Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 230700Z JUL 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats lifted, though localized Shahed UAV threats persist for Lviv Oblast, Southern Ukraine, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi districts, also Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, now Synelnykivskyi district), and Kharkiv Oblast. Civilian casualties confirmed (14 fatalities, multiple injured) across Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Chernivtsi, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Sloviansk, Kherson, and Kramatorsk. Rescue and emergency services are actively engaged. Civilian infrastructure damage confirmed in Odesa due to RF UAV attack. Rocket danger for Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kryvyi Rih (UPDATE): Multiple reports of explosions due to mass Shahed UAV attack. Fires confirmed by Mayor, now liquidated, no casualties reported. Council of Defense of the city confirms Shahed attacks in several locations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Northern Ukraine (Kyiv Oblast): Continued Air Defense (AD) engagement against Shahed UAVs over Kyiv. Kinetic impacts on residential and commercial buildings, and a metro entrance. One fatality and nine injuries reported. Firefighters engaged; kindergarten fire confirmed. Over fifteen direct hits on various objects overnight. RF milblogger Colonelcassad claims three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, with video showing multiple explosions and fires, and claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility. New ballistic missile threat declared for Kyiv, now lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports a localized internal security incident involving a shooting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kyiv City: RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU report a crane collapsed on Hlybochytska Street due to strong winds/storm, affecting civilian infrastructure. RBC-Ukraine reports 5 individuals hospitalized due to bad weather. Protest observed regarding legislation limiting NABU/SAP powers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Eastern Ukraine: Initial cruise missile group detected over Kharkiv Oblast, moving towards Poltava Oblast. Kharkiv's Kyivskyi district hit by 12 UAV strikes overnight. RF milblogger "Воин DV" claims bomber strikes on UAF forward positions in Yanvarskyi supporting 36th Army advance. New group of RF UAVs reported from Luhansk Oblast moving towards Kharkiv Oblast. Kharkiv Oblast governor confirms strikes on Kharkiv city and 10 settlements. DeepState reports RF advances in Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, and near three other villages in Donetsk Oblast. MoD Russia video claims liberation of Popov Yar. RF milbloggers claim a new RF front opened in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian military operations confirmed near Belaya Gora, Donetsk, with claims of capturing foreign weapons. Colonelcassad shares map showing continued positional changes on the front line. UAF National Guard "Khartia" brigade drone operators claimed destruction of nearly a platoon of Russian occupiers in Kharkiv Oblast. A tractor driver was blown up by a mine in Balakliia community, Kharkiv Oblast. At least 54 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast affected by enemy strikes over the past week. STERNENKO claims Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment holding back Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast. Liveuamap Source reports recent clashes at Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Gulyaypole, and Kherson directions. Ukrainian forces repelled 23 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. FPV drone strike on Russian UAZ-452 ('Bukhanka') vehicle confirmed. Perovske, Zolochiv community, Kharkiv Oblast, shelled. DeepState reports liquidation of RF sabotage groups in Pokrovsk. RF milbloggers claim RF DRG activity in Pokrovsk, with video suggesting an ambush on a UAF vehicle. Threat of aviation munitions for Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. Clashes confirmed yesterday in Toretsk, Sieversk, Lyman, Novopavlivka, Kramatorsk, Kupyansk, Orikhiv, South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), and Pokrovsk directions. Ukrainian forces repelled 22 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. DeepState analysis indicates RF army occupied Hrushevske and advanced near Voskresenka, Orikhove, Mayak and Zatyhka (formerly Suvorove) in Donetsk Oblast. TASS and MoD Russia claim RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske in DNR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: TASS reports RF forces advanced near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast, dislodging UAF units from several positions. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports renewed activity in Kharkiv direction, with video showing drone-guided strikes on targets, indicating continued RF pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy UAVs in Eastern Kharkiv Oblast continuing movement south. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports the same information, confirming continued southward movement of enemy drones in Eastern Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction and warns of threat of aviation munitions for frontline oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): RBC-Ukraine reports confirmed damage to a market in Kharkiv Oblast due to a drone strike, with photo evidence of the aftermath including flames and emergency services personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Popov Yar, Donetsk Oblast: TASS reports a group of Ukrainian servicemen surrendered in Popov Yar, DNR. This claim, if verified, indicates localized UAF tactical setbacks. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • South-Donetsk Direction: Colonelcassad publishes video claiming successful destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit by 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, "Vostok" Grouping. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast: ASTRA, RBC-Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 report a direct RF KAB strike on a residential building, resulting in the confirmed death of a 10-year-old child and 7 injured. New information reports 12 injured after aviation strikes on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sloviansk, Donetsk Oblast: Олексій Білошицький reports Russian attack on Sloviansk. Paramedics from the "Predator" brigade assisted an 81-year-old woman. This confirms continued RF strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk Oblast: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade drone operators created a "kill zone," destroying multiple enemy vehicles and personnel with FPV drones. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video of 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade using FPV drones to destroy two pieces of RF mechanized equipment during an attempted assault. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes a video showing Ukrainian drone operators (427th Separate Unmanned Systems Regiment "Rarog") using "fireball" bombs to destroy houses and premises used by the enemy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast: RBC-Ukraine provides photo/video on RF drone and KAB attacks, highlighting continued RF kinetic impacts on civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Belgorod Oblast (RF): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video claiming HIMARS strikes on an RF S-300 air defense battery, a "Nebo-M" radar, and a 5H66M "Big Bird" radar. This, if verified, is a significant UAF success. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) TASS reports three injured, including two minors, in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA also reports three injured, including two teenagers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a video of an aerial attack on a convoy of vehicles, likely military trucks, suggesting UAF counter-battery or deep strike effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports a civilian was injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Velyka Novosilka - Shevchenko: "Сливочный каприз" publishes photo messages likely indicating continued engagements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Сливочный каприз" publishes video of a destroyed settlement with a person carrying a Russian flag, captioned "Konstantinovka - Belaya Gora," indicating active combat and likely RF advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnolimanskoye Direction: "Два майора" publishes a video showing RF unit thanking for humanitarian aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar: Colonelcassad provides video footage claiming the destruction of a UAF UAV command post on the outskirts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z publishes aerial reconnaissance footage of a rural area, indicating military activity, explosions, and damaged buildings, focused on Chaiv Yar, suggesting active ground operations by RF airborne units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnoarmeysk direction: MoD Russia video claims destruction of a UAF UAV control post. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports RF forces are forming a wide encirclement of Krasnoarmeysk in DNR after liberating Novotoretske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV reports RF forces active, claiming to disable Starlink communications for 25th Airborne Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publish videos claiming Russian reconnaissance and DRG activity, with video suggesting an ambush on a UAF vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes photo messages claiming active work by RF operators against enemy equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sloviansk/Kramatorsk: Colonelcassad publishes video claiming "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk, with a large plume of dark smoke. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Alexandrovgrad: Воин DV publishes drone footage claiming destruction of armored vehicles and personnel by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 5th Guards Tank Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) DeepState reports RF advanced near Aleksandrovgrad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novotoretske, DNR: TASS, MoD Russia, Операция Z, and Kotsnews all claim RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnoarmeysk Direction: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes video claiming the downing of a heavy "Baba Yaga" drone by AIRNOMADS operators. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Torskoye (UPDATE): Оперативний ЗСУ publishes drone video claiming to show a "military crime" by RF forces targeting a civilian on a bicycle, followed by artillery strikes, with claims of multiple enemy neutralizations. DeepState publishes video alleging RF forces shot a local resident on a bicycle. RF sources now claim Russian assault units have dislodged Ukrainian forces from Torske (DNR) and positions in the Serebryansky forestry. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) DeepState reports RF advanced near Torske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Orlivka, Sumy Oblast: Colonelcassad claims use of "Harpy" drones by RF UAV units to destroy temporary deployment points and vehicles of the UAF 104th Territorial Defense Brigade near Orlivka. Video shows residential buildings impacted by explosions and fires. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Temirovka, Zaporizhzhia Region: MoD Russia claims Uragan MLRS hit AFU positions near Temirovka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pokrovsk (Donetsk Oblast): Рыбарь channel publishes a photo and video indicating "Russian infantry in Pokrovsk." Воин DV publishes video claiming to show drone footage of an AFU armored vehicle being engaged by AIRNOMADS. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны publish video claiming fierce battles, increased pace of advance, and destruction of enemy equipment and personnel. Операция Z reports that "Otvazhnye" (brave ones) stormed a UAF strongpoint. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video claiming RF DRG activity on the road. Colonelcassad publishes drone footage from the "Centre" group showing explosions targeting enemy vehicles (SUV, tank) and positions (BABA-YAGA drone, STARLINK terminal). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast, Izium: Colonelcassad publishes video showing residents of Izium visually monitoring a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike on a Ukrainian "occupation formation" object. Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes video claiming a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike on a target. Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports RF forces struck military warehouses this morning (22 JUL 25). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast, Oskil: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes drone footage showing the Khartia brigade's engagement against enemy personnel and a fuel depot. RF flags visible on targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk Oblast (New KAB Launches): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports repeated KAB launches. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv/Sumy Border (New KAB Launches): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kamyansk (New): Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Defense Forces have withdrawn to the flanks and are holding Kamyansk under fire control. Военкор Котенок posts a map of the Dnipropetrovsk direction, indicating potential RF focus. Военкор Котенок posts a map of the Druzhkivka direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video showing a severely damaged apartment building, likely in Avdiivka, with a person in tactical gear, indicating ongoing conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Konstantinovka Direction: Z комитет + карта СВО publishes a tactical map indicating RF advances and control zones as of 22 JUL 25. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poltavka Direction: Z комитет + карта СВО publishes a tactical map indicating RF advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dzerzhinsk Direction: Военкор Котенок publishes a tactical map indicating activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Belaya Gora, Donetsk Oblast (New Flag): Colonelcassad publishes a video showing an RF serviceman raising a Russian flag, confirming RF presence and likely consolidation of control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Avdiivka Axis (UPDATE): Оперативний ЗСУ reports on drone footage showing UAF 2nd Battalion of the 101st Brigade disrupting RF assault plans. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kursk Oblast (RF): Colonelcassad publishes multiple photo messages showing a destroyed American M1A1SA Abrams tank. This claim, if verified, represents a significant UAF loss. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • RF Deep Strike (NEW): Воин DV publishes thermal/night vision drone footage showing an explosion engulfing a lead vehicle in a convoy on a dirt road. This suggests an RF drone strike against UAF personnel and/or vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Komar (NEW): TASS publishes video claiming RF stormtroopers "liberated" the village of Komar in DNR, entering it via open terrain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) DeepState reports RF advanced near Komar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novoselivka (NEW): Colonelcassad publishes video claiming destruction of UAF 118th Separate Mechanized Brigade equipment in Novoselivka area. The video shows aerial reconnaissance of a road, tracking what appear to be military vehicles, and then shifting to a thermal view showing a vehicle being targeted and destroyed. Another segment shows a "BBM "MAKS-PRO" VSU" (MAX-PRO armored vehicle) hit and exploding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk Oblast (NEW ADVANCES): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (DeepState) reports RF advanced near Voskresenka, Dyliiivka, Karlivka, and Leonidiivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Central Ukraine: Missile group (up to 10) towards Myrhorod district, then passing Poltava towards Kremenсhuk. New missile group from Sumy Oblast also moved towards Poltava Oblast. Another group from Cherkasy Oblast diverted, heading westward into Vinnytsia Oblast. Kryvyi Rih reports "situation controlled." Aftermath of attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast confirmed. TASS claims RF forces used FABs against UAF reserve positions in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovets Oblast. New threat of strike UAVs for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi districts). UAV reported on Poltava Oblast, heading southwest. Threat of enemy strike UAVs in Zolotoniskyi and Cherkaskyi districts of Cherkasy Oblast. One fatality in Vinnytsia from 16 July strike. Explosions in Kropyvnytskyi and Kryvyi Rih amid ballistic missile threat. Kirovohrad Oblast attacked by ballistic missiles. Nikopol district attacked by artillery, MLRS "Grad," and FPV drones. НгП раZVедка reports on aftermath of strike on preparatory camp in Kropyvnytskyi. UAV threat reported in Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, heading northwest. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), with possible AD activity. Missile danger for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi district) and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: TASS claims a UK-trained UAF unit was destroyed. This is an unverified RF claim. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports over two dozen attacks in Nikopol district throughout the day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports an infrastructure object damaged due to a drone hit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district) - threat of enemy strike UAVs! (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes photos regarding a visit from Myroslav Biletskyi, Head of Zakarpattia Oblast Military Administration, indicating inter-regional cooperation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports 8 enemy UAVs were shot down overnight in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ballistic Missile Threat: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports a threat of ballistic missile use from the East. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports ballistic missile threat from Northeast (Now lifted). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports ballistic threat from East. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports high-speed target from Kursk Oblast heading southwest in Sumy Oblast. Ballistic missile threat lifted for all areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poltava Oblast: The Office of the Prosecutor General reports a domestic law enforcement event regarding counterfeit perfumes/cosmetics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Enemy UAVs from Sumy Oblast are entering northeastern Poltava Oblast, heading southwest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) claims a powerful strike on a UAF training ground. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Western Ukraine: Cruise missiles confirmed from Vinnytsia Oblast to Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Main group entered Ternopil Oblast, Chernivtsi Oblast (AD engaging, 4 fatalities confirmed), and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast (explosions, damage, casualties). Kinzhal hypersonic missile launched from MiG-31K tracked towards Starokostiantyniv, then Ternopil/Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts, with confirmed explosions and casualties. Mayor of Ivano-Frankivsk confirmed infrastructure damage. Three Shahed UAVs approaching Ivano-Frankivsk reported intercepted. Damage to kindergarten and university in Lviv. Damaged residential buildings (20 private houses) in Kamianets-Podilskyi district, Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Odesa Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a Shahed UAV recovered from the shore. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports severe flooding due to heavy rain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volyn Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports a localized internal security incident involving a shooting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports a French Mirage 2000 fighter jet crashed due to technical malfunction; pilot ejected successfully with stable condition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns reports an F-16 was shot down in Rivne Oblast; pilot ejected. This is a conflicting claim with the Mirage crash. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - contradictory) UAF Air Force confirms Mirage 2000 crash due to technical malfunction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes video claiming a Ukrainian Mirage 2000 fighter jet crashed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zelenskiy / Official has confirmed the downed Mirage and stated the pilot ejected safely, adding that it was not caused by Russian action. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Romania (NEW): RBC-Ukraine reports Romania is forming a voluntary contract army. This indicates a proactive measure by a NATO member on Ukraine's border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Southern Ukraine: New Shahed UAVs detected in Black Sea, heading towards Pivdenne/Koblevo (8 inbound). RF strike on Vasylivskyi district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulted in 2 fatalities, 1 wounded. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reports 14 UAVs shot down (previously 7). Missile threat active for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF 44th Artillery Brigade successfully targeted an RF 2A65 Msta-B. Colonelcassad claims missile strike on Ukrainian gas platform in Black Sea. TASS reports parts of a downed UAF UAV fell on a kindergarten and Ministry of Emergency Situations in Berdyansk. Launches of KABs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast confirmed. UAV threat for Kherson, Zaporizhzhia (Nikopolskyi district), and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts from the south. 4 new Shahed UAVs from Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Pavlohrad. New groups of Shahed UAVs from Black Sea heading towards Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts. Odesa Oblast AD engaged 10 Shahed UAVs over Black Sea; 12 Shahed UAVs confirmed approaching Odesa from the sea. Explosions heard in Odesa. CONFIRMED CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE IN ODESA DUE TO RF UAV ATTACK, with photo evidence of destroyed vehicles, debris, and extensive damage. RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU further confirm extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Odesa. One fatality in Odesa due to the attack (confirmed by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS), and one injured (STERNENKO). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Enemy UAVs from western Kherson Oblast are heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports 7 UAVs flying towards/through Shyroke/Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports another 7 UAVs in Beryslav district, heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAVs from the west inbound to Kryvyi Rih; take shelter. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Олександр Вілкул reports explosions in Kryvyi Rih due to mass Shahed attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Суспільне reports explosions in Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports the 7 UAVs heading to Kryvyi Rih were neutralized. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) One RF Shahed UAV reported near Posad-Pokrovske (Kherson Oblast), heading north. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson Oblast: Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 4 Russian army assaults. TASS reports on Russian Group "Dnepr" UAV calculation with FPV drones destroying a Ukrainian D-20 howitzer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок claims destruction of a Ukrainian boat with personnel using a fiber-optic FPV drone. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes video showing a Grad MLRS crew eliminating enemy targets on the right bank of Dnepr river. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes video claiming destruction of a UAV command post for the 34th Separate Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Antonivka, Kherson Oblast, using a LMUR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mariupol: TASS reports that the Mariupol port is operating with sufficient staff for current workload. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vasylivskyi District, Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has posted photo messages showing a wounded man from an "enemy attack." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson: ASTRA reports one woman injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Southern Direction: Сили оборони Півдня України reports continued RF aviation strikes, FPV drone use, and Shahed UAV attacks on frontline settlements and UAF positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Ballistic missile threat alert issued. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues immediate alert. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports air raid alert lifted. Военкор Котенок publishes a tactical map for the Zaporizhzhia direction (right flank). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes video showing RF drone operators and artillery of the 35th Army targeting satellite communication equipment, personnel, and strongpoints in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, confirming continued kinetic action and specific targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: Air Force reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV detected. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAV on Mykolaiv Oblast, course north. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Shkolny Airfield, Odesa Oblast: Военкор Котенок claims Ukrainian AD targeted high-rise buildings and local parking during "Geranium" attack, an RF attempt to shift blame. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Nova Kakhovka: WarGonzo reports two fatalities from a drone strike on a minibus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Gas Facilities (Black Sea): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок reports "Naftogaz" states that an important gas production facility was attacked last night with "dozens of drones." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson Direction: Два майора publishes video indicating drone operations, signal loss/interference and possible impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vessel Destruction: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes video showing a burning naval vessel, likely after an engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Temporary flight restrictions at Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky airports have been lifted. Restrictions also lifted at Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, and Kaluga airports. RF milbloggers gloat about Kyiv impacts. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claims 18 UAVs shot down over Moscow; RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight (previously 23 over Moscow, and a total of 74 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight). Falling UAV debris on railway station in Rostov Oblast delayed over 50 passenger trains. Fire at Kamianolomni railway station, Rostov Oblast confirmed. Belgorod governor reports 2 civilian injuries from UAF UAV attack. Flooding reported in Moscow streets. Fires reported in Rostov and Moscow oblasts after UAV hits. TASS reports a Moldovan national detained in Ryazan confessed to transmitting data on RF Armed Forces to Kyiv. TASS reports a man detained in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD facilities. TASS reports RF MoD claims 14 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kaluga, Bryansk, Tula, and Oryol Oblasts. Crimean Bridge queue reached 2000 vehicles. TASS reports foreigners can enter RF without RuID registration. TASS reports the new Moskvich-8 car is on sale for 2.98 million rubles. TASS reports the Sheremetyevo airport is organizing recreation zones for passengers. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. ASTRA reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Gennady Starunov, a Russian "Teacher of the Year 2022," lecturer from Moscow school #1164, and author of Telegram channel "Frontline Notes," was liquidated in Ukraine. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Temporary flight restrictions are introduced in Kaluga airport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Restrictions on receiving and sending aircraft introduced at Nizhny Novgorod airport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Nizhny Novgorod governor reports enemy UAVs again targeted industrial facilities; attack was repelled, no casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov-on-Don: TASS reports a UAV attack was repelled in Rostov-on-Don, Millerovo, Donetsk (Rostov Oblast), and Azov district, with no casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ and ASTRA report UAV attacks on Novocherkassk railway station and Novocherkassk GRES (thermal power plant). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) НгП раZVедка reports on UAV attack on Novocherkassk GRES. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the building of "Rosstelecom" was also damaged in Novocherkassk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA confirms a railway crossing closure and traffic jam in Novocherkassk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes a video showing a UAV attack on a railway junction in Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports three people injured in Novocherkassk due to UAV attack. ASTRA corroborates with video showing damaged residential building. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): STERNENKO publishes multiple videos and photo messages of UAV attacks on railway infrastructure, a GRES, and a Rostelecom building in Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast, confirming significant damage and civilian observations of explosions and fires. This indicates a high-impact, coordinated UAF deep strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tula Oblast: TASS reports RF air defense destroyed three Ukrainian UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): TASS reports 12 UAVs were destroyed overnight over Tula Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov Oblast UAV Development: TASS reports plans to make Rostov Oblast a leader in UAV development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novosibirsk: TASS reports the detention of a young man for hacking information resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Samara Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports a drone attack on Samara Oblast, RF. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) ASTRA provides video confirming the Novosuybyshevsk oil refinery fire after a UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Bryansk Oblast: Брянская область. Губернатор reports "nine more" Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed overnight. TASS reports that searches are being conducted at the home of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, now confirmed detained on charges of abuse of power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) AV БогомаZ reports that 28 Ukrainian UAVs were detected and destroyed. This is a significant increase in claimed UAV interceptions for this region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): AV БогомаZ reports 2 enemy UAVs were destroyed overnight over Bryansk Oblast, reducing the previous high claim but confirming continued UAF drone activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow: TASS reports the death of Irina Podnosova, the Chairman of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation. TASS reports Putin expressed condolences. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы posts a video showing water puddles and cleaning operations inside a public building. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ТАСС publishes videos showing flooded metro tracks at "Bagrationovskaya" and "Kuntsevskaya" stations. Another video shows a flooded train station/underpass. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes multiple videos showing severe urban flooding. ASTRA publishes videos showing severe urban flooding. Moscow is planning to build a new highway. Новости Москвы reports that from tomorrow, electric car charging will no longer be free. Военкор Котенок reports discussing the important topic of enemy UAV strikes on Moscow. STERNENKO provides a list of RF regions with "drone danger" (Smolensk, Kaluga, Lipetsk, Moscow, Penza, Oryol, Tambov, Rostov Oblasts, and Republic of Mordovia). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kabardino-Balkaria: ASTRA and Operatyvnyi ZSU report an emergency situation declared due to a mudslide and damaged bridge. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow Development: Новости Москвы reports plans for over 800 sports and 1500 children's playgrounds to be built this year. Новости Москвы also reports that scientists have proven a four-day work week without salary reduction improves employee well-being. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы posts a video showing heavy rain and flooded streets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Crimea: TASS reports three individuals were detained for desecrating a monument. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tyumen: "Операция Z" reports the detention of a migrant for threatening a teenager. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Law Enforcement: TASS reports billionaire Matsotsky appealed his in absentia arrest in a bribery case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the chief editor of the Ryazan online publication "Svoy Kolokolny" (Svoy kolokolnya) Komarov was detained in an extortion case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports a local resident was detained in Veliky Novgorod for planning to join the "Russian Volunteer Corps", a Ukrainian organization banned in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • FSB Activity: FSB reports it thwarted activities of three suspects aiding Ukrainian special services. Colonelcassad confirms three accomplices detained for preparing terrorist attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow: ASTRA reports security forces detained Dmitry Kisiev, head of the headquarters of former presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports that journalist Yuri Dud, classified as a "foreign agent" in Russia, has been заочно (in absentia) arrested for two months. TASS confirms this arrest and states he is on an international wanted list. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports blogger Dud is заочно accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports Yuri Dud is заочно accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF MoD Corruption: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports new criminal cases against former Deputy Minister of Defense Pavel Popov for multi-million ruble bribes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novorossiysk: TASS reports over 20 apartments damaged by a domestic gas explosion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • St. Petersburg: ASTRA and Север.Реалии report two foreign nationals detained near FSB building for dancing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Foreign Vessel Access: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Putin has toughened rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poland General's Death: TASS, Colonelcassad, and Alex Parker Returns report the death of Polish General Waldemar Skrzypczak. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a photo message reporting the death of former Polish Land Forces commander Waldemar Skrzypczak, highlighting his calls to attack Belarus and Kaliningrad Oblast. This is a clear RF information operation aiming to vilify a deceased foreign military figure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF MFA Statements: TASS reports RF MFA states RF significantly expanded list of EU representatives and EU institutions banned from entering Russia. TASS also reports "Western countries continue to use Ukraine as a tool to wage war against Russia." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Russia regrets the US withdrawal from UNESCO, anticipating political and financial consequences. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Media Raids: TASS, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, and Север.Реалии report police and OMON conducted searches at "Baza" publication's editorial office and the editor-in-chief's apartment. TASS also provides video showing the situation at the Baza office. Операция Z reports a criminal case for exceeding authority has been opened against police officers in Moscow who leaked information. TASS reports investigators detained not only the editor-in-chief of Baza, Trifonova, but also several other employees for questioning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes video claiming police officers who leaked information to Baza have been detained, along with five Baza employees including the editor-in-chief. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the chief editor of Telegram channel Baza, Gleb Trifonov, and his colleague were detained in Moscow for bribery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that a second suspect, producer Tatyana Lukyanova, has been identified in the case of the Baza editor-in-chief. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • IT Military Deferral: TASS reports that the acceptance of applications for IT deferrals from military service has begun. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pensioner Treason Case: ASTRA reports a pensioner from Izhevsk sentenced to 15 years for treason but released due to health. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Supreme Court Memorial: TASS reports a memorial service for Irina Podnosova was held. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Yuri Kara Funeral: TASS reports and provides video of the funeral of film director Yuri Kara in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Transbaikal Region: ASTRA reports a teenager claiming torture after detention for forest arson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow Drone Facility Attack: РБК-Україна reports a car belonging to the head of a company manufacturing drones for occupiers was burned. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Roskomnadzor: TASS reports Roskomnadzor blocked 56,000 resources with extremist materials. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Law on Extremist Materials: TASS reports State Duma adopted law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns reinforces this, stating the Duma approved fines up to 5,000 rubles for searching/viewing extremist materials via VPN, and up to 500,000 rubles for advertising VPN services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the State Duma has adopted amendments related to requirements for owners of audiovisual services and social networks regarding blocking films. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo message stating the State Duma has approved a law to block communications for subscribers with frozen bank accounts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that the adopted law on terminating advance payments for mobile operators does not contain norms for blocking communications. This contradicts previous reports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Families of SVO Fighters: TASS reports State Duma allowed widows of SVO fighters to use their cars until inheritance is issued. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Second Child Credit Holidays: Басурин о главном reports Russian families with a second child will receive 1.5 years of credit holidays. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • St. Petersburg (Internal Security): TASS reports security forces conducting operations at the Mikhailovsky Theater. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF State Duma: TASS reports the State Duma has approved the transfer of data regarding migrant children enrollment in schools to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports State Duma Deputy Mikhail Tarasenko (United Russia) has died from illness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the Duma adopted an amendment fining citizens for disclosing state secrets in media. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes video showing a formal session discussing "labor migrants." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the State Duma has adopted several laws aimed at preventing embezzlement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the Duma restricted the sale of electronic railway tickets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы publishes a photo message stating a draft law for year-round military conscription has been submitted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA publishes a video showing a man (later identified as a State Duma Deputy) discussing the implementation of year-round conscription. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that a State Duma Deputy stated the Duma is discussing support measures for passengers with children in case of flight delays. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Messengers: TASS reports that blocking foreign messengers in Russia is not planned. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Internal Affairs: Операция Z shares an image with text about "traitors-Nazis from Russia" being handed over to Moscow by Kyiv. Операция Z reports that Ukrainian MP Skorokhod admitted that TCC "beat mobilized people to death" across Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Armenian Insiders: "Два майора" reports "Armenian insiders" claim security forces will soon work with businessmen close to Pashinyan who conduct business in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kaliningrad "Conqueror" Dies: Старше Эдды reports the death of the "conqueror" of Kaliningrad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow Airport: WarGonzo questions what is happening at Moscow airport during a "carpet plan" (drone attack). TASS reports 517 flights were canceled at Moscow and St. Petersburg airports between July 19-22, affecting 75,000 passengers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a serviceman could not see his family due to air collapse. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes multiple videos showing a crowded airport terminal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Trump Administration & PRO: TASS reports the Trump administration is looking for an alternative to Musk's SpaceX for creating a "Golden Dome" missile defense system. РБК-Україна publishes a photo message implying Trump is seeking alternatives to SpaceX. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Трамп не виключає можливість зустрічі з путіном під час ймовірного візиту до Китаю. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes a video of Donald Trump. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports that the US State Department clarified Trump's ultimatum for Russia in his "50 days" plan, stating it won't strictly adhere to deadlines but will judge by progress in negotiations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports Trump stated that Kyiv likely did not spend all the money allocated by the US for arms purchases. This is a new RF information operation to question US aid to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donbas Drought: Mash на Донбассе provides photo messages of the dried-up Khanzhenkovo reservoir. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volunteer Aid (RF forces): Colonelcassad publishes a video about collecting aid for a 4th vehicle convoy along the KatyaValya line. Народная милиция ДНР publishes photo messages for a fundraising drive for three units. Военкор Котенок makes an appeal for support. Colonelcassad shows two civilian Lada Niva vehicles being prepared. Воин DV publishes a video showing a military hospital providing medical care. The 39th Separate Guards Medical Detachment of the Airborne Forces (VDV) reports a complex and dangerous operation performed on a paratrooper. Военкор Котенок shares a video discussing challenges faced by Russian soldiers, including inadequate footwear and camouflage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow News (Internal): Новости Москвы provides a video about "what you can't google now." Новости Москвы reports that registration fees for vehicles and driver's licenses will increase from September 1, 2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports a person died and nine were injured in a residential building fire in Moscow. This is a domestic civilian incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Population Decline: TASS reports the global population will begin to decline from the 2040s. TASS publishes a photo message stating China's population may significantly decrease to 500-700 million. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Public Wi-Fi: TASS reports the State Duma proposed a program for public Wi-Fi access points. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Omsk Scam: TASS reports a scam where 2.9 million rubles were stolen from an 18-year-old under the guise of flower delivery, with part of the money allegedly sent to aid Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sochi Detainee: ASTRA reports a Sochi resident arrested for "discrediting" the RF army was transferred to a psychiatric hospital. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kursk Oblast: TASS reports the military court sentenced Lithuanian Bartkevichius to 23 years in absentia. Два майора reports the acting governor of Kursk Oblast reports RF AD engaged Ukrainian targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sporting Event: TASS reports Russian synchronized swimmers took second place at the World Championship. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Beer Production: TASS publishes a photo message claiming Russia has displaced Germany from the top five largest beer producers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Law Enforcement Detention: Север.Реалии reports that detentions related to the case of leaking official information occurred in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Krasnodar Krai, and Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Azerbaijan Claims: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Azerbaijan has submitted evidence to Russia of torture and murder of two Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia: TASS reports mass events have been suspended due to threats of assassination attempts on servicemen. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volgograd Oblast: Два майора reports a Telegram channel author in Volgograd was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Steven Seagal: TASS reports actor Steven Seagal has left one of his last projects in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kaluga Oblast: Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on a crime involving migrant children, framing it as a "new trend." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Gambling Advertisement: Alex Parker Returns publishes a video that is an advertisement for online gambling, irrelevant to military intelligence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Blagoveshchensk: Два майора publishes video and photo messages claiming the exposure of a "PLO-OPG" (presumably criminal group) involved in harassing locals. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novgorod Oblast: TASS reports the arrest of Konstantin Kuranov, Minister of Transport and Road Management, on bribery charges. ASTRA provides photo confirmation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports that the Minister of Transport and Road Management of Novgorod Oblast, Konstantin Kuranov, has been arrested in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Trump on China: TASS reports Trump stated he would likely visit China in the near future and did not exclude talks with Putin during this visit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Trump on Obama: TASS reports Trump called on the US Department of Justice to investigate Obama for manipulating intelligence data. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Voronezh: TASS reports that doctors saved a two-year-old child who swallowed 48 magnets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Conscript Testimonial: Оперативний ЗСУ publishes a video of a Russian conscript detailing poor treatment and discipline. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники publishes a video titled "❗️«Мы подписали контракт под давлением»: как обманывают срочников". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Lipetsk Oblast: Игорь Артамонов reports an air danger regime has been introduced across the entire Lipetsk Oblast. Igor Artamonov reports a UAV threat on Yelets and Yelets district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Railway Operations (New): TASS reports that all previously delayed trains of the "Grand Service Express" company have returned to their schedule. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports a locomotive overturned on the access tracks of Amur Thermal Power Plant-1 in Khabarovsk Krai; no casualties reported. This is a domestic civilian incident impacting infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chechnya Hydropower: Kadyrov_95 publishes video showing the opening of a 10 MW hydropower station. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • POW Return (NEW): TASS reports that two RF servicemen in need of medical attention have been returned from Ukrainian-controlled territory. ASTRA corroborates this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports on a video featuring a Russian soldier recently released from Ukrainian captivity, who details alleged mistreatment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS publishes video of a captured Ukrainian officer claiming UAF sent soldiers to their deaths to create passage for "normal" troops. This is a new RF information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Financial Sector (NEW): TASS reports that the Central Bank is considering lowering the key interest rate from 20% to 18% on July 25. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UNESCO (NEW): TASS reports Russia regrets the US withdrawal from UNESCO. TASS also reports the UNESCO Director-General's statement that the US withdrawal was "expected" and would have no financial consequences is surprising. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mural in Stavropol: Colonelcassad reports that a mural of journalist Semyon Eremin, who died during reporting in the SMO zone, was unveiled. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAV Attack in Kryvyi Rih (NEW): ASTRA reports fires after a UAV attack, citing the mayor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kamchatka (NEW): TASS reports 8 kindergarten children in Elizovo (Kamchatka) displayed symptoms of intestinal poisoning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pediatrician Case (NEW): TASS reports pediatrician Nadezhda Buyanova, convicted for "fakes" about RF Armed Forces, is in the same penal colony as director Evgenia Berkovich. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Gold Futures (NEW): TASS reports the price of gold futures rose above $3,450 per troy ounce for the first time since June 16. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • US NNSA Cyberattack (NEW): TASS reports the US National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) was subjected to a hacker attack. This is a significant cyber incident against a critical US national security entity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Khabarovsk Krai Police (NEW): Police of Khabarovsk Krai publish video messages related to domestic law enforcement, likely fraud investigations. This is internal RF domestic news. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Japan PM Resignation (NEW): TASS reports Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will resign. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • US DoD AI Contracts (NEW): Colonelcassad reports US Department of Defense contracts with major AI companies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Lipetsk Oblast (NEW): Igor Artamonov reports the lifting of the "Threat of UAV attack" and "Yellow level" alerts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Gagauzia (NEW): TASS reports the Gagauz Parliament should respond if Chisinau initiates the election of a new head of the autonomy after the Gutul verdict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sino-Russian Relations (NEW): TASS reports China's Ministry of Commerce made representations to the European Commissioner for Trade Policy and Economic Security regarding anti-Russian sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • (NEW): TASS reports that "Pink burgers at "Vkousno - i tochka" are not suitable for Muslims and vegetarians," an internal civilian news item. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): TASS and ASTRA report 33 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions overnight, with Bryansk Oblast confirming two of these. This indicates continued UAF deep strike attempts and sustained RF AD activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports on student family status and transition to young family status after graduation. This is an internal social policy development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sumy Oblast: RF conducted a strike on Sumy community's Kovpakivskyi district. Two explosions heard, likely from KABs, impacting residential area and causing damage to apartment building. Three injured, now increased to 12. Emergency services on site. 5 multi-story buildings, a shopping center, and 18 cars damaged. Threat of aviation munitions for Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. Colonelcassad reports "Anvar" unit operating in the border areas of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, providing drone footage of UAF positions. Enemy reconnaissance UAV from the northeast towards Sumy, with possible AD activity. KAB launches confirmed on Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy: RBC-Ukraine and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publish video and photo evidence showing the aftermath of KAB strikes, confirming three injured, including a child. STERNENKO reports a woman was killed in Sumy due to a drone attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports RF attacked with drones in daylight, damaging a medical facility and playground. A woman and a child were injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a video showing a street scene in Sumy, likely for propaganda purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia launched another strike on Sumy Oblast, resulting in power outages. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing emergency responders aiding injured individuals, confirming 1 fatality and 10 injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports a woman died and others were injured due to a massive Russian UAV strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Suspilne reports explosions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): Sumy partially without power after RF attack, per acting mayor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): Оперативний ЗСУ reports that part of Sumy is without power due to an enemy attack on civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy Direction: "Два майора" publishes FPV drone footage claiming to target a UAF soldier. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports high-speed target heading towards Sumy from Kursk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports direction of target towards Khotin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Enemy strike UAVs from Sumy Oblast are entering northeastern Poltava Oblast, heading southwest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Enemy strike UAVs detected in southeastern Sumy Oblast, heading west. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes a photo message claiming "Northerners buried the Airborne Assault Forces of Ukraine," accompanied by a collage of images of individuals, likely RF propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Varachino, Sumy Oblast: Операция Z and "Воин DV" claim Russian army liberated Varachino. This is an unverified RF claim. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Sumy Oblast: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy UAVs in northern Sumy Oblast with possible AD activity. Air Force reports a likely reconnaissance UAV heading north towards Sumy city. Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. Means for their destruction have been engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kryvyi Rih: Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation is controlled as of morning 22.07.25. Oleksandr Vilkul provides a briefing summary. Олександр Вілкул reports explosions due to mass Shahed attack. Суспільне reports explosions. Николаевский Ванёк reports the 7 UAVs heading to Kryvyi Rih were neutralized. Николаевский Ванёк reports "minus" on the Mopeds (Shaheds) towards Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports Shahed UAV impacts in several locations, including an enterprise and private homes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatyvnyi ZSU reports enemy attacked Kryvyi Rih with Shaheds in several places. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Andriivka: Военкор Котенок shares civilian testimonial from displaced person, highlighting destruction and humanitarian impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Krasny Liman: Сливочный каприз publishes photo messages regarding Krasny Liman - Zelyonaya Dolina. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Odesa: Colonelcassad publishes multi-panel image related to Odesa, likely showing areas affected by strikes or for future targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Crimean Shores: "Два майора" publishes video showing military-style inflatable boat with personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Novomikhailovka: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of a woman mourning her son, a Russian SMO participant who died storming Novomikhailovka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Grushevske, Donetsk Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF army occupied Hrushevske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Dachne, Donetsk Oblast: Народная милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Toretsk Direction: Олексій Білошицький provides video captioned "Adventures of patrolmen in Toretsk direction🤙". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Lugansk (LNR): Рыбарь reports on an incident in Lugansk. Mash на Донбассе reports a court recognized the "Kastus Kalinovsky Regiment" as a terrorist organization. Colonelcassad reports a court in DNR recognized the "Kastus Kalinovsky Regiment" as a terrorist organization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Lithuania-Belarus Border: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА publishes graphic on Lithuanian military exercises near Belarus border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast: STERNENKO reports a gas worker, Igor Goncharenko, was killed by Russians. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Zaporizhzhia Front: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes photos showing continued reinforcement. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a video message about strengthening the front, including increasing the defense fund to 3 billion hryvnias, constructing an anti-drone road on the Orikhivskyyi highway, and plans for over 200 km of such infrastructure. Mentions a meeting with the Minister of Defense and President Zelenskyy's decision on Ukraine's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention (anti-personnel mines), stating daily production and delivery of 1,000-2,000 mine components. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Pokrovsk: Рыбарь channel publishes videos claiming to show Russian infantry. Воин DV publishes drone footage showing an armored vehicle being engaged. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны publish video claiming fierce battles, increased pace of advance, and destruction of enemy equipment and personnel. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video claiming RF DRG activity on the road. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Moscow: Север.Реалии publishes a video showing a protest in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukraine (Internal Affairs): Стрелков Игорь Иванович reports Ukrainian authorities have mandated UOC to declare a break with ROC by August 18, or face prohibition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kaluga Oblast: Alex Parker Returns reports a crime involving migrant children. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Luhansk Direction: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is crowdfunding for two copters for artillery reconnaissance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Ukraine General: Night operations provide low visibility, favoring RF UAV and missile saturation tactics. Kharkiv Oblast expects worsening weather (heavy rains, thunderstorms), which could impact ground operations. Oleg Synegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, reports significant weather deterioration is possible. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kyiv City: RBC-Ukraine and Оперативний ЗСУ publish videos showing a crane collapse due to strong winds/storm. RBC-Ukraine also reports heavy rain causing flooded streets. This indicates significant adverse weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports 5 individuals hospitalized due to bad weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Odesa: RBC-Ukraine reports severe flooding due to heavy rain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dry Landscape: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video showing a dry, somewhat barren landscape with smoke plumes in the distance. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Russia: Heavy rainfall in Moscow Oblast indicates adverse weather conditions. Bridge collapse in Moscow region due to heavy rains confirmed. Significant flooding confirmed in Moscow. TASS reports 15 "Tavriya" trains delayed in communication with Crimea. Train delays at Paveletsky Station due to weather. All trains to Black Sea resorts on July 22 will follow schedule. Старше Эдды implies human intervention in Moscow's heavy rains. Новости Москвы publishes video showing heavy rain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ТАСС publishes videos showing flooded metro tracks at "Bagrationovskaya" and "Kuntsevskaya" stations. Another video shows a flooded train station/underpass. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes multiple videos showing severe urban flooding. ASTRA publishes videos showing severe urban flooding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kabardino-Balkaria: ASTRA and Operatyvnyi ZSU report a mudslide in Tyrnyauz and a damaged bridge support due to severe flooding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donbas Drought: Mash на Донбассе provides photo messages of the dried-up Khanzhenkovo reservoir. This indicates a significant drought. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Illegal Logging (Ukraine Carpathians): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports large-scale illegal logging in Ukrainian Carpathians caused 55.8 million UAH in damages. This is an environmental issue, not directly war-related. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF:
  • Air Defense (AD): Fully engaged nationwide against multi-vector RF aerial assault. AD actively tracked multiple missile groups across multiple oblasts. Kyiv AD actively engaged approximately 10 inbound Shaheds and multiple missiles. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast AD shot down 14 UAVs. President Zelenskyy reports UAF AD destroyed over 20 missiles and the "overwhelming majority" of drones (344 of 623 total aerial targets). Southern Defense Forces report 18 Shaheds destroyed. Air Force reports 224 targets shot down/suppressed. Germany to provide 5 Patriot systems and ammunition. Norway ready to provide significant additional funding. UAF AF reports UAV threat for Kharkiv Oblast. Sili Oborony Pivdnya Ukraїny video shows Ukrainian soldiers operating a ZU-23 anti-aircraft gun countering Russian Shahed drones, claiming over 30 air targets neutralized. Air Defense is active in Odesa, engaging Shahed UAVs. Netherlands will make a significant contribution to US Patriot AD systems. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video of 31st Brigade anti-aircraft drone systems successfully attacking Russian drones in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. As of 06:00Z, 26 enemy UAVs have been shot down/suppressed. Air Force confirmed 42 Russian UAVs attacked overnight. Enemy UAV in Black Sea, course to Odesa, AD engaged. UAV from northeast towards Sumy, with possible AD activity. Reconnaissance UAVs on northeast of Chernihiv and southeast of Kryvyi Rih. Air Force reports a likely reconnaissance UAV heading north towards Sumy city. Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. Means for their destruction have been engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showcasing the "Pomsta" (Revenge) Brigade of the State Border Guard Service (DPSU) using drone interceptors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes a video showing a drone flying in the sky, with Ukrainian emblems and a QR code for donations, captioned "Signum unit of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade continuously stands guard over our sky!". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports Germany will transfer two Patriot systems if they can be quickly replaced. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports Germany's willingness to transfer two Patriot systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок reports German Defense Minister Pistorius is ready to quickly supply Kyiv with two Patriot systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes a video showing a cockpit view from a fighter jet, likely a MiG-29 in Ukrainian Air Force markings. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The crash of a Mirage 2000 in Volyn Oblast due to technical malfunction, confirmed by UAF Air Force. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports 7 UAVs heading to Kryvyi Rih were neutralized. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports "minus" on the Mopeds (Shaheds) towards Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports the lifting of UAV threat for all regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Services: DSNS (State Emergency Service) are actively engaged across multiple oblasts. Minister of Internal Affairs reports 15 fires due to Russian shelling. KMVA confirms rescue and emergency work ongoing nationwide. Cleanup and emergency services are working in Sumy. Confirmed images and videos from RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU show DSNS personnel actively engaged in firefighting and damage assessment operations in Odesa. DSNS Ukraine confirms three injured, including a child, in Sumy. STERNENKO confirms one person injured in Odesa. DSNS and local authorities are actively engaged in Kramatorsk. Олексій Білошицький reports paramedics assisting a civilian in Sloviansk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing emergency responders aiding injured individuals. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): RBC-Ukraine publishes photo messages showing DSNS personnel engaged in firefighting operations at a market in Kharkiv Oblast, confirming their active role in responding to RF attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Control Measures: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats lifted, localized drone alerts persist. Public warnings for shelter ongoing. Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) providing updates; Lukyanivska metro station now fully reopened. Brig. Gen. Hennadiy Shapovalov appointed new commander of UAF Ground Forces. Ukraine plans to open four new embassies. Zelenskyy states new negotiations with Russia planned for Wednesday in Istanbul. Odesa Oblast Military Administration calls for residents to take shelter. ZAPORIZHZHIYA OBLAST MILITARY ADMINISTRATION HAS LIFTED AIR RAID ALERT. Kryvyi Rih mayor states situation is controlled. Generall Staff continues daily photos promoting nationwide moment of silence. RBC-Ukraine reports President Zelenskyy introduced NSDC decision on moratorium on baseless checks and interference by state bodies in business activities. Rustem Umierov will lead the Ukrainian delegation for negotiations with Russia. Rada considers bill to limit NABU/SAP powers today. Zelenskyy states focus on prisoner exchanges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports on the moratorium on business inspections. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы reports on a proposal in the State Duma to allow pregnant women and mothers with children to park in handicapped spaces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports on President Zelenskyy's expectations for upcoming prisoner exchange negotiations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Security Services: SBU and OGP conducting special operation to "neutralize Russian influence on NABU." Detention of NABU detective head (Ruslan Magamedrasulov) suspected of aiding RF. Over 70 searches conducted. SBU initiated comprehensive check on adherence to state secrets legislation in SAP. General Director of "Forests of Ukraine" served suspicion for illegal enrichment. Detention of NABU elite unit "D-2" employee suspected of spying for Russian special services confirmed. President Zelenskyy emphasized need for legal architecture to hold Russia accountable for war. Ukraine returned a teenager forcibly taken from Mariupol to Russia. G7 Ambassadors alarmed by NABU scandal. Ukrainian police helped neutralize pro-Russian hacker network NoName057(16). A court has remanded NABU employee Viktor Husarov into custody without bail. An employee of NABU's "most elite closed unit," suspected of treason, has had a pre-trial detention measure chosen. NABU Director Krivonos called on Zelenskyy not to sign bill limiting NABU and SAP powers. Prosecutor General's Office reports new facts of restricted information leaks from NABU. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора publishes a photo message stating the General Prosecutor's Office is systematically holding accountable individuals working for the enemy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes photo messages about an international police special operation that identified a "pseudominer" of facilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the court arrested the head of a NABU unit, suspected of aiding the aggressor state. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора publishes photo messages related to a criminal organization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора also reports holding a meeting with G7 representatives, SBU, and SBI. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports that international partners has received answers regarding the work of Ukrainian law enforcement agencies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes a video showing a protest in Kyiv regarding the recently adopted bill limiting NABU and SAP powers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes photos and videos of protests in Kyiv, Dnipro, and Lviv against the bill. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a video showing a protest in Kyiv, with a cynical pro-RF caption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС questions why Parliament (263 people) forgot why Russia attacked Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) SBU Head Vasyl Maliuk discusses the NABU case in a press conference. Maliuk commented on the situation with bill №12414, stating "No one liquidated anyone." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photos showing SBU Head Vasyl Maliuk at a meeting with G7 ambassadors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) President Zelenskyy signed bill №12414, which makes NABU and SAP dependent on the Prosecutor General. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The status of bill №12414 on the Verkhovna Rada website has been changed from "signed by the President" back to "being prepared for signature." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also clarifies the status of bill №12414. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports that the law on NABU and SAP has been published in the Rada's "Voice of Ukraine" newspaper, confirming its enactment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the scandalous law on limiting NABU and SAP independence has been published. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Кирил Буданов comments on the NABU and SAP law, stating the nation loses if torn by internal contradictions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) President Zelenskyy comments on the law regarding NABU and SAP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zelenskyy has directly addressed the NABU situation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of President Zelenskyy stating "NABU and SAP will work, and it's important that the Prosecutor General is set to ensure the inevitability of punishment for those who go against the law." This indicates a continued commitment to anti-corruption despite the recent legislative changes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): Colonelcassad publishes multiple videos showing protests in Kyiv against the law limiting the powers of NABU and SAP, confirming public discontent regarding anti-corruption reforms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Foreign Volunteers: 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" claims 2,000 Colombians fighting in its ranks. TASS claims UAF deployed a platoon of "Latin American mercenaries" to Aleksandrovgrad, DNR, and then claims they fled. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing Ukrainian soldiers, identified as being of Latin American origin, participating in combat training exercises on Sumy region, with their commander stating 2,000 Colombian servicemen have come to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Resource Requirements: UAF National Guard's "Rubizh" brigade crowdfunding for "destroyed property and equipment." Zelenskyy emphasizes need for increased domestic production of weapons and drones (50% within six months). Ukraine needs $6 billion to cover gap in weapons procurement. Britain transferred $200 million of $940 million in air defense assets and artillery shells. Urgent fundraiser for drones for UAF 32nd Steel Brigade. French companies ready to start drone production in Ukraine. Canada will allocate $14.6 million USD for maintenance of Ukrainian tanks and finance Ukrainian defense industry. Canada will allocate $15 million for Leopard 2 tank repairs. NATO can provide additional funding for Ukrainian army. Netherlands provides €200M for interceptor drones and €125M for F-16 maintenance. Ukraine will need at least $120 billion for defense next year. РБК-Україна publishes a video appeal from the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade's artillery unit, requesting Electronic Warfare (EW) systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO provides photo and video messages showing a new batch of 417 drones delivered to the front line. STERNENKO continues to promote fundraising for drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна publishes a photo message stating that Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko claims up to 90% of strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this year were carried out by drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) DeepState reports Ukraine will need at least $120 billion for defense next year. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is crowdfunding for two copters for artillery reconnaissance for the 63rd Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO promotes a raffle for a drone pendant. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO further emphasizes the need for continued funding for drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Training: UAF 61st OMBr tank crews conducting rigorous training. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes multiple photos and captions about the role of a sergeant in the military. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF 63rd Mechanized Brigade reports liquidation of 33 RF personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chernihiv: Colonelcassad reports TCC personnel violently detaining a man. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна provides an explanation from the AFU on why TCC conduct visits at concerts and exhibitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UK Sanctions: The UK has introduced new sanctions against 135 tankers belonging to Russia's "shadow fleet." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Losses: General Staff of UAF provides estimated total combat losses for RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine publishes statistical report on RF estimated losses (Photo message). Operatyvnyi ZSU reports +970 enemy personnel eliminated daily (Photo message). These are consistent with previous reports and indicate high RF personnel attrition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade: Video suggests active counter-drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showcasing the "Pomsta" (Revenge) Brigade of the State Border Guard Service (DPSU) using drone interceptors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Domestic Production: Domestic 155-mm Bohdana-BG howitzers have entered service with the 40th Separate Artillery Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Psychological Operations: 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України released a video appealing to RF soldiers to surrender. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Corruption: President of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine suspended. Investigation into illegal coal mining completed. Official of "Forests of Ukraine" notified of suspicion for illegal enrichment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Drone Recruitment: DeepState publishes a recruitment video for the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade's unmanned systems unit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) DeepState promotes an 8-day free IT professions test drive. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Convict Mobilization: Approximately 9500 convicts have joined the AFU. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes a video showing a former convict detailing poor treatment and being forced into assault roles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukraine-Denmark Drone Interceptor: Ukraine and Denmark are developing an AI-powered drone interceptor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Prosecutor Investigation: Investigations launched into attacks on Odesa, Donetsk, and Sumy regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Currency Exchange Rates: Exchange offices lowered the USD rate and raised the EUR rate. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ramstein Meeting: Generals Staff publishes photo messages indicating participation of Ukrainian Minister of Defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Soldier with Weapon: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes photos aiming to boost morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chief of General Staff at Diplomatic Event: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes photos of Major General Andrii Hnatov speaking at a plenary session for heads of foreign diplomatic institutions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pension for Military Personnel: Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes information on pensions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • F-16 Project: Повітряні Сили ЗС України publishes video showcasing an F-16 fighter jet and mentions a "new project." RBC-Україна reports Air Force received first unique mobile complexes for F-16 maintenance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zelenskyy Meeting: Zelenskiy / Official publishes photo messages regarding a meeting on Ukraine's negotiation results and prisoner exchanges. Zelenskiy / Official posts a video of President Zelenskyy interacting with military personnel and civilians, presenting awards. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also publishes the same video from President Zelenskyy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Occupant Targeting: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing aeroreconnaissance of the 4th battalion of the 101st Brigade targeting a Russian occupant. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes drone video showing a munition drop impacting a group of five Russian occupiers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • STERNENKO Tactical Action: STERNENKO provides video from "Sanitary Zone Flying Skull" showing drones on fiber optics flying into enemy positions. STERNENKO publishes drone footage showing an engagement using fiber-optic drones. STERNENKO publishes a video showing an FPV drone strike on a Russian military individual. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes a video of an attempted Ukrainian drone ambush on a Russian pickup truck that failed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes drone footage showing an FPV drone strike on a Russian 'Bukhanka' vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Friendly Civilian Infrastructure: Олександр Вілкул publishes multiple photo messages related to thermal modernization of education facilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Military Administration (OTU "Kharkiv"): ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts a message stating "Treason is needed by the enemy, but the traitor is needed by no one!" ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes drone footage showing the Khartia brigade's engagement against enemy personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, publishes photo messages about strengthening partnership with the French Republic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Front Reinforcement: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes photos showing reinforcement efforts. 🇺🇦 Запопорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a video message about strengthening the front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Medical Front Forum: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes multiple photo messages from a forum titled "Medical Front: experience, challenges, future." 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes photo messages regarding the professional holiday for miners and metallurgists. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • FPV Storm: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes a video titled "FPV-storm from Slobozhansky paratroopers!". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NABU/SAP Legislation (UPDATE): STERNENKO publishes photo messages showing the list of MPs who voted for the bill. STERNENKO publishes a video of a parliamentary session where the bill was voted on. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns claim Zelenskyy has signed the law liquidating the independence of anti-corruption bodies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO reports the court chose pre-trial detention without bail for Ruslan Magamedrasulov. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zelenskiy / Official states the anti-corruption infrastructure will work without Russian influence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Prisoner of War Affairs: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) publishes multiple photos from a meeting with the families of soldiers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Public Health Campaign: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a public service announcement video on the dangers of tobacco and nicotine products. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Video showcasing tactical effectiveness: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video with the caption "😎🇺🇦". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Drone strike footage: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes a video with the caption "Нові "шедеври" "Мосфільму"". (CONFIDENCE: LOW - as the content is ambiguous and not clearly military in nature).
  • Inter-regional cooperation: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes photos regarding a visit from Myroslav Biletskyi, Head of Zakarpattia Oblast Military Administration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Israeli MFA Visit to Kyiv: РБК-Україна reports Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar has arrived. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms the visit. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar has arrived. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Robot Medevac: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes a video demonstrating the 5th Separate Assault Kyiv Brigade using a ground robot for medical evacuation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security Event: RBC-Ukraine reports the commander of the National Police assault brigade "Lyut" (Rage), Maksym Kazban, died in a traffic accident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes photos regarding the death of Maksym Kazban. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes operational information as of 22:00 22.07.2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Volunteer for AFU: ASTRA reports a Russian national who fought for the AFU was unable to enter Poland. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian POW Return (NEW): TASS and ASTRA report that two RF servicemen in need of medical attention have been returned from Ukrainian-controlled territory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports on a video featuring a Russian soldier recently released from Ukrainian captivity, who details alleged mistreatment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS publishes video of a captured Ukrainian officer claiming UAF sent soldiers to their deaths to create passage for "normal" troops. This is a new RF information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Romania (NEW): RBC-Ukraine reports Romania is forming a voluntary contract army. This indicates a proactive measure by a NATO member on Ukraine's border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RUF:
  • Deep Operations (UAV/Missile/Aviation Munitions): RF continues to demonstrate an extremely high capability for widespread, high-volume, multi-vector aerial attacks. The confirmed use of Tu-95MS strategic bombers for cruise missile launches (24 confirmed), alongside continued massed Shahed drone attacks (426 total), and the re-engagement of MiG-31K for Kinzhal ballistic missile use indicates a sustained and robust deep strike capability. Their ability to simultaneously target Northern, Eastern, Central, and significantly Western Ukraine demonstrates coordination and resource availability. The confirmed use of X-101 with cluster munition warheads in Chernivtsi represents an escalation in lethality. The claimed use of FABs on UAF reserves in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates continued air-to-ground precision strike capability. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025. Colonelcassad's claim of a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv confirms tactical adaptation to target UAF domestic defense production. RF has adapted to use KABs against Sumy, Dobropillia and Kramatorsk. Continued use of strike UAVs against Eastern Dnipropetrovsk (Samarivskyi district, now Synelnykivskyi district), Poltava Oblast, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. The confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa indicates RF willingness to hit urban centers without specific military targets, or a failure of precision targeting. Ballistic missile threat confirmed for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and now Dnipropetrop sk Oblast (Samarskyi district). Kotsnews reporting on "Harpies" and their kinetic effect on a village, indicating a new, potent loitering munition or PGMs. MoD Russia also claims destruction of a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad's claim of "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk and associated smoke plume indicates continued widespread use of Shaheds against various targets. Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. Старше Эдды publishes drone video showing an FPV drone strike on a building, followed by a fire, and the Ukrainian flag on a damaged structure. Colonelcassad's video confirming "Harpy" drone use in Orlivka, Sumy Oblast, indicates an adaptive deployment of new drone types for localized strikes. MoD Russia's video shows continued use of MLRS. WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a large explosion and secondary explosions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS crew eliminating enemy targets on the right bank of Dnepr river. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's claim of LMUR use against a UAV command post in Antonivka, Kherson Oblast, indicates the deployment of precision-guided missiles against high-value UAF C2 targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports 7 Shahed UAVs flying towards/through Shyroke/Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports another 7 Shahed UAVs in Beryslav district, heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Олександр Вілкул reports explosions in Kryvyi Rih due to mass Shahed attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ and ASTRA report UAV attacks on Novocherkassk railway station and Novocherkassk GRES (thermal power plant). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) One RF Shahed UAV reported near Posad-Pokrovske (Kherson Oblast). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Shahed UAV impacts reported in Kryvyi Rih, including an enterprise and private homes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF UAVs in Eastern Kharkiv continue movement south. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction and warns of threat of aviation munitions for frontline oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): STERNENKO publishes multiple videos and photo messages of UAV attacks on railway infrastructure, a GRES, and a Rostelecom building in Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast, confirming significant damage and civilian observations of explosions and fires. This indicates a high-impact, coordinated UAF deep strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tactical Drone Capabilities (Enhanced, Counter-Drone, FPV Precision, Fiber-Optic Drones, Robotic Ground Vehicles): The reported destruction of a UAF D-20 howitzer in Kherson by an RF FPV drone ("Tuman") demonstrates RF's continued and effective tactical integration of drones for precision engagements against UAF artillery assets. The new focus on Rostov Oblast becoming a leader in UAV development, with military tech transfer to civilian applications and expanded production, highlights RF's strategic intent to massively scale its drone capabilities and industrial base. The FPV drone strike on a UAF soldier in Sumy direction and two injured in Belgorod by FPV drone further demonstrates precision targeting capabilities. MoD Russia's video of "Feniks" drone in action further confirms active development and deployment of tactical drones for reconnaissance and kinetic effects. Colonelcassad's claim of destroying a UAF UAV command post near Chasiv Yar indicates continued RF counter-drone capabilities. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights counter-drone capabilities. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's drone footage from Chasiv Yar direction indicates continued tactical drone operations. Воин DV's video claiming destruction of armored vehicles and personnel in Alexandrovgrad by 14th Guards Spetsnaz and 5th Guards Tank Brigade further emphasizes RF's advanced tactical drone integration for kinetic effects. Narodnaya милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles near Dachne, potentially with drones. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports the downing of a heavy "Baba Yaga" drone in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Nova Kakhovka drone strike, as per WarGonzo, shows RF drone strike capabilities against ground targets. Colonelcassad's video on "Harpy" drones confirms their tactical deployment for strikes on personnel and vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes drone video claiming the 305th Artillery Brigade using a Lancet loitering munition to strike a UAF Dana self-propelled howitzer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a photo message showcasing a new anti-drone system from Rostec, capable of localized signal suppression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок claims destruction of a Ukrainian boat with personnel in Kherson direction using a fiber-optic FPV drone. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS publishes video showing FPV drone operators from "Rubikon" center striking AFU armored vehicles and personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном publishes a video showcasing the 'Omich' (Омич) robotic complex, a tracked ground vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes drone footage showing military vehicles moving along a road, some appearing to be trucks or transport vehicles, with evidence of anti-drone netting/camouflage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Narodnaya милиция ДНР publishes a video claiming successful FPV drone strikes by a special forces unit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes drone footage from the "Centre" group showing explosions targeting enemy vehicles (SUV, tank) and positions (BABA-YAGA drone, STARLINK terminal). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's appeal for FPV drones and Starlink suggests these are critical, in-demand assets for RF frontline units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes drone footage from the "Centre" group on the Krasnoarmeyskoye direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad (NEW): Airbus showcases its tactical VTOL drone 'Flexrotor' for reconnaissance, surveillance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad is showcasing a video of Chinese "FeiLong" series loitering munitions, demonstrating advanced capabilities including swarm operations and precision targeting. This indicates potential future acquisitions or technology transfer for RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): Воин DV publishes thermal/night vision drone footage showing an explosion engulfing a lead vehicle in a convoy on a dirt road, indicating continued kinetic strikes by RF drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare (Aggressive, Psychological, and Exploitative, Adaptive, Expanding Scope, Exploiting Internal Ukrainian Issues, Targeting Foreign Policy Debates, Leveraging US Politics, Internal Political Control, Normalization): RF continues to use its military actions to bolster its narrative. Messaging from milbloggers directly aims to terrorize the population and undermine Ukrainian morale, while simultaneously attempting to project overwhelming force and futility of Ukrainian resistance. Dissemination of claimed UAF equipment losses (e.g., Bradley BMP) and drone losses ("Baba Yaga" drones), including the destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit in South-Donetsk direction and a D-20 howitzer in Kherson, and a UAF UAV command post, and AFU armored vehicles near Dachne, further reinforce this narrative. RF state media leverages UAF drone attacks on Russian territory to portray Russia as a victim and justify its actions. RF sources promote narratives of internal corruption and social friction within Ukraine (now specifically claiming NABU loses Western "roof" due to Trump, and Zelenskyy signed law liquidating anti-corruption bodies). Propaganda focuses on internal RF stability and development. Continued use of historical revisionism. Claims of ground advances (Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Malaya Tokmachka claim, Torske claim), Starytsia, Varachino, Hrushevske, Novotoretske, Krasnoarmeysk infiltration, Konstantinovskoye, Poltavka, Dzerzhinsk, Torske, Komar) and effective DRG ambushes in contested areas (Pokrovsk, Krasnoarmeysk) are heavily publicized. RF milbloggers employ cynical/mocking language to demoralize Ukrainian audiences. RF attempts to exploit perceived US weakness in drone tactics. Internal RF information operations counter perceived "traitors." RF channels publish content projecting public support. TASS actively uses claimed UAF POW statements to portray desertion and low morale within Ukrainian ranks. RF is attempting to leverage historical monuments in Moldova to portray Ukraine as allied with Nazis. TASS is attempting to influence US political discourse by amplifying statements like Jeffrey Sachs' comments on Trump and Ukraine. TASS is now actively promoting civilian news, such as Russia's representation at an international music contest, likely to normalize the information environment and divert attention from military operations. The publication of a POW interrogation video by TASS (Yevgeny Popelyshkin) indicates RF's continued and adaptable capability to exploit captured personnel for psychological operations, aiming to sow discord and undermine UAF command effectiveness. RF will continue to leverage civilian testimonials, as seen from Kursk Oblast and Mash on Donbas, and now Andriivka, to portray itself as a victim of Ukrainian aggression and to justify its military actions to its domestic audience. RF is increasingly using cultural and religious narratives to foster internal unity and traditional values, as seen with promotion of Orthodox Christian traditions and news about spiritual-moral culture in schools. TASS claims average of 400 UAF strikes on RF civilian objects per day. The new reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia is likely to be leveraged by RF to show continued European reliance and economic influence. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed to project stability and resilience despite high-level losses. RF milbloggers will likely continue to question the effectiveness of Western AD (e.g., Patriot against Kinzhal). Alex Parker Returns' military recruitment videos demonstrate continued information operations to attract personnel. TASS reporting on detentions for monument desecration in Crimea is part of this narrative. TASS reporting on the appeal of a billionaire in a bribery case also frames the internal legal system as functioning. The FSB's claims of thwarting Ukrainian special services are intended to project internal security effectiveness. The detention of a former presidential candidate's staff member highlights RF's control over its political information space. The new criminal cases against a former Deputy Minister of Defense demonstrate the state's willingness to publicize internal corruption issues. News from Moscow criticizing EU "brain drain" highlights economic information operations. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. TASS reports that the acceptance of applications for IT deferrals from military service has begun. ASTRA reports a pensioner from Izhevsk was sentenced for treason but released due to health. TASS reports State Duma adopted law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, reinforcing the narrative of external threats and justifying internal security measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора reports the author of a Volgograd Telegram channel was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism, demonstrating continued legal enforcement against online content. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on migrant crime in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump, by rejecting Ukraine's NATO membership, swayed it towards negotiations with Russia. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception and suggest US/Ukraine disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном highlights a State Duma Deputy's request to investigate a perfume company for potentially funding the AFU, indicating RF's expanding scope of internal information operations to identify and suppress perceived threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z reports that Ukrainian MP Skorokhod admitted that TCC "beat mobilized people to death" across Ukraine, an RF information operation aimed at creating internal Ukrainian disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns posts an image with text that translates to "The puzzle has come together. Inside information.", which likely refers to an internal RF information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video showing film director Igor Bogomolov, husband of Ksenia Sobchak, calling the war with Ukraine "the luck and happiness of our generation," and noting Putin awarded him the title "Honored Artist of Russia" the next day. This signals the use of cultural figures to bolster pro-war sentiment and justify the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a photo message containing a statement from the former Polish Land Forces Commander Skrzypczak, highlighting his calls to attack Belarus and Kaliningrad, used to vilify foreign military figures and reinforce the narrative of external threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump is likely to visit China soon, and did not exclude talks with Putin during this visit. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception and suggest RF's diplomatic standing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump called on the US Department of Justice to investigate Obama for manipulating intelligence data related to US elections and Russia. This is a direct attempt to leverage US internal political divisions for RF's information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad states that the newly appointed PM Yulia Svrydenko's claim that corruption is exaggerated in Ukrainian society is a lie, continuing the "Ukrainian corruption" narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews publishes a graphic titled "EVENING BELL" with text criticizing Ukrainian authorities. This is a common RF information operation tactic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports the US House Speaker states no sanctions bills against Russia will be considered until Trump requests it, indicating RF's continued influence operations on US foreign policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном posts a photo message with the caption "Гудбай, ЮНЕСКО! Навсегда?", referring to Trump's potential withdrawal of the US from UNESCO, which is a common RF information operation to highlight perceived Western disarray. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the death of musician Ozzy Osbourne, which is a civilian news item, but its dissemination by TASS could be a low-effort attempt to project normalcy and divert attention. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) MoD Russia publishes a video showing a captured AFU serviceman discussing foreign mercenaries. This is a direct RF information operation to create doubt and demoralize Ukrainian forces and their international partners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo illustrating a Duma legislative session, accompanied by text detailing new fines for searching extremist content, including VPNs, and claiming it will reduce fraudulent calls from Ukrainian call centers. This frames internal RF legal actions as a counter to hybrid threats from Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Рыбарь posts a photo message titled "Цена предательства" (The Price of Betrayal) with a stylized graphic, indicating an ongoing information operation focused on loyalty and deterrence against perceived betrayal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's immediate claim of "liquidation" of a UAF brigade commander, contradicting Ukrainian reports, indicates a rapid and adaptive information operation to capitalize on UAF losses, regardless of cause. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine's reporting on the "chief ideologist of Putin" rewriting history indicates a Ukrainian counter-narrative focusing on RF's information manipulation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z reports a Ukrainian MP criticizing anti-corruption protests, which is amplified by RF milbloggers to further push the narrative of Ukrainian internal division. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок posts a narrative on why Russians do not accept the "brutalization" of Ukraine, aiming to justify the conflict to a domestic and potentially international audience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок publishes a video purportedly showing Ukrainians melting down memorial plaques, which is a strong information operation intended to portray Ukrainians as desecrating history and engaging in "Nazism." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Иран claims it does not seek nuclear weapons, but will continue uranium enrichment, a statement RF will leverage in diplomatic messaging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) «Зона СВО» publishes a video titled "Я русский офицер," featuring a Chechen fighter promoting Russian identity and combat operations. This is a targeted propaganda piece to recruit or inspire specific demographics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Russia regrets the US withdrawal from UNESCO, anticipating political and financial consequences. TASS also reports the UNESCO Director-General's statement that the US withdrawal was "expected" and would have no financial consequences is surprising. These statements are part of RF's diplomatic posturing to frame US actions negatively. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that the "Russian Kherson" underground organization claimed that UAF in Kherson Oblast intentionally settles near civilians. This is an RF information operation aimed at portraying UAF as using human shields. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatsiya Z posts a video related to accusations against Maxim Divnich, a Russian figure, which is then framed to criticize the accusers, likely part of an internal Russian information operation to discredit perceived opponents or maintain public support for certain figures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS has published a new video of a surrendered Ukrainian soldier, claiming that Ukraine is sending invalids with prosthetics to fight. This is a new information operation to demoralize UAF and sow disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's recent video of a Russian POW recounting alleged harsh treatment in Ukrainian captivity is a new, active information operation aimed at discrediting Ukrainian forces and potentially influencing international bodies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): RF milbloggers are publishing video of Russian military training African officers with motivational speeches. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): TASS publishes new video of a captured Ukrainian soldier claiming commanders promised "girls" for successful mission completion, indicating a new line of psychological operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS quotes Ukrainian security sources claiming that some mercenaries terminated their contracts after encountering the frontline. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS publishes video of a captured Ukrainian officer claiming UAF sent soldiers to their deaths to create passage for "normal" troops. This is a new RF information operation to discredit UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports Trump stated that Kyiv likely did not spend all the money allocated by the US for arms purchases. This is a new RF information operation to question US aid to Ukraine and sow doubt. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS publishes a video of a surrendered Ukrainian soldier asking Zelenskyy to end the war, continuing the RF information operation to undermine Ukrainian resolve and leadership. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): TASS reports on social policy regarding student families transitioning to young family status after graduation, suggesting RF's continued efforts to normalize social life amidst the conflict and project state care for its citizens. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Artillery Systems (New): Colonelcassad's claim of the use of 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from North Korea indicates a continued and potentially expanding capability to field new or additional artillery systems. MoD Russia's video confirms Uragan MLRS use. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS firing rockets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports continued RF use of artillery and FPV drones in Nikopol district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS crew eliminating enemy targets on the right bank of Dnepr river. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes video showing RF artillery and UAVs destroying satellite communication equipment, personnel, and strongpoints in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Border Operations: The identified "Anvar" unit operating in Sumy/Chernihiv border regions demonstrates RF's persistent capability for localized reconnaissance and targeting operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in Chernihiv Oblast, and UAVs approaching Nizhyn. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Igor Artamonov reports a UAV threat on Yelets and Yelets district in Lipetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): Colonelcassad publishes new video of "Anvar" unit operating in the border areas of Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts, showing reconnaissance and drone strikes on UAF positions, including a 120-mm mortar position. This confirms continued cross-border reconnaissance and kinetic activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Legal Measures & Internal Control: TASS reporting on the in absentia charging of a blogger for promoting terrorism in Dagestan indicates RF's continued capability and willingness to use legal mechanisms to control internal narratives. The Khabarovsk Krai Police reporting on a criminal case indicates continued focus on domestic law and order. The detention of a hacker in Novosibirsk indicates continued focus on cyber security. TASS reports searches at Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko's home, suggesting internal anti-corruption or security operations. "Два майора" discusses sentencing related to illegal migration, indicating internal security focus. The reporting on the death of the Supreme Court Chairman highlights the functioning of the RF legal system. The detentions in Crimea for monument desecration underscore RF's efforts to control historical narratives. The detention of a migrant in Tyumen and the appeal of a billionaire in a bribery case indicate application of internal law enforcement. The FSB's claims of thwarting Ukrainian special services are intended to project internal security effectiveness. The detention of a former presidential candidate's staff member highlights RF's control over its political information space. The new criminal cases against a former Deputy Minister of Defense for corruption highlight RF's legal mechanisms for internal accountability. Putin's toughening of rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports indicates increased state control over economic interfaces. RF MFA's expanded list of banned EU officials is another example of diplomatic-legal measures. Raids on "Baza" media outlet, and the subsequent arrest of its editor-in-chief, signify an escalated and adaptive control over internal information flows and suppression of independent media. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. TASS reports that the acceptance of applications for IT deferrals from military service has begun. ASTRA reports a pensioner from Izhevsk was sentenced for treason but released due to health. TASS reports State Duma adopted law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. (UPDATE): TASS reports 12 UAVs were destroyed overnight over Tula Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Duma adopted an amendment fining citizens for disclosing state secrets in media. TASS reports no plans to block foreign messengers, but compliance with requirements. TASS reports investigators opened a criminal case against an internet channel administrator for extortion and public justification of terrorism. TASS reports the military court sentenced Lithuanian Bartkevichius to 23 years in absentia for desecrating a military grave and other terror-related crimes in Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, indicating proactive legal measures against perceived threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора reports the author of a Volgograd Telegram channel was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism, demonstrating continued legal enforcement against online content. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the chief editor of the Ryazan online publication "Svoy Kolokolny" (Svoy kolokolnya) Komarov was detained in an extortion case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports a local resident was detained in Veliky Novgorod for planning to join the "Russian Volunteer Corps", a Ukrainian organization banned in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a draft law for year-round conscription has been submitted to the State Duma. This indicates RF is formalizing and potentially expanding its conscription system to sustain personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы publishes a photo message stating a draft law for year-round military conscription has been submitted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора publishes video claiming a "PLO-OPG" (presumably criminal group) was exposed in Blagoveshchensk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the arrest of Konstantin Kuranov, Minister of Transport and Road Management for Novgorod Oblast, on bribery charges. ASTRA provides photo confirmation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports the arrest of Konstantin Kuranov, Minister of Transport and Road Management of Novgorod Oblast, for bribery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports blogger Dud is заочно (in absentia) accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports Yuri Dud is заочно (in absentia) accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo message stating the State Duma has approved a law to block communications for subscribers with frozen bank accounts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes a photo message related to the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that a second suspect, producer Tatyana Lukyanova, has been identified in the case of the Baza editor-in-chief. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that the adopted law on terminating advance payments for mobile operators does not contain norms for blocking communications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS and ASTRA report the return of two medically-needing RF servicemen from Ukraine, signaling functioning POW exchange mechanisms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The law on NABU and SAP being published in the Rada's newspaper means it has legally come into force. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports pediatrician Nadezhda Buyanova, convicted for "fakes" about RF Armed Forces, is in the same penal colony as director Evgenia Berkovich. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports the US National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) was subjected to a hacker attack. This is a significant cyber incident against a critical US national security entity that RF will likely monitor and potentially leverage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): Police of Khabarovsk Krai publish video messages related to domestic law enforcement, indicating continued focus on internal stability and security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports a person died and nine were injured in a residential building fire in Moscow, which is a domestic incident but reflects on internal security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Counter-UAV Capabilities: The successful repulsion of UAV attacks in Rostov-on-Don, Millerovo, Donetsk (Rostov Oblast), and Azov district, as well as three UAVs over Tula Oblast, indicates RF's continued capability to defend against UAF drone incursions. RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight, including nine over Bryansk Oblast. The FPV drone attack in Belgorod and on Samara Oblast indicates that while RF has AD capabilities, UAF drones can still penetrate and cause damage. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights counter-drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a video showing a military aircraft, likely a fighter jet, in flight during low-light conditions. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a photo message showcasing a new anti-drone system from Rostec, capable of localized signal suppression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS and ASTRA report that RF AD forces destroyed 51 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions between 21:00 and 23:40 MSK on July 22. This is a very high claimed number. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): TASS reports 12 UAVs were destroyed overnight over Tula Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): TASS and ASTRA report 33 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions overnight, with Bryansk Oblast confirming two of these. This indicates continued UAF deep strike attempts and sustained RF AD activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Port Operations in Occupied Territories: The continued operation of Mariupol port, even if understaffed, demonstrates RF's capability to restore and utilize critical infrastructure in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Projection: The escort operation by the Steregushchiy-class corvette "Boykiy" demonstrates RF's capability to project naval power and secure logistical routes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): RF milbloggers are publishing video of Russian military training African officers with motivational speeches, with a naval vessel in the background. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • ELINT Capabilities: Colonelcassad's video claiming successful UAF liquidation via radio intercepts indicates RF possesses and utilizes effective Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) capabilities for targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): Colonelcassad publishes video of a special forces unit operating in an unspecified area, indicating advanced capabilities in targeting, including enemy positions, equipment, and drones, with high precision and effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Maneuver Capability (Tactical): TASS video showing an RF APC maneuvering in open terrain indicates continued tactical ground force mobility. Басурин о главном's report of Russian reconnaissance entering Krasnoarmeysk indicates a capability for deep infiltration by special groups. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video confirms Russian reconnaissance and DRG activity in Krasnoarmeysk. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Сливочный каприз" publishes video of a destroyed settlement with a person carrying a Russian flag, captioned "Konstantinovka - Belaya Gora," suggesting RF ground presence and tactical gains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном publishes video claiming "underground forces" are burning UAF SUVs from Kramatorsk to Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Z комитет + карта СВО publishes a tactical map of the Krasnoarmeyskoye direction, indicating areas of control and advances around #Suvorovo. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF advances in Konstantinovskoye and Poltavka directions confirm continued ground pressure and advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Рыбарь's tactical maps indicate continued RF ground operations and advances in the Konstantinovka and Pokrovsko-Mirnogradske directions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок publishes a tactical map for the Dzerzhinsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes a video showing an RF serviceman raising a Russian flag in Belaya Gora, confirming RF presence and likely consolidation of control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z publishes aerial reconnaissance footage of a rural area, indicating military activity, explosions, and damaged buildings, focused on Chaiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video claiming RF DRG activity on the road to Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes drone footage from the "Centre" group on the Krasnoarmeyskoye direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS publishes a video showing drone footage from a military operation, depicting RF soldiers planting flags in a captured or secured area, claiming the "liberation" of Komar. This directly supports the narrative of RF ground maneuver capability and territorial gains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): Colonelcassad publishes video claiming destruction of UAF 118th Separate Mechanized Brigade equipment in Novoselivka area, including a MAX-PRO armored vehicle. This confirms continued RF tactical success in targeting UAF armored vehicles and infantry. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) DeepState reports RF advanced near Oleksandrovgrad, Komar, Voskresenka, Dyliiivka, Torske, Karlivka, and Leonidiivka. This confirms multiple localized ground advances by RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Long-Term Military Budgeting: Budanov's report on Russia's plan to spend $1.1 trillion USD on rearmament by 2036 indicates a long-term, significant commitment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Hydropower (Occupied Territories): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок reports "Naftogaz" states that an important gas production facility was attacked last night with "dozens of drones." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The opening of a new hydropower station in Chechnya reinforces RF's focus on energy infrastructure development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Exercise (NEW): TASS publishes video of the Russian Navy conducting "July Storm" operational exercises, involving over 150 ships, 120 aircraft, 10 coastal missile systems, and 15,000 military personnel. This demonstrates significant naval and combined arms capability projection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.4. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Updates)

• Ukraine General: Worsening weather (heavy rains, thunderstorms) expected, impacting ground operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Significant flooding continues in Moscow. Mudslide in Kabardino-Balkaria due to severe flooding. Donbas region experiencing significant drought. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.5. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Updates)

• UAF AD: Continued high operational tempo. Germany's offer of Patriot systems and additional funding from Norway and Netherlands are critical. A Mirage 2000 crashed due to technical malfunction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF Ground Forces: Actively defending in East and South, conducting fighting withdrawals where necessary (Kamyansk). Effective FPV drone use, disrupting RF assaults near Avdiivka. Reinforcement efforts ongoing in Zaporizhzhia, including anti-drone road construction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF Security Services: SBU continues operations against Russian influence within institutions. The NABU/SAP bill's publication indicates its enactment despite protests, affecting anti-corruption oversight. Zelenskyy states NABU/SAP will continue to function. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RUF Deep Operations: Continued widespread, high-volume, multi-vector aerial attacks. Confirmed use of Kinzhal, cruise missiles with cluster munitions, Shahed UAVs, and KABs. Adaptive targeting of Ukrainian drone production facilities and UAV C2 nodes. Intensified KAB use in Donetsk and Sumy. New "Harpy" drones observed in use. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RUF Tactical Drones: Demonstrated effective use of FPV drones for precision strikes against UAF artillery, personnel, and equipment. Rostov Oblast designated as a future UAV development leader. New anti-drone systems from Rostec deployed. Fiber-optic FPV drones and robotic ground vehicles observed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RUF Information Warfare: Aggressive and adaptive, exploiting Ukrainian internal issues, foreign policy debates, and US politics. Normalization efforts for domestic audiences continue. Intense focus on internal control through legal measures and media crackdowns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RUF Ground Maneuver: Persistent offensive pressure in Eastern Ukraine, with claimed advances in several areas (Hrushevske, Novotoretske, Torske, Komar, Novoselivka, Oleksandrovgrad, Voskresenka, Dyliiivka, Karlivka, Leonidiivka) and DRG activity in contested towns. Tactical maps show RF advances in Krasnoarmeyskoye, Konstantinovskoye, and Poltavka directions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RUF Counter-UAV Capabilities: Demonstrated ability to repel numerous UAF UAV attacks over Russian territory (33 shot down overnight). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RUF Naval Projection: Conducted "July Storm" naval exercise, demonstrating significant naval and combined arms capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities (Enhanced and Sustained):

  • Strategic Deep Strike: RF continues to demonstrate CRITICAL VOLUME & DEPTH in aerial attacks, employing multi-platform coordination (Tu-95MS, MiG-31K, Shahed, tactical aviation) to hit targets nationwide. The use of X-101 with cluster munition warheads in Chernivtsi, Kinzhal hypersonic missiles against Kyiv, and FABs against UAF reserves indicates an escalation in lethality and target sets. The shift to daylight drone attacks in Sumy, and persistent KAB launches (e.g., Kramatorsk, Sumy, Dobropillia), along with the confirmed attack on gas production facilities in the Black Sea, underscore their adaptive and sustained deep strike capacity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tactical Drone Superiority: RF is rapidly scaling its drone capabilities, aiming for leadership in UAV development. Their effective use of FPV drones for precision strikes against UAF artillery (D-20 howitzer), personnel, and armored vehicles (e.g., MAX-PRO in Novoselivka) demonstrates a tactical advantage. The deployment of "Harpy" loitering munitions and fiber-optic FPV drones further indicates innovation and precision. Development of robotic ground vehicles suggests future combined arms integration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare Sophistication: RF possesses a centralized, highly adaptive information warfare apparatus capable of rapid exploitation of events, from tactical gains to internal Ukrainian political developments and US domestic politics. They effectively propagate narratives of UAF disunity, corruption, and military setbacks, while promoting a false sense of RF stability and success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Maneuver (Localized Gains): RF maintains the capability for localized ground advances, particularly in Eastern Ukraine, leveraging heavy fire support (including FABs and MLRS) and small, well-equipped assault groups. Confirmed gains around Avdiivka, Novotoretske, Hrushevske, Komar, Novoselivka, Oleksandrovgrad, Voskresenka, Dyliiivka, Torske, Karlivka, and Leonidiivka demonstrate this. They show capability for deep infiltration by DRGs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • EW Capabilities: Demonstrated capability to disrupt UAF communications (e.g., Starlink) in frontline areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Projection: Ability to conduct large-scale naval exercises ("July Storm") indicating sustained operational readiness and power projection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Counter-UAV Defense: Demonstrated capability to intercept a high volume of UAF UAVs over Russian territory, though some still penetrate. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• Intentions:

  • Degrade Ukrainian Military Capabilities: Continue to target military-industrial complex sites, airfields, logistics hubs, and military C2 nodes to reduce Ukraine's combat effectiveness and ability to sustain operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Break Ukrainian Morale: Inflict widespread civilian casualties and damage civilian infrastructure through massed aerial attacks to terrorize the population and undermine public will to resist. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Consolidate Territorial Gains: Maintain and expand ground pressure in Eastern Ukraine, aiming for incremental territorial gains, particularly around key strategic points like Pokrovsk and Avdiivka, and to secure full control of the "DNR" administrative borders. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Exploit Internal Ukrainian Divisions: Deepen internal political and social fissures within Ukraine, particularly around anti-corruption efforts and mobilization, to destabilize the government and reduce international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Control Domestic Narrative: Maintain tight control over the information space within Russia to suppress dissent, normalize the conflict, and sustain public support for the war. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Project Global Power: Demonstrate military prowess and diplomatic influence internationally, particularly through naval exercises and non-Western alliances, to counter Western efforts to isolate Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• Courses of Action (COA):

  • COA 1 (Most Likely): RF will continue its combined air-ground offensive in Eastern Ukraine, focusing on the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk axis, leveraging FABs and FPV drones to support incremental ground advances in areas such as Oleksandrovgrad, Komar, Voskresenka, Dyliiivka, Torske, Karlivka, and Leonidiivka. Concurrently, they will sustain high-volume, multi-vector missile and Shahed UAV strikes nationwide, with particular emphasis on Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi), Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kryvyi Rih, Sumy, and Kharkiv to attrit UAF AD and inflict civilian casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • COA 2 (Likely): RF will increase cross-border kinetic activity (shelling, KABs, DRG infiltration) in Sumy, Kharkiv and Chernihiv Oblasts to fix UAF forces and potentially open new, localized ground pressure points to divert UAF attention from the main Eastern axis. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • COA 3 (Less Likely, but Dangerous): RF could launch a major strategic cyberattack targeting a critical sector of Ukrainian national infrastructure (e.g., financial, energy) or NATO systems, aiming for significant disruption or to test alliance resolve. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

2.2. Recent tactical changes or adaptations

• Integrated Multi-Domain Deep Strikes: RF has demonstrated an enhanced capability for coordinated, multi-platform deep strikes, including the re-engagement of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles on Kyiv and the confirmed use of X-101s with cluster munition warheads into Western Ukraine, and FABs on UAF reserves. This indicates a more sophisticated and flexible targeting approach designed to overwhelm UAF AD and hit critical infrastructure. The increased precision of KABs targeting urban centers like Kramatorsk and Sumy also signals adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Daylight Drone Attacks: The confirmed RF drone attack on Sumy in daylight hours, hitting civilian infrastructure, marks a tactical shift from predominantly night-time UAV operations, indicating increased confidence or intent to cause immediate terror. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Targeted EW Operations: The successful disruption of Starlink communications for a UAF brigade in Krasnoarmeysk indicates RF's adaptive and precise deployment of EW capabilities against UAF C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Adaptive Drone Procurement/Production: The stated intent for Rostov Oblast to become a UAV development leader and the showcasing of advanced Chinese loitering munitions demonstrate RF's adaptive strategy to mass produce and potentially acquire new, more capable drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Information Operations as Direct Support to Kinetic Actions: RF milbloggers and state media are rapidly disseminating claimed battlefield successes and UAF losses (e.g., "Abrams" tank, "Baba Yaga" drones, UAF surrender claims, commander "liquidation"), often in near real-time, to immediately bolster morale and influence perception during active engagements. The use of POW testimonies (including new claims about "girls" and being "sent to death") is a rapidly adapting and concerning psychological operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Control as War Support: The increased internal legal measures against perceived dissent (media raids, arrests of journalists and activists), coupled with proposals for year-round conscription, signify RF's adaptive efforts to consolidate internal control and ensure sustained manpower for the long-term conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Logistics and sustainment status

• RF Logistics (Strained but Resilient): The successful UAF strike on Rovenky will likely cause a temporary (48-72 hour) disruption to RF supply lines for the southern front. However, RF has proven adaptable in dispersing assets and establishing alternate routes. Their sustained high-volume deep strike capability suggests robust long-range munition production and logistics. Localized appeals for FPV drones and Starlink from frontline units indicate persistent tactical-level supply shortfalls. The reported use of North Korean 107-mm MLRS suggests a willingness to use foreign military aid to augment their arsenal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Manpower (Persistent Mobilization, Internal Issues): The push for year-round conscription signifies RF's commitment to maintaining force levels. However, growing concerns about conscript treatment and coercion, as evidenced by Russian soldier testimonies, suggest potential morale and discipline issues that could impact long-term sustainment of ground operations. RF continues to sustain high personnel losses, as indicated by UAF reports of +970 daily, which necessitates continued mobilization efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.4. Command and control effectiveness

• RF C2 (Effective for Deep Strikes and Info Ops, Adapting to Ground): RF demonstrates effective strategic-level C2 for multi-vector deep strikes, enabling simultaneous nationwide targeting. Their information C2 is highly centralized and responsive, adapting rapidly to exploit events. On the ground, RF C2 is adapting to leverage EW capabilities (Starlink disruption) and integrate new drone types for tactical advantage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Information C2 (Centralized and Adaptive): RF information operations remain highly coordinated across state media and milbloggers, capable of rapidly disseminating narratives (e.g., POW statements, vilification of foreign figures, internal Ukrainian issues). The raids on independent media highlight a decisive C2 response to control internal information flows. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian force posture and readiness

• Air Defense (AD): UAF AD remains at HIGH operational tempo nationwide, successfully intercepting a significant volume of RF missiles and UAVs. This demonstrates strong readiness but also places immense strain on interceptor stockpiles. The commitment of new Patriot systems from Germany (conditional) and funding from Norway and Netherlands is crucial for sustainment. The crash of a Mirage 2000 due to technical malfunction represents a loss of a critical air asset. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ground Forces: UAF units are engaged in active defense and fighting withdrawals in Eastern and Southern Ukraine, facing continuous RF assaults. Tactical innovation is evident with widespread and effective FPV drone operations inflicting significant RF personnel and equipment losses. Defensive preparations, including anti-drone road construction in Zaporizhzhia, indicate proactive adaptation. The 2nd Battalion of the 101st Brigade successfully disrupted RF assault plans near Avdiivka, showcasing effective local defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Emergency Services: DSNS and local authorities are fully mobilized and responsive to widespread civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. This indicates robust civilian support and resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Domestic Production: While some domestic production (e.g., Bohdana howitzers, AI-powered drone interceptors with Denmark) is progressing, President Zelenskyy's call for increased domestic production highlights a significant existing gap and ongoing reliance on international aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Logistics & Maintenance: International aid for tank maintenance (Canada) and F-16 maintenance (Netherlands, mobile complexes) are positive for sustaining complex Western equipment. However, urgent requests for EW systems from frontline units indicate critical equipment shortfalls and vulnerabilities. Ukraine's reported need for $120 billion for next year's defense underscores the immense financial burden. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Personnel: Mobilization efforts, including convicts, are maintaining force levels. However, concerns regarding morale and treatment of mobilized personnel require careful management to ensure combat effectiveness. The recent death of a key National Police assault brigade commander, Maksym Kazban, is a leadership loss. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Command & Control: UAF C2 is adapting to the dynamic battlefield, with adjustments in military leadership (e.g., new Ground Forces commander). President Zelenskyy continues active engagement in diplomatic and internal policy matters, including complex negotiations (POW exchanges) and addressing anti-corruption reforms. The SBU remains committed to countering Russian influence and maintaining international partnerships. The enactment of the NABU/SAP law, despite controversy, represents a significant internal control measure, although public protests highlight continued concerns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Recent tactical successes or setbacks

• Successes:
  • High AD Interception Rates: UAF continues to claim high interception rates against RF missiles and UAVs, showcasing effective AD capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Effective Drone Operations: Successful UAF FPV drone strikes inflict significant RF personnel and equipment losses, demonstrating tactical ingenuity and effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Strategic Deep Strike: The successful high-precision strike on the Rovenky logistics hub is a CRITICAL success, degrading RF supply lines to the southern front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Counter-Battery Actions: Documented successful targeting of RF artillery and claimed HIMARS strikes on RF AD assets in Belgorod (requires verification) demonstrate UAF counter-battery effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH/MEDIUM)
  • Ground Robot Medevac: Innovative use of ground robots for medical evacuation enhances soldier welfare and survivability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Targeting of RF Infrastructure: Successful UAV attacks on Novocherkassk railway station and GRES represent significant deep strikes against RF critical infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Setbacks:
  • Tactical Ground Withdrawals: UAF has conducted tactical withdrawals to flanks in Kamyansk and suffered confirmed RF advances in several villages in Donetsk Oblast (Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, Voskresenka, Orikhove, Mayak, Zatyhka, Hrushevske, Novotoretske, Komar, Novoselivka, Oleksandrovgrad, Dyliiivka, Torske, Karlivka, and Leonidiivka). RF claims advances near Starytsia (Kharkiv) and dislodgement from Torske and Serebryansky forestry, indicating localized UAF ground setbacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Civilian Casualties & Infrastructure Damage: Widespread civilian fatalities and injuries (Kramatorsk, Sumy, Odesa, Novocherkassk, Kryvyi Rih) and extensive damage to civilian infrastructure highlight RF's continued kinetic impact and the challenges of full AD coverage. Sumy is partially without power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Aircraft Loss: The loss of a Mirage 2000 due to technical malfunction is a setback for UAF air capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Potential Abrams Loss: RF claims destruction of an M1A1SA Abrams tank in Kursk. If verified, this would be a significant equipment loss. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Leadership Loss: The death of Maksym Kazban, commander of the National Police assault brigade "Lyut", represents a loss of an experienced leader. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.3. Resource requirements and constraints

• Persistent AD Demand: The high volume and diversity of RF aerial attacks (missiles, hypersonics, Shaheds, KABs) places immense and continuous strain on UAF AD resources and interceptor stockpiles. Urgent and sustained resupply is critical. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• EW Shortfalls: Urgent requests for EW systems from frontline units highlight a critical vulnerability against RF tactical drones and effective RF EW capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Budgetary Gaps: Ukraine's substantial defense budget requirements for the coming year ($120 billion) underscore heavy reliance on consistent international financial and military aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Manpower Quality & Morale: While convict mobilization addresses quantity, concerns regarding morale, discipline, and treatment of new recruits could impact overall combat effectiveness and require proactive integration and welfare measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and disinformation campaigns:

• RF Propaganda (HIGH INTENSITY, Multi-faceted):
  • Terror and Demoralization: RF directly and indirectly publicizes civilian casualties from its strikes (e.g., Kramatorsk, Sumy, Odesa, Kryvyi Rih, Novocherkassk - though the latter is due to UAF attack) to terrorize the population and undermine morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Operational Success Fabrication: RF heavily promotes claimed ground advances and alleged UAF losses (e.g., "Abrams" tank, "Baba Yaga" drones, UAF surrenders, "liquidation" of UAF commanders, "liberation" of villages, destruction of UAF equipment) to project an image of overwhelming force and inevitable victory. They rapidly exploit any UAF setbacks, regardless of cause, for propaganda gain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Ukrainian Disunity: RF aggressively amplifies perceived internal Ukrainian political and social issues, such as the NABU/SAP bill controversy (including protests), alleged TCC misconduct, convict mobilization challenges, and narratives about foreign mercenaries and alleged UAF mistreatment of POWs. They are also utilizing captured UAF personnel to spread narratives of UAF commanders sending soldiers to their deaths, and promising "girls" for successful missions. This is designed to sow discord, undermine trust in Ukrainian leadership, and create a narrative of a failing state. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • US Political Influence & Anti-Western Narrative: RF actively attempts to influence Western political discourse, particularly in the US, by amplifying statements that suggest US divisions or unreliable support for Ukraine (e.g., Trump's comments on aid, US sanctions policy, US NNSA cyberattack). RF state media consistently portrays Western countries as prolonging the conflict and using Ukraine as a tool, while highlighting any perceived Western weakness or inconsistencies. They are also actively questioning US aid accountability to Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Normalization & Internal Stability: RF continues extensive efforts to normalize life in Russia and occupied territories, despite the war, through reporting on civilian events, economic plans, and infrastructure projects (e.g., "Vkousno - i tochka" burgers, new Moskvich car, hydropower plant, student family policy, etc.). This aims to project stability and divert attention from the conflict, reassuring the domestic audience of the state's control and continued development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Historical Revisionism & External Threat Justification: RF continues to vilify foreign military figures and use historical narratives (e.g., alleged Ukrainian monument desecration) to justify the conflict and reinforce the narrative of external threats to Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukrainian Counter-Propaganda (HIGH INTENSITY, Reactive and Proactive):
  • Resilience and Defiance: Ukraine emphasizes high AD interception rates, effective humanitarian responses, successful tactical engagements, and domestic production efforts to maintain public morale and demonstrate effective resistance. They highlight high RF personnel losses to underscore the effectiveness of UAF operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Atrocities: Ukraine actively highlights civilian casualties and infrastructure destruction caused by RF strikes to galvanize international support and condemn RF actions, pushing narratives of war crimes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • International Support: Regular reporting on military and financial aid from Western partners (Germany's Patriots, Canadian tank aid) underscores strong international backing, aiming to reassure both domestic and international audiences. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Corruption Efforts (Mitigation): Despite internal controversy and RF exploitation, Ukrainian authorities actively engage with international partners (G7 ambassadors) to demonstrate continued commitment to anti-corruption, aiming to mitigate concerns and maintain aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Discrediting RF: Ukraine highlights internal Russian issues (airport disruptions, flooding, internal repression, conscript mistreatment, domestic accidents like the train derailment) and counters RF disinformation (e.g., on commander deaths) to undermine RF's image of stability and capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public sentiment and morale factors:

• Ukraine:
  • Resilience and Defiance (High): Despite intense RF strikes, public sentiment remains largely resilient. Protests against the NABU/SAP bill demonstrate an active civil society and a continued belief in democratic processes and accountability, even amidst war, indicating underlying strength. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Trauma from Civilian Casualties (High): Confirmed civilian fatalities and widespread infrastructure damage cause significant public trauma, leading to high demand for emergency and humanitarian services. This places a psychological burden on the population. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mobilization Concerns (Medium): Reports of violent TCC detentions and challenges with convict integration indicate some public apprehension and friction regarding mobilization efforts, requiring careful management to prevent wider demoralization. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Trust in Institutions (Mixed): Public protests and international alarm over the NABU/SAP bill suggest mixed trust in government actions regarding anti-corruption reforms, indicating a need for greater transparency and accountability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pride in Military (High): Consistent positive media coverage of UAF tactical successes, innovative capabilities, and international support boosts public morale and pride in the armed forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian Federation (RF):
  • Perceived Victory/Resilience (High): RF state media and milbloggers successfully cultivate a narrative of military success, resilience against Ukrainian attacks, and internal stability, which bolsters domestic public morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Public Concern over Drone Attacks (Medium): Despite official claims of high interception rates, repeated UAV attacks on Moscow and other RF cities (Rostov, Samara, Novocherkassk, Nizhny Novgorod) cause public anxiety and localized disruptions (e.g., airport delays, infrastructure damage, and injuries in Novocherkassk). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Stability vs. Repression (Mixed): While RF projects internal stability, numerous arrests, media crackdowns, and a push for year-round conscription indicate ongoing repression, likely creating an undercurrent of fear and self-censorship despite the lack of overt widespread protest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Economic Strain (Low-Medium): Dependence on volunteer aid for military equipment and some domestic economic impacts (e.g., Moscow transport fees, drought in Donbas) suggest minor economic strains, although largely offset by state propaganda promoting stability. The potential interest rate cut will be framed positively. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Soldier Welfare (Mixed): While the state claims support for military personnel, the need for civilian fundraising for basic equipment and testimonies of poor treatment suggest gaps in soldier welfare that could impact morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.3. International support and diplomatic developments:

• For Ukraine:
  • Continued Military Aid (High): Sustained and substantial military support from Western partners (Germany's Patriot offer, Netherlands' AD and F-16 maintenance, Canadian tank aid, British air defense assets) remains a critical factor in Ukraine's defense. Romania's move to form a voluntary contract army indicates a proactive regional measure among NATO allies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Engagement (High): President Zelenskyy's emphasis on negotiations and high-level visits (Israeli FM to Kyiv) indicates active diplomatic efforts for peace and continued international partnerships. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Financial Support (High): Significant financial commitments and stated future needs (Norway, NATO, overall budget) underscore a clear and ongoing international financial commitment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Concerns over Corruption Reform (High): International partners, particularly G7 Ambassadors and the EU, remain highly concerned about Ukraine's anti-corruption reforms (NABU/SAP bill). This scrutiny could impact future aid if not addressed transparently and effectively. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • International Legal Accountability: Ukraine continues to push for legal frameworks to hold Russia accountable for war crimes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • EU Frozen Assets: EU discussions on Russian frozen assets represent a potential future source of significant funding for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• For Russian Federation (RF):
  • Limited Diplomatic Engagement (Medium): Upcoming negotiations with Ukraine and Trump's stated openness to meet Putin indicate potential avenues for future diplomatic engagement. The return of RF POWs signifies a functioning exchange channel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Western Propaganda (High): RF MFA consistently frames Western countries as prolonging the conflict and using Ukraine as a tool, amplifying perceived Western weaknesses (e.g., US political divisions, EU sanctions impact). They also promote narratives of US aid being mishandled by Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sanctions Impact (Medium): While UK sanctions on RF's "shadow fleet" and reported LNG export reductions indicate ongoing pressure, RF has demonstrated adaptability in maintaining some port operations and legal challenges to sanctions (Gazprom shares). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Strengthening Non-Western Alliances (High): The trilateral meeting with Iran and China on nuclear issues signifies deepening strategic alliances outside the Western sphere. The video of RF training African officers is a projection of influence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Exploiting US Political Landscape: RF actively uses statements by US political figures (e.g., Trump's comments on aid accountability, his "coup" accusation against Obama, US House Speaker on sanctions) to sow doubt about US policy and support for Ukraine, and to highlight perceived US internal instability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cyber Influence Operations: The reported cyberattack on the US NNSA could be leveraged by RF to imply US vulnerabilities or its own advanced cyber capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• Sustained and Adaptive Deep Strike Campaign: RF will continue high-volume, multi-vector deep strikes across Ukraine, integrating strategic missiles (cruise, ballistic, hypersonic), Shahed UAVs (now more frequent daylight use), and KABs. Primary targets will remain military-industrial complex enterprises, military airfield infrastructure, and energy infrastructure, with continued disregard for civilian casualties. Intensified use of KABs is expected, particularly against Eastern and Southern front-line towns and cities (e.g., Kramatorsk, Sumy, Odesa, Kryvyi Rih) to support ground advances and demoralize the population. This will include targeted strikes on UAF C2 nodes and domestic drone production facilities. Expect continued saturation attacks on Kyiv and other major cities, now including specific threats for Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi district), Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and particularly Kryvyi Rih. RF will continue to attempt to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses through sheer volume and diverse attack vectors, while also focusing on enhanced ISR (e.g., Flexrotor) and potentially integrating more advanced loitering munitions (e.g., Chinese "FeiLong" series). New targets within RF (e.g., Novocherkassk railway station and GRES, Nizhny Novgorod industrial facilities) will likely see increased RF AD and counter-drone measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Persistent Ground Pressure in Eastern Ukraine: RF will maintain offensive pressure in Eastern Ukraine, particularly on the Donetsk axes (Avdiivka, Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Lyman, Sieversk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka), and along the Kharkiv direction (Kupyansk, Starytsia). They will seek to exploit any tactical gains (e.g., around Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Novotoretske, Hrushevske, Kamyansk, Krasnoarmeyskoye direction, Konstantinovskoye, Poltavka, Dzerzhinsk direction, Torske, Komar, Novoselivka, Oleksandrovgrad, Voskresenka, Dyliiivka, Karlivka, and Leonidiivka) and potentially commit additional reserves if breakthroughs are achieved. DRG activity, particularly in Pokrovsk and Krasnoarmeysk, will intensify, as indicated by recent reports. The increasing pace of offensive operations suggests RF will attempt to sustain or accelerate this tempo, with continued active ground operations by airborne units in contested areas like Chasiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Increased Cross-Border Kinetic Activity (Sumy/Kharkiv/Chernihiv): Given the increased reconnaissance UAV activity (including new reports in Chernihiv Oblast and near Nizhyn) and recent KAB strikes, RF will likely intensify shelling and drone attacks on border communities in Sumy, Kharkiv, and now potentially Chernihiv Oblasts. There is a low-to-medium likelihood of limited cross-border ground assaults aimed at fixing UAF forces or conducting raids. The introduction of air danger in Lipetsk Oblast (including Yelets district) suggests RF is preparing for or responding to UAF deep operations in the border regions, which could impact RF offensive planning. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Aggressive and Adaptive Information Operations: RF will continue to aggressively use information operations to demoralize Ukrainian society, exploit internal Ukrainian political divisions (e.g., NABU/SAP controversy, including public protests, TCC practices, convict mobilization challenges, foreign mercenary narratives, disinformation regarding UAF command deaths, Ukrainian monument desecration claims, Western incomprehension of Russia's actions, Zelenskyy's perceived betrayal over NABU/SAP, UAF sending invalids to fight, POW mistreatment narratives, new POW "promises of girls" narrative, mercenary contract termination narrative, new POW "sent to deaths for passage" narrative), and portray Russia as resilient and victorious for its domestic audience. This will include leveraging statements from captured UAF personnel (including new, more aggressive narratives), amplifying claims of UAF corruption/disunity, and promoting narratives of RF internal stability and development (e.g., student family policy). They will continue to attempt to influence Western political discourse, particularly in the US, by amplifying favorable statements or creating misleading narratives around US foreign policy debates (e.g., Trump's statements on US aid accountability, US sanctions policy, US NNSA cyberattack). RF will also continue efforts to project its military influence internationally, as seen with training African officers and diplomatic engagement on sanctions (China). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Continued Focus on Internal Control and Mobilization: The RF will continue to implement and enforce strict internal security measures, including legal actions against perceived dissidents (e.g., pediatrician Buyanova), media crackdowns, and measures to control information flow within Russia. The push for year-round conscription will proceed, likely with official messaging to alleviate public concerns about increased numbers. They will continue to develop and implement new infrastructure projects to project normalcy and progress, and conduct large-scale naval exercises to project military strength and readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Targeting of Shadow Networks in Occupied Territories: RF will likely initiate internal security or economic operations against "shadow" companies identified by Ukrainian hacker groups (InformNapalm, 256 CyberStorm) in occupied territories to consolidate economic control and eliminate perceived threats to their occupation regime. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Continued POW Exchanges: The successful return of medically-needing RF servicemen suggests that negotiations for prisoner exchanges are ongoing and will likely continue. President Zelenskyy's stated expectation for prisoner exchanges indicates active high-level engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Economic Adjustments: RF Central Bank is likely to proceed with the planned interest rate cut, which will be framed internally as a positive economic development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• Massed Ground Offensive (New Axis/Reinforced East/North): RF could launch a new, large-scale ground offensive on a less defended axis (e.g., from Belarus towards Western Ukraine) or significantly reinforce and expand offensive operations in the Sumy/Kharkiv/Chernihiv regions, aiming to fix UAF forces and draw resources away from the primary Eastern and Southern fronts. This could be coupled with a breakthrough and rapid exploitation around Pokrovsk or Avdiivka, leading to a significant operational encirclement of UAF forces. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Targeted Destruction of Western Aid Infrastructure: RF could directly target critical Western military aid and logistics infrastructure within Ukraine (e.g., railway hubs, warehouses, repair facilities), including those closer to the Polish border, using sustained hypersonic or cruise missile attacks. This would severely impede UAF resupply and readiness. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Systemic Cyberattack on Ukrainian Infrastructure: RF could launch a widespread, coordinated cyberattack against Ukraine's critical civilian and military infrastructure (e.g., energy grid, financial systems, military C2 networks), aiming to cause systemic disruption and undermine national resilience. The reported cyberattack on the US NNSA indicates a high-level cyber capability that could be redirected. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Escalated Hybrid Operations in Moldova/Baltics: RF could significantly escalate hybrid operations against Moldova (potentially leveraging Transnistria and Gagauzia's political developments) or the Baltic States, aiming to test NATO's Article 5 or create major diversionary pressure, possibly involving widespread cyberattacks, intense disinformation campaigns, or even limited incursions by proxy forces. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)

5.3. Timeline estimates and decision points

• Next 24-48 Hours (Immediate Threat):
  • Continued High-Volume RF Aerial Strikes: Expect RF to maintain or increase the tempo of missile (cruise, ballistic, hypersonic) and UAV (Shahed, "Harpy") attacks nationwide, particularly targeting strategic targets (military-industrial complex, airfields, energy) and large urban centers. This includes continued KAB use on the front lines. Ukrainian AD will remain at high alert. Decision Point: UAF must assess AD resource consumption vs. interception rates and prioritize asset allocation. Consider proactive dispersal of key assets.
  • Intensified Ground Pressure in Eastern Ukraine: RF will continue to press advances in Donetsk Oblast, particularly around Avdiivka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar, seeking further tactical gains. Renewed tactical aviation activity in the eastern direction suggests direct air support for ground operations and continued aviation munitions use. Decision Point: UAF commands must evaluate the need for immediate tactical reinforcements or controlled withdrawals to consolidate defensive lines and preserve combat power, especially in the Avdiivka area. Prioritize anti-drone measures and EW deployment in these sectors.
  • Cross-Border Kinetic Activity: Expect continued RF shelling and reconnaissance UAV activity along the Sumy, Kharkiv and Chernihiv borders, as evidenced by continued "Anvar" unit operations. Small-scale cross-border incursions by RF DRGs remain a possibility. Decision Point: Border Security Forces to maintain heightened vigilance and interdiction efforts against DRG infiltration. Increase localized EW capabilities.
  • Sustained RF Information Operations: Expect RF to exploit any real or perceived Ukrainian weaknesses, especially around the NABU/SAP controversy and mobilization efforts, and continue to amplify successes and normalize the conflict for their domestic audience. Decision Point: UAF/Ukrainian government must maintain proactive, transparent, and consistent communication to counter RF narratives and sustain public trust and international support. Immediately address any emerging disinformation.
  • Prisoner Exchange: Zelenskyy's statement suggests a prisoner exchange may occur within the next 24 hours. Decision Point: Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War to finalize logistics and preparations for reception and medical care of returning personnel. Ensure psychological support for returning POWs given RF's exploitation of them.
• Next 72-96 Hours (Short-Term Operational Impact):
  • Logistical Disruption in Southern RF Front: The Rovenky strike will likely begin to impact RF logistical throughput to the southern front, potentially leading to reduced artillery fire or slower ground advances in specific sectors as RF establishes alternate routes and disperses assets. Decision Point: UAF should identify and exploit any resulting windows of opportunity for localized counter-offensives or consolidation of defensive positions in the Southern direction. Prioritize ISR to confirm actual logistical impact.
  • RF Response to Novocherkassk Strikes: RF will likely increase AD and counter-drone measures around critical infrastructure and logistics nodes in Rostov Oblast and other deep rear areas to mitigate future UAF deep strikes. This may include stricter airspace restrictions or more aggressive EW. Decision Point: UAF intelligence must assess RF's adaptive AD and EW responses to maintain effectiveness of deep strike operations.
  • Internal RF Developments: The Central Bank's interest rate decision will impact domestic economic sentiment. The progress of the year-round conscription bill will be closely monitored for public reaction and potential implementation challenges. Decision Point: None for UAF directly, but monitor for signs of internal instability that could impact RF military cohesion.

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//END REPORT//