Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 221711Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats have been lifted, though localized Shahed UAV threats persist for Lviv Oblast, Southern Ukraine, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi districts, also Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, heading NW), and Kharkiv Oblast. Confirmed civilian casualties from recent strikes are 14 fatalities and multiple injuries across Ivano-Frankivsk (4), Kyiv (9 injured, 1 fatality), Chernivtsi (4), Zaporizhzhia (2), Dnipropetrovsk (2), Sloviansk (4), Kherson (7 injured), and Kramatorsk (1 fatality, 7 injured, now 12 injured for Sloviansk/Kramatorsk combined). Rescue and emergency services are actively engaged across multiple oblasts. Confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa due to RF UAV attack, including administrative building, vehicles, and residential windows. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Northern Ukraine (Kyiv Oblast): Continued Air Defense (AD) engagement against Shahed UAVs over Kyiv. Kinetic impacts on residential and commercial buildings, and a metro entrance. One fatality and nine injuries reported in Kyiv. Firefighters are actively engaged; kindergarten fire confirmed. Over fifteen direct hits on various objects in Kyiv overnight. RF milblogger Colonelcassad claims three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, with video showing multiple explosions and fires, and claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv. New ballistic missile threat declared for Kyiv, now lifted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports a localized internal security incident involving a shooting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kyiv City: RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU report a crane collapsed on Hlybochytska Street due to strong winds/storm. This is likely a weather-related incident, not combat, but affects civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports 5 individuals hospitalized in Kyiv, including a 13-year-old girl, due to bad weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Eastern Ukraine: Initial cruise missile group detected over Kharkiv Oblast, moving towards Poltava Oblast. Kharkiv's Kyivskyi district hit by 12 UAV strikes overnight. RF milblogger "Воин DV" claims bomber strikes on UAF forward positions in Yanvarskyi supporting 36th Army advance. New group of RF UAVs reported from Luhansk Oblast moving towards Kharkiv Oblast. Kharkiv Oblast governor confirms strikes on Kharkiv city and 10 settlements. DeepState reports RF advances in Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, and near three other villages in Donetsk Oblast. MoD Russia video claims liberation of Popov Yar. RF milbloggers claim a new RF front opened in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian military operations confirmed near Belaya Gora, Donetsk, with claims of capturing foreign weapons. Colonelcassad shares map showing continued positional changes on the front line. UAF National Guard "Khartia" brigade drone operators claimed destruction of nearly a platoon of Russian occupiers in Kharkiv Oblast. A tractor driver was blown up by a mine in Balakliia community, Kharkiv Oblast. At least 54 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast affected by enemy strikes over the past week. STERNENKO claims Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment holding back Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast. Liveuamap Source reports recent clashes at Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Gulyaypole, and Kherson directions. Ukrainian forces repelled 23 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. FPV drone strike on Russian UAZ-452 ('Bukhanka') vehicle confirmed. Perovske, Zolochiv community, Kharkiv Oblast, shelled. DeepState reports liquidation of RF sabotage groups in Pokrovsk. RF milbloggers claim RF DRG activity in Pokrovsk, with video suggesting an ambush on a UAF vehicle. Threat of aviation munitions for Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. Clashes confirmed yesterday in Toretsk, Sieversk, Lyman, Novopavlivka, Kramatorsk, Kupyansk, Orikhiv, South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), and Pokrovsk directions. Ukrainian forces repelled 22 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. DeepState analysis indicates RF army occupied Hrushevske and advanced near Voskresenka, Orikhove, Mayak and Zatyhka (formerly Suvorove) in Donetsk Oblast. TASS and MoD Russia claim RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske in DNR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: TASS reports RF forces advanced near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast, dislodging UAF units from several positions. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports renewed activity in Kharkiv direction, with video showing drone-guided strikes on targets, indicating continued RF pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Popov Yar, Donetsk Oblast: TASS reports a group of Ukrainian servicemen surrendered in Popov Yar, DNR. This claim, if verified, indicates localized UAF tactical setbacks. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • South-Donetsk Direction: Colonelcassad publishes video claiming successful destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit by 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, "Vostok" Grouping. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast: ASTRA, RBC-Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 report a direct RF KAB strike on a residential building, resulting in the confirmed death of a 10-year-old child and 7 injured. Visuals confirm a multi-story residential building on fire. New information reports 12 injured after aviation strikes on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sloviansk, Donetsk Oblast: Олексій Білошицький reports Russian attack on Sloviansk. Paramedics from the "Predator" brigade assisted an 81-year-old woman. This confirms continued RF strikes on Sloviansk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk Oblast: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade drone operators created a "kill zone" in Donetsk Oblast, destroying multiple enemy vehicles and personnel with FPV drones. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video of 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade using FPV drones to destroy two pieces of RF mechanized equipment during an attempted assault, confirming successful engagement against armored targets. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes a video showing Ukrainian drone operators (427th Separate Unmanned Systems Regiment "Rarog") using "fireball" bombs (improvised incendiary devices dropped from heavy drones) to destroy houses and premises used by the enemy in the frontline zone. Video shows multiple explosions and fires in a village. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast: RBC-Ukraine provides photo/video on RF drone and KAB attacks on Dobropillia, highlighting continued RF kinetic impacts on civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Belgorod Oblast (RF): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video claiming HIMARS strikes on an RF S-300 air defense battery, a "Nebo-M" radar, and a 5H66M "Big Bird" radar. This, if verified, is a significant UAF success. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) TASS reports three injured, including two minors, in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA also reports three injured, including two teenagers, in Belgorod Oblast after shelling. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: "Два майора" publishes a video of an aerial attack on a convoy of vehicles, likely military trucks, in a rural setting, captioned about a strike on an S-300/400 in Belgorod, suggesting UAF counter-battery or deep strike effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ASTRA reports a civilian was injured in Belgorod Oblast due to a UAF strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Velyka Novosilka - Shevchenko: "Сливочный каприз" publishes photo messages likely indicating continued engagements in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: "Сливочный каприз" publishes video of a destroyed settlement with a person carrying a Russian flag, captioned "Konstantinovka - Belaya Gora," indicating active combat and likely RF advances in this area of Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnolimanskoye Direction: "Два майора" publishes a video showing RF unit thanking for humanitarian aid, indicating continued RF presence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar: Colonelcassad provides video footage claiming the destruction of a UAF UAV command post on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnoarmeysk direction: MoD Russia video claims destruction of a UAF UAV control post. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports RF forces are forming a wide encirclement of Krasnoarmeysk in DNR after liberating Novotoretske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV reports RF forces active in Krasnoarmeysk direction, claiming to disable Starlink communications for 25th Airborne Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sloviansk/Kramatorsk: Colonelcassad publishes video claiming "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk, with a large plume of dark smoke. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnoarmeysk: Басурин о главном and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publish videos claiming Russian reconnaissance and DRG activity in Krasnoarmeysk, with video suggesting an ambush on a UAF vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes photo messages claiming active work by RF operators against enemy equipment in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Alexandrovgrad: Воин DV publishes drone footage claiming destruction of armored vehicles and personnel by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 5th Guards Tank Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novotoretske, DNR: TASS, MoD Russia, Операция Z, and Kotsnews all claim RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnoarmeysk Direction: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes video claiming the downing of a heavy "Baba Yaga" drone by AIRNOMADS operators. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Torskoye: Оперативний ЗСУ publishes drone video claiming to show a "military crime" by RF forces targeting a civilian on a bicycle, followed by artillery strikes, with claims of multiple enemy neutralizations. NEW: DeepState publishes video alleging RF forces shot a local resident on a bicycle in Torske, followed by artillery strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Orlivka, Sumy Oblast: Colonelcassad claims use of "Harpy" drones by RF UAV units to destroy temporary deployment points and vehicles of the UAF 104th Territorial Defense Brigade near Orlivka, Sumy Oblast. Video shows residential buildings impacted by explosions and fires. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Temirovka, Zaporizhzhia Region: MoD Russia claims Uragan MLRS hit AFU positions near Temirovka, Zaporizhzhia region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pokrovsk (Donetsk Oblast): Рыбарь channel publishes a photo and video indicating "Russian infantry in Pokrovsk." The video, likely from a drone, shows a road intersection with a damaged/abandoned vehicle and several figures, suggesting RF ground presence or recent activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes video claiming to show drone footage of an AFU armored vehicle being engaged in Pokrovsk by AIRNOMADS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны publish video claiming fierce battles, increased pace of advance, and destruction of enemy equipment and personnel near Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z reports that "Otvazhnye" (brave ones) stormed a UAF strongpoint near Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast, Izium: Colonelcassad publishes video showing residents of Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, visually monitoring a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike on a Ukrainian "occupation formation" object. This implies the strike occurred on July 22, 2025, and caused damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes video claiming a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike on a target in Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, with thick smoke billowing from a partially destroyed building, confirming continued RF kinetic activity in the area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast, Oskil: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes drone footage showing the Khartia brigade's engagement against enemy personnel and a fuel depot in the Oskil region. RF flags visible on targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk Oblast (New KAB Launches): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports repeated KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv/Sumy Border (New KAB Launches): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches on the border of Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kamyansk (New): Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Defense Forces have withdrawn to the flanks and are holding Kamyansk under fire control, indicating an adaptive defensive maneuver. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Военкор Котенок posts a map of the Dnipropetrovsk direction, indicating potential RF focus or movements in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Военкор Котенок posts a map of the Druzhkivka direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Central Ukraine: Missile group (up to 10) towards Myrhorod district, then passing Poltava towards Kremenсhuk. New missile group from Sumy Oblast also moved towards Poltava Oblast. Another group from Cherkasy Oblast diverted, heading westward into Vinnytsia Oblast. Kryvyi Rih reports "situation controlled." Aftermath of attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast confirmed. TASS claims RF forces used FABs against UAF reserve positions in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovets Oblast. New threat of strike UAVs for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi districts). UAV reported on Poltava Oblast, heading southwest. Threat of enemy strike UAVs in Zolotoniskyi and Cherkaskyi districts of Cherkasy Oblast. One fatality in Vinnytsia from 16 July strike. Explosions in Kropyvnytskyi and Kryvyi Rih amid ballistic missile threat. Kirovohrad Oblast attacked by ballistic missiles. Nikopol district attacked by artillery, MLRS "Grad," and FPV drones. НгП раZVедка reports on aftermath of strike on preparatory camp in Kropyvnytskyi. UAV threat reported in Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, heading northwest. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), with possible AD activity. Missile danger for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi district) and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: TASS claims a UK-trained UAF unit was destroyed. This is an unverified RF claim. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports over two dozen attacks in Nikopol district throughout the day, using artillery and FPV drones, targeting the district center and other communities. This confirms continued RF kinetic pressure in the region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: РБК-Україна reports an infrastructure object damaged due to a drone hit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ballistic Missile Threat: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports a threat of ballistic missile use from the East. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports ballistic missile threat from Northeast (Now lifted). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports ballistic threat from East. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports high-speed target from Kursk Oblast heading southwest in Sumy Oblast. Ballistic missile threat lifted for all areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poltava Oblast: The Office of the Prosecutor General reports a domestic law enforcement event regarding counterfeit perfumes/cosmetics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) claims a powerful strike on a UAF training ground in Kirovohrad Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (New): 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes photos regarding a visit from Myroslav Biletskyi, Head of Zakarpattia Oblast Military Administration, indicating inter-regional cooperation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Western Ukraine: Cruise missiles confirmed from Vinnytsia Oblast to Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Main group entered Ternopil Oblast, Chernivtsi Oblast (AD engaging, 4 fatalities confirmed), and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast (explosions, damage, casualties). Kinzhal hypersonic missile launched from MiG-31K tracked towards Starokostiantyniv, then Ternopil/Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts, with confirmed explosions and casualties. Mayor of Ivano-Frankivsk confirmed infrastructure damage. Three Shahed UAVs approaching Ivano-Frankivsk reported intercepted. Damage to kindergarten and university in Lviv. Damaged residential buildings (20 private houses) in Kamianets-Podilskyi district, Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Odesa Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a Shahed UAV recovered from the shore near Odesa. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Southern Ukraine: New Shahed UAVs detected in Black Sea, heading towards Pivdenne/Koblevo (8 inbound). RF strike on Vasylivskyi district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulted in 2 fatalities, 1 wounded. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reports 14 UAVs shot down (previously 7). Missile threat active for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF 44th Artillery Brigade successfully targeted an RF 2A65 Msta-B. Colonelcassad claims missile strike on Ukrainian gas platform in Black Sea. TASS reports parts of a downed UAF UAV fell on a kindergarten and Ministry of Emergency Situations in Berdyansk. Launches of KABs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast confirmed. UAV threat for Kherson, Zaporizhzhia (Nikopolskyi district), and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts from the south. 4 new Shahed UAVs from Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Pavlohrad. New groups of Shahed UAVs from Black Sea heading towards Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts. Odesa Oblast AD engaged 10 Shahed UAVs over Black Sea; 12 Shahed UAVs confirmed approaching Odesa from the sea. Explosions heard in Odesa. CONFIRMED CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE IN ODESA DUE TO RF UAV ATTACK, with photo evidence of destroyed vehicles, debris, and extensive damage. RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU further confirm extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Odesa. One fatality in Odesa due to the attack (confirmed by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS), and one injured (STERNENKO). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson Oblast: Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 4 Russian army assaults. TASS reports on Russian Group "Dnepr" UAV calculation with FPV drones destroying a Ukrainian D-20 howitzer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Военкор Котенок claims destruction of a Ukrainian boat with personnel in Kherson direction using a fiber-optic FPV drone, indicating continued RF FPV operations against UAF small craft. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mariupol: TASS reports that the Mariupol port is operating with sufficient staff for current workload. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vasylivskyi District, Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has posted photo messages showing a wounded man from an "enemy attack." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson: ASTRA reports one woman injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Southern Direction: Сили оборони Півдня України reports continued RF aviation strikes, FPV drone use, and Shahed UAV attacks on frontline settlements and UAF positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Ballistic missile threat alert issued. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues immediate alert for Zaporizhzhia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports air raid alert lifted for Zaporizhzhia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: Air Force reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV detected. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Shkolny Airfield, Odesa Oblast: Военкор Котенок claims Ukrainian AD targeted high-rise buildings and local parking during "Geranium" attack, an RF attempt to shift blame. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Nova Kakhovka: WarGonzo reports two fatalities from a drone strike on a minibus in Nova Kakhovka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Gas Facilities (Black Sea): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Военкор Котенок reports "Naftogaz" states that an important gas production facility was attacked last night with "dozens of drones." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson Direction (New): Два майора publishes video indicating drone operations, signal loss/interference and possible impact, related to Kherson direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vessel Destruction (New): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes video showing a burning naval vessel, likely after an engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Temporary flight restrictions at Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky airports have been lifted. Restrictions also lifted at Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, and Kaluga airports. RF milbloggers gloat about Kyiv impacts. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claims 18 UAVs shot down over Moscow; RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight (previously 23 over Moscow, and a total of 74 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight). Falling UAV debris on railway station in Rostov Oblast delayed over 50 passenger trains. Fire at Kamianolomni railway station, Rostov Oblast confirmed. Belgorod governor reports 2 civilian injuries from UAF UAV attack. Flooding reported in Moscow streets. Fires reported in Rostov and Moscow oblasts after UAV hits. TASS reports a Moldovan national detained in Ryazan confessed to transmitting data on RF Armed Forces to Kyiv. TASS reports a man detained in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD facilities. TASS reports RF MoD claims 14 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kaluga, Bryansk, Tula, and Oryol Oblasts. Crimean Bridge queue reached 2000 vehicles. TASS reports foreigners can enter RF without RuID registration. TASS reports the new Moskvich-8 car is on sale for 2.98 million rubles. TASS reports the Sheremetyevo airport is organizing recreation zones for passengers. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. ASTRA reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Gennady Starunov, a Russian "Teacher of the Year 2022," lecturer from Moscow school #1164, and author of Telegram channel "Frontline Notes," was liquidated in Ukraine. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov-on-Don: TASS reports a UAV attack was repelled in Rostov-on-Don, Millerovo, Donetsk (Rostov Oblast), and Azov district, with no casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tula Oblast: TASS reports RF air defense destroyed three Ukrainian UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov Oblast UAV Development: TASS reports plans to make Rostov Oblast a leader in UAV development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novosibirsk: TASS reports the detention of a young man for hacking information resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Samara Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports a drone attack on Samara Oblast, RF. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) ASTRA provides video confirming the Novosuybyshevsk oil refinery fire in Samara Oblast after a UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Bryansk Oblast: Брянская область. Губернатор reports "nine more" Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed overnight. TASS reports that searches are being conducted at the home of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, now confirmed detained on charges of abuse of power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow: TASS reports the death of Irina Podnosova, the Chairman of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation, with Yuri Ivanenko assigned duties. NEW: TASS reports Putin expressed condolences for the death of Podnosova, highlighting high-level recognition of the event. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы posts a video showing water puddles and cleaning operations inside a public building, suggesting a spill or leak. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ТАСС publishes videos showing flooded metro tracks at "Bagrationovskaya" and "Kuntsevskaya" stations due to heavy rain, causing service disruptions. Another video shows a flooded train station/underpass. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ publishes multiple videos showing severe urban flooding in Moscow, with vehicles navigating deep water and commercial establishments affected. The captions contain anti-Russian slogans, suggesting Ukrainian information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA publishes videos showing severe urban flooding in Moscow, with flooded streets, a supermarket, individuals wading through deep water, and a shopping mall interior. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kabardino-Balkaria: ASTRA and Operatyvnyi ZSU report an emergency situation declared due to a mudslide and damaged bridge. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow Development: Новости Москвы reports plans for over 800 sports and 1500 children's playgrounds to be built this year. Новости Москвы also reports that scientists have proven a four-day work week without salary reduction improves employee well-being. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы posts a video showing heavy rain and flooded streets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Crimea: TASS reports three individuals were detained for desecrating a monument. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tyumen: "Операция Z" reports the detention of a migrant for threatening a teenager. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Law Enforcement: TASS reports billionaire Matsotsky appealed his in absentia arrest in a bribery case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the chief editor of the Ryazan online publication "Svoy Kolokolny" (Svoy kolokolnya) Komarov was detained in an extortion case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports a local resident was detained in Veliky Novgorod for planning to join the "Russian Volunteer Corps", a Ukrainian organization banned in Russia. The video shows what appears to be an interrogation, suggesting intelligence/security operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • FSB Activity: FSB reports it thwarted activities of three suspects aiding Ukrainian special services. Colonelcassad confirms three accomplices detained for preparing terrorist attacks. Photos show their correspondence, weapons, and arsons. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow: ASTRA reports security forces detained Dmitry Kisiev, head of the headquarters of former presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports that journalist Yuri Dud, classified as a "foreign agent" in Russia, has been заочно (in absentia) arrested for two months for violating "foreign agent" law. TASS confirms this arrest and states he is on an international wanted list. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Alex Parker Returns states that the court in Moscow заочно (in absentia) arrested journalist Yuri Dud. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports blogger Dud is заочно (in absentia) accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports Yuri Dud is заочно (in absentia) accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF MoD Corruption: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports new criminal cases against former Deputy Minister of Defense Pavel Popov for multi-million ruble bribes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novorossiysk: TASS reports over 20 apartments damaged by a domestic gas explosion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • St. Petersburg: ASTRA and Север.Реалии report two foreign nationals detained near FSB building for dancing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Foreign Vessel Access: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Putin has toughened rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poland General's Death: TASS, Colonelcassad, and Alex Parker Returns report the death of Polish General Waldemar Skrzypczak. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a photo message reporting the death of former Polish Land Forces commander Waldemar Skrzypczak, highlighting his calls to attack Belarus and Kaliningrad Oblast. This is a clear RF information operation aiming to vilify a deceased foreign military figure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF MFA Statements: TASS reports RF MFA states RF significantly expanded list of EU representatives and EU institutions banned from entering Russia. TASS also reports "Western countries continue to use Ukraine as a tool to wage war against Russia." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Media Raids: TASS, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, and Север.Реалии report police and OMON conducted searches at "Baza" publication's editorial office and the editor-in-chief's apartment. Alex Parker Returns claims the editor-in-chief was arrested due to illegal dissemination of restricted information. TASS also provides video showing the situation at the Baza office. Операция Z reports a criminal case for exceeding authority has been opened against police officers in Moscow who leaked information, and searches are ongoing at the office of a Telegram channel. TASS reports investigators detained not only the editor-in-chief of Baza, Trifonova, but also several other employees for questioning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes video claiming police officers who leaked information to Baza have been detained, along with five Baza employees including the editor-in-chief. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports the chief editor of Telegram channel Baza, Gleb Trifonov, and his colleague were detained in Moscow for bribery and taken to the RF Investigative Committee. This confirms continued crackdowns on media. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • IT Military Deferral: TASS reports that the acceptance of applications for IT deferrals from military service has begun. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pensioner Treason Case: ASTRA reports a pensioner from Izhevsk sentenced to 15 years for treason but released due to health. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Supreme Court Memorial: TASS reports a memorial service for Irina Podnosova was held. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Yuri Kara Funeral: TASS reports and provides video of the funeral of film director Yuri Kara in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Transbaikal Region: ASTRA reports a teenager claiming torture after detention for forest arson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow Drone Facility Attack: РБК-Україна reports a car belonging to the head of a company manufacturing drones for occupiers was burned in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Roskomnadzor: TASS reports Roskomnadzor blocked 56,000 resources with extremist materials. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Law on Extremist Materials: TASS reports State Duma adopted law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns reinforces this, stating the Duma approved fines up to 5,000 rubles for searching/viewing extremist materials via VPN, and up to 500,000 rubles for advertising VPN services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the State Duma has adopted amendments related to requirements for owners of audiovisual services and social networks regarding blocking films that lack distribution certificates or discredit Russian spiritual and moral values. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Families of SVO Fighters: TASS reports State Duma allowed widows of SVO fighters to use their cars until inheritance is issued. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Second Child Credit Holidays: Басурин о главном reports Russian families with a second child will receive 1.5 years of credit holidays. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • St. Petersburg (Internal Security): TASS reports security forces conducting operations at the Mikhailovsky Theater. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) This operation appears related to a film crew and cultural event, not military action. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF State Duma: TASS reports the State Duma has approved the transfer of data regarding migrant children enrollment in schools to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports State Duma Deputy Mikhail Tarasenko (United Russia) has died from illness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the Duma adopted an amendment fining citizens for disclosing state secrets in media. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes video showing a formal session, identified by a watermark as '@vv_volodin', discussing "labor migrants." This appears to be a state Duma session. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the State Duma has adopted several laws aimed at preventing embezzlement and withdrawal of funds, focusing on increasing the effectiveness of combating such crimes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the Duma restricted the sale of electronic railway tickets through third-party aggregators that are not carriers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы publishes a photo message stating a draft law for year-round military conscription has been submitted to the State Duma. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Messengers: TASS reports that blocking foreign messengers in Russia is not planned; it's about compliance with Russian requirements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Internal Affairs: Операция Z shares an image with text about "traitors-Nazis from Russia" being handed over to Moscow by Kyiv, with some committing suicide. This is an RF information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z reports that Ukrainian MP Skorokhod admitted that TCC (military recruitment centers) "beat mobilized people to death" across Ukraine. This is an RF information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Armenian Insiders: "Два майора" reports "Armenian insiders" claim security forces will soon work with businessmen close to Pashinyan who conduct business in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kaliningrad "Conqueror" Dies: Старше Эдды reports the death of the "conqueror" of Kaliningrad, a cultural/historical reference. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow Airport: WarGonzo questions what is happening at Moscow airport during a "carpet plan" (drone attack), highlighting continued public concern over drone attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports 517 flights were canceled at Moscow and St. Petersburg airports between July 19-22, affecting 75,000 passengers, due to drone attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a serviceman could not see his family due to air collapse. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Trump Administration & PRO: TASS reports the Trump administration is looking for an alternative to Musk's SpaceX for creating a "Golden Dome" missile defense system. РБК-Україна publishes a photo message implying Trump is seeking alternatives to SpaceX. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donbas Drought: Mash на Донбассе provides photo messages of the dried-up Khanzhenkovo reservoir, which supplied water to cities in DNR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Mash на Донбассе posts photos to solicit user-generated content, but the content of the images is not directly relevant to military intelligence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volunteer Aid (RF forces): Colonelcassad publishes a video about collecting aid for a 4th vehicle convoy along the KatyaValya line, indicating continued reliance on civilian support for their forces. The video shows a large quantity of new dirt bikes/motorcycles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Народная милиция ДНР publishes photo messages for a fundraising drive for three units actively fighting on the ground in the Sumy direction, indicating continued reliance on volunteer aid for frontline forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок makes an appeal for support from the people of Russia for soldiers on the front lines. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad shows two civilian Lada Niva vehicles being prepared for service on the front line, indicating continued reliance on civilian vehicle support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow News (Internal): Новости Москвы provides a video about "what you can't google now," likely a commentary on internet restrictions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы reports that registration fees for vehicles and driver's licenses will increase from September 1, 2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Population Decline: TASS reports the global population will begin to decline from the 2040s, a challenge for the world economy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS publishes a photo message stating China's population may significantly decrease to 500-700 million by the end of the century due to a halved birth rate, as stated by Oreshkin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Public Wi-Fi: TASS reports the State Duma proposed a program for public Wi-Fi access points across Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Omsk Scam: TASS reports a scam in Omsk where 2.9 million rubles were stolen from an 18-year-old under the guise of flower delivery, with part of the money allegedly sent to aid Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sochi Detainee: ASTRA reports a Sochi resident arrested for "discrediting" the RF army was transferred to a psychiatric hospital after an alleged suicide attempt. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kursk Oblast: TASS reports the military court sentenced Lithuanian Bartkevichius to 23 years in absentia for desecrating a military grave and other terror-related crimes in Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора reports the acting governor of Kursk Oblast reports RF AD engaged Ukrainian targets in the sky and no casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sporting Event: TASS reports Russian synchronized swimmers took second place at the World Championship, the first time in 27 years they didn't win gold. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Beer Production: TASS publishes a photo message claiming Russia has displaced Germany from the top five largest beer producers in the world. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Law Enforcement Detention: Север.Реалии reports that detentions related to the case of leaking official information occurred in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Krasnodar Krai, and Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Azerbaijan Claims: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Azerbaijan has submitted evidence to Russia of torture and murder of two Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia: TASS reports mass events have been suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats of assassination attempts on servicemen by Ukrainian special services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volgograd Oblast: Два майора reports a Telegram channel author in Volgograd was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Steven Seagal: TASS reports actor Steven Seagal has left one of his last projects in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kaluga Oblast: Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on a crime involving migrant children in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Gambling Advertisement: Alex Parker Returns publishes a video that is an advertisement for online gambling, irrelevant to military intelligence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Blagoveshchensk (New): Два майора publishes video and photo messages claiming the exposure of a "PLO-OPG" (presumably criminal group) involved in harassing locals, indicating internal law enforcement activity against domestic criminal elements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novgorod Oblast (New): TASS reports the arrest of Konstantin Kuranov, Minister of Transport and Road Management for Novgorod Oblast, on bribery charges. ASTRA provides photo confirmation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad reports that the Minister of Transport and Road Management of Novgorod Oblast, Konstantin Kuranov, has been arrested in Moscow on bribery charges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Trump on China (New): TASS reports Trump stated he would likely visit China in the near future and did not exclude talks with Putin during this visit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Trump on Obama (New): TASS reports Trump called on the US Department of Justice to investigate Obama for manipulating intelligence data related to US elections and Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Voronezh (New): TASS reports that doctors in Voronezh saved a two-year-old child who swallowed 48 magnets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) This is civilian news, not militarily significant.
• Sumy Oblast: RF conducted a strike on Sumy community's Kovpakivskyi district. Two explosions heard, likely from KABs, impacting residential area and causing damage to apartment building. Three injured, now increased to 12. Emergency services on site. 5 multi-story buildings, a shopping center, and 18 cars damaged. Threat of aviation munitions for Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. Colonelcassad reports "Anvar" unit operating in the border areas of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, providing drone footage of UAF positions, indicating continued RF reconnaissance and targeting efforts. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs are heading towards southeastern Sumy Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast (near Mena, Koryukivka), and a UAV from northeast towards Sumy, with possible AD activity. KAB launches confirmed on Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy: RBC-Ukraine and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publish video and photo evidence showing the aftermath of KAB strikes, confirming three injured, including a child. NEW: STERNENKO reports a woman was killed in Sumy due to a drone attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports RF attacked Sumy with drones in daylight, damaging a medical facility and playground. A woman and a child were injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a video showing a street scene in Sumy, with a Ukrainian flag overlay and Sumy regional emblem, with dialogue in Russian, likely for propaganda purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia launched another strike on Sumy Oblast, resulting in power outages for some consumers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing emergency responders aiding injured individuals, including a child, in a damaged residential building in Sumy following an RF attack, confirming 1 fatality and 10 injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ASTRA reports a woman died and others were injured due to a massive Russian UAV strike in Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy Direction: "Два майора" publishes FPV drone footage claiming to target a UAF soldier. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports a high-speed target heading towards Sumy from Kursk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports direction of target towards Khotin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Varachino, Sumy Oblast: Операция Z and "Воин DV" claim Russian army liberated Varachino, pushing UAF from Russian borders in Sumy Oblast. This is an unverified RF claim. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Sumy Oblast: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy UAVs in northern Sumy Oblast with possible AD activity. NEW: Air Force reports a likely reconnaissance UAV heading north towards Sumy city. NEW: Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. Means for their destruction have been engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kryvyi Rih: Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 22.07.25. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Oleksandr Vilkul provides a briefing summary highlighting the controlled situation in Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Andriivka: Военкор Котенок shares civilian testimonial from displaced person, highlighting destruction and humanitarian impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Krasny Liman: Сливочный каприз publishes photo messages regarding Krasny Liman - Zelyonaya Dolina. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Odesa: Colonelcassad publishes multi-panel image related to Odesa, likely showing areas affected by strikes or for future targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Crimean Shores: "Два майора" publishes video showing military-style inflatable boat with personnel, indicating maritime operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Novomikhailovka: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of a woman mourning her son, a Russian SMO participant who died storming Novomikhailovka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Grushevske, Donetsk Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF army occupied Hrushevske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Dachne, Donetsk Oblast: Народная милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Toretsk Direction: Олексій Білошицький provides video captioned "Adventures of patrolmen in Toretsk direction🤙". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Lugansk (LNR): Рыбарь reports on an incident in Lugansk, without further details. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Mash на Донбассе reports a court recognized the "Kastus Kalinovsky Regiment" as a terrorist organization, indicating RF legal actions against Ukrainian-affiliated groups. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Lithuania-Belarus Border: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА publishes graphic on Lithuanian military exercises near Belarus border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast: STERNENKO reports a gas worker, Igor Goncharenko, was killed by Russians in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Zaporizhzhia Front: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes photos showing continued reinforcement of the Zaporizhzhia front, with military personnel and equipment (drones, radio equipment). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a video message about strengthening the front in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including increasing the defense fund to 3 billion hryvnias, constructing an anti-drone road on the Orikhivskyyi highway, and plans for over 200 km of such infrastructure. Mentions a meeting with the Minister of Defense and President Zelenskyy's decision on Ukraine's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention (anti-personnel mines), stating daily production and delivery of 1,000-2,000 mine components. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Pokrovsk: Рыбарь channel publishes videos claiming to show Russian infantry in Pokrovsk. One video shows an aerial view of a road intersection with a damaged/abandoned vehicle and several figures, suggesting RF ground presence or recent activity. Another video appears to show a casual civilian drive with an injured arm visible, context unclear but low military significance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes drone footage showing an armored vehicle being engaged in Pokrovsk by AIRNOMADS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны publish video claiming fierce battles, increased pace of advance, and destruction of enemy equipment and personnel near Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Moscow: Север.Реалии publishes a video showing a protest in Moscow, with an activist being detained by police while holding a sign criticizing censorship and the war. Pro-Kremlin activists are attempting to disrupt the protest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukraine (Internal Affairs): Стрелков Игорь Иванович reports Ukrainian authorities have mandated UOC to declare a break with ROC by August 18, or face prohibition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kaluga Oblast: Alex Parker Returns reports a crime involving migrant children in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Luhansk Direction (New): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is crowdfunding for two copters for artillery reconnaissance in the Luhansk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Ukraine General: Night operations provide low visibility, favoring RF UAV and missile saturation tactics. Kharkiv Oblast expects worsening weather (heavy rains, thunderstorms), which could impact ground operations. Oleg Synegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, reports significant weather deterioration is possible in the near future. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kyiv City: RBC-Ukraine and Оперативний ЗСУ publish videos showing a crane collapse due to strong winds/storm. RBC-Ukraine also reports heavy rain causing flooded streets in Kyiv. This indicates significant adverse weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports 5 individuals hospitalized in Kyiv due to bad weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dry Landscape (New): Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video showing a dry, somewhat barren landscape with smoke plumes in the distance, potentially indicating recent fires or controlled burning, which could affect ground mobility and visibility. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Russia: Heavy rainfall in Moscow Oblast indicates adverse weather conditions. Bridge collapse in Moscow region due to heavy rains confirmed, cutting off villages. Significant flooding confirmed in Moscow. TASS reports 15 "Tavriya" trains delayed in communication with Crimea. Train delays at Paveletsky Station due to weather. All trains to Black Sea resorts on July 22 will follow schedule. NEW: Старше Эдды implies human intervention in Moscow's heavy rains, suggesting a conspiracy theory about weather manipulation. NEW: Новости Москвы publishes video showing heavy rain in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ТАСС publishes videos showing flooded metro tracks at "Bagrationovskaya" and "Kuntsevskaya" stations due to heavy rain, causing service disruptions. Another video shows a flooded train station/underpass. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ publishes multiple videos showing severe urban flooding in Moscow, with vehicles navigating deep water and commercial establishments affected. This indicates significant weather impacts on civilian infrastructure in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA publishes videos showing severe urban flooding in Moscow, with flooded streets, a supermarket, individuals wading through deep water, and a shopping mall interior. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kabardino-Balkaria: ASTRA and Operatyvnyi ZSU report a mudslide in Tyrnyauz and a damaged bridge support due to severe flooding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donbas Drought: Mash на Донбассе provides photo messages of the dried-up Khanzhenkovo reservoir, which supplied water to cities in DNR. This indicates a significant drought, impacting water supply for civilian populations and potentially military operations in the area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Illegal Logging (Ukraine Carpathians): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports large-scale illegal logging in Ukrainian Carpathians caused 55.8 million UAH in damages. This is an environmental issue, not directly war-related. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF:
  • Air Defense (AD): Fully engaged nationwide against multi-vector RF aerial assault, including Tu-95MS launched cruise missiles (24 confirmed), ballistic missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic missiles from MiG-31K, and OWA UAVs (Shahed, 426 confirmed). AD actively tracked multiple missile groups across multiple oblasts. Kyiv AD actively engaged approximately 10 inbound Shaheds and multiple missiles. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast AD shot down 14 UAVs (previously 7). President Zelenskyy reports UAF AD destroyed over 20 missiles and the "overwhelming majority" of drones (344 of 623 total aerial targets). Southern Defense Forces report 18 Shaheds destroyed in their operational zone. Air Force reports 224 targets shot down/suppressed, with 203 UAVs not reaching targets due to loss of localization/REB. Germany to provide 5 Patriot systems and ammunition. Norway ready to provide significant additional funding for Ukraine's air defense. UAF AF reports UAV threat for Kharkiv Oblast. Sili Oborony Pivdnya Ukraїny video shows Ukrainian soldiers operating a ZU-23 anti-aircraft gun mounted on a truck countering Russian Shahed drones in Mykolaiv area, claiming over 30 air targets neutralized. Air Defense is active in Odesa, engaging Shahed UAVs. Netherlands will make a significant contribution to US Patriot AD systems. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video of 31st Brigade anti-aircraft drone systems successfully attacking Russian drones in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. As of 06:00Z, 26 enemy UAVs have been shot down/suppressed, with 7 more failing to reach targets due to loss of localization/REB. Air Force confirmed 42 Russian UAVs attacked overnight. Enemy UAV in Black Sea, course to Odesa, AD engaged. UAV from northeast towards Sumy, with possible AD activity. Reconnaissance UAVs on northeast of Chernihiv and southeast of Kryvyi Rih. NEW: Air Force reports a likely reconnaissance UAV heading north towards Sumy city. NEW: Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. Means for their destruction have been engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showcasing the "Pomsta" (Revenge) Brigade of the State Border Guard Service (DPSU) using drone interceptors to hunt Russian UAVs, including ZALA, Supercam, and Orlan. The video shows successful engagements and the aftermath of a downed drone, confirming specialized counter-drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: STERNENKO publishes a video showing a drone flying in the sky, with Ukrainian emblems and a QR code for donations, captioned "Signum unit of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade continuously stands guard over our sky!", indicating continued air defense and fundraising efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: РБК-Україна reports Germany will transfer two Patriot systems if they can be quickly replaced, as stated by Pistorius. This indicates continued, albeit conditional, international AD support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports Germany's willingness to transfer two Patriot systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Военкор Котенок reports German Defense Minister Pistorius is ready to quickly supply Kyiv with two Patriot systems, provided the US replaces them within 6-8 months. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Services: Actively engaged across multiple oblasts. Minister of Internal Affairs reports 15 fires due to Russian shelling, 13 liquidated. KMVA confirms rescue and emergency work ongoing nationwide. Cleanup and emergency services are working in Sumy. Confirmed images and videos from RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU show State Emergency Service (DSNS) personnel actively engaged in firefighting and damage assessment operations in Odesa. DSNS Ukraine confirms three injured, including a child, in Sumy. STERNENKO confirms one person injured in Odesa. DSNS and local authorities are actively engaged in Kramatorsk. Олексій Білошицький reports paramedics assisting a civilian in Sloviansk after a Russian attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing emergency responders aiding injured individuals in a damaged residential building in Sumy, confirming active emergency response. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Control Measures: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats lifted, localized drone alerts persist. Public warnings for shelter ongoing. Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) providing updates; Lukyanivska metro station now fully reopened. Brig. Gen. Hennadiy Shapovalov appointed new commander of UAF Ground Forces. Ukraine plans to open four new embassies. Zelenskyy states new negotiations with Russia planned for Wednesday in Istanbul. Odesa Oblast Military Administration calls for residents to take shelter. ZAPORIZHZHIYA OBLAST MILITARY ADMINISTRATION HAS LIFTED AIR RAID ALERT. Kryvyi Rih mayor states situation is controlled. Generall Staff continues daily photos promoting nationwide moment of silence. RBC-Ukraine reports President Zelenskyy introduced NSDC decision on moratorium on baseless checks and interference by state bodies in business activities. Rustem Umierov will lead the Ukrainian delegation for negotiations with Russia, as stated by Zelenskyy. Rada considers bill to limit NABU/SAP powers today. Zelenskyy states focus on prisoner exchanges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports on the moratorium on business inspections, highlighting its implications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы reports on a proposal in the State Duma to allow pregnant women and mothers with children to park in handicapped spaces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Security Services: SBU and OGP conducting special operation to "neutralize Russian influence on NABU." Detention of NABU detective head (Ruslan Magamedrasulov) suspected of aiding RF. Over 70 searches conducted. SBU initiated comprehensive check on adherence to state secrets legislation in SAP. General Director of "Forests of Ukraine" served suspicion for illegal enrichment. Detention of NABU elite unit "D-2" employee suspected of spying for Russian special services confirmed. President Zelenskyy emphasized need for legal architecture to hold Russia accountable for war. Ukraine returned a teenager forcibly taken from Mariupol to Russia. G7 Ambassadors alarmed by NABU scandal. Ukrainian police helped neutralize pro-Russian hacker network NoName057(16). A court has remanded NABU employee Viktor Husarov into custody without bail. An employee of NABU's "most elite closed unit," suspected of treason, has had a pre-trial detention measure chosen. NABU Director Krivonos called on Zelenskyy not to sign bill limiting NABU and SAP powers. Prosecutor General's Office reports new facts of restricted information leaks from NABU. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора publishes a photo message stating the General Prosecutor's Office is systematically holding accountable individuals working for the enemy, highlighting the exposure and sentencing of "traitors." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes photo messages about an international police special operation that identified a "pseudominer" of facilities in Czechia, Slovakia, and Latvia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the court arrested the head of a NABU unit, suspected of aiding the aggressor state. This confirms continued action against internal threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Офіс Генерального прокурора publishes photo messages related to a criminal organization with 9 drug labs and monthly turnover over 7 million UAH, indicating continued efforts by Ukrainian law enforcement to combat organized crime. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора also reports holding a meeting with G7 representatives, SBU, and SBI. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that international partners have received answers regarding the work of Ukrainian law enforcement agencies and the recent special operation to neutralize Russian influence on NABU, as stated by Prosecutor General Kravchenko. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Foreign Volunteers: 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" claims 2,000 Colombians fighting in its ranks. TASS claims UAF deployed a platoon of "Latin American mercenaries" to Aleksandrovgrad, DNR, and then claims they fled. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing Ukrainian soldiers, identified as being of Latin American origin, participating in combat training exercises on Sumy region, with their commander stating 2,000 Colombian servicemen have come to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Resource Requirements: UAF National Guard's "Rubizh" brigade crowdfunding for "destroyed property and equipment." Zelenskyy emphasizes need for increased domestic production of weapons and drones (50% within six months). Ukraine needs $6 billion to cover gap in weapons procurement. Britain transferred $200 million of $940 million in air defense assets and artillery shells. Urgent fundraiser for drones for UAF 32nd Steel Brigade. French companies ready to start drone production in Ukraine. Canada will allocate $14.6 million USD for maintenance of Ukrainian tanks and finance Ukrainian defense industry. Canada will allocate $15 million for Leopard 2 tank repairs. NATO can provide additional funding for Ukrainian army. Netherlands provides €200M for interceptor drones and €125M for F-16 maintenance. Ukraine will need at least $120 billion for defense next year. РБК-Україна publishes a video appeal from the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade's artillery unit, requesting Electronic Warfare (EW) systems for combat tasks and safe logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: STERNENKO provides photo and video messages showing a new batch of 417 drones delivered to the front line, and military personnel unboxing mortar rounds/artillery shells and expressing gratitude for the support, indicating ongoing resupply efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: РБК-Україна publishes a photo message stating that Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko claims up to 90% of strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this year were carried out by drones, highlighting the significant threat and resource strain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) DeepState reports Ukraine will need at least $120 billion for defense next year. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is crowdfunding for two copters for artillery reconnaissance for the 63rd Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Training: UAF 61st OMBr tank crews conducting rigorous training. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes multiple photos and captions about the role of a sergeant in the military, emphasizing training, motivation, and ideological conviction, likely promoting professional development and morale within the UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF 63rd Mechanized Brigade reports liquidation of 33 RF personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chernihiv: Colonelcassad reports TCC personnel violently detaining a man, indicating aggressive mobilization efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UK Sanctions: The UK has introduced new sanctions against 135 tankers belonging to Russia's "shadow fleet." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Losses: General Staff of UAF provides estimated total combat losses for RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade: Video suggests active counter-drone operations by the 47th Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Domestic Production: Domestic 155-mm Bohdana-BG howitzers have entered service with the 40th Separate Artillery Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Psychological Operations: 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України released a video appealing to RF soldiers to surrender. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Corruption: President of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine suspended. Investigation into illegal coal mining completed. Official of "Forests of Ukraine" notified of suspicion for illegal enrichment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Drone Recruitment: DeepState publishes a recruitment video for the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade's unmanned systems unit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) DeepState promotes an 8-day free IT professions test drive, likely aimed at reskilling individuals for defense or IT sectors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Convict Mobilization: Approximately 9500 convicts have joined the AFU. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukraine-Denmark Drone Interceptor: Ukraine and Denmark are developing an AI-powered drone interceptor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Prosecutor Investigation: Investigations launched into attacks on Odesa, Donetsk, and Sumy regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Currency Exchange Rates: Exchange offices lowered the USD rate and raised the EUR rate. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ramstein Meeting: Generals Staff publishes photo messages indicating participation of Ukrainian Minister of Defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Soldier with Weapon: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes photos aiming to boost morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chief of General Staff at Diplomatic Event: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes photos of Major General Andrii Hnatov speaking at a plenary session for heads of foreign diplomatic institutions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pension for Military Personnel: Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes information on pensions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • F-16 Project: Повітряні Сили ЗС України publishes video showcasing an F-16 fighter jet and mentions a "new project." RBC-Україна reports Air Force received first unique mobile complexes for F-16 maintenance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zelenskyy Meeting: Zelenskiy / Official publishes photo messages regarding a meeting on Ukraine's negotiation results and prisoner exchanges. NEW: Zelenskiy / Official posts a video of President Zelenskyy interacting with military personnel and civilians, presenting awards, reinforcing national unity and recognition of heroes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also publishes the same video from President Zelenskyy, further emphasizing the message of Ukrainian heroes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Occupant Targeting: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing aeroreconnaissance of the 4th battalion of the 101st Brigade targeting a Russian occupant. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes drone video showing a munition drop impacting a group of five Russian occupiers in tall grass, resulting in at least one fatality and multiple serious injuries, attributed to the 1st Separate Special Purpose Detachment of the Omega CSP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • STERNENKO Tactical Action: STERNENKO provides video from "Sanitary Zone Flying Skull" showing drones on fiber optics flying into enemy positions, destroying a car, motorcycle, and enemy property and ammunition. NEW: STERNENKO publishes drone footage showing an engagement using fiber-optic drones against an enemy target, resulting in an explosion and fire, indicating ongoing UAF tactical engagements and effective use of advanced drones. STERNENKO publishes a video showing an FPV drone strike on a Russian military individual, resulting in an explosion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Friendly Civilian Infrastructure: Олександр Вілкул publishes multiple photo messages related to thermal modernization of education facilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Military Administration (OTU "Kharkiv"): ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts a message stating "Treason is needed by the enemy, but the traitor is needed by no one!" ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes drone footage showing the Khartia brigade's engagement against enemy personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, publishes photo messages about strengthening partnership with the French Republic, with images of officials examining a model, suggesting diplomatic efforts to secure aid or cooperation for reconstruction/development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Front Reinforcement: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes photos showing reinforcement efforts at the Zaporizhzhia front, including military personnel and the distribution of drones and communication/EW equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запопорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a video message about strengthening the front in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including increasing the defense fund to 3 billion hryvnias, constructing an anti-drone road on the Orikhivskyyi highway, and plans for over 200 km of such infrastructure. Mentions a meeting with the Minister of Defense and President Zelenskyy's decision on Ukraine's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention (anti-personnel mines), stating daily production and delivery of 1,000-2,000 mine components. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Medical Front Forum: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes multiple photo messages from a forum titled "Medical Front: experience, challenges, future" held in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating focus on military medicine and support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes photo messages regarding the professional holiday for miners and metallurgists, and rewarding them for their work and assistance in supporting defense capabilities. This highlights civilian contribution to the war effort. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • FPV Storm: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes a video titled "FPV-storm from Slobozhansky paratroopers!", showing drone footage of an attack on a military target (possibly a vehicle or structure) in a wooded area, with explosions and smoke plumes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NABU/SAP Legislation: STERNENKO publishes photo messages showing the list of MPs who voted for the bill to limit the independence of NABU and SAP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes a video of a parliamentary session where the bill was voted on. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns claim Zelenskyy has signed the law liquidating the independence of anti-corruption bodies, reinforcing the narrative that the legislation has been enacted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO reports the court chose pre-trial detention without bail for Ruslan Magamedrasulov, a head of a NABU detective unit, until September 16. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Prisoner of War Affairs: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) publishes multiple photos from a meeting with the families of soldiers from the 150th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, indicating ongoing efforts to support families and address POW issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Public Health Campaign (New): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a public service announcement video on the dangers of tobacco and nicotine products, particularly for youth. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Video showcasing tactical effectiveness (New): Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video with the caption "😎🇺🇦", depicting a car driving past smoke plumes in a dry landscape, likely a compilation of frontline footage for morale or information purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Drone strike footage (New): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes a video with the caption "Нові "шедеври" "Мосфільму"", showing a person wrapped in black plastic, bound to a tree, in camouflage, suggesting a potentially controversial or ambiguous image. (CONFIDENCE: LOW - as the content is ambiguous and not clearly military in nature). This appears to be a misinterpretation of the provided text analysis, the description of "person wrapped in black plastic" is not typical "Mosfilm" production. This is likely a propaganda video.
  • Inter-regional cooperation (New): 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes photos regarding a visit from Myroslav Biletskyi, Head of Zakarpattia Oblast Military Administration, indicating inter-regional cooperation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Israeli MFA Visit to Kyiv (New): РБК-Україна reports Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar has arrived in Kyiv. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms the visit of Israeli Foreign Minister. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar has arrived in Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RUF:
  • Deep Operations (UAV/Missile/Aviation Munitions): RF executing high-volume, multi-wave, multi-domain deep strike campaign. Included Tu-95MS strategic bomber launches (24 cruise missiles), sustained Shahed UAV attacks (426 confirmed), and re-engagement of MiG-31K for Kinzhal hypersonic missile launches against Western Ukraine and Kyiv (3 Kinzhals). Colonelcassad claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv. TASS claims RF forces used FABs against UAF reserve positions in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovets Oblast. KABs on Donetsk and Sumy Oblast. MoD Russia claims grouped strike with high-precision long-range air, ground, and sea-based weapons against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, and Sumy city. MoD Russia video shows Kub loitering munitions. Alex Parker Returns explicitly states intent to use "Geranium" (Shaheds) on frontline due to scaled production. Kotsnews publishes video claiming "Harpies are hunting." MoD Russia video shows drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) claims a powerful strike on a UAF training ground in Kirovohrad Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes video claiming a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike on a target in Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, with thick smoke billowing from a partially destroyed building, confirming continued RF kinetic activity in the area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS publishes video showing FPV drone operators from "Rubikon" center striking AFU armored vehicles and personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a large explosion and secondary explosions in a semi-urban/rural area, characteristic of a missile strike or heavy artillery impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Aviation: RF airports lifted temporary restrictions. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claims 18 UAVs destroyed over Moscow; RF MoD claims 35 UAVs over RF territory were destroyed overnight. "Воин DV" claims bomber strikes in Yanvarskyi. TASS confirms Vnukovo airport resumed normal operations. TASS reports RF MoD claims 14 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kaluga, Bryansk, Tula, and Oryol Oblasts. Millerovo military airfield in Rostov Oblast attacked by drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a video showing a military aircraft, likely a fighter jet, in flight during low-light conditions, with apparent explosion or impact. NEW: Fighterbomber publishes video showing a military helicopter flying low over a field, likely conducting reconnaissance or attack operations. Fighterbomber publishes a photo message of winter-themed aerial footage, likely aimed at evoking a sense of calm or natural power, rather than direct military action. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Operations (Popov Yar, Bila Hora claim, Malaya Tokmachka claim): RF Ministry of Defense claims ground forces liberated "Popov Yar." DeepState reports RF advances in Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, and near three other villages in Donetsk Oblast. MoD Russia provides video of servicemen from 102nd Motorised Rifle Regiment on Popov Yar. RF milbloggers claim RF has opened a new front in Kharkiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares thermal imagery video indicating activity on Chasiv Yar direction. Басурин о главном video confirms Russian military operations near Belaya Gora, claiming capture of foreign weapons. Liveuamap Source reports multiple clashes across Eastern axes. Colonelcassad claims a Russian breakthrough in Malaya Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. MoD Russia video shows T-72B3M tank crew destroying AFU stronghold near Zeleny Gai. STERNENKO video reports Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment holding back Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad claims assault troops of 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade advancing in Bila Hora area. Colonelcassad claims enemy is complaining about RF using lightweight 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from North Korea. DeepState analysis indicates RF army occupied Hrushevske and advanced near Voskresenka, Orikhove, Mayak and Zatyhka (formerly Suvorove) in Donetsk Oblast. TASS and MoD Russia claim RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske in DNR. Народная милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles near Dachne. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны publish video claiming fierce battles, increased pace of advance, and destruction of enemy equipment and personnel near Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: TASS reports RF forces advanced near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast, dislodging UAF units from several positions. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Popov Yar, Donetsk Oblast: TASS reports a group of Ukrainian servicemen surrendered. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • South-Donetsk Direction: Colonelcassad provides video footage of 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade's reconnaissance working in South-Donetsk direction, claiming destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pokrovsk: "Операция Z", WarGonzo, and Alex Parker Returns publish videos claiming RF DRG activity, with video suggesting an ambush on a UAF vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Рыбарь channel publishes a photo and video indicating "Russian infantry in Pokrovsk." The video, likely from a drone, shows a road intersection with a damaged/abandoned vehicle and several figures, suggesting RF ground presence or recent activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes video claiming to show drone footage of an AFU armored vehicle being engaged in Pokrovsk by AIRNOMADS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Басурин о главном publishes video claiming "underground forces" are burning UAF SUVs from Kramatorsk to Kyiv, with footage of a UAF SUV burning after an attack, indicating alleged deep rear operations by pro-RF elements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Varachino, Sumy Oblast: Операция Z and "Воин DV" claim Russian army liberated Varachino. This is an unverified RF claim. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: Colonelcassad publishes a video showing RF engineering-road platoon personnel engaged in demining operations in "liberated territory." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Luhansk Oblast: TASS reports that RF forces have built new fortifications and observation posts near Chervona Dibrova. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tactical Drone Operations: MoD Russia provides video showing "Feniks" (Phoenix) drone in action. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Воин DV publishes drone video claiming the 305th Artillery Brigade using a Lancet loitering munition to strike a UAF Dana self-propelled howitzer, followed by additional fire from a "Hyacinth" artillery system. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes video claiming "exemplary work" of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 5th Guards Tank Brigade drone operators in destroying AFU armored vehicles and personnel near Alexandrovgrad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Военкор Котенок claims destruction of a Ukrainian boat with personnel in Kherson direction using a fiber-optic FPV drone, indicating continued RF FPV operations against UAF small craft. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS publishes video showing FPV drone operators from "Rubikon" center striking AFU armored vehicles and personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Басурин о главном publishes a video showcasing the 'Omich' (Омич) robotic complex, a tracked ground vehicle for logistical and support roles, highlighting its terrain traversal, payload, and dual control, indicating continued RF focus on robotic systems for frontline support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора publishes several images and claims about RF drone trials organized by BRAVE1, implying RF development of military technologies. This is a misinterpretation of the original source. The captions are in Russian, but the text "BRAVE1" and "ВСУ" clearly indicate this is a Ukrainian (UAF) development initiative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar: Colonelcassad provides video footage claiming the destruction of a UAF UAV command post on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Belgorod Oblast: ASTRA reports two people injured by an FPV drone attack on a vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Eastern Ukraine: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Izium, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk were hit by RF strikes on military objects. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Armored Personnel Carrier Deployment: TASS publishes video showing an RF armored personnel carrier (APC) maneuvering. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle, moving along a road, with one appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) during movement, captioned: "Вывалился. Быть добру!" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Control Measures: RF maintained temporary flight restrictions, now being lifted. RF actively promoting narrative of successful counter-UAV measures. RF Prime Minister Mishustin announced ~180 billion rubles for border crossing point repairs. Moldovan national detained for transmitting data on RF Armed Forces to Kyiv. Man detained in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD facilities. Colonelcassad shares a photo of a monument dedicated to "Hitler's allies" in Moldova, accompanied by text criticizing it. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Operations: "Операция Z" reports the Russian warship "Boykiy" escorted the tanker "General Skobelev" and the dry cargo ship "Sparta" from the Baltic Sea through the North Sea and English Channel to the Atlantic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Affairs: The Khabarovsk Krai Police has published photo messages detailing a criminal case regarding hooliganism. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports that doctors in Voronezh saved a two-year-old child who swallowed 48 magnets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Economic Affairs: TASS reports Prime Minister Mishustin arrived in Chita to hold a meeting on grain exports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Religious Propaganda: "Операция Z" has published videos promoting Orthodox Christian traditions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Hacking Activity: TASS reports the detention of a young man in Novosibirsk for hacking information resources. ASTRA reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. TASS reports investigators opened a criminal case against an internet channel administrator for extortion and public justification of terrorism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора reports the author of a Volgograd Telegram channel was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism, indicating continued RF internal security measures against online dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Slovakia Gas: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Slovakia plans to receive up to 100% of its gas from Russia next year. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security: "Два майора" discusses the sentencing of Azerbaijani natives involved in organizing illegal migration. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Старше Эдды discusses the need for strict prohibition on migrant family members entering Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Political/Legal: TASS reports the death of Irina Podnosova, the Chairman of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation. TASS confirms the cause of death was cancer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports the funeral of film director Yuri Kara in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad reports the Duma adopted an amendment fining citizens for disclosing state secrets in media. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the State Duma has adopted several laws aimed at preventing embezzlement and withdrawal of funds, focusing on increasing the effectiveness of combating such crimes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video showing film director Igor Bogomolov, husband of Ksenia Sobchak, calling the war with Ukraine "the luck and happiness of our generation," and noting Putin awarded him the title "Honored Artist of Russia" the next day. This indicates state recognition of pro-war cultural figures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Negotiations: TASS reports Peskov stated that the discussion of draft memorandums between Moscow and Kyiv will be the topic of negotiations in Istanbul. TASS also reports the Kremlin expects the new round of direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations to take place this week. TASS reports Peskov stated that Moscow and Kyiv need to work a lot before discussing prospects for a summit meeting. Colonelcassad publishes Peskov's statements on negotiations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dagestan, Russia: TASS reports 4 people, including 2 children, died in a car accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Milblogger (Culture): Народная милиция ДНР publishes a video on #КультураДНР, likely for internal morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Milblogger (Technology): Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition publishes a video on Russia's need for advanced technologies. NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition calls for help with civilian engineering equipment at the front, indicating a logistical gap. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Tu-160: Fighterbomber publishes video of a Tu-160 strategic bomber flying at low altitude. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Folk Group: TASS publishes video of "Buranovskie Babushki" stating they are not afraid of "Myrotvorets." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • MLRS Barrage: MoD Russia publishes a video of Uragan MLRS hitting AFU positions near Temirovka, Zaporizhzhia region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS firing rockets, with a caption "220 millimeters of unreal emotions!", indicating its use in combat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a message with "⚡️ About migrants and fraudsters," likely related to internal security or social issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • St. Petersburg Theater: TASS video shows a street scene in front of the Mikhailovsky Theater in St. Petersburg, with a film crew. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tucker Carlson Interview: Басурин о главном shares a video clip of Tucker Carlson claiming Russia has "won" the confrontation with the West in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Military Offensive Pace: Сливочный каприз shares a chart titled "Pace of offensive operations of the Russian Armed Forces in the NWO zone. Advancement of the Russian Armed Forces, km² per day" showing an increase in daily advances in 2024-2025 compared to 2024. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Motorcycle Supplies: Colonelcassad publishes video showing a large quantity of new dirt bikes/motorcycles, implying significant logistical acquisition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Population Decline: TASS reports the global population will begin to decline from the 2040s, a challenge for the world economy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS publishes a photo message stating China's population may significantly decrease to 500-700 million by the end of the century due to a halved birth rate, as stated by Oreshkin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Public Wi-Fi: TASS reports the State Duma proposed a program for public Wi-Fi access points across Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Omsk Scam: TASS reports a scam in Omsk where 2.9 million rubles were stolen from an 18-year-old under the guise of flower delivery, with part of the money allegedly sent to aid Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sochi Detainee: ASTRA reports a Sochi resident arrested for "discrediting" the RF army was transferred to a psychiatric hospital after an alleged suicide attempt. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kursk Oblast: TASS reports the military court sentenced Lithuanian Bartkevichius to 23 years in absentia for desecrating a military grave and other terror-related crimes in Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора reports the acting governor of Kursk Oblast reports RF AD engaged Ukrainian targets in the sky and no casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sporting Event: TASS reports Russian synchronized swimmers took second place at the World Championship, the first time in 27 years they didn't win gold. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Beer Production: TASS publishes a photo message claiming Russia has displaced Germany from the top five largest beer producers in the world. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Law Enforcement Detention: Север.Реалии reports that detentions related to the case of leaking official information occurred in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Krasnodar Krai, and Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Azerbaijan Claims: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Azerbaijan has submitted evidence to Russia of torture and murder of two Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia: TASS reports mass events have been suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats of assassination attempts on servicemen by Ukrainian special services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volgograd Oblast: Два майора reports a Telegram channel author in Volgograd was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Steven Seagal: TASS reports actor Steven Seagal has left one of his last projects in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kaluga Oblast: Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on a crime involving migrant children in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sumy Oblast: RF conducted a strike on Sumy community's Kovpakivskyi district. Two explosions heard, likely from KABs, impacting residential area and causing damage to apartment building. Three injured, now increased to 12. Emergency services on site. 5 multi-story buildings, a shopping center, and 18 cars damaged. Threat of aviation munitions for Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. Colonelcassad reports "Anvar" unit operating in the border areas of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, providing drone footage of UAF positions, indicating continued RF reconnaissance and targeting efforts. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs are heading towards southeastern Sumy Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast (near Mena, Koryukivka), and a UAV from northeast towards Sumy, with possible AD activity. KAB launches confirmed on Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy: RBC-Ukraine and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publish video and photo evidence showing the aftermath of KAB strikes, confirming three injured, including a child. NEW: STERNENKO reports a woman was killed in Sumy due to a drone attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports RF attacked Sumy with drones in daylight, damaging a medical facility and playground. A woman and a child were injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a video showing a street scene in Sumy, with a Ukrainian flag overlay and Sumy regional emblem, with dialogue in Russian, likely for propaganda purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia launched another strike on Sumy Oblast, resulting in power outages for some consumers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing emergency responders aiding injured individuals, including a child, in a damaged residential building in Sumy following an RF attack, confirming 1 fatality and 10 injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy Direction: "Два майора" publishes FPV drone footage claiming to target a UAF soldier. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports a high-speed target heading towards Sumy from Kursk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports direction of target towards Khotin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Varachino, Sumy Oblast: Операция Z and "Воин DV" claim Russian army liberated Varachino, pushing UAF from Russian borders in Sumy Oblast. This is an unverified RF claim. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Sumy Oblast: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy UAVs in northern Sumy Oblast with possible AD activity. NEW: Air Force reports a likely reconnaissance UAV heading north towards Sumy city. NEW: Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. Means for their destruction have been engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kryvyi Rih: Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 22.07.25. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Oleksandr Vilkul provides a briefing summary highlighting the controlled situation in Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Andriivka: Военкор Котенок shares civilian testimonial from displaced person, highlighting destruction and humanitarian impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Krasny Liman: Сливочный каприз publishes photo messages regarding Krasny Liman - Zelyonaya Dolina. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Odesa: Colonelcassad publishes multi-panel image related to Odesa, likely showing areas affected by strikes or for future targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Crimean Shores: "Два майора" publishes video showing military-style inflatable boat with personnel, indicating maritime operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Novomikhailovka: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of a woman mourning her son, a Russian SMO participant who died storming Novomikhailovka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Grushevske, Donetsk Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF army occupied Hrushevske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Dachne, Donetsk Oblast: Народная милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Toretsk Direction: Олексій Білошицький provides video captioned "Adventures of patrolmen in Toretsk direction🤙". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Lugansk (LNR): Рыбарь reports on an incident in Lugansk, without further details. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Mash на Донбассе reports a court recognized the "Kastus Kalinovsky Regiment" as a terrorist organization, indicating RF legal actions against Ukrainian-affiliated groups. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Lithuania-Belarus Border: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА publishes graphic on Lithuanian military exercises near Belarus border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast: STERNENKO reports a gas worker, Igor Goncharenko, was killed by Russians in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Zaporizhzhia Front: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes photos showing continued reinforcement of the Zaporizhzhia front, with military personnel and equipment (drones, radio equipment). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a video message about strengthening the front in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including increasing the defense fund to 3 billion hryvnias, constructing an anti-drone road on the Orikhivskyyi highway, and plans for over 200 km of such infrastructure. Mentions a meeting with the Minister of Defense and President Zelenskyy's decision on Ukraine's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention (anti-personnel mines), stating daily production and delivery of 1,000-2,000 mine components. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Pokrovsk: Рыбарь channel publishes videos claiming to show Russian infantry in Pokrovsk. One video shows an aerial view of a road intersection with a damaged/abandoned vehicle and several figures, suggesting RF ground presence or recent activity. Another video appears to show a casual civilian drive with an injured arm visible, context unclear but low military significance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes drone footage showing an armored vehicle being engaged in Pokrovsk by AIRNOMADS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны publish video claiming fierce battles, increased pace of advance, and destruction of enemy equipment and personnel near Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Moscow: Север.Реалии publishes a video showing a protest in Moscow, with an activist being detained by police while holding a sign criticizing censorship and the war. Pro-Kremlin activists are attempting to disrupt the protest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukraine (Internal Affairs): Стрелков Игорь Иванович reports Ukrainian authorities have mandated UOC to declare a break with ROC by August 18, or face prohibition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kaluga Oblast: Alex Parker Returns reports a crime involving migrant children in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.4. Recent Additions and Updates

• Kramatorsk/Sloviansk Civilian Casualties (Updated): ASTRA and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report 12 injured after aviation strikes on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Олексій Білошицький reports Russian attack on Sloviansk. Paramedics from the "Predator" brigade assisted an 81-year-old woman. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Media Raids (Updated): TASS confirms security forces seized equipment and documentation during searches at Baza's editorial office in Moscow. TASS reports СК completed searches. TASS reports investigators detained not only the editor-in-chief of Baza, Trifonova, but also several other employees for questioning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA publishes a video showing security personnel escorting Baza employees, including the editor-in-chief, after searches. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes video claiming police officers who leaked information to Baza have been detained, along with five Baza employees including the editor-in-chief. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Two Baza employees were released without charges, but the editor-in-chief and two colleagues remain detained. ASTRA also confirms the release of two employees. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports the chief editor of Telegram channel Baza, Gleb Trifonov, and his colleague were detained in Moscow for bribery and taken to the RF Investigative Committee. This confirms continued crackdowns on media. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ASTRA reports the chief editor of Baza and a colleague are suspected of bribery by the Investigative Committee. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Moscow Drone Facility Attack (New): Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report a car belonging to the head of a company manufacturing drones for occupiers was burned in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Legislation (New): ASTRA, ТАСС, and Север.Реалии report the State Duma adopted a law on fines for searching "extremist" content and transmitting subscriber numbers/login data. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Duma adopted an amendment fining citizens for disclosing state secrets in media. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns reinforces this, stating the Duma approved fines up to 5,000 rubles for searching/viewing extremist materials via VPN, and up to 500,000 rubles for advertising VPN services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the State Duma has adopted amendments related to requirements for owners of audiovisual services and social networks regarding blocking films that lack distribution certificates or discredit Russian spiritual and moral values. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the State Duma has adopted several laws aimed at preventing embezzlement and withdrawal of funds. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the Duma restricted the sale of electronic railway tickets through third-party aggregators that are not carriers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы publishes a photo message stating a draft law for year-round military conscription has been submitted to the State Duma. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Theatre Search (New): TASS reports security forces conducting operations at the Mikhailovsky Theater. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF SVO Spouses Benefits (New): TASS reports the State Duma adopted amendments for benefits for common-law wives of deceased SVO fighters. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Donbas Drought (New): Военкор Котенок shares a photo report on the absence of water in Donbas. Mash на Донбассе provides photo messages of the dried-up Khanzhenkovo reservoir. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Mash на Донбассе posts photos to solicit user-generated content, but the content of the images is not directly relevant to military intelligence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Zaporizhzhia Reconstruction (New): Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes video on continued reconstruction efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Presidential Award (New): Kadyrov_95 reports Putin awarded State Duma Deputy Adam Delimkhanov a Presidential Certificate of Honor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Turkey's Expectation on Negotiations (New): TASS reports Turkey expects dialogue to continue after Istanbul talks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• NABU/SAP Legislation (Updated): РБК-Україна reports controversial draft law No.12414, limiting NABU/SAP powers, has been sent to the president for signature. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes photo messages showing the list of MPs who voted for the bill to limit the independence of NABU and SAP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes a video of a parliamentary session where the bill was voted on. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine provides a photo message and detailed explanation of draft law 12414 concerning NABU and SAP powers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns claim Zelenskyy has signed the law liquidating the independence of anti-corruption bodies, reinforcing the narrative that the legislation has been enacted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO reports the court chose pre-trial detention without bail for Ruslan Magamedrasulov, a head of a NABU detective unit, until September 16. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the EU is concerned about the new law regarding NABU and SAP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Ukrainian lawmakers have approved a law that will strip the country's anti-corruption bodies of independence, which Bloomberg indicates could undermine high-level bribery efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine provides a detailed explanation of draft law 12414 concerning NABU and SAP powers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Lavrov Statement (New): TASS reports Lavrov called "anti-Russian plans" in Europe very alarming. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sumy KAB Launch Confirmation (New): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches on Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Orlivka, Sumy Oblast (New): Colonelcassad claims use of "Harpy" drones to destroy UAF 104th Territorial Defense Brigade positions and vehicles near Orlivka, Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Temirovka, Zaporizhzhia (New): MoD Russia claims Uragan MLRS hit AFU positions near Temirovka, Zaporizhzhia region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF State Duma (New): TASS reports the State Duma has approved the transfer of data regarding migrant children enrollment in schools to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. TASS reports State Duma Deputy Mikhail Tarasenko (United Russia) has died from illness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Игорь Артамонов also reports the death of Mikhail Vasilyevich Tarasenko, State Duma Deputy from Lipetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes video showing a formal session, identified by a watermark as '@vv_volodin', discussing "labor migrants." This appears to be a State Duma session. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Tucker Carlson Interview (New): Басурин о главном shares a video clip of Tucker Carlson claiming Russia has "won" the confrontation with the West in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Offensive Pace (New): Сливочный каприз shares a chart titled "Pace of offensive operations of the Russian Armed Forces in the NWO zone. Advancement of the Russian Armed Forces, km² per day" showing an increased pace for 2024-2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Military Supply (New): Colonelcassad publishes video showing a large quantity of new dirt bikes/motorcycles, likely for military use. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad shows two civilian Lada Niva vehicles being prepared for service on the front line, indicating continued reliance on civilian vehicle support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kupyansk Civilian Casualty (New): STERNENKO reports a gas worker killed by Russians in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Population Decline (New): TASS reports the global population will begin to decline from the 2040s, a challenge for the world economy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS publishes a photo message stating China's population may significantly decrease to 500-700 million by the end of the century due to a halved birth rate, as stated by Oreshkin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Public Wi-Fi (New): TASS reports the State Duma proposed a program for public Wi-Fi access points across Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Omsk Scam (New): TASS reports a scam in Omsk where 2.9 million rubles were stolen from an 18-year-old under the guise of flower delivery, with part of the money allegedly sent to aid Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sochi Detainee (New): ASTRA reports a Sochi resident arrested for "discrediting" the RF army was transferred to a psychiatric hospital after an alleged suicide attempt. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sumy Drone Attack (New): RBC-Ukraine reports RF attacked Sumy with drones in daylight, damaging a medical facility and playground. A woman and a child were injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a video showing a street scene in Sumy, with a Ukrainian flag overlay and Sumy regional emblem, with dialogue in Russian, likely for propaganda purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO reports a woman was killed in Sumy due to a drone attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia launched another strike on Sumy Oblast, resulting in power outages for some consumers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing emergency responders aiding injured individuals, including a child, in a damaged residential building in Sumy following an RF attack, confirming 1 fatality and 10 injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ASTRA reports a woman died and others were injured due to a massive Russian UAV strike in Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Polish Call to Leave RF (New): Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны report Poland is calling its citizens to leave Russia. Военкор Котенок also reports Poland warning its citizens to leave RF territory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes a photo message stating Poland is urging its citizens to leave Russia by all possible means. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: РБК-Україна reports Poland has urged its citizens to leave Russia due to rising tensions, warning of potential conscription. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF Omega Special Forces Strike (New): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes drone video showing a munition drop impacting a group of five Russian occupiers in tall grass, resulting in at least one fatality and multiple serious injuries, attributed to the 1st Separate Special Purpose Detachment of the Omega CSP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Lancet Strike on Dana SPG (New): Воин DV publishes drone video claiming the 305th Artillery Brigade used a Lancet loitering munition to strike a UAF Dana self-propelled howitzer, followed by additional fire from a "Hyacinth" artillery system. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kharkiv Oblast, Izium Shahed Strike (New): Colonelcassad publishes video showing residents of Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, visually monitoring a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike on a Ukrainian "occupation formation" object on July 22, 2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes video claiming a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike on a target in Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, with thick smoke billowing from a partially destroyed building, confirming continued RF kinetic activity in the area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Police Case (New): TASS reports investigators opened a criminal case against an internet channel administrator for extortion and public justification of terrorism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the chief editor of the Ryazan online publication "Svoy Kolokolny" (Svoy kolokolnya) Komarov was detained in an extortion case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports a local resident was detained in Veliky Novgorod for planning to join the "Russian Volunteer Corps", a Ukrainian organization banned in Russia. The video shows what appears to be an interrogation, suggesting intelligence/security operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора publishes video claiming a "PLO-OPG" (presumably criminal group) was exposed in Blagoveshchensk, involved in harassing locals, indicating internal law enforcement activity against domestic criminal elements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Dnipropetrovsk Medical Forum (New): 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes multiple photo messages from a forum titled "Medical Front: experience, challenges, future" held in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes photo messages regarding the professional holiday for miners and metallurgists, and rewarding them for their work and assistance in supporting defense capabilities. This highlights civilian contribution to the war effort. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• International Police Operation (New): Оперативний ЗСУ publishes photo messages about an international police special operation that identified a "pseudominer" of facilities in Czechia, Slovakia, and Latvia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF Anti-Personnel Mine Production (New): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a video message about strengthening the front in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including President Zelenskyy's decision on Ukraine's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention (anti-personnel mines), stating daily production and delivery of 1,000-1,000 mine components, demonstrating UAF's adaptive and proactive defensive posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• FPV Storm from Slobozhansky Paratroopers (New): Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes a video showing an FPV drone attack on a military target, attributed to Slobozhansky paratroopers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Citizen Dissident Detention (New): Север.Реалии publishes a video showing a protest in Moscow, with an activist being detained for criticizing censorship and the war. This demonstrates RF's adaptive measures for internal suppression of dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF Reconnaissance UAV Engagements (New): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. Means for their destruction have been engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Nova Kakhovka Civilian Casualties (New): WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Black Sea Gas Facilities Attack (New): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Beer Production (New): TASS publishes a photo message claiming Russia has displaced Germany from the top five largest beer producers in the world. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Law Enforcement Detention (New): Север.Реалии reports that detentions related to the case of leaking official information occurred in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Krasnodar Krai, and Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Air Force Military Aircraft (New): "Два майора" publishes a video showing a military aircraft, likely a fighter jet, in flight during low-light conditions, with apparent explosion or impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Azerbaijan Claims (New): Оперативний ЗСУ reports Azerbaijan has submitted evidence to Russia of torture and murder of two Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Affairs Legislation (New): TASS reports the State Duma has adopted a law to refuse distribution certificates for films that lack distribution certificates or discredit Russian spiritual and moral values. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukraine Internal Affairs (New): Стрелков Игорь Иванович reports Ukrainian authorities have mandated UOC to declare a break with ROC by August 18, or face prohibition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• EU Frozen Assets Discussion (New): РБК-Україна reports the EU wants to informally discuss the fate of frozen Russian assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• China Asset Masking (New): Рыбарь publishes photo messages claiming China is masking US assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia (New): TASS reports mass events have been suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats of assassination attempts on servicemen by Ukrainian special services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Volgograd Oblast (New): Два майора reports a Telegram channel author in Volgograd was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Steven Seagal (New): TASS reports actor Steven Seagal has left one of his last projects in Russia, indicating a possible decline in his public role within Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kaluga Oblast (New): Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on a crime involving migrant children in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kharkiv Oblast Weather (New): Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports significant weather deterioration is possible in the near future. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, publishes photo messages about strengthening partnership with the French Republic, with images of officials examining a model, suggesting diplomatic efforts to secure aid or cooperation for reconstruction/development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF Zelenskyy Video (New): Zelenskiy / Official posts a video of President Zelenskyy interacting with military personnel and civilians, presenting awards, reinforcing national unity and recognition of heroes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also publishes the same video from President Zelenskyy, further emphasizing the message of Ukrainian heroes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Military Helicopter (New): Fighterbomber publishes video showing a military helicopter flying low over a field, likely conducting reconnaissance or attack operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Civilian Engineering Equipment (New): Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition calls for help with civilian engineering equipment at the front, indicating a logistical gap. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade (New): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video of 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade using FPV drones to destroy two pieces of RF mechanized equipment during an attempted assault, confirming successful engagement against armored targets.(CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Trump on Ukraine/NATO (New): TASS reports Trump, by rejecting Ukraine's NATO membership, swayed it towards negotiations with Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF New Anti-Drone System (New): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a photo message showcasing a new anti-drone system from Rostec, capable of localized signal suppression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Business Scrutiny for Financing Ukraine (New): Басурин о главном publishes a photo message of a formal letter from Russian State Duma Deputy Andrei Gurulev requesting the head of the Investigative Committee to investigate perfume company Zielinski & Rozen for potential involvement in financing the AFU. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Affairs (Updated): Операция Z reports that Ukrainian MP Skorokhod admitted that TCC "beat mobilized people to death" across Ukraine. This is an RF information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Security (Updated): Colonelcassad reports a local resident was detained in Veliky Novgorod for planning to join the "Russian Volunteer Corps", a Ukrainian organization banned in Russia. The video shows what appears to be an interrogation, suggesting intelligence/security operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Moscow Internal Flooding (Updated): Новости Москвы posts a video showing water puddles and cleaning operations inside a public building, suggesting a spill or leak. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы posts a video showing heavy rain and flooded streets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ТАСС publishes videos showing flooded metro tracks at "Bagrationovskaya" and "Kuntsevskaya" stations due to heavy rain, causing service disruptions. Another video shows a flooded train station/underpass. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ publishes multiple videos showing severe urban flooding in Moscow, with vehicles navigating deep water and commercial establishments affected. This indicates significant weather impacts on civilian infrastructure in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Draft Law on Year-Round Conscription (New): МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a draft law for year-round conscription has been submitted to the State Duma. This indicates a significant shift in RF conscription policy aimed at continuous military replenishment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы publishes a photo message stating a draft law for year-round military conscription has been submitted to the State Duma. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Dnipropetrovsk Defense Council Meeting (New): 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes photos from a meeting of the Defense Council in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, attended by military leadership, law enforcement, and emergency services. The caption states "Security issues were traditionally brought to the Defense Council. Military leadership, representatives of the law enforcement bloc, and emergency services joined." This indicates ongoing strategic planning and coordination at the regional level to address security threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Argentina Colgate Ban (New): TASS reports Argentina has banned Colgate Total Clean Mint toothpaste due to adverse reactions. This is a non-military, civilian-focused news item. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukraine Anti-Corruption Debate (New): ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 publishes a photo with the caption "🤔 Attack on anti-corruption activities or 'good intentions'?", likely referring to the recent legislation concerning NABU/SAP. This indicates ongoing public debate and scrutiny within Ukraine regarding the independence of anti-corruption bodies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kirovohrad Oblast Strike (New): Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) claims a powerful strike on a UAF training ground in Kirovohrad Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kherson Boat Destruction (New): Военкор Котенок claims destruction of a Ukrainian boat with personnel in Kherson direction using a fiber-optic FPV drone, indicating continued RF FPV operations against UAF small craft. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Nikopol District Attacks (New): 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports over two dozen attacks in Nikopol district throughout the day, using artillery and FPV drones, targeting the district center and other communities. This confirms continued RF kinetic pressure in the region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• DPR Milbloggers Aid Request (New): Народная милиция ДНР publishes photo messages for a fundraising drive for three units actively fighting on the ground in the Sumy direction, indicating continued reliance on volunteer aid for frontline forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Recognition of Pro-War Artist (New): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video showing film director Igor Bogomolov, husband of Ksenia Sobchak, calling the war with Ukraine "the luck and happiness of our generation," and noting Putin awarded him the title "Honored Artist of Russia" the next day. This indicates state recognition of pro-war cultural figures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Police Activity (New): Два майора publishes video claiming a "PLO-OPG" (presumably criminal group) was exposed in Blagoveshchensk, involved in harassing locals. The video shows OMON officers escorting detainees into a building, which has a sign indicating it is a migration department office, suggesting a law enforcement operation targeting individuals involved in migration-related violations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Novgorod Oblast Minister Arrest (New): TASS reports the arrest of Konstantin Kuranov, Minister of Transport and Road Management for Novgorod Oblast, on bribery charges. ASTRA provides photo confirmation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• US Diplomatic Engagements (New): TASS reports Trump stated he would likely visit China in the near future and did not exclude talks with Putin during this visit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• US Internal Politics (New): TASS reports Trump called on the US Department of Justice to investigate Obama for manipulating intelligence data related to US elections and Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Vessel Destruction Confirmed (New): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes video of a naval vessel, engulfed in flames and smoke, likely after a successful UAF attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Expert Analysis of RF Offensive (New): РБК-Україна publishes a video featuring an expert discussing the map of possible Russian offensives, highlighting RF's historical reliance on railways for troop movement and the difficulty in predicting exact offensive timings. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF FPV Drone Success (New): TASS publishes video showing FPV drone operators from "Rubikon" center striking AFU armored vehicles and personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.5. Key Terrain Changes since Previous Report (221641Z JUL 25)

• Avdiivka Axis: No specific updates within the new messages for direct battlefield geometry changes at Avdiivka, though the previous daily report (230600Z OCT 23) highlighted a tactical breakthrough and exploitation. The new intelligence XML focuses on other sectors and high-level political/social issues.
• Kherson Direction: Increased kinetic activity indicated by the "Два майора" video showing drone operations and possible impact over water, and "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video of a burning naval vessel, suggesting successful UAF maritime engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Pokrovsk (Donetsk Oblast): Continued intense battles and claims of Russian infantry presence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Belaya Gora (Donetsk Oblast): "Сливочный каприз" video with Russian flag indicates likely RF advances and potential occupation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sumy Oblast: Continued KAB launches and drone attacks on civilian areas (e.g., Sumy city), with confirmed fatalities and injuries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kirovohrad Oblast: Claims of powerful RF strike on a UAF training ground. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Nikopol District (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Sustained RF artillery and FPV drone attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Krasnoarmeysk Direction: Воин DV reports RF forces active in Krasnoarmeysk direction, claiming to disable Starlink communications for 25th Airborne Brigade. This indicates continued RF pressure and attempts to disrupt UAF C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kamyansk (Donetsk Oblast): Оперативний ЗСУ reports UAF withdrawal to flanks and holding Kamyansk under fire control, indicating a tactical repositioning that may signify a partial tactical setback. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Strategic Drone/Missile/Aviation Munitions Strikes (Sustained, Adaptive, CRITICAL VOLUME & DEPTH, Now Multi-Warhead, WIDE GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE, Hypersonic Threat Resurfaced, Enhanced Saturation, FAB Use, NEW KINZHAL ON KYIV, Continued KAB use, Confirmed KAB on Kramatorsk, "Harpies" and Krasnoarmeysk UAV C2 targeting, Confirmed "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk/Izium, Orlivka strike by "Harpy" drones, Uragan MLRS strike on Temirovka, Civilian Casualties in Nova Kakhovka, Gas Facilities Attack, Repeated KAB launches in Donetsk/Kharkiv/Sumy, Strike on Kirovohrad Training Ground, Nikopol District Attacks, Rubikon FPV Drone Strikes): RF continues to demonstrate an extremely high capability for widespread, high-volume, multi-vector aerial attacks. The confirmed use of Tu-95MS strategic bombers for cruise missile launches (24 missiles), alongside continued massed Shahed drone attacks (426 total), and the re-engagement of MiG-31K for Kinzhal ballistic missile use indicates a sustained and robust deep strike capability. Their ability to simultaneously target Northern, Eastern, Central, and significantly Western Ukraine demonstrates coordination and resource availability. The confirmed use of X-101 with cluster munition warheads in Chernivtsi represents an escalation in lethality. The claimed use of FABs on UAF reserves in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates continued air-to-ground precision strike capability. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, confirming the capability to use hypersonic missiles against the capital. Colonelcassad also claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv. MoD Russia video shows Kub loitering munitions, detailing capabilities and warhead size. RF has adapted to use KABs against Sumy, Dobropillia and Kramatorsk. Continued use of strike UAVs against Eastern Dnipropetrovsk (Samarivskyi district), Poltava Oblast, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. The confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa indicates RF willingness to hit urban centers without specific military targets, or a failure of precision targeting. Ballistic missile threat confirmed for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and now Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi district). Kotsnews reporting on "Harpies" and their kinetic effect on a village, indicating a new, potent loitering munition or PGMs. MoD Russia also claims destruction of a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad's claim of "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk and associated smoke plume indicates continued widespread use of Shaheds against various targets. Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. Старше Эдды publishes drone video showing an FPV drone strike on a building, followed by a fire, and the Ukrainian flag on a damaged structure. Colonelcassad's video confirming "Harpy" drone use in Orlivka, Sumy Oblast. MoD Russia's video confirms Uragan MLRS use. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS firing rockets. WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a large explosion and secondary explosions in a semi-urban/rural area, characteristic of a missile strike or heavy artillery impact, demonstrating RF kinetic capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tactical Drone Capabilities (Enhanced, Counter-Drone, FPV Precision, Fiber-Optic Drones, Robotic Ground Vehicles): The reported destruction of a UAF D-20 howitzer in Kherson by an RF FPV drone ("Tuman") demonstrates RF's continued and effective tactical integration of drones for precision engagements against UAF artillery assets. The new focus on Rostov Oblast becoming a leader in UAV development, with military tech transfer to civilian applications and expanded production, highlights RF's strategic intent to massively scale its drone capabilities and industrial base. The FPV drone strike on a UAF soldier in Sumy direction and two injured in Belgorod by FPV drone further demonstrates precision targeting capabilities. MoD Russia's video of "Feniks" drone in action further confirms active development and deployment of tactical drones for reconnaissance and kinetic effects. Colonelcassad's claim of destroying a UAF UAV command post near Chasiv Yar indicates continued RF counter-drone capabilities. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights counter-drone capabilities. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's drone footage from Chasiv Yar direction indicates continued tactical drone operations. Воин DV's video claiming destruction of armored vehicles and personnel in Alexandrovgrad by 14th Guards Spetsnaz and 5th Guards Tank Brigade further emphasizes RF's advanced tactical drone integration for kinetic effects. Narodnaya милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles near Dachne, potentially with drones. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports the downing of a heavy "Baba Yaga" drone in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Nova Kakhovka drone strike, as per WarGonzo, shows RF drone strike capabilities against ground targets. Colonelcassad's video on "Harpy" drones confirms their tactical deployment for strikes on personnel and vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Воин DV publishes drone video claiming the 305th Artillery Brigade using a Lancet loitering munition to strike a UAF Dana self-propelled howitzer, followed by additional fire from a "Hyacinth" artillery system. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a photo message showcasing a new anti-drone system from Rostec, capable of localized signal suppression, indicating advanced counter-drone R&D. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Военкор Котенок claims destruction of a Ukrainian boat with personnel in Kherson direction using a fiber-optic FPV drone, indicating the use of advanced FPV drones with potential for extended range/persistence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS publishes video showing FPV drone operators from "Rubikon" center striking AFU armored vehicles and personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Басурин о главном publishes a video showcasing the 'Omich' (Омич) robotic complex, highlighting RF's continued focus on robotic ground vehicles for logistics and support, which can reduce personnel risk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare (Aggressive, Psychological, and Exploitative, Adaptive, Expanding Scope, Exploiting Internal Ukrainian Issues, Targeting Foreign Policy Debates, Leveraging US Politics): RF continues to use its military actions to bolster its narrative. Messaging from milbloggers directly aims to terrorize the population and undermine Ukrainian morale, while simultaneously attempting to project overwhelming force and futility of Ukrainian resistance. Dissemination of claimed UAF equipment losses (e.g., Bradley BMP) and drone losses ("Baba Yaga" drones), including the destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit in South-Donetsk direction and a D-20 howitzer in Kherson, and a UAF UAV command post, and AFU armored vehicles near Dachne, further reinforce this narrative. RF state media leverages UAF drone attacks on Russian territory to portray Russia as a victim and justify its actions. RF sources promote narratives of internal corruption and social friction within Ukraine (now specifically claiming NABU loses Western "roof" due to Trump, and Zelenskyy signed law liquidating anti-corruption bodies). Propaganda focuses on internal RF stability and development. Continued use of historical revisionism. Claims of ground advances (Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Malaya Tokmachka, Starytsia, Varachino, Hrushevske, Novotoretske, Krasnoarmeysk infiltration) and effective DRG ambushes in contested areas (Pokrovsk, Krasnoarmeysk) are heavily publicized. RF milbloggers employ cynical/mocking language to demoralize Ukrainian audiences. RF attempts to exploit perceived US weakness in drone tactics. Internal RF information operations counter perceived "traitors." RF channels publish content projecting public support. TASS actively uses claimed UAF POW statements to portray desertion and low morale within Ukrainian ranks. RF is attempting to leverage historical monuments in Moldova to portray Ukraine as allied with Nazis. TASS is attempting to influence US political discourse by amplifying statements like Jeffrey Sachs' comments on Trump and Ukraine. TASS is now actively promoting civilian news, such as Russia's representation at an international music contest, likely to normalize the information environment and divert attention from military operations. The publication of a POW interrogation video by TASS (Yevgeny Popelyshkin) indicates RF's continued and adaptable capability to exploit captured personnel for psychological operations, aiming to sow discord and undermine UAF command effectiveness. RF will continue to leverage civilian testimonials, as seen from Kursk Oblast and Mash on Donbas, and now Andriivka, to portray itself as a victim of Ukrainian aggression and to justify its military actions to its domestic audience. RF is increasingly using cultural and religious narratives to foster internal unity and traditional values, as seen with promotion of Orthodox Christian traditions and news about spiritual-moral culture in schools. TASS claims average of 400 UAF strikes on RF civilian objects per day. The new reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia is likely to be leveraged by RF to show continued European reliance and economic influence. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed to project stability and resilience despite high-level losses. RF milbloggers will likely continue to question the effectiveness of Western AD (e.g., Patriot against Kinzhal). Alex Parker Returns' military recruitment videos demonstrate continued information operations to attract personnel. TASS reporting on detentions for monument desecration in Crimea is part of this narrative. TASS reporting on the appeal of a billionaire in a bribery case also frames the internal legal system as functioning. The FSB's claims of thwarting Ukrainian special services are intended to project internal security effectiveness. The detention of a former presidential candidate's staff member highlights RF's control over its political information space. The new criminal cases against a former Deputy Minister of Defense demonstrate the state's willingness to publicize internal corruption issues. News from Moscow criticizing EU "brain drain" highlights economic information operations. TASS reports on the US Congress cancelling meetings over the Epstein case, a clear amplification of internal US political issues to highlight disarray. The cynical framing of the Polish General's death by RF milbloggers also shows continued aggressive information warfare. RF MFA statements reflect continued adaptive diplomatic narratives. FSB detentions and subsequent propaganda videos demonstrate rapid adaptation for internal security and counter-intelligence messaging. Raids on "Baza" publication further highlight suppression of independent media and control over information flow, confirmed by the arrest of the editor-in-chief. TASS also provides video showing the situation at the Baza office. TASS reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 indicates continued RF narrative exploitation of personal tragedies to question the conflict. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF uses civilians as human shields. Colonelcassad uses derogatory term "Narkofyurer" (Narcodictator) for Zelenskyy. TASS reports Peskov's statements on Istanbul negotiations control the narrative. TASS also reports Trump plans to withdraw the US from UNESCO due to its "anti-American vector." TASS reports on Milan Mayor Sala's corruption suspicions. TASS reports Gazmanov's call for artists to support SMO fighters for moral support. TASS reports the ban on child toy sales in Kandahar, Afghanistan. WarGonzo reports on the Russia-China-Iran nuclear meeting. Басурин о главном publishes video "Catching traitors and enemies of Russia," showing arrests and interrogations related to terrorist acts. Басурин о главном leveraging Tucker Carlson's statement is a new adaptive information tactic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports three injured in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF strike, which will be leveraged to emphasize RF victimhood. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, reinforcing the narrative of external threats and justifying internal security measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора reports the author of a Volgograd Telegram channel was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism, reinforcing the narrative of combating internal extremism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on migrant crime in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend" to stir social unrest and criticize migration policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Trump, by rejecting Ukraine's NATO membership, swayed it towards negotiations with Russia. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception and suggest US/Ukraine disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Басурин о главном highlights a State Duma Deputy's request to investigate a perfume company for potentially funding the AFU, indicating RF's expanding scope of internal information operations to identify and suppress perceived threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z reports that Ukrainian MP Skorokhod admitted that TCC "beat mobilized people to death" across Ukraine, an RF information operation aimed at creating internal Ukrainian disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns posts an image with text that translates to "The puzzle has come together. Inside information.", which likely refers to an internal RF information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video showing film director Igor Bogomolov, husband of Ksenia Sobchak, calling the war with Ukraine "the luck and happiness of our generation," and noting Putin awarded him the title "Honored Artist of Russia" the next day. This signals the use of cultural figures to bolster pro-war sentiment and justify the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: "Два майора" publishes a photo message containing a statement from the former Polish Land Forces Commander Skrzypczak, highlighting his calls to attack Belarus and Kaliningrad, used to vilify foreign military figures and reinforce the narrative of external threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Trump is likely to visit China soon, and did not exclude talks with Putin during this visit. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception of RF's diplomatic standing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Trump called on the US Department of Justice to investigate Obama for manipulating intelligence data related to US elections and Russia. This is a direct attempt to leverage US internal political divisions for RF's information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad states that the newly appointed PM Yulia Svrydenko's claim that corruption is exaggerated in Ukrainian society is a lie, continuing the "Ukrainian corruption" narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Kotsnews publishes a graphic titled "EVENING BELL" with text criticizing Ukrainian authorities. This is a common RF information operation tactic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Artillery Systems (New): Colonelcassad's claim of the use of 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from North Korea indicates a continued and potentially expanding capability to field new or additional artillery systems, potentially supplied by external actors. MoD Russia's video confirms Uragan MLRS use. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS firing rockets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports continued RF use of artillery and FPV drones in Nikopol district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Border Operations: The identified "Anvar" unit operating in Sumy/Chernihiv border regions demonstrates RF's persistent capability for localized reconnaissance and targeting operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Legal Measures & Internal Control: TASS reporting on the in absentia charging of a blogger for promoting terrorism in Dagestan indicates RF's continued capability and willingness to use legal mechanisms to control internal narratives. The Khabarovsk Krai Police reporting on a criminal case indicates continued focus on domestic law and order. The detention of a hacker in Novosibirsk indicates continued focus on cyber security. TASS reports searches at Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko's home, suggesting internal anti-corruption or security operations. "Два майора" discusses sentencing related to illegal migration, indicating internal security focus. The reporting on the death of the Supreme Court Chairman highlights the functioning of the RF legal system. The detentions in Crimea for monument desecration underscore RF's efforts to control historical narratives. The detention of a migrant in Tyumen and the appeal of a billionaire in a bribery case indicate continued application of internal law enforcement. The FSB's claims of thwarting Ukrainian special services are intended to project internal security effectiveness. The detention of a former presidential candidate's staff member highlights RF's control over its political information space. The new criminal cases against a former Deputy Minister of Defense for corruption highlight RF's legal mechanisms for internal accountability. Putin's toughening of rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports indicates increased state control over economic interfaces. RF MFA's expanded list of banned EU officials is another example of diplomatic-legal measures. Raids on "Baza" media outlet, and the subsequent arrest of its editor-in-chief, signify an escalated and adaptive control over internal information flows and suppression of independent media. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. TASS reports that the acceptance of applications for IT deferrals from military service has begun. ASTRA reports a pensioner from Izhevsk was sentenced for treason but released due to health. TASS reports State Duma adopted law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. TASS reports Duma adopted an amendment fining citizens for disclosing state secrets in media. TASS reports no plans to block foreign messengers, but compliance with requirements. TASS reports investigators opened a criminal case against an internet channel administrator for extortion and public justification of terrorism. TASS reports the military court sentenced Lithuanian Bartkevichius to 23 years in absentia for desecrating a military grave and other terror-related crimes in Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, indicating proactive legal measures against perceived threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора reports the author of a Volgograd Telegram channel was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism, demonstrating continued legal enforcement against online content. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the chief editor of the Ryazan online publication "Svoy Kolokolny" (Svoy kolokolnya) Komarov was detained in an extortion case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports a local resident was detained in Veliky Novgorod for planning to join the "Russian Volunteer Corps", a Ukrainian organization banned in Russia. The video shows what appears to be an interrogation, suggesting intelligence/security operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a draft law for year-round conscription has been submitted to the State Duma. This indicates RF is formalizing and potentially expanding its conscription system to sustain personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы publishes a photo message stating a draft law for year-round military conscription has been submitted to the State Duma. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора publishes video claiming a "PLO-OPG" (presumably criminal group) was exposed in Blagoveshchensk, involved in harassing locals, indicating internal law enforcement activity against criminal elements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports the arrest of Konstantin Kuranov, Minister of Transport and Road Management for Novgorod Oblast, on bribery charges. ASTRA provides photo confirmation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad reports the arrest of Konstantin Kuranov, Minister of Transport and Road Management of Novgorod Oblast, for bribery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Counter-UAV Capabilities: The successful repulsion of UAV attacks in Rostov-on-Don, Millerovo, Donetsk (Rostov Oblast), and Azov district, as well as three UAVs over Tula Oblast, indicates RF's continued capability to defend against UAF drone incursions. RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight, including nine over Bryansk Oblast. The FPV drone attack in Belgorod and on Samara Oblast indicates that while RF has AD capabilities, UAF drones can still penetrate and cause damage. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights counter-drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a video showing a military aircraft, likely a fighter jet, in flight during low-light conditions, with apparent explosion or impact. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a photo message showcasing a new anti-drone system from Rostec, capable of localized signal suppression, indicating advanced counter-drone R&D. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Port Operations in Occupied Territories: The continued operation of Mariupol port, even if understaffed, demonstrates RF's capability to restore and utilize critical infrastructure in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Projection: The escort operation by the Steregushchiy-class corvette "Boykiy" demonstrates RF's capability to project naval power and secure logistical routes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • ELINT Capabilities: Colonelcassad's video claiming successful UAF liquidation via radio intercepts indicates RF possesses and utilizes effective Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) capabilities for targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Maneuver Capability (Tactical): TASS video showing an RF APC maneuvering in open terrain indicates continued tactical ground force mobility. Басурин о главном's report of Russian reconnaissance entering Krasnoarmeysk indicates a capability for deep infiltration by special groups. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video confirms Russian reconnaissance and DRG activity in Krasnoarmeysk, with video suggesting an ambush on a UAF vehicle. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle, moving along a road, with one appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) during movement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: "Сливочный каприз" publishes video of a destroyed settlement with a person carrying a Russian flag, captioned "Konstantinovka - Belaya Gora," suggesting RF ground presence and tactical gains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Басурин о главном publishes video claiming "underground forces" are burning UAF SUVs from Kramatorsk to Kyiv, with footage of a UAF SUV burning after an attack, indicating alleged deep rear operations by pro-RF elements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Long-Term Military Budgeting: Budanov's report on Russia's plan to spend $1.1 trillion USD on rearmament by 2036 indicates a long-term, significant commitment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Hydropower (Occupied Territories): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Военкор Котенок reports "Naftogaz" states that an important gas production facility was attacked last night with "dozens of drones." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:
  • Geographic Expansion into Western Ukraine, Multi-Platform Coordination & Diversionary Tactics (CRITICAL - Including Hypersonic Missile & Cluster Munitions, New FAB Use, NEW KINZHAL ON KYIV, Continued KAB use, Confirmed KAB on Kramatorsk, "Harpies" and Krasnoarmeysk UAV C2 targeting, Confirmed "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk/Izium, Orlivka strike by "Harpy" drones, Uragan MLRS strike on Temirovka, Civilian Casualties in Nova Kakhovka, Gas Facilities Attack, Repeated KAB launches in Donetsk/Kharkiv/Sumy, Strike on Kirovohrad Training Ground, Nikopol District Attacks): Expansion of strategic missile strikes deep into Western Ukraine concurrently with Shahed waves, and re-engagement of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles from MiG-31K targeting deep Western Ukraine and now Kyiv, indicates continued and enhanced adaptation of multi-platform, coordinated deep strikes. Confirmed use of X-101 with cluster munition warheads in Chernivtsi is a critical tactical adaptation. Claimed use of FABs on UAF reserves in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast suggests expansion of precision aviation strikes into central Ukraine. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025. Colonelcassad's claim of a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv confirms tactical adaptation to target UAF domestic defense production. RF has adapted to use KABs against Sumy, Dobropillia and Kramatorsk. Continued use of strike UAVs against Eastern Dnipropetrovsk (Samarivskyi district), Poltava Oblast, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. Kotsnews reporting on "Harpies" indicates adaptation to new PGM/loitering munitions. MoD Russia's claim of destroying a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad's claim of "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk and associated smoke plume indicates continued adaptable use of Shaheds. Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. Старше Эдды publishes drone video showing an FPV drone strike on a building, followed by a fire, and the Ukrainian flag on a damaged structure. Colonelcassad's video confirming "Harpy" drone use in Orlivka, Sumy Oblast, indicates an adaptive deployment of new drone types for localized strikes. MoD Russia's video shows continued use of MLRS. WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports RF attacked Sumy with drones in daylight, damaging a medical facility and playground. This indicates an adaptive change to daylight drone attacks on civilian areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts, confirming continued and adaptive use of guided bombs against these regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes video showing residents of Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, visually monitoring a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike on a Ukrainian "occupation formation" object. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) claims a powerful strike on a UAF training ground in Kirovohrad Oblast, indicating adaptive targeting of UAF training infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports continued RF use of artillery and FPV drones in Nikopol district, confirming adaptive mixed kinetic attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS publishes video showing FPV drone operators from "Rubikon" center striking AFU armored vehicles and personnel. This highlights continued RF kinetic adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV reports RF forces active in Krasnoarmeysk direction, claiming to disable Starlink communications for 25th Airborne Brigade. This indicates a new tactical adaptation to disrupt UAF communications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a large explosion and secondary explosions in a semi-urban/rural area, characteristic of a missile strike or heavy artillery impact, demonstrating adaptive kinetic capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Increased Shahed Volume on Kyiv, Southern Ukraine, and now Kharkiv: Increase in Shahed UAVs targeting Kyiv, emergence of new Shahed groups in Black Sea towards Southern Ukraine, and new groups towards Kharkiv indicates intent to increase saturation. New Shahed threat for Dnipropetrovsk indicates continued spread of drone activity. Alex Parker Returns explicitly states intent to use "Geraniums" (Shaheds) on the frontline due to increased production. Further Shahed activity now reported heading towards Pavlohrad from Zaporizhzhia Oblast and new groups inbound to Mykolaiv and Odesa. The confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa highlights continued adaptive targeting. Сили оборони Півдня України reports continued Shahed use in the Southern direction. RF milblogger blaming UAF AD for civilian damage in Odesa is a new adaptive information tactic. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). NEW: Air Force reports a likely reconnaissance UAV heading north towards Sumy city, indicating adaptive reconnaissance efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ballistic Missile Re-engagement on Kyiv and Hypersonic Missile on Western Ukraine and NOW Kyiv: Re-engagement of ballistic missiles on Kyiv and use of Kinzhal hypersonic missile on Ivano-Frankivsk and now Kyiv indicates escalation in munitions. Latest ballistic missile threat for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates continued targeting. NEW: Ballistic missile threat for Kyiv declared from Northeast (now lifted). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports high-speed target from Kursk Oblast heading southwest in Sumy Oblast. Ballistic missile threat lifted for all areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Operations (Exploitative & Adaptive, Internal Focus, Expanding to US Internal Politics, Information Control Escalation, Targeting Cultural Figures, Leveraging US Politics): RF adapted its information operations to exploit UAF deep strikes on Moscow, using lifting of airport restrictions as propaganda, while intensifying demoralizing rhetoric. RF state media disseminating video of claimed ground operations and drone intercept claims. RF milbloggers adapting to exploit non-military events for propaganda. RF is adapting its internal propaganda to address perceived issues and maintain support, including through cultural events and promoting civilian services. RF is highlighting US statements on Iran to justify its own geopolitical positioning. Introduction of civilian normalization narratives (music contest, sports/playground development, teacher compensation, airport normalization, funeral of Yuri Kara, Chechen festival, new Moskvich car sales, airport recreation zones, 4-day work week benefits, 4-day work week proven beneficial, IT deferrals, Supreme Court memorial, Yuri Kara funeral, domestic banana saplings) to divert attention. The rapid dissemination of the captured UAF soldier's statement by TASS demonstrates RF's immediate adaptation of new opportunities for psychological warfare. The deployment of civilian testimonials about alleged UAF shelling in border regions and now from conflict-affected Donbas (Mash on Donbas) and Andriivka is a new adaptation for RF information operations. RF is increasingly using cultural and religious narratives to foster internal unity and support for its operations. TASS claims average of 400 UAF strikes on RF civilian objects per day. The new reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia is likely to be leveraged by RF. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed as a natural occurrence, with emphasis on continuity. RF milbloggers actively questioning the effectiveness of Western AD (e.g., Patriot against Kinzhal). Alex Parker Returns' military recruitment videos demonstrate continued information operations to attract personnel. TASS reporting on detentions for monument desecration in Crimea is part of this narrative. TASS reporting on the appeal of a billionaire in a bribery case also frames the internal legal system as functioning. The FSB's claims of thwarting Ukrainian special services are intended to project internal security effectiveness. The detention of a former presidential candidate's staff member highlights RF's control over its political information space. The new criminal cases against a former Deputy Minister of Defense for corruption highlight RF's legal mechanisms for internal accountability. News from Moscow criticizing EU "brain drain" highlights economic information operations. TASS reports on the US Congress Epstein case (internal US political issue) and the death of Polish General Skrzypczak (cynically framed) demonstrating an adaptive ability to leverage disparate events for propaganda. RF MFA statements reflect continued adaptive diplomatic narratives. FSB detentions and subsequent propaganda videos demonstrate rapid adaptation for internal security and counter-intelligence messaging. Raids on "Baza" media outlet, and the subsequent arrest of its editor-in-chief, signify an escalated and adaptive control over internal information flows and suppression of independent media. TASS also provides video showing the situation at the Baza office. TASS reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 indicates continued RF narrative exploitation of personal tragedies to question the conflict. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF uses civilians as human shields. Colonelcassad uses derogatory term "Narkofyurer" (Narcodictator) for Zelenskyy. TASS reports Peskov's statements on Istanbul negotiations control the narrative. TASS also reports Trump plans to withdraw the US from UNESCO. TASS reports on Milan Mayor Sala's corruption suspicions. TASS reports Gazmanov's call for artists to support SMO fighters for moral support. TASS reports the ban on child toy sales in Kandahar, Afghanistan. WarGonzo reports on the Russia-China-Iran nuclear meeting. Басурин о главном publishes video "Catching traitors and enemies of Russia." Басурин о главном leveraging Tucker Carlson's statement is a new adaptive information tactic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports three injured in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF strike, which will be leveraged to emphasize RF victimhood. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, reinforcing the narrative of external threats and justifying internal security measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора reports detention of a Telegram channel author in Volgograd for extortion and public justification of Nazism, reinforcing the narrative of combating internal extremism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on migrant crime in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend" to stir social unrest and criticize migration policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Trump, by rejecting Ukraine's NATO membership, swayed it towards negotiations with Russia. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception and suggest US/Ukraine disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Басурин о главном highlights a State Duma Deputy's request to investigate a perfume company for potentially funding the AFU, indicating RF's adaptive expansion of internal scrutiny. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z reports that Ukrainian MP Skorokhod admitted that TCC "beat mobilized people to death" across Ukraine, an RF information operation aimed at creating internal Ukrainian disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns posts an image with text that translates to "The puzzle has come together. Inside information.", which likely refers to an internal RF information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video showing film director Igor Bogomolov, husband of Ksenia Sobchak, calling the war with Ukraine "the luck and happiness of our generation," and noting Putin awarded him the title "Honored Artist of Russia" the next day. This signals the use of cultural figures to bolster pro-war sentiment and justify the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: "Два майора" publishes a photo message containing a statement from the former Polish Land Forces Commander Skrzypczak, highlighting his calls to attack Belarus and Kaliningrad, used to vilify foreign military figures and reinforce the narrative of external threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Trump is likely to visit China soon, and did not exclude talks with Putin during this visit. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception of RF's diplomatic standing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Trump called on the US Department of Justice to investigate Obama for manipulating intelligence data related to US elections and Russia. This is a direct attempt to leverage US internal political divisions for RF's information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad states that the newly appointed PM Yulia Svrydenko's claim that corruption is exaggerated in Ukrainian society is a lie, continuing the "Ukrainian corruption" narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo message with the caption "425. Думайте," likely a propaganda message. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Kotsnews publishes a graphic titled "EVENING BELL" with text criticizing Ukrainian authorities. This is a common RF information operation tactic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "Disunity within Ukraine" Narrative: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" attempts to project internal disunity. Alex Parker Returns posts video related to TCC and Romani people, and is now actively promoting a narrative about UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky having his parents treated in Moscow. RF claims Ukraine has run out of cemetery space. The dissemination of footage showing a violent TCC detention in Chernih by Colonelcassad indicates RF's continued and immediate adaptation to exploit internal Ukrainian social tensions. TASS's unverified claim of a UK-trained UAF unit being destroyed in Dnipropetrovsk is another example. Операция Z's claim about NABU losing Western "roof" due to Trump is a direct adaptive disinformation campaign. TASS report claiming Latin American mercenaries fled Alexandrovgrad is an adaptive narrative. TASS reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. Операция Z's information operation about "traitors-Nazis from Russia" being handed over by Kyiv and committing suicide aims to manage internal personnel issues. NEW: Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны report Western publications are again talking about Zelenskyy's authoritarianism after the curtailment of NABU powers, explicitly linking it to Western concerns. NEW: Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns claim Zelenskyy has signed the law liquidating the independence of anti-corruption bodies, reinforcing the narrative that the legislation has been enacted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z reports that Ukrainian MP Skorokhod admitted that TCC "beat mobilized people to death" across Ukraine, an RF information operation aimed at creating internal Ukrainian disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 publishes a photo with the caption "🤔 Attack on anti-corruption activities or 'good intentions'?", framing the debate around anti-corruption as a potential attack on it, which feeds into the disunity narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad states that the newly appointed PM Yulia Svrydenko's claim that corruption is exaggerated in Ukrainian society is a lie, continuing the "Ukrainian corruption" narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "RF Stability and Development" Narrative (Internal): Mishustin's statements on airport modernization and border crossing point repairs aim to project an image of internal stability. News about fining crypto payments in 2026 attempts to project long-term economic planning. TASS reports FIDE allowing Russian women's chess team to compete. Kadyrov_95 [Video message] documents a religious event in Chechnya. ASTRA reports that Sheremetyevo Airport has labeled as "fakes" videos showing crowds of passengers. Colonelcassad reports for the first time in a long time, he used a Russian Railways train. TASS is promoting ease of entry for foreigners into RF. The lifting of flight restrictions at Samara airport and Kaluga airport is a further example of RF's adaptive strategy to normalize internal conditions. The reporting on Mariupol port operations is another attempt to normalize the situation in occupied territories. RF internal reporting on criminal cases, economic meetings, and internal security operations also serve to project a focus on stability and governance. RF milbloggers' sharing of Orthodox Christian traditions also works to foster internal unity. Rostov Oblast's focus on UAV development signals innovation. RF MoD proposed salary increase for military personnel aims to project positive conditions. The reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia will be framed internally by RF. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed as a natural occurrence, with emphasis on continuity. News about Moscow's urban development reinforces the normalcy narrative. Putin's toughening of foreign vessel access is presented as a measure for national security. TASS reports on RF AI development. Север.Реалии reports on "Spiritual-Moral Culture" in schools. The recovery of Winelab stores from a cyberattack is used to project resilience. The funeral of Yuri Kara and the Chechen cultural festival are used for normalization. TASS reports the new Moskvich-8 car is on sale for 2.98 million rubles. TASS reports the Sheremetyevo airport is organizing recreation zones for passengers. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. Новости Москвы reports scientists have proven a four-day work week without salary reduction improves employee well-being. TASS reports the State Duma has approved the transfer of data regarding migrant children enrollment in schools to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, framing this as a measure of control and order. TASS reporting on the death of a State Duma Deputy from illness is a part of this internal political framing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports actor Steven Seagal has left one of his last projects in Russia, which could be framed as a natural internal business decision. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы publishes a review of a Huawei MatePad Pro, indicating internal focus on technology and consumer goods. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Глеб Никитин posts positive news about historical real estate sales, aiming to project internal stability and economic activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad reports that the head of RF Digital Development Ministry, Maksut Shadayev, states Russia has fully deployed 5G networks in 45 regions. This promotes a narrative of technological advancement and stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы posts a video showing water puddles and cleaning operations inside a public building, suggesting a spill or leak. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы posts a video showing heavy rain and flooded streets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a video that is an advertisement for online gambling, which could be seen as a source of revenue or distraction in the domestic context. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video showing film director Igor Bogomolov, husband of Ksenia Sobchak, calling the war with Ukraine "the luck and happiness of our generation," and noting Putin awarded him the title "Honored Artist of Russia" the next day. This signals the use of cultural figures to bolster pro-war sentiment and justify the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports 517 flights were canceled at Moscow and St. Petersburg airports between July 19-22, affecting 75,000 passengers. This is a significant piece of information that challenges the narrative of stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports doctors in Voronezh saved a child, which serves as a normalization narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Artillery Systems: The claimed deployment of 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from North Korea suggests a tactical adaptation to bolster artillery capabilities. MoD Russia's video confirms Uragan MLRS use. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS firing rockets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports continued RF use of artillery and FPV drones in Nikopol district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Persistent Border Reconnaissance: The active deployment of the "Anvar" unit on the Sumy/Chernihiv border, utilizing drones, demonstrates a sustained tactical adaptation. Mykolaiv Oblast reconnaissance UAV also points to this. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs over southeastern Sumy Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast, and southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). NEW: Air Force reports a likely reconnaissance UAV heading north towards Sumy city, indicating continued adaptive reconnaissance efforts in border regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rapid Counter-UAV Response: The reported successful repulsion of UAV attacks in Rostov-on-Don and other areas, including Tula and Bryansk Oblasts, indicates RF's adaptive capability to rapidly respond. The reported destruction of 35 UAVs overnight, including nine over Bryansk Oblast, demonstrates an adaptive, scaled response. The reported drone attack on Samara Oblast indicates RF's continued vulnerability. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights counter-drone tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a video showing a military aircraft, likely a fighter jet, in flight during low-light conditions, with apparent explosion or impact. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a photo message showcasing a new anti-drone system from Rostec, capable of localized signal suppression, indicating advanced counter-drone technology development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Exploitation of Occupied Infrastructure: The continued operation of Mariupol port, reported by TASS, demonstrates RF's adaptive strategy to quickly integrate and utilize captured Ukrainian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sustained Naval Logistics: The escort operation of military cargo vessels through the Baltic Sea, North Sea, English Channel, and Atlantic demonstrates RF's sustained capability to move military equipment globally via sea. Putin's toughening of foreign vessel access may impact commercial maritime logistics. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Increased Domestic Drone Production Focus: RF's intent to make Rostov Oblast a leader in UAV development, with military-to-civilian tech transfer and production expansion, highlights a significant adaptive strategy. Budanov's report on Russia's $1.1 trillion rearmament plan by 2036 underpins this. Colonelcassad's video showing large quantities of new dirt bikes/motorcycles being acquired indicates a specific logistical focus and reliance on non-standard channels. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Exploiting Localized UAF Tactical Setbacks: RF rapidly propagating claims of UAF surrender in Popov Yar and the capture of Varachino, and now Hrushevske and Novotoretske, demonstrates an immediate adaptation to exploit perceived UAF tactical setbacks. RF claim of advances near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast. RF claim of UAF surrender in Popov Yar. Claims of Rosgvardia successes in Sumy Oblast against UAF BREM and Gvozdika. RF claims Russian reconnaissance entered Krasnoarmeysk. Narodnaya милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles near Dachne. (CONFIDENCE: LOW for breakthroughs, MEDIUM for new front, MEDIUM for Starytsia, MEDIUM for Popov Yar surrender, MEDIUM for Varachino, MEDIUM for Rosgvardia claims, HIGH for Krasnoarmeysk reconnaissance, HIGH for Hrushevske and Novotoretske as per RF/DeepState claims, HIGH for Dachne as per RF claims). NEW: Рыбарь channel publishes photo/video indicating "Russian infantry in Pokrovsk." While the video is ambiguous, the claim itself suggests potential RF infiltration or presence in the area, which would be a localized UAF setback. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for claim, LOW for definitive visual verification). Воин DV publishes video claiming to show drone footage of an AFU armored vehicle being engaged in Pokrovsk by AIRNOMADS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны publish video claiming fierce battles, increased pace of advance, and destruction of enemy equipment and personnel near Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: "Сливочный каприз" publishes video of a destroyed settlement with a person carrying a Russian flag, captioned "Konstantinovka - Belaya Gora," suggesting RF ground presence and tactical gains. If confirmed as RF occupation, this is a UAF setback. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Басурин о главном publishes video claiming "underground forces" are burning UAF SUVs from Kramatorsk to Kyiv, with footage of a UAF SUV burning after an attack, indicating alleged deep rear operations by pro-RF elements and demonstrating C2 over such operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Военкор Котенок claims destruction of a Ukrainian boat with personnel in Kherson direction using a fiber-optic FPV drone, indicating continued RF FPV operations against UAF small craft. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV reports RF forces active in Krasnoarmeysk direction, claiming to disable Starlink communications for 25th Airborne Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Acknowledgement of Drone Importance: "Два майора" milblogger's commentary acknowledging the need for pre-war drone focus indicates an internal adaptation in strategic thinking. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a photo message highlighting the US integration of unmanned surface vessels (USVs) into naval special forces tactics, likely to implicitly compare or highlight perceived threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Resource Appeals via Milbloggers: "Операция Z" milbloggers' public appeal for thermal imagers indicates an adaptive tactic to leverage public support. NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition calls for help with civilian engineering equipment at the front, indicating an adaptive tactic to source needed materiel from civilian channels. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Народная милиция ДНР publishes photo messages for a fundraising drive for three units actively fighting on the ground in the Sumy direction, indicating continued reliance on volunteer aid for frontline forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок makes an appeal for support from the people of Russia for soldiers on the front lines. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Adaptive Drone Interception (Unverified): "Два майора" claim of a Russian drone intercepting an enemy UAV that was carrying interception drones represents a highly advanced and, if verified, significant tactical adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • ELINT-driven Targeting: Colonelcassad's claim of UAF liquidation based on radio intercepts indicates an adaptive use of ELINT for tactical targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • WarGonzo Mapping: WarGonzo's rapid publication of updated frontline maps indicates an adaptive information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Aggressive DRG Activity (Pokrovsk, Krasnoarmeysk): The new video from "Операция Z" and WarGonzo confirming the ambush by RF DRG in Pokrovsk shows an aggressive and adaptive tactical change. Басурин о главном's report of Russian reconnaissance entering Krasnoarmeysk also highlights aggressive special group activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Рыбарь channel publishes a photo and video indicating "Russian infantry in Pokrovsk," supporting claims of adaptive DRG or ground force activity in the area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes video claiming to show drone footage of an AFU armored vehicle being engaged in Pokrovsk by AIRNOMADS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Басурин о главном publishes video claiming "underground forces" are burning UAF SUVs from Kramatorsk to Kyiv, with footage of a UAF SUV burning after an attack, indicating alleged deep rear operations by pro-RF elements and demonstrating C2 over such operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Fortifications: RF building new fortifications near Chervona Dibrova in LPR signifies an adaptive defensive posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Demining Operations: RF engineers actively engaged in demining in Kharkiv direction indicates adaptive efforts to secure and expand logistical routes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Targeting of UAF UAV C2: Colonelcassad's claim of destroying a UAF UAV command post near Chasiv Yar and MoD Russia's claim of destroying a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction indicate an adaptive targeting strategy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV reports RF forces active in Krasnoarmeysk direction, claiming to disable Starlink communications for 25th Airborne Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Military Personnel Recruitment: Alex Parker Returns publishes videos promoting military service with significant signing bonuses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volunteer Aid (RF forces): Сливочный каприз publishes video showing two individuals next to a van filled with boxes, indicating continued reliance on civilian support for their forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's video on the 4th vehicle convoy confirms continued volunteer aid reliance and its use for tactical resupply (motorcycles). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Народная милиция ДНР publishes photo messages for a fundraising drive for three units actively fighting on the ground in the Sumy direction, indicating continued reliance on volunteer aid for frontline forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad shows two civilian Lada Niva vehicles being prepared for service on the front line, indicating continued reliance on civilian vehicle support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Suppression (VK): Север.Реалии reports VKontakte blocked public pages criticizing the head of the Vologda region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New IT Military Deferral: TASS reports that the acceptance of applications for IT deferrals from military service has begun. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF SU-27 in Romanian Airspace (ISR Adaptation): Colonelcassad's report on a Ukrainian SU-27 in Romanian airspace indicates RF's continued, and perhaps enhanced, ability to conduct aerial surveillance or intelligence gathering on UAF assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Moscow Drone Manufacturing Attack: РБК-Україна reports a car belonging to the head of a company manufacturing drones for occupiers was burned in Moscow, suggesting adaptive UAF deep attacks or internal dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Increased Offensive Pace: Сливочный каприз's chart indicating an increased pace of RF offensive operations (km²/day) for 2024-2025 shows an adaptive shift towards more aggressive ground action. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Internal Police Actions (New): TASS reports investigators opened a criminal case against an internet channel administrator for extortion and public justification of terrorism. This demonstrates adaptive legal actions against perceived internal threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Север.Реалии reports that detentions related to the case of leaking official information occurred in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Krasnodar Krai, and Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора reports the author of a Volgograd Telegram channel was detained for extortion and public justification of Nazism, indicating adaptive legal action against online content. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the chief editor of the Ryazan online publication "Svoy Kolokolny" (Svoy kolokolnya) Komarov was detained in an extortion case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports a local resident was detained in Veliky Novgorod for planning to join the "Russian Volunteer Corps", a Ukrainian organization banned in Russia. The video shows what appears to be an interrogation, suggesting intelligence/security operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора publishes video claiming a "PLO-OPG" (presumably criminal group) was exposed in Blagoveshchensk, involved in harassing locals, indicating internal law enforcement activity against criminal elements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports the arrest of Konstantin Kuranov, Minister of Transport and Road Management for Novgorod Oblast, on bribery charges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad reports the arrest of Konstantin Kuranov, Minister of Transport and Road Management of Novgorod Oblast, for bribery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Citizen Dissident Detention (New): Север.Реалии publishes a video showing a protest in Moscow, with an activist being detained for criticizing censorship and the war. This demonstrates RF's adaptive measures for internal suppression of dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Beer Production (New): TASS publishes a photo message claiming Russia has displaced Germany from the top five largest beer producers in the world, demonstrating an adaptive information operation to highlight economic success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Law Enforcement Detention (New): Север.Реалии reports that detentions related to the case of leaking official information occurred in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Krasnodar Krai, and Belgorod Oblast, showing continued adaptive measures against perceived internal threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Air Force Military Aircraft (New): "Два майора" publishes a video showing a military aircraft, likely a fighter jet, in flight during low-light conditions, with apparent explosion or impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Fighterbomber publishes video showing a military helicopter flying low over a field, indicating adaptive use of rotary-wing assets for reconnaissance or attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Spiritual Values Legislation (New): TASS reports the State Duma has adopted a law to refuse distribution certificates for films that lack distribution certificates or discredit Russian spiritual and moral values, indicating adaptive control over cultural and information spheres. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • China Asset Masking (New): Рыбарь publishes photo messages claiming China is masking US assets, used to highlight perceived US vulnerabilities or Chinese economic maneuvering. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal RF Law Enforcement Measures (New): TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services. This indicates an adaptive measure to enhance internal security and control public gatherings in response to perceived threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kaluga Oblast Migrant Crime (New): Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on a crime involving migrant children in Kaluga Oblast, framed as a "new trend." This is an adaptive information operation aimed at stirring social unrest and criticizing internal policies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Trump on Ukraine/NATO (New): TASS reports Trump, by rejecting Ukraine's NATO membership, swayed it towards negotiations with Russia. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception and suggest US/Ukraine disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Weather-related Conspiracy (New): Старше Эдды implies human intervention in Moscow's heavy rains, suggesting a new adaptive conspiracy theory to explain internal disruptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Business Scrutiny for Financing Ukraine (New): Басурин о главном highlights a State Duma Deputy's request to investigate a perfume company for potentially funding the AFU, which will be leveraged to reinforce the narrative of internal vigilance against Ukrainian support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Draft Law on Year-Round Conscription (New): МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a draft law for year-round conscription has been submitted to the State Duma. This indicates RF's adaptive approach to long-term personnel sustainment, aiming for a continuous flow of recruits. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы publishes a photo message stating a draft law for year-round military conscription has been submitted to the State Duma. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Recognition of Pro-War Artist (New): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video showing film director Igor Bogomolov, husband of Ksenia Sobchak, calling the war with Ukraine "the luck and happiness of our generation," and noting Putin awarded him the title "Honored Artist of Russia" the next day. This indicates state recognition of pro-war cultural figures, which is an adaptive means of bolstering support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • US Diplomatic Engagements (New): TASS reports Trump stated he would likely visit China in the near future and did not exclude talks with Putin during this visit. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception of RF's diplomatic standing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • US Internal Politics (New): TASS reports Trump called on the US Department of Justice to investigate Obama for manipulating intelligence data related to US elections and Russia. This is a direct attempt to leverage US internal political divisions for RF's information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Expert Analysis of RF Offensive (New): РБК-Україна publishes a video featuring an expert discussing the map of possible Russian offensives, highlighting RF's historical reliance on railways for troop movement and the difficulty in predicting exact offensive timings. This indicates RF's adaptive military strategy concerning force deployment and the challenge in predicting offensive timings. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Enemy Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Rail Logistics Disruption: UAF drone attack on Kamianolomni railway station in Rostov Oblast caused a fire and delayed over 50 trains, indicating a significant, albeit temporary, disruption. RF is actively working to restore normal operations. TASS reports all trains to Black Sea resorts on July 22 will follow schedule. TASS reports 517 flights were canceled at Moscow and St. Petersburg airports between July 19-22, affecting 75,000 passengers, due to drone attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Air Transport Disruption: UAF drone attacks caused repeated temporary closures of Moscow airports. RF is actively working to restore normal civilian air traffic, exemplified by the recent lifting of restrictions at Samara and Kaluga airports. TASS reports Sheremetyevo airport is organizing recreation zones for passengers. WarGonzo questions conditions at Moscow airport during "carpet plan" (drone attack), indicating continued public concern about disruptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a serviceman could not see his family due to air collapse. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Infrastructure Vulnerability (Weather): Heavy rainfall in Moscow and a bridge collapse highlight internal infrastructure vulnerabilities. The mudslide in Kabardino-Balkaria and the damaged bridge further highlights environmental vulnerabilities. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. The severe drought conditions in Donbas, impacting the Khanzhenkovo reservoir, indicate a significant environmental and logistical challenge for water supply to cities in DNR, and potentially for military operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ТАСС publishes videos showing flooded metro tracks at "Bagrationovskaya" and "Kuntsevskaya" stations due to heavy rain, causing service disruptions. Another video shows a flooded train station/underpass, confirming significant weather impact on urban infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ publishes multiple videos showing severe urban flooding in Moscow, with vehicles navigating deep water and commercial establishments affected. This indicates significant weather impacts on civilian infrastructure in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA publishes videos showing severe urban flooding in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Resource Requirements: RF continues to rely on civilian donations for certain equipment ("vehicle kits" for frontline units), indicating ongoing but manageable sustainment needs. The reported use of North Korean 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" suggests RF is willing and able to source military equipment from international partners. The announced focus on making Rostov Oblast a leader in UAV development, and Alex Parker Returns' military recruitment efforts, indicate a long-term strategic investment. The appeal for thermal imagers via milbloggers highlights specific ongoing equipment needs. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. Сливочный каприз publishes video showing volunteer aid delivery to the 70th regiment. Colonelcassad's video showing large quantities of new dirt bikes/motorcycles being acquired indicates a specific logistical focus and reliance on non-standard channels. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition calls for help with civilian engineering equipment at the front, indicating a specific logistical gap. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Народная милиция ДНР publishes photo messages for a fundraising drive for three units actively fighting on the ground in the Sumy direction, indicating continued reliance on volunteer aid for frontline forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок makes an appeal for support from the people of Russia for soldiers on the front lines. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad shows two civilian Lada Niva vehicles being prepared for service on the front line, indicating continued reliance on civilian vehicle support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Maritime Logistics (Occupied Territories): The reported operation of Mariupol port indicates RF's ability to establish and utilize maritime logistics in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Global Naval Logistics: The escort operation of military cargo vessels through the Baltic Sea, North Sea, English Channel, and Atlantic demonstrates RF's sustained capability to move military equipment globally via sea. Putin's toughening of foreign vessel access may impact commercial maritime logistics. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Impact of UK Sanctions: New UK sanctions against 135 RF "shadow fleet" tankers aim to disrupt RF's oil export revenues. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Russia reduced liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 7% in the first half of the year due to sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Personnel Sustainment: The proposed 7.6% salary increase for military personnel indicates RF's awareness of the need to maintain morale and retention. High-level corruption cases within the MoD (Popov) could, however, impact morale. FSB detentions of alleged Ukrainian agents who confessed to planning railway infrastructure attacks suggest active UAF efforts to disrupt RF logistics. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the liquidation of Gennady Starunov, a Russian "Teacher of the Year 2022," who was mobilized. The IT military deferrals indicate a policy to manage personnel sustainment. ASTRA reports a teenager claiming torture after detention for forest arson. TASS reports State Duma allowed widows of SVO fighters to use their cars until inheritance is issued. Военкор Котенок shares a photo report on the absence of water in Donbas, which can impact civilian well-being and potentially military sustainment in the long run. Операция Z's information operation about "traitors-Nazis from Russia" being handed over by Kyiv and committing suicide aims to manage internal personnel issues. TASS reporting on the death of State Duma Deputy Mikhail Tarasenko. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports foreign citizens face pressure from military enlistment offices, indicating challenges in personnel recruitment and sustainment, especially for foreign fighters. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a draft law for year-round conscription has been submitted to the State Duma. This indicates RF is formalizing and potentially expanding its conscription system to sustain personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы publishes a photo message stating a draft law for year-round military conscription has been submitted to the State Duma. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports that hundreds of thousands of children in Russia are involved in defense work, highlighting RF's extensive use of labor resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Components Sourcing (New): RBC-Ukraine reports that the majority of components for a new RF UAV are sourced from China. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Cyberattack on Civilian Supply Chain: The cyberattack on Winelab stores, while civilian, highlights a potential vulnerability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Pensioner Treason Case: ASTRA reports a pensioner from Izhevsk, Sergey Silantyev, was sentenced to 15 years for treason but released due to health. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Illegal Logging (Ukraine Carpathians): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports large-scale illegal logging in Ukrainian Carpathians caused 55.8 million UAH in damages. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Domestic Agriculture: TASS reports the first 40,000 domestic banana saplings will go on sale in autumn. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Transportation Fees: Новости Москвы reports that registration fees for vehicles and driver's licenses will increase from September 1, 2025, which may impact civilian logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• EU Frozen Assets: РБК-Україна reports the EU wants to informally discuss the fate of frozen Russian assets. This could impact RF's financial sustainment if assets are used to aid Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internet Infrastructure: Colonelcassad reports that the head of RF Digital Development Ministry, Maksut Shadayev, states Russia has fully deployed 5G networks in 45 regions. This indicates ongoing efforts to modernize communication infrastructure, potentially supporting military C2 and civilian services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Railway Ticket Sales Restrictions (New): TASS reports the Duma restricted the sale of electronic railway tickets through third-party aggregators that are not carriers. This is a domestic regulation potentially aimed at securing personal data or controlling flow of information related to transport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness

• Centralized Deep Strike Coordination: The multi-vector, multi-platform nature of the recent aerial assault demonstrates effective centralized C2 for strategic-level operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Tactical Drone Integration: Continued effective integration of FPV and reconnaissance drones for tactical kinetic effects indicates effective C2 at the unit level. The FPV strike on a UAF soldier in Sumy direction and two injured in Belgorod by FPV drone further demonstrates localized tactical C2 effectiveness. MoD Russia's video of "Feniks" drone in action suggests effective C2 over tactical drone operations. Colonelcassad's claim of destroying a UAF UAV command post and MoD Russia's claim of destroying a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk further indicates this. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights effective counter-drone C2. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. Colonelcassad's video on "Harpy" drones indicates effective C2 for deployment and targeting. Colonelcassad publishes video claiming "exemplary work" of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 5th Guards Tank Brigade drone operators in destroying AFU armored vehicles and personnel near Alexandrovgrad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Воин DV publishes drone video claiming the 305th Artillery Brigade used a Lancet loitering munition to strike a UAF Dana self-propelled howitzer, demonstrating effective C2 for combined arms/drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a photo message showcasing a new anti-drone system from Rostec, capable of localized signal suppression, indicating C2 over R&D and deployment of advanced counter-drone technology. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Военкор Котенок claims destruction of a Ukrainian boat with personnel in Kherson direction using a fiber-optic FPV drone, indicating C2 effectiveness for precision kinetic effects against small naval targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS publishes video showing FPV drone operators from "Rubikon" center striking AFU armored vehicles and personnel. This further confirms effective C2 for FPV drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Басурин о главном publishes a video showcasing the 'Omich' (Омич) robotic complex, highlighting C2 over the development and deployment of robotic ground vehicles for logistics and support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV reports RF forces active in Krasnoarmeysk direction, claiming to disable Starlink communications for 25th Airborne Brigade, indicating effective EW and targeting C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора publishes several images and claims about RF drone trials organized by BRAVE1, indicating a misunderstanding of the source but highlighting continued RF focus on drone technology. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Information Operations C2: The rapid and consistent dissemination of RF narratives across various milblogger and state media channels, now including immediate exploitation of POWs, violent TCC detentions, and civilian testimonials (Mash on Donbas, Andriivka), indicates a highly centralized and effective C2 over information operations. The coordinated push of civilian-focused news by TASS and other RF channels indicates well-managed C2 over state media narratives. The immediate reporting and video dissemination of the Kramatorsk KAB strike by RF milbloggers and state media, framing it as a successful military action despite civilian casualties, indicates agile C2 for propaganda. The rapid framing of the NABU scandal as a loss of Western support, the narrative of "Latin American mercenaries" fleeing, and the targeting of UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky with personal information also indicate adaptive C2 for disinformation. The immediate reporting on detentions for monument desecration and other internal security events also falls under this C2. The cynical framing of the Polish General's death demonstrates coordinated narrative control. RF MFA statements further indicate centralized diplomatic messaging. FSB detentions and subsequent propaganda videos demonstrate rapid adaptation for internal security and counter-intelligence messaging. Raids on "Baza" media outlet, and the subsequent arrest of its editor-in-chief, further demonstrate C2 over internal information flows and suppression of independent media. TASS provides video of the Baza office situation. TASS reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. TASS reports Peskov's statements on Istanbul negotiations control the narrative. TASS also reports Trump plans to withdraw the US from UNESCO. TASS reports on Milan Mayor Sala's corruption suspicions. TASS reports Gazmanov's call for artists to support SMO fighters for moral support. TASS reports the ban on child toy sales in Kandahar, Afghanistan. WarGonzo reports on the Russia-China-Iran nuclear meeting. Басурин о главном publishes video "Catching traitors and enemies of Russia." Басурин о главном leveraging Tucker Carlson's statement is a new adaptive information tactic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, demonstrating effective C2 in responding to perceived threats and controlling public space. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора reports detention of a Telegram channel author in Volgograd for extortion and public justification of Nazism, showcasing C2 over internal information control and legal action. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on migrant crime in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend" and criticizing Russian authorities. This demonstrates agile C2 in exploiting social issues for propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Trump, by rejecting Ukraine's NATO membership, swayed it towards negotiations with Russia. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception and suggest US/Ukraine disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Басурин о главном highlights a State Duma Deputy's request to investigate a perfume company for potentially funding the AFU, indicating C2 over expanding internal information operations to identify and suppress perceived threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z reports that Ukrainian MP Skorokhod admitted that TCC "beat mobilized people to death" across Ukraine, an RF information operation aimed at creating internal Ukrainian disunity, demonstrating C2 over information dissemination. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns posts an image with text that translates to "The puzzle has come together. Inside information.", which likely refers to an internal RF information operation and demonstrates C2 over narrative control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video showing film director Igor Bogomolov, husband of Ksenia Sobchak, calling the war with Ukraine "the luck and happiness of our generation," and noting Putin awarded him the title "Honored Artist of Russia" the next day. This indicates state recognition of pro-war cultural figures and reflects C2 over propaganda messaging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: "Два майора" publishes a photo message containing a statement from the former Polish Land Forces Commander Skrzypczak, highlighting his calls to attack Belarus and Kaliningrad, used to vilify foreign military figures and reinforce the narrative of external threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Trump is likely to visit China soon, and did not exclude talks with Putin during this visit. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception of RF's diplomatic standing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Trump called on the US Department of Justice to investigate Obama for manipulating intelligence data related to US elections and Russia. This is a direct attempt to leverage US internal political divisions for RF's information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad states that the newly appointed PM Yulia Svrydenko's claim that corruption is exaggerated in Ukrainian society is a lie, continuing the "Ukrainian corruption" narrative and showing C2 over information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo message with the caption "425. Думайте," likely a propaganda message, demonstrating C2 over content dissemination. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Kotsnews publishes a graphic titled "EVENING BELL" with text criticizing Ukrainian authorities. This is a common RF information operation tactic, demonstrating C2 over information dissemination. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Security Operations C2: The successful detention of alleged Ukrainian intelligence agents, the internal NABU operation, and the FSB's recent report of thwarting Ukrainian special services suggest effective counter-intelligence C2 within RF. The in absentia charging of a blogger for promoting terrorism, Khabarovsk police report on hooliganism, Novosibirsk hacking arrest, searches at Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko's home, the detention of a migrant in Tyumen, and the arrest of Moldovan oligarch Plahotniuc demonstrates RF's ability to maintain C2 over legal mechanisms for internal security. The swift reporting on repelling drone attacks in Rostov, Tula, and other areas, with updated high interception numbers including Bryansk Oblast, indicates effective C2 for internal air defense. The reporting on the death of the Supreme Court Chairman, emphasizing a smooth transition, projects stability in the judicial C2. The detention of a political opposition figure also demonstrates C2 over political dissent. The ongoing high-level corruption cases against former MoD officials also fall under internal C2. The detention of two foreign nationals for dancing in St. Petersburg and the raids on "Baza" media outlet, including the editor-in-chief's arrest, indicate strict social control. TASS provides video of the Baza office situation. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. TASS reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. Operatsiya Z reports a criminal case for exceeding authority has been opened against police officers in Moscow who leaked information. TASS reports IT deferrals for military service are open. ASTRA reports a pensioner from Izhevsk was sentenced for treason but released due to health. TASS reports State Duma adopted law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. TASS reports Duma adopted an amendment fining citizens for disclosing state secrets in media. TASS reports no plans to block foreign messengers, but compliance with requirements. TASS reports investigators opened a criminal case against an internet channel administrator for extortion and public justification of terrorism. TASS reports the military court sentenced Lithuanian Bartkevichius to 23 years in absentia for desecrating a military grave and other terror-related crimes in Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, demonstrating effective C2 in responding to perceived threats and controlling public space. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора reports detention of a Telegram channel author in Volgograd for extortion and public justification of Nazism, showcasing C2 over internal information control and legal action. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the chief editor of the Ryazan online publication "Svoy Kolokolny" (Svoy kolokolnya) Komarov was detained in an extortion case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports a local resident was detained in Veliky Novgorod for planning to join the "Russian Volunteer Corps", a Ukrainian organization banned in Russia. The video shows what appears to be an interrogation, suggesting intelligence/security operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a draft law for year-round conscription has been submitted to the State Duma. This indicates centralized C2 over long-term personnel strategy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы publishes a photo message stating a draft law for year-round military conscription has been submitted to the State Duma. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора publishes video claiming a "PLO-OPG" (presumably criminal group) was exposed in Blagoveshchensk, involved in harassing locals, indicating effective C2 over internal law enforcement activity against criminal elements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports the arrest of Konstantin Kuranov, Minister of Transport and Road Management for Novgorod Oblast, on bribery charges. ASTRA provides photo confirmation. This indicates effective C2 over anti-corruption efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad reports the arrest of Konstantin Kuranov, Minister of Transport and Road Management of Novgorod Oblast, for bribery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports blogger Dud is заочно (in absentia) accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports Yuri Dud is заочно (in absentia) accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Adaptation to Civilian Disruptions: RF authorities demonstrate effective C2 in managing civilian disruptions from UAF drone attacks and adverse weather, including rapid lifting of flight restrictions and coordination of recovery efforts, and planning for future drone development. The declaration of an emergency situation in Kabardino-Balkaria due to a mudslide and the damaged bridge also show C2 responsiveness. The rapid recovery of Winelab stores from a cyberattack demonstrates C2 over critical civilian infrastructure. TASS reports Sheremetyevo airport is organizing recreation zones for passengers. WarGonzo questions conditions at Moscow airport during "carpet plan" (drone attack), indicates public awareness and C2 attempts to manage it. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad reports that the head of RF Digital Development Ministry, Maksut Shadayev, states Russia has fully deployed 5G networks in 45 regions. This indicates effective C2 over critical infrastructure development and modernization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы posts a video showing water puddles and cleaning operations inside a public building, suggesting a spill or leak, and another showing heavy rain and flooded streets, indicating C2 over management of public information regarding internal issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ТАСС publishes videos showing flooded metro tracks at "Bagrationovskaya" and "Kuntsevskaya" stations due to heavy rain, causing service disruptions. Another video shows a flooded train station/underpass, confirming C2 to manage and report on these disruptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ publishes multiple videos showing severe urban flooding in Moscow, with vehicles navigating deep water and commercial establishments affected. This indicates C2 in handling public information regarding internal disruptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ground Operations C2: Liveuamap Source reports multiple clashes across various axes, and WarGonzo's updated maps indicate coordinated ground operations C2, even if localized. The claimed advances near Starytsia, the claimed surrender at Popov Yar, the claimed capture of Varachino, and the claimed infiltration of Krasnoarmeysk, and now the claimed liberation of Hrushevske and Novotoretske, if verified, would point to effective localized ground C2 and targeting. The new video of DRG activity in Pokrovsk and Krasnoarmeysk further highlights localized, aggressive ground C2. RF's ability to conduct demining operations in Kharkiv direction and build new fortifications in Luhansk also indicate effective engineering C2. Rosgvardia's claimed successes in Sumy Oblast also point to effective localized C2. TASS video of APC maneuvering indicates C2 over tactical ground units. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle, moving along a road, with one appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) during movement. The chart from Сливочный каприз showing an increased offensive pace indicates a coordinated effort to sustain ground operations. MoD Russia's video on Uragan MLRS use indicates C2 over artillery support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Рыбарь channel publishing photo and video implying "Russian infantry in Pokrovsk" suggests coordinated ground movements and C2 at the tactical level. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes video claiming to show drone footage of an AFU armored vehicle being engaged in Pokrovsk by AIRNOMADS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video of 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade using FPV drones to destroy two pieces of RF mechanized equipment during an attempted assault, confirming RF ground force engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: "Сливочный каприз" publishes video of a destroyed settlement with a person carrying a Russian flag, captioned "Konstantinovka - Belaya Gora," suggesting RF ground presence and tactical gains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Басурин о главном publishes video claiming "underground forces" are burning UAF SUVs from Kramatorsk to Kyiv, with footage of a UAF SUV burning after an attack, indicating alleged deep rear operations by pro-RF elements and demonstrating C2 over such operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Военкор Котенок claims destruction of a Ukrainian boat with personnel in Kherson direction using a fiber-optic FPV drone, indicating C2 over precision targeting of UAF small craft. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Басурин о главном publishes a video showcasing the 'Omich' (Омич) robotic complex, designed for logistical and support roles, highlighting C2 over the development and deployment of robotic ground vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Naval C2: The coordinated escort of military cargo vessels from the Baltic Sea to the Atlantic demonstrates effective C2 for projecting naval power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Long-Term Military Planning C2: Budanov's report on Russia's $1.1 trillion rearmament plan by 2036 indicates centralized, long-term strategic C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• International Diplomatic C2: WarGonzo reports a Russia-China-Iran trilateral meeting planned today on nuclear issues, indicating strategic diplomatic C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Trump is likely to visit China soon, and did not exclude talks with Putin during this visit. This suggests RF C2 is monitoring and leveraging potential shifts in US foreign policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian force posture and readiness

• Air Defense (AD) Posture (Strained but Effective, Adaptive): UAF AD remains fully engaged and highly effective, with 224 targets destroyed and 203 UAVs suppressed. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast's increased interception of 14 UAVs overnight demonstrates sustained local AD effectiveness. This, however, comes at a critical cost to interceptor stockpiles. The engagement across a vast geographic area, including successful interceptions over Chernivtsi and Kyiv, confirms nationwide coverage and readiness. The deployment of mobile AD units (ZU-23 on trucks) in Mykolaiv demonstrates tactical adaptation. AD active in Odesa against incoming Shaheds. The commitment from the Netherlands for Patriot AD systems is a positive development. Latest report of 26 downed/suppressed UAVs and 7 neutralized by REB indicates continued effectiveness against drones (Air Force reports 42 RF drones attacked). Confirmed ballistic missile threat to Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk indicates continued AD readiness requirements. The detection of a reconnaissance UAV in Mykolaiv Oblast indicates continued AD readiness requirements. Ukraine and Denmark are developing an AI-powered drone interceptor. The showcasing of F-16s with support equipment and the receipt of mobile complexes for F-16 maintenance indicates preparations. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video of 31st Brigade anti-aircraft drone systems successfully attacking Russian drones in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs over southeastern Sumy Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast, and southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAV from northeast towards Sumy. NEW: Air Force reports a likely reconnaissance UAV heading north towards Sumy city. NEW: Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. Means for their destruction have been engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showcasing the "Pomsta" (Revenge) Brigade of the State Border Guard Service (DPSU) using drone interceptors to hunt Russian UAVs, including ZALA, Supercam, and Orlan. The video shows successful engagements and the aftermath of a downed drone, confirming specialized counter-drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: STERNENKO publishes a video showing a drone flying in the sky, with Ukrainian emblems and a QR code for donations, captioned "Signum unit of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade continuously stands guard over our sky!", indicating continued air defense and fundraising efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: РБК-Україна reports Germany will transfer two Patriot systems if they can be quickly replaced, as stated by Pistorius. This indicates continued, albeit conditional, international AD support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports Germany's willingness to transfer two Patriot systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Военкор Котенок reports German Defense Minister Pistorius is ready to quickly supply Kyiv with two Patriot systems, provided the US replaces them within 6-8 months. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ground Forces Posture (Defensive & Adaptive, localized offensive capability): UAF ground forces are primarily in a defensive posture, particularly in the Eastern and Southern axes, repelling multiple RF assaults (23 on Kursk/Sumy axis, 4 in Kherson direction, 22 in Kursk and North Slobozhansky directions). Training activities (61st OMBr tank crews) indicate continued efforts to maintain combat readiness. GUR's claimed use of ground robots and drone operators conducting deep logistics interdiction demonstrates an adaptive and innovative posture. Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment holding back RF advances in Donetsk Oblast indicates continued localized ground resistance. UAF 63rd Brigade reports liquidation of 33 RF personnel via drone operations. The 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade's success in creating a "kill zone" in Donetsk Oblast demonstrates highly effective FPV drone tactical capabilities. The introduction of domestically produced 155-mm Bohdana-BG howitzers further enhances UAF's long-range artillery capabilities. The 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade is actively recruiting drone operators. The mobilization of approximately 9500 convicts into AFU ranks reflects efforts to address personnel needs. Photos of a UAF soldier with a weapon aim to project professionalism. STERNENKO provides video from "Sanitary Zone Flying Skull" showing drones on fiber optics flying into enemy positions, destroying a car, motorcycle, and enemy property and ammunition. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes video of a GUR experimental ground drone with two grenade launchers undergoing combat adaptation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing aeroreconnaissance from the 4th battalion of the 101st Brigade targeting a Russian occupant. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also publishes a video of Ukrainian soldiers, including Latin American volunteers, participating in combat training exercises. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes drone video showing the 1st Separate Special Purpose Detachment of the Omega CSP successfully dropping a munition on five Russian occupiers, resulting in at least one fatality and multiple serious injuries. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video of 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade using FPV drones to destroy two pieces of RF mechanized equipment during an attempted assault, confirming successful engagement against armored targets. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes a video showing Ukrainian drone operators (427th Separate Unmanned Systems Regiment "Rarog") using "fireball" bombs (improvised incendiary devices dropped from heavy drones) to destroy houses and premises used by the enemy in the frontline zone. Video shows multiple explosions and fires in a village. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes drone footage showing the Khartia brigade's engagement against enemy personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes a video titled "FPV-storm from Slobozhansky paratroopers!", showing effective FPV drone strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Defense Forces have withdrawn to the flanks and are holding Kamyansk under fire control, indicating an adaptive defensive maneuver. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes a video of five individuals in camouflage and tactical vests, holding assault rifles, indicating active military presence. The caption states they are from the 63rd Mechanized Brigade and are crowdfunding for two copters for artillery reconnaissance in the Luhansk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Security Readiness (Active Counter-Intelligence): The large-scale SBU/OGP operation against NABU employees, including the detention of a senior detective suspected of aiding RF, indicates a high state of internal security readiness. Ukrainian police also helped neutralize pro-Russian hacker network NoName057(16). The suspension of the President of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences highlights continued anti-corruption efforts. The shooting in Vasylkiv, while a civilian incident, highlights the need for continued internal security vigilance. The Prosecutor General's Office initiating investigations into attacks on Odesa, Donetsk, and Sumy highlights proactive legal measures. The ongoing NABU information leak investigation. A court has remanded NABU employee Viktor Husarov into custody. An employee of NABU's "most elite closed unit," suspected of treason, has had a pre-trial detention measure chosen. NABU Director Krivonos called on Zelenskyy not to sign bill. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора publishes a photo message stating the General Prosecutor's Office is systematically holding accountable individuals working for the enemy, highlighting the exposure and sentencing of "traitors." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes photo messages about an international police special operation that identified a "pseudominer" of facilities in Czechia, Slovakia, and Latvia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Стрелков Игорь Иванович's report on Ukrainian authorities mandating UOC to declare a break with ROC is an internal security/political measure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the court arrested the head of a NABU unit, suspected of aiding the aggressor state. This confirms continued active measures against internal threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Офіс Генерального прокурора publishes photo messages related to a criminal organization with 9 drug labs and monthly turnover over 7 million UAH, indicating continued efforts by Ukrainian law enforcement to combat organized crime. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора also reports holding a meeting with G7 representatives, SBU, and SBI. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that international partners have received answers regarding the work of Ukrainian law enforcement agencies and the recent special operation to neutralize Russian influence on NABU, as stated by Prosecutor General Kravchenko. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Overall Readiness (Sustained by External Aid and Domestic Focus): Ukraine's overall military readiness is sustained by a combination of continued international military aid, as well as a critical focus on increasing domestic weapons and drone production. The ongoing discussions for additional NATO funding also contribute to long-term readiness. High morale and defiance observed. President Zelenskyy's moratorium on baseless business checks aims to improve the internal economic environment. Participation in Ramstein meetings signifies continued high-level strategic coordination. Chief of General Staff's diplomatic engagement reinforces this. Ukraine will need at least $120 billion for defense next year. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Emergency Services Readiness: The swift and effective response by DSNS to the extensive civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa and Sumy demonstrates a high level of readiness. The immediate response to the Kramatorsk KAB strike further confirms this readiness. Олексій Білошицький reports paramedics assisting a civilian in Sloviansk after a Russian attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing emergency responders aiding injured individuals in a damaged residential building in Sumy, confirming active emergency response. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kryvyi Rih Stability: Local administration confirms controlled situation. Олександр Вілкул publishes photo messages regarding thermal modernization of educational facilities. Олександр Вілкул provides a briefing summary highlighting the controlled situation in Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• PSYOPS Capability: The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade's video appealing to RF soldiers to surrender. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦's message "Treason is needed by the enemy, but the traitor is needed by no one!" is a counter-propaganda message. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Soldier Welfare Initiatives: Information on pensions for military personnel highlights focus on soldier welfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Prisoner of War Issues: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the death of the oldest civilian prisoner, Oleksandr Markov (74), in Russian captivity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Координаційний штаб з питань поводлення з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) publishes multiple photos from a meeting with the families of soldiers from the 150th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, indicating ongoing efforts to support families and address POW issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Airspace Monitoring: Colonelcassad reports on a Ukrainian SU-27 in Romanian airspace. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Frontline Support: The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's photos of reinforcing the front with military requests (drones, radio equipment) demonstrate ongoing and responsive support to frontline units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Materiel Acquisition/Resupply: STERNENKO provides photo and video messages showing a new batch of 417 drones delivered to the front line, and military personnel unboxing mortar rounds/artillery shells and expressing gratitude for the support. This indicates active and successful efforts to acquire and resupply critical materiel to frontline units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: РБК-Україна publishes a photo message stating that Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko claims up to 90% of strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this year were carried out by drones, highlighting the significant threat and resource strain on AD. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Medical Front: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes multiple photo messages from a forum titled "Medical Front: experience, challenges, future" held in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, highlighting the need for continued focus and resources for military medicine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes photo messages regarding the professional holiday for miners and metallurgists, and rewarding them for their work and assistance in supporting defense capabilities. This highlights civilian contribution to the war effort. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sports Achievement: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes photo messages announcing Zaporizhzhia athletes won prizes at the Ukrainian Kayak and Canoe Championship, likely aimed at boosting national morale and unity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Dnipropetrovsk Defense Council Meeting (New): 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes photos from a meeting of the Defense Council in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, attended by military leadership, law enforcement, and emergency services. This indicates proactive and continued strategic planning and coordination at the regional level to maintain security and readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Public Health Campaign (New): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a public service announcement video on the dangers of tobacco and nicotine products, particularly for youth, indicating a proactive approach to public welfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Video showcasing tactical effectiveness (New): Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes a video with the caption "😎🇺🇦", depicting tactical footage, likely aimed at boosting morale through showcasing military effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Drone strike footage (New): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes a video with the caption "Нові "шедеври" "Мосфільму"", showing a person wrapped in black plastic, bound to a tree, in camouflage, suggesting a potentially controversial or ambiguous image. This type of content, if from UAF sources, could be used for psychological operations or to highlight RF practices. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - due to ambiguity of content source/purpose).
• Inter-regional cooperation (New): 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes photos regarding a visit from Myroslav Biletskyi, Head of Zakarpattia Oblast Military Administration, indicating continued inter-regional cooperation and support efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Israeli MFA Visit to Kyiv (New): STERNENKO reports Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar arrived in Kyiv for an official visit. This indicates continued international diplomatic engagement and support for Ukraine. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm the visit of Israeli Foreign Minister. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar has arrived in Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF Drone Development (New): Два майора cites "enemy resources" that report about drone trials organized by BRAVE1, a Ukrainian cluster for military technology development for the AFU. This confirms active UAF efforts in drone R&D. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Recent tactical successes or setbacks

• Tactical Successes:
  • High AD Interception Rate: UAF AD successfully intercepted or suppressed 224 aerial targets by fire and 203 UAVs through REB. Dnipropetrovsk AD shot down 14 UAVs. Latest report confirms 26 UAVs shot down/suppressed and 7 neutralized, out of 42 RF drones. AD engagement of UAV near Odesa, and UAV heading towards Kryvyi Rih. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video of 31st Brigade anti-aircraft drone systems successfully attacking Russian drones in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showcasing the "Pomsta" (Revenge) Brigade of the State Border Guard Service (DPSU) using drone interceptors to hunt Russian UAVs, including ZALA, Supercam, and Orlan. The video shows successful engagements and the aftermath of a downed drone, confirming specialized counter-drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: STERNENKO publishes a video showing a drone flying in the sky, with Ukrainian emblems and a QR code for donations, captioned "Signum unit of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade continuously stands guard over our sky!", indicating successful air defense operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Deep Strike on RF Logistics: Successful UAF UAV strike on Kamianolomni railway station in Rostov Oblast, causing significant disruption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Targeted RF AD Destruction: Successful UAF drone strike on an RF S-400 (92N6E MLRS) system in Belgorod Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports HIMARS strikes on an RF S-300 battery, "Nebo-M" radar, and "Big Bird" radar in Belgorod Oblast. Alex Parker Returns claims UAF video shows HIMARS strike on S-400 in Belgorod. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for drone strike, MEDIUM for HIMARS strike). NEW: "Два майора" publishes a video of an aerial attack on a convoy of vehicles, likely military trucks, in a rural setting, captioned about a strike on an S-300/400 in Belgorod, suggesting UAF counter-battery or deep strike effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Innovative Tactical Deployments: Confirmed deployment of UAF GUR ground robots in combat (Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions) and successful use of ground drones for medical evacuation. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes video of a GUR experimental ground drone with two grenade launchers undergoing combat adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Deep Logistics Interdiction: UAF drones demonstrating capability to cut deep RF logistics (30-40km behind lines) and create kill zones, as seen with the 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade's "kill zone" in Donetsk Oblast, and STERNENKO's "Sanitary Zone Flying Skull" operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Counter-battery Success: UAF 44th Artillery Brigade successfully targeted and destroyed an RF 2A65 Msta-B howitzer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Personnel Losses: UAF 63rd Brigade claiming extensive RF personnel losses through drone strikes. UAF General Staff provides updated RF loss estimates. The 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade's FPV drone operations resulted in multiple enemy personnel losses. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the liquidation of Gennady Starunov, a Russian "Teacher of the Year 2022," who was mobilized. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shows UAF drone engaging a Russian occupant. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes drone video showing the 1st Separate Special Purpose Detachment of the Omega CSP successfully dropping a munition on five Russian occupiers, resulting in at least one fatality and multiple serious injuries. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video of 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade using FPV drones to destroy two pieces of RF mechanized equipment during an attempted assault, confirming successful engagement against armored targets. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes a video showing Ukrainian drone operators (427th Separate Unmanned Systems Regiment "Rarog") using "fireball" bombs (improvised incendiary devices dropped from heavy drones) to destroy houses and premises used by the enemy in the frontline zone. Video shows multiple explosions and fires in a village. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes drone footage showing the Khartia brigade's engagement against enemy personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes a video titled "FPV-storm from Slobozhansky paratroopers!", showing successful drone strikes on military targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Liquidation of RF Sabotage Groups: DeepState reports liquidation of RF sabotage groups in Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cyber Security Success: Ukrainian police helped neutralize pro-Russian hacker network NoName057(16). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes photo messages about an international police special operation that identified a "pseudominer" of facilities in Czechia, Slovakia, and Latvia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Repatriation: Ukraine returned a teenager forcibly taken from Mariupol to Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kinetic Impact on RF Military Airfield: Successful drone attack on Millerovo military airfield in Rostov Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Response Effectiveness: Confirmed rapid and effective response by State Emergency Service (DSNS) to large-scale civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa and Sumy. Confirmed rapid response in Kramatorsk. Олексій Білошицький reports paramedics assisting a civilian in Sloviansk after a Russian attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing emergency responders aiding injured individuals in a damaged residential building in Sumy, confirming active emergency response. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Netherlands Patriot Contribution: Commitment from the Netherlands to contribute to Patriot AD systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Internal Drone Attack: Confirmed drone attack on Samara Oblast, RF, resulting in fire at Novosuybyshevsk oil refinery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade Counter-Drone Ops: Video from the 47th Brigade suggests successful engagements against RF ZALA drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Domestic Artillery Deployment: Domestic 155-mm Bohdana-BG howitzers entering service with the 40th Separate Artillery Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Corruption: Suspension of the President of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences for criminal investigation. Continued NABU information leak investigation. A court has remanded NABU employee Viktor Husarov into custody. An employee of NABU's "most elite closed unit," suspected of treason, has had a pre-trial detention measure chosen. NABU uncovered an SBU official in a record bribe case. Completed investigation into illegal coal mining. Official of "Forests of Ukraine" notified of suspicion for illegal enrichment. Офіс Генерального прокурора publishes a photo message stating the General Prosecutor's Office is systematically holding accountable individuals working for the enemy, highlighting the exposure and sentencing of "traitors." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the court arrested the head of a NABU unit, suspected of aiding the aggressor state. This confirms continued success in combating internal threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Офіс Генерального прокурора publishes photo messages related to a criminal organization with 9 drug labs and monthly turnover over 7 million UAH, indicating continued efforts by Ukrainian law enforcement to combat organized crime. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора also reports holding a meeting with G7 representatives, SBU, and SBI. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that international partners have received answers regarding the work of Ukrainian law enforcement agencies and the recent special operation to neutralize Russian influence on NABU, as stated by Prosecutor General Kravchenko. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Counterfeit Operations: Successful operation against counterfeit perfume/cosmetics manufacturing in Poltava Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Convict Mobilization: Successful integration of approximately 9500 convicts into AFU ranks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukraine-Denmark Drone Interceptor: Development of AI-powered drone interceptor with Denmark. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Netherlands Aid for AD/F-16: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting on specific Netherlands aid package highlights continued strong international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Car Market Rebound: RBC-Ukraine's report on increased demand for auto products in Ukraine projects economic resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ramstein Meeting Participation: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ highlighting high-level participation in Ramstein meeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Professionalism of UAF: Десантно-штурмові війвіка ЗС України publishing photos of UAF soldiers with weapons. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦's video contrasting an RF cynical message with a Ukrainian sentiment ("I am personally from Odessa and have no plans to join Russia") highlights Ukrainian identity and resistance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Diplomatic Engagement: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ showcasing Chief of General Staff's address to foreign diplomats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • F-16 Project: Повітряні Сили ЗС України publishes video showcasing an F-16 fighter jet. RBC-Україна reports Air Force received first unique mobile complexes for F-16 maintenance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF LNG Export Reduction: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Russia reduced liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 7% in the first half of the year due to sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Odesa Shahed Recovery: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the recovery of a Shahed UAV from the shore near Odesa. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow Drone Manufacturing Attack: РБК-Україна reports a car belonging to the head of a company manufacturing drones for occupiers was burned in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Frontline Reinforcement (Zaporizhzhia): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes photos reinforcing the Zaporizhzhia front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a video message about strengthening the front in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including increasing the defense fund to 3 billion hryvnias, constructing an anti-drone road on the Orikhivskyyi highway, and plans for over 200 km of such infrastructure. Mentions a meeting with the Minister of Defense and President Zelenskyy's decision on Ukraine's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention (anti-personnel mines), stating daily production and delivery of 1,000-1,000 mine components. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Materiel Acquisition/Resupply: STERNENKO provides photo and video messages showing a new batch of 417 drones delivered to the front line, and military personnel unboxing mortar rounds/artillery shells and expressing gratitude for the support. This indicates active and successful efforts to acquire and resupply critical materiel to frontline units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sports Achievement: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes photo messages announcing Zaporizhzhia athletes won prizes at the Ukrainian Kayak and Canoe Championship, highlighting continued national resilience and achievement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kamyansk Defensive Maneuver (New): Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Defense Forces have withdrawn to the flanks and are holding Kamyansk under fire control, indicating an adaptive defensive maneuver. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vessel Destruction (New): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes video showing a burning naval vessel, likely after a successful UAF attack, confirming significant kinetic success against RF maritime assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Drone Development (New): Два майора cites "enemy resources" that report about drone trials organized by BRAVE1, a Ukrainian cluster for military technology development for the AFU. This confirms active UAF efforts in drone R&D. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Tactical Setbacks:
  • Widespread Civilian Casualties and Damage: RF deep strikes resulted in 13 confirmed fatalities and numerous injuries across multiple oblasts, including a new fatality in Odesa and injured in Vasylivskyi District, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy. A woman injured in Kherson. A 10-year-old child killed and 7 injured in Kramatorsk due to KAB strike on a residential building. Now 12 injured for Sloviansk/Kramatorsk. Significant damage to civilian infrastructure confirmed. Civilian infrastructure in Dobropillia also hit. Colonelcassad reports "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk/Izium. Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. Civilian gas worker killed in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: STERNENKO reports a woman was killed in Sumy due to a drone attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports RF attacked Sumy with drones in daylight, causing civilian injuries, highlighting continued need for medical and humanitarian aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports three injured, including two minors, in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) DeepState video alleges RF forces shot a local resident on a bicycle in Torske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Олексій Білошицький reports paramedics assisting a civilian in Sloviansk after a Russian attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing emergency responders aiding injured individuals in a damaged residential building in Sumy, confirming 1 fatality and 10 injured. This is a significant civilian casualty event. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports over two dozen attacks in Nikopol district throughout the day, using artillery and FPV drones, confirming continued civilian impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ASTRA reports a woman died and others were injured due to a massive Russian UAV strike in Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • AD Munitions Expenditure: High rate of AD engagements indicates critical expenditure of interceptor munitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Continued RF Aerial Penetration: Despite high interception rates, RF missiles and drones continue to penetrate UAF AD. The KAB strike on Kramatorsk and Dobropillia are clear examples. Ballistic missile threat for Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk (Samarskyi district). A reconnaissance UAV detected in Mykolaiv Oblast. RF continues to target UAF UAV C2, as seen in Chasiv Yar and Krasnoarmeysk. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs over southeastern Sumy Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast, and southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Colonelcassad's use of "Harpy" drones for strikes in Orlivka, Sumy Oblast, further demonstrates RF's ability to penetrate. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: РБК-Україна publishes a photo message stating that Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko claims up to 90% of strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this year were carried out by drones, highlighting the significant penetration of RF drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Unconfirmed RF Ground Advances: RF claims of opening new front in Kharkiv, breakthroughs in Malaya Tokmachka, capturing Bila Hora, and liberating Varachino, and now Hrushevske and Novotoretske, if verified, would represent significant tactical setbacks. RF claim of advances near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast, if verified, would also be a setback. RF claim of UAF surrender in Popov Yar, if verified, is a localized setback. Claims of Rosgvardia successes in Sumy Oblast against UAF BREM and Gvozdika. RF claims Russian reconnaissance entered Krasnoarmeysk. Narodnaya милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles near Dachne. (CONFIDENCE: LOW for breakthroughs, MEDIUM for new front, MEDIUM for Starytsia, MEDIUM for Popov Yar surrender, MEDIUM for Varachino, MEDIUM for Rosgvardia claims, HIGH for Krasnoarmeysk reconnaissance, HIGH for Hrushevske and Novotoretske as per RF/DeepState claims, HIGH for Dachne as per RF claims). NEW: Рыбарь channel publishes photo/video indicating "Russian infantry in Pokrovsk." While the video is ambiguous, the claim itself suggests potential RF infiltration or presence in the area, which would be a localized UAF setback. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for claim, LOW for definitive visual verification). Воин DV publishes video claiming to show drone footage of an AFU armored vehicle being engaged in Pokrovsk by AIRNOMADS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны publish video claiming fierce battles, increased pace of advance, and destruction of enemy equipment and personnel near Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: "Сливочный каприз" publishes video of a destroyed settlement with a person carrying a Russian flag, captioned "Konstantinovka - Belaya Gora," suggesting RF ground presence and tactical gains. If confirmed as RF occupation, this is a UAF setback. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Басурин о главном publishes video claiming "underground forces" are burning UAF SUVs from Kramatorsk to Kyiv, with footage of a UAF SUV burning after an attack. If these are genuine incidents caused by pro-RF elements, it represents a tactical setback for UAF logistical security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: РБК-Україна publishes a video featuring an expert discussing the map of possible Russian offensives, suggesting RF's capability to launch multi-directional offensives remains a threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Increased Risk to Western Aid Corridors: RF's expanded deep strike targeting of Western Ukraine implies growing need for enhanced security and hardening of logistical corridors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Putyvl Community Drone Strike: Civilian infrastructure in Putyvl community (Sumy Oblast) struck by RF drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Drone Losses: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports enemy shooting down more Ukrainian reconnaissance drones. Narodnaya милиция ДНР claims destruction of a "Baba Yaga" drone. NEW: Воин DV publishes drone video claiming the 305th Artillery Brigade used a Lancet loitering munition to strike a UAF Dana self-propelled howitzer, representing a loss of an SPG. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Civilian Friction (Mobilization): Unconfirmed report of "TCC bus attack" and the verified violent TCC detention in Chernihiv point to growing social friction. The shooting in Vasylkiv adds to a climate of internal security concerns. While convict mobilization is a necessity, its public reception needs monitoring. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Операция Z reports that Ukrainian MP Skorokhod admitted that TCC "beat mobilized people to death" across Ukraine, an RF information operation aimed at creating internal Ukrainian disunity. This directly impacts public sentiment regarding mobilization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO's commentary on potential legislation to undermine NABU/SAP independence indicates ongoing internal political challenges. Rada considering bill to limit NABU/SAP powers. NABU Director Krivonos called on Zelenskyy not to sign bill. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes photo messages showing the list of MPs who voted for the bill to limit the independence of NABU and SAP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes a video of a parliamentary session where the bill was voted on. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine provides a photo message and detailed explanation of draft law 12414 concerning NABU and SAP powers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns claim Zelenskyy has signed the law liquidating the independence of anti-corruption bodies, reinforcing a narrative that could undermine public trust. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 publishes a photo with the caption "🤔 Attack on anti-corruption activities or 'good intentions'?", indicating ongoing public and internal debate which can be a source of disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF DRG Ambush in Pokrovsk: Colonelcassad video confirms an ambush by RF DRG on a UAF pickup truck in Pokrovsk. New video from "Операция Z" and Alex Parker Returns further corroborates and highlights this aggressive DRG activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • KAB Strike on Sumy: RF strike on Sumy with KABs resulted in damage and 12 civilian injuries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia launched another strike on Sumy Oblast, resulting in power outages for some consumers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Loss of UAF Robotic Platform: Colonelcassad video shows a UAF robotic platform targeted and likely destroyed by an RF drone. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны also publish video of destruction of a robotic platform. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Civilian Risk in Zaporizhzhia Evacuation: TASS reports late evacuation notices in Zaporizhzhia Oblast from UAF may put civilians in active combat zones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Odesa Civilian Infrastructure Damage: Confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa due to RF UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Loss of D-20 Howitzer (Kherson): TASS reporting on the destruction of a UAF D-20 howitzer by RF FPV drones in Kherson Oblast represents a tactical loss. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Loss of UAF Artillery (South-Donetsk): Colonelcassad claim of destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit in South-Donetsk direction represents a tactical loss. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Disputed RF Drone Interception: "Два майора" claim of a Russian drone intercepting an enemy UAV is unverified and highly speculative. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Loss of UAF Unit (Dnipropetrovsk): TASS claims a UK-trained UAF unit was destroyed in Dnipropetrovets Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • UAF Personnel Loss (Sumy Direction): "Два майора" video showing FPV drone strike on a UAF soldier in Sumy direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Loss of UAF UAV C2: Colonelcassad's claim of destroying a UAF UAV command post near Chasiv Yar and MoD Russia's claim of destroying a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction represents a tactical setback. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Andriivka Civilian Displacement: Civilian testimonial indicates significant destruction and displacement in Andriivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Loss of Armored Vehicle/Personnel (Alexandrovgrad): RF drone footage from Воин DV claims destruction of UAF armored vehicles and personnel in Alexandrovgrad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Death of Civilian Prisoner: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the death of the oldest civilian prisoner, Oleksandr Markov (74), in Russian captivity. This will likely cause public outrage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Tactical Vehicle Incident: Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle, moving along a road, with one appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) during movement, this indicates a tactical setback or operational challenge for RF ground forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Lack of REB for Artillery: The 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade's artillery unit appealing for EW systems highlights a critical gap in protection against enemy drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF POW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes a video featuring a blindfolded individual, identified as a POW, in camouflage, being questioned. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Black Sea Gas Facilities Attack: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kirovohrad Oblast Strike (New): Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) claims a powerful strike on a UAF training ground in Kirovohrad Oblast. This, if confirmed, represents a significant setback for UAF training and force generation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson Boat Destruction (New): Военкор Котенок claims destruction of a Ukrainian boat with personnel in Kherson direction using a fiber-optic FPV drone, representing a loss of UAF maritime assets and personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Nikopol District Attacks (New): 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports over two dozen attacks in Nikopol district throughout the day, using artillery and FPV drones, indicating sustained RF pressure and UAF defensive challenges in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kamyansk Withdrawal (New): Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Defense Forces have withdrawn to the flanks at Kamyansk, indicating a tactical repositioning that could be a controlled withdrawal or a forced retreat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Tactical Setbacks for RF (reported by UAF):
  • Swedish Mercenary Killed: Colonelcassad reports RF forces liquidated a Swedish mercenary, Andreas Mikael Evert Broman. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Military Aircraft Impact: "Два майора" publishes a video showing a military aircraft with an apparent explosion or impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vessel Destruction (New): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes video showing a burning naval vessel, likely after a successful UAF attack, confirming significant kinetic success against RF maritime assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.3. Resource requirements and constraints

• Critical Air Defense Munitions: Most urgent requirement is accelerated resupply of AD interceptors, especially for ballistic and hypersonic missile defense. Reported $6 billion procurement gap highlights this. Netherlands' contribution to Patriot systems and €200M for interceptor drones is positive but needs to be expedited. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: РБК-Україна publishes a photo message stating that Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko claims up to 90% of strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this year were carried out by drones, highlighting the significant threat and resource strain on AD. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: РБК-Україна reports Germany will transfer two Patriot systems if they can be quickly replaced, highlighting conditional support and a potential constraint. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports Germany's willingness to transfer two Patriot systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Военкор Котенок reports German Defense Minister Pistorius is ready to quickly supply Kyiv with two Patriot systems, provided the US replaces them within 6-8 months. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Drones and Counter-Drone Capabilities: Ongoing urgent requirement for more drones (FPV and reconnaissance) for UAF units. Complementary REB means are critical. Appeals for drones underscore this need. The development of an AI-powered drone interceptor with Denmark is a positive long-term step. The 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade's artillery unit explicitly requesting EW systems highlights an immediate and critical need for counter-drone protection for frontline assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: STERNENKO reports a new batch of 417 drones delivered to the front line, indicating ongoing efforts to meet this requirement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS showcases the "Pomsta" Brigade of the DPSU using drone interceptors, indicating a specific counter-drone resource. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is crowdfunding for two copters for artillery reconnaissance for the 63rd Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAF drone development by BRAVE1 implies domestic capability is growing but may require resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Domestic Production Capabilities: President Zelenskyy's directive to increase Ukraine's share of domestic weapons production to 50% within six months indicates strategic shift. The introduction of Bohdana-BG howitzers is a positive step. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a video message about strengthening the front in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including President Zelenskyy's decision on Ukraine's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention (anti-personnel mines), stating daily production and delivery of 1,000-1,000 mine components, demonstrating UAF's adaptive and proactive defensive posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• International Financial Support: Continued and increased international financial support is vital, especially for AD systems and maintenance of armored vehicles (Netherlands €125M for F-16 maintenance). NATO's potential additional funding is significant. Participation in Ramstein confirms ongoing support. Ukraine will need at least $120 billion for defense next year. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Logistical Security: Increased targeting of Western Ukraine implies growing need for enhanced security and hardening of logistical corridors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Personnel Motivation/Well-being: Zelenskyy's emphasis on financial motivation suggests recognized need to boost morale. The TCC incidents highlight the need for continued oversight of mobilization practices. Convict mobilization signals a widening of the recruitment pool. Focus on military pensions indicates attention to welfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Financial Resources for Defense Procurement: Stated need for $6 billion is a direct and pressing financial constraint. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) DeepState reports Ukraine will need at least $120 billion for defense next year. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Aid for Civilian Casualties: Recent KAB strike on Sumy and UAV strike on Odesa and Kherson highlights ongoing need for humanitarian aid and resources for civilian recovery. The KAB strike in Kramatorsk and drone/KAB attacks on Dobropillia and civilian displacement from Andriivka further emphasizes the immediate and critical need for humanitarian aid and civilian protection. The killing of a gas worker in Kupyansk further underscores civilian vulnerability and humanitarian needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: STERNENKO reports a woman was killed in Sumy due to a drone attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports RF attacked Sumy with drones in daylight, causing civilian injuries, highlighting continued need for medical and humanitarian aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing emergency responders aiding injured individuals in a damaged residential building in Sumy, confirming immediate humanitarian aid requirements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Components for Domestic Drone Production: The GUR report on RF UAV components sourced from China indicates a need for UAF to monitor and potentially disrupt RF's access to critical foreign components. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• F-16 Maintenance Capacity: The receipt of first unique mobile complexes for F-16 maintenance addresses a critical long-term requirement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Economic Reform: РБК-Україна reports Svrydenko's primary task as PM is to "increase exports," which is a critical economic resource requirement. Colonelcassad states that the newly appointed PM Yulia Svrydenko's claim that corruption is exaggerated in Ukrainian society is a lie, indicating an attempt by RF to discredit Ukrainian economic reform efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Medical Support: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes multiple photo messages from a forum titled "Medical Front: experience, challenges, future" held in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, highlighting the need for continued focus and resources for military medicine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• EU Frozen Assets: РБК-Україна reports the EU wants to informally discuss the fate of frozen Russian assets. This could be a potential source of funding for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and disinformation campaigns

• Russian Federation (RF) Narratives:
  • Overwhelming Force & Ukrainian Weakness: RF amplifying scale of aerial attacks, especially Kinzhal strikes on Kyiv, to create sense of overwhelming force. Claims of UAF equipment and drone losses. RF also claiming UAF surrender in Popov Yar and capture of Varachino, and now Hrushevske and Novotoretske. RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight, including nine over Bryansk Oblast. WarGonzo maps indicate continued focus on these areas. Confirmed KAB strike on Kramatorsk and Dobropillia used to portray overwhelming force. Claim of UK-trained UAF unit destroyed in Dnipropetrovsk aims to undermine confidence. FPV drone strike on UAF soldier in Sumy direction highlights RF tactical lethality. MoD Russia's "Feniks" in action video promotes tactical drone prowess. Kotsnews reporting on "Harpies" hunting. Rosgvardia's claimed successes in Sumy Oblast. RF claims Izium, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk hit military objects. RF milbloggers actively question the effectiveness of Western AD. Alex Parker Returns' military recruitment videos aim to project strength. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing military vehicles moving on a road, with one appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) during movement, and uses it to frame a success. Colonelcassad's video on "Harpy" drones and MoD Russia's on Uragan MLRS are used to highlight RF's kinetic capabilities and successes. Басурин о главном's sharing of Tucker Carlson's "Russia won" statement directly supports this narrative. Сливочный каприз's chart on increased offensive pace also supports the narrative of RF strength. Colonelcassad publishes video claiming "exemplary work" of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 5th Guards Tank Brigade drone operators in destroying AFU armored vehicles and personnel near Alexandrovgrad. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS firing rockets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Воин DV publishes drone video claiming the 305th Artillery Brigade used a Lancet loitering munition to strike a UAF Dana self-propelled howitzer, further reinforcing the narrative of RF tactical successes and UAF losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Рыбарь channel publishing photo and video implying "Russian infantry in Pokrovsk," supporting MLCOA for continued RF ground pressure and infiltration in the area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes video claiming to show drone footage of an AFU armored vehicle being engaged in Pokrovsk by AIRNOMADS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Басурин о главном publishes a photo message with the caption "Our daredevil is everywhere!", showing a smiling Russian soldier with a weapon, implying widespread success and presence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 posts a video showing drone-guided strikes on what appear to be Ukrainian positions, portraying successful RF military actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны publish video claiming fierce battles, increased pace of advance, and destruction of enemy equipment and personnel near Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: "Сливочный каприз" publishes video of a destroyed settlement with a person carrying a Russian flag, captioned "Konstantinovka - Belaya Gora," used to claim RF control and success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Басурин о главном publishes video claiming "underground forces" are burning UAF SUVs from Kramatorsk to Kyiv, with footage of a UAF SUV burning after an attack, aimed at portraying UAF vulnerability to internal sabotage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Военкор Котенок claims destruction of a Ukrainian boat with personnel in Kherson direction using a fiber-optic FPV drone, used to highlight RF precision strike capability against UAF assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) claims a powerful strike on a UAF training ground in Kirovohrad Oblast, used to demonstrate RF strike effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS publishes video showing FPV drone operators from "Rubikon" center striking AFU armored vehicles and personnel, further reinforcing the narrative of RF tactical success and UAF losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Басурин о главном publishes a video showcasing the 'Omich' (Омич) robotic complex, highlighting RF's technological advancement and effective use of robotic systems for military purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора publishes video indicating drone operations and possible impact over water in Kherson direction, suggesting successful RF kinetic action. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a large explosion and secondary explosions in a semi-urban/rural area, characteristic of a missile strike or heavy artillery impact, demonstrating RF kinetic capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Victimhood: RF state media leveraging UAF drone attacks on Russian territory to portray Russia as victim. Amplified by TASS reporting on memorial for 5-year old boy in Kursk. The new civilian testimonial from Kursk Oblast and Mash on Donbas, and Andriivka, is a direct effort. TASS reports average of 400 UAF strikes on RF civilian objects per day. FPV drone attack in Belgorod, injuring two, further fuels this narrative. RF milblogger blaming UAF AD for civilian damage in Odesa is a direct information operation to shift blame. FSB reports and videos of alleged Ukrainian agents caught planning railway attacks further fuel this victimhood narrative. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. ASTRA reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. AV БогомаZ reports new "vile attacks" by Ukrainian Nazis. WarGonzo's commentary on Moscow airport drone attacks highlights public awareness of these incidents. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports three injured in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF strike, which will be leveraged to emphasize RF victimhood. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, reinforcing the narrative of external threats and justifying internal security measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on migrant crime in Kaluga Oblast, which could stir public resentment towards migrants. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ТАСС publishes videos showing flooded metro tracks at "Bagrationovskaya" and "Kuntsevskaya" stations due to heavy rain, causing service disruptions. Another video shows a flooded train station/underpass, used to show the "struggles" faced by the civilian population due to external/internal events. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ publishes multiple videos showing severe urban flooding in Moscow, with vehicles navigating deep water and commercial establishments affected. This is used by Ukrainian sources as counter-propaganda, but the base event (flooding) will be portrayed by RF as a natural disaster or external act, reinforcing victimhood. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA publishes videos showing severe urban flooding in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ASTRA publishes an image with the caption "In Belgorod Oblast, a civilian was injured as a result of a strike by the Armed Forces of Ukraine," reinforcing the victimhood narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Ukrainian Disunity/Corruption: RF sources heavily promoting narratives of internal corruption (NABU scandal – now claiming NABU loses Western "roof" due to Trump and Zelenskyy signed law liquidating anti-corruption bodies) and social friction (e.g., TCC and Romani incident, Syrsky's parents being treated in Moscow). The release of the POW interrogation video is a direct attempt to amplify perceived internal disunity. The dissemination of footage showing a violent TCC detention in Chernih by Colonelcassad is a direct and immediate RF information operation to exacerbate internal social tensions. TASS's claim of Latin American mercenaries fled Alexandrovgrad is intended to discredit foreign fighters. Bloomberg article by Mark Champion, amplified by TASS, on corruption potentially disrupting European weapon supplies. Операция Z's information operation about "traitors-Nazis from Russia" being handed over by Kyiv, with some committing suicide, reinforces this narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны report Western publications are again talking about Zelenskyy's authoritarianism after the curtailment of NABU powers, explicitly linking it to Western concerns. NEW: Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns claim Zelenskyy has signed the law liquidating the independence of anti-corruption bodies, reinforcing the narrative that the legislation has been enacted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z reports that Ukrainian MP Skorokhod admitted that TCC "beat mobilized people to death" across Ukraine, an RF information operation aimed at creating internal Ukrainian disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 publishes a photo with the caption "🤔 Attack on anti-corruption activities or 'good intentions'?", framing the debate around anti-corruption as a potential attack on it, which feeds into the disunity narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad states that the newly appointed PM Yulia Svrydenko's claim that corruption is exaggerated in Ukrainian society is a lie, continuing the "Ukrainian corruption" narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Ukrainian lawmakers have approved a law that will strip the country's anti-corruption bodies of independence, which Bloomberg indicates could undermine high-level bribery efforts. This is an external source confirming an RF narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Stability & Development: Propaganda focuses on internal stability, economic resilience, and infrastructural development. TASS promotion of Russia's participation in international cultural events. The lifting of flight restrictions at Samara airport and Kaluga airport. The reporting on Mariupol port operations. RF internal reporting on criminal cases, economic meetings, and internal security operations also serve to project a focus on stability and governance. RF milbloggers' sharing of Orthodox Christian traditions also works to foster internal unity. Rostov Oblast's focus on UAV development signals innovation. RF MoD proposed salary increase for military personnel aims to project positive conditions. The reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed to project stability. News about Moscow's urban development reinforces the normalcy narrative. Putin's toughening of foreign vessel access is presented as a measure for national security. TASS reports on RF AI development. Север.Реалии reports on "Spiritual-Moral Culture" in schools. The recovery of Winelab stores from a cyberattack is used to project resilience. The funeral of Yuri Kara and the Chechen cultural festival are used for normalization. TASS reports the new Moskvich-8 car is on sale for 2.98 million rubles. TASS reports the Sheremetyevo airport is organizing recreation zones for passengers. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. Новости Москвы reports scientists have proven a four-day work week without salary reduction improves employee well-being. TASS reports the State Duma has approved the transfer of data regarding migrant children enrollment in schools to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, framing this as a measure of control and order. TASS reporting on the death of a State Duma Deputy from illness is a part of this internal political framing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports actor Steven Seagal has left one of his last projects in Russia, which could be framed as a natural internal business decision. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы publishes a review of a Huawei MatePad Pro, indicating internal focus on technology and consumer goods. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Глеб Никитин posts positive news about historical real estate sales, aiming to project internal stability and economic activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad reports that the head of RF Digital Development Ministry, Maksut Shadayev, states Russia has fully deployed 5G networks in 45 regions. This promotes a narrative of technological advancement and stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы posts a video showing water puddles and cleaning operations inside a public building, suggesting a spill or leak. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы posts a video showing heavy rain and flooded streets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a video that is an advertisement for online gambling, which could be seen as a source of revenue or distraction in the domestic context. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video showing film director Igor Bogomolov, husband of Ksenia Sobchak, calling the war with Ukraine "the luck and happiness of our generation," and noting Putin awarded him the title "Honored Artist of Russia" the next day. This signals the use of cultural figures to bolster pro-war sentiment and justify the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports 517 flights were canceled at Moscow and St. Petersburg airports between July 19-22, affecting 75,000 passengers. This is a significant piece of information that challenges the narrative of stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports doctors in Voronezh saved a child, which serves as a normalization narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Historical Revisionism: Continued use of historical narratives to justify actions and demonize Ukraine. RF leveraging monument in Moldova to portray Ukraine as allied with Nazis. The cynical framing of Polish General Skrzypczak's death by RF milbloggers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of a book on "The Tricycle of Right-Bank Ukraine: Tsar, Nobility and People. 1793-1914," which is purely academic and historical but could be interpreted as an attempt to control the historical narrative around this region, given its past and present geopolitical significance. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) NEW: "Два майора" publishes a photo message containing a statement from the former Polish Land Forces Commander Skrzypczak, highlighting his calls to attack Belarus and Kaliningrad, used to vilify foreign military figures and reinforce the narrative of external threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews reports on the 81st anniversary of the defeat of "Galicia", likely referring to the 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS (1st Galician), used to reinforce historical narratives associated with Nazism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Kotsnews publishes images related to the "Construction of the Torpedo Stadium" in 1975, likely to evoke nostalgia and a sense of past achievement/stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "RF Tactical Success": Claims of ground advances (Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Malaya Tokmachka, Starytsia, Varachino, Krasnoarmeysk infiltration, Hrushevske, Novotoretske), effective DRG ambushes (Pokrovsk, Krasnoarmeysk), confirmed artillery destruction by FPV drones, and successful downing of UAF drones. Colonelcassad's claim of ELINT-driven UAF liquidation and destruction of a UAF UAV C2 highlights RF intelligence successes. New video of aggressive DRG activity in Pokrovsk and Krasnoarmeysk is being used. RF demining operations in Kharkiv and new fortifications in Luhansk are also highlighted. Rosgvardia's claimed destruction of a German BREM and Gvozdika. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone. Colonelcassad's use of "Harpy" drone strike video for Orlivka is direct propaganda of tactical success. MoD Russia's MLRS strike video also supports this. Colonelcassad publishes video claiming "exemplary work" of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 5th Guards Tank Brigade drone operators in destroying AFU armored vehicles and personnel near Alexandrovgrad. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS firing rockets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Воин DV publishes drone video claiming the 305th Artillery Brigade used a Lancet loitering munition to strike a UAF Dana self-propelled howitzer, showcasing a specific tactical success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Рыбарь channel publishing photo and video implying "Russian infantry in Pokrovsk," supports claims of RF ground presence in contested areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes video claiming to show drone footage of an AFU armored vehicle being engaged in Pokrovsk by AIRNOMADS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Басурин о главном publishes a photo message with the caption "Our daredevil is everywhere!", showing a smiling Russian soldier with a weapon, implying widespread success and presence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 posts a video showing drone-guided strikes on what appear to be Ukrainian positions, portraying successful RF military actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны publish video claiming fierce battles, increased pace of advance, and destruction of enemy equipment and personnel near Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: "Сливочный каприз" publishes video of a destroyed settlement with a person carrying a Russian flag, captioned "Konstantinovka - Belaya Gora," used to claim RF control and success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Басурин о главном publishes video claiming "underground forces" are burning UAF SUVs from Kramatorsk to Kyiv, with footage of a UAF SUV burning after an attack, aimed at portraying UAF vulnerability to internal sabotage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Военкор Котенок claims destruction of a Ukrainian boat with personnel in Kherson direction using a fiber-optic FPV drone, used to highlight RF precision strike capability against UAF assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Операция Z (via Военкоры Русской Весны) claims a powerful strike on a UAF training ground in Kirovohrad Oblast, used to demonstrate RF strike effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS publishes video showing FPV drone operators from "Rubikon" center striking AFU armored vehicles and personnel, further reinforcing the narrative of RF tactical success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Басурин о главном publishes a video showcasing the 'Omich' (Омич) robotic complex, highlighting RF's technological advancement and effective use of robotic systems for military purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора publishes video indicating drone operations and possible impact over water in Kherson direction, suggesting successful RF kinetic action. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV reports RF forces active in Krasnoarmeysk direction, claiming to disable Starlink communications for 25th Airborne Brigade, portraying success in EW. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a large explosion and secondary explosions in a semi-urban/rural area, characteristic of a missile strike or heavy artillery impact, demonstrating RF kinetic capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cynical/Demoralizing: RF milbloggers frequently employ cynical or mocking language. The cynical framing of the Polish General's death is a new, potent example. Colonelcassad uses derogatory term "Narkofyurer" (Narcodictator) for Zelenskyy. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦's video showing a wounded Ukrainian soldier with a cynical caption ("Motorcycle for the wheelchair, pup. Don't forget to attach it") is a highly cynical and demoralizing attempt. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) posts "Röhönaurua! 😂😂😂" (Roaring laughter!) with an unspecified image, indicating ongoing cynical/mocking content. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: НгП раZVедка provides a cynical and mocking commentary on the death of Polish General Waldemar Skrzypczak, attempting to demoralize the Ukrainian side and their international supporters. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ publishes multiple videos showing severe urban flooding in Moscow, with vehicles navigating deep water and commercial establishments affected. The captions contain anti-Russian slogans, suggesting Ukrainian information operations, and thus RF will likely counter with their own cynical narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Exploiting Perceived US Weakness: RF milbloggers attempting to exploit perceived "slow adoption" of advanced drone tactics by US military. TASS amplifies commentary critical of US support for Ukraine. TASS publishing the Jeffrey Sachs interview. TASS reporting on the US Congress Epstein case and the death of Polish General Skrzypczak. TASS also reports Trump plans to withdraw the US from UNESCO. TASS reports on Milan Mayor Sala's corruption suspicions. TASS reporting on Trump administration seeking SpaceX alternative for missile defense suggests a narrative of US internal challenges. РБК-Україна publishes a photo message implying Trump is seeking alternatives to SpaceX. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Trump, by rejecting Ukraine's NATO membership, swayed it towards negotiations with Russia. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception and suggest US/Ukraine disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a photo message highlighting the US integration of unmanned surface vessels (USVs) into naval special forces tactics, likely to implicitly compare or highlight perceived threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Trump is likely to visit China soon, and did not exclude talks with Putin during this visit. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception and suggest US/Ukraine disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Trump called on the US Department of Justice to investigate Obama for manipulating intelligence data related to US elections and Russia. This is a direct attempt to leverage US internal political divisions for RF's information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal RF Dissident Counter-Narrative: RF milbloggers actively countering perceived "traitors." (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) TASS reports investigators opened a criminal case against an internet channel administrator for extortion and public justification of terrorism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes video claiming police officers who leaked information to Baza have been detained, along with five Baza employees including the editor-in-chief. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора reports detention of a Telegram channel author in Volgograd for extortion and public justification of Nazism, reinforcing the narrative of combating internal extremism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the chief editor of the Ryazan online publication "Svoy Kolokolny" (Svoy kolokolnya) Komarov was detained in an extortion case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports a local resident was detained in Veliky Novgorod for planning to join the "Russian Volunteer Corps", a Ukrainian organization banned in Russia. The video shows what appears to be an interrogation, suggesting intelligence/security operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора publishes video claiming a "PLO-OPG" (presumably criminal group) was exposed in Blagoveshchensk, involved in harassing locals, which will be leveraged to highlight RF's internal security capabilities against criminal elements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports that journalist Yuri Dud has been arrested in absentia and put on international wanted list for violating "foreign agent" law. This is part of the ongoing crackdown on internal dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Alex Parker Returns states that the court in Moscow заочно (in absentia) arrested journalist Yuri Dud. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports blogger Dud is заочно (in absentia) accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports Yuri Dud is заочно (in absentia) accused of purposefully collecting information on RF military and military-technical activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Projection of Public Support: RF channels publishing content designed to project widespread public support