Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 240600Z JUL 25

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats lifted; localized Shahed UAV threats persist for Lviv, Southern Ukraine, Dnipropetrovsk (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi, Synelnykivskyi districts), and Kharkiv Oblasts. Confirmed civilian casualties (14 fatalities, multiple injured) across multiple oblasts. Rescue and emergency services are actively engaged. Civilian infrastructure damage confirmed in Odesa due to RF UAV attack. Rocket danger for Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Mykolaiv experiencing power outages. New UAV threat reported in eastern Chernihiv Oblast, moving south/southwest. Two Shahed UAVs confirmed inbound towards Ochakiv from the Black Sea, later reported as intercepted. New UAV threat detected on the border of Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts, moving north. Five Shahed UAVs detected inbound towards Tatarbunary. New UAV threat: 4x Shahed UAVs inbound towards Odesa from the Black Sea (reported by Mykolaiv Vanek). Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAVs moving towards Odesa from eastern and western directions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kryvyi Rih: Multiple reports of explosions due to mass Shahed UAV attack. Fires confirmed and liquidated; no casualties reported. Mayor Vilkul reports situation controlled. Ukrainian official reports two command centers will operate to assist residents whose property was damaged by overnight drone attacks, confirming 8 private homes and around 15 multi-story buildings hit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Northern Ukraine (Kyiv Oblast): Continued Air Defense (AD) engagement against Shahed UAVs over Kyiv. Kinetic impacts on residential/commercial buildings and a metro entrance; one fatality and nine injuries reported. Firefighters engaged a kindergarten fire. RF milblogger claims three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on Kyiv on 21 JUL 25, with video, and a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility. New ballistic missile threat for Kyiv lifted. RBC-Ukraine reports a localized internal security incident (shooting) in Vasylkiv. Crane collapse on Hlybochytska Street due to strong winds/storm affected civilian infrastructure, hospitalizing 5 individuals. Protest observed regarding legislation limiting NABU/SAP powers. Protests against the NABU/SAP law continue for a second day in Kyiv and other major cities, with ongoing gatherings of up to 5,000 people. RBC-Ukraine and STERNENKO photo/video messages confirm protests are also taking place in Lviv. TASS reports over 9,000 people participated in the Kyiv protest against Zelenskyy's alleged "persecution" of anti-corruption services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF claim, likely inflated figures)
• Eastern Ukraine: Initial cruise missile group detected over Kharkiv Oblast, moving towards Poltava Oblast. Kharkiv's Kyivskyi district hit by 12 UAV strikes overnight. RF milblogger claims bomber strikes on UAF forward positions in Yanvarskyi supporting 36th Army advance. New group of RF UAVs reported from Luhansk Oblast moving towards Kharkiv Oblast. Kharkiv Oblast governor confirms strikes on Kharkiv city and 10 settlements. DeepState reports RF advances in Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, and near three other villages in Donetsk Oblast. MoD Russia video claims liberation of Popov Yar. RF milbloggers claim a new RF front opened in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian military operations confirmed near Belaya Gora, Donetsk, with claims of capturing foreign weapons. UAF National Guard "Khartia" brigade drone operators claimed destruction of nearly a platoon of Russian occupiers in Kharkiv Oblast. A tractor driver was blown up by a mine in Balakliia community, Kharkiv Oblast. At least 54 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast affected by enemy strikes over the past week. STERNENKO claims Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment holding back Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast. Liveuamap Source reports recent clashes at Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Gulyaypole, and Kherson directions. Ukrainian forces repelled 23 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. FPV drone strike on Russian UAZ-452 ('Bukhanka') vehicle confirmed. Perovske, Zolochiv community, Kharkiv, shelled. DeepState reports liquidation of RF sabotage groups in Pokrovsk. RF milbloggers claim RF DRG activity in Pokrovsk, with video suggesting an ambush on a UAF vehicle. Threat of aviation munitions for Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. Ukrainian forces repelled 22 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. DeepState analysis indicates RF army occupied Hrushevske and advanced near Voskresenka, Orikhove, Mayak and Zatyhka (formerly Suvorove) in Donetsk Oblast. TASS and MoD Russia claim RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske in DNR. TASS claims RF forces dislodged UAF from strongpoint near Kremenna and took control of 1 hectare of forest. DeepState map updated at 2041Z, indicating potential new changes in frontline positions. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows UAF "hunters" of the 4th MB OPBR targeting enemy forces in the Svatove direction, indicating active UAF operations in this sector. Colonelcassad publishes drone footage of "Anvar" detachment operations, showing strikes on alleged Ukrainian military positions in Kazachya Lopan and Senkivka. This indicates continued RF tactical drone activity and target acquisition in Kharkiv Oblast, near the border. 9x Shahed UAVs inbound on Slobozhanske, Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: TASS reports RF forces advanced near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast, dislodging UAF units from several positions. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports renewed activity in Kharkiv direction, with video showing drone-guided strikes on targets, indicating continued RF pressure. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 video showcases 58th Brigade's use of BM-21 'Grad' MLRS to destroy Russian forces. TASS reports FPV drone operators of the "West" grouping destroyed a Ukrainian "Akatsiya" self-propelled howitzer. Colonelcassad video claims a strike on the 'Ordzhonikidzevsky District Police Department of the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Kharkiv'. Oleg Synegubov provides an update on attacks, weapon types (drones and artillery), impact on civilian infrastructure and residential buildings, and evacuation efforts. An explosion was heard in Kharkiv, likely outside the city limits. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 photo messages indicate continued RF pressure in Kharkiv direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Popov Yar, Donetsk Oblast: TASS reports a group of Ukrainian servicemen surrendered. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • South-Donetsk Direction: Colonelcassad publishes video claiming successful destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit by 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade. TASS video claims RF Su-25 attack aircraft struck a UAF stronghold. MoD Russia video reports a Strela-10 air defense system crew wiped out a Yupiter drone. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast: ASTRA, RBC-Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 report a direct RF KAB strike on a residential building, resulting in confirmed death of a 10-year-old child and 7 injured. New information reports 12 injured after aviation strikes on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns report Kramatorsk Military Administration head Philashkin called on residents to urgently evacuate due to constant shelling. Военкор Котенок and Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) report Kramatorsk authorities are calling on residents to leave due to constant shelling and the approaching RF forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sloviansk, Donetsk Oblast: Олексій Білошицький reports Russian attack on Sloviansk. Paramedics from the "Predator" brigade assisted an 81-year-old woman. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk Oblast: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade drone operators created a "kill zone," destroying multiple enemy vehicles and personnel with FPV drones. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video of 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade using FPV drones to destroy two pieces of RF mechanized equipment during an attempted assault. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes a video showing Ukrainian drone operators (427th Separate Unmanned Systems Regiment "Rarog") using "fireball" bombs to destroy houses and premises used by the enemy. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (DeepState) reports RF advanced near Voskresenka, Dyliiivka, Karlivka, and Leonidiivka. DPR Head Pushilin comments on water shortages in Donetsk, stating "people and equipment are not enough." Videos from ASTRA show makeshift water collection in Donetsk (Kirovsky District) and dire conditions at an animal shelter due to lack of water. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast: RBC-Ukraine provides photo/video on RF drone and KAB attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Belgorod Oblast (RF): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video claiming HIMARS strikes on an RF S-300 air defense battery, a "Nebo-M" radar, and a 5H66M "Big Bird" radar. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) TASS reports three injured, including two minors, in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF strike. ASTRA also reports three injured. "Два майора" publishes a video of an aerial attack on a convoy of vehicles. Два майора photo messages indicate damage in Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Velyka Novosilka - Shevchenko: Colonelcassad publishes photo message indicating RF advances near Leontovychi, Udachne and Shevchenko. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnolimanskoye Direction: Z комитет + карта СВО publishes military map overlays of Krasnolimanskoye direction, including Kolodezi, as of 23 JUL 25. This indicates continued RF focus and potential advances in this sector. Colonelcassad also publishes a tactical map for the Krasnolimanskoye direction, reinforcing this assessment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar: Colonelcassad provides video footage claiming the destruction of a UAF UAV command post. Операция Z publishes aerial reconnaissance footage of a rural area, indicating military activity, explosions, and damaged buildings. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnoarmeysk direction: MoD Russia video claims destruction of a UAF UAV control post. TASS reports RF forces are forming a wide encirclement of Krasnoarmeysk in DNR after liberating Novotoretske. Воин DV reports RF forces active, claiming to disable Starlink communications for 25th Airborne Brigade. Басурин о главном and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publish videos claiming Russian reconnaissance and DRG activity. MoD Russia publishes video claiming TOS-1A fire damage on a UAF stronghold. Военкор Котенок provides video message indicating ongoing operations on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction (left flank). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Alexandrovgrad: Воин DV publishes drone footage claiming destruction of armored vehicles and personnel by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 5th Guards Tank Brigade. DeepState reports RF advanced near Aleksandrovgrad. DeepState confirms RF advances near Oleksandrovgrad, Komar, Voskresenka, Dyliivka, Torske, Karpivka, and Leonidivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Nikolaevka, DNR: Colonelcassad claims elements of the 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade have taken Nikolayevka in DNR. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Novotoretske, DNR: TASS, MoD Russia, Операция Z, and Kotsnews all claim RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske. TASS reports RF forces are now fighting for Fedorovka in DNR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Torskoye: Оперативний ЗСУ publishes drone video claiming to show a "military crime" by RF forces targeting a civilian on a bicycle. DeepState publishes video alleging RF forces shot a local resident on a bicycle. RF sources now claim Russian assault units have dislodged Ukrainian forces from Torske (DNR) and positions in the Serebryansky forestry. DeepState reports RF advanced near Torske. TASS reports Russian servicemen repelled three UAF attacks near Torske in DNR, occupying new positions in the eastern part of the village. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Orlivka, Sumy Oblast: Colonelcassad claims use of "Harpy" drones by RF UAV units to destroy temporary deployment points and vehicles of the UAF 104th Territorial Defense Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pokrovsk (Donetsk Oblast): Рыбарь channel publishes a photo and video indicating "Russian infantry in Pokrovsk." Воин DV publishes video claiming to show drone footage of an AFU armored vehicle being engaged by AIRNOMADS. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны publish video claiming fierce battles. RBC-Ukraine reports on the ongoing "cleanup" in Pokrovsk following a DRG breakthrough. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video of "WORMBUSTERS 414th UAV Brigade "Birds of Madyar" destroying Russian occupiers on motorbikes. RBC-Ukraine video with expert assessment confirms Pokrovsk may become the epicenter of large battles in the next 60 days. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages depicting damage in Pokrovsk, labeled "Pokrovsk today," corroborating reports of intense activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast, Izium: Colonelcassad publishes video showing residents of Izium visually monitoring a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike on a Ukrainian "occupation formation" object. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast, Oskil: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes drone footage showing the Khartia brigade's engagement against enemy personnel and a fuel depot. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kamyansk: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Defense Forces have withdrawn to the flanks and are holding Kamyansk under fire control. Voenkor Kotenok publishes photo message on the Zaporizhzhia direction (Kamensky section), implying continued RF focus on this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Konstantinovka Direction: Z комитет + карта СВО publishes a tactical map indicating RF advances and control zones as of 22 JUL 25. New Z комитет + карта СВО photo message indicates current focus on Poltavka, likely related to a settlement or tactical objective. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Komar: TASS publishes video claiming RF stormtroopers "liberated" the village of Komar in DNR. DeepState reports RF advanced near Komar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novoselivka: Colonelcassad publishes video claiming destruction of UAF 118th Separate Mechanized Brigade equipment in Novoselivka area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pankovka: Народная милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of a UAF D-30 howitzer near Pankovka. Narodnaya militsiya DNR publishes video of destruction of a D-30 howitzer, claiming it was near Oktyabrsky. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kupyansk Direction: Z комитет + карта СВО publishes tactical map data for Kupyansk. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a tactical map with text indicating "successes near Kupyansk." Привид Хортиці shares video of night drone hunts by 15th Brigade NGU "Kara-Dag" in Kupyansk direction. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports on "Kupyansk offensive" claiming 'Groza' is massively burning equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Direction (Rybary Map): Rybary maps provide a current tactical situation update for the Zaporizhzhia direction as of July 23, 2025, detailing territorial control, combat zones, and points of engagement. This indicates ongoing, albeit possibly less intense, ground activity in this sector. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs on Zaporizhzhia. RBC-Ukraine confirms KAB launches on Zaporizhzhia. UAV threat reported for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Air raid alert lifted for Zaporizhzhia Oblast at 2044Z. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has issued an alert. New UAVs reported south of Zaporizhzhia, heading north. Air Defense confirmed active in Zaporizhzhia. Explosions heard. Mykolaiv Vanek reports successful interception of UAVs on Zaporizhzhia. Four new UAVs reported heading toward/through Zaporizhzhia. One Shahed UAV remains under Zaphorizhzhia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Central Ukraine: Missile group (up to 10) towards Myrhorod district, then passing Poltava towards Kremenchuk. New missile group from Sumy Oblast also moved towards Poltava Oblast. Another group from Cherkasy Oblast diverted, heading westward into Vinnytsia Oblast. Kryvyi Rih reports "situation controlled." TASS claims RF forces used FABs against UAF reserve positions in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovets Oblast. New threat of strike UAVs for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi districts). UAV reported on Poltava Oblast, heading southwest. Threat of enemy strike UAVs in Zolotoniskyi and Cherkaskyi districts of Cherkasy Oblast. One fatality in Vinnytsia from 16 July strike. Explosions in Kropyvnytskyi and Kryvyi Rih amid ballistic missile threat. Kirovohrad Oblast attacked by ballistic missiles. Nikopol district attacked by artillery, MLRS "Grad," and FPV drones. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih. Missile danger for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi district) and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of aviation munitions use in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Чернігівська, Полтавська області - ракетна небезпека! (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports over two dozen attacks in Nikopol district throughout the day. RBC-Україна reports an infrastructure object damaged due to a drone hit. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports 8 enemy UAVs were shot down overnight. Operatyvnyi ZSU publishes multiple photo messages showing consequences of enemy strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports 10 school buses dispatched to communities. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports enemy activity in Nikopol district, including artillery, FPV drones, and munitions dropped from UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poltava Oblast: Enemy UAVs from Sumy Oblast are entering northeastern Poltava Oblast, heading southwest. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports threat lifted for Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts. New UAVs reported in northern and eastern parts of Poltava Oblast, moving southwest. Three Shahed UAVs confirmed inbound towards Cherkasy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Western Ukraine: Cruise missiles confirmed from Vinnytsia Oblast to Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Main group entered Ternopil Oblast, Chernivtsi Oblast (AD engaging, 4 fatalities confirmed), and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast (explosions, damage, casualties). Kinzhal hypersonic missile launched from MiG-31K tracked towards Starokostiantyniv, then Ternopil/Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts, with confirmed explosions and casualties. Three Shahed UAVs approaching Ivano-Frankivsk reported intercepted. Damage to kindergarten and university in Lviv. Damaged residential buildings (20 private homes) in Kamianets-Podilskyi district, Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports a conflict occurred between TCC personnel and local residents. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volyn Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports a French Mirage 2000 fighter jet crashed due to technical malfunction; pilot ejected successfully. Alex Parker Returns reports an F-16 was shot down in Rivne Oblast; pilot ejected, a conflicting claim. Colonelcassad publishes photo messages regarding the French Mirage 2000 crash, claiming it's the first loss over Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Romania: RBC-Ukraine reports Romania is forming a voluntary contract army. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Southern Ukraine: New Shahed UAVs detected in Black Sea, heading towards Pivdenne/Koblevo (8 inbound). RF strike on Vasylivskyi district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulted in 2 fatalities, 1 wounded. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reports 14 UAVs shot down. Missile threat active for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF 44th Artillery Brigade successfully targeted an RF 2A65 Msta-B. Colonelcassad claims missile strike on Ukrainian gas platform in Black Sea. TASS reports parts of a downed UAF UAV fell on a kindergarten and Ministry of Emergency Situations in Berdyansk. Launches of KABs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast confirmed. UAV threat for Kherson, Zaporizhzhia (Nikopolskyi district), and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts from the south. 4 new Shahed UAVs from Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Pavlohrad. New groups of Shahed UAVs from Black Sea heading towards Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts. Odesa Oblast AD engaged 10 Shahed UAVs over Black Sea; 12 Shahed UAVs confirmed approaching Odesa from the sea. Explosions heard in Odesa. CONFIRMED CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE IN ODESA DUE TO RF UAV ATTACK. One fatality in Odesa due to the attack. Mykolaiv Vanek reports "minus" for Shaheds on Ochakiv, indicating successful AD engagement. RF Milblogger НгП раZVедка publishes video claiming "Let's cheer up Khadzhibeyivka" which indicates potential RF targeting of the Khadzhibeyivskyi district of Odesa. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Mykolaiv Vanek reports 4 Shahed UAVs flying from Rozdolna towards Odesa. Mykolaiv Vanek reports 13 Shahed UAVs impacting Odesa were intercepted. New reports indicate 6 Shahed UAVs are approaching Odesa from the sea in triplets. Mykolaiv Vanek reports these 6 Shahed UAVs on Odesa have been successfully intercepted ("minus"). Two Shahed UAVs detected near Velyka Korenykha, Mykolaiv. Explosions heard in Mykolaiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson Oblast: Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 4 Russian army assaults. TASS reports on Russian Group "Dnepr" UAV calculation with FPV drones destroying a Ukrainian D-20 howitzer. RBC-Ukraine reports RF drone attack injured two children. ASTRA reports two fatalities and two wounded due to RF attack on civilian vehicle. SBU reported заочно suspicion to five Russian generals who commanded shelling of the right bank of Kherson Oblast. Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 provides tactical analysis with photo messages regarding operations in Kherson direction. "Два майора" publishes a video of a military-style truck with a mounted rocket launcher in Kherson Oblast, possibly RF military equipment or a response to an incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Ballistic missile threat alert issued. RF attacked Polohivskyi district. Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports Russian aviation conducted over 8 airstrikes on enemy positions in the Orikhiv sector. РБК-Україна reports an anti-drone tunnel has been built on an important frontline highway. Air raid alert lifted for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. MoD Russia video shows a D-30 howitzer crew eliminating enemy manpower in Zaporizhzhia region, confirming continued RF artillery activity. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issued an alert. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: ASTRA publishes multiple photo messages and video showing firefighters extinguishing a blaze in Mykolaiv Oblast following RF drone and artillery attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports power outages in some districts of Mykolaiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Gas Facilities (Black Sea): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Temporary flight restrictions at Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky airports have been lifted. Restrictions also lifted at Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, and Kaluga airports. Sochi airport has temporary flight restrictions but has now been lifted. RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight. Falling UAV debris on railway station in Rostov Oblast delayed over 50 passenger trains. Fire at Kamianolomni railway station, Rostov Oblast confirmed. Belgorod governor reports 2 civilian injuries from UAF UAV attack. Flooding reported in Moscow streets. Fires reported in Rostov and Moscow oblasts after UAV hits. TASS reports a Moldovan national detained in Ryazan confessed to transmitting data on RF Armed Forces to Kyiv. TASS reports a man detained in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD facilities. TASS reports RF MoD claims 14 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kaluga, Bryansk, Tula, and Oryol Oblasts. Kotsnews reports an explosion and drone activity in Sochi and Sirius (Krasnodar Krai). RF MoD claims 21 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Krasnodar Krai, and the Black and Azov Seas in over 3 hours. Colonelcassad publishes images of a "Yolka" kinetic UAV, implying RF drone development or showcasing new capabilities. Kotsnews reports AD continues to shoot down targets over the sea near Sochi. НгП раZVедка warns residents of Black Sea coast, major North Caucasus cities to cancel night walks due to ongoing threats. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports enemy attacks on Sochi, Caucasus, Crimea, and Kuban. Kotsnews publishes video of a drone being shot down on approach to Sochi. Multiple Ukrainian sources report explosions and a confirmed oil depot strike near Sochi (Krasnodar Krai). "Военкоры Русской Весны" (Операция Z) reports enemy attacked an oil depot in Sochi and provides multiple video/photo messages confirming significant fire/explosion, illuminated buildings, and emergency lights, suggesting a successful strike. TASS reports one fatality and one injury from UAV debris in Adler District, Sochi. ASTRA reports one fatality and one injury in Krasnodar Krai from UAV attack. Head of Sirius Federal Territory (Krasnodar Krai) confirms a hit on an oil depot on Tavricheskaya Street, advising residents to avoid the area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov-on-Don: TASS reports a UAV attack was repelled in Rostov-on-Don, Millerovo, Donetsk (Rostov Oblast), and Azov district. Оперативний ЗСУ and ASTRA report UAV attacks on Novocherkassk railway station and Novocherkassk GRES. ASTRA confirms a railway crossing closure and traffic jam in Novocherkassk. TASS reports three people injured in Novocherkassk due to UAV attack. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno publishes imagery and information about alleged damage to enemy logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tula Oblast: TASS reports RF air defense destroyed three Ukrainian UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Samara Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports a drone attack on Samara Oblast, RF. ASTRA provides video confirming the Novosuybyshevsk oil refinery fire after a UAV attack. MoD Russia video reports servicemen of the Central MD's special operations formation practiced sabotage actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Transbaikalia: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on large wildfires in Transbaikalia, quoting Governor Osipov claiming "arsonists working for Ukrainians" as the cause, indicating a new RF narrative attributing internal disasters to Ukrainian sabotage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Bryansk Oblast: Брянская область. Губернатор reports "nine more" Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed overnight. AV БогомаZ reports that civilians were injured as a result of "treacherous strikes by Ukronazis." Two Mayors reports information from Bryansk Oblast governor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow: TASS reports the death of Irina Podnosova, the Chairman of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation. TASS reports Putin expressed condolences. Severe urban flooding. News of new COVID-19 variant "Stratus" spreading. "Новости Москвы" reports 150,000 rubles is now considered a basic minimum income for living in Moscow, indicating economic challenges. "Новости Москвы" also publishes a message about psychological impact of smartphones on adolescents, possibly a domestic social narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports a Moscow court sentenced Sukhrob Khaidarov to 20 years in prison for robbery and murder in 2011. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Crimea: Colonelcassad reports Sevastopol air raid alarm. Два майора reports attack on Crimea amidst Istanbul talks. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports "DVIZHUKHA" in Crimea. TASS reports six UAVs destroyed over Sevastopol. RF sources (ASTRA, Colonelcassad) confirm six UAVs shot down near annexed Sevastopol: 3 over Kacha field, 3 over sea. Air raid alert in Sevastopol has been lifted. MoD Russia claims 16 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over the Black Sea and Crimea. Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports Ukraine is attacking Crimea with drones "against the backdrop of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine." Sevastopol Governor reports information regarding the UAV attack on Sevastopol, stating there are no casualties or damage to infrastructure. "Два майора" reports a second wave of enemy UAV attack on Crimea is being reflected. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • FSB Activity: FSB reports it thwarted activities of three suspects aiding Ukrainian special services. FSB detained an SBU agent in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast who set up a cache with UAV parts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes video of FSB operations in DNR and Yaroslavl Oblast. Gleb Nikitin reports opening of two new fire stations and an emergency rescue squad in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, indicating continued investment in civilian emergency response infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports investigation requests заочно arrest of Vasily Kiryushchenko, RDK leader and son of "My Beautiful Nanny" series director. TASS reports a leader of the RDK (Russian Volunteer Corps) has been put on an international wanted list. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Media Raids: Police and OMON conducted searches at "Baza" publication's editorial office. TASS reports the chief editor of Telegram channel Baza, Gleb Trifonov, was arrested. Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 confirms Baza editor arrested until September 20. TASS and ASTRA confirm arrest of Baza producer Tatiana Lukyanova until September 20 on bribery charges. TASS reports the amount of bribes in the Baza editor's case does not exceed 150,000 rubles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Law on Extremist Materials: TASS reports State Duma adopted law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. Putin discussed this law with Volodin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • POW Return: TASS reports that two RF servicemen in need of medical attention have been returned from Ukrainian-controlled territory. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video features a Russian marine complaining about his new life after losing a leg. Several RF milbloggers (Операция Z, Colonelcassad, Два майора, Военкор Котенок, Рыбарь) are publishing videos claiming the return of Russian servicemen from Ukrainian captivity, showcasing morale-boosting scenes of soldiers waving flags and making phone calls. Estimates from these sources range up to 250 personnel. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes video of a Russian soldier who lost a leg, with caption "Here, morons!", likely used for demoralization or as propaganda against RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports 250 on 250 exchange. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Ukrainian sources report the liquidation of an experienced RF EW unit commander, Ragimov Kerim Sabir-ogly, known as "Koks" and author of a Z-channel, during his vacation in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Financial Sector: TASS reports the Central Bank is considering lowering the key interest rate. TASS reports the digital ruble and universal QR code will be widely implemented. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF State Duma: ASTRA reports State Duma Deputy Mikhail Tarasenko voted 11 times on the day of his death, suggesting potential proxy voting. TASS reports Putin signed a law where forced labor becomes a separate type of punishment. TASS photo messages confirm Putin has granted Belarusian citizens permanently residing in Russia the right to participate in local elections. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Drone Production: TASS reports that Russian fiber-optic FPV drone production has increased to "tens of thousands per month," 750 km from the Ukrainian border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kursk Oblast: TASS reports that Kurskers whose homes were affected by Ukrainian Armed Forces attacks after August 6, 2024, will receive regional payments of 195,000 rubles. Colonelcassad publishes a video featuring a civilian woman, Svetlana Mukhanova (61), claiming to be a victim of alleged UAF crimes in Kazachya Loknya, Kursk Oblast, describing a shooting incident with 3 fatalities. This is likely RF information operation to justify actions in border areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poland (Historical Narrative): TASS publishes a photo message from the RF MoD project "Not to enslave, but to restore," claiming the Red Army liberated Poland in 1945 and supported its restoration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF Information Operation)
• Sumy Oblast: RF conducted a strike on Sumy community's Kovpakivskyi district. Two explosions heard, likely from KABs, impacting residential area and causing damage to apartment building. Three injured, now increased to 12. Emergency services on site. 5 multi-story buildings, a shopping center, and 18 cars damaged. Threat of aviation munitions for Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. Colonelcassad reports "Anvar" unit operating in the border areas of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports launches of guided aerial bombs. UAV threat reported for Chernihiv Oblast. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in northern Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. UAV reported in western Sumy Oblast, heading south. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy Direction: "Два майора" publishes FPV drone footage claiming to target a UAF soldier. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes photo messages showing a tactical map for the Sumy direction. Colonelcassad publishes a drone video of the Sumy direction, showing military vehicles. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the 210th Separate Assault Regiment used drones to destroy a well-hidden dugout. Podolnyy ZOV edition publishes video claiming FPV drone operators of "Ussuriysk formation" destroy dozens of AFU equipment daily in Sumy Oblast, disrupting logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Varachino, Sumy Oblast: Операция Z and "Воин DV" claim Russian army liberated Varachino. Рыбарь reports "Severians" liberated the village of Varachino. TASS reports UAF lost units of two elite brigades and an assault regiment. MoD Russia claims units of Sever Group of Forces liberated Varachino. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Istanbul Negotiations: RBC-Ukraine reports Zelenskyy will insist on an immediate ceasefire. Ukrainian delegation has arrived. TASS reports RF delegation has arrived. TASS reports Turkish Foreign Minister, Intelligence Chief, and Chief of General Staff will attend. RBC-Ukraine video reports Head of Ukrainian delegation Umierov arrived. TASS, Dnevnik Десантника🇷🇺, and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm bilateral meeting between heads of RF and UA delegations (Medinsky and Umerov) in Ciragan Palace. RBC-Ukraine and Оперативний ЗСУ later state that the "tete-a-tete" meeting between Umerov and Medinsky did not occur. Colonelcassad indicates the one-on-one meeting took place as before, with a delegation meeting to follow on agreed issues. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Conflicting reports on specific meeting format) TASS reports that full delegation talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul have begun. Zelenskyy has outlined negotiation topics. RBC-Ukraine, TASS, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Басурин о главном, STERNENKO, Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) all report that negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have begun in Istanbul. STERNENKO and Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) provide video evidence of the formal setting and participants. TASS reports that the negotiations are being held in a closed-door session. Turkey's Foreign Minister Fidan stated the goal of the negotiations is the earliest possible end to the conflict and that Turkey has the necessary infrastructure to monitor a ceasefire. Zelenskyy stated that Russia and Ukraine are actively working on the next phase of prisoner exchanges. TASS, RBC-Ukraine, Alex Parker Returns, Оперативний ЗСУ, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirm that the Istanbul negotiations have concluded. TASS reports negotiations were held in Russian and an agreement was reached on exchanges of both military and civilian personnel. TASS reports decision on a fourth round of talks will be made after current agreements are implemented. RF has proposed that Ukraine agree to "short humanitarian pauses" along the frontline for the evacuation of wounded and dead personnel. RF is proposing the formation of two online working groups to save time and money. Medinsky claims Russia has returned over 7,000 Ukrainian bodies and received a "small number" of their own. Russia is proposing to exchange Ukrainian military personnel and other categories of persons for residents of Kursk Oblast. RF also raised the issue of returning Russian children who remain in Ukraine or were evacuated to the EU. Umerov has indicated that Ukraine has proposed a meeting of leaders (Zelenskyy and Putin) with the participation of Erdogan and Trump by the end of August. Medinsky states that positions of Russia and Ukraine on memorandums are "quite far from each other." Medinsky states that a meeting of leaders should only occur after an agreement on settlement is discussed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Information:
    • RF confirmed a POW exchange at the border with Belarus, involving the return of a group of Russian servicemen. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Ukraine confirmed the 9th stage of prisoner exchange, with over 1000 Ukrainian defenders returned from captivity. These include seriously ill and wounded personnel, and representatives from various branches (Air Assault Forces, Naval Forces, Territorial Defense Forces, Border Guard Service, National Guard, National Police). Zelenskyy / Official and Оперативний ЗСУ publish videos showing the homecoming of Ukrainian POWs, wrapped in flags, visibly emotional, with civilian greetings. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими confirms return of heavily ill and wounded Ukrainian defenders under Istanbul agreements, with video. SBU released exclusive video of the July 23 prisoner exchange. Budanov confirms the number of released prisoners under "Istanbul-2" agreements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports 250 on 250 exchange. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Medinsky claims that the majority of children on Ukraine's list were never in Russia, and 50 names were adults, not children. This is a direct counter-narrative to Ukrainian claims of forced deportations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS challenges Medinsky's claim about children, calling it "shameless lies." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Medinsky reiterates RF proposal for "short humanitarian pauses" along the frontline to collect wounded and dead. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Umerov states that documents discussed in Istanbul should not be called memorandums, indicating that Ukraine views the current agreements as less formal or binding than Russia might suggest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Umerov states Ukraine is always ready for ceasefire talks, but it "does not depend on us," implying Russia is the barrier. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • RF delegation will leave Istanbul tomorrow morning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • TASS reports that exchanged Ukrainian soldiers are being sent to penal battalions and face criminal charges for desertion, citing Russian security forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF Propaganda/Claim) TASS reports Slutsky (RF) expressed hope for a positive response from Kyiv on proposals for working groups on political, humanitarian, and military issues. MoD Russia "Top News Today" reiterates humanitarian efforts as a positive outcome of Istanbul talks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports that negotiations lasted for 30 minutes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Culture (DNR): Colonelcassad publishes video on "Culture of DNR", likely propaganda to normalize life in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Ukraine General: Night operations provide low visibility, favoring RF UAV and missile saturation tactics. Kharkiv Oblast expects worsening weather (heavy rains, thunderstorms). Crane collapse in Kyiv due to strong winds/storm. Severe flooding in Odesa due to heavy rain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Heavy rainfall and flooding in Moscow. Mudslide in Kabardino-Balkaria. Drought impacting Donbas, leading to water shortages. Hurricane (storm) noticed by residents of Belosaraiskaya Kosa, indicating a weather event in the Sea of Azov coastal area. Downpour with hail hit DNR, especially Makeevka. Mudslide in Kabardino-Balkaria and North Ossetia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk (Kirovsky District): Reports and video from local sources (ASTRA) indicate water shortages, with civilians resorting to rainwater collection and dire conditions at animal shelters. This suggests sustained disruption of critical services due to conflict. Pushilin comments that "people and equipment are not enough" to address water shortages in DNR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Transbaikalia: Large-scale forest fires reported, with RF attributing them to "arsonists working for Ukrainians," indicating an attempt to externalize domestic issues and justify them as Ukrainian sabotage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF:
  • Air Defense (AD): Fully engaged nationwide against multi-vector RF aerial assault. President Zelenskyy reports UAF AD destroyed over 20 missiles and the "overwhelming majority" of drones (344 of 623 total aerial targets). Germany to provide 5 Patriot systems and ammunition, though delays expected until Spring 2026. Czechia will help strengthen AD for drone combat. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України video shows drone operators of the 77th Separate Airmobile Brigade destroying Starlinks, antennas, equipment, dugouts, and personnel on the Lyman direction. STERNENKO provides video of Lancet destruction. Оперативний ЗСУ provides video of UAF targeting and mine laying operations. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes video showcasing the Ukrainian "Bulava" drone, presented as a counter to the Russian "Lancet" drone, demonstrating its capabilities against military equipment. This indicates continued UAF innovation in drone warfare. Successful interceptions of Shahed UAVs on Odesa and Zaporizhzhia reported by Mykolaiv Vanek, with active AD in Zaporizhzhia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Services: DSNS are actively engaged across multiple oblasts for rescue, firefighting, and damage assessment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Control Measures: Nationwide air raid alerts lifted, localized drone alerts persist. Public warnings for shelter ongoing. Ukraine plans to open four new embassies. Zelenskyy states new negotiations with Russia planned for Wednesday in Istanbul. Zelenskyy signed a decree on immediate audit of state expenditures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Security Services: SBU and OGP conducting special operations to " neutralize Russian influence on NABU." The controversial NABU/SAP law continues to be a point of contention, with international partners expressing concern and Zelenskyy promising a new bill to strengthen anti-corruption institutions. ASTRA reports Zelenskyy will submit presidential bill to Rada to preserve independence of anti-corruption bodies. RBC-Ukraine reports Rada will urgently convene next week over the new NABU/SAP law. RBC-Ukraine reports Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko states that "people had the right to protest, but the Russians were waiting for this." Zelenskyy met with law enforcement agencies (SBU, NABU, SAP, MIA, NACP, SBI, Prosecutor General) emphasizing teamwork and accountability, indicating a proactive approach to addressing internal issues and maintaining stability. SBU released exclusive video of the POW exchange, highlighting their role. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Foreign Volunteers: 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" claims 2,000 Colombians fighting in its ranks. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video shows Belarusian volunteers of the Kalinouski Regiment destroying an enemy tank in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Resource Requirements: Urgent and sustained supply of AD systems (especially Patriot), EW systems, drones, and artillery ammunition. Significant funding gaps persist. Spiegel reports that Patriot systems for Ukraine are delayed until Spring 2026. Pentagon and U.S. State Department have approved two military aid packages to Ukraine totaling $322 million. Pentagon confirms sale of Bradley repair equipment and HAWK Phase III SAMs to Ukraine totaling $322 million. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Training: UAF continues rigorous training for tank crews, sergeants, and young officers (71st Separate Jaeger Brigade). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Losses: General Staff of UAF provides estimated total combat losses for RF. Serhiy Syrskyi states that at least 80,000 Russian military personnel have been killed or wounded during the Kursk operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Domestic Production: Domestic 155-mm Bohdana-BG howitzers have entered service. Ukraine has signed 4 contracts for drone interceptor production totaling over 3 billion UAH. RBC-Ukraine reports the government has approved a plan to implement the NSDC decision on a moratorium on business inspections, excluding high-risk industries, and is launching a grant competition for scaling up the production of explosive materials in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Robot Medevac: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes a video demonstrating the 5th Separate Assault Kyiv Brigade using a ground robot for medical evacuation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security Event: RBC-Ukraine reports the commander of the National Police assault brigade "Lyut" (Rage), Maksym Kazban, died in a traffic accident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatsia Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes video claiming SBU head stated "half of National Guard laid down arms, other half wanted to go to Kyiv" after searches of NGU commander. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF Propaganda) Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims a Ukrainian border guard fled to Hungary, abandoning weapon at post. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF Propaganda, but potential indicator of personnel issues)
  • Northern Command Reassignment: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that leadership of defense in Northern Ukraine has been transferred to Operational Command "West," commanded by Brigadier General Volodymyr Shvedyuk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Corruption Audit: Zelenskyy signed a decree about an immediate audit of state expenditures. RBC-Ukraine provides photo message of new Zelenskyy decree text. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Third Separate Assault Brigade: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video footage showing soldiers of the Third Separate Assault Brigade under fire, assessing damages and casualties, indicating active engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cultural Resilience: RBC-Ukraine reports that fencer Vlada Kharkova won the World Championship 2025, an event that can serve as a morale boost for the nation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Negotiation Position: Umerov has stated that Ukraine is prepared for a ceasefire and a meeting of leaders. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • POW Exchange: Zelenskyy confirms the 9th stage of prisoner exchange, with over 1000 Ukrainian defenders returned, including seriously ill and wounded. Coordination Headquarters for POW issues confirms the large exchange, emphasizing the return of defenders from various branches, including the last defender of Snake Island. Olexiy Biloshitsky of Ukrainian National Police and Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provide photo/video confirmation of the successful 9th prisoner exchange. Оперативний ЗСУ publishes a video of a returned Ukrainian POW expressing his defiant patriotism, refusing to serve Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Budanov confirms the number of prisoners released under "Istanbul-2" agreements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RUF:
  • Deep Operations (UAV/Missile/Aviation Munitions): RF maintains a high capability for widespread, high-volume, multi-vector aerial assault (Tu-95MS strategic bombers, Kinzhal from MiG-31K, massed Shahed drones). First confirmed use of FAB-3000 M-54 guided bomb in Kharkiv. Continued use of KABs against Sumy, Dobropillia, and Kramatorsk. RF is targeting Ukrainian internal security infrastructure (police departments) in Kharkiv. MoD Russia video showcases UAVs leaving no chances to enemy troops. WarGonzo claims Iskander strikes reduced personnel of GUR (Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence) and mercenaries. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF Propaganda, unverified claim). RF tactical aviation activity reported in northeast Ukraine, indicating potential for continued air strikes. RF is actively targeting Khadzhibeyivka in Odesa Oblast with UAVs. RF MoD claims to have shot down 21 Ukrainian UAVs over Krasnodar Krai, and the Black and Azov Seas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tactical Drone Capabilities: RF continues effective tactical integration of FPV drones for precision engagements against artillery, armored vehicles, and personnel. Reported increase in fiber-optic FPV drone production to "tens of thousands per month." Development of new anti-drone systems from Rostec and "Shadow" frequency detectors. MoD Russia publishes video showing FPV drone operators of the "West" grouping destroying a Ukrainian "Akatsiya" self-propelled howitzer in Kharkiv Oblast. Kadyrov_95 video demonstrates Akhmat special forces FPV drone strike on a UAF dugout. Narodnaya militsiya DNR video of "Shadow" detector testing confirms RF deployment of advanced drone detection equipment. Podolnyy ZOV edition claims one FPV drone operator achieved 30th "Baba Yaga" drone kill. Video from Два майора indicates RF units are capturing Western-supplied armored vehicles, using them for propaganda. A video from Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shows two RF soldiers appealing for donations for drones and Starlink, specifically for the 7th Airborne Division in the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating potential resource shortfalls at the tactical level despite overall production claims. Оперативний ЗСУ publishes drone footage showing the apparent engagement and destruction of enemy personnel, indicating continued RF ground activity and UAF counter-engagement. Colonelcassad shares photos of a "Yolka" kinetic UAV, likely a new RF drone design or concept, demonstrating continued RF innovation in drone warfare. Colonelcassad posts video of "Rubicon" air defense combat groups, showcasing surveillance footage from multiple drone types (SHARK-M, LELEKA-100, RAEFLY VTOL, FLYEYE), suggesting advanced ISR capabilities and active counter-UAS operations by RF. Воин DV publishes a video of a "Shadow" detector that covers 100 MHz to 10 GHz, indicating a wide frequency detection capability for drones. RF milblogger НгП раZVедка warns against filming air defense activity, indicating a concern about OPSEC. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare: RF continues aggressive information operations, exploiting internal Ukrainian issues (NABU/SAP protests, mobilization tensions), leveraging foreign political figures, and controlling its domestic information space. "Maidan" narrative pushed regarding protests. Alex Parker Returns expresses belief that new RF laws are preparing for a "grand traitorous deal" to "preemptively curb discontent" from concessions to Ukrainians, which will be declared a "victory". (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Analyst's assessment of RF intent) TASS reports that Obama instructed intelligence to include claims of Trump's support for the Russian Federation in the 2017 report, citing Fox News. Воин DV publishes video asking "Why do anti-corruption rallies in Ukraine gather tens of thousands, but the demands of families of fallen soldiers remain voiceless?", indicating a narrative focused on internal Ukrainian discontent and perceived inequalities. Рыбарь posts a video titled "Our Black Russians" ("Наши чернорусы"), which depicts Black women in what appears to be a student dormitory. This is a subtle attempt to normalize or highlight ethnic diversity within Russia, potentially aimed at counteracting Western narratives about Russian isolation or internal issues. The relevance to military operations is indirect, aiming to shape the information environment. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Colonelcassad posts video of "Rubicon" combat groups for air defense, showcasing drone footage, including 'FLYEYE' and 'SHARK-M' drones, and potential target identification. This is likely a propaganda piece intended to highlight RF counter-UAS capabilities and reconnaissance efforts. Alex Parker Returns publishes a video about an alleged assault by Uzbek citizens in Moscow Oblast against a deaf-mute man, framing it to stoke anti-migrant sentiment and internal discontent in Russia, referencing "Pypa" (a derogatory term for Putin) and "unreplaceable specialists" (migrants). Alex Parker Returns also publishes photo messages about a "Sberbank Islamic branch" refusing service to a Muscovite, implying creeping Islamization or societal changes in Russia, again with a jab at Putin ("Pypa, results"). "Два майора" responds to the Alex Parker Returns video on migrants, dismissing it as "populist" and countering it with official Russian investigative committee statistics on crimes, aiming to control internal narratives. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on Microsoft accusing Chinese hackers of breaching a US nuclear agency, indicating continued global cyber activity and its potential impact on strategic stability, though not directly tied to Ukraine. RF milbloggers "Рыбарь", "Kotsnews", and "Старше Эдды" are actively disseminating information about the Istanbul negotiations, likely to shape domestic and international narratives. "Операция Z" is disseminating a video featuring Tulsi Gabbard (former US Presidential candidate) claiming Obama could be accused of treason for allegedly instructing intelligence to include claims of Trump's support for Russia in a 2017 report. This is a clear RF information operation aiming to sow discord in the US and undermine support for Ukraine. Colonelcassad publishes a photo of US Senators Blumenthal and Graham in Kyiv, likely as part of a narrative to frame US involvement negatively. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes multiple videos of protests in Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, and other cities, framing them as protests "against Zelenskyy and his new law to facilitate corruption," consistent with RF's "new Maidan" narrative. НгП раZVедка (Russian milblogger) expresses sympathy for Ukrainian forces "fighting for THIS," implying that Ukraine is not worth fighting for, a demoralizing narrative. TASS quotes Slutsky claiming Russia demonstrated humanism and a desire for diplomatic resolution in Istanbul, shaping the RF narrative for internal and international audiences. "Зона СВО" publishes a video of a fatigued RF soldier, likely intended to elicit sympathy and portray the 'human' cost of conflict for RF, while subtly reinforcing the idea of a soldier's sacrifice. Colonelcassad uses footage of Kyiv protests to reinforce the "Maidan" narrative. TASS reports on the Macrons' defamation lawsuit against Candace Owens, an indirect information operation aiming to discredit Western figures and spread disinformation. Рыбарь publishes a photo message "What Rybar Says," likely a commentary on current events, indicating continued information shaping. Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo message "Go Away, Nasty," which lacks direct military intelligence but appears to be part of ongoing information operations or commentary. Colonelcassad publishes a series of photos titled "Moments of the SMO. Frontline Daily Life," likely for propaganda purposes to humanize RF soldiers and show "normalcy" amidst conflict. RF Milblogger НгП раZVедка publishes a video suggesting an RF action in Khadzhibeyivka, aiming to demonstrate RF offensive capabilities. Операция Z shares White House press briefing footage regarding Trump and sanctions, likely to reinforce narratives about US internal political divisions impacting aid to Ukraine. TASS promotes a historical narrative from the RF MoD claiming the Red Army liberated and rebuilt Poland in 1945, likely to legitimize its current actions and shape historical perception. TASS photo messages show Medinsky with Ruttе, again reinforcing historical narratives, likely to influence international perceptions. TASS reports Donald Trump states Europe should have started paying the US for weapons for Ukraine three years ago, suggesting continued RF efforts to exploit perceived divisions or transactional approaches within the Western alliance regarding aid to Ukraine. TASS reports that Trump and his administration are "furious" about active coverage of the Epstein case, indicating a potential RF information operation to distract or discredit US political figures. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) TASS reports Rubio influenced Trump to take a tougher stance on Russia, Venezuela, Iran, and China, per Financial Times, indicating continued RF efforts to portray US political maneuvering. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports US Justice Department will create a special group to check Obama's alleged involvement in fabricating intelligence data on Russian interference in US elections, reinforcing RF narrative of US political division and alleged intelligence malfeasance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Maneuver Capability: RF forces conducted company-sized mechanized assaults northwest of Avdiivka, demonstrating improved coordination. Continued localized ground advances in Donetsk Oblast (Hrushevske, Novotoretske, Komar, Nikolaevka, Oleksandrovgrad, Dyliiivka, Karlivka, Leonidiivka, Torske) and Sumy Oblast (Varachino). Воин DV video shows destruction of a "Snatch" Land Rover armored vehicle. Colonelcassad photo message "Успехи под Купянском" indicates continued RF focus and potential advances in Kupyansk. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes video showing drone footage of possible RF reconnaissance in a fortified position, indicating ongoing tactical probing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Exercise: TASS publishes video of the Russian Navy conducting "July Storm" operational exercises, involving over 150 ships, 120 aircraft, 10 coastal missile systems, and 15,000 military personnel. Colonelcassad shares a video of an Iranian Navy helicopter warning a US Destroyer in the Oman Gulf. While not directly related to Ukraine, this highlights RF's broader geopolitical alignment and potential for escalating tensions with NATO, serving as an indirect information operation. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Diplomatic Activity: RF invited President of Egypt to Russian-Arab forum in October. TASS video shows Deputy Chief of General Staff of Russian Armed Forces Kostyukov arriving at Ciragan Palace for Istanbul negotiations. Colonelcassad confirms Kostyukov's arrival. TASS, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, Operativnyi ZSU confirm Medinsky-Umerov bilateral meeting in Istanbul, though RBC-Ukraine and Operativnyi ZSU later contradict the "tete-a-tete" aspect. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Басурин о главном confirms bilateral negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations have begun at Ciragan Palace in Istanbul. НгП раZVедка (Turkish sources) reports Medinsky and Umerov are holding a one-on-one meeting before the negotiations begin. Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad, and Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) all release videos showing various stages of the Istanbul negotiations, including a trilateral meeting with Turkey's Foreign Minister Fidan, and the full delegation talks. These are likely aimed at shaping the domestic and international perception of RF's diplomatic engagement. TASS, RBC-Ukraine, Alex Parker Returns, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Операция Z all confirm conclusion of Istanbul negotiations. TASS reports talks were in Russian, and agreements were reached on POW/civilian exchanges. Decision on future rounds pending implementation of agreements. Medinsky held a press conference after the talks, further solidifying the narrative of negotiations. Medinsky has proposed "short humanitarian pauses" on the front line for casualty evacuation and the formation of two online working groups for efficiency. Medinsky states that while some humanitarian agreements from the second round were fulfilled, others (specifically 101 points, including the return of Kursk Oblast residents) were not fully met. RF has formally requested the return of Russian children from Ukraine and EU countries. Medinsky has stated that the positions of Russia and Ukraine on key memorandums are "quite far from each other," tempering expectations for immediate comprehensive peace. Medinsky also states that a leader's meeting can only occur after an agreement on settlement is discussed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Information:
    • RF confirmed POW exchange, portraying it as a positive step for humanitarian cooperation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Medinsky claims "the majority of children from the Ukrainian list were never in Russia," and 50 names were adults, not children. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Medinsky reiterates RF's proposal for "short humanitarian pauses" along the frontline for casualty collection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Medinsky states that Russia is ready to exchange Ukrainian military personnel and other categories for residents of Kursk Oblast. This appears to be a new demand. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Medinsky confirms RF delegation will leave Istanbul tomorrow morning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports that negotiations lasted for 30 minutes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Dissension: Igor Strelkov comments on the RF "system" being "overwhelmed by a mass of 'bottomless mediocrities' in key positions," and states the system is "blind, deaf, and powerless" because it "devoured itself." This suggests growing internal criticism of military and governmental effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews makes a cynical comment that "TCC could fulfill the weekly plan in a couple of hours," likely a jab at the Ukrainian mobilization efforts, but also highlighting internal Russian perceptions of Ukrainian manpower issues. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF Information Operation/Opinion).
  • RF Ministry of Defense: MoD Russia provides video footage purporting to show a Ukrainian serviceman surrendering, likely for propaganda purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security: ASTRA reports the Interior Ministry has placed the widow of a soldier with the call sign "Goodwin," who was sent on a suicidal assault for criticizing Colonel Puzik, on a wanted list. This suggests internal disciplinary issues and attempts to suppress dissent within RF military families. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cyber Attacks: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on Microsoft accusing Chinese hackers of breaching a US nuclear agency, indicating a broader cyber threat landscape not directly related to the Ukraine conflict but relevant to global cybersecurity and potential state-sponsored activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Persistent Deep Strike Capacity: RF maintains high capability for widespread, multi-vector aerial assault using strategic bombers (Tu-95MS), hypersonic missiles (Kinzhal from MiG-31K), and massed Shahed drones. First confirmed use of FAB-3000 M-54. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF is demonstrating continued capacity for long-range UAV attacks, with strikes observed near Sochi and Krasnodar Krai, and the capacity to launch multiple UAVs over the Black and Azov Seas. New inbound Shahed UAVs towards Odesa and Kharkiv indicate sustained, high-volume drone attacks, alongside confirmed oil depot strike near Sochi. The successful UAF interceptions over Odesa and Zaporizhzhia indicate RF continues to employ Shahed UAVs in saturation attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Adaptive Precision Targeting: RF continues to adapt its targeting, evidenced by strikes on Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility, use of KABs, and targeting of Ukrainian internal security infrastructure (police departments) in Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF is also attempting to target military/civilian infrastructure in southern Ukraine (Khadzhibeyivka) and is now facing AD engagements over Sochi. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Enhanced Tactical Drone Integration: Increasingly sophisticated FPV drone capabilities for precision strikes (artillery, armored vehicles, personnel). Significant increase in fiber-optic FPV drone production (tens of thousands/month). Development and deployment of new counter-UAS systems. RF is developing or showcasing new drone designs like the "Yolka." RF "Rubicon" air defense combat groups are actively utilizing and showcasing multiple advanced drone types for ISR and potentially target identification, indicating sophisticated multi-drone operational integration. The "Shadow" detector's wide frequency range indicates enhanced EW/counter-UAS capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Limited Ground Maneuver and Infiltration: Capabilities for localized ground advances and deep infiltration by special groups, particularly observed in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts (e.g., Varachino, Novotoretske, Komar, Nikolaevka, Pokrovsk, Kupyansk), supported by heavy fire (TOS-1A, Msta-S). Recent engagements confirm RF forces are conducting probing operations and advancing on several axes in Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare Dominance: Highly adaptive and pervasive information warfare apparatus capable of rapid narrative dissemination, exploiting Ukrainian internal issues (e.g., NABU/SAP protests), leveraging foreign political discourse (e.g., Trump's statements), and controlling its domestic information space. RF continues to use foreign political figures (Trump, Rubio) and internal Western political events (Epstein case, US intelligence narratives) to create narratives of division and fatigue within the Western alliance regarding support for Ukraine. RF intends to exploit narratives of alleged UAF atrocities in border regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Long-term Military Investment: Projecting $1.1 trillion USD rearmament plan by 2036. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Intentions:
  • Degrade Ukrainian Combat Potential and Civilian Morale: Continue high-volume missile and drone attacks to exhaust AD, disrupt logistics, and inflict civilian casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sustain Ground Pressure and Achieve Localized Gains: Continue ground advances across key axes, particularly Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts, to expand occupied territory. Shift to mechanized assaults on Pokrovsk suggests intent for deeper breakthroughs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Disrupt Ukrainian Governance and International Support: Amplify internal Ukrainian political and social tensions (e.g., NABU/SAP protests, mobilization issues) through information operations. Attribute internal disasters to Ukrainian sabotage (e.g., Transbaikalia fires). Leverage perceived US political divisions to undermine Western unity. RF will continue to use foreign political figures and internal Western political events to create narratives of division and fatigue within the Western alliance regarding support for Ukraine. RF intends to exploit narratives of alleged UAF atrocities in border regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Enhance Domestic Military Industrial Complex: Committed to expanding domestic defense production, especially UAVs, including new designs like the "Yolka." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Leverage Diplomatic Engagements for Tactical Gains: Continue to participate in negotiations to present a pragmatic, humanitarian face, secure limited agreements (e.g., POW/civilian exchanges, body repatriations), and potentially sow dissent or fatigue within Ukraine and among its partners, while maintaining overall military pressure. RF's offer for humanitarian pauses and online working groups, combined with explicit statements about "far" positions on overall settlement, indicates an intent to manage optics and conduct limited, pragmatic exchanges rather than a comprehensive peace. New demand for exchange for Kursk Oblast residents indicates an attempt to extract more concessions. RF will continue to push counter-narratives on Ukrainian children and frame returned Ukrainian POWs as facing penal battalions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF will continue to shape historical narratives (e.g., Red Army in Poland) to justify its actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• First FAB-3000 Deployment: Operational use of FAB-3000 M-54 UMPK in Kharkiv AO, increasing destructive power against fortified positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Shift to Mechanized Assaults (Pokrovsk): Transition from dismounted infantry to company-sized mechanized assaults, indicating a more coordinated and potentially effective ground offensive approach. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Increased Fiber-Optic FPV Drone Production: Scaling production to "tens of thousands per month" signifies a major escalation in tactical precision strike capabilities with reduced EW vulnerability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Targeting of Ukrainian Internal Security Infrastructure: Direct strikes on police departments in Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Adaptive Counter-UAS Measures: Development and deployment of new anti-drone systems (Rostec, Shadow detectors). Showcasing of advanced RF "Rubicon" air defense combat groups and their multi-drone ISR capabilities indicates an adaptation to counter Ukrainian drone effectiveness and enhance own reconnaissance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Leveraging Penal System for Recruitment: Recruitment of individuals involved in serious criminal cases. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Exploiting Internal Ukrainian Protests: Actively using Ukrainian protests against the NABU/SAP law in their information operations, inflating participation figures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Intensified Diplomacy with Pragmatic Outcomes: Active participation in Istanbul negotiations at a high level, resulting in an agreement for POW/civilian exchanges and body repatriations. Proposals for humanitarian pauses and online working groups indicate a tactical diplomatic shift to achieve limited, mutually beneficial outcomes and manage the narrative. New demand for exchange for Kursk Oblast residents. Continued counter-narrative on deported children. RF is publicly claiming that exchanged Ukrainian POWs will be sent to penal battalions, a new information operation to deter surrender and demoralize Ukrainian forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Narrative for Internal Issues: RF attributing internal disasters (e.g., wildfires in Transbaikalia) to Ukrainian sabotage, demonstrating an adaptation in information operations to manage domestic grievances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Development/Showcasing of New Drone Platforms: Introduction of the "Yolka" kinetic UAV suggests continued R&D and a push for new offensive drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Increased UAF UAV Attacks within RF Territory: RF reports increased UAV attacks over Krasnodar Krai, Black, and Azov Seas, specifically around Sochi, indicate a potential adaptation in UAF long-range strike capabilities or targeting strategy against RF internal targets. Confirmed oil depot strike near Sochi demonstrates UAF capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Munitions Supply: High capacity for sustained, large-volume production and deployment of UAVs, missiles, and guided bombs. Robust and growing domestic supply chain for tactical assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Fuel/Energy: Continues to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Internal RF energy infrastructure vulnerable to UAF drone attacks. Confirmed strike on oil depot near Sochi indicates vulnerability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Transportation: Continued utilization of railways for troop and material movement. Internal railway disruptions due to UAF drone attacks can temporarily impact logistics. Temporary flight restrictions at Sochi airport could indicate localized airspace management or a reaction to a perceived threat, though not directly related to logistics for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Personnel/Recruitment: Relies on conventional and unconventional recruitment methods, suggesting continued demand. Internal dissent and criticism from milbloggers like Strelkov regarding "mediocrities" in leadership may indicate underlying personnel quality issues despite recruitment efforts. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) The report of the Ministry of Interior placing a soldier's widow on a wanted list for criticizing a colonel suggests internal issues with dissent and morale within the military or its support networks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Reports of civilian water shortages in occupied Donetsk (Kirovsky District) imply ongoing logistical challenges in maintaining basic services in some controlled areas, which Pushilin confirms as a challenge due to "lack of people and equipment." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Tactical unit appeals for drones/Starlink suggest localized resource constraints. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The liquidation of a high-profile RF EW commander on vacation suggests a vulnerability in personnel security or a morale impact from combat exhaustion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• Centralized Planning and Coordination: Multi-vector, simultaneous aerial assaults indicate effective high-level planning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Tactical Flexibility: Units demonstrate ability to adapt tactics on the ground (e.g., mechanized assaults), implying responsive tactical command. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Information Control: Strict control over domestic information environment, using legal measures and propaganda. Continued arrests of media personnel (Baza editor/producer) highlight robust internal control measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Security Operations: FSB operations demonstrate effective internal security C2, including targeting of RDK figures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Potential for Friction: Appeals from RF milbloggers for FPV drones and Starlink suggest some tactical unit resource constraints or C2 limitations at lower levels. Criticism from Strelkov regarding "mediocrities" in leadership could suggest deeper C2 issues, although this is a long-standing critique. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) The stated "far" positions in Istanbul negotiations suggest a lack of C2 flexibility on core political objectives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The liquidation of a high-profile RF EW commander during vacation may point to a breakdown in C2 or personnel security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Air Defense (AD) Posture: Remains highly engaged, intercepting significant numbers of RF aerial targets. Critical international support is ongoing, but projected delays in Patriot system delivery are a significant concern. The confirmed sale of HAWK Phase III SAMs will augment AD capabilities. Successful interception of 13x Shahed UAVs approaching Odesa indicates continued AD effectiveness, though new inbound threats require sustained vigilance. Continued successful interception of Shahed UAVs on Odesa and Zaporizhzhia indicates effective UAF AD response. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ground Forces Posture: Primarily defensive, repelling numerous RF assaults on key axes. Demonstrated effective counter-battery fire and tactical drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Tactical Drone Integration: Continues to demonstrate effective tactical drone integration for reconnaissance, targeting, and kinetic effects. Innovative use of ground robots for medical evacuation. Development and showcasing of new offensive drone capabilities (Bulava). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Training and Personnel: Ongoing rigorous training for various units. Integration of convicts raises concerns regarding discipline and cohesion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Security and Governance: Actively investigating corruption and countering Russian influence operations. Controversial NABU/SAP law is a significant internal and international concern, actively being addressed by presidential initiative and parliamentary action, including direct engagement with law enforcement and anti-corruption agencies. Ukrainian government's approval of moratorium on business inspections and launching a grant competition for explosive materials production indicates a focus on domestic economic stability and defense industrial capacity amidst the conflict. SBU is actively involved in facilitating prisoner exchanges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Humanitarian and Civilian Support: Local authorities and emergency services remain engaged in rescue, recovery, and support efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Diplomatic Posture: Ukraine is actively pursuing a leaders' meeting with RF, mediated by Turkey and potentially with US involvement, indicating a proactive diplomatic stance. Ukraine has also agreed to a large-scale exchange of military and civilian personnel. Umerov states that documents from Istanbul should not be called memorandums, signaling a cautious approach to the formality of agreements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:
  • Successful AD Engagements: Continued high interception rates of RF aerial targets, including new interceptions of Shaheds targeting Ochakiv. Successful interception of 13x Shahed UAVs over Odesa. Successful interception of additional Shahed UAVs over Odesa and Zaporizhzhia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Effective Counter-Battery Fire: Successful targeting and destruction of high-value RF artillery and radar systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Successful Tactical Drone Operations: Achieved kinetic effects against RF personnel, vehicles, and C2 nodes. Demonstrated new offensive drone systems (Bulava). Active operations in Svatove direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Repulsed RF Ground Assaults: Prevented major breakthroughs on most axes despite numerous assaults, including mechanized assaults on Pokrovsk axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Innovative Battlefield Solutions: Deployment of ground robots for medical evacuation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Infrastructure Protection: Construction of anti-drone tunnel on key frontline highway. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Political Response to Internal Concerns: Swift presidential response and upcoming Rada session on NABU/SAP law, including direct engagement with security and anti-corruption bodies. Government approval of business inspection moratorium and domestic explosives production grants. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Engagement: President Zelenskyy met with the Israeli Foreign Minister, discussing cooperation and air defense reinforcement. Active participation in Istanbul negotiations, leading to an agreement on POW/civilian exchanges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Morale Boost: Ukrainian fencer's World Championship victory provides a significant morale boost. Successful large-scale POW exchange, confirmed by multiple sources and visually by videos of emotional homecomings, provides a substantial morale boost. SBU's release of exclusive video from the prisoner exchange further reinforces this success. Budanov's confirmation of the number of released prisoners provides further transparency. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • International Support (Sweden): Sweden preparing a new, powerful defense package for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New US Military Aid: Pentagon and US State Department approved $322 million in military aid, signaling continued robust international support, including the provision of HAWK Phase III SAMs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAV Attacks on RF Territory: Continued successful drone attacks on RF territory, including targets near Sochi and Krasnodar Krai, demonstrating extended reach. Confirmed strike on oil depot near Sochi. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Targeting of High-Value RF Personnel: Confirmed liquidation of a high-profile RF EW unit commander on vacation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Setbacks:
  • Continued Civilian Casualties and Infrastructure Damage: Persistent and widespread RF aerial attacks, including first FAB-3000 deployment and damage to civilian infrastructure in Odesa and Sumy. Confirmed explosions in Odesa due to drone attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Localized Ground Advances: Confirmed RF advances in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Delayed Patriot Deliveries: Projected delays until Spring 2026. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security and Governance Concerns: NABU/SAP law controversy impacts international trust, despite current political action. RF information operations attempting to exploit these issues, with significant public protest in Kyiv and Lviv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Loss of Combat Commanders: Death of Maksym Kazban, National Police assault brigade commander. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Propaganda Exploitation of Internal Issues: RF actively exploiting NABU/SAP protests and claiming defections from Ukrainian border guard and National Guard. RF now using the children's return issue as a counter-narrative, and is publicly claiming that exchanged Ukrainian POWs will be sent to penal battalions. RF is leveraging US internal political narratives (Trump/sanctions) to sow discord. RF information operations are attempting to exploit statements by US political figures (Trump, Rubio) regarding aid to Ukraine and internal US political events (Epstein case, US intelligence narratives). RF is also exploiting alleged UAF crimes against civilians in border areas (Kursk Oblast). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Unfulfilled Humanitarian Agreements: RF claims 101 points from previous humanitarian agreements were not fully met. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Disparity in Body Repatriation: RF claims to have returned significantly more Ukrainian bodies than it has received. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New RF Demand: RF proposes exchanging Ukrainian military for residents of Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Critical Needs: Air Defense Systems and Ammunition (especially Patriot, and now confirmed HAWK Phase III systems), Electronic Warfare (EW) Systems, Drones and Counter-Drone Capabilities, Artillery Ammunition and Armored Vehicles, and Logistical Support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Constraints: Limited Domestic Production Capacity (though efforts underway for explosives), Funding Gaps, International Aid Delays (e.g., Patriot until 2026), Manpower Strain, and Corruption Concerns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Propaganda: Active promotion of "new Maidan" narrative to portray Ukrainian instability (e.g., protests against NABU/SAP law), claims of Western indifference, amplification of Ukrainian corruption and incompetence narratives, glorification of RF military, normalization of life in Russia, and foreign influence operations (e.g., leveraging Trump). New narrative attempting to portray internal conflict within Ukrainian National Guard and defections of border guards. RF milbloggers framing new RF laws as preparing for a "grand traitorous deal" by Putin, aiming to preemptively manage domestic dissent. RF is reporting civilian casualties in Bryansk Oblast due to Ukrainian strikes, framing them as "treacherous." MoD Russia is disseminating videos of alleged Ukrainian POWs surrendering, likely for demoralization. RF channels are attempting to sow internal discord in Ukraine by highlighting anti-corruption protests and questioning why families of fallen soldiers aren't also protesting. RF media is subtly promoting narratives of internal stability and "normalization" within Russia, even through seemingly unrelated content like student dormitory videos, while also stoking xenophobia with reports of migrant crime. RF media is highlighting captured Western equipment as a "gift" from NATO/Ukraine, reinforcing a narrative of RF battlefield success and Western material losses. RF is framing the Istanbul negotiations as a display of their pragmatic willingness for dialogue, while emphasizing Ukrainian inflexibility on core issues. RF is attempting to highlight perceived Ukrainian failures to fulfill humanitarian agreements. RF is using the disparity in body exchanges to frame Ukraine as not prioritizing its fallen. RF is now actively pushing a counter-narrative regarding the forced deportation of Ukrainian children, claiming many were never in Russia or were adults. RF is also framing the POW exchange from their perspective as a success. TASS is disseminating propaganda that exchanged Ukrainian soldiers are being sent to penal battalions and face criminal charges, aiming to sow fear and discourage surrender among Ukrainian forces. "Операция Z" is disseminating a video featuring Tulsi Gabbard (former US Presidential candidate) claiming Obama could be accused of treason for allegedly instructing intelligence to include claims of Trump's support for Russia in a 2017 report. This is a clear RF information operation aiming to sow discord in the US and undermine support for Ukraine. RF milbloggers are leveraging the protests in Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, and Dnipropetrovsk to push the "new Maidan" narrative and portray internal instability in Ukraine. RF is trying to discredit the Ukrainian cause by implying sympathy for Ukrainian forces fighting for a "worthless" cause (НгП раZVедка). TASS is framing RF's role in Istanbul as demonstrating "humanism and aspiration for diplomatic resolution." RF is attempting to draw attention to US internal political issues (Macron/Owens lawsuit) as a diversion or to discredit Western figures. RF is promoting a narrative that large-scale wildfires in Transbaikalia are caused by "arsonists working for Ukrainians," externalizing domestic issues. RF is actively using the White House press briefing on Trump's purported intentions regarding sanctions to bolster their narrative of US internal divisions. RF is promoting a historical narrative of the Red Army "liberating" Poland, likely to legitimize its current actions and assert its historical role. TASS photo messages show Medinsky with Ruttе, again reinforcing historical narratives, likely to influence international perceptions. Colonelcassad posting "Culture of DNR" video is a soft power influence operation. TASS reports Trump's view that Europe should have paid for Ukraine aid three years ago, a narrative intended to create divisions within the Western alliance. TASS reports on Trump and his administration being "furious" about Epstein case coverage, possibly a distraction or discrediting tactic. TASS reports Rubio influenced Trump to take a tougher stance on Russia, Venezuela, Iran, and China, per Financial Times, indicating continued RF efforts to portray US political maneuvering. TASS reports US Justice Department will create a special group to check Obama's alleged involvement in fabricating intelligence data on Russian interference in US elections, reinforcing RF narrative of US political division and alleged intelligence malfeasance. Colonelcassad uses a civilian testimony from Kursk Oblast to further RF narratives of alleged UAF atrocities against civilians in border areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukrainian Counter-Propaganda: Highlighting RF casualties and atrocities, showcasing UAF effectiveness and resilience, promoting international support, addressing internal issues transparently, and emphasizing humanitarian efforts. Showcasing Ukrainian sporting achievements as a source of national pride. Zelenskyy's video address on internal meetings with law enforcement and anti-corruption agencies serves as a counter to RF narratives of instability and corruption. Umerov's statement on readiness for ceasefire and leader's meeting indicates a proactive stance to control the diplomatic narrative. The successful large-scale POW exchange, prominently featured by Ukrainian official sources, directly counters RF narratives of Ukrainian inflexibility and effectively boosts national morale. SBU's release of exclusive video from the prisoner exchange is a key component of this counter-propaganda. Umerov's clarification that Istanbul agreements are not "memorandums" is a subtle but important counter-narrative to RF framing. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS directly refutes Medinsky's claim about Ukrainian children, calling it "shameless lies." Оперативний ЗСУ highlights the patriotism of a returned Ukrainian POW, directly countering RF demoralization efforts. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 uses a video of a wounded RF soldier for demoralizing purposes, highlighting RF casualties and suffering. Ukrainian sources are highlighting the liquidation of a high-profile RF EW commander, likely for morale boost and to demonstrate UAF targeting capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukraine: Resilience amidst attacks, but tension over mobilization, strong public concern over anti-corruption reforms (NABU/SAP protests), and dire humanitarian situation in frontline cities (Kramatorsk evacuations). The ongoing protests against the NABU/SAP law in Kyiv and Lviv signal significant public dissatisfaction with perceived corruption, which RF is actively exploiting. Ukrainian sporting success (fencing world championship) provides a positive morale boost. Public protest in Odesa against Mayor Trukhanov, as highlighted by STERNENKO, indicates localized dissatisfaction with governance. The large-scale POW exchange will significantly boost national morale and trust in the government's ability to retrieve its citizens, evidenced by emotional homecoming videos. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Heavily managed information environment, underlying internal security concerns (arrests related to aiding Ukraine, media raids, targeting of RDK figures, liquidation of a high-profile RF commander), economic impacts framed by state media, potential recruitment challenges, and exploitation of Ukrainian internal divisions for domestic consumption. Growing domestic concern among some milblogger circles regarding potential diplomatic "betrayal" at Istanbul talks. Igor Strelkov's public criticism of RF leadership suggests a segment of the nationalist-military community is becoming increasingly disillusioned with the conflict's management. Reports of internal crackdowns on dissent within military families (soldier's widow wanted list) indicate efforts to control narratives and potential discontent. Reports of civilian water shortages in occupied Donetsk will negatively impact morale there. Tactical unit appeals for donations indicate potential morale issues stemming from equipment shortfalls. The reported return of RF POWs will provide a domestic morale boost. Reports of 150,000 rubles being a basic minimum income in Moscow highlights economic pressures that could impact public sentiment. Videos of fatigued RF soldiers are likely intended to humanize them and garner sympathy from the RF public. The warning from RF milbloggers against filming air defense activity highlights a concern about domestic OPSEC awareness and potentially public anxiety during attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Support for Ukraine: Continued military aid pledges and deliveries (Germany, Norway, Netherlands, Canada). High-level diplomatic engagement (Zelenskyy meeting with Erdogan, Israeli MFA visit). Strong concerns from G7, OECD, Germany, and France regarding NABU/SAP law, but ongoing Ukrainian political efforts to address this. Ongoing international legal action against RF proxy forces. Potential for post-war troop stationing by some European partners. France has specifically expressed concern that the NABU/SAP law contradicts Ukraine's EU accession policy. Zelenskyy's meeting with Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar focused on defense cooperation and strengthening Ukrainian air defense, signaling continued diplomatic outreach for support. Sweden is preparing a new, powerful defense package for Ukraine. Pentagon and US State Department approved two military aid packages to Ukraine totaling $322 million, including the confirmed sale of Bradley repair equipment and HAWK Phase III SAMs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Diplomatic Activity: Participation in Istanbul negotiations, with an active effort to control the narrative surrounding the meetings. Outreach to non-Western partners (DPRK, Egypt, Afghanistan). Sanctions countermeasures against EU representatives. Use of state media to influence international narratives. Full delegation talks between Russia and Ukraine have commenced in Istanbul and have now concluded, signaling the next phase of diplomatic engagement. Turkey's mediation efforts are highlighted by RF state media, emphasizing Turkey's role in facilitating talks and potentially monitoring a ceasefire. Agreement on POW/civilian exchanges and body repatriations indicates a limited, pragmatic outcome from the negotiations, potentially for humanitarian reasons or to foster a perception of Russian willingness for dialogue. RF proposals for humanitarian pauses and online working groups seek to maintain a diplomatic channel while emphasizing their terms. RF's public statements about "far" positions on overall settlement suggest a continued hardline stance on core demands, despite engagement in limited humanitarian dialogue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Information:
    • RF confirmed POW exchange, portraying it as a positive step for humanitarian cooperation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Medinsky's public statements regarding Ukrainian children and the Kursk Oblast exchange proposal are intended to shape international perceptions of RF's "humanitarian" efforts and negotiate new terms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Slutsky's statement about hoping for a "positive reaction" from Kyiv regarding working groups signals RF's attempt to portray themselves as reasonable. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • RF is actively using White House press briefings on Trump's purported intentions regarding sanctions to bolster their narrative of US internal divisions and undermine support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • TASS reports Rubio influenced Trump to take a tougher stance on Russia, Venezuela, Iran, and China, per Financial Times, indicating continued RF efforts to portray US political maneuvering. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • TASS reports US Justice Department will create a special group to check Obama's alleged involvement in fabricating intelligence data on Russian interference in US elections, reinforcing RF narrative of US political division and alleged intelligence malfeasance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Hungary is open to finding solutions with RF in case of an EU ban on Russian gas supplies, according to Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjarto. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

1. Sustained Deep Strike Campaign: RF will continue high-volume, multi-vector missile and UAV attacks targeting critical civilian infrastructure, military-industrial facilities, and urban centers across Ukraine, including the likely continued use of FAB-3000s in specific tactical locations. RF will maintain UAV pressure on southern oblasts and continue to target the Black Sea and Azov Sea areas with UAVs against maritime and coastal targets, with continued UAF retaliatory UAV attacks on RF territory (e.g., Sochi). RF will continue targeted Shahed UAV attacks on Mykolaiv, Odesa and Kharkiv Oblasts. The confirmed oil depot strike near Sochi will likely trigger further RF AD and counter-UAS measures in RF border/coastal areas. RF will likely launch additional Shahed UAVs towards Zaporizhzhia, Cherkasy, and Poltava Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
   • INDICATORS: Continued air raid alerts, high numbers of intercepted aerial targets, persistent reports of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, confirmed deployment of FAB-3000s in new AOs, continued KAB launches on Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, and ongoing UAV threats for eastern Chernihiv, southern oblasts, coastal areas, and increased reports of UAV activity over RF territory. New inbound UAVs towards Odesa and Kharkiv, coupled with increased RF AD posture near border areas and Black Sea coast. New UAVs in Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Cherkasy, and Poltava Oblasts.
2. Increased Ground Pressure on Donetsk and Sumy Axes: RF will continue localized ground assaults, intensifying efforts around Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, Kramatorsk, and Varachino. The shift to mechanized assaults on Pokrovsk suggests an attempt to achieve deeper tactical penetrations. Active operations in Svatove and Kamensky (Zaporizhzhia) directions will persist. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
   • INDICATORS: Continued reports of RF ground advances in these areas, increased commitment of armored vehicles, and UAF reporting of repelled assaults. DeepState map updates will confirm localized changes.
3. Intensified Hybrid Operations, Focusing on Internal Divides & Diplomatic Narratives: RF will escalate information operations exploiting internal Ukrainian political issues (NABU/SAP protests, mobilization issues) and perceived Western fatigue. They will continue attempts to sow distrust within Ukrainian military and security forces. RF media will intensify efforts to control domestic and international narratives surrounding the Istanbul negotiations, portraying RF as pragmatic and humanitarian while highlighting Ukrainian inflexibility. RF will continue to use narratives related to children's return and POW exchanges to frame itself as a humanitarian actor while pressing new demands. RF will also continue to spread demoralizing narratives about the fate of exchanged Ukrainian POWs. RF will also attempt to attribute internal Russian problems (e.g., wildfires) to Ukrainian sabotage, and leverage historical narratives (e.g., Poland) to justify its actions. RF internal security apparatus will continue to target individuals deemed sympathetic to Ukraine, including figures related to RDK. RF will continue to leverage statements from foreign political figures (Trump, Rubio) and internal Western political events (Epstein case, US intelligence narratives) to sow discord and undermine support for Ukraine. RF will also exploit alleged UAF crimes against civilians in border regions (e.g., Kursk Oblast). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
   • INDICATORS: Increased RF media focus on Ukrainian internal protests (e.g., "new Maidan" narrative on NABU/SAP protests), and National Guard narratives, amplification of negative Western commentary, continued use of POW testimonies, increased domestic propaganda on internal Russian social/economic issues, and specific RF media reports on the outcomes and limitations of the Istanbul talks, with emphasis on new exchange proposals and negative portrayals of returned Ukrainian POWs. RF milbloggers will continue to voice internal criticisms regarding the conflict's management and leadership. New narratives attributing Russian internal disasters to Ukraine and historical revisionism. Reports of further arrests of individuals suspected of aiding Ukraine within RF. Continued reporting by TASS on Trump's statements or US internal political events, and RF milblogger focus on alleged UAF civilian atrocities in border areas.
4. Domestic Drone Production Scaling and Counter-UAS Deployment: RF will prioritize and accelerate domestic production of advanced tactical drones, especially fiber-optic FPVs and new designs like the "Yolka" kinetic UAV, and continue to deploy new counter-UAS systems. RF "Rubicon" air defense combat groups will likely increase their use and showcase of multi-drone ISR capabilities to counter UAF drones and improve targeting, leveraging advanced detectors like "Shadow." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
   • INDICATORS: Continued public statements about UAV development, showcasing of new drone systems, and reports of increased FPV drone usage, as well as reported captures of new RF EW/counter-drone equipment. Videos or reports from RF sources demonstrating advanced drone operations by units like "Rubicon" and the public discussion/marketing of systems like "Shadow."
5. Conditional Diplomatic Engagement with Limited Scope: RF will continue to engage in limited diplomatic processes, such as further rounds of Istanbul talks, but will primarily focus on humanitarian issues (POW/civilian exchanges, body repatriations, children's return) and de-escalation gestures (humanitarian pauses), rather than comprehensive peace agreements. RF will likely insist on preliminary agreements on settlement terms before any leader-level meeting and will introduce new conditions such as the exchange for Kursk Oblast residents. The short duration of the latest bilateral meeting (30 minutes) suggests a continued divergence on core issues. RF will likely seek to exploit any divisions within the EU regarding energy security, as indicated by Hungary's statements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
   • INDICATORS: Continued high-intensity fighting on the ground despite diplomatic engagement, focus on specific, limited agreements rather than comprehensive peace, and continued RF information operations framing negotiation outcomes and conditions for further talks, including new demands. RF will continue to claim humanitarian efforts while maintaining significant discrepancies in body repatriation figures. Further statements from EU member states regarding energy or economic cooperation with RF.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

1. Strategic Air Campaign Shift on a Single City: RF could concentrate a sustained barrage on one or two major urban centers or critical infrastructure nodes using FAB-3000s, Kinzhals, and massed Shaheds, aiming for psychological effect and system collapse. This could include significant attacks on Odesa or Mykolaiv. The current multi-vector Shahed attacks on Odesa suggest a testing or preparatory phase for a more concentrated strike, which could be augmented by Kinzhal launches. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
   • INDICATORS: Unusually high concentration of inbound aerial targets towards a single metropolitan area, strategic targets previously unhit being targeted, or a prolonged attack cycle with minimal pauses. New UAV threats directly targeting major population centers from multiple vectors, accompanied by ballistic or hypersonic missile launches.
2. Decisive Breakthrough on Pokrovsk Axis with Reserve Commitment: RF could commit significant multi-battalion forces, including operational reserves (e.g., from the 76th VDV Division), to achieve a decisive breakthrough on the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka axis, aiming to cut off vital supply routes and isolate key UAF concentrations. This could be coupled with attempts to fix Ukrainian reserves on the Kharkiv axis. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
   • INDICATORS: Large-scale, sustained ground assaults involving multiple RF brigades/divisions, heavy commitment of RF armor and artillery, confirmed significant RF territorial gains, or reports of UAF forces being encircled or forced into major tactical withdrawals.
3. Escalated Hybrid Operations with Direct Impact on International Support: RF could conduct significant cyberattacks on critical infrastructure of key international partners or stage false-flag operations to disrupt aid shipments or discredit Ukrainian leadership, leading to a significant reduction in international support. This could involve direct cyberattacks on Western government systems or critical national infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
   • INDICATORS: High-impact cyberattacks on Western critical infrastructure, credible intelligence of RF involvement in sabotage outside Ukraine, or sudden shifts in public or political support for Ukraine in key Western nations.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Next 24-72 Hours (Until 270600Z JUL 25): Continued intense RF aerial attacks nationwide, especially central and eastern Ukraine, with high probability of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. New UAV threats will persist in southern and central Ukraine, with potential for strikes on Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts. Ground pressure high on Donetsk and Sumy axes. Continued implementation of POW/civilian exchanges from Istanbul negotiations, including body repatriations. RF will likely continue to push for "humanitarian pauses" and the "Kursk Oblast resident" exchange, and propagate narratives about returned Ukrainian POWs. UAF UAV attacks on RF territory will likely continue, especially targeting logistics and energy infrastructure near border regions or the Black Sea coast. Immediate threat of Shahed UAV attacks on Odesa and Kharkiv. RF AD will be on heightened alert in border regions and near the Black Sea following the Sochi strike. Expect continued Shahed UAV activity in Zaporizhzhia, Cherkasy, and Poltava Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Decision Point (UAF): Re-evaluate AD asset allocation based on attack effectiveness and damage severity, prioritizing areas with new confirmed UAV threats. Reinforce AD and counter-UAS capabilities in Mykolaiv and Odesa given sustained threat.
  • Decision Point (UAF): Commit strategic reserves to Pokrovsk if mechanized assaults show greater effectiveness.
  • Decision Point (UAF): Rapid response to RF proposals for humanitarian pauses, balancing humanitarian needs with tactical risks, and formally respond to the Kursk Oblast exchange proposal. Develop immediate counter-narratives to RF propaganda about returned Ukrainian POWs. Issue clear guidance to civilians on not filming AD activities.
• Next 1-2 Weeks (Until 070600Z AUG 25): RF will consolidate gains and prepare for further localized offensives. Pace of aerial attacks will remain significant. Internal Ukrainian debates regarding NABU/SAP law will continue, amplified by RF, but with potential for progress due to presidential and parliamentary action. International partners will closely assess impact on future aid. Discussions on proposed online working groups for negotiations will likely continue, with Ukraine pushing back on the "memorandum" framing. RF will intensify information operations regarding alleged UAF atrocities in border areas and US political divisions. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Decision Point (International Partners): Outcome of NABU/SAP controversy will influence future financial and institutional support.
  • Decision Point (UAF): Assess RF's sincerity and tactical implications of proposed online working groups and continued humanitarian exchanges, carefully managing the narrative around any agreements. Evaluate impact of newly approved US military aid (Bradley repair, HAWK SAMs). Develop and disseminate strong counter-narratives to RF claims of UAF atrocities.
• Next 1-3 Months (Until 240600Z OCT 25): RF will continue long-term military modernization and industrial expansion. High pace of conflict, attritional ground warfare, deep strike campaigns. Potential for increased RF pressure on Kharkiv axis. The prospect of a leader-level meeting will remain conditional on preliminary settlement discussions, with RF likely maintaining its stance that full settlement precedes a leader summit. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Decision Point (UAF): Strategic decisions on troop mobilization, domestic defense production ramp-up, and diplomatic efforts to secure long-term aid commitments.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

1. RF FAB-3000 Production & Deployment:
   • Gap: Precise inventory, production rate, and logistical chain for FAB-3000 M-54 and associated UMPK kits. Specific launch platforms beyond Su-34, and their operational limitations. Verification of alleged FAB-3000 hits and their precise destructive effects.
   • Collection Requirements: SIGINT on RF aviation units suspected of FAB-3000 deployment. IMINT/GEOINT on airfields in Belgorod/Voronezh Oblasts for FAB-3000 storage or loading operations. HUMINT on RF defense industrial complex capabilities. Post-strike Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for FAB-3000 impacts.
2. RF Ground Force Composition and Intentions (Pokrovsk Axis):
   • Gap: Full unit composition, strength, and C2 structure of RF mechanized groupings on the Pokrovsk Axis, particularly confirming the elements and sustained operational tempo of the 76th VDV Division. Specific objectives and timelines for their offensive operations beyond initial probing. Assessment of the capacity and willingness of RF tactical units to conduct sustained mechanized assaults given their reported appeals for equipment.
   • Collection Requirements: ISR (UAV, satellite, ground reconnaissance) for detailed Order of Battle (OB) on Pokrovsk Axis. SIGINT on RF tactical communications to detect command intentions and movement orders. HUMINT from captured personnel. OSINT monitoring of RF milblogger appeals for equipment at the tactical level.
3. RF Tactical Drone Strategy and EW Capabilities:
   • Gap: Detailed information on the specific types and capabilities of newly developed RF anti-drone systems (e.g., "Shadow" detector) and their operational deployment. The full scale and effectiveness of RF's fiber-optic FPV drone production and deployment, including tactical employment doctrine. Verification of tactical unit-level resource shortfalls (e.g., drones, Starlink) despite overall production claims. Analysis of the "Yolka" kinetic UAV's capabilities, production status, and potential operational deployment. Further details on the specific capabilities and operational integration of the multi-drone ISR platforms utilized by RF "Rubicon" air defense combat groups (e.g., SHARK-M, LELEKA-100, RAEFLY VTOL, FLYEYE), and comprehensive analysis of the "Shadow" detector's capabilities.
   • Collection Requirements: Technical Intelligence (TECHINT) on captured RF drones and EW systems. SIGINT to identify new EW frequencies or capabilities. HUMINT from RF drone operators. OSINT monitoring of social media appeals for donations for tactical equipment. Imagery intelligence on new drone designs like "Yolka" for feature analysis. IMINT/GEOINT on "Rubicon" group activities to assess operational patterns and specific drone deployments. Conduct further technical analysis of the "Shadow" detector, including its performance against UAF drone frequencies.
4. RF Internal Stability and Public Sentiment on Negotiations:
   • Gap: Deeper understanding of the actual impact of anti-corruption campaigns and new laws on Russian public sentiment and elite cohesion, particularly regarding the Istanbul negotiations' outcomes and proposed humanitarian agreements. Extent of potential internal dissent or opposition to ongoing military recruitment and potential diplomatic concessions implied by the negotiations, especially given criticism from figures like Strelkov. Specific impact of the POW exchange and Kursk Oblast exchange proposal on Russian public sentiment, and the effectiveness of RF propaganda regarding exchanged Ukrainian POWs. Actual domestic reception and belief in new narratives blaming Ukraine for internal RF disasters. Public reception of historical narratives (e.g., Poland) being pushed by the RF MoD. Detailed assessment of the impact and reach of RF information operations leveraging foreign political figures (Trump, Rubio) and internal Western political events (Epstein case, US intelligence narratives) within their domestic audience and internationally. The impact of the liquidation of high-profile RF personnel on domestic morale.
   • Collection Requirements: OSINT monitoring of Russian social media and regional news beyond state-controlled channels, specifically tracking discourse related to the Istanbul talks and government actions and critical milblogger commentary. HUMINT on internal political dynamics and public mood. Analysis of cross-platform RF information operations targeting Western audiences and political figures, focusing on their effectiveness. Monitor RF milblogger reactions to the confirmed liquidation of RF personnel.
5. Impact of NABU/SAP Law on International Aid:
   • Gap: Specific mechanisms and criteria that international partners (G7, OECD, Germany, France) will use to evaluate Ukraine's anti-corruption efforts and how these will directly influence future military and financial aid packages, especially given Zelenskyy's recent actions, the ongoing protests, and the internal government meetings on the issue.
   • Collection Requirements: OSINT monitoring of statements from international bodies and foreign governments. Diplomatic engagement and reporting from Ukrainian missions abroad on specific conditionalities.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize Air Defense Augmentation & Hardening: Immediately activate all available international diplomatic channels to expedite the delivery of promised Patriot systems and interceptor missiles. Lobby for direct transfers from European partners' existing stocks, with guarantees of rapid backfill by the US. Integrate and rapidly deploy the newly approved HAWK Phase III SAMs. Simultaneously, enhance passive air defense measures, focusing on hardening critical civilian and military infrastructure against FAB-3000 impacts and improving dispersal of C2 nodes. Prioritize AD for southern oblasts, particularly Mykolaiv and Odesa, and eastern oblasts like Kharkiv, given new inbound threats and high risk of civilian casualties. Deploy additional mobile AD assets to Zaporizhzhia, Cherkasy, and Poltava Oblasts based on new inbound UAV threats.
2. Strengthen Tactical EW & Counter-Drone Capabilities: Identify and procure high-priority EW systems, as requested by frontline units, to counter RF drone and ELINT capabilities. Accelerate domestic production and distribution of UAF-specific counter-drone solutions, including both kinetic and electronic measures. Task intelligence assets to specifically target and analyze newly identified RF anti-drone technologies, including the "Yolka" kinetic UAV and the operational patterns of RF "Rubicon" air defense combat groups' ISR drones, and the capabilities of the "Shadow" detector. Prioritize testing and rapid deployment of newly developed Ukrainian offensive drones like "Bulava." Continue to exploit intelligence from captured RF drones and their communication systems to enhance counter-UAS capabilities.
3. Enhance Anti-Armor Defenses (Pokrovsk Axis): Pre-position additional ATGM teams, FPV drone units with anti-armor warheads, and scatterable mine systems in depth along potential RF mechanized avenues of approach on the Pokrovsk axis. Develop and implement a layered defense plan to absorb and mitigate large-scale RF mechanized assaults.
4. Proactive Counter-Information Operations on Internal Issues & Diplomatic Narratives: Transparently communicate the government's stance and progress on the NABU/SAP law to both domestic and international audiences, directly addressing the protests in Kyiv and Lviv. Actively engage with protesters to address concerns and counter RF narratives seeking to exploit internal Ukrainian political differences and perceived divisions within the military/security forces. Leverage positive national news (e.g., sporting victories, POW exchange successes including SBU footage, Budanov's confirmed figures) to bolster morale and counter negative narratives. Highlight the proactive measures by President Zelenskyy and law enforcement agencies to address corruption. Counter RF narratives surrounding Istanbul negotiations by emphasizing Ukrainian readiness for peace on equitable terms, clarifying the nature of agreements (not "memorandums"), and highlighting RF's new, potentially non-humanitarian demands such as the Kursk Oblast resident exchange. Immediately and robustly counter RF propaganda claims that exchanged Ukrainian POWs will be sent to penal battalions. Actively use emotional homecoming videos of Ukrainian POWs to boost domestic morale and counter RF disinformation. Prepare counter-narratives for RF attempts to blame Ukraine for internal Russian incidents like wildfires and to discredit RF historical narratives on "liberation." Develop specific counter-narratives to RF information operations that exploit statements by foreign political figures (Trump, Rubio) or internal Western political events (Epstein case, US intelligence narratives), aiming to undermine international support. Proactively address and debunk RF narratives regarding alleged UAF crimes against civilians in border areas. Issue clear public guidance to civilians on not filming air defense activities during strikes.
5. Reinforce Civilian Protection Measures and Humanitarian Aid: Accelerate efforts to harden critical civilian infrastructure, particularly energy and transportation hubs, against recurring RF missile and UAV attacks. Establish and clearly communicate enhanced civilian shelter procedures in high-risk areas. Increase humanitarian aid and evacuation support for frontline cities experiencing intensified shelling, including areas with disrupted basic services like water supply. Provide immediate support to areas like Mykolaiv experiencing power outages due to RF attacks.
6. Maximize Domestic Drone Production and Innovation: Prioritize and maximize domestic production of all types of drones, especially FPVs and reconnaissance UAVs, by streamlining procurement processes, investing in local manufacturers, and securing necessary components from international partners. Encourage and support rapid innovation in UAF drone tactics and technology, actively addressing reported tactical-level equipment shortfalls. Leverage government grants for explosives production to further bolster domestic defense manufacturing.
7. Strategic Diplomatic Engagement with Clear Objectives: Maintain active engagement in the Istanbul negotiations, using the platform to articulate Ukrainian terms for a just peace while carefully monitoring RF intentions and adapting diplomatic strategy based on their battlefield actions. Coordinate closely with international partners to ensure a unified front in diplomatic engagements, particularly given internal RF dissent over potential concessions. Continue to push for comprehensive prisoner exchanges and body repatriations, ensuring mutual and verifiable implementation. Carefully assess the utility and potential pitfalls of proposed "humanitarian pauses" and "online working groups" for actual conflict resolution, and firmly address any new, unacceptable conditions such as the proposed Kursk Oblast resident exchange. Proactively engage with international partners to counter RF's efforts to exploit divisions, particularly within the EU regarding energy security.

---

// END OF REPORT //