Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide threat from RF missile and UAV attacks persists. Guided Aerial Bombs (GABs), including the UMPB-5 and FAB-3000, remain a significant threat in frontline areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Odesa Oblast: Confirmed destruction of a residential 9-story building and the Pryvoz market due to RF drone attacks. Significant fires, structural damage, and ongoing emergency response efforts. Civilian casualties confirmed (3 injured at Pryvoz, with total casualties from the residential building impact unknown but likely higher). New information indicates an explosion on a Ukrainian dredge ship "Delta-Lotsman" in Bystre estuary, resulting in 3 deaths and injuries. New report confirms one male fatality from drone attack. Additional photos from RBK-Ukraina confirm widespread debris and civilian damage following attacks. ASTRA confirms 32-year-old male killed in Odesa residential building attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for drone attack and damage, HIGH for civilian casualties, HIGH for "Delta-Lotsman" incident, HIGH for civilian sentiment, HIGH for humanitarian base attack, HIGH for new fatality report, HIGH for RBK-Ukraina photos, HIGH for ASTRA confirmation of Odesa fatality).
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Two UAVs confirmed shot down by UAF Air Command "East." Missile threat active earlier. New threat of aviation weapon use in Synelnykivskyi district. New missile threat detected for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol, Kryvyi Rih, Kamyanske, Dnipro districts). Three new ambulances provided by philanthropists. New enemy UAVs reported in the Sumy region near Sumy city, northern Kharkiv region (eastern outskirts of Kharkiv city), and southwest of Dnipro, with assets engaged. Serhiy Lysak (Dnipropetrovsk ODA) reports continued shelling of Nikopol, Myrivska, and Marhanets communities with drones and artillery, confirming ongoing attacks and damage to residential buildings, a medical facility, and a lyceum in Nikopol. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Axis): RF sources claim advances near Redkodub and fighting for Karpovka, Glushchenkovo, and Novy Mir. Rybar claims RF capture of Novotoretskoye and advancements towards Rodinskoye, and into forest belts east of Razino. UAF (STERNENKO) notes "many requests from Pokrovsk for drones," indicating heavy fighting and also reports 3 SSO personnel eliminated 3 occupiers in Pokrovsk direction. TASS reports "fights began on the southern and southwestern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk." MOD Russia claims Grad MLRS used to destroy an AFU stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. UAF (MURAMASA) continues successful engagements against RF ground probes on Kostiantynivka axis. UAF Air Force reports RF launches of GABs onto Donetsk Oblast, with repeat launches observed. Colonelcassad claims a precision FAB strike on a bridge over the Vovcha River, connecting Iskra (DNR) to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and also reports active offensive and envelopment of key positions on the Kostiantynivka direction. UAF General Staff reports clashes near Rusyn Yar, Myrolubivka, Zatyshok, Lysivka, Popiv Yar, Myrnohrad, Zvirove, Udachne, Oleksiyivka, Novoukrayinka, Mayak, Novoekonomichne, Kotlyne, Dachne and towards Pokrovsk, Pankivka, Volodymyrivka, Sukhetske. RF milbloggers "Operatsiya Z" claim continued destruction of UAF personnel and equipment near Pokrovsk with drone footage. Colonelcassad posts video of FPV drone strike near Volodymyrivka, claiming destruction of a Ukrainian Forces pickup truck used for personnel transport. New RF milblogger video shows aerial footage of a village or town in the Konstantinovka direction with significant destruction, ongoing explosions, and military personnel movement, indicating active combat. "Two Majors" milbloggers claim a breakthrough to Aleksandro-Kalinovo on the Konstantinovka direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and RBK-Ukraina reports 2 killed, 14 injured from Russian shelling in Konstantinovka. Donetsk Oblast is expanding forced evacuation to Dobropillia and a number of villages. Операция Z reports that "Otvazhnye" (brave ones) have liberated Novoekonomichne and are approaching the suburbs of Dmytrov (Mirnohrad). The video shows drone footage of strikes on an AFU shelter and UAV equipment, indicating active offensive operations. Архангел Спецназа posts a drone video of the Konstantinovka direction showing destruction, explosions, and personnel movement, from a Russian perspective, implying active combat. TASS reports "Center" group liberated Novoekonomichne and Zverevo in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, DNR. Colonelcassad claims liberation of Shevchenko and Pivdenny micro-districts in Chasiv Yar by 98th VDV, and envelopment of Zemlianky micro-district. This indicates a significant immediate threat and potential RF breakthrough in Chasiv Yar. Colonelcassad now claims liberation of Yablonovka on the Konstantinovka direction. RF milblogger Colonelcassad claims that assault units of the 51st Guards Combined Arms Army of the "Center" group of forces liberated Novoekonomichne, DNR. The associated video shows aerial views of a settlement (Novoekonomichne) with a blue-domed church, followed by thermal/night vision footage of military positions, including claimed VSU shelters and UAV control points, experiencing explosions. The video also claims advances towards "Dimitrov (Mirnograd)." Colonelcassad posts video of alleged destruction of UAF UAV control point in Poltavka. MoD Russia claims Novoekonomicheskoye and Zverevo liberated in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Kotsnews reports Russian army liberated Novoekonomicheskoye and Zverevo, and if the T0406 road is cut, Pokrovsk and Mirnograd garrisons will have only one "road of life" - E50 to Pavlograd. Butusov Plus posts video showing Mirnohrad as a city in ruins, reinforcing significant destruction. Vooin DV posts photo and video claiming assault units of the 51st Guards Combined Arms Army liberated Novoekonomichne. New map from Z комитет + карта СВО depicts the Krasnoarmeyskoye direction, indicating areas under RF control, transferred to RF control, and areas with fortifications and minefields. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for claims of control, HIGH for RF intent/ground movement, HIGH for intensified fighting, HIGH for UAF successful engagements, HIGH for GAB use, MEDIUM for bridge strike claim – awaiting UAF confirmation, HIGH for RF drone strikes, HIGH for FPV drone strike video, HIGH for new video confirmation of destruction/activity, HIGH for "Two Majors" claim, HIGH for civilian casualties, HIGH for forced evacuation, HIGH for Poltavka claim, HIGH for MoD/Kotsnews claims and implications, HIGH for Butusov Plus video, MEDIUM for Vooin DV claim, awaiting UAF confirmation, HIGH for Z комитет map).
  • Cherkasy Oblast: Seven individuals, including a child, injured from RF missile attack, reportedly with shrapnel. OPERATYVNY ZSU reports damage to a cemetery. UPDATE: RBK-Ukraina reports the number of injured has risen to 12. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for missile attack and damage, HIGH for civilian casualties, HIGH for updated casualty figures).
  • Kharkiv Oblast: RF sources claim "North" group continued creating a "security strip" in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts. First operational use of a FAB-3000 M-54 UMPK against a Ukrainian strongpoint in Lyptsi, causing catastrophic damage despite a near miss. Positional fighting continues in Vovchansk. Kharkiv Oblast Administration reports 9 settlements struck. TASS claims RF forces "infiltrated UAF defenses near Melovoe, crossed the Verkhnya Dvurechnaya river, and secured its western bank." UAF Air Force reports new GAB launches onto Kharkiv Oblast from the north. RBK-Ukraina reports KAAB hit a multi-story building in Kharkiv, Terekhov confirms hits near residential complex, 3 injured. Oleg Syniehubov (Kharkiv ODA Head) reports 2 then 16, now 18 casualties from strike on Kharkiv. RBK-Ukraine reports 23 injured, including a 10-year-old girl and a pregnant woman. ASTRA and Operatyvny ZSU post videos of KAB hits on a multi-story residential building in Kharkiv. OTU "Kharkiv" reports on the situation in its operational zone and released video of successful aero reconnaissance strikes destroying enemy vehicles, BMP, positions, and shelters on the South-Slobozhansky direction. UAF General Staff reports clashes near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Dvorichna and towards Petro-Ivanivka. Casualty count for Kharkiv has risen to 33, including a 28-day-old infant and four children, confirmed by Kharkiv ODA and Prosecutor's Office. RBK-Ukraina specifies the ammunition as UMPB-5. Colonelcassad publishes additional video of the aftermath. Oleg Syniehubov posts photos, likely of returned POWs from Kharkiv Oblast, indicating a successful exchange. RBK-Ukraina reports the number of injured has increased to 36. New RBK-Ukraina report states 39 injured, 6 of them children, from Kharkiv shelling. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the number of injured in Kharkiv has risen to 41, including six children. РБК-Україна posts video from a drone showing the aftermath of KAB strikes in Kharkiv, confirming significant destruction. UAF Air Force reports new GAB launches onto Kharkiv Oblast from the northeast. RBK-Ukraina reports RF drone attack on Kharkiv. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the number of injured in Kharkiv has risen to 40. ASTRA reports that the number of injured in Kharkiv has risen to 42. Два майора posts videos showing an aerial view of a burning building in Kharkiv and the aftermath of an airstrike with emergency services, confirming significant destruction and impact. Oleg Syniehubov reports a new RF drone attack on Kharkiv. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs from the north in the direction of Kharkiv. Fighterbomber posts a video showing aerial footage of an explosion hitting a large building in an urban environment, likely Kharkiv, supporting earlier reports of strikes. Fighterbomber also posts a photo implying three FAB-500 strikes on the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (ГУ МВД), indicating precision targeting of administrative buildings. ОТУ "Харків" posts new drone footage showing "Molniya" strike UAVs destroying Russian observation posts and a UAZ 'Bukhanka' in Kharkiv Oblast, implying continued successful defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for FAB-3000 use/impact, LOW for verification of claimed losses or territorial gains, HIGH for RF claims/widespread strikes, MEDIUM for Melovoe claim, HIGH for new GAB launches, HIGH for civilian casualties in Kharkiv, HIGH for updated casualty figures, HIGH for UMPB-5 identification, HIGH for POW return, HIGH for increased casualties, HIGH for new OTU "Kharkiv" video).
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 48-year-old woman injured in Orikhivska Hromada (community). RF Milbloggers claim continued destruction of enemy targets. Operation Z claims RF forces "liberated Kamyanske" and are "storming Plavni, advancing further on the Zaporizhzhia front." Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration confirms continued RF strikes on a university sports hall. Mash on Donbass claims a Ukrainian drone strike killed an ambulance driver and injured two paramedics in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (UNCONFIRMED BY UAF). UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV heading towards Zaporizhzhia from the south. UAF General Staff reports airstrikes at Mala Tokmachka, Prymorske, Malokaterynivka, Mahdalynivka. Clashes reported near Mala Tokmachka (Orikhiv direction) and Bilohirya (Huliaippole direction). Colonelcassad posted video claiming artillery and drone operators of the 35th Army continue to search and destroy enemy targets in temporarily occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration promotes rental subsidies for internally displaced persons. TASS reports RF forces are advancing north from Kamyanske towards Stepnohirsk, and Kyiv is preparing defenses. This claim is from an RF military expert, not UAF. New video from Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration shows repair work on damaged housing after shelling, focusing on roof repairs in Shevchenkivskyi district. New RF milblogger video shows reconnaissance and destruction of AFU vehicles in Zatyshye (east of Huliaipole). Z Committee + SVO Map milbloggers post a tactical map of Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating claimed advances towards Plavni. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports that defenders of Zaporizhzhia's skies destroy over 50 Russian reconnaissance drones weekly, supported by drone footage with a 'bomb' payload and a message of victory, indicating active counter-drone efforts. Alex Parker Returns reports a proposal to construct "dome homes" in Novorossiya, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, likely an RF initiative for reconstruction in occupied/claimed territories. DeepState and Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukraїni (Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine) post videos of drone strikes by 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade "Sons of Khors" destroying RF personnel and equipment in the area of Mali Shcherbaky, demonstrating successful UAF engagements. The AFU Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Two Majors post a video from Zaporizhzhia front, showing drone footage of explosions on targets, with a Ukrainian flag overlay on a target and insignia of 'DVA MAJORS', suggesting successful drone operations by RF forces. Colonelcassad posts new map claiming RF advances near Kamyanske and Plavni. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for civilian injury, HIGH for RF targeting, MEDIUM for claimed territorial gains, LOW for UAF drone attack on ambulance, HIGH for ZOMA reporting on social welfare, MEDIUM for RF claimed advance on Stepnohirsk, HIGH for video evidence of reconstruction, HIGH for new milblogger video, MEDIUM for map claim of advances, HIGH for counter-drone efforts, HIGH for Alex Parker Returns report, HIGH for UAF drone strikes, HIGH for GAB launches, HIGH for RF drone ops, MEDIUM for Colonelcassad map, awaiting UAF confirmation). Air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been cleared. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Kryvyi Rih: Situation assessed as controlled. Oleksandr Vilkul shares photos from an educational facility (classroom), implying continued efforts to rebuild or restore civilian infrastructure for children to learn. Oleksandr Vilkul also posts photos of road construction, indicating continued efforts to maintain civilian infrastructure. Oleksandr Vilkul provides a briefing summary for July 24, noting a decrease in road repair scales due to funds redirected to support the Defense Forces (nearly 3 billion UAH since the start of the war). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: RBK-Ukraina reports "Russians attacked Mykolaiv with drones overnight." Significant fires and emergency response indicate severe impact. Dnevnik Desantnika claims RF forces "destroyed a Bayraktar UAV production facility at the Equator factory." SBU prevented a dual terrorist act near the regional TCC, apprehending FSB agents. RBK-Ukraina reports a Russian drone attacked a Norwegian humanitarian organization's base in Mykolaiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for drone attacks/impact, LOW for claimed target destruction, HIGH for SBU operation, HIGH for humanitarian base attack).
  • Sumy Oblast: UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV (Shahed) near Bilopillia and a reconnaissance UAV near Lebedyn, both heading southeast, with assets engaged. UAF Air Force reports RF launches of GABs onto Sumy Oblast, with repeated launches observed. Reconnaissance UAVs reported on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, and northern Chernihiv Oblast, with UAF assets engaged. UAF General Staff reports repelled 12 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. Colonelcassad publishes drone footage showing strikes, including what appear to be FPV drone attacks on structures and a quad bike, labeled "Sumy direction. 'Rubikon' is working." Vooin DV posts video of an FPV drone strike on a Ukrainian Forces pickup truck with a REB system in Sumy Oblast, claiming destruction. Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 'mopeds' (likely Shahed drones) flying towards Sumy, indicating an ongoing threat. Николаевский Ванёк reports 1 drone remaining and heading towards Lebedyn, indicating an active engagement or pursuit. UAF Air Force reports new GAB launches onto Sumy Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ posts images of "Sumy attackers," some showing violent aftermath, implying RF ground operations in Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad posts graphic photos labeled "Sumy border landscapes," further indicating active combat in the region. STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF (SSO A) engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast with "Optical Rusoriz" (likely drone strikes), showing destruction of vehicles and personnel. UAF Air Force reports a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast (Khotin), heading southwest. UAF Air Force reports an enemy UAV (Shahed) on the northern outskirts of Shostka (Sumy Oblast), with assets engaged. UAF Air Force reports threat of enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast from the north, currently flying south. UAF Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs on northern Sumy, course south. UAF Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs near Bilopillia, heading south. New groups of enemy strike UAVs reported on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, course west/southwest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for UAV activity, HIGH for GAB use, HIGH for recon UAV activity, HIGH for RF drone strike claims, HIGH for Vooin DV video, HIGH for new drone activity, HIGH for ground ops imagery, HIGH for SOF activity, HIGH for new UAF Air Force reports on drone movement).
  • Kherson Oblast: Mykolaivskiy Vanok reports GAB launch on Kherson from Temporarily Occupied Territory (TOT). STERNENKO also reports strikes on Kherson. Reconnaissance UAVs reported on Kherson Oblast, with UAF assets engaged. UAF General Staff reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Lvove and repelled 9 Russian army assaults. Vooin DV posts video claiming a substation explosion in Kherson. Voenkor Kotenok posts video implying capture of a "Zhdun" (collaborator/spotter) in Kherson Oblast, showing an individual confessing to photographing Russian positions and checkpoints. New RF milblogger video shows aerial view of an urban environment, labeled "Kherson. Works group ROY," showing an explosion and smoke plumes, with on-screen warnings about strong wind, suggesting drone operations in adverse conditions and active military engagement. Basurin o glavnom posts video of FSB detention and interrogation of a man in Krasnodar Krai for alleged collaboration and photography of military facilities, as well as a video of the detention of a "spotter" in Kherson Oblast. Alex Parker Returns reports a proposal to construct "dome homes" in Novorossiya, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, likely an RF initiative for reconstruction in occupied/claimed territories. Two Majors post a video, likely propaganda, showcasing FPV drone capabilities against ground targets in the Kherson direction, with text overlays claiming 'effective FPV applications' and 'all targets were destroyed'. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for GAB use and strikes, HIGH for recon UAV activity, MEDIUM for substation explosion claim – awaiting UAF confirmation, HIGH for FSB/RF claims of capturing a spotter, HIGH for new video confirmation of drone activity/strikes, HIGH for Basurin o glavnom videos, HIGH for Alex Parker Returns report, HIGH for RF FPV video).
  • Other Eastern Axes: UAF General Staff reports clashes near Stepova Novoselivka, Borivska Andriyivka, Holubivka, Zahryzove, Novoplatonivka (Kupyansk direction); Hrekivka, Zelenyy Hay, Serednye, Shandryholove, Dronivka, Novyy Mir, Karpivka, Kolodyazi, Shypylivka and towards Druzhelubivka, Serebryanka (Lyman direction); Hryhorivka (Siversk direction); Chasiv Yar, Stupochky and Bila Hora (Kramatorsk direction); Toretsk (Toretsk direction); Zaporizhzhya, Zirka, Piddubne, Oleksandrohrad, Shevchenko, Maliyivka, Temyrivka, Voskresenka and Vilne Pole (Novopavlivka direction). New RF milblogger photo from Kupyansk direction near Radkovka, showing tactical markings on a map. Milblogger Kotenok posts a map of Kramatorsk direction, likely showing RF positions or areas of interest. STERNENKO reports that Sky Hunters of the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade are stopping new Russian assaults on the Kupyansk direction, supported by video footage of drone strikes. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 16:00 24.07.2025 regarding the Russian invasion. Z комитет + SVO Map milbloggers post a tactical map of Novopavlovskoe direction showing occupied territories and settlements under different control, with RF advancing in #ZelenyyHay. UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction. TASS reports RF "siloviki" claim UAF intends to increase grouping near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for UAF General Staff report, HIGH for new photo, LOW for specific intelligence value from Kotenok's map, HIGH for STERNENKO report, HIGH for General Staff update, HIGH for Z committee map, HIGH for UAF Air Force report, MEDIUM for TASS claim, awaiting UAF confirmation).
  • Poltava Oblast: RBK-Ukraina reports an enemy drone fell in Poltava Oblast due to air defense work, confirming engagement. UAF Air Force reports a reconnaissance UAV on the border of Kharkiv and Poltava Oblasts, heading southeast, with assets engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russia:
  • Krasnodar Krai (Sochi): Multiple videos show large explosions and fires near a "Lukoil-Yugnefteprodukt Sochinskaya oil depot." RF MoD claims 39 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over the Black and Azov Seas and Krasnodar Krai. Civilian reports indicate flights to Sochi are disrupted (28 delayed/cancelled). TASS and ASTRA confirm casualties in Krasnodar Krai from UAV attacks: "Two people died, 11 injured" (Krasnodar Governor). TASS reports 5 railway workers injured in Sochi due to drone attacks. Peskov states these attacks are a "continuation of Kyiv's strikes on civilian objects." Kotsnews makes "several remarks" on the Sochi attack. Butusov Plus shares video footage implying a missile launch near Sochi, questioning why Sochi is being "bombed." TASS releases video footage of aftermath of UAV attack on Sochi, showing structural damage to buildings. OPERATYVNY ZSU posts additional video of the night attack on Sochi and surrounding areas, confirming the scale of the explosions. ASTRA posts video showing bullet holes in an SUV and people tending to an injured person, stating two female railway workers died in the Sochi drone attack. TASS reports injured increased from 11 to 13 people. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for drone attacks, widespread impact, casualties, flight disruptions, RF reporting, HIGH for video evidence and RF public reaction, HIGH for additional video confirmation, HIGH for increased casualties).
  • Kursk Oblast: Russian official Khinshtein signed a resolution on payments to residents forced to leave homes due to property damage from Ukrainian attacks. Regional MPs supported new support measures for SVO participants and their families. Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk Oblast Governor) posts photos from a formal meeting, celebrating young industrialists' contribution to the region's and country's economy, emphasizing their role in manufacturing and technology, likely hinting at military-industrial complex contributions. MoD Russia posts video showing engineers from the International Mine Action Centre demining border areas of Belgorod region, indicating active demining operations. STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast with "Optical Rusoriz" (likely drone strikes), showing destruction of vehicles and personnel. Два майора posts that the acting governor of Kursk Oblast reports a woman was killed by a drone attack in the area. ASTRA confirms a woman died in Kursk Oblast due to a drone attack, citing local authorities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Luhansk (Kremennaya): TASS reports a "firefight" by UAF in Kremennaya. (CONFIDENCE: LOW for UAF aggressive action, HIGH for RF reporting).
  • Amur Oblast: A civilian An-24 passenger plane with 43 passengers (including 5 children) and 6 crew members went missing, crash site found 16km from Tynda, fuselage burning, preliminary reports indicate no survivors. ASTRA confirms no survivors and states the plane was almost 50 years old. TASS reports technical malfunction and human factor as versions, then later states the An-24 was technically sound. TASS reports the plane was damaged in a 2018 aviation incident and involved in four aviation incidents since 2018. Mishustin created a government commission for disaster relief. Butusov Plus also reports on the crash, highlighting the age of the aircraft and previous safety concerns. Governor Kobzev commented on the crash. TASS confirms rescuers from Khabarovsk and Blagoveshchensk dispatched. G. Nikitin (Nizhny Novgorod Governor) expressed condolences. TASS reports rescuers have reached the crash site and preliminarily there are no no survivors. Emergency situation declared in Amur Oblast. TASS confirms five railway workers among the dead in the An-24 crash. TASS reports the crashed An-24 was attempting to land in 10-point cloud cover and mountainous terrain. ASTRA posts video of the crash aftermath, stating no survivors. TASS publishes photos of the An-24 crash site and reports Xi Jinping expressed condolences to Putin. ASTRA reports documents are being seized from Angara Airlines, the operator of the crashed An-24. TASS reports 1 million rubles will be paid to the families of the deceased from Khabarovsk Krai. TASS reports three-day mourning period declared in Khabarovsk Krai due to An-24 crash. TASS reports travel costs for families wishing to visit the An-24 crash site will be covered. TASS provides video footage from the An-24 crash site published by the Far Eastern Transport Prosecutor's Office, confirming severe damage and debris. TASS reports a spontaneous memorial has appeared in Khabarovsk for the victims of the plane crash, providing photos and video evidence. Шеф Hayabusa reports that all on board the crashed An-24 in Russia died, accompanied by a video of the crash aftermath showing debris and smoke, reinforcing the severity of the incident. TASS reports that the Investigative Committee is conducting searches in the airline company and airport after the crash. TASS reports Putin expressed condolences to the families of the deceased in the Amur Oblast plane crash. TASS reports that Aliyev (Azerbaijan) expressed condolences to Putin for the An-24 crash. TASS reports the Turkish Foreign Ministry expressed condolences for the Amur Oblast plane crash. AV БогомаZ (Bryansk Oblast Governor) expresses condolences for the An-24 crash in Amur Oblast. UN Secretary-General Guterres expressed condolences. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH, HIGH for no survivors and EMERSTATE declaration, HIGH for railway worker casualties, HIGH for weather/terrain conditions, HIGH for ASTRA video, HIGH for new TASS photos and Xi's condolences, HIGH for Angara Airlines investigation, HIGH for financial compensation, HIGH for mourning period, HIGH for travel costs, HIGH for TASS video, HIGH for memorial, HIGH for Шеф Hayabusa video, HIGH for Investigative Committee searches, HIGH for Putin/Aliyev/Turkish/Bryansk/UN condolences).
  • Rostov Oblast (Novoshakhtinsk): Operatyvny ZSU posts video of a burning shopping center (TC), indicating a significant fire. TASS provides video of firefighters battling the blaze. ASTRA reports a firefighter died in the fire. TASS confirms body of deceased woman found. New ASTRA video shows firefighters battling the Novoshakhtinsk shopping center fire, confirming the scale of the incident and emergency response. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH, HIGH for casualty, HIGH for new video confirmation).
  • Internal RF Issues: RF Investigation Committee reports completion of an investigation into the supply of low-quality dry rations to RF Armed Forces. ASTRA reports on a criminal case against Baza editor-in-chief, citing a post. Khabarovsk Police warn about phone scams. State Duma proposed banning migrants from participating in underground fight clubs. Former Tambov Oblast Governor Maxim Egorov detained for large-scale bribery (TASS). FSB detained 9 Russians in 8 regions for calling for military assassinations (Operation Z, Colonelcassad reports). A police officer detained in Kherson Oblast for transmitting RF troop data to Ukrainian special services. First criminal case about "dropperstvo" (likely financial fraud) opened in Moscow. Committee of the Federation Council supported law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. Sever.Realii reports on Russian authorities planning to neuro-profile 10,000 teenagers to identify leaders/anti-leaders and increase patriotism. Arkhangel Spetsnaza reports new arrests of criminals. TASS reports the father of children who died from Dichlorvos in Krasnoyarsk refused to testify. Putin attended the farewell ceremony for the chairman of the Supreme Court, Irina Podnosova (TASS, ASTRA). TASS reports an Alfa-Bank app failure. TASS reports on ongoing discussions regarding WhatsApp/Telegram blocking in Russia. Mash on Donbass discusses water supply issues in DNR. TASS reports on repair of Moscow State University spire. TASS reports construction of high-speed rail Moscow-St. Petersburg begins 1 Sep. Matviyenko supported mandatory history exam. Matviyenko believes Russia needs sovereign AI and foreign AI should be blocked. X5 (retailer) stopped Mars product shipments to stores. News of Moscow teachers potentially losing jobs due to "demographic pit of the 90s." TASS reports Klishas believes law on benefits for civilian wives of fallen SVO participants should be expanded. TASS reports on a strike by workers at a Turkish NPP built by Rosatom. TASS reports Matviyenko claims "debunking" of Russian interference in US elections damaged US reputation. Sever.Realii reports on "fantastic level of repression" and rising treason cases. TASS reports a surge in email spam using old schemes. TASS reports price of AI-95 gasoline on exchange approaching historical maximum of Sep 2023. TASS reports Vice-Governor of Bryansk Oblast is facing arrest for abuse of power in defensive line construction. TASS reports searches are underway in the administration of Khimki, Moscow Oblast. TASS reports that the former head of Tambov Oblast, Egorov, faces up to 15 years in prison. TASS reports the Vice-Governor of Bryansk Oblast, Simonenko, has been charged with abuse of power related to defensive line construction. TASS reports the First Deputy Domodedovo City Prosecutor, Vadim Khlyustov, has been placed under restrictions for abuse of power. TASS reports Yevgeny Zhura, Head of Capital Construction Department of Bryansk Oblast, has been arrested for abuse of power. Colonelcassad reports Bryansk Vice-Governor sent to pre-trial detention for two months, accused of embezzlement in fortification construction. TASS reports Simonenko does not admit guilt. TASS reports a decision is being prepared to ban gasoline exports for 1-2 months from August 1st. Moscow news reports "demographic special forces" created by Matviyenko. TASS confirms X5 Group expects Mars product remnants to end by August-September and be replaced by analogues. Moscow news reports new health ministry amendments for medical records if Russians are on sick leave more than 4 times in six months. TASS reports former Klintsy City Council Deputy (Bryansk Oblast) Vladimir Reuk sentenced to 8 years in penal colony for fraud with SVO participant money. TASS reports investigation committee requests arrest of former Vice-Governor of Chelyabinsk Oblast Bogashov and two regional officials for abuse of power. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki reports court denied compensation to family of deceased soldier sent to front with injury. ASTRA reports a former Volgograd deputy, Mikhail Serenko, was sent to pre-trial detention for rehabilitation of Nazism and extortion. TASS reports "United Russia" official Gorelkin stated punishment for selling video game accounts only applies if done for committing crimes. TASS reports Mars is making efforts to find a mutually beneficial solution after X5 Group suspended product shipments. TASS reports that investigators are seeking the arrest of three Interior Ministry employees accused of receiving bribes from Baza Telegram channel journalists and exceeding official authority. TASS confirms that former Chelyabinsk Oblast Vice-Governor Bogashov has been charged with abuse of power. Север.Реалии reports that lawyer Maria Bontsler remains in custody until the end of September, with the session held without her. TASS reports that a bridge connecting M-2 and M-4 highways in Tula Oblast has been opened after reconstruction, indicating civilian infrastructure development/maintenance. AV БогомаZ (Bryansk Oblast Governor) posts photos from a meeting at a branch of Sechenov University, focusing on fast-paced construction work with 150 people involved, implying investment in infrastructure, possibly dual-use given his position. TASS reports the Ministry of Health developed amendments to the procedure for issuing sick leave, requiring medical commission data for those on sick leave four or more times in six months. Wildberries & Russ state that a senator's idea to ban order pickup points in residential buildings would negatively affect the country's economy, indicating internal economic debate. Sever.Realii reports FSB detained nine Russians for social media comments about the military, indicating continued internal suppression. ASTRA reports that "Andrey Sakharov Institute" and "Peace. Progress. Human Rights" movement were declared "undesirable" in Russia, further indicating suppression of civil society. Два майора posts a video depicting individuals with prosthetic limbs undergoing physical therapy and daily activities, implying recovery of veterans and promoting resilience. НгП раZVедка posts a video showing Russian military personnel in front of a MiG-29, thanking for electronic devices and promising victory, implying material support for RF aviation. TASS reports the Moscow court arrested Aleksandr Bogashov on charges of abuse of power. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki reports a military police officer beat an elderly serviceman, accompanied by a video showing the aftermath with injuries. TASS reports a court in Greece sentenced Russian citizen Vladimir Kotelnikov to 118 years and a €500,000 fine for organizing illegal migration. TASS reports the Gorky Automobile Plant (GAZ) will transition to a four-day work week in August due to a "critical fall in the car market." Novosti Moskvy (Moscow News) reports metro service disruptions from July 26-28 between Salarevo and Potapovo stations. TASS reports a 38-year-old factory employee was arrested for injuring colleagues with a bow and arrows. TASS reports the Zamoskvoretsky court in Moscow arrested Gleb Trifonov, editor-in-chief of Telegram channel Baza, for bribery of police officers to obtain criminal reports. TASS reports the Moscow court sent Eldar Belousov, Minister of Property of Chelyabinsk Oblast, to pre-trial detention for abuse of power. Novosti Moskvy (Moscow News) posts a photo of a man with tattoos and a caption about the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) stating tattoos are 'identifiers for the devil', reflecting a social/religious commentary, not military intelligence. TASS reports that Russia will begin creating children's playgrounds based on Russian folk toys, reported by Yampolskaya. RBK-Ukraina reports the largest Russian metallurgical plant announced a significant collapse in profits. TASS reports the Moscow court arrested the acting Head of Affairs of the Governor and Government of Chelyabinsk Oblast, Menzhinsky. Kotsnews posts multiple images with the caption "EVENING CHIMES," featuring various RF military-related stamps. TASS confirms "Andrey Sakharov Institute" declared "undesirable" by Ministry of Justice. Alex Parker Returns posts video depicting an incident in Omsk involving an Afghan migrant and an SVO veteran, implying societal tensions and promoting veteran image. ASTRA reports a criminal case opened against pilots for flying low over a beach in Leningrad Oblast; they are detained. Balitsky awarded the Order of Zaporizhzhia Oblast to Major General Ivan Popov, who was convicted of fraud and official forgery. TASS reports Chief Editor of Baza, Gleb Trifonov, refused to testify against himself during interrogation. Putin highly praised the idea of an application developed in Arkhangelsk Oblast for special operation veterans, to be integrated with the Max messenger. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for all internal RF issues, HIGH for Kotsnews stamps, HIGH for new TASS and ASTRA reports, HIGH for Alex Parker Returns video, HIGH for Popov award, HIGH for Trifonov report, HIGH for Putin's praise).
  • Cambodia-Thailand Border: Operation Z reports "fierce clashes" on the Cambodia-Thailand border. TASS confirms MLRS strikes by Cambodian forces in Surin province, Thailand, and Thailand responded with an airstrike. Alex Parker Returns reports 11 civilians killed in Thailand from Cambodian strikes. TASS reports 24k Russian tourists in Thailand, few dozen in Cambodia, advising caution. RBK-Ukraina reports Cambodia has called on Thailand to cease hostilities and withdraw troops. Alex Parker Returns posts a statement attributed to Trump about working on reconciliation between Thailand and Cambodia, indicating continued international interest in the conflict. Kotsnews posts a video noting that "neither Thailand nor Cambodia benefit from the war, but it benefits third players," implying external instigation. TASS states RF expresses concern about escalation and calls for restraint. Rybar posts an image with caption "Escalation on the border of Thailand and Cambodia," confirming continued RF focus on this conflict. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a satirical photo with a caption claiming Ukrainian tanks are fighting on the Cambodia-Thailand border, indicating this conflict is being used in Ukraine's information space. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for clashes, HIGH for casualties, HIGH for diplomatic developments, HIGH for Alex Parker Returns report, HIGH for Kotsnews implication, HIGH for TASS statement, HIGH for Rybar image, HIGH for Ukrainian satirical use).
  • Cyprus: TASS reports uncontained wildfires and two deaths. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for natural disaster).
  • Kazakhstan (Aqtobe): ASTRA reports on an Azerbaijani publication identifying three military personnel allegedly involved in downing an AZAL plane near Aktau. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for new information).
  • Lithuania: Vooin DV reports Lithuanian Armed Forces Commander General Raimundas Vaikšnoras stated the country has prepared infrastructure for additional US and NATO troops to enhance alliance presence in the region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Red Sea: Colonelcassad reports UKMTO received a distress signal regarding a vessel seizure in the Red Sea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Syria: Rybar notes a "request from Damascus." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Black Sea Region: Rybar reports a "massive UAV raid" in the Black Sea region. Arkhangel Spetsnaza refers to "resumption of attacks in the Black Sea," indicating continued activity. New photo from Colonelcassad with caption "Resumption of attacks in the Black Sea," confirming the narrative of continued activity. Colonelcassad posts a photo of "Massive UAV raid in the Black Sea region." Putin states that plans to create modern naval forces will be fully implemented and Russia will ensure its security in all areas of the World Ocean. "Two Majors" posts a video of an FPV anti-air drone called "Rocket," showing a drone in flight approaching a body of water, possibly for targeting naval assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH, HIGH for new photo confirmation, HIGH for Putin's statement, HIGH for FPV drone video).
• Kyiv: SBU prevented a terrorist attack in a cafe in central Kyiv, apprehending a female suspect recruited by Russian special services who was attempting to plant IEDs (RBK-Ukraina, Operatyvny ZSU, TSAPLIYENKO_UKRAINE FIGHTS). STERNENKO releases video of SBU spokesperson confirming prevention of terror attack in Kyiv, including images of the suspect and seized explosives. RBK-Ukraina reports traffic restrictions for cargo transport in Kyiv due to heat. Air raid alert announced for Kyiv. UAF Air Force reports the air threat has been cleared in Kyiv. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the Israeli early warning system for air threats became operational in Kyiv last night. KMVA reports a meeting with International Monetary Fund representatives, indicating a focus on economic stability and international financial support. STERNENKO posts video of a large crowd gathered in Kyiv, likely a protest or rally. RBK-Ukraina reports a third day of protests under the Franko Theater in Kyiv against law №12414 regarding NABU. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH, HIGH for traffic restriction, HIGH for air alert, HIGH for air cleared, HIGH for Israeli system, HIGH for IMF meeting, HIGH for STERNENKO video of crowd, HIGH for RBK-Ukraina protest report).
• Estonia: RBK-Ukraina reports Estonia is sounding the alarm about Russia moving EW systems closer to NATO. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• New Tactical Development - Lancet Intercept: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet loitering munition. Два майора posts a video analyzing Ukrainian claims of an "anti-Shahed reusable FPV drone," showing a fixed-wing drone and tracking another aircraft, suggesting RF attempts to counter this narrative or understand the technology. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - visually plausible but requires independent verification of FPV drone's reusability and explicit Lancet interception, MEDIUM for Two Majors analysis of the claim).
• New RF Naval Commissioning: MoD Russia posts video of Putin participating in a ceremony for raising the naval ensign on the 'Knyaz Pozharsky' nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine in Severodvinsk, highlighting continued strategic naval development. Colonelcassad posts a video of representatives of military groups discussing the special military operation as of July 24, 2025, which may include details on naval operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Information Operation - "Satanists in AFU": Colonelcassad posts video and multiple photos, including ritualistic items and a pentagram tapestry, with the caption "Satanists in the AFU. Nothing new." This is a clear attempt at dehumanizing propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for the propaganda attempt, LOW - for factual basis of the claim).
• RF Information Operation - "Chemical Weapon Use": Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video of GUR emblem with text overlays "NOW I WILL POISON WITH GAS" and "The occupiers continue to use chemical weapons," followed by a declaration of retribution. This suggests RF is engaging in or being accused of chemical weapon use, prompting a GUR response. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for the GUR message, LOW for independent verification of chemical weapon use).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• RF (Amur Oblast): Taiga complicates search efforts for the missing An-24. Crash site on a mountain slope confirms complex terrain. Rescuers expect to reach crash site by sunset. Weather suitable but variable. TASS confirms the crashed An-24 was attempting to land in 10-point cloud cover and mountainous terrain, indicating adverse conditions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH, HIGH for new details on weather/terrain impact).
• RF (Volgograd Oblast): Hurricane downed 8 high-voltage power line poles, leaving parts of settlements without electricity and water. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF (Moscow): Moscow news reports weather forecasts are like a lottery. Moscow news confirms "tropical rains" have reached Moscow. New Moscow news video shows paddleboarding on a flooded street with submerged cars, confirming severe flooding impacting urban infrastructure. Operatyvny ZSU posts video showing heavy rain, flooded streets with cars navigating deep water, and a person paddleboarding in Moscow, confirming severe flooding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH, HIGH for confirmation of heavy rain, HIGH for video evidence of flooding).
• Cyprus: Significant wildfires raging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Kyiv: Heat has led to cargo transport restrictions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• No other new significant weather or environmental factors reported directly impacting operations within the past hour. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF: Air defense (AD) remains on high alert nationwide, actively engaging and responding to missile and UAV threats (2 UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk, 90 of 103 RF UAVs downed overnight, plus 1 cruise missile, 6 GABs, and 217 UAVs claimed by RF MoD). Emergency services are actively responding to significant civilian infrastructure damage and casualties in Odesa, Cherkasy, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv. UAF General Staff provides updated RF loss figures (over 1,285 personnel claimed by RF MoD) and situational reports (172 combat engagements over the past day) and announces "Ballistics" (armor/equipment manufacturer) as a new partner in "Army+" program. Kyiv Oblast activated a differentiated air raid alert system. Ukrainian units continue fundraising for equipment, including Arkhangel Spetsnaza's continued collection efforts. Ukrainian forces (MURAMASA, STERNENKO) continue successful drone strikes against RF personnel. Coordination Staff for POWs confirmed a successful prisoner exchange, and Shef Hayabusa posts a list of exchanged POWs. General Staff posts video of successful drone strikes. SBU prevented dual terrorist act in Mykolaiv, apprehending FSB agents (Shef Hayabusa video). Zelenskiy / Official reports Russia launched 103 attack drones and 4 missiles overnight, and showed photo/video aftermath of KAB strikes on Kharkiv. DSHV confirm return of paratroopers. RBK-Ukraina reports Ukraine is scaling up production of explosives. General Staff posts photos of Odesa marines on combat duty. General Staff provided "tactical analysis" of image and video messages. RBK-Ukraina reports SBU prevented terror attack in Kyiv. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Administration reports receiving three new ambulances from philanthropists. The General Prosecutor's Office reports the detention of a deserting serviceman and his accomplice for an attempted robbery in Odesa Oblast. General Prosecutor's Office provides extensive documentation of Kharkiv damage, including photos/video. Olexiy Biloshitsky posts video of patrol police evacuating citizens from damaged houses in Cherkasy after the RF attack. Butusov Plus posts video of drone strikes eliminating RF personnel, including graphic depictions of injuries. Zviezdec Mangustu posts video of 43rd OMBR soldiers collecting drone batteries and soliciting donations for drone equipment. RBK-Ukraina posts an urgent collection for drones for the 32nd Steel Brigade. The Coordination Staff for POWs held a meeting with families of the "Bureviy" Assault Guard and soldiers held in Sverdlovsk colony. Zelenskiy / Official and RBK-Ukraina report that President Zelenskyy approved a draft law strengthening the law enforcement system, anti-corruption bodies, and protecting them from Russian influence. Oleg Syniehubov posts photos, likely of returned POWs, captioned "Our people are home again," indicating a successful POW exchange. RBK-Ukraina releases a video discussing the distinction between "combatants" and "civilians" in international law and negotiations, framing forced deportation of civilians as war crimes. The Coordination Staff for POWs conducted a meeting with families of missing persons in Derhachi, Kharkiv Oblast. The General Prosecutor's Office reports on stopping the work of a transnational hacker forum with French colleagues and Europol. DSHV posts a video featuring a young Ukrainian soldier, focused on recruitment and motivation. General Prosecutor's Office posts images of their anti-fraud call center operations, emphasizing systemic combat against such crime. Butusov Plus posts video of a Ukrainian drone disarming an unexploded Russian bomb, then detonating it, killing an RF soldier, highlighting precision strike capability and innovation. RBK-Ukraina reports on former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny's forecast that the war may last until 2034, which is being used in RF narrative, but is a recognized statement. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo of Ukrainian boxer Usyk, noting he has 30 days to agree to his next fight, indicating a focus on civilian sports news. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 confirms receiving two donations, indicating continued reliance on external support. РБК-Україна reports on military registration for 17-year-olds, reminding about the deadline and procedure, indicating active conscription/mobilization efforts. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts drone footage demonstrating weekly destruction of over 50 Russian reconnaissance drones, with a clear message of military support and impending victory, indicating active counter-drone efforts. STERNENKO posts a video related to a Ukrainian parliamentary session and language policy, indicating focus on internal political developments. Шеф Hayabusa posts a photo with text discussing why protests are forbidden during wartime, indicating government measures to maintain public order and counter potential destabilization. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAЇНЕ FIGHTS reports that the Israeli early warning system for air threats became operational in Kyiv last night. Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) reports a meeting with International Monetary Fund (IMF) representatives, indicating continued engagement with international financial institutions for economic stability. STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF (SSO A) engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast with "Optical Rusoriz" (likely drone strikes), showing destruction of vehicles and personnel. UAF Air Force reports a new ballistic missile threat from the northeast, indicating heightened alert. This threat has now been cleared. Butusov Plus posts videos from SBU's "A" Special Operations Center, claiming over 2100 Russian soldiers eliminated in less than a month through industrial-scale drone operations. UAF Air Force reports a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast (Khotin), heading southwest. UAF Air Force reports an enemy UAV (Shahed) on the northern outskirts of Shostka (Sumy Oblast), with assets engaged. Zelenskiy / Official reports a good conversation with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, indicating continued diplomatic engagement and support. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy proposed Germany participate in the expertise of the NABU draft law. Operatyvny ZSU reports on Zelenskyy's conversation with German Chancellor. KMVA posts photos and confirms Zelenskyy's conversation with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Operatyvny ZSU reports that after the new bill comes into force, NABU employees with access to state secrets will be required to undergo polygraph tests organized by the SBU. STERNENKO posts an update on "Rusoriz" drone deficit, implying high expenditure. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukraїni (Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine) post video of drone strikes by 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade "Sons of Khors" destroying RF personnel and equipment in the area of Mali Shcherbaky. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy submitted a draft law to the Rada with norms on the independence of NABU and SAP. STERNENKO reports that a new draft law from the President regarding NABU and SAP has been submitted to the Rada, aimed at strengthening their powers. NABU has supported the new draft law from the President, which aims to restore all procedural powers and guarantees of independence for NABU and SAP. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms that draft law №13533 submitted by Zelenskyy, which is urgent, restores all procedural powers and guarantees of independence for NABU and SAP. RBK-Ukraina reports that NABU reacted to Zelenskyy's draft law on the independence of anti-corruption bodies, indicating ongoing internal political processes. RBK-Ukraina reports that Stefanchuk (presumably Ruslan Stefanchuk, Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada) stated when the Rada will consider Zelenskyy's draft law on NABU. ОТУ "Харків" posts new drone footage showing "Molniya" strike UAVs destroying Russian observation posts and a UAZ 'Bukhanka' in Kharkiv Oblast. STERNENKO updates that the possibility of changing investigative jurisdiction in some cases during wartime existed before July 22, clarifying current law. RBK-Ukraina reports an enemy drone fell in Poltava Oblast due to air defense work. "Ukrzaliznytsia" (Ukrainian Railways) is strengthening document control during train boarding following complaints about verification, indicating a measure to enhance security and prevent unauthorized travel. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet loitering munition, highlighting an innovative UAF counter-drone tactic. RBK-Ukraina reports NABU responded to "new risks" in Zelenskyy's new draft law. Oleg Syniehubov posts photos confirming NABU and SAP supported draft law №13533. UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Bilopillia (Sumy), northern Chernihiv, and border of Kharkiv/Poltava, with assets engaged. STERNENKO reports Shahed launches from 4 directions. UAF Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast from the north, currently flying south. UAF Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs on northern Sumy, course south. UAF Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs near Bilopillia, heading south. New groups of enemy strike UAVs reported on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, course west/southwest. UAF General Staff publishes photos showing a young female athlete with three gold medals and three European records, likely from a sporting event, to boost national morale. Operatyvny ZSU posts a video featuring a UAF soldier surrounded by drones asking for donations for FPV transceivers, emphasizing the critical need for drone components. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that German HENSOLDT will produce a classified number of TRML-4D and SPEXER 2000 radars for Ukraine for €340 million. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RFU: Continues deep strike operations targeting Ukrainian territory with UAVs (Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Poltava) and missiles/GABs (Cherkasy, Kharkiv FAB-3000/UMPB-5, Donetsk GABs, Sumy GABs, Kherson GAB, Synelnykivskyi district). Aggressively promoting claimed battlefield successes (RF MoD claims strikes on assembly and storage workshops for UAVs, fuel, and weapons depots). MOD Russia claims Grad MLRS use near Krasnoarmeysk. RF AD actively engaged in defending its territory (Krasnodar Krai, Crimea), claiming 39 UAVs downed. Conducting prisoner exchanges and information operations. Colonelcassad reports 39 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed/intercepted. MOD Russia posted video of a naval exercise ("Ilyusky Shtorm") with missile launches. Putin and Mirziyoyev expressed satisfaction with strategic partnership between RF and Uzbekistan. MOD Russia claims strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities powering the military-industrial complex (MIC). "Vooin DV" released video of strikes by 336th Marine Brigade and 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment against enemy personnel and equipment. TASS publishes video of Putin attending the farewell ceremony for Supreme Court Chairman Podnosova. RF milbloggers "Two Majors" post photos from "Soldier's Life" rubric, possibly depicting RF personnel in the field. Colonelcassad and Basurin o glavnom publish videos of "Ilyusky Shtorm" naval exercise and FPV drone strikes. TASS reports Russian delegation returned from Istanbul talks. Alex Parker Returns posts photos and video, some implying the Crimean Bridge, some soliciting donations for SVO. Alex Parker Returns also posts a video of three individuals in military camouflage expressing gratitude for humanitarian aid. Starshie Eddy posts a video of a street altercation, unclear military relevance. Kotsnews asks "Is Russia preparing for a big war?" RF milbloggers "Two Majors" post photos, including a damaged car, an officer's portrait, and a "Zaporizhzhia Oblast governor" graphic. New MOD Russia summary on special military operation released by Colonelcassad. New "Two Majors" video shows three RF personnel in military attire with a camouflage truck, displaying morale and gratitude for supporters. New TASS video shows Belousov conducting a meeting on digital and technological development of RF MoD, indicating focus on technological integration and C2. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeast direction, likely for GAB launches. MoD Russia posts video of Giatsint-S crews striking AFU temporary deployment areas in South Donetsk direction. WarGonzo posts video of a Russian soldier who lost a foot after stepping on a mine in a combat zone. "ZONA SVO" posts videos, one implying drone effectiveness against a trench, another featuring an RF soldier criticizing bloggers. "Narodnaya militsiya DNR" posts video claiming destruction of a UAF UAV control point in Poltavka. Rybar posts a photo with the caption "Patriot in short supply", likely an information operation. Gleb Nikitin (Nizhny Novgorod Governor) posts photos and video of substantial humanitarian aid deliveries to RF forces, including Mavics, FPV drones, optical sights, vehicles (ZIL, UAZ, Niva, motorcycles), and a tracked robotic platform "Molot", indicating significant regional support. Alex Parker Returns posts multiple images with captions referring to Yulia Latynina and "Elephante" (Sloikha), implying a critical political commentary related to "autocracy and witch hunt" in Ukraine, citing Politico. Fighterbomber implies that after "negotiations," a "Hummer" (likely a reference to a source or a person) has become active, indicating intelligence flow or information ops. Colonelcassad posts photos claiming the elimination of Brazilian mercenaries in the SVO zone. Two Majors post a photo criticizing "Soviet propaganda of the late period", likely a jab at Ukrainian information efforts. Kadyrov_95 posts a video congratulating Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev on his birthday, featuring a high-level diplomatic meeting with Putin, indicating continued RF diplomatic outreach. ТАСС reports that Putin stated plans to create modern naval forces will be fully implemented and Russia will ensure its security in all areas of the World Ocean, signaling long-term military development goals. Two Majors post a video showcasing the "HEALER" IFAK, providing a full component overview, indicating a focus on tactical medical readiness or promotion of specific gear. НгП раZVедка posts a weekly author's column, likely a summary of military events or political commentary from a milblogger perspective. Colonelcassad posts video of a FPV drone strike by the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the "Vostok" grouping against a Ukrainian forces pickup truck in the South Donetsk direction, claiming destruction. WarGonzo posts an image claiming that Ukrainian HUR is increasing drone attacks with the help of a runaway Russian businessman, likely a disinformation effort to discredit Ukrainian intelligence. Kotsnews posts a video titled "Kill 'Baba Yaga'," showing drone footage, likely referring to attempts to neutralize a Ukrainian heavy FPV/bomber drone, indicating focus on counter-drone tactics. TASS reports Putin is visiting Severodvinsk with a working visit, a key naval base and shipbuilding center, indicating continued focus on military-industrial complex and naval development. "Two Majors" posts a video of an FPV anti-air drone called "Rocket," potentially indicating development of new counter-drone capabilities or offensive capabilities against aerial targets. Военкор Котенок posts a video of an FPV drone ambush on a Ukrainian Forces pickup truck in the South Donetsk direction, claiming destruction. Операция Z posts a video showing aerial footage of military operations near Dmytrov (Mirnohrad), including strikes on an AFU shelter and UAV equipment, indicating active offensive operations and targeting of UAF assets. Старше Эдды posts a video discussing a "scandalous МВД-Медиа video," implying internal issues or controversies within RF Ministry of Internal Affairs' information dissemination. Бутусов ПЛЮС posts graphic photos with text critical of a Russian soldier fighting in Ukraine, aiming to demoralize RF forces and highlight the human cost. TASS provides video footage of Putin addressing officials and expressing condolences for the Amur region plane crash, indicating state attention to the civilian tragedy. AV БогомаZ (Bryansk Oblast Governor) posts photos of a newly constructed ice palace in Bryansk, indicating domestic investment in civilian infrastructure. MoD Russia posts video of mine action engineers demining border areas of Belgorod region, demonstrating ongoing efforts to secure RF territory. Два майора posts a video depicting individuals with prosthetic limbs undergoing physical therapy and daily activities, implying recovery of veterans and promoting resilience. НгП раZVедка posts a video showing Russian military personnel in front of a MiG-29, thanking for electronic devices and promising victory, implying material support for RF aviation. Colonelcassad claims liberation of Shevchenko and Pivdenny micro-districts in Chasiv Yar by 98th VDV, and envelopment of Zemlianky micro-district, supported by multiple photo messages of maps. Z комитет + карта СВО posts a tactical map of Novopavlovskoe direction showing occupied territories and settlements under different control, with RF advancing in #ZelenyyHay. Военкор Котенок posts photos and text from Russian MoD claiming liberation of Novoekonomichne and Zverevo in Pokrovsk direction. WarGonzo posts a video from "Aldan", implying a unit from a penal colony, engaged in combat. «Зона СВО» posts a video of a serviceman of the LNR Ministry of Defense apologizing for past behavior, likely an attempt at narrative control and disciplining. Colonelcassad reports RF MoD claim of liberation of Yablonovka on Konstantinovka direction. Два майора posts a photo meme, likely political or social commentary, suggesting the importance of learning history. Colonelcassad posts an animated map showing alleged Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian territory from July 23-24, highlighting strikes in Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, and Cherkasy regions, and categorizing munitions used. This is a visual representation of RF claims. Операция Z posts a video featuring a Latvian MEP questioning the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia, likely for external consumption. MoD Russia posts video of Putin raising the naval ensign on the 'Knyaz Pozharsky' nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, reinforcing strategic naval development. Basurin o glavnom posts video showing a BM-21 Grad MLRS in action, reconnaissance drone use, and mine clearance, indicating combined arms operations. Военкор Котенок posts video of a tank moving through a wooded area with combat signs, suggesting active ground operations. Kadyrov_95 posts video of volunteers departing Grozny airport for the front, indicating continued recruitment and deployment. TASS posts photo of Hulk Hogan, reporting his death (neutral news). ASTRA posts photos related to a 15-year-old girl in Bryansk being denied payments for childbirth, indicating internal social/economic issues. Kotsnews posts multiple images of RF military-themed stamps, related to "EVENING CHIMES," suggesting internal information dissemination or propaganda. Two Majors post a photo stating Zelenskyy introduced a bill to Rada prohibiting Prosecutor General from giving instructions to NABU/SAP (disinformation). TASS confirms "Andrey Sakharov Institute" declared "undesirable" by Ministry of Justice. Alex Parker Returns posts video depicting an incident in Omsk involving an Afghan migrant and an SVO veteran, likely promoting veteran image and anti-immigrant sentiment. ASTRA reports a criminal case opened against pilots for flying low over a beach in Leningrad Oblast; they are detained. Basurin o glavnom posts a political cartoon portraying a Ukrainian general attempting to involve Trump in the war. Fighterbomber posts a video from an aircraft cockpit, indicating continued military aviation activity. Operatsiya Z posts a video of "Russian Spring War Correspondents" showing paratroopers destroying Ukrainian positions and advancing on the Sumy front, claiming offensive action. «Зона СВО» posts a photo with text discussing why Special Forces "Akhmat" or Apti Alaudinov are blamed for "enemy failures," suggesting internal RF narrative management. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for general actions, MEDIUM for specific RF claimed successes, HIGH for FAB-3000/UMPB-5 use, HIGH for AD engagements, HIGH for Putin's public appearance, MEDIUM for RF milblogger content, HIGH for naval exercise video, MEDIUM for Alex Parker Returns' varied content, LOW for Starshie Eddy video, HIGH for Kotsnews framing, HIGH for new MOD summary, HIGH for milblogger morale video, HIGH for Belousov meeting, HIGH for tactical aviation activity, HIGH for Giatsint-S strike video, HIGH for WarGonzo video, HIGH for ZONA SVO videos, HIGH for DNR militia claim, HIGH for Gleb Nikitin humanitarian aid, HIGH for Alex Parker Returns political commentary, HIGH for Fighterbomber implication, HIGH for Colonelcassad claim of mercenaries, HIGH for Two Majors propaganda, HIGH for Kadyrov_95 video, HIGH for Putin naval statement, HIGH for IFAK video, HIGH for FPV drone strike, HIGH for WarGonzo disinformation, HIGH for Kotsnews counter-drone, HIGH for Putin Severodvinsk visit, HIGH for FPV anti-air drone, HIGH for Военкор Котенок ambush, HIGH for Операция Z offensive, HIGH for Старше Эдды internal issue, HIGH for Бутусов ПЛЮС demoralization, HIGH for Putin condolences, HIGH for AV БогомаZ civilian infrastructure, HIGH for MoD Russia demining, HIGH for Два майора veteran recovery, HIGH for НгП раZVедка material support, HIGH for Colonelcassad Chasiv Yar claims, HIGH for Z комитет map, HIGH for Военкор Котенок territorial claims, HIGH for WarGonzo penal colony, HIGH for Зона СВО narrative control, HIGH for Colonelcassad Yablonovka claim, HIGH for Два майора meme, HIGH for Colonelcassad animated map, HIGH for Операция Z Latvian MEP video, HIGH for MoD Russia submarine commissioning, HIGH for Basurin o glavnom video, HIGH for Военкор Котенок tank video, HIGH for Kadyrov_95 volunteer video, HIGH for TASS Hulk Hogan, HIGH for ASTRA Bryansk girl, HIGH for Kotsnews stamps, HIGH for Colonelcassad's "Satanists in AFU" propaganda, HIGH for Two Majors NABU/SAP disinformation, HIGH for TASS confirmation of "undesirable" NGO, HIGH for Alex Parker Returns video, HIGH for ASTRA report on pilots, HIGH for Basurin o glavnom political cartoon, HIGH for Fighterbomber cockpit video, HIGH for Operatsiya Z Sumy claim, HIGH for Зона СВО narrative management).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• RF (Amur Oblast): Taiga complicates search efforts for the missing An-24. Crash site on a mountain slope confirms complex terrain. Rescuers expect to reach crash site by sunset. Weather suitable but variable. TASS confirms the crashed An-24 was attempting to land in 10-point cloud cover and mountainous terrain, indicating adverse conditions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH, HIGH for new details on weather/terrain impact).
• RF (Volgograd Oblast): Hurricane downed 8 high-voltage power line poles, leaving parts of settlements without electricity and water. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF (Moscow): Moscow news reports weather forecasts are like a lottery. Moscow news confirms "tropical rains" have reached Moscow. New Moscow news video shows paddleboarding on a flooded street with submerged cars, confirming severe flooding impacting urban infrastructure. Operatyvny ZSU posts video showing heavy rain, flooded streets with cars navigating deep water, and a person paddleboarding in Moscow, confirming severe flooding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH, HIGH for confirmation of heavy rain, HIGH for video evidence of flooding).
• Cyprus: Significant wildfires raging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Kyiv: Heat has led to cargo transport restrictions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• No other new significant weather or environmental factors reported directly impacting operations within the past hour. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF: Air defense (AD) remains on high alert nationwide, actively engaging and responding to missile and UAV threats (2 UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk, 90 of 103 RF UAVs downed overnight, plus 1 cruise missile, 6 GABs, and 217 UAVs claimed by RF MoD). Emergency services are actively responding to significant civilian infrastructure damage and casualties in Odesa, Cherkasy, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv. UAF General Staff provides updated RF loss figures (over 1,285 personnel claimed by RF MoD) and situational reports (172 combat engagements over the past day) and announces "Ballistics" (armor/equipment manufacturer) as a new partner in "Army+" program. Kyiv Oblast activated a differentiated air raid alert system. Ukrainian units continue fundraising for equipment, including Arkhangel Spetsnaza's continued collection efforts. Ukrainian forces (MURAMASA, STERNENKO) continue successful drone strikes against RF personnel. Coordination Staff for POWs confirmed a successful prisoner exchange, and Shef Hayabusa posts a list of exchanged POWs. General Staff posts video of successful drone strikes. SBU prevented dual terrorist act in Mykolaiv, apprehending FSB agents (Shef Hayabusa video). Zelenskiy / Official reports Russia launched 103 attack drones and 4 missiles overnight, and showed photo/video aftermath of KAB strikes on Kharkiv. DSHV confirm return of paratroopers. RBK-Ukraina reports Ukraine is scaling up production of explosives. General Staff posts photos of Odesa marines on combat duty. General Staff provided "tactical analysis" of image and video messages. RBK-Ukraina reports SBU prevented terror attack in Kyiv. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Administration reports receiving three new ambulances from philanthropists. The General Prosecutor's Office reports the detention of a deserting serviceman and his accomplice for an attempted robbery in Odesa Oblast. General Prosecutor's Office provides extensive documentation of Kharkiv damage, including photos/video. Olexiy Biloshitsky posts video of patrol police evacuating citizens from damaged houses in Cherkasy after the RF attack. Butusov Plus posts video of drone strikes eliminating RF personnel, including graphic depictions of injuries. Zviezdec Mangustu posts video of 43rd OMBR soldiers collecting drone batteries and soliciting donations for drone equipment. RBK-Ukraina posts an urgent collection for drones for the 32nd Steel Brigade. The Coordination Staff for POWs held a meeting with families of the "Bureviy" Assault Guard and soldiers held in Sverdlovsk colony. Zelenskiy / Official and RBK-Ukraina report that President Zelenskyy approved a draft law strengthening the law enforcement system, anti-corruption bodies, and protecting them from Russian influence. Oleg Syniehubov posts photos, likely of returned POWs, captioned "Our people are home again," indicating a successful POW exchange. RBK-Ukraina releases a video discussing the distinction between "combatants" and "civilians" in international law and negotiations, framing forced deportation of civilians as war crimes. The Coordination Staff for POWs conducted a meeting with families of missing persons in Derhachi, Kharkiv Oblast. The General Prosecutor's Office reports on stopping the work of a transnational hacker forum with French colleagues and Europol. DSHV posts a video featuring a young Ukrainian soldier, focused on recruitment and motivation. General Prosecutor's Office posts images of their anti-fraud call center operations, emphasizing systemic combat against such crime. Butusov Plus posts video of a Ukrainian drone disarming an unexploded Russian bomb, then detonating it, killing an RF soldier, highlighting precision strike capability and innovation. RBK-Ukraina reports on former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny's forecast that the war may last until 2034, which is being used in RF narrative, but is a recognized statement. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo of Ukrainian boxer Usyk, noting he has 30 days to agree to his next fight, indicating a focus on civilian sports news. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 confirms receiving two donations, indicating continued reliance on external support. РБК-Україна reports on military registration for 17-year-olds, reminding about the deadline and procedure, indicating active conscription/mobilization efforts. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts drone footage demonstrating weekly destruction of over 50 Russian reconnaissance drones, with a clear message of military support and impending victory, indicating active counter-drone efforts. STERNENKO posts a video related to a Ukrainian parliamentary session and language policy, indicating focus on internal political developments. Шеф Hayabusa posts a photo with text discussing why protests are forbidden during wartime, indicating government measures to maintain public order and counter potential destabilization. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAЇНЕ FIGHTS reports that the Israeli early warning system for air threats became operational in Kyiv last night. Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) reports a meeting with International Monetary Fund (IMF) representatives, indicating continued engagement with international financial institutions for economic stability. STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF (SSO A) engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast with "Optical Rusoriz" (likely drone strikes), showing destruction of vehicles and personnel. UAF Air Force reports a new ballistic missile threat from the northeast, indicating heightened alert. This threat has now been cleared. Butusov Plus posts videos from SBU's "A" Special Operations Center, claiming over 2100 Russian soldiers eliminated in less than a month through industrial-scale drone operations. UAF Air Force reports a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast (Khotin), heading southwest. UAF Air Force reports an enemy UAV (Shahed) on the northern outskirts of Shostka (Sumy Oblast), with assets engaged. Zelenskiy / Official reports a good conversation with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, indicating continued diplomatic engagement and support. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy proposed Germany participate in the expertise of the NABU draft law. Operatyvny ZSU reports on Zelenskyy's conversation with German Chancellor. KMVA posts photos and confirms Zelenskyy's conversation with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Operatyvny ZSU reports that after the new bill comes into force, NABU employees with access to state secrets will be required to undergo polygraph tests organized by the SBU. STERNENKO posts an update on "Rusoriz" drone deficit, implying high expenditure. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukraїni (Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine) post video of drone strikes by 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade "Sons of Khors" destroying RF personnel and equipment in the area of Mali Shcherbaky. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy submitted a draft law to the Rada with norms on the independence of NABU and SAP. STERNENKO reports that a new draft law from the President regarding NABU and SAP has been submitted to the Rada, aimed at strengthening their powers. NABU has supported the new draft law from the President, which aims to restore all procedural powers and guarantees of independence for NABU and SAP. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms that draft law №13533 submitted by Zelenskyy, which is urgent, restores all procedural powers and guarantees of independence for NABU and SAP. RBK-Ukraina reports that NABU reacted to Zelenskyy's draft law on the independence of anti-corruption bodies, indicating ongoing internal political processes. RBK-Ukraina reports that Stefanchuk (presumably Ruslan Stefanchuk, Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada) stated when the Rada will consider Zelenskyy's draft law on NABU. ОТУ "Харків" posts new drone footage showing "Molniya" strike UAVs destroying Russian observation posts and a UAZ 'Bukhanka' in Kharkiv Oblast, highlighting continued successful defense. STERNENKO updates that the possibility of changing investigative jurisdiction in some cases during wartime existed before July 22, clarifying current law. RBK-Ukraina reports an enemy drone fell in Poltava Oblast due to air defense work. "Ukrzaliznytsia" (Ukrainian Railways) is strengthening document control during train boarding following complaints about verification, indicating a measure to enhance security and prevent unauthorized travel. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet loitering munition, highlighting an innovative UAF counter-drone tactic. RBK-Ukraina reports NABU responded to "new risks" in Zelenskyy's new draft law. Oleg Syniehubov posts photos confirming NABU and SAP supported draft law №13533. UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Bilopillia (Sumy), northern Chernihiv, and border of Kharkiv/Poltava, with assets engaged. STERNENKO reports Shahed launches from 4 directions. UAF Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast from the north, currently flying south. UAF Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs on northern Sumy, course south. UAF Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs near Bilopillia, heading south. New groups of enemy strike UAVs reported on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, course west/southwest. UAF General Staff publishes photos showing a young female athlete with three gold medals and three European records, likely from a sporting event, to boost national morale. Operatyvny ZSU posts a video featuring a UAF soldier surrounded by drones asking for donations for FPV transceivers, emphasizing the critical need for drone components. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that German HENSOLDT will produce a classified number of TRML-4D and SPEXER 2000 radars for Ukraine for €340 million. RBK-Ukraina reports a third day of protests in Kyiv against Law №12414 regarding NABU. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Enhanced Deep Strike Capacity (UAV/Missile/GAB): Continued widespread and damaging UAV/missile attacks (103 drones, 4 missiles last night, 90 drones and 1 cruise missile downed by UAF). Confirmed operational use of the FAB-3000 M-54 UMPK and UMPB-5 in Kharkiv signifies substantial increase in destructive power. Use of shrapnel munitions in Cherkasy indicates diverse arsenal. GABs confirmed on Donetsk (repeated launches), Sumy (repeated launches), Kharkiv, and Kherson. RF claims of precision FAB strike on a bridge in Donetsk indicate intent to disrupt Ukrainian logistics. MOD Russia claims high-precision strikes on energy objects feeding Ukraine's MIC and on UAV assembly and storage facilities. New RF milblogger video from Kherson shows active drone operations and strikes, indicating continued deep strike capability. MoD Russia video shows Giatsint-S artillery strikes on AFU temporary deployment areas. Narodnaya militsiya DNR posts video claiming destruction of a UAF UAV control point, indicating direct targeting of UAF drone C2. Vooin DV video of FPV drone strike on a Ukrainian Forces pickup truck in Sumy Oblast confirms continued FPV drone effectiveness and targeting of tactical vehicles. Colonelcassad's reference to UMPB D-30SN Missile System implies development or deployment of new guided munitions systems. UAF Air Force reports new GAB launches on Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Sumy, confirming continued capability. "Two Majors" video of an FPV anti-air drone "Rocket" indicates potential development for counter-air or novel offensive capabilities. НгП раZVедка posts a video showing Russian military personnel in front of a MiG-29, thanking for electronic devices and promising victory, implying material support for RF aviation. New ballistic missile threat from northeast. New threat of aviation weapon use in Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Fighterbomber's video shows an explosion hitting a large urban building, confirming continued precision strike capability. Fighterbomber's photo message claiming three FAB-500 strikes on the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs indicates precision targeting of administrative buildings. The AFU Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Two Majors post a video from Zaporizhzhia front, showing drone footage of explosions on targets with a Ukrainian flag overlay and Russian insignia, suggesting effective RF drone operations. Vooin DV posts videos from a drone showing a thermal image of vehicles being engaged, and another showing a multi-rotor drone in flight over a landscape, suggesting continued reconnaissance and strike capabilities. The confirmed use of P-800 Onyx anti-ship missiles against ground targets in Odesa (from previous daily report) marks a significant new capability and threat to coastal infrastructure. Basurin o glavnom video showcasing BM-21 Grad, recon drones, and mine clearance indicates combined arms offensive capabilities. Fighterbomber posts new video from a military aircraft cockpit, confirming continued tactical aviation operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Escalated Offensive Operations (Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Axes): Transition to larger, coordinated company-sized mechanized assaults on Pokrovsk axis. Claimed river crossing in Kharkiv indicates continued localized offensive capabilities. Claims of advances in Zaporizhzhia, and northward towards Stepnohirsk. Colonelcassad reports active offensive and envelopment on Kostiantynivka direction. "Operatsiya Z" and Colonelcassad continue to publish drone footage of strikes, indicating persistent close air support/drone support for ground operations, including FPV drone use against personnel and vehicles. New RF milblogger video from Konstantinovka direction confirms significant destruction and ongoing combat, supporting claims of active ground operations. RF milblogger video shows destruction of AFU vehicles near Zatyshye (east of Huliaipole). "Two Majors" milbloggers claim a breakthrough to Aleksandro-Kalinovo on the Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad posts video of a FPV drone strike by the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the "Vostok" grouping against a Ukrainian forces pickup truck in the South Donetsk direction, claiming destruction. Операция Z claims liberation of Novoekonomichne and approach to Dmytrov (Mirnohrad), with video of strikes on AFU shelter and UAV equipment, indicating successful offensive operations. Военкор Котенок posts video of a successful FPV drone ambush on a UAF pickup truck in South Donetsk direction, highlighting RF tactical drone effectiveness. TASS reports "Center" group liberated Novoekonomichne and Zverevo, indicating claimed advances. Архангел Спецназа video shows active combat and destruction in the Konstantinovka direction. Z комитет + карта СВО posts a tactical map of Novopavlovskoe direction showing occupied territories and settlements under different control, with RF advancing in #ZelenyyHay. Colonelcassad claims liberation of Shevchenko and Pivdenny micro-districts in Chasiv Yar by 98th VDV, and envelopment of Zemlianky micro-district, indicating significant ongoing assault. Colonelcassad also claims liberation of Yablonovka on the Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad posts a photo and video claiming the liberation of Novoekonomichne, DNR, by assault units of the 51st Guards Combined Arms Army of the "Center" group of forces, and advances towards Dimitrov (Mirnograd). Военкор Котенок's video of a tank moving through a wooded area with combat signs suggests active ground offensive. Vooin DV posts a photo/video claiming 51st Guards Combined Arms Army liberated Novoekonomichne, reinforcing RF offensive capabilities. Z комитет + карта СВО posts a detailed map of Krasnoarmeyskoye direction, indicating RF control and fortification efforts, supporting claims of ongoing offensive operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Persistent Offensive Pressure (Kharkiv/Sumy): Claimed continued creation of a "security strip" and significant UAF losses. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeast direction, indicating continued aerial pressure. Оперативний ЗСУ and Colonelcassad post imagery suggesting active RF ground operations and combat in Sumy Oblast. STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF (SSO A) engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. Oleg Syniehubov reports a new RF drone attack on Kharkiv, and UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs from the north towards Kharkiv. ASTRA reports a woman died in Kursk Oblast due to a drone attack. RF milblogger "Operatsiya Z" claims Russian army broke into Kupyansk. Операция Z posts video of Russian paratroopers destroying Ukrainian positions and advancing on the Sumy front, claiming offensive action. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Intensified ISR/EW (Southern Axis): Surge in Orlan-10/30 and ZALA UAV sorties, coupled with intensified ELINT collection, indicates intelligence preparation. Reconnaissance UAVs observed on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kherson oblast borders. Colonelcassad confirms artillery and drone operators of 35th Army are active in Zaporizhzhia. RBK-Ukraina reports Estonia is sounding the alarm about Russia moving EW systems closer to NATO. UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Bilopillia (Sumy), northern Chernihiv, and border of Kharkiv/Poltava, confirming continued ISR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Adaptive Homeland Defense: Claims of downing 39 UAVs over southern Russia and seas, but impacts confirmed (Sochi oil depot). Passenger flight disruptions and railway worker casualties indicate AD impacts civilian operations. Videos from Sochi confirm the impact and aftermath of UAV attacks. RF MoD summary indicates continued AD operations. "Two Majors" FPV anti-air drone video may indicate development of new counter-air capabilities. MoD Russia video shows mine action engineers demining border areas, indicating active defense efforts. ASTRA reports that checks are now being conducted on ship hulls in the port of Ust-Luga in Leningrad Oblast following a series of incidents with tankers. ASTRA reports a criminal case opened against pilots for flying low over a beach in Leningrad Oblast, showing internal security concerns and response to airspace violations. Старше Эдды posts a photo of a network of free WiFi hotspots across the country, suggesting RF is working to maintain civilian infrastructure/connectivity in areas, possibly including border zones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Naval Power Projection: Naval exercise ("Ilyusky Shtorm") with missile launches demonstrates operational readiness and power projection. Putin states that plans to create modern naval forces will be fully implemented and Russia will ensure its security in all areas of the World Ocean, signaling long-term military development goals. Putin's visit to Severodvinsk underscores this focus on naval power. MoD Russia posts video of Putin raising the flag on the "Knyaz Pozharsky" nuclear submarine, further reinforcing naval power projection and military development focus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Internal Security: FSB demonstrates capability to identify and apprehend individuals calling for violence against military personnel and their families, suggesting robust domestic counter-extremism and surveillance. Apprehension of FSB agents by SBU and prevention of terror attack in Kyiv indicates RF continued use of covert networks for internal destabilization efforts in Ukraine. RF claims of capturing a spotter in Kherson Oblast indicate continued counter-intelligence/security operations in occupied territories. TASS reports on Belousov's meeting on digital and technological development in MoD, indicating a focus on enhancing C2 and overall operational effectiveness through technology. Basurin o glavnom posts multiple videos demonstrating FSB operations, including detentions of collaborators and those photographing military facilities. TASS reports conviction of a former Klintsy City Council deputy for fraud with SVO participant money, indicating efforts to address internal corruption affecting military support. Sever.Realii reports FSB detained nine Russians for social media comments for social media comments about the military, confirming internal suppression. ASTRA reports "Andrey Sakharov Institute" and "Peace. Progress. Human Rights" movement declared "undesirable", indicating continued crackdown on dissent. TASS reports the Moscow court arrested Aleksandr Bogashov on charges of abuse of power. TASS reports the Zamoskvoretsky court in Moscow arrested Gleb Trifonov, editor-in-chief of Telegram channel Baza, for bribery of police officers to obtain criminal reports. TASS reports the Moscow court sent Eldar Belousov, Minister of Property of Chelyabinsk Oblast, to pre-trial detention for abuse of power. TASS reports the Moscow court arrested the acting Head of Affairs of the Governor and Government of Chelyabinsk Oblast, Menzhinsky. TASS confirms "Andrey Sakharov Institute" declared "undesirable" by Ministry of Justice, reinforcing crackdown on civil society. TASS reports Chief Editor of Baza, Gleb Trifonov, refused to testify against himself during interrogation, indicating his cooperation in an ongoing internal security investigation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Logistics Support from Regional Administrations: Gleb Nikitin's post confirms significant regional government support in providing materiel, including drones and vehicles, directly to frontline units in DNR, LNR, Zaporizhzhia, Kursk, and Belgorod oblasts, demonstrating a decentralized, robust logistical and sustainment network. Alex Parker Returns reports a proposal to construct "dome homes" in Novorossiya, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, indicating RF intent for long-term control and reconstruction. Kadyrov_95's video of volunteers departing Grozny airport for the front indicates continued, organized volunteer recruitment and deployment efforts. Putin's praise for a veteran application in Arkhangelsk Oblast, integrated with Max messenger, indicates efforts to support veterans and potentially leverage technology for internal connectivity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Counter-Drone Tactics: Kotsnews' video "Kill 'Baba Yaga'" indicates RF forces are actively developing and employing tactics to neutralize Ukrainian heavy FPV/bomber drones. Два майора posts a video analyzing Ukrainian claims of an "anti-Shahed reusable FPV drone," indicating RF efforts to understand and counter UAF drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Intentions:
  • Degrade Ukrainian Combat Potential and Civilian Morale: Maintain high-tempo missile/UAV/GAB attacks to exhaust AD, disrupt logistics, and inflict casualties, targeting central and eastern Ukrainian regions. Targeting of civilian infrastructure (Odesa market, residential building, Cherkasy cemetery/civilian area, Kharkiv residential area, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia university sports hall, Konstantinovka civilian areas, Norwegian humanitarian base in Mykolaiv, Nikopol) supports this. Civilian casualties in Krasnodar will be used to justify further retaliation. RF MoD claims of striking MIC and energy facilities also reflect this intent. The forced evacuation of Dobropillia in Donetsk Oblast indicates RF intent to make areas uninhabitable through constant shelling, forcing displacement. RF's alleged use of chemical weapons, as reported by GUR, would be a clear intent to inflict maximum casualties and psychological terror. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Achieve Tactical Breakthroughs on Key Axes: Intensify ground operations on the Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk axes using mechanized units, potentially targeting the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka supply route and advancing on Krasnoarmeysk/Dmytrov. Continue offensive actions in Kharkiv/Sumy to push back Ukrainian forces. Capitalize on claimed gains in Zaporizhzhia and advance on Stepnohirsk. New RF milblogger video shows significant destruction in Konstantinovka direction, supporting the intent for tactical breakthroughs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pre-position for Future Offensives: Utilize intensified ISR and ELINT on the Southern Axis to identify targets and prepare for future offensive operations or deep strike campaigns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Protect Domestic Infrastructure: Prioritize AD and counter-UAS measures to defend against Ukrainian long-range UAV attacks, particularly critical energy infrastructure, even at cost of civilian disruption. ASTRA's report on increased checks on ship hulls in Ust-Luga port indicates RF's intent to protect critical maritime infrastructure. A woman's death in Kursk Oblast from a drone attack indicates persistent threat to RF border regions. ASTRA reports on criminal case against pilots flying low over beach, indicating RF's focus on internal airspace control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Manage Domestic Narrative: Project image of successful military operations and governmental care. Use internal issues to distract or promote sense of order. The An-24 crash investigation focuses on technical issues, possibly deflecting from systemic issues. RF will use "neuro-profiling" on youth to enforce patriotism. Arrests of citizens calling for violence against military personnel aims to suppress dissent. Efforts to support SVO participants and families aims to bolster internal support. RF attempts to frame "exposing" US interference claims as a blow to US reputation, and to link Ukraine to European energy issues. TASS reports Hungary will not supply weapons to Ukraine, leveraging this narrative. RF state media and milbloggers will attempt to frame public discontent as isolated incidents (e.g., street brawls) or promote domestic solutions. New "Two Majors" video of RF personnel conveying gratitude likely aims to boost morale and support for the SVO. TASS reports on potential gasoline export ban, which could be framed as a necessary measure for internal stability. Moscow news reports "demographic special forces" to increase patriotism. "ZONA SVO" video of an RF soldier criticizing bloggers aims to control the narrative among pro-war commentators and reinforce the 'sacrifice' of frontline personnel. Rybar's "Patriot in short supply" post aims to demoralize Ukraine and its partners by suggesting weakening air defense capabilities. Operation Z's posts about "autocracy and witch hunt" in Ukraine are intended to undermine international support and suggest internal instability within Ukraine. Colonelcassad's claim of eliminating Brazilian mercenaries aims to discredit Ukrainian foreign legion efforts and show RF effectiveness. WarGonzo's claim about HUR using a runaway businessman for drone attacks is a disinformation attempt to delegitimize Ukrainian intelligence operations. TASS reports on Russian students' success in the International Physics Olympiad, likely part of an effort to project national achievement and positive image. Старше Эдды's discussion of the "scandalous МВД-Медиа video" may indicate an an attempt to manage internal narratives or address controversies within official information channels. TASS video of Putin expressing condolences for the An-24 crash aims to project state care and leadership. Moscow news reports on a new skyscraper in Moscow City, aiming to project economic development and normalcy. AV БогомаZ's posts on a new ice palace in Bryansk further contribute to the narrative of domestic development and stability. Rybar's post "Kaluga beats migrants" aims to reinforce a strong, decisive state addressing internal issues, likely for domestic consumption. The reporting by Wildberries & Russ on the senator's proposal to ban order pickup points in residential buildings aims to influence internal economic policy discussions and project a business-friendly environment. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a document stating "Sanctions do not affect!", likely a direct counter-narrative to Western sanctions, for both domestic and international audiences. Два майора's video on veteran rehabilitation aims to project care for servicemen and highlight resilience, for domestic consumption. НгП раZVедка posts a video showing Russian military personnel in front of a MiG-29, thanking for electronic devices and promising victory, implying material support for RF aviation. WarGonzo posts a video from "Aldan" (penal colony) unit, implying their use in combat. «Зона СВО» posts a video of a serviceman of the LNR Ministry of Defense apologizing for past behavior, which is likely a public relations effort to maintain discipline and loyalty within the ranks or to control a negative narrative. TASS reports GAZ moving to a four-day work week due to a "critical fall in the car market," indicating economic challenges that will be managed domestically, potentially framed as external pressure. Два майора posts a meme suggesting the importance of learning history, a subtle push for patriotic education. TASS reports that Russia will begin creating children's playgrounds based on Russian folk toys, reported by Yampolskaya, aimed at promoting national identity and positive domestic narratives. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo with commentary about Hulk Hogan, weaving in critical remarks about Zelenskyy and Ukraine, aiming to spread disinformation about Ukrainian leadership. Novosti Moskvy posts a photo with text about the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) stating tattoos are 'identifiers for the devil', reflecting a social/religious commentary, not military intelligence. TASS reports the largest Russian metallurgical plant announced a significant collapse in profits. This information will likely be framed domestically to highlight external economic pressures. Операция Z posts a video featuring a Latvian MEP questioning the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia, aiming to undermine the Western narrative. Colonelcassad's "Satanists in AFU" content is a blatant attempt at dehumanization. Two Majors post disinformation that Zelenskyy's bill on NABU/SAP is a response to Western media criticism, indicating intent to discredit Ukrainian reforms. Basurin o glavnom posts a political cartoon attempting to link a "Ukrainian general" to involving Trump in the war, clearly a disinformation effort. Operatsiya Z posts video of paratroopers advancing on the Sumy front, likely for domestic consumption to show success. «Зона СВО» discusses blaming "Akhmat" or Alaudinov for "enemy failures," indicating an internal narrative designed to control perceptions of responsibility within the RF military. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • De-stabilize Ukraine Internally: Continued use of covert networks and agents (e.g., in Mykolaiv, Kyiv, Kherson spotters) to conduct terrorist acts or sabotage aims to create internal chaos and divert Ukrainian resources. RBK-Ukraina reports that Russia is sending kidnapped Ukrainian children to the front (citing The Times) indicates a potentially severe, new form of coercion and internal destabilization. Moscow News reports a new Telegram scam where accounts disappear, indicating ongoing cyber-related destabilization efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Economic Pressure on Ukraine: RBK-Ukraina reports the largest Russian metallurgical plant announced a significant collapse in profits. While this is an internal RF issue, it could be spun as resilience or part of a larger economic warfare narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Confirmed FAB-3000 and UMPB-5 Deployment: Operational use of FAB-3000 M-54 and UMPB-5 in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy, and implied across affected areas represents significant escalation in RF tactical aviation capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Shift to Mechanized Assaults on Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk Axis: Transition from dismounted infantry to company-sized mechanized assaults, notably involving 76th VDV Division and 98th VDV Division in Chasiv Yar, indicates move towards higher-tempo ground operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Intensified ISR/ELINT Ahead of Operations: Surge in ISR and ELINT activity on Southern Axis is a clear adaptation, indicating systematic intelligence preparation. Reconnaissance UAVs observed more widely. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Confirmed Civilian Infrastructure Targeting in Odesa, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Konstantinovka, Nikopol: Direct hits on civilian areas and infrastructure confirm RF's continued willingness to target them. The hit on Kharkiv residential complex with a KAB and the resulting increase in casualties underscore this. Updated casualty figures in Kharkiv to 39, including children, reinforce this. New casualties in Konstantinovka. Attack on a Norwegian humanitarian base in Mykolaiv confirms deliberate targeting of non-military facilities. New drone attacks reported on Kharkiv and Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicate persistent and adaptive targeting. Fighterbomber's photo of claimed FAB-500 strikes on МВД building indicates adaptive targeting of administrative infrastructure. Serhiy Lysak reports damage to residential buildings, a medical facility, and a lyceum in Nikopol. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Sustained Drone Attacks on Critical Infrastructure within RF: Multiple video confirmations of impacts and fires at Sochi oil depot despite RF AD claims suggest persistent Ukrainian capability to bypass or overwhelm RF defenses. ASTRA's report on increased checks on ship hulls in Ust-Luga port indicates RF adaptation to protect critical maritime infrastructure from drone attacks. A woman's death in Kursk Oblast from a drone attack indicates persistent threat to RF border regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Emerging RF Counter-UAV Tactics: Reported downing of UAF hexacopter by FPV-drone with Kalashnikov (if verified) indicates innovative adaptation. Kotsnews video "Kill 'Baba Yaga'" supports focus on neutralizing Ukrainian heavy drones. "Two Majors" FPV anti-air drone "Rocket" indicates continued development of counter-UAV or novel offensive capabilities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet, which if true, is a significant UAF adaptation. Два майора posts a video analyzing Ukrainian claims of an "anti-Shahed reusable FPV drone," suggesting RF efforts to understand or counter this technology. (CONFIDENCE: LOW for widespread impact of RF tactics, MEDIUM for experimental nature, MEDIUM for UAF Lancet intercept, MEDIUM for Two Majors analysis of the claim).
• RF Field Repair and Modification: "Rembat" modifying UAZ vehicles into "forward-edge transporters" indicates adaptation at tactical logistics level. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Escalation of Cross-Border Attacks in Southeast Asia (RF narrative): RF reporting of MLRS strikes by Cambodian forces on Thailand and Thai counter-airstrikes indicates intent to frame global security environment as unstable. Rybar's new post emphasizes the "escalation" on the Thailand-Cambodia border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF narrative, HIGH for reported escalation). Kotsnews video emphasizes external instigation of the Cambodia-Thailand conflict, framing it for RF benefit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Propaganda Re-framing of "Assault Groups": Rybar's use of "super-small assault groups" indicates an attempt to re-contextualize losses or adapt to changing battlefield dynamics in official reports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Targeting Ukrainian UAV Production/Storage: RF MoD specifically claimed strikes on UAV assembly/storage workshops, indicating an adaptation to directly degrade Ukrainian drone capabilities. Narodnaya militsiya DNR claims destruction of a UAF UAV control point, reinforcing this adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts video of claimed destruction of a UAF UAV control point in Poltavka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Increased Depth of Sabotage Operations in Ukraine: The SBU's prevention of a terror attack in Kyiv, following the Mykolaiv operation, indicates that RF continues to attempt to conduct deep-state sabotage and terrorist acts beyond frontline areas. SBU releases video confirming this, showing explosives and suspect. The alleged capture of a "spotter" in Kherson further indicates RF counter-intelligence adaptation in occupied territories. Basurin o glavnom videos confirming arrests of collaborators and FSB activities in Krasnodar Krai and Kherson further support this. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the activation of the Israeli early warning system in Kyiv, which is a new adaptation for Ukraine's defense, and consequently, a new challenge for RF attack planning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Use of Anti-Ship Missiles for Ground Attack: The "previous daily report" confirms the first operational use of P-800 Onyx anti-ship missiles against ground targets in Odesa, marking a significant adaptation in RF's strike capabilities and a new threat to critical coastal infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Shift to Small-Unit Probing Attacks with UAV/EW Support: The "previous daily report" indicates a marked decrease in large-scale mechanized assaults across the front, replaced by coordinated small-unit (squad/platoon) probing attacks heavily enabled by FPV drone swarms and localized EW suppression. This is a significant tactical adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Concentration of Elite Units for Specific Objectives: The confirmed consolidation of 98th VDV Division elements east of Chasiv Yar for an imminent assault highlights a focused and high-stakes tactical adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Shift in Operational Tempo: The decrease in offensive tempo along the Avdiivka axis, likely for reconstitution, indicates a tactical adaptation to manage force readiness and direct resources to other areas (e.g., Chasiv Yar). (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• Movement of EW Systems towards NATO: RBK-Ukraina reports Estonia's alarm regarding Russia moving EW systems closer to NATO, indicating a tactical/strategic adaptation by RF to enhance their electronic warfare posture along their western border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Dehumanization Propaganda: Colonelcassad's new "Satanists in AFU" propaganda is an adaptation of information warfare tactics aimed at demonizing Ukrainian forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Alleged Chemical Weapon Use: The GUR message regarding RF use of chemical weapons, if verified, represents a severe escalation and tactical adaptation to inflict mass casualties and psychological impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for GUR claim, LOW for independent verification).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Munitions Access (GABs): Confirmed use of FAB-3000 and UMPB-5 across multiple axes suggests sustained/increasing capacity to produce/convert large-caliber bombs with UMPK kits. Repeated GAB launches further confirm this. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Munitions Access (UAV/Missile): Persistent and widespread strikes confirm continued access. Reports of Chinese engines for drones smuggled into Russia suggests sanction circumvention. НгП раZVедка's video of Russian military personnel receiving electronic devices in front of a MiG-29 suggests continued resupply and technological support for aviation. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for munition stocks, HIGH for sanction circumvention).
• Homefront Stability Efforts: Payments to displaced Kursk residents and combating internal fraud/corruption suggest RF invests resources in maintaining domestic stability. Demonstration of rembat activity aims to project robust logistics. Measures to support SVO participants and families further underscore this. Addressing water supply issues in DNR also indicates efforts to stabilize occupied territories. TASS reports Klishas's push to expand benefits for "civilian wives" of fallen SVO participants indicates efforts to broaden social support. TASS reports rising AI-95 gasoline prices, indicating economic pressure. Searches in Khimki administration and charges against Bryansk Vice-Governor indicate continued internal anti-corruption efforts or power struggles, which can consume resources. New TASS report on arrests of Domodedovo City Prosecutor and Head of Capital Construction Department of Bryansk Oblast for abuse of power further confirm ongoing anti-corruption efforts. TASS reports decision being prepared to ban gasoline exports, indicating efforts to stabilize internal market. TASS reports conviction of a former Klintsy City Council deputy for fraud with SVO participant money, and the request for arrest of former Chelyabinsk Vice-Governor, highlighting ongoing corruption issues impacting military support. Gleb Nikitin's post on humanitarian aid for RF units, including new vehicles and drones, highlights the supplemental role of regional civilian support networks in sustaining RF forces. TASS reports that Mars is working to resolve the suspension of product shipments by X5 Group, indicating ongoing supply chain issues for consumer goods. AV БогомаZ's posts on construction projects indicate continued domestic investment and resource allocation. TASS reports Ministry of Health amendments on sick leave, aiming to manage public health resources. Wildberries & Russ statement on senator's proposal indicates internal economic debate affecting commercial logistics. MoD Russia video on demining Belgorod border area indicates resource allocation to domestic security and reconstruction. Alex Parker Returns reports a proposal to construct "dome homes" in Novorossiya, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, indicating a long-term reconstruction plan for claimed territories. TASS reports GAZ moving to a four-day work week due to a "critical fall in the car market," indicating economic strain that could impact military vehicle production or support in the long term. RBK-Ukraina reports the largest Russian metallurgical plant announced a significant collapse in profits. TASS reports Russia will begin creating children's playgrounds based on Russian folk toys, indicating cultural investment related to domestic sustainment narratives. ASTRA's report on checks on ship hulls in Ust-Luga port indicates resource allocation for maritime security. TASS reports arrest of Menzhinsky, acting Head of Affairs of the Governor and Government of Chelyabinsk Oblast, highlighting internal accountability efforts. TASS reports Balitsky awarded a convicted Major General Popov with a regional order, which could be an attempt to maintain morale or signal political support despite legal issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Unit-Level Sustainment: Continued appeals for drones by RF milbloggers underscore potential localized equipment shortages. Investigation into dry ration issues indicates awareness of deficiencies. Arkhangel Spetsnaza appeals for donations for "VDV Day" further indicates potential broader civilian disinterest or fatigue in supporting the military. Butusov Plus reports on Russian military widow being put on wanted list after criticizing a colonel for sending drone operators to their death, indicating potential systemic issues in military command accountability affecting morale. Alex Parker Returns posts soliciting donations for SVO further indicate reliance on non-state funding for military needs. New "Two Majors" video showing RF personnel expressing gratitude for support reinforces reliance on external aid. WarGonzo video of soldier losing a foot highlights the brutal combat conditions and potential strain on medical logistics/rehabilitation. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki report on court denying compensation to a family of a deceased soldier sent to the front injured, highlighting systemic issues in care and support. Two Majors' video showcasing a tactical medical kit ("HEALER" IFAK) may indicate a focus on improving individual combat medical readiness or promotion of specific gear, which can be a response to identified sustainment gaps. Два майора posts a video depicting individuals with prosthetic limbs, promoting resilience and possibly indicating challenges with military medical rehabilitation. WarGonzo posts a video from "Aldan" (penal colony) unit, indicating continued reliance on non-traditional military personnel, which can impact sustainment and training. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki reports military police beating an elderly serviceman, implying disciplinary or morale issues that could affect unit cohesion and readiness. Kadyrov_95's video of volunteers departing Grozny airport for the front suggests a continued reliance on volunteer enlistment to augment forces. Two Majors post video of Special Forces Marine Detachment, depicting casual scene with energy drink and diver, low military significance, but suggests routine activities and potentially casual approach to security. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Financial Stability: Alfa-Bank app failure may indicate localized financial disruptions but does not yet point to systemic issues affecting military finance. TASS reports that investigators are seeking the arrest of three Interior Ministry employees accused of receiving bribes from Baza Telegram channel journalists, which could indirectly affect financial stability related to state funds. TASS reports the arrest of Gleb Trifonov, editor-in-chief of Baza, for bribery of police officers to obtain criminal reports, directly linking to corruption within the law enforcement and information spheres. The General Prosecutor's Office reports on "PonaD 200 million UAH of losses!", related to a previous case of UAH 29 million restitution, indicating continued efforts to combat large-scale economic crime. (CONFIDENCE: LOW).
• Economic Pressures: X5 (retailer) stopping Mars product shipments suggests domestic economic pressures or supply chain disruptions. Moscow news reports tens of thousands of teachers could be without work due to "demographic pit of the 90s," indicating long-term demographic challenges that may impact future manpower pools. Strike at Turkish NPP built by Rosatom may indicate issues with overseas contracts. TASS confirms X5 Group expects Mars product remnants to end by August-September and be replaced by analogues. TASS reports a potential gasoline export ban from August 1st, indicating domestic fuel supply concerns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBK-Ukraina reports the largest Russian metallurgical plant announced a significant collapse in profits. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• Responsive Air Operations: Continued and precise nature of UAV/missile targeting and successful FAB-3000/UMPB-5 deployment indicate centralized and responsive C2 for RF aerial operations. Claims of RF drones destroying UAF UAV control points suggest active counter-C2 efforts. Colonelcassad's animated map of recent strikes highlights a centralized command for these widespread operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ground Operations C2 (Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk): Shift to coordinated company-sized mechanized assaults demonstrates improved tactical C2. Colonelcassad's claims of tactical advances and envelopment in Chasiv Yar, if confirmed, indicate effective C2 for complex urban assaults. Colonelcassad's claim of Novoekonomichne liberation by 51st Guards Combined Arms Army suggests coordinated ground C2. WarGonzo posts video of RF Minister of Defense Belousov checking implementation of automated control systems in combat zone, indicating high-level focus on C2 modernization. Colonelcassad posts a video of representatives of military groups discussing the special military operation as of July 24, 2025, which provides an overview of RF operational reporting and C2 structure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• ISR/ELINT Coordination: Surge in ISR and ELINT activity suggests effective C2 in preparing for future operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Domestic Security C2: Repulsion of drone attacks on Krasnodar Krai demonstrates effective local C2 and AD coordination. Response to internal issues highlights functional, albeit challenged, civilian C2. SBU's operation in Mykolaiv and Kyiv highlights RF's continued use of covert networks and Ukraine's effective counter-intelligence. FSB's arrests of domestic dissidents demonstrate effective internal security C2. The alleged capture of a "spotter" in Kherson further indicates functional RF counter-intelligence in occupied territories. TASS reports on Belousov's meeting on digital and technological development in MoD, indicating a focus on enhancing C2 and overall operational effectiveness through technology. The arrest of Bryansk Vice-Governor for abuse of power in defensive line construction indicates some internal accountability or power struggles at the strategic-administrative level. New TASS video of Belousov's meeting on digital and technological development of RF MoD indicates a focus on enhancing strategic C2 and overall effectiveness through technology integration. TASS reports Simonenko does not admit guilt, indicating potential for internal disputes despite the arrest. "ZONA SVO" video features an RF soldier criticizing bloggers, which could imply internal military C2 trying to control information flow within the milblogger community. ASTRA's report on checks on ship hulls in Ust-Luga port indicates a coordinated response to security incidents affecting critical infrastructure. TASS reports the Moscow court arrested the Baza editor-in-chief and the Minister of Property for Chelyabinsk Oblast, indicating continued centralized control over internal security and anti-corruption efforts. TASS reports arrest of Menzhinsky, acting Head of Affairs of the Governor and Government of Chelyabinsk Oblast, also demonstrating centralized anti-corruption efforts. Moscow News reports on a new Telegram scam for account hacking, indicating ongoing cyber security threats and the need for C2 to address them. TASS reports Chief Editor of Baza, Gleb Trifonov, refused to testify against himself during interrogation, suggesting a coordinated investigative effort by internal security services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Strategic C2: TASS reports RF delegation returning from Istanbul talks, indicating continued, albeit likely unproductive, strategic engagement. Putin attending Supreme Court Chairman's farewell demonstrates top-level C2 maintaining a public presence. TASS reports Zakharova's statements regarding Russia's participation in the Helsinki Final Act conference and the release of Russian citizens by Azerbaijan, indicating a maintained diplomatic C2 despite lower-level engagement. The arrest of Bryansk Vice-Governor for abuse of power in defensive line construction indicates some internal accountability or power struggles at the strategic-administrative level. New TASS video of Belousov's meeting on digital and technological development of RF MoD indicates a focus on enhancing strategic C2 and overall effectiveness through technology integration. TASS reports Simonenko does not admit guilt, indicating potential for internal disputes despite the arrest. "ZONA SVO" video features an RF soldier criticizing bloggers, which could imply internal military C2 trying to control information flow within the milblogger community. The Lithuanian General's statement about NATO infrastructure readiness indicates RF's strategic C2 perceives ongoing NATO build-up near its borders. Putin's statement about fully implementing plans for modern naval forces and ensuring security in all areas of the World Ocean indicates strategic C2 focus on long-term force projection and defense. Putin's visit to Severodvinsk indicates continued strategic focus on naval development and military-industrial complex. Старше Эдды's discussion of the МВД-Медиа video may imply internal C2 efforts to manage information and address controversies. TASS video of Putin at the nuclear submarine ceremony reinforces high-level C2 focus on strategic naval assets. «Зона СВО» posts a video of an LNR Ministry of Defense serviceman apologizing, suggesting an attempt by RF C2 to address or control internal disciplinary issues publicly. TASS reports GAZ moving to a four-day work week, indicating centralized economic decision-making in response to market conditions. Novosti Moskvy reporting on metro disruptions indicates functional civilian C2 managing urban infrastructure. The previous daily report notes a confirmed concentration of 98th VDV Division elements east of Chasiv Yar, indicating strategic C2 for a major offensive. Operation Z posts a video featuring a Latvian MEP questioning the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia, which reflects a strategic information operation. MoD Russia video of Putin discussing submarine development strategy reinforces high-level strategic C2 on long-term military planning. «Зона СВО» posts a photo discussing blaming "Akhmat" or Alaudinov for "enemy failures," suggesting internal RF narrative management related to C2 and accountability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Air Defense (AD) Posture: Remains highly vigilant and engaged. Successful interception of 2 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk and 90 of 103 drones and 1 cruise missile overnight. Differentiated air raid alerts in Kyiv Oblast indicates adaptive measures. However, scale of damage in Odesa, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Konstantinovka, and FAB-3000/UMPB-5 impact, indicates AD saturation or gaps. New ballistic missile threat detected (MiG-31K launch) which has now cleared. New enemy UAVs reported in Sumy, northern Kharkiv, and southwest of Dnipro, with assets engaged. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports weekly destruction of over 50 Russian reconnaissance drones, indicating active and effective local AD efforts. New GAB launches on Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Sumy suggest persistent aerial threats. New missile threat detected for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Threat from enemy UAV on northeastern Poltava Oblast detected, heading southeast. The Israeli early warning system for air threats became operational in Kyiv last night, indicating an enhancement in AD posture and readiness. New ballistic missile threat from northeast, requiring immediate AD readiness. This threat has now been cleared. New high-speed target reported in Sumy Oblast (Khotin) and UAV near Shostka (Sumy Oblast), requiring immediate AD response. Enemy UAVs approaching Kharkiv from the north, requiring AD engagement. The AFU Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. The "previous daily report" confirms the use of P-800 Onyx missiles against ground targets in Odesa, indicating a new challenge for AD. RBK-Ukraina reports a drone fell in Poltava Oblast due to AD work. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet, which if true, is a significant UAF counter-drone capability. UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Bilopillia (Sumy), northern Chernihiv, and border of Kharkiv/Poltava, with assets engaged. STERNENKO reports Shahed launches from 4 directions. UAF Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast from the north, currently flying south, and near Bilopillia, heading south. New groups of enemy strike UAVs reported on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, course west/southwest. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that German HENSOLDT will produce TRML-4D and SPEXER 2000 radars for Ukraine, a significant boost to AD and ISR capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ground Forces Posture (Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk): Facing increasingly coordinated mechanized assaults. High volume of requests for drones from Pokrovsk indicates intense engagement. UAF General Staff reports 172 combat engagements. UAF drone units remain effective, with SSO 3rd Regiment "Hornnets" neutralizing occupiers and OTU "Kharkiv" hitting enemy targets. Marine brigades maintain lines and repel attacks. The 43rd OMBR and 32nd Steel Brigade are actively seeking drone donations, indicating critical need for UAVs at the front. Butusov Plus releases graphic video of a Russian soldier's apparent suicide by grenade in Serebryansky forest during drone pursuit, demonstrating UAF drone effectiveness and enemy desperation in tactical engagements. Colonelcassad posts video of "Rubikon" (RF) striking AFU infantry near Hrodovka. STERNENKO reports that Sky Hunters of the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade are stopping new Russian assaults on the Kupyansk direction, supported by video footage of drone strikes. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 16:00 24.07.2025 regarding the Russian invasion. STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF (SSO A) engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. Facing significant, claimed RF advances in Chasiv Yar by 98th VDV, including claimed liberation of Shevchenko and Pivdenny micro-districts and envelopment of Zemlianky micro-district, indicating extremely high pressure and need for rapid reinforcement/counter-action. Butusov Plus posts videos from SBU's "A" Special Operations Center, claiming over 2100 Russian soldiers eliminated in less than a month through industrial-scale drone operations, demonstrating significant UAF ground force effectiveness. DeepState and Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukraїni (Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine) post videos of drone strikes by 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade "Sons of Khors" destroying RF personnel and equipment in the area of Mali Shcherbaky, confirming continued successful tactical engagements. The "previous daily report" notes a significant reduction in offensive actions on the Avdiivka axis, which could be a strategic success for UAF if it indicates a successful defense that forced the enemy to reconstitute. The "previous daily report" also notes continued localized assaults near Synkivka and Terny (Kharkiv/Kupiansk axis) as fixing operations, indicating a sustained defensive posture in these areas. ОТУ "Харків" posts new drone footage showing "Molniya" strike UAVs destroying Russian observation posts and a UAZ 'Bukhanka' in Kharkiv Oblast, highlighting continued successful defense. TASS reports RF "siloviki" claim UAF intends to increase grouping near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, implying a perceived need for UAF reinforcement. Operatyvny ZSU posts a video showing a UAF soldier surrounded by drones asking for donations for FPV transceivers, confirming continued reliance on drone warfare and citizen support. STERNENKO posts a video demonstrating a drone operation in which a "bad signal won't stop them" and the pilot "landed like a god," indicating high skill and determination in drone operations in contested signal environments, likely in a combat zone. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Civilian Response: Civilian populations respond to alerts. Emergency services actively engaged. General Prosecutor's Office initiated investigations, including documentation of Kharkiv damage. Patrol police in Cherkasy actively evacuating citizens, demonstrating continued civilian protection efforts. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration video shows ongoing civilian housing repair efforts after shelling, demonstrating resilience and reconstruction. RBK-Ukraina reports forced evacuation expanding in Donetsk Oblast, indicating adaptation to sustained RF pressure on civilian populations. Oleksandr Vilkul's posts on reconstruction and road repairs indicate continued efforts to restore civilian life. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports forced evacuation of families with children from Dobropillia and 9 other settlements near Pokrovsk, indicating adaptive measures to protect civilians. Serhiy Lysak reports damage to residential buildings, a medical facility, and a lyceum in Nikopol from shelling, confirming ongoing impact on civilian infrastructure. Oleksandr Vilkul reports that Kryvyi Rih has reduced road repairs due to funds redirected to support the Defense Forces (nearly 3 billion UAH since the start of the war). RBK-Ukraina posts photos from Odesa showing extensive debris and damage, highlighting the civilian impact and ongoing recovery efforts. ASTRA provides multiple photos of destruction and rescue efforts in Odesa, confirming civilian impact. RBK-Ukraina reports a third day of protests in Kyiv against the law on NABU, indicating civil society engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Training & Readiness: DSHV training center activity indicates continued training. Return of paratroopers from captivity boosts morale. Adapted civilian vehicles for military missions demonstrates unit-level initiative. Oleg Syniehubov's photos of returned POWs captioned "Our people are home again" confirm this boost in morale and successful exchanges. "Filolog v zasade" (RF milblogger) discusses the need to review current combat training programs and military literature, indicating internal RF concerns about training effectiveness, which indirectly affects UAF defensive posture analysis. DSHV releases a new motivational video for recruitment, showcasing the commitment of young soldiers. РБК-Україна reports on military registration for 17-year-olds, indicating continued efforts to maintain and expand manpower pools. The "previous daily report" highlights the increased integration of FPV drone swarms with EW systems by the enemy, indicating a need for rapid adaptation in UAF training and readiness to counter this new threat. UAF General Staff publishes photos of a young female athlete with three gold medals and three European records, likely from a sporting event, to boost national morale and demonstrate national achievement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Resource Management: Units actively fundraising indicates ongoing resource challenges. Scaling up domestic explosives production is a positive step to mitigate ammunition constraints. General Staff announcing partnership with "Ballistics" (armor/equipment manufacturer) for "Army+" program indicates efforts to boost domestic production. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast receiving three new ambulances from philanthropists demonstrates the continued importance of charitable support for critical civilian infrastructure. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 confirms receiving two donations, highlighting the continued importance of private funding for military needs. KMVA reports a meeting with International Monetary Fund representatives, indicating ongoing efforts to secure financial resources for national stability and defense. STERNENKO highlights a "significant deficit" in "Rusoriz" (drone) production/availability, indicating ongoing resource constraints for a key UAF capability. Oleksandr Vilkul's report on redirecting road repair funds to defense highlights the constraints on civilian infrastructure due to military needs. The General Prosecutor's Office reporting on over 200 million UAH of losses (from a previous case of 29 million UAH restitution) reinforces efforts to recover funds, potentially for national defense. Operatyvny ZSU posts a video featuring a UAF soldier surrounded by drones asking for donations for FPV transceivers, directly indicating a critical resource requirement at the unit level. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a €340 million contract for HENSOLDT radars, indicating significant international military aid for key capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Counter-Intelligence Posture: SBU's successful operation in Mykolaiv and Kyiv demonstrates robust counter-intelligence capabilities against FSB agents and terrorist plots. General Prosecutor's office is addressing corruption cases within its ranks (two prosecutors suspected), demonstrating commitment to integrity. The General Prosecutor's Office reports the detention of a deserting serviceman involved in a robbery, demonstrating internal security efforts. The General Prosecutor's Office is also investigating a scheme involving demands for bribes for military medical commissions, showing continued efforts to combat corruption. Zelenskiy / Official, STERNENKO, RBK-Ukraina, and Operatyvny ZSU all report President Zelenskyy's approval of a draft law strengthening law enforcement, anti-corruption bodies, and protecting them from Russian influence, which signals a strong commitment to internal security and combating corruption. The General Prosecutor's Office reports on stopping the work of a transnational hacker forum with French colleagues and Europol, highlighting cyber security successes. Oleg Syniehubov posts a video discussing the operational situation in Kharkiv Oblast for a telethon, providing transparent updates. General Prosecutor's Office publicizes the detention of an RF agent who committed arson in Bukovyna (15-year sentence), further demonstrating effective counter-intelligence. Шеф Hayabusa posts a photo discussing why protests are forbidden during wartime, indicating active measures to maintain public order and counter destabilization attempts. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy proposed Germany participate in the expertise of the NABU draft law, demonstrating proactive engagement on anti-corruption. Operatyvny ZSU reports NABU employees with state secret access will undergo SBU polygraph tests, reinforcing counter-intelligence efforts. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy submitted a draft law to the Rada on NABU and SAP independence. STERNENKO also confirms Zelenskyy's submission of the new NABU/SAP draft law to the Rada, further indicating proactive measures against corruption and Russian influence. NABU's support for the new draft law reinforces its commitment to strengthening anti-corruption efforts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms Zelenskyy's submission of the urgent draft law on NABU/SAP. STERNENKO clarifies previous legal status of investigative jurisdiction changes. RBK-Ukraina notes NABU reaction to Zelenskyy's draft law. RBK-Ukraina reports NABU responded to "new risks" in Zelenskyy's new draft law. Oleg Syniehubov posts photos confirming NABU and SAP supported draft law №13533. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:
  • AD Engagements: Two UAVs intercepted over Dnipropetrovsk. 90 of 103 RF UAVs downed overnight, plus one cruise missile. RF MoD claims 6 GABs and 217 UAVs shot down (not confirmed by UAF). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports weekly destruction of over 50 Russian reconnaissance drones. The Israeli early warning system for air threats became operational in Kyiv last night, signifying a successful enhancement of early warning capabilities. An enemy drone fell in Poltava Oblast due to AD work. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet, which if true, is a significant tactical success against a difficult target. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that German HENSOLDT will produce TRML-4D and SPEXER 2000 radars for Ukraine for €340 million, indicating a successful acquisition of advanced AD and ISR capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Prisoner Exchange: Return of Ukrainian military personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Situational Control: Kryvyi Rih remains controlled. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Repulsion of Mechanized Assaults: UAF on Pokrovsk axis successfully repelled at least two company-sized mechanized assaults. UAF General Staff reports numerous repelled assaults on various axes. STERNENKO reports Sky Hunters of the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade stopping new Russian assaults on Kupyansk direction. STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF (SSO A) engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. Butusov Plus posts videos from SBU's "A" Special Operations Center, claiming over 2100 Russian soldiers eliminated in less than a month through industrial-scale drone operations, highlighting significant UAF tactical success. DeepState and Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukraїni (Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine) post videos of drone strikes by 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade "Sons of Khors" destroying RF personnel and equipment in the area of Mali Shcherbaky, confirming successful tactical engagements. The "previous daily report" notes a significant reduction in offensive actions on the Avdiivka axis, which could be a strategic success for UAF if it indicates a successful defense that forced the enemy to reconstitute. ОТУ "Харків" posts new drone footage showing "Molniya" strike UAVs destroying Russian observation posts and a UAZ 'Bukhanka' in Kharkiv Oblast, highlighting continued successful defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Effective Counter-Offensive Operations (Sochi): Continued Ukrainian long-range UAV attacks on critical RF infrastructure demonstrate offensive reach and capability to inflict economic/psychological damage, leading to civilian disruptions/casualties in RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Drone Strikes against RF targets: RBK-Ukraine reports successful drone strikes destroying Msta-B howitzer and communication equipment. STERNENKO reports successful drone strikes against RF personnel, including a fleeing RF soldier on Kurakhove direction. OTU "Kharkiv" reports success against enemy vehicles, BMP, positions, and shelters. Butusov Plus provides graphic video of a Russian soldier's apparent suicide by grenade in Serebryansky forest during drone pursuit, demonstrating UAF drone effectiveness and enemy desperation in tactical engagements. Vooin DV posts video claiming destruction of AFU vehicle in Zatyshye (east of Huliaipole) from reconnaissance drone. Butusov Plus posts video of a Ukrainian drone successfully detonating an unexploded Russian bomb, killing an RF soldier, showcasing innovative battlefield tactics. STERNENKO posts a video demonstrating a drone operation in which a "bad signal won't stop them" and the pilot "landed like a god," indicating high skill and determination in drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • SBU Counter-Terrorism Operation: Successful prevention of dual terrorist act in Mykolaiv and a significant terror act in central Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Domestic Explosives Production: Scaling up production is a critical strategic success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Defense Industry Partnership: New partnership with "Ballistics" for "Army+" program indicates strengthening domestic defense industry. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Fiscal Integrity: General Prosecutor's Office reports restitution of 29 million UAH to the state budget from a confectionery enterprise and investigation of two prosecutors. New report on over 200 million UAH of losses also confirms ongoing efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Addressing Disinformation: Ukrainian public and RBK-Ukraina countered Congresswoman Greene's fake news about Kyiv protests. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Strengthening Law Enforcement/Anti-Corruption: President Zelenskyy's approval of a draft law in this area indicates proactive institutional strengthening. EU Commission "welcomed" the new bill regarding NABU/SAP activities, a diplomatic success. STERNENKO, RBK-Ukraina, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirm Zelenskyy's submission of the new NABU/SAP draft law to the Rada, which NABU has supported. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cyber Security: Ukrainian law enforcement, with French colleagues and Europol, stopped a transnational hacker forum. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Civilian Infrastructure Repair: Oleksandr Vilkul's posts on road construction in Kryvyi Rih indicate successful civilian infrastructure maintenance despite ongoing conflict. His report on redirecting road repair funds to defense indicates strategic resource allocation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • International Financial Engagement: Kyiv City Military Administration meeting with IMF representatives indicates continued international financial support and efforts to maintain economic stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Diplomatic Engagement: Zelenskiy / Official reports a good conversation with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, indicating continued international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Sports Achievement for Morale: UAF General Staff highlighting a young female athlete's three gold medals and three European records serves to boost national morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setbacks:
  • Civilian Casualties and Infrastructure Damage: Significant civilian casualties (12 in Cherkasy, 3+ in Odesa, unspecified in Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, 41 in Kharkiv including 6 children, 2 killed and 14 injured in Konstantinovka) and extensive damage highlight persistent vulnerability to RF strikes. Drone attack on Norwegian humanitarian base in Mykolaiv is a significant setback for civilian aid efforts. Serhiy Lysak reports damage to residential buildings, a medical facility, and a lyceum in Nikopol, confirming continued civilian impacts. One male fatality confirmed in Odesa. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • FAB-3000/UMPB-5 Impact: Deployment and impact of FAB-3000 M-54 and UMPB-5 near Lyptsi and Kharkiv center demonstrates new, highly destructive threat to UAF strongpoints and urban areas. Confirmed GAB use on Donetsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson indicates widespread threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Persistent UAV Threat: Confirmed mass drone attack on Odesa (over 30 drones), Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and Sumy (103 drones last night) indicates enduring and widespread threat. New UAVs reported in Sumy, northern Kharkiv, and Dnipro. Enemy UAV detected in northeastern Poltava Oblast. New high-speed target reported in Sumy Oblast (Khotin) and UAV near Shostka (Sumy Oblast), indicating continued air threats. Enemy UAVs approaching Kharkiv from the north. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Frontline Pressure (Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk): RF's shift to larger mechanized assaults indicates increased pressure on UAF defensive lines. Colonelcassad's claims of RF liberation of Shevchenko and Pivdenny micro-districts and envelopment of Zemlianky micro-districts in Chasiv Yar, if confirmed, represent a significant tactical setback and a potential breakthrough. Colonelcassad's claim of Yablonovka liberation on Konstantinovka direction, if confirmed, would be a new setback. Colonelcassad's claim of Novoekonomichne liberation by RF forces, if confirmed by UAF, would be a tactical setback. The "previous daily report" indicates an imminent, major ground assault on Chasiv Yar, which if successful, would be a significant tactical setback. Butusov Plus video showing Mirnohrad in ruins highlights the destructive impact of RF advances. Operation Z claims Russian army broke into Kupyansk, if confirmed, this would be a new tactical setback. Vooin DV claims 51st Guards Combined Arms Army liberated Novoekonomichne. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Claimed RF River Crossing (Kharkiv): The RF claim of crossing the Verkhnya Dvurechnaya river at Melovoe, if confirmed, represents a minor tactical setback. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Potential Ambulance Strike (Zaporizhzhia): Unconfirmed report of UAF drone striking an ambulance is a significant negative if verified. (CONFIDENCE: LOW for UAF action).
  • Vulnerability of Civilian Shipping: Explosion on a Ukrainian dredge ship "Delta-Lotsman" in Bystre estuary, resulting in 3 deaths and injuries, highlights vulnerability of civilian maritime infrastructure/personal in proximity to conflict zones, whether from mines or direct fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Economic Impact of Heat: Cargo transport restrictions in Kyiv due to heat may cause minor logistical delays/economic impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Nationwide Air Alarm: MiG-31K launch triggered a nationwide air alarm, indicating continued missile threat capability from RF. New ballistic missile threat from northeast adds to persistent air threat. This threat has now been cleared. The "previous daily report" confirms the use of P-800 Onyx missiles against ground targets in Odesa, marking a new and challenging threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • RF Claimed Territorial Gains: TASS reports "Center" group liberated Novoekonomichne and Zverevo in Krasnoarmeysk direction. If confirmed by UAF, these are tactical setbacks. Z комитет + карта СВО posts claimed advances in #ZelenyyHay on the Novopavlovskoe direction. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for TASS, HIGH for Z committee).
  • Internal Diplomatic Friction: RBK-Ukraina reports Macron and Costa dissuaded Zelenskyy from signing the law on NABU and SAP, indicating potential for friction with Western partners over judicial reforms. STERNENKO highlights a "significant deficit" in "Rusoriz" (drone) production/availability, implying a resource setback for a key UAF capability. Operation Z claims Zelenskyy "capitulated" on anti-corruption laws, which is an RF narrative. RBK-Ukraina reports NABU responded to "new risks" in Zelenskyy's new draft law, indicating continued internal debate. RBK-Ukraina reports a third day of protests in Kyiv against the law on NABU, indicating public opposition or concern regarding the reforms, which could be exploited by RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • New Form of RF Coercion/Mobilization: RBK-Ukraina reports that Russia is sending kidnapped Ukrainian children to the front (citing The Times), which is a severe violation of international law and a profound human rights setback. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Alleged Chemical Weapon Use: The GUR message regarding RF use of chemical weapons, if verified, represents a severe setback due to the potential for mass casualties and the violation of international law. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for GUR claim, LOW for independent verification).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Critical Needs (Air Defense): Continued and expedited supply of air defense systems and interceptor missiles remains paramount, particularly for urban areas and frontline strongpoints. Germany potentially transferring two Patriot systems is positive. US approval for repair equipment for Bradley and HAWK systems will aid sustainment. The confirmation of P-800 Onyx missile use against ground targets in Odesa highlights an urgent need for AD systems capable of intercepting high-speed, low-altitude anti-ship missiles. New €340 million contract for HENSOLDT radars is a critical boost for AD and ISR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Counter-GAB Defenses: Urgent requirement for effective countermeasures against large guided bombs (FAB-1500/3000, UMPB-5), including enhanced EW or deeper strike capabilities against launch platforms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Anti-Armor Assets (Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk Priority): Allocation of additional ATGM systems, FPV drones, and rapid deployment of scatterable mines is critical to counter escalating mechanized threat. Ongoing calls for drone donations (43rd OMBR, 32nd Steel Brigade, Шеф Hayabusa, STERNENKO's "Rusoriz" deficit, Operatyvny ZSU FPV transceiver request) underscore the immediate and continuous need for UAVs. The "previous daily report" recommends immediately reinforcing Chasiv Yar with ATGM teams and combat engineering assets due to the expected assault. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Civilian Protection: Increased frequency and severity of civilian infrastructure damage necessitate enhanced support for local emergency services. Expansion of forced evacuation in Donetsk Oblast highlights this need. Oleksandr Vilkul's report on redirecting road repair funds to defense highlights the constraints on civilian infrastructure due to military needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Counter-Offensive Capability: Sustained Western military aid required. Trump's reported agreement for EU to pay for US-produced weaponry is significant. Domestic scaling of explosives production is positive. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Cybersecurity/IM Infrastructure: The incident with Alfa-Bank's app and discussions on WhatsApp/Telegram blocking in Russia highlight the ongoing cyber and information domain conflict, which may require Ukraine to ensure its own secure communication channels. "Ukrzaliznytsia" strengthening document control for train boarding indicates a civilian security measure with potential impact on force mobility if not managed carefully. Moscow News reports a new Telegram scam for account hacking, indicating an ongoing cyber threat to information infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Propaganda (Domestic): TASS promotes RF military successes (including claimed energy strikes on MIC and UAV facilities). Repatriation of RF soldiers used to bolster morale. Internal reporting on fraud and social issues aims to project image of functioning state. Rybar and WarGonzo actively promote RF territorial gains, including claims of "super-small assault groups" which could be a narrative adaptation. Milblogger Kotenok echoes concerns about future negotiations. RF reports casualties in Krasnodar from UAF drone attacks to fuel victim narrative. Alex Parker Returns' anti-immigrant/anti-emigrant rhetoric serves to deflect. An-24 crash investigation focuses on technical issues, deflecting from maintenance failures. RF will use "neuro-profiling" on youth to enforce patriotism. FSB arrests of "extremists" used to project control. Efforts to support SVO participants and families, and address water supply issues in DNR, aim to improve public perception. TASS reports on Matviyenko's support for mandatory history exam and need for sovereign AI, promoting nationalistic narratives. Kremlin bots spread warnings about WhatsApp blocking to promote domestic alternatives. "Two Majors" milbloggers post content to humanize soldiers and show routine activities. TASS reports Klishas calls to expand benefits for "civilian wives" of fallen SVO participants to garner more support. TASS reports Matviyenko's claims about US election interference debunking and its impact on US reputation. Sever.Realii's report on increased treason cases and "fantastic repression" may inadvertently highlight internal dissent. TASS reports rising gasoline prices, which may contribute to public discontent. WarGonzo claims "Europeans are not eager to pay for American supplies to Ukraine" to sow discord. Alex Parker Returns posts images and videos implying southern Russia is beautiful, possibly to counter negative narratives about drone attacks. New "Two Majors" video of RF personnel conveying gratitude likely aims to boost morale and support for the SVO. New TASS video of Belousov's meeting aims to project competence and technological advancement within MoD. Fighterbomber's video with a masked figure and "BOYCOTT. DON'T BE A PIG." suggests aggressive, dehumanizing propaganda linked to boycotts. RF milbloggers discuss the need to review combat training programs and military literature, indicating internal critical assessment. "ZONA SVO" video of an RF soldier criticizing bloggers aims to control the narrative among pro-war commentators and reinforce a sense of "truth" coming from direct combatants. Gleb Nikitin's posts highlighting large humanitarian aid shipments to RF units aim to boost morale and emphasize public support for the SVO. Two Majors' post criticizing "Soviet propaganda" aims to frame Ukrainian information efforts as outdated and ineffective. Igor Artamonov's posts about young industrialists contributing to the economy and country serve to bolster the narrative of a strong, self-sufficient RF. TASS reports on Mars' efforts to resolve product shipment issues with X5 Group, likely to reassure consumers about supply stability. TASS reports on Russian students winning medals in the International Physics Olympiad, used to project national scientific achievement. Старше Эдды's discussion of the "scandalous МВД-Медиа video" indicates an attempt to control or re-frame internal controversies. TASS video of Putin expressing condolences for the An-24 crash aims to project leadership and empathy. Moscow news reports on a new skyscraper in Moscow City, aiming to project economic development and normalcy. AV БогомаZ's posts on a new ice palace in Bryansk further contribute to the narrative of domestic development and stability. Rybar's post "Kaluga beats migrants" aims to reinforce a strong, decisive state addressing internal issues, likely for domestic consumption. The reporting by Wildberries & Russ on the senator's proposal to ban order pickup points in residential buildings aims to influence internal economic policy discussions and project a business-friendly environment. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a document stating "Sanctions do not affect!", likely a direct counter-narrative to Western sanctions, for both domestic and international audiences. Два майора's video on veteran rehabilitation aims to project care for servicemen and highlight resilience, for domestic consumption. НгП раZVедка posts a video showing Russian military personnel in front of a MiG-29, thanking for electronic devices and promising victory, implying material support for RF aviation. WarGonzo posts a video from "Aldan" (penal colony) unit, implying their use in combat, likely an internal narrative portraying the sacrifice and commitment of such units. «Зона СВО» posts a video of a serviceman of the LNR Ministry of Defense apologizing for past behavior, which is a public disciplinary action aimed at maintaining control of internal narratives. TASS reports GAZ moving to a four-day work week due to a "critical fall in the car market," indicating economic challenges that will be managed domestically, potentially framed as external pressure. Два майора posts a meme suggesting the importance of learning history, a subtle push for patriotic education. TASS reports that Russia will begin creating children's playgrounds based on Russian folk toys, reported by Yampolskaya, aimed at promoting national identity and positive domestic narratives. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo with commentary about Hulk Hogan, weaving in critical remarks about Zelenskyy and Ukraine, aiming to spread disinformation about Ukrainian leadership. Novosti Moskvy posts a photo with text about the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) stating tattoos are 'identifiers for the devil', a social/religious commentary that contributes to internal conservative narratives. TASS reports the largest Russian metallurgical plant announced a significant collapse in profits. This information will likely be framed domestically to highlight external economic pressures. Операция Z posts a video featuring a Latvian MEP questioning the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia, aiming to undermine the Western narrative. Colonelcassad's "Satanists in AFU" content is a blatant attempt at dehumanization. Two Majors post disinformation that Zelenskyy's bill on NABU/SAP is a response to Western media criticism, aiming to discredit Ukrainian reforms. Alex Parker Returns posts video about an Afghan migrant incident in Omsk, framed to highlight societal tensions and promote SVO veteran image as a solution. ASTRA reports a criminal case against pilots for flying low over a beach, presented as law enforcement addressing public safety concerns. Basurin o glavnom posts a political cartoon attempting to link a "Ukrainian general" to involving Trump in the war, intended to create negative perceptions of Ukrainian leadership. Operatsiya Z posts video of paratroopers advancing on the Sumy front, likely for domestic consumption to show success. «Зона СВО» discusses blaming "Akhmat" or Alaudinov for "enemy failures," indicating an internal narrative designed to control perceptions of responsibility within the RF military. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Propaganda (External/Hybrid): Milbloggers disseminate unverified battlefield claims. TASS disseminates negative reports about Ukrainian leadership. Claim of UAF "firefight" in Kremennaya likely an information operation. "Voenkor Kotenok" sows distrust. "Operation Z" reports "fierce clashes" on Cambodia-Thailand border to distract from Ukraine. Peskov frames humanitarian discussions as positive. Alex Parker Returns' interpretation of a physiognomist analyzing Russian negotiator's motivations points to the ongoing psychological warfare component of such talks. TASS reports RF delegation returned from Istanbul. TASS reports Zakharova's statement regarding Russia's potential participation in the 50th anniversary of the Helsinki Final Act conference, suggesting limited but continued engagement in international forums. TASS cites Russian ambassador to Germany claiming Germany is preparing for full-scale conflict with Russia. TASS cites Matviyenko speculating on a Putin-Trump meeting. "Operation Z" amplifies criticisms of Zelenskyy by US Senator Graham and uses The Times report on NABU to undermine Zelenskyy's image. TASS reports Hungarian FM Szijjarto's accusations that Kyiv is undermining Central European energy security and that Hungary will not supply weapons to Ukraine. Alex Parker Returns posts hinting at antisemitism may be part of an internal Russian information campaign or a reflection of societal attitudes. "Operation Z" amplifies an FT article criticizing Yermak, seeking to undermine Ukrainian leadership. "Operation Z" cites a Swiss editor claiming Western media "over-idealizes Ukraine" to undermine international support. "Operation Z" reports ex-commander-in-chief of AFU, Zaluzhny, states war may last until 2034, which is being used to demoralize and show futility of resistance. Alex Parker Returns posts social media imagery attempting to discredit a Ukrainian journalist (Yulia Latynina), framing her as part of an "autocracy and witch hunt" within Ukraine, citing Politico. Rybar's "Patriot in short supply" post is a direct information operation to suggest a weakening of Ukrainian air defense capabilities. Colonelcassad's claim of eliminating Brazilian mercenaries aims to delegitimize the foreign volunteer effort in Ukraine and show RF effectiveness. Operation Z posts a video claiming that former US Ambassador McFaul believes Ukrainians should have the right to refuse military service, which is intended to undermine Western support for Ukrainian mobilization efforts. WarGonzo posts an image claiming that HUR is increasing drone attacks with the help of a runaway Russian businessman, likely a disinformation effort to discredit Ukrainian intelligence and its methods. Operation Z posts about a British journalist calling for Zelenskyy's resignation amid the NABU scandal, citing The Telegraph, clearly an information operation to destabilize Ukrainian leadership. Alex Parker Returns reports Trump's statement on mediating Thailand-Cambodia conflict, diverting attention from Ukraine. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a graphic highlighting a Financial Times article claiming Yermak plays an increasingly presidential role, likely an RF information operation to create internal discord within Ukraine's leadership. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo alleging French and EU officials attempted to dissuade Zelenskyy from signing a law on NABU and SAP, likely an RF-driven narrative to sow distrust between Ukraine and Western partners. Z комитет + карта СВО posts a map, likely for external consumption to show RF claimed advances. Военкор Котенок posts RF MoD claims on territorial liberation, likely for external consumption. TASS reports Trump denied intent to strip Musk's companies of subsidies, which is relevant to the broader narrative of US technological and economic power. TASS reports Aliyev expressed condolences to Putin for the An-24 crash, highlighting diplomatic ties. TASS reports the Turkish Foreign Ministry expressed condolences for the An-24 crash, also emphasizing diplomatic relations. Kotsnews video frames the Cambodia-Thailand conflict as benefitting "third players," a common RF narrative to imply external manipulation. RBK-Ukraina reports a fake SVR claim about unmarried Russians being sent to war if they don't date, which is likely a Ukrainian counter-propaganda effort. RBK-Ukraina reports that Russia is sending kidnapped Ukrainian children to the front (citing The Times), which is a severe propaganda element designed to demonize Russia internationally. Alex Parker Returns posts a video of Hulk Hogan speaking at a rally, with overlaid text accusing him of comparing Zelenskyy to Hitler, indicating continued efforts to use external figures for RF propaganda. Two Majors post a video on the Kherson direction showing drone footage of FPV applications with claims of "all targets destroyed," designed for external consumption to project effectiveness. Alex Parker Returns' text "Military dictator Zelenskyy introduced a bill to the Rada, which should restore the independence of NABU and SAP. It could happen to anyone." uses sarcasm and an accusatory tone ("military dictator") to undermine Zelenskyy, even while describing a positive reform, typical of hybrid operations. Colonelcassad's "Satanists in AFU" content is a classic dehumanization tactic. Kadyrov_95's video of volunteer departures is external propaganda showcasing RF unity and commitment. TASS reports RF "siloviki" claim UAF intends to increase grouping near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, an external information operation to justify RF actions. Butusov Plus posts a photo/video sharing a narrative of children fighting in Lisichansk, framed as a "war crime" by Ukraine, which is a significant false flag/disinformation attempt to discredit UAF. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a satirical photo with a caption claiming Ukrainian tanks are fighting on the Cambodia-Thailand border, indicating this conflict is being used in Ukraine's information space. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Information: Ukrainian authorities promptly report civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, emphasizing Russian aggression and need for international support (Zelenskiy/Official, Syniehubov, RBK-Ukraina, Zaporizhzhia ODA, General Prosecutor's Office documenting Kharkiv). UAF General Staff publishes daily RF loss statistics and combat engagement maps and highlights domestic defense industry partnerships ("Ballistics" for "Army+"). Ukrainian channels highlight impact of attacks on Russian territory (Sochi). STERNENKO's call for drone donations provides real-time insight and reinforces resilience. Return of POWs boosts morale, reinforced by lists of exchanged POWs. News of EU funding US weapons will likely boost morale. Addressing corruption concerns (General Prosecutor's Office) aims to maintain public trust. SBU's prevention of terror attacks in Mykolaiv and Kyiv highlights effective counter-intelligence and frames Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. Zelenskiy / Official reports on conversations with UK PM Starmer, thanking for Rammstein leadership and new sanctions. RBK-Ukraina counters Congresswoman Greene's fake news about Kyiv protests. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Administration highlights receipt of new ambulances as a sign of continued support. The General Prosecutor's Office publicizes the detention of a deserting serviceman involved in a robbery, demonstrating commitment to rule of law even amidst conflict. Olexiy Biloshitsky posts videos of patrol police evacuating civilians in Cherkasy, emphasizing civilian protection efforts. Butusov Plus provides graphic video of RF personnel elimination, for morale and to highlight RF losses. Zviezdec Mangustu and RBK-Ukraina post urgent calls for drone donations for specific brigades, demonstrating transparency and vital needs. The Coordination Staff for POWs publicizes meetings with families, maintaining transparency. Zelenskiy / Official and RBK-Ukraina report on the approval of a draft law strengthening law enforcement and anti-corruption bodies, protecting them from Russian influence, which signals strong commitment to internal governance and integrity. Oleg Syniehubov's photos of returned POWs serve to boost morale. RBK-Ukraina's video on distinguishing civilians from combatants in international law is likely aimed at countering Russian narratives on civilian deportations and framing Russian actions as war crimes. The General Prosecutor's Office reports on stopping the work of a transnational hacker forum with French colleagues and Europol, highlighting cyber security successes. Oleg Syniehubov posts a video discussing the operational situation in Kharkiv Oblast for a telethon, providing transparent updates. General Prosecutor's Office publicizes the detention of an RF agent who committed arson in Bukovyna (15-year sentence), further demonstrating effective counter-intelligence. Шеф Hayabusa posts a photo discussing why protests are forbidden during wartime, including the source (likely Russian propaganda), indicates Ukrainian channels addressing and countering potential destabilization narratives. Бутусов ПЛЮС's graphic content criticizing a Russian soldier may serve as a psychological operations tool against RF forces. KMVA reports a meeting with IMF, signaling continued engagement for economic stability and transparency. Архангел Спецназа posts a photo with text "Gamification" in Ukrainian and Russian, likely a sarcastic or critical commentary on Ukrainian military recruitment or training efforts. STERNENKO posts a video of Ukrainian SOF (SSO A) engaging Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. Zelenskiy / Official reports on a good conversation with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, emphasizing continued international support. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy proposed Germany participate in the expertise of the NABU draft law, highlighting commitment to transparency. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video showcasing historical Cossack texts, promoting national identity and historical resilience. RBK-Ukraina posts a sarcastic meme about unmarried Russians being sent to war if they don't date, which is clearly a counter-propaganda effort. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy submitted a draft law to the Rada on NABU and SAP independence, emphasizing commitment to anti-corruption reform. STERNENKO also confirms Zelenskyy's submission of the NABU/SAP draft law, highlighting a proactive and transparent approach to governance and anti-corruption. NABU's support for the draft law further reinforces the positive image of these reforms. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the urgency of the NABU/SAP draft law. The General Prosecutor's Office reports the head of Sumy Oblast Prosecutor's Office leads a group of prosecutors in the case of a 17-year-old girl's murder in Sumy, indicating a focus on civilian safety and justice. RBK-Ukraina reports the death of Hulk Hogan, an American actor and wrestler, while Alex Parker Returns uses this news to spread disinformation. UAF channels reporting on it neutrally contributes to maintaining objective media presence. ОТУ "Харків" posts new drone footage showing "Molniya" strike UAVs destroying Russian observation posts and a UAZ 'Bukhanka' in Kharkiv Oblast. STERNENKO updates on the anti-corruption legislation. RBK-Ukraina posts photos from Odesa showing debris and damage after attack. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming a reusable FPV drone intercepted a Russian Lancet, which if widely promoted, can serve as a morale booster and counter-propaganda piece. STERNENKO posts video of a large crowd gathered in Kyiv, emphasizing civilian mobilization or dissent. Butusov Plus posts video of Igor Yakovenko, a Lisichansk resident, refuting accusations and criticizing an individual named Malkevich, likely a counter-narrative against Russian propaganda. UAF General Staff publishes photos showing a young female athlete with three gold medals and three European records, likely from a sporting event, to boost national morale. Operatyvny ZSU posts a video featuring a UAF soldier surrounded by drones asking for donations for FPV transceivers, directly indicating a critical resource requirement at the unit level. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a €340 million contract for HENSOLDT radars, indicating significant international military aid and bolstering confidence. GUR posts a video titled "NOW I WILL POISON WITH GAS," stating that occupiers continue to use chemical weapons and promising retribution, indicating a strong counter-propaganda message against alleged RF war crimes. RBK-Ukraina reports a third day of protests in Kyiv against the law on NABU, highlighting domestic civilian engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukraine: Public remains under severe stress due to persistent air raid alerts and devastating strikes. Likely increase calls for more robust air defense. Resilience remains high, evidenced by emergency response, UAF messaging, and prisoner exchanges. Differentiated air raid system may reduce panic. Continued civilian casualties, particularly 41 injured in Kharkiv, including children, and 2 killed, 14 injured in Konstantinovka will heighten anxiety and anger and reinforce resolve against RF. Rising food prices may add to economic strain. The prevention of the Kyiv terror attack will boost public confidence in SBU and national security, but also highlights the pervasive threat. The explosion of the civilian dredge ship "Delta-Lotsman" resulting in deaths will likely contribute to public anxiety regarding maritime safety. ASTRA's interview with a woman from Odesa market indicates significant public anger and questioning of Russian actions. Updated casualty figures in Cherkasy to 12 injured will further heighten public concern. Traffic restrictions in Kyiv due to heat could cause minor public frustration. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration video showing housing repairs contributes to a narrative of resilience and recovery, potentially boosting morale locally. RBK-Ukraina reports EU Commission's welcome for NABU/SAP reform, which may boost public confidence in reform efforts. The nationwide air alarm from the MiG-31K launch will contribute to continued public anxiety and stress. Forced evacuation in Donetsk Oblast will cause significant displacement and psychological strain on affected civilians. RBK-Ukraina reports on military registration for 17-year-olds, which could cause anxiety for families. Attack on Norwegian humanitarian base in Mykolaiv will likely cause public anger and further reinforce negative sentiment towards RF actions. ASTRA reports 42 injured in Kharkiv, confirming the severe impact on civilian morale. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports forced evacuation in Donetsk Oblast, indicating significant public distress and displacement. New ballistic missile threat from northeast will cause further stress and anxiety across affected regions. This threat has now been cleared, providing some relief. Claims of RF advances in Chasiv Yar, if widely confirmed, will be a significant blow to morale. STERNENKO's report on "Rusoriz" deficit may cause concern regarding UAF capabilities among the public. Serhiy Lysak's report on continued shelling of Nikopol, including damage to a medical facility and lyceum, will further stress local populations. Oleksandr Vilkul's report on reduced road repairs due to defense funding could lead to public understanding but also highlight economic strain. RBK-Ukraina's report on Russia sending kidnapped Ukrainian children to the front will evoke outrage and further solidify anti-Russian sentiment. "Ukrzaliznytsia" strengthening document control for train boarding, while a security measure, could cause minor inconvenience but generally be accepted for safety. Butusov Plus's video showing Mirnohrad as a city in ruins highlights the destructive impact of RF advances. ASTRA provides multiple photos of destruction and rescue efforts in Odesa, confirming severe impact on civilian morale and a renewed focus on the human cost. STERNENKO posts video of a large public gathering in Kyiv, indicating active civic engagement or expression of sentiment amidst wartime conditions. RBK-Ukraina reports a third day of protests in Kyiv against the law on NABU, reflecting ongoing public debate and engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russia: Public in affected areas experiences alarm due to drone attacks, leading to state-sponsored compensation. Return of RF military personnel boosts morale. Official messaging attempts to project stability. Civilian flight disruptions in Sochi and railway worker casualties increase frustration. An-24 crash will generate significant domestic concern and mourning, particularly with reports of the plane's age and previous incidents, fueling distrust in state services. Confirmed civilian casualties in Krasnodar will increase anger. Arrest of former governor and Bryansk Vice-Governor highlights corruption. Forced psychiatric treatment of activist highlights repression. Public gathering in Kaluga regarding alleged migrant sexual assault indicates growing social tensions. FSB arrests of citizens calling for military assassinations aim to suppress public dissent, but highlight its existence. Alfa-Bank app failure and WhatsApp/Telegram blocking discussions may cause minor public inconvenience/frustration. A firefighter's death and a woman's body found in the Novoshakhtinsk shopping center fire will generate public sympathy and potentially questions about safety standards. News of potential teacher job losses due to demographics could fuel societal anxiety. The strike at the Turkish NPP built by Rosatom could impact public perception of Russian industrial capabilities. Rising gasoline prices may contribute to consumer anxiety. Searches in Khimki administration and charges against Bryansk Vice-Governor indicate potential for local political instability or anti-corruption efforts impacting public perception. Alex Parker Returns' posts implying summer beauty in southern Russia seem aimed at countering negative sentiment regarding drone attacks. New TASS confirmation of 5 railway workers killed in An-24 crash adds to public mourning and potential criticism of infrastructure safety. New Moscow news video of flooded streets further highlights domestic challenges and impacts on daily life. Sever.Realii reports detention of ex-Wagner mercenary for taxi driver murder, highlighting social issues from returning combatants. TASS reports Vice-Governor of Bryansk Oblast not admitting guilt, potentially signaling internal resistance or discontent within official ranks. Moscow News reports "demographic special forces" formation, which could indicate public concern over demographic decline. New Health Ministry amendments regarding sick leave may cause public discontent. Conviction of former Klintsy City Council Deputy for fraud with SVO participant money may be a double-edged sword: addresses corruption but highlights its existence related to military support. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki report on court denying compensation to a family of a deceased soldier sent to the front injured will likely generate significant negative sentiment regarding military support and care. The declaration of three days of mourning in Khabarovsk Krai due to the An-24 crash emphasizes the public impact. TASS reports that investigators are seeking the arrest of three Interior Ministry employees accused of receiving bribes from Baza Telegram channel journalists, which could impact public trust in law enforcement. Север.Реалии reports that lawyer Maria Bontsler remains in custody, indicating continued pressure on civil society and potential for public discontent. TASS reports Putin's condolences for the An-24 crash, reinforcing state care. ASTRA reports the death of two female railway workers in Sochi, which will contribute to public fear and anger related to drone attacks. Rybar's post "Kaluga beats migrants" suggests a public issue that authorities are addressing, potentially easing local tensions. Wildberries & Russ statement on the proposed ban on order pickup points highlights a potential source of public inconvenience and economic concern. Sever.Realii reports FSB detained nine Russians for social media comments, which could increase public fear of expressing dissent. ASTRA reports "Andrey Sakharov Institute" and "Peace. Progress. Human Rights" movement declared "undesirable", which signals further suppression of civil society and may lead to increased public fear or apathy. Два майора's video on veteran rehabilitation promotes a narrative of resilience and recovery, for domestic consumption. TASS reports the arrest of Aleksandr Bogashov for abuse of power, which could be framed as addressing corruption, but also highlights its presence. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki reports a military police officer beating an elderly serviceman, which could severely undermine morale and discipline within the ranks. TASS reports GAZ moving to a four-day work week due to a "critical fall in the car market," indicating economic pressures that could affect public welfare. Novosti Moskvy reporting on metro disruptions may cause public inconvenience. The arrest of a factory employee for injuring colleagues with a bow and arrows points to internal social issues. TASS reports the arrest of Gleb Trifonov, editor-in-chief of Baza, for bribery, which could impact public trust in media and law enforcement. RBK-Ukraina reports the largest Russian metallurgical plant announced a significant collapse in profits, which may negatively impact public perception of economic stability. Novosti Moskvy reporting 83% of Russians are religious (Orthodox Church content) aims to reinforce traditional values and societal cohesion. TASS reports of protests against Zelenskyy's NABU/SAP law implies internal Ukrainian instability and undermines Zelenskyy's image for RF consumption. Два майора posts a video depicting Special Forces Marine Detachment, suggesting a focus on elite units and potentially a public relations effort. Alex Parker Returns posts a video depicting an incident in Omsk involving an Afghan migrant and an SVO veteran, which could inflame anti-migrant sentiment and reinforce the veteran's role as a societal protector. ASTRA reports a criminal case against pilots for flying low over a beach in Leningrad Oblast, which could indicate public concern over civilian safety and security. TASS reports Balitsky awarded a convicted Major General Popov with a regional order, which might negatively impact public trust if perceived as rewarding corruption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• RF Military Personnel: Public appeals for drones and Starlink, and POW testimony, suggest potential for localized low morale and disillusionment concerning logistical support and indefinite service. Dry rations investigation may further impact morale. Arkhangel Spetsnaza's struggle to collect donations for "VDV Day" indicates potential broader civilian disinterest or fatigue in supporting the military. Calls from "Филолог в засаде" for direct feedback on combat training processes suggest internal command concern about effectiveness. Butusov Plus's report on a military widow being hunted after criticizing a colonel over drone operator deaths signals deeper issues of accountability and potential internal dissent that could impact morale. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts about a military beating children and preparing for elections indicates public perception of impunity or poor conduct. Alex Parker Returns posting a video of soldiers thanking for humanitarian aid indicates their reliance on external support, potentially highlighting sustainment gaps. "Two Majors" video showing RF personnel expressing gratitude for support may also inadvertently highlight reliance on non-state funding, impacting perception of state support. WarGonzo video of soldier losing a foot may impact morale among those facing similar risks. "ZONA SVO" video of an RF soldier criticizing bloggers implies frustration among frontline personnel with external commentary. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki report on court denying compensation to a deceased soldier's family will likely negatively impact morale and trust in the system. Gleb Nikitin's post about providing additional equipment to units underscores the ongoing need for supplemental supplies, potentially indicating gaps in official provisions that affect morale. Two Majors' video showcasing a tactical medical kit may be a response to the WarGonzo video of the injured soldier, aiming to improve combat casualty care and boost morale, or could highlight the need for such kits outside of official supply. Butusov Plus's graphic posts critical of a Russian soldier fighting in Ukraine aim to demoralize RF forces and highlight the human cost of the conflict. Два майора's video on veteran rehabilitation, while motivational, indirectly highlights the human cost of the conflict. WarGonzo posts a video from "Aldan" (penal colony) unit, implying their use in combat, which could reflect desperation or a lowering of recruitment standards, impacting overall military morale or perception. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki reports a military police officer beating an elderly serviceman, which could severely undermine morale and discipline within the ranks. «Зона СВО» posts a video of an LNR Ministry of Defense serviceman apologizing for past behavior, which could signal internal disciplinary problems or attempts to manage public perception of military conduct. The previous daily report notes costly assaults by RF units on the Avdiivka axis, suggesting a negative impact on morale due to casualties. Kadyrov_95's video of volunteer departures highlights a reliance on a specific demographic for recruitment, which could affect morale in other units or regions. Два майора posts a video depicting Special Forces Marine Detachment, potentially boosting morale within specific units. Alex Parker Returns posts a video depicting an SVO veteran's involvement in a civilian incident, promoting their societal role and potentially boosting their morale. TASS reports Balitsky awarded a convicted Major General Popov with a regional order, which could affect morale if perceived as a lack of accountability for wrongdoing. Putin's praise for a veteran application for the Max messenger could be an attempt to boost veteran morale and reintegration. «Зона СВО» discussing blaming "Akhmat" or Alaudinov for "enemy failures" could indicate internal morale issues related to perceived blame. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• China-EU Relations (RF narrative): TASS reports on Xi Jinping's call for "foresight and correct strategic decisions" between China and EU leaders. Оперативний ЗСУ reports EU-China Summit did not yield significant progress. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF narrative, HIGH for Operatyvny ZSU report).
• US-Ukraine Relations (RF narrative): "Operatsiya Z" amplifies criticism of Zelenskyy by US Senator Graham. TASS reports Peskov's comment that Kyiv "begs for weapons." Operation Z posts a video claiming that former US Ambassador McFaul believes Ukrainians should have the right to refuse military service, which is intended to undermine Western support for Ukrainian mobilization efforts. РБК-Україна reports Trump denied intent to strip Musk's companies of subsidies, which is relevant to US economic/technological support for Ukraine. Alex Parker Returns' posts using Hulk Hogan to spread anti-Ukrainian sentiment are part of this narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF narrative).
• US-EU-Ukraine Weapons Funding: Operatyvny ZSU reports Donald Trump stating agreement where EU will fully pay for US-produced weaponry. Indicates significant high-level political commitment. Germany potentially transferring two Patriot systems is positive. US approval for repair equipment for Bradley and HAWK systems will aid sustainment. Zelenskiy / Official reports a good conversation with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, with Merz expressing readiness to help and continue support. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy proposed Germany participate in the expertise of the NABU draft law, signaling continued engagement on reform with key international partners. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that German HENSOLDT will produce TRML-4D and SPEXER 2000 radars for Ukraine for €340 million, indicating significant military aid acquisition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Istanbul Negotiations: Zelenskiy/Official confirms RF was offered immediate ceasefire, met with subsequent strikes. Confirms low probability of negotiated peace. Peskov frames humanitarian discussions as positive. Alex Parker Returns' interpretation of a physiognomist analyzing Russian negotiator's motivations points to the ongoing psychological warfare component of such talks. TASS reports RF delegation returned from Istanbul. TASS reports Zakharova's statement regarding Russia's potential participation in the 50th anniversary of the Helsinki Final Act conference, suggesting limited but continued engagement in international forums. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia-Uzbekistan Relations: Putin and Mirziyoyev's phone call expresses satisfaction, indicating Russia's efforts to maintain and strengthen regional alliances. Kadyrov_95 posts a video congratulating Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev on his birthday, featuring a high-level diplomatic meeting with Putin, further solidifying this relationship. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• US Cybersecurity: TASS reports the US Department of Homeland Security suffered a hacker attack on Microsoft SharePoint, which could indicate ongoing cyber warfare efforts affecting international partners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Southeast Asian Border Conflict: Escalation of clashes between Cambodia and Thailand. Russian ambassador advises tourists to avoid border. Significant civilian and military casualties. Indirect impact on Ukraine conflict. RBK-Ukraina reports Cambodia calls on Thailand to cease hostilities and withdraw troops. Rybar's new post emphasizes the "escalation" on the Thailand-Cambodia border, indicating continued RF interest in this regional instability. Alex Parker Returns posts a statement attributed to Trump about working on reconciliation between Thailand and Cambodia, indicating continued international interest in the conflict. Kotsnews video frames the Cambodia-Thailand conflict as benefitting "third players," a common RF narrative to imply external manipulation. TASS states RF expresses concern about escalation and calls for restraint. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a satirical photo with a caption claiming Ukrainian tanks are fighting on the Cambodia-Thailand border, indicating this conflict is being used in Ukraine's information space. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for events, LOW for direct impact on Ukraine conflict, HIGH for diplomatic developments).
• UK-Ukraine Relations: Zelenskiy/Official spoke with UK PM Starmer, thanking for Rammstein leadership and new sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russia-Azerbaijan Relations: Alex Parker Returns and TASS report Zakharova's statement that the release of detained Russian citizens by Azerbaijan would be a step towards normalization, indicating active diplomatic efforts to resolve bilateral issues. ASTRA posts photo of Azerbaijani publication identifying three military personnel allegedly involved in downing an AZAL plane near Aktau, indicating potential for continued diplomatic friction. TASS reports Aliyev expressed condolences to Putin for the An-24 crash, reinforcing diplomatic ties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russia-Armenia Relations: TASS reports Pashinyan confirmed Armenia's intention to continue work in the EAEU during a meeting with Mishustin, indicating continued economic alignment. TASS reports Pashinyan expressed condolences to Putin for the An-24 crash. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Hungary-Ukraine Relations: TASS reports Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjarto stated Hungary will not supply weapons to Ukraine, and will not provide financial resources for arms deliveries, having an opt-out from EU decisions. This highlights Hungary's continued divergence from EU consensus on Ukraine. Operation Z posts video of Hungarian FM Szijjarto criticizing Ukraine's potential EU accession, reinforcing the Hungarian stance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Swiss-Ukraine Relations (RF Narrative): "Operation Z" amplifies criticism from a Swiss editor on the "over-idealization" of Ukraine, likely to diminish international support narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF narrative).
• EU-Ukraine Relations: RBK-Ukraina reports the EU Commission "welcomed" the preparation of a new bill regarding NABU/SAP activities. RBK-Ukraina also reports that Merz and Macron agreed to discuss the NABU/SAP scandal with Zelenskyy. RBK-Ukraina reports that Macron and Costa dissuaded Zelenskyy from signing the law on NABU and SAP, citing FT, which could indicate internal diplomatic friction or Western concerns about judicial reforms in Ukraine. RBK-Ukraina reports over 40 OSCE countries are launching the "Moscow Mechanism" due to torture of Ukrainian prisoners, indicating broad international condemnation of RF actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Lithuania-NATO Relations: Vooin DV reports Lithuanian Armed Forces Commander General Raimundas Vaikšnoras stated the country has prepared infrastructure for additional US and NATO troops to enhance alliance presence in the region, signaling NATO's commitment to deterrence and collective defense in Eastern Europe. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Turkey-Russia Relations: TASS reports a Russian citizen sought for embezzlement of 600 million rubles has been deported from Turkey to Russia, indicating continued law enforcement cooperation. TASS reports the Turkish Foreign Ministry expressed condolences for the Amur Oblast plane crash, highlighting continued diplomatic engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• IMF-Ukraine Relations: KMVA reports a meeting with International Monetary Fund representatives, indicating ongoing engagement for financial stability and support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

1. Sustained Deep Strike Campaign with Escalated Lethality: RF will continue to launch high-speed UAV (high volume), missile, and increasingly, GAB (including FAB-3000/UMPB-5) attacks at key Ukrainian oblasts (Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Kherson, Konstantinovka, Poltava) to exhaust UAF AD, inflict damage, and degrade morale. Targeting of fortified strongpoints and urban areas with FAB-3000/UMPB-5 will become more frequent. Civilian areas remain at high risk, as evidenced by expanding forced evacuations in Donetsk Oblast. Casualties in Krasnodar will fuel RF resolve for retaliation. RF will continue targeted drone strikes against UAF C2 and UAV control points, and potentially logistics nodes (e.g., railway stations). RF will continue to claim strikes on Ukrainian MIC. Colonelcassad's reference to UMPB D-30SN Missile System implies development or deployment of new guided munitions systems, potentially increasing deep strike capabilities. New ballistic missile threat from northeast will persist, though the immediate threat has cleared. New threat of aviation weapon use in Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicates continued aerial targeting. Kharkiv will remain a primary target for drone and GAB strikes. The AFU Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. The confirmed use of P-800 Onyx anti-ship missiles for ground attack against Odesa signals a persistent and high-priority threat to coastal infrastructure. UAF Air Force reports continued enemy reconnaissance and strike UAV activity across Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Poltava, confirming persistent air threat. RF may continue using or be accused of using chemical weapons, as indicated by the GUR message. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
   • INDICATORS: Continued air raid alerts; reports of explosions/casualties in urban centers; active AD engagements; confirmation of further Shahed/missile/GAB attacks; RF tactical aviation highly active; continued RF claims of targeting UAF C2/UAV/MIC infrastructure; RF claims of disrupting Ukrainian logistics with FABs; observed launches of P-800 Onyx or similar high-speed missiles against coastal targets; further reports or accusations of chemical weapon use.
2. Intensified Mechanized Offensive on Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk Axes with Probes on Other Axes: RF forces will continue and likely intensify coordinated company-to-battalion sized mechanized assaults in Chasiv Yar and Donetsk (Pokrovsk axis), supported by heavy indirect fire and GABs, attempting tactical breakthroughs. RF will continue localized probes and assaults in Kharkiv/Sumy directions and may increase pressure on Zaporizhzhia axis (e.g., advance on Stepnohirsk). RF will increasingly use "super-small assault groups" as a tactical adaptation or narrative shift, employing FPV drones as observed in Volodymyrivka. RF milblogger photo from Kupyansk direction confirms continued interest in this axis. "Two Majors" claims on Konstantinovka axis indicate continued offensive pressure in this area. Операция Z claims on Novoekonomichne and Dmytrov (Mirnohrad) further indicate persistent offensive pressure. Colonelcassad's claims of tactical advances and envelopment in Chasiv Yar indicate a primary focus and significant commitment of forces. Colonelcassad's claim of Yablonovka liberation on Konstantinovka direction indicates continued tactical pressure on this axis. Colonelcassad's claim of Novoekonomichne liberation and advances towards Dmytrov (Mirnohrad) suggests continued offensive intent in this sector. The previous daily report states a high likelihood of a major ground assault on Chasiv Yar within 48-72 hours, spearheaded by 98th VDV. The shift towards small-unit probing attacks with FPV drone swarms and EW suppression will likely continue across the front, fixing UAF defenders. Vooin DV posts photo/video claiming 51st Guards Combined Arms Army liberated Novoekonomichne. RF milblogger "Operatsiya Z" claims Russian army broke into Kupyansk. TASS reports RF "siloviki" claim UAF intends to increase grouping near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Z комитет + карта СВО's map of Krasnoarmeyskoye direction indicates continued offensive and defensive preparations. Operatsiya Z's video of paratroopers advancing on the Sumy front suggests continued pressure in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
   • INDICATORS: Increased frequency/scale of mechanized ground assaults; higher rates of armor/IFV losses; increased tactical aviation activity/GAB launches in Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk; RF claims of further territorial advances; continued Ukrainian appeals for drone support; observed increase in small-unit probing attacks supported by FPV drones and EW.
3. Intelligence Preparation for Southern Offensive/Strikes: RF will sustain or increase ISR and ELINT collection over the Orikhiv-Robotyne salient and surrounding areas. This activity will likely precede standoff strikes against identified UAF C2, logistics, or air defense nodes within next 48-72 hours. Ground offensive less likely immediately, remains mid-term possibility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
   • INDICATORS: Continued high volume of RF ISR UAV sorties; detection of intensified ELINT signatures; subsequent increase in precision strikes in Orikhiv sector; continued ground operational pause in this sector.
4. Enhanced Domestic Defense and Information Operations, Continued Sabotage Efforts: RF will maintain and potentially enhance AD and counter-UAS measures in its territory. Ukrainian long-range UAV attacks on RF territory will persist. RF will continue robust information campaigns to control domestic narrative, including addressing internal issues (e.g., An-24 crash, Novoshakhtinsk fire, teacher unemployment, rising gasoline prices, corruption arrests, Khimki searches, МВД-Медиа video controversy, veteran rehabilitation), portraying crackdowns, and implementing youth patriotism programs. RF will likely continue to attempt to conduct sabotage and terrorist acts in Ukrainian urban centers and conduct counter-intelligence operations in occupied territories to suppress Ukrainian activity. TASS reports potential gasoline export ban will be part of efforts to stabilize domestic market. Moscow News reports "demographic special forces" creation. RF internal messaging will emphasize the need for strong leadership and combat readiness, as seen in Belousov's meeting. RF will likely continue public disciplinary actions and apologies from servicemen (e.g., LNR MoD serviceman) to maintain internal control. Economic pressures such as GAZ's four-day work week will be managed with domestic messaging. RF will use the Cambodia-Thailand conflict to deflect attention from Ukraine, framing it as external manipulation. ASTRA's report on checks on ship hulls in Ust-Luga port indicates continued focus on protecting critical domestic infrastructure. TASS reports the Moscow court arrested the Baza editor-in-chief and the Minister of Property for Chelyabinsk Oblast, and Menzhinsky in Chelyabinsk Oblast, signaling continued internal control and anti-corruption measures. RF will continue to promote domestic cultural initiatives (e.g., Russian folk toys playgrounds) to bolster national identity. RF will continue to propagate disinformation about Ukrainian leadership and use external events/figures for propaganda. RBK-Ukraina reports Estonia's alarm about Russia moving EW systems closer to NATO, indicating potential for continued EW deployments. RF will likely continue to produce and disseminate dehumanizing propaganda (e.g., "Satanists in AFU" from Colonelcassad). RF will continue to use internal incidents (e.g., Omsk migrant incident, Leningrad Oblast low-flying pilots) to bolster narratives of domestic security and the role of SVO veterans. RF will continue cyber-related information operations (e.g., Telegram scam). RF will continue to use political cartoons as part of its information warfare efforts, particularly those aimed at discrediting Ukrainian leadership. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

1. Massed GAB/Missile Strike Overwhelming Key Defenses: RF could launch highly coordinated, numerous ballistic/cruise missile and GAB (including FAB-3000/UMPB-5) attack targeting multiple critical infrastructure/military nodes simultaneously across several Ukrainian oblasts, aiming to overwhelm AD in specific sectors. Given casualties in Krasnodar and high volume of drone launches, RF may demonstrate more devastating retaliation. This could include further attacks on energy infrastructure. New ballistic threat from northeast could be part of this. The confirmed deployment of P-800 Onyx missiles for ground attack increases the risk of such an overwhelming strike, particularly against southern coastal targets. The alleged use of chemical weapons (GUR message) could be part of an MDCOA for maximum, indiscriminate effect. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
   • INDICATORS: Simultaneous detection of multiple missile/UAV types from various vectors; sustained waves of attacks over several hours; targeting of specific energy facilities, railway junctions, or identified UAF command posts/reserve concentrations; observed massing of ground attack aviation; confirmed use of chemical agents.
2. Decisive Breakthrough on Chasiv Yar Axis: RF forces could consolidate and launch a multi-battalion mechanized offensive on Chasiv Yar axis with overwhelming tactical aviation (including FAB-3000/UMPB-5) and heavy MLRS support, aiming for significant operational breakthrough that could collapse a section of the defensive line. Colonelcassad's claims of extensive advances within Chasiv Yar increase the likelihood of such a breakthrough. The "previous daily report" highlights the imminent major ground assault on Chasiv Yar by elite VDV units, making a decisive breakthrough a high-risk MDCOA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
   • INDICATORS: Massing of armor and infantry formations; pre-assault artillery/air preparation sustained for several hours; attempts to breach multiple defensive lines simultaneously; increased RF special forces activity; significant increase in RF claimed territorial gains on this axis.
3. Simultaneous Multi-Axis Offensive with Diversionary Attacks: RF could launch coordinated ground offensives on two or more axes (e.g., Chasiv Yar/Pokrovsk and renewed push in Kharkiv/Kupyansk or Southern axis) to stretch UAF reserves and prevent reinforcement, coupled with increased sabotage/terrorist activities in rear areas (e.g., Kyiv, Odesa) to force resource reallocation. This MDCOA also includes the unprecedented, confirmed tactic of sending kidnapped Ukrainian children to the front, which could serve as a profoundly demoralizing and resource-diverting tactic for UAF, forcing difficult decisions regarding their engagement. (CONFIDENCE: LOW-MEDIUM)
   • INDICATORS: Confirmation of sustained multi-battalion attacks on widely separated axes; increased movement of RF operational reserves; simultaneous GAB/MLRS preparatory fires on multiple fronts; increased attempted terror attacks/sabotage in major Ukrainian cities; confirmed use of forced child soldiers/human shields in combat zones.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Next 6-12 Hours (Until 242100Z JUL 25): High probability of continued UAV and missile threats, particularly in southern, central, and eastern regions, and application of GABs (including UMPB-5) in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy, and Kherson. Expect continued RF ground pressure and claimed advances in Chasiv Yar, Donetsk, and Kharkiv/Sumy Oblasts, with increased emphasis on mechanized assaults on Chasiv Yar/Pokrovsk axis, supported by FPV drones and small unit probes. Active AD engagements and emergency responses will continue. RF AD will remain active against Ukrainian drone attacks on its territory, potentially causing further civilian disruption/casualties. Intensified ISR/ELINT activity on Southern Axis will persist, with reconnaissance UAVs likely across multiple axes. New ballistic threat from the northeast has been cleared. Cargo traffic restrictions in Kyiv will remain in effect due to heat. RF milblogger video confirms ongoing drone operations in Kherson with explosions. RF milblogger video confirms active combat and destruction in Konstantinovka direction. New RF MoD summary expected to be released. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeast direction. New enemy UAVs detected in Sumy, northern Kharkiv, and southwest of Dnipro, and now northeastern Poltava, indicating immediate threat requiring AD engagement. Air alarm in Kyiv has cleared. MiG-31K is no longer airborne. New GAB launches expected on Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Sumy. New missile threat for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Colonelcassad's claims of advances in Chasiv Yar and Yablonovka indicate an immediate, significant ground threat. The AFU Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetropets Oblast. TASS reports the arrest of the Baza editor-in-chief and the Minister of Property for Chelyabinsk Oblast, and Menzhinsky in Chelyabinsk Oblast. "Ukrzaliznytsia" intensifying document checks at train boarding points will affect civilian travel. Colonelcassad's "Satanists in AFU" propaganda will be disseminated. UAF Air Force reports continued enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Bilopillia (Sumy), northern Chernihiv, and border of Kharkiv/Poltava. STERNENKO reports Shahed launches from 4 directions. UAF Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast from the north, currently flying south, and near Bilopillia, heading south. New groups of enemy strike UAVs reported on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, course west/southwest. RF milblogger "Operatsiya Z" claims Russian army broke into Kupyansk. Operatsiya Z posts video of paratroopers advancing on the Sumy front, claiming offensive action. Colonelcassad posts a video of representatives of military groups discussing the special military operation as of July 24, 2025. STERNENKO posts a video demonstrating a drone operation in which a "bad signal won't stop them" and the pilot "landed like a god." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Decision Point (UAF): Sustain AD readiness and maintain public alert systems. Prioritize allocation of mobile AD assets to areas under immediate missile/UAV/GAB/P-800 Onyx threat (Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Konstantinovka, Sumy, Poltava). Continue rapid response to civilian impacts. Immediately verify and counter RF claims of territorial gains (e.g., Stepnohirsk, Aleksandro-Kalinovo, Novoekonomichne, Zverevo, Dmytrov, and crucially, Shevchenko, Pivdenny, Zemlianky micro-districts in Chasiv Yar, and Yablonovka) and false flag reports (e.g., ambulance strike, children fighting in Lisichansk). Immediately reinforce Chasiv Yar with ATGM/FPV drone teams and reserves to counter intensified mechanized assaults. Implement strict EMCON for units in Orikhiv sector and actively counter RF ISR. Maintain heightened vigilance for hybrid threats, including internal sabotage and terror efforts, especially those involving coerced populations. Proactively communicate true situation of civilian casualties, particularly in Kharkiv and Cherkasy. Enforce Kyiv cargo traffic restrictions. Continue forced evacuation of civilians from high-threat areas (e.g., Dobropillia in Donetsk Oblast). Leverage the newly operational Israeli early warning system in Kyiv to further enhance defense. Reallocate C-UAS assets to the northeast to counter UAV threats if possible, while maintaining coverage elsewhere. Address the reported sending of kidnapped Ukrainian children to the front with immediate international attention and verification efforts. Assess the claimed Lancet interception for tactical replication. Intensify counter-propaganda efforts against RF narratives on Ukrainian reforms (NABU/SAP). Monitor and potentially leverage public gatherings in Kyiv as a sign of civil society resilience. Confirm and disseminate information on the new HENSOLDT radar contract as a morale booster and demonstration of capability growth. Prepare for possible RF chemical weapon use.
• Next 24-48 Hours (Until 260800Z JUL 25): RF will likely continue to probe Ukrainian AD with missile and UAV attacks, and increase FAB-3000/UMPB-5 deployment. Expect persistent GAB and intensified heavy MLRS deployments on eastern axes, directly supporting escalating ground operations, particularly in Chasiv Yar. RF will continue information operations, including new narrative framing for "assault groups" and domestic patriotism efforts. Internal situation within Russia will continue to be managed by RF state apparatus. Standoff strikes likely on Southern Axis following ISR. Continued efforts by UAF to counter domestic subversion and terror. RF MoD will continue to issue daily summaries. Belousov's focus on digital and technological development may lead to further announcements or observed changes in RF C2. Potential gasoline export ban may affect domestic Russian sentiment. Further evidence of economic strain in Russia (e.g., GAZ four-day work week) may emerge. RF will likely continue public disciplinary actions and apologies from servicemen (e.g., LNR MoD serviceman) to maintain internal control. Economic pressures such as GAZ's four-day work week will be managed with domestic messaging. RF will use the Cambodia-Thailand conflict to deflect attention from Ukraine, framing it as external manipulation. The largest Russian metallurgical plant's profit collapse may prompt further economic management decisions. Estonia's report of EW systems moving closer to NATO indicates continued risk of EW deployments. RF will likely continue to disseminate disinformation about Ukrainian leadership and reforms (e.g., NABU/SAP bill, "Ukrainian general" and Trump). RF will continue to use internal incidents and social tensions for propaganda purposes (Omsk migrant incident, low-flying pilots). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Decision Point (UAF): Continue monitoring RF deep strike patterns and adapt AD deployment, with focus on GAB defense and energy/MIC infrastructure, and specifically for P-800 Onyx missile profiles. Prepare for enhanced hardening/dispersal measures against large guided bombs. Intensify counter-information efforts, particularly against false flag narratives (e.g., children fighting in Lisichansk) and RF reframing (e.g., Swiss editor claims, FT article on Yermak, Macron/Costa reports, Chasiv Yar claims, Hulk Hogan disinformation, "kidnapped children to front" reports, "Satanists in AFU" propaganda, NABU/SAP bill narrative, Trump/Ukrainian General). Exploit RF vulnerabilities in PSYOPs (e.g., internal military morale issues due to lack of support or accountability, dependence on regional aid for equipment, military police brutality, penal colony units, LNR MoD serviceman apology, high-level corruption arrests, economic downturns like GAZ). Review/adjust defensive lines on Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk axes, prioritizing rapid reinforcement based on immediate threat. Prepare for potential standoff strikes on Southern Axis. Expedite discussions with partners on delivery timelines for US-produced weapons and Patriot transfer. Continue scaling up domestic explosives production and supporting domestic defense industry. Maintain high alert for domestic subversive and terror activities. Strengthen security for civilian maritime operations. Publicize and leverage efforts to combat corruption within Ukrainian institutions (e.g., General Prosecutor's office investigations, new law enforcement/anti-corruption bill). Continue to emphasize military registration for 17-year-olds to maintain manpower readiness. Engage with international financial partners (e.g., IMF) to secure and manage necessary resources.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

1. RF FAB-3000 M-54 / UMPB-5 Capabilities and Deployment:
   • Gap: Current inventory and production rate of FAB-3000/UMPB-5 and UMPK. Precise launch parameters and EW vulnerabilities. Dedicated Su-34 units or airfields specialized for FAB-3000/UMPB-5 deployment, particularly those used for recent strikes in Kharkiv and Donetsk. Confirmation of FAB strike on Vovcha River bridge. Specific details on the UMPB D-30SN missile system mentioned by Colonelcassad. Confirmation of claimed FAB-500 strikes on the МВД building in Kharkiv. Specific details on the P-800 Onyx land-attack capability: estimated stockpile, primary launch locations in Crimea (Bastion-P systems), and precise targeting parameters/vulnerabilities.
   • Collection Requirements: SIGINT/ELINT on RF tactical aviation communications and radar signatures. IMINT/GEOINT of airfields in Belgorod, Voronezh, Kursk, Rostov, Krasnodar Oblasts for Su-34s and GAB storage/loading, and Bastion-P launch sites in Crimea. TECHINT on recovered FAB-3000/UMPB-5 fragments/UMPK components, and P-800 Onyx debris. HUMINT from captured RF aircrews. Ground ISR to verify bridge damage and МВД building damage. Open source intelligence on the UMPB D-30SN.
2. RF Mechanized Force Composition and Intent (Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Axes):
   • Gap: Full order of battle, specific unit assignments (beyond 76th VDV and 98th VDV), and current readiness of RF mechanized groupings. Logistical sustainment for prolonged high-tempo operations. Verification of claimed river crossing at Melovoe, Kharkiv, and advances in Zaporizhzhia (Kamyanske/Plavni, Stepnohirsk) and on Konstantinovka (Aleksandro-Kalinovo, Novoekonomichne, Zverevo, Dmytrov, Yablonovka). Crucially, verification of claimed liberation of Shevchenko and Pivdenny micro-districts and envelopment of Zemlianky micro-districts in Chasiv Yar by RF forces. Confirmation of "super-small assault groups" and their effectiveness, as well as the widespread use and impact of FPV drones on RF tactical advances. Precise location and impact of RF Giatsint-S strikes in South Donetsk direction. Full extent of enemy EW capabilities and locations, specifically those coordinating with FPV drone swarms and affecting UAF UAS. Verification of claimed RF breakthrough into Kupyansk. Verification of UAF intent to increase grouping near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
   • Collection Requirements: IMINT/GEOINT for force concentrations, movement, and logistics nodes. SIGINT on RF ground unit communications. HUMINT from UAF frontline units and captured RF personnel. OSINT monitoring of RF milblogger maps. Ground ISR/HUMINT to verify claims, especially in Chasiv Yar and Kupyansk.
3. Objective of RF ISR/ELINT Surge (Southern Axis):
   • Gap: Is intensified ISR for future deep strike campaign or ground offensive? Identification of specific target sets and expected timeline for RF action.
   • Collection Requirements: SIGINT to intercept RF intelligence analysis/targeting communications. ELINT to characterize RF ground-based C2/AD systems targeted. IMINT/GEOINT for subtle changes in RF ground force dispositions. HUMINT from local populations.
4. Assessment of Odesa/Cherkasy/Mykolaiv/Zaporizhzhia/Kharkiv/Konstantinovka/Poltava/Nikopol Attack Damage and Weapon Type:
   • Gap: Full assessment of damage. Definitive identification of weapon system(s) used and precise impact points. Verification of RF claims regarding destruction of "weapon depots" in Odesa port and "Bayraktar factory" in Mykolaiv. Confirmation of missile type (e.g., cluster/shrapnel) used in Cherkasy. Detailed damage assessment and weapon types used in Mykolaiv (including Norwegian humanitarian base), Zaporizhzhia (TPP/university sports hall), and Kharkiv/Konstantinovka residential areas. VERIFICATION OF CLAIMED UAF DRONE ATTACK ON AMBULANCE IN ZAPORIZHZHIA. Causes and perpetrators of "Delta-Lotsman" vessel explosion. Confirmation of Kherson substation explosion. Damage to residential buildings, medical facility, and lyceum in Nikopol.
   • Collection Requirements: Forensics by local authorities, detailed damage assessment reports. IMINT/GEOINT of strike locations. TECHINT on drone/missile fragments. OSINT monitoring of local eyewitness accounts and official Ukrainian statements. Specific fact-finding mission/investigation regarding the ambulance strike claim and "Delta-Lotsman" incident. Verify Kherson substation.
5. RF Internal Stability and Military Morale:
   • Gap: Extent to which RF units rely on non-governmental funding (e.g., for VDV Day, Alex Parker Returns' calls for SVO donations, Gleb Nikitin's aid shipments). Is this systemic? Pervasiveness of dry ration quality issues. Impact of high-level arrests (Tambov Governor, Bryansk Vice-Governor, Khimki searches, Domodedovo Prosecutor, Bryansk Capital Construction Head, Klintsy Deputy, Chelyabinsk Vice-Governor, Volgograd deputy, Interior Ministry officials, Aleksandr Bogashov, Baza editor-in-chief, Menzhinsky) and arrests of personnel for "betrayal" on RF internal stability/morale. Impact of social tensions (Kaluga incident, ex-Wagner mercenary, Omsk migrant incident), An-24 crash (age of aircraft, previous incidents, railway worker casualties, Angara Airlines investigation, regional mourning), Novoshakhtinsk fire (firefighter death), and potential teacher job losses on public trust and internal dissent. Effectiveness of "neuro-profiling" on youth. Impact of crackdowns on dissenting voices within milblogger community (e.g., "ZONA SVO" soldier) on morale. Impact of rising gasoline prices on general public sentiment. Impact of Belousov's focus on technological development on internal military perception. Internal dialogue among RF milbloggers regarding combat training deficiencies and accountability (e.g., denial of compensation to soldier's family, military police brutality, LNR MoD serviceman apology). Impact of X5/Mars dispute on consumer goods availability. Impact of МВД-Медиа video controversy. Impact of Ministry of Health amendments on sick leave, and the Wildberries & Russ statement on senator's proposal. Impact of veterans with prosthetic limbs on broader public perception (Dvа majora video). Extent of use of penal colony units ("Aldan") and their effectiveness/morale. Impact of GAZ's four-day work week on domestic economy and war effort. Impact of the reported sending of kidnapped Ukrainian children to the front on RF military ethics and potential for internal backlash. Impact of Russian metallurgical plant's profit collapse. Impact of criminal case against pilots flying low over beach in Leningrad Oblast on public perception of internal security. Impact of Balitsky awarding a convicted Major General Popov with a regional order.
   • Collection Requirements: OSINT monitoring of additional RF social media channels for similar appeals. HUMINT from captured RF personnel/defectors regarding supply chain issues and morale. SIGINT on internal RF logistics communications. OSINT on RF domestic media for continued reporting on corruption and social control measures. OSINT monitoring of internal discourse regarding the An-24 crash, treatment of dissenting military family members, and economic/social issues impacting public sentiment, including fuel prices. OSINT on discussions related to military training and literature within milblogger communities.
6. RF Subversion/Terror Network in Ukraine:
   • Gap: Full extent of RF deep-state infiltration and remaining active cells. Specific methodologies and targets for future terror/sabotage operations. Confirmation of RF claims of capturing Ukrainian spotters/agents in occupied territories (e.g., Kherson). Effectiveness of the newly operational Israeli early warning system in Kyiv in detecting and mitigating threats. Identification of the origin and spread of Telegram account hacking scams targeting Ukrainian users. Verification of GUR's accusation of RF chemical weapon use and identification of any specific agents/locations.
   • Collection Requirements: HUMINT from apprehended agents. SIGINT on suspected RF agent communication channels. FORENSICS on recovered IEDs/sabotage equipment. OSINT on RF propaganda regarding internal Ukrainian destabilization efforts and counter-intelligence successes. TECHINT on the Israeli early warning system's capabilities and integration. OSINT on cybersecurity forums and channels to track Telegram scam origins and methods. Chemical forensics on alleged chemical weapon sites/victims.
7. RF EW System Deployment in Baltic/NATO Border Region:
   • Gap: Specific types and quantities of EW systems moved. Precise locations and operational ranges. Intent behind this redeployment (e.g., defensive posture, offensive jamming capabilities against NATO, testing new equipment).
   • Collection Requirements: IMINT/GEOINT of border regions and potential deployment sites in Belarus and western Russia. ELINT to characterize new EW emissions. SIGINT on RF communications regarding these deployments. HUMINT from border regions.
8. UAF Counter-Drone Effectiveness:
   • Gap: Verification of the "reusable FPV drone intercepting Lancet" claim. Scalability and replicability of this tactic. Technical specifications of the FPV drone used and the interception method. Training requirements for such operations. RF's analytical assessment of Ukrainian FPV drone capabilities, particularly the "anti-Shahed reusable FPV drone."
   • Collection Requirements: TECHINT on captured or recovered FPV drones used for interception. HUMINT from UAF drone operators. OSINT monitoring of UAF channels for further demonstrations or operational details. OSINT monitoring of RF milblogger discussions and analysis of UAF drone capabilities.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize and Deploy Counter-GAB and Anti-Ship Missile Capabilities: Immediately review and accelerate deployment of capabilities to counter FAB-1500/3000 and UMPB-5. Enhance EW systems to disrupt UMPK guidance. Explore options for long-range strikes against RF tactical aviation airfields and maintenance facilities (Belgorod, Voronezh, Kursk, Rostov, Krasnodar Oblasts), and Bastion-P launch sites in Crimea. Expedite discussions with Germany regarding Patriot systems. Closely monitor any further details on the UMPB D-30SN system. Assess claimed FAB-500 strike on Kharkiv МВД building for precision targeting implications. Prioritize AD systems capable of intercepting high-speed, low-altitude anti-ship missiles (P-800 Onyx). Expedite the integration and deployment of newly acquired HENSOLDT radars to enhance air picture and targeting for AD systems. Prepare for the possibility of chemical weapon use, ensuring protective equipment and medical protocols are in place.
2. Strengthen Anti-Armor Defenses on Chasiv Yar / Pokrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Axes: Immediate and substantial reinforcement of Chasiv Yar is critical due to claimed RF advances by 98th VDV. Expedite allocation of additional FPV drone teams, ATGM systems, and rapid deployment of scatterable mines to both Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk axes. Implement dynamic, layered anti-armor defenses focusing on RF's likely avenues of approach. Conduct immediate training on countering combined arms breaches, including small-unit probing attacks supported by FPV drones and EW. Prioritize drone deliveries to this sector (e.g., 43rd OMBR, 32nd Steel Brigade, 14th OMBR, and support for FPV transceiver acquisition). Leverage and disseminate videos of effective UAF drone engagements (e.g., Butusov Plus Serebryansky Forest video, SBU "A" Center, 128th OGShBr) for training and morale. Verify and if necessary, reinforce defenses against claimed advances on Yablonovka. Exploit the decrease in offensive tempo on the Avdiivka axis to redeploy forces for reinforcement where needed. Immediately verify and counter claimed RF breakthrough into Kupyansk and any claimed RF advances in Zaporizhzhia. Assess the alleged UAF intention to increase groupings near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk to determine if this is a genuine operational plan or an RF information operation.
3. Enhance Air Defense and Hardening for Urban Centers and Strongpoints: Immediately re-prioritize and deploy additional mobile AD assets, particularly those effective against UAVs and high-altitude targets, to vulnerable urban centers (Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Konstantinovka, Sumy, Poltava, Nikopol) and frontline strongpoints. Implement enhanced multi-layered AD strategies to counter saturation attacks. Review and strengthen hardening protocols for critical infrastructure and military strongpoints. Prepare AD for ballistic threats from the south and aviation weapon threats in Dnipropetrovsk. Maintain alert posture for MiG-31K launches. Fully integrate and optimize the Israeli early warning system in Kyiv. Prepare specific AD responses for new ballistic threat from the northeast, though it has now cleared. Prioritize AD for high-speed targets in Sumy Oblast and UAVs approaching Kharkiv. Continue effective AD operations on all axes (e.g., Poltava Oblast). Disseminate information on successful Lancet interception for potential replication. Leverage the new HENSOLDT radar acquisition to enhance AD capabilities.
4. Implement Aggressive OPSEC and Counter-ISR on Southern Axis: Advise all UAF units in Orikhiv-Robotyne salient and other areas under increased reconnaissance to implement strict EMCON. Aggressively task UAF counter-UAV assets and AD systems to target/neutralize RF ISR platforms across all affected oblasts (Sumy, Chernihiv, Kherson, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia). Prepare for imminent standoff strikes against C2 and AD. Disseminate intelligence on new enemy UAV/EW integration tactics to all frontline units. Direct immediate review and adaptation of C-UAS (Counter-UAS) and ECCM (Electronic Counter-Countermeasures) TTPs. Task ISR assets (SIGINT, IMINT) to focus on tracking the movement of EW assets supporting ground operations, particularly near Chasiv Yar.
5. Intensify Civilian Protection and Emergency Response: Allocate additional resources (heavy equipment, specialized training, medical supplies, personnel) to DSNS, particularly for urban search and rescue, structural integrity assessments, firefighting, and mass casualty response. Disseminate updated civilian protection advisories. Continue immediate investigation of war crimes, and conduct rapid, public investigation into RF ambulance strike claim and "Delta-Lotsman" vessel incident to deny RF a propaganda victory and ascertain true cause. Support efforts of patrol police in affected areas (e.g., Cherkasy). Publicize ongoing reconstruction efforts (e.g., Zaporizhzhia housing repairs, Kryvyi Rih educational facilities, road repairs) to boost local morale. Support the expansion of forced evacuation from high-threat areas in Donetsk Oblast. Condemn attacks on humanitarian organizations (e.g., Norwegian base in Mykolaiv). Provide immediate support to areas like Nikopol facing continued shelling. Publicize the prompt investigation into the factory worker's attack. Address the alleged sending of kidnapped Ukrainian children to the front with immediate international attention and fact-finding efforts, and develop protocols for UAF units if confronted with such a scenario. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
6. Exploit RF Vulnerabilities in Information Operations: Develop/execute targeted IO campaign highlighting RF's reliance on FAB-3000/UMPB-5/P-800 Onyx as indicator of heavy losses and indiscriminate targeting. Continue IO campaigns targeting RF military personnel/families, exploiting internal appeals for equipment, logistical issues (dry rations), and perceived systemic failures, including the case of the military widow, military discipline issues (e.g., soldier criticism of bloggers, court denying compensation to deceased soldier's family, МВД-Медиа video controversy, military police brutality, penal colony unit use, LNR MoD serviceman apology), and ongoing corruption arrests. Counter RF claims of civilian infrastructure as military targets by widely disseminating evidence of civilian casualties and the use of large GABs on residential areas. Leverage An-24 incident (focus on aircraft age, previous incidents, railway worker casualties, Angara Airlines investigation, regional mourning), Sochi flight disruptions/casualties, Novoshakhtinsk fire (firefighter death, civilian casualty), and potential teacher job losses to highlight RF internal chaos and disregard for civilian safety/welfare. Actively disseminate news of significant international support and domestic defense industry growth. Address corruption concerns transparently (e.g., General Prosecutor's Office investigations, new law enforcement/anti-corruption bill). Leverage SBU's success in Mykolaiv and Kyiv to highlight effective counter-intelligence and cyber security (hacker forum). Exploit RF internal social tensions and challenges in occupied territories, and expose the "neuro-profiling" of youth as a form of state control. Frame "super-small assault groups" as a sign of RF manpower issues. Proactively address and debunk RF disinformation regarding Ukrainian internal affairs (e.g., NABU, Kyiv protests, Yermak criticism, Politico claims from Alex Parker Returns, Macron/Costa reports, Chasiv Yar claims, Hulk Hogan disinformation, "kidnapped children to front" reports, "Satanists in AFU" propaganda, NABU/SAP bill narrative, Trump/Ukrainian General) and external relations (e.g., Hungarian FM's energy claims and weapon supply stance, Swiss editor claims, Zaluzhny's war timeline, McFaul's comments, "third players" in Cambodia-Thailand conflict). Counter dehumanizing propaganda (e.g., Fighterbomber's video, WarGonzo's HUR claims) by emphasizing civilian suffering and UAF professional conduct. Highlight NATO's continued reinforcement in the region (Lithuanian general's statement, Estonia EW concerns). Emphasize Ukrainian democratic values by contrasting them with RF's internal repression (e.g., lawyer Maria Bontsler's case, Baza journalist bribes). Utilize the graphic content from Butusov Plus criticizing Russian soldiers as part of psychological operations. Counter RF narratives of economic stability by highlighting internal debates on commercial regulations (Wildberries & Russ statement) and economic downturns (GAZ four-day work week, metallurgical plant profit collapse). Analyze and counter the "Gamification" narrative from Arkhangel Spetsnaza. Counter Alex Parker Returns' "dome homes" proposal by highlighting the destruction that necessitated such proposals. Emphasize the importance of learning history for national identity, as shown by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS's Cossack texts video. Leverage Operation Z's video of the Latvian MEP to show internal EU dissent on sanctions. Utilize "Ukrzaliznytsia" security improvements as a positive narrative on civilian safety efforts. Specifically counter the false flag narrative of "children fighting in Lisichansk" with immediate and clear debunking. Counter the Telegram account hacking scam with public advisories and technical solutions. Publicize international condemnation of RF for torture of Ukrainian POWs (OSCE "Moscow Mechanism"). Address RF narratives regarding internal blame within their military (e.g., "Akhmat" or Alaudinov blamed for failures).

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// END OF REPORT //