Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 230700Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats lifted, though localized Shahed UAV threats persist for Lviv Oblast, Southern Ukraine, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi districts, also Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, now Synelnykivskyi district), and Kharkiv Oblast. Civilian casualties confirmed (14 fatalities, multiple injured) across Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Chernivtsi, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Sloviansk, Kherson, and Kramatorsk. Rescue and emergency services are actively engaged. Civilian infrastructure damage confirmed in Odesa due to RF UAV attack. Rocket danger for Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kryvyi Rih (UPDATE): Multiple reports of explosions due to mass Shahed UAV attack. Fires confirmed by Mayor, now liquidated, no casualties reported. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Northern Ukraine (Kyiv Oblast): Continued Air Defense (AD) engagement against Shahed UAVs over Kyiv. Kinetic impacts on residential and commercial buildings, and a metro entrance. One fatality and nine injuries reported. Firefighters engaged; kindergarten fire confirmed. Over fifteen direct hits on various objects overnight. RF milblogger Colonelcassad claims three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, with video showing multiple explosions and fires, and claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility. New ballistic missile threat declared for Kyiv, now lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports a localized internal security incident involving a shooting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kyiv City: RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU report a crane collapsed on Hlybochytska Street due to strong winds/storm, affecting civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports 5 individuals hospitalized due to bad weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Protest observed regarding legislation limiting NABU/SAP powers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Eastern Ukraine: Initial cruise missile group detected over Kharkiv Oblast, moving towards Poltava Oblast. Kharkiv's Kyivskyi district hit by 12 UAV strikes overnight. RF milblogger "Воин DV" claims bomber strikes on UAF forward positions in Yanvarskyi supporting 36th Army advance. New group of RF UAVs reported from Luhansk Oblast moving towards Kharkiv Oblast. Kharkiv Oblast governor confirms strikes on Kharkiv city and 10 settlements. DeepState reports RF advances in Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, and near three other villages in Donetsk Oblast. MoD Russia video claims liberation of Popov Yar. RF milbloggers claim a new RF front opened in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian military operations confirmed near Belaya Gora, Donetsk, with claims of capturing foreign weapons. Colonelcassad shares map showing continued positional changes on the front line. UAF National Guard "Khartia" brigade drone operators claimed destruction of nearly a platoon of Russian occupiers in Kharkiv Oblast. A tractor driver was blown up by a mine in Balakliia community, Kharkiv Oblast. At least 54 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast affected by enemy strikes over the past week. STERNENKO claims Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment holding back Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast. Liveuamap Source reports recent clashes at Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Gulyaypole, and Kherson directions. Ukrainian forces repelled 23 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. FPV drone strike on Russian UAZ-452 ('Bukhanka') vehicle confirmed. Perovske, Zolochiv community, Kharkiv Oblast, shelled. DeepState reports liquidation of RF sabotage groups in Pokrovsk. RF milbloggers claim RF DRG activity in Pokrovsk, with video suggesting an ambush on a UAF vehicle. Threat of aviation munitions for Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. Clashes confirmed yesterday in Toretsk, Sieversk, Lyman, Novopavlivka, Kramatorsk, Kupyansk, Orikhiv, South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), and Pokrovsk directions. Ukrainian forces repelled 22 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. DeepState analysis indicates RF army occupied Hrushevske and advanced near Voskresenka, Orikhove, Mayak and Zatyhka (formerly Suvorove) in Donetsk Oblast. TASS and MoD Russia claim RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske in DNR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: TASS reports RF forces advanced near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast, dislodging UAF units from several positions. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports renewed activity in Kharkiv direction, with video showing drone-guided strikes on targets, indicating continued RF pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy UAVs in Eastern Kharkiv Oblast continuing movement south. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports the same information, confirming continued southward movement of enemy drones in Eastern Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction and warns of threat of aviation munitions for frontline oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Popov Yar, Donetsk Oblast: TASS reports a group of Ukrainian servicemen surrendered in Popov Yar, DNR. This claim, if verified, indicates localized UAF tactical setbacks. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • South-Donetsk Direction: Colonelcassad publishes video claiming successful destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit by 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, "Vostok" Grouping. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast: ASTRA, RBC-Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 report a direct RF KAB strike on a residential building, resulting in the confirmed death of a 10-year-old child and 7 injured. New information reports 12 injured after aviation strikes on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sloviansk, Donetsk Oblast: Олексій Білошицький reports Russian attack on Sloviansk. Paramedics from the "Predator" brigade assisted an 81-year-old woman. This confirms continued RF strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk Oblast: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade drone operators created a "kill zone," destroying multiple enemy vehicles and personnel with FPV drones. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video of 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade using FPV drones to destroy two pieces of RF mechanized equipment during an attempted assault. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes a video showing Ukrainian drone operators (427th Separate Unmanned Systems Regiment "Rarog") using "fireball" bombs to destroy houses and premises used by the enemy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast: RBC-Ukraine provides photo/video on RF drone and KAB attacks, highlighting continued RF kinetic impacts on civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Belgorod Oblast (RF): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video claiming HIMARS strikes on an RF S-300 air defense battery, a "Nebo-M" radar, and a 5H66M "Big Bird" radar. This, if verified, is a significant UAF success. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) TASS reports three injured, including two minors, in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA also reports three injured, including two teenagers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a video of an aerial attack on a convoy of vehicles, likely military trucks, suggesting UAF counter-battery or deep strike effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports a civilian was injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Velyka Novosilka - Shevchenko: "Сливочный каприз" publishes photo messages likely indicating continued engagements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Сливочный каприз" publishes video of a destroyed settlement with a person carrying a Russian flag, captioned "Konstantinovka - Belaya Gora," indicating active combat and likely RF advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnolimanskoye Direction: "Два майора" publishes a video showing RF unit thanking for humanitarian aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar: Colonelcassad provides video footage claiming the destruction of a UAF UAV command post on the outskirts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z publishes aerial reconnaissance footage of a rural area, indicating military activity, explosions, and damaged buildings, focused on Chaiv Yar, suggesting active ground operations by RF airborne units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnoarmeysk direction: MoD Russia video claims destruction of a UAF UAV control post. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports RF forces are forming a wide encirclement of Krasnoarmeysk in DNR after liberating Novotoretske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV reports RF forces active, claiming to disable Starlink communications for 25th Airborne Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publish videos claiming Russian reconnaissance and DRG activity, with video suggesting an ambush on a UAF vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes photo messages claiming active work by RF operators against enemy equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sloviansk/Kramatorsk: Colonelcassad publishes video claiming "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk, with a large plume of dark smoke. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Alexandrovgrad: Воин DV publishes drone footage claiming destruction of armored vehicles and personnel by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 5th Guards Tank Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novotoretske, DNR: TASS, MoD Russia, Операция Z, and Kotsnews all claim RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnoarmeysk Direction: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes video claiming the downing of a heavy "Baba Yaga" drone by AIRNOMADS operators. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Torskoye (UPDATE): Оперативний ЗСУ publishes drone video claiming to show a "military crime" by RF forces targeting a civilian on a bicycle, followed by artillery strikes, with claims of multiple enemy neutralizations. DeepState publishes video alleging RF forces shot a local resident on a bicycle. RF sources now claim Russian assault units have dislodged Ukrainian forces from Torske (DNR) and positions in the Serebryansky forestry. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Orlivka, Sumy Oblast: Colonelcassad claims use of "Harpy" drones by RF UAV units to destroy temporary deployment points and vehicles of the UAF 104th Territorial Defense Brigade near Orlivka. Video shows residential buildings impacted by explosions and fires. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Temirovka, Zaporizhzhia Region: MoD Russia claims Uragan MLRS hit AFU positions near Temirovka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pokrovsk (Donetsk Oblast): Рыбарь channel publishes a photo and video indicating "Russian infantry in Pokrovsk." Воин DV publishes video claiming to show drone footage of an AFU armored vehicle being engaged by AIRNOMADS. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны publish video claiming fierce battles, increased pace of advance, and destruction of enemy equipment and personnel. Операция Z reports that "Otvazhnye" (brave ones) stormed a UAF strongpoint. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video claiming RF DRG activity on the road. Colonelcassad publishes drone footage from the "Centre" group showing explosions targeting enemy vehicles (SUV, tank) and positions (BABA-YAGA drone, STARLINK terminal). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast, Izium: Colonelcassad publishes video showing residents of Izium visually monitoring a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike on a Ukrainian "occupation formation" object. Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes video claiming a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike on a target. Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports RF forces struck military warehouses this morning (22 JUL 25). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast, Oskil: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes drone footage showing the Khartia brigade's engagement against enemy personnel and a fuel depot. RF flags visible on targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk Oblast (New KAB Launches): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports repeated KAB launches. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv/Sumy Border (New KAB Launches): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kamyansk (New): Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Defense Forces have withdrawn to the flanks and are holding Kamyansk under fire control. Военкор Котенок posts a map of the Dnipropetrovsk direction, indicating potential RF focus. Военкор Котенок posts a map of the Druzhkivka direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video showing a severely damaged apartment building, likely in Avdiivka, with a person in tactical gear, indicating ongoing conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Konstantinovka Direction: Z комитет + карта СВО publishes a tactical map indicating RF advances and control zones as of 22 JUL 25. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poltavka Direction: Z комитет + карта СВО publishes a tactical map indicating RF advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dzerzhinsk Direction: Военкор Котенок publishes a tactical map indicating activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Belaya Gora, Donetsk Oblast (New Flag): Colonelcassad publishes a video showing an RF serviceman raising a Russian flag, confirming RF presence and likely consolidation of control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Avdiivka Axis (UPDATE): Оперативний ЗСУ reports on drone footage showing UAF 2nd Battalion of the 101st Brigade disrupting RF assault plans. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kursk Oblast (RF): Colonelcassad publishes multiple photo messages showing a destroyed American M1A1SA Abrams tank. This claim, if verified, represents a significant UAF loss. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • RF Deep Strike (NEW): Воин DV publishes thermal/night vision drone footage showing an explosion engulfing a lead vehicle in a convoy on a dirt road. This suggests an RF drone strike against UAF personnel and/or vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Central Ukraine: Missile group (up to 10) towards Myrhorod district, then passing Poltava towards Kremenсhuk. New missile group from Sumy Oblast also moved towards Poltava Oblast. Another group from Cherkasy Oblast diverted, heading westward into Vinnytsia Oblast. Kryvyi Rih reports "situation controlled." Aftermath of attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast confirmed. TASS claims RF forces used FABs against UAF reserve positions in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovets Oblast. New threat of strike UAVs for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi districts). UAV reported on Poltava Oblast, heading southwest. Threat of enemy strike UAVs in Zolotoniskyi and Cherkaskyi districts of Cherkasy Oblast. One fatality in Vinnytsia from 16 July strike. Explosions in Kropyvnytskyi and Kryvyi Rih amid ballistic missile threat. Kirovohrad Oblast attacked by ballistic missiles. Nikopol district attacked by artillery, MLRS "Grad," and FPV drones. НгП раZVедка reports on aftermath of strike on preparatory camp in Kropyvnytskyi. UAV threat reported in Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, heading northwest. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), with possible AD activity. Missile danger for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi district) and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: TASS claims a UK-trained UAF unit was destroyed. This is an unverified RF claim. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports over two dozen attacks in Nikopol district throughout the day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports an infrastructure object damaged due to a drone hit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district) - threat of enemy strike UAVs! (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes photos regarding a visit from Myroslav Biletskyi, Head of Zakarpattia Oblast Military Administration, indicating inter-regional cooperation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ballistic Missile Threat: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports a threat of ballistic missile use from the East. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports ballistic missile threat from Northeast (Now lifted). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports ballistic threat from East. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports high-speed target from Kursk Oblast heading southwest in Sumy Oblast. Ballistic missile threat lifted for all areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poltava Oblast: The Office of the Prosecutor General reports a domestic law enforcement event regarding counterfeit perfumes/cosmetics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Enemy UAVs from Sumy Oblast are entering northeastern Poltava Oblast, heading southwest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) claims a powerful strike on a UAF training ground. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Western Ukraine: Cruise missiles confirmed from Vinnytsia Oblast to Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Main group entered Ternopil Oblast, Chernivtsi Oblast (AD engaging, 4 fatalities confirmed), and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast (explosions, damage, casualties). Kinzhal hypersonic missile launched from MiG-31K tracked towards Starokostiantyniv, then Ternopil/Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts, with confirmed explosions and casualties. Mayor of Ivano-Frankivsk confirmed infrastructure damage. Three Shahed UAVs approaching Ivano-Frankivsk reported intercepted. Damage to kindergarten and university in Lviv. Damaged residential buildings (20 private houses) in Kamianets-Podilskyi district, Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Odesa Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a Shahed UAV recovered from the shore. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports severe flooding due to heavy rain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volyn Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports a localized internal security incident involving a shooting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports a French Mirage 2000 fighter jet crashed due to technical malfunction; pilot ejected successfully with stable condition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns reports an F-16 was shot down in Rivne Oblast; pilot ejected. This is a conflicting claim with the Mirage crash. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - contradictory) UAF Air Force confirms Mirage 2000 crash due to technical malfunction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes video claiming a Ukrainian Mirage 2000 fighter jet crashed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zelenskiy / Official has confirmed the downed Mirage and stated the pilot ejected safely, adding that it was not caused by Russian action. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Romania (NEW): RBC-Ukraine reports Romania is forming a voluntary contract army. This indicates a proactive measure by a NATO member on Ukraine's border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Southern Ukraine: New Shahed UAVs detected in Black Sea, heading towards Pivdenne/Koblevo (8 inbound). RF strike on Vasylivskyi district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulted in 2 fatalities, 1 wounded. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reports 14 UAVs shot down (previously 7). Missile threat active for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF 44th Artillery Brigade successfully targeted an RF 2A65 Msta-B. Colonelcassad claims missile strike on Ukrainian gas platform in Black Sea. TASS reports parts of a downed UAF UAV fell on a kindergarten and Ministry of Emergency Situations in Berdyansk. Launches of KABs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast confirmed. UAV threat for Kherson, Zaporizhzhia (Nikopolskyi district), and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts from the south. 4 new Shahed UAVs from Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Pavlohrad. New groups of Shahed UAVs from Black Sea heading towards Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts. Odesa Oblast AD engaged 10 Shahed UAVs over Black Sea; 12 Shahed UAVs confirmed approaching Odesa from the sea. Explosions heard in Odesa. CONFIRMED CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE IN ODESA DUE TO RF UAV ATTACK, with photo evidence of destroyed vehicles, debris, and extensive damage. RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU further confirm extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Odesa. One fatality in Odesa due to the attack (confirmed by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS), and one injured (STERNENKO). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Enemy UAVs from western Kherson Oblast are heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports 7 UAVs flying towards/through Shyroke/Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports another 7 UAVs in Beryslav district, heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAVs from the west inbound to Kryvyi Rih; take shelter. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Олександр Вілкул reports explosions in Kryvyi Rih due to mass Shahed attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Суспільне reports explosions in Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports the 7 UAVs heading to Kryvyi Rih were neutralized. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) One RF Shahed UAV reported near Posad-Pokrovske (Kherson Oblast), heading north. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson Oblast: Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 4 Russian army assaults. TASS reports on Russian Group "Dnepr" UAV calculation with FPV drones destroying a Ukrainian D-20 howitzer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок claims destruction of a Ukrainian boat with personnel using a fiber-optic FPV drone. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes video showing a Grad MLRS crew eliminating enemy targets on the right bank of Dnepr river. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes video claiming destruction of a UAV command post for the 34th Separate Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Antonivka, Kherson Oblast, using a LMUR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mariupol: TASS reports that the Mariupol port is operating with sufficient staff for current workload. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vasylivskyi District, Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has posted photo messages showing a wounded man from an "enemy attack." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson: ASTRA reports one woman injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Southern Direction: Сили оборони Півдня України reports continued RF aviation strikes, FPV drone use, and Shahed UAV attacks on frontline settlements and UAF positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Ballistic missile threat alert issued. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues immediate alert. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports air raid alert lifted. Военкор Котенок publishes a tactical map for the Zaporizhzhia direction (right flank). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: Air Force reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV detected. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAV on Mykolaiv Oblast, course north. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Shkolny Airfield, Odesa Oblast: Военкор Котенок claims Ukrainian AD targeted high-rise buildings and local parking during "Geranium" attack, an RF attempt to shift blame. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Nova Kakhovka: WarGonzo reports two fatalities from a drone strike on a minibus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Gas Facilities (Black Sea): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок reports "Naftogaz" states that an important gas production facility was attacked last night with "dozens of drones." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson Direction: Два майора publishes video indicating drone operations, signal loss/interference and possible impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vessel Destruction: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes video showing a burning naval vessel, likely after an engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Temporary flight restrictions at Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky airports have been lifted. Restrictions also lifted at Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, and Kaluga airports. RF milbloggers gloat about Kyiv impacts. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claims 18 UAVs shot down over Moscow; RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight (previously 23 over Moscow, and a total of 74 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight). Falling UAV debris on railway station in Rostov Oblast delayed over 50 passenger trains. Fire at Kamianolomni railway station, Rostov Oblast confirmed. Belgorod governor reports 2 civilian injuries from UAF UAV attack. Flooding reported in Moscow streets. Fires reported in Rostov and Moscow oblasts after UAV hits. TASS reports a Moldovan national detained in Ryazan confessed to transmitting data on RF Armed Forces to Kyiv. TASS reports a man detained in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD facilities. TASS reports RF MoD claims 14 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kaluga, Bryansk, Tula, and Oryol Oblasts. Crimean Bridge queue reached 2000 vehicles. TASS reports foreigners can enter RF without RuID registration. TASS reports the new Moskvich-8 car is on sale for 2.98 million rubles. TASS reports the Sheremetyevo airport is organizing recreation zones for passengers. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. ASTRA reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Gennady Starunov, a Russian "Teacher of the Year 2022," lecturer from Moscow school #1164, and author of Telegram channel "Frontline Notes," was liquidated in Ukraine. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Temporary flight restrictions are introduced in Kaluga airport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Restrictions on receiving and sending aircraft introduced at Nizhny Novgorod airport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov-on-Don: TASS reports a UAV attack was repelled in Rostov-on-Don, Millerovo, Donetsk (Rostov Oblast), and Azov district, with no casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ and ASTRA report UAV attacks on Novocherkassk railway station and Novocherkassk GRES (thermal power plant). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) НгП раZVедка reports on UAV attack on Novocherkassk GRES. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the building of "Rosstelecom" was also damaged in Novocherkassk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA confirms a railway crossing closure and traffic jam in Novocherkassk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tula Oblast: TASS reports RF air defense destroyed three Ukrainian UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): TASS reports 12 UAVs were destroyed overnight over Tula Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov Oblast UAV Development: TASS reports plans to make Rostov Oblast a leader in UAV development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novosibirsk: TASS reports the detention of a young man for hacking information resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Samara Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports a drone attack on Samara Oblast, RF. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) ASTRA provides video confirming the Novosuybyshevsk oil refinery fire after a UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Bryansk Oblast: Брянская область. Губернатор reports "nine more" Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed overnight. TASS reports that searches are being conducted at the home of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, now confirmed detained on charges of abuse of power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) AV БогомаZ reports that 28 Ukrainian UAVs were detected and destroyed. This is a significant increase in claimed UAV interceptions for this region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow: TASS reports the death of Irina Podnosova, the Chairman of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation. TASS reports Putin expressed condolences. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы posts a video showing water puddles and cleaning operations inside a public building. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ТАСС publishes videos showing flooded metro tracks at "Bagrationovskaya" and "Kuntsevskaya" stations. Another video shows a flooded train station/underpass. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes multiple videos showing severe urban flooding. ASTRA publishes videos showing severe urban flooding. Moscow is planning to build a new highway. Новости Москвы reports that from tomorrow, electric car charging will no longer be free. Военкор Котенок reports discussing the important topic of enemy UAV strikes on Moscow. STERNENKO provides a list of RF regions with "drone danger" (Smolensk, Kaluga, Lipetsk, Moscow, Penza, Oryol, Tambov, Rostov Oblasts, and Republic of Mordovia). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kabardino-Balkaria: ASTRA and Operatyvnyi ZSU report an emergency situation declared due to a mudslide and damaged bridge. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow Development: Новости Москвы reports plans for over 800 sports and 1500 children's playgrounds to be built this year. Новости Москвы also reports that scientists have proven a four-day work week without salary reduction improves employee well-being. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы posts a video showing heavy rain and flooded streets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Crimea: TASS reports three individuals were detained for desecrating a monument. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tyumen: "Операция Z" reports the detention of a migrant for threatening a teenager. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Law Enforcement: TASS reports billionaire Matsotsky appealed his in absentia arrest in a bribery case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the chief editor of the Ryazan online publication "Svoy Kolokolny" (Svoy kolokolnya) Komarov was detained in an extortion case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports a local resident was detained in Veliky Novgorod for planning to join the "Russian Volunteer Corps", a Ukrainian organization banned in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • FSB Activity: FSB reports it thwarted activities of three suspects aiding Ukrainian special services. Colonelcassad confirms three accomplices detained for preparing terrorist attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow: ASTRA reports security forces detained Dmitry Kisiev, head of the headquarters of former presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports that journalist Yuri Dud, classified as a "foreign agent" in Russia, has been заочно (in absentia) arrested for two months. TASS confirms this arrest and states he is on an international wanted list. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports blogger Dud is заочно accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports Yuri Dud is заочно accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF MoD Corruption: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports new criminal cases against former Deputy Minister of Defense Pavel Popov for multi-million ruble bribes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novorossiysk: TASS reports over 20 apartments damaged by a domestic gas explosion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • St. Petersburg: ASTRA and Север.Реалии report two foreign nationals detained near FSB building for dancing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Foreign Vessel Access: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Putin has toughened rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poland General's Death: TASS, Colonelcassad, and Alex Parker Returns report the death of Polish General Waldemar Skrzypczak. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a photo message reporting the death of former Polish Land Forces commander Waldemar Skrzypczak, highlighting his calls to attack Belarus and Kaliningrad Oblast. This is a clear RF information operation aiming to vilify a deceased foreign military figure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF MFA Statements: TASS reports RF MFA states RF significantly expanded list of EU representatives and EU institutions banned from entering Russia. TASS also reports "Western countries continue to use Ukraine as a tool to wage war against Russia." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Russia regrets the US withdrawal from UNESCO, anticipating political and financial consequences. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Media Raids: TASS, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, and Север.Реалии report police and OMON conducted searches at "Baza" publication's editorial office and the editor-in-chief's apartment. TASS also provides video showing the situation at the Baza office. Операция Z reports a criminal case for exceeding authority has been opened against police officers in Moscow who leaked information. TASS reports investigators detained not only the editor-in-chief of Baza, Trifonova, but also several other employees for questioning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes video claiming police officers who leaked information to Baza have been detained, along with five Baza employees including the editor-in-chief. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the chief editor of Telegram channel Baza, Gleb Trifonov, and his colleague were detained in Moscow for bribery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that a second suspect, producer Tatyana Lukyanova, has been identified in the case of the Baza editor-in-chief. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • IT Military Deferral: TASS reports that the acceptance of applications for IT deferrals from military service has begun. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pensioner Treason Case: ASTRA reports a pensioner from Izhevsk sentenced to 15 years for treason but released due to health. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Supreme Court Memorial: TASS reports a memorial service for Irina Podnosova was held. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Yuri Kara Funeral: TASS reports and provides video of the funeral of film director Yuri Kara in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Transbaikal Region: ASTRA reports a teenager claiming torture after detention for forest arson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow Drone Facility Attack: РБК-Україна reports a car belonging to the head of a company manufacturing drones for occupiers was burned. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Roskomnadzor: TASS reports Roskomnadzor blocked 56,000 resources with extremist materials. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Law on Extremist Materials: TASS reports State Duma adopted law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns reinforces this, stating the Duma approved fines up to 5,000 rubles for searching/viewing extremist materials via VPN, and up to 500,000 rubles for advertising VPN services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the State Duma has adopted amendments related to requirements for owners of audiovisual services and social networks regarding blocking films. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo message stating the State Duma has approved a law to block communications for subscribers with frozen bank accounts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that the adopted law on terminating advance payments for mobile operators does not contain norms for blocking communications. This contradicts previous reports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Families of SVO Fighters: TASS reports State Duma allowed widows of SVO fighters to use their cars until inheritance is issued. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Second Child Credit Holidays: Басурин о главном reports Russian families with a second child will receive 1.5 years of credit holidays. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • St. Petersburg (Internal Security): TASS reports security forces conducting operations at the Mikhailovsky Theater. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF State Duma: TASS reports the State Duma has approved the transfer of data regarding migrant children enrollment in schools to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports State Duma Deputy Mikhail Tarasenko (United Russia) has died from illness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the Duma adopted an amendment fining citizens for disclosing state secrets in media. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes video showing a formal session discussing "labor migrants." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the State Duma has adopted several laws aimed at preventing embezzlement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the Duma restricted the sale of electronic railway tickets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы publishes a photo message stating a draft law for year-round military conscription has been submitted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA publishes a video showing a man (later identified as a State Duma Deputy) discussing the implementation of year-round conscription. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that a State Duma Deputy stated the Duma is discussing support measures for passengers with children in case of flight delays. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Messengers: TASS reports that blocking foreign messengers in Russia is not planned. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Internal Affairs: Операция Z shares an image with text about "traitors-Nazis from Russia" being handed over to Moscow by Kyiv. Операция Z reports that Ukrainian MP Skorokhod admitted that TCC "beat mobilized people to death" across Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Armenian Insiders: "Два майора" reports "Armenian insiders" claim security forces will soon work with businessmen close to Pashinyan who conduct business in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kaliningrad "Conqueror" Dies: Старше Эдды reports the death of the "conqueror" of Kaliningrad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow Airport: WarGonzo questions what is happening at Moscow airport during a "carpet plan" (drone attack). TASS reports 517 flights were canceled at Moscow and St. Petersburg airports between July 19-22, affecting 75,000 passengers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a serviceman could not see his family due to air collapse. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes multiple videos showing a crowded airport terminal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Trump Administration & PRO: TASS reports the Trump administration is looking for an alternative to Musk's SpaceX for creating a "Golden Dome" missile defense system. РБК-Україна publishes a photo message implying Trump is seeking alternatives to SpaceX. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Трамп не виключає можливість зустрічі з путіном під час ймовірного візиту до Китаю. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes a video of Donald Trump. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports that the US State Department clarified Trump's ultimatum for Russia in his "50 days" plan, stating it won't strictly adhere to deadlines but will judge by progress in negotiations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports Trump stated that Kyiv likely did not spend all the money allocated by the US for arms purchases. This is a new RF information operation to question US aid to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donbas Drought: Mash на Донбассе provides photo messages of the dried-up Khanzhenkovo reservoir. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volunteer Aid (RF forces): Colonelcassad publishes a video about collecting aid for a 4th vehicle convoy along the KatyaValya line. Народная милиция ДНР publishes photo messages for a fundraising drive for three units. Военкор Котенок makes an appeal for support. Colonelcassad shows two civilian Lada Niva vehicles being prepared. Воин DV publishes a video showing a military hospital providing medical care. The 39th Separate Guards Medical Detachment of the Airborne Forces (VDV) reports a complex and dangerous operation performed on a paratrooper. Военкор Котенок shares a video discussing challenges faced by Russian soldiers, including inadequate footwear and camouflage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow News (Internal): Новости Москвы provides a video about "what you can't google now." Новости Москвы reports that registration fees for vehicles and driver's licenses will increase from September 1, 2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports a person died and nine were injured in a residential building fire in Moscow. This is a domestic civilian incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Population Decline: TASS reports the global population will begin to decline from the 2040s. TASS publishes a photo message stating China's population may significantly decrease to 500-700 million. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Public Wi-Fi: TASS reports the State Duma proposed a program for public Wi-Fi access points. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Omsk Scam: TASS reports a scam where 2.9 million rubles were stolen from an 18-year-old under the guise of flower delivery, with part of the money allegedly sent to aid Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sochi Detainee: ASTRA reports a Sochi resident arrested for "discrediting" the RF army was transferred to a psychiatric hospital. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kursk Oblast: TASS reports the military court sentenced Lithuanian Bartkevichius to 23 years in absentia. Два майора reports the acting governor of Kursk Oblast reports RF AD engaged Ukrainian targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sporting Event: TASS reports Russian synchronized swimmers took second place at the World Championship. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Beer Production: TASS publishes a photo message claiming Russia has displaced Germany from the top five largest beer producers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Law Enforcement Detention: Север.Реалии reports that detentions related to the case of leaking official information occurred in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Krasnodar Krai, and Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Azerbaijan Claims: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Azerbaijan has submitted evidence to Russia of torture and murder of two Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia: TASS reports mass events have been suspended due to threats of assassination attempts on servicemen. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volgograd Oblast: Два майора reports a Telegram channel author in Volgograd was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Steven Seagal: TASS reports actor Steven Seagal has left one of his last projects in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kaluga Oblast: Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on a crime involving migrant children, framing it as a "new trend." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Gambling Advertisement: Alex Parker Returns publishes a video that is an advertisement for online gambling, irrelevant to military intelligence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Blagoveshchensk: Два майора publishes video and photo messages claiming the exposure of a "PLO-OPG" (presumably criminal group) involved in harassing locals. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novgorod Oblast: TASS reports the arrest of Konstantin Kuranov, Minister of Transport and Road Management, on bribery charges. ASTRA provides photo confirmation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports that the Minister of Transport and Road Management of Novgorod Oblast, Konstantin Kuranov, has been arrested in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Trump on China: TASS reports Trump stated he would likely visit China in the near future and did not exclude talks with Putin during this visit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Trump on Obama: TASS reports Trump called on the US Department of Justice to investigate Obama for manipulating intelligence data. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Voronezh: TASS reports that doctors saved a two-year-old child who swallowed 48 magnets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Conscript Testimonial: Оперативний ЗСУ publishes a video of a Russian conscript detailing poor treatment and discipline. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники publishes a video titled "❗️«Мы подписали контракт под давлением»: как обманывают срочников". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Lipetsk Oblast: Игорь Артамонов reports an air danger regime has been introduced across the entire Lipetsk Oblast. Igor Artamonov reports a UAV threat on Yelets and Yelets district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Railway Operations (New): TASS reports that all previously delayed trains of the "Grand Service Express" company have returned to their schedule. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chechnya Hydropower: Kadyrov_95 publishes video showing the opening of a 10 MW hydropower station. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • POW Return (NEW): TASS reports that two RF servicemen in need of medical attention have been returned from Ukrainian-controlled territory. ASTRA corroborates this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports on a video featuring a Russian soldier recently released from Ukrainian captivity, who details alleged mistreatment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS publishes video of a captured Ukrainian officer claiming UAF sent soldiers to their deaths to create passage for "normal" troops. This is a new RF information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Financial Sector (NEW): TASS reports that the Central Bank is considering lowering the key interest rate from 20% to 18% on July 25. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UNESCO (NEW): TASS reports Russia regrets the US withdrawal from UNESCO. TASS also reports the UNESCO Director-General's statement that the US withdrawal was "expected" and would have no financial consequences is surprising. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mural in Stavropol: Colonelcassad reports that a mural of journalist Semyon Eremin, who died during reporting in the SMO zone, was unveiled. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAV Attack in Kryvyi Rih (NEW): ASTRA reports fires after a UAV attack, citing the mayor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kamchatka (NEW): TASS reports 8 kindergarten children in Elizovo (Kamchatka) displayed symptoms of intestinal poisoning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pediatrician Case (NEW): TASS reports pediatrician Nadezhda Buyanova, convicted for "fakes" about RF Armed Forces, is in the same penal colony as director Evgenia Berkovich. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Gold Futures (NEW): TASS reports the price of gold futures rose above $3,450 per troy ounce for the first time since June 16. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • US NNSA Cyberattack (NEW): TASS reports the US National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) was subjected to a hacker attack. This is a significant cyber incident against a critical US national security entity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Khabarovsk Krai Police (NEW): Police of Khabarovsk Krai publish video messages related to domestic law enforcement, likely fraud investigations. This is internal RF domestic news. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sumy Oblast: RF conducted a strike on Sumy community's Kovpakivskyi district. Two explosions heard, likely from KABs, impacting residential area and causing damage to apartment building. Three injured, now increased to 12. Emergency services on site. 5 multi-story buildings, a shopping center, and 18 cars damaged. Threat of aviation munitions for Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. Colonelcassad reports "Anvar" unit operating in the border areas of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, providing drone footage of UAF positions. Enemy reconnaissance UAV from the northeast towards Sumy, with possible AD activity. KAB launches confirmed on Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy: RBC-Ukraine and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publish video and photo evidence showing the aftermath of KAB strikes, confirming three injured, including a child. STERNENKO reports a woman was killed in Sumy due to a drone attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports RF attacked with drones in daylight, damaging a medical facility and playground. A woman and a child were injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a video showing a street scene in Sumy, likely for propaganda purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia launched another strike on Sumy Oblast, resulting in power outages. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing emergency responders aiding injured individuals, confirming 1 fatality and 10 injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports a woman died and others were injured due to a massive Russian UAV strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Suspilne reports explosions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): Sumy partially without power after RF attack, per acting mayor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy Direction: "Два майора" publishes FPV drone footage claiming to target a UAF soldier. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports high-speed target heading towards Sumy from Kursk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports direction of target towards Khotin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Enemy strike UAVs from Sumy Oblast are entering northeastern Poltava Oblast, heading southwest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Enemy strike UAVs detected in southeastern Sumy Oblast, heading west. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes a photo message claiming "Northerners buried the Airborne Assault Forces of Ukraine," accompanied by a collage of images of individuals, likely RF propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Varachino, Sumy Oblast: Операция Z and "Воин DV" claim Russian army liberated Varachino. This is an unverified RF claim. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Sumy Oblast: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy UAVs in northern Sumy Oblast with possible AD activity. Air Force reports a likely reconnaissance UAV heading north towards Sumy city. Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. Means for their destruction have been engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kryvyi Rih: Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation is controlled as of morning 22.07.25. Oleksandr Vilkul provides a briefing summary. Олександр Вілкул reports explosions due to mass Shahed attack. Суспільне reports explosions. Николаевский Ванёк reports the 7 UAVs heading to Kryvyi Rih were neutralized. Николаевский Ванёк reports "minus" on the Mopeds (Shaheds) towards Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports Shahed UAV impacts in several locations, including an enterprise and private homes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Andriivka: Военкор Котенок shares civilian testimonial from displaced person, highlighting destruction and humanitarian impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Krasny Liman: Сливочный каприз publishes photo messages regarding Krasny Liman - Zelyonaya Dolina. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Odesa: Colonelcassad publishes multi-panel image related to Odesa, likely showing areas affected by strikes or for future targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Crimean Shores: "Два майора" publishes video showing military-style inflatable boat with personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Novomikhailovka: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of a woman mourning her son, a Russian SMO participant who died storming Novomikhailovka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Grushevske, Donetsk Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF army occupied Hrushevske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Dachne, Donetsk Oblast: Народная милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Toretsk Direction: Олексій Білошицький provides video captioned "Adventures of patrolmen in Toretsk direction🤙". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Lugansk (LNR): Рыбарь reports on an incident in Lugansk. Mash на Донбассе reports a court recognized the "Kastus Kalinovsky Regiment" as a terrorist organization. Colonelcassad reports a court in DNR recognized the "Kastus Kalinovsky Regiment" as a terrorist organization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Lithuania-Belarus Border: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА publishes graphic on Lithuanian military exercises near Belarus border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast: STERNENKO reports a gas worker, Igor Goncharenko, was killed by Russians. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Zaporizhzhia Front: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes photos showing continued reinforcement. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a video message about strengthening the front, including increasing the defense fund to 3 billion hryvnias, constructing an anti-drone road on the Orikhivskyyi highway, and plans for over 200 km of such infrastructure. Mentions a meeting with the Minister of Defense and President Zelenskyy's decision on Ukraine's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention (anti-personnel mines), stating daily production and delivery of 1,000-2,000 mine components. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Pokrovsk: Рыбарь channel publishes videos claiming to show Russian infantry. Воин DV publishes drone footage showing an armored vehicle being engaged. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны publish video claiming fierce battles, increased pace of advance, and destruction of enemy equipment and personnel. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video claiming RF DRG activity on the road. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Moscow: Север.Реалии publishes a video showing a protest in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukraine (Internal Affairs): Стрелков Игорь Иванович reports Ukrainian authorities have mandated UOC to declare a break with ROC by August 18, or face prohibition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kaluga Oblast: Alex Parker Returns reports a crime involving migrant children. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Luhansk Direction: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is crowdfunding for two copters for artillery reconnaissance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Ukraine General: Night operations provide low visibility, favoring RF UAV and missile saturation tactics. Kharkiv Oblast expects worsening weather (heavy rains, thunderstorms), which could impact ground operations. Oleg Synegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, reports significant weather deterioration is possible. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kyiv City: RBC-Ukraine and Оперативний ЗСУ publish videos showing a crane collapse due to strong winds/storm. RBC-Ukraine also reports heavy rain causing flooded streets. This indicates significant adverse weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports 5 individuals hospitalized due to bad weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Odesa: RBC-Ukraine reports severe flooding due to heavy rain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dry Landscape: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video showing a dry, somewhat barren landscape with smoke plumes in the distance. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Russia: Heavy rainfall in Moscow Oblast indicates adverse weather conditions. Bridge collapse in Moscow region due to heavy rains confirmed. Significant flooding confirmed in Moscow. TASS reports 15 "Tavriya" trains delayed in communication with Crimea. Train delays at Paveletsky Station due to weather. All trains to Black Sea resorts on July 22 will follow schedule. Старше Эдды implies human intervention in Moscow's heavy rains. Новости Москвы publishes video showing heavy rain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ТАСС publishes videos showing flooded metro tracks at "Bagrationovskaya" and "Kuntsevskaya" stations. Another video shows a flooded train station/underpass. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes multiple videos showing severe urban flooding. ASTRA publishes videos showing severe urban flooding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kabardino-Balkaria: ASTRA and Operatyvnyi ZSU report a mudslide in Tyrnyauz and a damaged bridge support due to severe flooding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donbas Drought: Mash на Донбассе provides photo messages of the dried-up Khanzhenkovo reservoir. This indicates a significant drought. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Illegal Logging (Ukraine Carpathians): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports large-scale illegal logging in Ukrainian Carpathians caused 55.8 million UAH in damages. This is an environmental issue, not directly war-related. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF:
  • Air Defense (AD): Fully engaged nationwide against multi-vector RF aerial assault. AD actively tracked multiple missile groups across multiple oblasts. Kyiv AD actively engaged approximately 10 inbound Shaheds and multiple missiles. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast AD shot down 14 UAVs. President Zelenskyy reports UAF AD destroyed over 20 missiles and the "overwhelming majority" of drones (344 of 623 total aerial targets). Southern Defense Forces report 18 Shaheds destroyed. Air Force reports 224 targets shot down/suppressed. Germany to provide 5 Patriot systems and ammunition. Norway ready to provide significant additional funding. UAF AF reports UAV threat for Kharkiv Oblast. Sili Oborony Pivdnya Ukraїny video shows Ukrainian soldiers operating a ZU-23 anti-aircraft gun countering Russian Shahed drones, claiming over 30 air targets neutralized. Air Defense is active in Odesa, engaging Shahed UAVs. Netherlands will make a significant contribution to US Patriot AD systems. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video of 31st Brigade anti-aircraft drone systems successfully attacking Russian drones in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. As of 06:00Z, 26 enemy UAVs have been shot down/suppressed. Air Force confirmed 42 Russian UAVs attacked overnight. Enemy UAV in Black Sea, course to Odesa, AD engaged. UAV from northeast towards Sumy, with possible AD activity. Reconnaissance UAVs on northeast of Chernihiv and southeast of Kryvyi Rih. Air Force reports a likely reconnaissance UAV heading north towards Sumy city. Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. Means for their destruction have been engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showcasing the "Pomsta" (Revenge) Brigade of the State Border Guard Service (DPSU) using drone interceptors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes a video showing a drone flying in the sky, with Ukrainian emblems and a QR code for donations, captioned "Signum unit of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade continuously stands guard over our sky!". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports Germany will transfer two Patriot systems if they can be quickly replaced. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports Germany's willingness to transfer two Patriot systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок reports German Defense Minister Pistorius is ready to quickly supply Kyiv with two Patriot systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes a video showing a cockpit view from a fighter jet, likely a MiG-29 in Ukrainian Air Force markings. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The crash of a Mirage 2000 in Volyn Oblast due to technical malfunction, confirmed by UAF Air Force. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports 7 UAVs heading to Kryvyi Rih were neutralized. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports "minus" on the Mopeds (Shaheds) towards Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports the lifting of UAV threat for all regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Services: DSNS (State Emergency Service) are actively engaged across multiple oblasts. Minister of Internal Affairs reports 15 fires due to Russian shelling. KMVA confirms rescue and emergency work ongoing nationwide. Cleanup and emergency services are working in Sumy. Confirmed images and videos from RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU show DSNS personnel actively engaged in firefighting and damage assessment operations in Odesa. DSNS Ukraine confirms three injured, including a child, in Sumy. STERNENKO confirms one person injured in Odesa. DSNS and local authorities are actively engaged in Kramatorsk. Олексій Білошицький reports paramedics assisting a civilian in Sloviansk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing emergency responders aiding injured individuals. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Control Measures: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats lifted, localized drone alerts persist. Public warnings for shelter ongoing. Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) providing updates; Lukyanivska metro station now fully reopened. Brig. Gen. Hennadiy Shapovalov appointed new commander of UAF Ground Forces. Ukraine plans to open four new embassies. Zelenskyy states new negotiations with Russia planned for Wednesday in Istanbul. Odesa Oblast Military Administration calls for residents to take shelter. ZAPORIZHZHIYA OBLAST MILITARY ADMINISTRATION HAS LIFTED AIR RAID ALERT. Kryvyi Rih mayor states situation is controlled. Generall Staff continues daily photos promoting nationwide moment of silence. RBC-Ukraine reports President Zelenskyy introduced NSDC decision on moratorium on baseless checks and interference by state bodies in business activities. Rustem Umierov will lead the Ukrainian delegation for negotiations with Russia. Rada considers bill to limit NABU/SAP powers today. Zelenskyy states focus on prisoner exchanges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports on the moratorium on business inspections. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы reports on a proposal in the State Duma to allow pregnant women and mothers with children to park in handicapped spaces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports on President Zelenskyy's expectations for upcoming prisoner exchange negotiations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Security Services: SBU and OGP conducting special operation to "neutralize Russian influence on NABU." Detention of NABU detective head (Ruslan Magamedrasulov) suspected of aiding RF. Over 70 searches conducted. SBU initiated comprehensive check on adherence to state secrets legislation in SAP. General Director of "Forests of Ukraine" served suspicion for illegal enrichment. Detention of NABU elite unit "D-2" employee suspected of spying for Russian special services confirmed. President Zelenskyy emphasized need for legal architecture to hold Russia accountable for war. Ukraine returned a teenager forcibly taken from Mariupol to Russia. G7 Ambassadors alarmed by NABU scandal. Ukrainian police helped neutralize pro-Russian hacker network NoName057(16). A court has remanded NABU employee Viktor Husarov into custody without bail. An employee of NABU's "most elite closed unit," suspected of treason, has had a pre-trial detention measure chosen. NABU Director Krivonos called on Zelenskyy not to sign bill limiting NABU and SAP powers. Prosecutor General's Office reports new facts of restricted information leaks from NABU. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора publishes a photo message stating the General Prosecutor's Office is systematically holding accountable individuals working for the enemy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes photo messages about an international police special operation that identified a "pseudominer" of facilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the court arrested the head of a NABU unit, suspected of aiding the aggressor state. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора publishes photo messages related to a criminal organization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора also reports holding a meeting with G7 representatives, SBU, and SBI. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports that international partners has received answers regarding the work of Ukrainian law enforcement agencies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes a video showing a protest in Kyiv regarding the recently adopted bill limiting NABU and SAP powers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes photos and videos of protests in Kyiv, Dnipro, and Lviv against the bill. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a video showing a protest in Kyiv, with a cynical pro-RF caption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС questions why Parliament (263 people) forgot why Russia attacked Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) SBU Head Vasyl Maliuk discusses the NABU case in a press conference. Maliuk commented on the situation with bill №12414, stating "No one liquidated anyone." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photos showing SBU Head Vasyl Maliuk at a meeting with G7 ambassadors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) President Zelenskyy signed bill №12414, which makes NABU and SAP dependent on the Prosecutor General. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The status of bill №12414 on the Verkhovna Rada website has been changed from "signed by the President" back to "being prepared for signature." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also clarifies the status of bill №12414. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports that the law on NABU and SAP has been published in the Rada's "Voice of Ukraine" newspaper, confirming its enactment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the scandalous law on limiting NABU and SAP independence has been published. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Кирил Буданов comments on the NABU and SAP law, stating the nation loses if torn by internal contradictions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) President Zelenskyy comments on the law regarding NABU and SAP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zelenskyy has directly addressed the NABU situation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Foreign Volunteers: 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" claims 2,000 Colombians fighting in its ranks. TASS claims UAF deployed a platoon of "Latin American mercenaries" to Aleksandrovgrad, DNR, and then claims they fled. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing Ukrainian soldiers, identified as being of Latin American origin, participating in combat training exercises on Sumy region, with their commander stating 2,000 Colombian servicemen have come to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Resource Requirements: UAF National Guard's "Rubizh" brigade crowdfunding for "destroyed property and equipment." Zelenskyy emphasizes need for increased domestic production of weapons and drones (50% within six months). Ukraine needs $6 billion to cover gap in weapons procurement. Britain transferred $200 million of $940 million in air defense assets and artillery shells. Urgent fundraiser for drones for UAF 32nd Steel Brigade. French companies ready to start drone production in Ukraine. Canada will allocate $14.6 million USD for maintenance of Ukrainian tanks and finance Ukrainian defense industry. Canada will allocate $15 million for Leopard 2 tank repairs. NATO can provide additional funding for Ukrainian army. Netherlands provides €200M for interceptor drones and €125M for F-16 maintenance. Ukraine will need at least $120 billion for defense next year. РБК-Україна publishes a video appeal from the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade's artillery unit, requesting Electronic Warfare (EW) systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO provides photo and video messages showing a new batch of 417 drones delivered to the front line. STERNENKO continues to promote fundraising for drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна publishes a photo message stating that Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko claims up to 90% of strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this year were carried out by drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) DeepState reports Ukraine will need at least $120 billion for defense next year. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is crowdfunding for two copters for artillery reconnaissance for the 63rd Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO promotes a raffle for a drone pendant. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO further emphasizes the need for continued funding for drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Training: UAF 61st OMBr tank crews conducting rigorous training. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes multiple photos and captions about the role of a sergeant in the military. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF 63rd Mechanized Brigade reports liquidation of 33 RF personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chernihiv: Colonelcassad reports TCC personnel violently detaining a man. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна provides an explanation from the AFU on why TCC conduct visits at concerts and exhibitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UK Sanctions: The UK has introduced new sanctions against 135 tankers belonging to Russia's "shadow fleet." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Losses: General Staff of UAF provides estimated total combat losses for RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade: Video suggests active counter-drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showcasing the "Pomsta" (Revenge) Brigade of the State Border Guard Service (DPSU) using drone interceptors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Domestic Production: Domestic 155-mm Bohdana-BG howitzers have entered service with the 40th Separate Artillery Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Psychological Operations: 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України released a video appealing to RF soldiers to surrender. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Corruption: President of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine suspended. Investigation into illegal coal mining completed. Official of "Forests of Ukraine" notified of suspicion for illegal enrichment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Drone Recruitment: DeepState publishes a recruitment video for the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade's unmanned systems unit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) DeepState promotes an 8-day free IT professions test drive. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Convict Mobilization: Approximately 9500 convicts have joined the AFU. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes a video showing a former convict detailing poor treatment and being forced into assault roles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukraine-Denmark Drone Interceptor: Ukraine and Denmark are developing an AI-powered drone interceptor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Prosecutor Investigation: Investigations launched into attacks on Odesa, Donetsk, and Sumy regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Currency Exchange Rates: Exchange offices lowered the USD rate and raised the EUR rate. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ramstein Meeting: Generals Staff publishes photo messages indicating participation of Ukrainian Minister of Defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Soldier with Weapon: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes photos aiming to boost morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chief of General Staff at Diplomatic Event: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes photos of Major General Andrii Hnatov speaking at a plenary session for heads of foreign diplomatic institutions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pension for Military Personnel: Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes information on pensions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • F-16 Project: Повітряні Сили ЗС України publishes video showcasing an F-16 fighter jet and mentions a "new project." RBC-Україна reports Air Force received first unique mobile complexes for F-16 maintenance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zelenskyy Meeting: Zelenskiy / Official publishes photo messages regarding a meeting on Ukraine's negotiation results and prisoner exchanges. Zelenskiy / Official posts a video of President Zelenskyy interacting with military personnel and civilians, presenting awards. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also publishes the same video from President Zelenskyy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Occupant Targeting: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing aeroreconnaissance of the 4th battalion of the 101st Brigade targeting a Russian occupant. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes drone video showing a munition drop impacting a group of five Russian occupiers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • STERNENKO Tactical Action: STERNENKO provides video from "Sanitary Zone Flying Skull" showing drones on fiber optics flying into enemy positions. STERNENKO publishes drone footage showing an engagement using fiber-optic drones. STERNENKO publishes a video showing an FPV drone strike on a Russian military individual. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes a video of an attempted Ukrainian drone ambush on a Russian pickup truck that failed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes drone footage showing an FPV drone strike on a Russian 'Bukhanka' vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Friendly Civilian Infrastructure: Олександр Вілкул publishes multiple photo messages related to thermal modernization of education facilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Military Administration (OTU "Kharkiv"): ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts a message stating "Treason is needed by the enemy, but the traitor is needed by no one!" ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes drone footage showing the Khartia brigade's engagement against enemy personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, publishes photo messages about strengthening partnership with the French Republic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Front Reinforcement: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes photos showing reinforcement efforts. 🇺🇦 Запопорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a video message about strengthening the front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Medical Front Forum: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes multiple photo messages from a forum titled "Medical Front: experience, challenges, future." 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes photo messages regarding the professional holiday for miners and metallurgists. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • FPV Storm: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes a video titled "FPV-storm from Slobozhansky paratroopers!". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NABU/SAP Legislation (UPDATE): STERNENKO publishes photo messages showing the list of MPs who voted for the bill. STERNENKO publishes a video of a parliamentary session where the bill was voted on. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns claim Zelenskyy has signed the law liquidating the independence of anti-corruption bodies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO reports the court chose pre-trial detention without bail for Ruslan Magamedrasulov. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zelenskiy / Official states the anti-corruption infrastructure will work without Russian influence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Prisoner of War Affairs: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) publishes multiple photos from a meeting with the families of soldiers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Public Health Campaign: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a public service announcement video on the dangers of tobacco and nicotine products. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Video showcasing tactical effectiveness: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video with the caption "😎🇺🇦". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Drone strike footage: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes a video with the caption "Нові "шедеври" "Мосфільму"". (CONFIDENCE: LOW - as the content is ambiguous and not clearly military in nature).
  • Inter-regional cooperation: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes photos regarding a visit from Myroslav Biletskyi, Head of Zakarpattia Oblast Military Administration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Israeli MFA Visit to Kyiv: РБК-Україна reports Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar has arrived. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms the visit. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar has arrived. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Robot Medevac: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes a video demonstrating the 5th Separate Assault Kyiv Brigade using a ground robot for medical evacuation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security Event: RBC-Ukraine reports the commander of the National Police assault brigade "Lyut" (Rage), Maksym Kazban, died in a traffic accident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes photos regarding the death of Maksym Kazban. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes operational information as of 22:00 22.07.2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Volunteer for AFU: ASTRA reports a Russian national who fought for the AFU was unable to enter Poland. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian POW Return (NEW): TASS and ASTRA report that two RF servicemen in need of medical attention have been returned from Ukrainian-controlled territory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports on a video featuring a Russian soldier recently released from Ukrainian captivity, who details alleged mistreatment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS publishes video of a captured Ukrainian officer claiming UAF sent soldiers to their deaths to create passage for "normal" troops. This is a new RF information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Romania (NEW): RBC-Ukraine reports Romania is forming a voluntary contract army. This indicates a proactive measure by a NATO member on Ukraine's border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RUF:
  • Deep Operations (UAV/Missile/Aviation Munitions): RF continues to demonstrate an extremely high capability for widespread, high-volume, multi-vector aerial attacks. The confirmed use of Tu-95MS strategic bombers for cruise missile launches (24 confirmed), alongside continued massed Shahed drone attacks (426 total), and the re-engagement of MiG-31K for Kinzhal ballistic missile use indicates a sustained and robust deep strike capability. Their ability to simultaneously target Northern, Eastern, Central, and significantly Western Ukraine demonstrates coordination and resource availability. The confirmed use of X-101 with cluster munition warheads in Chernivtsi represents an escalation in lethality. The claimed use of FABs on UAF reserves in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates continued air-to-ground precision strike capability. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025. Colonelcassad's claim of a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv confirms tactical adaptation to target UAF domestic defense production. RF has adapted to use KABs against Sumy, Dobropillia and Kramatorsk. Continued use of strike UAVs against Eastern Dnipropetrovsk (Samarivskyi district, now Synelnykivskyi district), Poltava Oblast, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. The confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa indicates RF willingness to hit urban centers without specific military targets, or a failure of precision targeting. Ballistic missile threat confirmed for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and now Dnipropetrop sk Oblast (Samarskyi district). Kotsnews reporting on "Harpies" and their kinetic effect on a village, indicating a new, potent loitering munition or PGMs. MoD Russia also claims destruction of a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad's claim of "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk and associated smoke plume indicates continued widespread use of Shaheds against various targets. Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. Старше Эдды publishes drone video showing an FPV drone strike on a building, followed by a fire, and the Ukrainian flag on a damaged structure. Colonelcassad's video confirming "Harpy" drone use in Orlivka, Sumy Oblast, indicates an adaptive deployment of new drone types for localized strikes. MoD Russia's video shows continued use of MLRS. WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a large explosion and secondary explosions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS crew eliminating enemy targets on the right bank of Dnepr river. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's claim of LMUR use against a UAV command post in Antonivka, Kherson Oblast, indicates the deployment of precision-guided missiles against high-value UAF C2 targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports 7 Shahed UAVs flying towards/through Shyroke/Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports another 7 Shahed UAVs in Beryslav district, heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Олександр Вілкул reports explosions in Kryvyi Rih due to mass Shahed attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ and ASTRA report UAV attacks on Novocherkassk railway station and Novocherkassk GRES (thermal power plant). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) One RF Shahed UAV reported near Posad-Pokrovske (Kherson Oblast). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Shahed UAV impacts reported in Kryvyi Rih, including an enterprise and private homes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF UAVs in Eastern Kharkiv continue movement south. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tactical Drone Capabilities (Enhanced, Counter-Drone, FPV Precision, Fiber-Optic Drones, Robotic Ground Vehicles): The reported destruction of a UAF D-20 howitzer in Kherson by an RF FPV drone ("Tuman") demonstrates RF's continued and effective tactical integration of drones for precision engagements against UAF artillery assets. The new focus on Rostov Oblast becoming a leader in UAV development, with military tech transfer to civilian applications and expanded production, highlights RF's strategic intent to massively scale its drone capabilities and industrial base. The FPV drone strike on a UAF soldier in Sumy direction and two injured in Belgorod by FPV drone further demonstrates precision targeting capabilities. MoD Russia's video of "Feniks" drone in action further confirms active development and deployment of tactical drones for reconnaissance and kinetic effects. Colonelcassad's claim of destroying a UAF UAV command post near Chasiv Yar indicates continued RF counter-drone capabilities. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights counter-drone capabilities. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's drone footage from Chasiv Yar direction indicates continued tactical drone operations. Воин DV's video claiming destruction of armored vehicles and personnel in Alexandrovgrad by 14th Guards Spetsnaz and 5th Guards Tank Brigade further emphasizes RF's advanced tactical drone integration for kinetic effects. Narodnaya милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles near Dachne, potentially with drones. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports the downing of a heavy "Baba Yaga" drone in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Nova Kakhovka drone strike, as per WarGonzo, shows RF drone strike capabilities against ground targets. Colonelcassad's video on "Harpy" drones confirms their tactical deployment for strikes on personnel and vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes drone video claiming the 305th Artillery Brigade using a Lancet loitering munition to strike a UAF Dana self-propelled howitzer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a photo message showcasing a new anti-drone system from Rostec, capable of localized signal suppression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок claims destruction of a Ukrainian boat with personnel in Kherson direction using a fiber-optic FPV drone. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS publishes video showing FPV drone operators from "Rubikon" center striking AFU armored vehicles and personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном publishes a video showcasing the 'Omich' (Омич) robotic complex, a tracked ground vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes drone footage showing military vehicles moving along a road, some appearing to be trucks or transport vehicles, with evidence of anti-drone netting/camouflage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Narodnaya милиция ДНР publishes a video claiming successful FPV drone strikes by a special forces unit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes drone footage from the "Centre" group showing explosions targeting enemy vehicles (SUV, tank) and positions (BABA-YAGA drone, STARLINK terminal). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's appeal for FPV drones and Starlink suggests these are critical, in-demand assets for RF frontline units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes drone footage from the "Centre" group on the Krasnoarmeyskoye direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad (NEW): Airbus showcases its tactical VTOL drone 'Flexrotor' for reconnaissance, surveillance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad is showcasing a video of Chinese "FeiLong" series loitering munitions, demonstrating advanced capabilities including swarm operations and precision targeting. This indicates potential future acquisitions or technology transfer for RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): Воин DV publishes thermal/night vision drone footage showing an explosion engulfing a lead vehicle in a convoy on a dirt road, indicating continued kinetic strikes by RF drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare (Aggressive, Psychological, and Exploitative, Adaptive, Expanding Scope, Exploiting Internal Ukrainian Issues, Targeting Foreign Policy Debates, Leveraging US Politics, Internal Political Control, Normalization): RF continues to use its military actions to bolster its narrative. Messaging from milbloggers directly aims to terrorize the population and undermine Ukrainian morale, while simultaneously attempting to project overwhelming force and futility of Ukrainian resistance. Dissemination of claimed UAF equipment losses (e.g., Bradley BMP) and drone losses ("Baba Yaga" drones), including the destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit in South-Donetsk direction and a D-20 howitzer in Kherson, and a UAF UAV command post, and AFU armored vehicles near Dachne, further reinforce this narrative. RF state media leverages UAF drone attacks on Russian territory to portray Russia as a victim and justify its actions. RF sources promote narratives of internal corruption and social friction within Ukraine (now specifically claiming NABU loses Western "roof" due to Trump, and Zelenskyy signed law liquidating anti-corruption bodies). Propaganda focuses on internal RF stability and development. Continued use of historical revisionism. Claims of ground advances (Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Malaya Tokmachka claim, Torske claim), Starytsia, Varachino, Hrushevske, Novotoretske, Krasnoarmeysk infiltration, Konstantinovskoye, Poltavka, Dzerzhinsk, Torske) and effective DRG ambushes in contested areas (Pokrovsk, Krasnoarmeysk) are heavily publicized. RF milbloggers employ cynical/mocking language to demoralize Ukrainian audiences. RF attempts to exploit perceived US weakness in drone tactics. Internal RF information operations counter perceived "traitors." RF channels publish content projecting public support. TASS actively uses claimed UAF POW statements to portray desertion and low morale within Ukrainian ranks. RF is attempting to leverage historical monuments in Moldova to portray Ukraine as allied with Nazis. TASS is attempting to influence US political discourse by amplifying statements like Jeffrey Sachs' comments on Trump and Ukraine. TASS is now actively promoting civilian news, such as Russia's representation at an international music contest, likely to normalize the information environment and divert attention from military operations. The publication of a POW interrogation video by TASS (Yevgeny Popelyshkin) indicates RF's continued and adaptable capability to exploit captured personnel for psychological operations, aiming to sow discord and undermine UAF command effectiveness. RF will continue to leverage civilian testimonials, as seen from Kursk Oblast and Mash on Donbas, and now Andriivka, to portray itself as a victim of Ukrainian aggression and to justify its military actions to its domestic audience. RF is increasingly using cultural and religious narratives to foster internal unity and traditional values, as seen with promotion of Orthodox Christian traditions and news about spiritual-moral culture in schools. TASS claims average of 400 UAF strikes on RF civilian objects per day. The new reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia is likely to be leveraged by RF to show continued European reliance and economic influence. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed to project stability and resilience despite high-level losses. RF milbloggers will likely continue to question the effectiveness of Western AD (e.g., Patriot against Kinzhal). Alex Parker Returns' military recruitment videos demonstrate continued information operations to attract personnel. TASS reporting on detentions for monument desecration in Crimea is part of this narrative. TASS reporting on the appeal of a billionaire in a bribery case also frames the internal legal system as functioning. The FSB's claims of thwarting Ukrainian special services are intended to project internal security effectiveness. The detention of a former presidential candidate's staff member highlights RF's control over its political information space. The new criminal cases against a former Deputy Minister of Defense demonstrate the state's willingness to publicize internal corruption issues. News from Moscow criticizing EU "brain drain" highlights economic information operations. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. TASS reports that the acceptance of applications for IT deferrals from military service has begun. ASTRA reports a pensioner from Izhevsk was sentenced for treason but released due to health. TASS reports State Duma adopted law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, reinforcing the narrative of external threats and justifying internal security measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора reports the author of a Volgograd Telegram channel was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism, demonstrating continued legal enforcement against online content. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on migrant crime in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump, by rejecting Ukraine's NATO membership, swayed it towards negotiations with Russia. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception and suggest US/Ukraine disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном highlights a State Duma Deputy's request to investigate a perfume company for potentially funding the AFU, indicating RF's expanding scope of internal information operations to identify and suppress perceived threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z reports that Ukrainian MP Skorokhod admitted that TCC "beat mobilized people to death" across Ukraine, an RF information operation aimed at creating internal Ukrainian disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns posts an image with text that translates to "The puzzle has come together. Inside information.", which likely refers to an internal RF information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video showing film director Igor Bogomolov, husband of Ksenia Sobchak, calling the war with Ukraine "the luck and happiness of our generation," and noting Putin awarded him the title "Honored Artist of Russia" the next day. This signals the use of cultural figures to bolster pro-war sentiment and justify the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a photo message containing a statement from the former Polish Land Forces Commander Skrzypczak, highlighting his calls to attack Belarus and Kaliningrad, used to vilify foreign military figures and reinforce the narrative of external threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump is likely to visit China soon, and did not exclude talks with Putin during this visit. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception and suggest RF's diplomatic standing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump called on the US Department of Justice to investigate Obama for manipulating intelligence data related to US elections and Russia. This is a direct attempt to leverage US internal political divisions for RF's information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad states that the newly appointed PM Yulia Svrydenko's claim that corruption is exaggerated in Ukrainian society is a lie, continuing the "Ukrainian corruption" narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews publishes a graphic titled "EVENING BELL" with text criticizing Ukrainian authorities. This is a common RF information operation tactic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports the US House Speaker states no sanctions bills against Russia will be considered until Trump requests it, indicating RF's continued influence operations on US foreign policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном posts a photo message with the caption "Гудбай, ЮНЕСКО! Навсегда?", referring to Trump's potential withdrawal of the US from UNESCO, which is a common RF information operation to highlight perceived Western disarray. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the death of musician Ozzy Osbourne, which is a civilian news item, but its dissemination by TASS could be a low-effort attempt to project normalcy and divert attention. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) MoD Russia publishes a video showing a captured AFU serviceman discussing foreign mercenaries. This is a direct RF information operation to create doubt and demoralize Ukrainian forces and their international partners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo illustrating a Duma legislative session, accompanied by text detailing new fines for searching extremist content, including VPNs, and claiming it will reduce fraudulent calls from Ukrainian call centers. This frames internal RF legal actions as a counter to hybrid threats from Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Рыбарь posts a photo message titled "Цена предательства" (The Price of Betrayal) with a stylized graphic, indicating an ongoing information operation focused on loyalty and deterrence against perceived betrayal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's immediate claim of "liquidation" of a UAF brigade commander, contradicting Ukrainian reports, indicates a rapid and adaptive information operation to capitalize on UAF losses, regardless of cause. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine's reporting on the "chief ideologist of Putin" rewriting history indicates a Ukrainian counter-narrative focusing on RF's information manipulation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z reports a Ukrainian MP criticizing anti-corruption protests, which is amplified by RF milbloggers to further push the narrative of Ukrainian internal division. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок posts a narrative on why Russians do not accept the "brutalization" of Ukraine, aiming to justify the conflict to a domestic and potentially international audience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок publishes a video purportedly showing Ukrainians melting down memorial plaques, which is a strong information operation intended to portray Ukrainians as desecrating history and engaging in "Nazism." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Иран claims it does not seek nuclear weapons, but will continue uranium enrichment, a statement RF will leverage in diplomatic messaging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) «Зона СВО» publishes a video titled "Я русский офицер," featuring a Chechen fighter promoting Russian identity and combat operations. This is a targeted propaganda piece to recruit or inspire specific demographics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Russia regrets the US withdrawal from UNESCO, anticipating political and financial consequences. TASS also reports the UNESCO Director-General's statement that the US withdrawal was "expected" and would have no financial consequences is surprising. These statements are part of RF's diplomatic posturing to frame US actions negatively. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that the "Russian Kherson" underground organization claimed that UAF in Kherson Oblast intentionally settles near civilians. This is an RF information operation aimed at portraying UAF as using human shields. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatsiya Z posts a video related to accusations against Maxim Divnich, a Russian figure, which is then framed to criticize the accusers, likely part of an internal Russian information operation to discredit perceived opponents or maintain public support for certain figures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS has published a new video of a surrendered Ukrainian soldier, claiming that Ukraine is sending invalids with prosthetics to fight. This is a new information operation to demoralize UAF and sow disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's recent video of a Russian POW recounting alleged harsh treatment in Ukrainian captivity is a new, active information operation aimed at discrediting Ukrainian forces and potentially influencing international bodies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): RF milbloggers are publishing video of Russian military training African officers with motivational speeches. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): TASS publishes new video of a captured Ukrainian soldier claiming commanders promised "girls" for successful mission completion, indicating a new line of psychological operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS quotes Ukrainian security sources claiming that some mercenaries terminated their contracts after encountering the frontline. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS publishes video of a captured Ukrainian officer claiming UAF sent soldiers to their deaths to create passage for "normal" troops. This is a new RF information operation to discredit UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports Trump stated that Kyiv likely did not spend all the money allocated by the US for arms purchases. This is a new RF information operation to question US aid to Ukraine and sow doubt. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Artillery Systems (New): Colonelcassad's claim of the use of 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from North Korea indicates a continued and potentially expanding capability to field new or additional artillery systems. MoD Russia's video confirms Uragan MLRS use. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS firing rockets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports continued RF use of artillery and FPV drones in Nikopol district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS crew eliminating enemy targets on the right bank of Dnepr river. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Border Operations: The identified "Anvar" unit operating in Sumy/Chernihiv border regions demonstrates RF's persistent capability for localized reconnaissance and targeting operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in Chernihiv Oblast, and UAVs approaching Nizhyn. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Igor Artamonov reports a UAV threat on Yelets and Yelets district in Lipetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Legal Measures & Internal Control: TASS reporting on the in absentia charging of a blogger for promoting terrorism in Dagestan indicates RF's continued capability and willingness to use legal mechanisms to control internal narratives. The Khabarovsk Krai Police reporting on a criminal case indicates continued focus on domestic law and order. The detention of a hacker in Novosibirsk indicates continued focus on cyber security. TASS reports searches at Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko's home, suggesting internal anti-corruption or security operations. "Два майора" discusses sentencing related to illegal migration, indicating internal security focus. The reporting on the death of the Supreme Court Chairman highlights the functioning of the RF legal system. The detentions in Crimea for monument desecration underscore RF's efforts to control historical narratives. The detention of a migrant in Tyumen and the appeal of a billionaire in a bribery case indicate application of internal law enforcement. The FSB's claims of thwarting Ukrainian special services are intended to project internal security effectiveness. The detention of a former presidential candidate's staff member highlights RF's control over its political information space. The new criminal cases against a former Deputy Minister of Defense for corruption highlight RF's legal mechanisms for internal accountability. Putin's toughening of rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports indicates increased state control over economic interfaces. RF MFA's expanded list of banned EU officials is another example of diplomatic-legal measures. Raids on "Baza" media outlet, and the subsequent arrest of its editor-in-chief, signify an escalated and adaptive control over internal information flows and suppression of independent media. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. TASS reports that the acceptance of applications for IT deferrals from military service has begun. ASTRA reports a pensioner from Izhevsk was sentenced for treason but released due to health. TASS reports State Duma adopted law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. (UPDATE): TASS reports 12 UAVs were destroyed overnight over Tula Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Duma adopted an amendment fining citizens for disclosing state secrets in media. TASS reports no plans to block foreign messengers, but compliance with requirements. TASS reports investigators opened a criminal case against an internet channel administrator for extortion and public justification of terrorism. TASS reports the military court sentenced Lithuanian Bartkevichius to 23 years in absentia for desecrating a military grave and other terror-related crimes in Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, indicating proactive legal measures against perceived threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора reports the author of a Volgograd Telegram channel was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism, demonstrating continued legal enforcement against online content. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the chief editor of the Ryazan online publication "Svoy Kolokolny" (Svoy kolokolnya) Komarov was detained in an extortion case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports a local resident was detained in Veliky Novgorod for planning to join the "Russian Volunteer Corps", a Ukrainian organization banned in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a draft law for year-round conscription has been submitted to the State Duma. This indicates RF is formalizing and potentially expanding its conscription system to sustain personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы publishes a photo message stating a draft law for year-round military conscription has been submitted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора publishes video claiming a "PLO-OPG" (presumably criminal group) was exposed in Blagoveshchensk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the arrest of Konstantin Kuranov, Minister of Transport and Road Management for Novgorod Oblast, on bribery charges. ASTRA provides photo confirmation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports the arrest of Konstantin Kuranov, Minister of Transport and Road Management of Novgorod Oblast, for bribery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports blogger Dud is заочно (in absentia) accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports Yuri Dud is заочно (in absentia) accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo message stating the State Duma has approved a law to block communications for subscribers with frozen bank accounts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes a photo message related to the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that a second suspect, producer Tatyana Lukyanova, has been identified in the case of the Baza editor-in-chief. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that the adopted law on terminating advance payments for mobile operators does not contain norms for blocking communications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS and ASTRA report the return of two medically-needing RF servicemen from Ukraine, signaling functioning POW exchange mechanisms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The law on NABU and SAP being published in the Rada's newspaper means it has legally come into force. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports pediatrician Nadezhda Buyanova, convicted for "fakes" about RF Armed Forces, is in the same penal colony as director Evgenia Berkovich. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports the US National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) was subjected to a hacker attack. This is a significant cyber incident against a critical US national security entity that RF will likely monitor and potentially leverage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): Police of Khabarovsk Krai publish video messages related to domestic law enforcement, indicating continued focus on internal stability and security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports a person died and nine were injured in a residential building fire in Moscow, which is a domestic incident but reflects on internal security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Counter-UAV Capabilities: The successful repulsion of UAV attacks in Rostov-on-Don, Millerovo, Donetsk (Rostov Oblast), and Azov district, as well as three UAVs over Tula Oblast, indicates RF's continued capability to defend against UAF drone incursions. RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight, including nine over Bryansk Oblast. The FPV drone attack in Belgorod and on Samara Oblast indicates that while RF has AD capabilities, UAF drones can still penetrate and cause damage. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights counter-drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a video showing a military aircraft, likely a fighter jet, in flight during low-light conditions. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a photo message showcasing a new anti-drone system from Rostec, capable of localized signal suppression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS and ASTRA report that RF AD forces destroyed 51 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions between 21:00 and 23:40 MSK on July 22. This is a very high claimed number. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): TASS reports 12 UAVs were destroyed overnight over Tula Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Port Operations in Occupied Territories: The continued operation of Mariupol port, even if understaffed, demonstrates RF's capability to restore and utilize critical infrastructure in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Projection: The escort operation by the Steregushchiy-class corvette "Boykiy" demonstrates RF's capability to project naval power and secure logistical routes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): RF milbloggers are publishing video of Russian military training African officers with motivational speeches, with a naval vessel in the background. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • ELINT Capabilities: Colonelcassad's video claiming successful UAF liquidation via radio intercepts indicates RF possesses and utilizes effective Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) capabilities for targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Maneuver Capability (Tactical): TASS video showing an RF APC maneuvering in open terrain indicates continued tactical ground force mobility. Басурин о главном's report of Russian reconnaissance entering Krasnoarmeysk indicates a capability for deep infiltration by special groups. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video confirms Russian reconnaissance and DRG activity in Krasnoarmeysk. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Сливочный каприз" publishes video of a destroyed settlement with a person carrying a Russian flag, captioned "Konstantinovka - Belaya Gora," suggesting RF ground presence and tactical gains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном publishes video claiming "underground forces" are burning UAF SUVs from Kramatorsk to Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Z комитет + карта СВО publishes a tactical map of the Krasnoarmeyskoye direction, indicating areas of control and advances around #Suvorovo. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF advances in Konstantinovskoye and Poltavka directions confirm continued ground pressure and advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Рыбарь's tactical maps indicate continued RF ground operations and advances in the Konstantinovka and Pokrovsko-Mirnogradske directions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок publishes a tactical map for the Dzerzhinsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes a video showing an RF serviceman raising a Russian flag in Belaya Gora, confirming RF presence and likely consolidation of control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z publishes aerial reconnaissance footage of a rural area, indicating military activity, explosions, and damaged buildings, focused on Chaiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video claiming RF DRG activity on the road to Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes drone footage from the "Centre" group on the Krasnoarmeyskoye direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Long-Term Military Budgeting: Budanov's report on Russia's plan to spend $1.1 trillion USD on rearmament by 2036 indicates a long-term, significant commitment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Hydropower (Occupied Territories): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок reports "Naftogaz" states that an important gas production facility was attacked last night with "dozens of drones." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The opening of a new hydropower station in Chechnya reinforces RF's focus on energy infrastructure development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Exercise (NEW): TASS publishes video of the Russian Navy conducting "July Storm" operational exercises, involving over 150 ships, 120 aircraft, 10 coastal missile systems, and 15,000 military personnel. This demonstrates significant naval and combined arms capability projection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Ukraine General: Night operations provide low visibility, favoring RF UAV and missile saturation tactics. Kharkiv Oblast expects worsening weather (heavy rains, thunderstorms), which could impact ground operations. Oleg Synegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, reports significant weather deterioration is possible. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kyiv City: RBC-Ukraine and Оперативний ЗСУ publish videos showing a crane collapse due to strong winds/storm. RBC-Ukraine also reports heavy rain causing flooded streets. This indicates significant adverse weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports 5 individuals hospitalized due to bad weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Odesa: RBC-Ukraine reports severe flooding due to heavy rain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dry Landscape: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video showing a dry, somewhat barren landscape with smoke plumes in the distance. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Russia: Heavy rainfall in Moscow Oblast indicates adverse weather conditions. Bridge collapse in Moscow region due to heavy rains confirmed. Significant flooding confirmed in Moscow. TASS reports 15 "Tavriya" trains delayed in communication with Crimea. Train delays at Paveletsky Station due to weather. All trains to Black Sea resorts on July 22 will follow schedule. Старше Эдды implies human intervention in Moscow's heavy rains. Новости Москвы publishes video showing heavy rain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ТАСС publishes videos showing flooded metro tracks at "Bagrationovskaya" and "Kuntsevskaya" stations. Another video shows a flooded train station/underpass. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes multiple videos showing severe urban flooding. ASTRA publishes videos showing severe urban flooding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kabardino-Balkaria: ASTRA and Operatyvnyi ZSU report a mudslide in Tyrnyauz and a damaged bridge support due to severe flooding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donbas Drought: Mash на Донбассе provides photo messages of the dried-up Khanzhenkovo reservoir. This indicates a significant drought. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Illegal Logging (Ukraine Carpathians): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports large-scale illegal logging in Ukrainian Carpathians caused 55.8 million UAH in damages. This is an environmental issue, not directly war-related. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF:
  • Air Defense (AD): Fully engaged nationwide against multi-vector RF aerial assault. AD actively tracked multiple missile groups across multiple oblasts. Kyiv AD actively engaged approximately 10 inbound Shaheds and multiple missiles. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast AD shot down 14 UAVs. President Zelenskyy reports UAF AD destroyed over 20 missiles and the "overwhelming majority" of drones (344 of 623 total aerial targets). Southern Defense Forces report 18 Shaheds destroyed. Air Force reports 224 targets shot down/suppressed. Germany to provide 5 Patriot systems and ammunition. Norway ready to provide significant additional funding. UAF AF reports UAV threat for Kharkiv Oblast. Sili Oborony Pivdnya Ukraїny video shows Ukrainian soldiers operating a ZU-23 anti-aircraft gun countering Russian Shahed drones, claiming over 30 air targets neutralized. Air Defense is active in Odesa, engaging Shahed UAVs. Netherlands will make a significant contribution to US Patriot AD systems. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video of 31st Brigade anti-aircraft drone systems successfully attacking Russian drones in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. As of 06:00Z, 26 enemy UAVs have been shot down/suppressed. Air Force confirmed 42 Russian UAVs attacked overnight. Enemy UAV in Black Sea, course to Odesa, AD engaged. UAV from northeast towards Sumy, with possible AD activity. Reconnaissance UAVs on northeast of Chernihiv and southeast of Kryvyi Rih. Air Force reports a likely reconnaissance UAV heading north towards Sumy city. Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. Means for their destruction have been engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showcasing the "Pomsta" (Revenge) Brigade of the State Border Guard Service (DPSU) using drone interceptors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes a video showing a drone flying in the sky, with Ukrainian emblems and a QR code for donations, captioned "Signum unit of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade continuously stands guard over our sky!". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports Germany will transfer two Patriot systems if they can be quickly replaced. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports Germany's willingness to transfer two Patriot systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок reports German Defense Minister Pistorius is ready to quickly supply Kyiv with two Patriot systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes a video showing a cockpit view from a fighter jet, likely a MiG-29 in Ukrainian Air Force markings. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The crash of a Mirage 2000 in Volyn Oblast due to technical malfunction, confirmed by UAF Air Force. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports 7 UAVs heading to Kryvyi Rih were neutralized. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports "minus" on the Mopeds (Shaheds) towards Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports the lifting of UAV threat for all regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Services: DSNS (State Emergency Service) are actively engaged across multiple oblasts. Minister of Internal Affairs reports 15 fires due to Russian shelling. KMVA confirms rescue and emergency work ongoing nationwide. Cleanup and emergency services are working in Sumy. Confirmed images and videos from RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU show DSNS personnel actively engaged in firefighting and damage assessment operations in Odesa. DSNS Ukraine confirms three injured, including a child, in Sumy. STERNENKO confirms one person injured in Odesa. DSNS and local authorities are actively engaged in Kramatorsk. Олексій Білошицький reports paramedics assisting a civilian in Sloviansk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing emergency responders aiding injured individuals. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Control Measures: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats lifted, localized drone alerts persist. Public warnings for shelter ongoing. Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) providing updates; Lukyanivska metro station now fully reopened. Brig. Gen. Hennadiy Shapovalov appointed new commander of UAF Ground Forces. Ukraine plans to open four new embassies. Zelenskyy states new negotiations with Russia planned for Wednesday in Istanbul. Odesa Oblast Military Administration calls for residents to take shelter. ZAPORIZHZHIYA OBLAST MILITARY ADMINISTRATION HAS LIFTED AIR RAID ALERT. Kryvyi Rih mayor states situation is controlled. Generall Staff continues daily photos promoting nationwide moment of silence. RBC-Ukraine reports President Zelenskyy introduced NSDC decision on moratorium on baseless checks and interference by state bodies in business activities. Rustem Umierov will lead the Ukrainian delegation for negotiations with Russia. Rada considers bill to limit NABU/SAP powers today. Zelenskyy states focus on prisoner exchanges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports on the moratorium on business inspections. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы reports on a proposal in the State Duma to allow pregnant women and mothers with children to park in handicapped spaces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports on President Zelenskyy's expectations for upcoming prisoner exchange negotiations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Security Services: SBU and OGP conducting special operation to "neutralize Russian influence on NABU." Detention of NABU detective head (Ruslan Magamedrasulov) suspected of aiding RF. Over 70 searches conducted. SBU initiated comprehensive check on adherence to state secrets legislation in SAP. General Director of "Forests of Ukraine" served suspicion for illegal enrichment. Detention of NABU elite unit "D-2" employee suspected of spying for Russian special services confirmed. President Zelenskyy emphasized need for legal architecture to hold Russia accountable for war. Ukraine returned a teenager forcibly taken from Mariupol to Russia. G7 Ambassadors alarmed by NABU scandal. Ukrainian police helped neutralize pro-Russian hacker network NoName057(16). A court has remanded NABU employee Viktor Husarov into custody without bail. An employee of NABU's "most elite closed unit," suspected of treason, has had a pre-trial detention measure chosen. NABU Director Krivonos called on Zelenskyy not to sign bill limiting NABU and SAP powers. Prosecutor General's Office reports new facts of restricted information leaks from NABU. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора publishes a photo message stating the General Prosecutor's Office is systematically holding accountable individuals working for the enemy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes photo messages about an international police special operation that identified a "pseudominer" of facilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the court arrested the head of a NABU unit, suspected of aiding the aggressor state. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора publishes photo messages related to a criminal organization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора also reports holding a meeting with G7 representatives, SBU, and SBI. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports that international partners has received answers regarding the work of Ukrainian law enforcement agencies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes a video showing a protest in Kyiv regarding the recently adopted bill limiting NABU and SAP powers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes photos and videos of protests in Kyiv, Dnipro, and Lviv against the bill. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a video showing a protest in Kyiv, with a cynical pro-RF caption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС questions why Parliament (263 people) forgot why Russia attacked Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) SBU Head Vasyl Maliuk discusses the NABU case in a press conference. Maliuk commented on the situation with bill №12414, stating "No one liquidated anyone." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photos showing SBU Head Vasyl Maliuk at a meeting with G7 ambassadors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) President Zelenskyy signed bill №12414, which makes NABU and SAP dependent on the Prosecutor General. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The status of bill №12414 on the Verkhovna Rada website has been changed from "signed by the President" back to "being prepared for signature." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also clarifies the status of bill №12414. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports that the law on NABU and SAP has been published in the Rada's "Voice of Ukraine" newspaper, confirming its enactment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the scandalous law on limiting NABU and SAP independence has been published. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Кирил Буданов comments on the NABU and SAP law, stating the nation loses if torn by internal contradictions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) President Zelenskyy comments on the law regarding NABU and SAP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zelenskyy has directly addressed the NABU situation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Foreign Volunteers: 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" claims 2,000 Colombians fighting in its ranks. TASS claims UAF deployed a platoon of "Latin American mercenaries" to Aleksandrovgrad, DNR, and then claims they fled. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing Ukrainian soldiers, identified as being of Latin American origin, participating in combat training exercises on Sumy region, with their commander stating 2,000 Colombian servicemen have come to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Resource Requirements: UAF National Guard's "Rubizh" brigade crowdfunding for "destroyed property and equipment." Zelenskyy emphasizes need for increased domestic production of weapons and drones (50% within six months). Ukraine needs $6 billion to cover gap in weapons procurement. Britain transferred $200 million of $940 million in air defense assets and artillery shells. Urgent fundraiser for drones for UAF 32nd Steel Brigade. French companies ready to start drone production in Ukraine. Canada will allocate $14.6 million USD for maintenance of Ukrainian tanks and finance Ukrainian defense industry. Canada will allocate $15 million for Leopard 2 tank repairs. NATO can provide additional funding for Ukrainian army. Netherlands provides €200M for interceptor drones and €125M for F-16 maintenance. Ukraine will need at least $120 billion for defense next year. РБК-Україна publishes a video appeal from the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade's artillery unit, requesting Electronic Warfare (EW) systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO provides photo and video messages showing a new batch of 417 drones delivered to the front line. STERNENKO continues to promote fundraising for drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна publishes a photo message stating that Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko claims up to 90% of strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this year were carried out by drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) DeepState reports Ukraine will need at least $120 billion for defense next year. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is crowdfunding for two copters for artillery reconnaissance for the 63rd Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO promotes a raffle for a drone pendant. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO further emphasizes the need for continued funding for drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Training: UAF 61st OMBr tank crews conducting rigorous training. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes multiple photos and captions about the role of a sergeant in the military. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF 63rd Mechanized Brigade reports liquidation of 33 RF personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chernihiv: Colonelcassad reports TCC personnel violently detaining a man. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна provides an explanation from the AFU on why TCC conduct visits at concerts and exhibitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UK Sanctions: The UK has introduced new sanctions against 135 tankers belonging to Russia's "shadow fleet." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Losses: General Staff of UAF provides estimated total combat losses for RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade: Video suggests active counter-drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showcasing the "Pomsta" (Revenge) Brigade of the State Border Guard Service (DPSU) using drone interceptors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Domestic Production: Domestic 155-mm Bohdana-BG howitzers have entered service with the 40th Separate Artillery Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Psychological Operations: 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України released a video appealing to RF soldiers to surrender. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Corruption: President of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine suspended. Investigation into illegal coal mining completed. Official of "Forests of Ukraine" notified of suspicion for illegal enrichment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Drone Recruitment: DeepState publishes a recruitment video for the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade's unmanned systems unit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) DeepState promotes an 8-day free IT professions test drive. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Convict Mobilization: Approximately 9500 convicts have joined the AFU. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes a video showing a former convict detailing poor treatment and being forced into assault roles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukraine-Denmark Drone Interceptor: Ukraine and Denmark are developing an AI-powered drone interceptor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Prosecutor Investigation: Investigations launched into attacks on Odesa, Donetsk, and Sumy regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Currency Exchange Rates: Exchange offices lowered the USD rate and raised the EUR rate. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ramstein Meeting: Generals Staff publishes photo messages indicating participation of Ukrainian Minister of Defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Soldier with Weapon: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes photos aiming to boost morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chief of General Staff at Diplomatic Event: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes photos of Major General Andrii Hnatov speaking at a plenary session for heads of foreign diplomatic institutions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pension for Military Personnel: Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes information on pensions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • F-16 Project: Повітряні Сили ЗС України publishes video showcasing an F-16 fighter jet and mentions a "new project." RBC-Україна reports Air Force received first unique mobile complexes for F-16 maintenance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zelenskyy Meeting: Zelenskiy / Official publishes photo messages regarding a meeting on Ukraine's negotiation results and prisoner exchanges. Zelenskiy / Official posts a video of President Zelenskyy interacting with military personnel and civilians, presenting awards. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also publishes the same video from President Zelenskyy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Occupant Targeting: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing aeroreconnaissance of the 4th battalion of the 101st Brigade targeting a Russian occupant. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes drone video showing a munition drop impacting a group of five Russian occupiers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • STERNENKO Tactical Action: STERNENKO provides video from "Sanitary Zone Flying Skull" showing drones on fiber optics flying into enemy positions. STERNENKO publishes drone footage showing an engagement using fiber-optic drones. STERNENKO publishes a video showing an FPV drone strike on a Russian military individual. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes a video of an attempted Ukrainian drone ambush on a Russian pickup truck that failed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes drone footage showing an FPV drone strike on a Russian 'Bukhanka' vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Friendly Civilian Infrastructure: Олександр Вілкул publishes multiple photo messages related to thermal modernization of education facilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Military Administration (OTU "Kharkiv"): ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts a message stating "Treason is needed by the enemy, but the traitor is needed by no one!" ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes drone footage showing the Khartia brigade's engagement against enemy personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, publishes photo messages about strengthening partnership with the French Republic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Front Reinforcement: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes photos showing reinforcement efforts. 🇺🇦 Запопорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a video message about strengthening the front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Medical Front Forum: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes multiple photo messages from a forum titled "Medical Front: experience, challenges, future." 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes photo messages regarding the professional holiday for miners and metallurgists. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • FPV Storm: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes a video titled "FPV-storm from Slobozhansky paratroopers!". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NABU/SAP Legislation (UPDATE): STERNENKO publishes photo messages showing the list of MPs who voted for the bill. STERNENKO publishes a video of a parliamentary session where the bill was voted on. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns claim Zelenskyy has signed the law liquidating the independence of anti-corruption bodies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO reports the court chose pre-trial detention without bail for Ruslan Magamedrasulov. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zelenskiy / Official states the anti-corruption infrastructure will work without Russian influence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Prisoner of War Affairs: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) publishes multiple photos from a meeting with the families of soldiers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Public Health Campaign: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a public service announcement video on the dangers of tobacco and nicotine products. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Video showcasing tactical effectiveness: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video with the caption "😎🇺🇦". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Drone strike footage: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes a video with the caption "Нові "шедеври" "Мосфільму"". (CONFIDENCE: LOW - as the content is ambiguous and not clearly military in nature).
  • Inter-regional cooperation: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes photos regarding a visit from Myroslav Biletskyi, Head of Zakarpattia Oblast Military Administration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Israeli MFA Visit to Kyiv: РБК-Україна reports Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar has arrived. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms the visit. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar has arrived. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Robot Medevac: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes a video demonstrating the 5th Separate Assault Kyiv Brigade using a ground robot for medical evacuation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security Event: RBC-Ukraine reports the commander of the National Police assault brigade "Lyut" (Rage), Maksym Kazban, died in a traffic accident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes photos regarding the death of Maksym Kazban. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes operational information as of 22:00 22.07.2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Volunteer for AFU: ASTRA reports a Russian national who fought for the AFU was unable to enter Poland. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian POW Return (NEW): TASS and ASTRA report that two RF servicemen in need of medical attention have been returned from Ukrainian-controlled territory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports on a video featuring a Russian soldier recently released from Ukrainian captivity, who details alleged mistreatment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS publishes video of a captured Ukrainian officer claiming UAF sent soldiers to their deaths to create passage for "normal" troops. This is a new RF information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Romania (NEW): RBC-Ukraine reports Romania is forming a voluntary contract army. This indicates a proactive measure by a NATO member on Ukraine's border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RUF:
  • Deep Operations (UAV/Missile/Aviation Munitions): RF continues to demonstrate an extremely high capability for widespread, high-volume, multi-vector aerial attacks. The confirmed use of Tu-95MS strategic bombers for cruise missile launches (24 confirmed), alongside continued massed Shahed drone attacks (426 total), and the re-engagement of MiG-31K for Kinzhal ballistic missile use indicates a sustained and robust deep strike capability. Their ability to simultaneously target Northern, Eastern, Central, and significantly Western Ukraine demonstrates coordination and resource availability. The confirmed use of X-101 with cluster munition warheads in Chernivtsi represents an escalation in lethality. The claimed use of FABs on UAF reserves in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates continued air-to-ground precision strike capability. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025. Colonelcassad's claim of a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv confirms tactical adaptation to target UAF domestic defense production. RF has adapted to use KABs against Sumy, Dobropillia and Kramatorsk. Continued use of strike UAVs against Eastern Dnipropetrovsk (Samarivskyi district, now Synelnykivskyi district), Poltava Oblast, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. The confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa indicates RF willingness to hit urban centers without specific military targets, or a failure of precision targeting. Ballistic missile threat confirmed for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and now Dnipropetrop sk Oblast (Samarskyi district). Kotsnews reporting on "Harpies" and their kinetic effect on a village, indicating a new, potent loitering munition or PGMs. MoD Russia also claims destruction of a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad's claim of "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk and associated smoke plume indicates continued widespread use of Shaheds against various targets. Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. Старше Эдды publishes drone video showing an FPV drone strike on a building, followed by a fire, and the Ukrainian flag on a damaged structure. Colonelcassad's video confirming "Harpy" drone use in Orlivka, Sumy Oblast, indicates an adaptive deployment of new drone types for localized strikes. MoD Russia's video shows continued use of MLRS. WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a large explosion and secondary explosions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS crew eliminating enemy targets on the right bank of Dnepr river. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's claim of LMUR use against a UAV command post in Antonivka, Kherson Oblast, indicates the deployment of precision-guided missiles against high-value UAF C2 targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports 7 Shahed UAVs flying towards/through Shyroke/Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports another 7 Shahed UAVs in Beryslav district, heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Олександр Вілкул reports explosions in Kryvyi Rih due to mass Shahed attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ and ASTRA report UAV attacks on Novocherkassk railway station and Novocherkassk GRES (thermal power plant). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) One RF Shahed UAV reported near Posad-Pokrovske (Kherson Oblast). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Shahed UAV impacts reported in Kryvyi Rih, including an enterprise and private homes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF UAVs in Eastern Kharkiv continue movement south. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tactical Drone Capabilities (Enhanced, Counter-Drone, FPV Precision, Fiber-Optic Drones, Robotic Ground Vehicles): The reported destruction of a UAF D-20 howitzer in Kherson by an RF FPV drone ("Tuman") demonstrates RF's continued and effective tactical integration of drones for precision engagements against UAF artillery assets. The new focus on Rostov Oblast becoming a leader in UAV development, with military tech transfer to civilian applications and expanded production, highlights RF's strategic intent to massively scale its drone capabilities and industrial base. The FPV drone strike on a UAF soldier in Sumy direction and two injured in Belgorod by FPV drone further demonstrates precision targeting capabilities. MoD Russia's video of "Feniks" drone in action further confirms active development and deployment of tactical drones for reconnaissance and kinetic effects. Colonelcassad's claim of destroying a UAF UAV command post near Chasiv Yar indicates continued RF counter-drone capabilities. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights counter-drone capabilities. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's drone footage from Chasiv Yar direction indicates continued tactical drone operations. Воин DV's video claiming destruction of armored vehicles and personnel in Alexandrovgrad by 14th Guards Spetsnaz and 5th Guards Tank Brigade further emphasizes RF's advanced tactical drone integration for kinetic effects. Narodnaya милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles near Dachne, potentially with drones. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports the downing of a heavy "Baba Yaga" drone in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Nova Kakhovka drone strike, as per WarGonzo, shows RF drone strike capabilities against ground targets. Colonelcassad's video on "Harpy" drones confirms their tactical deployment for strikes on personnel and vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes drone video claiming the 305th Artillery Brigade using a Lancet loitering munition to strike a UAF Dana self-propelled howitzer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a photo message showcasing a new anti-drone system from Rostec, capable of localized signal suppression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок claims destruction of a Ukrainian boat with personnel in Kherson direction using a fiber-optic FPV drone. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS publishes video showing FPV drone operators from "Rubikon" center striking AFU armored vehicles and personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном publishes a video showcasing the 'Omich' (Омич) robotic complex, a tracked ground vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes drone footage showing military vehicles moving along a road, some appearing to be trucks or transport vehicles, with evidence of anti-drone netting/camouflage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Narodnaya милиция ДНР publishes a video claiming successful FPV drone strikes by a special forces unit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes drone footage from the "Centre" group showing explosions targeting enemy vehicles (SUV, tank) and positions (BABA-YAGA drone, STARLINK terminal). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's appeal for FPV drones and Starlink suggests these are critical, in-demand assets for RF frontline units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes drone footage from the "Centre" group on the Krasnoarmeyskoye direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad (NEW): Airbus showcases its tactical VTOL drone 'Flexrotor' for reconnaissance, surveillance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad is showcasing a video of Chinese "FeiLong" series loitering munitions, demonstrating advanced capabilities including swarm operations and precision targeting. This indicates potential future acquisitions or technology transfer for RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): Воин DV publishes thermal/night vision drone footage showing an explosion engulfing a lead vehicle in a convoy on a dirt road, indicating continued kinetic strikes by RF drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare (Aggressive, Psychological, and Exploitative, Adaptive, Expanding Scope, Exploiting Internal Ukrainian Issues, Targeting Foreign Policy Debates, Leveraging US Politics, Internal Political Control, Normalization): RF continues to use its military actions to bolster its narrative. Messaging from milbloggers directly aims to terrorize the population and undermine Ukrainian morale, while simultaneously attempting to project overwhelming force and futility of Ukrainian resistance. Dissemination of claimed UAF equipment losses (e.g., Bradley BMP) and drone losses ("Baba Yaga" drones), including the destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit in South-Donetsk direction and a D-20 howitzer in Kherson, and a UAF UAV command post, and AFU armored vehicles near Dachne, further reinforce this narrative. RF state media leverages UAF drone attacks on Russian territory to portray Russia as a victim and justify its actions. RF sources promote narratives of internal corruption and social friction within Ukraine (now specifically claiming NABU loses Western "roof" due to Trump, and Zelenskyy signed law liquidating anti-corruption bodies). Propaganda focuses on internal RF stability and development. Continued use of historical revisionism. Claims of ground advances (Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Malaya Tokmachka claim, Torske claim), Starytsia, Varachino, Hrushevske, Novotoretske, Krasnoarmeysk infiltration, Konstantinovskoye, Poltavka, Dzerzhinsk, Torske) and effective DRG ambushes in contested areas (Pokrovsk, Krasnoarmeysk) are heavily publicized. RF milbloggers employ cynical/mocking language to demoralize Ukrainian audiences. RF attempts to exploit perceived US weakness in drone tactics. Internal RF information operations counter perceived "traitors." RF channels publish content projecting public support. TASS actively uses claimed UAF POW statements to portray desertion and low morale within Ukrainian ranks. RF is attempting to leverage historical monuments in Moldova to portray Ukraine as allied with Nazis. TASS is attempting to influence US political discourse by amplifying statements like Jeffrey Sachs' comments on Trump and Ukraine. TASS is now actively promoting civilian news, such as Russia's representation at an international music contest, likely to normalize the information environment and divert attention from military operations. The publication of a POW interrogation video by TASS (Yevgeny Popelyshkin) indicates RF's continued and adaptable capability to exploit captured personnel for psychological operations, aiming to sow discord and undermine UAF command effectiveness. RF will continue to leverage civilian testimonials, as seen from Kursk Oblast and Mash on Donbas, and now Andriivka, to portray itself as a victim of Ukrainian aggression and to justify its military actions to its domestic audience. RF is increasingly using cultural and religious narratives to foster internal unity and traditional values, as seen with promotion of Orthodox Christian traditions and news about spiritual-moral culture in schools. TASS claims average of 400 UAF strikes on RF civilian objects per day. The new reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia is likely to be leveraged by RF to show continued European reliance and economic influence. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed to project stability and resilience despite high-level losses. RF milbloggers will likely continue to question the effectiveness of Western AD (e.g., Patriot against Kinzhal). Alex Parker Returns' military recruitment videos demonstrate continued information operations to attract personnel. TASS reporting on detentions for monument desecration in Crimea is part of this narrative. TASS reporting on the appeal of a billionaire in a bribery case also frames the internal legal system as functioning. The FSB's claims of thwarting Ukrainian special services are intended to project internal security effectiveness. The detention of a former presidential candidate's staff member highlights RF's control over its political information space. The new criminal cases against a former Deputy Minister of Defense demonstrate the state's willingness to publicize internal corruption issues. News from Moscow criticizing EU "brain drain" highlights economic information operations. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. TASS reports that the acceptance of applications for IT deferrals from military service has begun. ASTRA reports a pensioner from Izhevsk was sentenced for treason but released due to health. TASS reports State Duma adopted law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, reinforcing the narrative of external threats and justifying internal security measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора reports the author of a Volgograd Telegram channel was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism, demonstrating continued legal enforcement against online content. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on migrant crime in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump, by rejecting Ukraine's NATO membership, swayed it towards negotiations with Russia. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception and suggest US/Ukraine disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном highlights a State Duma Deputy's request to investigate a perfume company for potentially funding the AFU, indicating RF's expanding scope of internal information operations to identify and suppress perceived threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z reports that Ukrainian MP Skorokhod admitted that TCC "beat mobilized people to death" across Ukraine, an RF information operation aimed at creating internal Ukrainian disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns posts an image with text that translates to "The puzzle has come together. Inside information.", which likely refers to an internal RF information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video showing film director Igor Bogomolov, husband of Ksenia Sobchak, calling the war with Ukraine "the luck and happiness of our generation," and noting Putin awarded him the title "Honored Artist of Russia" the next day. This signals the use of cultural figures to bolster pro-war sentiment and justify the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a photo message containing a statement from the former Polish Land Forces Commander Skrzypczak, highlighting his calls to attack Belarus and Kaliningrad, used to vilify foreign military figures and reinforce the narrative of external threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump is likely to visit China soon, and did not exclude talks with Putin during this visit. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception and suggest RF's diplomatic standing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump called on the US Department of Justice to investigate Obama for manipulating intelligence data related to US elections and Russia. This is a direct attempt to leverage US internal political divisions for RF's information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad states that the newly appointed PM Yulia Svrydenko's claim that corruption is exaggerated in Ukrainian society is a lie, continuing the "Ukrainian corruption" narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews publishes a graphic titled "EVENING BELL" with text criticizing Ukrainian authorities. This is a common RF information operation tactic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports the US House Speaker states no sanctions bills against Russia will be considered until Trump requests it, indicating RF's continued influence operations on US foreign policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном posts a photo message with the caption "Гудбай, ЮНЕСКО! Навсегда?", referring to Trump's potential withdrawal of the US from UNESCO, which is a common RF information operation to highlight perceived Western disarray. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the death of musician Ozzy Osbourne, which is a civilian news item, but its dissemination by TASS could be a low-effort attempt to project normalcy and divert attention. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) MoD Russia publishes a video showing a captured AFU serviceman discussing foreign mercenaries. This is a direct RF information operation to create doubt and demoralize Ukrainian forces and their international partners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo illustrating a Duma legislative session, accompanied by text detailing new fines for searching extremist content, including VPNs, and claiming it will reduce fraudulent calls from Ukrainian call centers. This frames internal RF legal actions as a counter to hybrid threats from Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Рыбарь posts a photo message titled "Цена предательства" (The Price of Betrayal) with a stylized graphic, indicating an ongoing information operation focused on loyalty and deterrence against perceived betrayal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's immediate claim of "liquidation" of a UAF brigade commander, contradicting Ukrainian reports, indicates a rapid and adaptive information operation to capitalize on UAF losses, regardless of cause. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine's reporting on the "chief ideologist of Putin" rewriting history indicates a Ukrainian counter-narrative focusing on RF's information manipulation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z reports a Ukrainian MP criticizing anti-corruption protests, which is amplified by RF milbloggers to further push the narrative of Ukrainian internal division. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок posts a narrative on why Russians do not accept the "brutalization" of Ukraine, aiming to justify the conflict to a domestic and potentially international audience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок publishes a video purportedly showing Ukrainians melting down memorial plaques, which is a strong information operation intended to portray Ukrainians as desecrating history and engaging in "Nazism." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Иран claims it does not seek nuclear weapons, but will continue uranium enrichment, a statement RF will leverage in diplomatic messaging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) «Зона СВО» publishes a video titled "Я русский офицер," featuring a Chechen fighter promoting Russian identity and combat operations. This is a targeted propaganda piece to recruit or inspire specific demographics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Russia regrets the US withdrawal from UNESCO, anticipating political and financial consequences. TASS also reports the UNESCO Director-General's statement that the US withdrawal was "expected" and would have no financial consequences is surprising. These statements are part of RF's diplomatic posturing to frame US actions negatively. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that the "Russian Kherson" underground organization claimed that UAF in Kherson Oblast intentionally settles near civilians. This is an RF information operation aimed at portraying UAF as using human shields. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatsiya Z posts a video related to accusations against Maxim Divnich, a Russian figure, which is then framed to criticize the accusers, likely part of an internal Russian information operation to discredit perceived opponents or maintain public support for certain figures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS has published a new video of a surrendered Ukrainian soldier, claiming that Ukraine is sending invalids with prosthetics to fight. This is a new information operation to demoralize UAF and sow disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's recent video of a Russian POW recounting alleged harsh treatment in Ukrainian captivity is a new, active information operation aimed at discrediting Ukrainian forces and potentially influencing international bodies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): RF milbloggers are publishing video of Russian military training African officers with motivational speeches. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): TASS publishes new video of a captured Ukrainian soldier claiming commanders promised "girls" for successful mission completion, indicating a new line of psychological operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS quotes Ukrainian security sources claiming that some mercenaries terminated their contracts after encountering the frontline. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS publishes video of a captured Ukrainian officer claiming UAF sent soldiers to their deaths to create passage for "normal" troops. This is a new RF information operation to discredit UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports Trump stated that Kyiv likely did not spend all the money allocated by the US for arms purchases. This is a new RF information operation to question US aid to Ukraine and sow doubt. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Artillery Systems (New): Colonelcassad's claim of the use of 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from North Korea indicates a continued and potentially expanding capability to field new or additional artillery systems. MoD Russia's video confirms Uragan MLRS use. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS firing rockets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports continued RF use of artillery and FPV drones in Nikopol district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS crew eliminating enemy targets on the right bank of Dnepr river. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Border Operations: The identified "Anvar" unit operating in Sumy/Chernihiv border regions demonstrates RF's persistent capability for localized reconnaissance and targeting operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in Chernihiv Oblast, and UAVs approaching Nizhyn. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Igor Artamonov reports a UAV threat on Yelets and Yelets district in Lipetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Legal Measures & Internal Control: TASS reporting on the in absentia charging of a blogger for promoting terrorism in Dagestan indicates RF's continued capability and willingness to use legal mechanisms to control internal narratives. The Khabarovsk Krai Police reporting on a criminal case indicates continued focus on domestic law and order. The detention of a hacker in Novosibirsk indicates continued focus on cyber security. TASS reports searches at Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko's home, suggesting internal anti-corruption or security operations. "Два майора" discusses sentencing related to illegal migration, indicating internal security focus. The reporting on the death of the Supreme Court Chairman highlights the functioning of the RF legal system. The detentions in Crimea for monument desecration underscore RF's efforts to control historical narratives. The detention of a migrant in Tyumen and the appeal of a billionaire in a bribery case indicate application of internal law enforcement. The FSB's claims of thwarting Ukrainian special services are intended to project internal security effectiveness. The detention of a former presidential candidate's staff member highlights RF's control over its political information space. The new criminal cases against a former Deputy Minister of Defense for corruption highlight RF's legal mechanisms for internal accountability. Putin's toughening of rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports indicates increased state control over economic interfaces. RF MFA's expanded list of banned EU officials is another example of diplomatic-legal measures. Raids on "Baza" media outlet, and the subsequent arrest of its editor-in-chief, signify an escalated and adaptive control over internal information flows and suppression of independent media. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. TASS reports that the acceptance of applications for IT deferrals from military service has begun. ASTRA reports a pensioner from Izhevsk was sentenced for treason but released due to health. TASS reports State Duma adopted law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. (UPDATE): TASS reports 12 UAVs were destroyed overnight over Tula Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Duma adopted an amendment fining citizens for disclosing state secrets in media. TASS reports no plans to block foreign messengers, but compliance with requirements. TASS reports investigators opened a criminal case against an internet channel administrator for extortion and public justification of terrorism. TASS reports the military court sentenced Lithuanian Bartkevichius to 23 years in absentia for desecrating a military grave and other terror-related crimes in Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, indicating proactive legal measures against perceived threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора reports the author of a Volgograd Telegram channel was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism, demonstrating continued legal enforcement against online content. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the chief editor of the Ryazan online publication "Svoy Kolokolny" (Svoy kolokolnya) Komarov was detained in an extortion case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports a local resident was detained in Veliky Novgorod for planning to join the "Russian Volunteer Corps", a Ukrainian organization banned in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a draft law for year-round conscription has been submitted to the State Duma. This indicates RF is formalizing and potentially expanding its conscription system to sustain personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы publishes a photo message stating a draft law for year-round military conscription has been submitted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора publishes video claiming a "PLO-OPG" (presumably criminal group) was exposed in Blagoveshchensk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the arrest of Konstantin Kuranov, Minister of Transport and Road Management for Novgorod Oblast, on bribery charges. ASTRA provides photo confirmation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports the arrest of Konstantin Kuranov, Minister of Transport and Road Management of Novgorod Oblast, for bribery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports blogger Dud is заочно (in absentia) accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports Yuri Dud is заочно (in absentia) accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo message stating the State Duma has approved a law to block communications for subscribers with frozen bank accounts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes a photo message related to the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that a second suspect, producer Tatyana Lukyanova, has been identified in the case of the Baza editor-in-chief. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that the adopted law on terminating advance payments for mobile operators does not contain norms for blocking communications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS and ASTRA report the return of two medically-needing RF servicemen from Ukraine, signaling functioning POW exchange mechanisms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The law on NABU and SAP being published in the Rada's newspaper means it has legally come into force. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports pediatrician Nadezhda Buyanova, convicted for "fakes" about RF Armed Forces, is in the same penal colony as director Evgenia Berkovich. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports the US National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) was subjected to a hacker attack. This is a significant cyber incident against a critical US national security entity that RF will likely monitor and potentially leverage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): Police of Khabarovsk Krai publish video messages related to domestic law enforcement, indicating continued focus on internal stability and security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports a person died and nine were injured in a residential building fire in Moscow, which is a domestic incident but reflects on internal security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Counter-UAV Capabilities: The successful repulsion of UAV attacks in Rostov-on-Don, Millerovo, Donetsk (Rostov Oblast), and Azov district, as well as three UAVs over Tula Oblast, indicates RF's continued capability to defend against UAF drone incursions. RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight, including nine over Bryansk Oblast. The FPV drone attack in Belgorod and on Samara Oblast indicates that while RF has AD capabilities, UAF drones can still penetrate and cause damage. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights counter-drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a video showing a military aircraft, likely a fighter jet, in flight during low-light conditions. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a photo message showcasing a new anti-drone system from Rostec, capable of localized signal suppression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS and ASTRA report that RF AD forces destroyed 51 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions between 21:00 and 23:40 MSK on July 22. This is a very high claimed number. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): TASS reports 12 UAVs were destroyed overnight over Tula Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Port Operations in Occupied Territories: The continued operation of Mariupol port, even if understaffed, demonstrates RF's capability to restore and utilize critical infrastructure in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Projection: The escort operation by the Steregushchiy-class corvette "Boykiy" demonstrates RF's capability to project naval power and secure logistical routes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): RF milbloggers are publishing video of Russian military training African officers with motivational speeches, with a naval vessel in the background. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • ELINT Capabilities: Colonelcassad's video claiming successful UAF liquidation via radio intercepts indicates RF possesses and utilizes effective Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) capabilities for targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Maneuver Capability (Tactical): TASS video showing an RF APC maneuvering in open terrain indicates continued tactical ground force mobility. Басурин о главном's report of Russian reconnaissance entering Krasnoarmeysk indicates a capability for deep infiltration by special groups. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video confirms Russian reconnaissance and DRG activity in Krasnoarmeysk. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Сливочный каприз" publishes video of a destroyed settlement with a person carrying a Russian flag, captioned "Konstantinovka - Belaya Gora," suggesting RF ground presence and tactical gains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном publishes video claiming "underground forces" are burning UAF SUVs from Kramatorsk to Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Z комитет + карта СВО publishes a tactical map of the Krasnoarmeyskoye direction, indicating areas of control and advances around #Suvorovo. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF advances in Konstantinovskoye and Poltavka directions confirm continued ground pressure and advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Рыбарь's tactical maps indicate continued RF ground operations and advances in the Konstantinovka and Pokrovsko-Mirnogradske directions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок publishes a tactical map for the Dzerzhinsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes a video showing an RF serviceman raising a Russian flag in Belaya Gora, confirming RF presence and likely consolidation of control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z publishes aerial reconnaissance footage of a rural area, indicating military activity, explosions, and damaged buildings, focused on Chaiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video claiming RF DRG activity on the road to Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes drone footage from the "Centre" group on the Krasnoarmeyskoye direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Long-Term Military Budgeting: Budanov's report on Russia's plan to spend $1.1 trillion USD on rearmament by 2036 indicates a long-term, significant commitment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Hydropower (Occupied Territories): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок reports "Naftogaz" states that an important gas production facility was attacked last night with "dozens of drones." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The opening of a new hydropower station in Chechnya reinforces RF's focus on energy infrastructure development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Exercise (NEW): TASS publishes video of the Russian Navy conducting "July Storm" operational exercises, involving over 150 ships, 120 aircraft, 10 coastal missile systems, and 15,000 military personnel. This demonstrates significant naval and combined arms capability projection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Strategic Drone/Missile/Aviation Munitions Strikes (Sustained, Adaptive, CRITICAL VOLUME & DEPTH, Now Multi-Warhead, WIDE GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE, Hypersonic Threat Resurfaced, Enhanced Saturation, FAB Use, NEW KINZHAL ON KYIV, Continued KAB use, Confirmed KAB on Kramatorsk, "Harpies" and Krasnoarmeysk UAV C2 targeting, Confirmed "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk/Izium, Orlivka strike by "Harpy" drones, Uragan MLRS strike on Temirovka, Civilian Casualties in Nova Kakhovka, Gas Facilities Attack, Repeated KAB launches in Donetsk/Kharkiv/Sumy, Strike on Kirovohrad Training Ground, Nikopol District Attacks, Rubikon FPV Drone Strikes, Grad MLRS on Dnepr Right Bank, LMUR on UAV C2): RF continues to demonstrate an extremely high capability for widespread, high-volume, multi-vector aerial attacks. The confirmed use of Tu-95MS strategic bombers for cruise missile launches (24 confirmed), alongside continued massed Shahed drone attacks (426 total), and the re-engagement of MiG-31K for Kinzhal ballistic missile use indicates a sustained and robust deep strike capability. Their ability to simultaneously target Northern, Eastern, Central, and significantly Western Ukraine demonstrates coordination and resource availability. The confirmed use of X-101 with cluster munition warheads in Chernivtsi represents an escalation in lethality. The claimed use of FABs on UAF reserves in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates continued air-to-ground precision strike capability. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025. Colonelcassad's claim of a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv confirms tactical adaptation to target UAF domestic defense production. RF has adapted to use KABs against Sumy, Dobropillia and Kramatorsk. Continued use of strike UAVs against Eastern Dnipropetrovsk (Samarivskyi district, now Synelnykivskyi district), Poltava Oblast, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. The confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa indicates RF willingness to hit urban centers without specific military targets, or a failure of precision targeting. Ballistic missile threat confirmed for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and now Dnipropetrop sk Oblast (Samarskyi district). Kotsnews reporting on "Harpies" and their kinetic effect on a village, indicating a new, potent loitering munition or PGMs. MoD Russia also claims destruction of a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad's claim of "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk and associated smoke plume indicates continued widespread use of Shaheds against various targets. Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. Старше Эдды publishes drone video showing an FPV drone strike on a building, followed by a fire, and the Ukrainian flag on a damaged structure. Colonelcassad's video confirming "Harpy" drone use in Orlivka, Sumy Oblast, indicates an adaptive deployment of new drone types for localized strikes. MoD Russia's video shows continued use of MLRS. WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a large explosion and secondary explosions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS crew eliminating enemy targets on the right bank of Dnepr river. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's claim of LMUR use against a UAV command post in Antonivka, Kherson Oblast, indicates the deployment of precision-guided missiles against high-value UAF C2 targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports 7 Shahed UAVs flying towards/through Shyroke/Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports another 7 Shahed UAVs in Beryslav district, heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Олександр Вілкул reports explosions in Kryvyi Rih due to mass Shahed attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ and ASTRA report UAV attacks on Novocherkassk railway station and Novocherkassk GRES (thermal power plant). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) One RF Shahed UAV reported near Posad-Pokrovske (Kherson Oblast). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Shahed UAV impacts reported in Kryvyi Rih, including an enterprise and private homes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF UAVs in Eastern Kharkiv continue movement south. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction and warns of threat of aviation munitions for frontline oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tactical Drone Capabilities (Enhanced, Counter-Drone, FPV Precision, Fiber-Optic Drones, Robotic Ground Vehicles): The reported destruction of a UAF D-20 howitzer in Kherson by an RF FPV drone ("Tuman") demonstrates RF's continued and effective tactical integration of drones for precision engagements against UAF artillery assets. The new focus on Rostov Oblast becoming a leader in UAV development, with military tech transfer to civilian applications and expanded production, highlights RF's strategic intent to massively scale its drone capabilities and industrial base. The FPV drone strike on a UAF soldier in Sumy direction and two injured in Belgorod by FPV drone further demonstrates precision targeting capabilities. MoD Russia's video of "Feniks" drone in action further confirms active development and deployment of tactical drones for reconnaissance and kinetic effects. Colonelcassad's claim of destroying a UAF UAV command post near Chasiv Yar indicates continued RF counter-drone capabilities. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights counter-drone capabilities. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's drone footage from Chasiv Yar direction indicates continued tactical drone operations. Воин DV's video claiming destruction of armored vehicles and personnel in Alexandrovgrad by 14th Guards Spetsnaz and 5th Guards Tank Brigade further emphasizes RF's advanced tactical drone integration for kinetic effects. Narodnaya милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles near Dachne, potentially with drones. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports the downing of a heavy "Baba Yaga" drone in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Nova Kakhovka drone strike, as per WarGonzo, shows RF drone strike capabilities against ground targets. Colonelcassad's video on "Harpy" drones confirms their tactical deployment for strikes on personnel and vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes drone video claiming the 305th Artillery Brigade using a Lancet loitering munition to strike a UAF Dana self-propelled howitzer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a photo message showcasing a new anti-drone system from Rostec, capable of localized signal suppression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок claims destruction of a Ukrainian boat with personnel in Kherson direction using a fiber-optic FPV drone. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS publishes video showing FPV drone operators from "Rubikon" center striking AFU armored vehicles and personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном publishes a video showcasing the 'Omich' (Омич) robotic complex, a tracked ground vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes drone footage showing military vehicles moving along a road, some appearing to be trucks or transport vehicles, with evidence of anti-drone netting/camouflage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Narodnaya милиция ДНР publishes a video claiming successful FPV drone strikes by a special forces unit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes drone footage from the "Centre" group showing explosions targeting enemy vehicles (SUV, tank) and positions (BABA-YAGA drone, STARLINK terminal). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's appeal for FPV drones and Starlink suggests these are critical, in-demand assets for RF frontline units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes drone footage from the "Centre" group on the Krasnoarmeyskoye direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad (NEW): Airbus showcases its tactical VTOL drone 'Flexrotor' for reconnaissance, surveillance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad is showcasing a video of Chinese "FeiLong" series loitering munitions, demonstrating advanced capabilities including swarm operations and precision targeting. This indicates potential future acquisitions or technology transfer for RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): Воин DV publishes thermal/night vision drone footage showing an explosion engulfing a lead vehicle in a convoy on a dirt road, indicating continued kinetic strikes by RF drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare (Aggressive, Psychological, and Exploitative, Adaptive, Expanding Scope, Exploiting Internal Ukrainian Issues, Targeting Foreign Policy Debates, Leveraging US Politics, Internal Political Control, Normalization): RF continues to use its military actions to bolster its narrative. Messaging from milbloggers directly aims to terrorize the population and undermine Ukrainian morale, while simultaneously attempting to project overwhelming force and futility of Ukrainian resistance. Dissemination of claimed UAF equipment losses (e.g., Bradley BMP) and drone losses ("Baba Yaga" drones), including the destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit in South-Donetsk direction and a D-20 howitzer in Kherson, and a UAF UAV command post, and AFU armored vehicles near Dachne, further reinforce this narrative. RF state media leverages UAF drone attacks on Russian territory to portray Russia as a victim and justify its actions. RF sources promote narratives of internal corruption and social friction within Ukraine (now specifically claiming NABU loses Western "roof" due to Trump, and Zelenskyy signed law liquidating anti-corruption bodies). Propaganda focuses on internal RF stability and development. Continued use of historical revisionism. Claims of ground advances (Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Malaya Tokmachka claim, Torske claim), Starytsia, Varachino, Hrushevske, Novotoretske, Krasnoarmeysk infiltration, Konstantinovskoye, Poltavka, Dzerzhinsk, Torske) and effective DRG ambushes in contested areas (Pokrovsk, Krasnoarmeysk) are heavily publicized. RF milbloggers employ cynical/mocking language to demoralize Ukrainian audiences. RF attempts to exploit perceived US weakness in drone tactics. Internal RF information operations counter perceived "traitors." RF channels publish content projecting public support. TASS actively uses claimed UAF POW statements to portray desertion and low morale within Ukrainian ranks. RF is attempting to leverage historical monuments in Moldova to portray Ukraine as allied with Nazis. TASS is attempting to influence US political discourse by amplifying statements like Jeffrey Sachs' comments on Trump and Ukraine. TASS is now actively promoting civilian news, such as Russia's representation at an international music contest, likely to normalize the information environment and divert attention from military operations. The publication of a POW interrogation video by TASS (Yevgeny Popelyshkin) indicates RF's continued and adaptable capability to exploit captured personnel for psychological operations, aiming to sow discord and undermine UAF command effectiveness. RF will continue to leverage civilian testimonials, as seen from Kursk Oblast and Mash on Donbas, and now Andriivka, to portray itself as a victim of Ukrainian aggression and to justify its military actions to its domestic audience. RF is increasingly using cultural and religious narratives to foster internal unity and traditional values, as seen with promotion of Orthodox Christian traditions and news about spiritual-moral culture in schools. TASS claims average of 400 UAF strikes on RF civilian objects per day. The new reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia is likely to be leveraged by RF to show continued European reliance and economic influence. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed to project stability and resilience despite high-level losses. RF milbloggers will likely continue to question the effectiveness of Western AD (e.g., Patriot against Kinzhal). Alex Parker Returns' military recruitment videos demonstrate continued information operations to attract personnel. TASS reporting on detentions for monument desecration in Crimea is part of this narrative. TASS reporting on the appeal of a billionaire in a bribery case also frames the internal legal system as functioning. The FSB's claims of thwarting Ukrainian special services are intended to project internal security effectiveness. The detention of a former presidential candidate's staff member highlights RF's control over its political information space. The new criminal cases against a former Deputy Minister of Defense demonstrate the state's willingness to publicize internal corruption issues. News from Moscow criticizing EU "brain drain" highlights economic information operations. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. TASS reports that the acceptance of applications for IT deferrals from military service has begun. ASTRA reports a pensioner from Izhevsk was sentenced for treason but released due to health. TASS reports State Duma adopted law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, reinforcing the narrative of external threats and justifying internal security measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора reports the author of a Volgograd Telegram channel was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism, demonstrating continued legal enforcement against online content. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on migrant crime in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump, by rejecting Ukraine's NATO membership, swayed it towards negotiations with Russia. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception and suggest US/Ukraine disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном highlights a State Duma Deputy's request to investigate a perfume company for potentially funding the AFU, indicating RF's expanding scope of internal information operations to identify and suppress perceived threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z reports that Ukrainian MP Skorokhod admitted that TCC "beat mobilized people to death" across Ukraine, an RF information operation aimed at creating internal Ukrainian disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns posts an image with text that translates to "The puzzle has come together. Inside information.", which likely refers to an internal RF information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video showing film director Igor Bogomolov, husband of Ksenia Sobchak, calling the war with Ukraine "the luck and happiness of our generation," and noting Putin awarded him the title "Honored Artist of Russia" the next day. This signals the use of cultural figures to bolster pro-war sentiment and justify the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a photo message containing a statement from the former Polish Land Forces Commander Skrzypczak, highlighting his calls to attack Belarus and Kaliningrad, used to vilify foreign military figures and reinforce the narrative of external threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump is likely to visit China soon, and did not exclude talks with Putin during this visit. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception and suggest RF's diplomatic standing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump called on the US Department of Justice to investigate Obama for manipulating intelligence data related to US elections and Russia. This is a direct attempt to leverage US internal political divisions for RF's information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad states that the newly appointed PM Yulia Svrydenko's claim that corruption is exaggerated in Ukrainian society is a lie, continuing the "Ukrainian corruption" narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews publishes a graphic titled "EVENING BELL" with text criticizing Ukrainian authorities. This is a common RF information operation tactic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports the US House Speaker states no sanctions bills against Russia will be considered until Trump requests it, indicating RF's continued influence operations on US foreign policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном posts a photo message with the caption "Гудбай, ЮНЕСКО! Навсегда?", referring to Trump's potential withdrawal of the US from UNESCO, which is a common RF information operation to highlight perceived Western disarray. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the death of musician Ozzy Osbourne, which is a civilian news item, but its dissemination by TASS could be a low-effort attempt to project normalcy and divert attention. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) MoD Russia publishes a video showing a captured AFU serviceman discussing foreign mercenaries. This is a direct RF information operation to create doubt and demoralize Ukrainian forces and their international partners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo illustrating a Duma legislative session, accompanied by text detailing new fines for searching extremist content, including VPNs, and claiming it will reduce fraudulent calls from Ukrainian call centers. This frames internal RF legal actions as a counter to hybrid threats from Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Рыбарь posts a photo message titled "Цена предательства" (The Price of Betrayal) with a stylized graphic, indicating an ongoing information operation focused on loyalty and deterrence against perceived betrayal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's immediate claim of "liquidation" of a UAF brigade commander, contradicting Ukrainian reports, indicates a rapid and adaptive information operation to capitalize on UAF losses, regardless of cause. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine's reporting on the "chief ideologist of Putin" rewriting history indicates a Ukrainian counter-narrative focusing on RF's information manipulation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z reports a Ukrainian MP criticizing anti-corruption protests, which is amplified by RF milbloggers to further push the narrative of Ukrainian internal division. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок posts a narrative on why Russians do not accept the "brutalization" of Ukraine, aiming to justify the conflict to a domestic and potentially international audience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок publishes a video purportedly showing Ukrainians melting down memorial plaques, which is a strong information operation intended to portray Ukrainians as desecrating history and engaging in "Nazism." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Иран claims it does not seek nuclear weapons, but will continue uranium enrichment, a statement RF will leverage in diplomatic messaging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) «Зона СВО» publishes a video titled "Я русский офицер," featuring a Chechen fighter promoting Russian identity and combat operations. This is a targeted propaganda piece to recruit or inspire specific demographics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Russia regrets the US withdrawal from UNESCO, anticipating political and financial consequences. TASS also reports the UNESCO Director-General's statement that the US withdrawal was "expected" and would have no financial consequences is surprising. These statements are part of RF's diplomatic posturing to frame US actions negatively. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that the "Russian Kherson" underground organization claimed that UAF in Kherson Oblast intentionally settles near civilians. This is an RF information operation aimed at portraying UAF as using human shields. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatsiya Z posts a video related to accusations against Maxim Divnich, a Russian figure, which is then framed to criticize the accusers, likely part of an internal Russian information operation to discredit perceived opponents or maintain public support for certain figures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS has published a new video of a surrendered Ukrainian soldier, claiming that Ukraine is sending invalids with prosthetics to fight. This is a new information operation to demoralize UAF and sow disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's recent video of a Russian POW recounting alleged harsh treatment in Ukrainian captivity is a new, active information operation aimed at discrediting Ukrainian forces and potentially influencing international bodies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): RF milbloggers are publishing video of Russian military training African officers with motivational speeches. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): TASS publishes new video of a captured Ukrainian soldier claiming commanders promised "girls" for successful mission completion, indicating a new line of psychological operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS quotes Ukrainian security sources claiming that some mercenaries terminated their contracts after encountering the frontline. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS publishes video of a captured Ukrainian officer claiming UAF sent soldiers to their deaths to create passage for "normal" troops. This is a new RF information operation to discredit UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports Trump stated that Kyiv likely did not spend all the money allocated by the US for arms purchases. This is a new RF information operation to question US aid to Ukraine and sow doubt. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Artillery Systems (New): Colonelcassad's claim of the use of 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from North Korea indicates a continued and potentially expanding capability to field new or additional artillery systems. MoD Russia's video confirms Uragan MLRS use. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS firing rockets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports continued RF use of artillery and FPV drones in Nikopol district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS crew eliminating enemy targets on the right bank of Dnepr river. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Border Operations: The identified "Anvar" unit operating in Sumy/Chernihiv border regions demonstrates RF's persistent capability for localized reconnaissance and targeting operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in Chernihiv Oblast, and UAVs approaching Nizhyn. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Igor Artamonov reports a UAV threat on Yelets and Yelets district in Lipetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): Colonelcassad publishes new video of "Anvar" unit operating in the border areas of Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts, showing reconnaissance and drone strikes on UAF positions, including a 120-mm mortar position. This confirms continued cross-border reconnaissance and kinetic activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Legal Measures & Internal Control: TASS reporting on the in absentia charging of a blogger for promoting terrorism in Dagestan indicates RF's continued capability and willingness to use legal mechanisms to control internal narratives. The Khabarovsk Krai Police reporting on a criminal case indicates continued focus on domestic law and order. The detention of a hacker in Novosibirsk indicates continued focus on cyber security. TASS reports searches at Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko's home, suggesting internal anti-corruption or security operations. "Два майора" discusses sentencing related to illegal migration, indicating internal security focus. The reporting on the death of the Supreme Court Chairman highlights the functioning of the RF legal system. The detentions in Crimea for monument desecration underscore RF's efforts to control historical narratives. The detention of a migrant in Tyumen and the appeal of a billionaire in a bribery case indicate application of internal law enforcement. The FSB's claims of thwarting Ukrainian special services are intended to project internal security effectiveness. The detention of a former presidential candidate's staff member highlights RF's control over its political information space. The new criminal cases against a former Deputy Minister of Defense for corruption highlight RF's legal mechanisms for internal accountability. Putin's toughening of rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports indicates increased state control over economic interfaces. RF MFA's expanded list of banned EU officials is another example of diplomatic-legal measures. Raids on "Baza" media outlet, and the subsequent arrest of its editor-in-chief, signify an escalated and adaptive control over internal information flows and suppression of independent media. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. TASS reports that the acceptance of applications for IT deferrals from military service has begun. ASTRA reports a pensioner from Izhevsk was sentenced for treason but released due to health. TASS reports State Duma adopted law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. (UPDATE): TASS reports 12 UAVs were destroyed overnight over Tula Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Duma adopted an amendment fining citizens for disclosing state secrets in media. TASS reports no plans to block foreign messengers, but compliance with requirements. TASS reports investigators opened a criminal case against an internet channel administrator for extortion and public justification of terrorism. TASS reports the military court sentenced Lithuanian Bartkevichius to 23 years in absentia for desecrating a military grave and other terror-related crimes in Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, indicating proactive legal measures against perceived threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора reports the author of a Volgograd Telegram channel was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism, demonstrating continued legal enforcement against online content. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the chief editor of the Ryazan online publication "Svoy Kolokolny" (Svoy kolokolnya) Komarov was detained in an extortion case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports a local resident was detained in Veliky Novgorod for planning to join the "Russian Volunteer Corps", a Ukrainian organization banned in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a draft law for year-round conscription has been submitted to the State Duma. This indicates RF is formalizing and potentially expanding its conscription system to sustain personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы publishes a photo message stating a draft law for year-round military conscription has been submitted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора publishes video claiming a "PLO-OPG" (presumably criminal group) was exposed in Blagoveshchensk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the arrest of Konstantin Kuranov, Minister of Transport and Road Management for Novgorod Oblast, on bribery charges. ASTRA provides photo confirmation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports the arrest of Konstantin Kuranov, Minister of Transport and Road Management of Novgorod Oblast, for bribery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports blogger Dud is заочно (in absentia) accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports Yuri Dud is заочно (in absentia) accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo message stating the State Duma has approved a law to block communications for subscribers with frozen bank accounts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes a photo message related to the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that a second suspect, producer Tatyana Lukyanova, has been identified in the case of the Baza editor-in-chief. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that the adopted law on terminating advance payments for mobile operators does not contain norms for blocking communications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS and ASTRA report the return of two medically-needing RF servicemen from Ukraine, signaling functioning POW exchange mechanisms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The law on NABU and SAP being published in the Rada's newspaper means it has legally come into force. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports pediatrician Nadezhda Buyanova, convicted for "fakes" about RF Armed Forces, is in the same penal colony as director Evgenia Berkovich. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports the US National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) was subjected to a hacker attack. This is a significant cyber incident against a critical US national security entity that RF will likely monitor and potentially leverage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): Police of Khabarovsk Krai publish video messages related to domestic law enforcement, indicating continued focus on internal stability and security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports a person died and nine were injured in a residential building fire in Moscow, which is a domestic incident but reflects on internal security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Counter-UAV Capabilities: The successful repulsion of UAV attacks in Rostov-on-Don, Millerovo, Donetsk (Rostov Oblast), and Azov district, as well as three UAVs over Tula Oblast, indicates RF's continued capability to defend against UAF drone incursions. RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight, including nine over Bryansk Oblast. The FPV drone attack in Belgorod and on Samara Oblast indicates that while RF has AD capabilities, UAF drones can still penetrate and cause damage. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights counter-drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a video showing a military aircraft, likely a fighter jet, in flight during low-light conditions. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a photo message showcasing a new anti-drone system from Rostec, capable of localized signal suppression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS and ASTRA report that RF AD forces destroyed 51 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions between 21:00 and 23:40 MSK on July 22. This is a very high claimed number. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): TASS reports 12 UAVs were destroyed overnight over Tula Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Port Operations in Occupied Territories: The continued operation of Mariupol port, even if understaffed, demonstrates RF's capability to restore and utilize critical infrastructure in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Projection: The escort operation by the Steregushchiy-class corvette "Boykiy" demonstrates RF's capability to project naval power and secure logistical routes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): RF milbloggers are publishing video of Russian military training African officers with motivational speeches, with a naval vessel in the background. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • ELINT Capabilities: Colonelcassad's video claiming successful UAF liquidation via radio intercepts indicates RF possesses and utilizes effective Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) capabilities for targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): Colonelcassad publishes video of a special forces unit operating in an unspecified area, indicating advanced capabilities in targeting, including enemy positions, equipment, and drones, with high precision and effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Maneuver Capability (Tactical): TASS video showing an RF APC maneuvering in open terrain indicates continued tactical ground force mobility. Басурин о главном's report of Russian reconnaissance entering Krasnoarmeysk indicates a capability for deep infiltration by special groups. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video confirms Russian reconnaissance and DRG activity in Krasnoarmeysk. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Сливочный каприз" publishes video of a destroyed settlement with a person carrying a Russian flag, captioned "Konstantinovka - Belaya Gora," suggesting RF ground presence and tactical gains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном publishes video claiming "underground forces" are burning UAF SUVs from Kramatorsk to Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Z комитет + карта СВО publishes a tactical map of the Krasnoarmeyskoye direction, indicating areas of control and advances around #Suvorovo. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF advances in Konstantinovskoye and Poltavka directions confirm continued ground pressure and advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Рыбарь's tactical maps indicate continued RF ground operations and advances in the Konstantinovka and Pokrovsko-Mirnogradske directions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок publishes a tactical map for the Dzerzhinsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes a video showing an RF serviceman raising a Russian flag in Belaya Gora, confirming RF presence and likely consolidation of control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z publishes aerial reconnaissance footage of a rural area, indicating military activity, explosions, and damaged buildings, focused on Chaiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video claiming RF DRG activity on the road to Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes drone footage from the "Centre" group on the Krasnoarmeyskoye direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Long-Term Military Budgeting: Budanov's report on Russia's plan to spend $1.1 trillion USD on rearmament by 2036 indicates a long-term, significant commitment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Hydropower (Occupied Territories): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок reports "Naftogaz" states that an important gas production facility was attacked last night with "dozens of drones." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The opening of a new hydropower station in Chechnya reinforces RF's focus on energy infrastructure development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Exercise (NEW): TASS publishes video of the Russian Navy conducting "July Storm" operational exercises, involving over 150 ships, 120 aircraft, 10 coastal missile systems, and 15,000 military personnel. This demonstrates significant naval and combined arms capability projection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Recent tactical changes or adaptations

• Geographic Expansion into Western Ukraine, Multi-Platform Coordination & Diversionary Tactics (CRITICAL - Including Hypersonic Missile & Cluster Munitions, New FAB Use, NEW KINZHAL ON KYIV, Continued KAB use, Confirmed KAB on Kramatorsk, "Harpies" and Krasnoarmeysk UAV C2 targeting, Confirmed "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk/Izium, Orlivka strike by "Harpy" drones, Uragan MLRS strike on Temirovka, Civilian Casualties in Nova Kakhovka, Gas Facilities Attack, Repeated KAB launches in Donetsk/Kharkiv/Sumy, Strike on Kirovohrad Training Ground, Nikopol District Attacks, Rubikon FPV Drone Strikes, Grad MLRS on Dnepr Right Bank, LMUR on UAV C2): Expansion of strategic missile strikes deep into Western Ukraine concurrently with Shahed waves, and re-engagement of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles from MiG-31K targeting deep Western Ukraine and now Kyiv, indicates continued and enhanced adaptation of multi-platform, coordinated deep strikes. Confirmed use of X-101 with cluster munition warheads in Chernivtsi is a critical tactical adaptation. Claimed use of FABs on UAF reserves in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast suggests expansion of precision aviation strikes into central Ukraine. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025. Colonelcassad's claim of a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv confirms tactical adaptation to target UAF domestic defense production. RF has adapted to use KABs against Sumy, Dobropillia and Kramatorsk. Continued use of strike UAVs against Eastern Dnipropetrovsk (Samarivskyi district, now Synelnykivskyi district), Poltava Oblast, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. The confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa indicates RF willingness to hit urban centers without specific military targets, or a failure of precision targeting. Ballistic missile threat confirmed for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and now Dnipropetrop sk Oblast (Samarskyi district). Kotsnews reporting on "Harpies" indicates adaptation to new PGM/loitering munitions. MoD Russia's claim of destroying a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad's claim of "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk and associated smoke plume indicates continued widespread use of Shaheds against various targets. Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. Старше Эдды publishes drone video showing an FPV drone strike on a building, followed by a fire, and the Ukrainian flag on a damaged structure. Colonelcassad's video confirming "Harpy" drone use in Orlivka, Sumy Oblast, indicates an adaptive deployment of new drone types for localized strikes. MoD Russia's video shows continued use of MLRS. WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports RF attacked Sumy with drones in daylight, damaging a medical facility and playground. This indicates an adaptive change to daylight drone attacks on civilian areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts, confirming continued and adaptive use of guided bombs against these regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes video showing residents of Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, visually monitoring a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike on a Ukrainian "occupation formation" object. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) claims a powerful strike on a UAF training ground in Kirovohrad Oblast, indicating adaptive targeting of UAF training infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports continued RF use of artillery and FPV drones in Nikopol district, confirming adaptive mixed kinetic attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS publishes video showing FPV drone operators from "Rubikon" center striking AFU armored vehicles and personnel. This highlights continued RF kinetic adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV reports RF forces active in Krasnoarmeysk direction, claiming to disable Starlink communications for 25th Airborne Brigade. This indicates a new tactical adaptation to disrupt UAF communications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a large explosion and secondary explosions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS crew eliminating enemy targets on the right bank of Dnepr river. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Narodnaya милиция ДНР publishes a video claiming successful FPV drone strikes by a special forces unit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes drone footage from the "Centre" group showing explosions targeting enemy vehicles (SUV, tank) and positions (BABA-YAGA drone, STARLINK terminal), indicating adaptive targeting and effective engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's use of LMURs against a UAF UAV command post in Antonivka, Kherson Oblast, demonstrates an adaptive tactical shift to target UAF C2 nodes for drones with precision-guided munitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The introduction of an air danger regime in Lipetsk Oblast suggests RF is preparing for or responding to UAF deep operations in the border regions, which could impact RF offensive planning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) KAB launches on Sumy Oblast confirmed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAV threat declared for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Enemy UAVs from Sumy Oblast are entering northeastern Poltava Oblast, heading southwest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Enemy UAVs from western Kherson Oblast are heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Missile danger for Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports 7 Shahed UAVs flying towards/through Shyroke/Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports another 7 Shahed UAVs in Beryslav district, heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Олександр Вілкул reports explosions in Kryvyi Rih due to mass Shahed attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ and ASTRA report UAV attacks on Novocherkassk railway station and Novocherkassk GRES (thermal power plant). This represents a significant tactical adaptation to target RF energy infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Shahed UAV impacts reported in Kryvyi Rih, including an enterprise and private homes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF UAVs in Eastern Kharkiv continue movement south. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction and warns of threat of aviation munitions for frontline oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): Воин DV publishes thermal/night vision drone footage showing an explosion engulfing a lead vehicle in a convoy on a dirt road, indicating continued kinetic strikes by RF drones against UAF logistics/personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Increased Shahed Volume on Kyiv, Southern Ukraine, and now Kharkiv: Increase in Shahed UAVs targeting Kyiv, emergence of new Shahed groups in Black Sea towards Southern Ukraine, and new groups towards Kharkiv indicates intent to increase saturation. New Shahed threat for Dnipropetrovsk indicates continued spread of drone activity. Alex Parker Returns explicitly states intent to use "Geraniums" (Shaheds) on the frontline due to increased production. Further Shahed activity now reported heading towards Pavlohrad from Zaporizhzhia Oblast and new groups inbound to Mykolaiv and Odesa. The confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa highlights continued adaptive targeting. Сили оборони Півдня України reports continued Shahed use in the Southern direction. RF milblogger blaming UAF AD for civilian damage in Odesa is a new adaptive information tactic. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Air Force reports a likely reconnaissance UAV heading north towards Sumy city, indicating adaptive reconnaissance efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Enemy strike UAVs detected in southeastern Sumy Oblast, heading west. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) General message on Shahed movements received. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports on the movement of enemy UAVs, confirming ongoing Shahed activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) One RF Shahed UAV reported near Posad-Pokrovske (Kherson Oblast). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Shahed UAV impacts reported in Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New groups of UAVs detected. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Updated data on Shahed movements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAV threat lifted for all regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ballistic Missile Re-engagement on Kyiv and Hypersonic Missile on Western Ukraine and NOW Kyiv: Re-engagement of ballistic missiles on Kyiv and use of Kinzhal hypersonic missile on Ivano-Frankivsk and now Kyiv indicates escalation in munitions. Latest ballistic missile threat for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Dnipropetrop sk Oblast (Samarskyi district) indicates continued targeting. Ballistic missile threat for Kyiv declared from Northeast (now lifted). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports high-speed target from Kursk Oblast heading southwest in Sumy Oblast. Ballistic missile threat lifted for all areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Operations (Exploitative & Adaptive, Internal Focus, Expanding to US Internal Politics, Information Control Escalation, Targeting Cultural Figures, Leveraging US Politics, Internal Political Control, Normalization): RF adapted its information operations to exploit UAF deep strikes on Moscow, using lifting of airport restrictions as propaganda, while intensifying demoralizing rhetoric. RF state media disseminating video of claimed ground operations and drone intercept claims. RF milbloggers adapting to exploit non-military events for propaganda. RF is adapting its internal propaganda to address perceived issues and maintain support, including through cultural events and promoting civilian services. RF is highlighting US statements on Iran to justify its own geopolitical positioning. Introduction of civilian normalization narratives (music contest, sports/playground development, teacher compensation, airport normalization, funeral of Yuri Kara, Chechen festival, new Moskvich car sales, airport recreation zones, 4-day work week benefits, 4-day work week proven beneficial, IT deferrals, Supreme Court memorial, Yuri Kara funeral, domestic banana saplings) to divert attention. The rapid dissemination of the captured UAF soldier's statement by TASS demonstrates RF's immediate adaptation of new opportunities for psychological warfare. The deployment of civilian testimonials about alleged UAF shelling in border regions and now from conflict-affected Donbas (Mash on Donbas) and Andriivka is a new adaptation for RF information operations. RF is increasingly using cultural and religious narratives to foster internal unity and support for its operations. TASS claims average of 400 UAF strikes on RF civilian objects per day. The new reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia is likely to be leveraged by RF. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed to project stability. News about Moscow's urban development reinforces the normalcy narrative. Putin's toughening of foreign vessel access is presented as a measure for national security. TASS reports on RF AI development. Север.Реалии reports on "Spiritual-Moral Culture" in schools. The recovery of Winelab stores from a cyberattack is used to project resilience. The funeral of Yuri Kara and the Chechen cultural festival are used for normalization. TASS reports the new Moskvich-8 car is on sale for 2.98 million rubles. TASS reports the Sheremetyevo airport is organizing recreation zones for passengers. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. Новости Москвы reports scientists have proven a four-day work week without salary reduction improves employee well-being. TASS reports the State Duma has approved the transfer of data regarding migrant children enrollment in schools to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, framing this as a measure of control and order. TASS reporting on the death of a State Duma Deputy from illness is a part of this internal political framing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports actor Steven Seagal has left one of his last projects in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы publishes a review of a Huawei MatePad Pro, indicating internal focus on technology and consumer goods. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Глеб Никитин posts positive news about historical real estate sales, aiming to project internal stability and economic activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports that the head of RF Digital Development Ministry, Maksut Shadayev, states Russia has fully deployed 5G networks in 45 regions. This promotes a narrative of technological advancement and stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы posts a video showing water puddles and cleaning operations inside a public building. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы posts a video showing heavy rain and flooded streets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a video that is an advertisement for online gambling, which could be seen as a source of revenue or distraction in the domestic context. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video showing film director Igor Bogomolov, husband of Ksenia Sobchak, calling the war with Ukraine "the luck and happiness of our generation," and noting Putin awarded him the title "Honored Artist of Russia" the next day. This signals the use of cultural figures to bolster pro-war sentiment and justify the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports 517 flights were canceled at Moscow and St. Petersburg airports between July 19-22, affecting 75,000 passengers. This is a significant piece of information that challenges the narrative of stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports doctors in Voronezh saved a child, which serves as a normalization narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that Kartapolov (Likely Duma Deputy Andrey Kartapolov) states year-round conscription will not increase the number of conscripts, but rather streamline the work of military commissariats. This is an adaptive message to alleviate potential public anxiety about continuous mobilization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The immediate air danger regime in Lipetsk Oblast, while a reactive measure, could be framed internally by RF as proactive protection of its citizens, reinforcing stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports all previously delayed trains of the "Grand Service Express" company have returned to their schedule, contributing to the normalcy narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes a photo message related to the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation, which is internal news designed to project normalcy and stability within the Russian state apparatus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The US-Philippines trade deal will be used by RF sources to comment on US foreign policy, potentially to highlight what they perceive as US transactional diplomacy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports a trilateral meeting in Tehran between representatives of Iran, RF, and China, primarily focused on Iran's nuclear program and sanctions relief. They agreed to continue consultations. This highlights RF's diplomatic efforts to strengthen alliances outside the Western sphere, adapting to geopolitical shifts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок posts a narrative on why Russians do not accept the "brutalization" of Ukraine, aiming to justify the conflict to a domestic and potentially international audience, adapting to counter Western views. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок publishes a video purportedly showing Ukrainians melting down memorial plaques, which is a strong information operation intended to portray Ukrainians as desecrating history and engaging in "Nazism." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Иран claims it does not seek nuclear weapons, but will continue uranium enrichment, a statement RF will leverage in diplomatic messaging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) «Зона СВО» publishes a video titled "Я русский офицер," featuring a Chechen fighter promoting Russian identity and combat operations. This is a targeted propaganda piece to recruit or inspire specific demographics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Russia regrets the US withdrawal from UNESCO, anticipating political and financial consequences. TASS also reports the UNESCO Director-General's statement that the US withdrawal was "expected" and would have no financial consequences is surprising. These statements are part of RF's diplomatic posturing to frame US actions negatively. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports on the unveiling of a mural in Stavropol featuring journalist Semyon Eremin, who died during reporting in the SMO zone. This is a new method for internal propaganda, lionizing fallen journalists who report favorably on RF operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS has published a new video of a surrendered Ukrainian soldier, claiming that Ukraine is sending invalids with prosthetics to fight. This is a new information operation to demoralize UAF and sow disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatsiya Z posts a video related to accusations against Maxim Divnich, a Russian figure, which is then framed to criticize the accusers, likely part of an internal Russian information operation to discredit perceived opponents or maintain public support for certain figures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS has published a new video of a surrendered Ukrainian soldier, claiming that Ukraine is sending invalids with prosthetics to fight. This is a new information operation to demoralize UAF and sow disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's recent video of a Russian POW recounting alleged harsh treatment in Ukrainian captivity is a new, active information operation aimed at discrediting Ukrainian forces and potentially influencing international bodies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): RF milbloggers are publishing video of Russian military training African officers with motivational speeches. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): TASS publishes new video of a captured Ukrainian soldier claiming commanders promised "girls" for successful mission completion, indicating a new line of psychological operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS quotes Ukrainian security sources claiming that some mercenaries terminated their contracts after encountering the frontline. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS publishes video of a captured Ukrainian officer claiming UAF sent soldiers to their deaths to create passage for "normal" troops. This is a new RF information operation to discredit UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports Trump stated that Kyiv likely did not spend all the money allocated by the US for arms purchases. This is a new RF information operation to question US aid to Ukraine and sow doubt. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports a person died and nine were injured in a residential building fire in Moscow, which RF will likely report as a domestic incident unrelated to conflict, maintaining normalcy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "Disunity within Ukraine" Narrative: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" attempts to project internal disunity. Alex Parker Returns posts video related to TCC and Romani people, and is now actively promoting a narrative about UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky having his parents treated in Moscow. RF claims Ukraine has run out of cemetery space. The dissemination of footage showing a violent TCC detention in Chernih by Colonelcassad indicates RF's continued and immediate adaptation to exploit internal Ukrainian social tensions. TASS's unverified claim of a UK-trained UAF unit being destroyed in Dnipropetrovsk is another example. Операция Z's claim about NABU losing Western "roof" due to Trump is a direct adaptive disinformation campaign. TASS report claiming Latin American mercenaries fled Alexandrovgrad is an adaptive narrative. TASS reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. Операция Z's information operation about "traitors-Nazis from Russia" being handed over by Kyiv and committing suicide aims to manage internal personnel issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны report Western publications are again talking about Zelenskyy's authoritarianism after the curtailment of NABU powers, explicitly linking it to Western concerns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns claim Zelenskyy has signed the law liquidating the independence of anti-corruption bodies, reinforcing the narrative that the legislation has been enacted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z reports that Ukrainian MP Skorokhod admitted that TCC "beat mobilized people to death" across Ukraine, an RF information operation aimed at creating internal Ukrainian disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 publishes a photo with the caption "🤔 Attack on anti-corruption activities or 'good intentions'?", framing the debate around anti-corruption as a potential attack on it, which feeds into the disunity narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad states that the newly appointed PM Yulia Svrydenko's claim that corruption is exaggerated in Ukrainian society is a lie, continuing the "Ukrainian corruption" narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes a video of a Russian conscript detailing poor treatment and being forced into assault roles, which, while from an RF source, highlights potential for internal military disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники publishes a video titled "❗️«Мы подписали контракт под давлением»: как обманывают срочников". This video features three young men, appearing to be soldiers, discussing their contract terms, difficulties terminating it, and alleged pressure, directly reinforcing the RF narrative of poor treatment and coercion within military service. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes a video showing a captured AFU serviceman discussing foreign mercenaries. This is a direct RF information operation to create doubt and demoralize Ukrainian forces and their international partners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z reports a Ukrainian MP criticizing anti-corruption protests, which is amplified by RF milbloggers to further push the narrative of Ukrainian internal division. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The crash of a Mirage 2000 due to technical malfunction is immediately leveraged by RF milbloggers to claim it was shot down (e.g., Alex Parker Returns claiming F-16 shot down in Rivne Oblast), demonstrating RF's rapid adaptation to exploit UAF losses for propaganda purposes, regardless of the actual cause. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad and Операция Z immediately amplified the death of Maksym Kazban, commander of the National Police assault brigade "Lyut", as a "liquidation" or "self-liquidation," attempting to spin a UAF loss, even if not combat-related. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 highlights Zelenskyy's vote on NABU/SAP, framing it as a betrayal of his original anti-corruption stance, amplifying dissent within Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Кирил Буданов comments on the NABU and SAP law, stating the nation loses if torn by internal contradictions, which is a candid assessment but also could be framed as a sign of internal discord by RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that "Russian Kherson" claimed UAF in Kherson Oblast intentionally settles near civilians. This is an RF information operation aimed at portraying UAF as using human shields. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS has published a new video of a surrendered Ukrainian soldier, claiming that Ukraine is sending invalids with prosthetics to fight. This is a new information operation to demoralize UAF and sow disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's recent video of a Russian POW recounting alleged harsh treatment in Ukrainian captivity is a new, active information operation aimed at discrediting Ukrainian forces and potentially influencing international bodies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): RF milbloggers are publishing video of Russian military training African officers with motivational speeches. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): TASS publishes new video of a captured Ukrainian soldier claiming commanders promised "girls" for successful mission completion, indicating a new line of psychological operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS quotes Ukrainian security sources claiming that some mercenaries terminated their contracts after encountering the frontline. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS publishes video of a captured Ukrainian officer claiming UAF sent soldiers to their deaths to create passage for "normal" troops. This is a new RF information operation to discredit UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Exercise (NEW): TASS publishes video of the Russian Navy conducting "July Storm" operational exercises, involving over 150 ships, 120 aircraft, 10 coastal missile systems, and 15,000 military personnel. This demonstrates significant naval and combined arms capability projection, indicating continued RF capacity for large-scale military exercises. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Logistics and sustainment status

• RF Logistics (Strained, but Adaptable for Deep Strikes): The successful Ukrainian deep strike on the Rovenky logistics hub will likely create a temporary disruption (48-72 hours) in RF supply lines to the southern front. However, RF has demonstrated adaptability in dispersing assets and establishing alternate routes. The continued ability to execute high-volume, multi-vector missile and UAV strikes suggests that their long-range munition production and logistics remain robust, likely prioritizing strategic assets over frontline ground supplies in some areas. The continued use of FPV drones suggests a distributed supply chain for these smaller, but impactful, systems. The appeal for FPV drones and Starlink for frontline units indicates persistent localized supply shortfalls despite overall production capacity. The 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from North Korea suggests a willingness to use foreign military aid to supplement their inventory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Manpower (Persistent Mobilization, Internal Issues): The ongoing legal measures and proposed year-round conscription indicate a sustained effort to maintain force levels. However, concerns about the treatment of conscripts and allegations of coercion (from a captured Russian soldier) point to potential internal morale and discipline issues that could affect sustainment of offensive operations. The public call for humanitarian aid for frontline units, even for basic necessities, indicates continued localized logistical shortfalls at the tactical level. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.4. Command and control effectiveness

• RF C2 (Effective for Deep Strikes, Adaptive): The continued coordination of multi-vector, simultaneous deep strikes across Ukraine demonstrates effective strategic-level C2. The adaptive use of Kinzhal and cluster munitions indicates that intelligence and targeting cycles are responsive. The ability to launch multi-directional Shahed attacks from different launch points (Black Sea, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy Oblasts) indicates decentralized, yet coordinated, tactical C2 for drone operations. The reported disruption of Starlink communications for a UAF brigade in Krasnoarmeysk indicates a sophisticated and adaptive RF EW capability and C2 to deploy it. The ongoing naval exercise "July Storm" demonstrates a continued capacity for large-scale, complex command and control operations involving multiple military branches. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Information C2 (Centralized and Adaptive): RF information operations remain centralized and highly adaptive, quickly exploiting Ukrainian internal issues and foreign policy developments (e.g., NABU/SAP, Trump statements, Mirage crash). The coordinated messaging across state media and milbloggers, including rapid dissemination of POW statements and vilification of foreign figures, points to a robust and responsive information C2 structure. The raids on "Baza" media outlet indicate a decisive C2 response to control internal information flows. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

• 3.1. Ukrainian force posture and readiness

  • Air Defense (AD): AD systems are at high operational tempo, continuously engaging multiple waves of RF aerial threats across the country. UAF claims high interception rates for missiles and UAVs. This indicates strong readiness but also high demand for AD resources. Commitment of new Patriot systems from Germany (conditional on replacement) and additional funding from Norway and Netherlands is critical for sustaining this posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Continued air patrols are indicated by a recent video of a UAF MiG-29 cockpit view. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The loss of a Mirage 2000 due to technical malfunction, while not combat-related, represents a loss of critical air asset and further emphasizes the need for continued foreign military assistance to maintain air superiority. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAF AD successfully neutralized 7 UAVs heading to Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAF AD reports "minus" on the Shaheds towards Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAF Air Force reports lifting of all UAV threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): UAF successfully targeted Novocherkassk railway station and Novocherkassk GRES with UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Forces: UAF units in Eastern and Southern Ukraine are engaged in active defense and repelling RF assaults. UAF forces are making tactical adaptations, such as withdrawing to flanks and maintaining fire control, as seen in Kamyansk. Successful FPV drone operations by various brigades (30th, 60th Mechanized Brigades, "Rarog" Regiment, "Iron Brigade") are inflicting RF personnel and equipment losses, demonstrating effective tactical innovation. The Khartia brigade is engaged in counter-personnel and fuel depot operations in Oskil. Significant reinforcement efforts are underway in Zaporizhzhia, including increasing defense funding and constructing anti-drone roads. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAF 2nd Battalion of the 101st Brigade is actively disrupting RF assault plans near Avdiivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAF is suffering losses in the Toretsk area, indicating sustained combat pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Services: DSNS (State Emergency Service) and local authorities are fully mobilized nationwide, responding to widespread civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. This indicates robust civilian support for the war effort but also highlights the civilian impact of RF strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Domestic Production: Domestic 155-mm Bohdana-BG howitzers entering service indicates progress in self-reliance, but President Zelenskyy's call for 50% domestic production within six months highlights a significant existing gap. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Logistics & Maintenance: Canada's allocation for tank maintenance and the Air Force receiving mobile F-16 maintenance complexes are positive indicators for sustaining complex Western equipment. However, the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade's appeal for EW systems points to ongoing equipment shortfalls. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Personnel: Continued recruitment efforts, including for drone units, and mobilization of convicts (approx. 9500) indicate sustained efforts to maintain force levels, but the video testimony of a former convict points to potential challenges in integration and morale. The death of the commander of the National Police assault brigade "Lyut", Maksym Kazban, in a traffic accident, is a loss of a key leader, regardless of the cause. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) A Russian national who fought for the AFU and was blocked from entering Poland due to expired passport/RF citizenship highlights issues for foreign volunteers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Command & Control: The appointment of Brig. Gen. Hennadiy Shapovalov as new commander of UAF Ground Forces suggests ongoing adjustments within the military leadership structure. President Zelenskyy remains actively engaged in diplomatic and internal policy matters, including negotiations and anti-corruption debates. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The SBU remains committed to eradicating Russian agents and maintaining collaboration with G7 partners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The fluctuating status of bill №12414 on the Verkhovna Rada website indicates internal political maneuvering and potential uncertainty, despite initial reports of signing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The law on NABU and SAP being published in the Rada's "Voice of Ukraine" newspaper confirms its enactment. This is a significant development in internal control and oversight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) President Zelenskyy's statements confirming the anti-corruption infrastructure will work without Russian influence are key control measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zelenskyy has directly addressed the NABU situation with key security and anti-corruption officials. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• 3.2. Recent tactical successes or setbacks

  • Successes:
    • High AD Interception Rates: UAF claims destruction of over 20 missiles and the "overwhelming majority" of drones (344 of 623), highlighting effective AD. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAF AD neutralized 7 UAVs heading to Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAF AD reports "minus" on the Shaheds towards Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAF Air Force reports lifting of all UAV threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): UAF successfully targeted Novocherkassk railway station and Novocherkassk GRES with UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Effective Drone Operations: Numerous reports and videos show successful UAF FPV drone strikes, creating "kill zones," destroying RF mechanized equipment, and hitting personnel, demonstrating tactical advantage in localized engagements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Counter-Battery Actions: Successful targeting of an RF 2A65 Msta-B by UAF 44th Artillery Brigade. HIMARS strikes on an RF S-300 battery, "Nebo-M" radar, and "Big Bird" radar in Belgorod Oblast are significant if verified. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH/MEDIUM)
    • Deep Strike Success: Confirmed successful high-precision strike on a major logistics facility in Rovenky, Luhansk Oblast. SIGINT and thermal imaging from ISR assets indicate significant secondary explosions, consistent with the destruction of large ammunition stockpiles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Ground Robot Medevac: Successful use of ground robots for medical evacuation by 5th Separate Assault Kyiv Brigade demonstrates innovative and life-saving tactical adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Counter-Drone Success: UAF successfully ambushed and destroyed a Ukrainian drone before it could attack. (RF source but suggests UAF counter-drone effectiveness) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Disruption of RF Ground Assaults: UAF 2nd Battalion of the 101st Brigade successfully disrupted RF assault plans near Avdiivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • POW Return: Ukrainian efforts have led to the return of two medically-needing RF servicemen, indicating a functioning prisoner exchange mechanism, which can be leveraged for future exchanges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Targeting of RF Infrastructure: UAV attacks on Novocherkassk railway station and Novocherkassk GRES are a significant UAF success in deep strikes against RF critical infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Setbacks:
    • Tactical Withdrawals: Withdrawal of Defense Forces to flanks in Kamyansk, while adaptive, indicates local pressure and loss of initial positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • RF Ground Advances: DeepState confirms RF advances in several villages in Donetsk Oblast (Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, Voskresenka, Orikhove, Mayak, Zatyhka, Hrushevske) and the claimed liberation of Novotoretske, indicating localized UAF ground setbacks. TASS claims RF advanced near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast, dislodging UAF units. RF sources now claim Russian assault units have dislodged Ukrainian forces from Torske (DNR) and positions in the Serebryansky forestry. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH/MEDIUM) The tactical map from Z комитет + карта СВО further indicates RF advances in the Krasnoarmeyskoye direction, specifically around #Suvorovo, confirming continued UAF ground setbacks in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF advances in Konstantinovskoye and Poltavka directions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Рыбарь's tactical maps indicate continued RF ground operations and advances in the Konstantinovka and Pokrovsko-Mirnogradske directions, signifying UAF setbacks in these areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video claiming RF DRG activity on the road to Pokrovsk. This indicates a potential localized setback or threat to a critical GLOC for UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Civilian Casualties & Infrastructure Damage: Widespread civilian fatalities and injuries, including a child killed in Kramatorsk and a woman in Sumy, and extensive damage to residential and civilian infrastructure in Odesa, Kyiv, and Sumy, indicate RF strikes continue to bypass UAF AD or overwhelm local defenses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Sumy partially without power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Russian claims of Surrender: TASS claims Ukrainian servicemen surrendered in Popov Yar, indicates tactical losses if verified. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) (UPDATE): TASS publishes new video of a captured Ukrainian soldier claiming commanders promised "girls" for successful mission completion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS publishes video of a captured Ukrainian officer claiming UAF sent soldiers to their deaths to create passage for "normal" troops. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Personnel Losses: Reports of "horrible, irreparable and painful loss" in a brigade near Toretsk indicates UAF personnel losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The death of Maksym Kazban, commander of the National Police assault brigade "Lyut", regardless of cause, is a loss of a key leader. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Aircraft Loss: Loss of a Mirage 2000 in Volyn Oblast due to technical malfunction is a setback for UAF air capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Equipment Loss (Abrams claim): RF sources claim destruction of an M1A1SA Abrams tank in Kursk Oblast. If verified, this represents a significant equipment loss. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

• 3.3. Resource requirements and constraints

  • Persistent AD Demand: The high volume and diversity of RF aerial attacks (missiles, hypersonics, Shaheds, KABs) places immense strain on UAF AD resources. Continuous resupply of interceptors and new systems is crucial. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • EW Shortfalls: Urgent requests for EW systems from frontline units highlight a critical vulnerability against RF drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Budgetary Gaps: Ukraine's stated need for $6 billion to cover weapon procurement gaps and $120 billion for next year's defense underscores the significant financial burden and reliance on international aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Manpower Quality: While quantity is addressed by mobilization, concerns about morale and treatment of mobilized convicts could impact combat effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

• 4.1. Propaganda and disinformation campaigns:

  • RF Propaganda (HIGH INTENSITY):
    • Demoralization & Terror: RF continues to publicize civilian casualties from its strikes, directly and indirectly, to inflict psychological pressure (e.g., Kramatorsk, Sumy, Odesa). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Operational Successes: Heavily publicizing claimed ground advances (Popov Yar, Novotoretske, Hrushevske, Bila Hora, Krasnoarmeyskoye direction, Konstantinovskoye, Poltavka, Pokrovsko-Mirnogradske Direction, Dzerzhinsk direction, Torske), successful drone strikes on UAF equipment/personnel, and claims of UAF surrenders to project an image of overwhelming force and inevitable victory. RF milbloggers are quick to claim downing of UAF aircraft, even if contradicted by UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF is actively promoting claims of significant UAV interceptions over its territory (e.g., 51 UAVs downed over RF regions, 12 UAVs over Tula Oblast). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF milbloggers are quick to credit their forces with successful destruction of enemy assets, including dugouts and equipment, in the Krasnoarmeyskoye direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's report on the unveiling of a mural for a deceased journalist who reported from the SMO zone further glorifies the conflict internally. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF milbloggers are highlighting the display of Airbus's Flexrotor drone, emphasizing advanced capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF is claiming destruction of an M1A1SA Abrams tank in Kursk Oblast, which if verified, would be a major propaganda victory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): RF milbloggers are publishing video of Russian military training African officers with motivational speeches, suggesting military prowess and influence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): TASS publishes new video of a captured Ukrainian soldier claiming commanders promised "girls" for successful mission completion, indicating a new line of psychological operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS quotes Ukrainian security sources claiming that some mercenaries terminated their contracts after encountering the frontline. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS publishes video of a captured Ukrainian officer claiming UAF sent soldiers to their deaths to create passage for "normal" troops. This is a new RF information operation to discredit UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): Воин DV publishes thermal/night vision drone footage showing an explosion engulfing a lead vehicle in a convoy, presented as a "compilation of fresh strikes on enemy manpower and vehicles by drone operators of the 35th Army of the Vostok group of forces," aiming to project continued RF tactical success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Internal Ukrainian Disunity: Actively exploiting and amplifying perceived internal Ukrainian issues, such as the NABU/SAP bill controversy, and alleged TCC mistreatment of conscripts, to sow discord and undermine trust in Ukrainian leadership. The narrative that the NABU/SAP bill "liquidates independence of anti-corruption bodies" is a key vector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The testimony of a captured AFU serviceman discussing foreign mercenaries is a new vector to sow doubt about UAF composition and foreign support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF milbloggers are quick to capitalize on the death of Maksym Kazban, commander of the National Police assault brigade "Lyut", by misrepresenting his death as "liquidation" or "self-liquidation" to imply combat success or internal UAF instability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF milbloggers are spreading claims of Ukrainians melting down memorial plaques from Soviet soldiers' mass graves to portray Ukraine as desecrating history and engaging in "Nazism." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF milbloggers are pushing the narrative that Europe and the West do not understand why Russians cannot reconcile with the "capture and brutalization" of Ukraine, aimed at justifying the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z is actively amplifying the protests against the NABU/SAP law in Ukraine, framing them as widespread anger against Zelenskyy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Старше Эдды is engaging in highly biased and aggressive rhetoric regarding the Ukrainian protests, predicting violent suppression and using dehumanizing language, aiming to sow fear and internal discord. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 highlights Zelenskyy's vote on NABU/SAP, framing it as a betrayal of his original anti-corruption stance, amplifying dissent within Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that "Russian Kherson" claimed UAF in Kherson Oblast intentionally settles near civilians. This is an RF information operation aimed at portraying UAF as using human shields. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatsiya Z posts a video related to accusations against Maxim Divnich, a Russian figure, which is then framed to criticize the accusers, likely part of an internal Russian information operation to discredit perceived opponents or maintain public support for certain figures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS has published a new video of a surrendered Ukrainian soldier, claiming that Ukraine is sending invalids with prosthetics to fight. This is a new information operation to demoralize UAF and sow disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS quotes The Economist on EU efforts to stop the anti-corruption law in Kyiv, highlighting a negative international perception. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's recent video of a Russian POW recounting alleged harsh treatment in Ukrainian captivity is a new, active information operation aimed at discrediting Ukrainian forces and potentially influencing international bodies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports pediatrician Nadezhda Buyanova, convicted for "fakes" about RF Armed Forces, is in the same penal colony as director Evgenia Berkovich. This is leveraged to show continued suppression of dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • US Political Influence: RF sources are actively attempting to influence Western political discourse, particularly in the US, by amplifying statements like the US House Speaker's comment on sanctions needing Trump's approval, to suggest US divisions and unreliable support for Ukraine. RF milbloggers are also exploiting US State Department statements on Trump's Ukraine timeline. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The US-Philippines trade deal will be used by RF sources to comment on US foreign policy, potentially to highlight what they perceive as US transactional diplomacy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): RBC-Ukraine reports Trump announced trade deals with three countries, potentially signaling a new foreign policy approach that RF could leverage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS reports Trump stated that Kyiv likely did not spend all the money allocated by the US for arms purchases. This is a new RF information operation to question US aid to Ukraine and sow doubt about its effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): RBC-Ukraine reports Trump accused Obama of attempting a "coup" while in power. RF will likely amplify this to portray US internal political instability and discredit the democratic process. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Normalization: Continued efforts to normalize life in Russia and occupied territories, despite the war, through reporting on civilian events (e.g., Ozzy Osbourne's death, Kamchatka food poisoning, Gold Futures market data, Moscow residential fire), economic plans, and infrastructure projects, aiming to project stability and divert attention from the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The RF Ministry of Defense posting news about its Supreme Court further contributes to normalizing the information environment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The opening of a new hydropower station in Chechnya also contributes to this normalcy narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Moscow's plans for a new highway contribute to the normalcy narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The end of free electric car charging in Moscow aims to project normalcy and economic sustainability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF efforts to highlight internal discussions on countering UAVs in Moscow aim to reassure the public of state effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The Central Bank's potential interest rate cut will be framed as a sign of economic stability and recovery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reporting on Duma discussions about support for passengers with children during flight delays further contributes to a normalcy narrative by focusing on internal social issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Historical Revisionism: Continued efforts to vilify foreign military figures (e.g., Polish General Skrzypczak) and use historical narratives to justify the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Anti-Western Narrative: RF MFA statements consistently portray Western countries as prolonging the conflict and using Ukraine as a tool. RF milbloggers amplify any perceived Western weakness or division (e.g., Trump's stance on NATO). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF milbloggers continue to push the narrative of Western incomprehension of Russia's motivations in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Internal Legal Actions as Hybrid Warfare: RF media frames new internal laws (e.g., fines for extremist content, VPNs) as direct countermeasures to Ukrainian hybrid operations (e.g., call centers). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Chechen Propaganda: «Зона СВО» uses a Chechen officer to project a unified, determined narrative from within RF military ranks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UNESCO narrative: TASS's statements on the US withdrawal from UNESCO are part of a broader RF information operation to criticize US international policy and highlight perceived inconsistencies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Cyberattack on US Entity (NEW): TASS reports a cyberattack on the US National Nuclear Security Administration. RF will likely leverage this to demonstrate US vulnerabilities or imply its own cyber capabilities without claiming direct responsibility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Khabarovsk Police Internal Focus (NEW): Police of Khabarovsk Krai publishing domestic law enforcement videos, irrelevant to the war, is a soft power information operation to project internal stability and order. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukrainian Propaganda (HIGH INTENSITY):
    • Resilience & Defiance: Emphasizing high AD interception rates, humanitarian responses, and successful tactical engagements to maintain public morale and demonstrate effective resistance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • RF Atrocities: Highlighting civilian casualties and infrastructure destruction caused by RF strikes to galvanize international support and condemn RF actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • International Support: Regularly reporting on military and financial aid from Western partners to underscore strong international backing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Anti-Corruption Efforts: Despite controversies (NABU/SAP bill), Ukrainian sources emphasize continued efforts to combat corruption within institutions to maintain international trust. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) SBU Head Maliuk's meeting with G7 ambassadors explicitly addressing the NABU situation is part of the counter-narrative to maintain international trust. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The fluctuating status of the NABU/SAP bill will prolong public uncertainty and scrutiny, but also demonstrates a degree of internal political process. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Budanov's statement on the NABU/SAP law, while critical, frames the issue as an internal challenge that Ukraine must overcome for national unity, presenting a more nuanced and responsible message compared to RF's exploitation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) President Zelenskyy's statements confirming the anti-corruption infrastructure will work without Russian influence are key control measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zelenskyy has directly addressed the NABU situation with key security and anti-corruption officials. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Discrediting RF: Highlighting internal Russian issues, such as airport disruptions, flooding, and alleged mistreatment of conscripts and internal repression (media crackdowns, arrests), to undermine RF's image of stability and capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Ukrainian sources also directly counter RF disinformation, as seen in the reporting on the "chief ideologist of Putin" rewriting history. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Ukrainian sources actively counter RF claims regarding UAF command casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Ukrainian sources highlight challenges faced by Russian soldiers regarding equipment and supply. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Ukrainian sources immediately report on UAF drone attacks on RF critical infrastructure, highlighting deep strike capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• 4.2. Public sentiment and morale factors:

  • Ukraine:
    • Resilience and Defiance (High): Despite widespread and intense RF strikes, public sentiment appears to remain largely resilient. The organized protests in Kyiv, Dnipro, and Lviv against the NABU/SAP bill, while internal political dissent, demonstrate a continued belief in democratic processes and accountability, even amidst war. This suggests an active civil society and a commitment to reform. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Protests continue in Kyiv despite curfew indicate strong public determination. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Trauma from Civilian Casualties (High): The confirmed civilian fatalities and injuries, including a child killed in Kramatorsk and a woman in Sumy, and widespread infrastructure damage in Odesa, Kyiv, and Sumy, are causing significant public trauma. This leads to increased demand for emergency services and humanitarian aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Sumy being partially without power will impact local morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Mobilization Concerns (Medium): The reported violent TCC detention in Chernihiv and the testimony of a former convict regarding mistreatment in the Russian military (which could be used by UAF for propaganda, but still reflects on the general challenges of mobilization) indicate some public apprehension and friction regarding mobilization efforts. This warrants continued monitoring to prevent wider demoralization. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
    • Trust in Institutions (Mixed): The public protests against the NABU/SAP bill suggest a degree of distrust or concern regarding government actions and potential undermining of anti-corruption efforts. The G7 ambassadors' alarm underscores this. The fluctuating status of the NABU/SAP bill will likely prolong public uncertainty and scrutiny. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The law on NABU and SAP being published in the Rada's "Voice of Ukraine" newspaper, despite protests and previous confusion, will likely heighten public scrutiny of the government's commitment to anti-corruption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Pride in Military (High): Positive media coverage of UAF tactical successes (drone operations, counter-battery, ground robot use, AD interceptions, domestic production) and international support (Patriot, F-16 maintenance) likely boosts public morale and pride in the armed forces. The continuous emphasis on "Ukrainian heroes" and high-level visits to the front reinforce this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Weather Impact (Medium): Heavy rains and flooding in Kyiv and Odesa impact daily life and can cause frustration, but are generally not tied to military operations in the public's perception. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Religious/Cultural Identity (High): The mandate for UOC to declare a break with ROC could generate internal religious tensions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Federation (RF):
    • Perceived Victory/Resilience (High): RF state media and milbloggers actively cultivate a narrative of military success, resilience against Ukrainian attacks, and internal stability. The lifting of airport restrictions, economic development news, and claims of battlefield gains (Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Novotoretske, Hrushevske, Krasnoarmeyskoye direction, Konstantinovskoye, Poltavka, Pokrovsko-Mirnogradske Direction, Dzerzhinsk direction, Torske) contribute to this. Tucker Carlson's "Russia won" statement is being used to reinforce this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF claims of high UAV interception rates over its territory (e.g., 51 UAVs downed over RF regions, 12 UAVs over Tula Oblast) aim to reassure the public. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The claim of an Abrams tank destruction in Kursk Oblast will be a significant morale boost for the domestic audience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): RF milbloggers are publishing video of Russian military training African officers with motivational speeches, aimed at projecting military prowess and international influence, boosting domestic morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): TASS publishes new video of a captured Ukrainian soldier claiming commanders promised "girls" for successful mission completion, which is intended to demoralize UAF soldiers and contribute to RF's narrative of UAF moral decay. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS quotes Ukrainian security sources claiming that some mercenaries terminated their contracts after encountering the frontline. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (NEW): TASS publishes video of a captured Ukrainian officer claiming UAF sent soldiers to their deaths to create passage for "normal" troops, reinforcing RF narrative of UAF incompetence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Public Concern over Drone Attacks (Medium): Despite official claims of high interception rates, repeated drone attacks on Moscow and other RF cities (Rostov, Samara, Belgorod, Lipetsk, Yelets, Novocherkassk, Kryvyi Rih) cause public anxiety and disrupt civilian life (e.g., airport delays). WarGonzo's questioning of Moscow airport conditions suggests persistent public concern. The Samara oil refinery fire confirms drone penetration and damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Widespread "drone danger" alerts (STERNENKO source) confirm this public concern. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The targeting of Novocherkassk railway station and power plant will likely increase public anxiety in Rostov Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Internal Stability vs. Repression (Mixed): While RF emphasizes internal stability, the numerous arrests for "justifying terrorism," "discrediting the army," "treason," and the raids on media outlets (Baza) indicate ongoing internal repression. The detention of political opposition figures (Kisiev, Dud) reinforces control over political dissent. This likely creates an underlying current of fear and self-censorship, even if overt protest is suppressed. The year-round conscription proposal could also generate public anxiety. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Economic Strain (Low-Medium): The drought in Donbas (Khanzhenkovo reservoir) highlights environmental challenges with potential long-term economic impact. Dependence on volunteer aid for military equipment also points to some economic strain, though portrayed as public support. The UK sanctions on tankers aim to inflict economic damage. However, TASS reports Almost 40 flights delayed at Moscow airports due to temporary restrictions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The veteran's testimony about personal purchases of equipment (footwear, camouflage) further hints at supply chain issues affecting frontline troops. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The end of free electric car charging in Moscow could be a minor source of public dissatisfaction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The Central Bank's potential interest rate cut might signal economic adjustments, potentially easing pressure but also indicating underlying issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE): The rise in gold futures price indicates some financial market volatility or investor hedging, which could be a response to various economic or geopolitical factors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Soldier Welfare (Mixed): While RF claims to support its military personnel (e.g., proposed salary increase, benefits for widows), the need for civilian fundraising for military equipment, and a captured Russian conscript's testimony of mistreatment, may suggest gaps in soldier welfare. The appeal for FPV drones and Starlink for the 7th Airborne Division underscores a persistent need for popular support. The 39th Separate Guards Medical Detachment of the Airborne Forces' report on complex operations for wounded paratroopers indicates high medical demand. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The veteran's testimony confirms ongoing issues with military supply and personal procurement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The return of two medically-needing RF servicemen will likely be leveraged to project care for soldiers and effectiveness of negotiations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The new RF POW testimony claiming UAF sends invalids to fight will be used to demoralize UAF and boost RF morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's recent video of a Russian POW recounting alleged harsh treatment in Ukrainian captivity is aimed at galvanizing domestic support and discrediting Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Migration Issues (Rising): Discussion of issues related to migrants (e.g., illegal migration, crime involving migrant children) indicates rising social friction points that RF authorities are attempting to control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Weather Impact (Significant): Severe flooding in Moscow and a mudslide in Kabardino-Balkaria are causing significant civilian disruption and infrastructure damage, which can negatively impact public morale and trust in local governance, although some milbloggers attempt to create conspiracy theories about it. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• 4.3. International support and diplomatic developments:

  • For Ukraine:
    • Continued Military Aid (High): Germany's willingness to provide additional Patriot systems (conditional on replacement), Netherlands' significant contribution to Patriot and F-16 maintenance, Canada's allocation for tank repairs and defense industry, and Britain's air defense assets and artillery shells demonstrate sustained and substantial military support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Diplomatic Engagement (High): President Zelenskyy's emphasis on new negotiations in Istanbul indicates continued diplomatic engagement and a push for peace. The Chief of General Staff's diplomatic address also highlights this. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar's visit to Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Financial Support (High): Norway's readiness for additional AD funding, NATO's potential additional funding, and Ukraine's stated need for $120 billion for next year's defense indicate a clear and ongoing financial requirement met by international partners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Concerns over Corruption Reform (High): G7 Ambassadors' alarm over the NABU scandal and the EU's concern about the new law regarding NABU and SAP indicate international scrutiny on Ukraine's anti-corruption reforms. This could impact future aid if not addressed transparently. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) SBU Head Maliuk's direct engagement with G7 ambassadors on the NABU situation shows a continued effort to manage these concerns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The fluctuating status of the NABU/SAP bill will prolong international scrutiny. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that The Wall Street Journal stated Kyiv may lose Western support due to pressure on anti-corruption agencies, highlighting international concerns over the NABU/SAP bill. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The publication of the NABU/SAP law, despite prior confusion, will be closely watched by international partners to assess Ukraine's commitment to anti-corruption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zelenskyy has directly addressed the NABU situation with key security and anti-corruption officials. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • International Legal Accountability: President Zelenskyy's emphasis on legal architecture to hold Russia accountable. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Canada's Military Aid: Canada will allocate $14.6 million USD for maintenance of Ukrainian tanks and finance Ukrainian defense industry. Canada will allocate $15 million for Leopard 2 tank repairs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • EU Frozen Assets: РБК-Україна reports the EU wants to informally discuss the fate of frozen Russian assets. This is a potential future source of funding for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Romania's Military Shift (NEW): RBC-Ukraine reports Romania is forming a voluntary contract army, indicating a regional shift towards strengthening military capabilities among NATO allies bordering Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • For Russian Federation (RF):
    • Continued Diplomatic Engagement (Medium): Upcoming negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul indicate a willingness for diplomatic engagement, though on RF's terms. Trump's stated openness to meet Putin in China indicates potential for future high-level diplomatic engagement. The US State Department's statement on Trump's Ukraine timeline suggests a degree of US diplomatic flexibility that RF might seek to exploit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The return of two RF servicemen from Ukraine indicates a functioning diplomatic/negotiation channel for POWs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The trilateral meeting in Tehran (RF, Iran, China) on Iran's nuclear program and sanctions relief highlights Russia's continued diplomatic engagement and strengthening of alliances outside the Western sphere. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's statements on nuclear enrichment are relevant to RF's diplomatic strategy with Iran. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Propaganda Against Western Support (High): RF MFA statements consistently frame Western countries as prolonging the conflict and using Ukraine as a tool. RF milbloggers amplify any perceived Western weakness or division (e.g., Trump's stance on NATO). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF milbloggers continue to push the narrative of Western incomprehension of Russia's motivations in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Sanctions Impact (Medium): UK sanctions on RF's "shadow fleet" tankers and reported reduction in LNG exports due to sanctions demonstrate ongoing pressure. However, RF's ability to maintain port operations in Mariupol suggests some adaptation to sanctions. TASS reports The Hague lifting arrest from Gazprom shares. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • China/Iran Relations (High): A planned Russia-China-Iran trilateral meeting on nuclear issues signifies a deepening of strategic alliances outside the Western sphere. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Historical Grievances (High): RF leverages perceived historical injustices (e.g., Moldova monument, Polish General's death, Ukrainian monument desecration claims) to justify its actions and fuel anti-Western sentiment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Poland's Warning to Citizens (High): Poland urging its citizens to leave Russia by all possible means due to rising tensions indicates a significant deterioration in bilateral relations and potential for escalation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Azerbaijan Claims (High): Azerbaijan submitting evidence of torture and murder of its citizens to Russia could create diplomatic friction, although RF sources frame it differently. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • US Political Influence (NEW): Statements from the US House Speaker about not considering sanctions against Russia until Trump requests it indicate RF's continuing influence operations on US foreign policy debates. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Nuclear Posture (NEW): WarGonzo's report on the US nuclear potential returning to the UK could be a move by RF to highlight perceived shifts in NATO's nuclear deterrence posture, which could be framed as a threat or a justification for RF actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • UNESCO narrative: TASS's statements on the US withdrawal from UNESCO are part of a broader RF information operation to criticize US international policy and highlight perceived inconsistencies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Russian Training African Officers (NEW): Операция Z's video of Russian military training African officers with motivational speeches indicates a new vector for Russia to project influence and strengthen alliances with non-Western nations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Trump Trade Deals (NEW): RBC-Ukraine reports Trump announced trade deals with three countries, which RF could leverage to illustrate what they see as US transactional foreign policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • US NNSA Cyberattack (NEW): TASS reports the US National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) was subjected to a hacker attack. This is a significant cyber incident against a critical US national security entity that RF will likely monitor and potentially leverage for its information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Trump on US Aid (NEW): TASS reports Trump stated that Kyiv likely did not spend all the money allocated by the US for arms purchases, which is a new RF information operation to question US aid to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Naval Exercise (NEW): TASS publishes video of the Russian Navy conducting "July Storm" operational exercises, demonstrating a large-scale show of force and capability that is likely aimed at projecting power internationally and reassuring the domestic audience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• Sustained Deep Strike Campaign: RF will likely continue high-volume, multi-vector deep strikes across Ukraine, integrating strategic missiles (cruise, ballistic, hypersonic), Shahed UAVs, and KABs. Primary targets will remain military-industrial complex enterprises, military airfield infrastructure, and energy infrastructure, but with continued disregard for civilian casualties. Intensified use of KABs is expected, particularly against Eastern and Southern front-line towns and cities to support ground advances and demoralize the population. This will include targeted strikes on UAV C2 nodes (e.g., as seen in Antonivka). Expect continued saturation attacks on Kyiv and other major cities, now including specific threats for Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi district), Zaporizhzhia, and Mykolaiv Oblasts, particularly Kryvyi Rih, which is under heavy Shahed threat. RF will continue to attempt to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses through sheer volume and diverse attack vectors. New targets in RF (e.g., Novocherkassk railway station and GRES) will likely see increased RF AD and counter-drone measures. RF will continue to leverage advanced ISR drones like the Flexrotor for reconnaissance. RF will likely integrate or showcase Chinese "FeiLong" series loitering munitions, indicating a potential acquisition or technology transfer that could enhance their deep strike capabilities, particularly regarding swarm attacks and precision targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Persistent Ground Pressure in Eastern Ukraine: RF will maintain offensive pressure in Eastern Ukraine, particularly on the Donetsk axes (Avdiivka, Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Lyman, Sieversk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka), and along the Kharkiv direction (Kupyansk, Starytsia). They will seek to exploit any tactical gains (e.g., around Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Novotoretske, Hrushevske, Kamyansk, Krasnoarmeyskoye direction, Konstantinovskoye, Poltavka, Pokrovsko-Mirnogradske Direction, Dzerzhinsk direction, Torske) and potentially commit additional reserves if breakthroughs are achieved. DRG activity, particularly in Pokrovsk and Krasnoarmeysk, will continue, as indicated by the new report of RF DRG on the road to Pokrovsk. The increasing pace of offensive operations (as per Colonelcassad's chart) suggests RF will attempt to sustain or accelerate this tempo. RF airborne units will continue active ground operations in contested areas such as Chasiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Increased Cross-Border Kinetic Activity (Sumy/Kharkiv/Chernihiv): Given the increased reconnaissance UAV activity (including new reports in Chernihiv Oblast and near Nizhyn) and recent KAB strikes, RF will likely intensify shelling and drone attacks on border communities in Sumy, Kharkiv, and now potentially Chernihiv Oblasts. There is a low-to-medium likelihood of limited cross-border ground assaults aimed at fixing UAF forces or conducting raids. The introduction of air danger in Lipetsk Oblast (including Yelets district) suggests RF is preparing for or responding to UAF deep operations in the border regions, which could impact RF offensive planning. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Escalated Information Operations: RF will continue to aggressively use information operations to demoralize Ukrainian society, exploit internal Ukrainian political divisions (e.g., NABU/SAP controversy, TCC practices, convict mobilization challenges, foreign mercenary narratives, disinformation regarding UAF command deaths, Ukrainian monument desecration claims, Western incomprehension of Russia's actions, Zelenskyy's perceived betrayal over NABU/SAP, UAF sending invalids to fight, POW mistreatment narratives, new POW "promises of girls" narrative, mercenary contract termination narrative, new POW "sent to deaths for passage" narrative, Trump's statements on US aid accountability, Trump's "coup" accusation against Obama), and portray Russia as resilient and victorious for its domestic audience. This will include leveraging statements from captured UAF personnel, amplifying claims of UAF corruption/disunity, and promoting narratives of RF internal stability and development. They will continue to attempt to influence Western political discourse, particularly in the US, by amplifying favorable statements or creating misleading narratives around US foreign policy debates (e.g., Trump's statements, US sanctions policy, US NNSA cyberattack). RF will also continue efforts to project its military influence internationally, as seen with training African officers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF will continue to push the narrative of UAF using civilians as human shields. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Continued Focus on Internal Control: The RF will continue to implement and enforce strict internal security measures, including legal actions against perceived dissidents (e.g., pediatrician Buyanova), media crackdowns, and measures to control information flow within Russia. The push for year-round conscription will proceed, likely with official messaging to alleviate public concerns about increased numbers. They will continue to develop and implement new infrastructure projects (e.g., Moscow highway, Chechen hydropower) to project normalcy and progress. RF will continue naval exercises to project military strength and readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Targeting of Shadow Networks in Occupied Territories: RF will likely initiate internal security or economic operations against "shadow" companies identified by Ukrainian hacker groups (InformNapalm, 256 CyberStorm) in occupied territories to consolidate economic control and eliminate perceived threats to their occupation regime. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Continued POW Exchanges: The successful return of medically-needing RF servicemen suggests that negotiations for prisoner exchanges in Istanbul are ongoing and will likely continue. President Zelenskyy's stated expectation for prisoner exchanges "tomorrow" (24 JUL 25) indicates active high-level engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Economic Adjustments: RF Central Bank is likely to proceed with the planned interest rate cut, which will be framed internally as a positive economic development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The rise in gold futures suggests internal financial responses or external market influences that RF will monitor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• Massed Ground Offensive (New Axis/Reinforced East/North): RF could launch a new, large-scale ground offensive on a less defended axis (e.g., from Belarus towards Western Ukraine) or significantly reinforce and expand offensive operations in the Sumy/Kharkiv regions, aiming to fix UAF forces and draw resources away from the primary Eastern and Southern fronts. This could be coupled with a breakthrough and rapid exploitation around Pokrovsk or Avdiivka, leading to a significant operational encirclement of UAF forces. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Targeted Destruction of Western Aid Infrastructure: RF could directly target critical Western military aid and logistics infrastructure within Ukraine (e.g., railway hubs, warehouses, repair facilities), including those closer to the Polish border, using sustained hypersonic or cruise missile attacks. This would severely impede UAF resupply and readiness. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Cyberattack on Critical Ukrainian Infrastructure: RF could launch a widespread, coordinated cyberattack against Ukraine's critical civilian and military infrastructure (e.g., energy grid, financial systems, military C2 networks), aiming to cause systemic disruption and undermine national resilience. The reported cyberattack on the US NNSA indicates a high-level cyber capability that could be redirected. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Hybrid Operations in Moldova/Baltics: RF could escalate hybrid operations against Moldova (potentially leveraging Transnistria) or the Baltic States, aiming to test NATO's Article 5 or create diversionary pressure, possibly involving cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, or even limited incursions by proxy forces. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)

5.3. Timeline estimates and decision points

• Next 24-48 Hours (Immediate Threat):
  • Continued High-Volume RF Aerial Strikes: Expect RF to maintain or increase the tempo of missile (cruise, ballistic, hypersonic) and UAV (Shahed, "Harpy") attacks nationwide, particularly targeting strategic targets (military-industrial complex, airfields, energy) and large urban centers. This includes continued KAB use on the front lines. Ukrainian AD will remain at high alert. Decision Point: UAF must assess AD resource consumption vs. interception rates and prioritize asset allocation.
  • Intensified Ground Pressure in Eastern Ukraine: RF will continue to press advances in Donetsk Oblast, particularly around Avdiivka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar, seeking further tactical gains. Renewed tactical aviation activity in the eastern direction suggests direct air support for ground operations and continued aviation munitions use. Decision Point: UAF commands must evaluate the need for immediate tactical reinforcements or controlled withdrawals to consolidate defensive lines and preserve combat power, especially in the Avdiivka area.
  • Cross-Border Kinetic Activity: Expect continued RF shelling and reconnaissance UAV activity along the Sumy and Kharkiv borders, as evidenced by continued "Anvar" unit operations. Small-scale cross-border incursions by RF DRGs remain a possibility. Decision Point: Border Security Forces to maintain heightened vigilance and interdiction efforts against DRG infiltration.
  • Sustained RF Information Operations: Expect RF to exploit any real or perceived Ukrainian weaknesses, especially around the NABU/SAP controversy and mobilization efforts, and continue to amplify successes and normalize the conflict for their domestic audience. Decision Point: UAF/Ukrainian government must maintain proactive and transparent communication to counter RF narratives and sustain public trust and international support.
  • Prisoner Exchange: Zelenskyy's statement suggests a prisoner exchange may occur within the next 24 hours. Decision Point: Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War to finalize logistics and preparations for reception and medical care of returning personnel.