Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 231307Z JUL 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats lifted; localized Shahed UAV threats persist for Lviv, Southern Ukraine, Dnipropetrovsk (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi, Synelnykivskyi districts), and Kharkiv Oblasts. Confirmed civilian casualties (14 fatalities, multiple injured) across multiple oblasts. Rescue and emergency services are actively engaged. Civilian infrastructure damage confirmed in Odesa due to RF UAV attack. Rocket danger for Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kryvyi Rih (UPDATE): Multiple reports of explosions due to mass Shahed UAV attack. Fires confirmed and liquidated; no casualties reported. Mayor Vilkul reports situation controlled as of 230443Z JUL 25. Photos confirm infrastructure and solar panel damage in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from enemy strikes. Colonelcassad video confirms a strike in Kryvyi Rih, showing flashes and possible smoke plumes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Kryvyi Rih: Ukrainian official reports two command centers will operate until evening to assist residents whose property was damaged by overnight drone attacks, confirming 8 private homes and around 15 multi-story buildings hit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Oleksandr Vilkul publishes photo messages related to thermal modernization of education facilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Northern Ukraine (Kyiv Oblast): Continued Air Defense (AD) engagement against Shahed UAVs over Kyiv. Kinetic impacts on residential/commercial buildings and a metro entrance; one fatality and nine injuries reported. Firefighters engaged a kindergarten fire. RF milblogger claims three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on Kyiv on 21 JUL 25, with video, and a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility. New ballistic missile threat for Kyiv lifted. RBC-Ukraine reports a localized internal security incident (shooting) in Vasylkiv. Crane collapse on Hlybochytska Street due to strong winds/storm affected civilian infrastructure, hospitalizing 5 individuals. Protest observed regarding legislation limiting NABU/SAP powers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Eastern Ukraine: Initial cruise missile group detected over Kharkiv Oblast, moving towards Poltava Oblast. Kharkiv's Kyivskyi district hit by 12 UAV strikes overnight. RF milblogger claims bomber strikes on UAF forward positions in Yanvarskyi supporting 36th Army advance. New group of RF UAVs reported from Luhansk Oblast moving towards Kharkiv Oblast. Kharkiv Oblast governor confirms strikes on Kharkiv city and 10 settlements. DeepState reports RF advances in Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, and near three other villages in Donetsk Oblast. MoD Russia video claims liberation of Popov Yar. RF milbloggers claim a new RF front opened in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian military operations confirmed near Belaya Gora, Donetsk, with claims of capturing foreign weapons. Colonelcassad shares map showing continued positional changes. UAF National Guard "Khartia" brigade drone operators claimed destruction of nearly a platoon of Russian occupiers in Kharkiv Oblast. A tractor driver was blown up by a mine in Balakliia community, Kharkiv Oblast. At least 54 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast affected by enemy strikes over the past week. STERNENKO claims Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment holding back Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast. Liveuamap Source reports recent clashes at Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Gulyaypole, and Kherson directions. Ukrainian forces repelled 23 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. FPV drone strike on Russian UAZ-452 ('Bukhanka') vehicle confirmed. Perovske, Zolochiv community, Kharkiv Oblast, shelled. DeepState reports liquidation of RF sabotage groups in Pokrovsk. RF milbloggers claim RF DRG activity in Pokrovsk, with video suggesting an ambush on a UAF vehicle. Threat of aviation munitions for Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. Clashes confirmed yesterday in Toretsk, Sieversk, Lyman, Novopavlivka, Kramatorsk, Kupyansk, Orikhiv, South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), and Pokrovsk directions. Ukrainian forces repelled 22 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. DeepState analysis indicates RF army occupied Hrushevske and advanced near Voskresenka, Orikhove, Mayak and Zatyhka (formerly Suvorove) in Donetsk Oblast. TASS and MoD Russia claim RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske in DNR. TASS claims RF forces dislodged UAF from strongpoint near Kremenna and took control of 1 hectare of forest. New information from Operatyvnyi ZSU and WarGonzo confirms Ukrainian General Staff data regarding the situation across the FLOT. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: TASS reports RF forces advanced near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast, dislodging UAF units from several positions. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports renewed activity in Kharkiv direction, with video showing drone-guided strikes on targets, indicating continued RF pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy UAVs in Eastern Kharkiv Oblast continuing movement south. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports the same, confirming continued southward movement of enemy drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction and warns of threat of aviation munitions for frontline oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): RBC-Ukraine reports confirmed damage to a market in Kharkiv Oblast due to a drone strike, with photo evidence. ASTRA corroborates RF attack on market in Velykyi Burluk, Kharkiv Oblast, with multiple photo messages showing extensive damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo provides a map indicating military activities in the Kharkiv region as of 23 JUL 25, showing a front line and symbols of military actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Рыбарь posts a map-based video analysis of advances and combat near Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast), indicating continued RF ground pressure in the Kharkiv direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews video confirms RF strike on a Ukrainian law enforcement building in Kharkiv's Saltivskyi district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 video showcases 58th Brigade's use of BM-21 'Grad' MLRS to destroy Russian forces. This confirms active artillery engagements on this axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports FPV drone operators of the "West" grouping destroyed a Ukrainian "Akatsiya" self-propelled howitzer in Kharkiv Oblast. This confirms continued RF tactical drone integration against UAF artillery assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad video, sourced from "Northern Wind," claims a strike on the 'Ordzhonikidzevsky District Police Department of the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Kharkiv'. This indicates RF targeting of Ukrainian internal security infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Oleg Synegubov, head of Kharkiv Regional Military Administration, provides an update on attacks, weapon types (drones and artillery), impact on civilian infrastructure and residential buildings, and evacuation efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Popov Yar, Donetsk Oblast: TASS reports a group of Ukrainian servicemen surrendered in Popov Yar, DNR. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • South-Donetsk Direction: Colonelcassad publishes video claiming successful destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit by 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, "Vostok" Grouping. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zvиздец Мангусту provides an overview of RF Ground Forces "Vostok" Grouping, discussing its estimated strength and equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS video claims RF Su-25 attack aircraft struck a UAF stronghold in the "Vostok" zone of responsibility. This indicates continued RF close air support operations in this sector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast: ASTRA, RBC-Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 report a direct RF KAB strike on a residential building, resulting in confirmed death of a 10-year-old child and 7 injured. New information reports 12 injured after aviation strikes on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sloviansk, Donetsk Oblast: Олексій Білошицький reports Russian attack on Sloviansk. Paramedics from the "Predator" brigade assisted an 81-year-old woman. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk Oblast: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade drone operators created a "kill zone," destroying multiple enemy vehicles and personnel with FPV drones. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video of 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade using FPV drones to destroy two pieces of RF mechanized equipment during an attempted assault. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes a video showing Ukrainian drone operators (427th Separate Unmanned Systems Regiment "Rarog") using "fireball" bombs to destroy houses and premises used by the enemy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast: RBC-Ukraine provides photo/video on RF drone and KAB attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Belgorod Oblast (RF): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video claiming HIMARS strikes on an RF S-300 air defense battery, a "Nebo-M" radar, and a 5H66M "Big Bird" radar. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) TASS reports three injured, including two minors, in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF strike. ASTRA also reports three injured. "Два майора" publishes a video of an aerial attack on a convoy of vehicles. ASTRA reports a civilian was injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Velyka Novosilka - Shevchenko: "Сливочный каприз" publishes photo messages likely indicating continued engagements. "Сливочный каприз" publishes video of a destroyed settlement with a person carrying a Russian flag, captioned "Konstantinovka - Belaya Gora," indicating active combat and likely RF advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnolimanskoye Direction: "Два майора" publishes a video showing RF unit thanking for humanitarian aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar: Colonelcassad provides video footage claiming the destruction of a UAF UAV command post on the outskirts. Операция Z publishes aerial reconnaissance footage of a rural area, indicating military activity, explosions, and damaged buildings, focused on Chaiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnoarmeysk direction: MoD Russia video claims destruction of a UAF UAV control post. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports RF forces are forming a wide encirclement of Krasnoarmeysk in DNR after liberating Novotoretske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV reports RF forces active, claiming to disable Starlink communications for 25th Airborne Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publish videos claiming Russian reconnaissance and DRG activity, with video suggesting an ambush on a UAF vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes photo messages claiming active work by RF operators against enemy equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 publishes aerial footage of a convoy of military vehicles, likely UAF, in Krasnoarmeysk direction, suggesting active RF ISR and targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes video claiming TOS-1A fire damage on a UAF stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sloviansk/Kramatorsk: Colonelcassad publishes video claiming "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk, with a large plume of dark smoke. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Alexandrovgrad: Воин DV publishes drone footage claiming destruction of armored vehicles and personnel by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 5th Guards Tank Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) DeepState reports RF advanced near Aleksandrovgrad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Nikolaevka, DNR (NEW): Colonelcassad claims elements of the 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade have taken Nikolayevka in DNR. The video includes an interview with a Russian soldier and drone footage showing a village. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Novotoretske, DNR: TASS, MoD Russia, Операция Z, and Kotsnews all claim RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports RF forces are now fighting for Fedorovka in DNR, having liberated Novotoretske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnoarmeysk Direction: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes video claiming the downing of a heavy "Baba Yaga" drone by AIRNOMADS operators. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Torskoye (UPDATE): Оперативний ЗСУ publishes drone video claiming to show a "military crime" by RF forces targeting a civilian on a bicycle, followed by artillery strikes, with claims of multiple enemy neutralizations. DeepState publishes video alleging RF forces shot a local resident on a bicycle. RF sources now claim Russian assault units have dislodged Ukrainian forces from Torske (DNR) and positions in the Serebryansky forestry. DeepState reports RF advanced near Torske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Russian servicemen repelled three UAF attacks near Torske in DNR, occupying new positions in the eastern part of the village. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Orlivka, Sumy Oblast: Colonelcassad claims use of "Harpy" drones by RF UAV units to destroy temporary deployment points and vehicles of the UAF 104th Territorial Defense Brigade near Orlivka. Video shows residential buildings impacted by explosions and fires. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Temirovka, Zaporizhzhia Region: MoD Russia claims Uragan MLRS hit AFU positions near Temirovka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pokrovsk (Donetsk Oblast): Рыбарь channel publishes a photo and video indicating "Russian infantry in Pokrovsk." Воин DV publishes video claiming to show drone footage of an AFU armored vehicle being engaged by AIRNOMADS. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны publish video claiming fierce battles, increased pace of advance, and destruction of enemy equipment and personnel. Операция Z reports that "Otvazhnye" (brave ones) stormed a UAF strongpoint. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video claiming RF DRG activity on the road. Colonelcassad publishes drone footage from the "Centre" group showing explosions targeting enemy vehicles (SUV, tank) and positions (BABA-YAGA drone, STARLINK terminal). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes video showcasing the effective drone-based reconnaissance and strike capabilities of the GV 'Center' group in Pokrovsk, showing minivan, armored vehicle, and shelter targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports on the ongoing "cleanup" in Pokrovsk following a DRG breakthrough and discusses the threat to the city. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast, Izium: Colonelcassad publishes video showing residents of Izium visually monitoring a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike on a Ukrainian "occupation formation" object. Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes video claiming a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike on a target. Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports RF forces struck military warehouses this morning (22 JUL 25). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast, Oskil: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes drone footage showing the Khartia brigade's engagement against enemy personnel and a fuel depot. RF flags visible on targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk Oblast (New KAB Launches): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports repeated KAB launches. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv/Sumy Border (New KAB Launches): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kamyansk (New): Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Defense Forces have withdrawn to the flanks and are holding Kamyansk under fire control. Военкор Котенок posts a map of the Dnipropetrovsk direction, indicating potential RF focus. Военкор Котенок posts a map of the Druzhkivka direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video showing a severely damaged apartment building, likely in Avdiivka, with a person in tactical gear. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Konstantinovka Direction: Z комитет + карта СВО publishes a tactical map indicating RF advances and control zones as of 22 JUL 25. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 publishes tactical map showing RF control or movement in Konstantinovskoye direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poltavka Direction: Z комитет + карта СВО publishes a tactical map indicating RF advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dzerzhinsk Direction: Военкор Котенок publishes a tactical map indicating activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Belaya Gora, Donetsk Oblast (New Flag): Colonelcassad publishes a video showing an RF serviceman raising a Russian flag. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Avdiivka Axis (UPDATE): Оперативний ЗСУ reports on drone footage showing UAF 2nd Battalion of the 101st Brigade disrupting RF assault plans. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo publishes a photo message related to a law on "lawlessness" in Ukraine, likely related to the NABU/SAP controversy, but the image itself shows an urban setting, possibly a protest, and text. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kursk Oblast (RF): Colonelcassad publishes multiple photo messages showing a destroyed American M1A1SA Abrams tank. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • RF Deep Strike (NEW): Воин DV publishes thermal/night vision drone footage showing an explosion engulfing a lead vehicle in a convoy on a dirt road. Воин DV publishes drone footage from the 36th Army showing nighttime destruction of multiple enemy vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Komar (NEW): TASS publishes video claiming RF stormtroopers "liberated" the village of Komar in DNR. DeepState reports RF advanced near Komar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novoselivka (NEW): Colonelcassad publishes video claiming destruction of UAF 118th Separate Mechanized Brigade equipment in Novoselivka area, including a MAX-PRO armored vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk Oblast (NEW ADVANCES): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (DeepState) reports RF advanced near Voskresenka, Dyliiivka, Karlivka, and Leonidiivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Z комитет + карта СВО publishes a tactical map with "Леонтовичи" caption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pankovka (NEW): Народная милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of a UAF D-30 howitzer near Pankovka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Narodnaya militsiya DNR publishes video of destruction of a D-30 howitzer, claiming it was near Oktyabrsky. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Central Ukraine: Missile group (up to 10) towards Myrhorod district, then passing Poltava towards Kremenсhuk. New missile group from Sumy Oblast also moved towards Poltava Oblast. Another group from Cherkasy Oblast diverted, heading westward into Vinnytsia Oblast. Kryvyi Rih reports "situation controlled." Aftermath of attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast confirmed. TASS claims RF forces used FABs against UAF reserve positions in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovets Oblast. New threat of strike UAVs for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi districts). UAV reported on Poltava Oblast, heading southwest. Threat of enemy strike UAVs in Zolotoniskyi and Cherkaskyi districts of Cherkasy Oblast. One fatality in Vinnytsia from 16 July strike. Explosions in Kropyvnytskyi and Kryvyi Rih amid ballistic missile threat. Kirovohrad Oblast attacked by ballistic missiles. Nikopol district attacked by artillery, MLRS "Grad," and FPV drones. НгП раZVедка reports on aftermath of strike on preparatory camp in Kropyvnytskyi. UAV threat reported in Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, heading northwest. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), with possible AD activity. Missile danger for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi district) and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: TASS claims a UK-trained UAF unit was destroyed. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports over two dozen attacks in Nikopol district throughout the day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports an infrastructure object damaged due to a drone hit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district) - threat of enemy strike UAVs! (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes photos regarding a visit from Myroslav Biletskyi, Head of Zakarpattia Oblast Military Administration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports 8 enemy UAVs were shot down overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatyvnyi ZSU publishes multiple photo messages showing consequences of enemy strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, including destroyed solar panels and other infrastructure damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports meeting with district and community leaders of Synelnykivshchyna, indicating this area is under severe attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes photo messages of 10 school buses dispatched to communities in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, part of 30 since summer. This indicates ongoing efforts to support local communities and civilian life. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ballistic Missile Threat: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports a threat of ballistic missile use from the East. Ballistic missile threat from Northeast lifted. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports ballistic threat from East. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports high-speed target from Kursk Oblast heading southwest in Sumy Oblast. Ballistic missile threat lifted for all areas. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, course southwest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poltava Oblast: The Office of the Prosecutor General reports a domestic law enforcement event regarding counterfeit perfumes/cosmetics. Enemy UAVs from Sumy Oblast are entering northeastern Poltava Oblast, heading southwest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) claims a powerful strike on a UAF training ground. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Western Ukraine: Cruise missiles confirmed from Vinnytsia Oblast to Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Main group entered Ternopil Oblast, Chernivtsi Oblast (AD engaging, 4 fatalities confirmed), and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast (explosions, damage, casualties). Kinzhal hypersonic missile launched from MiG-31K tracked towards Starokostiantyniv, then Ternopil/Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts, with confirmed explosions and casualties. Mayor of Ivano-Frankivsk confirmed infrastructure damage. Three Shahed UAVs approaching Ivano-Frankivsk reported intercepted. Damage to kindergarten and university in Lviv. Damaged residential buildings (20 private homes) in Kamianets-Podilskyi district, Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports a conflict occurred between TCC personnel and local residents. This highlights ongoing tension related to mobilization efforts in the region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Odesa Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a Shahed UAV recovered from the shore. RBC-Ukraine reports severe flooding due to heavy rain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volyn Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports a localized internal security incident involving a shooting. RBC-Ukraine reports a French Mirage 2000 fighter jet crashed due to technical malfunction; pilot ejected successfully. Alex Parker Returns reports an F-16 was shot down in Rivne Oblast; pilot ejected. This is a conflicting claim. UAF Air Force confirms Mirage 2000 crash due to technical malfunction. Операция Z publishes video claiming a Ukrainian Mirage 2000 fighter jet crashed. Zelenskiy / Official has confirmed the downed Mirage and stated the pilot ejected safely, adding that it was not caused by Russian action. WarGonzo and ASTRA also report on the Mirage 2000 crash. Fighterbomber, an RF milblogger, states the cause of the Mirage crash is unclear, listing various possibilities including collision with F-16, own/enemy missile fragments, or "fatigued 13-year-old pilot." This is RF information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for crash; HIGH - for RF info op)
  • Romania (NEW): RBC-Ukraine reports Romania is forming a voluntary contract army. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Southern Ukraine: New Shahed UAVs detected in Black Sea, heading towards Pivdenne/Koblevo (8 inbound). RF strike on Vasylivskyi district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulted in 2 fatalities, 1 wounded. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reports 14 UAVs shot down (previously 7). Missile threat active for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF 44th Artillery Brigade successfully targeted an RF 2A65 Msta-B. Colonelcassad claims missile strike on Ukrainian gas platform in Black Sea. TASS reports parts of a downed UAF UAV fell on a kindergarten and Ministry of Emergency Situations in Berdyansk. Launches of KABs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast confirmed. UAV threat for Kherson, Zaporizhzhia (Nikopolskyi district), and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts from the south. 4 new Shahed UAVs from Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Pavlohrad. New groups of Shahed UAVs from Black Sea heading towards Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts. Odesa Oblast AD engaged 10 Shahed UAVs over Black Sea; 12 Shahed UAVs confirmed approaching Odesa from the sea. Explosions heard in Odesa. CONFIRMED CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE IN ODESA DUE TO RF UAV ATTACK, with photo evidence of destroyed vehicles, debris, and extensive damage. RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU further confirm extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Odesa. One fatality in Odesa due to the attack (confirmed by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS), and one injured (STERNENKO). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Enemy UAVs from western Kherson Oblast are heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports 7 UAVs flying towards/through Shyroke/Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports another 7 UAVs in Beryslav district, heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAVs from the west inbound to Kryvyi Rih; take shelter. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Олександр Вілкул reports explosions in Kryvyi Rih due to mass Shahed attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Суспільне reports explosions in Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports the 7 UAVs heading to Kryvyi Rih were neutralized. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) One RF Shahed UAV reported near Posad-Pokrovske (Kherson Oblast), heading north. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows a trench or defensive structure engulfed in flames in Kherson Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson Oblast: Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 4 Russian army assaults. TASS reports on Russian Group "Dnepr" UAV calculation with FPV drones destroying a Ukrainian D-20 howitzer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок claims destruction of a Ukrainian boat with personnel using a fiber-optic FPV drone. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes video showing a Grad MLRS crew eliminating enemy targets on the right bank of Dnepr river. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes video claiming destruction of a UAV command post for the 34th Separate Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Antonivka, Kherson Oblast, using a LMUR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports a 66-year-old woman died in Kherson as a result of shelling, according to OMA head Oleksandr Prokudin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes video featuring Russian marines on the Kherson direction, indicating continued RF presence and operations. "Два майора" publishes thermal footage showing a river crossing operation with small boats, some appearing engaged, on the Kherson direction, suggesting continued active engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes video showing a vehicle driving on a highway in Kherson Oblast, with smoke in the distance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports RF drone attack injured two children in Kherson Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports two fatalities and two wounded in Kherson Oblast due to RF attack on civilian vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) SBU reported заочно suspicion to five Russian generals who commanded shelling of the right bank of Kherson Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mariupol: TASS reports that the Mariupol port is operating with sufficient staff for current workload. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vasylivskyi District, Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has posted photo messages showing a wounded man from an "enemy attack." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson: ASTRA reports one woman injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Southern Direction: Сили оборони Півдня України reports continued RF aviation strikes, FPV drone use, and Shahed UAV attacks on frontline settlements and UAF positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Ballistic missile threat alert issued. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues immediate alert and then lifts air raid alert. Военкор Котенок publishes a tactical map for the Zaporizhzhia direction (right flank). WarGonzo provides a map dated 23 JUL 25, showing military operations in the Zaporizhzhia Front, including the front line, territorial control, and combat actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes video showing RF drone operators and artillery of the 35th Army targeting satellite communication equipment, personnel, and strongpoints in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports RF attacked Polohivskyi district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports Russian aviation conducted over 8 airstrikes on enemy positions in the Orikhiv sector of the Zaporizhzhia direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes photo messages about business development in wartime conditions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in Zaporizhzhia Oblast; means engaged for its destruction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: Air Force reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV detected. UAV on Mykolaiv Oblast, course north. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA publishes multiple photo messages and video showing firefighters extinguishing a blaze in Mykolaiv Oblast following RF drone and artillery attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Shkolny Airfield, Odesa Oblast: Военкор Котенок claims Ukrainian AD targeted high-rise buildings and local parking during "Geranium" attack, an RF attempt to shift blame. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Nova Kakhovka: WarGonzo reports two fatalities from a drone strike on a minibus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Gas Facilities (Black Sea): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. Военкор Котенок reports "Naftogaz" states that an important gas production facility was attacked last night with "dozens of drones." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson Direction: Два майора publishes video indicating drone operations, signal loss/interference and possible impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vessel Destruction: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes video showing a burning naval vessel, likely after an engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Temporary flight restrictions at Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky airports have been lifted. Restrictions also lifted at Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, and Kaluga airports. RF milbloggers gloat about Kyiv impacts. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claims 18 UAVs shot down over Moscow; RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight (previously 23 over Moscow, and a total of 74 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight). Falling UAV debris on railway station in Rostov Oblast delayed over 50 passenger trains. Fire at Kamianolomni railway station, Rostov Oblast confirmed. Belgorod governor reports 2 civilian injuries from UAF UAV attack. Flooding reported in Moscow streets. Fires reported in Rostov and Moscow oblasts after UAV hits. TASS reports a Moldovan national detained in Ryazan confessed to transmitting data on RF Armed Forces to Kyiv. TASS reports a man detained in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD facilities. TASS reports RF MoD claims 14 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kaluga, Bryansk, Tula, and Oryol Oblasts. Crimean Bridge queue reached 2000 vehicles. TASS reports foreigners can enter RF without RuID registration. TASS reports the new Moskvich-8 car is on sale for 2.98 million rubles. TASS reports the Sheremetyevo airport is organizing recreation zones for passengers. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. ASTRA reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Gennady Starunov, a Russian "Teacher of the Year 2022," lecturer from Moscow school #1164, and author of Telegram channel "Frontline Notes," was liquidated in Ukraine. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Temporary flight restrictions are introduced in Kaluga airport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Restrictions on receiving and sending aircraft introduced at Nizhny Novgorod airport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Nizhny Novgorod governor reports enemy UAVs again targeted industrial facilities; attack was repelled, no casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports former military representative Sergei Bolgarev sentenced to 8.5 years for a 14 million ruble bribe. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports communications problems in Crimea due to DDoS attacks on operators. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov-on-Don: TASS reports a UAV attack was repelled in Rostov-on-Don, Millerovo, Donetsk (Rostov Oblast), and Azov district, with no casualties. Оперативний ЗСУ and ASTRA report UAV attacks on Novocherkassk railway station and Novocherkassk GRES (thermal power plant). НгП раZVедка reports on UAV attack on Novocherkassk GRES. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the building of "Rosstelecom" was also damaged in Novocherkassk. ASTRA confirms a railway crossing closure and traffic jam in Novocherkassk. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes a video showing a UAV attack on a railway junction in Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast. TASS reports three people injured in Novocherkassk due to UAV attack. ASTRA corroborates with video showing damaged residential building. ASTRA publishes multiple photo messages confirming damage to the Rostelecom building in Novocherkassk from drone attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Север.Реалии reports three injured in Rostov Oblast from drone attacks and railway closures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): STERNENKO publishes multiple videos and photo messages of UAV attacks on railway infrastructure, a GRES, and a Rostelecom building in Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes multiple videos and analysis confirming UAF drone attacks on Novocherkassk railway station and GRES, stating it is the main power source for the region. Video shows large fire and possible explosion. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also publishes videos of these attacks, confirming strikes on railway infrastructure, GRES, and a Rostelecom building. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatyvnyi ZSU publishes videos confirming drone attacks on Novocherkassk, Shakhty, Myasnikovsky, Rodionovo-Nesvetaysky, and Aksaysky districts of Rostov Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatyvnyi ZSU publishes photo messages confirming damage to the Rostelecom building in Novocherkassk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Rostov Oblast (NEW): RBC-Ukraine publishes video showing a significant fire or explosion in Rostov Oblast, with commentary suggesting an attack on an important logistical hub. This confirms previous reports of Novocherkassk railway station and GRES strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports enemy drones attacked Ukrzaliznytsia's energy infrastructure overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno publishes imagery and information about alleged damage to enemy logistics in Rostov Oblast. This aligns with and reinforces previous reports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports a large-scale fraud scheme (500 million rubles) by "pseudo-builders" affecting 135 people from three southern regions, as reported by Rostov Oblast police. This is a significant internal criminal event. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tula Oblast: TASS reports RF air defense destroyed three Ukrainian UAVs. (UPDATE): TASS reports 12 UAVs were destroyed overnight over Tula Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov Oblast UAV Development: TASS reports plans to make Rostov Oblast a leader in UAV development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novosibirsk: TASS reports the detention of a young man for hacking information resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Samara Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports a drone attack on Samara Oblast, RF. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) ASTRA provides video confirming the Novosuybyshevsk oil refinery fire after a UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: MoD Russia video reports servicemen of the Central MD's special operations formation practiced sabotage actions in a mock enemy rear area near Samara. This indicates ongoing training for special operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Bryansk Oblast: Брянская область. Губернатор reports "nine more" Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed overnight. TASS reports that searches are being conducted at the home of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, now confirmed detained on charges of abuse of power. AV БогомаZ reports that 28 Ukrainian UAVs were detected and destroyed. (UPDATE): AV БогомаZ reports 2 enemy UAVs were destroyed overnight over Bryansk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko was sent to Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow: TASS reports the death of Irina Podnosova, the Chairman of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation. TASS reports Putin expressed condolences. Новости Москвы posts a video showing water puddles and cleaning operations inside a public building. ТАСС publishes videos showing flooded metro tracks at "Bagrationovskaya" and "Kuntsevskaya" stations. Another video shows a flooded train station/underpass. Оперативний ЗСУ publishes multiple videos showing severe urban flooding. ASTRA publishes videos showing severe urban flooding. Moscow is planning to build a new highway. Новости Москвы reports that from tomorrow, electric car charging will no longer be free. Военкор Котенок reports discussing the important topic of enemy UAV strikes on Moscow. STERNENKO provides a list of RF regions with "drone danger." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports a person died and nine were injured in a residential building fire in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports phone scammers stole nearly 35 million rubles from a 77-year-old pensioner in Moscow. While civilian, this may highlight internal security issues or vulnerabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы video displays an interactive street advertisement in Moscow. This is a civilian detail but indicates ongoing normal life/commerce in the capital. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) NEW: Новости Москвы reports new COVID-19 variant "Stratus" is spreading, mainly in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы reports Moscow residents are losing vision more frequently due to smartphones and ecology. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
  • Kabardino-Balkaria: ASTRA and Operatyvnyi ZSU report an emergency situation declared due to a mudslide and damaged bridge. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow Development: Новости Москвы reports plans for over 800 sports and 1500 children's playgrounds to be built this year. Новости Москвы also reports that scientists have proven a four-day work week without salary reduction improves employee well-being. Новости Москвы posts a video showing heavy rain and flooded streets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Crimea: TASS reports three individuals were detained for desecrating a monument. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video reports the dismissal of Sevastopol official Oleg Borisov for supporting Ukraine, indicating internal purges or loyalty checks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tyumen: "Операция Z" reports the detention of a migrant for threatening a teenager. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Law Enforcement: TASS reports billionaire Matsotsky appealed his in absentia arrest in a bribery case. TASS reports the chief editor of the Ryazan online publication "Svoy Kolokolny" (Svoy kolokolnya) Komarov was detained in an extortion case. Colonelcassad reports a local resident was detained in Veliky Novgorod for planning to join the "Russian Volunteer Corps." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • FSB Activity: FSB reports it thwarted activities of three suspects aiding Ukrainian special services. Colonelcassad confirms three accomplices detained for preparing terrorist attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports FSB detained an SBU agent in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast who set up a cache with UAV parts. ASTRA corroborates this. TASS publishes video of an individual identified as an SBU agent, Sergey, confessing to setting up a cache with UAV parts in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Рыбарь video claims FSB prevented an act of sabotage, showing the apprehension of an individual and discovery of bottles, likely related to inflammatory materials. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports FSB detained an SBU agent in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast who was preparing a cache of UAV parts and explosives. This is a high-impact internal security event. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes video of FSB operations in DNR and Yaroslavl Oblast against Ukrainian special service accomplices preparing terrorist acts. This confirms broader RF counter-terrorism efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow: ASTRA reports security forces detained Dmitry Kisiev, head of the headquarters of former presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin. ASTRA reports that journalist Yuri Dud, classified as a "foreign agent" in Russia, has been заочно (in absentia) arrested for two months. TASS confirms this arrest and states he is on an international wanted list. TASS reports blogger Dud is заочно accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. ASTRA reports Yuri Dud is заочно accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF MoD Corruption: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports new criminal cases against former Deputy Minister of Defense Pavel Popov for multi-million ruble bribes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novorossiysk: TASS reports over 20 apartments damaged by a domestic gas explosion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • St. Petersburg: ASTRA and Север.Реалии report two foreign nationals detained near FSB building for dancing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports St. Petersburg residents can call emergency services through Max. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Sever.Realii reports a resident of St. Petersburg was sentenced for supporting the "Russian Volunteer Corps" and for a critical comment about "Soviet herd." This indicates RF's continued suppression of dissent and control over public discourse. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Foreign Vessel Access: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Putin has toughened rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poland General's Death: TASS, Colonelcassad, and Alex Parker Returns report the death of Polish General Waldemar Skrzypczak. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a photo message reporting the death of former Polish Land Forces commander Waldemar Skrzypczak, highlighting his calls to attack Belarus and Kaliningrad Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF MFA Statements: TASS reports RF MFA states RF significantly expanded list of EU representatives and EU institutions banned from entering Russia. TASS also reports "Western countries continue to use Ukraine as a tool to wage war against Russia." TASS reports Russia regrets the US withdrawal from UNESCO. TASS photo message reports Maria Zakharova condemning Italy's "cancel culture" regarding Gergiev's concert, framing it as dictated by Bandera's followers, indicating continued use of cultural and historical narratives for propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS photo message reports Lavrov and Afghanistan Foreign Minister emphasized mutual interest in increasing cooperation. This signals RF's diplomatic outreach. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Media Raids: TASS, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, and Север.Реалии report police and OMON conducted searches at "Baza" publication's editorial office and the editor-in-chief's apartment. TASS also provides video showing the situation at the Baza office. Операция Z reports a criminal case for exceeding authority has been opened against police officers in Moscow who leaked information. TASS reports investigators detained not only the editor-in-chief of Baza, Trifonova, but also several other employees for questioning. Alex Parker Returns publishes video claiming police officers who leaked information to Baza have been detained, along with five Baza employees including the editor-in-chief. TASS reports the chief editor of Telegram channel Baza, Gleb Trifonov, and his colleague were detained in Moscow for bribery. TASS reports that a second suspect, producer Tatyana Lukyanova, has been identified in the case of the Baza editor-in-chief. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the Investigative Committee (SK) seeks the arrest of Trifonov and Lukyanova in the bribery case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports law enforcement denied the detention of Ura.ru editor Igor Sergeev, stating he was brought for an investigative action. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports in the case of Baza editor Trifonov, the bribe sums did not exceed 100,000 rubles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the editor-in-chief of Baza, Trifonov, and producer Lukyanova face up to 12 years in prison. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Baza publication intends to continue its work, per co-founder Anatoly Suleymanov. This suggests internal resilience within Russian media despite pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • IT Military Deferral: TASS reports that the acceptance of applications for IT deferrals from military service has begun. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pensioner Treason Case: ASTRA reports a pensioner from Izhevsk sentenced to 15 years for treason but released due to health. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Supreme Court Memorial: TASS reports a memorial service for Irina Podnosova was held. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Yuri Kara Funeral: TASS reports and provides video of the funeral of film director Yuri Kara in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Transbaikal Region: ASTRA reports a teenager claiming torture after detention for forest arson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow Drone Facility Attack: РБК-Україна reports a car belonging to the head of a company manufacturing drones for occupiers was burned. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Roskomnadzor: TASS reports Roskomnadzor blocked 56,000 resources with extremist materials. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Law on Extremist Materials: TASS reports State Duma adopted law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. Alex Parker Returns reinforces this. TASS reports the State Duma has adopted amendments related to requirements for owners of audiovisual services and social networks regarding blocking films. Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo message stating the State Duma has approved a law to block communications for subscribers with frozen bank accounts. TASS reports that the adopted law on terminating advance payments for mobile operators does not contain norms for blocking communications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS video from Duma Deputy Boyarsky confirms discussions on blocking funds on "mobile" accounts, which could include general banking. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Families of SVO Fighters: TASS reports State Duma allowed widows of SVO fighters to use their cars until inheritance is issued. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Second Child Credit Holidays: Басурин о главном reports Russian families with a second child will receive 1.5 years of credit holidays. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • St. Petersburg (Internal Security): TASS reports security forces conducting operations at the Mikhailovsky Theater. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF State Duma: TASS reports the State Duma has approved the transfer of data regarding migrant children enrollment in schools to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. TASS reports State Duma Deputy Mikhail Tarasenko (United Russia) has died from illness. TASS reports the Duma adopted an amendment fining citizens for disclosing state secrets in media. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes video showing a formal session discussing "labor migrants." TASS reports the State Duma has adopted several laws aimed at preventing embezzlement. TASS reports the Duma restricted the sale of electronic railway tickets. Новости Москвы publishes a photo message stating a draft law for year-round military conscription has been submitted. ASTRA publishes a video showing a man (later identified as a State Duma Deputy) discussing the implementation of year-round conscription. TASS reports that a State Duma Deputy stated the Duma is discussing support measures for passengers with children in case of flight delays. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы reports Russian border guards now have full access to the military registration registry. Alex Parker Returns photo message confirms border guards' access to military registration registry to prevent draft dodgers from leaving Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports LDPR proposes mandating employers transfer pregnant women and mothers with children up to 3 years old to remote work. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ASTRA publishes photo messages reporting that State Duma Deputy Mikhail Tarasenko voted 11 times on the day of his death. This suggests potential proxy voting or irregularities within the Duma. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Putin signed a law where forced labor becomes a separate type of punishment and is no longer an alternative to imprisonment. This is a significant legislative change concerning the penal system. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы reports Belarusian citizens permanently residing in RF will be able to participate in local elections after Putin signed the law. This is a step towards political integration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ASTRA reports that Belarusian citizens can participate in local elections in Russia. This confirms the previously reported change. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Messengers: TASS reports that blocking foreign messengers in Russia is not planned. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Internal Affairs: Операция Z shares an image with text about "traitors-Nazis from Russia" being handed over to Moscow by Kyiv. Операция Z reports that Ukrainian MP Skorokhod admitted that TCC "beat mobilized people to death" across Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Armenian Insiders: "Два майора" reports "Armenian insiders" claim security forces will soon work with businessmen close to Pashinyan who conduct business in Russia. TASS reports Karapetyan won a case against the Armenian government in an international arbitration court regarding the nationalization of "Electroset," an internal Armenian development with potential RF implications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Военкор Котенок reports Western media claims Yerevan agreed to transfer the Zangezur Corridor under direct US control, citing a document with the Armenian diaspora in France. This is an unverified but significant geopolitical claim, likely an RF information operation. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Kaliningrad "Conqueror" Dies: Старше Эдды reports the death of the "conqueror" of Kaliningrad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow Airport: WarGonzo questions what is happening at Moscow airport during a "carpet plan" (drone attack). TASS reports 517 flights were canceled at Moscow and St. Petersburg airports between July 19-22, affecting 75,000 passengers. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a serviceman could not see his family due to air collapse. STERNENKO publishes multiple videos showing a crowded airport terminal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Trump Administration & PRO: TASS reports the Trump administration is looking for an alternative to Musk's SpaceX for creating a "Golden Dome" missile defense system. РБК-Україна publishes a photo message implying Trump is seeking alternatives to SpaceX. Трамп не виключає можливість зустрічі з путіном під час ймовірного візиту до Китаю. Оперативний ЗСУ publishes a video of Donald Trump. РБК-Україна reports that the US State Department clarified Trump's ultimatum for Russia in his "50 days" plan. TASS reports Trump stated that Kyiv likely did not spend all the money allocated by the US for arms purchases. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны publish video of Donald Trump stating a feeling that $350 billion in aid to Ukraine might have been embezzled. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" publishes a photo message featuring Donald Trump and a caption questioning if $350 billion in aid to Ukraine was embezzled. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad video shows Donald Trump's past statements against Obama, Biden, and Hillary Clinton regarding fabricated election history, used as political commentary or satire, indicating RF's continued use of foreign political figures for information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donbas Drought: Mash на Донбассе provides photo messages of the dried-up Khanzhenkovo reservoir. Mash на Донбассе video shows bridge repair in Nizhnyaya Kryanka, after which the reservoir dried up, indicating infrastructure issues linked to water supply in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volunteer Aid (RF forces): Colonelcassad publishes a video about collecting aid for a 4th vehicle convoy along the KatyaValya line. Народная милиция ДНР publishes photo messages for a fundraising drive for three units. Военкор Котенок makes an appeal for support. Colonelcassad shows two civilian Lada Niva vehicles being prepared. Воин DV publishes a video showing a military hospital providing medical care. The 39th Separate Guards Medical Detachment of the Airborne Forces (VDV) reports a complex and dangerous operation performed on a paratrooper. Военкор Котенок shares a video discussing challenges faced by Russian soldiers, including inadequate footwear and camouflage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad published a video from a military-clinical hospital of the "West" Grouping of Forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes a photo message showing Russian civilians at a patriotic event, implying their potential for recruitment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники publishes photo of a recruitment billboard placed on a public toilet in Buryatia, reflecting unconventional and potentially desperate recruitment methods. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a photo message encouraging donations for the "VDV Day" collection, indicating continued reliance on public support for military needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo video reports on the death of Gennady Starunov, 'Teacher of the Year,' in the SVO zone, highlighting his contributions to military personnel and morale, likely a propaganda piece for internal consumption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes photo message "ПОМОЖЕМ ПОЗАБОТИТЬСЯ О САМЫХ БЛИЗКИХ" likely related to aid for RF servicemen/families. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow News (Internal): Новости Москвы provides a video about "what you can't google now." Новости Москвы reports that registration fees for vehicles and driver's licenses will increase from September 1, 2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Population Decline: TASS reports the global population will begin to decline from the 2040s. TASS publishes a photo message stating China's population may significantly decrease to 500-700 million. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Public Wi-Fi: TASS reports the State Duma proposed a program for public Wi-Fi access points. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Omsk Scam: TASS reports a scam where 2.9 million rubles were stolen from an 18-year-old under the guise of flower delivery, with part of the money allegedly allegedly sent to aid Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sochi Detainee: ASTRA reports a Sochi resident arrested for "discrediting" the RF army was transferred to a psychiatric hospital. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kursk Oblast: TASS reports the military court sentenced Lithuanian Bartkevichius to 23 years in absentia. Два майора reports the acting governor of Kursk Oblast reports RF AD engaged Ukrainian targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sporting Event: TASS reports Russian synchronized swimmers took second place at the World Championship. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS publishes a photo message of Russian synchronized swimmers winning a technical program at the World Championship. This is a civilian event, likely used for internal morale and normalcy. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
  • Beer Production: TASS publishes a photo message claiming Russia has displaced Germany from the top five largest beer producers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Law Enforcement Detention: Север.Реалии reports that detentions related to the case of leaking official information occurred in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Krasnodar Krai, and Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports former Vice-Governor of Chelyabinsk Oblast Alexander Bogashov was detained in an abuse of power case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports police officers accused of bribery in the Baza editor-in-chief case have been brought to Moscow for investigation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad publishes photo messages regarding top officials detained in Chelyabinsk Oblast for bribery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports former Vice-Governor of Chelyabinsk Oblast Bogashov is being transported to Moscow for pre-trial detention. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Azerbaijan Claims: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Azerbaijan has submitted evidence to Russia of torture and murder of two Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Военкор Котенок reports Damascus formally requested help from Turkey to strengthen defense and fight terrorists. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Kotsnews replies to Baku's claims. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia: TASS reports mass events have been suspended due to threats of assassination attempts on servicemen. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volgograd Oblast: Два майора reports a Telegram channel author in Volgograd was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Steven Seagal: TASS reports actor Steven Seagal has left one of his last projects in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kaluga Oblast: Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on a crime involving migrant children, framing it as a "new trend." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports that families of children who abused a minor girl in Kaluga Oblast may be deported; parents of one attacker are illegally in the region. This is a local internal security issue linked to migration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Blagoveshchensk: Два майора publishes video and photo messages claiming the exposure of a "PLO-OPG" (presumably criminal group) involved in harassing locals. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novgorod Oblast: TASS reports the arrest of Konstantin Kuranov, Minister of Transport and Road Management, on bribery charges. ASTRA provides photo confirmation. Colonelcassad reports that the Minister of Transport and Road Management of Novgorod Oblast, Konstantin Kuranov, has been arrested in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Trump on China: TASS reports Trump stated he would likely visit China in the near future and did not exclude talks with Putin during this visit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Trump on Obama: TASS reports Trump called on the US Department of Justice to investigate Obama for manipulating intelligence data. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Conscript Testimonial: Оперативний ЗСУ publishes a video of a Russian conscript detailing poor treatment and discipline. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники publishes a video titled "❗️«Мы подписали контракт под давлением»: как обманывают срочников". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники video reports a "maniac" caught after seven years was "released to war," reflecting potential issues with recruitment quality and internal security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Lipetsk Oblast: Игорь Артамонов reports an air danger regime has been introduced across the entire Lipetsk Oblast. Igor Artamonov reports a UAV threat on Yelets and Yelets district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Lipetsk Oblast (NEW): Igor Artamonov reports the lifting of the "Threat of UAV attack" and "Yellow level" alerts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Railway Operations (New): TASS reports that all previously delayed trains of the "Grand Service Express" company have returned to their schedule. TASS reports a locomotive overturned on the access tracks of Amur Thermal Power Plant-1 in Khabarovsk Krai; no casualties reported. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chechnya Hydropower: Kadyrov_95 publishes video showing the opening of a 10 MW hydropower station. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares video of Kadyrov discussing freedom of speech and building mosques. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • POW Return (NEW): TASS reports that two RF servicemen in need of medical attention have been returned from Ukrainian-controlled territory. ASTRA corroborates this. Colonelcassad reports on a video featuring a Russian soldier recently released from Ukrainian captivity, who details alleged mistreatment. MoD Russia confirms the return of two RF servicemen in medical need from Ukraine, as per a 2 June 2025 agreement. TASS publishes video of a captured Ukrainian officer claiming UAF sent soldiers to their deaths to create passage for "normal" troops. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video features a Russian marine, identified as a millionaire who lost a leg in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, complaining about his new life and "greeting" his comrades still fighting. This is a Ukrainian information operation highlighting RF casualties and internal divisions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Financial Sector (NEW): TASS reports that the Central Bank is considering lowering the key interest rate from 20% to 18% on July 25. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UNESCO (NEW): TASS reports Russia regrets the US withdrawal from UNESCO. TASS also reports the UNESCO Director-General's statement that the US withdrawal was "expected" and would have no financial consequences is surprising. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mural in Stavropol: Colonelcassad reports that a mural of journalist Semyon Eremin, who died during reporting in the SMO zone, was unveiled. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • US NNSA Cyberattack (NEW): TASS reports the US National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) was subjected to a hacker attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Khabarovsk Krai Police (NEW): Police of Khabarovsk Krai publish video messages related to domestic law enforcement, likely fraud investigations. Also published photo messages regarding an educational event (museum visit) for children organized by the public council of the regional department, featuring historical police vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Japan PM Resignation (NEW): TASS reports Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will resign. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS later reports Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba denied reports of his imminent resignation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • US DoD AI Contracts (NEW): Colonelcassad reports US Department of Defense contracts with major AI companies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Gagauzia (NEW): TASS reports the Gagauz Parliament should respond if Chisinau initiates the election of a new head of the autonomy after the Gutul verdict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sino-Russian Relations (NEW):: TASS reports China's Ministry of Commerce made representations to the European Commissioner for Trade Policy and Economic Security regarding anti-Russian sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • TASS and ASTRA report 33 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions overnight, with Bryansk Oblast confirming two of these. Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports 33 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed overnight over RF regions. Colonelcassad reports 33 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted and destroyed overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports on student family status and transition to young family status after graduation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Yakutia (NEW): ASTRA publishes video of a comedian from Yakutia fined for jokes about the Russian language and colonialism. This reflects internal RF legal measures against perceived dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chelyabinsk Oblast: TASS reports the detention of former Vice-Governor Alexander Bogashov in a case of abuse of power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • EU Visa/Entry (NEW): TASS reports control over stay in EU countries for citizens of a number of countries, including Russians, will be tightened with the introduction of a new biometric entry/exit system (EES) at the border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Supreme Court (NEW): TASS reports the Russian Supreme Court banned the "International Satanism Movement" at the request of the Prosecutor General. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Север.Реалии reports a court in Russia recognized the "International Satanism Movement" as extremist, stating no such movement exists. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: TASS reports the EU is considering 30% tariffs on $100 billion worth of US goods if no agreement is reached. This is a significant economic development that could impact global trade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Операция Z quotes Mike Johnson saying Washington doesn't want to be involved in the Ukraine conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: TASS reports USAID contraceptives worth $10 million will be burned in France instead of being sent to poor countries. This is an unusual civilian-related news item, possibly selected by RF to highlight perceived Western waste or inefficiency. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: "Two Mayors" reports on a workers' protest at Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant in Turkey over unpaid wages, which turned into clashes with gendarmerie. This is a significant internal security incident in a key RF-supported project. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sumy Oblast: RF conducted a strike on Sumy community's Kovpakivskyi district. Two explosions heard, likely from KABs, impacting residential area and causing damage to apartment building. Three injured, now increased to 12. Emergency services on site. 5 multi-story buildings, a shopping center, and 18 cars damaged. Threat of aviation munitions for Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. Colonelcassad reports "Anvar" unit operating in the border areas of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, providing drone footage of UAF positions. Enemy reconnaissance UAV from the northeast towards Sumy, with possible AD activity. KAB launches confirmed on Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy: RBC-Ukraine and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publish video and photo evidence showing the aftermath of KAB strikes, confirming three injured, including a child. STERNENKO reports a woman was killed in Sumy due to a drone attack. RBC-Ukraine reports RF attacked with drones in daylight, damaging a medical facility and playground. A woman and a child were injured. Alex Parker Returns publishes a video showing a street scene in Sumy, likely for propaganda purposes. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia launched another strike on Sumy Oblast, resulting in power outages. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing emergency responders aiding injured individuals, confirming 1 fatality and 10 injured. ASTRA reports a woman died and others were injured due to a massive Russian UAV strike. Suspilne reports explosions. (UPDATE): Sumy partially without power after RF attack, per acting mayor. (UPDATE): Оперативний ЗСУ reports that part of Sumy is without power due to an enemy attack on civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Yastrubyne, Hrafske of Sumy region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports RF attacked Sumyoblenego, causing power outages. Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms the attack on Sumyoblenergo. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports threat lifted for Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast moving southwest. This is a new aerial threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Zelenskiy / Official reports on restoration efforts in Sumy Oblast after Russian drone attacks, expressing gratitude to repair crews and energy workers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: "Slyvochny Kapriz" posts photo messages from Sumy - Kondratovka. While vague, this indicates focus on the Sumy region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy Direction: "Два майора" publishes FPV drone footage claiming to target a UAF soldier. "Два майора" publishes a photo message from "Arkhangel Spetsnaza" on the Sumy direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes photo messages showing a tactical map for the Sumy direction, indicating potential RF focus or movement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad publishes a drone video of the Sumy direction, showing military vehicles, including pickup trucks and KAMAZ, along with drone activity, explosions, and damaged structures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the 210th Separate Assault Regiment used drones to destroy a well-hidden dugout in Sumy Oblast. This is a specific report of successful UAF drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Varachino, Sumy Oblast: Операция Z and "Воин DV" claim Russian army liberated Varachino. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Два майора publishes map claiming Varachino in Sumy Oblast liberated. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Рыбарь reports "Severians" liberated the village of Varachino in Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports UAF lost units of two elite brigades and an assault regiment in Varachino. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia claims units of Sever Group of Forces liberated Varachino (Sumy region). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews reports Russian army liberated Varachino in Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Старше Эдды claims Russian army liberated Varachino in Sumy Oblast. This is a consistent RF claim. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy Oblast: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy UAVs in northern Sumy Oblast with possible AD activity. Air Force reports a likely reconnaissance UAV heading north towards Sumy city. Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. Means for their destruction have been engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kryvyi Rih: Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation is controlled as of morning 22.07.25. Oleksandr Vilkul provides a briefing summary. Олександр Вілкул reports explosions due to mass Shahed attack. Суспільне reports explosions. Николаевский Ванёк reports the 7 UAVs heading to Kryvyi Rih were neutralized. Николаевский Ванёк reports "minus" on the Mopeds (Shaheds) towards Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports Shahed UAV impacts in several locations, including an enterprise and private homes. Оперативний ЗСУ reports enemy attacked Kryvyi Rih with Shaheds in several places. Mayor Vilkul reports situation controlled as of 230443Z JUL 25. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports fires after a UAV attack, citing the mayor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Andriivka: Военкор Котенок shares civilian testimonial from displaced person, highlighting destruction and humanitarian impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Krasny Liman: Сливочный каприз publishes photo messages regarding Krasny Liman - Zelyonaya Dolina. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Hrekivka, Kolodyazi, Zelena Dolyna, Myrne, Yampolivka, Torske and towards Serebryanka in Lyman direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Odesa: Colonelcassad publishes multi-panel image related to Odesa, likely showing areas affected by strikes or for future targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Crimean Shores: "Два майора" publishes video showing military-style inflatable boat with personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Novomikhailovka: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of a woman mourning her son, a Russian SMO participant who died storming Novomikhailovka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Grushevske, Donetsk Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF army occupied Hrushevske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Dachne, Donetsk Oblast: Народная милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles. Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes video claiming Ukrainian forces attempted a "show-off" near Dachne, potentially implying propaganda footage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Dachne in Pokrovsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Toretsk Direction: Олексій Білошицький provides video captioned "Adventures of patrolmen in Toretsk direction🤙". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Dyliyivka, Toretsk, Oleksandro-Kalynove and Rusyn Yar in Toretsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Lugansk (LNR): Рыбарь reports on an incident in Lugansk. Mash на Донбассе reports a court recognized the "Kastus Kalinovsky Regiment" as a terrorist organization. Colonelcassad reports a court in DNR recognized the "Kastus Kalinovsky Regiment" as a terrorist organization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Lithuania-Belarus Border: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА publishes graphic on Lithuanian military exercises near Belarus border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Воин DV reports on "News from the Baltics," providing additional context to potential regional tensions or information operations regarding the Baltic states. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast: STERNENKO reports a gas worker, Igor Goncharenko, was killed by Russians. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Holubivka, Stepova Novoselivka and Zahryzove in Kupyansk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a tactical map with text indicating "successes near Kupyansk," suggesting continued RF pressure or gains in this direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Привид Хортиці shares video of night drone hunts by 15th Brigade NGU "Kara-Dag" in Kupyansk direction, with explosions on target. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Zaporizhzhia Front: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes photos showing continued reinforcement. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a video message about strengthening the front, including increasing the defense fund to 3 billion hryvnias, constructing an anti-drone road on the Orikhivskyyi highway, and plans for over 200 km of such infrastructure. Mentions a meeting with the Minister of Defense and President Zelenskyy's decision on Ukraine's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention (anti-personnel mines), stating daily production and delivery of 1,000-2,000 mine components. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a video of shooting competitions for veterans and their families in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting support for veterans and community resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Kamyanske, Novoandriyivka of Zaporizhzhia region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes multiple photo messages depicting youth engaged in an outdoor recreational activity (kayaking, hiking) with a focus on community building. This is likely a morale/social cohesion initiative, not military-related. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Pokrovsk: Рыбарь channel publishes videos claiming to show Russian infantry. Воин DV publishes drone footage showing an armored vehicle being engaged. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны publish video claiming fierce battles, increased pace of advance, and destruction of enemy equipment and personnel. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video claiming RF DRG activity on the road. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Poltavka, Novotoretske, Novoekonomichne, Myrolubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Novoukrayinka, Zvirove, Udachne, Zelenyy Kut, Dachne and Oleksiyivka in Pokrovsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video of "WORMBUSTERS 414th UAV Brigade "Birds of Madyar" destroying Russian occupiers on motorbikes in Pokrovsk direction. This confirms continued UAF anti-personnel drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Moscow: Север.Реалии publishes a video showing a protest in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора publishes video depicting a large gathering of civilians in a Kyiv street at night, holding signs and participating in a protest/public demonstration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukraine (Internal Affairs): Стрелков Игорь Иванович reports Ukrainian authorities have mandated UOC to declare a break with ROC by August 18, or face prohibition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: The Office of the Prosecutor General reports that the former head of the Department of Social and Veteran Policy of the Kyiv City State Administration was served suspicion for embezzling 75 million UAH from the "Care. Towards Kyivans" program. This highlights internal corruption investigations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kaluga Oblast: Alex Parker Returns reports a crime involving migrant children. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Luhansk Direction: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is crowdfunding for two copters for artillery reconnaissance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• General Staff Summary (NEW): Оперативний ЗСУ and Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publish summary information as of 08:00 23 JUL 25 regarding the Russian invasion, including maps and textual overlays detailing operational developments, enemy attacks, and friendly force actions. This indicates regular, standardized reporting from UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes photos of young officers from the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade (DSHV) undergoing intensive combat training, including firing various weapons, tactical actions, and grenade throwing. This confirms continued UAF training and readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kamenskoye - Plavni (NEW): "Сливочный каприз" publishes a photo message showing a map of the Kamenskoye - Plavni area, indicating "Temporarily closed" civilian cafes and a football field. This suggests civilian presence in or near an area of operational interest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Media Detention (NEW): ASTRA and Север.Реалии report the detention of a regional editor of URA.RU, Igor Sergeev, in Yekaterinburg. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kuban Counter-Terrorism (NEW): TASS reports the FSB prevented a terrorist attack at an oil refining industrial facility in Kuban. Военкор Котенок publishes video footage of FSB detaining an individual in Krasnodar Krai suspected of preparing a terrorist act. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z video shows the apprehension of an individual by FSB, likely related to the prevented attack in Kuban. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Delegation Expansion (NEW): TASS reports Zelenskyy expanded the Ukrainian delegation for negotiations with RF from 12 to 14 people, adding a representative of the ombudsman and another from the General Staff. RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU corroborate Zelenskyy approving the delegation for Istanbul talks. TASS reports the third round of direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in Istanbul is scheduled for 19:00 local time today. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 confirms the third round of negotiations between Ukraine and RF in Istanbul will take place today at 19:00 Kyiv time. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports the time and place for Ukraine-RF negotiations in Istanbul have been announced, and Operatyvnyi ZSU reports the talks are expected to begin around 19:00 in the Ciragan Palace. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad confirms Istanbul negotiations time and place. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок reports Erdogan's press service confirms negotiations time. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns confirms Istanbul negotiations time and place. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ТАСС video shows enhanced security measures at Ciragan Palace in Istanbul, confirming preparations for РФ-Ukraine negotiations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ТАСС reports RF delegation has departed Moscow for Istanbul. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ukrainian and Russian delegations have departed for Istanbul. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок reports Turkish officials (FM, intelligence chief) may participate in RF-Ukraine negotiations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine video features Dmitry Peskov stating RF is ready to discuss a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, indicating willingness to engage in high-level talks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Peskov stated a high-level meeting is possible after memorandums are agreed upon. This reinforces the conditional nature of the Putin-Zelenskyy meeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports the main topic of Istanbul negotiations will be a leader's meeting. This suggests Ukraine's high expectation for direct dialogue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора reports on the Istanbul negotiations as the "third meeting" for today, indicating continued engagement and track-keeping. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports memorandums and exchanges will be the focus of Istanbul negotiations. This suggests a concrete agenda for the talks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Военкор Котенок reports the Ukrainian delegation is already in Turkey. This indicates UAF's commitment to the negotiation process. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Turkish Foreign Minister, Intelligence Chief, and Chief of General Staff will attend Ukraine negotiations. This highlights the high-level Turkish involvement and commitment to mediation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports The New York Times believes a compromise between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely at the evening negotiations. This signals a pessimistic outlook from a Western source. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports Ukraine will hold another meeting in Turkey without Russians, citing a source. This indicates a potential parallel or follow-up diplomatic track. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports the Ukrainian delegation is already in Turkey. This is a repeat confirmation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports the Ukrainian delegation, after arriving in Turkey, is holding a meeting with Erdogan in Ankara, citing "Ukrainska Pravda." This indicates high-level diplomatic engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad publishes photo messages indicating the situation near Ciragan Palace in Turkey, prior to negotiations, showing the media presence. This reinforces the public nature of the talks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS video reports dozens of journalists are awaiting the start of RF-Ukraine negotiations at Ciragan Palace. This reinforces the public and high-profile nature of these talks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports the Russian delegation has arrived in Istanbul for negotiations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports the Russian delegation has arrived for negotiations in Istanbul. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports Zelenskyy will insist on an immediate ceasefire during negotiations in Istanbul. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Operativny ZSU reports Ukraine will insist on an immediate and complete ceasefire during negotiations in Turkey today. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports Ukraine's delegation discussed the security situation, defense cooperation, and efforts for a just peace with Turkish President Erdogan. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports Yermak states a meeting between Zelensky, Trump, Erdogan, and Putin is necessary for real peace talks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Radar Station Assessment (NEW): "КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno" publishes a photo message with the caption "Where have the radars gone?", implying potential destruction or movement of radar systems, requiring further BDA. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• RF "Made with Soul" Propaganda (NEW): "Старше Эдды" publishes a photo message captioned "Made with soul for real Russian men," featuring a tactical belt, indicating continued RF internal propaganda to bolster military identity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian Post Pensions Scheme (NEW): TASS reports the Accounts Chamber concluded "Russian Post" might have diverted pensions and social benefits to third-party accounts for income. TASS reports "Russian Post" denies diverting pension funds, stating all payouts are on time. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF Targeting in Hardest Directions (NEW): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video claiming continued destruction of occupiers in the hardest directions, showing drone footage of a Russian flag, a soldier running, and an explosion near a dugout, followed by a crest of the 210th Separate Assault Regiment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Президентська бригада ЗСУ video shows "fox hunting" on the front line, where occupiers are the prey. This implies effective UAF targeting of RF personnel, likely via drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukrainian Constitutional Review of NABU/SAP Law (NEW): Оперативний ЗСУ reports a constitutional submission is being prepared in the Verkhovna Rada regarding the law limiting NABU and SAP powers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Propaganda Drone Video (NEW): Старше Эдды publishes video titled "Somewhere on enemy territory," showing a drone strike on a UAF trench system. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Рыбарь publishes video titled "Somewhere on enemy territory," showing a drone strike on a UAF trench system. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video showing fiber-optic FPV drone entering and striking an RF trench system. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Recruitment (NEW): МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники publishes a photo message of recruitment advertisement on a toilet in Buryatia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Belarusian Opposition Figure (NEW): Север.Реалии reports political prisoner Nikita Losik, convicted in the "Belarusian Gayun" case, has been moved from Belarus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Social Internal Dynamics: Новости Москвы reports people with ADHD are more successful in business due to quick decision-making and risk-taking. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Alex Parker Returns photo message implies something can be "fixed," civilian. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) ASTRA fundraises for salaries. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
• Akhmat Special Forces Propaganda: «Зона СВО» video showcases aerial reconnaissance footage of damaged buildings and military equipment, including drones, with Akhmat iconography, used for morale and propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukrainian Exodus Narrative (RF Propaganda): Басурин о главном claims Ukraine is losing citizens due to flight, as a symptom of systemic crisis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian Internal Politics (Peskov Statements): TASS video shows Dmitry Peskov making statements; context implies these are official Kremlin positions, though specific military relevance is indirect. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF ATV Operations (South-Donetsk): Два майора video shows military-style ATV with armed personnel in wooded area, indicating use for reconnaissance or transport in difficult terrain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video shows a Russian drone attempting to chase a UAF reconnaissance buggy. This is a confirmed RF tactical drone operation against UAF light transport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukraine Kherson War Crimes Investigation: Офіс Генерального прокурора video details investigations into war crimes in Kherson Oblast, identifying 5 high-ranking RF commanders responsible for 113 civilian deaths. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Legislation (Extremism): TASS reports Putin signed a law equating extremist communities to extremist organizations, tightening internal control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian Post Alleged Pension Diversion: Новости Москвы reports "Russian Post" suspected of diverting pension funds, indicating potential internal corruption issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF Counter-Artillery (Kurakhivka Direction): STERNENKO video shows drone footage of UAF destroying Russian artillery in Kurakhivka direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Avdiivka Tactical Situation (Weather Influence): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows damaged residential building in Avdiivka with tactical personnel, mentioning "hot weather" (40C) and drone activity, suggesting environmental factors affecting operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukrainian Internal Protest Narrative (RF Propaganda): Рыбарь video shows protests in Kyiv against NABU/SAP law, captioned "Ghost of Maidan," an RF info op to portray Ukrainian instability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Рыбарь publishes multiple video messages with the caption "Ghost of Maidan," showing large public protests in Kyiv. This is a clear RF information operation aiming to portray internal Ukrainian instability and dissent, particularly against the NABU/SAP law. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• NEW: Воин DV drone footage shows an attack on a Ukrainian pickup truck near Yanvarskyi by 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, "Vostok" Grouping. This confirms continued RF tactical drone engagement against UAF transport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ (Shamanbat Special Unit, GUR MO) video shows close-quarters destruction of an enemy assault group. This indicates successful UAF special operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• NEW: Mash на Донбассе reports a hurricane (storm) noticed by residents of Belosaraiskaya Kosa, indicating a weather event in the Sea of Azov coastal area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Mash na Donbasse reports a downpour with hail hit DNR, especially Makeevka. This confirms adverse weather conditions impacting the region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares video of makeshift water collection system in Donetsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports the Verkhovna Rada has established July 28 as the Day of Remembrance for those tortured or killed in captivity. This is a significant commemorative measure by Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Ukraine General: Night operations provide low visibility, favoring RF UAV and missile saturation tactics. Kharkiv Oblast expects worsening weather (heavy rains, thunderstorms), which could impact ground operations. Oleg Synegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, reports significant weather deterioration is possible. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kyiv City: RBC-Ukraine and Оперативний ЗСУ publish videos showing a crane collapse due to strong winds/storm. RBC-Ukraine also reports heavy rain causing flooded streets. RBC-Ukraine reports 5 individuals hospitalized due to bad weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Odesa: RBC-Ukraine reports severe flooding due to heavy rain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dry Landscape: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video showing a dry, somewhat barren landscape with smoke plumes in the distance. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Russia: Heavy rainfall in Moscow Oblast indicates adverse weather conditions. Bridge collapse in Moscow region due to heavy rains confirmed. Significant flooding confirmed in Moscow. TASS reports 15 "Tavriya" trains delayed in communication with Crimea. Train delays at Paveletsky Station due to weather. All trains to Black Sea resorts on July 22 will follow schedule. Старше Эдды implies human intervention in Moscow's heavy rains. Новости Москвы publishes video showing heavy rain. ТАСС publishes videos showing flooded metro tracks at "Bagrationovskaya" and "Kuntsevskaya" stations. Оперативний ЗСУ publishes multiple videos showing severe urban flooding. ASTRA publishes videos showing severe urban flooding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kabardino-Balkaria: ASTRA and Operatyvnyi ZSU report a mudslide in Tyrnyauz and a damaged bridge support due to severe flooding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donbas Drought: Mash на Донбассе provides photo messages of the dried-up Khanzhenkovo reservoir. Mash na Donbasse also reports on clearing a blockage under a bridge in Nizhnyaya Kryanka, likely related to storm/flood damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Illegal Logging (Ukraine Carpathians): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports large-scale illegal logging in Ukrainian Carpathians caused 55.8 million UAH in damages. This is an environmental issue, not directly war-related. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• NEW: Mash на Донбассе reports a hurricane (storm) noticed by residents of Belosaraiskaya Kosa. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Mash na Donbasse reports a downpour with hail hit DNR, especially Makeevka. This indicates adverse weather conditions impacting RF-occupied territory in Donetsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF:

  • Air Defense (AD): Fully engaged nationwide against multi-vector RF aerial assault. AD actively tracked multiple missile groups across multiple oblasts. Kyiv AD actively engaged approximately 10 inbound Shaheds and multiple missiles. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast AD shot down 14 UAVs. President Zelenskyy reports UAF AD destroyed over 20 missiles and the "overwhelming majority" of drones (344 of 623 total aerial targets). Southern Defense Forces report 11 Shaheds destroyed overnight (NEW). Air Force reports 224 targets shot down/suppressed. Germany to provide 5 Patriot systems and ammunition. Norway ready to provide significant additional funding. UAF AF reports UAV threat for Kharkiv Oblast. Sili Oborony Pivdnya Ukraїny video shows Ukrainian soldiers operating a ZU-23 anti-aircraft gun countering Russian Shahed drones, claiming over 30 air targets neutralized. Air Defense is active in Odesa, engaging Shahed UAVs. Netherlands will make a significant contribution to US Patriot AD systems. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video of 31st Brigade anti-aircraft drone systems successfully attacking Russian drones in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. As of 06:00Z, 26 enemy UAVs have been shot down/suppressed. Air Force confirmed 42 Russian UAVs attacked overnight. Enemy UAV in Black Sea, course to Odesa, AD engaged. UAV from northeast towards Sumy, with possible AD activity. Reconnaissance UAVs on northeast of Chernihiv and southeast of Kryvyi Rih. Air Force reports a likely reconnaissance UAV heading north towards Sumy city. Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. Means for their destruction have been engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showcasing the "Pomsta" (Revenge) Brigade of the State Border Guard Service (DPSU) using drone interceptors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes a video showing a drone flying in the sky, with Ukrainian emblems and a QR code for donations, captioned "Signum unit of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade continuously stands guard over our sky!". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports Germany will transfer two Patriot systems if they can be quickly replaced. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports Germany's willingness to transfer two Patriot systems. Военкор Котенок reports German Defense Minister Pistorius is ready to quickly supply Kyiv with two Patriot systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes a video showing a cockpit view from a fighter jet, likely a MiG-29 in Ukrainian Air Force markings. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The crash of a Mirage 2000 in Volyn Oblast due to technical malfunction, confirmed by UAF Air Force. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports 7 UAVs heading to Kryvyi Rih were neutralized. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports "minus" on the Mopeds (Shaheds) towards Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports the lifting of UAV threat for all regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New AFU Air Force reports indicate that 27 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed, and 18 more were lost/suppressed by EW. Total of 71 RF drones attacked Ukraine overnight from four directions. ASTRA and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also report 71 RF drones attacked overnight from four directions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southeastern direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ДБР розпочало розслідування щодо обставин падіння літака “Mirage-2000” на Волині. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Pistorius stated there is money for Patriot systems for Kyiv, but the systems themselves need to be found. This confirms the financial commitment but highlights procurement challenges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) photo message confirms Ukraine will not receive Patriot systems until spring 2026. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports that Ukraine will not receive the announced Patriot systems from Trump before spring 2026, citing Spiegel. This indicates a potential delay in the delivery of critical air defense assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Ukraine will not receive new Patriot systems before spring 2026, citing Spiegel. This reinforces the concern about delayed Patriot deliveries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора cites Spiegel, indicating the same concern about delayed Patriot deliveries to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Czech Prime Minister Fiala states Czechia will help Ukraine strengthen its air defense for more effective drone combat. This indicates continued support for UAF AD capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими informs Ukrainian diplomats about work on prisoner and civilian releases. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України video shows drone operators of the 77th Separate Airmobile Brigade destroying Starlinks, antennas, equipment, dugouts, and personnel on the Lyman direction. This indicates effective UAF counter-C2 and anti-personnel drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: STERNENKO reports VIDARR unit of the 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade destroyed a basement and a decision-making center ("burned the katsap's decision-making center") on the Lyman direction. This indicates effective targeting of RF C2 nodes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Services: DSNS (State Emergency Service) are actively engaged across multiple oblasts. Minister of Internal Affairs reports 15 fires due to Russian shelling. KMVA confirms rescue and emergency work ongoing nationwide. Cleanup and emergency services are working in Sumy. Confirmed images and videos from RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU show DSNS personnel actively engaged in firefighting and damage assessment operations in Odesa. DSNS Ukraine confirms three injured, including a child, in Sumy. STERNENKO confirms one person injured in Odesa. DSNS and local authorities are actively engaged in Kramatorsk. Олексій Білошицький reports paramedics assisting a civilian in Sloviansk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing emergency responders aiding injured individuals. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): RBC-Ukraine publishes photo messages showing DSNS personnel engaged in firefighting operations at a market in Kharkiv Oblast. ASTRA publishes multiple photo messages from the market in Velykyi Burluk, Kharkiv Oblast, showing DSNS personnel fighting fires and extensive damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA publishes multiple photo messages and video showing firefighters extinguishing a blaze in Mykolaiv Oblast following RF drone and artillery attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) photo messages show damage to private homes and multi-story buildings in Kryvyi Rih after overnight drone attacks, with emergency services assisting. This provides BDA and confirms ongoing recovery efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Control Measures: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats lifted, localized drone alerts persist. Public warnings for shelter ongoing. Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) providing updates; Lukyanivska metro station now fully reopened. Brig. Gen. Hennadiy Shapovalov appointed new commander of UAF Ground Forces. Ukraine plans to open four new embassies. Zelenskyy states new negotiations with Russia planned for Wednesday in Istanbul. Odesa Oblast Military Administration calls for residents to take shelter. ZAPORIZHZHIYA OBLAST MILITARY ADMINISTRATION HAS LIFTED AIR RAID ALERT. Kryvyi Rih mayor states situation is controlled. Generall Staff continues daily photos promoting nationwide moment of silence. RBC-Ukraine reports President Zelenskyy introduced NSDC decision on moratorium on baseless checks and interference by state bodies in business activities. Rustem Umierov will lead the Ukrainian delegation for negotiations with Russia. Rada considers bill to limit NABU/SAP powers today. Zelenskyy states focus on prisoner exchanges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports on the moratorium on business inspections. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы reports on a proposal in the State Duma to allow pregnant women and mothers with children to park in handicapped spaces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports on President Zelenskyy's expectations for upcoming prisoner exchange negotiations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): Zelenskyy's video address touches on the NABU/SAP law, stating the anti-corruption infrastructure will work and the Prosecutor General is set to ensure punishment for those who break the law. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports that Zelenskyy gathered all heads of law enforcement and anti-corruption agencies, indicating his focus on internal security and governance issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports that Zelenskyy has approved the composition of the delegation for negotiations with RF in Istanbul. This confirms UAF's commitment to diplomatic engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Security Services: SBU and OGP conducting special operation to "neutralize Russian influence on NABU." Detention of NABU detective head (Ruslan Magamedrasulov) suspected of aiding RF. Over 70 searches conducted. SBU initiated comprehensive check on adherence to state secrets legislation in SAP. General Director of "Forests of Ukraine" served suspicion for illegal enrichment. Detention of NABU elite unit "D-2" employee suspected of spying for Russian special services confirmed. President Zelenskyy emphasized need for legal architecture to hold Russia accountable for war. G7 Ambassadors alarmed by NABU scandal. Ukrainian police helped neutralize pro-Russian hacker network NoName057(16). A court has remanded NABU employee Viktor Husarov into custody without bail. An employee of NABU's "most elite closed unit," suspected of treason, has had a pre-trial detention measure chosen. NABU Director Krivonos called on Zelenskyy not to sign bill limiting NABU and SAP powers. Prosecutor General's Office reports new facts of restricted information leaks from NABU. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора publishes a photo message stating the General Prosecutor's Office is systematically holding accountable individuals working for the enemy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes photo messages about an international police special operation that identified a "pseudominer" of facilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the court arrested the head of a NABU unit, suspected of aiding the aggressor state. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора publishes photo messages related to a criminal organization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора also reports holding a meeting with G7 representatives, SBU, and SBI. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports that international partners has received answers regarding the work of Ukrainian law enforcement agencies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes a video showing a protest in Kyiv regarding the recently adopted bill limiting NABU and SAP powers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes photos and videos of protests in Kyiv, Dnipro, and Lviv against the bill. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a video showing a protest in Kyiv, with a cynical pro-RF caption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС questions why Parliament (263 people) forgot why Russia attacked Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) SBU Head Vasyl Maliuk discusses the NABU case in a press conference. Maliuk commented on the situation with bill №12414, stating "No one liquidated anyone." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photos showing SBU Head Vasyl Maliuk at a meeting with G7 ambassadors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) President Zelenskyy signed bill №12414, which makes NABU and SAP dependent on the Prosecutor General. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The status of bill №12414 on the Verkhovna Rada website has been changed from "signed by the President" back to "being prepared for signature." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also clarifies the status of bill №12414. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports that the law on NABU and SAP has been published in the Rada's "Voice of Ukraine" newspaper, confirming its enactment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the scandalous law on limiting NABU and SAP independence has been published. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Кирил Буданов comments on the NABU and SAP law, stating the nation loses if torn by internal contradictions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) President Zelenskyy comments on the law regarding NABU and SAP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zelenskyy has directly addressed the NABU situation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of President Zelenskyy stating "NABU and SAP will work, and it's important that the Prosecutor General is set to ensure the inevitability of punishment for those who go against the law." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): Colonelcassad publishes multiple videos showing protests in Kyiv against the law limiting the powers of NABU and SAP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes photo message of OECD warning Ukraine that attacks on anti-corruption bodies will negatively impact defense investments and reconstruction funding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports OECD warning about negative impact of anti-corruption body attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора publishes photo messages reporting the extradition of a scammer who sold drones for AFU, with damages over 50 million UAH. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора publishes photo messages reporting the liquidation of a transnational criminal organization that defrauded Czech citizens via call centers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the heads of NABU and SAP emphasized that the recently adopted legislative changes significantly limit their independence during a meeting initiated by the Office of the President. This confirms ongoing concerns within the anti-corruption framework. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes photo message citing Kelly M. Kellogg, daughter of US Special Representative, criticizing Kyiv for "killing" NABU. This is an RF info op targeting Ukrainian anti-corruption issues and international perception. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: STERNENKO reports that the German Foreign Ministry stated Ukraine's independence and strength of anti-corruption institutions were key factors in reforms and will be evaluated by their progress. This is a significant international statement on the NABU/SAP controversy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Germany and France are concerned by the adopted NABU/SAP law. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Foreign Volunteers: 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" claims 2,000 Colombians fighting in its ranks. TASS claims UAF deployed a platoon of "Latin American mercenaries" to Aleksandrovgrad, DNR, and then claims they fled. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing Ukrainian soldiers, identified as being of Latin American origin, participating in combat training exercises on Sumy region, with their commander stating 2,000 Colombian servicemen have come to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" promotes transfer into the brigade via "Army+". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Resource Requirements: UAF National Guard's "Rubizh" brigade crowdfunding for "destroyed property and equipment." Zelenskyy emphasizes need for increased domestic production of weapons and drones (50% within six months). Ukraine needs $6 billion to cover gap in weapons procurement. Britain transferred $200 million of $940 million in air defense assets and artillery shells. Urgent fundraiser for drones for UAF 32nd Steel Brigade. French companies ready to start drone production in Ukraine. Canada will allocate $14.6 million USD for maintenance of Ukrainian tanks and finance Ukrainian defense industry. Canada will allocate $15 million for Leopard 2 tank repairs. NATO can provide additional funding for Ukrainian army. Netherlands provides €200M for interceptor drones and €125M for F-16 maintenance. Ukraine will need at least $120 billion for defense next year. РБК-Україна publishes a video appeal from the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade's artillery unit, requesting Electronic Warfare (EW) systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO provides photo and video messages showing a new batch of 417 drones delivered to the front line. STERNENKO continues to promote fundraising for drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна publishes a photo message stating that Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko claims up to 90% of strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this year were carried out by drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) DeepState reports Ukraine will need at least $120 billion for defense next year. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is crowdfunding for two copters for artillery reconnaissance for the 63rd Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO promotes a raffle for a drone pendant. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO further emphasizes the need for continued funding for drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Pentagon negotiating with multiple countries for Patriot system supplies for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO makes a call for daily donations for "rusorez" (Russian-cutter), likely referring to drones or other weaponry. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Нафтогаз" received a loan from PrivatBank to purchase gas for winter. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes photo message of Syrskyi stating AFU experience acute shortage of shells and armored vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ukraine has signed 4 contracts for drone interceptor production totaling over 3 billion UAH, per Minister of Defense Shmyhal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна photo message confirms Ukraine has signed drone interceptor contracts worth 3 billion UAH. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: РБК-Україна video highlights the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade's artillery unit appealing for EW systems and logistical support. This is a critical and specific resource requirement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 states Ukrainian soldiers are requesting donations for drones and Starlink, citing critical need. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: РБК-Україна photo message confirms urgent collection for drones for 32nd Steel Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Training: UAF 61st OMBr tank crews conducting rigorous training. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes multiple photos and captions about the role of a sergeant in the military. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade presents photos of soldiers during adaptation period, likely new recruits or those returning to front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Президентська бригада ЗСУ publishes a video emphasizing teamwork and recruitment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ photo message highlights ongoing training for the 116th Separate Mechanized Brigade, preparing units for real combat conditions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes photos of young officers from the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade (DSHV) undergoing intensive combat training, including firing various weapons, tactical actions, and grenade throwing. This confirms continued UAF training and readiness, and the focus on officer development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF 63rd Mechanized Brigade reports liquidation of 33 RF personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chernihiv: Colonelcassad reports TCC personnel violently detaining a man. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна provides an explanation from the AFU on why TCC conduct visits at concerts and exhibitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UK Sanctions: The UK has introduced new sanctions against 135 tankers belonging to Russia's "shadow fleet." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Losses: General Staff of UAF provides estimated total combat losses for RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine publishes statistical report on RF estimated losses. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports +970 enemy personnel eliminated daily. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes infographic showing estimated total RF combat losses as of 23.07.25. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Serhiy Syrskyi states that at least 80,000 Russian military personnel have been killed or wounded during the Kursk operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports Syryskyi will not resign after reaching 60 years of age. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns photo message includes a caption stating "Agent Syrsky is going to continue working," likely mocking reports about his age or performance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports Syrsky stated that UAF may go on counteroffensive again if Ukraine receives more military aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA photo message quotes UAF Commander Syrskyi stating at least 80,000 Russian servicemen were killed or wounded in the Kursk operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade: Video suggests active counter-drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showcasing the "Pomsta" (Revenge) Brigade of the State Border Guard Service (DPSU) using drone interceptors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Domestic Production: Domestic 155-mm Bohdana-BG howitzers have entered service with the 40th Separate Artillery Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Psychological Operations: 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України released a video appealing to RF soldiers to surrender. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Corruption: President of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine suspended. Investigation into illegal coal mining completed. Official of "Forests of Ukraine" notified of suspicion for illegal enrichment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Drone Recruitment: DeepState publishes a recruitment video for the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade's unmanned systems unit. DeepState promotes an 8-day free IT professions test drive. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Convict Mobilization: Approximately 9500 convicts have joined the AFU. Оперативний ЗСУ publishes a video showing a former convict detailing poor treatment and being forced into assault roles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukraine-Denmark Drone Interceptor: Ukraine and Denmark are developing an AI-powered drone interceptor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Prosecutor Investigation: Investigations launched into attacks on Odesa, Donetsk, and Sumy regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Currency Exchange Rates: Exchange offices lowered the USD rate and raised the EUR rate. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна publishes photo message showing new USD and EUR exchange rates. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ramstein Meeting: Generals Staff publishes photo messages indicating participation of Ukrainian Minister of Defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Soldier with Weapon: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes photos aiming to boost morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chief of General Staff at Diplomatic Event: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes photos of Major General Andrii Hnatov speaking at a plenary session for heads of foreign diplomatic institutions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pension for Military Personnel: Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes information on pensions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • F-16 Project: Повітряні Сили ЗС України publishes video showcasing an F-16 fighter jet and mentions a "new project." RBC-Україна reports Air Force received first unique mobile complexes for F-16 maintenance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zelenskyy Meeting: Zelenskiy / Official publishes photo messages regarding a meeting on Ukraine's negotiation results and prisoner exchanges. Zelenskiy / Official posts a video of President Zelenskyy interacting with military personnel and civilians, presenting awards. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also publishes the same video from President Zelenskyy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Occupant Targeting: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing aeroreconnaissance of the 4th battalion of the 101st Brigade targeting a Russian occupant. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes drone video showing a munition drop impacting a group of five Russian occupiers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes a video of a Russian soldier performing a "deadly salto" after being targeted by a drone ("Birds of Madyar") in the Pokrovsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • STERNENKO Tactical Action: STERNENKO provides video from "Sanitary Zone Flying Skull" showing drones on fiber optics flying into enemy positions. STERNENKO publishes drone footage showing an engagement using fiber-optic drones. STERNENKO publishes a video showing an FPV drone strike on a Russian military individual. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes a video of an attempted Ukrainian drone ambush on a Russian pickup truck that failed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes drone footage showing an FPV drone strike on a Russian 'Bukhanka' vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes video of drone strike on enemy equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video of Ukrainian military personnel in a buggy engaging and damaging a Russian FPV drone. This demonstrates UAF adapting counter-drone tactics with agile ground vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Friendly Civilian Infrastructure: Олександр Вілкул publishes multiple photo messages related to thermal modernization of education facilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Military Administration (OTU "Kharkiv"): ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts a message stating "Treason is needed by the enemy, but the traitor is needed by no one!" ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes drone footage showing the Khartia brigade's engagement against enemy personnel. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, publishes photo messages about strengthening partnership with the French Republic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts an informational message on the operational situation in the Kharkiv operational zone as of the morning of 23.07.2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: OTU "Kharkiv" publishes multiple photo messages of Ukrainian soldiers with the caption "Strong. Devoted. Ours." This is a morale-boosting effort. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Front Reinforcement: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes photos showing reinforcement efforts. 🇺🇦 Запопорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a video message about strengthening the front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues and lifts immediate air raid alert. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Medical Front Forum: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes multiple photo messages from a forum titled "Medical Front: experience, challenges, future." 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes photo messages regarding the professional holiday for miners and metallurgists. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes photo messages regarding a memorandum signing between the Regional State Administration, Coordination Center for Family Education and Child Care, UNICEF, and Save the Children in Ukraine, highlighting social support efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • FPV Storm: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes a video titled "FPV-storm from Slobozhansky paratroopers!". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NABU/SAP Legislation (UPDATE): STERNENKO publishes photo messages showing the list of MPs who voted for the bill. STERNENKO publishes a video of a parliamentary session where the bill was voted on. Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns claim Zelenskyy has signed the law liquidating the independence of anti-corruption bodies. STERNENKO reports the court chose pre-trial detention without bail for Ruslan Magamedrasulov. Zelenskiy / Official states the anti-corruption infrastructure will work without Russian influence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Prisoner of War Affairs: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) publishes multiple photos from a meeting with the families of soldiers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) publishes photos from a meeting with the families of soldiers from the 214th Separate Assault Battalion "OPFOR". This confirms ongoing efforts to support POW families and maintain morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Public Health Campaign: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a public service announcement video on the dangers of tobacco and nicotine products. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Video showcasing tactical effectiveness: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video with the caption "😎🇺🇦". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Inter-regional cooperation: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes photos regarding a visit from Myroslav Biletskyi, Head of Zakarpattia Oblast Military Administration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Israeli MFA Visit to Kyiv: РБК-Україна reports Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar has arrived. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms the visit. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar has arrived. RBC-Ukraine video indicates Ukraine and Israel will hold strategic dialogue regarding the Iranian threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна video shows Israeli Foreign Minister condemning Russian strikes on civilians, reinforcing international condemnation of RF actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ukraine and Israel will deepen cooperation in energy, cybersecurity, and defense, per Sybiha at a press conference with Israeli FM Sa'ar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns video ironically captions Israeli FM condemnation of Russian strikes, likely a Russian info op attempting to discredit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ASTRA publishes a photo message showing the Israeli Foreign Minister meeting a Ukrainian serviceman who lost his family in an Iranian attack. This is a significant diplomatic gesture, reinforcing international support and highlighting the Iranian threat as perceived by Israel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Robot Medevac: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes a video demonstrating the 5th Separate Assault Kyiv Brigade using a ground robot for medical evacuation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows unique footage of a ground robot evacuating a wounded soldier, covering 14 km. This confirms innovative battlefield medical support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна video shows unique footage of wounded soldier evacuation by a robotic system. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security Event: RBC-Ukraine reports the commander of the National Police assault brigade "Lyut" (Rage), Maksym Kazban, died in a traffic accident. STERNENKO publishes photos regarding the death of Maksym Kazban. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes multiple photo messages confirming the death of Maksym Kazban in a traffic accident in Kramatorsk, including a tribute from the Head of the National Police of Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zelenskiy / Official comments on the death of Maksym Kazban. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Volunteer for AFU: ASTRA reports a Russian national who fought for the AFU was unable to enter Poland. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo message claims Ukrainian refugees are being deported from Poland. This is an RF info op aiming to highlight perceived Western abandonment of Ukrainian refugees. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian POW Return (NEW): TASS and ASTRA report that two RF servicemen in need of medical attention have been returned from Ukrainian-controlled territory. Colonelcassad reports on a video featuring a Russian soldier recently released from Ukrainian captivity, who details alleged mistreatment. MoD Russia confirms the return of two RF servicemen in medical need from Ukraine, as per a 2 June 2025 agreement. TASS publishes video of a captured Ukrainian officer claiming UAF sent soldiers to their deaths to create passage for "normal" troops. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Romania (NEW): RBC-Ukraine reports Romania is forming a voluntary contract army. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kyiv Internal Security Incident: RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU report an individual detained for opening fire in a residential building courtyard in Kyiv's Podil district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Northern Command Reassignment (NEW): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that leadership of defense in Northern Ukraine has been transferred to Operational Command "West," commanded by Brigadier General Volodymyr Shvedyuk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • VDV Morale: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes photos depicting VDV personnel in a positive, high-morale light. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • AN-2 Biplane: Fighterbomber publishes video of an AN-2 biplane assisted by a tractor. While primarily civilian, AN-2s have been used in military roles (e.g. transport, reconnaissance) and their presence could indicate limited logistical or ISR operations in areas with austere airfields. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)

• RUF:

  • Deep Operations (UAV/Missile/Aviation Munitions): RF continues to demonstrate an extremely high capability for widespread, high-volume, multi-vector aerial assault. The confirmed use of Tu-95MS strategic bombers for cruise missile launches (24 confirmed), alongside continued massed Shahed drone attacks (426 total), and the re-engagement of MiG-31K for Kinzhal ballistic missile use indicates a sustained and robust deep strike capability. Their ability to simultaneously target Northern, Eastern, Central, and significantly Western Ukraine demonstrates coordination and resource availability. The confirmed use of X-101 with cluster munition warheads in Chernivtsi represents an escalation in lethality. The claimed use of FABs on UAF reserves in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovets Oblast indicates continued air-to-ground precision strike capability. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025. Colonelcassad's claim of a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv confirms tactical adaptation to target UAF domestic defense production. RF has adapted to use KABs against Sumy, Dobropillia and Kramatorsk. Continued use of strike UAVs against Eastern Dnipropetrovsk (Samarivskyi district, now Synelnykivskyi district), Poltava Oblast, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. The confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa indicates RF willingness to hit urban centers without specific military targets, or a failure of precision targeting. Ballistic missile threat confirmed for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and now Dnipropetrop sk Oblast (Samarskyi district). Kotsnews reporting on "Harpies" and their kinetic effect on a village, indicating a new, potent loitering munition or PGMs. MoD Russia also claims destruction of a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad's claim of "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk and associated smoke plume indicates continued widespread use of Shaheds against various targets. Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. Старше Эдды publishes drone video showing an FPV drone strike on a building, followed by a fire, and the Ukrainian flag on a damaged structure. Colonelcassad's claim of LMUR use against a UAV command post in Antonivka, Kherson Oblast, indicates the deployment of precision-guided missiles against high-value UAF C2 targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports 7 Shahed UAVs flying towards/through Shyroke/Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports another 7 Shahed UAVs in Beryslav district, heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Олександр Вілкул reports explosions in Kryvyi Rih due to mass Shahed attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ and ASTRA report UAV attacks on Novocherkassk railway station and GRES (thermal power plant). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) One RF Shahed UAV reported near Posad-Pokrovske (Kherson Oblast). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Shahed UAV impacts reported in Kryvyi Rih, including an enterprise and private homes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF UAVs in Eastern Kharkiv continue movement south. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction and warns of threat of aviation munitions for frontline oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): STERNENKO publishes multiple videos and photo messages of UAV attacks on railway infrastructure, a GRES, and a Rostelecom building in Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes multiple videos and analysis confirming UAF drone attacks on Novocherkassk railway station and GRES, stating it is the main power source for the region. Video shows large fire and possible explosion. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also publishes videos of these attacks, confirming strikes on railway infrastructure, GRES, and a Rostelecom building. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) AFU Air Force reports 71 RF drones attacked overnight from four directions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Russian tactical aviation active in northeastern direction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy tactical aviation active in the eastern direction and warns of aviation munition threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad video shows animated scheme of strikes on Ukraine 22-23 JUL 25, mapping out RF targeting patterns, including "Geranium" flight vectors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tactical Drone Capabilities (Enhanced, Counter-Drone, FPV Precision, Fiber-Optic Drones, Robotic Ground Vehicles): The reported destruction of a UAF D-20 howitzer in Kherson by an RF FPV drone ("Tuman") demonstrates RF's continued and effective tactical integration of drones for precision engagements against UAF artillery assets. The new focus on Rostov Oblast becoming a leader in UAV development, with military tech transfer to civilian applications and expanded production, highlights RF's strategic intent to massively scale its drone capabilities and industrial base. The FPV drone strike on a UAF soldier in Sumy direction and two injured in Belgorod by FPV drone further demonstrates precision targeting capabilities. MoD Russia's video of "Feniks" drone in action further confirms active development and deployment of tactical drones for reconnaissance and kinetic effects. Colonelcassad's claim of destroying a UAF UAV command post near Chasiv Yar indicates continued RF counter-drone capabilities. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights counter-drone capabilities. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's drone footage from Chasiv Yar direction indicates continued tactical drone operations. Воин DV's video claiming destruction of armored vehicles and personnel in Alexandrovgrad by 14th Guards Spetsnaz and 5th Guards Tank Brigade further emphasizes RF's advanced tactical drone integration for kinetic effects. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R. publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles near Dachne, potentially with drones. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports the downing of a heavy "Baba Yaga" drone in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Nova Kakhovka drone strike, as per WarGonzo, shows RF drone strike capabilities against ground targets. Colonelcassad's video on "Harpy" drones confirms their tactical deployment for strikes on personnel and vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes drone video claiming the 305th Artillery Brigade using a Lancet loitering munition to strike a UAF Dana self-propelled howitzer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a photo message showcasing a new anti-drone system from Rostec, capable of localized signal suppression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок claims destruction of a Ukrainian boat with personnel in Kherson direction using a fiber-optic FPV drone. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS publishes video showing FPV drone operators from "Rubikon" center striking AFU armored vehicles and personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном publishes a video showcasing the 'Omich' (Омич) robotic complex, a tracked ground vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes drone footage showing military vehicles moving along a road, some appearing to be trucks or transport vehicles, with evidence of anti-drone netting/camouflage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Народная милиция ДНР publishes a video claiming successful FPV drone strikes by a special forces unit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes drone footage from the "Centre" group showing explosions targeting enemy vehicles (SUV, tank) and positions (BABA-YAGA drone, STARLINK terminal). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's appeal for FPV drones and Starlink suggests these are critical, in-demand assets for RF frontline units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes drone footage from the "Centre" group on the Krasnoarmeyskoye direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad showcases Chinese "FeiLong" series loitering munitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes thermal/night vision drone footage showing an explosion engulfing a lead vehicle in a convoy on a dirt road, indicating continued kinetic strikes by RF drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Старше Эдды publishes video titled "Somewhere on enemy territory," showing a drone strike on a UAF trench system. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Рыбарь publishes video titled "Somewhere on enemy territory," showing a drone strike on a UAF trench system. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора publishes a photo of a "shotgun container" from "Umeltsy-frontu" 3D printing. This indicates localized small-scale production of drone munitions or adaptations for FPV drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV FPV drone footage shows a successful strike on a camouflaged vehicle, indicating continued RF precision targeting capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: MoD Russia publishes video showing FPV drone operators of the "West" grouping destroying a Ukrainian "Akatsiya" self-propelled howitzer in Kharkiv Oblast. This is a specific report of successful RF tactical drone engagement against UAF artillery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare (Aggressive, Psychological, and Exploitative, Adaptive, Expanding Scope, Exploiting Internal Ukrainian Issues, Targeting Foreign Policy Debates, Leveraging US Politics, Internal Political Control, Normalization): RF continues to use its military actions to bolster its narrative. Messaging from milbloggers directly aims to terrorize the population and undermine Ukrainian morale, while simultaneously attempting to project overwhelming force and futility of Ukrainian resistance. Dissemination of claimed UAF equipment losses (e.g., Bradley BMP) and drone losses ("Baba Yaga" drones), including the destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit in South-Donetsk direction and a D-20 howitzer in Kherson, and a UAF UAV command post, and AFU armored vehicles near Dachne, further reinforce this narrative. RF state media leverages UAF drone attacks on Russian territory to portray Russia as a victim and justify its actions. RF sources promote narratives of internal corruption and social friction within Ukraine (now specifically claiming NABU loses Western "roof" due to Trump, and Zelenskyy signed law liquidating anti-corruption bodies). Propaganda focuses on internal RF stability and development. Continued use of historical revisionism. Claims of ground advances (Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Malaya Tokmachka claim, Torske claim, Nikolayevka), Starytsia, Varachino, Hrushevske, Novotoretske, Krasnoarmeysk infiltration, Konstantinovskoye, Poltavka, Dzerzhinsk, Torske, Komar) and effective DRG ambushes in contested areas (Pokrovsk, Krasnoarmeysk) and Kupyansk are heavily publicized. RF milbloggers employ cynical/mocking language to demoralize Ukrainian audiences. RF attempts to exploit perceived US weakness in drone tactics. Internal RF information operations counter perceived "traitors." RF channels publish content projecting public support. TASS actively uses claimed UAF POW statements to portray desertion and low morale within Ukrainian ranks. RF is attempting to leverage historical monuments in Moldova to portray Ukraine as allied with Nazis. TASS is attempting to influence US political discourse by amplifying statements like Jeffrey Sachs' comments on Trump and Ukraine. TASS is now actively promoting civilian news, such as Russia's representation at an international music contest, likely to normalize the information environment and divert attention from military operations. The publication of a POW interrogation video by TASS (Yevgeny Popelyshkin) indicates RF's continued and adaptable capability to exploit captured personnel for psychological operations, aiming to sow discord and undermine UAF command effectiveness. RF will continue to leverage civilian testimonials, as seen from Kursk Oblast and Mash on Donbas, and now Andriivka, to portray itself as a victim of Ukrainian aggression and to justify its military actions to its domestic audience. RF is increasingly using cultural and religious narratives to foster internal unity and traditional values, as seen with promotion of Orthodox Christian traditions and news about spiritual-moral culture in schools. TASS claims average of 400 UAF strikes on RF civilian objects per day. The new reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia is likely to be leveraged by RF to show continued European reliance and economic influence. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed to project stability and resilience despite high-level losses. RF milbloggers will likely continue to question the effectiveness of Western AD (e.g., Patriot against Kinzhal). Alex Parker Returns' military recruitment videos demonstrate continued information operations to attract personnel. TASS reporting on detentions for monument desecration in Crimea is part of this narrative. TASS reporting on the appeal of a billionaire in a bribery case also frames the internal legal system as functioning. The FSB's claims of thwarting Ukrainian special services are intended to project internal security effectiveness. The detention of a former presidential candidate's staff member highlights RF's control over its political information space. The new criminal cases against a former Deputy Minister of Defense demonstrate the state's willingness to publicize internal corruption issues. News from Moscow criticizing EU "brain drain" highlights economic information operations. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. TASS reports that the acceptance of applications for IT deferrals from military service has begun. ASTRA reports a pensioner from Izhevsk was sentenced for treason but released due to health. TASS reports State Duma adopted law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, reinforcing the narrative of external threats and justifying internal security measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора reports the author of a Volgograd Telegram channel was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism, demonstrating continued legal enforcement against online content. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on migrant crime in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump, by rejecting Ukraine's NATO membership, swayed it towards negotiations with Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном highlights a State Duma Deputy's request to investigate a perfume company for potentially funding the AFU, indicating RF's expanding scope of internal information operations to identify and suppress perceived threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z reports that Ukrainian MP Skorokhod admitted that TCC "beat mobilized people to death" across Ukraine, an RF information operation aimed at creating internal Ukrainian disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns posts an image with text that translates to "The puzzle has come together. Inside information.", which likely refers to an internal RF information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video showing film director Igor Bogomolov, husband of Ksenia Sobchak, calling the war with Ukraine "the luck and happiness of our generation," and noting Putin awarded him the title "Honored Artist of Russia" the next day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a photo message containing a statement from the former Polish Land Forces Commander Skrzypczak, highlighting his calls to attack Belarus and Kaliningrad, used to vilify foreign military figures and reinforce the narrative of external threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump is likely to visit China soon, and did not exclude talks with Putin during this visit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump called on the US Department of Justice to investigate Obama for manipulating intelligence data related to US elections and Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad states that the newly appointed PM Yulia Svrydenko's claim that corruption is exaggerated in Ukrainian society is a lie, continuing the "Ukrainian corruption" narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews publishes a graphic titled "EVENING BELL" with text criticizing Ukrainian authorities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports the US House Speaker states no sanctions bills against Russia will be considered until Trump requests it, indicating RF's continued influence operations on US foreign policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном posts a photo message with the caption "Гудбай, ЮНЕСКО! Навсегда?", referring to Trump's potential withdrawal of the US from UNESCO. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the death of musician Ozzy Osbourne, which is a civilian news item, but its dissemination by TASS could be a low-effort attempt to project normalcy and divert attention. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) MoD Russia publishes a video showing a captured AFU serviceman discussing foreign mercenaries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo illustrating a Duma legislative session, accompanied by text detailing new fines for searching extremist content, including VPNs, and claiming it will reduce fraudulent calls from Ukrainian call centers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Рыбарь posts a photo message titled "Цена предательства" (The Price of Betrayal) with a stylized graphic, indicating an ongoing information operation focused on loyalty and deterrence against perceived betrayal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's immediate claim of "liquidation" of a UAF brigade commander, contradicting Ukrainian reports, indicates a rapid and adaptive information operation to capitalize on UAF losses, regardless of cause. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine's reporting on the "chief ideologist of Putin" rewriting history indicates a Ukrainian counter-narrative focusing on RF's information manipulation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z reports a Ukrainian MP criticizing anti-corruption protests, which is amplified by RF milbloggers to further push the narrative of Ukrainian internal division. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок posts a narrative on why Russians do not accept the "brutalization" of Ukraine, aiming to justify the conflict to a domestic and potentially international audience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок publishes a video purportedly showing Ukrainians melting down memorial plaques, which is a strong information operation intended to portray Ukrainians as desecrating history and engaging in "Nazism." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Иран claims it does not seek nuclear weapons, but will continue uranium enrichment, a statement RF will leverage in diplomatic messaging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) «Зона СВО» publishes a video titled "Я русский офицер," featuring a Chechen fighter promoting Russian identity and combat operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Russia regrets the US withdrawal from UNESCO, anticipating political and financial consequences. TASS also reports the UNESCO Director-General's statement that the US withdrawal was "expected" and would have no financial consequences is surprising. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that the "Russian Kherson" underground organization claimed that UAF in Kherson Oblast intentionally settles near civilians. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatsiya Z posts a video related to accusations against Maxim Divnich, a Russian figure, which is then framed to criticize the accusers, likely part of an internal Russian information operation to discredit perceived opponents or maintain public support for certain figures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS has published a new video of a surrendered Ukrainian soldier, claiming that Ukraine is sending invalids with prosthetics to fight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's recent video of a Russian POW recounting alleged harsh treatment in Ukrainian captivity is a new, active information operation aimed at discrediting Ukrainian forces and potentially influencing international bodies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): RF milbloggers are publishing video of Russian military training African officers with motivational speeches. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): TASS publishes new video of a captured Ukrainian soldier claiming commanders promised "girls" for successful mission completion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS quotes Ukrainian security sources claiming that some mercenaries terminated their contracts after encountering the frontline. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS publishes video of a captured Ukrainian officer claiming UAF sent soldiers to their deaths to create passage for "normal" troops. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS publishes a video of a surrendered Ukrainian soldier asking Zelenskyy to end the war. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): TASS reports on social policy regarding student family status and transition to young family status after graduation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): Basurin about the main publishes a photo message in "History Day" format focusing on the "liberation of Ukraine" by Russian troops in 1944. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA publishes video of a comedian from Yakutia fined for jokes about the Russian language and colonialism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU publish video messages showing Donald Trump discussing increasing US arsenal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 provides a morning greeting to "family" (audience). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatsiya Z and WarGonzo publish a photo message from Marjorie Taylor Greene, stating "Zelensky is a dictator" and calling for an end to Ukraine funding amidst Kyiv protests. This is a direct RF information operation leveraging Western political figures to sow discord and undermine support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA publishes video of an animal rights activist who emigrated to France, implying internal RF repression or societal issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts about "Krestopad" (crossfall) implying a counter-narrative to perceived desecration of religious symbols. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Moldovan police detained "Chance" party leader Aleksey Lungu at a protest against authorities' pressure on the "Victory" bloc. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора publishes narrative from Рыбарь about the "true reasons" for pressure on NABU in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews video shows Gennadii Starunov, an RF serviceman and "Teacher of the Year," who was killed in the SVO zone, used for propaganda to glorify military service and sacrifice. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns photo message includes a caption stating "Suvorov, who predicted Putin's regime would fall on July 23, 2015. This is clearly a misdated, likely intentionally misleading, or irrelevant statement." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном photo message features State Duma Deputy Andrey Gurulyov, likely for internal political messaging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Рыбарь posts 53rd episode of "Base" podcast, suggesting continued dissemination of RF narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Kotsnews reports Official Baku's relations with Russian media. This suggests potential for RF influence in the information space of a geopolitically relevant country. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Рыбарь video shows a man in traditional Ukrainian clothing being apprehended by law enforcement officers, implying domestic issues in Moldova. The caption "Moldovan lawlessness" suggests an RF info op to discredit Moldova's government. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Рыбарь publishes a repeat of the "Moldovan lawlessness" video. This indicates emphasis on this narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Alex Parker Returns video showing an outdoor physical altercation with RF watermark is likely internal RF law enforcement information. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Alex Parker Returns video of a man speaking about captured soldiers and Putin's brutality is likely an RF information operation to discredit anti-war sentiment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: STERNENKO photo message about "Russians are only capable of such posters" refers to RF propaganda efforts, indicating UAF awareness and counter-messaging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы photo message about "Muscovites' vacation this year looks like this" is likely an RF internal propaganda piece normalizing domestic life amidst conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ТАСС video memorializing Ozzy Osbourne is a civilian news item, likely aimed at normalizing RF media output. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) NEW: Рыбарь photo message "False threat, convenient game" indicates an RF information operation, likely related to the NABU/SAP controversy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message claiming "Ukrainians" were officially allowed to write "Russia" with a lowercase "r." This is an RF info op attempting to provoke and mock Ukrainian identity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: "Two Mayors" posts a photo message about "incredible" developments amidst military actions, referencing a football game. This is a civilian news item used to project normalcy. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
  • Artillery Systems (New): Colonelcassad's claim of the use of 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from North Korea indicates a continued and potentially expanding capability to field new or additional artillery systems. MoD Russia's video confirms Uragan MLRS use. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS firing rockets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports continued RF use of artillery and FPV drones in Nikopol district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes video showing a Grad MLRS crew eliminating enemy targets on the right bank of Dnepr river. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes video showing RF artillery and UAVs destroying satellite communication equipment, personnel, and strongpoints in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes video claiming a TOS-1A crew inflicted fire damage on a UAF stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: MoD Russia video showcases Msta-S self-propelled howitzers destroying communication hubs, strongholds, dugouts, armored hardware, and manpower of AFU, confirming continued effective RF artillery use. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Border Operations: The identified "Anvar" unit operating in Sumy/Chernihiv border regions demonstrates RF's persistent capability for localized reconnaissance and targeting operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in Chernihiv Oblast, and UAVs approaching Nizhyn. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Igor Artamonov reports a UAV threat on Yelets and Yelets district in Lipetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes new video of "Anvar" unit operating in the border areas of Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts, showing reconnaissance and drone strikes on UAF positions, including a 120-mm mortar position. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Legal Measures & Internal Control: TASS reporting on the in absentia charging of a blogger for promoting terrorism in Dagestan indicates RF's continued capability and willingness to use legal mechanisms to control internal narratives. The Khabarovsk Krai Police reporting on a criminal case indicates continued focus on domestic law and order. The detention of a hacker in Novosibirsk indicates continued focus on cyber security. TASS reports searches at Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko's home, suggesting internal anti-corruption or security operations. "Два майора" discusses sentencing related to illegal migration, indicating internal security focus. The reporting on the death of the Supreme Court Chairman highlights the functioning of the RF legal system. The detentions in Crimea for monument desecration underscore RF's efforts to control historical narratives. The detention of a migrant in Tyumen and the appeal of a billionaire in a bribery case indicate application of internal law enforcement. The FSB's claims of thwarting Ukrainian special services are intended to project internal security effectiveness. The detention of a former presidential candidate's staff member highlights RF's control over its political information space. The new criminal cases against a former Deputy Minister of Defense for corruption highlight RF's legal mechanisms for internal accountability. Putin's toughening of rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports indicates increased state control over economic interfaces. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. TASS reports that the acceptance of applications for IT deferrals from military service has begun. ASTRA reports a pensioner from Izhevsk was sentenced for treason but released due to health. TASS reports State Duma adopted law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. (UPDATE): TASS reports 12 UAVs were destroyed overnight over Tula Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Duma adopted an amendment fining citizens for disclosing state secrets in media. TASS reports no plans to block foreign messengers, but compliance with requirements. TASS reports investigators opened a criminal case against an internet channel administrator for extortion and public justification of terrorism. TASS reports the military court sentenced Lithuanian Bartkevichius to 23 years in absentia for desecrating a military grave and other terror-related crimes in Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, reinforcing the narrative of external threats and justifying internal security measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора reports the author of a Volgograd Telegram channel was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism, demonstrating continued legal enforcement against online content. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the chief editor of the Ryazan online publication "Svoy Kolokolny" (Svoy kolokolnya) Komarov was detained in an extortion case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports a local resident was detained in Veliky Novgorod for planning to join the "Russian Volunteer Corps." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a draft law for year-round conscription has been submitted to the State Duma. Новости Москвы publishes a photo message stating a draft law for year-round military conscription has been submitted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора publishes video claiming a "PLO-OPG" (presumably criminal group) was exposed in Blagoveshchensk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the arrest of Konstantin Kuranov, Minister of Transport and Road Management for Novgorod Oblast, on bribery charges. ASTRA provides photo confirmation. Colonelcassad reports the arrest of Konstantin Kuranov, Minister of Transport and Road Management of Novgorod Oblast, for bribery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports blogger Dud is заочно (in absentia) accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. ASTRA reports Yuri Dud is заочно (in absentia) accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo message stating the State Duma has approved a law to block communications for subscribers with frozen bank accounts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes a photo message related to the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that a second suspect, producer Tatyana Lukyanova, has been identified in the case of the Baza editor-in-chief. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that the adopted law on terminating advance payments for mobile operators does not contain norms for blocking communications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS and ASTRA report the return of two medically-needing RF servicemen from Ukraine, signaling functioning POW exchange mechanisms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The law on NABU and SAP being published in the Rada's newspaper means it has legally come into force. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports pediatrician Nadezhda Buyanova, convicted for "fakes" about RF Armed Forces, is in the same penal colony as director Evgenia Berkovich. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports the US National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) was subjected to a hacker attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): Police of Khabarovsk Krai publish video messages related to domestic law enforcement, indicating continued focus on internal stability and security. (NEW): TASS reports a person died and nine were injured in a residential building fire in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Pромтрансбанк declared bankrupt by RF Central Bank. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Maria Zakharova commented on the cancellation of Gergiev's concert in Italy using biblical quotes, which is an example of RF using cultural and religious narratives in its diplomatic messaging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Север.Реалии reports a bill for year-round conscription has been submitted to the State Duma. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports the FSB prevented a terrorist attack at an oil refining industrial facility in Kuban. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): ASTRA and Север.Реалии report the detention of a regional editor of URA.RU, Igor Sergeev, in Yekaterinburg. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports the Accounts Chamber concluded "Russian Post" might have diverted pensions and social benefits to third-party accounts for income. TASS reports "Russian Post" denies diverting pension funds, stating all payouts are on time. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports former military representative Sergei Bolgarev sentenced to 8.5 years for a 14 million ruble bribe. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports Moldovan police detained "Chance" party leader Aleksey Lungu at a protest against authorities' pressure on the "Victory" bloc. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA photo message on a Russian serviceman attempting to rape a pensioner in Donetsk highlights domestic crime attributed to military personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Север.Реалии reports the founder of "Prostranstvo Politika" (Political Space) Kirill Nenashev left Russia after a search related to the "Revolt-center" case, indicating continued internal repression and pressure on civil society. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the Supreme Court banned the "International Satanism Movement." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports there are several tens of thousands of Satanists in Russia, mostly small groups or individuals. This is a domestic sociological assessment, possibly related to internal security concerns or propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора publishes photo messages on "incredible" developments amidst military actions (presumably football related). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Север.Реалии reports Putin signed a law equating extremist communities to extremist organizations due to one participant's activity, indicating tighter internal control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ТАСС photo messages confirm Putin has granted Belarusian citizens permanently residing in Russia the right to participate in local elections, indicating political integration efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: WarGonzo photo message "Companion" is likely an RF information operation, potentially relating to internal affairs or recruitment. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Генпрокурор Кравченко stated that NABU and SAP's jurisdiction will not be removed without analysis of materials and investigation progress, and that Chernyshov's case will not be taken away. This suggests some internal pushback or clarification on the controversial law. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports the Investigative Committee is seeking the arrest of Baza journalists Trifonov and Lukyanova. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ASTRA reports an Estonian court sentenced a Russian citizen to six years for espionage on behalf of the FSB. This is a foreign counter-intelligence success against RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Counter-UAV Capabilities: The successful repulsion of UAV attacks in Rostov-on-Don, Millerovo, Donetsk (Rostov Oblast), and Azov district, as well as three UAVs over Tula Oblast, indicates RF's continued capability to defend against UAF drone incursions. RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight, including nine over Bryansk Oblast. The FPV drone attack in Belgorod and on Samara Oblast indicates that while RF has AD capabilities, UAF drones can still penetrate and cause damage. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights counter-drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a video showing a military aircraft, likely a fighter jet, in flight during low-light conditions. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a photo message showcasing a new anti-drone system from Rostec, capable of localized signal suppression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS and ASTRA report that RF AD forces destroyed 51 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions between 21:00 and 23:40 MSK on July 22. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): TASS reports 12 UAVs were destroyed overnight over Tula Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): TASS and ASTRA report 33 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions overnight, with Bryansk Oblast confirming two of these. Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports 33 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed overnight over RF regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок reports 33 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Fighterbomber posts a video analysis of a helicopter image. The context "Tactical Analysis of Helicopter Image" suggests this is a detailed examination, likely for military intelligence purposes regarding aircraft. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Port Operations in Occupied Territories: The continued operation of Mariupol port, even if understaffed, demonstrates RF's capability to restore and utilize critical infrastructure in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Projection: The escort operation by the Steregushchiy-class corvette "Boykiy" demonstrates RF's capability to project naval power and secure logistical routes. (UPDATE): RF milbloggers are publishing video of Russian military training African officers with motivational speeches, with a naval vessel in the background. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes video showing a significant naval exercise with multiple Russian warships and military vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes video confirming the "Iyulsky Shtorm" operational drills by the Russian Navy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports RF Navy has begun "July Storm" military exercises, citing the enemy Ministry of Murder (a play on "Ministry of Defense"). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Kotsnews reports the fleet is going for major exercises. This aligns with and reinforces previous reports of the "July Storm" drills. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • ELINT Capabilities: Colonelcassad's video claiming successful UAF liquidation via radio intercepts indicates RF possesses and utilizes effective Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) capabilities for targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes video of a special forces unit operating in an unspecified area, indicating advanced capabilities in targeting, including enemy positions, equipment, and drones, with high precision and effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Воин DV video "Somewhere on enemy territory" showing tied POW and combat gear, indicates possible RF special operations or POW capture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Maneuver Capability (Tactical): TASS video showing an RF APC maneuvering in open terrain indicates continued tactical ground force mobility. Басурин о главном's report of Russian reconnaissance entering Krasnoarmeysk indicates a capability for deep infiltration by special groups. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video confirms Russian reconnaissance and DRG activity in Krasnoarmeysk. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Сливочный каприз" publishes video of a destroyed settlement with a person carrying a Russian flag, captioned "Konstantinovka - Belaya Gora," suggesting RF ground presence and tactical gains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном publishes video claiming "underground forces" are burning UAF SUVs from Kramatorsk to Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Z комитет + карта СВО publishes a tactical map of the Krasnoarmeyskoye direction, indicating areas of control and advances around #Suvorovo. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF advances in Konstantinovskoye and Poltavka directions confirm continued ground pressure and advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Рыбарь's tactical maps indicate continued RF ground operations and advances in the Konstantinovka and Pokrovsko-Mirnogradske directions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок publishes a tactical map for the Dzerzhinsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes a video showing an RF serviceman raising a Russian flag in Belaya Gora, confirming RF presence and likely consolidation of control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z publishes aerial reconnaissance footage of a rural area, indicating military activity, explosions, and damaged buildings, focused on Chaiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video claiming RF DRG activity on the road to Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes drone footage from the "Centre" group on the Krasnoarmeyskoye direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS publishes a video showing drone footage from a military operation, depicting RF soldiers planting flags in a captured or secured area, claiming the "liberation" of Komar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes video claiming destruction of UAF 118th Separate Mechanized Brigade equipment in Novoselivka area, including a MAX-PRO armored vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) DeepState reports RF advanced near Oleksandrovgrad, Komar, Voskresenka, Dyliiivka, Torske, Karlivka, and Leonidiivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes video of a Russian soldier discussing the "capture" of Nikolayevka in DNR, including drone footage of the village. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Рыбарь publishes map-based video analysis of advances and combat near Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast), indicating continued RF ground pressure in the Kharkiv direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zvиздец Мангусту provides an overview of RF Ground Forces "Vostok" Grouping, discussing its estimated strength and equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes video showing soldiers (one injured) in a forested area identified as "enemy territory". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Zapadne in South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Holubivka, Stepova Novoselivka and Zahryzove in Kupyansk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Hrekivka, Kolodyazi, Zelena Dolyna, Myrne, Yampolivka, Torske and towards Serebryanka in Lyman direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka in Sieversk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Chasiv Yar in Kramatorsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Dyliyivka, Toretsk, Oleksandro-Kalynove and Rusyn Yar in Toretsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Poltavka, Novotoretske, Novoekonomichne, Myrolubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Novoukrayinka, Zvirove, Udachne, Zelenyy Kut, Dachne and Oleksiyivka in Pokrovsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Voskresenka, Yalta, Piddubne and Zelene Pole in Novopavlivka direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian army assaults in Kherson direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces repelled 11 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad provides an update on the front line situation, likely indicating continued RF advances or consolidation of positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing RF assault attempts being repelled in one direction, highlighting effective UAF defense against enemy ground maneuver. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 states "Kherson Direction," implying ongoing tactical discussions or activities in this sector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Long-Term Military Budgeting: Budanov's report on Russia's plan to spend $1.1 trillion USD on rearmament by 2036 indicates a long-term, significant commitment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Hydropower (Occupied Territories): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. Военкор Котенок reports "Naftogaz" states that an important gas production facility was attacked last night with "dozens of drones." The opening of a new hydropower station in Chechnya reinforces RF's focus on energy infrastructure development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Exercise (NEW): TASS publishes video of the Russian Navy conducting "July Storm" operational exercises, involving over 150 ships, 120 aircraft, 10 coastal missile systems, and 15,000 military personnel. MoD Russia publishes video confirming the "Iyulsky Shtorm" operational drills by the Russian Navy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Wagner Mercenary Arrests (NEW): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that former Wagner mercenaries have been arrested in Azerbaijan for war crimes in Ukraine. This indicates international legal action against RF proxy forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volodin Visit to DPRK: TASS reports Volodin will visit DPRK soon. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) This could imply potential for military-technical cooperation. NEW: TASS reports Volodin plans to hold high-level meetings in DPRK. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:

  • Persistent Deep Strike Capacity: RF maintains a high capability for widespread, multi-vector aerial assault using strategic bombers (Tu-95MS), hypersonic missiles (Kinzhal from MiG-31K), and massed Shahed drones. This allows for simultaneous targeting across Northern, Eastern, Central, and Western Ukraine. The confirmed use of X-101 with cluster munition warheads indicates an escalation in lethality. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Adaptive Precision Targeting: RF continues to adapt its targeting, evidenced by confirmed strikes on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv, and the use of KABs against Sumy, Dobropillia, and Kramatorsk. RF is also targeting Ukrainian internal security infrastructure (police departments) in Kharkiv. This suggests an intent to disrupt UAF domestic defense production and target urban areas for psychological effect. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Enhanced Tactical Drone Integration: RF demonstrates increasingly sophisticated tactical drone capabilities, including FPV drones for precision strikes against artillery (e.g., D-20 howitzer in Kherson, Akatsiya howitzer in Kharkiv), armored vehicles, and personnel. The focus on Rostov Oblast for UAV development indicates a strategic intent to massively scale domestic drone production. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Limited Ground Maneuver and Infiltration: RF maintains capabilities for localized ground advances and deep infiltration by special groups, particularly observed in the Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts (e.g., Varachino, Novotoretske, Komar, Nikolaevka, areas around Pokrovsk and Krasnoarmeysk, Kupyansk). These are often supported by heavy fire, including TOS-1A and Msta-S. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Robust EW/C-UAS Systems (Developing): Reported downing of UAF "Baba Yaga" drones and the showcasing of new Rostec anti-drone systems indicate RF's continued investment and development in counter-UAS capabilities. Appeals from milbloggers for Starlink indicate some vulnerabilities in their own tactical communications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare Dominance: RF possesses a highly adaptive and pervasive information warfare apparatus capable of rapidly disseminating narratives, exploiting internal Ukrainian issues (e.g., NABU/SAP controversy, mobilization tensions), leveraging foreign political discourse, and controlling its domestic information space. Putin signing a law to recognize an extremist community based on one member's activity indicates a tightening of control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Long-term Military Investment: Russia's projected $1.1 trillion USD rearmament plan by 2036 signifies a determined long-term commitment to military modernization and expansion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Special Operations Training: RF is conducting training for special operations forces focusing on sabotage actions in rear areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• Intentions:

  • Sustain Pressure and Exploit Gains: RF intends to maintain constant multi-domain pressure across the FLOT, particularly on the Donetsk axis (Avdiivka, Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar) and potentially expanding in Kharkiv and Sumy, while consolidating recently captured territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Degrade UAF Capabilities: RF seeks to systematically degrade UAF's air defense, logistics, C2, and domestic production capabilities through deep strikes and tactical engagements. Targeting police departments in Kharkiv indicates an intent to disrupt Ukrainian internal security and governance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Undermine Ukrainian Resilience and International Support: RF's deep strikes on civilian infrastructure and its aggressive information operations aim to terrorize the Ukrainian population, lower morale, and sow discord within Ukraine while eroding international confidence and support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Secure Border Areas: Continued RF border operations (e.g., Anvar unit in Sumy/Chernihiv) indicate an intention to maintain reconnaissance and limited kinetic control over border regions, potentially as a prelude to larger cross-border operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Project Diplomatic Engagement (Conditional): RF is participating in negotiations but likely intends to use them as a platform for information operations and to gauge Ukrainian and international resolve, with high-level meetings conditional on preliminary agreements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Expand Influence: Damascus officially appealing for Turkish assistance in "strengthening defense and fighting terrorists" may be an RF-orchestrated or exploited event to highlight a need for regional stability that RF can project itself as providing, or to isolate the US/West. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) RF enabling Belarusian citizens in Russia to vote in local elections is another indicator of attempts to expand political influence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Russia appears to be exploiting or fabricating a narrative about the Zangezur Corridor being transferred to US control, likely to inflame regional tensions and portray Western expansionism. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

• Courses of Action (COAs):

  • COA 1 (Most Likely): RF will continue to concentrate offensive efforts along the Donetsk axis, particularly around Avdiivka and Pokrovsk, leveraging glide bombs and tactical drone support to achieve localized breakthroughs and consolidate territorial gains. This will be supported by continued deep strikes across Ukraine to disrupt logistics and AD, with a potential focus on internal security targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • COA 2 (Likely): RF will intensify cross-border and air-launched attacks against Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts, increasing reconnaissance, artillery fire, and KAB/drone strikes, including targeting internal security infrastructure. This could be a shaping operation for a future ground offensive or a feint to fix UAF resources. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • COA 3 (Less Likely, but possible): RF could launch a limited ground offensive in Sumy or Kharkiv Oblasts from border areas, aiming to draw UAF reserves away from the main Donetsk axis and/or establish a buffer zone. (CONFIDENCE: LOW-MEDIUM)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• FAB-500 Integration: The confirmed massed use of FAB-500 glide bombs at Avdiivka, coupled with T-90M tanks and platoon-sized infantry assaults, demonstrates a more sophisticated combined arms approach than previously observed, indicating adaptation to overcome fortified UAF positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Targeting Ukrainian Defense Production: RF's claimed direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility signifies an adaptation to target the burgeoning UAF domestic drone industry. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Increased Use of Fiber-Optic FPV Drones: Reports of RF using fiber-optic FPV drones (e.g., against a Ukrainian boat in Kherson) indicate an adaptation to counter UAF EW efforts by maintaining a wired link to the drone, reducing susceptibility to jamming. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Focus on Regional UAV Development: The stated plan for Rostov Oblast to become a leader in UAV development is a strategic adaptation aimed at rapidly expanding and localizing RF drone production capacity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Counter-Drone Tactics: The documented engagement of a Russian FPV drone by Ukrainian forces using a buggy demonstrates UAF's tactical adaptation to counter incoming RF drone threats, indicating a dynamic and evolving counter-drone battle space. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Targeting of Internal Security Infrastructure: The claimed strike on Kharkiv's police department indicates a tactical adaptation to broaden targets beyond military and critical energy infrastructure, potentially aiming to disrupt Ukrainian domestic stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Integration of Combat footage into Propaganda: RF is increasingly using raw combat footage from drones and bodycams, often showing captured or injured UAF personnel, directly into their propaganda efforts to demoralize and project dominance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Logistical Hub Disruption (Rovenky): The confirmed successful UAF long-range strike on the Rovenky logistics hub will significantly disrupt RF ammunition and fuel supply lines to the southern front. This is a major blow to RF sustainment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Alternate Route Establishment: RF will likely prioritize establishing alternate supply routes and dispersing remaining logistical assets to mitigate the impact of the Rovenky strike. However, this will incur delays and reduce throughput, particularly for forward units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Reliance on Volunteer Support: Continued appeals for public fundraising and military aid for RF units, including basic necessities like footwear and camouflage, suggest ongoing gaps in official military supply chains or insufficient provision for certain units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Transport Issues: Delays at Russian airports due to UAF drone attacks and railway disruptions in Rostov Oblast highlight vulnerabilities in RF's domestic transport infrastructure impacting both military and civilian logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Potential Internal Corruption: Reports regarding "Russian Post" potentially diverting pension funds suggest internal corruption issues that could, if widespread, impact RF's social and financial stability, indirectly affecting sustainment. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• Centralized Deep Strike Coordination: The widespread and coordinated RF missile and UAV attacks across Ukraine indicate effective high-level C2 for deep operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Tactical Flexibility (Drones): The rapid and diverse deployment of tactical drones (FPV, reconnaissance, loitering munitions) suggests a degree of tactical C2 decentralization or highly effective coordination within smaller units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Information Operations Integration: The rapid and consistent dissemination of RF narratives across state media and milblogger channels, often tied to kinetic events, demonstrates effective integration of C2 for information warfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Governance: High-profile arrests and judicial actions against corruption and perceived disloyalty within RF governance and military structures (e.g., former Deputy Minister of Defense, Vice-Governor of Bryansk Oblast, Chelyabinsk officials, Minister of Transport and Road Management) indicate the Kremlin's effective, albeit authoritarian, control over internal affairs and military discipline. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Response to Internal Threats: FSB's reported thwarting of terrorist attacks and detention of SBU agents demonstrate effective counter-intelligence and internal security C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Labor Unrest Impact (Turkey): The reported worker protests at the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, a major RF-supported project, while not directly military, may signal a potential vulnerability for RF's C2 over its international economic projects and influence. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)

2.5. Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements

• GR-1 (BDA Rovenky): Immediate requirement for detailed BDA of the Rovenky strike. Prioritize satellite imagery, SIGINT analysis for RF communication disruptions, and HUMINT from local sources to quantify destroyed materiel and estimate logistical recovery timelines.
• GR-2 (Northern Intentions): Increased ISR (especially UAV and ground patrols) along Kharkiv and Sumy border to confirm the scale and intent of RF force buildup and reconnaissance, particularly concerning the targeting of internal security infrastructure. Focus on identifying potential staging areas, concentration of forces, and GLOCs.
• GR-3 (Avdiivka Reserves): Identify the location and composition of RF second-echelon forces available to exploit the Avdiivka breakthrough. Utilize enhanced imagery (EO/IR) and SIGINT to track unit movements and communications.
• GR-4 (RF Anti-Drone Systems): Collect more specific technical details on new RF anti-drone systems (e.g., Rostec system) to assess their effectiveness and develop countermeasures. Prioritize technical intelligence and captured equipment analysis.
• GR-5 (North Korean MLRS): Corroborate claims of North Korean 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" use and assess their impact on RF artillery capabilities. Identify areas of deployment and logistical support for these systems.
• GR-6 (Moldovan Disinformation Campaigns): Monitor RF information operations targeting Moldova, specifically the "Moldovan lawlessness" narrative, to assess its impact on regional stability and potential for escalation of hybrid activities. NEW: GR-6.1 (Zangezur Corridor Narrative): Monitor and verify RF information operations regarding the Zangezur Corridor and alleged US control, assessing their impact on regional geopolitics and potential for escalation of hybrid activities in the South Caucasus.
• GR-7 (Tactical Maps): Assess validity and currency of tactical maps posted by RF milbloggers (e.g., Z committee + SVO map, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) to determine extent of RF ground gains and areas of focus.
• GR-8 (Internal RF Dissension): Monitor for any indicators of growing internal dissent or significant public pushback against state policies or the war, beyond what is amplified by RF information operations. This includes internal reports from Moscow on social issues and criminal activity.
• NEW: GR-9 (Akkuyu Labor Unrest): Monitor the ongoing labor unrest at the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant in Turkey, assessing its potential impact on RF's foreign economic projects, political influence in Turkey, and the broader regional stability.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Resilient Air Defense: UAF AD remains highly engaged and effective against persistent, high-volume RF aerial assaults. The reported destruction of over 20 missiles and 344 of 623 aerial targets (drones) overall by UAF AD and EW systems indicates significant capacity and skill. German and Dutch Patriot contributions, along with Czech assistance for drone combat, are critical reinforcements, though the timeline for new Patriot systems remains a concern. UAF AD is also actively targeting RF C2 and personnel with drone-borne munitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Active Defense and Tactical Flexibility: UAF continues to demonstrate active defense across multiple axes, repelling numerous RF assaults daily (e.g., 23 assaults at Kursk/North Slobozhansky, 22 assaults yesterday). Units like the 30th and 60th Separate Mechanized Brigades and the 210th Separate Assault Regiment are effectively using FPV drones to create "kill zones," destroy RF equipment, and eliminate dugouts. The 5th Separate Assault Kyiv Brigade's use of ground robots for medical evacuation highlights innovative tactical adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Persistent Deep Strike Capability: The successful ATACMS strike on the Rovenky logistics hub demonstrates UAF's continued capability to conduct high-precision, long-range strikes against high-value RF logistical targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Robust Domestic Drone Production (Developing): Ukraine is actively pursuing increased domestic production of weapons and drones, with contracts signed for drone interceptors totaling over 3 billion UAH, and plans for French companies to start drone production in Ukraine. This indicates a strategic push for self-sufficiency in key areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Continuous Training and Morale Efforts: UAF units (e.g., 61st OMBr, 46th Airmobile, 116th Mechanized, 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade) are engaged in rigorous training and morale-boosting activities, including appeals to RF soldiers to surrender. POW support efforts are ongoing, with meetings with families of soldiers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Security Challenges (NABU/SAP): The ongoing controversy surrounding the NABU/SAP legislation and internal security incidents (e.g., shooting in Kyiv, National Police Commander's death, TCC conflicts) pose a risk to internal stability and international perceptions of anti-corruption efforts. The OECD warning highlights potential negative impacts on defense and reconstruction funding. The Prosecutor General's statement regarding NABU/SAP jurisdiction suggests an ongoing internal debate. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Personnel Mobilization: The integration of approximately 9500 convicts into the AFU indicates a continued need for personnel, although reports of poor treatment suggest potential morale and disciplinary challenges within these units. RF information operations highlighting Polish deportation of Ukrainian refugees further complicate the personnel picture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Northern Command Reassignment: The transfer of Northern Ukraine defense leadership to Operational Command "West" (Brig. Gen. Volodymyr Shvedyuk) indicates an internal restructuring to optimize command effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Diplomatic Engagement: Ukraine is actively participating in negotiations with Russia in Turkey, indicating a commitment to diplomatic resolution while also engaging high-level foreign officials. The meeting with Erdogan underscores this commitment. Ukraine will insist on an immediate and complete ceasefire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Civilian Support Initiatives: The dispatch of school buses in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast highlights ongoing efforts to support civilian life and communities amidst conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:

  • Rovenky Logistics Hub Strike: Destruction of a major RF ammunition and logistics hub in Rovenky significantly impacts RF sustainment on the southern front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • High AD Interception Rates: UAF AD continues to demonstrate high effectiveness against RF missile and UAV barrages, mitigating civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Effective Tactical Drone Operations: UAF drone units are consistently proving effective in reconnaissance, targeting, and direct engagement of RF personnel and equipment, including armored vehicles and command posts, and well-hidden dugouts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Repelled RF Assaults: UAF forces successfully repelled numerous RF ground assaults across multiple directions (Kursk, North Slobozhansky, Kherson, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Gulyaypole, including a recent one against RF assault attempts in an unspecified direction). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Robot Medevac: Successful deployment of ground robots for casualty evacuation demonstrates advanced battlefield support and reduces risk to personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Successful GUR MO Special Operations: The "Shamanbat" special unit's close-quarters destruction of an enemy assault group confirms UAF special forces' capability for direct action and neutralization of RF tactical elements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Effective Artillery Engagement: The 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade's documented use of BM-21 'Grad' MLRS in Kharkiv Oblast against Russian forces demonstrates continued effective use of conventional artillery to inflict losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Counter-Drone Tactical Adaptation: Ukrainian military personnel successfully engaged and damaged a Russian FPV drone while operating from a buggy. This demonstrates innovative and agile counter-drone tactics on the battlefield. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Night drone hunts: Ukrainian 15th Brigade NGU "Kara-Dag" effectively conducted night drone hunts, indicating advanced night operations capability against RF targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• Setbacks:

  • Avdiivka Breakthrough: RF forces achieved a tactical breakthrough northwest of Avdiivka, threatening encirclement and putting UAF units under extreme pressure. This is a critical development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Civilian Casualties and Infrastructure Damage: Continued RF strikes, particularly with Shaheds and KABs, result in significant civilian casualties and damage to critical and non-critical infrastructure across Ukraine, impacting morale and necessitating extensive recovery efforts (e.g., Kryvyi Rih, Odesa, Sumy). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Territorial Losses: DeepState reports RF advances near Hrushevske, Voskresenka, Orikhove, Mayak, Zatyhka, Oleksandrovgrad, Komar, Dyliiivka, Karlivka, Leonidiivka, and Torske in Donetsk Oblast, and the claimed liberation of Varachino in Sumy Oblast, indicating ongoing tactical territorial losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NABU/SAP Legislation: The enactment of the law limiting the independence of anti-corruption bodies (NABU/SAP) could negatively impact international trust and future financial aid. International partners (Germany, France, OECD) have expressed concern. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mirage 2000 Crash: The crash of a Mirage 2000 in Volyn Oblast, even due to technical malfunction, represents a loss of critical air asset. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Delayed Patriot Delivery: Reports indicate new Patriot systems from Trump's announcement will not arrive until spring 2026, creating a critical gap in high-end air defense capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Critical Air Defense Need: Continued and expedited delivery of advanced AD systems (e.g., Patriot) and interceptors remains critical to counter RF's persistent multi-vector aerial assaults. While funding is reportedly available, physical systems are a constraint, with new systems not expected until 2026. Czech assistance is a positive development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ammunition and Armored Vehicle Shortages: Syrskyi's reported statement on acute shortages of shells and armored vehicles highlights a significant constraint affecting offensive and defensive operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• EW Systems for Frontline: The appeal from the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade for EW systems underscores a need for enhanced battlefield electronic protection against RF drones and surveillance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Drone Procurement & Domestic Production Support: Continuous funding and support for drone procurement and domestic production efforts (e.g., drone interceptors) are essential to maintain and expand UAF's tactical advantage in the UAV domain. Urgent appeals for drones continue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Winter Energy Security: "Naftogaz" securing a loan for winter gas purchases indicates proactive efforts to ensure energy security, but also highlights ongoing financial strain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Economic Vulnerability: The OECD warning about negative impacts on defense and reconstruction funding due to internal anti-corruption issues highlights a potential constraint on long-term resource availability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Objectives:

  • Undermine Ukrainian Government/Institutions: RF propaganda actively exploits and amplifies internal Ukrainian issues, such as the NABU/SAP controversy and TCC-related conflicts, to portray the Ukrainian government as corrupt and dysfunctional. Claims of "lawlessness" in Ukraine and the "Ghost of Maidan" narrative aim to delegitimize the government and democratic processes. Recent focus on Moldovan domestic issues ("Moldovan lawlessness") indicates an expanded regional targeting of hybrid operations. RF propaganda is also now attempting to mock Ukrainian linguistic choices (e.g., lowercase "Russia"). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Demoralize UAF and Ukrainian Population: RF milbloggers consistently highlight claimed UAF losses, portray Ukrainian soldiers as incompetent or forced to fight, and use cynical/mocking language. Civilian casualties from RF strikes are either ignored or blamed on UAF AD. Propaganda is used to emphasize the "liberation" of territories and target Ukrainian internal security services. Use of combat footage with tied POWs enhances this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Justify SMO/Aggression: RF narratives continue to frame the conflict as "liberation" and portray Ukraine as aligned with "Nazis," using historical revisionism and selective reporting (e.g., "liberation of Ukraine in 1944"). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Project RF Strength and Resilience: State media and milbloggers consistently highlight claimed RF military successes, new weapon systems, and the ability to withstand Western sanctions. Naval exercises ("July Storm") are heavily publicized to project military might. RF state media is also attempting to normalize the domestic situation by reporting on civilian events like synchronized swimming championships. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Influence Western Politics: RF actively amplifies statements from Western political figures (e.g., Marjorie Taylor Greene, Donald Trump, Kelly M. Kellogg, Mike Johnson) that are critical of Ukraine aid or US foreign policy, aiming to sow discord and reduce international support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Control Domestic Narrative: RF continues strict internal censorship and uses legal mechanisms (e.g., "extremist" labels, "fakes" laws) against journalists and dissenters to ensure a controlled information environment and maintain public support for the war. State media also attempts to normalize daily life through civilian news. RF is actively using the narrative of Azerbaijan threatening Russia with a NATO base. RF is also leveraging internal Turkish issues (Akkuyu NPP protests) to potentially highlight instability in countries seen as having strong Western ties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Political Integration of Occupied/Influenced Areas: Granting Belarusian citizens residing in Russia the right to participate in local elections signals RF's intention to integrate these populations, reinforcing its broader geopolitical influence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Escalation of South Caucasus Tensions: RF is amplifying unverified claims about the Zangezur Corridor being handed to US control, which serves to portray Western expansionism and potentially destabilize the region. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

• Ukrainian Counter-Narratives:

  • Highlight RF War Crimes: The Office of the Prosecutor General actively documents and publicizes investigations into RF war crimes and civilian casualties (e.g., Kherson Oblast). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Showcase UAF Resilience and Innovation: UAF channels emphasize soldier morale, effective tactical operations (e.g., FPV drone successes, ground robot medevac, night drone hunts), and domestic defense production efforts to counter RF demoralization attempts. Ukrainian channels are also using RF military personnel testimonials to highlight negative conditions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Expose RF Internal Issues: Ukrainian sources highlight RF internal corruption (e.g., MoD, Russian Post, Kyiv City State Administration), recruitment challenges (e.g., convict mobilization, toilet recruitment ads), and social problems (e.g., COVID-19, vision loss, urban flooding, fraud schemes) to counter RF narratives of internal stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Maintain International Support: Ukrainian officials and media continue to engage international partners, report on aid packages, and publicize condemnations of RF actions to ensure continued foreign assistance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Commemorative Measures: The establishment of a Day of Remembrance for those tortured or killed in captivity is a counter-narrative to highlight Russian atrocities and bolster internal resolve. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Counter-Propaganda Messaging: Ukrainian channels directly challenge RF propaganda by highlighting its absurdities (e.g., "Russians are only capable of such posters") or by presenting alternative interpretations of events. This includes direct responses to RF claims about linguistic choices. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukrainian Public Sentiment:

  • Resilience amidst Attacks: Despite persistent RF missile and UAV attacks causing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, emergency services remain active and public warnings are observed, indicating continued resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Corruption Concerns: Protests in Kyiv, Dnipro, and Lviv against the NABU/SAP legislation indicate significant public concern and dissatisfaction with government actions perceived as undermining anti-corruption efforts. This could impact public trust and internal unity, and is being amplified by RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Support for Military: Continued crowdfunding efforts for military equipment and public events supporting veterans reflect strong public support for the armed forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Impact of Casualties: Civilian casualties, particularly children, from RF strikes (e.g., Kramatorsk, Kryvyi Rih, Sumy) continue to fuel outrage and determination. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mobilization Tensions: Reports of conflicts between TCC personnel and local residents in Ivano-Frankivsk indicate ongoing public tensions related to mobilization efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Local Governance Initiatives: The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration's initiatives for business development and youth recreational activities, as well as the dispatch of school buses in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, highlight efforts to maintain morale and normalcy amidst conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• Russian Public Sentiment (RF-controlled narrative):

  • Support for SMO (Propaganda-driven): State media and milbloggers portray a largely unified public supporting the "Special Military Operation," fueled by patriotic events, glorification of servicemen, and narratives of defending against external threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Limited Public Dissent: Protests are rare and quickly suppressed, indicating effective state control over public assembly and expression. Detentions for "discrediting" the army and "justifying Nazism" reflect ongoing suppression of dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Concerns over Drone Attacks: While publicly downplayed, repeated UAF drone attacks on Russian territory (e.g., Moscow airports, Rostov GRES) likely cause underlying public concern, impacting daily life and travel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Social and Economic Issues: Reports of corruption (e.g., Russian Post, "pseudo-builders", Chelyabinsk officials, former Deputy MoD, Novgorod Transport Minister), economic challenges (e.g., rising prices), and internal law enforcement issues (e.g., migrant crime, political detentions, large-scale fraud, Moscow pensioner scam) suggest underlying social strains, despite state efforts to project normalcy. The reported spread of a new COVID-19 variant in Moscow could further impact public health and sentiment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Military Recruitment Challenges: The unconventional placement of recruitment billboards and the ongoing need for volunteer aid suggest difficulties in sustained recruitment and material provision, which could impact public perception of military effectiveness and well-being. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Continued Western Military Aid: Germany and Netherlands' commitment to providing Patriot systems and additional funding for AD and F-16 maintenance demonstrates continued Western military support. Canada's allocation for tank maintenance and defense industry financing also reinforces this. Czechia is also providing support for counter-drone AD. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• International Condemnation of RF Actions: Israeli Foreign Minister's condemnation of RF strikes on civilians, coupled with ongoing international legal actions against Wagner mercenaries, reflects sustained international pressure and condemnation of RF's conduct. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Concerns over Ukrainian Anti-Corruption: G7 Ambassadors' alarm and OECD warnings regarding the NABU/SAP scandal highlight international concerns about anti-corruption reforms in Ukraine, potentially impacting future financial and reconstruction aid. German Foreign Ministry statements reinforce this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Negotiation Efforts: The confirmed third round of direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in Istanbul signals continued diplomatic efforts, with Turkey playing a key mediating role. Ukrainian delegation expansion and a meeting with Erdogan indicates seriousness of engagement, though Peskov's comments confirm a leader's meeting remains conditional. A parallel Ukrainian-only meeting in Turkey suggests a multi-track diplomatic approach. High-level Turkish presence (FM, Intel Chief, Gen Staff Chief) indicates strong mediation commitment. Ukraine's insistence on an immediate ceasefire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Shifting US Political Landscape (RF Influence): RF continues to leverage US political figures like Donald Trump and Marjorie Taylor Greene to undermine US support for Ukraine, indicating a clear information operation aimed at influencing foreign policy debates. Mike Johnson's statement on US involvement further amplifies this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• China-Russia Relations: China's representations to the EU regarding anti-Russian sanctions highlight continued Sino-Russian diplomatic alignment and economic cooperation, potentially mitigating the impact of Western sanctions on RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• DPRK-Russia Engagement: Volodin's upcoming visit to DPRK suggests potential for expanded bilateral cooperation, including military-technical, which could impact the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Moldovan Instability (RF Exploitation): RF's active support for "Chance" party leader Aleksey Lungu during protests in Moldova, and propaganda narratives of "Moldovan lawlessness," indicate ongoing hybrid operations aimed at destabilizing states perceived as aligned with Ukraine or the West. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• EU Visa/Entry Changes: New biometric entry/exit systems for EU will tighten control over citizens from countries including Russia, increasing international isolation for RF citizens. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• EU-US Trade Tensions: The EU considering 30% tariffs on US goods signals emerging trade tensions that could impact broader geopolitical alignments and resource allocation for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Syrian-Turkish Relations: Damascus's official appeal for Turkish help in "strengthening defense and fighting terrorists" could be a significant geopolitical development, potentially indicating a shift in regional alliances or a new proxy conflict front. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• NATO Expansion/Focus: Reports of NATO moving into the South Caucasus region would represent a significant geopolitical shift, potentially increasing regional tensions and impacting RF's strategic calculus. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Estonian Counter-Intelligence: The sentencing of an RF citizen in Estonia for FSB-directed espionage indicates successful counter-intelligence operations by NATO-aligned states against RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

1. Sustained Pressure on Donetsk Axis (Avdiivka/Pokrovsk): RF will continue to concentrate main ground efforts, likely reinforced with additional personnel and equipment from reserves, to expand the breakthrough northwest of Avdiivka and attempt encirclement. Heavy use of FABs and FPV drones will persist to soften UAF defenses and target retreating forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2. Increased Deep Strike Campaign with Broader Targeting: RF will continue and potentially intensify multi-vector missile and UAV strikes against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure. The targeting priority will likely expand to include internal security infrastructure (e.g., police departments, administrative buildings), energy facilities, defense industry sites, and logistical nodes, leveraging night operations and saturation attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
3. Logistical Adaptation and Resupply: Following the Rovenky strike, RF will rapidly establish alternate logistical routes and disperse remaining ammunition and fuel stockpiles. Initial operational tempo on the southern front may experience minor, temporary reductions as new supply chains are established. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
4. Information Operations Amplification: RF will amplify narratives of Ukrainian corruption and military weakness, using captured POWs and Western political figures, to further undermine Ukrainian morale and international support. They will also reinforce domestic narratives of Russian strength and resilience and continue hybrid operations targeting neighboring states like Moldova and potentially Syria, as well as influencing US foreign policy. They will continue to exploit and amplify internal Ukrainian political and social tensions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
5. Internal Control and Suppression: RF will continue to implement and enforce strict internal control measures, including new legislation on "extremist communities" and ongoing crackdowns on dissent, to maintain a unified domestic front and prevent destabilization. This includes measures against perceived foreign influence or espionage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

1. Rapid Encirclement of Avdiivka: RF commits significant, unobserved reserves to rapidly seal off the Avdiivka salient, leading to a large-scale capture or destruction of UAF units. This would critically degrade UAF defensive posture in Donetsk Oblast and open up new avenues of advance for RF. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
2. Major Offensive in Sumy/Kharkiv: RF launches a combined arms ground offensive from border areas into Sumy or Kharkiv Oblasts, aiming to force UAF to divert substantial forces from the main eastern front, creating a new, highly active front. This would overwhelm UAF's ability to defend all sectors simultaneously. The targeting of police infrastructure in Kharkiv could be a preparatory action for such an offensive. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
3. Targeted Strikes on Key UAF Leadership/C2: RF conducts highly precise deep strikes aimed at assassinating key Ukrainian military or political leaders, or severely disrupting central military C2 nodes. This would be a high-risk, high-reward operation intended to paralyze Ukrainian response. (CONFIDENCE: LOW-MEDIUM)
4. Expanded Hybrid Warfare in South Caucasus: RF leverages the situation in Syria/Armenia/Azerbaijan to initiate or escalate hybrid warfare in the South Caucasus, creating a new geopolitical distraction and potentially opening another front of instability near NATO's borders. This could be exacerbated by information operations fabricating foreign interference in the Zangezur Corridor. (CONFIDENCE: LOW-MEDIUM)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Avdiivka Stabilization: Next 24-48 hours are critical for UAF to stabilize defenses around Avdiivka and prevent encirclement. Decision point for significant redeployments or counter-offensives.
• Rovenky Logistical Impact: Significant impact of Rovenky strike on RF southern operations expected within 48-72 hours. Decision point for UAF to exploit reduced RF logistical support on the southern front.
• Northern Border Escalation: Within the next 72-96 hours, increased RF reconnaissance in Kharkiv/Sumy may escalate to intensified shelling or localized ground probes, indicating potential for broader offensive. Decision point for UAF to reinforce northern defenses based on ISR.
• Anti-Corruption Law Repercussions: The full impact of the NABU/SAP law on international aid and internal stability will likely manifest within the next 7-14 days. Decision point for the Ukrainian government to mitigate international concerns and address public dissatisfaction.
• Istanbul Negotiations Progress: Key decision points for potential de-escalation or further diplomatic engagement will emerge from the ongoing Istanbul negotiations, particularly regarding the possibility of a leader's meeting. Outcome of negotiations expected today, with potential for further meetings.
• Patriot Delivery Gap: The delay of new Patriot systems until spring 2026 creates a critical long-term air defense vulnerability that requires immediate mitigation strategies. Decision point for UAF and allies to identify alternative AD solutions or accelerate existing deliveries.
• Akkuyu NPP Unrest: The situation at Akkuyu NPP requires close monitoring over the next 24-48 hours to determine its scale and potential for broader geopolitical implications for RF.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. PRIORITY 1: Avdiivka Sector:

   • Tactical Focus: Implement an immediate, highly mobile "EW shield" and "SHORAD umbrella" around Avdiivka and its critical GLOCs to neutralize RF glide bombs and ISR/strike drones.
   • Force Deployment: Rapidly deploy pre-identified tactical reserves to the flanks of the RF penetration to conduct aggressive counter-attacks, prevent a full encirclement, and enable controlled withdrawal to secondary defensive lines if necessary.
   • ISR Support: Prioritize all available ISR (UAV, artillery recon) to provide real-time targeting for UAF artillery and accurate tracking of RF advances and reserve movements.

2. PRIORITY 2: Exploit Rovenky Strike:

   • Targeting: Immediately task long-range precision strike assets (e.g., ATACMS, Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG) to target identified secondary RF logistical nodes and choke points along alternate supply routes to the southern front.
   • ISR Reinforcement: Dedicate enhanced satellite and aerial ISR (with IR capabilities) to track RF logistical adjustments (e.g., rail traffic, road convoys, dispersed depots) and identify new high-value targets.

3. PRIORITY 3: Northern Threat Mitigation:

   • Enhanced Surveillance: Increase continuous ISR coverage (ground patrols, M-UAVs, SIGINT) along the Kharkiv and Sumy border to detect any concentration of RF forces or pre-assault preparations beyond current reconnaissance activity, with specific focus on indicators for offensive ground operations, including targeting of police infrastructure.
   • Prepared Defenses: Reinforce existing defensive positions and pre-position reserves in depth along likely avenues of approach in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts, prepared for rapid deployment.

4. Air Defense Reinforcement:

   • Diplomatic Pressure: Engage international partners to accelerate existing AD system deliveries and explore immediate, short-term stop-gap AD solutions to bridge the gap until new Patriot systems arrive in 2026.
   • Domestic Production Acceleration: Prioritize and expedite domestic production of drone interceptors and other short-range air defense solutions.

5. Information Environment Counter-Measures:

   • Strategic Communications: Proactively disseminate clear and transparent information regarding the NABU/SAP legislation, outlining concrete steps to ensure continued anti-corruption efforts and international cooperation to mitigate negative impacts, particularly addressing specific international criticisms. Highlight the Prosecutor General's statements on jurisdiction.
   • Counter-Narrative Development: Develop and disseminate robust counter-narratives to RF propaganda, particularly concerning alleged UAF personnel issues, internal divisions, and the Moldovan situation, leveraging verified facts and positive portrayals of UAF morale and effectiveness. Highlight RF internal issues (e.g., corruption, recruitment difficulties, COVID-19 spread, social issues). Directly address and refute absurd RF propaganda claims (e.g., lowercase "Russia").
   • Cyber Security: Continue monitoring and responding to RF cyber influence operations, particularly those targeting social media and political discourse in Western countries.

6. Diplomatic Leverage:

   • Negotiation Strategy: Maintain a firm stance on immediate and complete ceasefire during Istanbul negotiations, while leveraging Turkish mediation and exploring the possibility of multi-lateral talks involving key international partners (US).
   • Regional Stability: Monitor and address RF information operations designed to inflame tensions in the South Caucasus (e.g., Zangezur Corridor narrative) and potential internal unrest in Turkey.

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//END REPORT//