Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 221910Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats have been lifted, though localized Shahed UAV threats persist for Lviv Oblast, Southern Ukraine, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi districts, also Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, heading NW), and Kharkiv Oblast. Civilian casualties confirmed (14 fatalities, multiple injured) across Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Chernivtsi, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Sloviansk, Kherson, and Kramatorsk. Rescue and emergency services are actively engaged. Civilian infrastructure damage confirmed in Odesa due to RF UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Northern Ukraine (Kyiv Oblast): Continued Air Defense (AD) engagement against Shahed UAVs over Kyiv. Kinetic impacts on residential and commercial buildings, and a metro entrance. One fatality and nine injuries reported in Kyiv. Firefighters are actively engaged; kindergarten fire confirmed. Over fifteen direct hits on various objects in Kyiv overnight. RF milblogger Colonelcassad claims three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, with video showing multiple explosions and fires, and claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv. New ballistic missile threat declared for Kyiv, now lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports a localized internal security incident involving a shooting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kyiv City: RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU report a crane collapsed on Hlybochytska Street due to strong winds/storm, affecting civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports 5 individuals hospitalized in Kyiv, including a 13-year-old girl, due to bad weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Protest observed in Kyiv regarding legislation limiting NABU/SAP powers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Eastern Ukraine: Initial cruise missile group detected over Kharkiv Oblast, moving towards Poltava Oblast. Kharkiv's Kyivskyi district hit by 12 UAV strikes overnight. RF milblogger "Воин DV" claims bomber strikes on UAF forward positions in Yanvarskyi supporting 36th Army advance. New group of RF UAVs reported from Luhansk Oblast moving towards Kharkiv Oblast. Kharkiv Oblast governor confirms strikes on Kharkiv city and 10 settlements. DeepState reports RF advances in Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, and near three other villages in Donetsk Oblast. MoD Russia video claims liberation of Popov Yar. RF milbloggers claim a new RF front opened in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian military operations confirmed near Belaya Gora, Donetsk, with claims of capturing foreign weapons. Colonelcassad shares map showing continued positional changes on the front line. UAF National Guard "Khartia" brigade drone operators claimed destruction of nearly a platoon of Russian occupiers in Kharkiv Oblast. A tractor driver was blown up by a mine in Balakliia community, Kharkiv Oblast. At least 54 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast affected by enemy strikes over the past week. STERNENKO claims Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment holding back Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast. Liveuamap Source reports recent clashes at Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Gulyaypole, and Kherson directions. Ukrainian forces repelled 23 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. FPV drone strike on Russian UAZ-452 ('Bukhanka') vehicle confirmed. Perovske, Zolochiv community, Kharkiv Oblast, shelled. DeepState reports liquidation of RF sabotage groups in Pokrovsk. RF milbloggers claim RF DRG activity in Pokrovsk, with video suggesting an ambush on a UAF vehicle. Threat of aviation munitions for Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. Clashes confirmed yesterday in Toretsk, Sieversk, Lyman, Novopavlivka, Kramatorsk, Kupyansk, Orikhiv, South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), and Pokrovsk directions. Ukrainian forces repelled 22 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. DeepState analysis indicates RF army occupied Hrushevske and advanced near Voskresenka, Orikhove, Mayak and Zatyhka (formerly Suvorove) in Donetsk Oblast. TASS and MoD Russia claim RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske in DNR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: TASS reports RF forces advanced near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast, dislodging UAF units from several positions. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports renewed activity in Kharkiv direction, with video showing drone-guided strikes on targets, indicating continued RF pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Popov Yar, Donetsk Oblast: TASS reports a group of Ukrainian servicemen surrendered in Popov Yar, DNR. This claim, if verified, indicates localized UAF tactical setbacks. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • South-Donetsk Direction: Colonelcassad publishes video claiming successful destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit by 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, "Vostok" Grouping. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast: ASTRA, RBC-Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 report a direct RF KAB strike on a residential building, resulting in the confirmed death of a 10-year-old child and 7 injured. Visuals confirm a multi-story residential building on fire. New information reports 12 injured after aviation strikes on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sloviansk, Donetsk Oblast: Олексій Білошицький reports Russian attack on Sloviansk. Paramedics from the "Predator" brigade assisted an 81-year-old woman. This confirms continued RF strikes on Sloviansk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk Oblast: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade drone operators created a "kill zone" in Donetsk Oblast, destroying multiple enemy vehicles and personnel with FPV drones. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video of 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade using FPV drones to destroy two pieces of RF mechanized equipment during an attempted assault, confirming successful engagement against armored targets. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes a video showing Ukrainian drone operators (427th Separate Unmanned Systems Regiment "Rarog") using "fireball" bombs (improvised incendiary devices dropped from heavy drones) to destroy houses and premises used by the enemy in the frontline zone. Video shows multiple explosions and fires in a village. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast: RBC-Ukraine provides photo/video on RF drone and KAB attacks on Dobropillia, highlighting continued RF kinetic impacts on civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Belgorod Oblast (RF): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video claiming HIMARS strikes on an RF S-300 air defense battery, a "Nebo-M" radar, and a 5H66M "Big Bird" radar. This, if verified, is a significant UAF success. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) TASS reports three injured, including two minors, in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA also reports three injured, including two teenagers, in Belgorod Oblast after shelling. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a video of an aerial attack on a convoy of vehicles, likely military trucks, in a rural setting, captioned about a strike on an S-300/400 in Belgorod, suggesting UAF counter-battery or deep strike effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports a civilian was injured in Belgorod Oblast due to a UAF strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Velyka Novosilka - Shevchenko: "Сливочный каприз" publishes photo messages likely indicating continued engagements in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Сливочный каприз" publishes video of a destroyed settlement with a person carrying a Russian flag, captioned "Konstantinovka - Belaya Gora," indicating active combat and likely RF advances in this area of Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnolimanskoye Direction: "Два майора" publishes a video showing RF unit thanking for humanitarian aid, indicating continued RF presence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar: Colonelcassad provides video footage claiming the destruction of a UAF UAV command post on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnoarmeysk direction: MoD Russia video claims destruction of a UAF UAV control post. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports RF forces are forming a wide encirclement of Krasnoarmeysk in DNR after liberating Novotoretske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV reports RF forces active in Krasnoarmeysk direction, claiming to disable Starlink communications for 25th Airborne Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sloviansk/Kramatorsk: Colonelcassad publishes video claiming "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk, with a large plume of dark smoke. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnoarmeysk: Басурин о главном and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publish videos claiming Russian reconnaissance and DRG activity in Krasnoarmeysk, with video suggesting an ambush on a UAF vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes photo messages claiming active work by RF operators against enemy equipment in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Alexandrovgrad: Воин DV publishes drone footage claiming destruction of armored vehicles and personnel by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 5th Guards Tank Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novotoretske, DNR: TASS, MoD Russia, Операция Z, and Kotsnews all claim RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnoarmeysk Direction: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes video claiming the downing of a heavy "Baba Yaga" drone by AIRNOMADS operators. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Torskoye: Оперативний ЗСУ publishes drone video claiming to show a "military crime" by RF forces targeting a civilian on a bicycle, followed by artillery strikes, with claims of multiple enemy neutralizations. DeepState publishes video alleging RF forces shot a local resident on a bicycle in Torske, followed by artillery strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Orlivka, Sumy Oblast: Colonelcassad claims use of "Harpy" drones by RF UAV units to destroy temporary deployment points and vehicles of the UAF 104th Territorial Defense Brigade near Orlivka, Sumy Oblast. Video shows residential buildings impacted by explosions and fires. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Temirovka, Zaporizhzhia Region: MoD Russia claims Uragan MLRS hit AFU positions near Temirovka, Zaporizhzhia region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pokrovsk (Donetsk Oblast): Рыбарь channel publishes a photo and video indicating "Russian infantry in Pokrovsk." The video, likely from a drone, shows a road intersection with a damaged/abandoned vehicle and several figures, suggesting RF ground presence or recent activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes video claiming to show drone footage of an AFU armored vehicle being engaged in Pokrovsk by AIRNOMADS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны publish video claiming fierce battles, increased pace of advance, and destruction of enemy equipment and personnel near Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z reports that "Otvazhnye" (brave ones) stormed a UAF strongpoint near Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast, Izium: Colonelcassad publishes video showing residents of Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, visually monitoring a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike on a Ukrainian "occupation formation" object. This implies the strike occurred on July 22, 2025, and caused damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes video claiming a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike on a target in Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, with thick smoke billowing from a partially destroyed building, confirming continued RF kinetic activity in the area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UPDATE: Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports RF forces struck military warehouses in Izium, Kharkiv Oblast this morning (22 JUL 25). Video confirms partially destroyed building with smoke. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast, Oskil: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes drone footage showing the Khartia brigade's engagement against enemy personnel and a fuel depot in the Oskil region. RF flags visible on targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk Oblast (New KAB Launches): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports repeated KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv/Sumy Border (New KAB Launches): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches on the border of Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kamyansk (New): Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Defense Forces have withdrawn to the flanks and are holding Kamyansk under fire control, indicating an adaptive defensive maneuver. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок posts a map of the Dnipropetrovsk direction, indicating potential RF focus or movements in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок posts a map of the Druzhkivka direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video titled "В Авдеевке хорошая погода. Жарко, как в Африке, температура под 40. Как тут, дроны летают?" showing a severely damaged apartment building, likely in Avdiivka, with a person in tactical gear, indicating ongoing conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Konstantinovka Direction: Z комитет + карта СВО publishes a tactical map indicating RF advances and control zones in the "Konstantinovskoye direction" as of 22 JUL 25. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poltavka Direction: Z комитет + карта СВО publishes a tactical map indicating RF advances in Poltavka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Central Ukraine: Missile group (up to 10) towards Myrhorod district, then passing Poltava towards Kremenсhuk. New missile group from Sumy Oblast also moved towards Poltava Oblast. Another group from Cherkasy Oblast diverted, heading westward into Vinnytsia Oblast. Kryvyi Rih reports "situation controlled." Aftermath of attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast confirmed. TASS claims RF forces used FABs against UAF reserve positions in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovets Oblast. New threat of strike UAVs for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi districts). UAV reported on Poltava Oblast, heading southwest. Threat of enemy strike UAVs in Zolotoniskyi and Cherkaskyi districts of Cherkasy Oblast. One fatality in Vinnytsia from 16 July strike. Explosions in Kropyvnytskyi and Kryvyi Rih amid ballistic missile threat. Kirovohrad Oblast attacked by ballistic missiles. Nikopol district attacked by artillery, MLRS "Grad," and FPV drones. НгП раZVедка reports on aftermath of strike on preparatory camp in Kropyvnytskyi. UAV threat reported in Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, heading northwest. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), with possible AD activity. Missile danger for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi district) and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: TASS claims a UK-trained UAF unit was destroyed. This is an unverified RF claim. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports over two dozen attacks in Nikopol district throughout the day, using artillery and FPV drones, targeting the district center and other communities. This confirms continued RF kinetic pressure in the region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: РБК-Україна reports an infrastructure object damaged due to a drone hit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ballistic Missile Threat: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports a threat of ballistic missile use from the East. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports ballistic missile threat from Northeast (Now lifted). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports ballistic threat from East. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports high-speed target from Kursk Oblast heading southwest in Sumy Oblast. Ballistic missile threat lifted for all areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poltava Oblast: The Office of the Prosecutor General reports a domestic law enforcement event regarding counterfeit perfumes/cosmetics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) claims a powerful strike on a UAF training ground in Kirovohrad Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes photos regarding a visit from Myroslav Biletskyi, Head of Zakarpattia Oblast Military Administration, indicating inter-regional cooperation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Western Ukraine: Cruise missiles confirmed from Vinnytsia Oblast to Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Main group entered Ternopil Oblast, Chernivtsi Oblast (AD engaging, 4 fatalities confirmed), and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast (explosions, damage, casualties). Kinzhal hypersonic missile launched from MiG-31K tracked towards Starokostiantyniv, then Ternopil/Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts, with confirmed explosions and casualties. Mayor of Ivano-Frankivsk confirmed infrastructure damage. Three Shahed UAVs approaching Ivano-Frankivsk reported intercepted. Damage to kindergarten and university in Lviv. Damaged residential buildings (20 private houses) in Kamianets-Podilskyi district, Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Odesa Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a Shahed UAV recovered from the shore near Odesa. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports severe flooding in Odesa due to heavy rain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Southern Ukraine: New Shahed UAVs detected in Black Sea, heading towards Pivdenne/Koblevo (8 inbound). RF strike on Vasylivskyi district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulted in 2 fatalities, 1 wounded. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reports 14 UAVs shot down (previously 7). Missile threat active for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF 44th Artillery Brigade successfully targeted an RF 2A65 Msta-B. Colonelcassad claims missile strike on Ukrainian gas platform in Black Sea. TASS reports parts of a downed UAF UAV fell on a kindergarten and Ministry of Emergency Situations in Berdyansk. Launches of KABs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast confirmed. UAV threat for Kherson, Zaporizhzhia (Nikopolskyi district), and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts from the south. 4 new Shahed UAVs from Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Pavlohrad. New groups of Shahed UAVs from Black Sea heading towards Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts. Odesa Oblast AD engaged 10 Shahed UAVs over Black Sea; 12 Shahed UAVs confirmed approaching Odesa from the sea. Explosions heard in Odesa. CONFIRMED CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE IN ODESA DUE TO RF UAV ATTACK, with photo evidence of destroyed vehicles, debris, and extensive damage. RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU further confirm extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Odesa. One fatality in Odesa due to the attack (confirmed by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS), and one injured (STERNENKO). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson Oblast: Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 4 Russian army assaults. TASS reports on Russian Group "Dnepr" UAV calculation with FPV drones destroying a Ukrainian D-20 howitzer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок claims destruction of a Ukrainian boat with personnel in Kherson direction using a fiber-optic FPV drone, indicating continued RF FPV operations against UAF small craft. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes video showing a Grad MLRS crew eliminating enemy targets on the right bank of Dnepr river. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes video claiming destruction of a UAV command post for the 34th Separate Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Antonivka, Kherson Oblast, using a LMUR (likely missile). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mariupol: TASS reports that the Mariupol port is operating with sufficient staff for current workload. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vasylivskyi District, Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has posted photo messages showing a wounded man from an "enemy attack." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson: ASTRA reports one woman injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Southern Direction: Сили оборони Півдня України reports continued RF aviation strikes, FPV drone use, and Shahed UAV attacks on frontline settlements and UAF positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Ballistic missile threat alert issued. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues immediate alert for Zaporizhzhia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports air raid alert lifted for Zaporizhzhia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: Air Force reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV detected. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Shkolny Airfield, Odesa Oblast: Военкор Котенок claims Ukrainian AD targeted high-rise buildings and local parking during "Geranium" attack, an RF attempt to shift blame. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Nova Kakhovka: WarGonzo reports two fatalities from a drone strike on a minibus in Nova Kakhovka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Gas Facilities (Black Sea): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок reports "Naftogaz" states that an important gas production facility was attacked last night with "dozens of drones." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson Direction: Два майора publishes video indicating drone operations, signal loss/interference and possible impact, related to Kherson direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vessel Destruction: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes video showing a burning naval vessel, likely after an engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Temporary flight restrictions at Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky airports have been lifted. Restrictions also lifted at Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, and Kaluga airports. RF milbloggers gloat about Kyiv impacts. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claims 18 UAVs shot down over Moscow; RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight (previously 23 over Moscow, and a total of 74 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight). Falling UAV debris on railway station in Rostov Oblast delayed over 50 passenger trains. Fire at Kamianolomni railway station, Rostov Oblast confirmed. Belgorod governor reports 2 civilian injuries from UAF UAV attack. Flooding reported in Moscow streets. Fires reported in Rostov and Moscow oblasts after UAV hits. TASS reports a Moldovan national detained in Ryazan confessed to transmitting data on RF Armed Forces to Kyiv. TASS reports a man detained in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD facilities. TASS reports RF MoD claims 14 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kaluga, Bryansk, Tula, and Oryol Oblasts. Crimean Bridge queue reached 2000 vehicles. TASS reports foreigners can enter RF without RuID registration. TASS reports the new Moskvich-8 car is on sale for 2.98 million rubles. TASS reports the Sheremetyevo airport is organizing recreation zones for passengers. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. ASTRA reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Gennady Starunov, a Russian "Teacher of the Year 2022," lecturer from Moscow school #1164, and author of Telegram channel "Frontline Notes," was liquidated in Ukraine. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov-on-Don: TASS reports a UAV attack was repelled in Rostov-on-Don, Millerovo, Donetsk (Rostov Oblast), and Azov district, with no casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tula Oblast: TASS reports RF air defense destroyed three Ukrainian UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov Oblast UAV Development: TASS reports plans to make Rostov Oblast a leader in UAV development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novosibirsk: TASS reports the detention of a young man for hacking information resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Samara Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports a drone attack on Samara Oblast, RF. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) ASTRA provides video confirming the Novosuybyshevsk oil refinery fire in Samara Oblast after a UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Bryansk Oblast: Брянская область. Губернатор reports "nine more" Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed overnight. TASS reports that searches are being conducted at the home of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, now confirmed detained on charges of abuse of power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow: TASS reports the death of Irina Podnosova, the Chairman of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation, with Yuri Ivanenko assigned duties. TASS reports Putin expressed condolences for the death of Podnosova, highlighting high-level recognition of the event. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы posts a video showing water puddles and cleaning operations inside a public building, suggesting a spill or leak. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ТАСС publishes videos showing flooded metro tracks at "Bagrationovskaya" and "Kuntsevskaya" stations due to heavy rain, causing service disruptions. Another video shows a flooded train station/underpass. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes multiple videos showing severe urban flooding in Moscow, with vehicles navigating deep water and commercial establishments affected. The captions contain anti-Russian slogans, suggesting Ukrainian information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA publishes videos showing severe urban flooding in Moscow, with flooded streets, a supermarket, individuals wading through deep water, and a shopping mall interior. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kabardino-Balkaria: ASTRA and Operatyvnyi ZSU report an emergency situation declared due to a mudslide and damaged bridge. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow Development: Новости Москвы reports plans for over 800 sports and 1500 children's playgrounds to be built this year. Новости Москвы also reports that scientists have proven a four-day work week without salary reduction improves employee well-being. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы posts a video showing heavy rain and flooded streets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Crimea: TASS reports three individuals were detained for desecrating a monument. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tyumen: "Операция Z" reports the detention of a migrant for threatening a teenager. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Law Enforcement: TASS reports billionaire Matsotsky appealed his in absentia arrest in a bribery case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the chief editor of the Ryazan online publication "Svoy Kolokolny" (Svoy kolokolnya) Komarov was detained in an extortion case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports a local resident was detained in Veliky Novgorod for planning to join the "Russian Volunteer Corps", a Ukrainian organization banned in Russia. The video shows what appears to be an interrogation, suggesting intelligence/security operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • FSB Activity: FSB reports it thwarted activities of three suspects aiding Ukrainian special services. Colonelcassad confirms three accomplices detained for preparing terrorist attacks. Photos show their correspondence, weapons, and arsons. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow: ASTRA reports security forces detained Dmitry Kisiev, head of the headquarters of former presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports that journalist Yuri Dud, classified as a "foreign agent" in Russia, has been заочно (in absentia) arrested for two months for violating "foreign agent" law. TASS confirms this arrest and states he is on an international wanted list. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns states that the court in Moscow заочно (in absentia) arrested journalist Yuri Dud. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports blogger Dud is заочно (in absentia) accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports Yuri Dud is заочно (in absentia) accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF MoD Corruption: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports new criminal cases against former Deputy Minister of Defense Pavel Popov for multi-million ruble bribes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novorossiysk: TASS reports over 20 apartments damaged by a domestic gas explosion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • St. Petersburg: ASTRA and Север.Реалии report two foreign nationals detained near FSB building for dancing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Foreign Vessel Access: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Putin has toughened rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poland General's Death: TASS, Colonelcassad, and Alex Parker Returns report the death of Polish General Waldemar Skrzypczak. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a photo message reporting the death of former Polish Land Forces commander Waldemar Skrzypczak, highlighting his calls to attack Belarus and Kaliningrad Oblast. This is a clear RF information operation aiming to vilify a deceased foreign military figure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF MFA Statements: TASS reports RF MFA states RF significantly expanded list of EU representatives and EU institutions banned from entering Russia. TASS also reports "Western countries continue to use Ukraine as a tool to wage war against Russia." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Media Raids: TASS, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, and Север.Реалии report police and OMON conducted searches at "Baza" publication's editorial office and the editor-in-chief's apartment. Alex Parker Returns claims the editor-in-chief was arrested due to illegal dissemination of restricted information. TASS also provides video showing the situation at the Baza office. Операция Z reports a criminal case for exceeding authority has been opened against police officers in Moscow who leaked information, and searches are ongoing at the office of a Telegram channel. TASS reports investigators detained not only the editor-in-chief of Baza, Trifonova, but also several other employees for questioning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes video claiming police officers who leaked information to Baza have been detained, along with five Baza employees including the editor-in-chief. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the chief editor of Telegram channel Baza, Gleb Trifonov, and his colleague were detained in Moscow for bribery and taken to the RF Investigative Committee. This confirms continued crackdowns on media. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • IT Military Deferral: TASS reports that the acceptance of applications for IT deferrals from military service has begun. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pensioner Treason Case: ASTRA reports a pensioner from Izhevsk sentenced to 15 years for treason but released due to health. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Supreme Court Memorial: TASS reports a memorial service for Irina Podnosova was held. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Yuri Kara Funeral: TASS reports and provides video of the funeral of film director Yuri Kara in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Transbaikal Region: ASTRA reports a teenager claiming torture after detention for forest arson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow Drone Facility Attack: РБК-Україна reports a car belonging to the head of a company manufacturing drones for occupiers was burned in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Roskomnadzor: TASS reports Roskomnadzor blocked 56,000 resources with extremist materials. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Law on Extremist Materials: TASS reports State Duma adopted law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns reinforces this, stating the Duma approved fines up to 5,000 rubles for searching/viewing extremist materials via VPN, and up to 500,000 rubles for advertising VPN services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the State Duma has adopted amendments related to requirements for owners of audiovisual services and social networks regarding blocking films that lack distribution certificates or discredit Russian spiritual and moral values. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo message stating the State Duma has approved a law to block communications for subscribers with frozen bank accounts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Families of SVO Fighters: TASS reports State Duma allowed widows of SVO fighters to use their cars until inheritance is issued. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Second Child Credit Holidays: Басурин о главном reports Russian families with a second child will receive 1.5 years of credit holidays. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • St. Petersburg (Internal Security): TASS reports security forces conducting operations at the Mikhailovsky Theater. This operation appears related to a film crew and cultural event, not military action. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF State Duma: TASS reports the State Duma has approved the transfer of data regarding migrant children enrollment in schools to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports State Duma Deputy Mikhail Tarasenko (United Russia) has died from illness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the Duma adopted an amendment fining citizens for disclosing state secrets in media. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes video showing a formal session, identified by a watermark as '@vv_volodin', discussing "labor migrants." This appears to be a state Duma session. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the State Duma has adopted several laws aimed at preventing embezzlement and withdrawal of funds, focusing on increasing the effectiveness of combating such crimes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the Duma restricted the sale of electronic railway tickets through third-party aggregators that are not carriers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы publishes a photo message stating a draft law for year-round military conscription has been submitted to the State Duma. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA publishes a video showing a man (later identified as a State Duma Deputy) discussing the implementation of year-round conscription. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Messengers: TASS reports that blocking foreign messengers in Russia is not planned; it's about compliance with Russian requirements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Internal Affairs: Операция Z shares an image with text about "traitors-Nazis from Russia" being handed over to Moscow by Kyiv, with some committing suicide. This is an RF information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z reports that Ukrainian MP Skorokhod admitted that TCC (military recruitment centers) "beat mobilized people to death" across Ukraine. This is an RF information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Armenian Insiders: "Два майора" reports "Armenian insiders" claim security forces will soon work with businessmen close to Pashinyan who conduct business in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kaliningrad "Conqueror" Dies: Старше Эдды reports the death of the "conqueror" of Kaliningrad, a cultural/historical reference. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow Airport: WarGonzo questions what is happening at Moscow airport during a "carpet plan" (drone attack), highlighting continued public concern over drone attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports 517 flights were canceled at Moscow and St. Petersburg airports between July 19-22, affecting 75,000 passengers, due to drone attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a serviceman could not see his family due to air collapse. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes multiple videos showing a crowded airport terminal in Moscow/St. Petersburg with many people sleeping on the floor, indicating severe travel disruptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Trump Administration & PRO: TASS reports the Trump administration is looking for an alternative to Musk's SpaceX for creating a "Golden Dome" missile defense system. РБК-Україна publishes a photo message implying Trump is seeking alternatives to SpaceX. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Трамп не виключає можливість зустрічі з путіним під час ймовірного візиту до Китаю. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes a video of Donald Trump. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donbas Drought: Mash на Донбассе provides photo messages of the dried-up Khanzhenkovo reservoir, which supplied water to cities in DNR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Mash на Донбассе posts photos to solicit user-generated content, but the content of the images is not directly relevant to military intelligence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volunteer Aid (RF forces): Colonelcassad publishes a video about collecting aid for a 4th vehicle convoy along the KatyaValya line, indicating continued reliance on civilian support for their forces. The video shows a large quantity of new dirt bikes/motorcycles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Народная милиция ДНР publishes photo messages for a fundraising drive for three units actively fighting on the ground in the Sumy direction, indicating continued reliance on volunteer aid for frontline forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок makes an appeal for support from the people of Russia for soldiers on the front lines. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad shows two civilian Lada Niva vehicles being prepared for service on the front line, indicating continued reliance on civilian vehicle support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes a video showing a military hospital providing medical care, supporting the narrative of soldier welfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow News (Internal): Новости Москвы provides a video about "what you can't google now," likely a commentary on internet restrictions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы reports that registration fees for vehicles and driver's licenses will increase from September 1, 2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Population Decline: TASS reports the global population will begin to decline from the 2040s, a challenge for the world economy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS publishes a photo message stating China's population may significantly decrease to 500-700 million by the end of the century due to a halved birth rate, as stated by Oreshkin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Public Wi-Fi: TASS reports the State Duma proposed a program for public Wi-Fi access points across Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Omsk Scam: TASS reports a scam in Omsk where 2.9 million rubles were stolen from an 18-year-old under the guise of flower delivery, with part of the money allegedly sent to aid Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sochi Detainee: ASTRA reports a Sochi resident arrested for "discrediting" the RF army was transferred to a psychiatric hospital after an alleged suicide attempt. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kursk Oblast: TASS reports the military court sentenced Lithuanian Bartkevichius to 23 years in absentia for desecrating a military grave and other terror-related crimes in Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора reports the acting governor of Kursk Oblast reports RF AD engaged Ukrainian targets in the sky and no casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sporting Event: TASS reports Russian synchronized swimmers took second place at the World Championship, the first time in 27 years they didn't win gold. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Beer Production: TASS publishes a photo message claiming Russia has displaced Germany from the top five largest beer producers in the world. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Law Enforcement Detention: Север.Реалии reports that detentions related to the case of leaking official information occurred in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Krasnodar Krai, and Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Azerbaijan Claims: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Azerbaijan has submitted evidence to Russia of torture and murder of two Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia: TASS reports mass events have been suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats of assassination attempts on servicemen by Ukrainian special services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volgograd Oblast: Два майора reports a Telegram channel author in Volgograd was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Steven Seagal: TASS reports actor Steven Seagal has left one of his last projects in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kaluga Oblast: Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on a crime involving migrant children in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Gambling Advertisement: Alex Parker Returns publishes a video that is an advertisement for online gambling, irrelevant to military intelligence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Blagoveshchensk: Два майора publishes video and photo messages claiming the exposure of a "PLO-OPG" (presumably criminal group) involved in harassing locals, indicating internal law enforcement activity against domestic criminal elements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novgorod Oblast: TASS reports the arrest of Konstantin Kuranov, Minister of Transport and Road Management for Novgorod Oblast, on bribery charges. ASTRA provides photo confirmation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports that the Minister of Transport and Road Management of Novgorod Oblast, Konstantin Kuranov, has been arrested in Moscow on bribery charges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Trump on China: TASS reports Trump stated he would likely visit China in the near future and did not exclude talks with Putin during this visit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Trump on Obama: TASS reports Trump called on the US Department of Justice to investigate Obama for manipulating intelligence data related to US elections and Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Voronezh: TASS reports that doctors in Voronezh saved a two-year-old child who swallowed 48 magnets. This is civilian news, not militarily significant. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Conscript Testimonial: Оперативний ЗСУ publishes a video of a Russian conscript detailing poor treatment and discipline, suggesting low morale and mistreatment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UPDATE: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники publishes a video titled "❗️«Мы подписали контракт под давлением»: как обманывают срочников". This video features three young men, appearing to be soldiers, discussing their contract terms, difficulties terminating it, and alleged pressure, indicating potential morale and recruitment issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Lipetsk Oblast: Игорь Артамонов reports an air danger regime has been introduced across the entire Lipetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sumy Oblast: RF conducted a strike on Sumy community's Kovpakivskyi district. Two explosions heard, likely from KABs, impacting residential area and causing damage to apartment building. Three injured, now increased to 12. Emergency services on site. 5 multi-story buildings, a shopping center, and 18 cars damaged. Threat of aviation munitions for Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. Colonelcassad reports "Anvar" unit operating in the border areas of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, providing drone footage of UAF positions, indicating continued RF reconnaissance and targeting efforts. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs are heading towards southeastern Sumy Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast (near Mena, Koryukivka), and a UAV from northeast towards Sumy, with possible AD activity. KAB launches confirmed on Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy: RBC-Ukraine and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publish video and photo evidence showing the aftermath of KAB strikes, confirming three injured, including a child. STERNENKO reports a woman was killed in Sumy due to a drone attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports RF attacked Sumy with drones in daylight, damaging a medical facility and playground. A woman and a child were injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a video showing a street scene in Sumy, with a Ukrainian flag overlay and Sumy regional emblem, with dialogue in Russian, likely for propaganda purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia launched another strike on Sumy Oblast, resulting in power outages for some consumers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing emergency responders aiding injured individuals, including a child, in a damaged residential building in Sumy following an RF attack, confirming 1 fatality and 10 injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports a woman died and others were injured due to a massive Russian UAV strike in Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy Direction: "Два майора" publishes FPV drone footage claiming to target a UAF soldier. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports a high-speed target heading towards Sumy from Kursk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports direction of target towards Khotin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Varachino, Sumy Oblast: Операция Z and "Воин DV" claim Russian army liberated Varachino, pushing UAF from Russian borders in Sumy Oblast. This is an unverified RF claim. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Sumy Oblast: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy UAVs in northern Sumy Oblast with possible AD activity. Air Force reports a likely reconnaissance UAV heading north towards Sumy city. Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. Means for their destruction have been engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kryvyi Rih: Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 22.07.25. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Oleksandr Vilkul provides a briefing summary highlighting the controlled situation in Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Andriivka: Военкор Котенок shares civilian testimonial from displaced person, highlighting destruction and humanitarian impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Krasny Liman: Сливочный каприз publishes photo messages regarding Krasny Liman - Zelyonaya Dolina. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Odesa: Colonelcassad publishes multi-panel image related to Odesa, likely showing areas affected by strikes or for future targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Crimean Shores: "Два майора" publishes video showing military-style inflatable boat with personnel, indicating maritime operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Novomikhailovka: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of a woman mourning her son, a Russian SMO participant who died storming Novomikhailovka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Grushevske, Donetsk Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF army occupied Hrushevske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Dachne, Donetsk Oblast: Народная милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Toretsk Direction: Олексій Білошицький provides video captioned "Adventures of patrolmen in Toretsk direction🤙". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Lugansk (LNR): Рыбарь reports on an incident in Lugansk, without further details. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Mash на Донбассе reports a court recognized the "Kastus Kalinovsky Regiment" as a terrorist organization, indicating RF legal actions against Ukrainian-affiliated groups. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports a court in DNR recognized the "Kastus Kalinovsky Regiment" as a terrorist organization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Lithuania-Belarus Border: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА publishes graphic on Lithuanian military exercises near Belarus border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast: STERNENKO reports a gas worker, Igor Goncharenko, was killed by Russians in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Zaporizhzhia Front: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes photos showing continued reinforcement of the Zaporizhzhia front, with military personnel and equipment (drones, radio equipment). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a video message about strengthening the front in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including increasing the defense fund to 3 billion hryvnias, constructing an anti-drone road on the Orikhivskyyi highway, and plans for over 200 km of such infrastructure. Mentions a meeting with the Minister of Defense and President Zelenskyy's decision on Ukraine's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention (anti-personnel mines), stating daily production and delivery of 1,000-2,000 mine components. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Pokrovsk: Рыбарь channel publishes videos claiming to show Russian infantry in Pokrovsk. One video shows an aerial view of a road intersection with a damaged/abandoned vehicle and several figures, suggesting RF ground presence or recent activity. Another video appears to show a casual civilian drive with an injured arm visible, context unclear but low military significance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes drone footage showing an armored vehicle being engaged in Pokrovsk by AIRNOMADS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны publish video claiming fierce battles, increased pace of advance, and destruction of enemy equipment and personnel near Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Moscow: Север.Реалии publishes a video showing a protest in Moscow, with an activist being detained by police while holding a sign criticizing censorship and the war. Pro-Kremlin activists are attempting to disrupt the protest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukraine (Internal Affairs): Стрелков Игорь Иванович reports Ukrainian authorities have mandated UOC to declare a break with ROC by August 18, or face prohibition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kaluga Oblast: Alex Parker Returns reports a crime involving migrant children in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Luhansk Direction: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is crowdfunding for two copters for artillery reconnaissance in the Luhansk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Ukraine General: Night operations provide low visibility, favoring RF UAV and missile saturation tactics. Kharkiv Oblast expects worsening weather (heavy rains, thunderstorms), which could impact ground operations. Oleg Synegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, reports significant weather deterioration is possible in the near future. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kyiv City: RBC-Ukraine and Оперативний ЗСУ publish videos showing a crane collapse due to strong winds/storm. RBC-Ukraine also reports heavy rain causing flooded streets in Kyiv. This indicates significant adverse weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports 5 individuals hospitalized in Kyiv due to bad weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Odesa: RBC-Ukraine reports severe flooding in Odesa due to heavy rain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dry Landscape: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video showing a dry, somewhat barren landscape with smoke plumes in the distance, potentially indicating recent fires or controlled burning, which could affect ground mobility and visibility. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Russia: Heavy rainfall in Moscow Oblast indicates adverse weather conditions. Bridge collapse in Moscow region due to heavy rains confirmed, cutting off villages. Significant flooding confirmed in Moscow. TASS reports 15 "Tavriya" trains delayed in communication with Crimea. Train delays at Paveletsky Station due to weather. All trains to Black Sea resorts on July 22 will follow schedule. Старше Эдды implies human intervention in Moscow's heavy rains, suggesting a conspiracy theory about weather manipulation. Новости Москвы publishes video showing heavy rain in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ТАСС publishes videos showing flooded metro tracks at "Bagrationovskaya" and "Kuntsevskaya" stations due to heavy rain, causing service disruptions. Another video shows a flooded train station/underpass. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes multiple videos showing severe urban flooding in Moscow, with vehicles navigating deep water and commercial establishments affected. This indicates significant weather impacts on civilian infrastructure in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA publishes videos showing severe urban flooding in Moscow, with flooded streets, a supermarket, individuals wading through deep water, and a shopping mall interior. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kabardino-Balkaria: ASTRA and Operatyvnyi ZSU report a mudslide in Tyrnyauz and a damaged bridge support due to severe flooding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donbas Drought: Mash на Донбассе provides photo messages of the dried-up Khanzhenkovo reservoir, which supplied water to cities in DNR. This indicates a significant drought, impacting water supply for civilian populations and potentially military operations in the area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Illegal Logging (Ukraine Carpathians): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports large-scale illegal logging in Ukrainian Carpathians caused 55.8 million UAH in damages. This is an environmental issue, not directly war-related. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF:
  • Air Defense (AD): Fully engaged nationwide against multi-vector RF aerial assault, including Tu-95MS launched cruise missiles (24 confirmed), ballistic missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic missiles from MiG-31K, and OWA UAVs (Shahed, 426 confirmed). AD actively tracked multiple missile groups across multiple oblasts. Kyiv AD actively engaged approximately 10 inbound Shaheds and multiple missiles. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast AD shot down 14 UAVs (previously 7). President Zelenskyy reports UAF AD destroyed over 20 missiles and the "overwhelming majority" of drones (344 of 623 total aerial targets). Southern Defense Forces report 18 Shaheds destroyed in their operational zone. Air Force reports 224 targets shot down/suppressed, with 203 UAVs not reaching targets due to loss of localization/REB. Germany to provide 5 Patriot systems and ammunition. Norway ready to provide significant additional funding for Ukraine's air defense. UAF AF reports UAV threat for Kharkiv Oblast. Sili Oborony Pivdnya Ukraїny video shows Ukrainian soldiers operating a ZU-23 anti-aircraft gun mounted on a truck countering Russian Shahed drones in Mykolaiv area, claiming over 30 air targets neutralized. Air Defense is active in Odesa, engaging Shahed UAVs. Netherlands will make a significant contribution to US Patriot AD systems. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video of 31st Brigade anti-aircraft drone systems successfully attacking Russian drones in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. As of 06:00Z, 26 enemy UAVs have been shot down/suppressed, with 7 more failing to reach targets due to loss of localization/REB. Air Force confirmed 42 Russian UAVs attacked overnight. Enemy UAV in Black Sea, course to Odesa, AD engaged. UAV from northeast towards Sumy, with possible AD activity. Reconnaissance UAVs on northeast of Chernihiv and southeast of Kryvyi Rih. Air Force reports a likely reconnaissance UAV heading north towards Sumy city. Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. Means for their destruction have been engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showcasing the "Pomsta" (Revenge) Brigade of the State Border Guard Service (DPSU) using drone interceptors to hunt Russian UAVs, including ZALA, Supercam, and Orlan. The video shows successful engagements and the aftermath of a downed drone, confirming specialized counter-drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes a video showing a drone flying in the sky, with Ukrainian emblems and a QR code for donations, captioned "Signum unit of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade continuously stands guard over our sky!", indicating continued air defense and fundraising efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports Germany will transfer two Patriot systems if they can be quickly replaced, as stated by Pistorius. This indicates continued, albeit conditional, international AD support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports Germany's willingness to transfer two Patriot systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок reports German Defense Minister Pistorius is ready to quickly supply Kyiv with two Patriot systems, provided the US replaces them within 6-8 months. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ publishes a video showing a cockpit view from a fighter jet, likely a MiG-29 in Ukrainian Air Force markings, indicating continued UAF air patrols and readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Services: Actively engaged across multiple oblasts. Minister of Internal Affairs reports 15 fires due to Russian shelling, 13 liquidated. KMVA confirms rescue and emergency work ongoing nationwide. Cleanup and emergency services are working in Sumy. Confirmed images and videos from RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU show State Emergency Service (DSNS) personnel actively engaged in firefighting and damage assessment operations in Odesa. DSNS Ukraine confirms three injured, including a child, in Sumy. STERNENKO confirms one person injured in Odesa. DSNS and local authorities are actively engaged in Kramatorsk. Олексій Білошицький reports paramedics assisting a civilian in Sloviansk after a Russian attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing emergency responders aiding injured individuals, including a child, in a damaged residential building in Sumy, confirming active emergency response. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Control Measures: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats lifted, localized drone alerts persist. Public warnings for shelter ongoing. Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) providing updates; Lukyanivska metro station now fully reopened. Brig. Gen. Hennadiy Shapovalov appointed new commander of UAF Ground Forces. Ukraine plans to open four new embassies. Zelenskyy states new negotiations with Russia planned for Wednesday in Istanbul. Odesa Oblast Military Administration calls for residents to take shelter. ZAPORIZHZHIYA OBLAST MILITARY ADMINISTRATION HAS LIFTED AIR RAID ALERT. Kryvyi Rih mayor states situation is controlled. Generall Staff continues daily photos promoting nationwide moment of silence. RBC-Ukraine reports President Zelenskyy introduced NSDC decision on moratorium on baseless checks and interference by state bodies in business activities. Rustem Umierov will lead the Ukrainian delegation for negotiations with Russia, as stated by Zelenskyy. Rada considers bill to limit NABU/SAP powers today. Zelenskyy states focus on prisoner exchanges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports on the moratorium on business inspections, highlighting its implications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы reports on a proposal in the State Duma to allow pregnant women and mothers with children to park in handicapped spaces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Security Services: SBU and OGP conducting special operation to "neutralize Russian influence on NABU." Detention of NABU detective head (Ruslan Magamedrasulov) suspected of aiding RF. Over 70 searches conducted. SBU initiated comprehensive check on adherence to state secrets legislation in SAP. General Director of "Forests of Ukraine" served suspicion for illegal enrichment. Detention of NABU elite unit "D-2" employee suspected of spying for Russian special services confirmed. President Zelenskyy emphasized need for legal architecture to hold Russia accountable for war. Ukraine returned a teenager forcibly taken from Mariupol to Russia. G7 Ambassadors alarmed by NABU scandal. Ukrainian police helped neutralize pro-Russian hacker network NoName057(16). A court has remanded NABU employee Viktor Husarov into custody without bail. An employee of NABU's "most elite closed unit," suspected of treason, has had a pre-trial detention measure chosen. NABU Director Krivonos called on Zelenskyy not to sign bill limiting NABU and SAP powers. Prosecutor General's Office reports new facts of restricted information leaks from NABU. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора publishes a photo message stating the General Prosecutor's Office is systematically holding accountable individuals working for the enemy, highlighting the exposure and sentencing of "traitors." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes photo messages about an international police special operation that identified a "pseudominer" of facilities in Czechia, Slovakia, and Latvia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the court arrested the head of a NABU unit, suspected of aiding the aggressor state. This confirms continued action against internal threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора publishes photo messages related to a criminal organization with 9 drug labs and monthly turnover over 7 million UAH, indicating continued efforts by Ukrainian law enforcement to combat organized crime. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора also reports holding a meeting with G7 representatives, SBU, and SBI. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports that international partners have received answers regarding the work of Ukrainian law enforcement agencies and the recent special operation to neutralize Russian influence on NABU, as stated by Prosecutor General Kravchenko. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes a video showing a protest in Kyiv regarding the recently adopted bill limiting NABU and SAP powers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes photos and videos of protests in Kyiv, Dnipro, and Lviv against the bill limiting NABU/SAP powers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a video showing a protest in Kyiv against the bill limiting NABU/SAP powers, with a cynical pro-RF caption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС questions why Parliament (263 people) forgot why Russia attacked Ukraine, implying the NABU/SAP bill undermines the war effort. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: STERNENKO publishes photos showing SBU Head Vasyl Maliuk at a meeting with G7 representatives, reiterating the SBU's commitment to eradicating Russian agents in state bodies. This demonstrates continued focus on internal security and maintaining international trust. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: STERNENKO makes a political judgment by linking a Ukrainian MP to a pro-Russian figure, indicating a focus on internal political dynamics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports a Ukrainian Member of Parliament, Zheleznyak, stated 1000 Kyiv residents protested against the suppression of anti-corruption bodies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Foreign Volunteers: 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" claims 2,000 Colombians fighting in its ranks. TASS claims UAF deployed a platoon of "Latin American mercenaries" to Aleksandrovgrad, DNR, and then claims they fled. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing Ukrainian soldiers, identified as being of Latin American origin, participating in combat training exercises on Sumy region, with their commander stating 2,000 Colombian servicemen have come to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Resource Requirements: UAF National Guard's "Rubizh" brigade crowdfunding for "destroyed property and equipment." Zelenskyy emphasizes need for increased domestic production of weapons and drones (50% within six months). Ukraine needs $6 billion to cover gap in weapons procurement. Britain transferred $200 million of $940 million in air defense assets and artillery shells. Urgent fundraiser for drones for UAF 32nd Steel Brigade. French companies ready to start drone production in Ukraine. Canada will allocate $14.6 million USD for maintenance of Ukrainian tanks and finance Ukrainian defense industry. Canada will allocate $15 million for Leopard 2 tank repairs. NATO can provide additional funding for Ukrainian army. Netherlands provides €200M for interceptor drones and €125M for F-16 maintenance. Ukraine will need at least $120 billion for defense next year. РБК-Україна publishes a video appeal from the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade's artillery unit, requesting Electronic Warfare (EW) systems for combat tasks and safe logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO provides photo and video messages showing a new batch of 417 drones delivered to the front line, and military personnel unboxing mortar rounds/artillery shells and expressing gratitude for the support, indicating ongoing resupply efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна publishes a photo message stating that Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko claims up to 90% of strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this year were carried out by drones, highlighting the significant threat and resource strain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) DeepState reports Ukraine will need at least $120 billion for defense next year. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is crowdfunding for two copters for artillery reconnaissance for the 63rd Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO promotes a raffle for a drone pendant, encouraging donations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO further emphasizes the need for continued funding for drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Training: UAF 61st OMBr tank crews conducting rigorous training. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes multiple photos and captions about the role of a sergeant in the military, emphasizing training, motivation, and ideological conviction, likely promoting professional development and morale within the UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF 63rd Mechanized Brigade reports liquidation of 33 RF personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chernihiv: Colonelcassad reports TCC personnel violently detaining a man, indicating aggressive mobilization efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна provides an explanation from the AFU on why TCC conduct visits at concerts and exhibitions, indicating the ongoing need for mobilization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UK Sanctions: The UK has introduced new sanctions against 135 tankers belonging to Russia's "shadow fleet." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Losses: General Staff of UAF provides estimated total combat losses for RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade: Video suggests active counter-drone operations by the 47th Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showcasing the "Pomsta" (Revenge) Brigade of the State Border Guard Service (DPSU) using drone interceptors to hunt Russian UAVs, including ZALA, Supercam, and Orlan. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Domestic Production: Domestic 155-mm Bohdana-BG howitzers have entered service with the 40th Separate Artillery Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Psychological Operations: 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України released a video appealing to RF soldiers to surrender. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Corruption: President of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine suspended. Investigation into illegal coal mining completed. Official of "Forests of Ukraine" notified of suspicion for illegal enrichment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Drone Recruitment: DeepState publishes a recruitment video for the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade's unmanned systems unit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) DeepState promotes an 8-day free IT professions test drive, likely aimed at reskilling individuals for defense or IT sectors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Convict Mobilization: Approximately 9500 convicts have joined the AFU. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes a video showing a former convict detailing poor treatment and being forced into assault roles, suggesting challenges in the convict mobilization process. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukraine-Denmark Drone Interceptor: Ukraine and Denmark are developing an AI-powered drone interceptor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Prosecutor Investigation: Investigations launched into attacks on Odesa, Donetsk, and Sumy regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Currency Exchange Rates: Exchange offices lowered the USD rate and raised the EUR rate. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ramstein Meeting: Generals Staff publishes photo messages indicating participation of Ukrainian Minister of Defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Soldier with Weapon: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes photos aiming to boost morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chief of General Staff at Diplomatic Event: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes photos of Major General Andrii Hnatov speaking at a plenary session for heads of foreign diplomatic institutions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pension for Military Personnel: Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes information on pensions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • F-16 Project: Повітряні Сили ЗС України publishes video showcasing an F-16 fighter jet and mentions a "new project." RBC-Україна reports Air Force received first unique mobile complexes for F-16 maintenance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zelenskyy Meeting: Zelenskiy / Official publishes photo messages regarding a meeting on Ukraine's negotiation results and prisoner exchanges. Zelenskiy / Official posts a video of President Zelenskyy interacting with military personnel and civilians, presenting awards, reinforcing national unity and recognition of heroes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also publishes the same video from President Zelenskyy, further emphasizing the message of Ukrainian heroes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Occupant Targeting: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing aeroreconnaissance of the 4th battalion of the 101st Brigade targeting a Russian occupant. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes drone video showing a munition drop impacting a group of five Russian occupiers in tall grass, resulting in at least one fatality and multiple serious injuries, attributed to the 1st Separate Special Purpose Detachment of the Omega CSP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • STERNENKO Tactical Action: STERNENKO provides video from "Sanitary Zone Flying Skull" showing drones on fiber optics flying into enemy positions, destroying a car, motorcycle, and enemy property and ammunition. STERNENKO publishes drone footage showing an engagement using fiber-optic drones against an enemy target, resulting in an explosion and fire, indicating ongoing UAF tactical engagements and effective use of advanced drones. STERNENKO publishes a video showing an FPV drone strike on a Russian military individual, resulting in an explosion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Friendly Civilian Infrastructure: Олександр Вілкул publishes multiple photo messages related to thermal modernization of education facilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Military Administration (OTU "Kharkiv"): ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts a message stating "Treason is needed by the enemy, but the traitor is needed by no one!" ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes drone footage showing the Khartia brigade's engagement against enemy personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, publishes photo messages about strengthening partnership with the French Republic, with images of officials examining a model, suggesting diplomatic efforts to secure aid or cooperation for reconstruction/development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Front Reinforcement: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes photos showing reinforcement efforts at the Zaporizhzhia front, including military personnel and the distribution of drones and communication/EW equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запопорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a video message about strengthening the front in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including increasing the defense fund to 3 billion hryvnias, constructing an anti-drone road on the Orikhivskyyi highway, and plans for over 200 km of such infrastructure. Mentions a meeting with the Minister of Defense and President Zelenskyy's decision on Ukraine's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention (anti-personnel mines), stating daily production and delivery of 1,000-2,000 mine components. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Medical Front Forum: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes multiple photo messages from a forum titled "Medical Front: experience, challenges, future" held in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating focus on military medicine and support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes photo messages regarding the professional holiday for miners and metallurgists, and rewarding them for their work and assistance in supporting defense capabilities. This highlights civilian contribution to the war effort. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • FPV Storm: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes a video titled "FPV-storm from Slobozhansky paratroopers!", showing drone footage of an attack on a military target (possibly a vehicle or structure) in a wooded area, with explosions and smoke plumes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NABU/SAP Legislation: STERNENKO publishes photo messages showing the list of MPs who voted for the bill to limit the independence of NABU and SAP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes a video of a parliamentary session where the bill was voted on. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns claim Zelenskyy has signed the law liquidating the independence of anti-corruption bodies, reinforcing the narrative that the legislation has been enacted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO reports the court chose pre-trial detention without bail for Ruslan Magamedrasulov, a head of a NABU detective unit, until September 16. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Prisoner of War Affairs: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) publishes multiple photos from a meeting with the families of soldiers from the 150th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, indicating ongoing efforts to support families and address POW issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Public Health Campaign: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a public service announcement video on the dangers of tobacco and nicotine products, particularly for youth. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Video showcasing tactical effectiveness: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video with the caption "😎🇺🇦", depicting a car driving past smoke plumes in a dry landscape, likely a compilation of frontline footage for morale or information purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Drone strike footage: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes a video with the caption "Нові "шедеври" "Мосфільму"", showing a person wrapped in black plastic, bound to a tree, in camouflage, suggesting a potentially controversial or ambiguous image. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - as the content is ambiguous and not clearly military in nature).
  • Inter-regional cooperation: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes photos regarding a visit from Myroslav Biletskyi, Head of Zakarpattia Oblast Military Administration, indicating inter-regional cooperation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Israeli MFA Visit to Kyiv: РБК-Україна reports Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar has arrived in Kyiv. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms the visit of Israeli Foreign Minister. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar has arrived in Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Robot Medevac: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes a video demonstrating the 5th Separate Assault Kyiv Brigade using a ground robot for medical evacuation of a wounded soldier. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security Event: RBC-Ukraine reports the commander of the National Police assault brigade "Lyut" (Rage), Maksym Kazban, died in a traffic accident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RUF:
  • Deep Operations (UAV/Missile/Aviation Munitions): RF executing high-volume, multi-wave, multi-domain deep strike campaign. Included Tu-95MS strategic bomber launches (24 cruise missiles), sustained Shahed UAV attacks (426 confirmed), and re-engagement of MiG-31K for Kinzhal hypersonic missile launches against Western Ukraine and Kyiv (3 Kinzhals). Colonelcassad claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv. TASS claims RF forces used FABs against UAF reserve positions in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovets Oblast. KABs on Donetsk and Sumy Oblast. MoD Russia claims grouped strike with high-precision long-range air, ground, and sea-based weapons against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, and Sumy city. MoD Russia video shows Kub loitering munitions. Alex Parker Returns explicitly states intent to use "Geranium" (Shaheds) on frontline due to scaled production. Kotsnews publishes video claiming "Harpies are hunting." MoD Russia video shows drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) claims a powerful strike on a UAF training ground in Kirovohrad Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes video claiming a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike on a target in Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, with thick smoke billowing from a partially destroyed building, confirming continued RF kinetic activity in the area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS publishes video showing FPV drone operators from "Rubikon" center striking AFU armored vehicles and personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a large explosion and secondary explosions in a semi-urban/rural area, characteristic of a missile strike or heavy artillery impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS crew eliminating enemy targets on the right bank of Dnepr river. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes video claiming destruction of a UAV command post for the 34th Separate Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Antonivka, Kherson Oblast, using a LMUR (likely missile). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Aviation: RF airports lifted temporary restrictions. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claims 18 UAVs destroyed over Moscow; RF MoD claims 35 UAVs over RF territory were destroyed overnight. "Воин DV" claims bomber strikes in Yanvarskyi. TASS confirms Vnukovo airport resumed normal operations. TASS reports RF MoD claims 14 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kaluga, Bryansk, Tula, and Oryol Oblasts. Millerovo military airfield in Rostov Oblast attacked by drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a video showing a military aircraft, likely a fighter jet, in flight during low-light conditions, with apparent explosion or impact. Fighterbomber publishes video showing a military helicopter flying low over a field, likely conducting reconnaissance or attack operations. Fighterbomber publishes a photo message of winter-themed aerial footage, likely aimed at evoking a sense of calm or natural power, rather than direct military action. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Fighterbomber posts a photo message commemorating the 130th birthday of Pavel Osipovich Sukhoi, a Soviet aircraft designer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Operations (Popov Yar, Bila Hora claim, Malaya Tokmachka claim): RF Ministry of Defense claims ground forces liberated "Popov Yar." DeepState reports RF advances in Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, and near three other villages in Donetsk Oblast. MoD Russia provides video of servicemen from 102nd Motorised Rifle Regiment on Popov Yar. RF milbloggers claim RF has opened a new front in Kharkiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares thermal imagery video indicating activity on Chasiv Yar direction. Басурин о главном video confirms Russian military operations near Belaya Gora, claiming capture of foreign weapons. Liveuamap Source reports multiple clashes across Eastern axes. Colonelcassad claims a Russian breakthrough in Malaya Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. MoD Russia video shows T-72B3M tank crew destroying AFU stronghold near Zeleny Gai. STERNENKO video reports Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment holding back Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad claims assault troops of 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade advancing in Bila Hora area. Colonelcassad claims enemy is complaining about RF using lightweight 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from North Korea. DeepState analysis indicates RF army occupied Hrushevske and advanced near Voskresenka, Orikhove, Mayak and Zatyhka (formerly Suvorove) in Donetsk Oblast. TASS and MoD Russia claim RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske in DNR. Narodnaya милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles near Dachne. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны publish video claiming fierce battles, increased pace of advance, and destruction of enemy equipment and personnel near Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo publishes drone footage from the "Somali Battalion" showing damaged buildings and terrain, with individuals (presumed soldiers) moving in a semi-destroyed structure, culminating in an explosion within a building, indicating an engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: TASS reports RF forces advanced near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast, dislodging UAF units from several positions. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Popov Yar, Donetsk Oblast: TASS reports a group of Ukrainian servicemen surrendered. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • South-Donetsk Direction: Colonelcassad provides video footage of 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade's reconnaissance working in South-Donetsk direction, claiming destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports on the situation in the South-Donetsk direction, specifically the area of responsibility for the "Vostok" Group of Forces, without further detail on new activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pokrovsk: "Операция Z", WarGonzo, and Alex Parker Returns publish videos claiming RF DRG activity, with video suggesting an ambush on a UAF vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Рыбарь channel publishes a photo and video indicating "Russian infantry in Pokrovsk." The video, likely from a drone, shows a road intersection with a damaged/abandoned vehicle and several figures, suggesting RF ground presence or recent activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes video claiming to show drone footage of an AFU armored vehicle being engaged in Pokrovsk by AIRNOMADS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном publishes video claiming "underground forces" are burning UAF SUVs from Kramatorsk to Kyiv, with footage of a UAF SUV burning after an attack, indicating alleged deep rear operations by pro-RF elements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Varachino, Sumy Oblast: Операция Z and "Воин DV" claim Russian army liberated Varachino. This is an unverified RF claim. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: Colonelcassad publishes a video showing RF engineering-road platoon personnel engaged in demining operations in "liberated territory." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Luhansk Oblast: TASS reports that RF forces have built new fortifications and observation posts near Chervona Dibrova. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tactical Drone Operations: MoD Russia provides video showing "Feniks" (Phoenix) drone in action. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes drone video claiming the 305th Artillery Brigade using a Lancet loitering munition to strike a UAF Dana self-propelled howitzer, followed by additional fire from a "Hyacinth" artillery system. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes video claiming "exemplary work" of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 5th Guards Tank Brigade drone operators in destroying AFU armored vehicles and personnel near Alexandrovgrad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок claims destruction of a Ukrainian boat with personnel in Kherson direction using a fiber-optic FPV drone, indicating continued RF FPV operations against UAF small craft. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS publishes video showing FPV drone operators from "Rubikon" center striking AFU armored vehicles and personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном publishes a video showcasing the 'Omich' (Омич) robotic complex, a tracked ground vehicle for logistical and support roles, highlighting its terrain traversal, payload, and dual control, indicating continued RF focus on robotic ground vehicles for logistics and support, which can reduce personnel risk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes drone footage showing military vehicles moving along a road, some appearing to be trucks or transport vehicles, with evidence of anti-drone netting/camouflage. The caption states "🤙 Нарушение логистики и уничтожение техники идёт полным ходом!" (🤙 Disruption of logistics and destruction of equipment is in full swing!), implying successful RF counter-logistics operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Narodnaya милиция ДНР publishes a video claiming successful FPV drone strikes by a special forces unit on Ukrainian positions, equipment, and drones, highlighting effective tactical drone use. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad publishes drone footage from the "Centre" group showing explosions targeting enemy vehicles (SUV, tank) and positions (BABA-YAGA drone, STARLINK terminal), indicating adaptive targeting and effective engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a video appealing for donations for FPV drones and Starlink equipment for the 7th Airborne Division in the Zaporizhzhian direction. This indicates reliance on external support for these tactical assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar: Colonelcassad provides video footage claiming the destruction of a UAF UAV command post on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Belgorod Oblast: ASTRA reports two people injured by an FPV drone attack on a vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Eastern Ukraine: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Izium, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk were hit by RF strikes on military objects. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Armored Personnel Carrier Deployment: TASS publishes video showing an RF armored personnel carrier (APC) maneuvering. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle, moving along a road, with one appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) during movement, captioned: "Вывалился. Быть добру!" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Control Measures: RF maintained temporary flight restrictions, now being lifted. RF actively promoting narrative of successful counter-UAV measures. RF Prime Minister Mishustin announced ~180 billion rubles for border crossing point repairs. Moldovan national detained for transmitting data on RF Armed Forces to Kyiv. Man detained in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD facilities. Colonelcassad shares a photo of a monument dedicated to "Hitler's allies" in Moldova, accompanied by text criticizing it. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo message stating the State Duma has approved a law to block communications for subscribers with frozen bank accounts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Operations: "Операция Z" reports the Russian warship "Boykiy" escorted the tanker "General Skobelev" and the dry cargo ship "Sparta" from the Baltic Sea through the North Sea and English Channel to the Atlantic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Affairs: The Khabarovsk Krai Police has published photo messages detailing a criminal case regarding hooliganism. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that doctors in Voronezh saved a two-year-old child who swallowed 48 magnets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Economic Affairs: TASS reports Prime Minister Mishustin arrived in Chita to hold a meeting on grain exports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Religious Propaganda: "Операция Z" has published videos promoting Orthodox Christian traditions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Hacking Activity: TASS reports the detention of a young man in Novosibirsk for hacking information resources. ASTRA reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. TASS reports investigators opened a criminal case against an internet channel administrator for extortion and public justification of terrorism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора reports the author of a Volgograd Telegram channel was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism, indicating continued RF internal security measures against online dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Slovakia Gas: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Slovakia plans to receive up to 100% of its gas from Russia next year. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security: "Два майора" discusses the sentencing of Azerbaijani natives involved in organizing illegal migration. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Старше Эдды discusses the need for strict prohibition on migrant family members entering Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Political/Legal: TASS reports the death of Irina Podnosova, the Chairman of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation. TASS confirms the cause of death was cancer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the funeral of film director Yuri Kara in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports the Duma adopted an amendment fining citizens for disclosing state secrets in media. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the State Duma has adopted several laws aimed at preventing embezzlement and withdrawal of funds, focusing on increasing the effectiveness of combating such crimes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video showing film director Igor Bogomolov, husband of Ksenia Sobchak, calling the war with Ukraine "the luck and happiness of our generation," and noting Putin awarded him the title "Honored Artist of Russia" the next day. This indicates state recognition of pro-war cultural figures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Negotiations: TASS reports Peskov stated that the discussion of draft memorandums between Moscow and Kyiv will be the topic of negotiations in Istanbul. TASS also reports the Kremlin expects the new round of direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations to take place this week. TASS reports Peskov stated that Moscow and Kyiv need to work a lot before discussing prospects for a summit meeting. Colonelcassad publishes Peskov's statements on negotiations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dagestan, Russia: TASS reports 4 people, including 2 children, died in a car accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Milblogger (Culture): Народная милиция ДНР publishes a video on #КультураДНР, likely for internal morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Milblogger (Technology): Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition publishes a video on Russia's need for advanced technologies. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition calls for help with civilian engineering equipment at the front, indicating a logistical gap. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Tu-160: Fighterbomber publishes video of a Tu-160 strategic bomber flying at low altitude. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Folk Group: TASS publishes video of "Buranovskie Babushki" stating they are not afraid of "Myrotvorets." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • MLRS Barrage: MoD Russia publishes a video of Uragan MLRS hitting AFU positions near Temirovka, Zaporizhzhia region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS firing rockets, with a caption "220 millimeters of unreal emotions!", indicating its use in combat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a message with "⚡️ About migrants and fraudsters," likely related to internal security or social issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • St. Petersburg Theater: TASS video shows a street scene in front of the Mikhailovsky Theater in St. Petersburg, with a film crew. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tucker Carlson Interview: Басурин о главном shares a video clip of Tucker Carlson claiming Russia has "won" the confrontation with the West in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Military Offensive Pace: Сливочный каприз shares a chart titled "Pace of offensive operations of the Russian Armed Forces in the NWO zone. Advancement of the Russian Armed Forces, km² per day" showing an increase in daily advances in 2024-2025 compared to 2024. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes a chart showing the "Pace of offensive operations of the Russian Armed Forces in the NWO zone. Advancement of the Russian Armed Forces, km²/day" from July 2023 to July 2025. This chart indicates a generally increasing trend in the rate of Russian advances, with significant peaks in mid-2024 and mid-2025, reaching over 40 km²/day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Motorcycle Supplies: Colonelcassad publishes video showing a large quantity of new dirt bikes/motorcycles, implying significant logistical acquisition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Population Decline: TASS reports the global population will begin to decline from the 2040s, a challenge for the world economy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS publishes a photo message stating China's population may significantly decrease to 500-700 million by the end of the century due to a halved birth rate, as stated by Oreshkin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Public Wi-Fi: TASS reports the State Duma proposed a program for public Wi-Fi access points across Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Omsk Scam: TASS reports a scam in Omsk where 2.9 million rubles were stolen from an 18-year-old under the guise of flower delivery, with part of the money allegedly sent to aid Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sochi Detainee: ASTRA reports a Sochi resident arrested for "discrediting" the RF army was transferred to a psychiatric hospital after an alleged suicide attempt. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kursk Oblast: TASS reports the military court sentenced Lithuanian Bartkevichius to 23 years in absentia for desecrating a military grave and other terror-related crimes in Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора reports the acting governor of Kursk Oblast reports RF AD engaged Ukrainian targets in the sky and no casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sporting Event: TASS reports Russian synchronized swimmers took second place at the World Championship, the first time in 27 years they didn't win gold. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Beer Production: TASS publishes a photo message claiming Russia has displaced Germany from the top five largest beer producers in the world. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Law Enforcement Detention: Север.Реалии reports that detentions related to the case of leaking official information occurred in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Krasnodar Krai, and Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Azerbaijan Claims: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Azerbaijan has submitted evidence to Russia of torture and murder of two Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia: TASS reports mass events have been suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats of assassination attempts on servicemen by Ukrainian special services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volgograd Oblast: Два майора reports a Telegram channel author in Volgograd was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Steven Seagal: TASS reports actor Steven Seagal has left one of his last projects in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kaluga Oblast: Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on a crime involving migrant children in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Conscript Testimonial: Оперативний ЗСУ publishes a video of a Russian conscript detailing poor treatment and discipline, suggesting low morale and mistreatment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники publishes a video titled "❗️«Мы подписали контракт под давлением»: как обманывают срочников". This video features three young men, appearing to be soldiers, discussing their contract terms, difficulties terminating it, and alleged pressure, indicating potential morale and recruitment issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: MoD Russia publishes a video showing a captured AFU serviceman discussing foreign mercenaries (Japanese, Colombian, Polish, Irish, American, German) at a training center in Cherkassy region. This is likely an RF information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Z комитет + карта СВО publishes a tactical map of the Krasnoarmeyskoye direction, indicating areas of control and advances around #Suvorovo. This implies continued RF offensive pressure in this key area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo message related to a new State Duma law on fines for searching extremist content, including VPN use, and claims it will reduce fraudulent calls from Ukrainian call centers in Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr. This frames internal RF legislation as a response to external threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a daily summary (Сводка за день) for July 22. Specific details need to be extracted from the content for further analysis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad publishes photo message claiming the commander of the elite Ukrainian special purpose brigade "Lyut" (Rage), Colonel Maksym Kazban, was liquidated. This is an RF information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z further amplifies this, claiming the "leader of the Nazi brigade 'Lyut' self-liquidated." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Lipetsk Oblast: Игорь Артамонов reports an air danger regime has been introduced across the entire Lipetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sumy Oblast: RF conducted a strike on Sumy community's Kovpakivskyi district. Two explosions heard, likely from KABs, impacting residential area and causing damage to apartment building. Three injured, now increased to 12. Emergency services on site. 5 multi-story buildings, a shopping center, and 18 cars damaged. Threat of aviation munitions for Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. Colonelcassad reports "Anvar" unit operating in the border areas of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, providing drone footage of UAF positions, indicating continued RF reconnaissance and targeting efforts. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs are heading towards southeastern Sumy Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast (near Mena, Koryukivka), and a UAV from northeast towards Sumy, with possible AD activity. KAB launches confirmed on Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy: RBC-Ukraine and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publish video and photo evidence showing the aftermath of KAB strikes, confirming three injured, including a child. STERNENKO reports a woman was killed in Sumy due to a drone attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports RF attacked Sumy with drones in daylight, damaging a medical facility and playground. A woman and a child were injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a video showing a street scene in Sumy, with a Ukrainian flag overlay and Sumy regional emblem, with dialogue in Russian, likely for propaganda purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia launched another strike on Sumy Oblast, resulting in power outages for some consumers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing emergency responders aiding injured individuals, including a child, in a damaged residential building in Sumy following an RF attack, confirming 1 fatality and 10 injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports a woman died and others were injured due to a massive Russian UAV strike in Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy Direction: "Два майора" publishes FPV drone footage claiming to target a UAF soldier. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports a high-speed target heading towards Sumy from Kursk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports direction of target towards Khotin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Varachino, Sumy Oblast: Операция Z and "Воин DV" claim Russian army liberated Varachino, pushing UAF from Russian borders in Sumy Oblast. This is an unverified RF claim. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Sumy Oblast: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy UAVs in northern Sumy Oblast with possible AD activity. Air Force reports a likely reconnaissance UAV heading north towards Sumy city. Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. Means for their destruction have been engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in Chernihiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kryvyi Rih: Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 22.07.25. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Oleksandr Vilkul provides a briefing summary highlighting the controlled situation in Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Andriivka: Военкор Котенок shares civilian testimonial from displaced person, highlighting destruction and humanitarian impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Krasny Liman: Сливочный каприз publishes photo messages regarding Krasny Liman - Zelyonaya Dolina. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Odesa: Colonelcassad publishes multi-panel image related to Odesa, likely showing areas affected by strikes or for future targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Crimean Shores: "Два майора" publishes video showing military-style inflatable boat with personnel, indicating maritime operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Novomikhailovka: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of a woman mourning her son, a Russian SMO participant who died storming Novomikhailovka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Grushevske, Donetsk Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF army occupied Hrushevske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Dachne, Donetsk Oblast: Народная милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Toretsk Direction: Олексій Білошицький provides video captioned "Adventures of patrolmen in Toretsk direction🤙". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes a photo message lamenting a "terrible, irreparable and painful loss" in one of the best brigades in the Toretsk area, indicating UAF combat losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Lugansk (LNR): Рыбарь reports on an incident in Lugansk, without further details. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Mash на Донбассе reports a court recognized the "Kastus Kalinovsky Regiment" as a terrorist organization, indicating RF legal actions against Ukrainian-affiliated groups. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports a court in DNR recognized the "Kastus Kalinovsky Regiment" as a terrorist organization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Lithuania-Belarus Border: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА publishes graphic on Lithuanian military exercises near Belarus border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast: STERNENKO reports a gas worker, Igor Goncharenko, was killed by Russians in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Zaporizhzhia Front: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes photos showing continued reinforcement of the Zaporizhzhia front, with military personnel and equipment (drones, radio equipment). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a video message about strengthening the front in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including increasing the defense fund to 3 billion hryvnias, constructing an anti-drone road on the Orikhivskyyi highway, and plans for over 200 km of such infrastructure. Mentions a meeting with the Minister of Defense and President Zelenskyy's decision on Ukraine's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention (anti-personnel mines), stating daily production and delivery of 1,000-2,000 mine components. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Pokrovsk: Рыбарь channel publishes videos claiming to show Russian infantry in Pokrovsk. One video shows an aerial view of a road intersection with a damaged/abandoned vehicle and several figures, suggesting RF ground presence or recent activity. Another video appears to show a casual civilian drive with an injured arm visible, context unclear but low military significance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes drone footage showing an armored vehicle being engaged in Pokrovsk by AIRNOMADS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны publish video claiming fierce battles, increased pace of advance, and destruction of enemy equipment and personnel near Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Moscow: Север.Реалии publishes a video showing a protest in Moscow, with an activist being detained by police while holding a sign criticizing censorship and the war. Pro-Kremlin activists are attempting to disrupt the protest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukraine (Internal Affairs): Стрелков Игорь Иванович reports Ukrainian authorities have mandated UOC to declare a break with ROC by August 18, or face prohibition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: РБК-Україна reports a mass poisoning at Kutsurin's restaurant, with specialists identifying a number of violations. This is a civilian public health incident, not directly related to military operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kaluga Oblast: Alex Parker Returns reports a crime involving migrant children in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Luhansk Direction: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is crowdfunding for two copters for artillery reconnaissance in the Luhansk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.4. Recent Additions and Updates

• RF Year-Round Conscription (New): Alex Parker Returns and ASTRA report a draft law for year-round military conscription has been submitted to the State Duma. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that Kartapolov (Likely Duma Deputy Andrey Kartapolov) states year-round conscription will not increase the number of conscripts, but rather streamline the work of military commissariats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Communications Blocking (New): Alex Parker Returns reports a new law in Russia will block communications for subscribers with frozen bank accounts from September 1. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Odesa Flooding (New): RBC-Ukraine reports severe flooding in Odesa due to heavy rain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Military Hospital Operations (New): Воин DV publishes a video showing a military hospital providing medical care, supporting the narrative of soldier welfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF Ground Robot Medevac (New): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes a video demonstrating the 5th Separate Assault Kyiv Brigade using a ground robot for medical evacuation of a wounded soldier. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kyiv Protest (New): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO, and Alex Parker Returns publish videos and photos of a protest in Kyiv regarding the recently adopted bill limiting NABU and SAP powers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UPDATE: Два майора further confirms protests in Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Sumy, Chernivtsi, and Ternopil regarding the NABU/SAP bill. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports a Ukrainian Member of Parliament, Zheleznyak, stated 1000 Kyiv residents protested against the suppression of anti-corruption bodies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA also confirms protests against limiting NABU and SAP powers in several Ukrainian cities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Airport Disruptions (Updated): STERNENKO publishes multiple videos showing a crowded airport terminal in Moscow/St. Petersburg with many people sleeping on the floor, indicating severe travel disruptions from July 19-22 due to canceled flights. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Izium Military Warehouse Strike (New): Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports RF forces struck military warehouses in Izium, Kharkiv Oblast this morning (22 JUL 25). Video confirms partially destroyed building with smoke. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Offensive Pace (Updated): Colonelcassad publishes a chart showing a generally increasing trend in the rate of Russian advances (km²/day) in the "NWO zone" from July 2023 to July 2025, with significant peaks in mid-2024 and mid-2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Logistics Disruption Claim (New): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes drone footage claiming successful disruption of RF logistics and destruction of equipment, with video showing military vehicles and anti-drone netting/camouflage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Azerbaijani General Claim (New): Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo message claiming Azerbaijan published a photo of a Russian general, Major General Tolopilo (51st Air Defense Division commander), who allegedly shot down an Azerbaijani Airlines plane and was awarded for it. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• US Sanctions on Russia (New): Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the US House Speaker states no sanctions bills against Russia will be considered until Trump requests it. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• US Nuclear Return to UK (New): WarGonzo reports the US nuclear potential is returning to the UK. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ozzy Osbourne Death (New): ASTRA, Новости Москвы, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, and Басурин о главном report the death of musician Ozzy Osbourne at age 76. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Note: While civilian, the wide reporting by official/milblogger channels suggests it's being used as a normalcy operation in RF media). TASS explicitly declines military analysis of Ozzy Osbourne photo. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• InformNapalm/Hackers on Russian Companies (New): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports "InformNapalm" and "256 CyberStorm" hackers revealed lists of shadow Russian companies working in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Tactical Map - Krasnoarmeyskoye Direction (New): Z комитет + карта СВО publishes a tactical map indicating RF advances in the "Krasnoarmeyskoye direction" around #Suvorovo as of 22 July 2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Legislation vs. Ukrainian Call Centers (New): Alex Parker Returns highlights new State Duma law on extremist content fines, explicitly linking it to a reduction in fraudulent calls from Ukrainian call centers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF Losses in Toretsk Area (New): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a "terrible, irreparable and painful loss" in a Ukrainian brigade near Toretsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Captured AFU Serviceman Testimony (New): MoD Russia publishes a video of a captured AFU serviceman discussing foreign mercenaries (Japanese, Colombian, Polish, Irish, American, German) at a training center in Cherkassy region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Tactical Drone Engagements (New): Narodnaya милиция ДНР and Colonelcassad publish videos of successful RF FPV drone strikes against UAF positions, equipment, and drones, including a 'BABA-YAGA' drone and a 'STARLINK' terminal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Daily Summary (New): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a daily summary for July 22. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Chernihiv Reconnaissance UAV (New): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV detected in Chernihiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukrainian Public Health Incident (New): РБК-Україна reports a mass poisoning at Kutsurin's restaurant. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian Historical Revisionism (New): RBC-Ukraine reports on a "chief ideologist of Putin" revealing who is rewriting history for the dictator. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF UAV Command Post Destruction (New): Colonelcassad publishes video claiming destruction of a UAV command post for the 34th Separate Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Antonivka, Kherson Oblast, using a LMUR (likely missile). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Tactical Maps - Konstantinovskoye and Poltavka (New): Z комитет + карта СВО publishes tactical maps for "Konstantinovskoye direction" and "Poltavka" as of 22 JUL 25, indicating RF advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Claim of UAF Brigade Commander Liquidation (New): Colonelcassad and Операция Z claim the commander of the National Police assault brigade "Lyut", Colonel Maksym Kazban, was liquidated/self-liquidated. This directly contradicts Ukrainian reports of a traffic accident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Lipetsk Oblast Air Danger (New): Игорь Артамонов reports an air danger regime has been introduced across the entire Lipetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Milblogger FPV/Starlink Appeal (New): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a video appealing for donations for FPV drones and Starlink equipment for the 7th Airborne Division in the Zaporizhzhian direction, indicating a need for these resources on the RF side. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Strategic Drone/Missile/Aviation Munitions Strikes (Sustained, Adaptive, CRITICAL VOLUME & DEPTH, Now Multi-Warhead, WIDE GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE, Hypersonic Threat Resurfaced, Enhanced Saturation, FAB Use, NEW KINZHAL ON KYIV, Continued KAB use, Confirmed KAB on Kramatorsk, "Harpies" and Krasnoarmeysk UAV C2 targeting, Confirmed "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk/Izium, Orlivka strike by "Harpy" drones, Uragan MLRS strike on Temirovka, Civilian Casualties in Nova Kakhovka, Gas Facilities Attack, Repeated KAB launches in Donetsk/Kharkiv/Sumy, Strike on Kirovohrad Training Ground, Nikopol District Attacks, Rubikon FPV Drone Strikes, Grad MLRS on Dnepr Right Bank, LMUR on UAV C2): RF continues to demonstrate an extremely high capability for widespread, high-volume, multi-vector aerial attacks. The confirmed use of Tu-95MS strategic bombers for cruise missile launches (24 missiles), alongside continued massed Shahed drone attacks (426 total), and the re-engagement of MiG-31K for Kinzhal ballistic missile use indicates a sustained and robust deep strike capability. Their ability to simultaneously target Northern, Eastern, Central, and significantly Western Ukraine demonstrates coordination and resource availability. The confirmed use of X-101 with cluster munition warheads in Chernivtsi represents an escalation in lethality. The claimed use of FABs on UAF reserves in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates continued air-to-ground precision strike capability. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, confirming the capability to use hypersonic missiles against the capital. Colonelcassad also claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv. MoD Russia video shows Kub loitering munitions, detailing capabilities and warhead size. RF has adapted to use KABs against Sumy, Dobropillia and Kramatorsk. Continued use of strike UAVs against Eastern Dnipropetrovsk (Samarivskyi district), Poltava Oblast, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. The confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa indicates RF willingness to hit urban centers without specific military targets, or a failure of precision targeting. Ballistic missile threat confirmed for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and now Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi district). Kotsnews reporting on "Harpies" and their kinetic effect on a village, indicating a new, potent loitering munition or PGMs. MoD Russia also claims destruction of a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad's claim of "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk and associated smoke plume indicates continued widespread use of Shaheds against various targets. Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. Старше Эдды publishes drone video showing an FPV drone strike on a building, followed by a fire, and the Ukrainian flag on a damaged structure. Colonelcassad's video confirming "Harpy" drone use in Orlivka, Sumy Oblast. MoD Russia's video confirms Uragan MLRS use. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS firing rockets. WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a large explosion and secondary explosions in a semi-urban/rural area, characteristic of a missile strike or heavy artillery impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS crew eliminating enemy targets on the right bank of Dnepr river. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's claim of LMUR use against a UAV command post in Antonivka, Kherson Oblast, indicates the deployment of precision-guided missiles against high-value UAF C2 targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tactical Drone Capabilities (Enhanced, Counter-Drone, FPV Precision, Fiber-Optic Drones, Robotic Ground Vehicles): The reported destruction of a UAF D-20 howitzer in Kherson by an RF FPV drone ("Tuman") demonstrates RF's continued and effective tactical integration of drones for precision engagements against UAF artillery assets. The new focus on Rostov Oblast becoming a leader in UAV development, with military tech transfer to civilian applications and expanded production, highlights RF's strategic intent to massively scale its drone capabilities and industrial base. The FPV drone strike on a UAF soldier in Sumy direction and two injured in Belgorod by FPV drone further demonstrates precision targeting capabilities. MoD Russia's video of "Feniks" drone in action further confirms active development and deployment of tactical drones for reconnaissance and kinetic effects. Colonelcassad's claim of destroying a UAF UAV command post near Chasiv Yar indicates continued RF counter-drone capabilities. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights counter-drone capabilities. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's drone footage from Chasiv Yar direction indicates continued tactical drone operations. Воин DV's video claiming destruction of armored vehicles and personnel in Alexandrovgrad by 14th Guards Spetsnaz and 5th Guards Tank Brigade further emphasizes RF's advanced tactical drone integration for kinetic effects. Narodnaya милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles near Dachne, potentially with drones. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports the downing of a heavy "Baba Yaga" drone in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Nova Kakhovka drone strike, as per WarGonzo, shows RF drone strike capabilities against ground targets. Colonelcassad's video on "Harpy" drones confirms their tactical deployment for strikes on personnel and vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes drone video claiming the 305th Artillery Brigade using a Lancet loitering munition to strike a UAF Dana self-propelled howitzer, followed by additional fire from a "Hyacinth" artillery system. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a photo message showcasing a new anti-drone system from Rostec, capable of localized signal suppression, indicating advanced counter-drone R&D. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок claims destruction of a Ukrainian boat with personnel in Kherson direction using a fiber-optic FPV drone, indicating the use of advanced FPV drones with potential for extended range/persistence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS publishes video showing FPV drone operators from "Rubikon" center striking AFU armored vehicles and personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном publishes a video showcasing the 'Omich' (Омич) robotic complex, a tracked ground vehicle for logistical and support roles, highlighting its terrain traversal, payload, and dual control, indicating continued RF focus on robotic ground vehicles for logistics and support, which can reduce personnel risk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes drone footage showing military vehicles moving along a road, some appearing to be trucks or transport vehicles, with evidence of anti-drone netting/camouflage. The caption states "🤙 Нарушение логистики и уничтожение техники идёт полным ходом!" (🤙 Disruption of logistics and destruction of equipment is in full swing!), implying successful RF counter-logistics operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Narodnaya милиция ДНР publishes a video claiming successful FPV drone strikes by a special forces unit on Ukrainian positions, equipment, and drones, highlighting effective tactical drone use. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad publishes drone footage from the "Centre" group showing explosions targeting enemy vehicles (SUV, tank) and positions (BABA-YAGA drone, STARLINK terminal), indicating adaptive targeting and effective engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's appeal for FPV drones and Starlink suggests these are critical, in-demand assets for RF frontline units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare (Aggressive, Psychological, and Exploitative, Adaptive, Expanding Scope, Exploiting Internal Ukrainian Issues, Targeting Foreign Policy Debates, Leveraging US Politics, Internal Political Control, Normalization): RF continues to use its military actions to bolster its narrative. Messaging from milbloggers directly aims to terrorize the population and undermine Ukrainian morale, while simultaneously attempting to project overwhelming force and futility of Ukrainian resistance. Dissemination of claimed UAF equipment losses (e.g., Bradley BMP) and drone losses ("Baba Yaga" drones), including the destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit in South-Donetsk direction and a D-20 howitzer in Kherson, and a UAF UAV command post, and AFU armored vehicles near Dachne, further reinforce this narrative. RF state media leverages UAF drone attacks on Russian territory to portray Russia as a victim and justify its actions. RF sources promote narratives of internal corruption and social friction within Ukraine (now specifically claiming NABU loses Western "roof" due to Trump, and Zelenskyy signed law liquidating anti-corruption bodies). Propaganda focuses on internal RF stability and development. Continued use of historical revisionism. Claims of ground advances (Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Malaya Tokmachka, Starytsia, Varachino, Hrushevske, Novotoretske, Krasnoarmeysk infiltration, Konstantinovskoye, Poltavka) and effective DRG ambushes in contested areas (Pokrovsk, Krasnoarmeysk) are heavily publicized. RF milbloggers employ cynical/mocking language to demoralize Ukrainian audiences. RF attempts to exploit perceived US weakness in drone tactics. Internal RF information operations counter perceived "traitors." RF channels publish content projecting public support. TASS actively uses claimed UAF POW statements to portray desertion and low morale within Ukrainian ranks. RF is attempting to leverage historical monuments in Moldova to portray Ukraine as allied with Nazis. TASS is attempting to influence US political discourse by amplifying statements like Jeffrey Sachs' comments on Trump and Ukraine. TASS is now actively promoting civilian news, such as Russia's representation at an international music contest, likely to normalize the information environment and divert attention from military operations. The publication of a POW interrogation video by TASS (Yevgeny Popelyshkin) indicates RF's continued and adaptable capability to exploit captured personnel for psychological operations, aiming to sow discord and undermine UAF command effectiveness. RF will continue to leverage civilian testimonials, as seen from Kursk Oblast and Mash on Donbas, and now Andriivka, to portray itself as a victim of Ukrainian aggression and to justify its military actions to its domestic audience. RF is increasingly using cultural and religious narratives to foster internal unity and traditional values, as seen with promotion of Orthodox Christian traditions and news about spiritual-moral culture in schools. TASS claims average of 400 UAF strikes on RF civilian objects per day. The new reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia is likely to be leveraged by RF to show continued European reliance and economic influence. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed to project stability and resilience despite high-level losses. RF milbloggers will likely continue to question the effectiveness of Western AD (e.g., Patriot against Kinzhal). Alex Parker Returns' military recruitment videos demonstrate continued information operations to attract personnel. TASS reporting on detentions for monument desecration in Crimea is part of this narrative. TASS reporting on the appeal of a billionaire in a bribery case also frames the internal legal system as functioning. The FSB's claims of thwarting Ukrainian special services are intended to project internal security effectiveness. The detention of a former presidential candidate's staff member highlights RF's control over its political information space. The new criminal cases against a former Deputy Minister of Defense demonstrate the state's willingness to publicize internal corruption issues. News from Moscow criticizing EU "brain drain" highlights economic information operations. TASS reports on the US Congress Epstein case (internal US political issue) and the death of Polish General Skrzypczak (cynically framed) demonstrating an adaptive ability to leverage disparate events for propaganda. RF MFA statements reflect continued adaptive diplomatic narratives. FSB detentions and subsequent propaganda videos demonstrate rapid adaptation for internal security and counter-intelligence messaging. Raids on "Baza" publication further highlight suppression of independent media and control over information flow, confirmed by the arrest of the editor-in-chief. TASS also provides video showing the situation at the Baza office. TASS reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 indicates continued RF narrative exploitation of personal tragedies to question the conflict. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF uses civilians as human shields. Colonelcassad uses derogatory term "Narkofyurer" (Narcodictator) for Zelenskyy. TASS reports Peskov's statements on Istanbul negotiations control the narrative. TASS also reports Trump plans to withdraw the US from UNESCO due to its "anti-American vector." TASS reports on Milan Mayor Sala's corruption suspicions. TASS reports Gazmanov's call for artists to support SMO fighters for moral support. TASS reports the ban on child toy sales in Kandahar, Afghanistan. WarGonzo reports on the Russia-China-Iran nuclear meeting. Басурин о главном publishes video "Catching traitors and enemies of Russia," showing arrests and interrogations related to terrorist acts. Басурин о главном leveraging Tucker Carlson's statement is a new adaptive information tactic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports three injured in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF strike, which will be leveraged to emphasize RF victimhood. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, reinforcing the narrative of external threats and justifying internal security measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора reports the author of a Volgograd Telegram channel was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism, reinforcing the narrative of combating internal extremism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on migrant crime in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend" to stir social unrest and criticize migration policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump, by rejecting Ukraine's NATO membership, swayed it towards negotiations with Russia. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception and suggest US/Ukraine disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном highlights a State Duma Deputy's request to investigate a perfume company for potentially funding the AFU, indicating RF's expanding scope of internal information operations to identify and suppress perceived threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z reports that Ukrainian MP Skorokhod admitted that TCC "beat mobilized people to death" across Ukraine, an RF information operation aimed at creating internal Ukrainian disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns posts an image with text that translates to "The puzzle has come together. Inside information.", which likely refers to an internal RF information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video showing film director Igor Bogomolov, husband of Ksenia Sobchak, calling the war with Ukraine "the luck and happiness of our generation," and noting Putin awarded him the title "Honored Artist of Russia" the next day. This signals the use of cultural figures to bolster pro-war sentiment and justify the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a photo message containing a statement from the former Polish Land Forces Commander Skrzypczak, highlighting his calls to attack Belarus and Kaliningrad, used to vilify foreign military figures and reinforce the narrative of external threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump is likely to visit China soon, and did not exclude talks with Putin during this visit. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception of RF's diplomatic standing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump called on the US Department of Justice to investigate Obama for manipulating intelligence data related to US elections and Russia. This is a direct attempt to leverage US internal political divisions for RF's information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad states that the newly appointed PM Yulia Svrydenko's claim that corruption is exaggerated in Ukrainian society is a lie, continuing the "Ukrainian corruption" narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews publishes a graphic titled "EVENING BELL" with text criticizing Ukrainian authorities. This is a common RF information operation tactic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports the US House Speaker states no sanctions bills against Russia will be considered until Trump requests it, indicating RF's continued influence operations on US foreign policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном posts a photo message with the caption "Гудбай, ЮНЕСКО! Навсегда?", referring to Trump's potential withdrawal of the US from UNESCO, which is a common RF information operation to highlight perceived Western disarray. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the death of musician Ozzy Osbourne, which is a civilian news item, but its dissemination by TASS could be a low-effort attempt to project normalcy and divert attention. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) NEW: MoD Russia publishes a video showing a captured AFU serviceman discussing foreign mercenaries. This is a direct RF information operation to create doubt and demoralize Ukrainian forces and their international partners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo illustrating a Duma legislative session, accompanied by text detailing new fines for searching extremist content, including VPNs, and claiming it will reduce fraudulent calls from Ukrainian call centers. This frames internal RF legal actions as a counter to hybrid threats from Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Рыбарь posts a photo message titled "Цена предательства" (The Price of Betrayal) with a stylized graphic, indicating an ongoing information operation focused on loyalty and deterrence against perceived betrayal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's claim of the "liquidation" of Colonel Maksym Kazban, commander of the "Lyut" brigade, coupled with derogatory language ("banderovets"), is a clear and immediate RF information operation to undermine UAF leadership and morale, particularly by presenting a death as a military success when Ukrainian sources report a traffic accident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z's amplification of the "self-liquidated" narrative regarding Kazban further cements this disinformation campaign. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine's reporting on the "chief ideologist of Putin" rewriting history indicates a Ukrainian counter-narrative focusing on RF's information manipulation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Artillery Systems (New): Colonelcassad's claim of the use of 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from North Korea indicates a continued and potentially expanding capability to field new or additional artillery systems, potentially supplied by external actors. MoD Russia's video confirms Uragan MLRS use. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS firing rockets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports continued RF use of artillery and FPV drones in Nikopol district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS crew eliminating enemy targets on the right bank of Dnepr river. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Border Operations: The identified "Anvar" unit operating in Sumy/Chernihiv border regions demonstrates RF's persistent capability for localized reconnaissance and targeting operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in Chernihiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Legal Measures & Internal Control: TASS reporting on the in absentia charging of a blogger for promoting terrorism in Dagestan indicates RF's continued capability and willingness to use legal mechanisms to control internal narratives. The Khabarovsk Krai Police reporting on a criminal case indicates continued focus on domestic law and order. The detention of a hacker in Novosibirsk indicates continued focus on cyber security. TASS reports searches at Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko's home, suggesting internal anti-corruption or security operations. "Два майора" discusses sentencing related to illegal migration, indicating internal security focus. The reporting on the death of the Supreme Court Chairman highlights the functioning of the RF legal system. The detentions in Crimea for monument desecration underscore RF's efforts to control historical narratives. The detention of a migrant in Tyumen and the appeal of a billionaire in a bribery case indicate continued application of internal law enforcement. The FSB's claims of thwarting Ukrainian special services are intended to project internal security effectiveness. The detention of a former presidential candidate's staff member highlights RF's control over its political information space. The new criminal cases against a former Deputy Minister of Defense for corruption highlight RF's legal mechanisms for internal accountability. Putin's toughening of rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports indicates increased state control over economic interfaces. RF MFA's expanded list of banned EU officials is another example of diplomatic-legal measures. Raids on "Baza" media outlet, and the subsequent arrest of its editor-in-chief, signify an escalated and adaptive control over internal information flows and suppression of independent media. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. TASS reports that the acceptance of applications for IT deferrals from military service has begun. ASTRA reports a pensioner from Izhevsk was sentenced for treason but released due to health. TASS reports State Duma adopted law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. TASS reports Duma adopted an amendment fining citizens for disclosing state secrets in media. TASS reports no plans to block foreign messengers, but compliance with requirements. TASS reports investigators opened a criminal case against an internet channel administrator for extortion and public justification of terrorism. TASS reports the military court sentenced Lithuanian Bartkevichius to 23 years in absentia for desecrating a military grave and other terror-related crimes in Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, indicating proactive legal measures against perceived threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора reports the author of a Volgograd Telegram channel was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism, demonstrating continued legal enforcement against online content. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the chief editor of the Ryazan online publication "Svoy Kolokolny" (Svoy kolokolnya) Komarov was detained in an extortion case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports a local resident was detained in Veliky Novgorod for planning to join the "Russian Volunteer Corps", a Ukrainian organization banned in Russia. The video shows what appears to be an interrogation, suggesting intelligence/security operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a draft law for year-round conscription has been submitted to the State Duma. This indicates RF is formalizing and potentially expanding its conscription system to sustain personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы publishes a photo message stating a draft law for year-round military conscription has been submitted to the State Duma. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора publishes video claiming a "PLO-OPG" (presumably criminal group) was exposed in Blagoveshchensk, involved in harassing locals, indicating internal law enforcement activity against criminal elements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the arrest of Konstantin Kuranov, Minister of Transport and Road Management for Novgorod Oblast, on bribery charges. ASTRA provides photo confirmation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports the arrest of Konstantin Kuranov, Minister of Transport and Road Management of Novgorod Oblast, for bribery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports blogger Dud is заочно (in absentia) accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports Yuri Dud is заочно (in absentia) accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo message stating the State Duma has approved a law to block communications for subscribers with frozen bank accounts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Counter-UAV Capabilities: The successful repulsion of UAV attacks in Rostov-on-Don, Millerovo, Donetsk (Rostov Oblast), and Azov district, as well as three UAVs over Tula Oblast, indicates RF's continued capability to defend against UAF drone incursions. RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight, including nine over Bryansk Oblast. The FPV drone attack in Belgorod and on Samara Oblast indicates that while RF has AD capabilities, UAF drones can still penetrate and cause damage. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights counter-drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a video showing a military aircraft, likely a fighter jet, in flight during low-light conditions, with apparent explosion or impact. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a photo message showcasing a new anti-drone system from Rostec, capable of localized signal suppression, indicating advanced counter-drone R&D. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Port Operations in Occupied Territories: The continued operation of Mariupol port, even if understaffed, demonstrates RF's capability to restore and utilize critical infrastructure in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Projection: The escort operation by the Steregushchiy-class corvette "Boykiy" demonstrates RF's capability to project naval power and secure logistical routes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • ELINT Capabilities: Colonelcassad's video claiming successful UAF liquidation via radio intercepts indicates RF possesses and utilizes effective Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) capabilities for targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Maneuver Capability (Tactical): TASS video showing an RF APC maneuvering in open terrain indicates continued tactical ground force mobility. Басурин о главном's report of Russian reconnaissance entering Krasnoarmeysk indicates a capability for deep infiltration by special groups. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video confirms Russian reconnaissance and DRG activity in Krasnoarmeysk, with video suggesting an ambush on a UAF vehicle. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle, moving along a road, with one appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) during movement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Сливочный каприз" publishes video of a destroyed settlement with a person carrying a Russian flag, captioned "Konstantinovka - Belaya Gora," suggesting RF ground presence and tactical gains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном publishes video claiming "underground forces" are burning UAF SUVs from Kramatorsk to Kyiv, with footage of a UAF SUV burning after an attack, indicating alleged deep rear operations by pro-RF elements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Z комитет + карта СВО publishes a tactical map of the Krasnoarmeyskoye direction, indicating areas of control and advances around #Suvorovo, which suggests continued RF ground maneuver capability in this key offensive direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF advances in Konstantinovskoye and Poltavka directions confirm continued ground pressure and advances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Long-Term Military Budgeting: Budanov's report on Russia's plan to spend $1.1 trillion USD on rearmament by 2036 indicates a long-term, significant commitment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Hydropower (Occupied Territories): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок reports "Naftogaz" states that an important gas production facility was attacked last night with "dozens of drones." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Recent tactical changes or adaptations

• Geographic Expansion into Western Ukraine, Multi-Platform Coordination & Diversionary Tactics (CRITICAL - Including Hypersonic Missile & Cluster Munitions, New FAB Use, NEW KINZHAL ON KYIV, Continued KAB use, Confirmed KAB on Kramatorsk, "Harpies" and Krasnoarmeysk UAV C2 targeting, Confirmed "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk/Izium, Orlivka strike by "Harpy" drones, Uragan MLRS strike on Temirovka, Civilian Casualties in Nova Kakhovka, Gas Facilities Attack, Repeated KAB launches in Donetsk/Kharkiv/Sumy, Strike on Kirovohrad Training Ground, Nikopol District Attacks, Rubikon FPV Drone Strikes, Grad MLRS on Dnepr Right Bank, LMUR on UAV C2): Expansion of strategic missile strikes deep into Western Ukraine concurrently with Shahed waves, and re-engagement of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles from MiG-31K targeting deep Western Ukraine and now Kyiv, indicates continued and enhanced adaptation of multi-platform, coordinated deep strikes. Confirmed use of X-101 with cluster munition warheads in Chernivtsi is a critical tactical adaptation. Claimed use of FABs on UAF reserves in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast suggests expansion of precision aviation strikes into central Ukraine. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025. Colonelcassad's claim of a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv confirms tactical adaptation to target UAF domestic defense production. RF has adapted to use KABs against Sumy, Dobropillia and Kramatorsk. Continued use of strike UAVs against Eastern Dnipropetrovsk (Samarivskyi district), Poltava Oblast, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. Kotsnews reporting on "Harpies" indicates adaptation to new PGM/loitering munitions. MoD Russia's claim of destroying a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad's claim of "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk and associated smoke plume indicates continued adaptable use of Shaheds. Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. Старше Эдды publishes drone video showing an FPV drone strike on a building, followed by a fire, and the Ukrainian flag on a damaged structure. Colonelcassad's video confirming "Harpy" drone use in Orlivka, Sumy Oblast, indicates an adaptive deployment of new drone types for localized strikes. MoD Russia's video shows continued use of MLRS. WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports RF attacked Sumy with drones in daylight, damaging a medical facility and playground. This indicates an adaptive change to daylight drone attacks on civilian areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts, confirming continued and adaptive use of guided bombs against these regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes video showing residents of Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, visually monitoring a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike on a Ukrainian "occupation formation" object. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) claims a powerful strike on a UAF training ground in Kirovohrad Oblast, indicating adaptive targeting of UAF training infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports continued RF use of artillery and FPV drones in Nikopol district, confirming adaptive mixed kinetic attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS publishes video showing FPV drone operators from "Rubikon" center striking AFU armored vehicles and personnel. This highlights continued RF kinetic adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV reports RF forces active in Krasnoarmeysk direction, claiming to disable Starlink communications for 25th Airborne Brigade. This indicates a new tactical adaptation to disrupt UAF communications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a large explosion and secondary explosions in a semi-urban/rural area, characteristic of a missile strike or heavy artillery impact, demonstrating adaptive kinetic capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS crew eliminating enemy targets on the right bank of Dnepr river. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Narodnaya милиция ДНР publishes a video claiming successful FPV drone strikes by a special forces unit on Ukrainian positions, equipment, and drones, highlighting effective tactical drone use. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad publishes drone footage from the "Centre" group showing explosions targeting enemy vehicles (SUV, tank) and positions (BABA-YAGA drone, STARLINK terminal), indicating adaptive targeting and effective engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's use of LMURs against a UAF UAV command post in Antonivka, Kherson Oblast, demonstrates an adaptive tactical shift to target UAF C2 nodes for drones with precision-guided munitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The introduction of an air danger regime in Lipetsk Oblast indicates a tactical adaptation by RF to regional UAF deep strikes or reconnaissance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Increased Shahed Volume on Kyiv, Southern Ukraine, and now Kharkiv: Increase in Shahed UAVs targeting Kyiv, emergence of new Shahed groups in Black Sea towards Southern Ukraine, and new groups towards Kharkiv indicates intent to increase saturation. New Shahed threat for Dnipropetrovsk indicates continued spread of drone activity. Alex Parker Returns explicitly states intent to use "Geraniums" (Shaheds) on the frontline due to increased production. Further Shahed activity now reported heading towards Pavlohrad from Zaporizhzhia Oblast and new groups inbound to Mykolaiv and Odesa. The confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa highlights continued adaptive targeting. Сили оборони Півдня України reports continued Shahed use in the Southern direction. RF milblogger blaming UAF AD for civilian damage in Odesa is a new adaptive information tactic. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Air Force reports a likely reconnaissance UAV heading north towards Sumy city, indicating adaptive reconnaissance efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ballistic Missile Re-engagement on Kyiv and Hypersonic Missile on Western Ukraine and NOW Kyiv: Re-engagement of ballistic missiles on Kyiv and use of Kinzhal hypersonic missile on Ivano-Frankivsk and now Kyiv indicates escalation in munitions. Latest ballistic missile threat for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates continued targeting. Ballistic missile threat for Kyiv declared from Northeast (now lifted). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports high-speed target from Kursk Oblast heading southwest in Sumy Oblast. Ballistic missile threat lifted for all areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Operations (Exploitative & Adaptive, Internal Focus, Expanding to US Internal Politics, Information Control Escalation, Targeting Cultural Figures, Leveraging US Politics, Internal Political Control, Normalization): RF adapted its information operations to exploit UAF deep strikes on Moscow, using lifting of airport restrictions as propaganda, while intensifying demoralizing rhetoric. RF state media disseminating video of claimed ground operations and drone intercept claims. RF milbloggers adapting to exploit non-military events for propaganda. RF is adapting its internal propaganda to address perceived issues and maintain support, including through cultural events and promoting civilian services. RF is highlighting US statements on Iran to justify its own geopolitical positioning. Introduction of civilian normalization narratives (music contest, sports/playground development, teacher compensation, airport normalization, funeral of Yuri Kara, Chechen festival, new Moskvich car sales, airport recreation zones, 4-day work week benefits, 4-day work week proven beneficial, IT deferrals, Supreme Court memorial, Yuri Kara funeral, domestic banana saplings) to divert attention. The rapid dissemination of the captured UAF soldier's statement by TASS demonstrates RF's immediate adaptation of new opportunities for psychological warfare. The deployment of civilian testimonials about alleged UAF shelling in border regions and now from conflict-affected Donbas (Mash on Donbas) and Andriivka is a new adaptation for RF information operations. RF is increasingly using cultural and religious narratives to foster internal unity and support for its operations. TASS claims average of 400 UAF strikes on RF civilian objects per day. The new reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia is likely to be leveraged by RF. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed as a natural occurrence, with emphasis on continuity. RF milbloggers actively questioning the effectiveness of Western AD (e.g., Patriot against Kinzhal). Alex Parker Returns' military recruitment videos demonstrate continued information operations to attract personnel. TASS reporting on detentions for monument desecration in Crimea is part of this narrative. TASS reporting on the appeal of a billionaire in a bribery case also frames the internal legal system as functioning. The FSB's claims of thwarting Ukrainian special services are intended to project internal security effectiveness. The detention of a former presidential candidate's staff member highlights RF's control over its political information space. The new criminal cases against a former Deputy Minister of Defense demonstrate the state's willingness to publicize internal corruption issues. News from Moscow criticizing EU "brain drain" highlights economic information operations. TASS reports on the US Congress Epstein case (internal US political issue) and the death of Polish General Skrzypczak (cynically framed) demonstrating an adaptive ability to leverage disparate events for propaganda. RF MFA statements reflect continued adaptive diplomatic narratives. FSB detentions and subsequent propaganda videos demonstrate rapid adaptation for internal security and counter-intelligence messaging. Raids on "Baza" media outlet, and the arrest of its editor-in-chief, signify an escalated and adaptive control over internal information flows and suppression of independent media. TASS also provides video showing the situation at the Baza office. TASS reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 indicates continued RF narrative exploitation of personal tragedies to question the conflict. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF uses civilians as human shields. Colonelcassad uses derogatory term "Narkofyurer" (Narcodictator) for Zelenskyy. TASS reports Peskov's statements on Istanbul negotiations control the narrative. TASS also reports Trump plans to withdraw the US from UNESCO. TASS reports on Milan Mayor Sala's corruption suspicions. TASS reports Gazmanov's call for artists to support SMO fighters for moral support. TASS reports the ban on child toy sales in Kandahar, Afghanistan. WarGonzo reports on the Russia-China-Iran nuclear meeting. Басурин о главном publishes video "Catching traitors and enemies of Russia." Басурин о главном leveraging Tucker Carlson's statement is a new adaptive information tactic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports three injured in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF strike, which will be leveraged to emphasize RF victimhood. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, reinforcing the narrative of external threats and justifying internal security measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора reports detention of a Telegram channel author in Volgograd for extortion and public justification of Nazism, reinforcing the narrative of combating internal extremism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on migrant crime in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend" to stir social unrest and criticize migration policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump, by rejecting Ukraine's NATO membership, swayed it towards negotiations with Russia. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception and suggest US/Ukraine disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном highlights a State Duma Deputy's request to investigate a perfume company for potentially funding the AFU, indicating RF's adaptive expansion of internal scrutiny. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z reports that Ukrainian MP Skorokhod admitted that TCC "beat mobilized people to death" across Ukraine, an RF information operation aimed at creating internal Ukrainian disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns posts an image with text that translates to "The puzzle has come together. Inside information.", which likely refers to an internal RF information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video showing film director Igor Bogomolov, husband of Ksenia Sobchak, calling the war with Ukraine "the luck and happiness of our generation," and noting Putin awarded him the title "Honored Artist of Russia" the next day. This signals the use of cultural figures to bolster pro-war sentiment and justify the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a photo message containing a statement from the former Polish Land Forces Commander Skrzypczak, highlighting his calls to attack Belarus and Kaliningrad, used to vilify foreign military figures and reinforce the narrative of external threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump is likely to visit China soon, and did not exclude talks with Putin during this visit. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception of RF's diplomatic standing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump called on the US Department of Justice to investigate Obama for manipulating intelligence data related to US elections and Russia. This is a direct attempt to leverage US internal political divisions for RF's information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad states that the newly appointed PM Yulia Svrydenko's claim that corruption is exaggerated in Ukrainian society is a lie, continuing the "Ukrainian corruption" narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews publishes a graphic titled "EVENING BELL" with text criticizing Ukrainian authorities. This is a common RF information operation tactic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports the US House Speaker states no sanctions bills against Russia will be considered until Trump requests it, indicating RF's continued influence operations on US foreign policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном posts a photo message with the caption "Гудбай, ЮНЕСКО! Навсегда?", referring to Trump's potential withdrawal of the US from UNESCO, which is a common RF information operation to highlight perceived Western disarray. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the death of musician Ozzy Osbourne, which is a civilian news item, but its dissemination by TASS could be a low-effort attempt to project normalcy and divert attention. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) NEW: MoD Russia publishes a video showing a captured AFU serviceman discussing foreign mercenaries. This is a direct RF information operation to create doubt and demoralize Ukrainian forces and their international partners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo illustrating a Duma legislative session, accompanied by text detailing new fines for searching extremist content, including VPNs, and claiming it will reduce fraudulent calls from Ukrainian call centers. This frames internal RF legal actions as a counter to hybrid threats from Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Рыбарь posts a photo message titled "Цена предательства" (The Price of Betrayal) with a stylized graphic, indicating an ongoing information operation focused on loyalty and deterrence against perceived betrayal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's immediate claim of "liquidation" of a UAF brigade commander, contradicting Ukrainian reports, indicates a rapid and adaptive information operation to capitalize on UAF losses, regardless of cause. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine's reporting on "Putin's chief ideologist" rewriting history indicates a Ukrainian counter-narrative and an adaptation to directly challenge RF's historical revisionism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "Disunity within Ukraine" Narrative: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" attempts to project internal disunity. Alex Parker Returns posts video related to TCC and Romani people, and is now actively promoting a narrative about UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky having his parents treated in Moscow. RF claims Ukraine has run out of cemetery space. The dissemination of footage showing a violent TCC detention in Chernih by Colonelcassad indicates RF's continued and immediate adaptation to exploit internal Ukrainian social tensions. TASS's unverified claim of a UK-trained UAF unit being destroyed in Dnipropetrovsk is another example. Операция Z's claim about NABU losing Western "roof" due to Trump is a direct adaptive disinformation campaign. TASS report claiming Latin American mercenaries fled Alexandrovgrad is an adaptive narrative. TASS reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. Операция Z's information operation about "traitors-Nazis from Russia" being handed over by Kyiv and committing suicide aims to manage internal personnel issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны report Western publications are again talking about Zelenskyy's authoritarianism after the curtailment of NABU powers, explicitly linking it to Western concerns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns claim Zelenskyy has signed the law liquidating the independence of anti-corruption bodies, reinforcing the narrative that the legislation has been enacted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z reports that Ukrainian MP Skorokhod admitted that TCC "beat mobilized people to death" across Ukraine, an RF information operation aimed at creating internal Ukrainian disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 publishes a photo with the caption "🤔 Attack on anti-corruption activities or 'good intentions'?", framing the debate around anti-corruption as a potential attack on it, which feeds into the disunity narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad states that the newly appointed PM Yulia Svrydenko's claim that corruption is exaggerated in Ukrainian society is a lie, continuing the "Ukrainian corruption" narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes a video of a Russian conscript detailing poor treatment and being forced into assault roles, which, while from an RF source, highlights potential for internal military disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники publishes a video titled "❗️«Мы подписали контракт под давлением»: как обманывают срочников". This video features three young men, appearing to be soldiers, discussing their contract terms, difficulties terminating it, and alleged pressure, directly reinforcing the RF narrative of poor treatment and coercion within military service. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: MoD Russia publishes a video showing a captured AFU serviceman discussing foreign mercenaries. This is a direct RF information operation to create doubt and demoralize Ukrainian forces and their international partners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Stability and Development (Internal): Mishustin's statements on airport modernization and border crossing point repairs aim to project an image of internal stability. News about fining crypto payments in 2026 attempts to project long-term economic planning. TASS reports FIDE allowing Russian women's chess team to compete. Kadyrov_95 [Video message] documents a religious event in Chechnya. ASTRA reports that Sheremetyevo Airport has labeled as "fakes" videos showing crowds of passengers. Colonelcassad reports for the first time in a long time, he used a Russian Railways train. TASS is promoting ease of entry for foreigners into RF. The lifting of flight restrictions at Samara airport and Kaluga airport is a further example of RF's adaptive strategy to normalize internal conditions. The reporting on Mariupol port operations is another attempt to normalize the situation in occupied territories. RF internal reporting on criminal cases, economic meetings, and internal security operations also serve to project a focus on stability and governance. RF milbloggers' sharing of Orthodox Christian traditions also works to foster internal unity. Rostov Oblast's focus on UAV development signals innovation. RF MoD proposed salary increase for military personnel aims to project positive conditions. The reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia will be framed internally by RF. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed to project stability. News about Moscow's urban development reinforces the normalcy narrative. Putin's toughening of foreign vessel access is presented as a measure for national security. TASS reports on RF AI development. Север.Реалии reports on "Spiritual-Moral Culture" in schools. The recovery of Winelab stores from a cyberattack is used to project resilience. The funeral of Yuri Kara and the Chechen cultural festival are used for normalization. TASS reports the new Moskvich-8 car is on sale for 2.98 million rubles. TASS reports the Sheremetyevo airport is organizing recreation zones for passengers. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. Новости Москвы reports scientists have proven a four-day work week without salary reduction improves employee well-being. TASS reports the State Duma has approved the transfer of data regarding migrant children enrollment in schools to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, framing this as a measure of control and order. TASS reporting on the death of a State Duma Deputy from illness is a part of this internal political framing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports actor Steven Seagal has left one of his last projects in Russia, which could be framed as a natural internal business decision. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы publishes a review of a Huawei MatePad Pro, indicating internal focus on technology and consumer goods. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Глеб Никитин posts positive news about historical real estate sales, aiming to project internal stability and economic activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports that the head of RF Digital Development Ministry, Maksut Shadayev, states Russia has fully deployed 5G networks in 45 regions. This promotes a narrative of technological advancement and stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы posts a video showing water puddles and cleaning operations inside a public building, suggesting a spill or leak. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы posts a video showing heavy rain and flooded streets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a video that is an advertisement for online gambling, which could be seen as a source of revenue or distraction in the domestic context. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video showing film director Igor Bogomolov, husband of Ksenia Sobchak, calling the war with Ukraine "the luck and happiness of our generation," and noting Putin awarded him the title "Honored Artist of Russia" the next day. This signals the use of cultural figures to bolster pro-war sentiment and justify the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports 517 flights were canceled at Moscow and St. Petersburg airports between July 19-22, affecting 75,000 passengers. This is a significant piece of information that challenges the narrative of stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports doctors in Voronezh saved a child, which serves as a normalization narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports that Kartapolov (Likely Duma Deputy Andrey Kartapolov) states year-round conscription will not increase the number of conscripts, but rather streamline the work of military commissariats. This is an adaptive message to alleviate potential public anxiety about continuous mobilization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The immediate air danger regime in Lipetsk Oblast, while a reactive measure, could be framed internally by RF as proactive protection of its citizens, reinforcing stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Historical Revisionism: Continued use of historical narratives to justify actions and demonize Ukraine. RF leveraging monument in Moldova to portray Ukraine as allied with Nazis. The cynical framing of Polish General Skrzypczak's death by RF milbloggers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of a book on "The Tricycle of Right-Bank Ukraine: Tsar, Nobility and People. 1793-1914," which is purely academic and historical but could be interpreted as an attempt to control the historical narrative around this region, given its past and present geopolitical significance. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) "Два майора" publishes a photo message containing a statement from the former Polish Land Forces Commander Skrzypczak, highlighting his calls to attack Belarus and Kaliningrad, used to vilify foreign military figures and reinforce the narrative of external threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews reports on the 81st anniversary of the defeat of "Galicia", likely referring to the 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS (1st Galician), used to reinforce historical narratives associated with Nazism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews publishes images related to the "Construction of the Torpedo Stadium" in 1975, likely to evoke nostalgia and a sense of past achievement/stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine's reporting on "Putin's chief ideologist" rewriting history is a Ukrainian counter-narrative, exposing RF's efforts in this domain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukrainian (UAF) Narratives:
  • Resilience & Defiance: Emphasis on high AD interception rates despite massed RF strikes, highlighting UAF's continued capability and will to resist. Promotion of citizen participation in defense (volunteer aid, medical front forums, miners/metallurgists). Civilian calls to veto anti-corruption bill highlight commitment to democratic values despite wartime. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO's continued calls for donations for drones demonstrate continued civilian support and resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Brutality & Civilian Casualties: Highlighting civilian deaths and injuries from RF strikes (Kramatorsk, Sumy, Odesa) to emphasize RF's disregard for international law and human life. Photos and videos of damaged civilian infrastructure used to demonstrate RF's destructive impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • International Support: Regular updates on Western military and financial aid, including Patriot systems and F-16 maintenance, to demonstrate strong international backing. Zelenskyy's participation in diplomatic meetings. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Corruption & Reform: Despite internal challenges, Ukrainian sources emphasize continued efforts to combat corruption (NABU operations, arrests, G7 meetings) to maintain international trust. The ongoing debate and protests concerning the NABU/SAP bill highlight internal democratic processes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tactical Effectiveness: Showcasing UAF drone successes (FPV strikes on RF personnel/vehicles, "kill zones," counter-drone operations), ground robot deployments for medevac, and domestic weapons production (Bohdana-BG) to boost morale and demonstrate tactical innovation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Discrediting RF: Highlighting internal Russian issues (e.g., Moscow airport disruptions, flooding in Moscow, internal arrests, poor treatment of conscripts by RF, alleged Russian torture of Azerbaijanis) to undermine RF's image of stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The video of the former convict detailing mistreatment in the Russian military is used to discredit RF forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Ukrainian sources countering RF's claim of UAF commander liquidation further discredits RF's information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Unit Professionalism & Morale: Showcasing UAF soldiers in training, promoting professionalism, and featuring direct appeals for aid for specific brigades to build support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zelenskyy's Leadership: Videos and reports of President Zelenskyy interacting with military personnel and civilians, presenting awards, reinforcing national unity and recognition of heroes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Political Challenges: Ukrainian sources reporting on the NABU/SAP protests indicate internal political dynamics, aiming for transparency and reform, in contrast to RF's narrative of disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

• Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:
  • Air Defense (AD): AD systems are at high operational tempo, continuously engaging multiple waves of RF aerial threats across the country. UAF claims high interception rates for missiles and UAVs. This indicates strong readiness but also high demand for AD resources. Commitment of new Patriot systems from Germany (conditional on replacement) and additional funding from Norway and Netherlands is critical for sustaining this posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Continued air patrols are indicated by a recent video of a UAF MiG-29 cockpit view. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Forces: UAF units in Eastern and Southern Ukraine are engaged in active defense and repelling RF assaults. UAF forces are making tactical adaptations, such as withdrawing to flanks and maintaining fire control, as seen in Kamyansk. Successful FPV drone operations by various brigades (30th, 60th Mechanized Brigades, "Rarog" Regiment) are inflicting RF personnel and equipment losses, demonstrating effective tactical innovation. The Khartia brigade is engaged in counter-personnel and fuel depot operations in Oskil. Significant reinforcement efforts are underway in Zaporizhzhia, including increasing defense funding and constructing anti-drone roads. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: UAF is suffering losses in the Toretsk area, indicating sustained combat pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Services: DSNS and local authorities are fully mobilized nationwide, responding to widespread civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. This indicates robust civilian support for the war effort but also highlights the civilian impact of RF strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Domestic Production: Domestic 155-mm Bohdana-BG howitzers entering service indicates progress in self-reliance, but President Zelenskyy's call for 50% domestic production within six months highlights a significant existing gap. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Logistics & Maintenance: Canada's allocation for tank maintenance and the Air Force receiving mobile F-16 maintenance complexes are positive indicators for sustaining complex Western equipment. However, the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade's appeal for EW systems points to ongoing equipment shortfalls. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Personnel: Continued recruitment efforts, including for drone units, and mobilization of convicts (approx. 9500) indicate sustained efforts to maintain force levels, but the video testimony of a former convict points to potential challenges in integration and morale. The death of the commander of the National Police assault brigade "Lyut", Maksym Kazban, in a traffic accident, is a loss of a key leader, regardless of the cause. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Command & Control: The appointment of Brig. Gen. Hennadiy Shapovalov as new commander of UAF Ground Forces suggests ongoing adjustments within the military leadership structure. President Zelenskyy remains actively engaged in diplomatic and internal policy matters, including negotiations and anti-corruption debates. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The SBU remains committed to eradicating Russian agents and maintaining collaboration with G7 partners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:
  • Successes:
    • High AD Interception Rates: UAF claims destruction of over 20 missiles and the "overwhelming majority" of drones (344 of 623), highlighting effective AD. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Effective Drone Operations: Numerous reports and videos show successful UAF FPV drone strikes, creating "kill zones," destroying RF mechanized equipment, and hitting personnel, demonstrating tactical advantage in localized engagements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Counter-Battery Actions: Successful targeting of an RF 2A65 Msta-B by UAF 44th Artillery Brigade. HIMARS strikes on an RF S-300 battery, "Nebo-M" radar, and "Big Bird" radar in Belgorod Oblast are significant if verified. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH/MEDIUM)
    • Deep Strike Success: Confirmed successful high-precision strike on a major logistics facility in Rovenky, Luhansk Oblast. SIGINT and thermal imaging from ISR assets indicate significant secondary explosions, consistent with the destruction of large ammunition stockpiles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Ground Robot Medevac: Successful use of ground robots for medical evacuation by 5th Separate Assault Kyiv Brigade demonstrates innovative and life-saving tactical adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Setbacks:
    • Tactical Withdrawals: Withdrawal of Defense Forces to flanks in Kamyansk, while adaptive, indicates local pressure and loss of initial positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • RF Ground Advances: DeepState confirms RF advances in several villages in Donetsk Oblast (Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, Voskresenka, Orikhove, Mayak, Zatyhka, Hrushevske) and the claimed liberation of Novotoretske, indicating localized UAF ground setbacks. TASS claims RF advanced near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast, dislodging UAF units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH/MEDIUM) NEW: The tactical map from Z комитет + карта СВО further indicates RF advances in the Krasnoarmeyskoye direction, specifically around #Suvorovo, confirming continued UAF ground setbacks in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF advances in Konstantinovskoye and Poltavka directions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Civilian Casualties & Infrastructure Damage: Widespread civilian fatalities and injuries, and extensive damage to residential and civilian infrastructure in Kyiv, Kramatorsk, Sumy, and Odesa, indicate RF strikes continue to bypass UAF AD or overwhelm local defenses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Russian claims of Surrender: TASS claims Ukrainian servicemen surrendered in Popov Yar, indicates tactical losses if verified. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
    • Personnel Losses: Reports of "horrible, irreparable and painful loss" in a brigade near Toretsk indicates UAF personnel losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Resource Requirements and Constraints:
  • Persistent AD Demand: The high volume and diversity of RF aerial attacks (missiles, hypersonics, Shaheds, KABs) places immense strain on UAF AD resources. Continuous resupply of interceptors and new systems is crucial. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • EW Shortfalls: Urgent requests for EW systems from frontline units highlight a critical vulnerability against RF drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Budgetary Gaps: Ukraine's stated need for $6 billion to cover weapon procurement gaps and $120 billion for next year's defense underscores the significant financial burden and reliance on international aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Manpower Quality: While quantity is addressed by mobilization, concerns about morale and treatment of mobilized convicts could impact combat effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

• Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:
  • RF Propaganda (HIGH INTENSITY):
    • Demoralization & Terror: RF continues to publicize civilian casualties from its strikes, directly and indirectly, to inflict psychological pressure (e.g., Kramatorsk, Sumy, Odesa). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Operational Successes: Heavily publicizing claimed ground advances (Popov Yar, Novotoretske, Hrushevske, Bila Hora, Krasnoarmeyskoye direction, Konstantinovskoye, Poltavka), successful drone strikes on UAF equipment/personnel, and claims of UAF surrenders to project an image of overwhelming force and inevitable victory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Internal Ukrainian Disunity: Actively exploiting and amplifying perceived internal Ukrainian issues, such as the NABU/SAP bill controversy, and alleged TCC mistreatment of conscripts, to sow discord and undermine trust in Ukrainian leadership. The narrative that the NABU/SAP bill "liquidates independence of anti-corruption bodies" is a key vector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: The testimony of a captured AFU serviceman discussing foreign mercenaries is a new vector to sow doubt about UAF composition and foreign support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF milbloggers also quickly capitalized on the death of Maksym Kazban, commander of the "Lyut" brigade, by misrepresenting his death as "liquidation" or "self-liquidation" to imply combat success or internal UAF instability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • US Political Influence: RF sources are actively attempting to influence Western political discourse, particularly in the US, by amplifying statements like the US House Speaker's comment on sanctions needing Trump's approval, to suggest US divisions and unreliable support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Normalization: Continued efforts to normalize life in Russia and occupied territories, despite the war, through reporting on civilian events (e.g., Ozzy Osbourne's death), economic plans, and infrastructure projects, aiming to project stability and divert attention from the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Historical Revisionism: Continued efforts to vilify foreign military figures (e.g., Polish General Skrzypczak) and use historical narratives to justify the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Anti-Western Narrative: RF MFA statements consistently portray Western countries as prolonging the conflict and using Ukraine as a tool. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Internal Legal Actions as Hybrid Warfare: RF media frames new internal laws (e.g., fines for extremist content, VPNs) as direct countermeasures to Ukrainian hybrid operations (e.g., call centers). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukrainian Propaganda (HIGH INTENSITY):
    • Resilience & Defiance: Emphasizing high AD interception rates, humanitarian responses, and successful tactical engagements to maintain public morale and demonstrate effective resistance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • RF Atrocities: Highlighting civilian casualties and infrastructure destruction caused by RF strikes to galvanize international support and condemn RF actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • International Support: Regularly reporting on military and financial aid from Western partners to underscore strong international backing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Anti-Corruption Efforts: Despite controversies, Ukrainian sources emphasize continued efforts to combat corruption within institutions to maintain international trust. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Discrediting RF: Highlighting internal Russian issues, such as airport disruptions, flooding, and alleged mistreatment of conscripts and internal repression (media crackdowns, arrests), to undermine RF's image of stability and capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Ukrainian sources also directly counter RF disinformation, as seen in the reporting on the "chief ideologist of Putin" rewriting history. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Public sentiment and morale factors:
  • Ukraine:
    • Resilience and Defiance (High): Despite widespread and intense RF strikes, public sentiment appears to remain largely resilient. The organized protests in Kyiv, Dnipro, and Lviv against the NABU/SAP bill, while internal political dissent, demonstrate a continued belief in democratic processes and accountability, even amidst war. This suggests an active civil society and a commitment to reform. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Trauma from Civilian Casualties (High): The confirmed civilian fatalities and injuries, including a child killed in Kramatorsk and a woman in Sumy, and widespread infrastructure damage in Odesa, Kyiv, and Sumy, are causing significant public trauma. This leads to increased demand for emergency services and humanitarian aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Mobilization Concerns (Medium): The reported violent TCC detention in Chernihiv and the testimony of a former convict regarding mistreatment in the Russian military (which could be used by UAF for propaganda, but still reflects on the general challenges of mobilization) indicate some public apprehension and friction regarding mobilization efforts. This warrants continued monitoring to prevent wider demoralization. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
    • Trust in Institutions (Mixed): The public protests against the NABU/SAP bill suggest a degree of distrust or concern regarding government actions and potential undermining of anti-corruption efforts. The G7 ambassadors' alarm underscores this. Continued transparency will be critical. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Pride in Military (High): Positive media coverage of UAF tactical successes (drone operations, counter-battery, ground robot use, AD interceptions, domestic production) and international support (Patriot, F-16 maintenance) likely boosts public morale and pride in the armed forces. The continuous emphasis on "Ukrainian heroes" and high-level visits to the front reinforce this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Weather Impact (Medium): Heavy rains and flooding in Kyiv and Odesa impact daily life and can cause frustration, but are generally not tied to military operations in the public's perception. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Religious/Cultural Identity (High): The mandate for UOC to declare a break with ROC could generate internal religious tensions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Federation (RF):
    • Perceived Victory/Resilience (High): RF state media and milbloggers actively cultivate a narrative of military success, resilience against Ukrainian attacks, and internal stability. The lifting of airport restrictions, economic development news, and claims of battlefield gains (Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Novotoretske, Krasnoarmeyskoye direction, Konstantinovskoye, Poltavka) contribute to this. Tucker Carlson's "Russia won" statement is being used to reinforce this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Public Concern over Drone Attacks (Medium): Despite official claims of high interception rates, repeated drone attacks on Moscow and other RF cities (Rostov, Samara, Belgorod, Lipetsk) cause public anxiety and disrupt civilian life (e.g., airport delays). WarGonzo's questioning of Moscow airport conditions suggests persistent public concern. The Samara oil refinery fire confirms drone penetration and damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Internal Stability vs. Repression (Mixed): While RF emphasizes internal stability, the numerous arrests for "justifying terrorism," "discrediting the army," "treason," and the raids on media outlets (Baza) indicate ongoing internal repression. The detention of political opposition figures (Kisiev, Dud) reinforces control over political dissent. This likely creates an underlying current of fear and self-censorship, even if overt protest is suppressed. The year-round conscription proposal could also generate public anxiety. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Economic Strain (Low-Medium): The drought in Donbas (Khanzhenkovo reservoir) highlights environmental challenges with potential long-term economic impact. Dependence on volunteer aid for military equipment also points to some economic strain, though portrayed as public support. The UK sanctions on tankers aim to inflict economic damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Soldier Welfare (Mixed): While RF claims to support its military personnel (e.g., proposed salary increase, benefits for widows), the need for civilian fundraising for military equipment, and a captured Russian conscript's testimony of mistreatment, may suggest gaps in soldier welfare. The appeal for FPV drones and Starlink for the 7th Airborne Division underscores a persistent need for popular support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Migration Issues (Rising): Discussion of issues related to migrants (e.g., illegal migration, crime involving migrant children) indicates rising social friction points that RF authorities are attempting to control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Weather Impact (Significant): Severe flooding in Moscow and a mudslide in Kabardino-Balkaria are causing significant civilian disruption and infrastructure damage, which can negatively impact public morale and trust in local governance, although some milbloggers attempt to create conspiracy theories about it. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• International support and diplomatic developments:
  • For Ukraine:
    • Continued Military Aid (High): Germany's willingness to provide additional Patriot systems (conditional on replacement), Netherlands' significant contribution to Patriot and F-16 maintenance, Canada's allocation for tank repairs and defense industry, and Britain's air defense assets and artillery shells demonstrate sustained and substantial military support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Diplomatic Engagement (High): President Zelenskyy's emphasis on new negotiations in Istanbul indicates continued diplomatic engagement and a push for peace. The Chief of General Staff's diplomatic address also highlights this. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar's visit to Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Financial Support (High): Norway's readiness for additional AD funding, NATO's potential additional funding, and Ukraine's stated need for $120 billion for defense next year indicate a clear and ongoing financial requirement met by international partners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Concerns over Corruption Reform (High): G7 Ambassadors' alarm over the NABU scandal and the EU's concern about the new law regarding NABU and SAP indicate international scrutiny on Ukraine's anti-corruption reforms. This could impact future aid if not addressed transparently. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • International Legal Accountability: President Zelenskyy's emphasis on legal architecture to hold Russia accountable. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Canada's Military Aid: Canada will allocate $14.6 million USD for maintenance of Ukrainian tanks and finance Ukrainian defense industry. Canada will allocate $15 million for Leopard 2 tank repairs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • EU Frozen Assets: РБК-Україна reports the EU wants to informally discuss the fate of frozen Russian assets. This is a potential future source of funding for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • For Russian Federation (RF):
    • Continued Diplomatic Engagement (Medium): Upcoming negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul indicate a willingness for diplomatic engagement, though on RF's terms. Trump's stated openness to meet Putin in China indicates potential for future high-level diplomatic engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Propaganda Against Western Support (High): RF MFA statements consistently frame Western countries as using Ukraine to wage war against Russia. RF milbloggers amplify any perceived Western weakness or division (e.g., Trump's stance on NATO). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Sanctions Impact (Medium): UK sanctions on RF's "shadow fleet" tankers and reported reduction in LNG exports due to sanctions demonstrate ongoing pressure. However, RF's ability to maintain port operations in Mariupol suggests some adaptation to sanctions. TASS reports The Hague lifting arrest from Gazprom shares. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • China/Iran Relations (High): A planned Russia-China-Iran trilateral meeting on nuclear issues signifies a deepening of strategic alliances outside the Western sphere. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Historical Grievances (High): RF leverages perceived historical injustices (e.g., Moldova monument, Polish General's death) to justify its actions and fuel anti-Western sentiment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Poland's Warning to Citizens (High): Poland urging its citizens to leave Russia by all possible means due to rising tensions indicates a significant deterioration in bilateral relations and potential for escalation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Azerbaijan Claims (High): Azerbaijan submitting evidence of torture and murder of its citizens to Russia could create diplomatic friction, although RF sources frame it differently. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • US Political Influence (NEW): Statements from the US House Speaker about not considering sanctions against Russia until Trump requests it indicate RF's continuing influence operations on US foreign policy debates. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Nuclear Posture (NEW): WarGonzo's report on the US nuclear potential returning to the UK could be a move by RF to highlight perceived shifts in NATO's nuclear deterrence posture, which could be framed as a threat or a justification for RF actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• Sustained Deep Strike Campaign: RF will likely continue high-volume, multi-vector deep strikes across Ukraine, integrating strategic missiles (cruise, hypersonic), Shahed UAVs, and KABs. Primary targets will remain military-industrial complex enterprises, military airfield infrastructure, and energy infrastructure, but with continued disregard for civilian casualties. Intensified use of KABs is expected, particularly against Eastern and Southern front-line towns and cities to support ground advances and demoralize the population. This will include targeted strikes on UAV C2 nodes (e.g., as seen in Antonivka). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Persistent Ground Pressure in Eastern Ukraine: RF will maintain offensive pressure in Eastern Ukraine, particularly on the Donetsk axes (Avdiivka, Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Lyman, Sieversk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka), and along the Kharkiv direction (Kupyansk, Starytsia). They will seek to exploit any tactical gains (e.g., around Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Novotoretske, Hrushevske, Kamyansk, Krasnoarmeyskoye direction, Konstantinovskoye, Poltavka) and potentially commit additional reserves if breakthroughs are achieved. DRG activity, particularly in Pokrovsk and Krasnoarmeysk, will continue. The increasing pace of offensive operations (as per Colonelcassad's chart) suggests RF will attempt to sustain or accelerate this tempo. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Increased Cross-Border Kinetic Activity (Sumy/Kharkiv/Chernihiv): Given the increased reconnaissance UAV activity (including new reports in Chernihiv Oblast) and recent KAB strikes, RF will likely intensify shelling and drone attacks on border communities in Sumy, Kharkiv, and now potentially Chernihiv Oblasts. There is a low-to-medium likelihood of limited cross-border ground assaults aimed at fixing UAF forces or conducting raids. The introduction of air danger in Lipetsk Oblast suggests RF is preparing for or responding to UAF deep operations in the border regions, which could impact RF offensive planning. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Escalated Information Operations: RF will continue to aggressively use information operations to demoralize Ukrainian society, exploit internal Ukrainian political divisions (e.g., NABU/SAP controversy, TCC practices, convict mobilization challenges, foreign mercenary narratives, disinformation regarding UAF command deaths), and portray Russia as resilient and victorious for its domestic audience. This will include leveraging statements from captured UAF personnel, amplifying claims of UAF corruption/disunity, and promoting narratives of RF internal stability and development. They will continue to attempt to influence Western political discourse, particularly in the US. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Continued Focus on Internal Control: The RF will continue to implement and enforce strict internal security measures, including legal actions against perceived dissidents, media crackdowns, and measures to control information flow within Russia. The push for year-round conscription will proceed, likely with official messaging to alleviate public concerns about increased numbers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Targeting of Shadow Networks in Occupied Territories: RF will likely initiate internal security or economic operations against "shadow" companies identified by Ukrainian hacker groups (InformNapalm, 256 CyberStorm) in occupied territories to consolidate economic control and eliminate perceived threats to their occupation regime. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• Massed Ground Offensive (New Axis/Reinforced East/North): RF could launch a new, large-scale ground offensive on a less defended axis (e.g., from Belarus towards Western Ukraine) or significantly reinforce and expand offensive operations in the Sumy/Kharkiv regions, aiming to fix UAF forces and draw resources away from the primary Eastern and Southern fronts. This could be coupled with a breakthrough and rapid exploitation around Pokrovsk or Avdiivka, leading to a significant operational encirclement of UAF forces. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Targeted Destruction of Western Aid Infrastructure: RF could directly target critical Western military aid and logistics infrastructure within Ukraine (e.g., railway hubs, warehouses, repair facilities), including those closer to the Polish border, using sustained hypersonic or cruise missile attacks. This would severely impede UAF resupply and readiness. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Cyberattack on Critical Ukrainian Infrastructure: RF could launch a widespread, coordinated cyberattack against Ukraine's critical civilian and military infrastructure (e.g., energy grid, financial systems, military C2 networks), aiming to cause systemic disruption and undermine national resilience. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Hybrid Operations in Moldova/Baltics: RF could escalate hybrid operations against Moldova (potentially leveraging Transnistria) or the Baltic States, aiming to test NATO's Article 5 or create diversionary pressure, possibly involving cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, or even limited incursions by proxy forces. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)

5.3. Timeline estimates and decision points

• Next 24-48 Hours (Immediate Threat):
  • Decision Point: UAF must decide on immediate force redeployments and defensive enhancements to prevent the complete encirclement of Avdiivka, particularly countering glide bomb effects and armored assaults.
  • Expected RF Actions: Continued high-intensity ground assaults around Avdiivka, Pokrovsk, and likely intensified KAB/Shahed strikes nationwide. Increased reconnaissance flights over northern border regions, including Chernihiv. Focus on exploiting current ground gains, particularly in the Krasnoarmeyskoye direction, Konstantinovskoye, and Poltavka. Continued information operations, including disinformation regarding UAF casualties.
• Next 72-96 Hours (Short-Term Threat):
  • Decision Point: Assess the full impact of the Rovenky strike on RF logistics and identify secondary targets for interdiction. Prioritize AD system allocation based on continued RF deep strike patterns and potential new axis threats. Monitor the effects of the NABU/SAP legislation on international support and internal stability, and prepare to counter RF information operations related to it. Evaluate impacts of losses in Toretsk area on defensive stability.
  • Expected RF Actions: Attempt to mitigate logistical disruptions from the Rovenky strike. Potential increase in RF AD over their logistical hubs. Continued information operations exploiting internal Ukrainian issues, including the new foreign mercenary narrative and misrepresenting UAF command deaths. Continued internal consolidation of control, including suppression of dissent and formalization of conscription, with messaging designed to manage public perception.
• Next 7-14 Days (Medium-Term Threat):
  • Decision Point: Evaluate the effectiveness of new Western AD contributions and F-16 maintenance infrastructure. Adjust domestic production goals based on sustained combat needs and external supply chain reliability. Monitor the impact of any new Western aid conditionality based on Ukraine's anti-corruption reforms.
  • Expected RF Actions: Potential for sustained, but perhaps adapted, ground offensives across Eastern Ukraine, with increased reliance on tactical drones and electronic warfare. Continued and possibly intensified pressure on Sumy/Kharkiv/Chernihiv border regions. Continued efforts to formalize and expand conscription. Potential for further deep strikes on UAF defense production facilities.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• Avdiivka RF Intent and Reserves: Precise strength and composition of RF reserves designated for exploitation of the Avdiivka breakthrough. Detailed Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) of T-90M tanks committed. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, SIGINT, IMINT, OSINT)
• RF Deep Strike Munitions Stockpiles: Estimates of current RF stockpiles for cruise missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, KAB glide bombs, and LMURs, and their production rates, to better predict future saturation levels. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, IMINT, OSINT, TECHINT)
• Effectiveness of RF EW: Detailed assessment of RF's Starlink jamming capabilities and the range/effectiveness of their new anti-drone systems (e.g., Rostec's localized signal suppression). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, HUMINT, TECHINT)
• Full Scope of RF Drone Development/Production: Specific details on Rostov Oblast's UAV development plans and the actual production rates of new RF drone models (e.g., "Harpy," "Feniks"), including reliance on foreign components. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, TECHINT, HUMINT)
• UAF Convict Mobilization Effectiveness: Detailed information on training, equipping, morale, and combat effectiveness of mobilized convicts within the AFU. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT)
• Impact of NABU/SAP Legislation: Comprehensive assessment of the long-term impact of the new law on NABU/SAP independence, including its effect on international support and internal Ukrainian stability. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT, POLINT)
• Precise Locations of RF Ground Gains: Independent verification of claimed RF advances and liberation of villages (e.g., Popov Yar, Varachino, Hrushevske, Novotoretske, Bila Hora, around Suvorovo in Krasnoarmeyskoye direction, Konstantinovskoye, Poltavka), specifically through high-resolution imagery. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT)
• RF Shadow Company Operations: Detailed information on the specific activities, financial flows, and logistical impact of "shadow Russian companies" operating in occupied territories, as identified by InformNapalm and 256 CyberStorm. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, FININT, HUMINT)
• Impact of RF Logistics Disruption: Independent BDA and assessment of the effectiveness of UAF "logistics disruption" operations, as claimed by RF milbloggers, to verify their impact on RF supply lines and combat effectiveness. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT)
• RF Foreign Mercenary Claims: Verification of RF claims regarding the presence and flight of foreign mercenaries (Japanese, Colombian, Polish, Irish, American, German) in Ukraine. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT)
• Toretsk Front Losses: Detailed assessment of personnel and equipment losses in the Toretsk area, and the impact on UAF defensive posture. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, IMINT)
• RF Volunteer Aid Impact: Quantitative assessment of the impact of volunteer aid on RF forces' logistical and equipment capabilities (e.g., number of FPV drones/Starlink systems acquired, types of vehicles provided). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT)

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize Air Defense Assets for Western Ukraine: Allocate additional medium- and long-range air defense systems (Patriot, NASAMS if available) to Western Ukraine, particularly targeting Khmelnytskyi, Lviv, and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts, to counter Kinzhal and cruise missile threats and protect logistical hubs for Western aid. Expedite delivery and integration of pledged AD systems.
2. Enhance Frontline EW Capabilities: Immediately deploy additional Electronic Warfare (EW) systems, especially those capable of countering FPV and reconnaissance drones, to frontline units in Eastern and Southern Ukraine (e.g., 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade's artillery units) and around critical civilian infrastructure.
3. Harden Critical Infrastructure: Implement rapid hardening measures for civilian infrastructure in regularly targeted cities (Kyiv, Odesa, Sumy, Kramatorsk) to mitigate civilian casualties and damage from sustained RF aerial attacks. This includes reinforcing shelters and potentially establishing more distributed power generation capacity.
4. Counter-Information Operations: Develop and disseminate robust counter-narratives to immediately address RF disinformation campaigns, particularly those targeting Ukrainian unity, anti-corruption efforts, foreign support, and the presence of foreign volunteers. Highlight RF's civilian casualties and internal issues, leveraging information such as Russian conscript testimony of poor treatment. Specifically, counter RF claims regarding UAF command casualties with accurate information. Expose RF's historical revisionism.
5. ISR Focus on Northern Border: Increase friendly ISR collection (UAV, SIGINT) along the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv border regions to provide early warning of any RF ground force massing or further offensive preparations, distinguishing between feints and actual intent. Monitor RF activity in Lipetsk Oblast as a potential indicator of deeper RF vulnerabilities or responses to UAF strikes.
6. Support Ground Robot Development/Deployment: Accelerate funding and operational integration of ground robots for medical evacuation and logistical support, reducing personnel exposure to high-threat areas, leveraging successes of units like the 5th Separate Assault Kyiv Brigade.
7. Monitor Internal RF Stability: Continue to monitor internal RF social and political developments, including public sentiment regarding conscription and law enforcement actions, as potential indicators of broader systemic strain or opportunities for information operations.
8. Target RF Shadow Companies: Utilize intelligence (InformNapalm/256 CyberStorm data) to develop targeted actions (e.g., sanctions, cyber operations, interdiction) against identified "shadow Russian companies" operating in occupied territories to disrupt RF's economic and logistical sustainment of the occupation.