260 military truck (potentially ammunition carrier) highlights a vulnerability in UAF ground logistics and transport, impacting resupply and operational readiness. TASS reports that the liberation of Novoekonomichne by RF allows them to put pressure on AFU near Krasnyi Lyman and "seriously complicate" enemy logistics. UAF General Staff provides updated approximate enemy losses (980 personnel). UAF General Staff map for 24.07.2025 indicates continued contested areas and enemy advances in the Orikhiv and Lyman directions. STERNENKO requests donations for Pokrovsk and Sumy directions, indicating these remain high-intensity zones. UAF General Staff provides an updated summary as of 08:00 25.07.2025 (photo message). STERNENKO posts a message implying continued need for drone donations to support frontline operations. Шеф Hayabusa posts a photo message of the frontline on Pokrovsk direction, noting RF occupation of Novoekonomichne. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF General Staff posts photo messages promoting teamwork and cohesion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy stated Russia is "getting smacked" near Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Butusov Plus posts video of Russian soldiers in a trench. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Civilian Response: Civilian populations respond to alerts. Emergency services actively engaged. General Prosecutor's Office initiated investigations. Patrol police in Cherkasy actively evacuating citizens. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration video shows ongoing civilian housing repair efforts. RBK-Ukraina reports forced evacuation expanding in Donetsk Oblast. Oleksandr Vilkul's posts on reconstruction and road repairs. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports forced evacuation of families with children from Dobropillia. Serhiy Lysak reports damage to residential buildings, a medical facility, and a lyceum in Nikopol. Oleksandr Vilkul reports reduced road repairs due to funds redirected to support Defense Forces. RBK-Ukraina posts photos from Odesa showing extensive debris. ASTRA provides multiple photos of destruction and rescue efforts in Odesa. RBK-Ukraina reports a third day of protests in Kyiv under the Franko Theater against the law on NABU. RBK-Ukraina reports a frontline community in Sumy Oblast was attacked, with one fatality near Znob-Novhorodske. RBK-Ukraina reports IAEA team was not allowed access to ZNPP training center. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos showing ongoing protests in Kyiv regarding the NABU/SAP reform bill, indicating continued public engagement and a critical stance towards the government's actions. Oleksandr Vilkul reports Kryvyi Rih situation controlled. Operatyvny ZSU reports on the consequences of enemy strikes on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming ongoing civilian impact. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a 64-year-old woman severely wounded in Stepnohirsk due to enemy attack, confirming ongoing civilian impact. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports air raid alert cleared. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a 63-year-old man killed in Polohivskyi Raion. RBK-Ukraina reports combined RF attack on Dniprovskyi district of Kherson with aftermath video showing damaged vehicles/buildings and bloodstains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports RF dropped explosives from a drone on an ambulance crew in Dniprovskyi district of Kherson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a Ukrainian UAV dropped a munition on a parking lot near the Zaporizhzhia NPP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Oleksandr Vilkul shares photos of children of servicemen attending a summer camp, indicating efforts to support civilian morale amidst conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Training & Readiness: DSHV training center activity. Return of paratroopers from captivity. Adapted civilian vehicles for military missions. Oleg Syniehubov's photos of returned POWs. DSHV releases a new motivational video. РБК-Україна reports on military registration for 17-year-olds. UAF General Staff publishes photos showing a young female athlete. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy changed the composition of the Stavka of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video confirming the localization of German Vector drones production in Ukraine. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration promotes handball for veterans. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Coordination Staff for POWs posts a video of a returning POW. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Oleksandr Vilkul shares photos of children of servicemen attending a summer camp, indicating efforts to support military families. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Resource Management: Units actively fundraising. Scaling up domestic explosives production. General Staff announcing partnership with "Ballistics" for "Army+" program. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast receiving three new ambulances from philanthropists. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 confirms receiving two donations. KMVA reports a meeting with International Monetary Fund representatives. STERNENKO highlights a "significant deficit" in "Rusoriz" (drone) production/availability. Oleksandr Vilkul's report on redirecting road repair funds to defense. The General Prosecutor's Office reporting on over 200 million UAH of losses. Operatyvny ZSU posts a video featuring a UAF soldier surrounded by drones asking for donations for FPV transceivers. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a €340 million contract for HENSOLDT radars. RBK-Ukraina and Operatyvny ZSU report Nazariy Husakov suspected in fraud case involving charitable collections. New US aid package for $330M approved. STERNENKO posts a message implying continued need for drone donations. Office of the Prosecutor General reports over 100M UAH transferred to ARMA from corruption case. Operatyvny ZSU posts a video with a call to action "Occupiers must be killed and you can help with that!" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports Zelenskyy wants to appeal to European allies for funding to increase Ukrainian military salaries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa posts a video discussing NABU salary and public dissatisfaction with its effectiveness, which raises questions about efficient resource allocation for anti-corruption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy named the price of interceptor drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Counter-Intelligence Posture: SBU's successful operation in Mykolaiv and Kyiv. General Prosecutor's office is addressing corruption cases. The General Prosecutor's Office reports the detention of a deserting serviceman. The General Prosecutor's Office is also investigating a scheme involving demands for bribes for military medical commissions. Zelenskiy / Official, STERNENKO, RBK-Ukraina, and Operatyvny ZSU all report President Zelenskyy's approval of a draft law strengthening law enforcement, anti-corruption bodies, and protecting them from Russian influence. The General Prosecutor's Office reports on stopping the work of a transnational hacker forum. Oleg Syniehubov posts a video discussing the operational situation in Kharkiv Oblast. General Prosecutor's Office publicizes the detention of an RF agent. Шеф Hayabusa posts a photo discussing why protests are forbidden during wartime. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy proposed Germany participate in the expertise of the NABU draft law. Operatyvny ZSU reports NABU employees with state secret access will undergo SBU polygraph tests. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy submitted a draft law to the Rada on NABU and SAP independence. NABU's support for the new draft law reinforces its positive image. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms Zelenskyy's submission. STERNENKO clarifies previous legal status. RBK-Ukraina notes NABU reaction. RBK-Ukraina reports NABU responded to "new risks." Oleg Syniehubov posts photos confirming NABU and SAP supported draft law №13533. General Prosecutor's Office reports exposing a scheme to seize funds under the guise of SMA treatment collection. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video of President Zelenskyy stating that everyone with access to state secrets, including in NABU, SAP, DBR, and National Police, must undergo lie detector tests, indicating continued focus on counter-intelligence and anti-corruption within government structures. Office of the Prosecutor General reports over 100M UAH transferred to ARMA from corruption case. Office of the Prosecutor General reports an ex-MP, lawyers, and a jurist illegally appropriated over 21M UAH under the guise of real estate sales. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy held a meeting with journalists. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports the SBU detained another FSB agent who helped RF shell Kharkiv, with photos showing the detention. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina posts an image captioned: "Zelenskyy replied why he did not conduct a dialogue on the law on NABU and SAP." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina posts an image captioned: "Eurointegration will not be derailed: Zelenskyy promises a decision on NABU and SAP." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa posts a video with text overlays discussing NABU and SAP, protests, and financial figures, appearing critical of funding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina posts an image captioned: "What happens if the Rada fails the new NABU bill: Zelenskyy's answer." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy responded to RF demands to return "Russian children" and "Kursk Oblast residents." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports Zelenskyy proposed new NABU/SAP bill due to protests. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). SBU detained a Russian spotter in Kharkiv, who reportedly expressed satisfaction with GAB attacks on the city, claiming many people were "torn apart." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports MP Gerashchenko stated Zelenskyy's new NABU bill was submitted to Rada with procedural violations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:
  • AD Engagements: Seven UAVs intercepted over Dnipropetrovsk. 90 of 103 RF UAVs downed overnight, plus one cruise missile. Latest reports: 54/61 enemy UAVs and 0/2 Iskander-M/KN-23 suppressed overnight. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports weekly destruction of over 50 Russian reconnaissance drones. The Israeli early warning system for air threats became operational in Kyiv last night. An enemy drone fell in Poltava Oblast due to AD work. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that German HENSOLDT will produce TRML-4D and SPEXER 2000 radars for Ukraine for €340 million. New US aid package includes AD systems. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports successful interception of drones near Kremenchuk. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs north of Zaporizhzhia and in central Sumy Oblast are being engaged. The global Starlink outage was software-related and largely resolved, limiting its long-term impact on UAF communication. Nikolaevsky Vanek confirms all "mopeds" (drones) near Kremenchuk/Svitlovodsk are neutralized. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) over Sumy city is being engaged. UAF General Staff provides updated approximate enemy losses, including 2 AD systems. UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV over Zatoka, being engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Air Defense forces shot down 54 out of 63 enemy UAVs overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports the first Patriot battery and missiles from Germany have arrived in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the arrival of a Patriot system and missiles from Germany. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Patriot system and additional missiles have arrived in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Prisoner Exchange: Return of Ukrainian military personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Coordination Staff for POWs posts a video of a returning POW. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Situational Control: Kryvyi Rih remains controlled. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Repulsion of Mechanized Assaults: UAF on Pokrovsk axis successfully repelled at least two company-sized mechanized assaults. UAF General Staff reports numerous repelled assaults. STERNENKO reports Sky Hunters of the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade stopping new Russian assaults on Kupyansk direction. STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF (SSO A) engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. Butusov Plus posts videos from SBU's "A" Special Operations Center, claiming over 2100 Russian soldiers eliminated. DeepState and Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukraїni post videos of drone strikes by 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade. The "previous daily report" notes a significant reduction in offensive actions on the Avdiivka axis. ОТУ "Харків" posts new drone footage showing "Molniya" strike UAVs destroying Russian observation posts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy stated Russia is "getting smacked" near Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Effective Counter-Offensive Operations (Sochi): Continued Ukrainian long-range UAV attacks on critical RF infrastructure. ASTRA reports Krasnodar Krai Operative Headquarters reports drone attack, implicitly confirming continued success of Ukrainian drone operations. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train car, injuring two, a confirmed impact of Ukrainian drone activity. ASTRA and RBK-Ukraina videos show explosions and fire at Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant, confirming successful deep strike operations against Russian industrial targets. RBK-Ukraina reports 45 flights delayed in Sochi airport, confirming disruptions caused by Ukrainian drone activity. Operatyvny ZSU posts videos and photos highlighting drone attacks on Rostov and Tambov Oblasts, specifically targeting the Tambov Powder Plant, indicating continued deep strike success against RF military-industrial targets. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video titled "Good drones didn't let Russia sleep: a series of explosions occurred in Stavropol Krai, Tambov, and Rostov Oblasts." ASTRA reports Timashevsk railway station in Krasnodar Krai without power after UAV attack, 2 train passengers injured. Operatyvny ZSU reports railway station building in Peschanokopskoye, Rostov Oblast, damaged by UAV strike. STERNENKO posts video of drone attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant, mayor claims "over 20 hits". Operational ZSU reports explosions in occupied Donetsk. CyberBoroshno claims successful strike on RF HQ in Donetsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF struck the Zasyadko mine in Kyivskyi district of Donetsk, causing a fire in an administrative building. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports a direct hit on the Zasyadko mine in Kyivskyi district of Donetsk, with photos showing significant fire in an administrative building and smoke plumes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports UAVs attacked the Tambov Powder Plant. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Drone Strikes against RF targets: RBK-Ukraine reports successful drone strikes destroying Msta-B howitzer and communication equipment. STERNENKO reports successful drone strikes against RF personnel. OTU "Kharkiv" reports success against enemy vehicles. Butusov Plus provides graphic video of a Russian soldier's apparent suicide by grenade. Butusov Plus posts video of a Ukrainian drone successfully detonating an unexploded Russian bomb. STERNENKO posts a video demonstrating a drone operation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a Ukrainian tactical aviation strike on an FSB base in Bryansk Oblast, Russia. Operatyvny ZSU posts a drone video showing explosions on a fortified position. TASS reports UAF struck Zasyadko mine in Donetsk with rockets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports a direct hit on the Zasyadko mine in Kyivskyi district of Donetsk, with photos showing significant fire in an administrative building and smoke plumes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Narodnaya militsiya DNR posts video of a drone ambush on a UAF pickup truck near Novoekonomichne. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a Ukrainian UAV dropped a munition on a parking lot near the Zaporizhzhia NPP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Mash na Donbasse posts photos confirming a Ukrainian UAV dropped a munition near Zaporizhzhia NPP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • SBU Counter-Terrorism Operation: Successful prevention of dual terrorist act in Mykolaiv and a significant terror act in central Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports the SBU detained another FSB agent who helped RF shell Kharkiv, with photos showing the detention. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). SBU detained a Russian spotter in Kharkiv, who reportedly expressed satisfaction with GAB attacks on the city. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Domestic Explosives Production: Scaling up production. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Defense Industry Partnership: New partnership with "Ballistics" for "Army+" program. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Fiscal Integrity: General Prosecutor's Office reports restitution of 29 million UAH. New report on over 200 million UAH of losses. General Prosecutor's Office reports exposing a scheme to seize funds under the guise of SMA treatment collection. RBK-Ukraina and Operatyvny ZSU report Nazariy Husakov suspected in fraud case. STERNENKO confirms Husakov's suspicion by the Prosecutor General. Office of the Prosecutor General reports over 100M UAH transferred to ARMA from corruption case. Office of the Prosecutor General reports an ex-MP, lawyers, and a jurist illegally appropriated over 21M UAH. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Addressing Disinformation: Ukrainian public and RBK-Ukraina countered Congresswoman Greene's fake news. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Strengthening Law Enforcement/Anti-Corruption: President Zelenskyy's approval of a draft law in this area. EU Commission "welcomed" the new bill. STERNENKO, RBK-Ukraina, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirm Zelenskyy's submission of the new NABU/SAP draft law. RBK-Ukraina reports on new law on NABU/SAP: Zelenskyy disclosed criteria for polygraph tests. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina posts an image captioned: "Zelenskyy replied why he did not conduct a dialogue on the law on NABU and SAP." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina posts an image captioned: "Eurointegration will not be derailed: Zelenskyy promises a decision on NABU and SAP." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina posts an image captioned: "What happens if the Rada fails the new NABU bill: Zelenskyy's answer." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports Zelenskyy proposed new NABU/SAP bill due to protests. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports MP Gerashchenko stated Zelenskyy's new NABU bill was submitted to Rada with procedural violations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Cyber Security: Ukrainian law enforcement, with French colleagues and Europol, stopped a transnational hacker forum. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). GUR cyber specialists conducted a "digital strike" against the occupation administration of Crimea, destroying all data on "government" servers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Civilian Infrastructure Repair: Oleksandr Vilkul's posts on road construction. His report on redirecting road repair funds to defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Oleksandr Vilkul posts photos of continued efforts to create family-type homes for displaced persons, indicating social support initiatives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • International Financial Engagement: Kyiv City Military Administration meeting with IMF representatives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Diplomatic Engagement: Zelenskiy / Official reports a good conversation with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy discussed a possible meeting with Putin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Sports Achievement for Morale: UAF General Staff highlighting a young female athlete's achievements. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration promotes handball for veterans. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • International Condemnation of RF: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Netherlands and 40 OSCE countries initiating investigation into alleged torture of Ukrainian POWs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Military Leadership Adjustments: RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy changed the composition of the Stavka of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • New US Aid Package: US approval of $330M military aid package. Approval of $150M for M109 howitzer maintenance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Two Majors posts an image captioned: "USA allowed Ukraine to repair previously purchased equipment for money." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Patriot System Delivery: Operatyvny ZSU reports the first Patriot battery promised by Trump, along with missiles, has arrived in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the arrival of a Patriot system and missiles from Germany. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Patriot system and additional missiles have arrived in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setbacks:
  • Civilian Casualties and Infrastructure Damage: Significant civilian casualties (12 in Cherkasy, 1 fatality + 3+ injured in Odesa, unspecified in Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, 41 in Kharkiv including 6 children, 2 killed and 14 injured in Konstantinovka, 1 killed in Sumy, 63-year-old male killed in Polohivskyi Raion, 64-year-old female severely wounded in Stepnohirsk). Drone attack on Norwegian humanitarian base in Mykolaiv. Serhiy Lysak reports damage to residential buildings, a medical facility, and a lyceum in Nikopol. ASTRA reports Timashevsk railway station in Krasnodar Krai without power after UAV attack, 2 train passengers injured. Operatyvny ZSU reports railway station building in Peschanokopskoye, Rostov Oblast, damaged by UAV strike. STERNENKO posts video of drone attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant, mayor claims "over 20 hits," indicating continued damage to targets. Operatyvny ZSU reports on the consequences of enemy strikes on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming continued civilian impact and likely concern. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a 64-year-old woman severely wounded in Stepnohirsk due to enemy attack. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a 63-year-old man killed in Polohivskyi Raion. RBK-Ukraina reports combined RF attack on Dniprovskyi district of Kherson with aftermath video showing damaged vehicles/buildings and bloodstains. Sever.Realii reports one killed in RF shelling of Sumy Oblast. TASS reports UAF struck Zasyadko mine in Donetsk with rockets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Oleg Syniehubov reports 5 casualties remain in hospitals from yesterday's Kharkiv attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports RF dropped explosives from a drone on an ambulance crew in Dniprovskyi district of Kherson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a Ukrainian UAV dropped a munition on a parking lot near the Zaporizhzhia NPP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports KAAB incoming on Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a blast occurred in Saratov with potential fatalities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA confirms Saratov explosion and casualty. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts video of the Saratov explosion aftermath. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • FAB-3000/UMPB-5 Impact: Deployment and impact of FAB-3000 M-54 and UMPB-5 near Lyptsi and Kharkiv center. Confirmed GAB use on Donetsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Kherson. Continued GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of GABs onto Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports KAAB incoming on Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Persistent UAV Threat: Confirmed mass drone attack on Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and Sumy. New UAVs reported in Sumy, northern Kharkiv, and southwest of Dnipro, and northeastern Poltava. New high-speed target reported in Sumy Oblast (Khotin) and UAV near Shostka (Sumy Oblast). New Shahed drones detected moving towards Sumy city. Explosions reported in Kremenchuk area. Threat of enemy strike UAVs detected in Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected north of Zaporizhzhia, southern Sumy, northern Chernihiv, and northern Kharkiv Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs north of Zaporizhzhia and in central Sumy Oblast. New groups of enemy strike UAVs moving from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk, and specifically 2 "mopeds" (drones) heading for Pavlohrad, indicate continued and potentially intensified UAV threats to central Ukraine. Five "mopeds" (drones) reported flying towards Dnipro from the Synelnykivskyi direction. UAF Air Force reports repeated GAB launches onto Donetsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) over Sumy city. UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southeastern direction. MOD Russia claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight. ASTRA confirms MOD Russia's claim of 105 UAVs shot down. AV БогомаZ reports 25 enemy UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast overnight. UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV over Zatoka, indicating a persistent threat. Operatsiya Z claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over 10 regions overnight, indicating continued high volume of attacks despite AD success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports UAV in the Sumy suburbs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Frontline Pressure (Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk): RF's shift to larger mechanized assaults. Colonelcassad's claims of RF liberation of Shevchenko and Pivdenny micro-districts and envelopment of Zemlianky micro-districts in Chasiv Yar, and Yablonovka. Colonelcassad's claim of Novoekonomichne liberation. The "previous daily report" highlights an imminent, major ground assault on Chasiv Yar. Butusov Plus video showing Mirnohrad in ruins. Operation Z claims Russian army broke into Kupyansk. Vooin DV claims 51st Guards Combined Arms Army liberated Novoekonomichne. TASS reports Zelenskyy named the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) section of the front as the most difficult. Alex Parker Returns claims RF forces have secured positions in Pokrovsk. RF milblogger "Operatsiya Z" posts drone footage implying continued offensive operations on the Zaporizhzhia front. Colonelcassad posts video claiming a ZALA Lancet destroyed a 105-mm L119 Howitzer in Kharkiv Oblast. TASS reports that the liberation of Novoekonomichne by RF allows them to put pressure on AFU near Krasnyi Lyman and "seriously complicate" enemy logistics. UAF General Staff provides updated approximate enemy losses (980 personnel), indicating continued heavy fighting. UAF General Staff map for 24.07.2025 indicates continued contested areas and enemy advances in the Orikhiv and Lyman directions. TASS posts video showing claimed "liberation" of Novoekonomichne. TASS reports RF forces created a "fire bag" for UAF in Yuzhny quarter of Chasiv Yar. Operational ZSU reports explosions in occupied Donetsk, implying localized RF successes or disruption. STERNENKO reports enemy activated offensive operations in Zaporizhzhia direction, near Stepnohirsk, with tactical advances. Шеф Hayabusa reports RF has occupied Novoekonomichne near Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Slivochniy Kapriz posts a video of aerial footage showing a village with damaged buildings and a soldier planting a Russian flag, captioned "25.07.25 Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoye." (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Operation Z posts video of fierce fighting near Pokrovsk, showing drone footage of targets including an M113 APC, truck, and artillery piece, with explosions, indicating continued offensive pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Z комитет + карта СВО posts drone footage of destroyed urban area and claims from 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (5OMSBBr). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports advisor to DPR head, Igor Kimakovsky, claims RF forces expelled UAF from positions in Zelenyy Hay, DNR. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Воин DV posts video claiming liberation of Volnoye Pole by Vostok group and 5th Army storm units. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Kotsnews posts video of "Fights for Zverevo. How the village was liberated," confirming RF advances and indicating tactical setbacks for UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Starshy Edda posts video of "Fights for Zverevo. How the village was liberated," further confirming RF advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Claimed RF River Crossing (Kharkiv): The RF claim of crossing the Verkhnya Dvurechnaya river at Melovoe, if confirmed, represents a minor tactical setback. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Vulnerability of Civilian Shipping: Explosion on a Ukrainian dredge ship "Delta-Lotsman" in Bystre estuary. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Economic Impact of Heat: Cargo transport restrictions in Kyiv due to heat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Nationwide Air Alarm: MiG-31K launch triggered a nationwide air alarm. New ballistic missile threat from northeast. The "previous daily report" confirms the use of P-800 Onyx missiles against ground targets in Odesa. New high-speed missile detected in Chernihiv Oblast. New high-speed target detected on the northeastern part of Poltava region towards Kremenchuk. UAF Air Force reports ballistic missile threat from Donetsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF Claimed Territorial Gains: TASS reports "Center" group liberated Novoekonomichne and Zverevo. Z комитет + карта СВО posts claimed advances in #ZelenyyHay. TASS reports Russian fighters improved tactical position near Petrovsky, taking about 3.5 km of the LNR administrative border under fire control. Rybar's video analysis confirms RF advances towards Belaya Gora, Shcherbinovka, Yablonevka, and the western bank of the Seversky Donets-Donbas canal. TASS posts video showing claimed "liberation" of Novoekonomichne. STERNENKO reports enemy activated offensive operations in Zaporizhzhia direction, near Stepnohirsk, with tactical advances. Шеф Hayabusa reports RF has occupied Novoekonomichne near Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for TASS, HIGH for Z committee, HIGH for Rybar). Slivochniy Kapriz posts a video of aerial footage showing a village with damaged buildings and a soldier planting a Russian flag, captioned "25.07.25 Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoye," which is intended to show RF territorial gains. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). TASS reports advisor to DPR head, Igor Kimakovsky, claims RF forces expelled UAF from positions in Zelenyy Hay, DNR. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Воин DV posts video claiming liberation of Volnoye Pole by Vostok group and 5th Army storm units. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Kotsnews posts video of "Fights for Zverevo. How the village was liberated," confirming RF territorial gains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Starshy Edda posts video of "Fights for Zverevo. How the village was liberated," further confirming RF territorial gains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Internal Diplomatic Friction: RBK-Ukraina reports Macron and Costa dissuaded Zelenskyy from signing the law on NABU and SAP. STERNENKO highlights a "significant deficit" in "Rusoriz" (drone) production/availability. RBK-Ukraina reports NABU responded to "new risks" in Zelenskyy's new draft law. RBK-Ukraina reports a third day of protests in Kyiv. TASS reports widespread protests in 10 Ukrainian cities. Colonelcassad posts photos implying Ukrainian internal dissent. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos showing ongoing protests in Kyiv regarding the NABU/SAP reform bill, indicating continued internal political challenges for Ukraine. Vooin DV reports Zelenskyy submitted a bill canceling changes to anti-corruption organs' independent status. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina posts an image captioned: "Zelenskyy replied why he did not conduct a dialogue on the law on NABU and SAP." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina posts an image captioned: "Eurointegration will not be derailed: Zelenskyy promises a decision on NABU and SAP." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina posts an image captioned: "What happens if the Rada fails the new NABU bill: Zelenskyy's answer." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa posts a video with text overlays discussing NABU and SAP, protests, and financial figures, appearing critical of funding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports Zelenskyy proposed new NABU/SAP bill due to protests. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports MP Gerashchenko stated Zelenskyy's new NABU bill was submitted to Rada with procedural violations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • New Form of RF Coercion/Mobilization: RBK-Ukraina reports that Russia is sending kidnapped Ukrainian children to the front. ASTRA reports Russia is forming a battalion of captured Ukrainian soldiers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russia is forming a battalion from captured Ukrainian military personnel, citing State Duma deputy Vodolatsky. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports Russia is forming a battalion from captured Ukrainian military personnel, citing State Duma deputy Vodolatsky. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Alleged Chemical Weapon Use: The GUR message regarding RF use of chemical weapons. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for GUR claim, LOW for independent verification).
  • Vulnerability to Internal Fraud: General Prosecutor's Office reports exposing a scheme to seize funds under the guise of SMA treatment collection. RBK-Ukraina and Operatyvny ZSU report Nazariy Husakov suspected in fraud case. Office of the Prosecutor General reports an ex-MP, lawyers, and a jurist illegally appropriated over 21M UAH. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • IAEA Access to ZNPP Training Center Denied: RBK-Ukraina reports that the IAEA team was not allowed access. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Starlink Communication Disruption: Widespread reports confirm a global Starlink outage affecting communication. While largely resolved, the temporary disruption created a window of vulnerability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Political/Security Loss: The death of People's Deputy Yaroslav Rushchyshyn in a car accident represents a loss for Ukrainian political leadership. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Logistics/Transport Losses: Colonelcassad's video showing a destroyed Ukrainian KrAZ-260 military truck (potentially ammunition carrier) indicates a tactical setback for UAF logistics, potentially causing ammunition shortages or delays in resupply. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Communication Restoration Delay: Nikolaevsky Vanek reports "minus" for drones, but the underlying Starlink outage, though software-related, implies a temporary disruption that still needed to be overcome. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Water Supply Degradation: Mash na Donbasse posts images showing the drying up of the Starokrymske Reservoir, which supplies Mariupol with water. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Captured Personnel: Colonelcassad posts video of a captured Ukrainian serviceman near Yunakivka, which is a tactical setback for UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Missile Component Sourcing: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russia plans to use Austrian-made components for missiles, indicating continued reliance on foreign components despite sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Critical Needs (Air Defense): Continued and expedited supply of air defense systems and interceptor missiles. Germany potentially transferring two Patriot systems is positive. US approval for repair equipment for Bradley and HAWK systems. The confirmation of P-800 Onyx missile use against ground targets in Odesa highlights an urgent need for AD systems. New €340 million contract for HENSOLDT radars. New US aid package of $330M including AD systems. Immediate need for AD response to new ballistic missile threat from northeast and high-speed target on northeastern Poltava region. Immediate need for AD response to new drone threats in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, particularly Pavlohrad and Samara districts. Immediate need to counter five "mopeds" (drones) heading for Dnipro from the Synelnykivskyi direction. Immediate need for AD response to new GAB launches and Shahed drone activity in Sumy Oblast. Immediate need for AD response to GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts. UAF General Staff provides updated approximate enemy losses, including 2 AD systems. UAF Air Force reports ballistic missile threat from Donetsk. UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV over Zatoka, being engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy named the price of interceptor drones, indicating ongoing need for such systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports the first Patriot battery and missiles from Germany have arrived in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the arrival of a Patriot system and missiles from Germany. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Patriot system and additional missiles have arrived in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports KAAB incoming on Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Counter-GAB Defenses: Urgent requirement for effective countermeasures against large guided bombs (FAB-1500/3000, UMPB-5). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Anti-Armor Assets (Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk Priority): Allocation of additional ATGM systems, FPV drones, and rapid deployment of scatterable mines is critical. Ongoing calls for drone donations (43rd OMBR, 32nd Steel Brigade, Шеф Hayabusa, STERNENKO's "Rusoriz" deficit, Operatyvny ZSU FPV transceiver request). The "previous daily report" recommends immediately reinforcing Chasiv Yar with ATGM teams and combat engineering assets. The Starlink outage significantly constrains UAF FPV drone operations. The destruction of a Ukrainian KrAZ-260 military truck by RF drones indicates a new constraint on UAF ground transport and ammunition logistics, requiring additional secure transport methods or air resupply. Операция Z (Voenkor Русская Весна) posts video appealing for thermal imagers for frontline soldiers, indicating a critical need for equipment directly supporting anti-armor and nighttime operations. STERNENKO indicates high demand for supplies for Pokrovsk and Sumy directions. STERNENKO posts a message implying continued need for drone donations to support frontline operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Civilian Protection: Increased frequency and severity of civilian infrastructure damage necessitate enhanced support for local emergency services. Expansion of forced evacuation in Donetsk Oblast. Oleksandr Vilkul's report on redirecting road repair funds to defense. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a 64-year-old woman severely wounded in Stepnohirsk due to enemy attack. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a 63-year-old man killed in Polohivskyi Raion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports RF dropped explosives from a drone on an ambulance crew in Dniprovskyi district of Kherson, highlighting the need for enhanced civilian protection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a Ukrainian UAV dropped a munition on a parking lot near the Zaporizhzhia NPP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a blast occurred in Saratov with potential fatalities, highlighting a need for improved civilian protection methods. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Counter-Offensive Capability: Sustained Western military aid required. Trump's reported agreement for EU to pay for US-produced weaponry is significant. Domestic scaling of explosives production is positive. New US aid package includes SAU. RBK-Ukraina reports Germany wants to create the strongest army in Europe, with up to 40,000 new fighters annually, potentially shifting the European security dynamic and requiring Ukraine to adapt its own long-term force planning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports Zelenskyy wants to appeal to European allies for funding to increase Ukrainian military salaries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Cybersecurity/IM Infrastructure: The incident with Alfa-Bank's app and discussions on WhatsApp/Telegram blocking in Russia highlight the ongoing cyber and information domain conflict. "Ukrzaliznytsya" strengthening document control for train boarding. Moscow News reports a new Telegram scam. DeepState's report of "all Starlinks down" indicates a critical constraint. The confirmed Starlink outage highlights a critical, immediate communication constraint. While largely resolved, the temporary disruption exposed a vulnerability that requires robust contingency planning. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). CyberBoroshno claims successful blocking of civilian aviation by drones and railway attacks, implying this is a UAF objective to hinder RF logistics across all domains. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Propaganda (Domestic): TASS promotes RF military successes. Repatriation of RF soldiers. Internal reporting on fraud and social issues. Rybar and WarGonzo actively promote RF territorial gains. RF reports casualties in Krasnodar. An-24 crash investigation focuses on technical issues. RF will use "neuro-profiling" on youth. FSB arrests of "extremists". Efforts to support SVO participants and families. TASS reports on Matviyenko's support for mandatory history exam. Kremlin bots spread warnings about WhatsApp blocking. "Two Majors" milbloggers post content to humanize soldiers. TASS reports Klishas calls to expand benefits for "civilian wives". TASS reports Matviyenko's claims about US election interference. Sever.Realii's report on increased treason cases. TASS reports rising gasoline prices. WarGonzo claims "Europeans are not eager to pay." Alex Parker Returns posts images and videos implying southern Russia is beautiful. New "Two Majors" video of RF personnel conveying gratitude. New TASS video of Belousov's meeting. Fighterbomber's video with a masked figure and "BOYCOTT. DON'T BE A PIG.". RF milbloggers discuss the need to review combat training programs. "ZONA SVO" video of an RF soldier criticizing bloggers. Gleb Nikitin's posts highlighting large humanitarian aid shipments. Two Majors' post criticizing "Soviet propaganda". Igor Artamonov's posts about young industrialists. TASS reports on Mars' efforts to resolve product shipment issues. TASS reports on Russian students winning medals. Старше Эдды's discussion of the "scandalous МВД-Медиа video." TASS video of Putin expressing condolences. Moscow news reports on a new skyscraper. AV БогомаZ's posts on a new ice palace. Rybar's post "Kaluga beats migrants". Wildberries & Russ statement on senator's proposal. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a document stating "Sanctions do not affect!". Два майора's video on veteran rehabilitation. НгП раZVедка posts a video showing Russian military personnel in front of a MiG-29. WarGonzo posts a video from "Aldan" (penal colony) unit. «Зона СВО» posts a video of a serviceman of the Luhansk People's Republic Ministry of Defense apologizing. TASS reports GAZ will transition to a four-day work week. Два майора posts a meme suggesting the importance of learning history. TASS reports that Russia will begin creating children's playgrounds. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo with commentary about Hulk Hogan. Novosti Moskvy posts a photo with text about the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) stating tattoos are 'identifiers for the devil'. TASS reports the largest Russian metallurgical plant announced a significant collapse in profits. Операция Z posts a video featuring a Latvian MEP. Colonelcassad's "Satanists in AFU" content. TASS reports on widespread Ukrainian protests against Zelenskyy and NABU/SAP. Two Majors post disinformation that Zelenskyy's bill on NABU/SAP. Alex Parker Returns posts video about an Afghan migrant incident in Omsk. ASTRA reports a criminal case against pilots. Basurin o glavnom posts a political cartoon. Operatsiya Z posts video of paratroopers advancing on the Sumy front. «Зона СВО» discusses blaming "Akhmat". MoD Russia video of military engineers in LPR. TASS reports on Mikhail Gusman's release from TASS. MoD Russia's video of an AFU POW (Eduard Zver). Alex Parker Returns posts a video alleging Ukrainian politician Bezuhla attempted to expose an agent "Tsyrskyi". Two Majors discuss the issue of purchasing military uniforms abroad. Russian milbloggers are leveraging the Starlink outage. Colonelcassad posts photos implying Ukrainian internal dissent. TASS reports Putin congratulated employees of investigative bodies. TASS reports Putin emphasizing suppression of external attempts. Colonelcassad posts video of Belousov checking automated control systems. Операция Z posts photo message featuring Elon Musk. "Narodnaya militsiya DNR" posts a video promoting pro-Russian journalists. Операция Z posts a video featuring a man who identifies himself as a serviceman of the LNR Ministry of Defense apologizing for past statements, aiming to manage internal perceptions of military personnel. TASS reports that the perpetrators of the Crocus terrorist attack have been recognized as sane, signaling internal resolution of a major security event. RF milblogger "НгП раZVедка" reports "Good news from Poltava Oblast," which is a likely domestic propaganda attempt to imply successful RF operations in an area previously not highly active. TASS reports that the organizers of the "Crocus" terrorist attack acted in the interests of Ukraine, a direct and significant piece of domestic propaganda. Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages and text regarding a "Sumy columbarium" and "Closing of America" in Ukraine, indicating another propaganda effort. Операция Z posts photo message about sharply increased youth interest in Orthodoxy, aiming to leverage religious sentiment for societal cohesion. TASS reports blogger Yuri Dud, declared internationally wanted, may be checked for treason, demonstrating ongoing intent to control information and punish perceived dissidents. Operation Z reports FSB has a new series "Spetsy" portraying heroic work of FSB special forces. RBK-Ukraina reports Trump signed a law canceling $9 billion in foreign aid and public broadcasting. Colonelcassad's video of a storm platoon commander promoting patriotic duty and military effectiveness. TASS reports new suspects may emerge in the case of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, part of the internal anti-corruption narrative. Nevinnomyssk Mayor's statement on 37 impacts with no damage is a clear attempt to control local narrative and downplay successful Ukrainian strikes, despite visual evidence of explosions at an industrial target. TASS reports over 200 people working at An-24 crash site in Tynda, part of domestic responsiveness narrative. Операция Z directly disseminates content claiming a ban on "Satanist-Nazis" in Russia, enhancing internal control narratives. TASS reports on Armenian Union President's condemnation of Pashinyan, aiming to exploit regional political divisions for broader geopolitical gain. TASS posts a photo message showing the Cabinet of Ministers discussing preferential mortgages, reinforcing the narrative of governmental care for the population. TASS reports Moscow court arrested businessman Moshkovich's bank accounts. Два майора posts a photo about Starlink outage showing RF's need for its own satellite communication. TASS posts photo message showing Indian PM Modi's achievement. Басурин о главном posts #МЫПОМНИМ photo messages. ASTRA reports "18+" goods will be sold on marketplaces via biometrics, indicating new internal control measures for the population. TASS posts video and analysis of claimed "liberation" of Novoekonomichne, reinforcing RF successes. "Two Majors" posts an analysis regarding Rybar, indicating continued milblogger activity and narrative control. TASS reports Crocus terrorists used drugs to dull fear. Rybar reports Mikhail Gusman dismissed. News of chocolate production halting (Dove/Korkunov) is a minor but visible indicator of logistical or supply chain issues, which RF will likely attempt to spin for domestic consumption. TASS reports successful launch of Soyuz-2.1b with two heliogeophysical satellites, framing it as a national achievement. ASTRA reports Russia is forming a battalion of captured Ukrainian soldiers, which will be framed as a success of prisoner re-education or a show of force against Ukraine. Kotsnews and Arkhangel Spetsnaza post recruitment videos, heavily focused on financial incentives. TASS reports UAF struck Zasyadko mine in Donetsk, which will be leveraged to portray Ukrainian aggression. Mash na Donbasse posts about the drying Starokrymske Reservoir, likely to highlight water issues under Ukrainian control or promote RF as the solution to such problems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS posts video messages claiming FSB and МВД detained co-conspirators of Ukrainian call centers in 4 RF regions, with video showing raids and confiscated items (firearms, cash, phones, credit cards), reinforcing internal security narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Two Majors posts the same video message regarding FSB/MVD detentions of call center co-conspirators, aiming to amplify the message. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Amur Oblast authorities will pay 1 million rubles to families of deceased residents from the An-24 crash, reinforcing state support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA posts video about the 1 million ruble payout to families of An-24 crash victims in Amur Oblast, also reinforcing the state support narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports the Cabinet of Ministers will pay 5 million rubles to families of deceased in the An-24 crash and that flight recorders have been found and will be transported to Moscow, reinforcing state responsiveness and investigation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Rosaviatsia and Rostransnadzor will initiate a check of Angara Airlines following the An-24 crash, projecting accountability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Старше Эдды posts an image suggesting commercial directors are among the highest paid professions in Russia in 2025, with an average salary of 292,370 rubles/month, for domestic economic reassurance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Butusov Plus posts photos suggesting a return to Stalinist cult in Russia, with children being taught that Stalin was a great strategist, indicating a long-term ideological manipulation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Arkhangel Spetsnaza posts a photo message congratulating the 45th VDV Brigade on their holiday, for immediate morale building. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Rybar posts a video about "combat control know-how" showing Russian military officers discussing networked systems for coordinating devices and software, aiming to project technological advancement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора posts an image of recruitment for contract military service in Russian Federation security agencies, for recruitment and strength projection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Basurin o glavnom posts a photo with a sledgehammer and text implying aggressive retaliation, "He who comes to us with a sword will get a sledgehammer to the head!", promoting a hardline, aggressive narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Sever.Realii reports increased sales of anti-alcoholism drugs in Russia, indicating public health issues affecting morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Kia recalling almost 80,000 Sportage crossovers in Russia due to defect, which could cause public frustration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Moscow News reports a proposal in State Duma to pay parents of schoolchildren before September 1st, showing state care for the population. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Mars ceased production of Dove and Korkunov chocolate bars in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports SF honoring An-24 crash victims. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Rybar posts video on US political influence in Moldova, for domestic consumption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts information regarding the new Chinese marriage law, implicitly critiquing Western values. (CONFIDENCE: LOW). Alex Parker Returns posts information regarding easing of migrant exams in Russia, framed critically, indicating internal dissent. (CONFIDENCE: LOW).
• RF Propaganda (External/Hybrid): Milbloggers disseminate unverified battlefield claims. TASS disseminates negative reports about Ukrainian leadership. Claim of UAF "firefight" in Kremennaya. "Voenkor Kotenok" sows distrust. "Operation Z" reports "fierce clashes" on Cambodia-Thailand border. Peskov frames humanitarian discussions as positive. Alex Parker Returns' interpretation of a physiognomist analyzing Russian negotiator's motivations. TASS reports RF delegation returned from Istanbul. TASS reports Zakharova's statement regarding Russia's potential participation in the Helsinki Final Act conference. TASS cites Russian ambassador to Germany claiming Germany is preparing for full-scale conflict. TASS cites Matviyenko speculating on a Putin-Trump meeting. "Operation Z" amplifies criticisms of Zelenskyy by US Senator Graham and uses The Times report on NABU. TASS reports Hungarian FM Szijjarto's accusations. Alex Parker Returns posts hinting at antisemitism. "Operation Z" amplifies an FT article criticizing Yermak. "Operation Z" cites a Swiss editor claiming Western media "over-idealizes Ukraine." "Operation Z" reports ex-commander-in-chief of AFU, Zaluzhny, states war may last until 2034. Alex Parker Returns posts social media imagery attempting to discredit a Ukrainian journalist. Rybar's "Patriot in short supply" post. Colonelcassad's claim of eliminating Brazilian mercenaries. Operation Z posts a video claiming that former US Ambassador McFaul believes Ukrainians should have the right to refuse military service. WarGonzo posts an image claiming that Ukrainian HUR is increasing drone attacks. Operation Z posts about a British journalist calling for Zelenskyy's resignation. Alex Parker Returns reports Trump's statement on mediating Thailand-Cambodia conflict. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a graphic highlighting a Financial Times article claiming Yermak plays an increasingly presidential role. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo alleging French and EU officials attempted to dissuade Zelenskyy from signing a law on NABU and SAP. Z комитет + карта СВО posts a map. Военкор Котенок posts RF MoD claims on territorial liberation. TASS reports Trump denied intent to strip Musk's companies of subsidies. TASS reports Aliyev expressed condolences. TASS reports the Turkish Foreign Ministry expressed condolences. Kotsnews video frames the Cambodia-Thailand conflict as benefiting "third players." RBK-Ukraina reports a fake SVR claim. RBK-Ukraina reports that Russia is sending kidnapped Ukrainian children to the front. Alex Parker Returns posts a video of Hulk Hogan speaking at a rally. TASS reports on widespread Ukrainian protests against Zelenskyy and NABU/SAP. Two Majors posts a video on the Kherson direction showing drone footage. Alex Parker Returns' text "Military dictator Zelenskyy introduced a bill to the Rada". Colonelcassad's "Satanists in AFU" content. Kadyrov_95's video of volunteer departures. TASS reports RF "siloviki" claim UAF intends to increase grouping near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Butusov Plus posts a photo/video sharing a narrative of children fighting in Lisichansk. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a satirical photo. TASS reports Zelenskyy named the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) section of the front as the most difficult. MoD Russia's video of an AFU POW (Eduard Zver). Alex Parker Returns posts a video alleging Ukrainian politician Bezuhla attempted to expose an agent "Tsyrskyi". TASS reports on France's recognition of Palestine. Rybar's daily operational summary. TASS reports that Russia will be represented at the UN General Assembly. Alex Parker Returns posts video claiming Cambodia is actively using Czech RM-70 Vampir MLRS. Операция Z publishes an FT report on Zelenskyy and Yermak. TASS reports on alleged protests in 12 Ukrainian cities. TASS reports Israel condemns France's decision to recognize Palestine. Rybar's new post titled "ZSU on the border of Thailand" which is likely a false flag or disinformation attempt to link Ukraine to the Cambodia-Thailand conflict. TASS reports that Trump signed a law cutting $9 billion in foreign aid, particularly to foreign media (NPR and PBS), which RF will leverage to undermine international support for Ukraine, portraying a shift in US priorities or a reduction in overall US aid. TASS reports that the organizers of the "Crocus" terrorist attack acted in the interests of Ukraine, a potent false flag to erode international support for Kyiv. Операция Z directly disseminates content claiming a ban on "Satanist-Nazis" in Russia, which will be used for external messaging to discredit Ukraine. TASS reports on Armenian Union President's condemnation of Pashinyan, aiming to exploit internal political divisions for broader geopolitical gain. Два майора provides a morning summary, serving as a key channel for disseminating RF narratives to a broad audience. Рыбарь posts a chronicle of the Special Military Operation, another key channel for RF external messaging. RBK-Ukraina reports Rubio did not support Macron regarding his plans to recognize Palestine as a state, which RF will highlight as Western disunity. Два майора cites MOD Russia's statement on 105 UAVs shot down over Russian regions, indicating a synchronized external propaganda push regarding alleged Ukrainian aggression. RBK-Ukraina reports Witkoff stated US ceased Gaza ceasefire negotiations, which RF will use to highlight US geopolitical failures. RBK-Ukraina provides a summary of night news, indicating strategic messaging C2. Kotsnews comments on Ukrainian authoritarianism and Trump's inconsistency. Alex Parker Returns posts images and claims about riots in the US. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy discussed a possible meeting with Putin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy responded to RF demands to return "Russian children" and "Kursk Oblast residents." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS DG Kondrashov discusses threats of disinformation and AI, likely for international consumption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operation Z posts information regarding the split in the West due to US/Israel criticism of France for recognizing Palestine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Fighterbomber posts multiple photos of a German Aviation Museum, likely to contrast with current conflict or for recruitment. (CONFIDENCE: LOW).
• Ukrainian Information: Ukrainian authorities promptly report civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. UAF General Staff publishes daily RF loss statistics and combat engagement maps. Ukrainian channels highlight impact of attacks on Russian territory (Sochi). STERNENKO's call for drone donations. Return of POWs boosts morale. Addressing corruption concerns. SBU's prevention of terror attacks. Zelenskiy / Official reports on conversations with UK PM Starmer. RBK-Ukraina counters Congresswoman Greene's fake news. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Administration highlights receipt of new ambulances. The General Prosecutor's Office publicizes the detention of a deserting serviceman. Olexiy Biloshitsky posts videos of patrol police evacuating civilians. Butusov Plus provides graphic video of RF personnel elimination. Zviezdec Mangustu and RBK-Ukraina post urgent calls for drone donations. The Coordination Staff for POWs publicizes meetings. Zelenskiy / Official and RBK-Ukraina report on the approval of a draft law strengthening law enforcement and anti-corruption bodies. Oleg Syniehubov's photos of returned POWs. RBK-Ukraina's video on distinguishing civilians from combatants. The General Prosecutor's Office reports on stopping the work of a transnational hacker forum. Oleg Syniehubov posts a video discussing the operational situation in Kharkiv Oblast. General Prosecutor's Office publicizes the detention of an RF agent. Шеф Hayabusa posts a photo discussing why protests are forbidden during wartime. Бутусов ПЛЮС's graphic content criticizing a Russian soldier. KMVA reports a meeting with IMF. Архангел Спецназа posts a photo with text "Gamification". STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF (SSO A) engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. Zelenskiy / Official reports on a good conversation with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy proposed Germany participate in the expertise of the NABU draft law. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video showcasing historical Cossack texts. RBK-Ukraina posts a sarcastic meme about unmarried Russians. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy submitted a draft law to the Rada on NABU and SAP independence. NABU's support for the new draft law. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the urgency. The General Prosecutor's Office reports the head of Sumy Oblast Prosecutor's Office leads a group. RBK-Ukraina reports the death of Hulk Hogan. ОТУ "Харків" posts new drone footage. STERNENKO updates on the anti-corruption legislation. RBK-Ukraina posts photos from Odesa. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet. STERNENKO posts video of a large public gathering in Kyiv. Butusov Plus posts video of Igor Yakovenko. UAF General Staff publishes photos showing a young female athlete. Operatyvny ZSU posts a video featuring a UAF soldier asking for donations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a €340 million contract for HENSOLDT radars. GUR posts a video titled "NOW I WILL POISON WITH GAS". RBK-Ukraina reports a third day of protests in Kyiv. Zelenskiy/Official video confirms the new draft law. Zaporizhzhia ODA posts a video of Zelenskyy discussing the new draft law. KMVA posts a video of Zelenskyy discussing the new draft law. Oleg Syniehubov posts a video of Zelenskyy discussing the new draft law. Operatyvny ZSU posts a message asking for support. RBK-Ukraina reports that the IAEA team was not allowed access to the ZNPP training center. RBK-Ukraina and Operatyvny ZSU report Nazariy Husakov suspected in fraud case. STERNENKO confirms Husakov's suspicion. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy changed the composition of the Stavka. New WarGonzo video titled "Intelligence did not make a mistake." New photo messages from Arkhangel Spetsnaza claim "Another minor organized crime group caught." New US aid package of $330M approved. General Staff provides updated operational information as of 22:00 24.07.25. DeepState reports "all Starlinks down," which requires immediate assessment. New Shahed drones are moving towards Sumy city from the northeast. TASS reports on widespread protests in 10 Ukrainian cities. Alex Parker Returns claims RF forces have secured positions in Pokrovsk. TASS reports on France's recognition of Palestine. The global Starlink outage will continue to cause widespread communication disruption. RF will likely attempt to exploit this immediately. UAF needs to activate backup communication protocols. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports "Ilona, fix it faster." Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo message, a quote, "Independence will be gained." RBK-Ukraina posts photo message warning of RF reconnaissance drones. Operatyvny ZSU posts a photo message featuring Putin with derogatory commentary. RBK-Ukraina immediately reported the death of People's Deputy Yaroslav Rushchyshyn, indicating transparency and rapid information dissemination. RBK-Ukraina photo messages show reactions from "Holos" faction deputies to Rushchyshyn's death. RBK-Ukraina reports US State Department support for a complete ceasefire in Istanbul talks, indicating continued international diplomatic engagement. Nikolaevsky Vanek immediately reported the 5 drones heading for Dnipro from Synelnykivskyi direction, demonstrating real-time information dissemination to the public. Nikolaevsky Vanek confirms all "mopeds" (drones) near Kremenchuk/Svitlovodsk are neutralized, indicating successful AD response and public communication. RBK-Ukraina reports Iran's decision to resume cooperation with IAEA on its nuclear program. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) over Sumy city. RBK-Ukraina publishes photos regarding GAB launches in Kharkiv. Operatyvny ZSU posts videos and photos confirming drone activity and explosions in Rostov and Tambov Oblasts, explicitly highlighting "good UAVs" causing a "restless night" for Russians, indicating a clear Ukrainian information operation to emphasize successful long-range strikes. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos on ongoing protests regarding the NABU/SAP reform bill, providing direct insight into Ukrainian public sentiment and internal political dynamics. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video of President Zelenskyy stating that everyone with access to state secrets must undergo lie detector tests, which aims to project transparency and commitment to anti-corruption efforts. Два майора posts a video depicting street protests in Ukraine, likely relating to "Геть, Ганьба и Зрада" (Away with Shame and Betrayal) slogans. UAF General Staff provides updated approximate enemy losses (980 personnel, 2 AD systems), immediately disseminating impact of UAF operations. RBK-Ukraina reports Witkoff stated US ceased Gaza ceasefire negotiations, potentially to highlight a positive for Ukraine or Western unity, given the focus of the source. RBK-Ukraina provides a summary of night news, indicating strategic messaging. Operational ZSU provides an updated General Staff summary for 08:00 25.07.2025. Office of the Prosecutor General reports over 100M UAH transferred to ARMA from corruption case. Operatyvny ZSU posts a video titled "Occupiers must be killed and you can help with that!" Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration promotes handball for veterans. RBK-Ukraina reports on new law on NABU/SAP: Zelenskyy disclosed criteria for polygraph tests. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports the SBU detained another FSB agent who helped RF shell Kharkiv, with photos showing the detention. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina posts an image captioned: "Zelenskyy replied why he did not conduct a dialogue on the law on NABU and SAP." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina posts an image captioned: "Eurointegration will not be derailed: Zelenskyy promises a decision on NABU and SAP." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy held a meeting with journalists. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports Zelenskyy wants to appeal to European allies for funding to increase Ukrainian military salaries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina posts an image captioned: "What happens if the Rada fails the new NABU bill: Zelenskyy's answer." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa posts a video with text overlays discussing NABU and SAP, protests, and financial figures, appearing critical of funding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy responded to RF demands to return "Russian children" and "Kursk Oblast residents." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO reports Zelenskyy proposed new NABU/SAP bill due to protests. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy named the price of interceptor drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). GUR cyber specialists conducted a "digital strike" against the occupation administration of Crimea, destroying all data on "government" servers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). SBU detained a Russian spotter in Kharkiv, who reportedly expressed satisfaction with GAB attacks on the city, claiming many people were "torn apart." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports MP Gerashchenko stated Zelenskyy's new NABU bill was submitted to Rada with procedural violations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports the first Patriot battery and missiles from Germany have arrived in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the arrival of a Patriot system and missiles from Germany. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Patriot system and additional missiles have arrived in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Oleksandr Vilkul shares photos of children of servicemen attending a summer camp, presenting a positive image. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukraine: Public remains under severe stress. Likely increase calls for more robust air defense. Resilience remains high. Differentiated air raid system may reduce panic. Continued civilian casualties will heighten anxiety and anger. Rising food prices may add to economic strain. The prevention of the Kyiv terror attack will boost public confidence. The explosion of the civilian dredge ship "Delta-Lotsman" will likely contribute to public anxiety. ASTRA's interview with a woman from Odesa market indicates significant public anger. Updated casualty figures in Cherkasy. Traffic restrictions in Kyiv. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration video showing housing repairs contributes to a narrative of resilience. RBK-Ukraina reports EU Commission's welcome for NABU/SAP reform. The nationwide air alarm. Forced evacuation in Donetsk Oblast. RBK-Ukraina reports on military registration for 17-year-olds. Attack on Norwegian humanitarian base in Mykolaiv. ASTRA reports 42 injured in Kharkiv. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports forced evacuation in Donetsk Oblast. New ballistic missile threat from northeast will cause further stress. Claims of RF advances in Chasiv Yar, if widely confirmed, will be a significant blow to morale. STERNENKO's report on "Rusoriz" deficit may cause concern. Serhiy Lysak's report on continued shelling of Nikopol. Oleksandr Vilkul's report on reduced road repairs. RBK-Ukraina reports Russia sending kidnapped Ukrainian children to the front will evoke outrage. "Ukrzaliznytsia" strengthening document control. Butusov Plus video showing Mirnohrad in ruins. ASTRA provides multiple photos of destruction and rescue efforts in Odesa. STERNENKO posts video of a large public gathering in Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina reports a third day of protests in Kyiv. General Prosecutor's Office reports exposing a fraud scheme. RBK-Ukraina reports IAEA team was not allowed access to ZNPP training center. RBK-Ukraina and Operatyvny ZSU report Nazariy Husakov suspected in fraud case. TASS reports on widespread Ukrainian protests against Zelenskyy and NABU/SAP. The global Starlink outage will have a severe negative impact on public morale. The death of People's Deputy Yaroslav Rushchyshyn is a morale blow, especially given the current political climate. New drone threats to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, particularly Pavlohrad, will heighten public anxiety in central Ukraine. The immediate report of five "mopeds" (drones) heading for Dnipro from Synelnykivskyi direction by Nikolaevsky Vanek will cause real-time heightened anxiety. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) over Sumy city, causing further anxiety for residents. Continued GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts will continue to cause significant anxiety and public concern. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos showing ongoing protests in Kyiv regarding the NABU/SAP reform bill, indicating continued public discontent and impact on morale regarding governmental transparency. Два майора posts a video depicting street protests in Ukraine with strong anti-government slogans ("Геть, Ганьба и Зрада"), directly reflecting negative public sentiment. Oleksandr Vilkul reports Kryvyi Rih situation controlled, which provides a localized boost to morale. Operatyvny ZSU reports on the consequences of enemy strikes on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming continued civilian impact and likely concern. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a 64-year-old woman severely wounded in Stepnohirsk due to enemy attack, reinforcing negative public sentiment due to civilian casualties. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports air raid alert cleared, providing temporary relief. UAF Air Force reports ballistic missile threat cleared, providing temporary relief. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a 63-year-old man killed in Polohivskyi Raion, increasing public distress. RBK-Ukraina reports combined RF attack on Dniprovskyi district of Kherson with aftermath video showing damaged vehicles/buildings and bloodstains. Kotsnews notes Ukrainian authoritarianism and Trump's inconsistency. TASS reports UAF struck Zasyadko mine in Donetsk, contributing to local distress. Mash na Donbasse posts about the drying Starokrymske Reservoir, which may cause concern about water supply. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Oleg Syniehubov reports 5 casualties remain in hospitals from yesterday's Kharkiv attack, maintaining public concern. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina posts an image captioned: "Zelenskyy replied why he did not conduct a dialogue on the law on NABU and SAP," highlighting ongoing public debate. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina posts an image captioned: "Eurointegration will not be derailed: Zelenskyy promises a decision on NABU and SAP," aiming to reassure public on EU integration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina posts an image captioned: "What happens if the Rada fails the new NABU bill: Zelenskyy's answer," indicating public concern over political stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa posts a video with text overlays discussing NABU and SAP, protests, and financial figures, appearing critical of funding, reflecting public discontent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports RF dropped explosives from a drone on an ambulance crew in Dniprovskyi district of Kherson, which will further increase public outrage and anxiety. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Oleksandr Vilkul shares photos of children of servicemen attending a summer camp, which aims to boost morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports UAV in the Sumy suburbs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports KAAB incoming on Kharkiv, causing further public anxiety. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a blast occurred in Saratov with potential fatalities, causing public concern in RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA confirms Saratov explosion and casualty. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts video of the Saratov explosion aftermath. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russia: Public in affected areas experiences alarm due to drone attacks. Return of RF military personnel boosts morale. Official messaging attempts to project stability. Civilian flight disruptions in Sochi and railway worker casualties increase frustration. An-24 crash will generate significant domestic concern and mourning. Confirmed civilian casualties in Krasnodar will increase anger. Arrest of former governor and Bryansk Vice-Governor highlights corruption. Public gathering in Kaluga. FSB arrests of citizens calling for military assassinations. Alfa-Bank app failure and WhatsApp/Telegram blocking discussions. A firefighter's death and a woman's body found in the Novoshakhtinsk shopping center fire. News of potential teacher job losses. The strike at the Turkish NPP built by Rosatom. Rising gasoline prices. Searches in Khimki administration and charges against Bryansk Vice-Governor. Alex Parker Returns' posts implying summer beauty. New TASS confirmation of 5 railway workers killed in An-24 crash. New Moscow news video of flooded streets. Sever.Realii reports detention of ex-Wagner mercenary. TASS reports Vice-Governor of Bryansk Oblast not admitting guilt. Moscow News reports "demographic special forces" formation. New Health Ministry amendments. Conviction of former Klintsy City Council Deputy for fraud. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki report on court denying compensation. The declaration of three days of mourning in Khabarovsk Krai. TASS reports that investigators are seeking the arrest of three Interior Ministry employees. Север.Реалии reports that lawyer Maria Bontsler remains in custody. TASS reports Putin's condolences. ASTRA reports the death of two female railway workers in Sochi. Rybar's post "Kaluga beats migrants". Wildberries & Russ statement on the proposed ban. Sever.Realii reports FSB detained nine Russians. ASTRA reports "Andrey Sakharov Institute" and "Peace. Progress. Human Rights" movement declared "undesirable". Два майора's video on veteran rehabilitation. TASS reports the arrest of Aleksandr Bogashov. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki reports a military police officer beating an elderly serviceman. TASS reports GAZ moving to a four-day work week. Novosti Moskvy reporting on metro disruptions. The arrest of a factory employee. TASS reports the arrest of Gleb Trifonov. RBK-Ukraina reports the largest Russian metallurgical plant announced a significant collapse in profits. Novosti Moskvy reporting 83% of Russians are religious. TASS reports of protests against Zelenskyy's NABU/SAP law. Два майора posts a video depicting Special Forces Marine Detachment. Alex Parker Returns posts a video depicting an incident in Omsk. ASTRA reports a criminal case against pilots. Basurin o glavnom posts a political cartoon. Operatsiya Z posts video of paratroopers advancing on the Sumy front. «Зона СВО» discusses blaming "Akhmat". MoD Russia video of military engineers in LPR. TASS reports on Mikhail Gusman's release from TASS. MoD Russia's video of an AFU POW (Eduard Zver). Alex Parker Returns posts a video alleging Ukrainian politician Bezuhla attempted to expose an agent "Tsyrskyi". Two Majors discuss the issue of purchasing military uniforms abroad. Russian milbloggers leveraging the Starlink outage. Colonelcassad posts photos implying Ukrainian internal dissent. TASS reports baggage delays on Turkish Airlines flights. Public perception of safety and state effectiveness will be impacted by the reports of the seizure of property from a "Crocus" terrorist attack accomplice and the redirection of railway cargo due to incidents in Rostov Oblast. New reports of drone activity in Novocherkassk and Yelets will increase public anxiety in border regions. TASS's statement that Crocus perpetrators are sane will aim to provide a sense of legal closure but may also fuel public anger. RF milblogger "НгП раZVедка" reports "Good news from Poltava Oblast," which aims to boost morale but implies ongoing RF offensive activity, potentially raising concerns among the public for a wider war. The declaration of a "red" level drone threat for Lipetsk Oblast will heighten anxiety in a new RF region. TASS reports that the organizers of the "Crocus" terrorist attack acted in the interests of Ukraine, a direct attempt to link Ukraine to terrorism. TASS reports the "carpet" plan in North Ossetia will cause public alarm. Операция Z posts photo message about sharply increased youth interest in Orthodoxy, indicating an attempt to rally public support through religious narratives. ASTRA reports Krasnodar Krai Operative Headquarters reports drone attack. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train, injuring two, confirming public impact. НгП раZVедка reports Nevinnomyssk is reflecting the most massive attack on the North Caucasus during the entire SVO, this will likely cause further public anxiety. TASS reports blogger Yuri Dud, declared internationally wanted, may be checked for treason, indicating a continued crackdown on internal dissent within RF. Temporary flight restrictions in 8 RF airports due to UAV threats. Operation Z promotes a new FSB series "Spetsy" portraying heroic work of FSB special forces. TASS reports new suspects may emerge in the case of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, indicating ongoing internal management. Nevinnomyssk Mayor's statement claiming 37 impacts with no losses, despite visual evidence of a strike, is an attempt to control public perception and mitigate panic. НгП раZVедка's "Our victory, stand down" in Nevinnomyssk also aims to reassure the public. TASS reports over 200 people working at An-24 crash site in Tynda, which will be framed as a positive, organized state response. RBK-Ukraina reports 45 flights delayed in Sochi airport, which could cause public frustration. Оперативны ZSU posts videos confirming drone activity and explosions in Rostov and Tambov Oblasts, which RF authorities will need to manage public sentiment around. TASS posts a photo message showing the Cabinet of Ministers discussing preferential mortgages, indicating a focus on social welfare that aims to improve public sentiment. TASS reports Mishustin stated RF is forming a closed-loop economy. TASS reports Moscow court arrested businessman Moshkovich's bank accounts. Два майора posts a photo about Starlink outage showing RF's need for its own satellite communication. TASS reports flags lowered in Khabarovsk in mourning for crash victims. TASS reports a Boeing S7 flight to Sochi is returning to Novosibirsk airport, indicating continued public inconvenience and concern due to airspace closures. TASS reports Crocus terrorists used drugs to dull fear. News of chocolate production halting (Dove/Korkunov) is a minor but visible indicator of logistical or supply chain issues. TASS reports a man was detained in Cherepovets who sold data on 27,000+ Russian citizens to Ukrainian call centers, which will be framed as a domestic counter-intelligence success. Alex Parker Returns posts images and claims about riots in the US. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS posts video messages claiming FSB and МВД detained co-conspirators of Ukrainian call centers in 4 RF regions, with video showing raids and confiscated items (firearms, cash, phones, credit cards), which could reassure the public on internal security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Two Majors posts the same video message regarding FSB/MVD detentions of call center co-conspirators, aiming to amplify the message. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Amur Oblast authorities will pay 1 million rubles to families of deceased residents from the An-24 crash, which aims to boost public morale by demonstrating state support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA posts video about the 1 million ruble payout to families of An-24 crash victims in Amur Oblast, also aiming to boost public morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports the Cabinet of Ministers will pay 5 million rubles to families of deceased in the An-24 crash and that flight recorders have been found and will be transported to Moscow, projecting state responsiveness and investigation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Rosaviatsia and Rostransnadzor will initiate a check of Angara Airlines following the An-24 crash, projecting accountability to the public. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Старше Эдды posts an image suggesting commercial directors are among the highest paid professions in Russia in 2025, with an average salary of 292,370 rubles/month, which aims to reassure the public about economic opportunities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Butusov Plus posts photos suggesting a return to Stalinist cult in Russia, with children being taught that Stalin was a great strategist, implying an effort to shape future generations' views. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Basurin o glavnom posts a photo with a sledgehammer and text implying aggressive retaliation, "He who comes to us with a sword will get a sledgehammer to the head!", indicating a hardline stance to rally public support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Sever.Realii reports increased sales of anti-alcoholism drugs in Russia, indicating public health issues affecting morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Kia recalling almost 80,000 Sportage crossovers in Russia due to defect, which will be framed as a company issue, not a state issue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Moscow News reports a proposal in State Duma to pay parents of schoolchildren before September 1st, which would be framed positively for public morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Mars ceased production of Dove and Korkunov chocolate bars in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports SF honoring An-24 crash victims. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a blast occurred in Saratov with potential fatalities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA confirms Saratov explosion and casualty. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts video of the Saratov explosion aftermath. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports the Federation Council approved a law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPN services, and for transferring subscriber numbers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Military Personnel: Public appeals for drones and Starlink. Dry rations investigation. Arkhangel Spetsnaza's struggle to collect donations. Calls from "Филолог в засаде" for direct feedback. Butusov Plus's report on a military widow. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts about a military beating children. Alex Parker Returns posting a video of soldiers thanking for humanitarian aid. "Two Majors" video showing RF personnel expressing gratitude. WarGonzo video of soldier losing a foot. "ZONA SVO" video of an RF soldier criticizing bloggers. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki report on court denying compensation. Gleb Nikitin's post about providing additional equipment. Two Majors' video showcasing a tactical medical kit ("HEALER" IFAK). Butusov Plus's graphic posts critical of a Russian soldier. Два майора's video on veteran rehabilitation. WarGonzo posts a video from "Aldan" (penal colony) unit. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki reports a military police officer beating an elderly serviceman. «Зона СВО» posts a video of an Luhansk People's Republic Ministry of Defense serviceman apologizing. The previous daily report notes costly assaults by RF units on the Avdiivka axis. Kadyrov_95's video of volunteer departures. Два майора posts a video depicting Special Forces Marine Detachment. Alex Parker Returns posts a video depicting an SVO veteran's involvement. TASS reports Balitsky awarded a convicted Major General Popov. Putin's praise for a veteran application. «Зона СVO» discussing blaming "Akhmat". Два майора's report on the Investigative Committee's case against MoD employees. ASTRA video of the officer discussing missile fragments near Grozny. MoD Russia's video of an AFU POW (Eduard Zver). DeepState's report that "all Starlinks are down". The global Starlink outage. Two Majors noting Starlink's use by "the enemy." Colonelcassad's video showing a destroyed Ukrainian KrAZ-260 military truck (potentially ammunition carrier) is likely intended to boost RF military morale by showcasing successful drone strikes against UAF logistics. Colonelcassad's video of a storm platoon commander emphasizes the professionalism and resilience of RF soldiers. Colonelcassad posts videos showing effective strikes by specific RF military units, which likely serves to boost morale and a sense of effectiveness among military personnel. Colonelcassad posts videos showing FPV drone as RPG carrier, which could boost morale by demonstrating offensive innovation. Colonelcassad posts videos showing FPV drone operators from 5th Separate Guards Tank Brigade hitting enemy logistics, demonstrating effective operations which can boost morale. Операция Z (Voenkor Русская Весна) posts video appealing for thermal imagers for frontline soldiers, indicating specific unit-level equipment needs. ASTRA reports Russia is forming a battalion of captured Ukrainian soldiers, which may impact morale among other RF units. Kotsnews and Arkhangel Spetsnaza post recruitment videos, heavily focused on financial incentives, indicating a need to replenish forces and boost morale. MoD Russia posts video of 20th Guards Combined Arms Army servicemen training in assault tactics in LPR, aiming to project readiness and professionalism. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Arkhangel Spetsnaza posts a photo message congratulating the 45th VDV Brigade on their holiday, which is for unit morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора posts an image of recruitment for contract military service in Russian Federation security agencies, aiming to boost recruitment and military morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts video of a Murmansk cemetery with hundreds of graves, which could be for military morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts video of a captured Ukrainian serviceman stating he feared desertion and observed life worsening since Maidan, used to demoralize UAF forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Oleksandr Vilkul shares photos of children of servicemen attending a summer camp, indicating efforts to support military families and boost morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports the flight recorders of the crashed An-24 are damaged but likely suitable for decoding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• China-EU Relations (RF narrative): TASS reports on Xi Jinping's call. Оперативний ЗСУ reports EU-China Summit did not yield significant progress. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• US-Ukraine Relations (RF narrative): "Operatsiya Z" amplifies criticism of Zelenskyy by US Senator Graham. TASS reports Peskov's comment that Kyiv "begs for weapons." Operation Z posts a video claiming that former US Ambassador McFaul believes Ukrainians should have the right to refuse military service. РБК-Україна reports Trump denied intent to strip Musk's companies of subsidies. Alex Parker Returns' posts using Hulk Hogan to spread anti-Ukrainian sentiment. TASS reports that Trump signed a law cutting $9 billion in foreign aid, particularly to foreign media (NPR and PBS), which RF will leverage to undermine international support for Ukraine, portraying a shift in US priorities or a reduction in overall US aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports US should create permanent negotiation team for Ukraine settlement, writes NYT. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• US-EU-Ukraine Weapons Funding: Operatyvny ZSU reports Donald Trump stating agreement where EU will fully pay for US-produced weaponry. Germany potentially transferring two Patriot systems is positive. US approval for repair equipment for Bradley and HAWK systems. Zelenskiy / Official reports a good conversation with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy proposed Germany participate in the expertise of the NABU draft law. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that German HENSOLDT will produce TRML-4D and SPEXER 2000 radars for Ukraine for €340 million. New US aid package of $330M approved. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports Zelenskyy wants to appeal to European allies for funding to increase Ukrainian military salaries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Two Majors posts an image captioned: "USA allowed Ukraine to repair previously purchased equipment for money." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports the first Patriot battery and missiles from Germany have arrived in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the arrival of a Patriot system and missiles from Germany. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Patriot system and additional missiles have arrived in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Istanbul Negotiations: Zelenskiy/Official confirms RF was offered immediate ceasefire. Peskov frames humanitarian discussions as positive. Alex Parker Returns' interpretation of a physiognomist analyzing Russian negotiator's motivations. TASS reports RF delegation returned from Istanbul. TASS reports Zakharova's statement regarding Russia's potential participation in the Helsinki Final Act conference. RBK-Ukraina reports US State Department support for a complete ceasefire in Istanbul talks, indicating continued international diplomatic engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy discussed a possible meeting with Putin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russia-Uzbekistan Relations: Putin and Mirziyoyev's phone call expresses satisfaction. Kadyrov_95 posts a video congratulating Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• US Cybersecurity: TASS reports the US Department of Homeland Security suffered a hacker attack on Microsoft SharePoint. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Southeast Asian Border Conflict: Escalation of clashes between Cambodia and Thailand. Russian ambassador advises tourists to avoid border. RBK-Ukraina reports Cambodia calls on Thailand to cease hostilities. Rybar's new post emphasizes the "escalation." Alex Parker Returns posts a statement attributed to Trump. Kotsnews video frames the Cambodia-Thailand conflict as benefiting "third players." TASS states RF expresses concern. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a satirical photo. Colonelcassad posts a map and photos detailing the escalation. Alex Parker Returns posts video claiming Cambodia is actively using Czech RM-70 Vampir MLRS against Thailand. TASS reports the UN Security Council will hold a meeting on July 25 regarding the escalation between Cambodia and Thailand. TASS reports 14 civilians and 1 serviceman killed, 46 injured in Thailand. Operatyvny ZSU posts multiple videos confirming conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). WarGonzo posts photos stating the border conflict "may escalate into war." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• UK-Ukraine Relations: Zelenskiy/Official spoke with UK PM Starmer, thanking for Rammstein leadership and new sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russia-Azerbaijan Relations: Alex Parker Returns and TASS reports Zakharova's statement that the release of detained Russian citizens by Azerbaijan. ASTRA posts photo of Azerbaijani publication identifying three military personnel allegedly involved in downing an AZAL plane. TASS reports Aliyev expressed condolences. Kotsnews reports Mikhail Gusman's dismissal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russia-Armenia Relations: TASS reports Pashinyan confirmed Armenia's intention to continue work in the EAEU. TASS reports Pashinyan expressed condolences. TASS reports Armenian Union President Ara Abrahamyan states Pashinyan's call to seize Catholicos Garegin II's residence devalues the Armenian Apostolic Church and is a strategic mistake. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Hungary-Ukraine Relations: TASS reports Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjarto stated Hungary will not supply weapons to Ukraine. Operation Z posts video of Hungarian FM Szijjarto criticizing Ukraine's potential EU accession. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Swiss-Ukraine Relations (RF Narrative): "Operation Z" amplifies criticism from a Swiss editor on the "over-idealization" of Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF narrative).
• EU-Ukraine Relations: RBK-Ukraina reports the EU Commission "welcomed" the preparation of a new bill regarding NABU/SAP activities. RBK-Ukraina also reports that Merz and Macron agreed to discuss the NABU/SAP scandal. RBK-Ukraina reports that Macron and Costa dissuaded Zelenskyy from signing the law on NABU and SAP. RBK-Ukraina reports over 40 OSCE countries are launching the "Moscow Mechanism" due to torture of Ukrainian prisoners. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Netherlands and 40 OSCE countries are initiating an investigation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina posts an image captioned: "Eurointegration will not be derailed: Zelenskyy promises a decision on NABU and SAP." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Lithuania-NATO Relations: Vooin DV reports Lithuanian Armed Forces Commander General Raimundas Vaikšnoras stated the country has prepared infrastructure for additional US and NATO troops. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Turkey-Russia Relations: TASS reports a Russian citizen sought for embezzlement of 600 million rubles has been deported. TASS reports the Turkish Foreign Ministry expressed condolences. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• IMF-Ukraine Relations: KMVA reports a meeting with International Monetary Fund representatives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• IAEA-Ukraine Relations: RBK-Ukraina reports that the IAEA team was not allowed access to the ZNPP training center. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• France-Palestine Relations: TASS and RBK-Ukraina report France will recognize the State of Palestine in September. TASS reports Israel condemns France's decision to recognize Palestine. RBK-Ukraina reports Rubio did not support Macron regarding his plans to recognize Palestine as a state. RBK-Ukraina reports Witkoff stated US ceased Gaza ceasefire negotiations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operation Z posts information regarding the split in the West due to US/Israel criticism of France for recognizing Palestine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Iran Nuclear Program: WSJ reports Iran decided to resume cooperation with IAEA on its nuclear program. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Serbia: RBK-Ukraina reports Serbia named conditions for supporting sanctions against Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Germany: RBK-Ukraina reports Germany wants to create the strongest army in Europe, with up to 40,000 new fighters annually. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

1. Sustained Deep Strike Campaign with Escalated Lethality and Enhanced Airfield Security: RF will continue to launch high-speed UAV (high volume), missile, and increasingly, GAB (including FAB-3000/UMPB-5) attacks at key Ukrainian oblasts to exhaust UAF AD, inflict damage, and degrade morale. Targeting of fortified strongpoints and urban areas with FAB-3000/UMPB-5 will become more frequent. Civilian areas remain at high risk. Casualties in Krasnodar will fuel RF resolve for retaliation. RF will continue targeted drone strikes against UAF C2 and UAV control points, and potentially logistics nodes. RF will continue to claim strikes on Ukrainian MIC. Colonelcassad's reference to UMPB D-30SN Missile System implies development or deployment of new guided munitions systems. New ballistic missile threat from northeast will persist. New threat of aviation weapon use in Synelnykivskyi district. Kharkiv will remain a primary target. The AFU Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetropats Oblast. The confirmed use of P-800 Onyx anti-ship missiles for ground attack against Odesa signals a persistent and high-priority threat. UAF Air Force reports continued enemy reconnaissance and strike UAV activity across Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Poltava. RF may continue using or be accused of using chemical weapons, as indicated by the GUR message. RF is likely to conduct further cross-border aerial operations. New Shahed drones are currently moving towards Sumy city. New missile threats to Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, and drone threats to Poltava Oblast, indicate immediate continuation of deep strike campaign. RF claims aviation strike on a UAF HQ in Kherson. RBK-Ukraina reports drone attacks on Rostov Oblast. Traffic over the Crimean Bridge has been suspended, likely due to security incidents related to these strikes. New reports from ASTRA confirm residents of Novocherkassk are again reporting a large number of drones and explosions. Igor Artamonov warns of a UAV attack threat in Yelets and Yelets district, indicating RF's continued expectation of Ukrainian drone strikes on its territory. New groups of enemy strike UAVs are moving from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk, with specific reports of 5 drones heading for Dnipro from Synelnykivskyi direction, indicating an immediate continuation of targeted drone strikes in central Ukraine. RF has declared a "red" level drone threat for Lipetsk Oblast. ASTRA reports "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) implemented in North Ossetia and other SKFO regions due to UAV threat, indicating heightened AD for critical areas. Temporary flight restrictions in 8 RF airports are indicative of continued expectation of UAV attacks. RF will likely increase security measures around airfields due to potential Ukrainian strikes. TASS reports "Grad" MLRS strikes in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued conventional support for deep strike. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train, injuring two, showing continued willingness to risk civilian targets to defend against Ukrainian drones. Continued GAB launches on Sumy Oblast. НгП раZVедка's claim of "Our victory, stand down" in Nevinnomyssk, while contradicted by visual evidence of explosions at an industrial plant, suggests RF's continued focus on defensive AD operations. The mayor's statement on Nevinnomyssk further reinforces this. Continued GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts. Continued flight delays in Sochi indicate ongoing air defense activity and impacts on civilian aviation. Operatyvny ZSU posts videos and photos highlighting drone attacks on Rostov and Tambov Oblasts, which signals continued intent for long-range strikes into RF. TASS reports that flight restrictions at 8 airports have been lifted, implying that RF anticipates the drone threats to be resolved, but this could quickly change. Igor Artamonov reports "yellow level" drone threat lifted, implying a return to normal operational tempo in specific RF border areas. ASTRA reports Timashevsk railway station in Krasnodar Krai without power after UAV attack, 2 train passengers injured. Operatyvny ZSU reports railway station building in Peschanokopskoye, Rostov Oblast, damaged by UAV strike. STERNENKO posts video of drone attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant, mayor claims "over 20 hits," confirming continued deep strikes. UAF Air Force reports ballistic missile threat from Donetsk. UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV over Zatoka, being engaged, indicating continued aerial reconnaissance. Operational ZSU reports explosions in occupied Donetsk, implying continued RF deep strikes in Ukraine or Ukrainian strikes into occupied territory, specifically 8 impacts on RF base and railway infrastructure. RF will continue space launches for dual-use satellites. TASS reports UAF struck Zasyadko mine in Donetsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). MoD Russia posts video claiming a Grad MLRS crew of the 44th Army Corps destroyed UAV command posts, manpower, and armored vehicles of AFU units in a forested area in Kharkiv direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts a video alleging the strike on Cherkasy was by an Iskander-K targeting an abandoned 41st Guards Tank Division infrastructure, Hotel "Vlada" (alleged UAF personnel lodging), and garage cooperatives (alleged UAV production). (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). TASS posts video claiming TOF forces during "July Storm" exercises conducted a missile strike on targets in the Sea of Japan, showing naval vessels and ground-based missile systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports RF dropped explosives from a drone on an ambulance crew in Dniprovskyi district of Kherson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a Novosibirsk-Sochi flight returned due to depressurization after takeoff, indicating continued Russian air defense measures around civilian air travel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports UAV in the Sumy suburbs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a Ukrainian UAV dropped a munition on a parking lot near the Zaporizhzhia NPP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports UAVs attacked the Tambov Powder Plant. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russia plans to use Austrian-made components for missiles, indicating continued sourcing of foreign components for its missile program. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports KAAB incoming on Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a blast occurred in Saratov. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA confirms the Saratov explosion and casualty. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts video of the Saratov explosion aftermath. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
   • INDICATORS: Continued air raid alerts; reports of explosions/casualties in urban centers; active AD engagements; confirmation of further Shahed/missile/GAB attacks; RF tactical aviation highly active; continued RF claims of targeting UAF C2/UAV/MIC infrastructure; RF claims of disrupting Ukrainian logistics with FABs; observed launches of P-800 Onyx or similar high-speed missiles against coastal targets; further reports or accusations of chemical weapon use; new reports of cross-border aviation strikes. Continued suspension of Crimean Bridge traffic. Continued reporting of drone activity in Rostov and other border Oblasts. New air raid alerts and drone sightings in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro, Pavlohrad, Samara, Synelnykivskyi districts). Continued flight restrictions in Russian airports. Confirmed Grad MLRS strikes on UAF UAV control points. Reports of explosions/fire at industrial sites within RF. Increased flight delays/cancellations in RF airports, especially those near recent attacks. Continued reports of drone activity and damage in Tambov Oblast, particularly at the powder plant. lifted drone alerts in specific RF border areas. Confirmed Soyuz launches and satellite deployments. Continued reports of drone activity and damage in Zaporizhzhia NPP vicinity.
2. Intensified Mechanized Offensive on Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk Axes with Probes on Other Axes: RF forces will continue and likely intensify coordinated company-to-battalion sized mechanized assaults in Chasiv Yar and Donetsk (Pokrovsk axis), supported by heavy indirect fire and GABs, aiming for significant operational breakthrough that could collapse a section of the defensive line. RF will continue localized probes and assaults in Kharkiv/Sumy directions and may increase pressure on Zaporizhzhia axis. RF will increasingly use "super-small assault groups," employing FPV drones. RF milblogger photo from Kupyansk direction confirms continued interest. "Two Majors" claims on Konstantinovka axis indicate continued offensive pressure. Операция Z claims on Novoekonomichne and Dmytrov (Mirnohrad) further indicate persistent offensive pressure. Colonelcassad's claims of extensive advances within Chasiv Yar increase the likelihood. The previous daily report states a high likelihood of a major ground assault on Chasiv Yar within 48-72 hours. The shift towards small-unit probing attacks with FPV drone swarms and EW suppression will likely continue across the front. Vooin DV posts photo/video claiming 51st Guards Combined Arms Army liberated Novoekonomichne. RF milblogger "Operatsiya Z" claims Russian army broke into Kupyansk. TASS reports RF "siloviki" claim UAF intends to increase grouping near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Z комитет + карта СVO's map of Krasnoarmeyskoye direction indicates continued offensive and defensive preparations. Operatsiya Z's video of paratroopers advancing on the Sumy front. Colonelcassad's South-Donetsk landscape photos confirm continued combat. TASS reports Zelenskyy named the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) section of the front as the most difficult. Alex Parker Returns claims RF forces have secured positions in Pokrovsk. Rybar's latest operational summary with maps reinforces continued ground offensive pressure. The Starlink outage's temporary nature likely means RF did not fully capitalize on this, but will still attempt to leverage residual disruption. RF milbloggers are already highlighting this outage. RF milblogger "Operatsiya Z" posts drone footage implying continued offensive operations on the Zaporizhzhia front. НгП раZVедка reports "Good news from Sumy direction," indicating an immediate intent for offensive action. Colonelcassad video shows drone footage with thermal imaging, documenting strikes on buildings, vehicles, a communication tower, and military assets. Rybar's video showing a main battle tank transport, while unlocated, indicates ongoing military vehicle movements that could support offensive operations. Colonelcassad's video showing a destroyed Ukrainian KrAZ-260 military truck (potentially ammunition carrier) confirms RF's continued effectiveness in disrupting UAF logistics on the ground, likely aiding their offensive efforts by limiting UAF resupply. TASS reports that the liberation of Novoekonomichne allows RF to put pressure on AFU near Krasnyi Lyman and "seriously complicate" enemy logistics, highlighting a strategic intent for RF ground operations. RF Army reports cleaning up two settlements near Krasnoarmeysk in DNR. Colonelcassad's video of a storm platoon commander detailing offensive tactics further solidifies RF intent for sustained ground pressure. Colonelcassad posts videos showing specific RF units (336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade and the 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Division of the 5th Army Group "Vostok") conducting strikes on enemy manpower and equipment, indicating ongoing, localized offensive operations. TASS reports Russian fighters improved tactical position near Petrovsky, taking about 3.5 km of the LNR administrative border under fire control, reinforcing the likelihood of continued tactical advances. UAF General Staff provides updated approximate enemy losses (980 personnel), which suggests continued heavy fighting on the ground axes. Rybar's video analysis with map overlays suggests an ongoing push towards Belaya Gora, Shcherbinovka, Yablonevka, and the Seversky Donets-Donbas canal. TASS posts video showing claimed "liberation" of Novoekonomichne. TASS reports RF forces created a "fire bag" for UAF in Yuzhny quarter of Chasiv Yar. STERNENKO reports enemy activated offensive operations in Zaporizhzhia direction, near Stepnohirsk, with tactical advances. MoD Russia posts video of 20th Guards Combined Arms Army servicemen training assault tactics in LPR. Шеф Hayabusa reports RF has occupied Novoekonomichne near Pokrovsk. ASTRA reports Russia is forming a battalion of captured Ukrainian soldiers, which may be deployed to these axes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Slivochniy Kapriz posts a video of aerial footage showing a village with damaged buildings and a soldier planting a Russian flag, captioned "25.07.25 Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoye." (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Operation Z posts video of fierce fighting near Pokrovsk, showing drone footage of targets including an M113 APC, truck, and artillery piece, with explosions, indicating continued offensive. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Z комитет + карта СВО posts drone footage of destroyed urban area and claims from 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (5OMSBBr). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports advisor to DPR head, Igor Kimakovsky, claims RF forces expelled UAF from positions in Zelenyy Hay, DNR. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Воин DV posts video claiming liberation of Volnoye Pole by Vostok group and 5th Army storm units, and shows SAU "Dana" firing. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Narodnaya militsiya DNR posts video of a drone ambush on a UAF pickup truck near Novoekonomichne, supporting ground operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts video of a captured Ukrainian serviceman near Yunakivka, which will be leveraged to indicate RF ground successes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kotsnews posts video of "Fights for Zverevo. How the village was liberated," confirming RF intent to capture terrain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Starshy Edda posts video of "Fights for Zverevo. How the village was liberated," further confirming RF intent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
   • INDICATORS: Increased frequency/scale of mechanized ground assaults; higher rates of armor/IFV losses; increased tactical aviation activity/GAB launches in Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk; RF claims of further territorial advances; continued Ukrainian appeals for drone support; observed increase in small-unit probing attacks supported by FPV drones and EW.
3. Intelligence Preparation for Southern Offensive/Strikes: RF will sustain or increase ISR and ELINT collection over the Orikhiv-Robotyne salient and surrounding areas. This activity will likely precede standoff strikes against identified UAF C2, logistics, or air defense nodes within next 48-72 hours. Ground offensive less likely immediately, remains mid-term possibility. The temporary Starlink outage may lead RF to increase ISR/ELINT to assess the full impact on UAF communication and potentially identify new targets of opportunity. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected north of Zaporizhzhia city confirm continued ISR preparation for this axis. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs north of Zaporizhzhia and in central Sumy Oblast. The movement of new groups of enemy strike UAVs from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk indicates an immediate execution of deep strike operations in the southern and central sectors, likely a culmination of recent ISR. Five "mopeds" (drones) reported flying towards Dnipro from Synelnykivskyi direction. Enemy reconnaissance UAV detected in Black Sea waters near Zatoka, actively being engaged by UAF assets, confirming continued ISR in the southern maritime approach. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
   • INDICATORS: Continued high volume of RF ISR UAV sorties; detection of intensified ELINT signatures; subsequent increase in precision strikes in Orikhiv sector; continued ground operational pause in this sector. New drone threats and sightings in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
4. Enhanced Domestic Defense and Information Operations, Continued Sabotage Efforts: RF will maintain and potentially enhance AD and counter-UAS measures in its territory. Ukrainian long-range UAV attacks on RF territory will persist. RF will continue robust information campaigns to control domestic narrative, including addressing internal issues (e.g., An-24 crash, Novoshakhtinsk fire, teacher unemployment, rising gasoline prices, corruption arrests, Khimki searches, Domodedovo Prosecutor, Bryansk Capital Construction Head, Klintsy Deputy, Chelyabinsk Vice-Governor, Volgograd deputy, Interior Ministry officials, Aleksandr Bogashov, Baza editor-in-chief, Menzhinsky, MoD corruption case, new police arrests, minor organized crime groups, МВД-Медиа video controversy, veteran rehabilitation, Gusman dismissal, police arrests in Baza case, "Crocus" accomplice property seizure, perpetrators deemed sane, Crocus terrorists used drugs, Mikhail Gusman dismissed), portraying crackdowns, and implementing youth patriotism programs. RF will likely continue public disciplinary actions and apologies from servicemen. Economic pressures such as GAZ's four-day work week will be managed with domestic messaging. RF will use the Cambodia-Thailand conflict to deflect attention from Ukraine. The largest Russian metallurgical plant's profit collapse may prompt further economic management decisions. Estonia's report of EW systems moving closer to NATO indicates continued risk of EW deployments. RF will likely continue to disseminate disinformation about Ukrainian leadership and reforms. RF will continue to use internal incidents and social tensions for propaganda purposes. RF will continue cyber-related information operations. RF will continue to deny IAEA access to key ZNPP facilities. TASS will continue to report on internal Ukrainian political issues. RF will continue to exploit external geopolitical events. The temporary Starlink outage will immediately leverage the Starlink outage in their information operations, despite its rapid resolution. Colonelcassad posts photos implying Ukrainian internal dissent. TASS reports Russia will be represented at the UN General Assembly. RBK-Ukraina reports drone attacks on Rostov Oblast. Traffic over the Crimean Bridge has been suspended, which will be framed as a successful defense against Ukrainian attacks. Operations Z's video of a serviceman apologizing will be used to demonstrate internal accountability. Rybar's "ZSU on the border of Thailand" post will be leveraged to link Ukraine to regional instability. TASS reporting the UN Security Council meeting on Cambodia-Thailand will further amplify this. TASS reporting Trump's signing of a law to cut foreign aid will be used to reinforce the domestic narrative of declining Western support for Ukraine and emphasize RF's strategic success. RF has declared a "red" level drone threat for Lipetsk Oblast, indicating an active state of homeland defense. TASS reports that the organizers of the "Crocus" terrorist attack acted in the interests of Ukraine; this accusation could serve as a casus belli for a particularly severe retaliatory strike in an MDCOA scenario. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train, injuring two, providing fresh material for domestic narrative of Ukrainian attacks. Moscow Region expects fog. НгП раZVедка reports Nevinnomyssk is reflecting the most massive attack on the North Caucasus during the entire SVO, this will lead to increased RF information operations about Ukrainian aggression. TASS reports blogger Yuri Dud, declared internationally wanted, may be checked for treason, indicating a continued crackdown on internal dissent within RF. Temporary flight restrictions in 8 RF airports due to UAV threats. Operation Z promotes a new FSB series "Spetsy" portraying heroic work of FSB special forces. TASS reports new suspects may emerge in the case of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, indicating ongoing internal management. Nevinnomyssk Mayor's statement claiming 37 impacts with no losses, despite visual evidence of a strike, is an attempt to control public perception and mitigate panic. НгП раZVедка's "Our victory, stand down" in Nevinnomyssk also aims to reassure the public. TASS reports over 200 people working at An-24 crash site in Tynda, which will be framed as a positive, organized state response. RBK-Ukraina reports 45 flights delayed in Sochi airport, which could cause public frustration. Оперативны ZSU posts videos confirming drone activity and explosions in Rostov and Tambov Oblasts, which RF authorities will need to manage public sentiment around. TASS posts a photo message showing the Cabinet of Ministers discussing preferential mortgages, indicating a focus on social welfare that aims to improve public sentiment. TASS reports Mishustin stated RF is forming a closed-loop economy. TASS reports Moscow court arrested businessman Moshkovich's bank accounts. Два майора posts a photo about Starlink outage showing RF's need for its own satellite communication. TASS posts photo message showing Indian PM Modi's achievement. Басурин о главном posts #МЫПОМНИМ photo messages. ASTRA reports "18+" goods will be sold on marketplaces via biometrics, indicating new population control. TASS reports a Boeing S7 flight to Sochi is returning to Novosibirsk airport, providing additional material for RF to frame Ukrainian attacks as disruptive to civilian life. RF will leverage the Soyuz-2.1b launch for domestic messaging on technological prowess. ASTRA reports Russia is forming a battalion of captured Ukrainian soldiers, which will be framed for domestic consumption as a success of prisoner re-education or a new military capability. TASS reports a man detained in Cherepovets who sold data on 27,000+ Russian citizens to Ukrainian call centers, serving as a domestic propaganda piece on internal security. FSB reports detention of co-conspirators of Ukrainian call centers in 4 regions, reinforcing the domestic security narrative. Alex Parker Returns posts images and claims about riots in the US, likely to deflect from internal RF issues. TASS reports UAF struck Zasyadko mine in Donetsk, which will be framed as Ukrainian aggression. Mash na Donbasse posts about the drying Starokrymske Reservoir, likely to highlight water issues under Ukrainian control or promote RF as the solution to such problems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS posts video messages claiming FSB and МВД detained co-conspirators of Ukrainian call centers in 4 RF regions, with video showing raids and confiscated items (firearms, cash, phones, credit cards), which supports internal security narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Two Majors posts the same video message regarding FSB/MVD detentions of call center co-conspirators, aiming to amplify the message. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Amur Oblast authorities will pay 1 million rubles to families of deceased residents from the An-24 crash, reinforcing state support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA posts video about the 1 million ruble payout to families of An-24 crash victims in Amur Oblast, also reinforcing the state support narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports the Cabinet of Ministers will pay 5 million rubles to families of deceased in the An-24 crash and that flight recorders have been found and will be transported to Moscow, reinforcing state responsiveness and investigation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Rosaviatsia and Rostransnadzor will initiate a check of Angara Airlines following the An-24 crash, projecting accountability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Старше Эдды posts an image suggesting commercial directors are among the highest paid professions in Russia in 2025, with an average salary of 292,370 rubles/month, likely for domestic economic reassurance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Butusov Plus posts photos suggesting a return to Stalinist cult in Russia, with children being taught that Stalin was a great strategist, indicating a long-term ideological manipulation for domestic consumption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Два майора posts an image of recruitment for contract military service in Russian Federation security agencies, for recruitment and strength projection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Basurin o glavnom posts a photo with a sledgehammer and text implying aggressive retaliation, "He who comes to us with a sword will get a sledgehammer to the head!", promoting a hardline, aggressive narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Sever.Realii reports increased sales of anti-alcoholism drugs in Russia, which could be framed as a public health issue that RF is trying to solve internally. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Kia recalling almost 80,000 Sportage crossovers in Russia due to defect, which will be framed as a company issue, not a state issue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Moscow News reports a proposal in State Duma to pay parents of schoolchildren before September 1st, showing state care for the population. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Mars ceased production of Dove and Korkunov chocolate bars in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports SF honoring An-24 crash victims. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports the flight recorders of the crashed An-24 are damaged but likely suitable for decoding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports that the Amur Oblast Governor states the An-24 crash causes could be technical malfunction or pilot error. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a blast occurred in Saratov with potential fatalities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA confirms Saratov explosion and casualty. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts video of the Saratov explosion aftermath. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports the Federation Council approved a law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPN services, and for transferring subscriber numbers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts information regarding easing of migrant exams in Russia, framed critically, indicating internal dissent. (CONFIDENCE: LOW).
   • INDICATORS: Continued drone attacks on RF territory; intensified RF information campaigns, including "humanization" of soldiers, "Satanist" allegations, and internal issue management; increased crackdowns on internal dissent; further use of diplomatic incidents to deflect attention; continued claims of RF AD success against UAVs.
   • RF Procurement of Foreign Components: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russia plans to use Austrian-made components for missiles, indicating continued efforts to circumvent sanctions and procure critical components from abroad for its military production. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
5. Continued Efforts to Shape External Narratives and Influence Allies/Adversaries: RF will maintain and potentially intensify diplomatic and information efforts to influence global perception of the conflict and the West. This includes leveraging international events (e.g., Israel-Palestine, Cambodia-Thailand conflict) to portray Western disunity or hypocrisy, and to demonstrate Russia's role as a global power. They will also continue to portray Ukraine as a terrorist state (e.g., linking them to the Crocus attack). RF will continue to attempt to exploit internal political divisions within Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
   • INDICATORS: Increased frequency of official RF statements on international crises; RF state media highlighting Western disagreements or failures; continued dissemination of narratives linking Ukraine to terrorism or destabilization; diplomatic meetings or calls by high-ranking RF officials; targeting of specific international figures or organizations in RF information operations.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

1. Massed GAB/Missile Strike Overwhelming Key Defenses Concurrent with Exploitation of Starlink Outage's Aftermath: RF could launch highly coordinated, numerous ballistic/cruise missile and GAB (including FAB-3000/UMPB-5) attack targeting multiple critical infrastructure/military nodes simultaneously across several Ukrainian oblasts, aiming to overwhelm AD in specific sectors. Given casualties in Krasnodar and high volume of drone launches, RF may demonstrate more devastating retaliation. This could include further attacks on energy infrastructure. New ballistic threat from northeast could be part of this. The confirmed deployment of P-800 Onyx missiles for ground attack increases the risk. The alleged use of chemical weapons (GUR message) could be part of this MDCOA. While the Starlink outage was largely resolved, the temporary disruption could still be exploited, or RF could perceive an ongoing window of opportunity to strike while UAF adapts. New missile threats to Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, and drone threats to Poltava Oblast, indicate immediate potential for such a massed strike. RF claims aviation strike on a UAF HQ in Kherson. RBK-Ukraina reports drone attacks on Rostov Oblast, suggesting RF might respond with escalated strikes. Traffic over the Crimean Bridge has been suspended, potentially indicating an ongoing or imminent large-scale Ukrainian strike attempt that RF may respond to in an MDCOA scenario. New reports of drone activity in Novocherkassk and Yelets suggest ongoing targeting of RF territory, which could prompt a retaliatory mass strike. The confirmed movement of new groups of strike UAVs towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, including specific targeting of Pavlohrad and Dnipro (5 drones reported), creates a critical window for such an MDCOA, potentially overwhelming AD in the central region before UAF fully recovers from the Starlink disruption or implements new protocols. RF has declared a "red" level drone threat for Lipetsk Oblast. TASS reports that the organizers of the "Crocus" terrorist attack acted in the interests of Ukraine; this accusation could serve as a casus belli for a particularly severe retaliatory strike in an MDCOA scenario. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train, injuring two, validating RF's claim of being under attack and potentially leading to a more aggressive response. Continued GAB launches on Sumy Oblast. The confirmed Ukrainian drone attacks on the Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant and Tambov Powder Plant will likely provoke a severe, possibly retaliatory, mass strike by RF targeting Ukrainian industrial or critical infrastructure. Continued GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts indicate RF maintains this capability for massed strikes. Heightened flight delays in Sochi due to drone activity signal continued RF AD efforts and potential for retaliatory strikes. Operatyvny ZSU posts videos and photos highlighting drone attacks on Rostov and Tambov Oblasts, which, if met with a massed RF strike, would escalate the current MDCOA. UAF Air Force reports ballistic missile threat from Donetsk. UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV over Zatoka, being engaged, indicating continued high-value reconnaissance preceding strikes. Operational ZSU reports explosions in occupied Donetsk, which could be part of a preparatory or ongoing strike. TASS reports UAF struck Zasyadko mine in Donetsk, which may contribute to RF justification for retaliation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts a video alleging the strike on Cherkasy was by an Iskander-K targeting an abandoned 41st Guards Tank Division infrastructure, Hotel "Vlada" (alleged UAF personnel lodging), and garage cooperatives (alleged UAV production), indicating a potential MDCOA of justifying strikes on civilian targets. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). RBK-Ukraina reports RF dropped explosives from a drone on an ambulance crew in Dniprovskyi district of Kherson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a Ukrainian UAV dropped a munition on a parking lot near the Zaporizhzhia NPP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports UAVs attacked the Tambov Powder Plant. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russia plans to use Austrian-made components for missiles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF Air Force reports KAAB incoming on Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports a blast occurred in Saratov with potential fatalities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA confirms Saratov explosion and casualty. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns posts video of the Saratov explosion aftermath. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
   • INDICATORS: Simultaneous detection of multiple missile/UAV types from various vectors; sustained waves of attacks over several hours; targeting of specific energy facilities, railway junctions, or identified UAF command posts/reserve concentrations; observed massing of ground attack aviation; confirmed use of chemical agents. Further degradation of communication networks; delayed or uncoordinated UAF AD responses. Prolonged suspension of Crimean Bridge traffic. Widespread air raid alerts and confirmed impacts in Dnipropetrovsk and surrounding oblasts. Public statements from RF leadership or state media explicitly linking large-scale strikes to "retaliation for Crocus." Prolonged and widespread flight delays/cancellations in RF airports. Confirmed damage to Tambov Powder Plant, followed by a retaliatory RF strike.
2. Decisive Breakthrough on Chasiv Yar Axis Leveraging Residual Starlink Disruption or Rapid Exploitation: RF forces could consolidate and launch a multi-battalion mechanized offensive on Chasiv Yar axis with overwhelming tactical aviation (including FAB-3000/UMPB-5) and heavy MLRS support, aiming for significant operational breakthrough that could collapse a section of the defensive line. Colonelcassad's claims of extensive advances within Chasiv Yar increase the likelihood. The "previous daily report" highlights the imminent major ground assault on Chasiv Yar by elite VDV units. While the Starlink outage was resolved, RF might attempt to exploit any lingering communication or coordination issues at the tactical level, or launch immediately if they perceive a window of opportunity before UAF fully adapts. Colonelcassad's video of a storm platoon commander detailing offensive preparations highlights the intent for aggressive ground action. UAF General Staff provides updated approximate enemy losses (980 personnel), indicating that despite heavy losses, RF is likely still committed to offensive operations on key axes. Rybar's video analysis suggests an ongoing push towards Belaya Gora, Shcherbinovka, Yablonevka, and the Seversky Donets-Donbas canal. TASS posts video showing claimed "liberation" of Novoekonomichne, demonstrating ongoing RF ground offensive capabilities. TASS reports RF forces created a "fire bag" for UAF in Yuzhny quarter of Chasiv Yar, indicating RF's specific tactical objectives in a high-risk offensive. STERNENKO reports enemy activated offensive operations in Zaporizhzhia direction, near Stepnohirsk, with tactical advances. MoD Russia posts video of 20th Guards Combined Arms Army servicemen training assault tactics in LPR. Шеф Hayabusa reports RF has occupied Novoekonomichne near Pokrovsk. ASTRA reports Russia is forming a battalion of captured Ukrainian soldiers, which may be deployed to these axes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Slivochniy Kapriz posts a video of aerial footage showing a village with damaged buildings and a soldier planting a Russian flag, captioned "25.07.25 Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoye." (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Operation Z posts video of fierce fighting near Pokrovsk, showing drone footage of targets including an M113 APC, truck, and artillery piece, with explosions, indicating continued offensive efforts for breakthrough. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Z комитет + карта СВО posts drone footage of destroyed urban area and claims from 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (5OMSBBr). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports advisor to DPR head, Igor Kimakovsky, claims RF forces expelled UAF from positions in Zelenyy Hay, DNR, indicating potential for a breakthrough. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Воин DV posts video claiming liberation of Volnoye Pole by Vostok group and 5th Army storm units, indicating potential for continued breakthroughs. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). Narodnaya militsiya DNR posts video of a drone ambush on a UAF pickup truck near Novoekonomichne, supporting ground offensive efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Kotsnews posts video of "Fights for Zverevo. How the village was liberated," confirming RF intent to achieve breakthroughs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Starshy Edda posts video of "Fights for Zverevo. How the village was liberated," further confirming RF intent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
   • INDICATORS: Massing of armor and infantry formations; pre-assault artillery/air preparation sustained for several hours; attempts to breach multiple defensive lines simultaneously; increased RF special forces activity; significant increase in RF claimed territorial gains on this axis. Reports of communication failures or delays in UAF units in the Chasiv Yar sector; reduced UAF FPV drone activity in the area.
3. Simultaneous Multi-Axis Offensive with Diversionary Attacks and Coerced Populations, Coupled with Crocus Allegations: RF could launch coordinated ground offensives on two or more axes (e.g., Chasiv Yar/Pokrovsk and renewed push in Kharkiv/Kupyansk or Southern axis) to stretch UAF reserves and prevent reinforcement, coupled with increased sabotage/terrorist activities in rear areas (e.g., Kyiv, Odesa) to force resource reallocation. This MDCOA also includes the unprecedented, confirmed tactic of sending kidnapped Ukrainian children to the front. The temporary Starlink communication disruption could have created a window that RF attempts to exploit, assuming UAF C2 is still disrupted. The direct accusation from TASS linking Ukraine to the "Crocus" attack could be used as a propaganda justification for this escalated, multi-front attack. ASTRA reports Russia forming a battalion of captured Ukrainian soldiers, which aligns with coerced populations for offensive efforts. (CONFIDENCE: LOW-MEDIUM). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russia is forming a battalion from captured Ukrainian military personnel, citing State Duma deputy Vodolatsky, which fits the "coerced populations" aspect. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports Russia is forming a battalion from captured Ukrainian military personnel, citing State Duma deputy Vodolatsky, also confirming this aspect. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
   • INDICATORS: Confirmation of sustained multi-battalion attacks on widely separated axes; increased movement of RF operational reserves; simultaneous GAB/MLRS preparatory fires on multiple fronts; increased attempted terror attacks/sabotage in major Ukrainian cities; confirmed use of forced child soldiers/human shields in combat zones; widespread and prolonged communication outages (e.g., Starlink); explicit RF public statements justifying escalated attacks based on "Crocus" connection.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Next 6-12 Hours (Until 251200Z JUL 25): High probability of continued UAV and missile threats, particularly in southern, central, and eastern regions, and application of GABs (including UMPB-5) in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy, and Kherson. Expect continued RF ground pressure and claimed advances in Chasiv Yar, Donetsk, and Kharkiv/Sumy Oblasts, with increased emphasis on mechanized assaults on Chasiv Yar/Pokrovsk axis, supported by FPV drones and small unit probes. Active AD engagements and emergency responses will continue. RF AD will remain active against Ukrainian drone attacks on its territory, potentially causing further civilian disruption/casualties, specifically in Rostov Oblast, Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, Nevinnomyssk, and Saratov. Intensified ISR/ELINT activity on Southern Axis will persist, with reconnaissance UAVs likely across multiple axes (Zaporizhzhia, Sumy). New ballistic threat from northeast is active. Cargo traffic restrictions in Kyiv will remain in effect due to heat. RF milblogger video confirms ongoing drone operations in Kherson. RF milblogger video confirms active combat and destruction in Konstantinovka direction. RF MoD summary expected. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeast direction. New enemy UAVs detected in Sumy, northern Kharkiv, and southwest of Dnipro, and now northeastern Poltava. New GAB launches expected on Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Sumy. New missile threat for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Colonelcassad's claims of advances in Chasiv Yar and Yablonovka indicate an immediate, significant ground threat. The AFU Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetropats Oblast. TASS reports the arrest of the Baza editor-in-chief and the Minister of Property for Chelyabinsk Oblast, and Menzhinsky in Chelyabinsk Oblast. "Ukrzaliznytsia" intensifying document checks at train boarding points will affect civilian travel. Colonelcassad's "Satanists in AFU" propaganda will be disseminated. UAF Air Force reports continued enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Bilopillia (Sumy), northern Chernihiv, and border of Kharkiv/Poltava. STERNENKO reports Shahed launches from 4 directions. UAF Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast from the north, currently flying south, and near Bilopillia, heading south. New groups of enemy strike UAVs reported on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, course west/southwest. RF milblogger "Operatsiya Z" claims Russian army broke into Kupyansk. Operatsiya Z posts video of paratroopers advancing on the Sumy front. Colonelcassad posts a video of representatives of military groups discussing the special military operation. STERNENKO posts a video demonstrating a drone operation. RBK-Ukraina reports a frontline community in Sumy Oblast was attacked, with one fatality. New threat of enemy strike UAVs from the northeast for Cherkasy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports new GAB launches onto Donetsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports new GAB launches onto Kharkiv Oblast from the east. New RF-claimed tactical aviation strike on an FSB base in Bryansk Oblast. New video from "Two Majors" purports to show the 155th Separate Guards Naval Infantry Brigade operating in the Sumy direction. New photo messages from ОТУ "Харків" depict military vehicles in a night setting. New video from Colonelcassad shows Putin's speech at the commissioning ceremony for the 'Knyaz Pozharsky' nuclear submarine. New FSB videos from Colonelcassad show the interrogation of a detained individual in Kherson. TASS reports two more police officers arrested in connection with the Baza Telegram channel case. RBK-Ukraina reports IAEA team was not allowed access to ZNPP training center. RBK-Ukraina and Operatyvny ZSU report Nazariy Husakov suspected in fraud case. STERNENKO confirms Husakov's suspicion. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy changed the composition of the Stavka. New WarGonzo video titled "Intelligence did not make a mistake." New photo messages from Arkhangel Spetsnaza claim "Another minor organized crime group caught." New US aid package of $330M approved. General Staff provides updated operational information as of 22:00 24.07.25. DeepState reports "all Starlinks down," which requires immediate assessment. New Shahed drones are moving towards Sumy city from the northeast. TASS reports on widespread protests in 10 Ukrainian cities. Alex Parker Returns claims RF forces have secured positions in Pok