Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 220945Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats have been lifted. Localized Shahed UAV threats persist for Lviv Oblast, Southern Ukraine, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi districts, also Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, heading NW), and Kharkiv Oblast. Confirmed civilian casualties: Ivano-Frankivsk (4), Kyiv (9 injured, 1 fatality), Chernivtsi (4), Zaporizhzhia (2), Dnipropetrovsk (2), Sloviansk (4), Kherson (7 injured), and Kramatorsk (1 fatality, 7 injured). Total confirmed fatalities are 14, with multiple injuries. Rescue and emergency services are actively engaged across multiple oblasts, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Poltava, and Kherson. Confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa due to RF UAV attack, including administrative building, vehicles, and windows blown out in residential buildings. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Northern Ukraine (Kyiv Oblast): Continued Air Defense (AD) engagement against Shahed UAVs over Kyiv. Kinetic impacts on residential buildings in the Shevchenkivskyi district and "Lvivskyi Kvartal" residential complex, causing structural damage and fires. A commercial building and Lukyanivska metro station entrance also sustained damage. One fatality and nine injuries reported in Kyiv. Firefighters and emergency services are actively engaged; kindergarten fire confirmed. Visuals confirm extensive damage to kiosks and commercial facades. Lukyanivska metro station has fully restored operations. OBA reports consequences in two Kyiv Oblast districts. PS ZSU spokesman Ihnat reports over fifteen direct hits on various objects in Kyiv overnight. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, with video showing multiple explosions and fires in an urban area at night, and claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports an unknown individual engaged in a shooting incident in Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast. This is a localized internal security incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Eastern Ukraine: Initial cruise missile group detected over Kharkiv Oblast, moving towards Poltava Oblast. Kharkiv's Kyivskyi district hit by 12 UAV strikes overnight. RF milblogger "Воин DV" claims bomber strikes on UAF forward positions in Yanvarskyi supporting 36th Army advance. New group of RF UAVs reported from Luhansk Oblast moving towards Kharkiv Oblast. Kharkiv Oblast governor, Oleg Sinegubov, confirms strikes on Kharkiv city and 10 settlements. DeepState reports RF advances in Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, and near three other villages in Donetsk Oblast. MoD Russia provides video claiming liberation of Popov Yar. RF milbloggers claim a new RF front opened in Kharkiv Oblast, aiming to stretch UAF reserves. Russian military operations confirmed near Belaya Gora in Donetsk region, with claims of capturing foreign weapons and its significance for logistics to Kostiantynivka. Colonelcassad shares map showing continued positional changes on the front line. UAF National Guard "Khartia" brigade drone operators claimed destruction of nearly a platoon of Russian occupiers in Kharkiv Oblast. A tractor driver was blown up by a mine in Balakliia community, Kharkiv Oblast. At least 54 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast affected by enemy strikes over the past week. STERNENKO claims Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment holding back Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast. Liveuamap Source reports recent clashes at Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Huliaipole, and Kherson directions. Ukrainian forces repelled 23 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. FPV drone strike on Russian UAZ-452 ('Bukhanka') vehicle confirmed. Perovske, Zolochiv community, Kharkiv Oblast, shelled. DeepState reports liquidation of RF sabotage groups in Pokrovsk. RF milbloggers claim RF DRG activity in Pokrovsk, with video suggesting an ambush on a UAF vehicle. Threat of aviation munitions for Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. Liveuamap Source, citing UAF General Staff, reports: RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. Clashes at Toretsk direction yesterday near Dyliyivka, Romanivka, Toretsk, Oleksandro-Kalynove, Novospaske and towards Katerynivka and Pleschiyivka. Clashes at Sieversk direction yesterday near Serebryanka, Verkhnokamyanske and Pereyizne. Clashes at Lyman direction yesterday near Novyy Myr, Karpivka, Kolodyazi, Yampolivka, Torske and towards Serebryanka, Serednye, Shandryholove, Hryhorivka. Clashes at Novopavlivka direction yesterday near Zirka, Piddubne, Myrne, Shevchenko, Dachne and towards Novokhatske, Temyrivka, Oleksandrohrad, Voskresenka. Clashes at Kramatorsk direction yesterday near Bila Hora and towards Predtechyne. Clashes at Kupyansk direction yesterday near Holubivka, Kupyansk, Pischane, Zahryzove, Zelenyi Hai and towards Bohuslavka. Clashes at Orikhiv direction yesterday near Kamyanske. Clashes at South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction yesterday near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Stroyivka, Zapadne and Kutkivka. Clashes at Pokrovsk direction yesterday near Popiv Yar, Volodymyrivka, Novotoretske, Mykolayivka, Udachne, Novoekonomichne, Lysivka, Zvirove towards Novoukrayinka, Pokrovsk, Dachne, Myrnohrada, Mayak. Ukrainian forces repelled 22 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports DeepState analysis that RF army occupied Hrushevske and advanced near Voskresenka, Orikhove, Mayak and Zatyhka (formerly Suvorove) in Donetsk Oblast. TASS claims RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske in DNR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: TASS reports RF forces advanced near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast, dislodging UAF units from several positions. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Popov Yar, Donetsk Oblast: TASS reports a group of Ukrainian servicemen surrendered in Popov Yar, DNR. This claim, if verified, indicates localized UAF tactical setbacks. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • South-Donetsk Direction: Colonelcassad publishes video claiming successful destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit by 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, "Vostok" Grouping, in South-Donetsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast: ASTRA, RBC-Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 report a direct RF KAB strike on a residential building in Kramatorsk, resulting in the confirmed death of a 10-year-old child and 7 injured. Video and photo evidence confirms a multi-story residential building on fire and damaged, with emergency services responding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk Oblast: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade drone operators created a "kill zone" in Donetsk Oblast on a small section of highway, destroying an enemy quad bike with occupant, burning a "Bukhanka" vehicle, destroying a motorcyclist, finishing off a second with a rifle, and hitting another Russian soldier with FPV drones. This confirms localized UAF FPV drone effectiveness and active engagements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast: RBC-Ukraine provides photo message and video on RF drone and KAB attacks on Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast. This highlights continued RF kinetic impacts on civilian infrastructure in Eastern Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Belgorod Oblast: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video claiming HIMARS strikes on an RF S-300 air defense battery, a "Nebo-M" radar, and a 5H66M "Big Bird" radar in Belgorod Oblast. This, if verified, is a significant UAF success against RF air defense assets. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Velyka Novosilka - Shevchenko: "Сливочный каприз" publishes photo messages with the caption "22.07.25 Velyka Novosilka - Shevchenko," likely indicating continued engagements or observations in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnolimanskoye Direction: "Два майора" publishes a video showing five individuals in military attire, armed, and identified as a unit from the Krasnolimanskoye direction, thanking for humanitarian aid including drones and generators. This indicates continued RF presence and operations in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar: Colonelcassad provides video footage claiming the destruction of a UAF UAV command post on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar. This indicates continued RF counter-drone operations and focus on UAF C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnoarmeysk direction: MoD Russia video claims destruction of a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sloviansk/Kramatorsk: Colonelcassad publishes video claiming "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk, with a large plume of dark smoke rising, indicating kinetic impact and possible fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar direction: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes drone footage (likely FPV) from Chasiv Yar direction, showing reconnaissance or strike operations, indicating continued RF activity and drone use in this critical area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Battlefield Footage: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video showing drone footage of a soldier moving along a road and a close-up of a person on the ground with a burning object, indicating an engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnoarmeysk: Басурин о главном publishes video claiming Russian reconnaissance entered Krasnoarmeysk, noting high activity of special groups in the south of the settlement targeting enemy transport. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes video showing a truck driving on a rural road, with a person firing a weapon from the back and visible damage to the vehicle, captioned: "Our DRGs are working in Krasnoarmeysk. Video of an ambush on a Ukrainian Armed Forces vehicle has appeared." This further corroborates DRG activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Alexandrovgrad: Воин DV publishes drone footage claiming destruction of armored vehicles and personnel by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 5th Guards Tank Brigade in Alexandrovgrad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novotoretske, DNR: TASS claims RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske in DNR. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Central Ukraine: Missile group (up to 10) towards Myrhorod district, then passing Poltava towards Kremenсhuk. New missile group from Sumy Oblast also moved towards Poltava Oblast. Another group from Cherkasy Oblast diverted from Kropyvnytskyi, heading towards Zvenyhorodka, Kaniv, and Uman districts, then into Vinnytsia Oblast (Nemryriv, Trostyanets), with a general westward course. Kryvyi Rih reports "situation controlled." Aftermath of attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast confirmed. TASS claims RF forces used FABs against UAF reserve positions in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovets Oblast. New threat of strike UAVs for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi districts). UAV reported on Poltava Oblast, heading southwest. Threat of enemy strike UAVs in Zolotoniskyi and Cherkaskyi districts of Cherkasy Oblast. One fatality in Vinnytsia from 16 July strike. Explosions in Kropyvnytskyi and Kryvyi Rih amid ballistic missile threat. High-speed target on Kropyvnytskyi. Kirovohrad Oblast attacked by ballistic missiles. Nikopol district attacked by artillery, MLRS "Grad," and FPV drones. НгП раZVедка reports on aftermath of strike on preparatory camp in Kropyvnytskyi. UAV threat reported in Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, heading northwest. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: TASS claims a UK-trained UAF unit was destroyed in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, as stated by Advisor to the DNR Head, Kimakovsky. This is an unverified RF claim. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Dniproprovsk Oblast: РБК-Україна reports an infrastructure object in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast was damaged due to a drone hit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ballistic Missile Threat: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports a threat of ballistic missile use from the East in areas where air raid alarms are active. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poltava Oblast: The Office of the Prosecutor General reports a large-scale manufacturing and sale of counterfeit perfumes and cosmetics of world brands detected in Poltava Oblast. This is a domestic law enforcement event. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Samarskyi District: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports missile danger for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi district) and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Western Ukraine: Cruise missiles confirmed from Vinnytsia Oblast to Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Main group in southern Khmelnytskyi Oblast, then entered Ternopil Oblast, Chernivtsi Oblast (AD engaging, 4 fatalities confirmed), and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast (explosions, damage, casualties). Kinzhal hypersonic missile launched from MiG-31K tracked towards Starokostiantyniv, then Ternopil/Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts, with confirmed explosions and casualties. Mayor of Ivano-Frankivsk confirmed infrastructure damage. Three Shahed UAVs approaching Ivano-Frankivsk reported intercepted. Damage to kindergarten and university in Lviv. Damaged residential buildings (20 private houses) in Kamianets-Podilskyi district, Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Southern Ukraine: New Shahed UAVs detected in Black Sea, heading towards Pivdenne/Koblevo (8 inbound). RF strike on Vasylivskyi district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulted in 2 fatalities, 1 wounded. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reports 14 UAVs shot down (previously 7). Missile threat active for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF 44th Artillery Brigade successfully targeted an RF 2A65 Msta-B. Colonelcassad claims missile strike on Ukrainian gas platform in Black Sea. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides video of drones provided as aid. TASS reports parts of a downed UAF UAV fell on a kindergarten and Ministry of Emergency Situations in Berdyansk. Launches of KABs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast confirmed. UAV threat for Kherson, Zaporizhzhia (Nikopolskyi district), and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts from the south. 4 new Shahed UAVs from Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Pavlohrad. New groups of Shahed UAVs from Black Sea heading towards Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts. Odesa Oblast AD engaged 10 Shahed UAVs over Black Sea; 12 Shahed UAVs confirmed approaching Odesa from the sea. Explosions heard in Odesa. CONFIRMED CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE IN ODESA DUE TO RF UAV ATTACK. RBC-Ukraine provides photo evidence of significant civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa following the recent RF UAV attack, including destroyed vehicles, debris, and extensive damage to an administrative building and nearby residential properties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Update: New video evidence from RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU further confirms the extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Odesa, showing burned cars and a damaged residential building, indicating significant kinetic effects in a populated urban area. Firefighters are actively engaged in response. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson Oblast: Liveuamap Source, citing UAF General Staff, reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 4 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction. TASS reports on Russian Group "Dnepr" UAV calculation with FPV drones destroying a Ukrainian D-20 howitzer on the right bank of Kherson Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mariupol: TASS reports that the Mariupol port is operating with sufficient staff for current workload, despite being understaffed according to official schedule. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Odesa: "Два майора" (Two Majors), an RF milblogger channel, published multiple photos and videos confirming the extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Odesa, including a burning multi-story building and a commercial street with burned cars and damaged storefronts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also confirmed one fatality in Odesa due to the attack. These reports align with and further corroborate previous UAF reports of civilian infrastructure damage. STERNENKO confirms one person injured in Odesa due to UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Vasylivskyi District, Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has posted photo messages showing a wounded man as a result of an "enemy attack" on Vasylivskyi District. This indicates continued kinetic impacts on civilian populations in the region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson: ASTRA reports one woman injured in Kherson due to attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Southern Direction: Сили оборони Півдня України reports continued RF aviation strikes, FPV drone use, and Shahed UAV attacks on frontline settlements and UAF positions in the Southern direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video showing a minute of silence, indicating ongoing commemoration for fallen defenders. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 has issued an alert for a ballistic missile threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Direction: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Paratrooper's Diary) provides drone footage of what it claims to be the Zaporizhzhia direction, showing terrain with scattered structures and ruins. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson Direction: "Два майора" publishes a video captioned "Kherson direction," indicating continued operations or observations in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: Air Force reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV detected in Mykolaiv Oblast. This indicates continued RF ISR efforts in the south. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Shkolny Airfield, Odesa Oblast: Военкор Котенок shares video claiming that during "Geranium" (Shahed) attack on Shkolny airfield in Odesa Oblast, Ukrainian AD targeted high-rise buildings and local parking, showing firefighters responding to burning cars and a psychologist assisting civilians. This is an RF attempt to shift blame for civilian damage to UAF AD. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Temporary flight restrictions at Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky airports have been lifted. Restrictions also lifted at Nizhny Novgorod airport. RF milbloggers gloat about Kyiv impacts, claiming "precision" of strikes. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claims 18 UAVs shot down over Moscow; RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight (previously 23 over Moscow, and a total of 74 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight). Falling UAV debris on railway station in Rostov Oblast delayed over 50 passenger trains. Fire at Kamianolomni railway station, Rostov Oblast confirmed. Belgorod governor reports 2 civilian injuries from UAF UAV attack. Flooding reported in Moscow streets. Fires reported in Rostov and Moscow oblasts after UAV hits. TASS reports a Moldovan national detained in Ryazan confessed to transmitting data on RF Armed Forces to Kyiv. TASS reports a man detained in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD facilities. TASS reports RF MoD claims 14 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kaluga, Bryansk, Tula, and Oryol Oblasts. Crimean Bridge queue reached 2000 vehicles. TASS reports RF MoD claims 25 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF regions between 16:00 and 22:00 MSK, with 12 over Rostov Oblast and 8 over Bryansk Oblast. Memorial for 5-year old boy in Kursk indicates civilian casualties. Millerovo military airfield in Rostov Oblast attacked by drones, causing explosions/fires. Temporary flight restrictions at Saratov airport have been lifted. Kaluga airport has lifted temporary restrictions. TASS reports foreigners can enter RF without RuID registration. TASS reports the new Moskvich-8 car is on sale for 2.98 million rubles. TASS reports the Sheremetyevo airport is organizing recreation zones for passengers amidst recent disruptions. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. ASTRA reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Gennady Starunov, a Russian "Teacher of the Year 2022," lecturer from Moscow school #1164, and author of Telegram channel "Frontline Notes," was liquidated in Ukraine. He was mobilized in October 2022. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС also provides a video of Vladimir Putin discussing the importance of "internal mobilization of Russians" in the current RF situation. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Samara: Rosaviatsiya reports that restrictions have been lifted at Samara airport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov-on-Don: TASS reports a UAV attack was repelled in Rostov-on-Don, Millerovo, Donetsk (Rostov Oblast), and Azov district, with no casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tula Oblast: TASS reports RF air defense destroyed three Ukrainian UAVs over Tula Oblast, with no casualties or destruction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov Oblast UAV Development: TASS reports the acting governor of Rostov Oblast, Yuri Slyusar, discussed plans to make Rostov Oblast a leader in UAV development, transferring military technology to civilian applications, and expanding production capacity. This indicates a strategic focus on expanding drone production within RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novosibirsk: TASS reports the detention of a young man in Novosibirsk for hacking information resources of Russian companies and organizations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Samara Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports a drone attack on Samara Oblast, RF. Video footage from multiple sources shows an unidentified small aircraft/drone flying at altitude and a residential structure, but definitive BDA is not possible from the provided clips. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Bryansk Oblast: Брянская область. Губернатор reports "nine more" Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over Bryansk Oblast overnight. TASS reports that searches are being conducted at the home of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New message confirms detention on charges of abuse of power with damages over 818 million rubles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow: TASS reports the death of Irina Podnosova, the Chairman of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation. This is a significant internal event. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New message confirms duties assigned to Yuri Ivanenko. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kabardino-Balkaria: ASTRA reports an emergency situation declared in Tyrnyauz, Kabardino-Balkaria, due to a mudslide. Operatyvnyi ZSU provides video showing a damaged bridge support on a federal highway due to severe flooding in Kabardino-Balkaria. This directly corroborates the environmental hazard. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow Development: Новости Москвы reports plans for over 800 sports and 1500 children's playgrounds to be built in Moscow this year. This is a domestic development initiative. Новости Москвы also reports that scientists have proven a four-day work week without salary reduction improves employee well-being. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Crimea: TASS reports three individuals were detained in Crimea for desecrating a monument in Ordzhonikidze. This indicates internal security issues related to historical sites in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tyumen: "Операция Z" reports the detention of a migrant in Tyumen who allegedly threatened a teenager on a football field. This is an internal law enforcement matter. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Law Enforcement: TASS reports billionaire Matsotsky appealed his in absentia arrest in a bribery case. This indicates continued internal anti-corruption or criminal investigations within RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • FSB Activity: FSB reports it thwarted activities of three suspects aiding Ukrainian special services in DNR, Yaroslavl, and Lipetsk Oblasts. This highlights continued RF counter-intelligence efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow: ASTRA reports security forces detained Dmitry Kisiev, head of the headquarters of former presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin. This indicates continued suppression of political opposition within RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF MoD Corruption: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports new criminal cases against former Deputy Minister of Defense Pavel Popov for multi-million ruble bribes. This points to ongoing high-level corruption within the RF MoD. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novorossiysk: TASS reports over 20 apartments damaged by a domestic gas explosion in Novorossiysk. This is a civilian incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • St. Petersburg: ASTRA reports two foreign nationals detained near FSB building in St. Petersburg for dancing. Север.Реалии also reports on the detention of tourists for "photographing near the FSB building and dancing." This indicates continued internal security vigilance and control of public behavior. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Foreign Vessel Access: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Putin has toughened rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poland General's Death: TASS, Colonelcassad, and Alex Parker Returns all report the death of Polish General Waldemar Skrzypczak, who previously threatened Kaliningrad. RF milbloggers frame this cynically as "one less" enemy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF MFA Statements: TASS reports RF MFA states RF significantly expanded list of EU representatives and EU institutions banned from entering Russia in response to EU actions. This indicates continued diplomatic retaliation. TASS also reports main statements from RF MFA, including "Western countries continue to use Ukraine as a tool to wage war against Russia." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • FSB Detentions: Военкор Котенок reports FSB detained two Ukrainian special services agents in Russian regions, showing footage of their apprehension and seized materials (chemicals, detonators, firearms), and a confession to planning attacks on railway infrastructure. Операция Z also reports FSB detained three accomplices of Ukrainian special services for preparing terrorist attacks in DNR, Yaroslavl, and Lipetsk Oblasts, showing similar detention footage and confessions related to railway and military infrastructure sabotage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Media Raids: TASS, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, and Север.Реалии report police and OMON conducted searches at "Baza" publication's editorial office and the editor-in-chief's apartment. Alex Parker Returns claims the editor-in-chief was arrested due to illegal dissemination of restricted information. New message from Два майора confirms searches at Baza Telegram channel office. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports a criminal case for exceeding authority has been opened against police officers in Moscow who leaked information, and searches are ongoing at the office of a Telegram channel. This likely refers to the "Baza" incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dagestan, Russia: TASS reports 4 people, including 2 children, died in a car accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan, with 4 more injured. This is a domestic civilian incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sumy Oblast: RF conducted a strike on Sumy community's Kovpakivskyi district. Two explosions heard, likely from KABs, impacting residential area and causing damage to apartment building. Three injured, now increased to 12. Emergency services on site. 5 multi-story buildings, a shopping center, and 18 cars damaged. Threat of aviation munitions for Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. Colonelcassad reports "Anvar" unit operating in the border areas of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, providing drone footage of UAF positions, including trenches, dugouts, personnel, and a communication tower, indicating continued RF reconnaissance and targeting efforts in these border regions. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs over southeastern Sumy Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast (near Mena, Koryukivka), and southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which may be spotters for enemy weapons systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy: RBC-Ukraine publishes video and photo evidence showing the aftermath of KAB strikes in Sumy, confirming three injured, including a child. This further corroborates the civilian impact of these attacks. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also confirmed RF KAB strike on Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy Direction: "Два майора" publishes FPV drone footage claiming to target a UAF soldier in the Sumy direction near Pisarevka and Khoten. The video shows a drone targeting an individual and an impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Varachino, Sumy Oblast: Операция Z claims Russian army liberated Varachino in Sumy Oblast, attacking in the Sumy direction. This is an unverified RF claim. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) "Воин DV" also publishes a video from "First Channel" reporting on the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade pushing UAF from Russian borders in Sumy Oblast, showing damaged buildings in Varashino, indicating RF claims of advances in this specific area. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Sumy Oblast: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. New message from Повітряні Сили ЗС України confirms KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kryvyi Rih: Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 22.07.25. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Andriivka: Военкор Котенок shares civilian testimonial from displaced person from Andriivka, highlighting destruction and humanitarian impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Krasny Liman: Сливочный каприз publishes photo messages regarding Krasny Liman - Zelyonaya Dolina. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Odesa: Colonelcassad publishes multi-panel image related to Odesa, likely showing areas affected by strikes or for future targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Crimean Shores: "Два майора" publishes video showing military-style inflatable boat with personnel in camouflage, indicating maritime operations near Crimean shores. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Novomikhailovka: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of a woman mourning her son, a Russian SMO participant who died storming Novomikhailovka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Grushevske, Donetsk Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF army occupied Hrushevske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Ukraine General: Night operations continue to provide low visibility, favoring RF UAV and missile saturation tactics. Kharkiv Oblast expects worsening weather (heavy rains, thunderstorms), which could impact ground operations and visibility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Heavy rainfall in Moscow Oblast indicates adverse weather conditions within RF territory, potentially impacting logistics or internal movements. Bridge collapse in Moscow region due to heavy rains confirmed, cutting off villages. Significant flooding confirmed in Moscow. TASS reports 15 "Tavriya" trains delayed in communication with Crimea. Train delays at Paveletsky Station due to weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kabardino-Balkaria: ASTRA reports a mudslide in Tyrnyauz, Kabardino-Balkaria, leading to an emergency situation. Operatyvnyi ZSU provides video showing a damaged bridge support on a federal highway due2 to severe flooding in Kabardino-Balkaria. This indicates localized extreme weather and environmental hazards that could disrupt internal infrastructure and emergency services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Railways: TASS reports all trains to Black Sea resorts on July 22 will follow schedule, suggesting restoration of railway services despite previous weather-related delays. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF:
  • Air Defense (AD): Fully engaged nationwide against a multi-vector RF aerial assault, including Tu-95MS launched cruise missiles (24 confirmed), ballistic missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic missiles from MiG-31K, and OWA UAVs (Shahed, 426 confirmed). AD actively tracked multiple missile groups across Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts. Kyiv AD actively engaged approximately 10 inbound Shaheds and multiple missiles. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast AD shot down 14 UAVs (previously 7). President Zelenskyy reports UAF AD destroyed over 20 missiles and the "overwhelming majority" of drones (344 of 623 total aerial targets). Southern Defense Forces report 18 Shaheds destroyed in their operational zone. New group of RF UAVs reported from Luhansk Oblast towards Kharkiv. Air Force reports 224 targets shot down/suppressed, with 203 UAVs not reaching targets due to loss of localization/REB. Germany to provide 5 Patriot systems and ammunition. Norway ready to provide significant additional funding for Ukraine's air defense. UAF AF reports UAV threat for Kharkiv Oblast. Sili Oborony Pivdnya Ukraїny video shows Ukrainian soldiers operating a ZU-23 anti-aircraft gun mounted on a truck countering Russian Shahed drones in Mykolaiv area, claiming over 30 air targets neutralized. Николаевский Ванёк reports "minus" on Shahed UAVs ("mopeds") for now. Air Defense is active in Odesa, engaging Shahed UAVs from the Black Sea. Netherlands will make a significant contribution to US Patriot AD systems. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Possible AD work. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Update (AD): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports that as of 06:00Z, 26 enemy UAVs have been shot down/suppressed, with 7 more failing to reach targets due to loss of localization/REB. RBC-Ukraine reports Air Force confirmed 42 Russian UAVs attacked overnight. This confirms continued UAF AD effectiveness against RF drone attacks, with updated numbers. New message from Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy UAV in Black Sea, course to Odesa, AD engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Services: Medical teams dispatched to multiple districts in Kyiv and other affected oblasts. Rescue efforts underway for confirmed fatalities and casualties. Firefighters actively engaged. Minister of Internal Affairs reports 15 fires due to Russian shelling, 13 liquidated. KMVA confirms rescue and emergency work ongoing nationwide. Cleanup and emergency services are working in Sumy. Confirmed images and videos from RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU show State Emergency Service (DSNS) personnel actively engaged in firefighting and damage assessment operations in Odesa following RF UAV attacks. This confirms a high level of preparedness and response capability from Ukrainian emergency services. DSNS Ukraine confirms three injured, including a child, in Sumy from KAB strikes. STERNENKO confirms one person injured in Odesa. DSNS and local authorities are actively engaged in Kramatorsk following the KAB strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Control Measures: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats lifted, localized drone alerts persist. Public warnings for shelter ongoing. Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) providing updates; metro red line partially suspended, Lukyanivska station now fully reopened. Temporary changes to Kyiv bus/trolleybus routes. Cabinet of Ministers officially reorganized ministries. Brig. Gen. Hennadiy Shapovalov appointed new commander of UAF Ground Forces. President Zelenskyy reports UAF AD destroyed over 20 missiles and the "overwhelming majority" of drones (344 of 623 total aerial targets). Ukraine plans to open four new embassies. Zelenskyy states new negotiations with Russia planned for Wednesday in Istanbul. Odesa Oblast Military Administration calls for residents to take shelter due to incoming Shaheds. ZAPORIZHZHIYA OBLAST MILITARY ADMINISTRATION HAS LIFTED AIR RAID ALERT. Kryvyi Rih mayor states situation is controlled. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Update (Control Measures): Генеральний штаб ЗСУ and Оперативний ЗСУ continue to publish daily photos promoting the nationwide moment of silence at 09:00, reinforcing national unity and remembrance. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) also highlights the commemoration of fallen Kyiv defenders. RBC-Ukraine reports President Zelenskyy introduced the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) decision on a moratorium on baseless checks and interference by state bodies in business activities. This indicates efforts to improve the business environment. New message from Оперативний ЗСУ reports Rustem Umierov will lead the Ukrainian delegation for negotiations with Russia, as stated by Zelenskyy. New message from РБК-Україна reports Rada considers bill to limit NABU/SAP powers today. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Security Services: SBU and OGP conducting special operation to "neutralize Russian influence on NABU." Detention of NABU detective head (Ruslan Magamedrasulov) suspected of aiding RF and doing business in RF confirmed. Court ordered detention of MP from banned OPZZh party (Fedir Khristenko) suspected of being FSB agent. Over 70 searches conducted. SBU initiated comprehensive check on adherence to state secrets legislation in SAP. General Director of "Forests of Ukraine" served suspicion for illegal enrichment. General Director of "Rostec" and assistant to aggressor state leadership notified of suspicion. Detention of NABU elite unit "D-2" employee suspected of spying for Russian special services confirmed. President Zelenskyy emphasized need for legal architecture to hold Russia accountable for war. Ukraine returned a teenager forcibly taken from Mariupol to Russia. G7 Ambassadors alarmed by NABU scandal. Ukrainian police helped neutralize pro-Russian hacker network NoName057(16). Оперативний ЗСУ reports a court has remanded NABU employee Viktor Husarov into custody without bail until September 20 or the end of the pre-trial investigation. РБК-Україна reports that an employee of NABU's "most elite closed unit," suspected of treason, has had a pre-trial detention measure chosen. New message from Оперативний ЗСУ provides official statement from NABU and SAP regarding draft law No.12414 which could limit their powers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Foreign Volunteers: 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" claims 2,000 Colombians fighting in its ranks. TASS claims UAF deployed a platoon of "Latin American mercenaries" to Aleksandrovgrad, DNR, and then claims they fled. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Resource Requirements: UAF National Guard's "Rubizh" brigade crowdfunding for "destroyed property and equipment." Zelenskyy emphasizes need for increased domestic production of weapons and drones (50% within six months). Hundreds of agreements with partners for weapon supply, joint production, and investments. Ukraine needs $6 billion to cover gap in weapons procurement for current year. Britain transferred $200 million of $940 million in air defense assets and artillery shells. Urgent fundraiser for drones for UAF 32nd Steel Brigade. French companies ready to start drone production in Ukraine. Canada will allocate $14.6 million USD for maintenance of Ukrainian tanks and finance Ukrainian defense industry through "Danish model." Canada will allocate $15 million for Leopard 2 tank repairs. NATO can provide additional funding for Ukrainian army, specifically for military motivation and drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Update (Resource Requirements): РБК-Україна reports that the "Rubizh" brigade of the NGU is collecting funds for the restoration of destroyed property and equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Training: UAF 61st OMBr tank crews conducting rigorous training. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF 63rd Mechanized Brigade reports liquidation of 33 RF personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chernihiv: Colonelcassad reports and provides video of TCC (Territorial Recruitment Center) personnel in Chernihiv violently detaining a man in handcuffs, forcefully bringing him to the ground. This indicates continued, aggressive mobilization efforts and potential for public discontent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UK Sanctions: The UK has introduced new sanctions against 135 tankers belonging to Russia's "shadow fleet." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Losses: General Staff of UAF provides estimated total combat losses for RF from 24.02.22 to 22.07.25. (Figures are approximate and should be cross-referenced). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade: ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» publishes a video showing ZALA drones being "burned" along with their "girlfriends." While details are limited, this suggests active counter-drone operations by the 47th Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Domestic Production: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that domestic 155-mm Bohdana-BG howitzers have entered service with the 40th Separate Artillery Brigade. This is a significant development for UAF's domestic long-range artillery capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Psychological Operations: 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України (46th Separate Airmobile Brigade) released a video appealing to RF soldiers to surrender, offering humane treatment and monetary rewards for surrendered equipment. This indicates active UAF psychological operations (PSYOPS). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Corruption: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports that the President of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine has been suspended from his post at the request of the Prosecutor General's Office due to a criminal investigation. This indicates continued anti-corruption efforts. New message from Офіс Генерального прокурора reports completed investigation into illegal coal mining in occupied Donetsk, with damages over 5 billion hryvnias. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Drone Recruitment: DeepState publishes a recruitment video for the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade's unmanned systems unit, indicating continued efforts to recruit and train drone operators. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Funds for Drones: STERNENKO promotes a raffle for a silver FPV drone, indicating continued crowdfunding efforts for UAF drone procurement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Convict Mobilization: РБК-Україна reports approximately 9500 convicts have joined the AFU. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukraine-Denmark Drone Interceptor: РБК-Україна reports Ukraine and Denmark are developing an AI-powered drone interceptor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Netherlands Aid: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Netherlands provides €200M for interceptor drones and €125M for F-16 maintenance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Prosecutor Investigation: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports investigations launched into attacks on Odesa, Donetsk, and Sumy regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Currency Exchange Rates: РБК-Україна reports exchange offices lowered the USD rate and raised the EUR rate. This indicates minor economic fluctuations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ramstein Meeting: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes photo messages indicating participation of Ukrainian Minister of Defense in the Ramstein Contact Group meeting, highlighting continued international support and coordination. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Soldier with Weapon: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes photos of a UAF soldier with a weapon, captioned "This is a very good weapon if you know how to use it," aiming to boost morale and project professionalism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chief of General Staff at Diplomatic Event: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes photos of Major General Andrii Hnatov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, speaking at a plenary session for heads of foreign diplomatic institutions, titled "Strengthening national resilience: security situation at the front and defense policy priorities." This highlights UAF's diplomatic engagement and strategic communication. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pension for Military Personnel: Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes information on pensions for military personnel, indicating a focus on soldier welfare and social policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NABU Information Leak Investigation: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports new facts of restricted information leaks from NABU, indicating continued internal investigations and efforts to combat corruption. Operatyvnyi ZSU and RBC-Ukraine also report on this, including finding sensitive documents at the home of an OPZZh MP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • F-16 Project: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine publishes video showcasing an F-16 fighter jet and mentions a "new project," highlighting ongoing efforts to integrate Western airpower and develop new capabilities. RBC-Україна reports Air Force received first unique mobile complexes for F-16 maintenance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zelenskyy Meeting: Zelenskiy / Official publishes photo messages regarding a meeting on Ukraine's negotiation results. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Occupant Targeting: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing aeroreconnaissance of the 4th battalion of the 101st Brigade of the General Staff of the AFU targeting a Russian occupant hiding in a sleeping bag in a field. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • STERNENKO Tactical Action: STERNENKO provides video from "Sanitary Zone Flying Skull" showing drones on fiber optics flying into enemy positions, destroying a car, motorcycle, and enemy property and ammunition. This confirms UAF tactical drone effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RUF:
  • Deep Operations (UAV/Missile/Aviation Munitions): RF executing high-volume, multi-wave, multi-domain deep strike campaign. Included Tu-95MS strategic bomber launches (24 cruise missiles), sustained Shahed UAV attacks (426 total OWA UAVs), and re-engagement of MiG-31K for Kinzhal hypersonic missile launches against Western Ukraine (Starokostiantyniv, Ivano-Frankivsk) and now Kyiv (3 Kinzhals). Colonelcassad claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv. TASS claims RF forces used FABs against UAF reserve positions in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovets Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KABs on Donetsk Oblast and Sumy Oblast. RF milbloggers gloating about Kyiv impacts, claiming "precision" of strikes. Alex Parker Returns claims missile strike on Black Sea platform. Воин DV shares FPV drone footage claiming successful neutralization of multiple UAF equipment. НгП раZVедка provides summary of "Night strike of retribution." MoD Russia claims grouped strike with high-precision long-range air, ground, and sea-based weapons against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure. Alex Parker Returns video shows damaged McDonald's restaurant and bank in Kyiv. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, and Sumy city. Воин DV provides video footage of "FABing" by 11th Guards Army Air Force and Air Defense. TASS video shows FPV drone strike destroying UAF BMP-3. Alex Parker Returns explicitly states intent to use "Geranium" (Shaheds) on frontline due to scaled production. MoD Russia video shows Kub loitering munitions, detailing capabilities and warhead size. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF KAB strike on Sumy. RF conducted a KAB strike on a residential building in Kramatorsk. Alex Parker Returns publishes videos claiming to show military operations, including rocket artillery and drones, and offering 3 million rubles for military service, indicating continued recruitment efforts. Kotsnews publishes video claiming "Harpies are hunting," showing aerial footage of a strike on a village with significant explosion and smoke. This indicates the use of advanced loitering munitions or precision-guided bombs. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing military vehicles moving on a road, with one appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) during movement, captioned: "Вывалился. Быть добру!" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Aviation: RF airports lifted temporary restrictions. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claims 18 UAVs destroyed over Moscow; RF MoD claims 35 UAVs over RF territory were destroyed overnight (previously 23 over Moscow region and 74 total UAVs destroyed over RF territory). "Воин DV" claims bomber strikes in Yanvarskyi. TASS confirms Vnukovo airport resumed normal operations. TASS reports RF MoD claims 14 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kaluga, Bryansk, Tula, and Oryol Oblasts. Millerovo military airfield in Rostov Oblast attacked by drones, causing explosions/fires. Temporary flight restrictions implemented at Saratov airport. Kaluga airport has lifted temporary restrictions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Operations (Popov Yar, Bila Hora claim, Malaya Tokmachka claim): RF Ministry of Defense claims ground forces liberated "Popov Yar." Leonid Sharov claims destruction of UAF M113 BTR and Akatsiya SPG, inflicting over 240 personnel losses in Kupiansk, Lyman, and Kupyansk directions. RF sources claim establishment of bridgehead near Guyevo (Kursk Oblast). DeepState reports RF advances in Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, and near three other villages in Donetsk Oblast. MoD Russia provides video of servicemen from 102nd Motorised Rifle Regiment on Popov Yar. RF milbloggers claim RF has opened a new front in Kharkiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares thermal imagery video indicating activity on Chasiv Yar direction. Басурин о главном video confirms Russian military operations near Belaya Gora, claiming capture of foreign weapons. Воин DV video claims destruction of UAF 2S1 Gvozdika. Liveuamap Source provides multiple photo messages of clashes at Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Huliaipole, and Kherson directions, and repelled Ukrainian forces repelled 23 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. Colonelcassad claims a Russian breakthrough in Malaya Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. MoD Russia video shows T-72B3M tank crew destroying AFU stronghold near Zeleny Gai. STERNENKO video reports Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment holding back Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad claims assault troops of 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade advancing in Bila Hora area. Сили оборони Півдня України video shows drone operators conducting reconnaissance of camouflaged enemy positions. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ video shows FPV drone strike on Russian military vehicle. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) [Video message] shows military vehicles advancing, one exploding. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) [Video message] Caption: ‼️🇷🇺🏴‍☠️ Наши ДРГ уже в Покровске! - кадры одной из засад на машину ВСУ (Video shows occupants under fire from inside a vehicle). DeepState reports liquidation of RF sabotage groups in Pokrovsk. COLONELCASSAD HAS PUBLISHED MULTIPLE PHOTOS WITH CAPTIONS "MOMENTS OF THE SVO. FRONTLINE DAYS." LIKELY FROM RF GROUND OPERATIONS. Colonelcassad claims enemy is complaining about RF using lightweight 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from North Korea. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports DeepState analysis that RF army occupied Hrushevske and advanced near Voskresenka, Orikhove, Mayak and Zatyhka (formerly Suvorove) in Donetsk Oblast. TASS claims RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske in DNR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: TASS reports RF forces advanced near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast, dislodging UAF units from several positions. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Popov Yar, Donetsk Oblast: TASS reports a group of Ukrainian servicemen surrendered in Popov Yar, DNR, as stated by Sergey Kolesnikov, commander of the 3rd Assault Company of the "Center" grouping. This is an RF claim of UAF surrender. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • South-Donetsk Direction: Colonelcassad provides video footage of 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade's reconnaissance working in South-Donetsk direction, claiming destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pokrovsk: "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes new video footage, purportedly dashcam footage from a military vehicle, claiming to show the aftermath of combat and destruction, including a previously reported ambush on a UAF vehicle by RF DRG in Pokrovsk. This indicates continued, aggressive RF DRG activity in the area. WarGonzo also provides video claiming Russian DRGs entering outskirts of Pokrovsk. Alex Parker Returns publishes video titled "Ambush on Ukrops' pickup in Pokrovsk. Objective control." This further corroborates the ambush. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Varachino, Sumy Oblast: Операция Z claims Russian army liberated Varachino in Sumy Oblast, attacking in the Sumy direction. This is an unverified RF claim. "Воин DV" also publishes a video from "First Channel" reporting on the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade pushing UAF from Russian borders in Sumy Oblast, showing damaged buildings in Varashino, indicating RF claims of advances in this specific area. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: Colonelcassad publishes a video showing RF engineering-road platoon personnel engaged in demining operations in "liberated territory" in the Kharkiv direction, highlighting dangers from FPV drones. This suggests RF is attempting to consolidate gains and expand its logistical reach in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Luhansk Oblast: TASS reports that RF forces have built new fortifications and observation posts near Chervona Dibrova in Luhansk People's Republic (LPR), and that UAF is actively mining the area. This indicates a contested area with active defensive and offensive engineering by both sides. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tactical Drone Operations: MoD Russia provides video showing "Feniks" (Phoenix) drone in action. The video shows Russian soldiers deploying and operating a drone with a payload, performing reconnaissance and potential attack. This indicates continued RF investment in tactical drone capabilities and their active use. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar: Colonelcassad provides video footage claiming the destruction of a UAF UAV command post on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar. This indicates continued RF counter-drone operations and focus on UAF C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Belgorod Oblast: ASTRA reports two people injured by an FPV drone attack on a vehicle in Leonovka, Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Eastern Ukraine: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Izium, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk were hit by RF strikes on military objects. This is an RF claim, and earlier reports confirm Kramatorsk civilian casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnoarmeysk direction: MoD Russia video claims destruction of a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sloviansk: Colonelcassad publishes video claiming "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk, with a large plume of dark smoke rising, indicating kinetic impact and possible fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chasiv Yar Direction: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes drone footage (likely FPV) from Chasiv Yar direction, showing reconnaissance or strike operations, indicating continued RF activity and drone use in this critical area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Battlefield Engagement: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video showing drone footage of a soldier moving along a road and a close-up of a person on the ground with a burning object, indicating an engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Baba Yaga Drone Destruction: Народная милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" heavy drone by the 33rd Motor Rifle Regiment, with footage showing the drone's perspective. This is an RF claim of counter-drone success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Armored Personnel Carrier Deployment: TASS publishes video showing an RF armored personnel carrier (APC) maneuvering in grassy terrain, indicating continued tactical ground force operations. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle, moving along a road, with one vehicle appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) from the convoy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Krasnoarmeysk Infiltration: Басурин о главном publishes video claiming Russian reconnaissance entered Krasnoarmeysk, noting high activity of special groups in the south of the settlement targeting enemy transport. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes video of DRG activity in Krasnoarmeysk, showing an ambush on a UAF vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Alexandrovgrad Drone Strike: Воин DV publishes drone footage claiming destruction of armored vehicles and personnel by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 5th Guards Tank Brigade in Alexandrovgrad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a propaganda photo message claiming UAF uses civilians as human shields. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novomikhailovka: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of a woman mourning her son, a Russian SMO participant who died storming Novomikhailovka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Hrushevske, Donetsk Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF army occupied Hrushevske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novotoretske, DNR: TASS claims RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske in DNR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• «Зона СВО» video of an individual speaking in Russian, addressing a controversial figure and criticizing their alleged lack of combat experience and slander, suggesting internal RF information operations. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Control Measures: RF maintained temporary flight restrictions, now being lifted. RF actively promoting narrative of successful counter-UAV measures. RF Prime Minister Mishustin announced ~180 billion rubles for border crossing point repairs and openness to investments from "friendly countries." Moldovan national detained for transmitting data on RF Armed Forces to Kyiv. State Duma committee recommended bill introducing administrative liability for digital platform operators. Man detained in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD facilities. Colonelcassad shares a photo of a monument dedicated to "Hitler's allies" in Moldova, accompanied by text criticizing it, indicating RF efforts to leverage historical narratives to influence regional politics and public opinion in Moldova. TASS reports new Moskvich-8 car on sale. TASS reports Sheremetyevo airport is organizing recreation zones for passengers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Operations: "Операция Z" reports the Russian warship "Boykiy" (Steregushchiy class) escorted the tanker "General Skobelev" and the dry cargo ship "Sparta" from the Baltic Sea through the North Sea and English Channel to the Atlantic. Both escorted vessels were previously noted for transporting Russian military equipment from Syria. This demonstrates RF's continued naval presence and sustainment of overseas operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Putin toughened rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports. New message from "Два майора" includes video from "Crimean shores" showing military-style inflatable boat with personnel, indicating continued maritime operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Affairs: The Khabarovsk Krai Police has published photo messages detailing a criminal case regarding hooliganism in an apartment building. This indicates RF's continued focus on internal law and order. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Economic Affairs: TASS reports Prime Minister Mishustin arrived in Chita to hold a meeting on grain exports. This highlights RF's focus on economic stability and export. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Religious Propaganda: "Операция Z" (Русской Весны) has published videos promoting Orthodox Christian traditions and liturgical vestments. This indicates RF's continued use of cultural and religious narratives for internal propaganda, aimed at fostering national unity and traditional values, particularly within the context of military operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Hacking Activity: TASS reports the detention of a young man in Novosibirsk for hacking information resources of Russian companies and organizations. ASTRA reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Slovakia Gas: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Slovakia plans to receive up to 100% of its gas from Russia next year due to EU exceptions. This indicates continued, albeit selective, European economic engagement with RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security: "Два майора" publishes a video discussing the sentencing of Azerbaijani natives involved in organizing illegal migration, indicating RF's focus on internal security and immigration control. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Law Enforcement: Полиция Хабаровского края publishes a video of a formal meeting between officials of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation, focused on internal security and law enforcement cooperation. This indicates RF's continued efforts in maintaining law and order and international cooperation in this domain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Update (Internal Affairs): TASS reports that searches are being conducted at the home of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 also reports this. New message from TASS reports Simonenko detained on charges of abuse of power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Political/Legal: TASS reports the death of Irina Podnosova, the Chairman of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation. This is a significant internal event. TASS confirms the cause of death was cancer. New message from TASS reports Yuri Ivanenko is Acting Chairman of the Supreme Court. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Affairs: Новости Москвы reports on large-scale urban development plans for sports and children's playgrounds to be built in Moscow this year. This is a domestic development initiative. Новости Москвы also highlights "promising sectors for employment" and criticizes the EU for creating a "brain drain" and "new iron curtain." New message from Новости Москвы promotes Moscow Comedy Theatre shows with discounts. Новости Москвы reports scientists have proven a four-day work week without salary reduction improves employee well-being. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Law Enforcement/Dissident Activity: ASTRA reports security forces detained Dmitry Kisiev, head of the headquarters of former presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin. This indicates continued suppression of political opposition within RF. ASTRA also reports two foreign nationals detained near FSB building in St. Petersburg for dancing. Север.Реалии also reports on the detention of tourists for "photographing near the FSB building and dancing." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF MoD Corruption: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports new criminal cases against former Deputy Minister of Defense Pavel Popov for multi-million ruble bribes. This points to ongoing high-level corruption within the RF MoD. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Novorossiysk: TASS reports over 20 apartments damaged by a domestic gas explosion in Novorossiysk. This is a civilian incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • St. Petersburg: ASTRA reports two foreign nationals detained near FSB building in St. Petersburg for dancing. This indicates continued internal security vigilance and control of public behavior. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Foreign Vessel Access: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Putin has toughened rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poland General's Death: TASS, Colonelcassad, and Alex Parker Returns all report the death of Polish General Waldemar Skrzypczak, who previously threatened Kaliningrad. RF milbloggers frame this cynically as "one less" enemy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF MFA Statements: TASS reports RF MFA states RF significantly expanded list of EU representatives and EU institutions banned from entering Russia in response to EU actions. This indicates continued diplomatic retaliation. TASS also reports main statements from RF MFA, including "Western countries continue to use Ukraine as a tool to wage war against Russia." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • FSB Detentions: Военкор Котенок reports FSB detained two Ukrainian special services agents in Russian regions, showing footage of their apprehension and seized materials (chemicals, detonators, firearms), and a confession to planning attacks on railway infrastructure. Операция Z also reports FSB detained three accomplices of Ukrainian special services for preparing terrorist attacks in DNR, Yaroslavl, and Lipetsk Oblasts, showing similar detention footage and confessions related to railway and military infrastructure sabotage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Media Raids: TASS, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, and Север.Реалии report police and OMON conducted searches at "Baza" publication's editorial office and the editor-in-chief's apartment. Alex Parker Returns claims the editor-in-chief was arrested due to illegal dissemination of restricted information. New message from Два майора confirms searches at Baza Telegram channel office. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports a criminal case for exceeding authority has been opened against police officers in Moscow who leaked information, and searches are ongoing at the office of a Telegram channel. This likely refers to the "Baza" incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Funeral: TASS publishes photos and videos from the funeral of film director Yuri Kara. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chechen Cultural Event: Kadyrov_95 publishes video of a theatrical performance at the "Benoevskaya Vesna-2025" festival. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Birth Control Demand: Оперативний ЗСУ reports increased demand for contraceptives in Russia amid Putin's call to raise birth rates. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Negotiations: TASS reports Peskov stated that the discussion of draft memorandums between Moscow and Kyiv will be the topic of negotiations in Istanbul. TASS also reports the Kremlin expects the new round of direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations to take place this week. TASS reports Peskov stated that Moscow and Kyiv need to work a lot before discussing prospects for a summit meeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Territory (Internal Security): An individual in military-style clothing, possibly a captured RF serviceman, is shown blindfolded and bound. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.4. Recent Additions and Updates

• RF Drone Interceptions (Confirmed): RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed overnight. This is an increase from previously claimed numbers. Военкор Котенок also reports 35 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight. Air Force also confirms 42 Russian UAVs attacked overnight. Bryansk Oblast Governor reports 9 more UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sumy KAB Strike (Confirmed): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms Russian KAB strike on Sumy with photo evidence. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. New message from Повітряні Сили ЗС України confirms KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Odesa Civilian Casualty (Confirmed): STERNENKO confirms one person injured in Odesa due to Russian UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Cyber Security (Internal): TASS reports the detention of a young man in Novosibirsk for hacking Russian information resources, indicating RF's ongoing efforts in cyber counter-intelligence. TASS also advises "zero trust" principle against cyber fraudsters. ASTRA reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Propaganda (Morning Message): Fighterbomber's "Good morning from the People's Front" message is a standard propaganda piece. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF Estimated RF Losses (New Data): General Staff of UAF provides updated estimated total combat losses for RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Dnipropetrovsk AD Success (Increased): Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reports 14 enemy UAVs shot down overnight, an increase from previous reports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kryvyi Rih Situation (Confirmed Controlled): Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kherson Civilian Casualty (Confirmed): ASTRA reports one woman injured in Kherson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Netherlands Patriot Contribution (Confirmed): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Netherlands will make a significant contribution to US Patriot AD systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Propaganda (UAF Attacks on RF Civilians): TASS reports Miroshnik's claim that the average number of UAF strikes on civilian objects in RF exceeded 400 per day. This is an RF propaganda figure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Milblogger (Drone Commentary): "Два майора" milblogger expresses regret about RF not focusing on drone development pre-war, indicating a recognition of drone's importance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Milblogger (Thermal Imagers Appeal): "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) appeals for thermal imagers for the front, indicating a specific equipment need for RF forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Bryansk Oblast: AV БогомаZ reports nine Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast overnight. New message from AV БогомаZ reports new "vile attacks" by Ukrainian Nazis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Воин DV provides video of 35th Army artillery and UAV operators destroying satellite communication equipment, personnel, and strongholds in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF MoD Salary Increase: ASTRA reports RF MoD proposes a 7.6% salary increase for military personnel from 1 October 2025. Север.Реалии also reports this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• WarGonzo Frontline Report: WarGonzo provides a front-line summary for the morning of 22.07.25, including maps of Zaporizhzhian, Pokrovskoye, and Donetsk fronts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Millerovo Airfield Attack Confirmation: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms drones attacked Millerovo airfield in Rostov Oblast, citing Russian media. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Drone Interception Video: "Два майора" publishes video claiming a Russian drone intercepts an enemy UAV carrying drones for interception. This is a highly unusual claim requiring further verification. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• RF ELINT Success: Colonelcassad publishes video claiming successful liquidation of UAF militants due to radio intercepts, indicating RF ELINT capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast: Confirmed KAB strike on residential building, one 10-year-old child killed, 7 injured. Reported by ASTRA, RBC-Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦. Photos/videos confirm damage and emergency response. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Samara Oblast, RF: RBC-Ukraine reports drone attack on Samara Oblast, RF. Video footage provided. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: TASS claims destruction of UK-trained UAF unit in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Southern Direction: Сили оборони Півдня України reports continued RF aviation strikes, FPV drone use, and Shahed UAV attacks on frontline settlements and UAF positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sumy Direction: "Два майора" milblogger publishes FPV drone footage claiming to target a UAF soldier in the Sumy direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Slovakia Gas: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Slovakia plans to receive up to 100% of its gas from Russia next year due to EU exceptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Pokrovsk: "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes new video footage claiming to show aftermath of combat and DRG ambush in Pokrovsk. Alex Parker Returns also provides video of ambush on UAF pickup in Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• TASS - Jeffrey Sachs: TASS publishes interview with Jeffrey Sachs criticizing US role in Ukraine conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sumy Civilian Casualties: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports 3 injured, including one child, in Sumy after the night attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kharkiv Oblast Settlements: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports 7 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes during the last day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Donetsk Kill Zone: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade drone operators created a "kill zone" in Donetsk Oblast, destroying multiple enemy vehicles and personnel with FPV drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Bryansk Oblast Searches: TASS reports that searches are being conducted at the home of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New message from TASS reports Simonenko detained for abuse of power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Varachino, Sumy Oblast: Операция Z claims Russian army liberated Varachino in Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Воин DV also reports from this area, claiming 83rd Air Assault Brigade successes. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims Rosgvardia special forces destroyed a German BREM and a Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer in Sumy Oblast, supporting an an advance. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• RF Fortifications, Luhansk: TASS reports RF forces have built new fortifications and observation posts near Chervona Dibrova in LPR, and UAF is actively mining the area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Demining Operations, Kharkiv: Colonelcassad publishes a video showing RF engineering-road platoon personnel engaged in demining operations in "liberated territory" in the Kharkiv direction. This suggests RF is attempting to consolidate gains and expand its logistical reach in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Spiritual-Moral Culture: Новости Москвы reports that "spiritual and moral culture" will be studied in schools. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Political/Legal: TASS reports the death of Irina Podnosova, Chairman of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation, confirmed by the Supreme Court. STERNENKO and ASTRA also report this. TASS confirms cause of death was cancer. New message from TASS reports Yuri Ivanenko is Acting Chairman of the Supreme Court. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Tactical Drone Operation: MoD Russia publishes video showing "Feniks" (Phoenix) drone in action, including deployment and operation for reconnaissance and potential attack. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF PSYOPS: 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України releases a video calling on RF soldiers to surrender, offering humane treatment and monetary rewards. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF Domestic Artillery: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that domestic 155-mm Bohdana-BG howitzers have entered service with the 40th Separate Artillery Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF Anti-Corruption: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the suspension of the President of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine due to a criminal investigation. New message from Офіс Генерального прокурора reports completed investigation into illegal coal mining in occupied Donetsk, with damages over 5 billion hryvnias. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Information Warfare: Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes photo messages claiming that NABU is losing Western support due to Trump's arrival. This is a clear RF disinformation campaign. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Developments: Новости Москвы reports plans for over 800 sports and 1500 children's playgrounds to be built in Moscow this year. This is a domestic development initiative. New message from Новости Москвы promotes Moscow Comedy Theatre shows with discounts. Новости Москвы reports scientists have proven a four-day work week without salary reduction improves employee well-being. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Environmental: ASTRA reports an emergency situation declared in Tyrnyauz, Kabardino-Balkaria, due to a mudslide. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports a damaged bridge in Kabardino-Balkaria due to floods. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF HIMARS Strike: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports HIMARS strikes on an RF S-300 air defense battery, a "Nebo-M" radar, and a "Big Bird" radar in Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) New message from Alex Parker Returns claims UAF video shows HIMARS strike on S-400 in Belgorod, noting poor RF dispersion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for claim, MEDIUM for BDA.)
• RF Milblogger Commentary: Старше Эдды (Older Edda) questions whether US Patriot systems can intercept Russian Kinzhals and Iskanders, given alleged Patriot losses. This is an RF milblogger narrative to undermine confidence in Western AD. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Velyka Novosilka: "Сливочный каприз" publishes photo messages with the caption "22.07.25 Velyka Novosilka - Shevchenko." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kyiv Oblast Internal Security: RBC-Ukraine reports a shooting in Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Security/Crimea: TASS reports three detained in Crimea for monument desecration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Security/Tyumen: "Операция Z" reports migrant detained in Tyumen for threatening teenager. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Anti-Corruption: TASS reports billionaire Matsotsky appealed his in absentia arrest in a bribery case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Krasnolimanskoye Direction: "Два майора" publishes a video showing RF soldiers thanking for aid in the Krasnolimanskoye direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF FSB Activity: FSB reports thwarting activities of three suspects aiding Ukrainian special services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Politics/Oppression: ASTRA reports detention of Dmitry Kisiev, head of the headquarters of former presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Chasiv Yar: Colonelcassad provides video claiming destruction of a UAF UAV command post on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Military Recruitment: Alex Parker Returns publishes videos promoting military service with a 3 million ruble signing bonus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF MoD Corruption: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports new criminal cases against former Deputy Minister of Defense Pavel Popov for multi-million ruble bribes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Poltava Oblast: Office of the Prosecutor General reports large-scale counterfeit perfume/cosmetics manufacturing and sale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Mykolaiv Oblast: Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV detected in Mykolaiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Donbass Civilian Testimonial: Mash on Donbass publishes a video of an individual claiming a doctor said "She died, don't call here anymore." This appears to be a civilian testimonial from a conflict-affected area, likely leveraged for propaganda. Mash on Donbass publishes a photo message titled "Offerings on the drum!" This is an internal channel reference, but suggests continued engagement with civilian narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Andriivka: Военкор Котенок shares civilian testimonial from displaced person from Andriivka, highlighting destruction and humanitarian impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Novorossiysk: TASS reports a domestic gas explosion in Novorossiysk damaging over 20 apartments. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• St. Petersburg: ASTRA reports two foreign nationals detained near FSB building in St. Petersburg for dancing. Север.Реалии also reports on the detention of tourists for "photographing near the FSB building and dancing." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Foreign Vessel Access: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Putin has toughened rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukraine Car Sales: РБК-Україна reports an increase in demand for auto products in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• US Congress - Epstein: TASS reports US Congress committee canceled meetings due to Democratic lawmakers trying to introduce a bill on publishing Epstein case materials. This is an internal US political event, likely amplified by RF to highlight internal US issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF AI Development: TASS reports Russia may get an AI assistant to help people. This is a domestic development initiative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Education Policy: Север.Реалии reports Russian schools will study "Spiritual-Moral Culture of Russia" starting next year. This is a domestic social policy initiative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Affairs: Филолог в засаде (Philologist in Ambush) reports being "buried in studying and comparative analysis of several interesting documents of our opponents," which could relate to internal RF intelligence gathering or information warfare efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Media Raid Aftermath: Alex Parker Returns reports the editor-in-chief of Baza was arrested, confirming the link to illegal information transfer. TASS provides more details on the Baza search. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports a criminal case for exceeding authority has been opened against police officers in Moscow who leaked information, and searches are ongoing at the office of a Telegram channel. This likely refers to the "Baza" incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF MoD Spending: Кирило Буданов (Operatyvnyi ZSU) reports Russia plans to spend ~$1.1 trillion USD on rearmament by 2036. РБК-Україна also reports this, citing Budanov. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Moldova Arrest: TASS reports Moldovan police detained former Democratic Party leader, oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc, in Greece. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Cyberattack Recovery: TASS reports over 100 "Winelab" stores resumed operations after a cyberattack, with full recovery expected within a week. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Krasny Liman: Сливочный каприз publishes photo messages regarding Krasny Liman - Zelyonaya Dolina. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Negotiation Delegation: Colonelcassad and Операция Z confirm Umierov will lead the Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul negotiations. TASS reports Peskov stated that the discussion of draft memorandums between Moscow and Kyiv will be the topic of negotiations in Istanbul. TASS also reports the Kremlin expects the new round of direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations to take place this week. TASS reports Peskov stated that Moscow and Kyiv need to work a lot before discussing prospects for a summit meeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Civilian Car Sales: TASS reports the new Moskvich-8 car is on sale for 2.98 million rubles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Strategic Drone/Missile/Aviation Munitions Strikes (Sustained, Adaptive, CRITICAL VOLUME & DEPTH, Now Multi-Warhead, WIDE GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE, Hypersonic Threat Resurfaced, Enhanced Saturation, FAB Use, NEW KINZHAL ON KYIV, Continued KAB use, Confirmed KAB on Kramatorsk, "Harpies" and Krasnoarmeysk UAV C2 targeting, Confirmed "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk): RF continues to demonstrate an extremely high capability for widespread, high-volume, multi-vector aerial attacks. The confirmed use of Tu-95MS strategic bombers for cruise missile launches (24 missiles), alongside continued massed Shahed drone attacks (426 total), and the re-engagement of MiG-31K for Kinzhal ballistic missile use indicates a sustained and robust deep strike capability. Their ability to simultaneously target Northern, Eastern, Central, and significantly Western Ukraine demonstrates coordination and resource availability. The confirmed use of X-101 with cluster munition warheads in Chernivtsi represents an escalation in lethality. The claimed use of FABs on UAF reserves in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates continued air-to-ground precision strike capability. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, confirming the capability to use hypersonic missiles against the capital. Colonelcassad also claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv. MoD Russia video shows Kub loitering munitions, detailing capabilities and warhead size. RF continues to push Shahed UAVs into Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with 4 reportedly heading towards Pavlohrad, and new groups from Black Sea towards Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts, demonstrating an adaptive capability to launch from various vectors and spread out attacks. The confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa indicates RF willingness to hit urban centers without specific military targets, or a failure of precision targeting. The confirmed KAB strike on Sumy and Kramatorsk demonstrates the continued use of this ordnance against civilian centers. Continued KAB and drone attacks on Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, further confirm this pattern. Ballistic missile threat confirmed for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and now Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi district). Kotsnews reporting on "Harpies" and their kinetic effect on a village, indicating a new, potent loitering munition or PGMs. MoD Russia also claims destruction of a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad's claim of "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk and associated smoke plume indicates continued widespread use of Shaheds against various targets. Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tactical Drone Capabilities (Enhanced, Counter-Drone, FPV Precision): The reported destruction of a UAF D-20 howitzer in Kherson by an RF FPV drone ("Tuman") demonstrates RF's continued and effective tactical integration of drones for precision engagements against UAF artillery assets. The new focus on Rostov Oblast becoming a leader in UAV development, with military tech transfer to civilian applications and expanded production, highlights RF's strategic intent to massively scale its drone capabilities and industrial base. The FPV drone strike on a UAF soldier in Sumy direction and two injured in Belgorod by FPV drone further demonstrates precision targeting capabilities. MoD Russia's video of "Feniks" drone in action further confirms active development and deployment of tactical drones for reconnaissance and kinetic effects. Colonelcassad's video claiming destruction of a UAF UAV command post near Chasiv Yar indicates continued RF counter-drone capabilities. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights counter-drone capabilities. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's drone footage from Chasiv Yar direction indicates continued tactical drone operations. Воин DV's video claiming destruction of armored vehicles and personnel in Alexandrovgrad by 14th Guards Spetsnaz and 5th Guards Tank Brigade further emphasizes RF's advanced tactical drone integration for kinetic effects. New message from Alex Parker Returns shows aerial attack likely from drone, indicating RF drone capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare (Aggressive, Psychological, and Exploitative, Adaptive, Expanding Scope): RF continues to use its military actions to bolster its narrative. Messaging from milbloggers directly aims to terrorize the population and undermine Ukrainian morale, while simultaneously attempting to project overwhelming force and futility of Ukrainian resistance. Dissemination of claimed UAF equipment losses (e.g., Bradley BMP) and drone losses ("Baba Yaga" drones), including the destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit in South-Donetsk direction and a D-20 howitzer in Kherson, and a UAF UAV command post, further reinforce this narrative. RF state media leverages UAF drone attacks on Russian territory to portray Russia as a victim and justify its actions. RF sources promote narratives of internal corruption and social friction within Ukraine (now specifically claiming NABU loses Western "roof" due to Trump). Propaganda focuses on internal RF stability and development. Continued use of historical revisionism. Claims of ground advances (Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Malaya Tokmachka, Starytsia, Varachino, Hrushevske, Novotoretske, Krasnoarmeysk infiltration) and effective DRG ambushes in contested areas (Pokrovsk) are heavily publicized. RF milbloggers employ cynical/mocking language to demoralize Ukrainian audiences. RF attempts to exploit perceived US weakness in drone tactics. Internal RF information operations counter perceived "traitors." RF channels publish content projecting public support. TASS actively uses claimed UAF POW statements to portray desertion and low morale within Ukrainian ranks. RF is attempting to leverage historical monuments in Moldova to portray Ukraine as allied with Nazis. TASS is attempting to influence US political discourse by amplifying statements like Jeffrey Sachs' comments on Trump and Ukraine. TASS is now actively promoting civilian news, such as Russia's representation at an international music contest, likely to normalize the information environment and divert attention from military operations. The publication of a POW interrogation video by TASS (Yevgeny Popelyshkin) indicates RF's continued and adaptable capability to exploit captured personnel for psychological operations, aiming to sow discord and undermine UAF command effectiveness. RF will continue to leverage civilian testimonials, as seen from Kursk Oblast and Mash on Donbass, and now Andriivka, to portray itself as a victim of Ukrainian aggression and to justify its military actions to its domestic audience. RF is increasingly using cultural and religious narratives to foster internal unity and traditional values, as seen with promotion of Orthodox Christian traditions and news about spiritual-moral culture in schools. TASS claims average of 400 UAF strikes on RF civilian objects per day. The new reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia is likely to be leveraged by RF to show continued European reliance and economic influence. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed to project stability and resilience despite high-level losses. RF milbloggers will likely continue to question the effectiveness of Western AD (e.g., Patriot against Kinzhal). Alex Parker Returns' military recruitment videos demonstrate continued information operations to attract personnel. TASS reporting on detentions for monument desecration in Crimea is part of this narrative. TASS reporting on the appeal of a billionaire in a bribery case also frames the internal legal system as functioning. The FSB's claims of thwarting Ukrainian special services are intended to project internal security effectiveness. The detention of a former presidential candidate's staff member highlights RF's control over its political information space. The new criminal cases against a former Deputy Minister of Defense demonstrate the state's willingness to publicize internal corruption issues. News from Moscow criticizing EU "brain drain" highlights economic information operations. TASS reports on the US Congress cancelling meetings over the Epstein case, a clear amplification of internal US political issues to highlight disarray. The cynical framing of the Polish General's death by RF milbloggers also shows continued aggressive information warfare. RF MFA statements reflect continued adaptive diplomatic narratives. FSB detentions and subsequent propaganda videos demonstrate rapid adaptation for internal security and counter-intelligence narratives. Raids on "Baza" publication further highlight suppression of independent media and control over information flow, confirmed by the arrest of the editor-in-chief. RF will use events like the funeral of Yuri Kara and cultural festivals in Chechnya to further project normalcy and stability. Alex Parker Returns' attempts to analyze White House political images and TASS promotion of Moskvich car sales are also part of this information campaign, aimed at projecting internal Russian normalcy and strength. New message from Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 indicates continued RF narrative exploitation of personal tragedies to question the conflict, as seen with the woman mourning her son in Novomikhailovka and questioning Irkutsk mayor's children living in the West. New message from Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF continues to use civilians as human shields, a standard RF disinformation narrative. New message from Colonelcassad uses derogatory term "Narkofyurer" (Narcodictator) for Zelenskyy in relation to negotiations, maintaining aggressive tone. TASS reports Peskov stated that the discussion of draft memorandums between Moscow and Kyiv will be the topic of negotiations in Istanbul, and the Kremlin expects the new round of direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations to take place this week, and Moscow and Kyiv need to work a lot before discussing prospects for a summit meeting. This indicates RF's control over the negotiation narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Artillery Systems (New): Colonelcassad's claim of the use of 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from North Korea indicates a continued and potentially expanding capability to field new or additional artillery systems, potentially supplied by external actors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Border Operations: The identified "Anvar" unit operating in Sumy/Chernihiv border regions demonstrates RF's persistent capability for localized reconnaissance and targeting operations, likely to identify and interdict UAF positions, especially communication and defensive structures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Legal Measures & Internal Control: TASS reporting on the in absentia charging of a blogger for promoting terrorism in Dagestan indicates RF's continued capability and willingness to use legal mechanisms to control internal narratives and suppress perceived extremist content. The Khabarovsk Krai Police reporting on a criminal case indicates continued focus on domestic law and order. The detention of a hacker in Novosibirsk indicates continued focus on cyber security. TASS reports searches at Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko's home, suggesting internal anti-corruption or security operations. "Два майора" discusses sentencing related to illegal migration, indicating internal security focus. The reporting on the death of the Supreme Court Chairman highlights the functioning of the RF legal system. The detentions in Crimea for monument desecration underscore RF's efforts to control historical narratives and public behavior in occupied territories. The detention of a migrant in Tyumen and the appeal of a billionaire in a bribery case indicate continued application of internal law enforcement. The FSB's claims of thwarting Ukrainian special services are intended to project internal security effectiveness. The detention of a former presidential candidate's staff member highlights RF's control over its political information space. The new criminal cases against a former Deputy Minister of Defense for corruption highlight RF's legal mechanisms for internal accountability. Putin's toughening of rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports indicates increased state control over economic interfaces. RF MFA's expanded list of banned EU officials is another example of diplomatic-legal measures. Raids on "Baza" publication, and the subsequent arrest of its editor-in-chief, further highlight suppression of independent media, with the editor-in-chief's arrest signaling a severe enforcement of information control. The detention of an alleged accomplice to Ukrainian special services in St. Petersburg further indicates this. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. TASS reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports a criminal case for exceeding authority has been opened against police officers in Moscow who leaked information, and searches are ongoing at the office of a Telegram channel. This further demonstrates RF's internal control. New message from TASS reports Bryansk Vice-Governor Simonenko detained for abuse of power, facing up to 10 years. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Counter-UAV Capabilities: The successful repulsion of UAV attacks in Rostov-on-Don, Millerovo, Donetsk (Rostov Oblast), and Azov district, as well as three UAVs over Tula Oblast, indicates RF's continued capability to defend against UAF drone incursions, though the scale of each incident is not specified. RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight, including nine over Bryansk Oblast. The FPV drone attack in Belgorod and on Samara Oblast indicates that while RF has AD capabilities, UAF drones can still penetrate and cause damage. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights counter-drone capabilities. New message from Alex Parker Returns implicitly confirms a HIMARS strike on S-400 in Belgorod, indicating RF AD vulnerability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Port Operations in Occupied Territories: The continued operation of Mariupol port, even if understaffed, demonstrates RF's capability to restore and utilize critical infrastructure in occupied territories for logistics and economic purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Projection: The escort operation by the Steregushchiy-class corvette "Boykiy" demonstrates RF's capability to project naval power and secure logistical routes beyond its immediate maritime borders, supporting broader geopolitical interests and military sustainment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • ELINT Capabilities: Colonelcassad's video claiming successful UAF liquidation via radio intercepts indicates RF possesses and utilizes effective Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) capabilities for targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Maneuver Capability (Tactical): TASS video showing an RF APC maneuvering in open terrain indicates continued tactical ground force mobility and presence. Басурин о главном's report of Russian reconnaissance entering Krasnoarmeysk indicates a capability for deep infiltration by special groups. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes video of DRG activity in Krasnoarmeysk, showing an ambush on a UAF vehicle. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle, moving along a road, with one vehicle appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) from the convoy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Long-Term Military Budgeting: Budanov's report on Russia's plan to spend $1.1 trillion USD on rearmament by 2036 indicates a long-term, significant commitment to military modernization and sustainment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:
  • Geographic Expansion into Western Ukraine, Multi-Platform Coordination & Diversionary Tactics (CRITICAL - Including Hypersonic Missile & Cluster Munitions, New FAB Use, NEW KINZHAL ON KYIV, Continued KAB use, Confirmed KAB on Kramatorsk, "Harpies" and Krasnoarmeysk UAV C2 Targeting, Confirmed "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk): Expansion of strategic missile strikes deep into Western Ukraine concurrently with Shahed waves, and re-engagement of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles from MiG-31K targeting deep Western Ukraine and now Kyiv, indicates continued and enhanced adaptation of multi-platform, coordinated deep strikes. Confirmed use of X-101 with cluster munition warheads in Chernivtsi is a critical tactical adaptation. Claimed use of FABs on UAF reserves in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast suggests expansion of precision aviation strikes into central Ukraine beyond frontline areas. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025. Colonelcassad's claim of a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv confirms tactical adaptation to target UAF domestic defense production. RF has adapted to use KABs against Sumy, Dobropillia and Kramatorsk. Continued use of strike UAVs against Eastern Dnipropetrovsk (Samarivskyi district), Poltava Oblast, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. Kotsnews reporting on "Harpies" indicates adaptation to new PGM/loitering munitions. MoD Russia's claim of destroying a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad's claim of "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk and associated smoke plume indicates continued adaptable use of Shaheds across multiple fronts. Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Increased Shahed Volume on Kyiv, Southern Ukraine, and now Kharkiv: Increase in Shahed UAVs targeting Kyiv, emergence of new Shahed groups in Black Sea towards Southern Ukraine, and new groups towards Kharkiv indicates intent to increase saturation. New Shahed threat for Dnipropetrovsk indicates continued spread of drone activity. Alex Parker Returns explicitly states intent to use "Geraniums" (Shaheds) on the frontline due to increased production. Further Shahed activity now reported heading towards Pavlohrad from Zaporizhzhia Oblast and new groups inbound to Mykolaiv and Odesa, indicating RF's continued adaptive use of UAVs for widespread and sequential attacks. The confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa highlights continued adaptive targeting by RF UAVs against urban centers in the south. Сили оборони Півдня України reports continued Shahed use in the Southern direction. RF milblogger blaming UAF AD for civilian damage in Odesa is a new adaptive information tactic. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ballistic Missile Re-engagement on Kyiv and Hypersonic Missile on Western Ukraine and NOW Kyiv: Re-engagement of ballistic missiles on Kyiv and use of Kinzhal hypersonic missile on Ivano-Frankivsk and now Kyiv indicates escalation in munitions used against capital and far-western Ukraine. Latest ballistic missile threat for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates continued targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Operations (Exploitative & Adaptive, Internal Focus, Expanding to US Internal Politics, Information Control Escalation): RF adapted its information operations to exploit UAF deep strikes on Moscow, using lifting of airport restrictions as propaganda, while intensifying demoralizing rhetoric. RF state media disseminating video of claimed ground operations and drone intercept claims. RF milbloggers adapting to exploit non-military events for propaganda. RF is adapting its internal propaganda to address perceived issues and maintain support, including through cultural events and promoting civilian services during disruptions. RF is highlighting US statements on Iran to justify its own geopolitical positioning. Introduction of civilian normalization narratives (music contest, sports/playground development, teacher compensation, airport normalization, funeral of Yuri Kara, Chechen festival, new Moskvich car sales, airport recreation zones, 4-day work week benefits) to divert attention. The rapid dissemination of the captured UAF soldier's statement by TASS demonstrates RF's immediate adaptation of new opportunities for psychological warfare. The deployment of civilian testimonials about alleged UAF shelling in border regions and now from conflict-affected Donbass (Mash on Donbass) and Andriivka is a new adaptation for RF information operations, aimed at generating sympathy and justifying actions to its domestic audience. RF is increasingly using cultural and religious narratives to foster internal unity and support for its operations, including introducing "spiritual and moral culture" in schools. TASS claims average of 400 UAF strikes on RF civilian objects per day. The new reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia is likely to be leveraged by RF to show continued European reliance and economic influence. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be used to project stability and the continuity of the legal system. RF milbloggers actively questioning the effectiveness of Western AD (e.g., Patriot against Kinzhal/Iskander) is a targeted information operation. RF milbloggers' attempts to frame NABU's internal issues as a loss of Western support due to Trump's potential return are a new adaptive information warfare tactic. The immediate use of footage of monument desecration in Crimea for propaganda demonstrates this adaptability. The detention of political opposition figures is a tactic to control the internal narrative. The publicity around high-level corruption cases (Popov) may be an adaptive attempt to project accountability and transparency, or to discredit specific individuals. News from Moscow criticizing EU "brain drain" highlights economic information operations. TASS reports on the US Congress Epstein case (internal US political issue) and the death of Polish General Skrzypczak (cynically framed) demonstrating an adaptive ability to leverage disparate events for propaganda. RF MFA statements reflect continued adaptive diplomatic narratives (e.g., expanded list of EU representatives banned from Russia). FSB detentions and subsequent propaganda videos demonstrate rapid adaptation for internal security and counter-intelligence narratives. Raids on "Baza" media outlet, and the subsequent arrest of its editor-in-chief, signify an escalated and adaptive control over internal information flows and suppression of independent media. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports a criminal case for exceeding authority has been opened against police officers in Moscow who leaked information, and searches are ongoing at the office of a Telegram channel. TASS reports Peskov stated that the discussion of draft memorandums between Moscow and Kyiv will be the topic of negotiations in Istanbul, and the Kremlin expects the new round of direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations to take place this week, and Moscow and Kyiv need to work a lot before discussing prospects for a summit meeting. This indicates RF's control over the negotiation narrative. New message from Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 indicates continued RF narrative exploitation of personal tragedies to question the conflict and its justification. New message from Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 promotes the "human shield" narrative against UAF. New message from Colonelcassad uses derogatory language ("Narkofyurer") against Zelenskyy in relation to negotiations, maintaining aggressive information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "Disunity within Ukraine" Narrative: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" attempts to project internal disunity within Russian society by stating "Разрозненность общества у нас зашкаливает, многие ведут себя как рагули из соседней б/украины." Alex Parker Returns posts video related to TCC and Romani people, attempting to sow discord, and is now actively promoting a narrative about UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky having his parents treated in Moscow, aiming to sow distrust and portray him as a "traitor." RF claims Ukraine has run out of cemetery space. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими video discusses how Russia uses propaganda to sow discord within Ukrainian society. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 [Video message] claims to show TCC bus fleeing an attack by Romani people. The dissemination of footage showing a violent TCC detention in Chernih by Colonelcassad indicates RF's continued and immediate adaptation to exploit internal Ukrainian social tensions, particularly related to mobilization, to sow discord and undermine public trust in Ukrainian authorities. TASS's unverified claim of a UK-trained UAF unit being destroyed in Dnipropetrovsk is another example of attempting to undermine confidence in UAF and its Western support. Операция Z's claim about NABU losing Western "roof" due to Trump is a direct adaptive disinformation campaign targeting Ukrainian internal stability. The TASS report claiming Latin American mercenaries fled Alexandrovgrad after one day is an adaptive narrative to discredit foreign fighters and demoralize UAF. TASS reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. This new information suggests a broad internal campaign against perceived "extremism" that could be linked to disunity narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "RF Stability and Development" Narrative (Internal): Mishustin's statements on airport modernization and border crossing point repairs aim to project an image of internal stability and long-term development. News about fining crypto payments in 2026 attempts to project long-term economic planning. TASS reports FIDE allowing Russian women's chess team to compete under FIDE flag. Kadyrov_95 [Video message] documents a religious event in Chechnya, projecting internal stability and cultural/religious harmony. ASTRA reports that Sheremetyevo Airport has labeled as "fakes" videos showing crowds of passengers in terminals after recent disruptions. Colonelcassad reports for the first time in a long time, he used a Russian Railways train. TASS is promoting ease of entry for foreigners into RF without RuID registration. TASS proposing to return compensation to teachers for methodological literature is a continued adaptive measure to address internal social issues and promote stability. The lifting of flight restrictions at Samara airport and Kaluga airport is a further example of RF's adaptive strategy to normalize internal conditions despite ongoing conflict. TASS reporting on Mishustin's grain export meeting and Khabarovsk police's crime report are further examples of RF adapting to promote internal focus and stability. RF MoD proposal for salary increase signals an adaptive measure to maintain military morale and retention. The reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia, while an economic deal, will be framed internally by RF as a sign of continued influence and resilience. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed as a natural occurrence, with emphasis on continuity and smooth succession. News about Moscow's urban development (sports/children's playgrounds) reinforces the normalcy narrative. The mudslide in Kabardino-Balkaria will likely be portrayed as a civil emergency, demonstrating state response, rather than a military-related impact. RF internal security actions (detentions for monument desecration, migrant detention, anti-bribery cases, FSB operations against alleged Ukrainian spies, detention of political opposition, Novorossiysk gas explosion, St. Petersburg dancing detainees, Moldovan oligarch arrest) are used to project control and order. Putin's toughening of foreign vessel access is presented as a measure for national security. TASS reports on RF AI development to assist people. Север.Реалии reports on "Spiritual-Moral Culture" in schools, indicating adaptive social engineering. The recovery of Winelab stores from a cyberattack is used to project resilience. The funeral of Yuri Kara and the Chechen cultural festival are used for normalization. TASS reports the new Moskvich-8 car is on sale for 2.98 million rubles. TASS reports the Sheremetyevo airport is organizing recreation zones for passengers. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. Новости Москвы reports scientists have proven a four-day work week without salary reduction improves employee well-being. New messages from Новости Москвы promote Moscow Comedy Theatre, indicating continued cultural normalization efforts. New message from Оперативний ЗСУ reports increased demand for contraceptives in Russia, likely to be used for internal propaganda emphasizing family values or a social issue unrelated to conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Artillery Systems: The claimed deployment of 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from North Korea suggests a tactical adaptation to bolster artillery capabilities or compensate for losses, potentially indicating a widening of RF's military supply network. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Persistent Border Reconnaissance: The active deployment of the "Anvar" unit on the Sumy/Chernihiv border, utilizing drones for reconnaissance and targeting, demonstrates a sustained tactical adaptation for identifying and disrupting UAF border defenses. Mykolaiv Oblast reconnaissance UAV also points to this. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs over southeastern Sumy Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast (near Mena, Koryukivka), and southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which may be spotters for enemy weapons systems. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rapid Counter-UAV Response: The reported successful repulsion of UAV attacks in Rostov-on-Don and other areas, including Tula and Bryansk Oblasts, indicates RF's adaptive capability to rapidly respond to and mitigate drone threats against its territory. The reported destruction of 35 UAVs overnight, including nine over Bryansk Oblast, demonstrates an adaptive, scaled response to UAF drone activity. The reported drone attack on Samara Oblast indicates RF's continued vulnerability to UAF deep drone strikes. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights counter-drone tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Exploitation of Occupied Infrastructure: The continued operation of Mariupol port, reported by TASS, demonstrates RF's adaptive strategy to quickly integrate and utilize captured Ukrainian infrastructure for its own logistical and economic benefit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sustained Naval Logistics: The escort operation of military cargo vessels through the Baltic Sea, North Sea, English Channel, and Atlantic demonstrates RF's sustained capability to move military equipment globally via sea, despite international sanctions. Putin's toughening of foreign vessel access may impact commercial maritime logistics. New message from "Два майора" includes video from "Crimean shores" showing military-style inflatable boat with personnel, suggesting continued maritime operations and likely logistical/patrol presence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Increased Domestic Drone Production Focus: RF's intent to make Rostov Oblast a leader in UAV development, with military-to-civilian tech transfer and production expansion, represents a significant adaptive strategy to reduce reliance on external supply and scale domestic drone capabilities for both military and civilian use. Budanov's report on Russia's $1.1 trillion rearmament plan by 2036 underpins this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Exploiting Localized UAF Tactical Setbacks: RF rapidly propagating claims of UAF surrender in Popov Yar and the capture of Varachino demonstrates an immediate adaptation to exploit perceived UAF tactical setbacks for information warfare. TASS's claim of Latin American mercenaries fled Alexandrovgrad after one day is another example. The claims of Rosgvardia successes in Sumy Oblast against UAF BREM and Gvozdika are also part of this. TASS claims RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske in DNR. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports DeepState analysis that RF army occupied Hrushevske and advanced near Voskresenka, Orikhove, Mayak and Zatyhka (formerly Suvorove) in Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Acknowledgement of Drone Importance: "Два майора" milblogger's commentary acknowledging the need for pre-war drone focus indicates an internal adaptation in strategic thinking within RF military-affiliated circles regarding the importance of drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Resource Appeals via Milbloggers: "Операция Z" milbloggers' public appeal for thermal imagers indicates an adaptive tactic to leverage public support for military procurement to address specific equipment needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Adaptive Drone Interception (Unverified): "Два майора" claim of a Russian drone intercepting an enemy UAV that was carrying interception drones represents a highly advanced and, if verified, significant tactical adaptation. However, this specific claim requires further corroboration. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • ELINT-driven Targeting: Colonelcassad's claim of UAF liquidation based on radio intercepts indicates an adaptive use of ELINT for tactical targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • WarGonzo Mapping: WarGonzo's rapid publication of updated frontline maps (Zaporizhzhian, Pokrovskoye, and Donetsk fronts) indicates an adaptive information operation to quickly disseminate RF narratives of tactical changes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Aggressive DRG Activity (Pokrovsk, Krasnoarmeysk): The new video from "Операция Z" and WarGonzo confirming the ambush by RF DRG in Pokrovsk shows an aggressive and adaptive tactical change to conduct high-risk infiltration and direct engagement against UAF vehicles. Басурин о главном's report of Russian reconnaissance entering Krasnoarmeysk also highlights aggressive special group activity. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes video of DRG activity in Krasnoarmeysk, showing an ambush on a UAF vehicle. Alex Parker Returns also publishes video of ambush on UAF pickup in Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Fortifications: RF building new fortifications near Chervona Dibrova in LPR signifies an adaptive defensive posture to consolidate gains and secure lines. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Demining Operations: RF engineers actively engaged in demining in Kharkiv direction indicates adaptive efforts to secure and expand logistical routes in newly controlled or contested areas. New message from Kotsnews comments on RF demining units, highlighting the scale of the threat and calling for attention to humanitarian demining. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Adaptive Tactical Drone Deployment: MoD Russia's "Feniks in action" video showcases adaptive deployment and operational use of tactical drones for reconnaissance and attack. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Targeting of UAF UAV C2: Colonelcassad's claim of destroying a UAF UAV command post near Chasiv Yar and MoD Russia's claim of destroying a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction indicate an adaptive targeting strategy against a critical UAF capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Loitering Munitions/PGMs: Kotsnews reporting on "Harpies" indicates a new or newly highlighted capability in precision strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Military Personnel Recruitment: Alex Parker Returns publishes videos promoting military service with significant signing bonuses, indicating continued adaptive recruitment strategies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Reconnaissance/Maneuver: TASS video of RF APC maneuvering in open terrain indicates adaptive tactical maneuver and reconnaissance capabilities. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle, moving along a road, with one vehicle appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) from the convoy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Enemy Intentions: RF continues to demonstrate an intent to degrade Ukraine's military-industrial complex and military airfield infrastructure through deep strikes, disrupt logistics, and terrorize the civilian population. On the ground, RF aims to consolidate gains in the East, potentially establish new fronts to stretch UAF defenses, and exploit any localized weaknesses. RF's persistent and multi-faceted information campaign aims to demoralize Ukrainian society, undermine international support, and manage domestic perceptions. RF intends to continue internal security operations to suppress dissent and maintain control over information. RF also intends to continue long-term military modernization as evidenced by the reported 2036 rearmament plan. RF's immediate intent regarding negotiations is to discuss draft memorandums and portray a willingness for dialogue while maintaining kinetic pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Enemy Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Rail Logistics Disruption: UAF drone attack on Kamianolomni railway station in Rostov Oblast caused a fire and delayed over 50 trains, indicating a significant, albeit temporary, disruption to RF rail logistics. RF is actively working to restore normal operations. New message from TASS reports all trains to Black Sea resorts on July 22 will follow schedule, suggesting restoration of railway services despite previous weather-related delays. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Air Transport Disruption: UAF drone attacks caused repeated temporary closures of Moscow airports and led to numerous flight cancellations and delays. RF is actively working to restore normal civilian air traffic, exemplified by the recent lifting of restrictions at Samara and Kaluga airports. TASS reports Sheremetyevo airport is organizing recreation zones for passengers amidst recent disruptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Infrastructure Vulnerability (Weather): Heavy rainfall in Moscow and a bridge collapse highlight internal infrastructure vulnerabilities to adverse weather, which could indirectly impact military logistics if severe. The mudslide in Kabardino-Balkaria and the damaged bridge further highlights environmental vulnerabilities. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. This is a domestic civilian incident but can impact local infrastructure/emergency services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Resource Requirements: RF continues to rely on civilian donations for certain equipment ("vehicle kits" for frontline units), indicating ongoing but manageable sustainment needs. The reported use of North Korean 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" suggests RF is willing and able to source military equipment from international partners, potentially to address specific materiel shortfalls or diversify supply. The announced focus on making Rostov Oblast a leader in UAV development, and Alex Parker Returns' military recruitment efforts, indicate a long-term strategic investment in domestic drone production to ensure sustainment and personnel. The appeal for thermal imagers via milbloggers highlights specific ongoing equipment needs. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. This indicates a specific civilian supply chain concern. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Maritime Logistics (Occupied Territories): The reported operation of Mariupol port indicates RF's ability to establish and utilize maritime logistics in occupied territories, potentially supporting resupply efforts for Southern fronts or for economic exploitation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Global Naval Logistics: The escort operation of military cargo vessels through the Baltic Sea, North Sea, English Channel, and Atlantic demonstrates RF's sustained capability to move military equipment globally via sea, circumventing land-based logistical challenges. Putin's toughening of foreign vessel access may impact commercial maritime logistics. New message from "Два майора" includes video from "Crimean shores" showing military-style inflatable boat with personnel, suggesting continued maritime operations and likely logistical/patrol presence. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. This could impact energy logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Impact of UK Sanctions: New UK sanctions against 135 RF "shadow fleet" tankers aim to disrupt RF's oil export revenues, which directly impact RF's ability to finance its war efforts and sustain its military-industrial complex. The long-term impact on fuel supply for military operations will need to be monitored. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Russia reduced liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 7% in the first half of the year due to sanctions, citing the IEA. This confirms a tangible impact of sanctions on a key export. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Personnel Sustainment: The proposed 7.6% salary increase for military personnel indicates RF's awareness of the need to maintain morale and retention for continued personnel sustainment. High-level corruption cases within the MoD (Popov) could, however, impact morale and efficiency. FSB detentions of alleged Ukrainian agents who confessed to planning railway infrastructure attacks suggest active UAF efforts to disrupt RF logistics. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the liquidation of Gennady Starunov, a Russian "Teacher of the Year 2022," who was mobilized. This highlights continued personnel losses. New message from Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shows a woman mourning her son who died storming Novomikhailovka, reflecting the human cost of personnel sustainment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Components Sourcing (New): RBC-Ukraine reports that the majority of components for a new RF UAV are sourced from China. This points to RF's continued reliance on external supply chains for key military technology, despite efforts for domestic production. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Cyberattack on Civilian Supply Chain: The cyberattack on Winelab stores, while civilian, highlights a potential vulnerability that could impact broad civilian logistics and morale. RF is demonstrating ability to recover from such attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness

• Centralized Deep Strike Coordination: The multi-vector, multi-platform nature of the recent aerial assault demonstrates effective centralized C2 for strategic-level operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Tactical Drone Integration: Continued effective integration of FPV and reconnaissance drones for tactical kinetic effects (e.g., against UAF equipment and personnel and now confirmed D-20 howitzer, and a self-propelled artillery unit, and armored vehicles in Alexandrovgrad), combined with alleged ELINT-driven targeting, indicates effective C2 at the unit level. The FPV strike on a UAF soldier in Sumy direction and the FPV strike in Belgorod further demonstrates localized tactical C2 effectiveness. MoD Russia's video of "Feniks" drone in action suggests effective C2 over tactical drone operations. Colonelcassad's claim of destroying a UAF UAV command post and MoD Russia's claim of destroying a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk further indicates this. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights effective counter-drone C2. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Information Operations C2: The rapid and consistent dissemination of RF narratives across various milblogger and state media channels, now including immediate exploitation of POWs, violent TCC detentions, and civilian testimonials (Mash on Donbass, Andriivka), indicates a highly centralized and effective C2 over information operations. The coordinated push of civilian-focused news (music contest, teacher compensation, airport normalization, internal crime reports, grain export meetings, religious propaganda, military salary increases, "spiritual and moral culture" in schools, urban development in Moscow, funeral of Yuri Kara, Chechen festival, new Moskvich car sales, airport recreation zones, 4-day work week benefits) by TASS and other RF channels indicates well-managed C2 over state media narratives for domestic audiences. The immediate reporting and video dissemination of the Kramatorsk KAB strike by RF milbloggers and state media, framing it as a successful military action despite civilian casualties, indicates agile C2 for propaganda. The rapid framing of the NABU scandal as a loss of Western support, the narrative of "Latin American mercenaries" fleeing, and the targeting of UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky with personal information also indicate adaptive C2 for disinformation. The immediate reporting on detentions for monument desecration and other internal security events also falls under this C2. The cynical framing of the Polish General's death demonstrates coordinated narrative control. RF MFA statements further indicate centralized diplomatic messaging (e.g., expanded list of EU representatives banned from Russia). FSB detentions and associated video propaganda demonstrate agile C2 for counter-intelligence messaging. Raids on "Baza" publication, and the subsequent arrest of its editor-in-chief, further demonstrate C2 over internal media and information suppression. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports a criminal case for exceeding authority has been opened against police officers in Moscow who leaked information, and searches are ongoing at the office of a Telegram channel. TASS reports Peskov stated that the discussion of draft memorandums between Moscow and Kyiv will be the topic of negotiations in Istanbul, and the Kremlin expects the new round of direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations to take place this week, and Moscow and Kyiv need to work a lot before discussing prospects for a summit meeting. This indicates RF's control over the negotiation narrative. New message from Colonelcassad immediately ties Umierov's new role to negotiations, indicating close C2 over diplomatic narratives. New message from Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 promotes the "human shield" narrative, showing coordinated disinformation efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Security Operations C2: The successful detention of alleged Ukrainian intelligence agents, the internal NABU operation, and the FSB's recent report of thwarting Ukrainian special services suggest effective counter-intelligence C2 within RF. The in absentia charging of a blogger for promoting terrorism, Khabarovsk police report on hooliganism, Novosibirsk hacking arrest, searches at Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko's home, the detention of a migrant in Tyumen, and the arrest of Moldovan oligarch Plahotniuc demonstrates RF's ability to maintain C2 over legal mechanisms for internal security. The swift reporting on repelling drone attacks in Rostov, Tula, and other areas, with updated high interception numbers including Bryansk Oblast, indicates effective C2 for internal air defense and immediate information dissemination. The reporting on the death of the Supreme Court Chairman, emphasizing a smooth transition, projects stability in the judicial C2. The detention of a political opposition figure also demonstrates C2 over political dissent. The ongoing high-level corruption cases against former MoD officials also fall under internal C2. The detention of two foreign nationals for dancing in St. Petersburg and the Novorossiysk gas explosion response show continued internal security vigilance and crisis management. Putin's toughening of rules for foreign vessel access also highlights C2 over border security. FSB detentions of alleged Ukrainian agents planning attacks on railway infrastructure (Военкор Котенок, Операция Z) indicate effective C2 over counter-terrorism. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. TASS reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports a criminal case for exceeding authority has been opened against police officers in Moscow who leaked information, and searches are ongoing at the office of a Telegram channel. This further demonstrates RF's internal control. New message from TASS confirming detention of Bryansk Vice-Governor Simonenko, and the subsequent report of charges, demonstrates effective C2 over internal anti-corruption operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Adaptation to Civilian Disruptions: RF authorities (e.g., Moscow Mayor, Minister of Transport, Rostov acting governor) demonstrate effective C2 in managing civilian disruptions from UAF drone attacks and adverse weather, including rapid lifting of flight restrictions and coordination of recovery efforts, and planning for future drone development. The declaration of an emergency situation in Kabardino-Balkaria due to a mudslide and the damaged bridge also show C2 responsiveness to internal environmental events. The rapid recovery of Winelab stores from a cyberattack demonstrates C2 over critical civilian infrastructure. TASS reports Sheremetyevo airport is organizing recreation zones for passengers. New message from TASS reports on scheduled trains to Black Sea resorts, indicating C2 over rail system recovery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ground Operations C2: Liveuamap Source reports multiple clashes across various axes, and WarGonzo's updated maps (Zaporizhzhian, Pokrovskoye, and Donetsk fronts) indicate coordinated ground operations C2, even if localized. The claimed advances near Starytsia, the claimed surrender at Popov Yar, the claimed capture of Varachino, and the claimed infiltration of Krasnoarmeysk, and now the claimed liberation of Hrushevske and Novotoretske, if verified, would point to effective localized ground C2 and targeting. The new video of DRG activity in Pokrovsk and Krasnoarmeysk further highlights localized, aggressive ground C2. RF's ability to conduct demining operations in Kharkiv direction and build new fortifications in Luhansk also indicate effective engineering C2. Rosgvardia's claimed successes in Sumy Oblast also point to effective localized C2. TASS video of APC maneuvering indicates C2 over tactical ground units. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle, moving along a road, with one vehicle appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) from the convoy. This highlights challenges in tactical movement C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Naval C2: The coordinated escort of military cargo vessels from the Baltic Sea to the Atlantic demonstrates effective C2 for projecting naval power and supporting logistics over extended distances. New message from "Два майора" shows military-style inflatable boat near Crimean shores, suggesting continued naval C2 for patrols or tactical operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Long-Term Military Planning C2: Budanov's report on Russia's $1.1 trillion rearmament plan by 2036 indicates centralized, long-term strategic C2 for military development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian force posture and readiness

• Air Defense (AD) Posture (Strained but Effective): UAF AD remains fully engaged and highly effective, with 224 targets destroyed and 203 UAVs suppressed, demonstrating a robust response to the multi-domain RF aerial assault. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast's increased interception of 14 UAVs overnight demonstrates sustained local AD effectiveness. This, however, comes at a critical cost to interceptor stockpiles. The engagement across a vast geographic area, including successful interceptions over Chernivtsi and Kyiv, confirms nationwide coverage and readiness. The deployment of mobile AD units (ZU-23 on trucks) in Mykolaiv demonstrates tactical adaptation and continued readiness for drone threats. AD active in Odesa against incoming Shaheds. The commitment from the Netherlands for Patriot AD systems is a positive development for long-term readiness. Latest report of 26 downed/suppressed UAVs and 7 neutralized by REB indicates continued effectiveness against drones (Air Force reports 42 RF drones attacked). Confirmed ballistic missile threat to Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk (Samarskyi district) indicates continued AD readiness requirements. The detection of a reconnaissance UAV in Mykolaiv Oblast indicates continued AD readiness requirements. Ukraine and Denmark are developing an AI-powered drone interceptor. The showcasing of F-16s with support equipment and the receipt of mobile complexes for F-16 maintenance indicates preparations for modern air defense/offense. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Possible AD work. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Update (AD): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs over southeastern Sumy Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast (near Mena, Koryukivka), and southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which may be spotters for enemy weapons systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ground Forces Posture (Defensive & Adaptive, localized offensive capability): UAF ground forces are primarily in a defensive posture, particularly in the Eastern and Southern axes, repelling multiple RF assaults (23 on Kursk/Sumy axis, 4 in Kherson direction, 22 in Kursk and North Slobozhansky directions). Liveuamap Source, citing UAF General Staff, details yesterday's clashes across numerous Eastern axes, indicating active defensive engagements. Training activities (61st OMBr tank crews) indicate continued efforts to maintain combat readiness. Confirmed capture of 5 RF personnel in Kursk Oblast (if verified) indicates successful tactical engagements by UAF forces on the border. GUR's claimed use of ground robots and drone operators conducting deep logistics interdiction demonstrates an adaptive and innovative posture. Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment holding back RF advances in Donetsk Oblast indicates continued localized ground resistance and readiness. UAF 63rd Mechanized Brigade reports liquidation of 33 RF personnel via drone operations, indicating an active offensive posture at the tactical level. The 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade's success in creating a "kill zone" in Donetsk Oblast demonstrates highly effective FPV drone tactical capabilities. The introduction of domestically produced 155-mm Bohdana-BG howitzers further enhances UAF's long-range artillery capabilities. The 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade is actively recruiting drone operators, indicating a continued focus on integrating unmanned systems. The mobilization of approximately 9500 convicts into AFU ranks reflects efforts to address personnel needs. Photos of a UAF soldier with a weapon aim to project professionalism and readiness. ОТУ "Харків" provides daily information on the operational situation in its zone, indicating continued vigilance. STERNENKO provides video from "Sanitary Zone Flying Skull" showing drones on fiber optics flying into enemy positions, destroying a car, motorcycle, and enemy property and ammunition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Tactical Information: Liveuamap Source, citing UAF General Staff, reports: Clashes at Toretsk direction yesterday near Dyliyivka, Romanivka, Toretsk, Oleksandro-Kalynove, Novospaske and towards Katerynivka and Pleschiyivka. Clashes at Sieversk direction yesterday near Serebryanka, Verkhnokamyanske and Pereyizne. Clashes at Lyman direction yesterday near Novyy Myr, Karpivka, Kolodyazi, Yampolivka, Torske and towards Serebryanka, Serednye, Shandryholove, Hryhorivka. Clashes at Novopavlivka direction yesterday near Zirka, Piddubne, Myrne, Shevchenko, Dachne and towards Novokhatske, Temyrivka, Oleksandrohrad, Voskresenka. Clashes at Kramatorsk direction yesterday near Bila Hora and towards Predtechyne. Clashes at Kupyansk direction yesterday near Holubivka, Kupyansk, Pischane, Zahryzove, Zelenyi Hai and towards Bohuslavka. Clashes at Orikhiv direction yesterday near Kamyanske. Clashes at South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction yesterday near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Stroyivka, Zapadne and Kutkivka. Clashes at Pokrovsk direction yesterday near Popiv Yar, Volodymyrivka, Novotoretske, Mykolayivka, Udachne, Novoekonomichne, Lysivka, Zvirove towards Novoukrayinka, Pokrovsk, Dachne, Myrnohrada, Mayak. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Tactical Information: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video showing aeroreconnaissance from the 4th battalion of the 101st Brigade of the General Staff of the AFU targeting a Russian occupant hiding in a sleeping bag in a field. This indicates continued tactical ISR and kinetic capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Security Readiness (Active Counter-Intelligence): The large-scale SBU/OGP operation against NABU employees, including the detention of a senior detective suspected of aiding RF, indicates a high state of internal security readiness and a proactive stance against Russian influence. Ukrainian police also helped neutralize pro-Russian hacker network NoName057(16). The suspension of the President of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine highlights continued anti-corruption efforts. The reported shooting in Vasylkiv, while a civilian incident, highlights the need for continued internal security vigilance. The Prosecutor General's Office initiating investigations into attacks on Odesa, Donetsk, and Sumy highlights proactive legal measures. The ongoing NABU information leak investigation, with discovery of sensitive documents, further highlights this focus. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports a court has remanded NABU employee Viktor Husarov into custody without bail until September 20 or the end of the pre-trial investigation. РБК-Україна reports that an employee of NABU's "most elite closed unit," suspected of treason, has had a pre-trial detention measure chosen. STERNENKO's reporting on the potential for legislation to undermine NABU/SAP independence indicates ongoing internal political challenges to anti-corruption efforts. New message from Оперативний ЗСУ reports NABU and SAP official statement on draft law #12414, indicating continued engagement and defense of their independence. New message from РБК-Україна reports Rada considering bill to limit NABU/SAP powers today, highlighting an immediate internal security/political challenge. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Overall Readiness (Sustained by External Aid and Domestic Focus): Ukraine's overall military readiness is sustained by a combination of continued international military aid (e.g., Patriot systems, Canadian tank repairs, Netherlands aid), as well as a critical focus on increasing domestic weapons and drone production, as articulated by President Zelenskyy. The ongoing discussions for additional NATO funding (5% increase) also contribute to long-term readiness planning. High morale and defiance observed. President Zelenskyy's moratorium on baseless business checks aims to improve the internal economic environment for stability and readiness. Participation in Ramstein meetings signifies continued high-level strategic coordination. Chief of General Staff's diplomatic engagement reinforces this. Zelenskyy's meeting regarding negotiation results indicates active diplomatic and strategic planning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Emergency Services Readiness: The swift and effective response by DSNS (State Emergency Service) personnel, including firefighters, to the extensive civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa and Sumy demonstrates a high level of readiness and capability in managing large-scale emergency situations resulting from RF attacks. The immediate response to the Kramatorsk KAB strike further confirms this readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kryvyi Rih Stability: Local administration confirms controlled situation in Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• PSYOPS Capability: The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade's video appealing to RF soldiers to surrender, offering incentives, demonstrates an active and adaptive PSYOPS capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Soldier Welfare Initiatives: Information on pensions for military personnel highlights focus on soldier welfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Prisoner of War Issues: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the death of the oldest civilian prisoner, Oleksandr Markov (74), in Russian captivity, indicating continued issues regarding POW welfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Recent tactical successes or setbacks

• Tactical Successes:
  • High AD Interception Rate: UAF AD successfully intercepted or suppressed 224 aerial targets by fire and 203 UAVs through REB. Dnipropetrovsk AD shot down 14 UAVs. Latest report confirms 26 UAVs shot down/suppressed and 7 neutralized, out of 42 RF drones. New message from Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports AD engagement of UAV near Odesa, and UAV heading towards Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Deep Strike on RF Logistics: Successful UAF UAV strike on Kamianolomni railway station in Rostov Oblast, causing significant disruption to RF rail logistics. This has been further confirmed by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Targeted RF AD Destruction: Successful UAF drone strike on an RF S-400 (92N6E MLRS) system in Belgorod Oblast, significantly degrading RF AD capabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports HIMARS strikes on an RF S-300 battery, "Nebo-M" radar, and "Big Bird" radar in Belgorod Oblast, which, if verified, would be a major success against RF AD. New message from Alex Parker Returns claims UAF video shows HIMARS strike on S-400 in Belgorod. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for drone strike, MEDIUM for HIMARS strike).
  • Innovative Tactical Deployments: Confirmed deployment of UAF GUR ground robots in combat (Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions) and successful use of ground drones for medical evacuation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Deep Logistics Interdiction: UAF drones demonstrating capability to cut deep RF logistics (30-40km behind lines) and create kill zones, as seen with the 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade's "kill zone" in Donetsk Oblast, and STERNENKO's "Sanitary Zone Flying Skull" operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Counter-battery Success: UAF 44th Artillery Brigade successfully targeted and destroyed an RF 2A65 Msta-B howitzer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Personnel Losses: UAF 63rd Brigade claiming extensive RF personnel losses through drone strikes. UAF General Staff provides updated RF loss estimates. The 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade's FPV drone operations resulted in multiple enemy personnel losses. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the liquidation of Gennady Starunov, a Russian "Teacher of the Year 2022," who was mobilized. This is a significant personnel loss. New message from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shows UAF drone engaging a Russian occupant hiding in a sleeping bag. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Liquidation of RF Sabotage Groups: DeepState reports liquidation of RF sabotage groups in Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cyber Security Success: Ukrainian police helped neutralize pro-Russian hacker network NoName057(16). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Repatriation: Ukraine returned a teenager forcibly taken from Mariupol to Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kinetic Impact on RF Military Airfield: Successful drone attack on Millerovo military airfield in Rostov Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Response Effectiveness: Confirmed rapid and effective response by State Emergency Service (DSNS) to large-scale civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa and Sumy. Confirmed rapid response in Kramatorsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Netherlands Patriot Contribution: Commitment from the Netherlands to contribute to Patriot AD systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Internal Drone Attack: Confirmed drone attack on Samara Oblast, RF. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade Counter-Drone Ops: Video from the 47th Brigade suggests successful engagements against RF ZALA drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Domestic Artillery Deployment: Domestic 155-mm Bohdana-BG howitzers entering service with the 40th Separate Artillery Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Corruption: Suspension of the President of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences for criminal investigation. Continued NABU information leak investigation. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports a court has remanded NABU employee Viktor Husarov into custody without bail. РБК-Україна reports an employee of NABU's "most elite closed unit" has had a pre-trial detention measure chosen. New message from Офіс Генерального прокурора reports completed investigation into illegal coal mining, indicating success in combating financial crimes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Counterfeit Operations: Successful operation against counterfeit perfume/cosmetics manufacturing in Poltava Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Convict Mobilization: Successful integration of approximately 9500 convicts into AFU ranks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Drone Interceptor Development: Development of AI-powered drone interceptor with Denmark. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • F-16 Project: Showcasing of F-16 and "new project" indicating progress in Western aviation integration. Air Force received first unique mobile complexes for F-16 maintenance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF LNG Export Reduction: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Russia reduced liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 7% in the first half of the year due to sanctions. This is a confirmed success of sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Tactical Setbacks:
  • Widespread Civilian Casualties and Damage: RF deep strikes resulted in 13 confirmed fatalities and numerous injuries across multiple oblasts, including a new fatality in Odesa and injured in Vasylivskyi District, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy. A woman injured in Kherson. A 10-year-old child killed and 7 injured in Kramatorsk due to KAB strike on a residential building. Significant damage to civilian infrastructure confirmed, with images of a burning supermarket ("Kopiika") in Odesa and damaged infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Civilian infrastructure in Dobropillia also hit by drones and KABs. Colonelcassad reports "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk with smoke plumes. RF milblogger claims UAF AD caused civilian damage in Odesa. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • AD Munitions Expenditure: High rate of AD engagements indicates critical expenditure of interceptor munitions, contributing to urgent $6 billion procurement gap. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Continued RF Aerial Penetration: Despite high interception rates, RF missiles and drones continue to penetrate UAF AD, causing kinetic effects, including Kinzhal impacts on Kyiv and Western Ukraine. The KAB strike on Kramatorsk and Dobropillia are clear examples of continued penetration. Ballistic missile threat for Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk (Samarskyi district). A reconnaissance UAV detected in Mykolaiv Oblast indicates continued RF ISR penetration. RF continues to target UAF UAV C2, as seen in Chasiv Yar and Krasnoarmeysk. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs over southeastern Sumy Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast (near Mena, Koryukivka), and southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a RF reconnaissance UAV from the southeast is heading towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Unconfirmed RF Ground Advances: RF claims of opening new front in Kharkiv, breakthroughs in Malaya Tokmachka, capturing Bila Hora, and liberating Varachino, and now Hrushevske and Novotoretske, if verified, would represent significant tactical setbacks. RF claim of advances near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast, if verified, would also be a setback. RF claim of UAF surrender in Popov Yar, if verified, is a localized setback. Claims of Rosgvardia successes in Sumy Oblast against UAF BREM and Gvozdika. RF claims Russian reconnaissance entered Krasnoarmeysk. (CONFIDENCE: LOW for breakthroughs, MEDIUM for new front, MEDIUM for Starytsia, MEDIUM for Popov Yar surrender, MEDIUM for Varachino, MEDIUM for Rosgvardia claims, HIGH for Krasnoarmeysk reconnaissance, HIGH for Hrushevske and Novotoretske as per RF/DeepState claims).
  • Increased Risk to Western Aid Corridors: RF's expanded deep strike targeting of Western Ukraine implies growing need for enhanced security and hardening of logistical corridors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Putyvl Community Drone Strike: Civilian infrastructure in Putyvl community (Sumy Oblast) struck by RF drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Drone Losses: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports enemy shooting down more Ukrainian reconnaissance drones. Народная милиция ДНР claims destruction of a "Baba Yaga" drone. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Civilian Friction (Mobilization): Unconfirmed report of "Gypsies attacking a TCC bus" points to social friction. The Chernihiv TCC incident further highlights the potential for public discontent regarding mobilization. The shooting in Vasylkiv, while not directly related, adds to a climate of internal security concerns. STERNENKO's commentary on potential legislation to undermine NABU/SAP independence indicates ongoing internal political challenges. New message from РБК-Україна reports Rada considering bill to limit NABU/SAP powers today, highlighting a potential setback for anti-corruption efforts and public trust. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • RF DRG Ambush in Pokrovsk: Colonelcassad video confirms an ambush by RF DRG on a UAF pickup truck in Pokrovsk, with visible injuries. New video from "Операция Z" and Alex Parker Returns further corroborates and highlights this aggressive DRG activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • KAB Strike on Sumy: RF strike on Sumy with KABs resulted in damage and 12 civilian injuries. New message from Повітряні Сили ЗС України confirms KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Loss of UAF Robotic Platform: Colonelcassad video shows a UAF robotic platform targeted and likely destroyed by an RF drone. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Civilian Risk in Zaporizhzhia Evacuation: TASS reports late evacuation notices in Zaporizhzhia Oblast from UAF may put civilians in active combat zones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Odesa Civilian Infrastructure Damage: Confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa due to RF UAV attack, as shown in new photo and video evidence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Loss of D-20 Howitzer (Kherson): TASS reporting on the destruction of a UAF D-20 howitzer by RF FPV drones in Kherson Oblast represents a tactical loss of an artillery piece. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Loss of UAF Artillery (South-Donetsk): Colonelcassad claim of destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit in South-Donetsk direction represents a tactical loss of an artillery piece. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Disputed RF Drone Interception: "Два майора" claim of a Russian drone intercepting an enemy UAV is unverified and highly speculative. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Loss of UAF Unit (Dnipropetrovsk): TASS claims a UK-trained UAF unit was destroyed in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This is an unverified RF claim, but if true, would be a tactical setback. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • UAF Personnel Loss (Sumy Direction): "Два майора" video showing FPV drone strike on a UAF soldier in Sumy direction, with claimed successful engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Loss of UAF UAV C2: Colonelcassad's claim of destroying a UAF UAV command post near Chasiv Yar and MoD Russia's claim of destroying a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction represents a tactical setback in UAF drone C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Andriivka Civilian Displacement: Civilian testimonial indicates significant destruction and displacement in Andriivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Loss of Armored Vehicle/Personnel (Alexandrovgrad): RF drone footage from Воин DV claims destruction of UAF armored vehicles and personnel in Alexandrovgrad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Death of Civilian Prisoner: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the death of the oldest civilian prisoner, Oleksandr Markov (74), in Russian captivity, indicating a significant human rights issue and potential war crime if neglect or abuse is confirmed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Tactical Vehicle Incident: Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle, moving along a road, with one vehicle appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) from the convoy. This indicates a tactical setback or operational challenge for RF ground forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.3. Resource requirements and constraints

• Critical Air Defense Munitions: Most urgent requirement is accelerated resupply of AD interceptors, especially for ballistic and hypersonic missile defense. Reported $6 billion procurement gap highlights this. Netherlands' contribution to Patriot systems and €200M for interceptor drones is positive but needs to be expedited. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Drones and Counter-Drone Capabilities: Ongoing urgent requirement for more drones (FPV and reconnaissance) for UAF units. Complementary REB means are critical. Appeals for drones from units like Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 and STERNENKO underscore this need. The development of an AI-powered drone interceptor with Denmark is a positive long-term step. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Domestic Production Capabilities: President Zelenskyy's directive to increase Ukraine's share of domestic weapons production to 50% within six months indicates strategic shift. The introduction of Bohdana-BG howitzers is a positive step. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• International Financial Support: Continued and increased international financial support is vital, especially for AD systems and maintenance of armored vehicles (Netherlands €125M for F-16 maintenance). NATO's potential additional funding is significant. Participation in Ramstein confirms ongoing support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Logistical Security: Increased targeting of Western Ukraine implies growing need for enhanced security and hardening of logistical corridors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Personnel Motivation/Well-being: Zelenskyy's emphasis on financial motivation suggests recognized need to boost morale and retention. The TCC incidents highlight the need for continued oversight of mobilization practices to maintain public support and morale. Convict mobilization signals a widening of the recruitment pool to address personnel constraints. Focus on military pensions indicates attention to welfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Financial Resources for Defense Procurement: Stated need for $6 billion is a direct and pressing financial constraint. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Aid for Civilian Casualties: Recent KAB strike on Sumy and UAV strike on Odesa and Kherson highlights ongoing need for humanitarian aid and resources for civilian recovery. The KAB strike in Kramatorsk and drone/KAB attacks on Dobropillia and civilian displacement from Andriivka further emphasizes the immediate and critical need for humanitarian aid and civilian protection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Components for Domestic Drone Production: The GUR report on the origin of RF UAV components from China indicates a need for UAF to monitor and potentially disrupt RF's access to critical foreign components for its own domestic production. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• F-16 Maintenance Capacity: The receipt of first unique mobile complexes for F-16 maintenance addresses a critical long-term requirement for integration and sustainment of Western airpower. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Economic Reform: РБК-Україна reports Svrydenko's primary task as PM is to "increase exports," which is a critical economic resource requirement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and disinformation campaigns

• Russian Federation (RF) Narratives:
  • Overwhelming Force & Ukrainian Weakness: RF amplifying scale of aerial attacks, especially Kinzhal strikes on Kyiv, to create sense of overwhelming force and demoralize Ukrainian population. Claims of UAF equipment and drone losses, now including a D-20 howitzer and a self-propelled artillery unit in South-Donetsk, armored vehicles in Alexandrovgrad, and a UAF UAV command post. RF also claiming UAF surrender in Popov Yar and capture of Varachino, and now Hrushevske and Novotoretske. RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight, including nine over Bryansk Oblast. WarGonzo provides updated maps to illustrate claimed RF advances. Confirmed KAB strike on Kramatorsk and Dobropillia used to portray overwhelming force. Claim of UK-trained UAF unit destroyed in Dnipropetrovsk aims to undermine confidence in UAF and Western aid. FPV drone strike on UAF soldier in Sumy direction highlights RF tactical lethality. MoD Russia's "Feniks" in action video promotes tactical drone prowess. Kotsnews reporting on "Harpies" hunting, portraying advanced kinetic capabilities. Rosgvardia's claimed successes in Sumy Oblast against UAF BREM and Gvozdika are also part of this. RF claims Izium, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk hit military objects. RF milbloggers like Старше Эдды actively question the effectiveness of Western AD (e.g., Patriot vs. Kinzhal/Iskander) to undermine confidence in Western military aid. Alex Parker Returns' military recruitment videos aim to project strength and opportunity. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further reinforces this. TASS video of RF APC maneuvering reinforces ground capability. Colonelcassad's "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk will be used as evidence of effectiveness. Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle, moving along a road, with one vehicle appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) from the convoy, and uses it to frame a success ("Быть добру!"). New message from Alex Parker Returns claims UAF video shows HIMARS strike on S-400 in Belgorod, framing it to highlight poor RF dispersion, possibly undermining confidence in UAF capabilities. New message from Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a photo message claiming UAF uses civilians as human shields, reinforcing negative portrayal of UAF tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Victimhood: RF state media leveraging UAF drone attacks on Russian territory to portray Russia as victim of "Ukrainian aggression" and justify actions. Amplified by TASS reporting on memorial for 5-year old boy in Kursk. The new civilian testimonial from Kursk Oblast and Mash on Donbass, and Andriivka, is a direct effort to portray RF as a victim of Ukrainian aggression and elicit sympathy. TASS reports average of 400 UAF strikes on RF civilian objects per day. FPV drone attack in Belgorod, injuring two, further fuels this narrative. RF milblogger blaming UAF AD for civilian damage in Odesa is a direct information operation to shift blame and portray UAF as reckless. FSB reports and videos of alleged Ukrainian agents caught planning railway attacks further fuel this victimhood narrative. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. TASS reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. New message from AV БогомаZ reports new "vile attacks" by Ukrainian Nazis, fueling victimhood narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Ukrainian Disunity/Corruption: RF sources heavily promoting narratives of internal corruption (NABU scandal – now claiming NABU loses Western "roof" due to Trump, and leveraging the new information leak findings) and social friction (e.g., TCC and Romani incident, Syrsky's parents being treated in Moscow). The release of the POW interrogation video is a direct attempt to amplify perceived internal disunity and undermine UAF command credibility by portraying commanders as abusive and soldiers as demoralized. The dissemination of footage showing a violent TCC detention in Chernih by Colonelcassad is a direct and immediate RF information operation to exacerbate internal social tensions regarding mobilization in Ukraine, aiming to erode public trust and readiness. TASS's claim of Latin American mercenaries fled Alexandrovgrad after one day is intended to discredit foreign fighters and demoralize UAF. Bloomberg article by Mark Champion, amplified by TASS, on corruption potentially disrupting European weapon supplies to Ukraine, is a direct information operation to sow doubt about aid effectiveness. RF milbloggers will leverage the NABU info leak investigation to further these narratives. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports a court has remanded NABU employee Viktor Husarov into custody without bail. РБК-Україна reports that an employee of NABU's "most elite closed unit" has had a pre-trial detention measure chosen. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Stability & Development: Propaganda focuses on internal stability, economic resilience, and infrastructural development to project normalcy. TASS promotion of Russia's participation in international cultural events (Intervision) aims to normalize the perception of Russia for both domestic and international audiences. TASS proposal to return compensation to teachers for methodological literature is an ongoing effort to promote internal stability and public welfare, presenting RF as a caring state. The lifting of flight restrictions at Samara airport and Kaluga airport is further used to project normalization. The reporting on Mariupol port operations, emphasizing its functionality despite staffing levels, is another attempt to normalize the situation in occupied territories and project RF's administrative capacity. RF internal reporting on criminal cases (billionaire Matsotsky), economic meetings (grain exports), and internal security operations (Bryansk Vice-Governor – now confirmed detained for abuse of power, illegal migration, monument desecration in Crimea, migrant detention in Tyumen, FSB operations, detention of Nadezhdin's staffer, Popov corruption case, Novorossiysk gas explosion, St. Petersburg dancing detainees, Moldovan oligarch arrest) also serve to project a focus on stability and governance. RF milbloggers' sharing of Orthodox Christian traditions also works to foster internal unity, reinforced by state initiatives to study "spiritual and moral culture" in schools. Rostov Oblast's focus on UAV development signals innovation and future stability. RF MoD proposed salary increase for military personnel aims to project positive conditions for service. The reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia, while an economic deal, will be framed internally by RF as a sign of continued influence and resilience. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed as a natural occurrence, with emphasis on continuity and smooth succession. News about Moscow's urban development (sports/children's playgrounds) reinforces the normalcy narrative. Putin's toughening of foreign vessel access is presented as a measure for national security. TASS reports on RF AI development to assist people. Север.Реалии reports on "Spiritual-Moral Culture" in schools, indicating adaptive social engineering. The recovery of Winelab stores from a cyberattack is used to project resilience. The funeral of Yuri Kara and the Chechen cultural festival are used for normalization. TASS reports the new Moskvich-8 car is on sale for 2.98 million rubles. TASS reports the Sheremetyevo airport is organizing recreation zones for passengers. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. Новости Москвы reports scientists have proven a four-day work week without salary reduction improves employee well-being. New messages from Новости Москвы promote Moscow Comedy Theatre, indicating continued cultural normalization efforts. New message from TASS reports all trains to Black Sea resorts will follow schedule, promoting restored normalcy in transport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Historical Revisionism: Continued use of historical narratives to justify actions and demonize Ukraine. RF leveraging monument in Moldova to portray Ukraine as allied with Nazis. Басурин о главном publishes "DAY in HISTORY" content, likely to reinforce historical narratives. The cynical framing of Polish General Skrzypczak's death by RF milbloggers, emphasizing his "inadequate level of hatred for Russia," is a new adaptive form of historical revisionism and propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "RF Tactical Success": Claims of ground advances (Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Malaya Tokmachka, Starytsia, Varachino, Krasnoarmeysk infiltration, Hrushevske, Novotoretske), effective DRG ambushes (Pokrovsk, Krasnoarmeysk), confirmed artillery destruction by FPV drones (Zaporizhzhia, South-Donetsk, Alexandrovgrad), and successful downing of UAF drones over Tula and Bryansk Oblasts heavily publicized. Colonelcassad's claim of ELINT-driven UAF liquidation and destruction of a UAF UAV C2 highlights RF intelligence successes. New video of aggressive DRG activity in Pokrovsk and Krasnoarmeysk is being used to highlight RF tactical successes. RF demining operations in Kharkiv and new fortifications in Luhansk are also highlighted as successes. Rosgvardia's claimed destruction of a German BREM and Gvozdika also promotes tactical success. Narodnaya militsiya D.P.R.'s claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone is a new example. MoD Russia publishes video showing drone teams destroying AFU armored hardware and fortifications. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle, moving along a road, with one vehicle appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) from the convoy, and uses it to frame a success ("Быть добру!"). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cynical/Demoralizing: RF milbloggers frequently employ cynical or mocking language. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" post about Odesa residents being "happy from liberation" is an example of cynical/mocking language. The cynical framing of the Polish General's death ("Ещё один не явился на войну. Соскочил. Быть добру!") is a new, potent example of demoralizing language. New message from Colonelcassad uses derogatory language ("Narkofyurer") against Zelenskyy in relation to negotiations, maintaining aggressive and cynical tone. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Exploiting Perceived US Weakness: RF milbloggers attempting to exploit perceived "slow adoption" of advanced drone tactics by US military. TASS amplifies commentary critical of US support for Ukraine, as seen with Trump's comments on Iran. TASS publishing the Jeffrey Sachs interview, criticizing US refusal to prevent conflict, is a direct attempt to undermine US credibility and support for Ukraine. TASS reporting on the US Congress Epstein case (internal US political issue) and the death of Polish General Skrzypczak (cynically framed) demonstrating an adaptive ability to leverage disparate events for propaganda. Alex Parker Returns' attempts to analyze White House political images as positive "victories" of US policy is a further extension of this. RBC-Ukraine's report that Iran is open to indirect negotiations with the US on a new nuclear deal provides a nuanced perspective on Iran's diplomatic stance, potentially indicating a degree of flexibility despite public rhetoric, and will be monitored for implications on broader geopolitical alignments. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal RF Dissident Counter-Narrative: RF milbloggers actively countering perceived "traitors." Филолог в засаде's self-description implies counter-intelligence or information warfare against "opponents." (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Projection of Public Support: RF channels publishing content designed to project widespread public support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Exploiting UAF POW Narratives: TASS actively using claimed UAF POW statements to portray desertion and low morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Satirical Content on Azerbaijani Leadership: Some RF milbloggers using satirical content targeting Azerbaijani leadership, as seen with ASTRA's report on Z-bloggers criticizing Sergey Markov. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
  • Global Power Dynamics: TASS is exploiting Donald Trump's statements about potential US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities to highlight US aggression and implicitly justify Russia's own actions against Ukraine as a response to perceived Western threats. TASS reporting on Israeli advisor's negative comments regarding Gaza ceasefire further demonstrates RF's intent to highlight global disunity and perceived Western hypocrisy/ineffectiveness. TASS's reporting on RF MFA's expansion of banned EU officials reinforces a narrative of strong retaliation against perceived EU aggression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Acknowledgement of Drone Importance: "Два майora" milblogger's commentary acknowledging the need for pre-war drone focus indicates an internal discussion and propaganda effort aimed at framing past strategic decisions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Addressing Equipment Needs: The appeal for thermal imagers from "Операция Z" is a dual-purpose message: to solicit aid and to portray the military as resourceful and supported by the public. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zelenskyy Characterization: Военкор Котенок characterizes Zelenskyy as "monopolizing power" and becoming a "dictator," implying that he is driven by a need for "victories/spectacles" for the populace. This is a direct RF information operation to discredit Ukrainian leadership. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NABU "Lost Western Roof" Narrative: Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) explicitly pushes the narrative that NABU is losing Western "cover" due to Trump's arrival. This is reinforced by TASS leveraging a Bloomberg article about corruption in Ukraine potentially disrupting weapon supplies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Negotiation Narrative: TASS reports Peskov stated that the discussion of draft memorandums between Moscow and Kyiv will be the topic of negotiations in Istanbul, and the Kremlin expects the new round of direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations to take place this week, and Moscow and Kyiv need to work a lot before discussing prospects for a summit meeting. This indicates RF's control over the negotiation narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukrainian (UAF) / Pro-Ukrainian Narratives:
  • German Domestic Preparedness: RBC-Ukraine's photo messages about Germany preparing for a "Putin attack" by potentially drafting women/pensioners for logistics duties appears to be a UAF or pro-Ukrainian information operation. This is likely intended to underscore the broad threat posed by Russia to European security and to encourage continued/increased international support for Ukraine, potentially by emphasizing that the conflict has wider implications and could demand greater sacrifices from NATO allies. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Highlighting RF Atrocities: The immediate release of video and photo evidence by RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU of civilian infrastructure damage and ongoing firefighting operations in Odesa (including "Kopiika" supermarket), and RBC-Ukraine's reporting on casualties in Sumy from KABs (including a child), aims to highlight RF's targeting of civilians and generate international condemnation and support. The immediate and widespread reporting on the Kramatorsk KAB strike, emphasizing the child fatality, is a critical component of highlighting RF atrocities and reinforcing calls for international support. STERNENKO's statement "росіяни заслуговують тільки на смерть" reflects and amplifies the public outrage at these atrocities. RBC-Ukraine's reporting on drone and KAB attacks on Dobropillia also serves this purpose. The Prosecutor General's Office opening investigations into these attacks reinforces this. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the liquidation of Gennady Starunov, a Russian "Teacher of the Year 2022," who was mobilized. This is used to highlight RF losses. New message from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the death of the oldest civilian prisoner in Russian captivity, Oleksandr Markov, highlighting RF atrocities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UK Sanctions Effectiveness: Reporting on new UK sanctions against RF's "shadow fleet" tankers is a narrative promoting the effectiveness of international pressure against RF. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Russia reduced liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 7% in the first half of the year due to sanctions. This further confirms the effectiveness of sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emphasis on RF Losses: UAF General Staff provides regular updates on estimated RF combat losses, aiming to boost friendly morale and demonstrate effectiveness. The 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade's video of "kill zone" operations effectively demonstrates RF losses. The reporting on HIMARS strikes against RF AD in Belgorod (if verified) will be a key narrative for UAF. STERNENKO provides video from "Sanitary Zone Flying Skull" showing drones on fiber optics flying into enemy positions, destroying a car, motorcycle, and enemy property and ammunition. This also highlights RF losses. New message from Alex Parker Returns claims UAF video shows HIMARS strike on S-400 in Belgorod, implicitly acknowledging RF loss. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Call for Donations: STERNENKO's call for donations ("Ранок треба починати із кави/чайку та донату на русоріз!") and his drone raffle are consistent messaging themes to generate public support and funding for the war effort. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Internal Drone Attack: RBC-Ukraine reports on the drone attack on Samara Oblast, RF, which serves to highlight UAF long-range strike capabilities and RF vulnerability. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Commemoration of Fallen Soldiers: Daily minute of silence promotions by UAF General Staff, Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, Operatyvnyi ZSU, and KMVA reinforce national unity and remembrance, fostering morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Highlighting RF Components Sourcing: RBC-Ukraine's report on RF UAV components being largely from China is likely intended to pressure international partners to tighten export controls and sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF PSYOPS for Surrender: The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade's video appealing to RF soldiers to surrender, offering incentives, is a direct psychological operation aimed at weakening RF morale and increasing defections. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Highlighting RF Internal Issues: STERNENKO's immediate reporting on the death of RF Supreme Court Chairman Podnosova, using stark language, aims to highlight perceived internal vulnerabilities or instability within Russia. The reporting on the searches at Bryansk Vice-Governor's home also highlights internal issues. The raids on "Baza" media outlet, and the arrest of its editor-in-chief, will be highlighted as suppression of dissent. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. TASS reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. This further highlights RF internal issues. Operatsiya Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports a criminal case for exceeding authority has been opened against police officers in Moscow who leaked information, and searches are ongoing at the office of a Telegram channel. This will be leveraged. New message from TASS confirming detention of Bryansk Vice-Governor Simonenko and associated charges, and from Север.Реалии detailing multiple arrests, indicate internal governance issues that could impact public trust, though they may be framed as anti-corruption successes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Economic Reform: Zelenskyy's moratorium on business inspections, reported by RBC-Ukraine, promotes a narrative of economic reform and support for business. New message from РБК-Україна regarding Svrydenko's primary task as PM to increase exports reinforces narrative of economic reform and resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAV Recruitment: DeepState's recruitment video for drone operators emphasizes active defense and recruitment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Convict Mobilization: RBC-Ukraine's reporting on convict mobilization in AFU highlights an adaptive approach to personnel needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukraine-Denmark Drone Interceptor: RBC-Ukraine highlighting joint AI-powered drone interceptor development showcases innovation and international cooperation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Netherlands Aid for AD/F-16: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting on specific Netherlands aid package highlights continued strong international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pope Dialogue with ROC: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting on Pope's desire to restore dialogue with Russian Orthodox Church highlights diplomatic complexities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Trump Threats to RF: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting on Trump threatening RF due to his wife is a narrative to influence public opinion, likely designed to generate support from US political spheres. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Car Market Rebound: RBC-Ukraine's report on increased demand for auto products in Ukraine projects economic resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ramstein Meeting Participation: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ highlighting high-level participation in Ramstein meeting, reinforcing message of strong international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Professionalism of UAF: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishing photos of UAF soldiers with weapons and positive captions aims to project professionalism and capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Diplomatic Engagement: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ showcasing Chief of General Staff's address to foreign diplomats emphasizes Ukraine's active diplomatic front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • F-16 Project: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine showcasing F-16 and "new project" is a strong narrative of technological advancement and Western military integration. RBC-Україна reports Air Force received first unique mobile complexes for F-16 maintenance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Rearmament Spending: Кирило Буданов (Operatyvnyi ZSU) reporting on RF's $1.1 trillion rearmament plan by 2036 serves to emphasize the long-term threat and the need for sustained Western support. РБК-Україна also reports this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NABU/SAP Independence: STERNENKO and Оперативний ЗСУ highlight the potential legislative changes that could undermine the independence of NABU and SAP, raising concerns about anti-corruption efforts. New message from Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна highlights concerns about draft law #12414 limiting NABU/SAP powers, a critical narrative regarding institutional independence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zelenskyy Meetings: Zelenskiy / Official posting photos of meetings on negotiation results highlights active leadership and diplomatic engagement. New message from Оперативний ЗСУ reports Rustem Umierov will lead Ukrainian negotiation delegation in Istanbul. New message from Операция Z (RF source) confirms Zelenskyy meeting Umierov and Yermak before negotiations, reinforcing the Ukrainian diplomatic posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Targeting of Russian Occupants: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of UAF drone operators targeting a Russian occupant hiding in a sleeping bag, promoting UAF effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public sentiment and morale factors

• Ukraine:
  • Resilience & Determination: Despite casualties and damage, public and official sentiment remains determined. The emotional language used by "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" regarding Odesa's suffering reflects high public anger and defiance. The death of a child in Kramatorsk will undoubtedly intensify public anger and resolve against RF aggression, but also potentially cause grief and trauma. Daily moments of silence and commemorations reinforce collective resolve. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Concerns over Mobilization: Unverified report of "TCC bus attack" and the verified violent TCC detention in Chernihiv point to growing social friction and a potential for public backlash against mobilization efforts. The shooting in Vasylkiv, while an internal crime, adds to the general public concern about security. While convict mobilization is a necessity, its public reception needs monitoring. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Internal Security & Trust: NABU scandal and G7 ambassadors' concern could negatively impact public trust. The suspension of the President of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences also impacts trust, but anti-corruption efforts are generally positive. Zelenskyy's moratorium on business inspections aims to bolster trust and support from the business community. The new NABU information leak findings, and the potential for legislation to undermine NABU/SAP independence, will further strain public trust. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports a court has remanded NABU employee Viktor Husarov into custody without bail. РБК-Україна reports that an employee of NABU's "most elite closed unit" has had a pre-trial detention measure chosen. New message from Оперативний ЗСУ reports NABU and SAP official statement on draft law #12414, indicating public attention to institutional independence. New message from РБК-Україна reports Rada considering bill to limit NABU/SAP powers, highlighting immediate public concern. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Motivation for Military Personnel: Zelenskyy's emphasis on financial motivation suggests recognized need to boost morale and retention. Appeals for equipment like those from the "Rubizh" brigade and STERNENKO's drone raffle indicate public engagement in support of military needs. The PSYOPS video offering incentives for surrender aims to lower RF morale and indirectly boost UAF morale by highlighting potential RF weakness. Focus on military pensions aims to boost morale and retention. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • High Morale: Visual evidence supports high morale among Ukrainian military personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Impact of KAB/UAV Strikes: KAB strikes on urban centers like Sumy and UAV attacks on Odesa and now Kramatorsk and Dobropillia will continue to cause fear and distress and potentially strain local resources. The visible damage in Odesa, amplified by local mayor photos and new video evidence, and civilian casualties in Odesa, Sumy (including a child), and Vasylivskyi District, and Kherson will negatively impact local public morale and trust. Civilian testimonial from Andriivka further emphasizes civilian suffering. RF milblogger blaming UAF AD for Odesa civilian damage attempts to sow public distrust in UAF. Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Risk to Civilians in Zaporizhzhia: RF reporting on late evacuation notices could generate negative public sentiment towards UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Stability in Key Cities: Statements like "Kryvyi Rih: Situation Controlled" aim to reassure local populations amidst attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Economic Indicators: Increased car sales indicate some economic resilience and return to normalcy. Fluctuations in currency exchange rates will be monitored for public impact. New message from РБК-Україна reports Svrydenko's focus on increasing exports, indicating public attention to economic performance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Prisoner of War Welfare: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the death of the oldest civilian prisoner, Oleksandr Markov, in Russian captivity. This will likely cause public outrage and demands for accountability regarding POW welfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia:
  • Controlled Narrative: Public sentiment heavily influenced by state-controlled media emphasizing RF "victories." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Impact of UAV Attacks: Reports of airport closures, train delays, and internal incidents from UAF drone attacks likely cause inconvenience and frustration. TASS report on memorial for 5-year old boy in Kursk aims to generate sympathy. The new civilian testimonial from Kursk Oblast and Mash on Donbass, and Andriivka, is specifically designed to reinforce public sentiment of victimhood and justify continued conflict. RF MoD's elevated UAV interception numbers aim to reassure the public. The drone attack on Samara Oblast, if widely reported internally, could cause concern among the local populace but will likely be framed as a successful AD operation or a minor incident by state media. FPV drone attack in Belgorod, injuring two, further fuels this narrative. FSB detention videos reinforce perceived threats and state protection. TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. TASS reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. New message from AV БогомаZ reports new "vile attacks" by Ukrainian Nazis, likely reinforcing public sentiment of victimhood. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mixed Morale Signals (Military): Interview with 35th Marine Brigade soldier criticizing leadership suggests underlying discontent. The proposed military salary increase aims to positively influence morale. Calls for equipment from channels like Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 and "Операция Z" indicate specific needs, potentially reflecting shortfalls that impact morale if unaddressed. Alex Parker Returns' recruitment videos are attempting to boost personnel. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the liquidation of Gennady Starunov, a Russian "Teacher of the Year 2022," who was mobilized. This is a tangible personnel loss. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle, moving along a road, with one vehicle appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) from the convoy, this could indicate issues impacting morale. New message from Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shows a woman mourning her son who died in SMO, reflecting potential morale issues due to casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Frictions: Public backlash in Sevastopol against Kadyrov's portrait and VK blocking of critical groups indicate underlying social and political frictions. The searches at Bryansk Vice-Governor's home highlight ongoing internal issues. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman, while framed as natural, could cause some internal uncertainty, though state media will quickly move to reassure. Detentions in Crimea for monument desecration, the migrant detention in Tyumen, and the detention of Nadezhdin's staffer highlight internal tensions and state control. High-level corruption cases (Popov, Matsotsky) may generate public cynicism. The detention of foreign nationals for dancing in St. Petersburg and the raids on "Baza" media outlet, including the editor-in-chief's arrest, indicate strict social control and suppression of dissent. Operatsiya Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports a criminal case for exceeding authority has been opened against police officers in Moscow who leaked information, and searches are ongoing at the office of a Telegram channel. This highlights internal frictions. New messages from TASS confirming detention of Bryansk Vice-Governor Simonenko and associated charges, and from Север.Реалии detailing multiple arrests, indicate internal governance issues that could impact public trust, though they may be framed as anti-corruption successes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Normalization of Losses: Continued reporting on military casualties normalizes losses for the Russian public. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Impact of Arrests on Public Opinion: Detentions of alleged Ukrainian intelligence agents, hackers, and those involved in illegal migration are used to demonstrate internal security effectiveness. The arrest of Moldovan oligarch Plahotniuc, if widely reported, could be used to project RF's reach in prosecuting alleged criminals. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Normalization of Foreign Entry: TASS report on simplified entry for foreigners without RuID registration aims to portray normalcy and openness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emphasis on cultural achievements (Intervision, "spiritual and moral culture" in schools, new sports/children's playgrounds in Moscow, Chechen festival, new Moskvich car sales, airport recreation zones) attempts to boost public morale and divert from war-related stress. The funeral of Yuri Kara is also used to project societal normalcy. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. Новости Москвы reports scientists have proven a four-day work week without salary reduction improves employee well-being. New messages from Новости Москвы promote Moscow Comedy Theatre shows, contributing to the cultural normalization effort. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Focus on Domestic Issues: TASS reporting on legislative proposals (e.g., teacher compensation), criminal cases, and economic meetings (grain exports) signals attention to public welfare, aiming to maintain a sense of stability and address domestic concerns amidst ongoing conflict. Novorossiysk gas explosion will be managed as a domestic civil emergency. TASS report on RF AI development aims to project positive social development. Winelab cyberattack recovery promotes stability. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. This could be framed as an economic win for internal consumption. New message from Оперативний ЗСУ reporting increased demand for contraceptives in Russia amid Putin's call to raise birth rates highlights internal social dynamics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mariupol Port Operations: Reporting on the operational status of Mariupol port, aiming to demonstrate successful integration of occupied territories and improve public perception of RF's administrative effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Social Trends: The report on high sales of micro-earphones during exams suggests common social trends continue in Russia, implicitly reinforcing normalcy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Environmental Challenges: Mudslide in Kabardino-Balkaria and the damaged bridge may cause localized distress but will likely be managed as a civil emergency. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Long-Term Military Spending: Буданов's report on Russia's $1.1 trillion rearmament plan by 2036, if publicized internally, could be used to demonstrate long-term strategic strength and national resolve. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.3. International support and diplomatic developments

• Support for Ukraine (Strong, but Resource-Dependent):
  • Continued Military Aid: 29th Ramstein meeting yielded commitments for 5 Patriot systems (Germany/US), Canadian financial support, ammunition rounds, and drone funding. UK launching 50-day campaign. Norway ready to provide additional AD funding. Netherlands will provide a significant contribution to US Patriot systems, including €200M for interceptor drones and €125M for F-16 maintenance. Ramstein participation by UAF Minister of Defense highlights this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Engagement: Ukraine actively engaging in international diplomacy. Chief of General Staff addressing foreign diplomats indicates active diplomatic efforts. Zelenskyy's meeting regarding negotiation results indicates continued high-level diplomatic focus. New message from Оперативний ЗСУ confirms Rustem Umierov will lead Ukrainian negotiation delegation in Istanbul. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Negotiation Developments: Zelenskyy's confirmation of new negotiations with Russia in Istanbul on 23/24 July indicates active diplomatic efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Accountability Focus: Ukraine's continued push for Special Tribunal reinforces diplomatic objective. New message from Офіс Генерального прокурора reports completed investigation into illegal coal mining in occupied Donetsk, contributing to accountability narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Concerns over NABU Scandal: G7 Ambassadors expressing alarm over NABU scandal could negatively impact future aid. New message from Оперативний ЗСУ reports NABU and SAP official statement on draft law #12414, indicating a critical internal development for international support. New message from РБК-Україна reports Rada considering bill to limit NABU/SAP powers today, potentially impacting international trust. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • German Domestic Preparedness Narrative: The RBC-Ukraine photo message regarding Germany's preparedness potentially being tied to a "Putin attack" is a pro-Ukrainian narrative aimed at bolstering international resolve and support. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • New UK Sanctions: The UK's new sanctions on RF's "shadow fleet" tankers demonstrate continued and adaptive international pressure on Russia, specifically targeting its economic lifeblood. This action reinforces international support for Ukraine through economic warfare. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Russia reduced liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 7% in the first half of the year due to sanctions. This further confirms the effectiveness of sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kramatorsk KAB Strike: The confirmed child fatality in Kramatorsk will likely galvanize international condemnation against RF and bolster calls for increased aid and accountability. The Prosecutor General's Office opening investigations into these attacks further solidifies the case for international action. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF UAV Components from China: GUR's report on RF UAV components sourced from China could be used diplomatically to pressure China and other suppliers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • AI Drone Interceptor Development: Joint development of an AI-powered drone interceptor with Denmark strengthens international technological cooperation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • F-16 Project: The F-16 project video and news of mobile complexes for maintenance highlights international cooperation and advanced military technology transfer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Rearmament Spending: Budanov's report on RF's $1.1 trillion rearmament plan by 2036, if shared diplomatically, can be used to emphasize the enduring nature of the threat to partners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Polish Gas Reserves: TASS reports data on Polish gas field reserves will be confirmed in 5 months. This is relevant to Europe's energy security and independence from RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Support for Russia (Limited, but Stable):
  • Iran Military Cooperation: Continued military cooperation between Iran and Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Economic Cooperation: Hungary's discussions with Serbia on oil pipeline for Russian oil indicate continued economic cooperation. TASS reporting on Mishustin meeting regarding grain exports also highlights economic cooperation efforts. TASS reports the District Court of The Hague has lifted the arrest from Gazprom's share in a joint venture with Wintershall in the North Sea. This is a positive economic development for RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • China's Stance: China's statement about "decisive measures" can be interpreted by RF as continued diplomatic backing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Dialogue (Selective): Russia maintains diplomatic engagement with "friendly countries" and is willing to engage in negotiations with Ukraine. TASS reports Peskov stated that the discussion of draft memorandums between Moscow and Kyiv will be the topic of negotiations in Istanbul. TASS also reports the Kremlin expects the new round of direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations to take place this week. TASS reports Peskov stated that Moscow and Kyiv need to work a lot before discussing prospects for a summit meeting. This indicates a controlled diplomatic narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Resilience to Sanctions: Russia managing impact of sanctions and adapting to economic pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Speculation on Putin-Trump Meeting: Continued speculation in RF media about Putin-Trump meeting projects future high-level diplomatic relevance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Iran's Stance on US Negotiations: Iran's statement to TASS that it is "not ready for direct negotiations with the US" reinforces narrative of united front against perceived Western pressure. TASS is amplifying Donald Trump's statements about potential US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, likely to frame the US as aggressive and unpredictable on the international stage. RBC-Ukraine's report that Iran is open to indirect negotiations with the US on a new nuclear deal provides a nuanced perspective on Iran's diplomatic stance, potentially indicating a degree of flexibility despite public rhetoric, and will be monitored for implications on broader geopolitical alignments. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cultural Diplomacy: RF's promotion of participation in international music contests (Intervision) and religious traditions (Orthodox Christianity) can be viewed as an attempt to project an image of normalcy and cultural engagement on the international stage, potentially aiming to soften its image. The funeral of Yuri Kara and the Chechen cultural festival are also elements of this. New message from Новости Москвы promote Moscow Comedy Theatre shows, contributing to cultural diplomacy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • North Korean Military Aid: The reported use of 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from North Korea (DPRK) indicates that RF continues to draw upon a limited but persistent network of international military support, circumventing sanctions and expanding its materiel base. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Disagreement (Gaza): TASS reporting on Israeli advisor's rejection of the 25-country FM statement on Gaza ceasefire illustrates ongoing international disunity, which RF can leverage to portray a fracturing Western-led order. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Slovakia Gas Deal: Slovakia's reported plan to receive up to 100% of its gas from Russia next year demonstrates a continued, albeit exceptional, economic link with an EU member, which RF will leverage for propaganda about its resilience to sanctions and influence in Europe. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Jeffrey Sachs Interview: TASS publishing the interview with Jeffrey Sachs criticizing the US role serves to legitimize RF narratives within the international information space, particularly in academic and anti-Western circles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kazakhstan-Russia Law Enforcement Cooperation: The meeting between Kazakhstan and Russian Federation law enforcement officials demonstrates continued bilateral cooperation in internal security, reinforcing regional ties and counter-terrorism efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Bloomberg Article on Corruption: TASS leveraging Bloomberg's article on corruption in Ukraine potentially disrupting European weapon supplies indicates a direct and adaptive diplomatic effort to undermine aid and support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pope Dialogue with ROC: Pope's reported desire to restore dialogue with Russian Orthodox Church indicates a potential avenue for soft diplomacy, though heavily influenced by the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Retaliation: RF MFA's expansion of banned EU officials indicates continued diplomatic retaliation against EU support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Exploitation of US Internal Politics: TASS reports on the US Congress Epstein case, demonstrating RF's willingness to amplify internal US political issues to portray disunity or dysfunction in the West. Alex Parker Returns' attempts to analyze White House political images as positive "victories" of US policy is a further extension of this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cynical Exploitation of Adversary's Death: RF milbloggers' cynical commentary on the death of Polish General Skrzypczak, who threatened Kaliningrad, indicates a willingness to exploit any opportunity for psychological warfare and to reinforce the narrative of "enemies" being removed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moldovan Oligarch Arrest: TASS reporting on the arrest of Moldovan oligarch Plahotniuc in Greece, if framed as an RF-driven effort, could project RF's influence in pursuing alleged criminals internationally. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poland Gas Reserves: TASS reports data on Polish gas field reserves will be confirmed in 5 months. This is relevant to RF's energy diplomacy and Europe's energy security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Turkey Travel Accident: TASS reports six injured in bus accident near Antalya, an internal Turkish civilian event, but TASS reporting of it indicates broader focus on global news, possibly to project normalcy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most likely enemy courses of action (MLCOA)

• Sustained Multi-Domain Deep Strike Campaign: RF will continue its high-volume, multi-vector aerial assault using Shaheds (42 planned for this morning), cruise missiles (from Tu-95MS), and ballistic missiles, including Kinzhals, against critical infrastructure and urban centers across Ukraine, with a particular focus on Kyiv and Western logistics hubs. The aim is to deplete UAF AD, disrupt logistics, and exert psychological pressure. Expect sustained Shahed activity in Southern Oblasts, including Mykolaiv and Odesa, and further probes into Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava, and now towards Kryvyi Rih. Expect sustained aviation munitions threats to Donetsk (including Dobropillia, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk) and Sumy oblasts, including continued KAB strikes on urban centers. The confirmed damage and casualties in Odesa, Sumy, Kramatorsk, and Dobropillia suggest continued willingness to directly target and terrorize urban populations in the South, Northeast, and East with UAVs and KABs. Ballistic missile threats will continue, as seen in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk. Expect continued use of advanced loitering munitions/PGMs (e.g., "Harpies"). RF will continue to target UAF UAV control posts (e.g., Krasnoarmeysk direction, Chasiv Yar). RF will continue to attempt to shift blame for civilian casualties onto UAF AD (e.g., Odesa Shkolny airfield incident). Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. New message from Повітряні Сили ЗС України confirms KAB launches on Sumy Oblast, and UAV heading to Odesa and Kryvyi Rih, and reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy, Chernihiv, and Zaporizhzhia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Continued Ground Attrition in Donbas: RF will maintain relentless, attritional ground assaults across the Eastern axis (Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Chasiv Yar, Velyka Novosilka, Krasny Liman), likely attempting to leverage any perceived advances (Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Hrushevske, Novotoretske) to achieve tactical breakthroughs, even if localized. The claimed UAF surrender in Popov Yar signals continued RF pressure in this area. WarGonzo maps indicate continued focus on these areas. The sustained and aggressive DRG activity in Pokrovsk and claimed reconnaissance infiltration into Krasnoarmeysk indicates RF will continue to probe and attempt localized gains in this sector. RF will continue to reinforce positions with fortifications and engineering efforts (e.g., Chervona Dibrova). Expect continued efforts to disrupt UAF UAV C2 (Chasiv Yar, Krasnoarmeysk). Liveuamap Source details widespread clashes across these axes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Probing and Shaping Operations on Northern/Southern Axes: RF will continue reconnaissance-in-force, localized ground assaults, and drone/KAB strikes in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts (including areas like Starytsia, and claimed liberation of Varachino), and along the Zaporizhzhia front (Malaya Tokmachka, Kamyanske, Alexandrovgrad). This is aimed at fixing UAF reserves, identifying weaknesses, and creating conditions for potential larger-scale offensives. Expect continued drone reconnaissance and targeting by units like "Anvar" in border regions of Sumy and Chernihiv, and tactical FPV drone strikes against UAF artillery and equipment, as demonstrated in Kherson and South-Donetsk directions, supported by ELINT. Expect continued FPV drone targeting of individual UAF personnel in border areas (e.g., Sumy direction), and FPV strikes in Belgorod Oblast. MoD Russia's "Feniks" video suggests continued tactical drone operations. WarGonzo maps will likely reflect continued localized changes on these fronts. RF will continue demining operations in areas like Kharkiv. Expect continued reconnaissance UAV activity in Mykolaiv Oblast, and now toward Kryvyi Rih. Rosgvardia will continue tactical pushes in Sumy Oblast. Tactical ground movements by RF APCs are expected. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle, moving along a road, with one vehicle appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) from the convoy, indicating ongoing tactical movement. New message from AV БогомаZ reports new "vile attacks" from Ukrainian Nazis, implying continued RF defensive operations in border regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Intensified Information Operations: RF will continue to heavily propagandize its claimed successes (ground gains, AD effectiveness, Kinzhal strikes, D-20 destruction, Mariupol port operations, UAF surrender in Popov Yar, capture of Varachino, Hrushevske, Novotoretske, high UAV interception rates over its own territory, ELINT successes, destruction of UK-trained UAF unit, FPV strike on UAF soldier, successful tactical drone operations, destruction of UAF UAV C2, Rosgvardia successes in Sumy, "Baba Yaga" drone destruction, Alexandrovgrad strike, RF tactical vehicle "falling out"), exploit internal Ukrainian issues (NABU scandal – now framed as losing Western support due to Trump, mobilization friction amplified by TCC incidents, POW narratives, and civilian testimonials from border regions and conflict zones like Donbass and Andriivka, and civilian casualties from UAF attacks in RF territory), and frame itself as a victim of "Ukrainian aggression" to manage domestic sentiment and influence international perceptions. Expect RF to leverage US statements on Iran and internal US political issues (Epstein case), and international disagreements on conflicts like Gaza to further its narrative of Western aggression and disunity. Expect an increase in normalization propaganda (e.g., cultural events, economic updates, social welfare proposals like military salary increases, airport normalization, internal crime reports, grain exports, religious traditions, addressing internal hacking issues, Slovakia gas deal, focus on "spiritual and moral culture" in schools, urban development in Moscow, death of Supreme Court Chairman, Moscow news on employment sectors and "brain drain", RF AI development, Winelab cyberattack recovery, funeral of Yuri Kara, Chechen festival, new Moskvich car sales, airport recreation zones, 4-day work week benefits, 4-day work week proven beneficial) for domestic consumption to counter war fatigue. The immediate use of a captured UAF soldier for propaganda indicates this will be a continued and adaptive tactic. TASS will continue to disseminate analyses from figures like Jeffrey Sachs to influence international discourse. RF will also continue to try and discredit Ukrainian leadership (e.g., Zelenskyy as dictator, Syrsky as "agent"). RF will continue using the Bloomberg article about Ukrainian corruption to undermine Western aid. RF will continue to leverage events like the death of Polish General Skrzypczak for cynical propaganda. RF MFA statements will continue to frame Western actions as hostile. FSB detention videos will be used to demonstrate counter-terrorism effectiveness. Raids on "Baza" media outlet and the arrest of its editor-in-chief will be used to demonstrate strict information control. RF will also project its ability to pursue alleged criminals internationally (Moldovan oligarch). TASS reports Peskov stated that the discussion of draft memorandums between Moscow and Kyiv will be the topic of negotiations in Istanbul, and the Kremlin expects the new round of direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations to take place this week, and Moscow and Kyiv need to work a lot before discussing prospects for a summit meeting. This indicates RF's control over the negotiation narrative. Alex Parker Returns' attempts to analyze White House political images and TASS promotion of Moskvich car sales are also part of this information campaign, aimed at projecting internal Russian normalcy and strength. TASS reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. New messages indicate immediate RF media response to Umierov leading negotiations, using derogatory language for Zelenskyy. New message from Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 indicates continued RF narrative exploitation of personal tragedies to question the conflict and its justification. New message from Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 promotes the "human shield" narrative against UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Negotiation as Information Warfare: RF will likely use the upcoming Istanbul negotiations primarily as an information operation to signal a willingness for dialogue while continuing kinetic operations, potentially aiming to portray Ukraine as unwilling or unreasonable if talks falter. TASS reports Peskov stated that the discussion of draft memorandums between Moscow and Kyiv will be the topic of negotiations in Istanbul, and the Kremlin expects the new round of direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations to take place this week, and Moscow and Kyiv need to work a lot before discussing prospects for a summit meeting. New messages from RF sources (Colonelcassad, Операция Z) confirm Zelenskyy's meeting with Umierov and Yermak before negotiations, framing it from an RF perspective. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Increased Counter-UAV Measures in RF Territory: RF will continue to attempt to intercept UAF drones over its territory, with reported success rates for smaller UAVs, as demonstrated by the recent repelling of attacks in Rostov and other areas, including Tula and Bryansk Oblasts. RF will also prioritize domestic UAV development (e.g., Rostov Oblast) to enhance its own capabilities and counter-capabilities, while continuing to rely on foreign components (e.g., from China). The drone attack on Samara Oblast will reinforce RF's focus on internal AD and drone development. RF will continue to highlight counter-drone successes (e.g., "Baba Yaga" destruction). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Continued Use of Diverse Artillery Systems: RF will likely continue to deploy and utilize a variety of artillery systems, including potentially newly sourced ones like the North Korean 107-mm MLRS "Type-75", to sustain fire support for ground operations and target UAF positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sustained Naval Logistics and Presence: RF will continue to use its naval assets for global logistics, including escorting cargo vessels, and maintaining a presence in strategic waterways to support its military and economic interests. Putin's toughened rules for foreign vessel access will impact commercial shipping. New message from "Два майора" indicates continued maritime operations near Crimean shores. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Security Operations: RF will maintain focus on internal security, including counter-intelligence (FSB reports, St. Petersburg detentions), anti-corruption efforts (e.g., Bryansk Vice-Governor searches – now confirmed detention and charges, Popov case, Matsotsky case), and migration control (Tyumen migrant detention). The focus on the death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be to demonstrate the legal system's stability. RF will also continue to suppress political opposition (Nadezhdin's staffer detention) and enforce control over occupied territories (Crimea monument desecration detentions). RF authorities will manage civilian incidents like the Novorossiysk gas explosion. RF MFA will continue to retaliate against EU actions. RF will continue to conduct raids on independent media, escalating enforcement as seen with the Baza editor-in-chief's arrest. RF will continue to pursue alleged criminals internationally (Moldovan oligarch). TASS reports 4 people died, including 2 children, in a traffic accident in Tarumovsky district, Dagestan. TASS reports a criminal case for "justifying terrorism" has been opened against Ural journalist Dmitry Fomintsev. TASS reports the State Duma urged against bulk buying "Miramistin" (a disinfectant) due to fear of deficit. Operatsiya Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports a criminal case for exceeding authority has been opened against police officers in Moscow who leaked information, and searches are ongoing at the office of a Telegram channel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Long-Term Military Modernization: Based on Budanov's report, RF will continue to invest significantly in rearmament and military modernization, impacting the conflict in the long-term. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5.2. Most dangerous enemy courses of action (MDCOA)

• Coordinated Multi-Front Offensive with Strategic Deep Strike (CATACLYSMIC): RF conducts a synchronized, large-scale ground offensive on multiple axes, most dangerously combining a major thrust into Sumy and/or Kharkiv Oblasts (committing operational reserves) with an exploitation of the claimed breakthrough in Malaya Tokmachka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). This offensive would be coordinated with a sustained, exceptionally high-volume multi-domain deep strike campaign designed to fully deplete UAF AD and interdict all major Western aid logistics corridors, aiming for a rapid collapse of UAF defensive lines on multiple, non-contiguous fronts. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Chemical/Biological Weapon Use (ESCALATORY, LOW PROBABILITY): Although low probability, the RF claim of Ukraine using toxic chemicals to the OPCW could be a flag for a false flag operation, where RF could use such weapons and blame Ukraine, leading to a massive escalation. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
• Targeted Assassination/Disruption of UAF Leadership (HYBRID): Exploiting internal security concerns (NABU scandal) or leveraging DRG capabilities, RF conducts a high-profile assassination or significant disruption operation against key UAF military or political leadership (e.g., General Shapovalov, President Zelenskyy, now specifically Syrsky based on new RF information ops) to sow chaos and cripple C2. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
• Targeted Strike on High-Value Military Airfields/Bases in Ukraine (ESCALATORY): Given the confirmed UAF deep strike on Millerovo and reported HIMARS strikes on RF AD assets, RF may retaliate with a concentrated, high-precision strike using Kinzhals and cruise missiles against a key UAF military airfield or command center in Ukraine, beyond simply a "defense industrial complex" target, aiming to significantly degrade UAF air or C2 capabilities. This MDCOA would be distinct from general deep strikes by focusing on a singular, high-impact military target. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Exploitation of Civilian Evacuation Issues: RF attempts to exploit any perceived UAF missteps in civilian evacuation, particularly in Zaporizhzhia, to create humanitarian crises or demoralize the population. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Direct Naval Interdiction of Maritime Aid/Trade: RF Black Sea Fleet directly interdicts or attacks commercial vessels in the Black Sea, escalating naval warfare and severely impacting Ukraine's maritime trade and aid routes. This would be a high-risk move with significant international repercussions but could be an MDCOA if RF seeks to completely choke off Ukrainian maritime access. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
• Major Cyberattack on Critical Ukrainian Infrastructure: RF conducts a large-scale, coordinated cyberattack targeting critical civilian infrastructure (e.g., energy grid, financial systems, transportation networks) to cause widespread societal disruption and panic, undermining the government's ability to function and eroding public morale. This would likely be coordinated with kinetic strikes. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

5.3. Timeline estimates and decision points

• Immediate (Next 24-48 hours):
  • Aerial Strikes: High probability of continued, albeit potentially smaller, RF missile and drone strikes (42 Shaheds launched overnight). UAF AD will remain heavily engaged. Expect sustained Shahed activity in Southern and Eastern Oblasts, particularly targeting Odesa and Mykolaiv regions. Expect aviation munitions threats to Donetsk (including Dobropillia, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk) and Sumy, including continued KAB strikes on urban centers. Ballistic missile threats will continue for exposed areas like Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk (Samarskyi district). Reconnaissance UAV activity in Mykolaiv is likely, and now towards Kryvyi Rih. Expect continued use of advanced loitering munitions/PGMs (e.g., "Harpies"). RF will continue to target UAF UAV control posts (e.g., Krasnoarmeysk direction, Chasiv Yar). RF will continue to attempt to shift blame for civilian casualties onto UAF AD (e.g., Odesa Shkolny airfield incident). Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lobkove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region and Sumy city. New message from Повітряні Сили ЗС України confirms KAB launches on Sumy Oblast, and UAV heading to Odesa and Kryvyi Rih, and reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy, Chernihiv, and Zaporizhzhia.
  • Ground Probes: RF will continue probing attacks and reconnaissance-in-force on all axes, especially Kharkiv (including Starytsia, and claimed Varachino), Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia (including Malaya Tokmachka, Alexandrovgrad, Kamyanske, Orikhiv). This is aimed at fixing UAF reserves, identifying weaknesses, and creating conditions for potential larger-scale offensives. Expect continued border operations by units like "Anvar" and tactical FPV drone strikes against UAF assets (e.g., artillery), possibly driven by ELINT. Expect continued FPV drone targeting of individual UAF personnel in border areas (e.g., Sumy direction), and FPV strikes in Belgorod Oblast. MoD Russia's "Feniks" video suggests continued tactical drone operations. WarGonzo maps will likely show continued tactical engagements. Expect continued aggressive RF DRG activity, particularly in areas like Pokrovsk and claimed Krasnoarmeysk infiltration. RF will continue demining and fortification efforts in contested areas. Continued engagements in Velyka Novosilka and Krasnolimanskoye directions. Rosgvardia will continue tactical pushes in Sumy Oblast. Tactical ground movements by RF APCs are expected. Alex Parker Returns publishes video showing a convoy of military vehicles, including a truck and a smaller armored vehicle, moving along a road, with one vehicle appearing to "fall out" (вывалился) from the convoy, indicating ongoing tactical movement. Liveuamap Source details widespread clashes across Eastern axes. TASS claims RF Armed Forces liberated Novotoretske in DNR. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports DeepState analysis that RF army occupied Hrushevske and advanced near Voskresenka, Orikhove, Mayak and Zatyhka (formerly Suvorove) in Donetsk Oblast. New message from AV БогомаZ reports new "vile attacks" from Ukrainian Nazis, indicating continued ground engagements in border areas.
  • Negotiations: The announced Istanbul negotiations on 23/24 July are a critical diplomatic event to monitor for any shifts in RF posture or demands. Decision points for UAF will revolve around the tenor and outcome of these talks. Zelenskyy's meeting notes for negotiation work indicate preparation. TASS reports Peskov stated that the discussion of draft memorandums between Moscow and Kyiv will be the topic of negotiations in Istanbul. TASS also reports the Kremlin expects the new round of direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations to take place this week. TASS reports Peskov stated that Moscow and Kyiv need to work a lot before discussing prospects for a summit meeting. New messages from Оперативний ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, and Операция Z confirm Rustem Umierov will lead the Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul negotiations.
  • Cyber Attacks: Continued RF cyber activity is likely given the neutralization of the NoName057(16) network, indicating continued intent to disrupt UAF infrastructure. RF will continue internal cyber security operations against perceived threats (e.g., Novosibirsk arrest, Winelab cyberattack recovery, Ural journalist "justifying terrorism" case).
  • Retaliatory Strikes: Increased probability of RF retaliatory deep strikes following the Millerovo airfield attack and reported HIMARS strikes on RF AD. New message from Alex Parker Returns highlights a claimed HIMARS strike on S-400 in Belgorod, which could prompt RF retaliation.
  • Information Operations: RF will continue to use POW statements and other narratives to try and undermine UAF morale. Expect increased normalization propaganda from RF state media and a continued focus on domestic social policy, including military salary increases and "spiritual and moral culture" in schools, urban development in Moscow, and criticism of EU "brain drain." Expect immediate and widespread dissemination of content related to TCC incidents and civilian testimonials from border regions and conflict zones (Andriivka, Donbass). Expect RF to continue highlighting its control and functionality of occupied infrastructure like Mariupol port. Expect RF to amplify cultural and religious narratives (funeral of Yuri Kara, Chechen festival, new Moskvich car sales, airport recreation zones, 4-day work week benefits). Expect RF to continue influencing international discourse via comments on US foreign policy (e.g., Jeffrey Sachs interview, Epstein case), and political deaths (Polish General Skrzypczak). Expect RF to continue pushing the narrative of high UAF attacks on RF civilian objects. Expect RF to leverage the Slovakia gas deal as a propaganda point. RF will continue to try and discredit Zelenskyy and Syrsky. RF milbloggers will continue to question the efficacy of Western AD. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed as a natural, smooth transition. RF internal security actions (Crimea monument desecration, Tyumen migrant detention, high-level bribery cases, FSB reports, detention of political opposition, Novorossiysk gas explosion, St. Petersburg dancing detainees, "Baza" raids, Moldovan oligarch arrest, Dagestan traffic accident, District Court ruling, State Duma warning on Miramistin, Police officers leaking info ) will be highlighted. New messages show RF immediate propaganda on Umierov's new negotiation role, continued exploitation of internal Russian tragedies (Novomikhailovka), "human shield" accusations against UAF, and normalization efforts via Moscow cultural events.
  • RF Counter-UAV: RF will continue to actively repel UAF drone attacks on its territory (e.g., Tula and Bryansk Oblasts) and will report successes for domestic consumption. The Samara Oblast drone attack will reinforce this focus. RF will highlight successful counter-drone operations (e.g., "Baba Yaga" destruction).
• Short Term (Next 3-7 days):
  • Offensive Escalation: If RF assesses UAF AD capabilities are sufficiently degraded or reserves are fixed, they may commit additional ground forces for a larger-scale offensive in Kharkiv/Sumy or attempt to exploit the claimed Malaya Tokmachka breakthrough more fully. The claimed advances in Hrushevske and Novotoretske will be consolidated.
  • Western Aid Impact: The rate of Western aid delivery, particularly AD munitions, will be critical. Decision points for international partners to accelerate deliveries will be influenced by the ongoing intensity of RF strikes. Netherlands' specific aid package for drones and F-16 maintenance will begin to show effect.
  • Impact of UK Sanctions: Monitor initial RF response and market adjustments to the new UK sanctions on "shadow fleet" tankers; assess immediate impact on oil exports. Monitor RF LNG export reductions.
  • RF Drone Development: Monitor initial developments related to Rostov Oblast's plans for UAV development and production, and the continued sourcing of components (e.g., from China).
  • RF Equipment Needs: Monitor the impact of milblogger appeals for equipment like thermal imagers on RF supply chains.
  • Internal RF Political Repercussions: Monitor the aftermath of the Supreme Court Chairman's death, including succession and any unexpected internal political shifts. Monitor developments in the Bryansk Vice-Governor case and high-level MoD corruption.
  • Internal Ukrainian Mobilization: Monitor public reception and effectiveness of convict mobilization and ongoing TCC operations. Monitor the political developments regarding NABU and SAP independence. New message indicates Rada's consideration of limiting NABU/SAP powers is an immediate concern.
• Medium Term (Next 1-2 weeks):
  • Sustainment of Operations: Both sides will face significant sustainment challenges, particularly for munitions and personnel. UAF's ability to rapidly scale domestic production (e.g., Bohdana-BG howitzers) and secure additional international funding will be critical. The Ukraine-Denmark AI drone interceptor development signifies a long-term strategic investment.
  • Information Environment Volatility: The information environment will remain highly contested, with both sides intensifying propaganda and counter-propaganda efforts.
  • RF Rearmament Progress: Initial indicators of RF's progress on its $1.1 trillion rearmament plan by 2036 will begin to emerge.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

• RF Northern Grouping Reserves (Priority 1): Detailed and verifiable intelligence on the composition, strength, and staging of RF operational reserves in Belgorod/Kursk Oblasts. Collection Requirement (CR): IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT assets focused on training areas, logistics nodes, and troop concentrations in RF border regions. Emphasis on identifying new unit deployments or activation.
• Verification of RF Breakthrough at Malaya Tokmachka (Priority 2): Definitive, real-time ground truth regarding the claimed RF tactical breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. CR: IMINT (high-resolution satellite imagery, commercial satellite intelligence), UAV ISR, forward deployed HUMINT for ground observation and contact reports. Specific focus on troop movements, defensive line integrity, and BDA of claimed objectives.
• BDA on Western Logistics and Kyiv (Priority 3): Comprehensive BDA of all kinetic impacts in Western Oblasts and Kyiv, specifically assessing damage to rail/road networks, storage facilities, and identified defense industry sites. CR: Post-strike IMINT (drone and satellite), HUMINT (EOD reports, local civilian networks), OSINT (social media, local news).
• RF AD/REB Effectiveness & Intentions (Priority 4): Assess the full extent of RF AD/REB capabilities to counter UAF drones, especially reconnaissance assets. Understand the strategic intent behind RF's continued high-volume deep strikes, including target prioritization and adaptation. CR: SIGINT on RF AD/REB emissions, COMINT for RF C2 communications, exploited UAF drone telemetry data, BDA of RF AD/REB systems by UAF strikes.
• Internal RF Military Morale (Priority 5): Collect more widespread intelligence on RF personnel morale beyond isolated incidents, particularly within units actively engaged in offensive operations. CR: HUMINT (POW interrogations, defectors), OSINT (milblogger discussions, soldier social media activity), COMINT (intercepted internal communications).
• Verification of RF DRG Activity in Pokrovsk (Priority 6): Confirm the extent and success of claimed RF DRG ambushes or infiltration in Pokrovsk, particularly given the new video. CR: HUMINT (local reports, captured personnel interrogations), IMINT (surveillance footage, post-incident analysis).
• Damage Assessment of Millerovo Airfield (Priority 7): Detailed BDA of damage to Millerovo military airfield (runways, aircraft, hangars, fuel depots). CR: IMINT (satellite, commercial satellite intelligence), HUMINT (local reporting, insider information).
• RF Response to Millerovo Attack (Priority 8): Monitor RF military and political responses to the Millerovo airfield attack, particularly any indications of escalation in retaliation. CR: OSINT (RF official statements, milbloggers), SIGINT (RF C2 communications).
• Verification of Russian drone capabilities (Priority 9): Identify specific types and capabilities of RF drones observed in the Colonelcassad video (e.g., "BABA-YAGA" details, "Kozak," "Paladin," "URAL-4320" targeting). CR: Exploited drone footage analysis, wreckage analysis, technical intelligence.
• Confirmation of UAF Robotic Platform Destruction (Priority 10): Verify the destruction of the UAF robotic platform claimed by Colonelcassad. CR: Post-engagement BDA, analysis of RF drone footage, UAF unit reports.
• Verification of RF "Harpy" Drone (Priority 11): Identify the characteristics, capabilities, and operational deployment of the "Harpy" drone referenced by Kotsnews. CR: Analysis of video footage, RF milblogger commentary, and technical intelligence on similar platforms.
• Monitoring of Southern UAV Activity (Priority 12): Track new Shahed UAV groups from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Pavlohrad and from the Black Sea towards Mykolaiv/Odesa Oblasts. Monitor RF reconnaissance UAV activity towards Kryvyi Rih. CR: Air Force updates, local reporting, AD engagement data, SIGINT on UAV control signals.
• Assessment of civilian presence in Zaporizhzhia combat zones (Priority 13): Verify RF claims regarding delayed UAF evacuation efforts and the risk to civilians in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. CR: HUMINT (local civilian reports), OSINT (local media, social media monitoring), UNHCR/aid organization reports.
• Odesa Damage Assessment (Priority 14): Conduct immediate BDA of civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa following the UAV attack, including the reported supermarket fire. CR: Local reporting, satellite imagery, public photographic/video evidence.
• Verification of North Korean MLRS Type-75 Deployment (Priority 15): Confirm the presence, quantity, and operational deployment of North Korean 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" systems within RF forces, particularly in frontline areas. CR: IMINT (satellite, tactical UAV imagery), HUMINT (POW interrogations, local sources), OSINT (RF milblogger content, identification of unique munition types).
• Monitoring of Aviation Munitions Threats to Donetsk/Sumy (Priority 16): Track specific types and frequency of aviation munitions (e.g., KABs, unguided bombs) being used against Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. CR: Air Force updates, local reporting, BDA, SIGINT on RF aviation activity.
• RF POW Exploitation (Priority 17): Monitor all RF official and milblogger channels for further releases of POW interrogations or statements. Analyze content for new intelligence regarding UAF unit dispositions, morale, or C2 issues. CR: OSINT (TASS, RF milbloggers), HUMINT (cross-reference with POW interrogations).
• RF Border Unit Activities (Priority 18): Increased focus on drone reconnaissance and ground activities by RF units operating in the Sumy and Chernihiv border regions (e.g., "Anvar" unit), specifically their targeting priorities (UAF positions, communication infrastructure, civilian areas). CR: IMINT (UAV imagery, satellite), SIGINT (RF unit communications), HUMINT (local reports, cross-border intelligence).
• Iran's Stance on US Negotiations (Priority 19): Monitor the implications of Iran's stated willingness for indirect negotiations with the US on a new nuclear deal. CR: OSINT (international media, diplomatic statements), HUMINT (diplomatic intelligence).
• Chernihiv TCC Incident Verification (Priority 20): Investigate the violent TCC detention incident in Chernihiv reported by Colonelcassad, verify details, and assess the broader impact on public sentiment and recruitment. CR: HUMINT (local sources), OSINT (local social media and news, cross-reference with UAF official statements).
• Verification of D-20 Howitzer Destruction (Priority 21): Verify the RF claim of destroying a UAF D-20 howitzer in Kherson Oblast via FPV drone. CR: UAF unit reports, BDA, IMINT (UAV imagery analysis from both sides).
• RF Civilian Testimonial Verification (Priority 22): Investigate and verify the claims made by RF citizen Zorin Vladimir Nikolaevich regarding UAF shelling in Rubanyshchina, Kursk Oblast, and the claims in the Mash on Donbass video and from Andriivka. CR: HUMINT (local sources on the Ukrainian side of the border), IMINT (satellite imagery for damage assessment), OSINT (cross-reference with local Ukrainian news/reports regarding shelling in that area).
• German Preparedness Narrative (Priority 23): Monitor the origin and propagation of the RBC-Ukraine photo messages regarding German preparedness for a "Putin attack" involving women and pensioners. Assess whether this is an isolated piece of propaganda or part of a wider campaign. CR: OSINT (media analysis, social media tracking across various languages), HUMINT (diplomatic and public sentiment monitoring in Germany).
• Verification of RF Advance near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast (Priority 24): Confirm the veracity and extent of RF ground advances claimed by TASS near Starytsia. CR: IMINT (high-resolution satellite imagery, UAV ISR), HUMINT (local ground reports, UAF unit reports).
• Mariupol Port Activity Assessment (Priority 25): Monitor the volume and nature of cargo traffic through Mariupol port. CR: IMINT (satellite imagery of port activity, vessel tracking), OSINT (local shipping news, commercial port data).
• Impact of UK Sanctions on RF Maritime Logistics (Priority 26): Assess the immediate and projected impact of new UK sanctions on RF "shadow fleet" tankers on RF oil exports and overall maritime logistics. CR: OSINT (shipping intelligence reports, market analysis, news on tanker movements), HUMINT (industry contacts).
• RF Naval Activity in Baltic/North Sea/Atlantic (Priority 27): Monitor RF naval deployments and transit activities in international waters for frequency, vessel types, and cargo. CR: IMINT (satellite imagery, maritime surveillance), OSINT (naval tracking data, shipping news).
• Verification of UAF Surrender in Popov Yar (Priority 28): Obtain independent verification of the RF claim of UAF servicemen surrendering in Popov Yar. CR: HUMINT (local reports, POW interrogations if available), IMINT (satellite imagery of the area, UAV footage if available from UAF sources).
• Damage Assessment in Vasylivskyi District, Zaporizhzhia (Priority 29): Conduct detailed BDA of civilian damage and assess the nature of the "enemy attack" in Vasylivskyi District. CR: Local reporting, UAF unit reports, satellite imagery.
• Verification of Ukrainian SPA Destruction (South-Donetsk) (Priority 30): Verify the RF claim of destroying a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit in South-Donetsk direction. CR: UAF unit reports, BDA, analysis of RF drone footage.
• Kherson Civilian Casualty Assessment (Priority 31): Assess the nature and extent of civilian injuries in Kherson. CR: Local reporting, medical reports.
• RF Cyber Activity (Novosibirsk) (Priority 32): Investigate the details of the hacking incident in Novosibirsk and any potential links to state-sponsored activity or broader cyber campaigns. CR: OSINT (cybersecurity reports, dark web monitoring), HUMINT (if sources available).
• RF Milblogger Commentary on Drones (Priority 33): Monitor discussions and appeals related to drone technology and procurement from influential RF milbloggers (e.g., "Два майора", "Операция Z") for insights into RF operational priorities and material needs. CR: OSINT (milblogger channels, forums).
• RF Narrative on Civilian Object Strikes (Priority 34): Monitor the propagation and impact of Miroshnik's claim about daily UAF strikes on RF civilian objects, and assess for any escalatory rhetoric or justification for further RF actions. CR: OSINT (RF state media, milbloggers, public opinion monitoring).
• Verification of RF Drone Interception of Other Drones (Priority 35): Investigate "Два майора" highly unusual claim of a Russian drone intercepting an enemy UAV carrying interception drones. CR: Detailed analysis of the provided video for authenticity and technical feasibility, cross-referencing with any known capabilities, and seeking independent technical verification. (HIGH priority for this specific claim due to its novel nature and potential implications).
• Assessment of RF Military Salary Increase (Priority 36): Monitor RF public and military sentiment regarding the proposed salary increase for military personnel. Assess potential impact on recruitment, retention, and morale. CR: OSINT (RF social media, military forums), HUMINT (if available).
• Kramatorsk KAB Strike BDA (Priority 37): Conduct immediate and detailed BDA of the Kramator KAB strike, assessing damage to the residential building and surrounding area, and verifying the number of casualties. CR: Local reporting, satellite imagery, public photographic/video evidence, UAF emergency services reports.
• Samara Oblast Drone Attack Verification (Priority 38): Verify the extent of the drone attack on Samara Oblast, RF, and assess any damage or operational impact. CR: IMINT (satellite imagery), OSINT (local RF news, social media), HUMINT (if available).
• Verification of UK-trained UAF Unit Destruction (Priority 39): Independently verify the RF claim of a UK-trained UAF unit being destroyed in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. CR: UAF unit reports, HUMINT (POW interrogations, if available), IMINT (battlefield analysis).
• Slovakia Gas Deal Implications (Priority 40): Monitor the specific details and long-term implications of Slovakia's planned increased reliance on Russian gas. CR: OSINT (economic news, diplomatic reports, energy market analysis).
• RF FPV Strike on UAF Soldier (Sumy Direction) (Priority 41): Analyze the FPV drone footage provided by "Два майора" for precise location, UAF soldier's status, and broader implications for RF tactical FPV capabilities in the Sumy direction. CR: Analysis of video, UAF unit reports from the area, HUMINT.
• Verification of Varachino Liberation (Priority 42): Independently verify the RF claim of liberating Varachino in Sumy Oblast, and the claimed successes of the 83rd Air Assault Brigade in the area, and Rosgvardia's claimed successes. CR: IMINT (satellite imagery, UAV reconnaissance), HUMINT (local reports, UAF unit reports from the area).
• RF Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Searches (Priority 43): Monitor developments regarding the searches at the Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor's home. CR: OSINT (RF news, official statements), HUMINT (if available). New message indicates detention for abuse of power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Demining and Fortification Efforts (Priority 44): Monitor the scale and location of RF demining operations in Kharkiv Oblast and fortification construction in Luhansk Oblast. CR: IMINT (UAV/satellite), HUMINT (local reports, UAF observations).
• RF UAV Component Sourcing (Priority 45): Investigate the extent of RF reliance on Chinese components for new UAVs and identify potential vulnerabilities for interdiction. CR: OSINT (technical analyses, trade data), SIGINT (on supply chains), HUMINT (if available).
• RF Supreme Court Chairman Death (Priority 46): Monitor RF state media and internal discussions regarding the death of Irina Podnosova for any unexpected implications for RF's internal stability or legal system. CR: OSINT (RF news, social media, political commentary). New message confirms Yuri Ivanenko as acting chairman. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Dobropillia KAB/Drone Attack BDA (Priority 47): Conduct detailed BDA of civilian infrastructure damage in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, following RF drone and KAB attacks. CR: Local reporting, satellite imagery, public photographic/video evidence.
• HIMARS Strike on RF AD in Belgorod (Priority 48): Obtain independent verification and BDA of the claimed HIMARS strike on RF S-300 battery and radars in Belgorod Oblast. CR: IMINT (high-resolution satellite imagery), SIGINT (RF AD emissions analysis), HUMINT (local reports, UAF BDA). New message from Alex Parker Returns claims UAF video of HIMARS strike on S-400 in Belgorod, providing further OSINT for analysis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Vasylkiv Shooting Incident (Priority 49): Monitor for any further information regarding the shooting incident in Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast, to determine if it has any broader security implications beyond a civilian crime. CR: OSINT (local news, police reports).
• Velyka Novosilka/Shevchenko Activity (Priority 50): Monitor for continued reports of activity in the Velyka Novosilka - Shevchenko area. CR: OSINT (milblogger reports, local news), IMINT (UAV/satellite).
• RF High-Level Corruption Cases (Priority 51): Monitor the development of the criminal cases against former Deputy Minister of Defense Pavel Popov and billionaire Matsotsky for insights into internal RF power dynamics and resource allocation. CR: OSINT (RF state media, legal reporting), HUMINT (if available). New message from Офіс Генерального прокурора on illegal coal mining in occupied Donetsk indicates another avenue for corruption investigations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Political Opposition Suppression (Priority 52): Monitor the detention of Dmitry Kisiev and any subsequent actions against opposition figures to understand the extent of internal political control. CR: OSINT (independent media, human rights groups).
• UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky's Parents Narrative (Priority 53): Monitor the propagation of the RF narrative regarding Syrsky's parents in Moscow. Assess its impact on UAF morale and any necessary counter-information measures. CR: OSINT (RF milbloggers, UAF internal discussions), HUMINT (if available).
• UAF UAV Command Post Destruction Verification (Priority 54): Verify the RF claim of destroying a UAF UAV command post on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar and in Krasnoarmeysk direction. CR: UAF unit reports, BDA, IMINT (UAV imagery analysis from both sides).
• Krasnolimanskoye Direction Activity (Priority 55): Monitor for continued RF military activity and aid requirements in the Krasnolimanskoye direction. CR: OSINT (milbloggers), HUMINT.
• Mykolaiv Oblast Reconnaissance UAV (Priority 56): Continue monitoring for RF reconnaissance UAV activity in Mykolaiv Oblast and assess its specific intent (e.g., target acquisition for kinetic strikes, battlefield assessment). CR: Air Force reports, AD engagement data, SIGINT on UAV control signals.
• Donbass Civilian Testimonial (Priority 57): Assess the source and broader context of the Mash on Donbass video containing a civilian testimonial, and analyze how it is being leveraged in RF information operations. CR: OSINT (media analysis, social media tracking).
• Andriivka Civilian Testimonial (Priority 58): Assess the source and broader context of the civilian testimonial from Andriivka and analyze how it is being leveraged in RF information operations. CR: OSINT (media analysis, social media tracking).
• Novorossiysk Gas Explosion (Priority 59): Monitor the aftermath of the gas explosion in Novorossiysk for any wider implications for internal security or infrastructure. CR: OSINT (local news, official reports).
• St. Petersburg Detentions (Priority 60): Monitor the detention of foreign nationals for dancing near FSB building for any broader implications regarding internal security measures or public control. CR: OSINT (local news, human rights reports).
• Foreign Vessel Access Rules (Priority 61): Assess the practical impact of Putin's toughened rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports on maritime trade and potential for economic leverage. CR: OSINT (shipping industry reports, economic analysis).
• Ukraine Auto Market Trends (Priority 62): Monitor the trend of increased demand for auto products in Ukraine for insights into civilian economic activity and potential resilience despite conflict. CR: OSINT (economic reports, market analysis).
• US Congress Epstein Case (Priority 63): Monitor RF state media and milblogger amplification of the US Congress Epstein case for insights into RF information warfare targeting US political stability. CR: OSINT (RF media analysis).
• RF AI Development (Priority 64): Monitor RF announcements and developments related to AI integration in civilian applications for potential dual-use implications. CR: OSINT (RF tech news, official statements).
• RF Education Policy ("Spiritual-Moral Culture") (Priority 65): Monitor the implementation and public reception of the "Spiritual-Moral Culture of Russia" subject in schools for insights into RF social engineering and internal cohesion efforts. CR: OSINT (RF education news, social media).
• Polish General's Death (Priority 66): Monitor RF milblogger and state media reaction to the death of Polish General Skrzypczak for insights into RF psychological operations and narrative control. CR: OSINT (RF milbloggers, state media).
• RF MFA Statements (Priority 67): Monitor RF MFA statements for diplomatic signaling, particularly regarding expansion of banned EU officials and characterization of the conflict. CR: OSINT (RF MFA official channels, state media).
• FSB Detentions of Ukrainian Agents (Priority 68): Monitor subsequent RF reporting on FSB detentions of alleged Ukrainian agents, particularly any further confessions or details regarding planned attacks on railway or military infrastructure. CR: OSINT (RF state media, milbloggers).
• Russian Media Raids ("Baza") (Priority 69): Monitor the aftermath of the raids on "Baza" publication and editor-in-chief's apartment for insights into RF internal media suppression and freedom of speech. CR: OSINT (independent Russian media, human rights groups). New message from Два майора reports searches at Baza Telegram channel office. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Odesa Shkolny Airfield Incident (Priority 70): Investigate the RF milblogger claim that UAF AD caused civilian damage during the Shkolny airfield attack in Odesa. Conduct BDA to confirm impact locations and assess damage causation. CR: UAF BDA, IMINT (satellite imagery, local photo/video analysis), HUMINT (local reports).
• RF Military Spending Plan (Priority 71): Obtain full details and implications of Russia's reported plan to spend $1.1 trillion USD on rearmament by 2036. CR: OSINT (financial reports, military analysis), HUMINT (if available).
• Moldovan Oligarch Arrest (Priority 72): Monitor the extradition process and any implications of the arrest of Moldovan oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc in Greece, particularly if RF attempts to claim involvement or leverage the situation. CR: OSINT (international news, Moldovan/Greek official statements).
• RF Cyberattack Recovery (Winelab) (Priority 73): Monitor the full recovery of Winelab stores from the cyberattack and identify any specific methods used for recovery that could be indicative of broader RF cybersecurity strategies. CR: OSINT (cybersecurity reports, company statements).
• Krasnoarmeysk Infiltration (Priority 74): Verify the claims of Russian reconnaissance entering Krasnoarmeysk and the high activity of special groups in the south of the settlement. CR: IMINT (UAV/satellite), HUMINT (local reports, UAF unit reports).
• Alexandrovgrad Drone Strike BDA (Priority 75): Conduct BDA of the claimed destruction of UAF armored vehicles and personnel by RF drones in Alexandrovgrad. CR: UAF unit reports, IMINT (UAV imagery analysis from both sides).
• Krasny Liman - Zelyonaya Dolina Activity (Priority 76): Monitor for further details and implications of activity in the Krasny Liman - Zelyonaya Dolina area. CR: OSINT (milbloggers, local news), IMINT.
• Impact of NABU/SAP Legislation (Priority 77): Monitor the progress of legislation regarding the independence of NABU and SAP in the Ukrainian parliament. Assess the potential impact of these changes on anti-corruption efforts and international trust. CR: OSINT (Ukrainian political news, parliamentary proceedings), HUMINT (diplomatic sources, civil society contacts). New messages from Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна highlight this immediate legislative threat.
• RF Maritime Operations near Crimea (Priority 78): Monitor "Два майора" video showing military-style inflatable boat with personnel near Crimean shores for nature of operations (patrol, special forces, reconnaissance, training). CR: IMINT, HUMINT.
• Novomikhailovka Engagement Assessment (Priority 79): Monitor for further details regarding the storming of Novomikhailovka and assess the scale and outcome of engagements in this area. CR: UAF unit reports, BDA, OSINT (milblogger reports).
• RF Birth Control Demand (Priority 80): Assess the reported increase in demand for contraceptives in Russia for its societal implications, and how it is being used in RF information operations. CR: OSINT (social media, domestic news, demographic reports).
• Verification of Hrushevske and Novotoretske Capture (Priority 81): Independently verify the claims of RF forces occupying Hrushevske and liberating Novotoretske in Donetsk Oblast. CR: IMINT (satellite, UAV), HUMINT (local reports, UAF unit reports), OSINT (cross-reference with Ukrainian sources).
• RF Military Vehicle "Falling Out" (Priority 82): Investigate the video from Alex Parker Returns showing an RF military vehicle appearing to "fall out" of a convoy for specific cause (mechanical failure, combat damage, personnel error) and implications for RF tactical movement. CR: Detailed video analysis, cross-reference with UAF reports in the area, HUMINT if available.
• Dagestan Road Accident (Priority 83): While a civilian incident, assess if the Dagestan traffic accident has any wider social or logistical implications, particularly given the large number of casualties. CR: OSINT (local news, official reports).
• RF Journalist "Terrorism Justification" Case (Priority 84): Monitor the criminal case against journalist Dmitry Fomintsev for "justifying terrorism" for its implications on RF's media suppression and internal control. CR: OSINT (independent Russian media, legal reporting).
• Gazprom/Wintershall North Sea Share (Priority 85): Assess the implications of the District Court of The Hague lifting the arrest from Gazprom's share in the joint venture for RF's energy sector and ability to circumvent sanctions. CR: OSINT (economic news, legal analysis).
• RF State Duma "Miramistin" Warning (Priority 86): Monitor public reaction and any real-world implications of the State Duma's warning against bulk buying "Miramistin." CR: OSINT (RF social media, local news).
• RF Police Information Leak (Priority 87): Monitor the criminal case against police officers in Moscow for leaking information and the ongoing searches at the Telegram channel's office for insights into RF's internal security and information control. CR: OSINT (RF news, legal reporting).
• RF Civilian Car Sales (Moskvich-8) (Priority 88): Monitor public reception and sales trends of the new Moskvich-8 car as an indicator of RF's domestic industrial capacity and economic stability. CR: OSINT (RF automotive news, market analysis).
• RF Airport Recreation Zones (Sheremetyevo) (Priority 89): Monitor the implementation and effectiveness of recreation zones at Sheremetyevo airport for their impact on passenger morale and RF's ability to manage civilian disruptions. CR: OSINT (passenger reviews, airport reports).
• RF Four-Day Work Week (Priority 90): Monitor discussions and potential implementation of a four-day work week in Russia for its economic and social implications, particularly on productivity and public welfare. CR: OSINT (RF labor news, economic analysis).

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize ISR on Critical Ground Axes and RF Airfields/Drone Production:
   • Immediately re-task all available IMINT and SIGINT assets to monitor RF forces in Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts for signs of massing and offensive preparations, especially given claims of a new Kharkiv front and advances near Starytsia and Varachino, and Rosgvardia claimed successes in Sumy Oblast.
   • Direct all tactical UAV assets and ground reconnaissance elements to the Malaya Tokmachka sector in Zaporizhzhia and the Popov Yar, Hrushevske, and Novotoretske areas in Donetsk to confirm or deny the claimed RF breakthroughs/surrenders and assess the integrity of UAF defensive lines. Allocate additional ISR to Velyka Novosilka, Krasny Liman, and Krasnolimanskoye directions.
   • Allocate additional ISR to Pokrovsk and Krasnoarmeysk directions to verify claimed RF DRG activity, reconnaissance infiltration, and UAF counter-operations, given new video evidence.
   • Conduct immediate IMINT and OSINT on Millerovo military airfield to assess battle damage and operational impact, following up on the latest RF report of repelled attacks in the area. Monitor any new RF facilities related to UAV development in Rostov Oblast and potential drone production in Samara Oblast, including their component supply chains (e.g., from China).
   • Increase ISR on Sumy and Chernihiv border regions, with specific attention to RF drone reconnaissance flights and ground activity by units like "Anvar," to identify potential infiltration or shaping operations. Monitor reconnaissance UAV activity in Mykolaiv Oblast and now towards Kryvyi Rih.
   • Verify destruction of UAF D-20 howitzer in Kherson and the claimed self-propelled artillery unit in South-Donetsk and assess the broader impact of RF FPV drone capabilities against UAF artillery. Analyze the FPV drone footage of the UAF soldier in Sumy direction for tactical implications. Investigate the FPV drone attack in Belgorod. Conduct BDA of claimed destruction of UAF armored vehicles and personnel in Alexandrovgrad. Analyze the video of the RF military vehicle "falling out" of convoy for implications on tactical movement.
   • Monitor Mariupol port activity to understand its role in RF logistics and economic exploitation.
   • Enhance maritime surveillance of RF naval activities in international waters, particularly those involving cargo vessels. Assess the impact of Putin's new rules for foreign vessel access. Monitor RF naval operations near Crimean shores.
   • Conduct BDA in Vasylivskyi District, Zaporizhzhia, and investigate the nature of the attack causing civilian casualties.
   • Verify civilian casualties in Kherson.
   • Conduct immediate and thorough BDA of the KAB strike in Kramatorsk, Sumy, and Dobropillia, and assess implications for RF targeting patterns. Specifically investigate the Sloviansk "Geranium" (Shahed) strike BDA.
   • Verify RF claim of destruction of a UK-trained UAF unit in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
   • Monitor RF demining efforts in Kharkiv Oblast and fortification construction in Luhansk Oblast to understand current and future RF operational objectives.
   • Obtain independent verification and BDA of the claimed HIMARS strike on RF S-300 battery and radars in Belgorod Oblast.
   • Verify RF claim of destruction of a UAF UAV command post on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar and in Krasnoarmeysk direction.
   • Identify and analyze "Harpy" drone capabilities and deployment patterns.
   • Verify and analyze RF claims of destroying "Baba Yaga" drones, to understand RF counter-drone tactics.
   • Monitor for any further information regarding the shooting incident in Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast, to determine if it has any broader security implications.
   • Monitor for continued activity in Velyka Novosilka - Shevchenko.
   • Monitor for further details regarding the storming of Novomikhailovka and assess the scale and outcome of engagements in this area.
2. Expedite AD Munitions & Capabilities:
   • Urge international partners to immediately accelerate deliveries of all committed AD interceptors, with specific emphasis on systems capable of countering Kinzhal and other ballistic threats. Leverage the critical $6 billion funding gap in discussions.
   • Prioritize deployment of newly committed Patriot systems, including those contributed by the Netherlands, to protect key logistics hubs in Western Ukraine and high-value targets in Kyiv.
   • Implement mobile AD and REB solutions for frontline areas and vulnerable logistics routes to mitigate the increased Shahed and tactical aviation threat. Expedite development of AI-powered drone interceptors.
   • Enhance AD coverage and readiness in Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts given new Shahed threats and confirmed damage and casualties in Odesa.
   • Reinforce AD capabilities in Sumy Oblast against KAB threats, as demonstrated by recent strikes.
   • Leverage the deployment of domestically produced Bohdana-BG howitzers for counter-battery fire against RF aviation assets and C2 nodes involved in KAB strikes.
   • Accelerate F-16 training and integration, leveraging the new project with the Air Force, to enhance air defense and offensive capabilities. Ensure rapid and efficient use of new mobile complexes for F-16 maintenance.
3. Harden and Disperse Critical Assets:
   • Review and update plans for the rapid dispersal and hardening of mobile AD systems, C2 nodes, and critical logistics assets, particularly in Kyiv and Western Ukraine, in anticipation of continued precision strikes.
   • Enhance physical security and deception measures around known military-industrial complex sites (especially those involved in drone production), military airfields, and key civilian infrastructure to mitigate the risk of targeted Kinzhal or cruise missile strikes.
   • Increase hardening and readiness of civilian infrastructure in Eastern oblasts (e.g., Kramatorsk, Dobropillia, Sloviansk, Hrushevske, Novotoretske) against continued KAB and artillery strikes.
   • Review critical infrastructure for potential cyber vulnerabilities, especially in light of the Winelab cyberattack in RF.
4. Strengthen Internal Security & Public Trust:
   • Conduct a transparent internal investigation into the NABU scandal to reassure international partners and Ukrainian public about commitment to rule of law. Actively refute RF disinformation about NABU losing Western support, and RF claims about UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky. Address the new facts of information leakage from NABU immediately and transparently, and actively counter legislative efforts that could undermine NABU/SAP independence.
   • Develop robust counter-propaganda campaigns to address RF narratives of Ukrainian disunity and weakness, particularly regarding mobilization efforts (addressing the Chernihiv TCC incident directly and transparently), POW narratives (e.g., refuting claims of abusive commanders, highlighting prisoner treatment discrepancies, addressing the death of Oleksandr Markov), civilian testimonials from border regions and conflict zones (including Andriivka, Donbass), and the narrative about "Latin American mercenaries." This should include direct messaging on successful RF hacker network neutralization and highlight strong UAF morale. Leverage UAF PSYOPS capabilities to target RF military morale.
   • Provide clear and consistent public information on the aftermath of RF strikes, including civilian casualties and damage, to counter RF disinformation and maintain public morale. Specifically, highlight the targeting of civilians in Kramatorsk, Sumy, and Dobropillia, and counter RF narratives blaming UAF AD for civilian damage in Odesa.
   • Address civilian evacuation concerns in Zaporizhzhia Oblast with timely and transparent information and measures.
   • Expedite BDA and recovery efforts in Odesa, Sumy, and Kramatorsk and provide public updates to maintain morale and counter RF narratives, emphasizing the targeting of civilian infrastructure.
   • Monitor and, if appropriate, counter new pro-Ukrainian narratives, such as the German preparedness message, ensuring they align with strategic communication objectives without inadvertently creating undue alarm among the populace.
   • Emphasize stability and control in key cities like Kryvyi Rih through consistent public messaging.
   • Continue and publicize anti-corruption efforts within Ukrainian government and state enterprises, including the one in Poltava. Publicize the investigation into illegal coal mining in occupied Donetsk.
   • Ensure rapid and transparent response to internal security incidents, such as the shooting in Vasylkiv, to maintain public confidence.
   • Monitor the internal security situation in Kyiv Oblast.
   • Emphasize military personnel welfare through publicizing pension information.
   • Monitor currency exchange rate fluctuations and their potential impact on public confidence.
   • Address concerns regarding the economic situation, as highlighted by Svrydenko's statements on export.
5. Leverage Diplomatic Avenues:
   • Utilize the upcoming Istanbul negotiations to clearly articulate Ukraine's defensive posture and demand a cessation of hostilities and withdrawal of forces, while simultaneously pushing for prisoner exchanges and humanitarian corridors. Ensure clear and consistent messaging around Rustem Umierov leading the delegation.
   • Continue active diplomatic engagements to secure long-term military and financial support, emphasizing the critical role of sustained aid in countering RF's multi-domain aggression. Ramstein meeting outcomes should be immediately communicated and followed up.
   • Inform international partners about the confirmed use of North Korean MLRS and advocate for stronger international sanctions and controls on DPRK military exports.
   • Monitor and assess Iran's evolving diplomatic posture, particularly regarding US negotiations, for any potential shifts in broader geopolitical alignments that could impact the conflict.
   • Be prepared to counter RF narratives that leverage international disagreements (e.g., Gaza ceasefire statements) to portray global instability or justify their own actions.
   • Emphasize and coordinate with partners on the impact of sanctions on RF's economic and military capabilities, particularly highlighting the effect of new sanctions on RF's "shadow fleet" and LNG exports.
   • Engage with international partners, particularly the EU, regarding Slovakia's increased reliance on Russian gas, assessing the implications for broader European energy security and unity against RF.
   • Actively counter RF's attempts to undermine international support for Ukraine by amplifying figures like Jeffrey Sachs or the Bloomberg article on corruption, by providing accurate information and reaffirming shared values and strategic goals.
   • Use the GUR report on Chinese components in RF UAVs to press international partners for stricter export controls on dual-use technologies to Russia.
   • Engage with the Holy See to understand the implications of proposed dialogue with the Russian Orthodox Church on broader diplomatic efforts.
   • Be prepared to counter RF MFA statements on expanded EU official bans and their broader narrative of Western aggression.
   • Utilize FSB detentions of alleged Ukrainian agents to highlight RF's internal repression and fabricated charges against Ukrainian citizens.
   • Highlight raids on independent Russian media as further evidence of RF's authoritarian nature and suppressive information control.
   • Monitor the arrest of Moldovan oligarch Plahotniuc for any RF attempts to leverage the situation diplomatically or for propaganda.
   • Leverage the death of Oleksandr Markov (civilian prisoner) to emphasize the human cost of conflict and push for international oversight of POW treatment.
   • Monitor Polish gas reserves data for its implications on European energy security, and its impact on RF energy diplomacy.