Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 221411Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats have been lifted; localized Shahed UAV threats persist for Lviv Oblast, Southern Ukraine, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi districts, also Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, heading NW), and Kharkiv Oblast. Confirmed civilian casualties from recent strikes are 14 fatalities and multiple injuries across Ivano-Frankivsk (4), Kyiv (9 injured, 1 fatality), Chernivtsi (4), Zaporizhzhia (2), Dnipropetrovsk (2), Sloviansk (4), Kherson (7 injured), and Kramatorsk (1 fatality, 7 injured, now 12 injured for Sloviansk/Kramatorsk combined). Rescue and emergency services are actively engaged across multiple oblasts. Confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa due to RF UAV attack, including administrative building, vehicles, and residential windows. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Northern Ukraine (Kyiv Oblast): Continued Air Defense (AD) engagement against Shahed UAVs over Kyiv. Kinetic impacts on residential and commercial buildings, and a metro entrance. One fatality and nine injuries reported in Kyiv. Firefighters are actively engaged; kindergarten fire confirmed. Over fifteen direct hits on various objects in Kyiv overnight. RF milblogger Colonelcassad claims three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, with video showing multiple explosions and fires, and claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv. New ballistic missile threat declared for Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports a localized internal security incident involving a shooting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Eastern Ukraine: Initial cruise missile group detected over Kharkiv Oblast, moving towards Poltava Oblast. Kharkiv's Kyivskyi district hit by 12 UAV strikes overnight. RF milblogger "Воин DV" claims bomber strikes on UAF forward positions in Yanvarskyi supporting 36th Army advance. New group of RF UAVs reported from Luhansk Oblast moving towards Kharkiv Oblast. Kharkiv Oblast governor confirms strikes on Kharkiv city and 10 settlements. DeepState reports RF advances in Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, and near three other villages in Donetsk Oblast. MoD Russia video claims liberation of Popov Yar. RF milbloggers claim a new RF front opened in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian military operations confirmed near Belaya Gora, Donetsk, with claims of capturing foreign weapons. Colonelcassad shares map showing continued positional changes on the front line. UAF National Guard "Khartia" brigade drone operators claimed destruction of nearly a platoon of Russian occupiers in Kharkiv Oblast. A tractor driver was blown up by a mine in Balakliia community, Kharkiv Oblast. At least 54 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast affected by enemy strikes over the past week. STERNENKO claims Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment holding back Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast. Liveuamap Source reports recent clashes at Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Gulyaypole, and Kherson directions. Ukrainian forces repelled 23 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. FPV drone strike on Russian UAZ-452 ('Bukhanka') vehicle confirmed. Perovske, Zolochiv community, Kharkiv Oblast, shelled. DeepState reports liquidation of RF sabotage groups in Pokrovsk. RF milbloggers claim RF DRG activity in Pokrovsk, with video suggesting an ambush on a UAF vehicle. Threat of aviation munitions for Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. Clashes confirmed yesterday in Toretsk, Sieversk, Lyman, Novopavlivka, Kramatorsk, Kupyansk, Orikhiv, South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), and Pokrovsk directions. Ukrainian forces repelled 22 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. DeepState analysis indicates RF army occupied Hrushevske and advanced near Voskresenka, Orikhove, Mayak and Zatyhka (formerly Suvorove) in Donetsk Oblast. TASS and MoD Russia claim RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske in DNR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: TASS reports RF forces advanced near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast, dislodging UAF units from several positions. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports renewed activity in Kharkiv direction, with video showing drone-guided strikes on targets, indicating continued RF pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Popov Yar, Donetsk Oblast: TASS reports a group of Ukrainian servicemen surrendered in Popov Yar, DNR. This claim, if verified, indicates localized UAF tactical setbacks. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • South-Donetsk Direction: Colonelcassad publishes video claiming successful destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit by 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, "Vostok" Grouping. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast: ASTRA, RBC-Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 report a direct RF KAB strike on a residential building, resulting in the confirmed death of a 10-year-old child and 7 injured. Visuals confirm a multi-story residential building on fire. New information reports 12 injured after aviation strikes on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk Oblast: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade drone operators created a "kill zone" in Donetsk Oblast, destroying multiple enemy vehicles and personnel with FPV drones. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video of 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade using FPV drones to destroy two pieces of RF mechanized equipment during an attempted assault, confirming successful engagement against armored targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast: RBC-Ukraine provides photo/video on RF drone and KAB attacks on Dobropillia, highlighting continued RF kinetic impacts on civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Belgorod Oblast (RF): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video claiming HIMARS strikes on an RF S-300 air defense battery, a "Nebo-M" radar, and a 5H66M "Big Bird" radar. This, if verified, is a significant UAF success. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) TASS reports three injured, including two minors, in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA also reports three injured, including two teenagers, in Belgorod Oblast after shelling. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Velyka Novosilka - Shevchenko: "Сливочный каприз" publishes photo messages likely indicating continued engagements in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnolimanskoye Direction: "Два майора" publishes a video showing RF unit thanking for humanitarian aid, indicating continued RF presence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar: Colonelcassad provides video footage claiming the destruction of a UAF UAV command post on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnoarmeysk direction: MoD Russia video claims destruction of a UAF UAV control post. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports RF forces are forming a wide encirclement of Krasnoarmeysk in DNR after liberating Novotoretske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sloviansk/Kramatorsk: Colonelcassad publishes video claiming "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk, with a large plume of dark smoke. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnoarmeysk: Басурин о главном and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publish videos claiming Russian reconnaissance and DRG activity in Krasnoarmeysk, with video suggesting an ambush on a UAF vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Alexandrovgrad: Воин DV publishes drone footage claiming destruction of armored vehicles and personnel by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 5th Guards Tank Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novotoretske, DNR: TASS, MoD Russia, Операция Z, and Kotsnews all claim RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnoarmeysk Direction: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes video claiming the downing of a heavy "Baba Yaga" drone by AIRNOMADS operators. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Torskoye: Оперативний ЗСУ publishes drone video claiming to show a "military crime" by RF forces targeting a civilian on a bicycle, followed by artillery strikes, with claims of multiple enemy neutralizations. NEW: DeepState publishes video alleging RF forces shot a local resident on a bicycle in Torske, followed by artillery strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Orlivka, Sumy Oblast: Colonelcassad claims use of "Harpy" drones by RF UAV units to destroy temporary deployment points and vehicles of the UAF 104th Territorial Defense Brigade near Orlivka, Sumy Oblast. Video shows residential buildings impacted by explosions and fires. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Temirovka, Zaporizhzhia Region: MoD Russia claims Uragan MLRS hit AFU positions near Temirovka, Zaporizhzhia region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pokrovsk (Donetsk Oblast): Рыбарь channel publishes a photo and video indicating "Russian infantry in Pokrovsk." The video, likely from a drone, shows a road intersection with a damaged/abandoned vehicle and several figures, suggesting RF ground presence or recent activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes video claiming to show drone footage of an AFU armored vehicle being engaged in Pokrovsk by AIRNOMADS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast, Izium: Colonelcassad publishes video showing residents of Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, visually monitoring a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike on a Ukrainian "occupation formation" object. This implies the strike occurred on July 22, 2025, and caused damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast, Oskil: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes drone footage showing the Khartia brigade's engagement against enemy personnel and a fuel depot in the Oskil region. RF flags visible on targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk Oblast (New KAB Launches): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports repeated KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv/Sumy Border (New KAB Launches): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches on the border of Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Central Ukraine: Missile group (up to 10) towards Myrhorod district, then passing Poltava towards Kremenсhuk. New missile group from Sumy Oblast also moved towards Poltava Oblast. Another group from Cherkasy Oblast diverted, heading westward into Vinnytsia Oblast. Kryvyi Rih reports "situation controlled." Aftermath of attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast confirmed. TASS claims RF forces used FABs against UAF reserve positions in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovets Oblast. New threat of strike UAVs for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi districts). UAV reported on Poltava Oblast, heading southwest. Threat of enemy strike UAVs in Zolotoniskyi and Cherkaskyi districts of Cherkasy Oblast. One fatality in Vinnytsia from 16 July strike. Explosions in Kropyvnytskyi and Kryvyi Rih amid ballistic missile threat. Kirovohrad Oblast attacked by ballistic missiles. Nikopol district attacked by artillery, MLRS "Grad," and FPV drones. НгП раZVедка reports on aftermath of strike on preparatory camp in Kropyvnytskyi. UAV threat reported in Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, heading northwest. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), with possible AD activity. Missile danger for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi district) and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: TASS claims a UK-trained UAF unit was destroyed. This is an unverified RF claim. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: РБК-Україна reports an infrastructure object damaged due to a drone hit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ballistic Missile Threat: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports a threat of ballistic missile use from the East. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports ballistic missile threat from Northeast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports ballistic threat from East. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poltava Oblast: The Office of the Prosecutor General reports a domestic law enforcement event regarding counterfeit perfumes/cosmetics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Western Ukraine: Cruise missiles confirmed from Vinnytsia Oblast to Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Main group entered Ternopil Oblast, Chernivtsi Oblast (AD engaging, 4 fatalities confirmed), and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast (explosions, damage, casualties). Kinzhal hypersonic missile launched from MiG-31K tracked towards Starokostiantyniv, then Ternopil/Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts, with confirmed explosions and casualties. Mayor of Ivano-Frankivsk confirmed infrastructure damage. Three Shahed UAVs approaching Ivano-Frankivsk reported intercepted. Damage to kindergarten and university in Lviv. Damaged residential buildings (20 private houses) in Kamianets-Podilskyi district, Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Odesa Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a Shahed UAV recovered from the shore near Odesa. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Southern Ukraine: New Shahed UAVs detected in Black Sea, heading towards Pivdenne/Koblevo (8 inbound). RF strike on Vasylivskyi district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulted in 2 fatalities, 1 wounded. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reports 14 UAVs shot down (previously 7). Missile threat active for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF 44th Artillery Brigade successfully targeted an RF 2A65 Msta-B. Colonelcassad claims missile strike on Ukrainian gas platform in Black Sea. TASS reports parts of a downed UAF UAV fell on a kindergarten and Ministry of Emergency Situations in Berdyansk. Launches of KABs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast confirmed. UAV threat for Kherson, Zaporizhzhia (Nikopolskyi district), and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts from the south. 4 new Shahed UAVs from Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Pavlohrad. New groups of Shahed UAVs from Black Sea heading towards Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts. Odesa Oblast AD engaged 10 Shahed UAVs over Black Sea; 12 Shahed UAVs confirmed approaching Odesa from the sea. Explosions heard in Odesa. CONFIRMED CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE IN ODESA DUE TO RF UAV ATTACK, with photo evidence of destroyed vehicles, debris, and extensive damage. RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU further confirm extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Odesa. One fatality in Odesa due to the attack (confirmed by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS), and one injured (STERNENKO). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson Oblast: Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 4 Russian army assaults. TASS reports on Russian Group "Dnepr" UAV calculation with FPV drones destroying a Ukrainian D-20 howitzer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mariupol: TASS reports that the Mariupol port is operating with sufficient staff for current workload. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vasylivskyi District, Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has posted photo messages showing a wounded man from an "enemy attack." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson: ASTRA reports one woman injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Southern Direction: Сили оборони Півдня України reports continued RF aviation strikes, FPV drone use, and Shahed UAV attacks on frontline settlements and UAF positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Ballistic missile threat alert issued. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues immediate alert for Zaporizhzhia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: Air Force reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV detected. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Shkolny Airfield, Odesa Oblast: Военкор Котенок claims Ukrainian AD targeted high-rise buildings and local parking during "Geranium" attack, an RF attempt to shift blame. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Nova Kakhovka: WarGonzo reports two fatalities from a drone strike on a minibus in Nova Kakhovka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Gas Facilities (Black Sea): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Temporary flight restrictions at Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky airports have been lifted. Restrictions also lifted at Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, and Kaluga airports. RF milbloggers gloat about Kyiv impacts. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claims 18 UAVs shot down over Moscow; RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight (previously 23 over Moscow, and a total of 74 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight). Falling UAV debris on railway station in Rostov Oblast delayed over 50 passenger trains. Fire at Kamianolomni railway station, Rostov Oblast confirmed. Belgorod governor reports 2 civilian injuries from UAF UAV attack. Flooding reported in Moscow streets. Fires reported in Rostov and Moscow oblasts after UAV hits. TASS reports a Moldovan national detained in Ryazan confessed to transmitting data on RF Armed Forces to Kyiv. TASS reports a man detained in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD facilities. TASS reports RF MoD claims 14 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kaluga, Bryansk, Tula, and Oryol Oblasts. Crimean Bridge queue reached 2000 vehicles. TASS reports foreigners can enter RF without RuID registration. TASS reports the new Moskvich-8 car is on sale for 2.98 million rubles. TASS reports the Sheremetyevo airport is organizing recreation zones for passengers. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. ASTRA reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Gennady Starunov, a Russian "Teacher of the Year 2022," lecturer from Moscow school #1164, and author of Telegram channel "Frontline Notes," was liquidated in Ukraine. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov-on-Don: TASS reports a UAV attack was repelled in Rostov-on-Don, Millerovo, Donetsk (Rostov Oblast), and Azov district, with no casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tula Oblast: TASS reports RF air defense destroyed three Ukrainian UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov Oblast UAV Development: TASS reports plans to make Rostov Oblast a leader in UAV development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novosibirsk: TASS reports the detention of a young man for hacking information resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Samara Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports a drone attack on Samara Oblast, RF. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) ASTRA provides video confirming the Novosuybyshevsk oil refinery fire in Samara Oblast after a UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Bryansk Oblast: Брянская область. Губернатор reports "nine more" Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed overnight. TASS reports that searches are being conducted at the home of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko, now confirmed detained on charges of abuse of power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow: TASS reports the death of Irina Podnosova, the Chairman of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation, with Yuri Ivanenko assigned duties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kabardino-Balkaria: ASTRA and Operatyvnyi ZSU report an emergency situation declared due to a mudslide and damaged bridge. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow Development: Новости Москвы reports plans for over 800 sports and 1500 children's playgrounds to be built this year. Новости Москвы also reports that scientists have proven a four-day work week without salary reduction improves employee well-being. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Crimea: TASS reports three individuals were detained for desecrating a monument. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tyumen: "Операция Z" reports the detention of a migrant for threatening a teenager. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Law Enforcement: TASS reports billionaire Matsotsky appealed his in absentia arrest in a bribery case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • FSB Activity: FSB reports it thwarted activities of three suspects aiding Ukrainian special services. Colonelcassad confirms three accomplices detained for preparing terrorist attacks. Photos show their correspondence, weapons, and arsons. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow: ASTRA reports security forces detained Dmitry Kisiev, head of the headquarters of former presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF MoD Corruption: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports new criminal cases against former Deputy Minister of Defense Pavel Popov for multi-million ruble bribes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novorossiysk: TASS reports over 20 apartments damaged by a domestic gas explosion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • St. Petersburg: ASTRA and Север.Реалии report two foreign nationals detained near FSB building for dancing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Foreign Vessel Access: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Putin has toughened rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poland General's Death: TASS, Colonelcassad, and Alex Parker Returns report the death of Polish General Waldemar Skrzypczak. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF MFA Statements: TASS reports RF MFA states RF significantly expanded list of EU representatives and EU institutions banned from entering Russia. TASS also reports "Western countries continue to use Ukraine as a tool to wage war against Russia." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Media Raids: TASS, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, and Север.Реалии report police and OMON conducted searches at "Baza" publication's editorial office and the editor-in-chief's apartment. Alex Parker Returns claims the editor-in-chief was arrested due to illegal dissemination of restricted information. TASS also provides video showing the situation at the Baza office. Операция Z reports a criminal case for exceeding authority has been opened against police officers in Moscow who leaked information, and searches are ongoing at the office of a Telegram channel. TASS reports investigators detained not only the editor-in-chief of Baza, Trifonova, but also several other employees for questioning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes video claiming police officers who leaked information to Baza have been detained, along with five Baza employees including the editor-in-chief. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • IT Military Deferral: TASS reports that the acceptance of applications for IT deferrals from military service has begun. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pensioner Treason Case: ASTRA reports a pensioner from Izhevsk sentenced to 15 years for treason but released due to health. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Supreme Court Memorial: TASS reports a memorial service for Irina Podnosova was held. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Yuri Kara Funeral: TASS reports and provides video of the funeral of film director Yuri Kara in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Transbaikal Region: ASTRA reports a teenager claiming torture after detention for forest arson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow Drone Facility Attack: РБК-Україна reports a car belonging to the head of a company manufacturing drones for occupiers was burned in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Roskomnadzor: TASS reports Roskomnadzor blocked 56,000 resources with extremist materials. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Law on Extremist Materials: TASS reports State Duma adopted law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns reinforces this, stating the Duma approved fines up to 5,000 rubles for searching/viewing extremist materials via VPN, and up to 500,000 rubles for advertising VPN services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the State Duma has adopted amendments related to requirements for owners of audiovisual services and social networks regarding blocking films that lack distribution certificates or discredit Russian spiritual and moral values. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Families of SVO Fighters: TASS reports State Duma allowed widows of SVO fighters to use their cars until inheritance is issued. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Second Child Credit Holidays: Басурин о главном reports Russian families with a second child will receive 1.5 years of credit holidays. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • St. Petersburg (Internal Security): TASS reports security forces conducting operations at the Mikhailovsky Theater. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) This operation appears related to a film crew and cultural event, not military action. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF State Duma: TASS reports the State Duma has approved the transfer of data regarding migrant children enrollment in schools to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports State Duma Deputy Mikhail Tarasenko (United Russia) has died from illness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the Duma adopted an amendment fining citizens for disclosing state secrets in media. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes video showing a formal session, identified by a watermark as '@vv_volodin', discussing "labor migrants." This appears to be a state Duma session. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the State Duma has adopted several laws aimed at preventing embezzlement and withdrawal of funds, focusing on increasing the effectiveness of combating such crimes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Messengers: TASS reports that blocking foreign messengers in Russia is not planned; it's about compliance with Russian requirements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Internal Affairs: Операция Z shares an image with text about "traitors-Nazis from Russia" being handed over to Moscow by Kyiv, with some committing suicide. This is an RF information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Armenian Insiders: "Два майора" reports "Armenian insiders" claim security forces will soon work with businessmen close to Pashinyan who conduct business in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kaliningrad "Conqueror" Dies: Старше Эдды reports the death of the "conqueror" of Kaliningrad, a cultural/historical reference. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow Airport: WarGonzo questions what is happening at Moscow airport during a "carpet plan" (drone attack), highlighting continued public concern over drone attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Trump Administration & PRO: TASS reports the Trump administration is looking for an alternative to Musk's SpaceX for creating a "Golden Dome" missile defense system. РБК-Україна publishes a photo message implying Trump is seeking alternatives to SpaceX. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donbas Drought: Mash на Донбассе provides photo messages of the dried-up Khanzhenkovo reservoir, which supplied water to cities in DNR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volunteer Aid (RF forces): Colonelcassad publishes a video about collecting aid for a 4th vehicle convoy along the KatyaValya line, indicating continued reliance on civilian support for their forces. The video shows a large quantity of new dirt bikes/motorcycles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow News (Internal): Новости Москвы provides a video about "what you can't google now," likely a commentary on internet restrictions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы reports that registration fees for vehicles and driver's licenses will increase from September 1, 2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Population Decline: TASS reports the global population will begin to decline from the 2040s, a challenge for the world economy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS publishes a photo message stating China's population may significantly decrease to 500-700 million by the end of the century due to a halved birth rate, as stated by Oreshkin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Public Wi-Fi: TASS reports the State Duma proposed a program for public Wi-Fi access points across Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Omsk Scam: TASS reports a scam in Omsk where 2.9 million rubles were stolen from an 18-year-old under the guise of flower delivery, with part of the money allegedly sent to aid Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sochi Detainee: ASTRA reports a Sochi resident arrested for "discrediting" the RF army was transferred to a psychiatric hospital after an alleged suicide attempt. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kursk Oblast: TASS reports the military court sentenced Lithuanian Bartkevichius to 23 years in absentia for desecrating a military grave and other terror-related crimes in Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора reports the acting governor of Kursk Oblast reports RF AD engaged Ukrainian targets in the sky and no casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sporting Event: TASS reports Russian synchronized swimmers took second place at the World Championship, the first time in 27 years they didn't win gold. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Beer Production: TASS publishes a photo message claiming Russia has displaced Germany from the top five largest beer producers in the world. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Law Enforcement Detention: Север.Реалии reports that detentions related to the case of leaking official information occurred in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Krasnodar Krai, and Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Azerbaijan Claims: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Azerbaijan has submitted evidence to Russia of torture and murder of two Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia: TASS reports mass events have been suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats of assassination attempts on servicemen by Ukrainian special services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volgograd Oblast: Два майора reports a Telegram channel author in Volgograd was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Steven Seagal: TASS reports actor Steven Seagal has left one of his last projects in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kaluga Oblast: Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on a crime involving migrant children in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sumy Oblast: RF conducted a strike on Sumy community's Kovpakivskyi district. Two explosions heard, likely from KABs, impacting residential area and causing damage to apartment building. Three injured, now increased to 12. Emergency services on site. 5 multi-story buildings, a shopping center, and 18 cars damaged. Threat of aviation munitions for Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. Colonelcassad reports "Anvar" unit operating in the border areas of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, providing drone footage of UAF positions, indicating continued RF reconnaissance and targeting efforts. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs are heading towards southeastern Sumy Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast (near Mena, Koryukivka), and a UAV from northeast towards Sumy, with possible AD activity. KAB launches confirmed on Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy: RBC-Ukraine and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publish video and photo evidence showing the aftermath of KAB strikes, confirming three injured, including a child. NEW: STERNENKO reports a woman was killed in Sumy due to a drone attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports RF attacked Sumy with drones in daylight, damaging a medical facility and playground. A woman and a child were injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a video showing a street scene in Sumy, with a Ukrainian flag overlay and Sumy regional emblem, with dialogue in Russian, likely for propaganda purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy Direction: "Два майора" publishes FPV drone footage claiming to target a UAF soldier. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports a high-speed target heading towards Sumy from Kursk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports direction of target towards Khotin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Varachino, Sumy Oblast: Операция Z and "Воин DV" claim Russian army liberated Varachino, pushing UAF from Russian borders in Sumy Oblast. This is an unverified RF claim. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Sumy Oblast: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy UAVs in northern Sumy Oblast with possible AD activity. NEW: Air Force reports a likely reconnaissance UAV heading north towards Sumy city. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. Means for their destruction have been engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kryvyi Rih: Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 22.07.25. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Andriivka: Военкор Котенок shares civilian testimonial from displaced person, highlighting destruction and humanitarian impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Krasny Liman: Сливочный каприз publishes photo messages regarding Krasny Liman - Zelyonaya Dolina. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Odesa: Colonelcassad publishes multi-panel image related to Odesa, likely showing areas affected by strikes or for future targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Crimean Shores: "Два майора" publishes video showing military-style inflatable boat with personnel, indicating maritime operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Novomikhailovka: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of a woman mourning her son, a Russian SMO participant who died storming Novomikhailovka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Grushevske, Donetsk Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF army occupied Hrushevske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Dachne, Donetsk Oblast: Народная милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Toretsk Direction: Олексій Білошицький provides video captioned "Adventures of patrolmen in Toretsk direction🤙". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Lugansk (LNR): Рыбарь reports on an incident in Lugansk, without further details. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Lithuania-Belarus Border: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes graphic on Lithuanian military exercises near Belarus border. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast: STERNENKO reports a gas worker, Igor Goncharenko, was killed by Russians in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Zaporizhzhia Front: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes photos showing continued reinforcement of the Zaporizhzhia front, with military personnel and equipment (drones, radio equipment). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a video message about strengthening the front in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including increasing the defense fund to 3 billion hryvnias, constructing an anti-drone road on the Orikhivskyyi highway, and plans for over 200 km of such infrastructure. Mentions a meeting with the Minister of Defense and President Zelenskyy's decision on Ukraine's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention (anti-personnel mines), stating daily production and delivery of 1,000-2,000 mine components. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Pokrovsk: Рыбарь channel publishes videos claiming to show Russian infantry in Pokrovsk. One video shows an aerial view of a road intersection with a damaged/abandoned vehicle and several figures, suggesting RF ground presence or recent activity. Another video appears to show a casual civilian drive with an injured arm visible, context unclear but low military significance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes drone footage showing an armored vehicle being engaged in the Pokrovsk area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Moscow: Север.Реалии publishes a video showing a protest in Moscow, with an activist being detained by police while holding a sign criticizing censorship and the war. Pro-Kremlin activists are attempting to disrupt the protest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukraine (Internal Affairs): Стрелков Игорь Иванович reports Ukrainian authorities have mandated UOC to declare a break with ROC by August 18, or face prohibition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kaluga Oblast: Alex Parker Returns reports a crime involving migrant children in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Ukraine General: Night operations provide low visibility, favoring RF UAV and missile saturation tactics. Kharkiv Oblast expects worsening weather (heavy rains, thunderstorms), which could impact ground operations. Oleg Synegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, reports significant weather deterioration is possible in the near future. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Heavy rainfall in Moscow Oblast indicates adverse weather conditions. Bridge collapse in Moscow region due to heavy rains confirmed, cutting off villages. Significant flooding confirmed in Moscow. TASS reports 15 "Tavriya" trains delayed in communication with Crimea. Train delays at Paveletsky Station due to weather. All trains to Black Sea resorts on July 22 will follow schedule. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kabardino-Balkaria: ASTRA and Operatyvnyi ZSU report a mudslide in Tyrnyauz and a damaged bridge support due to severe flooding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donbas Drought: Mash на Донбассе provides photo messages of the dried-up Khanzhenkovo reservoir, which supplied water to cities in DNR. This indicates a significant drought, impacting water supply for civilian populations and potentially military operations in the area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Illegal Logging (Ukraine Carpathians): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports large-scale illegal logging in Ukrainian Carpathians caused 55.8 million UAH in damages. This is an environmental issue, not directly war-related. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF:
  • Air Defense (AD): Fully engaged nationwide against multi-vector RF aerial assault, including Tu-95MS launched cruise missiles (24 confirmed), ballistic missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic missiles from MiG-31K, and OWA UAVs (Shahed, 426 confirmed). AD actively tracked multiple missile groups across multiple oblasts. Kyiv AD actively engaged approximately 10 inbound Shaheds and multiple missiles. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast AD shot down 14 UAVs (previously 7). President Zelenskyy reports UAF AD destroyed over 20 missiles and the "overwhelming majority" of drones (344 of 623 total aerial targets). Southern Defense Forces report 18 Shaheds destroyed in their operational zone. Air Force reports 224 targets shot down/suppressed, with 203 UAVs not reaching targets due to loss of localization/REB. Germany to provide 5 Patriot systems and ammunition. Norway ready to provide significant additional funding for Ukraine's air defense. UAF AF reports UAV threat for Kharkiv Oblast. Sili Oborony Pivdnya Ukraїny video shows Ukrainian soldiers operating a ZU-23 anti-aircraft gun mounted on a truck countering Russian Shahed drones in Mykolaiv area, claiming over 30 air targets neutralized. Air Defense is active in Odesa, engaging Shahed UAVs. Netherlands will make a significant contribution to US Patriot AD systems. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), with possible AD activity. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video of 31st Brigade anti-aircraft drone systems successfully attacking Russian drones in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. As of 06:00Z, 26 enemy UAVs have been shot down/suppressed, with 7 more failing to reach targets due to loss of localization/REB. Air Force confirmed 42 Russian UAVs attacked overnight. Enemy UAV in Black Sea, course to Odesa, AD engaged. UAV from northeast towards Sumy, with possible AD activity. Reconnaissance UAVs on northeast of Chernihiv and southeast of Kryvyi Rih. NEW: Air Force issues alert for Sumy, stating a likely reconnaissance UAV is approaching from the north. NEW: Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. Means for their destruction have been engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Services: Actively engaged across multiple oblasts. Minister of Internal Affairs reports 15 fires due to Russian shelling, 13 liquidated. KMVA confirms rescue and emergency work ongoing nationwide. Cleanup and emergency services are working in Sumy. Confirmed images and videos from RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU show State Emergency Service (DSNS) personnel actively engaged in firefighting and damage assessment operations in Odesa. DSNS Ukraine confirms three injured, including a child, in Sumy. STERNENKO confirms one person injured in Odesa. DSNS and local authorities are actively engaged in Kramatorsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Control Measures: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats lifted, localized drone alerts persist. Public warnings for shelter ongoing. Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) providing updates; Lukyanivska metro station now fully reopened. Brig. Gen. Hennadiy Shapovalov appointed new commander of UAF Ground Forces. Ukraine plans to open four new embassies. Zelenskyy states new negotiations with Russia planned for Wednesday in Istanbul. Odesa Oblast Military Administration calls for residents to take shelter. ZAPORIZHZHIYA OBLAST MILITARY ADMINISTRATION HAS LIFTED AIR RAID ALERT. Kryvyi Rih mayor states situation is controlled. Generall Staff continues daily photos promoting nationwide moment of silence. RBC-Ukraine reports President Zelenskyy introduced NSDC decision on moratorium on baseless checks and interference by state bodies in business activities. Rustem Umierov will lead the Ukrainian delegation for negotiations with Russia, as stated by Zelenskyy. Rada considers bill to limit NABU/SAP powers today. Zelenskyy states focus on prisoner exchanges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports on the moratorium on business inspections, highlighting its implications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы reports on a proposal in the State Duma to allow pregnant women and mothers with children to park in handicapped spaces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Security Services: SBU and OGP conducting special operation to "neutralize Russian influence on NABU." Detention of NABU detective head (Ruslan Magamedrasulov) suspected of aiding RF. Over 70 searches conducted. SBU initiated comprehensive check on adherence to state secrets legislation in SAP. General Director of "Forests of Ukraine" served suspicion for illegal enrichment. Detention of NABU elite unit "D-2" employee suspected of spying for Russian special services confirmed. President Zelenskyy emphasized need for legal architecture to hold Russia accountable for war. Ukraine returned a teenager forcibly taken from Mariupol to Russia. G7 Ambassadors alarmed by NABU scandal. Ukrainian police helped neutralize pro-Russian hacker network NoName057(16). A court has remanded NABU employee Viktor Husarov into custody without bail. An employee of NABU's "most elite closed unit," suspected of treason, has had a pre-trial detention measure chosen. NABU Director Krivonos called on Zelenskyy not to sign bill limiting NABU and SAP powers. Prosecutor General's Office reports new facts of restricted information leaks from NABU. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора publishes a photo message stating the General Prosecutor's Office is systematically holding accountable individuals working for the enemy, highlighting the exposure and sentencing of "traitors." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes photo messages about an international police special operation that identified a "pseudominer" of facilities in Czechia, Slovakia, and Latvia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Foreign Volunteers: 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" claims 2,000 Colombians fighting in its ranks. TASS claims UAF deployed a platoon of "Latin American mercenaries" to Aleksandrovgrad, DNR, and then claims they fled. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing Ukrainian soldiers, identified as being of Latin American origin, participating in combat training exercises on Sumy region, with their commander stating 2,000 Colombian servicemen have come to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Resource Requirements: UAF National Guard's "Rubizh" brigade crowdfunding for "destroyed property and equipment." Zelenskyy emphasizes need for increased domestic production of weapons and drones (50% within six months). Ukraine needs $6 billion to cover gap in weapons procurement. Britain transferred $200 million of $940 million in air defense assets and artillery shells. Urgent fundraiser for drones for UAF 32nd Steel Brigade. French companies ready to start drone production in Ukraine. Canada will allocate $14.6 million USD for maintenance of Ukrainian tanks and finance Ukrainian defense industry. Canada will allocate $15 million for Leopard 2 tank repairs. NATO can provide additional funding for Ukrainian army. Netherlands provides €200M for interceptor drones and €125M for F-16 maintenance. Ukraine will need at least $120 billion for defense next year. РБК-Україна publishes a video appeal from the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade's artillery unit, requesting Electronic Warfare (EW) systems for combat tasks and safe logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: STERNENKO provides photo and video messages showing a new batch of 417 drones delivered to the front line, and military personnel unboxing mortar rounds/artillery shells and expressing gratitude for the support, indicating ongoing resupply efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Training: UAF 61st OMBr tank crews conducting rigorous training. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes multiple photos and captions about the role of a sergeant in the military, emphasizing training, motivation, and ideological conviction, likely promoting professional development and morale within the UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF 63rd Mechanized Brigade reports liquidation of 33 RF personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chernihiv: Colonelcassad reports TCC personnel violently detaining a man, indicating aggressive mobilization efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UK Sanctions: The UK has introduced new sanctions against 135 tankers belonging to Russia's "shadow fleet." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Losses: General Staff of UAF provides estimated total combat losses for RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade: Video suggests active counter-drone operations by the 47th Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Domestic Production: Domestic 155-mm Bohdana-BG howitzers have entered service with the 40th Separate Artillery Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Psychological Operations: 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України released a video appealing to RF soldiers to surrender. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Corruption: President of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine suspended. Investigation into illegal coal mining completed. Official of "Forests of Ukraine" notified of suspicion for illegal enrichment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Drone Recruitment: DeepState publishes a recruitment video for the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade's unmanned systems unit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Convict Mobilization: Approximately 9500 convicts have joined the AFU. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukraine-Denmark Drone Interceptor: Ukraine and Denmark are developing an AI-powered drone interceptor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Prosecutor Investigation: Investigations launched into attacks on Odesa, Donetsk, and Sumy regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Currency Exchange Rates: Exchange offices lowered the USD rate and raised the EUR rate. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ramstein Meeting: Generals Staff publishes photo messages indicating participation of Ukrainian Minister of Defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Soldier with Weapon: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes photos aiming to boost morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chief of General Staff at Diplomatic Event: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes photos of Major General Andrii Hnatov speaking at a plenary session for heads of foreign diplomatic institutions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pension for Military Personnel: Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes information on pensions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • F-16 Project: Повітряні Сили ЗС України publishes video showcasing an F-16 fighter jet and mentions a "new project." RBC-Україна reports Air Force received first unique mobile complexes for F-16 maintenance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zelenskyy Meeting: Zelenskiy / Official publishes photo messages regarding a meeting on Ukraine's negotiation results and prisoner exchanges. NEW: Zelenskiy / Official posts a video of President Zelenskyy interacting with military personnel and civilians, presenting awards, reinforcing national unity and recognition of heroes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also publishes the same video from President Zelenskyy, further emphasizing the message of Ukrainian heroes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Occupant Targeting: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing aeroreconnaissance of the 4th battalion of the 101st Brigade targeting a Russian occupant. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes drone video showing a munition drop impacting a group of five Russian occupiers in tall grass, resulting in at least one fatality and multiple serious injuries, attributed to the 1st Separate Special Purpose Detachment of the Omega CSP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • STERNENKO Tactical Action: STERNENKO provides video from "Sanitary Zone Flying Skull" showing drones on fiber optics flying into enemy positions, destroying a car, motorcycle, and enemy property and ammunition. NEW: STERNENKO publishes drone footage showing an engagement using fiber-optic drones against an enemy target, resulting in an explosion and fire, indicating ongoing UAF tactical engagements and effective use of advanced drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Friendly Civilian Infrastructure: Олександр Вілкул publishes multiple photo messages related to thermal modernization of education facilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Military Administration (OTU "Kharkiv"): ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts a message stating "Treason is needed by the enemy, but the traitor is needed by no one!" ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes drone footage showing the Khartia brigade's engagement against enemy personnel and a fuel depot in the Oskil region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Front Reinforcement: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes photos showing reinforcement efforts at the Zaporizhzhia front, including military personnel and the distribution of drones and communication/EW equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a video message about strengthening the front in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including increasing the defense fund to 3 billion hryvnias, constructing an anti-drone road on the Orikhivskyyi highway, and plans for over 200 km of such infrastructure. Mentions a meeting with the Minister of Defense and President Zelenskyy's decision on Ukraine's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention (anti-personnel mines), stating daily production and delivery of 1,000-2,000 mine components. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Medical Front Forum: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes multiple photo messages from a forum titled "Medical Front: experience, challenges, future" held in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating focus on military medicine and support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • FPV Storm: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes a video titled "FPV-storm from Slobozhansky paratroopers!", showing drone footage of an attack on a military target (possibly a vehicle or structure) in a wooded area, with explosions and smoke plumes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NABU/SAP Legislation: STERNENKO publishes photo messages showing the list of MPs who voted for the bill to limit the independence of NABU and SAP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes a video of a parliamentary session where the bill was voted on. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RUF:
  • Deep Operations (UAV/Missile/Aviation Munitions): RF executing high-volume, multi-wave, multi-domain deep strike campaign. Included Tu-95MS strategic bomber launches (24 cruise missiles), sustained Shahed UAV attacks (426 confirmed), and re-engagement of MiG-31K for Kinzhal hypersonic missile launches against Western Ukraine and Kyiv (3 Kinzhals). Colonelcassad claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv. TASS claims RF forces used FABs against UAF reserve positions in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovets Oblast. KABs on Donetsk and Sumy Oblast. MoD Russia claims grouped strike with high-precision long-range air, ground, and sea-based weapons against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, and Sumy city. MoD Russia video shows Kub loitering munitions. Alex Parker Returns explicitly states intent to use "Geranium" (Shaheds) on frontline due to scaled production. Kotsnews publishes video claiming "Harpies are hunting." MoD Russia video shows drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Aviation: RF airports lifted temporary restrictions. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claims 18 UAVs destroyed over Moscow; RF MoD claims 35 UAVs over RF territory were destroyed overnight. "Воин DV" claims bomber strikes in Yanvarskyi. TASS confirms Vnukovo airport resumed normal operations. TASS reports RF MoD claims 14 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kaluga, Bryansk, Tula, and Oryol Oblasts. Millerovo military airfield in Rostov Oblast attacked by drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a video showing a military aircraft, likely a fighter jet, in flight during low-light conditions, with apparent explosion or impact. NEW: Fighterbomber publishes video showing a military helicopter flying low over a field, likely conducting reconnaissance or attack operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Operations (Popov Yar, Bila Hora claim, Malaya Tokmachka claim): RF Ministry of Defense claims ground forces liberated "Popov Yar." DeepState reports RF advances in Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, and near three other villages in Donetsk Oblast. MoD Russia provides video of servicemen from 102nd Motorised Rifle Regiment on Popov Yar. RF milbloggers claim RF has opened a new front in Kharkiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares thermal imagery video indicating activity on Chasiv Yar direction. Басурин о главном video confirms Russian military operations near Belaya Gora, claiming capture of foreign weapons. Liveuamap Source reports multiple clashes across Eastern axes. Colonelcassad claims a Russian breakthrough in Malaya Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. MoD Russia video shows T-72B3M tank crew destroying AFU stronghold near Zeleny Gai. STERNENKO video reports Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment holding back Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad claims assault troops of 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade advancing in Bila Hora area. Colonelcassad claims enemy is complaining about RF using lightweight 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from North Korea. DeepState analysis indicates RF army occupied Hrushevske and advanced near Voskresenka, Orikhove, Mayak and Zatyhka (formerly Suvorove) in Donetsk Oblast. TASS and MoD Russia claim RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske in DNR. Narodnaya милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles near Dachne. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: TASS reports RF forces advanced near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast, dislodging UAF units from several positions. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Popov Yar, Donetsk Oblast: TASS reports a group of Ukrainian servicemen surrendered. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • South-Donetsk Direction: Colonelcassad provides video footage of 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade's reconnaissance working in South-Donetsk direction, claiming destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pokrovsk: "Операция Z", WarGonzo, and Alex Parker Returns publish videos claiming RF DRG activity, with video suggesting an ambush on a UAF vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Рыбарь channel publishes a photo and video indicating "Russian infantry in Pokrovsk." The video, likely from a drone, shows a road intersection with a damaged/abandoned vehicle and several figures, suggesting RF ground presence or recent activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes video claiming to show drone footage of an AFU armored vehicle being engaged in Pokrovsk by AIRNOMADS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Varachino, Sumy Oblast: Операция Z and "Воин DV" claim Russian army liberated Varachino. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: Colonelcassad publishes a video showing RF engineering-road platoon personnel engaged in demining operations in "liberated territory." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Luhansk Oblast: TASS reports that RF forces have built new fortifications and observation posts near Chervona Dibrova. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tactical Drone Operations: MoD Russia provides video showing "Feniks" (Phoenix) drone in action. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Воин DV publishes drone video claiming to show the 305th Artillery Brigade using a Lancet loitering munition to strike a UAF Dana self-propelled howitzer, followed by additional fire from a "Hyacinth" artillery system. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes video claiming "exemplary work" of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 5th Guards Tank Brigade drone operators in destroying AFU armored vehicles and personnel near Alexandrovgrad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar: Colonelcassad provides video footage claiming the destruction of a UAF UAV command post on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Belgorod Oblast: ASTRA reports two people injured by an FPV drone attack on a vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Eastern Ukraine: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Izium, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk were hit by RF strikes on military objects. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Armored Personnel Carrier Deployment: TASS publishes video showing an RF armored personnel carrier (APC) maneuvering. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle, moving along a road, with one appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) during movement, captioned: "Вывалился. Быть добру!" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Control Measures: RF maintained temporary flight restrictions, now being lifted. RF actively promoting narrative of successful counter-UAV measures. RF Prime Minister Mishustin announced ~180 billion rubles for border crossing point repairs. Moldovan national detained for transmitting data on RF Armed Forces to Kyiv. Man detained in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD facilities. Colonelcassad shares a photo of a monument dedicated to "Hitler's allies" in Moldova, accompanied by text criticizing it. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Operations: "Операция Z" reports the Russian warship "Boykiy" escorted the tanker "General Skobelev" and the dry cargo ship "Sparta" from the Baltic Sea through the North Sea and English Channel to the Atlantic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Affairs: The Khabarovsk Krai Police has published photo messages detailing a criminal case regarding hooliganism. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Economic Affairs: TASS reports Prime Minister Mishustin arrived in Chita to hold a meeting on grain exports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Religious Propaganda: "Операция Z" has published videos promoting Orthodox Christian traditions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Hacking Activity: TASS reports the detention of a young man in Novosibirsk for hacking information resources. ASTRA reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. TASS reports investigators opened a criminal case against an internet channel administrator for extortion and public justification of terrorism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора reports the author of a Volgograd Telegram channel was detained for extortion and public justification of Nazism, indicating continued RF internal security measures against online dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Slovakia Gas: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Slovakia plans to receive up to 100% of its gas from Russia next year. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security: "Два майора" discusses the sentencing of Azerbaijani natives involved in organizing illegal migration. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Старше Эдды discusses the need for strict prohibition on migrant family members entering Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Political/Legal: TASS reports the death of Irina Podnosova, the Chairman of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation. TASS confirms the cause of death was cancer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports the funeral of film director Yuri Kara in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad reports the Duma adopted an amendment fining citizens for disclosing state secrets in media. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the State Duma has adopted several laws aimed at preventing embezzlement and withdrawal of funds, focusing on increasing the effectiveness of combating such crimes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Negotiations: TASS reports Peskov stated that the discussion of draft memorandums between Moscow and Kyiv will be the topic of negotiations in Istanbul. TASS also reports the Kremlin expects the new round of direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations to take place this week. TASS reports Peskov stated that Moscow and Kyiv need to work a lot before discussing prospects for a summit meeting. Colonelcassad publishes Peskov's statements on negotiations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dagestan, Russia: TASS reports 4 people, including 2 children, died in a car accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Milblogger (Culture): Народная милиция ДНР publishes a video on #КультураДНР, likely for internal morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Milblogger (Technology): Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition publishes a video on Russia's need for advanced technologies. NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition calls for help with civilian engineering equipment at the front, indicating a logistical gap. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Tu-160: Fighterbomber publishes video of a Tu-160 strategic bomber flying at low altitude. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Folk Group: TASS publishes video of "Buranovskie Babushki" stating they are not afraid of "Myrotvorets." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • MLRS Barrage: MoD Russia publishes a video of Uragan MLRS hitting AFU positions near Temirovka, Zaporizhzhia region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS firing rockets, with a caption "220 millimeters of unreal emotions!", indicating its use in combat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • St. Petersburg Theater: TASS video shows a street scene in front of the Mikhailovsky Theater in St. Petersburg, with a film crew. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tucker Carlson Interview: Басурин о главном shares a video clip of Tucker Carlson claiming Russia has "won" the confrontation with the West in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Military Offensive Pace: Сливочный каприз shares a chart titled "Pace of offensive operations of the Russian Armed Forces in the NWO zone. Advancement of the Russian Armed Forces, km² per day" showing an increase in daily advances in 2024-2025 compared to 2024. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Motorcycle Supplies: Colonelcassad publishes video showing a large quantity of new dirt bikes/motorcycles, implying significant logistical acquisition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Population Decline: TASS reports the global population will begin to decline from the 2040s, a challenge for the world economy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS publishes a photo message stating China's population may significantly decrease to 500-700 million by the end of the century due to a halved birth rate, as stated by Oreshkin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Public Wi-Fi: TASS reports the State Duma proposed a program for public Wi-Fi access points across Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Omsk Scam: TASS reports a scam in Omsk where 2.9 million rubles were stolen from an 18-year-old under the guise of flower delivery, with part of the money allegedly sent to aid Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sochi Detainee: ASTRA reports a Sochi resident arrested for "discrediting" the RF army was transferred to a psychiatric hospital after an alleged suicide attempt. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Polish Call to Leave RF: Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны report Poland is calling its citizens to leave Russia. Военкор Котенок also reports Poland warning its citizens to leave RF territory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes a photo message stating Poland is urging its citizens to leave Russia by all possible means. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • US Unmanned Surface Vessels (USV): "Два майора" publishes a photo message highlighting the US integration of unmanned surface vessels (USVs) into naval special forces tactics. While ostensibly about US capabilities, RF milbloggers often use such content to implicitly compare or highlight perceived threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Prisoner of War: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes a video featuring a blindfolded individual, identified as a POW, in camouflage, being questioned in a wooded area. The yellow tape over the eyes is consistent with Ukrainian POW protocols. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Beer Production: TASS publishes a photo message claiming Russia has displaced Germany from the top five largest beer producers in the world. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Law Enforcement Detention: Север.Реалии reports that detentions related to the case of leaking official information occurred in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Krasnodar Krai, and Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Azerbaijan Claims: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Azerbaijan has submitted evidence to Russia of torture and murder of two Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia: TASS reports that mass events have been suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats of assassination attempts on servicemen by Ukrainian special services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volgograd Oblast: Два майора reports a Telegram channel author in Volgograd was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Steven Seagal: TASS reports actor Steven Seagal has left one of his last projects in Russia, indicating a possible decline in his public role within Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kaluga Oblast: Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on a crime involving migrant children in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend" and criticizing Russian authorities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Trump on Ukraine/NATO: TASS reports Trump, by rejecting Ukraine's NATO membership, swayed it towards negotiations with Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.4. Recent Additions and Updates

• Kramatorsk/Sloviansk Civilian Casualties (Updated): ASTRA and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report 12 injured after aviation strikes on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Media Raids (Updated): TASS confirms security forces seized equipment and documentation during searches at Baza's editorial office in Moscow. TASS reports СК completed searches. TASS reports investigators detained not only the editor-in-chief of Baza, Trifonova, but also several other employees for questioning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA publishes a video showing security personnel escorting Baza employees, including the editor-in-chief, after searches. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes video claiming police officers who leaked information to Baza have been detained, along with five Baza employees including the editor-in-chief. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Two Baza employees were released without charges, but the editor-in-chief and two colleagues remain detained. ASTRA also confirms the release of two employees. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Moscow Drone Facility Attack (New): Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report a car belonging to the head of a company manufacturing drones for occupiers was burned in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Legislation (New): ASTRA, ТАСС, and Север.Реалии report the State Duma adopted a law on fines for searching "extremist" content and transmitting subscriber numbers/login data. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Duma adopted an amendment fining citizens for disclosing state secrets in media. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns reinforces this, stating the Duma approved fines up to 5,000 rubles for searching/viewing extremist materials via VPN, and up to 500,000 rubles for advertising VPN services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the State Duma has adopted amendments related to requirements for owners of audiovisual services and social networks regarding blocking films that lack distribution certificates or discredit Russian spiritual and moral values. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the State Duma has adopted several laws aimed at preventing embezzlement and withdrawal of funds. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Theatre Search (New): TASS reports security forces conducting operations at the Mikhailovsky Theater in St. Petersburg. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF SVO Spouses Benefits (New): TASS reports the State Duma adopted amendments for benefits for common-law wives of deceased SVO fighters. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Donbas Drought (New): Военкор Котенок shares a photo report on the absence of water in Donbas. Mash на Донбассе provides photo messages of the dried-up Khanzhenkovo reservoir. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Zaporizhzhia Reconstruction (New): Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes video on continued reconstruction efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Presidential Award (New): Kadyrov_95 reports Putin awarded State Duma Deputy Adam Delimkhanov a Presidential Certificate of Honor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Turkey's Expectation on Negotiations (New): TASS reports Turkey expects dialogue to continue after Istanbul talks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• NABU/SAP Legislation (Updated): РБК-Україна reports controversial draft law No.12414, limiting NABU/SAP powers, has been sent to the president for signature. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes photo messages showing the list of MPs who voted for the bill to limit the independence of NABU and SAP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes a video of a parliamentary session where the bill was voted on. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine provides a photo message and detailed explanation of draft law 12414 concerning NABU and SAP powers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Lavrov Statement (New): TASS reports Lavrov called "anti-Russian plans" in Europe very alarming. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sumy KAB Launch Confirmation (New): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches on Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Orlivka, Sumy Oblast (New): Colonelcassad claims use of "Harpy" drones to destroy UAF 104th Territorial Defense Brigade positions and vehicles near Orlivka, Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Temirovka, Zaporizhzhia (New): MoD Russia claims Uragan MLRS hit AFU positions near Temirovka, Zaporizhzhia region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF State Duma (New): TASS reports the State Duma has approved the transfer of data regarding migrant children enrollment in schools to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. TASS reports State Duma Deputy Mikhail Tarasenko (United Russia) has died from illness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Игорь Артамонов also reports the death of Mikhail Vasilyevich Tarasenko, State Duma Deputy from Lipetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes video showing a formal session, identified by a watermark as '@vv_volodin', discussing "labor migrants." This appears to be a State Duma session. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Tucker Carlson Interview (New): Басурин о главном shares a video clip of Tucker Carlson claiming Russia has "won" the confrontation with the West in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Offensive Pace (New): Сливочный каприз shares a chart titled "Pace of offensive operations of the Russian Armed Forces in the NWO zone. Advancement of the Russian Armed Forces, km² per day" showing an increased pace for 2024-2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Military Supply (New): Colonelcassad publishes video showing a large quantity of new dirt bikes/motorcycles, likely for military use. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kupyansk Civilian Casualty (New): STERNENKO reports a gas worker killed by Russians in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Population Decline (New): TASS reports the global population will begin to decline from the 2040s, a challenge for the world economy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS publishes a photo message stating China's population may significantly decrease to 500-700 million by the end of the century due to a halved birth rate, as stated by Oreshkin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Public Wi-Fi (New): TASS reports the State Duma proposed a program for public Wi-Fi access points across Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Omsk Scam (New): TASS reports a scam in Omsk where 2.9 million rubles were stolen from an 18-year-old under the guise of flower delivery, with part of the money allegedly sent to aid Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sochi Detainee (New): ASTRA reports a Sochi resident arrested for "discrediting" the RF army was transferred to a psychiatric hospital after an alleged suicide attempt. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sumy Drone Attack (New): RBC-Ukraine reports RF attacked Sumy with drones in daylight, damaging a medical facility and playground. A woman and a child were injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes a video showing a street scene in Sumy, with a Ukrainian flag overlay and Sumy regional emblem, with dialogue in Russian, likely for propaganda purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO reports a woman was killed in Sumy due to a drone attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Polish Call to Leave RF (New): Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны report Poland is calling its citizens to leave Russia. Военкор Котенок also reports Poland warning its citizens to leave RF territory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes a photo message stating Poland is urging its citizens to leave Russia by all possible means. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF Omega Special Forces Strike (New): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes drone video showing a munition drop impacting a group of five Russian occupiers in tall grass, resulting in at least one fatality and multiple serious injuries, attributed to the 1st Separate Special Purpose Detachment of the Omega CSP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Lancet Strike on Dana SPG (New): Воин DV publishes drone video claiming to show the 305th Artillery Brigade using a Lancet loitering munition to strike a UAF Dana self-propelled howitzer, followed by additional fire from a "Hyacinth" artillery system. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kharkiv Oblast, Izium Shahed Strike (New): Colonelcassad publishes video showing residents of Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, visually monitoring a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike on a Ukrainian "occupation formation" object on July 22, 2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Police Case (New): TASS reports investigators opened a criminal case against an internet channel administrator for extortion and public justification of terrorism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Dnipropetrovsk Medical Forum (New): 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes multiple photo messages from a forum titled "Medical Front: experience, challenges, future" held in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• International Police Operation (New): Оперативний ЗСУ publishes photo messages about an international police special operation that identified a "pseudominer" of facilities in Czechia, Slovakia, and Latvia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF Anti-Personnel Mine Production (New): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a video message about strengthening the front in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including President Zelenskyy's decision on Ukraine's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention (anti-personnel mines), stating daily production and delivery of 1,000-2,000 mine components, demonstrating UAF's adaptive and proactive defensive posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• FPV Storm from Slobozhansky Paratroopers (New): Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes a video showing an FPV drone attack on a military target, attributed to Slobozhansky paratroopers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Citizen Dissident Detention (New): Север.Реалии publishes a video showing a protest in Moscow, with an activist being detained for criticizing censorship and the war. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF Reconnaissance UAV Engagements (New): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. Means for their destruction have been engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Nova Kakhovka Civilian Casualties (New): WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Black Sea Gas Facilities Attack (New): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Beer Production (New): TASS publishes a photo message claiming Russia has displaced Germany from the top five largest beer producers in the world. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Law Enforcement Detention (New): Север.Реалии reports that detentions related to the case of leaking official information occurred in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Krasnodar Krai, and Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Air Force Military Aircraft (New): "Два майора" publishes a video showing a military aircraft, likely a fighter jet, in flight during low-light conditions, with apparent explosion or impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Azerbaijan Torture Claims (New): Оперативний ЗСУ reports Azerbaijan has submitted evidence to Russia of torture and murder of two Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Affairs Legislation (New): TASS reports the State Duma has adopted a law to refuse distribution certificates for films that lack distribution certificates or discredit Russian spiritual and moral values. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukraine Internal Affairs (New): Стрелков Игорь Иванович reports Ukrainian authorities have mandated UOC to declare a break with ROC by August 18, or face prohibition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• EU Frozen Assets Discussion (New): РБК-Україна reports the EU wants to informally discuss the fate of frozen Russian assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• China Asset Masking (New): Рыбарь publishes photo messages claiming China is masking US assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia (New): TASS reports mass events have been suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats of assassination attempts on servicemen by Ukrainian special services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Volgograd Oblast (New): Два майора reports a Telegram channel author in Volgograd was detained on suspicion of extortion and public justification of Nazism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Steven Seagal (New): TASS reports actor Steven Seagal has left one of his last projects in Russia, indicating a possible decline in his public role within Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kaluga Oblast (New): Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on a crime involving migrant children in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend" and criticizing Russian authorities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kharkiv Oblast Weather (New): Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports significant weather deterioration is possible in the near future. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF Zelenskyy Video (New): Zelenskiy / Official posts a video of President Zelenskyy interacting with military personnel and civilians, presenting awards, reinforcing national unity and recognition of heroes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also publishes the same video from President Zelenskyy, further emphasizing the message of Ukrainian heroes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Military Helicopter (New): Fighterbomber publishes video showing a military helicopter flying low over a field, likely conducting reconnaissance or attack operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Civilian Engineering Equipment (New): Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition calls for help with civilian engineering equipment at the front, indicating a logistical gap. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade (New): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video of 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade using FPV drones to destroy two pieces of RF mechanized equipment during an attempted assault, confirming successful engagement against armored targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Trump on Ukraine/NATO (New): TASS reports Trump, by rejecting Ukraine's NATO membership, swayed it towards negotiations with Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Strategic Drone/Missile/Aviation Munitions Strikes (Sustained, Adaptive, CRITICAL VOLUME & DEPTH, Now Multi-Warhead, WIDE GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE, Hypersonic Threat Resurfaced, Enhanced Saturation, FAB Use, NEW KINZHAL ON KYIV, Continued KAB use, Confirmed KAB on Kramatorsk, "Harpies" and Krasnoarmeysk UAV C2 targeting, Confirmed "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk/Izium, Orlivka strike by "Harpy" drones, Uragan MLRS strike on Temirovka, Civilian Casualties in Nova Kakhovka, Gas Facilities Attack, Repeated KAB launches in Donetsk/Kharkiv/Sumy): RF continues to demonstrate an extremely high capability for widespread, high-volume, multi-vector aerial attacks. The confirmed use of Tu-95MS strategic bombers for cruise missile launches (24 missiles), alongside continued massed Shahed drone attacks (426 total), and the re-engagement of MiG-31K for Kinzhal ballistic missile use indicates a sustained and robust deep strike capability. Their ability to simultaneously target Northern, Eastern, Central, and significantly Western Ukraine demonstrates coordination and resource availability. The confirmed use of X-101 with cluster munition warheads in Chernivtsi represents an escalation in lethality. The claimed use of FABs on UAF reserves in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates continued air-to-ground precision strike capability. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, confirming the capability to use hypersonic missiles against the capital. Colonelcassad also claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv. MoD Russia video shows Kub loitering munitions, detailing capabilities and warhead size. RF has adapted to use KABs against Sumy, Dobropillia and Kramatorsk. Continued use of strike UAVs against Eastern Dnipropetrovsk (Samarivskyi district), Poltava Oblast, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. The confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa indicates RF willingness to hit urban centers without specific military targets, or a failure of precision targeting. Ballistic missile threat confirmed for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and now Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi district). Kotsnews reporting on "Harpies" and their kinetic effect on a village, indicating a new, potent loitering munition or PGMs. MoD Russia also claims destruction of a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad's claim of "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk and associated smoke plume indicates continued widespread use of Shaheds against various targets. Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. Старше Эдды publishes drone video showing an FPV drone strike on a building, followed by a fire, and the Ukrainian flag on a damaged structure. Colonelcassad's video confirming "Harpy" drone use in Orlivka, Sumy Oblast. MoD Russia's video confirms Uragan MLRS hit AFU positions. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS firing rockets. WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tactical Drone Capabilities (Enhanced, Counter-Drone, FPV Precision): The reported destruction of a UAF D-20 howitzer in Kherson by an RF FPV drone ("Tuman") demonstrates RF's continued and effective tactical integration of drones for precision engagements against UAF artillery assets. The new focus on Rostov Oblast becoming a leader in UAV development, with military tech transfer to civilian applications and expanded production, highlights RF's strategic intent to massively scale its drone capabilities and industrial base. The FPV drone strike on a UAF soldier in Sumy direction and two injured in Belgorod by FPV drone further demonstrates precision targeting capabilities. MoD Russia's video of "Feniks" drone in action further confirms active development and deployment of tactical drones for reconnaissance and kinetic effects. Colonelcassad's claim of destroying a UAF UAV command post near Chasiv Yar indicates continued RF counter-drone capabilities. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights counter-drone capabilities. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's drone footage from Chasiv Yar direction indicates continued tactical drone operations. Воин DV's video claiming destruction of armored vehicles and personnel in Alexandrovgrad by 14th Guards Spetsnaz and 5th Guards Tank Brigade further emphasizes RF's advanced tactical drone integration for kinetic effects. Narodnaya милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles near Dachne, potentially with drones. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports the downing of a heavy "Baba Yaga" drone in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Nova Kakhovka drone strike, as per WarGonzo, shows RF drone strike capabilities against ground targets. Colonelcassad's video on "Harpy" drones confirms their tactical deployment for strikes on personnel and vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Воин DV publishes drone video claiming the 305th Artillery Brigade used a Lancet loitering munition to strike a UAF Dana self-propelled howitzer, followed by additional fire from a "Hyacinth" artillery system. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare (Aggressive, Psychological, and Exploitative, Adaptive, Expanding Scope): RF continues to use its military actions to bolster its narrative. Messaging from milbloggers directly aims to terrorize the population and undermine Ukrainian morale, while simultaneously attempting to project overwhelming force and futility of Ukrainian resistance. Dissemination of claimed UAF equipment losses (e.g., Bradley BMP) and drone losses ("Baba Yaga" drones), including the destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit in South-Donetsk direction and a D-20 howitzer in Kherson, and a UAF UAV command post, and AFU armored vehicles near Dachne, further reinforce this narrative. RF state media leverages UAF drone attacks on Russian territory to portray Russia as a victim and justify its actions. RF sources promote narratives of internal corruption and social friction within Ukraine (now specifically claiming NABU loses Western "roof" due to Trump). Propaganda focuses on internal RF stability and development. Continued use of historical revisionism. Claims of ground advances (Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Malaya Tokmachka, Starytsia, Varachino, Hrushevske, Novotoretske, Krasnoarmeysk infiltration) and effective DRG ambushes in contested areas (Pokrovsk, Krasnoarmeysk) are heavily publicized. RF milbloggers employ cynical/mocking language to demoralize Ukrainian audiences. RF attempts to exploit perceived US weakness in drone tactics. Internal RF information operations counter perceived "traitors." RF channels publish content projecting public support. TASS actively uses claimed UAF POW statements to portray desertion and low morale within Ukrainian ranks. RF is attempting to leverage historical monuments in Moldova to portray Ukraine as allied with Nazis. TASS is attempting to influence US political discourse by amplifying statements like Jeffrey Sachs' comments on Trump and Ukraine. TASS is now actively promoting civilian news, such as Russia's representation at an international music contest, likely to normalize the information environment and divert attention from military operations. The publication of a POW interrogation video by TASS (Yevgeny Popelyshkin) indicates RF's continued and adaptable capability to exploit captured personnel for psychological operations, aiming to sow discord and undermine UAF command effectiveness. RF will continue to leverage civilian testimonials, as seen from Kursk Oblast and Mash on Donbas, and now Andriivka, to portray itself as a victim of Ukrainian aggression and to justify its military actions to its domestic audience. RF is increasingly using cultural and religious narratives to foster internal unity and traditional values, as seen with promotion of Orthodox Christian traditions and news about spiritual-moral culture in schools. TASS claims average of 400 UAF strikes on RF civilian objects per day. The new reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia is likely to be leveraged by RF to show continued European reliance and economic influence. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed to project stability and resilience despite high-level losses. RF milbloggers will likely continue to question the effectiveness of Western AD (e.g., Patriot against Kinzhal). Alex Parker Returns' military recruitment videos demonstrate continued information operations to attract personnel. TASS reporting on detentions for monument desecration in Crimea is part of this narrative. TASS reporting on the appeal of a billionaire in a bribery case also frames the internal legal system as functioning. The FSB's claims of thwarting Ukrainian special services are intended to project internal security effectiveness. The detention of a former presidential candidate's staff member highlights RF's control over its political information space. The new criminal cases against a former Deputy Minister of Defense demonstrate the state's willingness to publicize internal corruption issues. News from Moscow criticizing EU "brain drain" highlights economic information operations. TASS reports on the US Congress cancelling meetings over the Epstein case, a clear amplification of internal US political issues to highlight disarray. The cynical framing of the Polish General's death by RF milbloggers also shows continued aggressive information warfare. RF MFA statements reflect continued adaptive diplomatic narratives. FSB detentions and subsequent propaganda videos demonstrate rapid adaptation for internal security and counter-intelligence narratives. Raids on "Baza" publication further highlight suppression of independent media and control over information flow, confirmed by the arrest of the editor-in-chief. TASS also provides video showing the situation at the Baza office. RF will use events like the funeral of Yuri Kara and cultural festivals in Chechnya to further project normalcy and stability. Alex Parker Returns' attempts to analyze White House political images and TASS promotion of Moskvich car sales are also part of this information campaign, aimed at projecting internal Russian normalcy and strength. TASS reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 indicates continued RF narrative exploitation of personal tragedies to question the conflict. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF uses civilians as human shields. Colonelcassad uses derogatory term "Narkofyurer" (Narcodictator) for Zelenskyy. TASS reports Peskov's statements on Istanbul negotiations control the narrative. TASS also reports Trump plans to withdraw the US from UNESCO due to its "anti-American vector." TASS reports on Milan Mayor Sala's corruption suspicions. TASS reports Gazmanov's call for artists to support SMO fighters for moral support. TASS reports the ban on child toy sales in Kandahar, Afghanistan. WarGonzo reports on the Russia-China-Iran nuclear meeting. Басурин о главном publishes video "Catching traitors and enemies of Russia," showing arrests and interrogations related to terrorist acts. Басурин о главном's use of Tucker Carlson's statement about Russia "winning" highlights RF's efforts to leverage external commentators to bolster domestic morale and influence international perception. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports three injured in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF strike, which will be leveraged to emphasize RF victimhood. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, reinforcing the narrative of external threats and justifying internal security measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора reports detention of a Telegram channel author in Volgograd for extortion and public justification of Nazism, reinforcing the narrative of combating internal extremism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on migrant crime in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend" to stir social unrest and criticize migration policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Trump, by rejecting Ukraine's NATO membership, swayed it towards negotiations with Russia. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception and suggest US/Ukraine disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Artillery Systems (New): Colonelcassad's claim of the use of 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from North Korea indicates a continued and potentially expanding capability to field new or additional artillery systems, potentially supplied by external actors. MoD Russia's video confirms Uragan MLRS use. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS firing rockets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Border Operations: The identified "Anvar" unit operating in Sumy/Chernihiv border regions demonstrates RF's persistent capability for localized reconnaissance and targeting operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Legal Measures & Internal Control: TASS reporting on the in absentia charging of a blogger for promoting terrorism in Dagestan indicates RF's continued capability and willingness to use legal mechanisms to control internal narratives. The Khabarovsk Krai Police reporting on a criminal case indicates continued focus on domestic law and order. The detention of a hacker in Novosibirsk indicates continued focus on cyber security. TASS reports searches at Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko's home, suggesting internal anti-corruption or security operations. "Два майора" discusses sentencing related to illegal migration, indicating internal security focus. The reporting on the death of the Supreme Court Chairman highlights the functioning of the RF legal system. The detentions in Crimea for monument desecration underscore RF's efforts to control historical narratives. The detention of a migrant in Tyumen and the appeal of a billionaire in a bribery case indicate continued application of internal law enforcement. The FSB's claims of thwarting Ukrainian special services are intended to project internal security effectiveness. The detention of a former presidential candidate's staff member highlights RF's control over its political information space. The new criminal cases against a former Deputy Minister of Defense for corruption highlight RF's legal mechanisms for internal accountability. Putin's toughening of rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports indicates increased state control over economic interfaces. RF MFA's expanded list of banned EU officials is another example of diplomatic-legal measures. Raids on "Baza" media outlet, and the subsequent arrest of its editor-in-chief, signify an escalated and adaptive control over internal information flows and suppression of independent media. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. TASS reports that the acceptance of applications for IT deferrals from military service has begun. ASTRA reports a pensioner from Izhevsk was sentenced for treason but released due to health. TASS reports State Duma adopted law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. TASS reports Duma adopted an amendment fining citizens for disclosing state secrets in media. TASS reports no plans to block foreign messengers, but compliance with requirements. TASS reports investigators opened a criminal case against an internet channel administrator for extortion and public justification of terrorism. TASS reports the military court sentenced Lithuanian Bartkevichius to 23 years in absentia for desecrating a military grave and other terror-related crimes in Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, indicating proactive legal measures against perceived threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора reports the author of a Volgograd Telegram channel was detained for extortion and public justification of Nazism, demonstrating continued legal enforcement against online content. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Counter-UAV Capabilities: The successful repulsion of UAV attacks in Rostov-on-Don, Millerovo, Donetsk (Rostov Oblast), and Azov district, as well as three UAVs over Tula Oblast, indicates RF's continued capability to defend against UAF drone incursions. RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight, including nine over Bryansk Oblast. The FPV drone attack in Belgorod and on Samara Oblast indicates that while RF has AD capabilities, UAF drones can still penetrate and cause damage. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights counter-drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a video showing a military aircraft, likely a fighter jet, in flight during low-light conditions, with apparent explosion or impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Port Operations in Occupied Territories: The continued operation of Mariupol port, even if understaffed, demonstrates RF's capability to restore and utilize critical infrastructure in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Projection: The escort operation by the Steregushchiy-class corvette "Boykiy" demonstrates RF's capability to project naval power and secure logistical routes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • ELINT Capabilities: Colonelcassad's video claiming successful UAF liquidation via radio intercepts indicates RF possesses and utilizes effective Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) capabilities for targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Maneuver Capability (Tactical): TASS video showing an RF APC maneuvering in open terrain indicates continued tactical ground force mobility. Басурин о главном's report of Russian reconnaissance entering Krasnoarmeysk indicates a capability for deep infiltration by special groups. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes video of DRG activity in Krasnoarmeysk, showing an ambush on a UAF vehicle. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle, moving along a road, with one appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) during movement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Long-Term Military Budgeting: Budanov's report on Russia's plan to spend $1.1 trillion USD on rearmament by 2036 indicates a long-term, significant commitment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Hydropower (Occupied Territories): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:
  • Geographic Expansion into Western Ukraine, Multi-Platform Coordination & Diversionary Tactics (CRITICAL - Including Hypersonic Missile & Cluster Munitions, New FAB Use, NEW KINZHAL ON KYIV, Continued KAB use, Confirmed KAB on Kramatorsk, "Harpies" and Krasnoarmeysk UAV C2 targeting, Confirmed "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk/Izium, Orlivka strike by "Harpy" drones, Uragan MLRS strike on Temirovka, Civilian Casualties in Nova Kakhovka, Gas Facilities Attack, Repeated KAB launches in Donetsk/Kharkiv/Sumy): Expansion of strategic missile strikes deep into Western Ukraine concurrently with Shahed waves, and re-engagement of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles from MiG-31K targeting deep Western Ukraine and now Kyiv, indicates continued and enhanced adaptation of multi-platform, coordinated deep strikes. Confirmed use of X-101 with cluster munition warheads in Chernivtsi is a critical tactical adaptation. Claimed use of FABs on UAF reserves in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast suggests expansion of precision aviation strikes into central Ukraine. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025. Colonelcassad's claim of a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv confirms tactical adaptation to target UAF domestic defense production. RF has adapted to use KABs against Sumy, Dobropillia and Kramatorsk. Continued use of strike UAVs against Eastern Dnipropetrovsk (Samarivskyi district), Poltava Oblast, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. Kotsnews reporting on "Harpies" indicates adaptation to new PGM/loitering munitions. MoD Russia's claim of destroying a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad's claim of "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk and associated smoke plume indicates continued adaptable use of Shaheds. Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. Старше Эдды publishes drone video showing an FPV drone strike on a building, followed by a fire, and the Ukrainian flag on a damaged structure. Colonelcassad's video confirming "Harpy" drone use in Orlivka, Sumy Oblast, indicates an adaptive deployment of new drone types for localized strikes. MoD Russia's video shows continued use of MLRS. WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports RF attacked Sumy with drones in daylight, damaging a medical facility and playground. This indicates an adaptive change to daylight drone attacks on civilian areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts, confirming continued and adaptive use of guided bombs against these regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes video showing residents of Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, visually monitoring a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike on a Ukrainian "occupation formation" object. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Increased Shahed Volume on Kyiv, Southern Ukraine, and now Kharkiv: Increase in Shahed UAVs targeting Kyiv, emergence of new Shahed groups in Black Sea towards Southern Ukraine, and new groups towards Kharkiv indicates intent to increase saturation. New Shahed threat for Dnipropetrovsk indicates continued spread of drone activity. Alex Parker Returns explicitly states intent to use "Geraniums" (Shaheds) on the frontline due to increased production. Further Shahed activity now reported heading towards Pavlohrad from Zaporizhzhia Oblast and new groups inbound to Mykolaiv and Odesa. The confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa highlights continued adaptive targeting. Сили оборони Півдня України reports continued Shahed use in the Southern direction. RF milblogger blaming UAF AD for civilian damage in Odesa is a new adaptive information tactic. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). NEW: Air Force reports a likely reconnaissance UAV heading north towards Sumy city, indicating adaptive reconnaissance efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ballistic Missile Re-engagement on Kyiv and Hypersonic Missile on Western Ukraine and NOW Kyiv: Re-engagement of ballistic missiles on Kyiv and use of Kinzhal hypersonic missile on Ivano-Frankivsk and now Kyiv indicates escalation in munitions. Latest ballistic missile threat for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates continued targeting. NEW: Ballistic missile threat for Kyiv declared from Northeast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Operations (Exploitative & Adaptive, Internal Focus, Expanding to US Internal Politics, Information Control Escalation): RF adapted its information operations to exploit UAF deep strikes on Moscow, using lifting of airport restrictions as propaganda, while intensifying demoralizing rhetoric. RF state media disseminating video of claimed ground operations and drone intercept claims. RF milbloggers adapting to exploit non-military events for propaganda. RF is adapting its internal propaganda to address perceived issues and maintain support, including through cultural events and promoting civilian services. RF is highlighting US statements on Iran to justify its own geopolitical positioning. Introduction of civilian normalization narratives (music contest, sports/playground development, teacher compensation, airport normalization, funeral of Yuri Kara, Chechen festival, new Moskvich car sales, airport recreation zones, 4-day work week benefits, 4-day work week proven beneficial, IT deferrals, Supreme Court memorial, Yuri Kara funeral, domestic banana saplings) to divert attention. The rapid dissemination of the captured UAF soldier's statement by TASS demonstrates RF's immediate adaptation of new opportunities for psychological warfare. The deployment of civilian testimonials about alleged UAF shelling in border regions and now from conflict-affected Donbas (Mash on Donbass) and Andriivka is a new adaptation for RF information operations. RF is increasingly using cultural and religious narratives to foster internal unity and support for its operations. TASS claims average of 400 UAF strikes on RF civilian objects per day. The new reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia is likely to be leveraged by RF. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed as a natural occurrence, with emphasis on continuity. RF milbloggers actively questioning the effectiveness of Western AD (e.g., Patriot against Kinzhal/Iskander) is a targeted information operation. RF milbloggers' attempts to frame NABU's internal issues as a loss of Western support due to Trump's potential return are a new adaptive information warfare tactic. The immediate use of footage of monument desecration in Crimea for propaganda demonstrates this adaptability. The detention of political opposition figures is a tactic to control the internal narrative. The publicity around high-level corruption cases (Popov) may be an adaptive attempt to project accountability. News from Moscow criticizing EU "brain drain" highlights economic information operations. TASS reports on the US Congress Epstein case (internal US political issue) and the death of Polish General Skrzypczak (cynically framed) demonstrating an adaptive ability to leverage disparate events for propaganda. RF MFA statements reflect continued adaptive diplomatic narratives. FSB detentions and subsequent propaganda videos demonstrate rapid adaptation for internal security and counter-intelligence messaging. Raids on "Baza" media outlet, and the subsequent arrest of its editor-in-chief, signify an escalated and adaptive control over internal information flows and suppression of independent media. TASS also provides video showing the situation at the Baza office. TASS reports Peskov's statements on Istanbul negotiations control the narrative. TASS also reports Trump plans to withdraw the US from UNESCO due to its "anti-American vector." TASS reports on Milan Mayor Sala's corruption suspicions. TASS reports Gazmanov's call for artists to support SMO fighters for moral support. TASS reports the ban on child toy sales in Kandahar, Afghanistan. WarGonzo reports on the Russia-China-Iran nuclear meeting. Басурин о главном publishes video "Catching traitors and enemies of Russia." Басурин о главном leveraging Tucker Carlson's statement is a new adaptive information tactic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports three injured in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF strike, which will be leveraged to emphasize RF victimhood. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, reinforcing the narrative of external threats and justifying internal security measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора reports detention of a Telegram channel author in Volgograd for extortion and public justification of Nazism, reinforcing the narrative of combating internal extremism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on migrant crime in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend" to stir social unrest and criticize migration policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Trump, by rejecting Ukraine's NATO membership, swayed it towards negotiations with Russia. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception and suggest US/Ukraine disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "Disunity within Ukraine" Narrative: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" attempts to project internal disunity. Alex Parker Returns posts video related to TCC and Romani people, and is now actively promoting a narrative about UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky having his parents treated in Moscow. RF claims Ukraine has run out of cemetery space. The dissemination of footage showing a violent TCC detention in Chernih by Colonelcassad indicates RF's continued and immediate adaptation to exploit internal Ukrainian social tensions. TASS's unverified claim of a UK-trained UAF unit being destroyed in Dnipropetrovsk is another example. Операция Z's claim about NABU losing Western "roof" due to Trump is a direct adaptive disinformation campaign. TASS report claiming Latin American mercenaries fled Alexandrovgrad is an adaptive narrative. TASS reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. Операция Z's information operation about "traitors-Nazis from Russia" being handed over by Kyiv and committing suicide highlights RF's adaptive effort to undermine Ukrainian internal cohesion. NEW: Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны report Western publications are again talking about Zelenskyy's authoritarianism after the curtailment of NABU powers, explicitly linking it to Western concerns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "RF Stability and Development" Narrative (Internal): Mishustin's statements on airport modernization and border crossing point repairs aim to project an image of internal stability. News about fining crypto payments in 2026 attempts to project long-term economic planning. TASS reports FIDE allowing Russian women's chess team to compete. Kadyrov_95 [Video message] documents a religious event in Chechnya. ASTRA reports that Sheremetyevo Airport has labeled as "fakes" videos showing crowds of passengers. Colonelcassad reports for the first time in a long time, he used a Russian Railways train. TASS is promoting ease of entry for foreigners into RF. The lifting of flight restrictions at Samara airport and Kaluga airport is a further example of RF's adaptive strategy to normalize internal conditions. The reporting on Mariupol port operations is another attempt to normalize the situation in occupied territories. RF internal reporting on criminal cases, economic meetings, and internal security operations also serve to project a focus on stability and governance. RF milbloggers' sharing of Orthodox Christian traditions also works to foster internal unity. Rostov Oblast's focus on UAV development signals innovation. RF MoD proposed salary increase for military personnel aims to project positive conditions. The reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia will be framed internally by RF. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed as a natural occurrence, with emphasis on continuity. News about Moscow's urban development reinforces the normalcy narrative. Putin's toughening of foreign vessel access is presented as a measure for national security. TASS reports on RF AI development. Север.Реалии reports on "Spiritual-Moral Culture" in schools. The recovery of Winelab stores from a cyberattack is used to project resilience. The funeral of Yuri Kara and the Chechen cultural festival are used for normalization. TASS reports the new Moskvich-8 car is on sale for 2.98 million rubles. TASS reports the Sheremetyevo airport is organizing recreation zones for passengers. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. Новости Москвы reports scientists have proven a four-day work week without salary reduction improves employee well-being. TASS reports the State Duma has approved the transfer of data regarding migrant children enrollment in schools to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, framing this as a measure of control and order. TASS reporting on the death of a State Duma Deputy from illness is a part of this internal political framing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports actor Steven Seagal has left one of his last projects in Russia, which could be framed as a natural internal business decision. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы publishes a review of a Huawei MatePad Pro, indicating internal focus on technology and consumer goods. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Artillery Systems: The claimed deployment of 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from North Korea suggests a tactical adaptation to bolster artillery capabilities. MoD Russia's video confirms Uragan MLRS use. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS firing rockets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Persistent Border Reconnaissance: The active deployment of the "Anvar" unit on the Sumy/Chernihiv border, utilizing drones, demonstrates a sustained tactical adaptation. Mykolaiv Oblast reconnaissance UAV also points to this. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs over southeastern Sumy Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast, and southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). NEW: Air Force reports a likely reconnaissance UAV heading north towards Sumy city, indicating continued adaptive reconnaissance efforts in border regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rapid Counter-UAV Response: The reported successful repulsion of UAV attacks in Rostov-on-Don and other areas, including Tula and Bryansk Oblasts, indicates RF's adaptive capability to rapidly respond. The reported destruction of 35 UAVs overnight, including nine over Bryansk Oblast, demonstrates an adaptive, scaled response. The reported drone attack on Samara Oblast indicates RF's continued vulnerability. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights counter-drone tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a video showing a military aircraft, likely a fighter jet, in flight during low-light conditions, with apparent explosion or impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Exploitation of Occupied Infrastructure: The continued operation of Mariupol port, reported by TASS, demonstrates RF's adaptive strategy to quickly integrate and utilize captured Ukrainian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sustained Naval Logistics: The escort operation of military cargo vessels through the Baltic Sea, North Sea, English Channel, and Atlantic demonstrates RF's sustained capability to move military equipment globally via sea. Putin's toughening of foreign vessel access may impact commercial maritime logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Increased Domestic Drone Production Focus: RF's intent to make Rostov Oblast a leader in UAV development, with military-to-civilian tech transfer and production expansion, highlights a significant adaptive strategy. Budanov's report on Russia's $1.1 trillion rearmament plan by 2036 underpins this. Colonelcassad's video showing large quantities of new dirt bikes/motorcycles likely for military use indicates significant logistical acquisition and adaptation to tactical needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Exploiting Localized UAF Tactical Setbacks: RF rapidly propagating claims of UAF surrender in Popov Yar and the capture of Varachino demonstrates an immediate adaptation to exploit perceived UAF tactical setbacks. TASS's claim of Latin American mercenaries fled Alexandrovgrad is another example. The claims of Rosgvardia successes in Sumy Oblast against UAF BREM and Gvozdika. TASS and MoD Russia claim RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske in DNR. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports DeepState analysis that RF army occupied Hrushevske and advanced near Voskresenka, Orikhove, Mayak and Zatyhka (formerly Suvorove) in Donetsk Oblast. Narodnaya милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles near Dachne. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Acknowledgement of Drone Importance: "Два майора" milblogger's commentary acknowledging the need for pre-war drone focus indicates an internal adaptation in strategic thinking. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a photo message highlighting the US integration of unmanned surface vessels (USVs) into naval special forces tactics, likely to implicitly compare or highlight perceived threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Resource Appeals via Milbloggers: "Операция Z" milbloggers' public appeal for thermal imagers indicates an adaptive tactic to leverage public support. NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition calls for help with civilian engineering equipment at the front, indicating an adaptive tactic to source needed materiel from civilian channels. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Adaptive Drone Interception (Unverified): "Два майора" claim of a Russian drone intercepting an enemy UAV that was carrying interception drones represents a highly advanced and, if verified, significant tactical adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • ELINT-driven Targeting: Colonelcassad's claim of UAF liquidation based on radio intercepts indicates an adaptive use of ELINT for tactical targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • WarGonzo Mapping: WarGonzo's rapid publication of updated frontline maps indicates an adaptive information operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Aggressive DRG Activity (Pokrovsk, Krasnoarmeysk): The new video from "Операция Z" and WarGonzo confirming the ambush by RF DRG in Pokrovsk shows an aggressive and adaptive tactical change. Басурин о главном's report of Russian reconnaissance entering Krasnoarmeysk also highlights aggressive special group activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Рыбарь channel publishes a photo and video indicating "Russian infantry in Pokrovsk," supporting claims of adaptive DRG or ground force activity in the area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes video claiming to show drone footage of an AFU armored vehicle being engaged in Pokrovsk by AIRNOMADS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Fortifications: RF building new fortifications near Chervona Dibrova in LPR signifies an adaptive defensive posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Demining Operations: RF engineers actively engaged in demining in Kharkiv direction indicates adaptive efforts to secure and expand logistical routes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Targeting of UAF UAV C2: Colonelcassad's claim of destroying a UAF UAV command post near Chasiv Yar and MoD Russia's claim of destroying a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction indicate an adaptive targeting strategy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Military Personnel Recruitment: Alex Parker Returns publishes videos promoting military service with significant signing bonuses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Volunteer Aid (RF forces): Сливочный каприз publishes video showing two individuals next to a van filled with boxes, indicating continued reliance on civilian support for their forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad's video on the 4th vehicle convoy confirms continued volunteer aid reliance and its use for tactical resupply (motorcycles). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Suppression (VK): Север.Реалии reports VKontakte blocked public pages criticizing the head of the Vologda region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New IT Military Deferral: TASS reports that the acceptance of applications for IT deferrals from military service has begun. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF SU-27 in Romanian Airspace (ISR Adaptation): Colonelcassad's report on a Ukrainian SU-27 in Romanian airspace indicates RF's continued, and perhaps enhanced, ability to conduct aerial surveillance or intelligence gathering on UAF assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Moscow Drone Manufacturing Attack: РБК-Україна reports a car belonging to the head of a company manufacturing drones for occupiers was burned in Moscow, suggesting adaptive UAF deep attacks or internal dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Increased Offensive Pace: Сливочный каприз's chart indicating an increased pace of RF offensive operations (km²/day) for 2024-2025 shows an adaptive shift towards more aggressive ground action. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Internal Police Actions (New): TASS reports investigators opened a criminal case against an internet channel administrator for extortion and public justification of terrorism. This demonstrates adaptive legal actions against perceived internal threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора reports the author of a Volgograd Telegram channel was detained for extortion and public justification of Nazism, indicating adaptive legal action against online content. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Citizen Dissident Detention (New): Север.Реалии publishes a video showing a protest in Moscow, with an activist being detained for criticizing censorship and the war. This demonstrates RF's adaptive measures for internal suppression of dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Beer Production (New): TASS publishes a photo message claiming Russia has displaced Germany from the top five largest beer producers in the world, demonstrating an adaptive information operation to highlight economic success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Law Enforcement Detention (New): Север.Реалии reports that detentions related to the case of leaking official information occurred in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Krasnodar Krai, and Belgorod Oblast, showing continued adaptive measures against perceived internal threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Air Force Military Aircraft (New): "Два майора" publishes a video showing a military aircraft, likely a fighter jet, in flight during low-light conditions, with apparent explosion or impact, suggesting adaptive use of air power for various missions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Fighterbomber publishes video showing a military helicopter flying low over a field, indicating adaptive use of rotary-wing assets for reconnaissance or attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Spiritual Values Legislation (New): TASS reports the State Duma has adopted a law to refuse distribution certificates for films that lack distribution certificates or discredit Russian spiritual and moral values, indicating adaptive control over cultural and information spheres. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • China Asset Masking (New): Рыбарь publishes photo messages claiming China is masking US assets, used to highlight perceived US vulnerabilities or Chinese economic maneuvering. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal RF Law Enforcement Measures (New): TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services. This indicates an adaptive measure to enhance internal security and control public gatherings in response to perceived threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kaluga Oblast Migrant Crime (New): Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on a crime involving migrant children in Kaluga Oblast, framed as a "new trend." This is an adaptive information operation aimed at stirring social unrest and criticizing internal policies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Trump on Ukraine/NATO (New): TASS reports Trump, by rejecting Ukraine's NATO membership, swayed it towards negotiations with Russia. This is an adaptive information operation to influence international perception and suggest US/Ukraine disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Enemy Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Rail Logistics Disruption: UAF drone attack on Kamianolomni railway station in Rostov Oblast caused a fire and delayed over 50 trains, indicating a significant, albeit temporary, disruption. RF is actively working to restore normal operations. TASS reports all trains to Black Sea resorts on July 22 will follow schedule. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Air Transport Disruption: UAF drone attacks caused repeated temporary closures of Moscow airports. RF is actively working to restore normal civilian air traffic, exemplified by the recent lifting of restrictions at Samara and Kaluga airports. TASS reports Sheremetyevo airport is organizing recreation zones for passengers. WarGonzo questions conditions at Moscow airport during "carpet plan" (drone attack), indicating continued public concern about disruptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Infrastructure Vulnerability (Weather): Heavy rainfall in Moscow and a bridge collapse highlight internal infrastructure vulnerabilities. The mudslide in Kabardino-Balkaria and the damaged bridge further highlights environmental vulnerabilities. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. The severe drought conditions in Donbas, impacting the Khanzhenkovo reservoir, indicate a significant environmental and logistical challenge for water supply to cities in DNR, and potentially for military operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Resource Requirements: RF continues to rely on civilian donations for certain equipment ("vehicle kits" for frontline units), indicating ongoing but manageable sustainment needs. The reported use of North Korean 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" suggests RF is willing and able to source military equipment from international partners. The announced focus on making Rostov Oblast a leader in UAV development, and Alex Parker Returns' military recruitment efforts, indicate a long-term strategic investment. The appeal for thermal imagers via milbloggers highlights specific ongoing equipment needs. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. Сливочный каприз publishes video showing volunteer aid delivery to the 70th regiment. Colonelcassad's video showing large quantities of new dirt bikes/motorcycles being acquired indicates a specific logistical focus and reliance on non-standard channels. NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition calls for help with civilian engineering equipment at the front, indicating a specific logistical gap. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Maritime Logistics (Occupied Territories): The reported operation of Mariupol port indicates RF's ability to establish and utilize maritime logistics in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Global Naval Logistics: The escort operation of military cargo vessels through the Baltic Sea, North Sea, English Channel, and Atlantic demonstrates RF's sustained capability to move military equipment globally via sea. Putin's toughening of foreign vessel access may impact commercial maritime logistics. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Impact of UK Sanctions: New UK sanctions against 135 RF "shadow fleet" tankers aim to disrupt RF's oil export revenues. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Russia reduced liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 7% in the first half of the year due to sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Personnel Sustainment: The proposed 7.6% salary increase for military personnel indicates RF's awareness of the need to maintain morale and retention. High-level corruption cases within the MoD (Popov) could, however, impact morale. FSB detentions of alleged Ukrainian agents who confessed to planning railway infrastructure attacks suggest active UAF efforts to disrupt RF logistics. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the liquidation of Gennady Starunov, a Russian "Teacher of the Year 2022," who was mobilized. The IT military deferrals indicate a policy to manage personnel sustainment. ASTRA reports a teenager claiming torture after detention for forest arson. TASS reports State Duma allowed widows of SVO fighters to use their cars until inheritance is issued. Военкор Котенок shares a photo report on the absence of water in Donbas, which can impact civilian well-being and potentially military sustainment in the long run. Операция Z's information operation about "traitors-Nazis from Russia" being handed over by Kyiv and committing suicide aims to manage internal personnel issues. TASS reporting on the death of State Duma Deputy Mikhail Tarasenko. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports foreign citizens face pressure from military enlistment offices, indicating challenges in personnel recruitment and sustainment, especially for foreign fighters. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Components Sourcing (New): RBC-Ukraine reports that the majority of components for a new RF UAV are sourced from China. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Cyberattack on Civilian Supply Chain: The cyberattack on Winelab stores, while civilian, highlights a potential vulnerability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Pensioner Treason Case: ASTRA reports a pensioner from Izhevsk, Sergey Silantyev, was sentenced to 15 years for treason but released due to health. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Illegal Logging (Ukraine Carpathians): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports large-scale illegal logging in Ukrainian Carpathians caused 55.8 million UAH in damages. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Domestic Agriculture: TASS reports the first 40,000 domestic banana saplings will go on sale in autumn. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Transportation Fees: Новости Москвы reports that registration fees for vehicles and driver's licenses will increase from September 1, 2025, which may impact civilian logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• EU Frozen Assets: РБК-Україна reports the EU wants to informally discuss the fate of frozen Russian assets. This could impact RF's financial sustainment if assets are used to aid Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness

• Centralized Deep Strike Coordination: The multi-vector, multi-platform nature of the recent aerial assault demonstrates effective centralized C2 for strategic-level operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Tactical Drone Integration: Continued effective integration of FPV and reconnaissance drones for tactical kinetic effects indicates effective C2 at the unit level. The FPV strike on a UAF soldier in Sumy direction and the FPV strike in Belgorod further demonstrates localized tactical C2 effectiveness. MoD Russia's video of "Feniks" drone in action suggests effective C2 over tactical drone operations. Colonelcassad's claim of destroying a UAF UAV command post and MoD Russia's claim of destroying a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk further indicates this. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights effective counter-drone C2. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. Colonelcassad's video on "Harpy" drones indicates effective C2 for deployment and targeting. Colonelcassad publishes video claiming "exemplary work" of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 5th Guards Tank Brigade drone operators in destroying AFU armored vehicles and personnel near Alexandrovgrad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Воин DV publishes drone video claiming the 305th Artillery Brigade used a Lancet loitering munition to strike a UAF Dana self-propelled howitzer, demonstrating effective C2 for combined arms/drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Information Operations C2: The rapid and consistent dissemination of RF narratives across various milblogger and state media channels, now including immediate exploitation of POWs, violent TCC detentions, and civilian testimonials (Mash on Donbas, Andriivka), indicates a highly centralized and effective C2 over information operations. The coordinated push of civilian-focused news by TASS and other RF channels indicates well-managed C2 over state media narratives. The immediate reporting and video dissemination of the Kramatorsk KAB strike by RF milbloggers and state media, framing it as a successful military action despite civilian casualties, indicates agile C2 for propaganda. The rapid framing of the NABU scandal as a loss of Western support, the narrative of "Latin American mercenaries" fleeing, and the targeting of UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky with personal information also indicate adaptive C2 for disinformation. The immediate reporting on detentions for monument desecration and other internal security events also falls under this C2. The cynical framing of the Polish General's death demonstrates coordinated narrative control. RF MFA statements further indicate centralized diplomatic messaging. FSB detentions and subsequent propaganda videos demonstrate rapid adaptation for internal security and counter-intelligence messaging. Raids on "Baza" media outlet, and the subsequent arrest of its editor-in-chief, further demonstrate C2 over internal information flows and suppression of independent media. TASS provides video of the Baza office situation. TASS reports Peskov's statements on Istanbul negotiations control the narrative. TASS also reports Trump plans to withdraw the US from UNESCO. TASS reports on Milan Mayor Sala's corruption suspicions. TASS reports Gazmanov's call for artists to support SMO fighters. TASS reports the ban on child toy sales in Kandahar, Afghanistan. WarGonzo reports on the Russia-China-Iran nuclear meeting. Басурин о главном publishes video "Catching traitors and enemies of Russia." Басурин о главsного leveraging Tucker Carlson's statement is a new adaptive information tactic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, demonstrating effective C2 in responding to perceived threats and controlling public space. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора reports detention of a Telegram channel author in Volgograd for extortion and public justification of Nazism, showcasing C2 over internal information control and legal action. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on migrant crime in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend" and criticizing Russian authorities. This demonstrates agile C2 in exploiting social issues for propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Trump, by rejecting Ukraine's NATO membership, swayed it towards negotiations with Russia. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception and suggest US/Ukraine disunity, demonstrating C2 over diplomatic messaging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Security Operations C2: The successful detention of alleged Ukrainian intelligence agents, the internal NABU operation, and the FSB's recent report of thwarting Ukrainian special services suggest effective counter-intelligence C2 within RF. The in absentia charging of a blogger for promoting terrorism, Khabarovsk police report on hooliganism, Novosibirsk hacking arrest, searches at Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko's home, the detention of a migrant in Tyumen, and the arrest of Moldovan oligarch Plahotniuc demonstrates RF's ability to maintain C2 over legal mechanisms for internal security. The swift reporting on repelling drone attacks in Rostov, Tula, and other areas, with updated high interception numbers including Bryansk Oblast, indicates effective C2 for internal air defense. The reporting on the death of the Supreme Court Chairman, emphasizing a smooth transition, projects stability in the judicial C2. The detention of a political opposition figure also demonstrates C2 over political dissent. The ongoing high-level corruption cases against former MoD officials also fall under internal C2. The detention of two foreign nationals for dancing in St. Petersburg and the Novorossiysk gas explosion response show continued internal security vigilance. Putin's toughening of rules for foreign vessel access also highlights C2 over border security. FSB detentions of alleged Ukrainian agents planning attacks on railway infrastructure indicate effective C2 over counter-terrorism. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. TASS reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. Operatsiya Z reports a criminal case for exceeding authority has been opened against police officers in Moscow who leaked information, and searches are ongoing at the office of a Telegram channel. TASS reports IT deferrals for military service are open. ASTRA reports a pensioner from Izhevsk was sentenced for treason but released due to health. TASS reports State Duma adopted law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. TASS reports Duma adopted an amendment fining citizens for disclosing state secrets in media. TASS reports the Duma approved data transfer for migrant children to Interior Ministry, showing C2 over population control. TASS reports investigators opened a criminal case against an internet channel administrator for extortion and public justification of terrorism. TASS reports the military court sentenced Lithuanian Bartkevichius to 23 years in absentia for desecrating a military grave and other terror-related crimes in Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, demonstrating effective C2 in responding to perceived threats and controlling public space. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора reports detention of a Telegram channel author in Volgograd for extortion and public justification of Nazism, showcasing C2 over internal information control and legal action. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Adaptation to Civilian Disruptions: RF authorities demonstrate effective C2 in managing civilian disruptions from UAF drone attacks and adverse weather, including rapid lifting of flight restrictions and coordination of recovery efforts, and planning for future drone development. The declaration of an emergency situation in Kabardino-Balkaria due to a mudslide and the damaged bridge also show C2 responsiveness. The rapid recovery of Winelab stores from a cyberattack demonstrates C2 over critical civilian infrastructure. TASS reports Sheremetyevo airport is organizing recreation zones for passengers. WarGonzo's reporting on Moscow airport during "carpet plan" indicates public awareness and C2 attempts to manage it. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ground Operations C2: Liveuamap Source reports multiple clashes across various axes, and WarGonzo's updated maps indicate coordinated ground operations C2, even if localized. The claimed advances near Starytsia, the claimed surrender at Popov Yar, the claimed capture of Varachino, and the claimed infiltration of Krasnoarmeysk, and now the claimed liberation of Hrushevske and Novotoretske, if verified, would point to effective localized ground C2 and targeting. The new video of DRG activity in Pokrovsk and Krasnoarmeysk further highlights localized, aggressive ground C2. RF's ability to conduct demining operations in Kharkiv direction and build new fortifications in Luhansk also indicate effective engineering C2. Rosgvardia's claimed successes in Sumy Oblast also point to effective localized C2. TASS video of APC maneuvering indicates C2 over tactical ground units. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle, moving along a road, with one appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) during movement. The chart from Сливочный каприз showing an increased offensive pace indicates a coordinated effort to sustain ground operations. MoD Russia's video on Uragan MLRS use indicates C2 over artillery support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Рыбарь channel publishing photo and video implying "Russian infantry in Pokrovsk" suggests coordinated ground movements and C2 at the tactical level. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes video claiming to show drone footage of an AFU armored vehicle being engaged in Pokrovsk by AIRNOMADS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video of 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade using FPV drones to destroy two pieces of RF mechanized equipment during an attempted assault, confirming RF ground force engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Naval C2: The coordinated escort of military cargo vessels from the Baltic Sea to the Atlantic demonstrates effective C2 for projecting naval power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Long-Term Military Planning C2: Budanov's report on Russia's $1.1 trillion rearmament plan by 2036 indicates centralized, long-term strategic C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• International Diplomatic C2: WarGonzo reports a Russia-China-Iran trilateral meeting planned today on nuclear issues, indicating strategic diplomatic C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian force posture and readiness

• Air Defense (AD) Posture (Strained but Effective): UAF AD remains fully engaged and highly effective, with 224 targets destroyed and 203 UAVs suppressed. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast's increased interception of 14 UAVs overnight demonstrates sustained local AD effectiveness. This, however, comes at a critical cost to interceptor stockpiles. The engagement across a vast geographic area, including successful interceptions over Chernivtsi and Kyiv, confirms nationwide coverage and readiness. The deployment of mobile AD units (ZU-23 on trucks) in Mykolaiv demonstrates tactical adaptation. AD active in Odesa against incoming Shaheds. The commitment from the Netherlands for Patriot AD systems is a positive development. Latest report of 26 downed/suppressed UAVs and 7 neutralized by REB indicates continued effectiveness against drones (Air Force reports 42 RF drones attacked). Confirmed ballistic missile threat to Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk indicates continued AD readiness requirements. The detection of a reconnaissance UAV in Mykolaiv Oblast indicates continued AD readiness requirements. Ukraine and Denmark are developing an AI-powered drone interceptor. The showcasing of F-16s with support equipment and the receipt of mobile complexes for F-16 maintenance indicates preparations. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video of 31st Brigade anti-aircraft drone systems successfully attacking Russian drones in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs over southeastern Sumy Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast, and southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAV from northeast towards Sumy. NEW: Air Force reports a likely reconnaissance UAV heading north towards Sumy city, requiring continued AD readiness. NEW: Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. Means for their destruction have been engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ground Forces Posture (Defensive & Adaptive, localized offensive capability): UAF ground forces are primarily in a defensive posture, particularly in the Eastern and Southern axes, repelling multiple RF assaults (23 on Kursk/Sumy axis, 4 in Kherson direction, 22 in Kursk and North Slobozhansky directions). Training activities (61st OMBr tank crews) indicate continued efforts to maintain combat readiness. GUR's claimed use of ground robots and drone operators conducting deep logistics interdiction demonstrates an adaptive and innovative posture. Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment holding back RF advances in Donetsk Oblast indicates continued localized ground resistance. UAF 63rd Brigade reports liquidation of 33 RF personnel via drone operations. The 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade's success in creating a "kill zone" in Donetsk Oblast demonstrates highly effective FPV drone tactical capabilities. The introduction of domestically produced 155-mm Bohdana-BG howitzers further enhances UAF's long-range artillery capabilities. The 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade is actively recruiting drone operators. The mobilization of approximately 9500 convicts into AFU ranks reflects efforts to address personnel needs. Photos of a UAF soldier with a weapon aim to project professionalism. STERNENKO provides video from "Sanitary Zone Flying Skull" showing drones on fiber optics flying into enemy positions, destroying a car, motorcycle, and enemy property and ammunition. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes video of a GUR experimental ground drone with two grenade launchers undergoing combat adaptation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing aeroreconnaissance from the 4th battalion of the 101st Brigade targeting a Russian occupant. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also publishes a video of Ukrainian soldiers, including Latin American volunteers, participating in combat training exercises. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes drone video showing the 1st Separate Special Purpose Detachment of the Omega CSP successfully dropping a munition on five Russian occupiers, resulting in at least one fatality and multiple serious injuries, indicating highly effective tactical operations and readiness. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video of 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade using FPV drones to destroy two pieces of RF mechanized equipment during an attempted assault, confirming successful engagement against armored targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a video message about strengthening the front in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including increasing the defense fund to 3 billion hryvnias, constructing an anti-drone road on the Orikhivskyyi highway, and plans for over 200 km of such infrastructure. Mentions a meeting with the Minister of Defense and President Zelenskyy's decision on Ukraine's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention (anti-personnel mines), stating daily production and delivery of 1,000-2,000 mine components, demonstrating UAF's adaptive and proactive defensive posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes drone footage showing the Khartia brigade's engagement against enemy personnel and a fuel depot in the Oskil region. This demonstrates active ground engagement and successful targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes a video titled "FPV-storm from Slobozhansky paratroopers!", showing effective FPV drone strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Security Readiness (Active Counter-Intelligence): The large-scale SBU/OGP operation against NABU employees, including the detention of a senior detective suspected of aiding RF, indicates a high state of internal security readiness. Ukrainian police also helped neutralize pro-Russian hacker network NoName057(16). The suspension of the President of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences highlights continued anti-corruption efforts. The shooting in Vasylkiv, while a civilian incident, highlights the need for continued internal security vigilance. The Prosecutor General's Office initiating investigations into attacks on Odesa, Donetsk, and Sumy highlights proactive legal measures. The ongoing NABU information leak investigation. A court has remanded NABU employee Viktor Husarov into custody. An employee of NABU's "most elite closed unit," suspected of treason, has had a pre-trial detention measure chosen. NABU Director Krivonos called on Zelenskyy not to sign bill. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора publishes a photo message stating the General Prosecutor's Office is systematically holding accountable individuals working for the enemy, highlighting the exposure and sentencing of "traitors." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes photo messages about an international police special operation that identified a "pseudominer" of facilities in Czechia, Slovakia, and Latvia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Стрелков Игорь Иванович's report on Ukrainian authorities mandating UOC to declare a break with ROC is an internal security/political measure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Overall Readiness (Sustained by External Aid and Domestic Focus): Ukraine's overall military readiness is sustained by a combination of continued international military aid, as well as a critical focus on increasing domestic weapons and drone production. The ongoing discussions for additional NATO funding also contribute to long-term readiness. High morale and defiance observed. President Zelenskyy's moratorium on baseless business checks aims to improve the internal economic environment. Participation in Ramstein meetings signifies continued high-level strategic coordination. Chief of General Staff's diplomatic engagement reinforces this. Ukraine will need at least $120 billion for defense next year. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Emergency Services Readiness: The swift and effective response by DSNS to the extensive civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa and Sumy demonstrates a high level of readiness. The immediate response to the Kramatorsk KAB strike further confirms this readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kryvyi Rih Stability: Local administration confirms controlled situation. Олександр Вілкул publishes photo messages regarding thermal modernization of educational facilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• PSYOPS Capability: The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade's video appealing to RF soldiers to surrender. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦's message "Treason is needed by the enemy, but the traitor is needed by no one!" is a counter-propaganda message. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Soldier Welfare Initiatives: Information on pensions for military personnel highlights focus on soldier welfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Prisoner of War Issues: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the death of the oldest civilian prisoner, Oleksandr Markov (74), in Russian captivity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Airspace Monitoring: Colonelcassad reports on a Ukrainian SU-27 in Romanian airspace. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Frontline Support: The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's photos of reinforcing the front with military requests (drones, radio equipment) demonstrate ongoing and responsive support to frontline units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Materiel Acquisition/Resupply: STERNENKO provides photo and video messages showing a new batch of 417 drones delivered to the front line, and military personnel unboxing mortar rounds/artillery shells and expressing gratitude for the support. This indicates active and successful efforts to acquire and resupply critical materiel to frontline units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Medical Front: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes multiple photo messages from a forum titled "Medical Front: experience, challenges, future" held in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating focus on military medicine and support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Recent tactical successes or setbacks

• Tactical Successes:
  • High AD Interception Rate: UAF AD successfully intercepted or suppressed 224 aerial targets by fire and 203 UAVs through REB. Dnipropetrovsk AD shot down 14 UAVs. Latest report confirms 26 UAVs shot down/suppressed and 7 neutralized, out of 42 RF drones. AD engagement of UAV near Odesa, and UAV heading towards Kryvyi Rih. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video of 31st Brigade anti-aircraft drone systems successfully attacking Russian drones in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Deep Strike on RF Logistics: Successful UAF UAV strike on Kamianolomni railway station in Rostov Oblast, causing significant disruption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Targeted RF AD Destruction: Successful UAF drone strike on an RF S-400 (92N6E MLRS) system in Belgorod Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports HIMARS strikes on an RF S-300 battery, "Nebo-M" radar, and "Big Bird" radar in Belgorod Oblast. Alex Parker Returns claims UAF video shows HIMARS strike on S-400 in Belgorod. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for drone strike, MEDIUM for HIMARS strike).
  • Innovative Tactical Deployments: Confirmed deployment of UAF GUR ground robots in combat (Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions) and successful use of ground drones for medical evacuation. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 publishes video of a GUR experimental ground drone with two grenade launchers undergoing combat adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Deep Logistics Interdiction: UAF drones demonstrating capability to cut deep RF logistics (30-40km behind lines) and create kill zones, as seen with the 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade's "kill zone" in Donetsk Oblast, and STERNENKO's "Sanitary Zone Flying Skull" operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Counter-battery Success: UAF 44th Artillery Brigade successfully targeted and destroyed an RF 2A65 Msta-B howitzer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Personnel Losses: UAF 63rd Brigade claiming extensive RF personnel losses through drone strikes. UAF General Staff provides updated RF loss estimates. The 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade's FPV drone operations resulted in multiple enemy personnel losses. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the liquidation of Gennady Starunov, a Russian "Teacher of the Year 2022," who was mobilized. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shows UAF drone engaging a Russian occupant. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes drone video showing the 1st Separate Special Purpose Detachment of the Omega CSP successfully targeting five Russian occupiers, resulting in at least one fatality and multiple serious injuries. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video of 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade using FPV drones to destroy two pieces of RF mechanized equipment during an attempted assault, confirming successful engagement against armored targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes drone footage showing the Khartia brigade's engagement against enemy personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes a video titled "FPV-storm from Slobozhansky paratroopers!", showing successful drone strikes on military targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Liquidation of RF Sabotage Groups: DeepState reports liquidation of RF sabotage groups in Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cyber Security Success: Ukrainian police helped neutralize pro-Russian hacker network NoName057(16). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes photo messages about an international police special operation that identified a "pseudominer" of facilities in Czechia, Slovakia, and Latvia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Repatriation: Ukraine returned a teenager forcibly taken from Mariupol to Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kinetic Impact on RF Military Airfield: Successful drone attack on Millerovo military airfield in Rostov Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Response Effectiveness: Confirmed rapid and effective response by State Emergency Service (DSNS) to large-scale civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa and Sumy. Confirmed rapid response in Kramatorsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Netherlands Patriot Contribution: Commitment from the Netherlands to contribute to Patriot AD systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Internal Drone Attack: Confirmed drone attack on Samara Oblast, RF, resulting in fire at Novosuybyshevsk oil refinery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade Counter-Drone Ops: Video from the 47th Brigade suggests successful engagements against RF ZALA drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Domestic Artillery Deployment: Domestic 155-mm Bohdana-BG howitzers entering service with the 40th Separate Artillery Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Corruption: Suspension of the President of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences for criminal investigation. Continued NABU information leak investigation. A court has remanded NABU employee Viktor Husarov into custody. An employee of NABU's "most elite closed unit," suspected of treason, has had a pre-trial detention measure chosen. NABU uncovered an SBU official in a record bribe case. Completed investigation into illegal coal mining. Official of "Forests of Ukraine" notified of suspicion for illegal enrichment. Офіс Генерального прокурора publishes a photo message stating the General Prosecutor's Office is systematically holding accountable individuals working for the enemy, highlighting the exposure and sentencing of "traitors." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Counterfeit Operations: Successful operation against counterfeit perfume/cosmetics manufacturing in Poltava Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Convict Mobilization: Successful integration of approximately 9500 convicts into AFU ranks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukraine-Denmark Drone Interceptor: Development of AI-powered drone interceptor with Denmark. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Netherlands Aid for AD/F-16: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting on specific Netherlands aid package highlights continued strong international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Car Market Rebound: RBC-Ukraine's report on increased demand for auto products in Ukraine projects economic resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ramstein Meeting Participation: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ highlighting high-level participation in Ramstein meeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Professionalism of UAF: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishing photos of UAF soldiers with weapons. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦's video contrasting an RF cynical message with a Ukrainian sentiment ("I am personally from Odessa and have no plans to join Russia") highlights Ukrainian identity and resistance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Diplomatic Engagement: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ showcasing Chief of General Staff's address to foreign diplomats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • F-16 Project: Повітряні Сили ЗС України publishes video showcasing an F-16 fighter jet. RBC-Україна reports Air Force received first unique mobile complexes for F-16 maintenance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF LNG Export Reduction: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Russia reduced liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 7% in the first half of the year due to sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Odesa Shahed Recovery: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the recovery of a Shahed UAV from the shore near Odesa. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow Drone Manufacturing Attack: РБК-Україна reports a car belonging to the head of a company manufacturing drones for occupiers was burned in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Frontline Reinforcement (Zaporizhzhia): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes photos reinforcing the Zaporizhzhia front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a video message about strengthening the front in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including increasing the defense fund to 3 billion hryvnias, constructing an anti-drone road on the Orikhivskyyi highway, and plans for over 200 km of such infrastructure. Mentions a meeting with the Minister of Defense and President Zelenskyy's decision on Ukraine's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention (anti-personnel mines), stating daily production and delivery of 1,000-2,000 mine components. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Materiel Acquisition/Resupply: STERNENKO provides photo and video messages showing a new batch of 417 drones delivered to the front line, and military personnel unboxing mortar rounds/artillery shells and expressing gratitude for the support. This indicates active and successful efforts to acquire and resupply critical materiel to frontline units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Tactical Setbacks:
  • Widespread Civilian Casualties and Damage: RF deep strikes resulted in 13 confirmed fatalities and numerous injuries across multiple oblasts, including a new fatality in Odesa and injured in Vasylivskyi District, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy. A woman injured in Kherson. A 10-year-old child killed and 7 injured in Kramatorsk due to KAB strike on a residential building. Now 12 injured for Sloviansk/Kramatorsk. Significant damage to civilian infrastructure confirmed. Civilian infrastructure in Dobropillia also hit. Colonelcassad reports "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk/Izium. Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. Civilian gas worker killed in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast. NEW: STERNENKO reports a woman was killed in Sumy due to a drone attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports RF attacked Sumy with drones in daylight, damaging a medical facility and playground, injuring a woman and a child. This is a new civilian casualty event. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports three injured, including two minors, in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) DeepState video alleges RF forces shot a local resident on a bicycle in Torske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • AD Munitions Expenditure: High rate of AD engagements indicates critical expenditure of interceptor munitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Continued RF Aerial Penetration: Despite high interception rates, RF missiles and drones continue to penetrate UAF AD. The KAB strike on Kramatorsk and Dobropillia are clear examples. Ballistic missile threat for Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk (Samarskyi district). A reconnaissance UAV detected in Mykolaiv Oblast. RF continues to target UAF UAV C2, as seen in Chasiv Yar and Krasnoarmeysk. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs over southeastern Sumy Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast, and southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Colonelcassad's use of "Harpy" drones for strikes in Orlivka, Sumy Oblast, further demonstrates RF's ability to penetrate. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Unconfirmed RF Ground Advances: RF claims of opening new front in Kharkiv, breakthroughs in Malaya Tokmachka, capturing Bila Hora, and liberating Varachino, and now Hrushevske and Novotoretske, if verified, would represent significant tactical setbacks. RF claim of advances near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast, if verified, would also be a setback. RF claim of UAF surrender in Popov Yar, if verified, is a localized setback. Claims of Rosgvardia successes in Sumy Oblast against UAF BREM and Gvozdika. RF claims Russian reconnaissance entered Krasnoarmeysk. Narodnaya милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles near Dachne. (CONFIDENCE: LOW for breakthroughs, MEDIUM for new front, MEDIUM for Starytsia, MEDIUM for Popov Yar surrender, MEDIUM for Varachino, MEDIUM for Rosgvardia claims, HIGH for Krasnoarmeysk reconnaissance, HIGH for Hrushevske and Novotoretske as per RF/DeepState claims, HIGH for Dachne as per RF claims). NEW: Рыбарь channel publishes photo/video indicating "Russian infantry in Pokrovsk." While the video is ambiguous, the claim itself suggests potential RF infiltration or presence in the area, which would be a localized UAF setback. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for claim, LOW for definitive visual verification). Воин DV publishes video claiming to show drone footage of an AFU armored vehicle being engaged in Pokrovsk by AIRNOMADS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Increased Risk to Western Aid Corridors: RF's expanded deep strike targeting of Western Ukraine implies growing need for enhanced security and hardening of logistical corridors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Putyvl Community Drone Strike: Civilian infrastructure in Putyvl community (Sumy Oblast) struck by RF drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Drone Losses: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports enemy shooting down more Ukrainian reconnaissance drones. Narodnaya милиция ДНР claims destruction of a "Baba Yaga" drone. NEW: Воин DV publishes drone video claiming the 305th Artillery Brigade used a Lancet loitering munition to strike a UAF Dana self-propelled howitzer, representing a loss of an SPG. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Civilian Friction (Mobilization): Unconfirmed report of "Gypsies attacking a TCC bus" points to social friction. The Chernihiv TCC incident further highlights the potential for public discontent. The shooting in Vasylkiv adds to a climate of internal security concerns. STERNENKO's commentary on potential legislation to undermine NABU/SAP independence indicates ongoing internal political challenges. Rada considering bill to limit NABU/SAP powers. NABU Director Krivonos called on Zelenskyy not to sign bill. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) STERNENKO publishes photo messages showing the list of MPs who voted for the bill to limit the independence of NABU and SAP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes a video of a parliamentary session where the bill was voted on. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF DRG Ambush in Pokrovsk: Colonelcassad video confirms an ambush by RF DRG on a UAF pickup truck in Pokrovsk. New video from "Операция Z" and Alex Parker Returns further corroborates and highlights this aggressive DRG activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • KAB Strike on Sumy: RF strike on Sumy with KABs resulted in damage and 12 civilian injuries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Loss of UAF Robotic Platform: Colonelcassad video shows a UAF robotic platform targeted and likely destroyed by an RF drone. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Civilian Risk in Zaporizhzhia Evacuation: TASS reports late evacuation notices in Zaporizhzhia Oblast from UAF may put civilians in active combat zones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Odesa Civilian Infrastructure Damage: Confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa due to RF UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Loss of D-20 Howitzer (Kherson): TASS reporting on the destruction of a UAF D-20 howitzer by RF FPV drones in Kherson Oblast represents a tactical loss. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Loss of UAF Artillery (South-Donetsk): Colonelcassad claim of destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit in South-Donetsk direction represents a tactical loss. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Disputed RF Drone Interception: "Два майора" claim of a Russian drone intercepting an enemy UAV is unverified and highly speculative. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Loss of UAF Unit (Dnipropetrovsk): TASS claims a UK-trained UAF unit was destroyed in Dnipropetrovets Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • UAF Personnel Loss (Sumy Direction): "Два майора" video showing FPV drone strike on a UAF soldier in Sumy direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Loss of UAF UAV C2: Colonelcassad's claim of destroying a UAF UAV command post near Chasiv Yar and MoD Russia's claim of destroying a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction represents a tactical setback. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Andriivka Civilian Displacement: Civilian testimonial indicates significant destruction and displacement in Andriivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Loss of Armored Vehicle/Personnel (Alexandrovgrad): RF drone footage from Воин DV claims destruction of UAF armored vehicles and personnel in Alexandrovgrad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Death of Civilian Prisoner: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the death of the oldest civilian prisoner, Oleksandr Markov (74), in Russian captivity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Tactical Vehicle Incident: Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle, moving along a road, with one appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) during movement. This indicates a tactical setback or operational challenge for RF ground forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Lack of REB for Artillery: The 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade's artillery unit appealing for EW systems highlights a critical gap in protection against enemy drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF POW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes a video featuring a blindfolded individual, identified as a POW, in camouflage, being questioned. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Black Sea Gas Facilities Attack: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Tactical Setbacks for RF (reported by UAF):
  • Swedish Mercenary Killed: Colonelcassad reports RF forces liquidated a Swedish mercenary, Andreas Mikael Evert Broman. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Military Aircraft Impact: "Два майора" publishes a video showing a military aircraft with an apparent explosion or impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.3. Resource requirements and constraints

• Critical Air Defense Munitions: Most urgent requirement is accelerated resupply of AD interceptors, especially for ballistic and hypersonic missile defense. Reported $6 billion procurement gap highlights this. Netherlands' contribution to Patriot systems and €200M for interceptor drones is positive but needs to be expedited. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Drones and Counter-Drone Capabilities: Ongoing urgent requirement for more drones (FPV and reconnaissance) for UAF units. Complementary REB means are critical. Appeals for drones underscore this need. The development of an AI-powered drone interceptor with Denmark is a positive long-term step. The 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade's artillery unit explicitly requesting EW systems highlights an immediate and critical need for counter-drone protection for frontline assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: STERNENKO reports a new batch of 417 drones delivered to the front line, indicating ongoing efforts to meet this requirement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Domestic Production Capabilities: President Zelenskyy's directive to increase Ukraine's share of domestic weapons production to 50% within six months indicates strategic shift. The introduction of Bohdana-BG howitzers is a positive step. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a video message about strengthening the front in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including President Zelenskyy's decision on Ukraine's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention (anti-personnel mines), stating daily production and delivery of 1,000-2,000 mine components, demonstrating UAF's adaptive and proactive defensive posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• International Financial Support: Continued and increased international financial support is vital, especially for AD systems and maintenance of armored vehicles (Netherlands €125M for F-16 maintenance). NATO's potential additional funding is significant. Participation in Ramstein confirms ongoing support. Ukraine will need at least $120 billion for defense next year. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Logistical Security: Increased targeting of Western Ukraine implies growing need for enhanced security and hardening of logistical corridors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Personnel Motivation/Well-being: Zelenskyy's emphasis on financial motivation suggests recognized need to boost morale and retention. The TCC incidents highlight the need for continued oversight of mobilization practices. Convict mobilization signals a widening of the recruitment pool. Focus on military pensions indicates attention to welfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Financial Resources for Defense Procurement: Stated need for $6 billion is a direct and pressing financial constraint. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Aid for Civilian Casualties: Recent KAB strike on Sumy and UAV strike on Odesa and Kherson highlights ongoing need for humanitarian aid and resources for civilian recovery. The KAB strike in Kramatorsk and drone/KAB attacks on Dobropillia and civilian displacement from Andriivka further emphasizes the immediate and critical need for humanitarian aid and civilian protection. The killing of a gas worker in Kupyansk further underscores civilian vulnerability and humanitarian needs. NEW: STERNENKO reports a woman was killed in Sumy due to a drone attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports RF attacked Sumy with drones in daylight, causing civilian injuries, highlighting continued need for medical and humanitarian aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Components for Domestic Drone Production: The GUR report on the origin of RF UAV components from China indicates a need for UAF to monitor and potentially disrupt RF's access to critical foreign components. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• F-16 Maintenance Capacity: The receipt of first unique mobile complexes for F-16 maintenance addresses a critical long-term requirement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Economic Reform: РБК-Україна reports Svrydenko's primary task as PM is to "increase exports," which is a critical economic resource requirement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Medical Support: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes multiple photo messages from a forum titled "Medical Front: experience, challenges, future" held in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, highlighting the need for continued focus and resources for military medicine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• EU Frozen Assets: РБК-Україна reports the EU wants to informally discuss the fate of frozen Russian assets. This could be a potential source of funding for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and disinformation campaigns

• Russian Federation (RF) Narratives:
  • Overwhelming Force & Ukrainian Weakness: RF amplifying scale of aerial attacks, especially Kinzhal strikes on Kyiv, to create sense of overwhelming force. Claims of UAF equipment and drone losses. RF also claiming UAF surrender in Popov Yar and capture of Varachino, and now Hrushevske and Novotoretske. RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight, including nine over Bryansk Oblast. WarGonzo provides updated maps. Confirmed KAB strike on Kramatorsk and Dobropillia used to portray overwhelming force. Claim of UK-trained UAF unit destroyed in Dnipropetrovsk aims to undermine confidence. FPV drone strike on UAF soldier in Sumy direction highlights RF tactical lethality. MoD Russia's "Feniks" in action video promotes tactical drone prowess. Kotsnews reporting on "Harpies" hunting. Rosgvardia's claimed successes in Sumy Oblast. RF claims Izium, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk hit military objects. RF milbloggers actively question the effectiveness of Western AD. Alex Parker Returns' military recruitment videos aim to project strength. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing military vehicles moving on a road, with one appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) during movement, and uses it to frame a success. Colonelcassad's video on "Harpy" drones and MoD Russia's on Uragan MLRS are used to highlight RF's kinetic capabilities and successes. Басурин о главном's sharing of Tucker Carlson's "Russia won" statement directly supports this narrative. Сливочный каприз's chart on increased offensive pace also supports the narrative of RF strength. Colonelcassad publishes video claiming "exemplary work" of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 5th Guards Tank Brigade drone operators in destroying AFU armored vehicles and personnel near Alexandrovgrad. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS firing rockets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Воин DV publishes drone video claiming the 305th Artillery Brigade used a Lancet loitering munition to strike a UAF Dana self-propelled howitzer, further reinforcing the narrative of RF tactical successes and UAF losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Рыбарь channel publishes photo and video implying "Russian infantry in Pokrovsk," supporting MLCOA for continued RF ground pressure and infiltration in the area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes video claiming to show drone footage of an AFU armored vehicle being engaged in Pokrovsk by AIRNOMADS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Басурин о главном publishes a photo message with the caption "Our daredevil is everywhere!", showing a smiling Russian soldier with a weapon, implying widespread success and presence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 posts a video showing drone-guided strikes on what appear to be Ukrainian positions, portraying successful RF military actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Victimhood: RF state media leveraging UAF drone attacks on Russian territory to portray Russia as victim. Amplified by TASS reporting on memorial for 5-year old boy in Kursk. The new civilian testimonial from Kursk Oblast and Mash on Donbas, and Andriivka, is a direct effort. TASS reports average of 400 UAF strikes on RF civilian objects per day. FPV drone attack in Belgorod, injuring two, further fuels this narrative. RF milblogger blaming UAF AD for civilian damage in Odesa is a direct information operation to shift blame. FSB reports and videos of alleged Ukrainian agents caught planning railway attacks further fuel this victimhood narrative. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. ASTRA reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. AV БогомаZ reports new "vile attacks" by Ukrainian Nazis. NEW: TASS reports three injured in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF strike, which will be leveraged to emphasize RF victimhood. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, reinforcing the narrative of external threats and justifying internal security measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Ukrainian Disunity/Corruption: RF sources heavily promoting narratives of internal corruption (NABU scandal – now claiming NABU loses Western "roof" due to Trump) and social friction (e.g., TCC and Romani incident, Syrsky's parents being treated in Moscow). The release of the POW interrogation video is a direct attempt to amplify perceived internal disunity. The dissemination of footage showing a violent TCC detention in Chernih by Colonelcassad is a direct and immediate RF information operation to exacerbate internal social tensions. TASS's claim of Latin American mercenaries fled Alexandrovgrad is intended to discredit foreign fighters. Bloomberg article by Mark Champion, amplified by TASS, on corruption potentially disrupting European weapon supplies. Операция Z's information operation about "traitors-Nazis from Russia" being handed over by Kyiv, with some committing suicide, reinforces this narrative. NEW: Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны report Western publications are again talking about Zelenskyy's authoritarianism after the curtailment of NABU powers, explicitly linking it to Western concerns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Stability & Development: Propaganda focuses on internal stability, economic resilience, and infrastructural development. TASS promotion of Russia's participation in international cultural events. The lifting of flight restrictions at Samara airport and Kaluga airport. The reporting on Mariupol port operations. RF internal reporting on criminal cases, economic meetings, and internal security operations also serve to project a focus on stability and governance. RF milbloggers' sharing of Orthodox Christian traditions also works to foster internal unity. Rostov Oblast's focus on UAV development signals innovation. RF MoD proposed salary increase for military personnel aims to project positive conditions. The reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed to project stability. News about Moscow's urban development reinforces the normalcy narrative. Putin's toughening of foreign vessel access is presented as a measure for national security. TASS reports on RF AI development. Север.Реалии reports on "Spiritual-Moral Culture" in schools. The recovery of Winelab stores from a cyberattack is used to project resilience. The funeral of Yuri Kara and the Chechen cultural festival are used for normalization. TASS reports the new Moskvich-8 car is on sale for 2.98 million rubles. TASS reports the Sheremetyevo airport is organizing recreation zones for passengers. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. Новости Москвы reports scientists have proven a four-day work week without salary reduction improves employee well-being. TASS reports the State Duma has approved the transfer of data regarding migrant children enrollment in schools to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, framing this as a measure of control and order. TASS reporting on the death of a State Duma Deputy from illness is a part of this internal political framing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports actor Steven Seagal has left one of his last projects in Russia, which could be framed as a natural internal business decision. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы publishes a review of a Huawei MatePad Pro, indicating internal focus on technology and consumer goods. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Historical Revisionism: Continued use of historical narratives to justify actions and demonize Ukraine. RF leveraging monument in Moldova to portray Ukraine as allied with Nazis. The cynical framing of Polish General Skrzypczak's death by RF milbloggers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "RF Tactical Success": Claims of ground advances (Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Malaya Tokmachka, Starytsia, Varachino, Krasnoarmeysk infiltration, Hrushevske, Novotoretske), effective DRG ambushes (Pokrovsk, Krasnoarmeysk), confirmed artillery destruction by FPV drones, and successful downing of UAF drones. Colonelcassad's claim of ELINT-driven UAF liquidation and destruction of a UAF UAV C2 highlights RF intelligence successes. New video of aggressive DRG activity in Pokrovsk and Krasnoarmeysk is being used. RF demining operations in Kharkiv and new fortifications in Luhansk are also highlighted. Rosgvardia's claimed destruction of a German BREM and Gvozdika. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone. Colonelcassad's use of "Harpy" drone strike video for Orlivka is direct propaganda of tactical success. MoD Russia's MLRS strike video also supports this. Colonelcassad publishes video claiming "exemplary work" of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 5th Guards Tank Brigade drone operators in destroying AFU armored vehicles and personnel near Alexandrovgrad. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS firing rockets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Воин DV publishes drone video claiming the 305th Artillery Brigade used a Lancet loitering munition to strike a UAF Dana self-propelled howitzer, showcasing a specific tactical success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Рыбарь channel publishing photo and video implying "Russian infantry in Pokrovsk," supports claims of RF ground presence in contested areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes video claiming to show drone footage of an AFU armored vehicle being engaged in Pokrovsk by AIRNOMADS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Басурин о главном publishes a photo message with the caption "Our daredevil is everywhere!", showing a smiling Russian soldier with a weapon, implying widespread success and presence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 posts a video showing drone-guided strikes on what appear to be Ukrainian positions, portraying successful RF military actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cynical/Demoralizing: RF milbloggers frequently employ cynical or mocking language. The cynical framing of the Polish General's death is a new, potent example. Colonelcassad uses derogatory term "Narkofyurer" (Narcodictator) for Zelenskyy. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦's video showing a wounded Ukrainian soldier with a cynical caption ("Motorcycle for the wheelchair, pup. Don't forget to attach it") is a highly cynical and demoralizing attempt. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) posts "Röhönaurua! 😂😂😂" (Roaring laughter!) with an unspecified image, indicating ongoing cynical/mocking content. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: НгП раZVедка provides a cynical and mocking commentary on the death of Polish General Waldemar Skrzypczak, attempting to demoralize the Ukrainian side and their international supporters. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Exploiting Perceived US Weakness: RF milbloggers attempting to exploit perceived "slow adoption" of advanced drone tactics by US military. TASS amplifies commentary critical of US support for Ukraine. TASS publishing the Jeffrey Sachs interview. TASS reporting on the US Congress Epstein case and the death of Polish General Skrzypczak. TASS also reports Trump plans to withdraw the US from UNESCO. TASS reports on Milan Mayor Sala's corruption suspicions. TASS reporting on Trump administration seeking SpaceX alternative for missile defense suggests a narrative of US internal challenges. РБК-Україна publishes a photo message implying Trump is seeking alternatives to SpaceX. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Trump, by rejecting Ukraine's NATO membership, swayed it towards negotiations with Russia. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception and suggest US/Ukraine disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a photo message highlighting the US integration of unmanned surface vessels (USVs) into naval special forces tactics, likely to implicitly highlight US vulnerabilities or to show a perceived lack of RF capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal RF Dissident Counter-Narrative: RF milbloggers actively countering perceived "traitors." (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) TASS reports investigators opened a criminal case against an internet channel administrator for extortion and public justification of terrorism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns publishes video claiming police officers who leaked information to Baza have been detained, along with five Baza employees including the editor-in-chief. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора reports detention of a Telegram channel author in Volgograd for extortion and public justification of Nazism, reinforcing the narrative of combating internal extremism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Projection of Public Support: RF channels publishing content designed to project widespread public support. TASS reports Gazmanov's call for artists to support SMO fighters. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Exploiting UAF POW Narratives: TASS actively using claimed UAF POW statements to portray desertion and low morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes a video featuring a blindfolded individual, identified as a POW, in camouflage, being questioned. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Global Power Dynamics: TASS is exploiting Donald Trump's statements about potential US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities to highlight US aggression. TASS reporting on Israeli advisor's negative comments regarding Gaza ceasefire further demonstrates RF's intent to highlight global disunity. TASS's reporting on RF MFA's expansion of banned EU officials reinforces a narrative of strong retaliation. WarGonzo reports a Russia-China-Iran trilateral meeting is planned today. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Acknowledgement of Drone Importance: "Два майора" milblogger's commentary acknowledging the need for pre-war drone focus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Addressing Equipment Needs: The appeal for thermal imagers from "Операция Z" is a dual-purpose message. NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition calls for help with civilian engineering equipment at the front, indicating an adaptive tactic to source needed materiel from civilian channels and leveraging public appeals. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zelenskyy Characterization: Военкор Котенок characterizes Zelenskyy as "monopolizing power" and becoming a "dictator." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad claims Zelensky has ordered NABU be crushed due to investigations into his circle, promoting a narrative of Ukrainian corruption and internal power struggles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NABU "Lost Western Roof" Narrative: Операция Z explicitly pushes the narrative that NABU is losing Western "cover" due to Trump's arrival. This is reinforced by TASS leveraging a Bloomberg article. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Старше Эдды echoes this, portraying Zelensky's actions against NABU as a move to remove American oversight and appease Trump. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны report Western publications are again talking about Zelenskyy's authoritarianism after the curtailment of NABU powers, explicitly linking it to Western concerns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Negotiation Narrative: TASS reports Peskov's statements on Istanbul negotiations control the narrative. TASS also states the Kremlin still believes Kyiv has not lifted its ban on negotiations with Putin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • U.S. Army Drone Grenade Drops: WarGonzo publishes photo message making a cynical claim about the U.S. Army "inventing" drone grenade drops. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Internal Police Actions (New): TASS reports investigators opened a criminal case against an internet channel administrator for extortion and public justification of terrorism. This will be used to reinforce the narrative of a strong state combating extremism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Север.Реалии reports that detentions related to the case of leaking official information occurred in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Krasnodar Krai, and Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Lithuanian Sentence for Desecration (New): TASS reports the military court sentenced Lithuanian Bartkevichius to 23 years in absentia for desecrating a military grave and other terror-related crimes in Kursk Oblast. This reinforces the narrative of RF taking strong action against perceived enemies and protecting its historical memory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Azerbaijan Claims (New): Оперативний ЗСУ reports Azerbaijan has submitted evidence to Russia of torture and murder of two Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg, which RF media may use to frame external interference or to control the narrative around internal issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Spiritual Values Legislation (New): TASS reports the State Duma has adopted a law to refuse distribution certificates for films that lack distribution certificates or discredit Russian spiritual and moral values, indicating continued control over the information space. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • China Asset Masking (New): Рыбарь publishes photo messages claiming China is masking US assets, used to highlight perceived US vulnerabilities or Chinese economic maneuvering. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vladikavkaz Threat (New): TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services. This is a key narrative element to portray Ukraine as a terrorist state. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kaluga Oblast Migrant Crime (New): Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on a crime involving migrant children in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend" and criticizing Russian authorities. This targets internal social issues to create divisions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukrainian (UAF) / Pro-Ukrainian Narratives:
  • German Domestic Preparedness: RBC-Ukraine's photo messages about Germany preparing for a "Putin attack" by potentially drafting women/pensioners for logistics duties appears to be a UAF or pro-Ukrainian information operation. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Highlighting RF Atrocities: The immediate release of video and photo evidence by RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU of civilian infrastructure damage and ongoing firefighting operations in Odesa, and RBC-Ukraine's reporting on casualties in Sumy from KABs, aims to highlight RF's targeting of civilians. The immediate and widespread reporting on the Kramatorsk KAB strike, emphasizing the child fatality, is a critical component. STERNENKO's statement "росіяни заслуговують тільки на смерть" reflects and amplifies the public outrage. The Prosecutor General's Office opening investigations into these attacks reinforces this. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the liquidation of Gennady Starunov, a Russian "Teacher of the Year 2022," who was mobilized. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the death of the oldest civilian prisoner in Russian captivity. STERNENKO reporting on the death of a gas worker in Kupyansk further highlights RF atrocities against civilians. NEW: STERNENKO reports a woman was killed in Sumy due to a drone attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports RF attacked Sumy with drones in daylight, damaging a medical facility and playground, and injuring a woman and a child. This is a direct immediate effort to highlight RF targeting of civilians. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: DeepState publishes video alleging RF forces shot a local resident on a bicycle in Torske, aiming to highlight RF atrocities against civilians. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UK Sanctions Effectiveness: Reporting on new UK sanctions against RF's "shadow fleet" tankers is a narrative promoting the effectiveness of international pressure. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Russia reduced liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 7% in the first half of the year due to sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emphasis on RF Losses: UAF General Staff provides regular updates on estimated RF combat losses. The 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade's video of "kill zone" operations effectively demonstrates RF losses. The reporting on HIMARS strikes against RF AD in Belgorod (if verified) will be a key narrative. STERNENKO provides video from "Sanitary Zone Flying Skull" showing drones on fiber optics flying into enemy positions, destroying a car, motorcycle, and enemy property and ammunition. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes drone video showing the 1st Separate Special Purpose Detachment of the Omega CSP successfully dropping a munition on five Russian occupiers, resulting in at least one fatality and multiple serious injuries, directly promoting UAF effectiveness. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video of 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade using FPV drones to destroy two pieces of RF mechanized equipment during an attempted assault, confirming successful engagement against armored targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 publishes drone footage showing the Khartia brigade's engagement against enemy personnel and a fuel depot in the Oskil region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes a video titled "FPV-storm from Slobozhansky paratroopers!", showing successful drone strikes on military targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Call for Donations: STERNENKO's call for donations ("Ранок треба починати із кави/чайку та донату на русоріз!") and his drone raffle are consistent messaging themes. РБК-Україна's video appeal for EW systems for the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade also serves as a call for support. NEW: STERNENKO provides photo and video messages showing a new batch of 417 drones delivered to the front line, and military personnel unboxing mortar rounds/artillery shells and expressing gratitude for the support. This is a direct appeal and demonstration of effective fundraising. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Internal Drone Attack: RBC-Ukraine reports on the drone attack on Samara Oblast, RF. РБК-Україна reports a car belonging to the head of a company manufacturing drones for occupiers was burned in Moscow. ASTRA confirms the Novosuybyshevsk oil refinery fire in Samara Oblast after a UAV attack, providing visual evidence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Commemoration of Fallen Soldiers: Daily minute of silence promotions by UAF General Staff and others reinforce national unity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Highlighting RF Components Sourcing: RBC-Ukraine's report on RF UAV components being largely from China is likely intended to pressure international partners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF PSYOPS for Surrender: The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade's video appealing to RF soldiers to surrender. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦's message "Treason is needed by the enemy, but the traitor is needed by no one!" is a counter-propaganda message. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Highlighting RF Internal Issues: STERNENKO's immediate reporting on the death of RF Supreme Court Chairman Podnosova. The reporting on the searches at Bryansk Vice-Governor's home. The raids on "Baza" media outlet, and the arrest of its editor-in-chief, will be highlighted as suppression of dissent. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. ASTRA reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. Operatsiya Z reports a criminal case for exceeding authority has been opened against police officers in Moscow who leaked information. Север.Реалии reports VKontakte blocked public pages. ASTRA reports a teenager claiming torture after detention. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: ASTRA reports a Sochi resident arrested for "discrediting" the RF army was transferred to a psychiatric hospital after an alleged suicide attempt, highlighting the severity of RF internal repression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Север.Реалии publishes a video showing a protest in Moscow, with an activist being detained for criticizing censorship and the war, highlighting RF internal suppression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Север.Реалии reports that detentions related to the case of leaking official information occurred in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Krasnodar Krai, and Belgorod Oblast, showing continued internal issues for RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Azerbaijan has submitted evidence to Russia of torture and murder of two Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg, highlighting RF's human rights issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Economic Reform: Zelenskyy's moratorium on business inspections, reported by RBC-Ukraine, promotes a narrative of economic reform. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAV Recruitment: DeepState's recruitment video for drone operators emphasizes active defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Convict Mobilization: RBC-Ukraine's reporting on convict mobilization in AFU highlights an adaptive approach. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukraine-Denmark Drone Interceptor: RBC-Ukraine highlighting joint AI-powered drone interceptor development showcases innovation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Netherlands Aid for AD/F-16: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting on specific Netherlands aid package highlights continued strong international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Car Market Rebound: RBC-Ukraine's report on increased demand for auto products in Ukraine projects economic resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ramstein Meeting Participation: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ highlighting high-level participation in Ramstein meeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Professionalism of UAF: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishing photos of UAF soldiers with weapons. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦's video contrasting an RF cynical message with a Ukrainian sentiment ("I am personally from Odessa and have no plans to join Russia") highlights Ukrainian identity and resistance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Diplomatic Engagement: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ showcasing Chief of General Staff's address to foreign diplomats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • F-16 Project: Повітряні Сили ЗС України publishes video showcasing an F-16 fighter jet. RBC-Україна reports Air Force received first unique mobile complexes for F-16 maintenance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Rearmament Spending: Кирило Буданов (Operatyvnyi ZSU) reporting on RF's $1.1 trillion rearmament plan by 2036 serves to emphasize the long-term threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NABU/SAP Independence: STERNENKO and Оперативний ЗСУ highlight the potential legislative changes that could undermine the independence of NABU and SAP. Rada considering bill to limit NABU/SAP powers. NABU Director Krivonos called on Zelenskyy not to sign bill. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes photo messages showing the list of MPs who voted for the bill to limit the independence of NABU and SAP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes a video of a parliamentary session where the bill was voted on. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine provides a photo message and detailed explanation of draft law 12414 concerning NABU and SAP powers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zelenskyy Meetings: Zelenskiy / Official posting photos of meetings on negotiation results. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms Rustem Umierov will lead Ukrainian negotiation delegation. NEW: Zelenskiy / Official posts a video of President Zelenskyy interacting with military personnel and civilians, presenting awards, reinforcing national unity and recognition of heroes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also publishes the same video from President Zelenskyy, further emphasizing the message of Ukrainian heroes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Illegal Logging: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports suspicion of an official of "Forests of Ukraine" for illegal enrichment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Friendly Civilian Infrastructure: Олександр Вілкул publishes multiple photo messages related to thermal modernization of education facilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukrainian Defense Budget: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ukraine will need at least $120 billion for defense next year, a direct call for continued international financial support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • POW Support: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими publishes photo messages about a meeting with families of 61st Separate Mechanized Steppe Brigade servicemen. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Front Reinforcement: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes photos showing reinforcement efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes a video message about strengthening the front in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including increasing the defense fund to 3 billion hryvnias, constructing an anti-drone road on the Orikhivskyyi highway, and plans for over 200 km of such infrastructure. Mentions a meeting with the Minister of Defense and President Zelenskyy's decision on Ukraine's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention (anti-personnel mines), stating daily production and delivery of 1,000-2,000 mine components. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Medical Front Forum: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes multiple photo messages from a forum titled "Medical Front: experience, challenges, future" held in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, highlighting attention to military medicine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • International Police Operation (New): Оперативний ЗСУ publishes photo messages about an international police special operation that identified a "pseudominer" of facilities in Czechia, Slovakia, and Latvia. This highlights international cooperation against threats, likely linked to RF-backed activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • US Alternative to SpaceX: РБК-Україна publishes a photo message implying Trump is seeking alternatives to SpaceX. This is likely aimed at highlighting perceived vulnerabilities or shifts in US support to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • EU Frozen Assets (New): РБК-Україна reports the EU wants to informally discuss the fate of frozen Russian assets, promoting a narrative of international financial pressure on RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Military Helicopter (New): Fighterbomber publishes video showing a military helicopter flying low over a field, likely used to emphasize RF air activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Sergeants (New): Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes multiple photos and captions about the role of a sergeant in the military, emphasizing training, motivation, and ideological conviction, likely promoting professional development and morale within the UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Torske Civilian Allegation (New): DeepState publishes video alleging RF forces shot a local resident on a bicycle in Torske, aiming to highlight RF atrocities against civilians. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public sentiment and morale factors

• Ukraine:
  • Resilience & Determination: Despite casualties and damage, public and official sentiment remains determined. The emotional language used by "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" regarding Odesa's suffering reflects high public anger and defiance. The death of a child in Kramatorsk will undoubtedly intensify public anger and resolve. Daily moments of silence and commemorations reinforce collective resolve. The Ukrainian sentiment in Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦's video ("I am personally from Odessa and have no plans to join Russia") reinforces Ukrainian identity and resistance. NEW: RBC-Ukraine's video from Sumy shows the acting mayor directly addressing citizens during a drone attack, emphasizing continued danger but aiming to maintain calm and resolve. NEW: Zelenskiy / Official posts a video of President Zelenskyy interacting with military personnel and civilians, presenting awards, reinforcing national unity and recognition of heroes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also publishes the same video from President Zelenskyy, further emphasizing the message of Ukrainian heroes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Concerns over Mobilization: Unverified report of "TCC bus attack" and the verified violent TCC detention in Chernihiv point to growing social friction. The shooting in Vasylkiv adds to a climate of internal security concerns. While convict mobilization is a necessity, its public reception needs monitoring. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Internal Security & Trust: NABU scandal and G7 ambassadors' concern could negatively impact public trust. The suspension of the President of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences also impacts trust, but anti-corruption efforts are generally positive. Zelenskyy's moratorium on business inspections aims to bolster trust. The new NABU information leak findings, and the potential for legislation to undermine NABU/SAP independence, will further strain public trust. Rada considering bill to limit NABU/SAP powers. NABU Director Krivonos called on Zelenskyy not to sign bill. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes photo messages showing the list of MPs who voted for the bill to limit the independence of NABU and SAP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes a video of a parliamentary session where the bill was voted on. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine provides a photo message and detailed explanation of draft law 12414 concerning NABU and SAP powers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Motivation for Military Personnel: Zelenskyy's emphasis on financial motivation suggests recognized need to boost morale. Appeals for equipment like those from the "Rubizh" brigade and STERNENKO's drone raffle indicate public engagement. The PSYOPS video offering incentives for surrender aims to lower RF morale and indirectly boost UAF morale. Focus on military pensions aims to boost morale. The 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade's appeal for EW systems suggests an immediate need that could impact morale if not addressed. NEW: STERNENKO's delivery of drones and munitions, and the gratitude expressed by soldiers, will boost morale by demonstrating effective support and resupply. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • High Morale: Visual evidence supports high morale among Ukrainian military personnel. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS's video showing Latin American volunteers training and expressing determination. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Impact of KAB/UAV Strikes: KAB strikes on urban centers like Sumy and UAV attacks on Odesa and now Kramatorsk and Dobropillia will continue to cause fear and distress. The visible damage in Odesa, amplified by local mayor photos and new video evidence, and civilian casualties in Odesa, Sumy, Vasylivskyi District, and Kherson will negatively impact local public morale. Civilian testimonial from Andriivka further emphasizes civilian suffering. RF milblogger blaming UAF AD for Odesa civilian damage attempts to sow public distrust in UAF. The killing of a gas worker in Kupyansk will contribute to public anger and distress. NEW: STERNENKO reports a woman was killed in Sumy due to a drone attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine's report on daylight drone attack on Sumy, injuring civilians, will cause further distress and anger. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: DeepState video alleges RF forces shot a local resident on a bicycle in Torske, which will contribute to public anger. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Risk to Civilians in Zaporizhzhia: RF reporting on late evacuation notices could generate negative public sentiment towards UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Stability in Key Cities: Statements like "Kryvyi Rih: Situation Controlled" aim to reassure local populations. Олександр Вілкул's reports on civilian infrastructure modernization also contribute to this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Economic Indicators: Increased car sales indicate some economic resilience. Fluctuations in currency exchange rates will be monitored for public impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Prisoner of War Welfare: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the death of the oldest civilian prisoner, Oleksandr Markov (74), in Russian captivity. This will likely cause public outrage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Medical Front: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) publishes multiple photo messages from a forum titled "Medical Front: experience, challenges, future" held in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, likely boosting public confidence in medical support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Religious Pressure: Стрелков Игорь Иванович's report on Ukrainian authorities mandating UOC to declare a break with ROC by August 18, or face prohibition, could lead to public division or discontent, particularly among religious communities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia:
  • Controlled Narrative: Public sentiment heavily influenced by state-controlled media. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Impact of UAV Attacks: Reports of airport closures, train delays, and internal incidents from UAF drone attacks likely cause inconvenience. TASS report on memorial for 5-year old boy in Kursk aims to generate sympathy. The new civilian testimonial from Kursk Oblast and Mash on Donbas, and Andriivka, is specifically designed to reinforce public sentiment of victimhood. RF MoD's elevated UAV interception numbers aim to reassure the public. The drone attack on Samara Oblast, if widely reported internally, could cause concern. FPV drone attack in Belgorod, injuring two, further fuels this narrative. FSB detention videos reinforce perceived threats. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. ASTRA reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. AV БогомаZ reports new "vile attacks" by Ukrainian Nazis. WarGonzo's commentary on Moscow airport drone attacks highlights public awareness of these incidents. NEW: TASS reports three injured in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF strike, which will generate public sympathy and victimhood narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, indicating public concern and state response. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on migrant crime in Kaluga Oblast, which could stir public resentment towards migrants. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mixed Morale Signals (Military): Interview with 35th Marine Brigade soldier criticizing leadership suggests underlying discontent. The proposed military salary increase aims to positively influence morale. Calls for equipment from channels like Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 and "Операция Z" indicate specific needs. Alex Parker Returns' recruitment videos are attempting to boost personnel. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the liquidation of Gennady Starunov, a Russian "Teacher of the Year 2022," who was mobilized. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle, moving along a road, with one appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) during movement, this could indicate issues impacting morale. Colonelcassad's video showing new motorcycles, while signaling logistical effort, also suggests specific equipment needs not fully met by official channels. NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition calls for help with civilian engineering equipment at the front, indicating a logistical gap that could impact morale if not addressed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Frictions: Public backlash in Sevastopol against Kadyrov's portrait and VK blocking of critical groups indicate underlying social and political frictions. The searches at Bryansk Vice-Governor's home highlight ongoing internal issues. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman, while framed as natural, could cause some internal uncertainty. Detentions in Crimea for monument desecration, the migrant detention in Tyumen, and the detention of Nadezhdin's staffer highlight internal tensions and state control. High-level corruption cases (Popov, Matsotsky) may generate public cynicism. The detention of foreign nationals for dancing in St. Petersburg and the raids on "Baza" media outlet, including the editor-in-chief's arrest, indicate strict social control. TASS provides video of the Baza office situation. Operatsiya Z reports a criminal case for exceeding authority has been opened against police officers in Moscow who leaked information. Север.Реалии reports VKontakte blocked public pages. ASTRA reports a teenager claiming torture after detention. The reported drought in Donbas and its horrific impact on water supply may create social distress in occupied territories. NEW: ASTRA reports a Sochi resident arrested for "discrediting" the RF army was transferred to a psychiatric hospital after an alleged suicide attempt, highlighting the severe consequences of internal dissent and potential mental health impacts. NEW: Север.Реалии publishes a video showing a protest in Moscow, with an activist being detained for criticizing censorship and the war, highlighting internal suppression affecting public sentiment. NEW: Север.Реалии reports that detentions related to the case of leaking official information occurred in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Krasnodar Krai, and Belgorod Oblast, which could impact public sentiment regarding internal security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора reports the author of a Volgograd Telegram channel was detained for extortion and public justification of Nazism, which could impact public perception of online freedom. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Normalization of Losses: Continued reporting on military casualties normalizes losses for the Russian public. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Impact of Arrests on Public Opinion: Detentions of alleged Ukrainian intelligence agents, hackers, and those involved in illegal migration are used to demonstrate internal security effectiveness. The arrest of Moldovan oligarch Plahotniuc, if widely reported, could be used to project RF's reach. TASS reports investigators opened a criminal case against an internet channel administrator for extortion and public justification of terrorism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Normalization of Foreign Entry: TASS report on simplified entry for foreigners aims to portray normalcy and openness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emphasis on cultural achievements attempts to boost public morale and divert from war-related stress. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. Новости Москвы reports scientists have proven a four-day work week without salary reduction improves employee well-being. TASS video from St. Petersburg Mikhailovsky Theater, depicting a film crew, aims to project cultural normalcy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports actor Steven Seagal has left one of his last projects in Russia, a seemingly minor cultural event that contributes to normalization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Новости Москвы publishes a review of a Huawei MatePad Pro, indicating internal focus on technology and consumer goods as distractions from conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Focus on Domestic Issues: TASS reporting on legislative proposals, criminal cases, and economic meetings signals attention to public welfare. Novorossiysk gas explosion will be managed as a domestic civil emergency. TASS report on RF AI development aims to project positive social development. Winelab cyberattack recovery promotes stability. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. TASS reports the Duma approved data transfer for migrant children to Interior Ministry, and the death of State Duma Deputy Mikhail Tarasenko. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on migrant crime in Kaluga Oblast, which could increase public demand for stricter migration policies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mariupol Port Operations: Reporting on the operational status of Mariupol port, aiming to demonstrate successful integration of occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Environmental Challenges: Mudslide in Kabardino-Balkaria and the damaged bridge may cause localized distress. The drought in Donbas is a significant concern. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Long-Term Military Spending: Буданов's report on Russia's $1.1 trillion rearmament plan by 2036, if publicized internally, could be used to demonstrate long-term strategic strength. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Military Personnel Support: TASS reports Gazmanov's call for artists to support SMO fighters for moral support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Transportation Fees: Новости Москвы reports that registration fees for vehicles and driver's licenses will increase from September 1, 2025, which may impact public sentiment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.3. International support and diplomatic developments

• Support for Ukraine (Strong, but Resource-Dependent):
  • Continued Military Aid: 29th Ramstein meeting yielded commitments for 5 Patriot systems (Germany/US), Canadian financial support, ammunition rounds, and drone funding. UK launching 50-day campaign. Norway ready to provide additional AD funding. Netherlands will provide a significant contribution to US Patriot systems, including €200M for interceptor drones and €125M for F-16 maintenance. Ramstein participation by UAF Minister of Defense highlights this. The 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade's artillery unit appealing for EW systems highlights a specific aid requirement. NEW: STERNENKO's reporting on the delivery of 417 drones and munitions highlights continued effectiveness of international and public support for materiel acquisition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Engagement: Ukraine actively engaging in international diplomacy. Chief of General Staff addressing foreign diplomats. Zelenskyy's meeting regarding negotiation results. Rustem Umierov will lead Ukrainian negotiation delegation in Istanbul. Zelenskyy's confirmation of new negotiations with Russia in Istanbul on 23/24 July. NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports that topics for the 3rd round of negotiations in Istanbul are yet to be determined, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Accountability Focus: Ukraine's continued push for Special Tribunal reinforces diplomatic objective. Completed investigation into illegal coal mining. Official of "Forests of Ukraine" notified of suspicion for illegal enrichment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора publishes a photo message stating the General Prosecutor's Office is systematically holding accountable individuals working for the enemy, highlighting the exposure and sentencing of "traitors." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ publishes photo messages about an international police special operation that identified a "pseudominer" of facilities in Czechia, Slovakia, and Latvia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Concerns over NABU Scandal: G7 Ambassadors expressing alarm over NABU scandal could negatively impact future aid. NABU and SAP official statement on draft law #12414. Rada considering bill to limit NABU/SAP powers. NABU Director Krivonos called on Zelenskyy not to sign bill. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes photo messages showing the list of MPs who voted for the bill to limit the independence of NABU and SAP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO publishes a video of a parliamentary session where the bill was voted on. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine provides a photo message and detailed explanation of draft law 12414 concerning NABU and SAP powers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • German Domestic Preparedness Narrative: The RBC-Ukraine photo message regarding Germany's preparedness potentially being tied to a "Putin attack" is a pro-Ukrainian narrative aimed at bolstering international resolve. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • New UK Sanctions: The UK's new sanctions on RF's "shadow fleet" tankers demonstrate continued and adaptive international pressure. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Russia reduced liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 7% in the first half of the year due to sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kramatorsk KAB Strike: The confirmed child fatality in Kramatorsk will likely galvanize international condemnation. The Prosecutor General's Office opening investigations into these attacks further solidifies the case for international action. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF UAV Components from China: GUR's report on RF UAV components sourced from China could be used diplomatically to pressure China. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • AI Drone Interceptor Development: Joint development of an AI-powered drone interceptor with Denmark strengthens international technological cooperation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • F-16 Project: The F-16 project video and news of mobile complexes for F-16 maintenance highlights international cooperation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Rearmament Spending: Budanov's report on RF's $1.1 trillion rearmament plan by 2036, if shared diplomatically, can be used to emphasize the enduring nature of the threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukrainian Defense Budget: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ukraine will need at least $120 billion for defense next year, a direct call for continued international financial support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Foreign Volunteer Recruitment: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS's video showing Latin American volunteers and their commander claiming 2,000 Colombians are fighting for Ukraine, if widely disseminated, could boost international support and recruitment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Norwegian Patriot Commitment (New Context): Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) reports Norwegian PM Støre stated no Patriot agreements yet, as Germany and Norway await US guarantees. This indicates ongoing negotiations and potential delays, despite previous positive reports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • US Alternative to SpaceX: РБК-Україна publishes a photo message implying Trump is seeking alternatives to SpaceX. This is likely aimed at highlighting perceived vulnerabilities or shifts in US support to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • EU Frozen Assets (New): РБК-Україна reports the EU wants to informally discuss the fate of frozen Russian assets, promoting a narrative of international financial pressure on RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Support for Russia (Limited, but Stable):
  • Iran Military Cooperation: Continued military cooperation between Iran and Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Economic Cooperation: Hungary's discussions with Serbia on oil pipeline for Russian oil indicate continued economic cooperation. TASS reporting on Mishustin meeting regarding grain exports also highlights economic cooperation. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • China's Stance: China's statement about "decisive measures" can be interpreted by RF as continued diplomatic backing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Dialogue (Selective): Russia maintains diplomatic engagement with "friendly countries" and is willing to engage in negotiations with Ukraine. TASS reports Peskov's statements on Istanbul negotiations control the narrative. TASS also states the Kremlin still believes Kyiv has not lifted its ban on negotiations with Putin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Resilience to Sanctions: Russia managing impact of sanctions and adapting to economic pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Speculation on Putin-Trump Meeting: Continued speculation in RF media about Putin-Trump meeting projects future high-level diplomatic relevance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Iran's Stance on US Negotiations: Iran's statement to TASS that it is "not ready for direct negotiations with the US" reinforces narrative of united front. TASS is amplifying Donald Trump's statements about potential US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cultural Diplomacy: RF's promotion of participation in international music contests and religious traditions can be viewed as an attempt to project an image of normalcy. The funeral of Yuri Kara and the Chechen cultural festival are also elements of this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Russian synchronized swimmers took second place at the World Championship. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • North Korean Military Aid: The reported use of 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from North Korea (DPRK) indicates that RF continues to draw upon a limited but persistent network of international military support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Disagreement (Gaza): TASS reporting on Israeli advisor's rejection of the 25-country FM statement on Gaza ceasefire illustrates ongoing international disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Slovakia Gas Deal: Slovakia's reported plan to receive up to 100% of its gas from Russia next year demonstrates a continued economic link with an EU member. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Jeffrey Sachs Interview: TASS publishing the interview with Jeffrey Sachs criticizing the US role serves to legitimize RF narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kazakhstan-Russia Law Enforcement Cooperation: The meeting between Kazakhstan and Russian Federation law enforcement officials demonstrates continued bilateral cooperation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Bloomberg Article on Corruption: TASS leveraging Bloomberg's article on corruption in Ukraine potentially disrupting European weapon supplies indicates a direct and adaptive diplomatic effort to undermine aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pope Dialogue with ROC: Pope's reported desire to restore dialogue with Russian Orthodox Church indicates a potential avenue for soft diplomacy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Retaliation: RF MFA's expansion of banned EU officials indicates continued diplomatic retaliation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Exploitation of US Internal Politics: TASS reports on the US Congress Epstein case. TASS reports on Milan Mayor Sala's corruption suspicions. TASS reporting on Trump administration seeking SpaceX alternative for missile defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cynical Exploitation of Adversary's Death: RF milbloggers' cynical commentary on the death of Polish General Skrzypczak. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: НгП раZVедка provides a cynical and mocking commentary on the death of Polish General Waldemar Skrzypczak, indicating continued diplomatic aggression through information warfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moldovan Oligarch Arrest: TASS reporting on the arrest of Moldovan oligarch Plahotniuc in Greece, if framed as an RF-driven effort, could project RF's influence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Lithuanian Military Exercises: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА publishes graphic on Lithuanian military exercises near Belarus border, indicating RF monitoring of NATO/allied activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tucker Carlson Interview: Басурин о главном leveraging Tucker Carlson's statement ("Russia won") demonstrates RF attempts to gain external validation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Polish Call to Leave RF: Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны report Poland is calling its citizens to leave Russia, which RF will likely leverage to portray Western overreach and escalation. Военкор Котенок also reports Poland warning its citizens to leave RF territory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes a photo message stating Poland is urging its citizens to leave Russia by all possible means. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Trump UNESCO Withdrawal: Colonelcassad highlights Trump's decision to withdraw the US from UNESCO, which RF will likely leverage to portray US disengagement from international norms and institutions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • US Unmanned Surface Vessels (USV): "Два майора" publishes a photo message highlighting the US integration of unmanned surface vessels (USVs) into naval special forces tactics, likely to highlight the growing importance of drone warfare and the perceived threat from US technology. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Azerbaijan Claims (New): Оперативний ЗСУ reports Azerbaijan has submitted evidence to Russia of torture and murder of two Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg, which could be leveraged by RF to show external attempts to destabilize. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • China Asset Masking (New): Рыбарь publishes photo messages claiming China is masking US assets, which RF may use to highlight perceived US vulnerabilities or Chinese economic maneuvering. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Trump on Ukraine/NATO (New): TASS reports Trump, by rejecting Ukraine's NATO membership, swayed it towards negotiations with Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most likely enemy courses of action (MLCOA)

• Sustained Multi-Domain Deep Strike Campaign: RF will continue its high-volume, multi-vector aerial assault using Shaheds (42 planned for this morning), cruise missiles (from Tu-95MS), and ballistic missiles, including Kinzhals, against critical infrastructure and urban centers across Ukraine, with a particular focus on Kyiv and Western logistics hubs. The aim is to deplete UAF AD, disrupt logistics, and exert psychological pressure. Expect sustained Shahed activity in Southern Oblasts, including Mykolaiv and Odesa, and further probes into Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava, and now towards Kryvyi Rih. Expect sustained aviation munitions threats to Donetsk (including Dobropillia, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk) and Sumy oblasts, including continued KAB strikes on urban centers. The confirmed damage and casualties in Odesa, Sumy, Kramatorsk, and Dobropillia suggest continued willingness to directly target and terrorize urban populations in the South, Northeast, and East with UAVs and KABs. Ballistic missile threats will continue, as seen in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk. Expect continued use of advanced loitering munitions/PGMs (e.g., "Harpies"). RF will continue to target UAF UAV control posts (e.g., Krasnoarmeysk direction, Chasiv Yar). RF will continue to attempt to shift blame for civilian casualties onto UAF AD (e.g., Odesa Shkolny airfield incident). Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. Старше Эдды publishes drone video showing an FPV drone strike on a building, followed by a fire, and the Ukrainian flag on a damaged structure. KAB launches confirmed on Sumy Oblast, and UAV heading to Odesa and Kryvyi Rih, and reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy, Chernihiv, and Zaporizhzhia. Colonelcassad's video on "Harpy" drone strikes in Orlivka, Sumy Oblast, and MoD Russia's video on Uragan MLRS strikes on Temirovka, Zaporizhzhia, confirm these types of attacks will continue. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS firing rockets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports RF attacked Sumy with drones in daylight, damaging a medical facility and playground. This indicates an MLCOA for continued daylight drone attacks on civilian areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts, confirming continued and adaptive use of guided bombs against these regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes video showing residents of Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, visually monitoring a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike on a Ukrainian "occupation formation" object. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a video showing a military aircraft, likely a fighter jet, in flight during low-light conditions, with apparent explosion or impact, indicating MLCOA for continued air strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Continued Ground Attrition in Donbas: RF will maintain relentless, attritional ground assaults across the Eastern axis (Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Chasiv Yar, Velyka Novosilka, Krasny Liman), likely attempting to leverage any perceived advances (Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Hrushevske, Novotoretske, Dachne) to achieve tactical breakthroughs, even if localized. The claimed UAF surrender in Popov Yar signals continued RF pressure in this area. WarGonzo maps indicate continued focus on these areas. The sustained and aggressive DRG activity in Pokrovsk and claimed reconnaissance infiltration into Krasnoarmeysk indicates RF will continue to probe and attempt localized gains in this sector. RF will continue to reinforce positions with fortifications and engineering efforts (e.g., Chervona Dibrova). Expect continued efforts to disrupt UAF UAV C2 (Chasiv Yar, Krasnoarmeysk). Liveuamap Source details widespread clashes across these axes. TASS reports RF forces are straightening the front in the Dimitrov direction after liberating Novotoretskoye in DNR. Сливочный каприз's chart on increased offensive pace confirms this pattern. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Рыбарь channel publishing photo and video implying "Russian infantry in Pokrovsk," supports MLCOA for continued RF ground pressure and infiltration in the area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes video claiming to show drone footage of an AFU armored vehicle being engaged in Pokrovsk by AIRNOMADS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video of 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade using FPV drones to destroy two pieces of RF mechanized equipment during an attempted assault, confirming RF ground force engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Probing and Shaping Operations on Northern/Southern Axes: RF will continue reconnaissance-in-force, localized ground assaults, and drone/KAB strikes in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts (including areas like Starytsia, and claimed liberation of Varachino), and along the Zaporizhzhia front (Malaya Tokmachka, Kamyanske, Orikhiv, Alexandrovgrad). This is aimed at fixing UAF reserves, identifying weaknesses, and creating conditions for potential larger-scale offensives. Expect continued drone reconnaissance and targeting by units like "Anvar" in border regions of Sumy and Chernihiv, and tactical FPV drone strikes against UAF artillery and equipment, as demonstrated in Kherson and South-Donetsk directions, supported by ELINT. Expect continued FPV drone targeting of individual UAF personnel in border areas (e.g., Sumy direction), and FPV strikes in Belgorod Oblast. MoD Russia's "Feniks" video suggests continued tactical drone operations. WarGonzo maps will likely reflect continued localized changes on these fronts. RF will continue demining operations in areas like Kharkiv. Expect continued reconnaissance UAV activity in Mykolaiv Oblast, and now toward Kryvyi Rih. Rosgvardia will continue tactical pushes in Sumy Oblast. Tactical ground movements by RF APCs are expected. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle, moving along a road, with one appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) during movement, indicating ongoing tactical movement. Liveuamap Source details widespread clashes across Eastern axes. TASS claims RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske in DNR. MoD Russia officially reports liberation of Novotoretskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic). Операция Z states “Отважные” liberated Novotoretskoe in DNR. Kotsnews also reports Russian army liberated Novotoretskoe. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports DeepState analysis that RF army occupied Hrushevske and advanced near Voskresenka, Orikhove, Mayak and Zatyhka (formerly Suvorove) in Donetsk Oblast. Narodnaya милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles near Dachne. "Два майора" publishes a video claiming to show the work of special forces units in the enemy's rear, with an ambush on a vehicle. TASS reports RF forces are straightening the front in the Dimitrov direction after liberating Novotoretskoe in DNR. Colonelcassad publishes video claiming "exemplary work" of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 5th Guards Tank Brigade drone operators in destroying AFU armored vehicles and personnel near Alexandrovgrad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Air Force reports a likely reconnaissance UAV heading north towards Sumy city, indicating continued MLCOA for border reconnaissance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Воин DV publishes drone video claiming the 305th Artillery Brigade used a Lancet loitering munition to strike a UAF Dana self-propelled howitzer, indicating continued MLCOA for precision tactical strikes against UAF artillery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs near Kulikivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Slatyne, Stary Saltiv (Northern Kharkiv Oblast), and Ughroidy (Eastern Sumy Oblast) moving from the west. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Intensified Information Operations: RF will continue to heavily propagandize its claimed successes (ground gains, AD effectiveness, Kinzhal strikes, D-20 destruction, Mariupol port operations, UAF surrender in Popov Yar, capture of Varachino, Hrushevske, Novotoretske, high UAV interception rates over its own territory, ELINT successes, destruction of UK-trained UAF unit, FPV strike on UAF soldier, successful tactical drone operations, destruction of UAF UAV C2, Rosgvardia successes in Sumy, "Baba Yaga" drone destruction, Alexandrovgrad strike, AFU armored vehicles near Dachne, RF tactical vehicle "falling out"), exploit internal Ukrainian issues (NABU scandal – now framed as losing Western support due to Trump, mobilization friction amplified by TCC incidents, POW narratives, and civilian testimonials from border regions and conflict zones like Donbas and Andriivka, and civilian casualties from UAF attacks in RF territory, UOC breaking with ROC), and frame itself as a victim of "Ukrainian aggression" to manage domestic sentiment and influence international perceptions. Expect RF to leverage US statements on Iran and internal US political issues (Epstein case, Trump UNESCO withdrawal, Milan Mayor corruption, China masking US assets), and international disagreements on conflicts like Gaza to further its narrative of Western aggression and disunity. Expect an increase in normalization propaganda (e.g., cultural events, economic updates, social welfare proposals like military salary increases, airport normalization, internal crime reports, grain exports, religious traditions, addressing internal hacking issues, Slovakia gas deal, focus on "spiritual and moral culture" in schools, urban development in Moscow, death of Supreme Court Chairman, Moscow news on employment sectors and "brain drain", RF AI development, Winelab cyberattack recovery, funeral of Yuri Kara, Chechen festival, new Moskvich car sales, airport recreation zones, 4-day work week benefits, IT military deferrals, Supreme Court memorial, Yuri Kara funeral, domestic banana saplings, arts support for SMO, beer production) for domestic consumption to counter war fatigue. The immediate use of a captured UAF soldier for propaganda indicates this will be a continued and adaptive tactic. TASS will continue to disseminate analyses from figures like Jeffrey Sachs to influence international discourse. RF will also continue to try and discredit Ukrainian leadership (e.g., Zelenskyy as dictator, Syrsky as "agent"). RF will continue using the Bloomberg article about Ukrainian corruption to undermine Western aid. RF will continue to leverage events like the death of Polish General Skrzypczak for cynical propaganda. RF MFA statements will continue to frame Western actions as hostile. FSB detention videos will be used to demonstrate counter-terrorism effectiveness. Raids on "Baza" media outlet and the arrest of its editor-in-chief will be used to demonstrate strict information control. TASS provides video of the Baza office situation. RF will also project its ability to pursue alleged criminals internationally (Moldovan oligarch, Azerbaijan torture claims). TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. TASS reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. Colonelcassad confirms FSB detentions and uses photos for propaganda. Сливочный каприз publishes video showing volunteer aid delivery to the 70th regiment. Север.Реалии reports VKontakte blocked public pages criticizing the head of the Vologda region. TASS reports on the migration policy. TASS reports the ban on child toy sales in Kandahar, Afghanistan. WarGonzo reports on the Russia-China-Iran nuclear meeting. TASS reports Gazmanov's call for artists to support SMO fighters for moral support. Басурин о главном's use of Tucker Carlson's statement about Russia "winning" is likely to be a sustained narrative point. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦's cynical video and caption ("Motorcycle for the wheelchair, pup. Don't forget to attach it") highlights the continued demoralization efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports three injured in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF strike, which will be leveraged to emphasize RF victimhood. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, reinforcing the narrative of external threats and justifying internal security measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора reports detention of a Telegram channel author in Volgograd for extortion and public justification of Nazism, reinforcing the narrative of combating internal extremism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on migrant crime in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend" to stir social unrest and criticize migration policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Trump, by rejecting Ukraine's NATO membership, swayed it towards negotiations with Russia. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception and suggest US/Ukraine disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Negotiation as Information Warfare: RF will likely use the upcoming Istanbul negotiations primarily as an information operation to signal a willingness for dialogue while continuing kinetic operations, potentially aiming to portray Ukraine as unwilling or unreasonable if talks falter. TASS reports Peskov stated that the discussion of draft memorandums between Moscow and Kyiv will be the topic of negotiations in Istanbul. TASS also reports the Kremlin expects the new round of direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations to take place this week. TASS reports Peskov stated that Moscow and Kyiv need to work a lot before discussing prospects for a summit meeting. TASS reports that the Kremlin still operates under the premise that Kyiv has not lifted the ban on negotiations with Putin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Increased Counter-UAV Measures in RF Territory: RF will continue to attempt to intercept UAF drones over its territory, with reported success rates for smaller UAVs, as demonstrated by the recent repelling of attacks in Rostov and other areas, including Tula and Bryansk Oblasts. RF will also prioritize domestic UAV development (e.g., Rostov Oblast) to enhance its own capabilities and counter-capabilities, while continuing to rely on foreign components (e.g., from China). The drone attack on Samara Oblast will reinforce RF's focus on internal AD and drone development. RF will continue to highlight successful counter-drone operations (e.g., "Baba Yaga" destruction). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a video showing a military aircraft, likely a fighter jet, in flight during low-light conditions, with apparent explosion or impact, possibly reflecting increased counter-UAV measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Continued Use of Diverse Artillery Systems: RF will likely continue to deploy and utilize a variety of artillery systems, including potentially newly sourced ones like the North Korean 107-mm MLRS "Type-75", and systems like Uragan MLRS, to sustain fire support for ground operations and target UAF positions. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS firing rockets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Воин DV publishes drone video claiming the 305th Artillery Brigade used a Lancet loitering munition to strike a UAF Dana self-propelled howitzer, followed by additional fire from a "Hyacinth" artillery system, confirming the MLCOA for combined arms/precision artillery strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sustained Naval Logistics and Presence: RF will continue to use its naval assets for global logistics, including escorting cargo vessels, and maintaining a presence in strategic waterways to support its military and economic interests. Putin's toughening of foreign vessel access will impact commercial shipping. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Security Operations: RF will maintain focus on internal security, including counter-intelligence (FSB reports, St. Petersburg detentions, Pensioner treason case, Transbaikal torture claims), anti-corruption efforts (e.g., Bryansk Vice-Governor searches – now confirmed detention and charges, Popov case, Matsotsky case, illegal logging investigation), and migration control (Tyumen migrant detention, new migration law, Duma approval of data transfer for migrant children). The focus on the death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be to demonstrate the legal system's stability. RF will also continue to suppress political opposition (Nadezhdin's staffer detention) and enforce control over occupied territories (Crimea monument desecration detentions). RF authorities will manage civilian incidents like the Novorossiysk gas explosion. RF MFA will continue to retaliate against EU actions. RF will continue to conduct raids on independent media, escalating enforcement as seen with the Baza editor-in-chief's arrest. TASS provides video of the Baza office situation. RF will also project its ability to pursue alleged criminals internationally (Moldovan oligarch, Azerbaijan torture claims). TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. TASS reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. Colonelcassad confirms FSB detentions and uses photos for propaganda. Сливочный каприз publishes video showing volunteer aid delivery to the 70th regiment. Север.Реалии reports VKontakte blocked public pages. TASS reports on the migration policy. TASS reports the ban on child toy sales in Kandahar, Afghanistan. WarGonzo reports on the Russia-China-Iran nuclear meeting. TASS reports IT deferrals for military service are open. ASTRA reports a pensioner from Izhevsk was sentenced for treason but released due to health. TASS reports State Duma adopted law on fines for searching extremist materials and advertising VPNs. TASS reports Duma adopted an amendment fining citizens for disclosing state secrets in media. TASS reports no plans to block foreign messengers, but compliance with requirements. TASS reports investigators opened a criminal case against an internet channel administrator for extortion and public justification of terrorism. TASS reports the military court sentenced Lithuanian Bartkevichius to 23 years in absentia for desecrating a military grave and other terror-related crimes in Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, reinforcing the MLCOA for internal security and counter-terrorism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора reports detention of a Telegram channel author in Volgograd for extortion and public justification of Nazism, reinforcing the MLCOA for internal security operations and control over information. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on migrant crime in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend" and criticizing Russian authorities. This indicates an MLCOA for internal security measures and exploiting social issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Long-Term Military Modernization: Based on Budanov's report, RF will continue to invest significantly in rearmament and military modernization, impacting the conflict in the long-term. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• International Diplomatic Engagements: RF will continue to engage in strategic international diplomacy, as seen with the Russia-China-Iran nuclear meeting, to bolster its global position and partnerships. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5.2. Most dangerous enemy courses of action (MDCOA)

• Coordinated Multi-Front Offensive with Strategic Deep Strike (CATACLYSMIC): RF conducts a synchronized, large-scale ground offensive on multiple axes, most dangerously combining a major thrust into Sumy and/or Kharkiv Oblasts (committing operational reserves) with an exploitation of the claimed breakthrough in Malaya Tokmachka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). This offensive would be coordinated with a sustained, exceptionally high-volume multi-domain deep strike campaign designed to fully deplete UAF AD and interdict all major Western aid logistics corridors, aiming for a rapid collapse of UAF defensive lines on multiple, non-contiguous fronts. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Chemical/Biological Weapon Use (ESCALATORY, LOW PROBABILITY): Although low probability, the RF claim of Ukraine using toxic chemicals to the OPCW could be a flag for a false flag operation, where RF could use such weapons and blame Ukraine, leading to a massive escalation. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
• Targeted Assassination/Disruption of UAF Leadership (HYBRID): Exploiting internal security concerns (NABU scandal) or leveraging DRG capabilities, RF conducts a high-profile assassination or significant disruption operation against key UAF military or political leadership (e.g., General Shapovalov, President Zelenskyy, now specifically Syrsky based on new RF information ops) to sow chaos and cripple C2. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
• Targeted Strike on High-Value Military Airfields/Bases in Ukraine (ESCALATORY): Given the confirmed UAF deep strike on Millerovo and reported HIMARS strikes on RF AD assets, RF may retaliate with a concentrated, high-precision strike using Kinzhals and cruise missiles against a key UAF military airfield or command center in Ukraine, beyond simply a "defense industrial complex" target, aiming to significantly degrade UAF air or C2 capabilities. This MDCOA would be distinct from general deep strikes by focusing on a singular, high-impact military target. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Exploitation of Civilian Evacuation Issues: RF attempts to exploit any perceived UAF missteps in civilian evacuation, particularly in Zaporizhzhia, to create humanitarian crises or demoralize the population. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Direct Naval Interdiction of Maritime Aid/Trade: RF Black Sea Fleet directly interdicts or attacks commercial vessels in the Black Sea, escalating naval warfare and severely impacting Ukraine's maritime trade and aid routes. This would be a high-risk move with significant international repercussions but could be an MDCOA if RF seeks to completely choke off Ukrainian maritime access. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
• Major Cyberattack on Critical Ukrainian Infrastructure: RF conducts a large-scale, coordinated cyberattack targeting critical civilian infrastructure (e.g., energy grid, financial systems, transportation networks) to cause widespread societal disruption and panic, undermining the government's ability to function and eroding public morale. This would likely be coordinated with kinetic strikes. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

5.3. Timeline estimates and decision points

• Immediate (Next 24-48 hours):
  • Aerial Strikes: High probability of continued, albeit potentially smaller, RF missile and drone strikes (42 Shaheds launched overnight). UAF AD will remain heavily engaged. Expect sustained Shahed activity in Southern and Eastern Oblasts, particularly targeting Odesa and Mykolaiv regions. Expect aviation munitions threats to Donetsk (including Dobropillia, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk) and Sumy, including continued KAB strikes on urban centers. Ballistic missile threats will continue for exposed areas like Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk (Samarskyi district), and now Kyiv. Reconnaissance UAV activity in Mykolaiv is likely, and now towards Kryvyi Rih. Expect continued use of advanced loitering munitions/PGMs (e.g., "Harpies"). RF will continue to target UAF UAV control posts (e.g., Krasnoarmeysk direction, Chasiv Yar). RF will continue to attempt to shift blame for civilian casualties onto UAF AD (e.g., Odesa Shkolny airfield incident). Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. Старше Эдды publishes drone video showing an FPV drone strike on a building, followed by a fire, and the Ukrainian flag on a damaged structure. KAB launches confirmed on Sumy Oblast, and UAV heading to Odesa and Kryvyi Rih, and reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy, Chernihiv, and Zaporizhzhia. Colonelcassad's video on "Harpy" drone strikes in Orlivka, Sumy Oblast, and MoD Russia's video on Uragan MLRS strikes on Temirovka, Zaporizhzhia, confirm these types of attacks will continue. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes a video showing a Grad MLRS firing rockets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports RF attacked Sumy with drones in daylight, damaging a medical facility and playground. This indicates an MLCOA for continued daylight drone attacks on civilian areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts, confirming continued and adaptive use of guided bombs against these regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad publishes video showing residents of Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, visually monitoring a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike on a Ukrainian "occupation formation" object. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo reports two civilian fatalities in Nova Kakhovka from a drone strike on a minibus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes photo messages claiming dozens of drone strikes on gas production facilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a video showing a military aircraft, likely a fighter jet, in flight during low-light conditions, with apparent explosion or impact, indicating MLCOA for continued air strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Probes: RF will continue probing attacks and reconnaissance-in-force on all axes, especially Kharkiv (including Starytsia, and claimed Varachino), Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia (including Malaya Tokmachka, Alexandrovgrad, Kamyanske, Orikhiv, Dachne). This is aimed at fixing UAF reserves, identifying weaknesses, and creating conditions for potential larger-scale offensives. Expect continued border operations by units like "Anvar" and tactical FPV drone strikes against UAF assets (e.g., artillery), possibly driven by ELINT. Expect continued FPV drone targeting of individual UAF personnel in border areas (e.g., Sumy direction), and FPV strikes in Belgorod Oblast. MoD Russia's "Feniks" video suggests continued tactical drone operations. WarGonzo maps will likely show continued tactical engagements. Expect continued aggressive RF DRG activity, particularly in areas like Pokrovsk and claimed Krasnoarmeysk infiltration. RF will continue demining and fortification efforts in contested areas. Continued engagements in Velyka Novosilka and Krasnolimanskoye directions. Rosgvardia will continue tactical pushes in Sumy Oblast. Tactical ground movements by RF APCs are expected. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle, moving along a road, with one appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) during movement, indicating ongoing tactical movement. Liveuamap Source details widespread clashes across Eastern axes. TASS claims RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske in DNR. MoD Russia officially reports liberation of Novotoretskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic). Операция Z states “Отважные” liberated Novotoretskoe in DNR. Kotsnews also reports Russian army liberated Novotoretskoe. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports DeepState analysis that RF army occupied Hrushevske and advanced near Voskresenka, Orikhove, Mayak and Zatyhka (formerly Suvorove) in Donetsk Oblast. Narodnaya милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of AFU armored vehicles near Dachne. "Два майора" publishes a video claiming to show the work of special forces units in the enemy's rear, with an ambush on a vehicle. TASS reports RF forces are straightening the front in the Dimitrov direction after liberating Novotoretskoye in DNR. Colonelcassad publishes video claiming "exemplary work" of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 5th Guards Tank Brigade drone operators in destroying AFU armored vehicles and personnel near Alexandrovgrad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Рыбарь channel publishing photo and video implying "Russian infantry in Pokrovsk," supports MLCOA for continued RF ground pressure and infiltration in the area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV publishes video claiming to show drone footage of an AFU armored vehicle being engaged in Pokrovsk by AIRNOMADS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video of 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade using FPV drones to destroy two pieces of RF mechanized equipment during an attempted assault, confirming RF ground force engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Negotiations: The announced Istanbul negotiations on 23/24 July are a critical diplomatic event to monitor for any shifts in RF posture or demands. Decision points for UAF will revolve around the tenor and outcome of these talks. Zelenskyy's meeting notes for negotiation work indicate preparation. TASS reports Peskov stated that the discussion of draft memorandums between Moscow and Kyiv will be the topic of negotiations in Istanbul. TASS also reports the Kremlin expects the new round of direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations to take place this week. TASS reports Peskov stated that Moscow and Kyiv need to work a lot before discussing prospects for a summit meeting. TASS reports that the Kremlin still operates under the premise that Kyiv has not lifted the ban on negotiations with Putin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports that topics for the 3rd round of negotiations in Istanbul are yet to be determined, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cyber Attacks: Continued RF cyber activity is likely given the neutralization of the NoName057(16) network, indicating continued intent to disrupt UAF infrastructure. RF will continue internal cyber security operations against perceived threats (e.g., Novosibirsk arrest, Winelab cyberattack recovery, Ural journalist "justifying terrorism" case). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Retaliatory Strikes: Increased probability of RF retaliatory deep strikes following the Millerovo airfield attack and reported HIMARS strikes on RF AD. Alex Parker Returns highlights a claimed HIMARS strike on S-400 in Belgorod, which could prompt RF retaliation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Operations: RF will continue to use POW statements and other narratives to try and undermine UAF morale. Expect increased normalization propaganda from RF state media and a continued focus on domestic social policy, including military salary increases and "spiritual and moral culture" in schools, urban development in Moscow, and criticism of EU "brain drain." Expect immediate and widespread dissemination of content related to TCC incidents and civilian testimonials from border regions and conflict zones (Andriivka, Donbas). Expect RF to continue highlighting its control and functionality of occupied infrastructure like Mariupol port. Expect RF to amplify cultural and religious narratives (funeral of Yuri Kara, Chechen festival, new Moskvich car sales, airport recreation zones, 4-day work week benefits, IT military deferrals, Supreme Court memorial, Yuri Kara funeral, domestic banana saplings, arts support for SMO, beer production) for domestic consumption to counter war fatigue. The immediate use of a captured UAF soldier for propaganda indicates this will be a continued and adaptive tactic. TASS will continue to disseminate analyses from figures like Jeffrey Sachs to influence international discourse. RF will also continue to try and discredit Ukrainian leadership (e.g., Zelenskyy as dictator, Syrsky as "agent"). RF will continue using the Bloomberg article about Ukrainian corruption to undermine Western aid. RF will continue to leverage events like the death of Polish General Skrzypczak for cynical propaganda. RF MFA statements will continue to frame Western actions as hostile. FSB detention videos will be used to demonstrate counter-terrorism effectiveness. Raids on "Baza" media outlet and the arrest of its editor-in-chief will be used to demonstrate strict information control. TASS provides video of the Baza office situation. RF will also project its ability to pursue alleged criminals internationally (Moldovan oligarch, Azerbaijan torture claims). TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. TASS reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. Colonelcassad confirms FSB detentions and uses photos for propaganda. Сливочный каприз publishes video showing volunteer aid delivery to the 70th regiment. Север.Реалии reports VKontakte blocked public pages. TASS reports on the migration policy. TASS reports the ban on child toy sales in Kandahar, Afghanistan. WarGonzo reports on the Russia-China-Iran nuclear meeting. TASS reports Gazmanov's call for artists to support SMO fighters for moral support. Басурин о главном's use of Tucker Carlson's statement about Russia "winning" is likely to be a sustained narrative point. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦's cynical video and caption ("Motorcycle for the wheelchair, pup. Don't forget to attach it") highlights the continued demoralization efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports three injured in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF strike, which will be leveraged to emphasize RF victimhood. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports mass events suspended in Vladikavkaz due to threats from Ukrainian special services, reinforcing the narrative of external threats and justifying internal security measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Два майора reports detention of a Telegram channel author in Volgograd for extortion and public justification of Nazism, reinforcing the narrative of combating internal extremism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Alex Parker Returns publishes graphic on migrant crime in Kaluga Oblast, framing it as a "new trend" to stir social unrest and criticize migration policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Trump, by rejecting Ukraine's NATO membership, swayed it towards negotiations with Russia. This is a clear attempt to influence international perception and suggest US/Ukraine disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Counter-UAV: RF will continue to actively repel UAF drone attacks on its territory (e.g., Tula and Bryansk Oblasts) and will report successes for domestic consumption. The Samara Oblast drone attack will reinforce this focus. RF will highlight successful counter-drone operations (e.g., "Baba Yaga" destruction). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Два майора" publishes a video showing a military aircraft, likely a fighter jet, in flight during low-light conditions, with apparent explosion or impact, possibly reflecting increased counter-UAV measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Short Term (Next 3-7 days):
  • Offensive Escalation: If RF assesses UAF AD capabilities are sufficiently degraded or reserves are fixed, they may commit additional ground forces for a larger-scale offensive in Kharkiv/Sumy or attempt to exploit the claimed Malaya Tokmachka breakthrough more fully. The claimed advances in Hrushevske and Novotoretske will be consolidated. The increased offensive pace indicated by Сливочный каприз's chart suggests this is a live possibility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Western Aid Impact: The rate of Western aid delivery, particularly AD munitions, will be critical. Decision points for international partners to accelerate deliveries will be influenced by the ongoing intensity of RF strikes. Netherlands' specific aid package for drones and F-16 maintenance will begin to show effect. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Norway's PM Støre's statement on Patriot agreements indicates a potential delay due to US guarantees. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Impact of UK Sanctions: Monitor initial RF response and market adjustments to the new UK sanctions on "shadow fleet" tankers; assess immediate impact on oil exports. Monitor RF LNG export reductions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Drone Development: Monitor initial developments related to Rostov Oblast's plans for UAV development and production, and the continued sourcing of components (e.g., from China). The new motorcycle acquisition by RF forces points to a focus on agile, tactical mobility supporting drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Equipment Needs: Monitor the impact of milblogger appeals for equipment like thermal imagers on RF supply chains. NEW: Monitor the response to Poddubnyy's call for civilian engineering equipment at the front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal RF Political Repercussions: Monitor the aftermath of the Supreme Court Chairman's death, including succession and any unexpected internal political shifts. Monitor developments in the Bryansk Vice-Governor case and high-level MoD corruption. Monitor implications of State Duma Deputy Tarasenko's death. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Ukrainian Mobilization: Monitor public reception and effectiveness of convict mobilization and ongoing TCC operations. Monitor the political developments regarding NABU and SAP independence. Rada's consideration of limiting NABU/SAP powers is an immediate concern. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Monitor the impact of the UOC mandate on religious communities and potential for internal unrest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • International Diplomacy (Nuclear Meeting): Monitor the outcome and any public statements from the Russia-China-Iran nuclear meeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • EU Frozen Assets: Monitor developments regarding the informal EU discussion on frozen Russian assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Medium Term (Next 1-2 weeks):
  • Sustainment of Operations: Both sides will face significant sustainment challenges, particularly for munitions and personnel. UAF's ability to rapidly scale domestic production (e.g., Bohdana-BG howitzers, anti-personnel mines) and secure additional international funding will be critical. The Ukraine-Denmark AI drone interceptor development signifies a long-term strategic investment. Ukraine's ability to meet its stated $120 billion defense budget requirement for next year will be key. The drought in Donbas could begin to significantly impact water supply and, subsequently, sustainment for military and civilian populations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Environment Volatility: The information environment will remain highly contested, with both sides intensifying propaganda and counter-propaganda efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Rearmament Progress: Initial indicators of RF's progress on its $1.1 trillion rearmament plan by 2036 will begin to emerge. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

• RF Northern Grouping Reserves (Priority 1): Detailed and verifiable intelligence on the composition, strength, and staging of RF operational reserves in Belgorod/Kursk Oblasts. Collection Requirement (CR): IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT assets focused on training areas, logistics nodes, and troop concentrations in RF border regions. Emphasis on identifying new unit deployments or activation.
• Verification of RF Breakthrough at Malaya Tokmachka (Priority 2): Definitive, real-time ground truth regarding the claimed RF tactical breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. CR: IMINT (high-resolution satellite imagery, commercial satellite intelligence), UAV ISR, forward deployed HUMINT for ground observation and contact reports. Specific focus on troop movements, defensive line integrity, and BDA of claimed objectives.
• BDA on Western Logistics and Kyiv (Priority 3): Comprehensive BDA of all kinetic impacts in Western Oblasts and Kyiv, specifically assessing damage to rail/road networks, storage facilities, and identified defense industry sites. CR: Post-strike IMINT (drone and satellite), HUMINT (EOD reports, local civilian networks), OSINT (social media, local news).
• RF AD/REB Effectiveness & Intentions (Priority 4): Assess the full extent of RF AD/REB capabilities to counter UAF drones, especially reconnaissance assets. Understand the strategic intent behind RF's continued high-volume deep strikes, including target prioritization and adaptation. CR: SIGINT on RF AD/REB emissions, COMINT for RF C2 communications, exploited UAF drone telemetry data, BDA of RF AD/REB systems by UAF strikes.
• Internal RF Military Morale (Priority 5): Collect more widespread intelligence on RF personnel morale beyond isolated incidents, particularly within units actively engaged in offensive operations. CR: HUMINT (POW interrogations, defectors), OSINT (milblogger discussions, soldier social media activity), COMINT (intercepted internal communications).
• Verification of RF DRG Activity in Pokrovsk (Priority 6): Confirm the extent and success of claimed RF DRG ambushes or infiltration in Pokrovsk, particularly given the new video. CR: HUMINT (local reports, captured personnel interrogations), IMINT (surveillance footage, post-incident analysis).
• Damage Assessment of Millerovo Airfield (Priority 7): Detailed BDA of damage to Millerovo military airfield (runways, aircraft, hangars, fuel depots). CR: IMINT (satellite, commercial satellite intelligence), HUMINT (local reporting, insider information).
• RF Response to Millerovo Attack (Priority 8): Monitor RF military and political responses to the Millerovo airfield attack, particularly any indications of escalation in retaliation. CR: OSINT (RF official statements, milbloggers), SIGINT (RF C2 communications).
• Verification of Russian drone capabilities (Priority 9): Identify specific types and capabilities of RF drones observed in the Colonelcassad video (e.g., "BABA-YAGA" details, "Kozak," "Paladin," "URAL-4320" targeting), and specifically the "Harpy" drones. CR: Exploited drone footage analysis, wreckage analysis, technical intelligence.
• Confirmation of UAF Robotic Platform Destruction (Priority 10): Verify the destruction of the UAF robotic platform claimed by Colonelcassad. CR: Post-engagement BDA, analysis of RF drone footage, UAF unit reports.
• Verification of RF "Harpy" Drone (Priority 11): Identify the characteristics, capabilities, and operational deployment of the "Harpy" drone referenced by Kotsnews and used by Colonelcassad. CR: Analysis of video footage, RF milblogger commentary, and technical intelligence on similar platforms.
• Monitoring of Southern UAV Activity (Priority 12): Track new Shahed UAV groups from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Pavlohrad and from the Black Sea towards Mykolaiv/Odesa Oblasts. Monitor RF reconnaissance UAV activity towards Kryvyi Rih. CR: Air Force updates, local reporting, AD engagement data, SIGINT on UAV control signals.
• Assessment of civilian presence in Zaporizhzhia combat zones (Priority 13): Verify RF claims regarding delayed UAF evacuation efforts and the risk to civilians in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. CR: HUMINT (local civilian reports), OSINT (local media, social media monitoring), UNHCR/aid organization reports.
• Odesa Damage Assessment (Priority 14): Conduct immediate BDA of civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa following the UAV attack, including the reported supermarket fire. CR: Local reporting, satellite imagery, public photographic/video evidence.
• Verification of North Korean MLRS Type-75 Deployment (Priority 15): Confirm the presence, quantity, and operational deployment of North Korean 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" systems within RF forces, particularly in frontline areas. CR: IMINT (satellite, tactical UAV imagery), HUMINT (POW interrogations, local sources), OSINT (RF milblogger content, identification of unique munition types).
• Monitoring of Aviation Munitions Threats to Donetsk/Sumy (Priority 16): Track specific types and frequency of aviation munitions (e.g., KABs, unguided bombs, Uragan MLRS) being used against Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. CR: Air Force updates, local reporting, BDA, SIGINT on RF aviation activity.
• RF POW Exploitation (Priority 17): Monitor all RF official and milblogger channels for further releases of POW interrogations or statements. Analyze content for new intelligence regarding UAF unit dispositions, morale, or C2 issues. CR: OSINT (TASS, RF milbloggers), HUMINT (cross-reference with POW interrogations).
• RF Border Unit Activities (Priority 18): Increased focus on drone reconnaissance and ground activities by RF units operating in the Sumy and Chernihiv border regions. CR: UAV ISR, HUMINT, OSINT from border communities.
• Verification of Nova Kakhovka Drone Strike (Priority 19): Confirm details of the drone strike on a minibus in Nova Kakhovka, including the responsible party and precise BDA. CR: IMINT (drone/satellite imagery if available), HUMINT (local reports, civilian accounts), OSINT (local media).
• Impact of NABU/SAP Legislation (Priority 20): Closely monitor the legislative process and public/international reaction to the proposed bill limiting NABU/SAP powers, assessing potential impacts on anti-corruption efforts and international support. CR: OSINT (Ukrainian political news, parliamentary proceedings, international organization statements), HUMINT (informed sources).
• Moscow Drone Manufacturing Attack (Priority 21): Investigate the attack on the Moscow drone manufacturing company head's car to determine if it was a UAF deep strike or internal sabotage. CR: OSINT (RF law enforcement reports, local media, social media), HUMINT.
• Impact of Donbas Drought on RF Logistics/Morale (Priority 22): Assess the extent to which drought conditions in Donbas are affecting RF military operations, including water supply for personnel and equipment, and the morale of units operating in affected areas. CR: IMINT (satellite imagery of water bodies, ground observations), HUMINT (local reports, POW interrogations), OSINT (RF milblogger discussions, local civilian social media).
• RF Internal Political/Legal Events (Priority 23): Monitor the significance and implications of high-profile internal RF political and legal events, such as the death of the Supreme Court Chairman, the arrest of the Bryansk Vice-Governor, and raids on media outlets, on overall RF stability and decision-making. CR: OSINT (TASS, independent Russian media, milbloggers, opposition channels), HUMINT.
• RF Military Supply Chain (Priority 24): Monitor the acquisition and deployment of new military equipment by RF, specifically noting the source and quantity of items like the new motorcycles shown by Colonelcassad. CR: IMINT, OSINT (milblogger content), HUMINT (POW interrogations, intercepted communications).
• Sumy Daylight Drone Attack BDA (Priority 25): Conduct immediate and thorough BDA of the Sumy daylight drone attack, specifically confirming damage to medical facilities and playgrounds, and verifying civilian casualties. CR: Ground reporting, local civilian networks, DSNS reports, OSINT (social media video/photos).
• Verify Polish Call for Citizens to Leave Russia (Priority 26): Confirm the authenticity and official nature of the Polish government's call for its citizens to leave Russia. Assess its likely impact on diplomatic relations and civilian movement. CR: Official Polish government statements, international news agencies, diplomatic sources.
• RF Internal Information Environment Management (Priority 27): Monitor specific instances and methods used by RF authorities to control internal information, including censorship, narratives around population decline, and the proposed public Wi-Fi program. CR: OSINT (independent Russian media, social media, government portals), HUMINT (citizen reports).
• Verification of RF Lancet Strike on Dana SPG (Priority 28): Obtain independent verification and precise BDA of the claimed Lancet strike on a UAF Dana SPG. CR: UAF unit reports, post-strike IMINT, technical analysis of drone footage.
• UAF Anti-Personnel Mine Production and Deployment (Priority 29): Monitor the actual production rates and deployment of anti-personnel mines by UAF, following President Zelenskyy's decision to withdraw from the Ottawa Convention. Assess the tactical impact and ethical implications. CR: Ground reports, UAF official statements, IMINT, HUMINT (frontline observations).
• Impact of Norwegian Patriot Delay (Priority 30): Monitor the negotiations between Norway, Germany, and the US regarding Patriot systems. Assess the potential impact of any delays on Ukraine's air defense capabilities. CR: Diplomatic reporting, official statements from involved nations, defense media analysis.
• UAF POW Situation (Priority 31): Continue to monitor RF media for exploitation of UAF POWs. Identify and track the individual shown in the БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video for further intelligence and potential prisoner exchange efforts. CR: OSINT (RF media), HUMINT (prisoner exchange channels, family contacts).
• Black Sea Gas Facilities Damage Assessment (Priority 32): Conduct BDA of the claimed drone strikes on gas production facilities in the Black Sea, assessing the extent of damage and operational impact. CR: Satellite imagery, OSINT (maritime tracking, local reports), SIGINT.
• Impact of UOC Mandate (Priority 33): Monitor the internal political and social ramifications of the Ukrainian government's mandate for the UOC to break ties with the ROC. Assess potential for unrest or shifts in public support. CR: OSINT (Ukrainian media, social media, religious commentary), HUMINT (local reports, religious leaders).
• EU Frozen Assets Decision (Priority 34): Monitor the informal discussions within the EU regarding the fate of frozen Russian assets. Assess the likelihood of a decision to utilize them for Ukraine's benefit and its potential impact on RF's financial position. CR: OSINT (EU official statements, financial news), diplomatic reporting.
• China Asset Masking Implications (Priority 35): Analyze the implications of China masking US assets, especially if it indicates a broader shift in financial relations that could impact geopolitical stability. CR: Financial intelligence, economic analysis, diplomatic reporting.
• RF Vladikavkaz Threat Assessment (Priority 36): Monitor the security situation in Vladikavkaz and verify the credibility of RF claims regarding Ukrainian special services targeting servicemen. CR: HUMINT, OSINT (local reports, social media), SIGINT.
• RF Volgograd Telegram Channel Arrest (Priority 37): Monitor the legal proceedings and media coverage of the Telegram channel author's arrest in Volgograd. Assess the impact on online dissent and information control. CR: OSINT (Russian legal news, social media), HUMINT.
• Kaluga Oblast Migrant Crime Narrative (Priority 38): Monitor RF media and social media for further amplification of the Kaluga Oblast migrant crime narrative. Assess its impact on public sentiment and potential for internal social unrest. CR: OSINT (Russian social media, news outlets), HUMINT (public opinion polling).
• Impact of Trump's Stance on Ukraine/NATO (Priority 39): Closely monitor international and Ukrainian reactions to TASS's reporting on Trump's influence on Ukraine's NATO aspirations and negotiations with Russia. Assess the impact on diplomatic efforts and Western unity. CR: OSINT (international news, political commentary, diplomatic statements), HUMINT (diplomatic sources).

End of Report.