Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 220811Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats have been lifted. Localized Shahed UAV threats persist for Lviv Oblast, Southern Ukraine, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi districts, also Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, heading NW), and Kharkiv Oblast. Confirmed civilian casualties: Ivano-Frankivsk (4), Kyiv (9 injured, 1 fatality), Chernivtsi (4), Zaporizhzhia (2), Dnipropetrovsk (2), Sloviansk (4), Kherson (7 injured), and Kramatorsk (1 fatality, 7 injured). Total confirmed fatalities are 14, with multiple injuries. Rescue and emergency services are actively engaged across multiple oblasts, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Poltava, and Kherson. Confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa due to RF UAV attack, including administrative building, vehicles, and windows blown out in residential buildings. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Northern Ukraine (Kyiv Oblast): Continued Air Defense (AD) engagement against Shahed UAVs over Kyiv. Kinetic impacts on residential buildings in the Shevchenkivskyi district and "Lvivskyi Kvartal" residential complex, causing structural damage and fires. A commercial building and Lukyanivska metro station entrance also sustained damage. One fatality and nine injuries reported in Kyiv. Firefighters and emergency services are actively engaged; kindergarten fire confirmed. Visuals confirm extensive damage to kiosks and commercial facades. Lukyanivska metro station has fully restored operations. OBA reports consequences in two Kyiv Oblast districts. PS ZSU spokesman Ihnat reports over fifteen direct hits on various objects in Kyiv overnight. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, with video showing multiple explosions and fires in an urban area at night, and claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast): RBC-Ukraine reports an unknown individual engaged in a shooting incident in Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast. This is a localized internal security incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Eastern Ukraine: Initial cruise missile group detected over Kharkiv Oblast, moving towards Poltava Oblast. Kharkiv's Kyivskyi district hit by 12 UAV strikes overnight. RF milblogger "Воин DV" claims bomber strikes on UAF forward positions in Yanvarskyi supporting 36th Army advance. New group of RF UAVs reported from Luhansk Oblast moving towards Kharkiv Oblast. Kharkiv Oblast governor, Oleg Sinegubov, confirms strikes on Kharkiv city and 10 settlements. DeepState reports RF advances in Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, and near three other villages in Donetsk Oblast. MoD Russia provides video claiming liberation of Popov Yar. RF milbloggers claim a new RF front opened in Kharkiv Oblast, aiming to stretch UAF reserves. Russian military operations confirmed near Belaya Gora in Donetsk region, with claims of capturing foreign weapons and its significance for logistics to Kostiantynivka. Colonelcassad shares map showing continued positional changes on the front line. UAF National Guard "Khartia" brigade drone operators claimed destruction of nearly a platoon of Russian occupiers in Kharkiv Oblast. A tractor driver was blown up by a mine in Balakliia community, Kharkiv Oblast. At least 54 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast affected by enemy strikes over the past week. STERNENKO claims Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment holding back Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast. Liveuamap Source reports recent clashes at Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Huliaipole, and Kherson directions. Ukrainian forces repelled 23 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. FPV drone strike on Russian UAZ-452 ('Bukhanka') vehicle confirmed. Perovske, Zolochiv community, Kharkiv Oblast, shelled. DeepState reports liquidation of RF sabotage groups in Pokrovsk. RF milbloggers claim RF DRG activity in Pokrovsk, with video suggesting an ambush on a UAF vehicle. Threat of aviation munitions for Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Kharkiv Oblast): TASS reports RF forces advanced near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast, dislodging UAF units from several positions. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • New Event (Popov Yar, Donetsk Oblast): TASS reports a group of Ukrainian servicemen surrendered in Popov Yar, DNR. This claim, if verified, indicates localized UAF tactical setbacks. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • New Event (South-Donetsk Direction): Colonelcassad publishes video claiming successful destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit by 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, "Vostok" Grouping, in South-Donetsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast): ASTRA, RBC-Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 report a direct RF KAB strike on a residential building in Kramatorsk, resulting in the confirmed death of a 10-year-old child and 7 injured. Video and photo evidence confirms a multi-story residential building on fire and damaged, with emergency services responding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Update (Donetsk Oblast): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade drone operators created a "kill zone" in Donetsk Oblast on a small section of highway, destroying an enemy quad bike with occupant, burning a "Bukhanka" vehicle, destroying a motorcyclist, finishing off a second with a rifle, and hitting another Russian soldier with FPV drones. This confirms localized UAF FPV drone effectiveness and active engagements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast): RBC-Ukraine provides photo message and video on RF drone and KAB attacks on Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast. This highlights continued RF kinetic impacts on civilian infrastructure in Eastern Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Belgorod Oblast): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video claiming HIMARS strikes on an RF S-300 air defense battery, a "Nebo-M" radar, and a 5H66M "Big Bird" radar in Belgorod Oblast. This, if verified, is a significant UAF success against RF air defense assets. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • New Event (Velyka Novosilka - Shevchenko): "Сливочный каприз" publishes photo messages with the caption "22.07.25 Velyka Novosilka - Shevchenko," likely indicating continued engagements or observations in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Krasnolimanskoye Direction): "Два майора" publishes a video showing five individuals in military attire, armed, and identified as a unit from the Krasnolimanskoye direction, thanking for humanitarian aid including drones and generators. This indicates continued RF presence and operations in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Update (Chasiv Yar): Colonelcassad provides video footage claiming the destruction of a UAF UAV command post on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar. This indicates continued RF counter-drone operations and focus on UAF C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Krasnoarmeysk direction): MoD Russia video claims destruction of a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Sloviansk/Kramatorsk): Colonelcassad publishes video claiming "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk, with a large plume of dark smoke rising, indicating kinetic impact and possible fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Chasiv Yar direction): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes drone footage (likely FPV) from Chasiv Yar direction, showing reconnaissance or strike operations, indicating continued RF activity and drone use in this critical area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Battlefield Footage): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video showing drone footage of a soldier moving along a road and a close-up of a person on the ground with a burning object, indicating an engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Central Ukraine: Missile group (up to 10) towards Myrhorod district, then passing Poltava towards Kremenсhuk. New missile group from Sumy Oblast also moved towards Poltava Oblast. Another group from Cherkasy Oblast diverted from Kropyvnytskyi, heading towards Zvenyhorodka, Kaniv, and Uman districts, then into Vinnytsia Oblast (Nemryriv, Trostyanets), with a general westward course. Kryvyi Rih reports "situation controlled." Aftermath of attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast confirmed. TASS claims RF forces used FABs against UAF reserve positions in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovets Oblast. New threat of strike UAVs for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi districts). UAV reported on Poltava Oblast, heading southwest. Threat of enemy strike UAVs in Zolotoniskyi and Cherkaskyi districts of Cherkasy Oblast. One fatality in Vinnytsia from 16 July strike. Explosions in Kropyvnytskyi and Kryvyi Rih amid ballistic missile threat. High-speed target on Kropyvnytskyi. Kirovohrad Oblast attacked by ballistic missiles. Nikopol district attacked by artillery, MLRS "Grad," and FPV drones. НгП раZVедка reports on aftermath of strike on preparatory camp in Kropyvnytskyi. UAV threat reported in Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, heading northwest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): TASS claims a UK-trained UAF unit was destroyed in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, as stated by Advisor to the DNR Head, Kimakovsky. This is an unverified RF claim. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Update (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): РБК-Україна reports an infrastructure object in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast was damaged due to a drone hit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Ballistic Missile Threat): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports a threat of ballistic missile use from the East in areas where air raid alarms are active. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Poltava Oblast): The Office of the Prosecutor General reports a large-scale manufacturing and sale of counterfeit perfumes and cosmetics of world brands detected in Poltava Oblast. This is a domestic law enforcement event. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Western Ukraine: Cruise missiles confirmed from Vinnytsia Oblast to Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Main group in southern Khmelnytskyi Oblast, then entered Ternopil Oblast, Chernivtsi Oblast (AD engaging, 4 fatalities confirmed), and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast (explosions, damage, casualties). Kinzhal hypersonic missile launched from MiG-31K tracked towards Starokostiantyniv, then Ternopil/Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts, with confirmed explosions and casualties. Mayor of Ivano-Frankivsk confirmed infrastructure damage. Three Shahed UAVs approaching Ivano-Frankivsk reported intercepted. Damage to kindergarten and university in Lviv. Damaged residential buildings (20 private houses) in Kamianets-Podilskyi district, Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Southern Ukraine: New Shahed UAVs detected in Black Sea, heading towards Pivdenne/Koblevo (8 inbound). RF strike on Vasylivskyi district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulted in 2 fatalities, 1 wounded. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reports 14 UAVs shot down (previously 7). Missile threat active for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF 44th Artillery Brigade successfully targeted an RF 2A65 Msta-B. Colonelcassad claims missile strike on Ukrainian gas platform in Black Sea. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides video of drones provided as aid. TASS reports parts of a downed UAF UAV fell on a kindergarten and Ministry of Emergency Situations in Berdyansk. Launches of KABs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast confirmed. UAV threat for Kherson, Zaporizhzhia (Nikopolskyi district), and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts from the south. 4 new Shahed UAVs from Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Pavlohrad. New groups of Shahed UAVs from Black Sea heading towards Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts. Odesa Oblast AD engaged 10 Shahed UAVs over Black Sea; 12 Shahed UAVs confirmed approaching Odesa from the sea. Explosions heard in Odesa. CONFIRMED CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE IN ODESA DUE TO RF UAV ATTACK. RBC-Ukraine provides photo evidence of significant civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa following the recent RF UAV attack, including destroyed vehicles, debris, and extensive damage to an administrative building and nearby residential properties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Update: New video evidence from RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU further confirms the extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Odesa, showing burned cars and a damaged residential building, indicating significant kinetic effects in a populated urban area. Firefighters are actively engaged in response. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Kherson Oblast): TASS reports on Russian Group "Dnepr" UAV calculation with FPV drones destroying a Ukrainian D-20 howitzer on the right bank of Kherson Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Mariupol): TASS reports that the Mariupol port is operating with sufficient staff for current workload, despite being understaffed according to official schedule. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Odesa): "Два майора" (Two Majors), an RF milblogger channel, published multiple photos and videos confirming the extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Odesa, including a burning multi-story building and a commercial street with burned cars and damaged storefronts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also confirmed one fatality in Odesa due to the attack. These reports align with and further corroborate previous UAF reports of civilian infrastructure damage. STERNENKO confirms one person injured in Odesa due to UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Vasylivskyi District, Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has posted photo messages showing a wounded man as a result of an "enemy attack" on Vasylivskyi District. This indicates continued kinetic impacts on civilian populations in the region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Kherson): ASTRA reports one woman injured in Kherson due to attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Southern Direction): Сили оборони Півдня України reports continued RF aviation strikes, FPV drone use, and Shahed UAV attacks on frontline settlements and UAF positions in the Southern direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Update (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video showing a minute of silence, indicating ongoing commemoration for fallen defenders. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 has issued an alert for a ballistic missile threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Zaporizhzhia Direction): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Paratrooper's Diary) provides drone footage of what it claims to be the Zaporizhzhia direction, showing terrain with scattered structures and ruins. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Kherson Direction): "Два майора" publishes a video captioned "Kherson direction," indicating continued operations or observations in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Mykolaiv Oblast): Air Force reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV detected in Mykolaiv Oblast. This indicates continued RF ISR efforts in the south. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Shkolny Airfield, Odesa Oblast): Военкор Котенок shares video claiming that during "Geranium" (Shahed) attack on Shkolny airfield in Odesa Oblast, Ukrainian AD targeted high-rise buildings and local parking, showing firefighters responding to burning cars and a psychologist assisting civilians. This is an RF attempt to shift blame for civilian damage to UAF AD. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Temporary flight restrictions at Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky airports have been lifted. Restrictions also lifted at Nizhny Novgorod airport. RF milbloggers gloat about Kyiv impacts, claiming "precision" of strikes. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claims 18 UAVs shot down over Moscow; RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight (previously 23 over Moscow, and a total of 74 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight). Falling UAV debris on railway station in Rostov Oblast delayed over 50 passenger trains. Fire at Kamianolomni railway station, Rostov Oblast confirmed. Belgorod governor reports 2 civilian injuries from UAF UAV attack. Flooding reported in Moscow streets. Fires reported in Rostov and Moscow oblasts after UAV hits. TASS reports a Moldovan national detained in Ryazan confessed to transmitting data on RF Armed Forces to Kyiv. TASS reports a man detained in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD facilities. TASS reports RF MoD claims 14 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kaluga, Bryansk, Tula, and Oryol Oblasts. Crimean Bridge queue reached 2000 vehicles. TASS reports RF MoD claims 25 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF regions between 16:00 and 22:00 MSK, with 12 over Rostov Oblast and 8 over Bryansk Oblast. Memorial for 5-year old boy in Kursk indicates civilian casualties. Millerovo military airfield in Rostov Oblast attacked by drones, causing explosions/fires. Temporary flight restrictions at Saratov airport have been lifted. Kaluga airport has lifted temporary restrictions. TASS reports foreigners can enter RF without RuID registration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Update (Samara): Rosaviatsiya reports that restrictions have been lifted at Samara airport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Rostov-on-Don): TASS reports a UAV attack was repelled in Rostov-on-Don, Millerovo, Donetsk (Rostov Oblast), and Azov district, with no casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Tula Oblast): TASS reports RF air defense destroyed three Ukrainian UAVs over Tula Oblast, with no casualties or destruction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Rostov Oblast UAV Development): TASS reports the acting governor of Rostov Oblast, Yuri Slyusar, discussed plans to make Rostov Oblast a leader in UAV development, transferring military technology to civilian applications, and expanding production capacity. This indicates a strategic focus on expanding drone production within RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Novosibirsk): TASS reports the detention of a young man in Novosibirsk for hacking information resources of Russian companies and organizations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Samara Oblast): RBC-Ukraine reports a drone attack on Samara Oblast, RF. Video footage from multiple sources shows an unidentified small aircraft/drone flying at altitude and a residential structure, but definitive BDA is not possible from the provided clips. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • New Event (Bryansk Oblast): TASS reports that searches are being conducted at the home of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Moscow): TASS reports the death of Irina Podnosova, the Chairman of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation. This is a significant internal event. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Kabardino-Balkaria): ASTRA reports an emergency situation declared in Tyrnyauz, Kabardino-Balkaria, due to a mudslide. This indicates localized environmental challenges within RF. Operatyvnyi ZSU provides video showing a damaged bridge support on a federal highway due to severe flooding in Kabardino-Balkaria. This directly corroborates the environmental hazard. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Moscow Development): Новости Москвы reports plans for over 800 sports and 1500 children's playgrounds to be built in Moscow this year. This is a domestic development initiative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Crimea): TASS reports three individuals were detained in Crimea for desecrating a monument in Ordzhonikidze. This indicates internal security issues related to historical sites in occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Tyumen): "Операция Z" reports the detention of a migrant in Tyumen who allegedly threatened a teenager on a football field. This is an internal law enforcement matter. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Internal Law Enforcement): TASS reports billionaire Matsotsky appealed his in absentia arrest in a bribery case. This indicates continued internal anti-corruption or criminal investigations within RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (FSB Activity): FSB reports it thwarted activities of three suspects aiding Ukrainian special services in DNR, Yaroslavl, and Lipetsk Oblasts. This highlights continued RF counter-intelligence efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Moscow): ASTRA reports security forces detained Dmitry Kisiev, head of the headquarters of former presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin. This indicates continued suppression of political opposition within RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (RF MoD Corruption): "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports new criminal cases against former Deputy Minister of Defense Pavel Popov for multi-million ruble bribes. This points to ongoing high-level corruption within the RF MoD. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Novorossiysk): TASS reports over 20 apartments damaged by a domestic gas explosion in Novorossiysk. This is a civilian incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (St. Petersburg): ASTRA reports two foreign nationals detained near FSB building in St. Petersburg for dancing. This indicates continued internal security vigilance and control of public behavior. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Foreign Vessel Access): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Putin has toughened rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Poland General's Death): TASS, Colonelcassad, and Alex Parker Returns all report the death of Polish General Waldemar Skrzypczak, who previously threatened Kaliningrad. RF milbloggers frame this cynically as "one less" enemy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (RF MFA Statements): TASS reports RF MFA states RF significantly expanded list of EU representatives and EU institutions banned from entering Russia in response to EU actions. This indicates continued diplomatic retaliation. TASS also reports main statements from RF MFA, including "Western countries continue to use Ukraine as a tool to wage war against Russia." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (FSB Detentions): Военкор Котенок reports FSB detained two Ukrainian special services agents in Russian regions, showing footage of their apprehension and seized materials (chemicals, detonators, firearms), and a confession to planning attacks on railway infrastructure. Операция Z also reports FSB detained three accomplices of Ukrainian special services for preparing terrorist attacks in DNR, Yaroslavl, and Lipetsk Oblasts, showing similar detention footage and confessions related to railway and military infrastructure sabotage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Russian Media Raids): ASTRA reports police and OMON conducted searches at "Baza" publication's editorial office and the editor-in-chief's apartment. This indicates continued internal suppression of independent media. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sumy Oblast: RF conducted a strike on Sumy community's Kovpakivskyi district. Two explosions heard, likely from KABs, impacting residential area and causing damage to apartment building. Three injured, now increased to 12. Emergency services on site. 5 multi-story buildings, a shopping center, and 18 cars damaged. Threat of aviation munitions for Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. Colonelcassad reports "Anvar" unit operating in the border areas of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, providing drone footage of UAF positions, including trenches, dugouts, personnel, and a communication tower, indicating continued RF reconnaissance and targeting efforts in these border regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Update (Sumy): RBC-Ukraine publishes video and photo evidence showing the aftermath of KAB strikes in Sumy, confirming three injured, including a child. This further corroborates the civilian impact of these attacks. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also confirmed RF KAB strike on Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Sumy Direction): "Два майора" publishes FPV drone footage claiming to target a UAF soldier in the Sumy direction near Pisarevka and Khoten. The video shows a drone targeting an individual and an impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Varachino, Sumy Oblast): Операция Z claims Russian army liberated Varachino in Sumy Oblast, attacking in the Sumy direction. This is an unverified RF claim. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) "Воин DV" also publishes a video from "First Channel" reporting on the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade pushing UAF from Russian borders in Sumy Oblast, showing damaged buildings in Varashino, indicating RF claims of advances in this specific area. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • New Event (Sumy Oblast): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kryvyi Rih: Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 22.07.25. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Andriivka: Военкор Котенок shares civilian testimonial from displaced person from Andriivka, highlighting destruction and humanitarian impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Ukraine General: Night operations continue to provide low visibility, favoring RF UAV and missile saturation tactics. Kharkiv Oblast expects worsening weather (heavy rains, thunderstorms), which could impact ground operations and visibility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Heavy rainfall in Moscow Oblast indicates adverse weather conditions within RF territory, potentially impacting logistics or internal movements. Bridge collapse in Moscow region due to heavy rains confirmed, cutting off villages. Significant flooding confirmed in Moscow. TASS reports 15 "Tavriya" trains delayed in communication with Crimea. Train delays at Paveletsky Station due to weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Kabardino-Balkaria): ASTRA reports a mudslide in Tyrnyauz, Kabardino-Balkaria, leading to an emergency situation. Operatyvnyi ZSU provides video showing a damaged bridge support on a federal highway due2 to severe flooding in Kabardino-Balkaria. This indicates localized extreme weather and environmental hazards that could disrupt internal infrastructure and emergency services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF:
  • Air Defense (AD): Fully engaged nationwide against a multi-vector RF aerial assault, including Tu-95MS launched cruise missiles (24 confirmed), ballistic missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic missiles from MiG-31K, and OWA UAVs (Shahed, 426 confirmed). AD actively tracked multiple missile groups across Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts. Kyiv AD actively engaged approximately 10 inbound Shaheds and multiple missiles. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast AD shot down 14 UAVs (previously 7). President Zelenskyy reports UAF AD destroyed over 20 missiles and the "overwhelming majority" of drones (344 of 623 total aerial targets). Southern Defense Forces report 18 Shaheds destroyed in their operational zone. New group of RF UAVs reported from Luhansk Oblast towards Kharkiv. Air Force reports 224 targets shot down/suppressed, with 203 UAVs not reaching targets due to loss of localization/REB. Germany to provide 5 Patriot systems and ammunition. Norway ready to provide significant additional funding for Ukraine's air defense. UAF AF reports UAV threat for Kharkiv Oblast. Sili Oborony Pivdnya Ukraїny video shows Ukrainian soldiers operating a ZU-23 anti-aircraft gun mounted on a truck countering Russian Shahed drones in Mykolaiv area, claiming over 30 air targets neutralized. Николаевский Ванёк reports "minus" on Shahed UAVs ("mopeds") for now. Air Defense is active in Odesa, engaging Shahed UAVs from the Black Sea. Netherlands will make a significant contribution to US Patriot AD systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Update (AD): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports that as of 06:00Z, 26 enemy UAVs have been shot down/suppressed, with 7 more failing to reach targets due to loss of localization/REB. RBC-Ukraine reports Air Force confirmed 42 Russian UAVs attacked overnight. This confirms continued UAF AD effectiveness against RF drone attacks, with updated numbers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Services: Medical teams dispatched to multiple districts in Kyiv and other affected oblasts. Rescue efforts underway for confirmed fatalities and casualties. Firefighters actively engaged. Minister of Internal Affairs reports 15 fires due to Russian shelling, 13 liquidated. KMVA confirms rescue and emergency work ongoing nationwide. Cleanup and emergency services are working in Sumy. Confirmed images and videos from RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU show State Emergency Service (DSNS) personnel actively engaged in firefighting and damage assessment operations in Odesa following RF UAV attacks. This confirms a high level of preparedness and response capability from Ukrainian emergency services. DSNS Ukraine confirms three injured, including a child, in Sumy from KAB strikes. STERNENKO confirms one person injured in Odesa. DSNS and local authorities are actively engaged in Kramatorsk following the KAB strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Control Measures: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats lifted, localized drone alerts persist. Public warnings for shelter ongoing. Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) providing updates; metro red line partially suspended, Lukyanivska station now fully reopened. Temporary changes to Kyiv bus/trolleybus routes. Cabinet of Ministers officially reorganized ministries. Brig. Gen. Hennadiy Shapovalov appointed new commander of UAF Ground Forces. President Zelenskyy reports UAF AD destroyed over 20 missiles and the "overwhelming majority" of drones (344 of 623 total aerial targets). Ukraine plans to open four new embassies. Zelenskyy states new negotiations with Russia planned for Wednesday in Istanbul. Odesa Oblast Military Administration calls for residents to take shelter due to incoming Shaheds. ZAPORIZHZHIYA OBLAST MILITARY ADMINISTRATION HAS LIFTED AIR RAID ALERT. Kryvyi Rih mayor states situation is controlled. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Update (Control Measures): Генеральний штаб ЗСУ and Оперативний ЗСУ continue to publish daily photos promoting the nationwide moment of silence at 09:00, reinforcing national unity and remembrance. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) also highlights the commemoration of fallen Kyiv defenders. RBC-Ukraine reports President Zelenskyy introduced the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) decision on a moratorium on baseless checks and interference by state bodies in business activities. This indicates efforts to improve the business environment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Security Services: SBU and OGP conducting special operation to "neutralize Russian influence on NABU." Detention of NABU detective head (Ruslan Magamedrasulov) suspected of aiding RF and doing business in RF confirmed. Court ordered detention of MP from banned OPZZh party (Fedir Khristenko) suspected of being FSB agent. Over 70 searches conducted. SBU initiated comprehensive check on adherence to state secrets legislation in SAP. General Director of "Forests of Ukraine" served suspicion for illegal enrichment. General Director of "Rostec" and assistant to aggressor state leadership notified of suspicion. Detention of NABU elite unit "D-2" employee suspected of spying for Russian special services confirmed. President Zelenskyy emphasized need for legal architecture to hold Russia accountable for war. Ukraine returned a teenager forcibly taken from Mariupol to Russia. G7 Ambassadors alarmed by NABU scandal. Ukrainian police helped neutralize pro-Russian hacker network NoName057(16). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Foreign Volunteers: 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" claims 2,000 Colombians fighting in its ranks. TASS claims UAF deployed a platoon of "Latin American mercenaries" to Aleksandrovgrad, DNR, and then claims they fled. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Resource Requirements: UAF National Guard's "Rubizh" brigade crowdfunding for "destroyed property and equipment." Zelenskyy emphasizes need for increased domestic production of weapons and drones (50% within six months). Hundreds of agreements with partners for weapon supply, joint production, and investments. Ukraine needs $6 billion to cover gap in weapons procurement for current year. Britain transferred $200 million of $940 million in air defense assets and artillery shells. Urgent fundraiser for drones for UAF 32nd Steel Brigade. French companies ready to start drone production in Ukraine. Canada will allocate $14.6 million USD for maintenance of Ukrainian tanks and finance Ukrainian defense industry through "Danish model." Canada will allocate $15 million for Leopard 2 tank repairs. NATO can provide additional funding for Ukrainian army, specifically for military motivation and drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Update (Resource Requirements): РБК-Україна reports that the "Rubizh" brigade of the NGU is collecting funds for the restoration of destroyed property and equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Training: UAF 61st OMBr tank crews conducting rigorous training. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF 63rd Mechanized Brigade reports liquidation of 33 RF personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Chernihiv): Colonelcassad reports and provides video of TCC (Territorial Recruitment Center) personnel in Chernihiv violently detaining a man in handcuffs, forcefully bringing him to the ground. This indicates continued, aggressive mobilization efforts and potential for public discontent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (UK Sanctions): The UK has introduced new sanctions against 135 tankers belonging to Russia's "shadow fleet." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (RF Losses): General Staff of UAF provides estimated total combat losses for RF from 24.02.22 to 22.07.25. (Figures are approximate and should be cross-referenced). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (47th Separate Mechanized Brigade): ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» publishes a video showing ZALA drones being "burned" along with their "girlfriends." While details are limited, this suggests active counter-drone operations by the 47th Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Domestic Production): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that domestic 155-mm Bohdana-BG howitzers have entered service with the 40th Separate Artillery Brigade. This is a significant development for UAF's domestic long-range artillery capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Psychological Operations): 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України (46th Separate Airmobile Brigade) released a video appealing to RF soldiers to surrender, offering humane treatment and monetary rewards for surrendered equipment. This indicates active UAF psychological operations (PSYOPS). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Anti-Corruption): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports that the President of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine has been suspended from his post at the request of the Prosecutor General's Office due to a criminal investigation. This indicates continued anti-corruption efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Drone Recruitment): DeepState publishes a recruitment video for the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade's unmanned systems unit, indicating continued efforts to recruit and train drone operators. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (UAF Funds for Drones): STERNENKO promotes a raffle for a silver FPV drone, indicating continued crowdfunding efforts for UAF drone procurement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Convict Mobilization): РБК-Україна reports approximately 9500 convicts have joined the AFU. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Ukraine-Denmark Drone Interceptor): РБК-Україна reports Ukraine and Denmark are developing an AI-powered drone interceptor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Netherlands Aid): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Netherlands provides €200M for interceptor drones and €125M for F-16 maintenance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Prosecutor Investigation): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports investigations launched into attacks on Odesa, Donetsk, and Sumy regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Currency Exchange Rates): РБК-Україна reports exchange offices lowered the USD rate and raised the EUR rate. This indicates minor economic fluctuations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Ramstein Meeting): Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes photo messages indicating participation of Ukrainian Minister of Defense in the Ramstein Contact Group meeting, highlighting continued international support and coordination. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (UAF Soldier with Weapon): Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes photos of a UAF soldier with a weapon, captioned "This is a very good weapon if you know how to use it," aiming to boost morale and project professionalism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Chief of General Staff at Diplomatic Event): Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes photos of Major General Andrii Hnatov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, speaking at a plenary session for heads of foreign diplomatic institutions, titled "Strengthening national resilience: security situation at the front and defense policy priorities." This highlights UAF's diplomatic engagement and strategic communication. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Pension for Military Personnel): Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes information on pensions for military personnel, indicating a focus on soldier welfare and social policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (NABU Information Leak Investigation): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports new facts of restricted information leaks from NABU, indicating continued internal investigations and efforts to combat corruption. Operatyvnyi ZSU and RBC-Ukraine also report on this, including finding sensitive documents at the home of an OPZZh MP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (F-16 Project): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine publishes video showcasing an F-16 fighter jet and mentions a "new project," highlighting ongoing efforts to integrate Western airpower and develop new capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RUF:
  • Deep Operations (UAV/Missile/Aviation Munitions): RF executing high-volume, multi-wave, multi-domain deep strike campaign. Included Tu-95MS strategic bomber launches (24 cruise missiles), sustained Shahed UAV attacks (426 total OWA UAVs), and re-engagement of MiG-31K for Kinzhal hypersonic missile launches against Western Ukraine (Starokostiantyniv, Ivano-Frankivsk) and now Kyiv (3 Kinzhals). Colonelcassad claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv. TASS claims RF forces used FABs against UAF reserve positions in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovets Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KABs on Donetsk Oblast and Sumy Oblast. RF milbloggers gloating about Kyiv impacts, claiming "precision" of strikes. Alex Parker Returns claims missile strike on Black Sea platform. Воин DV shares FPV drone footage claiming successful neutralization of multiple UAF equipment. НгП раZVедка provides summary of "Night strike of retribution." MoD Russia claims grouped strike with high-precision long-range air, ground, and sea-based weapons against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure. Alex Parker Returns video shows damaged McDonald's restaurant and bank in Kyiv. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. Воин DV provides video footage of "FABing" by 11th Guards Army Air Force and Air Defense. TASS video shows FPV drone strike destroying UAF BMP-3. Alex Parker Returns explicitly states intent to use "Geranium" (Shaheds) on frontline due to scaled production. MoD Russia video shows Kub loitering munitions, detailing capabilities and warhead size. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF KAB strike on Sumy. RF conducted a KAB strike on a residential building in Kramatorsk. Alex Parker Returns publishes videos claiming to show military operations, including rocket artillery and drones, and offering 3 million rubles for military service, indicating continued recruitment efforts. Kotsnews publishes video claiming "Harpies are hunting," showing aerial footage of a strike on a village with significant explosion and smoke. This indicates the use of advanced loitering munitions or precision-guided bombs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Aviation: RF airports lifted temporary restrictions. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claims 18 UAVs destroyed over Moscow; RF MoD claims 35 UAVs over RF territory were destroyed overnight (previously 23 over Moscow region and 74 total UAVs destroyed over RF territory). "Воин DV" claims bomber strikes in Yanvarskyi. TASS confirms Vnukovo airport resumed normal operations. TASS reports RF MoD claims 14 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kaluga, Bryansk, Tula, and Oryol Oblasts. Millerovo military airfield in Rostov Oblast attacked by drones, causing explosions/fires. Temporary flight restrictions implemented at Saratov airport. Kaluga airport has lifted temporary restrictions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Operations (Popov Yar, Bila Hora claim, Malaya Tokmachka claim): RF Ministry of Defense claims ground forces liberated "Popov Yar." Leonid Sharov claims destruction of UAF M113 BTR and Akatsiya SPG, inflicting over 240 personnel losses in Kupiansk, Lyman, and Kupyansk directions. RF sources claim establishment of bridgehead near Guyevo (Kursk Oblast). TASS claims "liberation of Bila Hora" to cut UAF supply route. DeepState reports RF advances in Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, and near three other villages in Donetsk Oblast. MoD Russia provides video of servicemen from 102nd Motorised Rifle Regiment on Popov Yar. RF milbloggers claim RF has opened a new front in Kharkiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares thermal imagery video indicating activity on Chasiv Yar direction. Басурин о главном video confirms Russian military operations near Belaya Gora, claiming capture of foreign weapons. Воин DV video claims destruction of UAF 2S1 Gvozdika. Liveuamap Source provides multiple photo messages of clashes at Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Huliaipole, and Kherson directions. Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces repelled 23 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction. Colonelcassad claims a Russian breakthrough in Malaya Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. MoD Russia video shows T-72B3M tank crew destroying AFU stronghold near Zeleny Gai. STERNENKO video reports Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment holding back Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad claims assault troops of 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade advancing in Bila Hora area. Сили оборони Півдня України video shows drone operators conducting reconnaissance of camouflaged enemy positions. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ video shows FPV drone strike on Russian military vehicle. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) [Video message] shows military vehicles advancing, one exploding. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) [Video message] Caption: ‼️🇷🇺🏴‍☠️ Наши ДРГ уже в Покровске! - кадры одной из засад на машину ВСУ (Video shows occupants under fire from inside a vehicle). DeepState reports liquidation of RF sabotage groups in Pokrovsk. COLONELCASSAD HAS PUBLISHED MULTIPLE PHOTOS WITH CAPTIONS "MOMENTS OF THE SVO. FRONTLINE DAYS." LIKELY FROM RF GROUND OPERATIONS. Colonelcassad claims enemy is complaining about RF using lightweight 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from North Korea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Kharkiv Oblast): TASS reports RF forces advanced near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast, dislodging UAF units from several positions. This is an unverified RF claim. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • New Event (Popov Yar, Donetsk Oblast): TASS reports a group of Ukrainian servicemen surrendered in Popov Yar, DNR, as stated by Sergey Kolesnikov, commander of the 3rd Assault Company of the "Center" grouping. This is an RF claim of UAF surrender. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • New Event (South-Donetsk Direction): Colonelcassad provides video footage of 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade's reconnaissance working in South-Donetsk direction, claiming destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Pokrovsk): "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes new video footage, purportedly dashcam footage from a military vehicle, claiming to show the aftermath of combat and destruction, including a previously reported ambush on a UAF vehicle by RF DRG in Pokrovsk. This indicates continued, aggressive RF DRG activity in the area. WarGonzo also provides video claiming Russian DRGs entering outskirts of Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Varachino, Sumy Oblast): Операция Z claims Russian army liberated Varachino in Sumy Oblast, attacking in the Sumy direction. This is an unverified RF claim. "Воин DV" also publishes a video from "First Channel" reporting on the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade pushing UAF from Russian borders in Sumy Oblast, showing damaged buildings in Varashino, indicating RF claims of advances in this specific area. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Update (Kharkiv Oblast): Colonelcassad publishes a video showing RF engineering-road platoon personnel engaged in demining operations in "liberated territory" in the Kharkiv direction, highlighting dangers from FPV drones. This suggests RF is attempting to consolidate gains and expand its logistical reach in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Update (Luhansk Oblast): TASS reports that RF forces have built new fortifications and observation posts near Chervona Dibrova in Luhansk People's Republic (LPR), and that UAF is actively mining the area. This indicates a contested area with active defensive and offensive engineering by both sides. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Tactical Drone Operations): MoD Russia provides video showing "Feniks" (Phoenix) drone in action. The video shows Russian soldiers deploying and operating a drone with a payload, performing reconnaissance and potential attack. This indicates continued RF investment in tactical drone capabilities and their active use. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Update (Chasiv Yar): Colonelcassad provides video footage claiming the destruction of a UAF UAV command post on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar. This indicates continued RF counter-drone operations and focus on UAF C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Belgorod Oblast): ASTRA reports two people injured by an FPV drone attack on a vehicle in Leonovka, Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Eastern Ukraine): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Izium, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk were hit by RF strikes on military objects. This is an RF claim, and earlier reports confirm Kramatorsk civilian casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Krasnoarmeysk direction): MoD Russia video claims destruction of a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Sloviansk): Colonelcassad publishes video claiming "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk, with a large plume of dark smoke rising, indicating kinetic impact and possible fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Chasiv Yar Direction): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes drone footage (likely FPV) from Chasiv Yar direction, showing reconnaissance or strike operations, indicating continued RF activity and drone use in this critical area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Battlefield Engagement): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video showing drone footage of a soldier moving along a road and a close-up of a person on the ground with a burning object, indicating an engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (UAF Baba Yaga Drone Destruction): Народная милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" heavy drone by the 33rd Motor Rifle Regiment, with footage showing the drone's perspective. This is an RF claim of counter-drone success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Russian Armored Personnel Carrier Deployment): TASS publishes video showing an RF armored personnel carrier (APC) maneuvering in grassy terrain, indicating continued tactical ground force operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• «Зона СВО» video of an individual speaking in Russian, addressing a controversial figure and criticizing their alleged lack of combat experience and slander, suggesting internal RF information operations. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Control Measures: RF maintained temporary flight restrictions, now being lifted. RF actively promoting narrative of successful counter-UAV measures. RF Prime Minister Mishustin announced ~180 billion rubles for border crossing point repairs and openness to investments from "friendly countries." Moldovan national detained for transmitting data on RF Armed Forces to Kyiv. State Duma committee recommended bill introducing administrative liability for digital platform operators. Man detained in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD facilities. Colonelcassad shares a photo of a monument dedicated to "Hitler's allies" in Moldova, accompanied by text criticizing it, indicating RF efforts to leverage historical narratives to influence regional politics and public opinion in Moldova. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Naval Operations): "Операция Z" reports the Russian warship "Boykiy" (Steregushchiy class) escorted the tanker "General Skobelev" and the dry cargo ship "Sparta" from the Baltic Sea through the North Sea and English Channel to the Atlantic. Both escorted vessels were previously noted for transporting Russian military equipment from Syria. This demonstrates RF's continued naval presence and sustainment of overseas operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Putin toughened rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Internal Affairs): The Khabarovsk Krai Police has published photo messages detailing a criminal case regarding hooliganism in an apartment building. This indicates RF's continued focus on internal law and order. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Economic Affairs): TASS reports Prime Minister Mishustin arrived in Chita to hold a meeting on grain exports. This highlights RF's focus on economic stability and export. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Religious Propaganda): "Операция Z" (Русской Весны) has published videos promoting Orthodox Christian traditions and liturgical vestments. This indicates RF's continued use of cultural and religious narratives for internal propaganda, aimed at fostering national unity and traditional values, particularly within the context of military operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Hacking Activity): TASS reports the detention of a young man in Novosibirsk for hacking information resources of Russian companies and organizations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Slovakia Gas): Оперативний ЗСУ reports Slovakia plans to receive up to 100% of its gas from Russia next year due to EU exceptions. This indicates continued, albeit selective, European economic engagement with RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Internal Security): "Два майора" publishes a video discussing the sentencing of Azerbaijani natives involved in organizing illegal migration, indicating RF's focus on internal security and immigration control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Internal Law Enforcement): Полиция Хабаровского края publishes a video of a formal meeting between officials of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation, focused on internal security and law enforcement cooperation. This indicates RF's continued efforts in maintaining law and order and international cooperation in this domain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Update (Internal Affairs): TASS reports that searches are being conducted at the home of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 also reports this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Internal Political/Legal): TASS reports the death of Irina Podnosova, the Chairman of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation. This is a significant internal event. TASS confirms the cause of death was cancer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Internal Affairs): Новости Москвы reports on large-scale urban development plans for sports and children's playgrounds to be built in Moscow this year. This is a domestic development initiative. Новости Москвы also highlights "promising sectors for employment" and criticizes the EU for creating a "brain drain" and "new iron curtain." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Internal Law Enforcement/Dissident Activity): ASTRA reports security forces detained Dmitry Kisiev, head of the headquarters of former presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin. This indicates continued suppression of political opposition within RF. ASTRA also reports two foreign nationals detained near FSB building in St. Petersburg for dancing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (RF MoD Corruption): "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports new criminal cases against former Deputy Minister of Defense Pavel Popov for multi-million ruble bribes. This points to ongoing high-level corruption within the RF MoD. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Novorossiysk): TASS reports over 20 apartments damaged by a domestic gas explosion in Novorossiysk. This is a civilian incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Poland General's Death): TASS reports the death of Polish General Waldemar Skrzypczak, stating he threatened to attack Kaliningrad. Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns also report this, using triumphalist language ("Ещё один не явился на войну. Соскочил. Быть добру!"). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (RF MFA Statements): TASS reports RF MFA states RF significantly expanded list of EU representatives and EU institutions banned from entering Russia. Also, main statements include Western countries using Ukraine as a tool to wage war against Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (FSB Detentions): Военкор Котенок reports FSB detained two Ukrainian special services agents for planning terrorist activities on railway infrastructure, showing confessions and seized materials. Операция Z also reports FSB detained three accomplices for preparing terrorist acts in DNR, Yaroslavl, and Lipetsk Oblasts targeting railway and military infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Russian Media Raids): ASTRA reports police and OMON conducted searches at "Baza" publication's editorial office and the editor-in-chief's apartment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Territory (Internal Security): An individual in military-style clothing, possibly a captured RF serviceman, is shown blindfolded and bound. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Ukraine General: Night operations continue to provide low visibility, favoring RF UAV and missile saturation tactics. Kharkiv Oblast expects worsening weather (heavy rains, thunderstorms), which could impact ground operations and visibility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Heavy rainfall in Moscow Oblast indicates adverse weather conditions within RF territory, potentially impacting logistics or internal movements. Bridge collapse in Moscow region due to heavy rains confirmed, cutting off villages. Significant flooding confirmed in Moscow. TASS reports 15 "Tavriya" trains delayed in communication with Crimea. Train delays at Paveletsky Station due to weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Kabardino-Balkaria): ASTRA reports a mudslide in Tyrnyauz, Kabardino-Balkaria, leading to an emergency situation. Operatyvnyi ZSU provides video showing a damaged bridge support on a federal highway due2 to severe flooding in Kabardino-Balkaria. This indicates localized extreme weather and environmental hazards that could disrupt internal infrastructure and emergency services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF:
  • Air Defense (AD): Fully engaged nationwide against a multi-vector RF aerial assault, including Tu-95MS launched cruise missiles (24 confirmed), ballistic missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic missiles from MiG-31K, and OWA UAVs (426 confirmed total). AD actively tracked multiple missile groups across Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts. Kyiv AD actively engaged approximately 10 inbound Shaheds and multiple missiles. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast AD shot down 14 UAVs (previously 7). President Zelenskyy reports UAF AD destroyed over 20 missiles and the "overwhelming majority" of drones (344 of 623 total aerial targets). Southern Defense Forces report 18 Shaheds destroyed in their operational zone. New group of RF UAVs reported from Luhansk Oblast towards Kharkiv. Air Force reports 224 targets shot down/suppressed, with 203 UAVs not reaching targets due to loss of localization/REB. Germany to provide 5 Patriot systems and ammunition. Norway ready to provide significant additional funding for Ukraine's air defense. UAF AF reports UAV threat for Kharkiv Oblast. Sili Oborony Pivdnya Ukraїny video shows Ukrainian soldiers operating a ZU-23 anti-aircraft gun mounted on a truck countering Russian Shahed drones in Mykolaiv area, claiming over 30 air targets neutralized. Николаевский Ванёк reports "minus" on Shahed UAVs ("mopeds") for now. Air Defense is active in Odesa, engaging Shahed UAVs from the Black Sea. Netherlands will make a significant contribution to US Patriot AD systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Update (AD): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports that as of 06:00Z, 26 enemy UAVs have been shot down/suppressed, with 7 more failing to reach targets due to loss of localization/REB. RBC-Ukraine reports Air Force confirmed 42 Russian UAVs attacked overnight. This confirms continued UAF AD effectiveness against RF drone attacks, with updated numbers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Services: Medical teams dispatched to multiple districts in Kyiv and other affected oblasts. Rescue efforts underway for confirmed fatalities and casualties. Firefighters actively engaged. Minister of Internal Affairs reports 15 fires due to Russian shelling, 13 liquidated. KMVA confirms rescue and emergency work ongoing nationwide. Cleanup and emergency services are working in Sumy. Confirmed images and videos from RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU show State Emergency Service (DSNS) personnel actively engaged in firefighting and damage assessment operations in Odesa following RF UAV attacks. This confirms a high level of preparedness and response capability from Ukrainian emergency services. DSNS Ukraine confirms three injured, including a child, in Sumy from KAB strikes. STERNENKO confirms one person injured in Odesa. DSNS and local authorities are actively engaged in Kramatorsk following the KAB strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Control Measures: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats lifted, localized drone alerts persist. Public warnings for shelter ongoing. Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) providing updates; metro red line partially suspended, Lukyanivska station now fully reopened. Temporary changes to Kyiv bus/trolleybus routes. Cabinet of Ministers officially reorganized ministries. Brig. Gen. Hennadiy Shapovalov appointed new commander of UAF Ground Forces. President Zelenskyy reports UAF AD destroyed over 20 missiles and the "overwhelming majority" of drones (344 of 623 total aerial targets). Ukraine plans to open four new embassies. Zelenskyy states new negotiations with Russia planned for Wednesday in Istanbul. Odesa Oblast Military Administration calls for residents to take shelter due to incoming Shaheds. ZAPORIZHZHIYA OBLAST MILITARY ADMINISTRATION HAS LIFTED AIR RAID ALERT. Kryvyi Rih mayor states situation is controlled. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Update (Control Measures): Генеральний штаб ЗСУ and Оперативний ЗСУ continue to publish daily photos promoting the nationwide moment of silence at 09:00, reinforcing national unity and remembrance. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) also highlights the commemoration of fallen Kyiv defenders. RBC-Ukraine reports President Zelenskyy introduced the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) decision on a moratorium on baseless checks and interference by state bodies in business activities. This indicates efforts to improve the business environment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Security Services: SBU and OGP conducting special operation to "neutralize Russian influence on NABU." Detention of NABU detective head (Ruslan Magamedrasulov) suspected of aiding RF and doing business in RF confirmed. Court ordered detention of MP from banned OPZZh party (Fedir Khristenko) suspected of being FSB agent. Over 70 searches conducted. SBU initiated comprehensive check on adherence to state secrets legislation in SAP. General Director of "Forests of Ukraine" served suspicion for illegal enrichment. General Director of "Rostec" and assistant to aggressor state leadership notified of suspicion. Detention of NABU elite unit "D-2" employee suspected of spying for Russian special services confirmed. President Zelenskyy emphasized need for legal architecture to hold Russia accountable for war. Ukraine returned a teenager forcibly taken from Mariupol to Russia. G7 Ambassadors alarmed by NABU scandal. Ukrainian police helped neutralize pro-Russian hacker network NoName057(16). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Foreign Volunteers: 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" claims 2,000 Colombians fighting in its ranks. TASS claims UAF deployed a platoon of "Latin American mercenaries" to Aleksandrovgrad, DNR, and then claims they fled. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Resource Requirements: UAF National Guard's "Rubizh" brigade crowdfunding for "destroyed property and equipment." Zelenskyy emphasizes need for increased domestic production of weapons and drones (50% within six months). Hundreds of agreements with partners for weapon supply, joint production, and investments. Ukraine needs $6 billion to cover gap in weapons procurement for current year. Britain transferred $200 million of $940 million in air defense assets and artillery shells. Urgent fundraiser for drones for UAF 32nd Steel Brigade. French companies ready to start drone production in Ukraine. Canada will allocate $14.6 million USD for maintenance of Ukrainian tanks and finance Ukrainian defense industry through "Danish model." Canada will allocate $15 million for Leopard 2 tank repairs. NATO can provide additional funding for Ukrainian army, specifically for military motivation and drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Update (Resource Requirements): РБК-Україна reports that the "Rubizh" brigade of the NGU is collecting funds for the restoration of destroyed property and equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Training: UAF 61st OMBr tank crews conducting rigorous training. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF 63rd Mechanized Brigade reports liquidation of 33 RF personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Chernihiv): Colonelcassad reports and provides video of TCC (Territorial Recruitment Center) personnel in Chernihiv violently detaining a man in handcuffs, forcefully bringing him to the ground. This indicates continued, aggressive mobilization efforts and potential for public discontent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (UK Sanctions): The UK has introduced new sanctions against 135 tankers belonging to Russia's "shadow fleet." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (RF Losses): General Staff of UAF provides estimated total combat losses for RF from 24.02.22 to 22.07.25. (Figures are approximate and should be cross-referenced). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (47th Separate Mechanized Brigade): ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» publishes a video showing ZALA drones being "burned" along with their "girlfriends." While details are limited, this suggests active counter-drone operations by the 47th Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Domestic Production): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that domestic 155-mm Bohdana-BG howitzers have entered service with the 40th Separate Artillery Brigade. This is a significant development for UAF's domestic long-range artillery capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Psychological Operations): 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України (46th Separate Airmobile Brigade) released a video appealing to RF soldiers to surrender, offering humane treatment and monetary rewards for surrendered equipment. This indicates active UAF psychological operations (PSYOPS). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Anti-Corruption): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports that the President of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine has been suspended from his post at the request of the Prosecutor General's Office due to a criminal investigation. This indicates continued anti-corruption efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Drone Recruitment): DeepState publishes a recruitment video for the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade's unmanned systems unit, indicating continued efforts to recruit and train drone operators. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (UAF Funds for Drones): STERNENKO promotes a raffle for a silver FPV drone, indicating continued crowdfunding efforts for UAF drone procurement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Convict Mobilization): РБК-Україна reports approximately 9500 convicts have joined the AFU. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Ukraine-Denmark Drone Interceptor): РБК-Україна reports Ukraine and Denmark are developing an AI-powered drone interceptor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Netherlands Aid): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Netherlands provides €200M for interceptor drones and €125M for F-16 maintenance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Prosecutor Investigation): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports investigations launched into attacks on Odesa, Donetsk, and Sumy regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Currency Exchange Rates): РБК-Україна reports exchange offices lowered the USD rate and raised the EUR rate. This indicates minor economic fluctuations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Ramstein Meeting): Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes photo messages indicating participation of Ukrainian Minister of Defense in the Ramstein Contact Group meeting, highlighting continued international support and coordination. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (UAF Soldier with Weapon): Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishes photos of a UAF soldier with a weapon, captioned "This is a very good weapon if you know how to use it," aiming to boost morale and project professionalism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Chief of General Staff at Diplomatic Event): Генеральний штаб ЗСУ publishes photos of Major General Andrii Hnatov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, speaking at a plenary session for heads of foreign diplomatic institutions, titled "Strengthening national resilience: security situation at the front and defense policy priorities." This highlights UAF's diplomatic engagement and strategic communication. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Pension for Military Personnel): Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 publishes information on pensions for military personnel, indicating a focus on soldier welfare and social policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (NABU Information Leak Investigation): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports new facts of restricted information leaks from NABU, indicating continued internal investigations and efforts to combat corruption. Operatyvnyi ZSU and RBC-Ukraine also report on this, including finding sensitive documents at the home of an OPZZh MP. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (F-16 Project): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine publishes video showcasing an F-16 fighter jet and mentions a "new project," highlighting ongoing efforts to integrate Western airpower and develop new capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RUF:
  • Deep Operations (UAV/Missile/Aviation Munitions): RF executing high-volume, multi-wave, multi-domain deep strike campaign. Included Tu-95MS strategic bomber launches (24 cruise missiles), sustained Shahed UAV attacks (426 total OWA UAVs), and re-engagement of MiG-31K for Kinzhal hypersonic missile launches against Western Ukraine (Starokostiantyniv, Ivano-Frankivsk) and now Kyiv (3 Kinzhals). Colonelcassad claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv. TASS claims RF forces used FABs against UAF reserve positions in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovets Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KABs on Donetsk Oblast and Sumy Oblast. RF milbloggers gloating about Kyiv impacts, claiming "precision" of strikes. Alex Parker Returns claims missile strike on Black Sea platform. Воин DV shares FPV drone footage claiming successful neutralization of multiple UAF equipment. НгП раZVедка provides summary of "Night strike of retribution." MoD Russia claims grouped strike with high-precision long-range air, ground, and sea-based weapons against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure. Alex Parker Returns video shows damaged McDonald's restaurant and bank in Kyiv. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. Воин DV provides video footage of "FABing" by 11th Guards Army Air Force and Air Defense. TASS video shows FPV drone strike destroying UAF BMP-3. Alex Parker Returns explicitly states intent to use "Geranium" (Shaheds) on frontline due to scaled production. MoD Russia video shows Kub loitering munitions, detailing capabilities and warhead size. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RF KAB strike on Sumy. RF conducted a KAB strike on a residential building in Kramatorsk. Alex Parker Returns publishes videos claiming to show military operations, including rocket artillery and drones, and offering 3 million rubles for military service, indicating continued recruitment efforts. Kotsnews publishes video claiming "Harpies" are hunting," showing aerial footage of a strike on a village with significant explosion and smoke. This indicates the use of advanced loitering munitions or precision-guided bombs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Aviation: RF airports lifted temporary restrictions. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claims 18 UAVs destroyed over Moscow; RF MoD claims 35 UAVs over RF territory were destroyed overnight (previously 23 over Moscow region and 74 total UAVs destroyed over RF territory). "Воин DV" claims bomber strikes in Yanvarskyi. TASS confirms Vnukovo airport resumed normal operations. TASS reports RF MoD claims 14 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kaluga, Bryansk, Tula, and Oryol Oblasts. Millerovo military airfield in Rostov Oblast attacked by drones, causing explosions/fires. Temporary flight restrictions implemented at Saratov airport. Kaluga airport has lifted temporary restrictions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Operations (Popov Yar, Bila Hora claim, Malaya Tokmachka claim): RF Ministry of Defense claims ground forces liberated "Popov Yar." Leonid Sharov claims destruction of UAF M113 BTR and Akatsiya SPG, inflicting over 240 personnel losses in Kupiansk, Lyman, and Kupyansk directions. RF sources claim establishment of bridgehead near Guyevo (Kursk Oblast). TASS claims "liberation of Bila Hora" to cut UAF supply route. DeepState reports RF advances in Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, and near three other villages in Donetsk Oblast. MoD Russia provides video of servicemen from 102nd Motorised Rifle Regiment on Popov Yar. RF milbloggers claim RF has opened a new front in Kharkiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares thermal imagery video indicating activity on Chasiv Yar direction. Басурин о главном video confirms Russian military operations near Belaya Gora, claiming capture of foreign weapons. Воин DV video claims destruction of UAF 2S1 Gvozdika. Liveuamap Source provides multiple photo messages of clashes at Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Huliaipole, and Kherson directions. Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces repelled 23 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction. Colonelcassad claims a Russian breakthrough in Malaya Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. MoD Russia video shows T-72B3M tank crew destroying AFU stronghold near Zeleny Gai. STERNENKO video reports Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment holding back Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad claims assault troops of 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade advancing in Bila Hora area. Сили оборони Півдня України video shows drone operators conducting reconnaissance of camouflaged enemy positions. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ video shows FPV drone strike on Russian military vehicle. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) [Video message] shows military vehicles advancing, one exploding. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) [Video message] Caption: ‼️🇷🇺🏴‍☠️ Наши ДРГ уже в Покровске! - кадры одной из засад на машину ВСУ (Video shows occupants under fire from inside a vehicle). DeepState reports liquidation of RF sabotage groups in Pokrovsk. COLONELCASSAD HAS PUBLISHED MULTIPLE PHOTOS WITH CAPTIONS "MOMENTS OF THE SVO. FRONTLINE DAYS." LIKELY FROM RF GROUND OPERATIONS. Colonelcassad claims enemy is complaining about RF using lightweight 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from North Korea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Kharkiv Oblast): TASS reports RF forces advanced near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast, dislodging UAF units from several positions. This is an unverified RF claim. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • New Event (Popov Yar, Donetsk Oblast): TASS reports a group of Ukrainian servicemen surrendered in Popov Yar, DNR, as stated by Sergey Kolesnikov, commander of the 3rd Assault Company of the "Center" grouping. This is an RF claim of UAF surrender. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • New Event (South-Donetsk Direction): Colonelcassad provides video footage of 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade's reconnaissance working in South-Donetsk direction, claiming destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Pokrovsk): "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes new video footage, purportedly dashcam footage from a military vehicle, claiming to show the aftermath of combat and destruction, including a previously reported ambush on a UAF vehicle by RF DRG in Pokrovsk. This indicates continued, aggressive RF DRG activity in the area. WarGonzo also provides video claiming Russian DRGs entering outskirts of Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Varachino, Sumy Oblast): Операция Z claims Russian army liberated Varachino in Sumy Oblast, attacking in the Sumy direction. This is an unverified RF claim. "Воин DV" also publishes a video from "First Channel" reporting on the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade pushing UAF from Russian borders in Sumy Oblast, showing damaged buildings in Varashino, indicating RF claims of advances in this specific area. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Update (Kharkiv Oblast): Colonelcassad publishes a video showing RF engineering-road platoon personnel engaged in demining operations in "liberated territory" in the Kharkiv direction, highlighting dangers from FPV drones. This suggests RF is attempting to consolidate gains and expand its logistical reach in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Update (Luhansk Oblast): TASS reports that RF forces have built new fortifications and observation posts near Chervona Dibrova in Luhansk People's Republic (LPR), and that UAF is actively mining the area. This indicates a contested area with active defensive and offensive engineering by both sides. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Tactical Drone Operations): MoD Russia provides video showing "Feniks" (Phoenix) drone in action. The video shows Russian soldiers deploying and operating a drone with a payload, performing reconnaissance and potential attack. This indicates continued RF investment in tactical drone capabilities and their active use. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Update (Chasiv Yar): Colonelcassad provides video footage claiming the destruction of a UAF UAV command post on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar. This indicates continued RF counter-drone operations and focus on UAF C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Belgorod Oblast): ASTRA reports two people injured by an FPV drone attack on a vehicle in Leonovka, Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Eastern Ukraine): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Izium, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk were hit by RF strikes on military objects. This is an RF claim, and earlier reports confirm Kramatorsk civilian casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Krasnoarmeysk direction): MoD Russia video claims destruction of a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Sloviansk): Colonelcassad publishes video claiming "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk, with a large plume of dark smoke rising, indicating kinetic impact and possible fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Chasiv Yar Direction): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes drone footage (likely FPV) from Chasiv Yar direction, showing reconnaissance or strike operations, indicating continued RF activity and drone use in this critical area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Battlefield Engagement): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video showing drone footage of a soldier moving along a road and a close-up of a person on the ground with a burning object, indicating an engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (UAF Baba Yaga Drone Destruction): Народная милиция ДНР publishes video claiming destruction of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" heavy drone by the 33rd Motor Rifle Regiment, with footage showing the drone's perspective. This is an RF claim of counter-drone success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Russian Armored Personnel Carrier Deployment): TASS publishes video showing an RF armored personnel carrier (APC) maneuvering in grassy terrain, indicating continued tactical ground force operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• «Зона СВО» video of an individual speaking in Russian, addressing a controversial figure and criticizing their alleged lack of combat experience and slander, suggesting internal RF information operations. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Control Measures: RF maintained temporary flight restrictions, now being lifted. RF actively promoting narrative of successful counter-UAV measures. RF Prime Minister Mishustin announced ~180 billion rubles for border crossing point repairs and openness to investments from "friendly countries." Moldovan national detained for transmitting data on RF Armed Forces to Kyiv. State Duma committee recommended bill introducing administrative liability for digital platform operators. Man detained in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD facilities. Colonelcassad shares a photo of a monument dedicated to "Hitler's allies" in Moldova, accompanied by text criticizing it, indicating RF efforts to leverage historical narratives to influence regional politics and public opinion in Moldova. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Naval Operations): "Операция Z" reports the Russian warship "Boykiy" (Steregushchiy class) escorted the tanker "General Skobelev" and the dry cargo ship "Sparta" from the Baltic Sea through the North Sea and English Channel to the Atlantic. Both escorted vessels were previously noted for transporting Russian military equipment from Syria. This demonstrates RF's continued naval presence and sustainment of overseas operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Putin toughened rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Internal Affairs): The Khabarovsk Krai Police has published photo messages detailing a criminal case regarding hooliganism in an apartment building. This indicates RF's continued focus on internal law and order. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Economic Affairs): TASS reports Prime Minister Mishustin arrived in Chita to hold a meeting on grain exports. This highlights RF's focus on economic stability and export. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Religious Propaganda): "Операция Z" (Русской Весны) has published videos promoting Orthodox Christian traditions and liturgical vestments. This indicates RF's continued use of cultural and religious narratives for internal propaganda, aimed at fostering national unity and traditional values, particularly within the context of military operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Hacking Activity): TASS reports the detention of a young man in Novosibirsk for hacking information resources of Russian companies and organizations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Slovakia Gas): Оперативний ЗСУ reports Slovakia plans to receive up to 100% of its gas from Russia next year due to EU exceptions. This indicates continued, albeit selective, European economic engagement with RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Internal Security): "Два майора" publishes a video discussing the sentencing of Azerbaijani natives involved in organizing illegal migration, indicating RF's focus on internal security and immigration control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Internal Law Enforcement): Полиция Хабаровского края publishes a video of a formal meeting between officials of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation, focused on internal security and law enforcement cooperation. This indicates RF's continued efforts in maintaining law and order and international cooperation in this domain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Update (Internal Affairs): TASS reports that searches are being conducted at the home of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 also reports this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Internal Political/Legal): TASS reports the death of Irina Podnosova, the Chairman of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation. This is a significant internal event. TASS confirms the cause of death was cancer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Internal Affairs): Новости Москвы reports on large-scale urban development plans for sports and children's playgrounds to be built in Moscow this year. This is a domestic development initiative. Новости Москвы also highlights "promising sectors for employment" and criticizes the EU for creating a "brain drain" and "new iron curtain." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Internal Law Enforcement/Dissident Activity): ASTRA reports security forces detained Dmitry Kisiev, head of the headquarters of former presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin. This indicates continued suppression of political opposition within RF. ASTRA also reports two foreign nationals detained near FSB building in St. Petersburg for dancing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (RF MoD Corruption): "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports new criminal cases against former Deputy Minister of Defense Pavel Popov for multi-million ruble bribes. This points to ongoing high-level corruption within the RF MoD. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Novorossiysk): TASS reports over 20 apartments damaged by a domestic gas explosion in Novorossiysk. This is a civilian incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Poland General's Death): TASS, Colonelcassad, and Alex Parker Returns all report the death of Polish General Waldemar Skrzypczak, who previously threatened Kaliningrad. RF milbloggers frame this cynically as "one less" enemy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (RF MFA Statements): TASS reports RF MFA states RF significantly expanded list of EU representatives and EU institutions banned from entering Russia in response to EU actions. TASS also reports main statements from RF MFA, including "Western countries continue to use Ukraine as a tool to wage war against Russia." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (FSB Detentions): Военкор Котенок reports FSB detained two Ukrainian special services agents in Russian regions, showing footage of their apprehension and seized materials (chemicals, detonators, firearms), and a confession to planning attacks on railway infrastructure. Операция Z also reports FSB detained three accomplices of Ukrainian special services for preparing terrorist attacks in DNR, Yaroslavl, and Lipetsk Oblasts, showing similar detention footage and confessions related to railway and military infrastructure sabotage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Event (Russian Media Raids): ASTRA reports police and OMON conducted searches at "Baza" publication's editorial office and the editor-in-chief's apartment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Territory (Internal Security): An individual in military-style clothing, possibly a captured RF serviceman, is shown blindfolded and bound. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.4. Recent Additions and Updates

• RF Drone Interceptions (Confirmed): RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed overnight. This is an increase from previously claimed numbers. Военкор Котенок also reports 35 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight. Air Force also confirms 42 Russian UAVs attacked overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sumy KAB Strike (Confirmed): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms Russian KAB strike on Sumy with photo evidence. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Odesa Civilian Casualty (Confirmed): STERNENKO confirms one person injured in Odesa due to Russian UAV attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Cyber Security (Internal): TASS reports the detention of a young man in Novosibirsk for hacking Russian information resources, indicating RF's ongoing efforts in cyber counter-intelligence. TASS also advises "zero trust" principle against cyber fraudsters. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Propaganda (Morning Message): Fighterbomber's "Good morning from the People's Front" message is a standard propaganda piece. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF Estimated RF Losses (New Data): General Staff of UAF provides updated estimated total combat losses for RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Dnipropetrovsk AD Success (Increased): Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reports 14 enemy UAVs shot down overnight, an increase from previous reports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kryvyi Rih Situation (Confirmed Controlled): Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kherson Civilian Casualty (Confirmed): ASTRA reports one woman injured in Kherson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Netherlands Patriot Contribution (Confirmed): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Netherlands will make a significant contribution to US Patriot AD systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Propaganda (UAF Attacks on RF Civilians): TASS reports Miroshnik's claim that the average number of UAF strikes on civilian objects in RF exceeded 400 per day. This is an RF propaganda figure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Milblogger (Drone Commentary): "Два майора" milblogger expresses regret about RF not focusing on drone development pre-war, indicating a recognition of drone's importance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Milblogger (Thermal Imagers Appeal): "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) appeals for thermal imagers for the front, indicating a specific equipment need for RF forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (Bryansk Oblast): AV БогомаZ reports nine Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Воин DV provides video of 35th Army artillery and UAV operators destroying satellite communication equipment, personnel, and strongholds in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (RF MoD Salary Increase): ASTRA reports RF MoD proposes a 7.6% salary increase for military personnel from 1 October 2025. Север.Реалии also reports this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (WarGonzo Frontline Report): WarGonzo provides a front-line summary for the morning of 22.07.25, including maps of Zaporizhzhian, Pokrovskoye, and Donetsk fronts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (Millerovo Airfield Attack Confirmation): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms drones attacked Millerovo airfield in Rostov Oblast, citing Russian media. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (RF Drone Interception Video): "Два майора" publishes video claiming a Russian drone intercepts an enemy UAV carrying drones for interception. This is a highly unusual claim requiring further verification. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• New Event (RF ELINT Success): Colonelcassad publishes video claiming successful liquidation of UAF militants due to radio intercepts, indicating RF ELINT capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast): Confirmed KAB strike on residential building, one 10-year-old child killed, 7 injured. Reported by ASTRA, RBC-Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦. Photos/videos confirm damage and emergency response. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (Samara Oblast, RF): RBC-Ukraine reports drone attack on Samara Oblast, RF. Video footage provided. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• New Event (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): TASS claims destruction of UK-trained UAF unit in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• New Event (Southern Direction): Сили оборони Півдня України reports continued RF aviation strikes, FPV drone use, and Shahed UAV attacks on frontline settlements and UAF positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (Sumy Direction): "Два майора" milblogger publishes FPV drone footage claiming to target a UAF soldier in the Sumy direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (Slovakia Gas): Оперативний ЗСУ reports Slovakia plans to receive up to 100% of its gas from Russia next year due to EU exceptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (Pokrovsk): "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes new video footage claiming to show aftermath of combat and DRG ambush in Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (TASS - Jeffrey Sachs): TASS publishes interview with Jeffrey Sachs criticizing US role in Ukraine conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (Sumy Civilian Casualties): Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports 3 injured, including one child, in Sumy after the night attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (Kharkiv Oblast Settlements): Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports 7 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes during the last day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (Donetsk Kill Zone): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade drone operators created a "kill zone" in Donetsk Oblast, destroying multiple enemy vehicles and personnel with FPV drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (Bryansk Oblast Searches): TASS reports that searches are being conducted at the home of Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (Varachino, Sumy Oblast): Операция Z claims Russian army liberated Varachino in Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Воин DV also reports from this area, claiming 83rd Air Assault Brigade successes. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims Rosgvardia special forces destroyed a German BREM and a Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer in Sumy Oblast, supporting an advance. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• New Event (RF Fortifications, Luhansk): TASS reports RF forces have built new fortifications and observation posts near Chervona Dibrova in LPR, and UAF is actively mining the area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (RF Demining Operations, Kharkiv): Colonelcassad publishes a video showing RF engineering-road platoon personnel engaged in demining operations in "liberated territory" in the Kharkiv direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (RF Spiritual-Moral Culture): Новости Москвы reports that "spiritual and moral culture" will be studied in schools. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (RF Internal Political/Legal): TASS reports the death of Irina Podnosova, Chairman of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation, confirmed by the Supreme Court. STERNENKO and ASTRA also report this. TASS confirms cause of death was cancer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (RF Tactical Drone Operation): MoD Russia publishes video showing "Feniks" (Phoenix) drone in action, including deployment and operation for reconnaissance and potential attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (UAF PSYOPS): 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України releases a video calling on RF soldiers to surrender, offering humane treatment and monetary rewards. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (UAF Domestic Artillery): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that domestic 155-mm Bohdana-BG howitzers have entered service with the 40th Separate Artillery Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (UAF Anti-Corruption): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the suspension of the President of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine due to a criminal investigation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (RF Information Warfare): Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes photo messages claiming that NABU is losing Western support due to Trump's arrival. This is a clear RF disinformation campaign. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (RF Internal Developments): Новости Москвы reports plans for over 800 sports and 1500 children's playgrounds to be built in Moscow this year. This is a domestic development initiative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (RF Internal Environmental): ASTRA reports an emergency situation declared in Tyrnyauz, Kabardino-Balkaria, due to a mudslide. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports a damaged bridge in Kabardino-Balkaria due to floods. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (UAF HIMARS Strike): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports HIMARS strikes on an RF S-300 battery and two radars ("Nebo-M" and "Big Bird") in Belgorod Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• New Event (RF Milblogger Commentary): Старше Эдды (Older Edda) questions whether US Patriot systems can intercept Russian Kinzhals and Iskanders, given alleged Patriot losses. This is an RF milblogger narrative to undermine confidence in Western AD. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (Velyka Novosilka): "Сливочный каприз" publishes photo messages with the caption "22.07.25 Velyka Novosilka - Shevchenko." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (Kyiv Oblast Internal Security): RBC-Ukraine reports a shooting in Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (RF Internal Security/Crimea): TASS reports three detained in Crimea for monument desecration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (RF Internal Security/Tyumen): "Операция Z" reports migrant detained in Tyumen for threatening teenager. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (RF Internal Anti-Corruption): TASS reports billionaire Matsotsky appealed his in absentia arrest in a bribery case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (Krasnolimanskoye Direction): "Два майора" publishes a video showing RF soldiers thanking for aid in the Krasnolimanskoye direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (RF FSB Activity): FSB reports thwarting activities of three suspects aiding Ukrainian special services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (RF Internal Politics/Oppression): ASTRA reports detention of Dmitry Kisiev, head of former presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin's headquarters. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (Chasiv Yar): Colonelcassad provides video claiming destruction of a UAF UAV command post on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (RF Military Recruitment): Alex Parker Returns publishes videos promoting military service with a 3 million ruble signing bonus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (RF MoD Corruption): "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports new criminal cases against former Deputy Minister of Defense Pavel Popov for multi-million ruble bribes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (Poltava Oblast): Office of the Prosecutor General reports large-scale counterfeit perfume/cosmetics manufacturing and sale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (Mykolaiv Oblast): Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV detected in Mykolaiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (RF Internal Security/Donbass): Mash on Donbass publishes a video of an individual claiming a doctor said "She died, don't call here anymore." This appears to be a civilian testimonial from a conflict-affected area, likely leveraged for propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (Andriivka): Военкор Котенок shares civilian testimonial from displaced person from Andriivka, highlighting destruction and humanitarian impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (Novorossiysk): TASS reports a domestic gas explosion in Novorossiysk damaging over 20 apartments. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (St. Petersburg): ASTRA reports two foreign nationals detained near FSB building in St. Petersburg for dancing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (Foreign Vessel Access): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Putin has toughened rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (Ukraine Car Sales): РБК-Україна reports an increase in demand for auto products in Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (US Congress - Epstein): TASS reports US Congress committee canceled meetings due to Democratic lawmakers trying to introduce a bill on publishing Epstein case materials. This is an internal US political event, likely amplified by RF to highlight internal US issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (RF AI Development): TASS reports Russia may get an AI assistant to help people. This is a domestic development initiative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (RF Education Policy): Север.Реалии reports Russian schools will study "Spiritual-Moral Culture of Russia" starting next year. This is a domestic social policy initiative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Event (RF Internal Affairs): Филолог в засаде (Philologist in Ambush) reports being "buried in studying and comparative analysis of several interesting documents of our opponents," which could relate to internal RF intelligence gathering or information warfare efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Strategic Drone/Missile/Aviation Munitions Strikes (Sustained, Adaptive, CRITICAL VOLUME & DEPTH, Now Multi-Warhead, WIDE GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE, Hypersonic Threat Resurfaced, Enhanced Saturation, FAB Use, NEW KINZHAL ON KYIV, Continued KAB use, ADAPTED SHAHDED USE, Confirmed KAB on Kramatorsk, "Harpies" and Krasnoarmeysk UAV C2 targeting, Confirmed "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk): RF continues to demonstrate an extremely high capability for widespread, high-volume, multi-vector aerial attacks. The confirmed use of Tu-95MS strategic bombers for cruise missile launches (24 missiles), alongside continued massed Shahed drone attacks (426 total), and the re-engagement of MiG-31K for Kinzhal ballistic missile use indicates a sustained and robust deep strike capability. Their ability to simultaneously target Northern, Eastern, Central, and significantly Western Ukraine demonstrates coordination and resource availability. The confirmed use of X-101 with cluster munition warheads in Chernivtsi represents an escalation in lethality. The claimed use of FABs on UAF reserves in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates continued air-to-ground precision strike capability. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, confirming the capability to use hypersonic missiles against the capital. Colonelcassad also claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv. MoD Russia video shows Kub loitering munitions, detailing capabilities and warhead size. RF continues to push Shahed UAVs into Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with 4 reportedly heading towards Pavlohrad, and new groups from Black Sea towards Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts, demonstrating an adaptive capability to launch from various vectors and spread out attacks. The confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa indicates RF willingness to hit urban centers without specific military targets, or a failure of precision targeting. The confirmed KAB strike on Sumy and Kramatorsk demonstrates the continued use of this ordnance against civilian centers. Continued KAB and drone attacks on Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, further confirm this pattern. Ballistic missile threat confirmed for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Kotsnews reports on "Harpies" and their kinetic effect on a village, indicating a new, potent loitering munition or PGMs. MoD Russia also claims destruction of a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad's claim of "Geranium" strike in Sloviansk and associated smoke plume indicates continued widespread use of Shaheds against various targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tactical Drone Capabilities (Enhanced, Counter-Drone, FPV Precision): The reported destruction of a UAF D-20 howitzer in Kherson by an RF FPV drone ("Tuman") demonstrates RF's continued and effective tactical integration of drones for precision engagements against UAF artillery assets. The new focus on Rostov Oblast becoming a leader in UAV development, with military tech transfer to civilian applications and expanded production, highlights RF's strategic intent to massively scale its drone capabilities and industrial base. The FPV drone strike on a UAF soldier in Sumy direction and two injured in Belgorod by FPV drone further demonstrates precision targeting capabilities. MoD Russia's video of "Feniks" drone in action further confirms active development and deployment of tactical drones for reconnaissance and kinetic effects. Colonelcassad's video claiming destruction of a UAF UAV command post near Chasiv Yar indicates continued RF counter-drone capabilities. Narodnaya militsiya DNR's claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further highlights counter-drone capabilities. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's drone footage from Chasiv Yar direction indicates continued tactical drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare (Aggressive, Psychological, and Exploitative, Adaptive, Expanding Scope): RF continues to use its military actions to bolster its narrative. Messaging from milbloggers directly aims to terrorize the population and undermine Ukrainian morale, while simultaneously attempting to project overwhelming force and futility of Ukrainian resistance. Dissemination of claimed UAF equipment losses (e.g., Bradley BMP) and drone losses ("Baba Yaga" drones), including the destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit in South-Donetsk direction and a D-20 howitzer in Kherson, and a UAF UAV command post, further reinforce this narrative. RF state media leverages UAF drone attacks on Russian territory to portray Russia as a victim and justify its actions. RF sources promote narratives of internal corruption and social friction within Ukraine (now specifically claiming NABU loses Western "roof" due to Trump). Propaganda focuses on internal RF stability and development. Continued use of historical revisionism. Claims of ground advances (Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Malaya Tokmachka, Starytsia, Varachino) and effective DRG ambushes in contested areas (Pokrovsk) are heavily publicized. RF milbloggers employ cynical/mocking language to demoralize Ukrainian audiences. RF attempts to exploit perceived US weakness in drone tactics. Internal RF information operations counter perceived "traitors." RF channels publish content projecting public support. TASS actively uses claimed UAF POW statements to portray desertion and low morale within Ukrainian ranks. RF is attempting to leverage historical monuments in Moldova to portray Ukraine as allied with Nazis. TASS is attempting to influence US political discourse by amplifying statements like Jeffrey Sachs' comments on Trump and Ukraine. TASS is now actively promoting civilian news, such as Russia's representation at an international music contest, likely to normalize the information environment and divert attention from military operations. The publication of a POW interrogation video by TASS (Yevgeny Popelyshkin) indicates RF's continued and adaptable capability to exploit captured personnel for psychological operations, aiming to sow discord and undermine UAF command effectiveness. RF will continue to leverage civilian testimonials, as seen from Kursk Oblast and Mash on Donbass, and now Andriivka, to portray itself as a victim of Ukrainian aggression and to justify its military actions to its domestic audience. RF is increasingly using cultural and religious narratives to foster internal unity and traditional values, as seen with promotion of Orthodox Christian traditions and news about spiritual-moral culture in schools. TASS claims average of 400 UAF strikes on RF civilian objects per day. The new reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia is likely to be leveraged by RF to show continued European reliance and economic influence. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed to project stability and resilience despite high-level losses. RF milbloggers will likely continue to question the effectiveness of Western AD (e.g., Patriot against Kinzhal). Alex Parker Returns' military recruitment videos demonstrate continued information operations to attract personnel. TASS reporting on detentions for monument desecration in Crimea is part of this narrative. TASS reporting on the appeal of a billionaire in a bribery case also frames the internal legal system as functioning. The FSB's claims of thwarting Ukrainian special services are intended to project internal security effectiveness. The detention of a former presidential candidate's staff member highlights RF's control over its political information space. The new criminal cases against a former Deputy Minister of Defense demonstrate the state's willingness to publicize internal corruption issues. News from Moscow criticizing EU "brain drain" highlights economic information operations. TASS reports on the US Congress cancelling meetings over the Epstein case, a clear amplification of internal US political issues to highlight disarray. The cynical framing of the Polish General's death by RF milbloggers also shows continued aggressive information warfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Artillery Systems (New): Colonelcassad's claim of the use of 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from North Korea indicates a continued and potentially expanding capability to field new or additional artillery systems, potentially supplied by external actors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Border Operations: The identified "Anvar" unit operating in Sumy/Chernihiv border regions demonstrates RF's persistent capability for localized reconnaissance and targeting operations, likely to identify and interdict UAF positions, especially communication and defensive structures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Legal Measures & Internal Control: TASS reporting on the in absentia charging of a blogger for promoting terrorism in Dagestan indicates RF's continued capability and willingness to use legal mechanisms to control internal narratives and suppress perceived extremist content. The Khabarovsk Krai Police reporting on a criminal case indicates continued focus on domestic law and order. The detention of a hacker in Novosibirsk indicates continued focus on cyber security. TASS reports searches at Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko's home, suggesting internal anti-corruption or security operations. "Два майора" discusses sentencing related to illegal migration, indicating internal security focus. The reporting on the death of the Supreme Court Chairman highlights the functioning of the RF legal system. The detentions in Crimea for monument desecration underscore RF's efforts to control historical narratives and public behavior in occupied territories. The detention of a migrant in Tyumen and the appeal of a billionaire in a bribery case indicate continued application of internal law enforcement. The FSB's claims of thwarting Ukrainian special services are intended to project internal security effectiveness. The detention of a former presidential candidate's staff member highlights RF's control over its political information space. The new criminal cases against a former Deputy Minister of Defense for corruption highlight RF's legal mechanisms for internal accountability. Putin's toughening of rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports indicates increased state control over economic interfaces. RF MFA's expanded list of banned EU officials is another example of diplomatic-legal measures. Raids on "Baza" publication further highlight suppression of independent media. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Counter-UAV Capabilities: The successful repulsion of UAV attacks in Rostov-on-Don, Millerovo, Donetsk (Rostov Oblast), and Azov district, as well as three UAVs over Tula Oblast, indicates RF's continued capability to defend against UAF drone incursions, though the scale of each incident is not specified. RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight, including nine over Bryansk Oblast. The FPV drone attack in Belgorod and on Samara Oblast indicates that while RF has AD capabilities, UAF drones can still penetrate and cause damage. Narodnaya militsiya DNR's claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone indicates specific counter-drone successes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Port Operations in Occupied Territories: The continued operation of Mariupol port, even if understaffed, demonstrates RF's capability to restore and utilize critical infrastructure in occupied territories for logistics and economic purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Naval Projection: The escort operation by the Steregushchiy-class corvette "Boykiy" demonstrates RF's capability to project naval power and secure logistical routes beyond its immediate maritime borders, supporting broader geopolitical interests and military sustainment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • ELINT Capabilities: Colonelcassad's video claiming successful UAF liquidation via radio intercepts indicates RF possesses and utilizes effective Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) capabilities for targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Maneuver Capability (Tactical): TASS video showing an RF APC maneuvering in open terrain indicates continued tactical ground force mobility and presence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:
  • Geographic Expansion into Western Ukraine, Multi-Platform Coordination & Diversionary Tactics (CRITICAL - Including Hypersonic Missile & Cluster Munitions, New FAB Use, NEW KINZHAL ON KYIV, Continued KAB use, ADAPTED SHAHDED USE, Confirmed KAB on Kramatorsk, "Harpies" and Krasnoarmeysk UAV C2 Targeting, Confirmed "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk): Expansion of strategic missile strikes deep into Western Ukraine concurrently with Shahed waves, and re-engagement of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles from MiG-31K targeting deep Western Ukraine and now Kyiv, indicates continued and enhanced adaptation of multi-platform, coordinated deep strikes. Confirmed use of X-101 with cluster munition warheads in Chernivtsi is a critical tactical adaptation. Claimed use of FABs on UAF reserves in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast suggests expansion of precision aviation strikes into central Ukraine beyond frontline areas. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025. Colonelcassad's claim of a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv confirms tactical adaptation to target UAF domestic defense production. RF has adapted to use KABs against Sumy, Dobropillia and Kramatorsk. Continued use of strike UAVs against Eastern Dnipropetrovsk (Samarivskyi district), Poltava Oblast, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. Kotsnews reporting on "Harpies" indicates adaptation to new PGM/loitering munitions. MoD Russia's claim of destroying a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad's claim of "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk indicates continued adaptable use of Shaheds across multiple fronts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Increased Shahed Volume on Kyiv, Southern Ukraine, and now Kharkiv: Increase in Shahed UAVs targeting Kyiv, emergence of new Shahed groups in Black Sea towards Southern Ukraine, and new groups towards Kharkiv indicates intent to increase saturation. New Shahed threat for Dnipropetrovsk indicates continued spread of drone activity. Alex Parker Returns explicitly states intent to use "Geraniums" (Shaheds) on the frontline due to increased production. Further Shahed activity now reported heading towards Pavlohrad from Zaporizhzhia Oblast and new groups inbound to Mykolaiv/Odesa, indicating RF's continued adaptive use of UAVs for widespread and sequential attacks. The confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa highlights continued adaptive targeting by RF UAVs against urban centers in the south. Сили оборони Півдня України reports continued Shahed use in the Southern direction. RF milblogger blaming UAF AD for civilian damage in Odesa is a new adaptive information tactic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ballistic Missile Re-engagement on Kyiv and Hypersonic Missile on Western Ukraine and NOW Kyiv: Re-engagement of ballistic missiles on Kyiv and use of Kinzhal hypersonic missile on Ivano-Frankivsk and now Kyiv indicates escalation in munitions used against capital and far-western Ukraine. Latest ballistic missile threat for Zaporizhzhia Oblast indicates continued targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Operations (Exploitative & Adaptive, Internal Focus, Expanding to US Internal Politics): RF adapted its information operations to exploit UAF deep strikes on Moscow, using lifting of airport restrictions as propaganda, while intensifying demoralizing rhetoric. RF state media disseminating video of claimed ground operations and drone intercept claims. RF milbloggers adapting to exploit non-military events for propaganda. RF is adapting its internal propaganda to address perceived issues and maintain support, including through cultural events and promoting civilian services during disruptions. RF is highlighting US statements on Iran to justify its own geopolitical positioning. Introduction of civilian normalization narratives (music contest, sports/playground development, teacher compensation, airport normalization) to divert attention. The rapid dissemination of the captured UAF soldier's statement by TASS demonstrates RF's immediate adaptation of new opportunities for psychological warfare. The deployment of civilian testimonials about alleged UAF shelling in border regions and now from conflict-affected Donbass (Mash on Donbass) and Andriivka is a new adaptation for RF information operations, aimed at generating sympathy and justifying actions to its domestic audience. RF is increasingly using cultural and religious narratives to foster internal unity and support for its operations, including introducing "spiritual and moral culture" in schools. TASS claims average of 400 UAF strikes on RF civilian objects per day. The new reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia is likely to be leveraged by RF to show continued European reliance and economic influence. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be used to project stability and the continuity of the legal system. RF milbloggers actively questioning the effectiveness of Western AD (e.g., Patriot against Kinzhal/Iskander) is a targeted information operation. RF milbloggers' attempts to frame NABU's internal issues as a loss of Western support due to Trump's potential return are a new adaptive information warfare tactic. The immediate use of footage of monument desecration in Crimea for propaganda demonstrates this adaptability. The detention of political opposition figures is a tactic to control the internal narrative. The publicity around high-level corruption cases (Popov) may be an adaptive attempt to project accountability and transparency, or to discredit specific individuals. News from Moscow criticizing EU "brain drain" highlights economic information operations. TASS reports on the US Congress Epstein case (internal US political issue) and the death of Polish General Skrzypczak (cynically framed) demonstrating an adaptive ability to leverage disparate events for propaganda. RF MFA statements reflect continued adaptive diplomatic narratives. FSB detentions and subsequent propaganda videos demonstrate rapid adaptation for internal security and counter-intelligence narratives. Raids on "Baza" media outlet signify adaptive control over internal information. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "Disunity within Ukraine" Narrative: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" attempts to project internal disunity within Russian society by stating "Разрозненность общества у нас зашкаливает, многие ведут себя как рагули из соседней б/украины." Alex Parker Returns posts video related to TCC and Romani people, attempting to sow discord, and is now actively promoting a narrative about UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky having his parents treated in Moscow, aiming to sow distrust and portray him as a "traitor." RF claims Ukraine has run out of cemetery space. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими video discusses how Russia uses propaganda to sow discord within Ukrainian society. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 [Video message] claims to show TCC bus fleeing an attack by Romani people. The dissemination of footage showing a violent TCC detention in Chernih by Colonelcassad indicates RF's continued and immediate adaptation to exploit internal Ukrainian social tensions, particularly related to mobilization, to sow discord and undermine public trust in Ukrainian authorities. TASS's unverified claim of a UK-trained UAF unit being destroyed in Dnipropetrovsk is another example of attempting to undermine confidence in UAF and its Western support. Операция Z's claim about NABU losing Western "roof" due to Trump is a direct adaptive disinformation campaign targeting Ukrainian internal stability. The TASS report claiming Latin American mercenaries fled Alexandrovgrad after one day is an adaptive narrative to discredit foreign fighters and demoralize UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "RF Stability and Development" Narrative (Internal): Mishustin's statements on airport modernization and border crossing point repairs aim to project an image of internal stability and long-term development. News about fining crypto payments in 2026 attempts to project long-term economic planning. TASS reports FIDE allowing Russian women's chess team to compete under FIDE flag. Kadyrov_95 [Video message] documents a religious event in Chechnya, projecting internal stability and cultural/religious harmony. ASTRA reports that Sheremetyevo Airport has labeled as "fakes" videos showing crowds of passengers in terminals after recent disruptions. Colonelcassad reports for the first time in a long time, he used a Russian Railways train. TASS is promoting ease of entry for foreigners into RF without RuID registration. TASS proposing to return compensation to teachers for methodological literature is a continued adaptive measure to address internal social issues and promote stability. The lifting of flight restrictions at Samara airport and Kaluga airport is a further example of RF's adaptive strategy to normalize internal conditions despite ongoing conflict. TASS reporting on Mishustin's grain export meeting and Khabarovsk police's crime report are further examples of RF adapting to promote internal focus and stability. RF MoD proposal for salary increase signals an adaptive measure to maintain military morale and retention. The reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia, while an economic deal, will be framed internally by RF as a sign of continued influence and resilience. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed as a natural occurrence, with emphasis on continuity and smooth succession. News about Moscow's urban development (sports/children's playgrounds) reinforces the normalcy narrative. The mudslide in Kabardino-Balkaria will likely be portrayed as a civil emergency, demonstrating state response, rather than a military-related impact. RF internal security actions (detentions for monument desecration, migrant detention, anti-bribery cases, FSB operations against alleged Ukrainian spies, detention of political opposition, Novorossiysk gas explosion, St. Petersburg dancing detainees) are used to project control and order. Putin's toughening of foreign vessel access is presented as a measure for national security. TASS reports on RF AI development to assist people. Север.Реалии reports on "Spiritual-Moral Culture" in schools, indicating adaptive social engineering. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Artillery Systems: The claimed deployment of 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from North Korea suggests a tactical adaptation to bolster artillery capabilities or compensate for losses, potentially indicating a widening of RF's military supply network. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Persistent Border Reconnaissance: The active deployment of the "Anvar" unit on the Sumy/Chernihiv border, utilizing drones for reconnaissance and targeting, demonstrates a sustained tactical adaptation for identifying and disrupting UAF border defenses. Mykolaiv Oblast reconnaissance UAV also points to this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rapid Counter-UAV Response: The reported successful repulsion of UAV attacks in Rostov-on-Don and other areas, including Tula and Bryansk Oblasts, indicates RF's adaptive capability to rapidly respond to and mitigate drone threats against its territory. The reported destruction of 35 UAVs overnight, including nine over Bryansk Oblast, demonstrates an adaptive, scaled response to UAF drone activity. The reported drone attack on Samara Oblast indicates RF's continued vulnerability to UAF deep drone strikes. Narodnaya militsiya DNR's claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone is a specific example of adaptive counter-drone tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Exploitation of Occupied Infrastructure: The continued operation of Mariupol port, reported by TASS, demonstrates RF's adaptive strategy to quickly integrate and utilize captured Ukrainian infrastructure for its own logistical and economic benefit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sustained Naval Logistics: The escort operation of military cargo vessels through the Baltic Sea, North Sea, English Channel, and Atlantic demonstrates RF's adaptive use of its navy to sustain military operations or transport equipment globally, despite international sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Increased Domestic Drone Production Focus: RF's intent to make Rostov Oblast a leader in UAV development, with military-to-civilian tech transfer and production expansion, represents a significant adaptive strategy to reduce reliance on external supply and scale domestic drone capabilities for both military and civilian use. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Exploiting Localized UAF Tactical Setbacks: RF rapidly propagating claims of UAF surrender in Popov Yar and the capture of Varachino demonstrates an immediate adaptation to exploit perceived UAF tactical setbacks for information warfare. TASS's claim of Latin American mercenaries fled Alexandrovgrad after one day is another example. The claims of Rosgvardia successes in Sumy Oblast against UAF BREM and Gvozdika are also part of this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Acknowledgement of Drone Importance: "Два майора" milblogger's commentary acknowledging the need for pre-war drone focus indicates an internal adaptation in strategic thinking within RF military-affiliated circles regarding the importance of drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Resource Appeals via Milbloggers: "Операция Z" milbloggers' public appeal for thermal imagers indicates an adaptive tactic to leverage public support for military procurement to address specific equipment needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Adaptive Drone Interception (Unverified): "Два майора" claim of a Russian drone intercepting an enemy UAV that was carrying interception drones represents a highly advanced and, if verified, significant tactical adaptation. However, this specific claim requires further corroboration. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • ELINT-driven Targeting: Colonelcassad's claim of UAF liquidation based on radio intercepts indicates an adaptive use of ELINT for tactical targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • WarGonzo Mapping: WarGonzo's rapid publication of updated frontline maps (Zaporizhzhian, Pokrovskoye, and Donetsk fronts) indicates an adaptive information operation to quickly disseminate RF narratives of tactical changes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Aggressive DRG Activity (Pokrovsk): The new video from "Операция Z" and WarGonzo confirming the ambush by RF DRG in Pokrovsk shows an aggressive and adaptive tactical change to conduct high-risk infiltration and direct engagement against UAF vehicles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Fortifications: RF building new fortifications near Chervona Dibrova in LPR signifies an adaptive defensive posture to consolidate gains and secure lines. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Demining Operations: RF engineers actively engaged in demining in Kharkiv direction indicates adaptive efforts to secure and expand logistical routes in newly controlled or contested areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Adaptive Tactical Drone Deployment: MoD Russia's "Feniks in action" video showcases adaptive deployment and operational use of tactical drones for reconnaissance and attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Targeting of UAF UAV C2: Colonelcassad's claim of destroying a UAF UAV command post near Chasiv Yar and MoD Russia's claim of destroying a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction indicate an adaptive targeting strategy against a critical UAF capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • New Loitering Munitions/PGMs: Kotsnews reporting on "Harpies" indicates a new or newly highlighted capability in precision strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Military Personnel Recruitment: Alex Parker Returns publishes videos promoting military service with significant signing bonuses, indicating continued adaptive recruitment strategies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Reconnaissance/Maneuver: TASS video of RF APC maneuvering in open terrain indicates adaptive tactical maneuver and reconnaissance capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Enemy Intentions: RF continues to demonstrate an intent to degrade Ukraine's military-industrial complex and military airfield infrastructure through deep strikes, disrupt logistics, and terrorize the civilian population. On the ground, RF aims to consolidate gains in the East, potentially establish new fronts to stretch UAF defenses, and exploit any localized weaknesses. RF's persistent and multi-faceted information campaign aims to demoralize Ukrainian society, undermine international support, and manage domestic perceptions. RF intends to continue internal security operations to suppress dissent and maintain control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Enemy Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Rail Logistics Disruption: UAF drone attack on Kamianolomni railway station in Rostov Oblast caused a fire and delayed over 50 trains, indicating a significant, albeit temporary, disruption to RF rail logistics. RF is actively working to restore normal operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Air Transport Disruption: UAF drone attacks caused repeated temporary closures of Moscow airports and led to numerous flight cancellations and delays. RF is actively working to restore normal civilian air traffic, exemplified by the recent lifting of restrictions at Samara and Kaluga airports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Infrastructure Vulnerability (Weather): Heavy rainfall in Moscow and a bridge collapse highlight internal infrastructure vulnerabilities to adverse weather, which could indirectly impact military logistics if severe. The mudslide in Kabardino-Balkaria and the damaged bridge further highlights environmental vulnerabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Resource Requirements: RF continues to rely on civilian donations for certain equipment ("vehicle kits" for frontline units), indicating ongoing but manageable sustainment needs. The reported use of North Korean 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" suggests RF is willing and able to source military equipment from international partners, potentially to address specific materiel shortfalls or diversify supply. The announced focus on making Rostov Oblast a leader in UAV development, and Alex Parker Returns' military recruitment efforts, indicate a long-term strategic investment in domestic drone production to ensure sustainment and personnel. The appeal for thermal imagers via milbloggers highlights specific ongoing equipment needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Maritime Logistics (Occupied Territories): The reported operation of Mariupol port indicates RF's ability to establish and utilize maritime logistics in occupied territories, potentially supporting resupply efforts for Southern fronts or for economic exploitation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Global Naval Logistics: The escort operation of military cargo vessels through the Baltic Sea, North Sea, English Channel, and Atlantic demonstrates RF's sustained capability to move military equipment globally via sea, circumventing land-based logistical challenges. Putin's toughening of foreign vessel access may impact commercial maritime logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Impact of UK Sanctions: New UK sanctions against 135 RF "shadow fleet" tankers aim to disrupt RF's oil export revenues, which directly impact RF's ability to finance its war efforts and sustain its military-industrial complex. The long-term impact on fuel supply for military operations will need to be monitored. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Personnel Sustainment: The proposed 7.6% salary increase for military personnel indicates RF's awareness of the need to maintain morale and retention for continued personnel sustainment. High-level corruption cases within the MoD (Popov) could, however, impact morale and efficiency. FSB detentions of alleged Ukrainian agents who confessed to planning railway infrastructure attacks suggest active UAF efforts to disrupt RF logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Components Sourcing (New): RBC-Ukraine reports that the majority of components for a new RF UAV are sourced from China. This points to RF's continued reliance on external supply chains for key military technology, despite efforts for domestic production. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness

• Centralized Deep Strike Coordination: The multi-vector, multi-platform nature of the recent aerial assault demonstrates effective centralized C2 for strategic-level operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Tactical Drone Integration: Continued effective integration of FPV and reconnaissance drones for tactical kinetic effects (e.g., against UAF equipment and personnel and now confirmed D-20 howitzer, and a self-propelled artillery unit), combined with alleged ELINT-driven targeting, indicates effective C2 at the unit level. The FPV strike on a UAF soldier in Sumy direction and the FPV strike in Belgorod further demonstrates localized tactical C2 effectiveness. MoD Russia's video of "Feniks" drone in action suggests effective C2 over tactical drone operations. Colonelcassad's claim of destroying a UAF UAV command post and MoD Russia's claim of destroying a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk further indicates this. Narodnaya militsiya DNR's claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone reinforces effective counter-drone C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Information Operations C2: The rapid and consistent dissemination of RF narratives across various milblogger and state media channels, now including immediate exploitation of POWs, violent TCC detentions, and civilian testimonials (Mash on Donbass, Andriivka), indicates a highly centralized and effective C2 over information operations. The coordinated push of civilian-focused news (music contest, teacher compensation, airport normalization, internal crime reports, grain export meetings, religious propaganda, military salary increases, "spiritual and moral culture" in schools, urban development in Moscow, criticism of EU "brain drain") by TASS and other RF channels indicates well-managed C2 over state media narratives for domestic audiences. The immediate reporting and video dissemination of the Kramatorsk KAB strike by RF milbloggers and state media, framing it as a successful military action despite civilian casualties, indicates agile C2 for propaganda. The rapid framing of the NABU scandal as a loss of Western support, the narrative of "Latin American mercenaries" fleeing, and the targeting of UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky with personal information also indicate adaptive C2 for disinformation. The immediate reporting on detentions for monument desecration and other internal security events also falls under this C2. The cynical framing of the Polish General's death demonstrates coordinated narrative control. RF MFA statements further indicate centralized diplomatic messaging. FSB detentions and associated video propaganda demonstrate agile C2 for counter-intelligence messaging. Raids on "Baza" further demonstrate C2 over internal media. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Security Operations C2: The successful detention of alleged Ukrainian intelligence agents, the internal NABU operation, and the FSB's recent report of thwarting Ukrainian special services suggest effective counter-intelligence C2 within RF. The in absentia charging of a blogger for promoting terrorism, Khabarovsk police report on hooliganism, Novosibirsk hacking arrest, searches at Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Simonenko's home, and the detention of a migrant in Tyumen demonstrates RF's ability to maintain C2 over legal mechanisms for internal security. The swift reporting on repelling drone attacks in Rostov, Tula, and other areas, with updated high interception numbers including Bryansk Oblast, indicates effective C2 for internal air defense and immediate information dissemination. The reporting on the death of the Supreme Court Chairman, emphasizing a smooth transition, projects stability in the judicial C2. The detention of a political opposition figure also demonstrates C2 over political dissent. The ongoing high-level corruption cases against former MoD officials also fall under internal C2. The detention of two foreign nationals for dancing in St. Petersburg and the Novorossiysk gas explosion response show continued internal security vigilance and crisis management. Putin's toughening of foreign vessel access also highlights C2 over border security. FSB detentions of alleged Ukrainian agents planning attacks on railway infrastructure (Военкор Котенок, Операция Z) indicate effective C2 over counter-terrorism. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Adaptation to Civilian Disruptions: RF authorities (e.g., Moscow Mayor, Minister of Transport, Rostov acting governor) demonstrate effective C2 in managing civilian disruptions from UAF drone attacks and adverse weather, including rapid lifting of flight restrictions and coordination of recovery efforts, and planning for future drone development. The declaration of an emergency situation in Kabardino-Balkaria due to a mudslide and the damaged bridge also show C2 responsiveness to internal environmental events. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ground Operations C2: Liveuamap Source reports multiple clashes across various axes, and WarGonzo's updated maps (Zaporizhzhian, Pokrovskoye, and Donetsk fronts) indicate coordinated ground operations C2, even if localized. The claimed advances near Starytsia, the claimed surrender at Popov Yar, and the claimed capture of Varachino, if verified, would point to effective localized ground C2 and targeting. The new video of DRG activity in Pokrovsk further highlights localized, aggressive ground C2. RF's ability to conduct demining operations in Kharkiv direction and build new fortifications in Luhansk also indicate effective engineering C2. Rosgvardia's claimed successes in Sumy Oblast also point to effective localized C2. TASS video of APC maneuvering indicates C2 over tactical ground units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Naval C2: The coordinated escort of military cargo vessels from the Baltic Sea to the Atlantic demonstrates effective C2 for projecting naval power and supporting logistics over extended distances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• New Leadership Appointment: Appointment of Brig. Gen. Hennadiy Shapovalov as new commander of UAF Ground Forces, while a friendly force action, reflects an adaptive C2 in response to operational needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian force posture and readiness

• Air Defense (AD) Posture (Strained but Effective): UAF AD remains fully engaged and highly effective, with 224 targets destroyed and 203 UAVs suppressed, demonstrating a robust response to the multi-domain RF aerial assault. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast's increased interception of 14 UAVs overnight demonstrates sustained local AD effectiveness. This, however, comes at a critical cost to interceptor stockpiles. The engagement across a vast geographic area, including successful interceptions over Chernivtsi and Kyiv, confirms nationwide coverage and readiness. The deployment of mobile AD units (ZU-23 on trucks) in Mykolaiv demonstrates tactical adaptation and continued readiness for drone threats. AD active in Odesa against incoming Shaheds. The commitment from the Netherlands for Patriot AD systems is a positive development for long-term readiness. Latest report of 26 downed/suppressed UAVs and 7 neutralized by REB indicates continued effectiveness against drones (Air Force reports 42 RF drones attacked). Confirmed ballistic missile threat to Zaporizhzhia indicates continued AD readiness requirements. The detection of a reconnaissance UAV in Mykolaiv Oblast indicates continued AD readiness requirements. Ukraine and Denmark are developing an AI-powered drone interceptor. The showcasing of F-16s with support equipment indicates preparations for modern air defense/offense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ground Forces Posture (Defensive & Adaptive, localized offensive capability): UAF ground forces are primarily in a defensive posture, particularly in the Eastern and Southern axes, repelling multiple RF assaults (23 on Kursk/Sumy axis). Training activities (61st OMBr tank crews) indicate continued efforts to maintain combat readiness. Confirmed capture of 5 RF personnel in Kursk Oblast (if verified) indicates successful tactical engagements by UAF forces on the border. GUR's claimed use of ground robots and drone operators conducting deep logistics interdiction demonstrates an adaptive and innovative posture. Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment holding back RF advances in Donetsk Oblast indicates continued localized ground resistance and readiness. UAF 63rd Mechanized Brigade reports liquidation of 33 RF personnel via drone operations, indicating an active offensive posture at the tactical level. The 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade's success in creating a "kill zone" in Donetsk Oblast demonstrates highly effective FPV drone tactical capabilities. The introduction of domestically produced 155-mm Bohdana-BG howitzers further enhances UAF's long-range artillery capabilities. The 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade is actively recruiting drone operators, indicating a continued focus on integrating unmanned systems. The mobilization of approximately 9500 convicts into AFU ranks reflects efforts to address personnel needs. Photos of a UAF soldier with a weapon aim to project professionalism and readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Security Readiness (Active Counter-Intelligence): The large-scale SBU/OGP operation against NABU employees, including the detention of a senior detective suspected of aiding RF, indicates a high state of internal security readiness and a proactive stance against Russian influence. Ukrainian police also helped neutralize pro-Russian hacker network NoName057(16). The suspension of the President of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine highlights continued anti-corruption efforts. The reported shooting in Vasylkiv, while a civilian incident, highlights the need for continued internal security vigilance. The Prosecutor General's Office initiating investigations into attacks on Odesa, Donetsk, and Sumy highlights proactive legal measures. The ongoing NABU information leak investigation, with discovery of sensitive documents, further highlights this focus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Overall Readiness (Sustained by External Aid and Domestic Focus): Ukraine's overall military readiness is sustained by a combination of continued international military aid (e.g., Patriot systems, Canadian tank repairs, Netherlands aid), as well as a critical focus on increasing domestic weapons and drone production, as articulated by President Zelenskyy. The ongoing discussions for additional NATO funding (5% increase) also contribute to long-term readiness planning. High morale and defiance observed. President Zelenskyy's moratorium on baseless business checks aims to improve the internal economic environment for stability and readiness. Participation in Ramstein meetings signifies continued high-level strategic coordination. Chief of General Staff's diplomatic engagement reinforces this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Emergency Services Readiness: The swift and effective response by DSNS (State Emergency Service) personnel, including firefighters, to the extensive civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa and Sumy demonstrates a high level of readiness and capability in managing large-scale emergency situations resulting from RF attacks. The immediate response to the Kramatorsk KAB strike further confirms this readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kryvyi Rih Stability: Local administration confirms controlled situation in Kryvyi Rih. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• PSYOPS Capability: The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade's video appealing to RF soldiers to surrender demonstrates an active and adaptive PSYOPS capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Soldier Welfare Initiatives: Information on pensions for military personnel highlights focus on soldier welfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Recent tactical successes or setbacks

• Tactical Successes:
  • High AD Interception Rate: UAF AD successfully intercepted or suppressed 224 aerial targets by fire and 203 UAVs through REB. Dnipropetrovsk AD shot down 14 UAVs. Latest report confirms 26 UAVs shot down/suppressed and 7 neutralized, out of 42 RF drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Deep Strike on RF Logistics: Successful UAF UAV strike on Kamianolomni railway station in Rostov Oblast, causing significant disruption to RF rail logistics. This has been further confirmed by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Targeted RF AD Destruction: Successful UAF drone strike on an RF S-400 (92N6E MLRS) system in Belgorod Oblast, significantly degrading RF AD capabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports HIMARS strikes on an RF S-300 battery, "Nebo-M" radar, and "Big Bird" radar in Belgorod Oblast, which, if verified, would be a major success against RF AD. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for drone strike, MEDIUM for HIMARS strike).
  • Innovative Tactical Deployments: Confirmed deployment of UAF GUR ground robots in combat (Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions) and successful use of ground drones for medical evacuation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Deep Logistics Interdiction: UAF drones demonstrating capability to cut deep RF logistics (30-40km behind lines) and create kill zones, as seen with the 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade's "kill zone" in Donetsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Counter-battery Success: UAF 44th Artillery Brigade successfully targeted and destroyed an RF 2A65 Msta-B howitzer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Personnel Losses: UAF 63rd Brigade claiming extensive RF personnel losses through drone strikes. UAF General Staff provides updated RF loss estimates. The 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade's FPV drone operations resulted in multiple enemy personnel losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Liquidation of RF Sabotage Groups: DeepState reports liquidation of RF sabotage groups in Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cyber Security Success: Ukrainian police helped neutralize pro-Russian hacker network NoName057(16). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Repatriation: Ukraine returned a teenager forcibly taken from Mariupol to Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kinetic Impact on RF Military Airfield: Successful drone attack on Millerovo military airfield in Rostov Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Response Effectiveness: Confirmed rapid and effective response by State Emergency Service (DSNS) to large-scale civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa and Sumy. Confirmed rapid response in Kramatorsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Netherlands Patriot Contribution: Commitment from the Netherlands to contribute to Patriot AD systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Internal Drone Attack: Confirmed drone attack on Samara Oblast, RF. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade Counter-Drone Ops: Video from the 47th Brigade suggests successful engagements against RF ZALA drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Domestic Artillery Deployment: Domestic 155-mm Bohdana-BG howitzers entering service with the 40th Separate Artillery Brigade. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Corruption Efforts: Suspension of the President of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences for criminal investigation. Continued NABU information leak investigation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Anti-Counterfeit Operations: Successful operation against counterfeit perfume/cosmetics manufacturing in Poltava Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Convict Mobilization: Successful integration of approximately 9500 convicts into AFU ranks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Drone Interceptor Development: Development of AI-powered drone interceptor with Denmark. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • F-16 Project: Showcasing of F-16 and "new project" indicating progress in Western aviation integration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Tactical Setbacks:
  • Widespread Civilian Casualties and Damage: RF deep strikes resulted in 13 confirmed fatalities and numerous injuries across multiple oblasts, including a new fatality in Odesa and injured in Vasylivskyi District, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy. A woman injured in Kherson. A 10-year-old child killed and 7 injured in Kramatorsk due to KAB strike on a residential building. Significant damage to civilian infrastructure confirmed, with images of a burning supermarket ("Kopiika") in Odesa and damaged infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Civilian infrastructure in Dobropillia also hit by drones and KABs. Colonelcassad reports "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk with smoke plumes. RF milblogger claims UAF AD caused civilian damage in Odesa. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • AD Munitions Expenditure: High rate of AD engagements indicates critical expenditure of interceptor munitions, contributing to urgent $6 billion procurement gap. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Continued RF Aerial Penetration: Despite high interception rates, RF missiles and drones continue to penetrate UAF AD, causing kinetic effects, including Kinzhal impacts on Kyiv and Western Ukraine. The KAB strike on Kramatorsk and Dobropillia are clear examples of continued penetration. Ballistic missile threat for Zaporizhzhia. A reconnaissance UAV detected in Mykolaiv Oblast indicates continued RF ISR penetration. RF continues to target UAF UAV C2, as seen in Chasiv Yar and Krasnoarmeysk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Unconfirmed RF Ground Advances: RF claims of opening new front in Kharkiv, breakthroughs in Malaya Tokmachka, capturing Bila Hora, and liberating Varachino, if verified, would represent significant tactical setbacks. RF claim of advances near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast, if verified, would also be a setback. RF claim of UAF surrender in Popov Yar, if verified, is a localized setback. Claims of Rosgvardia successes in Sumy Oblast against UAF BREM and Gvozdika. (CONFIDENCE: LOW for breakthroughs, MEDIUM for new front, MEDIUM for Starytsia, MEDIUM for Popov Yar surrender, MEDIUM for Varachino, MEDIUM for Rosgvardia claims).
  • Increased Risk to Western Aid Corridors: RF's expanded deep strike targeting of Western Ukraine directly threatens key logistics corridors for international military aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Putyvl Community Drone Strike: Civilian infrastructure in Putyvl community (Sumy Oblast) struck by RF drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Drone Losses: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports enemy shooting down more Ukrainian reconnaissance drones. Народная милиция ДНР claims destruction of a "Baba Yaga" drone. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Civilian Friction (Mobilization): Unconfirmed report of "Gypsies attacking a TCC bus" points to social friction. The Chernihiv TCC incident further highlights the potential for public discontent regarding mobilization. The shooting in Vasylkiv, while not directly related, adds to a climate of internal security concerns. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • RF DRG Ambush in Pokrovsk: Colonelcassad video confirms an ambush by RF DRG on a UAF pickup truck in Pokrovsk, with visible injuries. New video from "Операция Z" further corroborates and highlights this aggressive DRG activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • KAB Strike on Sumy: RF strike on Sumy with KABs resulted in damage and 12 civilian injuries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Loss of UAF Robotic Platform: Colonelcassad video shows a UAF robotic platform targeted and likely destroyed by an RF drone. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Civilian Risk in Zaporizhzhia Evacuation: TASS reports late evacuation notices in Zaporizhzhia Oblast from UAF may put civilians in active combat zones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Odesa Civilian Infrastructure Damage: Confirmed civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa due to RF UAV attack, as shown in new photo and video evidence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Loss of D-20 Howitzer (Kherson): TASS reporting on the destruction of a UAF D-20 howitzer by RF FPV drones in Kherson Oblast represents a tactical loss of an artillery piece. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Loss of UAF Artillery (South-Donetsk): Colonelcassad claim of destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit in South-Donetsk direction represents a tactical loss of an artillery piece. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Disputed RF Drone Interception: "Два майора" claim of a Russian drone intercepting an enemy UAV is unverified and highly speculative. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Loss of UAF Unit (Dnipropetrovsk): TASS claims a UK-trained UAF unit was destroyed in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This is an unverified RF claim, but if true, would be a tactical setback. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • UAF Personnel Loss (Sumy Direction): "Два майора" video showing FPV drone strike on a UAF soldier in Sumy direction, with claimed successful engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Loss of UAF UAV C2: Colonelcassad's claim of destroying a UAF UAV command post near Chasiv Yar and MoD Russia's claim of destroying a UAF UAV control post in Krasnoarmeysk direction represents a tactical setback in UAF drone C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Andriivka Civilian Displacement: Civilian testimonial indicates significant destruction and displacement in Andriivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.3. Resource requirements and constraints

• Critical Air Defense Munitions: Most urgent requirement is accelerated resupply of AD interceptors, especially for ballistic and hypersonic missile defense. Reported $6 billion procurement gap highlights this. Netherlands' contribution to Patriot systems and €200M for interceptor drones is positive but needs to be expedited. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Drones and Counter-Drone Capabilities: Ongoing urgent requirement for more drones (FPV and reconnaissance) for UAF units. Complementary REB means are critical. Appeals for drones from units like Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 and STERNENKO underscore this need. The development of an AI-powered drone interceptor with Denmark is a positive long-term step. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Domestic Production Capabilities: President Zelenskyy's directive to increase Ukraine's share of domestic weapons production to 50% within six months indicates strategic shift. The introduction of Bohdana-BG howitzers is a positive step. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• International Financial Support: Continued and increased international financial support is vital, especially for AD systems and maintenance of armored vehicles (Netherlands €125M for F-16 maintenance). NATO's potential additional funding is significant. Participation in Ramstein confirms ongoing support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Logistical Security: Increased targeting of Western Ukraine implies growing need for enhanced security and hardening of logistical corridors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Personnel Motivation/Well-being: Zelenskyy's emphasis on financial motivation suggests recognized need to boost morale and retention. The TCC incidents highlight the need for continued oversight of mobilization practices to maintain public support and morale. Convict mobilization signals a widening of the recruitment pool to address personnel constraints. Focus on military pensions indicates attention to welfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Financial Resources for Defense Procurement: Stated need for $6 billion is a direct and pressing financial constraint. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Aid for Civilian Casualties: Recent KAB strike on Sumy and UAV strike on Odesa and Kherson highlights ongoing need for humanitarian aid and resources for civilian recovery. The KAB strike in Kramatorsk and drone/KAB attacks on Dobropillia and civilian displacement from Andriivka further emphasizes the immediate and critical need for humanitarian aid and civilian protection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Components for Domestic Drone Production: The GUR report on the origin of RF UAV components from China indicates a need for UAF to monitor and potentially disrupt RF's access to critical foreign components for its own domestic production. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and disinformation campaigns

• Russian Federation (RF) Narratives:
  • Overwhelming Force & Ukrainian Weakness: RF amplifying scale of aerial attacks, especially Kinzhal strikes on Kyiv, to create sense of overwhelming force and demoralize Ukrainian population. Claims of UAF equipment and drone losses, now including a D-20 howitzer and a self-propelled artillery unit in South-Donetsk, and a UAF UAV command post. RF also claiming UAF surrender in Popov Yar and capture of Varachino. RF MoD claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight, including nine over Bryansk Oblast. WarGonzo provides updated maps to illustrate claimed RF advances. Confirmed KAB strike on Kramatorsk and Dobropillia used to portray overwhelming force. Claim of UK-trained UAF unit destroyed in Dnipropetrovsk aims to undermine confidence in UAF and Western aid. FPV drone strike on UAF soldier in Sumy direction highlights RF tactical lethality. MoD Russia's "Feniks in action" video promotes tactical drone prowess. Kotsnews reports on "Harpies" hunting, portraying advanced kinetic capabilities. Rosgvardia's claimed successes in Sumy Oblast against UAF BREM and Gvozdika are also part of this. RF claims Izium, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk hit military objects. RF milbloggers like Старше Эдды actively question the effectiveness of Western AD (e.g., Patriot vs. Kinzhal/Iskander) to undermine confidence in Western military aid. Alex Parker Returns' military recruitment videos aim to project strength and opportunity. Narodnaya militsiya DNR's claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone further reinforces this. TASS video of RF APC maneuvering reinforces ground capability. Colonelcassad's "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Sloviansk will be used as evidence of effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Victimhood: RF state media leveraging UAF drone attacks on Russian territory to portray Russia as victim of "Ukrainian aggression" and justify actions. Amplified by TASS reporting on memorial for 5-year old boy in Kursk. The new civilian testimonial from Kursk Oblast and Mash on Donbass, and Andriivka, is a direct effort to portray RF as a victim of Ukrainian aggression and elicit sympathy. TASS reports average of 400 UAF strikes on RF civilian objects per day. FPV drone attack in Belgorod, injuring two, further fuels this narrative. RF milblogger blaming UAF AD for civilian damage in Odesa is a direct information operation to shift blame and portray UAF as reckless. FSB reports and videos of alleged Ukrainian agents caught planning railway attacks further fuel this victimhood narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Ukrainian Disunity/Corruption: RF sources heavily promoting narratives of internal corruption (NABU scandal – now claiming NABU loses Western "roof" due to Trump) and social friction (e.g., TCC and Romani incident, Syrsky's parents being treated in Moscow). The release of the POW interrogation video is a direct attempt to amplify perceived internal disunity and undermine UAF command credibility by portraying commanders as abusive and soldiers as demoralized. The dissemination of footage showing a violent TCC detention in Chernih by Colonelcassad is a direct and immediate RF information operation to exacerbate internal social tensions regarding mobilization in Ukraine, aiming to erode public trust and readiness. TASS's claim of Latin American mercenaries fled Alexandrovgrad after one day is intended to discredit foreign fighters and demoralize UAF. Bloomberg article by Mark Champion, amplified by TASS, on corruption potentially disrupting European weapon supplies to Ukraine, is a direct information operation to sow doubt about aid effectiveness. RF milbloggers will leverage the NABU info leak investigation to further these narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Stability & Development: Propaganda focuses on internal stability, economic resilience, and infrastructural development to project normalcy. TASS promotion of Russia's participation in international cultural events (Intervision) aims to normalize the perception of Russia for both domestic and international audiences. TASS proposal to return compensation to teachers for methodological literature is an ongoing effort to promote internal stability and public welfare, presenting RF as a caring state. The lifting of flight restrictions at Samara airport and Kaluga airport is further used to project normalization. The reporting on Mariupol port operations, emphasizing its functionality despite staffing levels, is another attempt to normalize the situation in occupied territories and project RF's administrative capacity. RF internal reporting on criminal cases (billionaire Matsotsky), economic meetings (grain exports), and internal security operations (Bryansk Vice-Governor, illegal migration, monument desecration in Crimea, migrant detention in Tyumen, FSB operations, detention of Nadezhdin's staffer, Popov corruption case, Novorossiysk gas explosion, St. Petersburg dancing detainees) also serve to project a focus on stability and governance. RF milbloggers' sharing of Orthodox Christian traditions also works to foster internal unity, reinforced by state initiatives to study "spiritual and moral culture" in schools. Rostov Oblast's focus on UAV development signals innovation and future stability. RF MoD proposed salary increase for military personnel aims to project positive conditions for service. The reporting on Slovakia's gas imports from Russia, while an economic deal, will be framed internally by RF as a sign of continued influence and resilience. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed to project stability and resilience despite high-level losses. News about Moscow's urban development (sports/children's playgrounds) reinforces the normalcy narrative. Putin's toughening of foreign vessel access is presented as a measure for national security. TASS reports on RF AI development to assist people, furthering the narrative of internal development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Historical Revisionism: Continued use of historical narratives to justify actions and demonize Ukraine. RF leveraging monument in Moldova to portray Ukraine as allied with Nazis. Басурин о главном publishes "DAY in HISTORY" content, likely to reinforce historical narratives. The cynical framing of Polish General Skrzypczak's death by RF milbloggers, emphasizing his "inadequate level of hatred for Russia," is a new adaptive form of historical revisionism and propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "RF Tactical Success": Claims of ground advances (Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Malaya Tokmachka, Starytsia, Varachino), effective DRG ambushes (Pokrovsk), confirmed artillery destruction by FPV drones (Zaporizhzhia, South-Donetsk), and successful downing of UAF drones over Tula and Bryansk Oblasts heavily publicized. Colonelcassad's claim of ELINT-driven UAF liquidation and destruction of a UAF UAV C2 highlights RF intelligence successes. New video of aggressive DRG activity in Pokrovsk is being used to highlight RF tactical successes. RF demining operations in Kharkiv and new fortifications in Luhansk are also highlighted as successes. Rosgvardia's claimed destruction of a German BREM and Gvozdika also promotes tactical success. Narodnaya militsiya DNR's claim of destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone is a new example. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cynical/Demoralizing: RF milbloggers frequently employ cynical or mocking language. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" post about Odesa residents being "happy from liberation" is an example of cynical/mocking language. The cynical framing of the Polish General's death ("Ещё один не явился на войну. Соскочил. Быть добру!") is a new, potent example of demoralizing language. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Exploiting Perceived US Weakness: RF milbloggers attempting to exploit perceived "slow adoption" of advanced drone tactics by US military. TASS amplifies commentary critical of US support for Ukraine, as seen with Trump's comments on Iran. TASS publishing the Jeffrey Sachs interview, criticizing US refusal to prevent conflict, is a direct attempt to undermine US credibility and support for Ukraine. TASS reporting on the US Congress Epstein case, while an internal US issue, is used to highlight perceived disarray within US politics, potentially to undermine US influence. Operatyvnyi ZSU (Ukrainian source, but reporting on RF narrative) highlights RF's narrative that Ukraine risks becoming "Biden's Afghanistan" for Trump. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal RF Dissident Counter-Narrative: RF milbloggers actively countering perceived "traitors." Филолог в засаде's self-description implies counter-intelligence or information warfare against "opponents." (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Projection of Public Support: RF channels publishing content designed to project widespread public support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Exploiting UAF POW Narratives: TASS actively using claimed UAF POW statements to portray desertion and low morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Satirical Content on Azerbaijani Leadership: Some RF milbloggers using satirical content targeting Azerbaijani leadership, as seen with ASTRA's report on Z-bloggers criticizing Sergey Markov. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
  • Global Power Dynamics: TASS is exploiting Donald Trump's statements about potential US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities to highlight US aggression and implicitly justify Russia's own actions against Ukraine as a response to perceived Western threats. TASS reporting on Israeli advisor's negative comments regarding Gaza ceasefire further demonstrates RF's intent to highlight global disunity and perceived Western hypocrisy/ineffectiveness. TASS's reporting on RF MFA's expansion of banned EU officials reinforces a narrative of strong retaliation against perceived EU aggression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Acknowledgement of Drone Importance: "Два майora" milblogger's commentary acknowledging the need for pre-war drone focus indicates an internal discussion and propaganda effort aimed at framing past strategic decisions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Addressing Equipment Needs: The appeal for thermal imagers from "Операция Z" is a dual-purpose message: to solicit aid and to portray the military as resourceful and supported by the public. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zelenskyy Characterization: Военкор Котенок characterizes Zelenskyy as "monopolizing power" and becoming a "dictator," implying that he is driven by a need for "victories/spectacles" for the populace. This is a direct RF information operation to discredit Ukrainian leadership. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NABU "Lost Western Roof" Narrative: Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) explicitly pushes the narrative that NABU is losing Western "cover" due to Trump's arrival. This is reinforced by TASS leveraging a Bloomberg article about corruption in Ukraine potentially disrupting weapon supplies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukrainian (UAF) / Pro-Ukrainian Narratives:
  • German Domestic Preparedness: RBC-Ukraine's photo messages about Germany preparing for a "Putin attack" by potentially drafting women/pensioners for logistics duties appears to be a UAF or pro-Ukrainian information operation. This is likely intended to underscore the broad threat posed by Russia to European security and to encourage continued/increased international support for Ukraine, potentially by emphasizing that the conflict has wider implications and could demand greater sacrifices from NATO allies. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Highlighting RF Atrocities: The immediate release of video and photo evidence by RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU of civilian infrastructure damage and ongoing firefighting operations in Odesa (including "Kopiika" supermarket), and RBC-Ukraine's reporting on casualties in Sumy from KABs (including a child), aims to highlight RF's targeting of civilians and generate international condemnation and support. The immediate and widespread reporting on the Kramatorsk KAB strike, emphasizing the child fatality, is a critical component of highlighting RF atrocities and reinforcing calls for international support. STERNENKO's statement "росіяни заслуговують тільки на смерть" reflects and amplifies the public outrage at these atrocities. RBC-Ukraine's reporting on drone and KAB attacks on Dobropillia also serves this purpose. The Prosecutor General's Office opening investigations into these attacks reinforces this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UK Sanctions Effectiveness: Reporting on new UK sanctions against RF's "shadow fleet" tankers is a narrative promoting the effectiveness of international pressure against RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emphasis on RF Losses: UAF General Staff provides regular updates on estimated RF combat losses, aiming to boost friendly morale and demonstrate effectiveness. The 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade's video of "kill zone" operations effectively demonstrates RF losses. The reporting on HIMARS strikes against RF AD in Belgorod (if verified) will be a key narrative for UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Call for Donations: STERNENKO's call for donations ("Ранок треба починати із кави/чайку та донату на русоріз!") and his drone raffle are consistent messaging themes to generate public support and funding for the war effort. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Internal Drone Attack: RBC-Ukraine reports on the drone attack on Samara Oblast, RF, which serves to highlight UAF long-range strike capabilities and RF vulnerability. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Commemoration of Fallen Soldiers: Daily minute of silence promotions by UAF General Staff, Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, Operatyvnyi ZSU, and KMVA reinforce national unity and remembrance, fostering morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Highlighting RF Components Sourcing: RBC-Ukraine's report on RF UAV components being largely from China is likely intended to pressure international partners to tighten export controls and sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF PSYOPS for Surrender: The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade's video appealing to RF soldiers to surrender, offering incentives, is a direct psychological operation aimed at weakening RF morale and increasing defections. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Highlighting RF Internal Issues: STERNENKO's immediate reporting on the death of RF Supreme Court Chairman Podnosova, using stark language, aims to highlight perceived internal vulnerabilities or instability within Russia. The reporting on the searches at Bryansk Vice-Governor's home also highlights internal issues. The raids on "Baza" media outlet will be highlighted as suppression of dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Economic Reform: Zelenskyy's moratorium on business inspections, reported by RBC-Ukraine, promotes a narrative of economic reform and support for business. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAV Recruitment: DeepState's recruitment video for drone operators emphasizes active defense and recruitment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Convict Mobilization: RBC-Ukraine's reporting on convict mobilization in AFU highlights an adaptive approach to personnel needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ukraine-Denmark Drone Interceptor: RBC-Ukraine highlighting joint AI-powered drone interceptor development showcases innovation and international cooperation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Netherlands Aid for AD/F-16: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting on specific Netherlands aid package highlights continued strong international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pope Dialogue with ROC: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting on Pope's desire to restore dialogue with Russian Orthodox Church highlights diplomatic complexities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Trump Threats to RF: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting on Trump threatening RF due to his wife is a narrative to influence public opinion, likely designed to generate support from US political spheres. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Car Market Rebound: RBC-Ukraine's report on increased demand for auto products in Ukraine projects economic resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ramstein Meeting Participation: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ highlighting high-level participation in Ramstein meeting, reinforcing message of strong international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Professionalism of UAF: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України publishing photos of UAF soldiers with weapons and positive captions aims to project professionalism and capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Diplomatic Engagement: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ showcasing Chief of General Staff's address to foreign diplomats emphasizes Ukraine's active diplomatic front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • F-16 Project: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine showcasing F-16 and "new project" is a strong narrative of technological advancement and Western military integration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public sentiment and morale factors

• Ukraine:
  • Resilience & Determination: Despite casualties and damage, public and official sentiment remains determined. The emotional language used by "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" regarding Odesa's suffering reflects high public anger and defiance. The death of a child in Kramatorsk will undoubtedly intensify public anger and resolve against RF aggression, but also potentially cause grief and trauma. Daily moments of silence and commemorations reinforce collective resolve. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Concerns over Mobilization: Unverified report of "TCC bus attack" and the verified violent TCC detention in Chernihiv point to growing social friction and a potential for public backlash against mobilization efforts. The shooting in Vasylkiv, while an internal crime, adds to the general public concern about security. While convict mobilization is a necessity, its public reception needs monitoring. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Internal Security & Trust: NABU scandal and G7 ambassadors' concern could negatively impact public trust. The suspension of the President of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences also impacts trust, but anti-corruption efforts are generally positive. Zelenskyy's moratorium on business inspections aims to bolster trust and support from the business community. The new NABU information leak findings will further strain public trust. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Motivation for Military Personnel: Zelenskyy's emphasis on financial motivation suggests recognized need to boost morale and retention. Appeals for equipment like those from the "Rubizh" brigade and STERNENKO's drone raffle indicate public engagement in support of military needs. The PSYOPS video offering incentives for surrender aims to lower RF morale and indirectly boost UAF morale by highlighting potential RF weakness. Focus on military pensions aims to boost morale and retention. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • High Morale: Visual evidence supports high morale among Ukrainian military personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Impact of KAB/UAV Strikes: KAB strikes on urban centers like Sumy and UAV attacks on Odesa and now Kramatorsk and Dobropillia will continue to cause fear and distress and potentially strain local resources. The visible damage in Odesa, amplified by local mayor photos and new video evidence, and civilian casualties in Odesa, Sumy (including a child), and Vasylivskyi District, and Kherson will negatively impact local public morale and trust. Civilian testimonial from Andriivka further emphasizes civilian suffering. RF milblogger blaming UAF AD for Odesa civilian damage attempts to sow public distrust in UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Risk to Civilians in Zaporizhzhia: RF reporting on late evacuation notices could generate negative public sentiment towards UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Stability in Key Cities: Statements like "Kryvyi Rih: Situation Controlled" aim to reassure local populations amidst attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Economic Indicators: Increased car sales indicate some economic resilience and return to normalcy. Fluctuations in currency exchange rates will be monitored for public impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia:
  • Controlled Narrative: Public sentiment heavily influenced by state-controlled media emphasizing RF "victories." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Impact of UAV Attacks: Reports of airport closures, train delays, and internal incidents from UAF drone attacks likely cause inconvenience and frustration. TASS report on memorial for 5-year old boy in Kursk aims to generate sympathy. The new civilian testimonial from Kursk Oblast and Mash on Donbass, and Andriivka, is specifically designed to reinforce public sentiment of victimhood and justify continued conflict. RF MoD's elevated UAV interception numbers aim to reassure the public. The drone attack on Samara Oblast, if widely reported internally, could cause concern among the local populace but will likely be framed as a successful AD operation or a minor incident by state media. FPV drone attack in Belgorod, injuring two, could also create local concern. FSB detention videos reinforce perceived threats and state protection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mixed Morale Signals (Military): Interview with 35th Marine Brigade soldier criticizing leadership suggests underlying discontent. The proposed military salary increase aims to positively influence morale. Calls for equipment from channels like Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 and "Операция Z" indicate specific needs, potentially reflecting shortfalls that impact morale if unaddressed. Alex Parker Returns' recruitment videos are attempting to boost personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Frictions: Public backlash in Sevastopol against Kadyrov's portrait and VK blocking of critical groups indicate underlying social and political frictions. The searches at Bryansk Vice-Governor's home highlight ongoing internal issues. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman, while framed as natural, could cause some internal uncertainty, though state media will quickly move to reassure. Detentions in Crimea for monument desecration, the migrant detention in Tyumen, and the detention of Nadezhdin's staffer highlight internal tensions and state control. High-level corruption cases (Popov, Matsotsky) may generate public cynicism. The detention of foreign nationals for dancing in St. Petersburg and the raids on "Baza" media outlet indicate strict social control and suppression of dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Normalization of Losses: Continued reporting on military casualties normalizes losses for the Russian public. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Impact of Arrests on Public Opinion: Detentions of alleged Ukrainian intelligence agents, hackers, and those involved in illegal migration are used to demonstrate internal security effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Normalization of Foreign Entry: TASS report on simplified entry for foreigners without RuID registration aims to portray normalcy and openness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emphasis on cultural achievements (Intervision, "spiritual and moral culture" in schools, new sports/children's playgrounds in Moscow) attempts to boost public morale and divert from war-related stress. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Focus on Domestic Issues: TASS reporting on legislative proposals (e.g., teacher compensation), criminal cases, and economic meetings (grain exports) signals attention to public welfare, aiming to maintain a sense of stability and address domestic concerns amidst ongoing conflict. Novorossiysk gas explosion will be managed as a domestic civil emergency. TASS report on RF AI development aims to project positive social development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mariupol Port Operations: Reporting on the operational status of Mariupol port, aiming to demonstrate successful integration of occupied territories and improve public perception of RF's administrative effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Social Trends: The report on high sales of micro-earphones during exams suggests common social trends continue in Russia, implicitly reinforcing normalcy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Environmental Challenges: Mudslide in Kabardino-Balkaria and the damaged bridge may cause localized distress but will likely be managed as a civil emergency. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.3. International support and diplomatic developments

• Support for Ukraine (Strong, but Resource-Dependent):
  • Continued Military Aid: 29th Ramstein meeting yielded commitments for 5 Patriot systems (Germany/US), Canadian financial support, ammunition rounds, and drone funding. UK launching 50-day campaign. Norway ready to provide additional AD funding. Netherlands will provide a significant contribution to US Patriot systems, including €200M for interceptor drones and €125M for F-16 maintenance. Ramstein participation by UAF Minister of Defense highlights this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Engagement: Ukraine actively engaging in international diplomacy. Chief of General Staff addressing foreign diplomats indicates active diplomatic efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Negotiation Developments: Zelenskyy's confirmation of new negotiations with Russia in Istanbul on 23/24 July indicates active diplomatic efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Accountability Focus: Ukraine's continued push for Special Tribunal reinforces diplomatic objective. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Concerns over NABU Scandal: G7 Ambassadors expressing alarm over NABU scandal could impact future aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • German Domestic Preparedness Narrative: The RBC-Ukraine photo message regarding Germany's preparedness potentially being tied to a "Putin attack" is a pro-Ukrainian narrative aimed at bolstering international resolve and support. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • New UK Sanctions: The UK's new sanctions on RF's "shadow fleet" tankers demonstrate continued and adaptive international pressure on Russia, specifically targeting its economic lifeblood. This action reinforces international support for Ukraine through economic warfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kramatorsk KAB Strike: The confirmed child fatality in Kramatorsk will likely galvanize international condemnation against RF and bolster calls for increased aid and accountability. The Prosecutor General's Office opening investigations into these attacks further solidifies the case for international action. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF UAV Components from China: GUR's report on RF UAV components sourced from China could be used diplomatically to pressure China and other suppliers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • AI Drone Interceptor Development: Joint development of an AI-powered drone interceptor with Denmark strengthens international technological cooperation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • F-16 Project: The F-16 project video highlights international cooperation and advanced military technology transfer. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Support for Russia (Limited, but Stable):
  • Iran Military Cooperation: Continued military cooperation between Iran and Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Economic Cooperation: Hungary's discussions with Serbia on oil pipeline for Russian oil indicate continued economic cooperation. TASS reporting on Mishustin meeting regarding grain exports also highlights economic cooperation efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • China's Stance: China's statement about "decisive measures" can be interpreted by RF as continued diplomatic backing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Dialogue (Selective): Russia maintains diplomatic engagement with "friendly countries" and is willing to engage in negotiations with Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Resilience to Sanctions: Russia managing impact of sanctions and adapting to economic pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Speculation on Putin-Trump Meeting: Continued speculation in RF media about Putin-Trump meeting projects future high-level diplomatic relevance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Iran's Stance on US Negotiations: Iran's statement to TASS that it is "not ready for direct negotiations with the US" reinforces narrative of united front against perceived Western pressure. TASS is amplifying Donald Trump's statements about potential US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, likely to frame the US as aggressive and unpredictable on the international stage. RBC-Ukraine's report that Iran is open to indirect negotiations with the US on a new nuclear deal provides a nuanced perspective on Iran's diplomatic stance, potentially indicating a degree of flexibility despite public rhetoric, and will be monitored for implications on broader geopolitical alignments. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cultural Diplomacy: RF's promotion of participation in international music contests (Intervision) and religious traditions (Orthodox Christianity) can be viewed as an attempt to project an image of normalcy and cultural engagement on the international stage, potentially aiming to soften its image. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • North Korean Military Aid: The reported use of 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from North Korea (DPRK) indicates that RF continues to draw upon a limited but persistent network of international military support, circumventing sanctions and expanding its materiel base. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Disagreement (Gaza): TASS reporting on Israeli advisor's rejection of the 25-country FM statement on Gaza ceasefire illustrates ongoing international disunity, which RF can leverage to portray a fracturing Western-led order. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Slovakia Gas Deal: Slovakia's reported plan to receive up to 100% of its gas from Russia next year demonstrates a continued, albeit exceptional, economic link with an EU member, which RF will leverage for propaganda about its resilience to sanctions and influence in Europe. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Jeffrey Sachs Interview: TASS publishing the interview with Jeffrey Sachs criticizing the US role serves to legitimize RF narratives within the international information space, particularly in academic and anti-Western circles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kazakhstan-Russia Law Enforcement Cooperation: The meeting between Kazakhstan and Russian Federation law enforcement officials demonstrates continued bilateral cooperation in internal security, reinforcing regional ties and counter-terrorism efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Bloomberg Article on Corruption: TASS leveraging Bloomberg's article on corruption in Ukraine potentially disrupting European weapon supplies indicates a direct and adaptive diplomatic effort to undermine aid and support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Pope Dialogue with ROC: Pope's reported desire to restore dialogue with Russian Orthodox Church indicates a potential avenue for soft diplomacy, though heavily influenced by the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Retaliation: RF MFA's expansion of banned EU officials indicates continued diplomatic retaliation against EU support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Exploitation of US Internal Politics: TASS reports on the US Congress Epstein case, demonstrating RF's willingness to amplify internal US political issues to portray disunity or dysfunction in the West. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cynical Exploitation of Adversary's Death: RF milbloggers' cynical commentary on the death of Polish General Skrzypczak, who threatened Kaliningrad, indicates a willingness to exploit any opportunity for psychological warfare and to reinforce the narrative of "enemies" being removed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most likely enemy courses of action (MLCOA)

• Sustained Multi-Domain Deep Strike Campaign: RF will continue its high-volume, multi-vector aerial assault using Shaheds (42 planned for this morning), cruise missiles (from Tu-95MS), and ballistic missiles, including Kinzhals, against critical infrastructure and urban centers across Ukraine, with a particular focus on Kyiv and Western logistics hubs. The aim is to deplete UAF AD, disrupt logistics, and exert psychological pressure. Expect sustained Shahed activity in Southern Oblasts, including Mykolaiv and Odesa, and further probes into Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava. Expect sustained aviation munitions threats to Donetsk (including Dobropillia, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk) and Sumy oblasts, including continued KAB strikes on urban centers. The confirmed damage and casualties in Odesa, Sumy, Kramatorsk, and Dobropillia suggest continued willingness to directly target and terrorize urban populations in the South, Northeast, and East with UAVs and KABs. Ballistic missile threats will continue, as seen in Zaporizhzhia. Expect continued use of advanced loitering munitions/PGMs (e.g., "Harpies"). RF will continue to target UAF UAV control posts (e.g., Krasnoarmeysk direction, Chasiv Yar). RF will continue to attempt to shift blame for civilian casualties onto UAF AD (e.g., Odesa Shkolny airfield incident). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Continued Ground Attrition in Donbas: RF will maintain relentless, attritional ground assaults across the Eastern axis (Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Chasiv Yar, Velyka Novosilka), likely attempting to leverage any perceived advances (Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Poltavka) to achieve tactical breakthroughs, even if localized. The claimed UAF surrender in Popov Yar signals continued RF pressure in this area. WarGonzo maps indicate continued focus on these areas. The sustained and aggressive DRG activity in Pokrovsk indicates RF will continue to probe and attempt localized gains in this sector. RF will continue to reinforce positions with fortifications and engineering efforts (e.g., Chervona Dibrova). Expect continued efforts to disrupt UAF UAV C2 (Chasiv Yar). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Probing and Shaping Operations on Northern/Southern Axes: RF will continue reconnaissance-in-force, localized ground assaults, and drone/KAB strikes in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts (including areas like Starytsia, and claimed liberation of Varachino), and along the Zaporizhzhia front (Malaya Tokmachka, Kamyanske), to fix UAF reserves, identify weaknesses, and create conditions for potential larger-scale offensives. Expect continued drone reconnaissance and targeting by units like "Anvar" in border regions of Sumy and Chernihiv, and tactical FPV drone strikes against UAF artillery and equipment, as demonstrated in Kherson and South-Donetsk directions, supported by ELINT. Expect continued FPV drone targeting of individual UAF personnel in border areas (e.g., Sumy direction), and FPV strikes in Belgorod Oblast. MoD Russia's "Feniks" video suggests continued tactical drone operations. WarGonzo maps will likely reflect continued localized changes on these fronts. RF will continue demining operations in areas like Kharkiv. Expect continued reconnaissance UAV activity in Mykolaiv Oblast. Rosgvardia will continue tactical pushes in Sumy Oblast. TASS video of APC maneuvering indicates continued tactical ground force deployments. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Intensified Information Operations: RF will continue to heavily propagandize its claimed successes (ground gains, AD effectiveness, Kinzhal strikes, D-20 destruction, Mariupol port operations, UAF surrender in Popov Yar, capture of Varachino, high UAV interception rates over its own territory, ELINT successes, destruction of UK-trained UAF unit, FPV strike on UAF soldier, successful tactical drone operations, destruction of UAF UAV C2, Rosgvardia successes in Sumy, "Baba Yaga" drone destruction), exploit internal Ukrainian issues (NABU scandal – now framed as losing Western support due to Trump, mobilization friction amplified by TCC incidents, POW narratives, and civilian testimonials from border regions and conflict zones like Donbass and Andriivka, and civilian casualties from UAF attacks in RF territory), and frame itself as a victim of "Ukrainian aggression" to manage domestic sentiment and influence international perceptions. Expect RF to leverage US statements on Iran and internal US political issues (Epstein case), and international disagreements on conflicts like Gaza to further its narrative of Western aggression and disunity. Expect an increase in normalization propaganda (e.g., cultural events, economic updates, social welfare proposals like military salary increases, airport normalization, internal crime reports, grain exports, religious traditions, addressing internal hacking issues, Slovakia gas deal, focus on "spiritual and moral culture" in schools, urban development in Moscow, death of Supreme Court Chairman, Moscow news on employment sectors and "brain drain", RF AI development) for domestic consumption to counter war fatigue. The immediate use of a captured UAF soldier for propaganda indicates this will be a continued and adaptive tactic. TASS will continue to disseminate analyses from figures like Jeffrey Sachs to influence international discourse. RF will also continue to try and discredit Ukrainian leadership (e.g., Zelenskyy as dictator, Syrsky as "agent"). RF will continue using the Bloomberg article about Ukrainian corruption to undermine Western aid. RF will continue to leverage events like the death of Polish General Skrzypczak for cynical propaganda. RF MFA statements will continue to frame Western actions as hostile. FSB detention videos will be used to demonstrate counter-terrorism effectiveness. Raids on "Baza" media outlet will be framed as internal law enforcement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Negotiation as Information Warfare: RF will likely use the upcoming Istanbul negotiations primarily as an information operation to signal a willingness for dialogue while continuing kinetic operations, potentially aiming to portray Ukraine as unwilling or unreasonable if talks falter. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Increased Counter-UAV Measures in RF Territory: RF will continue to attempt to intercept UAF drones over its territory, with reported success rates for smaller UAVs, as demonstrated by the recent repelling of attacks in Rostov and other areas, including Tula and Bryansk Oblasts. RF will also prioritize domestic UAV development (e.g., Rostov Oblast) to enhance its own capabilities and counter-capabilities, while continuing to rely on foreign components (e.g., from China). The drone attack on Samara Oblast will reinforce RF's focus on internal AD and drone development. RF will continue to highlight counter-drone successes (e.g., "Baba Yaga" destruction). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Continued Use of Diverse Artillery Systems: RF will likely continue to deploy and utilize a variety of artillery systems, including potentially newly sourced ones like the North Korean 107-mm MLRS "Type-75", to sustain fire support for ground operations and target UAF positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sustained Naval Logistics and Presence: RF will continue to use its naval assets for global logistics, including escorting cargo vessels, and maintaining a presence in strategic waterways to support its military and economic interests. Putin's toughening of foreign vessel access will impact commercial shipping. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Security Operations: RF will maintain focus on internal security, including counter-intelligence (FSB reports, St. Petersburg detentions), anti-corruption efforts (e.g., Bryansk Vice-Governor searches, Popov case, Matsotsky case), and migration control (Tyumen migrant detention). The focus on the death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be to demonstrate the legal system's stability. RF will also continue to suppress political opposition (Nadezhdin's staffer detention) and enforce control over occupied territories (Crimea monument desecration detentions). RF authorities will manage civilian incidents like the Novorossiysk gas explosion. RF MFA will continue to retaliate against EU actions. RF will continue to conduct raids on independent media. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5.2. Most dangerous enemy courses of action (MDCOA)

• Coordinated Multi-Front Offensive with Strategic Deep Strike (CATACLYSMIC): RF conducts a synchronized, large-scale ground offensive on multiple axes, most dangerously combining a major thrust into Sumy and/or Kharkiv Oblasts (committing operational reserves) with an exploitation of the claimed breakthrough in Malaya Tokmachka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). This offensive would be coordinated with a sustained, exceptionally high-volume multi-domain deep strike campaign designed to fully deplete UAF AD and interdict all major Western aid logistics corridors, aiming for a rapid collapse of UAF defensive lines on multiple, non-contiguous fronts. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Chemical/Biological Weapon Use (ESCALATORY, LOW PROBABILITY): Although low probability, the RF claim of Ukraine using toxic chemicals to the OPCW could be a flag for a false flag operation, where RF could use such weapons and blame Ukraine, leading to a massive escalation. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
• Targeted Assassination/Disruption of UAF Leadership (HYBRID): Exploiting internal security concerns (NABU scandal) or leveraging DRG capabilities, RF conducts a high-profile assassination or significant disruption operation against key UAF military or political leadership (e.g., General Shapovalov, President Zelenskyy, now specifically Syrsky based on new RF information ops) to sow chaos and cripple C2. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
• Targeted Strike on High-Value Military Airfields/Bases in Ukraine (ESCALATORY): Given the confirmed UAF deep strike on Millerovo and reported HIMARS strikes on RF AD assets, RF may retaliate with a concentrated, high-precision strike using Kinzhals and cruise missiles against a key UAF military airfield or command center in Ukraine, beyond simply a "defense industrial complex" target, aiming to significantly degrade UAF air or C2 capabilities. This MDCOA would be distinct from general deep strikes by focusing on a singular, high-impact military target. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Exploitation of Civilian Evacuation Issues: RF attempts to exploit any perceived UAF missteps in civilian evacuation, particularly in Zaporizhzhia, to create humanitarian crises or demoralize the population. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Direct Naval Interdiction of Maritime Aid/Trade: RF Black Sea Fleet directly interdicts or attacks commercial vessels in the Black Sea, escalating naval warfare and severely impacting Ukraine's maritime trade and aid routes. This would be a high-risk move with significant international repercussions but could be an MDCOA if RF seeks to completely choke off Ukrainian maritime access. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)

5.3. Timeline estimates and decision points

• Immediate (Next 24-48 hours):
  • Aerial Strikes: High probability of continued, albeit potentially smaller, RF missile and drone strikes (42 Shaheds launched overnight). UAF AD will remain heavily engaged. Expect sustained Shahed activity in Southern and Eastern Oblasts, particularly targeting Odesa and Mykolaiv regions. Expect aviation munitions threats to Donetsk (including Dobropillia, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk) and Sumy, including continued KAB strikes on urban centers. Ballistic missile threats will continue for exposed areas like Zaporizhzhia. Reconnaissance UAV activity in Mykolaiv is likely. Expect continued use of advanced loitering munitions/PGMs (e.g., "Harpies"). RF will continue to target UAF UAV control posts (e.g., Krasnoarmeysk direction, Chasiv Yar).
  • Ground Probes: RF will continue probing attacks and reconnaissance-in-force on all axes, especially Kharkiv (including Starytsia, and claimed Varachino), Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia, to confirm or deny claimed tactical gains (e.g., Popov Yar, Malaya Tokmachka). This includes continued border operations by units like "Anvar" and tactical FPV drone strikes against UAF assets (e.g., artillery), possibly driven by ELINT. Expect continued FPV drone targeting of individual UAF personnel in border areas (e.g., Sumy direction), and FPV strikes in Belgorod Oblast. MoD Russia's "Feniks" video suggests continued tactical drone operations. WarGonzo maps will likely show continued tactical engagements. Expect continued aggressive RF DRG activity, particularly in areas like Pokrovsk. RF will continue demining and fortification efforts in contested areas. Continued engagements in Velyka Novosilka and Krasnolimanskoye directions. Rosgvardia will continue tactical pushes in Sumy Oblast. Tactical ground movements by RF APCs are expected.
  • Negotiations: The announced Istanbul negotiations on 23/24 July are a critical diplomatic event to monitor for any shifts in RF posture or demands. Decision points for UAF will revolve around the tenor and outcome of these talks.
  • Cyber Attacks: Continued RF cyber activity is likely given the neutralization of the NoName057(16) network, indicating continued intent to disrupt UAF infrastructure. RF will continue internal cyber security operations against perceived threats (e.g., Novosibirsk arrest).
  • Retaliatory Strikes: Increased probability of RF retaliatory deep strikes following the Millerovo airfield attack and reported HIMARS strikes on RF AD.
  • Information Operations: RF will continue to use POW statements and other narratives to try and undermine UAF morale. Expect increased normalization propaganda from RF state media and a continued focus on domestic social policy, including military salary increases and "spiritual and moral culture" in schools, urban development in Moscow, and criticism of EU "brain drain." Expect immediate and widespread dissemination of content related to TCC incidents and civilian testimonials from border regions and conflict zones (Andriivka). Expect RF to continue highlighting its control and functionality of occupied infrastructure like Mariupol port. Expect RF to amplify cultural and religious narratives. Expect RF to continue influencing international discourse via comments on US foreign policy (e.g., Jeffrey Sachs interview, Epstein case), and political deaths (Polish General Skrzypczak). Expect RF to continue pushing the narrative of high UAF attacks on RF civilian objects. Expect RF to leverage the Slovakia gas deal as a propaganda point. RF will continue to try and discredit Zelenskyy and Syrsky. RF milbloggers will continue to question the efficacy of Western AD. The death of the Supreme Court Chairman will be framed as a natural, smooth transition. RF internal security actions (Crimea monument desecration, Tyumen migrant detention, high-level bribery cases, FSB reports, detention of political opposition, Novorossiysk gas explosion, St. Petersburg dancing detainees, "Baza" raids) will be highlighted.
  • RF Counter-UAV: RF will continue to actively repel UAF drone attacks on its territory (e.g., Tula and Bryansk Oblasts) and will report successes for domestic consumption. The Samara Oblast drone attack indicates this will remain a key focus. RF will highlight successful counter-drone operations (e.g., "Baba Yaga" destruction).
• Short Term (Next 3-7 days):
  • Offensive Escalation: If RF assesses UAF AD capabilities are sufficiently degraded or reserves are fixed, they may commit additional ground forces for a larger-scale offensive in Kharkiv/Sumy or attempt to exploit the claimed Malaya Tokmachka breakthrough more fully.
  • Western Aid Impact: The rate of Western aid delivery, particularly AD munitions, will be critical. Decision points for international partners to accelerate deliveries will be influenced by the ongoing intensity of RF strikes. Netherlands' specific aid package for drones and F-16 maintenance will begin to show effect.
  • Impact of UK Sanctions: Monitor initial RF response and market adjustments to the new UK sanctions on "shadow fleet" tankers; assess immediate impact on oil exports.
  • RF Drone Development: Monitor initial developments related to Rostov Oblast's plans for UAV development and production, and the continued sourcing of components (e.g., from China).
  • RF Equipment Needs: Monitor the impact of milblogger appeals for equipment like thermal imagers on RF supply chains.
  • Internal RF Political Repercussions: Monitor the aftermath of the Supreme Court Chairman's death, including succession and any unexpected internal political shifts. Monitor developments in the Bryansk Vice-Governor case and high-level MoD corruption.
  • Internal Ukrainian Mobilization: Monitor public reception and effectiveness of convict mobilization and ongoing TCC operations.
• Medium Term (Next 1-2 weeks):
  • Sustainment of Operations: Both sides will face significant sustainment challenges, particularly for munitions and personnel. UAF's ability to rapidly scale domestic production (e.g., Bohdana-BG howitzers) and secure additional international funding will be critical. The Ukraine-Denmark AI drone interceptor development signifies a long-term strategic investment.
  • Information Environment Volatility: The information environment will remain highly contested, with both sides intensifying propaganda and counter-propaganda efforts.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

• RF Northern Grouping Reserves (Priority 1): Detailed and verifiable intelligence on the composition, strength, and staging of RF operational reserves in Belgorod/Kursk Oblasts. Collection Requirement (CR): IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT assets focused on training areas, logistics nodes, and troop concentrations in RF border regions. Emphasis on identifying new unit deployments or activation.
• Verification of RF Breakthrough at Malaya Tokmachka (Priority 2): Definitive, real-time ground truth regarding the claimed RF tactical breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. CR: IMINT (high-resolution satellite imagery, commercial satellite intelligence), UAV ISR, forward deployed HUMINT for ground observation and contact reports. Specific focus on troop movements, defensive line integrity, and BDA of claimed objectives.
• BDA on Western Logistics and Kyiv (Priority 3): Comprehensive BDA of all kinetic impacts in Western Oblasts and Kyiv, specifically assessing damage to rail/road networks, storage facilities, and identified defense industry sites. CR: Post-strike IMINT (drone and satellite), HUMINT (EOD reports, local civilian networks), OSINT (social media, local news).
• RF AD/REB Effectiveness & Intentions (Priority 4): Assess the full extent of RF AD/REB capabilities to counter UAF drones, especially reconnaissance assets. Understand the strategic intent behind RF's continued high-volume deep strikes, including target prioritization and adaptation. CR: SIGINT on RF AD/REB emissions, COMINT for RF C2 communications, exploited UAF drone telemetry data, BDA of RF AD/REB systems by UAF strikes.
• Internal RF Military Morale (Priority 5): Collect more widespread intelligence on RF personnel morale beyond isolated incidents, particularly within units actively engaged in offensive operations. CR: HUMINT (POW interrogations, defectors), OSINT (milblogger discussions, soldier social media activity), COMINT (intercepted internal communications).
• Verification of RF DRG Activity in Pokrovsk (Priority 6): Confirm the extent and success of claimed RF DRG ambushes or infiltration in Pokrovsk, particularly given the new video. CR: HUMINT (local reports, captured personnel interrogations), IMINT (surveillance footage, post-incident analysis).
• Damage Assessment of Millerovo Airfield (Priority 7): Detailed BDA of damage to Millerovo military airfield (runways, aircraft, hangars, fuel depots). CR: IMINT (satellite, commercial satellite), HUMINT (local reporting, insider information).
• RF Response to Millerovo Attack (Priority 8): Monitor RF military and political responses to the Millerovo airfield attack, particularly any indications of escalation in retaliation. CR: OSINT (RF official statements, milbloggers), SIGINT (RF C2 communications).
• Verification of Russian drone capabilities (Priority 9): Identify specific types and capabilities of RF drones observed in the Colonelcassad video (e.g., "BABA-YAGA" details, "Kozak," "Paladin," "URAL-4320" targeting). CR: Exploited drone footage analysis, wreckage analysis, technical intelligence.
• Confirmation of UAF Robotic Platform Destruction (Priority 10): Verify the destruction of the UAF robotic platform claimed by Colonelcassad. CR: Post-engagement BDA, analysis of RF drone footage, UAF unit reports.
• Verification of RF "Harpy" Drone (Priority 11): Identify the characteristics, capabilities, and operational deployment of the "Harpy" drone referenced by Kotsnews. CR: Analysis of video footage, RF milblogger commentary, and technical intelligence on similar platforms.
• Monitoring of Southern UAV Activity (Priority 12): Track new Shahed UAV groups from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Pavlohrad and from the Black Sea towards Mykolaiv/Odesa Oblasts. CR: Air Force updates, local reporting, AD engagement data, SIGINT on UAV control signals.
• Assessment of civilian presence in Zaporizhzhia combat zones (Priority 13): Verify RF claims regarding delayed UAF evacuation efforts and the risk to civilians in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. CR: HUMINT (local civilian reports), OSINT (local media, social media monitoring), UNHCR/aid organization reports.
• Odesa Damage Assessment (Priority 14): Conduct immediate BDA of civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa following the UAV attack, including the reported supermarket fire. CR: Local reporting, satellite imagery, public photographic/video evidence.
• Verification of North Korean MLRS Type-75 Deployment (Priority 15): Confirm the presence, quantity, and operational deployment of North Korean 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" systems within RF forces, particularly in frontline areas. CR: IMINT (satellite, tactical UAV imagery), HUMINT (POW interrogations, local sources), OSINT (RF milblogger content, identification of unique munition types).
• Monitoring of Aviation Munitions Threats to Donetsk/Sumy (Priority 16): Track specific types and frequency of aviation munitions (e.g., KABs, unguided bombs) being used against Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. CR: Air Force updates, local reporting, BDA, SIGINT on RF aviation activity.
• RF POW Exploitation (Priority 17): Monitor all RF official and milblogger channels for further releases of POW interrogations or statements. Analyze content for new intelligence regarding UAF unit dispositions, morale, or C2 issues. CR: OSINT (TASS, RF milbloggers), HUMINT (cross-reference with POW interrogations).
• RF Border Unit Activities (Priority 18): Increased focus on drone reconnaissance and ground activities by RF units operating in the Sumy and Chernihiv border regions (e.g., "Anvar" unit), specifically their targeting priorities (UAF positions, communication infrastructure, civilian areas). CR: IMINT (UAV imagery, satellite), SIGINT (RF unit communications), HUMINT (local reports, cross-border intelligence).
• Iran's Stance on US Negotiations (Priority 19): Monitor the implications of Iran's stated willingness for indirect negotiations with the US on a new nuclear deal. CR: OSINT (international media, diplomatic statements), HUMINT (diplomatic intelligence).
• Chernihiv TCC Incident Verification (Priority 20): Investigate the violent TCC detention incident in Chernihiv reported by Colonelcassad, verify details, and assess the broader impact on public sentiment and recruitment. CR: HUMINT (local sources), OSINT (local social media and news, cross-reference with UAF official statements).
• Verification of D-20 Howitzer Destruction (Priority 21): Verify the RF claim of destroying a UAF D-20 howitzer in Kherson Oblast via FPV drone. CR: UAF unit reports, BDA, IMINT (UAV imagery analysis from both sides).
• RF Civilian Testimonial Verification (Priority 22): Investigate and verify the claims made by RF citizen Zorin Vladimir Nikolaevich regarding UAF shelling in Rubanyshchina, Kursk Oblast, and the claims in the Mash on Donbass video and from Andriivka. CR: HUMINT (local sources on the Ukrainian side of the border), IMINT (satellite imagery for damage assessment), OSINT (cross-reference with local Ukrainian news/reports regarding shelling in that area).
• German Preparedness Narrative (Priority 23): Monitor the origin and propagation of the RBC-Ukraine photo messages regarding German preparedness for a "Putin attack" involving women and pensioners. Assess whether this is an isolated piece of propaganda or part of a wider campaign. CR: OSINT (media analysis, social media tracking across various languages), HUMINT (diplomatic and public sentiment monitoring in Germany).
• Verification of RF Advance near Starytsia, Kharkiv Oblast (Priority 24): Confirm the veracity and extent of RF ground advances claimed by TASS near Starytsia. CR: IMINT (high-resolution satellite imagery, UAV ISR), HUMINT (local ground reports, UAF unit reports).
• Mariupol Port Activity Assessment (Priority 25): Monitor the volume and nature of cargo traffic through Mariupol port. CR: IMINT (satellite imagery of port activity, vessel tracking), OSINT (local shipping news, commercial port data).
• Impact of UK Sanctions on RF Maritime Logistics (Priority 26): Assess the immediate and projected impact of new UK sanctions on RF "shadow fleet" tankers on RF oil exports and overall maritime logistics. CR: OSINT (shipping intelligence reports, market analysis, news on tanker movements), HUMINT (industry contacts).
• RF Naval Activity in Baltic/North Sea/Atlantic (Priority 27): Monitor RF naval deployments and transit activities in international waters for frequency, vessel types, and cargo. CR: IMINT (satellite imagery, maritime surveillance), OSINT (naval tracking data, shipping news).
• Verification of UAF Surrender in Popov Yar (Priority 28): Obtain independent verification of the RF claim of UAF servicemen surrendering in Popov Yar. CR: HUMINT (local reports, POW interrogations if available), IMINT (satellite imagery of the area, UAV footage if available from UAF sources).
• Damage Assessment in Vasylivskyi District, Zaporizhzhia (Priority 29): Conduct detailed BDA of civilian damage and assess the nature of the "enemy attack" in Vasylivskyi District. CR: Local reporting, UAF unit reports, satellite imagery.
• Verification of Ukrainian SPA Destruction (South-Donetsk) (Priority 30): Verify the RF claim of destroying a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit in South-Donetsk direction. CR: UAF unit reports, BDA, analysis of RF drone footage.
• Kherson Civilian Casualty Assessment (Priority 31): Assess the nature and extent of civilian injuries in Kherson. CR: Local reporting, medical reports.
• RF Cyber Activity (Novosibirsk) (Priority 32): Investigate the details of the hacking incident in Novosibirsk and any potential links to state-sponsored activity or broader cyber campaigns. CR: OSINT (cybersecurity reports, dark web monitoring), HUMINT (if sources available).
• RF Milblogger Commentary on Drones (Priority 33): Monitor discussions and appeals related to drone technology and procurement from influential RF milbloggers (e.g., "Два майора", "Операция Z") for insights into RF operational priorities and material needs. CR: OSINT (milblogger channels, forums).
• RF Narrative on Civilian Object Strikes (Priority 34): Monitor the propagation and impact of Miroshnik's claim about daily UAF strikes on RF civilian objects, and assess for any escalatory rhetoric or justification for further RF actions. CR: OSINT (RF state media, milbloggers, public opinion monitoring).
• Verification of RF Drone Interception of Other Drones (Priority 35): Investigate "Два майора" highly unusual claim of a Russian drone intercepting an enemy UAV carrying interception drones. CR: Detailed analysis of the provided video for authenticity and technical feasibility, cross-referencing with any known capabilities, and seeking independent technical verification. (HIGH priority for this specific claim due to its novel nature and potential implications).
• Assessment of RF Military Salary Increase (Priority 36): Monitor RF public and military sentiment regarding the proposed salary increase for military personnel. Assess potential impact on recruitment, retention, and morale. CR: OSINT (RF social media, military forums), HUMINT (if available).
• Kramatorsk KAB Strike BDA (Priority 37): Conduct immediate and detailed BDA of the Kramator KAB strike, assessing damage to the residential building and surrounding area, and verifying the number of casualties. CR: Local reporting, satellite imagery, public photographic/video evidence, UAF emergency services reports.
• Samara Oblast Drone Attack Verification (Priority 38): Verify the extent of the drone attack on Samara Oblast, RF, and assess any damage or operational impact. CR: IMINT (satellite imagery), OSINT (local RF news, social media), HUMINT (if available).
• Verification of UK-trained UAF Unit Destruction (Priority 39): Independently verify the RF claim of a UK-trained UAF unit being destroyed in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. CR: UAF unit reports, HUMINT (POW interrogations, if available), IMINT (battlefield analysis).
• Slovakia Gas Deal Implications (Priority 40): Monitor the specific details and long-term implications of Slovakia's planned increased reliance on Russian gas. CR: OSINT (economic news, diplomatic reports, energy market analysis).
• RF FPV Strike on UAF Soldier (Sumy Direction) (Priority 41): Analyze the FPV drone footage provided by "Два майора" for precise location, UAF soldier's status, and broader implications for RF tactical FPV capabilities in the Sumy direction. CR: Analysis of video, UAF unit reports from the area, HUMINT.
• Verification of Varachino Liberation (Priority 42): Independently verify the RF claim of liberating Varachino in Sumy Oblast, and the claimed successes of the 83rd Air Assault Brigade in the area, and Rosgvardia's claimed successes. CR: IMINT (satellite imagery, UAV reconnaissance), HUMINT (local reports, UAF unit reports from the area).
• RF Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor Searches (Priority 43): Monitor developments regarding the searches at the Bryansk Oblast Vice-Governor's home. CR: OSINT (RF news, official statements), HUMINT (if available).
• RF Demining and Fortification Efforts (Priority 44): Monitor the scale and location of RF demining operations in Kharkiv Oblast and fortification construction in Luhansk Oblast. CR: IMINT (satellite, UAV), HUMINT (local reports, UAF observations).
• RF UAV Component Sourcing (Priority 45): Investigate the extent of RF reliance on Chinese components for new UAVs and identify potential vulnerabilities for interdiction. CR: OSINT (technical analyses, trade data), SIGINT (on supply chains), HUMINT (if available).
• RF Supreme Court Chairman Death (Priority 46): Monitor RF state media and internal discussions regarding the death of Irina Podnosova for any unexpected implications for RF's internal stability or legal system. CR: OSINT (RF news, social media, political commentary).
• Dobropillia KAB/Drone Attack BDA (Priority 47): Conduct detailed BDA of civilian infrastructure damage in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, following RF drone and KAB attacks. CR: Local reporting, satellite imagery, public photographic/video evidence.
• HIMARS Strike on RF AD in Belgorod (Priority 48): Obtain independent verification and BDA of the claimed HIMARS strike on RF S-300 battery and radars in Belgorod Oblast. CR: IMINT (high-resolution satellite imagery), SIGINT (RF AD emissions analysis), HUMINT (local reports, UAF BDA).
• Vasylkiv Shooting Incident (Priority 49): Monitor for any further information regarding the shooting incident in Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast, to determine if it has any broader security implications beyond a civilian crime. CR: OSINT (local news, police reports).
• Velyka Novosilka/Shevchenko Activity (Priority 50): Monitor for continued reports of activity in the Velyka Novosilka - Shevchenko area. CR: OSINT (milblogger reports, local news), IMINT (UAV/satellite).
• RF High-Level Corruption Cases (Priority 51): Monitor the development of the criminal cases against former Deputy Minister of Defense Pavel Popov and billionaire Matsotsky for insights into internal RF power dynamics and resource allocation. CR: OSINT (RF state media, legal reporting), HUMINT (if available).
• RF Political Opposition Suppression (Priority 52): Monitor the detention of Dmitry Kisiev and any subsequent actions against opposition figures to understand the extent of internal political control. CR: OSINT (independent media, human rights groups).
• UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky's Parents Narrative (Priority 53): Monitor the propagation of the RF narrative regarding Syrsky's parents in Moscow. Assess its impact on UAF morale and any necessary counter-information measures. CR: OSINT (RF milbloggers, UAF internal discussions), HUMINT (if available).
• UAF UAV Command Post Destruction Verification (Priority 54): Verify the RF claim of destroying a UAF UAV command post on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar and in Krasnoarmeysk direction. CR: UAF unit reports, BDA, IMINT (UAV imagery analysis from both sides).
• Krasnolimanskoye Direction Activity (Priority 55): Monitor for continued RF military activity and aid requirements in the Krasnolimanskoye direction. CR: OSINT (milbloggers), HUMINT.
• Mykolaiv Oblast Reconnaissance UAV (Priority 56): Continue monitoring for RF reconnaissance UAV activity in Mykolaiv Oblast and assess its specific intent (e.g., target acquisition for kinetic strikes, battlefield assessment). CR: Air Force reports, AD engagement data, SIGINT on UAV control signals.
• Donbass Civilian Testimonial (Priority 57): Assess the source and broader context of the Mash on Donbass video containing a civilian testimonial, and analyze how it is being leveraged in RF information operations. CR: OSINT (media analysis, social media tracking).
• Andriivka Civilian Testimonial (Priority 58): Assess the source and broader context of the civilian testimonial from Andriivka and analyze how it is being leveraged in RF information operations. CR: OSINT (media analysis, social media tracking).
• Novorossiysk Gas Explosion (Priority 59): Monitor the aftermath of the gas explosion in Novorossiysk for any wider implications for internal security or infrastructure. CR: OSINT (local news, official reports).
• St. Petersburg Detentions (Priority 60): Monitor the detention of foreign nationals for dancing near FSB building for any broader implications regarding internal security measures or public control. CR: OSINT (local news, human rights reports).
• Foreign Vessel Access Rules (Priority 61): Assess the practical impact of Putin's toughened rules for foreign vessels entering Russian ports on maritime trade and potential for economic leverage. CR: OSINT (shipping industry reports, economic analysis).
• Ukraine Auto Market Trends (Priority 62): Monitor the trend of increased demand for auto products in Ukraine for insights into civilian economic activity and potential resilience despite conflict. CR: OSINT (economic reports, market analysis).
• US Congress Epstein Case (Priority 63): Monitor RF state media and milblogger amplification of the US Congress Epstein case for insights into RF information warfare targeting US political stability. CR: OSINT (RF media analysis).
• RF AI Development (Priority 64): Monitor RF announcements and developments related to AI integration in civilian applications for potential dual-use implications. CR: OSINT (RF tech news, official statements).
• RF Education Policy ("Spiritual-Moral Culture") (Priority 65): Monitor the implementation and public reception of the "Spiritual-Moral Culture of Russia" subject in schools for insights into RF social engineering and internal cohesion efforts. CR: OSINT (RF education news, social media).
• Polish General's Death (Priority 66): Monitor RF milblogger and state media reaction to the death of Polish General Skrzypczak for insights into RF psychological operations and narrative control. CR: OSINT (RF milbloggers, state media).
• RF MFA Statements (Priority 67): Monitor RF MFA statements for diplomatic signaling, particularly regarding expansion of banned EU officials and characterization of the conflict. CR: OSINT (RF MFA official channels, state media).
• FSB Detentions of Ukrainian Agents (Priority 68): Monitor subsequent RF reporting on FSB detentions of alleged Ukrainian agents, particularly any further confessions or details regarding planned attacks on railway or military infrastructure. CR: OSINT (RF state media, milbloggers).
• Russian Media Raids ("Baza") (Priority 69): Monitor the aftermath of the raids on "Baza" publication and editor-in-chief's apartment for insights into RF internal media suppression and freedom of speech. CR: OSINT (independent Russian media, human rights groups).
• Odesa Shkolny Airfield Incident (Priority 70): Investigate the RF milblogger claim that UAF AD caused civilian damage during the Shkolny airfield attack in Odesa. Conduct BDA to confirm impact locations and assess damage causation. CR: UAF BDA, IMINT (satellite imagery, local photo/video analysis), HUMINT (local reports).

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize ISR on Critical Ground Axes and RF Airfields/Drone Production:
   • Immediately re-task all available IMINT and SIGINT assets to monitor RF forces in Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts for signs of massing and offensive preparations, especially given claims of a new Kharkiv front and advances near Starytsia and Varachino, and Rosgvardia claimed successes in Sumy Oblast.
   • Direct all tactical UAV assets and ground reconnaissance elements to the Malaya Tokmachka sector in Zaporizhzhia and the Popov Yar area in Donetsk to confirm or deny the claimed RF breakthroughs/surrenders and assess the integrity of UAF defensive lines. Allocate additional ISR to Velyka Novosilka and Krasnolimanskoye directions.
   • Allocate additional ISR to Pokrovsk direction to verify claimed RF DRG activity and UAF counter-operations, given new video evidence.
   • Conduct immediate IMINT and OSINT on Millerovo military airfield to assess battle damage and operational impact, following up on the latest RF report of repelled attacks in the area. Monitor any new RF facilities related to UAV development in Rostov Oblast and potential drone production in Samara Oblast, including their component supply chains (e.g., from China).
   • Increase ISR on Sumy and Chernihiv border regions, with specific attention to RF drone reconnaissance flights and ground activity by units like "Anvar," to identify potential infiltration or shaping operations. Monitor reconnaissance UAV activity in Mykolaiv Oblast.
   • Verify destruction of UAF D-20 howitzer in Kherson and the claimed self-propelled artillery unit in South-Donetsk and assess the broader impact of RF FPV drone capabilities against UAF artillery. Analyze the FPV drone footage of the UAF soldier in Sumy direction for tactical implications. Investigate the FPV drone attack in Belgorod.
   • Monitor Mariupol port activity to understand its role in RF logistics and economic exploitation.
   • Enhance maritime surveillance of RF naval activities in international waters, particularly those involving cargo vessels. Assess the impact of Putin's new rules for foreign vessel access.
   • Conduct BDA in Vasylivskyi District, Zaporizhzhia, and investigate the nature of the attack causing civilian casualties.
   • Verify civilian casualties in Kherson.
   • Conduct immediate and thorough BDA of the KAB strike in Kramatorsk, Sumy, and Dobropillia, and assess implications for RF targeting patterns. Specifically investigate the Sloviansk "Geranium" (Shahed) strike BDA.
   • Verify RF claim of destruction of a UK-trained UAF unit in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
   • Monitor RF demining efforts in Kharkiv Oblast and fortification construction in Luhansk Oblast to understand current and future RF operational objectives.
   • Obtain independent verification and BDA of the claimed HIMARS strike on RF S-300 battery and radars in Belgorod Oblast.
   • Verify destruction of UAF UAV command post on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar and in Krasnoarmeysk direction.
   • Identify and analyze "Harpy" drone capabilities and deployment patterns.
   • Verify and analyze RF claims of destroying "Baba Yaga" drones, to understand RF counter-drone tactics.
   • Monitor tactical ground movements of RF armored personnel carriers.
2. Expedite AD Munitions & Capabilities:
   • Urge international partners to immediately accelerate deliveries of all committed AD interceptors, with specific emphasis on systems capable of countering Kinzhal and other ballistic threats. Leverage the critical $6 billion funding gap in discussions.
   • Prioritize deployment of newly committed Patriot systems, including those contributed by the Netherlands, to protect key logistics hubs in Western Ukraine and high-value targets in Kyiv.
   • Implement mobile AD and REB solutions for frontline areas and vulnerable logistics routes to mitigate the increased Shahed and tactical aviation threat. Expedite development of AI-powered drone interceptors.
   • Enhance AD coverage and readiness in Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts given new Shahed threats and confirmed damage and casualties in Odesa.
   • Reinforce AD capabilities in Sumy Oblast against KAB threats, as demonstrated by recent strikes.
   • Leverage the deployment of domestically produced Bohdana-BG howitzers for counter-battery fire against RF aviation assets and C2 nodes involved in KAB strikes.
   • Accelerate F-16 training and integration, leveraging the new project with the Air Force, to enhance air defense and offensive capabilities.
3. Harden and Disperse Critical Assets:
   • Review and update plans for the rapid dispersal and hardening of mobile AD systems, C2 nodes, and critical logistics assets, particularly in Kyiv and Western Ukraine, in anticipation of continued precision strikes.
   • Enhance physical security and deception measures around known military-industrial complex sites (especially those involved in drone production), military airfields, and key civilian infrastructure to mitigate the risk of targeted Kinzhal or cruise missile strikes.
   • Increase hardening and readiness of civilian infrastructure in Eastern oblasts (e.g., Kramatorsk, Dobropillia, Sloviansk) against continued KAB and artillery strikes.
4. Strengthen Internal Security & Public Trust:
   • Conduct a transparent internal investigation into the NABU scandal to reassure international partners and Ukrainian public about commitment to rule of law. Actively refute RF disinformation about NABU losing Western support, and RF claims about UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky. Address the new facts of information leakage from NABU immediately and transparently.
   • Develop robust counter-propaganda campaigns to address RF narratives of Ukrainian disunity and weakness, particularly regarding mobilization efforts (addressing the Chernihiv TCC incident directly and transparently), POW narratives (e.g., refuting claims of abusive commanders, highlighting prisoner treatment discrepancies), civilian testimonials from border regions and conflict zones (including Andriivka), and the narrative about "Latin American mercenaries." This should include direct messaging on successful RF hacker network neutralization and highlight strong UAF morale. Leverage UAF PSYOPS capabilities to target RF military morale.
   • Provide clear and consistent public information on the aftermath of RF strikes, including civilian casualties and damage, to counter RF disinformation and maintain public morale. Specifically, highlight the targeting of civilians in Kramatorsk, Sumy, and Dobropillia, and counter RF narratives blaming UAF AD for civilian damage in Odesa.
   • Address civilian evacuation concerns in Zaporizhzhia Oblast with timely and transparent information and measures.
   • Expedite BDA and recovery efforts in Odesa, Sumy, and Kramatorsk and provide public updates to maintain morale and counter RF narratives, emphasizing the targeting of civilian infrastructure.
   • Monitor and, if appropriate, counter new pro-Ukrainian narratives, such as the German preparedness message, ensuring they align with strategic communication objectives without inadvertently creating undue alarm among the populace.
   • Emphasize stability and control in key cities like Kryvyi Rih through consistent public messaging.
   • Continue and publicize anti-corruption efforts within Ukrainian government and state enterprises, including the one in Poltava.
   • Ensure rapid and transparent response to internal security incidents, such as the shooting in Vasylkiv, to maintain public confidence.
   • Monitor the internal security situation in Kyiv Oblast.
   • Emphasize military personnel welfare through publicizing pension information.
   • Monitor currency exchange rate fluctuations and their potential impact on public confidence.
5. Leverage Diplomatic Avenues:
   • Utilize the upcoming Istanbul negotiations to clearly articulate Ukraine's defensive posture and demand a cessation of hostilities and withdrawal of forces, while simultaneously pushing for prisoner exchanges and humanitarian corridors.
   • Continue active diplomatic engagements to secure long-term military and financial support, emphasizing the critical role of sustained aid in countering RF's multi-domain aggression. Ramstein meeting outcomes should be immediately communicated and followed up.
   • Inform international partners about the confirmed use of North Korean MLRS and advocate for stronger international sanctions and controls on DPRK military exports.
   • Monitor and assess Iran's evolving diplomatic posture, particularly regarding US negotiations, for any potential shifts in broader geopolitical alignments that could impact the conflict.
   • Be prepared to counter RF narratives that leverage international disagreements (e.g., Gaza ceasefire statements) to portray global instability or justify their own actions.
   • Emphasize and coordinate with partners on the impact of sanctions on RF's economic and military capabilities, particularly highlighting the effect of new sanctions on RF's "shadow fleet."
   • Engage with international partners, particularly the EU, regarding Slovakia's increased reliance on Russian gas, assessing the implications for broader European energy security and unity against RF.
   • Actively counter RF's attempts to undermine international support for Ukraine by amplifying figures like Jeffrey Sachs or the Bloomberg article on corruption, by providing accurate information and reaffirming shared values and strategic goals.
   • Use the GUR report on Chinese components in RF UAVs to press international partners for stricter export controls on dual-use technologies to Russia.
   • Engage with the Holy See to understand the implications of proposed dialogue with the Russian Orthodox Church on broader diplomatic efforts.
   • Be prepared to counter RF MFA statements on expanded EU official bans and their broader narrative of Western aggression.
   • Utilize FSB detentions of alleged Ukrainian agents to highlight RF's internal repression and fabricated charges against Ukrainian citizens.
   • Highlight raids on independent Russian media as further evidence of RF's authoritarian nature.
   • Counter RF's exploitation of internal US political issues (Epstein case) and deaths of foreign military figures (Polish General Skrzypczak) for propaganda.