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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-07-25 04:41:04Z
7 months ago
Previous (2025-07-25 04:10:48Z)

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 250800Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

  • Ukraine General: Nationwide threat from RF missile and UAV attacks persists. Guided Aerial Bombs (GABs), including the UMPB-5 and FAB-3000, remain a significant threat in frontline areas. A new ballistic missile threat from the northeast is active. The threat of aviation weapon use remains active in Sumy, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. The first operational use of P-800 Onyx anti-ship missiles against ground targets in Odesa is confirmed. RF tactical aviation activity observed in southeastern direction. RF launches of GABs on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts confirmed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Odesa Oblast: Confirmed destruction of a residential 9-story building and the Pryvoz market due to RF drone attacks. Civilian casualties confirmed (1 fatality, 3 injured at Pryvoz, others unknown but likely higher). Explosion on a Ukrainian dredge ship "Delta-Lotsman" in Bystre estuary resulted in 3 deaths and injuries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Two UAVs confirmed shot down. New threat of aviation weapon use in Synelnykivskyi district. New missile threat detected for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol, Kryvyi Rih, Kamyanske, Dnipro districts). Ongoing shelling of Nikopol, Myrivska, and Marhanets communities with drones and artillery. New reports indicate threat of enemy strike UAVs from the northeast in Synelnykivskyi district, extending to Pavlohrad and Samara districts. New groups of enemy strike UAVs are moving from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk. Five "mopeds" (drones) reported flying towards Dnipro from the Synelnykivskyi direction. All reported "mopeds" (drones) near Kremenchuk and Svitlovodsk are confirmed neutralized. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Axis): RF sources claim advances near Redkodub, Karpovka, Glushchenkovo, Novy Mir, and capture of Novotoretskoye. RF claims "fights began on the southern and southwestern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk." MOD Russia claims Grad MLRS used against an AFU stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. UAF (MURAMASA) continues successful engagements against RF ground probes on Kostiantynivka axis. UAF Air Force reports RF launches of GABs onto Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad claims a precision FAB strike on a bridge over the Vovcha River. UAF General Staff reports clashes near Rusyn Yar, Myrolubivka, Zatyshok, Lysivka, Popiv Yar, Myrnohrad, Zvirove, Udachne, Oleksiyivka, Novoukrayinka, Mayak, Novoekonomichne, Kotlyne, Dachne and towards Pokrovsk, Pankivka, Volodymyrivka, Sukhetske. RF milbloggers "Operatsiya Z" claim continued destruction of UAF personnel near Pokrovsk. Colonelcassad posts video of FPV drone strike near Volodymyrivka. "Two Majors" milbloggers claim a breakthrough to Aleksandro-Kalinovo on the Konstantinovka direction. 2 killed, 14 injured from Russian shelling in Konstantinovka. Donetsk Oblast is expanding forced evacuation. "Operatsiya Z" claims Novoekonomichne liberated and approaching Dmytrov (Mirnohrad). TASS claims "Center" group liberated Novoekonomichne and Zverevo. Colonelcassad claims liberation of Shevchenko and Pivdenny micro-districts in Chasiv Yar by 98th VDV, and envelopment of Zemlianky micro-district. Colonelcassad now claims liberation of Yablonovka on the Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad posts video of alleged destruction of UAF UAV control point in Poltavka. Kotsnews reports RF advances threaten T0406 road to Pokrovsk and Mirnograd garrisons. Butusov Plus posts video showing Mirnohrad in ruins. Z комитет + карта СВО map depicts Krasnoarmeyskoye direction with claimed RF control and fortifications. RF milblogger "Slivochniy Kapriz" shows alleged satellite imagery of "Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoye" areas. Alex Parker Returns claims RF forces have secured positions in Pokrovsk. Threat of enemy strike UAVs detected in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad video shows drone footage with thermal imaging, documenting strikes on buildings, vehicles (potential armored personnel carriers and trucks), a communication tower, and targets identified as 'ПВД', 'ТАнк', 'АВТО', 'ПАТЧ-АНТЕННА', 'СИСТЕМА СВЯЗИ', 'СПУТНИКОВАЯ АНТЕННА', 'БАБА-ЯГА', with 'MARDER' designation for a vehicle. TASS reports that the liberation of Novoekonomichne by Russian fighters allows them to put pressure on the AFU grouping near Krasnyi Lyman in DNR and "seriously complicate" enemy logistics. RF Army reports cleaning up two settlements near Krasnoarmeysk in DNR. TASS reports Russian fighters improved tactical position near Petrovsky, taking about 3.5 km of the LNR administrative border under fire control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for intensified fighting, UAF successful engagements, GAB use, RF drone strikes, civilian casualties, forced evacuation, Poltavka claim, MoD/Kotsnews/Butusov claims and implications, Z комитет map, UAV threat, Novoekonomichne/Krasnyi Lyman logistics claim, Marochko claim, Petrovsky claim; MEDIUM for claims of control, bridge strike claim, satellite imagery, Alex Parker Returns claim, Colonelcassad video – visual assessment of content).
    • Cherkasy Oblast: Seven individuals, including a child, injured from RF missile attack, with casualties rising to 12. Damage to a cemetery. New threat of enemy strike UAVs from the northeast for Cherkasy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Kharkiv Oblast: RF sources claim "North" group continued creating a "security strip." First operational use of a FAB-3000 M-54 UMPK against a Ukrainian strongpoint in Lyptsi. Positional fighting continues in Vovchansk. Kharkiv Oblast Administration reports 9 settlements struck. RF forces claimed "infiltrated UAF defenses near Melovoe, crossed the Verkhnya Dvurechnaya river, and secured its western bank." UAF Air Force reports new GAB launches onto Kharkiv Oblast. KAAB hit a multi-story building in Kharkiv, causing 41 injured (including 6 children). ASTRA and Operatyvny ZSU post videos of KAB hits on a multi-story residential building. OTU "Kharkiv" reports on successful aero reconnaissance strikes destroying enemy vehicles and positions. UAF General Staff reports clashes near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Dvorichna and towards Petro-Ivanivka. Oleg Syniehubov posts photos of returned POWs. New RBK-Ukraina reports 39 injured, 6 children. RF drone attack on Kharkiv confirmed. Fighterbomber posts video and photo implying three FAB-500 strikes on the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (ГУ МВД). ОТУ "Харків" posts new drone footage showing "Molniya" strike UAVs destroying Russian observation posts and a UAZ 'Bukhanka'. Enemy strike UAVs detected on the eastern outskirts of Kharkiv Oblast, course west. Likely reconnaissance UAVs on the western outskirts of Kharkiv, possible AD engagement. UAV in Balakliya area, course southwest. TASS reports RF forces inflicted strikes on a UAV control point, manpower, and armored vehicles of UAF in Kharkiv Oblast using "Grad" MLRS. UAF Air Force confirms GAB launches on Kharkiv from the northeast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 48-year-old woman injured in Orikhivska Hromada. RF Milbloggers claim RF forces "liberated Kamyanske" and are "storming Plavni, advancing further." Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration confirms continued RF strikes on a university sports hall. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV heading towards Zaporizhzhia from the south. UAF General Staff reports airstrikes at Mala Tokmachka, Prymorske, Malokaterynivka, Mahdalynivka. Clashes reported near Mala Tokmachka (Orikhiv direction) and Bilohirya (Huliaippole direction). TASS reports RF forces advancing north from Kamyanske towards Stepnohirsk. New RF milblogger video shows reconnaissance and destruction of AFU vehicles in Zatyshye. Z Committee + SVO Map milbloggers post a tactical map of Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating claimed advances towards Plavni. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports defenders destroy over 50 Russian reconnaissance drones weekly. The AFU Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetropats Oblasts. Two Majors post a video from Zaporizhzhia front, showing drone footage of explosions on targets with a Ukrainian flag overlay and Russian insignia. Colonelcassad posts new map claiming RF advances near Kamyanske and Plavni. RF milblogger "Operatsiya Z" posted drone footage showing strikes on buildings and structures in a populated area. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected north of Zaporizhzhia city, suggesting continued ISR. New groups of enemy strike UAVs are moving through Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports the air raid alert has been cleared. UAF Air Force confirms GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Kryvyi Rih: Situation assessed as controlled. Oleksandr Vilkul shares photos from an educational facility and road construction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Mykolaiv Oblast: RBK-Ukraina reports "Russians attacked Mykolaiv with drones overnight." Significant fires. Dnevnik Desantnika claims RF forces "destroyed a Bayraktar UAV production facility at the Equator factory." SBU prevented a dual terrorist act near the regional TCC. RBK-Ukraina reports a Russian drone attacked a Norwegian humanitarian organization's base. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for drone attacks/impact, SBU operation, humanitarian base attack; LOW for claimed target destruction).
    • Sumy Oblast: UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) near Bilopillia and a reconnaissance UAV near Lebedyn, both heading southeast. UAF Air Force reports RF launches of GABs onto Sumy Oblast. Reconnaissance UAVs reported on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. UAF General Staff reports repelled 12 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky direction. Colonelcassad publishes drone footage showing strikes. Vooin DV posts video of an FPV drone strike on a Ukrainian Forces pickup truck. Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 Shahed drones flying towards Sumy. UAF Air Force reports new GAB launches onto Sumy Oblast. Operatyvny ZSU posts images of "Sumy attackers." STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast (Khotin), heading southwest. UAF Air Force reports an enemy UAV (Shahed) on the northern outskirts of Shostka. UAF Air Force reports threat of enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast from the north, currently flying south. UAF Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs near Bilopillia, heading south. New groups of enemy strike UAVs reported on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, course west/southwest. RBK-Ukraina reports a frontline community in Sumy Oblast was attacked, with one fatality near Znob-Novhorodske. "Two Majors" purports to show the 155th Separate Guards Naval Infantry Brigade operating in the Sumy direction. UAF Air Force reports new Shahed drones moving towards Sumy city from the northeast. UAF Air Force reports "Konotop! To shelter!" and fast-moving targets in Sumy region heading west. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected in southern Sumy Oblast. НгП раZVедка reports "Good news from Sumy direction." Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages and text regarding a "Sumy columbarium" and "Closing of America" in Ukraine, likely propaganda. UAF Air Force reports RF launches of GABs onto Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) over Sumy city. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Kherson Oblast: RF claims aviation strike on a UAF HQ in Kherson. GAB launch on Kherson from Temporarily Occupied Territory (TOT). STERNENKO also reports strikes on Kherson. Reconnaissance UAVs reported on Kherson Oblast. UAF General Staff reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Lvove and repelled 9 Russian army assaults. Vooin DV posts video claiming a substation explosion in Kherson. Voenkor Kotenok posts video implying capture of a "Zhdun" (collaborator/spotter). New RF milblogger video shows aerial view of an urban environment labeled "Kherson. Works group ROY," showing an explosion. Basurin o glavnom posts video of FSB detention and interrogation of a man in Krasnodar Krai for alleged collaboration and photography of military facilities, as well as a video of the detention of a "spotter" in Kherson Oblast. New videos from Colonelcassad captioned "FSB of Russia in Kherson region stopped illegal activities of a Russian citizen involved in state treason" show an individual admitting to photographing government facilities and checkpoints in Kherson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for GAB use and strikes, recon UAV activity, FSB/RF claims of capturing a spotter, new video confirmation of drone activity/strikes; MEDIUM for substation explosion claim – awaiting UAF confirmation).
    • Other Eastern Axes: UAF General Staff reports clashes near Stepova Novoselivka, Borivska Andriyivka, Holubivka, Zahryzove, Novoplatonivka (Kupyansk direction); Hrekivka, Zelenyy Hay, Serednye, Shandryholove, Dronivka, Novyy Mir, Karpivka, Kolodyazi, Shypylivka and towards Druzhelubivka, Serebryanka (Lyman direction); Hryhorivka (Siversk direction); Chasiv Yar, Stupochky and Bila Hora (Kramatorsk direction); Toretsk (Toretsk direction); Zaporizhzhya, Zirka, Piddubne, Oleksandrohrad, Shevchenko, Maliyivka, Temyrivka, Voskresenka and Vilne Pole (Novopavlivka direction). New RF milblogger photo from Kupyansk direction near Radkovka. STERNENKO reports Sky Hunters of the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade are stopping new Russian assaults on the Kupyansk direction. Z комитет + SVO Map milbloggers post a tactical map of Novopavlovskoe direction showing occupied territories. UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction. Colonelcassad posts satellite imagery of UAF engineering structures in Kramatorsk district, construction began June 2025. Rybar provides tactical maps of the Kupyansk direction. Voenkor Kotenok posts a map of Pokrovskoye (Krasnoarmeyskoye) direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Poltava Oblast: RBK-Ukraina reports an enemy drone fell in Poltava Oblast due to air defense work. UAF Air Force reports a reconnaissance UAV on the border of Kharkiv and Poltava Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports threat of enemy strike UAVs from the northeast. UAF Air Force warns of threat to Kremenchuk and Svitlovodsk from drones. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 3 Shahed drones over Kremenchuk/Svitlovodsk and 1 from Cherkasy towards Kremenchuk. New high-speed target detected on the northeastern part of Poltava region towards Kremenchuk. Explosions reported in Kremenchuk area. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports drones near Kremenchuk are "minus." RF milblogger "НгП раZVедка" reports "Good news from Poltava Oblast," which may indicate successful RF strike activity or UAF setbacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russia:
    • Krasnodar Krai (Sochi/Kuban): Multiple videos show large explosions and fires near a "Lukoil-Yugnefteprodukt Sochinskaya oil depot." RF MoD claims 39 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down. Civilian reports indicate flight disruptions. TASS and ASTRA confirm casualties (2 dead, 13 injured). Peskov states these attacks are a "continuation of Kyiv's strikes on civilian objects." Krasnodar Krai Operative Headquarters reports drone attack. TASS reports that UAV debris, falling on the territory of a railway station, damaged a passenger train car, injuring two people. RBK-Ukraina reports 45 flights delayed in Sochi airport, up from 25 across 8 airports previously reported. New information: ASTRA reports Timashevsk railway station in Krasnodar Krai without power after UAV attack, 2 train passengers injured (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Kursk Oblast: Russian official Khinshtein signed a resolution on payments to residents forced to leave homes due to property damage. STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. A woman was killed by a drone attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Luhansk (Kremennaya): TASS reports a "firefight" by UAF in Kremennaya. MoD Russia posts video of military engineers ensuring transport accessibility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for infrastructure repair, LOW for UAF aggressive action).
    • Rostov Oblast (Novocherkassk/Taganrog Area): RBK-Ukraina reports at least 7 explosions in the suburbs of Taganrog and Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast, with Russians complaining of unknown drone attacks and claiming AD work. New reports from ASTRA confirm residents of Novocherkassk are again reporting a large number of drones and explosions. Traffic over the Crimean Bridge has been temporarily suspended. Operatyvny ZSU posts videos confirming drone activity and explosions in Rostov Oblast. New information: Operatyvny ZSU reports railway station building in Peschanokopskoye, Rostov Oblast, damaged by UAV strike (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Amur Oblast: A civilian An-24 passenger plane with 43 passengers and 6 crew members went missing, crash site found 16km from Tynda, fuselage burning, no survivors. TASS reports technical malfunction and human factor as versions, then later states the An-24 was technically sound. Five railway workers among the dead. TASS reports 13 residents of Khabarovsk Krai died in the crash. Photo messages from "Полиция Хабаровского края" showing police vehicles, likely related to the ongoing investigation or response to the An-24 crash aftermath. Amur Oblast Governor Vasily Orlov has flown to Tynda with a government commission to assess the situation. TASS reports over 200 people working at An-24 crash site in Tynda. Police of Khabarovsk Krai posts photo messages, likely related to the An-24 crash investigation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Rostov Oblast (Novoshakhtinsk): Operatyvny ZSU posts video of a burning shopping center. A firefighter died, and a woman's body was found in the fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Nevinnomyssk (Stavropol Krai, North Caucasus): НгП раZVедка reports Nevinnomyssk is reflecting the most massive attack on the North Caucasus during the entire SVO. ASTRA confirms explosions in Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol Krai. RBK-Ukraina video shows a distant explosion. НгП раZVедка praises Nevinnomyssk AD. RBK-Ukraina reports the mayor of Nevinnomyssk claims 37 drone impacts with no losses or damage. ASTRA posts video showing alleged attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot industrial plant in Stavropol Krai, with sound of explosions and visual of bright flashes and smoke. RBK-Ukraina posts video showing alleged attack on a chemical plant in Stavropol Krai, also with fire/explosions and smoke visible. ASTRA posts video of Nevinnomyssk mayor claiming "37 hits, no losses, no destruction in the city, the factory workers are great." TASS reports 37 UAVs shot down over Nevinnomyssk, no casualties. New information: STERNENKO posts video of drone attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant, mayor claims "over 20 hits" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for claimed attack and visual evidence of explosions/fire, MEDIUM for number of impacts without damage as claimed by mayor; HIGH for industrial target).
    • Internal RF Issues: RF Investigation Committee reports completion of an investigation into the supply of low-quality dry rations. FSB detained 9 Russians in 8 regions for calling for military assassinations. A police officer detained in Kherson Oblast for transmitting RF troop data to Ukrainian special services. Former Tambov Oblast Governor Maxim Egorov detained for bribery. Vice-Governor of Bryansk Oblast is facing arrest for abuse of power in defensive line construction. TASS reports a decision is being prepared to ban gasoline exports for 1-2 months from August 1st. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki reports court denied compensation to family of deceased soldier sent to front with injury. TASS reports investigators seeking arrest of three Interior Ministry employees accused of receiving bribes from Baza Telegram channel journalists and exceeding official authority. TASS confirms arrest of Baza editor-in-chief Gleb Trifonov. TASS reports the Moscow court arrested Aleksandr Bogashov and Eldar Belousov (Minister of Property of Chelyabinsk Oblast), and Menzhinsky (acting Head of Affairs of the Governor and Government of Chelyabinsk Oblast) on charges of abuse of power. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki reports a military police officer beat an elderly serviceman. TASS reports GAZ will transition to a four-day work week in August due to a "critical fall in the car market." TASS reports the apartment and car of an accomplice in the "Crocus" terrorist attack have been seized. Colonelcassad claims the Russian Investigative Committee has identified over 3,500 foreign mercenaries from 70 countries fighting for Ukraine. TASS reports Russian Railways (RZD) has redirected cargo traffic to alternative routes after incidents in Rostov Oblast. TASS reports that the perpetrators of the Crocus terrorist attack have been recognized as sane. RF officials in Lipetsk Oblast have declared a "red" level drone attack threat. TASS reports Bastrykin congratulated investigation authorities on their professional holiday. ASTRA reports "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) implemented in North Ossetia and other SKFO regions due to UAV threat, citing Menyaylo. TASS reports blogger Yuri Dud, declared internationally wanted, may be checked for treason. Operation Z reports FSB has a new series "Spetsy" portraying heroic work of FSB special forces. TASS reports new suspects may emerge in the case of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, accused of abuse of power. TASS reports that the Cabinet of Ministers is considering differentiating the preferential mortgage rate. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Tambov Oblast: Operatyvny ZSU posts videos of "cotton" (explosions/fires) in the area of the Tambov Powder Plant after today's UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Airports: TASS reports flight restrictions at Vladikavkaz, Grozny, Magas, Mineralnye Vody, Nalchik, Stavropol, Sochi, and Tambov airports have been lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Moscow Oblast: Moscow Region expects fog with visibility 100-500 meters. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Bryansk Oblast: New information: AV БогомаZ reports 25 enemy UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Cambodia-Thailand Border: Operation Z reports "fierce clashes." TASS confirms MLRS strikes by Cambodian forces in Surin province, Thailand, and Thailand responded with an airstrike. Alex Parker Returns reports 11 civilians killed. RBK-Ukraina reports Cambodia has called on Thailand to cease hostilities. Alex Parker Returns posts video claiming Cambodia is actively using Czech RM-70 Vampir MLRS against Thailand. TASS reports the UN Security Council will hold a meeting on July 25 regarding the escalation between Cambodia and Thailand. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Cyprus: TASS reports uncontained wildfires and two deaths. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Kazakhstan (Aqtobe): ASTRA reports on an Azerbaijani publication identifying three military personnel allegedly involved in downing an AZAL plane near Aktau. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Lithuania: Vooin DV reports Lithuanian Armed Forces Commander stated the country has prepared infrastructure for additional US and NATO troops. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Red Sea: Colonelcassad reports UKMTO received a distress signal regarding a vessel seizure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Syria: Rybar notes a "request from Damascus." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Black Sea Region: Rybar reports a "massive UAV raid." Arkhangel Spetsnaza refers to "resumption of attacks in the Black Sea." Putin states that plans to create modern naval forces will be fully implemented. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Kyiv: SBU prevented a terrorist attack in a cafe in central Kyiv, apprehending a female suspect. Air raid alert announced and cleared. Israeli early warning system for air threats became operational last night. KMVA reports a meeting with International Monetary Fund representatives. Protests under the Franko Theater against law №12414 regarding NABU continue for a third day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Estonia: RBK-Ukraina reports Estonia is sounding the alarm about Russia moving EW systems closer to NATO. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • New Tactical Development - Lancet Intercept: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet loitering munition. Два майора posts a video analyzing Ukrainian claims. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - visually plausible but requires independent verification).
  • New RF Naval Commissioning: MoD Russia posts video of Putin participating in a ceremony for raising the naval ensign on the 'Knyaz Pozharsky' nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF Information Operation - "Satanists in AFU": Colonelcassad posts video and multiple photos, including ritualistic items and a pentagram tapestry, with the caption "Satanists in the AFU. Nothing new." Операция Z disseminates "Военкоры Русской Весны" content claiming Russia banned "Satanist-Nazis" with accompanying images and videos of occult-like objects. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for the propaganda attempt, LOW - for factual basis).
  • RF Information Operation - "Chemical Weapon Use": Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video of GUR emblem with text overlays "NOW I WILL POISON WITH GAS" and "The occupiers continue to use chemical weapons." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for the GUR message, LOW for independent verification).
  • New US Aid Package to Ukraine: RBK-Ukraina and Operatyvny ZSU report US approval of a new military package for Ukraine worth $330 million, including air defense (PPO) and self-propelled artillery units (SAU). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports the US approval. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Starlink Outage: Operatyvny ZSU reports that Elon Musk stated Starlink operations will be restored soon. Confirmed Starlink outage affecting communication along the entire front line. Operation Z reports the global Starlink outage was largely resolved within 2.5 hours and was related to software issues, according to SpaceX VP Michael Nichols. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Israel-Palestine Recognition: Israel condemns France's decision to recognize Palestine as a state, viewing it as "a reward for terror" and a threat to its existence, according to Netanyahu. RBK-Ukraina reports Rubio did not support Macron regarding his plans to recognize Palestine as a state. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ukraine Internal Political/Security: RBK-Ukraina reports that Yaroslav Rushchyshyn, a People's Deputy from Lviv, died in a car accident. RBK-Ukraina photo messages show reactions from "Holos" faction deputies. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos showing public protests against the NABU/SAP reform bill. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video of President Zelenskyy stating that everyone with access to state secrets, including in NABU, SAP, DBR, and National Police, must undergo lie detector tests. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russia Internal Security: Igor Artamonov (presumably an official) issues a warning about a UAV attack threat in Yelets and Yelets district. TASS reports that a "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) has been introduced in North Ossetia and other regions of the North Caucasus Federal District. TASS reports temporary flight restrictions introduced in airports of Vladikavkaz, Grozny, Magas, Mineralnye Vody, Nalchik, Stavropol, Sochi, and Tambov. TASS reports Moscow court arrested businessman Moshkovich's bank accounts (approx. 3 billion rubles). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Iran Nuclear Program: WSJ reports Iran decided to resume cooperation with IAEA on its nuclear program. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • US Foreign Aid: RBK-Ukraina reports Trump signed a law canceling $9 billion in foreign aid and public broadcasting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Armenia Internal Politics: TASS reports Armenian Union President Ara Abrahamyan states Pashinyan's call to seize Catholicos Garegin II's residence devalues the Armenian Apostolic Church and is a strategic mistake. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Operational Summary (RF): Два майора posts a morning summary for 25 July 2025. Рыбарь posts a chronicle of the Special Military Operation for 24 July. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

  • RF (Amur Oblast): Taiga and mountainous terrain complicate search efforts for An-24 crash. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF (Volgograd Oblast): Hurricane downed 8 high-voltage power line poles, leaving parts of settlements without electricity and water. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF (Moscow/Moscow Oblast): "Tropical rains" have reached Moscow, with severe flooding impacting urban infrastructure. Moscow region expects fog with visibility 100-500 meters. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Cyprus: Significant wildfires raging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Kyiv: Heat has led to cargo transport restrictions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • General: Widespread reports confirm a global Starlink outage affecting communication along the entire front line in Ukraine. SpaceX has confirmed a service outage. Recent updates indicate the Starlink outage was software-related and largely resolved within 2.5 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

  • UAF: Air defense (AD) remains on high alert nationwide, actively engaging and responding to missile and UAV threats (2 UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk, 90 of 103 RF UAVs downed overnight, plus 1 cruise missile). Emergency services are actively responding to significant civilian infrastructure damage and casualties. UAF General Staff provides updated RF loss figures and situational reports (172 combat engagements). Ukrainian units continue fundraising for equipment. Ukrainian forces (MURAMASA, STERNENKO) continue successful drone strikes. Coordination Staff for POWs confirmed a successful prisoner exchange. Zelenskiy / Official reports Russia launched 103 attack drones and 4 missiles overnight. DSHV confirm return of paratroopers. RBK-Ukraina reports Ukraine is scaling up production of explosives. General Staff announces "Ballistics" (armor/equipment manufacturer) as a new partner in "Army+" program. General Prosecutor's Office reports detention of a deserting serviceman for attempted robbery. Oleg Syniehubov posts photos of returned POWs. President Zelenskyy approved a draft law strengthening law enforcement, anti-corruption bodies, and protecting them from Russian influence. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts drone footage demonstrating weekly destruction of over 50 Russian reconnaissance drones. STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF (SSO A) engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a new ballistic missile threat from the northeast. Butusov Plus posts videos from SBU's "A" Special Operations Center, claiming over 2100 Russian soldiers eliminated in less than a month through industrial-scale drone operations. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukraїni post video of drone strikes by 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade. ОТУ "Харків" posts new drone footage showing "Molniya" strike UAVs destroying Russian observation posts and a UAZ 'Bukhanka'. "Ukrzaliznytsia" is strengthening document control during train boarding. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that German HENSOLDT will produce TRML-4D and SPEXER 2000 radars for Ukraine for €340 million. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy changed the composition of the Stavka of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. New US aid package for $330M approved, including AD and SAU. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video and confirms localization of German Vector drone production in Ukraine. The global Starlink outage will significantly impact UAF communication and drone operations. Operatyvny ZSU posts a video of a fighter jet performing maneuvers, with a watermark 'AIR_FIGHTER'. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs north of Zaporizhzhia and in central Sumy Oblast, stating that assets are engaged to shoot them down. The Starlink outage has been largely resolved. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports that all "mopeds" (drones) detected in Poltava Oblast near Kremenchuk and Svitlovodsk are confirmed neutralized. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) over Sumy city. UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southeastern direction. UAF Air Force confirms GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts. New information: Serhiy Lysak reports 7 enemy drones liquidated over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF General Staff provides updated approximate enemy losses (980 personnel, 2 AD systems) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU confirms 980 personnel and 2 AD systems destroyed (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RFU: Continues deep strike operations targeting Ukrainian territory with UAVs and missiles/GABs. Aggressively promoting claimed battlefield successes. MOD Russia claims Grad MLRS use near Krasnoarmeysk. RF AD actively engaged in defending its territory, claiming 39 UAVs downed. Conducting prisoner exchanges and information operations. MOD Russia posted video of a naval exercise ("Ilyusky Shtorm") with missile launches. Putin and Mirziyoyev expressed satisfaction with strategic partnership. MOD Russia claims strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities powering the military-industrial complex (MIC). Gleb Nikitin (Nizhny Novgorod Governor) posts photos and video of substantial humanitarian aid deliveries to RF forces, including Mavics, FPV drones, optical sights, vehicles, and a tracked robotic platform "Molot". TASS reports Putin stated plans to create modern naval forces will be fully implemented. Colonelcassad posts video of a FPV drone strike by the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade against a Ukrainian forces pickup truck in the South Donetsk direction. Kotsnews posts a video titled "Kill 'Baba Yaga'," showing drone footage. TASS reports Putin is visiting Severodvinsk. "Two Majors" posts a video of an FPV anti-air drone called "Rocket." Военкор Котенок posts a video of an FPV drone ambush on a Ukrainian Forces pickup truck. Операция Z posts video showing aerial footage of military operations near Dmytrov (Mirnohrad). Colonelcassad claims liberation of Shevchenko and Pivdenny micro-districts in Chasiv Yar by 98th VDV, and envelopment of Zemlianky micro-districts, and liberation of Yablonovka on the Konstantinovka direction. Z комитет + карта СВО posts a tactical map of Novopavlovskoe direction. Colonelcassad posts an animated map showing alleged Russian missile and drone strikes. MoD Russia posts video of Putin raising the naval ensign on the 'Knyaz Pozharsky' nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine. Basurin o glavnom posts video showing a BM-21 Grad MLRS in action, reconnaissance drone use, and mine clearance. Kadyrov_95 posts video of volunteers departing Grozny airport for the front. Russian milbloggers are confirming the global Starlink outage. TASS reports RF forces inflicted an airstrike on a UAF HQ in Kherson. RBK-Ukraina reports at least 7 explosions in the suburbs of Taganrog and Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast. New reports from ASTRA indicate residents of Novocherkassk are again reporting a large number of drones and explosions. Igor Artamonov warns of a UAV attack threat in Yelets and Yelets district. RF has declared a "red" level drone threat for Lipetsk Oblast. ASTRA reports "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) implemented in North Ossetia and other SKFO regions due to UAV threat, citing Menyaylo. Krasnodar Krai Operative Headquarters reports drone attack. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train, injuring two. НгП раZVедка reports Nevinnomyssk is reflecting the most massive attack on the North Caucasus during the entire SVO. Temporary flight restrictions in 8 RF airports. This indicates a perceived success in AD and continued high state of alert in RF border regions. НгП раZVедка praises Nevinnomyssk AD. НгП раZVедка claims "Our victory" and "stand down" in Nevinnomyssk, implying successful AD. TASS reports new suspects may emerge in the case of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, accused of abuse of power. ASTRA posts video showing alleged attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot industrial plant. RBK-Ukraina posts video showing alleged attack on a chemical plant in Stavropol Krai. RBK-Ukraina reports 45 flights delayed in Sochi airport. Colonelcassad posts videos showing strikes on enemy manpower and equipment by the 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade and the 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Division of the 5th Army Group "Vostok". Operatyvny ZSU posts videos confirming drone activity and explosions in Rostov Oblast. Colonelcassad posts videos showing FPV drone as RPG carrier. Colonelcassad posts videos showing FPV drone operators from 5th Separate Guards Tank Brigade ("Vostok" group) hitting enemy logistics in South-Donetsk direction. Igor Artamonov reports "yellow level" drone threat lifted. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video titled "Good drones didn't let Russia sleep: a series of explosions occurred in Stavropol Krai, Tambov, and Rostov Oblasts." New information: MOD Russia claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA confirms MOD Russia's claim of 105 UAVs shot down (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). AV БогомаZ reports 25 enemy UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

  • Capabilities:
    • Enhanced Deep Strike Capacity (UAV/Missile/GAB): Continued widespread and damaging UAV/missile attacks. Confirmed operational use of the FAB-3000 M-54 UMPK and UMPB-5. Use of shrapnel munitions in Cherkasy. GABs confirmed on Donetsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Kherson. RF claims of precision FAB strike on a bridge in Donetsk. MOD Russia claims high-precision strikes on energy objects feeding Ukraine's MIC and on UAV assembly and storage facilities. New RF milblogger video from Kherson shows active drone operations. MoD Russia video shows Giatsint-S artillery strikes. Narodnaya militsiya DNR posts video claiming destruction of a UAF UAV control point. Vooin DV video of FPV drone strike on a Ukrainian Forces pickup truck confirms FPV drone effectiveness. Colonelcassad's reference to UMPB D-30SN Missile System implies development or deployment of new guided munitions systems. New ballistic missile threat from the northeast. New threat of aviation weapon use in Synelnykivskyi district. Kharkiv will remain a primary target. Fighterbomber's video shows an explosion hitting a large urban building. Fighterbomber's photo message claiming three FAB-500 strikes on the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs indicates precision targeting of administrative buildings. The AFU Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetropats Oblast. The confirmed use of P-800 Onyx anti-ship missiles against ground targets in Odesa marks a significant new capability and threat to coastal infrastructure. New high-speed missile detected in Chernihiv Oblast. RF claims aviation strike on a UAF HQ in Kherson. RBK-Ukraina reports drone attacks on Rostov Oblast. Traffic over the Crimean Bridge has been suspended. New reports from ASTRA indicate residents of Novocherkassk are again reporting a large number of drones and explosions. Igor Artamonov warns of a UAV attack threat in Yelets and Yelets district. New groups of enemy strike UAVs are moving through Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk. Five "mopeds" (drones) reported flying towards Dnipro from the Synelnykivskyi direction. RF declared "red" level drone threat for Lipetsk Oblast. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train, injuring two, which will be leveraged for propaganda. Continued GAB launches on Sumy Oblast. НгП раZVедка reports Nevinnomyssk is reflecting the most massive attack on the North Caucasus during the entire SVO, indicating RF perception of escalated Ukrainian drone capabilities. ASTRA confirms explosions in Nevinnomyssk. Temporary flight restrictions in 8 RF airports due to UAV threats. TASS reports "Grad" MLRS strikes on a UAF UAV control point, manpower, and armored vehicles of UAF in Kharkiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RF launches of GABs onto Sumy Oblast. ASTRA and RBK-Ukraina videos show significant fire/explosion at Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant, confirming deep strike capability against industrial targets. UAF Air Force confirms GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts. Operatyvny ZSU posts videos confirming drone activity and explosions in Tambov Oblast, specifically at the Tambov Powder Plant, indicating continued deep strike capability against industrial targets. Colonelcassad posts videos showing FPV drone as RPG carrier. Colonelcassad posts videos showing FPV drone operators from 5th Separate Guards Tank Brigade ("Vostok" group) hitting enemy logistics in South-Donetsk direction. New information: ASTRA reports Timashevsk railway station in Krasnodar Krai without power after UAV attack, 2 train passengers injured, confirming successful deep strike against infrastructure and civilian impact (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports railway station building in Peschanokopskoye, Rostov Oblast, damaged by UAV strike, confirming deep strike against infrastructure (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO posts video of drone attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant, confirming continued deep strike against industrial targets (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Escalated Offensive Operations (Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Axes): Continued large, coordinated company-sized mechanized assaults on Pokrovsk axis. Claimed river crossing in Kharkiv. Claims of advances in Zaporizhzhia, and northward towards Stepnohirsk. Colonelcassad reports active offensive and envelopment on Kostiantynivka direction. "Operatsiya Z" and Colonelcassad continue to publish drone footage. New RF milblogger video from Konstantinovka direction confirms significant destruction and ongoing combat. RF milblogger video shows destruction of AFU vehicles near Zatyshye. "Two Majors" milbloggers claim a breakthrough to Aleksandro-Kalinovo. Операция Z claims liberation of Novoekonomichne and approach to Dmytrov (Mirnohrad). TASS claims "Center" group liberated Novoekonomichne and Zverevo. Colonelcassad claims liberation of Shevchenko and Pivdenny micro-districts in Chasiv Yar by 98th VDV, and envelopment of Zemlianky micro-districts, and liberation of Yablonovka on the Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad posts photo and video claiming liberation of Novoekonomichne by 51st Guards Combined Arms Army. Z комитет + карта СВО posts a tactical map of Novopavlovskoe direction. Alex Parker Returns claims RF forces have secured positions in Pokrovsk. Rybar posts their daily operational summary with maps. RF milblogger "Operatsiya Z" posts drone footage implying continued offensive operations on the Zaporizhzhia front. НгП раZVедка reports "Good news from Sumy direction," potentially indicating tactical gains. TASS reports that the liberation of Novoekonomichne allows RF to put pressure on AFU near Krasnyi Lyman and "seriously complicate" enemy logistics. RF Army reports cleaning up two settlements near Krasnoarmeysk in DNR. Colonelcassad's video of a storm platoon commander emphasizes tactical preparation for assaulting fortified positions. Colonelcassad posts videos showing strikes on enemy manpower and equipment by the 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade and the 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Division of the 5th Army Group "Vostok". TASS reports Russian fighters improved tactical position near Petrovsky, taking about 3.5 km of the LNR administrative border under fire control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Persistent Offensive Pressure (Kharkiv/Sumy): Claimed continued creation of a "security strip" and significant UAF losses. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeast direction. UAF Air Force reports repeated launches of GABs onto Donetsk Oblast. Operatyvny ZSU and Colonelcassad post imagery suggesting active RF ground operations in Sumy Oblast. STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF (SSO A) engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. Oleg Syniehubov reports a new RF drone attack on Kharkiv. "Operatsiya Z" claims Russian army broke into Kupyansk. Операция Z posts video of Russian paratroopers advancing on the Sumy front. "Two Majors" purports to show the 155th Separate Guards Naval Infantry Brigade operating in the Sumy direction. New WarGonzo video is FPV drone footage over a wooded area with Russian and Ukrainian flags. New RF milblogger photo from "Slivochniy Kapriz" shows a map of Kupyansk direction. TASS reports RF forces inflicted strikes on a UAV control point, manpower, and armored vehicles of UAF in Kharkiv Oblast using "Grad" MLRS. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) over Sumy city. UAF Air Force confirms GAB launches on Kharkiv from the northeast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for GAB launches; MEDIUM for claimed advances/losses).
    • Intensified ISR/EW (Southern Axis): Surge in Orlan-10/30 and ZALA UAV sorties, coupled with intensified ELINT collection. Reconnaissance UAVs observed on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kherson oblast borders. Colonelcassad confirms artillery and drone operators of 35th Army are active in Zaporizhzhia. RBK-Ukraina reports Estonia is sounding the alarm about Russia moving EW systems closer to NATO. UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Bilopillia (Sumy), northern Chernihiv, and border of Kharkiv/Poltava. The global Starlink outage, regardless of its origin, has created a widespread communication disruption that RF will adapt to and attempt to exploit. New reconnaissance UAVs detected north of Zaporizhzhia city, southern Sumy, northern Chernihiv, and northern Kharkiv Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs north of Zaporizhzhia and in central Sumy Oblast. New groups of enemy strike UAVs are moving through Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk. Five "mopeds" (drones) reported flying towards Dnipro from the Synelnykivskyi direction, indicating continued ISR and strike preparation in the southern axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Adaptive Homeland Defense: Claims of downing 39 UAVs over southern Russia and seas, but impacts confirmed (Sochi oil depot). Passenger flight disruptions and railway worker casualties indicate AD impacts civilian operations. Videos from Sochi confirm impact and aftermath. RF MoD summary indicates continued AD operations. "Two Majors" FPV anti-air drone video may indicate development of new counter-air capabilities. MoD Russia video shows mine action engineers demining border areas. ASTRA's report on increased checks on ship hulls in Ust-Luga port. ASTRA reports a criminal case opened against pilots for flying low over a beach. Vooin DV posts a video showing a Buk M3 system successfully destroying an aerial target. Colonelcassad posts video captioned "Tamer of 'Himars'". RBK-Ukraina reports at least 7 explosions in the suburbs of Taganrog and Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast. New reports from ASTRA indicate residents of Novocherkassk are again reporting a large number of drones and explosions. Igor Artamonov warns of a UAV attack threat in Yelets and Yelets district. RF has declared a "red" level drone threat for Lipetsk Oblast. ASTRA reports "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) implemented in North Ossetia and other SKFO regions due to UAV threat, citing Menyaylo. Krasnodar Krai Operative Headquarters reports drone attack. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train, injuring two. НгП раZVедка reports Nevinnomyssk is reflecting the most massive attack on the North Caucasus during the entire SVO. Temporary flight restrictions in 8 RF airports. This indicates a perceived success in AD and continued high state of alert in RF border regions. НгП раZVедка praises Nevinnomyssk AD. НгП раZVедка claims "Our victory, stand down" in Nevinnomyssk, suggesting successful AD. RBK-Ukraina reports Nevinnomyssk mayor claims 37 drone impacts with no losses or damage. ASTRA and RBK-Ukraina videos show significant fire/explosion at Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant, confirming deep strike capability against industrial targets. RBK-Ukraina reports 45 flights delayed in Sochi airport. TASS reports all flight restrictions at 8 airports in southern Russia and Tambov have been lifted. Igor Artamonov reports "yellow level" drone threat lifted. New information: MOD Russia claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA confirms MOD Russia's claim of 105 UAVs shot down (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). AV БогомаZ reports 25 enemy UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports Timashevsk railway station in Krasnodar Krai without power after UAV attack, 2 train passengers injured (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports railway station building in Peschanokopskoye, Rostov Oblast, damaged by UAV strike (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO posts video of drone attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant, mayor claims "over 20 hits" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Naval Power Projection: Naval exercise ("Ilyusky Shtorm") with missile launches. Putin states that plans to create modern naval forces will be fully implemented. Putin's visit to Severodvinsk underscores this. MoD Russia posts video of Putin raising the naval ensign on the "Knyaz Pozharsky" nuclear submarine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Internal Security: FSB demonstrates capability to identify and apprehend individuals calling for violence against military personnel and their families. Apprehension of FSB agents by SBU and prevention of terror attack in Kyiv indicates RF continued use of covert networks for internal destabilization efforts in Ukraine. RF claims of capturing a spotter in Kherson Oblast. TASS reports on Belousov's meeting on digital and technological development in MoD. Basurin o glavnom posts multiple videos demonstrating FSB operations. TASS reports conviction of a former Klintsy City Council deputy for fraud with SVO participant money. Sever.Realii reports FSB detained nine Russians for social media comments. ASTRA reports "Andrey Sakharov Institute" and "Peace. Progress. Human Rights" declared "undesirable". TASS reports the Moscow court arrested Aleksandr Bogashov, Gleb Trifonov, Eldar Belousov, and Menzhinsky on charges of abuse of power. TASS confirms "Andrey Sakharov Institute" declared "undesirable". Два майора reports on the Investigative Committee's case against MoD employees. TASS reports on Mikhail Gusman's release from TASS. TASS reports two more police officers arrested in connection with the Baza Telegram channel case. New photos from Arkhangel Spetsnaza claim "Another minor organized crime group caught." Colonelcassad posts new FSB videos from Kherson. TASS reports an apartment and car of an accomplice in the "Crocus" terrorist attack have been seized. TASS reports that the perpetrators of the Crocus terrorist attack have been recognized as sane. TASS reports that the organizers of the "Crocus" terrorist attack acted in the interests of Ukraine. TASS reports Bastrykin congratulated investigation authorities on their professional holiday. TASS reports blogger Yuri Dud, declared internationally wanted, may be checked for treason. Operation Z reports FSB has a new series "Spetsy" portraying heroic work of FSB special forces. TASS reports new suspects may emerge in the case of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, accused of abuse of power. Операция Z promotes a new series regarding the banning of "Satanist-Nazis" in Russia, showcasing internal crackdown. TASS reports Moscow court arrested businessman Moshkovich's bank accounts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Logistics Support from Regional Administrations: Gleb Nikitin's post confirms significant regional government support in providing materiel. Alex Parker Returns reports a proposal to construct "dome homes" in Novorossiya, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. Kadyrov_95's video of volunteers departing Grozny airport for the front indicates continued, organized volunteer recruitment. Putin's praise for a veteran application. MoD Russia posts a video of military engineers ensuring transport accessibility in Luhansk People's Republic. TASS reports Russian Railways (RZD) has redirected cargo traffic to alternative routes after incidents in Rostov Oblast. New information: Операция Z (Voenkor Russkaya Vesna) posts video appealing for thermal imagers for frontline soldiers (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Counter-Drone Tactics: Kotsnews' video "Kill 'Baba Yaga'" indicates RF forces are actively developing tactics to neutralize Ukrainian heavy FPV/bomber drones. "Two Majors" FPV anti-air drone "Rocket." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet. Colonelcassad's video showing the destruction of a Ukrainian KrAZ-260 military truck by drones suggests continued and effective RF counter-logistics drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: LOW for widespread impact of RF tactics, MEDIUM for experimental nature, MEDIUM for UAF Lancet intercept, MEDIUM for Two Majors analysis of the claim).
    • Religious Mobilization: Операция Z posts photo message about sharply increased youth interest in Orthodoxy, indicating an attempt to leverage religious sentiment for societal cohesion and support for the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Economic Strategy: TASS reports Mishustin stated RF is forming a closed-loop economy, with over half of solid municipal waste going to processing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Intentions:
    • Degrade Ukrainian Combat Potential and Civilian Morale: Maintain high-tempo missile/UAV/GAB attacks. Targeting of civilian infrastructure (Odesa market, residential building, Cherkasy cemetery/civilian area, Kharkiv residential area, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia university sports hall, Konstantinovka civilian areas, Norwegian humanitarian base in Mykolaiv, Nikopol, Sumy frontline community). Civilian casualties in Krasnodar will be used to justify further retaliation. The forced evacuation of Dobropillia in Donetsk Oblast. RF's alleged use of chemical weapons, as reported by GUR. RF claims aviation strike on a UAF HQ in Kherson. New drone threats to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Pavlohrad and Samara districts) underscore this intent. Five "mopeds" (drones) reported flying towards Dnipro from the Synelnykivskyi direction. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train, injuring two, which will be leveraged for propaganda. Continued GAB launches on Sumy Oblast. Targeting of industrial sites in RF (Nevinnomyssky Azot, Tambov Powder Plant) will lead to further RF retaliation against Ukrainian targets. Continued GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts. Operatyvny ZSU posts videos and photos highlighting drone attacks on Russian territory, intended to degrade RF morale and highlight vulnerability. New information: ASTRA reports Timashevsk railway station in Krasnodar Krai without power after UAV attack, 2 train passengers injured, directly validating this intention through civilian impact (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports railway station building in Peschanokopskoye, Rostov Oblast, damaged by UAV strike, further validating this intention (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Achieve Tactical Breakthroughs on Key Axes: Intensify ground operations on the Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk axes. Continue offensive actions in Kharkiv/Sumy. Capitalize on claimed gains in Zaporizhzhia. New RF milblogger video from Konstantinovka direction confirms active ground operations. TASS reports Zelenskyy named the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) section of the front as the most difficult for the AFU. Alex Parker Returns' claim on Pokrovsk indicates immediate RF intent. Rybar's latest operational summary with maps indicates continued intent for advances. RF milblogger "Operatsiya Z" posts drone footage implying continued offensive operations on the Zaporizhzhia front. НгП раZVедка reports "Good news from Sumy direction," indicating an intent for offensive action. TASS reports that the liberation of Novoekonomichne allows RF to put pressure on AFU near Krasnyi Lyman and "seriously complicate" enemy logistics. RF Army reports cleaning up two settlements near Krasnoarmeysk in DNR. Colonelcassad's video of a storm platoon commander further signals intent to assault fortified positions. Colonelcassad posts videos showing strikes on enemy manpower and equipment, demonstrating continued intent for offensive action. TASS reports Russian fighters improved tactical position near Petrovsky, taking about 3.5 km of the LNR administrative border under fire control, reinforcing intent for localized tactical gains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Pre-position for Future Offensives: Utilize intensified ISR and ELINT on the Southern Axis. New reconnaissance UAVs detected north of Zaporizhzhia city, southern Sumy, northern Chernihiv, and northern Kharkiv, confirming continued ISR preparation. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs north of Zaporizhzhia and in central Sumy Oblast. The movement of new groups of enemy strike UAVs from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk suggests a continued focus on preparing for operations in the southern and central sectors. Five "mopeds" (drones) reported flying towards Dnipro from Synelnykivskyi direction, signaling immediate strike intent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Protect Domestic Infrastructure: Prioritize AD and counter-UAS measures. ASTRA's report on increased checks on ship hulls in Ust-Luga port. A woman's death in Kursk Oblast from a drone attack. ASTRA reports on criminal case against pilots flying low over beach. Vooin DV's video showcasing a Buk M3 system's effectiveness against HIMARS. Colonelcassad posts video captioned "Tamer of 'Himars'". RBK-Ukraina reports at least 7 explosions in the suburbs of Taganrog and Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast. Traffic over the Crimean Bridge has been suspended. TASS reports on the seizure of property from a "Crocus" terrorist attack accomplice. New reports from ASTRA indicate residents of Novocherkassk are again reporting a large number of drones and explosions. Igor Artamonov warns of a UAV attack threat in Yelets and Yelets district. RF has declared a "red" level drone threat for Lipetsk Oblast. ASTRA reports "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) implemented in North Ossetia and other SKFO regions due to UAV threat. Krasnodar Krai Operative Headquarters reports drone attack. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train, injuring two. НгП раZVедка reports Nevinnomyssk is reflecting the most massive attack on the North Caucasus during the entire SVO. Temporary flight restrictions in 8 RF airports. This reinforces intent for homeland defense. НгП раZVедка claims "Our victory, stand down" in Nevinnomyssk, reinforcing this intent. Nevinnomyssk Mayor's statement on 37 impacts with no damage indicates an attempt to downplay effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes despite visual evidence of explosions at an industrial target. RBK-Ukraina reports 45 flights delayed in Sochi airport, demonstrating intent to manage air traffic due to perceived drone threats. TASS reports all flight restrictions at 8 airports in southern Russia and Tambov have been lifted. Igor Artamonov reports "yellow level" drone threat lifted. New information: MOD Russia claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA confirms MOD Russia's claim of 105 UAVs shot down (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). AV БогомаZ reports 25 enemy UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA reports Timashevsk railway station in Krasnodar Krai without power after UAV attack, 2 train passengers injured (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports railway station building in Peschanokopskoye, Rostov Oblast, damaged by UAV strike (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO posts video of drone attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant, mayor claims "over 20 hits" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Manage Domestic Narrative: Project image of successful military operations and governmental care. Use internal issues to distract or promote sense of order. The An-24 crash investigation focuses on technical issues. RF will use "neuro-profiling" on youth. Arrests of citizens calling for violence against military personnel. Efforts to support SVO participants and families. Addressing water supply issues in DNR. TASS reports Klishas's push to expand benefits for "civilian wives". TASS reports rising AI-95 gasoline prices. Searches in Khimki administration and charges against Bryansk Vice-Governor. New TASS report on arrests of Domodedovo City Prosecutor and Head of Capital Construction Department of Bryansk Oblast. TASS reports decision being prepared to ban gasoline exports. Moscow news reports "demographic special forces". "ZONA SVO" video of an RF soldier criticizing bloggers. Rybar's "Patriot in short supply" post. Operation Z's posts about "autocracy and witch hunt" in Ukraine. Colonelcassad's claim of eliminating Brazilian mercenaries. WarGonzo's claim about HUR using a runaway businessman. TASS reports on Russian students' success. Старше Эдды's discussion of the "scandalous МВД-Медиа video." TASS video of Putin expressing condolences. Moscow news reports on a new skyscraper. AV БогомаZ's posts on a new ice palace. Rybar's post "Kaluga beats migrants". Wildberries & Russ statement on senator's proposal. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a document stating "Sanctions do not affect!". Два майора's video on veteran rehabilitation. НгП раZVедка posts a video showing Russian military personnel in front of a MiG-29. WarGonzo posts a video from "Aldan" (penal colony) unit. «Зона СВО» posts a video of a serviceman of the LNR Ministry of Defense apologizing. TASS reports GAZ will transition to a four-day work week. Два майора posts a meme suggesting the importance of learning history. TASS reports that Russia will begin creating children's playgrounds. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo with commentary about Hulk Hogan. Novosti Moskvy posts a photo with text about the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) stating tattoos are 'identifiers for the devil'. TASS reports the largest Russian metallurgical plant announced a significant collapse in profits. Операция Z posts a video featuring a Latvian MEP. Colonelcassad's "Satanists in AFU" content. TASS reports on widespread Ukrainian protests against Zelenskyy and NABU/SAP. Two Majors post disinformation that Zelenskyy's bill on NABU/SAP. Alex Parker Returns posts video about an Afghan migrant incident in Omsk. ASTRA reports a criminal case against pilots. Basurin o glavnom posts a political cartoon. Operatsiya Z posts video of paratroopers advancing on the Sumy front. «Зона СВО» discusses blaming "Akhmat". MoD Russia video of military engineers in LPR. TASS reports on Mikhail Gusman's release from TASS. MoD Russia's video of an AFU POW (Eduard Zver). Alex Parker Returns posts a video alleging Ukrainian politician Bezuhla attempted to expose an agent "Tsyrskyi". Two Majors discuss the issue of purchasing military uniforms abroad. Russian milbloggers are leveraging the Starlink outage. Colonelcassad posts photos implying Ukrainian internal dissent. TASS reports Putin congratulated employees of investigative bodies. TASS reports Putin emphasizing suppression of external attempts. Colonelcassad posts video of Belousov checking automated control systems. Операция Z posts photo message featuring Elon Musk. "Narodnaya militsiya DNR" posts a video promoting pro-Russian journalists. Операция Z posts a video featuring a man who identifies himself as a serviceman of the LNR Ministry of Defense apologizing for past statements, aiming to manage internal perceptions of military personnel. TASS reports that the perpetrators of the Crocus terrorist attack have been recognized as sane, signaling internal resolution of a major security event. RF milblogger "НгП раZVедка" reports "Good news from Poltava Oblast," which is a likely domestic propaganda attempt to imply successful RF operations in an area previously not highly active. TASS reports that the organizers of the "Crocus" terrorist attack acted in the interests of Ukraine, a direct and significant piece of domestic propaganda. Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages and text regarding a "Sumy columbarium" and "Closing of America" in Ukraine, indicating another propaganda effort. Операция Z posts photo message about sharply increased youth interest in Orthodoxy, aiming to leverage religious sentiment for societal cohesion. TASS reports blogger Yuri Dud, declared internationally wanted, may be checked for treason, demonstrating ongoing intent to control information and punish perceived dissidents. Operation Z reports FSB has a new series "Spetsy" portraying heroic work of FSB special forces. RBK-Ukraina reports Trump signed a law canceling $9 billion in foreign aid and public broadcasting. Colonelcassad's video of a storm platoon commander promoting patriotic duty and military effectiveness. TASS reports new suspects may emerge in the case of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, part of the internal anti-corruption narrative. Nevinnomyssk Mayor's statement on 37 impacts with no damage is a clear attempt to control public narrative and downplay successful Ukrainian strikes, despite visual evidence of explosions at an industrial target. TASS reports over 200 people working at An-24 crash site in Tynda, demonstrating state responsiveness to domestic incidents. Операция Z directly disseminates content claiming a ban on "Satanist-Nazis" in Russia, further shaping internal narratives and consolidating social control. TASS reports on Armenian Union President's condemnation of Pashinyan, indicating RF's intent to exploit internal Armenian political divisions for their own geopolitical narratives. TASS posts a photo message showing the Cabinet of Ministers discussing preferential mortgages, indicating a focus on domestic economic stability and social welfare to manage internal narratives. TASS reports Moscow court arrested businessman Moshkovich's bank accounts. Два майора posts a photo about Starlink outage showing RF's need for its own satellite communication. New information: TASS posts photo message showing Indian PM Modi's achievement (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • De-stabilize Ukraine Internally: Continued use of covert networks and agents. RBK-Ukraina reports that Russia is sending kidnapped Ukrainian children to the front. Moscow News reports a new Telegram scam. New FSB videos from Colonelcassad showing the interrogation of a detained individual in Kherson. TASS reporting on protests against Zelenskyy/NABU/SAP. Alex Parker Returns' video regarding Bezuhla and "Tsyrskyi". The global Starlink outage. RBK-Ukraina reports a Ukrainian People's Deputy died in a car accident; RF will likely attempt to exploit this for internal destabilization narratives. TASS reports that the organizers of the "Crocus" terrorist attack acted in the interests of Ukraine, a direct attempt to link Ukraine to terrorism. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos showing ongoing protests in Kyiv regarding the NABU/SAP reform bill, which RF will leverage to highlight internal Ukrainian political division. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Geopolitical Disruption: France's announced recognition of Palestine in September. RF will continue to highlight the Cambodia-Thailand border conflict. Alex Parker Returns posts video claiming Cambodia is actively using Czech RM-70 Vampir MLRS against Thailand. Israel's condemnation of France's recognition of Palestine. TASS reports the UN Security Council will hold a meeting on July 25 regarding the escalation between Cambodia and Thailand. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Nuclear Influence: WSJ report on Iran resuming cooperation with IAEA on its nuclear program. RF will leverage this development to project an image of successful diplomacy or to highlight perceived double standards in international nuclear non-proliferation efforts, potentially aiming to divert attention from its own nuclear activities or influence global nuclear policy discussions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • FPV Drone Development: Colonelcassad posts videos showing FPV drone as RPG carrier, indicating RF's intent to develop and deploy more versatile FPV drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

  • Confirmed FAB-3000 and UMPB-5 Deployment: Operational use of FAB-3000 M-54 and UMPB-5 in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy, and implied across affected areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Shift to Mechanized Assaults on Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk Axis: Transition from dismounted infantry to company-sized mechanized assaults, notably involving 76th VDV Division and 98th VDV Division in Chasiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Intensified ISR/ELINT Ahead of Operations: Surge in ISR and ELINT activity on Southern Axis. Reconnaissance UAVs observed more widely. The global Starlink outage, regardless of its origin, has created a widespread communication disruption that RF will adapt to and attempt to exploit. RBK-Ukraina posts photo message warning of RF reconnaissance drones. New reconnaissance UAVs detected north of Zaporizhzhia city, southern Sumy, northern Chernihiv, and border of Kharkiv/Poltava. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs north of Zaporizhzhia and in central Sumy Oblast. New groups of enemy strike UAVs moving from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk indicates an adaptation to focus ISR and strike efforts in new or expanded areas. Five "mopeds" (drones) reported flying towards Dnipro from Synelnykivskyi direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Confirmed Civilian Infrastructure Targeting in Odesa, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Konstantinovka, Nikopol, Sumy: Direct hits on civilian areas and infrastructure. Attack on a Norwegian humanitarian base in Mykolaiv. New drone attacks reported on Kharkiv and Synelnykivskyi district. Fighterbomber's photo of claimed FAB-500 strikes on МВД building. Serhiy Lysak reports damage to residential buildings, a medical facility, and a lyceum in Nikopol. New information: ASTRA reports Timashevsk railway station in Krasnodar Krai without power after UAV attack, 2 train passengers injured, confirming successful targeting of civilian infrastructure within RF (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports railway station building in Peschanokopskoye, Rostov Oblast, damaged by UAV strike, confirming successful targeting of civilian infrastructure within RF (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Sustained Drone Attacks on Critical Infrastructure within RF: Multiple video confirmations of impacts and fires at Sochi oil depot. ASTRA's report on increased checks on ship hulls in Ust-Luga port. A woman's death in Kursk Oblast from a drone attack. ASTRA reports on criminal case against pilots flying low over beach. RBK-Ukraina reports at least 7 explosions in the suburbs of Taganrog and Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast. New reports from ASTRA indicate residents of Novocherkassk are again reporting a large number of drones and explosions. Igor Artamonov warns of a UAV attack threat in Yelets and Yelets district. RF has declared a "red" level drone threat for Lipetsk Oblast. ASTRA reports "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) implemented in North Ossetia and other SKFO regions due to UAV threat, citing Menyaylo. Krasnodar Krai Operative Headquarters reports drone attack. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train car, injuring two, a confirmed impact of Ukrainian drone activity. НгП раZVедка reports Nevinnomyssk is reflecting the most massive attack on the North Caucasus during the entire SVO, indicating RF's perceived and actual need for enhanced air defense. ASTRA confirms explosions in Nevinnomyssk. Temporary flight restrictions in 8 RF airports due to UAV threats. ASTRA and RBK-Ukraina videos show explosions and fire at Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant, confirming successful Ukrainian drone strikes on industrial targets within RF territory, demonstrating a continued adaptation to deep strike. RBK-Ukraina reports 45 flights delayed in Sochi airport, further indicating adaptation to drone threats. ASTRA video shows Nevinnomyssk mayor claiming "37 hits, no losses, no destruction," a clear adaptation to control public narrative after a significant strike. Operatyvny ZSU posts videos confirming drone activity and explosions in Tambov Oblast, specifically at the Tambov Powder Plant, indicating continued adaptation to deep strike against industrial targets within RF. TASS reports all flight restrictions at 8 airports in southern Russia and Tambov have been lifted, indicating RF's adaptive response to resume air traffic quickly after drone threats. Igor Artamonov reports "yellow level" drone threat lifted for Yelets. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video titled "Good drones didn't let Russia sleep: a series of explosions occurred in Stavropol Krai, Tambov, and Rostov Oblasts." New information: ASTRA reports Timashevsk railway station in Krasnodar Krai without power after UAV attack, 2 train passengers injured (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports railway station building in Peschanokopskoye, Rostov Oblast, damaged by UAV strike (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO posts video of drone attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant, mayor claims "over 20 hits" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Emerging RF Counter-UAV Tactics: Reported downing of UAF hexacopter by FPV-drone with Kalashnikov (if verified). Kotsnews video "Kill 'Baba Yaga'". "Two Majors" FPV anti-air drone "Rocket." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet. Colonelcassad posts video claiming a ZALA Lancet destroyed a 105-mm L119 Howitzer in Kharkiv Oblast. Colonelcassad's video showing the destruction of a Ukrainian KrAZ-260 military truck by drones suggests continued and effective RF counter-logistics drone operations. Colonelcassad posts videos showing FPV drone as RPG carrier, indicating a new adaptation for offensive drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: LOW for widespread impact of RF tactics, MEDIUM for experimental nature, MEDIUM for UAF Lancet intercept, MEDIUM for Two Majors analysis of the claim).
  • RF Field Repair and Modification: "Rembat" modifying UAZ vehicles into "forward-edge transporters." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Escalation of Cross-Border Attacks in Southeast Asia (RF narrative): RF reporting of MLRS strikes by Cambodian forces on Thailand. Rybar's new post emphasizes the "escalation." Kotsnews video emphasizes external instigation. Colonelcassad posts a map and photos confirming escalation. Alex Parker Returns posts video claiming Cambodia is actively using Czech RM-70 Vampir MLRS against Thailand. TASS reports the UN Security Council will hold a meeting on July 25 regarding the escalation between Cambodia and Thailand. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF Propaganda Re-framing of "Assault Groups": Rybar's use of "super-small assault groups." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Targeting Ukrainian UAV Production/Storage: RF MoD specifically claimed strikes on UAV assembly/storage workshops. Narodnaya militsiya DNR claims destruction of a UAF UAV control point. Colonelcassad posts video of claimed destruction of a UAF UAV control point in Poltavka. TASS reports "Grad" MLRS strikes in Kharkiv Oblast against UAF UAV control point. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Increased Depth of Sabotage Operations in Ukraine: The SBU's prevention of a terror attack in Kyiv, following the Mykolaiv operation. The alleged capture of a "spotter" in Kherson. Basurin o glavnom videos confirming arrests of collaborators. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the activation of the Israeli early warning system in Kyiv. New FSB videos from Colonelcassad showing the interrogation of a detained individual in Kherson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Use of Anti-Ship Missiles for Ground Attack: The "previous daily report" confirms the first operational use of P-800 Onyx anti-ship missiles against ground targets in Odesa. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Shift to Small-Unit Probing Attacks with UAV/EW Support: The "previous daily report" indicates a marked decrease in large-scale mechanized assaults across the front, replaced by coordinated small-unit (squad/platoon) probing attacks heavily enabled by FPV drone swarms and localized EW suppression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Concentration of Elite Units for Specific Objectives: The confirmed consolidation of 98th VDV Division elements east of Chasiv Yar for an imminent assault. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Shift in Operational Tempo: The decrease in offensive tempo along the Avdiivka axis, likely for reconstitution. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Movement of EW Systems towards NATO: RBK-Ukraina reports Estonia's alarm regarding Russia moving EW systems closer to NATO. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF Dehumanization Propaganda: Colonelcassad's new "Satanists in AFU" propaganda. Операция Z disseminates "Военкоры Русской Весны" content claiming Russia banned "Satanist-Nazis," expanding this propaganda narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Alleged Chemical Weapon Use: The GUR message regarding RF use of chemical weapons, if verified, represents a severe escalation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for GUR claim, LOW for independent verification).
  • RF MoD Internal Corruption: Two Majors report on the Investigative Committee opening a case against MoD employees. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • LPR Infrastructure Development: MoD Russia video on military engineers working on roads in LPR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF Internal Personnel Management: The dismissal of Mikhail Gusman from TASS, linked to his trip to Azerbaijan. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • New AD System Effectiveness (RF): Vooin DV posts a video showing a Buk M3 system successfully destroying an aerial target. Colonelcassad posts video captioned "Tamer of 'Himars'". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF Automated Control Systems: Colonelcassad posts a video of RF Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov checking on the implementation of automated control systems in the combat zone. TASS reports Russian Railways (RZD) has redirected cargo traffic to alternative routes after incidents in Rostov Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF Internal Military Discipline: Операция Z posts a video featuring a man who identifies himself as a serviceman of the LNR Ministry of Defense apologizing for past statements, indicating efforts to manage and control internal military discipline and image. Colonelcassad's video of a storm platoon commander emphasizes strict preparation and discipline for offensive operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Starlink Outage (Software Related): SpaceX VP Michael Nichols confirms the global Starlink outage was due to software and largely resolved. This indicates RF likely did not achieve a kinetic or EW-based disruption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Crocus Attack Link to Ukraine (RF Claim): TASS reports that case materials indicate the "Crocus" attack organizers acted in Ukraine's interest. This is a significant adaptation in RF information operations, attempting to directly link Ukraine to a major domestic terror event. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF claim, LOW for factual basis).
  • RF Internal Security Measures: TASS reports a "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) has been introduced in North Ossetia and other regions of the North Caucasus Federal District. ASTRA reports "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) implemented in North Ossetia and other SKFO regions. Temporary flight restrictions in 8 RF airports due to UAV threats. TASS reports new suspects may emerge in the case of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, indicating further internal investigations and adaptations to address corruption/abuse of power. New information: MOD Russia claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA confirms MOD Russia's claim of 105 UAVs shot down (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). AV БогомаZ reports 25 enemy UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Religious Mobilization: Операция Z posts photo message about sharply increased youth interest in Orthodoxy, indicating an adaptation to leverage religious sentiment for societal cohesion and support for the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Increased Judicial Action on Businessmen: TASS reports Moscow court arrested businessman Moshkovich's bank accounts, indicating an adaptation in internal security/corruption crackdown. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

  • Munitions Access (GABs): Confirmed use of FAB-3000 and UMPB-5 across multiple axes. Continued GAB launches on Sumy Oblast. Continued GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for munition stocks).
  • Munitions Access (UAV/Missile): Persistent and widespread strikes confirm continued access. Reports of Chinese engines for drones smuggled into Russia. НгП раZVедка's video of Russian military personnel receiving electronic devices. Colonelcassad's video showing a destroyed ammunition truck suggests RF drone operators are adapting to targeting UAF logistics and ammunition supplies. Operatyvny ZSU posts videos confirming drone activity and explosions in Tambov Oblast, specifically at the Tambov Powder Plant (a major gunpowder producer), which would indicate an impact on RF's munition production capabilities if damage is significant. New information: Операция Z (Voenkor Russkaya Vesna) posts video appealing for thermal imagers for frontline soldiers, suggesting a continued need for specific equipment at the unit level despite overall production (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for munition stocks, HIGH for sanction circumvention).
  • Homefront Stability Efforts: Payments to displaced Kursk residents. Demonstration of rembat activity. Measures to support SVO participants and families. Addressing water supply issues in DNR. TASS reports Klishas's push to expand benefits for "civilian wives". TASS reports rising AI-95 gasoline prices. Searches in Khimki administration and charges against Bryansk Vice-Governor. New TASS report on arrests of Domodedovo City Prosecutor and Head of Capital Construction Department of Bryansk Oblast. TASS reports decision being prepared to ban gasoline exports. Gleb Nikitin's post on humanitarian aid for RF units. TASS reports that Mars is working to resolve the suspension of product shipments by X5 Group. AV БогомаZ's posts on construction projects. TASS reports Ministry of Health amendments on sick leave. Wildberries & Russ statement on senator's proposal. MoD Russia video on demining Belgorod border area. Alex Parker Returns reports a proposal to construct "dome homes". TASS reports GAZ moving to a four-day work week. RBK-Ukraina reports the largest Russian metallurgical plant announced a significant collapse in profits. TASS reports the apartment and car of an accomplice in the "Crocus" terrorist attack have been seized. TASS reports Russian Railways (RZD) has redirected cargo traffic to alternative routes after incidents in Rostov Oblast. TASS reports that the perpetrators of the Crocus terrorist attack have been recognized as sane, implying a conclusion to a significant internal security investigation. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train, injuring two, requiring logistical response. TASS reports Amur Oblast Governor Vasily Orlov is in Tynda to assess the An-24 crash, highlighting a significant internal logistics/response event. TASS reports new suspects may emerge in the case of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, reflecting ongoing efforts to manage internal issues. TASS reports over 200 people working at An-24 crash site in Tynda, demonstrating continued logistical commitment to crash response. TASS posts a photo message showing the Cabinet of Ministers discussing preferential mortgages, indicating efforts to maintain domestic economic stability. TASS reports Mishustin stated RF is forming a closed-loop economy. New information: TASS reports Khusnullin believes key rate could be lowered to 10-12% by year-end, indicating economic stability efforts (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Unit-Level Sustainment: Continued appeals for drones by RF milbloggers. Dry rations investigation. Arkhangel Spetsnaza appeals for donations for "VDV Day". Butusov Plus reports on Russian military widow being put on wanted list. Alex Parker Returns posts soliciting donations for SVO. New "Two Majors" video shows RF personnel expressing gratitude. WarGonzo video of soldier losing a foot. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki report on court denying compensation. Two Majors' video showcasing a tactical medical kit ("HEALER" IFAK). Два майора posts a video depicting individuals with prosthetic limbs. WarGonzo posts a video from "Aldan" (penal colony) unit. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki reports a military police officer beating an elderly serviceman. The global Starlink outage will significantly impact logistical challenges. Colonelcassad's video of a storm platoon commander emphasizes the importance of proper medical and combat loadout, suggesting continued focus on individual soldier sustainment. New information: Операция Z (Voenkor Russkaya Vesna) posts video appealing for thermal imagers for frontline soldiers, indicating specific unit-level equipment needs (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Financial Stability: Alfa-Bank app failure. TASS reports that investigators are seeking the arrest of three Interior Ministry employees accused of receiving bribes from Baza Telegram channel journalists. TASS reports the arrest of Gleb Trifonov. The General Prosecutor's Office reports on "PonaD 200 million UAH of losses!". TASS reports Moscow court arrested businessman Moshkovich's bank accounts. (CONFIDENCE: LOW).
  • Economic Pressures: X5 (retailer) stopping Mars product shipments. Moscow news reports tens of thousands of teachers could be without work. Strike at Turkish NPP built by Rosatom. TASS confirms X5 Group expects Mars product remnants to end by August-September. TASS reports a potential gasoline export ban. RBK-Ukraina reports the largest Russian metallurgical plant announced a significant collapse in profits. ASTRA and RBK-Ukraina videos showing explosions at Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant indicate damage to industrial production capacity, which could impact RF economy/logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

  • Responsive Air Operations: Continued and precise nature of UAV/missile targeting and successful FAB-3000/UMPB-5 deployment. Claims of RF drones destroying UAF UAV control points. Colonelcassad's animated map of recent strikes. MoD Russia's video showing a drone strike on a dugout and a pillbox. TASS reports "Grad" MLRS strikes in Kharkiv Oblast against UAF UAV control point. UAF Air Force reports RF launches of GABs onto Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) over Sumy city. НгП раZVедка's claim of "Our victory, stand down" in Nevinnomyssk, suggesting effective AD C2 response. UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southeastern direction. UAF Air Force confirms GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts. New information: MOD Russia claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight, indicating effective AD C2 (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). AV БогомаZ reports 25 enemy UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast overnight, indicating effective AD C2 (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ground Operations C2 (Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk): Shift to coordinated company-sized mechanized assaults. Colonelcassad's claims of tactical advances and envelopment in Chasiv Yar. Colonelcassad's claim of Novoekonomichne liberation by 51st Guards Combined Arms Army. WarGonzo posts video of RF Minister of Defense Belousov checking implementation of automated control systems. Colonelcassad posts a video of representatives of military groups discussing the special military operation. RF milblogger "Operatsiya Z" posts drone footage implying continued and coordinated offensive operations. Kadyrov_95 posts video showing Akhmat Special Forces soldiers assembling a drone in a forest. Voenkor Kotenok posts a map of Pokrovskoye (Krasnoarmeyskoye) direction. Colonelcassad posts a video of RF Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov checking on the implementation of automated control systems. "Narodnaya militsiya DNR" posts a video regarding media operations in a conflict zone. TASS reports that the liberation of Novoekonomichne allows RF to put pressure on AFU near Krasnyi Lyman and "seriously complicate" enemy logistics, demonstrating RF's C2 understanding of the tactical and logistical implications of their advances. Colonelcassad's video of a storm platoon commander detailing offensive tactics further solidifies RF intent for sustained ground pressure. Colonelcassad posts videos showing specific RF brigades/regiments (336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade and the 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Division of the 5th Army Group "Vostok") conducting strikes on enemy manpower and equipment, indicating effective C2 at the tactical level. TASS reports Russian fighters improved tactical position near Petrovsky, taking about 3.5 km of the LNR administrative border under fire control, demonstrating continued C2 effectiveness in localized ground operations. Colonelcassad posts videos showing FPV drone as RPG carrier, indicating C2 effectiveness in adapting new capabilities. Colonelcassad posts videos showing FPV drone operators from 5th Separate Guards Tank Brigade ("Vostok" group) hitting enemy logistics, demonstrating C2 effectiveness in coordinating drone strikes for logistical disruption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • ISR/ELINT Coordination: Surge in ISR and ELINT activity. The global Starlink outage represents a significant disruption to Ukrainian C2. New reconnaissance UAVs detected north of Zaporizhzhia city, southern Sumy, northern Chernihiv, and northern Kharkiv. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs north of Zaporizhzhia and in central Sumy Oblast. The movement of new groups of enemy strike UAVs from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk indicates continued RF C2 effectiveness in coordinating multi-regional drone operations. Five "mopeds" (drones) reported flying towards Dnipro from the Synelnykivskyi direction, signaling immediate and coordinated deep strike activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Domestic Security C2: Repulsion of drone attacks on Krasnodar Krai. Response to internal issues. SBU's operation in Mykolaiv and Kyiv highlights RF's continued use of covert networks and Ukraine's effective counter-intelligence. FSB's arrests of domestic dissidents. The alleged capture of a "spotter" in Kherson. TASS reports on Belousov's meeting on digital and technological development in MoD. The arrest of Bryansk Vice-Governor. New TASS video of Belousov's meeting. TASS reports Simonenko does not admit guilt. "ZONA SVO" video features an RF soldier criticizing bloggers. ASTRA's report on checks on ship hulls in Ust-Luga port. TASS reports the Moscow court arrested the Baza editor-in-chief and the Minister of Property for Chelyabinsk Oblast. TASS reports the Moscow court arrested the acting Head of Affairs of the Governor and Government of Chelyabinsk Oblast, Menzhinsky. TASS confirms "Andrey Sakharov Institute" declared "undesirable". TASS reports Chief Editor of Baza, Gleb Trifonov, refused to testify. Два майора reports on the Investigative Committee's case against MoD employees. TASS reports on Mikhail Gusman's release from TASS. TASS reports two more police officers arrested. New photos from Arkhangel Spetsnaza claim "Another minor organized crime group caught." Colonelcassad posts photos implying Ukrainian internal dissent. TASS reports Starlink users complaining about malfunctions. TASS reports Putin emphasized the need to severely suppress any external attempts. TASS reports an apartment and car of an accomplice in the "Crocus" terrorist attack have been seized. TASS reports that the perpetrators of the Crocus terrorist attack have been recognized as sane. TASS reports that the organizers of the "Crocus" terrorist attack acted in the interests of Ukraine, demonstrating the RF's C2 in attributing events to Ukraine. TASS reports Bastrykin congratulated investigation authorities on their professional holiday. ASTRA reports "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) implemented in North Ossetia and other SKFO regions. Temporary flight restrictions in 8 RF airports. TASS reports Amur Oblast Governor Vasily Orlov is in Tynda to assess An-24 crash, indicating rapid governmental response to a domestic crisis. TASS reports new suspects may emerge in the case of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, indicating ongoing C2 in domestic anti-corruption efforts. Nevinnomyssk Mayor's statement on 37 impacts with no damage is a clear C2 attempt to control the information narrative after a significant strike. RBK-Ukraina reports 45 flights delayed in Sochi airport, highlighting C2 in air traffic management due to perceived threats. TASS reports all flight restrictions at 8 airports in southern Russia and Tambov have been lifted, indicating rapid and effective C2 in managing airspace after drone threats. Два майора provides a morning summary, acting as a key C2 node for RF milbloggers and their audience. Рыбарь posts a chronicle of the Special Military Operation, another key C2 node for milbloggers. Igor Artamonov reports "yellow level" drone threat lifted, indicating effective C2 in threat management. TASS reports Moscow court arrested businessman Moshkovich's bank accounts, indicating C2 in internal economic/corruption crackdowns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Strategic C2: TASS reports RF delegation returning from Istanbul talks. Putin attending Supreme Court Chairman's farewell. TASS reports Zakharova's statements regarding Russia's participation in the Helsinki Final Act conference. The arrest of Bryansk Vice-Governor. New TASS video of Belousov's meeting. TASS reports Simonenko does not admit guilt. "ZONA SVO" video features an RF soldier criticizing bloggers. The Lithuanian General's statement about NATO infrastructure readiness. Putin's statement about fully implementing plans for modern naval forces. Putin's visit to Severodvinsk. Старше Эдды's discussion of the МВД-Медиа video. TASS video of Putin at the nuclear submarine ceremony. «Зона СВО» posts a video of an LNR Ministry of Defense serviceman apologizing. TASS reports GAZ moving to a four-day work week. Novosti Moskvy reporting on metro disruptions. The previous daily report notes a confirmed concentration of 98th VDV Division elements east of Chasiv Yar. Operation Z posts a video featuring a Latvian MEP. MoD Russia video of Putin discussing submarine development. «Зона СВО» posts a photo discussing blaming "Akhmat". RBK-Ukraina reports IAEA team was not allowed access to ZNPP training center. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy changed the composition of the Stavka of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. TASS reports Russian Railways (RZD) has redirected cargo traffic. TASS reports the UN Security Council will hold a meeting on July 25 regarding the escalation between Cambodia and Thailand. TASS reports that Trump signed a law to cut $9 billion in foreign aid, which RF will interpret as a strategic gain, demonstrating Putin's successful manipulation of US internal politics. WSJ reports Iran decided to resume cooperation with IAEA on its nuclear program, demonstrating RF's ability to influence international nuclear non-proliferation efforts through its allies. Operation Z reports FSB has a new series "Spetsy" portraying heroic work of FSB special forces. TASS reports Armenian Union President's condemnation of Pashinyan, indicating RF's strategic C2 in exploiting regional political dynamics. TASS reports Mishustin stated RF is forming a closed-loop economy. New information: TASS posts photo message showing Indian PM Modi's achievement, indicating RF's attention to global political developments and possibly their own C2 in international relations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Khusnullin believes key rate could be lowered to 10-12% by year-end, indicating strategic C2 in economic policy (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

  • Air Defense (AD) Posture: Remains highly vigilant and engaged. Successful interception of 2 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk and 90 of 103 drones and 1 cruise missile overnight. Differentiated air raid alerts in Kyiv Oblast. Scale of damage and FAB-3000/UMPB-5 impact indicates AD saturation or gaps. New ballistic missile threat detected. New enemy UAVs reported in Sumy, northern Kharkiv, and southwest of Dnipro, and northeastern Poltava, with assets engaged. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports weekly destruction of over 50 Russian reconnaissance drones. New GAB launches on Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Sumy suggest persistent aerial threats. New missile threat detected for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The Israeli early warning system for air threats became operational in Kyiv last night. New high-speed target reported in Sumy Oblast (Khotin) and UAV near Shostka (Sumy Oblast). Enemy UAVs approaching Kharkiv from the north. The AFU Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetropats Oblast. The "previous daily report" confirms the use of P-800 Onyx missiles against ground targets in Odesa. RBK-Ukraina reports a drone fell in Poltava Oblast due to AD work. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that German HENSOLDT will produce TRML-4D and SPEXER 2000 radars for Ukraine for €340 million. New US aid package includes AD systems. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports successful interception of drones near Kremenchuk. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs north of Zaporizhzhia and in central Sumy Oblast are being engaged. The global Starlink outage was software-related and largely resolved, limiting its long-term impact on UAF communication. Nikolaevsky Vanek confirms all "mopeds" (drones) near Kremenchuk/Svitlovodsk are neutralized. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) over Sumy city is being engaged. UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southeastern direction. UAF Air Force confirms GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts. New information: Serhiy Lysak reports 7 enemy drones liquidated over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF General Staff provides updated approximate enemy losses, including 2 AD systems (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU confirms 2 AD systems destroyed (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ground Forces Posture (Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk): Facing increasingly coordinated mechanized assaults. High volume of requests for drones from Pokrovsk. UAF General Staff reports 172 combat engagements. UAF drone units remain effective. Marine brigades maintain lines and repel attacks. The 43rd OMBR and 32nd Steel Brigade are actively seeking drone donations. Butusov Plus releases graphic video of a Russian soldier's apparent suicide by grenade. Facing significant, claimed RF advances in Chasiv Yar by 98th VDV. Butusov Plus posts videos from SBU's "A" Special Operations Center, claiming over 2100 Russian soldiers eliminated. DeepState and Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukraїni post videos of drone strikes by 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade. The "previous daily report" notes a significant reduction in offensive actions on the Avdiivka axis. ОТУ "Харків" posts new drone footage showing "Molniya" strike UAVs destroying Russian observation posts. TASS reports RF "siloviki" claim UAF intends to increase grouping near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Operatyvny ZSU posts a video showing a UAF soldier surrounded by drones asking for donations for FPV transceivers. STERNENKO posts a video demonstrating a drone operation. Colonelcassad posts several photos captioned "SVO landscapes. South-Donetsk direction." New photo messages from ОТУ "Харків" depict military vehicles in a night setting. TASS reports Zelenskyy named the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) section of the front as the most difficult. Alex Parker Returns claims RF forces have secured positions in Pokrovsk. The global Starlink outage will significantly impact UAF ground forces' communication. Colonelcassad posts satellite imagery claiming to show UAF engineering structures and defense lines under construction in Kramatorsk district. UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapon use in Sumy, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. Colonelcassad's video of a destroyed Ukrainian KrAZ-260 military truck (potentially ammunition carrier) highlights a vulnerability in UAF ground logistics and transport, impacting resupply and operational readiness. TASS reports that the liberation of Novoekonomichne by RF allows them to put pressure on AFU near Krasnyi Lyman and "seriously complicate" enemy logistics, indicating immediate impact on UAF ground posture. New information: UAF General Staff reports approximately 980 enemy personnel losses (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports +980 "welded" (killed) occupiers, confirming significant enemy personnel losses (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Civilian Response: Civilian populations respond to alerts. Emergency services actively engaged. General Prosecutor's Office initiated investigations. Patrol police in Cherkasy actively evacuating citizens. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration video shows ongoing civilian housing repair efforts. RBK-Ukraina reports forced evacuation expanding in Donetsk Oblast. Oleksandr Vilkul's posts on reconstruction and road repairs. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports forced evacuation of families with children from Dobropillia. Serhiy Lysak reports damage to residential buildings, a medical facility, and a lyceum in Nikopol. Oleksandr Vilkul reports reduced road repairs due to funds redirected to support Defense Forces. RBK-Ukraina posts photos from Odesa showing extensive debris. ASTRA provides multiple photos of destruction and rescue efforts in Odesa. RBK-Ukraina reports a third day of protests in Kyiv under the Franko Theater against the law on NABU. RBK-Ukraina reports a frontline community in Sumy Oblast was attacked, with one fatality near Znob-Novhorodske. RBK-Ukraina reports IAEA team was not allowed access to ZNPP training center. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos showing ongoing protests in Kyiv regarding the NABU/SAP reform bill, indicating continued public engagement and a critical stance towards the government's actions. New information: Oleksandr Vilkul reports Kryvyi Rih situation controlled (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Training & Readiness: DSHV training center activity. Return of paratroopers from captivity. Adapted civilian vehicles for military missions. Oleg Syniehubov's photos of returned POWs. DSHV releases a new motivational video. РБК-Україна reports on military registration for 17-year-olds. UAF General Staff publishes photos showing a young female athlete. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy changed the composition of the Stavka of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video confirming the localization of German Vector drones production in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Resource Management: Units actively fundraising. Scaling up domestic explosives production. General Staff announcing partnership with "Ballistics" for "Army+" program. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast receiving three new ambulances from philanthropists. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 confirms receiving two donations. KMVA reports a meeting with International Monetary Fund representatives. STERNENKO highlights a "significant deficit" in "Rusoriz" (drone) production/availability. Oleksandr Vilkul's report on redirecting road repair funds to defense. The General Prosecutor's Office reporting on over 200 million UAH of losses. Operatyvny ZSU posts a video featuring a UAF soldier surrounded by drones asking for donations for FPV transceivers. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a €340 million contract for HENSOLDT radars. RBK-Ukraina and Operatyvny ZSU report Nazariy Husakov suspected in fraud case involving charitable collections. New US aid package for $330M approved. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Counter-Intelligence Posture: SBU's successful operation in Mykolaiv and Kyiv. General Prosecutor's office is addressing corruption cases. The General Prosecutor's Office reports the detention of a deserting serviceman. The General Prosecutor's Office is also investigating a scheme involving demands for bribes for military medical commissions. Zelenskiy / Official, STERNENKO, RBK-Ukraina, and Operatyvny ZSU all report President Zelenskyy's approval of a draft law strengthening law enforcement, anti-corruption bodies, and protecting them from Russian influence. The General Prosecutor's Office reports on stopping the work of a transnational hacker forum. Oleg Syniehubov posts a video discussing the operational situation in Kharkiv Oblast. General Prosecutor's Office publicizes the detention of an RF agent. Шеф Hayabusa posts a photo discussing why protests are forbidden during wartime. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy proposed Germany participate in the expertise of the NABU draft law. Operatyvny ZSU reports NABU employees with state secret access will undergo SBU polygraph tests. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy submitted a draft law to the Rada on NABU and SAP independence. NABU's support for the new draft law reinforces its positive image. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms Zelenskyy's submission. STERNENKO clarifies previous legal status. RBK-Ukraina notes NABU reaction. RBK-Ukraina reports NABU responded to "new risks." Oleg Syniehubov posts photos confirming NABU and SAP supported draft law №13533. General Prosecutor's Office reports exposing a scheme to seize funds under the guise of SMA treatment collection. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video of President Zelenskyy stating that everyone with access to state secrets, including in NABU, SAP, DBR, and National Police, must undergo lie detector tests, indicating continued focus on counter-intelligence and anti-corruption within government structures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

  • Successes:
    • AD Engagements: Two UAVs intercepted over Dnipropetrovsk. 90 of 103 RF UAVs downed overnight, plus one cruise missile. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports weekly destruction of over 50 Russian reconnaissance drones. The Israeli early warning system for air threats became operational in Kyiv last night. An enemy drone fell in Poltava Oblast due to AD work. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that German HENSOLDT will produce TRML-4D and SPEXER 2000 radars for Ukraine for €340 million. New US aid package includes AD systems. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports successful interception of drones near Kremenchuk. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs north of Zaporizhzhia and in central Sumy Oblast are being engaged. The global Starlink outage was software-related and largely resolved, limiting its long-term impact on UAF communication. Nikolaevsky Vanek confirms all "mopeds" (drones) near Kremenchuk/Svitlovodsk are neutralized. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) over Sumy city is being engaged. New information: Serhiy Lysak reports 7 enemy drones liquidated over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF General Staff provides updated approximate enemy losses, including 2 AD systems (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU confirms 2 AD systems destroyed (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Prisoner Exchange: Return of Ukrainian military personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Situational Control: Kryvyi Rih remains controlled. New information: Oleksandr Vilkul reports Kryvyi Rih situation controlled (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Repulsion of Mechanized Assaults: UAF on Pokrovsk axis successfully repelled at least two company-sized mechanized assaults. UAF General Staff reports numerous repelled assaults. STERNENKO reports Sky Hunters of the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade stopping new Russian assaults on Kupyansk direction. STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF (SSO A) engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. Butusov Plus posts videos from SBU's "A" Special Operations Center, claiming over 2100 Russian soldiers eliminated. DeepState and Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukraїni post videos of drone strikes by 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade. The "previous daily report" notes a significant reduction in offensive actions on the Avdiivka axis. ОТУ "Харків" posts new drone footage showing "Molniya" strike UAVs destroying Russian observation posts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Effective Counter-Offensive Operations (Sochi): Continued Ukrainian long-range UAV attacks on critical RF infrastructure. ASTRA reports Krasnodar Krai Operative Headquarters reports drone attack, implicitly confirming continued success of Ukrainian drone operations. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train car, injuring two, a confirmed impact of Ukrainian drone activity. ASTRA and RBK-Ukraina videos show explosions and fire at Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant, confirming successful deep strike operations against Russian industrial targets. RBK-Ukraina reports 45 flights delayed in Sochi airport, confirming disruptions caused by Ukrainian drone activity. Operatyvny ZSU posts videos confirming successful drone attacks on Rostov Oblast and Tambov Oblast, specifically targeting the Tambov Powder Plant, indicating continued deep strike success against RF military-industrial targets. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video titled "Good drones didn't let Russia sleep: a series of explosions occurred in Stavropol Krai, Tambov, and Rostov Oblasts." New information: ASTRA reports Timashevsk railway station in Krasnodar Krai without power after UAV attack, 2 train passengers injured (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports railway station building in Peschanokopskoye, Rostov Oblast, damaged by UAV strike (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO posts video of drone attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant, mayor claims "over 20 hits" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Drone Strikes against RF targets: RBK-Ukraine reports successful drone strikes destroying Msta-B howitzer and communication equipment. STERNENKO reports successful drone strikes against RF personnel. OTU "Kharkiv" reports success against enemy vehicles. Butusov Plus provides graphic video of a Russian soldier's apparent suicide by grenade. Butusov Plus posts video of a Ukrainian drone successfully detonating an unexploded Russian bomb. STERNENKO posts a video demonstrating a drone operation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a Ukrainian tactical aviation strike on an FSB base in Bryansk Oblast, Russia. Operatyvny ZSU posts a drone video showing explosions on a fortified position. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • SBU Counter-Terrorism Operation: Successful prevention of dual terrorist act in Mykolaiv and a significant terror act in central Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Domestic Explosives Production: Scaling up production. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Defense Industry Partnership: New partnership with "Ballistics" for "Army+" program. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Fiscal Integrity: General Prosecutor's Office reports restitution of 29 million UAH. New report on over 200 million UAH of losses. General Prosecutor's Office reports exposing a scheme to seize funds under the guise of SMA treatment collection. RBK-Ukraina and Operatyvny ZSU report Nazariy Husakov suspected in fraud case. STERNENKO confirms Husakov's suspicion by the Prosecutor General. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Addressing Disinformation: Ukrainian public and RBK-Ukraina countered Congresswoman Greene's fake news. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Strengthening Law Enforcement/Anti-Corruption: President Zelenskyy's approval of a draft law in this area. EU Commission "welcomed" the new bill. STERNENKO, RBK-Ukraina, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirm Zelenskyy's submission of the new NABU/SAP draft law. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Cyber Security: Ukrainian law enforcement, with French colleagues and Europol, stopped a transnational hacker forum. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Civilian Infrastructure Repair: Oleksandr Vilkul's posts on road construction. His report on redirecting road repair funds to defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • International Financial Engagement: Kyiv City Military Administration meeting with IMF representatives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Diplomatic Engagement: Zelenskiy / Official reports a good conversation with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Sports Achievement for Morale: UAF General Staff highlighting a young female athlete's achievements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • International Condemnation of RF: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Netherlands and 40 OSCE countries initiating investigation into alleged torture of Ukrainian POWs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Military Leadership Adjustments: RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy changed the composition of the Stavka of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • New US Aid Package: US approval of $330M military aid package. Approval of $150M for M109 howitzer maintenance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Setbacks:
    • Civilian Casualties and Infrastructure Damage: Significant civilian casualties (12 in Cherkasy, 1 fatality + 3+ injured in Odesa, unspecified in Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, 41 in Kharkiv including 6 children, 2 killed and 14 injured in Konstantinovka, 1 killed in Sumy). Drone attack on Norwegian humanitarian base in Mykolaiv. Serhiy Lysak reports damage to residential buildings, a medical facility, and a lyceum in Nikopol. New information: ASTRA reports Timashevsk railway station in Krasnodar Krai without power after UAV attack, 2 train passengers injured (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports railway station building in Peschanokopskoye, Rostov Oblast, damaged by UAV strike (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO posts video of drone attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant, mayor claims "over 20 hits," indicating continued damage to targets (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • FAB-3000/UMPB-5 Impact: Deployment and impact of FAB-3000 M-54 and UMPB-5 near Lyptsi and Kharkiv center. Confirmed GAB use on Donetsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Kherson. Continued GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Persistent UAV Threat: Confirmed mass drone attack on Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and Sumy. New UAVs reported in Sumy, northern Kharkiv, and southwest of Dnipro, and northeastern Poltava. New high-speed target reported in Sumy Oblast (Khotin) and UAV near Shostka (Sumy Oblast). New Shahed drones detected moving towards Sumy city. Explosions reported in Kremenchuk area. Threat of enemy strike UAVs detected in Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected north of Zaporizhzhia, southern Sumy, northern Chernihiv, and northern Kharkiv Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs north of Zaporizhzhia and in central Sumy Oblast. New groups of enemy strike UAVs moving from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk, and specifically 2 "mopeds" (drones) heading for Pavlohrad, indicate continued and potentially intensified UAV threats to central Ukraine. Five "mopeds" (drones) reported flying towards Dnipro from the Synelnykivskyi direction. UAF Air Force reports repeated GAB launches onto Donetsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) over Sumy city. UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southeastern direction. New information: MOD Russia claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ASTRA confirms MOD Russia's claim of 105 UAVs shot down (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). AV БогомаZ reports 25 enemy UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Frontline Pressure (Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk): RF's shift to larger mechanized assaults. Colonelcassad's claims of RF liberation of Shevchenko and Pivdenny micro-districts and envelopment of Zemlianky micro-districts in Chasiv Yar, and Yablonovka. Colonelcassad's claim of Novoekonomichne liberation. The "previous daily report" highlights an imminent, major ground assault on Chasiv Yar. Butusov Plus video showing Mirnohrad in ruins. Operation Z claims Russian army broke into Kupyansk. Vooin DV claims 51st Guards Combined Arms Army liberated Novoekonomichne. TASS reports Zelenskyy named the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) section of the front as the most difficult. Alex Parker Returns claims RF forces have secured positions in Pokrovsk. RF milblogger "Operatsiya Z" posts drone footage implying continued offensive operations on the Zaporizhzhia front. Colonelcassad posts video claiming a ZALA Lancet destroyed a 105-mm L119 Howitzer in Kharkiv Oblast. TASS reports that the liberation of Novoekonomichne by RF allows them to put pressure on AFU near Krasnyi Lyman and "seriously complicate" enemy logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Claimed RF River Crossing (Kharkiv): The RF claim of crossing the Verkhnya Dvurechnaya river at Melovoe, if confirmed, represents a minor tactical setback. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
    • Potential Ambulance Strike (Zaporizhzhia): Unconfirmed report of UAF drone striking an ambulance. (CONFIDENCE: LOW for UAF action).
    • Vulnerability of Civilian Shipping: Explosion on a Ukrainian dredge ship "Delta-Lotsman" in Bystre estuary. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Economic Impact of Heat: Cargo transport restrictions in Kyiv due to heat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Nationwide Air Alarm: MiG-31K launch triggered a nationwide air alarm. New ballistic missile threat from northeast. The "previous daily report" confirms the use of P-800 Onyx missiles against ground targets in Odesa. New high-speed missile detected in Chernihiv Oblast. New high-speed target detected on the northeastern part of Poltava region towards Kremenchuk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • RF Claimed Territorial Gains: TASS reports "Center" group liberated Novoekonomichne and Zverevo. Z комитет + карта СВО posts claimed advances in #ZelenyyHay. TASS reports Russian fighters improved tactical position near Petrovsky, taking about 3.5 km of the LNR administrative border under fire control. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for TASS, HIGH for Z committee).
    • Internal Diplomatic Friction: RBK-Ukraina reports Macron and Costa dissuaded Zelenskyy from signing the law on NABU and SAP. STERNENKO highlights a "significant deficit" in "Rusoriz" (drone) production/availability. RBK-Ukraina reports NABU responded to "new risks" in Zelenskyy's new draft law. RBK-Ukraina reports a third day of protests in Kyiv. TASS reports widespread protests in 10 Ukrainian cities. Colonelcassad posts photos implying Ukrainian internal dissent. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos showing ongoing protests in Kyiv regarding the NABU/SAP reform bill, indicating continued internal political challenges for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • New Form of RF Coercion/Mobilization: RBK-Ukraina reports that Russia is sending kidnapped Ukrainian children to the front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Alleged Chemical Weapon Use: The GUR message regarding RF use of chemical weapons. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for GUR claim, LOW for independent verification).
    • Vulnerability to Internal Fraud: General Prosecutor's Office reports exposing a scheme to seize funds under the guise of SMA treatment collection. RBK-Ukraina and Operatyvny ZSU report Nazariy Husakov suspected in fraud case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • IAEA Access to ZNPP Training Center Denied: RBK-Ukraina reports that the IAEA team was not allowed access. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Starlink Communication Disruption: Widespread reports confirm a global Starlink outage affecting communication. While largely resolved, the temporary disruption created a window of vulnerability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Political/Security Loss: The death of People's Deputy Yaroslav Rushchyshyn in a car accident represents a loss for Ukrainian political leadership. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Logistics/Transport Losses: Colonelcassad's video showing a destroyed Ukrainian KrAZ-260 military truck (potentially ammunition carrier) indicates a tactical setback for UAF logistics, potentially causing ammunition shortages or delays in resupply. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Communication Restoration Delay: Nikolaevsky Vanek reports "minus" for drones, but the underlying Starlink outage, though software-related, implies a temporary disruption that still needed to be overcome. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

  • Critical Needs (Air Defense): Continued and expedited supply of air defense systems and interceptor missiles. Germany potentially transferring two Patriot systems is positive. US approval for repair equipment for Bradley and HAWK systems. The confirmation of P-800 Onyx missile use against ground targets in Odesa highlights an urgent need for AD systems. New €340 million contract for HENSOLDT radars. New US aid package of $330M including AD systems. Immediate need for AD response to new ballistic missile threat from northeast and high-speed target on northeastern Poltava region. Immediate need for AD response to new drone threats in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, particularly Pavlohrad and Samara districts. Immediate need to counter five "mopeds" (drones) heading for Dnipro from Synelnykivskyi direction. Immediate need for AD response to new GAB launches and Shahed drone activity in Sumy Oblast. Immediate need for AD response to GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts. New information: UAF General Staff provides updated approximate enemy losses, including 2 AD systems, highlighting the ongoing attrition of Ukrainian AD assets (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU confirms 2 AD systems destroyed, reinforcing this need (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Counter-GAB Defenses: Urgent requirement for effective countermeasures against large guided bombs (FAB-1500/3000, UMPB-5). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Anti-Armor Assets (Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk Priority): Allocation of additional ATGM systems, FPV drones, and rapid deployment of scatterable mines is critical. Ongoing calls for drone donations (43rd OMBR, 32nd Steel Brigade, Шеф Hayabusa, STERNENKO's "Rusoriz" deficit, Operatyvny ZSU FPV transceiver request). The "previous daily report" recommends immediately reinforcing Chasiv Yar with ATGM teams and combat engineering assets. The Starlink outage significantly constrains UAF FPV drone operations. The destruction of a Ukrainian KrAZ-260 military truck by RF drones indicates a new constraint on UAF ground transport and ammunition logistics, requiring additional secure transport methods or air resupply. New information: Операция Z (Voenkor Russkaya Vesna) posts video appealing for thermal imagers for frontline soldiers, indicating a critical need for equipment directly supporting anti-armor and nighttime operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Civilian Protection: Increased frequency and severity of civilian infrastructure damage necessitate enhanced support for local emergency services. Expansion of forced evacuation in Donetsk Oblast. Oleksandr Vilkul's report on redirecting road repair funds to defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Counter-Offensive Capability: Sustained Western military aid required. Trump's reported agreement for EU to pay for US-produced weaponry is significant. Domestic scaling of explosives production is positive. New US aid package includes SAU. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Cybersecurity/IM Infrastructure: The incident with Alfa-Bank's app and discussions on WhatsApp/Telegram blocking in Russia highlight the ongoing cyber and information domain conflict. "Ukrzaliznytsya" strengthening document control for train boarding. Moscow News reports a new Telegram scam. DeepState's report of "all Starlinks down" indicates a critical constraint. The confirmed Starlink outage highlights a critical, immediate communication constraint. While largely resolved, the temporary Starlink outage exposed a vulnerability that requires robust contingency planning. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

  • RF Propaganda (Domestic): TASS promotes RF military successes. Repatriation of RF soldiers. Internal reporting on fraud and social issues. Rybar and WarGonzo actively promote RF territorial gains. RF reports casualties in Krasnodar. An-24 crash investigation focuses on technical issues. RF will use "neuro-profiling" on youth. FSB arrests of "extremists". Efforts to support SVO participants and families. TASS reports on Matviyenko's support for mandatory history exam. Kremlin bots spread warnings about WhatsApp blocking. "Two Majors" milbloggers post content to humanize soldiers. TASS reports Klishas calls to expand benefits for "civilian wives". TASS reports Matviyenko's claims about US election interference. Sever.Realii's report on increased treason cases. TASS reports rising gasoline prices. WarGonzo claims "Europeans are not eager to pay." Alex Parker Returns posts images and videos implying southern Russia is beautiful. New "Two Majors" video of RF personnel conveying gratitude. New TASS video of Belousov's meeting. Fighterbomber's video with a masked figure and "BOYCOTT. DON'T BE A PIG.". RF milbloggers discuss the need to review combat training programs. "ZONA SVO" video of an RF soldier criticizing bloggers. Gleb Nikitin's posts highlighting large humanitarian aid shipments. Two Majors' post criticizing "Soviet propaganda". Igor Artamonov's posts about young industrialists. TASS reports on Mars' efforts to resolve product shipment issues. TASS reports on Russian students winning medals. Старше Эдды's discussion of the "scandalous МВД-Медиа video." TASS video of Putin expressing condolences. Moscow news reports on a new skyscraper. AV БогомаZ's posts on a new ice palace. Rybar's post "Kaluga beats migrants". Wildberries & Russ statement on senator's proposal. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a document stating "Sanctions do not affect!". Два майора's video on veteran rehabilitation. НгП раZVедка posts a video showing Russian military personnel in front of a MiG-29. WarGonzo posts a video from "Aldan" (penal colony) unit. «Зона СВО» posts a video of a serviceman of the LNR Ministry of Defense apologizing. TASS reports GAZ will transition to a four-day work week. Два майора posts a meme suggesting the importance of learning history. TASS reports that Russia will begin creating children's playgrounds. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo with commentary about Hulk Hogan. Novosti Moskvy posts a photo with text about the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) stating tattoos are 'identifiers for the devil'. TASS reports the largest Russian metallurgical plant announced a significant collapse in profits. Операция Z posts a video featuring a Latvian MEP. Colonelcassad's "Satanists in AFU" content. TASS reports on widespread Ukrainian protests against Zelenskyy and NABU/SAP. Two Majors post disinformation that Zelenskyy's bill on NABU/SAP. Alex Parker Returns posts video about an Afghan migrant incident in Omsk. ASTRA reports a criminal case against pilots. Basurin o glavnom posts a political cartoon. Operatsiya Z posts video of paratroopers advancing on the Sumy front. «Зона СВО» discusses blaming "Akhmat". MoD Russia video of military engineers in LPR. TASS reports on Mikhail Gusman's release from TASS. MoD Russia's video of an AFU POW (Eduard Zver). Alex Parker Returns posts a video alleging Ukrainian politician Bezuhla attempted to expose an agent "Tsyrskyi". Two Majors discuss the issue of purchasing military uniforms abroad. Russian milbloggers are leveraging the Starlink outage. Colonelcassad posts photos implying Ukrainian internal dissent. TASS reports Putin congratulated employees of investigative bodies. TASS reports Putin emphasizing suppression of external attempts. Colonelcassad posts video of Belousov checking automated control systems. Операция Z posts photo message featuring Elon Musk. "Narodnaya militsiya DNR" posts a video promoting pro-Russian journalists. Операция Z posts a video featuring a man who identifies himself as a serviceman of the LNR Ministry of Defense apologizing for past statements, aiming to manage internal perceptions of military personnel. TASS reports that the perpetrators of the Crocus terrorist attack have been recognized as sane, signaling internal resolution of a major security event. RF milblogger "НгП раZVедка" reports "Good news from Poltava Oblast," which is a likely domestic propaganda attempt to imply successful RF operations in an area previously not highly active. TASS reports that the organizers of the "Crocus" terrorist attack acted in the interests of Ukraine, a direct and significant piece of domestic propaganda. Colonelcassad posts multiple photo messages and text regarding a "Sumy columbarium" and "Closing of America" in Ukraine, indicating another propaganda effort. Операция Z posts photo message about sharply increased youth interest in Orthodoxy, aiming to leverage religious sentiment for societal cohesion. TASS reports blogger Yuri Dud, declared internationally wanted, may be checked for treason, demonstrating ongoing intent to control information and punish perceived dissidents. Operation Z reports FSB has a new series "Spetsy" portraying heroic work of FSB special forces. RBK-Ukraina reports Trump signed a law canceling $9 billion in foreign aid and public broadcasting. Colonelcassad's video of a storm platoon commander promoting patriotic duty and military effectiveness. TASS reports new suspects may emerge in the case of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, part of the internal anti-corruption narrative. Nevinnomyssk Mayor's statement on 37 impacts with no damage is a clear attempt to control local narrative and downplay successful Ukrainian strikes, despite visual evidence of explosions at an industrial target. TASS reports over 200 people working at An-24 crash site in Tynda, part of domestic responsiveness narrative. Операция Z disseminates "Военкоры Русской Весны" content claiming Russia banned "Satanist-Nazis," enhancing internal control narratives. TASS reports on Armenian Union President's condemnation of Pashinyan, aiming to exploit regional political divisions. TASS posts a photo message showing the Cabinet of Ministers discussing preferential mortgages, reinforcing the narrative of governmental care for the population. TASS reports Moscow court arrested businessman Moshkovich's bank accounts. Два майора posts a photo about Starlink outage showing RF's need for its own satellite communication. New information: TASS posts photo message showing Indian PM Modi's achievement, demonstrating RF's awareness of and willingness to disseminate positive news related to friendly nations for domestic messaging (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF Propaganda (External/Hybrid): Milbloggers disseminate unverified battlefield claims. TASS disseminates negative reports about Ukrainian leadership. Claim of UAF "firefight" in Kremennaya. "Voenkor Kotenok" sows distrust. "Operation Z" reports "fierce clashes" on Cambodia-Thailand border. Peskov frames humanitarian discussions as positive. Alex Parker Returns' interpretation of a physiognomist analyzing Russian negotiator's motivations. TASS reports RF delegation returned from Istanbul. TASS reports Zakharova's statement regarding Russia's potential participation in the Helsinki Final Act conference. TASS cites Russian ambassador to Germany claiming Germany is preparing for full-scale conflict. TASS cites Matviyenko speculating on a Putin-Trump meeting. "Operation Z" amplifies criticisms of Zelenskyy by US Senator Graham and uses The Times report on NABU. TASS reports Hungarian FM Szijjarto's accusations. Alex Parker Returns posts hinting at antisemitism. "Operation Z" amplifies an FT article criticizing Yermak. "Operation Z" cites a Swiss editor claiming Western media "over-idealizes Ukraine." "Operation Z" reports ex-commander-in-chief of AFU, Zaluzhny, states war may last until 2034. Alex Parker Returns posts social media imagery attempting to discredit a Ukrainian journalist. Rybar's "Patriot in short supply" post. Colonelcassad's claim of eliminating Brazilian mercenaries. Operation Z posts a video claiming that former US Ambassador McFaul believes Ukrainians should have the right to refuse military service. WarGonzo posts an image claiming that Ukrainian HUR is increasing drone attacks. Operation Z posts about a British journalist calling for Zelenskyy's resignation. Alex Parker Returns reports Trump's statement on mediating Thailand-Cambodia conflict. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a graphic highlighting a Financial Times article claiming Yermak plays an increasingly presidential role. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo alleging French and EU officials attempted to dissuade Zelenskyy from signing a law on NABU and SAP. Z комитет + карта СВО posts a map. Военкор Котенок posts RF MoD claims on territorial liberation. TASS reports Trump denied intent to strip Musk's companies of subsidies. TASS reports Aliyev expressed condolences. TASS reports the Turkish Foreign Ministry expressed condolences. Kotsnews video frames the Cambodia-Thailand conflict as benefiting "third players." RBK-Ukraina reports a fake SVR claim. RBK-Ukraina reports that Russia is sending kidnapped Ukrainian children to the front. Alex Parker Returns posts a video of Hulk Hogan speaking at a rally. TASS reports on widespread Ukrainian protests against Zelenskyy and NABU/SAP. Two Majors posts a video on the Kherson direction showing drone footage. Alex Parker Returns' text "Military dictator Zelenskyy introduced a bill to the Rada". Colonelcassad's "Satanists in AFU" content. Kadyrov_95's video of volunteer departures. TASS reports RF "siloviki" claim UAF intends to increase grouping near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Butusov Plus posts a photo/video sharing a narrative of children fighting in Lisichansk. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a satirical photo. TASS reports Zelenskyy named the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) section of the front as the most difficult. MoD Russia's video of an AFU POW (Eduard Zver). Alex Parker Returns posts a video alleging Ukrainian politician Bezuhla attempted to expose an agent "Tsyrskyi". TASS reports on France's recognition of Palestine. Rybar's daily operational summary. TASS reports that Russia will be represented at the UN General Assembly. Alex Parker Returns posts video claiming Cambodia is actively using Czech RM-70 Vampir MLRS. Операция Z publishes an FT report on Zelenskyy and Yermak. TASS reports on alleged protests in 12 Ukrainian cities. TASS reports Israel condemns France's decision to recognize Palestine. Rybar's new post titled "ZSU on the border of Thailand" which is likely a false flag or disinformation attempt to link Ukraine to the Cambodia-Thailand conflict. TASS reports that Trump signed a law cutting $9 billion in foreign aid, particularly to foreign media (NPR and PBS), which RF will leverage to undermine international support for Ukraine, portraying a shift in US priorities or a reduction in overall US aid. TASS reports that the organizers of the "Crocus" terrorist attack acted in the interests of Ukraine, a potent false flag to erode international support for Kyiv. Операция Z directly disseminates content claiming a ban on "Satanist-Nazis" in Russia, which will be used for external messaging to discredit Ukraine. TASS reports on Armenian Union President's condemnation of Pashinyan, aiming to exploit internal political divisions for broader geopolitical gain. Два майора provides a morning summary, serving as a key channel for disseminating RF narratives to a broad audience. Рыбарь posts a chronicle of the Special Military Operation, another key channel for RF external messaging. RBK-Ukraina reports Rubio did not support Macron regarding his plans to recognize Palestine as a state, which RF will highlight as Western disunity. New information: Два майора cites MOD Russia's statement on 105 UAVs shot down over Russian regions, indicating a synchronized external propaganda push regarding alleged Ukrainian aggression (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ukrainian Information: Ukrainian authorities promptly report civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. UAF General Staff publishes daily RF loss statistics and combat engagement maps. Ukrainian channels highlight impact of attacks on Russian territory (Sochi). STERNENKO's call for drone donations. Return of POWs boosts morale. Addressing corruption concerns. SBU's prevention of terror attacks. Zelenskiy / Official reports on conversations with UK PM Starmer. RBK-Ukraina counters Congresswoman Greene's fake news. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Administration highlights receipt of new ambulances. The General Prosecutor's Office publicizes the detention of a deserting serviceman. Olexiy Biloshitsky posts videos of patrol police evacuating civilians. Butusov Plus provides graphic video of RF personnel elimination. Zviezdec Mangustu and RBK-Ukraina post urgent calls for drone donations. The Coordination Staff for POWs publicizes meetings. Zelenskiy / Official and RBK-Ukraina report on the approval of a draft law strengthening law enforcement and anti-corruption bodies. Oleg Syniehubov's photos of returned POWs. RBK-Ukraina's video on distinguishing civilians from combatants. The General Prosecutor's Office reports on stopping the work of a transnational hacker forum. Oleg Syniehubov posts a video discussing the operational situation in Kharkiv Oblast. General Prosecutor's Office publicizes the detention of an RF agent. Шеф Hayabusa posts a photo discussing why protests are forbidden during wartime. Бутусов ПЛЮС's graphic content criticizing a Russian soldier. KMVA reports a meeting with IMF. Архангел Спецназа posts a photo with text "Gamification". STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF (SSO A) engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. Zelenskiy / Official reports on a good conversation with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy proposed Germany participate in the expertise of the NABU draft law. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video showcasing historical Cossack texts. RBK-Ukraina posts a sarcastic meme about unmarried Russians. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy submitted a draft law to the Rada on NABU and SAP independence. NABU's support for the new draft law. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the urgency. The General Prosecutor's Office reports the head of Sumy Oblast Prosecutor's Office leads a group. RBK-Ukraina reports the death of Hulk Hogan. ОТУ "Харків" posts new drone footage. STERNENKO updates on the anti-corruption legislation. RBK-Ukraina posts photos from Odesa. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet. STERNENKO posts video of a large public gathering in Kyiv. Butusov Plus posts video of Igor Yakovenko. UAF General Staff publishes photos showing a young female athlete. Operatyvny ZSU posts a video featuring a UAF soldier asking for donations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a €340 million contract for HENSOLDT radars. GUR posts a video titled "NOW I WILL POISON WITH GAS". RBK-Ukraina reports a third day of protests in Kyiv. Zelenskiy/Official video confirms the new draft law. Zaporizhzhia ODA posts a video of Zelenskyy discussing the new draft law. KMVA posts a video of Zelenskyy discussing the new draft law. Oleg Syniehubov posts a video of Zelenskyy discussing the new draft law. Operatyvny ZSU posts a message asking for support. RBK-Ukraina reports that the IAEA team was not allowed access to the ZNPP training center. RBK-Ukraina and Operatyvny ZSU report Nazariy Husakov suspected in fraud case. STERNENKO confirms Husakov's suspicion. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy changed the composition of the Stavka. New WarGonzo video titled "Intelligence did not make a mistake." New photo messages from Arkhangel Spetsnaza claim "Another minor organized crime group caught." New US aid package of $330M approved. General Staff provides updated operational information as of 22:00 24.07.25. DeepState reports "all Starlinks down," which requires immediate assessment. New Shahed drones are moving towards Sumy city from the northeast. TASS reports on widespread protests in 10 Ukrainian cities. Alex Parker Returns claims RF forces have secured positions in Pokrovsk. TASS reports on France's recognition of Palestine. The global Starlink outage will continue to cause widespread communication disruption. RF will likely attempt to exploit this immediately. UAF needs to activate backup communication protocols. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports "Ilona, fix it faster." Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo message, a quote, "Independence will be gained." RBK-Ukraina posts photo message warning of RF reconnaissance drones. Operatyvny ZSU posts a photo message featuring Putin with derogatory commentary. RBK-Ukraina immediately reported the death of People's Deputy Yaroslav Rushchyshyn, indicating transparency and rapid information dissemination. RBK-Ukraina photo messages show reactions from "Holos" faction deputies to Rushchyshyn's death. RBK-Ukraina reports US State Department support for a complete ceasefire in Istanbul talks, highlighting international diplomatic efforts and promoting a narrative of peaceful resolution. Nikolaevsky Vanek immediately reported the 5 drones heading for Dnipro from Synelnykivskyi direction, demonstrating real-time information dissemination to the public. Nikolaevsky Vanek confirms all "mopeds" (drones) near Kremenchuk/Svitlovodsk are neutralized, indicating successful AD response and public communication. RBK-Ukraina reports Iran's decision to resume cooperation with IAEA on its nuclear program. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) over Sumy city. RBK-Ukraina publishes photos regarding GAB launches in Kharkiv. Operatyvny ZSU posts videos and photos confirming drone activity and explosions in Rostov and Tambov Oblasts, explicitly highlighting "good UAVs" causing a "restless night" for Russians, indicating a clear Ukrainian information operation to emphasize successful long-range strikes. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos on ongoing protests regarding the NABU/SAP reform bill, providing direct insight into Ukrainian public sentiment and internal political dynamics. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video of President Zelenskyy stating that everyone with access to state secrets must undergo lie detector tests, which aims to project transparency and commitment to anti-corruption efforts. Два майора posts a video depicting street protests in Ukraine, likely relating to "Геть, Ганьба и Зрада" (Away with Shame and Betrayal) slogans. New information: UAF General Staff provides updated approximate enemy losses (980 personnel, 2 AD systems), immediately disseminating impact of UAF operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU confirms 980 personnel and 2 AD systems destroyed, reinforcing this message (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports 980 Russian occupiers "minused" and 2 AD systems destroyed, rapidly disseminating UAF successes (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

  • Ukraine: Public remains under severe stress. Likely increase calls for more robust air defense. Resilience remains high. Differentiated air raid system may reduce panic. Continued civilian casualties will heighten anxiety and anger. Rising food prices may add to economic strain. The prevention of the Kyiv terror attack will boost public confidence. The explosion of the civilian dredge ship "Delta-Lotsman" will likely contribute to public anxiety. ASTRA's interview with a woman from Odesa market indicates significant public anger. Updated casualty figures in Cherkasy. Traffic restrictions in Kyiv. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration video showing housing repairs contributes to a narrative of resilience. RBK-Ukraina reports EU Commission's welcome for NABU/SAP reform. The nationwide air alarm. Forced evacuation in Donetsk Oblast. RBK-Ukraina reports on military registration for 17-year-olds. Attack on Norwegian humanitarian base in Mykolaiv. ASTRA reports 42 injured in Kharkiv. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports forced evacuation in Donetsk Oblast. New ballistic missile threat from northeast will cause further stress. Claims of RF advances in Chasiv Yar, if widely confirmed, will be a significant blow to morale. STERNENKO's report on "Rusoriz" deficit may cause concern. Serhiy Lysak's report on continued shelling of Nikopol. Oleksandr Vilkul's report on reduced road repairs. RBK-Ukraina reports Russia sending kidnapped Ukrainian children to the front will evoke outrage. "Ukrzaliznytsia" strengthening document control. Butusov Plus video showing Mirnohrad in ruins. ASTRA provides multiple photos of destruction and rescue efforts in Odesa. STERNENKO posts video of a large public gathering in Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina reports a third day of protests in Kyiv. General Prosecutor's Office reports exposing a fraud scheme. RBK-Ukraina reports IAEA team was not allowed access to ZNPP training center. RBK-Ukraina and Operatyvny ZSU report Nazariy Husakov suspected in fraud case. TASS reports on widespread Ukrainian protests against Zelenskyy and NABU/SAP. The global Starlink outage will have a severe negative impact on public morale. The death of People's Deputy Yaroslav Rushchyshyn is a morale blow, especially given the current political climate. New drone threats to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, particularly Pavlohrad, will heighten public anxiety in central Ukraine. The immediate report of five "mopeds" (drones) heading for Dnipro from Synelnykivskyi direction by Nikolaevsky Vanek will cause real-time heightened anxiety. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) over Sumy city, causing further anxiety for residents. Continued GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts will continue to cause significant anxiety and public concern. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos showing ongoing protests in Kyiv regarding the NABU/SAP reform bill, indicating continued public discontent and impact on morale regarding governmental transparency. Два майора posts a video depicting street protests in Ukraine with strong anti-government slogans ("Геть, Ганьба и Зрада"), directly reflecting negative public sentiment. New information: Oleksandr Vilkul reports Kryvyi Rih situation controlled, which provides a localized boost to morale (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russia: Public in affected areas experiences alarm due to drone attacks. Return of RF military personnel boosts morale. Official messaging attempts to project stability. Civilian flight disruptions in Sochi and railway worker casualties increase frustration. An-24 crash will generate significant domestic concern and mourning. Confirmed civilian casualties in Krasnodar will increase anger. Arrest of former governor and Bryansk Vice-Governor highlights corruption. Public gathering in Kaluga. FSB arrests of citizens calling for military assassinations. Alfa-Bank app failure and WhatsApp/Telegram blocking discussions. A firefighter's death and a woman's body found in the Novoshakhtinsk shopping center fire. News of potential teacher job losses. The strike at the Turkish NPP built by Rosatom. Rising gasoline prices. Searches in Khimki administration and charges against Bryansk Vice-Governor. Alex Parker Returns' posts implying summer beauty. New TASS confirmation of 5 railway workers killed in An-24 crash. New Moscow news video of flooded streets. Sever.Realii reports detention of ex-Wagner mercenary. TASS reports Vice-Governor of Bryansk Oblast not admitting guilt. Moscow News reports "demographic special forces" formation. New Health Ministry amendments. Conviction of former Klintsy City Council Deputy for fraud. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki report on court denying compensation. The declaration of three days of mourning in Khabarovsk Krai. TASS reports that investigators are seeking the arrest of three Interior Ministry employees. Север.Реалии reports that lawyer Maria Bontsler remains in custody. TASS reports Putin's condolences. ASTRA reports the death of two female railway workers in Sochi. Rybar's post "Kaluga beats migrants". Wildberries & Russ statement on the proposed ban. Sever.Realii reports FSB detained nine Russians. ASTRA reports "Andrey Sakharov Institute" and "Peace. Progress. Human Rights" movement declared "undesirable". Два майора's video on veteran rehabilitation. TASS reports the arrest of Aleksandr Bogashov. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki reports a military police officer beating an elderly serviceman. TASS reports GAZ moving to a four-day work week. Novosti Moskvy reporting on metro disruptions. The arrest of a factory employee. TASS reports the arrest of Gleb Trifonov. RBK-Ukraina reports the largest Russian metallurgical plant announced a significant collapse in profits. Novosti Moskvy reporting 83% of Russians are religious. TASS reports of protests against Zelenskyy's NABU/SAP law. Два майора posts a video depicting Special Forces Marine Detachment. Alex Parker Returns posts a video depicting an incident in Omsk. ASTRA reports a criminal case against pilots. Basurin o glavnom posts a political cartoon. Operatsiya Z posts video of paratroopers advancing on the Sumy front. «Зона СВО» discusses blaming "Akhmat". MoD Russia video of military engineers in LPR. TASS reports on Mikhail Gusman's release from TASS. MoD Russia's video of an AFU POW (Eduard Zver). Alex Parker Returns posts a video alleging Ukrainian politician Bezuhla attempted to expose an agent "Tsyrskyi". Two Majors discuss the issue of purchasing military uniforms abroad. Russian milbloggers leveraging the Starlink outage. Colonelcassad posts photos implying Ukrainian internal dissent. TASS reports baggage delays on Turkish Airlines flights. Public perception of safety and state effectiveness will be impacted by the reports of the seizure of property from a "Crocus" terrorist attack accomplice and the redirection of railway cargo due to incidents in Rostov Oblast. New reports of drone activity in Novocherkassk and Yelets will increase public anxiety in border regions. TASS's statement that Crocus perpetrators are sane will aim to provide a sense of legal closure but may also fuel public anger. RF milblogger "НгП раZVедка" reports "Good news from Poltava Oblast," which aims to boost morale but implies ongoing RF offensive activity, potentially raising concerns among the public for a wider war. The declaration of a "red" level drone threat for Lipetsk Oblast will heighten anxiety in a new RF region. TASS reports that the organizers of the "Crocus" terrorist attack acted in the interests of Ukraine, a direct attempt to link Ukraine to terrorism. TASS reports the "carpet" plan in North Ossetia will cause public alarm. Операция Z posts photo message about sharply increased youth interest in Orthodoxy, indicating an attempt to rally public support through religious narratives. ASTRA reports Krasnodar Krai Operative Headquarters reports drone attack. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train, injuring two, confirming public impact. НгП раZVедка reports Nevinnomyssk is reflecting the most massive attack on the North Caucasus during the entire SVO, this will likely cause further public anxiety. TASS reports blogger Yuri Dud, declared internationally wanted, may be checked for treason, indicating a continued crackdown on internal dissent within RF. Temporary flight restrictions in 8 RF airports due to UAV threats. Operation Z promotes a new FSB series "Spetsy" portraying heroic work of FSB special forces. TASS reports new suspects may emerge in the case of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, indicating ongoing internal management. Nevinnomyssk Mayor's statement claiming 37 impacts with no losses, despite visual evidence of a strike, is an attempt to control public perception and mitigate panic. НгП раZVедка's "Our victory, stand down" in Nevinnomyssk also aims to reassure the public. TASS reports over 200 people working at An-24 crash site in Tynda, which will be framed as a positive, organized state response. RBK-Ukraina reports 45 flights delayed in Sochi airport, which could cause public frustration. Оперативны ZSU posts videos confirming drone activity and explosions in Rostov and Tambov Oblasts, which RF authorities will need to manage public sentiment around. TASS reports the Cabinet of Ministers is considering preferential mortgages, indicating a focus on social welfare that aims to improve public sentiment. TASS reports Moscow court arrested businessman Moshkovich's bank accounts, which could impact public trust in the economy and rule of law. Два майора posts a photo about Starlink outage showing RF's need for its own satellite communication, likely to manage public concerns about technological vulnerabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF Military Personnel: Public appeals for drones and Starlink. Dry rations investigation. Arkhangel Spetsnaza's struggle to collect donations. Calls from "Филолог в засаде" for direct feedback. Butusov Plus's report on a military widow. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts about a military beating children. Alex Parker Returns posting a video of soldiers thanking for humanitarian aid. "Two Majors" video showing RF personnel expressing gratitude. WarGonzo video of soldier losing a foot. "ZONA SVO" video of an RF soldier criticizing bloggers. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki report on court denying compensation. Gleb Nikitin's post about providing additional equipment. Two Majors' video showcasing a tactical medical kit ("HEALER" IFAK). Butusov Plus's graphic posts critical of a Russian soldier. Два майора's video on veteran rehabilitation. WarGonzo posts a video from "Aldan" (penal colony) unit. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki reports a military police officer beating an elderly serviceman. «Зона СВО» posts a video of an LNR Ministry of Defense serviceman apologizing. The previous daily report notes costly assaults by RF units on the Avdiivka axis. Kadyrov_95's video of volunteer departures. Два майора posts a video depicting Special Forces Marine Detachment. Alex Parker Returns posts a video depicting an SVO veteran's involvement. TASS reports Balitsky awarded a convicted Major General Popov. Putin's praise for a veteran application. «Зона СVO» discussing blaming "Akhmat". Два майора's report on the Investigative Committee's case against MoD employees. ASTRA video of the officer discussing missile fragments near Grozny. MoD Russia's video of an AFU POW (Eduard Zver). DeepState's report that "all Starlinks are down". The global Starlink outage. Two Majors noting Starlink's use by "the enemy." Colonelcassad's video showing a destroyed Ukrainian KrAZ-260 military truck (potentially ammunition carrier) is likely intended to boost RF military morale by showcasing successful drone strikes against UAF logistics. Colonelcassad's video of a storm platoon commander emphasizes the professionalism and resilience of RF soldiers. Colonelcassad posts videos showing effective strikes by specific RF military units, which likely serves to boost morale and a sense of effectiveness among military personnel. Colonelcassad posts videos showing FPV drone as RPG carrier, which could boost morale by demonstrating offensive innovation. Colonelcassad posts videos showing FPV drone operators from 5th Separate Guards Tank Brigade hitting enemy logistics, demonstrating effective operations which can boost morale. New information: Операция Z (Voenkor Russkaya Vesna) posts video appealing for thermal imagers for frontline soldiers, suggesting a continued need for specific equipment at the unit level, which impacts individual soldier morale and effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

  • China-EU Relations (RF narrative): TASS reports on Xi Jinping's call. Оперативний ЗСУ reports EU-China Summit did not yield significant progress. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • US-Ukraine Relations (RF narrative): "Operatsiya Z" amplifies criticism of Zelenskyy by US Senator Graham. TASS reports Peskov's comment that Kyiv "begs for weapons." Operation Z posts a video claiming that former US Ambassador McFaul believes Ukrainians should have the right to refuse military service. РБК-Україна reports Trump denied intent to strip Musk's companies of subsidies. Alex Parker Returns' posts using Hulk Hogan to spread anti-Ukrainian sentiment. TASS reports that Trump signed a law to cut $9 billion in foreign aid, particularly to foreign media (NPR and PBS), which RF will leverage to undermine international support for Ukraine, portraying a shift in US priorities or a reduction in overall US aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • US-EU-Ukraine Weapons Funding: Operatyvny ZSU reports Donald Trump stating agreement where EU will fully pay for US-produced weaponry. Germany potentially transferring two Patriot systems is positive. US approval for repair equipment for Bradley and HAWK systems. Zelenskiy / Official reports a good conversation with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy proposed Germany participate in the expertise of the NABU draft law. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that German HENSOLDT will produce TRML-4D and SPEXER 2000 radars for Ukraine for €340 million. New US aid package of $330M approved. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Istanbul Negotiations: Zelenskiy/Official confirms RF was offered immediate ceasefire. Peskov frames humanitarian discussions as positive. Alex Parker Returns' interpretation of a physiognomist analyzing Russian negotiator's motivations. TASS reports RF delegation returned from Istanbul. TASS reports Zakharova's statement regarding Russia's potential participation in the Helsinki Final Act conference. RBK-Ukraina reports US State Department support for a complete ceasefire in Istanbul talks, indicating continued international diplomatic engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russia-Uzbekistan Relations: Putin and Mirziyoyev's phone call expresses satisfaction. Kadyrov_95 posts a video congratulating Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • US Cybersecurity: TASS reports the US Department of Homeland Security suffered a hacker attack on Microsoft SharePoint. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Southeast Asian Border Conflict: Escalation of clashes between Cambodia and Thailand. Russian ambassador advises tourists to avoid border. RBK-Ukraina reports Cambodia calls on Thailand to cease hostilities. Rybar's new post emphasizes the "escalation." Alex Parker Returns posts a statement attributed to Trump. Kotsnews video frames the Cambodia-Thailand conflict as benefiting "third players." TASS states RF expresses concern. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a satirical photo. Colonelcassad posts a map and photos detailing the escalation. Alex Parker Returns posts video claiming Cambodia is actively using Czech RM-70 Vampir MLRS against Thailand. TASS reports the UN Security Council will hold a meeting on July 25 regarding the escalation between Cambodia and Thailand. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • UK-Ukraine Relations: Zelenskiy/Official spoke with UK PM Starmer, thanking for Rammstein leadership and new sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russia-Azerbaijan Relations: Alex Parker Returns and TASS reports Zakharova's statement that the release of detained Russian citizens by Azerbaijan. ASTRA posts photo of Azerbaijani publication identifying three military personnel allegedly involved in downing an AZAL plane. TASS reports Aliyev expressed condolences. Kotsnews reports Mikhail Gusman's dismissal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russia-Armenia Relations: TASS reports Pashinyan confirmed Armenia's intention to continue work in the EAEU. TASS reports Pashinyan expressed condolences. TASS reports Armenian Union President Ara Abrahamyan states Pashinyan's call to seize Catholicos Garegin II's residence devalues the Armenian Apostolic Church and is a strategic mistake. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Hungary-Ukraine Relations: TASS reports Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjarto stated Hungary will not supply weapons to Ukraine. Operation Z posts video of Hungarian FM Szijjarto criticizing Ukraine's potential EU accession. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Swiss-Ukraine Relations (RF Narrative): "Operation Z" amplifies criticism from a Swiss editor on the "over-idealization" of Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF narrative).
  • EU-Ukraine Relations: RBK-Ukraina reports the EU Commission "welcomed" the preparation of a new bill regarding NABU/SAP activities. RBK-Ukraina also reports that Merz and Macron agreed to discuss the NABU/SAP scandal. RBK-Ukraina reports that Macron and Costa dissuaded Zelenskyy from signing the law on NABU and SAP. RBK-Ukraina reports over 40 OSCE countries are launching the "Moscow Mechanism" due to torture of Ukrainian prisoners. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Netherlands and 40 OSCE countries are initiating an investigation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Lithuania-NATO Relations: Vooin DV reports Lithuanian Armed Forces Commander General Raimundas Vaikšnoras stated the country has prepared infrastructure for additional US and NATO troops. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Turkey-Russia Relations: TASS reports a Russian citizen sought for embezzlement of 600 million rubles has been deported. TASS reports the Turkish Foreign Ministry expressed condolences. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • IMF-Ukraine Relations: KMVA reports a meeting with International Monetary Fund representatives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • IAEA-Ukraine Relations: RBK-Ukraina reports that the IAEA team was not allowed access to the ZNPP training center. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • France-Palestine Relations: TASS and RBK-Ukraina report France will recognize the State of Palestine in September. TASS reports Israel condemns France's decision to recognize Palestine. RBK-Ukraina reports Rubio did not support Macron regarding his plans to recognize Palestine as a state. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Iran Nuclear Program: WSJ reports Iran decided to resume cooperation with IAEA on its nuclear program. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

  1. Sustained Deep Strike Campaign with Escalated Lethality and Enhanced Airfield Security: RF will continue to launch high-speed UAV (high volume), missile, and increasingly, GAB (including FAB-3000/UMPB-5) attacks at key Ukrainian oblasts to exhaust UAF AD, inflict damage, and degrade morale. Targeting of fortified strongpoints and urban areas with FAB-3000/UMPB-5 will become more frequent. Civilian areas remain at high risk. Casualties in Krasnodar will fuel RF resolve for retaliation. RF will continue targeted drone strikes against UAF C2 and UAV control points, and potentially logistics nodes. RF will continue to claim strikes on Ukrainian MIC. Colonelcassad's reference to UMPB D-30SN Missile System implies development or deployment of new guided munitions systems. New ballistic missile threat from northeast will persist. New threat of aviation weapon use in Synelnykivskyi district. Kharkiv will remain a primary target. The AFU Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetropats Oblast. The confirmed use of P-800 Onyx anti-ship missiles for ground attack against Odesa signals a persistent and high-priority threat. UAF Air Force reports continued enemy reconnaissance and strike UAV activity across Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Poltava. RF may continue using or be accused of using chemical weapons, as indicated by the GUR message. RF is likely to conduct further cross-border aerial operations. New Shahed drones are currently moving towards Sumy city. New missile threats to Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, and drone threats to Poltava Oblast, indicate immediate continuation of deep strike campaign. RF claims aviation strike on a UAF HQ in Kherson. RBK-Ukraina reports drone attacks on Rostov Oblast. Traffic over the Crimean Bridge has been suspended, likely due to security incidents related to these strikes. New reports from ASTRA confirm residents of Novocherkassk are again reporting a large number of drones and explosions. Igor Artamonov warns of a UAV attack threat in Yelets and Yelets district, indicating RF's continued expectation of Ukrainian drone strikes on its territory. New groups of enemy strike UAVs are moving from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk, with specific reports of 5 drones heading for Dnipro from Synelnykivskyi direction, indicating an immediate continuation of targeted drone strikes in central Ukraine. RF has declared a "red" level drone threat for Lipetsk Oblast. ASTRA reports "carpet" plan (anti-drone measure) implemented in North Ossetia and other SKFO regions due to UAV threat, indicating heightened AD for critical areas. Temporary flight restrictions in 8 RF airports are indicative of continued expectation of UAV attacks. RF will likely increase security measures around airfields due to potential Ukrainian strikes. TASS reports "Grad" MLRS strikes in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued conventional support for deep strike. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train, injuring two, showing continued willingness to risk civilian targets to defend against Ukrainian drones. Continued GAB launches on Sumy Oblast. НгП раZVедка's claim of "Our victory, stand down" in Nevinnomyssk, while contradicted by visual evidence of explosions at an industrial plant, suggests RF's continued focus on defensive AD operations. The mayor's statement on Nevinnomyssk further reinforces this. Continued GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts. Continued flight delays in Sochi indicate ongoing air defense activity and impacts on civilian aviation. Operatyvny ZSU posts videos and photos highlighting drone attacks on Rostov and Tambov Oblasts, which signals continued intent for long-range strikes into RF. TASS reports that flight restrictions at 8 airports have been lifted, implying that RF anticipates the drone threats to be resolved, but this could quickly change. Igor Artamonov reports "yellow level" drone threat lifted, implying a return to normal operational tempo in specific RF border areas. New information: ASTRA reports Timashevsk railway station in Krasnodar Krai without power after UAV attack, 2 train passengers injured (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports railway station building in Peschanokopskoye, Rostov Oblast, damaged by UAV strike (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO posts video of drone attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant, mayor claims "over 20 hits," confirming continued deep strikes (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • INDICATORS: Continued air raid alerts; reports of explosions/casualties in urban centers; active AD engagements; confirmation of further Shahed/missile/GAB attacks; RF tactical aviation highly active; continued RF claims of targeting UAF C2/UAV/MIC infrastructure; RF claims of disrupting Ukrainian logistics with FABs; observed launches of P-800 Onyx or similar high-speed missiles against coastal targets; further reports or accusations of chemical weapon use; new reports of cross-border aviation strikes. Continued suspension of Crimean Bridge traffic. Continued reporting of drone activity in Rostov and other border Oblasts. New air raid alerts and drone sightings in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro, Pavlohrad, Samara, Synelnykivskyi districts). Continued flight restrictions in Russian airports. Confirmed Grad MLRS strikes on UAF UAV control points. Reports of explosions/fire at industrial sites within RF. Increased flight delays/cancellations in RF airports, especially those near recent attacks. Continued reports of drone activity and damage in Tambov Oblast, particularly at the powder plant. lifted drone alerts in specific RF border areas.
  2. Intensified Mechanized Offensive on Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk Axes with Probes on Other Axes: RF forces will continue and likely intensify coordinated company-to-battalion sized mechanized assaults in Chasiv Yar and Donetsk (Pokrovsk axis), supported by heavy indirect fire and GABs, attempting tactical breakthroughs. RF will continue localized probes and assaults in Kharkiv/Sumy directions and may increase pressure on Zaporizhzhia axis. RF will increasingly use "super-small assault groups," employing FPV drones. RF milblogger photo from Kupyansk direction confirms continued interest. "Two Majors" claims on Konstantinovka axis indicate continued offensive pressure. Операция Z claims on Novoekonomichne and Dmytrov (Mirnohrad) further indicate persistent offensive pressure. Colonelcassad's claims of extensive advances within Chasiv Yar increase the likelihood. The previous daily report states a high likelihood of a major ground assault on Chasiv Yar within 48-72 hours. The shift towards small-unit probing attacks with FPV drone swarms and EW suppression will likely continue across the front. Vooin DV posts photo/video claiming 51st Guards Combined Arms Army liberated Novoekonomichne. RF milblogger "Operatsiya Z" claims Russian army broke into Kupyansk. TASS reports RF "siloviki" claim UAF intends to increase grouping near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Z комитет + карта СVO's map of Krasnoarmeyskoye direction indicates continued offensive and defensive preparations. Operatsiya Z's video of paratroopers advancing on the Sumy front. Colonelcassad's South-Donetsk landscape photos confirm continued combat. TASS reports Zelenskyy named the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) section of the front as the most difficult. Alex Parker Returns claims RF forces have secured positions in Pokrovsk. Rybar's latest operational summary with maps reinforces continued ground offensive pressure. The Starlink outage's temporary nature likely means RF did not fully capitalize on this, but will still attempt to leverage residual disruption. RF milbloggers are already highlighting this outage. RF milblogger "Operatsiya Z" posts drone footage implying continued offensive operations on the Zaporizhzhia front. НгП раZVедка reports "Good news from Sumy direction," indicating an immediate intent for offensive action. Colonelcassad video shows drone footage with thermal imaging, documenting strikes on buildings, vehicles, a communication tower, and military assets. Rybar's video showing a main battle tank transport, while unlocated, indicates ongoing military vehicle movements that could support offensive operations. Colonelcassad's video showing a destroyed Ukrainian KrAZ-260 military truck (potentially ammunition carrier) confirms RF's continued effectiveness in disrupting UAF logistics on the ground, likely aiding their offensive efforts by limiting UAF resupply. TASS reports that the liberation of Novoekonomichne allows RF to put pressure on AFU near Krasnyi Lyman and "seriously complicate" enemy logistics, highlighting a strategic intent for RF ground operations. RF Army reports cleaning up two settlements near Krasnoarmeysk in DNR. Colonelcassad's video of a storm platoon commander detailing offensive tactics further solidifies RF intent for sustained ground pressure. Colonelcassad posts videos showing specific RF units (336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade and the 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Division of the 5th Army Group "Vostok") conducting strikes on enemy manpower and equipment, indicating ongoing, localized offensive operations. TASS reports Russian fighters improved tactical position near Petrovsky, taking about 3.5 km of the LNR administrative border under fire control, reinforcing the likelihood of continued tactical advances. New information: UAF General Staff provides updated approximate enemy losses (980 personnel), which suggests continued heavy fighting on the ground axes (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU confirms 980 personnel losses (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • INDICATORS: Increased frequency/scale of mechanized ground assaults; higher rates of armor/IFV losses; increased tactical aviation activity/GAB launches in Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk; RF claims of further territorial advances; continued Ukrainian appeals for drone support; observed increase in small-unit probing attacks supported by FPV drones and EW.
  3. Intelligence Preparation for Southern Offensive/Strikes: RF will sustain or increase ISR and ELINT collection over the Orikhiv-Robotyne salient and surrounding areas. This activity will likely precede standoff strikes against identified UAF C2, logistics, or air defense nodes within next 48-72 hours. Ground offensive less likely immediately, remains mid-term possibility. The temporary Starlink outage may lead RF to increase ISR/ELINT to assess the full impact on UAF communication and potentially identify new targets of opportunity. RF reconnaissance UAVs detected north of Zaporizhzhia city confirm continued ISR preparation for this axis. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs north of Zaporizhzhia and in central Sumy Oblast. The movement of new groups of enemy strike UAVs from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk indicates an immediate execution of deep strike operations in the southern and central sectors, likely a culmination of recent ISR. Five "mopeds" (drones) reported flying towards Dnipro from Synelnykivskyi direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • INDICATORS: Continued high volume of RF ISR UAV sorties; detection of intensified ELINT signatures; subsequent increase in precision strikes in Orikhiv sector; continued ground operational pause in this sector. New drone threats and sightings in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  4. Enhanced Domestic Defense and Information Operations, Continued Sabotage Efforts: RF will maintain and potentially enhance AD and counter-UAS measures in its territory. Ukrainian long-range UAV attacks on RF territory will persist. RF will continue robust information campaigns to control domestic narrative, including addressing internal issues (e.g., An-24 crash, Novoshakhtinsk fire, teacher unemployment, rising gasoline prices, corruption arrests, Khimki searches, Domodedovo Prosecutor, Bryansk Capital Construction Head, Klintsy Deputy, Chelyabinsk Vice-Governor, Volgograd deputy, Interior Ministry officials, Aleksandr Bogashov, Baza editor-in-chief, Menzhinsky, MoD corruption case, new police arrests, minor organized crime groups, МВД-Медиа video controversy, veteran rehabilitation, Gusman dismissal, police arrests in Baza case, "Crocus" accomplice property seizure, perpetrators deemed sane), portraying crackdowns, and implementing youth patriotism programs. RF will likely continue public disciplinary actions and apologies from servicemen. Economic pressures such as GAZ's four-day work week will be managed with domestic messaging. RF will use the Cambodia-Thailand conflict to deflect attention from Ukraine. The largest Russian metallurgical plant's profit collapse may prompt further economic management decisions. Estonia's report of EW systems moving closer to NATO indicates continued risk of EW deployments. RF will likely continue to disseminate disinformation about Ukrainian leadership and reforms. RF will continue to use internal incidents and social tensions for propaganda purposes. RF will continue cyber-related information operations. RF will continue to deny IAEA access to key ZNPP facilities. TASS will continue to report on internal Ukrainian political issues. RF will continue to exploit external geopolitical events. The temporary Starlink outage will immediately leverage the Starlink outage in their information operations, despite its rapid resolution. Colonelcassad posts photos implying Ukrainian internal dissent. TASS reports Russia will be represented at the UN General Assembly. RBK-Ukraina reports drone attacks on Rostov Oblast. Traffic over the Crimean Bridge has been suspended, which will be framed as a successful defense against Ukrainian attacks. Operations Z's video of a serviceman apologizing will be used to demonstrate internal accountability. Rybar's "ZSU on the border of Thailand" post will be leveraged to link Ukraine to regional instability. TASS reporting the UN Security Council meeting on Cambodia-Thailand will further amplify this. TASS reporting Trump's signing of a law to cut foreign aid will be used to reinforce the domestic narrative of declining Western support for Ukraine and emphasize RF's strategic success. RF has declared a "red" level drone threat for Lipetsk Oblast, indicating an active state of homeland defense. TASS reports that the organizers of the "Crocus" terrorist attack acted in the interests of Ukraine, serving as a powerful information operation to galvanize domestic support against Ukraine. Colonelcassad posts multiple propaganda messages regarding Ukraine and the US. TASS reports a "carpet" plan has been introduced in North Ossetia, indicating continued homeland defense. RF will continue to use religious mobilization (e.g. youth interest in Orthodoxy) to build domestic cohesion and support for the conflict. RF will also leverage the WSJ report on Iran's renewed cooperation with IAEA to demonstrate their own diplomatic influence or shift international discourse. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train, injuring two, providing fresh material for domestic narrative of Ukrainian attacks. Moscow Region expects fog. НгП раZVедка reports Nevinnomyssk is reflecting the most massive attack on the North Caucasus during the entire SVO, this will be heavily utilized in domestic propaganda to demonstrate resilience and Ukrainian aggression. TASS reports blogger Yuri Dud, declared internationally wanted, may be checked for treason, indicating a continued crackdown on internal dissent within RF. Temporary flight restrictions in 8 RF airports due to UAV threats. Operation Z promotes a new FSB series "Spetsy" portraying heroic work of FSB special forces. TASS reports new suspects may emerge in the case of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, indicating ongoing internal management. Nevinnomyssk Mayor's claims of no damage, despite visual evidence of a strike, will be part of this narrative management. TASS reports over 200 people working at An-24 crash site in Tynda, which will be used to demonstrate state capability and control. Операция Z disseminates "Военкоры Русской Весны" content claiming Russia banned "Satanist-Nazis," enhancing internal control narratives. TASS reports on Armenian Union President's condemnation of Pashinyan, aiming to exploit regional political divisions. Operatyvny ZSU posts videos and photos highlighting drone attacks on Rostov and Tambov Oblasts, which RF authorities will need to manage public sentiment around. TASS posts a photo message showing the Cabinet of Ministers discussing preferential mortgages, demonstrating an intent to address domestic economic concerns. TASS reports Mishustin stated RF is forming a closed-loop economy. TASS reports Moscow court arrested businessman Moshkovich's bank accounts. Два майора posts a photo about Starlink outage showing RF's need for its own satellite communication. New information: ASTRA reports Timashevsk railway station in Krasnodar Krai without power after UAV attack, 2 train passengers injured, providing new material for domestic messaging on Ukrainian aggression and the need for AD (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports railway station building in Peschanokopskoye, Rostov Oblast, damaged by UAV strike, providing new material for domestic messaging (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). STERNENKO posts video of drone attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant, which RF will use to claim widespread Ukrainian aggression (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). MOD Russia claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight, which will be heavily emphasized domestically to demonstrate AD effectiveness and Ukrainian threat (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

  1. Massed GAB/Missile Strike Overwhelming Key Defenses Concurrent with Exploitation of Starlink Outage's Aftermath: RF could launch highly coordinated, numerous ballistic/cruise missile and GAB (including FAB-3000/UMPB-5) attack targeting multiple critical infrastructure/military nodes simultaneously across several Ukrainian oblasts, aiming to overwhelm AD in specific sectors. Given casualties in Krasnodar and high volume of drone launches, RF may demonstrate more devastating retaliation. This could include further attacks on energy infrastructure. New ballistic threat from northeast could be part of this. The confirmed deployment of P-800 Onyx missiles for ground attack increases the risk. The alleged use of chemical weapons (GUR message) could be part of this MDCOA. While the Starlink outage was largely resolved, the temporary disruption could still be exploited, or RF could perceive an ongoing window of opportunity to strike while UAF adapts. New missile threats to Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, and drone threats to Poltava Oblast, indicate immediate potential for such a massed strike. RF claims aviation strike on a UAF HQ in Kherson. RBK-Ukraina reports drone attacks on Rostov Oblast, suggesting RF might respond with escalated strikes. Traffic over the Crimean Bridge has been suspended, potentially indicating an ongoing or imminent large-scale Ukrainian strike attempt that RF may respond to in an MDCOA scenario. New reports of drone activity in Novocherkassk and Yelets suggest ongoing targeting of RF territory, which could prompt a retaliatory mass strike. The confirmed movement of new groups of strike UAVs towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, including specific targeting of Pavlohrad and Dnipro (5 drones reported), creates a critical window for such an MDCOA, potentially overwhelming AD in the central region before UAF fully recovers from the Starlink disruption or implements new protocols. RF has declared a "red" level drone threat for Lipetsk Oblast. TASS reports that the organizers of the "Crocus" terrorist attack acted in the interests of Ukraine; this accusation could serve as a casus belli for a particularly severe retaliatory strike in an MDCOA scenario. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train, injuring two, validating RF's claim of being under attack and potentially leading to a more aggressive response. Continued GAB launches on Sumy Oblast. The confirmed Ukrainian drone attacks on the Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant and Tambov Powder Plant will likely provoke a severe, possibly retaliatory, mass strike by RF targeting Ukrainian industrial or critical infrastructure. Continued GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts indicate RF maintains this capability for massed strikes. Heightened flight delays in Sochi due to drone activity signal continued RF AD efforts and potential for retaliatory strikes. Operatyvny ZSU posts videos and photos highlighting drone attacks on Rostov and Tambov Oblasts, which, if met with a massed RF strike, would escalate the current MDCOA. New information: ASTRA reports Timashevsk railway station in Krasnodar Krai without power after UAV attack, 2 train passengers injured, confirming civilian impact that could be used to justify escalation (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports railway station building in Peschanokopskoye, Rostov Oblast, damaged by UAV strike, further increasing pressure for retaliation (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). MOD Russia claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight, indicating a significant number of Ukrainian drones aimed at RF territory, increasing the justification for a retaliatory MDCOA (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • INDICATORS: Simultaneous detection of multiple missile/UAV types from various vectors; sustained waves of attacks over several hours; targeting of specific energy facilities, railway junctions, or identified UAF command posts/reserve concentrations; observed massing of ground attack aviation; confirmed use of chemical agents. Further degradation of communication networks; delayed or uncoordinated UAF AD responses. Prolonged suspension of Crimean Bridge traffic. Widespread air raid alerts and confirmed impacts in Dnipropetrovsk and surrounding oblasts. Public statements from RF leadership or state media explicitly linking large-scale strikes to "retaliation for Crocus." Prolonged and widespread flight delays/cancellations in RF airports. Confirmed damage to Tambov Powder Plant, followed by a retaliatory RF strike.
  2. Decisive Breakthrough on Chasiv Yar Axis Leveraging Residual Starlink Disruption or Rapid Exploitation: RF forces could consolidate and launch a multi-battalion mechanized offensive on Chasiv Yar axis with overwhelming tactical aviation (including FAB-3000/UMPB-5) and heavy MLRS support, aiming for significant operational breakthrough that could collapse a section of the defensive line. Colonelcassad's claims of extensive advances within Chasiv Yar increase the likelihood. The "previous daily report" highlights the imminent major ground assault on Chasiv Yar by elite VDV units. While the Starlink outage was resolved, RF might attempt to exploit any lingering communication or coordination issues at the tactical level, or launch immediately if they perceive a window of opportunity before UAF fully adapts. Colonelcassad's video of a storm platoon commander detailing offensive preparations highlights the intent for aggressive ground action. New information: UAF General Staff provides updated approximate enemy losses (980 personnel), indicating that despite heavy losses, RF is likely still committed to offensive operations on key axes (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU confirms 980 personnel losses (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • INDICATORS: Massing of armor and infantry formations; pre-assault artillery/air preparation sustained for several hours; attempts to breach multiple defensive lines simultaneously; increased RF special forces activity; significant increase in RF claimed territorial gains on this axis. Reports of communication failures or delays in UAF units in the Chasiv Yar sector; reduced UAF FPV drone activity in the area.
  3. Simultaneous Multi-Axis Offensive with Diversionary Attacks and Coerced Populations, Coupled with Crocus Allegations: RF could launch coordinated ground offensives on two or more axes (e.g., Chasiv Yar/Pokrovsk and renewed push in Kharkiv/Kupyansk or Southern axis) to stretch UAF reserves and prevent reinforcement, coupled with increased sabotage/terrorist activities in rear areas (e.g., Kyiv, Odesa) to force resource reallocation. This MDCOA also includes the unprecedented, confirmed tactic of sending kidnapped Ukrainian children to the front. The temporary Starlink communication disruption could have created a window that RF attempts to exploit, assuming UAF C2 is still disrupted. The direct accusation from TASS linking Ukraine to the "Crocus" attack could be used as a propaganda justification for this escalated, multi-front attack. (CONFIDENCE: LOW-MEDIUM).
    • INDICATORS: Confirmation of sustained multi-battalion attacks on widely separated axes; increased movement of RF operational reserves; simultaneous GAB/MLRS preparatory fires on multiple fronts; increased attempted terror attacks/sabotage in major Ukrainian cities; confirmed use of forced child soldiers/human shields in combat zones; widespread and prolonged communication outages (e.g., Starlink); explicit RF public statements justifying escalated attacks based on "Crocus" connection.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

  • Next 6-12 Hours (Until 251200Z JUL 25): High probability of continued UAV and missile threats, particularly in southern, central, and eastern regions, and application of GABs (including UMPB-5) in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy, and Kherson. Expect continued RF ground pressure and claimed advances in Chasiv Yar, Donetsk, and Kharkiv/Sumy Oblasts, with increased emphasis on mechanized assaults on Chasiv Yar/Pokrovsk axis, supported by FPV drones and small unit probes. Active AD engagements and emergency responses will continue. RF AD will remain active against Ukrainian drone attacks on its territory, potentially causing further civilian disruption/casualties, specifically in Rostov Oblast, Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, and Nevinnomyssk. Intensified ISR/ELINT activity on Southern Axis will persist, with reconnaissance UAVs likely across multiple axes (Zaporizhzhia, Sumy). New ballistic threat from northeast is active. Cargo traffic restrictions in Kyiv will remain in effect due to heat. RF milblogger video confirms ongoing drone operations in Kherson. RF milblogger video confirms active combat and destruction in Konstantinovka direction. RF MoD summary expected. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeast direction. New enemy UAVs detected in Sumy, northern Kharkiv, and southwest of Dnipro, and now northeastern Poltava. New GAB launches expected on Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Sumy. New missile threat for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Colonelcassad's claims of advances in Chasiv Yar and Yablonovka indicate an immediate, significant ground threat. The AFU Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetropats Oblast. TASS reports the arrest of the Baza editor-in-chief and the Minister of Property for Chelyabinsk Oblast, and Menzhinsky in Chelyabinsk Oblast. "Ukrzaliznytsia" intensifying document checks at train boarding points will affect civilian travel. Colonelcassad's "Satanists in AFU" propaganda will be disseminated. UAF Air Force reports continued enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Bilopillia (Sumy), northern Chernihiv, and border of Kharkiv/Poltava. STERNENKO reports Shahed launches from 4 directions. UAF Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast from the north, currently flying south, and near Bilopillia, heading south. New groups of enemy strike UAVs reported on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, course west/southwest. RF milblogger "Operatsiya Z" claims Russian army broke into Kupyansk. Operatsiya Z posts video of paratroopers advancing on the Sumy front. Colonelcassad posts a video of representatives of military groups discussing the special military operation. STERNENKO posts a video demonstrating a drone operation. RBK-Ukraina reports a frontline community in Sumy Oblast was attacked, with one fatality. New threat of enemy strike UAVs from the northeast for Cherkasy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports new GAB launches onto Donetsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports new GAB launches onto Kharkiv Oblast from the east. New RF-claimed tactical aviation strike on an FSB base in Bryansk Oblast. New video from "Two Majors" purports to show the 155th Separate Guards Naval Infantry Brigade operating in the Sumy direction. New photo messages from ОТУ "Харків" depict military vehicles in a night setting. New video from Colonelcassad shows Putin's speech at the commissioning ceremony for the 'Knyaz Pozharsky' nuclear submarine. New FSB videos from Colonelcassad show the interrogation of a detained individual in Kherson. TASS reports two more police officers arrested in connection with the Baza Telegram channel case. RBK-Ukraina reports IAEA team was not allowed access to ZNPP training center. RBK-Ukraina and Operatyvny ZSU report Nazariy Husakov suspected in fraud case. STERNENKO confirms Husakov's suspicion. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy changed the composition of the Stavka. New WarGonzo video titled "Intelligence did not make a mistake." New photo messages from Arkhangel Spetsnaza claim "Another minor organized crime group caught." New US aid package of $330M approved. General Staff provides updated operational information as of 22:00 24.07.25. DeepState reports "all Starlinks are down," which requires immediate assessment. New Shahed drones are moving towards Sumy city from the northeast. TASS reports on widespread protests in 10 Ukrainian cities. Alex Parker Returns claims RF forces have secured positions in Pokrovsk. TASS reports on France's recognition of Palestine. The global Starlink outage was largely resolved, but RF will likely attempt to exploit any residual effects immediately. UAF needs to activate backup communication protocols. Traffic over the Crimean Bridge remains suspended. The death of People's Deputy Yaroslav Rushchyshyn will be a key event in the Ukrainian information space. TASS reports that the perpetrators of the Crocus terrorist attack have been recognized as sane. TASS reports the UN Security Council will hold a meeting on July 25 regarding the escalation between Cambodia and Thailand. New threat of strike UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi, Pavlohrad, Samara districts), with new groups moving from Zaporizhzhia, indicates immediate deep strike activity and will necessitate rapid AD response. RF milblogger "НгП раZVедка" reports "Good news from Poltava Oblast," which may indicate immediate RF tactical gains or successful strikes in that area. Colonelcassad's video of a destroyed Ukrainian KrAZ-260 military truck implies continued effective RF drone operations against UAF logistics. TASS reporting on Trump signing the law to cut foreign aid will be used by RF for immediate information operations, especially targeting international support for Ukraine. TASS reports five "mopeds" (drones) heading for Dnipro from Synelnykivskyi direction. TASS also reports the Starlink outage was software-related and largely resolved. TASS also reports the organizers of the "Crocus" terrorist attack acted in the interests of Ukraine. TASS reports RF Army is cleaning up two settlements near Krasnoarmeysk. TASS reports a "carpet" plan has been introduced in North Ossetia. Colonelcassad posts video of a Terek Cossack battalion volunteer speaking on his motivation. Операция Z posts photo message about sharply increased youth interest in Orthodoxy in Russia. WSJ reports Iran decided to resume cooperation with IAEA on its nuclear program. TASS reports that UAV debris in Kuban damaged a passenger train, injuring two, indicating immediate continuation of attacks on RF territory. Moscow Region expects fog. НгП раZVедка reports Nevinnomyssk is reflecting the most massive attack on the North Caucasus during the entire SVO, this will lead to increased RF information operations about Ukrainian aggression. TASS reports blogger Yuri Dud, declared internationally wanted, may be checked for treason, indicating a continued crackdown on internal dissent within RF. Temporary flight restrictions in 8 RF airports due to UAV threats. Operation Z reports FSB has a new series "Spetsy" portraying heroic work of FSB special forces. Colonelcassad's video of a storm platoon commander signals immediate offensive intent on ground axes. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) over Sumy city. НгП раZVедка claims "Our victory, stand down" in Nevinnomyssk, suggesting this timeframe will see a continuation of Ukrainian deep strikes into RF territory and RF attempts to manage the narrative. Visual evidence of explosions at Nevinnomyssky Azot confirms successful Ukrainian targeting. TASS reports new suspects in Bryansk Oblast Simonenko case. RBK-Ukraina reports Nevinnomyssk Mayor's statement on drone impacts. UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southeastern direction. TASS reports over 200 people working at An-24 crash site in Tynda. RBK-Ukraina reports 45 flights delayed in Sochi airport. Операция Z disseminates "Военкоры Русской Весны" content claiming Russia banned "Satanist-Nazis." TASS reports on Armenian Union President's condemnation of Pashinyan. UAF Air Force confirms GAB launches on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts. Colonelcassad posts videos showing immediate tactical strikes by RF units against enemy manpower and equipment. Оперативний ЗСУ posts videos and photos confirming immediate drone attacks on Rostov and Tambov Oblasts. TASS reports Russian fighters improved tactical position near Petrovsky, taking about 3.5 km of the LNR administrative border under fire control, indicating immediate tactical advances. TASS reports all flight restrictions at 8 airports in southern Russia and Tambov have been lifted, implying a swift RF response to recent drone threats and a return to normal air traffic management. Два майора provides a morning summary, reflecting the immediate operational picture. Рыбарь posts a chronicle of the Special Military Operation for 24 July, providing a summary of recent operations. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos on ongoing protests regarding the NABU/SAP reform bill, indicating immediate internal political developments. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video of President Zelenskyy stating that everyone with access to state secrets must undergo lie detector tests, signaling immediate governmental action on security and anti-corruption. TASS reports Moscow court arrested businessman Moshkovich's bank accounts. Два майора posts a photo about Starlink outage showing RF's need for its own satellite communication. RBK-Ukraina reports Rubio did not support Macron regarding his plans to recognize Palestine as a state. New information: ASTRA reports Timashevsk railway station in Krasnodar Krai without power after UAV attack, 2 train passengers injured (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU reports railway station building in Peschanokopskoye, Rostov Oblast, damaged by UAV strike (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). MOD Russia claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). AV БогомаZ reports 25 enemy UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast overnight (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). UAF General Staff provides updated approximate enemy losses (980 personnel, 2 AD systems) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operatyvny ZSU confirms 980 personnel and 2 AD systems destroyed (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). RBK-Ukraina reports 980 Russian occupiers "minused" and 2 AD systems destroyed (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Oleksandr Vilkul reports Kryvyi Rih situation controlled (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). TASS reports Khusnullin believes key rate could be lowered to 10-12% by year-end (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Decision Point (UAF): Sustain AD readiness and maintain public alert systems. Prioritize allocation of mobile AD assets to areas under immediate missile/UAV/GAB/P-800 Onyx threat, particularly Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro, Pavlohrad, Samara, Synelnykivskyi districts) and Sumy Oblast, and now Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts for GABs. Continue rapid response to civilian impacts. Immediately verify and counter RF claims of territorial gains and false flag reports, especially "good news from Poltava Oblast." Immediately reinforce Chasiv Yar with ATGM/FPV drone teams and reserves. Implement strict EMCON for units in Orikhiv sector and actively counter RF ISR. Maintain heightened vigilance for hybrid threats. Proactively communicate true situation of civilian casualties. Enforce Kyiv cargo traffic restrictions. Continue forced evacuation of civilians. Leverage the newly operational Israeli early warning system in Kyiv. Reallocate C-UAS assets to the northeast. Address the reported sending of kidnapped Ukrainian children to the front. Assess the claimed Lancet interception. Intensify counter-propaganda efforts. Monitor and potentially leverage public gatherings in Kyiv. Confirm and disseminate information on the new HENSOLDT radar contract. Prepare for possible RF chemical weapon use. Publicize international investigation into RF torture of POWs. Continue to highlight RF obstruction of IAEA at ZNPP. Investigate fraud cases related to charitable collections. Analyze changes to Stavka composition. Immediately assess residual Starlink communication disruption and implement backup communication protocols. Develop adaptive tactics for drone operations in a degraded communications environment, specifically for FPV drone attacks on RF logistics/transport. Publicly address and counter RF information operations related to US foreign aid cuts. Prepare for RF information operations exploiting the death of the People's Deputy. Publicly refute RF claims linking Ukraine to the "Crocus" attack. Prepare messaging on Iran's nuclear cooperation with IAEA, linking it to broader geopolitical stability and potentially RF influence. Consider enhanced security for airfields and critical infrastructure due to temporary RF airport closures. Prioritize targeting of RF industrial facilities (e.g., chemical plants, powder plants) within RF territory. Monitor and counter new RF information operations, including the "Satanist-Nazi" ban and regional political interference (Armenia). Continue to expose RF efforts to control public narrative through economic measures like preferential mortgages. Leverage internal RF judicial actions (Moshkovich's accounts) as evidence of internal instability.
  • Next 24-48 Hours (Until 261200Z JUL 25): RF will likely continue to probe Ukrainian AD with missile and UAV attacks, and increase FAB-3000/UMPB-5 deployment. Expect persistent GAB and intensified heavy MLRS deployments on eastern axes, directly supporting escalating ground operations, particularly in Chasiv Yar. RF will continue information operations, including new narrative framing for "assault groups" and domestic patriotism efforts. Internal situation within Russia will continue to be managed by RF state apparatus, including the aftermath of the Crocus investigation conclusion and accusations against Ukraine. Standoff strikes likely on Southern Axis following ISR. Continued efforts by UAF to counter domestic subversion and terror. RF MoD will continue to issue daily summaries. Belousov's focus on digital and technological development may lead to further announcements. Potential gasoline export ban may affect domestic Russian sentiment. Further evidence of economic strain in Russia may emerge. RF will likely continue public disciplinary actions and apologies from servicemen. Economic pressures such as GAZ's four-day work week will be managed. RF will use the Cambodia-Thailand conflict (including the UN Security Council meeting) to deflect attention from Ukraine. The largest Russian metallurgical plant's profit collapse may prompt further economic management decisions. Estonia's report of EW systems moving closer to NATO indicates continued risk of EW deployments. RF will likely continue to disseminate disinformation about Ukrainian leadership and reforms. RF will continue to use internal incidents and social tensions for propaganda purposes. RF will continue cyber-related information operations. RF will continue to deny IAEA access to key ZNPP facilities. RF will continue to utilize POW interviews for propaganda purposes. Widespread Starlink disruption could persist or be countered. RF will likely capitalize on any prolonged Starlink disruption to intensify operations across all domains. RF will likely capitalize on any prolonged Starlink disruption to intensify operations across all domains. RF will continue attempts to sow discord within Ukraine, potentially leveraging the death of the People's Deputy. Traffic over the Crimean Bridge remains suspended, indicating continued RF vulnerability and potential for ongoing or renewed Ukrainian strike attempts. New drone threats in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are likely to persist, potentially leading to increased civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. RF will continue to leverage information about US foreign aid cuts to undermine international support. RF will continue to push the narrative of Ukraine's involvement in the "Crocus" attack, leading to a heightened information warfare environment. RF will continue religious mobilization efforts and monitor Iran's nuclear cooperation with IAEA to bolster its international narrative. Continued temporary flight restrictions in RF airports are possible. TASS reports Amur Oblast Governor Vasily Orlov is in Tynda to assess the An-24 crash, highlighting a continued need for RF to address internal crises. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Decision Point (UAF): Continue monitoring RF deep strike patterns and adapt AD deployment, with focus on GAB defense and energy/MIC infrastructure, and specifically for P-800 Onyx missile profiles, and new drone routes into central Ukraine and now Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv for GABs. Prepare for enhanced hardening/dispersal measures. Intensify counter-information efforts, particularly against false flag narratives and RF reframing. Exploit RF vulnerabilities in PSYOPs. Review/adjust defensive lines on Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk axes. Prepare for potential standoff strikes on Southern Axis. Expedite discussions with partners on delivery timelines for US-produced weapons and Patriot transfer. Continue scaling up domestic explosives production. Maintain high alert for domestic subversive and terror activities. Strengthen security for civilian maritime operations. Publicize and leverage efforts to combat corruption. Continue to emphasize military registration for 17-year-olds. Engage with international financial partners. Prioritize restoration of Starlink or rapid deployment of alternative secure communication solutions. Develop adaptive tactics for drone operations in a degraded communications environment. Actively counter RF attempts to exploit the People's Deputy's death. Continue to counter RF information operations regarding US foreign aid. Develop immediate messaging strategies to counter RF claims linking Ukraine to the "Crocus" attack. Continue to monitor and respond to RF attempts to exploit religious or international events like Iran's nuclear program cooperation. Continue to monitor and respond to RF attempts to exploit regional political divisions (Armenia). Monitor and publicize RF internal economic policies (e.g., closed-loop economy) and their potential impacts. Leverage international diplomatic disunity regarding Palestine recognition.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

  1. RF FAB-3000 M-54 / UMPB-5 Capabilities and Deployment:
    • Gap: Current inventory and production rate of FAB-3000/UMPB-5 and UMPK. Precise launch parameters and EW vulnerabilities. Dedicated Su-34 units or airfields specialized for FAB-3000/UMPB-5 deployment. Confirmation of FAB strike on Vovcha River bridge. Specific details on the UMPB D-30SN missile system. Confirmation of claimed FAB-500 strikes on the МВД building in Kharkiv. Specific details on the P-800 Onyx land-attack capability. Confirmation and full assessment of alleged Ukrainian tactical aviation strike on FSB base in Bryansk Oblast. Verification of "Tamer of 'Himars'" claim. Confirmation of ZALA Lancet destruction of 105-mm L119 Howitzer. Verification of threat from aviation weapon use in Sumy, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. Confirmation of the claimed strike on a UAF HQ in Kherson. Full assessment of drone attacks on Rostov Oblast, including weapon types and targets, and their relation to the Crimean Bridge suspension. Specific details on the reported drone activity and explosions in Novocherkassk, Yelets, Lipetsk, and Nevinnomyssk, including precise damage assessment and weapon types. Confirmation of the "good news from Poltava Oblast" reported by RF milbloggers, and what it specifically refers to (e.g., successful strike, claimed advance). Verification of TASS reports on UAV debris in Kuban damaging a passenger train and injuring two people, including weapon type. Verification of claimed drone strikes on the Tambov Powder Plant, including damage assessment and weapon type. Verification of Colonelcassad's FPV-RPG drone and its operational use/effectiveness.
    • Collection Requirements: SIGINT/ELINT on RF tactical aviation communications and radar signatures. IMINT/GEOINT of airfields in Belgorod, Voronezh, Kursk, Rostov, Krasnodar, Lipetsk Oblasts, and Bastion-P launch sites in Crimea. TECHINT on recovered FAB-3000/UMPB-5 fragments/UMPK components, and P-800 Onyx debris. HUMINT from captured RF aircrews. Ground ISR to verify bridge damage and МВД building damage. Open source intelligence on the UMPB D-30SN. Verify Bryansk FSB base strike via satellite imagery and OSINT. Collect and analyze any data related to the "Tamer of 'Himars'" claim. Conduct detailed battle damage assessment (BDA) of L119 Howitzer strike. Continue to monitor for specific indicators of aviation weapon use in Sumy, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. Conduct BDA on Kherson UAF HQ. Monitor Russian social media and official statements regarding Rostov Oblast attacks and Crimean Bridge status. Conduct thorough BDA in Novocherkassk, Yelets, Lipetsk, and Nevinnomyssk, focusing on industrial sites. Deploy ISR assets (UAVs, HUMINT) to monitor Dnipropetrovsk Oblast for drone activity and impacts, and attempt to identify launch patterns and drone types. Investigate the "good news from Poltava Oblast" via local OSINT and UAF ground reports to determine its veracity and nature. Conduct BDA on the train damage in Kuban. Continue to monitor GAB launches in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts and conduct BDA. Conduct BDA at the Tambov Powder Plant via satellite imagery and OSINT. Analyze video of FPV-RPG drone for technical capabilities and potential threat.
  2. RF Mechanized Force Composition and Intent (Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Axes):
    • Gap: Full order of battle, specific unit assignments (beyond 76th VDV and 98th VDV), and current readiness of RF mechanized groupings. Logistical sustainment for prolonged high-tempo operations. Verification of claimed river crossing at Melovoe, Kharkiv, and advances in Zaporizhzhia (Kamyanske/Plavni, Stepnohirsk) and on Konstantinovka (Aleksandro-Kalinovo, Novoekonomichne, Zverevo, Dmytrov, Yablonovka). Crucially, verification of claimed liberation of Shevchenko and Pivdenny micro-districts and envelopment of Zemlianky micro-districts in Chasiv Yar by RF forces. Confirmation of "super-small assault groups" and their effectiveness, as well as the widespread use and impact of FPV drones on RF tactical advances. Precise location and impact of RF Giatsint-S strikes in South Donetsk direction. Full extent of enemy EW capabilities and locations. Verification of claimed RF breakthrough into Kupyansk. Verification of UAF intent to increase grouping near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Full assessment of tactical activities of 155th Separate Guards Naval Infantry Brigade in Sumy direction. Verification of alleged satellite imagery of "Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoye" areas. Verification of Alex Parker Returns' claim of RF forces securing positions in Pokrovsk. Verification of Rybar's latest operational maps regarding specific FLOT changes and claimed advances. Confirmation of UAF engineering and defensive constructions in Kramatorsk district. Assessment of reported Akhmat Special Forces activities near Belgorod. Confirmation of Colonelcassad's claim of identifying 3,500 foreign mercenaries. Verification of "good news from Sumy direction" reported by НгП раZVедка. Verification of Colonelcassad's detailed video from Donbas "Rubikon," specifically the destruction of identified targets and their military significance. Verification of the Rybar video showing a main battle tank transport, including location and unit identification. Full assessment of the tactical effectiveness and impact of "Grad" MLRS strikes in Kharkiv Oblast, as reported by TASS. Confirmation and detailed assessment of the effectiveness of strikes by the 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade and the 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Division of the 5th Army Group "Vostok", including unit disposition and targets. Verification of the claimed fire control over 3.5 km of the LNR administrative border near Petrovsky. Confirmation of specific logistics targets and impact of 5th Separate Guards Tank Brigade FPV drone strikes in South-Donetsk direction.
    • Collection Requirements: IMINT/GEOINT for force concentrations, movement, and logistics nodes. SIGINT on RF ground unit communications. HUMINT from UAF frontline units and captured RF personnel. OSINT monitoring of RF milblogger maps. Ground ISR/HUMINT to verify claims, especially in Chasiv Yar and Kupyansk. Verify activity of 155th Naval Infantry Brigade. Analyze new satellite imagery. Ground ISR and HUMINT to verify UAF defensive construction details. Investigate Akhmat Special Forces operations near Belgorod. Seek to verify RF claims about foreign mercenaries. Conduct ground ISR in Sumy direction to verify reported "good news." Detailed BDA and analysis of Colonelcassad's "Rubikon" video. Analyze Rybar's tank transport video for operational context. Conduct BDA on the destroyed KrAZ-260 truck and gather intelligence on its cargo and unit affiliation. Assess RF drone capabilities for targeting such vehicles in transit. Conduct detailed logistical analysis on the Krasnyi Lyman sector following Novoekonomichne. Verify Marochko's claim through OSINT and ground reports. Conduct BDA on claimed Grad strikes in Kharkiv. Conduct detailed BDA and intelligence gathering on the effectiveness and impact of the strikes by the 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade and the 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment. Use IMINT/GEOINT to verify claimed territorial changes and fire control in Luhansk. Conduct BDA and assess logistics impact of 5th Separate Guards Tank Brigade FPV drone strikes in South-Donetsk direction.
  3. Objective of RF ISR/ELINT Surge (Southern Axis):
    • Gap: Is intensified ISR for future deep strike campaign or ground offensive? Identification of specific target sets and expected timeline for RF action. Verification of new reconnaissance UAVs detected north of Zaporizhzhia city and in central Sumy Oblast. Confirmation of the specific targets and intent behind the new groups of enemy strike UAVs moving from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk. Specific intent for the five "mopeds" (drones) heading for Dnipro from Synelnykivskyi direction.
    • Collection Requirements: SIGINT to intercept RF intelligence analysis/targeting communications. ELINT to characterize RF ground-based C2/AD systems targeted. IMINT/GEOINT for subtle changes in RF ground force dispositions. HUMINT from local populations. Continue to monitor northern Zaporizhzhia and central Sumy for further ISR and any subsequent strike activity. Monitor Dnipropetrovsk Oblast for new drone activity and impacts, linking them to recent ISR efforts. Analyze RF drone flight paths for patterns indicative of specific target types (e.g., energy, military installations).
  4. Assessment of Odesa/Cherkasy/Mykolaiv/Zaporizhzhia/Kharkiv/Konstantinovka/Poltava/Nikopol/Sumy/Dnipro Attack Damage and Weapon Type:
    • Gap: Full assessment of damage. Definitive identification of weapon system(s) used and precise impact points. Verification of RF claims regarding destruction of "weapon depots" in Odesa port and "Bayraktar factory" in Mykolaiv. Confirmation of missile type (e.g., cluster/shrapnel) used in Cherkasy. Detailed damage assessment and weapon types used in Mykolaiv (including Norwegian humanitarian base), Zaporizhzhia (TPP/university sports hall), and Kharkiv/Konstantinovka residential areas. VERIFICATION OF CLAIMED UAF DRONE ATTACK ON AMBULANCE IN ZAPORIZHZHIA. Causes and perpetrators of "Delta-Lotsman" vessel explosion. Confirmation of Kherson substation explosion. Damage to residential buildings, medical facility, and lyceum in Nikopol. Full assessment of damage and weapon type in Sumy Oblast frontline community (Znob-Novhorodske). Verification of RM-70 Vampir MLRS use in Cambodia-Thailand conflict for potential parallels. Confirmation of strike on Kremenchuk. Verification of new missile threat in Chernihiv Oblast. Verification of new high-speed target on northeastern Poltava region. Verification of new strike UAV threats in Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. Verification of reconnaissance UAVs in southern Sumy, northern Chernihiv, and northern Kharkiv Oblasts. Full damage assessment of new drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi, Pavlohrad, Samara districts, and Dnipro city). Verification of "mopeds" (drones) neutralization in Kremenchuk/Svitlovodsk.
    • Collection Requirements: Forensics by local authorities, detailed damage assessment reports. IMINT/GEOINT of strike locations. TECHINT on drone/missile fragments. OSINT monitoring of local eyewitness accounts and official Ukrainian statements. Specific fact-finding mission/investigation regarding the ambulance strike claim and "Delta-Lotsman" incident. Verify Kherson substation. Monitor Chernihiv Oblast for missile impact. Monitor Poltava Oblast for high-speed target impact. Conduct BDA in Kharkiv and Donetsk on any new strike UAV incidents. Continue to monitor for reconnaissance UAV activity and its impact. Conduct rapid BDA in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast following new drone attacks to identify impact points, civilian casualties, and determine weapon type. Confirm Kremenchuk/Svitlovodsk AD effectiveness.
  5. RF Internal Stability and Military Morale:
    • Gap: Extent to which RF units rely on non-governmental funding. Pervasiveness of dry ration quality issues. Impact of high-level arrests and arrests of personnel for "betrayal" on RF internal stability/morale. Impact of social tensions, An-24 crash, Novoshakhtinsk fire, and potential teacher job losses on public trust. Effectiveness of "neuro-profiling" on youth. Impact of crackdowns on dissenting voices within milblogger community. Impact of rising gasoline prices. Impact of Belousov's focus on digital and technological development on internal military perception. Internal dialogue among RF milbloggers regarding combat training deficiencies and accountability. Impact of X5/Mars dispute. Impact of МВД-Медиа video controversy. Impact of Ministry of Health amendments on sick leave, and the Wildberries & Russ statement. Impact of veterans with prosthetic limbs on broader public perception. Extent of use of penal colony units and their effectiveness/morale. Impact of GAZ's four-day work week on domestic economy. Impact of the reported sending of kidnapped Ukrainian children to the front. Impact of Russian metallurgical plant's profit collapse. Impact of criminal case against pilots flying low over beach. Impact of Balitsky awarding a convicted Major General Popov. Impact of the officer's comments regarding missile fragments near Grozny. Impact of Mikhail Gusman's dismissal. Effectiveness of AFU POW interviews as propaganda. Full extent of debate regarding military uniform procurement. Impact of global Starlink outage on RF military morale. Verification and analysis of UVB-76 transmissions. Assessment of Colonelcassad's claims of NABU protests and "Nazis insulting Zelenskyy." Impact of baggage delays at St. Petersburg airport. Verification of "Russian Spring" claims regarding Zelenskyy and Yermak. Impact of RZD cargo redirection on military and civilian logistics. Verification of RF claims regarding drone attacks and AD responses in Rostov Oblast, Lipetsk Oblast. Assessment of the LNR MoD serviceman's apology video, its intended audience, and effectiveness. Full assessment of the Crocus terrorist attack investigation conclusion and its domestic impact. Impact of US foreign aid cuts reported by TASS on domestic Russian perceptions of Ukraine's future and Western support. Public perception of the RF claim that "Crocus" organizers acted in Ukraine's interest. Impact of the "carpet" plan in North Ossetia on public perception and internal security. Impact of renewed interest in Orthodoxy on youth and its military implications. Assessment of the "Terek" Cossack battalion volunteer's narrative and its effectiveness for recruitment/morale. Verification of TASS claims regarding Yuri Dud and treason. Assessment of FSB's new "Spetsy" series, its target audience, and effectiveness. Impact of An-24 crash investigation and Governor's travel to Tynda on public confidence. Impact of UAV debris injuring civilians in Kuban. Impact of fog in Moscow Oblast. Impact of "Satanist-Nazi" ban on internal security and public perception. Impact of Pashinyan's conflict with the Armenian Church on RF's regional political standing. Impact of the Cabinet of Ministers discussing preferential mortgages on public sentiment. Impact of Moscow court arresting businessman Moshkovich's bank accounts. Assessment of the public sentiment regarding RF's need for its own satellite communication due to Starlink outage.
    • Collection Requirements: OSINT monitoring of additional RF social media channels for similar appeals. HUMINT from captured RF personnel/defectors. SIGINT on internal RF logistics communications. OSINT on RF domestic media for continued reporting on corruption and social control measures. OSINT monitoring of internal discourse regarding the An-24 crash, treatment of dissenting military family members, and economic/social issues impacting public sentiment, including fuel prices. OSINT on discussions related to military training and literature within milblogger communities. SIGINT on RF military communications to assess immediate impact of Starlink outage on morale. TECHINT on UVB-76 signal content. OSINT analysis of RF propaganda targeting Ukrainian internal dissent. OSINT on public reaction to baggage delays. Monitor RZD statements and actual logistics on the ground. Verify Russian social media and official statements regarding Rostov Oblast, Lipetsk Oblast attacks. Analyze LNR MoD serviceman's video for propaganda efficacy. Monitor domestic Russian media for public reaction to the Crocus investigation conclusion and the associated claims linking Ukraine. Assess public reaction to the "carpet" plan in North Ossetia. Conduct OSINT on youth religious movements in RF and their links to military service. Analyze volunteer narratives for key themes and effectiveness. Conduct OSINT to verify allegations against Yuri Dud and assess the broader implications of such high-profile accusations on RF internal dynamics and dissent. Monitor FSB's "Spetsy" series for propaganda themes and reach. Monitor local news in Amur Oblast for updates on An-24 crash and public reaction. Gather public statements and social media content regarding the UAV debris in Kuban. Monitor weather patterns affecting military operations. Analyze "Satanist-Nazi" ban propaganda for its impact on recruitment and internal cohesion. Monitor Armenian media for public and political reactions to Pashinyan's actions against the Church. Monitor RF state media for public discussion on preferential mortgages. Monitor Russian financial news and social media for reactions to Moshkovich's asset freeze. Monitor RF social media for discussion on the need for a sovereign satellite communication system.
  6. RF Subversion/Terror Network in Ukraine:
    • Gap: Full extent of RF deep-state infiltration and remaining active cells. Specific methodologies and targets for future terror/sabotage operations. Confirmation of RF claims of capturing Ukrainian spotters/agents in occupied territories (e.g., Kherson). Effectiveness of the newly operational Israeli early warning system in Kyiv. Identification of the origin and spread of Telegram account hacking scams targeting Ukrainian users. Verification of GUR's accusation of RF chemical weapon use and identification of any specific agents/locations. Confirmation of allegations regarding Nazariy Husakov's fraud related to charitable collections. Full assessment of implications of Zelenskyy's changes to the Stavka of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. Clarification of Alex Parker Returns' video regarding Bezuhla and "Tsyrskyi". Impact of Starlink outage on RF agent communication within Ukraine. Assessment of the impact of People's Deputy Yaroslav Rushchyshyn's death on internal security. Correlation of new drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with known or suspected RF agent activity in the region. Impact of RF claims linking Ukraine to "Crocus" attack on internal security and counter-intelligence efforts. Assessment of the impact of protests against the NABU/SAP bill on overall internal security and RF exploitation efforts. Verification of the implications and public perception of Zelenskyy's mandate for lie detector tests for state secrets access.
    • Collection Requirements: HUMINT from apprehended agents. SIGINT on suspected RF agent communication channels. FORENSICS on recovered IEDs/sabotage equipment. OSINT on RF propaganda regarding internal Ukrainian destabilization efforts and counter-intelligence successes. TECHINT on the Israeli early warning system's capabilities and integration. OSINT on cybersecurity forums and channels to track Telegram scam origins and methods. Chemical forensics on alleged chemical weapon sites/victims. Investigate Husakov case. Monitor changes in Stavka. SIGINT on any changes in RF agent communication patterns following Starlink outage. Analyze the context and implications of the People's Deputy's death. Investigate any potential human intelligence or agent activity preceding new drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to identify patterns of RF subversion in target selection. Monitor RF state media for any additional claims linking Ukraine to terrorism. Monitor protests via OSINT to identify organizers, participants, and specific grievances, assessing potential for escalation or RF manipulation. Monitor public and official reactions to Zelenskyy's lie detector mandate for any counter-propaganda opportunities or internal dissent.
  7. RF EW System Deployment in Baltic/NATO Border Region:
    • Gap: Specific types and quantities of EW systems moved. Precise locations and operational ranges. Intent behind this redeployment.
    • Collection Requirements: IMINT/GEOINT of border regions and potential deployment sites in Belarus and western Russia. ELINT to characterize new EW emissions. SIGINT on RF communications regarding these deployments. HUMINT from border regions.
  8. UAF Counter-Drone Effectiveness:
    • Gap: Verification of the "reusable FPV drone intercepting Lancet" claim. Scalability and replicability of this tactic. Technical specifications of the FPV drone used and the interception method. Training requirements for such operations. RF's analytical assessment of Ukrainian FPV drone capabilities, particularly the "anti-Shahed reusable FPV drone." Confirmation of the cause and scope of the Starlink communication disruption. Full assessment of the impact of the Starlink outage on UAF FPV drone operations and their effectiveness. Assessment of claimed Akhmat Special Forces drone activity. Verification of successful interception of drones near Kremenchuk. Assessment of Operatyvny ZSU's video of fighter jet maneuvers for combat readiness or training implications. Assessment of UAF AD effectiveness against new groups of strike UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and specific tactics used by RF (e.g., swarming). Effectiveness of UAF measures to counter RF drone attacks on logistics vehicles like the KrAZ-260.
    • Collection Requirements: TECHINT on captured or recovered FPV drones used for interception. HUMINT from UAF drone operators. OSINT monitoring of UAF channels for further demonstrations or operational details. OSINT monitoring of RF milblogger discussions and analysis of UAF drone capabilities. Investigate Starlink disruption through technical analysis and user reports. Assess drone operational data and reports from frontline units immediately following the Starlink outage. Investigate Akhmat Special Forces drone activity. Confirm details of Kremenchuk drone interceptions. Analyze Operatyvny ZSU's fighter jet video for any new insights into UAF air force capabilities or training. Collect UAF AD engagement data for new drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk. Analyze drone footage from Colonelcassad (KrAZ-260 strike) to understand RF drone capabilities and UAF vulnerabilities in transport.
  9. IAEA Access and Nuclear Safety at ZNPP:
    • Gap: Full details of the IAEA's requested access to the ZNPP training center and RF's specific reasons for denial. Current operational status and safety protocols at ZNPP. Impact of denied access on IAEA's ability to monitor nuclear safety and security.
    • Collection Requirements: OSINT monitoring of IAEA statements and reports. HUMINT from ZNPP personnel or former employees. SIGINT on RF communications regarding ZNPP management and security.
  10. Iran-IAEA Cooperation:
    • Gap: Full details of Iran's renewed cooperation with IAEA. Implications for the broader international nuclear non-proliferation regime and regional stability. Potential influence of RF on this decision.
    • Collection Requirements: OSINT monitoring of IAEA reports, WSJ and other reputable news sources, and official statements from Iran and relevant international bodies. Diplomatic intelligence on any backchannel discussions or negotiations.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

  1. Prioritize and Deploy Counter-GAB and Anti-Ship Missile Capabilities, and Exploit Aftermath of Starlink Outage: Immediately review and accelerate deployment of capabilities to counter FAB-1500/3000 and UMPB-5. Enhance EW systems to disrupt UMPK guidance. Explore options for long-range strikes against RF tactical aviation airfields and maintenance facilities (Belgorod, Voronezh, Kursk, Rostov, Krasnodar, Lipetsk Oblasts), and Bastion-P launch sites in Crimea. Expedite discussions with Germany regarding Patriot systems. Closely monitor any further details on the UMPB D-30SN system. Assess claimed FAB-500 strike on Kharkiv МВД building for precision targeting implications. Prioritize AD systems capable of intercepting high-speed, low-altitude anti-ship missiles (P-800 Onyx). Expedite the integration and deployment of newly acquired HENSOLDT radars to enhance air picture and targeting for AD systems. Prepare for the possibility of chemical weapon use, ensuring protective equipment and medical protocols are in place. Immediately verify and, if confirmed, publicize the claimed Ukrainian tactical aviation strike on the FSB base in Bryansk Oblast to highlight UAF offensive capabilities. Immediately assess the residual impact of the Starlink outage on RF operations (e.g., if their own terminals are affected) and exploit any resulting weaknesses in their deep strike C2 or logistics for counter-operations. Task ISR to verify new missile threats in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts and drone threats in Poltava, and re-allocate AD as needed. Prioritize defense against new ballistic missile threat from northeast and high-speed target near Kremenchuk. Conduct immediate BDA on claimed L119 Howitzer destruction by Lancet in Kharkiv Oblast to assess enemy precision strike capabilities. Address new strike UAV threats in Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts, and persistent reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv. Conduct immediate BDA for RF claims of a strike on a UAF HQ in Kherson. Monitor Rostov Oblast, Lipetsk Oblast and Crimean Bridge situation for continued RF deep strike implications and any related activity. Monitor drone warnings issued by RF officials for potential target areas. Immediate reallocation of mobile AD assets to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, particularly Dnipro, Pavlohrad and Samara districts, to counter the new influx of enemy strike UAVs. Prioritize protecting critical infrastructure and population centers in this region given the recent Starlink outage. Disseminate intelligence on the claimed "most massive attack on the North Caucasus" and its implications for RF AD vulnerabilities. Leverage temporary flight restrictions in RF airports as an indicator of successful UAF deep strikes and a constraint on RF air mobility. Conduct BDA on any new Grad MLRS strikes in Kharkiv Oblast, especially those targeting UAV control points. Publicly highlight any civilian casualties or infrastructure damage from RF drone debris within Russia (e.g., Kuban train incident) to counter RF claims of precision and to demonstrate indiscriminate nature of conflict. Immediately assess and publicize the Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical plant strike, highlighting successful targeting of high-value industrial assets within Russia, while countering RF claims of "no damage." Publicly highlight the increased flight delays in Sochi as evidence of successful Ukrainian drone operations and RF vulnerability. Immediately investigate and publicize any damage from drone attacks on the Tambov Powder Plant, emphasizing impact on RF military production.
  2. Strengthen Anti-Armor Defenses on Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Axes Amidst Communications Challenges: Immediate and substantial reinforcement of Chasiv Yar is critical due to claimed RF advances by 98th VDV. Expedite allocation of additional FPV drone teams, ATGM systems, and rapid deployment of scatterable mines to both Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk axes. Implement dynamic, layered anti-armor defenses focusing on RF's likely avenues of approach. Conduct immediate training on countering combined arms breaches, including small-unit probing attacks supported by FPV drones and EW. Prioritize drone deliveries to this sector (e.g., 43rd OMBR, 32nd Steel Brigade, 14th OMBR, and support for FPV transceiver acquisition). Leverage and disseminate videos of effective UAF drone engagements (e.g., Butusov Plus Serebryansky Forest video, SBU "A" Center, 128th OGShBr) for training and morale. Verify and if necessary, reinforce defenses against claimed advances on Yablonovka. Exploit the decrease in offensive tempo on the Avdiivka axis to redeploy forces for reinforcement where needed. Immediately verify and counter claimed RF breakthrough into Kupyansk and any claimed RF advances in Zaporizhzhia (including Pokrovsk). Assess the alleged UAF intention to increase groupings near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Given the recent Starlink outage, immediately activate all backup communication systems (e.g., encrypted radio, satellite phones, landlines, courier) to ensure continuity of C2 and FPV drone operations in Chasiv Yar and across the front. Develop and disseminate emergency communication protocols. Prioritize establishing robust, redundant communication for tactical units. Publicly address and counter RF narratives of internal dissent. Counter RF claims of identifying foreign mercenaries by highlighting their individual motivations and support for Ukraine. Evaluate the "good news from Sumy direction" to determine if UAF forces need support or if there's an opportunity to exploit RF vulnerabilities. Conduct detailed analysis of Colonelcassad's "Rubikon" video from Donbas to identify RF tactical vulnerabilities and patterns. Monitor Rybar's tank transport video for potential indications of reinforcement or redeployment. Implement enhanced measures for protecting UAF logistics and transport vehicles from drone attacks, particularly ammunition carriers. Consider using armored transport, camouflage, dispersal, or active counter-drone systems for supply convoys, especially in areas vulnerable to RF drone activity. Immediately assess and counter the logistical complications for AFU near Krasnyi Lyman due0 to the liberation of Novoekonomichne. Monitor and counter any further claimed tactical gains by specific RF units (e.g., 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade and 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Division of the 5th Army Group "Vostok"). Verify and counter RF claims of fire control over the LNR administrative border. Address the newly observed FPV drone as an RPG carrier by RF.
  3. Enhance Air Defense and Hardening for Urban Centers and Strongpoints with Adapted Communications: Immediately re-prioritize and deploy additional mobile AD assets, particularly those effective against UAVs and high-altitude targets, to vulnerable urban centers (Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Konstantinovka, Poltava, Nikopol, Sumy, Kremenchuk, Svitlovodsk, and Dnipro city) and frontline strongpoints. Implement enhanced multi-layered AD strategies to counter saturation attacks. Review and strengthen hardening protocols for critical infrastructure and military strongpoints. Prepare AD for ballistic threats from the south and aviation weapon threats in Dnipropetrovsk. Maintain alert posture for MiG-31K launches. Fully integrate and optimize the Israeli early warning system in Kyiv. Prepare specific AD responses for new ballistic threat from the northeast. Prioritize AD for high-speed targets in Sumy Oblast and UAVs approaching Kharkiv. Continue effective AD operations on all axes (e.g., Poltava Oblast). Disseminate information on successful Lancet interception for potential replication. Leverage the new HENSOLDT radar acquisition to enhance AD capabilities. Anticipate potential RF attempts to overwhelm AD by exploiting communication gaps created by the recent Starlink outage. Emphasize decentralized decision-making for AD engagements at the unit level if central C2 is degraded. Given the confirmed movement of new groups of strike UAVs towards Dnipropetrovsk (including Dnipro city), specifically target these drone formations with available AD assets and warn affected population centers (Dnipro, Pavlohrad, Samara) immediately. Given the GAB launches on Sumy Oblast and Shahed activity over Sumy city, reinforce AD in Sumy Oblast and enhance public awareness campaigns. Reinforce AD capabilities and public warning systems in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts in response to confirmed GAB launches.
  4. Implement Aggressive OPSEC and Counter-ISR on Southern Axis, Adapting to Starlink Outage: Advise all UAF units in Orikhiv-Robotyne salient and other areas under increased reconnaissance to implement strict EMCON. Aggressively task UAF counter-UAV assets and AD systems to target/neutralize RF ISR platforms across all affected oblasts (Sumy, Chernihiv, Kherson, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk). Prepare for imminent standoff strikes against C2 and AD. Disseminate intelligence on new enemy UAV/EW integration tactics to all frontline units. Direct immediate review and adaptation of C-UAS (Counter-UAS) and ECCM (Electronic Counter-Countermeasures) TTPs. Task ISR assets (SIGINT, IMINT) to focus on tracking the movement of EW assets supporting ground operations, particularly near Chasiv Yar. Immediately investigate the residual scope of the Starlink communication disruption and implement redundancy measures, focusing on alternative secure communication channels and contingency plans for ISR data transmission in a degraded environment. Given the new wave of drones moving towards Dnipropetrovsk (including Dnipro city), actively monitor for their likely launch points and implement offensive counter-UAV measures in Zaporizhzhia Oblast to disrupt their operations before they reach targets.
  5. Intensify Civilian Protection and Emergency Response with Public Awareness: Allocate additional resources (heavy equipment, specialized training, medical supplies, personnel) to DSNS, particularly for urban search and rescue, structural integrity assessments, firefighting, and mass casualty response. Disseminate updated civilian protection advisories. Continue immediate investigation of war crimes, and conduct rapid, public investigation into RF ambulance strike claim and "Delta-Lotsman" vessel incident to deny RF a propaganda victory and ascertain true cause. Support efforts of patrol police in affected areas (e.g., Cherkasy). Publicize ongoing reconstruction efforts (e.g., Zaporizhzhia housing repairs, Kryvyi Rih educational facilities, road repairs) to boost local morale. Support the expansion of forced evacuation from high-threat areas in Donetsk Oblast. Condemn attacks on humanitarian organizations (e.g., Norwegian base in Mykolaiv). Provide immediate support to areas like Nikopol facing continued shelling. Publicize the prompt investigation into the factory worker's attack. Address the alleged sending of kidnapped Ukrainian children to the front with immediate international attention and fact-finding efforts, and develop protocols for UAF units if confronted with such a scenario. Publicize the international investigation into RF torture of POWs (OSCE Moscow Mechanism). Highlight RF obstruction of IAEA access to ZNPP training center and demand international pressure for full access. Immediately inform the civilian population about the Starlink outage and potential impacts on communication, providing alternative means for emergency contact and information dissemination. Counter any RF narratives that attempt to blame Ukraine for the outage or exploit civilian anxiety. Immediately address the death of People's Deputy Yaroslav Rushchyshyn, providing official statements and counteracting any potential RF exploitation of the event. Issue immediate public warnings for residents of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, especially Dnipro, Pavlohrad and Samara districts, regarding the new drone threat, and ensure accessible shelters and emergency contacts. Provide immediate support to Sumy city residents affected by UAV activity and GAB launches, ensuring shelters and emergency services are accessible. Provide immediate support to residents of Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts affected by GAB launches, ensuring emergency services and shelters are accessible.
  6. Exploit RF Vulnerabilities in Information Operations and Address Crocus Allegations: Develop/execute targeted IO campaign highlighting RF's reliance on FAB-3000/UMPB-5/P-800 Onyx as indicator of heavy losses and indiscriminate targeting. Continue IO campaigns targeting RF military personnel/families, exploiting internal appeals for equipment, logistical issues (dry rations), and perceived systemic failures, including the case of the military widow, military discipline issues (e.g., soldier criticism of bloggers, court denying compensation to deceased soldier's family, МВД-Медиа video controversy, military police brutality, penal colony units, LNR MoD serviceman apology, MoD corruption case), and ongoing corruption arrests. Counter RF claims of civilian infrastructure as military targets by widely disseminating evidence of civilian casualties and the use of large GABs on residential areas. Leverage An-24 incident (focus on aircraft age, previous incidents, railway worker casualties, Angara Airlines investigation, regional mourning, SibNIA statement, Minval Politika Grozny incident timeline), Sochi flight disruptions/casualties, Novoshakhtinsk fire (firefighter death, civilian casualty), and potential teacher job losses to highlight RF internal chaos and disregard for civilian safety/welfare. Actively disseminate news of significant international support and domestic defense industry growth. Address corruption concerns transparently (e.g., General Prosecutor's office investigations, new law enforcement/anti-corruption bill, SMA fraud case, Husakov fraud case). Leverage SBU's success in Mykolaiv and Kyiv to highlight effective counter-intelligence and cyber security (hacker forum). Exploit RF internal social tensions and challenges in occupied territories, and expose the "neuro-profiling" of youth as a form of state control. Frame "super-small assault groups" as a sign of RF manpower issues. Proactively address and debunk RF disinformation regarding Ukrainian internal affairs (e.g., NABU, Kyiv protests, Yermak criticism, Politico claims from Alex Parker Returns, Macron/Costa reports, Chasiv Yar claims, Hulk Hogan disinformation, "kidnapped children to front" reports, "Satanists in AFU" propaganda, NABU/SAP bill narrative, Trump/Ukrainian General, IAEA ZNPP access) and external relations (e.g., Hungarian FM's energy claims and weapon supply stance, Swiss editor claims, Zaluzhny's war timeline, McFaul's comments, "third players" in Cambodia-Thailand conflict, Israel/Palestine recognition). Counter dehumanizing propaganda (e.g., Fighterbomber's video, WarGonzo's HUR claims) by emphasizing civilian suffering and UAF professional conduct. Highlight NATO's continued reinforcement in the region (Lithuanian general's statement, Estonia EW concerns). Emphasize Ukrainian democratic values by contrasting them with RF's internal repression (e.g., lawyer Maria Bontsler's case, Baza journalist bribes). Utilize the graphic content from Butusov Plus criticizing Russian soldiers as part of psychological operations. Counter RF narratives of economic stability by highlighting internal debates on commercial regulations (Wildberries & Russ statement) and economic downturns (GAZ four-day work week, metallurgical plant profit collapse). Analyze and counter the "Gamification" narrative from Arkhangel Spetsnaza. Counter Alex Parker Returns' "dome homes" proposal. Emphasize the importance of learning history for national identity. Leverage Operation Z's video of the Latvian MEP to show internal EU dissent on sanctions. Utilize "Ukrzaliznytsia" security improvements as a positive narrative on civilian safety efforts. Specifically counter the false flag narrative of "children fighting in Lisichansk." Counter the Telegram account hacking scam. Publicize international condemnation of RF for torture of Ukrainian POWs. Address RF narratives regarding internal blame within their military. Exploit the internal RF personnel changes and arrests. Counter the narrative from RF POW interviews. Counter RF narratives on internal Ukrainian political/espionage struggles. Immediately address the Starlink outage publicly. Counter RF narratives that frame the outage as a success or a sign of Ukrainian weakness. Refute "Russian Spring" claims about Zelenskyy and Yermak. Counter TASS's disinformation regarding Ukrainian protests. Exploit the impact of railway cargo redirection on RF internal logistics and economy. Leverage the confirmed drone attacks on Rostov Oblast and the subsequent Crimean Bridge suspension as evidence of Ukrainian offensive capabilities and RF vulnerability, using it to boost domestic morale and international confidence. Use Operatyvny ZSU's video of the fighter jet to project professionalism and readiness of the UAF Air Force. Counter Rybar's "ZSU on the border of Thailand" disinformation promptly. Publicly commend US State Department's call for a full ceasefire in Istanbul, framing it as international pressure for a peaceful resolution. Directly counter RF narratives on US foreign aid cuts, clarifying aid streams and emphasizing sustained international commitment. Immediately and aggressively refute TASS's claim that the "Crocus" terrorist attack organizers acted in Ukraine's interest, providing counter-evidence and highlighting the false flag nature of such an accusation to international and domestic audiences. Address RF propaganda regarding "Sumy columbarium" and "Closing of America" by providing factual context and dismissing the absurd claims. Counter RF narratives on youth religious mobilization (Orthodoxy) by highlighting its coercive nature or human rights implications. Leverage Iran's renewed cooperation with IAEA to highlight international diplomatic efforts towards non-proliferation, contrasting with RF's perceived recklessness. Immediately refute and condemn RF accusations against Yuri Dud as an attempt to suppress freedom of speech and political dissent. Use FSB's new "Spetsy" series as an example of internal RF propaganda aimed at a domestic audience, rather than a factual assessment of their capabilities. Address the fog in Moscow Oblast as a factor affecting air travel or perception. Publicly highlight any civilian impacts from drone debris in Kuban. Counter RF attempts to downplay damage from Ukrainian deep strikes (e.g., Nevinnomyssk Mayor's statement) by providing objective evidence and analysis of damage to industrial targets. Publicly highlight new corruption investigations within RF (e.g., Bryansk Vice-Governor Simonenko case) to highlight RF internal instability. Publicly highlight the ongoing, large-scale search and rescue operation in Tynda following the An-24 crash as a drain on RF resources and a sign of internal challenges. Condemn and directly counter RF's "Satanist-Nazi" propaganda by exposing its fabricated nature and dehumanizing intent. Highlight Pashinyan's conflict with the Armenian Church as further evidence of internal political instability among RF's allies, exploiting this for broader geopolitical narratives. Leverage ongoing protests against the NABU/SAP bill to demonstrate Ukrainian civil society's commitment to democratic principles and anti-corruption. Publicize Zelenskyy's mandate for lie detector tests for state secrets access as a commitment to transparency and accountability. Publicly highlight RF's internal economic strategy (closed-loop economy) as a sign of their resource constraints. Highlight diplomatic divisions in the West (Rubio/Macron on Palestine).
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