Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 231807Z JUL 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats lifted; localized Shahed UAV threats persist for Lviv, Southern Ukraine, Dnipropetrovsk (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi, Synelnykivskyi districts), and Kharkiv Oblasts. Confirmed civilian casualties (14 fatalities, multiple injured) across multiple oblasts. Rescue and emergency services are actively engaged. Civilian infrastructure damage confirmed in Odesa due to RF UAV attack. Rocket danger for Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kryvyi Rih: Multiple reports of explosions due to mass Shahed UAV attack. Fires confirmed and liquidated; no casualties reported. Mayor Vilkul reports situation controlled. Ukrainian official reports two command centers will operate to assist residents whose property was damaged by overnight drone attacks, confirming 8 private homes and around 15 multi-story buildings hit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Northern Ukraine (Kyiv Oblast): Continued Air Defense (AD) engagement against Shahed UAVs over Kyiv. Kinetic impacts on residential/commercial buildings and a metro entrance; one fatality and nine injuries reported. Firefighters engaged a kindergarten fire. RF milblogger claims three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on Kyiv on 21 JUL 25, with video, and a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility. New ballistic missile threat for Kyiv lifted. RBC-Ukraine reports a localized internal security incident (shooting) in Vasylkiv. Crane collapse on Hlybochytska Street due to strong winds/storm affected civilian infrastructure, hospitalizing 5 individuals. Protest observed regarding legislation limiting NABU/SAP powers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Protests against the NABU/SAP law continue for a second day in Kyiv and other major cities, with ongoing gatherings. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Eastern Ukraine: Initial cruise missile group detected over Kharkiv Oblast, moving towards Poltava Oblast. Kharkiv's Kyivskyi district hit by 12 UAV strikes overnight. RF milblogger claims bomber strikes on UAF forward positions in Yanvarskyi supporting 36th Army advance. New group of RF UAVs reported from Luhansk Oblast moving towards Kharkiv Oblast. Kharkiv Oblast governor confirms strikes on Kharkiv city and 10 settlements. DeepState reports RF advances in Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, and near three other villages in Donetsk Oblast. MoD Russia video claims liberation of Popov Yar. RF milbloggers claim a new RF front opened in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian military operations confirmed near Belaya Gora, Donetsk, with claims of capturing foreign weapons. UAF National Guard "Khartia" brigade drone operators claimed destruction of nearly a platoon of Russian occupiers in Kharkiv Oblast. A tractor driver was blown up by a mine in Balakliia community, Kharkiv Oblast. At least 54 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast affected by enemy strikes over the past week. STERNENKO claims Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment holding back Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast. Liveuamap Source reports recent clashes at Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Gulyaypole, and Kherson directions. Ukrainian forces repelled 23 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. FPV drone strike on Russian UAZ-452 ('Bukhanka') vehicle confirmed. Perovske, Zolochiv community, Kharkiv, shelled. DeepState reports liquidation of RF sabotage groups in Pokrovsk. RF milbloggers claim RF DRG activity in Pokrovsk, with video suggesting an ambush on a UAF vehicle. Threat of aviation munitions for Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. Ukrainian forces repelled 22 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. DeepState analysis indicates RF army occupied Hrushevske and advanced near Voskresenka, Orikhove, Mayak and Zatyhka (formerly Suvorove) in Donetsk Oblast. TASS and MoD Russia claim RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske in DNR. TASS claims RF forces dislodged UAF from strongpoint near Kremenna and took control of 1 hectare of forest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: TASS reports RF forces advanced near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast, dislodging UAF units from several positions. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports renewed activity in Kharkiv direction, with video showing drone-guided strikes on targets, indicating continued RF pressure. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 video showcases 58th Brigade's use of BM-21 'Grad' MLRS to destroy Russian forces. TASS reports FPV drone operators of the "West" grouping destroyed a Ukrainian "Akatsiya" self-propelled howitzer. Colonelcassad video claims a strike on the 'Ordzhonikidzevsky District Police Department of the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Kharkiv'. Oleg Synegubov provides an update on attacks, weapon types (drones and artillery), impact on civilian infrastructure and residential buildings, and evacuation efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 photo messages indicate continued RF pressure in Kharkiv direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Popov Yar, Donetsk Oblast: TASS reports a group of Ukrainian servicemen surrendered. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • South-Donetsk Direction: Colonelcassad publishes video claiming successful destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit by 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade. TASS video claims RF Su-25 attack aircraft struck a UAF stronghold. MoD Russia video reports a Strela-10 air defense system crew wiped out a Yupiter drone. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast: ASTRA, RBC-Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 report a direct RF KAB strike on a residential building, resulting in confirmed death of a 10-year-old child and 7 injured. New information reports 12 injured after aviation strikes on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns report Kramatorsk Military Administration head Philashkin called on residents to urgently evacuate due to constant shelling. Военкор Котенок and Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) report Kramatorsk authorities are calling on residents to leave due to constant shelling and the approaching RF forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sloviansk, Donetsk Oblast: Олексій Білошицький reports Russian attack on Sloviansk. Paramedics from the "Predator" brigade assisted an 81-year-old woman. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk Oblast: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade drone operators created a "kill zone," destroying multiple enemy vehicles and personnel with FPV drones. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video of 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade using FPV drones to destroy two pieces of RF mechanized equipment during an attempted assault. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes a video showing Ukrainian drone operators (427th Separate Unmanned Systems Regiment "Rarog") using "fireball" bombs to destroy houses and premises used by the enemy. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (DeepState) reports RF advanced near Voskresenka, Dyliiivka, Karlivka, and Leonidiivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast: RBC-Ukraine provides photo/video on RF drone and KAB attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Belgorod Oblast (RF): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video claiming HIMARS strikes on an RF S-300 air defense battery, a "Nebo-M" radar, and a 5H66M "Big Bird" radar. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) TASS reports three injured, including two minors, in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF strike. ASTRA also reports three injured. "Два майора" publishes a video of an aerial attack on a convoy of vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора photo messages indicate damage in Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Velyka Novosilka - Shevchenko: Colonelcassad publishes photo message indicating RF advances near Leontovychi, Udachne and Shevchenko. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnolimanskoye Direction: Z комитет + карта СВО publishes military map overlays of Krasnolimanskoye direction, including Kolodezi, as of 23 JUL 25. This indicates continued RF focus and potential advances in this sector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad also publishes a tactical map for the Krasnolimanskoye direction, reinforcing this assessment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar: Colonelcassad provides video footage claiming the destruction of a UAF UAV command post. Операция Z publishes aerial reconnaissance footage of a rural area, indicating military activity, explosions, and damaged buildings. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnoarmeysk direction: MoD Russia video claims destruction of a UAF UAV control post. TASS reports RF forces are forming a wide encirclement of Krasnoarmeysk in DNR after liberating Novotoretske. Воин DV reports RF forces active, claiming to disable Starlink communications for 25th Airborne Brigade. Басурин о главном and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publish videos claiming Russian reconnaissance and DRG activity. MoD Russia publishes video claiming TOS-1A fire damage on a UAF stronghold. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок provides video message indicating ongoing operations on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction (left flank). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Alexandrovgrad: Воин DV publishes drone footage claiming destruction of armored vehicles and personnel by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 5th Guards Tank Brigade. DeepState reports RF advanced near Aleksandrovgrad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) DeepState confirms RF advances near Oleksandrovgrad, Komar, Voskresenka, Dyliivka, Torske, Karpivka, and Leonidivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Nikolaevka, DNR: Colonelcassad claims elements of the 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade have taken Nikolayevka in DNR. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Novotoretske, DNR: TASS, MoD Russia, Операция Z, and Kotsnews all claim RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske. TASS reports RF forces are now fighting for Fedorovka in DNR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Torskoye: Оперативний ЗСУ publishes drone video claiming to show a "military crime" by RF forces targeting a civilian on a bicycle. DeepState publishes video alleging RF forces shot a local resident on a bicycle. RF sources now claim Russian assault units have dislodged Ukrainian forces from Torske (DNR) and positions in the Serebryansky forestry. DeepState reports RF advanced near Torske. TASS reports Russian servicemen repelled three UAF attacks near Torske in DNR, occupying new positions in the eastern part of the village. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Orlivka, Sumy Oblast: Colonelcassad claims use of "Harpy" drones by RF UAV units to destroy temporary deployment points and vehicles of the UAF 104th Territorial Defense Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pokrovsk (Donetsk Oblast): Рыбарь channel publishes a photo and video indicating "Russian infantry in Pokrovsk." Воин DV publishes video claiming to show drone footage of an AFU armored vehicle being engaged by AIRNOMADS. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны publish video claiming fierce battles. RBC-Ukraine reports on the ongoing "cleanup" in Pokrovsk following a DRG breakthrough. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video of "WORMBUSTERS 414th UAV Brigade "Birds of Madyar" destroying Russian occupiers on motorbikes. RBC-Ukraine video with expert assessment confirms Pokrovsk may become the epicenter of large battles in the next 60 days. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages depicting damage in Pokrovsk, labeled "Pokrovsk today," corroborating reports of intense activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast, Izium: Colonelcassad publishes video showing residents of Izium visually monitoring a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike on a Ukrainian "occupation formation" object. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast, Oskil: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes drone footage showing the Khartia brigade's engagement against enemy personnel and a fuel depot. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kamyansk: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Defense Forces have withdrawn to the flanks and are holding Kamyansk under fire control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Konstantinovka Direction: Z комитет + карта СВО publishes a tactical map indicating RF advances and control zones as of 22 JUL 25. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New Z комитет + карта СВО photo message indicates current focus on Poltavka, likely related to a settlement or tactical objective. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Komar: TASS publishes video claiming RF stormtroopers "liberated" the village of Komar in DNR. DeepState reports RF advanced near Komar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novoselivka: Colonelcassad publishes video claiming destruction of UAF 118th Separate Mechanized Brigade equipment in Novoselivka area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pankovka: Народная милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of a UAF D-30 howitzer near Pankovka. Narodnaya militsiya DNR publishes video of destruction of a D-30 howitzer, claiming it was near Oktyabrsky. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kupyansk Direction: Z комитет + карта СВО publishes tactical map data for Kupyansk. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a tactical map with text indicating "successes near Kupyansk." Привид Хортиці shares video of night drone hunts by 15th Brigade NGU "Kara-Dag" in Kupyansk direction. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports on "Kupyansk offensive" claiming 'Groza' is massively burning equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Central Ukraine: Missile group (up to 10) towards Myrhorod district, then passing Poltava towards Kremenchuk. New missile group from Sumy Oblast also moved towards Poltava Oblast. Another group from Cherkasy Oblast diverted, heading westward into Vinnytsia Oblast. Kryvyi Rih reports "situation controlled." TASS claims RF forces used FABs against UAF reserve positions in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovets Oblast. New threat of strike UAVs for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi districts). UAV reported on Poltava Oblast, heading southwest. Threat of enemy strike UAVs in Zolotoniskyi and Cherkaskyi districts of Cherkasy Oblast. One fatality in Vinnytsia from 16 July strike. Explosions in Kropyvnytskyi and Kryvyi Rih amid ballistic missile threat. Kirovohrad Oblast attacked by ballistic missiles. Nikopol district attacked by artillery, MLRS "Grad," and FPV drones. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih. Missile danger for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi district) and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of aviation munitions use in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Чернігівська, Полтавська області - ракетна небезпека! (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports over two dozen attacks in Nikopol district throughout the day. RBC-Україна reports an infrastructure object damaged due to a drone hit. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports 8 enemy UAVs were shot down overnight. Operatyvnyi ZSU publishes multiple photo messages showing consequences of enemy strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports 10 school buses dispatched to communities. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports enemy activity in Nikopol district, including artillery, FPV drones, and munitions dropped from UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poltava Oblast: Enemy UAVs from Sumy Oblast are entering northeastern Poltava Oblast, heading southwest. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports threat lifted for Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Western Ukraine: Cruise missiles confirmed from Vinnytsia Oblast to Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Main group entered Ternopil Oblast, Chernivtsi Oblast (AD engaging, 4 fatalities confirmed), and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast (explosions, damage, casualties). Kinzhal hypersonic missile launched from MiG-31K tracked towards Starokostiantyniv, then Ternopil/Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts, with confirmed explosions and casualties. Three Shahed UAVs approaching Ivano-Frankivsk reported intercepted. Damage to kindergarten and university in Lviv. Damaged residential buildings (20 private homes) in Kamianets-Podilskyi district, Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports a conflict occurred between TCC personnel and local residents. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volyn Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports a French Mirage 2000 fighter jet crashed due to technical malfunction; pilot ejected successfully. Alex Parker Returns reports an F-16 was shot down in Rivne Oblast; pilot ejected, a conflicting claim. Colonelcassad publishes photo messages regarding the French Mirage 2000 crash, claiming it's the first loss over Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Romania: RBC-Ukraine reports Romania is forming a voluntary contract army. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Southern Ukraine: New Shahed UAVs detected in Black Sea, heading towards Pivdenne/Koblevo (8 inbound). RF strike on Vasylivskyi district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulted in 2 fatalities, 1 wounded. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reports 14 UAVs shot down. Missile threat active for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF 44th Artillery Brigade successfully targeted an RF 2A65 Msta-B. Colonelcassad claims missile strike on Ukrainian gas platform in Black Sea. TASS reports parts of a downed UAF UAV fell on a kindergarten and Ministry of Emergency Situations in Berdyansk. Launches of KABs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast confirmed. UAV threat for Kherson, Zaporizhzhia (Nikopolskyi district), and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts from the south. 4 new Shahed UAVs from Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Pavlohrad. New groups of Shahed UAVs from Black Sea heading towards Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts. Odesa Oblast AD engaged 10 Shahed UAVs over Black Sea; 12 Shahed UAVs confirmed approaching Odesa from the sea. Explosions heard in Odesa. CONFIRMED CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE IN ODESA DUE TO RF UAV ATTACK. One fatality in Odesa due to the attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson Oblast: Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 4 Russian army assaults. TASS reports on Russian Group "Dnepr" UAV calculation with FPV drones destroying a Ukrainian D-20 howitzer. RBC-Ukraine reports RF drone attack injured two children. ASTRA reports two fatalities and two wounded due to RF attack on civilian vehicle. SBU reported заочно suspicion to five Russian generals who commanded shelling of the right bank of Kherson Oblast. Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 provides tactical analysis with photo messages regarding operations in Kherson direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Ballistic missile threat alert issued. RF attacked Polohivskyi district. Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports Russian aviation conducted over 8 airstrikes on enemy positions in the Orikhiv sector. РБК-Україна reports an anti-drone tunnel has been built on an important frontline highway. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Air raid alert lifted for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: ASTRA publishes multiple photo messages and video showing firefighters extinguishing a blaze in Mykolaiv Oblast following RF drone and artillery attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Gas Facilities (Black Sea): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Temporary flight restrictions at Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky airports have been lifted. Restrictions also lifted at Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, and Kaluga airports. RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight. Falling UAV debris on railway station in Rostov Oblast delayed over 50 passenger trains. Fire at Kamianolomni railway station, Rostov Oblast confirmed. Belgorod governor reports 2 civilian injuries from UAF UAV attack. Flooding reported in Moscow streets. Fires reported in Rostov and Moscow oblasts after UAV hits. TASS reports a Moldovan national detained in Ryazan confessed to transmitting data on RF Armed Forces to Kyiv. TASS reports a man detained in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD facilities. TASS reports RF MoD claims 14 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kaluga, Bryansk, Tula, and Oryol Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov-on-Don: TASS reports a UAV attack was repelled in Rostov-on-Don, Millerovo, Donetsk (Rostov Oblast), and Azov district. Оперативний ЗСУ and ASTRA report UAV attacks on Novocherkassk railway station and Novocherkassk GRES. ASTRA confirms a railway crossing closure and traffic jam in Novocherkassk. TASS reports three people injured in Novocherkassk due to UAV attack. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno publishes imagery and information about alleged damage to enemy logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tula Oblast: TASS reports RF air defense destroyed three Ukrainian UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Samara Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports a drone attack on Samara Oblast, RF. ASTRA provides video confirming the Novosuybyshevsk oil refinery fire after a UAV attack. MoD Russia video reports servicemen of the Central MD's special operations formation practiced sabotage actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Bryansk Oblast: Брянская область. Губернатор reports "nine more" Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) AV БогомаZ reports that civilians were injured as a result of "treacherous strikes by Ukronazis." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Two Mayors reports information from Bryansk Oblast governor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow: TASS reports the death of Irina Podnosova, the Chairman of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation. TASS reports Putin expressed condolences. Severe urban flooding. News of new COVID-19 variant "Stratus" spreading. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Crimea: Colonelcassad reports Sevastopol air raid alarm. Два майора reports attack on Crimea amidst Istanbul talks. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports "DVIZHUKHA" in Crimea. TASS reports six UAVs destroyed over Sevastopol. RF sources (ASTRA, Colonelcassad) confirm six UAVs shot down near annexed Sevastopol: 3 over Kacha field, 3 over sea. Air raid alert in Sevastopol has been lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia claims 16 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over the Black Sea and Crimea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports Ukraine is attacking Crimea with drones "against the backdrop of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • FSB Activity: FSB reports it thwarted activities of three suspects aiding Ukrainian special services. FSB detained an SBU agent in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast who set up a cache with UAV parts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes video of FSB operations in DNR and Yaroslavl Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Media Raids: Police and OMON conducted searches at "Baza" publication's editorial office. TASS reports the chief editor of Telegram channel Baza, Gleb Trifonov, was arrested. Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 confirms Baza editor arrested until September 20. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Law on Extremist Materials: TASS reports State Duma adopted law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. Putin discussed this law with Volodin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • POW Return: TASS reports that two RF servicemen in need of medical attention have been returned from Ukrainian-controlled territory. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video features a Russian marine complaining about his new life after losing a leg. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Financial Sector: TASS reports the Central Bank is considering lowering the key interest rate. TASS reports the digital ruble and universal QR code will be widely implemented. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF State Duma: ASTRA reports State Duma Deputy Mikhail Tarasenko voted 11 times on the day of his death, suggesting potential proxy voting. TASS reports Putin signed a law where forced labor becomes a separate type of punishment. TASS photo messages confirm Putin has granted Belarusian citizens permanently residing in Russia the right to participate in local elections. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Drone Production: TASS reports that Russian fiber-optic FPV drone production has increased to "tens of thousands per month," 750 km from the Ukrainian border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kurk Oblast: TASS reports that Kurskers whose homes were affected by Ukrainian Armed Forces attacks after August 6, 2024, will receive regional payments of 195,000 rubles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sumy Oblast: RF conducted a strike on Sumy community's Kovpakivskyi district. Two explosions heard, likely from KABs, impacting residential area and causing damage to apartment building. Three injured, now increased to 12. Emergency services on site. 5 multi-story buildings, a shopping center, and 18 cars damaged. Threat of aviation munitions for Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. Colonelcassad reports "Anvar" unit operating in the border areas of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports launches of guided aerial bombs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy Direction: "Два майора" publishes FPV drone footage claiming to target a UAF soldier. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes photo messages showing a tactical map for the Sumy direction. Colonelcassad publishes a drone video of the Sumy direction, showing military vehicles. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the 210th Separate Assault Regiment used drones to destroy a well-hidden dugout. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Podolnyy ZOV edition publishes video claiming FPV drone operators of "Ussuriysk formation" destroy dozens of AFU equipment daily in Sumy Oblast, disrupting logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Varachino, Sumy Oblast: Операция Z and "Воин DV" claim Russian army liberated Varachino. Рыбарь reports "Severians" liberated the village of Varachino. TASS reports UAF lost units of two elite brigades and an assault regiment. MoD Russia claims units of Sever Group of Forces liberated Varachino. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Istanbul Negotiations: RBC-Ukraine reports Zelenskyy will insist on an immediate ceasefire. Ukrainian delegation has arrived. TASS reports RF delegation has arrived. TASS reports Turkish Foreign Minister, Intelligence Chief, and Chief of General Staff will attend. RBC-Ukraine video reports Head of Ukrainian delegation Umierov arrived. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS, Dnevnik Десантника🇷🇺, and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm bilateral meeting between heads of RF and UA delegations (Medinsky and Umerov) in Ciragan Palace. RBC-Ukraine and Оперативний ЗСУ later state that the "tete-a-tete" meeting between Umerov and Medinsky did not occur. Colonelcassad indicates the one-on-one meeting took place as before, with a delegation meeting to follow on agreed issues. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Conflicting reports on specific meeting format) TASS reports that full delegation talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul have begun. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zelenskyy has outlined negotiation topics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine, TASS, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Басурин о главном, STERNENKO, Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) all report that negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have begun in Istanbul. STERNENKO and Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) provide video evidence of the formal setting and participants. TASS reports that the negotiations are being held in a closed-door session. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Turkey's Foreign Minister Fidan stated the goal of the negotiations is the earliest possible end to the conflict and that Turkey has the necessary infrastructure to monitor a ceasefire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zelenskyy stated that Russia and Ukraine are actively working on the next phase of prisoner exchanges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Ukraine General: Night operations provide low visibility, favoring RF UAV and missile saturation tactics. Kharkiv Oblast expects worsening weather (heavy rains, thunderstorms). Crane collapse in Kyiv due to strong winds/storm. Severe flooding in Odesa due to heavy rain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Heavy rainfall and flooding in Moscow. Mudslide in Kabardino-Balkaria. Drought impacting Donbas, leading to water shortages. Hurricane (storm) noticed by residents of Belosaraiskaya Kosa, indicating a weather event in the Sea of Azov coastal area. Downpour with hail hit DNR, especially Makeevka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF:

  • Air Defense (AD): Fully engaged nationwide against multi-vector RF aerial assault. President Zelenskyy reports UAF AD destroyed over 20 missiles and the "overwhelming majority" of drones (344 of 623 total aerial targets). Germany to provide 5 Patriot systems and ammunition, though delays expected until Spring 2026. Czechia will help strengthen AD for drone combat. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України video shows drone operators of the 77th Separate Airmobile Brigade destroying Starlinks, antennas, equipment, dugouts, and personnel on the Lyman direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO provides video of Lancet destruction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ provides video of UAF targeting and mine laying operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes video showcasing the Ukrainian "Bulava" drone, presented as a counter to the Russian "Lancet" drone, demonstrating its capabilities against military equipment. This indicates continued UAF innovation in drone warfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Services: DSNS are actively engaged across multiple oblasts for rescue, firefighting, and damage assessment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Control Measures: Nationwide air raid alerts lifted, localized drone alerts persist. Public warnings for shelter ongoing. Ukraine plans to open four new embassies. Zelenskyy states new negotiations with Russia planned for Wednesday in Istanbul. Zelenskyy signed a decree on immediate audit of state expenditures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Security Services: SBU and OGP conducting special operations to "neutralize Russian influence on NABU." The controversial NABU/SAP law continues to be a point of contention, with international partners expressing concern and Zelenskyy promising a new bill to strengthen anti-corruption institutions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports Zelenskyy will submit presidential bill to Rada to preserve independence of anti-corruption bodies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports Rada will urgently convene next week over the new NABU/SAP law. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko states that "people had the right to protest, but the Russians were waiting for this." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Foreign Volunteers: 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" claims 2,000 Colombians fighting in its ranks. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video shows Belarusian volunteers of the Kalinouski Regiment destroying an enemy tank in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Resource Requirements: Urgent and sustained supply of AD systems (especially Patriot), EW systems, drones, and artillery ammunition. Significant funding gaps persist. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Spiegel reports that Patriot systems for Ukraine are delayed until Spring 2026. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Training: UAF continues rigorous training for tank crews, sergeants, and young officers (71st Separate Jaeger Brigade). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Losses: General Staff of UAF provides estimated total combat losses for RF. Serhiy Syrskyi states that at least 80,000 Russian military personnel have been killed or wounded during the Kursk operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Domestic Production: Domestic 155-mm Bohdana-BG howitzers have entered service. Ukraine has signed 4 contracts for drone interceptor production totaling over 3 billion UAH. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Robot Medevac: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes a video demonstrating the 5th Separate Assault Kyiv Brigade using a ground robot for medical evacuation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security Event: RBC-Ukraine reports the commander of the National Police assault brigade "Lyut" (Rage), Maksym Kazban, died in a traffic accident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatsia Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes video claiming SBU head stated "half of National Guard laid down arms, other half wanted to go to Kyiv" after searches of NGU commander. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF Propaganda) Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims a Ukrainian border guard fled to Hungary, abandoning weapon at post. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF Propaganda, but potential indicator of personnel issues)
  • Northern Command Reassignment: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that leadership of defense in Northern Ukraine has been transferred to Operational Command "West," commanded by Brigadier General Volodymyr Shvedyuk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Corruption Audit: Zelenskyy signed a decree about an immediate audit of state expenditures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine provides photo message of new Zelenskyy decree text. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Third Separate Assault Brigade: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video footage showing soldiers of the Third Separate Assault Brigade under fire, assessing damages and casualties, indicating active engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cultural Resilience: RBC-Ukraine reports that fencer Vlada Kharkova won the World Championship 2025, an event that can serve as a morale boost for the nation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• RUF:

  • Deep Operations (UAV/Missile/Aviation Munitions): RF maintains a high capability for widespread, high-volume, multi-vector aerial assault (Tu-95MS strategic bombers, Kinzhal from MiG-31K, massed Shahed drones). Confirmed use of FAB-3000 M-54 guided bomb in Kharkiv. Continued use of KABs against Sumy, Dobropillia, and Kramatorsk. RF is targeting Ukrainian internal security infrastructure (police departments) in Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia video showcases UAVs leaving no chances to enemy troops. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo claims Iskander strikes reduced personnel of GUR (Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence) and mercenaries. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF Propaganda, unverified claim).
  • Tactical Drone Capabilities: RF continues effective tactical integration of FPV drones for precision engagements against artillery, armored vehicles, and personnel. Reported increase in fiber-optic FPV drone production to "tens of thousands per month." Development of new anti-drone systems from Rostec and "Shadow" frequency detectors. MoD Russia publishes video showing FPV drone operators of the "West" grouping destroying a Ukrainian "Akatsiya" self-propelled howitzer in Kharkiv Oblast. Kadyrov_95 video demonstrates Akhmat special forces FPV drone strike on a UAF dugout. Narodnaya militsiya DNR video of "Shadow" detector testing confirms RF deployment of advanced drone detection equipment. Podolnyy ZOV edition claims one FPV drone operator achieved 30th "Baba Yaga" drone kill. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare: RF continues aggressive information operations, exploiting internal Ukrainian issues (NABU/SAP protests, mobilization tensions), leveraging foreign political figures, and controlling its domestic information space. "Maidan" narrative pushed regarding protests. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns expresses belief that new RF laws are preparing for a "grand traitorous deal" to "preemptively curb discontent" from concessions to Ukrainians, which will be declared a "victory". (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Analyst's assessment of RF intent) TASS reports that Obama instructed intelligence to include claims of Trump's support for the Russian Federation in the 2017 report, citing Fox News. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - RF Information Operation) Воин DV publishes video asking "Why do anti-corruption rallies in Ukraine gather tens of thousands, but the demands of families of fallen soldiers remain voiceless?", indicating a narrative focused on internal Ukrainian discontent and perceived inequalities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Рыбарь posts a video titled "Our Black Russians" ("Наши чернорусы"), which depicts Black women in what appears to be a student dormitory. This is a subtle attempt to normalize or highlight ethnic diversity within Russia, potentially aimed at counteracting Western narratives about Russian isolation or internal issues. The relevance to military operations is indirect, aiming to shape the information environment. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Colonelcassad posts video of "Rubicon" combat groups for air defense, showcasing drone footage, including 'FLYEYE' and 'SHARK-M' drones, and potential target identification. This is likely a propaganda piece intended to highlight RF counter-UAS capabilities and reconnaissance efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a video about an alleged assault by Uzbek citizens in Moscow Oblast against a deaf-mute man, framing it to stoke anti-migrant sentiment and internal discontent in Russia, referencing "Pypa" (a derogatory term for Putin) and "unreplaceable specialists" (migrants). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns also publishes photo messages about a "Sberbank Islamic branch" refusing service to a Muscovite, implying creeping Islamization or societal changes in Russia, again with a jab at Putin ("Pypa, results"). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" responds to the Alex Parker Returns video on migrants, dismissing it as "populist" and countering it with official Russian investigative committee statistics on crimes, aiming to control internal narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on Microsoft accusing Chinese hackers of breaching a US nuclear agency, indicating continued global cyber activity and its potential impact on strategic stability, though not directly tied to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Maneuver Capability: RF forces conducted company-sized mechanized assaults northwest of Avdiivka, demonstrating improved coordination. Continued localized ground advances in Donetsk Oblast (Hrushevske, Novotoretske, Komar, Nikolaevka, Oleksandrovgrad, Dyliiivka, Karlivka, Leonidiivka, Torske) and Sumy Oblast (Varachino). Воин DV video shows destruction of a "Snatch" Land Rover armored vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad photo message "Успехи под Купянском" indicates continued RF focus and potential advances in Kupyansk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes video showing drone footage of possible RF reconnaissance in a fortified position, indicating ongoing tactical probing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Exercise: TASS publishes video of the Russian Navy conducting "July Storm" operational exercises, involving over 150 ships, 120 aircraft, 10 coastal missile systems, and 15,000 military personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Activity: RF invited President of Egypt to Russian-Arab forum in October. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS video shows Deputy Chief of General Staff of Russian Armed Forces Kostyukov arriving at Ciragan Palace for Istanbul negotiations. Colonelcassad confirms Kostyukov's arrival. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, Operativnyi ZSU confirm Medinsky-Umerov bilateral meeting in Istanbul, though RBC-Ukraine and Operativnyi ZSU later contradict the "tete-a-tete" aspect. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Басурин о главном confirms bilateral negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations have begun at Ciragan Palace in Istanbul. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) НгП раZVедка (Turkish sources) reports Medinsky and Umerov are holding a one-on-one meeting before the negotiations begin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad, and Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) all release videos showing various stages of the Istanbul negotiations, including a trilateral meeting with Turkey's Foreign Minister Fidan, and the full delegation talks. These are likely aimed at shaping the domestic and international perception of RF's diplomatic engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Dissension: Igor Strelkov comments on the RF "system" being "overwhelmed by a mass of 'bottomless mediocrities' in key positions," and states the system is "blind, deaf, and powerless" because it "devoured itself." This suggests growing internal criticism of military and governmental effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews makes a cynical comment that "TCC could fulfill the weekly plan in a couple of hours," likely a jab at the Ukrainian mobilization efforts, but also highlighting internal Russian perceptions of Ukrainian manpower issues. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF Information Operation/Opinion).
  • RF Ministry of Defense: MoD Russia provides video footage purporting to show a Ukrainian serviceman surrendering, likely for propaganda purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security: ASTRA reports the Interior Ministry has placed the widow of a soldier with the call sign "Goodwin," who was sent on a suicidal assault for criticizing Colonel Puzik, on a wanted list. This suggests internal disciplinary issues and attempts to suppress dissent within RF military families. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cyber Attacks: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on Chinese hackers accused by Microsoft of breaching a US nuclear agency, indicating a broader cyber threat landscape not directly related to the Ukraine conflict but relevant to global cybersecurity and potential state-sponsored activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Persistent Deep Strike Capacity: RF maintains high capability for widespread, multi-vector aerial assault using strategic bombers (Tu-95MS), hypersonic missiles (Kinzhal from MiG-31K), and massed Shahed drones. First confirmed use of FAB-3000 M-54. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Adaptive Precision Targeting: RF continues to adapt its targeting, evidenced by strikes on Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility, use of KABs, and targeting of Ukrainian internal security infrastructure (police departments in Kharkiv). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Enhanced Tactical Drone Integration: Increasingly sophisticated FPV drone capabilities for precision strikes (artillery, armored vehicles, personnel). Significant increase in fiber-optic FPV drone production (tens of thousands/month). Development and deployment of new counter-UAS systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Limited Ground Maneuver and Infiltration: Capabilities for localized ground advances and deep infiltration by special groups, particularly observed in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts (e.g., Varachino, Novotoretske, Komar, Nikolaevka, Pokrovsk, Kupyansk), supported by heavy fire (TOS-1A, Msta-S). Recent engagements confirm RF forces are conducting probing operations and advancing on several axes in Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare Dominance: Highly adaptive and pervasive information warfare apparatus capable of rapid narrative dissemination, exploiting Ukrainian internal issues, and leveraging foreign political discourse. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Long-term Military Investment: Projecting $1.1 trillion USD rearmament plan by 2036. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Intentions:
  • Degrade Ukrainian Combat Potential and Civilian Morale: Continue high-volume missile and drone attacks to exhaust AD, disrupt logistics, and inflict civilian casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sustain Ground Pressure and Achieve Localized Gains: Continue ground advances across key axes, particularly Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts, to expand occupied territory. Shift to mechanized assaults on Pokrovsk suggests intent for deeper breakthroughs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Disrupt Ukrainian Governance and International Support: Amplify internal Ukrainian political and social tensions (e.g., NABU/SAP protests, mobilization issues) through information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Enhance Domestic Military Industrial Complex: Committed to expanding domestic defense production, especially UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Prepare for Diplomatic Leverage: Continued engagement in Istanbul negotiations, likely with an intent to leverage battlefield successes for a more favorable political resolution or to sow dissent/fatigue within Ukraine and among its partners. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• First FAB-3000 Deployment: Operational use of FAB-3000 M-54 UMPK in Kharkiv AO, increasing destructive power against fortified positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Shift to Mechanized Assaults (Pokrovsk): Transition from dismounted infantry to company-sized mechanized assaults, indicating a more coordinated and potentially effective ground offensive approach. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Increased Fiber-Optic FPV Drone Production: Scaling production to "tens of thousands per month" signifies a major escalation in tactical precision strike capabilities with reduced EW vulnerability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Targeting of Ukrainian Internal Security Infrastructure: Direct strikes on police departments in Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Adaptive Counter-UAS Measures: Development and deployment of new anti-drone systems (Rostec, Shadow detectors). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Leveraging Penal System for Recruitment: Recruitment of individuals involved in serious criminal cases. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Exploiting Internal Ukrainian Protests: Actively using Ukrainian protests against the NABU/SAP law in their information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Intensified Diplomacy: Active participation in Istanbul negotiations at a high level, suggesting intent to shape future conflict trajectory through political means. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Munitions Supply: High capacity for sustained, large-volume production and deployment of UAVs, missiles, and guided bombs. Robust and growing domestic supply chain for tactical assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Fuel/Energy: Continues to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Internal RF energy infrastructure vulnerable to UAF drone attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Transportation: Continued utilization of railways for troop and material movement. Internal railway disruptions due to UAF drone attacks can temporarily impact logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Personnel/Recruitment: Relies on conventional and unconventional recruitment methods, suggesting continued demand. Internal dissent and criticism from milbloggers like Strelkov regarding "mediocrities" in leadership may indicate underlying personnel quality issues despite recruitment efforts. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) The report of the Ministry of Interior placing a soldier's widow on a wanted list for criticizing a colonel suggests internal issues with dissent and morale within the military or its support networks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• Centralized Planning and Coordination: Multi-vector, simultaneous aerial assaults indicate effective high-level planning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Tactical Flexibility: Units demonstrate ability to adapt tactics on the ground (e.g., mechanized assaults), implying responsive tactical command. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Information Control: Strict control over domestic information environment, using legal measures and propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Security Operations: FSB operations demonstrate effective internal security C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Potential for Friction: Appeals from RF milbloggers for FPV drones and Starlink suggest some tactical unit resource constraints or C2 limitations at lower levels. Criticism from Strelkov regarding "mediocrities" in leadership could suggest deeper C2 issues, although this is a long-standing critique. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Air Defense (AD) Posture: Remains highly engaged, intercepting significant numbers of RF aerial targets. Critical international support is ongoing, but projected delays in Patriot system delivery are a significant concern. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ground Forces Posture: Primarily defensive, repelling numerous RF assaults on key axes. Demonstrated effective counter-battery fire and tactical drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Tactical Drone Integration: Continues to demonstrate effective tactical drone integration for reconnaissance, targeting, and kinetic effects. Innovative use of ground robots for medical evacuation. Development and showcasing of new offensive drone capabilities (Bulava). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Training and Personnel: Ongoing rigorous training for various units. Integration of convicts raises concerns regarding discipline and cohesion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Security and Governance: Actively investigating corruption and countering Russian influence operations. Controversial NABU/SAP law is a significant internal and international concern, actively being addressed by presidential initiative and parliamentary action. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Humanitarian and Civilian Support: Local authorities and emergency services remain engaged in rescue, recovery, and support efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:
  • Successful AD Engagements: Continued high interception rates of RF aerial targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Effective Counter-Battery Fire: Successful targeting and destruction of high-value RF artillery and radar systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Successful Tactical Drone Operations: Achieved kinetic effects against RF personnel, vehicles, and C2 nodes. Demonstrated new offensive drone systems (Bulava). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Repulsed RF Ground Assaults: Prevented major breakthroughs on most axes despite numerous assaults. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Innovative Battlefield Solutions: Deployment of ground robots for medical evacuation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Infrastructure Protection: Construction of anti-drone tunnel on key frontline highway. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Political Response to Internal Concerns: Swift presidential response and upcoming Rada session on NABU/SAP law. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Engagement: President Zelenskyy met with the Israeli Foreign Minister, discussing cooperation and air defense reinforcement. Active participation in Istanbul negotiations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Morale Boost: Ukrainian fencer's World Championship victory provides a significant morale boost. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • International Support (Sweden): Sweden preparing a new, powerful defense package for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Setbacks:
  • Continued Civilian Casualties and Infrastructure Damage: Persistent and widespread RF aerial attacks, including first FAB-3000 deployment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Localized Ground Advances: Confirmed RF advances in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Delayed Patriot Deliveries: Projected delays until Spring 2026. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security and Governance Concerns: NABU/SAP law controversy impacts international trust, despite current political action. RF information operations attempting to exploit these issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Loss of Combat Commanders: Death of Maksym Kazban, National Police assault brigade commander. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Propaganda Exploitation of Internal Issues: RF actively exploiting NABU/SAP protests and claiming defections from Ukrainian border guard and National Guard. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Critical Needs: Air Defense Systems and Ammunition (especially Patriot), Electronic Warfare (EW) Systems, Drones and Counter-Drone Capabilities, Artillery Ammunition and Armored Vehicles, and Logistical Support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Constraints: Limited Domestic Production Capacity, Funding Gaps, International Aid Delays (e.g., Patriot until 2026), Manpower Strain, and Corruption Concerns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Propaganda: Active promotion of "new Maidan" narrative to portray Ukrainian instability (e.g., protests against NABU/SAP law), claims of Western indifference, amplification of Ukrainian corruption and incompetence narratives, glorification of RF military, normalization of life in Russia, and foreign influence operations (e.g., leveraging Trump). New narrative attempting to portray internal conflict within Ukrainian National Guard and defections of border guards. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF milbloggers framing new RF laws as preparing for a "grand traitorous deal" by Putin, aiming to preemptively manage domestic dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF is reporting civilian casualties in Bryansk Oblast due to Ukrainian strikes, framing them as "treacherous." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia is disseminating videos of alleged Ukrainian POWs surrendering, likely for demoralization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF channels are attempting to sow internal discord in Ukraine by highlighting anti-corruption protests and questioning why families of fallen soldiers aren't also protesting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF media is subtly promoting narratives of internal stability and "normalization" within Russia, even through seemingly unrelated content like student dormitory videos, while also stoking xenophobia with reports of migrant crime. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Ukrainian Counter-Propaganda: Highlighting RF casualties and atrocities, showcasing UAF effectiveness and resilience, promoting international support, addressing internal issues transparently, and emphasizing humanitarian efforts. Showcasing Ukrainian sporting achievements as a source of national pride. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukraine: Resilience amidst attacks, but tension over mobilization, strong public concern over anti-corruption reforms (NABU/SAP protests), and dire humanitarian situation in frontline cities (Kramatorsk evacuations). The ongoing protests against the NABU/SAP law signal significant public dissatisfaction with perceived corruption, which RF is actively exploiting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Ukrainian sporting success (fencing world championship) provides a positive morale boost. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Heavily managed information environment, underlying internal security concerns (arrests related to aiding Ukraine, media raids), economic impacts framed by state media, potential recruitment challenges, and exploitation of Ukrainian internal divisions for domestic consumption. Growing domestic concern among some milblogger circles regarding potential diplomatic "betrayal" at Istanbul talks. Igor Strelkov's public criticism of RF leadership suggests a segment of the nationalist-military community is becoming increasingly disillusioned with the conflict's management. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Reports of internal crackdowns on dissent within military families (soldier's widow wanted list) indicate efforts to control narratives and potential discontent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Support for Ukraine: Continued military aid pledges and deliveries (Germany, Norway, Netherlands, Canada). High-level diplomatic engagement (Zelenskyy meeting with Erdogan, Israeli MFA visit). Strong concerns from G7, OECD, Germany, and France regarding NABU/SAP law, but ongoing Ukrainian political efforts to address this. Ongoing international legal action against RF proxy forces. Potential for post-war troop stationing by some European partners. France has specifically expressed concern that the NABU/SAP law contradicts Ukraine's EU accession policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zelenskyy's meeting with Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar focused on defense cooperation and strengthening Ukrainian air defense, signaling continued diplomatic outreach for support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Sweden is preparing a new, powerful defense package for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Diplomatic Activity: Participation in Istanbul negotiations, with an active effort to control the narrative surrounding the meetings. Outreach to non-Western partners (DPRK, Egypt, Afghanistan). Sanctions countermeasures against EU representatives. Use of state media to influence international narratives. Full delegation talks between Russia and Ukraine have commenced in Istanbul, signaling the next phase of diplomatic engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Turkey's mediation efforts are highlighted by RF state media, emphasizing Turkey's role in facilitating talks and potentially monitoring a ceasefire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

1. Sustained Deep Strike Campaign: RF will continue high-volume, multi-vector missile and UAV attacks targeting critical civilian infrastructure, military-industrial facilities, and urban centers across Ukraine, including the likely continued use of FAB-3000s in specific tactical locations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
   • INDICATORS: Continued air raid alerts, high numbers of intercepted aerial targets, persistent reports of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, confirmed deployment of FAB-3000s in new AOs.
2. Increased Ground Pressure on Donetsk and Sumy Axes: RF will continue localized ground assaults, intensifying efforts around Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, Kramatorsk, and Varachino. The shift to mechanized assaults on Pokrovsk suggests an attempt to achieve deeper tactical penetrations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
   • INDICATORS: Continued reports of RF ground advances in these areas, increased commitment of armored vehicles, and UAF reporting of repelled assaults.
3. Intensified Hybrid Operations, Focusing on Internal Divides: RF will escalate information operations exploiting internal Ukrainian political issues (NABU/SAP protests, mobilization issues) and perceived Western fatigue, as well as attempting to sow distrust within Ukrainian military and security forces. RF media will continue to disseminate domestic narratives aimed at controlling public opinion and deflecting internal criticism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
   • INDICATORS: Increased RF media focus on Ukrainian internal protests and National Guard narratives, amplification of negative Western commentary, continued use of POW testimonies, and increased domestic propaganda on internal Russian social/economic issues.
4. Domestic Drone Production Scaling and Counter-UAS Deployment: RF will prioritize and accelerate domestic production of advanced tactical drones, especially fiber-optic FPVs, and continue to deploy new counter-UAS systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
   • INDICATORS: Continued public statements about UAV development, showcasing of new drone systems, and reports of increased FPV drone usage, as well as reported captures of new RF EW/counter-drone equipment.
5. Limited Diplomatic Progress in Istanbul: While negotiations are ongoing, a major breakthrough is unlikely in the immediate term. RF will likely use the talks to signal willingness for dialogue while maintaining military pressure, aiming to gain leverage or sow discord among Ukrainian partners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
   • INDICATORS: Continued high-intensity fighting on the ground despite diplomatic engagement, focus on specific, limited agreements (e.g., POW exchanges) rather than comprehensive peace, and continued RF information operations framing negotiation outcomes.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

1. Strategic Air Campaign Shift on a Single City: RF could concentrate a sustained barrage on one or two major urban centers or critical infrastructure nodes using FAB-3000s, Kinzhals, and massed Shaheds, aiming for psychological effect and system collapse. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
   • INDICATORS: Unusually high concentration of inbound aerial targets towards a single metropolitan area, strategic targets previously unhit being targeted, or a prolonged attack cycle with minimal pauses.
2. Decisive Breakthrough on Pokrovsk Axis with Reserve Commitment: RF could commit significant multi-battalion forces, including operational reserves, to achieve a decisive breakthrough on the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka axis, aiming to cut off vital supply routes and isolate key UAF concentrations. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
   • INDICATORS: Large-scale, sustained ground assaults involving multiple RF brigades/divisions, heavy commitment of RF armor and artillery, confirmed significant RF territorial gains, or reports of UAF forces being encircled or forced into major tactical withdrawals.
3. Escalated Hybrid Operations with Direct Impact on International Support: RF could conduct significant cyberattacks on critical infrastructure of key international partners or stage false-flag operations to disrupt aid shipments or discredit Ukrainian leadership, leading to a significant reduction in international support. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
   • INDICATORS: High-impact cyberattacks on Western critical infrastructure, credible intelligence of RF involvement in sabotage outside Ukraine, or sudden shifts in public or political support for Ukraine in key Western nations.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Next 24-72 Hours: Continued intense RF aerial attacks nationwide, especially central and eastern Ukraine, with high probability of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Ground pressure high on Donetsk and Sumy axes. Istanbul negotiations likely without major peace breakthrough, but will provide insight into RF strategic intentions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Decision Point (UAF): Re-evaluate AD asset allocation based on attack effectiveness and damage severity.
  • Decision Point (UAF): Commit strategic reserves to Pokrovsk if mechanized assaults show greater effectiveness.
• Next 1-2 Weeks: RF will consolidate gains and prepare for further localized offensives. Pace of aerial attacks will remain significant. Internal Ukrainian debates regarding NABU/SAP law will continue, amplified by RF, but with potential for progress due to presidential and parliamentary action. International partners will closely assess impact on future aid. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Decision Point (International Partners): Outcome of NABU/SAP controversy will influence future financial and institutional support.
• Next 1-3 Months: RF will continue long-term military modernization and industrial expansion. High pace of conflict, attritional ground warfare, deep strike campaigns. Potential for increased RF pressure on Kharkiv axis. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Decision Point (UAF): Strategic decisions on troop mobilization, domestic defense production ramp-up, and diplomatic efforts to secure long-term aid commitments.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

1. RF FAB-3000 Production & Deployment:
   • Gap: Precise inventory, production rate, and logistical chain for FAB-3000 M-54 and associated UMPK kits. Specific launch platforms beyond Su-34, and their operational limitations.
   • Collection Requirements: SIGINT on RF aviation units suspected of FAB-3000 deployment. IMINT/GEOINT on airfields in Belgorod/Voronezh Oblasts for FAB-3000 storage or loading operations. HUMINT on RF defense industrial complex capabilities.
2. RF Ground Force Composition and Intentions (Pokrovsk Axis):
   • Gap: Full unit composition, strength, and C2 structure of RF mechanized groupings on the Pokrovsk Axis, particularly confirming the elements and sustained operational tempo of the 76th VDV Division. Specific objectives and timelines for their offensive operations beyond initial probing.
   • Collection Requirements: ISR (UAV, satellite, ground reconnaissance) for detailed Order of Battle (OB) on Pokrovsk Axis. SIGINT on RF tactical communications to detect command intentions and movement orders. HUMINT from captured personnel.
3. RF Tactical Drone Strategy and EW Capabilities:
   • Gap: Detailed information on the specific types and capabilities of newly developed RF anti-drone systems (e.g., "Shadow" detector) and their operational deployment. The full scale and effectiveness of RF's fiber-optic FPV drone production and deployment, including tactical employment doctrine.
   • Collection Requirements: Technical Intelligence (TECHINT) on captured RF drones and EW systems. SIGINT to identify new EW frequencies or capabilities. HUMINT from RF drone operators.
4. RF Internal Stability and Public Sentiment on Negotiations:
   • Gap: Deeper understanding of the actual impact of anti-corruption campaigns and new laws on Russian public sentiment and elite cohesion, particularly regarding the Istanbul negotiations. Extent of potential internal dissent or opposition to ongoing military recruitment and potential diplomatic concessions.
   • Collection Requirements: OSINT monitoring of Russian social media and regional news beyond state-controlled channels, specifically tracking discourse related to the Istanbul talks and government actions and critical milblogger commentary. HUMINT on internal political dynamics and public mood.
5. Impact of NABU/SAP Law on International Aid:
   • Gap: Specific mechanisms and criteria that international partners (G7, OECD, Germany, France) will use to evaluate Ukraine's anti-corruption efforts and how these will directly influence future military and financial aid packages, especially given Zelenskyy's recent actions and the ongoing protests.
   • Collection Requirements: OSINT monitoring of statements from international bodies and foreign governments. Diplomatic engagement and reporting from Ukrainian missions abroad on specific conditionalities.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize Air Defense Augmentation & Hardening: Immediately activate all available international diplomatic channels to expedite the delivery of promised Patriot systems and interceptor missiles. Lobby for direct transfers from European partners' existing stocks, with guarantees of rapid backfill by the US. Simultaneously, enhance passive air defense measures, focusing on hardening critical civilian and military infrastructure against FAB-3000 impacts and improving dispersal of C2 nodes.
2. Strengthen Tactical EW & Counter-Drone Capabilities: Identify and procure high-priority EW systems, as requested by frontline units, to counter RF drone and ELINT capabilities. Accelerate domestic production and distribution of UAF-specific counter-drone solutions, including both kinetic and electronic measures. Task intelligence assets to specifically target and analyze newly identified RF anti-drone technologies. Prioritize testing and rapid deployment of newly developed Ukrainian offensive drones like "Bulava."
3. Enhance Anti-Armor Defenses (Pokrovsk Axis): Pre-position additional ATGM teams, FPV drone units with anti-armor warheads, and scatterable mine systems in depth along potential RF mechanized avenues of approach on the Pokrovsk axis. Develop and implement a layered defense plan to absorb and mitigate large-scale RF mechanized assaults.
4. Proactive Counter-Information Operations on Internal Issues: Transparently communicate the government's stance and progress on the NABU/SAP law to both domestic and international audiences. Actively engage with protesters to address concerns and counter RF narratives seeking to exploit internal Ukrainian political differences and perceived divisions within the military/security forces. Leverage positive national news (e.g., sporting victories) to bolster morale and counter negative narratives.
5. Reinforce Civilian Protection Measures and Humanitarian Aid: Accelerate efforts to harden critical civilian infrastructure, particularly energy and transportation hubs, against recurring RF missile and UAV attacks. Establish and clearly communicate enhanced civilian shelter procedures in high-risk areas. Increase humanitarian aid and evacuation support for frontline cities experiencing intensified shelling.
6. Maximize Domestic Drone Production and Innovation: Prioritize and maximize domestic production of all types of drones, especially FPVs and reconnaissance UAVs, by streamlining procurement processes, investing in local manufacturers, and securing necessary components from international partners. Encourage and support rapid innovation in UAF drone tactics and technology.
7. Strategic Diplomatic Engagement on Peace Terms: Maintain active engagement in the Istanbul negotiations, using the platform to articulate Ukrainian terms for a just peace while carefully monitoring RF intentions and adapting diplomatic strategy based on their battlefield actions. Coordinate closely with international partners to ensure a unified front in diplomatic engagements, particularly given internal RF dissent over potential concessions. Continue to push for prisoner exchanges.